78-84
Last year's 248 2/3 innings takes it toll on Jake Arrieta as he falls to 16-12 with an ERA near 3.50. The sophomore jinx claims one of Russell/Bryant/Schwarber. Zobrist & Heyward have solid seasons but Anthony Rizzo drops to 26 HRs, 86 RBI, .260/.356/.466 with an OPS of .823. Either Lester or Lackey spend significant time on the DL. The Chicago Cubs finish 3rd in the NL Central, 7 games back of the Pirates, as the Cardinals pull another rabbit out of the hat to win the division. Since it's an even number year, the San Francisco Giants win another World Series title. This time over the New York Yankees as Jeff Samardzija gets a ring.
I hate saying this, but for whatever reason, I have this ominous feeling that things might not go quite as well as some of the hype we're getting. If Arrieta missed half the season, for instance, we're going from a World Series favorite to a team that has to fight and claw for a wild card spot pretty quickly.
There's a little bit of this 2004 kind of feeling I have right now. That team looked great on paper heading into the season and was 5 outs away from the World Series, but all it took was some pitching staff injuries and an offense that was K prone and too reliant on solo home runs to keep that team from going anywhere. (Granted this year's offense has a little more speed and does a better job getting on base, but still, it's a K prone, HR reliant offense.)
Hopefully that 2004 feeling goes away pretty quickly, though.