Author Topic: Predictions  (Read 47456 times)

shasson

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #195 on: March 26, 2013, 10:28:07 pm »
71

Dihard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #196 on: March 31, 2013, 11:31:17 pm »
68

Cactus

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #197 on: April 01, 2013, 12:18:42 pm »
How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep   

Entries are now closed   

Jes Beard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #198 on: April 01, 2013, 12:54:27 pm »
Only 23 games between the most positive and most negative predictions.

Only one prediction above .500, and only two at .500 or better.

Midpoint of the predictions -- 70.5 wins.

Most popular predictions -- 67, 69 and 71, each with three votes, and each less than the exact mid-point in predictions.

Most predictions were for less than 70 wins.

Most predictions were for more than 68 wins.

Average of all predictions -- 74.56 wins.

Of course, all of this is jesmath, so take from it what you will....

JR

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #199 on: April 01, 2013, 03:42:40 pm »
I'd like to change my prediction to 162-0.

Cactus

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #200 on: May 15, 2013, 10:22:20 pm »
Quote
59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep   
Wednesday night’s game marks the one-quarter point of the season.   The Cubs record of 17-23 projects to 69-93 for the season.

Robb

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #201 on: June 23, 2013, 01:39:07 pm »
The Cubs are on target to win 66 games yet their starters have overachieved.  What will happen when that strength returns to the mean through trade/law of averages/injury? I'm starting to think my prediction of 66 wins was generous.

brjones

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #202 on: June 23, 2013, 02:34:52 pm »
If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1 run games.

Robb

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #203 on: June 23, 2013, 05:12:58 pm »
You're remembering these are the Cubs right?

StrikeZone

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #204 on: June 23, 2013, 11:57:37 pm »
If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1 run games.

With that bullpen?

brjones

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #205 on: June 24, 2013, 09:41:13 am »
The outcome of a one run game is mostly random.  Just like the Orioles didn't have a magical, sustainable skill to win one run games last year, the Cubs don't have the opposite "skill" of losing one run games.

Jes Beard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #206 on: June 24, 2013, 12:48:27 pm »
The outcome of a one run game is mostly random.

Uh.... not really.

Teams which have bad bullpens have trouble holding onto saves when they are on the road and will lose games by one run when the run scores without anyone out, or only one out or even with two outs, or they will come back in the top of the 9th, but still fall one run short of tying it.

In other words, they will score fewer runs, on fewer outs.  The better team, the winning team, would often end up scoring more than the one run needed to win it if they played out all 27 of their outs.

In other words, the game is set up so bad teams lose by "just one run" far more often than they would if games were played out fully.

If games were in fact played out fully (and with the winning team continuing to try to score more runs until the last out), bad teams (like the Cubs) would lose no more games, but they would lose fewer of them by just one run.  If every out available in a game were played out, THEN there might be some randomness to one-run losses.

But that is not the case.

Cactus

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #207 on: July 03, 2013, 12:50:48 am »
How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep     
A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us expected.

Jes Beard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #208 on: July 03, 2013, 08:44:05 am »
A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us expected.

Yes, it is.  And that would include many of us who predicted less than 70 wins for the season.  We are now beginning to make trades of players who are at all productive, meaning that just like last year, the 2nd half record is likely to be uglier than the first half.  Last year the Cubs reached the halfway point at 31-50, and then went 30-51 the rest of the year, but the 2nd half also benefited from a Rizzo callup.  This year there is no similarly productive hitter in the minors to improve things.

brjones

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #209 on: July 03, 2013, 08:57:42 am »
I predict that even with some selling off, the Cubs will be better than 35-46 the rest of the way, and they'll finish somewhere in the 72-75 win range.  They've been a far better team than their record shows in the first half...so even with some selling off, they can be better than that in the second half.