Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Archives => Topic started by: mO on October 23, 2017, 03:29:59 pm
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America's favorite team is back!
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Eric Hinskie named Angels hitting coach.
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First look at the 2018 payroll. Opening day 25-man payroll each of the past two seasons was right around $172 million.
Under contract:
OF Jason Heyward - $21,500,000
1B Anthony Rizzo - $7,000,000
OF/2B Ben Zobrist - $16,000,000
SP Jon Lester - $22,500,000
SP Jose Quintana - $8,350,000
RP Pedro Strop - $5,850,000
Eligible for salary arbitration (estimates from mlbtraderumors.com):
3B Kris Bryant - $8,900,000
SS Addison Russell - $2,300,000
OF Leonys Martin - $4,900,000 (a certain non-tender; this estimated salary omitted from the total)
IF Tommy La Stella - $1,000,000
SP Kyle Hendricks - $4,900,000
RP Justin Wilson - $4,300,000
RP Justin Grimm - $2,400,000 (a possible non-tender; this estimated salary included in the total)
RP Hector Rondon - $6,200,000 (a possible non-tender; this estimated salary included in the total)
Auto-renewal players:
OF Kyle Schwarber - $850,000
OF Albert Almora - $850,000
OF/2B Ian Happ - $850,000
2B Javier Baez - $850,000
C Willson Contreras - $850,000
RP Mike Montgomery - $850,000
RP Carl Edwards Jr. - $850,000
Subtotal - $117,150,000
Likely additions:
OF Replacement for Jon Jay
C Replacement for Alex Avila/Rene Rivera
SP Replacement for Jake Arrieta
SP Replacement for John Lackey
RP Replacement for Brian Duensing
RP Replacement for Wade Davis
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Patrick Mooney on why the Cubs should hire Jim Hickey.
http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/why-cubs-should-make-jim-hickey-offer-he-cant-refuse
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By all means, hire him. But the real problems will still need to be addressed.
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2740111-cy-young-winner-jake-arrieta-could-bolt-cubs-for-massive-100m-payday?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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I might be willing to go 4/$100 with Arrieta - and that would be with serious misgivings (and I very much doubt he'd take it).
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David Ross as the new Bench coach? Just heard a discussion on the radio pondering it.
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I think Joe could benefit from a new bench coach. He and Davey have been together a long time.
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There are rumblings Mallee may be fired, too.
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Brandon Hyde would be another option for bench coach.
Where are the rumors on Mallee coming from?
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Twitter
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David Ross as the new Bench coach? Just heard a discussion on the radio pondering it.
That would be great, but weren't there two reasons to retire? Concussions and wanted to spend more time with family.
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There are rumblings Mallee may be fired, too.
That's interesting. Thanks for passing that rumor along.
Heh heh, I understand that it's a rumor and may not be true or become true! :)
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That would be great, but weren't there two reasons to retire? Concussions and wanted to spend more time with family.
Nobody has ever wanted to spend more time with family.
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I was thinking the same Cletus.
He just spent a whole year with them.
Thats plenty of bonding time.
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Twitter
Anyone in particular? I have the distinct impression that some people may tweet false information via twitter.
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Anyone in particular? I have the distinct impression that some people may tweet false information via twitter.
Reb
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine 3h3 hours ago
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Chicago Cubs hitting coach John Mallee has his end of the season exit meeting with the front office today .
I guess we'll hear something soon if it is going to happen.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine 3h3 hours ago
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Chicago Cubs hitting coach John Mallee has his end of the season exit meeting with the front office today .
I guess we'll hear something soon if it is going to happen.
From a Bruce Miles column on Chris Bosio
There was no formal news release, as the Cubs say they are trying to respect Major League Baseball's edict against making big announcements during the World Series, which begins Tuesday night.
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If anyone should be shaking in their boots it should be Mallee. Nearly every Cub hitter took a step back this year.
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If he is let go, my guess is that it will leak Bosio. Same thing goes for Hickey getting hired.
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I hope we're not descending into a culture of scapegoating the coaches. They were good enough for us to win the WS last year and get to the LCS this year. Obviously you can't fire the players, and at this point Joe seems to be pretty much untouchable.
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On the other hand, let's not be afraid to make a change if there is some "process-level" reason that warrants it.
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That's a good point, deeg. I suspect Mallee is just fine and is perfectly safe. But I'll be fine with whichever direction management chooses to go, keep (expected) or change (shocker).
But hey, have I ever mentioned that there can be value in change-for-change sake? The core have all heard Mallee's input. Maybe a new voice would perk up some listening ears; or maybe a new voice might have a fresh insight or two to add; or maybe a new personality might persuade a core hitter or two to make a beneficial adjustment of some kind?
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We've certainly come a long way from, "Hey we lost the NLCS, but it was a heck of a season!" to "Hey we lost the NLCS, it's time for some heads to roll!"
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Change for change's sake can also remind the players (especially young players) that this is a production based business. Perhaps one can blame it on the short offseason, world series hangover, WBC, Joe's approach to spring training or a belated sophmore slump, but nearly every hitter not named Javy Baez reverted this year. Certainly no other hitter came back having added some new component to their games. That isn't the fault of the hitting instructor. That is all on the hitters. Jayson Heyward attempted it in a very high profile way, then turned right back into his non-productive self. Schwarber didn't improve until his Iowa trip and still was a shell of his pre-injury self. I can't name anyone who improve year over year other than Javy and for a stretch, Contreras. I don't know that that is all on Mallee, but if you don't judge hitting coaches on such things what do you judge them on?
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That's a good point, deeg. I suspect Mallee is just fine and is perfectly safe. But I'll be fine with whichever direction management chooses to go, keep (expected) or change (shocker).
But hey, have I ever mentioned that there can be value in change-for-change sake? The core have all heard Mallee's input. Maybe a new voice would perk up some listening ears; or maybe a new voice might have a fresh insight or two to add; or maybe a new personality might persuade a core hitter or two to make a beneficial adjustment of some kind?
Yes, sometimes change for its own sake can be helpful and even necessary, even when it's grossly unfair. There may have been a physical hangover from last season but I think there's circumstantial evidence of a complacency/press clippings factor too.
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I don't think we can overlook that the motivation to end the 108 year drought is gone.
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We've certainly come a long way from, "Hey we lost the NLCS, but it was a heck of a season!" to "Hey we lost the NLCS, it's time for some heads to roll!"
Well, so far only one head has rolled. We'll see if there are other changes (besides coaches being recruited for promotions with other clubs).
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I don't think we can overlook that the motivation to end the 108 year drought is gone.
Amen.
I told my wife the same thing.
That fire is gone.
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Are you talking about the Cubs or your marriage?
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My wife is my biggest fan Curt.
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Well, at least you got ONE.
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My son and my momma like me too.
My daughter not so much. Lol
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Nobody has ever wanted to spend more time with family.
Ah, projection.
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Anyone in particular? I have the distinct impression that some people may tweet false information via twitter.
What an utter absurdity.
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Well, so far only one head has rolled. We'll see if there are other changes (besides coaches being recruited for promotions with other clubs).
I don't think deeg's twitter rumor on Mallee is likely to be a thing.
*If the end-of-year interview hadn't even occurred till today, I doubt any twitter sources would have any info.
*With Bosio, if they'd already had the exit interview, and told him, he might be then telling people.
*But don't think Theo and Hoyer and Maddon would be leaking it to Twitter-world even before they'd sat down with the man himself.
*And the man getting let go wouldn't be leaking it to twitter before even knowing about it himself!
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-need-get-their-pitching-order-or-else-entire-foundation-could-crumble-epstein-maddon-bosio
Some more interesting Theo comments, and some interesting Mooney comments/thoughts.
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We're gonna be badasses again next year.
I have no doubt.
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If, as seems likely, we go into next season with a slightly above average rotation and below average bullpen, we will probably be competing with the Brewers for the NL Central. Perhaps high 80s, low 90s win total. To separate ourselves, we would need to acquire a #1/2 starter and/or completely revamp the bullpen to improve it dramatically.
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I'll buy that. I wouldn't count the Cardinals out of that mix, too - they're going to spend a lot of money this winter.
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If, as seems likely, we go into next season with a slightly above average rotation and below average bullpen, we will probably be competing with the Brewers for the NL Central. Perhaps high 80s, low 90s win total. To separate ourselves, we would need to acquire a #1/2 starter and/or completely revamp the bullpen to improve it dramatically.
The Cubs are still one of the better teams in MLB.
Getting a great 1/2 would be nice, but it isn't a need. Quintana, Hendricks, Lester is going to be in the upper echelon of production for a teams top 3 starters and is just fine. A #4 starter worthy of the playoff rotation should be the goal and an #5 that is better than Anderson improves the rotation over last year.
The bullpen was 14th in fWAR last year. Losing Davis will be difficult to replace, but the Cubs also have some impact arms that could make this pen really special if their control improves just a little bit. The pen needs work, but I have a lot of confidence that Theo is up to the task. There was a freak on on this board when Duensing was signed, but he was one of the Cubs better relievers. I mean the Dodgers second best reliever this year was a 33 year old minor league free agent. Bullpens are hard to predict.
The Brewers had a lot go right for them this year. Maybe Chase Anderson becomes a 3 WAR pitcher at 29. Maybe Nelson comes back from his torn labrum, but he is going to miss a large amount of 2018 and that is a huge loss. Maybe Hader can step in or some of their you guys will. Travis Shaw is in Chris Taylor territory for me, he needs to prove that his improvement is permanent. Add Thames and Pina to that mix too. The Brewers have a lot of questions.
The Cardinals could be good again, but they are getting old. Are Pham and DeJong just this years version of Gricheck, Piscotty and Diaz or are the real. Their rotations is Martinez, Wacha, Wainwright and Weaver. Maybe Reyes comes back, maybe it takes him 18 months to recover. He had control/command issues before TJS and that is the last thing to return. Maybe they are great or maybe they are just kinda average. The Cardinals bullpen makes the Cubs situation look amazing. Rosenthal is going to miss all of 18 or at least a large chunk of it. They have Brett Cecil, Tyler Lyons and Matt Bowman returning. The Cardinals can spend a ton of money to try and paper over these issues. It might work or the might end up 4 games over .500 again after the spent $113 like last off season.
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Four days old but a pretty good piece on the Cubs' future from Joel Sherman:
http://nypost.com/2017/10/21/diagnosing-the-next-steps-for-cubs-to-remain-a-title-contender/
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Thanks Chris. That was was a good read.
"But the issue goes beyond just the ninth inning. Chicago might have to find a couple of relievers it has faith in. This is the right market place for that. There are a lot of free agent relievers coming off of strong years such as Jake McGee, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow, Pat Neshek, Addison Reed, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith and Anthony Swarzak."
I wonder if you could get say McGee to close, Shaw and Swarzak for the cost of Davis. That could give you McGee, Shaw, Strop, Swarzak, Edwards, Wilson, Montgomery for the pen.
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Patrick Mooney article on Albert Almora with some interesting quotes from Epstein and Scott Borus.
First Epstein:
“The real key for Albert,” Epstein said, “and his future development and what will dictate whether he reaches his very high ceiling or not is his ability to have really good, consistent at-bats against right-handed pitching (.711 OPS this year).
“He’s proven that he destroys left-handed pitching (.898 OPS) and is a real weapon that way – and any team would love to have him certainly against left-handed pitching. He made really nice strides against right-handed pitching as the year went on. This kid worked so hard using the slider machine, just seeing slider after slider after slider in the cage.
“Training his eyes to recognize – not so much to hit it, although it helps hitting mistake breaking balls – but just really training his eyes on what lanes to expect the slider to come out of, say, with runners in scoring position or two-strike counts and really learning which one to lay off, to put himself in position to get favorable counts to get fastballs or get mistake pitches that he can drive.”
Then Boras:
“The Cubs are such a good team is the (only) reason he’s not playing every day,” Boras said. “I remember we had the conversation when he came to the big leagues. He wasn’t playing, and I said: ‘Albert, the goal here is not learning how to play every day in the big leagues. The goal is learning how to win in the big leagues. You get to learn that at a young age. Take advantage of it, because it’s going to be so valuable. You’re going to be able to share this when you are an everyday player.’”
http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/albert-almora-jr-ready-show-cubs-he-can-do-bigger-and-better-things-epstein-boras (http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/albert-almora-jr-ready-show-cubs-he-can-do-bigger-and-better-things-epstein-boras)
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....."There are a lot of free agent relievers coming off of strong years such as Jake McGee, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow, Pat Neshek, Addison Reed, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith and Anthony Swarzak."
That could give you McGee, Shaw, Strop, Swarzak, Edwards, Wilson, Montgomery for the pen.
I like your line of thinking, blue. Brett Cecil was $30.5/4 for Cardinals, Cubs have plenty of discretionary money for a couple of guys like that. Koji was $6. So you'd think if they figured to commit $25-30/year on FA relievers over the next 3 years, that would chew up a chunk of their cash, but they could reshape the bullpen pretty significantly.
Not sure the pen will become a strength, money doesn't buy success, and it may be a problem again. And there is something to having a known, trusted, confident, shut-down guy for the 9th inning, so that not every 9th inning is an ordeal.
But, despite the late-season failures, Edwards and Strop and pre-Cub-Wilson gave a lot of good innings during the season. Montgomery too. I think Theo's comments about trying to throw more strikes and being less afraid of hard contact might be good for each of those guys.
With the weirdness of relievers, it's not inconceivable that Wilson will come back and be quite effective. Or that Rondon might show up healthy, get locked in, and give a very good season.
Obviously very different to give enough competent innings in the regular season to get into the playoffs; without actually being a knockout shut-down guy in the playoffs. Should be interesting to see how they spend their money relief-wise.
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I guess part of the reason is I have a tough time seeing who the knock out reliever is that the Cubs can trade for. The only guy that has been rumored to be on the market is Britton, but he has a lot of questions and I have doubts that the Orioles will actually trade him.
One guy who I sold short on is Mike Minor. He was fantastic last year, but the 2 TJS scare me a lot.
I think you can add a lot of depth to the Cubs bullpen in this free agent class in the $30 million and under reliever range without affecting the Cubs ability to lock up the young guys or go after 2018 free agents. I would be quite happy with 2-3 free agent relievers, Cobb and inning eating 5th starter.
Anibal Sanchez and Drew Hutchinson would be some interesting starter to reliever guys if you could get them on a minor league deal for me.
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....I think you can add a lot of depth to the Cubs bullpen in this free agent class in the $30 million and under reliever range without affecting the Cubs ability to lock up the young guys or go after 2018 free agents. I would be quite happy with 2-3 free agent relievers, Cobb and inning eating 5th starter....
Not sure about the innings-eating 5th starter. Not that interested in wasting money on a bad starter.
But yeah, I think if they were to pay the price for a Cobb-level guy, and take a shot at it with four starters and wing it for #5, that would make sense, and seems pretty sensible.
5th starter could be whatever. Some take-a-shot guy, like Anderson was this year. Or Montgomery. Or Tseng. Or some old junker scouting guy. Cubs won a whole lot of games two years ago with Wada and Richard and Haren and Cahill and Dallas Beeler.
But it's the #4 guy who needs to be competent.
And if the bullpen is deep and good, you can better cover for a wing-it #5.
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Not sure about the innings-eating 5th starter. Not that interested in wasting money on a bad starter.
You'd basically be looking for a Lackey (2017) level starter on a 1 year deal, maybe a little better.
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Looking at guys who could fill those 4 and 5 spots in the FA class: Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Francisco Liriano. I still think you go after Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn not only to better yourself but to make your closest competitors have to find replacements.
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Also surprised to see that Jaime Garcia is only 31. Too bad his middle initials are DL.
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More coaching changes for the Cubs:
Patrick MooneyVerified account @MooneyNBCS 1m1 minute ago
#Cubs hire Chili Davis as hitting coach and add Brian Butterfield as new third base coach. Andy Haines promoted to assistant hitting coach.
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Cobb would make a great addition as a 4th starter.
I'd be surprised if they go after Darvish - our core is going to get really expensive sooner rather than later, and I'd be surprised if Theo wants to commit +$50M/yr to 2 starters (Lester + Darvish), unless the purse strings are much looser than it seems. I think it's much more likely they try to acquire a guy like Archer, etc.
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More coaching changes for the Cubs:
Patrick MooneyVerified account @MooneyNBCS 1m1 minute ago
#Cubs hire Chili Davis as hitting coach and add Brian Butterfield as new third base coach. Andy Haines promoted to assistant hitting coach.
So is Mallee out? Did I miss something?
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So it appears that there will be many changes among the coaches.
Bosio out, with no replacement yet.
Mallee replaced by Davis.
Hinske left to become hitting coach with the Angels, replaced by Haines.
And apparently Gary Jones must be out as 3rd Base Coach, since Butterfield has been named to that position.
So much for Joe's statement about how much he wanted all his coaches back.
(And Dave Martinez could be gone as well)
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Wow wow wow wow.
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From what I have heard, Chili Davis will be a great addition.
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You have to wonder how much the player exit interviews play into these coaching changes. If there's frequent anti-"Coach X" sentiment, that could at least partially drive decision making.
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Twitter doesn't lie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Story on Butterfield
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/69713750/attention-to-detail-red-sox-third-base-coach-brian-butterfields-calling-card/
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"So much for Joe's statement about how much he wanted all his coaches back." Ron
Amen. Credibility is taking a hit.
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Oops. I guess that means I'm questioning if the World Series Championship happened. I apologize.
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Interesting that Hickey wasn't announced....
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You have to wonder how much the player exit interviews play into these coaching changes. If there's frequent anti-"Coach X" sentiment, that could at least partially drive decision making.
Good point.
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Maybe they just view Davis and Butterfield as upgrades and weren't expecting them to be on the market.
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Maybe they just view Davis and Butterfield as upgrades and weren't expecting them to be on the market.
Renteria Syndrome.
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From a Sun-Times piece:
Maddon said that the coaching staff shakeup was all about “availability” and who is on the market.
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Cubs claimed Jacob Hanneman back from the Mariners and DFA'd Freeman.
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Gotta scapegoat somebody, and the coaches are the most expendable.
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John Mallee @JohnMallee 2h2 hours ago
I would like to thank the Chicago Cubs for the amazing opportunity to be part of a great tradition and organization for the last 3 years. I left a great Houston Astros organization to be closer to home with my family and to help my hometown team win a World Series. We did that.
49 replies 242 retweets 1,501 likes
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You have to wonder how much the player exit interviews play into these coaching changes. If there's frequent anti-"Coach X" sentiment, that could at least partially drive decision making.
I was wondering about that myself. Maybe even not so much player dissatisfaction as revealing information about the game planning, etc coaches provided to players?
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"Quote. Maddon said that the coaching staff shakeup was all about “availability” and who is on the market."
Like Delmar said, the Renteria Syndrome. Makes good sense to me.
That would also suggest that Hickey's coming to the Cubs, even if that hasn't been announced yet.
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Gotta scapegoat somebody, and the coaches are the most expendable.
Certainly the most expendable. But don't think they needed to scapegoat anybody if they didn't want to. They've seemed OK with saying how amazing it is to reach LCS back-to-back-to-back, with a world championship in the middle, and how punishing the World series hangover is, etc..
If they wanted, could easily have said they liked the cast and were more than willing to take another shot with the same good people.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MooneyNBCS/status/923677427959812096
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Certainly the most expendable. But don't think they needed to scapegoat anybody if they didn't want to. They've seemed OK with saying how amazing it is to reach LCS back-to-back-to-back, with a world championship in the middle, and how punishing the World series hangover is, etc..
If they wanted, could easily have said they liked the cast and were more than willing to take another shot with the same good people.
I'm not 100% sold on that.
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https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.northsidebaseball.com%2Fforum%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D1841
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Thanks for links, Jeff.
So, new batting coach, new pitching coach. Hope they can each help some guys out.
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Cobb to the Cobbs seems a pretty damn likely bet now. He loves Hickey.
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Martinez is reportedly in the lead for the Nationals job and the Cubs could go after Farrell for the bench coach.
Bosio rumored to be heading to the Tigers.
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Would love to see Farrell here as a bench coach. But I'll believe Davey actually gets a managerial job when it happens.
Have so many postseason managers ever been fired in the same season?
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Marc Topkin Verified account
Not really .. and lotsa chatter that ex-#Rays bench coach Dave Martinez has real shot at #Nationals job
Sort blurb Hickey and the Cubs and why he left the Rays
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/former-rays-pitching-coach-jim-hickey-joins-cubs/2342501
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So Wade Boggs just congratulated Martinez on getting the Nats job on Twitter.
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David Ross come on down...
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Anthony Rizzo has won the Roberto Clemente award
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-anthony-rizzo-roberto-clemente-award-20171028-story.html
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Love Rossy, but I’m all about John Farrell for that job.
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It's strange that Boggs tweeted that 2 hours ago and no one like Rosenthal or Heyman has said anything about it yet. You'd think they'd give some kind of confirmation or denial.
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Dear Cubs Fans,
"We never quit!" Our memorable team chant never rang more true than this season. Powered by the camaraderie in the clubhouse and gutsy performances on the field, our remarkable team transformed a challenging start into another deep postseason run - a truly impressive feat as we are just the second World Series champions in the past 15 years to win their division the year after hoisting the trophy.
Years in the making, our unprecedented third consecutive NLCS appearance required a little grit, a lot of hard work and overwhelming support from you - the most loyal fans in the game. While we fell short in the quest to defend our title, rest assured our future is bright. Built for sustained success, contending is now the expectation, not the exception. As we enjoy this new era of Cubs baseball together, our bond is even stronger. There has never been a fan base that has given more love to one team for so long. We cherish your relentless belief in our team and support of our organization.
In addition to the progress we've made on the field, we remain focused on restoring our beautiful ballpark and developing the surrounding area. Halfway through the 1060 Project, Hickory Street Capital was proud to introduce the Park at Wrigley - an inviting destination where families, fans and visitors gather whether the Cubs are at home or on the road. From spring festivals, summer movies and fitness series to farmers markets and winter ice skating, we'll continue to offer programming and events that contribute to our community. In early 2018, Hotel Zachary will begin welcoming guests and provide an authentic neighborhood experience featuring some of our city's most well-known hospitality groups. At the conclusion of the 1060 Project, we will have invested nearly $1 billion to ensure the vitality of our ballpark and vibrancy of our neighborhood, while also creating thousands of new jobs.
Far beyond the Friendly Confines, the character and heart of our team carried over into the community as we continue to grow the reach and impact of our charitable contributions. From improving local baseball fields to getting kids active and providing scholarships to deserving teens, the generosity of our players, partners, fans and associates is forging a brighter future for Chicago's children and families. As one of the most charitable franchises in sports, our team and Cubs Charities are on track to raise more than $6.5 million this year alone. We are excited to continue to find new and impactful ways to help kids achieve their full potential and deliver on our goal of being a good neighbor.
While it's always rewarding to celebrate our shared wins from the past season, like you, we can't "wait ‘til next year." This simple expression, once used to console us, now motivates us deeply as we embrace our role as a consistent contender. We look forward to a productive offseason and fielding a competitive team for years to come.
Let's Go Cubs,
Tom Ricketts
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It's strange that Boggs tweeted that 2 hours ago and no one like Rosenthal or Heyman has said anything about it yet. You'd think they'd give some kind of confirmation or denial.
Chelsea Janes, a nationals reporter has a tweet that no offer has been made to anyone. No clue.
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I presume that the "no announcements during the World Series" policy is not changed by a congratulations on Twitter.
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https://www.draysbay.com/2017/10/5/16417124/tampa-bay-rays-jim-hickey-pitching-coach-retrospective
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Fox 5 DC is reporting Martinez will get the Nats job and be announced after the WS is over according to Cubs Insider.
Robert Murray mentioned on Twitter that Todd Greene could be a bench coach option.
https://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/09/25/todd-greene-managerial-candidate-talks/
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I figured Sandberg for the bench job.
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I see what you did there.
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Fox 5 DC is reporting Martinez will get the Nats job and be announced after the WS is over according to Cubs Insider.
Robert Murray mentioned on Twitter that Todd Greene could be a bench coach option.
https://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/09/25/todd-greene-managerial-candidate-talks/ (https://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/09/25/todd-greene-managerial-candidate-talks/)
From the linked article:
“Todd is a cross between Mike Scioscia, Joe Maddon, and Mike Matheny,” says the scout."
High praise there. ;)
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I figured Sandberg for the bench job.
Ryne or Cindy?
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Craig, thanks for the article about Hickey.
Seems like he brought some principles to Rays' pitchers and got strong buy-in to them...and got his guys to believe in themselves.
Self-confidence seems a given for the best-of-the-best type guys who can climb the mountain to make it to the major league level...but most of those guys go through crises of confidence at the MLB level, too, playing against other players who are also ridiculously talented and the many other obstacles other teams can through at them today with advanced scouting and sabermetric support.
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Heyman is confirming Martinez to the Nats.
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I've been thinking of what the perfect, yet reasonable offseason would look like. For me it would be somehow winning the Otani sweepstakes, trading Baez for Michael Fullmer and resigning Wade Davis to a 3 year deal. That gives the Cubs a young, controlled, cost effective rotation for several years going forward and leaves Montgomery in the swingman, 6th starter role in case of injury. I know, this is pie in the sky thinking, but hey, a man can dream.
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Ryne or Cindy?
Yes
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I've been thinking of what the perfect, yet reasonable offseason would look like. For me it would be somehow winning the Otani sweepstakes, trading Baez for Michael Fullmer and resigning Wade Davis to a 3 year deal. That gives the Cubs a young, controlled, cost effective rotation for several years going forward and leaves Montgomery in the swingman, 6th starter role in case of injury. I know, this is pie in the sky thinking, but hey, a man can dream.
Perfect offseason- Ohtani, Cobb for the rotation. Marrow (if Cameron’s 2/18 is realistic), McGee and Shaw. Plus Hinkey teaching Edwards, Wilson and Maples to throw strikes and Chili Davis fixes Heyward.
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Heyman is confirming Martinez to the Nats.
Mark Gonzalez in the Tribune: First base coach Brandon Hyde could transition to become the bench coach, a position he held under Edwin Rodriguez and Jack McKeon with the Marlins in 2010-11.
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Perfect offseason- Ohtani, Cobb for the rotation. Marrow (if Cameron’s 2/18 is realistic), McGee and Shaw. Plus Hinkey teaching Edwards, Wilson and Maples to throw strikes and Chili Davis fixes Heyward.
This is pretty close to mine too, except I'm not too interested in Morrow with his history of being injured and mediocre from 2013-16. I'd rather target Addison Reed, but he'd be more expensive which probably forces them to downgrade one of McGee or Shaw.
And any ideal offseason plan of mine also involves getting Yelich in return for some of the major league depth. I still think they were hurt more than expected this year by the loss of Fowler and good Zobrist.
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I think it's going to be Cobb for the rotation and another offseason of trying to get lucky on the bullpen with quantity over high-priced quality. Maybe Schwarber or Happ dealt for pitching if the right deal emerges, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Otani is a pipe dream, but however minuscule the chances are you have to throw everything you can into it. He's a game-changer but he's likely going to an AL team, probably the Yankees.
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A few hearts stopped by this tweet:
Willson ContrerasVerified account
@WContreras40
Follow Follow @WContreras40
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Thanks Chicago for so much fun and love.! I’ll keep you all in my heart ❤️ There is not better place to be than CHICAGO ❄️
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He's retiring to spend more time with David Ross' family?
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I assume it's some kind of reference to heading south for the winter, but the wording is pretty ROFL.
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So bench coach, hitting coach, and pitching coach, probably the top 3 sub-manager coaching positions, yes?
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On most staffs yes.
I think Borzello and Hyde have more importance than what their titles are. I think Butterfield will too.
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I was reading Cameron’s chat on Fangraphs and he seems to think that the Cubs are going to make an attempt to get Archer from the Rays and use Russell as trade bait. He doesn’t think that Schwarber and Happ combined would have the value to get it done. He also thinks that Happ would bring back a pitcher better than Folty from the Braves.
I’d be kinda conflicted on Archer for Russell +. They both have some risk, but it would give the Cubs a really cost controlled rotation. While I think Russell is better than Baez, the drop off isn’t huge and Happ/Zobrist/LaStella could handle second.
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Depends on what the + is.
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Mark Gonzalez in the Tribune: First base coach Brandon Hyde could transition to become the bench coach, a position he held under Edwin Rodriguez and Jack McKeon with the Marlins in 2010-11.
Mark Gonzalez again:
If Hyde moves to the bench, a potential replacement at first base is Doug Dascenzo, the Cubs' minor-league outfield and base-running coordinator who was an outfielder for the team from 1988-92. Dascenzo, 53, was hired as first-base coach in the 2014-15 offseason before Maddon arrived and Hyde reassigned from bench coach to first base.
Dascenzo also pitched a little bit.
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Depends on what the + is.
I can't see them doing a 1:1, but I also can't see the + being really great either.
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There is no way the Rays would do that.
They are really high on Willy Adames, and they would want a bounty of A level studs for Archer. Trading for a Super 2 eligible SS doesnt really help them that much.
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Russell wouldn't give them any additional team control. And if he broke out, it's not even clear he'd give them cost savings beyond 2018. I don't see why the Rays would do that--I think they benefit more from just holding on to their best pitcher.
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I don't think the Cubs have the guns to deal for a pitcher of Archer's caliber anymore. If they acquire SP via trade it's going to be high-ceiling guys with lots of warts (like Arrieta was).
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There is no way the Rays would do that.
They are really high on Willy Adames, and they would want a bounty of A level studs for Archer. Trading for a Super 2 eligible SS doesnt really help them that much.
I could see trading Archer for somebody like Russell if they don't want to rebuild and they think that they have the young pitching to replace him. Long shot sure and I'm not 100% convinced the Cubs would do it either.
I just looked up Adames and he is 1 year and 8 months younger than Russell.
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Rays are looking to move to Hillsborough County.
Last week Hillsborough announced they have secured the land needed for a new stadium in Ybor City area of town. There is still about 300 million in gap financing that is missing and it will likely go to the polls to determine if the tax payers want to approve that type of expense. (link - http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2017/10/24/hillsborough_busines.html )
I would be shocked if they somehow decided to short circuit a fairly lengthy rebuild here and ship off their biggest trade chip for anything short of what the Sox got for Q. Some believe that Archer is worth a Sale type return... and i'd wager that is what the Rays are going to be looking to get. 2-3 high Ceiling high floor class A level players.
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Rays are looking to move to Hillsborough County.
Last week Hillsborough announced they have secured the land needed for a new stadium in Ybor City area of town. There is still about 300 million in gap financing that is missing and it will likely go to the polls to determine if the tax payers want to approve that type of expense. (link - http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2017/10/24/hillsborough_busines.html )
I would be shocked if they somehow decided to short circuit a fairly lengthy rebuild here and ship off their biggest trade chip for anything short of what the Sox got for Q. Some believe that Archer is worth a Sale type return... and i'd wager that is what the Rays are going to be looking to get. 2-3 high Ceiling high floor class A level players.
Might be a bad time to do a full rebuild, but a retooling they might be able to sell to the public.
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I think most fans here in Tampa are aware they are "re-tooling" as we speak, have been doing so since the David Price trade. Its probably another 1-2 years before they are in a good spot.
On local sports radio its basically a forgone conclusion that they are retooling for a new stadium in Tampa, or for a new stadium outside this area entirely. No one be-grudges the Rays on any of this... esp considering the state of the trop, and potential for increase in taxes for a new stadium.
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Pitcher W L QS K HA ERA WH
one 10 14 19 219 178 3.51 1.14
two 13 9 23 173 188 3.31 1.19
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Need more info..........
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How many innings for each? Walk rate?
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Pitcher IP BB
one 202 68
two 201 51
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Stroman is pitcher 2 and I think pitcher 1 is Archer, but some of his numbers are wrong. I like Archer more than Stroman, but both are nice.
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No. 1 is Archer, but what numbers are wrong? #2 is not Stroman
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Pitcher #2, believe it or not, is Lackey. I don't see Archer's allure.
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On what planet did Lackey have a 3.31 ERA this year?
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10-12, 60 BB, 249 K, 4.07 ERA, 201 IP
I'm at a loss on pitcher 2 then, he's the only one with 201 IP and 13-9 this year.
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On what planet did Lackey have a 3.31 ERA this year?
10-12, 60 BB, 249 K, 4.07 ERA, 201 IP
I'm at a loss on pitcher 2 then, he's the only one with 201 IP and 13-9 this year.
I see what I did. Those are three year averages. Sorry. But still...
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Pitcher #2, believe it or not, is Lackey. I don't see Archer's allure.
Archer is owed $6.4, $7.666, $9, $11 million over then next 4 years. His luxury tax salary number is $4.25 million/year to go with Quintana's $4.2 million. That helps with signing the core and maybe adding a Bryce Harper.
Beyond that he strikes out a lot people and doesn't walk many. Chris Archer is amazing.
PS: Lackey was a good pitcher until he turned 38 and Archer is going to be 29 for almost all of next year.
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His salary numbers alone make him too expensive (talent-wise) for the Cubs to acquire him.
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I don't see any universe in which a 29 year-old Archer and a 38 year-old Lackey are remotely comparable, or where 3-year averages are a good way to measure a 38 year-old pitcher's projectability. Archer is a very good pitcher, probably a legit #2, and Lackey is pretty much done.
But that's not the issue. The issue is cost, and Archer - as a very good pitcher and cheap, is somebody the Rays would have to be blown away by an offer to deal. I don't think that's in the best interests of the Cubs.
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It's a shame Kikuchi Yusei won't be posted until after next season at the earliest, because as a pitcher he may end up being just as good in MLB as Otani.
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Will the team not post him or he doesn’t want to come over? A 26 year lefty that hits 98 would make a lot of money this year, but he might get lost in next years class.
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Will the team not post him or he doesn’t want to come over? A 26 year lefty that hits 98 would make a lot of money this year, but he might get lost in next years class.
Every report I've seen is that Seibu isn't likely to post him until after the 2018 season at the earliest. It is a strong FA class, but he's an elite talent - he'll draw plenty of interest. As far as the club is concerned all that matters is that they get the max posting fee, which is a lock.
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2018 will stretch what teams can pay. You could be looking at Kershaw, Price, Keuchel, Cole headlining the pitching class and then all the position talent. I’d think his chances at an overpay are better when your looking Darvish, Arrieta and Tanaka as your competition.
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What does Seibu care?
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Not saying they care. I’m surprised he isn’t pushing to come over this year.
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It's not the Japanese way to threaten to make a public stink or hold out, and clubs generally try not to screw a player over for too many years when they really want to leave (apart from the Giants). They'll post him when they post him but they definitely don't want to post him now.
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Sharma on Schwarber.
https://theathletic.com/141372/2017/10/31/examining-trade-chips-in-cubs-quest-to-solidify-rotation-kyle-schwarber/
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The problem with dealing either Schwarber or Russell right now is that, to an extent, you'd be selling low. They both have a lot of value but not as much as they would have after 2016 (or might after 2018).
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My guess is that Russell's value isn't depressed that much, but given what no-glove bats went for at the trade deadline, I can't imagine Schwarber is worth much right now...
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Those bats were not as young or cost-controlled as Schwarber and lacked his enormous offensive upside. Plus. there might be someone out there intrigued by using him at least part-time at catcher.
It was only a year ago that Schwarber was apparently enough to bring back Andrew Miller. I know his value is depressed from its peak but he has real value.
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I doubt there's much interest in Schwarber's catching potential. He's barely played there since being drafted and the way he plays the outfield he'd do some catching if he were better at it.
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Some people here have a really high bar for LF defense...
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/01/the-jeff-samardzija-trade-rumor-connection-returns-is-he-the-right-fit-this-time-around/
I wonder what it would take to get Samardzija from the Giants.
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How do we feel about Tanaka?
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Might be smart to go after him after a down year, but I don't know if we have what the Yankees would want.
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Tanaka is intriguing, but I suspect the trade cost on Shark would be lower. I'd be very into that if it were the right deal.
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I think Tanaka is probably going to opt out of his contract. He was just as good as he'd ever been in the second half--his down year was based almost completely on being terrible in May. He can get more than the 3 years, $67 million he's owed if he goes out on the open market, so I'd expect him to do that.
He'd be a good target if they're convinced his arm is going to hold up. But isn't it a given that his elbow is going to eventually pop and he'll have to have TJ surgery? I thought that was the assumption after he hurt his elbow a couple years ago.
Tanaka's #1 most similar player on Baseball Reference is Alex Cobb. I bet Cobb gets half as much as Tanaka this offseason. So I'd prefer Cobb since he's already past his TJ rehab.
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Cobbs is likely going to get a 3-4 deal, maybe around for McCarthy got 4/$48 million? Tanaka will be a lot more. I'd really like to keep some powder dry for next years FA class if possible. I'd prefer Cobb to Tanaka.
Depending on cost, I'd be a yes on Samardzija. If the Giants eat some of his contract he'd get a decent return, but not any of the MLB guys. If they are just trading his contract I don't think the cost would be too much.
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I do think the medical concerns will depress Tanaka's value somewhat. How much? Hard to say. His velocity was his best as a major leaguer this past season.
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I don't want anything to do with Tanaka and his arm. He should have had TJ surgery when he was first injured. Whoever signs him is going to pay for a lot of rehab.
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HOyer can decide, but I'd think any of the Tanaka/Samardz/Cobb type guys, you add to Hendricks/Q/Lester, and staff may be deep enough to make a pretty good run for the NL Central. Maybe somebody of that level, or maybe step it up for Darvish or Otani or whomever.
If you really believe playoffs is a lottery, and you're OK with just getting in, any one of those types of Cobb/Samardz type guys could give you reasonable hopes of getting past St. Louis/Milwaukee.
For 5th starter, I assume they take a shot and wing it. Try something clever/cheap that doesn't cost a ton; possible strong value-per-dollar if best-case works out. Maybe it's like 2018 Brett Anderson, or what Mahomes or Feldman were like when we signed them, or last-winter's Charlie Morton. Maybe a Wada, or an Eddie Butler or Jacob Turner. Maybe Tseng. Maybe Montgomery. Maybe like Jason Hammel of 3 and 4 years ago. Who knows, maybe even the now version of Jason Hammel himself! (Had a 4.37 FIP, right around Lester's ERA....) I just figure they'll go cheap/creative/take-a-shot with 5th starter, and only invest seriously in 4th starter.
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I don't want anything to do with Tanaka and his arm. He should have had TJ surgery when he was first injured. Whoever signs him is going to pay for a lot of rehab.
The fact that Tanaka's velocity was up substantially this season suggests rehab was pretty successful, at least in the short term.
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HOyer can decide, but I'd think any of the Tanaka/Samardz/Cobb type guys, you add to Hendricks/Q/Lester, and staff may be deep enough to make a pretty good run for the NL Central. Maybe somebody of that level, or maybe step it up for Darvish or Otani or whomever.
If you really believe playoffs is a lottery, and you're OK with just getting in, any one of those types of Cobb/Samardz type guys could give you reasonable hopes of getting past St. Louis/Milwaukee.
For 5th starter, I assume they take a shot and wing it. Try something clever/cheap that doesn't cost a ton; possible strong value-per-dollar if best-case works out. Maybe it's like 2018 Brett Anderson, or what Mahomes or Feldman were like when we signed them, or last-winter's Charlie Morton. Maybe a Wada, or an Eddie Butler or Jacob Turner. Maybe Tseng. Maybe Montgomery. Maybe like Jason Hammel of 3 and 4 years ago. Who knows, maybe even the now version of Jason Hammel himself! (Had a 4.37 FIP, right around Lester's ERA....) I just figure they'll go cheap/creative/take-a-shot with 5th starter, and only invest seriously in 4th starter.
At some point I think this team needs a SP who's capable of being a difference maker in a short series, not just helping you get to the postseason. But given the massive needs in the bullpen and the SP market, this might not be the winter where that happen.
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106 days until pitchers and catchers report.
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Bookmark for your reference.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/mlb-offseason-key-dates.html
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MLB Trade Rumors has their free agent predictions up. They have the Cubs getting:
Darvish at 6 years, $160 million
Addison Reed at 4 years, $36 million
Jake McGee at 3 years, $18 million
I'd be on board for the Reed and McGee deals (though I'd prefer to cut a year off each of them and offer an extra million or two per year), but I'd be a pretty hard no on Darvish at that price. He's a pretty good #2, but he's not an ace who deserves one of the largest pitcher contracts in baseball.
They have Alex Cobb getting 4 years, $48 million from the Twins. If that's what he gets, I would be surprised if the Cubs weren't at least a finalist for him.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html
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Only interested in Darvish if he can deliver Otani.
Deeg do you know anything about Mike Mikolas? He struggled with the Padres and Rangers but did well in Japan. This year he had a 9K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. With the Padres out of the pen he averaged 94/95 and starting for the Rangers he was 92.7. He could be an interesting pen/5th starter guy.
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I'd rather give Arrietta that money, not saying I would.
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A guy just told me that Buster Olney said on Mike and Mike this morning that Darvish was tipping his pitches in the series.
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I wouldn't mind loading up the bullpen with salaried relievers as long as you can identify guys that won't completely crater within the length of their contract. Relief pitchers are so valuable and in demand that you can almost always trade them away without having to help pay down their contracts.
If your farm system starts producing viable relievers that you want on the big league club full time and not just riding the Iowa shuttle, you can always make room by moving a guy or two via trade.
Of course, the "identify guys that won't completely crater within the length of their contract" part is easier said than done.
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Only interested in Darvish if he can deliver Otani.
Deeg do you know anything about Mike Mikolas? He struggled with the Padres and Rangers but did well in Japan. This year he had a 9K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. With the Padres out of the pen he averaged 94/95 and starting for the Rangers he was 92.7. He could be an interesting pen/5th starter guy.
I don't know that much about him, except that the Giants are by far the richest team in NPB and they don't waste rotation spots on hack players. You don't put up the numbers Mikolas has in Japan without having decent stuff, and his velocity in NPB has been pretty consistent with what it was as a starter in MLB. I don't think Mikolas is a guy with a true knockout pitch, but he throws hard enough and has developed exceptional command. Upside to me would be a poor man's Mike Leake. He could be a decent back-end starter, but I wouldn't sign him with the intention of relying on him to be an anchor in the rotation by any means.
In Darvish's defense, there seems to be ample evidence that the balls were altered in the postseason. Verlander is certainly convinced - he says he literally learned a cutter on the fly because he didn't trust his slider enough to throw it. For a guy like Darvish, who throws hard but relies heavily on tricksy finger action on a wide range of pitches, sliicked baseballs could be a real problem. I'm not saying I'd pay him 6-$160, but I'd pay him more and for more years than Arrieta. His velocity is still elite and he was outstanding the entire time he was with the Dodgers until the WS.
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According to Edwardo Perez there was some hand movement in his glove that tipped his pitches. The Dodgers supposedly fixed another tipping issue when they got him.
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Tipping his pitches wouldn't explain how flat Darvish's breaking stuff was, though.
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Smooth ball also wouldn't explain why he was way, way, way, way, way worse than anybody else who pitched in the series.
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Could be a combo of fatigue, the ball and tipping his pitches. It just doesn’t have to be 1 thing.
I am generally against giving post TJS guys multiple years and $100+ million.
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Smooth ball also wouldn't explain why he was way, way, way, way, way worse than anybody else who pitched in the series.
Lots of guys were worse pitchers in the series than they had been before, especially on the Dodgers. And I would argue that Darvish is more of a "feel" pitcher than almost anyone else in baseball.
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INteresting to compare the core position groups.
Houston: Springer, Bergman, Altuve, Correa, and Gonzalez. That's a REALLY good core.
Cubs: Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Heyward. That's actually a longer collection of young position players.
The extra volume of guys could hypothetically make that a better core for the Cubs.
But Houston has 5 really, really good hitters, maybe 4 if you don't want to include Marwin.
Not sure if the Cubs will have more than 3 really good hitters.
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Have just started the Cubs Way book. Theo talks about a concept where you need to have 4 "impact" players. Got three with Rizzo, Bryant, and Contreras. For the moment, not sure we've got the fourth?
Part-way through Schwarber chapter. Appears that Theo just loved the guy, so fired up because Schwarber used F-word in interview, and so enthusiastic about Schwarber's leadership potential. Theo's perspective was that Schwarber is/was an impact bat. Theo routinely references his Boston experiences; so talks about Schwarber as a Big Papi bat.
Some hyperbole, and Schwarber isn't likely to reproduce Ortiz's offense, or Rizzo's. But Ortiz had a .234 season with Twins; Rizzo hit .141 for Padres, and then .233 in his second year in Chicago.
So I suspect Theo's still pretty reluctant to trade Schwarber, and will hope that like Ortiz and Rizzo, that Kyle will be able to make some adjustments. Perhaps blossom into a guy who might be able to support and sustain a .250 batting average in future, or even better.
Schwarber hit .211 while K'ing over 35% of his AB and strugglied with both spin and velocity, so maybe Theo will reassess the dream. But think they'll look at his 2nd-half numbers, where he hit .253/.335/.559/.894, and and think that might be sustainable, or perhaps even improvable. I expect he'll be back.
Would make a huge impact if Schwarber could evolve into an asset impact bat, even if platoon only.
Will be curious to see what ideas he and the Cubs have for improving his hitting. Maybe won't, just figure that his second half is good, don't mess with anything.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/cubs-claim-randy-rosario-from-twins.html
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Averaged 93.5 last season, FWIW.
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Fairly anti-HR in the minors.
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But think they'll look at his 2nd-half numbers, where he hit .253/.335/.559/.894, and and think that might be sustainable, or perhaps even improvable. I expect he'll be back.
Agree. Lots of reasons why his first-half numbers could have been anomalous (WS pressure/hangover, leadoff pressure, natural recovery from year off, etc).
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INteresting to compare the core position groups.
Houston: Springer, Bergman, Altuve, Correa, and Gonzalez. That's a REALLY good core.
Cubs: Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Heyward. That's actually a longer collection of young position players.
Cubs really have a lot more control of their players.
Cubs Insider has Rosario up to 97 with the fastball and a 90 mph slider. That is interesting and he was good against lefties in a SSS.
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Tanaka opts in with the Yankees. One less free agent.
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Didnt want Tanaka.
Dont want Darvish either.
Ill take Arietta over both of them and Im not 100% certain I want him back.
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What would a Cubs-Rays trade involving Brent Honeywell look like?
Pipe dream?
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Didnt want Tanaka.
Dont want Darvish either.
What a coincidence.
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What would a Cubs-Rays trade involving Brent Honeywell look like?
Pipe dream?
Most likely, the Rays don’t trade guys when they are cheap. I’ve wonder what Happ is worth in a trade and so far from various chats people seem to think he’s worth a lot. The most recent question was Happ for Teheran and the chatter through the was worth more. I wonder how much the Cubs are interested in a guy with little experience for the rotation too.
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What a coincidence.
It has nothing to do with anything but facts.
Japanese pitchers are usually ragged out before they even get here and Tanaka or Darvish havent done anything to prove me wrong.
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Darvish is 18th out of 277 qualified starters in fWAR since he started his career in 2012 (between Arrieta at 17th and Samardzija at 19th). He's 50th out of 277 in innings pitched.
Tanaka is 22nd out of 177 qualified starters in fWAR since he joined the Yankees in 2014 (between Hamels and Hendricks). He's 39th in innings pitched.
There are good reasons to want to avoid them at this point in their careers--Tanaka's elbow is questionable, and Darvish is going to get paid like a surefire ace when he's really more of a #2 at this point. But they've earned more than what they've been paid since coming to MLB.
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I just now looked at the free agent starting pitchers in this class and Ill stand by my stance.
If Arietta and Darvish are the headliners I think we're all in agreement that we want to stay away from Boras and Arietta and I dont want to pay Darvish what he's gonna expect with him only being 2 years removed from TJS.
Sign the second tier starter that you like best and then maybe a lottery ticket SP for insurance and spend the rest on the pen.
I bet we're looking more at the trade market.
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Didnt want Tanaka.
Dont want Darvish either.
Ill take Arietta over both of them and Im not 100% certain I want him back.
The chance of keeping Arrieta just fell with Tanaka's decision, and will fall even more if Darvish enter the FA market. With both of them off the market, Arrieta's price would rise considerably, and the Cubs' effort to resign him will correspondingly fall with his increased contract demands.
In other words, if you really want the Cubs to keep Arrieta, it is much better if Darvish and Tanaka were both entering free agency.
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Mark FeinsandVerified account @Feinsand 22m22 minutes ago
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Hearing Rays are likely to make a qualifying offer to Alex Cobb. Not surprising after strong season (179 IP, 3.66) 1st full yr post-surgery.
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So that would mean the Cubs would lose their second round pick and $500,000 of IFA money to sign him, but if his contract is less than $50 million ion guareented money vale the Rays get nothing.
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Sharma on Javy Baez.
https://theathletic.com/147403/2017/11/06/examining-trade-chips-in-cubs-quest-to-solidify-rotation-javier-baez/
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How many here subscribe to The Athletic?
Money well spent?
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If we subscribe, does that make us an Athletic supporter?
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If we subscribe, does that make us an Athletic supporter?
I like it, primarily because of Sharma.
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Cubs added Carasiti, claimed Cory Mazzoni from the Padres and outrighted Martin.
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Chris CotilloVerified account @ChrisCotillo 5m5 minutes ago
Chris Cotillo Retweeted Chris Cotillo
Just these nine players received QOs. Confirmed.
Chris Cotillo added,
Chris CotilloVerified account @ChrisCotillo
QO list expected to include these nine players: Arrieta, Cain, Cobb, Davis, Holland, Hosmer, Lynn, Moustakas, Santana.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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So based on the new CBA, what is the impact to the Cubs if (when) Arrieta and Davis sign somewhere else?
And what happens if the Cubs sign Cobb (or Cain...I guess there's an outside chance they could be interested in him)?
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So based on the new CBA, what is the impact to the Cubs if (when) Arrieta and Davis sign somewhere else?
And what happens if the Cubs sign Cobb (or Cain...I guess there's an outside chance they could be interested in him)?
I thought I read that Cain is retiring?
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So based on the new CBA, what is the impact to the Cubs if (when) Arrieta and Davis sign somewhere else?
We'll receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the draft’s third round.
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I thought I read that Cain is retiring?
Lorenzo, not Matt.
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And what happens if the Cubs sign Cobb (or Cain...I guess there's an outside chance they could be interested in him)?
We'll give up our second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2).
If we sign more than one QO free agent, we'll give up our third-highest pick for the second signing and so forth, but not lose any additional international pool money.
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We'll receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the draft’s third round.
Only if their contract has $50 million in guaranteed money. From what I’ve read the $50 million doesn’t effect the signing team losing picks and IFA money.
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Only if their contract has $50 million in guaranteed money. From what I’ve read the $50 million doesn’t effect the signing team losing picks and IFA money.
True. I presumed both Jake and Wade will easily sail past $50 million guaranteed.
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I thought I read that Cain is retiring?
Lorenzo, not Matt.
Doofus
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Who is Doofus Cain?
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You misread. That is Doofus Curt.
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I can get this kind of abuse at home.
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The first ZiPS projections for 2018 have the Cubs winning the NL Central by 3 games. Keep in mind that these projections use the current roster...so it assumes the Cubs have a Quintana/Lester/Hendricks/?/? rotation and no closer. With a 3 man rotation and no closer, the Cubs are still favorites for a third straight division title.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/21265001/early-projections-2018-standings-zips-loves-la
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I still like Lynn as our #5. Means you only have trade or pay big for one big starter.
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I still like Lynn as our #5. Means you only have trade or pay big for one big starter.
You assuming Lynn would be cheap?
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No, but I doubt he's going to go as high as guys like Darvish and Arrieta. Even Cobb, now that he's been QOed has high hidden costs.
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Cobb is far more preferable to Lynn. Who wants to watch a fatass with no control.
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Oops. Just read the Cards made a Qualifying Offer to Lynn. Bastards must be reading his board!
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Lynn and Cobb will probably go for about the same money. If you go strictly by career numbers and raw stuff, I don't think there's any question Lynn is the better pitcher.
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Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. You get the bonus of moving him from the AL to the NL, which will help his stats. Cobb also spent the second half, when he had better results, doing a right version of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he lost the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If he can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.
Cubs Insider did a piece about Chacin having a better slider than every pitcher in the game not named Scherzer. His pitch sequencing was sub optimal and with a change there he could be significantly better.
Throw in the possibility both Japanese pitchers are coming over and someone like Chatwood, who isn’t my favorite, there are plenty of starting options on the market that are better than poorly controlled fastball pitcher Lynn.
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Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb. He has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.
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Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb. He has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.
Legitimate, of course, but I prefer Lynn. Better velocity, much better K-rate - and on the whole, better results. I prefer SP who miss bats, given the choice. In reality, both are probably #3-4 starters assuming their elbows don't blow up.
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Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. .... Cobb also spent the second half, when he had better results, doing a right version of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he lost the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If he can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.
What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap". FA pitching is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand means price goes up. The same things you like about him might also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's.
So I suspect there's going to be aggressive competition for him, and the highest bidder is going to need to pay higher/riskier $$/length than other teams think is reasonable. Almost by definition, he's going to get more years and dollars than the rest of the market thinks is good value.
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I guess it depends on what you consider "cheap", but I don't see anyone arguing either Cobb or Lynn could be had for less than 4-50, 5-65, something like that. Maybe compared to what someone like Arrieta or Darvish might bring, that might be considered a good value.
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I'll take Cobb for 4/50.
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What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap". FA pitching is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand means price goes up. The same things you like about him might also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's.
He's only thrown over 150 IP twice, so that is going to be held against him and make him cheaper. It is a risk, but nobody is giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher like him to 4 years and he got 4/$48. I think s 3-4 year deal is most likely for him. If he had multiple years of 180+ IP he would get more than what Samardzija got. So he's cheap because of risks, but he has some upside too.
Cobb has a career ERA-/FIP- of 89/92. His best year is 72/87. Cobb made an decreasing his change up usage and going with his fastball/curve. He finished the second half with a 20% K% and Aug was 25.4% and Sept/Oct was 23.1%. This was after he made an adjustment in how he pitched and his GB% returned to his career normal. His release point was off on his split change-up so there isn't anything saying he can't get his best pitch back.
Lynn on the other hand has a career 88/94 ERA-/FIP- so it is really close to Cobb, almost identical. Last year though it was 81/113, which isn't reassuring. Looking deeper into his numbers his K% fell from a career 22.3% to 19.7% last year. His second half his K% dropped to 17% and his BB% increased to 11.3%. Then the big problem is his pitch mix. He throws a 4 seam fastball 39%, 2 seam fastball 42.4%, cutter 10.7%. He throws a version of his fastball 92.1% of the time and his Curve and change up are below average pitches. His fastball velocity has decreased and is likely to continue going down making his best pitch/frequently thrown less effective. So in short Lynn is losing velocity and has no other pitches to help and is getting less effective. I would stay far, far away from him.
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I'll take Cobb for 4/50.
...nobody is giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher like him to 4 years and he got 4/$48. I think s 3-4 year deal is most likely for him. ....
I'm with Play, I'd also be happy to sign him for 4/50. For reasons that you have nicely articulated, blue.
I may be way off, and what do I know. But I'm predicting that you guys are significantly underselling the market that he's going to get.
I'm predicting he'll get a deal significantly better than 4/50. Lots of teams want a pitcher, lots of teams have the capacity to spend 4/50 and well beyond, and lots of teams are interested and willing to take a chance. I'm also hesitant to assume that former deals are a good predictor for what this winter's deals will go for.
Think he's going well north of $50/4, and that the winning bidder will be a team that's just willing to take on more and probably longer risk than the losing bidders. Obviously with options, a deal can conditionally go beyond 4 years even if it's not fully guaranteed.
If you want to play it safe, don't dabble in FA. But if you need a piece, you may need to over-risk and over-spend and over-length to get that piece. May not be Hoyer and Theo. But somebody is going to take a chance well north of 4/50, I think....
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I would like to see the Cubs sign both Cobb and Lynn, if they can do each for about 14 million per year. That would finish the rotation, and should still leave them some money to shore up the bull pen.
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Lynn is also one year off TJS, so to conclude he's "losing velocity" seems pretty silly to me. Most guys regain velocity the 2nd year back after TJS.
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If it's a tossup, I would always sign players away from our biggest threats. St. Louis, Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers... You fill a hole and guarantee one in the other team. I'm sure that's what the Cards were thinking with Fowler, although I doubt we would have resigned him. We did it to them with Lackey. Sure that can backfire, but since the free agent system was created, it's what the top teams do to each other. That's why I would pursue Rosenthal before the Cards sign him to a minor league deal. Word here is that the Cards are in on Santana, JD Martinez, a trade for Stanton, and Arrieta and Davis. They will go hard for Davis. If nothing else, they want us to go higher to try to keep him.
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Cardinals with JD Martinez could be pretty scary.
I've wondered about the Cubs going after him. Adding a really good, professional hitter in the middle of the lineup would really, really make a difference. Over last four years his composite OPS has been well over .900, so it would be like adding another Rizzo-caliber bat to the lineup.
I know Theo loves Schwarber, but if you were to add a Martinez, you could then free up Schwarber for trade. Not sure quite what he'd bring you, but somebody who'd at least have a shot to become good.
Think an extra really, really good bat who's an every-day threat makes the lineup more relentless and takes some pressure off the other guys. And gives the lineup a better chance to be good even during weeks when Bryant or Rizzo, or both, are cold.
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I love JD Martinez's bat, but the problem with him is that he's already almost unplayable in the outfield defensively. He's also over 30 now, so there's not much chance that he's going to improve. At some point during his next contract, he's almost definitely going to have to move to DH full time.
I agree that another every day bat is a need for this team, though. I'd prefer it to be more of an on-base guy for the top of the lineup rather than a slugger. I really believe the "you go, we go" effect with Fowler was bigger part of their success in 2016 than anyone realized, and not having that in 2017 was a major reason the lineup was so much more inconsistent.
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Phil Rogers is doing his best to get attention:
Phil Rogers @philgrogers
@Giants have interest in @Cubs' Jason Heyward, w/Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon to offer. Very complicated deal but not impossible.
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Lynn is also one year off TJS, so to conclude he's "losing velocity" seems pretty silly to me. Most guys regain velocity the 2nd year back after TJS.
That isn't true. Velocity is one of the first things to return. It either comes back or it doesn't. Command and control can take awhile to return, but not velocity.
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Phil Rogers is doing his best to get attention:
Phil Rogers @philgrogers
@Giants have interest in @Cubs' Jason Heyward, w/Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon to offer. Very complicated deal but not impossible.
Tear their **** arm off and run Theo.
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Why would the Giants do That?
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I love JD Martinez's bat, but the problem with him is that he's already almost unplayable in the outfield defensively. He's also over 30 now, so there's not much chance that he's going to improve. At some point during his next contract, he's almost definitely going to have to move to DH full time.
I agree that another every day bat is a need for this team, though. I'd prefer it to be more of an on-base guy for the top of the lineup rather than a slugger. I really believe the "you go, we go" effect with Fowler was bigger part of their success in 2016 than anyone realized, and not having that in 2017 was a major reason the lineup was so much more inconsistent.
Yeah, good points. Is there a FA leadoff guy available? If so, I haven't been thinking of him.
Martinez is a good bet to be as good or better an OBP guy than Fowler, it's not like you're giving up any OBP with a bat like that.
I'm fine to defer to you guys and Theo on the defense, didn't realize it was that bad. Schwarber's isn't exactly good either; so if you were to replace a DH in left with another DH, would it really be that big of a defensive decline? Heh heh, if he's really a mile worse than schwarber defensively, that is kind of scary!
Still, I admit that part of me thinks that hitting, hitting, and hitting every day is just such a team-changer. You replace a .211-BA Schwarber with a .300-hitting Martinez, every day, and without needing to platoon, and that really makes it easier to sustain innings and grind a pitcher. I know for Theo's Red Sox champs, Manny Ramirez wasn't an asset in left defensively, but an elite bat in the lineup changes a lot. And most games there aren't many balls hit to left anyway, most of which are easy plays or sure hits regardless, without necessarily discriminating much between an awful left fielder versus a merely bad one.
I know Cubs have pitching problems. But I'm a huge believer that a consistent, high-scoring offense can cover up a multitude of sins. And I think it actually can make pitchers better. Pitching with a lead, or with the expectation that team will come back and score runs even if you give up a solo-HR, would seem to have a freeing influence, and allow guys to throw more strikes rather than needing to nibble so much. Which seemed to be very much the Lester/Q/Montgomery/Arrieta approach as starters, and the Bosio/Contreras approach with the bullpen guys as well.
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How reliable is Dan Bernstein? Does he know anything? Here is his tweet in response to the Rogers tweet:
Dan Bernstein @dan_bernstein
This is true. I have heard similarly.
It really makes no sense for the Giants. As much as some people here don't like him, Samardzija is still a pretty good pitcher. If they ate a little of his contract, they could get pretty good prospects back. And I'm not high on Melancon going forward, but at least he's under contract for only 3 more years. And with a good 2018, you might get lucky and have him opt out of the last two years of his deal.
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Yeah, good points. Is there a FA leadoff guy available? If so, I haven't been thinking of him.
I think the closest thing to a leadoff guy on the market is Lorenzo Cain. He wouldn't be bad--he hit .300/.363/.440 in 2017--but I'm not sure he's going to be worth what he's going to get paid in his 32-35 year old seasons. Still, he wouldn't be the worst fit.
I'm going to keep beating the Yelich drum until the roster is settled. He's been a consistent 4.5 fWAR guy over the past 4 years--he's more of an impact guy than people realize. The Marlins are publicly stating they're not going to trade him...but I think that's a negotiating ploy. If they're dealing Stanton, it's hard to believe they'd hold anyone on the team back if they got players that they wanted.
I know Cubs have pitching problems. But I'm a huge believer that a consistent, high-scoring offense can cover up a multitude of sins. And I think it actually can make pitchers better. Pitching with a lead, or with the expectation that team will come back and score runs even if you give up a solo-HR, would seem to have a freeing influence, and allow guys to throw more strikes rather than needing to nibble so much. Which seemed to be very much the Lester/Q/Montgomery/Arrieta approach as starters, and the Bosio/Contreras approach with the bullpen guys as well.
I agree with this. Plus, I'm not convinced the Cubs' pitching problems are as bad as they're being made out to be. I think people are judging the loss of Arrieta, Lackey, and Davis in terms of their reputations, not their actual performance. Those three guys combined for a total of 4 fWAR this year--upgrading over that is not hard. They're going to make up more than half of that WAR just by having Quintana on the roster all year. Add Cobb, a 5th starter who can eat 150+ innings with a 4.00ish ERA, and two of the second tier relievers (Reed, Shaw, McGee, Morrow, Minor, Swarzak, or Nicasio), and the 2018 pitching staff is likely significantly better than the 2017 version.
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Does Heyward have a no-trade? Zobrist and at least one more do, as I recall.
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Yeah, Heyward has a no trade.
So does Melancon. So does Samardzija, though his is limited to 22 teams (and the Cubs weren't one of the restricted teams at midseason).
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Given what you know about them so far, would you offer any of the non-Bryant young Cubs the Anthony Rizzo contract this offseason? How about if you had to bump the 2020-and-beyond values by $2-3 million per?
18:$0.75M, 19:$1.25M, 20:$5M, 21:$5M, 22:$7M, 23:$7M, 24:$11M, 25:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout), 26:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout)
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I would offer that contract to Russell, Baez and Contreras. I would seriously consider offering it to Happ, and I wouldn't totally rule it out for Schwarber, depending upon the views of the scouting department and medical doctors.
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The Giants have serious OF problems, and Heyward would be a real asset for them defensively. Samardzija would be a nice fit for the Cubs. Not sure how to make a trade work, though, even forgetting about the no trade clause.
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How about if you had to take Cueto instead of Samardzija?
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Samardzija over Cueto.
The Cubs pay money and tell Heyward he's a great guy and it didn't work out. If he stays with the Cubs he'll be Zobrist and Almora's back up.
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If he stays with the Cubs he'll be Zobrist and Almora's back up.
Similarly, Sam Dyson was really effective for the Giants last year outside of his last two games in September. If the Giants told Melancon he had to win the closer's job back, he might be more willing to move on.
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Think that's a pretty fair trade considering the loss of Heyward's defense would be pretty stark depending on his replacement. Only real problem with Samardzija--and it's not a small one--is he allows a lot of home runs despite his home games in AT&T park.
Heyward's owed 12M more over the three years Samardzija has left, but the Cubs would be out from under the last 65M of Heyward's deal.
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Heyman tweeted that Lackey is not retiring and plans to pitch next year. Hopefully it's for someone other than the Cubs.
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If my math and Cot’s contracts is correct Samardizja and Melancon are owed $107.4 through 2020 and Hayward is owed $135.1667 through 2023 because the Giants backloaded their contracts and Hayward’s was frontloaded.
The neat feature is that for luxury tax purposes Samardizja and Melancon are worth $33 million/year and Heywad is $23 million.
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I wonder how many Cub fans are out there who will be shocked when Arrieta signs with someone else.
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I wonder how many Cub fans are out there who will be shocked when Arrieta signs with someone else.
What? Do you really think he would do that? Say it ain't so, Jake!
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If my math and Cot’s contracts is correct Samardizja and Melancon are owed $107.4 through 2020 and Hayward is owed $135.1667 through 2023 because the Giants backloaded their contracts and Hayward’s was frontloaded.
The neat feature is that for luxury tax purposes Samardizja and Melancon are worth $33 million/year and Heywad is $23 million.
How is that "neat"?
For us, that lux-wise, we'd be getting a rotation guy (and if healthy perhaps a pen piece) for "only" $10 hit in lux? Whereas if we sign a FA rotation guy plus a pen guy, while keeping Heyward, the lux-increase would be much, much, much higher than $10?
And perhaps also a motivation for them, that they would knock $10 off, and free up lux space for buying other assets?
Interesting that a salary exchange like that would save the Cubs <$30M longterm ($107 vs $135). But would clear Heyward's commitments off from when Bryant etc. are free agents. An extra $23/year might be kinda welcome during the 20's.
Melancon was to have pronator-syndrome surgery. Suggested 2-3 month recovery, so theoretically could be fully recovered for next season. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/09/04/breaking-giants-mark-melancon-to-undergo-surgery-for-rare-muscular-syndrome/
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How is that "neat"?
For us, that lux-wise, we'd be getting a rotation guy (and if healthy perhaps a pen piece) for "only" $10 hit in lux? Whereas if we sign a FA rotation guy plus a pen guy, while keeping Heyward, the lux-increase would be much, much, much higher than $10?
And perhaps also a motivation for them, that they would knock $10 off, and free up lux space for buying other assets?
Interesting that a salary exchange like that would save the Cubs <$30M longterm ($107 vs $135). But would clear Heyward's commitments off from when Bryant etc. are free agents. An extra $23/year might be kinda welcome during the 20's.
Melancon was to have pronator-syndrome surgery. Suggested 2-3 month recovery, so theoretically could be fully recovered for next season. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/09/04/breaking-giants-mark-melancon-to-undergo-surgery-for-rare-muscular-syndrome/
You wouldn't have to replace Heyward externally. Happ and Zobrist could take over RF, so no increase in pay roll for RF. So they Cubs would essentially be getting a relief pitcher and starter for $10 million a year, which you might be able to get 1 relief pitcher for a little less than that. If you keep Heyward the cost is $23+ SP + RP, which will be much more than
The other neat thing is getting rid of the extra years allows the Cubs to clear payroll when Russell and Bryant will be entering their last year of arbitration. I get the appeal for the Cubs, but I'm not sure why the Giants would want to do it unless they really hate Melancon.
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There's no chance the Giants are remotely interested in any iteration of this. It's a non-story.
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Giants beat writers are now tweeting that this rumor is nonsense.
Keep in mind it originated with Phil Rogers.
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I heard Bumgardner is a throw-in.
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The trade would be a -1 for the Giants. No way in hell they do that.
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The best part of this Heyward to the Giants story is Roger's follow up tweet:
One additional motivation to deal Heyward: Would improve @Cubs position in recruiting Shohei Ohtani. He and Heyward both hit left-handed.
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True dat
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Trading Hendricks should also help recruit Otani, in that case.
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I wonder how many Cub fans are out there who will be shocked when Arrieta signs with someone else.
Personally, I will be shocked if Arrieta does NOT sign with someone else. I would like to keep him, but I doubt that the Cubs will give either the dollars or years it will probably take.
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Personally, I will be shocked if Arrieta does NOT sign with someone else. I would like to keep him, but I doubt that the Cubs will give either the dollars or years it will probably take.
That's what we've been saying. Idiot.
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So we agree. That is refreshing, since you are so seldom right that it is not often I get to say that.
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http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260793498/5-ways-tyler-chatwood-could-be-charlie-morton/
An interesting case for Tyler Chatwood.
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Ken RosenthalVerified account @Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
More
Brandon Hyde will be #Cubs’ new bench coach, sources tell The Athletic. #Mets had offered him bench-coach job. #Cubs stepped up to keep him.
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He was renteria's bench coach, is that correct?
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He was renteria's bench coach, is that correct?
That is my recollection.
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Yes he was Renteria's bench coach and previously was the bench coach for the Marlins as well. I think he started out in the front office with the Cubs, but moved back into coaching. A lot of the Cubs minor league instructors at one time had times to him as well.
http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/11/09/notes-jed-hoyers-discussion-cubs-offseason-strategy-spiegel-parkins/
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Jon Heyman released his top 80 free agents today with predictions by both him and an "expert," who is apparently pretty good at predicting contracts. Here is the full article:
https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/
The relief market looks good and affordable, no reason to go after Davis:
Wade Davis: Expert: 4/$64; Heyman: 4/$72
Addison Reed: Expert: 4/$35; Heyman: 3/$27
Jake McGee: Expert: 2/$15; Heyman: 2/$12
Bryan Shaw: Expert: 2/$12; Heyman: 3/$24
Juan Nicasio: Expert: 2/$14; Heyman: 2/$12
Anthony Swarzak: Expert: 4/$28; Heyman: 3/$21
Brandon Morrow: Expert: 3/$23; Heyman: 3/$24
Lots of options, and this doesn't even include guys like Neshek, Minor, and Watson. If those prices are fairly accurate, I'd love to see the Cubs get McGee, Reed, and either Shaw or Nicasio for a total of about $21 million per year. In fact, at those prices, I'd be disappointed if the Cubs didn't end up with at least McGee and Shaw/Nicasio.
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If they are close on Cobb’s market then a big no for me.
McGee, Shaw and Nicasio would be my choices at those prices/years. I like the idea of Reed, but he scares me.
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At those prices, I don't think there's really a wrong solution as long as they stay away from Davis and Holland. I'd be perfectly fine with going into Spring Training with 2-3 of McGee, Shaw, Nicasio, and Reed plus Wilson in a battle for the closer job.
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Also, I wouldn't hate Cobb at Heyman's price (4 years, $58 million). But the expert's 5/$75 would be awful--might as well pay the extra money for Darvish and fill the 5th spot very cheap if you're going to commit that much to Cobb.
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You have the expert and Heyman reversed.
I really wouldn’t want to pay Cobb that much at either price to be honest, he needs to be under $50 million for me to like it.
Chacin/Chatwood would be more interesting to me especially if you could get both. Tillman/Mikolas/Miley would all be sorta gambles for 5/6th starters. Put me down for a 2 year Pineda contract too.
Mike Minor is another interesting lefty, but the 2 TJS are scary.
Drew Hutchison on a minor league deals too, and maybe Jared Cosart.
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I would go for Cobb at 4 / 58, although under 50 would be obviously much better.
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Maybe I’m crazy, but I could see someone paying $100 million for Cobb. Quality pitching is tough to find especially in free agency.
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Maybe?
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Just from listening to Hoyer on the radio, it sure sounds like the Cubs want to keep money available for 2018 FA. I think they’ll go cheap and look more for Charlie Morton 2.0.
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They should be pretty fresh going into 2019 then.
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Just from listening to Hoyer on the radio, it sure sounds like the Cubs want to keep money available for 2018 FA. I think they’ll go cheap and look more for Charlie Morton 2.0.
Chatwood?
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Lackey? :)
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Robb probably wants Vargas.
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Seems like there are quite a few pitchers of the medium level. From that fanrag suggestion, lots and lots of guys they project in the $6-10/year range relief-wise.
Some of those guys will turn out quite well; others not so much. It's really going to put a burden on the Cubs scouts to identify the rights ones; and on Hickey and Maddon to use them rightly so that they can be productive. But if they can identify the right guys and how to use them, they could help themselves a lot.
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Springfield Illinois paper is reporting Hickey has signed as pitching coach. I know we all expected it, but was this reported as fact before and I missed it?
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Hickey was reported to have accepted offer a week or two back.
Hoyer said Hickey was coach on radio interview this week.
Hoyer said they'd have an official announcement on all the coaches within the next week or two.
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Otani has been posted.
The Cubs F.O. has been excellent at identifying cheaper pitchers that out preform, I’m not to worried.
The Cubs made the NLCS this year and they need to replace 2.9 fWAR in their rotation. The 2016 Cubs got 4.6 fWAR out of Lackey and Hammel. I think they can easily beat 2017 and come close to 2016 numbers by going cheap.
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Does anyone else see think our future Right Field is going to be Harper?
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Does anyone else see think our future Right Field is going to be Harper?
Not after we trade Bryant for a relief pitcher.
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This article has an interesting analysis of Cobb:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/10/new-pitching-coach-jim-hickey-really-seems-to-want-the-cubs-to-land-free-agent-alex-cobb/
Last year, he was basically a 2 pitch guy who gave up a lot of hard contact. I'm fine with paying him 4/50 as a #4/5 type starter, but he comes with some uncertainty and I would hesitate paying him much more. And I would definitely not give him 5 years.
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Which is a problem, as he's almost certain to get 5 years.
I'd try real hard to get Lynn on a 4-year deal if at all possible.
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Not after we trade Bryant for a relief pitcher.
Bryant to NYY for Chapman. Then Harper signs with the Yankees next off-season. That sounds like some 1980's and 1990's Cubs **** (poopoo) moves.
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Hope Schwarber has a big year, sign Harper and trade Kyle for pitching. Done.
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If there was just another example of a post TJS surgery with declining velocity and declining K% who recently signed a free agent deal......
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubstalk-podcast-jed-hoyer-how-handle-offseason-trade-rumors-heyward-lackey
Hoyer podcast. Very laid back, no sense of urgency, and not many hints of agenda.
Did specify they'd like to get the bullpen to throw more strikes. Talked about relievers emerging. FA market is relatively deep for relievers but otherwise not as a whole.
Emphasized that they've already won WS, and want to consider 2019 and 2020 as well as 2018. Gave the sense there isn't urgency for this year.
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There's always the opportunity to pull something off midseason if the Cubs appear to be a move or two away from getting over the hump.
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There's always the opportunity to pull something off midseason if the Cubs appear to be a move or two away from getting over the hump.
That's the approach that cost us Torrez, Jimenez and Cease. Not saying you don't do it when you have to, but there are drawbacks to relying on that.
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There's always the opportunity to pull something off midseason if the Cubs appear to be a move or two away from getting over the hump.
That's the approach that cost us Torrez, Jimenez and Cease. Not saying you don't do it when you have to, but there are drawbacks to relying on that.
I was thinking along the same lines as Deeg. Too often the midseason trades are much more costly. As teams are sorting out their rosters and seeing where they need to fill holes from day one during December often allows them to consider trades they wouldn't think about midseason. Just think about the return we could have gotten on Schwarber last winter. It's still a business and if the hometown team can make a trade to keep the faithful hopeful and excited about the coming season, winter is the time to do it. JMO
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Of course, there's unpredictability in the way your opening day roster will perform. Some players will undoubtedly step it up unexpectedly whereas others will under perform. In addition to strengthening the roster overall, it's also important to strategically add pieces that you need. Not all needs are going to be evident during the offseason.
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Also will need some huge breakout summers for the very thin, very young minor-league system. They've already moved Torres, Jiminez, and Cease, as well as Soler, Vogelbach, Candelario, and Paredes over a 13-month period. Not much firepower left, for the moment, at least so it seems today.
But who knows, maybe by July a bunch from within Ademan, Alzolay, Albertos, Wilson, Little, Lange, de la Cruz, and Velasquez will be exploding and looking like tradable pieces?
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Alex Cobb is at least saying he'll prioritize winning over money:
https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/929084092129439747
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I'll be almost shocked if the Cubs don't sign Cobb after listening to him talk about Maddon and Hickey.
https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/929094837097418753
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I'm actually more worried about what, in desperation, the Cardinals may do than what the Cubs do.
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Sounds like a classy guy that it would be easy to like.
Whether he'd pitch well, or sign for a fair price, beats me! :)
Yeah, easy to envision signing a guy like that as 4th guy; signing some guys for relief; and kind of improvising/winging it for 5th guy.
For 5th I could easily envision "taking a shot" on somebody or two. If it works, great. If not, there's Montgomery as an option, and it's always possible to snag Dan Haren-type guy, or Turner like we had this year, or go with Tseng or whomever.
We also know that lots of good relievers were starters once. Could envision perhaps signing a couple of guys to compete for 5th starter, and if you're lucky maybe you'd get decent work for 5th plus have other end up being very effective for you in relief?
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So Cobb talks like he wants to join the Cubs, and has also said money isn't the biggest factor for him. I read something somewhere today (Bleacher Nation?) that said Hickey had a similar response when he was asked if he'd like Cobb to join the Cubs. We've heard Cobb's names in rumors the last few offseasons and trade deadlines too, so it seems obvious that the front office likes him. So it seems like there is a lot of interest from all directions.
It really seems like Cobb will be a Cub as long as they make a competitive offer and no one else offers him a blow away deal that he just can't turn down.
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Think Cubs may need to be willing to sign some "take-a-shot", but also be willing to cut some salaries, rather than just carrying a bad pitcher because you took a shot and lost.
Also think signing some "take-a-shot" starters with the full willingness/expectation that one (or two) might shift to pen might be a good thing. That might, hypothetically, support an adjustment in Cubs bullpen use.
To date, Maddon has been a committed quick-switch short-usage guy. He does NOT like to have his righties pitch to lefties. And most of his guys have been short-relief. Rondon, Strop, Edwards, not sure how often any of those three have pitched two full back-to-back innings. Or Duensing either.
Think it's hard to use starters as "go through the lineup twice" guys, then be willing to pull them out pretty quickly after that. If Monty is the only non-short man you've got in pen, and especially if you're going to habitually go ROOGY/LOOGY and do mid-inning switches frequently when an opposite-hand hitter comes up.
So I'd be interested in perhaps having some ex-starters who'd be very comfortable going 2-3 innings. And having Maddon/Hickey perhaps consider switching guys less quickly. You're going to lose some games, I get that. But maybe letting other relievers pitch full innings, or even two innings, more frequently, even if it involves facing some oppo hitters. But then having guys appear less frequently, and perhaps end up more well rested come October.
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I'll be almost shocked if the Cubs don't sign Cobb after listening to him talk about Maddon and Hickey.
https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/929094837097418753
Yeah,wow. Listening to that, if the Cubs want him, it seems awfully likely they will get him.
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Yeah,wow. Listening to that, if the Cubs want him, it seems awfully likely they will get him.
Yeah, I would almost bet on him ending up with the Cubs, but looking at his use in 2013 and 2014 under Madden, why did he only pitch in 22 games in 2013 and 27 in 2014?
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Yeah,wow. Listening to that, if the Cubs want him, it seems awfully likely they will get him.
Heh heh, I still can't quite get used to guys WANTING to sign with the Cubs! And especially on the grounds that they are safe/certain to be consistent contenders.
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An open question to the board: why don’t you hear the Cubs connected to Tyler Chatwood more? He seems to be the kind of target they like - a young SP with good stuff who seems readily tweakable. Probably can be had on a 2-3 year deal, and has been far better away from Coors.
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Yeah, he's under the sonar.
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I have the opposite opinion. I've feel like several Cubs bloggers and reporters are suggesting the Cubs should go after Chatwood, and I don't know why. He walks a ton of batters and can't stay healthy. The Cubs are really good already...they need stability in their two open rotation spots, not a guy who could be good if he'd suddenly stop getting hurt. They made that mistake with Brett Anderson last year.
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What? Brett Anderson was a mistake? That's heresy. I never would have said that.
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I certainly haven't heard all that much chatter about Chatwood, and he's been pretty healthy the last couple of seasons - 300 IP. 27 year-old FA who can average almost 95 as a SP are pretty rare commodities.
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Chatwood was on the DL once this year, and twice in 2016. And he pitched about 200 innings total in the three years before that. There is no reason to expect him to stay healthy.
In four of his six years, he's walked at least 4 batters per 9 IP. He's walked 4.2 batters per 9 IP in his career. The most frustrating thing about the Cubs in 2017 was their inability to throw strikes. They don't need more guys who can't consistently throw strikes.
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br, compare his splits. I think pitchers in Denver tend to be too fine, causing more walks. Chatwood's breaking pitch is better away from Coors, too. Evaluating a Colorado player or pitcher is full of issues.
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Chatwood has still walked about 4 batters per 9 IP away from Coors in his career. I'm skeptical he's going to improve on his away-from-Coors numbers just because he's no longer pitching half his games at Coors.
Only six pitching staffs had worse BB% than the Cubs this year: Orioles, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Reds, and White Sox. Those were also 6 of the worst 7 teams in team ERA, and 6 of the worst 10 in fWAR. In general, pitching staffs that can't throw strikes are bad. The Cubs really need more strike throwers, and Chatwood doesn't help.
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The Cubs need SP who can get good hitters out (well, they need SP period). Arrieta wasn't much a strike-thrower before we picked him up and that worked pretty well.
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Chatwood is super risky. He has had 2 TJS already as BR pointed out he walks a ton of batters and hasn’t to this point struck people out. The positives is that he gets a ton of ground balls and has spin rate on his curve ball that he only threw 10% of the time. His 4 seam fastball also has a high spin rate as well.
He is basically a younger version of Morton, but you have to change the type of pitcher he is and hope is control improves. He is risky. I would like something a little more secure as a fourth starter, but as a fifth starter he would be great.
Chacin is with his slider you could make him into Chris Archer lite. Just have him throw a fastball/slider and let him go 2 times through the order. He doesn’t have Archer’s fastball velocity which is the only draw back.
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A high spin rate on breaking balls = nasty breaking pitches, more movement and sharper break. A high spin rate on a four seam= less drop or what appears to be a rising fastball. A sinker you want to have a low spin rate. A change up depends on what you want out of it. A high spin rate change would have more velocity and less movement. A low spin rate change would have more movement and less velocity.
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How effective was Darryl Kile's curveball in Denver compared to St. Louis? My recollection is that he became Cy Young in St. Louis. Could explain why Chatwood doesn't throw the curve much in Colorado. Sucker doesn't break. Hangs and goes out. The Coors effect on both hitters and pitchers is dramatic.
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Chatwood's upside seriously undersold here. Fortunately I'm pretty confident Theo doesn't read this board.
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His stated reason was that he didn’t have a feel for the pitch surgery, but it usually had less vertical movement in Colorado. It looks like he tried throwing it more in August and it wasn’t a great month for him.
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Chatwood's upside seriously undersold here. Fortunately I'm pretty confident Theo doesn't read this board.
I don't think anyone is underselling his upside. He clearly has a lot of upside. I think what is being undersold here is his downside. It wouldn't be shocking if he broke out and became a legitimate TOR pitcher. But the more likely outcome is that he'll hurt his arm, or he'll regularly struggle to go beyond 5 innings because he racks up a huge pitch count.
I think Chatwood would be a really good risk for a team like the Orioles or Padres, who need a ton of pitching and need to hit on a couple upside players to have any chance to compete in 2018. But I'd rather see the Cubs be more conservative. They're going to be favorites in the division no matter who they have in the back two spots in the rotation, so my preference would be for a couple guys with lower upside but high likelihood of being 2-3 WAR pitchers who eat at least 150-170 innings.
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I just would like to point out there were 54 2-3 fWAR pitchers in the majors last year. They aren’t easy to come by.
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Good discussion. I'm pretty comfortable letting Theo and those guys try to come to a decision. Too complex for me.
1. Conservative approach might be OK for competing for and perhaps winning the division.
2. To win the World Series, they might need to convert on a higher-ceiling guy? Or maybe not, maybe Lester-Quintana-Hendricks-Cobb would be a plausible WS-rotation, if you had really good hitting and pen...
3. A #5 guy won't be high-ceiling without either a high price or high risk or both; only affordable-and-limited-length if some serious wildness and injury risk.
I'd love to see Cubs sign Chatwood as #5. They wouldn't unless they had reason to believe he had a solid chance to be good outside of Coors, and thought he had a reasonable chance to throw enough strikes.
I'd also enjoy adding two strike-throwers. Hopefully the offense is consistent and relentless, and the defense plays at a high level so that guys don't need to be afraid to throw strikes, even if some hard contact results sometimes.
Nibble less than bullpen and Lester and Quintana did this year.
I guess my feeling is to go for a Cobb-like #4, who mostly throws strikes; and then take a riskier shot on #5. Like Chatwood. If he flops or gets hurt, it's not the end of the world and you can improvise. But if he did emerge, and improve his command, and stay healthy, maybe you've got a steal.
To some degree, if you're going to win the World Series, some things need to break your way. A risky guy works out; a guy doesn't get injured. Maybe somebody outperforms their contract.
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I would generally be getting a higher floor guy #4 as that is someone who will be in the playoff rotation. I generally consider Cobb and Chacin to have higher floors than Chatwood. Going for a riskier #5 I think is a great idea.
The Cubs have been pretty excellent at picking up lower tier starters recently. The only flops I can remember are Scott Baker and Anderson and those were more injury issues.
The stat cast guy I linked above about Chatwood mentions Tyson Ross and Anibel Sanchez as potential bounce back guys as well. I’d generally be more interested in the then as minor league deal guys or 6th starter/bullpen options.
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mlbtraderumors.com predicted a $20/3 contract for Chatwood.
The chances of Chatwood signing for that little is zero. Not 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. Zero.
He'll get closer to $50 than $20. I want to say closer to $100 than $20, but I'm not quite that brave.
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Sure wish there was a way to save posts involving absolute certainty like this or predictions for later quick reference.
You know, like if someone were to confidently and repeatedly proclaim that a presidential candidate were toast.... stuff like that.
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So, a $1 get at those odds would get what? I may be interested.
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Sure wish there was a way to save posts involving absolute certainty like this or predictions for later quick reference.
You know, like if someone were to confidently and repeatedly proclaim that a presidential candidate were toast.... stuff like that.
You mean like the "Predictions" topic?
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Given his age, I wonder if Chatwood would consider signing a 1 year deal with somebody to prove he can be good outside of Colorado, then cash in big-time if he does. Given the glut of SP in next year's class maybe a 2-year is more likely.
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Yeah, if a guy is confident, taking a short deal and killing it later makes some sense.
I suppose from the player's side, a Heyward type contract makes better sense: guaranteed length if you stink, and an opt-out if you kill it.
Will be interesting if the Cubs end up making some creative contracts.
I also wonder how quickly they'll move?
I suppose calibrating the market for Happ may be step one. If they get somebody they like as 5th starter for him, rather than getting both via FA, that might influence how much $$ they have for the other spot.
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If Chatwood could get a Heyward type deal, I'm sure he'd take it in a flash. But he won't - which is why a 1 or 2 year might make sense for him.
As for Happ, if you guy you're trading him for is someone you view as a 5th starter, that's a hard pass from me.
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Sorry, should have said "other guy" instead of #5. We've got three starters, and we know we're going to sign at least one FA, so that makes four. It's whether the other guy also comes via FA vs in trade for Happ that's uncertain.
Don't think Happ is going to net a guy who's immediately going to slot ahead of Quintana in quality. But how the Happ guy versus the FA slot on the initial pecking order, and then how they end up slotting in reality, who knows.
I wouldn't object to trading Happ for a potentially good guy regardless of where he slots on the initial rotation ladder. For example, if you signed Cobb and traded Happ for a cost-controlled guy, I double Happ-guy would initially slot ahead of Quintana or Cobb. But they all get 30 starts, so if your 5th guy is excellent, that's a lot of wins.
And status changes. So an unproven talent may start #5, but finished #1 if he develops well. Hendricks was viewed as #5/#6 entering 2016.
Whatever, I'm just saying that they might trade Happ for one of the starters rather than necessarily using FA for both.
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You mean like the "Predictions" topic?
Sure.... if you want it used for predictions other than team record.
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Happ is worth far more than a fifth starter. I’m really struggling to see which pitcher is going to be available in the starting rotation or relief that the Cubs could trade for and would be worth a young MLB hitter.
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The problem is finding the right matchup. I wouldn’t trade Happ for a 5th starter. There ar plenty of young SP who are controllable who I’d trade Happ for in a heartbeat that Happ would never be enough to get. As ever, the problem is finding the right guy who’s actually available. If I were betting on it, I’d guess none of the young core is traded this offseason.
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AA getting hired by the Braves might open some options, but Happ isn’t really a fit with their needs and none of their major league starting pitchers are worth Happ alone.
Teheran has a nice contract, but his pitching isn’t great. Newcombe has a severe walk problem and Gohara has some make up issues. If they could get some minor league pitching prospects to go with Gohara or NewcombeI guess I could see something, but that is a risky trade.
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Yeah, if there isn't a fair-value young pitcher available for Happ, then of course you don't trade him, and just go with free-agent pitching.
It's not like Happ isn't a potentially valuable guy for the Cubs, particularly if he were to improve some. Zobrist is very near the end; Schwarber may get much better but may also just be a platoon .211 hitter; and Heyward's bat could make a lot of RF starts available to anybody who can hit. Also rare that both Baez and Russell are healthy and hitting well at the same time.
Tangent: Hard to find a fit, and teams rarely will trade talented pitching prospects, but could consider Happ for a minor leaguer.
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Tangent: Hard to find a fit, and teams rarely will trade talented pitching prospects, but could consider Happ for a minor leaguer.
Brent Honeywell
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Fangraphs top 50 free agents, with Dave Cameron's and crowdsourced contract estimates:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/
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AA getting hired by the Braves might open some options
Some writers have suggested it could be beneficial for the Braves to deal Inciarte now for someone with more power since they have Acuna ready to take over for him. If AA bought that logic, could an Inciarte/Teheran package be a fit for the Cubs? I guess this depends on how you feel about Almora's future at this point.
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I wouldn't complain about the trade, but I'm not sure Inciarte is a big enough upgrade to justify the cost. Teheran isn't my cup of tea as a pitcher, and Foltynewicz would give you more control as a 4/5 guy.
I think the best trade partners for the Cubs are the Braves and A's at this point.
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I happen to like Newcombe a lot - I think he has the stuff to be a #2 if he figures it out.
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USA today has the Cubs going $2 million over the luxury tax, which will affect the QO to Davis and Arrieta and penalties for signing a QO FA. It is a little weird because Cot's, before midseason trades had the $17 million below the threshold.
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USA today has the Cubs going $2 million over the luxury tax, which will affect the QO to Davis and Arrieta and penalties for signing a QO FA. It is a little weird because Cot's, before midseason trades had the $17 million below the threshold.
Too bad. Are you confident USAToday has it right?
I'm not doubting, and Theo who wasn't going to stop at Eloy probably wouldn't give pause to lux tax either, in order to get into the playoffs. But I'd think Cubs were pretty lux-tax aware.
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While none of us are sure how the luxury tax is calculated, I've always read that it's based on the AAV of contract plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits.
The Cubs used 47 players in 2017. I just added up what I presume the luxury tax figure is for each and added $13 million. The result was a shade less than $195 million. I did not take into account that some costs were paid by other teams (part of Quintana, part of J. Wilson, etc.).
That exercise would suggest that the Cubs won't owe the luxury tax.
Who knows?
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While none of us are sure how the luxury tax is calculated, I've always read that it's based on the AAV of contract plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits.
The Cubs used 47 players in 2017. I just added up what I presume the luxury tax figure is for each and added $13 million. The result was a shade less than $195 million. I did not take into account that some costs were paid by other teams (part of Quintana, part of J. Wilson, etc.).
That exercise would suggest that the Cubs won't owe the luxury tax.
Who knows?
Thanks, Jeff.
Others are smarter, but I tend to forget about the "plus around a $13 million allowance for benefits".
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Craig, here's the USA Today article.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/11/13/dodgers-mlb-luxury-tax-offenders-2017-top-payrolls/857918001/
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Man, that's a shame. Heh heh, Brett Anderson puts them over the lux tax! Oops!
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Or Martin. I wonder if the form they got includes the $13 million so USA is adding it twice.
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Rogers tweeting Cubs weren’t over.
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Patrick MooneyVerified account @MooneyNBCS
Source: #Cubs are not projected to pay the luxury tax this year after staying under the $195 million threshold.
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Jon HeymanVerified account @JonHeyman
4m4 minutes ago
cubs and dodgers are among teams showing interest in zach britton, who's back on the block.
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Patrick MooneyVerified account @MooneyNBCS
Source: #Cubs are not projected to pay the luxury tax this year after staying under the $195 million threshold.
Way to go, Mooney and Rogers! That's good. For the draft this year in particular, and for the international spending allotment, right? And the lux tax also has a proliferation factor embedded too, right?
It actually would have been surprising to go over. Think HOyer was quite aware of the lux tax line, and seemed to be making a point of trying to get under it last winter. They always try to position themselves to pick up some talent as needed at the deadline, so I would have expected they'd stay far enough under last winter to at least allow for some not-ginormous pickups like Q and Wilson.
Obviously staying under lux was a preference and not a priority, though. BEcause by all accounts they were pretty interested in Verlander, and his massive contract would surely have sent them flying past the line, no?
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Jon HeymanVerified account @JonHeyman
4m4 minutes ago
cubs and dodgers are among teams showing interest in zach britton, who's back on the block.
Unless his price is really low, I think the Cubs should stay away. So many warning signs last year--huge jump in walk rate, drop in strikeouts, multiple trips to the DL, and his velocity was down a tick. I would be scared to give up much value for him.
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Unless Britton is a straight salary dump, that's a firm "no" from me. I'm tired of giving up valuable assets for rental closers, especially ones coming off lousy years.
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why not just sign Reed and make him a closer. he did well filling in for Familia.
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That's my preference. Sign 2-3 of the second tier relievers and have them compete (possibly with Wilson too) for the closer's role. My personal preference would be adding some combination of Reed, Shaw, and McGee. But there are a half dozen others that would be fits too.
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Reed, McGee, Cobb and Chatwood would be a very solid mid-priced offseason.
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So many cheap bullpen options this year. I would be interested in a Gausman + Britton package, but I don’t have a clue why the Orioles would trade Gausman.
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No on Gausman. Bad, bad, bad face.
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Craig, you're in Twins country. What can you tell us about Kyle Gibson's raw stuff?
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Henry Blanco is going to the Nationals as their bullpen coach. He was a quality control coach with the Cubs.
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/what-not-paying-luxury-tax-means-cubs-and-alex-cobb
Mooney article, not well written, seems to say that Cubs will receive 3rd-round picks for Arrieta and Davis. That's not correct, right? They are second round picks, so long as they're really under the lux tax? Or are they really 3rd round picks?
2nd, in the remotely unlikely even that Cobb was to sign for under $50, would that then mean that you wouldn't NOT give up 2nd pick as compensation?
3rd, I wonder how that "$50" works, with incentives and stuff. I assume that would be $50 in guaranteed? Don't imagine there is any way he's going to sign below $50 guaranteed anyway. But just curious whether there might be a creative way to construct a contract, where it wasn't all guaranteed but perhaps there were really easy-to-reach triggers. For example, suppose only $45/4 guaranteed; but then year 5 is non-guaranteed $17, with a $4 mutual option (like Fowler had, I think, where he gets it whether Cubs opt out or he ops out), and with the Cubs losing their opt-out if he gets 30 innings between years 4 and 5. So, at worst he gets $49/4. With a super-teensy trigger for year 5 he almost surely gets $62/5. (Maybe even something like that isn't competitive, beats me.... Just trying to understand what the constraints are on squeaking under the $50 limit.)
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Craig, you're in Twins country. What can you tell us about Kyle Gibson's raw stuff?
Very pedestrian. He's bad, don't want him at all. Has a good/decent arm (velocity) but nothing special; I guess maybe faster than the Cubs limited-velocity rotation, but it's not like he's got a big power arm or anything; bad control; he's supposed to be a groundball guy but he gives up a million HR's; "bad face" guy; even when he gets some guys out he seems to be struggling and laboring; often needs a lot of pitches to labor through. Although on occasion when his location is on he can sometimes buzz through a lot of pitch-to-contact groundouts. His K/BB/HR ratios are really bad, and it's no fluke. Granted, I haven't watched him much, more likely radio while going somewhere. It's also my sense that he is NOT a move-to-the-bullpen away from being a really good reliever, either.
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Mooney article, not well written, seems to say that Cubs will receive 3rd-round picks for Arrieta and Davis. That's not correct, right? They are second round picks, so long as they're really under the lux tax? Or are they really 3rd round picks?
If the team was not a revenue sharing recipient or the free agent signed for less than $50MM guaranteed, the team will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the draft’s third round.
The picks will be just prior to the start of the third round.
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Thanks, Jeff, that's what my memory was, after 2nd round.
(What Mooney had written: "This status also means that if Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta and All-Star closer Wade Davis decline their qualifying offers and sign elsewhere as free agents, the Cubs will receive two third-round draft picks.")
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I've seen some that say the $50 only applies to revenue sharing teams. If it is a >$50 million they get a pick after the 1st round, <$50 the same pick as the Cubs.
Jesse Rogers seems to think the Cubs are going FA route and not trading from the major league team because Happ won't bring enough back.
He mentions Cobb and a reclamation project for a the rotation. He also mentions Mike Minor being a reliever of interest.
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He's certainly of interest to me.
No more assets for closers. Sign 2-3 good setup guys and let them fight it out with Wilson for the job.
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Unless Britton is a straight salary dump, that's a firm "no" from me. I'm tired of giving up valuable assets for rental closers, especially ones coming off lousy years.
Agree. Agree agree agree.
And now that we have zero farm assets, you can't trade for a valuable rental unless you're trading from the big-league roster.
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Jed Hoyer squashes the latest Phil Rogers make-believe rumor.
Jason Heyward - OF - Cubs
Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said Tuesday that the team is not shopping Jason Heyward.
There was some chatter last week that the Giants and Cubs might be working on something involving Heyward, but it sounds like no actual discussions ever took place. "That whole rumor was out of nowhere with zero base for truth," Hoyer said. "I think Jason has done a great job for us on defense, in the clubhouse, on the bases. He hasn’t been offensively where he was before getting to us, but he’ll get there. He’ll keep working hard. There is no point in going into hypotheticals." Heyward has batted just .243/.315/.353 in 268 games since signing an eight-year, $184 million contract with Chicago, but he has also earned two Gold Glove Awards in two seasons.
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I've seen some that say the $50 only applies to revenue sharing teams. If it is a >$50 million they get a pick after the 1st round, <$50 the same pick as the Cubs.
Jesse Rogers seems to think the Cubs are going FA route and not trading from the major league team because Happ won't bring enough back.
He mentions Cobb and a reclamation project for a the rotation. He also mentions Mike Minor being a reliever of interest.
Thanks Blue, for note on the $50M comp factor.
And for Rogers note on Happ's value and the likely resort to FA.
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He mentions Cobb and a reclamation project for a the rotation. He also mentions Mike Minor being a reliever of interest.
Rogers clarified the "reclamation project" statement by saying that he was talking more about a typical 5th starter type. So that could mean a pure reclamation project, but he also mentioned Sabathia and Lackey by name as players who could also fill that role.
I tend to agree with Rogers that there isn't going to be a big trade for a TOR guy. I just don't think the deal is out there. I still don't see the match for Archer that a lot of people think is there, and the Rays don't seem that interested in trading him anyway. It doesn't sound like the Blue Jays are going to make Stroman available. Cole might end up being available, but he's been more of a mid-rotation guy outside of his 2015 season and only has two years of control left. I think those are the only TOR names that have been speculated to be available so far this offseason.
I do wonder about guys like Odorizzi (coming off a bad year and getting expensive), McHugh (injuries in 2017 pushed him to 6th/7th on Astros depth chart), Corbin (5th starter on that team with only one year of control left, and Diamondbacks may need to use his money somewhere else), and maybe a few others. I wonder the Cubs might still be able to match up with some team without using the major league depth because those teams have motivations beyond just getting top value back.
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Lackey returning wouldn't surprise me.
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It's kind of interesting to imagine how the next season will evolve, and provide more context for the Cubs building plan.
Cubs have won WS already, and two other playoff seasons, and are likely to get into the playoffs more times future, so the Theo legacy is secured even if they never get to another WS or never rank among the top 2-3 teams in the league again in any future season.
But it's going to be interesting to see how some of the philosophies play out:
1. Accumulate hitters, trade for good pitching. They picked up a couple of rental relievers, and Eloy/Quintana. Not sure that's quite the quantity or quality of cost-controlled young pitching that was envisioned in the plan? Maybe if Happ and Schwarber explode this year, there might still be a chance for more.
2. Young hitters develop. Premise of the plan and Maddon's view is that young hitters develop and improve. What they had in 2015, the expectation was that by 2018 the improvement would be huge. But to some degree Russell/Baez/Schwarber weren't much better 2017 than 2015 (or Soler). (Baez numbers were better, as deeg will note). Think 2018 will be a big year to see whether Schwarber, Baez, Russell, Almora, and Happ show improvement. If not, I think it's going to be harder to assume that 4th year guys are just young and will start to figure things out in years 5 and 6.
3. Hangover plateau? Development is often non-liner, and has progression interrupted by periods of plateau or regression. Coming off WS they were all stars, perhaps not much perceived need to get better. If status-quo is 103 wins and WS, who other than Heyward needs to mess with success? But perhaps this year, after hitting badly first half and 2nd season, plus ugly situational hitting stats, perhaps there will be some motivation both organizational and individual to adjust?
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/how-wade-davis-returning-cubs-could-fall-place
Theo, and Mooney, talking about closer and Davis. Mooney makes a good point: with a lot of the big-market and contending teams set at closer, and with a lot of other interesting relievers on the market, how many teams will bid crazy on Davis?
Certainly Cardinals might be one team that's interested? Houston with the way Giles finished off, may have interest? Only take one team to give the extra year(s) or the extra dollars. But given supply and demand, not implausible to envision a scenario where Davis comes back at a deal that's anti-awful from the Cubs perspective?
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The problem with Davis is that even if his price tag falls, he's still going to cost somewhere around $60 million over 4 years. That's still at least twice what guys like Reed, Shaw, McGee, etc. are likely to get. And given that Davis' underlying numbers were no better than those guys this year, I don't think you can really project him to be much better than them going forward.
I just don't see any way the Cubs can bring in Davis and still improve as much as they would if they brought in Reed, McGee, and maybe even a third cheaper reliever for the same amount of money they're giving to Davis.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/13/another-closer-trade-the-cubs-have-reportedly-spoken-to-the-orioles-about-zach-britton/
More summary of rumors and Rogers. He mentioned the Cubs would be interested in a 3 year/$50-55 million deal with Davis. Additional starters mentioned Bucholtz and Mikolas from Japan.
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I fear a precipitous decline from Davis over the next 3 years. Just not that interested.
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Wouldn't it work for Davis to take the QO and go FA next year? 3/55 and the QO Aren't that different.
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I wonder how Davis profiles compared to someone like Eckersley, who remained pretty effective late into his career (as I recall).
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It's kind of interesting to imagine how the next season will evolve, and provide more context for the Cubs building plan.
Cubs have won WS already, and two other playoff seasons, and are likely to get into the playoffs more times future, so the Theo legacy is secured even if they never get to another WS or never rank among the top 2-3 teams in the league again in any future season.
But it's going to be interesting to see how some of the philosophies play out:
1. Accumulate hitters, trade for good pitching. They picked up a couple of rental relievers, and Eloy/Quintana. Not sure that's quite the quantity or quality of cost-controlled young pitching that was envisioned in the plan? Maybe if Happ and Schwarber explode this year, there might still be a chance for more.
2. Young hitters develop. Premise of the plan and Maddon's view is that young hitters develop and improve. What they had in 2015, the expectation was that by 2018 the improvement would be huge. But to some degree Russell/Baez/Schwarber weren't much better 2017 than 2015 (or Soler). (Baez numbers were better, as deeg will note). Think 2018 will be a big year to see whether Schwarber, Baez, Russell, Almora, and Happ show improvement. If not, I think it's going to be harder to assume that 4th year guys are just young and will start to figure things out in years 5 and 6.
3. Hangover plateau? Development is often non-liner, and has progression interrupted by periods of plateau or regression. Coming off WS they were all stars, perhaps not much perceived need to get better. If status-quo is 103 wins and WS, who other than Heyward needs to mess with success? But perhaps this year, after hitting badly first half and 2nd season, plus ugly situational hitting stats, perhaps there will be some motivation both organizational and individual to adjust?
Just think we have traded Jorge Solar, Gleyber Torres, Donald DeWees, Matt Szczur, Zach Rosscup, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, Starlin Castro, Adam Warren, Arismendy Alcantara, Paul Blackburn, Daniel Vogelbach, Billy McKinney and some others.
And what do we have from all those trades less than 2 years later? Mike Montgomery and Jose Quintana (and a WS). It just feels like we wasted a lot of assets.
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And what do we have from all those trades less than 2 years later? Mike Montgomery and Jose Quintana (and a WS). It just feels like we wasted a lot of assets.
Oh, yeah. "(and a WS)" also known as the World Series Championship. That seems like it's worth quite a lot to me. But maybe that's just me. ;)
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Yes it is worth a lot and I wouldn't take back that Chapman trade.
My issue is the FO stated desire to trade hitting assets that we used to have for cost controlled pitching which is not what we got for ALL those assets. They don't seem to think enough of relief pitching to go out and spend the $$ on, but they are willing to trade more valuable cost controlled assets for those same RP. Its just infuriated me the most about this FO. They needed to address the RP and could have in FA instead of wasting our farm system.
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I'd like to see a breakdown on the risk/reward ratio for spending money on free agent relief pitchers. I bet it sucks.
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Since 2003, here are the closers for Theo's teams:
2003 - Byung-Hyun Kim (acquired via trade for Shea Hillenbrand, who was superfluous with Bill Mueller just signed as a free agent)
2004 - Keith Foulke (multi-year free agent contract)
2005 - Foulke (Mike Timlin backed him up when he failed)
2006 - Jonathan Papelbon (homegrown)
2007 - Papelbon
2008 - Papelbon
2009 - Papelbon
2010 - Papelbon
2011 - Papelbon
2012 - Carlos Marmol (inherited)
2013 - Kevin Gregg (one-year free agent contract)
2014 - Hector Rondon (Rule 5 selection)
2015 - Rondon
2016 - Rondon / Aroldis Chapman (expensive deadline trade)
2017 - Wade Davis (expensive offseason trade)
It's pretty clear that Theo still remembers his bad experience with Foulke.
We need to find our Papelbon.
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Sign 2 good set-up guys and let 'em compete with Wilson. This isn't brain surgery.
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And if the two setup guys signed are Reed and McGee, all three guys battling for the job have closed in the past--there would be no reason to doubt things would work out.
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Yes it is worth a lot and I wouldn't take back that Chapman trade.
My issue is the FO stated desire to trade hitting assets that we used to have for cost controlled pitching which is not what we got for ALL those assets. They don't seem to think enough of relief pitching to go out and spend the $$ on, but they are willing to trade more valuable cost controlled assets for those same RP. Its just infuriated me the most about this FO. They needed to address the RP and could have in FA instead of wasting our farm system.
What did the other teams get for all those assets? Torres and Eloy while amazing super awesome prospects are just prospects... and if you consider the $$$ value of signing eloy and getting Q out of it, its a slam dunk.
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Right on, method. It's hard to complain about the return on our youngsters, at least as things stand now.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter
A poll of GMs found one predicting Otani would sign with the Cubs..... so long as that one was Theo or Hoyer....
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If either Dillion Maples or Edwards can consistently throw strikes there is the Cubs version of Paplebon.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter
A poll of GMs found one predicting Otani would sign with the Cubs..... so long as that one was Theo or Hoyer....
In looking at the article more closely, perhaps there is reason to think the exec who thought the Cubs would sign him is Theo or Hoyer -- " Seattle has a strong history with Japanese players, and the Cubs could jump into the fray even though they didn't score strongly in this survey."
The only strong reason to think the Cub might "jump into the fray" is if it was Theo or Hoyer who thought the Cubs will sign him.
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Mooney floats the option of Mikolas as a 5th starter option for the Cubs, though whether he has a source of just read that here is anybody’s guess.
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Mooney floats the option of Mikolas as a 5th starter option for the Cubs, though whether he has a source of just read that here is anybody’s guess.
Interesting. Plate is same size and distance in Japan, so if he was good there he may be capable here, too?
Wonder if they might not be intending to bring in a couple of candidates, actually, rather than kind of committing to one? That only works if you aren't enslaved to keeping them. 3-4 guys, let the best man win is fine; but you've got to be willing to deal with the losers. Non-roster, no commitment, nothing lost? Non-roster, send to minors for a while?
Health question, send off on a rehab for a while? Major league contract, but cheap enough that no hesitation to eat it and cut guy? Or maybe guy is good enough that even if he doesn't win April rotation spot, you've got a spot in the bullpen for him?
Maybe they scout Mikolas favorably enough to just commit to him as #5 and that's it. But I guess I'm kind of thinking if they do sign somebody like that, he might be one of a handful of options. Thought I've seen Buchholz mentioned, for example, certainly you'd not sign him and have him as the only guy. But with several candidates, maybe you get lucky and one of them kills it in rotation and another one ends up being really good in relief.
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Interesting. Plate is same size and distance in Japan, so if he was good there he may be capable here, too?
Wonder if they might not be intending to bring in a couple of candidates, actually, rather than kind of committing to one? That only works if you aren't enslaved to keeping them. 3-4 guys, let the best man win is fine; but you've got to be willing to deal with the losers. Non-roster, no commitment, nothing lost? Non-roster, send to minors for a while?
Health question, send off on a rehab for a while? Major league contract, but cheap enough that no hesitation to eat it and cut guy? Or maybe guy is good enough that even if he doesn't win April rotation spot, you've got a spot in the bullpen for him?
Maybe they scout Mikolas favorably enough to just commit to him as #5 and that's it. But I guess I'm kind of thinking if they do sign somebody like that, he might be one of a handful of options. Thought I've seen Buchholz mentioned, for example, certainly you'd not sign him and have him as the only guy. But with several candidates, maybe you get lucky and one of them kills it in rotation and another one ends up being really good in relief.
Isn't the ball a teensie bit smaller? Thought I read that somewhere. No matter; guy looks interesting.
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Mikolas is listed at 6-5, 220 on zfangraphs.
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Yes, the ball is a hair smaller.
CBJ asked about Mikolas before. I think he could potentially be a decent 5th starter at $3-4 million a year - I wouldn't put the ceiling much higher. It's also worth keeping two other names in mind - Wakui Hideaki, SP who won the Sawamura (Japanese Cy Young) in 2009 and is coming off a down year. True FA, 88-92 with a big mix of pitches, probably a lesser version of Maeda. Higher ceiling than Mikolas IMHO, but likely a #4-5. Also Hirano Yoshihisa, a closer who the Cards and Red Sox are supposedly interested in. True FA - 91-94 FB, very good forkball. Both those guys are in the 32-YO range.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/15/miles-mikolas-references-taking-over-who-is-this-dominant-npb-pitcher-the-cubs-might-pursue/
Strong stache game at least in the past.
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I was just going to note that if we sign him, the 70’ pornstar stache has to go. It’s no wonder his nickname is “Lizard King”.
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Until proven otherwise I believe there is a mullet under his cap, the stache must stay.
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"In 2017, Mikolas made 27 starts and posted a 2.25 ERA over 188.0 innings, while striking out 187 and walking just 23."
That's a career year, relative to his previous seasons there. Still those walk-numbers are very likable. 187K/23BB, that's good in any league.
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What time tomorrow do the QO"s expire?
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Jason Parks was hired by the D-Backs to be their Director of Pro Scouting. :(
In happier news.
Patrick MooneyVerified account
@MooneyNBCS
1h1 hour ago
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Biggest takeaway is Cubs are not prepared to do another rental deal on the Chapman/Davis scale right now.
http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/why-zach-britton-no-longer-makes-sense-cubs-team-going-different-direction-bullpen
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What time tomorrow do the QO"s expire?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/all-9-recipients-will-reject-qualifying-offer.html
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Thank you, Jeff.
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You're welcome.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/al-rumors-indians-orioles-machado-red-sox.html
Clubs also approached the Tribe about a couple less heralded members of the organization in outfielder Greg Allen and minor league righty Shane Bieber, Pluto adds.
Bieber seems like a guy the Cubs might have interest in.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Sickels:
20) Shane Bieber, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, fourth round pick in 2016 from University of California Santa Barbara; posted 0.38 ERA in 24 innings in New York-Penn League with stellar 21/2 K/BB; should follow Adam Plutko path with 90 MPH fastball, solid slider and change-up, excellent command and control; the Indians have a good track record at getting the best out of this type of pitcher. ETA 2019.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/20/the-hawk-returns-andre-dawson-is-coming-back-to-the-cubs-organization/
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MLB rumor mill today has the Cardinals having made an offer for Stanton, with Red Sox and Phillies preparing to follow. Rumor is that if Dodgers show interest, Stanton won't waive trade clause for those other three.
big actions expected once either Arrieta or Darvish sign. Sets the stage for all the others. Same on reliever front, as soon as Holland or Davis sign with someone. On hitting front, Santana and JD Martinez or Stanton trade.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/20/the-hawk-returns-andre-dawson-is-coming-back-to-the-cubs-organization/
I'm a huge Dawson fan, but what in his style of play, or anything that he has actually done in the Marlin's organization, indicates that he actually fits in with the Theocracy approach, or has any particular skill in talent evaluation, or pretty much anything else anyone in the front office does? If Dawson were a free agent in his prime right now, there really isn't even any reason to believe the Theocracy would make any effort to sign him.... unless, of course, he did as he did with the Cubs back in '87 when he signed a contract with no salary number filled in and shamed the Cubs into signing him -- he never worked the count, never walked enough to amount to anything (only 32 times in his 49 HR MVP season). His approach at the plate just did not fit the current Cub mold.
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Cubs add De La Cruz,Alzolay,and Bote to 40 man roster.
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Cubs add Alzolay, de la Cruz, and Bote to the 40-man roster.
Hannemann has been outrighted to AAA Iowa.
Roster stands at 36.
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Bote? That's a surprise.
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No Stinnett surprises me a bit.
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Dave, get serious.
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Len and JD will have to find a new "Cubs Insider"
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPKj565VoAAUNyW.jpg:small)
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Good riddance
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reorganization
layoffs
cutbacks
Same difference
As long as they keep Kelly Crull I'll be happy.
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I think Mooney is one of the best Cubs beat writers, I'm sorry to see him go.
One reason NBC Sports is having to cut back is because they encourage the use of ad blockers on their website. If there is an auto play video embedded in one of their articles, it won't run as long as the ad blocker is turned on. They seem to think disabling annoying auto play videos is a punishment.
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Too bad. In recent years Mooney has replaced Trib/Daily Herald/Sun Times from old days.
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Yeah, I don't think Mooney was half-bad as beat writers go.
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Just let this sink in Jesse Rogers is the best currently employed, non-paywalled beat writer covering the Cubs. I really need to get an Athletic subscription.
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To Jesse's credit, he has gotten a lot better than he was when he started. At first, he barely seemed to know the rules of baseball.
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Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
34m34 minutes ago
More
Will Venable Cubs’ new first base/outfield coach; Jim Benedict hired as Special Assistant to Baseball Operations
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Benedict is a good get.
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And Will Venable is a very smart young man...and a class act!
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Benedict is a huge get and they can still get a new Minor league pitching coordinator too.
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...Jim Benedict hired as Special Assistant to Baseball Operations
Benedict is a huge get and they can still get a new Minor league pitching coordinator too.
Hopefully he'll help. "Special assistant" is a pretty vague title. Wonder how a guy distributes between amateur scouting, pro scouting, working with minor-league pitcher development, minor-league pitching coach development/consulting, and working with Hickey and the minor league pitching coordinator.
Cubs philosophy was to use top-10 picks on players, history suggesting that you can sometimes get pitchers later. That draft-and-develop approach with pitching hasn't succeeded thus far. I wonder how much of that is draft scouting versus pitcher development versus just the absence of getting lucky on anybody?
Hopefully they'll get intelligently lucky both in the draft and in their big-league take-a-shot reclamation projects.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/22/the-cubs-landed-something-of-a-pitching-star-in-special-assistant-jim-benedict/
He had the same role with the Marlins, this might help describe what he does a little better.
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Thanks, Blue, helpful.
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I suppose this isn't the right thread (not sure what would be a this point), but I just finished the Verducci book The Cubs Way. Terrific book. Especially enjoyable and interesting is his description of the World Series games 6 and 7, with commentary/recollections from Maddon, Epstein, Hoyer and players, reliving those games. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend you do so. Among so many other things, it provides a fascinating detailed description of the organizational process by which the Cubs prepare for games.
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Thanks, Ron. It’s on my list for Santa. Should be good off-season reading.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Levine says the Cubs have offers on the table for free agent starters and relievers including Alex Cobb.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/28/report-cubs-have-offers-on-the-table-to-free-agent-pitchers-including-alex-cobb/
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I'm sure those are the "get the **** out of town" offers.
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Passan connected the Cubs and Indians on possible Salazar interest. I could see that making a certain amount of sense for both sides.
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Any idea of the cost? Salazar has 3 years of control I think and the last 2 years have been injury filled. I'd hate to trade Happ for him.
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Really?
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I'd trade Happ for Salazar and I like Happ.
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Salazar is good...but if Cleveland is willing to give him up at a decent price, I'm not sure that's a good sign. He has dealt with a lot of injuries the last couple of years.
He's also a shaky command guy, which is something the Cubs seem to be trying to get away from.
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Sign Cobb, and you don't have to trade Happ.
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Happ for Salazar was what was proposed by a writer. The writer admitted that the Indians would likely have to add more.
A while back, I mentioned this guy as a possible Cubs target:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha
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Really?
He's thrown 137 and 103 IP the last 2 years. He's been demoted to the minors for being ineffective and has a bad elbow with only 3 years of control. He's kinda risky.
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Happ for Salazar was what was proposed by a writer. The writer admitted that the Indians would likely have to add more.
A while back, I mentioned this guy as a possible Cubs target:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha
Notes
Bieber had a terrific career at UC Santa Barbara (2.24 ERA as a sophomore, 2.74 ERA as a junior) largely because he has superlative fastball control. He fell to the 2016 draft’s 4th round because Bieber’s fastball sat mostly 88-92 as a junior and his secondaries were fringe to average. He’s throwing a bit harder, sitting 90-94 this season while issuing just one free pass in six starts so far this season. His slider remains fringey and we are talking about a college draftee performing in A-ball, but Bieber was young for a college draftee (he only turned 21 a week before the draft) and the added velocity is evidence that some of the bat-missing is real.
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I would drive Happ to the airport myself if that were the deal.
Yes, there are obvious injury concerns with Salazar. There's also a 30%-plus K rate. I wouldn't take the Indians (theoretical) willingness to move him as a red flag so much as an acknowledgment of the fact that they need some younger bats.
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I'll buy ya the gas. Salazar may have some concerns, but what can you realiastically expect to get for happ pitching wise? Hes not an elite type guy.
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Happ for Salazar was what was proposed by a writer. The writer admitted that the Indians would likely have to add more.
A while back, I mentioned this guy as a possible Cubs target:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha
He threw a total of 173 innings this year at age 22. I would look for arm trouble in the very near future.
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Dario Alvarez is showing up on the Cubs roster 40 man roster on MLB.com. He is a LHRP recently outrighted off the Rangers 40 man and elected free agency. Nasty slider. He was traded to the Rangers from the Braves in 2016.
Edit: Mets minor league (Alvarez’s first team) is confirming. So the Cubs signed a free agent!!!
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He pitched 16 innings last year, and walked 14. How can we tell him apart from the rest of the pen?
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So he's wild and he's allowed 10HR in 48 innings? That's Cub!
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It was only 4 HR (3 in AAA, 1 in MLB).
With the Braves in 2016 he K'd 28 in 15 IP and the walks weren't a huge issue in AAA or 2016.
I'd would have liked him on a minor league deal, but for the league minimum he's worth a shot in spring training.
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10HR/48innings is composite over his 4-year big-league career.
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Aww. 3 came in his 5 innings with the Mets. 61 K/22 BB in those 48 innings. He's interesting, even though he's unlikely to due much.
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Irony aside, I agree that he is certainly worth a shot for what he cost. There were a few relievers that did quite will last year, with prior records not much better.
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After their subpar 2017 seasons, the Cubs may opt not to offer arbitration-eligible Hector Rondon and Justin Grimm contracts before Friday night’s deadline because the salary increases they still could receive under the raise-friendly arbitration system may make their arbitration cost prohibitive. Though Rondon and Grimm were effective in previous seasons and provide plenty of experience, the Cubs may continue to seek bullpen upgrades through trades and free agency.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-bullpen-changes-20171130-story.html (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-bullpen-changes-20171130-story.html)
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I have no problem with letting Justin Grimm go away. He's had enough chances.
But I'm inclined to try Hector Rondon for one more season.
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I have no problem with letting Justin Grimm go away. He's had enough chances.
But I'm inclined to try Hector Rondon for one more season.
I agree with both of these, but Joe may not.
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Rondon is tricky because of the injury issues he's had the last couple of years. I remember reading that he had to be convinced not to retire at some point in the season before the Cubs picked him up in the Rule 5 because he was tired of dealing with injuries. Of course you bring him back if he's healthy...but given his injury history, I think the Cubs have good reasons to doubt that.
Ideally, they can find a trade for him before tomorrow so they won't have to worry about it.
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I think Rondon may have mental injuries also. When Chapman came over, he expressed that given an opportunity to get a closer like Chapman, you have to take it. He was a real team player about it, but I've wondered how much it burned his confidence, his self-image, his morale. I still like him, but it may be too late to be fixed. Joe would pull Rondon in situations he would let Davis or Chapman work out of.
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I saw earlier that the Astros are trying to trade Mike Fiers before the non-tender deadline tomorrow. Would a swap of non-tender candidates (Fiers for either Rondon or Grimm) be worthwhile for the Cubs? He'd be a decent fallback for 5th starter if other options don't work out, and could become a swing man (or could just be dumped before the season starts) if the Cubs end up with better options. He was bad last year, but averaged about 2 fWAR a year from 2012-16.
I doubt he'd make sense for the Cubs if he cost anything valuable. But if they could get him for a guy they might drop tomorrow anyway, I could see the appeal.
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Source: @MLB ownership conference call to ratify Japanese posting agreement scheduled for 1 pm ET today. Approval is considered a formality at this point; Shohei Ohtani to be formally posted soon afterward. @MLBNetwork
Once he's posted, he has three weeks to sign. So he'll sign before Christmas.
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There is a surprising amount of speculation that the Cubs are serious suitors for Ohtani. I don't know if this is because of the assumption that Epstein and the Cubs are capable of just about anything or what. I just know that I find it very hard to believe (even though I would sure like to), even though the reports are that money isn't a factor at all and that some of the things he's asking clubs to describe are ones for which the Cubs can make a strong case.
One can dream, I suppose.
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Why would that be surprising?
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That seems such an implausible long shot.
1. Cubs have no money advantage; and some disadvantage.
2. The guy wants to be an amazingly-unique 2-way guy, he loves to hit; Cubs have no DH, and don't have any starts at 1B to give away either.
3. Cubs don't have the international reputation of the Yankees.
4. Chicago isn't a shorter flight back home, nor is it an unusually established Japanese hot-spot, either community-wise or as a team.
Just hard to imagine why Ohtani would want to choose the Cubs ahead of one of the AL/DH teams that project to be annual contenders.
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I do wonder whether also going after Darvish as well, or perhaps another Japanese pitcher, and having two countrymen together to share some of the life together, and maybe a translator and cultural-adjustment assistant, might make some sense?
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There is a surprising amount of speculation that the Cubs are serious suitors for Ohtani. I don't know if this is because of the assumption that Epstein and the Cubs are capable of just about anything or what. I just know that I find it very hard to believe (even though I would sure like to), even though the reports are that money isn't a factor at all and that some of the things he's asking clubs to describe are ones for which the Cubs can make a strong case.
One can dream, I suppose.
I don't know what the source of the information was, but I read in a chat yesterday that the Cubs have said they would play him as an OF as well as a pitcher. Not sure if that's as a bullpen pitcher or as an SP, but if the Cubs are willing to let him play wherever he wants, whenever he wants, they should be a strong contender. Extraordinary recent success, extraordinary future potential, major market, excellent management, etc. We may not be able to offer the cultural comforts of a place like Seattle, and we may not have the mythos of the Yankees, but the Cubs can position very well for the majority of the questions asked by Otani's "RFP," for lack of a better term.
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I suspect the two way player thing will end pretty quickly. So, if he wants to get a decent number of at bats, the NL is the spot since he'll have to hit every 5th day and there is more pinch hitting in the NL. Finally, playing for Maddon and being part of his unconventional and creative use of his roster may get him some additional at bats and non-pitching playing time. For the other stuff, the Cubs stack up well - Chicago is a big, global city; the team is really good now and set up to be good for awhile; and they have an absolute need for him where he'll be the #1 guy immediately.
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Japanese teams play only a 144 game season. I wonder of Ohtani really knows what he is asking for.
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That seems such an implausible long shot.
1. Cubs have no money advantage; and some disadvantage.
Otani is leaving TENS - if not HUNDREDS - of MILLIONS of dollars on the table. Money is not a motivator here, and it's not going to make a difference. When you waive your ability to earn nine figures, the difference between high six and low seven figures is meaningless.
2. The guy wants to be an amazingly-unique 2-way guy, he loves to hit; Cubs have no DH, and don't have any starts at 1B to give away either.
Otani has 60-70 grade speed and a cannon arm. He's likely an excellent defensive OF, and the Cubs are reportedly saying they would let him play OF. Under normal circumstances, that would simply be too great a risk for a pitcher of Otani's ability, but if your chances of signing him disappear without the OF option, it's literally no risk at all, especially given that he's basically going to play for free wherever he signs.
3. Cubs don't have the international reputation of the Yankees.
Agreed. This is a challenge for the Cubs and one of the reasons why - though they may be serious contenders - they cannot be considered front runners.
4. Chicago isn't a shorter flight back home, nor is it an unusually established Japanese hot-spot, either community-wise or as a team.
Don't think the shorter-flight-back-home will matter much, but the Japanese cultural issue is also a weakness for the Cubs.
Just hard to imagine why Ohtani would want to choose the Cubs ahead of one of the AL/DH teams that project to be annual contenders.
If Otani really wants to challenge himself and prove his ability in every aspect of baseball, AL/DH teams are not necessarily at an advantage.
My opinion on the matter literally means nothing and is worthless, but I'll give it anyway: Otani, in waiving hundreds of millions of dollars, is coming here for one thing.
Glory.
The chance to prove himself the greatest and most complete baseball player of all time by excelling in every facet of the game; the incarnation of the ideal Platonic form of baseball greatness; the first ever two-way star; an icon and an archetype for a select few future athletes who might also attempt two-way greatness. Basically, Baseball Jesus.
He could have waited a few years, and barring injury, still have played on the greatest stage while preserving the ability to earn absurd amounts of money. But if he waits a few years, he loses some of his prime. He loses years he could have plied against the greatest numbers in record books.
Coming now says, "I want to be Baseball Jesus," and I don't know that Baseball Jesus is a DH.
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Once Otani signs, the truly fascinating question is how and when his new club will propose a contract extension, and how MLB will react.
There is absolute precedent for offering players with little-to-no major league experience significant major league contracts. Not if, but WHEN this happens, what will the Commissioner's Office do?
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NOtani.
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It also has been rumored he might want to go to a team that hasn't had a significant Japanese player in the past, so he could be orginal star.
I have no clue what the guy wants, but I have every confidence that Theo will put the Cubs in the best position possible to win.
Alvarez was announced and he apparently has an option remaining. That makes him more interesting.
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NOtani.
That crap only works in Tennessee.
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Latest Wrigley Field renovations underway
New club box and field box seats, improved concourse on agenda
While the Cubs' front office is focused on finding players for the 2018 season, the next phase of the renovation at Wrigley Field is underway, and this offseason's work will result in new club box and field box seats, an improved concourse, more netting to protect fans and wider dugouts. The dugouts will move closer to the first and third base bags and will be wider.
The dugouts will not only move closer to the first- and third-base bags, respectively, but they will be wider.
[/size](http://m.cubs.mlb.com/assets/images/2/7/6/262554276/cuts/640x360/cut.jpg)
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It also has been rumored he might want to go to a team that hasn't had a significant Japanese player in the past, so he could be orginal star.
I have no clue what the guy wants, but I have every confidence that Theo will put the Cubs in the best position possible to win.
Alvarez was announced and he apparently has an option remaining. That makes him more interesting.
I hope Fukudome doesn't hurt us here. :)
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Happy 25th birthday to El Mago
The video lasts 5:10
https://www.kissyoutube.com/watch?v=--zGaton8Mo (https://www.kissyoutube.com/watch?v=--zGaton8Mo)
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I hope Fukudome doesn't hurt us here. :)
:):):)
Fukudome, Kawasaki, Koji, what chance to we have? :)
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Once Otani signs, the truly fascinating question is how and when his new club will propose a contract extension, and how MLB will react.
There is absolute precedent for offering players with little-to-no major league experience significant major league contracts. Not if, but WHEN this happens, what will the Commissioner's Office do?
Yeah, great point. I've wondered about that too. How do you keep the Dodgers or Yankees from saying we'll give you $200/7 deal once your first year or first month is done?
No idea what commissioner can do to prevent either the reality, or the promise thereof?
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Yeah, great point. I've wondered about that too. How do you keep the Dodgers or Yankees from saying we'll give you $200/7 deal once your first year or first month is done?
No idea what commissioner can do to prevent either the reality, or the promise thereof?
They'd have to justify the extension based on performance. Maybe he'll do enough to justify it but if it's just a way to work around the rules, the commissioner will not allow it and the team will probably have some punishment issues.
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Craig, I think you underestimate the popularity of the Cubs in Japan.
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I don't know what the source of the information was, but I read in a chat yesterday that the Cubs have said they would play him as an OF as well as a pitcher. Not sure if that's as a bullpen pitcher or as an SP, but if the Cubs are willing to let him play wherever he wants, whenever he wants, they should be a strong contender. Extraordinary recent success, extraordinary future potential, major market, excellent management, etc. We may not be able to offer the cultural comforts of a place like Seattle, and we may not have the mythos of the Yankees, but the Cubs can position very well for the majority of the questions asked by Otani's "RFP," for lack of a better term.
From the Cubs view, I think that could actually make a ton of sense. Cubs may not be very deep or strong in the outfield. Heyward can't hit, and we don't really know how much Schwarber can hit (and we know he fields kinda badly); so adding another weapon option to the OF conglomerate could be really beneficial to the Cubs. It's not like the Cubs wouldn't have plenty of AB's to share, if Ohtani deserved them, and within whatever constraints pitching allowed.
Still, the AL/DH makes so much more sense. Signing with an AL team doesn't mean he can't play OF, so your "Baseball Jesus" emphasis doesn't preclude signing AL and playing OF , within the constraints that pitching allows. But there might be many days where the constraints of pitching does NOT allow outfielding, but DOES allow hitting. On days when he's not pitching and his pitching-arm needs rest, he can still DH.
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I don't think the two-way player thing will end - Otani is a terrific hitter. But I think it's going to be as a DH on an American League club.
I find reports the Cubs are making a serious play not at all surprising. They'd be fools not to, first of all, and they do have some things that would be attractive to Otani. But in the end, it just seems very unlikely to me he'd sign with an NL club when the DH gives him his best chance at 3-400 ABs.
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Craig, I think you underestimate the popularity of the Cubs in Japan.
In the time I lived there I never noticed any Cubs presence outside of Kagurazaka, where they were very popular (with two people).
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I suspect the two way player thing will end pretty quickly. So, if he wants to get a decent number of at bats, the NL is the spot since he'll have to hit every 5th day and there is more pinch hitting in the NL. Finally, playing for Maddon and being part of his unconventional and creative use of his roster may get him some additional at bats and non-pitching playing time. For the other stuff, the Cubs stack up well - Chicago is a big, global city; the team is really good now and set up to be good for awhile; and they have an absolute need for him where he'll be the #1 guy immediately.
Time will tell how long the two-way thing will last. Maybe it won't. But that doesn't impact the decision now. Tico has articulated the desire for glory. The reality may prove very different, and the 2-way may not end up lasting. But the kid isn't making his decision three years from now after which perhaps he realizes the 2-way thing isn't realistic, he's making the decision this month. The hunt for glory would seem to want at least the opportunity to be an amazing 2-way guy, and to have at least the opportunity to bat, whether as an outfielder or as a DH, on any day that his arm permits.
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People are very closed-minded about this two-way thing. “No one’s done it in a long time, so it can’t be done.” Otani is going to leave a lot of small-minded doubters in his wake.
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Yeah, great point. I've wondered about that too. How do you keep the Dodgers or Yankees from saying we'll give you $200/7 deal once your first year or first month is done?
No idea what commissioner can do to prevent either the reality, or the promise thereof?
Trout signed a $144.5 million/6 year contract after 3 years in the bigs and 28.7 fWAR in those 3 years. Anything bigger and sooner than that will draw a lot of intrest from MLB.
I don't think the two-way player thing will end - Otani is a terrific hitter. But I think it's going to be as a DH on an American League club.
I find reports the Cubs are making a serious play not at all surprising. They'd be fools not to, first of all, and they do have some things that would be attractive to Otani. But in the end, it just seems very unlikely to me he'd sign with an NL club when the DH gives him his best chance at 3-400 ABs.
