Author Topic: Politics, Religion, etc.  (Read 74433 times)

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4890 on: October 24, 2020, 09:35:01 pm »
How many 538 A+ pollsters are taking into account the shy Trump vote, which will be greater than last time?

This is a small thing...but of all the ways Republicans have rationalized Trump's poor performance in polls, the "shy Trump vote" thing is the silliest. It's not real, there isn't a significant number of shy Trump voters out there. Why would they hide their preference in an anonymous poll? It's just silly that Fox News and talk radio have convinced their followers that this is a real thing.

The problem with the polls in 2016 was that pollsters didn't survey enough non-college educated white voters in the rust belt. And they've adjusted for that. There is no evidence that "shy Trump voters" were part of the polling error. 

The polls in 2016 underestimated Trump...but don't forget that the polls in 2012 underestimated Obama. They were still clearly in his favor going into election day, but he beat expectations in that election. Democrats/Republicans are worried/hopeful that this is 2016 all over again...but it's very possible that pollsters could have over-adjusted and this year will be more like 2012.
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Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4891 on: October 24, 2020, 10:01:40 pm »
There are almost as many non-party affiliated mail ballots returned so far as Republican mail ballots.

4,686,272 Independents.

Bear in mind those numbers are from only the states that report party ID of early votes, and represent less than half of the total returned.  But there's no specific reason to believe the breakdown from the other states would be significantly different.

The Rs have made a big gamble here, betting that they can suppress enough of these mail votes through corrupt SoS and judges to make up for the fact that these votes are banked.  They're relying on a big Election Day turnout when the Trump virus seems to be gearing up for another major spike.

Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4892 on: October 24, 2020, 10:02:34 pm »
This is a small thing...but of all the ways Republicans have rationalized Trump's poor performance in polls, the "shy Trump vote" thing is the silliest. It's not real, there isn't a significant number of shy Trump voters out there. Why would they hide their preference in an anonymous poll? It's just silly that Fox News and talk radio have convinced their followers that this is a real thing.

The problem with the polls in 2016 was that pollsters didn't survey enough non-college educated white voters in the rust belt. And they've adjusted for that. There is no evidence that "shy Trump voters" were part of the polling error. 

The polls in 2016 underestimated Trump...but don't forget that the polls in 2012 underestimated Obama. They were still clearly in his favor going into election day, but he beat expectations in that election. Democrats/Republicans are worried/hopeful that this is 2016 all over again...but it's very possible that pollsters could have over-adjusted and this year will be more like 2012.

The polls in 2016 were closer to the final result than the polls in 2012.

ticohans

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4893 on: October 24, 2020, 10:23:14 pm »
Not trying to pick a fight Tico. But I vote for policy, not personality.

Well, at least the mask is off, and we can now clearly state for yet another “values voter” that it was never actually actually about values.

By the way, pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony, and sloth are not “personality.” The book that is so important to you has another name for these traits.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 10:46:53 pm by ticohans »
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brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4894 on: October 24, 2020, 10:23:14 pm »
They're relying on a big Election Day turnout when the Trump virus seems to be gearing up for another major spike.

It was gearing up a week or two ago. Now it's just spiking.

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4895 on: October 25, 2020, 08:13:39 pm »
538 polling average in Texas (Biden has actually moved to 47.6% since Nate Silver tweeted this image a couple hours ago):



Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4896 on: October 25, 2020, 09:09:41 pm »
Ds have outperformed their polls in TX in the last two elections.

CUBluejays

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4897 on: October 26, 2020, 12:39:55 pm »
Nebraska's second district is going to go for Biden.  Trump is having to have one of his spreader rallies at the Airport because he is doing so poorly in the western parts of Omaha.

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4898 on: October 26, 2020, 12:44:29 pm »
Meanwhile, Biden has decided it’s worth his time to do two stops in Georgia tomorrow only a week before the election. This comes after Harris stopped in Georgia late last week.

No way they’d be in spending that much time in Georgia right now if they didn’t really believe the presidency and/or both Senate seats are truly in play.

Robb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4899 on: October 26, 2020, 01:51:28 pm »
Tico, I am still voting for values. I am voting against the killing of a million "inconvenient" babies next year.  Sorry,  that will always sway me no matter what.  I could go on but we are both entrenched so why bother?  Both sides believe they will blow out the other.  Should make for a fun election night for some.  We'll see. 
« Last Edit: October 26, 2020, 02:01:59 pm by Robb »
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ticohans

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4900 on: October 26, 2020, 04:50:01 pm »
You clearly spoke your priorities earlier when enumerating policies largely related to the preservation of minority-rule and casually writing off Trump’s flagrantly abusive behaviors as “personality.” I understand that the abortion issue also matters to you, but even the callous way you talk about that reveals the hollowness of your arguments, to say nothing of the disconnect between identifying as “pro-life” and then marching in lockstep with this administration.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2020, 04:57:08 pm by ticohans »

ticohans

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4901 on: October 26, 2020, 04:58:36 pm »
And no, election night is not going to be fun for me. It’s either going to be a relief or a nightmare.

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4902 on: October 26, 2020, 05:16:50 pm »
You clearly spoke your priorities earlier when enumerating policies largely related to the preservation of minority-rule and casually writing off Trump’s flagrantly abusive behaviors as “personality.” I understand that the abortion issue also matters to you, but even the callous way you talk about that reveals the hollowness of your arguments, to say nothing of the disconnect between identifying as “pro-life” and then marching in lockstep with this administration.

I’ll never be able to get over the fact that all these “pro-life” people are voting for the guy who set up concentration camps on the border and made permanent family separation official immigration policy.  Or, think that the guy who has presided over this historically botched pandemic response which has directly resulted in thousands of needless deaths (with a lot more to come) should get four more years. Frankly, the argument that this administration is pro-life is so stupid that it can’t be taken seriously.  Pro-life is the excuse for voting for more of this but it’s not the actual reason.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 09:47:08 am by Jack Birdbath »

DelMarFan

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4903 on: October 26, 2020, 10:37:09 pm »
It would be about a lot more than "personality" if a Democratic president were even 1/10 as corrupt as the Trump administration.  But Fox News doesn't say it's okay to believe in Trump's corruption. . . .

Bennett

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4904 on: October 27, 2020, 12:28:07 am »
Rallies Are the Core of Trump’s
Campaign, and a
Font of Lies and Misinformation


A recent rally in Wisconsin was typical. In 90 minutes, President Trump made 131 false or inaccurate statements.

By Linda Qiu and Michael D. Shear
Oct. 26, 2020


President Trump's speech in Janesville, Wis.
Passages highlighted in red are false or inaccurate.


The speech is too large to copy. Click on this link to see the speech


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/us/politics/trump-rallies.html