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General Category => Bleacher Bums Forum => Topic started by: Dave23 on August 03, 2015, 09:21:49 am


Title: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 03, 2015, 09:21:49 am
It's still a top system...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 03, 2015, 07:47:44 pm
LaStella played for 2 AB last Wednesday, got pulled mid-game, sat for three games, returned yesterday.  I think he played the whole game yesterday, and now he's playing again today.  (2-for-2 thus far today, 4-for-8 thus far.)  With Russell able to cover SS, LaStella might be an interesting alternative to Herrera.  Although I think Maddon loves Hererra, so there's no urgency. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 03, 2015, 07:52:25 pm
Not sure if Pierce Johnson will pitch into the 7th, and if so maybe he'll give up some runs then. 

But a funny think on his "last ten games" stats summary is that he's allowed exactly one earned run in all but one of his last 8 starts.  On the season, he's ten starts, ten earned runs.  And only one of the ten have allowed more than one earned run. 

One HR today, only 3K/2BB, so not that exciting a line.  But somehow he seems to keep getting kinda lucky somehow. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 03, 2015, 08:19:58 pm
Isn't it now about time to move Pierce Johnson up to AAA?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 03, 2015, 09:10:12 pm
Isn't it now about time to move Pierce Johnson up to AAA?

Not when his success is just a result of being kinda lucky somehow.'
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robert L on August 03, 2015, 10:56:47 pm
Baez 3 run Double to give the I Cubs 12-10 lead  in the ninth
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robert L on August 03, 2015, 11:03:50 pm
I Cubs win Edwards the with save 
 http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_03_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 03, 2015, 11:04:11 pm
Rubi Silva is funny.  Entering today, he was hitting .281.....



with an OBP of .295!   4 unintentional walks in 284 AB. 

74:5 K/BB ratio. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 03, 2015, 11:12:32 pm
Edwards with a 1-walk-1-K inning to save the Iowa victory. 

La Stella, in his first back-to-back games, got pulled after 3 PA.  Presumably bringing him along slowly, ala spring training.  But could be a promotion, too, I'd imagine.  As PR mentioned, if he was healthy and in a hitting groove, (neither of which is probably even remotely true presently), having somebody who could give Castro and Bryant some days off might be helpful.  Both for the offense, since both are struggling so badly.  And perhaps helpful for either one, perhaps a a few days off might help one of them to get going again. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 04, 2015, 10:02:09 am
Cubs Den had Johnson throwing 90-92 on the stadium gun yesterday.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Pistol on August 04, 2015, 11:34:25 am
Nice to see Baez not only hitting but hitting in the clutch.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 04, 2015, 11:49:45 am
Cubs Den had Johnson throwing 90-92 on the stadium gun yesterday.

That's pretty pedestrian. 

NSBB has some guy at Blackburn's effective start earlier this week.  Had him 88-90, 89-91 type range on his fastball.  The scout liked the easy arm action and the location/sink.  But at least on that game, again not very fast. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 04, 2015, 12:12:27 pm
Blackburn 88-91 on his sinker isn't horrible if he can locate really well and has a change up/slow curve to go with it.  If he can't do that then his margin for error is very small.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on August 04, 2015, 03:30:22 pm
Was thinking about Johnson's outing and how much one should buy into FIP.

6 IP 4H 1 HR 1 ER 2 walks and 3 strikeouts translates as a well below-average performance.

(13*1 + 3*2 - 2 * 3) / 6

i.e., an ERA slightly more than 2 runs above average.  Ouch!

Should that quiet all the talk about a  promotion to AAA?

Hasn't Johnson always thrown 90-92 with a few 93s sprinkled in?





Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 04, 2015, 03:42:04 pm
WHIP of exactly 1.0

ERA of 1.5

If FIP shows that to be below average, my first reaction would be to question FIP.

Or at least FIP applied to that small a sample size.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 04, 2015, 03:45:27 pm
FIP in small sample sizes isn't great.  FIP in the minor leagues isn't as useful either.  Preventing hard contact for a pitcher in the minor leagues is a skill, so DIP isn't as useful as it is in the majors.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 04, 2015, 08:26:53 pm
Erick Leal has no-hit Kane County thru 9 tonight...the game is a scoreless tie...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 04, 2015, 10:13:16 pm
Baez homers.
Contreras 3 hits, leading the league in average. 

Cease with 3 walks and two wild pitches in the first inning.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 04, 2015, 10:31:33 pm
Candelario has been terrific so far at Tennessee.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 04, 2015, 11:52:51 pm
I'd really like to see Contreras added to the roster and called up for the month of September. He wouldn't see much game action with three other catchers on the roster, but he could learn a lot from Ross and Montero. The $85K or so that he'd earn wouldn't mean much to the Cubs, but it would surely be appreciated by a minor league player who probably didn't receive a huge signing bonus.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 12:19:42 am
I'd really like to see Contreras added to the roster and called up for the month of September. He wouldn't see much game action with three other catchers on the roster, but he could learn a lot from Ross and Montero. The $85K or so that he'd earn wouldn't mean much to the Cubs, but it would surely be appreciated by a minor league player who probably didn't receive a huge signing bonus.

Contreras will be a six-year minor league free agent at end of season and, therefore, would seem to be a lock to be added to the 40-man after the season--given what he's doing now. He passed thru the Rule 5 undrafted last winter.

But, hard to see an opening for him on the 40-man in September. Cubs currently at 38, but when LaStella off the 60-day, that's 39, and presumably if/when Richard passes thru revocable waivers shortly and consents to an option to Iowa, he goes back on 40-man, on option, and roster will be full at 40. Also possible that Cubs may trade for somebody getting thru waivers in August--who would have to go on 40-man. Finally, in event Cubs wanted a 4th catcher, more likely to be Teagarden--who has big league experience--rather than a AA guy.  Either would have to be added to 40-man, as Teagarden is on outright.

In short, lots of numbers hurdles.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 05, 2015, 01:34:26 am
Christian Villanueva is on the 40-man, but will be out of options in 2016. He has no chance of either a September call-up or a spot on the Winter roster. They could also release one or more of Beeler, Jokisch, Medina or Schlitter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 02:30:57 am
Christian Villanueva is on the 40-man, but will be out of options in 2016. He has no chance of either a September call-up or a spot on the Winter roster. They could also release one or more of Beeler, Jokisch, Medina or Schlitter.

Hope you're right about a Contreras call-up---it would be interesting, but there are hurdles.

Beeler and Jokisch have 2016 options. Possible that either could be taken off winter 40-man and exposed to a waiver claim or the Rule 5. (No reason to "release" them as they would not be 6-year minor league free agents). But, considering depth issues in upper minors, seems unlikely at this point. We'll see how off-season 40-man shakes out soon. Always a fun topic.

Exposing either to a waiver claim in September to get Contreras to majors this season?  Don't see that. Perhaps to make room for an August trade guy? Maybe, but not for Contreras to sit and get service time.

Villanueva seems a good bet to be traded in off-season. He has some value. But why expose Villanueva to a waiver claim in September just to bring up Contreras to sit/service time in September.? Don't see that either.

 Schlitter is doing okay at Iowa, but Medina seems ahead of him now in the Iowa shuttle. We know there will be September pitching call-ups. Richards (if not claimed), Wada, who else? Edwards? Could be. Rosscup. Guessing we see either Schlitter or Medina, maybe both. If not, to get Contreras up? Don't see it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2015, 09:36:02 am
Beeler and Jokisch have 2016 options. Possible that either could be taken off winter 40-man and exposed to a waiver claim or the Rule 5. (No reason to "release" them as they would not be 6-year minor league free agents). But, considering depth issues in upper minors, seems unlikely at this point. We'll see how off-season 40-man shakes out soon. Always a fun topic.

Exposing either to a waiver claim in September to get Contreras to majors this season?  Don't see that. Perhaps to make room for an August trade guy? Maybe, but not for Contreras to sit and get service time.

Villanueva seems a good bet to be traded in off-season. He has some value. But why expose Villanueva to a waiver claim in September just to bring up Contreras to sit/service time in September.? Don't see that either.

 Schlitter is doing okay at Iowa, but Medina seems ahead of him now in the Iowa shuttle. We know there will be September pitching call-ups. Richards (if not claimed), Wada, who else? Edwards? Could be. Rosscup. Guessing we see either Schlitter or Medina, maybe both. If not, to get Contreras up? Don't see it.

I think next year's rotation depth will be interesting.  Assuming no trades, Pierce Johnson, Rob Zastrynzy and Ryan Williams will be at AAA.  Edwards might be in the bullpen or rotation as well.  Turner could be the 6th guy/long man with the Cubs.  Underwood, Tseng, Blackburn, Skulina? and Torrez could be in AA.  It might be to the point where fringe guys like Beeler and Jokisch won't be needed.

I think Villaneva could get you a bullpen guy or maybe somebody like Utley as a PTBNL, so I doubt they will release him.

The Sept callups will be really interesting.  How many bullpen guys will get call?  Olt, Baez, Szczur would seem like the position players that will come up.  Maybe a cup of coffee for Villanueva too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 05, 2015, 09:57:56 am
Guy on NSBB: 
Quote
davell wrote:
Miggy is evidently impressed with Contreras, as he thinks he's a future MLB All Star Catcher. Said wait till you see his defense and arm.


Contreras is 49K/42BB/338AB, <13%K-per-PA. 
BABIP is .375.  Don't think he'll carry either that K-rate, walk rate, or BABIP to the majors, obviously. 



But if his defense is good, seems like a pretty valuable asset.  He'll open next season at age 23. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2015, 10:10:44 am
Baez 1-5, HR 0K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Candelario 2-4, HR, 2B .353/.382/.549 (3 BB, 5K 51 AB)

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Berg 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K (2.35 ERA)

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Happ 1-5, 3K (.278/.333/.361 at SB 36 AB)

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_kccafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

VZL

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Wilson 2-3 1 BB
Cease 1.1, 0, 2, 2, 4, 3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_cubrok_pdrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

DSL

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_04_metrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on August 05, 2015, 01:18:50 pm
thanks CBJ
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 05, 2015, 07:37:03 pm
Mr BABIP Contreras has two hits already.

Mr. anti-BABIP Almora also has both two hits and a walk.  Who'd have guessed that a biggish guy with a 34K/21BB/289AB ratio would be needing a hot day to reach .290 OBP.  If I'm calculating correctly, his two hits now get him to .255 BABIP.  Maybe it's all just bad luck?  Maybe a Camp Colvin and he'll do better next year?  Maybe it's just a lot of groundouts to 2B?  Maybe it's just a very slow bat? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 05, 2015, 09:44:19 pm
And maybe he is simply never going to be an even tolerable hitter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 10:09:28 pm
Mr BABIP Contreras has two hits already. ....

Contreras with four hits by end of game.

He is 20 for his last 36. Wow.

This a guy who will be a six-year minor league free agent at end of season (a misnomer because it takes 7 seasons, 6 full and a partial season, typically). Of course, he will be rostered this time around.

Will be interesting to see if he develops as a back-up, or a Nick Hundley-type regular, or something better or worse.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 10:29:41 pm

....Mr. anti-BABIP Almora also has both two hits and a walk.  Who'd have guessed that a biggish guy with a 34K/21BB/289AB ratio would be needing a hot day to reach .290 OBP.  If I'm calculating correctly, his two hits now get him to .255 BABIP.  Maybe it's all just bad luck?  Maybe a Camp Colvin and he'll do better next year?  Maybe it's just a lot of groundouts to 2B?  Maybe it's just a very slow bat? 

We think of Billy McKinney as being really young for AA, but Almora only four months older than McKinney. That's the saving grace, maybe.

Slow bat? This is what BA said pre-season about Almora. He has "a line drive bat with present strength, fine hand-eye coordination, bat speed to catch up to good fastballs, and average raw power."

Yeah, this is optimistic I suppose, it would be nice if he can be a .720 OPS guy (say, 280-320-400), with low Ks, who can bat #9 in Maddon's lineup, and play gold glove caliber CF defense. We can use a guy like that. Patience. patience.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 11:05:53 pm
I think next year's rotation depth will be interesting.  Assuming no trades, Pierce Johnson, Rob Zastrynzy and Ryan Williams will be at AAA.  Edwards might be in the bullpen or rotation as well.  Turner could be the 6th guy/long man with the Cubs.  Underwood, Tseng, Blackburn, Skulina? and Torrez could be in AA.  It might be to the point where fringe guys like Beeler and Jokisch won't be needed....

I don't know, but 2016 AAA depth seems thin, doesn't it?

Zastryzny with only 49 IP so far this season and basically 4.60 ERAs last year in A ball and this abbreviated season for him. Not so sure he sure if gets AAA to open. Williams just getting to AA recently. Turner out if options, so won't be easy getting him to AAA. Johnson, yes, about time. Wonder if Edwards more of a serious big club bullpen candidate than Iowa starter? Doesn't seem like any of the MB starters will be jumping to Iowa any time soon. Perhaps will even see AAAA type starters signed from outside to fill some rotation space at Iowa.

Jokisch seems likely to get another look in spring training after all the injuries this season. Maybe Cubs didn't like what they saw of Beeler in his Cubs starts. Suppose he's on bubble. Both will have a final option year in 2016.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2015, 11:16:46 pm
Turner will have to be with the Cubs or they will likely lose him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2015, 11:40:47 pm
Yeah, what an opportunity Turner had this season to establish himself, but for injuries.

Might not get that chance again in 2016 if front office gets busy in off-season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 06, 2015, 12:09:47 am
If Edwin Jackson can stick past the All Star game, Turner will get a shot if he's healthy. He has talent, too much to let go for free.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 04:38:51 am
Baez: 0-5, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 4-5, 2B, 3 RBI

Almora: 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tseng: 7-4-2-2-0-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, 2 RBI, SB, K

Happ: 1-3, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_kccafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Peguero: 4-4, 2 SB

Pieters: 1-4, 2 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_drxrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hernandez: 2-1-0-0-0-6,    11 IP, 3 BB, 18 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_dodrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on August 06, 2015, 11:28:51 am
Hopefully, Conway's injury and command issues are in the back mirror.  Second straight outing w/o a walk.  If Edwards ever does that he'll be promoted to the majors.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 06, 2015, 05:04:07 pm
I saw a note on nsbb, I think copied from a scout, who'd seen Conway earlier this week I think.  Said he was hitting 95, i think with good movement, but that his control looked poor.  Interesting/promising that his velocity is good, and perhaps the stuff.  Perhaps the command will improve.  Kind of interesting, because my sense last year was that he was a good control guy.  Maybe that was last year, rehab year just throwing fastballs.  Lots harder to control the rest, I guess.  But he may have the arm to keep an eye on him, if he shows improved control and effectiveness over time. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on August 06, 2015, 05:11:15 pm
Scouting report on Torres:  http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/8/6/9102139/scouting-report-cubs-shortstop-prospect-gleyber-torres
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 09:16:33 pm
Torres: 2-5, 2 RBI, SB, K, E

Happ: 0-5, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_kccafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Zagunis: 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Peguero: 2-5, SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_dcurok_drxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


VSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 10:10:51 pm
Baez: 0-4, 2 K

Edwards: 2-2-0-0-0-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 3-4, BB, CS

Contreras: 1-3, RBI, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 06, 2015, 11:12:20 pm
Javy's struggling.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 11:16:26 pm
Baez was actually doing quite well until the last few games though even during his surges he was K'ing a lot and rarely walking.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 06, 2015, 11:28:37 pm
His K% was 25% before his injury. If he can do that in the majors he'll be really, really good.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 11:39:43 pm
It's 35% since his return and that's using PA's.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 06, 2015, 11:41:38 pm
Almora turns the wrong way, then makes a tremendous catch:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=340631883&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 06, 2015, 11:45:48 pm
It's 35% since his return and that's using PA's.

He was off for 6 weeks, his timing is going to be off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 07, 2015, 12:03:32 am
I'm simply pointing it out. Don't get defensive.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2015, 12:17:07 am
I'm not getting defensive. I would like him to K less. He's coming off an extended time off and it is a small sample size. It isn't worth getting concerned about for now. If he's still a K machine at the end of August it will be more concerning.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 07, 2015, 12:37:52 am
Hasnt he been a "K Machine" for a few years now?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 07, 2015, 01:04:22 am
Eugene:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_06_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Mesa off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 07, 2015, 05:47:36 am
He was off for 6 weeks, his timing is going to be off.

While that is perfectly true, aren't you one of those to urge that the Cubs should have already brought him up to the majors?
A lot of people want Castro gone or benched for Baez, myself included.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2015, 09:27:41 am
There is nothing in the full quote that implies I want it done this very instant in the partial quote you pulled. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 07, 2015, 07:34:10 pm
There is nothing in the full quote that implies I want it done this very instant in the partial quote you pulled. 

Right.... nothing other that the fact that you said you, at the time of your post, wanted Castro gone.  Not "gone sometime in the future," not "to be gone," but "gone."  Using the present tense of the verb, "want," you said on the 4th that you "want Castro gone or benched for Baez."

In other words there is nothing in what you wrote that implies you want it to happen NOW... other than the fact that it is the plain meaning of the words.

Yeah, nothing other than that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2015, 08:30:01 pm
Sorry I forgot to add the qualifier when Baez was ready.  You could back through my posting history and see I posted the same thing about Baez and his timing issues on Aug 3, or a day before I was calling for is recall in your mind.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 07, 2015, 08:40:20 pm
Eight hits (so far) in Almora's last three ganes in his quest to become Cubs future #9 hitter/CFer.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2015, 09:10:16 pm
Almora's bat coming around would make things so much easier for roster construction. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 07, 2015, 09:28:53 pm
Almora's offensive profile right now is pretty much Starlin Castro with fewer K's. Gonna take more than a couple good games to turn that around.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 07, 2015, 09:33:45 pm
Baez: 0-4, RBI, 2 SB, E,   1 for last 18

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Myrtle Beach:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-3, 2B, SF, RBI, SB

Happ: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_cliafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mesa rained out.


VSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 07, 2015, 09:44:06 pm
Almora: 3-4, 2B, BB

Contreras: 3-5, 2B, K,   18-30 in August

McKinney: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K,   GWing hit in 9th

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on August 07, 2015, 09:46:41 pm
Jeffrey Baez is on fire!!  I guess all it took was moving him to the leadoff spot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 07, 2015, 09:47:24 pm
Now that's the Javy Baez I know.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 01:18:11 am
Sorry I forgot to add the qualifier when Baez was ready.  You could back through my posting history and see I posted the same thing about Baez and his timing issues on Aug 3, or a day before I was calling for is recall in your mind.

Okay, so at least you are now backing off your nonsense that, "There is nothing in the full quote that implies I want it done this very instant in the partial quote you pulled," and the implication I was taking your quote out of context or that something in the rest of your post made clear you did not mean what you were saying in the language I quoted.  At least that is some progress.

Of course there was nothing in any of your posts on August 3 to suggest YOU felt Baez should be left in the minors (you did post to the effect that you recognized, "Baez might not be up for a few weeks at the earliest," but not that he also should not be called up for at least a few weeks, just that if might not happen, regardless what you might want).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 01:27:20 am
DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Eugene:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_07_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 08, 2015, 08:33:36 am
Okay, so at least you are now backing off your nonsense that, "There is nothing in the full quote that implies I want it done this very instant in the partial quote you pulled," and the implication I was taking your quote out of context or that something in the rest of your post made clear you did not mean what you were saying in the language I quoted.  At least that is some progress.

Of course there was nothing in any of your posts on August 3 to suggest YOU felt Baez should be left in the minors (you did post to the effect that you recognized, "Baez might not be up for a few weeks at the earliest," but not that he also should not be called up for at least a few weeks, just that if might not happen, regardless what you might want).
There is nothing in that quote that was meant to say right now. I may have not been clear enough for you. I'm sorry that I don't put absolutes in my posts when dealing with prospects, but it was pretty clear from all of my previous posts that I thought Baez wasn't ready. Please don't dislocate your shoulder trying to pat yourself on the back for being the only one to say Baez wasn't ready.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 09:06:28 am
There is nothing in that quote that was meant to say right now. I may have not been clear enough for you. I'm sorry that I don't put absolutes in my posts when dealing with prospects, but it was pretty clear from all of my previous posts that I thought Baez wasn't ready. Please don't dislocate your shoulder trying to pat yourself on the back for being the only one to say Baez wasn't ready.

I don't know what you "meant to say."  I only know what you said.  What you said is exactly as I have indicated.  If it were not you would not now be weaseling over what you "meant to say," but would instead have been pointing to what you did write.  As to patting myself on the back, I not only have not indicated I deserve any praise for the observation, but have pointed out that it was perfectly apparent.  And in my case it is not just that I "meant" to write that, but that I did.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 08, 2015, 09:20:19 am
With Almora's hot streak, he's move up and beyond several thresholds:  .250 batting average; .290 and .300 OBP; .630, .650, and .670 OPS; with some hits he's up to .373 slugging now, too, high point on the year. 

I'd been concerned with groundouts; but his GO/AO of 1.12 isn't bad.  I haven't been reading the game logs much since May.  But checking these last two nights in which he's gotten six hits, two of them were actually reported as line drives, both to left field.  (The others were two grounders, a bloop, and a bunt.)  If he's going to blossom into a .700-OPS type guy, he'll probably need to both hit some line drives once in a while, and to use left field at least a little bit, so that's nice to see.  He appears to have become an accomplished bunter. 

Even after recent binge, BABIP only up to .272, low for a supposed line-drive contact guy.  Not sure it's all bad luck; if you take weak, soft swings towards CF/RF, perhaps not conducive to line drives or BABIP.  But, supposed the BABIP is just bad luck; replace .272 with .300 BABIP would add 23 points to his batting average.  Adding an extra 23 points to average, OBP, and 23+ to slugging, at .730 OPS and .400 slugging he'd look more interesting.  .300 BABIP shouldn't seem unrealistic; most good-hitting prospects in the minors BABIP much higher than .300.  But, that kind of goes with hitting line drives and hitting the ball hard semi-regularly. 

Maybe Almora future can emerge like Contreras, scuffle for several years, than suddenly becoming a high-BABIP hitter. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 08, 2015, 09:31:41 am
The nice thing about Almora is he doesn't have to be a great offensive player to be a useful major league player. I wonder if some of his struggles have been working to refine his approach. It would certainly be great if he could a .700 OPS CF, wth his defense in center that would be a 3-4 WAR player. Even if he's below league average on offense he could still be a 2-3 WAR player.

Jes don't bother replying I put you back on ignore.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on August 08, 2015, 09:32:29 am
The nice thing about Almora is he doesn't have to be a great offensive player to be a useful major league player. I wonder if some of his struggles have been working to refine his approach. It would certainly be great if he could a .700 OPS CF, wth his defense in center that would be a 3-4 WAR player. Even if he's below league average on offense he could still be a 2-3 WAR player.

Jes don't bother replying I put you back on ignore.
I'm told that doesn't stop him.  :)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 10:55:23 am
Jes don't bother replying I put you back on ignore.

~sniff~    :'(

How will I possibly survive?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 08, 2015, 11:06:41 am
Hitting the ball hard and hitting line drives is important. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 08, 2015, 11:31:12 am
Okay, so at least you are now backing off your nonsense that, "There is nothing in the full quote that implies I want it done this very instant in the partial quote you pulled," and the implication I was taking your quote out of context or that something in the rest of your post made clear you did not mean what you were saying in the language I quoted.  At least that is some progress.

There is no IMPLICATION in that post that he wants anything done IMMEDIATELY.  Just because you INFERRED something that no one that has read his previous posts would have inferred, that does not change the meaning of the post.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 01:46:41 pm
There is no IMPLICATION in that post that he wants anything done IMMEDIATELY.  Just because you INFERRED something that no one that has read his previous posts would have inferred, that does not change the meaning of the post.

And there was also nothing in my post which said anything about "immediately."  He used the present tense in referring to wanting something done in the replacement of Castro when he wrote that a lot of people, himself included "want Castro gone or benched for Baez."  If he had only said "want Castro gone," the implication would be that it is a present desire for something to happen in the present, though it would leave open the interpretation that he was expressing a desire for an off-season move to be made, but when he followed that with "or benched," he eliminated any reasonable interpretation of it applying to anything other than the present, whether you want to consider that "immediate" or not (a bit like Bill Clinton quibbling over what the meaning of the word "is" is) does not alter the fact that it is WRITTEN in a manner which addresses the present, the here and now, and not some time in the indefinite future.  Now, as I mentioned, I wrote nothing about "immediately," but I did accurately represent what what written without anything close to distorting it or inferring anything from it beyond the plain meaning of the words.

Now, since you believe that I did infer something which was not implied, can you take the words, "want Castro gone or benched for Baez," in the context in which they were used (it was not a discussion about playoff lineups or what anyone thought should be done after September call-ups), and offer a rational interpretation where those words would not have been addressing the present?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 08, 2015, 07:33:17 pm
Stinnett with a 6K-1BB no-hitter through 5. 

Through 4, Johnson has allowed his usual 1 run.
Through 3, Blackburn with a no-hitter.  1K and 9 grounders (one was errored.) 

Almora benefits when hannemann gets on in front of him.  They always have him bunt then, and he got another bunt single tonight.  Through 4 innings, he's got another bunt single, another walk, and a double. 

Through 4 innings, Tennessee has gotten 16 base runners (11 hits and 5 walks.)  Each of the interesting prospects with at least two times on base. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on August 08, 2015, 08:52:41 pm
With the VSL coming to an end this weekend I can now admit that I mostly checked the VSL box scores to see if Francisco Garay could reach 100 strike outs before reaching 200 at bats. While he will miss this dubious distinction (assuming he avoids a golden sombrero tomorrow) he did lead the team in errors and is batting ~0.130.  Must have a lot of tools!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 08:58:18 pm
Contreras: 1-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB

McKinney: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI, BB

Johnson: 7-3-1-1-1-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Blackburn: 6-3-2-0-1-3,   1 ER in 26 IP since return from injury

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-3, 2B, BB, 2 K

Stinnett: 7-3-1-1-2-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_cliafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_drnrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 08, 2015, 09:10:46 pm
Blackburn 16:1 GO/AO. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 09:16:09 pm
Article on Willson Contreras:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150806&content_id=141460280&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 08, 2015, 09:21:18 pm
A guy from BP saw Blackburn's previous start.  Had him topping out at 92 and throwing a bunch of average secondaries. He rated him a 45 and gave him a back end starter upside.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 09:43:54 pm
Baez: 0-2, RBI, 2 BB,   1 for last 20

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 09:46:11 pm
Bring him up now.

He's hot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2015, 10:31:50 pm
Baez: 0-2, RBI, 2 BB,   1 for last 20

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

1 for last 20, but only 4 Ks.

Just before these 20 ABs, he was 8 for 20, but with 8 Ks.

No, the answer is not more Ks.

Maybe the question is, what the heck is up with Baez. Wonder if Cubs have a clue. Kinda doubt it.

Find a club who thinks it knows the answer and trade him there for a good return.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 08, 2015, 10:41:30 pm
1 for last 20, but only 4 Ks.

Just before these 20 ABs, he was 8 for 20, but with 8 Ks.

No, the answer is not more Ks.

Maybe the question is, what the heck is up with Baez. Wonder if Cubs have a clue. Kinda doubt it.

Find a club who thinks it knows the answer and trade him there for a good return.

Unless more than one other club believes they know the answer, it is unlikely the Cubs could find that "good return" because no teams would be bidding against each other.  Considering his upside, unless some other team made a surprisingly high offer, it is probably best that the Cubs keep him and hope he figures things out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2015, 11:01:19 pm
Happ now with 19 Ks in 57 PAs at SB. 

Exactly 1/3 Ks. Not good. Some of us remarked pre-draft that Happ had a higher-than-ideal K rate in college.

Midwest League should not be terribly challenging to an advanced college hitter---a guy who played TWO summers at the Cape. Some clubs even more conservative than Cubs with college hitter. Benintendi still in short-season ball and Mets did same with Conforto last season.

Only 57 PAs there but would like to see better contact going forward from Happ.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 11:15:31 pm
Happ's ceiling: a better Mark Bellhorn?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 11:16:59 pm
De La Cruz: 6-4-0-0-0-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Wilson: 1-4, 3B, RBI, SB, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_08_cubrok_athrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 11:18:32 pm
Almora makes a nice catch....

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=348256083


And drives a ball deep to center:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=348212783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 11:19:44 pm
Happ's first homer at South Bend:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=345071783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 08, 2015, 11:27:53 pm
Happ's ceiling: a better Mark Bellhorn?

If he could be a more consistent Bellhorn that would be a pretty good player. Bellhorn's first season with the Cubs and with Red Sox was a 3+ WAR player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 08, 2015, 11:44:41 pm
Bellhorn had two real nice seasons, otherwise was barely ML caliber. But his K/BB rates, pedestrian BA, and raw power reminded of Happ though Happ is clearly a better athlete.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2015, 11:54:50 pm
Yeah, BR most similar career batters to Bellhorn are Eli Marrero, Ted Lepcio, Bobby Morgan, and Luis Valbuena.

That would be a disappointment.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 08, 2015, 11:57:34 pm
Bellhorn was like Soto and Rich Wilken in that they all had one or two really good years in an otherwise mediocre career.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 09, 2015, 12:02:14 am
If memory serves, as a Cub, he was the first player to hit a HR from both sides of the plate in the same inning...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2015, 12:23:38 am
Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.  Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that contribute at the major league level.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 09, 2015, 02:53:32 am
Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.  Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that contribute at the major league level.

The most recent college OFers taken at #9 each had career rWAR over 21. Mark Kotsay and Geoff Jenkins.

That's who we should be looking at as Happ comps---not all the pitchers who got hurt, good field/no hit shortstops, etc.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2015, 07:09:33 am
Fair enough.

20 WAR over 10 years is a league average starter. I think my comp for Happ would be Dexter Fowler, with more power and less speed. High OBP, high K and average-ish defense in CF.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 09, 2015, 09:13:18 am
Tangent:  Ten years averaging league-average starter would be a good thing. 
1.  We'll struggle to find league average within our current system.
2.  Career-average-league-average is perhaps worse than it sounds, I think.  Most guys have lesser years before they retire at the end which depresses their career WAR/year average.  So to end up career-average despite the bad old years implies a group of above-average years during career prime.  Usually earlier in career while still controlled by original team and when value/$$ is favorable. 

Caveat:  I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later.  But, first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick and that he's very unlikely to be any good.   When you're whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the massive step to the majors.  19:1 K/HR doesn't project well. 

I think they just missed on the scouting this time.  I don't imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9 pick did so expecting this.  He was drafted based on proven, experienced college bat.  Not a raw projectable hitter; not a defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher who can afford 200 K's.   Hitting was supposed to be his best attribute; without that, not much to fall back on. 

I understand this goes with Blue's point.  The expectation should have been nothing, so getting nothing should be no surprise. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 09, 2015, 09:23:13 am
Caveat:  I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later.  But, first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick and that he's very unlikely to be any good.   When you're whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the massive step to the majors.  19:1 K/HR doesn't project well. 

I think they just missed on the scouting this time.  I don't imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9 pick did so expecting this.  He was drafted based on proven, experienced college bat.  Not a raw projectable hitter; not a defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher who can afford 200 K's.   Hitting was supposed to be his best attribute; without that, not much to fall back on. 

You sure that 57 PA is "early?"  I'd be inclined to say something more like "extraordinarily premature."   ;)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2015, 11:58:33 am
Way to early to make any judgments about Happ. 

So far college hitters and pitchers. 

Dansby Swanson- DNP concussion
Alex Bregman- .259/.368/.330 (A) .269/.296/.385 (A+)
Andrew Benintendi- .255/.379/.457 (A-)
Ian Happ- .283/.408/.491 (A-), .255/.333/.392 (A)
Kevin Newman .226/.281/.340 (A-)
Richie Martin .258/.386/.383 (A-)
DJ Stewart  .238/.308/.373  (A-)

The pitchers
Dillion Tate 2 IP
Tyler Jay 6.10 ERA/ 10.1 IP/ 6 BB/ 13 K
Carson Fulmer- 5.14 ERA/ 7 IP/ 1 BB/ 9 K

It is possible it was just a really bad draft.  In the way too early to make judgments Fulmer is having the most interesting debut.  Happ is performing like a bunch of the college hitters.  Better results, but more K's.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 09, 2015, 04:27:37 pm
Baez: 1-3, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 3-5, RBI, BB, 2 K, CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_cliafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 09, 2015, 06:42:36 pm
Almora: 2-3, 2B, RBI, SB, BB, K

Contreras: 1-3, SF, 3 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 09, 2015, 06:44:40 pm
Almora certainly appears to have been on a roll recently.  It's easy to forget that he just turned 21 in April, so maybe something is beginning to click for him.  It would be nice if this represents some sort of breakthrough on his part.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 09, 2015, 06:49:57 pm
Almora certainly appears to have been on a roll recently.  It's easy to forget that he just turned 21 in April, so maybe something is beginning to click for him.  It would be nice if this represents some sort of breakthrough on his part.

If he were ready by the end of 2016, he still would be no older than most graduating college seniors.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 09, 2015, 08:07:51 pm
Myrtle Beach:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 09, 2015, 08:23:02 pm
Almora must now be very much close to .700 OPS now.  Game log:  "sharp line drive" to left field, and doubled to left field. 

He's now at 25 walks in 307 AB.  Not bad at all, walks-wise. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 09, 2015, 08:25:06 pm
Fingers are crossed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2015, 08:55:42 pm
According to Twitter the double just missed being a HR by a foot on the fence. 

If he could just be a slightly below average hitter in the majors he'd be useful.  If he was actually league average or better....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 09, 2015, 09:40:48 pm
@MRubio52: Stinnett 89-91 with moderate run and poor command. Low 3/4, slider flashes, HS used CH sparingly.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2015, 10:53:07 pm
Safe to say he didn't like any of the South Bend guys except for Torres.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 09, 2015, 11:23:14 pm
Alzolay: 5-3-0-0-0-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mesa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_cubrok_clerok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on August 09, 2015, 11:24:45 pm
Isn't this a bit of a pattern for Baez.  Short term wowzer success than K-city?  Are pitchers adapting to him that quickly or is he so impressed with himself he forgets what got him the success?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 10, 2015, 12:14:55 am
If I'm doing the math correctly he has 64 PA and 18 K since being back in Iowa for a 28% K rate.  In his last 10 games it is 27%.  If you include his Arizona games his K% since coming back is 22.8%.  It is higher than when he got injured, but seems to be trending down.  His more recent struggles seem to be BABIP related.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 10, 2015, 12:48:00 am
Blackburn pitching sequence:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=352487883&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 10, 2015, 02:41:13 pm
According to BA, Cubs have released Trey McNutt.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 10, 2015, 02:41:58 pm
Zach Cates released too, according to BA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on August 10, 2015, 03:13:05 pm
According to BA, Cubs have released Trey McNutt.
McNutt was the one that Tampa Bay wanted instead of Chris Archer.  Sometimes things go awry.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JR on August 10, 2015, 03:32:02 pm
According to BA, Cubs have released Trey McNutt.

I'm surprised he was still in the organization.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 10, 2015, 04:09:16 pm
McNutt was the one that Tampa Bay wanted instead of Chris Archer.  Sometimes things go awry.

It's funny how that was reported widely right around Hendry's departure back in 2011. Guessing that Hendry probably had off-the-record chats with every baseball writer in Chicago about stuff like that, not for attribution.

Think main guy in that deal was Hak-ju Lee, who is now a .220 AAA singles hitter, after a terrible injury couples years back. Imagine if both Archer AND Lee had turned into impact guys. Archer may have best slider in baseball---a ridiculously great pitch.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on August 10, 2015, 04:43:58 pm
Deeg loved Hak-ju Lee.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 10, 2015, 05:29:40 pm
There was a lot to like about him before he got hurt, for sure...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bluebufoon on August 10, 2015, 06:19:49 pm
Almora has already doubled in his first AB tonight with a hard line drive down the 3rd base line. It appears he's figuring out Double A.

I guess I should update my own post by pointing out Wilson Contreras knocked in Almora with a two-out single to give the Smokies a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st. Then McKinney hammers a two-run homer to right 3-0 still in the 1st.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 10, 2015, 07:27:41 pm
Almora singles to SS in the 5th.  He's over .700 OPS, and will stay there for the night. 

Bufoon, is Almora leg-kicking much tonight? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 10, 2015, 07:31:32 pm
Almora has already doubled in his first AB tonight with a hard line drive down the 3rd base line. It appears he's figuring out Double A.

He's actually hitting about .360 over his last ten games.  Perhaps he has figured it out.  If he continues hitting well over the next week, is there any chance the Cubs would move him up to Iowa to finish off the season?  Iowa is 4 games out, Tennessee is 6 games out, and neither won the first half, so he might have a bit better chance to get some post-season experience (even if only minor league post-season) with Iowa, and it the AAA experience might help his development there.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 10, 2015, 07:32:24 pm
Rondon: 5-1-0-0-1-9,   last 3 outings:  14 IP, 2 BB, 20 K, 1 ER
 
Pieters hasn't played in days.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_10_dbrrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa, South Bend, Myrtle Beach, Mesa all off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 10, 2015, 07:34:42 pm
Does anyone know what happened with Logan Watkins after the Cubs designated him for assignment last December?  Did he just end up retiring at age 25?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 10, 2015, 07:54:19 pm
Quote
Logan Watkins, who had stints with the Cubs in each of the past two seasons, announced via Twitter that he suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon while working out in Arizona.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/05/cubs-infielder-logan-watkins-out-for-the-season-with-torn-achilles-tendon/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 10, 2015, 08:03:09 pm
Thanks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 10, 2015, 08:28:41 pm
Almora has already doubled in his first AB tonight with a hard line drive down the 3rd base line. It appears he's figuring out Double A.

I guess I should update my own post by pointing out Wilson Contreras knocked in Almora with a two-out single to give the Smokies a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st. Then McKinney hammers a two-run homer to right 3-0 still in the 1st.

I'm not sure there is any other position player in the minors whose progress could be more important to the Cubs' future at this point.  Hoping for the best.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 10, 2015, 08:40:27 pm
Ryan Williams today with six innings, one hit, no runs, no walks, five strike outs.

Given his stuff and age, it is easy to dismiss his performance in Mesa and Boise last year, and South Bend this year.  But with the same success in Tennessee, I am starting to wonder if we have another Hendricks in the system.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 10, 2015, 09:16:37 pm
McKinney: 2-3, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K

Contreras: 2-4, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_10_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 10, 2015, 09:58:16 pm
Contreras: 2-4, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_10_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Contreras is not only hitting .343/.419/.496/.915 for the season in 361 AB, he is hitting .550 in his last ten games, with at least one hit in each game and 7 multi-hit games in the last ten.  He leads the league for the season in BA and OBP, and is 2nd in OPS by 55 points to a player with 50 fewer AB.  Contreras now has a 14 game hit streak.  So far he has only started two games this season when he had a BA less than .300 to start the game, and one of those was opening day when he started with a BA of .000 along with everyone else.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 10, 2015, 11:40:55 pm
I agree with jes, I think a potential landscape with both Schwarber and Contreras able to play catcher, and share it to variable degree, is interesting and appealing. 

The Cubs admin has talked about the value of having guys who can play multiple positions.  I perceived that in terms of utility players, or guys who could start at a different position if blocked at their original primary position.  (Baez and Russell to 2nd, for example.)  But I think what Maddon has been doing lately highlights some value of having guys able to play a couple of spots.  I didn't guess Schwarber could catch this soon, adequately; or play LF, adequately.  I hardly dreamed that Coghlan could play 2B.  That Russell could play very good 2B after only a week practicing there.  That Bryant could go out and play LF or CF and do fine.  In past we've had starters, and subs/utility guys. 

But you always have somebody in a slump, from among the intended starters.  Having a bunch of guys who can play several spots means you can play whoever is relatively healthy and hot, and more conveniently rest somebody who's hurt or cold.  Quite a nice possibility. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 10, 2015, 11:42:19 pm
Eugene:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_10_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Wilson: 2-4, SF, RBI, SB, K

Cease: 2-1-0-0-2-3

Ovando: 2/3 IP, K,   13-2/3 IP, 6 H, 23 K,   converted pitcher

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_10_pdrrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 11, 2015, 12:16:49 am
Arguello tweeted that Cease was working 95-97 and hit 100 tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 11, 2015, 02:16:45 am
Does anyone know whether or not the Cubs plan to have Bryan Hudson pitch in rookie ball this year? With only three weeks or so left in the season, it seems unlikely.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 11, 2015, 03:13:48 am
Does anyone know whether or not the Cubs plan to have Bryan Hudson pitch in rookie ball this year? With only three weeks or so left in the season, it seems unlikely.


Good timing with that question.


Quote
3rd round LHP Bryan Hudson threw a bullpen session and the plan is now to have him appear in games.  There had been some buzz around here that the Cubs wouldn't pitch him until instructs.


http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/08/daily-cubs-minors-recap-2/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 11, 2015, 03:30:37 am

Good timing with that question.



http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/08/daily-cubs-minors-recap-2/

Thanks, Chris.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 11, 2015, 05:15:37 am
I agree with jes, I think a potential landscape with both Schwarber and Contreras able to play catcher, and share it to variable degree, is interesting and appealing. 

The Cubs admin has talked about the value of having guys who can play multiple positions.  I perceived that in terms of utility players, or guys who could start at a different position if blocked at their original primary position.  (Baez and Russell to 2nd, for example.)  But I think what Maddon has been doing lately highlights some value of having guys able to play a couple of spots.  I didn't guess Schwarber could catch this soon, adequately; or play LF, adequately.  I hardly dreamed that Coghlan could play 2B.  That Russell could play very good 2B after only a week practicing there.  That Bryant could go out and play LF or CF and do fine.  In past we've had starters, and subs/utility guys. 

But you always have somebody in a slump, from among the intended starters.  Having a bunch of guys who can play several spots means you can play whoever is relatively healthy and hot, and more conveniently rest somebody who's hurt or cold.  Quite a nice possibility.

As big a benefit as the added flexibility of a Contreras/Shwarber combination would offer, the most significant aspect of having the two of them (combined with another more traditional backup catcher) would allow a manage to rotate both Contreras and Schwarber away from behind the plate in order to keep their hands fresh as batters.

One of the things I remember bout the nightmare 1969 season is that Randy Hundley, the Cubs' durable catcher, was hitting about .322 with power (an OPS of .910) into the middle of June (6/17), which was one of the reasons the team did so well at the start of the season.  But as the cummulative effect of catching every day (Hundley had started all 63 of the Cubs' games up to that point, including 7 double-headers, the inevitable sore beat up hands saw his numbers steadily fall.  He ended up batting .255 with an OPS of .725, and in the disastrous month of September, when pennant chances slipped into the toilet, Hundley batted .141 with an OPS of .461.

Beat up hands make it extremely difficult to hit, and they are almost unavoidable for anyone consistently behind the plate.  One of the reasons the Yankees of the Berra/Howard era got such consistently strong production out of both of them was by rotating them in and out of the catching role and allowing them to keep relatively fresh hands.  If the Cubs are able to do that with Contreras/Shwarber for five years, the advantage would be huge.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bluebufoon on August 11, 2015, 12:38:34 pm
Almora's second AB in the 3rd inning last night was a deep fly ball that was caught on the warning track. I wasn't at last night's game, I was listening to the game on the radio but in the highlights I've seen of Almora since he's been back from the Pan-Am games, I don't remember seeing a noticeable leg kick in Almora's stance but again I've haven't been out to Smokies Park in a few weeks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 11, 2015, 02:08:26 pm
Does anyone know whether or not the Cubs plan to have Bryan Hudson pitch in rookie ball this year? With only three weeks or so left in the season, it seems unlikely.

Hudson is currently working out on the sidelines, and CubsDen? thinks he will pitch before the season ends.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 11, 2015, 02:39:30 pm
First HS pitcher selected, Kolby Allard, just got into his first game yesterday---one inning of work.  Ashe Russell, second guy, has pitched 25 innings. So, depends on the guy and the organization. Guess Cubs taking the conservative route with Hudson. Why not.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 11, 2015, 02:57:01 pm
Arguello (CubsDen) tweeted after the draft that the Cubs were working on cleaning up some mechanical issues with him. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 11, 2015, 08:46:04 pm
Almora with another 2 hit game tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 11, 2015, 08:50:43 pm
Almora the merrier.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 11, 2015, 09:01:04 pm
Myrtle Beach:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_dcurok_dbrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 11, 2015, 10:02:41 pm
Baez: 1-4, K

Edwards: 1-1-0-0-1-1

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-4, RBI, SB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_souafx_belafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 11, 2015, 10:27:58 pm
The Emeralds' 2-7 hitters all have 3 hits tonight, and they've only played 6 innings.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 12, 2015, 12:04:42 am
Jimenez returns: 3-6, 2 RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_11_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 12, 2015, 09:33:43 am
Almora:
1.  OPS up to .713.  (Career OPS is .737)
2.   BA up to .267 (career .287)
3.  OBP up to .319 (career .321)
4.  BABIP up to .287 (career .315)

Current .713 OPS is higher than the .712 Daytona OPS that got him a promotion last year.  In some ways, this season reflects last: scuffle for several months at Daytona, then a hot two weeks.  There were 36 games left after his promotion last year, not sure that promotion will be mirrored this time. 

Last year he ended with a composite .683 OPS/.291 OBP.  Current .713/.319 looks better, while playing entire season in higher level.  Progress.

Obviously we think about a guy more when he's hot.  (.823 Zagunis gets less discussion than last month ago when he peaked over .900.)  But nobody stays hot forever.  Seems inevitable that Almora is due for a relapse and may struggle to sustain his recent gains. 

But fun to see anyway.  Development is rarely linear.  Lots of plateaus, then progress, then plateau or relapse, then progression.  Perhaps Almora has progressed meaningfully in some lasting way? 

Who knows yet, but fun to hope.  That he's almost tripled his walk-rate this year is interesting.  For lots of guys, walking more comes at expense of power, and or more K's.  Sometimes taking more pitches, or trying to wait longer on pitches before committing, can be a very difficult and usually unsuccessful adjustment.  Perhaps he's finally settling into a new equilibrium? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 12, 2015, 10:22:12 pm
Almora with a hit.... and two HBP tonight.

Now, he's really making progress.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 12, 2015, 10:37:15 pm
Tseng: 6-11-5-5-0-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Baez: 1-2, 3B, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 0-4, 2 K

Clifton: 6-3-0-0-2-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_souafx_belafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


McKinney: 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_dcurok_dtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 13, 2015, 12:07:41 am
Eugene:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_eveasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Wilson: 3-5, 3B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_12_rngrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 13, 2015, 11:20:17 am
Baez is interested in getting some experience in the OF:

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/13/javier-baez-says-hes-open-to-playing-in-the-outfield-too/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 13, 2015, 04:35:04 pm
Baez is interested in getting some experience in the OF:

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/13/javier-baez-says-hes-open-to-playing-in-the-outfield-too/


I wonder if he is open to cutting down on his K's.....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 13, 2015, 04:48:28 pm
In his last 19 games, Baez has 19 K's in 86 PAs with 8 BBs and an OPS of .886.  Evidence of progress?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on August 13, 2015, 05:05:08 pm
Yeah, but not enough to get him called up sooner than Sept 1.  Barring injury.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 13, 2015, 05:15:58 pm
Yeah, but not enough to get him called up sooner than Sept 1.  Barring injury.

It's the 4-man bench before Sept 1.  Similar story to La Stella--who has been optioned.

Herrera is out of options and, therefore, would have to be outrighted/exposed to revocable waivers. Further, Herrera has the service time to refuse an outright. Maddon likes Herrera. With a 4-man bench, the Herrera issues have to be addressed, one way or the other, before bringing up an infielder before Sept. 1. 

So, whatever happens before Sept. 1, it's not simple.

On Sept 1, it's more simple. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 13, 2015, 05:17:18 pm
In his last 19 games, Baez has 19 K's in 86 PAs with 8 BBs and an OPS of .886.  Evidence of progress?

I'm guessing 19 games ago was the 2 HR game.  Probably if you do his last 18 games, then the OPS is probably mid/low .700's?  Fun with cutoffs.   :)

He's going to have his ups and his downs.  I think it's good to let him play through both of them, don't freak out too much over the downs, or the ups.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 13, 2015, 05:20:28 pm
As I think I pointed out few days ago, the high Ks went with the hot streak and the low Ks went with the slump.

Go figure with this guy.

Love the talent.  Love the natural baseball instincts.  Love the face.  Love the upside.

No idea about this guy's future.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on August 13, 2015, 05:44:29 pm
Quote
Maddon likes Herrera.

Herrera gets some eye-rolls around here, but I think he's been pretty good for what he is.  Not a huge contributor offensively, but I can remember some key hits from him earlier in the season, and I think Joe has used him really well.

I think Maddon has been really good at using all his pieces.  The worst thing I can think of is when he kept going to Schlitter early in the season looking for that ground ball.  Maybe some quick hooks on starting pitchers, but, like Hammel last night, that was justified by the game situation.  It's part of why I trust them to get the Schwarber development right.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 13, 2015, 07:55:25 pm
La Stella hits 3-run homer in first AB at Iowa.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 13, 2015, 09:03:44 pm
Almora: 2-3, 2B, BB

McKinney fouled a ball off his knee and came out.

Johnson: 7-6-3-2-1-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


MB:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Peguero: 2-3, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_dtirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 13, 2015, 10:01:51 pm
Baez: 0-3, SF, RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, BB, K, SB, PO

Happ: 1-4, GS, SF, 5 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_souafx_belafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 13, 2015, 11:02:53 pm
Almora has struck out one time in his last 56 PAs.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 13, 2015, 11:33:24 pm
Chris Pieters has been out a while. Figured he was hurt. Turns out he was promoted to Mesa.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 14, 2015, 12:18:58 am
Steele: 2-2-0-0-1-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_eveasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hudson: 2/3 -2-2-2-1-0, balk

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_13_giarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 14, 2015, 02:17:52 am
Callis has Cubs organization prospect group ranked at #4 in MLB (including Schwarber)--even with the Bryant, Russell, Soler graduations.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/142897918/best-minor-league-systems-in-baseball
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 14, 2015, 10:24:43 am
According to Cubs Den and Bill Mitchell Hudson was 89-92.  He had an inconsistent arm slot that lead to issues with control.  The curve looked good.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 14, 2015, 05:30:28 pm
Almora makes this week's Hot Sheet.


Quote
8. Albert Almora, cf, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .538/.625/.769 (14-for-26), 7 R, 6 2B, 3 RBIs, 4 BB, 1 SO, 1-for-2 SB

Almora has long drawn raves for his outstanding competitive makeup, so the Cubs didn’t sweat it when their 2012 first-rounder endured three rough summer months. He has begun to right the ship in August, collecting a hit in 10 straight games, including seven straight multi-hit games from Aug. 5-11. Perhaps more impressively, Almora has struck out just 35 times this season in 322 at-bats.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-aug-14/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 14, 2015, 10:50:15 pm
Happ: 3-5, HR, 2 RBI

Torres: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_souafx_wisafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Baez: 0-4

Rivero: 3-1-1-1-0-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 1-5, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


MB:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 15, 2015, 12:20:49 am
Jimenez: 2-4, RBI, K

Araujo: 4-1-1-1-1-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_eveasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Pieters: 1-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_cubrok_cinrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_14_dbwrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 15, 2015, 03:25:38 am
In his last ten games Baez is now hitting .111 with 8 K's in 36 AB with 4 BB.

In his last ten games, Torres is hitting .300 with 8 K's in 40 AB.

In his last ten games, Almora is hitting .500 with 2 K's in 40 AB.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 15, 2015, 02:58:18 pm
Happ's swing, body motion, and follow through from the left side look strikingly like Mark Teixeira's.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=371996783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 15, 2015, 03:07:26 pm
Happ's swing, body motion, and follow through from the left side look strikingly like Mark Teixeira's.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=371996783&sid=milb

Pretty deep drive for a swing which wasn't from the heels or seem to be straining at all.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 15, 2015, 07:59:42 pm
Blackburn with 9K/0BB through 6.  Did allow a rare HR, though.  His ERA is down to 3.02 for the moment.  His FIP was below 3 entering the game.  Not sure how well his modest-velocity stuff projects to the majors.  But for A-ball, he's pretty good. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 15, 2015, 09:08:43 pm
Tenn:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Blackburn: 7-4-1-1-0-9

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 0-4, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_souafx_wisafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 15, 2015, 10:34:12 pm
Stinnett 8K/1BB, and 7/0 GO/AO. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 15, 2015, 11:39:03 pm
Baez: 2-5, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_iowaaa_lvgaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_dcurok_dbwrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Wilson: 0-4, 3 K

Vogelbach: 2-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_cubrok_giarok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 16, 2015, 01:09:40 am
Jimenez: GW sac-fly in 12th,  BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_15_eveasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 16, 2015, 04:18:17 pm
Almora: 1-4, 2B, E

Contreras: 2-4, 2B, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_16_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Happ: 2-3, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_16_souafx_wisafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 16, 2015, 09:31:25 pm
The Emeralds throw a 4-man no-hitter.

Jimenez: 1-4, 2B

Hernandez: 2-0-0-0-2-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_16_eveasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Myrtle Beach:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_16_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 17, 2015, 12:01:00 am
Baez: 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 K, SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_16_iowaaa_lvgaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 17, 2015, 09:47:16 am
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/143088744/eddy-julio-martinez-leads-unsigned-cuban-stars

Article about unsigned Cubans.  And another.  The latter, from Cuba, ranks Eddy Martinez as the #15 prospect. 

http://www.cubaheadlines.com/2015/02/25/p6/rookies-of-cuban-baseball.html

BA reports the Cubs have officially signed the Korean kid, Kwang-Min Kwon, 17, to a $1.2 million bonus.  That would seem to be two reported/official signings now, Kwon and the catcher from Panama.  Kwon hit .339 with 1 HR in high school.  Said he was an infielder until this year, moved to OF, supposedly scouts perhaps as a 1B.  But, Cubs tend to have kept a lot of guys at a slot higher on the position spectrum than have been expected, so perhaps he'll stay OF. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 17, 2015, 01:08:40 pm
Assessment of our farm system from Bleacher Nation:

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/17/the-bn-mid-season-top-40-prospects-list-full-list-and-wrapping-up/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 17, 2015, 11:17:19 pm
Jimenez: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Pieters: 2-3, 2B, SF, 3 RBI

Cease: 2-2/3 -3-4-2-0-2, 2 WP, HB

Hudson: 1-1-0-0-0-1, WP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_cubrok_wsxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_dmlrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn, MB, South Bend all off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 17, 2015, 11:57:27 pm
Uh oh. CJ Edwards threw two pitches--both balls--tonight before being removed.


Update:

Apparently good news in that the injury seems to be to his finger.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 18, 2015, 02:35:02 am
Mesa Gm 2:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_wsxrok_cubrok_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Baez: 2-5, RBI, K, Sac bunt!!

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_iowaaa_lvgaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on August 18, 2015, 08:33:41 pm
McKinney is done for the year with a hairline fracture in his knee from a foul ball.

http://m.milb.com/news/article/20150818143911502/cubs_mckinney_out_for_season_with_knee_injury
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 18, 2015, 09:11:12 pm
Happ: 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, K, Assist


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_18_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn and Myrtle Beach both rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 18, 2015, 09:46:29 pm
Duane Underwood back today---rehab start for AZ.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 19, 2015, 12:20:01 am
Baez: 2-5, CS, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_18_iowaaa_lvgaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 0-2, RBI, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_18_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_18_dcurok_dmlrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Pieters: 2-3, 2 2B, SF, RBI

Underwood: 2-1-0-0-0-4

Ovando: 2-0-0-0-0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_18_cinrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 19, 2015, 02:13:13 pm
Not exactly the best route taken by Happ but the catch was good:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=384135483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 19, 2015, 09:14:04 pm
Torres: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 3 K

Happ: 1-4, 2B, BB

Clifton: 6-1/3 -4-2-2-0-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn Gm 1:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



MB Gm 1:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_dcurok_dpirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 19, 2015, 11:02:15 pm
Baez: 3-4, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_iowaaa_slcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn Gm 2:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_monaax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tseng: 6-6-2-2-1-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_myrafa_wswafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 19, 2015, 11:49:59 pm
Jimenez: 2-6, RBI, K, E

Paulino: 5-3-1-1-1-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_eugasx_boiasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Rodriguez: 3-3-0-0-0-8

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_19_cubrok_pdrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 20, 2015, 12:49:00 am
Baez has one homer in his last 87 at-bats.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 20, 2015, 01:20:18 am
Maybe he's trying to calm down a little instead of acting like a 300 lb slow pitch softball player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 20, 2015, 12:41:24 pm
Daniel Vogelbach ‏@DanielVogelbach  12m12 minutes ago
Finally healthy and able to play again. Headed back to Tennessee today to finish the year with my boys. Excited to get back on the field
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on August 20, 2015, 01:18:00 pm
Going to take in a Jackson Generals game this weekend-free tix. They play Biloxi I think. Any interesting prospects on either team? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on August 20, 2015, 02:36:37 pm
Orlando Arcia, SS for Biloxi, is Keith Law's 17th best prospect.

This time around, Keith Law of ESPN has Arcia at number 17 in his mid-season list of the top-50 prospects in baseball.

Here's what Law had to say about the 20-year-old infielder from Venezuela:

Arcia showed off his glove and instincts in the Futures Game on Sunday, and he's by far the Brewers' best prospect right now and one of only two players in the system with a real chance to become a grade-60 or better regular (along with just-drafted outfielder Trenton Clark). While Arcia is just 20 and has only 327 minor league games played in the U.S., due in part to an injury that cost him the 2012 season, he's advanced enough defensively that the Brewers should entertain offers on Jean Segura or consider moving him to second base to make room.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 20, 2015, 09:28:42 pm
Happ: 2-3, 3B, RBI, BB,   11-26, 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB:  last 7 gms

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hannemann: 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 K

Zastryzny: 3 IP, 6 ER

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Zagunis: 2B, RBI, 2 K,   first game since 8/7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mejia: 3-5, 2B, RBI, 2 K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_dpirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 20, 2015, 09:42:57 pm
Donnie Dewees is 2-2, batting average now up to .262.  He's got a hitting streak of at least 11 games.  K's are kinda high for an old college $$$ guy in low-A, but nice to see him getting his average up.  His BABIP had been kind of low, but other than his K-rate, his numbers look reasonable.  Surprisingly, for a guy who's scouting reports emphasized his speed, he's been worthless as a short-season base-stealer, 10SB/5CS.  Often guys with no future as big-league base-stealers can steal with great success in short-season.  So, base-stealing doesn't appear to be part of his projection.

Ian Happ 2-3 plus a walk, including a triple.  He's now up to like .294.  The K's are still scary.  But the hitting has not totally come at the expense of taking some walks (perhaps now that he's hitting pitchers are being careful?)  Over his last six games, he's got ten hits and four walks. 

Wilson is 1-1 after an inning.  So, at this spot in the evening, the three $$ outfielders are a nice 5-6 combined.  Fun. 

As a reminder that guys who aren't hot can get hot, but nobody stays hot forever, Almora went 0-4, so hitless in back-to-back games, and hasn't had a 2-hit game now for a week.  Hopefully he'll have another little good run before his season ends.  And hopefully at least he'll be able to hang onto the .700 OPS.  Contreras, who'd never seemed to hit a slump all year, has now gone hitless in 6 of his last 8 games. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 20, 2015, 09:58:51 pm
Probably not statistically significant but Deewees has been terrible hitting with bases empty (.558 OPS) but terrific hitting with runners on base---especially runners in scoring position. Wonder if defense puts shift on him with bases empty or just bad luck. Guess we'll find out about him in 2016.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 20, 2015, 11:47:16 pm
Baez: 2-6, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_iowaaa_slcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hudson: 1-1-0-0-0-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_diarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-6, HR, 3 RBI, 2 K

Delarosa: 2-5, 2 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_20_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on August 21, 2015, 02:34:35 pm
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150821&content_id=144460140&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

Article on Preston Morrison's impressive start
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 21, 2015, 03:00:21 pm
Thanks, Dallen.  I know Morrison has been a durable starter, but I wonder what kind of possibilities he might have as a reliever.  The picture in your line really highlights his arm slot.  Probably don't need to throw very hard to be tough on righties if you can keep the ball down and throw from that kind of arm slot.  Between Morrison and Berg, plus signing that other side-armer this summer (who they put on the 25-man roster for a day or two before cutting him), some other short-season guy they had trying side-arm in camp, it appears at least somebody in the org is open to and interested in the side-arm/submarine gimmick. 

Berg is 15K/1BB/0HR in 14 innings at Myrtle, with a 2.7 GO/AO.  He's also given up 9 hits in his last 5 innings, so perhaps when he's locating, it's GO or K, but perhaps when he doesn't locate and gets it up, it's rope city? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 21, 2015, 04:52:11 pm
The also converted Corbin Hoffner to a side arm delievery. 
His stats in South Bend 0.44 ERA, 24.2 IP, 19 H, 6 BB 12 K

I would say Morrison's arm slot is more like Aaron Nola, a low 3/4.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 21, 2015, 09:37:28 pm
Almora: 2-7, 2B, RBI, 2 K, 2 E, GW single in 12th

Contreras: 2-5, HR, RBI, BB, K


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-3, BB, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_dynrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


MB:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mesa idle.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 21, 2015, 11:41:06 pm
Baez: 2-5, HR, 4 RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_iowaaa_slcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-3, SF, RBI, BB

Dewees: 3-5, RBI, K, 3 SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_21_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 21, 2015, 11:59:46 pm
Donnie Dewees is 2-2, batting average now up to .262.  Surprisingly, for a guy who's scouting reports emphasized his speed, he's been worthless as a short-season base-stealer, 10SB/5CS.  Often guys with no future as big-league base-stealers can steal with great success in short-season.  So, base-stealing doesn't appear to be part of his projection.


Dewees promptly steals three bases.  Craig's curse finally fails, at least for one game.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 22, 2015, 08:55:47 am
Villanueva is having quite a nice season at Iowa.  If his BABIP weren't so low, his stats would be terrific.  As it is, his K:BB ratio is <2 and he has hit 19 HRs. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 22, 2015, 09:03:52 am
Chesny Young has had fantastic season.  His K:BB ratio is 1 and he has been hovering close to .400 OBP.  Looking ahead, the ML team could sure use a high OBP guy at the top of the order.  Might Young become that guy?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 22, 2015, 12:56:58 pm
The Cubs backed out of their deal with Martinez, 3B, due to issues with his physical. They offered to cut his bonus to $50,000 and he declined.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 22, 2015, 08:49:00 pm
Almora: 1-3, BB

Vogelbach: 1-3, HR, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Zagunis: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, SB, HBP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Torres: 0-4, 2 K,    .217 in August

Happ: 0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



DSL:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_dcurok_dynrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 22, 2015, 09:26:29 pm
The Cubs backed out of their deal with Martinez, 3B, due to issues with his physical. They offered to cut his bonus to $50,000 and he declined.

Is that the IFA guy that was reported to sign for a million?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 22, 2015, 09:32:39 pm
Yes, so it saves roughly $2 million, hopefully for Cubans.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 22, 2015, 09:42:54 pm
The Cubs have signed a dozen IFA's. Seems unlikely they would do that if they thought they could get one of the big boys.

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 22, 2015, 10:13:07 pm
The Cubs have signed a dozen IFA's. Seems unlikely they would do that if they thought they could get one of the big boys.

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all

That list was a pre-signing period projection, not actual signings. Amarista backed out and signed with Colorado, Martinez failed his physical and one or two of the others may still be unsigned.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 22, 2015, 10:20:15 pm
A ton of Cubans have come on the market and since the season is almost over you might be able to roll the money over onto next year's budget, with higher attendance and all of that money from signs at Wrigley.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 22, 2015, 10:34:14 pm
I don't think Ricketts would allow budget restrictions to have a large effect on signings the rest of the year if the front office asked for more money for specific signings.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 22, 2015, 11:11:14 pm
The Corey Black relief experiment is not working out.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_monaax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Baez: 1-4, SB, E

Iowa wins a game in which no earned runs were scored.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_iowaaa_slcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 23, 2015, 12:53:58 am
Delarosa: 2-5, 3 E

Araujo: 2-3-0-0-0-3,   42-2/3 IP, 7 BB, 58 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Pieters: 0-4, K

Marte: 2-2-0-0-1-4, recently promoted

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_22_athrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 23, 2015, 01:02:45 pm
http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/22/albert-almora-hits-a-walk-off-for-the-smokies-continues-second-half-surge-video/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 23, 2015, 01:08:57 pm
Chesny Young has had fantastic season.  His K:BB ratio is 1 and he has been hovering close to .400 OBP.  Looking ahead, the ML team could sure use a high OBP guy at the top of the order.  Might Young become that guy?