I think his best chance to keep hitting is going to be in the NL. The guy has strike out issues in the Japan league and that isn't MLB pitching. Between the amount of time it will take to improve his swing and the level of hitting it will require to be a DH I don't think it will last long. The guy seems to want detail plans and evaluations of himself as a player, so I think Theo could make a strong case on scouting/development that the NL is better for him. Maybe he won't agree, but I think there is a decent chance he would listen.
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They'd have to justify the extension based on performance.
His performance in Japan justifies it, as it has for so many free agents who came over before the restrictions in international spending. Moreover, if you can extend multimillion-dollar, multi-year offers to minor leaguers, who have no history of major league performance, why can't you do that with Otani the instant he signs?
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Because owners want to keep more of the pie for themselves and the union wants the money to go to established players.
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Those are two wildly different scouting evals: deeg that he's going to be a good hitter, Blue that he's so bad a hitter that he won't get any AB's at first in the AL, and the only way to get any initial AB's will be the several AB's an NL pitchers gets.
My guess remains that GMs from blue's perspective, who don't think he can hit right now, will not be able to make a very compelling pitch. And that a team with a GM who does believe he can hit, or at least says he does whether it's sincere or not, will end up being the team that gets him.
Seems to me that he'd be nuts to go to a team that won't at least sell the opportunity. As with any competitor, what he does with the opportunity will dictate from there.
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I wasn't super clear.
Ohtani has a long swing because he sells out for power. He will need to shorten it do deal with MLB velocity. He struck out 161 in 613 PA in the last 2 years in the JPPL. He has work to due. The Yanks averaged a .764 OPS for their DH's last year. That is going to be tough for him to match. Last year their were 15 21-23 in the majors that topped that with 200 PA.
I think Ohtani can be a good hitter, but he has work to do. Will contending teams let him DH if he isn't hitting well? My guess is now. I'd tell him you have work to do and we have the depth to let you hit and work on it.
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Yeah, that's fair. I think any competitor can handle that: you've got work to do, we'll provide help and opportunity, and as you earn AB's you'll get them. That's not a turnoff.
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In the time I lived there I never noticed any Cubs presence outside of Kagurazaka, where they were very popular (with two people).
Interesting. I was told differently. Where's Tuffy when you need him?
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Interesting. I was told differently. Where's Tuffy when you need him?
He was six blocks away from me. We were the two people...
I don't think Otani is going to have any difficulty OPSing better than .764 in the majors - that would be a larger than normal dropoff from NPB to MLB. He'll take his walks and certainly hit for power. It's also worth noting that he was still developing, even in Japan - he's three or four years short of his likely peak as a hitter.
I'd expect .250-320-490 or so as a rookie, with significant improvement after that.
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"We were the two people..."
LOL
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Just randomly throwing it out there, but does anyone think Jay Bruce would be a good fit for the Cubs? He's a guy I always thought was born for a place like Wrigley Field, and although I guess he's probably too much of the same thing we have throughout the lineup, he might help when Bryant or Rizzo is going through a slump.
That might free things up to trade another outfielder for help too. His defensive metrics haven't generally been bad in the outfield, so he wouldn't be a drawback there.
He doesn't seem to get talked about very much and there's not really a very natural fit for him in the lineup, but he also seems like a guy who could be a somewhat decent value in this market who would take to Wrigley really well.
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Jesse Rogers just tweeted that Rondon will be non-tendered.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-release-matt-carasiti-to-sign-with-japans-yakult-swallows.html
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Bruce seems like a more expensive, older, less upside version of Schwarber. Bruce’s UZR/150 has been good for awhile and he’s super streaky.
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I don't think a (non-bench) position player makes sense this offseason unless it's a strong OBP guy who probably plays CF, so I'm not high on Bruce. The offense was much less consistent this year than it was in 2016, so I think replacing one of the consistent bats they lost after 2016 (Fowler or good Zobrist) makes sense if they can find one. Bruce just seems like more of the same inconsistency they had in 2017.
Grimm will be tendered a contract according to Chris Cotillo on Twitter. Interesting the way the non-tender deadline played out--if they kept only one, I would have been confident to put money on Rondon.
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I don't think Otani is going to have any difficulty OPSing better than .764 in the majors - that would be a larger than normal dropoff from NPB to MLB. He'll take his walks and certainly hit for power. It's also worth noting that he was still developing, even in Japan - he's three or four years short of his likely peak as a hitter.
I'd expect .250-320-490 or so as a rookie, with significant improvement after that.
Hideki Matsui went from a 1.153 OPS in Japan to a .788 OPS with the Yankees in his first year. That was as a 29 year old and without having to pitch every 5th day or Ohtani’s K%. I think Ohtani is super intriguing as an offensive power. He is a plus runner with power. He has a lot of work to do to hit major league pitching and thinking he is going to come over and it is going to be easy is hard to buy.
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His performance in Japan justifies it, as it has for so many free agents who came over before the restrictions in international spending. Moreover, if you can extend multimillion-dollar, multi-year offers to minor leaguers, who have no history of major league performance, why can't you do that with Otani the instant he signs?
The MLB office could and should determine that the original signing was a sham to get around the rules if he were to be released and re-signed for a much larger amount with little or no additional information available between the two signings.
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Taylor Davis nontendered as well. 40 man at 34.
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His performance in Japan justifies it, as it has for so many free agents who came over before the restrictions in international spending. Moreover, if you can extend multimillion-dollar, multi-year offers to minor leaguers, who have no history of major league performance, why can't you do that with Otani the instant he signs?
What a load of crap. 29 owners would revolt if this occurred if the deal didn't land in place with prior deals...
Specifically, the agreed upon best baseball player in MLB right now will have earned 77.842 million by the end of his 6th year in baseball. If a team signs him for a 300K bonus and then waits 1 month to hand out a 7 year 200 million dollar extension, that would definitely draw the ire of 29 other teams.
Currently the best case scenario was either Moncada or Jose Abreu, however both were under different signing rules,the moment the cubs/dodgers/yankees can offer up a 300K contract to sign him followed up by a massive deal shortly there after without amazing performance 29 other teams will be screaming murder...
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Actually, it wont be 29 other teams. It will just be the JR/Selig bloc that has driven the international signing/Draft pool decisions for the last 15 years.
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Ohtani would be worth significantly more under the old IFA rules or if he was a free agent. The players union is also happy to throw IFA under the bus too.
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A potential extension can easily “land in place with prior deals” and still be an enormous sum more than what Otani will get.
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When we see the heavy punishments handed down to the Cardinals for their hacking fiasco with the Astros and the Braves' situation resulting in their GM banished for life, playing games with signing bonuses and premature extensions would not be smart.
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The Cubs are one of seven finalists for Ohtani.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/937672406935785472
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As Ron and deeg and blue and others have noted, still seems remotely long shot that Cubs would get him. If there were 7 West Coast teams, don't imagine the Cubs would still be on the list!
Still, I think it's kinda cool that the Cubs are one of the two "other" teams. Seems like for most of our memory as Cub fans, how often would the Cubs situation or management be able to stack even that favorably? Speaks well for the capability/persuasiveness of management and the evident competitiveness of the Cubs.
Any given the uncertainties of what Otani is looking for, who knows. Cubs have set a major priority on "character", and Otani's choices suggest that he may have a high value for values other than $$ and glamor. (For Jeff's sake, I have to mention values other than wine, women, and song! :)
Cubs have also seemed to really profess, and demonstrate, a priority on caring and protecting the individual guys and their families, on treating people well. Chicago may not exactly qualify as "small market" (and who knows whether that's really much of a priority for Otani anyway). But it may be that "small market" is less about actual population than it is code for a situation where a man is respected and appreciated for his own individual personality, rather than as a commodity. Cubs might perhaps come across very favorably as a place where a guy can be himself, and that might be very appealing.
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Always appreciated, Craig!
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I would imagine, Theo being Theo, our presentation was the best of the lot. Plus, for a unique player like Otani a manager like Maddon is a real asset (and I'm pretty certain he was involved in the pitch). If we were on the West Coast, I think we'd be the favorites. As is, the only teams I'd rank as longer longshots would be Texas and San Diego.
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I don't get the West Coast thing. Why would that be so important?
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I don't get the West Coast thing. Why would that be so important?
I can think of two obvious reasons...
1. The largest Japanese-American populations in the U.S. are on the West Coast. Especially SF, Seattle and L.A. metro.
2. Shortest direct flights to Japan are from the West Coast. Not so important for the player in-season, but for people the players wants to have visit him during the season.
Also, weather could be a factor, lansdcape - who knows?
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I can understand wanting to live where one feels comfortable as a Japanese man, but I would think that would be possible in a number of major cities across the country. As far as reducing travel time, a few additional hours added to an 11 hour trip doesn't seem like a big factor.
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10 hrs to 14 hrs... it's a 40% increase in time in the air. It's also additional time zones to have to work through. Not saying this is what tips the scales for Otani, but I think it's a legit (if secondary or tertiary) concern.
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One would think that being on the right team from the point of view of winning and practicing your craft optimally would be paramount.
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Heyman wrote an article that the small market west coast thing was "a sense" from the Yankees brass.
I really think where he lives is a less important to him. He sounds like he is a baseball rat that plays video games in his off time, he can do that anywhere. I really think it comes down to those 8 questions he asked.
A lot of conventional wisdom as been wrong on what Ohtani wants. First it was AL DH teams, but he choose 4 NL teams to 3 AL and 2 of the AL have full time DH's already. Then it was the Yankees as the prohibitive favorites, and they were the first team announced as out.
I have no clue what he wants or where he is going to end up. Any of the 7 teams wouldn't shock me and as long as it isn't the Dodgers, I'm good with it.
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..First it was AL DH teams, but he choose 4 NL teams to 3 AL and 2 of the AL have full time DH's already. ....I have no clue what he wants or where he is going to end up. ...
Great point. Yeah, I was a DH-thinker; but 4/7 NL teams suggests that isn't a driving factor.
(tico, and reb and others, were right in arguing otherwise!)
Like you say, who knows!
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Rosenthal says that the Cubs are looking at Morrow and Minor as potential closers:
https://theathletic.com/174057/2017/12/03/rosenthal-in-a-game-of-leverage-giancarlo-stanton-holds-almost-all-of-it-pirates-sinking-decisions-for-phils/
I'm fine with signing one of them. But if those are the Cubs' only two big bullpen additions, I'm not going to be a big fan. They need at least one of the relievers they sign to have a history of staying healthy. Both Morrow and Minor have spent most of the last few years hurt.
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If we're still on the positive list, I assume that our previous Japanese players reported positive experiences to him. That's an assumption.
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Great point. Yeah, I was a DH-thinker; but 4/7 NL teams suggests that isn't a driving factor.
(tico, and reb and others, were right in arguing otherwise!)
Like you say, who knows!
I don't think anyone was right about anything yet, because if he picks an AL team (as I still think he will) the DH will likely have been a tremendously important reason why.
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I'd like adding Morrow.
1. Guy seemed to be a tough competitor, pitching non-stop in the World Series.
(The flip is that maybe his arm will be shot from that and he won't be nearly as good...)
2. Seemed to have a pretty rubber-arm.
3. I liked the uncomplicated nature. Sure, guys are going to hit fastballs sometimes. But I kind of like the idea of a guy whose fastball is so good that he can throw a bunch of them, and doesn't need to rely on trickery all the time. Doesn't have to nibble to a 3-2 count on every batter, and depend on hitters outing themselves on chase pitches.
Personal interest is that I've been Type 1 diabetic since kindergarten, and daughter Nitro Nicole (named after Nitro Nic Jackson?) has been since 8th grade. So it would be fun for us at the human-interest level to have a successful diabetic helping the Cubs. Plus I'm pretty expectant that the Cubs would be very practical in enabling him to handle his T1D without compromising his baseball effectiveness.
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10 hrs to 14 hrs... it's a 40% increase in time in the air. It's also additional time zones to have to work through. Not saying this is what tips the scales for Otani, but I think it's a legit (if secondary or tertiary) concern.
The direct flight from Chicago to Tokyo is only one hour longer than the flight from LA and two hours longer than from SF. If this guy makes this decision based on a couple hours in a plane for some people who might come over a couple times a year, he's insane.
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It's probably not his main concern, but I'm sure it's one of many.
The cultural aspect is probably more important. There isn't an Asian population in Chicago to rival SF or LA, much less Japanese. And I'm sure the disgustingly ignorant stuff that happened when Kosuke was here doesn't help.
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What happened to Kosuke other than him sucking?
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Racist t-shirts, racist signs, that sort of good stuff.
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The direct flight from Chicago to Tokyo is only one hour longer than the flight from LA and two hours longer than from SF. If this guy makes this decision based on a couple hours in a plane for some people who might come over a couple times a year, he's insane.
Insane? Or simply prioritizing things in a different way than you do?
Which likely would include coming to the US to play MLB for tens of millions less than he could get by handling things a bit differently.
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Racist t-shirts, racist signs, that sort of good stuff.
You might include good stuff like Dusty's comment. Fukudome had an OPS+ his first year of 89 (though in the first half of the season he did well enough to make the All Star team), which certainly does qualify as quite weak for a starting OFer, but his next two and a half seasons with the Cubs he had the following OPS+ numbers: 104, 114, and 105. While those are exactly HOF offensive production numbers for a RFer/CFer, they also do not come close to qualifying as "sucking."
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For fun's sake here, the Cubs can show Ohtani a video of manager Joe Maddon yanking him from the mound in Game 7 of the World Series in the fourth inning but leaving him in the game to play left field and having Ohtani hit a game-winning home run.
Using that scenario in the AL city, the Cubs would be going without the DH and trading the left fielder’s bat for the pitcher’s spot the rest of the way.
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According to Rosenthal, the Cubs, Mariners, and Rangers met with Ohtani today.
According to Morosi, the Cubs have talked to Brandon Kintzler. He's okay, but he'd be no better than 6th on my list of relievers (behind Morrow, Reed, Shaw, McGee, and Nicasio).
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This is the problem with the whole "we gotta sign strike throwers!" obsession. Yes, guys who don't walk guys in the bullpen is something we need more of. But Kintzler just isn't that good, period. The #1 priority should be to sign the best possible pitchers, not just the guys with the best control.
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Well, Reed, McGee, Morrow, and Shaw have all historically been pretty good strike throwers, so it's not that hard to find better pitchers who throw strikes this offseason.
I wouldn't hate Kintzler if he was the 2nd or 3rd best reliever they sign. I'd be very disappointed if he was the best they got.
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Just to throw this out there, Edwards had a 10.1% walk rate last year. Marrow has a 10.2% walk rate. Marrow was much better last year.
Padres only team left to meet with Ohtani.
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Oops, looked at the wrong line on Morrow's Fangraphs page, he's not a strike thrower historically. He does have upside, though, which Kintzler doesn't have.
I'd like McGee and either Reed or Shaw. All three have a good balance of strike throwing ability and skill/performance. Then find an undervalued Duensing-like guy to fill out the pen.
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According to Rosenthal, the Cubs, Mariners, and Rangers met with Ohtani today.
Rosenthal added in another tweet that Ohtani met with the Angels yesterday. It had already been reported that he met with the Dodgers and Giants yesterday, so the Padres may be the only team left.
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So we'll know soon right?
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So we'll know soon right?
Well, within 17 days for sure.
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Some speculation that he might do city visits still.
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I wouldn't be shocked if they cut it down to a final three tomorrow.
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The Padres getting their own day is a worrying sign.
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I'm hoping the next cutdown activity is more interesting. Maybe team karaoke. Or team strip poker. I think the cubs would have good shots at coming out ahead in both being a youngish sort.
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I just can't imagine he'd go to the Padres. The Cubs and Dodgers are two of the best teams in baseball. You can see the path to the playoffs for the Giants, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners.
But the Padres...I really don't see how they're going to win anything any time soon. If Ohtani signs with them, who's their second best player? Wil Myers? They only have two players under contract--Clayton Richard and Jose Pirela--who had an fWAR of at least 2.0 this year (2.3 and 2.1, respectively). They're terrible. I guess there's some appeal to being the big fish in a small pond...but even if he has five straight Cy Young level seasons, he's not going to get much attention playing for a 70ish win team.
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If he has no regard for $$$ and only wants legacy. Making the Padres forever known as Othani's team is worth it isnt it? where else can he do that on the west coast?
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Aren't the Padres already forever known as Gwynn's team? He'd have to do a lot to replace Tony Gwynn as the all time greatest Padre.
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I thought the same Br.
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Easier then taking over Ruth's team or Bonds... Or Ichiros...
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I guess...but if he wants to be "best player ever" for a certain team, why not leave Todd Helton's team or Evan Longoria's team in the running?
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Maybe he just wants an awesome place to live.
Not that San Diego is.
You all should definitely keep living where you are.
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Heh
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It's a big jump (and a rather silly one IMO) to say Otani wants to be the "best player ever" wherever he goes. But he may want to be the face of the current franchise, and he'd certainly be that in San Diego. There's be less pressure to win right away, he'd be on the West Coast but not in a colossal megalopolis like LA. And San Diego never seems more like an awesome place than it does before you actually live there. I can see the draw.
Me, personally? Hard to imagine a player like Otani signing in San Diego if he cares about winning. But he seems to be serious about them, and he has ties to the organization. I think they're a very real threat.
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The Padres will always be Steve Garvey's team to me. I still hate on him.
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Gwynn was only born and raised in So Cal, attended San Diego State and spent all 20 seasons of his HOF career as a Padre (15x all-star, 8x batting champion, 7x silver slugger, 5x Gold Glove winner). Story checks out
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None of that has anything to do with Otani or his decision, of course.
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Schwarber looking more trim in a Cubs Snapchat video. Bleacher nation caught a screen grab.
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Schwarber looking more trim in a Cubs Snapchat video. Bleacher nation caught a screen grab.
Is this it?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQX2jfiW0AIkFgr.jpg:small)
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Gwynn was only born and raised in So Cal, attended San Diego State and spent all 20 seasons of his HOF career as a Padre (15x all-star, 8x batting champion, 7x silver slugger, 5x Gold Glove winner). Story checks out
Not a bad player for Steve Garvey's crappy team.
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Is this it?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQX2jfiW0AIkFgr.jpg:small)
Yes
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I was just a kid. Still angry...
https://youtu.be/PMIJ3QRMQIw (https://youtu.be/PMIJ3QRMQIw)
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And the announcers say, "look at the effort by Cotto." Was it even close? I can't even see the ball come down with this crappy 1984 definition video.
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Sources: Shohei Ohtani is done interviewing the seven finalists to sign him. His last meeting was actually Tuesday night with the San Diego Padres. Next, presumably, will be his decision. Timetable is not clear yet, but it could well be soon.
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Passan tweeted that the Padres had actually met with Ohtani last night. His speculation was that the next step could be a decision, and it could be soon.
I had assumed the next step was probably narrowing it down to the top 2-3 teams and then doing city visits, but maybe not. Maybe Passan is right and it'll be done soon.
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TOOOOOOOOOO SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW
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Weird. I think he'd be crazy to rush a decision that's going to control the next 6 years without even visiting the city, or the stadium and facilities where you'll be spending so much of your life. Likewise kind of a bummer for the Cubs, since they invested a bunch in their fancy clubhouse, you'd think they'd like to use that as a show-off thing.
Also think going through the whole "face-to-face" interview bit, if you're doing 3-a-day on those, how much time or concentration can you really have for a decision that's going to say shape your life and habits and relationships for so long.
But, maybe I'm way off, and sitting in an interview/visit with guys speaking a language you don't understand really isn't much fun and is just a worthless drag/exhaustion, who knows.
Theo's ability to articulate thoughtful and nuanced ideas is part of what makes him so successful. I wonder if those qualities are kind of lost if you're talking to a guy who doesn't know English that well? If it's all going through a translater anyway, does the translated version differentiate between a source speaker like Theo versus somebody like Hendry or Fleita?
I also wonder to what degree Maddon is/was involved, if the whole "face-to-face" meeting was limited to 2-3 hours? And if he's an asset or not? My understanding is that Asian baseball culture is pretty serious and practice-heavy, with managers who can be relatively drill-sergeant authoritarian? Part of Maddon's thing is being fun and cool, laid-back, don't have rules or manager-meetings, dress casual, don't practice too much, wear funny pajamas and stuff. Wonder if that would appeal to Otani, or seem too loose?
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Weird. I think he'd be crazy to rush a decision that's going to control the next 6 years without even visiting the city, or the stadium and facilities where you'll be spending so much of your life. Likewise kind of a bummer for the Cubs, since they invested a bunch in their fancy clubhouse, you'd think they'd like to use that as a show-off thing.
Carrie Muskat reported that Ohtani is at least familiar with the impressive Cubs' spring training facility.
"Ohtani got an up-close look at the Cubs' Spring Training facility in Mesa, Ariz., last year while doing rehab work in February, according to the Kyodo News. The Cubs' state-of-the-art complex opened in 2014 and includes a 7,500-square-foot workout and training facility. The Fighters have held the first phase of Spring Training at the Padres' complex in Peoria, Ariz., the past few years."
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/262901260/cubs-make-pitch-to-shohei-ohtani/
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Source: One @MLB team in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani is on the verge of acquiring international slot money from #Twins in a trade tonight. @MLBNetwork
I think this is potentially bad news. No matter how much international slot money they have, the Cubs can't spend any more than $300K, right? And the top Braves free agents seem to be off the market.
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Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
Source: The Mariners are finalizing a trade with the Twins tonight to acquire more international bonus pool money. #ohtani
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Mariners acquired $1 million in international money.
Now Morosi is reporting another Ohtani contender is trying to acquire slot money. This may mean the Cubs are out.
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Or it may mean that those teams are out as money is not a huge factor for Ohtani but would be for Braves prospects.
Glass half full.
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Angels add $1 million too.
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Who did the mariners give up?
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David Banuelos, C from Mariners.
Jacob Pearson, OF from Angels.
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At what point could a team agree to ALLOW a player's contract to go to arbitration?
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Hard to spin this development as good news for the Cubs. Occam's Razor suggests the Angels and Mariners know they're finalists and want to play every card they can.
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it could mean the Mariners and Angels are the top two or they are just trying to gain any advantage they can. The Angels gave up a player that sounds like Dewees and the Mariners a defensive catcher. I’d give that up if I thought it gave me even a small chance to get Ohtani.
Have the Angels officially announced Maitlan? If not they have enough money to sign him from this pool.
I’ve given up trying to predict Ohtani. The info is on lockdown and nobody has a clue.
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Dennis Lin is probably the best random beat writer follow on Twitter. In response to Rosenthal pointing out how much more money the Rangers ($3.5 million), Mariners ($2.5 million), and Angels ($2.3 million) have to offer...
Dennis Lin@sdutdennislin
Fwiw, I’ve heard Ohtani’s annual endorsements in Japan are worth at least double the Rangers’ max bonus offer.
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It's clear money isn't the primary motivator for Otani or else he wouldn't be coming over now, instead of two years from now. But maybe people are too quick to dismiss the difference between a potential $3.5 or $2.5 million and 300K. Remember, as someone who's not likely to speak English publicly much if at all, Otani's endorsement opportunities in the States will be limited. What if he blows his arm out before he can negotiate a lucrative extension? Those few million bucks could make a big difference.
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That could be true, got a great opportunity, and money isn't top priority, but scraping by on $3M plus endorsements might more easily tide a guy over for a while until the hundreds of millions come in.
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If they ever do come in. Until he signs a big extension, nothing is a lock.
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None of that has anything to do with Otani or his decision, of course.
What
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Ohtani made $2.4 million playing in Japan and has according to Lin $7+ million in endorsements in Japan already. The guy has his parents keep track of money and his mom started putting a $1000/month in his bank account that he rarely touched. I think he’ll be ok.
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Easy for you to say. The kid's giving up a ton of money coming over now, but that doesn't mean it's not at least a factor in his mind. I still say people are too quick to dismiss it.
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I've never been very good at reading tea leaves. So I won't try to speculate about what, if any, significance there is to any of this.
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Easy for you to say. The kid's giving up a ton of money coming over now, but that doesn't mean it's not at least a factor in his mind. I still say people are too quick to dismiss it.
I have no clue what the guy wants. What we know about him and money seems to point to it not being a bid deal. 4/7 teams are limited to $300,000 and he is turning down a chance at $200 million by not waiting 2 years. He also eliminated 2/3 teams with $3+ million in bonus money.
My hunch is he is going to the team with the best plan for him. If it is a tie, maybe the $1 million tips the scale between teams. He earned $10 million last year he can live off that if his parents invest in marginally well for him the rest of his life. He can afford to not consider money. He isn’t a poor kid from the Dominican.
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I would imagine he will do quite well in endorsements once he is playing in the states. Yes, he is walking away from big money by coming now, but regardless of where he plays, he won't be hurting.
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I would imagine he will do quite well in endorsements once he is playing in the states. Yes, he is walking away from big money by coming now, but regardless of where he plays, he won't be hurting.
The greatest Japanese star in American baseball is, indisputably, Ichiro. But how much endorsement work has Ichiro done in the States? Not much. And how many times can you remember Ichiro publicly speaking English - in an interview, say? Ichiro understands English and can say the words, believe me, but most Japanese people are very self-conscious about their English pronunciation and thus, reluctant to use it publicly.
Of course Ichiro's endorsement market in Japan has continued to be strong, in part because of his stardom in the U.S.. We're a long way from saying Otani is going to be that successful on the field, but it's possble - he does have the talent.
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Ohtani's endorsement money has always been in Japan. Bryant makes significantly less that athletes in other sports.
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I'm beginning to question the assumptions that were made about what Ohtani wants. Small market? The only one he hasn't eliminated was San Diego. Biggest Japanese star? Seems like Seattle and Texas should have been eliminated long ago. I think he has a good idea of where he wants to be and it's down to one or two teams, maybe always was. I picked Seattle, but I'm really feeling Chicago. It's not small market, it's not West Coast, and it's not DH friendly, so why are we still on the list, unless all the assumptions were wrong?
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Well, we know he likes big steaks.
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I think it all is about the plan for how he is going to be used and everything is secondary.
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Cubs have signed Chatwood for three years.
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Chatwood to the Cubs, 3 year deal. Not a fan.
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You all beat me.
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Depends on the numbers, but as you know I've been on Chatwood for a good while. Love the upside there.
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Depends on whether he was recommended by the scouts who recommended Arrieta or the ones who recommended Anderson.
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3 years $38 million.
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If that's all guaranteed money it's a lot, but pitching ain't cheap.
Except Otani. He's $300,000.
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3 years, $38 million is a lot to spend on upside. He's never been particularly good, is often injured, and walks a lot of batters--doesn't check many boxes for me.
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No bargains in free agency. If you think he’s worth a shot, though, you have to do what you have to do to bring him in, and it sounds like his upside is worth a shot.
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"He's never been good" but he's held opponents below .200 away from Coors both of the last two seasons. And he's a soon-to-be 28 year-old FA rather than 30 or 31. Sure it's a gamb le, but I think a smart one.
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So the Good with Tyler
-Velocity and a high spin rate curve ball. His slider and change-up seem decent.
-High GB%
- He won't pitch in Colorado
The Bad
- Lack of strike outs
- The walks
- The injuries
I'm not sure how I feel. $12 million if he can stay healthly isn't bad for a fifth starter. Their is plenty of upside if he can just have a little better control and with increased curve useage the K's might come. I get why the want him and I get why people are scared of him.
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Bob NightengaleVerified account @BNightengale
3m3 minutes ago
In last 2 seasons, Tyler Chatwood is tied with #Nats Stephen Strasburg for 2nd in the NL in road ERA with a 2.57 ERA, trailing only #Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (2.16 ERA).
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Also, doesn't cost us a pick.
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Bob NightengaleVerified account @BNightengale
3m3 minutes ago
In last 2 seasons, Tyler Chatwood is tied with #Nats Stephen Strasburg for 2nd in the NL in road ERA with a 2.57 ERA, trailing only #Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (2.16 ERA).
2016 xFIP Home 4.33 Away 4.40// FIP 4.97/3.70
2017 xFIP 4.14/4.30//FIP 5.11/4.79
His K/BB numbers are nearly identical on the road vs away. He gets some softer contact on the road (2016 there were less extra base hits on the road), but the dramatic change is in LOB% and BABIP. Basically I think if you are using his home/road splits to justify this signing let me quote Luke Skywalker, "This is not going to go the way you think."
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Thank goodness Theo runs this team and doesn't read all this bunk.
Also worth considering is that Chatwood is among the leaders in baseball in ground ball %, and Colorado's infield defense is terrible. Ours, meanwhile, may be the best in the game.
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If Chatwood can get this, I'd guess Cobb is going to be way more than I'd want to spend too.
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I hope not. If they sign Chatwood and Cobb this winter, it will have been a successful one.
Anyone have a scouting report on Chatwood. Above it mentioned a good fastball. Any readings?
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Here's Bleacher Nation's profile on him when they were looking at potential targets for this winter:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/17/taking-stock-of-potential-cubs-free-agent-targets-tyler-chatwood/
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I think this means Cobb is unlikely, personally - I can't see the Cubs dropping that kind of money on two projected #4 type FA starters. Assuming the Otani thing doesn't happen, I think the other SP comes via trade.
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If Chatwood can get this, I'd guess Cobb is going to be way more than I'd want to spend too.
Yeah, Cobb is going to be way pricier than numbers that were being mentioned earlier on.
Wonder if Chatwood's a guy who might be a good transition to relief? I'm not suggesting that's the plan or anything, but often things don't follow plan. Seems like he might be the sort who, in relief, the control would be less a thing; the fastball would play up; and with faster fastball the curve might become more deadly. And as is routine with wild starters, throwing fewer pitches in relief can help become more consistent.
Or, heh heh, if they were to, say, sign Cobb, and then Otani stunned everybody and unexpectedly chose the Cubs, :):):), ghdn maybe a Chadwood could get bumped to the pen and become a stud reliever or something! :)
At 28, hopefully the Cubs have some ideas and Hickey can help Chatwood to step up his game, and he's ready to break through as a consistently good starter.
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I don't think that the Cubs have/had a reasonable chance for Otani. And recent events certainly don't sound promising.
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I think this means Cobb is unlikely, personally - I can't see the Cubs dropping that kind of money on two projected #4 type FA starters. Assuming the Otani thing doesn't happen, I think the other SP comes via trade.
I'd agree this might seem to mean Cobb is less likely.
Still don't see the trade, thing, though. Don't think Happ is going to bring what you want; don't think they want to sell low on Schwarber, or that he'd get what you want anyway; and don't think they're going to trade Baez.
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I'd agree this might seem to mean Cobb is less likely.
Still don't see the trade, thing, though. Don't think Happ is going to bring what you want; don't think they want to sell low on Schwarber, or that he'd get what you want anyway; and don't think they're going to trade Baez.
But they pretty much have to bring in one more SP who's not a fringy #6 type. If it's not Cobb or similar and it's not a trade, what is it? Could be Darvish I suppose but I've always been skeptical of that possibility.
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Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance
Tyler Chatwood has thrown 11,490 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2017, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2017, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph), Sinker (95mph) and Slider (90mph), also mixing in a Curve (80mph). He also rarely throws a Change (88mph).
BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2017 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical and has slightly above average velo. His sinker has surprisingly little armside run, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sinkers, results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has well above average velo and has little sinking action compared to a true sinker. His slider is thrown extremely hard, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, has less than expected depth and has primarily 12-6 movement. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' curves, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' curves, has a sharp downward bite and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' changeups, has surprising cut action and is much firmer than usual.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=543022
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Chacin?
Cobb is better than Chatwood, just because his contract might be more than what I'd want to spend on him doesn't mean the Cubs will view it the same way. If the choice is a pitcher like Cobb and it costing Happ or paying Cobb more money, paying Cobb more money is fine by me. Just get Ohtani and it all becomes mute anyway. :)
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I cant hate on signing Chatwood.
We desperately need pitching and he does have the potential to be better than average.
Now if we do land Cobb that's a strong starting 6.
We legitimately have 5 now.
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We do?
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Lester,Quintana,Hendricks, Chatwood,Montgomery.
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Epstein already said Montgomery is going to be in the swing role, not in the rotation.
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They've already said Montgomery is probably going to start the season in the bullpen, so you can't count him.
If the Cubs got Ohtani, I wouldn't be surprised if they still added another starter (Cobb?) and ended up with some kind of modified six man rotation. That seems to be the plan the Rangers have to help Ohtani adjust, and the Cubs are going to need some pretty strong insurance for Chatwood & Ohtani since they don't have a track record for pitching a lot of innings.
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Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 52m52 minutes ago
The Cubs' rotation is a work in progress, with additional depth needed. For now:
Jon Lester
Kyle Hendricks
Jose Quintana
Tyler Chatwood
Eddie Butler
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http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/260793498/5-ways-tyler-chatwood-could-be-charlie-morton/
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Then we do need another starter then and I kinda like Eddie Butler.
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Thanks, Play, that's a really interesting article.
1. The curveball spin rate is always mentioned. But he says he didn't use it much (10%) because he didn't have a feel for it. *IF* he can develop a feel for it, and control it, so that he can be effectively throwing 25% curve instead of 10%, could be huge. And could result in massive jump in K-rate.
2. I have no scouting reason to guess whether that's likely. Edwards and Grimm and Strop and Rondon all have killer breaking balls, too. But without command, and if hitters just spit on them, how often can you throw them?
3. The jump in fastball velocity is quite interesting.
4. Seems to me that if velocity is up, thanks to mechanical adjustment; and IF he were to more frequently and better utilize the curve, there's a lot of possibilities.
5. I thought the bit about 1st time, 2nd time, and 3rd time through order was also really interesting. A problem, of course, is that if you're walking everybody, you may not get through the lineup that quickly. If the plan is to throw more wild curveballs, so that you naturally walk more guys, you'll be getting in the 3rd-time-through-lineup in the fifth innning.
6. This is where the Cubs success in bullpen-improvement is so crucial. If you've got a deep, good bullpen, then a game plan of 5-innings-then-pen can really work. But if you're terrified of your crummy wild bullpen, and that means you're going to be using a Grimm wildman all the time, it's a lose-lose deal. Also feel like Maddon perhaps modifying his bullpen approach may be critical. May need to let guys pitch full innings, and let RH-reliever face LH hitters, for the 8-month-season logic even if it means putting some games at risk regular-season.
7. It's interesting that we repeatedly see "ERA" in these discussions, as if it was 1975. As blue notes, yes Catwood's road ERA was very good; but is that real and sustainable? There may be some fluke there, and the flat K/BB rate suggests he probably really shouldn't be expected to be that good on the road. (Although still better than Lackey, no argument).
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I like the signing. Think it's fun. And as deeg notes, think it's a great match with our infield defense.
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Yes, but br and CBJ don't like it, so it must stink.
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Basic description of 2017 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball is a real worm killer... His curve is a real worm killer... His change is a real worm killer...
Look out, worms of Wrigley.
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Yes, but br and CBJ don't like it, so it must stink.
Glad you're catching on and recognize who knows what they're talking about.[purple]
Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation. Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been. I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again).
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Glad you're catching on and recognize who knows what they're talking about.[purple]
Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation. Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been. I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again).
Just yanking chains of friends. ;D
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Just yanking chains of friends. ;D
Friends? You have no friends.
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I think that Epstein's comment about starting Montgomery in the pen was based upon the assumption that they will sign another starter, and not need him in the pen. But if for whatever reason that they do not sign one (or lose one in spring training) I believe that Epstein would have no problems with Montgomery as the fifth starter. Personally, if they can't sign Cobb or someone similar, I would prefer to see them begin with 6 starters, with Montgomery and Butler sharing the fifth spot. It would give us a chance to find out if either one can do the job.
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Count me as pro-Chatwood, for sure.
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I think that Epstein's comment about starting Montgomery in the pen was based upon the assumption that they will sign another starter, and not need him in the pen. But if for whatever reason that they do not sign one (or lose one in spring training) I believe that Epstein would have no problems with Montgomery as the fifth starter. Personally, if they can't sign Cobb or someone similar, I would prefer to see them begin with 6 starters, with Montgomery and Butler sharing the fifth spot. It would give us a chance to find out if either one can do the job.
I'd like to see them with 6 starters too, the last two being Darvish and Ohtani.
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Two things...
1) Colorado’s infield defense is terrible? Really? In what bizarro world?
2) Chatwood reminds me quite a bit of Matt Clement. I was a big Clement fan.
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Two things...
1) Colorado’s infield defense is terrible? Really? In what bizarro world?
Yes. Frightful. Except 3B. Oh, and 2B. And Shortstop. Yeah, except for those 3 positions, their infield sucks.
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Haven’t gotten a great deal from my source but was told that nothing will happen until Ohtani situation has been determined. My guess is that the signing of Chatwood is indicative of the Cubs being told they aren’t getting Ohtani. This is assuming that he was straight forward with me.
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Bleacher Nation @BleacherNation
Chatwood's 58.1% groundball rate was 5th best in baseball in 2017.
Extremely relatedly? The Rockies had only the 13th best defensive efficiency against grounders in 2017 (per BP).
The Cubs? They had the best.
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...Like CBJ, I recognize what people like about it. There's definite upside with him. Philosophically, though, I just don't think he's the guy the Cubs need. They're already a really good team, so they just need to not suck at the back of the rotation. Chatwood could be a guy who ends up settling in as a strong #2 for the next three years...but he's just as likely to continue to be the injury prone back end starter he's always been. I'd prefer someone like Cobb whose expected outcome is much more settled (assuming he doesn't blow out his elbow again).
Not quite sure I'm tracking, br. You're saying they just need to not suck at the back; but then you're not satisfied with Chatwood? Isn't that exactly what he is, an anti-awful #5 starter, only with a chance to perhaps be better than just anti-awful?
At least, that's how I'm envisioning this, that's he's #5, but that they're going to add somebody perhaps more established as the #4, from the Cobb/Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn group. (Or Ohtani, of course, in the dream world.)
I'd think Hendricks/Quintana/Lester/Cobb/Chatwood could be a pretty competitive regular-season rotation, with good infield defense, if the bullpen and offense were good.
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I would say I’m neutral. There are things to like and things to be scared about.
The Cubs always needed 2 starters so I’m not sure it says anything about Ohtani.
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Haven’t gotten a great deal from my source but was told that nothing will happen until Ohtani situation has been determined. My guess is that the signing of Chatwood is indicative of the Cubs being told they aren’t getting Ohtani. This is assuming that he was straight forward with me.
Thanks jhawk. Being optimist, I'd spin/hope it differently. They needed to add two rotation starters. If Chatwood is one of them, there's still plenty of space for Ohtani. So, not going to sign Arrieta or Darvish or Cobb or Lynn until Ohtani is determined. But this in itself isn't that big of a signing, this isn't the big stuff. Obviously any starter, and any >$10/year addition, isn't "nothing". But maybe in your friend's eyes, this is kinda "nothing" relative to the bigger move he's expecting.
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Isn't that exactly what he is, an anti-awful #5 starter, only with a chance to perhaps be better than just anti-awful?
Well, he's anti-awful when he's on the field. But staying on the field has been a major problem for him. If he's out for 60 games and is struggling to get through 5 innings when he's healthy because he throws so many balls, there are a lot of innings that are going to have to be covered by the worst relievers on the team and guys like Butler or Tseng.
When the team is already really good, I'm just a big fan of filling less important roles (back end starters, middle relievers, bottom of the lineup) with as much certainty as possible. It's kind of like when Hendry needed a LH hitting right fielder after 2008 and went for the injury-prone upside in Bradley instead of taking the relative certainty of the more boring, steady bats on the market that year (Raul Ibanez or post-Phillies Bobby Abreu, to name a couple). Obviously, Bradley's personality made him far more risky than Chatwood. But there is some similarity in the on-the-field risk where you don't have a clear understanding of what or how much you're going to get.
I hope it works out. And despite my doubts, I'm fairly optimistic it will be fine because the Cubs' front office has a really good track record. But it's just taking on more risk than I think is necessary for this team.
(By the way, I think this would be an excellent move for a team like the Angels, Mariners, Pirates, or Rays who are close to contention but have limited resources and need to take a risk on an upside player or two.)
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-the-cubs-might-see-in-tyler-chatwood/
Just adds more info. My worry is the walks and injuries. The stuff is intriguing.
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You guys need to look at the big picture and the brighter side of all this: better Chatwood on the DL than Ohtani.
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One thing the Cubs have done better than the rest of MLB over the last few years is to keep their starters relatively healthy.
If that is in fact a function of conditioning routines or use or anything else other than random chance, it could portend good things for Chitwood's health with the Cubs, and if he remains reasonably healthy with the Cubs, he could prove a very nice signing..
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Chitwood, Jes?
We aint talking about Hoosiers here.
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Well, if this is right, the Cubs are on Stanton's very limited trade list.
Craig Mish @CraigMish
Now told Stanton will approve :
Dodgers
Yankees
Cubs
Astros
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To hell with that unless they'll trade him for just Heyward.
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Well, if this is right, the Cubs are on Stanton's very limited trade list.
Craig Mish @CraigMish
Now told Stanton will approve :
Dodgers
Yankees
Cubs
Astros
LOL. Just our luck.
Stanton is a legit great player, but it's hard to see that deal ever making sense for the Cubs.
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Not sure. Cubs have a window now, and not sure how long it's going to last.
Stanton is a premium player with a contract that is very reasonable during the upcoming window.
Next five years, Stanton is at a Heyward-caliber price, with his prime overlapping very nicely with the Cubs prime window.
What he'll be 6-10 years from now, that might be a bad deal then. But if they have a dynasty during his next 5, to which he would greatly contribute, what would be so bad about that?
May also be that 6 years out, if contract inflation continues, that his contract won't look so bad.
We can worry about his 2024 contract in 2024, but he could be really really good value to a contending team over the next handful of years. Heh heh, and adding another .900-1.050 OPS guy in the middle of the lineup, rather than Zobrist, would be a big impact.
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Cubs Insider reporter that a a Japanese reporter following Ohtani flew from LA to Chicago. What that means I have no clue.
If Heyward would opt out I’d trade for Stanton, but $50+ million in RF seems hard to stomach.
‘
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Stanton would be a lot cheaper than Bryce Harper next year.
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Original report came from Sun Times about the reporter.
I guess you could platoon Heyward/Almora in CF and change Stanton’s opt out date.
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So, he's rejected the Giants and Cardinals? Interesting. Actually, that list looks like he wants to be a Dodger.
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Cubs Insider reporter that a a Japanese reporter following Ohtani flew from LA to Chicago. What that means I have no clue.
All my digits crossed!
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So, he's rejected the Giants and Cardinals? Interesting. Actually, that list looks like he wants to be a Dodger.
Both this, and he wants to be on a juggernaut.
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...If Heyward would opt out I’d trade for Stanton, but $50+ million in RF seems hard to stomach.
Stanton would be a lot cheaper than Bryce Harper next year.
..I guess you could platoon Heyward/Almora in CF and change Stanton’s opt out date.
Like Ray said, plenty of fans have dreamed for Harper next year; Stanton's contract will look teensy by comparison, plus you'd have him for 2018 in case you want to take a run this year. Stanton's contract over the next 5-7 years will be a great value, compared to if he was a FA or what Harper will get. His short-term salary is on par with guys like Heyward and Lester, not bad at all. It's the length that's the thing. But who knows, the guy is great and might last very well. And the way contracts inflate, late in contract it might be very modest, such that it won't kill you if he's not even playing.
Not sure that just because you signed a deal, that you need to start Heyward for the next 6 years. The money is gone, but what's gained by doubling the mistake and reminding yourself of that mistake every time through the lineup as a rally-killer auto-out? If you were to spend more, and the wins-above-Heyward were substantial, no different from wins-above-replacement at any other spot.
But, I have no idea what Stanton trade would involve. Cubs have nothing much to trade, so if it's both the contract and a harvest of young talent, even if the Cubs do have the cash they don't have much in the way of expendable young talent to exchange. So, totally don't see that.
Think Stanton's list is kinda smart. He's been on a loser, those four teams are going to be four winners for sure. And all winners where taking on his contract won't crimp the team's ability to afford strong surrounding talent. If the Cubs figure they can't afford surrounding talent in addition to Stanton, that he's too expensive, then he is well served to have his list further reduced. If he's too good for the Cubs, LA or Yankees can both certainly afford him and championship teammates besides. He's in a great spot.
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Original report came from Sun Times about the reporter.
I guess you could platoon Heyward/Almora in CF and change Stanton’s opt out date.
Looking at what was reported to be the players in the SF deal, I'm thinking Almora would be Miami bound. If the Giants lose out on both Stanton and Ohtani, it may be time to talk to them about Heyward.
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Theo on Chatwood.
http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20171207/cubs-epstein-chatwoods-a-guy-weve-been-after-for-a-while
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I think Stanton wants to go to the Dodgers and the Cubs have little interest. I think the Marlins will have to take whatever to get rid of Stanton from whoever trades for him.
Harper is younger and you get more peak years and he doesn't cost prospects.
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Stanton isn't going to take that much prospectwise and you are saving 100+ million. Both seem a tad injury prone to me. Im not sure pursuing Stanton is the right move but I think it might be the smarter option over Harper (tho I'd still like to see them sign Harper). I'm just trying to look at this with an open mind.
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Supposed insider Marlin Bystro (who has gotten things right in the past) has reappeared on Prosportsdailly, and had this to say: "It's been a while, but I heard that the Cubs are cautiously optimistic on Ohtani. Doesn't mean much since no one really knows anything for sure, but it's clear they are preparing for a potential 6 man rotation just in case."
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Supposed insider Marlin Bystro (who has gotten things right in the past) has reappeared on Prosportsdailly, and had this to say: "It's been a while, but I heard that the Cubs are cautiously optimistic on Ohtani. Doesn't mean much since no one really knows anything for sure, but it's clear they are preparing for a potential 6 man rotation just in case."
This is the one "supposed insider" who I take seriously.
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"He's uber-talented, a right-hander moving into his prime. He's got great makeup. We think his best days are ahead of him, getting him into an environment where we think he can gain consistency with all of his pitches and play to his strengths a little bit more." Theo
"It's going to be nice," he said. "To be able to have the same routine and be able to work on stuff and have your ball do the same thing home and away, it's going to be nice." Chatwood
In Cubs Way book, Arrieta talked about how with Cubs he came to a point where he felt like *if* he could repeat his delivery exactly, he knew where to aim the ball in order to have it end up moving and finishing reproducibly low-outside corner. Even with all the movement, *if* he could reproduce every detail of delivery, he could approximately reproduce the spot and moderate his volume of walks. Every pitcher must have that, kind of automate everything for glove-side and arm-side corners low and high.
But for Chatwood, if exactly reproduced delivery spots the ball at very different spots in Denver versus road, in a sense he'd need to double his number of reproducible deliveries. Perhaps move to Cubs will help Chatwood to reduce the number of deliveries he needs to automate, and improve consistency, particularly with curve.
I suspect that having fewer deliveries to reproduce is one of the reason guys often improve in relief. Let-it-rip jump in velocity is obviously huge. But sometimes (Grimm and Strop excepted, of course!!!), using mostly only a couple of pitches in relief makes guys better able to reproduce delivery and improves control in addition to throwing harder.
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...., but it's clear they are preparing for a potential 6 man rotation just in case."
That's an interesting aspect, if true. Pre-Chatwood, they were two-guys-short of a 5-man without Ohtani, and still two-short of a 6-man with Ohtani.
If you need two starters either way, and given that Ohtani won't cost anything for the first year or two, it would seem that the budget planning and spending targets for this winter would not necessarily hinge that much on whether Ohtani shocks you and says yes, or does the expected and says no. If you want and can afford both Chatwood and Cobb, for example, you might pursue them regardless.
Perhaps Ohtani would actually have a bigger impact on outfield targets than on rotation/relief?
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This is the one "supposed insider" who I take seriously.
Yeah, but he hasn't had much to share since Tim Wilken left the organization. I suspect he's not very plugged into the Cubs anymore, but could probably get some pretty interesting Diamondbacks rumors.
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Where is wetbutt when you need him.
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It's all rumor at this stage, but Otani seems very keen on the 6-man rotation idea. It would seem to give him more opportunities to hit.
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Is the assumption that a six man rotation would give Otani more days to rest and to play the outfield? So we have 4 now. I suppose Butler and Montgomery would be insurance, but who else do we get? A one year deal to Lackey? I hear Brett Anderson is available. Kill me now. Cobb still a target? Liriano? Sabathia! Would be nice to get another lefty. Jaime Garcia? Oft injured but surprisingly effective for the money.
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Where is wetbutt when you need him.
Davep is in Florida I thnk.
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Finding a 6th starter if we get Otani is, honestly, the least of our problems. Getting him basically free gives you plenty of money to sign a decent #5-type for two years.
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Is the assumption that a six man rotation would give Otani more days to rest and to play the outfield? So we have 4 now. I suppose Butler and Montgomery would be insurance, but who else do we get? A one year deal to Lackey? I hear Brett Anderson is available. Kill me now. Cobb still a target? Liriano? Sabathia! Would be nice to get another lefty. Jaime Garcia? Oft injured but surprisingly effective for the money.
Isn't the 6-man schedule closer to his frequency in Japan? And if so, all the more reason to take seriously the 2-way usage?
With Chatwood as #5 I've been assuming #4 would be targetted for somebody at a higher class: somebody from the Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta/Darvish group. Not from the lower Anderson-style class. :)
Not sure Ohtani would change that much. Maybe somebody Arrieta-price would be less needful, and could afford a lesser 6th guy? Maybe Cobb or Lynn would still make great sense, AND be affordable? Maybe Darvish would actually be a great fit in an Ohtani-Chatwood rotation?
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6-man would be interesting from the roster-standpoint. I thought Maddon had tired/worn-out some of his relievers the last couple of years. Would adding an extra 6th starter:
1. Come at the expense of a reliever?
2. Come at the expense of another position sub?
3. Have a starter available each day? (Sunday starter is available for relief on Wednesday; Monday starter on Thursday, etc... On 6-day rotation, every day you've got a guy at least 3 days from last and next start....)
4. Significantly change Maddon's bullpen usage and cut down on the mid-inning switches? Have more 2-inning outings?
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6 man would be once a week most of the time, so close to Japan.
If the Cubs got Ohtani, I'd line up the rotation Ohtani, Quintana, Hedricks, Lester, Chatwood, ???. So somebody in Cobb's class would be more of a luxury as the playoff rotation would be Ohtani, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester is some order.
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Pen and pitching-coach tangent: To what extent are pitching switches and pen usage Maddon, versus Bosio/Hickey?
Is it possible that Hickey will have different views, that impact the frequency of mid-inning ROOGY switches?
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Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):
“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”
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There's a bit of smoke out there, enough to make me believe there's at least some buzz that the Cubs feel good about Otani (whether they actually do or not).
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Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):
“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”
I know Theo is THEO! But still, this would be one heck of an accomplishment if he's able to recruit Ohtani in these circumstances.
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To me, the Cubs have always seemed like a logical landing spot for Ohtani. Assuming NL teams were under consideration at all.
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6-man would be interesting from the roster-standpoint. I thought Maddon had tired/worn-out some of his relievers the last couple of years. Would adding an extra 6th starter:
1. Come at the expense of a reliever?
2. Come at the expense of another position sub?
3. Have a starter available each day? (Sunday starter is available for relief on Wednesday; Monday starter on Thursday, etc... On 6-day rotation, every day you've got a guy at least 3 days from last and next start....)
4. Significantly change Maddon's bullpen usage and cut down on the mid-inning switches? Have more 2-inning outings?
Haven't some teams been campaigning, along with the union, to expand the roster by one? Cubs would probably move to the front of the line.
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Like Chatwood said, why would anybody not want to play for the Cubs these days?
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Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):
“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”
I gather someone else posted that Olney had said this (given the "supposedly"). But Olney apparently has not tweeted or otherwise mentioned this in any way that I can find. Count me as skeptical about Olney saying this without something more tangible.
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http://www.espn.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=21711234
Ohtani starts at 6 minute mark. The quote is that from talking to execs of other teams that have talked to the Cubs is that the Cubs feel really good.
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Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):
“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”
Smoke within the industry, sure. That's fun.
Cubs always talk about "process, not results". So they can feel great about their process. But I don't think they can know what the actual result will be and what Ohtani will decide.
Also can't even possibly imagine Theo is telling other GM's about what he's thinking or expecting, so what do they know? .
Heh heh, nor do I think Ohtani is telling Japanese journalist what he's going to decide, even if he's already made up his mind.
Still, it's fun to not be out of it!
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http://www.espn.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=21711234
Ohtani starts at 6 minute mark. The quote is that from talking to execs of other teams that have talked to the Cubs is that the Cubs feel really good.
I think Olney's description (the Cubs feeling really good about their presentation, etc) is far short of saying that the "Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident."
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And remember this is coming from other teams, not the Cubs.
I think the more interesting stuff on Ohtani is the silence surrounding his recruitment. Only the Giants and Mariners have given even a small amount of info about his recruitment and that it might be coming more from the teams not wanting to offend Ohtani becuase no body is sure what he is looking for. Buster even speculated that his agents may not really be sure what he wants.
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Dylan Hernandez tweeted Ohtani to the Angels.
Multiple tweets now. Ohtani and Trout is at least fun.
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All the national guys are following up, Angels win.
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Jeff PassanVerified account
@JeffPassan
In the statement announcing Shohei Ohtani will sign with the Los Angeles Angels, agent Nez Balelo said: “In the end, he felt a strong connection with the Angels and believes they can best help him reach his goals in Major League Baseball.”
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Well, that's too bad.
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Well, if not the Cubs, better the Angels than the Dodgers (or the Giants).
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Shohei, enjoy getting your ass kicked by the Astros for the next few years.
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Wow, fast. Pretty cool that this whole thing has moved so fast.
O well, never thought Cubs had much chance anyway.
Angels and M's, AL-DH teams on west coast, always made the most sense And Angels with money and contention, makes more sense than M's.
Marketing great there.
Makes all the sense in the world at every level.
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Glad he didnt go to the NL if he wasn't gonna be a Cub.
The AL fits his skill set better.
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Disappointed, but at least now, other chips should fall pretty quickly.
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
#Cubs fans, know that Theo Epstein and his staff did all they could to impress Shohei Ohtani: Their presentation included a Virtual Reality experience of his possible life as a Cub. @MLB @MLBNetwork
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I was skeptical, but today I got really loopy hopeful, now I'm depressed. Gonna go eat worms. Big fat fuzzy ones, little slippery wiggly ones, a maybe a slug or two.
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Amazing how much this hurts, even though I always knew we were an extreme longshot. Otani is such a freak at this cost it's almost impossible to gauge his surplus value.
I really don't know where the Cubs go after this. Cobb makes little sense to me after signing Chatwood, and the other FA options apart from Darvish are pretty unappealing. I know next winter is a much better FA class to say the least, but can you really afford to throw away a year of your window when windows close so fast modern baseball?
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The Cubs play the Angels a couple times in spring training but there are no inter league games during the season between the two clubs.
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Amazing how much this hurts, even though I always knew we were an extreme longshot. Otani is such a freak at this cost it's almost impossible to gauge his surplus value.
I really don't know where the Cubs go after this. Cobb makes little sense to me after signing Chatwood, and the other FA options apart from Darvish are pretty unappealing. I know next winter is a much better FA class to say the least, but can you really afford to throw away a year of your window when windows close so fast modern baseball?
Heh heh, that's kind of how I felt, too. Never thought we had much chance, but then some of the morning buzz was getting hopes up; and with him the hopes for years of greatness were just limitless. O well, back to reality, as is the usual way in life! :)
I don't see the "Cobb makes little sense" bit, though. Why not, and what does Chatwood have to do with that? With Chatwood in hand, Cobb to me actually seems like as good or better a fit than ever. Certainly can budget-fit both. Cobb's not too old, age fits. Obviously Cobb's very limited velocity-wise, but there's potental to pitch significantly better future than he has past, if he could recover feel and touch on his weird ball. If you got the good versions of both of those guys, you could have a very good, contender-ish rotation, and either could pitch their way into playoff rotation. Cobb makes excellent sense, in my always-hopeful, always-optimistic view. I don't think a rotation with Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, Cobb, and Chatwood would be necessarily too weak to have WS-aspirations, if things broke right. (Obviously you'd need to have some hitters hit....)
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People are underrating Quintana, Hendricks and Lester here too.
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I'd be all for a Cobb signing.
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Craig, I just don't see the sense in spending 100-million plus on two guys are basically #4-5 starters (though Chatwood has the upside to be more). Cobb isn't all that appealing to me, TBH - he's a two-pitch pitcher who's never thrown 200 innings, and he's going to cost probably 5 years at 70 million-plus.
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Cobb was tied for 36 in fWAR with Jake Arrieta. If that is your definition of a 4/5th starter....
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Mediocre stuff, mediocre peripherals, mediocre health. Mediocre pitcher.
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Buster Olney on ESPN 1000 in Chicago just now (supposedly):
“Multiple GM’s around the league feel the Cubs feel EXTREMELY confident about their chances about getting Ohtani after their presentation”
I believe we received the same reports about Tanaka after the interview with him.
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Ill admit that once I realized Otani was basically gonna sign for free I was all for him but now that we didnt Ill let it be known that I dont think he's gonna be a two way player.
He'll be an elite pitcher that can hit ala Madison Bumgardner but what good will that do in the AL?
And we all know the injury history of Japanese pitchers.
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I think that Cobb is the very best we can hope for. I doubt very seriously that the Cubs will seriously consider coming up with the money for Darvish or Arrieta.
Possibly Lynn, if you think he is better than Cobb.
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I don't think this is how it's going to play out, but I'd rather fill out the rotation with some ham-n-eggers and load up the bullpen - Morrow, Reed, and a third.
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I think I would, too. Sign a 5th starter with high risk but some upside, spend real money on real relievers and load up next winter then there's a glut in the SP market.
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I wonder if the Yankees are out on Alex Cobb now that they have Stanton. Are they close enough to the luxury tax that they're going to have to go cheaper to fill out the rotation?
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FWIW, Levine says the Cubs are pushing hard to sign Cobb before Monday.
Not that nuts for that move, not so much because Cobb isn't an OK pitcher but because that means $100 million+ dumped on two back-end rotation guys without doing anything to fix a badly broken bullpen losing its only reliable member, and five SP with multi-year commitments going into the best FA year for SP in baseball history. You'd basically be adding two starters who, unless they exceed expectations, really aren't guys you'd look forward to starting in a postseason game.
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Ha, I'd like a Cobb signing...I guess we're on opposite sides of all pitchers this offseason. Ideally, he'd have a history of eating more innings. But when healthy (and he seemed to be fully back from TJ by the end of the year), he's been a consistent 2.5-3 win pitcher. If he pitches 175ish innings again next year, he's exactly how I wanted the Cubs to fill out the back of the rotation.
If they do settle the rotation before the meetings really start, I wonder (and maybe this is just wishful thinking) if that makes them more likely to go hard after Yelich. As good as the free agent market is for relievers, I don't think they're going to use any of their top trade depth for the bullpen. So they'd be in a position to be aggressive with the Marlins.
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Ha, I'd like a Cobb signing...I guess we're on opposite sides of all pitchers this offseason. Ideally, he'd have a history of eating more innings. But when healthy (and he seemed to be fully back from TJ by the end of the year), he's been a consistent 2.5-3 win pitcher. If he pitches 175ish innings again next year, he's exactly how I wanted the Cubs to fill out the back of the rotation.
Chatwood and Cobb is problematical for a number of reasons, another one of which is that both have below-average track records when it comes to staying healthy. If you somehow got 30 starts from each of them, this looks like a rotation that could get you to the postseason pretty well. But it's not an intimidating playoff rotation by any stretch - it just lacks the shutdown power guys that dominate in October and November. Maybe Lester can be that guy again, maybe he can't. I don't see that out of the others.
The biggest issue is that the bullpen was a disaster in October, and it's going to require a massive overhaul that hasn't even begun yet. Is there enough money left to sign all the guys necessary to rebuild it?
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Levine is also linking the Cubs to Morrow and Reed...
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Those would be two signings I would wholeheartedly support.
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FWIW, Levine says the Cubs are pushing hard to sign Cobb before Monday.
Levine is also linking the Cubs to Morrow and Reed...
Interesting. A team always is interested in a million guys, and gets only a few. So, who knows.
Would be fun to haul in all three of those guys.
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deeg, I don't see it the same re Cobb/Chatwood.
1. Don't think that would preclude signing pretty interesting relievers, plural. IIRC, Jeff had us down around $120, maybe less; so $12 Chatwood, $14-15 Cobb, $8-each for a couple of relievers, could still have some room.
2. Also not sure that filling the rotation with $10/year guys would preclude going after a good playoff-starter next winter. With another year on his tired, Lester might be cooked by then. If everybody is healthy and Lester is still a desirable rotation guy, that's all great; moving Chatwood at $12 to relief seems no problem.
I do agree that a rotation of Q, Lester, Hendricks, Cobb, and Chatwood, none of those guys look like they're going to be advantage-pitchers in the playoffs. When facing Scherzer or Strasburg or Kershaw, are there any of the Cubs 5 (hypothetically including Cobb) where you'd feel our guy was better than theirs, or more talented? We're going to pitching from behind, talent-wise, in the playoffs, that's a given. But, what do you do? It's not like there are any Strasburg-like aces sitting out there being offered in exchange for Almora or Happ or Zobrist.
I also agree that bullpen must improve. I think that might be more true than ever in event of Chatwood+Cobb being added as 5+4 starters. Neither have history of injury-durable; neither have history of innings-eaters. Chatwood's control and 1st-2nd-3rd-time-through-order combined with Cobb having only finally passed 150 innings, that suggests to me that both guys shouldn't be asked for 7 innings very often, and you should build your bullpen well enough so that if Chatwood normally gives you 5 good innings and Cobb 6, you can pick up the other 4 and 3 innings routinely by your pen. That may be problematic if doing so means you're alway turning to Grimm or Maples or Koji or somebody of the Felix Pena/Florio caliber. Pen obviously needs good guys plural.
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Maybe you don't do anything this year, but you sure as hell have to get yourself one of those "advantage" starters next winter, when so many of them are available. And at some point you probably have to trade Schwarber or Russell or Baez for another one, because if you're going to win another World Series you probably need two of them in your rotation.
Incidentally, there was an ace pitcher being offered last season for that type of talent in exchange - and the Astros traded for him. It seemed to work out pretty well for them.
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I’m not seeing a glut of “advantage-starters” in FA next year. Kershaw and... ? Gio Gonzalez? That’s the only SP I’m seeing who is clearly superior to the Chatwood/Cobb level of SP this year, to say nothing of Arrieta and Darvish. What am I missing? If anything, next year’s FA SP class looks light. Way more pitching on the FA market this year. Next year it’s bats and RP.
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I dont see how anyone here could complain with Chatwood and hopefully Cobb unless they want us to sign Darvish.
I do agree that we need a few upper tier relievers though.
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.......have to get yourself one of those "advantage" starters next winter, when so many of them are available. And at some point you probably have to trade Schwarber or Russell or Baez for another one.....
Nobody's trading a playoff-advantage ace starter for Schwarber, Russell, or Baez. Not great enough hitters for that.
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I’m not seeing a glut of “advantage-starters” in FA next year. Kershaw and... ? Gio Gonzalez? That’s the only SP I’m seeing who is clearly superior to the Chatwood/Cobb level of SP this year, to say nothing of Arrieta and Darvish. What am I missing? If anything, next year’s FA SP class looks light. Way more pitching on the FA market this year. Next year it’s bats and RP.
Full list
Madison Bumgarner (29) — $12MM club option
Carlos Carrasco (32) — $9MM club option with a $663K buyout
Patrick Corbin (29)
Nathan Eovaldi (29)
Doug Fister (35) — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (33)
Cole Hamels (35) — $20MM club/vesting option with a $6MM buyout
Jason Hammel (36) — $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
J.A. Happ (36)
Matt Harvey (30)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35)
Scott Kazmir (35)
Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)
Brandon McCarthy (35)
Matt Moore (30) — $10MM club option with a $750K buyout
Charlie Morton (35)
Wily Peralta (30) — $3MM club option with a $25K buyout
Martin Perez (28) — $7.5MM club option with a $750K buyout
Drew Pomeranz (30)
David Price (33) — can opt out of remaining four years and $127MM
Garrett Richards (31)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)
Chris Sale (30) — $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ervin Santana (36) — $14MM club/vesting option
James Shields (37) — $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Tomlin (34)
Edinson Volquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (37)
Travis Wood (32) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
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Maybe it's time to consider offering a 6-year deal to Arrieta. A rotation of Arrieta, Q, Hendricks, Lester, and Chatwood would be excellent. I'd rather take this aggressive approach than to sign another bottom of the rotation guy all things considered.
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If Cobb is a back end starter, then 2017 Arrieta was a back end starter too. Arrieta struck out a few more, but Cobb walked a few less. Everything else was almost identical:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4153,6562
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So Price is the only guy that might be added to the list, but with his elbow issues that is unlikely.
I think people are underrating Hendricks, Lester and Quintana. With more rest I think Hendricks will be more consistent and Lester will bounce back. Quintana is just underrated on this board for whatever reason. Even in 2016 I never felt great with any of the pitchers going up against Kershaw, Scherzer etc...
Bullpen needs work. I’d really like to see 3 guys added this year. Marrow, McGee and 1 other righty.
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br, I don't see it that way. Arrieta had a higher K rate (23.1% vs. 17.3%), a lower hard contact rate (29.4% vs. 36.9%), and a higher soft contact rate (20% vs. 14.9%). It is true that Cobb had a lower BB rate (5.9% vs. 7.8%). but to my eye the numbers indicate that Jake was indeed the better starter.
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br, I don't see it that way. Arrieta had a higher K rate (23.1% vs. 17.3%), a lower hard contact rate (29.4% vs. 36.9%), and a higher soft contact rate (20% vs. 14.9%). It is true that Cobb had a lower BB rate (5.9% vs. 7.8%). but to my eye the numbers indicate that Jake was indeed the better starter.
Couple problems with direct comparisons. Cobb pitches in the AL with a DH, so the K% is going to be less because he doesn’t get to face pitchers. Cobb also had trouble with the feel for his best pitch coming off TJS, but there isn’t any reason he can’t get this pitch back. Just moving to the NL will boost his K%. Plus the fact that when Cobb changed his approach to fastball/curve his K% was similar to Arrieta’s.
The Rays also gave up a lot of hard contact last year. Archer’s hard contact percentage has higher than Cobb’s last year at 39.4%. This was a 7% jump from from his career norms. Some have speculated that there has an issue with the Rays stadium inflating hard contact % with StatCast.
I think Jake will be a better version of Jake next year, but I think Cobb will be better next year too so the production will still be similar and Cobb will be tens of millions of dollars cheaper.
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Cobb and Arrieta may have gotten their results in different ways. But in the end, their ERAs were only marginally different, while their FIP and WAR were identical. Like CBJ, I expect both to be a little better next year. And I think both are mid rotation starters going forward.
Cobb's numbers you cited improved a lot in the second half, by the way, which is a very good sign coming off TJ.
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Red Sox are interested in Schwarber:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/east-notes-rumors-marlins-red-sox-schwarber-stanton.html
Seems unlikely, but I wonder what a trade including Benintendi would look like. It might require more players from both sides unless the Red Sox are interested in opening a spot for JD Martinez.
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I can't see the point in trading Schwarber for anything other than pitching, and I don't think he will get a top pitcher in return. I believe that this front office is still sold on Almora in center, and nothing in his record seems to indicate that they are wrong.
If they add Cobb, they will have an excellent starting pitching staff (barring injuries, which applies to every staff in baseball), and although there may be an increased chance of injury for the two of them based upon their history, there is also a good chance of a career year by either or both of them, because of their potential.
And they still have a top offense with the depth to deal with likely injuries. Obviously, they need to shore up the bull pen, but I have every expectation that they will do so.
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I would peg the likelihood of resigning Arrieta at 1%.. I don't want that contract.. Time to move on.
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
5m5 minutes ago
More
According to sources the Cubs are moving quickly on free agent set man Brandon Morrow.Morrow crazy numbers include zero home runs allowed in surrendered in 45 games last season. 6-0 record -10 K per 9 innings pitched ( 1.9 walks per 9 innnings) 0.91 WHIP.
Morrow was obviously great last season - the question is, do you believe it's sustainable? I like him as a target, but he's not going to be cheap. And is he being targeted as a closer or the 8th inning guy?
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Cubs are closing in on deal for brsndon morrow
Looks like the Cubs might get a chance to see if it's sustainable. I bet he is at least in the competition to close if they get him.
If they get Morrow, I'd like the next reliever to be a consistent pitcher who has been healthy. Reed or Shaw come to mind.
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Boy I like these pitching additions.
One has to think either Morrow is closing or we're signing a closer next because there cant be more than a couple spots left and that dont include Cobb.
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I'm fine with letting Morrow and Wilson battle for (or split) the closing duties. Don't waste precious resources on signing a "closer" just because they have a bunch of saves (an idiotic stat) on their resume. Sign one more solid setup guy - Reed, whoever, just not a lottery ticket - and focus on improving the roster in other places.
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Ken RosenthalVerified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
23m23 minutes ago
More
#Cubs close on Brandon Morrow, per @MLBBruceLevine. Had mentioned last week they were considering him to close. Likely will sign one other late-inning reliever as well.
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Reed and Cobb would be fine by me.
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Full list
Madison Bumgarner (29) — $12MM club option
Carlos Carrasco (32) — $9MM club option with a $663K buyout
Patrick Corbin (29)
Nathan Eovaldi (29)
Doug Fister (35) — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (33)
Cole Hamels (35) — $20MM club/vesting option with a $6MM buyout
Jason Hammel (36) — $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
J.A. Happ (36)
Matt Harvey (30)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35)
Scott Kazmir (35)
Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)
Brandon McCarthy (35)
Matt Moore (30) — $10MM club option with a $750K buyout
Charlie Morton (35)
Wily Peralta (30) — $3MM club option with a $25K buyout
Martin Perez (28) — $7.5MM club option with a $750K buyout
Drew Pomeranz (30)
David Price (33) — can opt out of remaining four years and $127MM
Garrett Richards (31)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)
Chris Sale (30) — $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ervin Santana (36) — $14MM club/vesting option
James Shields (37) — $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Tomlin (34)
Edinson Volquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (37)
Travis Wood (32) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
Ok, I missed Keuchel, but I don’t think he bears the playoff-advantage starter any more than Lester or Q. This year has much more appealing options on the SP front, IMO, and I’d be really happy with an acquisition of Cobb. There were some significant adjustments he made in the second half of the year that portend to a really good 2018, if healthy.
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Jon HeymanVerified account
@JonHeyman
Morrow will have deal with cubs. Expected to be for 10 or 11M a year.
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Ok, I missed Keuchel, but I don’t think he bears the playoff-advantage starter any more than Lester or Q. This year has much more appealing options on the SP front, IMO, and I’d be really happy with an acquisition of Cobb. There were some significant adjustments he made in the second half of the year that portend to a really good 2018, if healthy.
Well, there's also Baumgarner. Maybe the Giants won't exercise their club option. ;)
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Morosi saying 2 year deal with an option for Morrow.
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Passan says the Morrow deal is two years with an option. A little higher on AAV than I expected, but I'll take it if the deal is only 2 years guaranteed.
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Hoping that’s a team option...
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$10m/annum is about what I expected. If it's 2 years with a club option that's a great contract.
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Yeah, doubt that’s a club option. If so, awesome. Either way great.
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Hopefully that ridiculous abuse by Roberts in the playoffs didn't break Morrow.
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I bet Reed or McGee will be the next reliever. Then they can have a three way competition between Wilson, Reed/McGee, and Morrow for closer, and all have at least a little experience in the role previously.
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Joel ShermanVerified account
@Joelsherman1
#Cubs do have 2-yr agreement with Brandon Morrow as @JeffPassan reported, pending physical. #Cubs moving quick on targets Chatwood, Morrow and Cobb. If can get Cobb done, will feel have done heavy lifting then sit and see what comes to them or they find.
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Bad feeling that last year was a career year and a fluke.
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Joel ShermanVerified account
@Joelsherman1
#Cubs do have 2-yr agreement with Brandon Morrow as @JeffPassan reported, pending physical. #Cubs moving quick on targets Chatwood, Morrow and Cobb. If can get Cobb done, will feel have done heavy lifting then sit and see what comes to them or they find.
I'll be interested to see what follows if they get the Cobb deal done soon. Maybe it's nothing, but it definitely seems like if they get the big hurdles cleared early, they could spend the meetings trying to pull off something big and unexpected.
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I think our terminology is incorrect again. I don't think our FO is looking at Cobb and Chatwood as #4 #5 pitchers. They're gatering a flock of 2's and 3's
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They can hope for whatever outcome they want, doesn't make it likely.
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Hope Sherman is wrong on Jed being done if we get Cobb.
We still need another reliever unless you're happy with Montgomery, Wilson, Grimm, Strop, Maples, Edwards, Morrow.
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I'm surprised they don't try to re-sign Duensing.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Duensing is trying for a 2-3 year deal right now coming off his good season. He seems like the type who might ultimately be forced to take a 1 year, $3 million deal in February--there are just too many good options on the market for him to get a multi-year deal.
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Ok, I missed Keuchel, but I don’t think he bears the playoff-advantage starter any more than Lester or Q. This year has much more appealing options on the SP front, IMO, and I’d be really happy with an acquisition of Cobb. There were some significant adjustments he made in the second half of the year that portend to a really good 2018, if healthy.
I agree, other then Kershaw and Keuchel, there isnt too much to be excited about in next years SP class.
IMO Kershaw will be resigned by the dodgers, so you have Keuchel, Price (if he opts out) and a lot of blah next year for SPs.
IF cobb costs less then 15 a year for 3-4 years, he is a good upside signing... he will get you 2-3 war seasons with a peak of 4.5 one year over that contract.
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Wherever Kershaw signs, if I’m giving +$40M/yr to someone next winter, it’s not the 30 yr old pitcher with back problems.
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Friend who attended Arkansas with Smyly said he’s visiting with Cubs today.
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Nice
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Smyly is frighteningly home-run prone and is another TJ surgery survivor.
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Yes to Smyly. And Rosenthal.
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Agree on Rosenthal.
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Wherever Kershaw signs, if I’m giving +$40M/yr to someone next winter, it’s not the 30 yr old pitcher with back problems.
I'd give him 40 million a year for 4 years. He is a stud. He should change his name to Kersheartaw.
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Bad feeling that last year was a career year and a fluke.
Think "career year" is probably true. However, the year was so good that he could drop off from that, and still be a very good value.
The weird thing last year was that his walk rate was good, less than half his career rate. So, could be fluke. Or, could be not that flukey, the result of pitching 1-inning stints and challenging with a ton of fastballs, rather than mixing in lots of 3rd pitches?
I mentioned this a few days back, but I do think the T1 diabetes could be a bit of a factor. (Even if rare/minimal). A lot easier to manage your blood sugar for one inning of work, versus 6 innings. Plus he's had it longer now and knows how to handle it better. So perhaps some of the mediocre results earlier in career was teensily influenced by the diabetes?
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Smyly is frighteningly home-run prone ....
Yeah, not sure I'm very enthused to add a guy to the rotation who, over the last two years of only 242 innings, has given up 43 HR's. Wow. That's literally as bad or worse than John Lackey in terms of HR-factorizing. Smyly's a very large step less desirable than Cobb, that's for sure.
My interest in Smyly would be more in term of a 6th starter/swing-man/relief guy than as an intended starter. Given how much better so many guys are in relief, that would be an interesting role for him.
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Hope Sherman is wrong on Jed being done if we get Cobb.
We still need another reliever unless you're happy with Montgomery, Wilson, Grimm, Strop, Maples, Edwards, Morrow.
Yeah, absolutely need more relief help. If all you do is replace Davis with Morrow, that doesn't do anything to help improve the problem in getting to Davis.
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Need a bare minimum of two "major" reliever acquisitions. Three would be better.
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I really like the Morrow signing. He looks dominant enough, I'd like to see them sign Reed to close and put him in the Miller role. Having a guy like that can really help swing a win loss record or playoff odds more than simple war would indicate. Dominate bp guys are really undervalued to me.
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I think our terminology is incorrect again. I don't think our FO is looking at Cobb and Chatwood as #4 #5 pitchers. They're gatering a flock of 2's and 3's
I agree. If they both are injured again, then neither will be a #4 or #5. But if either or both stay healthy, they will be much better than most team's #4 pitcher. Perhaps Chatwood needs to not only stay healthy, but also improve his command and control, but Cobb, barring health problems, is already shown that he is capable of being a #2/3 with his current abilities.
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Would be interested to see data on pitcher's command after leaving Coors field. I would imagine that act alone could improve command.
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Morrow 2 years, $21 million. The option is vesting for $12 million with a $3 million buy out. He’ll get $9 million/year.
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Ken RosenthalVerified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
Brandon Morrow’s deal with #Cubs, if completed, will be two years, $21M, sources tell The Athletic. Morrow would earn $9M in 2018 and $9M in ‘19 with a $3M buyout or $12M vesting option for 2020.
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Payroll update.
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Thanks, Jeff. That is really helpful. Very helpful.
Questions:
1. On the bottom, you have $181,757,143 (sum of the lux tax fixures), plus also $197,000,000 and $15,242,857 listed. The latter two are cut-and-paste leftovers not meant to be there, correct?
2. I wonder whether, instead of two relief spots to fill, whether they won't want to add at least 3 more? (Whether that means bumping the budget, or splitting an allotment into two smaller ones...)
3. Is Grimm's contract such that if you cut him in camp, you don't have to actually pay the full $2.4, and how much you do pay depends on how early you cut him? (I know reb has a good memory for those details, so I hope you either come back, reb, or else that somebody else remembers!) Or are they really effectively committed to $2.4 for Grimm?
4. Does Dario Alvarez have options? Maybe they're going to figure they're OK with leaving one bullpen open spot, with Grimm as $2.4 place-holder, but then with Maples, maybe a Rule 5, and whatever non-roster guys or Alvarez types they've got competing?
5. Maybe Hickey or Benedict think they see something fixable, so they want to at least give Grimm a camp shot? Without assuming that he'll make it, particularly if camp injuries don't open up spot(s)?
6. Overall I'm just thinking that it might be good to pick up another one or two comeback guys on $2M-ish deals, or somebodies like Duensing last year. To compete with Grimm for last spot. I don't want to assume Grimm on the staff, and then be an injury or two (starter or reliever) from having 3 pen guys comparable or worse than Grimm?
7. Or else just get a pretty solid/decent 13th guy at a contract that pays accordingly (≥$3.5), with Grimm outside the bubble barring injuries.
8. I also wonder if they might not want a failed rotation guy for relief, an option to Montgomery as long-man/swing-man insurance? A fill-in starter, or if you wanted to do some 6-man rotation for a while; or a guy who wasn't that good in rotation but might emerge as quite effective when used in relief? Not sure how bad a guy would need to be to settle for a role like that at a price that's cheap enough, though. (For example, I kinda doubt a guy like Smyly would need to settle for a $7.5/2 relief/swing contract.)
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Craig, the $197 is the 2018 luxury tax threshold and the delta is how far we are from that.
Alvarez has options. Butler and Grimm are the only bubble guys that don't. Well, La Stella doesn't either, but I'm considering him a roster lock.
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Craig:
http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/non-guaranteed-contract
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That's a really encouraging snapshot of things, projecting $15M below lux tax even with sizeable signings for the last SP and RP spots. I mean, if the Cubs were so inclined, they could even go out and get someone like Darvish and still come in under the cap for this year.
And how 'bout those Rizzo and Q deals? Basically $6M and $4M respectively for lux tax purposes? Wow wow wow.
Lastly, are the benefits/burdens for sure a part of the taxable amount? Is that just a general estimate at $15M, or is that a standard charge assumed by all teams in lux tax calcs?
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Craig, here's the best reference for who has options and who doesn't:
http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster
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Craig, the B&B are definitely part of the luxury tax calc. Cot's uses a $13 million allowance. I bumped it to $15.
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Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs
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Craig, the $197 is the 2018 luxury tax threshold and the delta is how far we are from that.
Alvarez has options. Butler and Grimm are the only bubble guys that don't. Well, La Stella doesn't either, but I'm considering him a roster lock.
Ah, excellent, Jeff, your command of all of the details is fabulous.
1. So, Grimm is not guaranteed, and can easily be cut in camp at neglible extent.
2. Yeah, that's a pretty reasonable margin below lux tax. You want to have some, so you can pick up a Verlander or Chapman in July. But no risk of picking up $15M in remaining salary.
3. Thanks for including the B&B, with the extra cushion.
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Good contract for Morrow. Though of course swapping Morrow for Davis does nothing in itself to strengthen the pen - you need at least one more frontline reliever, preferably two.
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Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber?
JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...
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What was Butler's injury?
I know he didn't miss bats, he was wild and inconsistent, and nobody missed him much when he got sent out. But he did actually have the best rotation ERA on the staff at the time they sent him out.
I kinda wonder whether he might not be an anti-awful candidate to be a relief guy, and maybe compete with Grimm for a last spot? (With potential to get stretched out and make a few fill-in starts if needed again). Obviously in relief tend to want K-guys, so that's not him.
But I wonder if he might do OK? Be a little faster; control a little better throwing just 2 pitches; control a little better throwing every other day instead of sitting for days between starts? Maybe Hickey or Benedict will have some little tweak to improve his breaking ball just a bit? Maybe even an unimproved breaking ball plays a little better when fastball is coming 95-97 instead of 91-93 and is being thrown with higher frequency? Heh heh, not expecting, but sometimes when a season turns out great, some unexpectedly effective guys emerge.
Just kinda thinking that **IF** the Cubs were to sign Cobb, it might be best to assume Chatwood and Cobb as 5-inning guys, and view anything beyond as frosting. If Butler was to emerge as an anti-awful pitch-to-contact faster-fastball guy who could pick up the 6th, or perhaps get used as a 2-inning bridge, that might be advantageous, and protect the late-inning guys.
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Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber?
JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...
I wouldn't be high on a deal, but I think it's worth at least talking about if you're the Cubs. JBJ will play next season at 28 years old, so he is what he is at this point--a great defensive outfielder with inconsistent (but league average or a little above) offense. If you think 2017 Schwarber is what he's going to be, then I think it's a pretty good trade for the Cubs. But if you think Schwarber will be break out, I don't think you make the deal (if only because someone will overpay next offseason if he has a big offensive year).
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Thoughts on a deal around Bradley/Schwarber? JBJ doesn’t do a lot for me, personally...
Not sure I'd be very excited. Bradley seems almost "too Cub"; yet another high-K low-average hot-and-cold hitter. Who's probably eaten alive by post-season-caliber pitchers.
His splits aren't that sharp either. So doesn't look like platoon with Almora would result in a monster combo, or anything.
I think the Cubs offense is a worry, so I'd probably rather roll the dice on Schwarber and hope he can make enough adjustments/improvements to turn into a pretty valuable platoon bat.
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I wouldn't make that deal, personally. Bradley probably is a better hitter than he was last season, but Schwarber has a chance to be an elite offensive player.
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When I hear the name Bradley, I can't help but think of Milton.
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Agreed...
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Cubs likely have a league average offensive, superior defensive CF in Almora, who is four years younger than JBJ.
Don't get me wrong, I think JBJ is better than Almora, but with a multitude of options in the OF (Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Heyward, Zobrist; even Baez, Contreras, and Bryant) I don't know that it makes sense to swap out one OF (Schwarber) for another (JBJ) who seemingly replicates the qualities of a third (Almora).
If the front office lacks confidence in Almora, then the trade might make sense, but I think they very much want to give Almora (and Schwarber) a real shot this year.
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I think Almora is likely to show significant progress offensively this season. That would make him too valuable to deal for any realistic return.
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Given what Theo and company think of Schwarber, and his near .900 OPS in the second half, I don't see them trading him unless they could somehow convince another team to consider Schwarb the centerpiece for a high-end starter, which also isn't going to happen.
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I really want to see what Schwarber is going to do this year. I think this year will define what he is. Was last year a fluke? Or indicative of what we expect going forward?
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I don't know if it was a fluke, but it won't be typical of what he'll become. He was basically a rookie coming off a yearlong knee injury. In hindsight it was pretty much predictable.
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Just for the sake of argument... Any interest at all in Matt Harvey, if the Mets were basically giving him away?
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If he'd pitch out of the pen, yes. If he wants a guaranteed spot in the rotation, no.
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If Im trading Schwarber it's gonna be for a pitcher with as much potential as he has.
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Boston might be willing to get rid of Wright. ;D
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Cubs likely have a league average offensive, superior defensive CF in Almora, who is four years younger than JBJ.
Don't get me wrong, I think JBJ is better than Almora, but with a multitude of options in the OF (Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Heyward, Zobrist; even Baez, Contreras, and Bryant) I don't know that it makes sense to swap out one OF (Schwarber) for another (JBJ) who seemingly replicates the qualities of a third (Almora).
If the front office lacks confidence in Almora, then the trade might make sense, but I think they very much want to give Almora (and Schwarber) a real shot this year.
I think Tico pretty well nails it. Personally, I don't think that Bradley is much better than Almora will be, if at all. But certainly he is not so much better that I would trade Schwarber to get him. Like several posted later, if they trade Schwarber, it should be for a pitcher, and they are not likely at this point to get a pitcher who would be a difference maker.
If the Cubs can get Cobb, or someone similar, they are pretty much set for next season, unless they decide to really go strong for a closer such as Davis, and it doesn't look as if they are going in that direction.
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How does replacing Davis with Morrow make us set for next season?
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I think that either Edwards or Morrow are likely able to fill the closer role, and ( I see I skipped it in my post) I think that the rest of the pen can be filled in with free agent set-up types, such as Duensing. With Chatworth and Cobb, and Montgomery concentrating on relief, there should be much less of a strain on the bull pen, and I don't expect it to be the black hole it became last October.
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We need at least one more good reliever and one more starting pitcher.
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How does replacing Davis with Morrow make us set for next season?
We need to add at least a couple more relievers who will end up being effective.
Obviously spending does not ensure effectiveness.
And obviously low-salary guys sometimes emerge as good and effective.
HOpefully combo of some scouting and good luck and smart FA signings will end up with a good pen.
But replacing Davis with Morrow, that alone doesn't improve the bad pen we ended with.
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Given ....his near .900 OPS in the second half, I don't see them trading him ....
Tango's "Marcel the Monkey" projects to .806. I expect something above Marcel but below 2nd-half .894. I'm guessing maybe .830-type guy?
Im guessing the amazing HR/contact rate he had 2nd half isn't sustainable and will drop. He was more than double the HR/contact of any of Bryant, Rizzo, or Baez; higher than Stanton; almost Judge; and short of Bonds 73-HR season but much closer to that than to Bryant or Rizzo.
HR/contact rate:
2017 Baez: 7.1%
2017 Bryant: 6.8%
2017 Rizzo: 6.6%
2nd-half Schwarber: 14.9%
Stanton 2017: 13.6%
Judge: 15.6%.
Historic juiced-ball-juiced-body 73-HR-season Bonds: 19.0%
So, I think we should be a little cautious in assuming the .894 2nd-half is what we should expect as normal. Without a 15% HR/contact rate, he'd need other aspects of his offense to go up, in order to stay near the .894 2nd-half number he posted.
His 2nd-half K-rate jumped a lot, compared to first half, and his walk-rate dropped.
So kind of looks like he just got more aggressive and sold out for the HR, and it paid off.
Will be interesting if he tries, and is able, to make any adjustments to hit the ball more often. Or if maybe he and management will figure it's best to just sell out on the HR, and that's just who he is and what he's going to be.
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I would guess around .250/330/520/850 for Schwarber next season.
Two more relievers for sure, and yes - more money doesn't automatically mean more effectiveness, but the Cubs have tried the "cheap and hope" approach for the last few years, and apart from Duensing largely failed. McGee and Reed would be a nice pair to add to Morrow.
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Will be interesting if he tries, and is able, to make any adjustments to hit the ball more often. Or if maybe he and management will figure it's best to just sell out on the HR, and that's just who he is and what he's going to be.
Theo has made it crystal clear that the Cubs want and expect Schwarber to go back to/become a more pure hitter who makes more consistent contact, one who does not "just sell out on the HR." He's made this point several times since the end of the season and has said that Schwarber is in agreement.
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They have to add at least one more in the Reed/McGee/Shaw class. On Twitter today, I've seen them connected to Reed and Kintzler. If it's down to those two, Reed is far and away the better buy. I think Reed is a perfect fit now, actually. He'd compliment Morrow perfectly because the things you worry about with Morrow--specifically, durability and command--are the things that Reed excels at.
If they got Reed, it would be nice if they could also add McGee too. But I think at that point they could wait out the market and target someone who falls through the cracks and doesn't sign until mid-January.
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If they are only going to add 1 late inning guy I'd really prefer McGee to Reed. Montgomery is going to be the swing guy which would leave Wilson as the only lefty in pen. Detroit Wilson that would be ok, but Cub Wilson that can't throw a strike scares me.
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Surely Jed realizes we still need a couple bullpen arms.
This man has proven to not be stupid.
If it is only one more it means they think the world of Edwards and Maples.
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Theo has made it crystal clear that the Cubs want and expect Schwarber to go back to/become a more pure hitter who makes more consistent contact, one who does not "just sell out on the HR." He's made this point several times since the end of the season and has said that Schwarber is in agreement.
Thanks, Ron. Hadn't seen those, so sounds really interesting. I hope it works. I wonder what that might mean in terms of adjustments or approach?
Schwarber was a high-K guy in minors as well as in majors. So he may be able to shift some things around, but with some variation he's been kinda the similar general profile hitter since he turned pro. Will be curious to see how much he can redefine himself as a hitter?
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I suppose when Theo says pursuing Stanton didn't make sense because of "some future plans", it does get you thinking a bit.
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Schwarber wasn’t a high K guy in the minors. He was 17.7-20.2% in most of his minor league PA, with a 11.5-17.3% BB%. The only time he was above 25% was in AAA and that is barely 100 PA.
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I wonder if Cub fans expecting Bryce Harper are like UT fans expecting Jon Gruden?
I have a baseball Bryce threw to me in the bleachers at Wrigley back in our shitty days.
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I'm not sure I want Bryce Harper.
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Me either.
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I'm sure I do. At what he ultimately costs? Who knows.
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Andy MartinoVerified account
@martinonyc
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Cubs have shown some interest in Matt Harvey. As with O's and Rangers, unclear how serious as of yet.
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Of course I like Bryce the player.
Im just not gonna like that contract.
I may be more inclined to get 3-5 good players instead of one.
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Im game to give Harvey a chance if it comes cheap.
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Maybe Hickey or Benedict will have some little tweak to improve his breaking ball just a bit? Maybe even an unimproved breaking ball plays a little better when fastball is coming 95-97 instead of 91-93 and is being thrown with higher frequency? Heh heh, not expecting, but sometimes when a season turns out great, some unexpectedly effective guys emerge.
Do you really want to sign multi-million dollar contracts based on maybe's which don't even seem to have any particular logic of reason behind their likelihood?
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Harper isn't just the clear second-best player in baseball (and he'd be the best in most eras, when there isn't a once-in-a-generation talent eclipsing him) - he'll be the youngest FA of his caliber ever. It's hard to put a true estimate on how much would be fair value for him, but it's an awful lot. If he truly is intrigued by the idea of playing for the Cubs (and who knows if he really is) I don't know how you can't be extremely interested.
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I don't think there is anyone that wouldn't want Harper on the Cubs. The question is, would he become a Cub at a price that we are willing and able to afford.
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With the new TV deal coming online and the improvements to Wrigley wrapping up along with the increased revenue streams, it's time the Cubs put on their big boy pants and act like a big market team at some point. Yes, that will probably mean paying the luxury tax, but they can and will easily be able to afford it.
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Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Sources: The San Diego Padres continue to be one of the more active teams at the Winter Meetings. There's traction to their talks with Eric Hosmer, and they're seeking a young, under-control shortstop. One match to keep an eye on: The Chicago Cubs.
What possible match would the Padres have with the Cubs for Baez or Russell? Seems like it would have to be a three way trade.
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With the new TV deal coming online and the improvements to Wrigley wrapping up along with the increased revenue streams, it's time the Cubs put on their big boy pants and act like a big market team at some point. Yes, that will probably mean paying the luxury tax, but they can and will easily be able to afford it.
There's spending like a big market team, and then there's just spending irresponsibly. How high are you willing to go? The contract is going to be, at minimum, 10 years, $400 million...and that's if only one team is seriously in the market. Are you willing to pay him $45 million a year? $50 million a year? At some point, the cost is too much even for Harper.
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Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Sources: The San Diego Padres continue to be one of the more active teams at the Winter Meetings. There's traction to their talks with Eric Hosmer, and they're seeking a young, under-control shortstop. One match to keep an eye on: The Chicago Cubs.
What possible match would the Padres have with the Cubs for Baez or Russell? Seems like it would have to be a three way trade.
I can't see Hand being enough, but maybe a three team trade for Archer.
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There's spending like a big market team, and then there's just spending irresponsibly. How high are you willing to go? The contract is going to be, at minimum, 10 years, $400 million...and that's if only one team is seriously in the market. Are you willing to pay him $45 million a year? $50 million a year? At some point, the cost is too much even for Harper.
In a year where he only played 111 games, Harper was worth 5 wins last year. At market rate that's $45M in value. He's one of two players in the game capable of putting up a 10 win season. He'll be 26 when he's a free agent. Yes I would pay him $40M (but that deal likely extends beyond 10 years). Yes I would pay him $45M. If it had to go as high as $50M that would begin to limit the number of years I'd be willing to offer. I'd potentially be willing to go higher than $50 if Harper wanted to hit the market again in his early 30's.
Harper is basically left-handed Frank Robinson. I'm all in.
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http://www.nbcsports.com/...de-davis-maddon-mlb-trade (http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-plan-keep-stockpiling-pitching-even-2018-staff-comes-focus-theo-morrow-wade-davis-maddon-mlb-trade)
"We'd love to add another starter one way or another if we could and at least one more reliever."
Obvious enough. If anything, only surprise is reference to "one" versus mentioning "two" relievers.
"Our greatest threats right now relate to pitching and not having enough quality pitching, suffering multiple injuries to pitching, not having enough depth."
"the Cubs still figure to be involved in what Epstein calls a very deep reliever class. " Andracki
[/size]That would seem to be an opportunity to add more than one more capable guy, of course.
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Okay, this is a stretch, but if they are thinking of re-signing Duensing or Rondon, that would not be adding a new reliever right? Semantically?
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Every winter Theo and Hoyer talk about pitching contingency planning, wanting depth, being prepared, etc..
The trick is you can only dedicate so many roster spots to pitchers. So you want contingency/flex in-roster; and you want some off-roster help at Iowa.
At present, MM is the only pen/rotation swing guy. Adding another could be helpful.
Flex in the pen, in case a main guy gets hurt or a guy expected to be a main guy goes haywire, that just depends on having depth of guys who are quality or at least anti-awful. Nowhere is "status" more fluid than in pen; we know a guy with a good arm who starts near the back of then pen pitching only in losses or in the 6th inning, can sometimes pitch well and end up getting used extensively in the 7th and 8th to protect leads. Got some work to do there, obviously.
Off-roster, I guess Tseng, perhaps Mills, Zastryzny, or Maples are options guys. (Maybe Maples will be good, others are probably hoping for anti-awful.) Maybe Alvarez? But they haven't had much luck in past with their Florio and Frankoff "depth-with-options" pickups.
Otherwise will try to get veteran(s) for Iowa, but obviously vets who aren't good enough to get big-league contracts are limited. I'm more interested in injury-rehab take-a-shot guys than proven 4A guys, but long odds regardless.
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"Joe Maddon is a huge proponent of rest and the Cubs have no interest in running relievers — closers or not — into the ground by having them throw more than three outs on a consistent basis." Andracki
Not sure I actually agree. Might it not be LESS stressful on a reliever to pitch two full innings every three-four days, each one starting as a clean inning with warmups, rather than pitching single or partial innings more frequently, often amid high-stress "dirty" innings?
For example, 40-45 two-inning outings ending up with 80-90 innings.
*Versus Strop pitching 60 innings over 69 appearances?
*Edwards 66 innings over 73 games?
Might not the 69-73-appearances guys be more worn out come October than the 40-45 appearance guy, even if the latter did end up with 20-30 more innings? I dunno, maybe not.
I'm just kinda thinking that as we realize that starters often decline by 3rd time through lineup, and that all of the starters arms are already tired by the all-star game and need some extra rest their, Lester especially, we almost want to ask the relievers to pick up even more innings, not less. But how can they possibly pick up more innings, if MM is the only reliever who averages more than 1-inning per appearance?
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I wonder if somebody like Underwood or Butler could be an effective 2 inning reliever?
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I wonder if somebody like Underwood or Butler could be an effective 2 inning reliever?
Yeah, could see Butler settling into a role like that.
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I think Eddie Butler has potential.
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Yeah, could see Butler settling into a role like that.
I can't see Butler being consistently effective in any role, to be honest.
The Cubs have tried to do the bullpen on the cheap the last three years, and ended up having to bankrupt the farm system to try and fix it mid-season or offseason. They won a WS in spite of their pen two years ago, lost because of it last year. Pick your poison, but I would argue it's time for a more proactive approach.
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You do realize you can go into spring training with more relievers than spots. It isn't an either or thing. The Cubs can go out and sign multiple relievers and still take a shot with Butler, Alvarez, Underwood. If Butler doesn't work he gets released. Other guys have options and can get sent down. In fact not trying to find some relievers on the cheap would be about the absolute dumbest thing the Cubs could do.
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Brandon Morrow
Carl Edwards Jr.
Pedro Strop
Mike Montgomery
Justin Wilson
5 spots seem determined.
Three to go.
Theo/Hoyer will do what they want to do, of course. But I think at least two of those three should be addressed with non-cheap solutions. Better than take-a-shots. Maybe all three, to varying degree.
I'd be pretty disappointed if not just one but TWO are left open for take-a-shots, or for "competition" between Grimm/Butler/Underwood/Alvarez/Maples/Rule 5.
With 13 pitchers to start, we know injuries will come. So I'd almost like to build a roster with Maples (and Alvarez, if he has any talent) available as Iowa yo-yos, even in the unlikely event that they do actually look excellent in camp.
If they leave one spot for competition/take-a-shots, that's one thing. But not two.
If Grimm and Butler, a Rule 5, some non-rosters, and some rehab guys have one spot to fight for, I'm comfortable with that.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 14m14 minutes ago
Saw Schwarber briefly in the lobby. Looks as lean as in photos. Says he hasn’t weighed himself but would estimate he’s dropped around 25 pounds.
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I was sure the Winter Meetings were going to be exciting after the Ohtani and Stanton situations resolved last week. But we're at the end of day 2, and the most significant deals of the meetings is Pat Neshek to the Phillies and Chase Headley traded to the Padres.
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Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
Cubs GM Jed Hoyer thinks they'll add at least one more pitcher before the end of the winter meetings.
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https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%23940713021411864576
Carrie MuskatVerified account
#Cubs waiting for word on Morrow physical. Hoyer says he anticipates another move before they leave Orlando
Expects rush of players to find teams before Xmas
Hoyer: "It's Dec. 12. Players don't love being free agents after Christmas and everyone knows that."
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Snoozerville winter meetings so far.
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Ken RosenthalVerified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
2m2 minutes ago
More
#Cubs LHP Mike Montgomery would like chance to start or go to place where he can, sources close to the pitcher tell The Athletic. Has communicated desire to start to #Cubs, but not desire to go elsewhere if opportunity is not available, sources say. Role in ‘18 presently unclear.
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If Reed can be had on a three year deal instead of four, cough up the dough and get it done.
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I hadn't really thought about Montgomery as a trade chip, but I guess he could be a pretty good one. Still four years until free agency...if it doesn't look like there is going to be a spot for him in the rotation long term and he's not going to be okay with that, maybe now is the time to cash him in on the trade market.
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Smyly is in. Sorry if posted
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Where'd you see that, Bubba?
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2 year deal
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Well my boy had told me to expect it. Cubs Twitter confirms
https://twitter.com/cubs/status/940762650966941699
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Cubs just tweeted it.
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Jesse Rogers shares a cryptic quote from Hoyer:
Cubs GM Jed Hoyer says new ideas have popped up recently as some teams have changed directions. He wouldn't get into specifics: "There's some things that have changed with teams since we were here (GM Meetings) last time. Circumstances have changed or ideas have changed...There are teams shifting what they want to do."
So what has changed in the last month? AL East teams outside the Red Sox and Yankees seem to be more willing to deal...but pursing Archer or Stroman wouldn't seem to be a real change for the Cubs--they've probably been asking about them the entire offseason. Marlins more willing to completely tear down? It seems like they were focused on only trading Stanton, Gordon, and dead weight a month ago; now, Ozuna and Yelich seem to be more in play. IMO, Yelich's combination of ability and contract should change any team's focus if he becomes available. Have there been any other potential shifts?
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Smyly for two years is a nice deal.
Morrow is also official now.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21751911/tyler-chatwood-chicago-cubs-contract-be-reworked-due-cy-young-escalator
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Duffy? Royals committing to a full rebuild?
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I knew someone here called Smyly.
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One rumor is Ozuna to the Cards for 2 of Flaherty/Hudson/Alacantra and 1 of Piscotty or Grichik.
Maybe the Orioles are open to trading Gausman?
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Gausman sucks. No offense to him personally. Sign a couple of relievers.
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Smyly 2 year $10 million + $7 million in incentives according to Rosenthal.
Gausman sucks with the Orioles, which doesn’t mean much.
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Love the Smyly deal. Now sign Rosenthal.
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Smyly has been good his whole career until last year.
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Smyly won't be much of a factor for most of 2018, but could be in the bullpen towards the end of the season. Smyly was excellent in relief with the Tigers in 2013.
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Is Smyly injured?
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TJS in July. Also a history of shoulder issues.
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Got it. So mostly paying to rehab him for 2019.
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Smyly deal is $3 million guaranteed in year one, $7 million in year two. Up to $6 million more in incentives in 2019 if he's a starter, $1 million if he's a reliever. Potential for $16 million total.
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For luxury tax purposes it is $5 million AAV. I’m not sure how the incentives are figured in.
Rehab from TJS can be anywhere from 12-18 months, so it isn’t impossible for Smyly to pitch next year.
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When Hoyer said he thought they'd have another deal before leaving, I had assumed it would be something of more immediate significance than a Buildican 2019 take-a-shot.
Maybe this isn't what he meant, and he's got another one coming this week.
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Very disappointing if they are punting the bullpen in favor of an injured HR factory.
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I dont see any way they're even considering "punting the bullpen".
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I hadn't even realized that our closer was 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA this year, in Triple-A.
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Anyone know if Smyly and Keuchel have any connection/friendship still from days at Arkansas?
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It appears they are. Smyly gonna recruit Keuchel next year?
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Smyly 2 year $10 million + $7 million in incentives according to Rosenthal.
Gausman sucks with the Orioles, which doesn’t mean much.
I love contracts that are very heavy on incentives. It is hard for a team to go wrong with them, and players with considerable upside can still sign and perform with the confidence they will be paid well for doing better than expected.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-indians-have-discussed-potential-danny-salazar-trade.html
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From ESPN Winter Meetings:
It was a little bit of a throwaway line but this quote from Theo Epstein underscores what the team still thinks of Kyle Schwarber and/or his trade value: "He's always been someone teams have had interest in, I guess, but we probably have the most interest."
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I can totally see the appeal of Salazar from the Cubs' POV. Obvious risk factor there, but when the guy is on he has "Game 1 starter" stuff, which they desperately need in this rotation. Maybe a guy who would benefit from a 6-man rotation.
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I think the 6 man rotation was only happening if they got Ohtani.
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How soon can you trade your draft picks under the new CBA? Theo can trade all of last year's picks right now, right?
Maybe he figures he can just package his 2016 and 2017 draft classes for a July relief rental?
But the 2018 class, does he need to wait until winter or until 2019? Or can he start adding them into deals for relief rentals this summer, as soon as he signs them?
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I think the 6 man rotation was only happening if they got Ohtani.
There were reports the Cubs had been toying with the idea generally speaking. Who knows if that's true.
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How soon can you trade your draft picks under the new CBA? Theo can trade all of last year's picks right now, right?
Maybe he figures he can just package his 2016 and 2017 draft classes for a July relief rental?
But the 2018 class, does he need to wait until winter or until 2019? Or can he start adding them into deals for relief rentals this summer, as soon as he signs them?
Not till after the WS.
Salazar as far as I can tell has thrown 150 IP in 2 seasons in his career and in the Indians last 2 playoff appearances he was thrown 4.2 innings in relief. Great stuff or not the injury risk is a huge negative.
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That's why the trade cost may be just manageable. Or not, but it's worth at least considering.
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Bruce Levine thinks Wade Davis is going to have to settle for a 3 year (or maybe even 2 year + option) deal. At that contract length, the Cubs should probably be interested.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/13/levine-on-the-score-i-would-encourage-people-to-keep-their-eyes-on-davis-and-the-cubs/
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We've lost Davis,Duensing,and Rondon from a weak bullpen and replaced him but Morrow.
We better be interested.
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@BleacherNation
I'm seeing enough in the reports, and hearing enough on my end, to say that the Cubs are sincere in their inquiries about starting pitching trades. It's interesting, given Cobb's continued presence on the free agent market.
There are tons of plausible explanations (Cobb demand still deemed too high; Cubs not actually serious on Cobb; Cubs prefer trade targets; Cubs want six quality starters; etc.), and I can't tell you which one(s) are correct. I just believe the trade stuff is no pure smoke screen.
Davis getting a 2-3 year deal doesn't seem to fit with this reliever market. If it is then the Cubs should lock him up ASAP.
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No more than 2 years for Davis. He's pretty clearly on the decline.
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Starting to sound like this Montgomery thing could get a bit ugly.
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Starting to sound like this Montgomery thing could get a bit ugly.
https://twitter.com/MDGonzales/status/941072943995551744
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Getting very worried about the bullpen. We needed volume of good relievers and the options are mostly off the board.
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There were reports the Cubs had been toying with the idea generally speaking. Who knows if that's true.
It seems pretty clear that the Cubs think that keeping their starting pitchers fresh for the postseason is important. This past year, the top starters pitched very little in spring training. That may have helped their performance in October, but we all saw the decreased velocity and effectiveness in the first half. Impossible to say for sure that there's a direct cause-and-effect relationship there, but it seems to make sense.
I wonder if they'll experiment with some sort of modified six-man rotation this season. Prepare via spring training in the traditional way so they're ready to hit the ground running at full strength. But maybe fold in a sixth starter every other time through the rotation. Something like that.
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Getting very worried about the bullpen. We needed volume of good relievers and the options are mostly off the board.
Agreed. I can just hear Theo expressing his frustration at the market cost of relief pitching.
Bite the bullet and sign both Reed and Davis.
Davis-Morrow-Reed-Edwards-Strop-Wilson-Montgomery-eighth guy
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If you get Davis back I’d much rather get a lefty.
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Get the better pitcher, period.
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Get the better pitcher, period.
yes, yes, yes.
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Get the better pitcher, period.
It is more complicated than that. Adding Davis, Marrow and Reed is some serious $$$ and years. While WAR is far from perfect when dealing with relievers Reed outside of 2016 has been worth 1 WAR/year and has been kinda blah outside of his time with Mets. Duensing was signed for $2 million and almost produced the same WAR. So figuring out who is the best reliever is hard and then when taking into account $ it is really hard.
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I would argue that, in the bullpen, it's not necessarily about WAR. It's about the profile of the specific pitcher - is this a guy you're going to be willing to pitch in the playoffs? If you have an eight man bullpen and five of them are guys that you're not going to pitch in a postseason unless the game is an out of hand loss, you're sunk.
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Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Theo on possible moves before end of meetings Thursday: “leaning more like no, but there’s a chance” it can change with one phone call.
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I also read that Cleveland wants a LH bat for Danny Salazar.
Ill assume all of us would trade Happ for him but if it took Schwarber would you?
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I would argue that, in the bullpen, it's not necessarily about WAR. It's about the profile of the specific pitcher - is this a guy you're going to be willing to pitch in the playoffs? If you have an eight man bullpen and five of them are guys that you're not going to pitch in a postseason unless the game is an out of hand loss, you're sunk.
If you had asked me when the Cubs acquired Justin Wilson he'd profile well in the playoffs. I'm not sure that works.
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His profile plays in the playoffs. He was just messed up. Maybe he always will be, but that's irrelevant to the decision making process.
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Ignoring the volatility in relievers leads to bad contracts.
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Agreed, but a track record is a track record. Reed and Davis both have them.
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10.1 IP, 8 R, 7 ER for Reed in playoffs.
Don’t get me wrong Davis, Marrow and Reed would make me happy. I’d just rather spend less and fortify the lefties in the pen because Montgomery and Wilson scare me for different reasons. I say that as someone that is fine with Edwards facing Harper.
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Cubs signing Chisek.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-to-sign-steve-cishek.html
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One more, Theo.
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Is Duensing asking for too much money or did he flirt with a FO wife or what?
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35.
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So a 0ne year or two year contract should be fairly safe.
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
Steve Cishek’s deal with the #Cubs, as reported by @Ken_Rosenthal, is for two years in the $12-14 million range. Pending physical.
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Cishek could be a great pickup when paired with a strong Cub infield defense.
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Are there any worthwhile relievers we could rescue from the Miami dumpster fire?
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnickSteve Cishek’s deal with the #Cubs, as reported by @Ken_Rosenthal, is for two years in the $12-14 million range. Pending physical.
That seems very modest.
Is this JR's friend and fellow alum, or am I getting mixed up?
He's got ~.130 R/L split.
Not sure what that will mean. I'm guessing Maddon will want to profile him as a ROOGY, and will probably be yanking him whenever a lefty comes up with a man on base or the game is close?
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His OPS against vs. LH hitters was .663 last season. Don't know why he would be used as a ROOGY.
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Is this JR's friend and fellow alum, or am I getting mixed up?
Nah, the only connection I have with him was that he was on my fantasy team back when he was closing for the Marlins.
I'm not sure I'm wild about the pickup, but maybe he has another productive year or two in him.
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Cishek's velocity dip is troubling, but he's a strike-thrower so the mob demanding some of those should be pleased. It's not an exciting signing, but he should be an acceptable 6th-7th inning guy. We need one more impact arm down there for sure, though.
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The guy's only 31 years old. If he's healthy, he's likely to have a number of good years left.
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When’s the last time the Cubs had a submariner? Cishek drops pretty low.
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The guy's only 31 years old. If he's healthy, he's likely to have a number of good years left.
Yeah for some reason I thought he was older.
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He pitches like he's older.
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Davis, please.
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If they were to bring back Davis or bring in Reed and re-sign Duensing, that would be a pretty good looking bullpen on paper. Thank Grimm for his contributions and send him on his way.
Davis/Reed
Morrow
Edwards
Strop
Cishek
Duensing
Wilson
Montgomery
You could manage that if your last starter was a lower salary guy. Danny Salazar, your seat is ready.
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His OPS against vs. LH hitters was .663 last season. Don't know why he would be used as a ROOGY.
1. Maddon's history. Seems to me Maddon frequently replaces RH relievers mid-inning when lefty hitters are coming up. Strop's career vs LHP is .627, Rondon .659, both better versus lefties than Cishek's .663 last year. So Maddon might likely pull Cishek mid-innning when lefties come up even more than he's done in past with Strop and Rondon.
2. Don't you usually have lefty relievers with OPS vs. LH hitters well below .663? A lot of lefty relievers do considerably better than .663 versus lefties.
3. Qualitatively a low-slot guy maybe gets scouted as being tougher on same-side hitters? Perhaps arm-slot might tend to have managers past and future even less likely to let Cishek fight through LH hitters?
I've just been thinking about this for two reasons. Cubs just signed a short-innings starter in Chatwood; and I think the postseason highlights how pitchers pitching tired don't pitch as well. We've also seen a couple of seasons where, by all-star break, Lester especially is dead-armed, and guys have kind of benefitted from a break and some rest.
But, if you do even more to lighten the load and keep the innings and pitch-counts off on the rotation, how is that possible if you don't pick up extra innings with relief? But now for two years straight we've seen bullpen rotten in October, and some relievers pitching tired. Can you possible pass even more innings from rotation to relief, without just killing the pen?
Flip argument: Maybe the non-Davis, non-Chapman relievers weren't tired, they got plenty of rest. Maybe they were just bad because they were bad, wild because they're wild and the pressure got to them. So perhaps workload had nothing to do with it, and they could easily handle as many or more innings future.
From that view, nothing needs to change with the pen usage. Just have better guys pitching better.
But *if* Maddon thinks the pen was compromised by exhaustion late, then I would suggest that a way to have them cover as many innings (or more) with less exhaustion would be to reduce appearances by reducing mid-inning changes. [It's also a hypothesis that pitching full inning without coming into a dirty pressure inning might also be conducive to better control and throwing more strikes.]
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That's some good thinking, Jeff.
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Michael Cerami's take:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/14/getting-to-know-new-cubs-reliever-steve-cishek-a-sidearming-contact-specialist/
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And the new pitching coach adds another element that wasn't there last season
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Cishek with the Rays
9.49 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 1.09 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 3.37 xFIP
I believe I saw where he was recovering from hip surgery and that might have affected some of his numbers.
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I'm just really, really leery of committing a lot of money to Davis. He seems like an almost sure bet for a significant regression - and for most of last year he wasn't dominant, just effective enough to get by.
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I'm just really, really leery of committing a lot of money to Davis. He seems like an almost sure bet for a significant regression - and for most of last year he wasn't dominant, just effective enough to get by.
He was dominant in the past, but I agree that he was not really dominant last year. But perhaps that WAS his regression, and he will continue at that level for a couple of seasons. Not a bad situation.
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Yeah, I'm not a big fan of committing a ton to Davis either. But it sounds like the Cardinals are likely to get Colome and the Rockies might get Holland. At that point, there might not be anywhere left for Davis to get a big contract. At that point, maybe a 2 year + option deal could get him.
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Dont kid yourselves.
We need Davis back horribly.
If we can eat the Heyward contract and get nothing in return we can handle Davis's.
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Yeah, I'm not a big fan of committing a ton to Davis either. But it sounds like the Cardinals are likely to get Colome and the Rockies might get Holland. At that point, there might not be anywhere left for Davis to get a big contract. At that point, maybe a 2 year + option deal could get him.
Also not fan of committing a lot for long, and like deeg not confident in Davis's stuff. But may be that the market is going to make his price appropriate.
My perception of pre-Cub Davis was a guy with a very good, anti-HR fastball, which set up counts for his slider. My Cubs perception is a guy whose fastball was straight and whackable, such that he was afraid to throw it much for strikes. Leading to HR's, long counts, and guys sitting breaking ball and chasing less. Getting by on guts and savvy, but stuff no longer that good.
Still, he was effective, and a pen with Davis better than Grimm. I also wonder whether he might not be able to sustain or be a little better this year. Davis like all of the pen guys was such a nibbler with the fastball. Maybe Theo's idea of throwing more aggressively with the fastball could help all four of Davis, Strop, Edwards and Wilson (and Rondon too, had he come back).
Also think more regular work schedule might help him. Seemed he'd go forever without work, and get rusty; then get overworked for a spell. But never a good consistency groove. Perhaps using somebody else to close at times would be find, to protect against over-use; but using in non-save spots might also be good, to avoid under-use rust.
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I haven't been very in the rumor-mill loop. But has there been any rumors about what Darvish is doing, and who's pursuing him?
Is there any chance that for whatever confluence of scouting and budget reasons, that nobody is going very hard after Darvish? And that he might end up being available for a contract that wouldn't be undesirable?
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Twins supposedly want Darvish.
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Thanks.
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Debate on one of those "yell at each other and get pissed" shows the other day about whether Darvish was hurt or just tipping pitches and that nobody was moving on him yet because they had doubts. FWIW
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https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/11/dodgers-yu-darvish-tipped-pitches-world-series-astros
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Maddon's history. Seems to me Maddon frequently replaces RH relievers mid-inning when lefty hitters are coming up.
Unless he views them as reverse-split guys. I think he goes by the numbers rather than knee-jerk lefty-righty decisions.
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Sure, we've seen that with Edwards, and with Koji.
The board was often much crabby about Edwards getting used as much as he was, given his wildness; it may be that his numbers versus lefties contributed to that? (If you put in Strop or Rondon, and know you're going to yank them the minute a lefty comes up, maybe use Edwards instead so you don't, and can save or rest lefties?)
As pertain to Cishek, though, his numbers versus lefties are worse than Strop or career Rondon. So unless Maddon decides to change how he manages, we can assume that Cishek will be as or more prone to getting lifted when a lefty comes up that has been true with Strop or Rondon.
Rondon's career numbers are better than Cishek, but they were kinda poor this last year. Worse overall, of course, but particularly so versus lefties. I wonder whether that factored in at all in the decision to non-tender him? Maybe Maddon just knew he was never going to trust Hector versus lefties, and he's hoping that this year he can be more trusting of Strop and Cishek as well as Edwards versus lefties?
Cubs lefties actually aren't that split-strong versus lefties. Wilson's numbers were obviously terrible versus everybody, but his 2017 numbers versus lefties were really bad. Duensing didn't have much split either, and his overall OPS versus lefties doesn't look any or much better than using Cishek versus lefties, certainly not as good as Strop or Edwards. Montgomery isn't much of a splits guy, either.
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Speaking of lefties and splits, any interest in Tony Watson? Obviously he'd cost more than Duensing, but he is a guy whose lefty splits are more significant, for better or for worse.
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I know the Theocracy has been holding its breath to see what I think of it, but I like the Chisek signing Nice addition. Decent contract level.
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I wonder what the Cubs are going to do about the backup catcher spot. Will they go with a veteran and let Caratini play every day at Iowa? Or will they go with Caratini and sign some veteran ham-n-egger to stash at Iowa?
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Victor Caratini can handle the job and do so with potential unlike most backup catchers.
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Patrick Corbin was mentioned in a few rumors during the meetings--the Yankees apparently were involved. I wonder if he could be a relatively cheap target if the Cubs can't sign Cobb and don't want to give up what it would take to get someone like Salazar or Duffy. He has only one year until free agency, so I don't know if the Diamondbacks could demand anyone off the major league roster.
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If we're down to talking about Corbin, let Mills/Butler/Tseng fill the fifth spot in the rotation and load up the bullpen. Sign both Davis and Reed.
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The Theocracy has done a nice job of plugging holes and setting things up so that they should only need to make another move or two to be in good shape. Wade Davis plus a starter?
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If we get Davis, do we need Reed?
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If we get Davis, do we need Reed?
If we're talking about spending money on Patrick F. Corbin, I'd rather spend that on Davis/Reed and use an internal rotation option.
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If Cobb really wants $20 million per as is being reported, that's a hard pass for me.
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Agreed.
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If we're talking about spending money on Patrick F. Corbin, I'd rather spend that on Davis/Reed and use an internal rotation option.
If we're down to talking about Corbin, let Mills/Butler/Tseng fill the fifth spot in the rotation and load up the bullpen. Sign both Davis and Reed.
Plus, if you can't get a worthwhile 5th starter and go internal, the internal guy just might end up being Montgomery. In which case the pen gets one man shorter. If you've already got a Grimm in the pen, now do you need to bring up this year's version of Dylan Florio or Seth Frankoff?
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If Cobb really wants $20 million per as is being reported, that's a hard pass for me.
What did you think he was going to ask for? They just gave a reliever with a short track record and lots of injury issues $11.5 per.
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Are there any worthwhile relievers we could rescue from the Miami dumpster fire?
I'd take Barraclough in a heartbeat
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Problem is, none of those relievers have big contracts so Jeter has no real incentive to deal them.
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Anybody with a last named pronounced Bear Claw has to be a bad ass.
You'd think he was a native American.
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Dusty,
Do you ever stop and consider that a post might be offensive to some before you make it?
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The thought that me playing around like that would offend someone never entered my mind.
I post and read other boards that are considered very tame and they say much worse than that.
Believe me when I say I know this is a tough crowd.
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Remember the old school Tim McGraw song "Indian Outlaw"?
In the song he mentions the indian name Bear Claw.
If Im a piece of **** he is too.
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Dusty,
Do you ever stop and consider that a post might be offensive to some before you make it?
??? A reference to a native american possibly being named after an animal is now offensive? That's like saying anyone with a last name starting with Mc might be Irish is offensive.
The snow is getting deep...
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Which reminds me of a joke.
Close your eyes Bennett...
The young Indian boy had spent most of his life in a quandry.
.. He felt different yet.
.. couldn't figure why.
.. he was just so depressed. He went to the Chief for answers.
.. He asked the chief how his brother Red Deer Running had gotten his name.
..
The chief answered in his typically poetic way.
.."When Red Deer Running was born, at the moment of his birth, the first thing his mother saw was a beautiful deer running off into the forest.
.. and so Running Deer was named. It is the custom of our tribe to name the offspring according to the spirits in nature visiting upon the birth."Then, the boy said to the Chief.
.. And how did my sister "Thundering Bird" get her name? The chief described again, how at the moment of her birth Thundering Bird's mother had heard a roar of thunder and looking up, saw a bird flying in the sky.
..
The boy asked again, how his cousin "White Crouching Bear" had been given such a name.
.. And the chief, looking down once more at the boy, explaining the traditions of their tribe.
..
. White Bear's mother had seen a rare white bear crouched over a stream at the moment her baby's birth. Then he asked the boy. "Why do you ask, Two Dogs Fvuking?"
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And so you don't think I have it out for Native Americans. There are jokes for everyone. If you can't laugh at yourself who can you laugh at...
Two men were sitting next to each other at a bar. After a while, one guy looks at the other and says, "I can't help but think, from listening to you, that you're from Ireland."
The other guy responds proudly, "Yes, that I am!"
The first guy says, "So am I! And where abouts from Ireland might you be?"
The other guy answers, "I'm from Dublin, I am."
The first guy responds, "Sure and begora, and so am I! And what street did you live on in Dublin?"
The other guy says, "A lovely little area it was, I lived on McCleary Street in the old central part of town."
The first guy says, "Faith & it's a small world, so did I! And to what school would you have been going?"
The other guy answers, "Well now, I went to St. Mary's of course."
The first guy gets really excited, and says, "And so did I. Tell me, what year did you graduate?"
The other guy answers, "Well, now, I graduated in 1964."
The first guy exclaims, "The Good Lord must be smiling down upon us! I can hardly believe our good luck at winding up in the same bar tonight. Can you believe it, I graduated from St. Mary's in 1964 my own self."
About this time, another guy walks into the bar, sits down, and orders a beer. The bartender walks over shaking his head & mutters, "It's going to be a long night tonight."
The guy asks, "Why do you say that?"
"The Murphy twins are drunk again."
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Boras and every agent/player is different, for sure, so case-by-case who knows. But I expect a lot of decisions/signings over the next week.
Hoyer mentioned something I've thought before, that FA's tend to like to have a decision before Christmas. There's been time to negotiate and think and enjoy the process, but at some point a guy is ready to pull the trigger and make a decision. Maybe agent's wife/family want him not working holidays week; maybe a player's wife would like to know where she'll be living next season; maybe doesn't want Christmas relatives constantly asking him about where he's going to go and giving crazy suggestions.
So good chance that some decisions that impact the Cubs (maybe indirectly) will come down by next weekend.
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??? A reference to a native american possibly being named after an animal is now offensive? That's like saying anyone with a last name starting with Mc might be Irish is offensive.
The snow is getting deep...
I had never expected to be in a position of defending Dusty from the suggestion that he is being insensitive, offensive or even bigoted in something he wrote. But I am with wmljohn on this. If I were still living in either Oklahoma or Santa Fe, I'd be able to check in with one of the Native Americans I knew there to see what they thought, but my guess is they would not be offended.
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R&P or bleachers.
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R&P or bleachers.
Oh... I forgot about the topic police. let me get back on target.
Q: What is the difference between a Cubs fan and a baby?
A: The baby will stop whining after awhile.
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Q: How do you make a Cubs fan laugh on Monday?
A: Tell him a joke on Friday!
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I took my broken vacuum cleaner back to the store. They put a Chicago Cubs jersey on it and now it sucks again.
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Father & Son
A father and son are outside Wrigley Field, and the young son is asking his father to buy him a "Cardinals Suck" T-shirt. The father hesitates, but finally tells his son, "You can have the shirt if you promise never to say that word."
"That's right," says the T-shirt vendor, wanting to make the sale. "'Suck' isn't a very nice word."
"No," replies the father. "I meant the word 'Cardinals'."
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Weren’t we looking at Tony Watson at the deadline? Either last season, or the year before?
I’m surprised he hasn’t signed somewhere yet.
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Neat videos of Schwarber doing drills. He is clearly leaner than in the past. In the foot drills he sure looks quick. It will be interesting to see how much this transfers into improved performance in the field and at the plate.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21776262/inside-chicago-cubs-outfielder-kyle-schwarber-offseason-workout-routine
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The one at the end where he is talking about his off-season work outs had no audio for me. Sucks I had to watch a 30 second commercial to watch a video of someone talking with no audio. :(
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Weren’t we looking at Tony Watson at the deadline? ...
I'd prefer Watson to Duensing (ignoring cost factor)
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Are the Cubs a "dominant candidate" for Darvish? Bleacher Nation found a report from Japan that seems to say that (using Google translator).
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/15/enormous-grain-of-salt-report-out-of-japan-seems-to-suggest-cubs-are-in-on-yu-darvish/
Here's the original report from Japan:
https://www.nikkansports.com/baseball/mlb/news/201712150000763.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nikkansports_ogp
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I doubt it, but being in silent running mode and swooping on Darvish late would be in character for Theo.
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I had mentioned Darvish a day or two back, no rumors. Wondered if he isn't getting a ton of action, too many teams who figure they just can't or don't want to commit the price/length they assume he'll cost?
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If Darvish is going for a discount because of the WS flop and/or pitch tipping, I would seriously consider trying to benefit from that. The guy has TORP stuff, and pitchers like that don't come available all that often.
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Let's assume the Cubs have ~$25 million a year left to spend on pitching. What would everyone here prefer?
- Spend all (or at least the vast majority) on Darvish. Bullpen either stays as it is, or the Cubs take a flyer on a guy they can get for $2 million (like Duensing last year, but probably with less success)
- Make mid-level additions to both the rotation and bullpen (Cobb and Reed)
- Spend for Davis, then add a lesser SP (maybe someone like Jhoulys Chacin or Jeremy Hellickson)
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A.
But I think there are other options out there.
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Darvish
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What about Greinke if the D-Backs pay down is salary?
Darvish being nearly the same age as Arrieta and post TJS scares me for a big $, long term commitment.
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I'd bet on Darvish outperforming Greinke over the remaining years of Greinke's deal. Of course, you'd have to sign Darvish for 6 years, probably.
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Cobb and Reed.
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Arrieta.
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Davis and Reed.
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This is overwhelmingly likely to be a moot discussion anyway. We were on Darvish's no-trade list.
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Dusty,
Do you ever stop and consider that a post might be offensive to some before you make it?
You just start reading his posts?
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Now, just to clarify, I not only see nothing wrong with Dusty's post, I agree with it. Of course, that is a separate issue from whether Dusty ever stops to consider that a post might be offensive.
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Schwarber looks great. You can see why the front office thinks so highly of him. He busts his hump to get better in every way.
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I don't think losing 20 pounds will make any difference to his Ks or getting tied up on inside fastballs. But it might make him slightly less of a defensive liability in left. As for the work ethic and attitude, I don't think anybody ever questioned that.
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Schwarber has also working on his swing in those videos.
Marlin chimed in on PSD saying he thinks unless the Cubs really overpay that they can’t get any trades done with the Rays.
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Yeah, I saw that. I don't think we had anything cooking anyway (if there's a surprise deal for a SP coming, Salazar is way more likely than Archer).
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Jason Martinez on MLB trades rumors thought it would be Salazar + for Happ, FWIW.
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Salazar intrigues me.
I'd be willing to talk business with Cleveland.
How much longer would we control him?
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3 years.
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Phil Rogers is apparently writing under the byline of Jesse Rogers now. Either that or Jesse Rogers has gone off the rails, proposing the Cubs trade Addison Russell for one year of Manny Machado.
"But even if Machado doesn’t sign on long term, the Cubs can still come out of a deal just fine. One year of Machado in the middle of a strong lineup featuring the right-handed-hitting Machado and Kris Bryant around the left-handed Anthony Rizzo would be worth the price of admission every night in every ballpark. The Cubs' lineup would again be October-worthy, making the deal worth it for that reason alone."
http://www.espn.com/blog/...-machado-blockbuster-deal (http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46311/why-cubs-should-make-addison-russell-for-manny-machado-blockbuster-deal)
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Nope.
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Are the Cubs a "dominant candidate" for Darvish? Bleacher Nation found a report from Japan that seems to say that (using Google translator).
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/15/enormous-grain-of-salt-report-out-of-japan-seems-to-suggest-cubs-are-in-on-yu-darvish/
Here's the original report from Japan:
https://www.nikkansports.com/baseball/mlb/news/201712150000763.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nikkansports_ogp
The focus seems to be just on how the Cubs have suddenly come into the discussion, and that the Cubs are a big-money team with spending power, implying (for his fans, and not directly stating) that Darvish could get a big payday and play with a winner again.
I'd love to have him.
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Brett Taylor's assessment of getting Machado:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/16/manny-machado-is-great-but-should-the-cubs-dangle-addison-russell-to-get-him/
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Machado seems like the product of beat reporters with too much time on their hands looking for a story. No way the Cubs do this.
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The first question with Machado would be, "Where would he play?"
Shift him to 2nd and put Baez at SS?
Shift him to LF?
Leave him at 3B and move Bryant to LF?
Hope Maddon finds a 10th position on the field to put him in?
The next question is whether last year was an abberation or a clear indication of what to expect for the next year or two?
In 2017 Machado had an OPS+ of only 107, which certainly is not terrible, but also is not all that great.
And just what is expected from Russell in the future?
Those three questions need to be answered before moving to the issue of whether he would sign an extension, what an extension might cost, or whether the trade might be worthwhile even if he would not consider an extension and insists on leaving via FA.
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$13/2
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-to-sign-steve-cishek.html
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Something to keep your eye on . Cubs in on numerous pitchers and are kicking the tires on Yu Darvish now .
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It sure seems like we are in on Darvish.
I hope he's healthy.
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Let's assume the Cubs have ~$25 million a year left to spend on pitching. What would everyone here prefer?
- Spend all (or at least the vast majority) on Darvish. Bullpen either stays as it is, or the Cubs take a flyer on a guy they can get for $2 million (like Duensing last year, but probably with less success)
- Make mid-level additions to both the rotation and bullpen (Cobb and Reed)
- Spend for Davis, then add a lesser SP (maybe someone like Jhoulys Chacin or Jeremy Hellickson)
Tough one. I guess I'm going to say Darvish, because he seems like he has the reputation for having the stuff to win some postseason games.
I'm just going by gut instinct, not by head. I think *if* the Cubs signed him, that would be much more exciting, and I'd have higher hopes entering March. How I'd feel over the ensuing years, of course, who knows!
One other note/perspective: as it stands, until they add SOMEBODY for rotation, Montgomery stands as 5th starter. So whether it's somebody like Darvish, or Cobb, or Hellickson, if/when they do add a starter, that effectively moves Montgomery back to the pen. So, in a sense, whether they sign starter+reliever, or 2-relievers, the pen ends up with the same number of guys. Montgomery + two other guys, it's one for rotation and two for relief either way.
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There seems to be enough smoke around this Cubs-Darvish business to suggest there's more fire than just that Japanese media report. It does make sense, no question - why wouldn't they be interested?
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I do wonder if the Darvish rumors are being leaked just to pressure Cobb to sign. I don't know where he's going to get more than about 4 years, $50 million if the Cubs are no longer part of the bidding.
It could be a situation where two things are in play--Cobb is asking for more than expected, and Darvish's market is less than expected. If Cobb is asking for something like 4/$80 and Darvish's expected price of 6/$150 has fallen to something like 5/$120, then why not pay the extra for Darvish?
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Timing after the Ohtani disappointment is about right...go after another big fish. But I got my hopes up for Ohtani and I am going to be more rational on Darvish.
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About time you were rational about SOMETHING.
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If the numbers are even remotely close between Darvish and Cobb, it's a no-brainer to go after Darvish. We're talking prime ribeye vs. ground chuck.
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...It could be a situation where two things are in play--Cobb is asking for more than expected, and Darvish's market is less than expected. If Cobb is asking for something like 4/$80 and Darvish's expected price of 6/$150 has fallen to something like 5/$120, then why not pay the extra for Darvish?
That's a good perspective, I think that makes a lot of hypothetical sense.
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Other boring comment is that the Cubs presumably have an interest in almost anybody who's good and fits their needs. For every trade discussion that results in a trade, there are presumably hundreds of others that happen but don't. Team signs a couple of FA's every year; but were probably "interested in" and probably "kicked the tires" on dozens of others?
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They could also be looking to drive the price up.
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The more I think on Darvish, the more I really want this to happen. He takes a middling rotation which is likely at a disadvantage against most postseason opponents and turns it into a strength. If you can get him for 5 years at not much more than $20M per, that would be a great move.
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I agree that that would be a great move. But I expect that he will bring much more than that, which would make it a not-so-great move.
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Teams just got $50 million from the sale of BamTech. The chances of Darvish signing for Jordan Zimmermann money is small
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Also worth noting that Darvish is not a Boras client. Tellem’s group seems to have decent relationships with the Cubs, and might be less likely to hold out until spring hoping to get what the agent thinks the guy is worth (which will probably happen with Arrieta).
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Suppose Darvish will sign for $130/5 today. Do you agree?
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I would do that, yes.
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I would as well...
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Phil Rogers is apparently writing under the byline of Jesse Rogers now. Either that or Jesse Rogers has gone off the rails, proposing the Cubs trade Addison Russell for one year of Manny Machado.
Either that or someone at ESPN told Rogers he needed to start getting more clicks or he'd be the next to go. That giant "blockbuster" headline going along with it is just made for clickbaiting.
I almost feel like ESPN is turning into a big clickbait site.
