Bleacher Bums Forum

Amaya should get every opportunity to show whether or not he’s ready to assume a primary catching role next season, and Barnhart should have no impact on that.

Amaya also ranks well in framing, though the sample size is obviously too small to put any real stock in.

So, it's been fun following this exchange. Just one question: you aren't actually suggesting that a player's mental state at the plate doesn't matter or that it doesn't vary depending on circumstances (such as the player or the team being in a slump) are you?

Consider how the thread on this subject began. It was how to explain Cubs awful clutch hitting performance (and actually on weekend games because Cubs are winning weekday games) compared to hitting okay rest of the time in “non-clutch.”

So, Sutcliffe on broadcast and Curt here, posited it’s hitters “trying to do too much” in clutch. Let’s call it TTDTM syndrome. That’s the explanation.

Then, Dave posted Amaya’s remarks about TTDTM syndrome pertinent to his hits yesterday in NON-clutch situations (bases empty and runner on 1B) as perhaps supporting the notion—a huge leap from clutch to non-clutch, the latter being not-a-problem for Cubs.

Then, Ron asks if I’m saying that hitters “mental state at the plate doesn’t matter.” Another massive leap beyond the hitting clutch/non-clutch discussion that began the thread and lumping TTDTM into the far broader matter of “mental state,” the latter presumably including confidence, acuity regarding how being pitched, etc.

No. No. No.

Only talking about the notion that TTDTM is the explanation for Cubs not hitting in the clutch (on weekends).

Good for Amaya that it helps him do well by thinking about not TTDTM as he comes up with bases empty or with a runner on 1B and of course mental state is important in baseball (and most everything else in life!), as we recently discussed regarding Mervis confidence level/possible demotion.

Put another way, it’s helpful to stay on point.

If somebody can explain how and why TTDTM seems to affect Cubs clutch only on weekends and how and why 29 other clubs comparatively avoid TTDTM syndrome to far lesser extent than Cubs, I’m keenly interested.

Aren't the metrics a bit fallible because a human has to make judgements on catchability, fieldability, range, throwing speed and balance, etc.?

To a certain extent this is true.

However, where these metrics rely on input from many more individuals, that diversity certainly helps mitigate a lot of the error that will creep in from just a single observer's point of view.

I'd also suspect that at least some of these metrics are incorporating more objective, data-driven methodologies. For example, Statcast metrics can rate a defender's reaction time, acceleration, route quality, etc.; and measure that against batted ball data like launch angle, exit velo, etc. I'm not a data scientist, so I couldn't tell you how best to compile all these measurements into a meaningful statistic, but you can be sure that's happening at least at the club level.

Not if you believe at all in advanced defensive metrics.  Wisdom is dead last in DRS among 3B with at least 200 innings and 33rd of 39 among qualified 3B in OAA.

.... but you can be sure that's happening at least at the club level.

I assume that the imprecision resulting from human judgment is relatively modest. 

I wish we had access to club-level defensive metrics.  Re Wisdom, deeg lists DRS and OAA, both of which agree that Wisdom is bad: but one has him #1 versus #7 in badness. 

I wonder what club metrics show, and Cubs' in particular?  How much scatter there is among different clubs?  To public ones like DRS and OAA fall well within the range of predominant club evals, or do they fall variably outside?  How divergent is Cub calculations from those of other teams?  We can't answer questions like that, but I wish I could.   

All I know is…if the metrics are suggesting that Wisdom ‘22 and Wisdom ‘23 are identical defensively, then the metrics are flawed somewhere…and I watch every game.

Watching on TV has its limitations assessing defense, seems to me.

Camera view starts with the shot from CF camera and then cuts to ball in play….and we miss a lot in terms of what defender is doing or not doing in the interim.

Much of the time, we can’t really see a first step in relation to where and how hard a ball is hit.

Sometimes, watching a replay helps but is limited too often. For OFers, can’t see much of anything until WAY after ball already is in play. IF we’re lucky, replay will be a long shot of the field and then can get a better picture of the OF jump and route to the ball. Seeing more of that on broadcasts in recent times but not nearly enough.

Sitting in the ballpark—if we’re paying attention—and in a good seat, is dramatically superior to judging defensive performance than watching TV, seems to me. Sure, teams use video to make assessments but certainly have more sophisticated and multiple views than we see on a typical TV broadcast.

Strikes me as fine to mix our TV observations with the less-than-perfect defensive metrics, but if the metrics are out of whack with our observations, my inclination is to revisit the personal observations as maybe not seeing everything that the metrics are picking up.

Phil Cuzzi’s strike zone tonight is horrible. He’s missed at least 6 pitches away to RHH, and Snell is taking full advantage of it.

Ross just got tossed.

Cuzzi is awful.