He's also played all over the field in his two minor league seasons: 75 games at 2B, 15 at SS, 28 at 3B, 8 at 1B, 5 in RF and 12 in LF.  And he has stole a bit: 22-8 in steals.  Would be nice if he became what the Cubs had hoped Alcantara would be.  He's 22 this season in A+.  Probably not ready for the majors until 2017.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 23, 2015, 01:16:53 pm
http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/22/albert-almora-hits-a-walk-off-for-the-smokies-continues-second-half-surge-video/ (http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/08/22/albert-almora-hits-a-walk-off-for-the-smokies-continues-second-half-surge-video/)

"On the year, Almora is hitting .264/.317/.392, which is good for a league average bat in the Southern League (and, at 21, he’s one of the younger players in the league).

"Dating all the way back to June 13, though, Almora’s been fantastic: .290/.354/.467 (132 wRC+), 7.4% BB rate, 11.6% K rate."

It would be really huge if Almora has turned a corner offensively and can continue to produce well as he progresses through the system.  Am I being too unrealistic to hope that he might be able to join the Cubs by Sept of 2016?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 23, 2015, 01:19:16 pm
That would be the earliest.

He's Sam Fuld if we're lucky.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 23, 2015, 01:44:03 pm
If he could be league average on offense he'd be a 4 WAR player. If he could be above average he'd be really special.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 23, 2015, 04:41:54 pm
If he could be league average on offense he'd be a 4 WAR player. If he could be above average he'd be really special.

In other words, Almora still stands a very good chance for being much more than Sam Fuld.

While late 2016 would likely be the earliest he might reach the majors for anything resembling regular play, I wonder if Ron's question about Almora's earliest arrival could be off by about a year.  If Almora does reasonably well at the plate for the remainder of the minor league season, it might not be out of the question to add him to the major league roster in September to serve as a defensive replacement during the stretch drive.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 23, 2015, 05:32:54 pm
Caratini: 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K,   homered two straight games; had two prior

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_23_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Happ: 0-4,  nick name should be Streaky

Torres: DNP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_23_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Iowa off, Tenn rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 23, 2015, 07:34:02 pm
Ryan McNeil has quietly gotten interesting.  3rd round pick from the Blackburn/Underwood draft, had the surgery.  Came back last year and had 8.4 ERA at Boise.  Started wild and slow this season, but overall he's now at 2.73 ERA in 53 innings, with 49K/20BB/2HR/53IP, and 19K/6BB/19IP over last 10 games. 

I imagine the injury is enough behind now that he can focus on pitching and getting outs. 

Could be interesting to see how he gets used next year, and whether he steps it up. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 23, 2015, 10:30:14 pm
Conway also from that draft, and seems to be healthy.  While not dominant this year, he certainly wasn't bad considering how little he has pitched in the last three years.  He is another that will bear watching next season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 23, 2015, 11:51:38 pm
Dewees: 2-4, 3B, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_23_spoasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Underwood: 3-2-0-0-0-2

Hudson: 2-1-0-0-0-1

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_23_cubrok_giarok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 24, 2015, 07:40:14 am
Dewees:
*up to .272 average,
*has slipped up over .700 OPS.  (.708)
*OBP up to .311
*Over last 10 games he's hitting .380. 
*Over last 10 games still whiffing plenty, 10K/50AB 
*Over last 10 games, .487 BABIP, .380 BA.
*Over last 10 games zero walks.
*Season:  43K/12BB/5HR/228AB. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 24, 2015, 12:46:07 pm
Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler  31m31 minutes ago
Took a while, but SS Aramis Ademan ($2 million) and OF Jonathan Sierra ($2.5 million) have now signed their contracts with the Cubs.

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler  29m29 minutes ago
Ademan was our No. 12 international prospect for July 2. The Cubs were significantly higher on Sierra than the rest of the industry.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 24, 2015, 12:49:04 pm
Thanks, Blue.  I'd been wondering, it seemed until now the only reported signings had been the panama catcher and the korean LF/1B, so I'd wondered if some of those signings weren't going to happen, especially after the 3B didn't happen and the pitcher didn't happen.  Will be interesting to see if they make some additional signings, Cuban or otherwise. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 06:02:45 pm
Baez playing 3rd for Iowa tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on August 24, 2015, 06:31:13 pm
At first I thought it was because of Fowler but it might make sense with Soler's injury.  Against a lefty you could put Bryant in RF, Baez at 3B, and Castro at 2B I suppose. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 07:55:12 pm
Baez is having a huge game and it's only the 4th.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 24, 2015, 08:01:18 pm
3-3 with a 2B and a HR.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 08:06:54 pm
Gleyber Torres named MWL prospect of the year:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150824&content_id=145068594&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on August 24, 2015, 08:49:09 pm
Baez now 4-4.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on August 24, 2015, 08:55:25 pm
Baez has done everything but sell tickets...4 hits, 3 runs scored, two RBIs, double, HR, stolen base.  Not a bad night.

Maybe he did also sell tickets.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 09:04:59 pm
He got up again in the 8th and drew a walk.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 09:13:09 pm
Contreras: 2-2, HR, RBI, BB

Johnson: 6-6-4-4-1-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 2-4, 2B, SB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_tenaax_cngaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Zagunis: 2-4, 3B, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 0-3, BB, CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 09:17:54 pm
Baez: 4-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_freaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on August 24, 2015, 09:32:03 pm
He's ready
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 24, 2015, 09:34:40 pm
24.7% K% at Iowa this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on August 24, 2015, 09:51:15 pm
We need him, especially against lefties.  Get him to California.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 10:34:19 pm
For whatever this is worth:

Quote
Baez then hit his 13th home run of the season to make it 8-0.

“I’ve been seeing the ball really good,” Baez said. “And making my adjustments, hitting the ball really hard.”

Baez extended his season-best, nine-game hitting streak with an opposite-field double in the first inning.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 10:43:37 pm
Emeralds' game suspended due to a light issue, but not before this:

Quote
B1 | WAY BACK AND GONE! Eloy Jimenez smokes a two-run homer to put Eugene up, 2-1. 102.1 MPH off the bat, 394 feet.


https://twitter.com/EugeneEmeralds/status/636001592588681216
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 11:02:26 pm
Baez' homer easily cleared the high wall in center.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=407857283&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 24, 2015, 11:16:40 pm
Baez' homer easily cleared the high wall in center.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=407857283&sid=milb

He is still lifting the left leg, but it appear to be a good deal less than last year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 24, 2015, 11:27:38 pm
Wilson: 2-4, HBP

Cease: 3-1-0-0-1-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_angrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 24, 2015, 11:28:19 pm
With Schwarber graduating from the Callis/Mayo Cubs top 30 prospects at mlb.com, they have moved Oscar de la Cruz into top 30---at #23.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 03:11:40 am
Quote
"I'm seeing Javy really make some commitments to kind of cut down his swing and lessen some of the movement with his lower half and upper half," Harper said. "If anybody's seen Javy play, he has a tendency to overswing.

"I'll joke around with him and tell him he only needs to hit the ball 400 feet instead of 800 feet. He's making a commitment to do that, with two strikes to cut down on his swing, and you can see it in the numbers."

With Ramirez in town, Harper and the larger-than-life Major League veteran spent some time with Baez prior to the game.

"Manny and myself talked to him about doing some things and he took it into the game and did a great job," Harper said.


http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150824&content_id=145173112&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 25, 2015, 07:04:40 am
Some very encouraging developments in the minors with both Baez and Almora.  If those two could both succeed, to be added to Bryant, Schwarber, Russell (and Soler), oh my goodness.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 05:27:10 pm
Iowa Gm 1 -

Baez: 1-3, played 3rd

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_freaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 08:12:48 pm
Another article on Contreras' growth:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150825&content_id=145074386&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 08:15:02 pm
Jimenez picks up where he left off during the resumption of Eugene's game:


Quote
B6 | WAY BACK AND GONE! Eloy Jimenez blasts his second homer of the game, a big shot off the light tower in left! Ems lead, 3-1.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 25, 2015, 08:42:07 pm
Jimenez picks up where he left off during the resumption of Eugene's game:

Very nice! 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 25, 2015, 09:03:52 pm
Tseng with 27 Ks in last 26 IP over last 4 outings. Nice to see some Ks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 09:08:14 pm
Contreras: 2-4, RBI

Almora: 2-4, RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Zagunis: 1-3, 2B, BB, 2 K

Tseng: 7-4-2-2-1-9

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 2-4, K, CS, E

Happ: 0-4, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, K

Paulino: 4-2/3 -5-0-0-2-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_24_spoasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Mesa doubleheader rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 09:40:39 pm
Iowa Gm 2 -

Baez: 1-4, RBI, 2 K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_freaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 10:52:51 pm
Quote
B3 | WAY BACK AND GONE! Wow, another home run for Eloy Jimenez, his third in two games! This one a two-run moonshot to left!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 11:06:08 pm
Quote
Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler

Eloy Jimenez hit 2 HRs tonight. Batting .285/.332/.425 at 18 in a Northwest Lg full of college guys. Finally, the Cubs have a good prospect.


Quote
Ben Badler
@BenBadler

That's amazing. One minute after I tweet that, Eloy Jimenez hits his third home run of the night in game two of a doubleheader.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on August 25, 2015, 11:08:30 pm
LOL
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 25, 2015, 11:14:34 pm
I remember when we signed Eloy he was supposed to be a bad ass but this is the first sign Ive seen of it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 11:24:36 pm
Not many raw 17-year-olds rip things up in the pros, even at the lowest levels.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 25, 2015, 11:56:39 pm
Dewees: 2-4, 2B, SB

Jimenez: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI

Brooks: 1-0-0-0-0-3,    8-2/3 IP, 2 BB, 18 K  in Eugene

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_25_spoasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 02:40:15 am
Jimenez:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150826&content_id=145435018&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 04:04:20 am
Dewees is hitting .320 in the second half with 10 steals in 27 games. The bad news is he's drawn 2 walks in 122 at-bats over that span. At least he's hitting though.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 05:53:53 pm
Tseng's 9th K on a nice curve:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=413733283&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on August 26, 2015, 07:55:27 pm
Almora (and Vogelbach) with a double and HR so far tonight! 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 09:16:15 pm
Baez: 2-4, 2 RBI, K, CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_26_freaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-5, 3B, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_26_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 2-4, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, K

Vogelbach: 2-4, 2B, HR, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_26_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



MB rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 10:22:49 pm
Oscar De La Cruz has a no-hitter through 5 tonight with 9 K's. He fanned 4 in the 5th but allowed a run on a WP and error.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 10:35:12 pm
Jason McLeod talks Baez, Contreras, and a couple other things:

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/08/26/grotes-q-and-a-with-jason-mcleod-javier-baez-is-controlling-his-swing/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 26, 2015, 10:48:07 pm
McLeod comments about Baez very muted, I thought.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 26, 2015, 11:30:21 pm
DeLaCruz comes out with 13K/1BB/1single in 7 innings, if the box score is actually correct. Oscar's having a good season.  29K/3BB over last four starts. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 11:32:56 pm
Only hit Eugene allowed was an infield "dribbler" to 2nd off De La Cruz.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 11:33:08 pm
Jimenez: 1-2, BB, HBP

De La Cruz: 7-1-1-0-1-13,  7-3 GO/FO

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_26_spoasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 26, 2015, 11:42:48 pm
Baez' RBI single:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=416414883&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 26, 2015, 11:43:18 pm
Almora now at 270-323-401.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 27, 2015, 01:21:06 am
(http://www.dailyemerald.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1280x720xems26-8.jpg.pagespeed.ic.KLnRwJ-8p4.jpg)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 27, 2015, 06:54:55 am
Almora now at 270-323-401.

That's still with a .293 BABIP. 

For context, Gleyber Torres is now probably "ranked" above Almora on many peoples Cub's prospect lists.  But if Torres had Almora's .293 BABIP, he's be hitting .229. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2015, 02:06:24 pm
Well, we don't really know what to expect or know what is a reasonable BABIP for Almora or Torres. Generic BABIP are more useful for pitchers. Think, generally, BABIP average a bit higher in minors than big leagues, so point probably well taken that Almora a bit unlucky this season at .293.

McLeod made point recently that organizations way more interested in what prospect does second-half of season than first-half, for obvious reasons. So, that bodes well for Almora. Also, now evident he can begin 2016 in AAA. I was worried he might have to go back to AA to regroup. No worry now.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 27, 2015, 09:28:43 pm
Contreras: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, HBP, K,   2 points behind SL batting leader

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_27_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torrez: 7-7-2-2-0-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_27_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Baez: 1-4, SB, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_27_srcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Torres: 0-5, 2 K,   .209 in August

Happ: 1-5, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_27_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mesa rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 27, 2015, 09:35:16 pm

Torres: 0-5, 2 K,   .209 in August

Considering his age, is this the first time he has played so many games?  Could he simply be worn out?  Wouldn't seem to be a very good sign if that is the case, though some weight training and improved conditioning might overcome it next year if that is the problem.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2015, 09:38:34 pm
3 IP for Dillon Maples---with no walks, no HBP, no wild pitches.

Wow.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on August 27, 2015, 09:55:59 pm
Contreras is trying to make the Schwarber to LF decision easy.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 27, 2015, 10:32:35 pm
Considering his age, is this the first time he has played so many games?  Could he simply be worn out?  Wouldn't seem to be a very good sign if that is the case, though some weight training and improved conditioning might overcome it next year if that is the problem.

No way to be certain of course, but the first year of long season ball must be quite trying for kids towards the end of August.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 27, 2015, 11:42:46 pm
Jimenez: 0-4

Alzolay: 6-2-1-1-0-9

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_27_spoasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: bitterman on August 27, 2015, 11:58:25 pm
I remember when Chirinos came out of nowhere... Conteras seems similar.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 28, 2015, 07:55:56 am
The same thing with Soto.  But I would be satisfied if we get Soto's rookie year out of Contreras.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 28, 2015, 02:42:35 pm
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-video-breakdown-ian-happ/

This is video of Ian Happ from the Cape that was done by OnDeckDigital.  The owner of the company is now the Cardinals scouting director.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 28, 2015, 03:51:56 pm
Quote
4. Eloy Jimenez, lf, Cubs

Team: short-season Eugene (Northwest)

Age: 18

Why He’s Here: .308/.367/.692 (8-for-26), 8 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BB, 3 SO

The Scoop: Two Julys ago, the Cubs flexed their financial muscle when they hauled in Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, two tantalizing international prospects, for a combined $4.5 million. So far, those investments are paying off. Torres is turning heads in the Midwest League, and Jimenez is more than holding his own against older competition in the Northwest League. His .340 on-base percentage and 16.7 percent strikeout rate both bode well for his future in a stocked Cubs system.


Quote
16. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp, Cubs

Team: short-season Eugene (Northwest)

Age: 20

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 1 GS, 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 13 SO, 1 BB

The Scoop: De la Cruz played shortstop growing up, but when the Cubs signed him out of the Dominican Republic they were much more impressed with the arm than his bat. Quickly converted to a pitcher, de la Cruz understandably needed a little time to adjust, but he dominated the Dominican Summer League last year in a return trip, and he’s been just as good this season in the Northwest League, where he’s among the league leaders in strikeout rate (9.3 per nine innings), opponent average (.217) and WHIP (1.04). The 6-foot-4 righthander has an above-average fastball and a developing curveball with a clean delivery.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-aug-28-berrios-moves-closer-bigs/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 28, 2015, 03:59:06 pm
Quote
Ed (Surrey): Do you think Javier Baez has made the necessary adjustments to succeed in MLB and if so, will he have more to offer than Addison Russell?

J.J. Cooper: I think they end up fitting together in the Cubs middle infield with Russell at short and Baez at second (although that’s a waste of a very good arm). Yes, I think Baez is starting to realize that he doesn’t have to swing on every pitch like he’s trying to set a Statcast record for HR distance. His bat speed is so good, his hands work very well that if he can tone down some of the noisier parts of his stance/swing he will get to enough of his power to be a solid big leaguer. We’re seeing some signs that he’s doing that in the PCL.


Quote
Justin (Iowa): Could a package of Vogelbach and Alcantara land a mid rotation sp from an AL team this offseason?

J.J. Cooper: No. I think you’d have to have a better top piece in the deal. Vogelbach can hit but he has little trade value because he’s a DH who struggles to play 1B. That’s not the guy teams build a deal around for a mid-rotation starter usually.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 28, 2015, 04:02:05 pm
After two rehab appearances in AZ, Duane Underwood scheduled to make his first start tonight with MB since June 28.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 28, 2015, 05:40:24 pm
4. Eloy Jimenez, lf, Cubs

Team: short-season Eugene (Northwest)

Age: 18

Why He’s Here: .308/.367/.692 (8-for-26), 8 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BB, 3 SO

I'm going way out on a limb here and predicting that if Jimenez maintains his ratio of 1 HR for every K for the rest of his career, he has a decent chance of being an acceptable major league hitter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 28, 2015, 09:28:12 pm
Underwood: 4-3-2-1-1-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_28_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 2-5, RBI

Contreras: 0-2, 2 BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_28_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Je Baez: 4-5, HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, CS

Stinnett: 7-6-1-1-1-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_28_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa postponed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 28, 2015, 10:38:24 pm
Preston Morrison, 7K/3IP.  27K/3BB in 19IP.  He's probably ready for full season ball!  :)  Will be interesting to see how his stuff holds up in A+ next year. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 28, 2015, 11:46:28 pm
Dewees: 2-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_28_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hudson: 2-1-2-0-1-1, HB, WP, 2 E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_28_cubrok_athrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 07:14:41 am
Dylan Cease' first inning on Monday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttCoeWBuC5w
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 29, 2015, 08:34:23 am
Thanks Chris.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 29, 2015, 09:43:06 am
The Pelicans broadcaster tweeted out that Underwood was sitting 94-95.  Hit 96 a couple of times and 97 once.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 29, 2015, 10:46:03 am
Cease has a nice, low maintenance delivery. That's easy cheddar.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 07:45:03 pm
Iowa Gm 1 -

Baez: 2-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_srcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 07:58:29 pm
Baez shows off the glove:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=426451283&sid=milb


He wears some clunky contraption while on the bases:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=421458783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 08:52:54 pm
Almora: 2-3, SB, CS, BB, K

Contreras: 0-2, 2 BB

Johnson: 7-5-1-1-3-8

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 09:42:16 pm
Blackburn removed after two innings:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 29, 2015, 10:07:41 pm
Mesa's season ends:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_athrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 12:00:54 am
South Bend edged 15-0.

Torres: 0-2, K, E

Happs: 0-4, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Iowa Gm 2 -

Baez: 1-6, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_srcaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 30, 2015, 12:25:27 am
Almora: 2-3, SB, CS, BB, K

Contreras: 0-2, 2 BB

Johnson: 7-5-1-1-3-8

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_29_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Nice to see Johnson with a strong K-game.  2.15 ERA isn't bad, and perhaps there's some real talent and potential and not just fluke and luck underlying it? 

This Almora business is also getting kind of interesting.  I've been a skeptic, but this recent run has been fun.  One thing that's impresse me is that after he was so hot, and then he cooled off, he kept the 0-for string relatively short, and then resumed hitting again.  Everybody gets hot and cold sometimes, but the good ones extend the hot and reduce the cold.  I'm hopeful that perhaps he's done exactly that, reducing the cold and extending and perhaps now again renewing the hot.  He was formerly always faulted for his low BB-rate, but while it's lowish, it's not at all unusually so this season.  29BB/387 AB, that's not bad for a non-power guy.  (I sometimes think some of the Cubs might do better to swing a little more aggressively early in the count.)   His IsoD is around 50, so that's not problematic at all.  Battng average up to .275, and while he's got little power he's not powerless, and may still project to grow into a little more, or perhaps adapt into a little more, in time?  Not to be jinxing him or anything.  But given the state of hitting and the Cubs defense, if he could play a good defense and OPS at or a little over .700, that might not be an OK thing to have in a lineup for low salary.  Seems safe that he's going to finsih the season clearly on the + side of the .700-OPS mark, which seemed pretty unlikely 6 weeks ago. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 02:38:17 am
Another Almora catch:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=427975783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 30, 2015, 08:15:06 am
You can really see how slow he is in that video.  I'd guess a high fly with lots of hang-time like that, a lot of center fielders with speed might just run under it and catch that one in stride without being full-extension and falling down at the end.  Nice catch, though. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 30, 2015, 09:09:12 am
I think it is important to remember that Almora isn't slow for a major league player. He is on the slower end for a CF, but routes and getting the correct jump can make up for that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on August 30, 2015, 10:37:16 am
Very true, CUBluejays, re routes vs speed...both are great, but instincts/route to the ball are way more important than speed in CF and everyone agrees Baez takes great routes.

Almora looms as a VERY important piece for Cubs down the road some....we will likely have thumpers (without tons of range) on the corners...if Almora can hit enough, he can stabilize the OF defensively with plus play in CF, despite his lack of speed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on August 30, 2015, 01:25:46 pm
Outfield defense on the major league team hasn't been very good this year, especially lately.  It's part of why I'm still very interested in Almora.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on August 30, 2015, 01:43:55 pm
I meant to say Almora (not Baez) takes great routes in CF...everyone seems to agree about that.   

(Baez may take pretty good routes going after pops from his infield position)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 03:57:28 pm
Baez: 4-5, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_30_srcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 30, 2015, 04:14:05 pm
You can really see how slow he is in that video.  I'd guess a high fly with lots of hang-time like that, a lot of center fielders with speed might just run under it and catch that one in stride without being full-extension and falling down at the end.  Nice catch, though. 
I think it is important to remember that Almora isn't slow for a major league player. He is on the slower end for a CF, but routes and getting the correct jump can make up for that.
Very true, CUBluejays, re routes vs speed...both are great, but instincts/route to the ball are way more important than speed in CF and everyone agrees {Almoa} takes great routes..
Outfield defense on the major league team hasn't been very good this year, especially lately.  It's part of why I'm still very interested in Almora.
...if Almora can hit enough, he can stabilize the OF defensively with plus play in CF, despite his lack of speed.

Agree on all points.  Almora is slow only relative to the exceptional standard of big-league center fielders, not relative to major leaguers as a whole.  and CF speed is less important than jumps/instincts/routes, such that Almora can be a asset defensively despite being slow. 

I just thought that video, involving a high long-hang-time lots-of-time-to-run-under-it high fly, kind of showcased his lack of straight-away speed.

I expect he'll be good, and lots better than Szczur or Denorfia or Fowler, by a long shot.  I just don't think he'll be fast enough to be really a top-end guy, since top-end CFers combine jumps/instinct/routes AND speed besides. 

I do wonder whether perhaps CF speed isn't getting to be one of those things that sophisticates don't talk about any more.  Batting average, K's, outfield speed, sophisticates don't talk about those, that's left more for 5th grade simpletons.  But I think there may be some balls that get caught by guys who both get good jumps/run good routes AND can just run fast, that Almora may be unable to reach.  May keep him out of the 99th percentile. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 30, 2015, 04:15:18 pm
Baez, nice.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on August 30, 2015, 04:17:48 pm
Beeler has allowed one or fewer runs in each of last four starts.  And has allowed more than 2 in only one of last ten starts.  His last Cub start was a total disaster, unfortunately, so it's probably not cool to give him another start.  But at this point, given how HR-philic Haren has been, I think I'd rather go back to Beeler. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 30, 2015, 04:26:10 pm
I would rather go back to Richard.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 30, 2015, 06:08:03 pm
Id rather see Pierce Johnson than either of them...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 30, 2015, 06:09:39 pm
Maddon already ruled out Johnson getting time, sorry.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on August 30, 2015, 06:11:31 pm
Yeah, I know...just stating a personal preference...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on August 30, 2015, 06:30:34 pm
I Really wish he would have moved up to AAA at least.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 07:45:11 pm
Happ: 2-4, 2B, HR, RBI

Torres: DNP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_30_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Tenn:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_30_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Myrtle Beach rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 07:47:08 pm
Baez's 4th hit today. The leg kick seems to happen randomly.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=431386783&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 30, 2015, 07:47:10 pm
Maddon certainly seems to like Herrera.  But he also seems to like Baez.

But most importantly, although Hoyer will certainly listen to Maddon's feedback, Hoyer is the one that will make the decision.  And if Baez performs well in September, I believe Hoyer will put him on the playoff roster.  He is a better defender than Herrera, he can play all the positions that Herrera can play plus probably the outfield in a pinch, and if he hits at all in September, he is as close to a lock for the playoff roster as any bench player can be.

If he strikes out at a 40 % rate, his season will end with the regular season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 07:53:16 pm
One of Baez' hits today was a bunt single.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 30, 2015, 10:18:42 pm
When does Candelario become a bona fide ML prospect?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 10:19:21 pm
Jimenez: 2-5, K

Dewees: 2-5, RBI, SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_30_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 30, 2015, 10:29:04 pm
Eloy is finishing the season in good fashion.  It would be nice if he was able to fulfil the promise he showed as a 16 year old.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 30, 2015, 11:07:13 pm
Eloy is finishing the season in good fashion.  It would be nice if he was able to fulfil the promise he showed as a 16 year old.

He finished the season with 16 hits in his last 49 AB, for about a .325 BA during that stretch, with 30 total bases (4 HR), and only 8 Ks (as well as only 2 walks) during that stretch.  For the year he had 38 K's in 221 PA.  Listed as 6'4" and 205 pounds.

He turns 19 in three months.  The league average age there is two years older than he is.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 11:18:30 pm
Eugene still has 6 games left.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 30, 2015, 11:23:33 pm
details, details....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 30, 2015, 11:31:52 pm
Eugene still has 6 games left.

That is why I said finishing, rather than finished.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 30, 2015, 11:40:27 pm
Should've made it known I was responded to Jes' comment.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 31, 2015, 12:05:50 am
When does Candelario become a bona fide ML prospect?

I'd say he already has, based on his performance in AA. He's a good and improving defender at 3B, a switch hitter with reasonable power and a decent BB/K ratio. I'd add him to 40-man Winter roster instead of Corey Black if it were up to me.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 31, 2015, 12:07:49 am
I was very happy to see Neil Ramirez make a rehab appearance for Tennessee. I'm hopeful that he'll be back in Chicago in early September.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on August 31, 2015, 08:11:22 am
A healthy Neil Ramirez could be a key addition for the playoff drive.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 31, 2015, 06:08:31 pm
Don't know if Carlos Pimentel has any major league ability, but he was named PCL RH starter of the year today.


http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150831&content_id=146464020&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t451&sid=t451
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on August 31, 2015, 06:58:21 pm
Don't know if Carlos Pimentel has any major league ability, but he was named PCL RH starter of the year today.


http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150831&content_id=146464020&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t451&sid=t451

First I-Cub to win that award since J.R. Mathes in 2009. If the front office thought he was better than Beeler, he'd have been called up for a doubleheader by now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on August 31, 2015, 07:03:15 pm
First I-Cub to win that award since J.R. Mathes in 2009. If the front office thought he was better than Beeler, he'd have been called up for a doubleheader by now.
Doubleheader call ups were often decided by where Iowa was in their rotation.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 07:29:42 pm
Cubs DHs have been scheduled well in advance this season. No problem to set up Iowa rotation in whatever way suits the major league rotation.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 07:39:31 pm
Almora with a double and a triple so far tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 31, 2015, 07:58:25 pm
The other Baez is certainly closing out the season in impressive fashion.  Another home run tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 08:17:57 pm
The other Baez is certainly closing out the season in impressive fashion.  Another home run tonight.

Jeffrey Baez will be subject to the Rule 5 unless rostered this off-season.  Kind of unusual for a slow-A position player to be drafted by anybody and Baez on fringes of Cubs Top 30, but is there any plausible argument to roster him this off-season? Thoughts?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on August 31, 2015, 08:38:40 pm
Jeffrey Baez will be subject to the Rule 5 unless rostered this off-season.  Kind of unusual for a slow-A position player to be drafted by anybody and Baez on fringes of Cubs Top 30, but is there any plausible argument to roster him this off-season? Thoughts?

If I understand Rule 5 correctly, I see no reason to roster him, because there is no reason to believe any team would be willing to burn a roster spot for the entire season to carry him in 2016.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on August 31, 2015, 08:41:08 pm
Almora with a double and a triple so far tonight.

Just love seeing these reports on Almora. Things hadn't looked terribly good for him there for a while. One of my fondest hopes is that he makes it as a solid major league CFer.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 31, 2015, 08:58:23 pm
Almora: 2-5, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB

Contreras: 2-5, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_31_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 31, 2015, 09:41:07 pm
Occasionally a team might take a low A pitcher in the rule 5 draft because it is fairly easy to "hide" an extra pitcher in the bull pen.  But in these days of the 5 or even 4 man bench, it would be difficult for most teams to have someone like that on the bench the entire year.

Baez is not a meaningless prospect, but neither is he a great loss at this point.  In order to roster him, we would probably have to lose someone that we consider more valuable.

He might have some value as a second piece in a trade this winter after the draft is over, but I don't think I would add him to the 40 man roster this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 10:59:54 pm
Yeah, agree with that, Dave.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 11:01:46 pm
Almora slash line second half of season (209 PAs):  312-377-484.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on August 31, 2015, 11:24:57 pm
6 more innings of shutout ball for Ryan Williams.

Tools are great because they point to future potential.  And players that are old for their league often succeed without great tools because of the inexperience or incompetence of their competition.  But regardless of tools, this kind of success in AA needs to be taken seriously.  If he can have the same success next year in Iowa, he will deserve to be near the top of the prospect chart.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on August 31, 2015, 11:44:29 pm
Williams-very low walks-low homers-modest Ks. Sinkerballer.

Callis/Mayo say he works at 88-90, touching 92. #30 Cubs prospect. Yeah,the low walks/low homers resembles Kyle Hendricks in minors.

Guy like this--who throws strikes and grounders--very likely to get a decent chance in big leagues. Pretty good for a guy who signed for $1,000.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on August 31, 2015, 11:56:22 pm
Happ: 2-5, 2B, K

Clifton: 6 -3-1-1-2-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_31_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa faced Julio Urias:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_31_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Gm 1 of Mesa's playoffs suspended.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 01, 2015, 01:23:19 am
Almora slash line second half of season (209 PAs):  312-377-484.

Wow. That's REALLY good...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 01, 2015, 01:26:01 am
He's still only 21, or the age of most college draftees.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 01:37:43 am
Those stats are exclusively wrapped up in August where Almora's hitting .352 and averaging a double every 9 at-bats. Since those numbers are clearly unsustainable, let's see where he levels off at when he gets to Iowa. Hopefully, it's a sign something has clicked. But huge outlier months make me suspicious.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 02:16:01 am
Not exclusively. Almora slugged .457 in July (but low BA).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 02:21:20 am
Not exclusively. Almora slugged .457 in July (but low BA).

That's just more evidence of his strange season. He hit 3 homers in 12 games in July. In August he has 1 homer in 31 games despite hitting .350.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 02:28:27 am
Hard to know what's outlier or strange with a developing age 21 player.

The second half season performance is almost always way more important than the first half--for any young player. So, really good thing the second half is strong and bodes well for future.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 01, 2015, 07:31:01 am
.....The second half season performance is almost always way more important than the first half--for any young player. So, really good thing the second half is strong and bodes well for future.

I get that, but with a caution.  There's a first-half and an April every year. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on September 01, 2015, 07:44:30 am
Almora slash line second half of season (209 PAs):  312-377-484.

Salivating.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 01, 2015, 01:22:52 pm
No doubt, the first half was real. But you're looking for development, and it's very clear that we're seeing progression from Almora in the second half.

He *should* be a high BABIP guy, given his reputed hitting acumen and relative speed. Whether it's homers in July or doubles in August, he *should* be hitting for more power as he matures.

None of this means that he's going to be a successful big leaguer, or that he'll even be able to handle AAA. But it sure as heck looks really good out of a 21 year old who hadn't really yet lived up to the hype. It seems as though one of Theo's favorite quotes regarding prospects is that development isn't always linear. Fingers crossed, this is real and sustainable from Almora, and he's finally tapping into the promise that so, so many have seen for so long.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 01:39:34 pm
All prospects are "iffy". 

Bryant seems to have made it. 

Alcantara has not, so far. 

Russell seems to have made it. 

Baez has not, so far. 

Rizzo is successful after several years. 

Castro has been less so. 

Soler has been up and down all year.

Almora, like all of the above, is not a "sure thing"  But he looks more promising right now than he did two months ago.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 02:09:12 pm
All prospects are "iffy".........Almora, like all of the above, is not a "sure thing"  But he looks more promising right now than he did two months ago.

I would not lump "all prospects" into one "iffy" category.

Occasionally, there are "sure things"---but we don't know precisely the eventual range for them between solid player and star player. So, one could say that Bryant and Russell seem to have made it but open question where they get to. That will depend on their ability to make adjustments going forward. Bryant was a "sure thing" to at least be a solid regular at some position, absent career-changing injury.

Two months ago, was looking doubtful that Almora would be decent bet to be even solid regular.  Now, looks like a decent chance to be solid regular. Wholly different category of "iffy" than Bryant.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 01, 2015, 02:44:53 pm
Black, Pierce Johnson, Zastryzy, Contreras and Candelario are going to the AFL.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 03:07:56 pm
It is appropriate to lump all prospects into the iffy category because all prospects ARE iffy.  There is no such thing as a sure thing, and even prospects that were rated the best in baseball have failed.

I did not say that all prospects are equal.  Obviously, some have a better chance of reaching their ceiling than others.  But all are "iffy".
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 03:12:13 pm
Probably the last chance for Black.  For Contreras and Candelario, it is a good sign that they are again serious prospects.  For Johnson, hopefully, it is a big step to the majors.  And for Zastryzny, hopefully they have seen something that can be corrected or greatly improved.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 03:42:51 pm
Black as a reliever has been a bust. Move him back to the rotation.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 03:58:08 pm
It is appropriate to lump all prospects into the iffy category because all prospects ARE iffy.  There is no such thing as a sure thing, and even prospects that were rated the best in baseball have failed.

I did not say that all prospects are equal.  Obviously, some have a better chance of reaching their ceiling than others.  But all are "iffy".

In a given year, I'd agree that the #1 prospect might not necessarily be a "sure thing." Don't know if Brian Buxton is a sure thing. Ben Grieve, Todd Van Poppel, Delmon Young. All # 1 overall at one time.

But, some prospects, as a practical matter, are sure things when on cusp of majors.  By then, can see a lot. Bryce Harper, ARod, Mauer, Strawberry. Bryant was basically a sure thing to be at least a solid regular, not a failure.

Only thing really "iffy" about Bryant was whether more than solid regular and, if so, by how much. Never anything iffy about Harper, other than whether he would reach current level (and maybe beyond).

Never sure if player will reach upside. If we define failure as falling significantly short of upside, would agree no sure things. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 04:02:53 pm
Prospects as good as Harper have failed.  No prospect is a sure thing.

I am not going to quibble about the true meaning of the word "iffy".  Talk to Jes or bring Scottie back to the board.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 04:38:49 pm
Just pointing out that cliches like "no sure things" have exceptions.

And who is Jes?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 05:04:34 pm
Bonifacio back at 2B in Iowa lineup today. Singles in first inning. 

Opposing team 2B today: Darwin Barney.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 01, 2015, 05:04:59 pm

And who is Jes?

Reb's a wise man.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 01, 2015, 05:20:20 pm
Occasionally, there are "sure things"---but we don't know precisely the eventual range for them between solid player and star player.

We also often do not know they are "sure things" until after the fact.

First round #1 draft picks have a rather high flame-out rate, but I suspect most teams drafting them considered them "sure things" at the time.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 06:20:06 pm
From Kiley McDaniel chat today at Fangraphs:

Comment From Daragh
Oscar De La Cruz…… Is he a notable prospect for you?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he’s on the list

Kiley McDaniel: 6’4, some athleticism, 90-93 heavy sinker, above avg curve, starter traits, some projection. Lots to like.

Kiley McDaniel: Tracked down this note from a scout on De La Cruz earlier this year: “he didn’t hesitate to take food from the premium seating buffet between innings, so you know he has cojones.”
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 06:40:00 pm
Torres: 3-4, 2 2B, RBI

Happ: 2-3, RBI, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 08:04:09 pm
Bonefacio really wants to make the playoff roster.  So far tonight he is three for three with three stolen bases.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 08:40:07 pm
Almora's triple Monday:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=437406483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 09:27:02 pm
Zagunis: 1-2, 3 BB, K

Skulina: 5-1-0-0-0-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Mesa loses Game 1 of the playoffs.

Cease: 3-1-1-1-2-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_31_mrnrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on September 01, 2015, 09:53:14 pm
Myrtle Beach drew 16 walks in a 9 inning game and only scored 3 runs.  That would seemingly be pretty hard to accomplish.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on September 01, 2015, 09:55:11 pm
Anyone know who is pitching for Myrtle Beach Thursday?  I'm thinking about going to the game since the Cubs are off and they're playing the Canons. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 01, 2015, 10:00:36 pm
Don't know for sure, but Tyler Ihreg pitched on Saturday, so unless they had a day off, he might be due on Thursday.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 01, 2015, 10:10:54 pm
The minor league app lists Underwood for Thurs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on September 01, 2015, 10:16:15 pm
Thanks Dave and CBJ.  I'll probably go.  I was really excited when the Cubs switched to the Carolina League because now I can watch them here when they play the Canons.  Hopefully next year I get to see Torres.

I forgot the Canons are now the Potomac Nationals. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 01, 2015, 10:23:03 pm
Iowa loses game one of a DH in 18.


Alcantara: 0-8, 4 K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 1-4, BB

Black: 1-5-5-2-1-1

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_jaxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 01, 2015, 10:43:35 pm
Rough line for AA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 01, 2015, 10:47:44 pm
Yeah, that's probably pretty high on his list of worst games ever...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2015, 10:52:10 pm
Alcantara is about 200 OPS points below his Iowa showing of 2014.

Really dramatic difference.

Guessing combination of loss of confidence and scouting based on what troubled him in majors last year. Never a big fan of Alcantara but his falloff is very disappointing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 02, 2015, 01:42:57 am
Steele: 4-1-0-0-0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa Gm 2:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_01_iowaaa_okcaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 02, 2015, 02:47:22 pm
Brian Schlitter cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Iowa.

Don't get too excited.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 02, 2015, 08:42:55 pm
Gleyber Torres and Jeffrey Baez both have been moved up to Myrtle Beach. The Pelicans will be in the playoffs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 02, 2015, 09:21:40 pm
Happ: 0-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_02_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 0-2, BB, E

Baez: 1-4, 3B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_02_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Tenn off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 02, 2015, 11:17:05 pm
Dewees: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB, CS

De La Cruz: 6-3-1-1-0-4

Araujo: 1-2/3 -1-0-0-0-5


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_02_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_02_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 03, 2015, 07:36:57 am
De La Cruz: 6-3-1-1-0-4..

His WHIP is now an even 1.0.  No red flags on him.  Size is good, age is good, control is good, K-stuff is good, projection is good, current stuff/velocity is good.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 03, 2015, 06:45:14 pm
C.J Edwards activated from Iowa DL.

Think Iowa has 5 games left in season, so figures to get some Iowa action. Presumably, Cubs will then decide about a September call-up, or not.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 03, 2015, 09:09:33 pm
Torres: 0-3, K

Underwood: 5-3-1-1-3-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_03_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 0-3, 2 BB, CS

Stinnett: 6-2/3 -5-5-5-1-7, 3 HR

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_03_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on September 03, 2015, 09:32:36 pm
I went to the Pelicans game tonight.  Not much to report on offense.  Torres is smaller than I thought.  He looked pretty good on defense.  Second batter of the game for the Nationals he caught a line drive and he was able to double off the runner at first with a good throw. 

Zagunis looked ok.  Hit a couple of balls hard including a rocket for his one hit.  I wasn't very impressed with Jeffrey Baez.  Only one game but he struck out badly and then hit into an easy double play.  I don't know if my eyes deceived me but it really looks like he is a little overweight for a CFer.  Dunston Jr. didn't look very good either against the lefty.  Chesny Young got a leadoff single on a grounder through the middle and didn't do anything else. 

Underwood looked pretty good and I can definitely see him being a major league pitcher. Got in some trouble when he walked the leadoff hitter, gave up a hit, and then hit a batter that was trying to bunt.  Gave up a sac fly and nothing else.  No gun in the stadium but I would guess somewhere between 90-95 on the fastball and seemed to have the makings of some good offspeed stuff.

I went with my son and unfortunately we got there a little late so we didn't get too many autographs sitting on the Cubs side.  Got a couple of the relivers.  David Berg is the nicest player I have ever met.  Came up to us and signed my son's hat.  He introduced himself as David and shook my hand.  Asked us how us Cubs fans came to be all the way there.  Just a really polite kid.  I'll be rooting hard for him to make it. 

The only other player that really stood out is Jeremy Null.  That guy is HUGE.  He's every bit the 6'7 he is listed and is a massive human being.  I'm not sure what kind of stuff he has but he looks the part of a pitcher. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 03, 2015, 10:11:24 pm
Edwards: 1 IP, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_03_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Vogelbach: 1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB

Contreras: 3-6, 2B, RBI, K

Almora: 0-5, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_03_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 03, 2015, 11:10:59 pm
Jimenez: 1-5, 2B, 2 RBI, K

Alzolay: 5-2/3 -3-1-1-1-10

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_03_eugasx_skvasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 03, 2015, 11:42:20 pm
Thanks for the great report, PRCubFan!  Cool stuff about Berg and the other young guys.  Don't give up on Jeffrey Baez...he may need to lose a few lbs, but he can still really scoot!  He's got some pop and a plus arm, too.  Interesting young player who will be worth following.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on September 04, 2015, 01:20:06 pm
I've been a big believer in Jeffrey Baez for the last few years but with his terrible start this season, I thought I was wrong. He has come alive the second half of the year and I really think he could be a nice young outfielder. Lets hope his development continues in a positive direction.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 04, 2015, 07:02:44 pm
Keith Law tweeted Brad Markey has been up to 96 today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 04, 2015, 07:17:22 pm
Keith Law tweeted Brad Markey has been up to 96 today.

Wow, fascinating.  1.21 ERA with a 0.7 WHIP and 40:6:1 K/BB/HR is more interesting and less puzzling if he touches 96. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 04, 2015, 07:25:03 pm
Wow, indeed. IF Markey can touch mid-90s and sit low 90s, he's likely to be a solid rotation guy...has always known how to pitch, good command, GREAT competitor!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 04, 2015, 07:52:21 pm
Markey through 6 innings...6 3 0 0 0 6...72 pitches, 57 strikes!  If he's really touching 96, he's now a Top 10 Cub prospect.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 04, 2015, 07:56:59 pm
Had the Markey numbers a bit off...73 pitches, 56 strikes through SEVEN innings 7 3 0 0 0 6!  He's carving up Wilmington...they're not great, but they're a Hi-A team.



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 04, 2015, 08:29:51 pm
Almora removed in the bottom of the first after a guy doubles to left.  Monday's their last game.  Will they be in playoffs?  Either way, pending what his presumed injury is, this might mark the end of his season.  .272 average, .727 OPS, I think. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 04, 2015, 08:39:22 pm
Almora ran into the outfield wall.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 04, 2015, 09:11:30 pm
Happ: 1-2, SF, RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_04_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, 2 RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_04_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 04, 2015, 09:57:47 pm
Almora ran into the outfield wall.

I hope it wasnt anything like Bump Bailey did.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 04, 2015, 10:45:57 pm
Iowa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_04_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Johnson: 7 IP, 1 R

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_04_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 04, 2015, 11:32:38 pm
Eugene:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_04_eugasx_hilasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 05, 2015, 06:58:20 pm
Myrtle Beach Gm 1 -

Torres: 2-3

Tseng: 5-4-2-2-1-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 05, 2015, 07:00:23 pm
Tseng with 33 Ks in last 31 IP, over last 5 starts. Nice to see the Ks for a developing pitcher.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 05, 2015, 08:52:40 pm
South Bend scores the only two earned runs of the game and loses handily:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 0-3, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_myrafa_wilafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 05, 2015, 09:57:08 pm
Contreras: 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB,   4 points ahead for batting title

Almora: DNP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_eugasx_hilasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 05, 2015, 10:20:46 pm
Edwards: 1-1-0-0-0-1

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_05_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 05, 2015, 10:36:57 pm
Tseng with 33 Ks in last 31 IP, over last 5 starts. Nice to see the Ks for a developing pitcher.

Yeah, that's pretty nice way to wrap up the season. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on September 06, 2015, 06:39:46 am
Eric Leal seems to have righted his ship after an awful start. He's been pretty good lately.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on September 06, 2015, 11:51:10 am
First time in several months that Edwards has not allowed a walk in two consecutive outings. Bring him up!

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 06, 2015, 01:52:09 pm
Eloy Jimenez RBI single to right:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=457052483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 06, 2015, 03:07:56 pm
Torres: 1-4, 2 K, CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_06_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 06, 2015, 08:00:32 pm
Happ: 0-3, K,  3-19 in September

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_06_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 06, 2015, 08:20:21 pm
Torres: 1-4, 2 K, CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_06_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Torres was about two years younger than the league average in the Midwest League.  He is four years younger than the league average in the Carolina league.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 06, 2015, 09:58:16 pm
The Emeralds choke away postseason play by getting swept.


Jimenez: 1-3, RBI, 2 K

Dewees: 2-3, BB, K, 2 SB

Araujo: 4-2-1-1-0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_06_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


The Pimentel vs Pimentel matchup goes to the Cubs:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_06_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 03:53:52 pm
Happ: 1-3, BB, K

Clifton: 6-1/3 -2-0-0-0-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_07_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 0-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_07_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_07_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 03:55:23 pm
Willson Contreras is your Southern League batting champion.


Contreras: 4-4, SB  (.333)

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_07_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 07, 2015, 04:21:03 pm
Contreras has hit over .300 every month but July.  When he hit .290. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 07, 2015, 05:18:40 pm
I think he's legit.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 05:50:23 pm
Hit .332 in the first half, .333 the second.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Eastcoastfan on September 07, 2015, 05:56:32 pm
Because development is not linear, that stronger second half may have greater implications for talent evaluators.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 07, 2015, 06:22:31 pm
lol
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 06:29:26 pm
Tennessee's season is over:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_07_tenaax_blxaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 07:41:06 pm
Contreras' last hit of the year:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=462093583&sid=milb


He has a pretty simple and short swing. I can see why his K's are so low.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 07, 2015, 09:45:54 pm
Some comments from Contreras on his season:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150907&content_id=147961136&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 07, 2015, 11:37:06 pm
Chris, thanks for the great Contreras article and for, once again this season, providing the minor league highlights on a DAILY basis...MUCH appreciated!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 07, 2015, 11:54:26 pm
As always, Chris, thanks for all the minor league score and article posts.  However, you missed a day towards the end of July.  I hope that won't become a habit.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 08, 2015, 01:53:16 am
You may be the glass half empty type but you're the one who makes this topic worth a damn Chris.

Thanks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 08, 2015, 07:15:20 am
Yup, thanks a ton, Chris. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 08, 2015, 07:17:05 am
Very sorry to see the minor league season end.  Always fun to look back at the end and see some of the unexpected surprises, and some guys we wanted to do well who did. 

But also kind of fun this year where when the minor league games stop, the major league games are still more than interesting!  Nice change.  :)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 08, 2015, 07:21:31 am
Also pretty amazing that compared to our top listings of a year or two ago, the attrition level has been so negligible.  Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Soler, Russell, it looks like each of these are going to make it to varying degree of excellence.  Almora now looks like he's got a decent shot to be a functional guy.  Out of all of our higher-rated prospects, Alcantara is really the single guy who's washed out. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 08, 2015, 10:25:12 am
It will also be fun working out the new "top 10" list.  For the first time in years, the changes to the list will more often be because of guys moving to the big leagues, instead of guys dropping out because of poor performance.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on September 08, 2015, 11:20:39 am
Wow.  Is the minor league season over already?  Time for the annual "Thanks for the Chris Report" summaries of minor league games post.  I read all of them.  Thanks!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 08, 2015, 11:32:22 am
Thanks for all the work Chris.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on September 08, 2015, 11:51:14 am
Yes, thanks, Chris.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on September 08, 2015, 01:20:24 pm
and Chris, I too much appreciate the box scores you take the time to post... thanks very much
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 08, 2015, 01:57:18 pm
Craig, I don't think Alcantara has washed out...he still has the speed and power...maybe some work with our coaches this fall/winter can help him turn the corner. (and maybe not)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 08, 2015, 04:17:00 pm
Alcantara has certainly advanced less than his peers on the top ten list.  I suspect his trade value has also fallen further than any of the others.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on September 08, 2015, 04:30:41 pm
Did Craig curse AA along the line?  I can't remember.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 08, 2015, 05:29:26 pm
I wouldn't be a bit surprised.  Everything went to his head after he destroyed poor Nic Jackson's career just so he could watch him play in Fargo.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 09, 2015, 01:38:33 am
Keith Law scouting report:

The Chicago Cubs' system has produced three of the best rookies in the National League this year in Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and the surging Addison Russell, yet the cupboard is far from bare, with their best prospect now 18-year-old shortstop Gleyber Torres. Signed out of Venezuela in 2013 for $1.7 million, Torres hit .293/.353/.386 this year as the Midwest League's second-youngest regular, earning a promotion last week to high-A Myrtle Beach.

Torres has a very easy, sweet right-handed swing, keeping his head steady throughout, with great hand-eye coordination that allowed him to still line out to center field even when he was fooled by a changeup and met the ball well out in front of the plate. He's incredibly smooth at shortstop, especially coming across the bag on a double play, with good hands and plenty of arm for the position. The Cubs didn't exactly need another star infield prospect, but that's what they appear to have in Torres, who needs only to get stronger to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Myrtle Beach started 19th-round pick Brad Markey, an unheralded right-hander out of Virginia Tech who was 91-96 with a hard curveball and outstanding control Friday night at Wilmington. Markey, who has walked 10 batters in 84 innings across two levels, is about 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-10 with a squat build and a very compact delivery. He's probably a reliever in the long run with the lack of fastball plane and just a fringy third pitch, but the way he attacks the strike zone and the potential for that curveball to end up plus should keep him in the rotation at least through Double-A.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 09, 2015, 08:45:09 am
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-willson-contreras-receiving-praise-20150908-story.html
Quote
Reliever Neil Ramirez seemed just as eager to talk Tuesday about Double-A Tennessee catcher Willson Contreras as much as rejoining the Chicago Cubs after completing his minor league rehabilitation assignment.

"He’s awesome," Ramirez said. "I threw to him almost every time. He calls a game well, He's got a cannon and can hit. It was fun being down there with those guys, especially him. I like the way he calls a game.

"He’s pretty much got it all."
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 09, 2015, 08:47:26 am
Stuff about game calling etc. is encouraging. 

I wonder how much the language factor impacts.  In interview the other day, I believe he spoke through coach rather than giving direct interview in his own English.  For an outfielder, who cares.  But for a catcher, may be a little harder. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on September 09, 2015, 08:47:35 am
Thanks for the Ramirez comment on Contreras, craig. Really encouraging. Too bad he can't hit.    ;)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 09, 2015, 06:37:11 pm
Stuff about game calling etc. is encouraging. 

I wonder how much the language factor impacts.  In interview the other day, I believe he spoke through coach rather than giving direct interview in his own English.  For an outfielder, who cares.  But for a catcher, may be a little harder. 

When he flashes the finger signs, would those be in Spanish?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 09, 2015, 07:39:33 pm
Craig, Neil Ramirez may speak Spanish...if he doesn't, his ringing endorsement of Contreras suggests he's gonna be fine with his language skills (which will improve in time).

Everyone has always suggested Contreras is an ultra-competitive, do-what-it-takes type of guy.  I'll too hope he sharpens his English skills between now and next spring.

Contreras certainly appears to have MAJOR upside!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 09, 2015, 08:42:00 pm
Myrtle Beach loses game 1 of its best-of-three playoff series.


Torres: 1-4, HR, RBI

Underwood: 6-7-4-4-0-3, 2 HR

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_09_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 10, 2015, 04:20:35 am
Gleyber Torres crushed his homer:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=469012883&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 10, 2015, 07:51:20 am
Wow, deep for a guy with only 3 HR on the year.

Torres is a very stocky build.  Sometimes 18 -> 21 there is much "filling out" that adds power.  But he might not fill out too much.  Hopefully he can reconfigure and add some upper-body strength; but his lower half already seems very solid.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 10, 2015, 08:50:21 am
Myrtle Beach hosts game 2 of their playoffs tonight and it's on MiLB tv at 7pm eastern...Markey is pitching...if someone watches that game, can you please report on Markey (and any other Pelican players).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 10, 2015, 09:53:02 am
Part of adding power at that early age is learning how to get backspin on the ball at contact, rather than hitting topspin or knuckling line drives...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 10, 2015, 10:59:59 am
Dave, I know next to nothing about actually PLAYING the game of baseball, certainly nothing like you with your son. That said, I found this article pretty interesting, and it touches on the whole backspin thing.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-quit-chopping-wood-dont-go-for-backspin/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jack Birdbath on September 10, 2015, 11:18:37 am
Hitting a baseball is somewhat like hitting a golf ball with a driver.  You don't want your angle of attack to be steep.  With that path, it's very hard to make consistent flush contact and the spin rate is almost always way too high. In golf, the holy grail with a driver is a shallow angle of attack with a low spin rate.  That's a swing with huge power and results in bullets that fly straight and long (and also will release on the ground).  That's the tour swing and how so many of these little guys can hit it so far.  The baseball swing is not exactly the same but the principles are roughly the same.  Swinging through the zone with a flat or slight uppercut is probably the best way to make consistent, hard contact.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 10, 2015, 01:07:51 pm
Hitting a moving target and off a tee are different.

The correct swing depends on location.  Sometimes it will be a flatter swing.  Low Pitches are going to need more of an uppercut.  I would lean more to a slight uppercut.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 10, 2015, 01:43:04 pm
Yes, both of those viewpoints are correct...you can get backspin without the 'chopping wood' approach...and most of that is doing exactly what Cletus describes, which is the rotational approach.

Linear vs. rotational approaches are explained pretty well here:

http://myteachingpro.com/tbi/Instruction/PurePowerHitting/Mechanics/RotationalvsLinear.aspx

and

https://www.batspeed.com/tf.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 10, 2015, 03:16:10 pm
Interesting piece from BA on Underwood's outing Wednesday.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/milb-playoff-roundup-winston-salem-handles-duane-underwood-early/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 10, 2015, 08:15:34 pm
Brad Markey has a no-hitter through 7 innings in MB playoff game tonight.  Faced 22 batters, one over minimum.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 10, 2015, 08:27:13 pm
Markey gives up a double in the 8th.

Should have gone with Strop to open the 8th. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 10, 2015, 09:18:41 pm
Heh
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 10, 2015, 11:49:38 pm
Myrtle Beach survives to force a game three.

Torres: 0-4, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_10_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on September 11, 2015, 07:04:23 am
Switching gears a little bit, there was a lot of talk about the Cubs obliterating the budget for international prospects which would preclude them from doing so next year. I don't recall what our cap was but it doesn't seem like we signed many of the top guys (unless we get Martinez). Did the Cubs go over their cap number this year?  Are we still actively working for additional players?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 11, 2015, 07:28:49 am
MLB .com has moved Martinez down to #4 on the international list.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 11, 2015, 10:05:45 am
The Cubs went over the limit on the first day of the new signing period.

The Cubs identified the fact that it is probably better to go over in one year and suffer the penalty in the next couple of years.  The problem is that a dozen other teams identified the same thing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 11, 2015, 10:21:29 am
Maybe they should have staggered it so that our year to go over isn't the same year that the Dodgers go over?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 11, 2015, 11:02:01 am
I assume that was a minor consideration, but I think the major factor is the possibility that there will be an IFA draft in 2017, which will make going over the limit moot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 11, 2015, 12:03:41 pm
Good point, forgot about that...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 11, 2015, 08:36:40 pm
Myrtle Beach holds on to advance:

Soler: 1-2, 2B, BB

Torres: 1-3, SB, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_11_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 11, 2015, 09:18:17 pm
Useful that Soler can continue rehab in competitive games.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 11, 2015, 09:47:37 pm
Terrific to have Soler back.  And fun to have Myrtle get another series, some more AB for Soler, maybe Tseng will get another start in that series and maybe Underwood another too.  Fun to extend the enjoyable minor-league season just a little longer.  Would be cool if some of the Myrtle Beach guys who were part of the hugely successful Kane County team last year end up with another terrific winning season. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 13, 2015, 07:36:44 pm
Pelicans nearly blow game one of the championship series but win in extras.


Soler: 1-4, 2B, RBI, IBB, 3 K

Torres: 0-4, 2 K

Tseng: 6-3-1-1-1-4

Berg: 2-0-0-0-0-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_13_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 13, 2015, 08:35:40 pm
Those single A pitchers are making life tough on Jorge.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 14, 2015, 08:19:08 pm
Berg has been doing well at Myrtle.  Not K-dominant, but he's been effective.  Saves another playoff game tonight, 2-0.

Skulina with an excellent game, 6K, 2 walks, 1 single in 5 shutout innings. 

I'm still somewhat hopeful that he'll do well if he could get a full healthy season in. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 14, 2015, 09:05:53 pm
Pelicans one win from a title.


Caratini: 2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB

Soler: 1-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_14_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 14, 2015, 10:47:05 pm
Caratini has been really hot in this series. 

His second half numbers look pretty interesting, offensively, for a catcher who just turned 22:  .277/.359/.416/.775  He's been lots hotter than that in the playoffs, and in August/September.  K/BB was comparable (or better?) first half, but no HR till June, and his BABIP has improved as the year has progressed.  Hit quite a few doubles, walks quite a bit, doesn't K much, but hasn't shown much HR power.  If he was to somehow emerge with some HR power, he might be pretty interesting offensively.  Perhaps so even without. 

I wonder if he'll add any HR power, outside of Myrtle? 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on September 14, 2015, 10:47:51 pm
Many of the Pelicans were on the 2014 Kane County Cougars that went undefeated in the Midwest League playoffs last year. I believe they were 7-0. This year, they're 4-1, and all of their remaining games will be played in Myrtle Beach.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on September 15, 2015, 08:14:34 am
Instructional League roster

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/09/cubs-release-instructional-league-roster-happ-to-play-2b-ifa-debuts-and-top-pitching-prospects/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 11:52:52 am
While the Cubs only have 2 pitchers that have TORP potential in Underwood and Cease, they have a bunch of middle of the rotation and back of the rotation guys that will be in AA/AAA next year.  It is nice to see Skulina returning to form and Cubs Den mentioned that the decreased velocity last year might have helped his pitchability.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on September 15, 2015, 02:22:00 pm
While the Cubs only have 2 pitchers that have TORP potential in Underwood and Cease, they have a bunch of middle of the rotation and back of the rotation guys that will be in AA/AAA next year.  It is nice to see Skulina returning to form and Cubs Den mentioned that the decreased velocity last year might have helped his pitchability.

I'd say it's a bit early to write off Bryan Hudson and Oscar De La Cruz, and perhaps Trevor Clifton.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 02:27:09 pm
Oh they have plenty of plenty of pitchers in the lower minors that are interesting. 

Hudson to get to TORP needs a bumb in velocity.  De La Cruz needs to so premium stuff at a higher level.  Clifton has to improve his command.  I'm far from writing them off, but right now for me they are behind Cease and Underwood in terms of potential.  Cease has more stuff to work on as well, but none of those guys has his fastball, which gives him a leg up on everybody.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 15, 2015, 02:52:13 pm
I'd say it's a bit early to write off Bryan Hudson and Oscar De La Cruz, and perhaps Trevor Clifton.

If we're going to peg those guys as TOR stuff guys at this point in their careers, there would be 200+ TOR stuff  pitching prospects around baseball under that standard. There isn't.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 15, 2015, 03:08:52 pm
^
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 15, 2015, 03:12:58 pm
I'd say it's a stretch to suggest Underwood and Cease have TORP potential. Part of what makes a TORP is control, which neither pitcher has.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 03:40:59 pm
Underwood's control has gotten better every year, I think it is reasonable to say he could be a #2 if everything clicks.

Cease, I mentioned, has to work on his command/control.  I also view it on a sliding scale, if he's sitting 95+ it doesn't have to be that great.  The first year back from TJS, even MLB pitchers will lose command, so it isn't a huge shock that Cease struggled with it.  I mostly give him TORP because of the fastball.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on September 15, 2015, 04:42:11 pm
Arrietta wasn't known for his control until recently.  Control can appear with development.  I LOVE having an exciting minor league system.  With that said we can make moves at the MLB level to address finding TOR arms.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on September 15, 2015, 05:36:00 pm
I think the standard for TORP is too high.  There are a number of teams with multiple aces.   I would say about 20% of the regular starters in MLB should be considered TORP.  As it stands today 10-15 starters in all of baseball are considered number 1's.  IMO that is too low. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 15, 2015, 05:53:12 pm
Being the team's best starter, when it has a mediocre or worse pitching staff, does NOT make that pitcher an ace or a TORP.  Seems to me that 10-15 aces is likely all that the majors is likely to have right now.  If you want to come up with another definition which you use for your posts, there certainly is nothing wrong with that, but that doesn't mean you are going to persuade other people to join you.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 15, 2015, 06:26:55 pm
Every team has a TOR starter but does that mean they have s legitimate ace?

I think not.

There's probably less than 25 legitimate ones.

We just so happen to be lucky enough to have 2 of them.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on September 15, 2015, 06:48:23 pm
25???
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on September 15, 2015, 07:03:33 pm
So what kind of stats should a TOR have? I have my own opinion but I'm interested.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 07:24:37 pm
I tend to go with more of a scouting definition and you kind of now it when you see it.

If you want a stat I would say roughly a 5 WAR pitcher for multiple season would be a #1 and a #2 would have multiple 3 WAR seasons. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 15, 2015, 08:32:27 pm
I think one way is to simply use top-10, top-15, top-20, top-25 as a sense. Depending on how elitist you want to be. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on September 15, 2015, 09:03:39 pm
I tend to go with more of a scouting definition and you kind of now it when you see it.

If you want a stat I would say roughly a 5 WAR pitcher for multiple season would be a #1 and a #2 would have multiple 3 WAR seasons.

According to that standard Wainwright,  Cueto, Bumgarner, Geinke and Sonny Gray were not TOR pitchers last year.  Like I said, I think you are setting an almost impossible standard for TOR. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 15, 2015, 09:23:46 pm
All 5 of them are aces.

I went back and looked at the numbers and I stand by my number.

There are less than 25.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 09:40:08 pm
According to that standard Wainwright,  Cueto, Bumgarner, Geinke and Sonny Gray were not TOR pitchers last year.  Like I said, I think you are setting an almost impossible standard for TOR. 

I would consider a #1 or #2 starter a TORP, so all of those pitchers would be included.

MORP would be a 3/high 4- 2-3 WAR

BORP would be a low 4/5 starter.  1-2 WAR.

When you talk about WAR you also need to realize there is an error band with it.  A 2.5 WAR pitcher is very close to a 3 WAR pitcher.  I doesn't fit super well, but I have a hard time putting Clayton Kershaw in the same category as Collin McHugh #25 in fWAR this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 15, 2015, 10:03:31 pm
Whatever the case, I strongly doubt the Cubs have one in their system.  Cease has the arm, but no control.  Underwood touches very fast, but he doesn't have any individually excellent pitch.  A HR-oriented ill-controlled fastball, and some aspiring below-average off-speed stuff.  It's not like touching mid-upper 90's but mostly working low-90's is really all that rare, I don't think. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 10:15:07 pm
Chances are good they don't, because they are rare.  I would disagree that Underwood is just a fastball, most scouting reports mention he has a chance for 3 above average pitches.  McDaniel puts the ceiling on his fastball at 65, change 60, curve 55.  The command ceiling is a 50, but that seems to be improving as well. 

Only 17 starters average above 94.  Only 7 above 95 (Eovoldi, Richards, Cole, Harvey, Carlos Martinez, Archer, deGrom) of those 7 only Richards is below 3 fWAR.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 15, 2015, 10:20:15 pm
Pretty unlikely that Underwood is going to average above 94.  Cease could. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 15, 2015, 10:33:02 pm
McDaniel rates his fastball 60/65 (present/ceiling)

60 translates to an average velocity of 93
65 translates to an average velocity of 94
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: bitterman on September 15, 2015, 11:23:15 pm
Underwood can maintain 94
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on September 16, 2015, 01:21:12 pm
I dont think we have any TORP starters right now in the system. But, there is alot of good talent, one or two of which could develop into that elite starter. Lets hope some do develop into TORP
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 16, 2015, 01:53:15 pm
Cease seems to me to be the best we have.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 16, 2015, 02:02:53 pm
If you're not a top 20 prospect, you're probably not a TORP pitching prospect. Underwood is striking out fewer than 6 guys per 9, while Cease is walking 6 per 9. Sure, prospects do crazy things, but neither Underwood nor Cease deserve that designation right now.

Urias, Giolito, Berrios, Glasnow: these are TORP prospects, and both their abilities (combination of pitches and command) and results far exceed anything we've seen from Underwood or Cease to date.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 16, 2015, 02:30:07 pm
I would agree that Underwood/Cease are no where close to Urias, Giolito, Berrios, Glasnow. 