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Speculation that Otani actually preferred to sign with the Cubs, but was afraid with his UCL issues playing the outfield was too big a risk. That would suck.
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NL DH, please.
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but sac bunts and double switches.
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Just read on the PSD board that Levine was on the radio this morning saying that Darvish could accept a deal for only 4 years (or 4 years and an option). If that's true, the Cubs should really be in on him.
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Heh, I was just thinking along those lines. 4 years 100 million, with a 30 million option and a 10 million buyout. Why not offer it and see what happens?
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cubs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer landed in Dallas this afternoon. Free agent Yu Darvish meeting is likely destination for the two execs.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cubs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer landed in Dallas this afternoon. Free agent Yu Darvish meeting is likely destination for the two execs.
Yeah, and we're going to get Ohtani too!
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4 years? I'd be ok with that.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cubs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer landed in Dallas this afternoon. Free agent Yu Darvish meeting is likely destination for the two execs.
Interesting. Not sure yet whether to take this seriously, but I'm certainly less skeptical than I was.
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The fact that the Cubs have no other Iranian stars is a big plus, I understand.
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Levine seems modestly well-connected - he's usually not totally out in left field.
Darvish is the sort of opportunity that just doesn't come around that often. If his WS bomb is causing his price to drop, we really should be all over that.
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Confirmation:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
sources: cubs are indeed meeting with yu. they have cast a wide net on free-agent/trade markets for a top starting pitcher. cobb, lynn, arrieta, duffy, archer among other possibilities.
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Flying to Dallas to meet with Yu indicates that at the very least, the Cubs are serious about this and think they have a great chance if they want to pursue it. Especially with Theo bringing Jed to fetch the coffee.
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
sources: cubs are indeed meeting with yu. they have cast a wide net on free-agent/trade markets for a top starting pitcher. cobb, lynn, arrieta, duffy, archer among other possibilities.
That's a higher price/years/quality class than the Hellickson/Chacin/Lackey pool of back-end rotation-fillers.
I get the feeling they're going to take the least awful deal they can, and that they'll probably pay whatever it takes to bring in somebody from that class of guys.
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I don't get the Archer inclusion, unless his late-season arm problems are serious enough to have depressed his trade value a lot.
If you want to trade for a good player on a good contract, I don't think that works if your best minor leaguers are Ademan, Alzolay, Albertos, and Caratini.
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That's a higher price/years/quality class than the Hellickson/Chacin/Lackey pool of back-end rotation-fillers.
I get the feeling they're going to take the least awful deal they can, and that they'll probably pay whatever it takes to bring in somebody from that class of guys.
a 4-year deal on Darvish would be anything but awful.
Sign Darvish. Trade Happ and a prospect for Yelich, Barraclough and Prado. Done - great offseason, worry about next year next December.
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Flying to Dallas to meet with Yu indicates that at the very least, the Cubs are serious about this and think they have a great chance if they want to pursue it. Especially with Theo bringing Jed to fetch the coffee.
Due diligence! :) Not sure it says anything about "great" chance. I'd assume they'd do diligence on even a teensy chance.
There are four variably decent SP FA's in Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn. I think they ought to be flying wherever it take to sales-pitch each of those four guys/agents, perhaps repeatedly if needed.
Adding one of those to your rotation (and your budget) is obviously very impactful. With at least >$50+ at stake (Cobb, Lynn) or >$100 (Darvish or Arrieta), and your odds of competing this season as well as beyond, I think it's well worth some flights to try to get the right guy and make the right deal! :)
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How often do you hear about Theo and Jed jetting off together to far-flung parts of the country to chase free agents?
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Am I understanding right that *IF* they were to sign Darvish, he'd not cost them a draft pick?
Obviously a second-round draft pick isn't a big deal, I don't think. But it would be kinda fun to keep them all, and perhaps draft smart and luck into a good player or two this draft.
McLeod's 2nd-rounders have been:
*Zastryzny,
*Stinnett,
*Donnie Dewees>Alec Mills....
*This year Cory Abbot, who knows how he'll turn out.
*Duane Underwood, back when we drafted at the top of the round, instead of the back.
So keeping or losing a guy like that isn't much of a reason for Darvish or against Cobb or Lynn. Still, it would be fun to have a first plus three 2nd-rounders this draft
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How often do you hear about Theo and Jed jetting off together to far-flung parts of the country to chase free agents?
Not often, but I assume only a fraction of the trips, conversations, or tire-kicking that they do make the news.
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Theo/Jed flying somewhere is certainly past the tire kicking stage. It might not get done, but this is at least serious.
Darvish+Yelich+Prado would put the Cubs over the luxury tax in 2018 and 2019.
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a 4-year deal on Darvish would be anything but awful. Sign Darvish. ....
FA's don't normally sign bargain deals. :)
I assume every agent factors longer deal => less per year.
For example, maybe $150/6 ($25-per), $133/5 ($27.5-per), or $120/4 ($30-per).
Would $120/4 be way better than $133/5? Beats me.
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Sign Darvish. Trade Happ and a prospect for Yelich, Barraclough and Prado. Done - great offseason, worry about next year next December.
I don't think the Marlins are going to be motivated to trade Barraclough unless someone overpays. He's not even arbitration eligible, and has a far lower profile than guys like Yelich and Realmuto (so no one is going to even notice or care if he demands a trade). And I still think Almora would have to be included even if the Cubs took back Prado.
But man, finishing off the offseason with Darvish and Yelich would be exciting. It would put the Cubs right there with the Astros and Dodgers for best team in baseball.
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They're already there.
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Craig, indeed Darvish carries no compensation pick penalty. Just money.
Even if taking on Darvish and Prado would push the Cubs over the tax threshold now, there are creative ways to get around that next winter. Just watch how the Yankees and Dodgers do business.
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I don’t think the Yankees are an example for the Cubs. They have waited years for big $ vets to fall off their payroll. The Dodgers sent a bunch of 1 year bad deals for a bad deal spread over 2 years. The Cubs only bad deal is Heyward and that still has multiple years.
If you trade for Yelich you do it players/prospects, not taking on bad money.
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Yu Darvish apparently tweeted something about meeting with the Cubs in Japanese. Bing translate isn’t great, but it appears to have went well.
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Twitter's attempts to translate Darvish's tweets:
1. so today was also reported to have cubs were meeting.
It was a very good meeting. Interpretation, to want to take the next step English 3 and half hours has been meeting ^_^ from the talk at first unfamiliar + strain to utter a word but makutta impatience from the middle was.
2. I'm tired me so I just had a question / remark there, pretty much with the brain in the past 10 years the most tired. Also tomorrow I English (^^) still be scared quicker progress after challenging withdraw no more!. The gutter to the Dodgers was (^^)
https://twitter.com/farid...status/942960388743876608 (https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/942960388743876608)
https://twitter.com/farid...status/942960981008887808 (https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/942960981008887808)
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Cubs Insider has a translation. The meeting went extremely well and Darvish did the 3.5 hour meeting without a translator. He had some trouble at first with English, but then did well with it.
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What does "The gutter to the Dodgers was (^^)" mean? Is (^^) some kind of substitute for an emoji? Is it positive or negative? Does "gutter" mean trade? It sounds like he's working without a translator again tomorrow...is that while talking with the Dodgers? Or the Cubs again?
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We're gonna sign him.
I bet Jake loves knowing we believe in Darvish and not him.
I hope he's healthy and I hope we dont use all of our bullpen money.
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What does "The gutter to the Dodgers was (^^)" mean? Is (^^) some kind of substitute for an emoji? Is it positive or negative? Does "gutter" mean trade? It sounds like he's working without a translator again tomorrow...is that while talking with the Dodgers? Or the Cubs again?
Nothing on the second tweet.
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Interpretation of the second tweet:
Dylan Hernandez @dylanohernandez
Darvish on speaking English in meeting with Cubs: "You develop faster if you challenge yourself instead of freaking out and cowering. I realized that when I went to the Dodgers."
I bet Jake loves knowing we believe in Darvish and not him.
There's good reason to believe in Darvish over Arrieta. Jake has lost a couple mph the last couple of years; Darvish threw as hard as ever this year.
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Yu is only half-Japanese, and he has some personality aspects that seem quite un-Japanese - maybe a coincidence. But this business about not using an interpreter is very, very unusual even among Japanese who understand English well.
People will laugh that off as trivia, but it's not. He took this very seriously indeed.
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Darvish on speaking English in meeting with Cubs: "You develop faster if you challenge yourself instead of freaking out and cowering. I realized that when I went to the Dodgers."
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Free agents don't normally tweet about talking to specific teams before they sign.
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Where there’s smoke...
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My guess is we sign Darvish, probably five years, probably something like $125 million with a substantial back-load. I hope so, as I think that'd be a great score for the Cubs - absolutely could be wrong, but this whole exchange feels like it has serious weight to it. And Darvish has always been strikingly open about his intentions as an athlete - if there's a widespread perception here and in Japan that he's linked with the Cubs, it's because he wants there to be.
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Nothing is signed yet, but as others have mentioned, we almost never hear of Theo & Co’s specific moves as they unfold, and it’s very rare for a player to telegraph so publicly his positive meeting with a suitor team. Sure feels like this could happen...
If you had told me at the start of the offseason that the Cubs would sign Darvish, Chatwood, Morrow, and Smyly, I’d have said no way. You could have substituted Cobb for Darvish and I’d have been thrilled with that list. But a rotation of Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Chatwood... wow.
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Free agents don't normally tweet about talking to specific teams before they sign.
Yeah, this is starting to sound pretty serious.
I thought it was just "kicking tires" and due diligence, but this indeed sounds like it's moved past that.
I wonder about the 3.5-hour interview in English. I imagine Cubs wanted that? I wonder if they always do that? Or if the magnitude of a Darvish deal provokes greater precaution? I admit I wonder whether some of the Chapman story makes them even more cautious perhaps than may have been true formerly?
Will be very curious to see whether anything happens with this over the next few days.
And if we get him, whether or not he'll be good for the Cubs? Or a HR-factory who's more #3-ish.
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It is unusual for this front office to go public with their efforts to sign a free agent. The only other one I remember was when they went after Tanaka.
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Nothing is signed yet, but as others have mentioned, we almost never hear of Theo & Co’s specific moves as they unfold, and it’s very rare for a player to telegraph so publicly his positive meeting with a suitor team. Sure feels like this could happen...
If you had told me at the start of the offseason that the Cubs would sign Darvish, Chatwood, Morrow, and Smyly, I’d have said no way. You could have substituted Cobb for Darvish and I’d have been thrilled with that list. But a rotation of Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Chatwood... wow.
You guys are getting my hopes up on this. Stop it!
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It is unusual for this front office to go public with their efforts to sign a free agent. The only other one I remember was when they went after Tanaka.
I don't think that the Cubs have gone public on this.
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I don't think that the Cubs have gone public on this.
ITA - none of this came from them. But clearly, Darvish had no problem with it being public. That's kind of his personality though.
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It is unusual for this front office to go public with their efforts to sign a free agent. The only other one I remember was when they went after Tanaka.
I seem to recall our pursuit of Lester was pretty public.
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Sharma had a nice piece on the Athletic. He thinks initially the Cubs went after Cobb, but his price was too high so they looked into Duffy and the trading cost was too high and they moved onto Darvish and it sounds like the price is more to the Cubs liking. Another interesting tidbit is the Cubs haven’t talked to the Rays about Archer.
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Cobb's price is higher than Darvish's? Hmmmm...
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Sharma had a nice piece on the Athletic. He thinks initially the Cubs went after Cobb, but his price was too high so they looked into Duffy and the trading cost was too high and they moved onto Darvish and it sounds like the price is more to the Cubs liking. Another interesting tidbit is the Cubs haven’t talked to the Rays about Archer.
Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/189473/2017/12/18/cubs-pursuit-of-yu-darvish-wasnt-part-of-the-plan-but-now-he-might-be-their-best-option/
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Cobb's price is higher than Darvish's? Hmmmm...
Sharma does not say that. He says that Cobb's price appears to have crept closer to the price for Darvish, enough closer that it may make more sense for the Cubs to go for Darvish, the better pitcher, instead.
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Sharma does not say that. He says that Cobb's price appears to have crept closer to the price for Darvish, enough closer that it may make more sense for the Cubs to go for Darvish, the better pitcher, instead.
Well that makes more sense I suppose.
I'm not sure Darvish' perceived value has ever really matched his talent though.
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I wonder if you’d complain that Babe Ruth wasn’t a switch hitter?
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Career 3.42 ERA, last year 3.86.
*Over is career, he's basically been a 6-inning-per-start guy.
*Career average is 1.0 HR/game, lower early in his career, higher lately.
*Turns 32 this summer.
*The hope will be that he can maintain his stuff and his performance for several years, but it's obviously probable that at some point during the contract is stuff is going to decline to some extent going into his mid-30's.
*Fastball has good velocity, but not especially good movement. (Sometimes hitters anticipate fastball against good-fastball guys, but still can't kill it because the life is good. Houston killed them.)
Seems like a solid pitcher, very good, I'd love to get him, and the 2018 Cubs will probably be a LOT more competitive with him than with Lackey or some back-end rotation filler. So I'm fired up about the possibilities. I'm also guessing that he's got stuff so that on his better days, he can probably be really good. Hopefully some of those will be in October and November. But I can't expect him to be great, he's a 3.42 guy who gives up a lot of HR's, and who probably uses a lot of pitches to get through his 6 and once-in-a-while 7 innings.
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Think Wrigley April could be a good thing if they were to sign him. In "Cubs Way", Lester talked about his first season, when he didn't start off very well and he said he felt a lot of pressure to try to justify the contract and expectations.
Darvish's biggest vulnerability is HR. But Wrigley in spring is NOT HR-friendly. So if you're protected from your biggest vulnerability early, I'd think you could maybe get some success early, so that fans and media and teammates and yourself all settle down and get past the gotta-make-a-good-impression pressure.
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I don't think that the Cubs have gone public on this.
They have not gone public, but nor have they kept it under wraps, as they usually do.
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Draft question: If nobody gives Davis a $50 deal, do the Cubs still get a comp pick?
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From 2012-2017
Darvish is 18 in fWAR despite being between 200-400 IP behind most of the people ahead of him on the list. Lester and Quintana 9th and 10th.
He is 15th in ERA- (Hendricks is 4th, so put what weight you want into this stat.
Darvish would easily be the Cubs #1 starter.
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Yup. Unless Lester somehow reverts to 2016 form Yu would be the de factor #1 guy. He'd be the projected Game 1 starter. Hard to overstate how much of an impact a guy like that has on your team.
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Numbers regardless, you could have potential for a really excellent regular-season rotation. Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, we could debate who's #1. But the real advantage would be coming at #3/4. Choose whichever of those guys you think are #1/2; but whichever two are left as #3/4 could be relatively way good. Going to have a lot of regular-season games where opponent is at a big disadvantage when using their #3/#4 starters.
And of course I'm all optimistic that Chatwood will be good too, and will function like a solid #3 starter. May be a lot of games when Chatwood might go up against opponent's #3/4 guy, and we'll still be at no disadvantage.
Fun to imagine a rotation where you could expect pretty consistent strong starts day in, day out. That's good for consistency, and great for regular season.
I'd be pretty fired up for the 6-month regular season with those five guys.
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If we sign Darvish, I won't be surprised if we try a 6-man rotation with Monty for good chunks of the season. There are a lot of reasons to like the idea.
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I think a consistent rotation is good for pen. If rotation is consistently going 6, with as many 7-inning starts as there are 5-inning starts, I'd guess that would make it easier for Hickey to schedule/spread out work among the 8 relievers.
Enough innings to keep everybody sharp, but not so many as to exhaust anybody.
Would be pretty desirable to have a relatively consistent collection of 8 relievers, though. Would hope that for most regular-season 6-inning starts, that you could more often cover 3 innings of relief with 3 relievers rather than needing multiple mid-inning switches and routinely needing 4-5 guys to cover 3 innings.
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It may be a good idea to temper the excitement a tad about Darvish and how much he would benefit the Cubs. I'm just sayin' ...
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If we sign Darvish, I won't be surprised if we try a 6-man rotation with Monty for good chunks of the season. There are a lot of reasons to like the idea.
I saw someone post this yesterday somewhere else. Here's some discussion from this past weekend on why 6 man rotations are bad from Will Carroll (starts somewhere between 15 and 16 minutes in):
https://omny.fm/shows/julie-dicaro-on-670-the-score/6-man-rotations-are-bad
Basically, there's no evidence that a 6 man rotation that a six man rotation helps keep players healthier. And with no real evidence, why take about 25 starts from your top 5 starters to give them to your sixth best starter?
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Because the body of evidence is too small to draw any definitive conclusions, no matter what Carroll says. And there's some evidence from NPB that it can actually produce the desired result.
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I didn't listen to the podcast, so they might have covered this, but I'd argue it's not health as much as freshness.
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Early in the season, many teams send a fifth stsrter to the minors because there arent enough starts.
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Jesse Rogers added more to the Cobb/Darvish.
The issue with Cobb seems to be years and not cash. The Cubs would like a 3 year contract and Cobb is looking for 4/5. Rogers also added that due to age/health Darvish might only get 4 years.
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I can’t blame Cobb too much. Someone out there will give him four.
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Non-pitcher, non-Yu discussion.
1. Oddity: Cubs roster presently has only 14 players. Caratini is 12th man, for now.
2. Zagunis and Bote are the others. Very short roster numbers-wise, and very shallow in "next man up" quality.
3. Cubs could be very active and appealing in acquiring non-roster 4A types. David Bote and Mark Zagunis the only guys to beat to become "next man up" and be one injury away from a callup? *IF* you can produce, you've got a great chance. Don't know who they've signed if any, but I'd think by April there could be some veterans at Iowa.
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We will probably sign a vet backstop, though they don't have to. I'm guessing a defensive outfielder, too.
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While getting a guy that could play CF would be nice, they have Almora, Happ and Heyward on the roster already. With the glut of COF/1B players they might be able to get a nice bench bat for cheap.
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If we sign another catcher, I'd be very happy with Rivera. It'd be nice to have one elite defender on the roster.
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Jon Jay had had 379 AB and 433 PA last year. How do those get picked up? Barring injury, we've got what projects as a strong/deep 12-man roster.
So Maddon will just need to divvy up those extra 433 PA's as best he can among the existing carryover guys.
*Almora + Happ: 323, 413 PA.
*Schwarber + heyward: 486, 481.
*Zobrist: 496.
*La Stella: 151.
Perhaps split up Jay's 433 as follows?:
150 to Almora (323 > 463)
80 to Happ (413 > 493)
50 to Heyward (481 > 531)
50 to Schwarber (486 > 536)
150 to La Stella (151 > 301)
Reduce Zobrist by 50 (496 to 446)
I'm sure Almora and Happ are eager to take more, but they already had a lot. Neither can add a ton. Given how hot-cold Happ can be, and how vulnerable to some kind of stuff, I think it's desirable to be able to not play him all the time when he's in a hole.
*Almora will pick up a bunch, but he can be hot-cold too, and it's unclear whether facing tough righties all the time might not beat him down. I'd like to give him a bunch more, but putting him into **too** many failure-situations is not necessarily doing him or the team a great favor.
Heyward: I hate the idea of giving even more AB's to helpless-hitting, almost-never-a-good-AB Heyward. But may need to bite the bullet and give away even more AB's to him? (If somehow the miraculous happened and he became a decent hitter, that would be so fun...)
Schwarber: I'm much hoping that Schwarber improves a lot, and that we'll be happy to give him more. But as with Almora with RHP, I'm not sure that running Schwarber out there against lefties who are going to eat him alive is doing him any favor. May be kinda optimal to just try to shape him into a good platoon guy rather than forcing him to struggle against LHP?
Zobrist: maybe he'll be healthy and better and take on some extra, or at least carry a comparable load but more productively. But at this age I just figure he's probably in the serous decline phase of his career. I'd rather plan on dropping him one or two hundred PA's rather than gaining more! But Maddon may feel like he's got no choice other than to keep giving him PA's whether he produces or not. But man, if both Heyward and Zobrist are bad, and are still starting most games, the lineup could be less than relentless!
La Stella: I'm imagining La Stella getting a lot more. *IF* Tommy can put up a lot of consistently good AB's, he might end up getting a lot of starts, and could easily pick up an extra 150 PA and get up to 300. Think he'd also kind of replace some of the Jay profile in the lineup; long tough AB's that can give tough AB's even versus good pitchers.
The mis-fit with La Stella is that days you want to sit Schwarber and Heyward versus lefties, La Stella doesn't help you there. Happ is better versus RHP too.
Zo had 397 PA versus RHP last year; so I could imagine Tommy getting 150 of those, if he's hitting and Zobrist isn't? With injury, last year Z was much worse versus LHP than RHP; so if that split continues, transferring his RHP aB's to La Stella does not make perfect sense. But career-wise Zobrist as been better vs LHP. So if Zo could productively keep or increase his AB versus LHP, and Tommy picked up more of Zobrist's AB versus RHP, that might work? (If one or the other was starting, I wonder how they'd fare leading off?)
So, maybe Zobrist and Happ could pick up a lot of the AB versus LHP when Maddon sits Schwarber and/or Heyward? And La Stella/Happ/Zobrist pick up starts against RHP when Maddon sits Almora, and sometimes Baez or Russell. Think it's really important that Zobrist returns to some level of anti-awful versus LHP!
Baez and Russell mostly every-day guys. But both tend to be slumpy, and I can't imagine Baez is going to change his profile much. So may be some matchups and slumps where getting some PA's from TLS/Zo/Happ in place of Baez or Russell might make sense.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRbdN9hXkAA_BsY.jpg:small)
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We will probably sign a vet backstop, though they don't have to. I'm guessing a defensive outfielder, too.
While getting a guy that could play CF would be nice, they have Almora, Happ and Heyward on the roster already. With the glut of COF/1B players they might be able to get a nice bench bat for cheap.
No room for another OFer.
Maddon wants a 13-man staff, and well he should.
2nd catcher, yes that's a question.
But the other 10 guys seem very well defined, with Happ, Zobrist, and La Stella taking the three bench spots. No interest in replacing Happ or releasing La Stella for a defensive outfielder.
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Wouldn't shock to see Contreras getting a little LF action, too, if they want to keep his bat in versus LHP, but need to rest his legs and use Rivera or Caratini or whomever catching.
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Interesting analysis of Cishek by Brett Taylor:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/19/steve-cishek-was-all-universe-after-midseason-trade-to-rays-this-year-cubs-getting-that-guy/
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Darvish meeting with the Astros. That's a bit worrisome.
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Their 2018 payroll is $148 million, which is already $20+ million more than last year. I wonder how much higher they can go?
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After winning the World Series and getting the fourth largest media market excited about them, they might have a lot more to spend than usual.
Hopefully not for Darvish though.
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Big market, just coming off WS so probably sales and revenue is going crazy. Shouldn't their spending capacity be more-or-less comparable to Cubs, or maybe higher?
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Hopefully the meetings mean that he's getting close to signing and this won't drag out too much longer.
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The Astros do already have 6 starters--Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, Peacock, McCullers, and McHugh (plus Joe Musgrove, who they probably see as a full time starter eventually)--so I don't really see why they would work hard to outbid anyone for Darvish. I wonder if they're in mostly because they think he might come at a discount.
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Big market, just coming off WS so probably sales and revenue is going crazy. Shouldn't their spending capacity be more-or-less comparable to Cubs, or maybe higher?
According to Forbes the Cubs revenue in 2016 was $434 million, the Astros $299.
Cubs attendance was 3.199 million vs 2.4 for Houston and the Cubs Forbes estimate for revenue/fan was $83 for the Cubs and $33 for the Astros.
It think the Astros currently have a better TV deal, but they are capped at $80 million/year without any equity until 2032 vs the Cubs 60ish million.
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Wow
https://twitter.com/mlbbrucelevine/status/943241596564275200
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What on earth would the Cubs trade for Machado? Happ+? Russell and Happ?
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As someone who has thought the Cubs need to add a bat all offseason, I just don't see the fit for Machado. Too expensive for a one year player, and the outfield is where they need to improve the offense.
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I think the Machado stuff is bunk, personally, but who knows.
The Astros do have 6 starters, but Keuchel and Verlander are not exactly secure long-term propositions for them at the top of the rotation - they may be less worried about depth and more worried about having a TORP in place for the next few seasons.
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According to Forbes the Cubs revenue in 2016 was $434 million, the Astros $299.
Cubs attendance was 3.199 million vs 2.4 for Houston and the Cubs Forbes estimate for revenue/fan was $83 for the Cubs and $33 for the Astros....
Thanks, blue, interesting. I wonder how much winning closes the attendance and revenue/fan ratio?
Houston was a non-playoff 3rd place 84-win team that season, while Cubs had their greatest season in team history and won the WS with a bunch of playoff games hosted, lots of jersey sales and Cubs Christmas gifts I think! That's probably going to close the projected revenue gap for this year and next, I assume. But I have no idea how much.
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I didn't listen to the podcast, so they might have covered this, but I'd argue it's not health as much as freshness.
I forgot to respond to this earlier. They did talk about this--Carroll said that pitchers aren't really any fresher either. He said pitchers' arms fully recover in about 3 days after pitching (though I guess that doesn't address the issue of cumulative innings for the year). He actually suggested a better plan that fits better with the evidence is to go to load up the bullpen and go to a four man rotation where starters are only expected to go five innings.
He also mentioned in passing that the NPB six man rotation didn't really help either, but he didn't go into detail on that (except to say that pitchers in Japan are worked harder when they're younger, so there might be a survivor bias).
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Japanese pitchers are worked harder when they're younger?
Damn I would have never thought that.
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Do you seek validation and approval in your real life as much as you do here?
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My wife says I do. Lol
I do it here as more of a reminder that Im not the dumbass some here would have you believe I am.
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I forgot to respond to this earlier. They did talk about this--Carroll said that pitchers aren't really any fresher either. He said pitchers' arms fully recover in about 3 days after pitching (though I guess that doesn't address the issue of cumulative innings for the year). He actually suggested a better plan that fits better with the evidence is to go to load up the bullpen and go to a four man rotation where starters are only expected to go five innings.
I have always thought that that would be a great way to go, at least for the #5 and even #4 starters. Let two guys piggyback, as they do in the low minors, and do away with those incessant one-inning relievers, at least for that rotation spot.
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So Orioles apparently want Baez for Machado. I really hope that is a no.
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So the question is is 1 year of Manny Machado worth how ever long we have left of Javy Baez?
3 years?
Depends on if we're selling out for another world series.
I couldn't immediately say "no".
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I could.
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I’m guessing Machado wouldn’t be interested in agreeing to an extension before a trade, but that would make some of those trade ideas a little more palatable. I know that’s really kind of a no no to trade a top young player regardless of an extension or not, but Machado will have so much competition next offseason, it might be worth it in his case.
Still not likely to happen though.
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Baez for Machado is as close to a literally insane idea as hot stove bullshirt gets.
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I dont think I could do it.
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I don't take the idea of a trade for Machado seriously. That said, it's worth noting that Machado is all of five months older than Baez, so an extension would make such a trade a whole lot more conceivable.
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As much as Machado would cost he'd surely take us out of the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.
So who would you rather have?
Probably Harper because he may help us keep Bryant.
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All of Russell, Baez, and Happ are objectively worth more than one year of Machado.
I don’t believe the rumors, but if they’re real, one of two things is happening:
1) We’re trading one of the MI’s, but not to Baltimore. Instead, one of the MI trio is being dealt elsewhere for cost-controlled SP, thus clearing a spot for Machado.
2) We’re trading one of the MI’s to Baltimore, but it’s for more than just Machado.
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Career 3.42 ERA, last year 3.86.
*Over is career, he's basically been a 6-inning-per-start guy.
*Career average is 1.0 HR/game, lower early in his career, higher lately.
*Turns 32 this summer.
*The hope will be that he can maintain his stuff and his performance for several years, but it's obviously probable that at some point during the contract is stuff is going to decline to some extent going into his mid-30's.
*Fastball has good velocity, but not especially good movement. (Sometimes hitters anticipate fastball against good-fastball guys, but still can't kill it because the life is good. Houston killed them.)
Seems like a solid pitcher, very good, I'd love to get him, and the 2018 Cubs will probably be a LOT more competitive with him than with Lackey or some back-end rotation filler. So I'm fired up about the possibilities. I'm also guessing that he's got stuff so that on his better days, he can probably be really good. Hopefully some of those will be in October and November. But I can't expect him to be great, he's a 3.42 guy who gives up a lot of HR's, and who probably uses a lot of pitches to get through his 6 and once-in-a-while 7 innings.
Kyle Hendricks is sort of the Rodney Dangerfield of the Cubs' pitching staff, and perhaps of major league pitchers in general.
In 2016 he had an ERA+ of 196, 25 points better than next best Jon Lester and 60 points better than Arrieta. Hendricks' FIP in 2016 was 3.20, meaningfully better than Lester's 3.41.... and we all know how important and telling the FIP is.... except when it isn't because it doesn't fit our agenda.
In 2017, despite physical problems that put him on the DL and caused his ERA to bloom to a completely uncharacteristic 4.09 in the first half, he finished again with the best ERA, best ERA+ and best FIP on the team, largely thru a 2nd half ERA of 2.19, close to repeating his 2016 full season ERA of 2.13. His ERA+ in 2017 -- 144, 21 points better than the 2nd best on the team.
So how did Darvish compare? An ERA+ of 118 in 2017 and 134 in 2016, well below Hendricks -- Darvish was at 134 in his better year, while Hendricks was at 144 in his weaker year.
From 2012-2017
Darvish is 18 in fWAR despite being between 200-400 IP behind most of the people ahead of him on the list. Lester and Quintana 9th and 10th.
He is 15th in ERA- (Hendricks is 4th, so put what weight you want into this stat.
Darvish would easily be the Cubs #1 starter.
Yup. Unless Lester somehow reverts to 2016 form Yu would be the de factor #1 guy. He'd be the projected Game 1 starter. Hard to overstate how much of an impact a guy like that has on your team.
Darvish will be 32 next year, an age when most pitchers are NOT improving and are often showing some decline.
Hendricks will be 28, an age when many pitchers are still showing improvement.
Darvish has a WAR the last two years of 5.8; Hendricks has an 8.5
In the world where actual performance on the field is less important than what a pitcher register on a radar gun, Darvish might well be the staff ace in 2018 if the Cubs add him.
In the world where actual on the field performance is more important, Hendricks would be the likely ace, and Darvish a very nice #1 or 2.
Don't get me wrong, I really like the idea of the Cubs signing him. I simply do not believe he would likely be the best starter on the team in 2017. What he would almost certainly do, however, is to help the Cubs field a rotation of at least four very strong starters. Good move.
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The best way to sign a 5th starter is to sign a 1 and move the rest back a spot.
I cant hate on it.
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Jes, that's a good post re Hendricks.
"Hitting is timing, pitching is the destruction of timing." Hendricks does that incredibly well, which is why his WAR is as it is.
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Jes, that's a good post re Hendricks.
"Hitting is timing, pitching is the destruction of timing." Hendricks does that incredibly well, which is why his WAR is as it is.
Some here have essentially admitted in their comments that to them, being an ace requires lighting up a radar gun.... and, interestingly, these are often folks who not only embrace sabermetrics, but they ridicule those who may not share the same enthusiasm about some of the manufactured stats.... and then they ignore actual performance in favor of a reading on a radar gun.
I do really hope the Cubs sign Darvish, but not because I think he will be better than Hendricks, and if he were going to be reliably better than Hendricks has been over the last two years, the bidding war would likely cause the Theocracy to wisely walk away.
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For Darvish, I'd think Houston being in home-state of Texas would be to their advantage. So might his post-season experience: Darvish and his Dodgers staff totally dominated the Cubs hitters, but the tenacious Houston hitters totally dominated him and beat up the good Dodgers staff pretty well. He may figure the Astros hitters are going to take the team farther than the Cubs hitters can? Advantage Houston?
I'd think the short LF fence in Houston would be unappealing. Disadvantage Houston.
Racist stuff from Gurriel. Is that the kind of clubhouse culture he wants to be a part of? Disadvantage Houston?
Theo and Maddon might make a better sales pitch. Advantage Cubs?
$$$$ Who knows?
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I think it is less than encouraging that he even wants to talk to others after an "excellent" meeting with the Cubs.
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Another project? http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21822399/tim-lincecum-bulked-possibly-attempting-major-league-comeback
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Another project? http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21822399/tim-lincecum-bulked-possibly-attempting-major-league-comeback
Hey we were the first team that drafted him!
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I'd love to see the Cubs take a chance on him. Though I don't know where they would use him if they also sign Darvish and everyone is healthy, it is not all that normal for an entire starting rotation to be healthy.
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Article on Schwarber:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21817891/cubs-slugger-kyle-schwarber-lost-20-pounds-mission-transform-body-game
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Hoyer downplays the significance of meeting with Yu Darvish, saying they meet with a lot of players during the winter.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/943531874063970304
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I'll be pretty surprised if Schwarber is traded.
I'll be a bit surprised if any of the core guys are traded. It doesn't seem like any of the "trade a guy for controllable young starting pitching" scenarios are worth it.
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Orioles may release Britton, supposedly. That would be a no-brainer for us or some contender if they do.
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Hoyer downplays the significance of meeting with Yu Darvish, saying they meet with a lot of players during the winter.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/943531874063970304
Thanks, Ron. That was helpful. He said they've probable gone out and visited with 6-8 guys this winter; and if you sign one or two, that's good. I'm actually surprised the number of visits is that few. But yeah, gave more the take of "due diligence" than any hint that they're all that likely to sign him, or that they're on the brink of finishing a deal or anything.
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The Cubs have met with 6-8 players so far. They have signed 4 free agents, Darvish and I would guess Cobb.
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Stupid Yankees...
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/12/20/yankees-interested-yu-darvish/
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Would you guys get the Darvish deal done and quit farting around? I expect better of br, deeg, CBJ, that craig guy.
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Darvish, who was traded from the Texas Rangers to the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, would not cost the Yankees any prospects, but the four-time All-Star won’t come cheap. He is expected to command a multiyear deal that will pay him in the ballpark of $25 million annually.
Of course, the Yankees are not alone in their interest in the 31-year-old Japanese hurler. The Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Astros are also reportedly keen on Darvish.
Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Astros, sounds like more competition than just Astros and Twins.
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I haven't seen any evidence that the Dodgers are in on Darvish, and until either they or the Yankees shed salary they can't add him without going over the cap (and we should just be honest and call the "luxury tax" that). For now, the Astros and Twins are the other confirmed suitors.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/21/obsessive-yu-darvish-watch-yankees-sniffing-around-if-price-drops/
It seems a stretch that the Yanks are really in on him.
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My guess is Darvish is letting this drag out a bit to see if someone (like the Yanks) jump in and push it to 6 years, and if not he'll sign with the Cubs.
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I'm counting on you, Deeg. Bring it home.
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Could do a Kickstarter, I suppose.
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Ken RosenthalVerified account @Ken_Rosenthal
3m3 minutes ago
#Rays were in more urgent position with Longoria, who is 32, had $86 million remaining in guaranteed money and stood to gain full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player in April. Rays can spend 2018 assessing young talent. Archer, as long as he stays healthy, will retain value.
0 replies 8 retweets 5 likes
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I haven't seen any evidence that the Dodgers are in on Darvish, and until either they or the Yankees shed salary they can't add him without going over the cap (and we should just be honest and call the "luxury tax" that). For now, the Astros and Twins are the other confirmed suitors.
Not sure it's always in team's interest to "confirm" their pursuits. So the lack of "confirmed" reports of pursuit doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Also, I'm not sure the lux tax is really a show-stopper. Teams have gone over all the time, so I'm not sure the premise that Dodgers and Yankees need to stay under the cap is necessarily true.
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They need to get under this year so they can blow past it next year without invoking the really severe penalties.
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These are the penalties:
• First time over: 20 percent tax on the overage
• Second time: 30 percent
• Third time: 50 percent
There are also surtaxes:
• Between $20 million and $40 million over the threshold: 12 percent
• $40 million over: 42.5 percent
• Second time $40 million over: 45 percent
These rules would have increased the Dodgers tax bill to $121.9 from the acutal $81.6 million they paid 2013 to 2015.
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There is also forfeiture of draft choices, isn't there?
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Buster Olney Retweeted
ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish)
Verified account
@faridyu
6m6 minutes ago
More ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish) Retweeted Carl
#fakenewsダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish) added,
Carl
@barstoolcarl
Darvish to Cubs done deal after being evaluated by team docs #scoopcity
35 replies 326 retweets 500 likes
Reply 35 Retweet 326 Like 500
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Okay...so it's done or it's fake news?
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?!?!?!?!?!!!!!!???!!!!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!!!!!!
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Looks fake. Or wrong.
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That Barstool Sports guy tweeted that the deal was done. Then every real Cubs beat writer almost immediately tweeted that he was wrong, and Darvish confirmed it was wrong with the #fakenews tweet.
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So glad br is a translator. I speak 3 languages, but Tweet is not one of them.
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He forgot the all caps with the multiple exclamation marks. We wouldn't have been as confused if he had done it right.
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Carrie Muskat
Verified account
@CarrieMuskat
25s25 seconds ago
More Carrie Muskat Retweeted ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish)
Yu says it's fake. No need for interpreter. #Cubs
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Apparently, this same guy tweeted repeatedly that the Cubs had an agreement to trade for Hamels back in June 2015 and he just needed to waive his no trade clause. He eventually weaseled out of that claim by saying the Phillies changed their mind.
It was interesting how quickly and harshly Darvish and all Cubs beat writers responded. Most of the time, they barely even acknowledge a tweet like this from someone who just wants attention.
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There is also forfeiture of draft choices, isn't there?
Over $40 million over 1st puck drops 10 spots. There might also be IFA $ lost as well.
Looks like I missed all the fun.
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So glad br is a translator. I speak 3 languages, but Tweet is not one of them.
Too bad English ain't one of them.
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I no english gooder than the other too
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And to think that your red pencil was feared by Lutheran children across the country.
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Here is some discussion of projections for Darvish:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/22/yu-darvishs-2018-zips-projects-are-out-and-theyre-pretty-great/
Basically, ZiPS has him at an ace level pitcher for about 170 innings, while Steamer has him more as a #2 in about 180 innings. Either way, they should sign him.
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Day late, but Merry Christmas, everybody!
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As we know, pitch framing was a big problem in 2017:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/26/cubs-pitch-framing-fell-off-a-cliff-in-2017-was-that-a-hidden-factor-in-the-pitching-drop-off/
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And as most of us know, framing really matters. That's why if there's going to be a third catcher (assuming Caratini isn't traded) I would love it to be a good framer like Rivera.
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Interesting, P2. I just did a one-minute skim of the article. But the main points I skimmed were:
1. Cubs pitch framing went backwards by 33 runs, from 2nd best to 22nd in baseball.
2. 33 runs calculates as ~3 Wins.
3. Contreras was terrible (98th out of 110 catchers) (Avila was worse (105th), and Rivera barely above average.)
4. Contreras went from 2016-asset (+4.3, 22nd best) to 2017-terrible (-6.3 runs, 98th).
Watching Willson catch, easy to figure he would score as way-bad; bigger surprise that he actually scored as excellent in 2016.
Looking forward, I have no idea?
1. It's a recognized issue, so Willson will focus on it and it do a lot better?
2. Approach the mean? After being really high 2016 and maybe a little on low end 2017, due to be average?
3. 2-way street? Good framing helps pitchers, but maybe strike-throwing pitchers help framing stats, too? I've gotta figure it's easier to frame well on a guy who hits the target, than with Grimm or Edwards, or often Jake Arrieta.
I think Theo wants pitchers to risk more strikes and nibble less, and I assume Hickey will probably agree. Would shifting the approach in that direction impact framing? I think conceptually framing stats are supposed to be independent of wildness and stuff; but I guess I just assume it's harder to do the framing tricks on balls that are moving more sharply away from the strike zone?
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I think some of Willson's trouble with framing last year was catching Lester and Arrieta and the pressure that put on him getting rid of the quickly to throw runners out. Framing requires him to be still and Lester/Arrieta required him to get rid of the ball quickly.
Lester, if anyone, should have manifested framing related stat issues. Lester's BB% was up, but it has gone up for 3 straight years. His K% had a slight drop from 24.8% to 23.6%. That doesn't really explain Lester's jump in ERA or FIP though. (His xFIP- went from 84 to 89 so it wasn't a huge change). Lester's biggest run problem was his BABIP went from .256 to .310, HR% from 12.2% to 15.8%, and his LOB% went from 84.9% to 68.7%.
Willson need's to do better framing without a doubt, but some of what he needs to do on defense will limit his ability to frame pitches.
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[quote author=craig link=topic=496.msg333143#msg333143 date=1514322795
I think Theo wants pitchers to risk more strikes and nibble less, and I assume Hickey will probably agree. Would shifting the approach in that direction impact framing? I think conceptually framing stats are supposed to be independent of wildness and stuff; but I guess I just assume it's harder to do the framing tricks on balls that are moving more sharply away from the strike zone?
[/quote]
Strike throwing shouldn't matter was umps and pitchers are corrected for. So if Arreita is hard to catch for instance there is less or no penalty vs say Hendricks giving you less of a bonus. Willson does stab at the ball to much and that costs strikes, but Lester/Arrieta are so bad at holding on runners you can't always try and frame a pitch with a runner on.
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That's a great point on priority on throwing vs framing.
On Lester, I think all of his numbers declined because his fastball, and his confidence therein, declined. Weaker fastball, the fastball mistakes are more likely to get hammered. Weaker fastball, contrast with curve reduces, and less likely to get away with the hanging curves. Weaker stuff makes him more scared of mistakes over the plate and makes him want to nibble more, so the walks rise. Pitch count especially, because even when he does get ahead, he's less confident to put a guy away with another strike, and more likely to nibble and hope for a chase swing. He's an artist, but it's just harder when the fastball is 91.1 versus 92.1 in 2016, or 93.7 back in 2009. Will be interesting to see whether the fastball reduction was part of WS hangover, and he'll get some back this year? Or if it's age, and he'll be the same, or lose a little more besides?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P#pitchtype
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...Strike throwing shouldn't matter was umps and pitchers are corrected for. So if Arreita is hard to catch for instance there is less or no penalty vs say Hendricks giving you less of a bonus. Willson does stab at the ball to much and that costs strikes, but Lester/Arrieta are so bad at holding on runners you can't always try and frame a pitch with a runner on.
I know it's not supposed to matter, and the system is supposed to be too smart for that.
Still, I can't help but think that if you call for an inside fastball with Hendricks, and it's 3 inches off target, it's pretty easy to adjust the glove, to stay still, and to pull it back into the zone. But if you call for the same pitch but Rondon throws it 3 inches off the outside, wouldn't it be a lot harder to get the glove over there and pull it in? Lucky to stab it at all, and in process of lunging to grab it then momentum pulls the glove further outside? Good framers have a knack for pulling balls into the plate; that just seems harder with sharp breaking balls breaking away from the plate, or fastballs that are far off target.
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Contreras' framing numbers aren't bad because of the movement on Jake's pitches or a staff that's bad at holding runners on - they're bad because he sucks at framing. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Will he get better with time? He could - some guys do (a little - most don't) but he's at least good at a lot of other things. Criticizing Contreras over one element of his game isn't the same as arguing he's not a good player and shouldn't be treated as a third rail.
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Willson is a bad bad man.
Im sure even Kate Upton has a flaw.
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Contreras' framing numbers are... bad because he sucks at framing. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar...
Yeah, that seems the most straightforward perspective.
But how on earth did he come out as +4.3 in 2016, well above average? A non-reproducible fluke of some kind?
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You've seen him catch - again, doesn't that seem like the most likely scenario?
Also, relatively small sample size in '16 - started 41 games at C.
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Pitch framing stabilization occurs rather quickly just do the sheer number of pitches caught in a game.
Contreras can be horrible at framing, but when he is quite and not set up too far outside he can be good.
Pitch framing is defiantly a skill that can be taught and improved on, so he can get better. The issue is that you have to be quiet behind the plate and he needs to set up better as well. That is going to cost him in the throwing game and picking off runners.
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Pitch framing stabilization occurs rather quickly just do the sheer number of pitches caught in a game.
Contreras can be horrible at framing, but when he is quite and not set up too far outside he can be good.
Pitch framing is defiantly a skill that can be taught and improved on, so he can get better. The issue is that you have to be quiet behind the plate and he needs to set up better as well. That is going to cost him in the throwing game and picking off runners.
So if he's "quite" and "defiant" he can improve?
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Someday I will have a post without spelling errors. Someday.
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Then where the fun be?
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Automate the strike zone and put an end to this pitch framing horseshit.
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Ill agree with that.
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Automate the strike zone and put an end to this pitch framing horseshit.
Amen to that.
I'd also agree with this statement even if the first five words weren't included.
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http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den
Suggests that using small-sample 2017 defensive metrics, Happ scored better in center than Almora.
Not sure anybody really believes he's good or as good. But maybe kinda anti-awful?
Will be interesting to see how often Almora sits against RHP, and how often it's Heyward versus Happ who takes his place in center. When Almora sits versus RHP, I can see three ways to get two lefties in CF/RF:
1. Heyward center/Zobrist right
2. Heyward center/Happ right
3. Happ center/Heyward right
If Maddon wants Zo replacing Almora, Heyward has to play center. But if it's Happ and Heyward, probably makes best sense to leave Heyward in right where he's really good, and put Happ in center which is the easier position to play.
(Heh heh, obviously also possible if Zo bounces back and Heyward is auto-out that Maddon might at times play Scwarber-Happ-Zobrist even versus a RHP, and just bench Heyward for defensive-replacement purposes later.)
I'm also hoping that Happ will improve in LF and RF. Those are obviously harder spots to pick up; the foul walls add difficulty, fly balls get to the wall more easily, the lighting in RF is tough, and in general the spin and slice on balls hit opposite field can be much more difficult than in center. But the guy really doesn't have much LF/OF experience. Hopefully he'll improve there with time and practice.
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Whether or not Happ can sustain, or perhaps improve somewhat, really could matter an awful lot. All those 400+ PA of Jon Jay, if Happ goes Schwarber and relapses to being a .200 hitter, that's one thing. Versus being able to sustain hitting .250 and >.800, or perhaps even improving and blossomed into a .275 hitter without loss of power, that's going to be huge.
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If there's one good thing that's come from all this research into pitch framing, hopefully it will be that baseball's higher ups will notice all this effort that's going into manipulating umpires and realize this is not a healthy thing for baseball and get around to automating the zone.
Really it isn't a healthy thing for baseball in general either that a great young catching talent like Contreras is getting bemoaned because he seemingly forgot how to frame pitches in 2017. The guy should be viewed as a budding star and should be putting his efforts towards being an even better hitter, even better defensive catcher, etc. instead of worrying that he wasn't good enough at manipulating umpires last season. That's not healthy for the sport if otherwise all around talented catchers might have to move from the position, might have to be benched, or might have to focus their efforts on pitch framing at the expense of hitting or throwing runners out because of bad pitch framing metrics. Imagine if pitch framing metrics back in the 90's said Mike Piazza was a bad framer or Johnny Bench was a bad framer in the 70's. We might be losing otherwise all-time great Hall of Fame players from the position because of that.
I felt like making a post about how pitch framing is a metric that doesn't make the game better or doesn't make the game more enjoyable to watch, but if it leads to automating the strike zone, I'll take that back.
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I can remember when replay after replay BEFORE calls could be reversed showed how good the umpires were. The umpires were right and replay proved it over 95% of the time. Then instant replay became a rule and now there seems to be one or two calls a GAME that are reversed because of replay. Replay has also caused the game to change because infielders frequently get an out merely for holding their glove on runners for that almost imperceptible moment when he comes off the bag to dust himself off. Umpires seemingly have adopted the same attitude that the NFL officials have...I'll call it and if I'm wrong, replay will make it right. The pressure to get it right is no longer present. After throwing the thumb, the ump may think to himself, not sure about that one, but replay will correct it. Not good.
As far as automated strikes, today in a game that is 15-1, late innings, umpires may invoke an unspoken mercy rule and call more borderline pitches strikes to end the damb thing, but an automated system won't. Be prepared to sit another 20 minutes during a blowout.
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I'm beginning to think that the Cubs should try to move Zobrist. That would open up the opportunity to use Happ regularly in multiple positions while giving the large majority of starts in CF and at 2B to Almora and Baez. The increased development this allows for Almora, Baez, and Happ more than outweighs the possibility that Zobrist would have a big comeback year, IMO.
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No real surprise that the back end of the Zobrist contract is feeling albatross-y, but I think he's got a no-trade. Plus he's the World Series hero. I think it would be tough to try to move him, even if would make more sense going forward. Maybe one of those things (like trading Gleyber Torres) that hurts, but you look at and say "yep, but that was the price of winning the World Series."
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I don't see the need there, P2. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2017.shtml
Happ already got 413 PA, Almora 323, Zobrist 496, and Jay 433. Splitting up Jay's AB will be more than Almora and Happ alone can handle, they can't take Zobrists also. (I think La Stella will need to absorb more.) With Jay gone, there will be plenty of AB's to go around to anybody who's healthy and hitting, I think.
That was in a season when they were pretty lucky in terms of long-term DL injuries. Just Russell and Contreras? (Maybe Zo should have gone on DL and gotten healthy instead of playing through, but he still racked up 496 PA....)
Heh heh, I can see value in unloading Zo not so much to free AB's, but to clear $29/2; or perhaps if you figure he's too old to hit enough to be useful.....
I also think with Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Heyward, Baez, Heyward, Cubs have a lot of guys who are probably kind of hot-and-cold guys, and with matchup vulnerabilities. Want to keep some depth so you can depend less on guys when they're cold, or facing a bad pitching matchup, or are dinged up.
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I could easily see where of the 10 non-catchers, where Zobrist might kind of settle at the back of the line. Ten guys covering 7 spots, not sure Zo's bat really justifies giving him more starts than Happ or Almora, or perhaps La Stella either?
Heh heh, maybe of those 10 guys, big FA's Heyward and Zo would be 9th and 10th on the list, in terms of which names you want to see in a starting lineup?
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Good points, craig. The issue for me is how to get Almora more playing time without eating into the ABs for Happ or Baez. It will probably require fewer starts for Zobrist (he had almost 500 PAs last season). It would help a lot if Zobrist would rebound from his terrible season vs. LHP. That would give him plenty of time at corner OF vs. tough LH pitchers. Over half his ABs last year came at 2B, and I think that number needs to drop.
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Ben Zobrist's contract status
4 years/$56M (2016-19)
- signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/9/15
- $2M signing bonus
- 16:$10M, 17:$16M, 18:$16M, 19:$12M
- full no-trade protection for 2016-18
- limited no-trade protection for 2019 (may block deals to 8 clubs)
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Is this the time to point out that Maddon loves the guy and all the stats you quote won't mean diddle to Joe.
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No way Zobrist is getting traded. Look elsewhere for roster fixes.
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Good points, craig. The issue for me is how to get Almora more playing time without eating into the ABs for Happ or Baez. It will probably require fewer starts for Zobrist (he had almost 500 PAs last season). It would help a lot if Zobrist would rebound from his terrible season vs. LHP. That would give him plenty of time at corner OF vs. tough LH pitchers. Over half his ABs last year came at 2B, and I think that number needs to drop.
Yes, good points, I agree on all of them.
1. **Very** desirable that Zobrist rebounds vs LHP. Need that to lift starts from Heyward and Schwarber vs lefties. (*IF* both Zo and Happ well vs LHP, you could start Happ-Almora-Zo, and have Rizzo-only-lefty lineup. With La Stella, Heyward, and Schwarber on bench.)
2. Agree that Zobrist could cut way back at 2B. More for Baez, and perhaps also more for La Stella? (If Heyward is status quo or worse, I could see more starts for Tommy at 2B, with Baez at 3rd and Bryant in OF.)
3. I just think Zo should probably cut back altogether, unless his hitting picks up a lot. If he got "only" 350 PA, (which is still a lot for a bench guy), then taking 150 from him and 430 from Jay and you've got 580 extras to divvy up between Almora, Happ, and Baez. No worries about Almora or Happ getting blocked.
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Tommy La Stella is an excellent pinch hitter. Ben Zobrist, despite his age, is better a better at 2B than La Stella.
I really think a lot of Zobrist's issues with hitting last year was due to the wrist injury and it wouldn't shock me if he hits lead off and plays in RF fairly often, unless Heyward somehow remembers how to not be Darwin Barney on offense.
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Agree, TLS is the worse than Zo defensively; probably worse than Happ too.
Think he's so good a PH because he's just a very good hitter. Had 3rd best OPS on team last year (Rizz, Bryant).
If Zo and the other guys are all hitting, and I hope they do, then can afford to go defense-over-offense at 2B (and RF, CF, etc.) No reason for TLS to get many starts if Zo and Heyward and Almora and Happ and Russell and Baez are all hitting well.
If Zo/Heyward/Schwarber are all hitting as well or better than TLS, then it's probably going to be a really good year.
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I will be very, very disappointed if Schwarber isn't a better offensive player in 2018 than La Stella.
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TLS was .861 OPS last year. That may have been a small-sample career year fluke, I get that. But I'm not actually so sure it was....
Put it this way: ***IF*** TLS reproduces another .861 OPS, and **IF** Schwarber out-produces that, we will all be VERY happy.
And **IF** TLS is posting .861, but Zobrist still gets a million starts ahead of TLS, I'm guessing that won't happen unless Zobrist's OPS is a lot higher than the .693 from last year. An extra .150+ in OPS can at least begin to steal some starts from a better fielder. Maybe if the difference is <.100, not so much.
Same with Heyward, if La Stella is firing it up at .861, but Heyward is still starting all the time, that might mean that somehow Heyward is hanging out north of .700, perhaps even north of .730. Which would be really nice.
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Craig, La Stella's career OPS is .721. If you think it's likely he'll repeat .861, great - I don't. But there's a hell of a lot of wiggle room north of that career OPS for me to still be disappointed if Schwarber doesn't beat it.
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I also think with Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Heyward, Baez, Heyward, Cubs have a lot of guys who are probably kind of hot-and-cold guys, and with matchup vulnerabilities. Want to keep some depth so you can depend less on guys when they're cold, or facing a bad pitching matchup, or are dinged up.
Obviously Heyward is twice as streaky as the others.....
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I'm also hoping that Happ will improve in LF and RF. Those are obviously harder spots to pick up; the foul walls add difficulty, fly balls get to the wall more easily, the lighting in RF is tough, and in general the spin and slice on balls hit opposite field can be much more difficult than in center. But the guy really doesn't have much LF/OF experience. Hopefully he'll improve there with time and practice.
Has anyone seen anything on whether Happ is doing anything this offseason to work on his OF defense?
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Dont expect Theo and Jed to spend much more on the pen. A starter on the other hand...
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/12/29/wade-davis-exit-expected-cubs-jake-arrieta-free-agency/
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"Cubs remain in the conversation to re-sign Arrieta, sources said."
Mentions Darvish, Cobb and Arrieta, but does not include Lynn in that group.
I don't imagine Levine really has much more info than you or I do, though.
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Jon Heyman has taken a look at all 30 teams
CHICAGO CUBS
- They are said to have made a spirited attempt to trade for Machado – though it couldn’t be confirmed that all of Russell, Almora and Montgomery were offered. Montgomery was in the mix, and it is apparent Machado would have taken Russell’s shortstop spot, so he may well have been, too. Russell had a rough year last year.
- The Cubs’ interest and meeting with Yu Darvish seemed to come after hearing what they saw as a high asking price from Alex Cobb. Cobb has seemed like the logical fit for the Cubs since he has strong connections to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, and perhaps that will still work. But the Cubs, as is wise, are considering everything. Makes sense, if Darvish was willing to come for a similar price (or even a bit more), that might be the better deal.
- One rival exec speculated that the Cubs are probably the favorite for Bryce Harper in a year, noting that he and Kris Bryant are great friends, and also that “their wives are great friends.” That certainly would give the Cubs quite a righty-lefty combo for years.
- The Cubs still seem to believe strongly in Kyle Schwarber, who has been putting himself through quite the workout regimen this winter in hopes of avoiding a second straight slow start. With his dedication, it is hard to see him as anything but a star.
https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-astros-targeting-long-term-catcher/
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Jon Heyman has taken a look at all 30 teams
CHICAGO CUBS
- One rival exec speculated that the Cubs are probably the favorite for Bryce Harper in a year, noting that he and Kris Bryant are great friends, and also that “their wives are great friends.” That certainly would give the Cubs quite a righty-lefty combo for years.
How many athletes sign lucrative deals based on their and their wives' friendships?
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Like UT fans chasing Jon Gruden.
Harper may very well end up a Cub but it's far from already decided and who do we decide to let walk if we invest 300 million in Harper?
Rizzo?
I think Ill pass.
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How many athletes sign lucrative deals based on their and their wives' friendships?
The ones that want regular nookie.
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Harper may very well end up a Cub but it's far from already decided and who do we decide to let walk if we invest 300 million in Harper?
It'll be closer to $500 million than $300 million. I'm guessing something like 12 years, $450 million. He may get half a billion dollars if the Yankees and Dodgers go after him.
I'd love it if the Cubs had Harper...but even as good as he is, the price tag seems like it's going to be prohibitive. I'm starting to wonder if blowing off next offseason and going all in this year (when there isn't much competition for the top players) might be a good idea. The Yankees and Dodgers are preparing to go over the luxury tax next year, so they're not real factors this year. Sign Darvish, who doesn't have many serious suitors. Trade for Yelich (his contract may have the most surplus value in the game right now). Sign Reed, a backup catcher, and whoever else is needed to fill the bench after the Yelich trade. Go over the luxury tax threshold this offseason, and then try to figure out how to dump Zobrist and/or Heyward to get back under next year.
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Harper is going to get opt outs, so he might be signing a 12 year contract, but it will likely me a 2-4 year deal so he can get another shot at free agency.
Not that I think the Marlins are a well run team, but it makes sense for them to trade for prospects if they are going to tear it down. The Cubs would have to trade off the major league roster and I can’t see that helping the Marlins with PR.
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Heyward got opt outs too. Sometimes opt outs don't work out like you expect.
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Jon Heyman has taken a look at all 30 teams
CHICAGO CUBS
- They are said to have made a spirited attempt to trade for Machado – though it couldn’t be confirmed that all of Russell, Almora and Montgomery were offered. Montgomery was in the mix, and it is apparent Machado would have taken Russell’s shortstop spot, so he may well have been, too. Russell had a rough year last year.
- The Cubs’ interest and meeting with Yu Darvish seemed to come after hearing what they saw as a high asking price from Alex Cobb. Cobb has seemed like the logical fit for the Cubs since he has strong connections to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, and perhaps that will still work. But the Cubs, as is wise, are considering everything. Makes sense, if Darvish was willing to come for a similar price (or even a bit more), that might be the better deal.
- One rival exec speculated that the Cubs are probably the favorite for Bryce Harper in a year, noting that he and Kris Bryant are great friends, and also that “their wives are great friends.” That certainly would give the Cubs quite a righty-lefty combo for years.
- The Cubs still seem to believe strongly in Kyle Schwarber, who has been putting himself through quite the workout regimen this winter in hopes of avoiding a second straight slow start. With his dedication, it is hard to see him as anything but a star.
https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-astros-targeting-long-term-catcher/
I've been wondering lately whether Jon Heyman is a New York version of Phil Rogers.
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I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the amount of money we are imagining Theocracy would spend on Harper when they have Bryant, Rizzo, and a host of others to take care of in the next few years. We'll end up with a core of 4 or 5 super players with the other roster spots filled with AAAA players. Can't win with that. If Harper ends up with the Cubs, I'm guessing he will have to make some adjustments to his demands.
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It would not be hard to see him and the Cubs agree to a one or two year deal.
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You have to remember new cable deal is coming that will significantly increase the amount of money coming to the Cubs.
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Yeah, but if the luxury tax under the new CBA is going to function as a harder cap than it has in the past (which seems to be the case so far), having the extra money won't mean as much.
I don't see how the Cubs (or any team but maybe the Dodgers and Yankees) could afford both Bryant and Harper once Bryant reaches free agency. If they sign Harper, I think that means that Bryant is most likely gone in four years. Maybe Rizzo too...but he'll be 32 years old when he hits free agency, so his leaving would probably be more of a baseball decision.
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As long as you remain below $40 million above I don’t think it will matter. The Cubs will have decisions even without Harper.
The Yankees have wanted to reset forever, but they will likely be over for a long no time after this.
I don’t think the Dodgers are in as good of shape financially. They were rumors that they were having issues with debt and the luxury tax.
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I say go for it while you can if Harper will sign. I could be wrong here but I think wives being friends is a bigger deal than Harper and Bryant being friends. Future theo and future Jed can work things out then.
I'm even ok with Manny trade myself if Russell is majority of price. Still could have a future mi duo of Baez-Happ that would be solid.
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Perhaps not, but I would be afraid Machado at SS would be brutal.
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I wouldnt be afraid to move Russell in the right deal and I doubt Theo and Jed are either.
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My issue with a Machado trade is it makes upgrading the rotation impossible. Machado, if he costs Russell, takes away the ability to trade for a pitcher and his $17 million salary eliminates most of the FA pitchers, besides the fact that it would be a huge overpay.
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Happy New Year, Cubs friends! Looking forward to a fun and interesting season, and still some improvements before the season starts.
Just the one more starting pitcher to go?
Or also still one more reliever?
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Mixed feelings on the reliever front. Unless I'm forgetting, we're sitting with just MOntgomery and Wilson as lefties, right?
1. Bad: That seems thin. What if Wilson's lost his confidence and does NOT come back well? Then super thin. And what if Montgomery ends up needing to start some games? That seems like a really vulnerable situation, lacking in contingency-planning.
Theo and Hoyer have a history of selling the farm for short-term relievers. For the moment they've got nothing to sell, but I'm reluctant to set up a situation where the odds are good that come July, they're positioning themselves to do it once again.
2. For these reasons, I think paying a market price, or perhaps above fair-market price, to bring in Duensing or Tony Watson might make some sense. Neither will be budget-busters, so the cost now, a few $, might be much preferable to the cost in July.
3. I could see one advantage in NOT getting a 3rd lefty. Maddon is a prolific mid-inning switcher. But if he has only two lefties, I wonder if he may necessarily do more full-inning usage? Perhaps that will make for faster, funner games for me the fan. But more importantly, perhaps that will reduce the wear on the pen arms, and perhaps over the course of the season multiple guys will emerge as trustworthy. And maybe some guys will develop more confidence.
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I'm on board with bringing Duensing back.
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Another lefty reliever would be nice. But Watson's peripherals have gone in a bad direction the last two years, and Duensing was barely holding on to an MLB career from 2014-2016. Either would be good if they would take something like a 1 year, $4-$5 million deal. But if they're demanding much more than that, they're probably not worth it.
I think the Cubs should probably hold off on more bullpen acquisitions until they figure out what they're doing with the rest of the team. The current bullpen is fine--Fangraphs has them projected as the 5th best bullpen in baseball by fWAR already, and they're half a win from #2 behind the Yankees. Sign Darvish or Cobb, and figure out if Yelich or Machado is possible before committing more money to the bullpen.
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Agree, Duensing and Watson aren't worth huge deals.
Also agree that waiting and seeing what you end up doing with rotation might kind of impact what resources you have left.
I just don't want to be trading the two best prospects in an already terrible farm for Watson-equivalent come July!
Yelich, Machado, not happening. Don't think the stuff we've got to offer for Yelich can compete. A system has only so many resources; I think they've already expended so many of them to get Chapman, Davis, Wilson, and Quintana, that we can't trade for good-value guys for at least a while.
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Duensing was a very pleasant surprise, no question. But he seems like the very definition of a reliever who's likely to see a reversion in 2018, and I don't think he's going to be worth whatever premium his unsustainable 2017 places on his price. Better to try and find the next Duensing than overpay for the last one. You can't count on guys like that, but they're nice to have as contingency plans - as Duensing showed.
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I totally get the idea of reliever unpredictability/inconsistency. If you pay a guy well based on last year, it might be money down the drain; and it's better value to add some low-priced guy who's ready to be the next Duensing or Morrow.
Brandon Morrow is a classic. Early last summer he's a 32-year-old JAG with a 7.20 ERA and an 0-5 record in AAA; now he's the closer for the contending Cubs?
I love the idea of finding the bargain rather than overpaying for a guy who regresses. But the problem is that the Cubs have two discretionary bullpen spots left. Morrow-Cishek-Strop-Edwards-Montgomery-Wilson are locked in. I assume one is for a RHP (the Grimm/Maples/Butler spot), the other for a LHP.
Somewhere in baseball there's going to a couple of next-Duensings that turn up. Maybe your best chance to get the next Duensing is to count on one of
Zastryzny, Randy Rosario, or Dario Alvarez? And maybe the best way to get the next Morrow is to trust one of Grimm/Maples/Butler to emerge. But not sure Zastryzny/Rosario/Alvarez or Grimm/Butler give great odds.
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I think Grimm may have lost his place in line. He's had umpteen opportunities to show what he can do and each time we get excited, he takes two steps back. Butler may forever be that AAAA pitcher we call up to absorb innings when we have an SP hurt. Montgomery, I don't believe, is a lock. He may be heading out.
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Agree on grimm, Curt. Grimm just can't locate any of his pitches. Hard to be very optimistic that he's going to be a guy you want.
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Levine mentions Yelich and Lorenzo Cain as potential Cubs targets after they get starting pitching figured out:
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/02/cubs-2018-needs-additions-arrieta-darvish-cobb-yelich/
Beyond pitching, the Cubs could look to add another position player if it’s an ideal fit. The Marlins have set out on a salary-dumping course and may look to trade outfielder Christian Yelich, who has four years and $43.25 million left on his contract and then a $15-million team option or a $1.25 million buyout for 2022. Yelich, 26, hit .282 with 18 homers, 81 RBIs and an .807 OPS in 156 games in 2017. He could potentially fill the lead-off spot for the Cubs, boasting a career .369 on-base percentage.
If the Cubs wanted to obtain Yelich, it’s almost certain that outfielder Albert Almora Jr. would be sent back to the Marlins as part of the package. Almora, 23, is under team control for five more seasons.
Another name to keep an eye on is free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, who could also potentially fill the lead-off role. Cain, who turns 32 in April, has a career .342 on-base percentage, including a career-best .363 mark in 2017.
Both Yelich and Cain are considered quality defensive players and have 20-stolen base potential.
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Ill gladly take either one even if Yelich does cost Almora and Russell.
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Buying a guy whose value is largely based on speed (Cain) just when he's due to begin a steep decline seems like a real bad idea to me. Unless he's willing to sign a 2-year deal (which I assume he's not) I'd steer clear of that minefield.
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Yeah, Cain only makes sense on a shorter term deal. But if his market isn't what he expected and he ends up signing a 2 year deal, he wouldn't be a bad fit.
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I think Grimm may have lost his place in line. He's had umpteen opportunities to show what he can do and each time we get excited, he takes two steps back. Butler may forever be that AAAA pitcher we call up to absorb innings when we have an SP hurt. Montgomery, I don't believe, is a lock. He may be heading out.
I don't see why Montgomery would be heading out, unless of course, there is an unexpected great offer. But the front office seems to love him in what they see is his role - swing starter/reliever. Where would they get someone better for a lower price?
Personally, I would rather use him as the fifth starter, and let Butler or even Grimm compete for the swing man.
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Yelich is not going to come in a trade headlined by Almora. And I sure wouldn't want to give Almora and someone better than Almora off the current roster. I don't see either center field or leadoff as pressing needs for this team.
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I disagree--I think CF is a pretty big need. I think Almora is a platoon player long term, and I don't think Happ can handle CF defensively. I've also said several times that I think lengthening the reliable part of the lineup beyond just Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras is important--they need to replace some of what they lost when Fowler left and Zobrist suddenly aged. It doesn't necessarily have to be leadoff, but a high OBP guy at the top of the lineup fits best.
But more than just filling a need, I think Yelich is the type of player who is so underpaid for the value that he provides that you can't pass up making a serious attempt at trading for him when he's available. He's a fairly safe 4-5 fWAR player in the prime of his career, and he's getting paid like a 1-2 win guy for the next five seasons. Getting that kind of cheap production out of CF would help the bad contract in RF hurt a lot less.
Like others here, I do have doubts that the Cubs have the right players to get Yelich. But as long as the Marlins are discussing trades, the Cubs need to be actively trying to get him.
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How reliable was the Astros offense last season? In the 2016 playoffs how many times did Fowler and Zobrist have a greater than .340 OBP in a series (NLDS, NLCS, WS) combined? How often was it below .300? Below .200?
Almora had a higher hard contact against right handed pitching than lefties last year. He also had a 10% IFBB against righties vs 0% against lefties. (Soft contact % was fractionally lower vs righties last year). It will be interesting to see if the IFBB% was flukey last year. I’ve always maintained that Almora is underrated on this board.
Almora being a 2-3 WAR player making less than $1 million helps the Cubs more than Yelich. I like Yelich. He’s a great player, but the acquisition cost is too great for what Happ/Almora can provide in CF for 1/8 the cost of Yelich’s AAV.
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I don't see why Montgomery would be heading out, unless of course, there is an unexpected great offer. But the front office seems to love him in what they see is his role - swing starter/reliever. Where would they get someone better for a lower price?
Personally, I would rather use him as the fifth starter, and let Butler or even Grimm compete for the swing man.
Damb. I had hoped you would be smarter in 2018.
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Almora had a higher hard contact against right handed pitching than lefties last year. He also had a 10% IFBB against righties vs 0% against lefties. (Soft contact % was fractionally lower vs righties last year). It will be interesting to see if the IFBB% was flukey last year. I’ve always maintained that Almora is underrated on this board.
And I've always maintained Almora is overrated on this board. Almora has never really hit above A ball. He was mediocre at best in AA and AAA, and has been league average-ish at the MLB level. But his MLB starts have come more often against LHP, and most of his starts against RHP come against guys who get hit by righties. He doesn't walk. His defense hasn't been as advertised at the MLB level. You can cite his hard hit rate all you want...but his overall results over the last 4 full seasons point to him being an average hitter at best.
Almora being a 2-3 WAR player making less than $1 million helps the Cubs more than Yelich. I like Yelich. He’s a great player, but the acquisition cost is too great for what Happ/Almora can provide in CF for 1/8 the cost of Yelich’s AAV.
Almora was a 1.2 fWAR player in 2017 (and a 1.0 rWAR player). Steamer projects him to be a 1.1 WAR player in 2019. If he took everyday ABs, maybe he'd boost his WAR some...but he'd also be facing tougher RHP pitchers, which would probably drag his WAR down. I think you're dreaming if you think a 2-3 WAR season is likely. And even if a 2 WAR season was likely, I'd say paying the extra $6 million in 2018 for a 4 win player would be worth it.
I think Almora is the next Reed Johnson. That's a good major league player. He can build a good career starting for third/fourth place teams and platooning for contenders. The Cubs aren't a third place team, and everyday players are preferable to platoons.
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I think it's a mistake to underestimate Almora. The only area where Yelich is clearly better is in BB% and therefore in OBP. Almora is as good as Yelich defensively and has at least as much power. Almora has only 440 PAs compared to Yelich's 2800+. Almora's OBP% improved from .308 his rookie season to .338 last year. Like Almora, Yelich has a severe split differential although in his case he is much weaker vs. LH pitching which is not as serious a flaw. Almora has proved himself to be a smart player with good baseball instincts. Almora has a lot of room to grow whereas Yelich has probably reached his ceiling (which is excellent offensively with an OBP that has never dipped below .360). There's no doubt that I would prefer to have Yelich right now, and that he would fill a big need at the top of our order. If Miami wants to swap Yelich for Almora for business purposes, I'm in. But I'm not giving up much else.
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Almora is sorely underrated by some on this board.
Albert wants playing time!
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Almora is sorely underrated by some on this board.
Albert wants playing time!
I agree. Besides the walks I think he can be very comparable to Yellich.
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Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.
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I don't believe that Almora will be a superstar. But I think he will be a very good player, and I would hate to give up a lot to move up from Almora to Yelich (who I agree is better). I would certainly not trade Baez, Russell, or Happ in order to get Yelich. And if we still had Jiminez and Cease in our system, I would not trade them for Yelich. The potential improvement just isn't there, in my opinion.
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Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.
No, I would not offer that for Arrieta. Darvish, yes.
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No, I would not offer that for Arrieta. Darvish, yes.
This is the tough place for a GM. You want to win.
So, you say no to $110/4 for Arrieta.
Darvish says no to that offer from you.
Maybe you also don't like to pay whatever Cobb or Lynn want.
So, then what do you do? Go with Montgomery? Go and sign John Lackey?
It's the trouble of having to choose between variably problematic options.
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I don't believe that Almora will be a superstar. But I think he will be a very good player, and I would hate to give up a lot to move up from Almora to Yelich (who I agree is better). I would certainly not trade Baez, Russell, or Happ in order to get Yelich. And if we still had Jiminez and Cease in our system, I would not trade them for Yelich. The potential improvement just isn't there, in my opinion.
Good grief. You're probably still upset about the trades for Heredia and the other fool. ;)
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Almora was a 1.2 fWAR player in 2017 (and a 1.0 rWAR player). Steamer projects him to be a 1.1 WAR player in 2019. If he took everyday ABs, maybe he'd boost his WAR some...but he'd also be facing tougher RHP pitchers, which would probably drag his WAR down. I think you're dreaming if you think a 2-3 WAR season is likely. And even if a 2 WAR season was likely, I'd say paying the extra $6 million in 2018 for a 4 win player would be worth it.
I think Almora is the next Reed Johnson. That's a good major league player. He can build a good career starting for third/fourth place teams and platooning for contenders. The Cubs aren't a third place team, and everyday players are preferable to platoons.
There's a lot to unpack in here, but Almora put up 1.2 fWAR in 323 PA. I think the defensive metrics are also underselling his defense at this point, but in 836 innings in CF he has a UZR/150 of 5.7. That would have given him a higher ranking last year than Jackie Bradley Jr, Inciarte and Lorenzo Cain last year. So his defense hasn't really been that bad.
Put let's look at what the defense would get you over 600 PA. Almora had a wRC+ of 81 against RHP last year. Kevin Pillar had a wRC+ of 85 last year and he had a UZR/150 of 7.4. That type of offense and defense was equal to 1.9 fWAR last year. Now Pillar had a wRC+ of 148 against lefties and 64 against righties, so he is more split prone than Almora. The year before when Pillar had a wRC+ of 81 and a UZR/150 of 26.3 he was worth 3.3 fWAR. Almora's spring speed last year was 27.7 to Pillar's 27.9 mph so the speed is similar. So it isn't hard to get to 2 WAR with bad offense and slightly above average defense. Put up some excellent defensive numbers and you have a 3 WAR player. Jackie Bradley Jr had a wRC+ of 90 and was worth 2.3 fWAR is another example.
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Good grief. You're probably still upset about the trades for Heredia and the other fool. ;)
Karchner, don't ever forget.
Another Cubs rumor from yesterday was that they'd be willing to go 4 years, $110 million on Arrieta. What would people here think of that? I'm torn--four years is right, but the $27.5 AAV is kind of scary given his decline the last two years.
That would get him off the books the same time as Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Schwarber, Baez and Montgomery. I think that is more important to the Cubs than the AAV.
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This is the tough place for a GM. You want to win.
So, you say no to $110/4 for Arrieta.
Darvish says no to that offer from you.
Maybe you also don't like to pay whatever Cobb or Lynn want.
So, then what do you do? Go with Montgomery? Go and sign John Lackey?
It's the trouble of having to choose between variably problematic options.
Yes, no one ever said this was easy. If none of your targets are coming in at what you consider acceptable levels, you have to make a choice between several seemingly bad choices. Too much AMV for Jake? Too many years for Yu? Too much of both for mediocrity with Cobb? Roll the dice on Monty? This is why Theo gets paid so much money - to look at the risk-reward on a bunch of sweaty-palm options and pick the most favorable one.
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Jake at 5/120M
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Is that a report?
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No, just my offer.
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Is that a report?
Goc, I hope not.
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This guy could be a sleeper:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/03/cubs-sign-right-hander-ryan-weber-to-a-minor-league-deal/
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https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/01/03/levine-cubs-cards-compete-arrieta-closer-yelich-cain-real-possibilities-well/
Interesting read. Here is the Yelich/Cain stuff.
“I think they really need a center fielder. I don’t believe that Joe (Maddon) believes that (Albert) Almora is an everyday center fielder. He’s a good outfielder, he’s a good hitter against left-handers, but he didn’t have quite enough at-bats against right-handers and I don’t think Joe trust him against right handers. Can he get better? I don’t know, but I just believe that they’re gonna trade for either a guy like (Christian) Yelich or sign a free agent like (Lorenzo) Cain."
That is a quote from Levine. It sounds a lot more like what Levine thinks they should do vs what he is hearing, at least to me.
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That is a quote from Levine. It sounds a lot more like what Levine thinks they should do vs what he is hearing, at least to me.
I think it's some of both. Yesterday's article sounded like there was some speculation on Levine's part too. But I would guess he's not just making up the idea that Maddon doesn't really trust Almora. He may not be the best beat reporter, but he's not in the business of spreading fake rumors. So maybe the "the Cubs should trade for Yelich or sign Cain" is more his opinion, while "Maddon isn't really excited about Almora and the Cubs could try to do something about it" was something he heard from a source.
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... while "Maddon isn't really excited about Almora and the Cubs could try to do something about it" was something he heard from a source.
Or something he simply concluded from observation, as some also have here.
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This guy could be a sleeper:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/03/cubs-sign-right-hander-ryan-weber-to-a-minor-league-deal/
Easy to like signings like this, since they cost almost nothing compared to the total payroll.
The guy has parts of three seasons in AAA, for a total of 167 innings there, with an ERA of 1.16 and a WHIP of 1.030, and a walk rat of 1.5/9.
For a team which supposedly is going to be more concerned with pitchers who throw strikes in 2018, I think there is a very good chance we will see some of him in Wrigley.
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Dylan Floro with a slower fastball.
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Dylan Floro with a slower fastball.
In parts of three seasons in AAA, for a total of 167 innings there, Ryan has an ERA of 1.16 and a WHIP of 1.030, and a walk rate of 1.5/9 In 2017 his AAA ERA was 0.85 in 32 innings with a WHIP of .758.
In parts of three seasons in AAA, Floro threw 243 innings for an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.343, and a walk rate of 1.5/9.
???????
I think you may be giving a bit too much emphasis on those identical walk rates when you draw that comparison.
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Floro 5.11 ERA, 17.1% K%, 6% BB% in the majors
Weber 5.00 ERA, 12.4% K%, 6.1 BB% in the majors
In AAA 2015 Weber had a 86.8% LOB% and a .234 BABIP, 2016 a 2.3% HR/FB, 2017 93.2% LOB% with a .207 BABIP underlying those ERA and WHIPs. If he could translate that the majors he might have a chance.
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Floro has a MLB WHIP of 1.824; Weber 1.244.
But with Floro we are taking about a total of 25 innings and with Weber only 68.
Forgive me for thinking the significantly larger AAA samples are more meaningful.
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Both of these guys are ham-n-eggers with a slight chance to be meaningful MLB contributors. Their chance depends much more on their heart and their ability to execute pitches than it does on their AAA or MLB stats to date.
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Weber has never broken 100 IP in 1 season in AAA or 200 innings in total so no neither sample is large enough to be better.
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Mooney signed on with the Athletic and will cover the Cubs with Sharma.
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Looks like all the good baseball writers are consolidating at The Athletic.
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I got a year subscription for $24. They run deals all the time.
Rosenthal had a blurb about the Padres asking about Baez and the cost was too high.
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Padres beat writer Dennis Lin has more on the Baez/Padres thing:
Dennis Lin @sdutdennislin
.@Ken_Rosenthal mentioned the Padres’ balking at the asking price for Javier Baez last month. Of note: The Cubs would have wanted more besides Lamet or Perdomo. Brad Hand likely was discussed. SD has had interest in Baez, who can play shortstop and move around the infield.
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Lamet has a very good young arm.
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Probably a reliever in the long run. Basically a two-pitch guy.
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To be clear, Rosenthal mentioned the Padres asked on Baez around the winter meetings (I'm assuming that means before they acquired Galvis). So I doubt there is any chance of it happening at this point.
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Probably come March, the Cubs won't have made any trades. FA, and that's it for roster changes.
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Probably come March, the Cubs won't have made any trades. FA, and that's it for roster changes.
Are you meaning you think they're done for the offseason? Because I don't think that's the case.
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I took it to mean free agents will be signed, but not a big trade.
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Correct.
1. They'll sign some FA pitcher from the DArvish/Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn group.
2. Sign a LHP.
3. Maybe add a vet catcher.
That's all they'll do, other than rehab/non-roster guys.
No trades.
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I think Craig is pretty spot on though I would drop Lynn from the conversation.
I do think it is possible that there will be a big trade that includes Russell among others.
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I think that's probably the most likely scenario. I think there's a good chance they'll add a Jay replacement at some point too (there are several OFs like Austin Jackson, Jarrod Dyson, and even Ichiro who won't cost too much).
But I'm still going to hold out hope on Yelich until he either joins a new team or makes his season debut with the Marlins even though i know it's not likely.
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Dyson makes a lot of sense to me, but other teams might be able to offer more guaranteed playing time.
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There is no room on the roster for an extra outfielder.
For the 12-man position group, the only question is whether Caratini or a vet gets the backup catcher spot.
But the other 10 non-catcher spots are already taken.
They'd need to cut La Stella to make room for Dyson/Jackson/Ichiro.
They've already got six outfielders, seven if you count Willson.
Schwarber-Almora-Heyward
Happ-Zobrist-Bryant
Contreras.
It's really just about deciding backup catcher. Otherwise, just looking for non-roster players willing to go to Iowa and wait for a big-league injury.
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I don't think it's necessarily about the number of guys who can play OF - I think it's about having a guy you're comfortable using in CF against RHP. Maybe that's Happ, or maybe it's Heyward with somebody else in right - but it wasn't be chance we picked up Jay last year.
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The chances are pretty good that the Cubs won't start with a 13 man rotation, especially when they can use the 10 man DL.
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The chances are pretty good that the Cubs won't start with a 13 man rotation, especially when they can use the 10 man DL.
Yeah, doubt the 13 man rotation idea. Still not even sold on 6 man, so 13 is ridiculous. And putting 10 guys on the DL at one time is nuts too. Or am I misunderstanding something?
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The past three years, we've clearly seen that 13 pitchers is Maddon's predominant norm. Don't think he'll change, 10-day DL notwithstanding. During the games in which he wants 13 pitchers (even if it isn't 162 games or opening day, I'd still be surprised if it isn't at least 140.....), you can't have 13 players.
So if you sign Dyson to give 13 players, what would you do during the >140 games with 13 pitchers? Options:
1. Assume somebody will always be injured so it won't be a problem.
2. Cut La Stella.
3. Send Happ or Schwarber to Iowa
4. Cut Dyson.
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Pretty sure he meant 13 pitchers and 10 day DL
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Are you meaning you think they're done for the offseason? Because I don't think that's the case.
I think they might make some minor trades, but I doubt that they will be bringing a TOR starter back in trade this winter. Free agent, possible, but I think a Cobb-type is much more likely than a Darvish-type. I think they would like to bring back Arietta if they can get him for 4 years. He has the knack for winning.
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I think they might make some minor trades, but I doubt that they will be bringing a TOR starter back in trade this winter. Free agent, possible, but I think a Cobb-type is much more likely than a Darvish-type. I think they would like to bring back Arietta if they can get him for 4 years. He has the knack for winning.
I think if they miss out on Arrieta, Darvish, and Cobb, we may see a major trade. Otherwise, no.
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Well, I sure hope not. I have no desire to trade anyone on the roster for another pitcher. In my opinion, they are extremely likely to make the playoffs with the roster they have, and they have little need for a fifth pitcher in the playoffs.
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The past three years, we've clearly seen that 13 pitchers is Maddon's predominant norm. Don't think he'll change, 10-day DL notwithstanding. During the games in which he wants 13 pitchers (even if it isn't 162 games or opening day, I'd still be surprised if it isn't at least 140.....), you can't have 13 players.
So if you sign Dyson to give 13 players, what would you do during the >140 games with 13 pitchers? Options:
1. Assume somebody will always be injured so it won't be a problem.
2. Cut La Stella.
3. Send Happ or Schwarber to Iowa
4. Cut Dyson.
1.) The 10 day DL makes it easy to shuffle pitchers/players around. See the Dodgers from last year.
2.) If Baez starts at 2B most days, Zobrist rebounds some, Dyson is the left CF option and Happ can get optioned to Iowa to get regular playing time.
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Don't sleep on a Salazar trade. That's one that could happen.
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Well, I sure hope not. I have no desire to trade anyone on the roster for another pitcher. In my opinion, they are extremely likely to make the playoffs with the roster they have, and they have little need for a fifth pitcher in the playoffs.
Your comment is again lockstepped into the mentality that another pitcher will be #5. Why? I'd rather have 5 #2's than a 1,2,3,4,5. Pitchers get hurt. When the season starts, your #5 may go against the other team's #1 many times because of a rainout or a schedule fluke. Gotta get rid of that thinking. It only works on paper; not in real play.
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I've never seen an offseason move this slowly. It almost defies belief.
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Agree, Curt. Rare other than opening day and playoffs that #1 matches #1. Having five #2's (if that were possible) would serve you really well through the regular season. Being able to put out a solid #2/#3-type guy every day is very conducive to winning streaks.
The guys they are looking for are guys that might be #2 or whatever. WS winter, people wondered if Hendricks would even make the rotation, or if Warren or Cahill or Wood might beat him out. Any of Darvish, Cobb, or Arrieta might end up in our playoff rotations. Chatwood too, hypothetically.
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Even if we dont make a trade we're just a few moves away from being a 90+ win team [reliever,starter,leadoff man].
There's plenty of time and plenty of options available.
Tranquilo.
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I've never seen an offseason move this slowly. It almost defies belief.
Basically you have a lot of players that teams want but don't want to pay their asking price for. GM's don't want to give $20 million per year to Alex Cobb or 6 years to Jake Arrieta any more than any of us, so it's pretty much a waiting game until someone bites. It's just a long drawn out game of chicken with the different teams and players that we have going on right now.
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I've never seen an offseason move this slowly. It almost defies belief.
I'm starting to think nothing is going to happen until the last minute before Spring Training starts. About a month from now, we'll see about 120 free agent signings in a week.
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I imagine if there was a good deal for a pitcher, the Cubs would have already made it. Sooner or later they're going to bite the bullet and take the least-bad deal they can find, and hope the guy they get works out great.
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Theo is generally not one to be reactive. I expect a big move soon.
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Quintana and Hendricks are included in this assessment of the 10 most steady pitchers going through batting order three times, FWIW.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-starters-who-maintain-production-late/c-264262296
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So Kapman reported the Cubs offered Cobb 3/$42, FWIW. Hard to believe they thought that had any chance, although I wouldn't want to go much higher (or longer) than that myself.
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I've never seen an offseason move this slowly. It almost defies belief.
ESPN Insider had an article about this. They blame some of the agents (Boras) who tend to cut it close and squeeze as much as they can, the quality of the free agent class (not much there), and the money a non-quality free agent market is looking for. As soon as a couple of guy accept lower offers, the dam probably won't break.
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I'm not sure I agree with the pretext that this is an overly weak FA class. It's not elite by any means. but I don't think it's a bad group at all on the whole.
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Combination: non-elite, but good, talent looking for elite level money.
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along with teams saving their $$$ for the next two years.
Harper, Blackmon, Kershaw and Machado hit the market next year.
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That was mentioned that these FAs are asking for the kind of money those FAs will be looking for.
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A majority of GM's being analytical and not wanting to pay for past performance too.
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The conflict for many GM's is whether to pay for last performance in terms of putting butts in the seats vs bringing in the sabre-solid but unspectacular players more likely to help the team win. Glorious when you can get both.
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Your comment is again lockstepped into the mentality that another pitcher will be #5. Why? I'd rather have 5 #2's than a 1,2,3,4,5. Pitchers get hurt. When the season starts, your #5 may go against the other team's #1 many times because of a rainout or a schedule fluke. Gotta get rid of that thinking. It only works on paper; not in real play.
You are missing the point.
They now have four decent starters - Hendricks, Lester, Quintana and Chatwood. If they sign another starter, SOMEONE will become largely superfluous in the playoffs. Whether that is the new signee or Chatwood or Hendricks, or lester, or Quintana, it will add little value in the playoffs, And, in my opinion, they are likely to get to the playoffs even if they do not sign the new pitcher. And I doubt that they will sign a new pitcher who will so much better than Chatwood in the playoffs that it will justify the price.
What number you assign to the new pitcher is meaningless. The point is, he is probably not needed. It is true that depth is helpful. Montgomery provides that depth.
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Likely due to injuries or non performance, another starter wouldnt be superfluous. I am with Tico, spend the cash this year, next years crop is going to be way way overpriced.
Sign Darvish now.
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I am not against signing another good pitcher. I just don't believe it is necessary. And the price in a trade would be too high, in my opinion. If they can sign Darvish to a price then can afford, then fine. I just believe that, with the current roster, a Darvish-level free agent pitcher would not be worth the price.
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I am extremely confident that Jake, Darvish or Cobb will be a Cub soon. That would give us a rotation that includes Chatwood, the new signee, Hendricks, Q and Lester. Montgomery would have the same role as previous seasons.
I would not be surprised to see the Cubs make a deal for another front line starter above and beyond what we have. It may not be this off season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Russell and Hendricks were shipped out within the next 12 months.
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Why on earth would they move Hendricks?
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Why on earth would they move Hendricks?
Hendricks continues to be perhaps the most unappreciated Cub among some folks here. Pretty sure he's unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts.
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Hendricks continues to be perhaps the most unappreciated Cub among some folks here. Pretty sure he's unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts.
Did you perhaps forget to include a "not" in there? Like, "Pretty sure he's not unappreciated by Theo though, and that's what counts."
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No one under appreciates Hendricks here, he's been great. He'll probably continue to be good for the next three years while the Cubs still control him.
But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. All pitchers are risky by nature, especially those with no real margin for error.
In theory, I think some combination of all the reasons listed below could motivate them to trade Hendricks:
- The risk mentioned above--at some point, maybe the trade value is worth more than his expected future on-field value once risk is factored in.
- The farm system is weak and Hendricks has a lot of value--he can help refill the pipeline as the current core starts closing in on free agency.
- He's getting expensive, the Cubs are getting close to the luxury tax, and he's a significant salary they can move easily.
- He's getting close to free agency--he'll only be two years away next offseason. He's probably not going to be a priority to sign long term over guys like Bryant or Contreras (or Harper or Machado if they decide to get into those markets next offseason). So maybe he's less untouchable a year from now.
I think it's unlikely for Hendricks to get traded, but I see the reasoning.
Hendricks has always been compared to Doug Fister as a control artist with low (for MLB) velocity. So I think it's interesting to note that when Fister was 29 and had four years of MLB service (which will be Hendricks' status next year), the Tigers traded him to the Nationals for what was viewed as a questionable trade at the time. The Tigers got a lot of criticism. But it turned out that they moved on at the right time. Fister has been worth a total of about 4 fWAR in his last four seasons after being worth almost 16 fWAR in his first four years.
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I would take the contrarian view that Hendricks is perhaps the most fetishized player around here...
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No one under appreciates Hendricks here, he's been great. He'll probably continue to be good for the next three years while the Cubs still control him.
Many here have under appreciated him ever since he came up, minimizing his success, insisting it could not be repeated, describing it as smoke and mirrors, and viewing him as anything other than the best starter on the staff. That attitude tends to match hand-in-glove with the belief of many than top pitchers have to be hard throwers and that pitchers getting lots of strikeouts are inherently better than those who do not.
Contending otherwise is nonsense.... particularly when the contention comes from someone whose own comments put him in that under appreciating category --
But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by.
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But there is a reason you don't see many players with his velocity in MLB anymore--they just have so little room for error. If he ever lost a little command, he would be in trouble. If he loses much velocity, he's probably not going to really struggle to get by. All pitchers are risky by nature, especially those with no real margin for error.
br, what you say is true, but Hendricks is a genuine outlier. He has once in a generation command combined with once in a generation pitching skills. He's going to be a very difficult case for Theo. I get the impression that Theo looks for comparables to see how they age, etc. There aren't many comparables for Kyle.
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When Hendricks velocity was down last year he wasn’t as good.
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I get that Hendricks is an outlier...but presumably, even once in a generation pitching skills stop being effective at some velocity level for any (non-knuckleball) pitcher. What is that velocity level? I don't know, but I'd guess it's closer to 85 mph than 75 mph.
I also really worry about injury risk for him. If he had a significant arm injury, then I think you have to worry if he'd still have the command and movement he absolutely has to have to succeed.
I'm not really advocating one way or the other...I can see the argument for trading him, and I understand why most here wouldn't want to trade him. I just wanted to make the point that suggesting or advocating for a Hendricks trade isn't necessarily a case of someone under appreciating Hendricks. It's an interesting discussion to have and a decision that I'm glad Theo will be making.
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Recently, Hendricks was ranked #11 of MLB aces. He was in lofty company. We would be thrilled with any of the ten listed above him.
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What is that velocity level? I don't know, but I'd guess it's closer to 85 mph than 75 mph.
Jared Weaver became less effect at 86.
Doug Fister decline started at 87, less effective at 86.
Maddux was worth 3.9 fWAR in his 41 year old season and average 87.2 on his sinker. He was worth 2.4 fWAR as a 42 year old and averaged 83.9 on his sinker.
Hendricks was still good last year and averaged 86.3, but he wasn't as good as when he was 88-89. I think it safe to say Hendricks can't afford to lose much more on his velocity and maintain his high level of production. I would say he'll age better than Fister, but not as well as Maddux.
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Recently, Hendricks was ranked #11 of MLB aces.
Currently #12 on the Bill James Starting Pitcher list.
Ahead of Lester.
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I'm not sure how one can say Hendricks has "once in a generation" command and pitching skills. That's an incredibly sweeping statement.
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Why on earth would they move Hendricks?
The best reason would be if Theo felt Hendricks perceived value around the league was higher than Theo's opinion of his value. As many have suggested, there is little margin for error. If his velocity drops a few MPHs he will be taking advantage of his Ivy League education as opposed to getting outs.
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I believe that Hendricks is the best pitcher on the current rotation, and is likely to continue to be so for the next several years. He had a slump in the first half of last season when pitching through minor injuries, but his second half was quite comparable to his outstanding 2016.
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Personally, I take Quintana over Hendricks in a heartbeat.
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I am extremely confident that Jake, Darvish or Cobb will be a Cub soon. That would give us a rotation that includes Chatwood, the new signee, Hendricks, Q and Lester. Montgomery would have the same role as previous seasons......
I feel the same way. They're going to get somebody pretty interesting, almost certainly one of those three guys. Not going to settle for a Lackey, or for Montgomery with Tseng as next-man-up. .
DaveP, I understand the logic of the point, that if you pay for a pretty good starter from the Darvish-Cobb-Arrieta class, one of the five starters won't be starting in the playoffs. If we have five kind of interchangeably good starters, at least one is not going to start in the playoffs. So why pay big for a guy who's going to be interchangeable and no better than somebody else? Zero playoff 'WAR' then!
I don't share your assumption that we'll be in the playoffs regardless, though. 1st, Getting into the playoffs might be harder than we think. Winning the division is pretty important target and improving our regular-season rotation I think improves the chances. 2nd, I think that winning a lot and getting into the playoffs more easily is helpful for setting things up and being able to pace the relievers, and starters, in September. 3rd, you don't know which of your 5th starters in February will be unavailable come June or October. Somebody is likely to be injured or ineffective by October. Maybe Chatwood will be super wild. Maybe Lester will lose another mph and jump from 4.3ERA to 4.8 ERA for the season? Who knows who'll get hurt?
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Chatwood, assuming he throws strikes, would be excellent coming out of the pen in the playoffs.
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I have a hard time believing in Hendricks.
He always proves me wrong but still.
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Chatwood, assuming he throws strikes....
Yeah, perhaps. That's a pretty risky assumption, though!
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So those who would appear to be in the camp of serious "doubters" about Hendricks would be brjones, deeg, CUBluejays, and DUSTY.
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Thinking somebody may not age as well as a HOF makes me a doubter? Whatever.
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I said he proves me wrong every time.
I just dont think he's a 1 or 2.
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Kaplan throwing cold water on Yelich to the Cubs. On twitter Brett Taylor speculated that it would cost 2 mlb hitters + 2 top pitching prospects and that still may not be enough. Kaplan agreed at the cost and said he wasn’t a realistic target. Sorry BR.
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Well, the X-factor in a Yelich deal is that the Marlins have probably the worst front office in baseball. Who knows what their motivations are? They clearly didn't seem to care about getting the best package available for Ozuna.
Kaplan and Taylor are right that it's not especially realistic--someone will probably offer a stronger package of prospects than the Cubs can offer. But I could see the Marlins deciding they want to prioritize young MLB players over prospects who are a year or two away. Not many other teams can give up two young MLB players (plus more) in a deal for Yelich and still improve their team.
Those tweets were in response to Twitter talk about Levine on the radio this morning, by the way. Levine apparently said the Cubs are trying to trade for Yelich and have a 3 year offer out for Cain.
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Perhaps I am badly mistaken, but I am having grave doubts about Levine's credibility ... or at least that of his sources
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I will admit, I'm giving Levine a lot more credibility on this than I'd normally give him because I really want it to be true. And it's not just the Yelich rumor--the whole idea that the Cubs are trying to improve the lineup/CF is something I always wanted to be a top priority of the offseason.
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So did Levine.
I’ll take Kaplan on this.
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Not many other teams can give up two young MLB players (plus more) in a deal for Yelich and still improve their team.
And I think the Cubs are one of them. I don't think the team would be improved by getting Yelich for, for instance, Russell and Happ.
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Well, Kaplan's and Levine's statements are not mutually exclusive--the Cubs could really be interested and calling the Marlins daily trying to find a match, and the deal could still be unlikely. Also, I feel like there is at least some personal opinion coming from both--while both may have their sources telling them different things, neither seems to be directly quoting a source.
Here's my fearless prediction--if the Cubs don't upgrade an OF spot now (preferably CF), they'll be looking hard to do it at the deadline because it'll be a pretty obvious need.
Now let's see some offseason movement so we can stop rehashing the same topics here any time there is a new semi-rumor.
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"Now let's see some offseason movement so we can stop rehashing the same topics here any time there is a new semi-rumor."--br
I have noticed that Almora is still a Cub, Yellich is still a Marlin, and Hendricks can't throw any harder than the last time we discussed his standing in the starting pitching universe.
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Liar.
Hendricks was 88-89 to end the year.
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Greg Holland - R - Rockies
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Cubs are "now in the picture" for free agent reliever Greg Holland.
The Rockies' signing of former Cubs closer Wade Davis leaves the club with a need. The Cubs have already inked late-inning reliever Brandon Morrow this winter, but with Davis and Hector Rondon leaving, they surely could use more high-leverage arms. The Nationals, among others, are also believed to be in on the 32-year-old.
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Ken Rosenthal
Yesterday’s notes column: https://theathletic.com/205424/2018/01/07/rosenthal-nats-interested-in-lance-lynn-yelich-suitors-line-up-teams-calling-red-sox-on-swihart-more-notes/ … Have since learned #Nationals are not as aggressive as others on Lynn at this moment. Teams most intent on adding starting pitching through free agency or trade, according to sources: #Astros, #Cubs, #Twins.
No Lance Lynn, no Lance Lynn.
And unless it is a huge discount I'm pretty meh on Holland.
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I agree on Holland. If they're going to spend a lot for another reliever, make it Reed.
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Hendricks and Quintana rank in the top 10 of ML pitchers the third time through the batting order:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/08/cubs-have-two-of-the-best-third-time-through-the-order-starters/
Wow!
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Hendricks and Quintana rank in the top 10 of ML pitchers the third time through the batting order:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/08/cubs-have-two-of-the-best-third-time-through-the-order-starters/
Wow!
So sad to discover that I'm on Playtwo's ignore list. :'(
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You're on more than just P2's.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/08/cubs-arent-necessarily-pursuing-lorenzo-cain-so-much-as-they-might-be-open-to-a-bargain/
Explains more of what Levine said about Cain.
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3 years, $60 million. Cobb or Cain, you have to give that deal to one or the other. Which one do you give it to? Just for fun.
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Cobb.
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I think the only way a Cain deal happens is if there's a corresponding trade for a pitcher. So it really depends on who the pitcher is.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/08/cubs-arent-necessarily-pursuing-lorenzo-cain-so-much-as-they-might-be-open-to-a-bargain/
Explains more of what Levine said about Cain.
Thanks for this link. I can well imagine that the Cubs have looked at such a scenario, as one of may options, depending on other developments. They seem to game lots of different scenarios in order to be prepared to pursue avenues that will benefit the team.
But I can't see the Cubs signing Cain unless they also trade Almora. And I have the impression that they aren't very interested in doing that - unless they could get a really good young starting pitcher in return. And to get that done, I'd expect the Cubs would have to give up someone like Baez or Russell along with Almora, which I don't believe they will do.
Time will tell.
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I don't think Cain and Albert are mutually exclusive, but I don't also don't think Cain will sign at the kind of discount the Cubs are looking for.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85013/real-or-not-special-edition-reasons-for-the-sloooow-hot-stove-season
Repeats a lot of what we've said in this topic and others. The Free Agents in this class do not measure up to previous years or NEXT year's.
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but I don't also don't think Cain will sign at the kind of discount the Cubs are looking for.
I'm okay with that result.
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Cobb. Not even close.
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Thinking somebody may not age as well as a HOF makes me a doubter? Whatever.
I offered no such explanation as to why I put you in the doubter camp, nor would that accurately reflect my reasoning.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68sRqrZZ6wQ
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Rivera isn't coming back, he signed with the Angels.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/angels-sign-rene-rivera.html
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My preference is/was Darvish over Jake even prior to seeing this video. Now....even more so. Nasty.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yu+darvish+pitch+overlay&ru=%2fsearch%3fq%3dyu%2bdarvish%2bpitch%2boverlay%26form%3dEDGTCT%26qs%3dPF%26cvid%3d888e9140c98447399ac22dd4813424d1%26refig%3daf185f8a49a948a08663625a2edf3332%26cc%3dUS%26setlang%3den-US&mmscn=vwrc&view=detail&mid=21A4530C660CEA761A9B21A4530C660CEA761A9B&rvsmid=0E341A785883F4ACC5940E341A785883F4ACC594&FORM=VDQVAP
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Darvish tweeted about the rumor going around that his choices are down to the Cubs, Twins, Astros, Rangers, and Yankees:
ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish) @faridyu
I know one more team is in.
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Darvish tweeted about the rumor going around that his choices are down to the Cubs, Twins, Astros, Rangers, and Yankees:
ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish) @faridyu
I know one more team is in.
I knew the Marlins were saving their money for something.
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Marlins? Mariners?
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My preference is/was Darvish over Jake even prior to seeing this video. Now....even more so. Nasty.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yu+darvish+pitch+overlay&ru=%2fsearch%3fq%3dyu%2bdarvish%2bpitch%2boverlay%26form%3dEDGTCT%26qs%3dPF%26cvid%3d888e9140c98447399ac22dd4813424d1%26refig%3daf185f8a49a948a08663625a2edf3332%26cc%3dUS%26setlang%3den-US&mmscn=vwrc&view=detail&mid=21A4530C660CEA761A9B21A4530C660CEA761A9B&rvsmid=0E341A785883F4ACC5940E341A785883F4ACC594&FORM=VDQVAP
That's a really cool video. I wonder whether Darvish is particularly unusual in this respect.
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Lester is really good at this.
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/pitch-tunneling-is-it-real-and-how-do-pitchers-actually-pitch/
http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/01/jon-lester-and-pitch-tunnels/
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Really starting to doubt Darvish is coming. Seems to me if he was that impressed with the Cubs and wanted to play for them, he would have signed by now and stopped dicking around.
https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-narrows-suitors-to-six-teams/c-264556936
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Articles like this make it seem like the Cubs and Cobb might be coming back around to each other.
https://theathletic.com/209655/2018/01/11/will-alex-cobb-talk-himself-into-the-cubs-maybe-thats-the-plan/
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BR,the Athletic is pay site. I can see that the article it is about Cobb. Can you give us your cliff note version.
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BR,the Athletic is pay site. I can see that the article it is about Cobb. Can you give us your cliff note version.
Pay for the content.
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Pay for the content.
I did. There's nothing earth-shattering in it. Quotes from Cishek about how he's reached out to Cobb and hopes he signs because, you know, he's good.
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Thank you DMF.
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Yeah, nothing earth shattering...but it was a lot like what was being written about Cobb at the beginning of the offseason when a Cobb signing seemed inevitable. I’ve seen a couple things like that the last few days, which makes it seem like beat writers are helping the Cubs reset expectations away from Darvish.
I’ll be fine if Cobb signs—I was really on board at the beginning of the offseason. But after the Darvish tease, it would feel a like a little bit of a letdown.
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If we can get Cobb for a price that Epstein feels is reasonable, I will be quite satisfied with the winter.
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We'd still be short one reliever.
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And one starter you'd actually want to use in the postseason.
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If they signed cobb, who would you be reluctant to use in the post season?
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Cobb.
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There's still a few moves left to be made IMO.
Does Theo and Jed still see it that way?
Im not so sure.
I'd like to think even before we address the position players they'd still be looking to add another starter and reliever.
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As the roster currently stands Mike Montgomery is clearly one of our 5 best starters so adding a starter really adds a reliever too so lets look at it like this...
Locks...
Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Chatwood, Montgomery.
Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Strop, Grimm, Wilson.
We know we dont want Montgomery starting so you know we have to add a SP which moves Montgomery to the pen which gives us 7 locks.
That means we either believe in Dillon Maples an awful lot or we're gonna add a reliever too.
Ill take Holland and Cobb.
Dont waste big money on position players unless one falls in our lap.
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Cobb.
If the Front Office signs Cobb, it will be because they don't agree with you.
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Justin Wilson is the first arb eligible Cub to agree, he'll get $4.25 million this year.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Russell and Schwarber had much better years than last year. That alone would make the offense the best in the NL. I don't see a need to bolster the offense at this point. Another reliever and starter are the obvious additions lacking at this point.
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Hendricks agrees at $4.175 million.
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Good. Now sign him to a long term contract.
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La Stella agrees at $950,000.
Still waiting on Bryant, Russell, and Grimm. The deadline to exchange numbers just passed, so we should hear one way or the other soon. There has been some speculation that they'll hold the Bryant announcement back until tonight at the convention.
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Bryant sets a new record for a first year arb eligible player with $10.85 million. Since he's a super two, he still has 3 more years of arbitration remaining. Josh Donaldson got $23 million earlier today for his last year of arbitration...will Bryant be pushing $30 million in three years?
Russell also agrees for $3.2 million. So Grimm is the only guy who will file.
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Bryant sets a new record for a first year arb eligible player with $10.85 million. Since he's a super two, he still has 3 more years of arbitration remaining. Josh Donaldson got $23 million earlier today for his last year of arbitration...will Bryant be pushing $30 million in three years?
Russell also agrees for $3.2 million. So Grimm is the only guy who will file.
I don't know what the Cubs' offer is, but Grimm would appear to have brass balls to be the one guy filing for arbitration given his incredibly inconsistent performance.
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Heyman is reporting that the Cubs have talked to the Pirates about Cole is addition to the Yanks and Astros.
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Heyman is reporting that the Cubs have talked to the Pirates about Cole is addition to the Yanks and Astros.
Cubs would have to surrender, what, Happ and Alzolay/Albertos for Cole?
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Happ straight up or GFY. And that ain't gonna cut it, so eff it.
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I'm guessing the price is higher in an intra-division trade.
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They reportedly want Torres from the Yanks so I'm sure the cost is absurd for the Cubs.
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Why trade for someone when you can sign someone?
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It seems like the Pirates think it's December 2015, when Cole was coming off a 4th place Cy Young season, had four years of control left, and looked like he was turning into an ace.
He has two years left and has pitched like a #3 the last couple of years...his reputation is far stronger than his actual performance at this point.
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Thanks but no thanks for Cole. Or any of the trades I've heard speculated.
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Im interested in buying low on Danny Salazar.
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Cleveland isnt selling low... they want market value.
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I'm not interested in overpaying for 2 years of Cole, but I think it's a mistake to write him off as a #3 starter. He's throwing harder than ever and his stuff is ace level.
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Cole is an excellent pitcher. But the cost in a trade would be too high.
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I'll take Jake or Yu.
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I have a hard time knowing whether to take seriously the possibility of bringing Arrieta back. I guess I'll be surprised if that happens.
I suppose if no team is willing to give Jake what he and Boras want/expect, and the Cubs are in the same ballpark as to money and length, they would have two advantages. Arrieta would be coming back to a place he knows and is comfortable. And Boras could save some face re Arrieta taking so much less than Boras projected by saying Arrieta always really wanted to return to the Cubs and was willing to take less to do so.
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The Cubs have this marvelous window of opportunity over the next few years and they simply must augment their pitching with one more high end starter. Trading for one is not realistic, so that leaves Jake or Yu. I don't have strong feelings about which of them they get, but getting one of them is imperative. Sure, they would be an excellent team with the addition of a lesser pitcher but, as others have said, this would leave them at a serious disadvantage come playoff time.
I'm confident that we will land Jake or Yu and I'm pulling for Jake on a reasonable 4 (or even 5) year deal.
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I think trading for Salazar may be realistic. And when he's healthy enough to pitch he may be as good or better than Yu or Jake.
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I would prefer to give up money rather than significant young talent.
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/frozen-baseball-offseason-hot-stove-starting-pitching-pitcher-theo-epstein-jake-arrieta-yu-darvish-alex-cobb-gerrit-cole-mlb-trade-rumors
“I like the talent that we have right now, but I think we could certainly add to the depth. And you could do that through depth moves or through adding another real quality pitcher and bolster the depth even more that way...."
“We’re looking to add another pitcher just to possibly improve the options in the starting rotation and especially the ripple effect that will add depth,” Epstein said. “The best way to build a championship team is to mitigate all the risks that sink teams and prevent them from being championship teams. And with us right now, we’re very well protected on the position-player side. But there’s legitimate risk for injury or underperformance to our pitching staff that we’re going to be scrambling midseason. You don’t want to be scrambling.
“So we need to continue to add quality and depth and try to mitigate as many of the risks as we can. You never eliminate all the risks, otherwise you’d win it all every year. But eliminating as many of those risks as you can is our job.”
Thoughts:
1. The focus is on pitching, of course. But I think the underlined statement about position-players is really relevant. Cubs have 10 non-catcher position guys, with people like Happ, Zobrist, La Stella, Almora, and Heyward at the back end of that group. Much flexibility, so I agree with Theo that they are well protected there. But, behind those ten guys are what, David Bote and Mark Zagunis?
My point here is that they don't have a position surplus. If you need to trade two of those ten guys, even one of them, the depth and contingency coverage could VERY quickly erode. Thus I think Theo should be *very* reluctant to trade Happ or Happ/Almora from that pool.
Position pool is nice as is; but not superfluous/redundant to allow a trade without getting really risky position-wise.
So, I agree with P2, spending $$$ in FA is the way to go.
2. It's interesting how Theo talks about the pitcher. This is a variation on standard Theo/Hoyer cliche that the repeat every winter, about wanting depth and risk-mitigation for pitchers. That's what they said two years ago when they added Adam Warren and Cahill, etc.. Last year they talked about that a bunch, but in practice ended up committing to Anderson for the rotation, and the "depth" additions were the likes of Eddie Butler, Dylan Florio, Seth Frankoff, and Alec Mills.
It's the same spiel every winter, kind of. But obviously in context we know that Theo is meaning more than adding Butler, Florio, Frankoff, and Mills this time around.
"could do that through depth moves or through adding another real quality pitcher and bolster the depth even more that way"
Theo talks about "depth moves", but obviously the "adding another real quality pitcher" which then bumps everybody down is really the way to go. That still won't be super deep: Chatwood as #5, Montgomery as #6, with Tseng as #7 isn't necessarily the deepest, strongest contingency protection. But it's a world better than Chatwood #4, Montgomery #5, Tseng #6, and Zastryzny as #7, or whatever.
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And gives us 4 strong playoff starters with the fifth (presumably Chatwood) moving to the pen for the postseason.
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Heh heh, the prospect of having a 5th starter that you'd be happy to use in playoff relief is super appealing to me. Unlike Lackey! :):)
October was a super-fail in that regard. Lackey and Montgomery were our 5th/6th starters; the pair couldn't have been more bad in playoff relief.
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Rosenthal tweeted that Arrietta is down to the Cards and Cubs. I thought it was an old tweet but it was just 3 hours ago. Wasn't this leaked as a trial balloon about a week ago?
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Rosenthal tweeted that Arrietta is down to the Cards and Cubs. I thought it was an old tweet but it was just 3 hours ago. Wasn't this leaked as a trial balloon about a week ago?
Interesting. Heh heh, might be fun if Cubs were to get Darvish, they get Jake, and over a couple of years we'd get to watch how the two respective pitchers and contracts played out over time for the two rivals.
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I don’t see it on Rosenthal’s timeline,
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From the convention...
Kid: "Theo when do you think I can get my Bryce Harper jersey?"
Theo: "Ask Kris Bryant he seems to have quite a few."
For those of you who remember (or know) Moses...that was his son’s question...
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Smart kid.
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That's great, DAve (and Moses's son....) Nice answer by Theo, too.
Yeah, I'd have loved to have Reed at that contract. Bummer. Still, I can see the appeal for him to get a clear role as closer on a playoff team with a lot of young and rising talent, in a really nice place to live too.
Heh heh, if Hoyer is just figuring to end up signing Lackey as 6th starter depth, he'd have had lots of cash left to pay Reed too. He must have not wanted to pay enough to get Reed because he wants to use his $$ on Darvish this year and Harper next, right? :)
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Rosenthal tweeted that Arrietta is down to the Cards and Cubs. I thought it was an old tweet but it was just 3 hours ago. Wasn't this leaked as a trial balloon about a week ago?
I don’t see it on Rosenthal’s timeline,
Nor do I see it on Rosenthal's twitter account.
He is one of the few baseball reporters who I think should be taken very seriously on such things But absent some documentation of the source, I assume this is not current, and/or not from Rosenthal.
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Willson dominated Q&A today...especially on the topic of Lester/Pham.
Can someone link the video here? I saw it on Twitter a few minutes ago...
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Willson dominated Q&A today...especially on the topic of Lester/Pham.
Can someone link the video here? I saw it on Twitter a few minutes ago...
https://twitter.com/kg_holler/status/952264656894251008/video/1
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https://twitter.com/kg_holler/status/952264656894251008/video/1
Thanks so much, Bennett! That was a moment.
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Thanks...
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Willson said "to hell with the young ears in the crowd".
We're raising a soft generation anyway.
They'll hear worse.
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The Cubs have this marvelous window of opportunity over the next few years and they simply must augment their pitching with one more high end starter. Trading for one is not realistic, so that leaves Jake or Yu. I don't have strong feelings about which of them they get, but getting one of them is imperative. Sure, they would be an excellent team with the addition of a lesser pitcher but, as others have said, this would leave them at a serious disadvantage come playoff time.
I'm confident that we will land Jake or Yu and I'm pulling for Jake on a reasonable 4 (or even 5) year deal.
I am not a big fan of resigning Arrieta. I am afraid not just that he best days are behind him and that his trendline is not good, but that what we saw from Arrieta in 2017 is better than we will ever see again from him.
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“right now, we’re very well protected on the position-player side. But there’s legitimate risk for injury or underperformance to our pitching staff that we’re going to be scrambling midseason. You don’t want to be scrambling.
“So we need to continue to add quality and depth and try to mitigate as many of the risks as we can. You never eliminate all the risks, otherwise you’d win it all every year. But eliminating as many of those risks as you can is our job.”
Thoughts:
1. The focus is on pitching, of course. But I think the underlined statement about position-players is really relevant. Cubs have 10 non-catcher position guys, with people like Happ, Zobrist, La Stella, Almora, and Heyward at the back end of that group. Much flexibility, so I agree with Theo that they are well protected there. But, behind those ten guys are what, David Bote and Mark Zagunis?
My point here is that they don't have a position surplus. If you need to trade two of those ten guys, even one of them, the depth and contingency coverage could VERY quickly erode. Thus I think Theo should be *very* reluctant to trade Happ or Happ/Almora from that pool.
I suspect Theo looks at it much the same way.
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Update on all the work being done during the offseason at Wrigley
The dugouts are being moved roughly 28 feet up the line, which will align them better with the new batting tunnels that are being put in. The new protective netting will extend all the way to the far end of the new dugouts, so it’s going to be a really considerably expansion.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/13/from-the-cubs-business-side-wrigley-field-updates-hotel-tv-deal/
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/why-kyle-hendricks-excited-have-tyler-chatwood-cubs-starting-rotation-pitcher-hot-stove-free-agent-mlb-trade-rumors-jake-arrieta
"Chatwood, I think, is going to be really big for us," Hendricks said. "We grew up in the same area, so I played summer baseball with him senior year, and he wasn't even pitching then, he was a shortstop, great hitter. But he's just a baseball guy, baseball mind, and that's kind of what this team's about. It's a bunch of guys who love playing the game, love being together. I think he's going to fit in great, personality-wise.
"And the stuff he has, I know it's going to play really well. He's only had a couple starts at Wrigley, but he's obviously pitched well there. That's going to bode well for him in the future. And being able to pick guys' brains, like Lester and these older guys that have been around. I think they're going to help him like they've helped me."
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I agree with Kyle, I think Chatwood had a chance to be really good. There's bust potential there but a lot of upside.
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Cubs add a lefty:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Sources: cubs have deal to bring back Brian Duensing. $7M for 2 years.
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Duensing had deals for significantly more money elsewhere but liked the cubs experience so much he wanted to return. Can’t blame him. Chicago’s the best (in the summer)
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That's good news and a fair deal.
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Thanks for update. Not surprised.
Wraps up the lefty spot we knew they'd sign.
Could perhaps just leave the rotation guy.
Once they sign their rotation guy, that will still leave the Grimm+competition spot in the pen. I wonder if they'll just go with that, or if they'll still add a guaranteed contract guy to replace Grimm? Or will add some interesting rehab guy or additional non-roster competition to compete with Grimm and perhaps Maples?
I'm quite curious whether Maples might be kinda good, and might emerge as a guy we like to use. But at this point I think that even if he was to look excellent in camp, it would still make best roster-sense to send him to Iowa, just so that you've got somebody with yo-yo capacity, of hopefully useful quality rather than the Florio/Frankoff level we had last year.
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At this point I think the market is playing into the Cub's hands. Who is left to offer the big contract to the big three free agents? Even if all go off the board Lance Lynn isn't a terrible fallback on a club friendly deal. His peripherals suggest he was lucky last year, but he was in his first year after Tommy John, has always seemed to perform better than his numbers suggest, and would be a nice number 4 on most teams.
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We're a little over $30 million below the luxury tax threshold with only one starting rotation slot and the backup catcher position to fill.
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Bortolo Colon always has a good first half.
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I'd rather have Montgomery in the rotation than Lynn.
Maples is super interesting. If he throws can throw enough strikes he has the best raw stuff in the pen.
Duensing at 2/$7 million is a nice deal, I wasn't a fan of bringing him back because I thought he'd cost a lot more/year.
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Very fair for Duensing. I think it's better than even-money he regresses back to a 4A pitcher, but we haven't lost much.
My fear is that Cobb caves before Yu and we sign him, Darvish's market totally dries up and the Yankees or Dodgers end up with the guy everybody wanted - as usual - as a bargain basement price.
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Good to see Duensing back. Now let's get Jake/Yu and we're pretty much ready for battle.
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Once Duensing is added, the 40-man roster will stand at 39.
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Maples is super interesting. If he throws can throw enough strikes he has the best raw stuff in the pen....
If Maples, Edwards, Morrow, Strop, Grimm, and Wilson could all locate, that would be a VERY talented collection of strong-stuff relievers.
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We're a little over $30 million below the luxury tax threshold with only one starting rotation slot and the backup catcher position to fill.
Thanks, Jeff. That seems to give plenty of space to add the priciest of the pitchers, AND still have some cushion for picking up a contract in July if needed.
For lux purposes, they usually give signing bonus which pro-rates, right? So even if they did sign Darvish, they could probably both give him a nice signing bonus but also have a relatively modest lux-tax hit for this year. I almost wonder if they wouldn't prefer to structure it frontloaded. Rather than "waste" some under-lux space this year, push as many cap dollars into this year as is practical. (Not $30, of course, because they'll want to keep their July-contract-pickup cushion.)
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Luxury tax is calucalted on AAV. So a 5 year/$125 contract counts as $25 million even in you pay $100 million in the first year. There must be some wording preventing longer contracts so you couldn't sing Darvish to 10 year/$160 million contract paying him peanuts at the end so he just retires.
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Thanks!
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Carrie Muskat makes the case for Kris Bryant batting leadoff. I thought this was a good idea last season. Not only is he a high OBP guy, he's reportedly the fastest runner on the team, with good instincts.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/batting-bryant-leadoff-makes-sense-for-cubs/c-264778282
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Carrie Muskat makes the case for Kris Bryant batting leadoff. I thought this was a good idea last season. Not only is he a high OBP guy, he's reportedly the fastest runner on the team, with good instincts.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/batting-bryant-leadoff-makes-sense-for-cubs/c-264778282
Whatever change CreateAForum made recently isn't working as well as it should.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/17/lukewarm-stove-giants-and-pirates-move-market-creative-yankees-offer-for-darvish-much-more/
So, speaking of the Yankees’ involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, Joel Sherman tries to get creative with a potential Yankees offer, which would pay Darvish $30M annually in his first two years in New York, with an opt-out thereafter, but keeps his AAV down by making the full deal six years and $120M, which could be just low enough to sneak under the luxury tax threshold in 2018. It assumes a lot about Darvish’s financial preferences (and multiple opt-outs always make things a bit more complicated), but according to the Commissioner’s Office and Players Association, this would not be against the rules. There would be a monetary “true-up” expense down the line, but it would count towards their 2020 payroll for luxury tax purposes, not 2018. If Darvish thinks he’ll still be rocking two years from now, this could be the way he maximizes his earnings. The Yankees would be taking on a TON of risk to do this, though.
Heywards contract has been structured the same way.
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So, speaking of the Yankees’ involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, Joel Sherman tries to get creative with a potential Yankees offer
Sherman and Heyman have really been working this offseason trying to find a way for the Yankees to sign Darvish. Both keep pushing the "Ellsbury could be traded" narrative even though no other team wants him (and he has a full no trade clause anyway). They're supposedly national writers (though Sherman does his writing for a NY based paper), but they can't help but act like Yankees beat writers half the time.
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Only reason I shared it was JH contract is front loaded to a smaller degree and just on the super small chance he opts opt.
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Can there really be any doubt of how much the Cubs can and will offer Darvish at this point? The roster is pretty much set. And we're literally almost running out of time before pitchers and catchers report. Yu is clearly their first choice, but dragging this out much longer seems kind of pointless.
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Think how boring this offseason has been to fans of most other teams. As frustrating as it has been to wait for the Darvish/Cobb/Arrietta situation play out, at least the Cubs have otherwise been active. They've added Chatwood and three relievers (plus Smyly)--that probably puts them among the top five or so most active teams this offseason.
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No doubt, but that doesn't change the fact that the Darvish situation seems to be at a stalemate. Might be time for an ultimatum.
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For all we know, there might have already been and ultimatum.
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If Maples, Edwards, Morrow, Strop, Grimm, and Wilson could all locate, that would be a VERY talented collection of strong-stuff relievers.
I know that since the days of the Nasty Boys in the Reds' bullpen in 1990 many people have wanted "strong-stuff relievers."
As a result the market inefficiency is almost certainly such that NON-power relievers with a decent track record of getting outs is almost certainly a better way to go.
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We still need a starter and a reliever.
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With Duensing signed, I can't imagine them adding another reliever at this point. What they have is what they'll go with.
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The schedule often has an impact on the mix between starters and relievers at the start of a season.
The Cubs begin with four games at Miami on March 29 - April 1, followed by two games in Cincinnati on April 2 - 3. April 4 is the first off day followed by four games in Milwaukee on April 5-8. April 9 is the home opener against Pittsburgh . That means they six games, an off day, and five more games before the next off day. Needing only four starters for a week or two doesn't happen this year.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2018-04
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The schedule often has an impact on the mix between starters and relievers at the start of a season.
The Cubs begin with four games at Miami on March 29 - April 1, followed by two games in Cincinnati on April 2 - 3. April 4 is the first off day followed by four games in Milwaukee on April 5-8. April 9 is the home opener against Pittsburgh . That means they six games, an off day, and five more games before the next off day. Needing only four starters for a week or two doesn't happen this year.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2018-04
Looks like 11-0 to start the season.
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So our pen was a weakness last year and we replaced two relievers with guys who arent as good as they were?
If they are done either we'll trade Ian Happ for one at the deadline or not have a very good year one.
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Cishek is better than Rondon but if money wasnt a factor I would take Davis over Morrow.
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The Cubs bullpen wasn't a huge weakness--they were middle of the pack. Obviously as a World Series contending team, you want to be better than average. But I don't think they need as much help as you think. (By the way, Fangraphs has the 2018 Cubs projected as the 6th best bullpen in baseball right now by fWAR.)
Davis may have been more valuable overall than Morrow last year because Morrow started the season in the minors. But Morrow was the better pitcher once he joined the Dodgers. I'd take Morrow over Davis going forward no question, even with the injury risk.
Cishek is significantly better than the version of Rondon the Cubs have had since he hurt himself midseason 2016. It's probably unlikely that the 2014-2015 version of Rondon is coming back.
Don't forget about the addition of Wilson--that could be huge. If he returns to his Tigers form (and there's good reason to think he will, IMO), that's a huge difference between last year's pen and this year's pen.
I think the pitching coach change could be a bigger factor than we realize too. I think we may have overlooked some of Bosio's shortcomings over the years because of how much success he had with Arrieta. I get the impression that he's probably about as good as it gets when dealing with old school, bulldog types like Arrieta, Lester, and Lackey. And Hendricks has such a good idea of how to pitch that I don't think his pitching coach matters as much. But I wonder if other pitchers may be better off with a different type of coach. Specifically, the lack-of-command guys (Edwards, Wilson, Strop) could benefit from a different voice with (what I perceive will be) a more modern/analytical approach.
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This is same as br's, but since I'd already written it almost, thought I'd post it anyway. I'm intrinsically a big optimist. So while I know objectively that things might go wrong with the pen, I'm really hopeful that it will go well. What are some scenarios for the pen to be excellent, better than last year overall (which wasn't bad) and way better than the post-season pen that sticks in memory (which was awful)?
1. If Morrow is excellent. If Davis to Morrow is not a significant fall, if any. Morrow throws harder, so may be able to attack the strike zone with fastballs more aggressively than Davis.
2. Expect Cishek >> Rondon. Rondon was bad last year. Chance for a big improvement there. And as a strike-thrower, may be less uncertainty about what you'll get on a given night.
3. Expect Wilson >> Wilson. Wilson wasn't good last year, for us. (to say the least).
4. Expect Grimm > Grimm. Grimm was horrific last year. Given that he wasn't nearly so awful in previous Cubs years, either he'll be less bad, or else he'll be replaced.
5. Expect Maples >> Johnson/Florio/Frankoff. The Iowa yo-yo's were really bad. Maples might be somewhere well north on the antiawful continuum.
6. Edwards/Montgomery: The October versions are in my head, Edwards unable to throw a strike; Montgomery 14H/9R in 4 innings. But MM pitched more innings as starter than in relief, where he was a 2.49 ERA guy during season; think he's got a chance to be effective. Perhaps more so if he's consistently used in relief?
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Looks like 11-0 to start the season.
Me thinks someone is doomed to disappointment.
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Expecting anything more than 10-1 is just plain silly.
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
I asked an MLB executive what he expects on the free agent and trade markets from here. "My latest guess is a consistent trickle for the next few weeks, and then a mad rush the week before spring training,'' he said. That pretty much summarizes the offseason. #consistenttrickle
So another 2-3 weeks of next to nothing, then we finally get the activity we usually see at the Winter Meetings.
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Its almost over.
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This guy looks like quite an athlete, but I'm not sure why he chose baseball:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/19/cubs-reportedly-sign-outfielder-wynton-bernard-to-minor-league-contract/
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Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs is being too harsh on Hendricks in his chat today.
Bebop 10:29
do you think the Cubs should prioritize signing Hendricks & Contreras to extensions? i know the players have to be interested as well but those seem to be two players that are definite keepers based on position & skillset.
Jeff Sullivan 10:29
Not a whole lot of urgency with either and I can see how the Cubs might want to wait another year or so on Hendricks given how he lost so much more velocity. He's still effective today, but, for how much longer?
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The jury is still very much out on that, IMO. That was a huge 1-year velocity drop for Hendricks, the only saving grace being that he partially recovered in the second half. Where he is in 2018 is going to tell a lot.
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The Cubs control Hendricks through 2020 which will be his 31 year old season. I'm pretty ok with letting him hit FA, just like Arrieta unless he wants to sign a team friendly deal.
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The Cubs control Hendricks through 2020 which will be his 31 year old season. I'm pretty ok with letting him hit FA, just like Arrieta unless he wants to sign a team friendly deal.
I will wager Hendricks doesn't get to that point as a Cub.
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I see Im not the only sceptical one here in regards to Hendricks.
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I've been negative about my share of Cub players, so I have little room to talk, but when negative comments are made about a Cub without whom we wouldn't have been World Champions and Division winners, it makes me uncomfortable. Hate to see Cubs worthy of our support become victims of guys wanting I Told You So's at some point so they could be the Smartest Guy in the Room.
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Some fans and writers have been insisting for four years that Hendricks doesn't throw hard enough to be a really good starting pitcher. Each year he has shown they were wrong (though he did have a sub-par year in 2015), they predict that his success won't last, because he doesn't throw hard enough.
Here is what he's done each of four years in the major leagues:
2014: 2.46 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.083 WHIP, 2.9 WAR
2015: 3.95 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.161 WHIP, 1.8 WAR
2016: 2.13 ERA (#1 in NL), 196 ERA+(#1 in NL), 0.979 WHIP, 5 WAR
2017: 3.03 ERA, 144 ERA+, 1.189 WHIP, 3.5 WAR
It remains to be seen how long Hendricks will remain to be one of the better starting pitchers in baseball (which by some measures I gather he has been the last couple of years). But I do wonder what it will take for him to earn the respect he's earned with his actual performance.
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That conveniently ignores the fact that his average fastball dropped what, 2 MPH last season?
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Amazes me as well, Hendricks gets so little respect. I fully expect to learn that what he did last off-season doesn't work and not repeat the mistake. I think it's fairly well known they changed up off-season stuff.
I can't wait till his age 34 season when he finally sucks and the I told you he wouldn't hold up long-terms come out.
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Worrying that Hendricks may backslide isn't the same thing as hoping it happens.
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I've been negative about my share of Cub players, so I have little room to talk, but when negative comments are made about a Cub without whom we wouldn't have been World Champions and Division winners, it makes me uncomfortable. Hate to see Cubs worthy of our support become victims of guys wanting I Told You So's at some point so they could be the Smartest Guy in the Room.
I'm not sure if this was directed at me (in whole or in part) but I am far from negative relative to Hendricks. I am a huge fan. Probably as much or more so than most. I have simply been given reason to believe that the Theocracy and Madden don't feel as strongly as I do.
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Upon his return at the end of July until season end, Hendricks steadily improved toward the level of his 2016 brilliance.
After his return, he returned to TORP numbers: a 2.19 ERA (3.38 FIP), 1.18 WHIP, an increased K/9 (8.3) and decreased BB/9 (2.2), with a hard contact rate (25.7%). His velo crept back up until he was once again averaging roughly 87MPH by his last few starts...no doubt a factor in his 2nd-half resurgence. Kyle was brilliant in Game One vs the Nats (7IP, 2 hits as I recall).
Hopefully, the velo dip was "hangover" from our extended WS run in 2016. I'm sure as hell glad we have him and certainly hope his velo stays around 87. He's a super smart player, a great teammate and he's been one helluva pitcher for us.
However, IF his velo doesn't stay up around 87, I'd guess he's still a decent candidate to continue to be a good major league pitcher...he sets up hitters extraordinarily well, fields his position with the best and, most importantly, he's been beating the odds for SO damned long!!
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It remains to be seen how long Hendricks will remain to be one of the better starting pitchers in baseball (which by some measures I gather he has been the last couple of years). But I do wonder what it will take for him to earn the respect he's earned with his actual performance.
I don't think there is anyone here who is not giving him the respect for his performance to this point in his career. He's been great. Clearly one of the 20-25 best starters in baseball over the last 3-4 years.
I think things are being interpreted as knocks on Hendricks when they're not intended that way. An expressed concern that Hendricks has a risky future or a compliment of another player (specifically, I was placed in the "Hendricks doubters" category last week partially because I said Quintana is a better pitcher) is not disrespecting Hendricks' accomplishments. It almost seems that some Cubs fans are starting to develop the same kind of relationship with Hendricks that Cardinals fans have with Molina (on a much smaller scale, of course).
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Clearly one of the 20-25 best starters in baseball over the last 3-4 years
Number 12 according to Bill James, but what does he know.
http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/
Any pitcher can regress, flame out, or get hurt.
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If Hendricks is as good at his position as Molina has been at his position, for as long as Molina has been, I will be greatly satisfied, and will go to his HOF induction.
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I remember when this board didn’t think Hendricks could be a fifth starter or go more than 5 innings. I’ve liked Hendricks for a long time. Being worried about how he ages isn’t the same thing as disliking him. It isn’t a velocity.
This isn’t a velocity issue either. I didn’t want to sign Arrieta either because the Cubs got what are likely to be his best years in arbritratio. The same goes for Hendricks.
