Author Topic: Politics, Religion, etc.  (Read 99402 times)

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16920
Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4890 on: October 24, 2020, 10:02:34 pm »
This is a small thing...but of all the ways Republicans have rationalized Trump's poor performance in polls, the "shy Trump vote" thing is the silliest. It's not real, there isn't a significant number of shy Trump voters out there. Why would they hide their preference in an anonymous poll? It's just silly that Fox News and talk radio have convinced their followers that this is a real thing.

The problem with the polls in 2016 was that pollsters didn't survey enough non-college educated white voters in the rust belt. And they've adjusted for that. There is no evidence that "shy Trump voters" were part of the polling error. 

The polls in 2016 underestimated Trump...but don't forget that the polls in 2012 underestimated Obama. They were still clearly in his favor going into election day, but he beat expectations in that election. Democrats/Republicans are worried/hopeful that this is 2016 all over again...but it's very possible that pollsters could have over-adjusted and this year will be more like 2012.

The polls in 2016 were closer to the final result than the polls in 2012.