I'd just like to say a mentioned TORP potential not TORP prospects.  What I meant is that if everything broke right they could end up being that good of a pitcher.  Not that there is a higher percentage chance that it will happen like the better they guys you mentioned.  Maybe it is a distinction without meaning, but in my head it matters.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 16, 2015, 02:54:23 pm
If you're not a top 20 prospect, you're probably not a TORP pitching prospect. Underwood is striking out fewer than 6 guys per 9, while Cease is walking 6 per 9. Sure, prospects do crazy things.....

Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on September 16, 2015, 02:58:54 pm
I'd just like to say a mentioned TORP potential not TORP prospects.  What I meant is that if everything broke right they could end up being that good of a pitcher.  Not that there is a higher percentage chance that it will happen like the better they guys you mentioned.  Maybe it is a distinction without meaning, but in my head it matters.

Fair enough, though I think that, at some level, the "if everything breaks right" designation kind of applies to all pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP and all that. So I guess I kind of view it as applying an "everything breaks right" on top of an "everything breaks right," which feels like too much of a longshot to weigh heavily.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 16, 2015, 03:08:34 pm
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 

The big difference was that even when Wood was putting up those numbers, the scouts were saying that he had a "once in a decade" arm.

A 98 MPH fastball is wonderful, and I am glad Cease has it.  But there is still a big difference between Wood with a 98 MPH fastball and Cease with a 98 MPH fastball, and it seems that it is something that scouts can see, even beyond the lack of command that both have had in the minors.  Movement on the fastball is probably one difference, and more important is probably secondary pitches.  Wood had an incredible breaking pitch already in high school.  Cease has a breaking pitch, but almost never used it in high school, and seldom as a professional, although this might be deliberate, due to his surgery.  Cease is said to have a pretty good change up for someone that raw, but again, seldom uses it in a game.

I really like Cease, and am glad the Cubs have him, but until the scouts start raving about him, or he starts having success at the AA level or higher, I have a hard time thinking of him as having TOR level potential.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 16, 2015, 03:31:24 pm
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 

Well, Wood struck out 11.0 per 9 innings at the highest level of minors that season. 

Ks are the thing for prospects, if you want one thing. Yeah, there are exceptions here and there.  But, the starting point.  Mentioned this earlier in season about Underwood and his modest Ks and some argued he's working on other stuff--fastball command--so not to worry about modest Ks. Fine, but the modest Ks probably say something about his TORP projection going forward.  When his Ks go up, then TORP discussion stuff is more credible about him. That's what I am watching about him for next season. 

Nobody is going to say Tseng is TORP prospect but his increase in Ks late in season is really good sign.  That's what you want to see with any prospect.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 16, 2015, 05:13:01 pm
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy.

I loved Kerry Wood as a rookie.  As exciting a player as the Cubs had then, who simply reeked with potential, while still already performing very well.  My my dad to see him pitch a game in August when the Cubs won and Sosa also hit a HR.  Great day.

But Wood was NOT a TORP guy in 1998.  True enough that he was so much better than the rest of the dreck pitching for the Cubs that year (Traschel was next best, with an ERA+ below the league average) that we tended to think of him as an ace, but he wasn't. 

First he was a rookie, next he only threw 166 innings and was shut down for a month, and then there is the fact that his ERA+ of 129 didn't even put him in the top ten in the NL that season.  The Brave had a TEAM ERA better than Wood's.  Maddux, Leiter, Glavine, Brown, and Smoltz certainly were aces that year, with ERA+ figures ranging from 187 for Maddux down to 144 for Smoltz, but Wood was not durable enough, had not yet established a performance track record, and then simply did not perform enough better than the league average to qualify as an ace, unless you set the bar fairly low.   Being an exciting pitcher does not make someone an ace.

Ks are the thing for prospects, if you want one thing. Yeah, there are exceptions here and there.

Maddux never struck out more than 6.5 an inning in any minor league season when he pitched as many as 30 innings in the minors.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 16, 2015, 05:16:13 pm
I loved Woody's potential early in his career but it became clear very early on that he was far too fragile to be a workhorse #1.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 16, 2015, 05:21:43 pm
I loved Woody's potential early in his career but it became clear very early on that he was far too fragile to be a workhorse #1.

Yes.... like before the first season ended.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 16, 2015, 09:20:23 pm
Myrtle Beach wins the Carolina League title after blowing the lead in the 9th.

Soler: 0-3, BB, K

Caratini: 2-3, 2B, SF, RBI, K

Underwood: 6-5-1-1-0-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_09_16_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 16, 2015, 09:55:18 pm
Looks like Jorge could use another year in high A.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 16, 2015, 11:09:12 pm
Nice finale for Underwood.  Getting some K's for reb! 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 17, 2015, 01:57:55 am
Pelicans won on this laser:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=485059383&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 17, 2015, 07:37:48 am
A recap in Myrtle Beach:

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/sports/mlb/myrtle-beach-pelicans/article35528388.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 17, 2015, 07:11:09 pm
Sorry to have the minor-league season over. 

Might be a fun time to create some top-20 lists, before getting prejudiced by what we see BA ranking in their eventual top-10/30's, or their league rankings. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 17, 2015, 08:24:10 pm
1) Contreras
2) Torres
3) Almora
4) Edwards
5) McKinney
6) Dylan Cease
7) Duane Underwood
8) Tseng
9) Null
10) Candelaria
11)Pierce Johnson
12) Eloy Jimenez http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=jimene000elo
13) Vogelbach
14) Alcantara
15) Chesney Young, inf http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=young-000che
16) Szczur
17) Gioskar Amaya
18) Trevor Clifton, P http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=clifto000tre
19) Preston Morrison, P (10:1 K:W ratio) http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=morris000pre
20) Eugenio Palma,  P (Venezualan league) http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=palma-000eug
21) Jhonny Bethencourt, 2B/OF (Venezualan league)http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=bethen000jho
22) Junior Marte
23) Jose Paniagua

Iann Happ deliberately left off based on his 2015 performance (yes, it is dismissing a 1st round draft pick very quickly)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on September 18, 2015, 12:21:29 am
Sorry to have the minor-league season over. 

Might be a fun time to create some top-20 lists, before getting prejudiced by what we see BA ranking in their eventual top-10/30's, or their league rankings. 

1-5: Torres. Contreras, McKinney, Underwood, Johnson
6-10: Edwards, Cease, Candelario, Jimenez, Almora
11-15: Happ, Steele, Zagunis, Tseng, De La Cruz
16-20: Vogelbach, Williams, Hudson, Young, Stinnett
21-25: Blackburn, Hannemann, Torrez, Sands, Caratini
26-30: Black, Clifton, DeWeese, Wilson, Galindo
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on September 18, 2015, 01:45:46 am
Torres, Contreras, Happ, McKinney,Underwood, Cease, Johnson, Jimenez, Almora, Vogelbach.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on September 18, 2015, 08:44:26 am
Torres, Contreras, McKinney, E. Jimenez, Tseng

Edwards, Cease, Vogelbach, Underwood, Caratini

losing value: Black, DeWeese, Stinnett, Almora, Wilson
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on September 18, 2015, 08:36:30 pm
Would be shocked if Happ wasn't top 5
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 18, 2015, 08:48:27 pm
Certainly top 10
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 19, 2015, 05:39:38 am
Would be shocked if Happ wasn't top 5

Certainly top 10

I agree with both of you that he is likely to be there in most of the ratings by the highly regarded rating services.  I also would agree that the team's front office, so close to having made the draft scouting decisions and signing involved, is likely quite reluctant to quickly set aside an opinion which it emotionally, organizationally and financially committed to, but those are their commitments and not mine.

I don't see his performance since signing as supporting inclusion in the top 20, let alone the top 10.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 19, 2015, 10:57:04 am
When assessing prospects in low A, scouting assessments mean much more than performance numbers.  You never know what the hitter may be working on, what coaches are trying to change or fine tune, and how much is just due to being in an uncomfortable situation.

Terrible performance is a strong warning sign.  But his performance has not been terrible.  I would certainly rank him in the 6 - 10 area this year.  And where Cubs management ranks him is quite meaningless.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 19, 2015, 02:11:52 pm
And if Happ does well in 2016, I will be happy to be proven wrong.  At the moment, however, based on his performance, I would not include him in the top 20.  If you defer to his draft position or BA rankings or the like, you really are not actually assessing anyone.  You are simply deferring to someone else's assessment.

I agree with you entirely that a player's statistical performance may not be very meaningful when it can be wildly distorted as a result of organizational instruction causing a prospect to focus on one thin or another which might seriously skew performance.

But I never heard of the Cubs trying to do that with Happ, and nothing in the reports we saw about him indicated the Cubs would do anything like that.  As a result, with Happ, I look at his performance as the best indication of what he was able to do, and while it may not have been terrible, it also was nothing remotely close to impressive.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on September 19, 2015, 03:26:43 pm
I thought Happ did fine save low BABIP. High walks, high K hit for some power, stole bases. Feel good about him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on September 19, 2015, 04:41:01 pm
Yeah, I'm happy with happ for most part.  His year equates to 18 hrs per 600 ab's for a likely 2b with lots of Xbase hits.   Low BABIP after promotion hurt overall numbers a bit.  That should be abberation with style of hitter he is.  If he shows chance to stick at second in instructs, I think he is a top 5 guy in our system.  We've probably been spoiled a bit with bryant and schwarber last 2 years
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 19, 2015, 05:01:57 pm
You are simply deferring to someone else's assessment.

Of course I am deferring (or more accurately, including) someone else's assessment.  None of us see very many prospects actually play in games, and rating a prospect on stats alone would be idiotic.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on September 19, 2015, 05:12:44 pm
I'm rooting for all of our prospects, but at this time I am hard pressed to see where any of them will fit in for the Cubs at the major league level.  The possible exception is Contreras and pitching.

With the youth and talent on the MLB roster most of the current system will have a hard time displacing someone.  Tradebait, depth and coverage for injuries is what I see out of our system.

Name some players that you guys think will eventually start for the Cubs?  No doubt there will be some, but I believe it is difficult to accurately target those prospects.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 19, 2015, 05:25:20 pm
I thought Happ did fine save low BABIP. High walks, high K hit for some power, stole bases. Feel good about him.

145 AB in the Midwest League.  35 hits, 5 of which were HR, for 30 hits on balls in play.  After subtracting the 5 HR from his AB, since those were not balls in play, and then subtracting his 39 K's, since those were not balls in play, he had 101 AB when balls were put in play, giving him a BABIP of only slightly less than .300 (30 for 101).  In the Northwest League he had 26 hits on balls in play and 74 AB where the ball ended up in play, giving him a BABIP of something better than .333 (26 of 74).  I don't know what his problems were, but it was not a low BABIP that caused his weak performance.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 19, 2015, 05:45:13 pm
I would certainly agree that if Happ does not improve his production as he gains experience, he will never see the big leagues.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on September 19, 2015, 06:41:13 pm
Well color me wrong re: Happ BABIP. I took some NSBB poster's post as gospel. In any case, I'd be shocked if he wasn't top 5 in most lists.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on September 19, 2015, 06:57:32 pm
fangraphs has his babip there at .288.  not gonna recalculate jes's to see who is wrong there, but i tend to trust fangraphs.  I think an easy thing to miss when looking at babip, is comparing a prospects babip to what is expected in the majors rather than minors.  In the minors, good hitters are usually more .340 to .350(admittedly, i'm pulling numbers out of thin air there, either way it's higher than the .300 at the major league level).  If happ had matched his .347 he had at first stop, for example, he would have had a little less than a .300 average in the midwest league. 

The question is, which hitter does one think he is?  Of course, if you don't think he's a major league caliber hitter, then believe in the .288 figure.  I think he will be a major league caliber hitter so I believe in the first number.  He seems to have a good eye and solid power.  A little swing and miss seems to be his main negative, but hopefully it won't be too harmful.  I also trust the cubs current organization and scouting department.  That gives me a little more faith in the first number.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on September 19, 2015, 07:07:31 pm
Word
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 19, 2015, 07:35:40 pm
I would certainly agree that if Happ does not improve his production as he gains experience, he will never see the big leagues.

It is entirely possible that I am evaluating him unfairly (though I doubt he will particularly care.)  It is not at all possible that a flukishly low BABIP resulted in his modest BA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 19, 2015, 08:50:42 pm
Jes isn't including they 3 SF Happ had. His BABIP was .288. We'll also leave out that BABIP doesn't stabilize (or be less likely due to bad/good luck) until 820 balls in play.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on September 19, 2015, 09:21:46 pm
how is it not at all possible that a flukishly low babip resulted in a modest babip?  Flukes happen all the time in baseball.  The only way you can be sure of that is by saying that, with a doubt, the guy doesn't have the talent to hit that well.  There is no way possible you can know that.

Or, am I somehow misunderstanding you?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 19, 2015, 09:32:49 pm
Jes isn't including they 3 SF Happ had. His BABIP was .288. We'll also leave out that BABIP doesn't stabilize (or be less likely due to bad/good luck) until 820 balls in play.

And even when that adjustment is made, it is not enough below average to explain his disappointing results.

how is it not at all possible that a flukishly low babip resulted in a modest babip?  Flukes happen all the time in baseball.  The only way you can be sure of that is by saying that, with a doubt, the guy doesn't have the talent to hit that well.  There is no way possible you can know that.

Or, am I somehow misunderstanding you?

A BABIP roughly at average is not flukishly low.  His was pretty close to average.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on September 19, 2015, 10:39:53 pm
Happ had a decent month of August at South Bend (OPS over .800), then faded in September.  First season of professional ball.  I don't think there are any red flags yet. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on September 19, 2015, 10:58:53 pm
And even when that adjustment is made, it is not enough below average to explain his disappointing results.

A BABIP roughly at average is not flukishly low.  His was pretty close to average.


Minor league babip's are a bit higher than the .300 major league average. Look at batting line for any legit hitting prospect.  I'm sure you'll find some exceptions but most are going to be midish .300's or close on average.

Someone out there may know exact number, I'm just guessing.


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on September 20, 2015, 02:32:35 am

Name some players that you guys think will eventually start for the Cubs?  No doubt there will be some, but I believe it is difficult to accurately target those prospects.

I expect Contreras will spend 2016 in Iowa, share catching duties with Montero and possibly Schwarber in 2017, and be our primary catcher thereafter.

I think Almora, Torres, Jimenez and Candelario will become major league regulars in time. Whether they're trade bait or replace more expensive veterans when they're ready is unknown. McKinney, Zagunis and Young look like part-time players to me.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 20, 2015, 07:50:13 am
Whether McKinney or Zagunis become starters, it's really GREAT to have guys coming up who will provide excellent plate discipline and VERY tough ABs!

The organizational philosophy is paying off now and will make us even stronger down the road.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 20, 2015, 07:55:17 am
Amazing to me that on Sept 20 we have the 3rd best record in baseball and only 1 game back of the 2nd best! 

Whether or not he wins it, Joe M. deserves Manager of the Year.  Theo deserves Executive of the Year (for the tremendous body of work since he took over).


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 20, 2015, 10:41:47 am
MLB rosters change, through injuries or failure.  The trick is to have players that can come up and fill in well as these things happen.

That is the greatest value of a farm system like the Cardinals.  No one thought that Carpenter, Adams, Craig, Wong or many others could fill in adequately for Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainright, etc, and it didn't seem likely that they could force their way into the team, let alone the starting lineup.  But as things changed at the MLB level, there were prospects that could step up into the opportunity created.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 20, 2015, 10:49:20 am
I see very little disappointing about the year that Happ has had.  If he were the second overall pick, I would be concerned.  If he were the fourth overall pick, I would be disappointed.  But the ninth pick in a weak draft isn't likely to produce a Bryant or Schwarber.

His home run rate over 162 games would give him over 20.

His OPS was over .800

His strikeout rate was not much over 20 percent.

He stole 10 bases in 11 attempts.

He played a premium position and will be tried at another premium position this winter.

Overall, he had a reasonable first year.  He isn't going to be Bryant or Schwarber.  But that is why he lasted to the ninth pick in a weak draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 20, 2015, 02:37:09 pm
Draft was weak at the top. By #9, Happ would fit in nicely in that general range, 8-12, in most any draft. As I posted then, last two college OF bats drafted at #9 were Geoff jenkins and Mark Kotsay. So, we should have significant expectations for Happ.

I posted about Happ when saw him at the Cape a year ago. Liked his bat then and fun that he's in Cubs system now. He played mostly OF last season in college.

Expected him to do better in slow-A than he did. Advanced college hitter should do better than Happ performed at that level.

Don't really care that did better in short season. Can throw those stats in trash.

Played mostly corner OF at A ball, not a premium position. Fine for Cubs to give him a look at 2B. They should do that. But, the guy is a bat, probably ends up in a corner, and will have to hit a lot to have a good career. Yeah, top 10 in system of course but hoping for more in 2016 from him. Too many Ks in college and too many in A ball, so has something to prove.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 20, 2015, 02:48:45 pm
Draft was weak at the top. By #9, Happ would fit in nicely in that general range, 8-12, in most any draft. As I posted then, last two college OF bats drafted at #9 were Geoff jenkins and Mark Kotsay. So, we should have significant expectations for Happ.

I posted about Happ when saw him at the Cape a year ago. Liked his bat then and fun that he's in Cubs system now. He played mostly OF last season in college.

Expected him to do better in slow-A than he did. Advanced college hitter should do better than Happ performed at that level.

Don't really care that did better in short season. Can throw those stats in trash.

Played mostly corner OF at A ball, not a premium position. Fine for Cubs to give him a look at 2B. They should do that. But, the guy is a bat, probably ends up in a corner, and will have to hit a lot to have a good career. Yeah, top 10 in system of course but hoping for more in 2016 from him. Too many Ks in college and too many in A ball, so has something to prove.

It's a good thing you don't think much of his poor performance in the NW league... since he did much better there than in the higher level Midwest league.  I agree that he is a bat first prospect... and his bat just did not play well.  I share everyone's hope that he turns that around in 2016, and of course everyone can put together their rankings based on whatever metrics they like, but my own metric is heavy on performance and relative age, which is why despite his draft position, I don't include him in the top 20 at this time.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 20, 2015, 09:04:08 pm
Happ wouldn't have been a top 10 pick last year. In a decent draft he would likely be mid-teens.

I find little to get worked up about how he performed this year.

As far as the whole comparing him to Kotsay and Jenkins, I don't buy that at all. Jenkins draft (Kerry Wood year) was light years ahead of this draft. Kotsay out produced every player drafted ahead of him. Including #8 pick, Chad Green a college OF who never made the majors. Hitters at #9 have not faired well. College hitters drafted at #9 besides Kotsat and Jenkins (including Mark Smith a college OF from 1991) have failed to produce 1 player with a positive WAR. Expecting to get a 20 WAR player in a weak draft at #9 is going to lead to disappointment.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 20, 2015, 09:23:55 pm
Your going back to 1991 to find a college OFer who was a bust at #9? That's convincing.

As I said, last three OFers taken at #9 are Jenkins, Kotsay, and Happ.

You have no clue where Happ would likely be drafted in a "decent year. nor do I. I guessed 8-12 in a typical year and your guess is just as much guesswork as mine. How many players have you scouted on the road?

This draft was weak at very top, said the guys who project this stuff. Typical after that. Not  "expecting" any WAR in particular. Just a guy with an upside bat.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 20, 2015, 11:17:39 pm
Well you your going back to 1995 and 1996 to make your point, so 1991 isn't that much of a stretch.  I see you did ignore the college OF taken at #8 ahead of Kotsay in 1996 that never made the majors.

The upcoming draft has 7 elite guys.  Happ doesn't slot in right behind them or in that next tier. Callis said he'd take Nola, the seventh pick in 2014 first in this draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2015, 02:15:46 am
As I said, top of 2015,draft weak--rest typical. Brought in Jenkins and Kotsay because they are most recent.

College OFers taken in top dozen or so have best track records as a group. Not a revelation that some bust. Is that even worth mentioning?  Kind of obvious some will bust.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 09:42:57 am
When the top of the draft is weak it pulls everybody else up.  5-10 were not typical 5-10 picks.

So from the 6-12 picks all time college OF have been picked 23 times excluding recent picks like Happ and Springer.  I did count Michael Choice as a bust as he has been DFA'd.

6 have produced > 20 rWAR.  Your baseline for what Happ should be happens 26% of the time.  If you drop it down to 10 rWAR which gets you roughly Drew Stubbs production you still may not get above 50%.

My orginal point is that the Cubs will be very lucky if Happ makes the majors and contributes.  I think that still stands.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2015, 12:17:03 pm
When the top of the draft is weak it pulls everybody else up.  5-10 were not typical 5-10 picks.

So from the 6-12 picks all time college OF have been picked 23 times excluding recent picks like Happ and Springer.  I did count Michael Choice as a bust as he has been DFA'd.

6 have produced > 20 rWAR.  Your baseline for what Happ should be happens 26% of the time.  If you drop it down to 10 rWAR which gets you roughly Drew Stubbs production you still may not get above 50%.

My orginal point is that the Cubs will be very lucky if Happ makes the majors and contributes.  I think that still stands.

No, doesn't work that way. You can't invent extra guys who don't exist and then assume everybody else exists interchangeably. Each draft a bit different. If no elite 3 or 4 guys, doesn't follow that guys at 8-12 are weaker. Just means that top 3-4 are weaker. "Typical "5-7" guys might not exist that year and #9 is typical. Wrong to assume everything is stable except very top guys. It's fluid.

Belaboring the obvious that many are washouts. While very likely that Happ "makes the majors" we don't know lecel of production. Another truism.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 01:16:39 pm
Yes it does in this last draft compared to 2014.


The 2014 draft had 65 FV going early.  60 FV going 4-7.  Then a string of 55 FV guys.

The 2015 draft had a 60 FV guy, then 55 FV guys.  The top 55FV guys were going 2,3...  when they would have gone 8,9,10 in other drafts.  Everybody gets pulled up.  It still doesn't matter, because even in a good draft the #9 guy is a crap shoot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2015, 01:34:22 pm
A two-year sample size. Draft goes back 50 years. In any case, you're citing one guy, McDaniel, while there are 30 clubs with differing evaluations. It's just a pointless exercise.

And would not lump every club into one bag. Some clubs draft better than others.

As to Happ, really a question whether he will be a utility type guy such as Denorfia or an impact type regular. Very little chance he's a total washout. Not talking SS type who might not hit at all or HS guy who might wash out in A ball. Happ will hit some. Could turn out to be a bad pick but you'll see him in majors.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 02:23:11 pm
Some teams do draft better, but no team is perfect.  There are just too many variables, if a team can hit on 50% of their first round picks, they are doing well.  Especially the farther from the first pick you get.

Any draft that is weak at top will pull people forward.  Last year's draft was just especially weak.  Every team will grade people differently, but McDaniel/MLB.com give you the rough league average of evaluations.  Eventually it will balance, but that is more second-third round time when you won't notice the difference in talent. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on September 21, 2015, 02:27:03 pm
CBJ, Cardinals on line 2, they want to discuss their hit rate in the draft with you...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 03:24:35 pm
Cardinals 1st round pick with highest rWAR since 2000

Colby Rasmus, 15.8

Number of 1st round picks with >20 rWAR since 1980

4

Number of 1st round picks with less than 5 rWAR from 2000-2009

10

Drafting is hard, even for teams like the Cardinals.

Peak Red Sox drafting under McLeod didn't hit 50%

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2015, 03:33:56 pm
....... Eventually it will balance, but that is more second-third round time when you won't notice the difference in talent. 

Explain the rationale why difference in talent doesn't manifest at, to pick a number, pick #17 first round, rather than second-third round. Be specific. I'd like to know where and why and how you arrive at second-third round rather than much, much higher?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 04:36:18 pm

ODDS OF DRAFTING MAJOR LEAGUE CONTRIBUTOR, BY DRAFT PICK
Draft Pick   Chance of 10+ WAR Player   Chance of 3+ WAR Player
1-5           35%   55%
6-10           25%   43%
11-15   23%   41%
16-20   17%   32%
21-30   11%   23%
31-40   7%   15%
41-50   7%   15%

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
Somewhere around 25-50 is when the FV 55+ guys disappear and your dealing with FV 50 and below. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 21, 2015, 05:10:58 pm
As to Happ.... (v)ery little chance he's a total washout.

Why?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2015, 07:29:14 pm
Graphs have nothing to do with weak upper level draft compared to strong upper level draft.

Naturally, picks in first few rounds tend to outperform later rounds.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on September 21, 2015, 09:09:24 pm
Cardinals 1st round pick with highest rWAR since 2000

Colby Rasmus, 15.8

Number of 1st round picks with >20 rWAR since 1980

4

Number of 1st round picks with less than 5 rWAR from 2000-2009

10

Drafting is hard, even for teams like the Cardinals.

Peak Red Sox drafting under McLeod didn't hit 50%



Fantastic use of choosy stats there.

Lynn has 13 war so far... wacha has only about 6. Miller already has 6.9 so far with another 2 years of team control left as well, he's really blossomed this year.

I'd take any of those guys on my team as a 1st rounder.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 11:06:49 pm
Fantastic use of choosy stats there.

Lynn has 13 war so far... wacha has only about 6. Miller already has 6.9 so far with another 2 years of team control left as well, he's really blossomed this year.

I'd take any of those guys on my team as a 1st rounder.

Did I say they sucked?  I said if your hitting on 50% of your first round picks you are doing really well.  The Cardinals are below 50% in the draft since 2000 and can only get to 50% if you look at only the Lynn-Wacha drafts.  Drafting is hard and you are going to miss on far more than you hit.  It doesn't mean that you will miss on every pick.  Even the Cubs have 4 20 rWAR players drafted since 1980.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2015, 12:00:04 am
Graphs have nothing to do with weak upper level draft compared to strong upper level draft.

Naturally, picks in first few rounds tend to outperform later rounds.

That wasn't the question you asked.  You asked when I thought talent flattened out.  That is what those graphs show. 

If you want to look at a weak top end talent draft vs and average look at 1994, 1996 and 1995.

In 94 3 ccumulated 20 rWAR.  In 1996 only 3 did.  in 1995 6 accumulated over 20 rWAR.

A strong draft would be 2005.  With players still playing they have 7 above 20 rWAR already, 3 more above 15 rWAR. 

2010, 2011 would also be strong drafts.  I doubt seriously Happ sniffs the top 12 in any of those drafts.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2015, 12:23:37 am
No, was talking about where same guy would be drafted in weak-at-top draft compared to strong-at-top draft.

In any case, now your mixing 2015 draft with drafts that, in hindsight, were weak or strong.

You would agree that 2015 draft could turn out to be strong draft, especially at the top, right? Remains to be seen.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2015, 12:37:02 am
Very unlikely. The 2010 and 2011 drafts were considered strong drafts at the time.  2011 I would have a hard time seeing him go before 17 and I could see an argument that he wouldn't go before 31. 2010 I would hope the Cubs would have taken him over Simpson, but if not it might have been closer to Zach Cox at 25.

There will be good players to come out of this draft and hopefully Happ will be one of them. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2015, 02:23:14 am
Very unlikely. The 2010 and 2011 drafts were considered strong drafts at the time.  2011 I would have a hard time seeing him go before 17 and I could see an argument that he wouldn't go before 31. 2010 I would hope the Cubs would have taken him over Simpson, but if not it might have been closer to Zach Cox at 25.

There will be good players to come out of this draft and hopefully Happ will be one of them. 

Think you are exaggerating.

You mentioned 2011 draft. Very good draft at the top 8 or 9.  Guys from Baez down--clubs were all over the place in their evaluations.

Baez was a favorite of Tim Wilken.  Theo has said that the Red Sox--picking #19--weren't high on Baez and Theo has given Wilken credit for Baez, given that Red Sox brass were not that interested.  (Maybe it's even why Wilken was retained, at least in part).  Lots of clubs didn't like Baez' makeup and his HS team was a baseball factory that traveled around Florida. Stock rose late as draft approached but Wilken was in on him early. In short, clubs were all over the place on Baez. No doubt in my mind that if Red Sox were picking #9 that year, they would have ranked the 2015 Happ ahead of Baez.

#10 was Corey Spangenberg, a JUCO guy.  Big surprise that he was taken this high.  Pegged at bottom third of the round, pre-draft. Underslot guy. No way most clubs would rank Spangenberg ahead of 2015 Happ.

#11 was George Springer.  I saw Springer play at the Cape in 2009 (don't think he was there in 2010).  Very, very raw. Scouts loved his upside. Weird setup and mechanics.  Had a disappointing year at UConn in 2011, a bad start to season, and came on very strong late. This is always confusing to evaluators.  Moved up boards because got hot late.  Upside guy.  Think some clubs would have preferred steadier 2015 Happ over Springer.  Most would take Springer because of upside, granted, but depends on who picks at #11.  If you stirred the clubs order in a different way, some would have taken Happ over Springer because of the Springer risk.  A minority, but some.

Springer and Mikie Mahtook were the only college OFers in first round.  So, lot of apples and oranges to compare here, if we insert 2015 Happ.

2010 had three top guys and then a huge dropoff.  Chris Colon at #4 was a college SS projected by many as a 2B in big leagues. See BA comments at time. That should tell you something right there, as pure 2B rarely go top 10. As an OFer, Colon never would have gone this high. Two of the top 10 draftees didn't even sign. Very weak draft in college OFers. Michael Choice at #10 did not have as distinguished a college career as Happ. An upside guy.  He failed, as it turned out.

You have a bit of a problem talking in absolutes when an issue like this is way more convoluted than you seem to grasp. Some clubs really like steady college position player performers who clearly project as future major leaguers.  Guys like Springer and Choice could have been a big flop...Springer doing fine now but he was a risk to some clubs.  Baez ditto--definitely not a Theo type guy at draft time.  Hey, Baez still might turn out to be a flop but, in any case, not a Theo draft type guy because of makeup concerns at the time.  We know that Happ is a Theo type guy, by definition.

It's complicated and you kind of like to put things in neat boxes, no?  Embrace the ambiguity.  :D 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2015, 09:42:00 am
Think you are exaggerating.

Baez was a favorite of Tim Wilken.  Theo has said that the Red Sox--picking #19--weren't high on Baez and Theo has given Wilken credit for Baez, given that Red Sox brass were not that interested.  (Maybe it's even why Wilken was retained, at least in part).  Lots of clubs didn't like Baez' makeup and his HS team was a baseball factory that traveled around Florida. Stock rose late as draft approached but Wilken was in on him early. In short, clubs were all over the place on Baez. No doubt in my mind that if Red Sox were picking #9 that year, they would have ranked the 2015 Happ ahead of Baez.

#10 was Corey Spangenberg, a JUCO guy.  Big surprise that he was taken this high.  Pegged at bottom third of the round, pre-draft. Underslot guy. No way most clubs would rank Spangenberg ahead of 2015 Happ.

#11 was George Springer.  I saw Springer play at the Cape in 2009 (don't think he was there in 2010).  Very, very raw. Scouts loved his upside. Weird setup and mechanics.  Had a disappointing year at UConn in 2011, a bad start to season, and came on very strong late. This is always confusing to evaluators.  Moved up boards because got hot late.  Upside guy.  Think some clubs would have preferred steadier 2015 Happ over Springer.  Most would take Springer because of upside, granted, but depends on who picks at #11.  If you stirred the clubs order in a different way, some would have taken Happ over Springer because of the Springer risk.  A minority, but some.

Springer and Mikie Mahtook were the only college OFers in first round.  So, lot of apples and oranges to compare here, if we insert 2015 Happ.

2010 had three top guys and then a huge dropoff.  Chris Colon at #4 was a college SS projected by many as a 2B in big leagues. See BA comments at time. That should tell you something right there, as pure 2B rarely go top 10. As an OFer, Colon never would have gone this high. Two of the top 10 draftees didn't even sign. Very weak draft in college OFers. Michael Choice at #10 did not have as distinguished a college career as Happ. An upside guy.  He failed, as it turned out.

You have a bit of a problem talking in absolutes when an issue like this is way more convoluted than you seem to grasp. Some clubs really like steady college position player performers who clearly project as future major leaguers.  Guys like Springer and Choice could have been a big flop...Springer doing fine now but he was a risk to some clubs.  Baez ditto--definitely not a Theo type guy at draft time.  Hey, Baez still might turn out to be a flop but, in any case, not a Theo draft type guy because of makeup concerns at the time.  We know that Happ is a Theo type guy, by definition.

It's complicated and you kind of like to put things in neat boxes, no?  Embrace the ambiguity.  :D 

Tim Wilkin loved Baez,  Tim Wilkin was picking at #9.  No way he takes Happ over Baez.

Springer has more speed, power and defense compared to Happ.  The only thing Happ does better is strike out at a slightly better rate, but still high.  I can't see many teams taking Happ over Springer.

McLeod I'll give you a maybe at #9.  McLeod passed over a more talented college OF in Springer to take Spandenberg.  If you go back they were looking for somebody that could play up the middle.  Happ, maybe, can play second.  So if they really believe that Happ could play at second I could see them taking Happ over Spandenberg, assuming they could sign him.  If the view Happ as a corner OF, he likely couldn't play CF for the Padres, then I don't think they would take Happ over him. 

Colon has more postional flexibility than Happ.  Choice was a CF.  Positional flexibility matters.  Most teams view Happ as a corner OF without elite power.  That is going to hurt his value to other teams.  The Cubs have developed a philosophy that they can teach defense, so guys like Schwarber and Happ have more value to them.  I like Happ, but in most drafts he isn't a top 10 pick.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2015, 01:29:23 pm
I already said Wilken loved Baez. Theo and Red Sox didn't. Point is that, even in draft you cited, Happ (of 2015) would be rated higher (by Theo) than the guy going #9 and, therefore, you can't just peg somebody at this slot or that slot. If you claim that, you're blowing smoke.

Colon and Choice--in what you claim was a strong draft--were flawed guys at the time, Colon not really a SS nor an upside bat and Choice had plenty of swing-and-miss (and iffy as a CFer--see BA at the time). Not at all clear either was more attractive prospect than Happ/2015. For some probably yes, for others probably no.

Again, point is that little or no basis to pigeonhole Happ in late teens or whatever slot you supposedly are sure he would go in those drafts. You don't know that and full of holes and rank conjecture in your arguments. I don't know either. Point is that many, many variables in play in stuff like this. So, I'm suggesting that you might want to be a bit more circumspect in this. It's ambiguous and that's okay. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2015, 03:10:03 pm
It was McLeod, not Theo.

On Cory Spangenberg and Javier Baez: “When I was in San Diego, Javier Baez went right in front of us. He went ninth and we took Cory Spangenberg tenth. The Cubs beat a lot of teams on Javy. They certainly beat the Padres. I have to admit we weren’t set up to take him with our pick. Thankfully, the Cubs were smart and I don’t have to wear that one too bad.

“We had some questions on [Baez] aggressiveness. Everyone saw the bat speed and the power. He was a little flashy and had the big swing. What we probably underestimated a little bit was how much Javy loves to play the game, and how much he loves to compete. In the end, we simply missed on him. We wouldn’t have taken Javy had he fallen to our pick. Thankfully the Cubs did.”

FWIW BA had Colon and Choice rated much higher than Happ.  I'm not a huge fan of BA's ratings. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2015, 03:40:49 pm
Yeah, McLeod. Thanks for correction but same point. BA also noted industry concerns about Baez make-up pre-draft. No doubt that McLeod would prefer Happ/2015 over Baez/#9 at the time. Just shows that can't possibly project where a guy, and Happ in particular, would go in 2010 or 2011 or any draft other than 2015.

Colon went #4. Don't know where Happ would have went relative to Colon (or Choice), nor do you. Neither of those guys was rated comparative to Happ at that time, obviously.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2015, 03:57:53 pm
No team's board is always going to line up well with BA.  Sure there is a possibility that Happ could go top 10 in any draft.  I don't think it is that great that it would happen. 

Happ is a nice player.  He has the possibility of positional flexibility in being able to play 2B/3B/all three OF positions.  He has a good eye and some power.  As people have mentioned he also strikes out.  I'm not a huge believer in it is a big deal, but that and the lack of a true defensive position will hurt him.  If he is just a corner OF, the bat will have to play up a lot.  I personally think if Bennintendi is at #9 with Happ, Bennintendi is the choice.  I think the Cubs are happy to have him, but he wasn't the top player they wanted either.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2015, 08:30:35 pm
Agree that Benintendi probably is college bat they wanted. True CF. We know that Cubs brass big on positional value and Benintendi also projected as a lower K guy than Happ.

Turns out, perhaps, that Cubs didn't suck enough in 2014.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 22, 2015, 09:02:07 pm
Benintendi had a great summer.  More power, more hits, and about 1/3 the K's.  Fantastic rookie summer for him.  Much rather have him.  O well

I'm hopeful that Happ will make it and be useful.  I'm still working on my list, but don't think he'll make my top-10. Definitely in my top 13. 

The reason I don't really consider him for my top-8 is the high K's.  To K so much in both short-season and low-A, that doesn't bode well.  Pitching is a lot better in the majors, so if short-season breaking stuff is already K'ing him a lot, the big-league chances aren't that good.  Especially for a guy who doesn't really seem to project Bryant/Schwarber/Baez power.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 23, 2015, 07:58:34 pm
Arguello is doing reports on instructs, here is the third one that talks about some recent IFA guys.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/09/instructs-recap-day-3-a-look-at-the-high-profile-ifa-signings-wilson-higgins-garcia-monasterio-and-more-photos/#image/1

He also has a YouTube video of Happ fielding at 2nd, it isn't anything great.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 24, 2015, 08:17:55 am
Bluejay, thanks for the link.  Interesting.  Am I wrong, or is the list of internationals pretty much exactly what was originally reported July 1?  I do wonder whether they'll add anybody else significant, Cubans included. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 24, 2015, 08:22:09 am
My Prospect Lilst:
1-5:  Torres Contreras  Almora   McKinney   Jiminez
6-13:  Underwood   Edwards   Tseng   Johnson  Cease  DeLaCruz  Happ   Zagunis
14-22  Steele   Markey   Caratini   Hudson   Stinnett   DeWees   Williams   Sands   Skulina
23-27  Garner  Galindo   Clifton   McNeil   Wilson
28-33  Morrison   Blackburn   Candelario   Conway   Villanueva   Rivero
34-40  Beeler   Torrez   Baez   Null   Vogelbach   Berg   Black
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 24, 2015, 08:25:25 am
Arizona League prospects (BA)
Quote
2. Dylan Cease, rhp, Cubs
..Cease made a relatively quick recovery from his July 2014 Tommy John surgery, flashing high-90s velocity in extended spring training games just 10 months after surgery.

While Cease’s command isn’t completely back, he clearly possessed some of the best stuff in the AZL. His fastball consistently sat 95-96 mph and touched 99. His secondary pitches are still inconsistent, with his low-80s curveball with three-quarters break an average pitch that plays up because of the fastball velocity. He gets enough spin on his breaking ball to project a better grade for the pitch. He doesn’t yet use his fringy changeup much, but the arm speed is there and the low-80s offering also plays up because of his fastball.

Some evaluators are concerned with Cease’s delivery, and whether the use of his lower half will allow him to stay in the rotation without making adjustments.

“He has a great arm and a great future. He’s a great worker and a student of the game,” Cubs pitching coach Ron Villone said. “The sky’s the limit next year.”
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 24, 2015, 08:27:34 am
Quote
Mike (Chicago): Did any other Cubs come close to making the list?
Bill Mitchell: Scouts liked what they saw from 4th round CF D.J. Wilson, with a few Adam Eaton comps thrown his way. Wladimir Galindo played third base early in the season for the AZL Cubs and impressed with his bat before getting hurt, but his defense at the hot corner is rough and he'll likely have to move to 1B or LF. 3rd round pick Bryan Hudson is a very tall (6-8), projectable LHP who impressed in his few brief outings.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 24, 2015, 10:28:51 am
Bluejay, thanks for the link.  Interesting.  Am I wrong, or is the list of internationals pretty much exactly what was originally reported July 1?  I do wonder whether they'll add anybody else significant, Cubans included. 

Craig - this is the list that I got from one of the sites early in July.  I don't see a lot of difference between it and his current information.  It is very likely that there will still be some more signings.  Also, Arguello only wrote up the new signings that are currently in instructional camp.  There may be others that are not there yet, or are not coming at all this year.

Aramis Ademan, SS, Dominican Republic. A highly skilled athletic player with a smallish frame that doesn't project physically, meaning his ultimate ceiling will be limited.  He does have a high floor, however, because his defense is so advanced (great hands, range, arm) he is as sure a bet as there is to stick at SS.

Opinions very on Ademan based on how open minded scouts are about what a 16-year-old kid getting a premium bonus should look like. Ademan looks like he'll make a lot of contact and play shortstop, but with little to no power or physical projection and without elite footspeed, the upside is very limited. This type of player is getting more attention in recent years, as the same thing is happening in the draft and in the majors. If Ademan hits his upside, he's a potential low-end everyday shortstop, and he's a surer bet to do that than most in this class, but there's very little margin for error.  (SIGNED) $2 million.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 35 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60
Age: 16 (Sept. 13, 1998) – 5-foot-10, 150 pounds – Bats: L Throws R
Aramis Ademan has “the best hands out there right now, no question” according to MLB.com. Ademan has “opened eyes with his athletic ability and skills on defense.” And scouts expect him to grow into his frame. Ademan has shown the ability to hit in games among intense competition. Considered a glove-first player right now that “has to get stronger and become more physical as he matures.”
Ademan is a slick fielder with quick hands and he should stick at shortstop. Ademan has an advanced feel for contact. – Estimated Signing Bonus: $2 million

Yonathan Peralza, SS, Venezuela.  Has a pretty RH swing and strong, quick hands -- but he is just 5'8".  I love his hit tool despite the size, has some speed, and a chance to stick at SS.  If he was 3-4 inches taller he'd probably be a top 10 guy.  He just looks like he's going to hit. (SIGNED) $2 million.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50
Age: 16 (Nov. 10, 1998) – 5-foot-8, 175 pounds – Bats: S Throws R
MLB.com said to “picture Martin Prado as a teenager, that’s how some scouts view Perlaza.”

Yonathan Perlaza is considered one of the better hitters of this year’s class, while there is a chance he could stay at shortstop, there is “a belief he will end up at second base.” Perlaza has “been praised for his swing and strong wrists, leading some scouts to believe that he could hit some home runs and drive the ball into the gaps” as he matures. Fundamentally sound “in all areas of his game” but his “bat, now and in the future, that makes him an appealing prospect.”
Perlaza has a smooth swing and produces hard contact. – Estimated Signing Bonus: $1.2 million

Christopher Martinez, 3B, Dominican Republic.  Some raw power but no loud tools, more of an average across the board type.  Good approach, size, athleticism, quick hands, clean swing.  Some projection left in his frame.  Cubs likely value him for his advanced plate discipline and all fields approach, giving him a rather high floor as an all-around player. (SIGNED) $1 million.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50
Age: 15 (June 28, 1999) – 5-foot-11, 180 pounds – Bats: R Throws R
Christopher Martinez is “considered one of the top infielders in this year’s class.” Martinez has an average arm that should improve as he matures. Martinez has “good defensive instincts and quick hands.” And there is potential for more offense. Martinez has shown the ability to spray the ball to all fields, with patience and plate discipline in games.
Martinez has average raw power with above average bat speed. – Estimated Signing Bonus: $1.5 million

Anderson Amarista, RHP, Venezuela. Good pitchability type with average stuff across the board.  Good arm action.  Depends on how you project him physically and whether you can add velo to his fastball.  If not...you guessed it.  The pitchability and baseball IQ give him a pretty high floor.  Sensing a pattern here?

Anderson Amarista is 6-foot, 178 pounds and the right-hander sits 85-87 mph with his fastball and has touched 91 mph while flashing a solid average curveball. – Estimated Signing Bonus: $1 million

Wen Hua Sung, RHP, Taiwan.  He has a mature frame, feel for pitching, and average stuff, so the temptation is to compare him to countryman and Cubs prospect Jen-Ho Tseng, though Tseng through harder and had a better breaking ball at the same age, though Sung throws a slider and Tseng throws a curve.

Sung played in both the Little League World Series, hitting a home run in Championship game defeat and in the 2013 IBAF Under-18 World Cup, where he faced a U.S. team that included first rounders LHP Brady Aiken (Indians), RHP Jack Flaherty (Cardinals), LHP Justus Sheffield (Indians), RHP Luis Ortiz (Rangers), SS Cole Tucker (Pirates) and likely 2017 first round pick C J.J. Schwarz (University of Florida). Sung has average stuff, usually sitting around 90, and a maxed-out frame, but some feel for pitching. Scouts tend to agree that he isn't quite as good at the same stage as Cubs RHP Jen-Ho Tseng, another product of Korea whom they signed in their last international spending spree in 2013 for $1.625 million. Rumors are Sung will get as much as $1.5 million and the Cubs are the favorite, but the Rangers were also in the mix late in the process.

Jonathan Sierra, RF, Dominican Republic.  Another big RF with raw power,  Sierra may not be as good a hitter as Cubs phenoms Jorge Soler and Eloy Jimenez, though he has the defensive tools to stick in RF. (SIGNED) $2.5 million.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45
Age: 16 (Oct. 17, 1998) – 6-foot-3, 205 pounds – Bats: L Throws L
MLB.com reported that “one famous player comes to mind when scouts talk about Estiwal: Darryl Strawberry.”
Yonathan Sierra Estiwal is a “tall and lanky left-handed hitter and thrower with some raw power.” Estiwal is projected as a right fielder and that is where the comp to Strawberry comes in. Estiwal has a “graceful swing, and scouts like his ability to barrel up balls.” Can hit to all fields, shown power in games and the ability to hit for power to opposite field,” described as a “good baseball player who knows the game.”

Miguel Amaya, C, Panama:   A defensive oriented catcher with a strong arm, Amaya could develop an average hit tool and power. (SIGNED) $1.5 million.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 40 | Run: 20 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60
Age: 16 (March 9, 1999) – 6-foot, 160 pounds – Bats: L Throws R
Scouts have seen that Miguel Amaya can hit but he has really impressed them with his defense. Amaya “looks the part” of a catcher, calls a good game and “takes control behind the plate.” Amaya has the potential to have a “plus-arm and could be a plus defender.” The opinions vary slightly on his defense, but according to MLB.com, “it’s impossible to ignore the total package and overall potential he presents.”
Amaya has a smooth swing and hits to all fields – Estimated Signing Bonus: $1.2 million

Luis Diaz, 2B, Dominican:  Speed player who'd instantly be among the fastest players in the Cubs system.  Chance to be a good defender but no power and average hit tool at best.

Luis Diaz is 5-foot-9, 155 pounds and is a plus runner that has a chance to stay at shortstop. Diaz has a good feel for hitting but has below average power from the right side. – Estimated Signing Bonus: $350,000

Gwang Min Kwon, 1B, South Korea.  Big bodied 1B with above average raw power. SIGNED 1.2 million

Yunior Perez, RHP, Dominican.  Projectable frame at 6'3', 175 lbs and already hits 94 with solid command.  Secondaries lag behind.  More upside than either Amarista or Sung, but less polished. (SIGNED) $600 thousand.

Yunior Perez is 6-foot-3, 175 pounds and features a 90-93 mph fastball with a below average curveball. – Estimated Signing Bonus – $650,000

Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Dominican: Best LHP in a weak class.  Average across the board (FB, CB, CH) tops out at 92 with a projectable frame.  Another higher risk but higher upside type arm.

Vinicio Martinez, RF, Dominican.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on September 24, 2015, 11:35:37 am
Christopher Martinez signed with the Rockies for $500K. I don't know what happened with his earlier commitment to the Cubs for > $1M.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2015, 11:38:53 am
Failed physical on Martinez.

Amarista signed with the Rockies
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on September 24, 2015, 11:53:09 am
Lots of "average" and "limited" in that writeup...sounds like a lot of 'meh' to me...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2015, 11:59:12 am
One thing to keep in mind the Cubs locked up a lot of these kids when they where 15, so BA/McDaniel/other scouts may not have gotten many recent looks at them.  The could exceed expectations or be worse. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 24, 2015, 03:22:54 pm
I assume that for 16 year olds, the difference between "now" ratings and "projected" ratings would have to be quite substantial.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 26, 2015, 05:34:33 pm
Watching the Cubs celebrate playoffs in 2015 caused me to look up our Baseball America Top Prospects going into 2011:
1. Brett Jackson
2. Chris Archer
3. Trey McNutt
4. Hak-Ju Lee
5. Josh Vitters
6. Jay Jackson
7. Chris Carpenter
8. Brandon Guyer
9. D.J. LeMahieu
10. Hayden Simpson
Sort of illustrates the difference between the old regime and the new one!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 26, 2015, 06:05:38 pm
True.  Even so, we could probably find a place for LeMehieu and Archer.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 26, 2015, 06:12:51 pm
Unfortunately, Hendry traded Archer for Garza.  Theo traded D.J., but he's not the kind of difference maker Archer would be.

Too bad Theo didn't START with the Cubs (instead of Boston). 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 26, 2015, 06:16:02 pm
If Theo worked for the Tribune, I don't think he would have done that much better.  Especially under Zell.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on September 26, 2015, 09:54:13 pm
Saw sullivan say this in fangraphs chat friday, and figured it sorta went with all the draft talk.  A pretty good reminder of how hard it is to find good players, even when you are ranking guys in aa or aaa, much less the draft.

Top-10 hitting prospects recently have averaged about 16 WAR during the control years. That’s six or seven years

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on September 27, 2015, 07:01:44 pm
I believe Theo would have produced similar results in his short time with the Trib as owners, too, even with that nut case Zell.

Money helps, but winning is SO much more about strategy AND execution than about money...and Theo excels in strategy AND execution overall.

Of course, I'm very hopeful we can make BIG many available to him as soon as possible.  He will make wise investments with that, too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 27, 2015, 07:05:09 pm
Zell wanted big ticket items to juice attendance and get a quick winner. It moved money away from the draft and IFA. When Theo did that with the Red Sox the results were mixed.   See Carl Crawford.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 27, 2015, 07:20:26 pm
1.) Torres
2.) Underwood
3.) McKinney
4.) Contreras
5.) Happ
6.) Almora
7.) Edwards
8.) Candalario
9.) Jimenez- he could be top 3 by the end of next year
10.) Tseng
11.) Cease
12.) Johnson
13.) Sands
14.) Steele
15.) DeWees
16.) Hudson
17.) Stinnet
18.) Delacruz
19.) Clifton
20.) Markey

After about 13 through 30+ I think you could put them in any order.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on September 28, 2015, 01:00:22 pm
Quote from: Chicago Cubs Online piece on catchers in the system
One of the players that may change some of the plans for Schwarber could be Willson Contreras. The 23-year old turned the minor league world on its ear by leading the Southern League in hitting this season and finishing in the top three of every major offensive category except home runs and stolen bases. Contreras batted .333/.413/.478/.891 with 34 doubles, four triples, eight home runs, 75 RBIs, and four stolen bases. What has remained the same is that Contreras is a crackerjack defender, fielding .987 and erasing 28% of all base runners this past season. Contreras also has an intense personality that will not let his teammates slack off for a moment. Currently, the Cubs have assigned Contreras to the Arizona Fall League. How he performs there and in winter ball, where Contreras had played the last two years, could affect the Cubs decision process at the position. Contreras' defense and offense are what you like to see out of a back-up catcher, and he also has experience at the four corners (third and first base, left and right field) along with some distant exposure to second base. With that versatility, Contreras could slide behind Montero toward the end of next season, leaving Schwarber to concentrate on playing the outfield.
As we keep hearing, Joe Maddon loves versality.


The Cubs roster lists Mike Borzello as the catching coach.  I've heard nothing on the kind of job Borzello does but maybe David Ross who will be 39 in March could slide into that spot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on September 28, 2015, 01:13:43 pm
As we keep hearing, Joe Maddon loves versality.

The Cubs roster lists Mike Borzello as the catching coach.  I've heard nothing on the kind of job Borzello does but maybe David Ross who will be 39 in March could slide into that spot.

From everything I've read, Borzello is highly respected for the job he's done for the Cubs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 28, 2015, 01:28:11 pm
Borzello is supposed to be either the best/one of the best catching coaches around.  I believe he is related somehow to Joe Torre.

Henry Blanco is also somewhere on Maddon's staff.

Just going to say Contreras/Schwarber would be a nice catching platoon.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 28, 2015, 03:22:04 pm
Not unless they trade Montero, and that isn't particularly likely.  first, given his salary, he isn't likely to bring much if anything unless they pay much of his salary, and second, we have little idea how good a "framer" contreras is, something that seems important to Hoyer.  If Contreras is part of a platoon, it will more likely be with Montero at least in the upcoming season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 28, 2015, 07:35:23 pm
Just going to say Contreras/Schwarber would be a nice catching platoon.

I wonder where I have heard that before....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on September 28, 2015, 07:37:08 pm
Nonetheless, it might be a good idea
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 28, 2015, 07:39:38 pm
Nonetheless, it might be a good idea

Best line in a while.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on September 28, 2015, 07:43:07 pm
Damning with faint praise.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 29, 2015, 05:18:25 pm
Happ and Jimenez rank #2 and #3 in Northwest League top prospects, per BA.

2. Ian Happ, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Cincinnati, 2015 (1). Video

The Cubs had such success drafting a polished college bat in the first round in 2014 (Kyle Schwarber) that they did it again in 2015. So far, so good, though Happ probably will not find himself at Wrigley Field next season.

Happ’s best position—like Schwarber—is the batter’s box. The Cubs played him in center field exclusively at Eugene, and he moved around the outfield following a promotion to low Class A South Bend on July 25. He will head back to his primary college position of second base for instructional league.

He has a fringe-average arm and needs significant footwork improvement to stick in the dirt. His bat will play, though. Happ has excellent bat speed from both sides of the plate and projects as a plus hitter with average power. He has above-average speed underway and stole 10 bases without being caught.

“When guys can come to the plate and make 95-96 (mph) look slow, you know he’s going to be a hitter,” one NWL manager said.

3. Eloy Jimenez, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 205. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013. Video

The Cubs invested $2.8 million to sign Jimenez in 2013. After a rough go in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2014, he began showing some of the promise the Cubs saw two years ago.

Jimenez is a strong, physical righthanded batter with plus raw power. He can hit the ball out to all fields and shows tremendous opposite-field pop. He has a long swing, but his level bat path keeps the barrel in the zone a long time. He has holes in his swing, but he maintains a good approach and makes a ton of contact. He has average to tick above-average speed underway with a tick above-average arm as well. With experience, he should be at least an average defender in right field.

“Big bonus. Big tools,” one scout said. “He’s got a long ways to go, but he’s aggressive and has some power. He hasn’t quite taken another step (forward), but that’s a solid year in an aggressive assignment.”
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 29, 2015, 05:22:27 pm
Five more Cubs in second ten of Northwest League top prospects, per BA.

11. Donnie Dewees, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 180. Drafted: North Florida, 2015 (2).

Also a soccer and football player in high school, Dewees is athletic but was unheralded in baseball before his arrival at North Florida. He led NCAA Division I in hits, runs, slugging and total bases in the spring, then grinded his way through a solid pro debut as a Cubs second-rounder.

Dewees has a compact lefthanded swing, good contact skills and a feel for the barrel, with excellent bat control. While he can drive the ball the other way, he projects to have below-average power.

Dewees is a plus runner whose times to first base border on double-plus, and one scout timed him at 3.94 seconds on a bunt. His speed helps him go get the ball in center field as well. He’s an average defender whose well below-average arm strength—combined with a lack of power—would present a challenge if moved out of center field.

12. Justin Steele, lhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 195. Drafted: HS—Lucedale, Miss., 2014 (5).

One of the prep pitchers the Cubs popped in the 2014 draft, Steele signed for $1 million as a fifth-round pick to pass on Southern Mississippi. Like Eugene teammate Carson Sands, Steele is a lefthander with a projectable frame and plus velocity.

Steele’s fastball topped out at 95 mph this season. The lefthander attacks the strike zone, generating nearly a strikeout per inning and plenty of groundballs. Steele has competitive fire and athleticism and works downhill with the fastball and also a curveball that projects as a future plus weapon. He commands his fastball well, keeping it low in the zone and has yet to allow a home run as a pro.

“It’s tough to know how hard a guy is throwing,” one NWL manager said, “but I know hitters are having a hard time against him.”

13. Carson Sands, lhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Drafted: HS—Tallahassee, Fla., 2014 (4). Video

Sands signed for $1.1 million as part of the Cubs’ prep pitching haul in the 2014 draft, a haul that also included Eugene teammate Justin Steele.

Like Hillsboro’s Cody Reed, Sands is another of the NWL’s big-bodied lefthanders with above-average velocity. Sands gets good downhill plane on a fastball that reached 95 mph this season, and he showed solid fastball command and good armside action.

Sands struggles to control his curveball, which flashed plus but had inconsistent shape. His changeup flashes average. If he can refine his control and harness his curveball, Sands has the makings of a mid-rotation starter and has plenty of room to fill out his body.

16. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012.

De la Cruz signed with the Cubs for just $85,000 as a 17-year-old in October 2012. He made giant strides in 2015 in extended spring training, earning a jump to the NWL following two years in the Dominican Summer League.

De la Cruz didn’t just hold his own at Eugene. He ranked second in the NWL with 73 strikeouts and tied for first with a 1.00 WHIP. The projectable de la Cruz appears to stand at least one inch taller than his listed 6-foot-4 height, giving him great natural plane. De la Cruz has room to grow, though he’s already fairly strong, and as he does, his velocity should eclipse its current 92-93 mph range, which is where he sits.

De la Cruz’s secondary offerings are still in development. Of those, his curveball shows the most promise and flashed plus in the second half of the season. He has feel for his changeup, but it has been inconsistent. His delivery is clean and repeatable, thanks to athleticism he possesses.

19. Pedro Araujo, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 214. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011.

The Cubs signed Araujo, a Dominican righthander, for $100,000 in 2011, but he still has yet to reach full-season ball in five pro seasons—but he has potential. He has a physical, 6-foot-3 frame, a short stride and a low-90s fastball that he throws to set up a solid curveball and a changeup.

Araujo throws a high percentage of strikes and had a nearly 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the NWL. Thanks to a heavy fastball that is difficult to elevate, he can both miss bats and keep the ball in the park. However, Araujo been used strictly as a reliever since debuting in the U.S. in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2014 following three years in the Dominican Summer League.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on September 29, 2015, 05:29:43 pm
From BA chat about Northwest League top prospects.

Roy (Indiana): Can Ian Happ play second? Does this improve his chances of reaching the major leagues sooner?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: That is unclear. The Cubs are trying him there in instructs and it certainly helps his profile if he can stick in the dirt, as they say. His bat is the carrying tool, much like Kyle Schwarber. He doesn’t have Schwarber’s power, but the hit tool might be better, and he’s athletic enough to play center field.

Justin (MEmphis): I was surprised to see Happ listed above Eloy Jimenez. Does Happ have the ceiling Jimenez does or is he just more likely to reach it?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Great question. It’s the latter. I think Eloy has more tools, but the success the Cubs had in projecting Schwarber has tilted me in favor of Happ as far as selecting to place Happ above Jimenez here. Just so much projection left on Jimenez.

David Askew (Ohio): Oscar De La Cruz put up nice numbers and seemed like a high riser in t he Cubs system - is he one of their most talented pitchers?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: The Cubs had a very, very good staff at Eugene; Justin Steele, Carson Sands, Adbert Alzolay, Pedro Araujo, Kyle Twomey and de la Cruz. The context being, there are many pitchers who rate as intriguing in that organization right now.

tom (Boise): Steele project to better than a #5? Also, E.Jimenez have as much upside as Soler? Thanks

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I think it’s difficult to say Jimenez has as much upside as Soler, given what Soler’s done in his brief career. Have you seen that guy play? But Jimenez has an array of exciting tools; I think it’s fair to say Steele could be a No. 3; batters have trouble lifting his pitches, he pitches assertively but in control and can push the fastball to 95. He needs to develop a changeup.

nb (Philly): Hey Vince - Do you think Eloy Jimenez is ready for a promotion to the MWL next year? I know he's still very young, but what do you see as his floor and ceiling? Thanks!

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’ll say probably; It’s difficult to project what an organization believes a particular player needs in terms of experience or at-bats prior to a promotion. The ceiling is high; he’s got loud tools and is already showing an advanced approach; his strikeout percentage and walk rate portend promising future numbers. A lot can happen from short-season to full-season leagues, however.

Roy (Indiana): Lots of Eugene players on this list. Any thoughts on a couple who didn't make it, Matt Rose & Kyle Twomey?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Neither player played enough to qualify. Rose has a long swing, but has a disciplined approach; Twomey isn’t overpowering but has good life and clean arm action
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 29, 2015, 07:28:07 pm
Strange to me how Happ's supposedly a better hitter than Schwarber. Nothing about their early results bears that out at all. From watching some highlights my conclusion would be that Happ has more power, particularly from the left side, than this list is suggesting but has more flaws as a hitter than Schwarber.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 29, 2015, 09:07:45 pm
I don't think that anyone is saying that Happ will be a better hitter than Schwarber.  What I got out of it is that because the Cubs scouts were so good at "discovering" Schwarber that he will give them the benefit of the doubt when they selected Happ.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on September 29, 2015, 09:12:04 pm
I don't think that anyone is saying that Happ will be a better hitter than Schwarber.  What I got out of it is that because the Cubs scouts were so good at "discovering" Schwarber that he will give them the benefit of the doubt when they selected Happ.

Lara-Cinisomo specifically says Happ's "hit-tool" might be better than Schwarber's, and I don't see how anyone can make that claim. Nor do I see how Happ can been seen at the moment as a plus hitter with average power. Watching him, I think he has more than average power but trouble hitting.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on September 29, 2015, 09:18:33 pm
Sorry.  I was looking at the wrong paragraph.

It seems quite certain that he doesn't come to that conclusion because of current stats.  And I am not sure what scouts look at when they evaluate the hit tool.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 29, 2015, 10:34:35 pm
From Kiley McDaniel's 6 part series on the hit tool.

If you’re scouting a big hitting tools guy with mediocre numbers but when you’re watching him, you see things that indicate he’s better than the numbers and developing some feel, the numbers aren’t very useful. If you’re scouting a smaller guy that’s short on tools but you see him squaring the ball up a lot, the numbers can help tell you how long of a track record he has of doing this in the games you didn’t see. If he’s only ever hit .300 in multiple years of pro ball, this makes it more likely he can keep doing this than if he just showed up to Low-A and you have no legitimate statistical history to look at.

Anything more than this sort of supplemental role for minor league stats is misguided. From working with some of the best analytical minds when I was on the team side and from talking to friends in the game that do that sort of work now, there are two ways clubs pinpoint players they want to acquire as undervalued assets.

1) What I’m describing above: some combination of “our scouts really like this player” and “the freely available numbers give us even more confidence than that singular report would.”

2) Using information that isn’t or usually isn’t in the public realm, be it scout-specific knowledge of injuries or mechanical troubles (often via the area scout that knew the player as an amateur, or a particularly well-connected pro scout) or via numbers (Hit f/x, Trackman and other similar things) that are proprietary in the minor leagues.

You can look at the stats for your team’s prospects and pick out guys you like more than the publications, but that’s not even half of what you need, even if you’re looking at stats from Triple-A.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 29, 2015, 10:46:17 pm
Chris, I had the same questions on guy's Happ writeup. 
*I wonder if he isn't perhaps underselling Happ's power?  He hit quite a few HR's in college, and hit quite a few HR's at both pro levels this summer.   Some of the game-videos showing some reasonably long HR's.  HR power might be better than guy is giving him credit for. 
*I wonder about the positive eval of the hit tool.  Yes, I get this is scouts, not stats.  Happ got scouted pre-draft as having a good hit tool, and again gets scouts as having a good hit tool here (including making 95 look slow).   Yet, he's struck out a lot in three college seasons and now at two pro levels.  I wonder why he strikes out so much if he's got such a good hit tool?  Shouldn't a guy with a notably good hit tool be, like, notably good at hitting the ball rather than swinging and missing? 
*If he has contact challenges, despite making 95-96 look slow, the logical conclusion would suggest problems with breaking stuff. 
*Curious that the author is giving Happ the higher ranking based on Schwarber's success.  Two completely different individuals.
*A reality for a hit-first guy:  you better hit! 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 29, 2015, 10:51:01 pm
I would think it would be tough to put Happ's hit tool above Schwarber's.  Happ's BA was down to a relatively low minor league BABIP for a top prospect.  He just might need more than a 1/2 season to make a judgement on him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 29, 2015, 10:54:26 pm
Shouldn't a guy with a notably good hit tool be, like, notably good at hitting the ball rather than swinging and missing?

Nah....
the numbers aren’t very useful.

Minor league stats only have "a supplemental role" in evaluating prospects and "(a)nything more than th(at)... is misguided," unless, of course, you are using them to come up with the incredibly valuable and accurate PECOTA projections, and then the minor league stats are gospel.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on September 29, 2015, 11:01:01 pm
Nah....
Minor league stats only have "a supplemental role" in evaluating prospects and "(a)nything more than th(at)... is misguided," unless, of course, you are using them to come up with the incredibly valuable and accurate PECOTA projections, and then the minor league stats are gospel.