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My post wasn't aimed at any one poster. And I wasn't complaining about noting his decline in velocity. Glad so many of you are his supporters, but some of the negativity sometimes comes across almost as glee. It's probably just me. I apologize.
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It remains to be seen how long Hendricks will remain to be one of the better starting pitchers in baseball (which by some measures I gather he has been the last couple of years). But I do wonder what it will take for him to earn the respect he's earned with his actual performance.
Either a 95 MPH fastball, or more brighter fans.
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It sounds like Cashman took the Yankees out of the mix for Darvish, though it could be a negotiating ploy. If it really is down to the Cubs and Twins you’d have to think we have a pretty good chance.
I wonder if we might actually have more competition for Cobb than Yu, since he fits realistically into the financial picture for more teams.
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Now the Brewers have reportedly made an offer (seemingly confirmed by Yu himself), though how serious it is who can say. That would be kind of a worst-case scenario for the Cubs.
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Darvish just responded to the Brewers offer with an emoji, which could've been interpreted different ways. But this probably confirms a Brewers offer:
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Source confirms: #Brewers have made offer to Darvish. First reported: Yahoo Japan.
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Darvish is an interesting fellow...
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Darvish is an interesting fellow...
As in "tease?"
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As in "tease?"
Well, more just generally quirky and mischievous, I would say. He seems to enjoy messing with people a little bit.
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I would rather have Darvish on the Brewers than the Dodgers.
The Brewers had pretty much everything go right for them and a number of Cubs underperformed. With that the Brewers still finished 6 games back.
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I'm finding it hard to believe that the Brewers can offer more than Texas, the Twinkies, or the Cubs. Of the Dodgers.
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The Brewers payroll is pretty low so they could fit in a large contract and the same goes for the Twins.
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I've mentioned this before, but I don't understand why St. Louis, which had enough $$$ to acquire Stanton, and has Lynn coming off their rotation + books, wouldn't be making offers to these pitchers who are supposedly either getting no offers at all or only getting sub-market offers from Yankees/Dodgers/Houston/Texas; and who are presumably getting only below-market offers from the Cubs. Unless Cardinals scouting doesn't like any of the starters, why wouldn't they at least be making offers?
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My smart a$$ answer is that even signing Darvish doesn't close the gap with the Cubs and that their closer situation is a bigger need.
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Craig, down here, the rumor mill is heavy that the Cardinals are IN on Arrieta.
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Thanks, Curt. They've certainly got to have the $$ for one of these guys. I think it's part of a national media thing, don't seem to pick up on Cardinals rumors as much as some of the other teams. But that doesn't mean Cardinals GM isn't as active or smart as the next guy.
O well, still over 3 weeks till pitchers and catchers report, so no rush for any of the agents to jump yet.
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I'm perfectly fine with the Cards getting Arrieta and us getting Darvish. Or vice versa.
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Jerry Crasnick
✔
@jcrasnick
Yu Darvish has at least one five-year offer on the table, according to a source, but nothing yet has enticed him to take the plunge. It's uncertain if the years or the $$ are the hangup -- or both. #Cubs, #Twins, #Rangers, #Dodgers, #Brewers are all believed to be in the mix.
11:42 AM - Jan 22, 2018
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Chris Cotillo just tweeted that Chris Gimenez signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, and that Gimenez is close with Darvish (both played for the Rangers). Hopefully this is like the Lester/Ross package deal.
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Interesting story given Gimenez’s Darvish connection. They’ve been talking this offseason, and Darvish isn’t a big fan of rules around the clubhouse (seems to be a perfect fit for Maddon).
https://www.twincities.com/2017/12/12/relationship-with-twins-gm-thad-levine-could-be-game-changer-for-yu-darvish/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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That might be a good sign.
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According to Gimenez himself in this story about the signing, he spoke early in the offseason with Darvish about trying to be a package deal, but they haven't really talked in a while. Gimenez had worked with Maddon in Tampa and probably sees a chance to make the team since other than Caratini, there is no backup right now. Unless Darvish told the Cubs to sign him for him to sign, doesn't sound like a package deal. We'll see.
https://www.twincities.com/2018/01/22/chris-gimenez-signs-with-chicago-cubs-is-yu-darvish-next/
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That might be a good sign.
cool. Double meaning.
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Pass the salt, but...
AP Source: Cubs Having Active Talks With RHP Yu Darvish
By The Associated Press
Jan. 22, 2018
CHICAGO — A person with direct knowledge of the discussions says the Chicago Cubs are having active talks with free-agent pitcher Yu Darvish.
The 31-year-old Darvish is one of the top remaining players available in a slow-moving market this winter. He finished last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, helping them reach the World Series.
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Fingers crossed.
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Talk to me about Tommy John.
Didnt he already have it?
How long does it hold up?
Im being serious.
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Anywhere from one year to forever.
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TJ surgery has gotten better and better. Most pitchers totally recover. Now and then some don't, but Darvish has had a full year on his new elbow. Most pitchers continue to get better. Now and then a pitcher has a reoccurence but while a consideration, it is thought that a successful surgery means the odds of another TJS is the same as any other pitcher.
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His velocity is as good or better than ever, for what it's worth.
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My spidey senses are tingling. The Gimenez thing doesn't feel like a coincidence.
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Chicago Tribune
@chicagotribune
4m4 minutes ago
More
A person with direct knowledge of the discussions says the Cubs are having active talks with free-agent pitcher Yu Darvish http://trib.in/2Dz4N8s
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Well then.
Better than Cobb or Arrieta.
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7 years is what I’ve seen quoted for TJS. Some last longer, some shorter. If you are talking about a 5 year deal that would but him at 7 years. The velocity and stuff being back is the big thing for him.
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This has to be some good news . . .
Yu Darvish - S - Dodgers
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press was told by a club official who has been in contact with the Twins front office that it's doubtful the team will be able to sign Yu Darvish.
Darvish's market appears to finally be heating up, which could take the Twins out of the running. "They aren’t giving him $150 million," the club official told Berardino. It's probably a stretch to expect Darvish to receive a $150 million deal, but the bidding could still go higher than what the Twins have in mind. It was reported Monday that the Cubs are having "active talks" with Darvish, but teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Yankees, and Rangers are also in the mix here. The Twins have an obvious need for a starter, but they might have to pivot to a second-tier name like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn.
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I’m only posting this because the offseason is so brutally slow, so take it with several thousand grains of salt...but apparently, a Brewerfan.net poster who apparently had the Lucroy trade early a couple years ago (among other smaller deals) says the Cubs have Darvish.
http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=36301&start=160
I’m very skeptical, but it’s something. Seems like if some random forum poster knows something, Rosenthal or someone should break it soon.
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I will say Darvish has been pretty active on twitter when rumors pop up to either confirm or deny them, but he’s been radio silent on this.
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I'm all about the Fox Mulder thing on this but... Why would the Brewers be the first to know Darvish was signing with the Cubs?
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If it takes 5/125, I'm there - reluctantly. That's probably the cutoff for me. No 6th unless it's a club option with a small buyout or an almost impossible vest.
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I'm all about the Fox Mulder thing on this but... Why would the Brewers be the first to know Darvish was signing with the Cubs?
There was a Darvish/Brewers rumor yesterday, so I guess that’s the connection.
It’s probably nothing.
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There was a Darvish/Brewers rumor yesterday, so I guess that’s the connection.
It’s probably nothing.
I get that, but I still don't see why they (and thus someone connected to them) would know before anybody connected to the Cubs.
If I were a poser trying to sound like an insider, saying "Darvish to the Cubs" is a decent bet. Seems like the most likely place where he'd end up.
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Mooney just published a story speculative Darvish to the Cubs piece on the Athletic that has no real info in it.
I could see Darvish’s agent telling the Brewers we have x from the Cubs, do you want to beat it or he’s going there.
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I can't imagine why someone connected to the Brewers would know who Darvish was going to sign with (other than the Brewers, perhaps).
But it isn't unusual for the Cubs Front Office to keep pretty strong radio silence on large deals. I never heard any rumors about the Fowler signing before it was announced, nor had I heard anything about getting Russell from Oakland. Most accurate Cubs rumors seem to come from the prospective free agent or from the potential trading partner, rather than from a Cub source.
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Yeah, but he obviously seems to have fooled that forum in the past...so he seems to be smart enough to say something like “Darvish and Cubs have momentum” instead of “Darvish to Cubs” if he wants to keep the scam going. Still gets credit with the first statement while leaving an out.
Just playing devil’s advocate, you’re probably right.
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...a Brewerfan.net poster who apparently had the Lucroy trade early a couple years ago (among other smaller deals) says the Cubs have Darvish..... I’m very skeptical, but it’s something. Seems like if some random forum poster knows something, Rosenthal or someone should break it soon.
Thanks for rumor, br. Always fun. We'll see what happens. Still 3 weeks till pitchers and catchers report, so still plenty of time.
And you never know, sometimes smoke/fire. This would be a rumor from Brewers side, to go with a rumor from Twins side, that those teams might think they are out. Could imagine a deal where Cubs are in active talks, and have upped an offer; agent tells Twins and Brewers that Cubs are at $125/5, so get me your better/best offer or else I don't have time to be talking and texting and emailing about this, I've got Cubs discussions to focus on. If the Twins and Brewers realize they aren't going to match or beat that, maybe then they leak to a reporter or mention it to a friend that they're out. Of course, could also easily imagine an agent bluffing; maybe he's telling there's a $125/5 offer to bluff up their bids, when in reality there is no such actual bid from Cubs or anybody else? Who knows for now.
Kind of fun. Heh heh, whenever I check bleacher bums, I'm always kinda hoping there's something new in Cubs in '18; maybe something has happened!
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I’m only posting this because the offseason is so brutally slow, so take it with several thousand grains of salt...but apparently, a Brewerfan.net poster who apparently had the Lucroy trade early a couple years ago (among other smaller deals) says the Cubs have Darvish.
http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=36301&start=160
I’m very skeptical, but it’s something. Seems like if some random forum poster knows something, Rosenthal or someone should break it soon.
I wonder if there is ever a post on another teams board quoting one of our posters on something? That would be funny and cool to read. :)
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If we get other teams reposting Jes doesn't that count as industrial sabotage?
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Source: Yu Darvish is increasingly likely to sign with an @MLB team this week. #Twins are among the teams with whom he is engaged in ongoing discussions. @MLBNetwork
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Deeg, would you please get the Dervish deal done.
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Let me make a call.
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The Cubs were supposedly marginally interested, so I guess it's interesting that this market may be moving too.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
lorenzo cain has begun informing some teams they are out of consideration. unclear exactly how close he is to a final call, though, as he's believed to be weighing a variety of offers.
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Let me make a call.
I thought you said yesterday you didn't want him anymore, if he's beyond $125/5? Think pretty fair chance the Twins, and maybe Brewers or Cardinals too, might be willing to beat that....
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I saw a poster on the Twins board say Deeg can keep this one under 5/$125.
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Even if they were interested in Cain, the Cubs probably weren't in at this level.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
lorenzo cain is believed to have received several 4-year offers at this point. unclear exactly when his call is coming though he has narrowed the field.
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I'll get him here for 5-125. Word is he likes deep dish rather than lutefisk.
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I'll get him here for 5-125. Word is he likes deep dish rather than lutefisk.
mmmmmmmm lutefisk
(https://i2.wp.com/jenieats.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/IMG_3239.jpg?fit=676%2C507)
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Some dork at ESPN is ranking the Twins and Brewers ahead of the Cubs in the Darvish sweepstakes. Deeg must not have made his call yet.
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Bleacher Nation tweeted that the Cubs had a large move on WS odds on off shore beating markets for no news....
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I'm working the phones. Bluefin tuna are changing hands. I expect an announcement around midday tomorrow.
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Jon Greenburg has an interesting article on The Athletic from his fairly extensive interview with Theo.
https://theathletic.com/221674/2018/01/25/theo-epsteins-almanac-a-fallow-winter-could-still-lead-to-a-prosperous-spring-and-summer-for-the-cubs/
Here are a couple of excerpts:
On the Cubs' closer situation and why the Cubs generally limit using their "closer" in the 9th inning.
And yes, the Cubs are done looking for a closer. Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr. are the backups at that spot, if necessary.
“When we signed [Morrow], we told him, in our minds, he was our closer unless somehow, we were able to bring back Wade Davis,” Epstein said. “It’s the best role for him.”
Like Davis last year, the Cubs plan on using Morrow exclusively in the ninth inning or later. (Davis entered with two outs in the eighth one time in the regular season, on Sept. 15.) If you're the kind of person who argues about old-school baseball vs. new-school analytics, Epstein explains how tradition wins out in how the Cubs still relate to closers.
“With Wade going exclusively in the ninth, that structure allowed him to stay healthy and thrive,” Epstein said. “That should serve Morrow well also. This is one of the areas where optimal analytical usage butts against reality. The best way to play someone like Morrow is matching up against different parts of the order in different innings. That’s where you can get the greatest impact from a shutdown guy. But in reality, using him the way we used Davis should allow him to thrive over what we expect is a seven-month season. I’ll take suboptimal usage on a nightly basis for a better chance to stay healthy over the course of seven months.”
On Duensing completing the Cubs' bullpen for 2018.[
“We were really happy in the end that we were able to bring Duensing back,” Epstein said. “We made a strong run at him early in the offseason and it didn’t look like it would work out. But he made a tough decision to leave a little more money to come back and be happy with us. That really completed our bullpen moves.”
On Theo's apparent openess to trading young core player(s) for pitching.
“I wasn’t going to rush into anything, but it was something we were open to,” he said. “We have two extra starting-caliber position players on any given night and we were going into the offseason short on pitching. If it was something we weren’t open to, we wouldn’t be doing our jobs. We explored a lot of a different possibilities, but in the end there just wasn’t a deal available that would give us a fair return back. We didn’t want to take less talent or control just to add a pitching prospect. Balancing the roster wasn’t that fundamental to make a bad deal happen.”
The reality is Russell and Schwarber, to name two tradable players, had uneven seasons that suppressed their value. Given their age and contracts — not to mention the Cubs’ payroll space — there’s no reason to sell low.
But there’s more to it than negativity, Epstein said.
“Our position player core is a big part of identity and we really believe in them,” he said. “It’s not a coincidence the Royals, us and the Astros all developed a position player core that came up together, went through adversity together, learned to win at the big league level, lost in the postseason and then came back in the postseason to win a championship.
“Trading away too much of the core would have chipped away at that identity a little bit and left us in a weaker position because these guys are a big part of who we are. Building around them and making the pitching work from year to year makes sense for us.”
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https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/tht-annual-2018/batting-practice-is-probably-a-waste-of-everyones-time/
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Thanks, Ron, interesting, and sensible.
I think I agree re closer, in part but not in full. Having a defined closer structures life for him, the other relievers, and the manager. That's maybe helpful. And I agree it protects the closer from getting overworked.
But I do think it runs the risk of overly irregular usage. For others, Maddon/Hickey can set up usage habits that protects against over-use. But can also decide how to keep them from getting rusty.
I don't think save situations necessarily schedule themselves rightly. Thought there were stretches last year when Davis pitched so little that he got rusty. Then suddenly he'd be going back-to-back-to-back. Think it's better to avoid weeks without at least two appearances, while likewise limiting weeks with as many as four.
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There is no reason why the Cubs could not adhere to a schedule like that. In the rare situations where a closer could (should) be used 4 games in a row, they would not lose much to insert Edwards or Cishek could be used once without losing much effectiveness. The most difficult part would probably using the closer in a non-closing role. I don't know about Morrow, but it seems to me that most closers perform badly when placed in non-closing games.
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Am I the only one here who is strongly confident that we'll add one of the big 3 [Darvish,Arietta,Cobb]?
I'd even go as far as to say Ill be surprised if we dont sign Darvish.
My order of preference would go Darvish,Arietta,Cobb BTW.
I'd love to find a leadoff option for cheap too.
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On St. Louis ESPN this morning they had a baseball writer on who had an interesting perspective on the free agent market this winter. He said that a third of the teams have no hope so why spend money on players none of whom would turn a franchise around by themselves, one third are so dominant they don't really need any of these players at the price they are currently demanding, and the middle third can't afford to spend the kind of money being demanded for the "chance" of getting better. He said it's not collusion, it's common sense.
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Completion of Yelich trade to Milwaukee certainly does nothing to undermine the credibility of the supposed Brewers insider. Claimed the Cubs were going to sign Darvish, and the Brewers were 95% probably going to trade for Yelich.
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...one third are so dominant they don't really need any of these players at the price they are currently demanding...
Not sure how absurd the demand prices may be, and how prohibitive.
But in a world where only two teams make the World Series and only one wins, there's still plenty of competitive drive for teams like the Cubs to get better.
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Brew Crew getting Yelich is great news for us with Darvish.
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FWIW another board's "insider" Marlin Bystro (who has demonstrably been right several times in the past) is betting on Darvish to the Cubs. Though to his credit he admits his sources aren't as highly-placed as they used to be.
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His source (or more likely, his source's source) is with the Diamondbacks now.
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I knew losing Jason Parks would suck... ;)
I think there is an industry consensus building that the Cubs will get Darvish, but it could certainly end up being wrong.
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I got too excited thinking we had Ohtani to get too excited this time. SHOW ME THE SIGNED CONTRACT!
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High Heat predicts 2 trades for the Brewers, but he is going ice fishing and expects a Santana trade soon, possibly today.
Just for fun I looked up the rosters for the Brewers and Cubs.
The "rebuilding" Brewers will feature a line up with 4 position player starters over 30 and only younger than Cubs at 1 position. I'm counting Zobrist as a utility guy or it would be 2. When Zobrist doesn't start the Cubs will have 0 position players over 30.
The Brewers pitching is younger, but the Cubs only have 1 starter currently over 30 in the rotation in Lester.
Looking at the farm systems using Fangraphs rankings.
The Brewers have 1 position prospect with 55 grade, and 3 with a 50 grade. The have 2 55 pitchers and 1 50 pitcher.
The Cubs currently have 1 50 grade SS in Aldeman and 1 50 grade pitcher in Alzolay. The thing is Dela Cruz, Alzolat, Aldeman, Albertos, Little and Lange could all bust out this year and have much higher grades.
But what does that mean in projections? The Brewers have 3 prospects projecting to 2.5 WAR/season. Are they really rebuilding? Is there window of competition really longer than the Cubs? Brewers fans really seem to think so, but I just can't see it.
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Sharma on the Brewers and Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/222873/2018/01/26/how-the-cubs-will-or-wont-react-to-the-brewers-big-moves/ (https://theathletic.com/222873/2018/01/26/how-the-cubs-will-or-wont-react-to-the-brewers-big-moves/)
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Blue, in my brain Josh Hader seems key for Brewers. He seemed overpowering in relief, fabulous. **IF** he was to transition into rotation, and was able to sustain that level of dominance over 6 innings every 5th day, the Brewers might be very good. But if Hader ends up being a setup reliever and perhaps not much better than Strop, it will be lots harder for them.
Agree, it's not that young a team, they're trying to compete now. With Yelich and Braun, and now Cain, they've got some really good players. We'll see.
The Cubs being younger is meant to allow getting better. We'll see whether younger guys improve much. Having come up early, and now with multiple years of experience already, it remains to be seen whether their youth will lead guys like Javy, Russell, Schwarber, and Almora to improve significantly. Hoping so.
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I don't mean to say the the Brewers are bad, they are a nice team. The Brewers message board just seems to think that 2020 on the Brewers are just better positioned than the Cubs and I really struggle to see how that is the case.
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Cubs signed this guy to a minor league deal:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=roth--002mic
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I was going to make a joke about Jes liking because I remembered him throwing 84 at one point, but his velocity last year was up to 90. He has largely been a not great starter, but I wonder if he might make an interesting reliever conversion.
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MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM @MLBNetworkRadio
@ChrisGimenez5 says he has talked to Yu Darvish (@faridyu) "probably 10 or 12" times since signing, but concedes he "has nothing to do" with where Darvish signs.
You can listen to the full sound clip here: https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/957078799883128832
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If Darvish signs elsewhere, I hope Gimenez enjoys his summer with the Granite City River Rats.
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MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM @MLBNetworkRadio
@ChrisGimenez5 says he has talked to Yu Darvish (@faridyu) "probably 10 or 12" times since signing, but concedes he "has nothing to do" with where Darvish signs.
You can listen to the full sound clip here: https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/957078799883128832
Yes, I'm quite sure the subject never came up, nope...
Gimenez also said "Of course if he wants to sign here I'm not going to say no."
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
Not sure how close Yu Darvish is to a decision, but the field appears to be narrowing. Some execs think #Cubs are still the frontrunner. The rest of the starting market is waiting for him to make a call.
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Would be fun to have a blow-by-blow knowledge of how a process like this goes. Cubs have pretty much made best offer, and are just waiting for Darvish to take it or leave it? Agent is just holding out in hopes that some other team steps in and ups their offer, or that Cubs will get nervous and raise theirs? First five years are pretty well agreed upon, and they are just haggling over how the non-guaranteed 6th year will look, in terms of how much the Cubs would need to pay to buy it out, and how many innings Yu will need to vest it? For example, Cubs want a modest $2M buyout, with 350 innings over previous seasons to vest; agent is asking for $6M buyout and only 200/2 innings/years to vest?
Or, maybe somebody else has a better dollar offer in, but Yu would rather go to Cubs? Maybe agent is waiting to give Cubs a chance to boost there offer and make it at least more competitive before agent and Yu make decision?
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I think your last scenario is most likely to be correct.
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I'm beginning to lose confidence in Deeg and his telephone technique.
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I’m sure not just the agent is waiting to get every dollar he can, but the player’s association as well. The MLBPA puts a lot of pressure on players to get the best deal they can, and I’m sure there’s even more pressure given how slow the market has been this year.
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Heh, someone tweeted a fake ESPN reporter ("Mike Timmons") said on the radio the Cubs were "out" on Darvish, and it turned into a minor hurricane of panic.
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Would be fun to have a blow-by-blow knowledge of how a process like this goes. Cubs have pretty much made best offer, and are just waiting for Darvish to take it or leave it?
Think of how different this is than it was in 2006 when Hendry was determined to sign Soriano, and to do so quickly so he ended up having the Cubs bid against themselves.
I get the feeling some of the impatient posters here would sort of like the Cubs to do that again, and I suspect that the fans who want to see their teams do that are later among the first ones to complain about the inevitable later year albatross contracts the teams end up stuck with.
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Judge and Stanton bat back-to-back? Who cleans up in Boston? Answering baseball's five biggest lineup questions
1. Where does Boone place Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the Yankees' lineup?
2. Who will hit second for the Giants?
3. Where does Mike Trout bat in the Angels’ lineup?
4. Who will bat cleanup for the Red Sox?
5. Who hits leadoff for the Cubs?
Olney goes on to speculate about what the next collective bargaining talks will be like in light of the current free-agent situation..
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18113/judge-and-stanton-back-to-back-who-cleans-up-in-boston-answering-baseballs-five-biggest-lineup-questions
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Jim Hendry was on an airplane when Soriano was signed.
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So he was high?
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.....Olney goes on to speculate about what the next collective bargaining talks will be like in light of the current free-agent situation..
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18113/judge-and-stanton-back-to-back-who-cleans-up-in-boston-answering-baseballs-five-biggest-lineup-questions
Interesting to talk about working towards a spending floor. Trying make the tax less impacting would help the union.
Not sure I really see the problem with the current off-season. Sure, it's different than before. But, there aren't many studs, (none, really), and two of the main four guys remaining are Boras boys (Arrieta and Martinez.) Boras often pushes deals really late. (Scherzer, Maddux, heh heh Brownlie, etc., just thinking of Cub deals....). He's often gotten teams to bid up against themselves just by waiting longer, even when there was nobody else bidding high enough to force those bid-ups.
Back at the start of November, there were multiple articles in which guys would rank the FA's and project their deals, often with input from an agent or front-office sources. Remember when there were several suggesting $48/4 for Cobb, and we were thinking those sounded pretty reasonable? To date, with one or two exceptions almost all of the deals that have been signed have come in as high or usually much higher than the projections. I don't see any indication of price-fixing or collusion based on the deals in.
If Arrieta/Boras expected $200, I think that might be unrealistic expectations by players more than collusion by clubs.
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Part of the problem is the CBA encourages tanking. So being a mildly competitive team keeps you from getting amateur talent that you need. Teams giving large, long contracts to older players will likely continue to be rare since old school GM’s are mostly gone from the game and owners are less likely to listen to Boros and spend big. The players should get rid of arbitration and move FA up earlier and get rid of teams incentives to play around with service time. Reworking the draft caps would be helpful too.
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Has Deeg gotten Darvish signed yet?
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I'm not sure the status quo, with median payroll of $140M, and as many teams over $190 as are under $90, is all that crummy for the union. Not sure the majority of the union is going to want to strike over that?
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The MLB players % of total revenue is falling. MLB likes to use net income to calculate player % and other leagues use some form of revenue.
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I had him ready to sign, but he was worried that the comments here might get too nasty if he has a bad game and now he's back on the fence.
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Heyman had a really say-nothing tweet about the Cubs earlier today.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
folks are now expecting darvish deal may go down this week. they've also seen cubs as the favorite. but other teams have been involved.
Translation: Darvish might sign this week, but he might not. The Cubs may be the favorite, but someone else may be the favorite.
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I had him ready to sign, but he was worried that the comments here might get too nasty if he has a bad game and now he's back on the fence.
Yeah, Ron can be pretty brutal. (Let's see if he thinks THAT is funny.)
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Heyman had a really say-nothing tweet about the Cubs earlier today.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
folks are now expecting darvish deal may go down this week. they've also seen cubs as the favorite. but other teams have been involved.
Translation: Darvish might sign this week, but he might not. The Cubs may be the favorite, but someone else may be the favorite.
My wife can predict whether a pregnant mother is going to have a boy or a girl. She's remarkably right 50% of the time!
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Couldn't he just put Craig on ignore? Of course, that didn't work for poor Nic Jackson.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46358/if-you-think-the-cubs-havent-made-a-big-addition-this-offseason-chili-davis-will-prove-you-wrong
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If Darvish isn't tough enough to withstand Beerfan asking if he's been released yet or JBN comparing him to a bag of horse p iss or Kevin Orie, he's probably better off going to Minnesota anyway.
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Latest report (credible, LA Times) is that Darvish wants to return to LA and is waiting to see if the Dodgers can move enough salary to make him a competitive offer. If so, he really has no incentive to hurry since the market is pretty much waiting on him. It’s entirely possible we couldn’t sign Cobb now even if we wanted, as he and Jake may not sign before Darvish does and sets the market.
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Rangers reporter is now saying the same thing about Darvish and the Rangers. This off season blows.
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Seems a little strange that beat writers for two teams basically report the same thing at the same time about their team. Could be Darvish/his agent leaking information that's not necessarily true.
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Here are the reports:
Andy McCullough of the LA Times that Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers to shed money:
Link: My understanding is that Yu Darvish has made clear he would like to return to the Dodgers, and part of the delay in his free agency is related to waiting to see if the team can move some of the money. The Dodgers have explored scenarios for moving useful but (theoretically) extraneous assets such as Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Given the fact that those players are still Dodgers and Darvish is still a free agent, you can guess how the market has reacted to this gambit by the front office.
T.R. Sullivan (Rangers beat reporter) for MLB.com saying all signs are pointing to Darvish wanting to return to Texas:
Link: It seems obvious -- reading all the signs -- that Darvish wants to return to the Rangers. The problem is the Rangers keep saying that it is "unlikely" that they'll be active at the top of the free-agent pitching market. Certainly the term "unlikely" leaves wiggle room, and the tedious dance continues with Rangers fans left tantalized by the wait.
Despite all other factors being tossed about, Darvish could be the one keeping the free-agent market from moving. He is the top starting pitcher on the market, and those guys usually sign in November. If Darvish were to sign, it could break the inertia. But he may be waiting to see if the Rangers blink first.
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It's entirely possible that the Dodgers and Rangers are Yu's preferred destinations, and he's got some kind of tacit understanding with them that if they can move salary they'll make a competitive offer. The timing of the two reports certainly isn't coincidental, but they doesn't necessarily mean they're BS.
I hope the hangup with the Cubs isn't an unwillingness to offer a 5th year. No way you'll get Darvish on a straight 4-year offer, and I don't think you should - 5 years is quite realistic based on his track record. If it's about not giving him a 6th year, that I'm fully on-board with.
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It could be true. But either way, I think there's a good chance it's some kind of posturing. He's either trying to push the Cubs to make a bigger offer by hinting at interest from LA/Texas that isn't really there, or he's giving LA/Texas a last chance to make their move they need to make before adding him.
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That seems pretty realistic to me.
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Agree with posts. Could be posturing. And could totally be true. Hometown discount or hometown preference is normal. Why move from beautiful LA, which has a great team, and has better World Series chances than the Cubs particular if he resigns, and where he's made friends? Why leave if they can make him a competitive offer? Same might go with Texas, he's played there for years, he's comfortable and has made friends; if they make a competitive offer why move to Chicago?
But, the ability/willingness to make a competitive offer would seem a challenge. Camp doesn't open for another couple of weeks, so no rush for him.
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If he was saying how impressed he was with the Cub presentation, he may have been trying to get more money from Texas or LA? I feel so...used.
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Interesting note on Duensing:
The team has tried to add some free agents this offseason — The Chronicle has learned that Oakland offered left-handed reliever Brian Duensing $3 million more than the two-year, $7 million deal he accepted from the Cubs. The A’s also made outfielder Austin Jackson a one-year offer; he took a two-year offer from the Giants.
http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Roster-turnover-other-A-s-issues-hot-topics-at-12530786.php?
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Interesting note on Duensing:
The team has tried to add some free agents this offseason — The Chronicle has learned that Oakland offered left-handed reliever Brian Duensing $3 million more than the two-year, $7 million deal he accepted from the Cubs. The A’s also made outfielder Austin Jackson a one-year offer; he took a two-year offer from the Giants.
http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Roster-turnover-other-A-s-issues-hot-topics-at-12530786.php?
$3,000,000 is a little over 30% of the nearly $9.8 million in total salary Duensing has made in his career up to this point. Definitely not chump change to him at all. Pretty shocking he'd turn that kind of money down.
Gotta tip your hat to him.
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Seems a little strange that beat writers for two teams basically report the same thing at the same time about their team. Could be Darvish/his agent leaking information that's not necessarily true.
As shocking as the idea that there might have been gambling at Rick's place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMIyDf3gBoY
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As shocking as the idea that there might have been gambling at Rick's place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMIyDf3gBoY
That's a movie scene that will bring a smile to my face every time I see it.
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My wife and I watched the entire movie New Years Eve, and much of it had pretty much flown right by here when she had watched it before. She hadn't really liked it before having it explained.
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Our local indy theater showed it a couple of weeks ago to commemorate its 75th anniversary. You probably ought to take her to see it on the big screen if it ever shows up in Chattanooga sometime. That's the way to go see it.
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Theo's grandfather and great-uncle were the screenwriters.
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Our local indy theater showed it a couple of weeks ago to commemorate its 75th anniversary. You probably ought to take her to see it on the big screen if it ever shows up in Chattanooga sometime. That's the way to go see it.
If I ever get back to Chattanooga....
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FWIW, here is the latest from Chris Gimenez, via Carrie Muskat. In this piece, Gimenez is less playful and more straightforward, not only about Darvish, but also how he became a Cub and what his expectations are.
https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-gimenez-downplays-effect-on-yu-darvish/c-265496934 (https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-gimenez-downplays-effect-on-yu-darvish/c-265496934)
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I'm starting to worry this may drag on right up to spring training.
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I agree that the only reason Darvish hasn't signed somewhere is that he's hoping someone offers just a hair more. I just hope the team he wants to offer more is the Cubs and that he just isn't using the Cubs to get a better offer elsewhere. It's a game of chicken. I would guess if the Cubs signed Cobb tomorrow, both Arrieta and Darvish crap because their price just took a hit with a major player out.
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Don't think Theo is the type to let his offseason plans be held hostage. If Cubs aren't happy with Darvish's timeine to sign, my guess is they'll say "you've got 24 hrs or we're pulling the deal," and then move on as appropriate.
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I don't see Theo as the type to cut off his own nose to spite his face, either. How many options does Darvish have really? Maybe an ultimatum offer will come at some point, but it's probably not this week.
The thing is, Darvish is certainly deserving of a 5-year deal in a normal, non-collusive market.
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Think teams may be afraid of Darvish's health?
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I don't see any reason why the Cubs would give Darvish a deadline, unless Cobb (or whoever) indicated he was ready to sign with them and they wanted to secure the situation. They didn't sign Fowler until the spring training reporting date.
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Jon Heyman
Verified account @JonHeyman
17m17 minutes ago
brewers are talking to darvish, and are said to be among the more aggressive teams to this point. no word on how close a deal might be though. from me and @RobertMurrayFRS
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I've got to think Darvish is going to make his decision very soon. This makes two days in a row of teams that had been more or less dismissed suddenly being reported to be aggressive again. It feels a lot like posturing.
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When are we going to get the report that Darvish really wants to go to the Marlins and they're trying to clear payroll room to get him?
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Brewers beat writer isn't sure about the Brewers' renewed interest. In a reply to Heyman's tweet:
Adam McCalvy @AdamMcCalvy
We'll see whether this goes beyond talking. Sometimes stuff like this gets out there to push a player's preferred teams along.
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Think teams may be afraid of Darvish's health?
Of course. Everyone knows Japanese pitchers are always ready to have their arms fall off.
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Deeg, it's time for you to open YOUR personal reserves and supplement the Cubs' offer. We're counting on you!
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26 cents and a half-bottle of sake isn't going to move the needle.
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That's 24 cents and any sake more than the rest of us. Combined.
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I will chip in another .26 if you give me the bottle of sake.
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High Heat from the Brewers board is claiming the Cubs have the high offer on the table for Darvish FWIW.
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High Heat from the Brewers board is claiming the Cubs have the high offer on the table for Darvish FWIW.
I'm guessing not much.
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I still think we get him.
Im certain we'll get 1 of the 3.
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High Heat from the Brewers board is claiming the Cubs have the high offer on the table for Darvish FWIW.
At this point, I think that HighHeat guy is basically another ABTY or BigBird. He probably has some contact, but that contact is something like a sales guy with the Brewers who has lunch once or twice a month with the assistant GM's assistant. He was definitive on the Cubs signing Darvish and the Brewers being out a week ago, and now he thinks the Brewers have a 40% chance of signing Darvish. He was similarly definitive on Santana being traded last weekend, and Santana is still with the Brewers. He called a Yelich deal, but he never really said anything but the deal was likely and that it would take Brinson+ (Brison+ was the obvious package).
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I think he has a better source than ABTY, but his source isn’t in Stearns inner circle and he’s prone to making sweeping statements when his spice material doesn’t back it up. Rumors are never going to be 100%, even if we had info coming straight from Theo on this board.
Rosenthal is reporting the hold up is Brewers entering mix and Dodgers/Yanks trying to dump cash and the fact that nobody has met Sarvish’s number yet. The last bit might be the most important part.
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BlueJay makes the pertinent point. Short of Darvish or his agent, there is no source that could possibly know who he is going to sign with, or even who is the current high bidder. Even if Epstein (or any GM) WAS a source, all he could tell you for sure is that he is very interested, and that he has or has not an offer on the table.
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The article I read this morning wasn't very encouraging. It said it's between the Brewers and the Dodgers. I think the speculation that Darvish would prefer to go back to LA has merit. It explains the long wait.
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Or nobody has met his price/years yet. I think there is a good shot that is the only reason he hasn't signed anywhere yet.
The Dodgers to unload enough money are going to have to hurt the team by giving up quality players or premium prospects to unload Kemp.
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I hope he sits out at this point. Would be entertaining to see this run into april.
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Or nobody has met his price/years yet. I think there is a good shot that is the only reason he hasn't signed anywhere yet....
Yes. Even so, not sure that's very meaningful. Every agent's "price" is the best he can get.
*Maybe originally they figured Scherzer ($210/7) would be good price/years to set. It's not like he's going to sit out the year if he doesn't get that price.
*Or maybe they anticipated a realistic price of $130/5 guaranteed ($150/6 if 6th year vests), and Theo made that offer in December. Wouldn't the agent still sit on it and allow the chance for somebody else go higher, or for Theo get antsy and bump it to $136/5 ($156/6 vesting year 6)?
Don't imagine it's quite like a bag of cinnamon hearts that has a list price of $1.75, and my wife either does or doesn't add it to the shopping cart. Whatever gets offered, the agent will end up taking the best; and whatever the best may be in December or now, he can wait in hopes of getting variably more.
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If we think we can get Darvish on a 4 year deal, I have to assume we were never that serious about him in the first place and just using him to try and lower Cobb's price. That was never going to happen.
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It would be best to sign Cobb before Darvish goes elsewhere though and Cobb becomes the "it" guy on the market.
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The article from MLB this morning said that the feeling was the Cubs were actually more interested in bringing back Arrieta. Not sure on the thinking behind it.
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I'm on board with bringing back Arrieta.
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It would be best to sign Cobb before Darvish goes elsewhere though and Cobb becomes the "it" guy on the market.
I don't especially want Cobb, but I'm inclined to agree. If Darvish isn't going to be the guy it'd be smarter to move before he signs, because once he does Cobb's (and Arrieta's) leverage goes way up.
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Don't imagine it's quite like a bag of cinnamon hearts that has a list price of $1.75, and my wife either does or doesn't add it to the shopping cart. Whatever gets offered, the agent will end up taking the best; and whatever the best may be in December or now, he can wait in hopes of getting variably more.
What if the Cubs are offering 4 years/$108 with a vesting option for the 5th year and the Twins and Brewers are offering 5/$115 and Darvish is looking for 6/$150 million. The agent may very well be trying to get the Cubs to guarantee a 5th year or hope that one of the Dodgers/Yankees can get involved and drive up the price. Yeah at some point Darvish might have to settle for less money/years than he wants, but there isn't a rush to get him signed so trying to get a team to up their offer isn't hurting anything at this point.
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If we think we can get Darvish on a 4 year deal, I have to assume we were never that serious about him in the first place and just using him to try and lower Cobb's price. That was never going to happen.
deeg, I think you and I have been imagining somewhat different narratives. perhaps reflecting different scouting valuations or market valuations, I suppose.
Some of your posts, this included, seem to suggest that Cubs are offering 4, and are stuck on going five. Mine is that the Cubs are fine with 5, but are balking at going six or giving easy incentives for six.
The won't-go-five narrative lacks explanatory power, I think.
*The problem I have with the 4-year notion is that it just seems way unrealistic. Yu isn't Sherzer, but he's got enough reputation and success that somebody is going to at least give him a 5th year if that's the trigger to make a deal. Everybody knows the price of getting a good player in FA is settling for extra bad length. So to think that the Cubs have been in significant discussions, and have been repeatedly ID'd as a lead or at least serious candidate, that seems implausible to me on only a 4-year offer. Hoyer's smart enough to know somebody will add an extra year if that gets them their target, so why would the Cubs have thought they have a serious chance and be holding up other contingency plans if they're only offering four and know they won't budge?
*OK, maybe the four-year view does have some explanatory power: Why the Cubs didn't originally expect to have much chance; why Yu hasn't signed; why agent has been calling anybody and everybody, from Milwaukee to Minnesota to Philly and beyond, including small markets: "For the moment all we've got is 4. So put together a decent 5-year offer, and you might have a serious chance....")
My expectation that the Cubs must have understood they'd at least need to go five may reflect a somewhat different scouting/market valuation from you. You are a huge Darvish supporter, but at the same time you've said you'd not go beyond $125/5. I don't think he's that great, so my scouting may not be as enthusiastic; but at the same time maybe I scout him even higher than you do, because I think the pitching market in mlb is so inflated that he's certain to be able to get at least five years somewhere, and that $125/5 is probably on the conservative end. So, maybe you're seeing $125/5 as a huge stretch and pushing the limits; and I'm saying "Oh well, that's probably the price of milk these days."
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What if the Cubs are offering 4 years/$108 with a vesting option for the 5th year and the Twins and Brewers are offering 5/$115 and Darvish is looking for 6/$150 million. The agent may very well be trying to get the Cubs to guarantee a 5th year or hope that one of the Dodgers/Yankees can get involved and drive up the price. Yeah at some point Darvish might have to settle for less money/years than he wants, but there isn't a rush to get him signed so trying to get a team to up their offer isn't hurting anything at this point.
Exactly. He's trying to get a better/best deal, and by waiting he might something better than he's got today. What's the rush? Agents know that when you wait, sometimes bids go up. Sometimes by the very team that's been high-bid all along.
Also agree on some of the nuance in deciding what is the "best offer". Yes, a shorter offer may have higher AAV. But which is better, $108/4 or $115/5? Is $135/6 really better than $125/5?
And also totally agree that they've almost certainly been trying to get the Cubs to guarantee the 6th year. Or at least to make it vest more easily; and at least to make the 6th year buyout option as expensive as possible. While at the same time trying to get Minnesota and Milwaukee to up their AAV on their 6 guaranteed years, or whatever.
By the way, this is naive I'm sure, but what does AAV stand for, by the way? Why do we say "AAV" instead of "AVE" in baseball?
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Or the market changed this year?
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Average annual value.
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Craig, I'm not assuming the Cubs are stuck on 4. I'm just saying that if they are, they must not be very serious about Darvish as in "actually trying to sign him". And if they aren't, the Occam's Razor explanation for their "interest" is they're trying to get Cobb for less years and money.
Of course it's entirely possible that the Cubs are serious, and they've offered 5, and the hangup is Darvish wants 6, or he really wants the Dodgers, or whatever.
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I think when Theo and Hoyer went south and spent a day with him, with a prepared presentation, it indicated serious interest. I could be wrong.
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Average annual value.
Thanks!
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Craig, I'm not assuming the Cubs are stuck on 4. I'm just saying that if they are, they must not be very series about Darvish as in "actually trying to sign him". And if they aren't, the Occam's Razor explanation for their "interest" is they're trying to get Cobb for less years and money.
Of course it's entirely possible that the Cubs are serious, and they've offered 5, and the hangup is Darvish wants 6, or he really wants the Dodgers, or whatever.
Thanks, that makes sense. I think they're actually trying to sign him, but what do I know. I do think they've been trying to sign him for a reasonable-value deal.
Maybe he was never somebody they expected to sign, because they assumed that as is normal a good FA pitcher would get too much for too long. But then maybe they realized he wasn't getting much traffic, so they started wondering if perhaps he might actually be available at a price that made sense for them?
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Can they make a sixth year contingent on performance measures in year 5?
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If the Cubs end up signing him, I assume that's where some of the end-game negotiations will have been. Maybe agent is asking for 30 innings to vest and $10 to opt out. Club would prefer 180 innings to vest and $2 to opt out. Lots of compromise space in between.
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Can they make a sixth year contingent on performance measures in year 5?
Games or innings pitched.
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I have been told that the holdup isn’t the number of years but the AAV. The Cubs and others are trying to keep their acorns for next season’s FA class (obviously).
Was also told the order of likeliness of pitcher signings is Darvish, Cobb and then a distant 3rd is Arrietta.
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I trust your source, but we should go all Reb on you.
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High Heat's Archer trade rumor was confirmed by Rosenthal today.
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What is the rumor?
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Ken Rosenthal
Verified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
3h3 hours ago
More
Sources: #Brewers, casting wide net for SP, have had recent contact with #Rays on Archer. Deal would appear unlikely. TB might not view Santana or Phillips as enough of a centerpiece for a controllable ace. MIL might not want to cut deeper into its farm system after Yelich trade.
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What is the rumor?
HH reported that the Brewers where offering Santana+ for Archer and that the Rays where wanting Burnes included in any deal.
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Thanks.
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Great article the other day about how a better than expected 2017 may have lulled the Milwaukee brass into thinking they were closer than they actually are to competing. When that happens, the article said, the temptation to spend the future for the present screws you.
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I trust your source, but we should go all Reb on you.
That would be fun! Damn that really caught me off guard when he did that. All good.
My guy says it is a massive game of Chicken by all involved. Agents suggesting other teams are involved. Teams saying "then take the offer" or suggest they will happily move on to another target.
The Cubs will get 1 of the 3. Also speaking of chickens, it obviously hasn't hatched yet, but the Harper to the Cubs is quite legit.
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I like Darvish better than Cobb, but I wouldn't be upset with Cobb.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.
Edmonds lite.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.
Likely to be Leonys Martin's replacement
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.
Hopefully we won't be needing him, but fair enough depth signing if a bunch of guys get hurt this spring.
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Local guy, Park Ridge. Terrible hitter with a tiddle of power, decent corner OF, mediocre CF. Strictly insurance.
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According to MLB The Shows ratings Bourjos isnt as fast as I thought.
He's about the same as Heyward.
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I have been told that the holdup isn’t the number of years but the AAV. The Cubs and others are trying to keep their acorns for next season’s FA class (obviously).
Was also told the order of likeliness of pitcher signings is Darvish, Cobb and then a distant 3rd is Arrietta.
Thanks, JHawk. I appreciate the information.
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Thanks, JHawk. I appreciate the information.
Dave, Dave, Dave. You are supposed to demand that he send you an encrypted email with the source's name, naked pictures of both the source and himself as a gesture of good faith, and a pledge to not make any known any other rumors that he can't support with documentation. Sheesh. Get a clue.
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Dave, Dave, Dave. You are supposed to demand that he send you an encrypted email with the source's name, naked pictures of both the source and himself as a gesture of good faith, and a pledge to not make any known any other rumors that he can't support with documentation. Sheesh. Get a clue.
Curt,
Haven't I sent you enough naked pics to satiate your obsession?
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Curt,
Haven't I sent you enough naked pics to satiate your obsession?
You promised you wouldn't tell.
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Edmonds lite.
Reeeeeeeeal lite.
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Ken Rosenthal
Verified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
3h3 hours ago
More
Sources: #Brewers, casting wide net for SP, have had recent contact with #Rays on Archer. Deal would appear unlikely. TB might not view Santana or Phillips as enough of a centerpiece for a controllable ace. MIL might not want to cut deeper into its farm system after Yelich trade.
Archer as an ace.....
Is there anyone here who would rather have Archer starting for the Cubs next year than Hendricks?
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This is a trick question.
Everyone here but Jes would rather have Archer if it was straight up one or the other and a trade wasn't needed.
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I'd rather Hendricks if straight up one or the other. Archer may throw harder but Hendricks is a better pitcher.
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Yeah, because average pitchers are so much better than true aces.
Archer had an ERA+ of 100 in 2016 and 101 in 2017. Over the last two years has been as average as you can get.
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I would never trade Hendricks for Archer. I believe that Hendricks is the best pitcher currently on the staff, and will be even if they sign Darvish.
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This is still Jon Lester's pitching staff.
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I would never trade Hendricks for Archer. I believe that Hendricks is the best pitcher currently on the staff, and will be even if they sign Darvish.
Here is an interesting piece by Sahadev Sharma on the question who is likely to be the Cubs' ace in 2018. He appears to like both Hendricks and Quintana quite a lot.
https://theathletic.com/228058/2018/02/01/10-questions-who-will-be-the-cubs-ace-jon-lester-kyle-hendricks-jose-quintana-or-mystery-pitcher/
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It may be Jon Lester's staff, but he is at best the second best pitcher on the staff, and more likely the third best. That doesn't make him bad. It merely means others are better.
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Possible rotation rankings according to me
Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Cobb, Chatwood
Darvish, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood
Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Arrieta, Chatwood
Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood, Lynn
Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood, Montgomery
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Get ready for conspiracy theories. The Cubs have packed the team truck for Mesa, and the Chicago Tribune has some pictures:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-leave-for-spring-training-photos-20180202-photogallery.html
Check out the second picture:
(http://c-7npsfqifvt34x24x78x78x78x2euscjnhx2edpn.g00.chicagotribune.com/g00/3_c-7x78x78x78.dijdbhpusjcvof.dpn_/c-7NPSFQIFVT34x24iuuqx3ax2fx2fx78x78x78.uscjnh.dpnx2fjnh-6b85c024x2fuvscjofx2fdij-du-ptpsjp-du-tqu-dvct-x78sjhmfz-usvdl-23-du1174399104-31291313x2f861x2f861y533x3fj21d.nbslx3djnbhf_$/$/$/$/$/$)
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So we bought his shoes and not the rest of him?
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Maybe he's the same size as Darvish.
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Separate boxes for his shoes and his spikes. He's definitely gonna continue to be a Cub.
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John Heyman is reporting that Yu Darvish got up this morning and had breakfast. Not sure how this affects the Cub's chances.
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John Heyman is reporting that Yu Darvish got up this morning and had breakfast. Not sure how this affects the Cub's chances.
Let's break that down. Did he have Texas toast? That means he's leaning to Texas. Quiche? LA. Beer pancakes? Milwaukee. Frozen yogurt? Minneapolis. Bacon and eggs? Cubs Was he wearing a robe? PJ's only would mean practicing Cub road trips. Got to look at all the clues.
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Zips projections for the Cubs
3 WAR from every position except Rizzo and Bryant (5&6)
Rotation
Quintana 5
Lester 4
Hendricks 3
Montgomery/Chatwood 2
Bullpen 5
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You think Jake Arrietta feels like the fat girl at the prom that nobody will dance with right about now?
What if he shows up the first day of Spring Training and hands Theo and Jed a blank contract Andre Dawson style?
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Then he’ll be pitching for us for $500K next season.
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You know his wife's like "Damn Jake what happened to this 150 million you said we had coming to us? Little Jake needs school clothes you know."
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That'll happen about the same time as butterflies floats out of Boras" butt and Theo declares free beer every Saturday.
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You have to wonder if, for all the talk of collusion on the owner's parts, there isn't some collusion happening on the player's parts. Are they getting orders from the union to hold off on accepting contracts as a protest? Are Yu and Jake and Hosmer all sitting on a contract offers that are good enough for them but they've been instructed to hold off by the union? I know it is unfathomable that a guy would put a bunch of money at risk, but for the top guys it isn't that big a risk. It just seems strange that neither side has blinked. There are over 100 free agents sitting there right now. I can't believe that none of them have caved yet. It almost seems coordinated.
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Caved or greed? Rumor is that Jake wants a deal like Greinke's. I contend that most GM's have watched that debacle in Arizona and aren't going to risk that kind of contract...maybe ever again. I mean, how well has that worked out for them, other than getting Stewart and LaRussa fired? Players deserve to get the money, but sometimes they're unreasonable...or their agents are.
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How often have those deals worked for the team? Mike Hampton. Kevin Brown. Barry Zito. David Price.
Doesn't feel like collusion to me.
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You have to wonder if, for all the talk of collusion on the owner's parts, there isn't some collusion happening on the player's parts. Are they getting orders from the union to hold off on accepting contracts as a protest? Are Yu and Jake and Hosmer all sitting on a contract offers that are good enough for them but they've been instructed to hold off by the union? I know it is unfathomable that a guy would put a bunch of money at risk, but for the top guys it isn't that big a risk. It just seems strange that neither side has blinked. There are over 100 free agents sitting there right now. I can't believe that none of them have caved yet. It almost seems coordinated.
Yeah some of these guys seem like they're asking for much longer deals than they should just because.
If Hosmer really had a 7 year deal on the table for the money that's been rumored, he should have already signed by now instead of holding out for Year 8.
I just saw a blurb that Neil Walker is holding out for a 4 year deal from someone. That guy's barely been able to stay on the field the last two seasons, and he's on the wrong side of 30. He wouldn't be getting a 4 year deal even in a normal market.
I agree, it seems like there are some unnatural forces going on with the player's side of this too. It's almost like there's a mini strike going on with the players who are still free agents.
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Full ZiPS projections for the Cubs:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/
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I can't find any other team with a better projection than the Cubs. Hope they are right.
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Steamer has the Cubs with the fourth best projection (behind the Astros, Dodgers, and Indians):
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
After the Nationals ZiPS are released on Wednesday, the ZiPS and Steamer projections will be rolled together on that same page. That will give a more complete idea of where the teams stand.
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I think the standings on October 1 will be pretty revealing too.
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Interesting and encouraging article on Quintana:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/05/jose-quintanas-strikeout-rate-exploded-with-the-cubs-is-it-here-to-stay/
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I'm very high on Quintana this year in front of the Cubs defense for a full season. I think he finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting.
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Then he’ll be pitching for us for $500K next season.
I don't think that would be the case. I suspect Theo would pay him what he felt would be a reasonable amount, probably $12-15M.
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I'm very high on Quintana this year in front of the Cubs defense for a full season. I think he finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting.
Right behind Hendricks.
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Steamer has the Cubs with the fourth best projection (behind the Astros, Dodgers, and Indians):
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
After the Nationals ZiPS are released on Wednesday, the ZiPS and Steamer projections will be rolled together on that same page. That will give a more complete idea of where the teams stand.
Or where ZiPS and Steamer believes they stand.
I have never understood the almost religious deference seen from some to what someone else thinks of the team the person supports.
It is as if they are waiting for the pronouncements of the Pope on what is good or bad.
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These rating services are believed to have, in theory, at least, a scientific bases, as opposed to the gut feeling of an amateur. Although they perhaps do not have access to any information that is not available to the average fan, they do have access to their computer programs and algorithms that allow them to process and analyze more information than the average fan.
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Just for the record last year Fangraphs projected Indians, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers to be the top 3 teams in each league. The top 3 teams in each league by record last year were the same. A one game difference in projections isn't meaningful, but it can break the teams down by tiers. Some teams will underperform, some overperform and injuries happen as well.
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In case anyone was interested in subscribing to The Athletic, I just saw where they have a 50% off promo going on where you can get a one year subscription for $30.
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I got it for 60% off and $24 around Christmas, it is definitely worth it.
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If you don't want to pay, you can read 5 free articles a month on the Athletic app.
I signed up around Christmas too, and I agree it's worth the few dollars a month.
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So, you gots too be able too reed? Is their a awdeo virshun?
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So, you gots too be able too reed? Is their a awdeo virshun?
Yes. But that won't be of any help to you. You have to be able to sign in and spell your own password.
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I think its fair to assume our roster isnt complete but here's the Athlon Sports Cubs preview...
https://athlonsports.com/mlb/chicago-cubs-2018-scouting-projected-lineup-expert-insight
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 2m2 minutes ago
Grimm asked for $2.475 million, #Cubs countered at $2.2 million. Expect result tomorrow
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I say give him 2.3375 and call it a day.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 2m2 minutes ago
Grimm asked for $2.475 million, #Cubs countered at $2.2 million. Expect result tomorrow
I wonder if this is one of those "We need to prove a point" arbitration hearings like Jim Hendry had for Ryan Theriot.
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I say give him 2.3375 and call it a day.
Arbitrator can't do that.
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Well I'm sure hoping he gets close to zero. Seems like a fun, likable guy who I'd love to see have success. But the guy is wild, and he's a HR-factory. I'd certainly much prefer somebody else to win that job away from him.
Would sure like to come out of camp with 5 RH-relievers more trustworthy than Grimm.
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Nightengale has an article about the top free agents today:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/
The article says Darvish is looking to match the deal Cueto signed a couple years ago (6 years, $130 million), but Nightengale has him ultimately going to the Cubs for 5 years, $125 million.
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Nightengale has an article about the top free agents today:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/07/mlb-free-agency-unsigned-players-yu-darvish-jd-martinez-jake-arrieta-eric-hosmer/315148002/
The article says Darvish is looking to match the deal Cueto signed a couple years ago (6 years, $130 million), but Nightengale has him ultimately going to the Cubs for 5 years, $125 million.
If the Cubs are offering 5 years for $125M, and Darvish wants 6 years for $130..... there shouldn't really be a problem. Give the guy a 6th year for $5M.
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I've kind of had $125/5 in my head for a while, an option/vesting setup for year 6.
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I would be happy to give him a 6th year for $5 mil. I’m guessing that isn’t the hold up.
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I've kind of had $125/5 in my head for a while, an option/vesting setup for year 6.
That's my number, too. Let's get it done.
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It should be noted the 6/$130 comes from Nightengale and I might take ABTY's word over his.
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Yes, if it's Nightengale it's almost assuredly bollocks. But 5/125 just seems to make a lot of sense. Hell, if he wants 6/130 I'd do that in a NY minute.
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Don't say NY.
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A Rockford minute.
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"I ain't afraid of you, Rockford."
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6/130 would be *better* for the Cubs than 5/125. Lowers the AAV which is key for lux tax purposes.
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It would be so much better for the Cubs, and of so little value to Darvish, that I can't believe the information is accurate. At his age, assuming no major injury, Darvish is extremely likely to get much more than 5 million per year when he comes up for free agency in 5 years. Thirty six is not old for healthy starting pitchers.
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Just to be clear...5/$125 was Nightengale’s prediction/guess, not a current Cubs offer. Obviously, if they were at 5/$125 and Darvish countered with 6/$130, the deal would be done quickly.
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Regardless I bet a lot gets done fairly quickly seeing that we're 7 days away from Spring Training.
You could also assume that the players think with injuries and such in ST that they may as well hold out a little longer.
Ill stand by my stance that we still end up with 1 of Darvish,Arrieta,or Cobb and probably another signing or 2.
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https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-jake-arrieta-theo-epstein-tom-ricketts/
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One more thing about Nightengale’s article...he says that the Cubs have barely talked to Arrieta this offseason, and he says a reunion is “as unlikely as a Bill Belichick comedy show.” Sounds like the front office is scared of that velocity drop.
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As well they should be.
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https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-jake-arrieta-theo-epstein-tom-ricketts/
Rick Morrisey is a doofus.
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One more thing about Nightengale’s article...he says that the Cubs have barely talked to Arrieta this offseason, and he says a reunion is “as unlikely as a Bill Belichick comedy show.” Sounds like the front office is scared of that velocity drop.
Nightengale spins analogous story, that teams are leery on Lynn because the Cardinals don't seem to be trying to invest in him.
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How does Morrissey know that the Cubs haven't made a good 5-year offer to Darvish (or Jake)?
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As I have suggested a few times.....Jake isn’t likely going to be back. He is a distant 3rd behind Darvish and Cobb.
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As I have suggested a few times.....Jake isn’t likely going to be back. He is a distant 3rd behind Darvish and Cobb.
At least we have his shoes!
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Just to be clear...5/$125 was Nightengale’s prediction/guess, not a current Cubs offer. Obviously, if they were at 5/$125 and Darvish countered with 6/$130, the deal would be done quickly.
Pretty much my point.
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How does Morrissey know that the Cubs haven't made a good 5-year offer to Darvish (or Jake)?
Again, he is a doofus.
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As I have suggested a few times.....Jake isn’t likely going to be back. He is a distant 3rd behind Darvish and Cobb.
Assuming that's true, I've always wondered to what extent that is an evaluation/projection of Jake the pitcher, versus the projected price-point and projected value of Jake's contract?
In the contract terms were the same, would they really place Jake the pitcher behind both Cobb and Darvish? Or is it more that they've just figured Cobb would be enough cheaper that the value-per-dollar ratio would be better, even if they'd otherwise prefer Arrieta?
I guess I'm just wondering whether there is any chance that his price point would ever come back down to what the Cubs think might make sense? Maybe Cubs said $108/4 or $125/5, give us a call if you ever want to talk; and Boras said $200/7, give us a call if you want to talk. So nobody's talked. But maybe if nobody else is talking either, Boras will eventually make a call after all?
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tico, how do options years with vesting and buyouts and stuff work?
Suppose $100/5 guaranteed. Year 6 is $32 with $5 buyout option.
Does that count just as the $100/5 = $20 average?
Or with the guaranteed option does that qualify as at worst $100+5/5 = $21?
I assume since year 6 is non-guaranteed, that it couldn't calculate as $100+32/6 = $22.
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I’m pretty sure it is guaranteed money/years. So the buyout would be included. I’m not sure how the option year works. Would it be $32-5?
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Yeah, that would make sense.
So I'd guess with player options, like Heyward, the signing bonus plus pre-option salaries would be averaged; then after he stays the post-option years would be averaged without the signing bonus factored.
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Yes, I believe that is correct. Basically, sum all the money and that’s guaranteed in any form, and divide by all the years guaranteed in any form.
The only exception to this is opt-out clauses. I believe that, for the purposes of AAV, it is assumed the player will not exercise the opt-out.
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I'm warming to the idea of a Heyward-Almora platoon at leadoff.
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Don't like the idea of giving Heyward any more AB's than necessary. First inning should be one of the best chances to score, because you don't need to give away any auto-outs. Voluntarily wasting the first inning by starting right out with Heyward as an auto-out doesn't seem wise to me.
From the back end, most games the last time through the lineup won't get to the #8 spot, whereas #1 always gets used last time through. So >100 games where leadoff will get an AB that #8 doesn't. Doesn't seem wise to unnecessarily give your worst auto-out an extra 100 PA over the course of the season.
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Heyward as leadoff hitter should only happen if he proves he's back to pre-Cubs form for a couple of months to start the season. If he's the Braves/Cardinals version of Heyward, he's a perfect leadoff hitter.
Assuming the Cubs will enter the season with the position players they currently have, I'd give Happ the first shot at leadoff. He works the count and walks regularly, and has a chance to be a good OBP guy if he can reduce his Ks a little.
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The Brewers are tired of Cubs fans turning MIller Park into Wrigley North
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brewers-tickets-20180208-story.html
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Ha! Well the Nashville Predators used to have to do that for Blackhawks games to keep the Blackhawks fans out. Five years ago, it was United Center South every time the Blackhawks were in town.
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heh, there are LOTS of Cub fans in Wisconsin.
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=496.msg335795#msg335795 date=1518101868
The only exception to this is opt-out clauses. I believe that, for the purposes of AAV, it is assumed the player will not exercise the opt-out.
[/quote]
If Heyward were to opt-out the Cubs next year would be hit with a penalty because his first 3 years are move expensive than his AAV.
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Ill take the penalty.
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Ryan Braun probably complained about being booed in his home park.
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Ill take the penalty.
:):):) That would be pretty crazy.
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Justin Grimm lost arb case
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Justin Grimm lost arb case
shocker
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The Brewers are tired of Cubs fans turning MIller Park into Wrigley North
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brewers-tickets-20180208-story.html
Cubs Twitter account responds:
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/961736352084701184
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I think how Trump referred to some countries also applies to Milwaukee.
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I think how Trump referred to some countries also applies to Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is an excellent city.
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I think how Trump referred to some countries also applies to Milwaukee.
You are a stinking state-ist.
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You are a stinking state-ist.
heh, at least you knew I was joking
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You were joking?
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http://www.thecubreporter.com/02082018/cubs-receive-grimm-news-arbitration-panel#more
Interesting notes on Justin Grimm. Phil says when teams and players reach an agreement and bypass arb, that routinely teams "guarantee" the contract as part of the agreement. But that for a contract determined by the arbitrator, the contract is NOT guaranteed. So if the Cubs pick up somebody better, or end up preferring to keep Butler or Maples or something, they could freely drop Grimm without needing to pay his $2.2.
He's out of options, of course, so *IF* they were to cut him off the 25, any other team could claim him for their 25.
*IF* he cleared waivers and the Cubs tried to outright him to Iowa, he could declare free agency, or accept and go to Iowa. I'd imagine that going FA would make a lot of sense: get a fresh start elsewhere, and get out of a place where management clearly doesn't think super highly of you. But on the flip side, scrambling for a new AAA spot at the end of spring training might be a hassle; Grimm already has lots of friends in the Cub system; he already knows his way around Des Moines; and he ought to understand that the Cubs are really thin in relief, so that *IF* he pitched well at Iowa, he'd have a great chance to be the next man back up.
I'm interested in this because I've felt like Grimm is kinda weak as the last RH reliever, so I'd hoped the Cubs would pick up somebody better. Perhaps they still have the capacity to do so, at no financial blow. Second, I've hoped Maples might look great in camp and deserve that spot ahead of Grimm, but wondered whether with Maples having options and Grimm not so, it would kind of pre-determine that Grimm stays and Maples goes down. But *if* they reached a point where Grimm did clear waivers and was willing to go down, maybe the deck isn't that stacked against Maples? Maybe the same for Butler, maybe if cutting Grimm costs nothing, and doing so could be arranged where he didn't even leave the organization, maybe that gives Butler a better shot than I realized?
It sounds dumb, but *IF* Butler is 100% physically, I still have a vague interest in him. Heh heh, the board wasn't a fan, he had no K's, and he'd pitch games with ~zero swing-and-miss, and he was wild. Yet for all that, he luckily had the best ERA of the rotation when he got taken out. Given the lack of rotation depth, and Montgomerie's possible value staying in relief, it might not be the worst idea to have Butler available in case of emergency. Second, I've wondered whether Butler might not be one of those types of guys who might benefit from a conversion to relief. If he could pump it up an extra 2-3 mph in relief, and continues as an anti-HR guy, I wonder if he might not be a much more consistently anti-awful 6th inning guy than Grimm? And perhaps be OK as a 2-3-inning guy once in a while?
I also kinda like having Grimm as a performance-based possibility. He's always been wild and inconsistent, and last year he was awful, particularly with 12HR in 55 innings! But he'd been variable OK/decent/good in previous years, and would sometimes put together little stretches where he was useful. So given the volatility of relievers, perhaps he's ready to bounce back, and the HR's will settle back to previous norms, and Grimm and Hickey will make some little tweak and suddenly he'll be a mostly-pretty-good 13th man again. If $2.2 isn't committed, and you're not actually very committed to keeping on the roster if he's not doing OK, why not bring him to camp and see if he might be anti-awful this year?
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On MLB Network, Mark Feinsand said that everyone thinks Darvish is going to the Cubs:
https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/961971643278032896
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Darvish to Cubs 6/$150 per Rosenthal
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Rosenthal: Darvish to Cubs, 6 years, $150 million.
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Heyward and Davis have been working out at the Cubs complex in Mesa since before Thanksgiving.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-jason-heyward-working-on-swing-for-2018/c-266199328
I wonder if a former switch-hitter has an edge over instructors who batted from only one side.
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Only $126 million is guaranteed
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Rosenthal clarifies: $126 million guaranteed with incentives to $150 million.
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Uwah
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Fantastic AAV, if these early reports are true. So it's 6 years - so what? If the AAV is decent that extra year of control isn't a bad thing.
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Have I mentioned how great it is to have Theo Epstein on our side?
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$21 million AAV isn’t bad at all.
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Wow....That is an amazing deal.
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If nothing else, we now have arguably the most entertaining pitcher in baseball. Maybe the gyroball will make a return.
In one stroke we go from a solid average rotation to arguably the deepest in the NL. Lester as your #3 starter isn't a bad way to go.
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(http://ronniespirit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/boom-2gjd45e-920x613.jpg)
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Lester might be #4, just saying.
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Rosenthal just tweeted that the incentives will be tough. He’ll have to win multiple Cy Youngs to get to $-50 million. Cubs will gladly pay an extra $24 million for that.
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(http://ronniespirit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/boom-2gjd45e-920x613.jpg)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/22/Charlie_Brown.png)
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Heyman reporting Dodgers offered Darvish a similar deal to the Cubs.
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In one stroke we go from a solid average rotation to arguably the deepest in the NL. Lester as your #3 starter isn't a bad way to go.
I was looking at our depth chart the other day, and I'd just about forgotten we signed Drew Smyly too. He's now the #7 starter once his rehab is finished. Yeah I'd say that's pretty deep.
It's nice to know going into the season that our rotation is very well set up to weather any injuries that might pop up.
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Way to bring it home, deeg! :)
Every day I check this thread a couple of times, just in case.... and this time there is actually news! Fun. :)
Heh heh, I much remember how exciting it was to sign Jason Heyward, and then how regrettable that has proved.
Hope in this case the guy can pitch well for some of those years. :)
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Way to bring it home, deeg! :)
Sorry it took so long. The time zone difference made communication really difficult.
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By my calculations, the Cubs will begin the season roughly $10 million below the luxury tax threshold.
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Opt outs included.
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/962419409238151168
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...In one stroke we go from a solid average rotation to arguably the deepest in the NL. Lester as your #3 starter isn't a bad way to go.
Yes, deep is right. That's awesome. Lester and Chatwood at the back end, that could be a really strong set of 3-4-5 guys. Could win a lot of regular-season games with the back-end starters.
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Opt outs included...
Will be interesting to see what those look like. I'd always assumed year 6 would involve a Cubs option; but "opt outs" to me suggests something on the player's side, too....
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Yes, deep is right. That's awesome. Lester and Chatwood at the back end, that could be a really strong set of 3-4-5 guys. Could win a lot of regular-season games with the back-end starters.
Chatwood has a chance to surprise some people. He may end up at a Game 2 or 3 starter in the postseason.
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Or a multi-inning reliever in the playoffs. So many options.
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Christopher Kamka
@ckamka
Follow Follow @ckamka
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Most starts with 10+ strikeouts (2012-17)
Max Scherzer 58 (195 GS)
Chris Sale 53 (180 GS)
Clayton Kershaw 43 (174 GS)
Corey Kluber 39 (163 GS)
Yu Darvish 34 (131 GS)
Stephen Strasburg 33 (167 GS)
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ChicagoCubsOnline Retweeted
Stats By STATS
@StatsBySTATS
4m4 minutes ago
More Stats By STATS Retweeted Ken Rosenthal
Yu Darvish's 11.04 strikeouts per nine innings is the highest mark in MLB history among pitchers with 100+ career starts. #Cubs
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A take a nap and wake up to this.
Looks like a good deal.
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Fantastic. They'll probably be a feeding frenzy for the other FAs.
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So Deeg gets to stay? What a crappy day.
Great news for the Cubs though.
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Barring injuries, this pretty much sets the opening day roster except for the eighth reliever.
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ZiPS projections with the Cubs for Darvish...it has him projected to be worth about $150 million, and it's conservative on the number of innings pitched.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVs6J8NW4AABgho.jpg)
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Barring injuries, this pretty much sets the opening day roster except for the eighth reliever.
8th reliever and maybe 2nd catcher? That's got to be the most pre-determined roster I can maybe ever remember entering camp.
By my calculations, the Cubs will begin the season roughly $10 million below the luxury tax threshold.
Thanks for cap update, Jeff. That would seem to leave plenty of space to add even a big-ticket salary in July. So lux shouldn't produce any constraints on summer transactions.
Don't think they will, but with $10M under lux, I wonder if they have any consideration to try to still sign one more reliever? I don't expect that. They may figure that Grimm's stuff is so good that he could be better than anybody left out there anyway, **if** he could return to pre-2017 level?
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Gimenez has to have the second catcher job locked up.
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Gimenez has to have the second catcher job locked up.
I think he'd have to look pretty bad during the spring not to get the job.
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Would be curious to here the story on the deal. Long game of chicken, and eventually Yu's agent had to take the same deal he could have had back in December? Or did Cubs end up giving the 6th year after all?
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One of my collusion imaginations had been not to go 6 years on pitchers. Maybe that happened, the 6th year has a Cubs option, and collusion is still real. Or maybe there was no collusion, and the realities of real teams with real situations and lux lines and stuff just prevented the market from inflating and overpaying the way that agents have come to assume and rely upon.
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Barring injuries, this pretty much sets the opening day roster except for the eighth reliever.
Or, hopefully, 13th position player.
Gimenez seems likely to stick, but I'd love to see Caratini on the roster. Solid lefty bat, legit C, can play elsewhere.
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One of my collusion imaginations had been not to go 6 years on pitchers. Maybe that happened, the 6th year has a Cubs option, and collusion is still real. Or maybe there was no collusion, and the realities of real teams with real situations and lux lines and stuff just prevented the market from inflating and overpaying the way that agents have come to assume and rely upon.
I don't think the Darvish deal offers any real evidence on collusion one way or the other - it's more about a player caving. Yeah Darvish got 6 years, but unless some reportedly very stiff incentives are reached it's really the total dollars of what a 5-year deal should have been for him.
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We'll see, maybe he'll be terrible, and the season will go nowhere. But I'm an optimist and am pretty fired up. Cubs seem very well positioned to be a strong regular-season team.
Hope performance matches that, and it's a really fun regular season.
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The contract is likely front loaded and the opt outs could start next year, so it may never reach 6 years.
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
A source says that Yu Darvish's opt out with the #Cubs is "earlier'' than three years into his contract. (That would lead me to believe it's 2 years, but I don't take anything for granted at this point).
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I don't think the Darvish deal offers any real evidence on collusion one way or the other - it's more about a player caving. Yeah Darvish got 6 years, but unless some reportedly very stiff incentives are reached it's really the total dollars of what a 5-year deal should have been for him.
deeg, I can't really conceptualize how that sort of collusion would operate. In the 80's, it seemed to be to not bid for players from other teams. That seems to make sense. Or a collusion to not exceed a certain duration of contract, that's something finite that guys could agree to. But how do you collude this, "Hey, guys, nobody offer to pay more than 5/6 of what a guy "should" have gotten?"? Unless maybe they've got some secret theoretical-value computer calculation that they all collude to use, and nobody is allowed to offer more than 5/6 of what it calculates? Seems a little remote to me.
Seems to me that perhaps he very much got what he "should" have gotten, for a guy turning 32 this summer, coming off major surgery, with a fastball that's kinda straight and not exceptionally fast, and as a guy who gives up lots of HR's?
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Craig, collusion can be any covert agreement by the owners on what they will and won't do. What happened the last time isn't the only face you can put on it. As for the sort of contract Darvish "should" have gotten, that's obviously subjective, but for a guy with his overall numbers a $21m AAV is pretty low by most standards, I should think.
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Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
A source says that Yu Darvish's opt out with the #Cubs is "earlier'' than three years into his contract. (That would lead me to believe it's 2 years, but I don't take anything for granted at this point).
Might not be a bad thing if he opts out in 2.
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Chatwood has a chance to surprise some people. He may end up at a Game 2 or 3 starter in the postseason.
Lets get to the post season first!!
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Would be curious to here the story on the deal. Long game of chicken, and eventually Yu's agent had to take the same deal he could have had back in December? Or did Cubs end up giving the 6th year after all?
Cubs compromised. Cubs wanted a lower AAV. Darvish wanted a 6th year. I think Darvish caved far more than the Cubs given that the industry expected a 5/125 deal.
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Willson Contreras
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@WContreras40
15m15 minutes ago
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Holly cow another aggressive move by @Cubs
Can’t wait to catch @faridyu Welcome to Chicago Cubs 🙌
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Craig, collusion can be any covert agreement by the owners on what they will and won't do. ....As for the sort of contract Darvish "should" have gotten, that's obviously subjective, but for a guy with his overall numbers a $21m AAV is pretty low by most standards, I should think.
My problem, deeg, is that if there is collusion, there needs to be something tangible that they are agreeing to. To share offers; to limit duration; to not offer for a guy the home team wants to keep; I can imagine those and more. *IF* there was some kind of objective calculation of value, not to exceed the calculated value by >120%, or something. Maybe to not exceed luxury tax. Beats me. But I have no idea what they might have possibly colluded to do, if it wasn't some constraint on duration.
As the most avid collusion-ist on the board, give me some hypothetical collusion that might make sense!
Just some vague "Hey, lets agree not to overspend on FA's, OK?", that's meaningless.
Another collusion question: We know the Cardinals have money, enough to have fit Stanton in. How under the collusion framework could it have been that the Cardinals couldn't have offered as much, and a little bit more, than the Cubs did? If their scouting and valuation of the guy perceives this, like you do, as a sub-market bargain deal, how would the collusion hypothesis have prevented the Cardinals from offering at least as much, if not more? Under the collusion hypothesis, did the Cubs offer the max that collusion allowed, somehow, and the Cardinals and Rangers and Dodgers and Mets and Brewers were all allowed to match that but not exceed? Seems to me that if it's really a sub-market bargain deal, than anybody in the game who perceived things that way could likewise then have offered at least as much, if not more. I guess I'm just puzzled and not sure how the collusion hypothesis has any explanatory power here.
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Man, I am pretty fired up. Going with Chatwood, Quintana, and Darvish where we opened last spring with Anderson, Lackey, and Arrieta, that's a pretty huge upgrade. Perception on Jake entering last season would have been as high or higher then than perception on Yu now, I think. But Anderson vs Chatwood, and Lackey versus Quintana, not even close.
Pretty interesting, last June how we looked at our pitching at that time (when Butler had the best ERA in the rotation), and projected it forward. If you'd said then that we'd pick up Q and Yu, I'm not sure I'd have thought that was very realistic. Fun!
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Br, what are we going to do with all of Arrieta's shoes?
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Is it too late to say "Woo Hoo?"
A very impressive winter for the Cubs' front office.
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It looks to me like we got Darvish for less than was expected but we did have to go 6 years like was also expected.
Im happy with it for the fact that we needed another starting pitcher and signed the best one available.
Im also happy to see we havent had to trade away any of our core.
Now if only Theo could get us another reliever and leadoff man for cheap.
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Passan says that the opt out is after year 2.
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Not thrilled about that, but it is what it is.
Going to be interesting to see how Hickey and the Cubs deal with Yu's pitch selection. He has seven (at least) pitches that are plus or better when he's on. It's probably reasonable to say that's too many to be ideal; the Dodgers reportedly tried to limit him to 3 and he felt he suffered for it.
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Yu Darvish had #21 with Texas.
Others to have that number since Sammy Sosa
Jason Marquis (2007-08)
Milton Bradley (2009)
Tyler Colvin (2010-11)
Luis Valbuena (2012)
Joe Mather (2012),
Scott Hairston(2013),
Junior Lake (2013-15)
Tommy Hunter(2015)
Mark Zagunis(2017)
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Chatwood took 21 from Zagunis after giving 32 back to Duensing. Zagunis is wearing #20.
3 numbers before taking the field should be some sort of record.
Zips projects the Cubs rotation zWAR and ERA-
Quintana 5, 73
Darvish 4, 78
Lester 4, 81
Hendricks 3, 86
Chatwood 2, 100 (only 142 IP)
18 fWAR would have been tied for #3 fWAR in starting pitchers behind the D-Backs and Indians. It also would have been the #10 pitching staff WAR ahead of the Cardinals.
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Yu Darvish had #21 with Texas.
Correction: Darvish actually had #21 with the Dodgers and #11 with Texas.
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Now if only Theo could get us another reliever and leadoff man for cheap.
I don't see either of those things happening, even though I'd really love for the Cubs to find an upgrade in CF. I think the Cubs will be looking to bring in Blackmon or Pollock at the deadline if their teams aren't contenders this year.
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Passan says that the opt out is after year 2.
Sale, Bumgarner, Cole, and Gray lead that free agent class right now. It also includes some interesting secondary guys like Hamels, Porcello, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Alex Wood. So that free agent class is pretty loaded with pitchers--seems pretty unlikely that 33 year old Darvish will be as desirable than a 30 year old Sale or Bumgarner, or a 29 year old Cole. I don't think it's especially likely Darvish will opt out at that point, especially if Keuchel struggles to get his money next offseason.
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Is there a better top 4 in baseball than Lester,Darvish,Quintana,and Hendricks?
Throw in Chatwood at 5 and is there a better overall rotation?
With or without a leadoff man [Happ or Almora] Im pretty confident we will score.
I'd still like another reliever.
The pen is the question mark.
Right now it would be Montgomery, Duensing,Strop,Edwards,Wilson,Cishek,Morrow with Grimm and Maples as depth.
I guess I would have preferred a better arm than Duensing.
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Bullpens are never a sure thing. The Cubs bullpen could be horrible. It could also be amazing.
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I think the Cubs did a pretty good job with the bullpen...signing a potentially dominant closer (Morrow) while protecting themselves with a lower ceiling safety net who has shown he can do the job (Cishek). It's just too bad the safety net wasn't Reed instead of Cishek.
But Cishek and Hickey seem to work well together, so maybe the Cubs did a good job saving that money.
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Is there a better top 4 in baseball than Lester,Darvish,Quintana,and Hendricks?
Top 2 of Quintana/Darvish is especially exciting. I think Scherzer/Strasburg, Kluber/Carrasco, and (maybe) Kershaw/whoever are the only three in the same league.
I don't think any 3-4 is close to Lester/Hendricks.
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I liked signing Cishek.
I just dont think Im the LOOGY type [Duensing].
Give me another power arm.
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Bullpens are never a sure thing. The Cubs bullpen could be horrible. It could also be amazing.
Agree. Who knows. It could be good, but nothing safe. A lot of the same personnel as last year; hopefully some of them will throw more strikes (Edwards, Wilson, Grimm, Montgomery.....).
Personnel changed, compared to last spring:
Morrow for Davis
Wilson for Rondon
Cishek for Koji
No obvious upgrade in strike-throwing there.
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Top 2 of Quintana/Darvish is especially exciting. I think Scherzer/Strasburg, Kluber/Carrasco, and (maybe) Kershaw/whoever are the only three in the same league.
I don't think any 3-4 is close to Lester/Hendricks.
With all due respect to Q and Yu, I don't think they are in the same league as Scherzer/Strasburg or any of those three sets. And Washington with Gio as #3 doesn't exactly disadvantage them there, either.
I wonder if they'll perhaps sign Jake? Haven't they been one of the rumored favorites?
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I'm not sure it's a problem of due respect but comparing 5 on 5 rotations. I would agree that Strasburg, Scherzer, Kershaw, Bumgardner, Sale, etc are better pitchers than our best, but I'll take our 5 over almost any other team's 5. The only one that might compare is Houston.
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There always seems to be something wrong with the Nats, though, whether it's a bad bullpen, bad manager, etc.
Maybe Dave Martinez will turn out to be an upgrade, but it seems like there's a reason why he kept getting passed up for managerial openings in the past.
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They were all friends of Ryno?
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With all due respect to Q and Yu, I don't think they are in the same league as Scherzer/Strasburg or any of those three sets. And Washington with Gio as #3 doesn't exactly disadvantage them there, either.
I wonder if they'll perhaps sign Jake? Haven't they been one of the rumored favorites?
Scherzer/Strasberg and Kluber/Carrasco are better, but the difference isn't a huge disadvantage to the Cubs.
The difference between Hendricks/Lester and Gio is much larger.
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With all due respect to Q and Yu, I don't think they are in the same league as Scherzer/Strasburg or any of those three sets.
I'm convinced that Quintana is going to have a huge, Cy Young contending year. With Darvish behind him, I'll take the Cubs duo against anyone.
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I think it'll be a major upset if Darvish isn't the Cubs' best starting pitcher, but we'll see how it works out.
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Great Day to be a Cub fan. Another bad day to be a Cardinal fan. Can't get enough of either.
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I dont care enough to argue about it but I remember back in the day when Arizona rode Schilling and Big Unit to a World Series title.
Fast forward to 2016 and after 108 years we rode Jon Lester to one.
I still think of this rotation as Jon Lester's and I will think the same until he drops off a good bit more than he has or leaves.
Ill say it goes Lester,Darvish,Quintana,Hendricks,Chatwood.
Thats no knock on any of the top 4 cause none of them are any less than a 2.
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Jake Arrieta won two WS games. I think there was some riding going on there, too.
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Very pleased to have Yu, but need to give MAJOR props to Jake, who was an absolute beast for us.
He was the very definition of a big-game pitcher for us the past three years and there's no WS title without him!
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I'm not sure it's a problem of due respect but comparing 5 on 5 rotations. I would agree that Strasburg, Scherzer, Kershaw, Bumgardner, Sale, etc are better pitchers than our best, but I'll take our 5 over almost any other team's 5. The only one that might compare is Houston.
[/quote]Scherzer/Strasberg and Kluber/Carrasco are better, but the difference isn't a huge disadvantage to the Cubs.
The difference between Hendricks/Lester and Gio is much larger.
Last year, using ERA+:
Gio/Lester: 150/100 <50
Strassburg/Q: 176/117 <59
Scherzer/Yu: 177/118 <59
So, *IF* you are envisioning Q/Yu/Lester as our #1-3 guys, looks like Washington had an advantage ERA+ differential of ≥50 for each of their 1-2-3 guys. We've got a lot of catching up to do to match their 1-3! Obviously reversion to the mean and everything, so those gaps will naturally tighten. But it's not really like our front guys are really equivalent, at least they weren't last year.
[Obviously jes is going to hop in and note that Hendricks has been better than Q+Yu, and Lester is way less. Even so, using last year's numbers, Hendricks is still less than Gio.
Lester is a couple years older and continuing to age. The velocity slip for Hendricks and Arrieta was much discussed, but Lester declined more than either of them, right? And at his age, there's a chance that decline was not a blip, and that he will continue to decline further.
The huge advantage we've got is at 4+5, for regular season. *IF* they do add Arrieta, they could close the gap on the back end, too.
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So, *IF* you are envisioning Q/Yu/Lester as our #1-3 guys, looks like Washington had an advantage ERA+ differential of ≥50 for each of their 1-2-3 guys. We've got a lot of catching up to do to match their 1-3! Obviously reversion to the mean and everything, so those gaps will naturally tighten. But it's not really like our front guys are really equivalent, at least they weren't last year.
I'd start by saying that ERA+ isn't what I'm looking at all.
Gio last year
8.42 K/9 (22.7%), 3.54 BB/9 (9.6%), .258 BABIP (.293 Career), 11.1% HR/FB (9.3% Career), 45.8% GB% and 81.6% LOB%.
Lester last year
8.97 K/9 (23.6%), 2.99 BB/9 (7.9%), .310 BABIP (.298 Career), 15.8% HR/FB (74.8% Career), 46.2 GB% and 68.7% LOB%
I'd argue that Gio's ERA he benefitted from things out of his control and Lester's was impacted by a some bad luck and a couple of really, really, really bad starts.
But if the argument goes to the playoffs lets look at what Lester/Gio did in the Nats/Cubs series.
Lester 9.2 IP, 1.86 ERA, 3 BB, 5 SO
Gio 8 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6 BB, 11 SO
Lester's velocity in Oct 2016 and Oct 2017 was the same.
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Chris Gimenez on Darvish joining the Cubs.
https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-gimenez-reacts-to-cubs-adding-yu-darvish/c-266262852
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Sharma on Darvish.
https://theathletic.com/237211/2018/02/10/if-his-cutter-and-slider-are-working-yu-darvish-could-have-a-special-season
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“Insider” Marlin (who said consistently Darvish was basically a done deal, fwiw) claiming Cubs backed off Arrieta because they believe he was using PEDs. Maybe not the time for that conversation, but I think anybody who says it’s never crossed their mind is probably fibbing.
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He was a physical specimen and he did have drastic improvement in a short period of time.
My Bleacher Report Team Stream sent me an alert this morning saying we're still after Jake Odorizzi.
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I strongly doubt that.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2758896-yankees-cubs-rumored-to-be-among-teams-interested-in-trading-for-jake-odorizzi.amp.html
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I don’t think Play was doubting that the report existed.
Jake did seem bigger from 2014 to 2015.
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Yeah I think that's an old rumor by now on Odorizzi.
The Cubs are probably done buying all the pitchers they wish to buy for the time being. They'll probably hold off buying more pitchers with the budget room they've created from their ability to develop better hitters than Randal Grichuk until later on the year or may hold off further buying until next offseason.
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“Insider” Marlin (who said consistently Darvish was basically a done deal, fwiw) claiming Cubs backed off Arrieta because they believe he was using PEDs. Maybe not the time for that conversation, but I think anybody who says it’s never crossed their mind is probably fibbing.
Never once crossed my mind..... but Theo's prior track record would indicate he personally is not particularly concerned about players using PEDs... though he me might now be concerned with the prospect of players being caught using PEDs
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With Darvish signed, all the Cubs need to do now is sign Cobb to make it a decent off season....
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Here is the Cafardo column that originally mentioned Odorizzi. I'm pretty sure it was written before the Darvish news broke yesterday and they just didn't go through carefully enough afterwards and update that Cubs/Odorizzi reference to make it clear that it was an old rumor.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/10/union-camp-noble-but-players-are-win-situation/5H87qVV8zybGwMv7c8VJfM/story.html
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Arrieta had arguably the best half-season by any pitcher in baseball history in 2015. He dropped off significantly in the second half of 2016, and experienced a huge velocity drop in 2017 without any reported arm issues. It's all circumstantial but it does make you think, especially when you look at the guy.
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Sometime in 2015 or early 2016, didn't some manager or opposing pitcher make some snide remark about Arrieta that made the news. I remember there were shots back and forth for awhile and then nothing.
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Found it. Early in 2016 https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/04/26/mlb-jake-arrieta-contract-steroids-cubs/83551730/
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Well MLB certainly seem to step up the testing for him at least early this past year.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/what-makes-peds-unbearable-to-consider-for-cubs-jake-arrieta/
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If you go to Bing and type "rumors about Arrieta and PED's", whole pages show up.
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I'm still baffled by those who took the coinflip approack with Jake and Yu, TBH, or even worse advocated for Arrieta if the money was the same. Even setting aside the PED concerns his performance and velocity declined markedly over the last 1.5 seasons. Neither is true with Darvish.
The truth with Yu is that, as good as he is, in terms of pure stuff he's as dominant as any pitcher in his generation - and there are no signs yet his stuff is falling off. If Hickey is as good as he's supposed to be (and he's a huge Darvish fan) how can you not be excited at the idea we might get even more out of Darvish in terms of results?
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If you go to Bing and type "rumors about Arrieta and PED's", whole pages show up.
If you go to Bing and type "rumors about Arrieta and PED's", whole pages show up.
Well, then it must be true!
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Ive never given any thoughts about Arrieta and steroids until today.
It aint like Len and Jim were calling him out for it.
As far as Darvish goes I cant hate on it.
I think it makes us the clear Central favorites now and maybe the whole NL.
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It's true that accusations were made, not that they were true.
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As far as Darvish goes I cant hate on it.
I think it makes us the clear Central favorites now and maybe the whole NL.
I thought that as a Japanese pitcher his arm was going to fall off?
How in the world are the Cubs going to win it all paying more than $20M this year for a pitcher whose arm falls off?
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Gimenez has to have the second catcher job locked up.
He's a Maddon kind of guy -- in addition to catching, he's also more than five major league games at each of the following: 1B (43), 3B (7), LF (24), RF (9) and even 9 games as a reliever.
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Might not be a bad thing if he opts out in 2.
Sort of depends on how he is doing and how front-loaded the contract is.
If he gets $30M for each of the first two years and is still doing quite well, an opt out likely would not be good for the Cubs.
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I don't think the Darvish deal offers any real evidence on collusion one way or the other - it's more about a player caving. Yeah Darvish got 6 years, but unless some reportedly very stiff incentives are reached it's really the total dollars of what a 5-year deal should have been for him.
Strange to think of a player getting an average of $21M a year for six years as "caving."
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Another collusion question: We know the Cardinals have money, enough to have fit Stanton in. How under the collusion framework could it have been that the Cardinals couldn't have offered as much, and a little bit more, than the Cubs did? If their scouting and valuation of the guy perceives this, like you do, as a sub-market bargain deal, how would the collusion hypothesis have prevented the Cardinals from offering at least as much, if not more? Under the collusion hypothesis, did the Cubs offer the max that collusion allowed, somehow, and the Cardinals and Rangers and Dodgers and Mets and Brewers were all allowed to match that but not exceed? Seems to me that if it's really a sub-market bargain deal, than anybody in the game who perceived things that way could likewise then have offered at least as much, if not more. I guess I'm just puzzled and not sure how the collusion hypothesis has any explanatory power here.
BINGO!!! We have someone who understands why economic collusion theories in general are a load of crap.
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I guess I would have preferred a better arm than Duensing.
Duensing would probably like to have a better arm than Duensing.
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Sale, Bumgarner, Cole, and Gray lead that free agent class right now. It also includes some interesting secondary guys like Hamels, Porcello, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Alex Wood. So that free agent class is pretty loaded with pitchers--seems pretty unlikely that 33 year old Darvish will be as desirable than a 30 year old Sale or Bumgarner, or a 29 year old Cole. I don't think it's especially likely Darvish will opt out at that point, especially if Keuchel struggles to get his money next offseason.
Considering that Darvish apparently had a slightly better (financially) offer from LA, and that he almost certainly could have made more in endorsement money there, I suspect that for him the opt-out is primarily a question of how he feels he fits with the team and city, whether he is comfortable and likes his teammates and the clubhouse. I would not be worried about the opt-out.
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Top 2 of Quintana/Darvish is especially exciting. I think Scherzer/Strasburg, Kluber/Carrasco, and (maybe) Kershaw/whoever are the only three in the same league.
I don't think any 3-4 is close to Lester/Hendricks.
Ranking Hendricks as the Cubs' fourth best starter is simultaneously funny and sad.
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I dont care enough to argue about it but I remember back in the day when Arizona rode Schilling and Big Unit to a World Series title.
Fast forward to 2016 and after 108 years we rode Jon Lester to one.
I still think of this rotation as Jon Lester's and I will think the same until he drops off a good bit more than he has or leaves.
Hendricks won the Cy Young.... but we "rode Jon Lester to" the World Series.
You guys REALLY underestimate Hendricks and overestimate the importance of pushing the radar gun.
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When did Hendricks win the Cy Young Jes?
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I'd start by saying that ERA+ isn't what I'm looking at all.
Gio last year
8.42 K/9 (22.7%), 3.54 BB/9 (9.6%), .258 BABIP (.293 Career), 11.1% HR/FB (9.3% Career), 45.8% GB% and 81.6% LOB%.
Lester last year
8.97 K/9 (23.6%), 2.99 BB/9 (7.9%), .310 BABIP (.298 Career), 15.8% HR/FB (74.8% Career), 46.2 GB% and 68.7% LOB%
I'd argue that Gio's ERA he benefitted from things out of his control and Lester's was impacted by a some bad luck and a couple of really, really, really bad starts.
But if the argument goes to the playoffs lets look at what Lester/Gio did in the Nats/Cubs series.
Lester 9.2 IP, 1.86 ERA, 3 BB, 5 SO
Gio 8 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6 BB, 11 SO
Lester's velocity in Oct 2016 and Oct 2017 was the same.
Without looking it up to check, I am guessing there is a misplaced decimal point in there....
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Make no mistake: Both the Dodgers and Nationals will be juggernauts in their respective divisions and in the National League, but the power has shifted significantly out of their favor. Both teams have solid rotations, but the Cubs will go into the 2018 season with a top four who, according to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection model, have statistical near-age comparisons to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Andy Pettitte and Tim Hudson.
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agents-yu-darvish-cubs-signing-2018-nl-central-predictions-fantasy-stats/1m1kylprr6gnn1qwm9li6afovb
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When did Hendricks win the Cy Young Jes?
In my bad memory he won it in 2016.
Of course, the rest of you do not live in or with my bad memory and as a result might not remember things the same way.
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Yeah... Lester even finished ahead of him in the balloting. Shouldn't have, but did. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2016.shtml#all_NL_CYA_voting
I know that some of you have commented over the years about what sometimes seems to be my tendency to check stats and details and to post responsive comments to correct things, with some complaining that doing so is an effort by me to "be right" or to simply show that others are wrong.
That really is not the case. I check such things and often post corrections far more BECAUSE my memory sucks than anything else. In fact most of the time when I check records I really didn't remember one way or the other.
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Both teams have solid rotations, but the Cubs will go into the 2018 season with a top four who, according to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection model, have statistical near-age comparisons to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Andy Pettitte and Tim Hudson.
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agents-yu-darvish-cubs-signing-2018-nl-central-predictions-fantasy-stats/1m1kylprr6gnn1qwm9li6afovb
Okay.... I know my memory sucks, but I KNOW those four were never on one team at the same time, and absent having all been on the same team at the same time, I don't really get including them in a discussion of solid rotations.
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In my bad memory he won it in 2016.
Of course, the rest of you do not live in or with my bad memory and as a result might not remember things the same way.
As hard of a time as you have given me for years if I were a man with less moral fiber I would give you a hard time.
Seeing that Im not all I will say is now I understand why you like Hendricks so much.
You think he's a former Cy Young winner.
I guess I'd like him better too if that were the case.
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The nice thing with the Cubs rotation is that we don't need to rank them. There's the chance that four, or perhaps even all five, will be interchangeably good. That's super cool during the regular season, to be able to consistently put out a good starter every day, to reasonably expect a good start every day. Even good pitchers have off days, of course, and the offense will often get shut down, so they're going to lose plenty. But there are going to be stretches where the good starters do sequence good starts, and you've got the capacity to collect a handful of winning streaks.
I think it also perhaps allows you to select in the playoffs. Somebody may be slumping, or have a sore ankle, or a tired arm; you've got other options to turn to. And as has been mentioned, it would be really cool if all five guys were in good position heading into the playoffs, so that you really could have 3-4 good starters, and then have 1-2 good starters ready to strengthen the pen. After two straight years where the October version of the pen was really thin, it would be really fun to have an October where the pen was extra deep.
I'd also think that getting consistent rotation pitching would also make it easier to pace the pen, and keep those guys fresh and strong.
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The only time the rotation "order" matters is in the postseason, and you have a whole season of performance to base that on. Other than that a SP is a SP, and any importance attached to it is a product of fan obsessiveness.
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As hard of a time as you have given me for years if I were a man with less moral fiber I would give you a hard time.
Seeing that Im not all I will say is now I understand why you like Hendricks so much.
You think he's a former Cy Young winner.
I guess I'd like him better too if that were the case.
You would give me a hard time for having a shitty memory, ADMITTING I HAVE A SHITTY MEMORY, and admitting I was wrong in what I posted?
Have it it.
I honestly would like to see it.
As to thinking Hendricks is a former Cy Young winner, you are using the wrong verb tense. I have a bad memory. I am not blind or unable to read the records which show where he finished, and my prior comments should make clear I have now done so. I THOUGHT he won it -- I do not now THINK he won it.
As to the strength of your "moral fiber" (though I think you actually mean "character"), unless it has changed greatly, you have done a pretty good job establishing that here over the years.
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The only time the rotation "order" matters is in the postseason, and you have a whole season of performance to base that on. Other than that a SP is a SP, and any importance attached to it is a product of fan obsessiveness.
Who a manager ranks as #5 is sometimes important during the season as well (though not the first four) because the fifth starter is often skipped 5-10 times a season.
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Should have been the LOB%. His HR/FB% is under 10% for his career I believe, but can’t remember for sure.
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The Cubs will be able to take their time in developing their minor league starters. Absent Darvish opting out, the starting 5 will potentially be around through 2020. Smyly will hopefully be healthy in 2019 to provide insurance. Montgomery will also be around if he isn't traded. Alzolay might be ready for the MLs by 2019, but there won't be any need to rush him. Seems like an ideal situation.
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Jes...
Do you remember the year Mark Grace hit .400,won a gold glove,and won MVP?
Thats why I liked him so much.
I believe it was 1992.
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Jes...
Do you remember the year Mark Grace hit .400,won a gold glove,and won MVP?
Thats why I liked him so much.
I believe it was 1992.
Without checking, my guess is that Grace never drew a first place MVP vote, and I would bet that he was never named in one of the first three ballot spots. I was right on this one. Four times he got votes, though he never finished above 13th. No first place votes.
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Im playing with you.
I think I have as much of a fear of having a heart attack as you do Alzheimer's.
Though it does seem like the sudden non suffering of a heart attack might seem like the ideal way to go.
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That is only if you have a widow maker heart attack. Most heart attacks you will survive and then will get the joy of multiple doctor visits, multiple medications and SOB. The really fun part will be planning trips out of the house around when you have to ****. You're welcome.
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Im playing with you.
I think I have as much of a fear of having a heart attack as you do Alzheimer's.
Though it does seem like the sudden non suffering of a heart attack might seem like the ideal way to go.
No, The ideal way to go is to be shot and killed by a jealous husband as you sneak out of his young supermodel wife's bedroom on your 99th birthday.
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As stupid as this may sound what was the first letter in the word that was blocked?
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P, another term for urination.
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Ok.
I thought it might have been S.
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In all seriousness Jes, I have seen some studies that suggest the ketogenic diet shows promise in slowing our even reversing senility and memory loss. Check it out.
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Extremely small studies and before starting a keto diet you should talk to your doctor.
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Heyman says the Cubs called Arrieta before the Darvish signing to gauge Jake's interest in a similar deal, and it was turned down. Not sure I believe this fully--I think it makes sense to reach out to Arrieta one last time, but I can't believe they'd offer similar money to what Darvish got when Darvish was a much better target.
https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/
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That sounds like some Boras shenanigans.
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There's no way in hell Theo offered Arrieta 6/126. It's a fantasy.
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I think I have as much of a fear of having a heart attack as you do Alzheimer's.
Though it does seem like the sudden non suffering of a heart attack might seem like the ideal way to go.
Alzheimer's is an inherited disease.
Both of my parents had it. My father died of it.
Earlier is afternoon I went about 20 minutes unable to remember the location of the TV station I worked at in Chattanooga for three years. I finally did recall it. A few years ago I went a period of about two weeks when I could not remember my social security number. The biggest reason I lost my law license was related to memory problems.
But from what I have heard (or as least what I remember :) ) heart attacks are not painless. It might be a bit short of "ideal,"
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In all seriousness Jes, I have seen some studies that suggest the ketogenic diet shows promise in slowing our even reversing senility and memory loss. Check it out.
Thanks.... I'll check it out tomorrow.... if I remember. :-)
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Projections update:
After the Darvish signing...Fangraphs has the Cubs at 94 wins, tied with the Dodgers for second in MLB and only behind the Astros. ZiPS hasn't been rolled in yet...when ZiPS is added, Cubs projections will improve.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
PECOTA has the Cubs at 92 wins, second in the NL and 5th overall. Cubs are also projected as one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, which is probably 3-4 wins below reality. PECOTA has the Cubs as an easy playoff team, and it's clearly significantly underrating them in one area.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
Projection systems think the Cubs will be really good again this year, FWIW.
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One international scout who has observed Darvish, 31, since his days pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters of the Japan Pacific League (2005-11), believes Darvish has plenty to prove.
“He hasn’t done ‘it’ yet,” the scout said. “In Japan, he basically was playing with hitters. With the four to six pitches he throws, it looked like Wiffle ball.”
...
But his obsession with using his large array of pitches has prevented him from fulfilling the dominance many projected.
“His fastball and slider are quality pitches,” the scout said. “If the Cubs can convince him to be aggressive, that’s my only concern.”
According to the Bill James Handbook 2018, Darvish threw his fastball only 52 percent of the time, followed by his slider (25 percent), cut fastball (15 percent), curve (6 percent) and changeup (2 percent).
Despite missing all of 2015 while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, Darvish’s fastball averaged 94.2 mph — up 1 mph from 2016.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-yu-darvish-20180211-story.html
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The Cubs could be pretty bad defensively in the OF on the days Heyward isn't playing, but with Bryant, Russell, Baez and Rizzo around the infield it's hard to imagine them as one of the worst defensive teams in baseball.
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With Heyward in right and Almora in center the Cubs will have one bad fielder. The rest are average to excellent. Can't see them being the worst defensive anything this year.
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Brett Taylor's take on Heyman's report: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/12/cubs-reportedly-offered-jake-arrieta-a-deal-similar-to-yu-darvish-however/
Assuming something like this actually occurred, it isn't clear how "close" the Cubs offer was to the Darvish offer.
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Brett Taylor's take on Heyman's report: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/12/cubs-reportedly-offered-jake-arrieta-a-deal-similar-to-yu-darvish-however/
Assuming something like this actually occurred, it isn't clear how "close" the Cubs offer was to the Darvish offer.
Offer Arrieta a one year, $15M guaranteed contract with a $5 bonus for reaching 200 innings, another $5M for being in the top 3 in Cy Young voting and another $5M for winning it -- so if he returns to 2015 form, he would have a $30M contract AND be free to enter the free agent market on that high note.... and the Cubs would go thru 2018 with what would probably be the best rotation in history.
If even the $15M base would be too much for the luxury tax penalties, then drop the base to $5M and add other incentives that would be incredibly easy to reach -- like a $10M bonus for throwing his first regular season pitch.
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With Heyward in right and Almora in center the Cubs will have one bad fielder. The rest are average to excellent. Can't see them being the worst defensive anything this year.
Yeah, that's weird. I suppose it's a computer thing, so by defensive metrics Almora was pretty below average? I'm guessing they maybe have Willson pretty far below average, too.
I'd expect a lot of good defense this summer.
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Yeah, that's weird. I suppose it's a computer thing, so by defensive metrics Almora was pretty below average? I'm guessing they maybe have Willson pretty far below average, too.
I'd expect a lot of good defense this summer.
Almora only had 643 innings in CF last year. That isn't even a full year and you really need multiple seasons for it to matter. His DRS was -1 last year and is UZR/150 was 2.3. His UZR/150 put him in line with Jackie Bradley last year.
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I’m pretty sure PECOTA had the Cubs’ defense as a negative when first published last year, and they changed it once someone pointed it out. They have the Cubs at least two wins (and probably three) below where they should be because of their defensive projection.
I think most defensive metrics had Contreras above average last year because his throwing/athleticism is so good that it outweighs his receiving negatives. If they have him below average, I think they’re wrong.
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If I’m reading BP correct their version of WAR had in at 3.1 (includes framing). Fangraphs has him at 3.2.
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I think Contreras and Almora are both pretty close to composite average when you weigh up their positives and negatives. The difference (apart from offensive value of course) is that Contreras at least theoretically could improve on his areas of weakness.
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Almora only had 643 innings in CF last year. That isn't even a full year and you really need multiple seasons for it to matter. His DRS was -1 last year and is UZR/150 was 2.3. His UZR/150 put him in line with Jackie Bradley last year.
I'd just been thinking that if all they have to enter into their computer spreadsheet is the small-sample unreliable number, what else do they have to enter? So, shaky number entered can lead to shaky outcoe.
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Wherever our position players should rank among league starters, the great news is that most all of our starters (certainly Contreras and Almora) are still quite young and can reasonably project to be BETTER in 2018 and thereafter while they're under Cub control!
Lots more fun upcoming!
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I'd just been thinking that if all they have to enter into their computer spreadsheet is the small-sample unreliable number, what else do they have to enter? So, shaky number entered can lead to shaky outcoe.
Didn't they used to call that GIGO?
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On the radio this morning, Mike Krukow expressed serious doubts about Yu. He said that Yu is a guy that readily loses confidence and that he will have a hard time recovering from his disastrous WS.
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Yeah, no big deal, those grapes were probably sour anyway.
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The first time he has to wear PJ's on a trip, his confidence will be the least of his concerns.
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Full Darvish contract terms:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs
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Gimenez:
“I heard [the Dodgers] took his breaking ball away from him [Darvish threw just three curveballs in the World Series after throwing the pitch 6 percent of time during the regular season]. I can understand, it’s not like his slider, but it does effectively set up other pitches. I watched him pitch in the World Series, and it wasn’t necessarily him.”
The issue of what pitch arsenal to focus on with Darvish is one that doesn't get talked about enough. It's not a matter of not having enough of one with him - it's having too much arsenal. He not only has probably 7-8 pitches, he likes them. Darvish likes to toy with hitters and make them look bad. What's the golden mean with him? Obviously the fastball and slider are the core of the arsenal, but what else? When he was in Japan a lot of people thought his spiltter was the best in NPB. Clearly Gimenez thinks Darvish needs the slow curve as a setup pitch (I think he's right). And his change can be devastating, when it's on.
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Darvish deal is official.
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Full Darvish contract terms:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs
Thanks, br. Interesting sequence, and no-trade.
*An early report had alluded to "options" plural, so I'd wondered whether in addition to Yu's opt-out after 2, whether the Cubs might have an option on year 6. Doesn't seem so.
*Having it slightly front-loaded might seem a mild encouragement to opt out.
*Having it decline during years 5 and 6 seems logical, given aging, and that the Cubs could be pretty cash-strapped.
*Heh heh, funny that Yu's last year is same as Lackey's! :)
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So after 2019, Darvish needs to decide if he can top 4/$81 or not. And hopefully he'll still be worth that to the Cubs after 2019.
Considering the market, that's a nicely constructed contract for both sides I think.
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Gimenez:
The issue of what pitch arsenal to focus on with Darvish is one that doesn't get talked about enough. It's not a matter of not having enough of one with him - it's having too much arsenal. He not only has probably 7-8 pitches, he likes them. Darvish likes to toy with hitters and make them look bad. What's the golden mean with him? Obviously the fastball and slider are the core of the arsenal, but what else? When he was in Japan a lot of people thought his spiltter was the best in NPB. Clearly Gimenez thinks Darvish needs the slow curve as a setup pitch (I think he's right). And his change can be devastating, when it's on.
That will be interesting, deeg. Which pitches, when, and how many. Could be cross purposes, too. You want to make guys look silly, but trying to throw seven pitches and trying to get guys to chase can lead to a lot of non-strikes, long counts, and bullpen wear.
Scout in Tribune article other day said he thought Darvish needed to be more aggressive with his fastball and slider.
Should be fun to watch. I recall years ago Harry talking about Rick Sutcliffe, that he had 4 good pitches and it sometimes took a little while to figure out which were working on a given day, but that if he ever had a day when all four were on at the same time, he'd throw a no-hitter.
I wonder if having a bucket of pitches might be helpful in withstanding the effects of years late in his contract? Maybe still have enough variety to stay effective even if the fastball slows down a little?
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Darvish press conference is about to start on Facebook live:
https://www.facebook.com/Cubs/videos/10155886576880659/
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That will be interesting, deeg. Which pitches, when, and how many. Could be cross purposes, too. You want to make guys look silly, but trying to throw seven pitches and trying to get guys to chase can lead to a lot of non-strikes, long counts, and bullpen wear.
Scout in Tribune article other day said he thought Darvish needed to be more aggressive with his fastball and slider.
Should be fun to watch. I recall years ago Harry talking about Rick Sutcliffe, that he had 4 good pitches and it sometimes took a little while to figure out which were working on a given day, but that if he ever had a day when all four were on at the same time, he'd throw a no-hitter.
I wonder if having a bucket of pitches might be helpful in withstanding the effects of years late in his contract? Maybe still have enough variety to stay effective even if the fastball slows down a little?
I would agree that variety is likely to help Darvish age well. He's not a guy who has to average 94-95 to be effective.
I do think Yu's 4-seamer is a better pitch if he throws the curve 10-12 times a game. Hell, I even like the ephus pitch for him, though he hasn't used it for a few years. Most of his stuff is pretty hard, 86-plus.
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So after 2019, Darvish needs to decide if he can top 4/$81 or not. And hopefully he'll still be worth that to the Cubs after 2019.
Considering the market, that's a nicely constructed contract for both sides I think.
If he opts out after two years, he's probably done so well we've won two more World Series. I'm more worried that many will wish he would opt out...that's means he didn't fare well.
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Great point, Curt. If it's a highly successful $45/2 contract, and then he leaves, that will go down as a very good signing.
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This seems to be the best reply from the Darvish press conference:
Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
Yu Darvish on #Cubs adding personal catcher Chris Gimenez: "I like Contreras better." (Laughter in media room.)
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He’ll fit right in...
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He obviously doesn't believe in framing!
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Hope he's cool with being called a mother F'er on the mound . . .
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Yu has a great sense of humor - that much will become clear in time. His general personality is quite a departure from what Americans think of as the stereotypical Japanese (of course, he's only half-Japanese).
As for the opt-out, look at it this way - if you were told you could sign Darvish to a 2 year $45 million contract this winter, would you have said no?
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Great point, Curt. If it's a highly successful $45/2 contract, and then he leaves, that will go down as a very good signing.
But Darvish had a hard time getting a huge contract at 32. If he's 34, even if it's coming off two big years, is he going to get something bigger than the four years he has left with the Cubs?
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If he's coming off two big years, yes, he will definitely get more than $81M guaranteed.
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*Heh heh, funny that Yu's last year is same as Lackey's! :)
I must be missing something here.
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I would agree that variety is likely to help Darvish age well. He's not a guy who has to average 94-95 to be effective.
I do think Yu's 4-seamer is a better pitch if he throws the curve 10-12 times a game. Hell, I even like the ephus pitch for him, though he hasn't used it for a few years. Most of his stuff is pretty hard, 86-plus.
I love the ephus pitch. It would be fun to see him revive it.
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If he's coming off two big years, yes, he will definitely get more than $81M guaranteed.
I don't think it's that clear. If this year's market is a consequence of the new CBA, I don't see the 2019-20 market being much more lucrative. And as I mentioned a couple days ago, the free agent market that year is loaded. At best, he's going to be the 3rd most desirable pitcher on the market (behind Sale and Bumgarner, who will each be 3 years younger than him). If Gerrit Cole re-establishes himself as a TOR pitcher over the next two years, he'll be 4 years younger and more desirable. And Gray, Odorizzi, Pineda, Porcello, Wood, Hamels, and McHugh could be nice targets who might be available for less.
I guess it depends on your definition of "big" years. If he's a Cy Young type pitcher the next two years (and 2/3 of Bumgarner, Sale, and Cole lose value), then maybe it makes sense. But if his big years are more like #2/fringe ace years (4-5 WAR), I think he'd have trouble finding more than 4/$81 at that point.
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Most big contracts dont work out and Darvish is on the wrong side of 30.
I bet he doesnt opt out.
If he does I like that we got him for only a 2 year deal anyway.
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I don't think it's that clear. If this year's market is a consequence of the new CBA, I don't see the 2019-20 market being much more lucrative. And as I mentioned a couple days ago, the free agent market that year is loaded. At best, he's going to be the 3rd most desirable pitcher on the market (behind Sale and Bumgarner, who will each be 3 years younger than him). If Gerrit Cole re-establishes himself as a TOR pitcher over the next two years, he'll be 4 years younger and more desirable. And Gray, Odorizzi, Pineda, Porcello, Wood, Hamels, and McHugh could be nice targets who might be available for less.
I guess it depends on your definition of "big" years. If he's a Cy Young type pitcher the next two years (and 2/3 of Bumgarner, Sale, and Cole lose value), then maybe it makes sense. But if his big years are more like #2/fringe ace years (4-5 WAR), I think he'd have trouble finding more than 4/$81 at that point.
Are you saying 4-5 WAR per year, or total, over the next two years? If he puts up 8-10 WAR next two years he’ll easily clear $100M.
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I’m saying 4-5 WAR per year.
I just don’t think it’s obvious anymore on opt outs. If this offseason is anywhere close to the new normal, I can’t see a 33 year old who is the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on the market getting the type of guarantee he’d have gotten before this year.
We’ll see. I could change my mind when Arrieta and (to a lesser extent) Cobb and Lynn sign...but if 31 year old Arrieta ends us signing for an 8-figure deal, I’d be more convinced of the non-opt out. Keuchel’s market next year will also be telling.
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I love the ephus pitch. It would be fun to see him revive it.
Many years ago there was a pitcher that threw the ephus pitch (luke Suwell comes to mind, but I am not sure) that made it to the All Star Game. His team mates convinced him to throw one to Ted Williams. He hit it so hard that it might be still going.
In fairness, Williams knew it was coming. That did eliminate some of the surprise value.
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Rip Sewell
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Most big contracts dont work out and Darvish is on the wrong side of 30.
I bet he doesnt opt out.
If he does I like that we got him for only a 2 year deal anyway.
If he DOES opt out, we can use that money to sign Chris Sale.
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Rip Sewell
Thanks, Dave.
When I was about 9 years old, my older cousin took me to a Cubs game, and we bought a program. The Cubs were playing the Reds, and my cousin was looking at it and saw that their manager was Sewell. When he read it, he said look here, it says "Swell - Manager". They need a Swell manager if they are going to beat our Cubs.
I thought it was the funniest thing I had ever heard.
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If I’m remembering correctly, Williams’ HR off Sewell in the ASG was the only HR ever hit off his eephus pitch...
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If I’m remembering correctly, Williams’ HR off Sewell in the ASG was the only HR ever hit off his eephus pitch...
Yeah.... I had also heard that.
"Sewell warned Williams before the game he was going to throw him the blooper. With the American League ahead 8–0, Williams came to bat, and Sewell nodded, indicating the blooper was coming. Williams fouled off the first blooper. Sewell nodded again, and threw another blooper and then another. With the count 1–2, Williams hit the blooper for a home run—the only home run ever hit off Sewell's blooper pitch. As Williams rounded the bases, Sewell followed him, saying, "the only reason you hit it was because I told you it was coming." Williams laughed, the fans loved it, and Sewell received a standing ovation when he walked off the mound. (Donald Honig, "Baseball When the Grass Was Real" (1975), p. 257).
Years later, Williams admitted that he had been running towards the pitcher's mound as he hit the ball, and photographs reveal that he was in front of the batter's box when he made contact—a violation of baseball rules." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rip_Sewell
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Like I said earlier.
I learn everything I need to know about baseball here.
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538 on the Yu signing:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yu-darvish-makes-the-cubs-a-top-tier-team-again/
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Theo: "When we acquired Quintana, we made the point that with the great contract he had, it might allow us to bring another pitcher with
him. We almost felt like we were acquiring one and a half pitchers in that deal because it would go halfway to acquiring someone else.
Today is that day."
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Jessie Rogers was on the Cubs Talk podcast and said the intial Darvish contract discussions was 5/$125 and it was the Cubs who pushed for the 6th year to bring down the AAV.
And put me in the he doesn’t opt out camp, because if he’s good enough at 33 to get better what is left on his contract then there is a good chance the contract escalators kick in.
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Theo: "When we acquired Quintana, we made the point that with the great contract he had, it might allow us to bring another pitcher with him. We almost felt like we were acquiring one and a half pitchers in that deal because it would go halfway to acquiring someone else. Today is that day."
That's a great insight into the interconnectedness of moves. I wasn't sure Eloy for Q was wise at the time, even though I knew the contract was good. But at the time I don't think I appreciated how much impact that could have on this offseason, or that it would enable adding a guy with Darvish's talent and ceiling.
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Sahadev Sharma
Verified account @sahadevsharma
55m55 minutes ago
Sahadev Sharma Retweeted The Athletic
Of all starters, minimum 500 IP, Yu Darvish's 29.7% strikeout rate is the best. Not just of current pitchers. Of all time.
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WOW!
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That's pretty amazing. Obviously it's a world where hitters all whiff, so contact-hitting just isn't a thing like in previous generations. But to be a higher K-guy than modern greats like Scherzer or Strasburg or Kershaw, that's pretty awesome.
I wonder how the Cubs will coach him to make him better. With Dodgers, he average 5.1 innings per start (not counting playoffs of course.) Not sure Maddon is that way. But it wouldn't shock me if the Cubs perhaps encouraged to adjust situationally toward a variably more pitch-to-contact approach? If it's taking 100 pitches to get through 5 innings with 7K's and 2 walks, maybe if the offense has scored some runs might it be OK to throw a few more fastballs and cutters early in the count, and allow some contact, but resolve a few more AB in 1-3 pitches instead of taking 6 pitches per batter?
Hard to know. I like the Dodgers way, keeping the exposure and the wear on the starters limited so they're strong for November baseball, and of course a lot of pitchers aren't as effective 3rd and 4th times through the order. So being fine with mostly 6 inning starts on a good day, and being fine with 5-inning starts on days that aren't as easy, that seems maybe smart to me.
But, keeping the wear down on the starters at the expense of the bullpen is a mixed blessing too, if the pen is going 3-4 innings every single day. I'm glad it's guys wiser than me thinking that stuff through.
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That's an impressive accomplishment, but it has to be viewed within the context of the modern era of the strikeout.
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Thanks for recommendation to pay for the Athletic. Mooney and Sharma are good, I took the plunge with some birthday money. :)
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A lot of stats get thrown around these days, but that's one that means something. Leading all SP ever in K% is not a trivial thing.
More so than with most guys (maybe any guys) a lot comes down to coaching with Darvish. If you can get the 16-17 Darvish healthy enough to give you 30 starts, he's easily worth $21M per season. If you can get the next-level Yu, who translates his dominant pure stuff into bottom-line results, he could be among the best half-dozen SP in baseball. I personally believe the Dodgers restrictor plate approach was too limiting - let Yu be Yu. But I do think you want to get him focused on 4 pitches, maybe 5. Obviously the 4-seamer and slider and two of them - it's a matter of figuring out what the others are.
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Hope springs eternal, I love the spring stories, maybe especially before exhibition games actually begin. Have already seen three classics.
Mooney had an article with Montgomery. I think we've noted that Montgomery had said he'd prefer to start. Anyway, in the article MM suggested that the usage was hard on him, and that his arm got really worn out. Said he's talked to the Cubs about using him a little differently, if possible, this year. He didn't seem to have any attitude at all, seems like a thoughtful, good guy. But noted that his usage was so unusual that he doesn't think either he or the Cubs totally knew how to do it best, and that he thinks both he and they are positioned to be somewhat smarter about it this year. Part of it is on him, of course. Athletes are all tough heros, and want to help the team, so it's hard for guys to say my arm is tired. MM sounded like he knows he needs to be more honest this year, and be more willing to say so when he's not good to go. But I think the Cubs need to give him more rest. He mentioned one time, which I think I remember, where he started a game and threw 5-6 innings, then came back only 3 days later and pitched 3 more. They'd never do that mid-season with Q or Lester; don't think should with MM either.
I wonder if they'll be a little more careful and restful with him during periods where he may be starting? Or whether, perhaps, they'll use him less as a starter? For example, is Tseng was doing well for Iowa, and they needed an occassional fill-in start, perhaps is Tseng was reasonably anti-awful, maybe it woudl be better to use him for the spot starts and leave MM in relief? Or else if MM does get used in rotation, to keep him there on a regular schedule for a bunch of weeks, even if that means skipping some starts for other guys or going 6-deep for a while?
Think he's a smart guy, and Cubs are smart too. So I'm hopeful that having gone through it for a year, that they'll all be a little wiser about how to both utilize him but also protect him, to mutual benefit.
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I know it's been talked about, but the Cubs could go with a 6-man rotation - at least for part of the season. I certainly think they're deep enough to make that work.
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That's an impressive accomplishment, but it has to be viewed within the context of the modern era of the strikeout.
Agreed. And in the context of the modern era of the strikeout, Yu is without peer.
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Yeah, could see doing that for a while. 3 thoughts:
1. That shortens the pen by an arm. Kinda want to have all of your relievers used and effective to get by with that. (As opposed to having Florio or Frankoff.....) Also might help if you had some 2-inning relievers, and let guys pitch through full innings and reduced the mid-inning switches.
2. If going with 6-man rotation, my mind views that as everybody going on 6-day rotation, one extra day. But I wonder if that isn't how they'd do it, instead just let one guy skip a start per rotation, so that each guy got a 10-11 day break. the next week Hendricks gets to skip and get a 10-day break, etc.. Maddon has seemed to talk about that with All-star, that getting a good solid 10-14 day break can really help some tired arms. I almost wonder, if you did 6 man on either side of the break, if you couldn't enable 2-week breaks for several or all of the regular starter?
Are you allowed to put guys on 10-day DL just for rest-purposes?
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For an old timer who watched Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Ryan...that stat is mind blowing.
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Oh. Old timer=Davep. Not me.
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Yeah, could see doing that for a while. 3 thoughts:
1. That shortens the pen by an arm. Kinda want to have all of your relievers used and effective to get by with that. (As opposed to having Florio or Frankoff.....) Also might help if you had some 2-inning relievers, and let guys pitch through full innings and reduced the mid-inning switches.
2. If going with 6-man rotation, my mind views that as everybody going on 6-day rotation, one extra day. But I wonder if that isn't how they'd do it, instead just let one guy skip a start per rotation, so that each guy got a 10-11 day break. the next week Hendricks gets to skip and get a 10-day break, etc.. Maddon has seemed to talk about that with All-star, that getting a good solid 10-14 day break can really help some tired arms. I almost wonder, if you did 6 man on either side of the break, if you couldn't enable 2-week breaks for several or all of the regular starter?
Are you allowed to put guys on 10-day DL just for rest-purposes?
I definitely don't like that second approach (and the answer to the DL question is no - at least in theory). If you're going to go with a 6-man I think it's a straight 6-day cycle, with Montgomery floating to the pen if there are multiple off days.
If you're going to go with a 13-man staff anyway (which I don't like) I wouldn't be concerned with a 6-man rotation shorting the bullpen one guy. A 7-man bullpen should be more than plenty with a 6-man rotation full of well-rested starters.
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For an old timer who watched Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Ryan...that stat is mind blowing.
Oh. Old timer=Davep. Not me.
Correct. I saw Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Ryan pitch.
Curt, on the other hand, saw Dizzy Dean, Grover Alexander and Walter Johnson pitch.
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Actually I think Curt was there when Candy Cummings threw the first curveball.
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Curt was his high school coach. Perhaps he taught it to him.
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I can get this abuse at home.
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The HS being shot up today is Rizzo's alma mater.
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Cheap depth in the pen:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
The #Cubs sign former #Mariners and #Braves reliever Shae Simmons to deal worth $750,000 if he’s in major leagues
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Simmons' numbers aren't terrible and he averages 96+ on the fastball. Interesting he's never been able to stick anywhere.
Edit: Didn't see the TJS stuff in there. Speaking of which, it's interesting Rosenthal hasn't signed anywhere. Wonder if his rehab isn't going well
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I thought I remembered the name. Taking a risk on guys that throw hard and sometimes you end up with Marrow.
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The #Cubs sign former #Mariners and #Braves reliever Shae Simmons to deal worth $750,000 if he’s in major leagues
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Braves fans really liked Simmons while he was here, for whatever that’s worth. This is a better than average minor league signing, I think.
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He's 27, and has a total of 177 pro innings. After 46 innings in 2014, minors and Atlanta, missed 2015 and hasn't reached 30 innings in either of 2016 or 2017.
But he was really effective prior to the surgery. His career minors ERA is 2.06, with 184K/1HR in 131 innings. Interesting pickup, if he's recovered fully and were to remain so.
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Simmons seems like he has a profile similar to Rondon, at least as far as his history and potential for success goes. He has good stuff and has been good when healthy, but has also been hurt a lot. He's a guy has a good chance of completely flaming out, but could have some real upside if he's suddenly able to stay healthy.
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/9/4/16251074/shae-simmons-is-fighting-rust-with-fire-for-the-mariners-in-the-wild-card-hunt
Here's a super-gush note on Simmons from Seattle fan. Shows some film, and talks a bit about his 2017 injuries.
Film is from late summer, and he's got plenty of velocity, arm looks plenty strong, but zero location. Interesting guy to have pitching at Iowa, and seems like a fascinating reclamation project.
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Speaking of hard throwing righties with command issues Corey Black is throwing again. Iowa could have some interesting bullpen options this year.
Black
Simmons
Alvarez
Maples
Rosario
I think there are a couple minor league FA that I’m missing too.
Starting depth isn’t as great
Tseng
Mills
Farrell
Zastrynzy
Underwood
Alzolay
I wonder if they’ll move Underwood to the pen or give him another year at starting?
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Brandon Morrow...
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Black just got arrested again. Unless and until he learns to keep his head out of his ass and his ass out of trouble, he's no factor.
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Google is failing me I can't find where he was ever arrested?
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I'll have to see if I can find the mention of it I read a few weeks back. There was a comment by a Cubs source about him needing to show "emotional maturity" or some such, and a note of an altercation at a club.
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His maturity has praised at Cubs convention FWIW.
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Corey Black hasn't had a walk-rate below 4.6 since his draft summer with the Yankees, before being traded for Soriano.
Even if his arm was healthy and he's very mature, he's about as long a wildman-shot as I can imagine.
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Corey Black hasn't had a walk-rate below 4.6 since his draft summer with the Yankees, before being traded for Soriano.
Even if his arm was healthy and he's very mature, he's about as long a wildman-shot as I can imagine.
That is kinda the point though. If he had control with his fastball/breaking ball he’d already be in the majors. I’ll take power arm that can’t throw strikes and hope he figures it out vs Frankoff or his like who the stuff is lacking.
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The HS being shot up today is Rizzo's alma mater.
@MDGonzales
15m15 minutes ago
More
Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo has returned to Florida to be with his family and Parkland community
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Jesse Rogers
Here is ESPN's story on the Fla shooting with Rizzo's stuff at the top. I tweeted earlier, his agent had a relative die in the shooting. Just awful:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22443705/anthony-rizzo-chicago-cubs-issues-condolences-florida-alma-mater
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Jesse Rogers
Here is ESPN's story on the Fla shooting with Rizzo's stuff at the top. I tweeted earlier, his agent had a relative die in the shooting. Just awful:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22443705/anthony-rizzo-chicago-cubs-issues-condolences-florida-alma-mater
Well, as long as people send condolences and prayers, that should make everything fine and prevent such horrific events in the future. In the first 7 weeks of this year there have been 8 school shootings already. So that is more than once each week. And that's just school shootings. The only thing that has happened in between has been lots of condolences and prayers.
This seems to be something Americans are willing to put up with (or at least their government representatives are) so long as the appropriate amount of angst is expressed after each mass shooting.
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I have a solution, but it wouldn't be popular with the political slant of this board. Unfortunately our politicians on both sides don't really want solutions. They want to use these horrific acts as political fodder to get their agenda passed. "Never let a good crisis pass" mindset.
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Both sides equally bad, huh? Mmk
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Both sides equally bad, huh? Mmk
False equivalence rears its head once again.
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I see the political thread sprung a leak....
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Sorry. Just wanted to provide additional detail on why Rizzo left.
In other news Phillies are asking about Montgomery in a trade.
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They can have him for Vince Velasquez.
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It would be ironic if the Cubs didn't want to use Montgomery as the fifth starter because he was more valuable as a swing man, and then traded him because he was now the swing man, and thus superfluous.
I remember when the Cubs traded Palmeiro for Mitch Williams because they needed a closer, and the next winter the sports writers were clamoring to trade Williams for an outfielder because of the hole in left field.
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I have a solution, but it wouldn't be popular with the political slant of this board. Unfortunately our politicians on both sides don't really want solutions. They want to use these horrific acts as political fodder to get their agenda passed. "Never let a good crisis pass" mindset.
Well, as long as people send condolences and prayers, that should make everything fine and prevent such horrific events in the future. In the first 7 weeks of this year there have been 8 school shootings already. So that is more than once each week. And that's just school shootings. The only thing that has happened in between has been lots of condolences and prayers.
This seems to be something Americans are willing to put up with (or at least their government representatives are) so long as the appropriate amount of angst is expressed after each mass shooting.
Is there some reason these posts are not in the Politics thread?
Aren't discussions like this the REASON the Politics thread was created?
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Tim Lincecum threw a showcase today, and somewhere between 15-20 teams were there to watch him. He apparently was throwing 91-93, which is harder than he threw in his last 3-5 years. If he's cheap enough, I wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs sign him as a RH compliment to Montgomery.
He'll probably sign with a team that will give him a chance to start, though.
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Agree Br.
Heyman predicts Holland to the Cubs...
https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-where-will-remaining-mlb-free-agents-go/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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Holland had a great first half last year. Outside those three months, he's been hurt, average-ish, or bad for 3 years. Cubs should pass.
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Not worthy the luxury tax or a second round pick.
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Holland had a great first half last year. Outside those three months, he's been hurt, average-ish, or bad for 3 years. Cubs should pass.
Are you looking at GREG Holland? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollagr01.shtml
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http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46401/how-does-mike-montgomery-feel-about-losing-his-rotation-spot-to-yu-darvish
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http://boysofspring.com/chilis-here-but-its-not-chilly/
http://boysofspring.com/yu-got-that-right/
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@MDGonzales
34m34 minutes ago
Shae Simmons will be added to 40-Man roster (with split contract), Drew Smyly will be transferred to 60-day DL
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What does split contract mean?
Does that preclude being fully able to send the guy to Iowa? (Without clearing waiver, or needing Simmons's permission....?)
Or does it still allow for the Cubs to keep control of his contract even if he doesn't make the 25-man roster?
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I think it means that he makes a certain amount of money while he is in the minors, and a different amount when he is in the majors. As I understand it, anyone on the 25 man roster must be paid at least the MLB minimum while there, but with a split contract, he would be paid a larger amount while called up.
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Thanks Dave. Given how small his contract is either way, I don't care about his salary. Drop in the bucket.
The larger question is whether adding him to the 40 means the Cubs lose club-control. If the Cubs send him down, will that both require everybody passes on claiming him via waivers and he wants to stay? Or by putting him on the 40, does that mean that *IF* the Cubs keep Grimm instead, that Shae could walk away if he wants, or any team in baseball could claim him if they wanted?
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Craig, Simmons has three options remaining. He's under club control just like Maples is.
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Cheap depth in the pen:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
The #Cubs sign former #Mariners and #Braves reliever Shae Simmons to deal worth $750,000 if he’s in major leagues
$120,000.00 at Iowa.
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Thanks Dave. Given how small his contract is either way, I don't care about his salary. Drop in the bucket.
The larger question is whether adding him to the 40 means the Cubs lose club-control. If the Cubs send him down, will that both require everybody passes on claiming him via waivers and he wants to stay? Or by putting him on the 40, does that mean that *IF* the Cubs keep Grimm instead, that Shae could walk away if he wants, or any team in baseball could claim him if they wanted?
As Jeff said above, he has options left, so he can ride the shuttle between Iowa and Chicago all year and still have options left next year.
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Craig, Simmons has three options remaining. He's under club control just like Maples is.
Interesting, I hadn't expected that. That makes it especially nice; if he's healthy and has big-league stuff, having 3 years of options provides a lot of flexibility both roster-wise, and in terms of having some time to develop the guy and re-discover the not-that-awful control he had years ago.
I'm an optimist, so I think it's pretty fun.
Objectively, though, it speaks to how wild/unhealthy and long-shot he was perceived to be, that Seattle kicked him off their 40 with 3 option years left.
They wouldn't do that if they thought he had much chance.
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Prospects traded since 2015 under Dipito from Eric Longenhagen.
Luiz Gohara
Tyler O’Neill
Nick Neidert
Alex Jackson
Freddy Peralta
Enyel De Los Santos
Carlos Vargas
Alexander Campos
Chris Torres
Drew Jackson
Juan Then
Brayan Hernandez
Juan De Paula
Ryan Yarbrough
Thyago Vieira
Brandon Miller
JP Sears
Pablo Lopez
Pedro Vasquez
Carlos Herrera
Erick Mejia
Luis Rengifo
Jio Orozco
Aneurys Zabala
He is in extreme win now mode.
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Is this correct? When a player spends one day in the majors, he earns a major league salary for the entire month with no prorating.
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It may well be true, but I have never heard of it.
