Author Topic: Politics, Religion, etc.  (Read 99388 times)

Jes Beard

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #735 on: November 08, 2016, 05:01:33 pm »
The costs of health care were going up rapidly well before the ACA.

Is the ACA the best way to manage the costs of health care?  Probably not, but to point at Obama and say it's all his fault is naive and/or specious.

First, the cost of health care is going up more now than before ObamaCare, and it had actually slowed quite a bit before passage of the law.

Next, and more important, the question is not at the moment the cost of health care, but the cost of health insurance.  And the cost of health insurance is soaring.  Pointing to Obama and saying it is all his fault (or a fault he shares with the members of Congress which passed ObamaCare) is perfectly appropriate.  It makes no sense to point to anyone else.

CurtOne

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #736 on: November 08, 2016, 05:27:40 pm »
Exit polls are showing that 60% of the voters HATED the choice they had.  60% didn't want either candidate.  I'm trying to remember any time in my lifetime that the Presidential choice was that BAD.

The winner is going to have to do more work AFTER the election to prove himself/herself to people.
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CurtOne

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #737 on: November 08, 2016, 05:29:00 pm »
Robb, Lindsay Graham says he wrote in Evan McMullin.  So did I.  Think two votes will do it?
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JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #738 on: November 08, 2016, 08:19:37 pm »
NY Times now has Trump at 88% chance to win Florida.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president/florida

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #739 on: November 08, 2016, 08:22:59 pm »
Looks like this is going to be a long night.

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #740 on: November 08, 2016, 08:42:06 pm »
NY Times projection tool now has Trump at 54% odds to win the election.  Wow.

guest61

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #741 on: November 08, 2016, 08:52:37 pm »
Damn.

Trump's gonna win ain't he?

I ain't got a dog in it though truthfully.

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #742 on: November 08, 2016, 08:54:23 pm »
Fivethirtyeight still has Clinton at 73%.  I hope they're right. 

Nate Silver took a lot of criticism for not taking as strong a position on a Clinton win as other prognosticators.  But so far, his live odds haven't really changed from what he had based on polls, and the race is much more competitive than anyone else thought it would be.  Fivethirtyeight's status might improve even more after tonight.
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Jack Birdbath

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #743 on: November 08, 2016, 09:00:22 pm »
538 won't change much as the forecast now is based on called races and pre-election polls. So, it seems as if there are a lot of states that have actual votes that do not match the polls and, until they are called, they are not included in the 538 model. So, their 70%+ forecast now is probably too optimistic.

JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #744 on: November 08, 2016, 09:00:23 pm »
It looks like Hillary is going to narrowly pull out Virginia.

Trump is going to need to win a state like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota to win.

It looks like Trump is having a great early return in Wayne County, Michigan where Detroit is, though.

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #745 on: November 08, 2016, 09:01:42 pm »
Florida, Michigan, and NC and he wins.  It's going to be really close. What a disaster.

Jack Birdbath

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JR

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #747 on: November 08, 2016, 09:07:03 pm »
Trump up to 64% odds on the NY Times website.

brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #748 on: November 08, 2016, 09:07:27 pm »
538 won't change much as the forecast now is based on called races and pre-election polls. So, it seems as if there are a lot of states that have actual votes that do not match the polls and, until they are called, they are not included in the 538 model. So, their 70%+ forecast now is probably too optimistic.

Yeah, I saw Nate Silver's live blog post about that pop up about 30 seconds after I posted.  Still, fivethirtyeight looks good by showing a lot of uncertainty when other sites were at 85%-99% for Clinton.  That gives me a little hope that their overall forecast (~300 electoral votes for Clinton) will work out.

I really can't believe Trump actually has a chance to win. 

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #749 on: November 08, 2016, 09:09:32 pm »
The fact that it's even close is horrifying.  This is the guy endorsed by the KKK and Nazi's and he's a **** hair away from the White House.