Take it up with the guy who wrote it and has worked for multiple baseball teams, Kiley McDaniel.  I'm not sure projecting anything off of 165 PA is going to be useful, but I'm sure in your head I've made that argument before.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on September 29, 2015, 11:37:12 pm
Take it up with the guy who wrote it and has worked for multiple baseball teams, Kiley McDaniel.  I'm not sure projecting anything off of 165 PA is going to be useful, but I'm sure in your head I've made that argument before.

I was responding to the idea, whether it is your idea or not is irrelevant.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on September 29, 2015, 11:39:13 pm
I would think it would be tough to put Happ's hit tool above Schwarber's.  Happ's BA was down to a relatively low minor league BABIP for a top prospect.  He just might need more than a 1/2 season to make a judgement on him.

The BABIP factor, that's not puzzling, that can happen.  It's the K-rate that puzzles me.  Seems odd that a college guy would K >20% of his AB over three seasons, and have the K-rate get progressively higher each year.  Had 574 college AB, and 250-something pro AB.  It's possible that there's some cause, which may or may not be coach-away-able.  It's also certainly possible that there will be more than enough HR's and walks to justify however many K's he has going forward. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 01, 2015, 10:10:46 am
Interesting down on the farm report from Chicago Cubs Online:

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2015/10/cubs-down-on-the-farm-report-100115.php (http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2015/10/cubs-down-on-the-farm-report-100115.php)

Here's what they had to say about Dan Vogelbach

Quote
There has to be some concerns as to whether Dan Vogelbach will ever be anything more than an interesting minor league story. The calorically challenged 22-year old was officially listed at 250 pounds. But those who have seen Vogelbach believe that those estimates can be about 20 pounds low. Vogelbach raised more concerns than answered critics with his play for Double-A Tennessee in 2015. Starting off with a .362 batting average in April, Vogelbach was named the organizational Player of the Month. However, Vogelbach’s season went south from there, as he batted .238 the rest of the way to end up at .272/.403/.425/.828 with 16 doubles, a triple, seven home runs, 39 RBI, and a stolen base in 76 games. Even if Vogelbach did not lose nearly half of his season on two trips to the disabled list (hamstring, oblique), he would have been hard pressed to match last year’s power numbers of 28 doubles and 16 home runs. Vogelbach’s lack of mobility and athleticism not only showed up in his defense, but in his base running, forcing the Smokies to play station-to-station whenever he got on base. Defensively, Vogelbach posted a respectable .990 fielding average, but his lack of range was even more glaring at the higher level of play. Vogelbach is part of the new Advanced Fall Instructional League in order to make up for some of the time he lost. There is no guarantee that Vogelbach will be promoted to Triple-A for the 2016 season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 01, 2015, 12:01:39 pm
Vogelbach was a prospect because he projected as a power hitter.  He's never hit 20 HR's in any season, his HR's have declined (19 => 17 => 7), and he hasn't slugged .450 at any full-season level. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 01, 2015, 12:08:25 pm
But he's still a prospect...

Why, you ask?

https://youtu.be/Bnvvn0xrV24
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 01, 2015, 01:04:05 pm
Vogelbach is Rule 5 eligible for first time this Winter. Will see if rostered. Probably, yes. Right?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 01, 2015, 01:23:03 pm
I wouldn't roster him, unless they have a LOT of space.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 01, 2015, 01:28:45 pm
Either traded or exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  Not many teams are going to want him on the bench for a whole year as 1B/DH.  The Indians had a guy a few years ago with a similar profile that didn't get picked and he had better stats.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on October 01, 2015, 01:37:53 pm
I guess they will try and send him as a piece in a trade. If they don't think hes a fit for the big club, try to get something of value from some other team who may value his potential
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 01, 2015, 01:38:21 pm
It bothers me that Vogelbach's weight is estimated to be 20 pounds above his listed weight of 250.

If he is traded, it will be as a throw in along with someone else.  If it comes down to Vogelbach and someone else for the last spot on the 40-man roster, he gets exposed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 02, 2015, 02:02:57 am
BA Top 20 Prospects-Cubs

PCL- nobody

Southern League-

4. Schwarber ("evaluators who saw Schwarber catch in the SL gave him little chance to play the position regularly in the majors").

11. Contreras

19.  Almora

Carolina League-

7.  Underwood

13.  Candelario

15.  Zagunis

Midwest League-

1. G. Torres

6.  Happ
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 02, 2015, 02:20:40 am
Almora's ranking is a bit disturbing. Considering his defensive abilities, intangibles, and age one would think that ranking would be much higher if they had any confidence in him turning the corner offensively.

Would like to see Happ higher but he didn't set the world on fire in that league.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 02, 2015, 03:42:45 am
Almora's ranking is a bit disturbing. Considering his defensive abilities, intangibles, and age one would think that ranking would be much higher if they had any confidence in him turning the corner offensively.

Would like to see Happ higher but he didn't set the world on fire in that league.

SL was strong this year. At #19, Almora sandwiched between Reds very good prospect (#1 according to  Callis/Mayo) Jesse Winkler at #18  and Braves Tyrell Jenkins (from Heyward trade) at #20, who had very good year and moved up to AAA later. So, wouldn't be put off by #19.

More surprised by McKinney shut out of rankings.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 06, 2015, 05:45:47 pm
Carolina League-
7.  Underwood
13.  Candelario
15.  Zagunis

Thanks reb.  Very surprised to see Candelario there.  I wonder how much the BA guy(s) factor in how he did after promotion, or if it's totally based on what he did in the league and what the in-league managers said?  Don't think I'd have considered ranking him ahead of Tseng or Zagunis.  3rd year in full-A, had a .733 OPS in Carolina League, with 5 HR's.  We know he's not fast, and his numbers aren't that good.  If league managers liked him well enough to make #13,  I think that suggests one or several positive things:
1.  His 3B defense is now considered to be pretty decent.  (IN past, there were doubts and BA used to suggest he'd be at best mediocre at 3rd, and might need to move to 1B or LF).  If his defense now looks pretty decent at 3B, his value goes up.
2.  Scouts foresee some power growth.  He's not hit a lot (10 this year, 11 each of last two years.)  But he's still only 21, so maybe they project he might blossom into a 15+ HR guy.  An average-fielding 3B who can hit 15 HR's could start for many big-league teams.
3.  His swing looks good from a scouting viewpoint, even if the numbers haven't been that productive.  Scouting over stats. 

Anyway, pretty surprising and kind of intriguing.  I've kind of forgotten about him.  His 158 AB at Tennessee were pretty impressive.  21K/22BB/5HR/158AB, he'll not sustain that obviously, but that's a pretty nice profile. 

Probably a fluke, but if not he might generate some significant trade value by next July, particularly if he bumped his HR's a bit as can sometime happen with 22-year-olds. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 06, 2015, 05:50:16 pm
The Underwood report has the usual puzzlement.  Fast fastball, heavy fastball, they like his power curve, and they kind of like his change up, yet for all that good scouting A-ball hitters rarely miss and rarely K, and he's kind of a HR-guy.  Still a work in progress, obviously.  Will be interesting to see if his curve and change improve their consistency and effectiveness next year. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 07:08:30 pm
I've seen it mentioned many times from different sources that the lack of K's has more to do with sequencing and what he is working on than his stuff. I guess like most prospects it will be a wait and see.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 06, 2015, 08:39:49 pm
Southern League-
4. Schwarber ("evaluators who saw Schwarber catch in the SL gave him little chance to play the position regularly in the majors").
11. Contreras
19.  Almora

Interesting that Schwarber is only 4th, given how he dominated that league (16 HR in 75 games, 1.000+ OPS).  Probably speaks to the quality/depth of that league.  Contreras being 11th, if there are only 6 guys between him and Schwarber, that's not too bad.  I'm pleasantly surprised that they liked Almora to include him in the top-20.  Mid-July, I'd not have imagined that was even remotely likely. 

Pierce Johnson and McKinney are the other two possibilities that got left off. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 06, 2015, 08:40:32 pm
Interesting that CJ Edwards couldn't crack the PCL top 20. 
I assume Baez wasn't eligible? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 06, 2015, 08:59:01 pm
Midwest League-
1. G. Torres
6.  Happ

Surprised Torres came in #1.  That's a big league, like 15 teams?  I'd have expected somebody with star tools to come in first; usually there's a Buxton or Baez or a big-armed pitcher or something.  Hopefully that speaks to his scouting respect, and to more trade value than I'd have guessed.  Maybe if they don't get a good trade offer for Baez, they should consider big deal involving Torres as a key piece? 

Also surprised Happ at #6, after only 38 games and 39 K's.  Usually there is a good group of present or former 1st round talents in the massive Midwest League.  I'm guessing the quality/depth this year must be down a little, compared to some years.  But, hopefully that also reflects that despite his high K-rate, that from a pure scouting perspective people there think he looks like he'll be able to hit. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 06, 2015, 09:11:28 pm
The Underwood report has the usual puzzlement.  Fast fastball, heavy fastball, they like his power curve, and they kind of like his change up, yet for all that good scouting A-ball hitters rarely miss and rarely K, and he's kind of a HR-guy.  Still a work in progress, obviously.  Will be interesting to see if his curve and change improve their consistency and effectiveness next year. 

BA report says IF Underwood secondary pitches reach their potential, he could be mid-rotation starter. IF secondaries reach potential. That's not too exciting and might explain modest Ks.

Also says floor is back-end power reliever. Those guys are valuable too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 09:20:59 pm
BA is the low man then. BP and McDaniel like him better than that. Just my personal opinion, but BA seems to be more writers than scouts.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 06, 2015, 09:31:53 pm
BA is the low man then. BP and McDaniel like him better than that. Just my personal opinion, but BA seems to be more writers than scouts.

No. Not sure you understand how BA puts together these league top 10 lists. Based on their talks with league managers and coaches and scouts. They have a preamble explaining this methodology every year, which they have been doing for over 30 years.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 06, 2015, 09:43:37 pm
Regarding strength of each minor league and top 10 lists, yeah strength varies year to year. BA rates each league each season from one star (very weak) to five stars.

Southern League this year is a five-star league, Carolina three-star, Midwest League two-star. PCL only a two-star and zero Cubs. Baez ineligible. Edwards, a reliever and few of those appear on these lists.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 09:55:11 pm
No. Not sure you understand how BA puts together these league top 10 lists. Based on their talks with league managers and coaches and scouts. They have a preamble explaining this methodology every year, which they have been doing for over 30 years.

I'm perfectly aware of how they do it. I think it is a flawed process.  Oneri manipulated them like a master and they are still subject to that without the scouting background.  I prefer people that do their own scouting work and then round it out with league contacts (scouts, FO people not league managers) to confirm what they are seeing.  Hence more writers than scouts. Balder is the only guy that I really follow from BA and that is just because he has a ton of international info that most don't have the contacts for. The BA podcast is rather uninformative. The BP podcast and fangraphs podcasts are excellent. They get into the scouting and how to go about looking at stats, when and what is important.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 06, 2015, 10:03:43 pm
They are reporting what a host of league managers, coaches, and scouts are telling them. Numerous sources. Guys from other teams, not just own guys' players. BA has cache and get frank assessments.

You, in other hand, rely on, what, one scout guy? McDaniel? I think he is excellent but to say BA is flawed--given their sources, is ridiculous.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 10:46:06 pm
Well that scout has worked for three teams and just might have better sources plus the ability to detect BS. Teams are going to have multiple reasons to manipulate the info they give out to the media.  It might be to hide a player that improved and hope other teams don't notice, pump up fan bases with the future, or get other teams to think they are missing something on a player. Managers and coaches can help a team in elvaulsting their players, but in large leagues they won't have the looks at so,embody to give a true evaluation of a player. So I would say valuing a lot of what BA prints at face value is naive.

I look at a whole bunch of different sources and try to look for what a majority are saying. When there is a disagreement I will value what BA says the least.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 06, 2015, 11:54:55 pm
Who else does Carolina League top 20 prospects from 1-20?  Midwest League?  Who are these other sources that do this and what are they saying for 2015?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 07, 2015, 12:01:45 am
Well that scout has worked for three teams and just might have better sources plus the ability to detect BS....

Not going to pick on McDaniel because I read and enjoy him..but he's a young guy, has left three teams already as former employers, and now is a blogger.  Is this moving up in the world?

You cited Oneri Fleita as an example of BA source.  Who knows if that's true or not, but Craig used to call it FleitaGush here.  EVERYBODY knew the guy was a BS artist.  To equate Fleita to all the managers, scouts, and coaches that BA talks to when doing their top 20 lists--to support your position--is let's say a very bad stretch. You are better than that. Try harder. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 07, 2015, 02:35:24 am
From BA Carolina League chat:

Teddy (Granville): Hey Josh, thanks for the chat, I remember seeing you at Greenville and Tennessee earlier on in the season, but was wondering about your thoughts on the MB trio of pitchers, Tyler Skulina, Paul Blackburn, and Jen-ho Tseng? Skulina and Tseng both looked like back-end starters when I saw them earlier this year.

Josh Norris: You could find a few guys who liked that trio around the CL, but none of them really knocked anybody off the map. Of that three I’d probably take Tseng just because he’s the youngest and he’s got two average pitches in his FB and CB.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 07, 2015, 03:03:53 am
We dont have a stud pitcher in our whole minor league system.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 07, 2015, 03:06:25 am
Closest probably is Cease, the #2 prospect in Arizona League according to BA.

Will know a lot more about him when he hits full-season ball.

But, when your highest ceiling pitcher is in Rookie ball....... 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 07, 2015, 09:03:49 am
When making Cubs prospect lists, Cease is an easy top 10 guy for me...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 07, 2015, 10:06:44 am
Not going to pick on McDaniel because I read and enjoy him..but he's a young guy, has left three teams already as former employers, and now is a blogger.  Is this moving up in the world?

You cited Oneri Fleita as an example of BA source.  Who knows if that's true or not, but Craig used to call it FleitaGush here.  EVERYBODY knew the guy was a BS artist.  To equate Fleita to all the managers, scouts, and coaches that BA talks to when doing their top 20 lists--to support your position--is let's say a very bad stretch. You are better than that. Try harder. 

There are a lot of reasons that people leave employers, especially in baseball.  Being young has zero influence on how well somebody does there job.

Which do you think is going to get a better response from a team?  McDaniel who sends them a list and asks for feedback, am I too high or too low on somebody with scouting notes or BA who goes please send me a list with scouting notes?  McDaniel has talked about this very issue on podcasts.  He gets better responses from his higher placed sources when it is done the first way. 

A team may have a vested interest in hiding a prospect, say a pitcher with a fastball velocity jump that is Rule eligible.  No team is going to say hey this guy is really good, come draft him.  McDaniel may miss him as well he at least has a chance by going to games.  Say the Cubs want to trade Vogelbach, they would have a vested interest in getting him rated highly and maybe getting a team to question that they missed something.  If your just a scribe for a team these types of things happen.  BA has there place, but to put them on some high ground because they talk to minor league managers is silly.  There are better sources out there.

Everybody knew Onri was a BS artist, but BA still took his word on Cubs prospects.

People are way too low Underwood and it is from scouting the stat line of an A ball pitcher that had things to work on that depressed his strike out numbers.  He is the best chance at a TORP in the system.  Cease shouldn't be viewed as much more than a lottery ticket at this point.    A very talented lottery ticket with TORP, but with way too many questions. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 07, 2015, 10:42:34 am
Cease can throw in the upper 90s, occasionally hitting 100.

He has the potential of becoming Nolan Ryan.

Or Matt Mateos.

Or Dolis.

Or Tommy Hunter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 07, 2015, 02:47:00 pm
First, most of the comments BA publishes are not from the player's own club. So, treating what they do as exclusively from Oneri Fleitas of the world is baloney. Stop just making up stuff out of whole cloth.

Second, I asked a question and you didn't answer:who else is publishing top 20 league lists that you find preferable?

Third, yes folks leave jobs for all kind of reasons, but McDaniel went from scouting for three teams (all lateral moves, right?) to a blogger. You like him above all because he's a fangraphs guy and you swallow fangraphs whole hog. Notion that he has some special methodology superior to BA methodology is ridiculous. Geez, Listen to yourself sometimes.

Finally, one guy cannot possibly cover the multitude of minor leagues and players compared to other sources. BA has more resources and nobody is spread thin.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 07, 2015, 03:19:29 pm
First, most of the comments BA publishes are not from the player's own club. So, treating what they do as exclusively from Oneri Fleitas of the world is baloney. Stop just making up stuff out of whole cloth.

Second, I asked a question and you didn't answer:who else is publishing top 20 league lists that you find preferable?

Third, yes folks leave jobs for all kind of reasons, but McDaniel went from scouting for three teams (all lateral moves, right?) to a blogger. You like him above all because he's a fangraphs guy and you swallow fangraphs whole hog. Notion that he has some special methodology superior to BA methodology is ridiculous. Geez, Listen to yourself sometimes.

Finally, one guy cannot possibly cover the multitude of minor leagues and players compared to other sources. BA has more resources and nobody is spread thin.



1.) So a manager that sees a pitcher 1 time is a better judge of talent? 
2.) I find them kinda useless.     After the top 20 prospects all the list lose a lot of meaning.  The 50th prospect is going to be a lot closer to the 250th prospect than the #1. 
3.) BS.  My favorite prospect guy was Jason Parks, but the Cubs had to go ruin that and hire him.  I like McDaniel, BP and Sickels pretty equally.  Sickels has fallen off a bit in his writing this year, so I don't read him as much.  MLB.com and BA are pretty close in my mind.  I will read them, but I like the other guys better. 
McDaniel worked for the Yankees as an intern.  The Orioles as go between for scouts/anaylytics guys and the Pirates as a special analytics job.  His current job as a blogger let's him do what he wants to do.  Scouting/Analytics.  If some team can give him something similar he will leave.  It has nothing to do with him working for Fangraphs.  If he moved over to BA tomorrow I would likely get a subscription there. 
4.) He sees a majority of the big named guys and has sources that help him as well.  He also has guys that he is working with to develop at Fangraphs.  One of the was hired by ESPN to work with Law. BP has 8 or so guys that Parks hired working in different parts of the country.  Multiples of the BP guys are working for different teams now. 
5.) Any public info is flawed vs what the teams have.  So are just less flawed than others.  Just because BA has been around the longest does not mean they are the best.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 07, 2015, 03:35:09 pm
I don't know what or who is the best. Read them all and find useful information everywhere I can.  But, to characterize BA the way you do, is totally unwarranted. Presumptuous is the way I would describe what you're saying.  And, you make up stuff. How do you know it's "a manager who sees a pitcher 1 time."  Where do you get that? And, you know that McDaniel has seen the guy more or is talking to folks who has seen the guy more?  How do you know the only BA source is a manger who's seen the pitcher once?  You just make up stuff to suit your fave guy and yourself.  Should stop with that. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 07, 2015, 05:35:57 pm
How do you know it's "a manager who sees a pitcher 1 time."  Where do you get that?

You already answered those questions.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 07, 2015, 07:15:12 pm
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 07, 2015, 10:04:57 pm
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.

And what reason is there to believe the folks who compile the ratings, in part based on the opinions of opposing managers, do not also have access to that novel invention called "game logs" and weight those opinions accordingly, or that they really only even ask those managers who have seen a pitcher more than once?  (It's also interesting that you ignore the reference to the opinions of oppositions scouts.)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2015, 11:48:43 am
At the request of other I'm done with it.  I'll post thoughts occasionally on who I might like to see the Cubs target, but I'm not going to get in the long winded discussions. 

Jordan Zimmermann: 201.2 IP x 109 ERA+= 21981
Jon Lester 205 IPx 116 ERA+= 23780

So I expect Jes won't honor the bet, but he'll be back on ignore so I won't know.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 08, 2015, 03:08:28 pm
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.

And how many times did McDaniel see Underwood?  And, how many times did McDaniel's assistants see Underwood compared to BA scouting contacts?

I will tell you.  We don't know.  You just make up stuff regarding who sees who, and how much.  Try to stop doing that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2015, 03:45:45 pm
I'm going to assume that last post is direct at me.  Like I said above, I'm done.

Re: On The Farm
« Reply #670 on: Today at 03:08:28 pm »
Quote
You are ignoring this user. Show me the post.


That is all I see.  If I annoy you that much do the same or pick a fight with somebody else.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 08, 2015, 03:59:29 pm
And no clicking on "show me the post."   :D
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on October 08, 2015, 06:46:58 pm
A good week gets better - apparently the Cubs have just signed Eddy Julio Martinez.
Title: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 08, 2015, 06:57:16 pm
Wha? Thought he signed elsewhere the other day??
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 08, 2015, 06:57:51 pm
A good week gets better - apparently the Cubs have just signed Eddy Julio Martinez.

Link???
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 08, 2015, 06:58:11 pm
No.  His deal fell through last week, which gave the Cubs another shot.  What is the source of the signing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on October 08, 2015, 06:59:48 pm
@keithlaw: Cubs have a potential agreement with Cuban CF Eddy Julio Martinez for $3 million, pending a physical.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on October 08, 2015, 07:00:42 pm
Wha? Thought he signed elsewhere the other day??

There were rumors he signed with the Giants, but that apparently fell through.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 08, 2015, 07:03:15 pm

Cubs Den reporting this, based on Jesse Sanchez tweet.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/10/cubs-sign-eddy-julio-martinez/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on October 08, 2015, 07:06:28 pm
Sign all the batters.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 08, 2015, 07:10:27 pm
Sign all the batters.

They could also use some young stud pitchers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: PRCubFan on October 08, 2015, 07:15:56 pm
The Giants deal fell apart!

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/10/08/report-cubs-have-agreed-to-3-million-deal-with-eddy-julio-martinez/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 08, 2015, 07:17:06 pm
Several sources reporting it on the Twitter...sweet!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 08, 2015, 07:37:24 pm

Eddy Julio Martinez | Rank: 4

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60
Think a young Andruw Jones. That's how some scouts have described the 20-year-old center fielder from Cuba. Evaluators like his body -- described as solid and compact -- and his athleticism. But there's a lot more to like.

In the batter's box, Martinez has a quick and compact power stroke. He's shown the ability to hit home runs to all fields and work the counts. He's speedy out of the box and shows base-stealing potential. Described as "hard-nosed," Martinez is aggressive and not afraid to take an extra-base.

Martinez has shown good instincts on defense and the ability to cover the gaps in the outfield. Those skills combined with a playable and accurate arm make scouts believe he will stay in center field and could be in the big leagues in after a couple of seasons in the Minor Leagues. Scouts also like that Martinez has experience playing for Cuba's junior national teams in Mexico and Venezuela and that he spent two seasons with Las Tunas in Cuba's Serie Nacional, the island's top league.

Martinez, who was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball in May, is eligible to sign. However, it is unclear if he will sign during the current international signing period or wait until the next period that begins on July 2. He is currently training in the Dominican Republic.

The Cubs, Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, Giants and White Sox are among the teams that have expressed serious interest in Martinez.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=int
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 08, 2015, 08:37:47 pm
At the request of other I'm done with it.  I'll post thoughts occasionally on who I might like to see the Cubs target, but I'm not going to get in the long winded discussions. 

Jordan Zimmermann: 201.2 IP x 109 ERA+= 21981
Jon Lester 205 IPx 116 ERA+= 23780

So I expect Jes won't honor the bet, but he'll be back on ignore so I won't know.

Find the post where I confirmed the bet.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 08, 2015, 08:44:17 pm
A good week gets better - apparently the Cubs have just signed Eddy Julio Martinez.

And better still....

I'll post thoughts occasionally on who I might like to see the Cubs target, but I'm not going to get in the long winded discussions.

Like I said above, I'm done.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2015, 09:29:12 pm
Find the post where I confirmed the bet.

You set what would decide the bet and I agreed to it. Weak, but predictable.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 08, 2015, 09:51:26 pm
Interesting/surprising with the Martinez signing.  Lets see if it's really true, or any more true than his reported signing with the Giants.  Sounds like an interesting prospect.  That he supposedly had Giants at $2.5 but couldn't get them or anybody other than Cubs to go $3 or better probably provides some scouting information; if he was as talented as the original hype suggested, wouldn't somebody have gone beyond $3?  At the same time, given tax $3 into his pocket is really $6 out of the Cubs pocket.  So that's still a pretty significant investment, perhaps even more now that the Cubs are serious contenders and $6 spent on a prospect may be $6 not spent on a John Grabow or whatever.  :)  But clearly Martinez, as interesting as he may be, is not in the Moncada or Soler or Puig class of prospects. 

Still, CF is one of our weakest positions, so it's nice to have another option.  If we resign Fowler, if Martinez developed well he might perhaps be ready to graduate by the time Fowler was finishing up?  Or, perhaps Almora would get a shot, and then if Martinez worked out then Martinez could be a little behind so that if Almora washed out, we'd have somebody else to success Almora? 

Anyway, fun to read.   Hope he works out great.  Big leg kick. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2015, 09:51:48 pm
It will be interesting to see what Martinez is and if he doesn't back out. Rumor is multiple teams offered $7 million before July 2nd and the former agent got greedy and was looking for more. His current agent agreed to the $2.5 million with Giants and then they backed out looking for $3 million. The scouting reports seem all over the place. Some say he can't play center and has 12 HR potential.  Other are saying 65-70 runner with 20+ power and the arm for right field. If the Cubs got him for $3 million it seems like a good deal. With penalty it is about what they paid Rivero.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 08, 2015, 10:05:45 pm
Scouts are always all over the place on young IFAs.  Many teams, including the Cubs, had questions about Puig's talent, as well as Cespedes.  They pretty much succeeded, but I am sure that several others in the same situation failed.  The draft is a crap shoot, and the IFA market is even more of one.  The fortunate aspect of this one (if he is actually signed) is that he is not a 16 year old that has to grow into the "projections" for him, and also he has had much more actual game and competition experience than Soler had at the time he was signed.

But the bottom line is, it is only money that is risked, and not all that much in the grand scheme of current baseball finances.  I think Craig mentioned that it is equivalent to a year of Grabow (or Travis Wood).  A lot of money for us, but a tiny part of the Cubs overall budget.

I hope the signing is real, and that he passes the physical.  There is really no "stud" prospect in our system currently, at least in the Bryant or Schwarber class.  Maybe this will be a help to maintain the status of our system.  And there are still a few other unsigned IFAs out there, and more Cubans to come.

Did Vladimir Guererro's kid ever sign with anyone?  I think so, but don't remember for sure.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2015, 10:26:33 pm
Blue Jays for a Vlad Jr I believe, for $4 million or so.

I'd really like some of the Cuban pitchers or the 16 year old Cuban that is supposed to be in the Monacada class of talent. Dodgers will still be large players.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on October 08, 2015, 11:11:14 pm
So where would Eddy Julio Martinez end up in the Cubs prospect list? Top 10? Top 5?  Enlighten me.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 08, 2015, 11:16:01 pm
Top 5.

Since our studs are in the big leagues now we dont have much left IMO.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 08, 2015, 11:31:04 pm
So where would Eddy Julio Martinez end up in the Cubs prospect list? Top 10? Top 5?  Enlighten me.

I'd rank him no higher than 12th and no lower than 15th. My original 11-15 was Happ, Steele, Tseng, Zagunis and Vogelbach.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 08, 2015, 11:50:56 pm
You set what would decide the bet and I agreed to it. Weak, but predictable.

Wrong.  I set what I wanted to bet on, and what would determine the winner.  We both agreed to that.  YOU set what you wanted to bet, and there was NO agreement to that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 12:04:17 am
No more show me posts Jes. Don't bother.

Keith Law tweeted that if Martinez was in the draft he would have gone 4-7, but mostly likely 4.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 09, 2015, 12:49:40 am
No more show me posts Jes. Don't bother.

Of course not.... because there is nothing you can show to support your claim that there was a bet.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 03:48:14 am
Below is Keith Law's report on Eddy Julio Martinez, who he saw this week in the DR.  If eligible, says would have been potential candidate to go #1 overall in next year's draft.  Was asked on twitter if Martinez would have gone 4-7 in most recent draft and Law said would likely have gone in top 4 along with the SSs who went 1-3, Rogers, Swanson, Bregman. Top 4, not 4-7 that was suggested in the question.

The odd summer and now autumn of Cuban center field prospect Eddy Julio Martinez took another odd turn earlier this week when an agreement he sort of had with the San Francisco Giants fell apart, meaning that he was still a free agent and could sign with any club. He's a premium talent, so his market would be limited to teams with cap room left or the willingness to ignore the international cap and pay the 100 percent penalty that signing him would incur.

The Chicago Cubs jumped at the opportunity, agreeing to terms on a $3 million bonus, pending a physical, earlier Thursday night, according to a source close to Martinez.

I flew to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on Tuesday and watched Martinez take batting practice, and he put on a very impressive display of bat speed and power. His swing is very fluid and simple with excellent hip rotation, and despite a minimal stride, the right-handed hitter makes loud contact to all fields, with easy power from left field over to right-center. I did not get to see him play in a game, so what I know of the rest of his abilities -- such as his potential to play above-average center field -- comes from scouts who have seen him. Based on that, the BP I saw and his very live body, I think he's worth well more than the $3 million the Cubs reportedly will pay him. In fact, I think he's much closer to the $10 million or so that pre-July 2 reports had him getting from the Dodgers. If he were in the Rule 4 draft class for next year, we'd be talking about him as the potential No. 1 overall pick, so the Cubs getting him for $3 million is a relative steal.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 03:54:39 am
BA chat:

Joe R (Newport News, VA): The player whose absence surprised me the most was Billy McKinney. Has Almora really passed him by?

Matt Eddy: Yes, Almora has passed McKinney, according to sources I contacted for this ranking. Scouts weren’t bullish on either, but if neither is a frontline masher, then Almora at least has a carrying tool with his glove. You can read everything I have on Almora in his capsule, but regarding McKinney, a lack of notable power or speed or defensive ability or arm really cuts into his ceiling. His track record for hitting is stronger than Almora’s, of course, but scouts noticed poor timing at the plate for McKinney this season. He tended to stride too early and hit without his weight behind him, in the words of one source. This is a correctable problem, of course, but on the merits of 2015, I didn’t see a compelling argument in his favor.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 03:57:05 am
BA rankings.

11. Willson Contreras, c/3b, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2009.

Signed by the Cubs as a 17-year-old third baseman in 2009, Contreras spent his first three seasons as an unremarkable infielder before converting to catcher in 2012 . . . whereupon he spent three seasons as an unremarkable backstop. That changed in 2015 when Contreras hit .333 and won an unlikely batting title in the SL by going 12-for-27 (.444) in the final week to pass Max Kepler.

Even in a breakthrough season, Contreras began the year in a time-share with Kyle Schwarber and didn’t assume the starting job full-time until late June. He has a chance to be an offensive catcher in the big leagues, owing to his disciplined approach and short, compact stroke that produces lots of contact and power to the gaps. He ranked second in the SL with 34 doubles and with a .413 on-base percentage, while placing third with 151 hits.

A high-energy receiver who exudes confidence, Contreras combines strong receiving ability, good hands and average arm strength that can be improved by shortening his arm path and quickening his release. He also made eight starts at third base in 2015 and has spotted at first base in the recent past.

19. Albert Almora, of, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Hialeah Gardens, Fla., 2012 (1). Video

While Cubs first-rounders Javier Baez (2011 draft), Kris Bryant (2013) and Kyle Schwarber (2014) have put in half-seasons at Tennessee on their rapid rise to Chicago, Almora, the sixth overall pick in 2012, has progressed at a slower pace. He reached the SL late in the 2014 season and improved his year-over-year production in 2015, particularly in the second half when he hit .301/.370/.464 with 23 extra-base hits and 19 walks in 51 games.

A premium defensive center fielder, Almora recorded more putouts per game (2.4) than any SL outfielder but Byron Buxton, Max Kepler or Mallex Smith. He tends to play shallow because he ranges back on the ball so well, and scouts think highly of his lateral range and overall defensive instincts. Though he does not possess blazing speed or more than gap power, Almora is a smart baserunner who will profile as a top-of-the-order hitter if he can improve his on-base percentage and possibly steal a few more bases.

Almora makes a ton of contact—just two players who qualified for this ranking struck out less often—so the Cubs have stressed that a more patient approach would benefit him by allowing him to see more hitter’s counts and draw more free passes. On that note, Almora walked in a career-high 7 percent of plate appearances in 2015. Scouts love his competitive makeup and his ability to focus in big spots, but some don’t see a plus tool outside of his glove, viewing him as more of an outfield extra.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 04:10:11 am
Arizona Phil at Instructs yesterday:

Rob Zastryzny tossed four innings of one-hit shutout ball for the Cubs, and...About a dozen scouts were on hand to watch Zastryzny and his newly-minted curve ball that has coaches at instructs talking. The much-improved breaking ball could get Zastryzny on track to be a the pitcher the Cubs hoped he would be when they drafted the 6'3 left-hander out of the University of Missouri in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft.   

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 09, 2015, 06:57:38 am
Big discrepancies in the evaluation of Martinez:

Quote
Rick (SC): What has been the hold up with Eddy Julio Martinez signing? Any chance he doesn't sign until the 2016-17 period?

Ben Badler: He’s a solid but not great prospect who wants more money than teams want to pay him. And there are a lot of other Cuban players out there ahead of him. I think he’s more popular on the internet than he is with scouts.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 09, 2015, 08:50:13 am
Thanks for all the info and quotes, guys. 

As Chris notes, the variance of opinion on Martinez is fascinating, and perhaps even more extreme than the typically divergent evaluation of guys.  Law thinks he might be on par with top-4 draft picks and a possibility for #1 next year; Kiley M has very favorable scouting scores; Badler, typically the most invested and connected media guy regarding internationals, not that interested.  Wasn't there some scouting report from a Cuban source ranking the Cuban prospects, who didn't have Martinez even in the top ten? 

Maybe Badler's reads more negatively than he really means; the early hype was exaggerated, so maybe he's emphasizing not Moncado or Soler/Puig or a $10/$40/$90 guy; perhaps some pushback against the hype makes his note sound more negative than it really is. 

Regardless, great to have some added talent.  Law's is the most recent/current analysis, so I like that. 

Ultimately perhaps the best perspective is the $$$.  If teams thought he was great, he'd have gotten more and gotten it sooner.  But even for the Cubs, spending $6 on a guy isn't peanuts.  I'll put him my Cubs top 12 somewhere. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 08:52:27 am
Of the public publications is it just Badler/BA that seems down on him?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 09, 2015, 08:56:02 am
There was also some Cuban thing, I think that had him 13th or 19th or something in the guy's ranking of eligible or expected-to-become-eligible Cubans. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 09, 2015, 09:03:49 am
Rob Zastryzny tossed four innings of one-hit shutout ball for the Cubs, and...About a dozen scouts were on hand to watch Zastryzny and his newly-minted curve ball that has coaches at instructs talking. The much-improved breaking ball could get Zastryzny on track to be a the pitcher the Cubs hoped he would be when they drafted the 6'3 left-hander out of the University of Missouri in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft.   



Encouraging.  Would be fun if the combination of being healthy and developing an effective breaking ball could make him worth watching again. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 09:17:33 am
There was also some Cuban thing, I think that had him 13th or 19th or something in the guy's ranking of eligible or expected-to-become-eligible Cubans. 

I know Badler has a list like that was it his or somebody else.

Now, for the criteria in determing the winner....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 09, 2015, 10:07:08 am
... I'll put him my Cubs top 12 somewhere. 

Quote
Jim Callis  ✔@jimcallisMLB
No. 12 between Cease & Vogelbach. Report should be up today.


Right after Cease is also what I had. 


Bigger surprise is that he's got Vogelbach at 12; I don't have him in my top-30. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 09, 2015, 11:46:04 am
There's a major disconnect here. Law thinks Eddy Julio would have been one of the top four in the 2015 draft, yet none of the 30 teams thought he was worth more than $3 million? Ian Happ got $3 million, and a dozen 2015 draftees got $3 million or more.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 12:20:41 pm
The way McDaniel explains it is pre July 2 he had an offer for $7 million from a team believed to be the Yankees and he had a good chance at getting between $11-12 million. His previous agent wanted a lot more than the $12 million and teams balked and spent their IFA money elsewhere. He switched agents and the price dropped in an effort to get him signed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 01:59:02 pm
Difference between $3 and $12 is so much that would be worth it to Martinez to wait until clubs offering the latter could offer it again. So, don't buy he ever that kind of offer in this murky world of int'l baseball. Just doesn't make sense.

Ben Badler/BA has written extensively about Cuban baseball, as Craig notes, about arcane signing rules, etc. So, think Badler is probably best source, with caveat that his most extensive write-up about Martinez was back in June or July and maybe Martinez has improved somewhat with training, conditioning, etc. in these circumstances, a guy his age can get better fast. Martinez' power stats are dismal, FWIW, so there is that. I take Law's report as encouraging, really glad to have Martinez here, and we'll just see what we've got when he plays here.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 09, 2015, 02:08:29 pm
There's a major disconnect here. Law thinks Eddy Julio would have been one of the top four in the 2015 draft, yet none of the 30 teams thought he was worth more than $3 million? Ian Happ got $3 million, and a dozen 2015 draftees got $3 million or more.

Not a total disconnect.  Most of the teams that would be interested are already close to or over their limit.  In the Cub's situation, for instance, he will cost 6 million, which is not very far from what Bryant cost them.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 02:26:10 pm
Another thing to remember is that he has spanned two signing periods already.  His bigger money offers won't be able to spend big again until July 2, 2017.  It may be case that if he wants the bigger paycheck he's going to be waiting until the next signing period unless the Dodgers get interested.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 09, 2015, 02:38:25 pm
Not a total disconnect.  Most of the teams that would be interested are already close to or over their limit.  In the Cub's situation, for instance, he will cost 6 million, which is not very far from what Bryant cost them.

Bryant was drafted, and could either sign with the Cubs or return for his senior year. Martinez was a free agent. The Cubs spent close to $6 for one season of Motte, Maholm, Feldman and other "bargain bin" free agents. Assuming he needs two years in the minors, the Cubs will control Martinez for eight or nine years. Soler got $30 million. The Cubs weren't the only team in the penalty phase, and some of the others could have gone over if they wanted him badly enough.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 09, 2015, 02:42:57 pm
Another thing is that there is usually a substantial difference between scouting evaluations of the same prospect, and it is probably even wider with players that can only be evaluated at workouts, rather than live games.

And, of course, the reports of what was offered might be inaccurate.

But the biggest thing probably is that the Yankees can not sign him this year because they went over their limit in 2014, and they might have made a desperate attempt to sign him by offering over market price for him.  The agent might have then overestimated the market and mistakenly thought he could get more in the new signing period.

Or, the Cubs might like him a lot more than the competition.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 02:43:43 pm
Jon Heyman in his notes column today says Martinez deal with Cubs might not be final and that Giants "seem to have some hope" that can still sign Martinez.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2015, 03:24:48 pm
Bryant was drafted, and could either sign with the Cubs or return for his senior year. Martinez was a free agent. The Cubs spent close to $6 for one season of Motte, Maholm, Feldman and other "bargain bin" free agents. Assuming he needs two years in the minors, the Cubs will control Martinez for eight or nine years. Soler got $30 million. The Cubs weren't the only team in the penalty phase, and some of the others could have gone over if they wanted him badly enough.

I don't anybody is putting him in the Monacada/Soler class. The question is where he falls from there. $3 million isn't much for a Cuban.  The DBacks and Angels signed guys for more money that were less talented than what Martinez is supposed to be.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 09, 2015, 04:29:23 pm
Bryant was drafted, and could either sign with the Cubs or return for his senior year. Martinez was a free agent. The Cubs spent close to $6 for one season of Motte, Maholm, Feldman and other "bargain bin" free agents. Assuming he needs two years in the minors, the Cubs will control Martinez for eight or nine years. Soler got $30 million. The Cubs weren't the only team in the penalty phase, and some of the others could have gone over if they wanted him badly enough.

Sorry.  I think I misunderstood your point.  If you are saying that Martinez is not as good a prospect as Soler or Bryant, I certainly agree with you.  Until he actually plays in the minors, I would probably rank him somewhere near Ian Happ, one side or the other.

Six million isn't giant money in the IFA free agent market, but it did get us both Jimenez and Torres a couple of years ago.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 09, 2015, 10:37:18 pm
Seems like Martinez-to-Cubs NOT a done deal, at least to the Giants pont of view.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/evans-giants-still-in-hunt-for-eddy-julio-martinez.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 10, 2015, 05:04:49 pm
Cubs instructs notes.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/instructional-league-notebook-dewees/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 13, 2015, 01:50:04 pm
The Arizona Fall League starts today

http://appraisingarizona.blogspot.com/2015/10/arizona-fall-league-preview-glendale-vs.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 13, 2015, 02:42:36 pm
What time does the game start?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 13, 2015, 02:57:03 pm
Game's underway now. Pierce Johnson starting, Contreras and Zagunis in the lineup.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2015_10_13_msswin_gddwin_1#game=2015_10_13_msswin_gddwin_1,game_state=Live
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 13, 2015, 03:07:16 pm
GiantsProspectTalk
‏@giantsprospects
@JesseSanchezMLB Hey, is the Eddy Julio Martinez signing with the Cubs a done deal or is it still limbo?

Jesse Sanchez ‏@JesseSanchezMLB  20h20 hours ago
Jesse Sanchez Retweeted GiantsProspectTalk
Cubs

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: OkieCubsFan on October 13, 2015, 03:53:04 pm
Got a feeling it's going to be a long day.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 13, 2015, 08:51:20 pm
Reb won't have to worry about me posting any more Kiley McDaniel info as the Braves have hired him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 13, 2015, 09:48:45 pm
AFL results -

Contreras: 0-5, 2 K

Zagunis: 0-2, 2 BB, K

Johnson: 3-3-3-3-2-1

Zastryzny: 2-1-1-1-1-3

Black: 1-0-0-0-0-2
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 14, 2015, 06:41:19 pm
Eddy Julio Martinez has multiple agents!

MLB will decide who is binding.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25339794/mlb-expected-to-pick-a-team-soon----giants-or-cubs----for-cuban-of
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 14, 2015, 10:50:53 pm
Candelario: 3-4, 2B, BB, CS

Garner: 1-0-0-0-2-2

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_14_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 15, 2015, 12:00:18 am
Eddy Julio Martinez has multiple agents!

MLB will decide who is binding.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25339794/mlb-expected-to-pick-a-team-soon----giants-or-cubs----for-cuban-of

I  hope MLB is quicker on this issue than they were with the Joe Maddon tampering investigation.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2015, 12:25:54 am
I wonder with the way it is was reported with Law and Sanchez saying Cubs and not the Giants, if the Cubs have a deal with his real agent and the Giants have a deal with one of the buscones.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on October 15, 2015, 09:15:31 am
I wonder with the way it is was reported with Law and Sanchez saying Cubs and not the Giants, if the Cubs have a deal with his real agent and the Giants have a deal with one of the buscones.

The other way around.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/154494356/cubs-giants-both-lay-claim-to-eddy-martinez

Martinez is represented in the Dominican Republic by trainers Aldo Marrero and Amauris Nina. He is represented in the United States by Beverly Hills Sports Council. It was Marrero and Nina who made the deal with the Cubs. It was BHSC that made the deal with the Giants.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2015, 12:18:30 pm
That is what I get for speculating.  I think this paragraph is important though.

"According to sources, Martinez signed the term sheet for the Cubs on Oct. 8 and filed it for approval by the Commissioner's Office one day later. The Giants submitted paperwork claiming a deal with Martinez the day after they came to terms. However, representatives for Martinez claim the player did not sign a term sheet for the Giants or the sworn statement that says a Cuban player is in compliance with Section 515.05 of Cuban Assets Control Regulations in order to sign with a Major League team."

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 15, 2015, 12:36:52 pm
Obviously, the Martinez situation is murky and probably pointless to speculate about and the sportswriter, Sanchez, has been wrong at least twice already...but the issue seems to be agency and not what forms Martinez personally may not have signed and submitted to MLB (other than the appropriate agency agreement between him and the agent). The actual agent has authority to make an agreement on behalf of the client. That's what agency is. So, probably a matter of deciding who is the actual agent for purposes of a contract with a club. If MLB finds it too murky to decipher, they may just void both agreements. At that point, Martinez would probably sign with Cubs or whoever has most money on the table at the time.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 15, 2015, 05:11:54 pm
While the issue may be one of agency, an individual may have any number of agents, each of who may have the legal capacity to bind the principal (the individual or corporation with the agents) to different agreements, sometimes conflicting agreements.

In this case, the question of whether the proper (and required) forms were timely filed may play a significant role if one side got them files and the other did not, particularly if MLB requires the prospect himself to also sign "a term sheet... (and a) sworn statement" of compliance with applicable Cuban regulations.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2015, 06:45:47 pm
According to Law in his chat, the Cubs have the inside track on Martinez since they have a signed term sheet. He also mentioned that the Giants may have offered Martinez one amount and put a smaller amount on the term sheet.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 15, 2015, 06:54:59 pm
According to Law in his chat, the Cubs have the inside track on Martinez since they have a signed term sheet. He also mentioned that the Giants may have offered Martinez one amount and put a smaller amount on the term sheet.


It seems really unlikely that the Giants would pull something like that.


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2015, 07:08:22 pm
Ray Michael: As a Giants Fan this Eddy Julio Martinez thing is just so strange. What is the latest you are hearing? Who has the edge the Cubs or the Giants?
Klaw: He has an agreement with the Cubs that should be binding, as he didn’t sign the term sheet with the Giants … and I know there’s a disagreement over whether the Giants’ term sheet reflected their initial financial offer to the player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 15, 2015, 11:10:56 pm
Contreras: 1-3, BB, E

Zagunis: 0-2, BB, K

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_15_msswin_surwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 16, 2015, 07:39:54 pm
Friday action -


Candelario: 5-5, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Contreras: 2-4, HR, RBI, BB, K

Black: 1-4-4-4-2-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_16_surwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 16, 2015, 08:28:14 pm
Decent day for Jeimer...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 16, 2015, 08:28:59 pm
Wowza, wowza.  What's gotten into Candelario? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on October 17, 2015, 01:08:05 pm
Candelario has dropped on most everyone's prospect list here, but he is still an intriguing player who very well could turn into a very productive player. Probably not in CHI at 3B but maybe in another position or for another team.
And I was hoping Corey Black would have a strong fall league season to build back up some trade value, but is not off to a good start.  :'(
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 17, 2015, 01:16:46 pm
The Black bullpen experiment has shown little success. At some point they should let him start again.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 17, 2015, 01:25:37 pm
John Arguello's take on Friday's AFL game includes bits on Corey Black, Willson Contreras, Bubba Starling, and Jeimer Candelario.

http://appraisingarizona.blogspot.com/2015/10/notes-from-surprise-vs-mesa-candelario.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 02:02:13 pm
Martinez is officially a Cub.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on October 19, 2015, 02:48:59 pm
Great news!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 19, 2015, 03:02:18 pm
Does Baseball America reporting this without any clarification about the dispute between the agents or the Giants and Cubs really constitute a confirmation?  That's the only place I'm seeing it so far.  Is there another source/link?




Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 03:04:55 pm
Jesse Sanchez ‏@JesseSanchezMLB  2h2 hours ago
Source: Eddy Julio Martinez is officially a member of the Cubs. He signed 10 days ago. The background: http://atmlb.com/1KaHVCB

GiantsProspectTalk
@JesseSanchezMLB Is the Eddy Martinez saga over, has MLB made a decision?

Jesse Sanchez ‏@JesseSanchezMLB  2h2 hours ago
Cubs (It doesn't come through on the copying text, but he made the font really large in the tweet)

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  10m10 minutes ago
Eddy Julio gets $3M. #cubs
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 19, 2015, 03:34:45 pm
So EJ Martinez is our top prospect now?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 19, 2015, 03:34:49 pm
Nice to have that confirmed/completed and in our favor. 

Hopefully he becomes an effective player. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 03:46:34 pm
So EJ Martinez is our top prospect now?

Gleyber Torres is still around.  Hopefully he is the first of some Cubans that will be joining the Cubs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 19, 2015, 03:55:59 pm
And wearing knit hoods and long underwear
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 19, 2015, 04:45:37 pm
I've got Martinez in my top dozen or so. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on October 19, 2015, 05:32:50 pm
This article has a video of Martinez taking batting practice:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25346047/cubs-not-giants-land-cuban-outfielder-eddy-julio-martinez-for-3-million
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 19, 2015, 06:30:35 pm
Gleyber Torres is still around.  Hopefully he is the first of some Cubans that will be joining the Cubs.

Gleyber is from Caracas, Venezuela, not Cuba.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 06:34:38 pm
Gleyber is from Caracas, Venezuela, not Cuba.

I wasn't clear. I think Torres is still the top prospect in reply to Dusty and was hoping that Martinez would be the first of a some Cubans that we sign.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 19, 2015, 07:04:51 pm
Contreras: 1-3, 2 BB, K, PB

Zagunis: 0-2, 2 BB

Zastryzny: 4-6-3-3-0-4

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_19_scowin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 07:12:07 pm
Arguello was at the game and Zastrynzy was 92-93 through his 4 innings. He was working on his curve ball and it was hit hard. I wonder if Zastrynzy might be better off in relief if his fastball can play up a bit.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 19, 2015, 08:06:04 pm
Jesse Sanchez has updated piece on the Martinez signing.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/154943864/eddy-julio-martinezs-deal-with-cubs-accepted?topicid=151569562
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on October 19, 2015, 08:12:20 pm
GREAT news on Martinez.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 19, 2015, 08:38:35 pm
I'm very concerned about the Cubs' ability to scout and develop pitchers. Only two pitchers originally drafted or signed as an IFA by the Cubs pitched at the MLB level this year. James Russell was 0-2, 5.29 in 34 innings, and he was released. Dallas Beeler was 0-1, 9.72 in 8-1/3 innings over three starts. Frank Bautista, Eric Jokisch, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Ryan Williams and Rob Zastryzny were the only home-grown starters to pitch above Class A ball.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 08:54:09 pm
The Cubs should have a pretty decent group of starters at AA next year. Williams and Johnson will be in AAA. The Cubs have plenty of pitching depth, just not upper tier talent. The scouting side isn't an issue, they have done really well with trading for pitchers and getting major league cast offs. They just haven't spent first round picks on pitchers, that makes it much harder to find diamond in rough guys. They also seem to like pitchability guys over velocity guys in the draft, that will limit the upside as well.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 19, 2015, 08:56:19 pm
I'm very concerned about the Cubs' ability to scout and develop pitchers. Only two pitchers originally drafted or signed as an IFA by the Cubs pitched at the MLB level this year. James Russell was 0-2, 5.29 in 34 innings, and he was released. Dallas Beeler was 0-1, 9.72 in 8-1/3 innings over three starts. Frank Bautista, Eric Jokisch, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Ryan Williams and Rob Zastryzny were the only home-grown starters to pitch above Class A ball.

I think they scouted and developed Arietta okay.  Hendricks and several relievers, too.  Acquiring players from other teams which do not properly value a prospect's potential, OR the potential of someone in the majors but who has never reached their potential, and developing that prospect or player, also involves scouting and developing a player... and that includes pitchers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 19, 2015, 08:57:12 pm
Good point.  The concept has been to go with volume of pitchers outside of the top round.  Maybe it will succeed.  But sandwiches Blackburn and Johnson haven't done a lot, and very high 2nd rounders Zastryzny and Stinnett, haven't shown anything.  Of the first three high-$$$ internationals, Paniagua, Concepcion, and Rivero, they've looked like washouts, although Tseng has a chance. 

Obviously they haven't put in first round picks on pitchers.  But it's not clear that they've either scouted or developed pitchers especially well.  Derek Johnson may be terrific, and a combination of little injury setbacks and non-1st round picks may have set things back.  But, his program hasn't seemed to produce much fruit yet.  We'll see.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on October 19, 2015, 09:02:56 pm
Derek Johnson joined he Cubs not quite three years ago, so it may be a little early to evaluate his effect on either the drafting or development process for pitchers.  I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on October 19, 2015, 09:31:51 pm
For whatever the Cubs strengths and weaknesses are with regards to scouting and development of pitchers, I really hope they keep Bosio around for a LONG time. He can't be given all the credit for the success of Arrieta, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, Cahill, Hammel, Richard, Rodney, etc., but my goodness, look at what he's done with Arrieta, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, Cahill, Hammel, Richard, Rodney, etc.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 10:02:41 pm
Good point.  The concept has been to go with volume of pitchers outside of the top round.  Maybe it will succeed.  But sandwiches Blackburn and Johnson haven't done a lot, and very high 2nd rounders Zastryzny and Stinnett, haven't shown anything.  Of the first three high-$$$ internationals, Paniagua, Concepcion, and Rivero, they've looked like washouts, although Tseng has a chance. 

Obviously they haven't put in first round picks on pitchers.  But it's not clear that they've either scouted or developed pitchers especially well.  Derek Johnson may be terrific, and a combination of little injury setbacks and non-1st round picks may have set things back.  But, his program hasn't seemed to produce much fruit yet.  We'll see.

Concepcion and Rivero were not really high priced by Cuban standards.  Paniagua seems to be a miss, but a lot of high priced IFA bust. 

Players picked in the supplemental first round after Johnson only Eddie Butler (-1.1 rWAR and Travis Jankiwski 0.1 rWAR) have reached the majors.  Alex Wood is the only pitcher in the first 5 rounds drafted after Johnson that has broken 1 rWAR yet.  Point being it is really early to judge them.  Underwood seems to be really interesting.  Drafting pitchers is tough, you have to get the projection on the talent right and health on your side.  Not using first round picks increases the degree of difficulty.

They may very well feel that they can identify MLB scraps that Bosio can fix as a better way to find pitching.  The Pirates do it as well.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 19, 2015, 10:39:22 pm
For whatever the Cubs strengths and weaknesses are with regards to scouting and development of pitchers, I really hope they keep Bosio around for a LONG time. He can't be given all the credit for the success of Arrieta, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, Cahill, Hammel, Richard, Rodney, etc., but my goodness, look at what he's done with Arrieta, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rondon, Cahill, Hammel, Richard, Rodney, etc.

You can add Maholm and Feldman to that list.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 19, 2015, 10:43:04 pm
How did the Cubs ERA stack up against the rest of the NL and the rest of the majors?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 19, 2015, 10:46:29 pm
Very easy to look that up yourself.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 19, 2015, 10:58:14 pm
How did the Cubs ERA stack up against the rest of the NL and the rest of the majors?

Third behind the Pirates and Cardinals.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 20, 2015, 07:52:04 am
Thanks, BlueJay.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 20, 2015, 06:06:58 pm
Candelario.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/155036858/cubs-jeimer-candelario-receives-afl-award
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on October 20, 2015, 06:45:19 pm
Batted .800 (leading league in hits and doubles) and only co-player of the week.  Tough league.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 21, 2015, 12:54:05 am
Candelario: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, K

Johnson: 4-3-3-3-2-4

Garner: 2-1-0-0-0-5

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_20_msswin_scowin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 21, 2015, 05:02:25 pm
Contreras: 3-4, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI,   2B to RF,  2B to CF,  HR to LF

Zagunis: 1-2, 2 BB, K

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_21_msswin_perwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 21, 2015, 06:18:05 pm
Candelario and Contreras are liking it down there.  I remember a lifetime ago when guys like Robin Jennings, Brooks Kieschnick, and Roosevelt Brown were AFL superstars, back when that league was new.  Oh the memories.  Zagunis is funny; he's played 4 games, got his first hit today.  He's had 2 AB each game, 1 hit total, but has a .533 OBP.  Two walks per game in three of them, one walk in the other.  Fun with small samples. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 21, 2015, 07:05:06 pm
Quote
— Cubs prospect Willson Contreras had a good day at the plate with a pair of doubles. Contreras doubled off the wall in left-center in the fourth and hit one to the warning track in right field in the seventh. He also hit a game tying two-run homer in the eighth.


http://wboor.mlblogs.com/2015/10/21/afl-mesa-at-peoria-10-21-15/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 21, 2015, 08:23:57 pm
I wonder if Contreras is going to play winter ball?  Has he in past winters?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 21, 2015, 08:27:31 pm
Contreras played in Venez last winter.  He credited that with really helping him, playing in a serious, highly competitive, serious-fans environment with mature players and a lot of pitchers with experienced breaking balls. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 21, 2015, 08:57:08 pm
He might benefit more from a breather than stretching it to 20 consecutive months of playing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 21, 2015, 08:59:37 pm
Oh, absolutely.  I can't ever remember a guy doing AFL and then doing Caribbean League besides
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 22, 2015, 12:10:02 am
Oh, absolutely.  I can't ever remember a guy doing AFL and then doing Caribbean League besides
I believe Corey Patterson did just that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on October 22, 2015, 12:12:58 am
I believe Corey Patterson did just that.

That's probably what ruined his career.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 22, 2015, 01:21:30 am
The Cubs may have let CP play in the AFL and one of the winter leagues, but I doubt the Cubs would allow any more than a cameo appearance in the winter leagues for a catcher who played the whole minor league season and then went to the AFL.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 22, 2015, 08:45:57 am
I don't think it was mentioned, but MLB.com rates Martinez 12th on the Cubs list. If he had signed with the Giants he would have been 6th on theirs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 22, 2015, 11:42:45 am
So EJ's not a bad ass by any means.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 22, 2015, 11:56:24 am
Not unless he tears things up in the first year of pro ball.  It is very difficult to evaluate someone just on tools alone.  Workouts and exhibitions are great, but they don't give a good idea how a player will do under game situations.

There seems to be two uncertainties with Martinez.  Will he grow into power, and will he grow out of center field?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 22, 2015, 12:41:17 pm
From Keith Law's chat

Mark: How good is Willson Contreras defensively?
Klaw: I’ve heard more than just playable or average. So far I’ve only seen him hit here – two doubles and a homer yesterday – and I love what I see at the plate.

JR: The full Kyle Schwarber was on display in the NLCS: great hitting, not so great defense. Is it something the Cubs keep living with and hope the defense improves, or do they look to trade him to an AL team for pitching?
Klaw: I think he ends up an average or fringe-average defender in LF. I doubt they trade him – the front office believes very, very strongly in his makeup.

(Is trading Schwarber a thing?  Is that the JR?)

Julio: What level would you expect Eddy Julio Martinez to be at to start next season (assuming not some EXST for extra ABs, obviously)
Klaw: Probably low-A to see what his approach is like, because I don’t think anyone knows how advanced or raw he is in that regard.

Joe: Do you see Arrietta staying this good? I mean he’s 29 years old already and just finally had his first 30 start season.
Klaw: I see no reason to argue that he won’t.

Sage: What offseason moves do you see the Cubs making?
Klaw: Add a starter, maybe two (one higher-end, one for depth), use some of that infield logjam to acquire pitching help.

Robert: At what point does Price’s sky high postseason ERA over 7 starts enter a GM’s analysis especially when this post season it’s actually been worse?
Klaw: Any GM who considers that is stupid and will get what he deserves, which in this case is not having David Price.

Mark: How soon can Wilson Contreras get a look in Chicago? Montero’s second half and playoffs worries me greatly.
Klaw: I think he can be part of the catching solution there next year, not right away but over the course of the whole season.

Brian: Local media in Chicago is already speculating that Kris Bryant will be moved to the outfield next year. But if he can handle 3rd, which the limited data we have on him says he probably can, isn’t there where he would provide the most value? It’s easy to shore up an OF spot than a 3rd base spot, right?
Klaw: Buster asked me this on the podcast too – I think he can play third. Good arm, good hands, range might be a bit limited, but he has instincts and is another great kid with a good work ethic. He’ll never be worse than “adequate” there. FWIW, I like his chances to stay there more than Gallo’s.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 22, 2015, 05:06:23 pm
Candelario: 0-4, K

Contreras: 0-4, 2 K, E

Black: 1-1-0-0-0-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2015_10_22_perwin_msswin_1
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JR on October 22, 2015, 05:10:24 pm
Quote
JR: The full Kyle Schwarber was on display in the NLCS: great hitting, not so great defense. Is it something the Cubs keep living with and hope the defense improves, or do they look to trade him to an AL team for pitching?

Klaw: I think he ends up an average or fringe-average defender in LF. I doubt they trade him – the front office believes very, very strongly in his makeup.

(Is trading Schwarber a thing?  Is that the JR?)

Nah, that's an impostor JR.  :)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 22, 2015, 10:24:26 pm
Why would anyone pretend to be JR.  Even the real JR would rather be someone else.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 22, 2015, 10:55:58 pm
It's easy to tell it isn't JR.  It was an intelligent question.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 22, 2015, 11:07:26 pm
Leave the snot nosed brat alone.  He is the best Nashville has to offer.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 22, 2015, 11:11:08 pm
I mean he did ask about trading Schwarber....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 23, 2015, 11:11:03 pm
Candelario: 1-4

Zagunis: 1-3, BB, K

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2015_10_23_srrwin_msswin_1
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 24, 2015, 05:14:52 pm
Contreras: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, E

Zastryzny: 5-6-2-2-0-7

Black: 1-2-1-0-0-2

Garner: 1-0-0-0-0-1

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_24_msswin_srrwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 24, 2015, 08:05:03 pm
Cubs Den was at the game and said Zasatrnzy's runs were due to BABIP luck and sloppy D. He said he looked better today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 26, 2015, 05:11:39 pm
Willson Contreras hitting liners all over Arizona today.

Law wrote this about him in his blog:

Quote
I only got to see the Cubs' Willson Contreras hit but not catch, unfortunately, so I can't speak to his defensive abilities. But I can tell you his swing was one of my favorite right-handed swings in the AFL with a clean path and tremendous body control throughout. He loads back by his right shoulder and explodes forward to the ball with excellent hand strength that allowed him to adjust well to changing speeds and to pitches on the outer third. If he can catch as well as the Cubs believe he can, the decision to convert Kyle Schwarber to another position becomes even easier.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4424
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 26, 2015, 05:29:09 pm
Cubs prospects do major damage in 3-run 8th and 6-run 9th.


Contreras: 2-4, 2B, SF, RBI

Candelario: 1-5, 2B, 2 RBI

Zagunis: 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 K

Johnson: 4-6-2-2-1-1

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_26_msswin_gddwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 26, 2015, 05:32:29 pm
Back to Contreras, he lined a single to left, doubled off the wall, lined out, and hit this sac fly:

https://twitter.com/cubearhawk/status/658739930428870656/video/1


Quote
Willson Contreras continues to make hard contact in #AFL. Doubles off LF wall.


https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/658012847385931776
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 27, 2015, 04:42:39 pm
BP's Chris Crawford:

Quote
This might have been the most pleasant surprise of the first half of the Fall League. I knew Contreras had the catch-and-throw skills, and I had seen the statistics that suggested he could hit, but I wasn’t prepared for just how advanced he is offensively. The extension he gets on his swing is impressive, and he hit the ball hard to every part of the field in my multiple looks. This isn’t Kyle Schwarber with the bat or anything, but add in a 55 glove and 60 arm, and I think it’s obvious why so many believe it’s Contreras who will be the backstop of the future in Chicago.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 27, 2015, 05:05:59 pm
Leave Schwarber in LF.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 27, 2015, 05:18:16 pm
John Arguello on Willson Contreras

http://www.scout.com/mlb/cubs/story/1604069-afl-cubs-prospects-willson-contreras (http://www.scout.com/mlb/cubs/story/1604069-afl-cubs-prospects-willson-contreras)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 27, 2015, 05:55:12 pm
Contreras: 0-4, BB

Garner: 1-0-0-0-1-1

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_27_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on October 27, 2015, 10:26:26 pm
Sorry to lose Turner.  They must have less room on the 40 man roster than I thought.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on October 28, 2015, 11:06:44 am
Or the scouts weren't excited about his recovery.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on October 28, 2015, 11:13:28 am
Cubs might be planning to be more aggressive with some young pitchers... that might have pushed turner off the their radar.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 28, 2015, 11:16:33 am
I had hopes for Turner, too.   I was hoping he was another great reclamation project.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 28, 2015, 11:20:29 am
Or the scouts weren't excited about his recovery.

This is what I'm wondering about.  The Cubs don't have a ton of pitchers that have to be put on the 40 man this off season and there isn't a reason to put somebody on the 40 man in the off season that doesn't have to be.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 28, 2015, 11:29:37 am
But wouldn't you want a good outfielder over a bad pitcher?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 28, 2015, 12:07:02 pm
Who is in the Cubs organization that needs to be rostered right now?  If they were going to try and sneak Turner through waivers it would make more sense to do it closer to the rule 5 draft when rosters are tighter.  Right now everybody has plenty of space so any interesting players will get claimed by somebody, if it is only a temporary move to try and sneak them through later.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 28, 2015, 12:20:42 pm
Or they could have left on the 60 day DL, right?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 28, 2015, 12:21:19 pm
The Cubs had the same problem with Turner that they still have with Szczur, Medina and Villanueva - all four are out of options, and unlikely to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training. They'll probably keep Szczur and Medina at least until CF and RP are more settled, but Villanueva figures to be gone (released or traded) before the Rule 5 roster deadline.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 28, 2015, 12:21:58 pm
Cubs current roster--until end of World Series--is full at 40. So, that should tell us that most clubs are at or near the 40-man limit.  Of course, clubs can drop players but this was a good time to try and get Turner through waivers on an outright.  But, all that depended on Turner accepting an outright, which he had a right to decline based on his circumstances.  So, perhaps Turner was ready to leave the organization in any event.  Perhaps we'll get more details later.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 28, 2015, 12:23:37 pm
Arizona Phil's detailed comments on some instructional guys:

At Advanced Instructs, 2015 Carolina League batting champion Chesny Young continued to hit line drives all over the yard and displayed really good base-stealing technique. The Cubs tried him at SS at Advanced Instructs, and while he has the range to play there, he doesn't have the arm or ball-handling skills you look for in a SS. He probably projects as an offense-first 2B-3B-LF (maybe CF, too). He should be the Opening Day 2B at AA Tennessee in 2016. He is what I would call a "precision" hitter. If you put a bulls-eye somewhere in the outfield, he could probably hit it eight out of ten times. He is the classic "old school" high-contact #2 hitter in the order, sort of like Glenn Beckert with speed.