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I do know that 1 day in the bigs gets you medical coverage for Life. 35 days gets you $35,000 in pension and 10 years gets you $110,00 pension for life.
Pretty sure that you get league minimum for days spent in the bigs approx. $3,000 per day.
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https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/cubs-looked-to-trade-addison-russell-in-offseason-report-says-474394843.html
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/enter-jim-hickey-cubs-new-pitching-coach-tasked-shepherding-one-baseballs-best-staffs
Talk is easy. But I think some interesting and perhaps revealing comments re Hickey's approach.
“I have very few outcome goals in a season. I don’t sit there and say, ‘I want to lead the league in earned-run average’ or ‘I want to lead the league in strikeouts.’ … But that one thing, that one outcome goal that I always have for a staff is to have the least amount of walks in the league...."
“I really think that walks, especially out of the bullpen, are a little bit more of a mindset than they are anything physically or mechanically wrong,” he said. “You come into a situation where maybe you give up a base hit and maybe it changes the game, so you’re a little bit reluctant to throw the ball over the plate. So I think it’s more of a mindset, and once the group gets the mindset of ‘attack, attack, attack,’ it’ll be contagious...."
"...we talk about it all the time, the starters pitching innings and not falling into this pattern of starters being used less and less and the bullpen being used more and more. If you were to give me a staff of five guys, or give anybody a staff of five guys, that threw between 185 and 200 innings, you would probably have a championship-caliber club. And that’s what my expectations are out of this staff, and I think they will be a championship-caliber club.”
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My thoughts, in response:
1. Sounds like Hickey is NOT on board with the Dodgers shorter-and-shorter-and-shorter rotation-usage. Sounds like he's going to want his starters to absorb a lot of innings.
2. Sounds good! I love the sound of that.
3. The flip, of course, is that it's not easy to both do that, and to also stay strong and sharp into November; and to also stay strong and sharp through the 6th and 7th (and 8th?) innings start after start after start.
-Chatwood isn't a big guy, and he doesn't have good command. So, he might struggle to stay sharp through 6 innings routinely, much less 7; and it might take him a lot of pitches on a lot of nights to get through 6 much less 7.
-Hendricks isn't a power guy. Not sure whether pushing him beyond 6 innings is something you'll want to do super often.
-A lot of starts, Lester used a lot of pitches and was often near 100 by end of 5th. If they push his limits, will he have anything left in October?
-Darvish was better last year with Dodgers averaging 5.1 than with Texas.
-Montgomery isn't a strikes-machine; may struggle to get many 6- or 7-inning starts.
4. I imagine Hickey and the Cubs can see that too. So how do you get innings from the starters without wearing them down, or without getting hit hard in the 6th/7th innings? I assume that has to mean that Hickey's "attack, attack, attack" mentality would have to apply somewhat to the starters as well as the relievers. Might need to pitch to contact a little more; use the fastball (the easiest pitch to throw for strikes and easiest for hitters to put into play) a little more often? If you do get ahead 1-2, maybe you still throw a few more hittable fastballs rather than going straight to a series of chase pitches in hopes of K?
Bullpen:
1. I LOVE his "attack, attack, attack" mindset for the relievers.
2. I think last year was a nibble-approach, and did contribute to the walk-rate.
3. Again, I think attack-attack would mean Strop and Edwards and Grimm and Wilson being willing to throw more fastballs for strikes, perhaps hittable fastballs. That may come at the expense of some chase pitches and K's. So I know for myself, I've got to be willing to accept that, and accept that there will be days when Strop or Edwards might get beat by hits, not just by walks; and maybe the HR's will go up for each of them.
4. Hickey can say it's more mindset than physical. But I suspect that for all six of Strop, Edwards, Grimm, Wilson, Maples, and Montgomery, there's a whole lot of physical involved!!!! A whole lot of their pitches are balls not because of mind-set, but just because they have no idea where the ball will go! :)
5. I also wonder whether Hickey may want to protect the relievers a little more. A little less mid-inning dirty-inning switching? Even if that means sometimes Strop stays in versus a lefty, and sometimes gets beat? Or Wilson sometimes stays in versus a righty, and sometimes gets beat? I guess I'm thinking that it's kinda hard to instill an attack-attack-attack mentality, if manager/coach actions make pretty clear that they're going to yank you if you ever allow a baserunner.
I do think an "attack" approach would seem to be helpful. If often seemed that hitters always knew that if Lester or a reliever ever got to 0-2 or 1-2, it was 99% certain that they'd throw a chase pitch well off the plate on the next pitch. Not much threat. Or if they threw a fastball for a strike, pretty certain that they'd never sequence two fastballs in a row.
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Starters IP 2017
11.) Rays 899.1 (5.55 IP/Start)
15.) Cubs 888.1 (5.48 IP/Start)
17.) Dodger 885 (5.46 IP/Start)
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https://theathletic.com/244150/2018/02/16/in-a-shocking-development-jon-lester-isnt-pleased-about-mlbs-possible-pace-of-play-rule-changes/
Lester opposed to any pitch-clock, or to limiting visits to the mound. He notes that with technology, it's easier for opponents to cheat on signs. Using that as logic for pitcher-to-mound visits, logically I guess he'd like to have the catcher go to the mound on every pitch. Boring....
Heh heh, I have wondered whether the pitcher and catcher could each have a communication device with the dugout. Dugout could just call pitches into mutual earbuds for both guys, and pitcher could still shake his head? Or they each have a little smartphone on their wrist (or something smaller), to message slider or cutter or whatever, or have the dugout message that to them? Or would those all just get intercepted?
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-Hendricks isn't a power guy. Not sure whether pushing him beyond 6 innings is something you'll want to do super often.
Is there some reason to believe a power pitcher does better beyond the 6th inning than non-power pitchers?
It would seem that the power pitcher who relies on blowing pitches by hitters would be more susceptible to getting tagged after losing a bit on the radar gun than the guy who was not really relying on speed in the first pace.
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Or would those all just get intercepted?
It works in the NFL.
That sort of communication could save a lot of mound visits--especially the "here comes a pinch hitter, we better go talk about how to work this guy" visit, which I think is the one I hate most.
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Starters IP 2017
11.) Rays 899.1 (5.55 IP/Start)
15.) Cubs 888.1 (5.48 IP/Start)
17.) Dodger 885 (5.46 IP/Start)
Pretty trivial difference, 14 inning scatter between the three. :)
Still, maybe slightly interesting that a staff with the Dodger aces is averaging less than Tampa's less-ace-ish staff. (Which had injured-September Archer, Cobb coming back from injury, etc. I might have anticipated that a staff with LA's studs might have been in the top-10.
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I don’t read quite as much into Hickey’s statements as Craig, but I confess I’m not a big fan of the “pound five starters hard” approach. I think the evidence shows that starters whose usage is moderated during the season are better in the postseason. And that’s should really be the priority for the Cubs - we should have plenty to win the division without getting 1000 innings out of our top 5 starters.
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Is there some reason to believe a power pitcher does better beyond the 6th inning than non-power pitchers?
It would seem that the power pitcher who relies on blowing pitches by hitters would be more susceptible to getting tagged after losing a bit on the radar gun than the guy who was not really relying on speed in the first pace.
Your logic and reasoning is good. Yeah, you might think a guy where velocity is a big factor would be more vulnerable to losing even a little bit. And I shouldn't have included the "power pitcher" allusion.
It does seem that Maddon tended to keep Hendricks on a shorter leash, at least in 15 and 16. Maybe that's dumb, but maybe they had stats to support that. (Last year, it often seemed when he was sharp he seemed better able to remain effective into 7th and even 8th.)
I'm just thinking that based on past usage, Maddon isn't going to give Hendricks as long of a pitch count as for some of the others. Rightly or wrongly.
Also seems a standard (even if of questionable truth) view that bigger stronger guys are supposedly more durable as rotation guys who can carry innings and pitch deep. That may be bogus. But neither Hendricks nor Chatwood are of the builds that Baseball American has traditionally profiled as rotation-ready. We do know from stats that Chatwood's 3rd-time-through-order stats were pretty bad. For whatever reason.
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It works in the NFL.
That sort of communication could save a lot of mound visits--especially the "here comes a pinch hitter, we better go talk about how to work this guy" visit, which I think is the one I hate most.
The pinch hitter visits usually don't take all that long.
The ones that can get lengthy are when a reliever just got up in the pen and needs time to get ready. Managers would soon find ways around any limit on the number of those visits. Our shortstop used to have a problem with one of his contact lenses every so often.
Just tossing this out as an idea - once a catcher has gone to the mound, the manager can't go out until another pitch is thrown.
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It works in the NFL.
That sort of communication could save a lot of mound visits--especially the "here comes a pinch hitter, we better go talk about how to work this guy" visit, which I think is the one I hate most.
Coaches flash hitters signs all of the time. Why not signs for the pitchers in such routine situations? Why in the world have a coach or manager walk out to talk to the pitcher to say, "Just don't give this guy anything to hit. Walk him if you have to, but he can't hit anything up and in, and no way he should have a ball he can drive." Or, "Let him put the ball in play and don't worry about it."
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It does seem that Maddon tended to keep Hendricks on a shorter leash, at least in 15 and 16. Maybe that's dumb, but maybe they had stats to support that. (Last year, it often seemed when he was sharp he seemed better able to remain effective into 7th and even 8th.)
I'm just thinking that based on past usage, Maddon isn't going to give Hendricks as long of a pitch count as for some of the others. Rightly or wrongly.
That may be a factor of it being Hendricks, not it being a non-power pitcher.
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Quote
Or would those all just get intercepted?
It works in the NFL.
That sort of communication could save a lot of mound visits--especially the "here comes a pinch hitter, we better go talk about how to work this guy" visit, which I think is the one I hate most.
I think it should be a two way communications device so they can pass ideas back and forth on what they are thinking. This would take less time then waiting for the manager to walk out there then waiting for him to walk back. The catcher wont be saying much with the batter in his face but he can hear the manager and pitcher conversation.
If the devices fail during a game (like they do in football) then go back to the old rules until they are fixed.
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I can just imagine the 2049 season and the teams are instructed to go back to "the old ways." The catcher scratches his head. "I'm supposed to give my pitcher the finger?"
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Why not take technology all the way and have batting helmets contain receivers too?
Hitters would not have to step out of the box to look at the third base coach for signs and base runners could be instructed whether or not to steal or when a bunt or hit and run was on.
If you accuse me of being a traditionalist, I'll readily plead guilty.
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A traditionalist thinks there is nothing wrong with the game as is...with no time restrictions...
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Thats me then.
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Me too...
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Darvish's odd quirk:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/20/huh-apparently-the-first-batter-of-the-game-wrecks-yu-darvish/
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Yep...
[attachment deleted by admin]
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Ben Zobrist saw limited duty during the 2017 postseason because of a back injury.
Zobrist did not participate in Wednesday's workout due to a back issue, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Manager Joe Maddon reiterated that there isn't major concern for Zobrist moving forward, saying, "We're just slow-playing it. He's fine." It's obviously a good sign that Zobrist didn't suffer any sort of serious setback, but it seems clear that the Cubs will take it easy with the veteran throughout the early portion of spring camp.
Joe Maddon says he's fine. I'm not so sure.
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Ben Zobrist saw limited duty during the 2017 postseason because of a back injury.
Joe Maddon says he's fine. I'm not so sure.
Any chance you could share your reasoning, sources or any medical reports?
Or would Maddon perhaps have better reasoning, sources or access to medical reports?
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D U L L A R D
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Schwarber really looks like he's about half as big as last year.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWm0yfsW4AEIpdD.jpg:small)
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I wonder if any of the Schwarber stuff will impact his hitting at all? I assume probably not? But, maybe being slimmer could make it a little bit easier to keep your balance while swing at low stuff or outside stuff?
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I just have to think in general getting into better shape can only be a good thing.
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It doesn't always translate into baseball skills though. We'll see - one area it can only help is his defense.
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Defense and base-running, bending down to pick up a rolling ball, that could benefit. Every increment of improvement is good, for sure. Still, he's going to remain a slow baserunner and no better than average outfielder.
Most of the reason to play Schwarber is for his bat. Unless he hits better, the body improvement may not make much difference. And I'm not sure losing weight helps the eyes/brain to better recognize spin or handle up-in-the-zone fastballs. Or maybe it does, maybe it makes a guy more flexible for adjusting to inside or outside, or to get around on inside fastballs or something. But I'm thinking most of hitting involves processing what you see and somehow being able to apply the bat to the place you think the ball will be once it reaches the plate; don't imagine shape improvement does anything for the processing.
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It may increase his injury potential, however. John Kruk used to say that you can pull muscles, but you can't pull fat.
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"When I'm hitting the ball, people say I'm strong. When I'm not hitting, they say I'm fat" - Hector Villanueva
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Swinging the bat is an athletic move. Anything that helps a player become more athletic has to help. Will it translate to better numbers? It might our it might not. He has increased his chances, but there are other factors involved as well.
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Seeing Schwarber in action it really is striking how tiny he looks compared to last year.
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If Schwarber does better this year, many will attribute it to the weight loss.
If Schwarber does worse this year, many will attribute it to the weight loss.
If Schwarber does exactly the same this year as 2017 and shows no improvement, many will attribute it to the weight loss
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It really is shocking how different Schwarber looks. I'm excited to see how that translates into performance on the field.
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It should make him a better defensive outfielder. I hope it doesn't cause his power to decrease much.
If he is better in the field, and makes substantially better contact, he could be outstanding.
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Bleacher Nation put together this comparison to last year:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWrxPORW4AMnpgD.jpg:small)
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If Schwarber can hit .250 he'll be an elite offensive player.
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Im a Schwarber fan.
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Duber thinks that Caratini will stay with the big club. I thought Gimenez had the inside track.
http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/even-entire-spring-schedule-go-guessing-cubs-25-man-roster-pretty-easy
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Sharma had article on same press conference comments, and he still assumed Giminez locked on, and Caratini off.
"Perhaps you could say there's a position battle between Chris Gimenez and Victor Caratini for the backup catcher spot, but calling it that is probably a stretch. It was just a few days ago that Maddon mentioned he doesn’t like young players with a lot of potential wasting away on the bench. Caratini fits that description quite well — well enough that Maddon specifically identified him by name — so expect to see him in Iowa to start the season."
The only other other position that might hypothetically have some competition is Grimm/Butler, both of whom are out of options, and both of whom can look bad enough at times to lose that spot. Not sure whether even that spot is really open, though, because the Cubs like K-stuff relievers, which Grimm is and Butler isn't.
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MLB Network's 30 Clubs in 30 Days focuses on the Cubs tonight.
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Bleacher Nation put together this comparison to last year:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWrxPORW4AMnpgD.jpg:small)
I watched the video on what Schwarber did to drop his excess baggage and it is exciting thinking of what the possibilities could be this year. He looks like an outfielder now, not a catcher. Having dropped 100 pounds myself in the last year and a half all I can say is any significant weight loss makes all the world of difference.
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Should be a big help for his outfielding.
A question I might have is whether it might cost him power? Is it all useless weight lost, and he's just as strong and the contact will be as powerful? Or will some of the fly balls that went over-the-wall be warning-track outs now? Hopefully it won't cost any, and he's as strong or stronger than before and can actually have better bat speed and exit velocity.
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CarrieMuskat 3h3 hours ago
Best news so far for #Cubs Schwarber: He doesn't have to wear the knee brace in OF. "It's funny because you don't think it has a big effect on you when you put it on but when you take it off, it really does feel different"
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Should be a big help for his outfielding.
A question I might have is whether it might cost him power? Is it all useless weight lost, and he's just as strong and the contact will be as powerful? Or will some of the fly balls that went over-the-wall be warning-track outs now? Hopefully it won't cost any, and he's as strong or stronger than before and can actually have better bat speed and exit velocity.
I have also wondered how much power (distance) he will lose because of the weight loss. But he has been known to hit some prodigious home runs in the short time he has been up, so he can afford to lose somef power if he can still get the barrel of the bat on the ball.
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I doubt he will lose any power at all. His bat speed should be the same, if not better.
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So when is Jake going to show up at camp on a one year deal ala Dexter Fowler?
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2022
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Bleacher Nation on Ian Happ and the leadoff spot:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/26/leadoff-or-not-well-probably-see-more-of-ian-happ-this-season/
It appears that there are four main candidates for leadoff: Happ, Almora, Zobrist, and Schwarber. The article says Maddon likes the idea of a switch hitter in the leadoff spot, so that would seem to give Happ and Zobrist the advantage. That article links to another article that talks about how Zobrist is going to start transitioning into more of a complimentary player this year (and with him already hurting after battling through nagging injuries last year, it seems to make sense for him to be a ~400 PA super sub rather than an everyday guy at this point).
So reading between the lines, it seems like Happ is probably the early favorite to be the primary leadoff guy. I'm on board with that--I think he's the best non-Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras fit on the team.
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I agree on Happ leading off.
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I'd say Schwarber if it weren't for last year. I'd probably go with Schwarber anyway.
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I like Happ because I think he has close to 2002 Mark Bellhorn upside. He’s not going to walk as much...but with a year of experience, maybe a boost in BA and walks gets him in the .350 OBP range. The rest of his numbers will be close to 2002 Bellhorn.
I know there were many different opinions of Bellhorn here at the time...but with the context of 15 more years, 2002 was probably the Cubs’ best non-Fowler leadoff year in the last couple of decades.
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No fixed guy, beats me. Not that keen on Happ, because he's really streaky.
Just wing it, go with who's hot?
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It’s pretty amazing how anonymous Happ is. On most teams, a guy of his prospect pedigree, draft status, and previous year performance would make him an major name on a national level. Instead, he’s just lumped into the scrum of young Cubs position players. He reasonably projects as a 3 WAR player in 2018, his first full year in the bigs.
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How many post season ab's did he have? Also surprising
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Less than Almora....
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Lester will start opening day. I think that's a good move, he's the respected veteran leader and well deserving.
I also think that obviates discussion of Hendricks vs Q vs Yu, or having one or more of them feeling disrespected and overlooked if not chosen. These guys seem classy and all should be smart enough to pull together and not be distracted. But sports egos are often massive, and we've already seen enough discussions on this board regarding valuing them 1-2-3-4.
Lester wasn't too hot last year, with his 4.33 ERA and 100 ERA+, and lots of HR's. I suspect he's really motivated to bounce back somewhat, and to prove he's not in decline or washed up. I'm really looking forward to seeing him have a good rebound year with somewhat better stuff. He's a hyper-competitive guy, and I look for him to improve his numbers this year.
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Also skips the Brewers and all their righties.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-willson-contreras-pitch-framing-20180227-story.html
Willson says they tried something last year, it didn't work, so he's going to go back to how he was catching in 2016, to try to reverse the bad pitch-framing results he had last year. We'll see, but that sounds hopeful. And it's pretty obvious he and they are aware of the framing issues last year.
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It's interesting that Happ so totally disappeared in the postseason last year, despite finishing the year pretty strongly and the Cubs' offensive woes in the playoffs. Maybe it was just Maddon not wanting to rely on the rookie, but that never seemed to stop him before - I wonder if there's a confidence gap with Joe for some reason.
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The only place they really could have played him was RF, unless you wanted to bench Javy, which wasn't going to happen.
Schwarber-Jay-Happ would have been a truly awful defensive outfield.
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Maddon values defense a lot in the playoffs and that is why Baez starts at 2B.
Almora is better vs lefties and why he got more time against the Dodgers and Gio.
Happ vs Scherzer and Strasberg would have been a K fest.
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So what's different this year? Should we expect Happ to used sparingly again in the postseason?
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It depends.
How healthy is Zobrist? Can Heyward hit? What is Almora on offense? Is Happ more consistent in CF? Is Happ striking out 30% of the time? What is Schwarber vs lefties?
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Those all sound like excuses to me. Maybe it was just a combination of his being a rookie and too many guys for too few spots, but there were definitely times when Happ could have been utlilized.
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Monthly OPS type splits don't show Sept/Oct to be out of line for Happ (.824 OPS). But my qualitative recall is that he seemed to be slumping a bit towards the back half of September. His highest K-rate month, the only month where >40% of his AB were K's. His post-season inactivity probably reflects that at the time, Maddon didn't prefer his contact-challenged bat above better fielders (Almora, Baez, Heyward) more veteran contact hitters (Jay, Zobrist) or other boom-or-bust bats (Scwarber, Baez).
Will be interesting to see how Happ does this year. Defensively in the outfield, he might be a little more experienced and a little more polished? Will he progress enough so that he's preferred to Scwarber and La Stella and interchangeable with Zobrist and Almora?
Hitting-wise,
*he's been a huge-K guy past,
*with no statistical proof my recall is that he's been very much hot-or-cold streaky. (Minors as well as majors).
*Big-time power. As with any power-guy, the HR's can come in clusters. And sometimes the bat runs into the ball, most times it doesn't.
Probably that's just what he'll always be, more or less.
But if he could make some modest improvements, perhaps reduce the K's somewhat, get a little better at extending the hot streaks and shortening the slumps, that could help. The guy had an .842 OPS last year; that's really good. .328 OBP isn't that good but certainly isn't awful, and >.500 slugging is fabulous. *IF* he can sustain that level of production, or better yet can improve it incrementally, a >.840-OPS guy is super valuable.
Of course, it took a hefty .322 BABIP to support his modest .253 batting average last year. Wouldn't be at all surprising if his average dropped into the .230's or so. Or less. Maybe opposing pitchers and scouts will have better game-plan against him, and it will be harder to keep the HR-rate so high. Happ's season was much like Schwarber's rookie year, better by a couple of OPS and BA points. It really wouldn't shock me if Happ had the kind of low-average slump-season that Schwarber experienced this year.
Part of the fun of the young players, who knows how a new season would go. But it would sure be super-huge if he established as a sustainable .820-920 OPS guy who could sustainably slug .500 and keep his average north of .250. Huge wildcard for how this season will play.
Postseason, who can guess who's hot and who's hurt? Jay will be gone, and Happ will have another season's-worth of opportunity to demonstrate whether or not he's clearly a superior hitter than Zobrist. Same relative to Schwarber.
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I love that we're already thinking the post-season lineup, and it doesn't really seem like a batshit crazy thing to do. Such an incredibly different place from back when all we had to be excited about was the Iowa Four. Or was it five?
Ricketts ownership has been nothing short of tremendous.
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During the broadcast yesterday the only 3 Maddon mentioned for leadoff was Happ,Almora,or Zobrist.
He also said he liked pop at the top of the order and seemed to hint towards Happ.
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Thanks, Dusty. INteresting.
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During the broadcast yesterday the only 3 Maddon mentioned for leadoff was Happ,Almora,or Zobrist.
I was looking forward to that interview but the MLB network thought it would be good to skip that half inning in the best interest of time. Stupid.
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During the broadcast yesterday the only 3 Maddon mentioned for leadoff was Happ,Almora,or Zobrist.
The chances that Ben Zobrist may have to start the season on the DL are looking more likely.
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/2/28/17060780/ben-zobrist-opening-day-roster-spot
This is turning out to be one of those cases where resting over the winter may have not been the right choice for him.
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@ESPNChiCubs 1h1 hour ago
Bryant won't play for a day or two to build some strength back up after being sick. Zobrist a few days away as well. Maybe even into next week for him.
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Several beat reporters have said on Twitter that Joe has set the rotation as Lester-Hendricks-Darvish-Quintana-Chatwood to start the year. So he has the top 4 in reverse order of how good I expect them to be this year.
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It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Zobrist is getting close to the end of the road.
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Agreed but Zobrist should still be a useful bench player.
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If his OPS is in the low-700 range he's marginally useful at best, even as a bench player. He can't really play SS or CF anymore - he's basically a (below average) 2B or LF. His value really comes down to his offense rebounding, at least a little.
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Last year there were 190 players with an OPS above .700 and 400 PA. That seems a little far fetched to say he's marginally useful. His UZR/150 was 8.5 at 2B last year, just because he isn't Baez doesn't mean he's bad.
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Jesse Rogers with some interesting tidbits on how the Cubs signed Yu Darvish. Darvish keeps coming across as a thoughtful, funny, and likeable guy.
http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46470/how-yu-darvish-went-from-having-the-cubs-on-his-no-trade-list-to-pitching-for-them
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Darvish is missing his start today due illness.
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Malingerer!
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What a bust signing that was! Has he been cut yet?
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https://theathletic.com/257365/2018/02/28/after-first-spring-start-kyle-hendricks-is-confident-2017-struggles-are-behind-him/
Athletic pay site.
Says Hendricks was consistently hitting 87 in his opening exhibition game. Suggests that the lost velocity last year was mechanics, not an arm that's worn out and in decline. Pretty interesting article, I think.
Says he throws a lot more than most guys, and because he knew his mechanics were off, that he was throwing a ton between starts, trying to get it back and lock in. Which he thinks led to the injury.
Kind of awesome that a guy can post a 3.03-ERA season and have himself and everybody else viewing it as an off-year.
He says he's going to limit his between-starts throwing somewhat this year. But also says he thinks maybe the "rest" notion after the WS wasn't the best, in his case. So he's done a lot more work off-season. Hope it all works out for him.
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If you believe in advanced stats that 3.03 ERA was pretty much a mirage. Whatever the reason for the velocity drop, it was clear in Hendricks' splits from the first and second half that it made a huge difference. He's not a guy that can afford to lose 2 MPH.
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His soft contact can allow for him to out preform his DIPS. At what velocity point he can continue to get soft contact is the real question.
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He was really good 2nd half. And he was really good both halves of 2016. I'm a big optimist, of course, but I'd be inclined to think that when 3 of the last four halves have been really good, that perhaps first-half last year is the outlier? And the predominant three good halves more the normal that could be expected going forward?
We obviously know that Hendricks has limited stuff and needs to be sharp, needs to be able to command and locate the stuff that he does have. When he's off, he's not going to be as effective. I think we've focused on how his reduced velocity related to reduced effectiveness first half. We tend to have a cause-effect view: reduced velocity => reduced effectiveness. Hendricks seems to have a more nuanced view: reduced mechanics efficiency => reduced effectiveness and reduced velocity. IN a sense, the velocity is a manifestation of problem rather than source of problem?
For me as a fan, I'm not sure it matters. If velocity is a diagnostic for mechanical efficiency and game effectiveness, I get the same answer: velocity deterioration will mean deterioration of effectiveness, and is bad, bad, bad.
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Flat-out, there was about a 2 MPH difference on Hendricks' fastball pre and post-all star last year. And the results reflected it. I don't believe it was a coincidence.
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Not that there is a "right" category for this, but "The Cubs have added righty Allen Webster on a minors pact, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). Now 28, Webster was once a highly regarded prospect. But he struggled to a 6.13 ERA in 120 1/3 MLB innings between 2013 and 2015. And he has been knocked around over the past two seasons in stints with Korea’s Samsung Lions and the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate. In his first crack at the game’s highest level, with the Red Sox, Webster showed a 95 mph four-seamer and 94 mph sinker. But he lost two miles per hour on both offerings over the next two seasons. And though he has shown some ability to get swings and misses, control has been a big problem for Webster, who was in the zone on just 40.3% of his pitches in the majors. Here at MLBTR, Webster is perhaps best known for being included in both the August 2012 Dodgers-Red Sox blockbuster and the rather less memorable 2014 Wade Miley swap that sent Webster from Boston to the Diamondbacks."
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MESA, Ariz. -- Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon noticed right away. The Cubs were working on a baserunning drill at spring training when Maddon saw an unfamiliar figure.
It was Kyle Schwarber.
http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=22637669
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From that article:
Stung by a disappointing season, Schwarber stepped up his workouts over the winter, embraced a new diet and lost about 20 pounds
Only 20 pounds? From the pictures I've seen, I would've thought he lost twice that. At least.
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I didn’t know we had this guy. He’s been a pretty darn good Triple-A hitter for a while. Wonder if he might pushing for a job.
Mike Freeman - SS - Cubs
Mike Freeman had a nice afternoon at the dish, going 3-for-3 with an RBI as the Cubs topped the Reds 7-4 in Cactus League action on Saturday.
All three of his hits were singles, including a run-scoring knock off of Luis Castillo that got the Cubs on the board in the second inning. He's now hitting a robust .588 on the spring and even swiped his second base in this one.
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Hell we had him last year too JR.
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Freeman is 30 years old. He has a career MLB OPS+ of 13, yes, 13, in 92 plate appearances over the last two seasons, and a WAR of -0.9 -- that's NEGATIVE 0.9.
In 1666 minor league plate appearances he has an OPS of .799.
Don't hold your breath on him "pushing for a job."
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Hell we had him last year too JR.
Yeah I’m definitely not as on top of things as I used to be, haha.
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Sharma with a story on Kyle Hendricks' new curve ball grip. Could be a really interesting development.
https://theathletic.com/261590/2018/03/05/with-a-new-grip-on-his-curve-even-kyle-hendricks-cant-contain-his-excitement/ (https://theathletic.com/261590/2018/03/05/with-a-new-grip-on-his-curve-even-kyle-hendricks-cant-contain-his-excitement/)
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That's a cool story, Ron. Would be fun.
I think it's interesting to read any of these longer stories with Hendricks (and Hickey).
Hickey makes point about how Hendricks has such "aptitude", that he can pick things up faster.
I think that's a really significant point regarding any pitching prospect. Guys who have good control already, of the fastball in particular, seem so much more able to pick up new stuff. I'm guessing if you have a delivery that you can also repeat with consistency, and that you can already finesse/nuance to cause variation within an existing delivery, that adapting new grip or new variation within that same reproducible delivery is way easier. Plus I imagine that a guy who already has great athletic coordination to locate existing pitches with abnormal consistency, that same athletic coordination can give you an advantage with any new pitch you're using.
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It's fun at times to check late in spring-training TV games and view some of the prospects. Underwood, Maples, De la Cruz, etc. Kind of reminds how many minor leaguers have very good arms, and also have breaking balls that break hard. Seems to me that command and deception is a bigger separator than speed or spin?
I watched an Underwood inning on Friday, maybe? He had a beautiful delivery, very fast, loose arm, just looked like a big-leaguer. But at the same time, fastball seemed iffy command. And it almost looked like just on TV you could see something different with the curve, not sure whether it was arm slot or arm speed or both. Maybe just ignorant fan imagination based on small view, but I wonder whether there isn't something real with that?
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Tommy La Stella likes to park in Theo's space, so the Cubs confiscated all his uniforms and he had to practice in street clothes.
https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/970709066916876288
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I'm not sure La Stella is high enough on the Cubs food chain to be doing that.
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Maybe forcing him to wear street clothes is a strong hint.
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Careful now, if he doesnt get that spot he might retire.
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This article is another data point in the "Bosio wore out his welcome" theory. Though it doesn't mention Bosio by name, it discusses how Quintana had a hard time adjusting to the way Cubs did things. Kind of the same story we've heard with Justin Wilson, Adam Warren, Brett Anderson, and maybe a couple others over the last year or two, though Quintana was able to overcome it much more quickly.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-jose-quintana-consistency-20180301-story.html
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ESPN released their yearly future power rankings yesterday, which rank teams based on their next five years. The Cubs finished at #6.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22646235/yankees-dodgers-top-astros-mlb-future-power-rankings
The top three were the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros...which is reasonable. All three have similarly strong MLB teams and front offices right now (Astros are a little better at the MLB level; Yankees and Dodgers have a little more financial flexibility), and all three have better farm systems.
But numbers 4 and 5 were the Cardinals and Braves, which seems wrong. It's a problem with the methodology--their system puts far too much emphasis on good minor league systems while not accounting for years of control for young MLB players--Cubs rank #19 in future talent (which accounts for 45% of the overall rating). This is a ranking of the next 5 years, and the Cubs' entire position player core will be in place for 4 years (with Contreras, Almora, and Happ being under control for all 5 years). I'd take the Cubs' current major leaguers from 2019-2022 over any farm system in baseball over that same time period.
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Gordon Wittenmyer with a nice piece on Ian Happ and leading off
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/ian-happ-channels-dexter-fowler-in-spring-prep-for-role-in-cubs-leadoff-rotation/
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March 2 view of Wrigley - Opening night is April 5
(http://c-7npsfqifvt34x24x78x78x78x2euscjnhx2edpn.g00.chicagotribune.com/g00/3_c-7x78x78x78.dijdbhpusjcvof.dpn_/c-7NPSFQIFVT34x24iuuqx3ax2fx2fx78x78x78.uscjnh.dpnx2fjnh-6bb1634bx2fuvscjofx2fdij-du-x78sjhmfz-sfopwbujpot-kbnft14-du1175395785-31291418x2f061x2f061y645x3fj21d.nbslx3djnbhf_$/$/$/$/$/$)
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What the heck are they doing?
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Executive parking in the infield. Very expensive. Ground rule double if the ball ricochets off a BMW.
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I thought it had to bounce into the drivers side window?
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The Cubs seem to have a number of options for the bottom of the pen. I think Grimm's job is in serious jeopardy.
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Shame if Simmons is hurt, though - I had hopes for him.
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I know spring training records don't mean a thing, but I'd rather win most than lose most. The Cubs have a different look about them this year. It would be fun for them to mow down the competition again like 2016.
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Theo's parking spot this morning
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DX2t7zKVAAIlyt7.jpg)
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This is a whole lot of awesome.
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Uh oh, I think the Astros are starting to get a little too big for their britches over there. Looks like we have some bulletin board material if there's a Cubs-Astros World Series this year.
Now that the Houston Astros are starting the defense of their first World Series title, the question will be whether the team suffers a hangover from its remarkable run.
But staff ace Dallas Keuchel said he does not expect a dip in the Astros' form in a declaration that might ruffle a few feathers at Wrigley Field.
"We're not the Cubs," Keuchel told The Washington Post when asked about the Chicago Cubs' returning almost the same team from their 2016 championship and winning 11 fewer games. "I firmly believe we have better players."
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22696651/dallas-keuchel-houston-astros-says-team-suffer-world-series-hangover-not-chicago-cubs
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Yeah, guys should avoid those bulletin board quotes. Most come back to haunt you.
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Especially when the Cubs have been in the NLCS for 3 straight years with a WS title. The Astros on the other hand have lost a wild card game, missed the playoffs and won a World Series.
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First round of spring cuts:
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat
#Cubs send Ps Alzolay, Underwood and De La Cruz to AA Tenn. NRI players to minors are Baldonado, Brooks, Camarena, Garner, Hatch, Roth, Burks, Rademacher, Rice, Vosler
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La Stella now put a bouncy castle in Theo's parking space. This is good shi t.
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Baldonado is 5-2-0-0-0-7
They couldn't hang on to him a bit longer?
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Baldonado is 5-2-0-0-0-7
They couldn't hang on to him a bit longer?
There are some split-squad games coming up so there's a decent chance we'll still see him.
Reminder: With DST starting early Sunday morning, the time difference between Mesa and Chicago goes to two hours.
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MDGonzales 15m15 minutes ago
Cubs name former outfielder Chris Denorfia as Special Assistant to the President/General Manager and Matt Murton as Baseball Operations Assistant.
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Pedro Strop has yet to make a spring training appearance due to a strained left calf. The Cubs open the season in Miami in just 20 days.
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RHP Pedro Strop sent home after flu-like symptoms, calf feels fine; C Taylor Davis (concussion) performing light work
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Arizona Phil: "Lester FB velo was 87-89 - T 90, and that's exactly where he has been all spring."
Will be interesting to see whether that's just where he's going to work at this stage of his career. Or whether he's just trying to take it easy in camp, and will bump it up 1-3 mph when the games start.
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@MDGonzales 18m18 minutes ago
Cubs signed seven players: Baez (657K), Montgomery (611,250), Schwarber and Contreras (604,500), Edwards (594), Almora Jr. (584,500), Happ (renewal at 570K). 14 others agree to terms.
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Arizona Phil: "Lester FB velo was 87-89 - T 90, and that's exactly where he has been all spring."
Will be interesting to see whether that's just where he's going to work at this stage of his career. Or whether he's just trying to take it easy in camp, and will bump it up 1-3 mph when the games start.
Lester at 87-89 is a fifth starter. Hopefully just easing into the routine.
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Lester gets less love than Hendricks around here.
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In my opinion, over the length of Lester's contract, Hendricks will be more effective and valuable than Lester. That doesn't make Lester bad. It just makes Hendricks better.
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It's a blessing (and an enormous change from so many years in the past) to have four pitchers about whom it can be reasonably argued that at least two or three (if not four) could be the top pitcher in a championship level team.
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It's a blessing (and an enormous change from so many years in the past) to have four pitchers about whom it can be reasonably argued that at least two or three (if not four) could be the top pitcher in a championship level team.
Hendricks, Darvish and Quintana are all good enough no one should be surprised to see any, or all, of them in strong contention for the Cy Young this year.
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Which one will start the AS game?
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Probably Sherzer or Kershaw.
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I predict Hendricks for the AL.
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I'm putting my money on Luis Castillo.
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Ill say Lester.
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Chatwood
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-mike-montgomery-delivery-20180312-story.html
Spring training is great. Montgomery has adjusted his delivery, and it might help is control and his curveball.
I love the upbeat spring-training improvement stories.
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http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/jake-arrieta-pens-letter-to-chicago/a9g98lwvem2m14szij3dxehg1
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He's a trader!
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http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/jake-arrieta-pens-letter-to-chicago/a9g98lwvem2m14szij3dxehg1
That reads like a genuine expression of appreciation. Good for him.
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Have they announced what he signed for?
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I thought this article on Yu was interesting:
https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-cubs-became-perfect-fit-over-time/c-268046542
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I thought this article on Yu was interesting:
https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-cubs-became-perfect-fit-over-time/c-268046542
Interesting, indeed. Thanks for sharing.
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More cuts, none of them surprising. I guess cuts are pretty uninteresting this year unless it's Caratini/Gimenez or Grimm.
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs cuts: Alvarez, Mills, Tseng, Bote, Farrell, Mazzoni, Zastryzny optioned;
Hannemann, Young assigned to minor league camp.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 29s29 seconds ago
#Cubs trim 9 from camp. Alvarez, Bote, Farrell, Mazzoni, Mills, Tseng and Zastryzny optioned to Iowa ...
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Interesting article indicating that Yu should try elevating his 4-seamer:
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/yu-darvish-should-use-high-fastball-with-cubs/c-268281900
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 17m17 minutes ago
The grounds crew is expected to begin laying the field next week at Wrigley. #Cubs
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 18m18 minutes ago
Hey @WrigleyAerials, they'll be removing the tarps soon at Wrigley so you can see what's going on. Dugouts are being moved 28 feet down the lines to accomodate camera wells. #Cubs
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19m19 minutes ago
#Cubs Crane Kenney says Wrigley Field renovations are on schedule and the ballpark will be ready for Opening Day
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYMsxiZVQAAgDRX.jpg:small)
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Tyler Chatwood struck out nine over five innings on Tuesday night, and Maddon said part of the reason was that the right-hander has benefited from working with pitching coach Jim Hickey and coach Mike Borzello regarding strategy.
"First of all, he's got a good arm," Maddon said. "Second of all, they've gotten together, him and 'Borz' and 'Hicks' about strategy, and he took it into the game last night. I know he was very pleased and so were we. There's a couple little added wrinkles, and new thoughts to play with."
Hickey and Borzello aren't focusing on Chatwood's delivery as much as his thought process.
"It goes beyond mechanics and grips," Maddon said. "It's like a hitter. I'm so into the coaches who can coach approach. That's more difficult because that's the mental side."
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Chatwood evidently was tied last year for the 5th highest 4-seamer spin rate amongst MLB starters (behind Verlander, Scherzer, Darvish, and Gray).
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People sleeping on Chatwood....
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What's the over/under on Chatwood W's this season?
Let's go 12.5
I'll take the over.
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Justin Grimm has been released.
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Keeping Eddie Butler?
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What's the over/under on Chatwood W's this season?
Let's go 12.5
I'll take the over.
Wins? That's a lotto ticket. I guess I'd take the over, but I'm more thinking in terms of FIP, XFIP and WAR he'll be no worse then 3rd among the starters. I know that'd be an upset, but I like the odds.
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Justin Grimm has been released.
Well we apparently now have 13 pitchers better than Grimm, which I think should make craig really happy.
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More correctly, we saved 2 million dollars by betting someone else could be our 13th best pitcher.
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Anybody heard from Holland lately.
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It gives Grimm a chance to get another job, which I'm sure he will. Most teams don't have 13 pitchers better than Grimm.
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Greg Holland makes our bullpen lethal.
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Anybody heard from Holland lately.
I thought that was Deeg's job to keep tabs on the free agent pitchers we might want to sign.
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Greg Holland makes our bullpen lethal.
Only if they can somehow travel through time and bring back Greg Holland from 2012-14. Cubs don't need him--payroll flexibility for mid-season is more important.
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I thought that was Deeg's job to keep tabs on the free agent pitchers we might want to sign.
Only Nihonjin.
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Justin Grimm has been released.
Well we apparently now have 13 pitchers better than Grimm, which I think should make craig really happy.
Wow, interesting. Back when he was new and pitching for Renteria, I think we all had very high hopes for him.
Keeping Eddie Butler?
Would see so. Butler has been fine, 6 innings with 4K/2BB small sample. Process of elimination, he's the only man left standing.
I'd hoped "competition" would bring out the best and somebody would step up this spring. Grimm would have some solid bounce-back, or Hickey/Borzello/Hottovy would figure out some adjustment to fix him. Or, Maples would be throwing 98 with a wipeout slider and dominating. Or Simmons would be a fun camp story. But Simmons hurt, Grimm bad, and Maples worse.
Butler's the only one who hasn't tipped over. (Yet). Would love to see him emerge, have his stuff step up a little bit in relief, throw a little harder, and have a little more consistency. Doesn't need to be a big key-guy to pitch the 6th inning 2-3 times a week. And to do it without being at walk-the-world risk would be nice.
It gives Grimm a chance to get another job, which I'm sure he will. Most teams don't have 13 pitchers better than Grimm.
Will be interesting to see who signs him, and how well he does. (Or, in the event nobody does sign him, whether he opts for Iowa, or chooses to go AAA with somebody else.)
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Butler might turn out to be useful to us this season.
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I wonder if Kyle Ryan might be useful in the pen.
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Theo was talking up Rosario on the radio, but with Montgomery, Wilson and Duensing already here it makes the t hard for lefties.
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The Cubs could still sign Grimm to a minor league contract. This gives him the opportunity to sign with someone else, if they will have him.
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Sharma is speculating that Anthony Bass might be the last guy in the pen.
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Seems fishy to me.
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Seems fishy to me.
Shot across the bow, P2.
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Sharma is speculating that Anthony Bass might be the last guy in the pen.
https://theathletic.com/275457/2018/03/15/after-the-release-of-justin-grimm-a-new-leader-emerges-for-final-spot-in-cubs-bullpen/
Sharma notes Butler's low swing-and-miss and low K-rates, notes that none of those improved with Cubs, and there hasn't been any talk of anything "new and improved" this spring. We'll see.
He says that Bass thinks he has new ideas from Cubs, and also learned stuff in Japan 2015. His Japan numbers were very mediocre, I think. (ERA, K/BB....). K/BB looked better last year in PCL; don't know Round Rock, whether 4.15 ERA is basically mediocre, or is pretty good relative to the stadium and PCL?
Bass sounds like a fairly calm guy, and his minor-league walk rate is good. So maybe he'd be a serviceable 6th-inning strike-thrower. Maybe average stuff, but some consistency of being able to throw strikes might be refreshing.
Butler is out of options on big-league contract; Bass is minor-league contract. All else equal, would seem to make sense to keep Butler, and send Bass to minors, and keep control of both. If Butle does well, you'll be glad; if he doesn't, can call up Bass when you want later.
Obviously other options.
Strop may complicate things, if he's not ready for opening day. With Maples terrible, if you need to keep both Butler and another non-roster guy, then when STrop comes back you'd need to expose one of those two guys to waivers. Would really be nice someday to have some decent yo-yo guys with options.
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Unless the Cubs are convinced that there is no reasonable upside to Butler, they should keep him until he proves he can't do the job. If Strop has to go on the DL, they should replace him with someone that has options left. The 13th man on the staff isn't going to be all that important for the first couple of weeks, and I don't see any purpose in losing someone to waivers unnecessarily at this point.
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I had high hopes for Simmons, but 5 walks in 3.2 innings obviously isn’t turning any heads.
The Strop saga does illustrate that from the right side, the pen still looks fairly thin. One more injury and you’d be in crisis mode.
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Without Strop the Cubs still have Marrow, Chisek and Edwards from the right side and Wilson is looking better this spring so he might be the eighth inning guy anyway.
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Two RH setup guys and a closer is thin. And like I said, one injury away from a crisis.
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How many bullpens have more than a closer, more than 3 right handed set up guys plus a lefty that can be an eighth inning/closer pitcher? The Yankees?
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I watched or listened to two Wilson outings. Early camp so means little, but he still seemed to labor to get past the minor-league roster-fill guys he was facing. Didn't look sharp in the one inning I partially watched, and didn't sound sharp on the radio inning I heard.
I'm still hesitant to assume he's going to be good, or consistent/trust-worthy.
I was a little disappointed in the impression I got, actually. When a proven veteran whose role is totally defined uses camp to work himself into shape, I get that. But for a guy who finished terrible and who has much to prove, I'd have thought he'd if anything be more likely to be psyched up to impress, and perhaps have worked off-season to position himself to impress and win trust, both for manager, new pitching coach, and for his own internal psyche.
Sure hope he emerges as a high-end 8th-inning/closer guy. But won't totally surprise if he continues to have challenges with command and with consistency.
HOpe I'm being paranoid, and that he emerges as just a quality-stuff quality-reliever who has a really effective year.
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Right now we're looking at two roster fill arms in the big league pen if Strop can't go, and that assumes Wilson has de-suckified and Duensing hasn't turned back into a pumpkin. One more guy goes down and it's at least three roster fill guys. I can think of a lot of teams that can do a lot better than that, so yes - it's a concern. This team doesn't have a lot of them but bullpen depth is a big one.
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He’s been a high leverage pitcher before and he only has 1 BB in 5 IP this spring. That is the big thing I’m looking at.
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Holland?
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I'll give it to Dusty, he's consistent.
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Or Greg Holland's brother-in-law.
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He just seems there for the taking and we have the money.
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https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/03/16/statcast-sets-lesters-baseline-suggests-hes-working-changeup/
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ESPNChiCubs 25m25 minutes ago
Cubs send out Maples and Zagunis. To minor league camp
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https://theathletic.com/276963/2018/03/16/whos-in-whos-out-thoughts-on-a-cubs-bullpen-that-could-be-as-good-as-anyone/
"Anthony Bass ....felt something while throwing live batting practice on Friday – Maddon forgot what the issue was but insisted “he’s still in the mix.”"
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Jesse Rogers
Eddie Butler, Randy Rosario, A. Bass, Hancock all are in the mix for final bullpen spot. Butler may have edge based on no options and Maddon said they wanted more than 1 long man
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Wilson has blister, Maddon said he'd be ready by opener.
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Tseng 3-0-0-0-0-4 in minor-league game.
Question: For the non-roster guys, does anybody know whether any or several of them have options left? Bass, Rosario, Hancock, Alvarez, that other big lefty from the Mets system?
I usually assume that non-roster FA's will usually have no options left, especially old guys like Bass. But Simmons did, and surely the Cubs were mindful of the advantage of being able to yo-yo Iowa depth; so maybe one or some of these guys do?
I think of this in the context of Strop, Wilson, and Bass being variably hurt. Suppose Strop is a little behind and for sake of caution and getting him synced, caution says you'd prefer to give him an extra 5-7 days in Mesa. But it's not like he's hurt or couldn't throw the ball. Options might include:
1. Keep him on roster, and gamble that he'll be sharp enough or that he won't be needed for first week anyway.
2. Activate the best of your non-roster guys instead, even if he's got no options; then after 5 days and hopefully no appearances expose him to waivers and risk losing him.
3. Activate the best of your options yo-yo guys, so you don't have to risk losing anybody. Even if that isn't the guy you'd otherwise consider most suitable.
4. If you limit to an options guy, thus the question: Does that limit you to Maples, Underwood, Tseng, or Simmons? That's not an ideal pool. Or are some of the FA non-rosters available, too?
5. If they are limited to Maples, Underwood, Tseng, and Simmons, (and assuming Simmons's shoulder is shot), I almost wonder whether Tseng might make more sense?
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Craig, Alvarez and Rosario are on the 40-man roster and both have options remaining.
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Thanks, Jeff. Good that they'v got options. Rosario has a big-league arm, so that's nice that they've got some flex there. Obviously Twins new his arm/velocity were big-league; they must have given up on him ever having big-league control/command?
Both being lefties, not sure Rosario/Torres will be ideal yo-yo's at this point.
40-man isn't an issue, of course, since Cubs have an open spot.
Q's:
1. Is it possible to find potential options status for non-rosters?
2. Would Hancock in particular have any options?
3. I'm assuming Bass not....
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Craig, I've never been able to locate a resource for options status for players not on a 40-man roster.
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Craig, this article states that Hancock was left off the Padres 40-man roster in November of 2015.
Since he's never played in the majors, it seems likely that he has at least one option remaining. Probably more.
https://www.gaslampball.com/2015/11/20/9772544/padres-round-out-initial-40-man-roster
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As far as catching goes, it's either Gimenez as Darvish's caddy or Caratini as true backup? Both can be sent down, right? Caratini has options and Gimenez is on a minor league contract.
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I think it's Gimenez no matter what, and Caratini goes to AAA. My impression is that there is still some concern about Caratini's ability to catch and they want him playing regularly.
Plus, if Caratini goes down and rakes at AAA, it only helps his trade value; playing once or twice a week in the majors doesn't help. I think that's ultimately how the Cubs get value out of him.
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I agree with BR, think Caratini goes down and plays.
Not sure I agree with "getting value" by trading him, though. That's a possible way, for sure. But, not sure he's going to build up such strong trade value that he'll bring in a big haul; or that his value/career will be wasted to be a backup.
I think backup C is a pretty big job. Last year willson played 117 games and 377 AB. Yes, he had a significant injury, so he may get more AB this year.
But I think catcher is just such a grueling and high-injury position, and requires so much rest and stuff, that you really don't want to use primary C more than 120 games ideally, and assuming he's going to get minor injuries even if he doesn't have a major one, often less.
So I think a backup catcher can easily be projected to start ≥40 games, and to approach or exceed 200 AB. I'm not sure Caratini would be wasted or under-utilized if he had a controlled-years career as a 40-start/200AB backup. And I'm not sure he's likely to become so good of an all-around guy that other teams will be overpaying to get him as their primary catcher.
I wonder whether at some point this year, if he is hitting, they may want him up to replace Gimenez. I know we scored a bunch of runs last year, and the premise is that post-hangover the offense might be better. But I am somewhat nervous that the offense may continue to have some of the same challenges that it's had the last three post-seasons and during a lot of in-season games too. Offensively challenged.
*Happ is often a slumpy K-guy, likely a low-average hitter.
*Heyward might improve, but his swing looks as bad as ever. He may remain one of the worst-hitting outfielders in mlb.
*Russell is a low-average, low-OBP hitter.
*Schwarber is a low-average, streaky hitter.
*Gimenez, will be bad hitter when he plays.
*Zobrist, not sure what he'll be with Father Time ticking.
*Almora, unsure what he'll be, particularly against RHP.
*Baez, streaky, low-OBP, and presumably will often go through stretches where he looks helpless.
I think there's possibility of a lot of spells during the season and post-season when the offense may struggle. There may be a point where having Caratini, if he looks like a competitive OBP guy, might be a welcome upgrade over Gimenez? Might be looking for every and any way to supplement the offense, sometimes at the expense of defense?
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craig - I'm not certain Schwarber will be a "low-average, streaky hitter." I think it's possible that the front office confidence that he will hit well for average without losing power will prove to be correct. After last season, it's hard to remember this, but there used to be a view that Schwarber could be the best or second best overall hitter on the team.
We'll see, I guess.
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yeah, we'll see. Baseball is a hard-to-predict game, so who knows? Lots of things are possible.
With any young player, it's totally reasonable to think they might improve, and to hope so. Could easily happen for any of Schwarber, Russell, or Happ.
Maybe a semantics thing. I consider <.250 to be relatively low average. Happ hit .253. Russell and Schwarber are 4th-year guys, and neither have posted a .250-season yet. Any and hopefull all three of Happ, Russell, and Schwarber might improve enough to hit north of .250, and I'd love it if a couple of them improved and ended north of .270.
Who knows? It's baseball. Heh heh, if Schwarber, Russell, and Happ are all north of .250 with a couple of them reaching .270, it's going to be a really good year!
But neither is it implausible that all three will be sub-.250 guys. In which case Maddon might want to avoid auto-outs at other spots in the lineup, so might perhaps prefer Caratini to Gimenez. Even if Caratini isn't quite the clubhouse guy or the defensive professional that Gimenez will be. Theo and Madden have often talked about wanting a "relentless" offense that's constantly putting pressure on pitchers.
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Schwarber never had a BA below .323 in the minors. He got to the majors early because he was such a dominating hitter in the minors.
No one would dispute that he under-performed last season. 2015 was his first year in MLB, he was injured virtually all of 2016,. And I believe it is generally believed that he overt emphasized power in 2017, to the detriment of his average and OPS.
It seems reasonable to believe, as the front office reportedly does, that his minor league version is closer to the Schwarber we will see in the future.
I am sure they will be very disappointed if he turns out to be a .250 hitter.
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I will be. Although I would give him a couple of more years slack. Most players don't hit their peak until about 26 - 28.
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Schwarber posted a .782 OPS last season with a .211 batting average.
I think Cubs leadership will be thrilled if he can maintain a .250 batting average.
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Yup. If he emerges as a .270 hitter, I think everybody will be thrilled.
In one of the camp games, he tried a failed foul bunt off the 3rd base line. Heh heh, with his newfound speed and agility, I'd think he could perhaps pick up a lot of easy singles doing that against the shift.
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Strop threw 16 of 18 pitches for strikes in modified minor league game Vs. A’s minor leaguers.
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Strop is evidently scheduled to pitch in a Cactus League game on Thursday.
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So far (hopefully, this will not jinx it) this has been a pretty good spring training for the Cubs. There have been no serious injuries, and no one is unexpectedly having a horrible spring, and some, like Schwarber and Happ, look to be pretty well improved.
By the way, looking at last nights game, it looks as if Soler has lost almost as much weight as Schwarber has, and might be making a strong come back this year.
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Lester pitched into the 7th last night, 6.2. When's the last time a Cub pitched into the 7th in a spring-training game? Maybe they do it every spring and I don't remember because it's spring training; but wouldn't surprise me if it's been 20 years. Obviously had a pitch-count target, and it took that long to reach. Probably just coincidence, had a lot of contact and quick outs, DP's, etc. This was Lester's "Stretch" game, so they'll back him off on his next/last outing.
I wonder if their is any difference in the pitch count vs past? Maybe Hickey has it 5/10 pitches higher than Bosio? Or maybe after slow start last year, Maddon wanted to elevate the pitch counts a little more aggressively, and bumped the "stretch" game to 90 instead of 80?
The Cubs did a lot of nibbling last year, both relief and rotation, and Hickey did come in talking aggression and strikes. I wonder if Lester and others will be somewhat more aggressive and throw a few more strikes, hoping that the defense can catch contact, even if K's decline?
Things can change really fast once the games count and lineups start big-league starters, so maybe nothing in camp means anything for the season.
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The Cubs may be softening on starting the season with an 8 man bullpen. If they go with 7 relievers, it might open a spot for Bourjos. If they go with 8 relievers, they'll probably be choosing among Butler, Rosario, and Hancock for the 8th spot.
https://theathletic.com/280866/2018/03/19/where-things-stand-with-decision-time-fast-approaching-at-cubs-camp/
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I know of a better reliever who's available.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-schwarber-impressing-in-spring-training/c-269136388
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Spring training optimism of the Schwarber variety:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-kyle-schwarber-optimism-20180320-story.html
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Fangraphs with their strength of schedule article (bottom line--Cubs benefit more than any team in MLB but the Nationals based on their strength of schedule):
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-the-projected-2018-strengths-of-schedule/
Playoff odds that take the strength of schedule into account (Cubs projected to win 96 games with a 79% chance to win the division (Yankees are the only projected division winner with a tougher second place team), but a 13% chance to win the World Series (second best of any team behind the Astros (25.5%, which seems impossible)).
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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Cubs lost Dario Alvarez on waivers to the Mariners. Kinda odd they exposed him to waivers since he an option and didn’t need the 40 man space with the 40 man at 38. Assuming Gimenez is the back up the only way they’d need another spot is if they are going to add Hancock. That would mean losing Butler unless somebody is starting on the DL.
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The SunTimes supposes that Butler might be moved to long relief.
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Cubs lost Dario Alvarez on waivers to the Mariners. Kinda odd they exposed him to waivers since he an option and didn’t need the 40 man space with the 40 man at 38. Assuming Gimenez is the back up the only way they’d need another spot is if they are going to add Hancock. That would mean losing Butler unless somebody is starting on the DL.
Curious. Perhaps it relates to nothing with anybody else, and just reflects that they weren't impressed with Alvarez?
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Maybe, but I don’t think keeping him at AAA would have cost the Cubs anything.
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The SunTimes supposes that Butler might be moved to long relief.
That makes sense to me. I'd think he's got a chance to be able to pitch > 1 inning. And perhaps also a shot that with short relief, that he'll throw harder and be better.
But he doesn't seem to necessarily have the mental strength to be consistent or resilient; maybe they're ready to let him go, too?
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http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46500/welcome-to-kyle-schwarbers-comeback-season
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Schwarber being a stud hitter would be such a difference maker. Hope it keeps up, that would be super awesome.
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Schwarber physical comparison:
https://twitter.com/realcubsinsider/status/976846246160879617
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http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-talk-podcast-jed-hoyer-breaks-down-cubs-renovated-pitching-staff
I enjoy hearing Hoyer talk about their thinking. He mentioned:
1. Wanting to add some power, Darvish and Chatwood throwing a little harder.
2. Talked about bullpen, and wanting to throw strikes. Viewed Cishek and Duensing as strikes guys. Said he thought the relievers got tired, and that was a factor on late wildness. Also said they just need to execute better. Noted that everybody, Wade Davis included, had elevated walk-rates relative to previous norms. Seemed to advocate being more aggressive in the strike zone, rather give up a hit than a walk, let other guys beat you rather than beating yourself.
The walk thing was addressed specifically to bullpen, but I thought it interesting that his first comment was that they were tired. I still think that relates to the rotation. Yes, Jed and Theo want relievers to be a little more aggressive in strike zone, but I don't think you can blame tiredness, with an 8-man pen, without factoring in the rotation. Maybe Lester and Quintana need to be a little more aggressive in the zone too, so they don't leave os many innings to the relievers?
He also emphasized fast start, the gravitational pull of .500. If you start fast, isn't sense of frustration, and if you pull away you can rest guys down stretch. Certainly trust that even with the great 2nd half, some of those September series with Milwaukee and Cardinals, Maddon was really working Edwards especially, and Davis. I agree that pulling out strong early is really good psychologically. Fans too.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-opening-day-roster-eddie-butler-20180323-story.html
Maddon says they'll carry 8 relievers. Roster will be announced tomorrow sometime.
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Rosario sent down.
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He also emphasized fast start, the gravitational pull of .500. If you start fast, isn't sense of frustration, and if you pull away you can rest guys down stretch. Certainly trust that even with the great 2nd half, some of those September series with Milwaukee and Cardinals, Maddon was really working Edwards especially, and Davis. I agree that pulling out strong early is really good psychologically. Fans too.
I have always been a big fan of the pull out strong early game. Served me well in college and young adulthood.
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Cubs are releasing Peter Bourjos to give him a chance to find an MLB job.
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Thats the only way Jayhawk but I can think of two times off the top of my head that it didnt work for me.
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The LaStella video they played on the LF scoreboard during the game was amazing.
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What'd they show over there? All the weird crap he put in Theo's parking spot this spring?
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Bleacher Nation has the La Stella video:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/03/23/good-luck-in-iowa-the-front-office-pranks-la-stella-on-the-video-board/
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Awesome.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 9m9 minutes ago
Surprise roster decision: Caratini chosen over veteran Gimenez for backup catcher job. Gimenez to Iowa. For now.
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Scenes from two blocks away from my new home base:
(http://lostinanime.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/IMG_1911-e1521935631363.jpg)
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That's a big surprise. Everything I've read on Caratini is that his bat is MLB ready, but his defense could still use some work. It seems like they would want to give him regular playing time behind the plate. Maybe Contreras will be in the outfield more than we expect.
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Scenes from two blocks away from my new home base:
(http://lostinanime.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/IMG_1911-e1521935631363.jpg)
Interesting. Where is this?
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Kobe. Yu was born in Osaka (about 20 minutes by train) and lived in Kobe for a long time.
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Kobe. Yu was born in Osaka (about 20 minutes by train) and lived in Kobe for a long time.
I knew you had a passion for Japan. What enabled you to actually move there? Congratulations.
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I knew you had a passion for Japan. What enabled you to actually move there? Congratulations.
I actually lived in Tokyo for a couple of years a few years ago, and I've been jonesing to move back ever since. With a lot of encouragement from friends including our very own Tuffy, finally decided to take the plunge.
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deeg, I thought it interesting that the lettering is in English. Is that very common in Japan?
Also, you may want to talk to the curator and have the picture in Rangers uniform replaced with Cubs!
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deeg, I thought it interesting that the lettering is in English. Is that very common in Japan?
Also, you may want to talk to the curator and have the picture in Rangers uniform replaced with Cubs!
I'll get right on that.
Roman lettering is fairly common on signs in Japan, though it is sort of surprising that none of the signage is also in Japanese.
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Curator? He don't need no stinking Curator. The sign is outside, and I doubt that it is open 24 hours per day. All he needs is a can of blue paint, one of red paint, and a dark night.
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https://theathletic.com/285123/2018/03/26/with-a-refined-swing-and-lighter-build-ian-happs-monster-spring-is-no-accident/
Interesting to hear some of the swing/stance analysis, and some adjustments made. Happ seems like a very smart, professional guy. Hope a lot of the adjustments work.
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Cubs derostered RHP Cory Mazzoni and lost him on waivers to the Dodgers.
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
The Athletic has learned that Pedro Strop will start the season with the team, no need for a DL stint. Eddie Butler gets the nod over Bass, Hancock and others for the final spot in the Cubs bullpen.
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I'm assuming Butler is the long reliever? I suppose he could be effective for 3-4 inning stints occasionally.
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LF Schwarber
CF Happ
RF Heyward
3B Bryant
SS Russell
2B Baez
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
OF Almora
IF La Stella
UT Zobrist
C Caratini
SP Lester
SP Hendricks
SP Darvish
SP Quintana
SP Chatwood
RP Montgomery
RP Duensing
RP Wilson
RP Butler
RP Strop
RP Cishek
RP Edwards
RP Morrow
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Depth chart
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=chc
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NBC Sports Chicago announces its 2018 Cubs season-long, multi-platform coverage details
Good news:
NEW THIS SEASON: Former Cubs standout centerfielder/veteran baseball analyst & author DOUG GLANVILLE will be joining the network as its primary contributor to the network’s digital platforms providing fans with expert Cubs/MLB commentary on NBCSportsChicago.com/Cubs via written columns, video essays, along with regular appearances on the popular “CubsTalk Podcast.” In addition, Glanville will be a regular game night panelist throughout the season on SportsTalk Live.
More good news: Kelly Crull is back
http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/nbc-sports-chicago-announces-its-2018-cubs-season-long-multi-platform-coverage-details
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Shwarma on Kyle Schwarber (and Chili Davis), including this Schwarber quote.
“I believe in myself as that kind of hitter,” Schwarber said. “I don’t think I’m an all-or-nothing guy who’ll hit .240 with a bunch of homers. I want to hit and I don’t want to strike out too much. These are things that I’m working on, trying to make second nature and not something I need to think about. It’s not just my body, I’m working on other things too.”
https://theathletic.com/290787/2018/03/28/what-kind-of-hitter-does-kyle-schwarber-want-to-be/
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Doug Glanville with a 'must read' essay on team chemistry and his first spring training with the Cubs
I tried to select a good paragraph to copy but wasn't able to as they all are meaningful
https://twitter.com/dougglanville?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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Shwarma on Kyle Schwarber (and Chili Davis), including this Schwarber quote.
“I believe in myself as that kind of hitter,” Schwarber said. “I don’t think I’m an all-or-nothing guy who’ll hit .240 with a bunch of homers. I want to hit and I don’t want to strike out too much. These are things that I’m working on, trying to make second nature and not something I need to think about. It’s not just my body, I’m working on other things too.”https://theathletic.com/290787/2018/03/28/what-kind-of-hitter-does-kyle-schwarber-want-to-be/
Thanks, Ron. That's really great aspiration, fun to see him thinking that way. So great if he could hit north of .250 or .270.
I've mentioned this before, I think. But would be very cool if he could lay down the bunt with high efficiency against the shift.
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LF Schwarber
CF Happ
RF Heyward
3B Bryant
SS Russell
2B Baez
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
OF Almora
IF La Stella
UT Zobrist
C Caratini
SP Lester
SP Hendricks
SP Darvish
SP Quintana
SP Chatwood
RP Montgomery
RP Duensing
RP Wilson
RP Butler
RP Strop
RP Cishek
RP Edwards
RP Morrow
Fourteen players left from the 2016 World Series roster
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Rumors that the Cubs may have signed Chris Coghlan to a minor league deal.
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He was in pictures hitting off of Chatwood yesterday or someone that looks like him.
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Patrick Mooney
Chris Coghlan has signed a minor-league deal with the #Cubs and started working out at their Arizona complex, as @bleedcubbieblue spotted. Coghlan, a veteran outfielder from the 2016 World Series team, will be in extended spring training.
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Chris Coghlan has signed a minor-league deal with the #Cubs and started working out at their Arizona complex, as @bleedcubbieblue spotted. Coghlan, a veteran outfielder from the 2016 World Series team, will be in extended spring traini
What are you saying there Ron?
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Can you make that bigger?
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where have I heard that before
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Coghlan was so good on the WS parade special that alone merits a minor league deal.
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Not sure I love, or understand, Maddon's handling of his pitchers. Did they sign Morrow to be the closer, but have since found that is arm isn't right, or something? Or did they sign him intending to use him rigidly at the expense of everybody else?
Is his role is going to be so rigid/legalistic that it doesn't make any sense, and they'd rather ruin other guys arms than pitch him in a non-save? Morrow has thrown two pitches thus far, while:
1. Montgomery got thrown out there three games straight. Not good to ever do that, barring most exceptional circumstances. Risky, not advisable for MM's arm health, IMO.
2. Butler got kept in for a really, really long time yesterday, much longer than he'd worked in camp. Not advisable for Butler's arm health, IMO.
Not sure it's fair to the other guys to be perhaps risking their careers while Morrow has thrown 2 pitches.
I can understand having a general concept of babying Morrow and limiting him to save situations to protect his arm, but I think that would better be a general concept under normal pen availability, rather than in special circumstances like this.
Or maybe Morrow has a sore arm, and it's a secret?
Also thought the Darvish usage was excessive. Pushing him beyond 100 pitches, after having extending him so much less than that in camp, seems unwise and risky. Under any circumstances, but then especially when he's shaking his elbow.
O well. Hopefully I'm just paranoid; and hopefully whether the choices were risky or not, the guys will come through healthy and unaffected.
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The Cubs are being strict with how they use Marrow, but he was up and down a lot in game 2 and that is why he wasn’t available. They did the same thing with Davis last year.
The Cubs are hurt because until somebody gets hurt that they can’t send somebody down to Iowa like they did with Grimm to get a fresh reliever except for maybe Edwards.
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I'm thinking that the Cubs' starting pitching in the Miami series has not exactly looked the way anybody expected (except for Hendricks, who has taken the early lead for the Ace of the staff).
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It's a damn good thing Darvish and Quintana age going to be the aces of the 2018 staff.
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I'm thinking that the Cubs' starting pitching in the Miami series has not exactly looked the way anybody expected (except for Hendricks, who has taken the early lead for the Ace of the staff).
I think a lot of people expected Lester to struggle, at least out of the gate. And Darvish was really good for four innings - he just blew up in the fifth. I'm not too worried about the rotation - it's going to be solid. The crappy situational hitting is a bigger worry, especially since that plagued us so badly all last season. But as long ad the bullpen continues to be solid I don't see any reason to think we won't win the division in a walk.
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I think a lot of people expected Lester to struggle, at least out of the gate. And Darvish was really good for four innings - he just blew up in the fifth. I'm not too worried about the rotation - it's going to be solid. The crappy situational hitting is a bigger worry, especially since that plagued us so badly all last season. But as long ad the bullpen continues to be solid I don't see any reason to think we won't win the division in a walk.
Umm. I thought Darvish also gave up 2 runs in the first inning. Granted Schwarber helped the Marlins.
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That was also the only hit he gave up in 4 innings.
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Not a very good turn through the rotation so far. If this happens in the middle of the season nobody freaks out. But at the start everything is overblown. So funny hearing Cardinal fans explaining that the Cubs are in big trouble and their window is over.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/04/05/how-to-respond-when-you-see-jason-heyward-has-made-the-most-hard-contact-in-baseball-this-year/
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/04/05/how-to-respond-when-you-see-jason-heyward-has-made-the-most-hard-contact-in-baseball-this-year/
a
Heh, heh.
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Lol
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I don’t want to look for it, but is his average swing speed easily found?
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Yes, if you know where to look.
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Heyward also displaying impressing selectivity in his ABs so far:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harpers-laser-like-focus/
That goes hand in hand with a high frequency of hard contact. Hopefully, he can keep it up.
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The Chili Davis effect.
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The offense has generally been pretty disappointing so far and Lester, Darvish and Quintana struggled to start the season. But Lester, Darvish and Quintano pitched well in their second starts and the relievers have been really good up to this point (fingers crossed).
David Kaplan
@thekapman
Cubs relievers in 2018 per @NBCSCubs 9 games
.94 era (best in mlb)
.172 opp ba (3rd in mlb)
.99 whip (t-3rd mlb)
42k in 38.1 IP
Great signs after 9 games. Still 153 games to play.
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As disappointing as the Cubs' start has been, it's worth noting that at 5-4, they have a better record than the Dodgers (3-6), the Nationals (4-5), the Indians (4-5) and the Yankees (5-5).
Oh, and in spite of his dramatic opening game with the Yankees, Giancarlo Stanton has 20 Ks in 42 AB, and a .699 OPS.
Small sample size reminders.
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Since Rizzo's “Respect me!” moment when he won Game 3 of the NLDS against the Nationals, he’s 3-for-53 (.057) with one homer, four RBIs, 18 strikeouts and three walks. Wow!
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Sharma has a really good article on Darvish. I sure do like him. He's the primary reason I subscribe to the Athletic.
https://theathletic.com/306030/2018/04/09/yu-darvish-is-expanding-his-repertoire-as-he-gets-comfortable-with-the-cubs/
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Why do you post links in 1 pt font?
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I think it's a problem with the board. That started happening to me recently too. I think I may have changed some settings to fix it, but I'm not sure. Here's the same link.
https://theathletic.com/306030/2018/04/09/yu-darvish-is-expanding-his-repertoire-as-he-gets-comfortable-with-the-cubs/
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It was actually 2 point font.
{size=2px}https://theathletic.com/306030/2018/04/09/yu-darvish-is-expanding-his-repertoire-as-he-gets-comfortable-with-the-cubs/{/size}
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Sharma has a really good article on Darvish. I sure do like him. He's the primary reason I subscribe to the Athletic.
https://theathletic.com/306030/2018/04/09/yu-darvish-is-expanding-his-repertoire-as-he-gets-comfortable-with-the-cubs/
You subscribe to the Athletic because you like Darvish?
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That was a nice article.
Still, as attractive as is the idea of using a deep 5-7-pitch arsenal of pitches is, I think it's kind of a tricky deal. If you're only throwing 2-3 changeups or curves per game, can you really locate them when you throw them? Or do they end up being pitches that just turn 1-2 counts into 3-2 counts and build up your pitch count?
HOpefully they'll work great for Darvish.
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I'd like to see Darvish throw 10-12 curves and 10-12 changeups a game, ideally.
Even more ideally, I'd love to see him throw the splitter again - many scouts considered it his best pitch, and it was the difference-maker vs. lefties, but he's had to basically abandon it post-TJS. It's really the only difference in his repertoire pre and post-surgery - the velocity is the same as ever, and maybe better. And the numbers vs. LHB do reflect that.
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Rizzo to the DL retroactive to Friday. He'll be eligible to come back for the Cardinals series that starts next week.
No word on the call-up. The only two position players on the 40 man are Zagunis and Bote, though, so you'd think it would be one of them.
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Backs scare me. I think they’d want Bote’s versatility.
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I'd like to see Darvish throw 10-12 curves and 10-12 changeups a game, ideally.
Even more ideally, I'd love to see him throw the splitter again - many scouts considered it his best pitch, and it was the difference-maker vs. lefties, but he's had to basically abandon it post-TJS. It's really the only difference in his repertoire pre and post-surgery.
Why?
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Theory goes that the split finger puts more strain on the elbow.
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Why?
Grab a baseball, spread your fingers wide on the ball and while you are doing that use your non throwing hand to feel the ligaments in your elbow. That will likely explain everything you need to know. If not, add the throwing motion and I'm confident you will understand.
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MDGonzales 23m23 minutes ago
Efren Navarro gets the call to replace Rizzo.
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My concern is that Maddon said last year that from experience he did not press the team hard early. He also said this year would be different. Looks pretty much the same as last year. I'm beginning to think the former leaguer's analysis when he talked to me last summer is correct.
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The key for me is their starting pitching. If they get strong outings from their starters, the offense is good enough to win consistently. But so far the offense hasn't proven to be good enough to overcome mediocre efforts from the starters. Still, decent starting pitching, solid defense, and inconsistent offense will likely be enough to win the Central. But it won't get them to the WS.
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For those others, who do not memorize every one of your posts as I do, can you tell us what he said last summer?
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I'm beginning to think the former leaguer's analysis when he talked to me last summer is correct.
Jog my memory, what was that analysis?
I still think they needed to add another consistently good hitter this offseason. After Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras, all the position players on this team seem prone to going into stretches where they are overmatched. I think the Cubs underestimated how much having Fowler and good Zobrist added to their lineup. Even when they were slumping, they still had good ABs where the opposing pitchers had to grind. The Cubs don't have that anymore except from their three stars.
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There are no consistently good hitters in baseball, none. The best hitters just have shorter slumps.
The unbeatable Astros going into today have 4 hitters with more than 20 PA and an OPS above .700. The Cubs have 6.
The Cubs are struggling with runners on offense and defense. It will even out and be fine.
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Looks like we were worried about the wrong lefty starter (or should or have worried about both). Quintana’w velocity is off even more than Lester’s.
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Q's lost speed on his FB, Cutter and his Curve... but the change up is still the same speed.
This creates a interesting problem where the speed differential between the FB/cutter and change is now a lot lower then in the past.
I think his struggles are 100% due to cold weather so far... if he's doing this in June its time to panic.
If i am not mistaken he spends his winters in Columbia, and isnt exactly a fan of the cold weather.
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Q's lost speed on his FB, Cutter and his Curve... but the change up is still the same speed.
This creates a interesting problem where the speed differential between the FB/cutter and change is now a lot lower then in the past.
I think his struggles are 100% due to cold weather so far... if he's doing this in June its time to panic.
If i am not mistaken he spends his winters in Columbia, and isnt exactly a fan of the cold weather.
Hell, there are a lot of people who winter in Minnesota who aren't fans of the cold weather.
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Eddie Butler to the DL with a groin strain. Luke Farrell has been called up to replace him.
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https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/987414384044593152
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Zobrist said he’s headed to DL
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Bote?
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Fun to get a 2-game winning streak, longest of the year thus far. And fun to get lots of hits. Back-to-back multi-hit games now makes the team composite hitting stats all strong: they are now within top 5 or 6 in each of batting average, OPS, OBP, slugging, and runs-per-game.
The one stat where they are not on high end is HR: although they've played fewer games so perhaps on a per-game rate they'd be at or above average, even if not in the top 10. Of all the offensive stats, HR might be the one we'd expect the Cubs to be good at, and obviously HR's this early are small volumes for everybody. So a weekend in Colorado might be just the thing to add 3-4 more today and tomorrow, and perhaps those will be in the upper group too.
Chris and Bluejay are obviously correct, that any composite numbers are the collection of individual games, and a 5-runs-per-game average doesn't mean you'll score ≥3-5 runs very consistently; the average is always inflated by the big-score games like the last two.
I do agree with Curt that the offense has been unusually bipolar, thus far. 9 good ones, 8 bad ones, not much in between. Probably somewhat flukish and unsustainable, to be so extremely hot/cold. Think maybe the Cubs lineup may be somewhat more prone towards that than some teams, maybe, and perhaps after two good-hitting days, they're due for a couple of can't-do-anything days, who knows.
But hopefully as the weather gets better, and they play more often under less extreme conditions, and as some of the guys who started cold have many now gotten some hits going, hopefully the whole offense will have settled in and gotten more confident, and there will be fewer games with ≤6 hits and ≤1 run. If you want to score runs without HR's and without being given the runs by the opposition, the capacity to bunch hits is critical. "Critical mass" effect. Also think that if you're only going to be getting 5-6 hits per game, guys could logically be tempted to figure the odds of swinging for the HR and scoring is better than the odds of getting a single, and then having one or two guys following also getting hits. But if the batting averages go up, and the guys after you have good chance to get hits and give good AB's, maybe easier to settle for opposite-field ground single or opposite-field single/double rather than HR.
Anyway, hope the offense is ready to take off. They've done it thus far with nothing from Rizzo; so if he starts to be able to provide good AB's and hit the ball hard sometimes, could get better. Obviously Baez's hot streak is longer than he's ever experienced in the majors, so he's way overdue to go into the freezer; Schwarber too. So maybe we've kind of maxed the offense and it's due to regress to mean, beats me.
Starting pitching as collective has been lousy, but for each guy they've only had a small handful of starts. Pretty hopeful that they'll also regress to mean, and start to give more decent/excellent games more consistently. Optimist!
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Offenses are always bipolar.
People mention adding Zobrist to the 2016 being a stabilizing factor. From June-August Zobrist had a wRC+ of 90, 90, 104. He was 111, 200, 134 the other months and finished with a 123 on the year. That is hardly consistent.
I guarantee every team does this people just pay attention like they do to the Cubs.
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Every team is bipolar offensively to an extent. But the Cubs have taken this to a wild extreme so far this season. They have played 7 games in which they scored 7 or more runs (including 4 which they scored in double figures), 7 games in which they scored 0-3 runs (including 3 shutouts), and 3 in which they scored 4-6 runs. Their record in games where they have scored <7 runs is 2-8.
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Bote?
Outfielders Mark Zagunis and Bijan Rademacher are off to strong starts at AAA Iowa.
Ben Zobrist should see a specialist and find out if he needs more than just rest to solve his back stiffness.
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I'm guessing Bote, but I don't think any will get much action other than pinch-hitting. Don't really think much need for an infielder. With Baez flexibility, and with La Stella able to play 2B or 3B, don't see much urgency to give any 2B/SS/3B starts to anybody outside of Baez/Bryant/Russell/TLS. So don't really need Bote for infielding.
Maybe it's Bote, but may as well call whomever has the best bat, whether infielder or outfielder.
I'd guess Zagunis. He's hot for the moment (10/19 over last 5 games), and he always gives professional AB. (His OBP is .408 thus far, right around his career .402 OBP in the minors.) And being a RH guy, if there was a tough lefty where you wanted to rest Heyward, Zagunis might even start a game at some point, if Zobrist is gone for a long time.
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Offenses are always bipolar.
People mention adding Zobrist to the 2016 being a stabilizing factor. From June-August Zobrist had a wRC+ of 90, 90, 104. He was 111, 200, 134 the other months and finished with a 123 on the year. That is hardly consistent.
I guarantee every team does this people just pay attention like they do to the Cubs.
There's more to consistency than just month-by-month wRC+, though. When 2016 Zobrist struggled, he generally still had good ABs. He still put the ball in play consistently and made pitchers work. His wRC+ may be inconsistent, but there were some indirect benefits he still provided in his lesser months. When Happ, Schwarber, Baez, and Russell struggle, they all look a lot like Happ does right now where that spot in the lineup just turns into a black hole. This as much as anything was what I wanted to add to the lineup this past offseason--another hitter or two who isn't so prone to having a week or two where they fail to make contact in half their ABs.
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Some stats come and go. Does anyone else remember when baseball writers tried to respond to what we are arguing now? They wanted to demonstrate that some hitters came through when necessary more often than others, so they developed the GWH. Game Winning Hit. Whoever drove in the run that provided the run that put his team ahead to stay got the GWH. It actually became a bottom line stat. But it was almost as worthless as the Hold or the Save. If a hitter drove in the lead run in the bottom of the second inning to go ahead 2-1 and his team never lost the lead, he got a GWH even if the final score was 15-12. Worthless.
This is why some oldtimers and traditionalists still like RBI's. RBI's reflect whether you are getting hits with RISP. Yes, they are still deceptive if most of your RBI's come after the game has already been decided, but that's exactly why writers developed the GWH which was flawed even more.
I think a stat worth looking at is where were the final four teams of the last ten years in league strikeouts hitting. Most are in the least five. Getting the bat on the ball wins more games than not.
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David Bote will take over for Ben Zobrist.
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There's more to consistency than just month-by-month wRC+, though. When 2016 Zobrist struggled, he generally still had good ABs. He still put the ball in play consistently and made pitchers work. His wRC+ may be inconsistent, but there were some indirect benefits he still provided in his lesser months. When Happ, Schwarber, Baez, and Russell struggle, they all look a lot like Happ does right now where that spot in the lineup just turns into a black hole. This as much as anything was what I wanted to add to the lineup this past offseason--another hitter or two who isn't so prone to having a week or two where they fail to make contact in half their ABs.
Except Russell is struggling right now and is rocking a matching 13% BB and K%.
Bryant has more walks than K’s.
Just how much has the team changed. Happ and Schwarber are the only hitters above 25%. Baez, Willson and Caratini are the only other hitters above 20%.
Baez has been putting together much better AB. Russell has drastically decreased his outside zone percentage.
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The #Cubs are now the only team in #MLB with all active position players under 30.
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Ben Zobrist should see a specialist and find out if he needs more than just rest to solve his back stiffness.
I would bet that he already has.
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Is Gordon Wittenmyer trying to start a dispute between Willson Contreras and Yu Darvish or is it no big deal?
“He walked [Mike Tauchman with one out], and then the fake bunt [by Anderson] I think messed around with Darvish in his head,” Contreras said. “It looks like he got too comfortable when he got the second out. In the big leagues no matter how many outs there are you have to keep attacking the hitters.
“He told me the same thing during the game,” Darvish said in Japanese, through his interpreter, after a deep sigh upon hearing the question. “But I don’t think so. I treat every pitch and every batter as the same regardless of how many outs I have.”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-catcher-yu-darvish-too-comfortable-with-2-outs-unravels-again-in-loss/
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I think Wittenmyer is too blinded by his infatuation with DJ LeMahieu to be able to start a conflict between Contreras and Darvish.
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Emergency call to Gimenez coming soon? Time to earn that statue.
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Almora hitting .331 with 36 RBI in 172 at-bats since last year's all-star break.
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Is it just me, or does Almora have a healthy dose of Jim EdmOnds in him? I'm not convinced he needed to dive on the first catch today. (The second catch required the dive for sure, and the over the head catch yesterday was sensational, so don't get me wrong.)
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No, it’s not just you. I think Edmonds is a pretty good comp for Almora defensively gernally, in fact. Part of it is that being on the slow side, he makes catches look spectacular that a fast CF would coast to. But I do think he has a flair for the dramatic as well.
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Ill take a young Jim Edmonds.
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It never ceases to amaze me that the Almora is slow still exists in an era when statcast data freely available.
Almora is not slow. He is not an elite runner. Almora is just a step slower than Kermeirer. He is the same speed as Bradley and faster than Inciarte. It has been this way for multiple years.
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Is it just me, or does Almora have a healthy dose of Jim EdmOnds in him? I'm not convinced he needed to dive on the first catch today. (The second catch required the dive for sure, and the over the head catch yesterday was sensational, so don't get me wrong.)
I urge you to review the video of Almora's catch (the first one as well as the second one) and then see if you still conclude that he could have caught the ball without diving.
https://www.mlb.com/cut4/albert-almora-makes-superman-catches-in-back-to-back-innings/c-273406914
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Bob Brenly called what Edmonds used to do "short legging it". I have to give Almora the benefit of the doubt on the first catch.
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Deeg channeling his inner Jes to be as obstinaste as possible on the Almora-is-slow nonsense.
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It never ceases to amaze me that the Almora is slow still exists in an era when statcast data freely available.
Almora is not slow. He is not an elite runner. Almora is just a step slower than Kermeirer. He is the same speed as Bradley and faster than Inciarte. It has been this way for multiple years.
I'm with deeg on the amazing side. Almora isn't slow, but neither is he particularly fast for a CFer. Almora has made four wonderful, highlight-reel catches in the last two games, all involving long runs. A trace of a step faster, and any of those catches is less highlight-esque. Only a trace of added speed is the difference between catching a ball on the run versus needing to leave feet or crash.
The first catch, didn't stat-cast(?) mark that as a 79% probability-of-catch, or something like that? Suggests that most guys get to that and catch it. 79% doesn't seems fabulous; but it took a pretty fabulous catch to snag it.
Whatever. He's fun to watch out there and is really smooth/coordinated, and he's great at catching what he can reach. And he's hitting. A good defensive CFer who is hitting well is a very welcome player. Hope he can keep the hitting going, and that he doesn't kill himself defensively.
I also love his intensity and aggressiveness. It's fun to see the healthy intensity/emotion when good things happen, both self and team. Love it.
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If you filter for top defensive CF’ers by WAR for 2016-2017, the list begins with Billy Hamilton.
The next 5 names on the list are as follows:
Pillar
JBJ
Inciarte
Herrera
Cain
By actual Statcast measured data, Almora is faster than *all* those guys, except for Pillar, who registers 0.3 ft/second faster than Almora.
One of Almora’s recent catches was notable for the amount of ground he had to cover, at 85 feet to reach the ball. Given Almora’s sprint speed, in theory he can cover that ground in 3.057 seconds. Within those same 3.057 seconds, the faster Kevin Pillar would have covered at additional... (drumroll)... ELEVEN INCHES of ground.
Almora is most definitely *not* slow. In fact, outside of superhuman Billy Hamilton, Almora’s top speed compares favorably (as in basically equal or superior) to all of the top CFers in baseball. This is objective fact, not anyone’s held-too-tightly amateur scouting opinion.
I’m not saying Almora will be one of the top defensive CFers in baseball. That will depend on his instincts, his routes, his reaction time, his arm, and his acceleration.
But with regards to Almora’s speed, that is most definitely *not* a limiting factor for his defensive potential, unless you think Pillar, JBJ, Inciarte, Herrera, and Cain are also enormously limited in their defensive potential due to being “slow.”
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There is a difference between not being a plus runner and being slow. Plenty of plus defenders in center field run as fast as Almora. If Billy Hamilton or Bryon Buxton are playing CF maybe they make the catch without a dive, but Almora had to run roughly ninety feet to chase down the ball, I doubt that is a 79% catch probability unless he had a horrible jump on the ball.
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I look at it this way, John Kruk would have had 0% chance on any of those catches.
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BigBadBanana would have had a 0% chance on any of those catches too.
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When comparing guys like Hamilton and Almora, one has to also factor in "judgement." IMO, Almora has almost freaking judgement on the depth and direction of a fly ball. I've seen Hamilton make spectacular catches but he doesn't get some because of hesitation or taking a misstep in the wrong direction. You seldom see that with Almora. When it comes to speed, I think it only hurts him on coming in on a low liner for a shoestring catch.
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... Billy Hamilton. Pillar JBJ Inciarte Herrera Cain
.....Within those same 3.057 seconds, the faster Kevin Pillar would have covered at additional... (drumroll)... ELEVEN INCHES of ground.
..............
I infer you think 11 inches of ground is not significant. I'm not sure I'm in sync on that. 11 inches is pretty significant, and can impact plays on the full extent of a guy's range.
*How many times wouldn't an extra 11 inches be the difference between charge-dive-short-hop-it's-a-hit versus charge-dive-and-catch?
*Almora made four wonderful, beautiful, exciting long running catches in Colorado, in which he was at the full extension of his range on each of them. Wouldn't a +/- of 11 inches have changed each of those plays quite significantly? If he was 11 inches lesser in range, I'm not sure he'd have caught more than one of those balls, if any. An extra 11 inches and the dive-crash-roll catch yesterday is not within his reach. An extra 11 inches and one or more of the at-the-wall ball is over his glove. An 11-inch differential can impact.
*Likewise, at extra 11 inches of range, and at least the left-center-field diving catch might have instead been a beautiful run-run-run-arm-extend-catch-the-ball-on-the-run without ever needing to hit the ground and dive-crash-roll. An extra 11 inches, and at-the-wall might have been beautiful running catch, but with an extra couple of micro-seconds with which to get right hand up and collect-brace before smashing into the wall.
I guess I'm saying that over the course of a season, an 11-inch differential in range is limited but non-trivial distinction.
Different way, that means two of the top-6 over last several years are faster than Almora, much (Hamilton) or slight (Pillar).
I admit my perspective is perhaps impacted because I live in Minnesota; Buxton can really fly, AND I think he seems to be a pretty quick-twitch good-jumps and quick-to-max-speed-acceleration guy. So I see a lot of Buxton highlights. I think Buxton, like Hamilton, is more more than 11-inches faster, and Buxton might have made all-four of the Almora catches without much highlight-reel; and that some of the Buxton high-light reel catches Almora just wouldn't be within dive-and-highlight-reel range.
I love Almora's catches, and he seems so fundamentally sound out there, and so great at catching anything he can get too, he's super fun to watch. I'm absolutely not saying "slow". But there are a few CFers who are super fast, Buxton and Hamilton being among them; without that kind of speed, there are just going to be some balls they can get that Almora can't catch despite his skill.
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You’re talking about 2 elite defensive CFers there...not just good, or great...but elite. Pretty high bar...
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Exactly. Almora isn't elite because he can't run with the elites.
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I'm satisfied with Almora being just short of elite defensively.
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Craig, your inference is correct, I do not think that 11 inches is terribly significant here. The context is VERY important.
First off, what is the question: is Almora a slow CFer? Objective data says no.
The implied question: is Almora's speed a limiting factor when evaluating the quality of his defense? Again, the objective data clearly says no, speed is not a limiting factor for the quality of his defense, given that some of the best CFers in baseball are *slower* than Almora.
Holding all things equal, would I like to have an extra 11 inches of range? Yes! Absolutely!
Are those extra 11 inches determinant in answering either of the major questions (Is Almora slow? Is Almora's speed a limiting factor for the quality of his defense?)? No! Absolutely not!
Almora has a baseline of speed at which defensive excellence in CF is completely possible.
Diving in deeper: Almora is already faster than universally regarded excellent defensive CFers such as JBJ, Inciarte, and Cain. Herrera is a new addition to the top CF list, but the early returns on his defense are positive. The data shows that you can be *SLOWER* than Almora and be one of the best defensive CFers in baseball. Why is this?
Because speed isn't everything: you do not have to be an olympic-level sprinter to be an excellent defensive CFer. Yes, Hamilton and Buxton are superior defensive CFers in part because of their top speed (which is on an order of 3 feet/second, not 0.3 feet/second, faster than Almora and group). But there are so many factors that go into CF defense beyond speed: how good are your instincts? How quick is your first step? How quick is your acceleration? How efficient is your route? Given a certain baseline speed (say the Almora group), all of these factors are *significantly* more important than a few tenths of a points of extra ft/second speed. Hamilton and Buxton have enough of a speed-advantage compared to the Almora group that their speed can meaningfully make up for deficiencies in the other aforementioned factors, and, as Curt mentioned, this is a major part of Hamilton's game, who seems to sometimes take suboptimal routes, etc. Buxton is a truly special talent who seems to combine 80 speed with top grades for all the other defensive categories.
Will Almora ever be the defender that Buxton is? No, he will not. But Almora can still be a superior defensive CF. Is a 65-70 grade defensive CF better than an 80 grade? No! Is it still really, really, really good? Yes!
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Exactly. Almora isn't elite because he can't run with the elites.
This would be true if speed were the only determining factor for CF defense. It's not, it's not even close.
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Reaction time and route efficiency can make up those 11 inches, which Almora excels at.
Buxton and Hamilton make everyone in baseball slow.
Almora is 87/330 MLB players in sprint speed so far this year.
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Thinking about other tools, saying Almora is slow because he doesn't run like Buxton/Hamilton is like saying Bryant is a weak hitter because he doesn't have 80-grade-Stanton-level power.
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This would be true if speed were the only determining factor for CF defense. It's not, it's not even close.
:):) Acting like reasonably thoughtful posters on the board don't understand that speed isn't the only determining factor feels kinda silly and patronizing! :):) What's the point in even having a discussion if the assumption is that others have 1st-grade simplicity?
Yes, skill/instinct-etc. is part of the equation, and speed isn't the only thing, thanks! Wow, I'm ready for 2nd grade now, like that had never occurred to me before!
Being fast like Buxton doesn't mean you have to have skill like Dwaine Bacon. Being really good AND really fast can be a thing, resulting in being elite.
CFers that play with high skill include Buxton, and I believe Hamilton also. Maybe Pillar, Almora, Cain, and Inciarte can all get a jump and track a ball perhaps as well as Buxton can; but it's not clear that he can't jump-and-track as well as they can, either.
When Buxton jumps/tracks as well, there are balls that he can outrun that Almora and Inciarte can't quite reach. That speed isn't the **only** factor is obviously true, but to act like it isn't a factor is overreacting. Super-elite CFers may have both elite-skill AND elite speed besides.
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Im fairly certain that Almora is elite defensively.
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:):) Acting like reasonably thoughtful posters on the board don't understand that speed isn't the only determining factor feels kinda silly and patronizing! :):) What's the point in even having a discussion if the assumption is that others have 1st-grade simplicity?
Yes, skill/instinct-etc. is part of the equation, and speed isn't the only thing, thanks! Wow, I'm ready for 2nd grade now, like that had never occurred to me before!
Being fast like Buxton doesn't mean you have to have skill like Dwaine Bacon. Being really good AND really fast can be a thing, resulting in being elite.
CFers that play with high skill include Buxton, and I believe Hamilton also. Maybe Pillar, Almora, Cain, and Inciarte can all get a jump and track a ball perhaps as well as Buxton can; but it's not clear that he can't jump-and-track as well as they can, either.
When Buxton jumps/tracks as well, there are balls that he can outrun that Almora and Inciarte can't quite reach. That speed isn't the **only** factor is obviously true, but to act like it isn't a factor is overreacting. Super-elite CFers may have both elite-skill AND elite speed besides.
Sorry, craig, not trying to be patronizing! Apologies if you felt that way. My exclamation points and tone were meant to be humorous - perhaps that didn't translate. Just responding to what I read in your comment, which literally says that Almora cannot be elite because he cannot run with the elites. That seems to draw a hard line without much nuance. Let me know if I'm supposed to read that differently.
I'm not saying that speed isn't a factor. Again: "Given a certain baseline speed (say the Almora group), all of these factors are *significantly* more important than... speed."
Does speed matter? Yes. But Almora has enough of it that it's not a significant detriment to his overall defensive abilities.
No one is saying Almora is an 80 grade defensive CF. But 70 grade is in reach, if all of the other factors (routes, first step, etc.) are there.
70 grade defense is fantastic. I'd call it elite.
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I think Almora can never be "elite" to the level that Hamilton has been, and Buxton has been and can be. Yes, because he can't run with them.
Can he be really good? Sure, absolutely.
But I don't think he will ever be at the very top, because guys like Hamilton and Buxton can both match (or exceed) Almora's skill AND exceed his speed. Of course the speed isn't the only factor. But it's a tie-breaker that will prevent Almora from ever being on par with the **very** best.
Same with Pillar. Over 3-year period on an inning-played basis, Hamilton's defensive WAR is about half-again better than Pillar, and Buxton is around 10% better than Pillar. Maybe they are just more skillful than Pillar, and the speed has nothing to do with it. But I'm guessing that Pillar's skill is fabulous-to-the-max, and that what separates Hamilton and to lesser extent Buxton is not their superior skill but their superior speed.
I don't expect Almora to out-skill Pillar, or to out-WAR-per-inning Pillar or Hamilton or Buxton. (Well, actually I think he may out-WAR Pillar in time; I don't expect Pillar's skill to decline, but as he moves into his 30's it's well possible that his speed will decline to some extent, and when it does that his D-WAR-per-inning will decline, perhaps eventually below that of Albert?)
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Ok, well, if the argument is that Almora is not an 80 grade defensive CF, I don't think any of the Almora advocates are making that suggestion in the first place.
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So of the problem might be what is considered elite. If you are going to limit it to 80 grade defense then that is more restrictive than a number 1 pitcher being under 10 in the game.
An elite defender in the game would be a 60+ defender for me. I think Almora, Inciarte, Bradley all fit into that catagory. A good defender would be a 55+. Almora is beyond a 55.
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It really feels like we need more adjectives. There is a large divide between average and elite. Excellent, great, good. I'm not sure awesome would make for a good category, but there may be a few others. Elite to me, is the top few percent of guys...the no doubters.
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Actually the same! :) If you apply "elite" to ≤10 starting pitchers, then you should apply "elite" to ≤2 center fielders, since there are 5 times as many starting pitchers.
So, using pitcher terminology, Hamilton and Buxton are the present "elite" CFers, the "#1" guys. Almora's got upside to become a "#2".
Heh heh, the analogy is obviously strained, since all we care about starting pitchers is how they pitch. But for CFers, Hamilton may be a #1 defender, but he's a "#5" (if that) as a hitter, and that's about all Buxton's been thus far also.
Almora's hitting .327 with an .888 OPS; hit >.300 2nd half last year; hit .298 overall with a solid .782-OPS last year. That's a guy who might be a VERY good hitter. #2-ceiling defense combined with >.800-OPS offense, much more valuable than Hamilton or Buxton despite their #1-defense. And even if Albert's defense is never more than "#3", that's still just fine if he's >.800-OPS hitter.
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Here's where we need to be careful with the terms.
Using a limited #1, also means a much different definition for #2 and #3 though too.
A #1 is 7-8 WAR pitcher
A #2 is 5-4 WAR pitcher
A #3 is 2.5-4 WAR pitcher
A #4 is 2-.5 WAR
a #5 is 1.5 WAR
So a >800 OPS hitter in CF with #1 defense would be Mike Trout. A #2 defense would be an MVP candidate A #3 would be a perennial all-star. A #4 with >.800 OPS would be an above average starter. A #5 starter defense and >.800 OPS would still be better than Hamilton. Buxton could literally be anywhere on this continuum.
A league average hitter with #3 defense would be light years better than Hamilton.
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Whatever. I don't think we need to make it that difficult or that complex. Scherzer's and Kershaws are #1's, better than cats like Quintana and Lester. Hamilton and Buxton are likewise #1's, on a likewise different level from good guys like Cain/Inciarte/Almora. There's a difference from stud #1s.
As far as an .810-OPS Almora being an MVP candidate if he can defend #2 on par with Cain/Inciarte, I don't suspect he'll be a super strong candidate! Again, I think there tend to be some stud #1-overall guys who separate themselves.
Whatever, lets see. Last year, the stats stuff had him as a below-average defensive CFer; and Maddon didn't trust him to start versus righties much. So lets see whether he can be an ≥.800-OPS hitter playing regularly against righties; and let's see whether the defensive metrics over a larger sample establish him to be in the #2/#3 defensive-CF group or not.
What we do NOT need to wait on is his relative superiority to Hamilton! Not even close. :)
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Beware Semantics arguments.
I'll stick with the EdmOnds comp. I'm an advocate of his and have been all along, but I do think it's possible our eyes tell us he's better defensively than he is because of a flair for the dramatic. He still occasionally dives headfirst into first base--it may just be part of his game to dive even when he could have made the catch by running through it.
Like Dusty said, if he's the second coming of Jim EdmOnds, I'm cool with that. I would much rather see Almora in center than Happ or Heyward.
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It'a amusing how Almora fans only quote stats where it helps their case. Ignored, conveniently, is that fact that his defensive metrics for by far the largest sample size (2017) show him as about average (or slightly below) both in terms of range and overall defense in CF.
I like Almora - and if he hits .350 or whatever the hell he's hitting now, his defense is hardly the most important element in determining his value. But he is on the slow side for a CF - not slow overall (again, about average) but for a CF on the slower end of the spectrum. He makes up for that in part with good instincts and good routes, and the fact that he isn't a burner means he makes a lot of very attractive running catches because he has to. He's doing enough right now to deserve a shot at playing every day. Why anyone chooses to take that assessment as some sort of attack is a mystery to me.
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[quote author=craig link=topic=496.msg342482#msg342482 date=1524518923
As far as an .810-OPS Almora being an MVP candidate if he can defend #2 on par with Cain/Inciarte, I don't suspect he'll be a super strong candidate! Again, I think there tend to be some stud #1-overall guys who separate themselves.
[/quote]
Keven Kiermaier had a 3.2 fWAR season with a UZR/150 of 8.2, down from his previous UZR/150 18-20 in the past. He had an OPS of .788. He did that in 98 games. 2015 Lorenzo Cain had an OPS of .838 and a UZR/150 of 11.3 in 140 games that was worth 6.1 fWAR and and a 3rd place finish in the AL MVP voting. So yeah he'd be a strong candidate, but he'd likely get dinged from being on the same team as Rizzo and Bryant too.
Billy Hamiliton has worth 1.3 fWAR in 633 PA last year. Almora was worth 1.1 fWAR in 323 PA last year.
It'a amusing how Almora fans only quote stats where it helps their case. Ignored, conveniently, is that fact that his defensive metrics for by far the largest sample size (2017) show him as about average (or slightly below) both in terms of range and overall defense in CF.
I like Almora - and if he hits .350 or whatever the hell he's hitting now, his defense is hardly the most important element in determining his value. But he is on the slow side for a CF - not slow overall (again, about average) but for a CF on the slower end of the spectrum. He makes up for that in part with good instincts and good routes, and the fact that he isn't a burner means he makes a lot of very attractive running catches because he has to. He's doing enough right now to deserve a shot at playing every day. Why anyone chooses to take that assessment as some sort of attack is a mystery to me.
1.) Almora's 2017 had about 600 innings of time in CF, which is less than 1/2 of a season of data. Considering it takes well over 2 years for the data to stabilize this is meaningless.
2.) Almora sprint speed is above average for a major leaguer and about average for a CF. Why you can't accept this is beyond me, just because BA put out a bad scouting report many years ago your judgement has been consistently clouded on this. Average CF defense with all his other skills adds up to a really good CF. If we're going to use SS he has a UZR/150 of 12 this year in CF, which would have ranked second in the majors last year behind Michael Taylor and ahead of Buxton and Hamilton. Almora's rating will go down because he plays in Wrigley and if he did a few of his catches in Wrigley he'd be dead running into the brick wall.
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What's the point in even having a discussion if the assumption is that others have 1st-grade simplicity?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.........
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Joe DiMaggio was generally regarded as an excellent CFer, and not regarded as particularly fast. His career range factor in CF, a more meaningful # than fWAR, which is more of a manufactured number, was 2.79 per 9 innings, while the league range factor for CF over the same time was 2.90 for CFers, meaning the avg CF actually got to about one tenth of a ball per game than DiMaggio.
Willie Mays was also generally regarded as an excellent CFer, and was regarded as having well about average speed. His career range factor in CF was 2.67 per 9 innings, while the league range factor for CF over the same time was 2.55 for CFers, meaning Mays actually got to about one tenth of a ball per game than the avg CF.
But most people would have regarded both DiMaggio and Mays as elite CFers.
Billy Hamilton, who is likely one of the fastest runners ever to play the game, however, gets to an avg of 2.59 balls per 9 innings, while the league avg is 2.40, or almost two tenths of a ball more per game than the league average CFer.
The debate over Amora's speed and to what degree that might or might not limit his effectiveness in CF would seem to be misguided. The key is really how many balls he gets to -- in other words his range factor, which is a very neutral stat, even if at this point he has not yet been playing long enough to have a particularly meaningful sample size, is the relevant issue, not how fast he does or doesn't run. For what its worth, so far, Almora has a range factor per 9 innings of 2.47, compared to a league avg of 2.34, or just a shade better than Mays did compared to the league avg, but not as good as Hamilton's margin compared to the league.
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Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Cubs a 40.1% chance of winning the NL Central. What a load of BS. I'd put big money on that one, if they would dare take the bet.
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Whatever the stats may or may not say, Willie Freaking Mays was most certainly an "elite" defensive CF, however one may wish to define the word "elite." Period.
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Range Factor is PO + A/ innings or games.
Over a long enough time frame it might be useful, but it can have several confounding factors.
For an OF what is the pitching staff. If they are predominately a ground ball staff, there will be less chances than if you are pitching with a fly ball staff. What does the composition of the OF life look like. Having Heyward in RF will suck up PO opportunities vs Hamilton generally having poor corner OF partners.
A newer version of this is OAA (outs above average) it takes the hit probability of balls hit to a fielder and compares the catch percentage. Almora is +1 in this. Still most of his chances have been high probability catches so it is harder for him to make a difference vs someone who has had more low probability catches. Plus Wrigley puts a dent in his ability to make catches like the ones he did in Colorado. Running full speed it a padded wall is easier on the body than running full speed into a brick wall. Plus the overall size of the OF limits him vs having a large OF in say Coors. More ground to cover will lead to more low probability catches.
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Sharma chimes in on Almora's catches, Schwarber's impressive start, encouraging signs with Quintana and more.
https://theathletic.com/327136/2018/04/23/clubhouse-access-the-problem-with-statcasts-catch-probability/
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Ben Zobrist was eligible to come off the disabled list Tuesday but there has been no mention of how he is doing.
Meanwhile, Ian Happ appears to be doing everything he can to make sure it is David Bote who goes to Iowa when Zobrist finally does return. Happ has to know that Kyle Schwarber was sent to Iowa during what was essentially his second season and doesn’t want the same thing to happen to him.
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I believe Zobrist is not eligible to come off the DL until Saturday.
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The Cubs placed Ben Zobrist (back) on the 10 day DL on Saturday retroactive to April 18.
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Sharma on David Bote's development as a hitter, and the Cubs' analytics team role in it.
https://theathletic.com/328430/2018/04/25/launch-party-how-cubs-infielder-david-bote-finally-got-to-the-majors/
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I like Bote.
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I like Bote.
Ben Zobrist is back from the DL. No word on whose spot he takes. Unless there is some surprise injury to someone else, Bote is probably on his way back to Des Moines.
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Bote to Iowa.
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Sharma on Morrow & Edwards:
https://theathletic.com/336209/2018/04/30/relievers-dont-love-making-headlines-but-brandon-morrow-and-carl-edwards-jr-are-pitching-too-well-not-to/
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Jon Heyman suggests the Cubs make sense to deal for Machado at the deadline:
https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/cubs/heyman-do-cubs-make-sense-as-machado-trade-destination
Not sure I'm buying that. Even if the Orioles were interested in Russell as a piece, what else do the Cubs have to offer?
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I'm not sure Russell makes sense. If Russell breaks out between now and July, why would the Cubs want to trade him? If he doesn't break out, why would a team that is going to be terrible for the forseeable future want to bet on upside on a guy who is only 3 1/2 years from free agency? The Orioles are one of the worst run teams in MLB, though, so maybe they'd be interested.
From a pure value standpoint, 3 1/2 years of Russell for 2-3 months of Machado should be enough straight up...I don't understand why we keep hearing that it would cost more than that.
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Not interested. I'm done with rentals.
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Not interested. I'm done with rentals.
I agree.
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Not interested. I'm done with rentals.
There are different levels of rentals though. I'm out on any kind of top prospect for rental deal.
But if we get to July, Russell still doesn't look like more than a good defensive/questionable offensive shortstop, and Russell is the only really valuable player the Cubs would have to give up, I might be on board for giving up 3 years of him for half a year of Machado.
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Javy can play SS,Happ can play 2nd,Almora can play CF,and Schwarber and Heyward have the corners.
I might trade Russell for Machado if it meant another ring.
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The problem is that the odds are that we will not get another ring, whether we get Machado or not. Even assuming that the Cubs win their division, the playoff teams are close enough in talent that no one is greater than 60/40 to win either of the two rounds. Which means that any single team has little more than a one third chance to win their two rounds. And then little more than 50/50 to win the world series.
In short, any team winning their division has much less than a 25% chance to go on to win the World Series. And no single player you get in trade is going to increase those odds very much. Giving up a top prospect in the hopes that it wins the Series is a poor bet.
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FWIW...the Braves DFA'd outfielder Lane Adams last week, and a Braves beat writer just tweeted this:
David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
Sounds like there's a good chance Lane Adams ends up back with the Cubs.
I saw several tweets today about beat writers asking if Happ could be sent back to AAA soon. Levine also had an article earlier today that said the Cubs were looking for an outfielder who could play all three positions, and Adams has done that in his short time in MLB.
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He's fast.
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(http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/sites/csnchicago/files/styles/article_hero_image/public/2018/05/03/contreras_final.jpg?itok=n3_jyb1z)
It's safe to say that Willson Contreras is having a great off-day Thursday.
The Cubs will kick-off a three-game series against the Cardinals Friday night. Before making the trip down to St. Louis, though, Contreras got married to his girlfriend, Andrea Villamizar.
Contreras posted the marriage announcement on his Instagram account Thursday. Take a look at the photos from the occasion:
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Jesse Rogers has an article on Albert Almora's defense, including comments from Almora and Jason Heyward.
http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46784/how-albert-almora-keeps-turning-doubles-into-outs
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It's odd that there's so much babble about Almora's defense, which I think everyone agrees is at least fine, when the question is and always has been whether can hit RHP enough to play every day. He's under .700 OPS career and under .600 this season - so far, there's just no evidence he can.
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And don't forget--he also didn't hit especially well at any level above low-A ball in the minors.
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Yes, exactly. I mean - isn't the burden of proof on him to prove he can actually do it before you just give him the spot?
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When the alternative is Ian Happ...
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The better alternative was adding a CF in the offseason.
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Almora’s splits are so small in size right now the difference between a sub .600 and above .700 OPS is like 3 singles.
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Almora’s splits are so small in size right now the difference between a sub .600 and above .700 OPS is like 3 singles.
Then there's those annoying career numbers.
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When the alternative is Ian Happ...
The difference, of course, being that Happ had an .863 OPS against righties as a rookie and destroyed them in the minors. At least with Happ there's the hope of a regression to the mean, not to mention he's even less experienced than Almora and might just get better. With Almora there's never been a scrap of evidence he can hit righties consistently, including in the minors.
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Then there's those annoying career numbers.
You mean those total 328 PA and .692 OPS. Yep 3 singles move him to above .700 against righties. Baez in his first 229 PA had a .551 OPS and 41.5% K%.
These numbers are far from meaningful for a 24 year old with 527 PA spread over 3 years.
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The Cubs have signed Lane Adams, who elected for free agency after the Braves DFA'd him.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/05/cubs-sign-a-new-outfielder-lane-adams/
Adams, 28, can play all over the outfield, and the righty has actually been a plus bat in his big league career (.264/.338/.450, 108 wRC+), including the last two years with the Braves (.270/.345/.460, 113 wRC+, 143 PAs).
It seems like there must have been better opportunities out there for him. I wonder if he was given some kind of assurance that he'd be in the majors at some point pretty soon.
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When do MLB regulars peak? 27? 28? 29? Certainly, there have been a lot of different theories and stats to prove the hypotheses.
Whatever the peak age is, it's certainly not 24...in the case of Almora, he just turned 24 mid-April.
It's a bit early to draw conclusions about what he will do at the plate with more seasoning later this year...or perhaps next year (or...)
Like Schwarber and Russell, and Happ, and some of the others, no one knows what they might do...however, it's usually a very safe bet that a just-turned 24-year old is going to get better, and perform better, with more seasoning.
It can be frustrating following the young guys, for sure, particularly after all the success we've enjoyed the past three years.
It can even be hard trusting Theo, Jed and Joe to make the right calls with our young guys (and some of the not-so-young guys).
Hopefully, our patience will be rewarded...again.
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I might note that Happ is even younger than Almora.
I’m not sure either have peaked, but I would argue based on past performance that Happ is likely to wind up the better hitter by a comfortable margin.
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Ill take Happ every day of the week.
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Happ and Almora are very different players with different issues.
IF Almora can learn to hit RF pitchers and grow into more power and OBP...he's already a plus CF with a high baseball IQ.
IF Happ can control his Ks and improve his OBP with even better pitch recognition, he could be extremely valuable - versatile at multiple defensive and/or lineup positions.
Very glad we have both guys...it will be interesting to see how each develops.
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Almora is better in CF and I doubt that Happ ever closss the gap. Happ’s value on defense is he can play a bunch of positions in a not horrible fashion with the potential for a plus bat. He fits really well into a Zobrist role where he can get time at all three OF positions, 2B and maybe 3B.
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I might note that Happ is even younger than Almora.
I’m not sure either have peaked, but I would argue based on past performance that Happ is likely to wind up the better hitter by a comfortable margin.
I don't think that many would dispute that. Just as few would dispute that based upon past performance, Almora will wind up the better fielder by a comfortable margin. The question is, which would end up the most valuable center fielder in total.
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According to ESPN's RPI, the Cubs have played the toughest schedule in baseball so far this year. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/s
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According to ESPN's RPI, the Cubs have played the toughest schedule in baseball so far this year. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/s
Well, that is something, I guess.
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Almora and Happ are neck and neck in soft contact percentage so they have that in common. Five Cubs in the top 23, most of any team.
https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/993179142572175360
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We'll all be laughing about this in October.
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Cubs put together a retrospective on Kerry Wood's 20-K game as Sunday was the 20th anniversary.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/video/20/c-2012548383
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I watched it earlier tonight.
I remember coming home from school and watching the end of the game.
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I scored the game. Ran out in pajamas to show the next door neighbor, it was over the top that performance. Lost the score card down the line though.
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Can we start a Cubs in '19 topic yet?
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I think I still have that game on VHS somewhere in my house. Don't have a player anymore but I got the tape. I taped it so I could watch the game when I got home from work.
Damn that makes me think of how dependent I am of my DVR now. Setting up that VHS to start recording while at work was a **** to program.
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For the week Willson Contreras was 1-19 with 3 walks and 2 errors.
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Jason Heyward is 3-22 in his last 5 games with 2 walks and 5 k's. He made several excellent plays in rightfield but also blew the flyball to right that cost the Cubs the game in Saturday.
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Ian Happ is 2-13 in his last five with a double, 2 walks and 7 k's. So his trend of striking out in half of his plate appearances actually worsened during the losing streak.
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Send them to Iowa - that'll fix 'em
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Amazing article by Brett Taylor that really puts things into perspective:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/in-100-years/
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“I thought I did a great job,” said the Chicago native and area resident, who was one of three Cubs coaches suddenly fired at the end of last season. “And they felt that someone else could take these hitters to the next step, that I wasn’t really qualified in their minds to do it; that’s their opinion.”
Mallee is a proponent of the neo-popular launch-angle theory of hitting against the game’s increases in velocity and defensive shifts, which stresses driving the ball in the air. It tends to increase strikeouts.
Davis is more about putting the ball in play where the pitcher gives you the best chance to do it – a change in Cub philosophy this year evident in recent weeks just in Maddon’s mocking of launch angle and “exit velocity.”
https://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=512003
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Amazing article by Brett Taylor that really puts things into perspective:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/in-100-years/
Thanks for posting this Plytwo. It is a really worthwhile read.
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The Cubs sent Luke Farrell down while recalling righty Cory Mazzoni from Triple-A Iowa.
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Who?
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Former Met prospect.
Darvish to the DL with parainfluenza virus, move due tomorrow.
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Curse you, 82!
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Who?
Mazzoni had more innings available than Maples and other Iowa pitchers.
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Darvish only expected to miss 1 start and Tseng was scratched from his Iowa start.
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Same difference at this point.
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Jen-Ho Tseng was scratched from his start Monday night for Triple-A Iowa. Tseng is 0-4 with an 8.04 ERA in six starts.
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Is Tseng the only Iowa SP on the 40?
Seems odd to reward those numbers...is Underwood not an option due to rotational timing?
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Alzolay and Mills also.
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Mills pitched 5/4
Alzolay 5/5
Underwood 5/6
So they’d all be short rest.
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What about AA?
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Clifton pitched tonight and he’s been better this year. No idea about his stuff.
De La Cruz and Hatch pitched 5/5 and 5/4.
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Patrick Mooney
With the rotation in flux, a look at why the #Cubs mapped out such an aggressive plan for Adbert Alzolay:
Bleacher Nation
More Bleacher Nation Retweeted Patrick Mooney
Another great read from Mooney on the Cubs' most immediately-available, potentially-impactful pitching prospect. Bit of a bummer Alzolay's turn in the rotation didn't line up for him to fill in today, but that could still happen later this year (or a bullpen assist).
Patrick Mooney
#AlzolayTime (coming soon).
3 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
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If there was any doubt
Scheduled starter Jen-Ho Tseng was summoned to Chicago to replace Yu Darvish which necessitated a bullpen day for the I-Cubs. Brad Markey was activated and received the starting nod, but pitched just two innings, and gave up three runs. Alberto Baldonado gave up two more over the next two innings. The next three relievers held the Express in check, however, highlighted by three shutout innings by Randy Rosario which lowered his ERA to 0.60 on the season.
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The Cubs might need to score more than they did last night to win this one. Tseng has been putrid so far.
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The Cubs might need to score more than they did last night to win this one. Tseng has been putrid so far.
It's a shame Heyward took that slide underneath the fly ball on Sunday and which then went over his head and scored the tying run. If Heyward just catches the ball, not only would the Cubs presumably have won that game, but Montgomery wouldn't have pitched 3 extra innings and they wouldn't need to be starting Tseng.
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I've got to imagine the Cubs are viewing this as a bullpen day anyway. Tseng will presumably have a very short hook.
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Carrie Muskat
@CarrieMuskat
On his weekly radio show on @670TheScore, #Cubs Maddon says he made out 2 lineups, waiting to see if Baez is available. Also, wouldn't reveal tonight's starter
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Seems it would be prudent to give him a day or two. Especially with the way he plays (and swings), wouldn't be wise to mess around with a groin injury...
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A day or two would be a win. When this happened in the Spring it was 1-2 weeks.
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Mazzoni out and Zastrynzy called up.
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Hendricks was masterful once again last night! Pitched to contact (so ZERO walks once again), went deep in the game!
He's just a TREMENDOUS pitcher! Further evidence is that, since he entered the league in 2014, here are the starting pitchers with better ERA (thanks to Bleacher Nation):
Kershaw
Scherzer
Arrieta
Kluber
deGrom
Syndegaard
Greinke
Sale
Bumgarner
Over the past 3-4 years, has Hendricks been one of the very best SPs in MLB? Yes. He has.
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But reality is going to come crashing down on him any start now.
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We are all disappointed with the Cubs' first month or so of the season. Among the pitchers, Darvish and Quintana in particular.
But there are some silver linings: the bullpen core (Duensing 0.0 ERA, 0.94 WHIP; Edwards, 0.56 ERA, 0.88 WHIP; Morrow, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP; Strop 1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Among starters: Hendricks 3.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and Jon Lester 2.82 ERA, 1.33 (OK, not great, but better than the other starters).
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Here are 5 views of Jason Heyward trying to catch Dexter Fowler's game winning homer Sunday night. Heyward's head does hit the padded railing.
https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/dexter-fowler-hits-walk-off-homer-vs-cubs/c-275596408
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But reality is going to come crashing down on him any start now.
Well, you know that he has so little margin of error on his speed, that if he loses just a tenth of a mile an hour on his fastball opposing hitters will all be putting up an OPS of 1.200 or better against him....
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 1h1 hour ago
Tseng, Zastryzny optioned, Hancock, Zagunis up
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Wonder what it would take to get Iglesias from the Reds. Could the Cubs package something together apart from Alzolay, Amaya, and Ademan? Probably have to include one of them I suspect.
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For a closer with 2.5 years of control at $5 million/year? I'm guessing all 3 wouldn't be the top offer.
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A reminder of why I love Joe Maddon (even when I disagree with his decisions).
https://theathletic.com/347598/2018/05/08/joe-maddon-doesnt-give-a-rats-ass-about-your-lineup-suggestions-and-he-says-we-can-use-that-on-the-athletic/
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https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/chicago-cubs-addison-russell-manny-machado-theo-epstein-baltimore-orioles/
A terrible column by Morrissey. Fortunately, Theo just came out and all but said that he is not interested in rentals.
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Morrissey is nothing more than a provacateur. He is a current version of Skip Bayless.
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What's so awful about the column? That he proposes acquiring Machado?
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That Russell hasn't lived up to the hype?
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I think the problem is if you trade Russell + Machado (and the plus would still be good). Is Machado enough to guarantee a World Series this year? Not if Quntana and Darvish continue to struggle. What happens if Machado goes to a different team in the off-season? You then have to move Baez to SS and presumably Happ/Zobrist battle it out at 2B. So the off-season then becomes you have to resign Machado or the team is a lot weaker.
Acquiring Machado without giving up Russell would be fantastic. You could then install him at SS, move Russell to 2B and Baez to 3B and Bryant to RF. That improves the offense and infield defense is amazing. The problem is the Cubs don't really have the prospect capital to get Machado without Russell. That even assumes that Russell would interest the Orioles if they go full rebuild with only 4 years of control left.
This of course leaves out the fact that Russell has dropped his K% and is starting to hit for power the last couple of weeks. His breakout might be just around the corner.
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The concept of replacing Russell with Machado long term would be great. The idea of trading Russell to (quite possibly) get < 1 season of Machado is idiocy. Fortunately, Theo is not an idiot.
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There seems to be enough smoke around the Harper free agency push that I believe Theo truly wants him and will go after him as he did with Darvish and Heyward and Lester. This rumor sounds like just a rumor. I seriously doubt it and do not believe it would be in keeping with the Cub's belief that this is a 4 year contending window. Why possibly weaken yourself for 3 of those years in order to possibly win in one?
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There seems to be enough smoke around the Harper free agency push that I believe Theo truly wants him and will go after him as he did with Darvish and Heyward and Lester. This rumor sounds like just a rumor. I seriously doubt it and do not believe it would be in keeping with the Cub's belief that this is a 4 year contending window. Why possibly weaken yourself for 3 of those years in order to possibly win in one?
This all makes sense, except that they really want to move Russell.
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This is fact or speculation?
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This is fact or speculation?
It's a fact as much as anything I type relative to the Cubs is a fact.
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Total number of minor and major league PAs for our sometimes frustrating young hitters (pre-2018, excludes winter ball and AFL time):
Minors Majors Total
Baez 1693 1267 2960
Contreras 2132 711 2843
Russell 1090 1506 2596
Almora 1733 440 2173
Schwarber 665 764 1429
Happ 978 413 1391
Too early to say for sure that Baez has broken through. But this is interesting. Who was it that used to say that a hitter needs around 3000 professional plate appearances before you'll know what he's really going to be? Steve Stone?
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....This of course leaves out the fact that Russell has dropped his K% and is starting to hit for power the last couple of weeks. His breakout might be just around the corner.
That would be nice.
With his HR, and with some recent contact dropping in for hits, he's got his average up to .261, a career high; and his OPS is up over .700, not that far short of his career .719.
Would be really fun if he magically developed into an average hitter.
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That would be nice.
With his HR, and with some recent contact dropping in for hits, he's got his average up to .261, a career high; and his OPS is up over .700, not that far short of his career .719.
Would be really fun if he magically developed into an average hitter.
Isn't that basically what he is for a shortstop?
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I was just thinking for a major league baseball player.
Last year, 14 regular SS's were ≥.750 OPS, and 10 were ≥.780.
Russell was 22nd in OPS for SS's with ≥300 PA.
Arizona was the only playoff team whose SS OPS was maybe less than career Russell.
HOpefully Blue's got it and Russell is poised to improve the offense somewhat.
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Obviously that would be nice. But I’m not so sure I’ve seen any signs of development there, despite what the kumbayah bloggers say. What we see with Russell as a hitter might be what we get.
Macahado or not, I think Russell might be gone after this year. The Cubs are comfortable with Baez at SS and they may be ready to move on from Russell.
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I wouldnt be one bit afraid or heartbroken to see Russell go.
Not that I have a problem with him by any means but Im not in love with him.
Javy and Happ can handle SS and 2nd with much more offensive upside.
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Pretty tough criticism re Russell...don't forget what he did in 2016 (at age 22) with less than 500 MLB ABs.
In our WS season, he was a MAJOR reason we won it all and in 525 ABs - 49 XBHs, 21 HRs, 95 RBIs, .738 OPS, very slick SS...and numerous clutch hits in the playoff run! If that season didn't show his tremendous upside, I can't imagine what would.
Last year, he went through a divorce and some tough times personally. Since these guys are human, one can imagine his personal difficulties had a seriously adverse impact on his 2017 play. Off to a tough start re power this year, it's still VERY early and he's still real young...he's a long way from the 3,000 PA mark...give the kid a freaking break!
More importantly, assuming we don't land Machado (there may be a few other interested parties re that guy), it would be REALLY hard to replace his overall value with a combination of Zobrist/Happ or anyone else readily available to us.
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Don’t forget, Ben, if Russell is gone that means we traded him for somebody. Maybe it’s a second baseman with better stick, maybe it’s somebody else that gives us inexpensive production to allow us to sign a FA 2B. If he goes it’s not going to be for free - he has value.
It’s telling that a season with a .738 OPS is cited as a breakout. I have no problem keeping Russell - he’s a very good defensive SS and not a major black hole at the plate, and certainly young enough to take a leap forward as a hitter. But I wouldn’t hesitate to move him in the right deal (which a rental of Machado isn’t). I think playing SS everyday Javy would eventually end up being at least as good as Russell defensively.
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David Freese was a huge Cardinal hero in the playoffs and WS a few years ago. Didn't take the Cards long to jettizon him once they saw him not developing further. They are reputed to have a love relationship with most of their players. We've seen the Cubs can be tough as they did with Fowler and Arrieta, but I think they still suffer from Brockphobia when it comes to trading a youngster.
Do we have shortstops in the pipeline?
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Russel started horribly this year. He currently has a wRC+ of 96 and has been around 120 the last couple of weeks. When I say breakout I’m talking about running a wRC+ of 120. Rusell has a career .160 ISO and is at .116 this year. Javy, who I love,has a career .180 ISO. With the changes he has made that power comes back and .120 wRC+ is easily possible. His zone contact is up and out side zone percentage is down. Those are great things he is doing.
People sell Russell’s defense short on this board. He isn’t flashy like Baez, but he is elite at SS. His UZR/150 ranks behind Simmons, Crawford and Lindor from 2015-2018 at SS. Javy has a career -1.6 UZR/150 because he makes stupid errors and lacks Russell’s range.
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It’s a lot easier to play a consistent SS when you play there every day as opposed to once every couple of weeks.
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Russell was better at 2B too. Javy is fantastic and I love him. I love Russell and Javy up the middle. They are better together. Russell just isn’t as flashy as Javy or have the same loud tools. Russell’s tools are pretty great too. This isn’t a case of either or, it is case of Cubs fans should love both.
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Agree CUBlueJay...the value of TWO strong defensive middle infielders is absolutely HUGE!
It's a key part of the reason our guys won the WS and continue to be a favorite to be there at the end again...our D up the middle is among the very best in baseball...that's a MAJOR plus for our Team!
And it's SO important to remember that age 24 and 2,500 PAs is VERY different from 26 and 3,500+ PAs with most guys who are good enough to start at a young age. Russell is still growing into his adult musculature and his pitch recognition will continue to improve for a while.
I'm just not seeing guys out there who are obvious choices to replace Russell and his upside in the middle infield. However, if there are guys who have as much or more than Russel, I have little doubt that Theo has already identified them and will consider making a move for them.
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It’s Theo’s job to be able to find someone who makes more sense for the club than Russell, if he decides to trade him. I trust him to do that.
It’s not a case of either/or with Baez or Russell, no. But neither is it a case of all or nothing. Having Javy gives us the option to make a move with Russell if it makes sense for the club. I’m perfectly happy having Addison around if it doesn’t- his defense makes him an asset as long as he keeps the OPS in the low 700’s. But let’s not pretend he’s anything other than a mediocre hitter at this point in his career. And whereas Javy has shown linear progression in most important offensive metrics year over year, Russell has not. He still might - but Baez was always getting better, even if he was streaky, when you take the season as a whole. So far, that’s not the case with Russell.
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Obviously that would be nice. .... What we see with Russell as a hitter might be what we get....
....it's SO important to remember that age 24 and 2,500 PAs ..... Russell is still growing into his adult musculature and his pitch recognition will continue to improve for a while....
Russel ... has a wRC+ of 96 and has been around 120 the last couple of weeks. ...I’m talking about running a wRC+ of 120. .....With the changes he has made that power comes back and .120 wRC+ is easily possible. His zone contact is up and out side zone percentage is down. Those are great things he is doing....
I agree with all of these posts. Who knows? Nobody knows, and any of various outcomes are within the scope of possible. Maybe ben is right and he's realizing his adult musculature and is ready to take a jump? Maybe blue is right and he's made some changes, and the good changes are real and are about to kick in, while the loss of power is a fluke and he'll move forward with the old power but the new zone contact? Or maybe deeg is right and what he's been over the last four years may be more or less representative of what he will be?
Any of those directions are possible. He might get better, by a little or maybe significantly so; or maybe he is going to be more or less what he's already been.
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Development isn’t linear. You need to look deeper at the numbers.
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And take off the rose-colored glasses when doing so.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=14106&position=SS&type=battedball&pid2=14106&ss1=2018&se1=2018&ss2=2018&se2=2018&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL
Blue, I checked his spraycharts. My casual observation (and I don't have opportunity to see very many AB's) is that he's been more opposite-field and contact-oriented this season, and less power-pull oriented. I didn't see his HR, but when I've seen him hit the ball in the air, it's tended to be to RF, not to left.
The spray chart supports that observation. I assume fangraphs maybe doesn't update daily, because I'm not sure I'm seeing the HR showing. But the 2018 spray chart doesn't show ANY deep fly balls or deep line drives on the pull side of shortstop, or within the 25% quadrant of the outfield nearest the left-field foul line.
Red line drives or blue fly balls that are modestly deep (ones that won't fall in front of outfielders) seem to be oriented from RF-line to left-center, but nothing very deep to left-field quadrant. (Until the HR).
If you look at the 2017 or 2018 charts, he had a more equal distribution to left field quadrant, and in fact the vast majority of his HR's were "pullside" HR's.
I'm hoping that you are right; that he's made some adjustments to improve his zone contact, and with that has been more opposite-field hitting. But that perhaps as he locks into some good adjustments, that he'll increasingly be able to pull again too, in a healthy way. And will be able to put the bat on the ball and get the bathead around and make some hard contact pull-side. Want to use the whole field, but part of the field is the 25% nearest the pull foul-line, so perhaps if he can recover that, without losing the other gains in contact, you'll get best of both worlds? Of course it's also hypothetically possible that it's one or the other; that the rise in zone contact and decline in power are linked, and that he won't be able to get the power back without compromising some of the zone contact and K-reduction.
It's a long season and a long career. Who knows?
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Theo mentioned that they wanted him to go the other way more and this seems to be a Chili Davis thing and now they are hoping that he brings pack some of the pull power.
His Outside zone swing percentage dropped 4 points from above league average to below league average. His zone contact percentage jumped 6 points while he lowered his zone swing percentage. He’s gotten more selective. His issue earlier was soft contact. The changes he’s made with his plate discipline are more likely to stick with a lower K% than Baez, who is just swing at more pitches in the zone.
Last year sucked for Russell with his personal life and injuries. I have no clue if he can get his life in order and that could certainly play a role in the Cubs looking to replace him. Baseball wise the guy can be a 5 WAR player or better.
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Who was it that used to say that a hitter needs around 3000 professional plate appearances before you'll know what he's really going to be? Steve Stone?
Hasn't seemed to hurt the two Braves kids. They just come up and mash.
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This all makes sense, except that they really want to move Russell.
jhawk, can you elaborate further on this? Why move Russell, specifically? What kind of return do they want?
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jhawk, can you elaborate further on this? Why move Russell, specifically? What kind of return do they want?
100% stems from the domestic issue with his wife last year.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/46853/why-success-of-cubs-lineup-is-personal-to-joe-maddon
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Evidently, Contreras is the only Cub to record 7 extra bases hits over 2 consecutive games in over 100 years.
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Schwarber's wRC+ so far this season (146) is equivalent to Bryant's in 2017.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 22m22 minutes ago
Jason Heyward won't come off the concussion DL when he is eligible on Monday though Joe Maddon says he's progressing in his recovery. He will travel with the team on their upcoming road trip.
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Take your time Jason.
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Amen.
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I don't recall a season with so many teams not trying to compete. The Reds, Marlins, White Sox, Rays, Padres, Rangers, Royals and Orioles aren't just bad at this point, they are horrible. There are very few middle of the road teams. I still can't tell how far over their skis the Pirates are right now, but you could see them sliding back into the awful category at some point as well. Surprisingly, the Dodgers have been awful too with the loss of Seager, Turner and Kershaw. Imagine the Cubs losing Rizzo, Bryant and Lester for an extended stretch. I was just thinking that this season's divisions might not be settled so much by the head to head match ups, but by how the teams do against all the bottom feeders of the league. St Louis is 7-0 against the Reds so far this year, take that away and they are under .500. The Cubs played .500 the first week against the Marlins and the Reds but cleaned up this week, even despite their Sunday collapse. I know feasting on the bottom feeders has always been important in every season, but this year, with so many, I think it might be even more important than ever. I wanted the sweep but I'll take 5 of every 6 against the bad teams for the rest of the year. Mission accomplished this week.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 36s36 seconds ago
Mark Zagunis optioned to Iowa to make room for Darvish coming off flu-bug DL.
