Author Topic: Predictions  (Read 47267 times)

Deeg

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #555 on: November 25, 2017, 11:39:14 pm »
You don't have to get personal - it's a serious question.  Are there specific "experts" who've flat-out predicted Darvish and/or Cain to the Cubs?  I can't recall a single one.

CurtOne

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #556 on: November 25, 2017, 11:52:01 pm »
Yes, there are.  I don't recall which one predicted Cain to Seattle or Cubs, but several have suggested Darvish to Cubs, particularly if Arrieta signs elsewhere.  I get emails from MLB, Insider, Yahoo Sports, CBS, Roto...I lose track who said what, but I've tried to absorb as much as possible.  For fun, I put together a list of my own predictions based on all the input.  I don't expect many of them to happen.  If I hit 40% I'll be thrilled.  I was hoping others would have the fun of making their own predictions.  For example, here's one online source I felt had some strong arguments for Ohtani: http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/262375606/mariners-looking-to-sign-shohei-ohtani/?partnerId=ed-12096726-1033633093

I do recall the writer who suggested Cain to the Cubs as assuming Almora would go in a trade for pitching. 

And, yes, the Reb shot was low.  I apologize.

Deeg

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #557 on: November 26, 2017, 01:30:05 am »
Well, I suppose if you cast a wide enough net you'll find someone who considers themselves an expert predict pretty much every possible FA signing.  I just don't recall any of the bigger names predicting Cain or Darvish to the Cubs.  And with good reason, because I don't think there's much chance either is going to happen.


Ron

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #559 on: November 26, 2017, 08:36:08 am »
Curt - Not to nitpick, but in my quick skimming of those articles none of them seem to "predict" the Cubs end up with Darvish. Rather they tend to make a case for why the Cubs "need" or match up with Darvish.  I would be shocked if they sign Darvish, or even give a serious effort to do so.

CurtOne

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #560 on: November 26, 2017, 09:19:46 am »
The question was whether Darvish and the Cubs had been linked at all.  If you need picks, on something that I thought would be a fun exercise, try this link:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2017/11/20/16680950/mlb-free-agency-2017-otani-darvish-jd-martinez

Ron

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #561 on: November 26, 2017, 05:51:10 pm »
The question was whether Darvish and the Cubs had been linked at all.  If you need picks, on something that I thought would be a fun exercise, try this link:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2017/11/20/16680950/mlb-free-agency-2017-otani-darvish-jd-martinez

Very weird that only one of these 16 guys predict the Cubs will sign Alex Cobb, while 12 predict the Cubs will sign either Arrieta or Darvish.  I guess this is simply a function of how ignorant Yankee fans are about other teams, or at least the Cubs.

CUBluejays

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #562 on: November 26, 2017, 06:03:46 pm »
MLBTrade rumors had Darvish to the Cubs.

People are just guessing at this point. It would be nice if things started moving.

Bennett

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #563 on: November 26, 2017, 06:07:39 pm »
Quote
The heat gets turned up on the Hot Stove at baseball's annual Winter Meetings from Dec. 10-14 in Orlando.

craig

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #564 on: November 27, 2017, 12:37:48 pm »
Who is going to pursue Darvish?  Is it possible that Cubs might consider him under-valued, and that his value-per-dollar will end up actually being fairly good?  Or that they see things in his game where they think they can get a better-than-shown version?  That Benedict's "5 Levels of WHY" sees some reasons to think he can be a strong #2 guy, and maybe there aren't that many teams who are eager to compete for him?   Beats me, I'm just wondering whether maybe the demand for him won't be as vigorous as is assumed. 

Deeg

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #565 on: November 27, 2017, 12:44:12 pm »
Maybe they're thinking that, but it's hard to imagine he'll be that undervalued when he's clearly the best SP on the market.  There may be some question as to his performance in big games, but his stuff is elite.

craig

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #566 on: November 27, 2017, 01:25:26 pm »
I admit I wonder there, deeg.  I haven't seen him much, other than the World Series which I realize is not super representative.  But I'm not sure a guy totally flips his approach...

So, what I seemed to see him using was basically curveball/breaking ball, with an occasional fastball thrown in as a change-of-pace.  But it looked to me as if he didn't have much confidence in the fastball, and used that only as his 3rd or 4th pitch.  Yes, of course I understand that a great curve is harder to hit than a fastball, and a lot of hitters would prefer 93-94 mph fastballs rather than spin.  But I guess just from brief appearance, it looked like he believed his fastball was an ineffective pitch that he was scared to throw. 

I don't know the guy, and I understand that his fastball velocity is good. 

So, my question is, is he always scared of his fastball, or was that just in the playoffs? 

I guess I'm thinking that for curve and offspeed and spin to be most deadly, and for stuff to be "elite", that a guy still needs an excellent fastball that he can locate and throw for strikes without getting killed; and that can be used to keep guys off-balance on the curve, or to overpower guys if they do insist on just sitting curveball.   

Deeg

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #567 on: November 27, 2017, 02:14:53 pm »
Darvish has never been afraid of his fastball - it's just that he has 6 or 7 pitches and likes to use all of them.  He averaged 94 last year and that's certainly plenty to be effective.

One of the things the Dodgers reportedly did was force him to cut back to mostly 3 pitches - who knows, maybe that messed with his head.  Also there was that "slick ball" issue, where Verlander said he couldn't even use his breaking pitch in the world series after a while.  Darvish is a very "handsy" pitcher (maybe the most in baseball) so that could have been a factor.

Jes Beard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #568 on: November 29, 2017, 05:17:08 pm »
Happ for Salazar was what was proposed by a writer.  The writer admitted that the Indians would likely have to add more.

A while back, I mentioned this guy as a possible Cubs target:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha

He threw a total of 173 innings this year at age 22.  I would look for arm trouble in the very near future.

davep

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #569 on: November 29, 2017, 08:48:12 pm »
Someone had to step in and fill the void.  Jes can't do everything by himself.
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