Author Topic: Predictions  (Read 47582 times)

jacey1

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #420 on: September 23, 2015, 01:05:19 pm »
They outdid what I thought was realistic for them this year..GLAD

EightyTwo

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #421 on: October 04, 2015, 04:57:09 pm »
No one picked 97 wins???

Ron

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #422 on: October 04, 2015, 04:57:37 pm »
No one picked 97 wins???

Shocking, isn't it.

wmljohn

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #423 on: October 08, 2015, 07:34:21 am »
Was my 101 closest?

With Playoff wins they could still get there.  I hope they pass it.   ;D

Robert L

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #424 on: October 08, 2015, 08:34:35 am »
Was my 101 closest?

With Playoff wins they could still get there.  I hope they pass it.   ;D

I hope under :)

wmljohn

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #425 on: October 16, 2015, 06:58:48 pm »
OK.  Now they have 101 wins.  I win.  No one predicted more so I will be the closest when they end the season at 109 wins.

GO CUBS.

BTW who do I collect the cash prize from?

davep

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #426 on: October 16, 2015, 07:13:55 pm »
I predicted 102 wins, but CurtOne edited and changed my post because he is evil.

wmljohn

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #427 on: October 16, 2015, 07:31:37 pm »
And that only cost me 5% of the cash prize... ;D

davep

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #428 on: October 16, 2015, 07:51:39 pm »
I was wrong.  Greed is not evil.

Bennett

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #429 on: October 17, 2015, 11:46:28 am »
Quote from: Bruce Miles
In battle of sabermetrics, Cubs clobber Mets

NEW YORK -- Back in the 1980s, the sabermetrics revolution really took off, thanks to Bill James publishing his annual Baseball Abstract.

In one of his editions, he came up with a formula for predicting the winner of postseason series. Given the advancements in sabermetrics today, this formula seems quaint. Let's put it to work for the National League championship series between the Cubs and Mets:

• Give 1 point per half-game difference in record. The Cubs finished the regular season 97-65 while the Mets were 90-72. That's 14 points to the Cubs.

• Give 3 points to the team with more runs scored. Award 3 to the Cubs.

• Give 14 points to the team with fewer doubles. (Back in the day, James warned "not to bet a dime on a team that hits a lot of doubles.") Award 14 to the Cubs.

• Give 12 points to the team with more triples. That's 12 for the Cubs.

• Give 10 points to the team with more home runs. The Mets get on the board with 10 points.

• Give 8 points to the team with the lower batting average. Each team hit .244, so that's a wash.

• Give 8 points to the team with fewer errors. The Mets get 8.

• Give 7 points to the team that turned more double plays. That's 7 for the Mets.

• Give 7 points to the team whose pitchers walked more batters. The Cubs get the 7.

• Give 19 points to the team with more shutouts. Award 19 to the Cubs.

• Give 15 points to the team with the lower ERA. The Cubs edged the Mets, 3.36 to 3.43 to give the Cubs 15 points.

• Give 12 points to the team in postseason play more recently. That would be 2008 for the Cubs to 2006 for the Mets, although both teams have changed completely. But by the formula, the Cubs get 12 points.

• Give 12 points to the team that led in head-to-head competition. The Cubs swept the season series from the Mets, but four of those games were in May, and three were in July. The Mets look quite a bit different now, but the Cubs get the 12 points.

Adding it all up, the Cubs win by a landslide, 101 points to 25.

Does it mean anything for the NLCS? Maybe. Maybe not, but let's see how it all adds up when the games are played.

Jes Beard

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #430 on: October 17, 2015, 05:51:03 pm »
Give 8 points to the team with the lower batting average.

More than a bit counter-intuitive.

brjones

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #431 on: November 18, 2015, 05:52:37 pm »
Arrieta is going to win the NL Cy Young this year. 

AndyMacFAIL

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #432 on: November 18, 2015, 06:44:27 pm »
88 wins.  Wainwright has arm problems all year and Molina shows his age.  In Pittsburgh, the loss of Martin hurts them more than expected--Liriano is especially impacted.  Cubs win the division with the Pirates and Cardinals taking the two wild cards.


Nothing like patting yourself on the back.   ::)     ::) 

Just don't cherry pick the predictions you got right.   ;D     ;D






davep

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #433 on: November 18, 2015, 06:46:59 pm »
I don't know how many predictions BR made, but picking Arrieta to win the Cy Young award was certainly not the odds on favorite.

brjones

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Re: Predictions
« Reply #434 on: November 18, 2015, 07:05:55 pm »
Just don't cherry pick the predictions you got right.   ;D     ;D

But it's more fun to cherry pick the good ones.