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Contreras told not to wear the Venezuelan arm sleeve.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/15/wilson-contreras-venezuela-arm-sleeve-chicago-cubs
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Bryce Harper is hitting .207 with a .780 OPS and 15.9 at-bats per home run since his first 10 games of the season when he was blazing hot. He has a history of starting out hot and settling into somewhat average to good production the rest of the season. He certainly isn't producing like a $40 mil per year player. Considering his injury history, getting outbid by the Yanks or the Dodgers might be the best thing that could happen to the Cubs next offseason.
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I'd much rather see his clown-question responses in a Yankee uniform - Bro
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Harper is running a sub .200 BABIP even though he is crushing the baseball. It's just bad luck. The underlying fundamentals are unreal, with more BBs than Ks and a 44% hard-hit rate.
Give him all the money, Theo.
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Bryce Harper is hitting .207 with a .780 OPS and 15.9 at-bats per home run since his first 10 games of the season when he was blazing hot. He has a history of starting out hot and settling into somewhat average to good production the rest of the season. He certainly isn't producing like a $40 mil per year player. Considering his injury history, getting outbid by the Yanks or the Dodgers might be the best thing that could happen to the Cubs next offseason.
Harper has a .192 BABIP on the year. that doesn't seem really sustainable.
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CBJ has me on ignore :(
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CBJ has me on ignore :(
We all do.
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CBJ has me on ignore :(
Never, just had in open for a long time before I hit post. Damn job.
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This isn't the first year he has tapered off after a fast start. I'm not trying to write his entire season on May 16th by any means, but Bryce Harper wants to be paid as the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout. He has performed as such exactly once. He has missed a significant number of games in 3 of his 6 seasons. I was all for him, but looking closer and considering what he is likely to want as a Boras client, I am not so sure any more.
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Me either.
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I've been wondering for a while (since the trade rumors started) if the Cubs could actually be more interested in Machado. He probably will cost less but has just as strong a track record. And I'm skeptical that there will be any big money teams in on him--none of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Phillies need to priortize improving the left side of their infield.
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Never, just had in open for a long time before I hit post. Damn job.
I told you that Medical School would interfere with the important things in life. You should have flunked out when you had the chance.
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I've been wondering for a while (since the trade rumors started) if the Cubs could actually be more interested in Machado. He probably will cost less but has just as strong a track record. And I'm skeptical that there will be any big money teams in on him--none of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Phillies need to priortize improving the left side of their infield.
Machado's having a huge season. Probably cost an arm and a leg to acquire him.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 12m12 minutes ago
Meanwhile, trainer PJ Mainville joins strength/conditioning czar Tim Buss in the supervision of Heyward's latest drills. After a few sprints in the outfield, Heyward now running the bases.
It's now 11 days since that Sunday night game in St. Louis. Hopefully, that means a rehab assignment.
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Re: Machado:
https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/cubs/heyman-cubs-could-be-landing-spot-for-manny-machado/
The Chicago Cubs will take a look at acquiring superstar shortstop Manny Machado, sources say. Machado was speculated by FRS Sports a few weeks back as a likely candidate for the Cubs, with Addison Russell seen as part of a possible package for the Orioles, and word now is that he is the Cubs’ main target at the deadline.
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No thanks unless they can extend him. I wouldn't want to trade Russell without knowing Machado is staying. But I don't make the decisions.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
David Bote optioned, LHP Randy Rosario promoted from Triple-A Iowa
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If it's close to Russell for Machado straight up, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Russell just hasn't developed much at all since he broke in. On top of that, he doesn't really have that much control left--he'll only be a Cub for three more years after this year (and he's already getting expensive since he was a super two guy). Giving up 3 years of a slightly above average established shortstop just doesn't seem all that painful to me.
Now if the Orioles refuse to give Machado up without a top prospect or two added to Russell, then it would make more sense to walk away.
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No thanks unless they can extend him. I wouldn't want to trade Russell without knowing Machado is staying. But I don't make the decisions.
*If* they could trade Russell for Machado straight up, I'd be fine if they did that. I'd love that idea. (I don't think that's realistic, think the price would be higher and I don't know that the Cubs have anything extra to give, but that's a different discussion.)
1. I'm a big believer in the home-town tie-breaker. *If* you get Machado, and he has a good experience here, that increased the chances that you CAN extend him after the season. Even if that extension isn't agreed to prior to the trade.
2. I'm a huge believer in hitting and offense, and think you need a critical mass of high-end, middle-of-the-order hitters. Russell isn't, Machado might be. Sequencing really good hitters is the way to build a really good offense. Russell doesn't help there; Machado would.
3. Cubs don't look like a World Series team thus far, but things can change, and adding a bat like Machado might help that to become true. They may never have as good a shot at winning big as this year. It might be smart to take a shot while you've got one?
4. Not sure that Russell would be that hard to replace, even if they failed to resign Machado. Can compromise some defense, but if you popped Javy over to SS, it wouldn't seem that hard or expensive to get a 2B who can hit significantly better than Russell. Replacing or upgrading Russell's bat seems very doable.
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I'd trade Russell plus some loose change for Machado without any hesitation.
Hopefully we could extend him and it would take us out of the Harper sweepstakes.
I read something recently where Tom Ricketts said he'd support another big time contract.
Its not that Im hating on Harper as much as Im afraid of his price tag.
I know Machado wont come cheap though.
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If they resign Machado after trading for him they don't lose a draft pick either. If they wait until the off-season they'll lose the first rounder.
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Guessing it would have to be something like Russell, Happ, and Alzolay for Machado even as a rental.
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I think you're overestimating how much rental position players get in trades these days. JD Martinez didn't get a top 100 prospect last summer. Machado is obviously more valuable than Martinez was last year, but not so much more valuable that he'd get two young major leaguers and a top 100 prospect.
Russell plus filler is fair return on just a player value basis, IMO. But I still don't understand why a team that obviously needs to go through a long rebuild would trade for a guy with only three years of service time remaining.
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Orioles ownership is nuts, so who knows.
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That seems too steep but so did Eloy and Cease for a #3 starter so what do I know?
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Since Quintana's first full season in 2013 until the end of last year, he was 6th among MLB pitchers in fWAR, only behind Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, and Price. Quintana was not (and probably still is not) a #3. His track record is a strong #2/borderline ace. Eloy and Cease was a fair deal.
It'll be unfortunate if Quintana never pitches that well again. But at the time, the Cubs were acquiring 3 1/2 years of 28 year old Jon Lester.
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The team hasn't shown that they are a Machado away from being a favorite to go to the WS. The likely result of acquiring Machado would be failing to get to the WS and losing Russell (plus other assets). When Machado signs elsewhere as a FA after this season, where will that leave the Cubs?
Now if they could get Machado to commit in advance to an extension, that changes everything.
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If they resign Machado after trading for him they don't lose a draft pick either. If they wait until the off-season they'll lose the first rounderIf they resign Machado after trading for him they don't lose a draft pick either. If they wait until the off-season they'll lose the first rounder.
If the Orioles trade Machado to anyone he doesn’t cost a draft pick to sign. That said I would give up a late first rounder over Russell 100% of the time.
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The team hasn't shown that they are a Machado away from being a favorite to go to the WS. The likely result of acquiring Machado would be failing to get to the WS and losing Russell (plus other assets). When Machado signs elsewhere as a FA after this season, where will that leave the Cubs?
It leaves them down a league average (or a little better) all around shortstop. That's not that big a deal--the Cubs probably already have another one of those in Baez. It's not like they're selling off Bryant or Rizzo to get him.
It's different if the "other assets" are more than lottery tickets or throw-ins. But I really don't think the Orioles have the leverage at this point to demand much more than Russell.
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It leaves them down a league average (or a little better) all around shortstop. That's not that big a deal--the Cubs probably already have another one of those in Baez. It's not like they're selling off Bryant or Rizzo to get him.
It's different if the "other assets" are more than lottery tickets or throw-ins. But I really don't think the Orioles have the leverage at this point to demand much more than Russell.
I don't think I really agree. If I'm Baltimore, a really bad team, I think I'd like a volume of younger prospect with higher risk but higher potential. I'd prefer several promising minor leaguers with possibilities of being really good, and each with 6.9 years of control; over 3.5 years of a bottom-of-the-order defensive-specialist.
So I kinda think Russell makes way more sense from Cubs end than Baltimore end. Unless they scout him way differently, and think that a change-of-scenery from Cubs and their coaching, and getting him into HR-friendly Camden, and suddenly warning-track fly-outs will turn into HR's + confidence and it will mutually reinforce into 30 HR's.
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Only in the Cubs lineup is a 24 year old with a career wRC+ of 90 a bottom of the order hitter, defensive specialist. He’s on pace for 140 game 3 fWAR season. He isn’t league average and there is still offensive upside in his game.
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Blue, A lot of lineups put below-average hitters in the bottom part of the order. Addison's an overall player, he's not just a hitter; and his defense is really, really good at super-influential position. But AS A HITTER (emphasis, we're talking as a hitter, not as a fielder or the hitting/defense composite....), he's a below average hitter relative to major leaguers in general; he's a below average hitter relative to major league starters; he's a below average hitter relative to starting shortstops.
Why would it be such skewed perspective to figure that a below-average hitter would be situated low in the order? Especially in the AL where they can use a DH, it's not that rare to have average-or-better hitters at each of spots 3-6 in a lineup. Why would you want your 90 hitters in the middle of the lineup?
the argument that he's below average thus far, but he's going to grow into above-averageness later, that's a different argument.
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Quintana as 28 year-old Lester - that’s comedy gold.
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Quintana and Lester were basically identical pitchers for the 3 years before the trade.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-accurately-rate-underrated-jose-quintana/
Quintana was 6th in fWAR from 2013-17; Lester was 7th. There probably aren't two pitchers more similar than Quintana and Lester over the last 5 years.
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Other than last year he’s been wRC+ of 93-94 in the majors. That is barely below average overall and would have been about 15th for SS last year.
I don’t think you can just ignore the defense he brings to the table. Why generally smart people think it is easy to replace a 24 year 3 WAR SS is baffling to me.
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More evidence that 2016 may have been an aberration:
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/how-cubs-compare-themselves-quarter-way-through-season-world-series-2016-darvish-quintana-rizzo
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More evidence that 2016 may have been an aberration:
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/how-cubs-compare-themselves-quarter-way-through-season-world-series-2016-darvish-quintana-rizzo
The real difference is Jake Arreita. offense is relatively on track, its the run prevention that has collapsed... maybe CBJ is right.
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16' had not just Jake Arrieta, but Jake in Cy Young form...and Hendricks / Lester in Cy Young form, too...and #4 and 5 starters who were also darned good that very, very, very special year!!
Don't expect to EVER see SP like that for a Cub team again; however, this year's team can be pretty darned good IF:
* Darvish starts pitching as reasonably projected,
* Quintana regains his command,
* Rizzo starts doing his thing (with a couple other guys picking it up) AND...
...the bullpen remaining strong AND overall good health the rest of the way!
Lots of IFs. Certainly appears it's going to be a grind to win the division this year!!
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No, the pitching hasn't been on a par with the last couple years, but the potential is there. It will take more time to evaluate these trades and signings of the last two years.
As far a Machado is concerned, the Cubs need to add a bat or two in the lineup of guys who can get the bat on the ball in a crunch. Right now, with the game on the line, the season on the line, who do you want to see at the plate when there's a runner on third and there's a desperate need to put the ball in play...who would you want? Zobrist? Rizzo, when he shortens up? I am at a loss who else I would want. They are all rippers.
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is there a site that shows team contact rates?
or a site that shows run distribution by team (ie the standard deviation of run scoring for all teams)
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I would wager, without having the data, that the mean will be high for the cubs, but the std deviation will be high.
I'd wager a team like the Astros and Red Sox have a high mean and low std deviation.
Machado would increase the mean, while reducing that deviation imo.
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...who do you want to see at the plate when there's a runner on third and there's a desperate need to put the ball in play...who would you want? Zobrist? Rizzo, when he shortens up? I am at a loss who else I would want. They are all rippers.
LaStella
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LaStella
Good one, mO
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I would wager, without having the data, that the mean will be high for the cubs, but the std deviation will be high.
I don't know if any site keeps track of this, but I have been curious and have looked at the data for the Cubs over the last three years.
In 2016, the Cubs averaged 4.99 runs per game; the standard deviation was 3.06.
In 2017, the Cubs averaged 5.07 runs per game; the standard deviation was much higher at 3.86.
So far this year, the Cubs are averaging 5.23 runs per game. The standard deviation is even higher at 4.50.
If you just want to look at the extremes:
In 2016, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 12% of the time (19 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 6% of the time (10 games).
In 2017, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 17% of the time (28 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 11% of the time (18 games).
So far this year, the Cubs have scored 0-1 runs 23% of the time (9 games), and they have scored at least 10 runs 20% of the time (8 games).
As an aside...in the 8 games with 10+ runs so far this year, the Cubs have scored a total of 101 runs. They have scored only 108 in their other 32 games. The results seem to point to them becoming much more of an all or nothing team since the World Series year.
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I would wager, without having the data, that the mean will be high for the cubs, but the std deviation will be high.
I'd wager a team like the Astros and Red Sox have a high mean and low std deviation.
Machado would increase the mean, while reducing that deviation imo.
I looked at the Astros vs Cubs last year when this came up. The Astros scored 600+ of their runs last year against sub .500 teams.
is there a site that shows team contact rates?
The Cubs are seventh in the NL at 76.7%, 16th in MLB. In the NL the rankings go Reds (80.7%), Braves (80.60 , Dodgers (77.9), Pirates (77.5), Marlins (77.1), D-backs (76.7).
So the difference between the Cubs and the best team is like 4 out of 100 swings. The vast majority of teams are within 1-3 swings/100 of the Cubs either way.
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I don't know if any site keeps track of this, but I have been curious and have looked at the data for the Cubs over the last three years.
In 2016, the Cubs averaged 4.99 runs per game; the standard deviation was 3.06.
In 2017, the Cubs averaged 5.07 runs per game; the standard deviation was much higher at 3.86.
So far this year, the Cubs are averaging 5.23 runs per game. The standard deviation is even higher at 4.50.
If you just want to look at the extremes:
In 2016, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 12% of the time (19 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 6% of the time (10 games).
In 2017, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 17% of the time (28 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 11% of the time (18 games).
So far this year, the Cubs have scored 0-1 runs 23% of the time (9 games), and they have scored at least 10 runs 20% of the time (8 games).
As an aside...in the 8 games with 10+ runs so far this year, the Cubs have scored a total of 101 runs. They have scored only 108 in their other 32 games. The results seem to point to them becoming much more of an all or nothing team since the World Series year.
Br, this is fantastic. Thank you. I think this is the real problem with whats happened to the Cubs offense... good to see the data actually backs up my anecdotal observation.
in 2016 the cubs total K rate as a team went from 21.1 (2016) to 22.3 (2017). This year its back to 21% but the spread in std dev continues to increase.
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The Cubs are not going to get the fantastic starting pitching that they got in 2016. That means that the offense has to take up the slack, and that has not happened so far. Of course, if we make the postseason, it's always possible for the pitching and offense to get hot for a month.
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NL Central winning percentages from 2016 compared to so far in 2018
Chicago .640 vs .550
Pittsburgh .484 vs .605
Milwaukee .451 vs .591
St. Louis .531 vs .561
Cincinnati .420 vs .341
Are the Cubs not doing as well as in 2018 because they just aren’t as good or is it also due to the other teams, with the exception of Cincinnati, having improved?
Add this to list of possibilities talked about so far and then go with “all of the above”.
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I don't know if any site keeps track of this, but I have been curious and have looked at the data for the Cubs over the last three years.
In 2016, the Cubs averaged 4.99 runs per game; the standard deviation was 3.06.
In 2017, the Cubs averaged 5.07 runs per game; the standard deviation was much higher at 3.86.
So far this year, the Cubs are averaging 5.23 runs per game. The standard deviation is even higher at 4.50.
If you just want to look at the extremes:
In 2016, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 12% of the time (19 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 6% of the time (10 games).
In 2017, the Cubs scored 0-1 runs 17% of the time (28 games), and they scored at least 10 runs 11% of the time (18 games).
So far this year, the Cubs have scored 0-1 runs 23% of the time (9 games), and they have scored at least 10 runs 20% of the time (8 games).
As an aside...in the 8 games with 10+ runs so far this year, the Cubs have scored a total of 101 runs. They have scored only 108 in their other 32 games. The results seem to point to them becoming much more of an all or nothing team since the World Series year.
The sample size for this year is too small to have any meaningful significance. For 2016 and 2017 I'd like to see if 3 to 3.86 is even all that significant.
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So, frequency of scoring 2-9 runs: 82% to 72% to 57%.
Frequency of scoring 0-1: 12% to 17% to 23%.
Interesting numbers, thanks, br.
I'd love to see how those kinds of distributions look league-wide. Especially for playoff teams over the last 5-8 years.
Everybody has some extreme games; but do we have an inordinate amount, relative to playoff-caliber offenses? '
My hypothesis is yes, that the 2017 Cubs already had a somewhat uncommon frequency of "big" games; which made their composite scoring numbers look deceptively good.
The 2018 distribution is really extraordinary, with 8 mega-runs games making composite offensive production look deceptively acceptable. (Would be fun to take the best 8 games away from every offense, and see how the Cubs compared then....)
The early frequency of blowout games (more than triple the mighty 2016 offense) is obviously non-sustainable small-sample stuff, and isn't going to continue for the summer. The harder question is whether the frequency of 0-2-run games is also flukey and won't continue? Or is there a risk that the mega-runs games will settle back towards 6-11%, while the struggles to exceed 2 runs will remain almost as frequent and problematic for the duration?
Whatever, 4 games in Cinci would seem like a good opportunity to find another mega-runs game or two over the weekend. Lets get some runs tonight!
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 6m6 minutes ago
Heyward activated , Rosario optioned
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What kind of right field does Rosario play?
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2017 Astros
0-1- 18 times
10+- 23 times
2- 14 times
They have a cluster of games 0-2 runs. The largest amount is between 3-6 runs and then another cluster of 7+ runs.
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Thanks, Blue. Yeah, that sounds like a much more healthy and natural distribution.
11% 0-1; <20% 0-2; >65% 3-9; 14%>10. That's >65% in the 3-9 range where you can win games without mega-runs. And it seems like a more healthy, natural bell curve.
Thus far, we're getting more than double their frequency of 0-or-1 run games. And actually, our frequency of 0-or-1 (23%) is higher than was their frequency of 0-, 1-, or 2-run games (<20%). And their frequency of 3-9 (>65%) is higher than our frequency of 2-9 (57%).
It's pretty amazing that almost half our games are either all (≥10) or nothing (≤1) games. So amazing that it's certainly not going to continue. Hopefully it changes more by eliminating the 0-1 (or 2-run) games than by reducing the ≥10 frequency.
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1) A 40 game sample size is way too small to draw a meaningful conclusions. The Cubs have been playing good teams and bad teams and little in between.
2) With the Astros they get a benefit of a DH, so I would throw in the 2 run games as a nothing burger. That means the Astros got an all it nothing game 34% of the time last year. That was worse than the Cubs last year. I’m sure if you look at other teams it will be the same. Beating up on bad teams, struggling to score against good teams. That is exactly what the Astros did last year and still won the World Series.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 12m12 minutes ago
No surprise: Randy Rosario added as 26th player for doubleheader
Rosario was just sent down to make room for Jason Heyward's return. Adding a 26th man for a doubleheader must be an exception to the rule that a player has to stay in the minors for 10 days unless it is to take the place of an injured player.
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Betcha he was hiding in his room for 24 hours.
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Almora hurt his leg running the bases Looks like his knee. He is jogging a little, and looks like he will stay in the game for now.
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Rosario looked great in Mesa and he's pitched very well at Iowa. Wonder what he has to do to get an extended look.
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Rosario looked great in Mesa and he's pitched very well at Iowa. Wonder what he has to do to get an extended look.
Probably get traded to Houston.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519/olney-hitters-who-cant-beat-the-heat-getting-left-behind
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The stretch against mostly bad teams starting on May 4 is now over. The Cubs went 9-7. Had they not given three games away to the Cardinals and Reds they would've been 12-4.
The Cubs went 7-0 in blowouts and 2-7 in close games.
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Didn’t the stretch against mostly bad teams start May 7?
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In what world are the Cardinals a “mostly bad team”???
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Didn’t the stretch against mostly bad teams start May 7?
That is the case. However, I had previously mentioned this stretch starting with the Cardinals series because the Cardinals games were 2-game flips in the standings. Had a real chance to make hay and didn't.
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It's easy to forget that ALL the guys who make it to the show are the best of the best of the freaking best. On EVERY team!
There are exactly ZERO guys at the MLB level who can't REALLY play!
It would be really nice, if Cubs could consistently dominate the teams playing below .500, but it seldom works that way.
Cubs have had an amazing run, getting to the NLCS each of the last three seasons...let's hope it continues!
But don't be tempted to think it should be a cake walk, if our guys play well. They will run into all sorts of great play from all sorts of other guys, often on teams way below .500.
Because all those other guys can really play, too, even tho' we may wish Cubs had a monopoly on great players!.
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"There are exactly ZERO guys at the MLB level who can't REALLY play!"--ben
Obviously you don't follow the Today's Game topic.
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https://twitter.com/laurencomitor/status/998668328288903169
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https://twitter.com/laurencomitor/status/998668328288903169
Well, now that's interesting.
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https://twitter.com/laurencomitor/status/998668328288903169
Well, now that's interesting.
Yeah I'd say it'd be special if Machado won a World Series with Almora too ... preferably in a Cubs uniform.
All right Theo, get 'er done!!!
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For anyone who doesn't know (I didn't until I read the replies to the tweet), Machado and Almora were close growing up to the point that they supposedly call each other family.
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CHICAGO -- Manny Machado and Albert Almora Jr. played together in the backyard when they were kids, and the cousins dreamed about winning a World Series together.
http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=23565923
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Interesting would be if the Cubs had pieces to outbid others for him.
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We might as well dream big - what if the Cubs were able to add both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper?
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It's wonderful if Machado wants to win a WS with cousin Al. Let him do it next season after he signs as a FA. No more rentals.
Also, I've yet to see anyone make a compelling case that the Cubs have anything to offer that would make it worth Baltimore's while.
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As I was looking at the numbers I was trying to think of a year in which a guy with Rosario's stuff and performance would be squeezed out of a spot in the Cub's bullpen. Hancock has done nothing to deserve a demotion. Strop, Morrow, Cishek and Duensing have been as good as could be hoped. Edwards had a little rough stretch but for the most part has been excellent as well. Is this the best Cubs bullpen of our lifetime? At this point I can't think of any better. Of course, it's a long season and it's still early, but this is fun.
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The pen has been extensively utilized already, and will be leaned on heavily as the season progresses. They will need to cycle multiple relievers from the farm over the course of the season. Rosario will get opportunities down the road for sure.
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They'll have to use the 10 day DL, only Hancock can be sent down right now.
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Wilson with a hangnail? A blister? An oblique strain?
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Here's a nice piece on the guy GoBlue likes to refer to as Kris f'n Bryant (who leads all qualified National League hitters with a 1.010 OPS, has the highest line drive %age and lowest strikeout %age of his career). He's not just immensely talented, he's a student of hitting who wants to improve continually (and who is pretty much doing that).
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23566202/kris-bryant-bucking-strikeout-trend-happy-it
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Thanks Ron! Great article...what a player Kris Freaking Bryant is!!
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There are only 10 position players in the NL with a higher WAR than Albert Almora.
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Don't forget about his struggles again right handed pitching in the minors, though.
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There are only 10 position players in the NL with a higher WAR than Albert Almora.
Is Ian Happ one of them?
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Happ's WAR is ranked in the 80's just behind new Cardinals wunderkind Ty O'Neil but not far behind Bryce Harper.
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There are only 10 position players in the NL with a higher WAR than Albert Almora.
Does that take his average foot speed into account?
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The Cubs pitching staff is 2nd in MLB and 1st in the NL with a 3.28 ERA.
They also have scored the 4th most runs in MLB and 2nd in the NL.
See you in October.
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Our Pythagorean W-L is 30-15. These things have a way of evening out over time.
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Happ in May: .283-450-739-1.189.
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Just how bad has the Cubs starting rotation been?
The bullpen in 70 less innings has more fWAR.
The top 3 fWAR pitchers on the team are Marrow, Edwards and Strop.
Tommy LaStella has produced or tied the starting pitchers in fWAR except Hendrix who is .1 fWAR ahead of him.
Bryant, Almora, Schwarber, Contreras, Zobrist, Happ, Baez have individually produced more fWAR or tied the entire rotation in fWAR. Russell is 0.1 fWAR behind the rotation.
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I think Chatwood is an easy fix if they just study film and reduce the fidgeting that breaks total concentration. Watch his head. It might be a good idea, Tyler, to focus on your target. Luis Tiant, you ain't.
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Just how bad has the Cubs starting rotation been?....
If it stays this bad, the Cubs aren't going to be a great WS team, that's for sure.
But I think the hope is that things will shake out and they'll become more consistent.
*They've each made 9 starts, that's not a huge sample size, and a couple of bad starts can blow up the numbers.
Looking at ERA, after Q's good start and now Darvish with two consecutive effective starts, both of those guys are under 5 ERA.
Nothing stays the same, and pitchers routinely decline. Darvish and Q may just be over-the-hill guys and are going to remain as crummy as they've been thus far, it's not impossible. But, given their history of relative effectiveness, it's plausible that their 9 starts in 2018 are less predictive than their career output. Maybe both will end up pitching in the <4 ERA range for the remainder of the season.
I wonder if WAR isn't the best perspective? WAR is a volume stat. These are all 5-6 innings guys, no 200-inning guys in this bunch. That's not great for WAR, but *IF* the quality of the 5-6 innings became more consistently good, it might still work for having a really good team. 5-6 usually solid innings by rotation; if the 3-4 innings picked up by bullpen are effective; and if the offense is scoring runs.
*Chatwood and Yu are too wild and take too many pitches to be 6-7 inning guys.
*Lester, Q, Hendricks are all limited stuff finesse pitchers, so they all need to nibble. Lester and Q are going to run a lot of long, long counts.
*So we're looking at a lot of 5-6 inning guys.
*Having a really good, deep pen also enables starters to frequently get pulled after 5-6 innings, when the situation calls for it. That's a good thing.
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I think Chatwood is an easy fix if they just study film and reduce the fidgeting that breaks total concentration. Watch his head. It might be a good idea, Tyler, to focus on your target. Luis Tiant, you ain't.
Hope you're right. Man, his stuff is really really good. Can you imagine if Hendricks or Q had stuff like that?
Heh heh, maybe Coloardo helped him, walk-wise? :):) Perhaps his former walk-rate was lower because the ball didn't grip and move as much in Denver, so balls that are darting out of the strike zone for walks now wouldn't have moved as much and would have stayed in strike zone there? Pitchers always complain about how they don't get the movement there; but certainly more movement can lead to more walks.....
But yeah, I'm optimistic with you. The guy has such good stuff, and while he's always been badly wild, it's never been like this. I expect this will become less exaggerated of a problem sooner or later.
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Yeah I'd say it'd be special if Machado won a World Series with Almora too ... preferably in a Cubs uniform.
All right Theo, get 'er done!!!
Machado's stats this year are almost as impressive as Soriano's stats were the year before the Cubs signed him.
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There are only 10 position players in the NL with a higher WAR than Albert Almora.
I'm really confused by this and not seeing it anywhere.
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I think Chatwood is an easy fix if they just study film and reduce the fidgeting that breaks total concentration. Watch his head. It might be a good idea, Tyler, to focus on your target. Luis Tiant, you ain't.
I hope so, but muscle memory is hard to break. I haven't been on a mound in 20 years and I'd bet my mechanics would be pretty close to what I did in high school.
Just look at Heyward. If he'd quit bringing the bat in then out he'd be a better hitter.
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If it stays this bad, the Cubs aren't going to be a great WS team, that's for sure.
But I think the hope is that things will shake out and they'll become more consistent.
I think the rotation is about to turn for the better and this isn't an argument for future success. If we are looking at for why the Cubs record is what it is, WAR is a real good indictator. The rotation has been by far the worst part of the team.
Has the offense been inconsistent? Yes. Most offenses are inconsistent and struggle against good pitching. That is baseball and no amount of super starts is going to change this offense. The big problem with the offense is Rizzo having a .650 OPS. Walks, power, BABIP everything is down.
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Both the offense and the starters have been shaky. I am confident that the starting pitching will improve as the season progresses. I fear that the offensive problems will persist.
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Cubs position players in MLB are
#1 in fWAR, #3 in wRC+, #3 in wOBA, #4 in runs, #3 Def value, #1 in UZR/150, #3 in DRS
Cubs starters are
#24 in fWAR, #11 in ERA, #22 in FIP, #26 in IP,
Cubs bullpen is
#11 in fWAR, #4 in ERA, #23 in FIP, #13 in IP.
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I'm really confused by this and not seeing it anywhere.
Down to nine players now.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/nl/sort/WARBR/order/true
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Both the offense and the starters have been shaky. I am confident that the starting pitching will improve as the season progresses. I fear that the offensive problems will persist.
That's my perspective, too. The rotation has been really bad, but I think that might sort itself out. The offensive problems, with situational hitting, with really bad games, I think that might well persist.
Blue, I'm not sure if I ever re-posted after you showed some scoring distribution for Houston compared to the Cubs. The statistics did NOT support your view that Houston had coparably as many "bad" games offensively as the Cubs. The cubs offense has >20% of it's game with <2 runs. Last season, using your numbers, Houston had <20% of it's games with <3 runs. So they got ≥3 runs over 80% of it's games. While we can't even score 2 runs as often as they scored 3.
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I've been thinking, maybe instead of going for a hitter like Machado, they need to find a personality/presence like Grandpa Rossy or Fowler. I think the RISP issues are due to the hitters pressing. Having somebody in the dugout that can keep the guys loose would help.
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Blue, I'm not sure if I ever re-posted after you showed some scoring distribution for Houston compared to the Cubs. The statistics did NOT support your view that Houston had coparably as many "bad" games offensively as the Cubs. The cubs offense has >20% of it's game with <2 runs. Last season, using your numbers, Houston had <20% of it's games with <3 runs. So they got ≥3 runs over 80% of it's games. While we can't even score 2 runs as often as they scored 3.
Finally found what I was looking for
The Astros against <.500 teams in 2017
83-46 708 runs
The Astros against >.500 teams
18-15 188-145 (40% of those runs came against the Twins in a 6 game series)
The Cubs in 2017 >.500 tems
35-35 297 runs
The Cubs against <.500 teams
57-35 525 runs
The Astros played 79.6% of their games against <.500 teams, the Cubs played 56.8% of their games against <.500 teams. Adjust for that and the DH and you likely see the difference.
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Down to nine players now.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/nl/sort/WARBR/order/true
ESPN must be handing out some amazing defensive bonus's for that list to make sense.
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Fangraphs has him 17th in the NL player list.
The Cubs have 8 in the top 35.
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ESPN must be handing out some amazing defensive bonus's for that list to make sense.
Don't know about the list as a whole but Baseball Reference has the same numbers for Cubs players.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2018.shtml
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ESPN must be handing out some amazing defensive bonus's for that list to make sense.
That is BR WAR.
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Down to nine players now.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/nl/sort/WARBR/order/true
Thank you! Somehow I missed the NL-only part of your original post. Reading fail.
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Regarding the distribution of runs for the Cubs, I'm fully with CBJ on this. Current year results are too-small-sample-size to be relevant, and last year, the Cub distribution of runs was completely in sync with the top offensive teams in the game:
(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-media-theathletic-production/app/uploads/2018/05/22101600/Screen-Shot-2018-05-21-at-8.17.25-PM-1024x870.png)
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Where people feel like the Cubs are feast-or-famine in comparison to other top offenses, I think that's a product of two things:
1) Being too-familiar with Cubs and not-familiar-enough with other teams
2) The current high-K, 3 true outcomes environment
Re: the 2nd point, baseball is really pushing to the extremes on pitcher velocity, hr-rate, low number of balls in play, etc., and I think that's a driver of some of the extremes in offensive performance. Regardless of whether you think this is a good or bad thing, the point stands that the Cubs' distribution is in line with the top 3rd of offenses in baseball.
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Number 1 is a large factor...
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Thanks CBJ and Tico...very interesting information that does explain a lot.
Even with that dose of reality, it's always helpful to me to hear Theo talking about how unpredictable and frustrating MLB can often be. Sandy Alderson always has said the same. Billy Beane usually can't take watching games (without tearing up what's in his office etc.).
As Cub fans, our expectations are now high (probably unrealistically so). And, rather often then, particularly against good teams with good pitching, our expectations are unmet...which is frustrating.
In a way, it was so much easier following the Cubs during the re-build...when we were mostly following our young guys, who were eating up minor-league competition. Whole lot harder to dominate consistently at the MLB level.
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Thanks, tico, that's exactly what I hoped to see! Beautiful! Very helpful.
1. Confirms that the Cubs distribution is typical.
2. Confirms that this year's small sample is really atypical. For <2-run games, Cubs at 23% of games versus normal 14%. Flukishly high in complete-shut-down games.
3. Using your graph, while the 2017 Cubs were similar, you still do see them above-average in 0, 1, and 2-run games (15% above-average in terms of <3-run shut-down games). (And all their 13-17-run games are above-average as well. About a dozen games under in the 3-6-run heart of the bell curve.)
Thanks, really helpful!
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ESPN must be handing out some amazing defensive bonus's for that list to make sense.
Worth noting that by their formula, Lorenzo Cain is the best player in the NL.
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Worth noting that by their formula, Lorenzo Cain is the best player in the NL.
Again, thats Baseball Reference WAR
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Fangraphs has him in the top 10 too. wRC+ 133 and elite defense in CF. Fangraphs has Brandon Belt as #1 so far.
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By those same metrics Happ is already a -.5 dWAR. Has he really regressed that much in one season?
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Defensive WAR is not reliable this early in the season, in that it takes more of a sample to get a meaningful measure.
As statcast stuff is further developed that will change, but we’re still in the early stages of that.
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Yes, and some would argue that it’s not especially reliable over the course of a whole season. And since it’s those metrics driving the WAR category showing Cain and Almora as the 1st and 10th best position players in the NL, a little salt is in order.
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I prefer fWAR to bWAR, as fWAR is usually more conservative on defense.
That said, both guys are near the top of the fWAR leaderboard, too, because when you play elite CF defense (which the eye test easily confirms for both Cain and Almora) while hitting 20-30% better than league average, that is absolutely a tremendously valuable player.
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Well I don’t think anyone is arguing that Cain isn’t really good defensively and Almora shouldn’t be an argument either. Currently they rank 19th and 30th in wRC+ in the National Leavue amount qualified hitters. Is it really a surprise they are highly ranked in WAR?
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Regarding the distribution of runs for the Cubs, I'm fully with CBJ on this. Current year results are too-small-sample-size to be relevant, and last year, the Cub distribution of runs was completely in sync with the top offensive teams in the game:
(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-media-theathletic-production/app/uploads/2018/05/22101600/Screen-Shot-2018-05-21-at-8.17.25-PM-1024x870.png)
What article or data source is this from? Can the data be shown as vs all teams/top 15/top 10/ top 5/ Top 3?
If the Std deviation in the data sets is not that great from top 20 to top 10 its an arbitrary cut off.
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If the Std deviation in the data sets is not that great from top 20 to top 10 its an arbitrary cut off.
Completely disagree.
The question is whether or not the Cubs’ offense is truly a good offense or a crappy, smoke and mirrors con job that only beats up on bad teams. In order to answer the question, we’re comparing the Cubs’ performance to the rest of the top 10 offenses in baseball.
The Cubs’ 2017 distribution tracks so closely to the top 10 offenses in 2017 that it may as well be the mean distribution. Given that the Cubs’ results are basically the mean of the top 10, they either have a strong offense, or every team in baseball is a smoke and mirrors con job. Trying to hack and slash the data further is just veering into confirmation bias territory.
The above graph came from an article in the Athletic.
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OTOH I cant help but notice our supposed 4th best starting pitcher Jon Lester has the best ERA of any of our starters and it's over a full run better than the next one in line [Hendricks].
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I think Dusty likes Lester. I do too. He has joined Hendricks in not getting enough respect by some Cub fans.
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OTOH I cant help but notice our supposed 4th best starting pitcher Jon Lester has the best ERA of any of our starters and it's over a full run better than the next one in line [Hendricks].
But his velocity is down a tick!
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And he can't make the throw to 1st
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What article or data source is this from?
Looks like a Sharma piece on the Athletic from a couple of days ago.
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Machado update: orioles are fielding calls and it’s more than just the cubs, who are said to have what it takes despite thinning prospect ranks (6 more teams r mentioned here). The biggest issue? Will Angelos allow any deal? “50-50,” guesses one person.--Jon Heyman on Twitter
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The Cubs have thinning prospect ranks like Telly Savalas had thinning hair.
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On Schwarber's defense:
https://baseballinfosolutions.wordpress.com/2018/05/25/how-much-has-kyle-schwarber-improved-on-defense/
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Just too stir things up a bit, here is Jesse Rogers' take on the Cubs' feast or famine offense.
"But let's discuss those 23 games in which the Cubs scored three or fewer. It seems like a lot. It's the reason for consternation among Cubs fans, but it's not nearly as bad as other teams in the NL -- other contending teams.
"For example, the Arizona Diamondbacks have scored three or fewer 28 times, while the Washington Nationals have done so 26 times. Those Colorado Rockies, who play at Coors Field? They've scored fewer than four runs 25 times this season. The Cubs' opponent this weekend, the San Francisco Giants, have achieved that mark one more time than the Cubs. In fact, the Cubs rank in the lower half of the NL in scoring three or fewer runs in a game this season."
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23595752/cubs-offense-not-need-splashy-fix-badly-think
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On Schwarber's defense:
https://baseballinfosolutions.wordpress.com/2018/05/25/how-much-has-kyle-schwarber-improved-on-defense/
Thanks for sharing. Encouraging stuff.
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On Schwarber's defense:
https://baseballinfosolutions.wordpress.com/2018/05/25/how-much-has-kyle-schwarber-improved-on-defense/
Also from the BIS blog:
Albert Almora, Chicago Cubs
Albert Almora vaulted up the Defensive Runs Saved rankings on Wednesday — literally. His home run robbery against the Braves upped his total to six runs saved defensively, tied for second among center fielders.
Impressive catches have been Almora’s game this season. He leads all outfielders with nine Good Fielding Plays, all on fly ball or line drive catches.
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Very cool.
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Gimenez up, Caratini down. Effren Navarro out.
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Darvish to DL, Rosario called up. Chatwood starting tomorrow.
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The #Cubs today placed RHP Yu Darvish on the 10-day DL (retroactive to May 23) with right triceps tendonitis and recalled LHP Randy Rosario from @IowaCubs.
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How long before Darvish needs more surgery?
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Darvish getting an MRI, Cubs are “not concerned.” Luke Ferrell might be getting scratched from his Iowa start today.
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Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112 6m6 minutes ago
#Cubs make it official that Montgomery starts tomorrow afternoon in Pittsburgh.
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Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112 6m6 minutes ago
#Cubs make it official that Montgomery starts tomorrow afternoon in Pittsburgh.
This will go well.
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Darvish getting an MRI, Cubs are “not concerned.” Luke Ferrell might be getting scratched from his Iowa start today.
Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112 6m6 minutes ago
#Cubs make it official that Montgomery starts tomorrow afternoon in Pittsburgh.
Luke Farrell did not pitch for Iowa today.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 41m41 minutes ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Luke Farrell from @IowaCubs. RHP Justin Hancock has been optioned to Triple-A.
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After 50 games, Cub offensive stats look very good overall and our pitching stats do as well (thanks to the bullpen).
We've certainly underperformed our numbers in W/L, but a VERY long way to go!
Some of the key CUB offensive numbers relative to all MLB teams:
4th in BA, .260 (Brewers are .248, Cards .240)
1st in OBP .343 (Brewers .316, Cards .317)
T 3 in SLG .431 (Brewers .409, Cards .388)
3rd in OPS .774 (Brewers .725, CArds .705)
Some pitching numbers, CUB numbers still better than key competitors in most categories - even with 3 lousy starters so far...of course, thanks to Chatwood's millions of walks, we are a bit worse in WHIP)
.330 ERA (Brew .346, Cards .357)
.219 BA against (Brew .226, Cards .240)
.128 WHIP (Brew .122, Cards .126)
Brewers and Cards will be healthier over next 50 games (Cards will get Reyes back soon), but if we can figure out our starting pitching and keep the bats warm, one would think we would gain ground...unless this is one of those years for Brewers.
One never knows.
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Great post Ben, thanks.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 28m28 minutes ago
Chatwood said taking ball out of glove sooner and shortening his stride were points of emphasis during side session
It’s been said that Tyler Chatwood’s complicated motion gets out of sync when he starts it. Maybe he needs something like a forward press in golf. Ryan Dempster’s glove twitch might be worth a try.
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I would agree that Chatwood's problems begin when he takes the ball out of his mitt.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 28m28 minutes ago
Chatwood said taking ball out of glove sooner and shortening his stride were points of emphasis during side session
It’s been said that Tyler Chatwood’s complicated motion gets out of sync when he starts it. Maybe he needs something like a forward press in golf. Ryan Dempster’s glove twitch might be worth a try.
Not trying for an ITYS, but that's what I posted for the past two weeks. Look at film. He's thinking about things that should be natural. He's breaking his momentum and his concentration whenever he separates his hands. There's no smoothness or ability to repeat.
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There is a certain logic which leads you to think that no announcement on Darvish yet probably isn’t good.
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Yeah, this radio silence can't be good.
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Carl's Jr to the DL with shoulder inflammation (yikes!).
Cory Mazzoni gets the call
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The timing of Darvish's injury suggests he'll miss 1-2 more starts. That means 1-2 more starts for Montgomery, but it also means 1-2 starts to assess Chatwood. If Monty is good again and Chatwood continues to walk a man per inning, the Cubs might have a tough decision when Yu comes back.
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The timing of Darvish's injury suggests he'll miss 1-2 more starts. That means 1-2 more starts for Montgomery, but it also means 1-2 starts to assess Chatwood. If Monty is good again and Chatwood continues to walk a man per inning, the Cubs might have a tough decision when Yu comes back.
Actually Deeg, given the description you give, I don't think it will be a tough decision at all.
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It will in the sense that Chatwood is making a lot of money...
We also may have our answer to all those "Why is Yu throwing so many 4-seamers and cutters?" questions.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 17m17 minutes ago
Maddon wanted to pitch CJ another inning last night but he said he couldn’t keep going. Going to need a couple weeks
I don't like the sound of that.
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Whatever happened to Eddie Butler? He got off to a great start with that game in Miami, then had what sounded like a very minor injury a couple weeks into the season. Then he has never been mentioned again.
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Two more mentions and he gets activated. I think that's how it works.
Probably best if we never speak of him again.
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https://t.co/ah0L7gLLLB?amp=1
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Good grief. I hope we're not being Phillie or Cardinal fans in behavior.
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Not sure Darvish has the type of personality for this team's fan base. Not the place to be if you're sensitive to what people are saying.
I thought about that notion when Ohtani was leaning towards less stressful environments out west.
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Darvish is making a fool out of himself. Worry about yourself and your performance and not what fans are tweeting about you.
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The more money you make the more you open yourself up to criticism.
If Jason Heyward was making the league minimum we'd be talking about how valuable his defense was in the late innings.
I still cant **** about Darvish because I was all for signing him just like everybody else here was.
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I don't know how Darvish is "making a fool out of himself" when he hasn't publicly said anything about all this. It's coming from Gimenez, not Darvish.
Should he be less sensitive? Probably - but that's hardly the same thing. And while I was trolling Twitter for news about the MRI, I was pretty shocked at the degree of bile (and sometimes racism) in a lot of the comments.
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Well then Gimenez is portraying him is a poor light. Darvish basically needs to realize that the vast majority of fans are behind him and that getting healthy and pitching up to his ability will solve the problem with the remaining fans.
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Ballplayers have feelings, too. That doesn't make them fools or weaklings.
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Rogers Hornsby was my manager, and he called me a talking pile of pigshit. And that was when my parents drove all the way down from Michigan to see me play the game. And did I cry?
Suck it up buttercup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M8szlSa-8o
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Yeah, that response is on about the level I’d expect.
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MLB players are unbelievable athletes and extremely tough-minded, dedicated people or they wouldn't have gotten where they are.
AND they are also human beings...like the rest of us in that respect.
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MLB players are unbelievable athletes and extremely tough-minded, dedicated people or they wouldn't have gotten where they are.
AND they are also human beings...like the rest of us in that respect.
well, there IS Otto.
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And while I was trolling Twitter for news about the MRI, I was pretty shocked at the degree of bile (and sometimes racism) in a lot of the comments.
Shocked about bile and racism on twitter? Aside from breaking news, that's kind of twitter's "thing". Horrible, horrible platform.
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Shocked about bile and racism on twitter? Aside from breaking news, that's kind of twitter's "thing". Horrible, horrible platform.
ha. Tell me one person who has ever said, "I got a great job because of my tweet!" Sports stars, politicians, actors...lost jobs, big fines, ridicule, the result of twitter. I don't get it either.
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The Cubs don't hit with RISP:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/31/cubs-continue-to-rake-with-the-bases-empty-and-um-about-those-other-times/
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ha. Tell me one person who has ever said, "I got a great job because of my tweet!" Sports stars, politicians, actors...lost jobs, big fines, ridicule, the result of twitter. I don't get it either.
Justin Halperin, the guy who got a TV show and a couple books from his "**** my Dad Says" twitter account.
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LOL I think the guys getting fired, fined, and disrespected still outnumber the guys getting jobs.
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Cool article on Tommy LaStella and the art of pinch hitting. LaStella leads the majors in pinch hits and walks with a .548 OPS as a pinch hitter. The highest OBP for a pinch hitter with a minimum of 40 at-bats in a season is .542, achieved by Gates Brown of the Detroit Tigers in 1968.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23673207/how-baseball-best-pinch-hitter-delivers-bench
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There has been an argument here about the extent to which the Cubs' offense has been bad so far this season.
The Cubs enter play on Saturday leading the National League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging pct. The last time they ended a season leading the league in all 3 offensive categories was 1937. In the modern era (since 1920) they've been on top in all 3 just twice, in '37 and 1931.
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-40021578-4
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Just a thought for your day: The Cubs rank first in the NL in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. 2 overall runs behind the Braves with 3 games in hand.
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Just FWIW, the Cubs are 12th, 6th, and 13th, and 13th in the NL in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS respectively when hitting with RISP.
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Not getting much discussion, but Morrow has been really, really good. Not much drama, throwing 97-98 consistently, showing last season was no fluke. 98 with control is a nice base for a closer to build on, and he's actually relying a lot more on 4-seamers than he did last season so Morrow should have another gear he can engage when the games get critical.
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This is five days old now but it hashes out the Cubs' rotation issues and there's also an extremely interesting look at Baez' lack of patience.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/29/cubs-yu-darvish-ohtani-pitching-javier-baez
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I think this is a good description of the state of the Cubs offense from Len Kasper.
Len Kasper
@LenKasper
Have Cubs struggled w/men in scoring position? Yes. Is it something they talk about improving? Yes. Is this a good offense? YES YES YES. Lead majors in batting avg/OBP, lead NL in runs/game (5.29) & slugging. Room for improvement for already terrific group.
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Selective stats. They actually prove the case for those concerned about the RISP shortfalls. They are that good a team, so what's the deal? It's not just hitting with RISP, it's making any kind of contact with runners on. Ron, try hanging with some non-Cub fans and sources; you'll find a different perspective. Go Cubs!
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Cubs are now 10 games over .500. With the Brewers loss they are only 2 games back and tied in the loss column. 4 game sweeps sure help in the standings!
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The Cubs are 12-4 when Yu Darvish is on the disabled list this season.
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The Cubs have now scored the most and given up the fewest runs in the NL. They also have the highest run differential by far.
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I see Dusty is mining Twitter for witty asides now.
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Yes I am Deeg.
Lol
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https://sports.yahoo.com/love-first-sight-why-cubs-013750308.html
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Many smart moves and a few mistakes by this administration... But one of the best things they did was tune out the peanut gallery calling for Baez to be traded and trust in his massive potential. He's a unique player, and you don't give up on guys like that.
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Agreed re Baez...the front office AND Joe always seemed to understand what Javy could be.
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It will in the sense that Chatwood is making a lot of money...
We also may have our answer to all those "Why is Yu throwing so many 4-seamers and cutters?" questions.
The goal is to win games. If it appears pitching Chatwood provides a better chance of that than pitching anyone else, then they should pitch Chatwood. If if appears pitching Montgomery provides a better chance of that than pitching anyone else, then they should pitch Montgomery. If it appears pitching a rookie being paid the league minimum, then they should pitch that guy.
Maddon and the rest of the Theocracy seem to have a good handle on what the goal is, and also of how to achieve it. Deciding who should be on the field in any particular game based on how much is already committed to paying that player is not the way to achieve the goal.
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Cool article on Tommy LaStella and the art of pinch hitting. LaStella leads the majors in pinch hits and walks with a .548 OPS as a pinch hitter. The highest OBP for a pinch hitter with a minimum of 40 at-bats in a season is .542, achieved by Gates Brown of the Detroit Tigers in 1968.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23673207/how-baseball-best-pinch-hitter-delivers-bench
Brown was phenomenal that year, a year when the rest of MLB pretty much wasn't able to hit anything. For context, he had an OPS+ of 234 that year.... though he only had 104 plate appearances.
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Who holds the Cubs record for the most pinch hits in a season. I think that years ago it was somewhere around 22, but I don't remember who held it. I don't think the Cubs have had any outstanding pinch hitters over the past two decades. My recollection is Thad Bosley, but I don't have any idea of the year.
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La Stella has also made me think of Bad Thad. He was on the '84 team if I remember correctly.
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Who holds the Cubs record for the most pinch hits in a season. I think that years ago it was somewhere around 22, but I don't remember who held it. I don't think the Cubs have had any outstanding pinch hitters over the past two decades. My recollection is Thad Bosley, but I don't have any idea of the year.
I remember Bosley from my childhood days of following the Cubs. And then maybe Richie Hebner?
I do feel like we had one other more recent decent one, but can’t come up with anyone.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Lenny Harris?
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Would be fun to see Heyward continue this hit steak into a career year. Both for what it would mean for the 2018 Cubs and for a possible opportunity out of that horrific contact.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/the-cubs-may-be-the-best-team-in-the-nl/c-279902536
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Dwight Smith?
Matt Stairs?
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Would be fun to see Heyward continue this hit steak into a career average year.
Fixed that for you...
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Dave Hansen?
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Would be fun to see Heyward continue this hit steak into a career year. Both for what it would mean for the 2018 Cubs and for a possible opportunity out of that horrific contact.
Heyward’s not opting out, so we should just put that out of our minds.
I mean, if he’s peak Bonds from here on out, then maybe, but it would take performance that good, because his past years were so bad relative to expectations.
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For every Theocracy there's an Idiocracy. If Heyward were to have a great year, somebody somewhere would give him a huge contract. Think about some of the mind bogglers we've had in the past few years. Even with us, would Brandon Morrow gotten as good a deal without last year's run with the Dodgers? Even with us, Soriano comes to mind. BTW: several articles today are heaping praise on Chili Davis for Heyward's turn around.
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For every Theocracy there's an Idiocracy. If Heyward were to have a great year, somebody somewhere would give him a huge contract. Think about some of the mind bogglers we've had in the past few years. Even with us, would Brandon Morrow gotten as good a deal without last year's run with the Dodgers? Even with us, Soriano comes to mind. BTW: several articles today are heaping praise on Chili Davis for Heyward's turn around.
WAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY too early to call this a turnaround.
Heyward’s current slash line is basically identical to last year’s, and it’s taken a massive hot streak since coming off the concussion DL just to get back to last year’s level. If you peer under the hood there are a couple things that look different, including a marginally higher hard-hit rate, and a substantial shift in his GB/FB mix. It’s that GB/FB shift that has me mildly encouraged for the future, but so far, from a results perspective, he’s been 2017 Heyward.
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Read again: SEVERAL ARTICLES, not CurtOne are calling it a turnaround.
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Sure, sure, sure, Mr. Backpedal ;)
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Heyward's numbers are almost indistinguishable from last year. .261 vs .259 (average); .720 vs .715 (OPS); .327 vs .326 (OBP); .392 vs .389 (SL). HR's are down some, he's at 3 this year and hit 11 last, so his pace is modestly diminished.
One that's improved is his OPS+: 91 vs 84 (vs 68 in 2016). Is that a seasonal-effect thing, that everybody is expected to hit worse in spring than summer?
I recall last spring, he hit several HR's in Cincinnati early, and I thought he looked more free and aggressive and balanced; there was considerable optimism that the coaching was clicking.
Hopefully he's going to end up better and better this year, and sustainably so.
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Heyward's numbers are almost indistinguishable from last year. .261 vs .259 (average); .720 vs .715 (OPS); .327 vs .326 (OBP); .392 vs .389 (SL). HR's are down some, he's at 3 this year and hit 11 last, so his pace is modestly diminished.
One that's improved is his OPS+: 91 vs 84 (vs 68 in 2016). Is that a seasonal-effect thing, that everybody is expected to hit worse in spring than summer?
I recall last spring, he hit several HR's in Cincinnati early, and I thought he looked more free and aggressive and balanced; there was considerable optimism that the coaching was clicking.
Hopefully he's going to end up better and better this year, and sustainably so.
FB/HR% has dropped from 14% last year to 12% this year, so HR are down league wide and that has dropped OPS league wide as well. 2018 OPS in the NL is .715, last year it was .748
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It’s a turnaround. A two-week turnaround. Who knows what will happen for the rest of the season? The peripherals look modestly improved, and the truth is Heyward’s numbers last year weren’t that far off his career averages. If you could add 30 OPS points to last season’s Heyward, that’s basically the guy you gave the huge contract to.
I don’t think there’s any way Heyward is going to opt out, so I don’t think there’s much point wasting time debating that. Heyward with his defense is probably a 3 WAR player with a .750 OPS, and the Rickettses have plenty of money.
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AND Heyward was a major player in Game 7 of our World Championship! And the Ricketts Family has plenty of money.
It's all good.
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If you want to talk about a turnaround, Rizzo at the end of April had a slash line of .154/.258/.231/.489.
He is now at .251/.356/.435/.790.
His slash line since the end of April has been .317/.391/.608/.999.
Even thru April, his K rate was only 20.3%. Since April it has been 10%.
Quite a turnaround from Rizzo.
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And much needed.
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For those who follow such things, Wllson Contreras is ranked #93 (dead last) in framing this season according to Baseball Prospectus. While framing metrics are certainly inexact, when someone is as consistently bad as Contreras has been you have to think there's something to it.
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I think instead of "pitch framing" they should call it "fooling the umpire," which is what it is. Then let's talk about automating the strike zone.
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Until they do automate, having a catcher who's good at whatever meaningless semantic term you use seems like it's pretty important.
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I wasn't disagreeing with your point. It's a bit surprising, because his numbers weren't bad when he came up (IIRC), but that's probably just due to the weakness of the metric. You know they're working with him on it.
I don't think it's a meaningless semantics term, though. Pitch framing is putting a polite spin on it. If everyone called it like it is ("and you see how he fooled the umpire by subtly dragging the pitch back into the zone," "Molina is the best around at tricking the umpires into calling strikes when they're really balls," etc), it would accelerate the automation process.
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When they finally automate, we'll all be yelling, "Kill that f@cking machine!"
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He was better last year at -2.8 runs for the whole year. Just my guess but Darvish and Chatwood have been more difficult for him to frame this year.
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The Cubs feel confident enough in Russell’s status that they sent infielder David Bote back to Class AAA Iowa after he’d spent the previous two days in Chicago just in case a DL move was -needed.
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I wasn't disagreeing with your point. It's a bit surprising, because his numbers weren't bad when he came up (IIRC), but that's probably just due to the weakness of the metric. You know they're working with him on it.
No, I didn't think you were - just making an observation.
Of course Contreras brings a lot of positives, including defensively. But even factoring in blocking and throwing BP has Contreras as one of the worst net defensive catchers in baseball. I don't think he is, but I do think there's strong evidence he sucks at framing, and that's a legitimate problem.
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This is Contreras first year of having really bad framing numbers and that has pulled his defensive value down. In 2016 he was +5 runs. 2017 he was -2.6 runs. So there really isn’t a lot of evidence that he sucks. I think having to catch Chatwood and Darvish and not getting many Hendricks starts has hurt him a lot this year.
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Contreras was 88th out of 111 qualifying catchers in 2017. That's pretty goddamm bad.
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There are thousands of stats, and tens of thousands of variations of stats out there. If you look long enough, you can find weaknesses in the game of every player who ever played.
I am not one that believes that Maddon is the smartest manager in the history of baseball, but I have enough respect for him to be impressed when he says that if he had to choose one catcher in all of baseball, he would choose Contreras.
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Pitch framing has got to be my least favorite stat that's ever been created.
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And also the least useful. Not only is the stat itself extremely subjective, but there is no way to determine, objectively, how much weight to put on it, compared to the stats of other factors in the game.
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Just like every other defensive metric, pretty much.
The fact is, they're all inexact. But if someone is consistently bad, that suggests something more than random noise. One can choose to weight or not weight a statistic in terms of its impact on the game, but that doesn't mean the statistic is useless in measuring what it's trying to measure.
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Contreras was 88th out of 111 qualifying catchers in 2017. That's pretty goddamm bad.
He -2.6 runs that is -0.26 WAR. That isn’t bad, it is slightly below average.
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Pitch framing has got to be my least favorite stat that's ever been created.
It's not so much the creation of the stat, but the fact that the phenomenon exists that offends me. It highlights a problem. The reaction shouldn't be "Wow, catcher X is really great at pitch framing," it should be "Holy ****, this is how easy it is to trick the umpires into doing their job wrong? And it has this much effect on the game? That's not right. We should fix that problem." Maybe call it the Catcher Cheating stat. Umpires Fooled is probably better.
Along the same lines, I think they should put PitchTrax (or whatever the best system is) data put up on the video boards at the games. Umpires would hate it, of course. Calling pitches is really, really hard. Why ask a human to do it if there are better alternatives?
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Go watch that video of Amaya that Chris shared in the minor league thread: he looks waaaay better at framing than Contreras.
Willson is really stabby when receiving pitches - there is little flow, and the movements are jerky. I think the eye test backs up the metrics on the idea that he's a bad framer.
That said, he's still one of the very best catchers in baseball, and in some strange alternate universe where all the C's in MLB are dumped into a draft pool, he's probably the first guy off the board.
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The frustrating thing is he can easily improve.
If he would hold his glove in one spot when he sets a target instead of setting a target dropping his glove and bringing it back up. The stabbing at the ball doesn’t help, but he seems to be doing only when a pitch really misses. He’s had a lot of cross ups this year as well and that hurts.
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We do have some pitchers who are pretty bad at hitting the target...
The best framing catcher couldn't help Chatwood...or Darvish, with his crazy late movement...
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Drew Smyly (elbow) will throw a couple more live batting practice sessions before beginning simulated games at the Cubs' spring training complex.
Smyly faced hitters Friday at Wrigley Field for the first time since last year's Tommy John surgery. He could be ready for a rehab assignment at some point next month and hopes to be a factor for the Cubs during the second half.
Source: Bruce Miles on TwitterJun 8 - 11:58 AM
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We do have some pitchers who are pretty bad at hitting the target...
The best framing catcher couldn't help Chatwood...or Darvish, with his crazy late movement...
Agree. Chatwood was not even close when it was a "pressure" pitch. His wildest pitches were on 3-2 and 3-0 counts. Horrible. When the pressure was on, he overthrew, he ditched what he had gained in his side session, and he went back to his wrist wiggle and lack of focus on the pitch itself. And it was Ginenez catching yesterday, wasn't it? We needed Aaron Judge. I repeat, can we send him down to correct this at AAA instead of MLB?
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It's not so much the creation of the stat, but the fact that the phenomenon exists that offends me. It highlights a problem. The reaction shouldn't be "Wow, catcher X is really great at pitch framing," it should be "Holy ****, this is how easy it is to trick the umpires into doing their job wrong? And it has this much effect on the game? That's not right. We should fix that problem." Maybe call it the Catcher Cheating stat. Umpires Fooled is probably better.
Along the same lines, I think they should put PitchTrax (or whatever the best system is) data put up on the video boards at the games. Umpires would hate it, of course. Calling pitches is really, really hard. Why ask a human to do it if there are better alternatives?
Complete agreement.
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Agree. Chatwood was not even close when it was a "pressure" pitch. His wildest pitches were on 3-2 and 3-0 counts. Horrible. When the pressure was on, he overthrew, he ditched what he had gained in his side session, and he went back to his wrist wiggle and lack of focus on the pitch itself. And it was Ginenez catching yesterday, wasn't it? We needed Aaron Judge. I repeat, can we send him down to correct this at AAA instead of MLB?
The pitches Chatwood throws that are a foot off the plate aren't going to impact framing stats.
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Smyly being a factor in the second half could be interesting. Monty has certainly established himself as Plan A if another starter is needed, but a lot of things can happen over a long baseball season.
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The pitches Chatwood throws that are a foot off the plate aren't going to impact framing stats.
Yes, but that isn't due to poor control. It is simply because his pitches move so much. :)
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Thanks for Smiley note. I'd forgotten all about him. For next year, if Chatwood doesn't get something turned around, the rotation question could again be an area of opportunity.
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Another tremendous win yesterday with the combination that has made the Cubs SO tough in recent years:
* GREAT pitching (another super job by Monty and excellent bullpen work!)
* GREAT defense (Happ sold out and made 3 spectacular plays)
* opportunistic offense (KB and Zobrist switching spots? sure worked out well as Joe's moves do when Cubs are rolling)
The part of the game I saw Kuhl looked tremendous! Just outstanding stuff! Pirates have some serious arms!
Winning grind-em-out games like yesterday is what the best Teams do...awesome to see us playing this way yesterday.
Sure hope we can continue this play as much of this season as possible...really fun to watch Cubs play such great baseball again!
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Evidently, the Cubs have extra base hits in 94 consecutive games, tying the franchise record (set in 1995).
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Thanks a lot P2. You just made certain that the Cubs get no extra base hits today.
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In case anyone is regretting the Cubs did not sign Alex Cobb.
Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
After today's pounding by the #BlueJays, Alex Cobb has allowed 85 hits and 14 walks in 56 innings for the #Orioles. He has a 1.77 WHIP and a 7.23 ERA. Amazingly, the #Cubs Tyler Chatwood has a 1.78 WHIP and a 3.86 ERA.
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Cobb's disastrous season is puzzling. No evidence of injury that I'm aware of - he just sucks all of a sudden.
The above does illustrate a flaw with WHIP when viewed in a vacuum. Hits can be a lot worse than walks.
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I wonder how much the delay hurt Cobb.
Sequencing of hits/walks is likely a big role, plus Cobb has allowed 11 HR to Chatwood’s 3.
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Yep, the late signing and lack of a spring training is certainly Occam’s Razor explanation for Cobb’s downfall. This may just be a lost season for him, but I suspect he’ll be back to being a solid MORP next year.
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dave, we did get a double today to keep the streak alive.
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Yeah, but we tried our best to kill the streak.
Even the best teams sometimes fail.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 34m34 minutes ago
Mazzoni optioned, Anthony Bass up, Butler transferred to 60-day DL
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Progress with Darvish:
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
DARVISH to throw bullpen session Tuesday
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Progress with Darvish:
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
DARVISH to throw bullpen session Tuesday
Nice, thanks for posting that.
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I posted this in Today's Game, but thought maybe this is a better thread for it.
With the Rizzo HR, Cubs have now moved up to tie-for-9th-in NL in HRs, and now into 3-way tie-for-20th in HRs in mlb.
HRs are a super-efficient way to score runs. Especially in tight games against good pitchers, where it's hard to sequence bunches of hits.
Maybe at some point the Cubs are going to binge, and the Cubs are going to end up a stronger HR-hitting team.
But it may just be a thing that the 2018 Cubs aren't going to hit a lot of HRs.
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Craig, park effect (at Wrigley) has been rather severely anti-HR so far this year.
As the weather warms, that will VERY, VERY likely change!
Cub HRs will increase as the weather warms, even relative to the rest of MLB.
Book it.
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The lack of power from Bryant has become concerning.
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Relative to the NL, the Cubs are currently 1st in runs scored/game, 1st in OPS, and 1st in OBP. They're 8th in HRs/game and 3rd in SLG. On the pitching side, they are 1st in ERA, 1st in BAA, 1st in SLG against, and 1st in OPS against. They are 4th best in HRs allowed/game and last in K/BB. They have given up the most BBs/game in the NL.
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Craig, park effect (at Wrigley) has been rather severely anti-HR so far this year. As the weather warms, that will VERY, VERY likely change! Cub HRs will increase as the weather warms, even relative to the rest of MLB. Book it.
Cubs have hit 67, and allowed 58. So yeah, they'd got a +9 HR differential.
Maybe it's just some of the recent games. Sunday, Pirates hit one, Cubs hit none, so we're down 1-0 and need to be pulling Hendricks and then with bullpen it got away. If the Cubs had been up a HR instead of down a HR, that game would have played out very differently? Yesterday, Brewers had 2, and it was a really tough scramble to tie that game up without any HR's, before Rizzo eventually won it (and narrowed the HR deficit for the game) in the 11th. Last week, Phillies out-homered Cubs in the game they won, and prior to the Heyward grand-slam they had a bunch more HR-runs.
I think entering the season, a perception had been that the Cubs could have a clobbering offense with tons of power. I'm sure the rate will pick up somewhat over the summer, but I think it may just be reality that our HR-power is kinda average (if that.)?
Obviously as the record shows, that can be fine, given great bullpen, good rotation, good defense, good batting average, and outstanding OBP. If you're really good in most other areas, and still average in HR-power, that's the combo that's provided the best record in the league thus far.
But perhaps a lineup with Zobrist, Almora, Russell, Heyward, those guys just aren't going to hit a lot of HR's. Five starters have 4 HR's or less (Heyward, Contreras, Almora, Russell, and Zobrist.) I think some of those guys might reach 10 HR's before the season's done, but we may just want to enjoy the Cubs being a batting-average/OBP team more than a HR-slugging team.
To some degree, I think the dead-ball dip has been good for the team. I complained that the Cubs nibbled too much last year. I think with HR's down for everybody, it's a lot easier for pitchers to challenge? That's really helpful for guys like Wilson and Edwards and Strop and Rosario. And Lester too. A lot of his runs last year were on HR's, and when you're giving up bombs, how can you not nibble more? But if most of the flyballs are just flyouts anyway this year, I think that's great for the pitchers, and you don't need to be trying to throw chase pitches all the time.
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Craig, I think you make an excellent point about the "dead-ball dip" being good for Cub pitching!
It certainly seems we do a lot less nibbling this year (other than Chatwood...of course, it's probably not nibbling in his case).
New pitching coach/philosophy and, most likely, Theo/Jed/Jason being all over the ramifications of the "dead ball" and promoting an adjustment internally. Those guys just don't seem to miss ANY potential advantage!
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Hopefully, Bryant, Contreras, and Russell will start hitting home runs at the same rate they have done historically at some point soon.
Chili Davis lost his job in Boston because the Red Sox were so bad at hitting home runs last year. Is there something about his approach that results in fewer home runs? That may be something interesting to watch over the next year or two.
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He is known more for preaching contact over loft.
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I have a hard time worrying too much about their HR rate when they are leading the league in runs scored.
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I have a hard time worrying too much about their HR rate when they are leading the league in runs scored.
I don't care whether they lead the league (or MLB) in HRs. I do care that they score lots of runs, and the more ways they can do that the better. I prefer a balanced offense. And I am not at all worried about whether guys like Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras and Schwarber are going to hit enough HRs.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23775912/yu-darvish-says-chicago-cubs-fans-supportive-struggles-season
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You mean what Gimenez said shouldn’t have been taken as coming straight from Darvish? Who would have believed it.
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Jose Martinez will be on paternity leave this weekend for the Cubs/Cards series.
Luke Voit will be recalled...which means he'll go 8-12 or something silly this weekend...
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I don’t know how you can drop Monty from the rotation at this point- he’s been unbelievable. Think it has to be Chatwood to the pen when Darvish comes back, until the next opening.
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You mean what Gimenez said shouldn’t have been taken as coming straight from Darvish? Who would have believed it.
Me. I saw Darvish on the street and I walked right up to him and said, "My name is Dusty Haynes and I've told everyone that you're crap."
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Curt is so old, the word randomly inserts itself into sentences when he types.
I hear his social security number is 9...
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9 digits
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It will by really interesting to see what happens with Chatwood vs. Montgomery. If Chatwood continues to be OK but nothing more while Montgomery continues to be terrific, it seems like a no brainer to stick with Montgomery. But will they?
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Montgomery has given up 3 runs on 13 hits in 23.2 IP in 4 starts this year. He has 4 workable or better pitches and his career splits are literally exactly the same when it comes to OPS vs lefties and righties. The guy really should be a starter, whether it’s here or elsewhere- all things considered, I think he’s handled his usage quite diplomatically.
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Thats great that Curt knows my full name.
Lol
I don't think Darvish is crap and was happy with the signing.
I just dont think it's a coincidence when players have career years in their walk years and struggle once they get stability.
The lack of motivation to get paid brings forth laziness and less effort.
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Are you implying that Yu had a career year last season? Because that’s patently and demonstrably not the case.
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Spot on with Montgomery, Deeg...hard for Joe or anyone to deny that at this point. Hopefully, he stays into the rotation as long as he continues to perform. He's earned it!
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Personally, I don’t think the Cubs will ever give him a full time rotation slot - I don’t think they believe in him as a starter. His chance will come after a trade or when he signs somewhere else.
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Are you implying that Yu had a career year last season? Because that’s patently and demonstrably not the case.
No but I am saying he got paid so the motivation is less.
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Monty's going to get at least a couple more starts. If he makes it through them without shitting the bed (the way he has in the past after a couple of good starts), I don't see how they can *not* use him as a starter. I don't recall him having this many good starts in a row previously, so maybe he's figured it out. I sure hope so. He's fun to watch.
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Interesting piece on Jon Lester, his work on finding his arm slot during spring training and his velocity.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-jon-lester-success-20180614-story.html
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Thanks, Ron, that was really good. Man, pitching mechanics are so subtle. Hope Lester can stay grooved in.
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If the Cubs could trade a prospect/young major leaguer in 2018 to get Manny Machado and it would guarantee a World Series win, but also be guaranteed that prospect/young major leaguer would win 3 MVPs, would you do it?
Yes.
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In a heartbeat.
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Aren't Albert Almora and Manny Machado like boyhood best friends ?
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My fault I googled Almora and Machado and I read some articles on the subject.
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Maybe we can trade Almora for Machado
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It's June 16 and the Cubs' leader in WAR is.....Addison Russell.
Anyone think he'd be in the top-5?
Not sure what that says about the stat or the rest of the team.
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Probably doesn’t say much about the stat is what I’m thinking, not to hate on Russell.
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It's June 16 and the Cubs' leader in WAR is.....Addison Russell.
Anyone think he'd be in the top-5?
Not sure what that says about the stat or the rest of the team.
Probably a reflection of how bad the rest of the team is.
After all there are only 13 other NL teams with worse records. 😉
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It's June 16 and the Cubs' leader in WAR is.....Addison Russell.
Anyone think he'd be in the top-5?
Not sure what that says about the stat or the rest of the team.
That must be bWAR, which places a much larger premium on defense than fWAR.
fWAR runs Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, then Russell.
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Ive grabbed on to the OPS stat but I havent WAR.
Dont think I will either.
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Probably doesn’t say much about the stat is what I’m thinking, not to hate on Russell.
Yes, that's the takeaway. Russell is a good player, but that's so patently absurd that a thorough soul-searching for the sabermetricians is clearly in order.
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B-R's WAR has always been suspect because of their defense component. It really became obvious in 2012 when Darwin Barney spent the first half of the season near the top of their WAR leaderboard even though he was a below average MLB hitter.
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Probably doesn’t say much about the stat is what I’m thinking, not to hate on Russell.
There is a reason most of the stat inclined posters on this board use fWAR and not rWAR. The defensive component of WAR has always been the downfall of the stat though.
That said Russell has a wRC+ of 104 and is near the top of defensive SS in the league. He should have a high WAR total.
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https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1008200358496047105
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Certainly a team like the Cubs would ask for a window to see if they could sign Machado long term, but why would Machado do that when he has the ability to choose between several teams bidding for him? We’re told by people familiar with Machado’s thinking that the Cubs would be high on his list because of his friendship with Albert Almora. There’s more to such a major decision than a friendship, but it doesn’t hurt.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/06/16/are-red-sox-willing-meet-cost-pursuing-manny-machado/AbyWTonryoWXirHQdTSw2K/story.html
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https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1008200358496047105
Jesse Rogers (ESPN): Jason Heyward went deep on a 99.1 mph fastball from Jordan Hicks, making it the hardest pitch he's hit a home run off of in his career. This coming not long after hitting a walk off grand slam at Wrigley Field off lefty Adam Morgan. Heyward has four home runs on the season but has been on a slugging tear of late.
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-40022188-4
In the last week or so, Maddon and Heyward (and maybe Theo) have been talking about Heyward's use of his hands more, and the resulting "whip" effect as a reason for his improvement at the plate. If that's the case, then maybe this is a real turnaround. And if so, he's going to be a heck of an asset going forward.
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Buster Olney
Verified account
@Buster_ESPN
3m3 minutes ago
More
From @MosesMassena16:
Highest Percentage of Starts by Position Players Under Age 30 – 2018 MLB
Chicago Cubs 91.9 %
San Diego Padres 89.8 %
Cincinnati Reds 86.2%
Philadelphia Phillies 86.2%
Detroit Tigers 83.3%
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A good column by Patrick Mooney on Zobrist and Heyward.
https://theathletic.com/396314/2018/06/17/how-ben-zobrist-and-jason-heyward-are-finding-an-edge-when-pitching-is-better-than-ever/
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Once again, and I can’t stress this enough...
If you don’t have access to The Athletic, you should. It’s money well spent.
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They are crushing it. The local reporters they have for specific markets are fantastic. National content is great. It's well worth the $$ spent.
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The Jekyll and Hyde Cubs.
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1008332377276473344
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Interesting tidbit from Jesse Rogers: the NL team with the highest OBP has made it to the postseason every year since 2005. The Cubs currently lead the NL in OBP by 12 points (.340).
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One person close to Machado believes if there was a team he’d consider re-signing with before hitting free agency, it’s the Cubs.
https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/murray-monday-would-machado-re-sign-with-cubs-if-traded/
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I've long been in the pro-Harper group. That said, with Machado's injury history increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and his offering more consistency than Harper has thus far, I think I'm leaning Machado, if I had my pick of major offseason acquisitions...
Not sure how that works, though. Russell is *way* too valuable a trade chip straight up for Machado at this point, given what he's doing with the bat this year and how much longer he's under team control. Further, he's likely a much better SS defender than Machado. *IF* the Cubs were to trade for Machado, do they displace KB @ 3B, where Machado is truly a wizard? Bryant goes to the OF... where? All of Schwarber, Almora, and JHey have been significant contributors this year. Or do we trade Russell for Machado plus? Can't imagine the O's ownership approving something like that...
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I love Machado, and if being close friends with Almora reflects that he's a smart competitor who loves to play and loves to win, like Albert, that would be a great fit for the clubhouse, long-term. I love Almora's hustle and instincts, so if you added another guy like that who could hit with power and play middle-infield, that would be awesome. (Other than always wanting to slide into 1B! :)
But really, really hard to see how it could make any sense. If you added Machado, who could you have to trade other than Happ or Russell? And would either of those be the kinds of centerpiece guys that Baltimore would want in exchange? They are so bad, I'd think they'd want volume of young minor-league guys with upside. Granted, I'm not very creative, so maybe there could be a package, but with our relatively barren farm system, it's hard to see us really making good sense.
Other point from Cubs side is that even *IF* he was willing to sign an extension with Cubs, he's still going to only do that if it's at FA-caliber magnitude. So you'll still need to pay massive FA commitment, even if you do get that.
But yeah, given that the Cubs kind of live-and-die with their offense, and that we're a little short on HR's and middle-of-the-order sluggers, adding one more big-time bat could really help, for this year and the next handful also....
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Since April 25th...
Machado - .285/.342/.497 (120 wRC+)
Russell - .307/.368/.445 (121 w RC+)
Not to mention that Addi has the second most defensive runs saved (DRS) in baseball this season...
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I love Machado, and if being close friends with Almora reflects that he's a smart competitor who loves to play and loves to win, like Albert, that would be a great fit for the clubhouse, long-term. I love Almora's hustle and instincts, so if you added another guy like that who could hit with power and play middle-infield, that would be awesome. (Other than always wanting to slide into 1B! :)
But really, really hard to see how it could make any sense. If you added Machado, who could you have to trade other than Happ or Russell? And would either of those be the kinds of centerpiece guys that Baltimore would want in exchange? They are so bad, I'd think they'd want volume of young minor-league guys with upside. Granted, I'm not very creative, so maybe there could be a package, but with our relatively barren farm system, it's hard to see us really making good sense.
Other point from Cubs side is that even *IF* he was willing to sign an extension with Cubs, he's still going to only do that if it's at FA-caliber magnitude. So you'll still need to pay massive FA commitment, even if you do get that.
But yeah, given that the Cubs kind of live-and-die with their offense, and that we're a little short on HR's and middle-of-the-order sluggers, adding one more big-time bat could really help, for this year and the next handful also....
Happ or Russell is too high a price for Machado. O's will have to accept less, or Cubs will seriously overpay in sending one of those guys.
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Ill take Machado all day over Harper.
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Going from Russell/Baez to Machado at SS would be a huge downgrade on defense. Putting Machado at 3B and moving Bryant to the OF would make the infield defense amazing. I guess what I’m saying is I’d only be interested in Machado if he is willing to play 3B and not SS and Bryant is OK moving to the OF.
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I don't see how it works moving Bryant to the OF. Schwarber needs to start about 80% of the time, and how is that possible with Bryant in the OF?
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The same way with Harper being brought in. The playing time for Heyward/Almora/Happ/Zobrist would be affected.
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....
Russell - .307/.368/.445 (121 w RC+)
Not to mention that Addi has the second most defensive runs saved (DRS) in baseball this season...
HOpe he hits like that forevermore.
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Happ or Russell is too high a price for Machado.
I don't disagree, but I'm guessing They will think it's not enough.
The wild card is the whispered rumors we've had about the Cubs wanting to move on from Russell for off the field reasons. Without those whisperings, I would't give any credit to the Machado to Cubs rumors.
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Bowden was suggesting Russell and two pitching prospects yesterday while having the Cubs as his #1 suitor for Machado.
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Overall for the season, Addison Russell has 206 AB, 57 hits, and 52 K's. Machado has 268 AB, 83 hits, and 44 K's. so in 62 more at bats he has 26 more hits and 8 fewer strike outs.
The guys I talk to say that's what the Cubs need. They also say it won't happen because we love our young players.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 1h1 hour ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Brian Duensing on the bereavement list and recalled LHP Rob Zastryzny from @IowaCubs.
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The only way this Machado thing happens is with Russell being traded. I don’t expect it to happen, mind, but that’s the only way it does.
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Bowden was suggesting Russell and two pitching prospects yesterday while having the Cubs as his #1 suitor for Machado.
Bowden has trade proposals are either huge overpays and not nearly enough. He just put up and article on the aathletic that the Rays trade Blake Snell to the Yankees for Justus Sheffield (4.41 BB/9), Erik Swanson (soon to be 25 year old first time at AAA) and Clint Frazier. No way the Rays would do that. No way the Cubs trade Russell+.
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To echo Dave, the Athletic is great, Bowden's presence notwithstanding.
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It's like he sneaked in when no one was checking IDs.
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It's encouraging to see how Russell has improved offensively on a month to month basis. His SLG increased from .333 in April to .410 in May. So far in June, his SLG is .487. Over these same months, his OBP has gone from .326 to .355 to .395. Wouldn't it be great if he could continue to hit close to the way he has so far in June?
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Duensing's grandfather passed away on Saturday.
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Ive grabbed on to the OPS stat but I havent WAR.
Dont think I will either.
Take a look at OPS+, which measures how much better or worse a hitter was than league average, with league average being 100. It allows to make very quick comparisons between leagues, and even between seasons.
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Another good Patrick Mooney column with some great quotes from Zobrist about the adjustments that are required by hitters in today's game. I can see why he's such a valuable resource.
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Normally you'd expect Cory Mazzoni or Justin Hancock to be the 26th man for the split double header on Tuesday but the I-Cubs were in Tacoma Monday night.
With the two hour time difference could one of them make it to Wrigley in time for the first game?
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As Carrie Muskat asks, who will now start for the Cubs on Saturday.
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In 5 starts since replacing the injured Yu Darvish in the rotation on May 28, Montgomery has a 1.21 ERA. Darvish is still a ways from returning, but when he does come off the disabled list the Cubs will have an interesting decision to make.
"He's pitching really well," said manager Joe Maddon, whose team is 41-29. "We'll wait until everybody's well, and we'll make our decision. The other thing about Monty to understand is how many innings has he pitched historically? And you've got to be careful with that, too.
Is Maddon just leaving both options open or is he setting the stage for Monty's return to the bullpen?
The "X" factor is Tyler Chatwood who should get four more starts before the break.
I'm about out of patience with Chatwood.
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Cubs in
18 19
Cubs to open the 2019 season in Texas. Interleague opponents will be the AL West.
(http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-2019-schedule-notes-20180619-story.html)http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-2019-schedule-notes-20180619-story.html
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Morrow to DL, backdated to 6/17...Hancock sticking around...
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Evidently, Montgomery is the only Cub since 1908 to pitch at least 5 innings in his first 5 starts of a season without giving up more than 1 run in any of those starts.
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It's going to be tough getting through the next week without Morrow. Will there be a designated closer or will it be mix and match?
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Cishek has closed successfully before--he has 123 saves in his career. It seems like he'd be the first choice.
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The Cubs may now need a starter for both Saturday and Sunday in Cincinnati. Chatwood's wife is expecting.
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I bet Farrell gets a start this weekend. He last pitched three days ago, and I don't think he ever warmed up yesterday even though the bullpen was limited.
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Would they consider bringing Hatch up to start one of those games? There are no good choices at AAA.
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Underwood would be my guess.
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Would they consider bringing Hatch up to start one of those games? There are no good choices at AAA.
Seems unlikely that they would add a genuine prospect to the 40-man roster for that. If it's someone from the minors, it will likely be Mills or Underwood.
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They could open a 40 man spot if needed since Alzolay is shut down.
Mills was bad on Sunday (his last start), but had been good before that.
Underwood pitched yesterday. 5.2-5-1-1-3-2
Clifton pitched Saturday. 5.2-5-1-1-2-5 (not on 40 man)
De La Rosa is also on the 40, but not likely...
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23856874 Cubs = team to beat in NL
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23856874 Cubs = team to beat in NL
Thanks for the interesting perspective, Ben.
And thanks for saying where the link led to. I might have already been there or did not care to read the story.
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They could open a 40 man spot if needed since Alzolay is shut down.
Mills was bad on Sunday (his last start), but had been good before that.
Underwood pitched yesterday. 5.2-5-1-1-3-2
Clifton pitched Saturday. 5.2-5-1-1-2-5 (not on 40 man)
De La Rosa is also on the 40, but not likely...
De La Cruz.
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LOL, yeah...that guy!
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Lackey is still unsigned
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APPEARING...ONE NIGHT ONLY...JOHHHHHN LACKEY!
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Here's another guy who's just a phone call away...
https://www.sugarlandskeeters.com/theteam/-26-casey-coleman
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Really nice article by Rosenthal on La Stella: https://theathletic.com/401895/2018/06/21/rosenthal-from-pariah-to-beloved-team-leader-the-remarkable-transformation-of-tommy-la-stella/
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Thanks for La Stella article, P2. Really interesting.
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Really nice article by Rosenthal on La Stella: https://theathletic.com/401895/2018/06/21/rosenthal-from-pariah-to-beloved-team-leader-the-remarkable-transformation-of-tommy-la-stella/
Just read it. It's a terrific article. LaStella really comes off as a bright, thoughtful and good guy. Man, how things have changed in professional sports ... for the better. (At least within the Cubs).
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There has been a lot of discussion (and understandable frustration) her about the Cubs' poor production with RISP. Yet the Cubs have scored the most runs in the NL (if I'm not mistaken). What gives. Here's one take.
Jesse Rogers
Verified account
Retweeted Chris Sapp
About .232 including tonight....TIED with the Brewers and Cards pending their game...kind of funny. Only team worse then those 2 in the NL is the Mets...(but Cubs have scored 2nd most with RISP cause they get so many more chances)Jesse Rogers added,
Chris Sapp
@SappChris
Replying to @ESPNChiCubs
What’s the updated team BA w/RISP?
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Coming into today, the Cubs have had 30 more PA with RISP than any other team in MLB. And only one team has played fewer games than the Cubs (other teams have played as much as 5 more games).
They're 22nd in BA and 27th in SLG with RISP.
It's good that they're 4th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in runs scored with RISP (7th and 3rd overall, respectively). But based on their chances, the Cubs should be lapping the field in MLB in runs. It's a really dysfunctional offense.
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That is a poor characterization, br. They are not achieving their potential offensively because of their problems w/RISP. But the offense is nonetheless very good.
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An offense can be good and dysfunctional at the same time.
They're good in that they are one of the top 7 run scoring teams in baseball.
They're dysfunctional because if they were just an average RISP team, they'd be running away as the best hitting team in baseball.
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The lack of slugging is the bigger problem.
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Cubs are 13th in the league in HR's. Miami and San Diego have less.
I think it kind of is what it is?
Almora, Heyward, Zobrist, these guys aren't HR hitters.
Russell and Contreras have each had a 21-HR season in their past, but they're at 3 and 4 this season, and there's nothing in their swings or approach this year that suggest lots of HR's are coming.
Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Javy, Happ are supposed to be the HR guys. But Happ isn't playing a lot and doesn't hit the ball on the nose very often. Not a lot of pitches he likes to swing at and can drive, and pitchers don't go their often. Baez is ahead of his career high of 23.
Bryant isn't hitting many deep flies; he seems to have largely adapted towards being more of an opposite-field contact guy, kind of like Russell.
To some degree, it doesn't even seem like the Cubs are close to hitting many HR's. It's not like we see a lot of deep fly balls that just missed, lots of warning-track outs and doubles off the wall or anything. It's just not what they are right now.
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The offense is OBP-oriented, and obviously they are really good at it. .341 OBP, Reds at .332 and then Braves 3rd at .325. They aren't first but just a random step ahead; they are WAY ahead of most of the league. Batting average similar, not quite as much extension, but still pretty significant differential compared to the vast majority of NL teams. (Cubs .259; Braves .258; Giants at .256; rest are ≤ .253 and mostly sub-.250. Pretty big separation....)
The high BA/OBP approach obviously has been effective, enough to stay within a game of brewers, and 2nd in runs-per-game only to Atlanta. (Rockies have 5 more runs, but in 3 more games.) I think the high OBP/BA, the team success and playoff qualification is totally sustainable.
But it does seem the RISP stuff is a weird thing, but also a real thing. Who'd expect a contact-oriented, top-BA-oriented team should stink at situational hitting and BA with runners on and getting in guys from 3rd? It's totally counterintuitive. But it's been a thing for long enough now that while it may get better, I'm not sure it's really a fluke or anything; or that we should expect the top-NL-team-in-BA should expect to have the top-BA-with-RISP for the duration.
If you look at Cubs losses, it's pretty routine that they are out-homered. Yesterday lose by 4, 4-run homer difference. Loss to Dodgers, 1 HR worth the 1 run differential. Cardinal loss, out-homered. Brewers losses, out-homered. Pirates loss, out-homered and that 1 run deficit dictated the whole flow of the game.
Hopefully they can avoid being out-homered in the next several games, and perhaps even have a HR-advantage in some of them!
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The lack of slugging is the issue with RISP. They Cubs slugging is around .100 lower. The average is down, but the difference be .259 and .239 is 2 hits over 100 AB. 2 singles in the best of circumstances is going to be 4 runs, but it could be 0 runs to. Is 4 runs over 10 games really going to make BR happy? Closing the .100 point SLG difference could really create a lot more runs. HR's coming back would be great too.
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I still think it could be possible to close in on league-average HR's-wise.
There's a full continuum on the awful-to-great spectrum, and making a little anti-awful progress, maybe sneak up on mediocre, maybe even get to average, would be helpful.
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The Cubs' OBP is helped immensely by hit batters where they are #1 in the NL by a wide margin. That's not something you can count on consistently come playoff time.
And yes, the Cubs don't hit w/ RISP and when they do the vast majority of the hits are singles. Quite a few don't even lead to runs.
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Another reason the Cubs' OBP is inflated is that they lead the majors in intentional walks by a ridiculous amount. Their total is nearly 3x's the ML average.
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The difference between the Cubs being tied for 15th in HBP and IBB is being on base 33 times. Even if those 33 times were all outs the that barely moves the needle when the you are talking about 2523 AB.
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Jesse Roger's just tweeted that the Cubs have the best winning percentage against .500+ teams in the NL.
The team can be disappointing, particularly with RISP. The disappointments largely stem from high expectations. In spite of their shortcomings, they have either the best or second best record in the NL, and the have been successful against their nearest competitor.
Nothing wrong with pointing out problems for sure. But sometimes a few people seem to create the impression they believe this is not a really, really good team. But it is. If they aren't, who is?
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Well said, Ron.
Also, the Cubs will start hitting more HRs and improve the SLG percentage...if healthy, guys like Russell and Contreras aren't going to end up with fewer than 10 HR and I won't be surprised if Almora joins them. Bryant and Rizzo will finish the season close to 30...Schwarber, too. Baez may. Happ should hit 20, maybe more if he gets on a torrid streak or two.
Of course, it almost always comes down to pitching. IF we get good, solid performance from 5 starters and our bullpen is anywhere close to what it's been, we will be right where we want to be at the end of the regular season.
It's VERY frustrating that we can't seem to handle the teams we should handle, but...that's MLB. All the guys at that level are REALLY good!
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The difference between the Cubs being tied for 15th in HBP and IBB is being on base 33 times. Even if those 33 times were all outs the that barely moves the needle when the you are talking about 2523 AB.
Normalizing their HBP and IBB numbers would drop them from #1 in OBP to 6th. Still really good but a pretty substantial difference.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 37m37 minutes ago
Barring setback with his airplane, Duensing expected in uniform for game time.
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Normalizing their HBP and IBB numbers would drop them from #1 in OBP to 6th. Still really good but a pretty substantial difference.
The #15 team in the MLB has 29 HBP, the #15 team in MLB has 13 IBB.
OBP= (Hits+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
If the Cubs IBB and HBP were the same as the #15 team that would be (653+298+29)/(2523+298+29+19)= 0.341
If you gave the Cubs the worst IBB (2) HBP (16) the would have 980/2869=0.336 That would put them 1 point behind the Astros at #2.
If you gave them 0 HBP or IBB their OBP would still be .331, in a tie for 4th with the Yankees.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 37m37 minutes ago
Barring setback with his airplane, Duensing expected in uniform for game time.
He's back. Justin Hancock to Iowa.
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The #15 team in the MLB has 29 HBP, the #15 team in MLB has 13 IBB.
OBP= (Hits+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
If the Cubs IBB and HBP were the same as the #15 team that would be (653+298+29)/(2523+298+29+19)= 0.341
If you gave the Cubs the worst IBB (2) HBP (16) the would have 980/2869=0.336 That would put them 1 point behind the Astros at #2.
If you gave them 0 HBP or IBB their OBP would still be .331, in a tie for 4th with the Yankees.
Reducing the number of HBP and IBB increases the number of AB. Then you have to assign an outcome to those additional AB.
If you assume the Cubs go 9-33 in those extra AB, their resulting OBP would drop from .341 to .333.
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Reducing the number of HBP and IBB increases the number of AB. Then you have to assign an outcome to those additional AB.
If you assume the Cubs go 9-33 in those extra AB, their resulting OBP would drop from .341 to .333.
Why assume they OBP in those 42 extra at bats would be worse than their other AB (especially when there is at least one ball)?
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Which 42 AB?
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HBP shouldn't be something that's "normalized". The Cubs have some guys like Rizzo and Bryant who have been quite good at getting hit by pitches in their careers. That's not necessarily a fluke thing.
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You should normalize HBP if you're trying to put things in the worst possible light.
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HBP are far more random and rare than walks so it makes sense to look at them through that prism. Course, we can't all be as unbiased and impartial as PlayTwo.
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Rizzo has led the league in HBP 2 out of the last 3 seasons, so it's not a fluke he's leading it again. Bryant has finished 3rd and 6th in HBP in each of the last two seasons.
When you have two guys on your team consistently leading the league in HBP, it's not a surprise your team is also going to be doing well in it. HBP is a legit part of why those guys are good at getting on base. Not a random or rare thing for either of them.
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Yeah but you can't count on it the playoffs for some reason.
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Bryant's been hit once in 153 playoff plate appearances, Rizzo four times in 150 playoff plate appearances.
Since Cletus is so smart maybe he can compare those rates to the regular season ones. Probably won't even need a calculator.
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The Cubs have also reached the NLCS in each of the last three seasons and won a World Series.
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Come on JR, don't join the non-sequitur brigades. That has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
And if you want to get on that subject, how did they do offensively against the Dodgers and Mets in two of those series? Do you trust the offense against high caliber pitching come playoff time if they don't hit and don't hit with runners on?
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Bryant's been hit once in 153 playoff plate appearances, Rizzo four times in 150 playoff plate appearances.
Since Cletus is so smart maybe he can compare those rates to the regular season ones. Probably won't even need a calculator.
I know it's your thing but you probably should avoid drawing conclusions from very small samples.
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Come on JR, don't join the non-sequitur brigades. That has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
And if you want to get on that subject, how did they do offensively against the Dodgers and Mets in two of those series? Do you trust the offense against high caliber pitching come playoff time if they don't hit and don't hit with runners on?
Chris, I think when it comes right down to it, the postseason is a crapshoot. Always is and always has been. Sometimes you're going to be all systems go and sometimes you won't be and sometimes it'll be somewhere in between. The biggest thing is just getting there, especially with a team that has enough talent to do something when it does make it, which we have.
But for the times the Cubs have had problems hitting in the postseason, our record in the postseason in the last three years is very good. We're first by ourselves in reaching LCS's, tied for first in World Series appearances, and tied for first in World Championships. Every other fanbase of every other team probably also has their own quibbles with how their team has performed once they reach the postseason. I'm sure Cleveland fans have been wondering, "What the hell?" with their team too as good as they've been lately, for instance.
It's a crapshoot. Our bats could be cold or we could be dialed in when we get there too. The team we play might get shutdown themselves by our pitching or might just be cold themselves. What you want is a team that'll have a chance in the postseason if they'll get there, and we'll likely have that if/when we make it.
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Six veteran Cubs pitchers are currently setting personal career highs for BBs per 9 IP: Chatwood, Quintana, Hendricks, Darvish, Duensing, and Wilson.
Two more veteran pitchers are walking more than their career averages: Lester and Cishek.
Two more are walking fewer than their career average, but also are well above league average this year: Edwards and Morrow.
That leaves only two veteran pitchers--Montgomery and Strop--who are walking fewer than both their career average and this year's NL average.
As a result, only one team in baseball is walking more than the Cubs (White Sox; 4.30 BB per 9 IP vs. 4.24 BB per 9 IP). The difference between the Cubs and the third worst Braves (3.87) is the same as the difference between the Braves and the #11 Angels.
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I know it's your thing but you probably should avoid drawing conclusions from very small samples.
150 PA's during the playoffs is anything but a very small sample size. I collected the data and there are obvious differences in HBP numbers from the regular season since pitching quality and concentration are significantly upped during the playoffs.
Where is your data suggesting large HBP numbers that help OBP in the playoffs? Maybe you were too busy snarking to check them out?
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Reducing the number of HBP and IBB increases the number of AB. Then you have to assign an outcome to those additional AB.
If you assume the Cubs go 9-33 in those extra AB, their resulting OBP would drop from .341 to .333.
Why are you assuming a 0% walk rate?
But the math is off too. Your scenario is 989/2902 or 0.3407.
If you assume 0 IBB and HBP and the Cubs went 0/75 with no walks to replace them they still have .323 OBP or tied for 8th in MLB if we really want to get rediculous.
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To JR's point, it's about getting IN the playoffs, preferably by winning the division, of course.
Some of us can remember, painfully, the last World Championship won by our good friends, the Cardinals.
They finished the regular season, 82-80.
Once in the playoffs, it's about which Team plays their best baseball at the right times.
Often, the Team with the best regular-season record doesn't get a whiff of the World Series.
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Downers gonna down.
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Why are you assuming a 0% walk rate?
But the math is off too. Your scenario is 989/2902 or 0.3407.
If you assume 0 IBB and HBP and the Cubs went 0/75 with no walks to replace them they still have .323 OBP or tied for 8th in MLB if we really want to get rediculous.
You're correct that 9-33 isn't good enough for this analysis. It should be 11 or 12 for 33. From the standpoint of calculating OBP, it doesn't matter whether you count those 11 or 12 as hits or walks.
Here are the details of the calculation after last night's results.
The first number is the actual. The second is the "what if".
PA. 2924 2924 (no change)
AB 2554 2588 (increases by the delta in IBB & HBP: 34)
H 657 669 (increases by 12: 12 for 34)
UIBB 251 251 (no change)
IBB 35 13 (reduces to #15 in MLB)
HBP 41 29 (reduces to #15 in MLB)
SF 19 19 (no change)
SH 21 21 (no change)
DI 3 3 (no change)
OBP .339. .332
Is there something wrong with this calculation?
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19m19 minutes ago
Updated #Cubs pitching: Luke Farrell starts today, Chatwood on Sunday unless his wife needs him (they're expecting 1st child). Montgomery is backup on Sunday
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Ah my math was off. I wasn’t taking the IBB out of the BB number.
Why do the Cubs have so many IBB. The 8th batter in the Cubs lineup has a .362/.492/.855 slash line this year. 9th hitter
.248/.280/.528 with a 33% K%. Just looking at Cubs pitchers it is .124/.107/.231 with a 40% K%. The rest of the line up is pretty balanced between righties and lefties so a lot of match up IBB likely exist too.
Nearly all of the Cubs HBP come from Bryant/Rizzo/Baez/Contreras this year. Rizzo has been hit in 2.7% of PA in the playoffs and 3.8% of PA this year. The dude gets hit a lot from crowding the plate.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 6m6 minutes ago
Rob Z (back) to DL. Farrell optioned. Mazzoni, Hancock added to pen.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 5m5 minutes ago
No move for Chatwood yet. Technically still on 25-man roster. Paternity leave is one day minimum, three-day max.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 6m6 minutes ago
The Cubs announced 2012, 2nd round pick, Duane Underwood, will make his ML debut on Monday at Dodgers Stadium. Underwood is 3-7 with a 4.27 ERA at Triple-A Iowa. The righty has a career 3.79 minor league ERA.
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I'm sure if I read the On The Farm thread I would know, but what's the scoop on Underwood?
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I'm sure if I read the On The Farm thread I would know, but what's the scoop on Underwood?
Former high round pick. Very good arm, inconsistent results. Supposedly had a big upside coming out of high school. May still have some, but a lot of the shine has worn off.
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Darvish to make a rehab start tomorrow at South Bend.
In far more important news, the banner at Darvish Court around the corner from my apartment in Kobe has been changed to reflect Yu in his Cubs uniform.
[attachment deleted by admin]
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Ugh...
Yu Darvish - S - Cubs
Yu Darvish told Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM and 670thescore.com after his rehab start Monday that his right triceps still doesn't feel 100 percent.
This comes shortly after Cubs manager Joe Maddon said that Darvish would likely rejoin the rotation this weekend as long as he felt OK. He struck out five across five innings of one-run ball for Low-A South Bend, but it doesn't sound like he's ready to rejoin the big club just yet. Darvish will fly to Los Angeles to join the team on Tuesday, at which point the next course of action will be determined.
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Didn't this team do a nose dive right before the break last year too?
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Ugh...
Yu Darvish - S - Cubs
Yu Darvish told Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM and 670thescore.com after his rehab start Monday that his right triceps still doesn't feel 100 percent.
This comes shortly after Cubs manager Joe Maddon said that Darvish would likely rejoin the rotation this weekend as long as he felt OK. He struck out five across five innings of one-run ball for Low-A South Bend, but it doesn't sound like he's ready to rejoin the big club just yet. Darvish will fly to Los Angeles to join the team on Tuesday, at which point the next course of action will be determined.
"Not necessarily pain, but I can't for sure say there's nothing going on in the triceps," Darvish told reporters in South Bend through a translator. "It's not like anything bad, but I feel like anyone who comes off the DL goes through this. So I think this is more the process."
Context is always important. In the Miles column Darvish (through an interpreter) may be saying how is arm feels is to be expected at this point.
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Another quote from Yu Darvish that can be read in more than one way.
The Chicago Cubs might have further word on Yu Darvish after the Japanese ace said he felt soreness in his troubled triceps tendon following a minor league rehab start. Darvish hasn't pitched in the majors since May 20 because of right triceps tendinitis. He threw five sharp innings for Class A South Bend on Monday, and was set to rejoin the Cubs during their series at Dodger Stadium.
"In the triceps there's likeliness to get more fatigue there, especially if there's a long gap between innings," he said through a translator. "That's when I feel fatigue there. Not necessarily pain, but I can't for sure say there is nothing going on in the tricep zone."
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wmljohn, I flew to Chicago to see the Cubs play the Pirates right before the All Star break last season. The Cubs lost both games, and in the Sunday game Lester gave up 10 runs in the first inning!
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Bryant to the DL.
I know they’re saying the soreness just started in the last week or so, but I’m very skeptical of that. His lack of power and increased strikeout rate are exactly what you’d expect to see from a guy playing through a minor shoulder injury.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 22m22 minutes ago
The #Cubs today:
- Placed 3B Kris Bryant (left shoulder inflammation, retroactive to 6/23) & RHP Justin Hancock (right shoulder inflammation) on 10-day DL
- Optioned RHP Duane Underwood Jr. to @IowaCubs
- Recalled RHPs Luke Farrell & Dillon Maples, INF David Bote from Triple-A
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Bryant to the DL.
I know they’re saying the soreness just started in the last week or so, but I’m very skeptical of that. His lack of power and increased strikeout rate are exactly what you’d expect to see from a guy playing through a minor shoulder injury.
Bryant saying the initial injury was likely 1 month ago...
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Bryant saying the initial injury was likely 1 month ago...
I can predict the future, then (except for my posts in the predictions topic...don't look there).
I really think we're going to eventually find out that Bryant has been playing through an injury for the last month or so. This has just gone on too long for it to be a regular slump.
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Don't twist your shoulder patting yourself on the back for that one - it was the right call (which is why I suggested it as soon as the DL announcement) but we're hardly Holmesian for figuring it out.
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I thought I made it clear I wasn't really patting myself on the back by bringing up (mocking?) my predictions that Quintana would be a Cy Young finalist, Contreras would be an MVP candidate, and Wilson would lead the team in saves.
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All those things could still happen...
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wS9ph1ghtI
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http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-darvish-hernandez-20180627-story.html
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 9m9 minutes ago
Morrow activated, Mazzoni optioned
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Gordon Wittenmyer isn't very happy with the ambiguous way Yu Darvish has described how his arm feels.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1193403
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I’m surprised Wittenmyer was able to stop drooling over DJ LaMahieu long enough to write that ridiculous article.
Well, I’m assuming it was ridiculous. I rolled my eyes at the headline and stopped reading.
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Wittenmyer - German for C U N T.
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Are you actually paying for access to the Suntime's? I stopped reading when they went behind the pay window.
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Robb, they've taken the paywall down. As for those who haven't read Gordon W's article, in it he seems to be saying to Darvish: words matter...be careful what you say.
He should take his own advice.
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I though the other Darvish article was interesting, in which he said he was thinking about retiring, and baseball wasn't much fun anymore. (He said this was his thinking prior to his trade to the Dodgers.)
Baseball is probably lots more fun when you're healthy, pitching effectively, winning, confident, and when fans and manager and teammates all love you. I wonder for how many of Yu's 6 years with the Cubs that will all hold true? Or if a lot of the years it won't be much fun for him?
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Morrow activated, Mazzoni optioned
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 9m9 minutes ago
Morrow activated, Mazzoni optioned
Is somebody going to help him change pants?
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Craig, I found that retirement comment interesting too, and a little unnerving. The truth about all this twitter nonsense and worrying about what fans say is that as soon as he strings together a few good starts, that disappears. But Yu is a mercurial kind of guy - very thoughtful and introspective. I don't love hearing him say his passion for the game had left him to that extent.
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Morrow activated, Mazzoni optionedIs somebody going to help him change pants?
Like I said Man, a kilt. A kilt!
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Jon Lester is a fan of Javy Baez.
Playing third base while Kris Bryant is on the disabled list and resting a sore left shoulder, Báez initiated a 5-2-5-3 double play that ended the second inning, tagging Cody Bellinger in a rundown and firing the ball to first base when he noticed Yasiel Puig take two steps toward second base.
“I didn’t even realize there was a play over at first,” Jon Lester said. “I don’t think really anybody knew there was a play at first. That just goes back to Javy Being Javy. He’s probably my favorite player to watch.”
“I’ve got to play with some really good infielders in my career,” Lester said. “I think Javy has kind of surpassed all those guys – Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia. Just the athleticism and the ability to play all three primary infield positions and do it at a high level.”
https://theathletic.com/410250/2018/06/27/how-javier-baez-is-becoming-the-star-major-league-baseball-needs-now/
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Lester is a smart man.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 5m5 minutes ago
Maples optioned to make room for Chatwood, Edwards will pitch Friday at Iowa
Chatwood had reached the limit for how long a player can be on the paternity list.
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This doesn't sound good:
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Darvish to be re-evaluated back in Chicago. Felt pain not just soreness today
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Montgomery Friday, Chatwood Saturday for the rotation.
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I'm guessing that the plan is for Darvish to come back after the All Star break. In the meantime, it will be baby steps.
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Which year's all-star break?
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Damn.
Didnt some poster who's been here damn near 20 years try to warn the board about Japanese pitchers?
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Damn.
Didnt some poster who's been here damn near 20 years try to warn the board about Japanese pitchers?
Yeah, but we ignore asshats.
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Damn.
Didnt some poster who's been here damn near 20 years try to warn the board about pitchers?
Fixed it for you.
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Cubs are a mess.
KB, CJ, and Darvish are on the DL.
Hendricks and Quintana are struggling.
Chatwood is broken.
Still, they're on pace for 90 wins. If the season ended today, they'd be the first wild card.
Welcome to Cub fandom in the modern era.
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Chatwood is fixable. Monty has been a revelation. Baez is a top-5 MVP candidate. Darvish is a huge worry, but this team is still formidable.
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The 2004 Cubs won 89 games despite injuries to Wood and Prior and were considered one of the biggest underachieving teams in recent memory. Not sure why this team is let off the hook for their massive underachievement thus far.
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Just to aggravate you.
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Ha. I'm not aggravated. Just don't see how anyone can be particularly content with the season thus far. Not with that talent on paper.
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Uh, Chris...Cubs aren't the only team with talent.
And being on pace for 90 wins while getting very little from Darvish so far, it's not all bad for Cubs at this point, tho' this has sure been a tough stretch.
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The Cubs certainly have the talent to have a record in the area of the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox. Those teams are 26-28 games over .500 while the Cubs are 9 over.
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In 2016, Cubs won games at the current type of level as the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox this season...AND our starting pitching was absolutely lights out most every day in the 1st half of 2016!
This season, our bullpen has been excellent overall and Lester has been GREAT; however, Lester is ONE-FIFTH of the rotation! Hendricks has not been good very often, Quintana hasn't been good very often, Chatwood hasn't been able to throw strikes and we've gotten little out of Darvish, who hasn't pitched at all in a while.
Meanwhile, Rizzo has struggled most of the 1st half, Bryant has been playing hurt (and hasn't played at all for a while).
So, overall, our starting pitching has not been good and the two KEY guys in our offense have not played at their typical levels.
We're lucky to be where we currently are in the standings.
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Where would they be without Montgomery at this point? Unless he totally self-destructs, I don't see how you can send him back to the bullpen again. If the playoffs were to start today he would have to be your number 2 starter.
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I think you might want to park him in the bullpen for a bit to save innings for the playoffs to be honest. He threw 130 innings last year and his career high is 150.2 in 2011. He is already at 61.
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In 2016, Cubs won games at the current type of level as the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox this season...AND our starting pitching was absolutely lights out most every day in the 1st half of 2016!
Except for the Giants going into the All-Star break with the best record.
The season in 162 games long and the Cubs haven't even reached the half way point. I'll get worried in October.
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Good points about Monty, guys! We'd be screwed without him and should assume he will remain one of our top guys, so "protecting" him will be important.
Getting Carl Jr. back will help, if he's healthy. We need to assume Yu won't be back for a while (and hope he comes back at some point at all this season as the real Yu, but who knows?)
We're near the halfway point and it sure seems likely it will be a dogfight for us the rest of the way...as it almost always is for the competitive teams.
We all want to see the offense hit its stride, but i'm a lot less concerned about the offense than about our starting pitching.
If, somehow, our starters are good the rest of the way, we are very highly likely to make the playoffs, whether the offense takes it up a notch or not.
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Baby Baez was born, so Javy might be out of the line up for a few days.
Bruce Miles
@BruceMiles2112
#Cubs say Darvish has flown to Dallas for a second opinion with Dr. Keith Meister, with whom he has worked in past.
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Cubs are a mess.
KB, CJ, and Darvish are on the DL.
Hendricks and Quintana are struggling.
Chatwood is broken.
Still, they're on pace for 90 wins. If the season ended today, they'd be the first wild card.
Welcome to Cub fandom in the modern era.
I agree with Jeff's assessment. This is a team that could explode in September and cruise to another World Championship. It could also implode in September and miss the playoffs. It has a lot of talent, but not a lot of consistency or balance. It is what it is. Right now there is a lot of trade talk, but little about Cub involvement. We really could only deal from the main roster, so it's not surprising. Another starter to counter the potential Darvish issue and Chatwood horseshit would be nice. One or two contact hitters to balance the k's in the lineup would be super, but I don't think it will happen.
I think the major conflicts on this board between a group that sees the Champion capable Cubs and the crap capable Cubs is primarily born of the disappointment that the Cubs are not the dominant team we felt was coming out of the 2016 World Series. I don't think I was alone to think that all these young stud players would only get better and we would continue to spend FA money wisely, and here we come, DYNASTY. And it hasn't happened. We've stumbled. We've choked. Now and then we see the team we dreamed we would be, and then disappointment and frustration.
Jeff is right. This is the new age of Cub fandom. I dreamed it would be different, but, you know, it's a hell of a lot better than BEFORE 2015.
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Choked?
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Choked?
You're probably taking that word too harshly that what I mean. Substitute what you wish, failed, been unluckly...
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3 straight NLCS isn't failing, being unlucky............
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Some Cub players have under performed based on their past accomplishments. Rizzo, Chatwood, Quintana, and Hendricks fall into that category. Others have not progressed as much as some might have hoped. Others have had health problems that have slowed them down. My view is that the under performers are likely to improve, in some cases markedly, in the second half. The inconsistency of the young players is likely to continue, but Happ, Russell, Almora, and Schwarber have all performed well overall and I doubt any of them has reached his peak. Injuries are impossible to project, but it seems likely that Bryant will come back strong, and CJ should be ready soon. No doubt, this Cub team should be in better position in the standings than it is, but somewhat underperforming in the first half is not that big a deal. They simply will need to perform closer to their talent level (and avoid bad luck) and they will win the Central, probably with ease.
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You're probably taking that word too harshly that what I mean. Substitute what you wish, failed, been unluckly...
I don't think there has been any failure, choking, or unluckiness. Once they decided to switch to win mode in 2015, they've been the best team in the league. Winning the WS was awesome and I hope they can do it many more times but that can not be the measure of success or failure.
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3 straight NLCS isn't failing, being unlucky............
I think you and Cletus are taking that out of context. In paragraph I and III, I am agreeing with you. All those NLCSes and wins and such certainly aren't failures and unluckiness. Go to paragraph II; it is there that I am talking about the debates and divide on this board regarding the DAILY experience with the Cubs. It takes a lot of confirmation bias and blindness to believe that the team never falters during the season. My main point was that I believe that they can overcome that in the end. I'm done.
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If the news is bad on Darvish (I sure hope not) keep an eye on Cole Hamels as a potential name linked with the Cubs.
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My guess is that Darvish will be fine after a few more weeks of rest.
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My grandmother was a hypochondriac who'd go months at a time and do nothing but lay around and mope.
My grandfather used to say that all she needed was a good ass chewing and it would fix what ailed her.
My grandfather who has since died needs a few moments with Darvish.
He sure looked fine for Des Moines a few days ago to everyone who watched.
Im guessing he has "I got paid already" syndrome.
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I’m guessing you’re showing your true colors.
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Calling out a rich athlete?
Yeah I guess so.
They're not little leaguers.
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Elbow impigment for Darvish. He got an elbow injection and will rest for 3-5 days.
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He sure looked fine for Des Moines a few days ago to everyone who watched.
Not everyone said that (and he was at South Bend, not Des Moines). I saw some reports that he was sitting around 90 mph. For example:
Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
He said it'd be up to front office and staff as to when he returns. Was throwing some 90-mph pitches we assumed were cutters but he said he didn't throw any and those were FBs.
In any case, the reason you've gotten criticized for your takes around here is because what you've said mostly amounts to "Asian pitchers get hurt more often" with no nuance. And now you're acting like Darvish has some kind of personality flaw that makes him lazy even though you have absolutely zero evidence for that. It's no wonder people think your motivations are based on something other than just performance on the field.
If your take had been "Darvish has thrown a lot of innings, has had injury problems already, and he's missed time almost every year since coming to MLB, so we shouldn't offer him a lot of money" instead of "Every Japanese player but Ichiro has flat out stole money and the pitchers usually don't come over here until their arm is about to fall off. Let somebody else get analized," maybe people would take you more seriously on this topic.
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If the news is bad on Darvish (I sure hope not) keep an eye on Cole Hamels as a potential name linked with the Cubs.
I'd prefer JA Happ.
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Impingement
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23948895/yu-darvish-chicago-cubs-diagnosed-elbow-impingement-inflammation
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Im not trying to ruffle any feathers even though I do believe what I've said about the Japanese pitchers not coming over here until their arms have extensive wear.
As far as the rich athlete concept goes I just think that's human nature.
You're gonna bust ass until you get paid and then you'd lose that fire because you did.
I'd do the same.
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Maybe you would. Lots of guys, however, mess themselves up trying to hard to earn the contract that they don't (and I hate to use this) play within themselves. Lester and Heyward are a couple of examples, but there are plenty of others. I'm guessing Darvish is in that camp as well.
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DelMarFan, that's a very good take, in my opinion. Darvish seems to be a VERY proud guy who wants to be loved by the fans in Chicago. Let's get him healthy and see what happens.
And let's also hope THIS version is the real Jason Heyward! The dude has been en fuego!
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What is the topical treatment for an impingement?
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Darvish got a steroid shot into the elbow.
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Bet that felt good.
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CBJ, doesn't cortisone hide the pain rather than cure the problem?
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Elbow injections are horribly painful.
CBJ, doesn't cortisone hide the pain rather than cure the problem?
It can take away the inflammation and help with the pain so there is a chance it could cure or at least calm it down for months. If it is because of the anatomy of his elbow then the only cure would be a scope of the elbow that hopefully could be done in the off season.
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Almora left today's game with a leg issue. He currently stands 4th in all of baseball at .332 behind only Altuve, Betts, and Segura.
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Elbow injections are horribly painful.
I had a couple of them about 40 years ago. The memory couldn't be more vivid if it happened yesterday.
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I've had them in my knees a number of times, and I remember my wife once had one in her shoulder. She seemed to be in more pain than I ever felt.
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Almora left today's game with a leg issue. He currently stands 4th in all of baseball at .332 behind only Altuve, Betts, and Segura.
Almora had a tight quad a few days ago.
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Midway point stats have some interesting items, including 46-35 record and on pace for 92 wins.
* as Deeg pointed out on Today's Game - we lead the NL in runs, RBI, TB, BA and OPS...and, also, OBP at .344.
* on the downside, we lead MLB in total walks by a lot...and it's not just Chatwood, tho' he's the wild man of all MLB pitchers this year
* Baez' numbers are MVP level (with his D) .285 BA, .559 SLG, .880 OPS, 13 SB/ 1 CS, 41 XBHs in 288 ABs (anything better than 10:1 AB to XBH is very good)...16 HR, 59 RBI, 51 runs scored
Baez' awesome game the other night to propel us to victory over LA after 5 straight losses was HUGE...he's easily been Cubs' best player this season
* Hard to deny that Almora has played at an AS level...great D and now .332 BA, .369 OBP, .461 SLG, .830 OPS...21 XBHs in 241 ABs (that ratio is way up from last season...he seems to be growing into more power as evidenced by his 430' HR the other night off a 97mph FB from Buehler in LA...a very pleasant surprise this season
* Of course, another very pleasant surprise has been JHey...now at .291 BA, .349 OBP, .440 SLG and .789...and he now has 22 XBHs in 234 ABs thanks to his recent HOT streak...but he is hitting for SO much more authority than any other stretch during his time with the Cubs, it does seems as though he's found something
* Zobrist has been excellent...297 BA, .394 OBP, .439 SLG, .832 OPS
* Russell has come WAY up in recent weeks to .285 BA, .355 OBP, .407 SLB, .762 OPS...sure seems like his 2nd half should be a good one, if he stays healthy!
* It's great that all the above has happened and neither Bryant nor Rizzo has really gone off...of course, Bryant played hurt for a month and Rizzo got off to a terrible start and has done a very nice job in recent weeks...these guys should do their thing in the 2nd half as should Schwarber, who has 16 HR in only 234 ABs and his .372 OBP, .487 SLG and .859 OPS are very good!
* We hit 88 HRs in 1st half (and gave up 81)...anyone want to bet we won't hit more in the 2nd half than the 1st?
We all know the 1st half HRs were down and we had problems with RISP, but the only reason we aren't ahead of the Brewers was...
...4 of our 5 starting pitchers were disappointing in the 1st half...
* Hendricks - 4.21 ERA, 16 HRs in 92 IP, .245 BA and he's certainly struggled over the past several weeks with mechanics!
* Quintana - 4.31 ERA, 12 HRs in 85.2 IP, .247 BA...40 BB in 85.2 IP...not Chadwood, but not good...Q has been up and down inconsistent and disappointing overall
* Chatwood - 4.54 ERA, only 5 HR and 62 hits in 73.1, BUT 66 BB in his 73.1 is almost unreal...he needs to find more strikes in the 2nd half, quite obviously
* Darvish - 4.95 ERA, 7 HR and 21 BB in only 40 IP...his numbers (and performance) were very uncharacteristic even before he got hurt...let's hope he can turn it around
However,
* Lester has been fantastic...his best 1st half with Cubs by far! 10-2, 2.18 ERA, .208 BA, 1.08 WHIP...obvious All-Star
* Montgomery's numbers aren't eye-popping, but all of us who've followed the Cubs closely know he's been HUGE this 1st half...he has earned his rotation spot...enough said!
* Morrow and Chishek have outrageous numbers! Morrow - 1.54 ERA, 17 of 18 saves, .214 BA, 1.16 WHIP, I HR in 23.1 IP
* Cishek's numbers are as good - 1.75 ERA, 1 HR in 36 IP, 21 hits in 36 IP, .168 BA, 1.06 WHIP!
* Strop has been very good, Edwards was mostly good...let's hope both are healthy and ready for the 2nd half...and that Wilson, Rosario can handle the LH relief (will we get a LH reliever at the deadline?)
On pace for 92 wins after tough injuries and underperforming (I hope) SP...I take it! We should be in pretty solid position for the 2nd half, but who knows....it's MLB!
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SP is the big question going forward. Lester has been great, but also not a little lucky. If he reverts and no one else steps up, there’s danger here, Cherie.
Quintana seems to be the most likely to pick it up in the 2nd half. Lets hope so.
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and that Wilson, Rosario can handle the LH relief (will we get a LH reliever at the deadline?)
I think a LH reliever is pretty close to guaranteed now that it looks Montgomery is staying in the rotation. Duensing has been terrible for about half the season to this point, you can't trust Wilson at all in critical situations, and Rosario has been pure smoke and mirrors after his first couple of outings (1 hit, 3 BB, and 5 K in 4 1/3 IP in his first two outings; 14 hits, 7 walks, and only 6 K in 15 2/3 IP since).
Brad Hand is too expensive and Zach Britton has struggled after his injury, so it'll probably be Zach Duke (who has been really good outside of today against the Cubs) or Jake Diekman (who fits right in as a high walk, high K reliever).
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I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Wilson. He was the Cubs' most dominant reliever for 6+ weeks. He's definitely mercurial, but not many lefties in the game have his stuff.
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I'm not dismissing Wilson completely, I just don't see how they can trust him to be their top LH reliever. He's been a Cub for basically a full season now, and he's walked almost 8 batters per 9 IP. He's still walking more than 5 per 9 IP in the last two months when his results have been pretty good.
Of course, Diekman definitely doesn't solve that problem. And Duke probably doesn't either. The Cubs' extreme anti-strike-throwing tendencies are a huge problem for the entire team, so they can't fix that by just adding one LH reliever or another starter.
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I've had them in my knees a number of times, and I remember my wife once had one in her shoulder. She seemed to be in more pain than I ever felt.
Knees are super easy to inject. Shoulders are difficult, but not impossible. Elbows, even with a small needle and perfect
placement is so difficult to not cause pain due to the joint size.
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I had a cortisone shot in the shoulder a couple of months ago, and I don't recall much discomfort.
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I'll probably jinx him by saying it, but in addition to everything else he's done well, Baez hasn't committed an error since May 15.
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Shoulder have plenty of space for the fluid and for the needle to avoid the bone. The elbow has very little space for either.
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I'll probably jinx him by saying it, but in addition to everything else he's done well, Baez hasn't committed an error since May 15.
I'd be careful with the jinx possibilities. Remember, we're holding you 100% responsible for Darvish.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 35m35 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Brian Duensing on the 10-day DL with left shoulder fatigue and recalled RHP Dillon Maples from @IowaCubs.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 35m35 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Brian Duensing on the 10-day DL with left shoulder fatigue and recalled RHP Dillon Maples from @IowaCubs.
Can they backdate to, oh, say, June 5?
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About time!
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I'll probably jinx him by saying it, but in addition to everything else he's done well, Baez hasn't committed an error since May 15.
thanks Deeg :)
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Certainly these last 4 days have had to improve our RISP ranking, right?
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One stat I really like was early in the game when they showed the Cubs leading MLB by a wide margin in runners going from first to third with less than two outs
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I don't think it was limited to less than 2 outs, Bennett. Just going from first to third on singles.
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Nice June for the offense. Heyward, Baez and Russell were particularly good. The bullpen continues to be excellent the last few days notwithstanding. Now just get Hendricks and Quintana on track and this team will roll through the rest of the season. Chatwood I have no hope for.
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Cubs RISP-o-Meter: Now 8th in MLB in BA with RISP. They were 22nd on Thursday.
— Aaron Kennelly (@aaron_kennelly) July 1, 2018
Cubs batting average w/ RISP has jumped from .232 to .258 over last week. Insane! Another change, one that everyone was complaining about early, but nobody seems to be talking about now, is that the Cubs have a .359 OBP from the leadoff spot, fourth in baseball.
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) July 1, 2018
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J.A. Happ is a FA at the end of the year and the Jays are certainly going nowhere. If Darvish isn't back soon that's another name to watch.
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For a short term cure, I like Hamels. Last time at Wrigley, he threw a no-no.
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In other news, apparently Albert Almora can hit RH pitching. This season, in 185 plate appearances, he has .329 BA, .364 OBP, .451 SLG, .851 OPS.
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Hamels might throw the Cubs over the luxury tax unless the Rangers eat some money, which would make the prospect cost higher, plus Happ is better.
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Yeah, but Hammels threw a no hitter three years ago.
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Hamels might throw the Cubs over the luxury tax unless the Rangers eat some money, which would make the prospect cost higher, plus Happ is better.
Agree on Happ, but doesn't our front office have a better relationship with Texas than Toronto? Seems that way.
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I think they can make deals with anybody. Heck they've done multiple deals with Orioles and the Orioles dysfunction makes them difficult to trade with.
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The Cubs won't be adding a starter unless Yu is hurt worse than reported.
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Hence the discussion
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Bleacher Nation just tweeted out a story that the Blue Jays are scouting the Brewers system pretty heavily.
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Jon Lester is the NL Pitcher of the month.
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Edwards walked 2 and hit a batter in 2/3 at Iowa. Only 6 strikes out of 19 pitches.
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#Cubs Albert Almora Jr. is hitting .366 over his last 45 games played. He has a .388 OBP and .514 SLG in that span, dating back to May 14.
https://twitter.com/MLBRandomStats/status/1013884158094036994
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Bryant's shoulder is still sore and he will be reevaluated on Friday. Not good.
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There’s some buzz about that the Cubs are trying to get Michael Fulmer, but I can’t even imagine what that would cost. The Tigers supposedly turned down Schwaber for him last year.
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Caratini may be coming up: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/03/victor-caratini-is-getting-stir-crazy-in-iowa-and-he-was-a-scratch-tonight/
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Hug watch was in full force for a while, though.
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Both Mark Gonzalez and Carrie Muskat have noted that today's Game Notes make no mention of pitching assignments for the three game series with the Reds that starts on Friday.
http://mlb.mlb.com/documents/8/3/2/284208832/Game_Notes_July_4_vs._DET.pdf
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 5m5 minutes ago
Cubs notes: Anthony Bass has started his Cubs career without issuing a walk in his first 13 1/3 innings. Ed Hartig reports this is a franchise record dating back to at least 1907.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 6s6 seconds ago
The #Cubs today recalled catcher Victor Caratini from @IowaCubs. Catcher Chris Gimenez has been designated for assignment.
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The 40 man roster is now at 38.
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If one was especially tinfoil hatted, they might suggest the Gimenez move means the Cubs don't think Yu will be back anytime soon.
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By the way, this dysfunctional offense has 7 guys with an OPS over .800. And Anthony Rizzo (.765) isn't even one of them, though he will be. Heyward is also at .778 OPS, and Russell is at .759.
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Hope Edwards isn't hurt worse than they're letting on. Was wild again in Iowa tonight. 20 pitches, 7 strikes.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/05/cubs-pitching-coach-optimistic-timeline-for-darvish-return-is-late-july-which-causes-trade-problems/
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I'm not as worried about this as Brett. Darvish figured to be out for a few more weeks and there is really no reason to rush him back. If Darvish proves to be more seriously injured and can't come back this season, we'll have to hope that Chatwood steps up and that Montgomery continues to pitch well (and we'd probably be screwed in the postseason). Perhaps the Cubs can trade for a backup 5th starter, but I don't see them trying to do more than that.
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I'm more with Brett. I think the rotation is a huge problem.
Lester has been strainding runners at a 85% clip and his K's are down. That works until it doesn't
Quintana has been murdered when he's been through the lineup 3 times.
Hendrick's command is off and he's getting hit hard.
Chatwood can't throw strikes.
Darvish hasn't been healthy or effective.
I would make that argument that Montgomery has been the Cubs best starting pitcher so far. Quintana and Hendricks could figure it out still and Darvish could come back healthy and everything is perfectly fine for the playoffs. I'd certainly like more than a week to see how things go. Worse case scenario is the Cubs are looking for 4-5 innings from their starters and turning the game over to the bullpen. I'd feel better about that if Carl could throw some stikes..........
They were apparently looking at Eovaldi's last start. Matt Harvey could be a somewhat interesting trade name for some upside too.....
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Harvey is definitely an option. He's been a little lucky too, but his velocity is good and he seems a decent bet to be a decent 3rd-5th starter type.
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http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180704&content_id=284288144&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc
Article on buyers and sellers in the NL Central.
Interesting “feast or famine” numbers on the Brewers offense. In the second quarter of the season, they scored 6+ fourteen times and went 13-1. They were also held to 0 or 1 runs 10 times during that stretch. Sound familiar?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Is Harvey a Quality guy?
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Depends on what quality you mean.
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Albert Almora 2013 in A-ball:
.329/.376/.466, 3 HR, 6.3 BB% in 272 PA.
Albert Almora 2018 in MLB:
.329/.370/.462, 4 HR, 6.3 BB% in 271 PA.
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Albert Almora 2013 in A-ball:
.329/.376/.466, 3 HR, 6.3 BB% in 272 PA.
Albert Almora 2018 in MLB:
.329/.370/.462, 4 HR, 6.3 BB% in 271 PA.
Yup, just no improvement.
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Took him long enough.
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Of course, if he could hit righthanders...
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 1m1 minute ago
Edwards activated, Maples optioned, Bryant to hit soon
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Rob Z is off the DL and on his way back to Iowa.
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Jesse Rogers
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
11s11 seconds ago
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Theo sounded like nothing imminent on trade front. Duensing, Darvish etc probably forcing them to use up the whole month to assess. Oh, and he said no need for a bat so whoever wasted all that time on Machado IN MAY, shame on you. Ha.
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Theo now says Kris Bryant may need a rehab assignment.
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Chatwood needs to find an injury to blame so he can take some time off and try to get his head straight. Right now he is competing for the worst starter in baseball award. So who can they replace him with? Some have mentioned Underwood. Where is Eddie Butler in his rehab? What about dusting off John Lackey? What other options are there? I can't believe this will continue for long as is.
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Eddie Butler has struggled in his 2 rehab outings so far. He's given up seven runs across 2.1 innings.
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It's early, but Casey Coleman may be worth keeping an eye on.
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/07/06/former-cub-casey-coleman-dazzles-in-first-start-back-with-organization/
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Chatwood needs to find an injury to blame so he can take some time off and try to get his head straight. ..
I'd hoped his maternity leave might have that effect.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 16m16 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed RHP Anthony Bass on the 10-day DL (illness, retroactive to July 5) and selected the contract of RHP James Norwood from @IowaCubs.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 39m39 minutes ago
#Cubs Bryant and Duensing going to Tennessee for rehab
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James Norwood will be number 57. Others who have had that number:
Vito Valentinetti(1956-57), Goldie Holt (c)(1961-65), Rich Garces(1995), Augie Ojeda(2000), Antonio Alfonseca(2002-03), Jerome Williams(2006), Rocky Cherry (2007), Sam Fuld(2007), Chad Gaudin (2008), Scott Maine (2010-12), Jason Berken(2012), Zach Putnam(2013), Fernando Rodney (2015)
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Contreras is an All Star starter.
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And so is Baez.
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It seems like Lester and Morrow are strong candidates to make the team, with Almora having a possible shot at the final vote competition.
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Bote is excellent to have around as a depth option, but I wonder if he has more value as a trade chip.
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Bote is excellent to have around as a depth option, but I wonder if he has more value as a trade chip.
I was thinking earlier that Bote is the type of undervalued guy who the Rays seem to target a lot. With Eovaldi only having 13-14 more starts until free agency, I wonder if he could be a big part of what the Cubs could give up there if they decide to make a run at another starter.
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Lester makes the All Star team too.
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Cubs starting pitching is a dumpster fire and they are on pace to win 95 games.
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Considering his pre-season remarks and Molina's snarky comeback, it is gratifying to see Contreras starting.
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I hope Lester doesn't have to pitch.
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With the Cubs Sunday game before the break being in San Diego, having to fly all the way across the country to Washington, D.C. for the All-Star Game on Tuesday, and then having to be back in St. Louis for a game Thursday night, the Cubs all-stars don't get much of a break.
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Our 4th best starter sure is having one hell of a year.
So I was sceptical of Darvish and believed in Lester...
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Yeah, but don't forget Tyler Houston was one of your favorite players.
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Also, if we’re honest, Lester has been unsustainably lucky. That’s what makes the SP situation especially scary.
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I did like Tyler Houston.
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Hearing Zagunis, Tseng and Bote have been guys Blue Jays have looked at in Iowa.--Tommy Birch Des Moines Register in regards to J.A. Happ
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Done
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Who would posters here prefer, Eovaldi or Happ? Assume the price is similar and involves guys like Zagunis, Tseng, and/or Bote.
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Probably Happ.
I'd like to keep Bote though.
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Why is Eovaldi a thing now? He's been the definition of mediocre throughout his career and even his breakthrough year hasn't been all that stellar. His FIP is 4.16
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If you won't to go big on relief pitching go after Brad Hand. He's 28, under contract for three more years, and has been great the last three seasons.
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Preller wants a king's ransom for him. . . .
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Smyly was throwing in the outfield today according to Twitter. If he’s getting close, he might be the best non-Hand LH relief solution out there.
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Bryant has singled, homered, and driven in three in AA tonight.
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How's his baserunning coming along?
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But was he clutch?
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Eovaldi averages 97 and has a .807 WHIP. Is it really that hard to see the draw?
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Offset by 9 homers allowed in 48 innings.
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Whatever makes you happy.
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Ken Rosenthal says we're looking at Adam Jones and Curtis Granderson.
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Ken Rosenthal says we're looking at Adam Jones and Curtis Granderson.
* only if they trade a position player or on Aug 31.
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Smokies radio announcer said Bryant finished his rehab and flew out.
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Whatever makes you happy.
Results make me happy.
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You will always find some result that makes you unhappy. I'm pretty sure you were pissed when the Cubs won the WS because it took 10 innings. A real champion would have won in 9.
