Bleacher Bums Forum

88-74

76-86, and a firesale...

I'll be rooting for Robb this season. 

I'll say 77 wins. I'm feeling pessimistic about these guys, but am hoping for better.  Pleasantly surprise me, Cubs.

Cubs fall out of contention and trade Bryant to the White Sox for Eloy...(and Bryant signs long term contract with Sox)

What's your prediction of who goes and stays?

I say Javy and Bryant go and Contreras and Rizzo stay.

Im not as confident on Contreras as I am Rizzo.

Fair concern, for sure P2. I'm definitely concerned about Bryant. Guy has as much talent as almost anyone in MLB, but he's going to want to get paid like the 6-7 WAR guy he was first 3 years of his career vs the 3-4 WAR guy he's been since.

I think Rizzo has more value to the Cubs than most other teams, given his established leadership voice. The market has been soft for aging 1Bmen, so I doubt he'll cost a fortune. I think we're pretty likely to resign him, and I like that idea. Rizzo is likely to age more gracefully than other 1Bmen given the contact skills and defense, and him and Ross seem like a great pair to lead the clubhouse.

Baez has obviously made a lot of money, but his earnings to date pale next to the 9-figure contract he'll get this winter. However, he's also hitting the market at a rough time, as his plate discipline metrics skew the wrong way (swinging strike rate up/contact rate down each of last 4 years) in the midst of a historic FA SS class. Hard to imagine Baez in a different uniform, but I'm skeptical he'll be the best SS investment this winter. Also don't know how many teams will be itching to dole out hundreds of millions to SS's this winter. Does one of the FA's end up losing the game of musical chairs?

All this to say I don't need the Cubs to resign any of them, but I need them to spend some money. Like if Arenado opts out, go get him. If they don't sign Baez, go get Semien or Seager or Correa or Story (or see if one of those guys will sign to play 3B a la Machado). If they don't sign Rizzo, go get Freeman.

Cubs 2021 payroll obligations about $155M. For their market, that's at least $30M too low. Their 2022 payroll obligations are about $70M (and that goes down to $42M in 2023, then $5M in 2024 - this is the lowest total for any team with payroll commitments in 2024). They should have $115M to play with this winter, if not more, given how precipitously their payroll continues to fall off into '23-'24. GO SPEND SOME MONEY.

I think the evidence suggests Rizzo's so-called leadership value is comically overrated.  I doubt he has much trade value but I certainly wouldn't sign him to a 9-figure contract.  Lowball him and I'm not so sure anyone would beat it.  If they do let him walk and take the pick.

Kimbrel and Chafin should be locks to go.  Davies, maybe Hendricks.  And one of Bryant or Baez, though Bryant's perpetual injury woes make dealing him a challenge.