C-1B Victor Caratini was rakin', showing power and a good eye at the plate. He is well below-average defensively, however (he looks better at 1B or 3B), so he may end up being a switch-hitting C-1B-3B guy at the MLB level. He should be the #1 catcher at AA Tennessee in 2016, but he will probably gets reps at 1B & 3B as well.

RF Jeffrey Baez is a raw five-tool player who occasionally shows his ceiling. He seems to have settled in RF and plays that position pretty well, and he held his own offensively, too. He has more HR power than his game stats show, and he is a good base-stealer, too. He hit mostly lead-off at Advanced Instructs. but he might profile eventually as a #3 hitter if and when he starts to hit HR in games. He should be the Opening Day RF at Myrtle Beach in 2016. 

RHSP Duane Underwood Jr had his ups & downs, with a lot of swinging strikeouts, but he also got hit harder than you might expect gven his TOR projection. He seems to lose focus at times (more than would be normal for a young pitcher). I wouldn't be surprised if Underwood begins the 2016 season back at Myrtle Beach, at least until he can get on a roll. 

RHRP Michael Jensen was especially effective out of the bullpen at Advanced Instructs, mixing a 91-93 MPH fastball and a curve. He works fast and throws strikes. He could be a decent reliever at Iowa in 2016, and has MLB potential.

At "basic" instructs, Cubs 2015 2nd round draft pick Donnie Dewees (U. of North Florida) expanded his game, showing top of the order skills (not always swinging at the first pitch, bunting, and hitting line drives) while playing a solid CF. He doesn't have much of an arm, but he covers a lot of ground. He went 5-5 with the game-winning walk-off squeeze bunt single in the bottom of the 9th in the one game that was played. He has a similar-type skillset as Jake Hannemann, but I think Dewees is a better hitter. 

Cubs 2015 1st round draft pick Ian Happ (U. of Cincinnati) looks stiff at 2B, but I think he'll still probably be developed as a multi-postional player (1B-2B-3B-LF-RF). He has a nice stroke and runs OK, and he is a hard worker.   

Cubs 2015 12th round draft pick P. J. Higgins (Old Dominion U.) could be the next Chesny Young, a college position player with good eye-to-hand coordination and the athleticism to play multiple positions. Higgins was a part-time catcher in college, but (somewhat surprisingly) the Cubs haven't tried him there yet. He played all over the infield at instructs.

18-year old Korean OF Kwong Min-Kwon showed power (he won the Cubs AZIL HR Derby) and he looks like he could be a decent 1B-LF-RF.

And then Eloy Jimenez is just a beast. He was actually held out of the HR Derby because the coaches felt it would be unfair to the other contestants to let him participate. I saw him hit seven HR balls onto the 3rd story roof of the UAPC beyond the LF fence on Field #3 at the Riverview Baseball Complex in just one single BP session. I'm anxious to see how Eloy fares at South Bend in 2016.

Up until the last day, the pitchers only threw bullpen sessions, and not much can be gleaned from that. But from having seen them a lot in EXST, I can say that RHP Oscar de la Cruz and LHP Justin Steele are probably the best starting pitcher prospects among the guys who were at Eugene.

Submariner RHRP David Berg (Cubs 2015 6th round draft pick - UCLA) is efficient with his pitches and gets weak contact. It is difficult for batters (especially RH batters) to pick up his pitches. He threw an eight-pitch (seven strikes) 1-2-3 9th inning in the Cubs AZIL World Series Championship Game. He could be in the Cubs bullpen by sometime next season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on October 28, 2015, 01:05:57 pm
Or they could have left on the 60 day DL, right?

At some point he would have to be taken off the 60 day DL, I believe it is after the World Series.  A fair number of teams are clearing out space on their 40 man, so it isn't a shock that he got picked.  If I'm counting correctly the White Sox are at 38 on their 40 man roster with Turner.

Just from a talent stand point Jokisch, Beeler, and Medina would have all been guys I would have cut first, unless something is physically wrong with Turner.  With his surgery he might not have been ready to go to start the year, so he could have been put on the DL to start the year and then sent on rehab start so the option problem may not have been huge either for a bit.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on October 28, 2015, 01:47:35 pm
At some point he would have to be taken off the 60 day DL, I believe it is after the World Series.  A fair number of teams are clearing out space on their 40 man, so it isn't a shock that he got picked.  If I'm counting correctly the White Sox are at 38 on their 40 man roster with Turner.

Just from a talent stand point Jokisch, Beeler, and Medina would have all been guys I would have cut first, unless something is physically wrong with Turner.  With his surgery he might not have been ready to go to start the year, so he could have been put on the DL to start the year and then sent on rehab start so the option problem may not have been huge either for a bit.

Just from a talent stand point i only count about 6 on the Wsox roster.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 28, 2015, 02:27:22 pm
Immediately when WS ends, Cubs roster will go from 40 to 32 (because of the free agents).

Cubs also figure to release/outright Teagarden, Berry, and probably Herrera.

That will be 29.

When time comes, Cubs will add Contreras, Candelario, P. johnson.  That's 32. Might add more Rule 5 eligibles, possibly. The guys AZ Phil mentioned as candidates. Some bench guys will be signed--maybe Denorfia or somebody like him. Maybe Rodney/Cahill will be back or somebody like them. Maybe a lefty reliever. Maybe a starting pitcher FA. Or two starting pitchers. Maybe trades with guys coming in, with perhaps some non-40 man Cubs prospects going back that don't create additional roster room. Maybe they like a Rule 5 guy they want to draft.

So, you can get to or near 40 in short order. That's the reality. There always is a  roster squeeze of sorts if have organizational depth and things to do in off-season.

That impacted the Turner situation. If you tell him now maybe you'll DL him for 2016, he's probably not too thrilled to hear that and tells you he won't accept an outright. So, waive him now. Every roster spot is precious.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 28, 2015, 02:43:21 pm
Turner wasn't very good when he was healthy, not good command.  With surgery, fair chance to recapture the velocity, but questionable to recapture even the level of command he had formerly, much less improve.  Few July surgery guys are ready to pitch competitively the following spring.  So, this would likely have been mostly a rehab year.

The Cubs may have tried to slip him through and failed.  Possible that something in his surgery or in his makeup made them less hopeful than with the average surgery guy, but could also be that the surgery alone just didn't make him a good risk. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on October 28, 2015, 04:43:24 pm
Well, this is new.  Craig is destroying a guy AFTER he's been dropped.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on October 28, 2015, 05:08:53 pm
I dont see the need to be tore up over Jacob Turner either.

I'd rather roster Corey Black than him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on October 28, 2015, 05:49:46 pm
Mesa manager Mark Johnson and C Willson Contreras were both ejected by the first base ump after a HBP.

The fire alarm was sounding at Salt River but it was because the chef had burned lunch.

The Solar Sox beat the Saguaros 11-10.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 28, 2015, 05:53:10 pm
Cadelario: 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI

Zagunis: 2-4, HR, 4 RBI, BB, K

Black: 1-1/3 IP, BB

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_28_msswin_surwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on October 29, 2015, 12:42:09 am
Mesa manager Mark Johnson and C Willson Contreras were both ejected by the first base ump after a HBP.

Actually, they were both ejected by the second base umpire in the sixth inning. Contreras was on the bench, because Brockmeyer was catching today. The HBP was a Saguaros' pitcher hitting the Solar Sox's second baseman. Perhaps Arizona Phil or John Arguello will explain what happened to cause the ejections.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 29, 2015, 06:43:48 pm
Contreras: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Candelario: 0-4

Zagunis: 0-3, BB, K

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_29_surwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 29, 2015, 06:44:34 pm
Quote
#Cubs Willson Contreras made an outstanding throw to nail #Rangers Lewis Brinson trying to steal second. Good pop, transfer, throw.

https://twitter.com/BerniePleskoff/status/659830331051143168
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 29, 2015, 07:26:51 pm
Keith Law chat today:

Dino: What are your thought on Jemier Candeliaro and W. Conteras. Are we looking at Major league regulars?

Klaw: Yes on Contreras. Candelario hits enough to be a regular at 3b but is a 40 defender there.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on October 30, 2015, 04:17:05 pm
reb, thanks for Az Phil comments on instrux.  The "beast" Eloy comments are pretty interesting.  Games aren't like bullpens or BP, so remains to be seen how often he'll be able to connect and lift.  But it's nice to consider the possibility of having a monster. 

The Happ comments were rather blah.  The Dewees comments were encouraging.  He's got to hit and get on base.  Hopefully he'll figure it out.  Interesting that no other Latin guys (Galindo, or somebody) got any mention. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on October 30, 2015, 04:27:44 pm
At the end of comments, Phil talks about David Berg possibly pitching in majors next season.  Thought that was interesting too.  These type of relievers invariably are overlooked as "prospects" and some of them end up having some nice seasons in majors.  Berg was probably greatest college reliever of all-time, so wouldn't be a shock if got to big leagues fast.  Think he's somebody we have to think about when we get past all-star break next season, especially when we consider the makeover that 2015 Cubs bullpen got after the break. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 30, 2015, 05:56:14 pm
Contreras: 1-4, K

Zastryzny: 3-5-4-4-2-4

Garner: 1-5-3-3-0-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_30_msswin_scowin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on October 31, 2015, 05:39:05 pm
Zagunis: 0-2, 2 BB

Candelario: 0-3, BB, 2 K

Johnson: 4-5-3-2-3-4

Black: 1-2-1-1-0-1

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_31_scowin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 02, 2015, 04:34:06 pm
Contreras: 1-4

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_02_perwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 03, 2015, 01:41:38 pm
BA/Contreras.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/cubs-contreras-catches-on-with-detailed-approach/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 03, 2015, 05:59:33 pm
Time to put Black out of his misery and back as a starter.

Contreras: 1-5, 2B, RBI, 2 K

Candelario: 1-3, SF, RBI, K, 3 E

Black: 1-1/3 -2-6-5-3-0

Garner: 1-1-0-0-0-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_03_msswin_perwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 03, 2015, 06:04:55 pm
I think it's time to put Black out of his misery and back as a Yankee.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on November 04, 2015, 01:02:18 am
Black's ERA is up to 11.74, but he's headed to the "Fall Stars" game. Were these names drawn by lot?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on November 04, 2015, 09:02:29 am
Reverse order by height?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 04, 2015, 09:06:14 am
Alphabetically by height and weight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 04, 2015, 10:24:08 am
It doesn't matter if they go to the All Star Game or not.  Everyone in the Fall League gets an "I participated" sticker.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 04, 2015, 04:23:12 pm
Zagunis: 0-3, RBI, BB

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_04_srrwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on November 05, 2015, 07:52:02 am
Quote
Theo Epstein’s plan when he joined the Cubs organization was to stock pile young players. The first wave made their presence known this season in the majors. The next wave, however, is already starting to bring in accolades.

Saturday some of the best young stars of the game will be on the field together at the Arizona Fall League’s Fall Stars game. The Cubs already knew they would be well represented with a pair of prospects being named to the team. But Wednesday, they received a little more good news.

Both the East and West team had their final roster spot decided by a fan vote. Cubs prospect Jeimer Candelario received the most votes and is headed to the Fall Stars game.
The game will be on the MLB Network at 7:00 P.M. CST.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 05, 2015, 02:52:37 pm
ArizonaPhil had an interesting explanation as to why Black is on the All Star Team.

It seems that it really an All Star Game, but rather more of a "showcase" game.

Before the season starts, each team nominates three players that they would like to see in the "All Star Game".  Phil guesses that the Cubs nominees were Contrares, Johnson, and Black.  The League then tries to accommodate each team's wishes, consistent with other constraints, one of which is that there are only two starting pitchers allowed on the team.  This year, two starting pitchers from other teams were selected, which meant that Johnson could not be on the All Star Team, so the League went with Contreras and Black rather than the more reasonable Contreras and Johnson.

Candelario was added by fan vote when he was not on the Cubs initial list of three.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2015, 08:59:49 pm
Contreras pulled a ha,string and is done for the fall.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 05, 2015, 09:34:41 pm
Ha,strings are painful.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 05, 2015, 09:36:47 pm
Think puppeteers use them in their act.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2015, 09:42:41 pm
Special kind of hamstring.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 05, 2015, 10:34:03 pm
Is it anything like an LOL,string?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 06, 2015, 10:29:15 am
Both are connected to the ham bone.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 12:12:54 pm
BA Cubs Top 10:

1. Torres

2. Contreras

3. Happ

4. Underwood

5. Cease

6. Almora

7. McKinney

8. de la Cruz

9. Jimenez

10. Candelario
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on November 06, 2015, 12:31:29 pm
Quote
Willson Contreras had to leave Thursday’s game against Salt River in the third inning with an apparent injury. Contreras hurt his leg trying to beat out a double play and did not return on defense in the bottom of the inning.

The Cubs have not addressed what happened to Contreras but the reports from the park did not sound promising.

https://youtu.be/O34HxwHo-H8 (https://youtu.be/O34HxwHo-H8)

Quote
Video of the at-bat, does not show him running to first base.

Multiple reports indicated Contreras hurt his hamstring running to first base and had to start hopping before he reached the bag. One report stated he “went down in a heap” after he made it to first base and “walked off the field gingerly.”

In 14 games, Willson Contreras hit .283/.361/.547 with five doubles and three home runs for a .908 OPS. Contreras was named to the East Division squad for the upcoming Fall Stars Game. Contreras has improved his stock even more this fall and has become over the course of the year arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball.

If the reports from the park are accurate, and based on the sources of those reports there is no reason to think they’re not, the Cubs should shut Contreras down so he is not slowed in Spring Training. Contreras was looking forward to playing in the Venezuelan Winter League again but it’s highly unlikely the Cubs would allow him to participate.

Will provide additional information on Contreras once the team updates his status.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 06, 2015, 01:24:04 pm
Part of the BA scouting report on Torres.

1. Gleyber Torres, SS

Baseball America provided scouting grades for Gleyber Torres, as it does for every team’s top prospect, based on the 20-80 scouting scale. Torres scouting grades: Batting: 60; Power: 60; Speed: 55; Defense: 60; Arm: 60

Is anyone else surprised about the 60 rating for power?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 01:56:55 pm
Yeah, I wouldn't have expected power to be his highest score.  That might explain why they had/have him so high, both for his league and now for the Cubs.  Hopefully they and their sources are wisely seeing something that we maybe have under-appreciated about Torres? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 06, 2015, 02:01:37 pm
Yesterday's Mesa box

Contreras: 0-1, BB

Candelario: 1-4

Zastrzny: 5-1-0-0-1-3

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_05_msswin_srrwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 02:10:23 pm
Z!  Nice to see a good line for him for a change. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 02:21:11 pm
Any comments or scouting tools on De La Cruz? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 06, 2015, 02:45:04 pm
Yeah, I wouldn't have expected power to be his highest score.  That might explain why they had/have him so high, both for his league and now for the Cubs.  Hopefully they and their sources are wisely seeing something that we maybe have under-appreciated about Torres? 
Is it adjusted for position?  ie, would it be that high if he was a 1B?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on November 06, 2015, 03:09:03 pm
That 60 power rating for Gleyber is for future power, not current power. He's more a solid line drive hitter now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 06, 2015, 03:16:36 pm
It shouldn't adjust for position, either.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 04:16:00 pm
BA chat (John Manuel):

Mike (Bergenfield, NJ): With Contreras a better rated catching prospect then Schwarber, and Scwarber's noticeable defensive struggles in the outfield this postseason, do u see the Cubs moving Schwarber to an AL team by 2017?

John Manuel: Contreras is not a better-rated catching prospect; he’s a better defensive catcher. But Schwarber’s bat is so spectacular … they’d have to be overwhelmed with a pitching offer to trade him. It’s more likely that they will work hard to make him a better defender. I think the Cubs could be more creative, especially with Contreras’ athletic ability and potential versatility. Would Joe Maddon be bold enough to have one full-time catcher (say, Montero, under contract through 2017) and 2 reserve catchers in Contreras and Schwarber who both are multi-position options? I don’t know if they could pull that off. To me, Schwarber is their everyday left fielder, and they will live with the struggles. Contreras will get added to the 40-man roster and hopefully continue improving his receiving to be a potential replacement for Montero.

Grant (NYC): I see you have Schwarber at C on your 2019 lineup card, and Baez in LF. Could you explain this to us? Thx

John Manuel: I was just trying to fit everyone in. Those are always best-case scenarios. I just as easily could have put Contreras at C and Schwarber in LF, but I prefer Baez to Contreras. That’s why I did it.

Jeff (Wisconsin): You guys seemed high on McKinney on the midseason top 50. What has changed since then? The injury? His numbers were solid at AA considering his age.

John Manuel: We were high on him, as he was raking in high Class A. We talk to a lot more scouts for the postseason stuff than we do at Midseason because it’s not a moving target and the games are over; it’s easier to find scouts, it’s easier to get information and to delve deeper into players. McKinney reminds me a lot of Tommy LaStella; he’s an above-average hitter, chance to be plus, though he did not handled lefthanders at all this year, which is a red flag if he wants to be a regular. Like LaStella, he’s not a great athlete, and other than the hit tool, all the other grades are average or below. What is he, profile wise? It’s hard to see him being an impact player at this point. Most of the scouts I talked to saw both Almora and McKinney and were fairly split. I prefer Almora; I think there’s more there, better body, much, much more defensive value.

Frank (Chicago): Did Dewees get any consideration for this list? Thanks John.

John Manuel: Not really. I like Dewees OK, but not for the top 10. He has adjustments to make, and again, what is the profile? Is he going to hit for power? If not, is he going to draw more walks? What’s his defensive value? IF it does not come together in those regards—if he is a high-average guy with speed who plays LF and doesn’t hit for power—then who is he? He’d really have to hit for a very high average. He’s more of a 21-30 kind of guy for me.

Frank (Chicago): What's Vogelbach's projection at this point? Future DH for an AL club? Still in your top 30?

John Manuel: Look for him in the Rule 5 draft preview. He’s blocked, he didn’t have a huge year due in part to injury, he’s never hit for prodigious power and he lacks defensive value. I didn’t realize I was so grumpy today but I apparently am. I like Vogelbach, but I don’t see him being a factor for the top 30.

Matt (Naperville, IL): How big of a tumble did Pierce Johnson take in your rankings? If he can stay healthy and his command improves, what is he?

John Manuel: Pretty decent tumble; talked to a scout who saw him recently in the Arizona Fall league, and it wasn’t pretty. The reports of the stuff have backed up and the durability has not improved. I love my Colorado pitching prospects, but Kyle Freeland, Marco Gonzales and Pierce Johnson all are doing their best to make me stop having blind faith in that phylum of players.

@Jaypers413 (IL): Do you see Theo changing his drafting strategy and grabbing a projected frontline SP with his first pick next June (assuming one of the top guys is available), considering their pronounced lack of power pitchers in their system?

John Manuel: It’s really an apples to oranges question, because now the Cubs are not drafting high anymore. The value at the top of the draft, from a historical perspective, has been with bats, not arms. The Cubs just got rewarded for following this by taking Bryant (over Jon Gray) in ’13 and Schwarber over a host of guys in ’14 (such as Jeff Hoffman), so they went Happ this year in a bad pitching draft. Picking at the end of the first round changes things, though. First, will they even have a first-rounder? They could lose it for signing a free agent. Second, the top bats are often gone by the end of the first round, so they could be more amenable to drafting pitching in the first round. But that wouldn’t be a change in strategy; it would be a change in circumstance.

@Jaypers413 (IL): Between Sands and Steele, who would you say has the higher ceiling?

John Manuel: I just call them Sands-Steele because I have a hard time differentiating. But as was the case last year, the answer is Steele.

Kelly (St. Cloud, MN): Is Torres sticking at short for the foreseeable future? Three years from now?

John Manuel: Read the report … but the answer is yes. He’s a shortstop now, and 3 years from now, when he’s a ripe old 21.

@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for chatting, John. What's the word on Contreras' injury from yesterday in the AFL? Anything serious?

John Manuel: Just saw that his hamstring injury apparently is serious enough for him to get pulled from the Fall Stars game. Too bad. As long as it’s not torn, I can’t see that being a huge deal considering the timing; as long as he shuts it down and rests for next spring, he should be fine.

Mike (Boston): Curious about why Eddy J. Martinez didn't crack the list. He seems like the sot of premium international signing who would slot in immediately. Do you view him as a candidate to place high on the list next year?

John Manuel: He’s not. Premium int’l signings are for 8 figures, not 7. I’m not making light of it, but premium international guys all get in the 10s of millions of dollars. Some of the media reports of Mr. Martinez’s tools, to our understanding, are inflated. He can really run and has athleticism. We’ll see about the bat. He’s an 11-20 kind of guy.

Jon KK (Elkhart, IN): With Christian Villanueva getting scrunched by infielders above and below him, even with a decent all-around game does he have a chance to make it to the majors? Any trade value?

John Manuel: Not really with the Cubs, except maybe in a utility role. He doesn’t run great or have super positional versatility, so he’s more a trade guy, but he’s a Triple-A 3B-2B with modest power. He won’t fetch much. I think he’s more likely to be DFA’d sometime in the future and traded that way, otherwise he’ll bide his time as insurance at third base in Iowa. Not a bad player, but not an impact guy, and you win titles with impact players who have impact tools. He’d be the White Sox’ best third baseman though!

RotoChamp (Arizona): Willson Contreras came out of nowhere in 2015 and is now #2 on the list. If you had to give a name currently out of the top 20ish prospects that could make the top 5 next year, who would that be?

John Manuel: Contreras is one of the biggest climbers I can think of in 15 years of Handbooks. I’m sure there are others, but consider that Contreras was Rule 5-eligible last year (and every year since 2010), but wasn’t picked. Oscar Hernandez, a low Class A catcher, was picked, but not Contreras. I wish I had ranked him but I don’t think I was alone in missing him; 29 other teams had a shot at him in a way as free talent and chose not to take him. As for outside the top 10 guys who could really jump up … the Cubs’ young Latin American arms such as Adbert Alzolay and Pedro Araujo are intriguing. DJ Wilson, their 4th-round pick, could jump high into the top 10 if his workout tools translate into full-season production. Maybe Kevonte Mitchell will get it, but man, he did not back up my great faith in him this year. Disappointing season.

RotoChamp (Arizona): Did Carl Edwards exit from the top 10 because of 'stuff' concerns or is the transition from SP to RP the only reason for his descent?

John Manuel: The reliever deal was kind of important. Chalk that up as a pretty big whiff by yours truly; I really thought that guy was going to be a star. Sorry for getting your hopes up, Cubs fans.

Larry Young (Dallas Texas): With a lot of outfield prospects, which one excited you the most? Eloy Jimenez?

John Manuel: Honestly, I’d say Almora, because I think he’s starting to get it. I like my Aaron Rowand comp for his career going forward — grinder, good CF on defense, 6-hole hitter type, not a star but a solid-average regular, good teammate, glue guy, etc.

TK (Wilmette): Ryan Williams, Jeremy Null and Daury Torrez each had years as starting pitchers with very low BB rates. What are their upsides?

John Manuel: This is the best question of the chat so far, TK; hang a star on this one. I really like Torrez compared to many of the Cubs’ pitchers due to his true FB command. If he had a secondary pitch that was above-average, he’d be in the Top 10. Alas, he lacks such a pitch, so he’ll just keep grinding his way toward Chicago, but it’s hard to see him as an impact guy. He throws harder than Null or Williams; I like Null better than Williams as a poor man’s Doug Fister with his size, angle and solid slider, which is better than any of Williams’ secondary pitches. Williams is unique though; I think of him as a Seth Maness type, perhaps because both went to East Carolina but mostly because both are extreme sinkerballers. Like Maness, I think Williams fits best long-term in a bullpen role, maybe he’ll find a bit more velocity there. I believe 2 of those 3 will be in the final 30, but I had to do both Cubs & Cardinals this issue, and those 30s aren’t done yet.

mike (utica): Based on the scouting reports on Dylan Cease is his ceiling along the lines of Sonny Gray?

John Manuel: Somewhat as both short guys with big stuff, though Gray was stronger-bodied than Cease at a comparable age. But the huge — think Trump saying YUUUUGE — difference is, everyone loved Sonny Gray’s makeup, both out of HS and at Vandy. He just had the it factor, and no knock on Cease, but he is not Sonny Gray. He’s just not. Scouts loved Sonny Gray’s makeup when he was an amateur.

Teddy (Granville): Hey John, thanks for the chat. I got the chance to see Candelario take infield practice a few times this past season, and due to the footwork I don't think he'll be able to maintain the mobility to stay at third past his prime, what are your thoughts on this?

John Manuel: Scouts don’t agree with your assessment. I have words like “light on his feet” and “agile” in my notes, plus “outstanding defender” and “good instincts” in my reports from three different professionals in the scouting field. You may prove to be right, but those are my thoughts on this.

Michael Caldwell (Madison, Indiana): How likely is this list to need a major overhaul before Spring Training because of trades? Thanks!

John Manuel: I don’t think it is likely; the Cubs can spend, or they can trade major league-ready players such as Arismendy Alcantara or Javy Baez. Maybe a couple of guys such as McKinney or Contreras, but many of the rest of the Cubs’ higher-ceiling prospects are quite young and need a bit more time to establish the kind of trade value the club needs to trade for a pitcher good enough to start 2 games per playoff series.

Sang (Chicago): Not really a prospect question but at the beginning of the season scouts said/projected Bryant to having the best power in the system, after the season that Schwarber had do scouts still feel the same way?

John Manuel: I haven’t asked that question; I still think Bryant has more power, but as I wrote last year, Schwarber is a better pure hitter and gets to his power a bit more. I do think it’s worth noting that Schwarber tailed off; he had the HRs in the postseason, most impressive, but he hit .216 after Aug. 1 in the regular season. I think he’s the better pure hitter, more balanced, etc., but Bryant makes adjustments, has a big athleticism edge and has plenty of power on his own. I think it’s close but edge on power to me still goes to Bryant.

Navin (Pasadena, CA): What are your thoughts on pitchers Carson Sands and Justin Steele? They received quite a bit of attention for their big bonuses but appear to have been passed by teammate Oscar de la Cruz.

John Manuel: They have been passed by the bigger, better athlete. Nothing wrong with either of them, though. Steele’s a solid athlete, making progress, Sands is more polished with less projection. I like both but they are both step-a-year guys. De la Cruz is the one who’s the potential stud.

Dan That Cubs Fan (Cubby Bear): Where do the Cubs rank in comparison to the rest of the league after so many call ups last year? Still a top 5 farm system in terms of talent?

John Manuel: Closer to the 7-12 range for me, but frankly, there are a LOT of bad farm systems out there. The influx of young players in the majors is awesome for everything but the Handbook, haha. Not a lot of great farm systems this year.

Teddy (Granville): Thoughts on both Chesny Young and Tyler Skulina, MLB potential for both? Love Skulina's fastball + slider combo when he's healthy.

John Manuel: Skulina’s stuff has been inconsistent because he’s struggled to stay on the field. Young is a nice org depth guy, a righthanded LaStella in a lot of ways, lacks power to be an impact big leaguer but he’s a really good hitter who controls the bat and the strike zone. His defensive versatility is fine but does not really include SS. He may hit his way there though; I’m trying to find a spot for both in the 30. Both likely but not a lock.

Archie (Indiana): Which arm in the Cubs system right now has the best chance to be a TOR arm? How likely do you think that is to happen?

John Manuel: Cease and de la Cruz have the most upside; Underwood is closer to the big leagues but I think of him more as a potential No. 3 starter tops. Cease though is electric, and de la Cruz is a beast physically who has the potential to be really special.

Andrew (Charlotte): Still early, but with a couple months more perspective, how would you rate the Cubs 2015 draft?

John Manuel: I like the draft from the early reports on Happ, Bryan Hudson and DJ Wilson. However, I also am intrigued by Craig Brooks, who throws hard, and submariners/sidearmers Dave Berg and Preston Morrison. Those last two were college studs; if one of them turned into Darren O’Day, that would be a real nice budget pick. Of course, at this time last year, I was all about Jake Stinnett from their 2014 draft; really not sure what happened there. He’s probably the biggest disappointment from the Cubs’ ’14 draft.

Hector (Chicago): Can Happ make it to the show next season and make the same contributions as Shwarber

John Manuel: No. He’s got a chance to be an impact bat and maybe a lesser version of a Ben Zobrist; he doesn’t have the shortstop ability Zobrist has had, but he has similar offensive impact potential according to some of the scouts I talked to. One thing is Zobrist never struck out as often as Happ does. That swing-and-miss propensity is the one caveat with Happ that holds me back on him a bit. There are a few questions in the queue about Happ moving as fast as Schwarber; that answer is no. I do not think he is that pure of a hitter.

PBish (Chicago): Did Brad Markey make the top 30?

John Manuel: He will make it, interesting guy, liked him as an amateur, think he has a shot as a reliever and might even start. Short, sharp breaking ball, I saw him up to 94 when he was at Va. Tech, and he’s pitched well as a pro. Pretty long track record too going back to Santa Fe (Fla.) CC. Nice sleeper.

PBish (Chicago): Did Mark Zagunis get any consideration for this list?

John Manuel: He didn’t miss the top 10 by much, has his advocates, tough call on him vs. Candelario. I think Jeimer has much more defensive value. But if things break right, Zagunis could wind up in Chicago quickly as an extra OF. He lacks position versatility now that he’s not a catcher, though, and he may not wind up with corner power. He’s got a chance to hit his way into being a big league regular in LF, though.

Jacob (Chicago): Noah Syndergaard for Addison Russell. Who says no?

John Manuel: I don’t know! I love challenge trades like that one … I would guess the Mets say no, though, and hope they can upgrade SS without trading the rookie who won them their only World Series game. Syndergaard is another guy I was very wrong about. This is a humbling business sometimes!

Chris (East Lakeview, IL): I saw your earlier comment on Carl Edwards. Do you think he may yet return to the rotation? Carlos Martinez pitched in relief for StL his first couple seasons before returning the rotation this postseason. Possible for Edwards?

John Manuel: Possible but unlikely. He’s not that physical or that caliber of athlete.

Harry (Dallas, TX): How many of these are likely to make the top 100?

John Manuel: Surprisingly, I’d say anywhere from 3 to 7 of these guys are top 100 candidates, though most of them are 60-100 range types. I like Torres a lot and know others at BA feel the same way. Contreras is tougher with a short track record but Double-A success and position scarcity. Happ’s an easy Top 100 guy as a high draft pick who went out and hit immediately. After that it’s a crap shoot …

Don (Chicago): Does a guy like Felix Pena make your Top 30? He lead the organization in strikeouts in 2015, but was never really a potential prospect prior to this year.

John Manuel: At least two of the scouts I talked to believe he should be in the 30. Frankly, I’ll wait until the last minute and see if the Cubs put him on their 40-man roster. He’s been Rule 5 eligible before and gone unpicked, but he’s up to 95 regularly as a starter, had a strong season, and I think he’d be popped this year if left unprotected. If they protect him, he’ll make the 30. If not I’ll have his writeup ready to go for whatever team picks him.

Tim Stephens (Proctorville, Ohio): Trevor Clifton is impressive. Do you see a bump in velocity as he fills out and, if so, can he be a mid-to-front-end starter?

John Manuel: Everyone’s waiting for that, and it’s still quite possible. Still early in his career, and he was quite raw. But so far, the Great Tennessee Prep Pitching Class of 2013 has not shaken out — Hayden Stone and Will Crowe have had Tommy John in college, Kyle Serrano has struggled and Dakota Hudson, while coming on, has not quite done it yet at Mississippi State, and he just got a new (albeit quite well regarded) pitching coach. That was a good year for pitching in the Volunteer State though; I’m still watching all those guys with great interest.

Tommy (Chicago): What are your thoughts on the Cubs pretty clear strategy to stockpile bats even if there are positional questions? Do you see any potential pitfalls with it? Schwarber, Happ, Dewees, McKinney, Zagunis and the list goes on.

John Manuel: Schwarbs worked out pretty well; McKinney was an extra piece in the Addison Russell deal, a smart pickup. Happ and Dewees were among the best players on the board when drafted, especially Happ. Zagunis has progressed nicely … I think those moves all have worked so far.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 04:20:20 pm
Any comments or scouting tools on De La Cruz? 

Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

Born: March 4, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 230. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012. Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion.

Background: Before he signed, de la Cruz was working out for teams as a 6-foot-4, 200-pound shortstop. When that didn’t work out, he shifted to the mound and signed with the Cubs for $85,000 as a 17-year-old in October 2012, but he was so raw he spent two years in the Dominican Summer League. He took a leap forward in 2015 by harnessing his delivery and emerging as the best prospect on a talented short-season Eugene staff.

Scouting Report: Physicality is de la Cruz’s calling card. Some club officials project he could be as tall as 6-foot-6 and could push 250 pounds when he finishes growing, and he has a fast arm. His fastball sits in the 92-93 mph range but bumps 97 regularly when his delivery is in sync and he’s getting extension out front. At his best, his fastball features above-average life, movement and angle to go with its velocity, making it a potential double-plus pitch. His curveball flashes plus and pushes 80-81 mph. He’s still learning to throw his changeup with proper arm speed. Competitiveness is an asset for de la Cruz, who has shown a mean streak on the mound.

The Future: Club officials try to rein in their enthusiasm with regard to de la Cruz, but they clearly have high hopes for him. He projects to start 2016 at low Class A South Bend, a level he could dominate with his strike-throwing ability and premium heater.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 04:32:34 pm
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-chat/ (http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-chat/)

John Manuel's Cubs prospects chat.  He seems to really like DelaCruz,
"Steele’s a solid athlete, making progress, Sands is more polished with less projection. I like both but they are both step-a-year guys. De la Cruz is the one who’s the potential stud."

"Cease and de la Cruz have the most upside; Underwood is closer to the big leagues but I think of him more as a potential No. 3 starter tops. Cease though is electric, and de la Cruz is a beast physically who has the potential to be really special."
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 04:35:14 pm
Thanks, reb, for DelaCruz report.  Being kind of the new and unfamiliar guy, that's the most interesting one to read. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 06, 2015, 04:49:12 pm
Zagunis: 3-3, 2 BB, SB

Johnson: 2/3 -2-4-4-3-1, 2 HR

Garner: 1-1/3 - 2-0-0-0-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_06_msswin_gddwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 06, 2015, 04:52:13 pm
Didn't Law just say Candelario's a bad fielder?


Quote
Teddy (Granville): Hey John, thanks for the chat. I got the chance to see Candelario take infield practice a few times this past season, and due to the footwork I don't think he'll be able to maintain the mobility to stay at third past his prime, what are your thoughts on this?

John Manuel: Scouts don’t agree with your assessment. I have words like “light on his feet” and “agile” in my notes, plus “outstanding defender” and “good instincts” in my reports from three different professionals in the scouting field. You may prove to be right, but those are my thoughts on this.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 04:57:27 pm
Torres:

Background: As an amateur, Torres trained in Venezuela with Ciro Barrios, who in 2012 had Franklin Barreto sign with the Blue Jays for $1.45 million. Torres wasn’t thought to be as advanced, but he got a $1.7 million bonus as the Cubs blew past MLB’s international bonus slots in 2013. He’s shown tremendous maturity since signing and has endeared himself to club officials. He’s particularly become attached to minor league infield coordinator Jose Flores, a Puerto Rico native who was a minor league shortstop in his own playing days in the early 1990s. He’s put many Cubs infielders, Torres included, through hundreds of hours of fundamental defensive drills and created a bond with many of the organization’s Latin American prospects from all over the region. Torres has learned quickly and thrived, finishing 2015 playing shortstop in the high Class A Carolina League playoffs as Myrtle Beach won the Mills Cup championship. He started the year as one of the youngest players in the low Class A Midwest League and earned the No. 1 prospect spot in the MWL.

Scouting Report: Torres has four above-average to plus tools, with only power lagging behind—but give him time. Torres had good strength when he signed and has improved his body significantly working with the Cubs’ strength and conditioning crew, with a trimmer shape. He combines those tools with a gamer’s mentality and a feel for the game on both sides of the ball. Torres’ bat-to-ball skills are only mitigated by youthful aggressiveness, and as he gains experience, he should learn which pitches to selectively zone in on and drive more consistently, giving him at least average future power potential. Some club officials give Torres plus future power, particularly to his pull side. He has a knack for the barrel, uses the entire field and has a solid approach, showing a good two-strike approach for his age. He’s become a much better baserunner who at times is too aggressive trying to steal but usually maximizes his above-average speed. Defensively, Torres shines with excellent instincts and footwork, giving him average range for shortstop that he pairs with a true plus arm that produces plenty of true throws with carry. Working with Flores, Torres has become efficient, consistent and a reliable defender also capable of the highlight-reel play. He carries himself with confidence and has natural leadership skills. He showed his age with a 29-for-139 (.209) finish as he wore down at the end of his first full season.

The Future: Cubs officials say Torres has an “it” factor that belies his age. He doesn’t have the loud tools of big league Chicago rookies such as Kris Bryant or Addison Russell, but he’s already exceeded the Cubs’ expectations. The only problem is where he eventually would fit in Chicago, as the Cubs have an infield glut already. That could make Torres trade bait, particularly if he starts 2016 with a strong first half back at Myrtle Beach. As a shortstop with offensive potential, he could prove to be the Cubs’ best trade chip.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 04:59:04 pm
Contreras:

Background: A signing snafu caused the Cubs to void Contreras’ original 2009 contract. As a result, he has been eligible for the Rule 5 draft every year since 2010, but the Cubs never lost him despite his athleticism and loud tools. Introduced to catching in 2012, he broke through at Double-A Tennessee in 2015, leading the Southern League in batting (.333) and ranking second in on-base percentage (.413).

Scouting Report: Significantly improved focus and sticking to an offensive approach helped Contreras translate his plus tools into performance in 2015. He stopped giving away at-bats by chasing pitchers’ pitches and gained confidence. He always has had natural hand-eye coordination and has grown into more strength, giving him gap power and above-average hitting ability. Formerly a plus runner, he has lost a step catching but still runs well enough to move to the outfield. Contreras toned down a hyper approach defensively, where his above-average arm used to get him in trouble, but he can still be mistake-prone, with inconsistent receiving and blocking skills that need more development. His English-language skills have improved significantly the last two years.

The Future: Because catcher Miguel Montero is signed through 2017, Contreras has a chance to add polish to his defense at Triple-A Iowa in 2016. He’s athletic enough to crack Chicago’s big league roster as a multi-positional reserve, perhaps as soon as 2016.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 04:59:49 pm
3. Ian Happ, of/2b

Born: Aug. 12, 1994. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Cincinnati, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Daniel Carte. Video

Background: Happ wasn’t highly recruited to Cincinnati but dominated college from Day One, earning first-team All-Freshman honors and raking for two summers in the Cape Cod League. He ranked inside the top 10 in NCAA Division I in on-base (.492) and slugging (.672) percentage in 2015, when the Cubs popped him ninth overall and signed him for $3 million on the recommendation of scout Daniel Carte, who dug deep in researching Happ’s makeup.

Scouting Report: Happ has strength, bat speed and a sound swing from both sides of the plate, to go with selectivity and controlled aggressiveness. His ferocious swing leads to some swing-and-miss, but he drives balls all over the field and has the above-average speed to leg out hits and challenge outfielders. Happ moved all over the field in college defensively, and the Cubs left him in the outfield in his debut. He focused solely on playing second base in instructional league and impressed club officials with his athleticism, making throws from all angles and improving his footwork. He has the arm strength to be an asset defensively there.

The Future: The Cubs say they will give Happ a long look at second base, but his bat may push him to the majors before his glove catches up. He may wind up a multi-positional utility player in the Ben Zobrist mold.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:00:34 pm
4. Duane Underwood, rhp

Born: July 20, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Marietta, Ga., 2012 (2nd round). Signed by: Keith Lockhart. Video

Background: Signed for $1.05 million, Underwood had a slow start to his pro career before gaining steam in 2014. He was off to an even stronger start in 2015 before missing a turn and then getting lit up in a June 26 start. His elbow soreness prompted a flight to Chicago to an MRI that came up clean, and Underwood rehabbed his way back from the inflammation into the high Class A Myrtle Beach rotation, making two playoff starts and showing his customary velocity.

Scouting Report: Among the Cubs’ full-season starters, Underwood has the firmest fastball, sitting in the 93-96 mph range, particularly early in games, before settling into the low 90s later. Its late life induces more early-count weak contact than empty cuts. Underwood still is learning to harness his ability to cut and sink the ball, and to set up hitters to better use his curveball and changeup. His curve has more swing-and-miss potential for some scouts, but most agree his changeup is more consistent and ahead of his breaking ball currently. Both have flashed plus but grade no better than average consistently, leading to a modest strikeout rate.

The Future: Consistency is the key to Underwood, who has improved his fitness and pro routine and now needs to bring it all together. A full, healthy season at Double-A Tennessee would put him on the cusp of Chicago as a potential No. 3 starter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:02:18 pm
5. Dylan Cease

Background: Georgia’s track record for prep pitchers becoming big leaguers is fairly poor over the last 25 years, but the Cubs’ top two pitching prospects are both Georgia preps. Cease starred at Milton High and was committed to Vanderbilt before injuring his elbow while throwing in the upper 90s in the cold March start of his senior-season schedule. He had Tommy John surgery after the Cubs drafted him and signed him for $1.5 million.

Scouting Report: Cease fired upper-90s heat in his pro debut. He’s the prototype little guy with a quick arm that produces electric stuff. For now, he mostly is a two-pitch pitcher, both of them plus. His fastball has life even when it sits in the 96-97 mph range and earns double-plus grades, coming out easy with some deception. His low-80s curveball has the power, shape and tilt to be a plus pitch as he learns to command it. Cease’s mechanics and arm action are both cleaner than they were in his amateur days, though he’s still learning to repeat them. His changeup is in its early stages but has shown average potential.

The Future: Cease has tremendous upside but has yet to throw more than three innings in a professional game, and his command of the strike zone is below-average. If he can spend most or all of 2016 at low Class A South Bend, then the Cubs will have a better read on his front-of-the-rotation potential.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:03:05 pm
6. Albert Almora, of

Born: April 16, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Hialeah Gardens, Fla., 2012 (1st round). Signed by: John Koronka/Laz Llanos. Video

Background: Almora played for six USA Baseball amateur teams from 2007-11 before the Cubs drafted him sixth overall in 2012, passing on the likes of Michael Wacha and Marcus Stroman while signing Almora for $3.9 million. He interrupted his season at Double-A Tennessee with another stint for Team USA, this time in the Pan American Games in Toronto, where he helped the Americans win a silver medal.

Scouting Report: In terms of tools, Almora is who he is—a contact-oriented hitter with strong forearms and wrists who has a knack for making contact and avoiding strikeouts. He has improved his selectivity but still doesn’t get to his raw power as consistently as scouts would like, and he’s an average runner who doesn’t walk or steal enough bases to be a leadoff hitter. His bat control and bat speed help him catch up to good velocity. He remains a special defender in center fielder with premium anticipation, instincts and ball-hawking ability, as well as a strong, accurate arm.

The Future: A grinder with great makeup who is regarded as an excellent teammate, Almora came on strong after his Team USA stint, hitting .302 after his return. He profiles as an everyday center fielder in the Aaron Rowand mold, and with Dexter Fowler a free agent, center field is actually a lineup spot that may be available in Chicago in the short-term.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:04:03 pm
7. McKinney

Background: It only seems like the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija to the Athletics for Addison Russell. They also acquired McKinney, the Oakland first-rounder in 2013, barely a year after he was drafted. He failed to finish either of his two full seasons healthy, with a sore shoulder limiting him to DH duty in 2014 and a broken right knee cap, the result of his own foul ball, sidelining him in August 2015.

Scouting Report: While it’s not the smoothest swing, thanks to a bit of an arm bar, McKinney has excellent hand-eye coordination and strike-zone judgment, giving him plus hitting ability. He has fringy power but likely not enough to be an impact bat, and he struggled against lefthanders at Double-A Tennessee in 2015, hitting .212 with two extra-base hits in 85 at-bats. He’s an average athlete and runner who can play all three outfield positions adequately, with a fringe-average arm that fits best in left field.

The Future: McKinney excels at the game’s most important skill—hitting. He’ll either have to revert to his past success against same-side pitchers or significantly improve his defense in center field to fit a first-division profile for the Cubs, who look set on the corners with Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber. A return to Tennessee seems likely.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:05:14 pm
8. de la Cruz (see above)

9. Jimenez

Background: The No. 1 international prospect on the 2013 board, Jimenez signed for $2.8 million, the largest bonus of any Latin American amateur that year. He made significant strides in the short-season Northwest League in 2015, playing every day, earning midseason all-star honors, ranking ninth in the league in batting (.284) and leading Eugene in home runs (seven) and RBIs (33).

Scouting Report: Jimenez has the most raw power of any Cubs minor leaguer, with long levers that help him produce light-tower power. He’ll always have some holes in his swing, but when he fully grows into his body and learns to fully incorporate his lower half, he could be a physical monster of the Jorge Soler model. He has the tools to fit the right-field profile, with average speed that allowed him to play center field in instructional league. But he has played more left field to this point. His defensive skills continue to evolve, though his throwing mechanics are inconsistent. Intelligent and mature, Jimenez has started to add more toughness.

The Future: The classic high-risk, high-reward teen, Jimenez will make his full-season debut as a 19-year-old at low Class A South Bend in 2016. He may need 2,000 at-bats in the minors to iron out his pitch recognition and plate discipline, but the Cubs have time to wait, and his bat could be special.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 05:06:01 pm
10. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

Born: Nov. 24, 1993. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 210. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010. Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion. Video

Background: Born in the U.S., Candelario grew up in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, and signed as a 16-year-old. He ranked in the organization’s Top 10 Prospects twice before reaching high Class A in 2014, where he experienced his first roadblock as a pro and didn’t handle failure well. He bounced back in 2015, reaching Double-A Tennessee and leading the organization with 35 doubles.

Scouting Report: Candelario is the Cubs’ best defensive infielder thanks to a plus arm, soft hands and smooth actions. His instincts and internal clock maximize his average range at third base, and he has the agility to handle slow rollers. He’s a switch-hitter whose swing and approach remain consistent from both sides of the plate, with the ability to use the whole field and hit for solid-average power. He covers the plate enough to make consistent contact and successfully became more aggressive this year, which paid off against advanced pitchers who are around the strike zone more often.

The Future: Blocked by Kris Bryant at third base, Candelario could still be an internal option if Bryant winds up moving to the outfield. A likely candidate to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, Candelario should return to Tennessee to start 2016 and profiles as a solid regular at third, if not a star.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 06, 2015, 10:02:19 pm
Thanks a ton for the reports, reb. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 06, 2015, 10:41:26 pm
Thanks, Reb.  We appreciate it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2015, 10:42:19 pm
Glad to do it. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on November 07, 2015, 08:43:32 am
Yes, Reb...thanks very much.  Great reading!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 07, 2015, 09:04:03 am
Thanks Reb.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 07, 2015, 09:46:10 am
1.  Really impressive to have had so many impact graduations, and to still have a system:
a.  that Manuel projects to still rank 7-12 range
b.  That still has possible impact guys like Cease, DelaCruz, and Jiminez sitting 5-8-9
c.  That still doesn't have room for a maybe-he-really-can-hit guy like EJ Martinez outside, or a possible impact-setup-releiver like Edwards outside the top 10. 

2.  I think Manuel's evals on short-season guys are more dependent on internal Cubs info than on external scouts.  Premium scouts aren't flocking to Northwest-league games, I don't think.  I think Cubs have earned respect, and Manuel probably trusts their honesty, but with our Fleita/Hendry history, I admit some curiosity about whether the Cubs sources who project future plus power for Torres, or talk about how impressive Happ looked at 2B, or who told Manuel about DelaCruz hitting 97 and ending up 6'6" 250, I wonder how Fleita-ish some of that may be? 

3.  Manuel's evals on defense for Cande and Happ are interesting, in part because we've just recently had Law negative on Candelario and Az Phil describing 2B Happ as "stiff".  Manuel's writeup was positive on Happ's 2B, and included a could of Zobrist analogies.  Playing several positions, maybe; playing them well, which is part of what makes Zobrist, color me doubtful. 

The DelaRosa stuff was really interesting, though. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 07, 2015, 09:57:49 am
Some of the thoughts on draft picks were interesting.
*Wilson's arm strength.
*His interest in Craig Brooks.  Heh, Brooks was a cool sample-size freak.  5.14 ERA, with 25K/4BB/0HR/14IP splits.  Kinda hard to give up 8 runs in 14 innings with 25K/4BB/0HR! 
*Submariner/sidearmers Berg and Morrison.  Will be interesting to see how those guys translate their non-standard delivery slow stuff up the ladder. 

Wilson will be curious guy to track.  I'd not recalled "strongest arm" talk.  If he's the fastest outfielder and the strongest-armed outfielder, and if he plays a natural instinctive CF, the defensive ceiling seems pretty high.  Will be interesting to see how much natural hitting and contact-skill he actually has.  References to his strength and power suggest we're not talking Theriot.  Will be interesting to see how much pure contact skill he has, and whether he can get enough hits to support a high average or not. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 07, 2015, 10:49:29 am
Did he say Wilson had the "strongest arm"?  I remember it as the "best arm", but I can not find the reference any more.  "Best arm" would take into account accuracy, as well as strength.

It would be nice to have a center fielder who had speed, great range, and a right fielder's arm.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 07, 2015, 05:17:40 pm
Manuel referenced Jake Stinnett in the chat.  Obviously, a big disappointment so far--as Manuel noted--and no clue what happened with him.

Watched Stinnett's last college start in CWS regionals against UVA and Nathan Kirby. Remember thinking that Stinnett looked like a guy who would be in big leagues inside a couple years.  Had a terrific mound presence and good stuff at the time.

Think some of these late bloomers are just a tease.  Stinnett wasn't that much of a prospect until returned for his senior season and had massive improvement.  Maybe kind of like what Tim Wilken saw in Hayden Simpson last several starts of Simpson's last season.  Not much of a track record before that.  Just a tease.

Guess this is why scouts and evaluators tend to like guys they've been following since age 16 or whatever.  Slow and steady over Mad Love?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on November 07, 2015, 09:20:40 pm
Candelario just stroked an RBI double to the wall in CF...92 FB at the knees...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 08, 2015, 11:46:34 pm
According to AZ Phil, Felix Pena, Carlos Pimentel, and others are now 6-year minor league free agents. Contreras has agreed to a successor contract and obviously will be added to the 40 by the Nov 20 roster deadline.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/11082015/19-cubs-minor-leaguers-declared-mlb-rule-55-free-agents#more
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 09, 2015, 05:59:51 pm
According to BA, Felix Pena has re-signed to a minor league contract with Cubs.  Will be Rule 5 eligible--unless rostered by the 11/20 deadline. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 09, 2015, 06:27:26 pm
@CblackCHC: “I’ve had a rough time adjusting to the bullpen but you learn stuff everyday and do your best to incorporate what you’ve learned. #determined”
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 09, 2015, 06:51:29 pm
Was a reason even given as to why Black was turned into a reliever?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2015, 07:13:23 pm
Lack of control/command and a big fastball.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 09, 2015, 09:40:45 pm
The Cubs actually said those are the reasons? How does making a guy with control/command issues and putting him in a situation where he will probably throw harder help that issue?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2015, 09:45:12 pm
Did the Cubs come out and say, I doubt it. It makes the command/control issues less important in short bursts.  He still has to improve from where he is at to get a chance to be effective.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 09, 2015, 09:45:21 pm
The Cubs actually said those are the reasons? How does making a guy with control/command issues and putting him in a situation where he will probably throw harder help that issue?

Though it may do nothing to help with "that issue," using him in relief would reduce the harm the control/command problems would likely cause.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 09, 2015, 10:36:36 pm
The Cubs actually said those are the reasons? How does making a guy with control/command issues and putting him in a situation where he will probably throw harder help that issue?

Moving from starter to reliever or from reliever to starter occasionally has worked in the past for some pitchers.  Dempster, for one.  In Black's case, I assume that they hoped that the increase in velocity might compensate for the lack of command.

Hopefully, they move him back to the rotation as a final chance to utilize his substantial talents.

If nothing else, it is a good reminder to us fans that throwing a 98 MPH fastball, as Black and Cease do, doesn't always guarantee a good career.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 09, 2015, 11:07:37 pm
I don't think it matters.  The guy is wildly wild.  Has been, hasn't gotten any better, has gotten progressively wilder if anything.  Black, he's so wild that even in relief where he only needs to throw 2 pitches, he still can't throw strikes.  Moving him back to rotation won't fix that. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 09, 2015, 11:12:53 pm
Think he had some relative success as a starter, been a disaster in relief. He has nasty stuff; rather put him in best position than give up on him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 10, 2015, 12:14:45 am
Candealrio: 3-5, HR, RBI, K

Zagunis: 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_09_msswin_gddwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 10, 2015, 10:27:46 am
Dempster was fairly wild as a starter.  Was less wild, and certainly more effective as a reliever.  Lee Smith failed miserably as a starter in the minors, but had a little success as a reliever.

There are quite a number of pitchers who have improved production when moved from the rotation to the pen.  Not all.  Not most.  But at least enough to make it worth while to try it, but certainly not enough to count on it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 10, 2015, 11:36:37 am
Can you imagine wild guys like Grimm or Strop pitching rotation?  Yikes.  But in rotation, wild as they are, they have still been very effective. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 10, 2015, 11:41:50 am
The problem with those guys is that they are already at 100 pitches in the third inning.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 10, 2015, 12:53:48 pm
Also that their fastball is a couple of ticks higher when they are only going to pitch one inning.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 10, 2015, 04:36:16 pm
Candelario: 1-4, HR, RBI

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_10_msswin_surwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on November 10, 2015, 05:38:44 pm
Jeimer is having a really, really nice fall...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 10, 2015, 06:06:08 pm
Candelario with HR's is a totally different type of prospect. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 10, 2015, 09:37:35 pm
11 of his 20 hits are for extra bases.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 10, 2015, 10:44:41 pm
He's been a fairly decent walk-taker in the minors.  He's not taking many walks this AFL (2?).  May be that swinging away and not being patient is working well for him now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 11, 2015, 05:03:35 pm
Candelario: 1-3, BB

Zastryzny: 4-3-2-2-1-4

Black: 1-1-1-1-1-1

Garner: 1-1-1-1-0-1

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_11_surwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 11, 2015, 05:19:23 pm
He's been a fairly decent walk-taker in the minors.  He's not taking many walks this AFL (2?).  May be that swinging away and not being patient is working well for him now.

This year in AA his walk rate was roughly 12%; in A+ this year, in close to twice as many PA, it was roughly 5.8%.  For his minor league career (2200 PA) his walk rate has been roughly 10.2%.   His overall K rate in the minors has only been 16%.

His walk rate in fall ball so far is about 5%, but since we are only talking about 41 PA so far, if he walks his next two times up, he is pretty much back on pace to match what he has done in the minors overall.

His HR rate in that 41 AB small sample size (which may be no more meaningful than the post season power surge from Murphy of the Mets this year) is now roughly one in every 8 AB.  If he only did HALF that well in the majors, that would work to 40 HR in a 640 AB season.  Though that kind of power is likely far more than even he dreams of, he has had 35% of his career minor league hits go for extra bases, and is only 21.  There certainly is both room and reason to think he might offer some legitimate power at the major league level.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 11, 2015, 09:37:36 pm
When backed and watched Black pitch. He hung a slider for a single to start the inning. Control was all over the place. He looked pretty decent for the next 3 batters. Next 2 guys made outs. He had a nice curve. Then the third batter had a seeing eye single to plate a run. He hung another slider for a HR and walked Profar on a full count with 2 50 foot breaking balls. After a mound visit he retired Austin Meadows on 2 pitches. I wonder if maybe pitching out of the stretch might help him full time. He has a lot of moving pieces in his delivery with a lot of effort. You can see the potential, but he's a mess right now.

Canadalario jumped on a first pitch for a double to center.  Second AB he took a couple of balls and then popped out to 2B.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 12, 2015, 05:13:34 pm
Zagunis: 1-3, BB, K

Candelario: 1-3, BB, K

Johnson: 5-5-0-0-1-4

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_12_msswin_perwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on November 12, 2015, 08:03:08 pm
Nice to see Pierce Johnson have a very good AFL outing...finally!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 13, 2015, 10:18:40 pm
Zagunis: 0-4, K

Candelario: 1-4, 2B

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_13_msswin_scowin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 14, 2015, 04:24:57 pm
This is ArizonaPhil's opinion of the Cubs match for the prospects SD received for Kimbral.

Submitted by Arizona Phil  on Fri, 11/13/2015 - 7:08pm  Permalink
A comparable package from the Cubs would have been Gleyber Torres, Albert Almora Jr, Jeimer Candelario, and Justin Steele... something like that. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2015, 05:08:14 pm
Don't think Asuaje is a comp for Candelario, which is one of Phil's explanations. Otherwise, think other 3 are a fair comp.

Better comp for Asuaje is probably Villanueva, at least aside from his out of options status. Candelario now a top 10 Cubs prospect.

Guess that Kimbrel fetched so much because no real comps for him out there and available--Chapman is pending FA, so very different. If the GM values top-end closer, Kimbrel becomes special to the GM. Doubt that Cherington would have made this deal.

This trade also shows how much Braves had to sacrifice in talent coming back a year ago when moved BJ Upton-- and his bad contract-- with Kimbrel.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 14, 2015, 05:08:21 pm
Candelario: 2-4, 2B

Garner: 1-0-0-0-1-0

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_14_scowin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 14, 2015, 06:40:42 pm
This is ArizonaPhil's opinion of the Cubs match for the prospects SD received for Kimbral.

Submitted by Arizona Phil  on Fri, 11/13/2015 - 7:08pm  Permalink
A comparable package from the Cubs would have been Gleyber Torres, Albert Almora Jr, Jeimer Candelario, and Justin Steele... something like that.

That would seem to be be vastly overpaying for a relief pitcher who already has a salary pretty much at market value.  When yyu are trading for a player whose contract truly pays him he full market value, anything you give that team having value beyond what they are being paid (which is to say any serious prospect) is pretty much a gift.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 14, 2015, 07:30:39 pm
Which is why many reporters and bloggers feel that the Sox screwed themselves with the deal.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 17, 2015, 04:45:13 pm
Candelario: 1-4, RBI, K

Zagunis: 0-3, K

Zastryzny: 3-3-3-3-1-3

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_17_msswin_srrwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 18, 2015, 07:38:35 pm
Candelario: 1-3, RBI, 2 BB

Johnson: 4-4-1-1-1-6

Garner: 1-2/3 -0-0-0-2-2

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_18_srrwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on November 18, 2015, 08:54:11 pm
 Very glad to see Pierce Johnson wind up AFL with two solid starts...and to see Candalario keep himself in conversations as among the top performers this AFL!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 19, 2015, 06:49:58 am
Heh heh, Andury Acevado had a breakout season.  He'd been >8BB/9IP his earlier two seasons; this year that settled to 3.2 BB/9. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 19, 2015, 08:02:42 am
Sounds like Corey Black, with one final year of better control.  Everything to win and very little to lose.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 19, 2015, 04:28:46 pm
Master Pau: Does Eddy Martinez have star potential my friends think he is going to be a bust given he only signed for 3 million. Saying if he was a better prospect he would go for 10+ Million
Klaw: Something weird happened behind the scenes; I thought he had a $10 million deal with a specific club, yet it never came to fruition. He’s a potential star for me.

Archie: I know he’s still a few years away, but what do you think the Cubs do with Gleyber Torres? Trade bait?
Klaw: Two years out from that point, I think. Potential superstar whom I’d be loath to trade now for fear that I’d be selling too low, because he’s more potential than anything at this point. He’s wildly advanced for his age.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 19, 2015, 04:37:21 pm
Reading the stuff on Martinez makes me feel Almora's in trouble and we only need a one year guy in CF.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 19, 2015, 04:40:01 pm
Candelario: 0-4

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_11_19_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on November 19, 2015, 05:10:07 pm
Archie: I know he’s still a few years away, but what do you think the Cubs do with Gleyber Torres? Trade bait?
Klaw: Two years out from that point, I think. Potential superstar whom I’d be loath to trade now for fear that I’d be selling too low, because he’s more potential than anything at this point. He’s wildly advanced for his age.

This is one of the rare occasions where I fully agree with Keith Law. Eighteen-year-old kids who play well enough to earn #1 top prospect honors in a 16-team full season Class A league should never be traded.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 19, 2015, 05:15:20 pm
Yes, and was 18 the entire season. Heck, Torres is STILL 18 (for a few more weeks).

He might get a peek at AA late next season. At 19.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 19, 2015, 05:34:27 pm
Yes, and was 18 the entire season. Heck, Torres is STILL 18 (for a few more weeks).

He might get a peek at AA late next season. At 19.

Russell could easily make an All-Star team next year and have Torres push him out by the end of 2017.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 19, 2015, 05:36:22 pm
Reading the stuff on Martinez makes me feel Almora's in trouble and we only need a one year guy in CF.

Even without Martinez, we should only need a one year guy in CF (and I think we already have him).

And if Martinez is good enough a couple of years from now to cause the Cubs to shop Almora after one year in the majors to hopefully prove real value, so be it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on November 19, 2015, 05:42:16 pm
This is one of the rare occasions where I fully agree with Keith Law. Eighteen-year-old kids who play well enough to earn #1 top prospect honors in a 16-team full season Class A league should never be traded.


And then there's Bryce Harper who had 597 PAs in the MAJORS at age 19---and didn't turn 20 until after the season was over.

Prodigies.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on November 19, 2015, 06:04:35 pm
And then you have guys like Baez, whose failure in the majors at 21 is a sure sign they're busts.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on November 19, 2015, 06:57:56 pm
Well.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on November 19, 2015, 10:23:37 pm
I don't understand the last two posts. Would someone care to enlighten me please?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 19, 2015, 10:29:27 pm
It was news of a big trade that we knew would upset you.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on November 19, 2015, 10:30:09 pm
Something was posted that came off poorly and was deleted.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on November 19, 2015, 10:39:35 pm
I think you should tell us by who, so innocent parties aren's suspected.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on November 19, 2015, 10:59:19 pm
DaveP talking some political bullshit about Isis and Obama.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on November 19, 2015, 11:07:01 pm
DaveP talking some political bullshit about Isis and Obama.

Thanks, Dusty.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 21, 2015, 04:27:55 pm
Mesa's AFL season is over. The final stats:

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&sid=l119&cid=555
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on November 22, 2015, 06:50:57 am
Thanks Chris.  Fabulous AFL for Candelario!  Solid for Contreras until getting injured.  Zagunis had his usual, great OBP. 

Johnson and Zastryzny were disappointing, but better toward the end.  Glad Brockemeyer got the exposure...Cubs' brass likes him, too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on November 22, 2015, 11:12:30 am
I think Candelario is one solid full-season away from being considered a serious prospect. If he's in the neighborhood of 800 OPS this year I think he edges into the top 100.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on November 22, 2015, 12:43:58 pm
Candelario certainly made a comeback after just about falling off the prospect charts.  A year ago, it looked as if he had little chance of fulfilling the promise he showed as a teen ager.  Now, he is once again being taken seriously.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 24, 2015, 09:26:18 am
Badler in his story on Cubans said the Cubs are favorites to sign Adrian Morejon a 16 year old lefty.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/cuban-notes-reds-cubs-favorites-two-players-gutierrez-heredia-ruiz/

Jesse Sanchez on him

Adrian Morejon, 16, LHP
Morejon is the real deal. The left-handed teenager has shined in international competitions, and his fastball hovers in the 91-93 mph range. Morejon has four pitches, plus command and plus makeup. He's an international star and one scout said he might be the best young arm overall in 2016, and that includes the international market and the 2016 Draft. Morejon is working on his documents and has not been declared a free agent.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on November 24, 2015, 10:02:37 am
Sounds good to me!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on November 24, 2015, 05:17:13 pm
Quote
Despite his youth, Morejon had been on the radar in Cuba for several years, as he pitched for Cuba in the 12U World Championship in Taiwan back in 2011. More recently, major league teams had the opportunity to scout Morejon last year in September at the 15U World Cup. With Morejon on the mound in the gold-medal game, Cuba beat the United States 6-3, with Morejon striking out 12 with one walk and seven hits allowed in a 124-pitch complete game. At 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, Morejon ran his fastball up to 91 mph, sitting mostly in the mid-to-high 80s during that tournament. He showed feel to spin a good curveball with advanced feel for pitching for a 15-year-old lefty.