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Bryant goes 2-4 with a HR, and they want to see more...including a remark claiming that they wanted him to play 9 innings.
The next day, he goes 0-2, with 2 K's, and is pulled from the game in the 3rd inning and sent to the west coast.
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Ken Rosenthal says we're looking at Adam Jones and Curtis Granderson.
Heyman also mentioned Derek Dietrich.
None of those guys really fit unless something unexpected happens and the Cubs trade someone like Happ or Almora in a blockbuster.
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Ken Rosenthal says we're looking at Adam Jones and Curtis Granderson.
* only if they trade a position player or on Aug 31.
*IF* you want to shop pricier than David Bote level, Happ is the currency you've got. Due-diligence.
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You will always find some result that makes you unhappy. I'm pretty sure you were pissed when the Cubs won the WS because it took 10 innings. A real champion would have won in 9.
I'm pretty sure you say the stupidest ****. And none of it, as usual, has anything to do with the topic at hand which is Eovaldi's value.
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I would hate to trade Happ for a rental. More accurately, there's no way I would trade Happ for a rental.
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When the Cubs majors league players are mentioned iby Rosenthal it wasn't for rentals.
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When the Cubs majors league players are mentioned iby Rosenthal it wasn't for rentals.
Sure, but Rosenthal isn't the only one talking about Happ as a chip, and a lot of the guys supposedly we're looking at (Happ, Eovaldi) are rentals we probably couldn't get without including him.
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Hand would not be a rental. Signed for two more seasons plus a team option for '21.
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Yeah, good point. Don't think we'd go there anyway though.
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Schwarber and Baez in the home run derby.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 22m22 minutes ago
Chatwood, Hendricks and Lester vs. SD
That makes an All-Star appearance for Jon Lester pretty unlikely.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 22m22 minutes ago
Chatwood, Hendricks and Lester vs. SD
That makes an All-Star appearance for Jon Lester pretty unlikely.
good.
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Bleacher Nation discussing Levine's talk that the Cubs could pursue deGrom (Happ and/or Russell would be involved):
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/11/so-are-the-cubs-actually-in-on-mets-ace-jacob-degrom/
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I'm going to be bummed if they move Russell.
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I thought Russell was really doing well the past couple weeks.
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If the Cubs can get deGrom for a Russell centered package, you pretty much have to do it.
Hard to think we have the ammo to get him, though.
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I too doubt Russell is enough, but I'd do that in a heartbeat!
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Might as well ask them for Rosario too, if they're going to give up on him that quickly...
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I don't know how you give up Russell without getting another middle IF back, especially if Happ is involved too. Not that the two of them would be enough for deGrom.
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If the Cubs can get deGrom for a Russell centered package, you pretty much have to do it.
Hard to think we have the ammo to get him, though.
How much time left before DeGrom is a free agent?
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I don't know how you give up Russell without getting another middle IF back, especially if Happ is involved too. Not that the two of them would be enough for deGrom.
There is no way I would give up Happ and Russell for any pitcher. They are too fragile. Just go back into free agency this winter. At least it doesn't decimate your team if you get unlucky.
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How much time left before DeGrom is a free agent?
Not until after 2020.
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There is no way I would give up Happ and Russell for any pitcher. They are too fragile. Just go back into free agency this winter. At least it doesn't decimate your team if you get unlucky.
I would give up Happ and Russell for deGrom in a New York (Mets) minute, and so would any GM in baseball. 2.5 years of control on one of the top 5 SP in the game.
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I don't know all the GMs in baseball, so I can only speak for myself.
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The fact that DeGrom has had numerous injuries shouldn't be overlooked. He's only made more than 22 starts and pitched more than 150 innings twice. Only 200 innings once, and that just barely.
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Every GM in baseball. Not a moment's doubt.
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As long as you are certain
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Lester has been replaced by Greinke on the All Star roster.
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Lester has been replaced by Greinke on the All Star roster.
Why?
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Why?
Probably b/c he is pitching Sunday I am guessing.
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Is that a common practice?
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He'll still go and be introduced and all. He just won't be on the active roster.
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Is that a common practice?
Yes it has become common practice although I can't remember when it became common. Does anyone know?
It also seems like changing the all star break to 4 days and decreasing the DL minimum time to 10-days has led to an increase in DL trips for pitchers, especially pitchers picked for the all star game.
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For me the All Star break brings back memories of quitting smoking. First day there are cravings, but by day 4 you're climbing the walls. I want baseball!
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 25s25 seconds ago
Duensing here, Farrell optioned
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 9m9 minutes ago
#Cubs Baez will have his older brother Gadiel throw to him in HR derby. Schwarber has a friend from Florida, Mike Sinicola
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Sign Gadiel
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 31m31 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed RHP Carl Edwards Jr. on the paternity list and recalled LHP Rob Zastryzny from @IowaCubs.
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Edwards threw 31 pitches last night, so he almost definitely wasn't available for today's game anyway. Makes sense to get an extra arm up for the last two games before the break if his availability is going to be limited.
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Maybe why he let CJ throw so many pitches last night. If so, it might have been a few pitches too many.
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#Cubs Hoyer: "No matter what happens [with Darvish], we're going to be trying to acquire pitching and try to acquire depth. That's our focus no matter what."
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El Freaking Mago!! WOW!!
MVP to this point?
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Pretty sure we could trade Baez at this point for a decent relief pitcher.
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Jesse Rogers
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
7h7 hours ago
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Javier Báez is the 3rd player since the first All-Star Game in 1933 to have at least 19 HR, 71 RBI and 18 SB prior to the break.The other two are César Cedeño in 1974 and Dante Bichette in 1994. (@ESPNStatsInfo)
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Pretty sure we could trade Baez at this point for a decent relief pitcher.
Still think we could get Tyson Ross for him? I feel like a dope for being in favor of that deal a couple short years ago. Pretty sure everyone else felt the same.
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Not me. I’ve never been a Tyson Ross fan.
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PlayTwo - Did you ever buy that expensive "El Mago" jersey when MLB had that day where players could have a nickname on the back? You might have a collectors item.
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I sure did, Bennett. And I ain't selling it!
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Cubs are now #1 in the NL in:
- runs scored (469 - over 5/game avg)
- batting avg (.267)
- OBP (.345)
- OPS (.771)
Our offense has frustrated most all of us at times this season. Imagine other NL fans must feel about the offenses of their teams!
MLB pitching is REALLY hard to hit!!
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Also +30 on run differential over anyone else in the NL.
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Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Cubs are one of eight teams that have expressed interest in acquiring Orioles' left-hander Zach Britton.
Britton's market has perked up in recent weeks as the 30-year-old left-hander has seemed to have rediscovered his form. His velocity is up, his sinker is biting once again, and he was able to record saves on back-to-back days over the weekend for the first time this season. Levine notes that the Cubs also have interest in Padres' closer Brad Hand, though the asking price will be much higher there as Hand is under contract for two additional seasons while Britton is a free agent at season's end.
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Baez leads off for the NL in the all-star game.
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He's only had 9 AB hitting leadoff for the Cubs all year. Kind of weird to think about, especially with as many leadoff hitters Maddon has used this year.
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Any chance he tries to bunt his way on?
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Schwarber! What a great round 2 he had. 21 homers without using the extra 30 seconds.
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Kyle did a great job in R3, too, but ran out of gas. Great show under any circumstance!
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Long way to go (with 69 games left), so MVP discussion is premature...but what the heck.
Sure feels like Javy and Freddie Freeman are the leaders in the NL (by a lot) at this point. Both of their Teams are doing great and they are, too.
We've seen Javy all season and it's really, really hard to imagine Freeman has been better, but their numbers are pretty close and Freeman has been doing this for years, so one would think he has the inside track, assuming the Braves continue to do well.
Freeman is ahead of Javy:
* BA .315 to .292
* OBP .405 to .326
* OPS .938 to .892
But Javy is ahead of Freeman:
* HR 19 to 16
* Runs 61 to 59
* RBI 72 to 61
* SLG .566 to .533
* SB 19 of 21 to 6 of 8
Both are outstanding defensively, but Javy is a middle infielder who plays multiple positions.
Both have been truly fabulous this season. Javy is only 25 and Freeman has been performing at this level for three plus years (and was outstanding before that), so that's probably a tie- breaker in his favor, if their numbers end up nearly as close as they are now.
If the numbers stay close and Javy doesn't win MVP, that will be ok. His star sure seems to be ascending and he will have many more years...hopefully, all with the Cubs!!
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If the season were to end today, I would expect Freeman to win. But I believe Baez gets more well known and popular every day, and if he continues at this pace through the season, he has a pretty good chance of gaining more support.
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Fangraphs article with a Cubs trade proposal: Chatwood for Sonny Gray.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-cubs-and-yankees-should-swap-tyler-chatwood-and-sonny-gray/
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I would do that in a heartbeat.
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I'd do that in one of Robb's heartbeats too.
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Fantasy trade. Yankees would never do it.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 45m45 minutes ago
Also, Anthony Bass 1 IP 1 K for @IowaCubs at Memphis Tue night in a rehab outing. #Cubs
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 48m48 minutes ago
#Cubs roster moves: Bote and Zastryzny were optioned to @IowaCubs and Edwards was activated from paternity leave. Almora was expected back on Thursday
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Sharma on Contreras and framing.
https://theathletic.com/435390/2018/07/17/how-willson-contreras-is-correcting-one-final-flaw-on-his-way-to-becoming-the-best-catcher-in-baseball/
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Contreras is a good bit behind Realmuto for best catcher in the NL right now...
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Contreras is a good bit behind Realmuto for best catcher in the NL right now...
Measuring outcomes for half a season, sure. But that's a bit of a fool's errand when you consider that Realmuto is putting up ISO, BABIP, wRC, HR/FB, etc., all *well* above his career norms (.226 vs .160; .351 vs .326; 145 vs 108; 16.7% vs 10.5%) while Contreras is largely performing below or to well-established career averages (.170 vs .202; .344 vs .333; 122 vs 123; 9.1% vs 19.1%). There is going to be some correction in the 2nd half.
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Yeah, call me a fool, but I'm not trading Contreras for Realmuto. I don't think the Theocracy is either.
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framing
"Umpire fooling."
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Framing becomes an non-issue when robot umps are implemented...
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But they aren't implemented yet, and so it's not a non-issue no matter how much we'd like it to be. Whether it's "umpire fooling" or not doesn't matter - it's of significant practical importance in the game as it exists today.
As for "correcting", what does that even mean? Contreras is dead-last (98 of 98) among qualifying catchers in BP's framing stats. If correcting were just a matter of wanting to, wouldn't it be corrected already? The real question is whether this is something correctable for Contreras, and as good as he is in many other areas of the game, I think it's foolish to pretend this one doesn't matter. A lot.
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This has been his worst year at framing by BP by a lot. The good thing is it can be improved on and he seems to be a guy that will put in the time.
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88th out of 111 ranked last year.
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Measuring outcomes for half a season, sure. But that's a bit of a fool's errand when you consider that Realmuto is putting up ISO, BABIP, wRC, HR/FB, etc., all *well* above his career norms (.226 vs .160; .351 vs .326; 145 vs 108; 16.7% vs 10.5%) while Contreras is largely performing below or to well-established career averages (.170 vs .202; .344 vs .333; 122 vs 123; 9.1% vs 19.1%). There is going to be some correction in the 2nd half.
Realmuto has made some real changes to his game to get to this level. He has a .385woba and a .384xoba. Its not smoke and mirrors.
He did miss some time this year, however if qualified he'd be 16th in the league in woba and wrc+ right now. Wilson is in the 50s in both measures. Realmuto's bat has moved to a different level than where Contreras is at this year. This is not a knock on Contreras, he's having a great season. But so far he has earned 2.4 fwar in 341PA, Realmuto is at 3.5 in 303.
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He did miss some time this year, however if qualified he'd be 16th in the league in woba and wrc+ right now. Wilson is in the 50s in both measures. Realmuto's bat has moved to a different level than where Contreras is at this year. This is not a knock on Contreras, he's having a great season. But so far he has earned 2.4 fwar in 341PA, Realmuto is at 3.5 in 303.
For some reason it seems as if any reference to Contreras that doesn't glowingly paint him as the best catcher in baseball is now taken as a grievous insult in certain circles.
There is a middle ground here. Contreras can be among the best catchers in the NL at some things and suck at other things. With catchers, it's hard to know how to value some aspects of the job in context with the others. He's a good hitter with the potential to be a better one, has a phenomenal arm, is a great athlete behind the plate. He's also consistently among the very worst framers in baseball by whichever measure you choose to try and measure that skill. It's nice if he supposedly has the desire to be better, but there's so far no evidence the needle has moved whatsoever.
As regards the Amaya thing, it's the same all-or-nothing attitude. If Amaya emerges as an elite catching prospect and flashes major-league success in a season as the #2, to suggest that you consider the option of trading Contreras before he gets to his FA years when you might get maximum value - especially to an "old-school" organization that doesn't believe in statistical analysis - means you hate Contreras and want to dump him for the A-ball guy.
There are so many hoops to jump through with Amaya that it's a silly argument to have now, anyway. Amaya may not emerge as that elite catching prospect. He may get injured. He might struggle badly when he's eased into the majors. But if none of those things happen, it's unwise not to consider all viable options when the time comes.
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And clearly the best thing for the Cubs is if Amaya develops to the point where they are compelled to move Contreras.
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88th out of 111 ranked last year.
He was -2.8 runs last year. Sure it would would be better if it was positive, but -2.8 runs equates to -0.28 WAR which is pretty meaningless. The actual numbers are more meaningful than the rank.
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So people here actually think Wilson Contreras sucks.
Really?
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He's also consistently among the very worst framers in baseball by whichever measure you choose to try and measure that skill. It's nice if he supposedly has the desire to be better, but there's so far no evidence the needle has moved whatsoever.
He improved on his framing numbers from 2015 to 2016. He went from -5 runs to -2.8 while almost doubling his framing chances from 3653 to 6228. He can be among the worst at framing with out it really affecting his value.
On the BP framing stats #14 is worth 4.2 runs #78 is worth -2. Number 26 is worth 1.1 and Number 72 is worth -0.9. A large percentage of catchers are bundled up in the middle. Which is why the number is more important than the rank.
Old school organizations don't exist anymore. It is all a range on how much value is put towards analytics. All Contreras has to do is get back to his 2016 framing levels and he will have plenty of value. The Cubs will have plenty of choices to make in the coming years when guys start getting expensive in arbitration so having prospects emerge as replacements is going to be huge.
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He improved on his framing numbers from 2015 to 2016. He went from -5 runs to -2.8 while almost doubling his framing chances from 3653 to 6228. He can be among the worst at framing with out it really affecting his value.
On the BP framing stats #14 is worth 4.2 runs #78 is worth -2. Number 26 is worth 1.1 and Number 72 is worth -0.9. A large percentage of catchers are bundled up in the middle. Which is why the number is more important than the rank.
Old school organizations don't exist anymore. It is all a range on how much value is put towards analytics. All Contreras has to do is get back to his 2016 framing levels and he will have plenty of value. The Cubs will have plenty of choices to make in the coming years when guys start getting expensive in arbitration so having prospects emerge as replacements is going to be huge.
Willson Contreras did not reach the majors until 2016.
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Fake news
Willson Contreras did not reach the majors until 2016.
Fake news.
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Willson Contreras did not reach the majors until 2016.
I confused his 2016 AAA numbers with a major league season. This has really been his only bad year at framing in the majors. He was +5 in 2016 and -2.8 last year.
His framing numbers would improve if his set up was more quite. There is just way to much movement before he even catches the ball.
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As regards the Amaya thing, it's the same all-or-nothing attitude. If Amaya emerges as an elite catching prospect and flashes major-league success in a season as the #2, to suggest that you consider the option of trading Contreras before he gets to his FA years when you might get maximum value - especially to an "old-school" organization that doesn't believe in statistical analysis - means you hate Contreras and want to dump him for the A-ball guy.
Actually I have said several times that If Amaya is judged ready, Contreras should be traded the winter before he enters his last controlled year if they decide that they can not or should not sign him longer term. In fact, they should do it even if Amaya is not judged to be ready.
However, I feel that way about everyone. In the long run, I believe that it in the best interests of even contenders to trade their stars that they can not sign before they become free agents. It may hurt their chances in a particular year, but will greatly help their chances in future years.
Those that are viewed as key to the core of the team should be re-signed if possible, but in general, they should not take the chance of losing a star to free agency with little or no return.
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"His framing numbers would improve if his set up was more quiet. There is just way too much movement before he even catches the ball."
CUBluejays, I think your point is excellent! Maybe Willson drinks too much caffeine? I'm surprised our pitchers (or coaches) don't make him "quiet down" back there!
I think that must hurt his framing numbers and I'd think his pitchers would hate all his moving around.
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Probably as much as he hates pitchers who miss their location by a foot or more...
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I think Chatwood and Darvish haven’t helped, but Willson’s receiving needs work and he understands it.
The Sharma article was an excellent read.
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HBP shouldn't be something that's "normalized". The Cubs have some guys like Rizzo and Bryant who have been quite good at getting hit by pitches in their careers. That's not necessarily a fluke thing.
It may not be a fluke thing, but it also is not necessarily a "skill set."
In the case of some players, perhaps such as Ron Hunt of years ago who really couldn't do much with the bat and saw his only value as simply getting on base however he could, getting hit by a pitch, and conning an ump into thinking he had not tried to get hit, may well have been an actual skill. For other players, such as Bryant and Rizzo, who actually can smash the ball and do some real damage, but who may feel a need to somewhat crowd the plate, or at least avoid being pushed off of it or who feel a need to hang in on a pitch to see just what it is going to do as long as they can instead of pulling back anytime a ball might be a bit close, being HBP is more simply a side effect of their approach and not a result of any intentional act or any skill set.
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It is not a question of a "skill set". It is reasonable to "normalize" something that is random, and beyond the player's control and should be expected to revert to the average over time. In the case of Bryant and Rizzo, the high HBP rate is a result of something specific that they are doing (crowding the plate) and is likely to continue into the future if they continue to do it. Therefore, skill set or not, it is influenced by something within their control.
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Morrow to the DL, right biceps inflammation
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Levine is reporting the Cubs have interest in Britton and Bundy. If you are dealing for a starter from the Orioles I'd rather have Gausmen because of the injury history.
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Morrow to the DL, right biceps inflammation
Taking off his shirt?
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Morrow to the DL, right biceps inflammation
Yikes. Not good, although not surprising.
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Looking like Morrow is turning into Glass Joe. (Man I used to love that old Mike Tyson boxing game.) Anyway, the Dodgers knew what they were doing when they didn't sign him.
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Being an optimist, I'm kinda hoping that he's not too bad, but they figured with three days off for the break, that a DL needn't be much of a long break, and that it's no big deal.
But yeah, their usage from day one has suggested something wasn't really quite right.
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Looking like Morrow is turning into Glass Joe. (Man I used to love that old Mike Tyson boxing game.) Anyway, the Dodgers knew what they were doing when they didn't sign him.
Turning into? He’s always been glass, this was the risk in signing him.
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Levine is reporting the Cubs have interest in Britton and Bundy. If you are dealing for a starter from the Orioles I'd rather have Gausmen because of the injury history.
I think most of us would rather have Gausman, but presumably the cost would be higher.
Bundy does have three more seasons of team control after this one, but at this point he's pretty much a #4 starter. I don't know how much value I want to give up for a guy who's not someone you'd want to use in a postseason series. I'd rather focus on Britton and try and get someobdy with more upside on a rental, like Eovaldi.
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Bundy's got good stuff.
I wouldnt think he'd come cheap.
Him and Britton together would be a very steep price.
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Bundy's velocity is way down and his results in the majors are pedestrian, not to mention he has an injury history. The O's will try and inflate the price based on the fact that he was once an elite prospect, but he's really a mediocre pitcher who's never proven he could stay healthy enough to be mediocre over a full season.
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I’m surprised the Orioles would ever trade us an underperforming former top pitching prospect again considering how well that worked for them the last time they did that.
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We got lucky once, don’t expect it to happen again.
Also, Jake’s velocity hadn’t dipped 2-3 MPH at the time we traded for him. If pre-trade Jake compares to anybody it would be Chatwood.
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Source: #Cubs get Jesse Chavez from #Rangers for a minor-league pitcher (do not yet know name).
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I remember when they drafted him many moons ago. Went to Riverside CC instead.
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Tyler Thomas goes the other way.
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Tyler Thomas.
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Thomas has some upside.
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Levine:
“Brandon Morrow had an MRI on his forearm / biceps today . He said there was “stuff in there “ but nothing that needed a long term shutdown.”
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Chavez is nothing but depth like Hoyer said they're looking for.
Im betting we go strong after Britton.
#Cubs Maddon doesn't think they're done adding players. "They enjoy it too much" he said of front office.
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Unless it’s for the likes of Thor or de Grom I wouldn’t trade Happ or Amaya, and I’m not sure we have anything else that would fetch anybody really decent. We’re kind of stuck in-between as far as targets are concerned.
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Orioles GM Dan Duquette on MLB radio just said his next efforts will be to move the Zach Britton trade market forward . Sources point to the Chicago Cubs as a main player if they are convinced he is healthy.--Levine
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Chavez has some interesting splits.
Arlington- 8.04 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 2.25 HR/9, .333 BABIP, 5.14 ERA, 3.54 xFIP
Away- 7.94 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, .256 BABIP, 1.91 ERA, 3.96 xFIP
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Sharma on Lester.
"Lester seems to believe that he can have success without missing bats. His first half results suggest he’s right. Of course, those who lean on numbers would suggest that was all smoke and mirrors and what we saw on Friday could just be the beginning of an extreme regression. The reality is how Lester performs will likely be somewhere in between. The Cubs came into the year expecting Lester to settle into a role somewhere in the middle of this rotation, with Kyle Hendricks, José Quintana and Yu Darvish stepping up to pick up his slack. That’s what’s going to need to happen for the Cubs to really live up to their potential.
"In the meantime, Lester will continue to work on his mechanics while Hottovy and Borzello work to translate those numbers into something Lester can use. And the rest of us can just enjoy a good anti-stats rant from an old-school ballplayer."
https://theathletic.com/439917/2018/07/20/jon-lester-doesnt-concern-himself-with-analytics-bs/
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 6m6 minutes ago
Chavez here, Bass DL, Maples up, Norwood optioned, Farrell added as 26th player
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Bass has a back problem.
Jesse Chavez will wear #43
Now Bass' problem is described as a mid thoracic strain
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The #Astros and #Cubs are trying to match up prospects with the #Orioles on a Zach Britton deal. Others involved too. Heard the O’s would like to wrap it up by early in the week. With Familia, Hand and Herrera having moved, it’s ramped up the pace of talks.--Jerry Crasnick
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Most of the relief pitching talk for the Cubs has been Britton, but I wonder if they've talked to the White Sox about Joakim Soria. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, he's 12th among all relievers in fWAR and 6th in FIP. But I don't think he has the reputation at this point in his career to get much more than Familia got.
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Rogers:
Cubs lefty Drew Smyly (Tommy John) will throw a simulated game on Sunday then probably one more next week before heading out to the minors on a rehab assignment. He's expected to join the bullpen in August but the Cubs haven't ruled out a start for him if its needed as he's able.
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I have a fraction of the baseball knowledge of the everyday posters on this board, but if it were up to me I would have the Cubs stand pat and not trade away any assets for pitching help. I'd rather just hope Darvish gets back to his usual self, and count on Rizzo and Bryant returning to form. If those guys arent getting it done, I dont know that there are any pitchers out there that can put the Cubs over the top anyway.
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Buster Olney
Verified account
@Buster_ESPN
1h1 hour ago
More Buster Olney Retweeted Jerry Crasnick
To tack on to what Jerry writes in this post: https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/1020828701322350592 … Heard that the Orioles are indicating to other teams they're looking for a return at least equivalent to what the Royals got for Kelvin Herrera.
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For reference on Fangraphs that was 2 40 FV prospects and a flier. The acubs equivalent I think would be Wilson and Short/Vosler + insert Dominican flier. I’d be willing to do something like that. If they wanted Bolte I’d want a significant amount of IFA money.
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#Dodgers and #Braves don’t appear quite as engaged on Zach Britton as some other clubs. LA has luxury tax issues, as @Ken_Rosenthal has mentioned, and Atlanta is hesitant to dig too deep into the farm for a rental.--Crasnick
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Dillon Maples has been designated at the pitcher who returns to Iowa to bring the roster back down to 25, even though Luke Farrell had that "title" Saturday. Ferrell is the likely starter vs the Diamondbacks on Monday night.
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I've been meaning to post this because I don't think it was ever talked about here...a few days ago, Jesse Rogers had an article about what a Cubs/deGrom trade would look like:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster
A survey of major league baseball scouts, front-office executives (not associated with the Mets or Cubs) and media members zeroed in on a trio of Cubs who could be the centerpiece of a larger deal with the Mets: shortstop Addison Russell, infielder/outfielder Ian Happ and pitcher Mike Montgomery.
"Two of those three could start to get it done," one National League scout said.
He goes on to say the Mets would probably also need a couple of prospects. If they could get a deal mostly done with Montgomery and either Russell or Happ going to New York, I'm on board. I could see including Caratini as one of them (and getting Mesaraco back to fill the backup catcher role the rest of the season).
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Sign me up.
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I have a fraction of the baseball knowledge of the everyday posters on this board, but if it were up to me I would have the Cubs stand pat and not trade away any assets for pitching help. I'd rather just hope Darvish gets back to his usual self, and count on Rizzo and Bryant returning to form. If those guys arent getting it done, I dont know that there are any pitchers out there that can put the Cubs over the top anyway.
I have no problem with trades like the Thomas/Chavez one, but I would rather not see them trade ANY of their top prospects for pitching help.
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Chavez has better stuff than I expected him to have.
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It's the glasses.
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Russell,Montgomery,and Caratini for DeGrom.
Im in.
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I think there's a 5% chance at most that the Mets will actually trade deGrom in the next 10 days. But if they do, it seems like the Cubs are in better shape than most to make the deal:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Mets are engaging teams on their aces (in case) but since they seek major league talent back for deGrom or Syndergaard, they see wintertime as a better opportunity to deal an ace. Contenders loathe to subtract from teams in a pennant race.
I don't think there's anyone else who could offer someone as valuable as Happ or Russell without undermining what they gain with deGrom.
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I dont know any more than anyone else does but it looks to me like we have a team which could win another NL pennant.
I could easily see us trading for Britton and giving him the Chapman treatment and riding him all the way to the ground knowing we're not gonna resign him anyway.
It wouldnt surprise me one bit based on what Ive read to see Bundy or Gausman coming with him and I shudder to think what that would cost.
I think Happ and preferrably Russell would be the most likely to go if we do trade any of our core.
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Not trading any core for the likes of Britton or Bundy. DeGrom, different story.
Using those three names mentioned, if you exchange DeGrom for Montgomery, that's a nice flip. If Happ went, we'd miss him, but the existing outfielders could play a little bit more, and you could perhaps pick up somebody to be back-of-roster OF.
Britton, I'm just not confident he'd actually be any good. Maybe he would, and it would be a massive impact. **IF** you picked up Britton, and he was excellent; and **IF** Morrow was able to come back and be fine and good; plus Cishek/Edwards/Strop/Chavez/Wilson/Duensing/Rosario, you could have a really nice pen.
But, Chapman was really good. I'm not sure spending big for Britton, that you'll get a guy who's any better than Wilson was last year, or any more durable/reliable/available than Morrow has been this year, or any more consistent than guys like Strop or Edwards or Wilson or Duensing or Rosario.
But, what do I know, I'm no scout. If the Cubs pay strong for him, I surely/sincerely hope he's consistently available and that he pitches consistently and effectively. Would be fun.
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I think you can make the argument that Chavez is better than Britton.
I like taking a risk on Britton if he is cheap to acquire, but the control/command issues scare me.
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Astros and Cubs are the teams most linked to Britton, but Yanks are still trying, as are many others.--Heyman
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https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/07/23/mets-place-syndergaard-on-dl-due-to-viral-infection/23487742/
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Astros and Cubs are the teams most linked to Britton, but Yanks are still trying, as are many others.--Heyman
Britton has walked a guy in each of his last three outings, and 7 of his last 13 games.
He hasn't pitched a 1-2-3 inning in any of his last 6 outings.
He's pitched on back-to-back days only twice in the last month, and only three times this season.
I'd love to pick him up, and I think he's got a shot to be better than Maples/Hancock/Mazzoni/Farrell/Zastryzny/Bass.
I'd also love to think that pitching for wins and results, rather than pitching to showcase/rehab/not-be-hurt, might bring out his best.
Still, think it's important to realize that he's probably NOT going to be anything close to the former great Britton, and that it's hard to guess what his best might be now.
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This morning's MLB morning line-up listed 9 players who could be moved. Included Archer, deGrom, Britton, Hamels...Cubs were not listed as in on any of the 9. The teams listed as most likely to get these players were the Braves and Yankees as having the ML depth and minor league depth to make the deals.
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MLB is one rough ride!
Our Cubs were dominated by the Snakes in a game that was over after 1 because we didn't have a better farmhand starter in AAA than a guy (Luke Farrel) who had a 4 1/2 run ERA for Iowa.
Elsewhere tonight, two of our top starters in the minors, MIchael Rucker and Alex Lange, got thrashed in their AA and A+ starts, respectively, while Poncedeleon and several other young Cardinal starters (in the majors and minors) continue to thrive. Of course, the reality for Card fans is that they've been slapped down to .500 and are 8 1/2 games behind us!
About the only thing that makes me feel great about where Cubs are headed is that we still have at the helm the greatest team executive in the history of MLB. And even that almost unbelievable good fortune - and his organization's laser focus on finding more pitching - hasn't produced any starters we can feel really comfortable with going forward...and we are at the 99-game mark.
Closely following a MLB Team is enough to make a good baseball fan want to scream!
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Britton has walked a guy in each of his last three outings, and 7 of his last 13 games.
He hasn't pitched a 1-2-3 inning in any of his last 6 outings.
Buster Olney
Verified account
@Buster_ESPN
6m6 minutes ago
More
Zach Britton's last eight appearances:
8 innings
3 hits
4 walks
6 strikeouts
0 runs
Average astball velo has climbed to 95-96 mph.
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6.75 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.
That is hoping for a lot of improvement.
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Nice article by Rozner:
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20180722/rozner-chicago-cubs-fans-learning-to-live-a-new-normal
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Cubs are listed as one of three teams in on Britton this morning by MLB Morning news. (Astros and Yankees)
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6.75 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.
That is hoping for a lot of improvement.
Since we're cherry-picking, once could also say 0 ERA, .111 OBA and .88 WHIP.
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Rosenthal tweeted Cubs not as engaged on Britton and Yanks/Astrosin the leadrounding third. Caveats of the situation being fluid.
Cubs talked to O’s about Bundy/Gausmen.
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Understandable. Why look for RP's when you got Caratini and Rizzo?
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Brad Brach, damn... I'd really just as soon rely on the likes of Norwood and Bass.
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Plenty of relief pitchers on the market that give you more predictable production than Britton. I’m not opposed to the Cubs trading for him, I just wouldn’t want to give up much for him. He could return to being a stud or he could continue with his Brian Schlitter imitation.
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What have you heard on Brach?
He's in a much different class than Norwood and Bass...
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Velocity is down and walks are up. Orioles message boards seem to think he'd be cheap. I think the Cubs could do better.....
Truth be told I'd rather give Norwood/Maples a chance over Brach.
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Orioles message boards seem to think he'd be cheap.
Did all of that come from bigbird?
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I don't think it is based on any inside info, just a general opinion of the board.
They think they are getting a top 100 guy for Britton, which I just can't see.
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Some even suggested Amaya for Britton. Amaya for a two month rental. Give me a break.
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Did all of that come from bigbird?
No, it was Snuffleupagos.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 41m41 minutes ago
The #Cubs today activated RHP Eddie Butler off of the 60-day DL. RHP Luke Farrell has been optioned to @IowaCubs.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 30m30 minutes ago
Darvish done. Now everyone meeting outside the bullpen (not Darvish). Same scenario played out in LA a while back with bad results. See if this time around is different.
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Bryant's shoulder is sore again. He may get tomorrow off as well.
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According to multiple reports on Twitter, Darvish’s bullpen session went well, as the righty threw 16 pitches and (presumably) felt fine. However, Joe Maddon and the Cubs will, apparently, not let us know about the next steps until tomorrow.
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What does "Darvish done" mean? Done for the day? Done for the year? Done for another month?
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oops, Deeg had my answer.
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Heh, that was my first take when I read that phrase too. Badly worded tweet.
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Carrie Muskat
Verified account
@CarrieMuskat
Follow Follow @CarrieMuskat
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#Cubs Maddon on Bryant: "Rest would be the best thing for him now but we're not necessarily ready to do that. For right now, it's trying to manage it and get him through the season."
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670 The Score @670TheScore 46s46 seconds ago
#Cubs closer Brandon Morrow still has 'a lot of pain' in biceps and isn't expected to return from DL when eligible this weekend
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Is a biceps injury a precursor to Tommy John or just the elbow and forearm?
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CBJ probably knows better, but i have seen folks mention that persistent "biceps tightness" is a potential precursor, its a big talking point on some twitter feeds for pitching prospects.
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Anything near the elbow is a concern for TJS. His MRI showed something, but they didn’t get specific.
You have to wonder how agressive the Cubs are going to be at the deadline. With Bryant’s shoulder, Rizzo’s struggles and the rotation being a dumpster fire and Marrow not remaining healthy....
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The first thing the Cubs need to figure out is how to get Bote on the roster permanently. I know people love La Stella...but if Bryant's availability is going to be spotty the rest of the year (and they're already eating up a roster spot with a part time player in Zobrist), then it seems like a pinch hit single specialist is a luxury they can't afford.
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I'm not sure why they don't just put Bryant back on the 10 day DL and call up Bote. If Bryant's shoulder is bad enough to keep him out of a few games, you might as well give him plenty of additional time to rest it.
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Additional time likely won't help.
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The truth is we might get more from Bote than an injured Bryant.
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I smell a significant move today.
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I smell a significant move today.
Make sure you are near a bathroom all day then. It could be explosive.
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Though he's not ready to come off the DL Cubs closer Brandon Morrow (biceps) says he's moving in the right direction. He has less pain than when he went down. He doesn't think it's an injury which will linger and is hopeful to pick a ball soon.
Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
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Though he's not ready to come off the DL Cubs closer Brandon Morrow (biceps) says he's moving in the right direction. He has less pain than when he went down. He doesn't think it's an injury which will linger and is hopeful to pick a ball soon.
He's moving in the right direction and doesn't think it'll linger....but it'll be a later point before he can do the simple task of picking up a baseball. ???
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As rumors of pending Jays trade of J.A. Happ heat up, multiple sources confirm Cubs one of many teams in mix.--Wittenmeyer
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In the end, the Cubs may be forced to settle for Darvish as their big "acquisition" of the deadline and hope for the best. Happ and Amaya are too good to trade for a rental, and the Cubs don't have other prospects good enough to tempt teams even for a decent rent-a-player.
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Cubs were at Archer’s start on Sunday and could have interest:
https://amp.mlb.com/287336084-chris-archer-trade-rumors-value-is-rising.amp.html?
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In the end, the Cubs may be forced to settle for Darvish as their big "acquisition" of the deadline and hope for the best. Happ and Amaya are too good to trade for a rental, and the Cubs don't have other prospects good enough to tempt teams even for a decent rent-a-player.
Where is Smily's rehab going?
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Where is Smily's rehab going?
You think a guy coming off TJS is likely to be effective enough to be an impact acquisition, even if he has no setbacks? I know they expect him to pitch this season, but I think anything you get from him has to be considered a bonus.
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You think a guy coming off TJS is likely to be effective enough to be an impact acquisition, even if he has no setbacks? I know they expect him to pitch this season, but I think anything you get from him has to be considered a bonus.
No, I'm not sure even a healthy Smily would be that great. I was just asking whether he was rehabbing. sheesh.
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No, I'm not sure even a healthy Smily would be that great. I was just asking whether he was rehabbing. sheesh.
Well, they’ve already announced he was going out for a minors rehab assignment in the next couple of weeks. I haven’t heard anything to contradict that.
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More talk that they are looking to stretch him out as a possible starter vs the earlier plan of having him in relief too.
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My impression is that they want to stretch him out during his rehab, but that he would likely only pitch in relief in ML games this season.
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The Score was implying stretching him out has a newer part of the plan. Coming back from TJS command will be an issue that could cause trouble with him starting.
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Wonder what Archer's price tag is. For all his talent he hasn't come close to reaching his potential.
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Padres are unwilling to trade Gore or Tatis for him.
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Wonder what Archer's price tag is. For all his talent he hasn't come close to reaching his potential.
I would think it starts with Happ and Caratini. Happ is probably the Cubs' most valuable realistic trade candidate (they're not dealing Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, or Baez at this point, and Happ is cheaper/has more control than Almora, Russell, and Schwarber), and his versatility seems to make him a Rays-type player. And I've read a lot that catcher is the Rays' biggest need for the future.
I'd be a little worried if the Rays are willing to trade Archer at this point. He's had a down year and spent some time injured, so his value is down. If he has a good second half, he'd be significantly more valuable in a trade this offseason. So if the Rays were to push to trade him now, I'd be worried that they think his value is going to continue to drop.
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Since Quintana has blown up trading for big name pitchers scares me. Drafting pitchers scares me. Signing pitchers scares me. Pitchers just stink.
Maybe the Rays are on to something. Just have 3 guys pitch 3 innings a game.
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Bryant is having shoulder problems that some think will be chronic at least for the rest of the year. I don't think that this is the time to think about trading Happ or Russell for a pitcher who is already having a worse than Quintana or Hendricks, who we are unhappy with.
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In what ways have Quintana and Hendricks been better than Archer this year? They have slightly better ERAs...but all the underlying metrics point to Archer being the far superior pitcher in 2018. I'm not saying the Cubs should necessarily give up Happ in a deal for Archer--I'm pretty apprehensive since he missed time with an arm injury this year. But really, comparing Archer's performance this year to the performance of Cubs pitchers is a good argument in favor of making a strong offer.
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Part of me wants Archer on the team.
I think he’d be the Cubs best pitcher, but his ERA has under performers his FIP/xFIP going on three seasons. His lefty splits are worse this year and he’s a 2 pitch pitcher. Through in the missed time and I’m just seeing bad things. I will admit I’m jaded by Quitana/Darvish/Chatwood/Hendricks all being not great this year.
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Archer has always underperformed his stuff. His quality is not the equal of his reputation. Good pitcher, but not worth the likely cost.
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Archer has always underperformed his stuff. His quality is not the equal of his reputation. Good pitcher, but not worth the likely cost.
2013-2014 his ERA was better that his FIP/xFIP
2015 he was just excellent, 3.23/2.90/3.01.
2016-2018 has been the real underperformance.
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Just wondering, would anyone trade Carl Edwards for Chris Archer?
Edwards is our last leftover from the Garza trade after all.
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Yes.
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Just wondering, would anyone trade Carl Edwards for Chris Archer?
Edwards is our last leftover from the Garza trade after all.
As skeptical as I am of Archer, in a heartbeat.
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Looks like there's starting to be some buzz about the move I suggested weeks ago for the Cubs, Cole Hamels. He's no ace these days, but he's not the bum some are making him out to be. Given that he's basically a contract dump at this point, the Cubs' lack of prospect depth isn't really an issue there.
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Home/road splits are staggering and Texas is playing like Coors this’s year.
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Would Hamels put the Cubs over the luxury tax threshold?
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Bryant back to the DL, Bote up.
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I wonder how expensive Zack Wheeler would be? I've always liked his stuff. His numbers aren't great but he might be a nice change of scenery guy
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Bryant back to the DL, Bote up.
I need a vacation. I saw this post and went to CBS to make the changes. I need sleep.
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Bryant getting another MRI..........
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Hearing #Cubs are making inroads to try to land Cole Hamels from the #Rangers
Hopefully getting out of Arlington will fix him.
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Between rest of salary this yr plus buyout on 2019 option, Hamels owed roughly $14.2M. Hear that if deal with #Cubs goes thru they will pick up about $4M and give up secondary prospects. But NO deal is in place yet, Cubs just more involved than other suitors.
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Secondary prospects could very well describe the Cubs entire system.
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Some Twitter chatter about Diekman possibly being in a Hamels deal as well...
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Like Britton before him, Diekman has the same problem as everyone else on this Cubs staff--he just doesn't throw enough strikes.
They need to prioritize adding a starter and a reliever who throw strikes. Handedness doesn't matter as long as they don't have severe splits.
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High my name is Jessie Chavez...........
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Glad they got Chavez. Now add 2 more like him.
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Bowden also thinks Hamels to Cubs might happen, though there's probably about a 70% chance his "source" is Joel Sherman's Twitter account.
Jim Bowden @JimBowdenGM
#Cubs in strong pursuit to land Cole Hamels from #Rangers for lower level prospects according to source.
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Hamels is exciting, especially if he replaces Chatwood.
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__________ is exciting, especially if he replaces Chatwood.
I dont think it matters what the _______ is at this point.
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Davep's grandmother would be exciting if she was replacing Chatwood.
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Heyman joins in and says Hamels is a possibility:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Cubs are indeed talking to the rangers about Cole Hamels. Hear it has a decent chance. Rangers would have to cover a portion of the $14M to go. Cubs are on Happ's small pre-approved. he's pitched very well there (including no-hitter). @Joelsherman1 1st mentioned possibility
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Hearing #Cubs are making inroads to try to land Cole Hamels from the #Rangers
Hopefully getting out of Arlington will fix him.
He's not really broken, unless you consider a MIRP broken.
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Like Britton before him, Diekman has the same problem as everyone else on this Cubs staff--he just doesn't throw enough strikes.
They need to prioritize adding a starter and a reliever who throw strikes. Handedness doesn't matter as long as they don't have severe splits.
I'd take Diekman in a heartbeat if he's basically a throw-in. Hard to hit and throws hard. Yeah his has control issues but Duensing is dead weight at this point, so why not add Diekman to the mix as a viable option.
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Looks like it's down to the Cubs vs. the Braves for Hamels.
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I think the urgency of the Cubs pitching dilemma means they almost have to land Hamels even if they have to give up a half decent prospect to do so, given that there are really no other obvious options. The entire staff is a dumpster fire if the bullpen implodes, which is almost inevitable given how many guys have overperformed career norms and overwork.
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I'd take Diekman in a heartbeat if he's basically a throw-in. Hard to hit and throws hard. Yeah his has control issues but Duensing is dead weight at this point, so why not add Diekman to the mix as a viable option.
If Diekman is just a throw-in who replaces Duensing on the roster, then that's fine, it's a slight improvement. But my concern is that if they get Diekman, then they'll consider their deadline work done and they won't continue to pursue another better reliever. Whether they get Diekman or not, they still would benefit from adding one more good reliever.
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Bote needs to be in the lineup pretty much every day until Bryant comes back so the Cubs can really see what they have. If he had a strong showing the rest of the way in 100-150 PAs, that opens up a lot of options in the offseason.
He also seems like a nice guy to try out in the leadoff spot if the Cubs decide to move Rizzo back down a spot or two. He gets on base and runs the bases well, so he has the qualities you want in a leadoff guy.
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The Phillies might also be in on Hamels.
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Let speculation run wild:
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
@Pelicanbaseball @Pelicanbaseball
LINEUP CHANGE: @MannyRondon47 will make the start in today's game instead of Rollie Lacy.
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ESPN Chicago guys seem to think this will happen.
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs made a "strong push" for Hamels just today hence all the chatter about him. And it is indeed getting close, per source and other reports. Btw, Jesse Chavez likened pitching in Texas to pitching in Cincinnati. Ball flies. Thinks he'll be just fine once he gets out of there.
David Kaplan @thekapman
The Cubs are closing in on a deal for Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers. It is not yet done but it is progressing that way. He will still have to pass a physical as well. @ESPNChiCubs Is also on this story follow him as well for updates. @Joelsherman1 first on this.
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DJ Wilson was activated from the DL and not playing either.
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Seems like Hamels will be traded tonight:
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
Source says to “expect a resolution soon” on the Hamels front.
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Hamels to Cubs is done.
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Hopefully Cole Hamels will be this year‘s version of Justin Verlander. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Wow, if the Cubs were willing to expose their big bullets like DJ Wilson and Rollie Lacy, they must be all in and expecting Texas to pick up most of the salary, eh? :):)
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So we got Hamels for free.
Ill take it.
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Free. Except for the money and minor league players.
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Hamels has $20M contract for next year.
$6M buyout.
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I believe the buyout is included in the $14 million he is owed this year and the rumor is the Cubs are on the hook for $4 million total.
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Unless the Cubs decide to give up on and release Duensing (or DL somebody), Rosario is going to bite the dust with the Hamels acquisition.
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Unless the Cubs decide to give up on and release Duensing (or DL somebody), Rosario is going to bite the dust with the Hamels acquisition.
Eddie Butler?
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I think the default transaction would be to option the guy with options remaining and keep everybody in the organization.
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Getting Rosario off the roster is probably a good thing. He's a time bomb.
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Hamels 2018 stats away from home: 55.1 IP, 46 H, 22 BB, 61 SO, Opp BA .222, Opp OPS .697, 2.93 ERA, 1.229 WHIP.
I like this acquisition very much.
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Getting Rosario off the roster is probably a good thing. He's a time bomb.
First get rid of the ones who have stopped ticking and have gone off.
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Lacy and a PTBNL.
Longenhagen tweeted Lacy’s velocity. 88-90 T 92.
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Let's hope Hamels finds some of his old form. I'm hesitant to get on the home/road split bandwagon; that was supposed to work for Chatwood after leaving Coors as well.
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Hamels getting rid of HR is something that could actually happen. Chatwood’s road splits were driven almost all by BABIP being really low.
Best case is he is a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy. Worst case is he is still better than Chatwood.
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Craig and I have often pointed out that some players are given great opportunities and fail to take advantage while other players make an impact. Chatwood is one of these, Bote the other.
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Ah, found it...
http://www.baseballbytheyard.com/joe-maddens-stages-of-a-ball-player/
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https://www.instagram.com/p/BluFXaAAfbT/?hl=en&taken-by=darvishsefat11
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Hamels ERA >10 over last five starts.
Gotta be overdue for a run of excellent ones, yes?
Will be interesting to see what Maddon does with the staff. All of us fans assume it will mean Chatwood goes to relief, and I assume that's true. But, sometimes Maddon has other ideas? May want to give Montgomery some skips, and maybe Hendricks and lester too. So it wouldn't totally shock me to see them kind of mix-and-match for a while, and see Chatwood get some more starts.
I'll also be curious to see how Chatwood does in relief. He is what he is, so hard to imagine a change in role giving him any more clue where his fastball might go. But I might rather have him trying to pick up some innings rather than Butler or Farrell.
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At least for now assuming Chatwood goes to the pen, four of the five starting pitchers for the Cubs are LHP.
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A six man rotation could be possible to give everybody some extra rest with a whole bunch of games in a row happening.
Chatwood in a 1 inning role would be kind interesting. A little more velocity of the fastball and the walks aren’t as big of a deal in short stint.
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Slightly interesting. Jeff Wilson is reporting the trade is Lacy+another pitcher+PTBNL. The other pitcher is not a prospect and he isn’t sure if that means a MLB Cub player or a minor league throw in.
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Montgomery's starts prior to the last one were pretty pedestrian. It wouldn't surprise me if it's Monty that goes back to the pen. Maybe to rest him a bit.
It's not what I would do, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Chatwood should absolutely go to the pen. Not not is he terrible at the moment, but the toll his starts take on the pen is substantial. But the Cubs may justify sending Montgomery on the grounds that they don’t want 4 lefties in the rotation, or they want to limit Monty’s innings. It would be a mistake but it could happen.
It’s pretty clear that whatever is messing with Chatwood’s mechanics and psychology can’t be fixed while he’s actively in the rotation. Maybe a stint of downtime can reset him or something - it’s a better option than continuing what’s obviously not working.
In any event, the Hamels trade itself is hard not to like. By all accounts he’s a good guy, he has postseason experience, and there’s no indication his arm is shot. Maybe he can get back to where he was a couple of years ago, maybe not, but the cost is bearable to find out.
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The only thing Chatwood is good for at this time is avoiding the embarrassment of having to pitch regulars like Rizzo and Caratini. I think what concerns me most is that when he NEEDS to throw a strike, he cannot. If the bases are loaded and the count is 3-2, you know the pitch is going to the backstop. That's almost a gip issue. The more pressure, the worse he does. An MLB pitcher can't yield to pressure that way. I was all for him coming to the Cubs, but if they DFA'd him right now, what team would inquire about him?
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It’s weird, bases loaded has actually been the split that has been most effective. No walks, only a .486 ops against, and a good strikeout rate. It’s only 15 at bats so it means nothing but it’s not what I would have expected given his generally terrible performance.
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Wow, that is surprising. I can only recall Contreras leaping out of his shoes to try and stop the ball.
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My guess is that the Cubs stick with Chatwood in the rotation for now, moving Montgomery into his usual relief/spot starter role. When Darvish returns, they might go with a 6-man rotation until/unless the NL Central race is tight enough that they can't afford Chatwood starts.
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What a horrible move that would be.
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I think they're worried about Montgomery's innings and want to keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason.
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I’m more worried about the inning counts of the multiple bullpen guys who risk getting worn out due to Chatwood’s starts.
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THe Hamels deal is official. Eddie Butler is also going to Texas.
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Butler, Lacy, and a PTBNL...
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According to Mooney Cubs are only responsible for $5 million of Hamels contract. Hard to believe.
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According to Mooney Cubs are only responsible for $5 million of Hamels contract. Hard to believe.
5 of 14.4
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Heh. If I remember correctly, it was the Rangers who outbid us for him back when. Is that right?
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The Rangers are paying $2 million of his salary. If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out. If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.
FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
Lester better ask for something good in return then.
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Lester has both 34 and 35?
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FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
That would be disappointing. There have been very few bright spots on the farm this year, but Steele looking good in his rehab is one of them.
Officially anyway, the PTBNL will come from a predetermined list of pitchers and position players.
Jeff Wilson
Verified account
@JeffWilson_FWST
2h2 hours ago
#Rangers will select player to be named in Cole Hamels trade in a few weeks from a predetermined list of minor-leaguers, Jon Daniels said. List includes pitchers and position players.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
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If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out. If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.
By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is? No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.
About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong. Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
PTBNL in trades like this often are determined in part based on how well the named player or players do. Hamels does well, and TX picks from list A made up of a few decent prospects. Hamels stinks and they pick from list B which is made up of guys the Theocracy might be considering giving their releases to right now.
Appears to be little more than a salary dump, with Hamels not likely to produce anything more than league average pitching.... but even league average would be better than what they have been getting from the 5th spot and should help win a couple more games with the Cubs' lineup. Hamels is not really likely to play a role in the post season rotation, but he is insurance in case another starter is lost, and if he is just good enough as a starter to reduce wear on the bullpen, then could be of serious value during the playoffs.
Looks like a good move for both teams.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 23m23 minutes ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Alec Mills from @IowaCubs.
Because Hamels won't arrive in St. Louis until Saturday.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
Steele and Marquez are the only 2 lefties in the org that throw hard. I hate trading on of them.
By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is? No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.
About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong. Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.
That made me think that Steele couldn't be the return, because being able to get him for Chatwood's salaray would be a possible benefit. He might be cheaper on the open market though.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 17m17 minutes ago
Darvish said he felt some pain early in today's 23-pitch pen session but adjusted delivery to more like he threw early in season and was fine. Stressed he's not concerned and expects one more pen before possible sim game.
Kelly Crull @Kelly_Crull 20m20 minutes ago
Darvish believes he took a positive step forward after throwing 23 pitches in today’s bulllpen. Made an adjustment in his take back & felt no pain. Is excited about throwing again soon.
In other words, his return is still very much up in the air.
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I actually think that is a positive report.
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No comment.
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2013-2014 his ERA was better that his FIP/xFIP
2015 he was just excellent, 3.23/2.90/3.01.
2016-2018 has been the real underperformance.
Forget about actual performance, and forget about the fact that this is a guy you have been arguing to get for years now, but just focus on the three time periods: 2013-2014 is time period A; 2015 is time period B; 2016-2018 is time period C.
It is now the middle of 2018.
Which one is most likely most predictive of future performance? A, B or C?
Hard to image how in abstraction you would weight A or B more heavily than C.
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3 straight NLCS isn't failing, being unlucky............
Lots of folks seem to forget that, even some who are old enough to remember the 50's thru the 70's....
Some Cub players have under performed based on their past accomplishments. Rizzo, Chatwood, Quintana, and Hendricks fall into that category. Others have not progressed as much as some might have hoped. Others have had health problems that have slowed them down. My view is that the under performers are likely to improve, in some cases markedly, in the second half. The inconsistency of the young players is likely to continue, but Happ, Russell, Almora, and Schwarber have all performed well overall and I doubt any of them has reached his peak. Injuries are impossible to project, but it seems likely that Bryant will come back strong, and CJ should be ready soon. No doubt, this Cub team should be in better position in the standings than it is, but somewhat underperforming in the first half is not that big a deal. They simply will need to perform closer to their talent level (and avoid bad luck) and they will win the Central, probably with ease.
This is the reason for the rebuilding strategy I explained (repeatedly) from the middle of 2006 thru 2007 -- because you can't be certain what you are going to get from any one player, or even two or three, you create a large pool of talent which will give you a large window of opportunity over an extended time. And that is exactly what the Theocracy has done.
If the news is bad on Darvish (I sure hope not) keep an eye on Cole Hamels as a potential name linked with the Cubs.
And it appears you nailed it.
I’m guessing you’re showing your true colors.
As shown so many times before.... the only question is why you would think there was any reason to "guess."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhM6dPm5YQo
Not everyone said that (and he was at South Bend, not Des Moines). I saw some reports that he was sitting around 90 mph. For example:
Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
He said it'd be up to front office and staff as to when he returns. Was throwing some 90-mph pitches we assumed were cutters but he said he didn't throw any and those were FBs.
In any case, the reason you've gotten criticized for your takes around here is because what you've said mostly amounts to "Asian pitchers get hurt more often" with no nuance. And now you're acting like Darvish has some kind of personality flaw that makes him lazy even though you have absolutely zero evidence for that. It's no wonder people think your motivations are based on something other than just performance on the field.
If your take had been "Darvish has thrown a lot of innings, has had injury problems already, and he's missed time almost every year since coming to MLB, so we shouldn't offer him a lot of money" instead of "Every Japanese player but Ichiro has flat out stole money and the pitchers usually don't come over here until their arm is about to fall off. Let somebody else get analized," maybe people would take you more seriously on this topic.
I think everyone realizes Dusty is serious. It is just that when offering opinions on non-Anglo players his opinions are, well, sometimes a bit tainted....
In my own viewing of the video posted here of Darvish in one of his South Bend games (his only SB game?), it appeared he was somewhat short-arming his pitches. I'm not familiar enough with him to know if that was normal for him even when healthy, and the camera angle was not the best, but that video made me wonder if there might be some elbow or forearm problem on the immediate horizon.
As far as the rich athlete concept goes I just think that's human nature.
You're gonna bust ass until you get paid and then you'd lose that fire because you did.
I'd do the same.
If anyone wanted an example of the psychological concept of projection, that post might serve as a prime example.
Maybe you would. Lots of guys, however, mess themselves up trying to hard to earn the contract that they don't (and I hate to use this) play within themselves. Lester and Heyward are a couple of examples, but there are plenty of others. I'm guessing Darvish is in that camp as well.
I suspect what you describe -- athletes trying their best to play thru injuries and injuring themselves even worse in the process -- is far more common than what Dusty described.
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...
FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
Yeah, I'd be very disappointed if they're giving up a guy of his ceiling for 2 months of crummy Hamels. Especially after the seeming info last night that made it seem like the Cubs weren't really giving up anybody very meaningful.
After his successful rehab, high velocity recently, and excellent results thus far, I'd have Steele in my Cubs top 10. (That's not saying much, given the lack of competition.) But still, we've got so few with any degree of ceiling, I'd not like to give away one of the few who does, for a brief rental of a relatively washed up guy.
But, we overpay every July, so that would seem in keeping with how Theo operates. So it may not be implausible. Hopefully it isn't true, and the Rangers people are just trying to dig up somebody in the Cubs farm who might turn into a steal.
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Isn't he already a Steele?
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Hopefully it isn't true, and the Rangers people are just trying to dig up somebody in the Cubs farm who might turn into a steal.
Yeah hopefully they’re rummaging around for the next Zack Godley and won’t wind up finding him.
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I see a lot of Brad Ziegler to the Cubs rumors on Twitter.
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You’re kidding...
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Nothing done.
Just interest.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/27/cubs-among-two-teams-showing-most-interest-thus-far-in-marlins-righty-brad-ziegler/
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Someone to be a poor man's Cishek after Cishek's arm falls off.
Steele as part of the Hamels deal would definitely suck, though I suspect there's a far better chance the Cubs pick up Hamels' 2019 option than most around here believe.
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Isn't he already a Steele?
Are you channeling PlayTwo now?
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Theo said the Cubs are not necessarily done dealing: “We’re still out there looking and we will be right until the last minute before the deadline. It gets harder after July 31.”--Wittenmeyer
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He's not going to be a factor this season, but I'd still like to see the Cubs sign Trevor Rosenthal.
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I told him that on Twitter yesterday.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/27/cubs-among-two-teams-showing-most-interest-thus-far-in-marlins-righty-brad-ziegler/
He's got a salary of $9M/year. Wouldn't mind him at all as another salary dump, but I sure hope they don't give up any real talent or prospects for him.
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Lone star baseball is now walking back Steele being in the trade.
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Lots of talk the Cubs are serious about Barraclough from the Marlins. I don't see it given what they're going to be asking, given he has 3+ seasons of control. Never been able to throw strikes, velocity is down this season. Unless he's cheap (and Miami has no incentive to let him go cheap) it's a pass for me.
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So I'm pretty excited to have a staff of Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, and Hamels. 5 seasons ago it was Travis Wood, Jeff Smardjoqiozkdfgnlasdk, Edwin Jackson, and a combination of Rusin, Villanueva, Garza and Feldman. My how times have changed.
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Cubs beat writers have all tweeted out that Chatwood will be going to the pen and Hamels will likely make his debut on Wednesday.
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Cubs beat writers have all tweeted out that Chatwood will be going to the pen and Hamels will likely make his debut on Wednesday.
That's official, and Chatwood talked about it after the game. He seems to be realistic enough not to be angry about it, just depressed. But one could take his answers to be not especially complimentary of his pitching coach.
Problem is, no one in the rotation apart from Lester is pitching well, and even he's started to spring some leaks. Lot of pressure on Hamels to be a stabilizing force right away, as Darvish seems to be at least a month away still.
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The Chicago Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela. (Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe)
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Old news
Chicago Cubs @Cubs 6h6 hours ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Cory Mazzoni from @IowaCubs. RHP Alec Mills has been optioned to Iowa.
Mazzoni pitched today so he'll probably go back to Iowa on Sunday. James Norwood has spent the requisite 10 days in the minors so he'll likely be called up.
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Daniel Greenberg
@ChiSportUpdates
1h1 hour ago
More
The Chicago Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela. (Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe)
Obviously Kela would be a tremendous get - a 25 year-old closer with lights-out stuff and multiple years of control. But what in the world could we offer that would even tempt them, apart from Russell or Happ? And I'm not giving up Russell or Happ (or Amaya) for a relief pitcher.
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He has had some issues with the Rangers in the past, so I wonder if make-up issues is affecting the price. My guess is Amaya and Alzolay+ would both have to be in the deal.
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Hard pass.
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With Moustakas to #Brewers that makes #Marlins Barraclough even more realistic option for #Cubs.--Joe Frisaro
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
Lester Strode now has 00. No word on what, if anything, he got from Cole Hamels for giving up #35.
The Cubs have never had anybody with 0 or 00.
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Lester Strode now has 00. No word on what, if anything, he got from Cole Hamels for giving up #35.
The Cubs have never had anybody with 0 or 00.
I will go ahead and say that the Cubs have still never had anybody wear 0 or 00.
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Lots of talk the Cubs are serious about Barraclough from the Marlins. I don't see it given what they're going to be asking, given he has 3+ seasons of control. Never been able to throw strikes, velocity is down this season. Unless he's cheap (and Miami has no incentive to let him go cheap) it's a pass for me.
Yeah, I've never understood the excitement some Cubs fans on other boards seem to have about Barraclough. He basically has Edwards' bad command with lower upside. His surface level numbers have been good enough and he still has enough control left that he'd be expensive, though. If you're willing to pay for Barraclough, you might as well go on and add a little more for Kela, who is a far better buy.
This front office loves high ceiling guys who can't throw strikes, though. He'd fit right in with the non-Chavez relievers.
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Orioles beat writer:
Roch Kubatko @masnRoch
Hearing #braves and #cubs "pushing" for #orioles reliever Brad Brach.
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Good interview (http://cbs.streamguys.com/d/clips/4b5f9d6d-9214-48cb-8455-a73200038129/cfaa7adf-7573-4ae6-b7c4-a78a01215655/8119339c-1dd3-4741-83fb-a92c0123452e/audio/direct/t1532886100/Mac_Engel_on_Cole_Hamels,_issues_with_Yu_Darvish.mp3?t=1532886100&aw_0_1st.episodeid=Mac+Engel+on+Cole+Hamels%2c+issues+with+Yu+Darvish&aw_0_1st.genre=&callsign=WSCRAM&market=Chicago&awCollectionId=20603&show=Best+Of+The+Score&category=Sports+%26+Recreation&awEpisodeId=8119339c-1dd3-4741-83fb-a92c0123452e&episode=Mac+Engel+on+Cole+Hamels%2c+issues+with+Yu+Darvish&listeningSessionID=5b368773df6de015_2590196_wSOnby6u__0000000fCsO) on Hammels/Darvish with Mac Engel
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Multiple sources tell me #Nationals OF Bryce Harper will be available in trade discussions with another loss to the Marlins today. Rizzo and Co. have already reached out to #Dodgers, #Yankees , and #Cubs, among other teams, to begin to gauge his market value.--Rosenthal
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I hope Theo doesn't even return the phone call.
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Dusty where is that from Rosenthal hasn’t tweeted anything for 2 hours?
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I see now.
Fake account.
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Orioles beat writer:
Roch Kubatko @masnRoch
Hearing #braves and #cubs "pushing" for #orioles reliever Brad Brach.
He won't be coming to the Cubs. Orioles beat writers are tweeting that the Braves have traded for Brach.
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$250,000 in IFA money. Orioles really are going to sign Mesa.
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Mick Gillispie
@BroadcasterMick
Follow Follow @BroadcasterMick
More
Not sure why but Trent Giambrone #Cubs just replaced in the 3rd inning vs Chattanooga. #30 http://MLB.com prospect list
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Hey an tweeted Ziegler is getting moved soon..
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Heyman just tweeted that Brad Ziegler will be traded soon and the Cubs are a possibility. That seems like the type of prospect he’d get.
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Heyman just tweeted that Brad Ziegler will be traded soon and the Cubs are a possibility. That seems like the type of prospect he’d get.
Like I said, he's our poor man's Cishek when Cishek' arm falls off. Almost no chance of being on the playoff roster, if there is one.
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Isn’t Ziegler leading the league in games pitched? His arm
might fall off before Cishek’s.
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Isn’t Ziegler leading the league in games pitched? His arm
might fall off before Cishek’s.
That’s a fair point. But Ziegler is already used to trying to survive with mid 80’s velocity, and at this point the scar tissue is probably the only thing still attaching the arm to the shoulder.
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According to the box score, Luis Ayala was also pulled from the game in the second inning. That’s Giambrone and Ayala so far.
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Trent Giambrone #Cubs Leads @smokiesbaseball with 16 Homeruns, 22 Stolen bases and second with 19 Doubles. Pulled in the 3rd inning and didn’t appear to be injury related. Ranked as the 30th best prospect https://t.co/Ujt5ZIVn17 prospect list. Hugs reported in the dugout.--Gillespie
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Craig Mish (who was on top of the Stanton/Ozuna/Yelich trades all offseason) responded when someone asked him about Cubs prospects leaving the game:
Craig Mish @CraigMish
The Marlins do not appear to be part of this.
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Interesting...
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The #30 prospect in a bad system also seems like Diekman's approximate value.
Giambrone also seems like a decent second or third piece in a bigger deal.
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Twitter thinks it’s not Ziegler, fwiw...
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The #30 prospect in a bad system also seems like Diekman's approximate value.
Giambrone also seems like a decent second or third piece in a bigger deal.
If that’s the cost, would love it to be Diekman.
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Well, Jesse Rogers tweeted that if there is a trade, it’s not with the Rangers.
Given that this has been out for more than an hour and nothing has leaked, this could be an out-of-nowhere big deal.
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Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney would be mildly interesting relievers from the Twins.
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A Blake Parker reunion wouldn’t be a bad idea, but he’d be more expensive.
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The Padres pen is impressive, but most of their guys are likely too expensive. Blue Jays maybe a possible team too.
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Conspiracy theorists on Twitter keep pointing out that both Almora and Happ are out of the lineup tonight, which is rare. It's all speculation based on nothing, but I guess it's worth noting.
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I was about to post the same Br.
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That would give them a 2 player bench. I think they’d make some move before that or a trade that large would break by now.
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Trent Giambrone, the #Cubs prospect who was pulled from his game today and reportedly seen hugging teammates in the dugout, is not the PTBNL in the Cole Hamels trade. And the #Cubs have no second deal in the works with the #Rangers. Just in case anyone was wondering ...--Crasnick
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And it's not Blake Parker,FYI.--Jesse Rogers
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Well.
Its gonna be hard for me to be productive until this is settled.
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This is really out of the ordinary for trades over the last few years. I can't believe nothing has leaked yet. It's been over 3 hours since Mick Gillispie tweeted about Giambrone leaving early, and still nothing more than "it's not Texas, Miami, or Blake Parker."
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A bunch of less than stellar sources are mentioning the Cubs/White Sox were talking lefties in the pen.
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Avilan wouldn't be terrible--he's been better than his ERA this year. But I can't imagine every source sat on Giambrone for Avilan for 3 hours after the agreement was close enough to pull Giambrone from a game.
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Giambrone probably needed to go to the bathroom so he was removed from the game.
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Giambrione pulled because of hamstring injury
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I'm thinking Giambrone and Ayala are probably enough to get Harper or DeGrom but probably not both of them.
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Vandy is right.
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Must've been an emotional injury.
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I hope we find out that Giambrone was hugging his teammates after he came out of the game just to mess with Twitter.
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Trying to think of who else might be a target. We're the guys Tampa was saying they wanted for Archer were ML ready like Almora and Happ?
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How bout A-Rod telling the truth about Darvish tonight?
A-Rod commented and said “things are not good in the clubhouse” regarding Darvish not contributing to the team.
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It would be nice if ARod had actually been in the Cubs clubhouse. I took that as ARod projecting his views on the Cubs.
If Tommy LaStella can be accepted by the Cubs players after going AWOL, I don’t think Darvish has a thing to worry about.
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Trying to think of who else might be a target. We're the guys Tampa was saying they wanted for Archer were ML ready like Almora and Happ?
From MLBTradeRumors:
In an interview with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Archer called the trade chatter surrounding him “unsettling.” Topkin again notes that the industry sense is that Tampa Bay is more willing than ever to trade Archer, and he adds that a young catcher and a power-hitting outfield prospect would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/trade-talks-on-chris-archer-intensifying.html
If the Cubs really wanted Archer and that's what the Rays want, I think a package headed by Happ/Caratini is very competitive. But I don't think the Cubs will go after an expensive starter.
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Maddon dismisses ARod's comments as nonsense (from Jesse Rogers):
Joe Maddon responded to comments made on the ESPN broadcast Sunday night regarding Yu Darvish and issues people within the club may have with his injury situation.: "We know that there is an injury there. We support his recovery. Everybody in there does and everybody in the coach's room does, also, throughout the organization. It's unfortunate that it was relayed that way but that is not true."
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How bout A-Rod telling the truth about Darvish tonight?
A-Rod commented and said “things are not good in the clubhouse” regarding Darvish not contributing to the team.
I just think you mean A-Rod being a total douche and talking out of his ass as usual.
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ARod was speaking hypothetically when he said that. He wasn’t talking specifically about Darvish and the Cubs.
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Longshot that cannot be dismissed until after deadline passes: #Cubs getting controllable SP. Could build deal around Happ or another young hitter. Obstacles: Scarcity in market. Many teams want elite prospects over MLB pieces. CHC too thin in young pitching to add to deal.
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Topic: does Bote's emergence make Happ more tradeable?
Discuss.
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Topic: does Bote's emergence make Happ more tradeable?
Discuss.
It wouldn't be surprising if Theo might have led a front office discussion in the last few days in very much the same way, put it that way.
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No. But it proabably makes Bote more tradeable.
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And Russell as well.
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Yes it does but we better get something damn useful for Happ.
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I'd rather trade Almora or Russell.
What could you get for Almora,Russell,and Caratini?
DeGrom?
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Almora,Russell,and Caratini for DeGrom. I certainly wouldn't.
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I told him that on Twitter yesterday.
Theo had become a bit nervous waiting on that advice.
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Why on earth would they trade Almora?
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Theo had become a bit nervous waiting on that advice.
Maybe you're having another memory lapse but I didnt tell Theo.
I told Rosenthal.
Its all good though Brother.
We all know we have to treat you with kid gloves these days.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/draxe.com/15-brain-foods-to-boost-focus-and-memory/amp/
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Why on earth would they trade Almora?
In theory, if you want a TORP you have to trade one of the core. Not that I justify it or think it’s going to happen.
If you’re going to trade anybody, a case can be made for it to be Almora. He still has some of the same limitations he’s always had - no walks. Big splits - .726 OPS vs. righties. He’s actually 5th among Cubs OF in OPS overall. He’s having a very good year but some of the hype around him isn’t fully justified by the numbers. If we had plenty of pitching I’d never consider trading Almora in a million years, but we’re in a position where you have to at least consider trading someone from the core.
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Official response from Darvish team on A-Rod: “If it had come from a credible journalist, we might have expressed some concern.”
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Maybe you're having another memory lapse but I didnt tell Theo.
I told Rosenthal.
Its all good though Brother.
We all know we have to treat you with kid gloves these days.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/draxe.com/15-brain-foods-to-boost-focus-and-memory/amp/
Interesting.... but it was still Theo who was waiting for the advice, and also the advice to trade Almora and Russell.
Rosenthal really didn't care.
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
#Cubs trade for Brad Ziegler is not done, source says, but it is close. #Marlins @MLB @MLBNetwork
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Morosi changes his mind:
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Brad Ziegler trade to #Cubs is not close, according to a separate source. Sides have talked, but current status remains unclear. @MLB @MLBNetwork
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Craig Misch said the Marlins where looking for IFA money and somebody to take all his remaining money, limiting the pool of teams.
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And now, Morosi takes the middle ground...so he has his bases covered on Ziegler to the Cubs:
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Further clarification on Brad Ziegler: #Cubs remain engaged with #Marlins, source says, but other teams are involved in the Ziegler talks. @MLBNetwork @MLB
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Bob Nightengale
Verified account @BNightengale
3h3 hours ago
The Chicago #Cubs definitely will acquire another pitcher today, likely a reliever, and #Marlins closer Brad Ziegler remains the most likely target as the two teams are engaged in talks
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
43m43 minutes ago
Cubs still pursuing starting and relief pitchers going down the wire. Epstein and Hoyer always look for difference making deadline deals . ( 16 Chapman - 17 Quintana -Wilson )
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Is Craig Stammen a possibility?
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Is Craig Stammen a possibility?
A few minutes ago, Padres beat writer Dennis Lin tweeted that the Cubs were scouting Stammen and Yates last night.
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Gordo thinks that Blue Jays are where the Cubs are looking for bullpen help.
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Tepera would be a pretty good target, but the Blue Jays’ rentals are pretty uninspiring.
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You guys realize that with all these rumors and conjecture, if Reb were still here, his head would be exploding.
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It is a shame that our posts don't have to citations anymore.
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I think we know who to trust with not advancing fake crap. I mean, this isn't CNN.
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Rumors are fun, even less credible one can create some discussion. Fun is ok for a message board.
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Okay. Harper to the Cubs for Chatwood. some guy in Alaska with an Ipad just reported it.
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Nats GM just said they wont trade Harper.
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Okay. Harper to the Cubs for Chatwood. some guy in Alaska with an Ipad just reported it.
Too much. Nats need to pay at least 80% of Harpers 10 year extension.
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https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1024349332877860864
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Add #Athletics to list of teams pursuing #Padres’ Stammen, sources say. #Cubs also in mix, per @dennistlin.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
sources: brewers and cubs are among main teams in mix for matt Harvey. (not likely braves, I am told).
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Tweets can’t embed in 2018 smh
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Harvey with the Reds, 6.9 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 4.44 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.51 xFIP.
Unless you think Darvish isn't coming back, I just don't see him replacing anybody in the rotation.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 33m33 minutes ago
#Cubs Maddon says on @670TheScore that Baez at 3B, Zo at 2B tonight vs Pirates
Bote being dealt?
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Don’t you kinda have to hedge your bets on that, though, if the price is right?
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You mean the guy in Alaska is a fraud?
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And if he does come back healthy and strong, what’s so bad about a RH long man throwing upper 90s?
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
@JonHeyman reports Cubs are in on Matt Harvey . Cubs still very serious about adding impactful starting pitching .
Harvey isn't exactly what I'd call "impactful starting pitching."
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I'd rather have Wheeler.
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You mean the guy in Alaska is a fraud?
HEIMO KORTH?
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About 90 minutes left til the trade deadline, right?
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Correct
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https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1024368709501177860
Kintzler
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Cubs close to gettIna Brandon Kintzler per Rosenthal. That’s underwhelming.
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Maybe he's bringing Harper with him!
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On the plus side, he is a strike thrower.
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Looking to keep the top of the pen as rested as possible for the postseason, I imagine.
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Hahahahahahaha
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From Carrie Muskat:
"Nats will get RHP Jhon Romero from @Pelicanbaseball for Kintzler. #Cubs"
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Heh!
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@CarrieMuskat
47s47 seconds ago
Kintzler, who turns 34 on Wednesday, has a 2.03 ERA in 13 games in July. He has a mutal option for 2019. #Cubs
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$10 million club or $5 million player option on Kintzler
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To make room for Kintzler on the 40-man roster, RHP Justin Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day DL.
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
51s52 seconds ago
Cubs new pitcher Brandon Kintzler has allowed just 3 runs in his last thirteen outings .
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But as a Cub he will completely forget how to throw strikes and he'll allow runs like a sieve.
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Ugh, that $5 million option is a little more than I’d want to be paying Kintzler next season. I was wondering why Washington would want to trade him.
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Im glad another deadline has passed in which we held on to our core.
People want reinforcements yet they **** when the farm system is weak and we added 3 usable arms without giving up anything worth a ****.
Hamels can be a tremendous boost to our rotation.
Chavez adds versatility and has already won over a lot of folks.
Kintzler is one year removed from being an all star and even though he doesnt have strikeout stuff he's always been good.
If we had traded Amaya,Happ,Russell,Almora or whoever and even got DeGrom in return somebody here would have bitched.
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No indication of any $$$ from Washington in that deal? Seems odd we'd put ourselves on the hook for $5 million for Kintzler - I'd sooner have done nothing and rolled with what we had.
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Yu Darvish (elbow) threw a successful 35-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon.
Darvish told reporters afterward that it was the first time he felt no discomfort in his elbow from his first warm-up throw to his final pitch off the mound. The right-hander should soon advance to simulated work and then eventually a minor league rehab assignment. It's possible he could rejoin the Cubs' rotation before the end of August. Jul 31 - 6:21 PM
Source: Gordon Wittenmyer on Twitter
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Yu Darvish (elbow) threw a successful 35-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon.
Darvish told reporters afterward that it was the first time he felt no discomfort in his elbow from his first warm-up throw to his final pitch off the mound. The right-hander should soon advance to simulated work and then eventually a minor league rehab assignment. It's possible he could rejoin the Cubs' rotation before the end of August. Jul 31 - 6:21 PM
Source: Gordon Wittenmyer on Twitter
That sounds positive. Are any towel sessions in the offing?
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Justin Wilson too
-
too what?
-
ra-loo-ra-loo-ral
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Well played!
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Wrong topic, but he either stinks or was acquired by IFA in trade.
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Van the Man and the Band. Just got it, Jeff
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Ugh, that $5 million option is a little more than I’d want to be paying Kintzler next season. I was wondering why Washington would want to trade him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/08/01/i-loved-being-here-brandon-kintzler-thought-he-was-safe-now-hes-a-cub/?utm_term=.d2bf22870401
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/08/01/i-loved-being-here-brandon-kintzler-thought-he-was-safe-now-hes-a-cub/?utm_term=.d2bf22870401
Pretty interesting article there. Thanks for posting. The Nats still sound like a train wreck, though.
Hope springs eternal here, but maybe he can lend a hand to Chatwood in the pen...
He played the role of pitching coach, helping Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez with their mechanics during their struggles this season. His presence was felt.
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Theo said Passan called him this AM unprompted to say Kintzler wasn't the source.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 27m27 minutes ago
Rosario optioned to Iowa, Kintzler en route, will wear No. 20
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Any interest in Greg Holland?
-
If he wants to go to Iowa for a month with no guarantee he'll get a roster spot once rosters expand, sure. It would be fun to stick it to the Cardinals if he gets it together in AAA.
If he wants to be on an MLB roster as soon as he signs, then let him go somewhere else.
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Didn't he sign with someone already?
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If Darvish comes back this season, pitches well, and the Cubs make the playoffs, I would like to see them carry 13 pitchers in the postseason.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that thirteenth position player will be far less impactful than having that extra pitcher. The playoffs are just so brutal on a pitching staff.
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If Darvish comes back this season, pitches well, and the Cubs make the playoffs, I would like to see them carry 13 pitchers in the postseason.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that thirteenth position player will be far less impactful than having that extra pitcher. The playoffs are just so brutal on a pitching staff.
Agree.
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The right 13 pitchers, I would agree. If one of the 13 is named Chatwood, I disagree.
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The right 13 pitchers, I would agree. If one of the 13 is named Chatwood, I disagree.
Chatwood is currently below #13 on merit.
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With a 4 man rotation and a lot of off days I think 13 would be overkill.
NLDS is usually 2 games then a travel day.
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With a 4 man rotation and a lot of off days I think 13 would be overkill.
NLDS is usually 2 games then a travel day.
Last year in the NLCS, both teams used 11 pitchers. In 2016, the Cubs used 11 and the Dodgers 12. In 2015 the Cubs used 11 and the Mets used 9.
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12 pitchers is already overkill with a decent 4-man rotation in a postseason series. Assuming Darvish did come back and pitch well and so did Morrow the Cubs would certainly have the depth to carry 13 pitchers (and no, Chatwood not among them) if they wanted. But that doesn't mean they should.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 35m35 minutes ago
Maddon indicated that Bryant was still feeling some discomfort in range of motion exercises
We all want to see David Bote stay on the roster but not if it means KB doesn't return until September 1.
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12 pitchers is already overkill with a decent 4-man rotation in a postseason series. Assuming Darvish did come back and pitch well and so did Morrow the Cubs would certainly have the depth to carry 13 pitchers (and no, Chatwood not among them) if they wanted. But that doesn't mean they should.
The "decent 4-man rotation" is the issue. As it the assumption that Darvish will come back and pitch well.
To me, the reality is that the Cubs do NOT have a decent 4-man rotation. Hamels, after 9 days of rest following 10 days for his previous start, still took ~100 pitches to get through 5. Lester and Hendricks nibble a lot and normally are at or over 100 pitches within 5 innings. Even before his injury, it was exceptional for Darvish to finish 5 innings; and several of the games where Maddon did try to push him beyond four innings, it wasn't so much to win the game as for long-term-season reasons, to protect the pen, or to build Darvish up, or to get him a W, or to build his confidence, or something. Coming back after the injury, I don't think you want to be expecting Darvish to be giving you 5-inning starts.
Sure, if things go right, some of the starters might be sharp and well-rested and give a five or even a six-inning start in the playoffs. But for the most part, I think in the playoffs you want to be ready and willing to be pulling starters pretty early, if they aren't unusually sharp. Hope for 5 innings, but be willing to settle for 4 or 3 or even less. No point in letting Hendricks or Lester or Q or Darvish pitch tired or pitch "off" in the playoffs.
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Yes, but my point was that it was overkill with a decent 4-man rotation. Without one, it's appropriate.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
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We all want to see David Bote stay on the roster but not if it means KB doesn't return until September 1.
Well, no, but I'd rather have Bote with a chance of KB getting healthy than .750 OPS KB-gutting-it-out. I'm less worried about making the playoffs than I am doing well in the playoffs, so the health of a lot of these guys is more important than having them back Right Now.
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Well, no, but I'd rather have Bote with a chance of KB getting healthy than .750 OPS KB-gutting-it-out. I'm less worried about making the playoffs than I am doing well in the playoffs, so the health of a lot of these guys is more important than having them back Right Now.
Kris Bryant first went on the DL on June 23. You can't do well in the playoffs if you don't get there.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
Morrow. Kintzler. Ffs
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
I'd rather have the extra pitching depth so you can pull a starter even earlier if the game warrants. And we've seen enough tough games to know that a lot of innings 6-9 will require multiple relievers per inning. And not every guy will be able to pitch every day.
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Morrow. Kintzler. Ffs
Cishek (Chisek), too.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
I'd rather have the extra pitching depth so you can pull a starter even earlier if the game warrants. And we've seen enough tough games to know that a lot of innings 6-9 will require multiple relievers per inning. And not every guy will be able to pitch every day.
Exactly what Jeff notes.
*Rare for our starters to give 5 effective innings. Maddon often tries to push them through 5 during the season to save the pen, but that's not the priority in playoffs.
*Mid-inning switches are huge for Maddon in any semi-close priority games. If the starter gives 4 innings (or less) and the relievers need to cover 5 (or more), with only 8 relievers that's well under two-per-inning.
*Extra innings can also happen.
*Pressure and wild relievers can change the plan. Going into last playoffs, Edwards was assumed to be a key player. But he went crazy, and suddenly you don't want to rely on him. Hopefully this year everything will go great, and all the relievers will be rested and ready and sharp. But Wilson, Edwards, Strop, Morrow, Montgomery, Chatwood, Darvish, we've got a lot of guys whose control is always iffy-at-best; playoff pressure combined with long layoffs might make any or several of them go wild. OK, so maybe you don't include a Chatwood on the playoff roster; but the staff is so wild that you're for sure going to keep some wild guys on, and as with Edwards and Montgomery and Rondon last playoffs, you might not know going into a series which guy is going to lose it.
We'll see. Last couple of years, they've dumped a pitcher in order to carry a pinch-runner type. Don't see that being a value this year.
Cutting a pitcher spot to carry both Bryant and Bote might have considerable merit, though. If the Cubs get in, and if Bryant and the present twelve guys are all healthy.
Probably a fair chance that they'll be able to carry 13 pitchers as normal simply because they don't have 13 players healthy.
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Shocking I misspelled names. Sorry, not sorry.
FWIW my phone autocorrected Kintzler because I looked it up.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 29m29 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Brian Duensing on the 10-day DL with left shoulder inflammation and recalled LHP Randy Rosario from @IowaCubs.
Left shoulder inflammation must be contagious.
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Duensing to the DL doesn't surprise me. Yes, a DFA was in order, but Theocracy places value on loyalty and Duensing turned down higher offers to come back to the Cubs. I don't think that loyalty will carry into 2019.
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Another fine column from Sharma.
https://theathletic.com/457309/2018/08/03/three-issues-the-cubs-must-correct-to-make-a-deep-october-run/
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Finally, some optimism surrounding Yu Darvish's rehab
By Tony Andracki (NBC Chicago) August 04, 2018 1:03 PM
LATEST CUBS TALK
Finally, some optimism surrounding Yu Darvish's rehab
Yu Darvish hasn't spoken to Alex Rodriguez, but he has a plan ready if the former player and current ESPN broadcaster were to reach out:
"If he sends me a text message or something, I'll keep it, maybe take a screenshot, print it out, frame it," Darvish said through a translator.
That officially ended his media session before Saturday's game, but Darvish wasn't done yet:
"I'm not joking," he said in English as he walked away.
It's been a little while since we've seen that sense of humor and edge from Darvish.
He has plenty of bulletin board material for his Comeback Tour and for the first time in what feels like forever, there is actually optimism surrounding Darvish's rehab.
He threw around 55 pitches Saturday morning in the Cubs bullpen underneath the left-field bleachers. That includes warm-up pitches and the Cubs also simulated an inning break by having him throw some pitches, sit down for about five minutes and then get back up and finish off the session.
Darvish worked in every pitch in his arsenal and said he felt good after. Instead of talking about any anxiety or discomfort after a throwing session like previous instances, he instead was looking toward the future, discussing facing hitters as the next step.
"Yeah, certainly [this is the best I've felt]," Darvish said through a translator. "I think all my pitches, velocity-wise were up there at the highest and then I was able to follow through with my arm motion.
"Definitely now that I'm pitching, very optimistic about the process now."
The Cubs don't have a set plan, but if Darvish reports all is well physically Sunday, the next step would be a simulated game against his Cubs teammates.
Darvish felt like he turned a corner physically about 10 days ago and believes it could possibly be because he and Cubs trainers put more emphasis on treating his back and triggering a "more positive flow."
The Cubs always treat every area of a player's body while they're rehabbing, which makes sense. Just because a guy is on the disabled list for an elbow or triceps injury doesn't mean he or the Cubs trainers can neglect other parts of his body as he tries to get back into game shape.
"Everything up until this point, there was a little bit of pain and discomfort involved," Darvish said. "So I was just trying to see alternatives and it ended up being in the back.
"I can't say for certain [the back treatment helped the arm], but timing-wise, that's when I started the treatment and discomfort and everything went away. So it could be a factor."
Whether the back was the key in the recovery or not, the 31-year-old pitcher has said the whole process recently has been better than it was before.
He's been on quite the roller coaster the last three months.
After a start at Wrigley Field on May 2, Darvish was placed on the disabled list with the flu. He returned May 15 in Atlanta and had to leave that game due to leg cramps.
He made one more start — May 20 in Cincinnati — before again hitting the disabled list, this time with triceps tightness.
That triceps issue was addressed and Darvish worked up to a rehab start in Class-A South Bend on June 25.
But he reported some discomfort after that 57-pitch outing and then had to have his ensuing bullpen halted in Los Angeles later that week.
Darvish flew to Texas to get a second opinion on his arm, where it was discovered he had an elbow impingement. He received a cortisone shot in that elbow on June 29 and now has been working his way back from that ordeal over the last five weeks.
The Cubs have taken things slow with the veteran right-hander, especially given his history (he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015).
Theo Epstein said before the trade deadline the Cubs knew they realistically couldn't rely on Darvish returning and making an impact for this team, so they went out and acquired one of Darvish's former teammates — Cole Hamels — to help bolster the rotation.
Even in a best case scenario, Darvish is still weeks away from being able to throw on a Cubs uniform and pitch in front of the Wrigley Field fans again.
But this is absolutely a step in the right direction and if he does return, it could be perfect timing for the team a few weeks before the postseason.
A Darvish return could also mean the Cubs flip Mike Montgomery back from the rotation into the bullpen as they keep an eye on the southpaw's workload (he's on pace for a career-high in innings pitched).
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Great to have Darvish in progress.
I'd like to hope that Morrow will make some progress at some point as well.
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I'm less optimistic that Bryant will be able to come back at anything close to the real thing. Maddon said several times, even back a month ago, that he'd need to "play through it" this year. So, if three months before the playoffs there wasn't a chance that rest+rehab could completely fix it in three months, I admit I'm a little hesitant to assume that 4 months of off-season rest+rehab will be able to completely fix it.
If months of rehab can't really fix it, is this a deal that actually needs surgery? If so, how likely is that a post-World Series surgery would have him 100% by spring?
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Before opening day, one of the big arguments here was who was the Cubs' ace. Hendricks, Darvish, Lester and Quintana all had their supporters.
At this point, based on performance, the most reasonable argument would be that the Cubs have no ace in their rotation.
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Maybe the trainers can work on Bryant's back - and the shoulder will come around
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Today's road trip dress-up was dress like Pedro Strop day. Yu Darvish appears to have won:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dj3_GYcUYAAnrHR.jpg:small)
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Now that we are a week into August the September call-ups are just around the corner. Who is a lock to be called up? I would think Bass, Maples, Underwood, Norwood, Zastryzny. Farrell and Mazzoni could all get the call. Considering Mekkes isn't on the 40 man I would imagine he would be left off. I could see Zagunis as well. Maybe Jen-Ho Tseng too? Usually teams like to call up a third catcher for September but in order to do so they would have to roster someone, most likely Gimenez. I know the next 3 weeks will have a lot to do with it, but I have to imagine those decisions are being made now in the Cubs front office while they scour the waiver wire to see if there is something more they can do.
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Smyly.
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Yeah, it's possible that both Smyly, Darvish, and maybe even MOrrow might all three be ready for a September activation. Not sure, but maybe Bryant too? Maybe a 75% Bryant would still be worth having if it didn't mean sending Bote out?
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I wonder how soon Smyly might actually pitch in a rehab game? They may prefer having him just do BP type throwing, because maybe the competitiveness of some of these guys just takes over in a real game, even if it's in Mesa, and they want to avoid that for now?
A rehab assignment, I think, is limited to 30 days, right? So they probably wouldn't have wanted to initiate that in July, even if he was maybe ready physically, because if the rehab calendar runs out, and it turns out he is NOT ready yet (whether physically unready or maybe he's just fine physically but he's got Chatwood-level control.....), then you're stuck.
But if they started a 30-day rehab now, even if he wasn't ready there would still be plenty of 40-man space once the rehab expired, so the only risk is to bump guy #40 off.
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I thought he did a simulated game and that was the last step before a minor league rehab assignment.
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You may be right. I thought I'd heard 30-pitches. Which in Darvish's case, has not been the precursor to rehab.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cubs-drew-smyly-tosses-simulated-game/amp/
This says near future.
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Bleacher Nation
@BleacherNation
1h1 hour ago
More
Javy Baez's now-.594 SLG is the best in the NL.
He also rates as the 3rd most valuable baserunner in the NL behind only Billy Hamilton & Trea Turner.
The best slugger in the league is also one of the best baserunners.
Oh, he also plays stellar D at multiple positions.
#MVP
"But his OBP is not elite, dude, so he can't be an MVP!"
If that's the biggest flaw you can find, I got a truth bomb for you:
Javy's OBP is still 15 POINTS HIGHER THAN LEAGUE AVERAGE.
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Javy being third in BsR is another feather in his cap, no doubt. But that stat also has Russell 6th in the NL, which makes me seriously doubt it’s veracity.
The funny thing is, Javy is already near the top of the NL in WAR even though defensive metrics this season undervalue his defense to a hilarious extreme. He won’t win the MVP but when you consider all aspects of the game, he should be the favorite.
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Guy behind home plate the other day had a T-shirt that said "Chicago JAVYS"
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Cubs have had SO many problems this season! For much of the season, Javy has carried the Team on his back!
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Guy behind home plate the other day had a T-shirt that said "Chicago JAVYS"
Only $25.00
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0665/2971/products/ChicagoJavys-HeatherBlue_580x.progressive.png.jpg?v=1507043856)
https://store.barstoolsports.com/products/chicago-javys?variant=53836818133
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Also available
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0665/2971/products/ElMago-HeatherBlue_580x.progressive.png.jpg?v=1523559216)
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The team is playing well since Bryant went down. What's the record witout him?
Bryant, Darvish, and Smyly are going to be huge "acquisitions" down the stretch.
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Hard to count on much of anything from Smyly since he's just coming off TJ and hasn't pitched since 2016.
Sure would be great IF he can contribute!!
Smyly may be part of the front office's model for finding starting pitching...guys coming off major injuries other teams couldn't afford to pay and wait on. We just don't have inventory of high-level stuff starters in the minors!
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Smyly is quietly a pretty key figure, I think. With Duensing and Rosario being all but out of the picture and Wilson still too inconsistent for Maddon's trust, who's your lefty in clutch situations in the postseason? Montgomery will be back in the pen most likely, but he's more of a long man by trade. Maybe Smyly can be an effective option.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/07/cole-hamels-second-cubs-start-went-well-for-entirely-different-reasons/
Interesting take on Hamels that, I think, really shows the blessing and curse of having a huge pitch arsenal. Guys like Hamels and Darvish get in trouble by leaning on the wrong pitch or pitches sometimes (there’s evidence this was a big factor in Hamels’ decline this season). But they also have a ton of weapons they can pivot to when their top guns aren’t firing, or on the third time through the order.
Hamels’ velocity was “down” to 93.4 last night - which is still higher than his career average. I think the evidence is there’s really been no decline in his stuff at all, just his command. He’s a mercurial sort of pitcher but if we can get him right, there’s a ton of upside there.
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If the Cubs make the playoffs and all five of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, and Hamels are healthy and pitching well, who are your four postseason starters? And what do you do with the fifth guy? Leave him off the roster or carry him?
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Impossible to answer that until we know how each guy is pitching at the time. But based on how many pen arms we theoretically have and that both Monty and Chavez are likely to be on the roster, tough to see an argument to carry that 5th SP.
My gut is that it would be Hendricks left off, unless he really picks it up or one of the other four really stinks in October (or is hurt).
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Assuming the Cubs make the playoffs (which is far from certain at this point), I think only Lester is guaranteed a spot in the postseason rotation at this point, and he's done his best for the last month or so to give that guarantee back. The next two months will determine who is starting.
It's hard for me to imagine any of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, or Hamels getting left off the roster completely if they're all reasonably effective and healthy. Someone like Kintzler, Wilson, or Smyly will be left off the roster so one of them can pitch out of the bullpen.
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Nice to see Padres put up 11 and beat the Brewers, while we shut out the Royals!! Now that's a great evening of baseball!
Let's keep it going tomorrow (as the Brewers may run the table on SD and KC the rest of this week)!!
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Assuming the Cubs make the playoffs (which is far from certain at this point), I think only Lester is guaranteed a spot in the postseason rotation at this point, and he's done his best for the last month or so to give that guarantee back. The next two months will determine who is starting.
It's hard for me to imagine any of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, or Hamels getting left off the roster completely if they're all reasonably effective and healthy. Someone like Kintzler, Wilson, or Smyly will be left off the roster so one of them can pitch out of the bullpen.
Let’s assume everyone is healthy. Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek and Montgomery are locks. Either Wilson or Smyly is a lock, even if you don’t take both. As possibles you have whichever lefty of those two loses out, Chavez, Kintzler and Bass. With an 8 man bullpen, where does that leave room for the 5th starter? Keeping that extra starter almost always ends one of two ways - they never pitch, or they’re a disaster (like Lackey last year). You’re basically saying you’re going to take your worst SP, who’s most likely never or rarely pitched out of the pen, and keep him instead of a reliever. Why?
I know the board is very anti-Wilson, but while he’s obviously inconsistent and wild, he’s also the only lefty we have who’s a short reliever by trade and is tough on lefties. He also has (successful) closing experience and he misses bats when he can find the plate. I’d be inclined to say he’s close to a lock if he has a decent final two months.
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Unless he blows up, Chavez is also a lock. He might be their best reliever right now. They have to carry a strike thrower or two--carrying mostly ball throwers didn't help them last year in the postseason.
If they're all performing reasonably well, all the starters make the roster because they're veteran starters who are getting decent results. Not saying I necessarily think that's the best move, but that is what would happen.
As bad as this rotation has been, two months is a really long time. Predicting how they'd go into the postseason (if they make it--that's still far from guaranteed) is just a wild guess at this point.
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Fangraphs has the Cubs playoff odds at 97.1%, winning the division at 83.7%. Both are best in the National League. It would take an epic collapse for the Cubs to not make the playoffs.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 10m10 minutes ago
Tommy La Stella fouled off a pitch from Darvish off his leg and he's down and in pain.
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 5m5 minutes ago
La Stella standing up and able to put weight on his right leg but he's done as far as the sim game goes. He's walking off. #Cubs
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkGdP36UwAAMICu.jpg)
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Great. Now Darvish is hurting other players too. That guy has it out for us.
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Fortunately the sim game went better for Darvish than it did for La Stella.
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David Bote through first 64 AB’s: .344 BA, 22 H, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 10 BB, 17 K’s.
Kyle Schwarber through first 65 AB’s: .323 BA, 21 H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 9 BB, 20 K’s.
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Career .229 hitter Kyle Schwarber?
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Article on Baez
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2790171-move-over-kris-bryant-and-anthony-rizzo-the-cubs-are-javy-baezs-team-now?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
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Michael Cerami
Verified account
@Michael_Cerami
2h2 hours ago
More
In 2018, the #Cubs *entire* pitching staff has 6.6 WAR. In 2015, Jake Arrieta had 7.3 WAR.
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It's crazy that the Cubs' starting pitching is absolute garbage and they have a 2 game lead in the division and a 2 game lead for best record in the NL.
Wild stuff.
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Rosario is getting sent down to Iowa.
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Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112 3s3 seconds ago
#Cubs sign pitcher Jorge De La Rosa. He is available out of pen today. Rosario optioned. Darvish on 60-day DL as a procedural move.
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De La Rosa appears to be a mediocre LOOGY.
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@Michael_Cerami
2h2 hours ago
More
In 2018, the #Cubs *entire* pitching staff has 6.6 WAR. In 2015, Jake Arrieta had 7.3 WAR.
Much more balanced team this year.
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It's crazy that the Cubs' starting pitching is absolute garbage and they have a 2 game lead in the division and a 2 game lead for best record in the NL.
Wild stuff.
It's also a testament to Joe Maddon.
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At Wrigley today for the first Cub game I've seen there since they got really good in 2015. And it was a VERY different experience!
Like most of you, all my life I've watched the Cubs find new ways to LOSE games they should win. Not anymore! It's such a different experience at Wrigley (or on tv) these days! Now, the Cubs are a VERY damned hard team to beat when the game is on the line!
Other teams sort of have to padlock all exits or the Cubs will find a way to wrestle out of the jaws of defeat and come back...I almost can't believe it's the Cubs we are watching!
All those years of hackaway offenses, we now have patient hitters who grind at bats, none more so than Captain Rizzo, who is as good a team leader as there is in baseball...and when have the Cubs ever had a strong field/clubhouse leader like Rizz?
All those years of lousy defense, we now have guys who can really play D at every position...even guys who are up from the minors (Bote) can play D and even guys not known for D make great plays rather often (Schwarber). And none of us could ever imagine the kind of back-pick Contreras-Rizzo executed to perfection to nail young Soto in what turned out to probably be the game's biggest play.
Despite an offense that falls asleep at times and starting pitching WAY below what we've become accustomed to, the Cubs are still on top because, well, they just won't be denied. They are a hard-nosed, tough-minded bunch who are really hard to beat!
Who knows about the future, but so far again this year - with all the problems and injuries - the Cubs play as well as a Team as any group in MLB and they win games like today that they always used to lose! Man, these are great times to be a Cub fan!
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Amen, Ben.
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David Adler
Verified account
@_dadler
8h8 hours ago
More
Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels has gotten the Nats to whiff on 5 of their 7 swings vs. his changeup.
That brings his changeup whiff rate to 47.7% on the season (235 swings, 112 misses) -- now the highest rate among starters, leapfrogging Kenta Maeda.
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Watching Scherzer and Hamels mixing their pitches last night made me think how much harder it must be for hitters. I specifically remembered a Quintana game I saw at Wrigley where he must have used his fastball something like 90% of the time (maybe more). Granted, a good fastball that moves is not easy to hit solidly, still it seems like that's so much better for a hitter than trying to get good contact against pitchers like Scherzer and Hamels who mix up their pitches so much.
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That was a great game by Hamels. The crazy thing is that Scherzer is like that good almost every single game!
Man, that guy is unbelievable. Amazing. One of the all-time greats. This will be 3rd straight Cy, 4th in six year, top-5 Cy voting 6 years straight.
And no indication that decline is occurring or impending. Still plenty fast, plenty strong, plenty durable. Who knows with a pitcher, but no reason to assume he won't be the best pitcher in the league again next year (by a mile).
Amazing.
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If this team is ever going to get hot and run off a long 8-10 game win streak, this would be a good week to do it. Two against the Brewers, then four against the Pirates while the Brewers and Cardinals are playing each other...a 5-1 or 6-0 week would likely mean we'd be down to a 2 team division race with the second place team 6+ games back.
Really, the next two and a half weeks are pretty critical. After this week, the Cubs have an 8 game stretch against bad teams (Tigers, Reds, and Mets) to finish out the month. But September is rough--the Cubs only have two off days and six games against sub .500 teams. Winning the division and setting up for the postseason is much easier if the division lead is twice as big at the end of this stretch.
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Cerami with a relatively upbeat assessment of Smyly's status:
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/14/drew-smyly-is-still-making-good-progress-but-september-is-the-goal-for-a-return-not-august/
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https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/14/yu-darvish-throws-another-successful-simulated-game-rehab-start-could-be-coming/
Darvish threw 3-inning session. Theo says that *If* he feels OK afterwards, he *might* be ready for a rehab outing next. Sounded pretty upbeat.
Allowed at least a HR and a double.
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Yu Darvish’s simulated game went according to plan Tuesday morning and president Theo Epstein confirmed a rehab start will be the next step.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-yu-darvish-theo-epstein-20180814-story.html
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Sharma with a nice piece on Bote.
https://theathletic.com/471975/2018/08/14/sharma-reliving-the-david-bote-game-one-more-time/?source=dailyemail
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17 year-old OF Alexander Ovalles is the PTBNL in the Hamels deal. Having a decent season in the Dominican, out with surgery to remove the hamate bone.
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He was a $300K international signing last year. Interesting the Rangers had a guy like that on their radar.
Either that or they just thought he was worth more of a chance than a 92 mph Double-A reliever.
Anyway that seems like a fair guy to send over as the second guy in the trade.
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I think that's not a bad score for Hamels. He had very little value to them.
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Yeah the Rangers probably did as well as they could. It’s still doubtful we’ll regret trading the prospects we did though.
If Ovalles makes it big, that’ll be more of a testament to Rangers scouting and development than a particularly bad move on our part.
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Maybe it's time for another hitter's meeting. The last one seemed to do them some good.
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Maybe it's time to try Quintana out of the pen when Yu gets back. Montgomery is certainly better right now and has been for a while. That's true of Lester too of course, but he's not going anywhere.
If Darvish has a good rehab start this weekend, I'm not sure I see the argument for waiting to bring him back all that persuasive. Sure, in a perfect world two rehab starts and recall him when the rosters expand. But apart from Hamels and Monty the rotation is pretty much a dumpster fire and nothing is remotely locked down as far as the playoffs are concerned.
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The way our SP has pitched this season and with the sluggish way our offense has performed (or underperformed) since the break, it's almost amazing we're 2 games up on Brewers and 4 up on the Cards!
If our SP and offense don't substantially improve - and quickly - we will soon be looking up in the NLC.
We've had a great run and let's hope it continues; however, if it doesn't, life will go on!
And we will still have a World Championship! (which is a vast departure from past years when the Cubs couldn't get it done down the stretch)
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The way our SP has pitched this season and with the sluggish way our offense has performed (or underperformed) since the break, it's almost amazing we're 2 games up on Brewers and 4 up on the Cards!
The Cubs are averaging four runs in those 25 games after averaging 5.1 before the break. In fact, they’ve been outscored 128-100 since the break and have been routed in five of those games.
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IMO, the real troubling sign is that they are losing the blowouts. The one run game luck has shifted which has masked the fact that they are losing the big ones more than they are winning. Good teams win by blowout and that’s what they were doing earlier in the season. One run game results are too random to mean much but blowouts tell a real story and it’s not good now.
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I thought all season that the starting pitching would come around. It's getting late, but I still feel that way. A healthy Yu will be key. One would think that a rotation of Yu, Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, and Quintana (backed up by Montgomery) would be solid for the stretch run. Theo has assembled the requisite personnel, and it's up to the starters to perform when it counts. I think they will.
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It's mid-August. Things can change in a week, of course, as the Brewers will recall from their dreadful week-before-All-Stars.
But **IF** the Cubs can win today, they'll come out with a 3-game lead. That's not insignificant.
Think Brewers and Cardinals have some significant vulnerabilities. Cards have the bullpen and the defense. And both Cardinals and Brewers have some hitting issues, with weak back-halves-of-lineups. *IF* one or two of their good hitters slumps, that can then leave them fairly challenged offensively. Obviously both have >30 more HR's than the Cubs, (>25% more), so maybe that helps them. But either one of those teams might have a stretch where scoring is really hard, just like the Cubs have been experiencing. So it's hard for the Cubs, but think they too may each have a couple of weeks that don't go well and where they struggle to gain or retain ground.
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I don't think it's an especially strong bet that Lester, Hendricks or Quintana will perform down the stretch - they're all pretty bad right now and in truth, Lester wasn't that good even when he was showing good numbers. That's why a healthy Yu and Hamels continuing to excel are key - maybe 1 of those 3 guys finds it and starts pitching like a good MORP, but probably not two.
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Agree, although Hendricks didn't pitch that poorly today.
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Hendricks has actually been fine this year after he gets past the first inning. Coming into today, he'd given up 22 of his 65 earned runs in the first inning (8.25 ERA) and the league had a .971 OPS against him. In the rest of the game, he has a 3.37 ERA. Overall, the league has a .728 OPS against him (remove the first, and he's probably right around .700).
They just need to figure out what's going on in the first inning--is something in his pre-game routine off this year? Is it something in his head? Regardless, I think there's a pretty good chance he'll figure it out. I don't have anywhere close to the same optimism for Quintana or Lester until they get a chance to work on it in meaningless Spring Training games next year.
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I think Lester's problem is that he's just not that good anymore. As for Quintana, there's some talk that he's dramatically changed his pitch mix from his South Side days - dropping the cutter, for example.
Hendricks is doing what he is with pure guile, really - his velocity is still off quite a ways from when he was really good, and he didn't have it to spare. He may be the best best to pitch decently the rest of the way, but I don't think he's ever going to be a #1 or 2 type starter again.
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SunTimes article on Jon Lester and what he plans to change
https://chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1297563
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Does it say he's going back in time three years?
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According to this board no matter how good Lester does he still sucks and no matter how much Hendricks sucks he's still good.
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Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
8h8 hours ago
More
Maddon revealed what HE said to home plate ump Phil Cuzzi yesterday:
"Do you realize *Ben Zobrist* is arguing with you right now? That's gotta be a bad feeling."
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I’m hopeful Quintana will figure it out next spring. Lester is probably a #4/#5 going forward, but he earned his contract already.
I agree that 2015-16 Hendricks isn’t coming back. But he’s still been about a #2 if you remove the first inning this year, so it seems like there has to be an adjustment he could make to really improve his overall results. Maybe he did something different today—that was easily the best first inning I can remember for him this year.
If Hendricks finishes strong, the Cubs would be smart to explore trades in the offseason. His reputation probably exceeds his performance going forward, and there’s just not much margin for error there.
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I've never been a fan of "if you remove the first inning" type theoreticals. The numbers are what they are. All the innings count.
Hendricks has a 4.26 FIP and 3.89 xFIP, and those numbers aren't far out of line with last year. He has outperfrormed his FIP stats for his career, so maybe you assume he's good enough at the "intangibles" side of pitching to do that consistently, but not enough to be a #2 type starter. He and Lester and both probably #4s at this point, maybe optimistically one of them can pitch like a #3 the rest of the way. Maybe Lester can get an adrenaline rush and ride his red-ass nature to a good postseason, if his tank has anything left in it. As for Quintana, he's a complete wildcard. Again, Darvish coming back and pitching like a TORP is really the key to any long postseason run. It may not be likely, but if he's actually healthy he'll have a month to tune up before the playoffs, and go in with the freshest arm in the rotation. I'd certainly bet on him doing it over Lester, Hendricks or Quintana.
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The numbers are what they are, sure. He’s been a weak #3/good #4 this year overall. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t change that with an adjustment. The performance in the first inning is so out of line with everything else that the logical conclusion is he’s just not ready to pitch when he comes into the game...and that’s something that could hypothetically be changed with a different pre-game routine.
I think we’re on the same page on Hendricks’ value going forward—I still think Doug Fister’s career is a strong comp, and he cratered at about Hendricks’ age. But I still think it’s easy to see how he could be a strong part of the rotation the rest of the year. I don’t think there’s much hope for 2018 versions of Lester and Quintana.
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Thats why Monty starting in the postseason should be very much on the table.
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Agreed. If the postseason started tomorrow, the top three should be Hamels/Montgomery/Hendricks. And game 4 would probably be best as a bullpen day. Darvish coming back strong would be huge.
I really hope Smyly comes off the DL strong enough for Joe to count on him in the postseason. That would take away some of the temptation to automatically put Montgomery in the bullpen in October.
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You know there's absolutely no way Lester isn't starting in the postseason (probably game 1), no matter what he does the last six weeks.
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Realistically, you're right. Hamels could take the game 1 start if he continues to mimic 2017 Verlander. Maybe Hendricks could take it too if he really gets on a roll down the stretch. Barring injury, though, it's a lock that Lester starts one of the first three games.
That's assuming they make the postseason, of course. With their September schedule, that's far from guaranteed if they fail to build a bigger lead the rest of August.
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Cerami is much more positive re Hendricks that most of the posters here:
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/16/kyle-hendricks-seems-to-have-figured-it-out/
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Thanks for the link, playtwo. Some interesting and encouraging data there.
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I'm not sure I fully tracked the start of that article. I think it was talking about Quintana's game against Kansas City, not two starts ago in which he got killed very early.
But yeah, I though that was really good on Hendricks. Cerami used Hendricks last 8 starts, 2.7 FIP, terrific K/BB, and all the soft-contact and groundball stuff and all that has been really good. I thought he pitched REALLY well yesterday, it seemed like he was totally in command and there was no hard contact or anything for 3.2.... then suddenly a hit and a couple of hard-hit balls were clustered and they got two runs. Total command in 5th and 6th too. Previous game vs Washington, he also seemed really good.
Think he struggled a lot earlier on. But he's been pitching very well lately.
Think it's a very different landscape with Q. His stuff to me just looks so vulnerable, and his curveball command not consistent enough. (Both Braun HR's on Tues were terrible hanging curveballs.) Think it's kind of the life of a struggling curveball guy. Hanging curves are even more HR-vulnerable than misplaced fastballs. And curves are hard to control consistently, so on days when his curve isn't sharp, he doesn't have enough ammo to work with.
But if Hendricks can lock in the way he's been throwing lately, with some offense and relief I think they could win a lot of his starts.
I get the Hendricks bit with the skeptics, though. He can be having a really sharp game like yesterday, but of course the margin is thin, so if he loses his edge even for a moment maybe what looked like a "cruise" game is suddenly a couple runs and it's all different.
But if playoffs were now, no question he'd be near the front of the rotation.
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Hamels is for me the unquestioned number 1 if the playoffs started today.
As for Quintana, as tough as it is to do so mid-season, I wish he’d bring back his cutter.
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Darvish to start somewhere Sunday, location TBA.
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Darvish to start somewhere Sunday, location TBA.
It looks like South Bend again. The Great Lakes team has to be looking forward to a nice meal.
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Good news.
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Gleyber Torres in 82 games: 1.3 fWAR
David Bote in 34 games: 1.2 fWAR
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Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
OPS of Cubs players since All-Star Break:
Zobrist - 1.106
Bote - 1.034
Rizzo - 1.002
Baez - .930
La Stella - .715
Heyward - .698
Bryant - .684
Contreras - .677
Schwarber - .624
Happ - .606
Almora - .562
Russell - .547
Caratini - .451
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#1 on that list is a part time player by necessity, but #2 is a part time player by choice. Ride the hot streak, Joe.
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Joe is going to have some fascinating lineup and rotation decisions come playoff time. Bullpen too.
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This link has many quotes from those who were watching David Bote's epic grand slam.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24395970/mlb-cubs-give-oral-history-david-bote-historic-walk-grand-slam
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Montgomery to the DL.
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Yet another case of left shoulder inflammation. Randy Rosario returns.
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Tyler Chatwood starts Saturday.
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Montgomery to the DL.
Yikes. Come back soon, Yu!
I kinda feel like that makes tonight's game more important. If we get shut out tonight, and then have Chatwood going tomorrow, don't want to be positioned to lose a couple straight.
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Tyler Chatwood starts Saturday.
Well, he did get an out last time he was on the mound.
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Per Fangraphs, Cubs' chances to make the playoffs at 98%; to win the NL Central, 88.1%.
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Hopefully Cole Hamels will be this year‘s version of Justin Verlander. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Perhaps it wasn’t!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hamels with a .072 ERA since coming to us.
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Is it a forgone conclusion we will pick-up Cole Hamels option for next season at $20 million ? Isn't $ 16 million a year the going rate these days for a semi-productive MLB starting pitcher ?
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I thought there was no way they would pick up his option for 2019. Looks like I was wrong, and I'm delighted.
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I always thought that option was, well, an option. But it’s too early to say for sure. Obviously if Hamels keeps pitching this way it’s a no-brainer, but he’ll come back to Earth some.
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No doubt he will regress some. But it will be a disappointment (and a surprise) if he regresses to the point that they won't exercise his option for next season. It seems clear to me that he needs the bright lights of meaningful competition to perform at his best.
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No doubt he will regress some. But it will be a disappointment (and a surprise) if he regresses to the point that they won't exercise his option for next season. It seems clear to me that he needs the bright lights of meaningful competition to perform at his best.
I agree. We need to find others like him. One, a big time pitcher who just needs a change of scenery. Two, a pitcher inappropriately coached to the point of failure: like Arrieta. Three, a young pitcher ready to blossom: like Gerrit Cole. Of course, I thought the latter was Chatwood, and I was wrong, as was the front office.
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I have seen some vicious slams in my time, but accusing the Cubs Front Office of being as stupid as CurtOne is really being nasty.
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Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been hyping Hamels as a Cub longer than anyone this season and I’m inclined to bring him back. But that’s a lot of money and the Cubs are going to have a lot of SP options on paper.
.
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You know there's absolutely no way Lester isn't starting in the postseason (probably game 1), no matter what he does the last six weeks.
Clearly you know things some of the rest of us do not.
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I think Lester's problem is that he's just not that good anymore. As for Quintana, there's some talk that he's dramatically changed his pitch mix from his South Side days - dropping the cutter, for example.
Not to dispute any of this, but if Quintana has dropped the cutter, and the cutter was an essential pitch to his effectiveness, the obvious question would be why? Why in the world has he dropped it?
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According to this board no matter how good Lester does he still sucks and no matter how much Hendricks sucks he's still good.
This board is seldom monolithic on much of anything, including the question of the relative performance or value of Lester and Hendricks.
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Quintana's heavy cutter usage was 2012 at 25.99%. In 2013 it dropped to 13.40%. 2014 2.71%, 2015 4.50%, 2016 0.49%.
Except for the first 2 years it was his 5th pitch. Quintana's issue this year is command, not his pitch mix.
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If Hendricks finishes strong, the Cubs would be smart to explore trades in the offseason. His reputation probably exceeds his performance going forward, and there’s just not much margin for error there.
I always find it amusing how many people seem to believe that they are the only ones who can do something as simple as looking at a player's stat line or who seem to think that a large number of other team's general managers are simply blithering idiots.
I am not really commenting here on Hendricks, nor suggesting that brjones is the only one who does this (or even that I never do), but it is amusing how we often seem to think that a large number of opposing general managers are fools.
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Quintana's heavy cutter usage was 2012 at 25.99%. In 2013 it dropped to 13.40%. 2014 2.71%, 2015 4.50%, 2016 0.49%.
Except for the first 2 years it was his 5th pitch. Quintana's issue this year is command, not his pitch mix.
So you want us to have our opinions actually influenced by facts?
What kind of nonsense is that?
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After reading the posts in this topic and the Today's Game topic, it's hard to remember the Cubs still have the best record in the league.
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Darvish left his rehab start early. Felt something he didn't like in warmups.
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Bummer. Maybe Chatwood will turn it around next start!
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SMFH...
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dk-7iaLWwAAhSB0.jpg:small)
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Sometimes words arent even needed.
I dont have to even comment and you all know exactly what I have to say and that it's spot on.
Theo has given out 3 big contracts and 2/3 have been disappointments.
That's why we shouldnt touch Bryce Harper with a 10 foot pole and gloves on.
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Darvish indicated he wants another MRI. Felt similar pain as his last rehab start. Stopped pitching as soon as he felt it.
https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1031255471762624512
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Well, that probably means you can't realistically expect him to pitch again this season.
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What a huge disappointment Darvish has been.
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If after 2+ months on the DL, if Darvish cannot get past 1 inning without the pain returning, it seems highly unlikely he'll throw another pitch in the ML for the Cubs this year, doesn't it?
Which would mean the Cubs will somehow have to get by with Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana and Montgomery (if he can come back soon, and if not, lord knows who). I suppose the silver lining is that Lester was very good his last outing (after he said he'd figured out why he'd been doing so badly before) and Quintana was better today. Still, the road looks pretty rocky going forward.
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
Would it be better to forfeit those games in order to save the bullpen?
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Well that sucks.
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Yeah, that probably seals the deal on Darvish pitching again this season. Might be time to consider some sort of waiver wire trade, if there’s anything out there - Chatwood starting again this year really shouldn’t be an option.
Maybe Trevor Clifton?
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Pick up Colon or Harvey or Wheeler off waivers. Is Lackey busy?
Deeg and I both were for signing Darvish and Chatwood. On the plus side, we also were for Hamels. And to totally acquit myself, it was Deeg who took full responsibility for Darvish. Full.
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Hey, that was a great contract if Darvish had a clean medical report when he signed it. He’s a pitcher, this **** does happen. Obviously there’s something wrong in the elbow- if it means another TJS just do it and get it over with ASAP.
As for Chatwood, well - that’s obviously a disappointment. But fair to point out Cobb and Lynn have likewise been awful.
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Wheeler would never get through waivers and the Mets turned down good offers for him already - they have no incentive to move him. As to Colon, why bother.
Harvey remains kind of interesting. The Reds thought they could get him through waivers. It’s not like he’s throwing lights out but the velocity is pretty good at least, and the last couple of starts have been pretty good.
Actually the more you think about Harvey the more sense he makes. What leverage do the Reds have? They get nothing if they don’t trade him. I don’t know if he’s passed through waivers already (before those two good starts) but if not, the Cubs and Brewers certainly have incentive to keep the other from getting him.
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If Harvey were to make it through waivers as far as St Louis or Milwaukee, either or both would be foolish not to claim him. If he stinks, they have lost nothing but the waiver cost, and if he does well, they keep him from helping the Cubs.
Do we know if he has already passed through waivers?
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I think the Cubs' only real option will be if a starter passes through waivers because he makes too much money for anyone to claim him. As davep said, anyone reasonably appealing like Harvey probably won't make it past other NL contenders. And anyone cheap who passes through waivers probably isn't better than current Cub option.
Looking at the free agent list for this offseason, maybe James Shields and Marco Estrada would be decent?
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James Shields stopped being decent in Kansas City
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Shields has actually been surprisingly decent this year--1.4 fWAR, which would be second among Cubs starters. He's been pretty close to league average.
He's not good, but it probably beats throwing Chatwood out there.
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Wonder if the Nationals would part with Gio or Hellickson.
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I doubt either would make it to the Cubs on waivers. Even with his down year, someone ahead of the Cubs would claim Gio hoping they could get a Hamels-type rebound from him.
Hellickson is so cheap--roughly $500K the rest of the year--that he'd get claimed by the Brewers or Cardinals just to keep him away from the Cubs. He also apparently hit the DL a couple days ago, so he wouldn't be much help in the short term anyway.
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Just probing through the garbage for some backup.
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
They could probably talk Shawn Estes to come out of retirement.... and he likely wouldn't be much worse than he was before.
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Didn't we used to have this guy?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2791752-dodgers-zac-rosscup-strikes-out-the-side-on-9-pitches-for-immaculate-inning?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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Theo has given out 3 big contracts and 2/3 have been disappointments.
This has very little to do with Theo, and a great deal to do with big free agent contracts.
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The Cubs will play the Pirates in the 2019 Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA. Highlights of this year's event between the Phillies and the Mets were fun to watch.
http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=24420529
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You don’t want Darvish having a second TJS. The success rate on 2nd TJS is much worse than the first.
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On Friday, Darvish felt pain in his elbow for the first 10 pitches of a throwing session, but then he altered his mechanics and felt better. He carried that over to Tuesday, when he kept the same mechanics in play. Darvish thinks he'll simulate a couple innings in the bullpen in a couple days, take a break, then throw some more. He hasn't pitched in a big league game since late May.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24247892/yu-darvish-chicago-cubs-pain-free-35-pitch-bullpen-session
It looks like we were all guilty of wishful thinking. The underlying problem was still there.
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You don’t want Darvish having a second TJS. The success rate on 2nd TJS is much worse than the first.
If his UCL is shot it's going to happen anyway - better sooner than later.
If there's nothing with the UCL, I don't see any obvious explanation for why this has become such a chronic issue. Hopefully there is one, and it's fixable short of surgery.
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If his UCL is shot it's going to happen anyway - better sooner than later.
If there's nothing with the UCL, I don't see any obvious explanation for why this has become such a chronic issue. Hopefully there is one, and it's fixable short of surgery.
A lot of things can cause elbow pain that aren't related to UCL. The recovery rate for a second TJS is below 50%, so him undergoing a second TJS is close admitting he's done as a pitcher. The Cubs should do everything possible to avoid it. Even if he had TJS tomorrow and returned it wouldn't be until 2020 when he's pitching again, so there isn't a rush.
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If Yu is unable to pitch again until 2020, would the Cubs have to eat the entire cost of his salary?
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Depends on the insurance policy.
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An insurance policy on a pitcher with a TJS would be really expensive. The bigger question for me is if the Cubs have an insurance policy does his full salary count towards the CBT.
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Can't they just inject some stem cells and he'll be good as new?
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Stem cells injections haven't been proven to be effective, but I'd certainly try that before another TJS surgery. *Not speaking as any sort of authority, just going off of the numbers of what a second TJS means, recovery time etc........
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The real important thing is to remember that Deeg is totally responsible for all of this.
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I was an Arrieta guy myself.
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Plenty of concerning things about Arrieta too. Put me in the Cubs need to draft pitchers that throw hard and hope some of the work out. Mass drafting of guys with ok fastballs isn't working.
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
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If he had it to do over again, he'd have gotten some of the Cardinals scouts input and signed Mikolas, that guy has been a great value, particular value-per-dollar. Not that I'm jealous or anything of what they've gotten on a $15/2 deal on Mikolas, versus what Theo got on $38/3 Chatwood and $126/6 Darvish....
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If he had it to do over again, he'd have gotten some of the Cardinals scouts input and signed Mikolas, that guy has been a great value, particular value-per-dollar. Not that I'm jealous or anything of what they've gotten on a $15/2 deal on Mikolas, versus what Theo got on $38/3 Chatwood and $126/6 Darvish....
I believe they were after Mikolas, but he chose the Cardinals because his hometown is where they have spring training.
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I liked all three Japanese imports: Mikolas, Hirano, and Ohtani. Didn't have high expectations of getting Ohtani, but Mikolas and Hirano would have been fabulous finds.
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
I doubt that...at least not at the price Arrieta was seeking for most of the offseason. If he'd been willing to take the creative deal he settled for with the Phillies in mid-January, then sure, maybe they would've preferred that. But at the time Darvish signed, he was still looking for more guaranteed money than Darvish got. That would've been an extremely risky signing given Arrieta's declining stuff.
I still think Darvish was by far the better choice at the time the deal was made, and I think there's still a better than 50/50 chance that he looks like the right choice over a similarly-priced Arrieta 3 years from now.
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
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I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
That tells me one of two things:
A) There are LOTS of stupid folks who use twitter;
B) Your prior tweets were, well, not at all likable.
Of course the two are not really mutually exclusive.
The idea that Darvish's problem is one of his arm but is one of lack of heart, is simply nonsense.
And the fact that you have previously insisted that your dislike for Japanese pitchers has nothing to do with bias toward the Japanese, but is instead a result of Japanese pitchers being overused and arriving in the U.S. with arms that are ticking timebombs, would seem to be clearly contrary to your current lack of heart claim.
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
I suspect if Theo knew last fall what he knows now, the Cubs would have rejected the demands of both Davish and Arrieta.
I was in the Darvish camp.
I should have been in the camp wanting the Cubs to pass on both, and I don't recall any of those here last fall.
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You can only use 180 characters. I would guess most of your friends don't have a large enough vocabulary to finish a complete senten
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
Got a link?
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
Yes, Twitter is known for the depth of knowledge and nuanced understanding (as well as the absence of ethnic or racial prejudice) of those who tweet. (Ask our President)
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Arrieta is 11th in WHIP amongst starters in the NL. That makes him statistically a #1/2. He would have improved our chances to go the WS this season. I think it would have been worth the risk in terms of his performance down the road.
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Mike Fiers has a WHIP of 1.20 to Arrieta’s 1.21. Fiers also has a better K/9 and BB/9 than Arrieta.
Mike Fiers is not a #1/2.
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From Sharma's latest article...Cubs run distribution vs. the other top 10 teams in MLB:
(https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/08/20163306/Screen-Shot-2018-08-20-at-4.30.57-PM.png:small)
Basically, the Cubs get shut down far more often than other good teams. This offense is dysfunctional. Hopefully the front office realizes this offseason that they need to change it up. Too bad there won't be anyone available who fits their timeline, payroll, and needs this year like Yelich did last year.
EDIT: Article (the image I linked isn't appearing): https://theathletic.com/481266/2018/08/20/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-the-ugly-numbers-behind-the-cubs-slumping-offense/
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1.) 7/10 top ten teams by wRC+ are AL teams. When comparing run distributions to teams with a DH vs a team that is running out pitchers with a .230 OPS isn't exactly fair.
2.) Look at the run distribution of the Dodgers the Cubs have 3 more shut outs and 5 more 1 run games. You can't convince me that is *statistically* significant in any way.
3.) The Cubs biggest issue on offense is the lack of HR. The rank 21st in MLB in HR. The 2017 Cubs had 11 players with an ISO above .150, with 7 above .200. The 2016 Cubs had 10 players with an ISO above .150 (not counting Arrieta). The 2018 Cubs have 2 players with an ISO above .200, and 9 above .150. That includes Zagunis and his 6 PA, Bote and his 109 PA.
4.) Yelich wouldn't be that big of an improvement over the Cubs OF. The have pretty much 2+ WAR at each OF position.
5.) The offense in the second half has been bad. Only Zobrist, Rizzo, Baez (currently slumping), Bote and LaStella have a wRC+ above 100. 3 of those guys are part time players.
6.) Only 7 of the Cubs 0 or 1 run games that the Cubs lost did the opposing team score less than 4 runs
7.) Hendricks, Darvish, Quintana, Lester and Chatwood combined have 2.7 fWAR. That would rank them them 27th on the INDIVIDUAL fWAR leader board tied with Kyle Gibson and Marco Gonzales. Montgomery and Hamels have combined for 1.9 fWAR in 17 starts.
8.) Despite all of this the Cubs still have the best record in the NL, largest division lead in the NL and a larger division lead than the Astros.
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Very interesting article by Sharma, who is terrific! brjones, you and Chris have been lamenting the offense most all season and, since the break, if not before at times, you've been right (as Sharma points out).
I thought Cubs would be moving up the HR ranks with a bullet by now, but Craig's lack of power concerns have been validated.
We all know that hitting is contagious and that losing a guy like Bryant from the offense has a ripple effect. It's appeared to me in recent games that the Cubs are pressing and that only exacerbates the problem....but it's usually what happens...lack of hitting is contagious, too.
We need about 3 guys to get hot at once and guys like Contreras, Schwarber, Happ would really help, so we aren't overly reliant on Baez and Rizzo. I suspect Russell's hand issue will put him on the bench for a while when Bryant returns. He's contributing very, very little at the plate right now. Bote would be a better option, but he finally appears to be slumping, too.
There's little doubt that Cubs better fix this issue sooner than later or the lack of offense may take us right out of the playoff picture (if our starting pitching doesn't).
It's a real testimonial to the grit and resilience of our guys (as well as Joe and the FO) for finding a way to stay on top while facing such a tremendous set of vexing issues this season!
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Why is it that every time Dusty comments on an Asian player dogs everywhere start barking madly?
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uh yeah I’ll take Yelich over anything they have in the OF
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Those aren't dogs. They're his Twitter friends.
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Sharma's not the only one:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2791455-i-find-it-very-difficult-to-watch-why-mlb-greats-think-baseballs-in-trouble?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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My favorite part of that was Leyland unable yet through a sentence without getting bleeped.
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4.) Yelich wouldn't be that big of an improvement over the Cubs OF. The have pretty much 2+ WAR at each OF position.
Yelich is close to twice that, a borderline MVP candidate, and is currently playing for one of the Cubs' top rivals. Without him, the Brewers would be buried. With him, the Cubs would lead the Cardinals by a couple more games.
Of course, with Chili Davis as the hitting coach, Yelich would've been encouraged to not take advantage of his more HR friendly ballpark in the most homer friendly era of MLB history. So maybe he wouldn't have helped that much.
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uh yeah I’ll take Yelich over anything they have in the OF
Yelich is better than any of the Cubs OF's that isn't debatable. He's been worth 3.7 fWAR so far this year.
The Cubs OF (Prorated for Happ and Zobrist on innings)
Zobrist has been worth 1.5 fWAR
Schwarber 2.5 fWAR
Heywood 2.0 fWAR
Almora 1.4 fWAR
Happ 1.1 fWAR
LF for the Cubs has been over 3 fWAR
CF 2.5ish fWAR
RF 2.5-3 fWAR
OF production isn't the problem.
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Yelich is close to twice that, a borderline MVP candidate, and is currently playing for one of the Cubs' top rivals. Without him, the Brewers would be buried. With him, the Cubs would lead the Cardinals by a couple more games.
Of course, with Chili Davis as the hitting coach, Yelich would've been encouraged to not take advantage of his more HR friendly ballpark in the most homer friendly era of MLB history. So maybe he wouldn't have helped that much.
The Brewers would be buried if the Cubs 5 starters to begin the year produced more than 2.7 fWAR. Hendricks is on pace for 2.3 fWAR. He's the only guy performing close to what I would have thought. Lester and Quintana are both going to be most likely under 1.5 fWAR on the season and the Cubs FA signings are going to negative. That is THE problem with this team. Current offensive slump excluded.
I think a bigger contributor than Davis is injuries to Bryant, Rizzo, Russell to the Cubs power slump. Contreras had a big drop in his ISO, but he's hitting less ground balls and more fly balls this year.
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Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.
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Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.
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Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.
Cubs leadoff hitters .374/.456/.831 wRC+ 123
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Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.
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CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going. That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4. Your example is lying with statistics. But I think goblue was saying that.
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Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.
What big improvement does that give you? How does it effect Rizzo and Baez that they can't bump up to the leadoff spot when they are struggling? Who does Yelich replace? What would he have cost in a trade? How does a 1ish WAR improvement in the OF make a dramatic change to the offense?
Just going Yelich is big improvement is weak and both you and br are better than that.
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Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.
Murphy's defensive metrics have been really, really bad for a while. Not sure if that kind of defensive hit is worth his bat in the lineup.
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Yelich might have been a 1ish WAR improvement...but I think he would've been a 3-5 real life win improvement.
This offense is dysfunctional, and it has been for almost 2 full seasons now. I'm convinced that one very good player (like Yelich) contributes much more than a pretty good platoon like Almora/Happ, and it's something Fangraphs hasn't really figured out how to quantify yet. We'll see as metrics continue to evolve--in 5 years, I think we're going to look back at the 2017-18 Cubs as teams who placed too much emphasis on overall run scoring over being good on a day-to-day basis.
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Offense is never consistent. The problem with this team has been run prevention. The 2016 gave up 556 runs, the 2018 Cubs have given up 499 already, or 4.05 runs/game.
The starting pitching is the problem with this team. On offense it has been the lack of HR, not strike outs or lack of getting on base that has been the problem.
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Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
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Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going. That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4. Your example is lying with statistics. But I think goblue was saying that.
I never said Yelich wouldn't improve the team. He's great. I just don't think there is some huge gain to be made.
Cubs top 2 leading players at leadoff by PA
Almora 185 PA wRC+ 123
Zobrist 139 PA wRC+ 122
Rizzo, Bryant and Baez have a combined 39 games at leadoff and they were put at leadoff to try and get them going when they were struggling.
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My point was that when the lineup is manipulated as often as Joe is prone to do, it skews the results. Is our #8 hitter that weak or is something else at play? Is our #9 hitter that strong is or something else at play? It's called confirmation bias and it afflicts many in baseball who love the stats. It's what old timers like in the above articles are complaining about. We pick and choose stats that prove that 6 angels dance on the knob of a bat in order to deny that what we're observing is not actually happening.
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They problem is our observation of the team and what is happening is subject to our own biases. I'm certainly subject to that and why I lean heavily on stats, because my memory will confirm my biases.
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....We all know that hitting is contagious and that losing a guy like Bryant from the offense has a ripple effect. It's appeared to me in recent games that the Cubs are pressing and that only exacerbates the problem....but it's usually what happens...lack of hitting is contagious, too....
Cubs composite offensive numbers are good (OBP, BA, slugging, runs). They are still 3rd in the league in runs. Being 3rd in runs with 2016 rotation (and 2018 pen) would be great. Their season-long leads in some of those areas has been dwindling lately, though, since recent games factor.
Blue and ben speak to two points. Blue's that hitting is inconsistent. Guys bounce hot-and-cold. Every team has off games. We remember all of our struggles, but there's little unique about that, every team goes through them. So, maybe we're due for some bounce-back good, and for the rest of the season the offense will score about as many or more runs than anybody else in the league, recent weeks notwithstanding? Slumps come and go, don't sweat it.
