Author Topic: Politics, Religion, etc.  (Read 99343 times)

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #255 on: January 26, 2016, 04:48:32 pm »
The closer we get to Donald Trump winning the nomination, the more I think we should have stuck with the "smoke filled rooms" method of selecting presidential nominees.

I'm still totally mystified on how he's still on top of the polls and looking like he'll soon be winning both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Jes Beard

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #256 on: January 26, 2016, 05:06:03 pm »
I'm still totally mystified on how he's still on top of the polls

How about because there are a shitload of really, really dumb voters out there?

guest61

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #257 on: January 26, 2016, 06:03:17 pm »
I dont give a damn about Isis or any of the mess people want to **** about or truthfully politics in general but if this country is really in need of something new so bad that we're even considering Donald Trump we're in trouble.

The problem is as a God fearing Christian man I doubt Hilary's any better.

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #258 on: January 26, 2016, 06:19:50 pm »
I'm still totally mystified on how he's still on top of the polls and looking like he'll soon be winning both Iowa and New Hampshire.

FWIW, fivethirtyeight.com still has Cruz with a 49% chance to win Iowa compared to Trump's 42% in their polls-plus forecast (in addition to state polls, these forecasts factor in national polls and endorsements).  Of course, I don't think Cruz is any better than Trump.  In some ways, I think he's worse.

davep

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #259 on: January 26, 2016, 06:37:50 pm »
Cruz isn't my favorite, but he is light-years better than Trump.

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #260 on: January 26, 2016, 07:07:01 pm »
I think John Kasich is by far and away the best guy of anyone who's running, but his chances of being elected aren't much better than CurtOne's. 

I think Cruz would be better than Trump, but I still couldn't vote for him.  I think he's a snake oil salesman and a charlatan.  The government shutdown was nothing more than a reckless act of self promotion on his part, and that automatically disqualified him in my eyes.  I also have a lot of trouble with anyone running as a "constitutional" conservative who supported what Kim Davis did in Kentucky.  It's all well and good if you want to run against gay marriage and play to the evangelical crowd, but don't portray yourself as a "strict constitutionalist" and still stand on the same stage with someone who defied a constitutionally decided upon Supreme Court ruling.  He knows how to play to his crowd, and he's pretty much the ultimate in the say anything/do anything to be elected politician.  I seriously even think he'd make Nixon look like a pillar of ethics if he got elected. 

Rubio is my backup pick if/when Kasich loses whatever viability he has left, but I can't say I'm really in love with him either.  Still, he's a better person than Trump or Cruz, there's no way I can vote for another Bush, and he's less likely to say something he'll regret later than Christie.

It's a really ugly field of candidates we have to choose from this year. 
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 07:19:41 pm by JR »

Jes Beard

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #261 on: January 26, 2016, 07:09:55 pm »
The government shutdown was nothing more than a reckless act of self promotion on his part, and that automatically disqualified him in my eyes.

The only thing wrong with the government shutdown was that it ended.

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #262 on: January 26, 2016, 07:19:09 pm »
FWIW, fivethirtyeight.com still has Cruz with a 49% chance to win Iowa compared to Trump's 42% in their polls-plus forecast (in addition to state polls, these forecasts factor in national polls and endorsements).  Of course, I don't think Cruz is any better than Trump.  In some ways, I think he's worse.

Yeah I don't think 538 has a great feel yet on that one.  They had a Trump/Iowa chat today, and the first thing they said right off the bat was, "Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz as the most likely winner in the Hawkeye State, according to our polls-only forecast. (And he’s closed the gap on Cruz in our polls-plus forecast.)"

It seems like they have more confidence in the "polls only" approach, but we'll see. 

Nate Silver did have an interesting theory that we might find out that Trump's support in these polls might be overstated when people finally show up to actually vote.  We'll see how that works out.

CUBluejays

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #263 on: January 26, 2016, 08:30:29 pm »
I never went to a caucus because I was too young or in medical school before I moved out of Iowa, but from my understanding there is a far amount attempting to get people to switch their support to different presidential hopeful. The Cruz/Trump I doubt will switch. I do wonder if Kasich/Bush/Cristie supports will switch to Rubio and let him have a chance to out perform the polls.

I'm with JR. I can't vote for Cruz or Trump for the reasons he stated. If either one get the nomination I will be voting for the whackiest third party candidate.

I did enjoy Trump picking on Bob Vaderplaats (evangelical leader in Iowa) on Twitter.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 08:33:19 pm by CUBluejays »

Playtwo

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #264 on: January 27, 2016, 12:37:42 am »
Bernie!

OkieCubsFan

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #265 on: January 27, 2016, 08:38:26 am »
There's a glimmer of hope in my mind that Trump is just acting bat-**** crazy because he knows it's his best chance of getting elected, and if/once elected, he may turn more normal.  Cruz has already proven that he's legitimately bat-**** crazy as a Senator.

method

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #266 on: January 27, 2016, 10:16:11 am »
Until he starts rounding up brown people and deporting them for being muslims.

ticohans

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #267 on: January 27, 2016, 10:33:37 am »
I'd vote for Bernie before any of Trump, Cruz, or Clinton.

DelMarFan

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #268 on: January 27, 2016, 10:39:20 am »
If it winds up being Bernie against either Trump or Cruz, watch Bloomberg get in.  It's been very entertaining.

davep

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #269 on: January 27, 2016, 01:30:19 pm »
Bernie will not get in.  If Clinton fails, for one reason or another, Biden will be the nominee.

Although there is a lot of talk about a Republican brokered convention, Democratic rules make it quite a bit easier to broker a democratic convention unless one person has a majority of votes bound by primaries.  Substantially fewer voters are bound by rule to primary winners.