Before the tournament, Morejon had pitched for Mayabeque in Cuba’s national 15U league, where he was by far the league leader in strikeouts with 113 in 68 innings, along with a 1.93 ERA (fifth in the league), 40 walks and 39 hits allowed.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/adrian-morejon-mvp-15u-world-cup-leaves-cuba/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on November 25, 2015, 11:14:05 am
Jesse Rogers ‏@ESPNChiCubs  5m5 minutes ago
MLB announces 50 game suspension of Cubs 2014, 12th rd pick Tanner Griggs for testing positive for Amphetamine
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on November 25, 2015, 11:28:15 am
Jesse Rogers ‏@ESPNChiCubs  5m5 minutes ago
MLB announces 50 game suspension of Cubs 2014, 12th rd pick Tanner Griggs for testing positive for Amphetamine

He had a 12.91 ERA for Eugene.  The kid needed to up the dosage.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2015, 02:23:33 pm
Phil Rogers ‏@philgrogers  23h23 hours ago
Cuban RH Armando Rivero is having a strong winter for #Cubs in VZ. 17 Ks/2 BBs in 13 1/3 IP. Held AAA hitters to .216 BA in 48 Gs in '15.

The K/BB numbers seem to be a nice surprise.  It would be neat if he figured something out.

Nick J. Faleris ‏@NickJFaleris  21h21 hours ago
Ian Happ is probably a better baseball player than you think he is. Not YOU, of course. I know you got aboard the Happ train early, right?

Former BP guy, who left with a lot of the BP writers to start up a new company.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on November 30, 2015, 03:02:11 pm
Thanks, Blue.  Entering last season I expected Rivero to be a serious roster or yo-yo candidate.  He had a very disappointing year.  the 17/2/13 K-rate isn't surprising; it's the 2 walks in 13-innings that's out of line with Iowa (37 walks/57 innings). 

Would be nice if he and Edwards could both provide good callup appeal. 

Is there a place where all of the Cubs winter-league stuff is accumulated?

milb stats used to have them, but that doesn't appear true this month. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2015, 03:10:08 pm
His K's were down last year at Iowa and the walks jumped.  It's nice to see him being a > K/inning guy again.  Hopefully it means something and it isn't just facing a bunch of bad hitters.

No clue on the stats, those came from Rogers via Bleacher Nation.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 01, 2015, 09:53:50 am
http://www.cubsrelated.com/2015/11/cubs-saturate-another-top-100-prospect.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/

The actual prospect list is interesting.  The article about what factors statistically are most important in projecting minor league players is also interesting.  It's just a scouting-free data thing, FWIW.  I believe it is basically an offense-oriented calculation, so Almora and Torres (and contreras) aren't getting credit for defense, nor McKinney points off. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 01, 2015, 04:13:35 pm
Quote
I refuse to look, but there's a guy on PSD that says the Cubs must of signed Brailyn Marquez, he's in a Cubs uniform on Facebook. As are 2 IF, Christopher Morel and Orian Nunez. I've got no idea who those 2 are, but Marquez is the best lefty in the class(Cubans aside) and we had been rumored to have an agreement with him.



Quote
I googled Christopher Morel there was an article in Spanish saying he signed with the Cubs for 800k , is a infielder and his dad played basketball.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 01, 2015, 04:28:55 pm
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.pachaproduccion.com/2015/08/confirmado-firman-joven-prospecto.html&prev=search

Christopher Morel is a poorly translated article.  He appears to be a SS. 

Marquez was announced on July 2nd.

Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Dominican: Best LHP in a weak class.  Average across the board (FB, CB, CH) tops out at 92 with a projectable frame.  Another higher risk but higher upside type arm

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 01, 2015, 06:28:24 pm
Marquis was announced in July but his signing was never verified by any official source that I noticed.  Was it ever announced by the Cubs?  I know that there were some names on the July list that eventually signed elsewhere.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 01, 2015, 10:11:17 pm
Dave matches my recall, that Marquis was projected/guessed to sign with the Cubs.  But he was never announced as having actually done so.  A projectable 6'3" lefty who throws in the 90's is interesting, so I'm glad he signed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 02, 2015, 10:39:15 am
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2015/12/report-cubs-hire-andy-haines-as-minor-league-hitting-coordinator.php

Haines was the AAA manager for the Marlins.  The Cubs seem to hire a fair number of guys from them.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 02, 2015, 10:42:49 am
What happened to the last hitting coordinator?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 02, 2015, 10:58:02 am
He became a hitting coach for the Rangers I think.  I believe Iapoche (sp) was a former Marlins coach as well.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 10, 2015, 02:11:16 pm
Cubs lose Michael Heesch, Pin-Cheih Chen, Aviel Ovando, and Julian Aybar in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on December 10, 2015, 06:07:58 pm
Cubs lose Michael Heesch, Pin-Cheih Chen, Aviel Ovando, and Julian Aybar in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft.

Aren't these guys who are only actually lost if they are kept on the drafting team's major league roster for the entire year?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on December 10, 2015, 06:16:08 pm
No, the opposite.  They're gone with no conditions.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 10, 2015, 06:26:07 pm
They must be put on the drafting team's reserve list (in Heesch's case, a AAA reserve list) but need not even be left there for any length of time.  But that isn't really important, since the minor league reserve lists don't matter much until next year's draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on December 10, 2015, 09:27:02 pm
Okay, then let me ask the more important question, aren't all of those guys so insignificant they won't be missed by anyone?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 10, 2015, 10:24:10 pm
Generally, although every once in a while, someone does well enough to be of a little help at the MLB level.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on December 10, 2015, 11:11:09 pm
Justin Bour, for example...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on December 10, 2015, 11:30:10 pm
Justin Bour was a guy who I was familiar with and actually thought might have a chance to provide some value, perhaps not a great chance, but a chance.  I can't recall ever hearing of any of the guys drafted today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 11, 2015, 10:21:43 am
Boer is a good example, but he was lost in the MLB portion of the draft.  These guys weren't even considered good enough to put them on the Iowa roster.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 11, 2015, 10:27:02 am
Boer was a minor league Rule 5 pick.  Roosevelt Brown was another.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on December 11, 2015, 10:44:58 am
Bour was definitely lost in the minor league phase.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on December 11, 2015, 10:48:42 am
Roosevelt Brown put up some of the best hitting numbers I have ever seen from an Iowa Cub. He could flat out rake.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on December 11, 2015, 10:52:51 am
And trim.  And edge.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on December 11, 2015, 11:34:57 am
THE CUBS HAVE SIGNED STEPHEN FIFE TO A MINOR LEAGUE DEAL!!!!!

Who is Stephen Fife?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on December 11, 2015, 11:36:55 am
Barney's grandson.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 11, 2015, 11:53:26 am
Who is Stephen Fife?

Former Red Sox, duh..

He pitched out of the pen for Dodgers and is coming off TJS.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on December 11, 2015, 11:54:44 am
Thanks, CBJ.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 12, 2015, 04:58:48 pm
The message-board fun discussing Inciarte on other thread speaks to the potential value that Almora could have, if he works out. 

Obviously we've got our doubts about whether Almora can ever hit to the modest Inciarte level, for good reason.  And obviously as favorably as scouts are about Almora defensively, we're not sure that relative to the high-standard of big-league CFers that he'll really be as good as Inciarte, or nearly as good as Heyward. 

But I think there's a reasonable enough chance that Almora will hit somewhat like Inciarte, and perhaps better. 

Could be fascinating to see how Soler and Almora look a year from now.  Might be shocked that we even considered Soler-for-Inciarte; or perhaps equally shocked that any of us ever imagined that Almora could become a factor at all. 

I'd like to keep them both.  Perhaps a year out, Dave's hypothetical "what if you had both Soler and Inciarte, who would actually play more...." will equivalently become reality with Soler/Almora. 

Almora could develop into a kind of nice 4th OFer behind the existing cast.  Schwarber's LH, so Almora could play some LF when Schwarber sits against tough lefties or when he catches.  Heyward has had his problems versus lefties; perhaps Almora could spell him periodically as well.  Almora could be a late-game defensive switch for either Soler or Schwarber, or perhaps a variable-frequency replacement guy for Soler. 

Having him work out as a solid 4th OFer could be really helpful.  Hope it works for him.  His second-half numbers sure looked promising; hope they're not just a small-sample fluke.  (Which is very possible.) 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 12, 2015, 05:09:04 pm
The message-board fun discussing Inciarte on other thread speaks to the potential value that Almora could have, if he works out. 

Obviously we've got our doubts about whether Almora can ever hit to the modest Inciarte level, for good reason.  And obviously as favorably as scouts are about Almora defensively, we're not sure that relative to the high-standard of big-league CFers that he'll really be as good as Inciarte, or nearly as good as Heyward. 

But I think there's a reasonable enough chance that Almora will hit somewhat like Inciarte, and perhaps better. 

Could be fascinating to see how Soler and Almora look a year from now.  Might be shocked that we even considered Soler-for-Inciarte; or perhaps equally shocked that any of us ever imagined that Almora could become a factor at all. 

I'd like to keep them both.  Perhaps a year out, Dave's hypothetical "what if you had both Soler and Inciarte, who would actually play more...." will equivalently become reality with Soler/Almora. 

Almora could develop into a kind of nice 4th OFer behind the existing cast.  Schwarber's LH, so Almora could play some LF when Schwarber sits against tough lefties or when he catches.  Heyward has had his problems versus lefties; perhaps Almora could spell him periodically as well.  Almora could be a late-game defensive switch for either Soler or Schwarber, or perhaps a variable-frequency replacement guy for Soler. 

Having him work out as a solid 4th OFer could be really helpful.  Hope it works for him.  His second-half numbers sure looked promising; hope they're not just a small-sample fluke.  (Which is very possible.) 

Soler could go any which way in his career.  This is why I keep bringing up Cubs internal assessment of Soler, of which we have no real clue--other than seems brass go out of there way more to praise Baez than they do Soler.  My impression.  Guessing there is a lot of internal Cubs debate about Soler, with smart folks on both sides.

Trust they will do the prudent thing on whether move Soler or not.  They could be terribly wrong either way.  A bit scary to move him for a contact/defensive player when Soler could turn out to be a masher for years. I get that.

On other hand, Inciarte coming off really good season.  Yes, possibly a career year. We'll see.  As to Almora, Inciarte/Almora might be a really good platoon if either or both struggle against platoon sides--with one an outstanding fourth OFer.  Could be terrific tandem. Of course, not thrilled to trade Soler for a fourth OFer, so all boils down to Soler projection. 

In the end, think if Soler traded it's for pitching.  CF can be filled in other ways--as much as I like Inciarte.  If Soler traded, Heyword is the RFer.  Think that's how discussion started.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 12, 2015, 06:39:50 pm
Just for fun. Here is Inciarte's wRC+ in the minors
2009- 18
Rookie 105
2010- 19
A- 80
A 69
2011- 20
A 94
2012- 21
A 124
A+ 111
2013- 22
AA 101
2014- 23
AAA 109

Almora
2012- 18 
Rookie 119
A- 106
2013- 19
Rookie 124
A 137
2014- 20
A+ 100
AA 64
2015- 21
AA 105

Almora's lowest ISO so far has been in 2014 at AA. Inciarte topped that 2 times (264 PA and 120 PA). He was below .100 at 4 levels, including the only 2 times he had greater than 500 PA.



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 12, 2015, 08:21:26 pm
Blue, those are helpful, and clearly Almora's been the better minor-league hitter.  So certainly he has a chance to be as good, and perhaps better with more power, than Inciarte. 

Not sure how valuable that is, though; the weird thing with Inciarte is that this year's big-league stats are pretty much better than he ever was in the minors.  How rare is that?  Very uncommon for a guy to do as well or better in majors than in minors.  There are a ton of guys whose minor-league stats could compare favorably to Inciarte's; but very few of those guys are able to carry those over to the majors.  Inciarte appears to be something of a development fluke. 

Hopefully Almora will be another, who hits much better in majors than in minors.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 12, 2015, 08:36:39 pm
Soler could go any which way in his career.  This is why I keep bringing up Cubs internal assessment of Soler, of which we have no real clue--other than seems brass go out of there way more to praise Baez than they do Soler.  ....

Trust they will do the prudent thing on whether move Soler or not.  They could be terribly wrong either way.  .....

Agree.  Internal assessment now underlies the decisions made this winter.  But your point is also well taken; no matter how smart they might be, they might have no ability to forecast the future with a player like that.  They might have a very different internal assessment a year from now compared to what it is today. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 12, 2015, 10:16:49 pm
Not sure how valuable that is, though; the weird thing with Inciarte is that this year's big-league stats are pretty much better than he ever was in the minors.  How rare is that?  Very uncommon for a guy to do as well or better in majors than in minors.  There are a ton of guys whose minor-league stats could compare favorably to Inciarte's; but very few of those guys are able to carry those over to the majors.  Inciarte appears to be something of a development fluke. 

Hopefully Almora will be another, who hits much better in majors than in minors.   

His first year Inciarte had a wRC+ of 87 and ISO of .081.  Last year he was wRC+ of 100 and an ISO of .105.  Chances are decent that last year is going to be his best offensive year. I think it will be interesting for Inciarte as he moves from a hitters park to a pitchers park as to what his offense does.  FWIW ZIPS is projecting to be around .700 OPS for the next 3 years in Atlanta and be below 3 WAR each year.  Steamer is less optimistic for him, but I don't know if the reran it in Atlanta vs Arizona.

Almora isn't going to K.  He might never walk much, but if he can be more selective in the pitches he hits I think he can out hit Inciarte by a lot.  If he doesn't I think there is a decent chance that he can be just about Inciarte on offense.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 12, 2015, 10:49:49 pm
Don 't know what future holds for Inciarte but much of the above numbers was foundation of the argument that he would be fringy in 2015. How did that work out?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 12, 2015, 10:50:20 pm
Posting a .700-OPS in the major leagues isn't that easy, and there are lots of guys unable to do that.  Inciarte maybe can, iffy, but good chance he's borderline. 

Wouldn't shock if Almora can, and can do somewhat better.  Might he be Castro-esque?  (Castro is career .725.)  Possible. 

But also certainly possible that he won't be able to support a .700-OPS, and might be more Darwin Barney?  That's possible too.  Time will tell. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on December 15, 2015, 05:42:03 am
Cubs have five players on MLB.com's top 100 list.

Torres: 29
McKinney: 34
Edwards: 57
Underwood: 67
Almora: 89

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=prospects



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 07:05:38 am
Wow.  Crazy that Edwards is still up that high.  And McKinney. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on December 15, 2015, 07:30:56 am
No Contreras.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on December 15, 2015, 07:32:06 am
Seems like a very odd list, particularly McKinnney being so high and Contreras being absent.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on December 15, 2015, 07:35:52 am
Seems like a very odd list, particularly McKinnney being so high and Contreras being absent.

Isn't calling it "odd" more than a mere understatement?

Doesn't the fact that Contreras is not on it at all give pause to whether the list has any meaningful value?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on December 15, 2015, 08:06:59 am
Au Contreras.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on December 15, 2015, 08:30:51 am
Quite a few inclusions and exclusions on that list give me pause.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on December 15, 2015, 08:34:36 am
They haven't moved Contreras up on the Cubs list from #10 so perhaps it's to be updated again before the next season.

 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on December 15, 2015, 08:56:09 am
Indeed, that list is utterly bizarre.  Impossible to take it seriously.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 15, 2015, 10:08:43 am
Isn't calling it "odd" more than a mere understatement?

Doesn't the fact that Contreras is not on it at all give pause to whether the list has any meaningful value?

Depends upon other lists.  If he is left out on only this one, I would expect that it was merely a n outlier.  If he is left out on all of them, it would make me concerned that they knew more than we do about something.  But it just might mean that they are concerned about it being just an outlier career year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on December 15, 2015, 10:10:52 am
Is it possible that list was put together at the end of the season and before AFL?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on December 15, 2015, 10:15:28 am
Read the write up on Contreras...it was definitely written during the season...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on December 15, 2015, 10:40:06 am
Quick, trade all of them but Torres to Dave Stewart for Pollock.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 12:23:45 pm
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=chc

Winter League stats, all Cubs players in one place.  It says "As of 12/15/2015", so perhaps it's keeping everything up to date, but I'm not sure I believe it. 

Another link, which does day-by-day stats.  http://mlbfarm.com/index.php?team=CHC  (If you go back day-by-day, Friday was the last day when they have any action by Baez.) 

According to these sixte, Baez has played only 5 games thus far, and is hitting .125. 

Alcantara's up to .250. 

Villanueva has 9 HR.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 12:51:38 pm
That MLB.com top 100 has been unchanged for months (other han reflecting a new club when traded). They will be revising in January. Ditto for each club top 30 (changed only for trades when somebody added at end of list so stays at 30). So, posting their top 100 here now is pointless and stale--same list as last summer.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on December 15, 2015, 01:29:41 pm
Looks like Baez has a BABIP of under .100.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on December 15, 2015, 01:37:10 pm
Villanueva with an OPB of .444 and an OPS of .972 in 184 ABs.  Awesome.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on December 15, 2015, 01:38:39 pm
He could be a fine bench option.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on December 15, 2015, 01:38:45 pm
Trade him...he has no position with our big club
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 15, 2015, 02:01:35 pm
15.8% K rate, 15.8% BB% rate for Baez as well.  It is only 19 PA, so it might just be some bad luck.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 02:04:24 pm
Heh heh, 5 games for Baez, doesn't prove much either way.  Would be fun to have him driving the ball and hitting .500 with HR's, but whatever. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 15, 2015, 02:07:48 pm
I don't think he has much trade value at this time, but if he does, we should certainly trade him.

However, if Baez is able to make the team, he would be sufficient protection at shortstop that we wouldn't need the guy we are getting as PTBNL from the Yankees, and Villanueva could make the roster as a reserve third/first baseman.

The Cubs are developing amazing roster versatility.  Baez can play every infield position, and perhaps even every outfield position.  Zobrist can play outfield or second base.  Bryant third base or outfield.  Schwarber outfield or catcher.  Maddon should be in heaven next year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 02:25:18 pm
Yeah, the Ryan acquisition is curious. Could mean nothing with only $1 guarantee but have to wonder if Ryan is fallback option as back-up SS in case Baez is traded. Theo always thinking ahead.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 02:37:11 pm
Is Ryan a guaranteed contract?  Or the kind of deal where if we cut him before the season we're off the hook for most of it?  I'd just assumed that taking $1M was something to help make the Yankees agree....

Is Brothers the kind of deal where if we cut him, we're off the hook?  Or, if we try to option him, he can opt out but doing so will cost him his salary? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on December 15, 2015, 02:40:56 pm
http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/around-baseball-321/msg256112/#msg256112
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 03:07:41 pm
According to AZ Phil, Brothers has right to elect free agency if outrighted (would have to pass thru revocable waivers to be outrighted).

Brothers is on a 1-year deal, so can be released with Cubs only on hook for termination pay (amount depending when in spring training released). So, unlike Ryan, Brothers not guaranteed full contract salary. Believe that Ryan guaranteed full salary---player option exercised by Ryan at end of 2015 season as part of multi-year deal with Yankees that Cubs inherited.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 15, 2015, 03:22:47 pm
Yeah, the Ryan acquisition is curious. Could mean nothing with only $1 guarantee but have to wonder if Ryan is fallback option as back-up SS in case Baez is traded. Theo always thinking ahead.

He is also a fallback option in case Baez does very poorly in winter ball and spring training.  The Cubs might want him to go back to Iowa to work on his hitting.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 04:43:43 pm
According to AZ Phil, Brothers has right to elect free agency if outrighted (would have to pass thru revocable waivers to be outrighted).

Brothers is on a 1-year deal, so can be released with Cubs only on hook for termination pay (amount depending when in spring training released). So, unlike Ryan, Brothers not guaranteed full contract salary. Believe that Ryan guaranteed full salary---player option exercised by Ryan at end of 2015 season as part of multi-year deal with Yankees that Cubs inherited.

Brothers is interesting because he's talented so I'd like to keep him.  But I totally don't want to plan him onto roster, given he's so wild and probably untrustworthy.  But it would be interesting to send him down, and implement perhaps some arm-slot adjustments or whatever that the Cubs analysis diagnoses.  Give him some some time at Iowa and see if he can sustain anything enough to earn a shot. 

So, the options are:
1. Keep him, good/bad/ugly
2. Cut him, goodbye, clear a million
or
3. Option him?  If nobody claims him, he can opt out (and lose the million?) or accept the assignment, and remain on roster at $1.4 or whatever salary? 

Am I close on that, or not really?


I suspect there'd be a pretty good chance he'd accept the option to Iowa if the Cubs offer it to him.  I think that would be a nice situation for both Cubs and Brothers. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 05:01:28 pm
If Brothers is optioned (has two options remaining) and clears revocable waivers, he goes to Iowa. Brothers does not have enough service credit to decline an option. Stays on 40-man. Contract stays in place (unless a split contract with lesser minor league money).

If Cubs want to get him to Iowa AND off 40-man, Cubs can outright him--if gets thru waivers. But, different service credit rules for an outright and Brothers could decline an outright to Iowa. But, if he did that, would be walking away from his contract.

Would seem best course is an option. As AZPhil notes, unusual to see a revocable waiver claim, as club can pull back the option if claimed. Usually a courtesy not to claim in most circumstances.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on December 15, 2015, 05:13:57 pm
Is Ryan a guaranteed contract?  Or the kind of deal where if we cut him before the season we're off the hook for most of it?  I'd just assumed that taking $1M was something to help make the Yankees agree....

Is Brothers the kind of deal where if we cut him, we're off the hook?  Or, if we try to option him, he can opt out but doing so will cost him his salary? 

It's guaranteed as Ryan exercised the 2016 option in his contract on November 3, 2015.   

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on December 15, 2015, 05:32:09 pm
Thanks much.  Very helpful. 

So, if he's got two options left, every time you use one it would be the same revocable waivers I suppose?  I imagine it's a little harder to do the Schlitter yo-yo if every send-down requires revocable waivers process.  Maybe the courtesy thing does allow that no problem.  But I'd imagine if Pirates or Cardinals are in a tight pennant race, they might not be so courteous....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 06:29:00 pm
AZ Phil has pretty interesting organizational depth chart that he updates regularly.

40-man roster guys included on big league depth chart---you can adjust for that by placing where likely to be assigned.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-depth-chart
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on December 15, 2015, 06:46:53 pm
The flaw in that chart seems to be that a guy gets listed in one and only one category.  Sure, Adam Warren and Clayton Richard are on the starting pitcher depth chart, but, as of right now, they're on the team as two of the top eight relief pitchers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2015, 07:33:28 pm
From my perspective, that's not really a flaw. Very easy on your own to figure the player is adaptable to more than one role/position. In any case, major league stuff can be found elsewhere. Interesting part is the minor league charts. That's why posted in this topic.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2015, 02:19:36 pm
Jim Brower was named minor league pitching coordinator.  Former pitching coach for the Royals AA team.  Pitched in the majors with the Giants.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on December 17, 2015, 02:29:29 pm
Jim Brower was named minor league pitching coordinator.  Former pitching coach for the Royals AA team.  Pitched in the majors with the Giants.
Brower was a star pitcher for the Babe Ruth team I helped with years ago.  He is also one of quite a few who played in the Little League World Series.  In one game I recall when he was with the Giants, he balked in the winning run at Wrigley. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2015, 02:36:36 pm
Other interesting news.

Cubs got rid of their VSL team and are going with 2 DSL teams.

Chris Valaika and Jeremy Farrell (Red Sox manager's son) will be the Arizona teams hitting coaches. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on December 17, 2015, 03:02:47 pm
I think that the Cubs had a VSL team because they thought it might help them in signing Venezuelian players.  But with the unrest that they have had there at times, they might have just decided that it isn't worth the trouble.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on December 17, 2015, 05:02:25 pm
I think that the Cubs had a VSL team because they thought it might help them in signing Venezuelian players.  But with the unrest that they have had there at times, they might have just decided that it isn't worth the trouble.

Unless I'm mistaken, this is probably the end of the VSL. There were only four teams there last year, and I doubt anybody would join the league. As for recruiting Venezuelan players, the $300K ceiling on signing bonuses for the next two years has more relevance. Players who sign for $300K or less go where they're told.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2015, 06:01:43 pm
McDaniel alluded to a team combining $300,000 offers to multiple players from a buscone that shouldn't get it, so that they could get a million dollar talent.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on December 26, 2015, 04:06:10 pm
Some possible moves which could elevate the farm system instantly, and perhaps the major league team fairly soon thereafter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on December 26, 2015, 08:13:29 pm
Pierce Johnson scouting report.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159489704/scouting-report-on-cubs-pierce-johnson?topicid=151437456
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on December 29, 2015, 09:25:40 pm
Cubs ‏@c4u4b6s8
@jimcallisMLB where would you rank the Cubs farm system

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 
Without breaking them all down, I'd think the @Cubs would fit in 6-10 range, even after all the graduations.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 06, 2016, 04:22:10 pm
Cubs Den is doing a top 25 for the system.  Here is the link for 6-10.  At the bottom of the article are links to get the others. 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/01/cubs-top-prospects-6-through-10/#image/1
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 10:14:35 am
Thanks CB.  Those are interesting/fun to read.  Arguella is obviously not a scout.  But being down in Arizona he sees a lot of these guys, including in the instrux etc.  So, when read with filter, there's good stuff and some insights in there.  His observations on frame and personalities, delivery, BP vs game, those are pretty interesting, and presumably he has some cub contacts. 

He's pretty on the DelaCruz bandwagon, projecting him with a 70 fastball.  Fun. 

His list has some surprises; he's got Zastryzny at 20, based on his AFL work; he's still got Vogelbach as high as 23; he's still got Sands at #14. 

Some of the guys I've not gotten much scouting previously.  Has Markey with a choppy delivery, and almost no change up.
Caratini as a strong arm and chance to be average defensively.  (We'll see.  I wonder how he scores in terms of game-calling and framing and stuff like that?)

Enthusiastic writeup on Wilson, "very good bat speed", tremendous range in CF", "ball jumps off his bat", "dynamo", "could hit double digit HR's."  Obviously Arguella comes from the Fleita school of positivity, but it's still fun to get a sense for the qualities that made the Cubs spend serious overslot. 

Gives Jiminez a 70 for projected power.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2016, 10:34:55 am
I wouldn't take his future grading worth a lot at this point, yet.  In addition to his Cubs blog he does an AFL blog and is starting to write with a bunch of the Baseball Prospectus prospects guys that broke off and started their own company.  I think his prospect writing as gotten a lot better over the years and he has learned a lot of stuff.  So use the appropriate filters, but his stuff is worth a read. 

FWIW he was the first person on the Wilson Conteras band wagon when he was a .248/.320/.423 catcher at Kane County.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 11:14:48 am
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-chicago-cubs/

Fangraphs ratings of the Cubs farm players.  A guy named Dan Farnsworth. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 11:26:02 am
Farnsworth has his own evaluation.  Seems more scout, with lots of impression/opinion/analysis about swing mechanics.  Possibly helpful.  CB, do you know this guy?

He's got some interesting rankings:
*Vogelbach at #6!!!!  He loves Vogelbach's hitting, and still sees him as a serious power hitter.  Said he had no power because he was playing with hamstring and oblique injuries all year. 
*Zagunis at 8. 
*Contreras/Almora at 9,10. Perhaps the most negative on Almora's powerlessness of any scouting report I recall. 
*Williams, Stinnett, and Zastryzny at 11, 13, and 16.  Quite upbeat on Stinnett and Zastryzny. 
*Eloy at 19
*Tseng and Sands in late 20's, doesn't like either one at all.   

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on January 07, 2016, 11:55:45 am
Those Fangraphs rankings are borderline comedic.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on January 07, 2016, 12:48:03 pm
Great to have different perspective on some guys--Vogelbach, Contreras, etc. in Fangraphs piece. In real world, scouts don't always agree on players, so an interesting perspective if someone is bit of an outlier. No problem with that if there's a stated rationale for the rating. Not that useful if the evaluator parroting conventional wisdom.

Theo specifically mentioned Adbert Alzolay after the post-season (with the better known short-season pitchers), so a bit surprised no mention of him among 40 prospects in Fangraphs piece. Probably inadvertent omission.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2016, 12:57:12 pm
I know nothing about him.  He's new this year.  He seems to back it up and he has types of players that he likes. 

-Underwood, Cease, De La Cruz as potential #2 type pitchers is interesting.
-Almora- "He possesses above-average raw speed."  Almora as a slow player will stop some day.
-Happ, Vogelbach, McKinney seem high to me.
-Having 10 50 or greater prospects, with another 10 guys that could become 50+ prospects is still a very good system
-He seems to be more of a floor vs ceiling guy.  That might explain Jimenez at 19.
-Arguella mentioned Zastrynzy as a replacement for Wood down the road.  I like that idea a lot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 02:12:08 pm
On Hudson.

"Team sources say he has gained 20 pounds since signing."  "His fastball sat in the upper-80s for most of his senior year in high school, but reports from the team have him 91-93 in instructs."

A projectable 6'8" lefty whose curveball is his #1 with a 91-93 fastball as his #2, that's an interesting wildcard.  Heh heh, could be the next Andy Sisco!

Heh heh, ten years ago lefty with Hudson's length would have gotten Randy Johnson allusions. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 02:32:38 pm
...Theo specifically mentioned Adbert Alzolay after the post-season (with the better known short-season pitchers), so a bit surprised no mention of him among 40 prospects in Fangraphs piece. Probably inadvertent omission.

I just re-read the DelaRosa scouting report:  I don't think Farnsworth has probably ever actually seen him.  For other guys, I think he often has some pre-draft scouting notes; he has some first-hand observations for some; and he has some variably limited game-video clip(s) to analyze.  Most hitters he's commenting on their swing plane and hands and stuff; most pitchers he comments on the mechanics of their delivery to variable degree.  None of that for DelaRosa.  He's got a little video clip from spring training, he's got stats, and he's got input from Cubs people.  But none of his own independent delivery analysis like he does with guys he's actually scouted himself.  I think that report is totally written from the stats and from what Cub sources have told him. 

I think this is not unusual, for writers who were formerly draft scouts, regarding short-season Latin players.  BA has often been like that; much of their scouting on short-season guys is largely taken from their pre-draft stuff.   

I assume the same would apply to Alzolay.  Arguella mentioned him in comments this week; said in an earier draft he'd had Alzolay in his top-22, but he's only seen him for 1-2 innings in spring training.  Sounded like Alzolay is supposed to have a very good fastball. 

Alzolay lists at only 6'0", and will be 22.  Alzolay is interesting; when a guy is 21 and doesn't get used as a starter at Eugene, I don't really expect likely to become an impact starter later.  My guess is he's got a pretty hot fastball, but at first they figured a 6'0" fastballer is probably a reliever.  Over his first 41 innings, mostly in relief, he had 30K/41IP.  Nothing to catch your attention there.  But then late in the season he got 3 starts, and in his final two starts he was 19K/12IP/1BB. 

I assume whatever was happening in those two starts is what Theo had in his brain.  And my guess is that if Alzolay has a hot fastball, that perhaps by end of season he'd come up with some kind of a breaking ball that was working for him.  You don't get 19K/12BB throwing all fastballs.  Will be interesting to see how he gets used next spring.   

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ticohans on January 07, 2016, 02:48:11 pm
Farnsworth is definitely a floor vs ceiling guy, probably reflecting a scouts first-hand view of how many prospects flame out. Personally, I like that his voice is so different. Don't need another publication parroting BA, etc.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 02:49:19 pm
South Bend could have an interesting roster.  DelaRosa, Steele, and Sands would all seem rotation step-ups and locks. 
Perhaps Alzolay? 
Jose Paulino? 
Preston Morrison, Ryan Kellog, and Kyle Twomey are three college draftees who might be variably interesting.  Morrison with his 30K/3BB/22IP at Eugene probably overqualified and skips to A+. 

But that could be a pretty win-effective rotation. 

Maybe Happ will skip to Myrtle, but probably start at South Bend. 
A lineup with Happ, Jiminez, DeWees, perhaps EJ Martinez, perhaps Wilson, that could have some fun hitters to follow, too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on January 07, 2016, 03:04:45 pm
In his Cubs prospect chat at BA in November, John Manuel mentioned Pedro Araujo along with Alzolay.

Araujo is already 22, so pretty likely he'll be in South Bend bullpen at least. At Eugene last season, 70 Ks and 9 BB in 50 IP. Took him awhile to progress from DSL earlier in career. Maybe another guy to watch in this category.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 05:12:42 pm
In his Cubs prospect chat at BA in November, John Manuel mentioned Pedro Araujo along with Alzolay.

Araujo is already 22, so pretty likely he'll be in South Bend bullpen at least. At Eugene last season, 70 Ks and 9 BB in 50 IP. Took him awhile to progress from DSL earlier in career. Maybe another guy to watch in this category.

Yeah.  BA's post-season report on Araujo (22) didn't list him with enough velocity to be very exciting.  The same, I think, applies for reports on Blackburn (22) or Tseng (21), or Erick Leal (20) or Kellogg (22). 
But, pitching and age/development is an inexact and non-reproducible deal.  Normally, big velocity increases are more likely to emerge before guys are hitting 21 and 22, not after.  But, I suspect there are some exceptions.  Perhaps some change in training regimen, perhaps strengthening or perhaps somehow loosening the shoulder, (perhaps some banned steroids), can boost some velocity.  More often some mechanical adjustment that improves the delivery, can sometimes enable guys in their 20's to add a couple mph at unexpected ages. 

If suddenly this spring we were getting reports that Araujo/Blackburn/Tseng/Kellogg/Leal were throwing significantly harder, without loss of control/movement, who knows which might become significantly more interesting.  Not impossible.  That would be pretty fun. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 05:17:59 pm
Have Cubs hired Derek Johnson replacement yet as pitching coordinator?  Johnson was very, very well respected, so may be hard to find his equal. 

Still, always possible that a new guy might come in who's got a few really good new ideas of his own, or who can perhaps notice some delivery flaws and solutions that Johnson didn't?  Or maybe who just has an ability to connect with a few guys and help them out?  Would be fun to add some value.


OK, the power of Google!  Jim Brower, 43, 8-team journeyman plus Japan and Italy and lots of minor-league stops as a player.  5 years coaching in Kansas City system, last three in AA.  Hey, he's a Minnesota kid, he's going to be great!  I imagine being a journeyman like that exposes to a lot of different pitching coaches, and probably  a lot of different teammates with different ideas.  If one voice gets old, he's probably heard a lot of them, and could have accumulated a lot of good ideas. 


Cubs generally seem to be pretty shrewd on the personnel side, so I've got to assume he's a capable guy.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on January 07, 2016, 07:48:25 pm
*Vogelbach at #6!!!!  He loves Vogelbach's hitting, and still sees him as a serious power hitter.  Said he had no power because he was playing with hamstring and oblique injuries all year. 


It would be wonderful if he is right, and if so, certainly the Cub have been aware of it, and that knowledge might explain why he was not packaged together with some other prospects for something of value.  That said, despite having started as one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Vogelbach, I have close to written him off after the 2015 season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 07, 2016, 08:35:11 pm
I'm with you, jes.  :)  He was #40 on my prospect list, which I think reflected my thinking when the season ended.  A DH-prospect who hits 7 HR isn't that valuable to us, or to anybody else in trade. 

But the injury excuse, that's interesting.  A 20-HR Vogelbach who otherwise hits and walks like he does, without K-ing too much, that could be a value. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on January 07, 2016, 09:24:58 pm
One of the problems with judging a prospect solely on stats is that there is a lot of things that can affect performance that we are not privy to.  Did he have minor nagging injuries?  Was he asked to work on specific weaknesses?  Does he have a flaw that the training staff believes is correctable?

Regardless, I find it hard to think of a scenario in which I would rate Vogelbach sixth in the Cubs system right now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on January 08, 2016, 08:27:50 am
One of the problems with judging a prospect solely on stats is that there is a lot of things that can affect performance that we are not privy to.  Did he have minor nagging injuries?  Was he asked to work on specific weaknesses?  Does he have a flaw that the training staff believes is correctable?

Regardless, I find it hard to think of a scenario in which I would rate Vogelbach sixth in the Cubs system right now.

I don't know about that.  If you just attributed 30 hypothetical HR to the rest of the guy's 2015 stats....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on January 08, 2016, 07:50:41 pm
P.J. Francescon suspended 50 games for a second failed drug test.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/161460196/cubs-jp-francescon-suspended-for-50-games
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 10, 2016, 01:37:28 pm
The Cubs released him, but driveline baseball tweeted out that Trey McNutt has gone from throwing in the mid 80's in Oct up to 100 in January. They are big on the weighted balls work out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on January 10, 2016, 05:50:40 pm
How do inject weighted balls?  Or is that code for testosterone?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 13, 2016, 07:27:30 am
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v538368383/mlb-rookie-prg-albert-almora-chc-of

Almora interview. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 14, 2016, 11:38:21 am
2080 is where a bunch of BP prospects guy went to start a new company.  This is written by Arguella.

http://2080baseball.com/2016/01/who-ya-got-carson-sands-vs-justin-steele/

From Cubs Den the guys outside of the top 25

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/01/the-not-25-breaking-down-some-of-the-prospects-who-did-not-make-the-list/


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 17, 2016, 05:37:10 pm
http://vineline.mlblogs.com/2016/01/17/2016-cubs-convention-down-on-the-farm/

Recap of Down-on-the-farm segment at convention.  Not a lot of surprises.  Three guests were Jokisch, Vogelbach, and CJ Edwards. 
1.  Jokisch sounds like a really smart, thinking guy.  Vogelbach, not so much. 
2.  Positive comment on Markey. 
3.  Usual list of primary prospects.  No surprises, and the Eugene pitcher who Theo had unexpectedly mentioned was not mentioned here. 
4.  Positive on Cease, and Martinez.
5.  Did not preclude the possibility of Edwards returning to rotation someday. 
6.  Note on Alcantara, adjustments to try to handle off speed made it so he couldn't hit fastball anymore either. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 17, 2016, 08:13:34 pm
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/01/day-three-of-2016-cubs-convention-down-on-the-farm-with-jason-mcleod-jaron-madison.php

more detailed recap of the session.  Not sure whether it's interesting or not to notice which names McLeod/Madison rattled off quickly, and perhaps which names were not included. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on January 21, 2016, 03:41:59 am
Sickels' top-20 list:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/1/20/10762082/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2016
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 21, 2016, 11:55:36 am
http://mbpelicans.mlblogs.com/2016/01/21/cubs-con-interview-series-part-4-cubs-director-of-player-development-jaron-madison/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 21, 2016, 11:56:12 am
Sickels' top-20 list:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/1/20/10762082/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2016

That is an interesting list.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 21, 2016, 12:49:54 pm
http://mbpelicans.mlblogs.com/2016/01/21/cubs-con-interview-series-part-4-cubs-director-of-player-development-jaron-madison/ (http://mbpelicans.mlblogs.com/2016/01/21/cubs-con-interview-series-part-4-cubs-director-of-player-development-jaron-madison/)

Thanks, Blue.  I really enjoyed that interview.  Madison is a major guy in the farm area, but I don't recall hearing him talk very often.  Seemed practical and nice. 

Two notes:
1.  He talked about Happ being full-time conversion to 2B.  Obviously he doesn't mean that's forever, but sounds like for this spring/summer, 2B is the story.  I like that.  If he can play a solid 2B, his bat could be really valuable.  Zobrist has a limited window.  Baez and Torres are other candidates, obviously, but including Happ in that 2B mix is nice. 

Madison suggested that bat-wise, Happ would default for Myrtle.  But, he wasn't sure with the 2B defense whether he'd be a Myrtle guy or South Bend.  South Bend could have a pretty strong lineup, if it had Happ 2B, Eloy, probably DeWees, possibly Martinez in center, possibly even DJ Wilson?  Could be a strong group. 


2.  Madison had some favorable comments about Caratini.  I've never really heard much inside commentary about how they view him.  Madison suggested Caratini was hitting the ball hard, in bad luck, first half.  Noted that his defense needed work.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on January 23, 2016, 05:39:43 pm

chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2015/12/cubs-announce-minor-league-managers-staff-and-coordinators-for-the-2016-season.php
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on January 26, 2016, 06:15:29 pm
BP released their top 101 done by Chris Crawford

41.) Torres
57.) Contreras
67.) Happ
74.) McKinney
83.) Almora
97.) Eddy Julio Martinez
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 26, 2016, 09:39:06 pm
http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/01/25/cubs-svp-of-player-development-and-amateur-scouting-jason-mcleod-talks-prospects/

McLeod interview on Torres, Edwards, Johnson, and McKinney. 

He talks about McKinney as a 20-HR guy, not "big power".  Man, I think a 20-HR McKinney would be an enormously valuable offensive player.  Also said that McKinney would probably not be ready for the hard infields of Arizona. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on January 26, 2016, 09:44:54 pm
BP released their top 101 done by Chris Crawford

41.) Torres
57.) Contreras
67.) Happ
74.) McKinney
83.) Almora
97.) Eddy Julio Martinez

We've noted this often, but still pretty amazing to graduate so many players, and still show up with 6 top-100's.  I'm still astonished.  And no shortage of others who could easily play themselves onto a top-100 list by midseason, if things go well.  (Underwood, DelaCruz, Candelario, Eloy, Cease...)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on January 26, 2016, 09:49:43 pm
MLB's top 100 prospects list comes out Friday. They've been unveiling their top 10 by position and they placed Contreras first among catchers, Happ third among second basemen, and Candelario seventh among third basemen.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=c

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=2b

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=3b

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on January 27, 2016, 06:37:03 pm
Torres 9th on MLB's shortstop list:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ss
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2016, 06:42:41 pm
Torres 9th on MLB's shortstop list:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ss

Hard to believe there are that many better than him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on January 27, 2016, 08:10:44 pm
There are probably more good young shortstops in the majors and minors right now that at any time since I have been following baseball.  For some reason, there seems to be a current wave of them.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on January 29, 2016, 11:24:44 pm
MLB's top 100 list out tonight.

Torres #28

Contreras #50

Happ #76

Underwood #77

Almora #86

McKinney #88


http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on February 02, 2016, 08:49:32 am
Piece on Torres and Jimenez:

http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/02/01/torres-and-jimenez-ascend-together-through-ascendant-system/

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 03, 2016, 11:42:24 pm
I guess there wasn't much doubt about Almora opening the season at AAA (rather than going back to AA) but Jason McLeod confirms that Almora opening the season at AAA, in this Mooney piece.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-believe-albert-almora%E2%80%99s-time-coming-after-kris-bryant-and-kyle-schwarber%E2%80%99s-fast-track
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on February 04, 2016, 09:22:19 am
It would sure be nice if Pierce Johnson could put it all together and be a cheap option for the injury replacement this year or Hammel replacement next.  He has apparently developed a change up that has made all the difference. 

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/163562558/cubs-prospect-pierce-johnsons-changeup-key
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 04, 2016, 01:08:17 pm
Interesting, thanks, Robb.  Agree, having Johnson emerge as a viable decent rotation option would really help.  Whether for injury, or Hammel 2nd-half decline this year.  Or for 2017 when Hammel no longer has a guaranteed deal, or for that matter for 2018 when Lackey's is done.  Would be interesting to see what Johnson did if he was and stayed healthy all spring and into the summer. 

Interesting that he speaks positively about his change development, as if that's new and was heavily incorporated. 

Sahadev Sharma had a Johnson report in Vineline just this week.  Instead of talking about the change, he said that Johnson had developed a cutter during 2014, and that in 2015 he relied heavily, perhaps excessively, on his cutter.  Suggested some Cub people thought he hadn't used his fastball enough, and that the increased reliance on the cutter perhaps led to Johnson's drop in K's. 

If he had a *good* fastball and slider, and then added in good cutter plus also a good change, that would give some tools to win with.  The flip is that his fastball command has often been scouted as inconsistent.  May be that having four pitches, several still in the development mode, might work against consistent command of any of them.  Hopefully he'll be a nice development story, guy who needed to add some weapons, and over time masters them and ends up succeeding.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on February 04, 2016, 01:37:34 pm
Johnson has manged to stay healthy enough to pitch 118, 103, and 95 innings over his 3-year career. Why would anyone have confidence that he can be a durable starter anywhere at this point?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 04, 2016, 02:38:19 pm
Chris, were any of those arm-related?  No I'd neither confidently expect that Johnson would be either durable or effective as a starter.  But sometimes things go unexpectedly well for teams that win the WS, and things that couldn't have been confidently expected turn out to happen anyway. 

Pro athletes get injured, but I still question how predictive past injuries are of future injuries.  That may vary from injury to injury and man to man. 
*If a guy has a chronically injured shoulder (Neil Ramirez, maybe?) or injured back, things that have not and never will heal completely, then of course those issues are likely to be recurring.  But I don't think that's Johnson at this point.  His lat injury, I don't think that's at all connected to the ankle injury or whatever from 2014. 

*Another scenario may be that certain guys are just inherently fragile for whatever reason.  If it's not one thing it's another.  That may well be Johnson.

*But, there also is coincidence.  It may be coincidence that Johnson has had unrelated injuries.  He may perhaps not have any greater probability of incurring some non-arm-related injury this year than any other pitcher we've got. 

*In his case there may be the thought that his delivery isn't good, and that his size isn't great either.  So that while his recent injuries have NOT been arm-related, that if he is racking up rotation innings it's a matter of time before his arm will give out.  Perhaps so. 

Chris Coghlan had a reputation as a repeatedly-injured guy.  But now he's gone back-to-back years just fine.  May have been coincidental.  I'm hoping it's just been coincidental with Johnson and that he'll be both effective and available. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 04, 2016, 03:19:51 pm
I forget what Johnson does with his delivery, but he does something at the end of the delivery that increases stress on his elbow.  His injury in college was to the elbow.  I'm kinda like Chris in I'll believe it when I see him pitch full years without injury.

I think he would be really interesting as a Cahill replacement.  Somebody that pitches out of the bullpen and maybe spot starts.

It isn't so much that previous injury=future injury.  Previous injury is the risk factor for future injury that has the best predictive value.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 04, 2016, 04:12:34 pm
....It isn't so much that previous injury=future injury.  Previous injury is the risk factor for future injury that has the best predictive value.

That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: method on February 04, 2016, 04:34:23 pm
That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 

Players hide injuries, overcompensate and hurt themselves in different ways... Anthony Rendon is the perfect example of this....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 04, 2016, 04:57:03 pm
 
But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 

For a pitcher I would consider a lat injury part of the arm.  The delivery is putting stress in places it shouldn't be.  Does it mean the elbow or shoulder is going to blow out?  No.  It would be a red flag.

An ankle injury wouldn't have predictive value for an elbow injury.  It would be concerning for future ankle injuries. 

Now method is certainly right, playing through an ankle injury might alter his delivery and put stress in places that you don't it be.  That could lead to arm injuries, but it isn't going to have a big predictive value.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 04, 2016, 05:00:41 pm
Thanks method, that makes good sense.  So, last year's lat injury may have led to compensation that stressed the delivery and will lead to elbow injury this summer.  Well possible. 

One irony is that perhaps some of the "injury-prone" guys are viewed so because they were held out, thus reducing risk of compensation injury.  The Cubs are very cautious with farm injuries.  Actions to avoid the risk of compensation injury, in a sense are now being held against the player. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on February 04, 2016, 05:18:24 pm
Johnson has manged to stay healthy enough to pitch 118, 103, and 95 innings over his 3-year career. Why would anyone have confidence that he can be a durable starter anywhere at this point?

That's the crux of it for me.  Tinkering with the pitch mix is fine, but I just don't see the durability history to indicate Johnson can be counted on as a likely option for the rotation.  If he surprises, then great.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 04, 2016, 08:10:07 pm
That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true.

Repetitive stress injuries can be predictive of repetitive stress injuries, even if a different part of the body is involved -- some folks simply are not particularly durable.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 04, 2016, 08:24:08 pm
I don't think that anyone is counting on Johnson, any more than they are counting on anyone else in the minor league system.  That is why they build depth and flexibility into the rosters throughout the system.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 04, 2016, 08:49:31 pm
Heh, probably a lot less.  Johnson is rarely included in people's top-ten lists, and near the back when he is. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 04, 2016, 11:10:18 pm
For me, one of the few off-season disappointments is that Cubs were unable to trade for a quality starting pitching prospect to park at AAA who is close to major-league ready. Easier said than done. I assume that Cubs made an attempt to do that but didn't want to overpay.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 05, 2016, 10:08:02 am
Very much easier said than done.  Quality prospects of any type are seldom traded for other than established veterans.  And the Cubs really don't have any established veterans that they can spare this year.  Montero and Soler probably come the closest, and Montero doesn't seem to be in much demand, while Soler is really not established at this point.  Coghlan probably wouldn't return very much.

I think bringing in Warren in return for Castro probably comes closest, and will be a great help to the team.  But he is hardly an AAA level player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 05, 2016, 12:25:07 pm
Thinking more of prospect-for-prospect deal for pitching prospect to park at AAA. Don't see too many of prospect/prospect deals but happen on occasion. Guys who seem blocked in Cubs system--McKinney, Candelario--could see that type of deal for comparable pitcher. Hard to do but guessing Cubs explored that, given position player weighted system of late.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 05, 2016, 12:41:21 pm
I'd figured Castro might be traded for a guy like that.  Hopefully getting Warren instead will provide excellent value. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on February 05, 2016, 02:13:09 pm
I think they had hopes for Jacob Turner and may still have hope for Edwards.   They've also manifested a great skill at recognizing potential fixes and retreads: Arrieta (to an extent), Cahill, Richard, Rodney, Strop, plus finding the right seat on the bus for Wood.   I'm still hoping they swoop in on Lincecum as another reclamation project.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on February 05, 2016, 05:21:08 pm
I get the sense that the Cubs have completely abandoned the idea of Edwards as a starter.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 05, 2016, 07:42:20 pm
I get the sense that the Cubs have completely abandoned the idea of Edwards as a starter.

Why?  What gives you that sense?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 05, 2016, 07:43:55 pm
I think they had hopes for Jacob Turner and may still have hope for Edwards.   They've also manifested a great skill at recognizing potential fixes and retreads: Arrieta (to an extent), Cahill, Richard, Rodney, Strop, plus finding the right seat on the bus for Wood.   I'm still hoping they swoop in on Lincecum as another reclamation project.

I've mentioned liking that possibility for about 8 months now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 06, 2016, 06:25:56 pm
 BA came out with their top 31. They would also rate the Cubs system at 20, which seems very low.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 06, 2016, 07:51:12 pm
Interesting, surprising. 

Perhaps speaks to their valuation of stars.  Cubs have a good deep system, but not much star-power on their list. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on February 07, 2016, 12:45:37 am
It does seem like our farm system is weak again.

With all of the stud horses we've promoted in the last few years we've been spoiled but our big name promotions this year should be Contreras, Almora, and Pierce Johnson.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 07, 2016, 08:45:19 am
The Cubs farm system is far from weak. It lacks talent like Bryant, Russel, Schwarber, Soler and Baez. Outside of the Dodgers and Red Sox no other system can come close to that. The Cubs still have a fair amount of top 100 talent, young guys with a lot of upside and depth.  When all the lists are released this will be an outlier.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on February 10, 2016, 12:55:01 pm
BA came out with their top 31. They would also rate the Cubs system at 20, which seems very low.

Keith Law has a much more favorable rating.  He says the Cubs have the #4 farm system:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14726383/atlanta-braves-top-farm-system-rankings-2016-mlb

They graduated Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell, but are still loaded with talent, albeit most of it unlikely to help before 2017. The system has long been light on arms, but there's some pitching coming if you squint hard enough into the distance.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 10, 2016, 02:27:51 pm
Stolen from the CCO write-up

"Theo Epstein said last month that he thought the system fell in the five to seven range among the 30 teams. Keith Law has always been brutally honest when it comes to the Cubs and their prospects. Law ranking the Cubs’ system fourth is in line with the way the organization as a whole is viewed throughout the game."

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 10, 2016, 03:19:28 pm
Baseball America has always slanted towards potential impact-near MLB ready prospects, and the Cubs have few if any right now.  Some of the other publications place a little more value on depth.  I am  a little surprised that Law ranked them as high as he did.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on February 10, 2016, 04:01:00 pm
I'm not sure I've ever see a system ranked that disparately before.  Obviously Law nudged the ranking up at least a few spots to call attention to himself after seeing the BA rank - that's just how he is.  But the reality is almost certainly somewhere in-between those two extremes, where most of the scouting publications have the Cubs placed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 10, 2016, 04:11:07 pm
Transcript of Jason McLeod interview.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 10, 2016, 04:45:01 pm
Baseball America has always slanted towards potential impact-near MLB ready prospects, and the Cubs have few if any right now.  Some of the other publications place a little more value on depth.  I am  a little surprised that Law ranked them as high as he did.

Law is closer to where Theo was putting the system.  Law is also orders of magnitude higher on Martinez than BA.  BA considers him a pretty blah prospect, where Law would have him as a top of the draft guy in 2016.

I think there is a difference in types of depth too.  This current system has a lot of guys that could slot into the back 10 of other teams prospect lists, so guys are valuable.  In the past the Cubs had a lot guys in the 20-30 range, they aren't that valuable.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 10, 2016, 05:44:02 pm
Reflects the "eye of the beholder" bit.  BA's is supposedly informed by input from multiple scouts, so theoretically might be a better consensus-view thermometer than Law, who is a one-man evaluation team.  As Dave noted, other factor may be different weighting of the value of a few primo, superstar, top-30-in-game prospects versus depth of 50-150-in-baseball types.  If Torres/Contreras/Almora are on the very top of our list, those guys aren't exactly superstar candidates. 

In Law's case, he may have been "brutally honest" on Vogelbach and Szczur in years past.  But I think he's somewhat over-the-top hyper gush on some of the current cub guys. 
*He's huge on Torres.  Saw him in batting practice before a Myrtle game, and loves him.
*He's the most positive Happ guy I've heard of. 
*He was super-buzzed on Martinez, as Blue mentioned, kind of the opposite extreme from BA's Badler. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 10, 2016, 05:57:16 pm
If Torres/Contreras/Almora are on the very top of our list, those guys aren't exactly superstar candidates. 


I think Torres and Contreras both are likely to have major league All Star games in their future.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on February 10, 2016, 06:11:43 pm
Law is also down on Almora more than most--I would be shocked if he ended up being one of the six Cubs on the top 100 tomorrow.

The main thing about Law is he is very confident (some might say arrogant) in his evaluations.  That comes across as being contrarian just for the sake of it sometimes, but I think it's just that he thinks he's right.  Also, he's gone on record in the past as saying that he values many of the same characteristics in prospects that Theo values, so it shouldn't be a shock that he's on board with the Cubs' thinking.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 10, 2016, 08:38:01 pm
kind of the opposite extreme from BA's Badler. 

Badler isn't a scout. He does an excellent job of covering international guys, until Jesse Sanchez started doing it he was the only game in town.

Law isn't a one man show. He has Eric Longerham (sp) working for him right now.  Longerham started with Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs before jumping to ESPN. Prior to Longerham BP current prospect guy worked with Law. Before him it was McDaniel. Law can be a bit of an a$$, which leads to some misconceptions about him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on February 11, 2016, 06:19:52 am
The six Cubs who made Law's list:

15. Gleyber Torres
27. Willson Contreras
47. Ian Happ
69 Billy McKinney
88. Albert Almora
91. Dylan Cease

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14740563/index-top-100-prospects-2016-including-corey-seager-others-mlb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on February 11, 2016, 07:23:18 am
Am I the only one that isn't drinking the Ian Happ Kool-Aid?

I sure hope that he is worthy of a top 50 ranking, but I don't understand what puts him there.  It seems like he has an iffy glove, strikes out quite a bit, isn't a huge power potential guy, isn't overly fast.......

Can anyone paint me a picture on this?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 11, 2016, 09:21:09 am
Yeah, that's really high on Happ.  Law loves his swing and his approach.  Hope he's right. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 11, 2016, 09:26:32 am
Ian Happ, in my opinion, is not anywhere close in to the potential (or probability of reaching that potential) as Bryant or Schwarber.  But I would still rate him above the level of McKinney or Almora, if for no other reason than that he has a combination of excellent speed and better than average power.  You call his glove "iffy" and I have no problem with that if you mean that he has not yet proven that he can play second base.  But nor has he proven that he can not play second base adequately.

He did strike out quite a bit, but he also walked quite a bit.  His OBA was about 100 points higher than his BA.  And 9 home runs in 250 at bats is a fair amount of power for a first year professional.

I think that Happ is pretty much what we have to expect from our top draft choices from this point on.  He seems to have a ceiling of a better than average, but not dominant player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 11, 2016, 10:31:56 am
Happ
Boise    .283/.408/.491,  ISO .208,  17.7 BB%,  21.5% K%,  .347 BABIP
SB        .241/.315/.448,  ISO .207,  10.3 BB%,  23.6    K%,  .288 BABIP

So Happ right now can play all 3 OF positions and is a switch hitter.  He ran into some bad batted luck at South Bend that depressed his numbers.  His power potential is just a tick below Javy.   If he can play an average second base that is a pretty awesome prospect. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on February 11, 2016, 11:53:56 am
Pretty good painting so far.  Thanks!!

I think he fits the versatility profile that Madden likes.  I like that he is a switch hitter.  I have to question that his power potential is just a tick below Baez.  He had great power numbers in his limited minor league stint, but most of the ratings I saw prior to the draft (or just after) had him as a 50 or 60 which is average or a tick above.  I would like to think that the scouts were wrong about his power and that his minor league showing was more in tune with what we can expect, but it is a small sample.

I will withhold judgment and hope for the best.  I'm not saying that he won't pan out.  I am simply saying that a top 50 ranking seems high when most draft "experts" had him going in the 20 range of the draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 11, 2016, 12:58:42 pm
That is where everybody had Schwarber as well pre-draft.

As far as power goes
50 would be 15-18 HR
55 19-22 HR
60 23-27 HR
65 27-30 HR
70 30-35 HR
75 35-40 HR
80 40+    HR

I'd put Baez in the 60-65 area for power and Happ more in the 55-60.  If everything clicks for Baez, he might be a 70+ power guy, but a lot has to go right for that to happen.  To me that is a tick below.

At second base last year only 2 hit more than 20 HR, 7 where 15+.  In CF 5 where 20+, 9 full time CF had 15+.  In the corner OF his power would have to be more towards the top of his projection and that is what hurt his draft stock.

Top 50 is high for him, but a lot of people on this board are way to low on him.  Even if he's a top 50 prospect he's far from a sure thing to even reach the majors, let alone be a quality player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on February 11, 2016, 01:16:49 pm
I like Happ and think he could be a very useful ML player. Not so sure he is top 50 type prospect, though
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 11, 2016, 01:34:31 pm
Law projects Happ at 2B. As an up-the-middle guy on the defensive spectrum, that's a lot of brownie points.

Other thing is that Happ has been an accomplished hitter since Freshman season---played at the Cape and excelled there TWICE and has a track record, which is more of a deal for some scouts than others--kind of a known quantity.

And, a switch-hitter who walks a lot. Big plus.

Ks are an issue of course but at 2B--if that works out--you have a player. Saw him at the Cape once-- at DH that day-- and has a terrific lefty swing. Jumps out at you.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 11, 2016, 02:57:42 pm
Some Keith Law chat that I found interesting.

John: How does Jose Peraza hit 293/.316/.378 as a 21-year-old in AAA and drop from #24 in your rankings last year to off the list??
Klaw: So this seems like a good first question because I can start by clearing up a misconception or two. First, the 2015 list is not just (2014 ranking + 2015 performance). I start from scratch each year, and if that means correcting a mistake or two (or ten) from the previous year’s list, so be it. If I tried to use old lists as a basis for future ones, I’d just be perpetuating old errors. There’s value in being consistent, but too much so is just stubbornness. Second, nothing about this list is purely performance-based; the rankings are based in scouting, in physical tools and baseball skills, as much as they are in performance, probably more so. As for Peraza, a second baseman with no power and a .316 OBP is not someone who belongs on a top 100. The reports from the past year were worse than the year before, and now with two years gone from shortstop, the odds of him being able to return there seem quite slim.

Ed: Jon Gray (40 IP) meet service time to miss the list or he’s just fallen that far in a year?
Klaw: He’s gone backwards. Someone altered his delivery, so he’s lost a lot of power. His fastball is down, his slider went from a 70 to a 50, and he has zero deception. That’s why he got whacked around in the big leagues – hitters see the straight four-seamer and hit it. Back in college, he finished way more over his front side, got more tilt on the slider, was touching 99, and even had a better changeup. I don’t know what caused the alteration, but I saw it and so did every scout I asked about Gray for these reports.

KLAW hates my team: You mentioned a few months ago that you thought Eddy Julio Martinez would be in the running for the top pick in this years draft, but he didn’t make the top 100. Is this mainly due to lack of certainly being that you haven’t seen him play in a game?
Klaw: Nobody’s seen him play – and his brief time in the CNS wasn’t great (plus I think it was two years ago). My gut on his upside was not enough to just stuff the guy into the top 100. Yes, it’s my list, but it’s grounded in way more than what my eyes see.

Justin: Is there anything in particular that makes you think Wilson Contreras’s performance last season was predictive progress rather than an aberration?
Klaw: Tools are there. Great swing. Very athletic kid. Can even run a little. Throws well. Receiving is not great. But definitely performance supported by the scouting report.

Ed: Nice to Albert Almora back on the list. Would you say he’s progressed well since last year, or is it fair to say with all of the promotions in 2015 that the top 100 this year isn’t rated quite as high as last years?
Klaw: I think both are fair. Promotions really hit the minors hard, so this year’s list is skewed more towards players who are further away or a touch flawed. But he did make some modest progress at the plate, and he could always field.

Michael: Do you Arismendy Alcantara turning things around this year?
Klaw: I think he has the ability, but I honestly don’t know what the true reasons were behind his 2015 struggles.

James: Good afternoon! Let’s say that an org recommends a pitcher change his delivery, mound position, etc. And let’s say the pitcher doth protest. Can a pitcher do himself damage within the org by resisting, even if he’s concerned about the impact of that change on his future health/ability/prospects?
Klaw: He’d be right to do so and I wish more pitchers would push back. I think this happened to Appel in Houston and he complied with their wishes, speeding up his delivery, ditching the two-seamer, going to the slide-step even though he can get long in the back so now his arm doesn’t catch up … and voila, results that don’t match the stuff.

aaron: Keith- How much of Gleyber Torres’ rating is tied to being a shortstop? As he probably won’t play there with the Cubs already with Russell, how would being at 2nd or 3rd affect his high slot?
Klaw: If he’s truly a shortstop, then that’s how I’ll rate him. Club context does not apply. Otherwise I might downgrade every Rockies’ starter because of what pitching in Denver does, but I treat their guys like I’d treat any other team’s starters.

Steve: How do you see Ian Happ progressing? I’ve read concerns about his bat missing a lot last season. Any concern there? Is he destined for the OF or can he handle 2B duties at the MLB level?
Klaw: Second base for me. Bat missing meaning a lot of swing and miss? He’s definitely a high walk/high strikeout guy but I don’t think he’s a guy who struggles with contact so much as a guy who likes to work the count a lot and isn’t afraid of striking out.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 11, 2016, 07:19:57 pm
Am I the only one that isn't drinking the Ian Happ Kool-Aid?

I sure hope that he is worthy of a top 50 ranking, but I don't understand what puts him there.  It seems like he has an iffy glove, strikes out quite a bit, isn't a huge power potential guy, isn't overly fast.......

Can anyone paint me a picture on this?

At the end of the season, as one of the first posters here to put together and share his own personal prospect list, and using primarily nothing more than stats, ages, experience levels, and other things independent of laying eyes on a player, I did not include Happ in the Cubs' top 20 prospects.  (I may not even have included him in the top 30, but I am uncertain whether I went that far with my list).  No other poster expressed anything resembling my lack of impression with his performance, and most rallied around their faith in the Cubs having drafted him highly as an assurance that he is still a high quality prospect.  None of their arguments on his behalf seemed persuasive, though those who started out persuaded all seemed to remain persuaded and certainly no one else expressed doubts as strong as mine.  (To me his performance was not terrible, but simple nothing resembling impressive.  I have seen nothing since to change my impression.)

Happ
Boise    .283/.408/.491,  ISO .208,  17.7 BB%,  21.5% K%,  .347 BABIP
SB        .241/.315/.448,  ISO .207,  10.3 BB%,  23.6    K%,  .288 BABIP

So Happ right now can play all 3 OF positions and is a switch hitter.  He ran into some bad batted luck at South Bend that depressed his numbers.  His power potential is just a tick below Javy.   

Happ hit 9 HR in 295 PA in 2015 at age 20, facing pitchers in the Northwest League and the Midwest League.  He also hit an additional 17 2B and 4 triples, for a total of 30 extrabase hits.

When Baez was the same age he was in high A and AA ball, and hit a total of 37 HR, along with 38 other extrabase hits for a total of 75 extrabase hits in 577 PA.  Baez slugged .578 when he was the same, but two levels higher than Happ.  When Baez was 19 and in the Midwest league, Baez had a slugging percentage of .596, 150 points higher than Happ put up in the same league when he was a year older.

"His power potential is just a tick below Javy."

I have offered no new opinion whatsoever here regarding Happ's prospects.  I have simply pointed to his numbers compared to Happ's numbers are the same ages and same levels.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on February 12, 2016, 09:08:52 am
Law released a list of 10 honorable mentions today, and Eddy Julio Martinez is the first guy he lists.  Here's the write-up:

Quote
Martinez was supposed to get something around $10 million in the last international signing period, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the rumored deal never came to fruition and he ended up signing with the Cubs for $3 million in October. He's a toolshed, with great bat speed, raw power and plus speed, but has barely any game experience, with only 46 games in Cuba's Serie Nacional under his belt before he defected. He hit .233/.329/.319 at ages 18 and 19. Now 21, Martinez should be ready to go to high-A, but no one seems to have any feel for how advanced he is as a hitter, and we won't really know until he gets back out on the field. He has the tools of a top-50 or even top-25 prospect, but we need to see if those tools play.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 13, 2016, 02:20:04 am
BA has three Cubs in their top 100 prospect list.

Torres 41

Contreras  67

Happ  87
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 13, 2016, 01:09:16 pm
BA's podcast about their rankings just confuses me more.

1) Their tool ratings have nothing to do with where the prospect is ranked. Torres is rated a 55 overall, but he has a 60 hit, 60 power, 55 run, 60 field, 60 arm. Compare that to the ratings that AJ Reed gets as the #11 prospect. Reed a 1B gets a 65 power and that is the only tool higher than Torres.

2) Cubs get dinged because of their prospects youth. Of the Astros top 100 guys only 3 have reached AA and none have spent a full year in AA.
3) They really buy into Lunow as a talent evaluator. Let's call this the Ornri bounce.
4) I have no problem with them giving a bonus for stars players in an org or penalizing teams for having low floors. It seems hard then to make the Braves your #3 org. I also question how somebody like Reed could be your #11 prospect. His bat will have to be really special to make up for being a bad fielding 1B/DH.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 13, 2016, 01:19:58 pm
BA's podcast about their rankings just confuses me more.

1) Their tool ratings have nothing to do with where the prospect is ranked. Torres is rated a 55 overall, but he has a 60 hit, 60 power, 55 run, 60 field, 60 arm. Compare that to the ratings that AJ Reed gets as the #11 prospect. Reed a 1B gets a 65 power and that is the only tool higher than Torres.

2) Cubs get dinged because of their prospects youth. Of the Astros top 100 guys only 3 have reached AA and none have spent a full year in AA.
3) They really buy into Lunow as a talent evaluator. Let's call this the Ornri bounce.
4) I have no problem with them giving a bonus for stars players in an org or penalizing teams for having low floors. It seems hard then to make the Braves your #3 org. I also question how somebody like Reed could be your #11 prospect. His bat will have to be really special to make up for being a bad fielding 1B/DH.




It sounds less as if their rankings confuse you as it does that you are pointing out their rankings are confused.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 13, 2016, 01:57:25 pm
BA rankings include a "risk" factor: low, medium, high. So, player A with a slightly better tools ranking than player B might rank below player B if player B is deemed less risky. Think that explains Torres.

Hard to miss this because BA put the risk factor in the same little box as the overall numerical rating. Makes sense to consider risk along with tools. Basic scouting.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 14, 2016, 08:00:56 am
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php (http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php)

Transcript of a pretty detailed McLeod interview.  Don't think this was posted here before.


Some pretty detailed comments, I thought some of the stuff on Contreras and Underwood was insightful for me on how the Cubs view their development.  DelaCruz also.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 14, 2016, 11:37:31 am
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php (http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php)
Transcript of a pretty detailed McLeod interview.  Don't think this was posted here before.

"Willson Contreras stepping forward and having the year that he had last year. He’ll start the season in Triple-A and hopefully we’ll see him at some point during the 2016 season. Now it’s time for the other guys, an opportunity for them to step up.”

Love it.

I still think that if Contreras starts strong, we will see him in Chicago well before September in order to allow the Cubs to see if they can move Montero near the trade deadline for a nice return.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on February 14, 2016, 12:05:23 pm
In a year when you have a chance to go all the way, it would be quite risky to turn the primary catching duties over to a rookie.  I doubt there is a scenario where they try to move Montero.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 14, 2016, 01:33:56 pm
In a year when you have a chance to go all the way, it would be quite risky to turn the primary catching duties over to a rookie.  I doubt there is a scenario where they try to move Montero.

There was also a chance to go all the way in 2015, and we did not see the front office sacrifice the future in any way in order to marginally improve the team's chance in 2015.  If Contreras starts strong, does well in an early to mid-season callup, and appears to be handling duties behind the plate acceptably well, even if not as well as Montero, and another competing team needs a catcher and will provide nice prospects in return, I think you will see exactly such a scenario.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on February 14, 2016, 02:57:10 pm
I strongly doubt it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 14, 2016, 04:13:46 pm
Weren't you the one who also said there was no way Javier Baez was going to be considered for any real playing time in CF this year?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on February 14, 2016, 05:09:58 pm
Not sure.  If I did, I was wrong.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on February 14, 2016, 05:13:45 pm
"Willson Contreras stepping forward and having the year that he had last year. He’ll start the season in Triple-A and hopefully we’ll see him at some point during the 2016 season. Now it’s time for the other guys, an opportunity for them to step up.”

Love it.

I still think that if Contreras starts strong, we will see him in Chicago well before September in order to allow the Cubs to see if they can move Montero near the trade deadline for a nice return.

If Montero is going to bring a good return there is no shot the Cubs will move him UNLESS our season is a total disaster.

We are going for it this year. If Montero is playing well enough to bring a nice return, a competing Cubs team isn't trading their #1 catcher.  A Cubs team that underperforms and is out of contention would trade him.

If he isn't the #1 catcher, he isn't going to bring a nice return.

I am hoping that the Cubs don't trade Montero for a nice return.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 14, 2016, 05:32:44 pm
If Montero is going to bring a good return there is no shot the Cubs will move him UNLESS our season is a total disaster.

We are going for it this year. If Montero is playing well enough to bring a nice return, a competing Cubs team isn't trading their #1 catcher.  A Cubs team that underperforms and is out of contention would trade him.

If he isn't the #1 catcher, he isn't going to bring a nice return.

I am hoping that the Cubs don't trade Montero for a nice return.

If Montero is hitting at league average for his position, and is performing behind the plate as he has been, and a contending team which is over-performing in 2016 needs a catcher, whether he is "the #1 catcher" at that time, or whether Maddon intends on keeping him as the #1 catcher, will not be factors in determining his return, and if there are no other better catchers available, the Cubs could likely extract a very favorable return.  If that is combined with Contreras having had a good start and a good performance at bat and behind the plate, Montero becomes not only expendable, but presents the opportunity for a good return in trade.

Is that combination of factors likely?

No, just as it was not likely in 2015 that the Cubs got the kind of production they say from Schwarber, Bryant and Russell all at one time.

Things do happen, and if the combination of factors I mentioned happen in 2016, all of them being possible, it would not be at all surprising to see the Cubs move Montero for prospects.  I would actually be surprised if they failed to do so.  If the factors I set out are combined with Scharber doing well behind the plate in 2016, it would become even more likely.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 14, 2016, 08:29:21 pm
If Montero is going to bring a good return there is no shot the Cubs will move him UNLESS our season is a total disaster.

We are going for it this year. If Montero is playing well enough to bring a nice return, a competing Cubs team isn't trading their #1 catcher.  A Cubs team that underperforms and is out of contention would trade him.

If he isn't the #1 catcher, he isn't going to bring a nice return.

I am hoping that the Cubs don't trade Montero for a nice return.

I doubt that Montero will be traded, but trading him does not necessarily hurt the team's chances this year.  Suppose that Heyward is injured, out for the season.  If the Cubs feel that Contreras is capable of being the full time catcher, they might trade Montero for a center fielder and improve the team's chances to succeed.

He does not necessarily have to be traded for prospects.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on February 14, 2016, 09:22:14 pm
I doubt that Montero will be traded, but trading him does not necessarily hurt the team's chances this year.  Suppose that Heyward is injured, out for the season.  If the Cubs feel that Contreras is capable of being the full time catcher, they might trade Montero for a center fielder and improve the team's chances to succeed.

He does not necessarily have to be traded for prospects.

Respectfully, I will disagree.  I know that there have been playoff teams that have gone with a rookie catcher, but those occurrences are rare.  I don't recall a single playoff team trading a veteran catcher who is respected as a decent receiver (not fair to say pitch framer as that hasn't been tracked very long) to allow for a rookie to handle the staff.

If Montero is injured I believe that the Cubs would go with Contreras over Ross, but then Contreras wouldn't bring value in a trade.

If Heyward is injured I believe that the Cubs would look for an Austin Jackson type to handle the job rather than moving Montero for a CF.  Austin Jackson types are always available late in the season.

I stand by my previous comment that the only way Montero is traded for value is if the Cubs lay an egg this season.  Even then I question how much he will bring in a trade.  32 year old catcher who doesn't hit a ton, has an above average OBP, is considered average (at best) defensively and is signed for another season at $14 mil.  I'm thinking a B level prospect.

Best case scenario, IMHO, is that Contreras and Montero share the catching duties this season.  Hopefully Contreras does well and plays more often than Miggy.  I simply don't see the Cubs trading Montero (or getting value if we do trade him) unless we are junk this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2016, 09:41:13 am
Another top 100 prospect list...this one is from ZiPS projections.  There is no subjective input from scouts, just statistical projections.  So take it with a grain of salt.  That said, the Cubs still look pretty good on this list.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14780758/steven-matz-aj-reed-rank-highly-zips-top-100-prospects-list-mlb

26. Albert Almora
42. Willson Contreras
45. Gleyber Torres
56. Billy McKinney
62. Ian Happ
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on February 15, 2016, 12:27:08 pm
They aren't trading Montero in season unless they are out of the chase
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 15, 2016, 02:06:23 pm
They aren't trading Montero in season unless they are out of the chase

In 1964 some team in the middle of a pennant race traded a 27-year-old starting pitcher who just the year before had been their top starter, and got in return an entirely unproven no-power corner OFer who after two and a half seasons in the majors as a starter had an OPS+ below 90.... and yet somehow the trade worked out okay for the Cardinals, despite the replacement starter they had for Ernie Broglio being a 34-year-old pitcher who had lost more than 20 games for each of the prior two seasons.

The point is that it makes little sense to set down bright line rules for what teams can or can't, will or won't do in a pennant race regardless the circumstances.

In 1964 the Cardinals proved themselves quite wise in trading Broglio for Brock.  And, under the kind of circumstances I have suggested, it is entirely possible the Cubs might do what is not normal for a team in a pennant race.  (I have not even addressed the very reasonable possibility that Montero in 2016 is hitting more like he did in 2013 [83 OPS+] or 2014 [95 OPS+] instead of as he did in 2015 [106 OPS+, two points above his career average], in which case Maddon might be eager to have a younger, better hitting, catcher, particularly if Ross remains healthy and is able to provide needed defensive experience, factors which could still leave a catching hungry contending team willing to overpay for Montero.)

I am not saying Montero WILL be traded.  I am simply pointing out that the absolutist insistence that such a trade simply would not happen unless the Cubs have tanked or Montero is under-performing so badly that he would no longer really be a viable starting catcher anyway is a foolish position.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 15, 2016, 02:37:16 pm
Another top 100 prospect list...this one is from ZiPS projections.  There is no subjective input from scouts, just statistical projections.  So take it with a grain of salt.  That said, the Cubs still look pretty good on this list.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14780758/steven-matz-aj-reed-rank-highly-zips-top-100-prospects-list-mlb

26. Albert Almora
42. Willson Contreras
45. Gleyber Torres
56. Billy McKinney
62. Ian Happ

Surprising that Almora scores so high in the statistical ranking, as he did to varying degree in another one.  (Katoh?)  In his case it would seem that his CF defense would make his actual rating stronger than a stats-based one, since I wouldn't think a stats-based eval could do full justice to defense.  Perhaps speaks to how sensitive the stats-based rankings are to K-rates, and age-per-level. 

If I'm assuming that computer-formula evals might struggle with defensive valuation, I wonder if they also perhaps struggle with power.  Maybe real scouts look at Almora and conclude "will never have power"; but perhaps computer-formula doesn't count power against him as badly, and doesn't realize that his actual swing doesn't have the future-power projection that other kids his age with comparably modest power-stats do have? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on February 15, 2016, 03:12:21 pm
Surprising that Almora scores so high in the statistical ranking, as he did to varying degree in another one.  (Katoh?)  In his case it would seem that his CF defense would make his actual rating stronger than a stats-based one, since I wouldn't think a stats-based eval could do full justice to defense.  Perhaps speaks to how sensitive the stats-based rankings are to K-rates, and age-per-level. 

If I'm assuming that computer-formula evals might struggle with defensive valuation, I wonder if they also perhaps struggle with power.  Maybe real scouts look at Almora and conclude "will never have power"; but perhaps computer-formula doesn't count power against him as badly, and doesn't realize that his actual swing doesn't have the future-power projection that other kids his age with comparably modest power-stats do have? 

Or perhaps the ZIPS projections are an illustration of the GIGO principle.

Merely because someone comes up with a "stats-based" formula and spits out a bunch of projections doesn't mean they have any value.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 15, 2016, 05:00:52 pm
Another team prospects ratings, this one from Fangraphs. Cubs at #17.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-farm-system-rankings/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 16, 2016, 12:57:57 pm
http://media.baseballamerica.com/mp3/free/160215.mp3

BA Podcast talking about how they come up with their rankings and evals of players.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 18, 2016, 10:42:30 pm
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/theo-epstein-talks-cubs-and-rotisserie-baseball-on-siriusxm-fantasy-baseball.php (http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/theo-epstein-talks-cubs-and-rotisserie-baseball-on-siriusxm-fantasy-baseball.php)

Theo, on Contreras and Almora:
"...Great blocker, really strong throwing arm, has a chance to be a force defensively. ....is going to be, I think, a really productive offensive catcher to go along with his throwing arm. Obviously catching development takes time and you need your opportunity. .... "

"Albert Almora...’s just starting to figure out his approach. Added a lot, the right kind of muscle this winter. I just saw him taking BP yesterday and was mishitting balls out of the ballpark and smoking balls all over the field. The ball is coming off his bat a little bit differently than it has in previous years. ....”
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on February 19, 2016, 01:27:01 am
Sounds like the 'everything's golden in spring training' virus has afflicted Theo.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on February 19, 2016, 01:27:07 am
Everyone's a blue-chipper in February...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on February 19, 2016, 02:51:40 am
I can see Contreras being an above average everyday catcher fairly soon but Ill be surprised if Almora's ever anything more than Sam Fuld.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on February 22, 2016, 06:55:34 am
In case this interview with Almora hasn't been posted:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160216&content_id=164359464&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 24, 2016, 12:34:53 pm
Jim Callis did a twitter Q&A on the Cubs top 30.  MLB.com is rating the Cubs #11 on org rankings.  That seems more reasonable than Law or BA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 24, 2016, 01:58:06 pm
I think some of you made reference to BA's stuff.  I received BA's Prospect Handbook last week.  Has some interesting stuff on Cubs prospects, and some names that were ranked at spots we might not have expected.  Included were:
Blackburn at #19.  Made reference to touching 92-94 semi-regularly, which seems faster than we've usually heard.  I'm guessing that's false, but if he could somehow magically turn into having a perfectly average fastball velocity, he'd look pretty interesting given his control and ground ball stuff. 
Dave Berg at #30. 
Clifton at like #17 or #18, they think he's got probably the highest ceiling outside of the top ten.
Sands:  they say the Cubs think his mediocre fastball still has a chance to get faster with some mechanical adjustment.  He'll be 21 already this season, so it's not like he's that young.  But he's like a college junior, so I suppose it's not unprecedented for a college junior to add a little bit of speed in their draft year.  Not real common, but it would be fun should it happen.
Markey:  have him in low 20's, really like his curveball. 
Stinnett:  He's a mystery to everybody, it seems.  Had a good fastball, a good slider, and good control one year; then gone the next.  Who knows what this year will show? 

The reason the BA list didn't have Cubs very high is that Torres was the only Cub in any of their top-50's, and usually more in the 40's, maybe one in the 30's.   And, they didn't have high ceilings for many of the Cubs.  I think Torres was the only guy they gave a 60 to, the rest, even a guy like Eloy or Cease or DelaCruz, I think were 55's or 50's.  Other teams ranked ahead of them got more 60's and 65's.  Can't say I disagree, really.  If cats like Almora or McKinney are in your upper group, or Contreras, those aren't really ≥60 guys.  I had thought maybe people like Cease, delaCruz, Eloy, EJ Martinez might be scoring higher, and I think those guys do have some pretty high ceilings.  But it's as we've all known, most of the high-ceilings haven't hit A-ball yet. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 24, 2016, 02:11:05 pm
Callis:  https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on February 24, 2016, 02:16:18 pm
BA podcast was really interesting to listen to it with their rankings.

1.) They consider themselves writers, not scouts.  JJ Cooper made the point that seeing the players only helps them to ask questions to scouts/managers about players.  Cooper also mentioned he feels he is good enough now at his job that he doesn't need to see the players. Cooper/Manuel/Badler and one other guy are the ones that do the top 100 list.  Other guys may do the org top 30 rankings.
2.) Obviously scouts are going to to have different opinions about players.  The scouts/managers that BA gives weight to do not like the Cubs prospects.
3.) Blackburn at 92-94 with his 2 seam would be great.  I doubt that is where he is.
4.) There has been significant velocity increases with reguards to prospects.  Sands by all accounts is in the low 90's, that is now an average fastball.
5.) Didn't Stinnett end up with some injury issues that effected him last year?  I think in the legs maybe?

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 24, 2016, 03:49:49 pm
I haven't heard of any specific injury with Stinnett, but any time a pitcher loses 4 MPH on his fastball, injury is usually the best bet.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on February 24, 2016, 04:56:13 pm
BA podcast was really interesting to listen to it with their rankings.

1.) They consider themselves writers, not scouts.  JJ Cooper made the point that seeing the players only helps them to ask questions to scouts/managers about players.  Cooper also mentioned he feels he is good enough now at his job that he doesn't need to see the players. Cooper/Manuel/Badler and one other guy are the ones that do the top 100 list.  Other guys may do the org top 30 rankings.
2.) Obviously scouts are going to to have different opinions about players.  The scouts/managers that BA gives weight to do not like the Cubs prospects...


What they said in podcast is that guys at AA or higher with tools get bumps. One example they gave was that if A.J. Reed had stayed in fast-A all season he would have ranked in the 40s (instead of 11) but that his successful partial stint in AA moved him up quite a bit.  Think {me} that this is explanation for BA overall Cubs ranking. Not a lot of guys at upper levels, yet.

Said viewed themselves as "reporters" (didn't say "writers"). They are not formally trained as scouts, obviously--so don't call themselves scouts, which is a term of art.  But, podcast if replete with observations about different players and use of video. JJ Cooper said he has seen about 50 plate appearances of Reed, for example, and Ben Badler eyeballed Yaisel Sierra about 150 PAs personally.  The use of video has changed scouting a lot, by the way.  Clubs use advance scouts less than previous years thanks to video availability.  Big part of evaluation these days.

Said in podcast that impossible for area scouts to see everybody.  BA is more like a group of crosscheckers who use information from other sources, along with personal observation.  Did not say in podcast that use observations "only" to ask questions but use as a tool with other information.  As an example, talked lots about player makeup and how years of contact with a given coach or manager helps them to assess manager's observations about a player. 

So, as a counterpoint, Keith Law has a scouting background but one person cannot possible see and evaluate guys the way having a ton of sources can do--managers, coaches, other scouts.  My take is that BA is like a national political reporting staff with contacts of insiders, knowledgeable folks talking off the record, and getting big picture, along with benefits of a reporter's years of experience and expertise in his/her field.  In the end, it's about judgment.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on February 24, 2016, 04:57:36 pm
I heard that Stinnett's delivery was changed significantly last year compared to at Maryland, to ill effect. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on February 27, 2016, 12:46:20 pm
Just looking over the 40 man roster.  One guy that has fallen so far off the radar that he doesn't even draw a rare mention is Alcantara.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on February 27, 2016, 05:42:02 pm
Did Craig badmouth him?   Actually, I was a fan, but Alcantara has taken himself off the radar.  He's become a stealth player.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 01, 2016, 02:51:58 pm
Eddy Julio Martinez BP video  from Cubs Den

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/03/eddy-julio-martinez-takes-bp/

Seems to have a very quiet swing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on March 01, 2016, 09:50:46 pm
I hope he was trying to go to right as a majority of the hits appeared to go to right. I wasn't overly impressed with his swing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 02, 2016, 09:27:59 am
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-duane-underwood-jr-lost-weight-20160302-story.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on March 14, 2016, 01:22:22 pm
Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat  29m29 minutes ago
Maddon said Underwood was held back because of some stiffness in right elbow. #Cubs

Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat  30m30 minutes ago
#Cubs Maddon likes Underwood a lot. Needs to develop fastball command. "When you get a guy that good, that young, you don't push it"
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2016, 07:58:41 pm
Somehow we missed posting Chris Crawford's top-10 list from BP. Quite different looking than the others amassed so far.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28626
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 17, 2016, 12:30:58 pm
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/coachs-video-view-dylan-cease/#Okq05Zg4JpD4xcRY.97

Some video and game report on Dylan Cease. Still very fast, still variably wild. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on March 17, 2016, 01:14:35 pm
Most exciting prospect in the system.  Not the best, but the most exciting.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on March 17, 2016, 04:11:01 pm
The only pitcher in the system with elite potential.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 17, 2016, 04:21:54 pm
http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/17/eddy-julio-martinez-international-man-of-mystery/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on March 17, 2016, 05:30:31 pm
Arizona Phil covering three games simultaneously.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/03172016/cubs-play-triple-header-ball-riverview-park#more
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 17, 2016, 05:52:45 pm
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen  2h2 hours ago
John Arguello Retweeted FullCountTommy
Big fan of all 3. Steele got a lotta love yesterday, Stinnett's stuff already looks better right now than last year
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 17, 2016, 07:46:12 pm
https://twitter.com/CaliKusiolek

Had Stinnett touching 96.  Had a bp pic of Jiminez.  Nice looking swing. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on March 17, 2016, 08:09:09 pm
https://twitter.com/CaliKusiolek

Had Stinnett touching 96.  Had a bp pic of Jiminez.  Nice looking swing. 

This guy would be a champ at scouting buzzword bingo.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2016, 05:10:20 am
AzPhil reports on a South Bend/Myrtle Beach game last night which included a long Jimenez homer and a Dillon Maples sighting.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/03182016/eloy-no-joy-bees-riverview-park
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 18, 2016, 08:26:22 am
AzPhil reports on a South Bend/Myrtle Beach game last night which included a long Jimenez homer and a Dillon Maples sighting.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/03182016/eloy-no-joy-bees-riverview-park (http://www.thecubreporter.com/03182016/eloy-no-joy-bees-riverview-park)

Clifton and Alzolay were both good.  Arguello has said Alzolay has looked good other times he's seen him, too. 

Favorable report on both Stinnett and Steele. 

Some poster on CubsDen who the others seem to respect as being pretty knowledgeable about pitching said that Blackburn had looked unexpectedly good when he saw hims a few days ago.  He's always been a guy who seemed to be a pretty good pitcher, but didn't have enough velocity or curve-ball consistency to get much prospect traction.  Would be cool if some little adjustment enabled him to throw 2 mph faster without compromising his fastball command, and turned the curve into more of a K-pitch. 

A lot of the Myrtle guys, they were all reasonably effective, but other than Underwood none had the velocity, or the sizzle or high-K rates, to get much traction as big-league prospects.  I wonder whether with another year of development, and with a new pitching coordinator, whether one or two might perhaps throw a little harder this year, or have a little sharper break or more consistency with breaking ball so that the K's go up.  Add 1-2 mph to rest velocity, add 3 mph to "touches" velocity, maybe throw those high-speed pitches 3-4 times per game instead of 3-4 times per month, maybe get more K's with the improved breaking ball?  Maybe sustained/improved success in AA when you're not far off, while having modestly improved scouting reports, might raise stock variably?  Perhaps have more value in a trade?  Perhaps merit more consideration for back-of-rotation in a future post Hammel or Lackey? 


One of the early reported Derek Johnson concepts was that he didn't want young pitchers overthrowing a velocity band where they could command.  Both for control reasons, consistency reasons, and health reasons.  If a guy's "control band" was 88-90 one year, even though he had the physical strength to throw harder, perhaps with a new year he can command the higher range, and could now use his 90-92 velocity regularly without compromising control?  Or perhaps new coordinator doesn't have the same philosophy, and wants guys to throw harder, so guys will have higher velocity and perhaps improved scouting, even if it may not help their actual control or effectiveness?  But might boost trade value as a result?  Or maybe when a guy is reaching upper minors, the cautions on throwing too hard are removed, and guys who were told to work in the 88-91 range will let it rip more and will be hitting 91-93 a lot more often?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2016, 09:04:45 am

A lot of the Myrtle guys, they were all reasonably effective, but other than Underwood none had the velocity, or the sizzle or high-K rates, to get much traction as big-league prospects.  I wonder whether with another year of development, and with a new pitching coordinator, whether one or two might perhaps throw a little harder this year, or have a little sharper break or more consistency with breaking ball so that the K's go up.  Add 1-2 mph to rest velocity, add 3 mph to "touches" velocity, maybe throw those high-speed pitches 3-4 times per game instead of 3-4 times per month, maybe get more K's with the improved breaking ball?  Maybe sustained/improved success in AA when you're not far off, while having modestly improved scouting reports, might raise stock variably?  Perhaps have more value in a trade?  Perhaps merit more consideration for back-of-rotation in a future post Hammel or Lackey? 


They'd better hurry considering Hammel's in his last year and Lackey won't be there more than two. All the sniffing around for Ross, Carrasco, Salazar, Miller, and Tehran showed the FO knows it has no replacements for those guys. Something is going to have to happen, whether it's at the deadline or after this season. They really need TWO good, cost-controlled pitchers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 18, 2016, 10:08:05 am
Yes.  Everybody was all happy with getting Lackey, and it being "only two years".  But, only two years means it's only two years, and he'll need to be replaced very soon. 

A note:  Cubs do have an option on Hammel.  The assumption has been that the Cubs will want to dump him after the season, if not sooner.  But there's also the possibility that he'll be just fine, and that the adjustments that he's made will enable him to better-sustain the first-half decency he's shown these last two seasons.  There's a fair chance that if some of the rising pitchers do look encouraging this year, that extending Hammel for one more year would give the Cubs more time and the prospects more time to be ready.  So, that could in effect provide two years of opportunity for guys to sink-or-swim as give-them-a-shot rotation guys. 

I'm not very expectant that any of the Tseng-Blackburn-Skulina-Underwood-Torres-Martinez-Zastrysny-Null-Williams-Johnson type guys are ever going to be rotation-worthy.  But if any of them ever are, it should be pretty manifest within the next two years or less.  Certainly won't take more than two. 

Even South Bend guys Clifton and Stinnett, pretty good chance that in the unlikely but hypothetical event that if either is ever going to be guys you want in the rotation, that two more years should be enough time to demonstrate that worth. 

Obviously for the short-season guys (Cease, DelaCruz, Alzolay, Hudson), their time-line doesn't match with Lackey/Hammel replacement.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on March 18, 2016, 10:12:55 am
Craig, with the devastation that the Cubs will wreak on baseball this year, pitchers will be coming to the Cubs for free!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2016, 01:29:22 pm
I had forgotten about Hammel's option. I'm not sure two years for both him and Lackey would make much of a difference though. I don't see the Cubs taking chances on unproven rookies with less than supreme (Prior/Strasburg/Harvey) talent while having this kind of roster already built. Perhaps one if they can get a Carrasco or Ross and he blossoms. Even then I think it's questionable.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 18, 2016, 01:46:28 pm
I wouldn't group Underwood in with Tseng/Blackburn/Skulina/Torres/Martinez/Zastrynzy/Null/Williams.  I would have Johnson ahead of that group.  That said Williams is interesting as a possible Hendricks type of guy.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 21, 2016, 12:44:06 pm
Jason McLeod talks prospects with Jesse Rogers:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/36972/jason-mcleod-qa-pitcher-dylan-cease-is-a-lottery-ticket
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on March 21, 2016, 01:00:38 pm
Jason McLeod talks prospects with Jesse Rogers:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/36972/jason-mcleod-qa-pitcher-dylan-cease-is-a-lottery-ticket
Those guys are always reppin.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 21, 2016, 01:29:15 pm
Thanks, Chris, nice article. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on March 21, 2016, 02:10:23 pm
Somebody has been watching March Madness.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 22, 2016, 09:20:49 am
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/168371016/cubs-prospect-ian-happ-misses-sharing-with-dad

Happ's father died last October.  Said Schwarber invited him to live with him and workout with him over the winter. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on March 24, 2016, 10:54:56 am
Another Dillon Maples sighting from the futures game yesterday:

Quote
Dillon Maples also pitched a scoreless inning, striking out three.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 24, 2016, 11:02:50 am
Nick J. Faleris ‏@NickJFaleris  14h14 hours ago
@CubsDen By end of year folks will wonder how he got to the Cubs at 9th overall.

John Arguello ‏@CubsDen  15h15 hours ago
John Arguello Retweeted Eric Longenhagen
Probably the quickest bat among Cubs prospects right now.

Ian Happ deposits a belt high slider into the catering area about 420 feet away. Bat head gets into the zone fast.


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 24, 2016, 12:49:11 pm
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/03/cubs-notes-happ-caratini-hr-in-futures-game-cubs-lose-mlb-game-notespics-from-backfields/#image/1

Here's is some more info on the future's game and backfields from yesterday.  Included is a fan video of Happ's HR.

Some of the more interesting
-Longenhagen had Maples low to mid-90's and he junked the curve for a slider.
-Blackburn was 89-92
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2016, 12:10:06 am
Broadcast vid of Happ's homer:

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/video/topic/26663958/v562464983/chctex-happ-drills-a-solo-home-run-to-right-field
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on March 25, 2016, 10:04:46 am
Broadcast vid of Happ's homer:

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/video/topic/26663958/v562464983/chctex-happ-drills-a-solo-home-run-to-right-field

Nice swing.... but I really hate that red stripe under the armpits on those blue uniforms.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 25, 2016, 10:17:48 am
Yeah, very nice looking swing.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 25, 2016, 10:18:52 am
Run down of non Candelario/Torres/Contreras prospects in the spring

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/03/beyond-contreras-and-candelario-20-cubs-prospects-on-the-rise/
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 25, 2016, 02:15:36 pm
Thanks, Blue, that's really interesting article to get comments on some less famous guys. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2016, 07:15:59 pm
From Cubs Den

Hudson 90-91 T 94. Curve looked good
Cease. 97-98.  T 99
Maples 95, threw his curve for strikes
McNeil 4 seam T 95 (Arguella was surprised by this) 2 seam upper 80's
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2016, 03:20:31 pm
Cubs Den is reporting Underwood is throwing live BP today.  I believe he had been out all spring with elbow pain (get him to Driveline this offseason).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on March 29, 2016, 05:13:55 pm
Cubs paid 12 of the top 40 international signing bonuses in 2015 for non-Cuban international players. And, Eddy Julio Martinez was sixth highest Cuban bonus paid.

From BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-40-international-bonuses-of-2015/#4WEYh183dwEQJPbL.97
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ray on March 29, 2016, 05:34:18 pm
Wow. I was dissapointed with the lack of pizzazz in cubs class but after seeing that, hard to not be happy with it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on March 29, 2016, 07:41:27 pm
Those guys sum to $16.6M.  With tax, that's around $30M. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on March 29, 2016, 08:47:06 pm
I can't remember the rules exactly, but a large chunk of the money going to the Mexican player won't count against the pool. I believe it is around something like 80% goes to the team and only the part that goes to the player counts against the cap.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on March 29, 2016, 08:55:40 pm
There were a bunch of minor league cuts today. Austyn Willis was the biggest surprise to me. Good size and reasonable numbers through 2 seasons as a high school signing. Anyone know anything? 

Matt Brazis, RHP
Yomar Morel, RHP
Santiago Rodriguez, RHP
Austyn Willis, RHP
Heath Dwyer, LHP
Nick Greenwood, LHP
Sam Wilson, LHP
Jordan Hankins, C
Matt Clark, 1B
Donnie Cimino, OF
Jonathan Mota, SS (voluntarily retired, appears to be coaching in Cubs’ system now)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 01, 2016, 03:43:13 pm
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-reviews-chicago-cubs-2015/#j2RKRDtdaUlGefrl.97

BA's notes on the Cubs international signings.  Subscribers only. 

Some listings of names and prices, and comments about several of the players, is available here: 
http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7&p=14040#p14040
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 04, 2016, 08:47:44 am
http://www.thecubreporter.com/03312016/2016-cubs-minor-league-camp-rosters-updated

What Phil has for roster stuff.  Significant news:
1.  Oscar DeLaCruz is out with an elbow injury
2.  Jeremy Null is in extended spring training group. 
3.  If Phil's rosters from Thursday carry over, it looks like Tennesse rotation would include probably Blackburn, Tseng, Skulina, Zastrysny, and Markey. 
4.  If phil's rosters stick, Martinez and Torrez are both back at Myrtle again, and David Berg is at Myrtle.  Myrtle's rotation might then include:
Clifton, Stinnett, Martinez, Leal, and perhaps either Norwood or some various roster filler (Hedges?  Thorpe?)  I think I've read that Torrez is going to be all bullpen from now on. 
5.  Phil has Happ at Myrtle.  Dewees and Martinez both at south Bend. 
6.  Cease at boise.
7.  SB rotation might include Steele, Sands, Morrison, Kellogg, and maybe one or more from the Alzolay/Twomey/Paulino/Araujo pool. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 04, 2016, 10:10:16 am
-Torrez is in the bullpen and hitting up to 96 from a low arm angle.

-De La Cruz is supposed to be rehabbing, but I guess we will see.

-Berg I've heard got caught in a numbers game, but he may not be at MB long.

- Is Norwood starting or in the bullpen?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 04, 2016, 03:07:52 pm
https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/717050329829867520/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

South Bend Roster. 
*No Happ, so he really is Myrtle.
*EJ Martinez made it, and Eloy and Dewees.  Dewees will turn 23 before the season is over; hopefully he'll have hit his way well beyond South Bend well before then.  Thought he might skip up to Myrtle. 
*As expected Cease is NOT at South bend. 
*Norwood got dropped down to South Bend. 
*I'd thought Morrison might skip to Myrtle, given his age/experience/command and his dominance at Boise.  But he's starting here at South Bend. 
*19-year-old infielder Carlos Sepulveda skipped up to South Bend.  Kind of a surprise.  He and Eloy are the only teenagers on the roster.  Sepulveda was a contact hitting guy for Mesa last summer.  Not sure if he's got big-league possibilities or not, but having a teenager skip past Eugene straight to full-season is unusual. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 04, 2016, 03:14:59 pm
https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/717055610538356736/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Tennessee roster. 
*No surprises. 
*As expected Candelario is AA, not Iowa. 
*Candelario, Zagunis, McKinney, and Caratini are probably the interesting players.
*A lot of 24-and-older guys on that roster.  Not real young.
*21's:  McKinney, Tseng, Penalver
*22's:  Blackburn, Caratini, Candelario
*Likely rotation (my guess, no actual info):  Blackburn, Markey, Skulina, Tseng, Zastryzny
*Andury Acevedo, the hard-throwin reliever they got, is at AA. 
*As Az Phil had observed, Torrez and Martinez did not move up from Myrtle Beach, nor Jeremy Null
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 04, 2016, 04:08:48 pm
Myrtle Beach roster:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160404&content_id=170403366&vkey=pr_t521&fext=.jsp&sid=t521
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 04, 2016, 04:40:03 pm
South Bend roster in PDF:

http://www.milb.com/documents/5/5/0/170411550/South_Bend_Roster_404_0vizzmha.pdf
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on April 04, 2016, 05:43:01 pm
That Smokies roster seems pretty ordinary.

I guess having some of the players we've had recently has spoiled me.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 04, 2016, 06:07:10 pm
I believe Phil said that Null is at extended spring training.  No explanation given.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 05, 2016, 10:25:49 am
Myrtle Beach roster:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160404&content_id=170403366&vkey=pr_t521&fext=.jsp&sid=t521

The author there assumes Torrez is for rotation again, but assuming what Blue and Arguello said, that he's over to relief, I wonder who will fill out their rotation?  I wonder whether it's actually a given that Martinez is still rotation, too?  Seems like he's been capable at that level before, and is a strike-thrower, but not sure he's got enough arm to sustain velocity needed for big-league starter.  Might be the type of guy whose big-league hopes (if any) hinge on getting a big velocity spike while throwing short relief.  Interesting that Maples is moving up to Myrtle.  I've kind of forgotten about him, and guys with no control tend to make themselves forgettable.  But he's clearly he's got plenty of arm, and plenty of "heavy" on his fastball.  In a good system, sometimes guys unexpectedly pop out, and you can never have too many good relief prospects. 

But for Myrtle, I'm seeing really only Clifton, Stinnett, and probably Martinez as the guys with obvious expectation to be rotation.  I'm guessing Erick Leal will probably get another shot in rotation as the #4 guys, he's just turned 21 last month, and he's touches into the low 90's for velocity, and he finished last summer very well, so I expect he'll probably be rotation for at least a while longer.  Is seem to recall an Az Phil note this spring in which he was pitching rotation-stretch innings in one of the games this spring.  That would leave the 5th spot for who knows who; Hedges, Thorpe, Ihrig.  They seem to like to have the token lefties even in the minors, so maybe just to mix it up with the righties a finesse lefty will start?  Hedges started all year last year, so maybe they'll just status-quo and keep him in rotation. 

I'm a little curious whether there's any chance that they'd start Ryan McNeil, the 3rd-rounder from the Almora/Blackburn/Underwood draft?  He pitched entirely in relief last season, but that was kind of coming back after the surgery.  They used him as a long reliever, often going 2 or 3 innings, which isn't super routine.  So I was curious whether they were doing that to very much control his innings and schedule his work during his first full-year back, and whether if they like his stuff well enough whether he might perhaps get bumped into rotation this year?  That would be kind of fun.  He was erratic last year, control somewhat spotty, but 24 walks in 61 innings isn't exactly show-stopper wild like Maples has been or Cease.  I suspect he's relief, though; I seem to recall Arguello or Phil mentioning him this spring, and if it was as a starter I'd probably have remembered.  I do recall Arguello with a couple of notes that McNeil has been been a lot of 94-95 with his 4-seam, and pretty consistently throws hard, I think Arguello said he hadn't seen him throw anything less than 85 in his views this camp.  Which I guess would speak to being relief-focused; anybody for rotation they always push the change up very heavily as a necessary rotation pitch. 

Wouldn't surprise me if Myrtle's rotation didn't stay the same for real long.  If Preston Morrison has success at South Bend, which seems pretty likely given the kind of hitting inexperience typical there, I'd imagine he'd set himself up for a Myrtle promotion before end of May.  And who knows with jeremy Null; perhaps with his arm issues he's cooked for good.  But if he's ready in a couple of weeks, and if they are still optimistic about his future, he might fill a Myrtle spot again, too. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 06, 2016, 04:11:56 pm
Myrtle Beach opens tonight. Stinnett gets the start.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 06, 2016, 05:01:28 pm
Az Phil thinks Null will be Myrtle 5th starter, but he got behind and will just keep working for a bit in XST. 

Are any other going today, or the rest all starting tomorrow? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2016, 05:03:44 pm
Smokies start tomorrow.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 06, 2016, 06:17:23 pm
Pelicans the only game today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 06, 2016, 07:10:21 pm
Stinnett throws 4 hitless, runless innings.  No walks.  6 strike outs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 06, 2016, 07:18:28 pm
Of the 6 outs that weren't K's, 5 were groundouts.  Very nice start. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on April 06, 2016, 08:05:11 pm
We need to have some of these non-prospect "prospect" pitchers do well so we can trade them in June/July.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 06, 2016, 08:23:30 pm
Stinnett throws 4 hitless, runless innings.  No walks.  6 strike outs.

Thorpe follows with 5 innings of 1 hit, runless innings.  2 walks.  9 strike outs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 06, 2016, 08:26:58 pm
Perhaps Charleston is just anemic offensively.

Happ & Torres: 0-8, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_06_myrafa_crdafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 07, 2016, 11:08:00 am
The Stinnett/Thorpe game was actually an exhibition game, not a true Carolina League game.  Charleston is one level lower, in the South Atlantic League (equivalent to the Midwest League level). 

So, Stinnett's beautiful line will not go onto his statistical record, nor will Happ and Torres hitless count against them.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 07, 2016, 12:49:24 pm
Ah, that makes sense. Couldn't figure out why there was one game when normally they all begin on Thursday.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 07, 2016, 02:58:26 pm
I just noticed that also.  Too bad. 

Regardless, It was nice to see 4 innings without a walk.  Too bad we didn't have gun readings on the pitchers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 07, 2016, 04:39:01 pm
Ryan Williams gets killed in his first start of the season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 07, 2016, 06:24:01 pm
Vogelbach: 2-3, RBI, BB, K

Contreras: 2-4, PB,  2-4 SBA

Almora: 0-2, SF, RBI, BB, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_07_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 07, 2016, 09:03:44 pm
Not sure how it effected the game but it has been extremely windy in Des Moines/Omaha since the weekend.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 07, 2016, 09:39:47 pm
Happ: 0-4, E

Torres: 1-4, 2B, RBI, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_07_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Caratini: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_07_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, 3B, RBI

Martinez: 2-4, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_07_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 08, 2016, 01:24:30 am
Article on Eloy Jimenez who sounds like a sharp guy:

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sports/professional/sbcubs/work-sets-up-leap-for-south-bend-cubs-jimenez/article_2760f8a7-54ec-5623-bb54-86fb7d56d6fd.html


And a bit on Eddy Julio Martinez:

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sports/professional/sbcubs/expectations-are-high-for-sb-cubs-martinez/article_8b26808c-e5c5-5a82-8416-7b1b0dd3a02c.html


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 08, 2016, 06:07:21 am
Article on Eloy Jimenez who sounds like a sharp guy:

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sports/professional/sbcubs/work-sets-up-leap-for-south-bend-cubs-jimenez/article_2760f8a7-54ec-5623-bb54-86fb7d56d6fd.html



It's always nice to see power production improve while K's drop.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 08, 2016, 09:50:02 am
Thanks for the Eloy and Eddy articles. 

Early on when Martinez was getting over-hyped as a superstar prospect, part of that was the Andruw Jones comp, whose CF gift was his most standout quality.  So interesting that Martinez is playing right and Dewees center.  I know Eddy has the best RF arm, and neither Eloy nor Dewees profiles as a RFer, so for South Bend Nowacrat purposes Eddy in right makes sense. 

But, I'd think if the Cubs really saw Eddy as having plus Jones-esque CF defense, Almora-with-speed, I don't think they'd be putting him in right to accommodate Dewees.  As reb notes, lesser guys move around to accommodate the greater ones.  So I deduce that while Eddy may have some CF ability, I don't think CF-defense is going to be exceptional or a major plus quality. 

I wonder if he might be something of a Heyward-type.  Very good RF who could play some good CF, but doesn't really profile as a top CF.  Some power, but not really a HR-slugger. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2016, 10:17:49 am
Dewees, Ejoy and Eddy are all decent prospects so I'm not sure it says anything about Eddy's CF defense.

Dewees likely only has a lot of value in CF, as a LF he may not have the power so I think it makes sense to try him there and see if the arm can play or not.  If Martinez has the physical tools for CF playing RF shouldn't hamper it too much.  Almora and Hannerham would switch between CF/LF at AA last year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 08, 2016, 12:41:40 pm
Dewees, Ejoy and Eddy are all decent prospects so I'm not sure it says anything about Eddy's CF defense.   Dewees likely only has a lot of value in CF, as a LF he may not have the power so I think it makes sense to try him there and see if the arm can play or not.  If Martinez has the physical tools for CF playing RF shouldn't hamper it too much.  Almora and Hannerham would switch between CF/LF at AA last year.

Not sure Almora gets the prospect-value he's got if he's going to be a right fielder.  Dewees doesn't have the arm to be a high-end CFer, and from some of what I've heard it's actually surprising that his jumps and routes are decently/reasonably CFer-ish, as opposed to bad-for-a-CF.  Maybe someday he can hit enough to become a Fowler, but my understanding is that nobody projects Dewees to ever be above 50th percentile defensively in center. 

I guess I'm just kind of reacting to some of the Eddy stuff that was perhaps inflated:  Law saying he could be a 5-tool CFer who could be 1.1 in the draft; others comping his game and toolset to Andruw Jones.  I'm just saying that if the Cubs seem him as Andruw Jones, or 1.1, or Ken griffey-esque, or any of that stuff, teams wouldn't be playing him in RF to accommodate Donnie Dewees, a nice 2nd rounder in A- who'll turn 23 this September.  Eddy's a nice prospect and has a chance to become a useful player; but he's probably not a either a gold-glove CFer or a superstar prospect. 


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2016, 12:52:29 pm
I think the Cubs like Dewees bat a lot for a CF.  If he can put up above league average offense and play an average CF he would be pretty still a pretty decent.  The bat isn't that great in the corners.

The Almora/Hanneham was an example of the better prospect moving for a lesser prospect.  I would imagine that Martinez will get some time in CF as well.  The chances that Martinez is super good is low, but that goes for most any prospect, even the guys that get picked 1.1.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on April 08, 2016, 01:32:49 pm
Yeah, I'm with Craig here.  Almora's prospect value is modest to begin with, but move him out of CF and it's borderline minimal.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2016, 01:35:48 pm
People undervalue Almora.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on April 08, 2016, 01:52:29 pm
Yes, yes they do.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 08, 2016, 02:07:11 pm
....The Almora/Hanneham was an example of the better prospect moving for a lesser prospect.  I would imagine that Martinez will get some time in CF as well.  The chances that Martinez is super good is low, but that goes for most any prospect, even the guys that get picked 1.1.

Heh, based on one game in South Bend, it's premature to say what the long-term usage will be.  Maybe Eddy will play the next 60 games in center, beats me.  But, my premise is that they are projecting to use Dewees as primary CFer, and Eddy as primary RF on that team. 

I don't think the Almora/Hanneman example is highly relevant.  They didn't really move Almora off of CF, unless I'm misremembering.  Both played some center, both played some corner, and this was in the upper minors after years of practice playing center for Almora.  To me, that seemed to be standard for upper-level guys:  have them share positions so that they are positions flexible, particular in the case of Almora/Hanneman whose big-league usage if/when they reach the Cubs may be as 4th outfielder, where they need to be multi-positional.  They new Almora was completely capable in center; but his chance to serve the big-league team would benefit by getting some action in the corners.  But it's seemed like they haven't started multi-positioning guys until the high minors and until they were pretty close to reaching the majors, for the Bryant, Schwarber, Baez, Soler type guys of the organization.  They haven't seemed to prioritize that during the first week in pro ball, as is the case with Eddy.   So, I don't think the Almora/Hanneman CF/corner rotation is really precedent in the hypothetical that Eddy plays almost all right and Dewees almost all center while they share South Bend. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on April 08, 2016, 02:15:59 pm
Almora needs to work on his hitting.  I'm fine with leaving him exclusively in CF for now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Cubsin on April 08, 2016, 02:21:17 pm
I don't think playing RF in one game means anything concerning EJM's future defensive position. DeWeese in older and didn't lose any time escaping from Cuba, establishing residency elsewhere and obtaining a U.S. visa. Looking at DeWeese in CF first makes sense to me.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2016, 02:25:08 pm
Maybe I'm over value Dewees, but to me Martinez/Dewees/Jimenez are all pretty close in prospect value.

That said, I have no clue how good Martinez could or will be.  I think we'll have a better idea after this year.  I wouldn't say he can't play CF if he doesn't this year, just because Dewees will have much more value if he can fake it in center.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on April 08, 2016, 02:57:16 pm
I don't think we know enough about Martinez yet to even speculate on what his real value might be.  But to me Jimenez' hit tool is the single most valuable thing any of our OF prospects have going for them.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 08, 2016, 03:22:08 pm
Maybe I'm over value Dewees, but to me Martinez/Dewees/Jimenez are all pretty close in prospect value.

That said, I have no clue how good Martinez could or will be.  I think we'll have a better idea after this year.  I wouldn't say he can't play CF if he doesn't this year, just because Dewees will have much more value if he can fake it in center.

I tend to agree with that.  Although there is probably more uncertainty with respect to Dewees, I believe that this administration has a much more positive view of Dewees than most of us on this board.  To me, it looks as if McLeod went in to the draft intending to pick underslot picks in the first three picks, and use the money to go after overslot pitchers in rounds 4 through 7, as he did the previous year.  But he scrapped that when he found Dewees available in the second round just too tempting to pass up.  The availability of Wilson in the third round completed the change of direction.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 08, 2016, 06:13:01 pm
Maybe I'm over value Dewees, but to me Martinez/Dewees/Jimenez are all pretty close in prospect value. ...

That's fair, and likely.  I've got Jiminez with his power in the Cubs top-10, maybe top-5.  But if all those guys are all basically in the 10th-25th range of our prospect system, kind of similar/close in prospect value, that's one thing.  If after having Martinez for a couple of months they feel like he's got serious power, a good hit tool, great speed, and Andruw/Almora-esque CF talent, that would be different.  Presumably they don't. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 08, 2016, 06:13:33 pm
Hopefully all three guys will do really well. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2016, 07:56:12 pm
I'd but them all in the 10ish range.

-Jimenez has a ton of talent and could easily end the year in the top 5. He's a 19 year old, in full season ball. He could struggle as well.
-Martinez has a lot of interesting traits. He could be top 5 or a bum. I don't know if the Cubs even know what they have in him yet he hasn't played much the last 2 years.
-Dewees has the least upside, but also the least risk. If he can be a above average bat and average CF  that will have top 10 value.  He may just be a 4/5 backup OF, but I think he has the best chance of reaching the majors.

They are all pretty decent prospects. Hanneman isn't in Almora's class of prospect. I am kinda intrigued by him as a possible pinch run/defensive specialist for the playoffs and let him sit in the minors and see if his bat can ever develop during the regular season as long as he has options. Hanneman/Almora/Heyward would be really impressive defensivley late in games.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 08, 2016, 08:32:54 pm
Early on when Martinez was getting over-hyped as a superstar prospect, part of that was the Andruw Jones comp, whose CF gift was his most standout quality.  So interesting that Martinez is playing right and Dewees center....  I'd think if the Cubs really saw Eddy as having plus Jones-esque CF defense, Almora-with-speed, I don't think they'd be putting him in right to accommodate Dewees.  As reb notes, lesser guys move around to accommodate the greater ones.  So I deduce that while Eddy may have some CF ability, I don't think CF-defense is going to be exceptional or a major plus quality. 

As logical as all of that sounds, and as much as reb might beat the table in insisting he is right, the very example you cite -- Andruw Jones -- doesn't really bear it out.

When Andruw Jones came up with the Braves, he played 17 games in RF and 5 in CF his first season.  His second season season with the Braves it was 95 games in RF and 57 in CF.  Even when he was in the minors, the Braves did not simply plant him in CF, playing 7 in RF and only 5 in CF in his brief AAA stay.  Before AAA, baseball-reference.com doesn't provide the breakdown for Jones before AAA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 08, 2016, 10:03:38 pm
McKinney: 2-4, 2B

Blackburn: 5 IP, 1 R

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_08_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Torres: 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K

Happ: 0-4, BB, 4 K, 2 E,     (3 E's in 2 games at 2B)

Maples: 1/3 - 1-1-0-2-1, WP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_08_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 1-3, BB

Almora: 2-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_08_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 08, 2016, 10:06:47 pm
South Bend completed early due to snow.

Justin Steele probably not gonna win a Gold Glove.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_08_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 09, 2016, 07:43:45 pm
Dewees: 2-4, 3B, RBI, K, PO/CS

Martinez: 2-5

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_09_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 1-3, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_09_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 09, 2016, 08:57:06 pm
Markey: 5-3-0-0-1-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_09_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 2-2, 2B, BB, SB, HBP

Clifton: 3-4-5-3-4-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_09_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 09, 2016, 09:01:45 pm
Nice work by Concepcion and Paniagua in relief.  It would be nice if either one could turn into a relief pitcher.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 10, 2016, 02:55:13 pm
One thing is obvious: the Cubs have no offense in the minors. None.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JR on April 10, 2016, 02:57:00 pm
Aren't we a little early in the minor league season to be making big grandiose statements like that?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 10, 2016, 03:19:54 pm
The early season results are matching up with the rosters, JR. Might get 3 shutouts today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jack Birdbath on April 10, 2016, 03:50:08 pm
Aren't we a little early in the minor league season to be making big grandiose statements like that?

No sample size is too small for Chris.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 10, 2016, 04:00:30 pm
No sample size is too small for Chris.

Don't speak for me. Thanks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 10, 2016, 05:10:54 pm
McKinney/Candelario: 0-8, 2 K

Skulina: 6-4-1-1-1-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_10_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 1-3, 2B, HBP, CS, K

Vogelbach: 1-4, 2 RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_10_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Torres: 0-4, 4 K    2-15 w/ 9 K's overall

Happ: 1-4, 3B, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_10_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend snowed out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on April 10, 2016, 06:06:23 pm
Isn't it like 3 games into the year?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 02:51:28 pm
Zagunis: 3-4, 2B, K

Tseng: 3-3-0-0-1-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_11_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jack Birdbath on April 11, 2016, 02:54:16 pm
Don't speak for me. Thanks.

Not speaking for you.  Just making an observation. Perhaps I'm wrong and you hold off on making any big conclusions after single events. But, if that's the case, you might want to find out who stole your password.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: ben on April 11, 2016, 03:04:42 pm
Chris, thanks as always for the link and highlights!
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 11, 2016, 04:10:02 pm
Zagunis: 3-4, 2B, K

Tseng: 3-3-0-0-1-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_11_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Mick Gillispie ‎@BroadcasterMick
RHP Jen-Ho Tseng @Cubs @BaseballAmerica #20 prospect hit by batted ball in left leg and helped of the field. former #cubs MiLB POY 2014
11:39 AM - 11 Apr 2016
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 11, 2016, 08:49:40 pm
Eddy Julio with his first professional home run.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 11, 2016, 08:56:34 pm
Baez hit a HR.

Almora scored from second on a sac fly..
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 09:28:46 pm
Jimenez: GW-ing HR in 9th;  1-5, HR, RBI, 3 K

Martinez: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_11_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Happ: GW-ing 2-run double in 9th;  1-5, 2B, 2 RBI, E (4th)

Torres: 0-4, 2 RBI, BB, K, E

Stinnett: 5-3-3-2-2-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_11_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 09:57:01 pm
Baez: 1-3, HR, RBI, K

Vogelbach:  3-4, 2B, RBI, BB, K

Contreras: 4-5, 2B, 4 RBI

Almora: 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K

Johnson: 3-2-0-0-3-5,  66 pitches


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_11_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 11, 2016, 10:02:04 pm
Johnson was hit on the elbow with a line drive. He stayed in the game and was pulled when the inning was done.

Baez playing LF tomorrow.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 10:44:53 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeVa3wBJ3dM
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JR on April 11, 2016, 10:48:22 pm
Sell out crowd there to see that one . . .
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JR on April 11, 2016, 10:48:43 pm
Eloy certainly looks the part anyway.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 10:53:40 pm
Jimenez' opening day triple is at about the 1-minute mark here:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=578454183&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2016, 10:57:39 pm
Martinez' homer:

https://twitter.com/CarlDeff/status/719714162704785408
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on April 11, 2016, 11:48:34 pm
I did not realize that singing "Go Cubs Go" had migrated to the minor leagues. That's cool.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 11, 2016, 11:52:43 pm
Sell out crowd there to see that one . . .

It's too d*mn cold in South Bend this time of year to attract many fans to a night game.  Turnout will be better when it is warmer.

And while it was nice to see him HR, hopefully his manager took him to task afterward for standing around and watching it after the swing instead of taking off out of the box.  Hate to see bad habits like that in a player so young.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on April 12, 2016, 01:16:20 am
They play Go Cubs Go when the Smokies win too.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Bennett on April 12, 2016, 08:33:19 am
They play Go Cubs Go when the Smokies win too.
Also when the Solar Sox win an AFL game.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 12, 2016, 10:28:02 am
In the small sample world, Chesny Young has already tripled his career HR volume this week.  (0 draft summer; 1 last year; 2 already this year.)  He has a very small swing, not much load up; probably why he K's so little.  Hard to envision much frequent or sustainable power.  But I think it does make a difference if a contact guy can reach the wall at least once in a while.  HR's are hits, obviously; but it's also wanting to keep the outfielders honest, as opposed to playing super shallow.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 12, 2016, 10:30:13 am
According to ArizonaPhil, Manny Parra is having TJ surgery.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2016, 01:50:06 pm
Contreras' 2-run double:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=585728783&sid=milb


Happ's winning double:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=585731483
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2016, 02:09:55 pm
Long review of South Bend's game. Apparently, Martinez made a running catch that preserved the 8th-inning tie:

http://www.elkharttruth.com/sports/South-Bend-Cubs/2016/04/11/Eloy-Jimenez-of-South-Bend-Cubs-drills-homer-to-open-the-9th-and-end-game.html
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2016, 09:14:22 pm
Jimenez: 4-5, 2B, RBI, 2 SB,  Lined out to 1st with the bases loaded tied in the 9th.

Martinez: 0-4, RBI, 2 K,  HBP with bases loaded to win game in 9th

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_12_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 3-5, 2B, 2 RBI, K

Torres: 0-5, K,     2-24 w/ 11 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_12_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 12, 2016, 10:14:29 pm
Awesome to see Eloy, Dewees, and Happ all hitting. 

Bananas Dewees has had two hits in four of five games. 

Rashard Crawford is off to a good start.  How good is his defense supposed to be?  Is he the one who's supposed to be quite good and very rangy in CF, or is that the Trey Martin who never did develop as a hitter?  I think I recall Arguello saying that Crawford looks a lot stronger this year, and looks like he might be able to hit with some power.  (He hit only 4 HR last year, but his average has progressed from .210 => .259 => .280 over his three seasons, so maybe he's a guy on solid improvement track which might continue this year.)  Had a 90K/4HR ratio last year, though, so it would take some real development to become meaningful. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 12, 2016, 10:35:29 pm
Craig - I remember that you used the bananas nickname before, but I don't remember who or why.  Can you explain?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 12, 2016, 10:41:18 pm
Ray Sadler? got hits in bunches.

Martinez was hit with a knuckle ball and Jimenez was robbed on a diving catch.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on April 12, 2016, 10:44:11 pm
Bananas Sadler.

Winfield Mallory.

Nobody does nicknames like Craig.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2016, 12:07:35 am
Baez: 0-4, K, E, Assist (HP)

Contreras: 2-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_12_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Candelario: 0-4, K   3-22 overall

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_12_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on April 13, 2016, 06:54:23 am
Also nice to see that Scott Frazier is having success in low-A this spring.  It took two years for him to get a second chance at that level after his horrific start in 2014. Obviously, he has good stuff or the 24-year old would have been released a while ago.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 13, 2016, 12:56:14 pm
Underwood is pitching today in extended spring training.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2016, 03:18:06 pm
Baez: 1-4, 2 K

Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 K

Edwards: 1-2-2-2-2-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_13_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 13, 2016, 03:52:43 pm
I wonder if Alcantara has any chance of having a rebound year and becoming a major league player at some point? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 13, 2016, 04:13:06 pm
Patton has K'd 6/10 batters he was faced.

Almora has 5 BB in 25 PA so far (20%).

If Alcantara was fixed his problem of being unable to hit a change up then he could certainly at least be a bench guy.  Power, Speed, Switch Hitting and defensive value in the INF and OF works nicely on the bench. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on April 13, 2016, 05:01:48 pm
That was the storyline going into last season, right?  "Alcantara can play everywhere and is going to be Maddon's Zobrist," except he forgot how to hit and dropped off the radar.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 13, 2016, 05:16:55 pm
Alcantara has all the tools to be a very good MLB player.  But time is running out on him.

A great many prospects with all the tools to be a very good MLB player end up sucking.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on April 13, 2016, 05:28:27 pm
I think Raul, Sandy, Sergio, and Victor Alcantara all have excellent shots at the majors.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 13, 2016, 05:31:19 pm
No hit, no Zobrist. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on April 13, 2016, 05:48:23 pm
Quote
Alcantara has all the tools to be a very good MLB player.

If someone were really pedantic, they might point out that if they really had *all* the tools, they wouldn't fail.  Such a failure must be linked to a lack of some tool--maybe the ability to hit a breaking ball.

Fortunately, we don't have anyone like that around here.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2016, 08:50:10 pm
Happ: 1-3, RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_13_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Dewees: 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI, PO/CS

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_13_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 13, 2016, 09:39:13 pm
If Dewees keeps this up, they might have to find room for him in Myrtle Beach.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2016, 10:27:24 pm
Candelario: 3-4, BB

Blackburn: 6-4-0-0-1-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_13_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on April 14, 2016, 01:23:44 pm
Whatever became of Stephen Bruno?  Was he released or injured?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 14, 2016, 02:04:31 pm
Bruno's on the DL.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 14, 2016, 03:23:36 pm
Baez: 2-4, SB

Almora: 2-3, SF, RBI

Vogelbach: 2-4, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_14_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 14, 2016, 07:34:08 pm
Dewees 2 for 2 so far.  Both triples.

Justin Steele got killed.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 14, 2016, 08:28:52 pm
Dewees 2 for 2 so far.  Both triples.

South Bend's season started one week ago, and Bananas already has four triples.  Pretty amazing. 

He's also got a walk tonight, so he's at 3 walks/2 K's thus far.  Usually nobody hits much in April, so his blazing start is pretty unusual. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 14, 2016, 09:17:10 pm
Dewees: 2-3, 2 3B, BB

Jimenez: 0-4, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_14_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Torres: 1-4, BB, K

Happ: 0-4, BB, 4 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_14_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 14, 2016, 09:41:59 pm
Black: 2-2-1-1-0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_14_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 15, 2016, 09:05:43 pm
Torres: 0-2, 2 BB, K, PO/CS,   3-30

Happ: 0-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_15_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 0-4, K

Martinez: 1-4, 2B, RBI, K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_15_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 15, 2016, 10:32:00 pm
Hannemann: 2-4, 2B, RBI, SB;  was 3-27, .348 OPS

Skulina: 5-5-2-2-1-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_15_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Vogelbach: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_15_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on April 15, 2016, 11:30:04 pm
Im gonna go to the Smokies game Monday night.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 16, 2016, 08:52:57 am
Vogelbach has 13K in 31 AB.  Small sample, but high for a guy who doesn't hit many HR's. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 16, 2016, 10:20:15 am
For his career, Vogelbach is less than 20% strike outs.  It may be just a sample size situation, or perhaps he is trying to change his swing to bring in more home runs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 16, 2016, 06:08:17 pm
3 HR so far for him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 16, 2016, 06:23:24 pm
Vogelbach has one homerun if that's who you are talking about.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 16, 2016, 09:14:11 pm
Torres: 1-5, 2B, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_16_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Martinez: 0-4, 2 K,   2 for last 21

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_16_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 3-5, 2B, PB

Vogelbach: 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, 2  BB


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_16_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 16, 2016, 09:30:26 pm
Tennessee:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_16_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 16, 2016, 09:52:25 pm
Vogelbach has one homerun if that's who you are talking about.

Read a tweet wrong. My bad 1, 3 run HR.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 17, 2016, 04:47:09 pm
Happ: 2-3, 2 BB, SB

Torres: 0-3, 2 BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_17_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Dewees: 2-3, 2 2B, BB

Jimenez: 2-4, 2B, RBI, K

Martinez: 0-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_17_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 17, 2016, 06:50:14 pm
Time to switch Dewees and Burks.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 17, 2016, 07:16:47 pm
Candelario: 0-5, 2 K   (.184)

McKinney: 1-4, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_17_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 18, 2016, 03:40:32 pm
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen  39m39 minutes ago Mesa, AZ
Duane Underwood pitched 5 innings. 92-94 FB, T95, 77-78 CB, 85-86 CH. struggled in 1B w/ FB command, left it up, but breezed through next 4.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 18, 2016, 03:57:46 pm
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen  39m39 minutes ago Mesa, AZ
Duane Underwood pitched 5 innings. 92-94 FB, T95, 77-78 CB, 85-86 CH. struggled in 1B w/ FB command, left it up, but breezed through next 4.

Good to hear. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 18, 2016, 04:02:37 pm
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_17_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Alzolay ended yesterday with a boring line:  6.1 innings, 3 runs, only 3 K's.  But the walk and two of the three hits came in the 7th, and a relievers let them all in.  Through the first 6 innings, he allowed one single and that was it.  I'm hopeful that he'll emerge as an interesting guy this season. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 18, 2016, 04:53:45 pm
Arguello thinks Underwood might be close to heading to AA.

He also had this to add

John Arguello ‏@CubsDen  1h1 hour ago Mesa, AZ
Nice outing also for 21 year old LHP Manuel Rondon, who was acquired for C Rafael Lopez. FB 92-93, T94, 77 CB. Threw strikes, 3 perfect IPs
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 18, 2016, 08:06:08 pm
Ian Happ with huge game tonight.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 18, 2016, 09:18:31 pm
Dewees: 1-4, 2 RBI, SB, BB, K

Jimenez: 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_18_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB, K

Torres: 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_18_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Blackburn: 7 IP, 0 R

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_18_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 19, 2016, 07:14:16 am
Nice April for Blackburn. I run in three starts.  He's obviously gotten kinda lucky with the BABIP, but 4 walks/18 innings, and 1.92 GO/AO gives you a chance, even without any K's. 

Happ is a crazy guy, going on these 4-K-per-night binges, but getting his hits in bunches.   .419 BABIP helps. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 19, 2016, 08:52:40 am
Post-surgery Ryan McNeil is interesting.  He's only appeared in three middle-relief games, 10K/1BB/8IP
9K/1BB over his 5.2 innings. 

Cubs don't have a lot of high-K guys, so he's kind of interesting in that regard.  We'll see whether it holds up beyond a couple of appearances.  He was K-per-inning guy last year too, first full year back from the surgery.  So, may be a real thing. 

His usage is kind of unusual (I think):  All of his appearances are 2+ innings, 3-innings max.  This is similar to last year, when he averaged 2 innings per appearance, and seemed to be on a very scheduled ≥3-day rotation.  I don't think he ever pitched last year with less than two days of rest.  His appearances this year have involved 3- and 5-days.  (Today will be 3rd day, so maybe he'll pitch tonight.) 

I've wondered whether they might have plans for him, and that last year was a controlled post-surgery usage, but that perhaps he'd get another shot at rotation.  Perhaps yes; but fair chance that he's just being developed for relief.  Arguello said that in camp, he threw everything pretty hard, didn't see anything less than 84.

For rotation candidates, they pretty heavily emphasize working on change up, so perhaps they've just decided that he's best served to just be a reliever and to become a good one. 

Arguello said he was seeing his fastball fairly routinely up in the 94-95 range, but that he was throwing a lot of high-80's cutters.  I imagine that's where the K's are coming. 

Watching Arrieta thriving on the cutter, and Lackey's cutter combined with his fastball being very effective, it's easy to imagine McNeil being able to ride a fastball/cutter combo to very good success.  Here's hoping. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 19, 2016, 08:58:12 am
With McNeil looking pretty interesting, with Underwood pitching well and seeming to be ready to come back, and with Blackburn coming off three-straight high-minors starts, it kind of shifts the look of the Almora draft. 

Pierce Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood, and McNeil were the four pitchers taken.  That hasn't seemed like a home-run draft thus far.  But it's interesting to think that perhaps one or maybe several of those guys are going to going to reach the majors eventually.  Possibly all four of them. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 19, 2016, 10:06:21 am
Conway is another pitcher that is interesting from that draft.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 19, 2016, 10:38:07 am
And in addition to Almora, position players Rademacher is performing well in Tennessee and Crawford in Myrtle Beach.  Both have the potential to be at least role players in the MLB.

Over the years, the Cubs have had quite a few drafts where no one made it to the majors for more than a cup of coffee.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 19, 2016, 11:13:07 am
2005 may have been the worst draft ever.  Only 2 players made it to the majors and only 1 that the Cubs signed in Donnie Veal.

From 2002-2005 all six first rounders, supplemental picks did not make the majors.  With Sean Marshall's career likely being over those drafts will likely have produced 0 players the Cubs signed getting to 10 rWAR.  Rich Hill is a 4.8 rWAR so I guess he has an outside shot. 

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on April 19, 2016, 11:22:13 am
Rademacher seems to be the minor league hitting version of Jason Hammel.  He starts strong and wilts in the 2nd half.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 19, 2016, 12:34:10 pm
That isn't unusual with minor league position players.  They play very few games per season in high school and college, and not too many more in short season ball.  Low and high A ball is the first time they have a long drawn out season, and it is not unusual for kids to falter towards the end of the season.  If it happens in AA, it is more likely something to worry about.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 19, 2016, 08:15:57 pm
Bijan Rademacher has two HR thus far, he's already matched in 12 games his season-total of 4 from last year.  he's kinda hot thus far.  He's hitting .467, with 9 walks and 4 HR to 2 K's. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2016, 09:10:28 pm
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, E

Almora: 3-4, RBI, SB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_19_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Candelario: 1-2, RBI, 2 BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_19_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, HR, RBI, K

Happ: 0-3, BB, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_19_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 0-5, K

Martinez: 1-5, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_19_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 19, 2016, 11:33:04 pm
Almora is temporarily up over .300, and with his big 3-4 night it also gets his slugging up over .300 as well, and his OPS up over .700.  His Iso is now up to 0.029.  He's got one extra base thus far.  There was talk from Theo about Almora looking more built and noticeably stronger this spring, and of course talk about his improved approach allowing him to wait for pitches that he can drive, and adding the leg kick to give him more power.  So far, though, doesn't seem to be driving much of anything yet.  Hopefully he'll show some added power and extra bases as the summer proceeds. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 20, 2016, 07:12:40 pm
Almora with a ground-ball double, his second double. 

Chesny Young 4-4. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 20, 2016, 08:07:50 pm
Almora must have read Craig's comments.  He hit a homer to go with the double.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 20, 2016, 08:27:30 pm
Twitter said he ripped the double down the left field line.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2016, 08:55:46 pm
Happ: 1-3, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_20_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-3, BB, K

Martinez: 2-4, 2 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_20_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_20_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 20, 2016, 09:13:22 pm
Way to go, Almora!  HR, who hoo.  Goes from 1 XBH to 3 XBH in one night, from 1 XB to 6 XB in one night. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 20, 2016, 09:57:12 pm
Craig is resorting to sarcasm again.  That is the way his campaign to ruin Nic Jackson's career started.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2016, 10:20:36 pm
Iowa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_20_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2016, 10:26:13 pm
Torres' oppo homer:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=602780983


Happ's two homers from Monday:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=598983783

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=599640583

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 21, 2016, 07:37:19 am
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=607332783&topic_id=26477824&c_id=t451&sid=t451

Almora HR, comfortably clears the wall almost straight CF. 

Fairly modest leg kick. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 21, 2016, 09:46:38 pm
Martinez: 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_21_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tseng: 5 IP, 7 R

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_21_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-3, 2 BB, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_21_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa suspended.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 22, 2016, 07:21:51 am
Nice to have Pierce Johnson back.  6K/1BB/1 run/5IP. 

Clifton and Kellog both with variably decent starts. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 22, 2016, 02:15:07 pm
Bill Mitchell
‏@billazbbphotog
Jose Albertos up to 95 in one inning for #Cubs extended spring team, but with command issues. Projectable frame, some pitchability.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 22, 2016, 09:48:31 pm
Completed Iowa game:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_21_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB

Torres: 2-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_22_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Jimenez: 1-3, RBI, BB, 2 K

Dewees: 2-5, 2 RBI, SB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_22_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 2-4, 2 RBI, SB, K

Almora: 1-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_22_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 22, 2016, 10:54:55 pm
Candelario: 1-3, HR, RBI, 2 BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_22_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 22, 2016, 11:48:08 pm
EJ Martinez' Thursday homer:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=612301483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 23, 2016, 03:22:31 am
Current Ian Happ splits:

Right-handed: 1-13, .374 OPS

Left-handed: 18-47, 1.096 OPS
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on April 23, 2016, 06:25:29 am
Early season age- and position-adjusted batting grades:

LF:
Jimenez C
Burks C
Zagunis D
Dunston F+

CF:
Almora A+
Crawford A-
Dewees B
Hannemann F+

RF:
Rademacher B+
Spingola B
Martinez D
McKinney D
Baez F+

1B
Alamo A (flukish driving by high BA in limited at bats)
Vogelbach B+
Balaguert D

2B
Happ B
Young B
Alcantara D

3B
Vosler B
Candelario F+

SS
Flete C-
Torres C-
Penalver D-

C
Contreras A-
Caratini D+
Higgins D



Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on April 23, 2016, 07:04:46 am
Some of those grades seem off to me. Why is Baez a F+?  Flete a C-?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 23, 2016, 08:51:38 am
Current Ian Happ splits:
Right-handed: 1-13, .374 OPS
Left-handed: 18-47, 1.096 OPS

Early and small-sample, but interesting, and definitely worth keeping an eye on as sample size grows. Thanks much, Chris. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on April 23, 2016, 09:23:13 am
Offensively, Donnie Dewees is looking more like Juan Pierre every day.

Defensively, they share the same poor arm, but Dewees seems to be a much better fielder than Pierre.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 23, 2016, 09:55:50 pm
Jimenez: 1-4, 2 RBI, 2 K

Alzolay: 6-2-1-0-2-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_23_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 2-3, 3B, E

Happ: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB

Stinnett: 6-2/3 -3-1-1-0-7

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_23_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Candelario: 1-3, 2 BB

Blackburn: 8-7-2-2-0-1, 14 GO

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_23_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Almora: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_23_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 24, 2016, 07:02:02 am
Fifteen games into the AAA season Almora is looking better, and Contreras is looking as if he might force a callup if he continues.

Contreras after 51 AB has only 7 Ks and the following slashline .373/.421/.451/.872.

Almora also has 51 AB and 7 Ks with a slashline of .333/.390/.510/.900, compared to a career slashline of .289/.326/.420/.746.

Schwarber's injury may end up helping provide a real opportunity for one, or both, of them later this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on April 24, 2016, 08:43:38 am
Almora is now up to .390 OBP, .510 SLG and .900 OPS. Pretty sure he can't sustain that, but maybe his numbers a week ago weren't something to worry about after all?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 24, 2016, 05:29:40 pm
Edwards: 1-1-1-1-3-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_24_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 3-6, 2 RBI; gw-ing hit in 10th

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_24_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hannemann: 3-5, HR, RBI, SB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_24_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on April 24, 2016, 06:23:25 pm
>Some of those grades seem off to me. Why is Baez a F+?  Flete a C-?

When I did the evaluation Jeffrey Baez had a 0.544 OPS  and a 11/3 K/W while Flete had a 0.858 OPS and a 4/7 K/W.  That and the fact that the offensive bar at SS is low are the primary reasons.  Obviously Jeffrey is a much better prospect and Flete's grade is likely to fall off the map soon due to his age relative to league.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 24, 2016, 08:17:35 pm
Happ: 0-1, RBI, 3 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_24_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 24, 2016, 09:37:32 pm
Happ has really put a run together. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 24, 2016, 09:58:53 pm
Yeah, .450 OBP and 8 of his 20 hits are x-base hits.

Would think he'll be in AA in a month or so?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 24, 2016, 10:39:44 pm
Yeah, .450 OBP and 8 of his 20 hits are x-base hits.

Would think he'll be in AA in a month or so?

If he continues as he is doing now, he may, but I doubt the front office is looking to rush any prospects right now.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on April 25, 2016, 12:33:52 am
Happ's K-rate worries me, given that I don't think he's going to be a big-time power guy in the majors.  But clearly, as a switch-hitter with some speed and pop, he has a chance to be useful even if he has some major flaws.  The ability to play adequate defense at 2B (or 3B) would sure be huge, though.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2016, 02:51:58 am
Happ's K rate is now down to 22.5%.

Not a "major flaw(s)" at that rate.

The guy can flat out hit from left side--will be interesting to see what he does from righty side but has a gorgeous lefty stroke. And is comfortable in deep counts.

Think an advanced college bat like this should not be in A ball too long.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 25, 2016, 10:22:30 am
The good news, obviously, is that Happ is hitting.   The question of how soon he should be promoted wouldn't come up if he wasn't.  I'm good to trust whatever management decides here, given their record of thoughtful and effective decision-making.  It's kind of win-win-win. 
1.  Happily, there is no rush.  We've got a very nice lineup as is.  With Baez and LaStella on reserve, 2B has good present depth. 
2.  By accounts Happ may have much defensive work ahead.  Both 2B-wise, and outfielding.  (He mentioned being much less familiar and less comfortable in the outfield.)  Seems to be a hard-worker, and may have good aptitude, so from now to 13 months from now, a lot could progress.  But defense certainly needs to factor into his development plan, not just hitting.  Defense may be especially challenging for a player whose target may be multi-position usage.  To become acceptable at 2B alone is one thing; to also become competent at 3B, LF, and RF, and perhaps CF also, may not come as quickly.  (Or perhaps it will, beats me.) 
3.  By all accounts, Happ is a smart, strong personality.  If promoted fast and failure follows, some guys can't handle that; I think Happ could handle some struggle and learn through it.  Likewise some guys fail to develop if they aren't promoted; why change anything if I'm having success?  Again, I don't think that will apply for Happ.  Even if he's hitting pretty well at Myrtle, I think he'll still be able to improve and learn even amidst success.  (Anybody who's making outs 70% of AB's and K'ing >20% of AB's probably can still feel lots of opportunity to get better....) 
4.  Happ is very young, he'll be 21 till mid-August.  So he's really age-wise like a lot of draft-season college juniors right now.  Makes his success at A+ all the more age-impressive.
5.  All hitters go through ups and downs.  Learning consistency, and how to extend the hot streaks and minimize the cold spells, is part of the process.  A quick promotion would be great, but the ability to sustain the type of success or amplify the success Happ has had over the last dozen days could be great, too.  Win win. 


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 25, 2016, 10:36:48 am
Arguello mentioned before the season that his bat might be ready for AA, but the defense was still a work in progress and that was why he was looking at High A.  The thinking was they didn't want him to struggle on learning second base and struggle at the plate as well, which might be more likely at AA.  As Craig mentioned there isn't a need for him at the major leagues so they can take his development a little bit slower.

The strike outs could be an issue depending on how much power you think he projects to have.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on April 25, 2016, 11:04:53 am
Hannemann doesn't try to steal too often, but he has a very impressive success rate.  If only the other aspects of his offensive game could come around.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 25, 2016, 12:00:43 pm
The good news, obviously, is that Happ is hitting....   
2.  By accounts Happ may have much defensive work ahead.  Both 2B-wise, and outfielding.  (He mentioned being much less familiar and less comfortable in the outfield.)  Seems to be a hard-worker, and may have good aptitude, so from now to 13 months from now, a lot could progress.  But defense certainly needs to factor into his development plan, not just hitting.  Defense may be especially challenging for a player whose target may be multi-position usage.  To become acceptable at 2B alone is one thing; to also become competent at 3B, LF, and RF, and perhaps CF also, may not come as quickly.  (Or perhaps it will, beats me.) 
3.  By all accounts, Happ is a smart, strong personality....
4.  Happ is very young, he'll be 21 till mid-August.  So he's really age-wise like a lot of draft-season college juniors right now.

While I am very happy to appear to have been so wrong about Happ as a prospect when I put together my rankings after last season, something does not really fit with the things above.

Smart, hard-working, athletic players with a good aptitude and a strong personality, who are natural hitters and hitting well enough that they need not focus their attention or energy on their hitting development, should not be so slow in learning how to handle either secondbase or leftfield, particularly when they are healthy and have played 85 games of minor league ball with good, professional coaching having his development as a high priority.

Something seems wrong.

Happ comes from a college program which has had rough times of late, so perhaps his instruction there was not the best.... but he did play there for three full seasons, and also played two years in the Cape Cod League, apparently always as a corner OFer or secondbaseman.  Those are not the hardest positions on the field to learn.  And the reports are that he has not really come close to learning them.

Perhaps he actually is being a bit over-rated in at least one of the following: intelligence, aptitude, athleticism, or hard working.

He has NOT been bounced all over the field with the Cubs, instead playing only OF and 2B.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2016, 12:21:18 pm
Happ is now putting up about the same numbers in fast-A as Schwarber did at that level. Schwarber spent about 3 weeks in slow-A before that and then about 7 weeks in fast-A. Schwarber had 20% K rate at fast-A (Happ 22.5%). Schwarber too had defense to learn. Schwarber started first full season in AA.

Don't get why you'd have to keep Happ in A ball for defensive reasons. He can do all that in AA and AAA too. Also, circumstances with the big club should have zero impact on a decision when to promote a guy from A to AA. That decision is all about the player, not organizational needs in majors at the time.

Assuming Happ's current progress (which is not a given), would be inclined to move him up to AA by June 1 or so---would like to see him get bulk of his ABs this season in AA.

Lot of reasons to do this. Has more trade value if shows he can hit AA pitching; moves his development along in line with his skills; elite guys tend to thrive with the challenge (Schwarber and Conforto put up better numbers in AA).

I get that doesn't seem any urgency to get Happ to majors...but things sometimes change quickly. Don't assume anything. By same token, can't assume Happ is an elite guy yet either. But, if has similar numbers a month from now at MB, think time for a AA promotion then.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 25, 2016, 01:08:12 pm
jes, I don't think any of the scouting reports evaluated his intrinsic defensive tools as being super good.  So, perhaps the "aptitude" is somewhat modest.  Nobody was projecting him as a gold-glove 2B or CF. 

I think he mostly played SS/3B/2B for freshman/soph years; then had an injury and played outfield junior year and draft year.  He didn't start working back at 2B until Fall instrux, so it had been since before his injury that he'd played infield.  So, perhaps as an apologist, perhaps it's not surprising that quite a very young college guys after their sophomore years aren't necessarily ready to play big-league 2B, and will need some work at it.  Likewise I suspect that some guys who played up through HS and early college in infield, aren't necessarily ready to play a good big-league OF after one summer there.  Bryant, he's amazing, he seemed to pick it up like nothing.  But Baez has spent some work in the outfield, and despite being regarded as a super-instinctive defensive guy where all defense comes naturally, they still push Bryant to outfield rather than use Baez there.  It may take some reps. 

But yeah, there's certainly the possibility that he might end up more like Fowler/LaStella than Russell/Baez on the defensive spectrum, a guy who a manager will play because manager likes the bat, but may never be more than average (if that) defensively. 

I would like to think that Happ could end up perhaps being excellent in LF, or maybe RF. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on April 25, 2016, 01:20:13 pm
Quote
Bryant, he's amazing, he seemed to pick it up like nothing.  But Baez has spent some work in the outfield, and despite being regarded as a super-instinctive defensive guy where all defense comes naturally, they still push Bryant to outfield rather than use Baez there.

My guess is that this is more about how much they like Baez "on the dirt" rather than something missing from his outfield abilities.  I've been big on keeping Bryant at third because of the defensive spectrum argument and think Bryant is perfectly adequate at third, but I won't be surprised if Baez supplants him as the everyday third baseman, maybe even by the end of this year.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 25, 2016, 01:26:15 pm
Hannemann doesn't try to steal too often, but he has a very impressive success rate.  If only the other aspects of his offensive game could come around.

Hannemann's K/BB/HR splits in the early small/sample are actually pretty good, and improved:  10K/5BB/3HR/68 AB are good ratios.  10K/3HR (3.3:1) is quite good, way better than last year (128K/6 HR, 21:1).  10K/5BB (2:1) is also better (3.3:1 last year.)  Guys with 3:1 K/HR and 2:1 K/BB rates usually end up with quite good offensive numbers.  Obviously he's only 68 AB into the season, very small sample.  He might well hit 50K's before he gets his next HR, so for such tiny 10K/5BB/3HR/68AB numbers, there is absolutely no reason to assume they'll sustain over the full season.  Many reasons to almost certainly expect that they won't.  (They're just too good, and too different from his past poor ratios.)  But **IF** he could sustain his early K/BB/HR splits, I think we'll be very happy with his season when September closes it. 

What's depressing his slash stats is that his BABIP is lousy, and his ground-ball rate is too high.  His BABIP this month is only .241; last year he was .319, which seems more in keeping with a normal minor league player, especially for a lefty with his speed.  If you gave him last year's BABIP, while keeping his same K/HR that he's actually got this year, he'd be hitting .300 right now.  He's been a high ground ball guy throughout; he's 1.43 GO/AO this spring, he was 1.45 last year, and he's 1.53 career.  Not sure it's easy to support a high line-drive rate or BABIP or slugging with so many grounders.  Hopefully he improves on that as the year progresses. 

But overall I'd say his early-April reduction in K-rate, combined with a small-sample boost in HR's, could be actually encouraging. 

Easy to say right now, when he's red-hot.  6-hits and 2 HR's in last three games.  Perhaps he's due for 2/25 with 9 K's over the next week, beats me. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 25, 2016, 02:00:18 pm
My guess is that this is more about how much they like Baez "on the dirt" rather than something missing from his outfield abilities.  I've been big on keeping Bryant at third because of the defensive spectrum argument and think Bryant is perfectly adequate at third, but I won't be surprised if Baez supplants him as the everyday third baseman, maybe even by the end of this year.

DelMarFan said it as well as I could, and more quickly.  It appears the current position decisions have more to do with thinking Baez is better at 3B than Bryant more than it is a result of any concern about how Baez does in the OF.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2016, 02:00:41 pm
My guess is that this is more about how much they like Baez "on the dirt" rather than something missing from his outfield abilities.  I've been big on keeping Bryant at third because of the defensive spectrum argument and think Bryant is perfectly adequate at third, but I won't be surprised if Baez supplants him as the everyday third baseman, maybe even by the end of this year.

Who plays where in 2016 is impacted a lot by Schwarber's absence.

Quite possible we could see Bryant more and more in LF in 2016, depending on Soler's overall performance and how much Maddon wants to get LaStella in the lineup. Notwithstanding some of the Baez-in-OF off-season discussion, seems clear now that is a last resort type of thing.

Schwarber returning in 2017--mostly LF--think we'll see Bryant sparingly in OF by then. All of the defensive spectrum reasons for Bryant at 3B for next bunch of seasons still apply---maybe even more so now because clear Bryant is a fine defensive 3B. Yes, with the major injury to Schwarber, will see some Bryant in LF temporarily--more than would be the case if Schwarber was here--but don't think has much long-term positional impact.

Baez is going to move around the diamond. That's his role unless Soler stinks and Baez gets most of those ABs, with Bryant playing more OF than he otherwise would and Baez playing where Bryant otherwise would be. Could see that in 2016.

Long-term, still see Baez' value in middle IF and guessing that might be elsewhere as result of a trade or with Cubs due to some other unanticipated development.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2016, 04:28:13 pm
Jimenez' game-winning single yesterday came within a couple of feet of being a game-winning homer.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=625641383&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 25, 2016, 04:44:54 pm
Nice video, Chris.  Jiminez ripped that one. 

He's got an unusual stance in the batters box, and hip alignment.  I'm guessing there may be some adjustments he makes during his developmental years. 

Kind of fun celebration. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2016, 06:46:34 pm
Happ is Carolina League POW:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160425&content_id=174455414&fext=.jsp&vkey=pr_t521
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2016, 10:27:18 pm
Andreoli: 3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, K

Almora: 3-5, 2B, RBI

Vogelbach: 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, K

Patton: 1-1-0-0-0-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_25_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Hannemann: 1-3, 2B, SB, 2 BB, 2 K


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_25_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


MB & SB off.
 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 25, 2016, 10:44:07 pm
Chesny Young with two more hits and two more walks.  He's now sitting with a 14BB/6K ratio after at least 78 PA.  .481 OBP. 

Fun. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 25, 2016, 11:13:52 pm
I can't link to it from my phone, but the I Cubs tweeted a YouTube clip of Vogelbach's HR.  It hit the top of the I Cubs scor board. It went a long way.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2016, 11:58:45 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkpsxsti42A
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 26, 2016, 12:02:12 am
Andreoli: 3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, K

Almora: 3-5, 2B, RBI

Vogelbach: 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_25_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

If Vogelbach maintains his .990 OPS, he might have a future.  The same with Almora's .882 and Contreras's .866.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 26, 2016, 10:05:00 am
Vogelbach's HR **** the top of the letter A and broke the neon lights inside it.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Dave23 on April 26, 2016, 12:06:09 pm
That's a serious shot. Glenallen Hill-ish.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 26, 2016, 12:41:58 pm
Chesny Young reaches base in first three PAs today (2 walks, one hit). That puts his season OBP at .500 at the moment.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 26, 2016, 01:12:15 pm
Iowa Cubs have used 10 different starting pitchers already---to start 17 games before today.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on April 26, 2016, 01:27:18 pm
The Iowa pitching staff is a who's who among wanna be's. Still hoping Patton and Edwards turn into useful pieces for the big league team in the future
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2016, 02:41:00 pm
Candelario: 2-3, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB

Caratini: 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_26_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Vogelbach: 2-4, 2B, K

Almora: 2-4, K

Johnson: 4-2/3 -6-4-4-4-6

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_26_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 26, 2016, 06:17:24 pm
Vogelbach: 2-4, 2B, K

Almora: 2-4, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_26_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

If Almora and Vogelbach have both actually turned the corner on reaching Iowa, that would be huge for the Cubs.

Almora's slash line is now .344/.389/   .500/.889 (Who would have ever imagined Almora slugging .500?)

Vogelbach is at .362/   .456/.552/1.008.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: JeffH on April 26, 2016, 07:45:20 pm
<craig>Slugging .500 is a lot easier when you're hitting .344.</craig>    #battingaveragematters
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 26, 2016, 09:06:22 pm
Heh heh, that's a nice one, Jeff! 

Heh heh, Chesny Young is also slugging well over .500.  Chesny has now left the .500-OBP threshold behind.  OBP .508, slugging .529, all while having >80% of his hits as singles. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 26, 2016, 09:07:25 pm
Eddy Martinez, after 17 K's, has taken the first walk of his American baseball career tonight.  Hopefully the first of many more. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2016, 10:04:53 pm
Happ: 1-4, 2 K, E

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_26_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Dewees: 1-5, 3B (6th), RBI, K

Jimenez: 2-5, 2B, RBI, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_26_souafx_qcsafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on April 27, 2016, 07:14:46 pm
2-run HR, Ian Happ
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 27, 2016, 08:54:24 pm
Happ: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Torres: 1-4, 2B, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_27_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



South Bend rained out;  Iowa, Tenn idle
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 27, 2016, 09:00:03 pm
Happ's Saturday homer from the right side:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=618627483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 27, 2016, 11:58:47 pm
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/04/daily-cubs-minors-recaps-happ-brockmeyer-hr-cease-starts-for-ext-st-cubs/

Arguello met up with an old scouting friend and they talked about Cease.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 28, 2016, 09:40:42 pm
Almora: 3-5, HR, 3 RBI, SB

Contreras: 0-1, RBI, 4 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_28_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Steele: 1-2/3 -7-6-3-2-1,   .414 BAA

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_28_souafx_qcsafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hannemann: 2-5, HR, RBI, K

McKinney: 2-4, 2 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_28_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Myrtle Beach rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on April 28, 2016, 09:46:54 pm
Has Albert Almora suddenly become "good"?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on April 28, 2016, 09:50:33 pm
You never thought much of him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on April 28, 2016, 10:36:18 pm
Is it okay to get excited about Almora yet?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 28, 2016, 10:39:59 pm
Is it okay to get excited about Almora yet?

Wait for Dusty to first say again he is sure Almora will suck.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 28, 2016, 10:57:28 pm
Jimenez: 1-3, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_28_souafx_qcsafx_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 28, 2016, 11:18:33 pm
Almora on MLB radio at the 20:30 mark:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160428&content_id=175078526&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 28, 2016, 11:34:06 pm
Is it okay to get excited about Almora yet?

Man, this Almora power is awesome.  He's now in the top-20 in the PCL in all the major offensive categories, Average, OBP, slugging, OPS.  Really nice. 

Ryan Kalish is really doing great, he's the top offensive guy at Iowa.  OBP over .500.  Would be cool for him if he could stay healthy and have a really good year and get back into the majors in a meaningful role. 

Hanneman is at .796 OPS.  Keep it going. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 28, 2016, 11:44:58 pm
Craig you just jinx it.

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 29, 2016, 01:26:55 am
Almora .362/.403/.551/.953     HR also help a slugging percentage.  He is now at 3 in 69 AB, for a rate of 1 for 23, compared to a career rate of 1 ever 65 AB before this year.  He has shown gradual and minor power improvements from season to season, but if he has actually turned a corner.....

Contreras .375/.419/.446/.866

Vogelbach  .355/.452/.532/.984
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 29, 2016, 02:18:41 am
From JJ Cooper/BA prospects chat today:

Rick (NJ): Where do you see Ian Happ winding up for the Cubs? Can he be their future 2nd baseman?

J.J. Cooper: I don’t know where he fits. The Cubs are seemingly two deep at every position as Javier Baez is struggling to find a regular spot. The good news for the Cubs is Happ is a year or two away. Time has a way of opening spots up. That said, 2B is the best fit for Happ if he’s willing to grind away to become more polished at the position.

Matt (Nashville, TN): What are your thoughts on the long term prospects of Chesney Young? He continues to hit for a high average at every level (now almost at .400 in AA) with tremendous strike zone control and a little speed to go with it. He certainly doesn't have the profile of a top prospect, but his floor may be so high that he has a much better chance to carve out a long career in the majors. Would you rather have two of him or one higher profile prospect?

J.J. Cooper: I love him. He’s not going to be an impact guy but I’m with you–he’s going to play in the big leagues. My expectation is he ends up in some sort of Tommy La Stella role where his hitting ability get him pinch hit at-bats. But Young has more defensive value than La Stella, so he could end up being better than La Stella.

Patrick (Fort Wayne, In): What have you heard about Gleyber Torres slow start? Has he taken a step back? over matched? or are there other issues?

J.J. Cooper: SSS. Haven’t heard anything to indicate he’s way over his head yet. Worth noting that he hit .204/.248/.280 for South Bend last August but because it was at the tail end of a great year it wasn’t that noticeable. Because Torres has started out slow this year it’s much more noticeable.


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2016, 06:03:48 am
Almora's homer:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=638530583&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 29, 2016, 08:16:45 am
Craig you just jinx it.

Heh heh heh, three fluke home runs, what does that prove against a long history as a low-power guy?  He's no Ryan Kalish, that's for sure.  But if he keeps working, maybe he's got an outside shot to eventually blossom into a Ryan-Kalish light hitter?  :):)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on April 29, 2016, 09:11:43 am
What a buzz kill. You'd think those North Dakotans would be basking in the glow of Carson Wentz and the success of Fargo Season 2.

Thanks a lot, craig.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on April 29, 2016, 09:14:44 am
We North Dakotans never bask.  We'd get frostbite.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 29, 2016, 09:38:36 am
Heh heh, yes, there has indeed been much buzz for Carson Wentz, and mostly happy he went 2nd rather than 1st.  Super nice, classy guy, and having some time behind Bradford at Philly should give him some time to get acclimated.  Getting thrown right in in LA would have been bad. 

I've never met him personally, but have heard him speak at fundraisers and church and stuff, and he's in a Bible study with some close friends of mine.  Really neat kid.  Too bad he went so high; seems almost unfair what the pressures and expectations are being so high and so hyped.  10 months ago, people were pretty impressed with rumors that he might go higher than 3rd day, and talk about 3rd or 2nd round seemed really exciting.  When "might even go first round" talk started circulating, seemed almost unbelievable for an NDSU kid.  Going second and Philly trading a zillion high picks for the chance to get him, seems hard to believe that the local nice-guy can actually be THAT good.  But, why not, I guess?  Best wishes for him. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2016, 04:21:26 pm
Quote
11. Albert Almora, of, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .407/.429/.704 (11-for- 27), 6 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1-for- 1 SB

The Scoop: This is the Almora whom scouts expected to see when the Cubs selected him with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2012 draft. No one has ever questioned Almora’s defense, and he’s always been tough to strike out. But with little pop and few walks, his offensive value had been tied to his batting average. This year his walk rate is up, his power has improved and he’s still tough to strike out. It’s too early to determine whether these improvements are permanent, but it’s an encouraging sign for Almora.


Quote
14. Ian Happ, 2b, Cubs

Team: high Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .400/.550/.867 (6-for-15), 4 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 5 BB, 2 SO

The Scoop: After scoring with first-round picks Kris Bryant (2013) and Kyle Schwarber (2014), the Cubs have hit on another college bat. Happ has terrific bat speed and combines aggressiveness with great selectivity. He has drawn 15 walks already this season against 20 strikeouts. His power had been to the gaps, but he has four homers already, showing more lift in his swing. The Cubs are giving him a long look at second base this spring, but he could wind up as a successor to Ben Zobrist as a multi-positional, switch-hitting, bat-first player.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-april-29-young-mets-shortstop-finds-footing/#vi8p6kF8pMXwezI0.97
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on April 29, 2016, 08:07:27 pm
Age- and position-adjusted batting update
LF
Eloy Jimenez B-
Charcer Burks D (Rough week 1/18; Walks but not much more)
Mark Zagunis D- (see Burks)

CF
Albert Almora A+
Rashad Crawford (A-) Did not play this week
Dnnie Dewees B (0.250 ISO despite 0 HRs)
Jacob Hanneman C- (0.234 ISO; age weighs his rating down)

RF
Bijan Rademacher B+ (0.283 ISO with more walks than strike outs)
Daniel Spingola B- (batting average but not much else in part time role)
Ryan Kalish C+ (reaches base more times than not in part time role)
Billy McKinney D
Jeffrey Baez D-
Eddy-Julio Martinez F+ (20/1 K/W could use some improving)

1B
Dan Vogelbach B+
Tyler Alamo C+
Taylor Davis D
Yasiel Balaguert D-

2B
Chesny Young A (More SB than K's and you know the rest)
Ian Happ A (0.250 OPS)
Arismendy Alcantara D

3B
Jason Vosler B-
Jeimer Candelario C

SS
Gleyber Torres C+
Bryant Flete D+
Carlos Penalver D+

C
Willson Contreras B (has thrown out 5 of 13 base stealers
Victor Caratini C+ (has thrown out 5 of 20  base stealers; 7 / 17 as a batter this week)
P J Higgins C (has thrown out 7 of 16 base stealers)


Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on April 29, 2016, 08:23:43 pm
Almora left the I Cubs game.

Alcantara tied the I Cubs record for triples with Billy Hatcher and Chico Walker.

Edit:  Tommy Birch, not my favorite source, is hearing it is an illness and not an injury for Almora.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2016, 11:03:06 pm
Almora left with "stomach issues"

Patton: 1-1-0-0-0-2,    9 IP, 5 H, 16 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_29_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Hannemann: 3-4, RBI, BB, SB

Young: 4-5, 2 RBI

Underwood: 4-4-1-1-1-2,  73 pitches

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_29_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Martinez: 1-2, 2 BB  -  1 BB in 78 AB's coming in

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_29_souafx_cedafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 2-4, 2B, RBI, 2 K

Huge game for Benintendi who is clobbering High-A.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_29_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 30, 2016, 12:57:56 am
Chesny Young now batting .410---almost 100 PAs.

The guy has a .331 lifetime batting average, with significant walks and low Ks.

Of course, he's a singles hitter for now.

But, 2 homers already this season--could he hit 10?

Not comparing him to Matt Carpenter (who showed plenty of extra-base punch in minors) but some guys just show up and turns out they can really hit. Round 13/14 guys who keep surprising.

Probably the Kool-Aid.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 30, 2016, 06:25:59 am
Happ's RBI double:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=641587083&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 30, 2016, 08:13:30 am
...Matt (Nashville, TN): What are your thoughts on the long term prospects of Chesney Young? He continues to hit for a high average at every level (now almost at .400 in AA) with tremendous strike zone control and a little speed to go with it. He certainly doesn't have the profile of a top prospect, but his floor may be so high that he has a much better chance to carve out a long career in the majors. Would you rather have two of him or one higher profile prospect?

J.J. Cooper: I love him. He’s not going to be an impact guy but I’m with you–he’s going to play in the big leagues. My expectation is he ends up in some sort of Tommy La Stella role where his hitting ability get him pinch hit at-bats. But Young has more defensive value than La Stella, so he could end up being better than La Stella...

Thanks, reb.  That's cool.  Agree with your point, some guys can just hit, and sometimes the rich-get-richer:  the guys who actually are the best pure hitters to start are the ones who are best able to further optimize their game, and the ones who are most able to sustain against better and better pitching. 

I'm guessing the 10-HR hope isn't going to happen.  I saw clip of one of his HR's this spring, the only clip I think I've ever seen of him.  He had a very small, short swing, without much of a back-swing or load-up.  Pitch was right down the middle; he seemed to hit it right on the sweet spot and with as much extension as his little swing allowed, and it barely cleared what looked to be a short-ish fence.  Of course anybody can get one out now and then, when they get the right pitch and hit it right, and the wind is good, etc..  But I'm guessing with his swing that he'll never have as much power as, say, Darwin Barney.  (Barney hit 7 HR's in back-to-back seasons with Cubs.  Theriot had a 7-HR season as well.)

But, if a guy could BABIP at .330, if he K's only 10% of his AB's, he can still hit .297 average without a single HR.   

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 30, 2016, 08:14:49 am
Almora left with "stomach issues"...

Thanks much, Chris.  That's a relief. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 30, 2016, 08:19:50 am
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=595238#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

Hannemann's OPS is up to .835, now that he's pulled his BABIP up to .280.  He's been a high-K guy in past.  One month of 13K/85AB probably doesn't mean that's changed.  But if he could sustain even close to that limited K-rate, while stilling taking some walks and hitting some HR's, the 13K/85AB/10BB/4HR splits, he's suddenly be a good offensive player. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on April 30, 2016, 08:52:01 am
Some good stuff with the under the radar guys like Hanneman and Young. I would also point out that it seems the Cubs have been feeding Concepcion some PEDs. When did he start getting guys out?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 30, 2016, 09:20:28 am
Rashad Crawford and PJ Higgins might be a couple of others. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on April 30, 2016, 10:26:23 am
Perhaps small sample size Daniel Spingola mixes in as well.  I'm guessing he will disappear but we shall see.  Turns 23 next week.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on April 30, 2016, 04:16:07 pm
Considering where he was drafted and the size of his bonus, the fact that some think of Hannemann as under the radar is a reflection of just how underwhelming he's been.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 30, 2016, 04:45:17 pm
In a month, Hannemann will have about 700 career PAs at AA level. Should be moving up then, seems to me. Let's see what he can do at AAA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on April 30, 2016, 06:35:25 pm
I don't think Hannemann has proven he can hit AA pitching, I'd prefer to stay in AA playing CF through at least the all star break.

Maybe I don't recall what normal G/F ratios but Blackburn (3.50), Johnson (3.67), Hedges (14.50), and Stinnett (6.50) are keeping the ball down so far this year (at least through Thursday).  Stinnett is the only one to give up a gopher ball (two).  Blackburn's lack of Ks is a bit worrisome, especially in this era of strike outs where many teams think offense first when choosing infield starters.  Brad Marley's lack of Ks may have been a factor in his recent demotion to the bullpen




Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on April 30, 2016, 07:26:41 pm
I don't think Hannemann has proven he can hit AA pitching, I'd prefer to stay in AA playing CF through at least the all star break.

If the goal is developing him as a CFer, until Almora is called up, it might make sense to leave Hannemann in AA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on April 30, 2016, 07:28:28 pm
In a month, Hannemann will have about 700 career PAs at AA level. Should be moving up then, seems to me. Let's see what he can do at AAA.
He's got 519 AB at AA level right now, 1138 total. 

He's had a great week (13/32, 3 HR, 4 walks/5K).  He's never done much hitting before. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on April 30, 2016, 07:57:47 pm
He's got 519 AB at AA level right now, 1138 total. 

He's had a great week (13/32, 3 HR, 4 walks/5K).  He's never done much hitting before. 

579. Referenced PAs--and will be close to 700 PAs in a month.

Guy is 25--not sure necessary to give him 1,000 PAs at AA at this point. If he's still hitting a month frim now, time to see what can do at Iowa, I think.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 30, 2016, 09:10:46 pm
Dewees: 3-5, 2B, RBI, SB

Martinez: 2-5, 2B, K

Jimenez: 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 K

Alzolay: 5-3-1-1-2-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_30_souafx_cedafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_30_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Iowa rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on April 30, 2016, 11:48:18 pm
Blackburn: 5-4-0-0-1-4,   31 IP, 1 ER, 0.87 WHIP, .210 BAA

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_04_30_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 01, 2016, 07:54:58 am
.228 BABIP helps, 86% strand rates helps, and 0 HR helps. 
5 walks in 31 innings helps a lot, too, as does 1.7 GO/AO profile. 
Fangraphs has his FIP at 3.35. 
I've been checking the milb pitch count for him.  Oddy, it doesn't appear that he's throwing a huge percentage of strikes.  Lots of balls, so he must be really working the edges and nibbling fairly effectively.   

Being able to locate a good sinker can carry a guy a long ways.  Hopefully at some point he'll be able to come up with a cutter or improved curve or Hendricks-esque change up and develop at least an anti-awful number of K's. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 01, 2016, 09:39:24 am
Oddy, it doesn't appear that he's throwing a huge percentage of strikes.  Lots of balls, so he must be really working the edges and nibbling fairly effectively.

Or he is simply fooling hitters to believe a pitch is going to be in the strike zone when it ends up crossing the plate out of the strike zone.  Think Bruce Sutter, particularly in his first couple of years.  Very few of his swinging strikeouts or of the weakly hit balls batters often produced against him came on pitches in the strike zone.  I don't know what the situation is with Blackburn, but for a sinkerball pitcher who appears to get a lot of outs with pitches outside of the strike zone something beyond "really working the edges and nibbling fairly effectively" would seem to be a possibility.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 01, 2016, 03:34:33 pm
Ex Cubs farmhand Hunter Cervenka pitching for the Braves.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 01, 2016, 05:29:29 pm
Contreras: 2-3, 2 2B, RBI

Almora: 0-3, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_01_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Everything else rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on May 02, 2016, 01:43:37 pm
GREAT to see Blackburn with another efficient outing...having him step back up into legit prospect status will be a big boost to the system
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2016, 09:33:02 pm
Tenn Gm 1:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_tenaax_blxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Tenn Gm 2:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_tenaax_blxaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, 2B, SB, K

Martinez: 0-4, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_wisafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 K

Stinnett: 5-2-1-0-1-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Contreras: 1-4, HR, RBI

Johnson: 3-4-4-4-0-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 02, 2016, 10:02:23 pm
Contreras: 1-4, HR, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_02_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Vogelbach .343/.443/.507/.951
Contreras .359/.432/.453/.886
Almora     .351/.390/.527/.917
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2016, 10:04:33 pm
Contreras' RBI double from Sunday:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=649588483
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2016, 02:22:10 am
Contreras' homer went a long way.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=651258183&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 03, 2016, 06:53:38 am
That was Contreras' first HR.  Pretty amazing to have an OPS of .908 (.886 before that game) with only one HR.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on May 03, 2016, 04:02:18 pm
Felix Pena: 13IP, 4H, 3 BB, 20K. Maybe that second bullpen lefty can come from Iowa.  Clayton Richard sure hasn't inspired any confidence in his limited opportunities.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 03, 2016, 04:09:12 pm
A second lefty might be down there.  But it won't be Pena himself, he's a righty.  He's really off to a nice start.  He was an all-star and stuff in the Southern League last year, but he's always been a starter.  By reports, in short relief he's throwing mid-90's pretty regularly.  Maybe one of those nice relief-conversion success stories? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 03, 2016, 04:47:00 pm
Gerardo Concepcion 13.1 IP, 10K, 3 BB, 1 IBB might need to move up to AAA.  Zastrynzy is a another possible starter to bullpen guy.  Leathersich is another guy when he comes back.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Robb on May 03, 2016, 04:52:28 pm
Don't know why I thought Pena was a lefty.  Well either way he is having a nice start.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2016, 05:19:31 pm
Felix Pena: 13IP, 4H, 3 BB, 20K. Maybe that second bullpen lefty can come from Iowa.  Clayton Richard sure hasn't inspired any confidence in his limited opportunities.

Well, the major point is that a good thing to mention Pena, who might be a bullpen factor at some point--although likely Patton is first in line (especially since Patton already on the 40-man).

Richard is the mop-up guy---only pitching when Cubs ahead or behind by multi-runs.  Cubs just haven't had long-man situations when a reliever has to come in early.  Think Richard's main role now is long-man and emergency starting pitcher--as Warren and Wood are key bullpen guys and Cahill probably will be too when the relievers get more innings than they are getting now.

But, seems like Cubs don't want to lose Richard on a waiver claim--at least as of now.  Look at the starting pitchers at Iowa.  Who do you want coming up to start in the big leagues?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2016, 05:41:18 pm
If Cubs brought up a lefty reliever from the minors--likely to be Giovanni Soto.  He's already on the 40-man, has been a good reliever in the minors in his career, got a cup of coffee in majors last season, and has been okay in 2016. 

Not too sure about converting Zastryzny into a reliever.  He has been better against righties than lefties in his career and doesn't seem like kind of guy that eliminating a pitch, as a reliever, is going to help him much.  There may be a few but don't see too many major league lefty relievers who are hit harder by lefty hitters than by righties.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 03, 2016, 07:35:49 pm
Fairly good pitching tonight throughout the system.

As I write, Arietta no runs allowed through five.  Williams no runs through 4.  Martinez no runs through 5.  Kellogg no runs through 5.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2016, 09:09:28 pm
Almora: 0-4, SB

Edwards: 1-0-0-0-0-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_03_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 K

Martinez: 1-3, RBI, SB, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_03_wisafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 2-4, HR, RBI, BB, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_03_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 03, 2016, 09:27:23 pm
Kellogg has sequences a couple of really good games.  He may pitch his way up to Myrtle Beach if he sequences many more like that. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 03, 2016, 10:49:15 pm
Williams finally pitched a game like he commonly did the last two years.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 04, 2016, 06:08:35 am
Torres' homer:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=655107683


Jimenez double:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=656457583&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 04, 2016, 08:25:33 am
Almora has gone hitless for three consecutive games, and has one walk in his last 40 AB.  The early walk stuff may have been an anomaly? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 04, 2016, 01:59:51 pm
Vogelbach with a grand slam this afternoon and Contreras with three walks in first three ABs. Contreras now with 12 walks and 9 Ks for the season.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 04, 2016, 02:21:53 pm
Fourth walk for Contreras.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 04, 2016, 03:31:02 pm
Vogelbach: 3-5, GS, 5 RBI

Contreras: 0-0, 4 BB, HBP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_04_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Myrtle Beach:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_04_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


South Bend:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_04_wisafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on May 04, 2016, 03:41:27 pm
I jinxed Almora.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 04, 2016, 03:45:57 pm
Don't take credit for what Craig does.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 04, 2016, 03:47:25 pm
Vogelbach slash line now at 354-446-532.

Contreras OBP now at .448.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 04, 2016, 04:25:54 pm
Zach Hedges:  1.69 ERA, 22K/8BB/0HR/32IP, 1.9 GO/AO. 

Ryan Kellogg:  2.30 ERA, 23K/4BB/1HR/27IP.   

David Berg:  1.69 ERA, 7K/1BB/0HR/11IP, 8.3 GO/AO.

James Farris:  1.13 ERA, 21K/4BB/0HR/16IP.

Minor league pitchers who don't walk guys can have minor-league success.  (The beauty of small samples...)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 04, 2016, 09:38:17 pm
McKinney: 1-3, 2 BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_04_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 05, 2016, 09:32:14 pm
Almora: 3-4, 3B, RBI

Contreras: 2-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_05_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 1-4, 2B, 2 K

Clifton: 5-6-2-2-3-8

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_05_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Underwood: 5-5-3-3-2-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_05_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4, RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_05_belafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 05, 2016, 10:01:08 pm
Vogelbach's slam from yesterday:

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=658201483&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 06, 2016, 02:35:11 am
Almora's still hitting but he's stopped walking. Just one over his last 74 at-bats.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 06, 2016, 08:06:55 am
From CubsDen
"17 year old Jose Albertos was the most impressive pitcher on the day, sitting at 94 and flashing a plus curve.  Albertos has been tough to hit but what made the difference today was exceptional command as he struck out the side in order.".

A lot of kids can touch 94 occasionally, but that is quite different than being able to "sit" at 94, especially for a 17 year old.  The Cubs may have something interesting here.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 06, 2016, 09:12:18 am
From CubsDen  "17 year old Jose Albertos was the most impressive pitcher on the day, sitting at 94 and flashing a plus curve.  Albertos has been tough to hit but what made the difference today was exceptional command as he struck out the side in order.".

A lot of kids can touch 94 occasionally, but that is quite different than being able to "sit" at 94, especially for a 17 year old.  The Cubs may have something interesting here.

Thanks, Dave, that's great news, thanks for sharing the note.  Your point is very well taken, "sitting" and "touching" 94 are totally different.  If he's "sitting" at 94, and throwing strikes there, that is really fast.  For most kids, a 17-year-old throwing 94 with a plus curve would seem like a big prospect.  I wonder what kind of frame he's got.  A lot of tall lanky guys, you figure further projection ahead.  (Bryan Hudson, for example.)  A guy with a frame more like Tseng, or Fernando Valenzuela, maybe not much projection left.  Still, maybe "stuff" projection isn't necessary, just control and consistency?  A lot of big-league managers would love to have a guy commanding a 94 fastball and a plus curve. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 06, 2016, 09:17:01 am
It's interesting how few good Mexican pitchers there have been lately.  In the 80's, there was not only the great Fernando Valenzuela, but Teddy Higuera for the Brewers also had some fantastic seasons, a couple of ERA+ seasons of 156 and 162. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 06, 2016, 09:56:50 am
Jose Urias for the Dodgers should be up soon.  Maybe Mexico is starting to produce guys again.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: jacey1 on May 06, 2016, 01:46:31 pm
Hank Aguirre was of Mexican descent-didnt realize that,,,wasnt he a Cubs pitching coach during the 70's? Remember Daniel Garibay? Wasn't he from Mexico? Cubs have had some good ones LOL
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 06, 2016, 02:42:39 pm
Pierce Johnson back on DL at Iowa (lat strain).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on May 06, 2016, 08:29:45 pm
Minor league hitting update (Age- and position-adjusted hitting grades)
LF:
Eloy Jimenez B- (8/24 this week with 2 doubles)
Mark Zagunis D+(7/15 this week including a HR)
Charcer Burks D+
Shawon Dunston D (7/14 this week with a 2B and a 3B)

CF:
Albert Almora A- (0.227 OBP and 0.318 SA this week)
Rashad Crawford B (2/14 with 8 walks this week)
Donnie Dewees C+ (6 triples this year)
Jacob Hannemann D (0.217 BA this week)

RF:
Bijan Rademacher B+ (has split time between LF and RF; leads Cubs in OPS (1.070) and ISO (0.250))
Daniel Spingola C+ (0.377 BA leads Cub organization)
Billy McKinney D (3/15 all singles this week)
Eddy-Julio Martinez D-
Jeffrey Baez F+

1B:
Dan Vogelbach B
Tyler Alamo C-
Yasiel Balaguert D-
Taylor Davis D- (backs up Contreras behind the plate)

2B:
Chesny Young B+ (leads Cub minor leaguers in steals with 9)
Ian Happ B- (3/24 this week with 10 strike outs)
Carlos Sepulveda C+
Arismendy Alcantara D

3B:
Jason Vosler B-
Jeimer Candelario D+(2/20 this week)

SS:
Gleyber Torres B-
Carlos Penalver C-
Bryant Flete D-

C:
Willson Contreras B (Has thrown out 7 of 18 base stealers; 39%)
Victor Caratini C (has thrown out 6 of 25 base stealers; 24%)
P.J. Higgins D+(has thrown out 8 of 22 base stealers; 36%)

Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CurtOne on May 06, 2016, 08:41:55 pm
Dallas obviously grade on the curve.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 06, 2016, 08:42:06 pm
If it is a hitting update, does the catcher's stole base percentage affect the grade?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 06, 2016, 09:03:12 pm
Minor league hitting update (Age- and position-adjusted hitting grades)
LF:
Mark Zagunis D+(7/15 this week including a HR)


How does a LFer go 7 for 15 with a HR and get a D+ for the week?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 06, 2016, 09:23:28 pm
Hannemann: 2-3, RBI, BB

Blackburn: 7-3-3-0-2-4,    0.24 ERA,  0.84 WHIP

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_06_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Martinez: 2-4, HR, RBI

Alzolay: 5-3-0-0-1-2

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_06_belafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


MB rained out.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 06, 2016, 10:38:15 pm
Victorino: 1-4, 2B, RBI

Almora: 1-6, RBI

Contreras: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_06_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on May 06, 2016, 11:22:54 pm
I really think Contreras has to be close to being ready to help the big club (not that they seem to need it much at the moment).
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: dallen7908 on May 07, 2016, 10:14:04 am
If it is a hitting update, does the catcher's stole base percentage affect the grade?

No, no defensive information goes into the rating, which is based on the season to date.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 07, 2016, 12:27:35 pm
No, no defensive information goes into the rating, which is based on the season to date.

So it is the season to date performance which Has Zagunis at a D+ after a 7/15 week with a HR?

For the season he has the following slash line: .280/.392/.366/.758

THAT is a D+?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 07, 2016, 02:34:31 pm
Yes.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 07, 2016, 05:38:23 pm
Contreras' homer was another no-doubter. Be nice if he hit more balls in the air. Extreme ground ball guy so far.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=667446083&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 07, 2016, 09:17:56 pm
Torres: 2-4, SB, 2 K

Happ: 0-3, BB, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_07_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Happ: 1-3,   Last 7 Gms: 2-26, 10 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_07_myrafa_wilafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb



Hannemann: 2-4, 2 SB, K

Candelario: 1-4, 2B, 3 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_07_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Jimenez: 2-4

Martinez: 1-3, RBI, BB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_07_belafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on May 07, 2016, 10:09:18 pm
Kelly Dugan has 4 hits on the season and all 4 of them are HRs.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 07, 2016, 10:14:34 pm
Iowa:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_07_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 08, 2016, 10:17:15 am
Cubs Den in their said that Corey Black has been showing better fastball command and has moved into the Smokies closer role.  That would be nice if he can continue to do that.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 08, 2016, 04:44:19 pm
Almora: 2-5

Contreras: 2-3, 2B, RBI, HBP, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_08_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K, 2 E,    game-tying HR in 9th

Happ: 3-5, 2B, SB, IBB

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_08_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Candelario: 2-4, 2B

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_08_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


South Bend idle
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 08, 2016, 06:34:03 pm
Nice to see Williams return to last year's form, after struggling a little in the early going.  He is starting to be an interesting prospect.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 08, 2016, 11:30:04 pm
Cubs Den in their said that Corey Black has been showing better fastball command and has moved into the Smokies closer role.  That would be nice if he can continue to do that.

Black, yes, and I wonder if Concepcion is getting interesting. Skeptical about older guy, minors middle reliever stats, especially repeating a level, but Cincepcion numbers at AA night and day compared to 2015 AA numbers.
Wonder if his stuff is actually good or just nothing meaningful. With Black, we at least know the stuff is good.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 09, 2016, 08:32:38 am
Concepcion turned 24 two months ago, but he's only pitched 175 minor-league innings.  I'd like to think that a guy isn't fixed and beyond adjustments/improvements 175 innings into his career, so I'm hopeful that he's made some real adjustment that will last. 

He was hugely terribly wild last year for Tennessee:  29BB/32IP.  This year 4BB/16IP.  I don't get the impression his stuff is exceptional, but 92-93 lefty is certainly decent enough velocity for a lefty reliever.  Keep-your-eye-on guy, I suppose.   
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 10:13:35 am
I've read up to 96 in relief with a decent curve ball.  Control/command was more of an issue for him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 12:02:16 pm
Vogelbach with 2 HR's so far today through 4 innings.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 09, 2016, 12:51:03 pm
Vogelbach with 2 HR's so far today through 4 innings.

He's got 5 now.  Hit 7 all last season.  Half his XBH are HR's, 5HR/5 doubles. 
His GO/AO ratio is 3.0 entering today.  You'd think for a big, strong guy like that, some adjustment to try to get the ball in the air more might be a priority.  Perhaps when he does, he kills them, so almost all grounders end up as outs, and most balls in the air either go over the wall or go for line-drive hits? 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 04:37:48 pm
Vogelbach slash line now at 337-417-547--pretty good for a first-time AAA guy who is age-appropriate for the level. Think maybe real trade bait at trade deadline. Yankees?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2016, 04:39:24 pm
Vogelbach slash line now at 337-417-547--pretty good for a first-time AAA guy who is age-appropriate for the level. Think maybe real trade bait at trade deadline. Yankees?

We getting Castro back?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2016, 04:40:47 pm
Contreras: 1-3, SB, 2 BB

Almora: 1-4, 2 RBI

Vogelbach: 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI, K

Edwards: 1-1-0-0-0-3

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_09_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 09, 2016, 04:49:24 pm
Edwards has sequenced 4 outings/innings without a walk.  (Had 3 the inning before that....)
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 04:59:32 pm
Edwards has 10 Ks in last 5.1 IP. Good to see. Think Ks are telling for prospect pitchers, especially relievers.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 05:15:54 pm
Almora now with 61 ABs without a walk.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Playtwo on May 09, 2016, 05:30:12 pm
I'd like to know how frequently Almora is expanding the zone.  If it's simply a matter of pitchers challenging him more, it's not much of an issue given his BA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2016, 05:41:29 pm
Vogelbach, Edwards, Johnson and Torres for Andrew Miller.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2016, 06:03:59 pm
Almora now with 61 ABs without a walk.

1 over his last 94.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 06:31:30 pm
Vogelbach, Edwards, Johnson and Torres for Andrew Miller.

I'm not sure if the Yankees will sell him or not. If he does go on the market with 2 1/2 years of control that is likely not enough to get him.  The Cubs would likely be better off trading for Chapman, I'm not sure I'd want him on the team. I generally hate the idea of trading a lot of value for a reliever, especially an expensive one.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 06:40:13 pm
Berg promoted to AA.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 07:45:19 pm
We getting Castro back?

Actually, there's a good argument that Castro has been Yankees best position player so far this season. Good for him.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: goblue007 on May 09, 2016, 07:53:39 pm
If they give up Gleyber for a reliever...
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 08:05:14 pm
If they give up Gleyber for a reliever...

Don't think that will happen. As to Yankees, they have similar prospect (Jorge Mateo) at same level (FSL)---their SS of the future. Think they'd be talking about other guys, aside from Gleyber.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 08:09:02 pm
You go for the best prospect and figure out positions later.  The Cubs once had Castro and Baez and still traded for Russell.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 08:25:57 pm
Yeah, but another SS just not as valuable to Yankees as would be otherwise. Easier to steer them to another package, as a practical matter.

Torres and Mateo are playing at same level, which means somebody likely moves off SS way too early. Don't see it. More so from Cubs end.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2016, 08:48:00 pm
It is a high A prospect. They have kinda high busts rates, even if they are really talented.

Regardless of position I think Miller would command a lot more than Torres in a trade so I guess we agree, but for different reasons.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2016, 09:00:25 pm
Yeah, a package of some kind.

If Miller goes on market, about every club in serious contention likely to want him. So, whatever Cubs offer, would have to outbid a lot of folks.

Miller, himself, seems okay about being non-closer. Don't want to disrupt clubhouse with Chapman bumping Rondon. So, that could have issues. For me, Miller is the guy and Theo/Jed seem to like guys with years remaining. Miller 2017 salary about same as Wood/Cahill 2016.

Sure, a longshot.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2016, 10:35:39 pm
Berg gives up a winning hit to his first AA batter:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_09_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


South Bend rained out, Myrtle Beach off.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2016, 05:42:58 pm
McKinney: 3-4, 2B, RBI, BB

Underwood: 5-7-2-2-2-6

Concepcion: 2-0-0-0-0-3,  vs LHB =  1-22, 10 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 10, 2016, 07:26:51 pm
...Concepcion: 2-0-0-0-0-3,  vs LHB =  1-22, 10 K...

Very interesting....
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2016, 09:57:23 pm
Contreras: 2-5

Almora: 2-5, K, SB

Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 BB, 2 K


http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 3-3, 2B, SB, BB    Last 3 games: 8-12, 2 BB

Happ: 2-4, RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Jimenez: 2-3, 2B

Martinez: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb



Jimenez: 1-3, 2B, K

Dewees: HR, 2 RBI,    6-36, 1 BB previous 10 games

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_souafx_dayafx_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 11, 2016, 12:07:52 am
Contreras: 2-5
Almora: 2-5, K, SB
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_10_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Contreras is now 6th in the PCL in BA, 3rd in OBP, 12th in OPS, and 27th in slugging.
Vogelbach is 14th in slugging, 12th in BA, 7th in OBP, and 9th in OPS.
Almora is 23rd in BA, 48th in OBP, 41st in slugging, 42nd in OPS.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2016, 02:09:12 am
Not a great view but here's Martinez' homer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlXZh2wGiqE


Torres' double:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfJ70wyavJQ
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 11, 2016, 09:53:33 am
Torrez and Martinez gradually working their numbers up after a horrible start.

One concern about Martinez was whether there was enough lift in his swing to produce game usable power.  So far, he seems decent in that regard.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 11, 2016, 11:01:18 am
Torrez and Martinez gradually working their numbers up after a horrible start.  One concern about Martinez was whether there was enough lift in his swing to produce game usable power.  So far, he seems decent in that regard.

martinez's GO/AO is just under 1.  So it's not like he's a groundout machine.  In that HR clip from Chris, it's almost like the pitcher couldn't have grooved one into a better spot for Eddy.  But interesting that he has no leg-lift whatsoever, even on the HR.  In the couple of other clips from him, that's been consistent; no leg-kick at all.  Of course, the clips were either batting practice early in camp, or else on minor-league hits, so most hits come when you're in balance.  Who knows what he's doing when he's fooled on a breaking pitch, maybe then he's lurching all over the place trying to keep some semblance of balance.  But if he's getting several HR-per-month with no leg kick, it's easy to envision the Cubs coaching encouraging him to lift and load a little bit more down the road to try to tap into more power. 

Will be interesting to track.  Obviously what goes up must come down, so no reason to expect his last-ten-games stats are going to be the norm going forward.  But over that 10-game sample, he's 7K/4BB/2HR/33AB, pretty decent splits.  Hopefully it all keeps moving in the right direction as he gets more experience hitting actual pitching, after years away from that. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Deeg on May 11, 2016, 11:53:12 am
Martinez has a very athletic and easy swing.  There's a lot to like there.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Ron on May 11, 2016, 02:08:14 pm

David Kaplan Retweeted
Tommy Birch ‏@TommyBirch  30m30 minutes ago
Almora Jr. with an RBI double-his second double of the day-and the I-Cubs take a 2-1 lead in the 5th inning. #MiLB

I just love seeing Almora produce offensively.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: DelMarFan on May 11, 2016, 02:12:00 pm
OPS over .800.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2016, 03:03:01 pm
Almora: 2-5, 2 2B, RBI, K, Assist

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_11_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 11, 2016, 03:07:15 pm
Randy Wehofer ‏@RandyWehofer  23m23 minutes ago
Almora lays out in deep right-center for an incredible diving catch and then fires in to double off the man at 1B. #Cubs #WebGem #Superman
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on May 11, 2016, 03:42:46 pm
I sure didnt see Almora turning into Jim Edmonds.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 11, 2016, 05:28:15 pm
What did you see?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Jes Beard on May 11, 2016, 05:34:29 pm
What did you see?

Are you asking for more johnson details?
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: guest61 on May 11, 2016, 07:14:09 pm
More like Sam Fuld.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: craig on May 11, 2016, 07:46:00 pm
Justin Steele with his first effective outing of the season. 
5 innings 6K/2BB/2hits, 10/0 GO/AO. 

Blackburn with his first bad outing, 3 earned runs in the first inning. 
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2016, 11:56:11 pm
South Bend:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_11_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Blackburn: 6-7-4-4-1-4

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_11_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb


Torres: 0-4, 2 K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_05_11_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: CUBluejays on May 12, 2016, 10:46:28 am
Concepcion promoted to Iowa.
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: davep on May 12, 2016, 11:07:18 am
It will be interesting to see how he performs in Iowa.  When signed, his strong points were a good curve and excellent command and control for his age and experience.  But it seems as if his curve and his command never progressed beyond that stage, and his fastball was never good enough to make up for that.

But this year, he seems to have progressed greatly in command and control, and in addition, we are hearing reports of much greater velocity on his fastball since moving into the bull pen.  It is hard to find fault with his performance this year, with zero earned runs in 17.2 innings, 5 hits allowed and 17 strike outs.  And I don't think he has been used strictly as a LOOGY
Title: Re: On The Farm
Post by: chgojhawk on May 12, 2016, 11:32:44 am
17.2 innings in 10 games is indicative of not being used as a LOOGY.  We overpaid by a great deal for him, but he is still young (just turned 24 in the winter) so he still has a shot to make the show.  I am cautiously optimistic.