Ben's contagion point makes me more nervous, though. The seasonal numbers that look good are built in a past that has had some guys having some repeating and extended hot periods. But for the moment, I'm not sure there's anybody who's hot or carrying the team. Maybe Russell, Heyward, and Bote already had their fluke hot streaks, and Baez too, and there is no reason to expect those guys to get hot again?
So I'm a little nervous this might go like 2008 Cubs; a great seasonal offense then led the league by huge margin. But those seasonal numbers were built early, and by September Soto and Soriano and Theriot etc. had all cooled off; there wasn't anybody who felt dangerous going into October. Where they got easily swept out.
One of the issues with a low-HR machine is that it does kind of require a collective of hitters to score the OBP way. A fluke HR can occur at any moment, sometimes even with a guy on base. But when you need several guys to get hits, that's hard when you've got several guys in auto-out mode.
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Craig Mish @CraigMish
Source indicates the Chicago Cubs claimed Daniel Murphy from the Nationals. Working out a deal.
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This is big if true. I guess the front office sees the need for more offense.
Robert Murray @ByRobertMurray
#Cubs acquiring Daniel Murphy from the #Nationals, sources tell The Athletic.
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Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Sources: Nationals fire sale is beginning. Multiple trades are being finalized.
Sounds like a big baseball news day.
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This is big if true. I guess the front office sees the need for more offense.
Robert Murray @ByRobertMurray
#Cubs acquiring Daniel Murphy from the #Nationals, sources tell The Athletic.
I think it says more about Bryant and Russell health going forward than anything. I'd keep both of them in bubble wrap until just before the playoffs start.
Bringing in Murphy can certainly jump start a struggling offense in the second half.
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
prospect Andruw monasterio is going to nats for murphy
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Who?
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I was hoping they gave up Darvish for him. :)
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Who?
Defensive middle infielder for the Pelicans.
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Murphy puts the 40-man roster back at 40.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
No corresponding move announced yet. Cubs can wait until Murphy arrives. Addison Russell has been coping with a puffy knuckle on his left middle finger. Also a few players with minor league options.
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This might be inconsequential small sample size stuff, but Murphy has a career 1.020 OPS in the postseason. We obviously got a big dose of that handed to us in 2015.
If anything, he’s been the type of guy who can hit the types of pitchers we’ll see in October, so hopefully we’ll see more of that.
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Acquiring Murphy provides at least 3 potential benefits:
1 - a very good DH vs AL teams (he likely won't be playing tonight, but maybe tomorrow night and certainly vs the White Sox in mid-September, when wins will seem even more critical)
2 - a very good guy to rotate in at 2b to give Russell's hand time to heal and give Joe more options, and, presumably, a PLUS pinch hitter in clutch situations (Joe will find a way to keep him happy)
3 - a guy who absolutely KILLS the Cubs, so we won't have to face him in critical situations the rest of the way coming to the plate for another team trying to put us away.
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Now if Murphy just visualizes all opposing pitchers as Cubs pitchers.
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Good thinking, Chris! Maybe playing half his games at Wrigley will help with that!
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That's why this is the best Cubs board around.
We knew this was going down last night.
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Mike Rizzo PC on MLB right now...
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I like it. I'm probably not objective, though, because the only time I watch Murphy is against the Cubs!
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What is his injury history this year?
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He missed the start of the season with a leg issue.
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Wondering if this is a platoon thing. Hard to keep Zobrist on the bench the way he's hitting.
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I think this is a great deal, at the very least unlikely to come back to bite us.
But I am old enough to remember a pitcher named Russ Meyer. His career started off with the Cubs, and naturally, they traded him away (sold him?) just in time for him to get fairly good. But most of all, he was known as a "Cub Killer", having an outstanding record against the Cubs. So they got him back in a trade, and he stunk up Wrigley field for most of one season before they let him go.
But he should go on a hot streak, he might be able to drag the rest of the Cubs offense with him, kind of like Cespedes did for the Mets a few years ago.
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Who goes down to make room on the 25 man? LaStella?
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Jeff Blauser
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What is his injury history this year?
He looked really gimpy/slow when playing the Cubs. His running is probably going to be more on the Schwarber end of the spectrum, maybe even slower.
And his defensive range probably won't be good great.
But he's hitting .300, after .322 and .347 the past two seasons. The guy can hit, which we can use. Sure, we can put that negatively (he's "only" .300, so he's in decline from his .347 year.....!) But I think having a .300-hitter in the mix can help. Heh heh, maybe he'll also fit in with the Cubs because like all of them except Javy, his HR-power is also down, too.
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I had a feeling he was going to the cubs
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He has never a great runner, but he had articular cartilage surgery in his knee. I'm seem to remember that they had to do microfracture surgery on it, which is tough to rehab. He has been hitting well since July, so he should help out on offense. On defense he's a downgrade at 2B. I wonder if they might try him at 3B depending on who is pitching because of his range.
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https://www.outsports.com/platform/amp/2018/3/6/17084216/billy-bean-daniel-murphy-mlb-gay-lifestyle?__twitter_impression=true
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Thanks for that link, Dusty. Guess it shows Murphy was rather old-fashioned in his views, but a good enough guy that he could open his heart at least some to others with different perspectives.
The article also shows how important Billy Bean is to MLB. It's certainly high time to accept that gay people are just people and to help promote inclusion within MLB.
At any rate, Cubs won't really need Murphy to lead others, but just fit in and HIT! Joe (and Rizz and others) will help him feel comfortable, get acclimated and fit in. He might provide a boost of energy and some pop that's exactly what the Cubs need right now...sure hope so!
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Darvish out for the year with a stress reaction in his elbow.
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Also has a triceps strain.
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Darvish out for the year with a stress reaction in his elbow.
Does that self-heal with rest? Or will the elbow get stressed again next year by the same forces once he starts pitching again?
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 2m2 minutes ago
Theo on Darvish stress-reacton/bone bruise diagnosis: “We’re really disappointed. But at least we have some clarity and can move forward.” Said the upside is reconstructed UCL in elbow “looked really good and is in place and stable.” Darvish expected to be healthy for spring.
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Murphy, wow... Undeniably, can hit - average, power. Just as undeniably a terrible defender since the surgery, and was bad before it.
What was already going to be some difficult decision-making for Maddon just got a lot harder. Presumably this means Happ is a pinch-hitter now, and we won't see much of Bote and Almora except against lefties. For now maybe Russell goes on the DL or to the bench and Baez becomes the everyday SS at last. No dropoff defensively there, but from Baez to Murphy is a precipice.
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I wonder if Happ could get optioned at some point.
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Why? He's a switch-hitter who can play multiple positions. Even with the roster as it is now there's an argument he should be one of the regulars.
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I think the move has to be to put Russell on the DL for the rest of the month. He has been playing through an injury for a while and has been really bad while doing it. We're only 10 days from rosters expanding, so the roster crunch is gone when he comes back. From what I've seen of Bote's defense, I'm comfortable with him as emergency shortstop for 10 days.
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I think the move has to be to put Russell on the DL for the rest of the month. He has been playing through an injury for a while and has been really bad while doing it. We're only 10 days from rosters expanding, so the roster crunch is gone when he comes back. From what I've seen of Bote's defense, I'm comfortable with him as emergency shortstop for 10 days.
In addition to his now inflamed shoulder, Russell has been battling a sore knuckle.
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I wonder if Kintzler will give his #20 up for Murphy when he...
Oh, no...
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8314/
Please tell me this is a typo and Murphy isn't really number 80.
(It's not the year he was born -- that's '85 -- so what could this number mean?)
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Yeah, the Russell DL move is obvious. I was thinking after that but forgot about expanding rosters.
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If we make the playoffs, have to assume Murphy and Zobrist play every day vs. righties. That probably means no Russell, and two OF spots decided between Heyward, Schwarber, and Happ. Against lefties Almora for Schwarber I suppose, and maybe Russell for either Z or Murphy. Maybe you get Happ in there too, really stack the lineup and hope for the best - though he, Murphy and Zobrist have all been pretty bad vs. lefties this year.
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If we make the playoffs,
pfft!
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I wonder if Kintzler will give his #20 up for Murphy when he...
Oh, no...
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8314/
Please tell me this is a typo and Murphy isn't really number 80.
(It's not the year he was born -- that's '85 -- so what could this number mean?)
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19s19 seconds ago
For #Cubs numbers geeks, Daniel Murphy will wear No. 3
No word on the corresponding roster move.
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Last Cub to wear #3 - David Ross
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The Cubs are in perfectly fine shape. The players are well rested due to Joe's approach to the lineup and late season burn out shouldn't be an issue even with so few days off. The offense seems sure to heat up substantially and the starting pitching appears to be stabilizing. The bullpen should continue to be solid. The Cards and/or Brewers could get stay/get hot, but we have enough games against them to determine our own fate. Let's get it on.
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Sahadev Sharma
Verified account
@sahadevsharma
11s12 seconds ago
More
Addison Russell heads to the DL with a sprained left middle finger. Right shoulder is barking too, but the finger is the official reason he's shelved for now. Daniel Murphy active and leading off.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Bryant “close” to starting rehab assignment, Maddon said. looked very good during pregame work.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Bryant “close” to starting rehab assignment, Maddon said. looked very good during pregame work.
That's great news
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But looks like a setback for Morrow - leaving the team to head back to Chicago for "more tests". Not a great FA crop for Theo so far.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19s19 seconds ago
For #Cubs numbers geeks, Daniel Murphy will wear No. 3
Thank. God.
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I'm not sure I understand how the Cubs were able to get Murphy. It seems like a number of contending teams would have had interest in him and would have had the ability to offer more than what the Nats received. Explanation?
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Conspiracy
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Aidan Jackson-Evans
Most pickoff attempts by an #MLB catcher, 2018:
73 = Willson Contreras
28 = Martín Maldonado
23 = Manny Piña
#Cubs' Contreras has attempted more than 2.5 times as many pickoffs as any other catcher in the majors this season.
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I'm not sure I understand how the Cubs were able to get Murphy. It seems like a number of contending teams would have had interest in him and would have had the ability to offer more than what the Nats received. Explanation?
A claiming team would have been on the hook for $4 million. Some teams are poor and others have luxury tax concerns.
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Thanks, Jeff. That seems like a relatively small price to pay for a team that's on the playoff bubble.
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The Cubs may have a deal with another team that, in return, they'll pass on a player the other team is interested in.
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Marrow is more just checking again to make sure nothing is wrong vs a setback from what I've seen.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 7s7 seconds ago
Alec Mills to start Friday
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Chatwood to the DL.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 9m9 minutes ago
Dillon Maples recalled
Maples probably goes back to Iowa to make room for Alec Mills on Friday.
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Chatwood to the DL.
With what supposed injury?
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His control flexor is torn.
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Is that the same as the directional atrebious tendon? That's bad.
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On the injury front, here is Darvish's full account of his injury situation, so the folks saying he's faking it can go **** themselves with it.
https://twitter.com/mikaotx/status/1032680397350551554/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1032680397350551554&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2F2018%2F08%2F23%2Fyu-darvish-reveals-in-detail-what-happened-during-his-rehab-process%2F
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<Deeg wants Dusty to do what to himself?>
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Im married.
I dont have to do that anymore.
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Murphy was asked about his checkered history with homophobia at his first Wrigley press conference. It was a pretty evasive answer - mostly he just talked about Billy Bean, as usual. But he does at least seem to have progressed a little, to his credit.
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/srTYyZ1BjBtGU/giphy.gif)
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
Replying in the Politics and Religion topic, because goblue's GIF is accurate and no one wants to read the follow-up.
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Keith Law with the pun of the day after Chatwood's "hip injury."
keithlaw @keithlaw
heard the Cubs put Chatwood on the DL with WHIP inflammation
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Keith Law with the pun of the day after Chatwood's "hip injury."
keithlaw @keithlaw
heard the Cubs put Chatwood on the DL with WHIP inflammation
Reminds me of Gerald Ford's WIN buttons (Whip Inflation Now).
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
Possibly the fact that he has said he doesn't like gays or the "gay lifestyle," combined with the fact that there is no "gay lifestyle."
Being opposed to the "gay lifestyle" and not being homophobic is about like a white person being opposed to the "black lifestyle" and not being racist. There is no "black lifestyle." There is no "gay lifestyle." There is merely thinly veiled bigotry.
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In only 5 starts and 34 IP, Hamels is now second among Cubs starters in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
If Hendricks falters at all, there's a chance Hamels could end up being the Cubs' most valuable starting pitcher this year in only 10-11 starts.
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In only 5 starts and 34 IP, Hamels is now second among Cubs starters in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
If Hendricks falters at all, there's a chance Hamels could end up being the Cubs' most valuable starting pitcher this year in only 10-11 starts.
Stats aside, this is already true.
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As predicted
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 14m14 minutes ago
#Cubs roster move: Mills called up from Iowa and Maples sent back
If I'm not mistaken, Maples still earns the MLB minimum salary for the entire month of August.
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Hilarious: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/24/omg-could-javy-baez-tag-out-javy-baez-video/
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Apologies to Ron! But just for fun, I looked at the standings to check on the WildCard status! (You know in the hypothetical that the Cardinals don't lose any more games and win the division.)
So, in the ***hypothetical*** that the red-hot Cardinals were to win the division, what would be the situation for the Cubs to hang in for the wildcard?
Not counting Cardinals, Cubs lead is:
3.5 Rockies
4 Brewers
5 Philly
7.5 Dodgers
That's pretty solid.
The Cardinals still have series with Rockies, Brewers, Dodgers and Braves, as well as Cubs, so if they are winning all of their games, some of the wildcard chasers are going to lose some. :):) .
Would be nicer, of course, if the Rockies won 2 or 3 this weekend.
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Wow - Hamels averaged 93.9 on the 4-seam fastball yesterday.
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I'd anticipated Alec Mills returning to Iowa in favor of a reliever. It looks like that is now on hold.
Mills struck out eight while filling in for Mike Montgomery, who is on the disabled list with left shoulder inflammation. Montgomery threw a bullpen session before the win and is scheduled for another one on Sunday.
"We'll wait 'til Sunday to figure out what we want to do next," manager Joe Maddon said. "But Alec really permitted us to think different thoughts."
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If Montgomery can't go, Mills has to be the guy for at least one more start - 23 games in 23 days.
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Wow - Hamels averaged 93.9 on the 4-seam fastball yesterday.
Deeg - you referred to Hamels as our Verlander recently, I think. It's early yet, but right now that doesn't seem an outrageous statement. It also led me to go see what the Astros gave up to get him (given how little the Cubs did for Hamels). I was surprised to read an article that said Verlander had been holding out in approving the trade because the Cubs were his first choice and he was hoping a deal would be made with them. I don't fault the Cubs for being unwilling to give up whatever was being demanded, but my goodness, imagine him in a Cubs uniform.
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Oh, yeah - that was well-documented at the time. Verlander definitely wanted to come to Chicago, and last year certainly would have played out differently had we traded for him instead of Houston. In a dream world, we'd have done so before the deadline and never made the Quintana trade.
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Verlander has a 4.73 ERA in the first half and was owed $60+ million. People would have gone blastic on this board.
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Think that entirely would've depended on the price.
No assurances Verlander is this dominant somewhere other than Houston anyway.
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I wouldn't have gone blastic. I remember hoping for Verlander.
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Bullshi t. Plenty of people on this board were arguing for a Verlander acquisition (including me). You can look it up.
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I'll admit that I wasn't that interested in getting Verlander. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations with Houston. Right now, the Astros have pitching staff magic, there's no chance Verlander would've pitched this well anywhere else.
The idea that Verlander would've been a better acquisition at the time than Quintana is ludicrous. Quintana was 28 years old, and by any measure had been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the past 5 years. Verlander was 34 years old, having a mediocre year, and looked like he was in decline.
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I'll admit that I wasn't that interested in getting Verlander. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations with Houston. Right now, the Astros have pitching staff magic, there's no chance Verlander would've pitched this well anywhere else.
The idea that Verlander would've been a better acquisition at the time than Quintana is ludicrous. Quintana was 28 years old, and by any measure had been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the past 5 years. Verlander was 34 years old, having a mediocre year, and looked like he was in decline.
"A better acquisition" reflects not just the player, but the cost. Verlander was averaging 95 at Detroit last season, K-ing better than a man per inning and allowed 153 hits in 172 IP. There were a lot of reasons to think in a contender situation, he still had it to be a very good pitcher indeed. This is not hindsight - it's what myself and some others were saying at the time. And it's really not ludicrous to have suggested that he could be better than Quintana for the next couple of years, irrespective of the prospect cost, considering that Quintana isn't a TORP in the first place. And there's certainly no reason to think he's only succeeding now because he's in Houston - he's at 95.2 on the fastball and throwing as well as he has in his entire career - that suggestion is what's ludicrous.
There was some talk of Verlander to the Cubs even before Theo jumped the queue with the Quintana deal, though the bulk of it came after the deadline. Obviously if the pro-Verlander voices had suspected Theo would be willing to give up what he did for a pitcher like Quintana, the argument for Verlander would have been an even more compelling one.
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Verlander in the first half
8.43 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 4.29 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 104.2 IP, 108 H, wOBA .327.
He was bad in the first half and didn’t turn it around untillate July/August. The fastball velocity was the only encouraging thing about him.
I liked Verlander as a trade target, but at the time of the Quintana trade Verlander was a better target only in retrospect.
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He also had 7.2 WAR in 2016 and ended up with 4.7 WAR before the trade.
I get that being wrong makes you desperate to argue no one else could have been right. Doesn't make it true, though.
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Interesting revisionist discussions of Verlander.
Despite the suggestion that Verlander might not have performed well with anyone other than the Astros, in 2018 he has a home ERA of 3.13 in Houston and 2.09 on the road. OPS+ allowed in 2018 of 80 at home and 61 on the road. Last year, after the trade he only pitched in five games for the Astros, three on the road allowing 3 earned runs in 20 innings, and two games at home allowing one earned run in 14 innings.
The Astros gave up Cameron Daz, a disappointing 20 year old CF 2015 first round draft pick (37th overall) https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camero000daz Franklin Perez, a 19 year old international signing starting pitcher who was at AA with a 3.09 ERA in 30 innings https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-019fra and Jake Rogers, a 22 year old former 3rd round draft pick catcher who had 18 HR and a .261 BA in about 500 PA between low and high A teams in 2017. Not bums, but no shining lights there, and a decent chance that none of them will ever play a single game in the majors.
The Quintana trade was two weeks earlier -- July 13th. Verlander was at the deadline.
In Cease and Jiminez the Cubs gave up two absolute high level prospects for Quintana, and two more throw ins. (Matt Rose was a former 11th round draft pick OF/1B who has a minor league career BA of .227 with an OPS of .703 in more than 1400 AB https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rose--003mat and Bryant Fleet, a 24 year old international signing utility player then in high A ball and now with a .256 career BA and a .695 OPS after just short of 2200 career minor league AB http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/cubs-in-'18/msg354084/#new ) Cease and Jimenez this year have done nothing to reduce their value or expectations.
Jimenez was ranked the 17th best prospect preseason last year, the 4th best preseason this year, and folks are now clamoring for the Sox to call him up after hitting .360 with an an ops above 1.0 and a K rate below 15% in AAA.
This seems to be about the middle of the Verlander discussion last year. I was not a big fan of going after him, but not strongly opposed. Reb seemed to be a fan, Craig seemed to lean against, CUBluejays supported, brjones strongly opposed, davep seemed to lean strongly against, deeg wanted the Cubs to stongly go after Darvish in the off season, Ron wanted him (if the prospect price was not too high), Dusty (not surprisingly) just wanted to see Verlander's wife in crowd cutaways during games.... then when the actual trade deadline reports were that the Tigers wanted Baez or Happ for Verlander, support for the move seemed to evaporate, though Robb and deeg still supported going after him.
The discussion of the Quintana trade is here.http://bbf.createaforum.com/archives/cubs-in-'17-reigning-champions-edition/2700/ Dusty, tico, playtwo and CUBluejays liked it. Most of the rest of us were quite unhappy with it.
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I still like it.
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The Quintana trade was two weeks earlier -- July 13th. Verlander was at the deadline.
Verlander was traded at the August 31st deadline after clearing waivers, but no team wanted to get stuck with the entire contract.
He also had 7.2 WAR in 2016 and ended up with 4.7 WAR before the trade.
I get that being wrong makes you desperate to argue no one else could have been right. Doesn't make it true, though.
Verlander's 1st half stats are exactly what he posted prior to the Quintana trade, 18 GS, 104.2 IP, 108H, 8.43 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 4.73 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 5.03 xFIP.
After the Qunitana trade and before he was traded we went 10 GS, 67.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 10.43 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.45 xFIP.
Where do you think most of the WAR was obtained?
Trading for Verlander over Quintana on July 13th only makes sense if you have knowledge of what happened after July 13th. If you can honestly make a compelling argument that 1st half Verlander and his contract was a better acquisition than Quintana his control at $34+ million through 2020 was better I'd love to hear it. But you need to use his stats up July 13, not after.
After Verlander turned it around he was somebody I wanted the Cubs to target. His 1st half numbers look at lot like Yu Davish's numbers with Cubs with less strike outs, so maybe there is still hope for Darvish. I'd still do the Quintana trade, but having Eloy and Cease could have led to a lot pitcher at this deadline, but again that is hindsight helped.
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Bryant implementing a 2-handed finish to reduce strain on the shoulder. My question is does it heal without surgery?
https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1033373614635184129
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Gordo raises kind of an interesting point on Hamels:
Theoretically, the Cubs could allow the Rangers to pay the buyout and then work out a free agent deal with Hamels – say, two years, $30 million, which would reduce the luxury-tax-related impact to $15 million.
I wonder - could the Cubs "decline", make the Rangers pay the $6 million, and then, say, give Hamels a 1 year/$15 million contract? Hamels comes out a mil ahead and the Cubs have $5 million less of a cap hit.
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I don’t see why they couldn’t. If Hamels does that or his option is picked up I wonder what the cost would be to get somebody like the Tigers to take the 2 years on left on Charwood’s deal would be.
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I think I suggested that when we got him and Jeff opined that we'd probably hear from the Commissioner's office...and the Rangers.
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I think I suggested that when we got him and Jeff opined that we'd probably hear from the Commissioner's office...and the Rangers.
That's possible for sure... But it would be hard to prove. The Cubs say "We like Cole but not at this price", Cole says "Any team is free to call", and the deal is signed.
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From Bruce Miles - something new for the baseball analysts to mull over
"I feel like days games, if I'm able to get this old body going, I feel like I see the ball better during the day," he said. "I don't know, I've seen something before that people who have darker eyes happen to see the ball better in the day, and (players with) lighter eyes, they struggle a little bit. I'm pretty sure my eyes are pretty dark."
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I'm sure the scientific validity of that is right in line with Murphy's past philosophical pronouncements.
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Murphy has better career splits in day games, but that hasn't been true over the past few years.
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Don’t underestimate the likelihood that the Cubs front office brought that to Murphy’s attention. Pretty sure I brought up the Theocracy’s current obsession with vision analysis about a month ago.
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I'm sure the scientific validity of that is right in line with Murphy's past philosophical pronouncements.
Guess he’s been right all along. It’s pretty common knowledge that lighter eyes are more sensitive to sunlight. Lighter eyes have less melanin which protects from the sun.
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After today's game the Cubs get Syndegaard and Degrom then Atlanta on Thursday then Philly on the weekend but miss Nola and they have really cratered of late. Then Milwaukee Washington and Milwaukee again. All this without a day off until the last Milwaukee series. If the Cubs can survive this stretch with they're division lead intact the last 16 games should be a lot easier with Az and Stl the only two good teams they'll face.
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I wonder - could the Cubs "decline", make the Rangers pay the $6 million, and then, say, give Hamels a 1 year/$15 million contract? Hamels comes out a mil ahead and the Cubs have $5 million less of a cap hit.
Of course the problem would be that as soon as the Cubs decline the option, Hamels is a free agent and the Cubs would have to compete with offers from any other team interested in Hamels.
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After today's game the Cubs get Syndegaard and Degrom then Atlanta on Thursday then Philly on the weekend but miss Nola and they have really cratered of late. Then Milwaukee Washington and Milwaukee again. All this without a day off until the last Milwaukee series. If the Cubs can survive this stretch with they're division lead intact the last 16 games should be a lot easier with Az and Stl the only two good teams they'll face.
Alec Mills will go up against Jason Vargas on Wednesday.
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https://www.dukehealth.org/blog/myth-or-fact-people-light-eyes-are-more-sensitive-sunlight
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The more you know.
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Great to see Hendricks pitch real well again on Sunday vs Reds.
Quite a contrast watching Homer Bailey's plus velocity get rocked again, while Hendricks basically sits in the mid-80s and just carves 'em up, and pile up the innings as he has the past 3+ years.
It's almost amazing watching him give up 6-10 mph to opposing starters and, then, completely outpitch them as he so often has during the Cubs' phenomenal stretch of the past going on 4 years.
Who knows what Hendricks will do from here on, but that's rather true with about any MLB pitcher.
However, when he has his release point and timing, what Kyle does prove is this: tho' having a mid-90s FB is great, plus command, late movement and the ability to change speeds from the same arm slot are WAY more important than velocity at the MLB level!
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Kyle needs to be this good if we’re going to have a shot in the postseason, probably.
Joe is certainly going to have some interesting decisions when Bryant comes back. I wonder if maybe Heyward, Murphy and Schwarber are all on the bench vs. lefties - neither Happ or Zobrist is good from the right side but Bote gives you a good option, and he’s not going to play much vs. righties.
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Zobrist actually has hit slightly better as a RH hitter over his career, and this was true as recently as 2016 (though not since). I would write off last season due to his injury, but he has been only mediocre as a RH hitter this season. He should start regularly vs. RHP and only sporadically vs. LHP.
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100% starters vs. righties: Murphy, Zobrist, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, Heyward, Schwarber, Bryant
100% starters vs. lefties: Bryant, Baez, Almora, Bote, Rizzo, Contreras
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Deeg, your LH and RH lineups certainly look good to me (particularly with Bryant back in there facing both!)
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Tony Rizzo is the NL player of the week.
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Cubs want a Yankees-like media network:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-tv-network-possible-20180113-story.html
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The Cubs wound up using relievers Pedro Strop, Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez in the ninth, with Chavez stranding the bases loaded and earning his second save.
"Chavez just knows what he's doing," Maddon said.
Since coming to the Cubs:
Innings - 21
ERA - 1.29
K - 25
BB - 2
WHIP - 0.76
I'd be a little more effusive than Joe Maddon when talking about Jesse Chavez.
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Yeah, he's been way, way better than expected. The peripherals back it up, but the career track record doesn't - gotta think a regression is coming sooner or later. He wasn't a bad pitcher before, but nowhere close to this good.
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With the recent HR output, the Cubs have moved up into 9th place in the NL in HR's. They've now moved up into 20th place in mlb.
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We often are aware of times the offense can't score, or gets stuck. But man, I look at some of the other lineups, and it's striking how bad they are.
The Cubs offense isn't good all the time; but when things are going well, it's a reminder of how difficult it is for some teams **all** the time, not just some of the time.
Mets, it's like they don't have *anybody* who's actually very good or very scary. Conforto killed one, and Lester nibbled around him very carefully; but the guy is hitting .230. Reds, without Votto they had Gennett and Suarez, but a lot of vulnerable guys. Scoring runs or even threatening to do so is really hard for so many teams.
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Note: Nightengale doesn't (or can't) bother to provide a source for these "whispers" so I'll call them alternative facts.
The rest of the column talks mostly about managerial salaries.
CHICAGO — Joe Maddon helped lead the Chicago Cubs to the Holy Grail of sports, with a consistent level of success they haven’t seen in a century, but there are whispers his job could be in jeopardy if they don’t play deep into October.
It's been a while since I've seen a site with so many obnoxious ads
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/08/27/baseball-managers-salaries-joe-maddon-dave-roberts-aj-hinch/1102815002/
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Except for maybe Jim Bowden, Nightengale is the worst of the major national reporters. No reason to take that seriously at all.
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Maddon has been fired. Details at 10:00
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The only real danger to Maddon, as I see it, is that it's pretty clear he scapegoated his coaches for the Cubs' issues last season, and got them replaced with his guys. So whatever goes wrong now, he pretty much has to own it.
In real news, Montgomery is apparently OK and coming back this week. That's potentially huge.
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it's pretty clear he scapegoated his coaches for the Cubs' issues last season
This is not at all clear to me.
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Of course you can interpret events as you see them. To me it seems pretty clear-cut that’s what happened.
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I don't see why Maddon would have needed to scapegoat anybody. The team had an excellent season in 2017.
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I have always gotten the impression that everyone (outside of maybe a few pitchers) was ready to move on from Bosio. Given how things went in Detroit, I don't think there would be any heat on Maddon for that one.
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The only place where I can see any legitimate criticism of the coaching changes is with Hickey. And it might even be premature to make a judgment on that.
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Joe Maddon's response to the Nightengale column
Joe Maddon responded to a national story in the USA Today regarding "whispers" his job could be in jeopardy without success in the playoffs. Next season is the final year of his contract: “It’s very uninteresting to me. I’m under contract. I’m very happy with what I’m doing. When the time is appropriate I’m sure we’ll discuss it further...When people (media) show up sporadically, they may get a different take on things. You guys are here all the time, you know what’s going on so therein lies the difference.”
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There's no way Maddon's job is in jeopardy at this point.
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Certainly not until his contract runs out at the end of next year.
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24508920/mlb-how-did-hitter-chicago-cubs-needed-land-their-laps
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24508920/mlb-how-did-hitter-chicago-cubs-needed-land-their-laps
That was really interesting. I've sometimes wondered how some of these waiver deals work out. Thanks for posting, Bennett.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-payroll-set-to-soar-with-potential-tv-deal/
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-payroll-set-to-soar-with-potential-tv-deal/
That is very interesting, but I wish he had included information on the salary cap/Luxury tax, and how it affects the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox, and how it could affect the Cubs.
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
Good read, but what I'd really like to know is how the Cardinals and Brewers didn't manage to keep the Cubs from getting him. Couldn't they have blocked it by claiming him and then failing to make a deal? Maybe it's more complicated than that?
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I doubt the Cards or Brewers wanted to risk the $5 million hit if the Nats just let him go. That's probably the biggest reason for them.
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Good read, but what I'd really like to know is how the Cardinals and Brewers didn't manage to keep the Cubs from getting him. Couldn't they have blocked it by claiming him and then failing to make a deal? Maybe it's more complicated than that?
As JR says, if they claim him and Washington won't make a deal, they just can stick them with his contract. However, I think it would have been a worthwhile price for either team to pay.
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As JR says, if they claim him and Washington won't make a deal, they just can stick them with his contract. However, I think it would have been a worthwhile price for either team to pay.
Things become much less worthwhile when you simply lack the money for them. It may well be that neither team had any extra budget room.
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Every "X" in the calendar without the Cards or Brewers getting closer is a win. It'd have been nice to sweep the Mets, but you lost a game with Mills pitching - not the end of the world.
How did Bote look at SS?
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Magic number dropped again. It is now at 26 with the Cardinals loss.
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Every "X" in the calendar without the Cards or Brewers getting closer is a win. It'd have been nice to sweep the Mets, but you lost a game with Mills pitching - not the end of the world.
How did Bote look at SS?
I didn't see much, but I thought he looked pretty bad. Like his range would be about 60% of Russell.
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Probably a more important question is whether he could handle 2B long-term.
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I hope the Cubs are very cautious about relying too heavily on Bote in the future. He is a nice piece having a nice run but his minor league career doesn't suggest he will be this good going forward and even now he has been pretty mediocre to bad the last few weeks despite hitting a dramatic homer to win another game. Since 7/19 his BA has dipped from .290 to .267. He has gone 5-31 since then striking out in a third of those at bats. I'm not saying that this is who we can expect him to be as he is clearly slumping right now, but other than last year he has been an average at best player most of his minor league career.
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IowaCubsGameDay @IowaCubsGameDay
Iowa goes for the sweep today at 12:08! Kris Bryant bats leadoff as the left fielder.
Will this be KB's last rehab game? Or to put it another way, will the Cubs activate him on Friday which would mean somebody would have to leave the 25-man roster for one day? I'm guessing Alec Mills won't be needed for a few days.
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Did Alec Mills pitch his way off the 6 man rotation with his performance yesterday?
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Mills did not pitch that badly yesterday. I'd say he's earned another start if the Cubs choose to go with a 6-man rotation.
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Could hear fans yelling after Bote failed to snag a dying quail in short left - screaming something like "Javy would have gotten that!"
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I hope the Cubs are very cautious about relying too heavily on Bote in the future. ...
He seems like a smart, all-in player who I think might be OK long-term. But, perhaps as a utility player as he's been used, rather than as a primary every-day guy.
From what I've seen, I wonder whether he might not be a guy who gets "scouted", and if it won't get a lot harder for him when the "book" is out.
I can imagine he might have something of a Schwarber/Happ experience and profile:
1. started in great and with great power as rookie.
2. Patient at the plate.
3. High effort, high-will players.
4. But after a while might settle in like those guys as .230's hitters with walks, power, and lots of K's, but low-average?
5. Like with Happ and Schwarber, I'm kinda nervous that the "book" will get out that they can't hit velocity above mid-thigh.
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Mills did not pitch that badly yesterday. I'd say he's earned another start if the Cubs choose to go with a 6-man rotation.
Agree. He gave up the HR, but that after the ump had given him no break on maybe some close-to-the-edge pitches. And after a couple of groundballs that happened to go through for hits. Two easy groundouts versus two groundball singles, not sure any real difference in the pitching ability.
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I nominate Alec Mills to be the player who leaves the roster when Kris Bryant returns for the obvious reason that Mills won't be available for a few days and the rosters expand on Saturday.
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Mills is already leaving the roster today to make room for Montgomery.
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The Cubs not only have a tough 11 game road trip after playing 9 straight games and 3 cities in three nights, but they get Foltynewicz tonight, Nola, who was moved up to start Sunday and most likely Strasburg and Sherzer in Washington. If they somehow emerge from this stretch still up by a couple games in the division you have to like their chances. Unless the Cardinals continue to play .800 baseball the rest of the way.
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Cubs acquire catcher Bobby Wilson from Twins for Chris Gimenez. Cory Mazzoni DFA'd to make room on the 40-man roster. Wilson was placed on the 10-day DL on Aug 24.
I wanted them to get a new backup catcher before tomorrow, but Wilson doesn't really make the team any better.
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Wasn't Smyly supposed to pitch an inning for Iowa today? He didn't.
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It takes something special to be as bit a hitter as Wilson has been over as many career ABs as he's had. But he's a good framer...
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Wasn't Smyly supposed to pitch an inning for Iowa today? He didn't.
1 IP for South Bend, struck out the side.
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Cubs Nation suggesting Bryant left the AAA game after 3 innings to begin his travel to join the Cubs.
The expectation is that he will be available to the Cubs on Saturday!
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Cubs acquire catcher Bobby Wilson from Twins for Chris Gimenez. Cory Mazzoni DFA'd to make room on the 40-man roster. Wilson was placed on the 10-day DL on Aug 24.
I wanted them to get a new backup catcher before tomorrow, but Wilson doesn't really make the team any better.
he's no Yellich
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Interesting piece on Mike Montgomery from Sharma.
https://theathletic.com/497021/2018/08/30/mike-montgomery-found-a-new-pitch-over-the-past-month-and-now-hes-ready-for-october/?source=dailyemail
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Yeah, Deshaies mentioned that "slider" a number of times in the early going last night. I can see the value. Having the "feel" is probably a challenge.
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Waivers question:
Hypothetical Harvey: Suppose Reds exposed him; and somebody (hypothesize Milwaukee) claimed; no deal completed.
Q's:
1. How long does it take to place a guy on waivers placement-claim/not-claim-trade-or-not process?
2. Are there limits on how often a guy can be placed, and then replaced on waviers?
2. For example, could the reds waive Aug 1; repeat on Aug 5; repeat on Aug 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc.? Or could they do it every day, or once a week, or what?
4. Or is there some limit where you can't place a guy on waivers more than once or twice a season?
5. Or, you can't re-waive a guy for at least two weeks, or something?
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Waivers question:
Hypothetical Harvey: Suppose Reds exposed him; and somebody (hypothesize Milwaukee) claimed; no deal completed.
Q's:
1. How long does it take to place a guy on waivers placement-claim/not-claim-trade-or-not process?
2. Are there limits on how often a guy can be placed, and then replaced on waviers?
2. For example, could the reds waive Aug 1; repeat on Aug 5; repeat on Aug 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc.? Or could they do it every day, or once a week, or what?
4. Or is there some limit where you can't place a guy on waivers more than once or twice a season?
5. Or, you can't re-waive a guy for at least two weeks, or something?
As I read ArizonaPhil's site:
The current waiver period is August 1 through November. 10. Clubs have about 48 hours to make a claim against a waived person, at which time the claim is awarded to the team in the league with the worst record. The team waiving the player has 48 and one half hours to decide to work out a trade with the claiming team or to withdraw the waiver. If it is withdrawn he can not be waived again by that team for 30 days.
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Craig, I believe you can still get someone off waivers in September, but past the Aug 31 deadline, there are a lot of hoops and conditions to get someone on your post season roster. It's almost impossible.
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....If it is withdrawn he can not be waived again by that team for 30 days.
Perfect! That's the info I wanted. So, that's a pretty limited opportunity.
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St Louis is up against Bailey tonight so Cubs will need to win to keep their lead.
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Feinsand says the Cubs are likely to sign Jaime Garcia.
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Minor league deal for Garcia.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 2m2 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed OF Jason Heyward on the 10-day DL with right hamstring tightness and recalled RHP Dillon Maples from @IowaCubs.
The Cubs were waiting to see if tonight's game would be rained out before making this decision.
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Bryant and Russell back tomorrow. Obviously the Cubs have plenty of lineup options from the right side, but without Heyward they look pretty weak from the left - Almora starting tonight is evidence of that. May see more of Russell at SS, Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF.
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Was the bullpen so short that they needed to DL Heyward the day before the rosters expand? Seems weird to lock him in to missing 10 games just so they can have a 9th reliever for a day.
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As of tonight, the top 3 records in the NL are all in the Central division.
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The #Cubs today announced the following roster moves:
INFs Kris Bryant & Addison Russell activated from 10-day DL
RHP James Norwood recalled from @IowaCubs
OF Terrance Gore and C Taylor Davis selected from Triple-A
RHP Luke Farrell & LHP Rob Zastryzny designated for assignment https://t.co/oIlJS7EKY0
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I have to imagine quite a few more pitchers are coming.
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You must not be aware how barren Iowa is.
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At some point I suspect Smyly will get the call.
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Was the bullpen so short that they needed to DL Heyward the day before the rosters expand? Seems weird to lock him in to missing 10 games just so they can have a 9th reliever for a day.
Is it possible that they put him on the DL because he was, you know, injured?
Is it possible the move was a result of believing he needed to be out for ten days and that it had nothing to do with roster gamesmanship?
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If the balloting were held today, how strong would Baez' case for MVP be?
Here are the WAR figures for all position and and then for all players, position players and pitchers, for the NL before today's game, and today's HR:
WAR Position Players
1. Cain • MIL 5.9
2. Carpenter • STL 5.5
3. Baez • CHC 5.4
4. Freeman • ATL 5.2
5. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.1
6. Yelich • MIL 5.0
7. Arenado • COL 5.0
8. Suarez • CIN 4.3
9. Story • COL 4.3
10. Bader • STL 4.0
Wins Above Replacement--all
1. Nola • PHI 9.0
2. Scherzer • WSN 8.8
3. deGrom • NYM 8.1
4. Freeland • COL 6.6
5. Cain • MIL 5.9
6. Carpenter • STL 5.5
7. Baez • CHC 5.4
8. Freeman • ATL 5.2
9. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.1
10. Yelich • MIL
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Jon Morosi
Verified account
@jonmorosi
18 mins18 minutes ago
More
Javier Baez (@javy23baez) is the first player in @MLB history to have a 30 HR/100 RBI season while playing 30+ games at both second base *and* shortstop. @MLBNetwork @Cubs
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 37s37 seconds ago
The #Cubs today activated RHP Tyler Chatwood and LHP Brian Duensing off of the 10-day DL.
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Watching the 3 HRs we hit yesterday...Nola made mistakes to Rizzo and Baez (his with 2 strikes), but it sure appeared he threw his 94 exactly where he wanted vs Murphy!
I still can't believe Murphy was able to square up that eye-level (or higher) FB! Man, what a hitter that guys is!! Rizzo and Baez aren't bad either.
And Murphy's HR was the key one: Nola was REALLY cruising at the top of his game before the Murphy bomb!
Shows how imperfect WAR is that Cain is the leader and Yelich is well below Cain in WAR. That seems rather ridiculous to me!
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Cubs lefty Drew Smyly (tommy john) threw 23 pitches in a sim game today and says he thinks he's ready to return to the big leagues though he and the front office have to discuss his next step. Joe Maddon has indicated in recent days he's curious to see what Smyly can give them down the stretch.
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41030517-4
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Smyly is going to have to be added to the 40 over the winter anyway. If he's pain-free, don't see a lot of downside in adding him now and seeing what he can give you.
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Sounds like Morrow isn’t coming back. Not unexpected but that would be a real blow.
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Most of Morrow's seasons have been injury-plagued, so it's not really a surprise.
Strop has been really good as closer, Cishek and Wilson have experience doing it, and I have no doubt that the current version of Chavez would be fine in that role too. It's a blow, but the Cubs have depth.
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ABE
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I'm less worried about the closing than what this does to the 7th and 8th innings. I mean, I admit I don't really trust Strop but to give him his due, he's been great. But with Morrow this could have been a real shutdown bullpen (which we need, given our un-dominant rotation).
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Morrow is going to try throwing off the mound Sunday but things still sound pretty bleak to me.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-are-a-dynasty/c-293649802
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka 8h8 hours ago
David Bote in 21 plate appearances this season in 9th inning or later:
.421/.476/1.053, 3 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI
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https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-are-a-dynasty/c-293649802
That's a really good article. Thanks for sharing.
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Happ is making some adjustments that will hopefully yield positive results: https://theathletic.com/509965/2018/09/07/a-slight-tweak-has-some-believing-ian-happ-is-in-for-a-big-september-hes-on-the-cusp-of-getting-red-hot/
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It would be great if it works. Happ certainly seems to have underperformed his talents for most of the season. Danny Murphy showed in 2015 how much it can help a team when a player gets really hot in the playoffs. Cespedes did the same thing for the Mets.
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Happ is making some adjustments that will hopefully yield positive results: https://theathletic.com/509965/2018/09/07/a-slight-tweak-has-some-believing-ian-happ-is-in-for-a-big-september-hes-on-the-cusp-of-getting-red-hot/
Thanks, Playtwo. Sharma is terrific and this is a fascinating piece. Baseball sure has changed with the insertion of a more scientific and analytic approach. Guys who embrace that can seemingly benefit a lot.
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I'd love to see Happ take a big step forward.
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Sharma also has a piece suggesting Wilson could be the closer in the postseason. I’m sure that will go over like a lead balloon around here.
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I think I read that Wilson leads the league in % runners stranded. It certainly seems that he's ready to take on higher leverage situations.
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Many relievers tend to have good years and bad years. He had a good year in Detroit and functioned well as a closer. It seems that Wilson is having a good year this year, and I would have no problem using him as a closer if needed.
However, Strop is also having a good year, and is functioning very well as the closer. I see no reason to give the closer job to Wilson, unless Strop needs a rest now and then, or if the opposing team has several good left handed hitters coming up in the ninth.
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I would like to see Edwards as closer. It would be the shocker move that other teams wouldn't be ready for.
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Wilson should be pitching the highest leverage situations against LHH in the postseason. Throwing him in the closer's role then asking Strop, Cishek, or Chavez to get the biggest outs against LHH seems less than ideal.
But it would fit with Joe's historic lack of confidence in Strop. He's been consistently good since the day he joined the Cubs, but Joe has always seemed to look for reasons not to trust him.
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Joe had no confidence in Rondon either which, I think, finally resulted in Rondon losing his confidence.
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Strop is our closer.
Edwards,Wilson,Cishek,Kintzler,and Chavez are our setup men.
That's not too bad.
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But it would fit with Joe's historic lack of confidence in Strop. He's been consistently good since the day he joined the Cubs...
Except for the stretches when he's been really, really bad.
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Strop has never pitched a season with the Cubs where he had an ERA higher than 2.91. I think the stretches where he has been really, really bad are less common than you think.
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Strop has never pitched a season with the Cubs where he had an ERA higher than 2.91. I think the stretches where he has been really, really bad are less common than you think.
Look at last year as an example - he was literally good-awful in alternating months all season. And he's tended to be bad late in the season, though in 2016 he obviously had an injury he could blame that on.
Strop has been good as the closer this year, no argument. But the guy has a history, plain and simple, of something going off the rails, especially in high-pressure situations. Of getting into phases where he refuses to throw a fastball. Of losing command altogether. They don't happen with tremendous regularity but they aren't unicorn moments, either. He's a good pitcher, and he may even be our best option for closer right now. But I wouldn't stop considering other options, that's for sure.
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I am sure that the Cubs management is constantly considering other options. If Strop falters in September, or if Maddon loses faith in him, they will exercise one of those options.
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Cubs announce Smyly will not be an option this year. Shocked there was even the idea he could be.
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Expect the same announcement on Morrow this week.
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There's a chance Morrow could be back as soon as this weekend: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/11/brandon-morrows-got-another-bullpen-session-scheduled-could-return-this-weekend/
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Good news from Nationals beat writer for MLB.com:
Jamal Collier @JamalCollier
As of now, the Nats are planning to start Joe Ross on Thursday against the Cubs
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With the current weather forecast, a lot of teams are going to be rescheduling or not playing a bunch of games.
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If the Cubs get rained out of Washington then only 3 of their remaining games this season are outside of Chicago. After Milwaukee leaves town the Cubs have the last place Reds this weekend, then travel to Arizona for three. Then a day off before returning to play against the White Sox and home against Pittsburgh and St Louis. If they lose this division to Milwaukee then they deserve to. The Brewers are as hot as a firecracker right now. That is hard to sustain over a 3 week period. Even against subpar competition. The Cubs are up 1 in the division but up two in the loss column. If they can take just 1 of the remaining two then get healthy against the Reds they are still in the driver's seat.
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The Cubs are up 1 in the division but up two in the loss column. If they can take just 1 of the remaining two then get healthy against the Reds they are still in the driver's seat.
The Cubs have two extra games to play. Being up in the loss column is helpful to the team with more games played. The Cubs have to win at least one of their extra games to end up a game ahead. Two losses there means a tie.
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There's a chance Morrow could be back as soon as this weekend: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/11/brandon-morrows-got-another-bullpen-session-scheduled-could-return-this-weekend/
Longshot he's any help. Long, long shot.
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Negative Nancy.
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A state of emergency was just declared in DC ahead of the hurricane. In related news, the Cubs are still scheduled to fly to DC tonight and play tomorrow. Very smart.
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I think most pilots have the right to say, "Nope. Not taking my craft into that."
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State of Emergency declaration only means funding can be disbursed in advance right?
But likely to be rainy and windy anyway - certainly not good baseball weather
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Davish update
https://twitter.com/kelly_crull/status/1039989417472126976
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Wait, wasn’t he faking?
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That's really encouraging. I'd been kinda assuming that he'd need TJ or something major, and would spend all of next season doing rehab kind of like Smiley has this year. The concept that DArvish might be "completely healthy" in spring sounds good.
I wonder if whatever was wrong with him impacted his pitching before he went DL? He didn't seem to have any command of any of his pitches, not even his fastball. I suppose it's hypothetically possible that if his arm wasn't extending correctly, or was hurting and thus causing him to do weird stuff to moderate the discomfort, maybe that might optimistically be remediated next season?
Not likely, I assume he's just wild at this stage of his career. But would be fun if he could throw strikes more consistently....
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I think it’s very likely, actually. His elbow was probably not quite right from the beginning of the year but because he had ligsmet issues in the past and it didn’t feel the same, he tried to pitch through it.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 21m21 minutes ago
The Cubs are in discussions with the City of Chicago to move the starting time of Friday's game against the Reds at Wrigley Field from 1:20 p.m. to 7:05 p.m.
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Supposedly Maddon isn't taking the whole team to DC for today's game. The other starters, Schwarber with his bad back, and the other unavailable relievers are staying behind. I like this idea. Might as well give some of the team a much needed day off.
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Cannot believe MLB is forcing the Cubs to play the game today. Absolutely inexcusable, horrible, atrocious handling of the situation. No days off in a month. Fly into a hurricane. Complete and total garbage. Utter bullshit.
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40 games in 42 days. That seems like too much. These guys are not robots. I think they’ll hang on but it’s hard to see them at their best in the playoffs.
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Supposedly Maddon isn't taking the whole team to DC for today's game. The other starters, Schwarber with his bad back, and the other unavailable relievers are staying behind. I like this idea. Might as well give some of the team a much needed day off.
I also love Tony's gimmick of flying in game uniform. Anything to loosen things up a bit.
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I also love Tony's gimmick of flying in game uniform. Anything to loosen things up a bit.
Rizzo just dove for a ball and the front of his uni is now covered with dirt.
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Just left an event with Athletic writers including Gammons, Rosenthal, Sharma and Mooney. Will try to remember and recount some things from it.
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Losing Strop for 2+ weeks is tough. If there is a plus side, he has already thrown almost as many innings as he did last year and shutting him down for a couple of weeks isn't the worst thing assuming that the pen can hold up without him (and assuming that Strop is healthy going into the postseason). There is no reason to panic from my perspective.
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Yeah, the last time we brought Strop back for the postseason from an injury he worked out great.
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Gammons and Rosenthal both are fans of Chase Hutley. Gammons told a story about the time that Raul Ibanez was about to face Aroldis Chapman and told Hutley that there was no way he could do anything against him. Utley told him he should take a couple of strikes, then move up right over the plate. He said Chapman would take offense and throw inside, and Utley should let it hit him. Ibanez said something to the effect of "but he's throwing 105 miles an hour." Utley said, "yeah, but you'll be on first base and could be the winning run."
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Someone asked about the prospects for a strike at the end of this contract. Both said they think it is extremely doubtful because of the declining influence of the union, the increased influence of agents, and the changing perspectives/attitudes of the players.
They also both bemoaned the lack of action during games resulting from the dominance of HRs and strikeouts.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24665452/anthony-rizzo-chicago-cubs-wears-uniform-overnight-flight-joke-makeup-game-vs-washington-nationals
What I noted was the legroom provided the players. There is none. Those seats are adjustable. Why wouldn't the team plane or the charter, move the seats to give the guys more legroom? Just wonderin'.
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With the Baez HR, the Cubs have increased their lead on San Diego for 11th in the NL in HR's, and they have moved up to 22nd in MLB, with a comfy lead over the 23rd-place Twins.
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At the Athletic event, when asked who he thinks Joe will use as a closer with Strop injured, Sharma said he expects Wilson is most likely to be the guy.
Sharma said he believes that Darvish's injury was the reason he pitched so poorly early in the season, and he thinks he'll be fine next year, though Sharma thinks it remains to be seen what kind of October pitcher he will be.
In spite of the feast or famine offense and the absence of a closer, he said not to give up on the Cubs, and specifically said that people underestimate just how valuable Bryant could be now that he's back, if he breaks out.
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It wont surprise me a bit if we go back to the World Series.
Hell even if Milwaukee does catch us we'll still be in good shape for the wild card.
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I asked Sharma about Quintana, specifically how he can be effective when he is so predictable in throwing his 91-93 mph fastball. He was pretty upbeat about Quintana. He said that Quintana's location and movement are the keys to his success and that being off-balance in his windup is what had caused him problems earlier in the season. . He said a simple change in Quintana pointing his foot downward as he lifts his front leg has made an important overall difference maintaining his balance, and that's why he's been so much better recently.
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Cubs have a 5.5 game lead over Dodgers and 8.5 over Arizona for the last wildcard spot, if I'm tracking the standings correctly, with 16 games left.
Cardinals have a brutal schedule left, with Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, and Cubs left, and only Giants as a lesser opponent.
Dodgers have Cardinals, Rockies, and Arizona left. So fair chance that even if they were to get super-hot and put pressure on the Cubs, they might be pushing the Cardinals or Rockies back in the process.
Holding off the Brewers for the division is one thing; just getting in is another.
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Sim game for Morrow tommorow. Big time heave and hope on that one.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 15m15 minutes ago
#Cubs Maddon says Edwards will be key. "We cannot win without him. We cannot advance in the tournament without him pitching as well as he possibly can. You've got to keep putting him out there, you've got to rebuild his confidence"
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Well, without Strop that's probably true. Maddon bumbled his way into being right.
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Gotta get Edwards going.
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Davish update
https://twitter.com/kelly_crull/status/1039989417472126976
The reactions posted to the tweet are a bit sad.
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Anyone know of an update on Schwarber? When he will be available to play again?
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Anyone know of an update on Schwarber? When he will be available to play again?
On the radio broadcast, they said he is swinging but still feels stiffness / pain bending down to field. Didn't mention when he will return.
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They expect him to play this season.
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Thanks guys re Schwarber...man, we need him to get hot at the plate if/when he returns!
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Schwarber and Gore just hit against Morrow in his one inning sym game. Nothing said about how any of them did.
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They werent allowed to swing.
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Morrow might be available to pitch in Arizona: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/15/brandon-morrows-simulated-game-went-well-could-return-next-series/
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Still sounds dodgy, but whatever we get I'll take.
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Zobrist commuting to work (no helmet, riding on sidewalk):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnOkjMdVsAADxak.jpg:large)
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Kyle Schwarber won't be with the Cubs in Arizona
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/17/kyle-schwarber-wont-travel-to-arizona-with-the-cubs/
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
I would have said for his glove, but I don't see it in there.
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
I guess he is more secure in his manhood than some people. 😉
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I guess he is more secure in his manhood than some people. 😉
Translation: Ron has a basket on his bike.
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Ron... Dude...
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 15m15 minutes ago
Maddon thinks everyone should turn the page on Contreras, says Contreras apologized and knows what he did wrong.
He knows what he did wrong? How long did it take for him to figure that out?
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 18m18 minutes ago
Joe Maddon went the other way today re Willson Contreras not running out of the box on Sunday. Says too much piling on: “He apologized. It’s over.”
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Did you expect Maddon to give him a belt whipping?
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He does have a point. What, exactly, is anybody supposed to do about this now? Maddon criticized Contreras and Contreras apologized (whether he meant it or not). It's kind of pointless to keep talking about it, isn't it?
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Morrow has been shut down for the season.
I'm not going to be surprised if there's a big shake-up in the Cubs medical staff this offseason. The three biggest injury situations this year--Bryant, Darvish, and Morrow--all seem to have been handled in a less than ideal way.
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Some talk about Webster getting called up.
The Cubs use Northwestern’s medical staff, I’m not sure if they can get better Chicago based doctors.
The head trainer has been around since 2012, so I guess he could be in some hot water.
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Not a surprise with Morrow, but still - that sucks. Once more we go into the postseason with a bullpen that's a huge question mark.
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Jesse Rogers
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
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Theo identified a June 2 game v Mets that set Morrow back. He wasn’t sched to pitch but game went 14 innings. Said next year he told Morrow that when he’s down for the day he’s going to tell him to come to the park without his spikes. Was not kidding.
That could be interpreted in a couple of different ways...
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FWIW, Bleacher Nation had an article this morning saying that Strop was hoping to get back for the last two games of the season so he can tune up for the playoffs. That would be a lift if that happened and he looked good.
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A pitcher coming back too soon from a hammy problem? Rick Sutcliffe on line 2.
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The National league bullpens outside of the Brewers are all question marks and the Brewers only really have Hader and Jeffers.
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Considering we're probably going to have to beat the Brewers in the NLDS that's not all that encouraging.
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I'm still hopeful that it'll be the Rockies in the NLDS (assuming the Cubs win the division). The Wild Card game is basically a coin flip--even the Brewers won't be more than a 60% favorite to win the game.
If the Cubs do win the division and remain one of the top two seeds for the NLDS, they won't leave Chicago for about 15 days after they get home early tomorrow morning. That will be helpful for them.
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May as well roll the dice on Webster at this point. He might get multiple opportunities to show his stuff if we clinch early, and there's a desperate need for another arm with plus stuff down there. Maples clearly isn't going to be a postseason option with his laughable command.
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May as well roll the dice on Webster at this point. He might get multiple opportunities to show his stuff if we clinch early, and there's a desperate need for another arm with plus stuff down there. Maples clearly isn't going to be a postseason option with his laughable command.
So you're writing off Chatwood?
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The Cubs have added Webster and put Morrow on the 60 day DL.
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So you're writing off Chatwood?
Since I didn’t see purple I’ll assume that’s a serious question. For this year, obviously. After that, no.
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I don't always used purple.
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The basket on Zobrist's bike, I know 'cause I have one, is for a case of beer on the ride home. It's a perfect fit.
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Jon Morosi
Verified account
@jonmorosi
8h8 hours ago
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Javier Baez is the first player in @MLB history to hit more than 30 home runs during a season in which he’s played at least 20 games at second base, third base and shortstop. A point to consider in the NL MVP discussion . . . @MLBNetwork @Cubs
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Russell's ex-wife tells her story (linked from her Instagram account according to Bleacher Nation):
https://lifewithmelis310373032.wordpress.com/
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If true, cut his ass yesterday.
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Although the baseball implications feel so secondary in a moment like this, I understand that will be a natural question. I would be very surprised if Russell is with the team this weekend when they play the White Sox, and I would not be surprised if discipline comes swiftly from the Cubs and/or MLB. There will be a renewed investigation, undoubtedly, and I think even if Melisa chooses not to be involved – which is her right – there will probably be punishment forthcoming.
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One thing that concerns me is that assuming this is all or mostly true, the Cubs having basically done nothing when the initial allegation was raised reflects very badly on them. It's hard to believe they had no inkling this was going on if there was an actual investigation (which the Cubs should have insisted upon whether MLB did one or not). Just because MLB is the callow, gutless organization we know them to be doesn't mean the Cubs couldn't have taken disciplinary action on their own.
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They did investigate last year and his ex-wife apparently did not want to cooperate. if that’s true, it would be tough for them to really do anything based on second hand allegations and hearsay. It’s a different situation now that she’s talking.
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Well, in practical terms I think David Bote is your backup SS for the postseason.
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As I have mentioned several times over the last year.....the Cubs have been trying to trade Russell for quite some time due to character concerns.
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I'm missing something. I don't see Russell's name in there anywhere. Did something get cut off? Did I miss it?
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There's 3 sides to every story.
Her side,his side,and the truth.
Lets not forget how valuable his glove is when we read these attention seeking stories from a gold digger.
Im sorry Addison has to deal with such headaches.
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As if on cue.
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https://youtu.be/6vwNcNOTVzY
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Nice “Christian” response, Dusty.
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I didnt say anything unchristian.
All I said was dont be so quick to rush to judgement over a woman has has been quick to seek attention and throw dirt on Addison in the past.
Didnt he just get another chick pregnant?
How much do you think the ex just loves that?
We must have a very sheltered crew here to not understand the motives and ways of a woman scorned.
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I couldn't disagree more with Dusty. Addison is at fault here, obviously needs counseling and more importantly a life change. Whether the Cubs want to give him that chance is up to them. But as a father of 8 daughters my heart breaks for this girl. She deserves better and I'm glad she appears to have found it.
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Back to being unchristian...
Proverbs 27:15 - A continual dropping in a very rainy day and a contentious woman are alike.
Proverbs 21:9 - [It is] better to dwell in a corner of the housetop, than with a brawling woman in a wide house.
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I didnt say anything unchristian.
Yeah...when a woman makes a credible accusation of domestic violence, the moral thing to do is to immediately call her a liar and a gold digger.
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Kelly Crull @Kelly_Crull
As first bus walked in with #Cubs players, there was no Addison Russell & team personnel said they “do not expect him to be here.”
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He has put on a break when the allegations happened last year. If the wife will talk to MLB I would expect a suspension to follow quiclky.
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Per Twitter, Theo is talking to the team about the Russell situation at 12:50 local time, then talking to the media after that.
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SMH...
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Melissa must be a Brewers fan.
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In reading the blog, did I miss allegations of actual physical abuse? I see allegations that he threatened physical abuse but not actual abuse.
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She definitely hinted at physical abuse a few times, though she didn't say specifically what happened.
The first time I was physically mistreated by my spouse, I was in shock. I couldn’t wrap my head around what just happened…Why did he get so angry? What did I do for him to want to put his hands on me?
About a month after leaving, I returned for a visit so my son could see his father, also in hopes that maybe, just maybe I’d see a change in my husband. But, as I expected our visit was a nightmare, I swore to myself it would be the last time he’d lay his hands on me & it would be that last time I’d let my son be a witness to it.
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6 months from now when we see she's now dating Lorenzo Cain I want apologies from all of you.
Im done with the subject now.
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Russell put on administrative leave by MLB.
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I bet he's played his last game as a Cub.
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6 months from now when we see she's now dating Lorenzo Cain I want apologies from all of you.
Im done with the subject now.
The depth of your stupidity is astonishing.
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I was actually wondering how the Cubs were going to get Murphy and or Zobrist out there for the playoffs. I guess this way Baez is at SS, Bryant at 3B, and Murphy or Zobrist at 2B or RF for Zobrist.
I was hoping they were going to trade Russell for Machado earlier in the season and now I REALLY wished they had.
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I wonder if this might make Murphy more attractive as a free agent? The other option would be Harper with Zobrist/Happ at 2B or Machado for SS and Baez to 2B.
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I’ve typed like 10 different replies to Jiggy and then deleted before posting. Wtf is wrong with people?
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I wonder if this might make Murphy more attractive as a free agent? The other option would be Harper with Zobrist/Happ at 2B or Machado for SS and Baez to 2B.
Murphy needs to go to a team that can use him at 1B or DH. He's done as a second baseman after this year, I think.
The Cubs probably do need to do something in the middle infield this offseason now, though. Outside of Machado, the free agent market doesn't look good unless you expect a Brian Dozier rebound or you buy into DJ LeMahieu outside of Coors.
If they don't go after Machado, who is going to be available in trades? The Royals should deal Whit Merrifield and he seems like a good fit, but they don't seem to be willing to commit to a full rebuild. The Rangers may be tearing down, so I guess I could be convinced that Elvis Andrus wouldn't be terrible if his early season wrist injury caused his down year. And Zack Cozart for Tyler Chatwood would be salary neutral trade of two disappointing free agents who might benefit from a fresh start. Anyone else?
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Im guilty of two things here.
1-I dont care one bit what type of person these players are off the field and fully believe if we personally knew a lot of them we'd view them very differently. All I care about is their on field performance.
2-Its his side against hers and none of us know the real truth. If you believe Addison its because you want to and if you dont its because you want to.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
If he truly did beat his wife then send him down the road.
But...if he didnt then Kanye might have a point.
I need more than her sob story to believe her.
My first child's mother claims I hit her in the past and I never touched her.
She never claimed that until I got married.
Addison just got another girl pregnant and now Melissa wants to talk.
Come on man.
I know Im not the only man here who sees what's going on.
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I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
You immediately called an alleged victim of domestic abuse a liar and a gold digger who is just seeking attention. You are rushing to judgment faster than anyone here.
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And Zack Cozart for Tyler Chatwood would be salary neutral trade of two disappointing free agents who might benefit from a fresh start. Anyone else?
Cozart had shoulder surgery and that always scares me. Conforto had a nice rebound this year coming off on shoulder surgery, so it might be a nice idea.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
If he truly did beat his wife then send him down the road.
Stick with this, everything else is just a bad. Really bad, horrible, and stupid.
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Im guilty of two things here.
1-I dont care one bit what type of person these players are off the field and fully believe if we personally knew a lot of them we'd view them very differently. All I care about is their on field performance.
There is NOTHING about this perspective that is Christ-like, aka, Christian.
2-Its his side against hers and none of us know the real truth. If you believe Addison its because you want to and if you dont its because you want to.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
Your posts have been full of nothing but AWFUL judgement towards Addison’s ex wife. Do you seriously not see that? You’re not suggesting that people avoid rushing to judgement. You’re demonizing the accuser, heaping judgement upon judgement.
I know Im not the only man here who sees what's going on.
Yes, thank god for the perspective of patriarchal, toxic masculinity that is endemic to our culture.
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With guys like Dusty around, it’s hard to imagine why women are so reluctant to come forward when they are victims of abuse. I look forward to his thoughtful comments about the Kavanaugh situation. I’m sure he’ll continue to be a great representative of the Christian faith.
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Stick with the race-baiting, Dusty - that's your comfort zone.
As for Murphy as a FA, no way I'd touch that. His defense anywhere but 1B is already terrible, and we have a 1B.
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Can we keep the ridiculous political partaking in the political thread?
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No
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So you're a board moderator too? How do you get the time away from combing through all my posts?
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In reading the blog, did I miss allegations of actual physical abuse? I see allegations that he threatened physical abuse but not actual abuse.
In the current climate, why is actual abuse even needed? Sh!t, why are actual allegations even needed?
What we find at https://lifewithmelis310373032.wordpress.com/ is far less about what she even claims Russell did than it is about how she feels and felt.
It is a very sad state of affairs if Russell gets sanctioned not for what he did, or even for what someone alleges he did, but instead based on how someone feels, because that is all that is really set out in her blog.
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The depth of your stupidity is astonishing.
You don't come around here much... do ya?
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https://www.cubshq.com/amp/update/Russells-girlfriend-He-doesnt-need-career-destroyed-by-bitter-ex-wife-25584?__twitter_impression=true
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Keep digging.
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The way some here have already made up your mind on Russell is unreal.
The consensus all over the net is a lot closer to 50/50.
This girl has not one time called the police or anything and refused to cooperate with MLB last year when she conveniently made these claims at the same time and its nothing but his word against hers and we dont know either one of them from Adam and the crew here already has found Addison guilty.
I guess no one here has ever been falsely accused.
We must have a large crew of home schooled virgins.
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I suspect you’ve never been falsely accused either.
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Ive got a criminal record as clean as slate.
I got accused of stealing some video games and selling them when I was much younger but I was proven innocent and the charges were dropped.
Never probation or found guilty of anything in my life.
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The way some here have already made up your mind on Russell is unreal.
Aside from making her feel bad, what exactly is it that his wife says Russell did?
Assuming EVERYTHING she says is completely accurate, just what is it he did to her?
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Ive got a criminal record as clean as slate.
I got accused of stealing some video games and selling them when I was much younger but I was proven innocent and the charges were dropped.
Never probation or found guilty of anything in my life.
Dismissed charges are not close to the same as a "clean slate."
You probably should look at having the entire record of the case you mentioned expunged. It's a simple process. Stop by the clerk's office for the court that handled the case, tell them you want it expunged, and you can probably do it yourself. When I was practicing, it was so simple I only charged $125 bucks for it.... and felt guilty about getting that much.
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When I was about 18 or 19 I bought about 50 playstation games for about 30 bucks.
I took them straight to a gamestop and sold them for about 300.
A few days later the cops show up at my house to arrest me because they were stolen.
I bond out of jail right on the spot and on the day of my court date I explain to the sheriff what happened and he says if I can pass a polygraph he'll drop the charges.
I did and never even had to go in front of a judge.
That's the worst thing Ive ever done.
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When I was about 18 or 19 I bought about 50 playstation games for about 30 bucks.
I took them straight to a gamestop and sold them for about 300.
A few days later the cops show up at my house to arrest me because they were stolen.
I bond out of jail right on the spot and on the day of my court date I explain to the sheriff what happened and he says if I can pass a polygraph he'll drop the charges.
I did and never even had to go in front of a judge.
That's the worst thing Ive ever done.
Not going in front of a judge does not change things. From what you have described, you were charged. The public record of that charge remains a public record. Expungement literally eliminates the record. Tennessee is one of only a handful of states to allow this.
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See Jes.
You're not always a SOB and I knew you'd agree with me regarding Addison Russell.
Why cant you always be like this?
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Aside from making her feel bad, what exactly is it that his wife says Russell did?
Assuming EVERYTHING she says is completely accurate, just what is it he did to her?
Clean slate? LOL
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Carrie Muskat does an interesting interview with Terrance Gore plus Bryant and Strop updates
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/terrance-gore-impressing-cubs-with-speed/c-295722552
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If Strop could be good to go by playoffs, that would be quite helpful. If Cubs can hold off the Brewers, the won't open until next Thursday. So if Strop is currently "hoping" to pitch this week, maybe actually being ready to to so by next Thursday isn't totally unrealistic?
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See Jes.
You're not always a SOB and I knew you'd agree with me regarding Addison Russell.
Why cant you always be like this?
~sigh~
Two points --
1) Based on actually reading your comments, and knowing quite well both my position regarding Russell and everything I have written here regarding Russell (which doesn't encompass my entire position on him), I strongly suspect that our agreement on Russell is far less than you seem to think. For instance I suspect that we both agree that Russell is a male, has played SS for the Chicago Cubs, and that his ex-wife or estranged wife (or whatever she is) is quite upset with him, and that while she has aggressively trashed him and his reputation, she so far has not set out in any meaningfully substantive form what if anything she says he physically did to her.
2) In class this morning I was explaining to my 8th grade Special Education kids how backhanded compliments are not only generally less than sincere, but how they generally end up making the person extending the "compliment" look bad, well, actually looking a bit disgusting. The 8th grade Special Education kids all got it.
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Playoff Q: If the Cubs hold on to the best record in the league, will we still automatically play the wildcard team? Even if it turned out to be the Brewers and they had maybe the 2nd best record in the league?
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Yes. Cubs were the wild card in 2015 and faced the Cardinals in the NLDS.
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Would much rather pay the Braves than the Brewers.
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I don't think either team is susceptible to bribes.
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Rosenthal has a new piece at The Athletic re: the Addison Russell situation...
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Bryant’s X-ray is negative, but he will be out tomorrow.
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What does it say Dave?
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Possible Scenario?
Cubs and Brewers tie for the division with the best record in Baseball.
Monday playoff game in Chicago for division Cubs lose.
Wild Card game in Chicago the Cubs could win.
Brewers lose first round.
Cubs have to play all remaining playoff series' without home field even though they have the best record in the league.
I think it is time for MLB to reevaluate the home field thing.
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@TonyAndracki23
Cole Hamels has as many homers this month as Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, David Bote, Tommy La Stella, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr., Willson Contreras and Addison Russell COMBINED.
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Possible Scenario?
Cubs and Brewers tie for the division with the best record in Baseball.
Monday playoff game in Chicago for division Cubs lose.
Wild Card game in Chicago the Cubs could win.
Brewers lose first round.
Cubs have to play all remaining playoff series' without home field even though they have the best record in the league.
I think it is time for MLB to reevaluate the home field thing.
I think it is time for the Cubs to reevaluate their hitting approach. Maybe launching a few homers here and there isn't the worse thing.
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I'm hoping the Cubs will go 4-1 in their remaining games. The Brewers would have to sweep to get into a 1 game playoff with us to determine the Division champ with the loser being a wildcard team. Let's start it off with a win tonight.
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Jayson Stark agrees with me...Javy for MVP...
https://theathletic.com/550102/2018/09/26/stark-mvp-lvp-cy-young-cy-yuk-its-time-to-hand-out-end-of-season-awards/
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Any word or gossip on Strop's comeback?
*Not sure if he'll be able to come back and be good, even if he does come back. Kinda like Bryant, coming back at 50% doesn't necessarily help all that much.
*But *IF* Strop was able to come back and pitch as well as he did through the year, and now with his arm strong and well rested, that would be very helpful.
Would be kind of especially dramatic if he showed up this weekend and helped win a game.
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That was the talk on the telecast last night...he might make an appearance this weekend.
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That would be a mistake.
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I disagree. This is the time to get a handle on his likely effectiveness for the postseason, if the appropriate low leverage situation presents itself.
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Thanks, Dave! That's cool that he's close enough to even be under consideration.
It would be fun if the Cubs had some kind of offensive explosion and had a 4-1 lead or something in a game. Bring Strop into the 7th inning or 8th, with more than just Kintzler and Garcia and Maples left in reserve. If he's fine and sharp, awesome. If he's like Wild-Maples or Wild-Edwards or Justin Grimm, then have somebody else in reserve.
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Remember when Theo and Hoyer decided that Justin Grimm was a better option than Hector Rondon? The non-success of the Chatwood, Yu, and Morrow signings gets more attention. But the Rondon decision might have been the most dumb and grim mistake of them all.
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Hated that decision...then and now...
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I think the Rondon decision was influenced by Joe's lack of trust in Rondon.
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I think Joe's lack of trust in Rondon was influenced by a few trips to Binny's Beverage Depot...
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Double influence?
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I don't think they preferred Grimm to Rondon. They just thought Grimm was cheap enough that it was worth tendering a contract to him to see if he could suddenly show something in Spring Training.
Rondon stayed healthy this year, that's the key for him. He'd been battling injuries for a season and a half, and had almost retired earlier in his career (just before the Cubs picked him up) because of injury problems. I'm sure they concluded his health was just too much of a question to pay him $6 million this year.
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Fangraphs has the Cubs with a 77.7% chance to win the division. That seems high, and if you take every remaining game as a coin flip, the Cubs have a 42/64 chance to win the division outright, a 15/64 chance of finishing tied (so a 7.5/64 chance of winning a one-game playoff), and a 7/64 chance of ending up behind Milwaukee without a playoff. So 49.5/64, or 77.3%, of being division champions.
But we're playing a fearsome team battling for their postseason lives and out to get us, whereas the Brewers are up against a tail ender with little to play for. Fangraphs giving us better odds than pure luck would is a blog surprise -- or they think our exhausted, injury plagued team really can get it done.
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I think being up a game with three to play has a lot to do with that.
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Remember when Theo and Hoyer decided that Justin Grimm was a better option than Hector Rondon? The non-success of the Chatwood, Yu, and Morrow signings gets more attention. But the Rondon decision might have been the most dumb and grim mistake of them all.
I was also a Rondon fan. But it is unfair to look at single decisions in absence of context. They also decided to take a chance on mediocre relievers such as Chavez and De La Rosa, or a washed up starter like Hamels.
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I think it was pretty clear Maddon had no trust in Rondon and never would, and Theo acted based on that.
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There was a time that he wouldn't let Hendricks pitch the third time through the order. Sometimes the General Manager has to ignore the wishes of the manager.
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Rondon didn't earn much trust in his last year and a half as a Cub. I think it was mainly because he wasn't healthy...but he was still not very good from about the time they got Chapman.
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It's also worth noting that while Rondon has been decent this year in Houston, it's not like he's been elite or anything. If he was putting up those numbers for the Cubs the moaners would be ranting about how much he sucks.
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I disagree. This is the time to get a handle on his likely effectiveness for the postseason, if the appropriate low leverage situation presents itself.
Complete agreement with Playtwo here. Give him a bit of a test drive if possible.
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Meanwhile, the bullpen acquisitions made by Theo/Hoyer this year have been *outstanding*.
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Kintzler?
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Kintzler has been up and down, but both de la Rosa and Chavez have been amazing, and they cost us basically nothing. With the injuries to Morrow and Strop, the Cubs would be absolutely sunk without those two, Chavez especially.
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Rosario gets overlooked.
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I must have missed the "up"...
Hard to give that much credit for de la Rosa, as I'm convinced that was a total stab in the dark even Theo expected to fail. But Chavez was a shrewd move to be sure. Also, for all the stick Hickey has gotten over the regression of guys like Chatwood and Quintana, it's worth nothing that the Cubs have gotten an awful lot of mileage out of fringy bullpen guys all year long. Maybe he deserves a little credit for that?
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Rondon stats by half this year
1st: 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2nd: 5.70 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
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Rondon stats by half this year
Interesting. Fits with injuries and getting worn down, or maybe overuse. I wonder what that looks like for Cishek and Edwards. Not dissimilar, I expect.
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Edwards 2.31 ERA, Chisek 2.77
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I really thought 95 wins would win the division at the beginning of September. Never thought the Brewers would sweep the Tards in St Louis early in the week but they did. I really don’t feel like the Cubs choked even though we lost a 51/2 game lead in September. The Brewers played very well and caught some breaks to finish like they have.
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Brewers overachieved, Cubs underachieved. Been the case all year long.
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Brewers overachieved, Cubs underachieved. Been the case all year long.
I think I disagree about this, pretty strongly.
The Brewers:
1. are a really good team.
2. They were a good team last year, and it took into September for the Cubs to pull away from them last year.
3. They added an MVP guy with MVP talent who's having a fabulous year; maybe that's a career year, but I'm not sure that he's overachieving. The guy just looks like a better hitter than anybody we see hitting for the Cubs.
4. And they added Cain, who's been fabulous too.
5. Maybe you could argue that their rotation has overachieved; I wouldn't argue that.
6. But they've got a terrific, talented bullpen. No fluke there, I don't think.
Cubs:
1. I kinda feel like they've overachieved, if anything; and more than Milwaukee.
2. Watching the stuff that Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana need to work with every start, I think they are all three of them huge overachievers to do as well as they've done. To compete as well as they do with what they have to work with, fantastic!
3. Think Baez has been a max-achiever this year as well.
4. Bullpen has been remarkably good, given the personnel and the heavy usage.
5. Zobrist has been a huge achiever/overachiever this year also.
6. Contreras as a hitter, maybe he's underachieved? I'm not sure what the explanation for his decline has been.
7. Otherwise, given the health and the talents they've got, I'm not sure I see the offense having underachieved much? *Bryant's been variably hurt, and he's always been a high-K guy; the K's without HR's, he is what he is, what should we have expected?
*I know Theo and Maddon and we hoped that Russell, Happ, and Schwarber would evolve and age into better hitters. But at this point I think we should probably accept that they are pretty much .240-hitters, that's just who they are; and velocity can beat them.
8. Managerially, given what a flimsy rotation they've had, a patchwork pen, the injuries, the Darvish/Chatwood control problems, and how much they've struggled to score runs consistently, I'm not sure I can fault the manager for getting only 95 or 96 wins out of that crew! I kind of see that as having overachieved, not underachieved.
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January 25 2018 was the best day in Brewers history. They got Yelich and Cain in one day. That's 13 fWAR--they're somewhere around an 85 win team without them.
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The Brewers are very good, and better than I expected, but aren't a 95-win team, imo. They're beating their Pythagorean by five games.
I think the Cubs on paper should be good for 105+ wins. Certainly, the Darvish thing and Chatwood's demise play a big part in fewer victories. But I don't think the younger players have developed, save for Baez. Maybe you're right though, and some of us overestimated this team's potential.
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When the Brewers acquired both Yelich and Cain, a lot of people scratched their heads. I pointed this out to my son, and he commented that the way it worked out for the Brewers was absolutely best-case scenario. I think they've overachieved.
The Cubs, on the other hand--the most significant of their off-season moves worked out as poorly as could be expected: Darvish, Morrow, Chatwood--they came up snake-eyes on all of those. Then KB was a shell of himself for most of the season. So to still get 95 wins under those circumstances, while getting breakout season from only Baez with basically disappointment from Russell, Happ, Schwarber, Almora--I'm with Craig. Overachievement. I think Maddon deserves a lot of credit, most of which he won't get.
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Bryant being hurt, Rizzo's bad back at the start of the season, losing Marrow, Strop, Darvish, September from hell...
The Brewers by far got the best version of their team and the Cubs had pretty much everything go wrong.
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6. Contreras as a hitter, maybe he's underachieved? I'm not sure what the explanation for his decline has been.
Contreras was overworked early, but still was pretty much the same player he'd been in his first two years through July. I think he had some bad HR luck, but he hit a lot of doubles and triples in the first half.
Then he didn't get an All Star Break, and then still got overworked for a lot of the second half until Caratini started showing a little life in early September. Even with his reduced workload in September, he caught by far the most innings in MLB this year. It was mostly fatigue (and probably nagging injuries that come along with being the most active catcher in MLB).
I think the Cubs really need a strong backup next year. Maddon needs to have enough confidence in his backup to give Contreras two days off a week.
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Darvish, Morrow, Chatwood--they came up snake-eyes on all of those.
Darvish's year was a bummer. But Morrow was exactly what was expected--dominant when healthy, but he's been hurt almost every year of his career. What did you expect? Chatwood...they signed him solely because of his spin rate, and that was dumb. It turned out even worse than expected. But he was a ball-throwing, injury prone back end guy in Coors Field. Again, what did you expect?
disappointment from Russell, Happ, Schwarber, Almora.
They were all questionable at the end of last year, and none of them got much better. But Almora wasn't a disappointment--he may have actually exceeded expectations for a guy who had a low-.700s OPS above A ball in the minors.
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Russell was injured when is hitting fell off a cliff. It wouldn’t shock me to hear something similar with Almora.
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95 is ALWAYS a terrific season!
With what Cubs endured with the marathon road trip/extended games without a break, 95 wins is truly extraordinary, let alone with all other roadblocks Craig points out.
Who the heck knows what happens today, or tomorrow, but this year's team has EVERY reason in the world to feel incredibly proud today!
GO Cubs!
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Don’t overlook the grueling Aug/Sept schedule. Working that many days in a row is *rough* especially when you throw all the travel on top of it. I would bet dollars to donuts that if the Cubs had a more regular run they would have won outright.
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41 in 42 days for the Cubs including today.
Score just said the wind is blowing in.
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It’s very calm out right now. I suppose there is a slight breeze off the lake.
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I’m in Omaha where it is wet and cold so just going off of what other people are reporting. Buster described it as blowing right to left at 8:17.
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I was out walking the dog this morning and it’s a very pleasant day. Overcast and cool but good fall weather. Maybe the wind is blowing harder above the trees but at ground level it’s calm. A wind off the lake is pretty typical at this time of the year so balls to RF will be affected a bit. Anyway, should be fun. Looking forward to getting over there today.
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I think br is still waiting for Francisco Lindor to revert back to the .738 OPS he had in 1880 plate appearances in the minors...
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Yeah, easy to see Almora and Lindor are very similar...
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In Almora's minor league career, he had 1733 plate appearances, and a career .738 OPS.
In Lindor's minor league career, he had 1880 plate appearances and a career .738 OPS.
You're right, it's very easy to see...
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If that's all you can see, for sure.
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That's the Almora argument, anyway...
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Cubs hitting numbers:
8/1 - .267/.347/.425/.772
9/30 - .259/.334/.411/.745
last 28 - .238/.304/.348/.652
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What the freak happened to these guys?
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What the freak happened to these guys?
I suppose 41 games in 42 days (or whatever it was) may have had something to do with it.
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If the Cubs had not had to travel back to D.C. for that single make-up game, that's where they'd be today.
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Cubs hitting numbers:
8/1 - .267/.347/.425/.772
9/30 - .259/.334/.411/.745
last 28 - .238/.304/.348/.652
Those stats are even worse when you consider the boost they received from Murphy.
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With the possible exception of Jesse Chavez (two innings), all of today's relievers should be able to go on Tuesday so who gets dropped in favor of Terrance Gore?
James Norwood?
Dillon Maples?
Jose Quintana?
Alec Mills?
Allen Webster?
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Did they have any good stretches this year though? They started off slow and it was thought they would pick it up when the weather warmed up. But they didn't really. No leadoff hitter, Bryant down year/injury, unfavorable schedule, crummy hitting coach, wind blowing in most days at Wrigley throughout the summer...what else?
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Final tally: The Cubs scored 0, 1, or 2 runs 55 times in 163 games this year. For comparison, they failed to score 3 in 47 games last year and 36 games in 2016.
They scored less than 2 runs 39 times this year, compared to 28 games in 2017 and 19 in 2016.
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I'm sure glad Joe saved Edwards for tomorrow.
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I think this off season is going to be really interesting.
The Cubs need to unload Kintzler and Chatwood.
Do they bring back Hamels by picking up his option or hope to sign him for less than $20 million or let him walk?
Is Montgomery a starter what do you do with Smyly?
With the bullpen do you bring back Wilson? Sign a closer to cover for a possible Marrow injury?
Do you get in on Harper/Machado, if so which one?
What the heck do you do with Russell?
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2018 isn't over yet!
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Doesn't mean the off season still won't be interesting......
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Sure feels like it.
Even if they win the WC game, does anyone have any confidence in them beating Milwaukee? They just lost 5 of 7 to them down the stretch in crucial games.
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Will be interesting to see what the 3 days off does to Milwaukee and their hot streak. Maybe nothing, maybe cools them off a bit.
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I think this off season is going to be really interesting.
I think the front office needs to go into the offseason with the idea that they have maybe 10-12 players who will definitely play for the 2019 Cubs, and 4-5 of those are just because of contracts. In the end, they'll bring back more than just those 10-12 players...but outside of star hitters (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, maybe Contreras), big contract starters (Lester, Darvish), and 3 semi-expensive but good relievers (Strop, Morrow, Cishek), they should have really open minds on the makeup of the 2019 roster.
This team needs significant retooling. They have to add two hitters (either Harper or Machado, and a good OBP guy for the top of the lineup). A revamped bullpen and a backup catcher who Joe will actually play sometimes in the first half are necessary too.
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Who the heck knows and I could well imagine Cubs having lots of trouble with Rox terrific young LH starter tomorrow night, but I think the Cubs can do some real damage IF they can find a way to eke out a win in the WC game.
Certainly, the Cubs are tough and resilient and unlikely to beat themselves. This year's Cubs are battle tested - both in an incredible stretch without a break this year AND previous years...the kind of team that often finds a way to get through multiple series' and, dare I say it, go deep into October.
Of course, our season might well end tomorrow night, but if it doesn't, I like our chances against the Brewers and, if we get on a roll, anyone else...even with all the injuries and adversity...sometimes, that adversity can make a TEAM even stronger this time of year.
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Ben, I love your tireless optimism but win or lose tomorrow I’m pretty sure we’re toast.
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Fivethirtyeight has the Cubs at 54% to make the NLDS; Fangraphs has them at 53%. So they're a very slight favorite based on data.
Subjectively, they're not nearly that strong.
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Didn't they have us at 93% to win the Division?
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I think the front office needs to go into the offseason with the idea that they have maybe 10-12 players who will definitely play for the 2019 Cubs, and 4-5 of those are just because of contracts. In the end, they'll bring back more than just those 10-12 players...but outside of star hitters (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, maybe Contreras), big contract starters (Lester, Darvish), and 3 semi-expensive but good relievers (Strop, Morrow, Cishek), they should have really open minds on the makeup of the 2019 roster.
This team needs significant retooling. They have to add two hitters (either Harper or Machado, and a good OBP guy for the top of the lineup). A revamped bullpen and a backup catcher who Joe will actually play sometimes in the first half are necessary too.
You are going to be really disappointed this offseason if that is what you are expecting.
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On the other hand, It is probably a good thing if every GM has an open mind about their roster.
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You are going to be really disappointed this offseason if that is what you are expecting.
Don't get me wrong, I expect to be disappointed. I'm just saying what I think they should do. I have no confidence that they'd be willing to admit that maybe Schwarber and Almora aren't the future stars they think they are.
Ultimately, they'll add someone like Brian Dozier to replace Russell and then sign a couple Cishek-level relievers. They'll go into a third season with this mix of hitters and expect different results again.
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka
Most games this season with 1 or 0 runs scored:
40 Orioles
39 Cubs
37 Marlins
36 Giants
35 Mets
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka
Most games this season with 1 or 0 runs scored:
40 Orioles
39 Cubs
37 Marlins
36 Giants
35 Mets
More than the expansion-like Marlins and nearly as many as the historically bad Orioles.
Look at the rosters of all those teams and tell me that makes any sense.
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28% (11) have come in the last last month.
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There my be some merit in change for its own sake at this point. Whatever that means in the end.
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Don't get me wrong, I expect to be disappointed. I'm just saying what I think they should do. I have no confidence that they'd be willing to admit that maybe Schwarber and Almora aren't the future stars they think they are.
I don't think that either the Cubs management or most Cubs fans ever thought that Almora would turn out to be an offensive star. So far, he has been pretty much what had been expected, or even hoped for.
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It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart.
The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again,
and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings,
and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.
You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time,
to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive,
and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most,
it stops."
- A. Bartlett Giammati
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Nice.
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Hot take - Its not the hitters or the pitchers, its the coaching and a couple of bad FA signings.
Madden left the Rays with the reputation of an innovative manager who did a great job managing a young roster and keeping players fresh. Lots of folks in Tampa felt his in game management especially as related to the pitching staff was fairly mediocre at best.
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I think the long stretch of games took more of a toll on this team than any single factor. The injuries to Bryant, Darvish and Morrow did the same. Three long postseason runs could also have been a factor. Don't forget the human factor. The Addison Russell news and suspension certainly didn't help. But that's all of the excuses I can come up with. Every team has injuries. Every team has some personal stuff they deal with. Every team has some tough road trips and long stretches, (although nothing quite like what the Cubs went through.) They could have won the division outright and been well rested and well positioned for the playoffs had the following players not regressed or failed to improve:
Jason Heyward - Jason had an ops+ of 105, 95 and 142 the first three months of the season but still with only 5 homers and a poor slugging percentage. His second half regression was certainly aided by his injury, but it was startling. His last three months ops+ was 80, 90 and 73, which qualifies him as one of the worst players taking regular at bats in baseball. The last 2 weeks it's been even worse at 58. Some pitchers do better. Average OPS+ this year league wide was 97 which included pitchers hitting. So Heyward was a well below average hitter 3 months and at least below average 4 out of 6. It is no coincidence that his two best months were the same months the Cubs offense was clicking. Jason hit only 8 homers this year and stole one base. He made several defensive miscues including a crucial one in the Cardinals series that led to runs. Considering there are 5 years left on his contract I hope and expect the Cubs to take a hit this offseason and attempt to move him, no matter the cost, and they should.
Addison Russell - When Billy Beane traded Addison Russell to the Cubs for their best two starters he told Theo he had just acquired Barry Larkin. Although some of his stats in 2016 were encouraging, he has never been even an average major league hitter. His OPS in 2016 was 733 which was still below average for his position. This year he managed an anemic .657. His slugging this year was .340, average for his position was .416. While playing in 19 less games than 2016 he committed more errors. His regression and now fall from grace is a major disappointment for the Cubs. I don't know what team will want him at this point but after for seasons now Addison Russell pretty much is what he is, a decent fielding poor slugging, low average hitter who has shown no signs of improvement for two seasons, in fact has regressed. Considering his off the field struggles I assume he will be moved. I just don't know who will take him.
Tyler Chatwood - What can be said other than that he is a complete bust? In the beginning of the season the Cubs were able to outscore his wildness. He even won 4 games for them. His WHIP has never been good. 1.66 in 142 innings his rookie year. 1.44 last year and a whopping 1.804 this year. It cannot be understated the impact of Chatwood's failure on the team. The reliever's were used heavily nearly every day he started. He was tagged with only six losses but his explosion hurt the bullpen and hurt the team. Hindsight is always 20/20 but Miles Mikolas signed for far less and he looks like an ace.
Front Office - I love our front office as much as anybody but this was by far their worst season yet. Every signing but Cishek failed, some spectacularly.The Chatwood signing, the Darvish signing and the Heyward 8 year albatross. I guess the Heyward rah rah speech in game 7 was worth it. But if Heyward had actually hit the baseball they wouldn't have been in that situation to need his speech. Firing Bosio and Mallee clearly didn't work out. Hicks hasn't impressed me as a guy who can help pitchers improve. The offense tried Chili's new approach and it clearly didn't work and he should be gone. The Hamels move was excellent, the Murphy move dropped into their laps but they pulled the trigger so full credit to them. Chavez was easily their best move of the year. So they didn't miss on everything. But Theo's track record all the way back to Carl Crawford isn't a good one. He loves the big splash, which makes the offseason fun, but is not sustainable. Much as the front office expects the players to work in the offseason to better themselves by evaluating what is working and what isn't, I hope Theo and crew do the same and start doing a better job of outside talent evaluation. That being said, sign Harper and Kimbrel. :)
In conclusion, I don't think the window is closing by any means. The future is still bright. But changes need to be made.
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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2798834-cubs-once-rising-dynasty-at-risk-after-massive-2018-letdown?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
I was told this summer that every sportswriter was eager to run a post mortum on the Cubs and already had poison pen articles on Maddon ready to roll. In spite of their platitudes in the good times, some consider Maddon as full of himself and condescending, so expect a few anti-Maddon rips. Frankly, I would probably be condescending also to some of the dumb questions these reporters ask.
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It would have been brilliant for the Cubs to sign Mikolas by just adding half of Chatwood's money to get him and then signing Cain to leadoff and patrol CF. Not only would we have a tablesetter, Milwaukee wouldn't have gotten him. But hindsight is 20/20.
However, hindsight also tells us that the fault in the leadership office is the same as the one on this board: we love our players. We commit to our players, we fear they will break out for someone else, and we wish to repay their loyalty. As a result, how do you trade a Schwarber who trains like he did last winter in order to get better? It's tough. Or Happ who has upside? Or Almora who you've invested a lot of time in? I think there was affection for Russell, too. There was a time that we all thought he would be a great hitter, and he provided moments like the Bote play this past month. All is spilt milk.
I disagree with some on here that Theocracy was oblivious to the problem. The pickup of Murphy was a sign they knew they needed more contact hitting. The pickup of Hamels showed they understood the pitching pickle. I still have confidence they will get us back to dynasty status; I just think it will be a painful divorcing of some affections for them.
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I wouldn't say that the Cubs are fine. They are a very good team, but they will need to improve significantly to keep pace with the other top teams in the NL and to catch up to the juggernauts in the AL. It will take Theo magic to make that happen.
That said, I feel sorry for those who only seemed to see the flaws and shortcomings of the 2018 Cubs. While there was a lot about which to be disappointed, there were also many things to appreciate and enjoy (at least for me). And I can't wait to see what the 2019 season has in store.
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I agree Play, there were many things that went right this year for the Cubs. Rizzo's second half, Hamels, Chavez and most of all Baez. The bullpen was better this year until they wore out from early overuse. I am very hopeful that a full offseason of rest plus some re-tooling will have this team ready to dominate next year.
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Robb, I agree with you that the "long stretch of games took its toll" and I agree with P2 that 95 wins is a pretty great season.
At the end of the day, despite our offensive struggles this season in many games, we've still hit the playoffs 4 years in a row and are in a solid position for next season.
However, what's also true is that the Brewers should also be strong next season, the Cards and Bucs have tons of great young pitching and the Reds should be much better. It will be even harder to win 95 from the NLC in 2019!
C'mon Theo!
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Does anyone know how to watch Theo's end of the season press conference this afternoon live? Or even what time it is?
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Does anyone know how to watch Theo's end of the season press conference this afternoon live? Or even what time it is?
Silvy @WaddleandSilvy 1h1 hour ago
We carry the #Cubs/Theo presser at 4pm. Plus-@ESPNChiCubs 3pm. @RealMikeWilbon 5pm. @MarkGiangreco7 5:30. And @TWaddle87’s world 3:30.
Somebody in Chicago might be able to provide a link.
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Silvy @WaddleandSilvy 18m18 minutes ago
Silvy Retweeted Alex Martin
Download the @espn app and we're two clicks away. Click on the headphones at the bottom of the screen to start the process.
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@WaddleandSilvy how can we listen to show live on our iPhone?
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You can listen on the ESPN app or stream it online.
http://www.espn.com/chicago/radio/
You can stream the Score through the radio.com app.
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https://tunein.com/radio/ESPN-Chicago-1000-s21297/
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So it's just about to start?
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https://tunein.com/radio/ESPN-Chicago-1000-s21297/
Sounds like 4:00 central time.
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Ok, that works, thanks
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It would be nice if we could hear the questions being asked
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First two questions are about Addison Russell.
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Fifth question is about Joe's status
Theo - no friction - we don't always agree - doesn't want yes man - look forward to him coming back next year.
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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #9141 on: October 02, 2018, 11:01:23 pm »
This is excruciating. But I can't look away...
From the Today's Game topic, but I pretty much reached my breaking point around the 8th inning last night. I turned the TV off and started listening to Pat and Ron starting around then and found it a lot less stressful to do that the rest of the way. And not to quibble too much with Joe's managing last night, but when he starts going into the bullpen in a playoff game and starts swapping out relievers because someone like Drew Butera is coming to the plate, it just gets nerve wracking for me. I probably spent the last 5 innings last night just waiting for the inevitable moment we found the reliever who sucked while our offense couldn't do much of anything with the limited chances they had.
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Theo went on a bit about it being time to evaluate based on production over talent now. And how are guys who were doing things at 22-23 years old, not taking the next step at 24, 25, 26...
Nice knowing you Schwarbs
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Theo is indirectly saying Chili Davis is gone. Not happy with the diminished power, walks, balls in the air. No coaching decisions have been made at this point but he isn't saying they'll all be back either. Sounds to me like Chili might want to call a moving company and start pricing.
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He is happy with the bullpen overall. Happy with the strike throwing overall but they'll be looking for more help there. Called Cole Hamels a breathe of fresh air, pro's pro. Well respected in the clubhouse and on the field. Positive presence. Absolutely someone they want as part of the mix going forward.
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Spending more money on players isn't always the answer.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
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Theo is indirectly saying Chili Davis is gone. Not happy with the diminished power, walks, balls in the air. No coaching decisions have been made at this point but he isn't saying they'll all be back either. Sounds to me like Chili might want to call a moving company and start pricing.
Interesting interpretation. I did not share it.
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There's a reason teams love firing hitting (and pitching) coaches. It has the allure of the quick fix - maybe you can turn it around without spending a lot of money or parting with players you may be emotionally committed to. In the end I don't think they make a huge difference either way most of the time, but they're always going to be a target.
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I know some will not agree, but this press conference reminds me of and reinforces my appreciation of and admiration for Theo.
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Interesting interpretation. I did not share it.
Like you said, an interpretation. Theo isn't going to come out and say he is firing Chili before talking to him. He did say the following: the offense was broken, he didn't like the regression of his younger hitters who should be trending upward year over year but are not or worse, are regressing. Most notably, he said he wasn't happy that the new approach had diminished balls in the air and power. When asked about Chili specifically he said he worked really hard. Maybe he keeps him, but I seriously doubt it.
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I wasn't listening closely, but I heard Theo mention "exit interview" a couple times. Was that for someone in particular or just something they do with everyone at the end of the year?
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Players and coaches sit down with the front office about goals for next year.
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Yeah, they always do the exit interviews with all the players after the season. All teams in all pro sports do that, I think.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
Of course they did. Why would they do anything else? They’re not going to hang coaches (or managers) out to dry while they’re still in their positions.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
Yeah and they were happy with Dale Sveum too up until the second to the last day of the regular season before they fired him.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
Also figure out how the Yanks add velocity to everybody.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
It's not as if they have ignored this.
Cease, Norwood, Maples, De la Cruz, Clark, Albertos, Marquez, Underwood, Steele, Frasier have all been drafted or international signees.
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Velocity is nice but only the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago White Sox issued more walks than the Cubs in 2018.
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Yankees and Astros averaged 95.3 and 95.2 in fastball velocity as a staff. They had 8% (10th in MLB) and 7.4% (4th in MLB) BB%. The had 26.6% (2nd) and 28.5% (1st) K% in MLB. Velocity doesn't mean poor control.
The Cubs 21.3% (20th) K%, 9.9% BB% (28th) with 92.8 mph (25th).
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive. However, it is probably too large of a jump to think that not saying they are going to fire someone is proof that they are indeed going to do so.
Last year, many pointed out that the offense had declined, or at the very least, not improved over 2016. Last year, they fired the hitting coach. This year, it got even worse.
One year is much too small a sample size to evaluate any manager, hitting coach or pitching coach. There are just too many random variables.
If Bryant had had a healthy shoulder all year, how much better would he have been? If Russell had not hurt his hand in July, how much better would he have been? Did the production of Contreras go down because he was injured, because he was overworked, or because the hitting coach screwed him up? Could any coach level out the peaks and valleys of Baez's magnificent - horrible hitting streaks? Could any hitting coach restore Heyward to his pre-signing level. For that matter, could any hitting coach totally revamp the philosophy and lifelong techniques of an entire team in a single year?
I have always been under the belief that the Manager is of less importance to the performance of a team that at least 20 of the 25 man roster. Which is probably why many on the team with more than 5 years of experience is probably making more money than the manager. Epstein can try to pacify part of the fan base by firing a coach or manager, but regardless, he has to make decisions about his playing personnel.
But hindsight doesn't help much.
It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa.
Two years ago, several recommended trading Schwarber. At that time, his trade value was quite high, and a trade would probably have worked out well for the Cubs. Two years ago, several recommended trading Baez. At that time his trade value was fairly high, and a trade would probably have worked out very badly for the Cubs.
Regardless of what we did or did not do two years ago, we live in the present. Schwarber will not bring back the quality of player that he would have brought two years ago. Nor would Almora or Russell. Or Happ. None of them would likely bring back players that will substantially improve either the offense or the defense. Would the value of the players received exceed the value of the potential of these players to achieve production that at matches their talent.
These are the decisions that Epstein and Hoyer have to make. As a fan, the only thing I have to judge their ability to make good decisions is to look at the success of the team over their tenure. I realize that many don't agree with me, but for the last four years, they have been the team I have longed for over the decades. They have been in the playoffs every year, winning the division three years and winning the World Series once. I see no reason why this performance can not continue over the next four years. And this is extremely good production. Even the best team in baseball has odds of 3 to 1 against them as they enter the playoffs. The teams are too closely matched, and each series is too short to prevent a lessor team getting hot or a better team getting cold, to have a success rate much better than that. Since the advent of playoffs, how many teams have repeated World Series Championships, even at a time when spending was pretty much unlimited for the large market teams?
I want the Cubs to be the 1990s Braves - in the fight right up to the end, making the season enjoyable from start to finish - and that is what the Ricketts family and the current front office has given us. Their success has far exceeded rational expectations, and I see no reason to believe that will change in the near future.
In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
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Well said, DaveP.
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Yankees and Astros averaged 95.3 and 95.2 in fastball velocity as a staff. They had 8% (10th in MLB) and 7.4% (4th in MLB) BB%. The had 26.6% (2nd) and 28.5% (1st) K% in MLB. Velocity doesn't mean poor control.
The Cubs 21.3% (20th) K%, 9.9% BB% (28th) with 92.8 mph (25th).
Thanks, Blue, very helpful data perspective. I think your point that "velocity doesn't mean poor control" is very well taken. I think if anything, velocity trends towards having better control.
For most pitchers the fastball is the easiest pitch to throw for a strike (Maples/Edwards notwithstanding). Guys with enough velocity to attack with the fastball have an easier time throwing strikes and having control. And not only is a fastball easier to throw for a strike than a curve, but an excellent fastball doesn't need to be as fine and nibble the corner as precisely either.
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I lean towards velocity because it gives you a larger margin of error, but what I really want is staff that strikes people and doesn't walk people. The Cubs staff wasn't any of that.
The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development. The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity. They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more.
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I like Theo and his approach, and listening to his interview.
Still, I admit I kind of wonder.
1. He made a point of several times distinguishing between performance and talent. Is this a case of Boss misjudging and over-valuing his talent?
2. He said the offense was broken, now; yet he emphasized how great they were first-half. Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the first-half offense is the real normal? Maybe the first half is the norm, but I wonder?
*When gushing about the first half, he did *not* acknowledge that being a bottom-3rd HR team was already manifest then.
*The first half was also supported by Almora hitting like a batting champion and Heyward hitting really well too.
*If Theo is counting on that being future normal, is that a wise and realistic premise?
3. He talked about urgency and intensity. Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the talent is great and sufficient but it just needs to want to try harder?
*Maybe it was a bunch of underachievers playing below their talent.
*But I wonder whether whatever limits Heyward/Almora/Schwarber/Happ/Russell/Caratini have as hitters isn't perhaps more lack of skill than lack of will?
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...The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development. The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity. They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more.
Lange said he was told it's normal to lose velocity, as you transition from once-a-week. Little and Lange both did lose, and now both profile as guys who need to be soft-toss spin specialists to make it.
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If the Yankees drafted Lange and Little they'd be throwing 100.
This isn't a full list, but from the Fangraphs prospects page the Yanks have 16 guys with 55 or higher fastballs. The Cubs have 6.
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In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
Amen.
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About 27 minutes into Epstein's meeting with the Chicago media, I asked him about how big a factor the schedule and fatigue were in the team finishing the season with a thud, losing in Game 163 of the regular season to the Milwaukee Brewers and in the wild-card game to the Colorado Rockies.
The question was prefaced that the schedule was what it was -- 42 scheduled game days in 43 days down the stretch -- and that nobody likes to hear excuses.
I wasn't sure what Epstein would say, but his answer was more than 1,000 words long, and he cut off another question by telling a reporter he wasn't finished yet.
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20181004/epstein-cubs-schedule-was-a-lot-but-every-team-has-things-to-deal-with
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Beyond the platitudes (which Theo is as good at as anybody), there were some code words in his presser that tipped off his true mindset. "Broken", not enough urgency, "didn't show up for the first half of the season". He's not happy with the status quo in the clubhouse and it should be obvious to anyone not intentionally blinding themselves to it.
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I don't think anyone who doesn't win the world series is "happy" with the status quo. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to gut the team or make major personnel changes.
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Sounds like an indictment of the coaching staff to me.
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I thought Theo talked a lot but didn't really say anything. There was something for everyone regardless of what your position is on any of the subjects.
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I admit I'm a little uncertain about this. I think attributing too much to psychological/clubhouse-chemistry/urgency stuff may be a factor, but might also really miss the point. (When pitchers forget to cover first, that I can explain with losing focus, sure...)
But for hitting, is that really a thing?
For guys like Happ and Schwarber, will urgency impact their capacity to hit fastballs above the waist?
Can any pro athlete lack the competitiveness to collect his wits and fully focus during 4-5 brief at-bats? And even within a 3-min AB, most of that is relax time taking practice swings and waiting for pitcher.
Seems to me that any pro athlete can put ALL life issues aside during those few seconds in the box, and be totally focused on winning that AB? (Daughter might be in hospital, father might have cancer, wife might be angry, etc.; I suspect real pro competitors can put all of that aside when they're in the box.) .
Maybe it factors for prep? Urgency to study film, or to work on something productive in BP?
Different on defense, I can see mind drifting.
But for a hitter actually in the box? I just can't see that being much of an issue.
So I'm kind of hesitant to think a "broken" offense can get fixed with "urgency".
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Not in the box, no...
On defense, sure...on the bases, sure, even immediately after contact (not running out a lazy pop fly or a weak grounder), yes, all the time...
But not in the box...when you're in the box, it's game on...always...
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Exactly. Urgency isn't going to solve the offense. Other solutions needed for that.
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Wow! https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/08/kyle-schwarber-had-a-good-overall-season-but-by-one-measure-he-was-historically-un-clutch/
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Schwarber’s trade value is a fascinating puzzle and a key factor this offseason. I’m honestly not sure how to assess it, and I don’t know if a lot of GMs are either.
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That's pretty amazing. Seems about how we'd remember it.
I wonder if Schwarber isn't inherently a likely to always underperform in clutch? He's an extreme splits guy. A HR hitter with just 1 HR versus LHP; and a slow lefty who likes to hit grounders into the shift. >200 points worse versus lefties.
In high-leverage situation, why would an opposing manager let him face a RHP? In the 2nd inning, they're not going to pull their RHP against Schwarber. But in late high-leverage, won't his numbers stink because opponents make him face lefties all the time, against whom he always kinda stinks?
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Amazing that Russell and Contreras were also on that list.
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Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.
IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.
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Thome isn’t a bad long-term comp for Schwarber, maybe.
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Hall of Famer Jim Thome?
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Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic) 2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.
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Man, I wish they’d traded Schwarber for Miller instead of the Chapman trade. Assuming that was really an option, of course.
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Hall of Famer Jim Thome?
Upside man, upside.
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Agree re Schwarber's upside...just finished his age 25 season with less than 1,100 ABs. Some progress this season. Very hard worker. Real good team guy.
I'd guess Theo's not ready to sell on Schwarber yet unless something really good comes his way this off-season (which isn't likely).
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It just seems like change is coming - someone from the core (besides Russell) is going to be outbound. And Schwarber seems like the most logical candidate in many ways.
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Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.
IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.
Kris Bryant says hi
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Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic) 2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.
As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing? Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.
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As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing? Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.
At this point, it's probably the best case scenario. Outside of 2011, Napoli was a slightly above average player overall who only provided value with his bat, and that's probably what Schwarber is. That's far less than the JD Martinez-like hitter the Cubs seem to think he'll turn into.
I'm still really skeptical of Schwarber's defense. As soon as the league figures out they can't run on his arm, I don't think he provides any defensive value.
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Preventing people from taking extra bases is also defensive value. A guy on 1st is a lot less likely to score than a guy on second. Schwarber’s range factor was been positive for 2 years. He isn’t a butcher that everybody makes him out to be.
FWIW JD Martinez was coming off a wRC+ of 75 and about to get released at Schwarber age.
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Schwarber has improved enough on defense to fool the defensive metrics into thinking he was above average for a season. He's probably a net-neutral in left, and he walks enough and hits enough HRs that he can probably get you an .800 OPS if you platoon him. There's value in that, especially as he's cheap with several seasons of team control. Who knows, maybe some GM out there thinks he can catch twice a week. I don't think he's going to fetch anything huge when he's dealt, but it should certainly be more than negligible.
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Kris Bryant says hi
Bryant's issues--not the exact ones being mentioned about Schwarber--were more than a one year phenomenon, and Bryant was an MVP. When Schwarber is deemed a savior then we can maybe make a comparison.
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Terry Francona is apparently in trouble in Cleveland. Let Joe have the Angels job and snatch him up.
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Bryant's issues--not the exact ones being mentioned about Schwarber--were more than a one year phenomenon, and Bryant was an MVP. When Schwarber is deemed a savior then we can maybe make a comparison.
So when the stat fits my narrative it is useful, got it.
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Amazing that Russell and Contreras were also on that list.
I wish they had included the same list for the 2017 season. Where would Schwarber, Russell and Contreras be on that list.
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So when the stat fits my narrative it is useful, got it.
You don't have it. There is no narrative. Facts are facts. Nobody is disputing that Schwarber was terrible in some clutch situations this year including 1-14 with the bases loaded. Nobody is or was claiming Schwarber was an elite offensive player or MVP either.
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Over these multiple seasons Bryant has struggled how many PA are we talking about in high leverage situations?
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Sahadev Sharma has an article on Kris Bryant. While the focus is on his future with the Cubs, it includes this section, which serves as a reminder of just how good this guy can be, and how stupid it is to do a head first slide to beat out an infield hit.
"It’s easy to forget just how good Bryant was to start the season. Through the season’s first 38 games, Bryant had a .311/.422/.595 slash line. He was walking at a 12.2 percent rate, striking out just 15.6 percent of the time and on pace for 60 doubles, 35 home runs, 120 runs scored and 99 RBIs. Then on May 19, in the 11th inning in the front end of a doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds, Bryant did this to try and beat out an infield single.
"He was safe, recording his third hit of the day. But that’s the moment the Cubs believe Bryant banged up his left shoulder. From that point on, Bryant’s power was sapped and his season numbers were sunk. Bryant had two stints on the disabled list and played just 64 games the remainder of the season. He slashed .249/.339/.378 the rest of the way, delivering just 20 more extra-base hits (he had 24 when that slide into first occurred) while striking out 28.5 percent of the time.
"Bryant wound up posting a career-worst batting average, slugging percentage, ISO, walk rate, hard contact rate, soft contact rate and wRC+. He had his second-highest strikeout percentage and second-lowest OBP. (It would’ve been his worst OBP if not for the 17 times he got hit by a pitch.)"
https://theathletic.com/582294/2018/10/11/the-only-thing-kris-bryant-wanted-to-extend-was-the-cubs-season/?source=dailyemail
The video to which Sharma refers shows Bryant beating out an grounder by sliding head first into 1B. I continue to be astonished that major league baseball players ever do this. Guessing it may be the last time Bryant does that. Sure hope so, anyway.
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The video to which Sharma refers shows Bryant beating out an grounder by sliding head first into 1B. I continue to be astonished that major league baseball players ever do this. Guessing it may be the last time Bryant does that. Sure hope so, anyway.
I continue to be astonished that Joe Maddon allows it.
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"It’s easy to forget just how good Bryant was to start the season. Through the season’s first 38 games, Bryant had a .311/.422/.595 slash line. He was walking at a 12.2 percent rate, striking out just 15.6 percent of the time and on pace for 60 doubles, 35 home runs, 120 runs scored and 99 RBIs. Then on May 19, in the 11th inning in the front end of a doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds, Bryant did this to try and beat out an infield single.
That reminds me of a post I made in the Today’s Game topic on May 25
If it weren't for Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant would be a shoo-in for NL All-Star third baseman.
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I continue to be astonished that Joe Maddon allows it.
Heh heh, yeah! :)
Still, I don't know, at two levels...
First, if he started telling guys they "aren't allowed" to slide into 1st, that might be one of the first and only "not allowed" things for Maddon's players? Is there anything that he doesn't "allow"? His philosophy is pretty much to let guys play freely, and not tell them what they can or can't do. (I guess "respect 90" is maybe one thing....)
Second, I'm not sure that head-first sliding is either bad, or more risky than feet-first? Players slide a ton; is there anything wrong with head-first sliding versus feet-first sliding? And, even if head-first is somewhat more dangerous, can you imagine telling El-Mago to quit because it's too risky?
But I really question whether head-first actually is any more hazardous than feet-first, Bryant's injury while sliding hand-first not-withstanding? Hand-first would seem to be more vulnerable to jamming fingers, or perhaps hurting a wrist. But I almost feel like hard, late feet-first slides are almost as, or more risky, for ankle-injury as hand-first slides are for shoulder or wrist injury.
And to some degree I also wonder whether running through 1st base on a close play where you're really stretching to get beat the throw might not almost be equally as more risky?
*Getting hit in the head with a throw or a tag?
*Body-on-body collision, at risk to knees/ankles head/neck/ribs, if the throw is off-line and the 1B needs to step into the running path to catch the ball or make a tag?
*Pulled hamstring or pulled groin while trying to stretch to extend and reach the bag?
*Ankle injury when landing awkwardly on the bag?
*Tripping on either the bag or the 1B's foot, and falling awkwardly?
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It seems to me that running through first base has to be safer than any kind of slide. Also, I'm not aware of any data that sliding is advantageous in touching first base quicker than running through the base. I would be on board with telling my players never to slide into first base.
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I think they do it on instinct, so I'm not sure you can "ban" it in any real sense.
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It seems to me that running through first base has to be safer than any kind of slide. Also, I'm not aware of any data that sliding is advantageous in touching first base quicker than running through the base. I would be on board with telling my players never to slide into first base.
This is a sincere question. *IF* sliding (both feet-first and hands-first) is both less fast and less safe, why do so many Cubs slide? Why would they opt for poor practice unless they had a different perception of it's merits?
Some hypothetical answers:
1. Maybe they incorrectly *think* it's faster? But no coaches or Cubs-Way training ever communicated otherwise?
2. Cubs-Way believes it's as fast or faster, or as safe or safer? I remember Steve Stone always saying sliding was slower, and that's what I've always heard for decades; but maybe Cubs analytics believes otherwise?
3. Or maybe they incorrectly think it's safer? But no coaches or Cubs-Way training every communicated otherwise?
4. Or maybe Cubs-Way believes it's safer?
5. Or maybe they only slide conditionally: when they perceive the possibility of a collision? But perhaps the perception is that on any close play, a bad throw might put the throw and the 1B directly in the running line at the last second, so sliding obviates risk of a high-speed collision?
Q: It seems to pretty much correlate to Cubs-Way Cubs, right? Baez, Bryant, Almora, and Contreras, guys who came up almost exclusively under CubsWay, are the slide-into-first guys, no? So maybe that's a reflection of what's taught in the system; or perhaps that CubsWay didn't say anything about it and doesn't address it at all?
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October 11, 2018 View as web page
Dear Cubs Fans,
"Everybody In." This simple declaration holds great meaning. While our roster is 25 players strong, it's the millions of committed teammates that make what we do special. You bring our beloved ballpark to life and make road games feel like home games. We cannot say it enough ... you are the best fans in sports.
While we fell short of our ultimate goal in 2018, our team earned 95 wins for the third time in the past four seasons. We are just the fifth NL club in the divisional era to make the postseason four years in a row. This level of sustained success doesn't happen often and it certainly doesn't happen without your support.
The memorable moments of 2018 - some of the best ever at Wrigley Field - underscore why our ballpark is so magical. Together, we enjoyed dramatic comeback wins, electric grand slams, shutdown pitching performances and spectacular defensive plays. And, who will ever forget El Mago stealing home? In addition to countless team accomplishments, we also witnessed tremendous individual efforts. Veterans Jon Lester and Ben Zobrist were among the best at their craft, Anthony Rizzo continues to provide the heartbeat for our team, and Javy Báez, who delivered an MVP-caliber season, is perhaps the most exciting player in baseball.
Unfortunately, a thrilling summer at Wrigley Field gave way to a disappointing October. Falling one game short in the NL Central and making an early postseason exit, while both unfamiliar and uncomfortable, will motivate us. We will spend the winter working hard to give Joe Maddon and our team the support they need to reclaim our division.
In addition, we continue to restore and modernize the Friendly Confines. Inside the ballpark, we introduced new premier experiences and a variety of concessions for fans to enjoy. We will continue to deliver new fan amenities this coming season, especially in the upper level. Outside the ballpark, Hotel Zachary opened to great success and added several new retail and restaurant options. We also doubled the number of community events offered at Gallagher Way, helping make Wrigley Field and the surrounding area a year-round destination for families and fans. This award-winning community asset has transformed Wrigleyville and improved the overall gameday experience.
From our own backyard to neighborhoods all across Chicago, we're delivering on our goal of being a good neighbor. We are proud to be one of the most philanthropic franchises in sports. Our team and Cubs Charities continue to raise record funds, deliver meaningful programming and increase access to diamond sports. Through Cubs Jr. All-Stars, Diamond Project, Cubs Scholars and Cubs Care grants, we positively impacted more than 135,000 youth this year alone.
Despite our abrupt ending on the field, our team is in no way defined by one Wild Card loss. The overwhelming sentiment, from our front office to the clubhouse, is that we have a lot of work to do and will be back stronger than ever. The talented core that fueled this unprecedented run of success is still in place. Our players are young and hungry. Our fans are committed like no other fan base. We are ready to write the next chapter of our amazing story.
Go Cubs,
Tom Ricketts
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Curt, Steve Stone used to always ask:
"when was the last time you saw an Olympic sprinter dive to the finish line?"
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I think you have me confused with that darn Craig again.
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Diving to first is NOT faster than running through, but it IS faster than the last step being a giant leap.
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Craig, every piece of analytics I've seen is that running through the bag is faster than sliding into first. The only time it makes sense to slide is to avoid the tag.
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I'm not arguing any of those claims.
So then, the logical conclusion has to be that since all of the young Cubs who came up CubsWay are kinda dummies? And the Cubs management and CubsWay instructional personnel are dumbos too?
That's kinda depressing. Part of the Theo thing was supposed to be having a smart, best-of-everything development system.
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Do the Cubs really slide into first more than other teams? I've certainly never counted, but it never struck me that there was any huge difference.
I really think guys just do it in the heat of the moment. I doubt there's any instruction to do so taking place.
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Do the Cubs really slide into first more than other teams? I've certainly never counted, but it never struck me that there was any huge difference.
I really think guys just do it in the heat of the moment. I doubt there's any instruction to do so taking place.
I agree. For the guy who's hustling, busting his ass to first, when he sees it's going to be close, tends to throw his whole body into the effort, logic not withstanding. I think we are programmed to reach for the prize with our hands, not our feet.
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I played baseball for a lot of years, and I never had the instinct to slide/dive into first base. Never.
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Curt, Steve Stone used to always ask:
"when was the last time you saw an Olympic sprinter dive to the finish line?"
I think that no one should ever slide into first base, except in the rare instance of avoiding a tag when the throw is off line. However, the Olympic sprinter comment doesn't seem to be valid. A sprinter has to touch the tape with his chest. This prevents him from merely reaching forward with his had to touch it earlier, which I feel certain would work.
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Patrick Mooney is catching a lot of flak for his latest article at The Athletic re: Chili Davis and the Cubs Way...
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Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
I talked with Chili Davis today. He wished the Cubs well and admitted things didn't always "mesh" easily or enough between him and the players. He said there are no hard feelings after being fired as the team's hitting coach on Thursday.
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Patrick Mooney has a fine, appreciative piece on Pedro Strop. Mooney documents just how good he's been for the Cubs, including producing some of the best numbers of any Cubs reliever in history, and some impressive stats when compared to other MLB relievers.
• Strop and Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen are the only pitchers to appear in at least 50 games and post a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons.
• Strop is the only pitcher in franchise history with at least five seasons of 50-plus games and a sub-3.00 ERA. He also has the franchise record for holds (114) and ranks fourth in relief appearances (361).
• Among Cubs relievers all-time with at least 100 games pitched, Strop ranks second in ERA (2.63), third in batting average against (.181) and sixth in strikeouts per nine innings (10.21).
• Opponents have a .187 batting average against Strop at Wrigley Field, where only Carlos Marmol (.182), Arrieta (.182) and Sandy Koufax (.187) have posted better marks.
https://theathletic.com/583998/2018/10/17/how-pedro-strop-is-becoming-a-cub-for-life/
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That's really cool, Ron. Strop has really been good, and what a delightful, easy to like guy he's been. Great young man and terrific contributor.
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He's Morrow insurance.
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He's become one of my favorite Cubs.
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What is the “Cub for life” angle about?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive. However, it is probably too large of a jump to think that not saying they are going to fire someone is proof that they are indeed going to do so.
Last year, many pointed out that the offense had declined, or at the very least, not improved over 2016. Last year, they fired the hitting coach. This year, it got even worse.
One year is much too small a sample size to evaluate any manager, hitting coach or pitching coach. There are just too many random variables.
If Bryant had had a healthy shoulder all year, how much better would he have been? If Russell had not hurt his hand in July, how much better would he have been? Did the production of Contreras go down because he was injured, because he was overworked, or because the hitting coach screwed him up? Could any coach level out the peaks and valleys of Baez's magnificent - horrible hitting streaks? Could any hitting coach restore Heyward to his pre-signing level. For that matter, could any hitting coach totally revamp the philosophy and lifelong techniques of an entire team in a single year?
I have always been under the belief that the Manager is of less importance to the performance of a team that at least 20 of the 25 man roster. Which is probably why many on the team with more than 5 years of experience is probably making more money than the manager. Epstein can try to pacify part of the fan base by firing a coach or manager, but regardless, he has to make decisions about his playing personnel.
But hindsight doesn't help much.
It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa.
Two years ago, several recommended trading Schwarber. At that time, his trade value was quite high, and a trade would probably have worked out well for the Cubs. Two years ago, several recommended trading Baez. At that time his trade value was fairly high, and a trade would probably have worked out very badly for the Cubs.
Regardless of what we did or did not do two years ago, we live in the present. Schwarber will not bring back the quality of player that he would have brought two years ago. Nor would Almora or Russell. Or Happ. None of them would likely bring back players that will substantially improve either the offense or the defense. Would the value of the players received exceed the value of the potential of these players to achieve production that at matches their talent.
These are the decisions that Epstein and Hoyer have to make. As a fan, the only thing I have to judge their ability to make good decisions is to look at the success of the team over their tenure. I realize that many don't agree with me, but for the last four years, they have been the team I have longed for over the decades. They have been in the playoffs every year, winning the division three years and winning the World Series once. I see no reason why this performance can not continue over the next four years. And this is extremely good production. Even the best team in baseball has odds of 3 to 1 against them as they enter the playoffs. The teams are too closely matched, and each series is too short to prevent a lessor team getting hot or a better team getting cold, to have a success rate much better than that. Since the advent of playoffs, how many teams have repeated World Series Championships, even at a time when spending was pretty much unlimited for the large market teams?
I want the Cubs to be the 1990s Braves - in the fight right up to the end, making the season enjoyable from start to finish - and that is what the Ricketts family and the current front office has given us. Their success has far exceeded rational expectations, and I see no reason to believe that will change in the near future.
In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
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"It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa."
Dave, I agree with your whole post back on October 4, except the above paragraph. From the get go, the Cubs wanted to create a different culture, a family, a fun atmosphere that still knew how to win. As a result, players who helped create a solid clubhouse are treasured, those didn't, got shipped out. You offer as a counter that they have shipped out young players like Torres and Eloy for other players. Those players were not already IN Chicago, embraced by all the fans. You can't name many players or any players who became part of the Cub family, accepted and embraced by both front office and the fans, who've been traded. Schwarber, Russell, Almora, Happ, Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Hendricks, Edwards...all still here, though Russell may not be for long, and I think a few of those guys may have to go in a trade of some kind. Arrieta, Wilson, Lackey, Fowler, FA's, allowed to leave. Interesting that some like the atmosphere so much, Duensing and Fowler, they come back for less. When I say, the FO loves their players, that's not necessarily a bad thing. If they have a core that they believe in and creates the kind of team they want, why shouldn't they love them and hesitate to trade them? But I think there has been a genuine affection expressed for the guys on the field, including guys like Lester and Zobrist who were brought in. I interpret Theo's comments to mean that they need to work on overcoming those feelings as they strive to put a more dominant team on the field.
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I didn't mean to dispute that the front office has fallen in love with some of their young players. I merely meant to say that the fact that they love them is not the reason they were not traded. Not a single young player (with the exception perhaps of Rizzo, if he is young) has yet reached their potential. (Obviously, some never will, but it is not that easy to identify those who will or will not reach that potential). I believe that they have not traded any of those you mentioned simply because they felt they had more long term value to the Cubs than the players they were offered in exchange.
The Cubs needed pitching. Many wanted them to trade Russell or Baez to get it. It is easy to say in hindsight that they should have traded Russell when they had a chance, but it would probably been a mistake to have traded Baez. Instead, they did not ignore their pitching problems. They merely tried to solve it through free agency. They didn't make a trade, not because then didn't want to trade a loved player, but because they didn't want to trade the WRONG loved player, as long as they had other, safer options.
It turned out that the safer options were not all that safe, but again, hindsight is not very helpful. Very few were unhappy with the signing of Darvish, and they got him without risking a trade of the wrong young player.
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Thats a good distinction, Curt. They've been ruthless with trading minor leaguers. But the only young major leaguer they've traded has been Soler, and Castro, two guys they didn't love.
Not sure what they can do now, though. Russell and Schwarber, their value drops year by year by year. There was a time when either could have been a centerpiece in a major deal; those days are gone. For two reasons. 1st, as club control shortens and arb salary increases, automatically the value drops. 2nd, when a guy is really young and new, projecting age-based improvement makes sense. That fades with each year of plateau-or-decline.
Assuming Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo are off-the-table, do we have others with major trade value? Deeg would consider shopping Contreras. But I don't imagine Schwarber, Happ, Russell, or Almora are all that appealing to anybody anymore.
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Interesting piece from Bruce Miles (who remains the best Cubs beat reporter by a wide margin) on the total clusterfrick the club has made of the hitting coach position:
http://bit.ly/2Pd8ENl
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Sorry, but that's a total hit piece.
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The truth hurts sometimes.
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I didn't want to dignify my quip with purple.
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The offense is dysfunctional. If they don't add a couple really good hitters this offseason, Iapoce is going to have the same experience with this group that Davis and Mallee had the last two years.
Davis was a mistake, though. Late 80s/early 90s hitting strategy doesn't work in 2018.
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I agree that the everyday 8 needs a makeover.
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I didn't want to dignify my quip with purple.
I apologize for missing that delicious pun. Kudos.
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I like Javy's chances. Rizzo's bunt defense should give him a shot too.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqX8srQWsAIhkWv.jpg:small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqX6rFDWsAAyyMG.jpg:small)
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Baez played a lot of games at SS this year, that isn't going to help his chances.
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Baez played a lot of games at SS this year, that isn't going to help his chances.
Palmeiro hardly played any at first base, and still won it.
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Had to go back 19 years for a counter, huh?
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Seems like yesterday.
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Jason Heyward is also a Gold Glove finalist. His competition is Jon Jay of Arizona and Nick Markakis of Atlanta.
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Incidentally, Yu Darvish is currently involved in a major controversy here for defending Yasuda Junpei, a Japanese journalist who was kidnapped in Syria and held captive for three years. Yusuda was there trying expose the atrocities of the Assad regime, but bizarrely in Japan when journalists or even students are kidnapped abroad the nationalists (who pretty much run the government and mass media) blame them for being kidnapped and causing trouble for Japan.
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Well done, Yu!
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Worth remembering that Yu's father is Iranian, so has a particular connection to events in that part of the world. Though he's generally been socially active, which is unusual for athletes here.
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive.
Imagine a world in which Donald Trump were a GM or an owner....
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I wonder if Schwarber isn't inherently a likely to always underperform in clutch? He's an extreme splits guy. A HR hitter with just 1 HR versus LHP; and a slow lefty who likes to hit grounders into the shift. >200 points worse versus lefties.
In high-leverage situation, why would an opposing manager let him face a RHP? In the 2nd inning, they're not going to pull their RHP against Schwarber. But in late high-leverage, won't his numbers stink because opponents make him face lefties all the time, against whom he always kinda stinks?
Excellent point -- in other words Schwarber may not actually be anti-clutch at all, and may actually perform the same in the clutch as in a first inning AB, but because of his dramatic L/R splits and the use of top quality relievers in clutch situations, his stats are always likely to indicate he underperforms in the clutch.
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Second, I'm not sure that head-first sliding is either bad, or more risky than feet-first? Players slide a ton; is there anything wrong with head-first sliding versus feet-first sliding? And, even if head-first is somewhat more dangerous, can you imagine telling El-Mago to quit because it's too risky?
But I really question whether head-first actually is any more hazardous than feet-first, Bryant's injury while sliding hand-first not-withstanding? Hand-first would seem to be more vulnerable to jamming fingers, or perhaps hurting a wrist. But I almost feel like hard, late feet-first slides are almost as, or more risky, for ankle-injury as hand-first slides are for shoulder or wrist injury.
And to some degree I also wonder whether running through 1st base on a close play where you're really stretching to get beat the throw might not almost be equally as more risky?
*Getting hit in the head with a throw or a tag?
*Body-on-body collision, at risk to knees/ankles head/neck/ribs, if the throw is off-line and the 1B needs to step into the running path to catch the ball or make a tag?
*Pulled hamstring or pulled groin while trying to stretch to extend and reach the bag?
*Ankle injury when landing awkwardly on the bag?
*Tripping on either the bag or the 1B's foot, and falling awkwardly?
I would think you could run the stats and play the odds. There are probably an average of at least 20 plays every game in which players run thru first and likely no more than a couple of dozen (if that many) such plays resulting in the batter's injury. There are likely an average of at least 5 plays a game in which a player slides into one base or another and there are a relatively low number of injuries from such slides. But the headfirst slide is relatively rare, yet seems to result in a very disproportionally high rate of injuries from it. The issue would seem to be the frequency and severity of injury from each approach, not how many different ways you can imagine each approach resulting in injury.
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I'm still really skeptical of Schwarber's defense. As soon as the league figures out they can't run on his arm, I don't think he provides any defensive value.
Crap, the comment I posted with that did not make it... so I'll try again.
Holding runners, even without throwing runners out, is of tremendous defensive value, and as soon as you mention the league figuring "out they can't run on his arm, that sounds like what you are talking about. The best outfield arms often do not lead the league in outfield assists.
Who knows, maybe some GM out there thinks he can catch twice a week. I don't think he's going to fetch anything huge when he's dealt, but it should certainly be more than negligible.
My hope with Contreras and Schwarber has always been then the Cubs can use the two of them in something of a rotation at catcher and LF, giving the primary catcher enough time playing the OF that his hands stayed fresh for hitting over the course of the season instead of getting beaten and bruised over the course of a full season of catching that the hitting performance seriously declined toward the end of the season. And even two days a week catching for Schwarber would be enough to accomplish that, much the way Stengal in the Yankees' glory days with Berra and Elston Howard both allowed to put up much better hitting numbers than they ever would have as a full-time catcher.
So for me the hope is that the GM who thinks he can do that is Hoyer with the Cubs. If two years after his injury Schwarber is in fact again physically able to catch, he offers far more potential value to the Cubs than to other teams (at least partly because Contreras also has a fair amount of experience in LF to make such a rotation feasible), and therefore would not be likely to draw as much from other teams in a trade as the value he could add himself to the Cubs in 2019.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2h2 hours ago
Cubs award 68 full postseason shares, the most of any 2018 playoff team. Each full share worth $16,155.34. World Series champion Red Sox awarded 66 full shares ($416,837.72 per share), 10.025 partial shares, eight cash awards. Dodgers awarded 67 full shares ($262,027.49 per share
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Jon Greenberg has a nice article on Javy Baez, The Athletic's "Person of the Year."
https://theathletic.com/702440/2018/12/10/javier-baez-what-a-year-for-that-kid-who-made-cubs-baseball-fun/?source=weeklyemail
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Ron, thanks for passing on that link about Baez! Excellent!
Deeg, you better check this one out! You were the 1st to talk about Baez as MVP.
He was truly awesome last season!
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He was the biggest reason we won 95 despite regression and injuries.
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On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs. I don't think that's true, apart from merit.
The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder. If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot. Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS. But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell.
The larger question is merit. Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit. But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons. So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.
Perhaps Tulo wouldn't want to try to compete with Bote, Descalzo, Zobrist, and Russell to win that job. But I'd think that might be almost as accessible a starting job as their might be.
I think that given that Russell is suspended for a chunk of the season; that he's been a bad bad hitter for several years; that he too is repeatedly injured; and that his personal-life garbage makes it unclear whether the Cubs will keep him; I think all of that makes it pretty obvious that the 2nd middle-infield starting spot is very wide-open.
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On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs. I don't think that's true, apart from merit.
The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder. If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot. Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS. But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell.
The larger question is merit. Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit. But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons. So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.
Tulowitzky played in only one full season in Toronto. His first season was 2015 (183 AB), after being blind-sided and deeply upset by the trade from the Rockies. His only full season was following year, 2016, when he had an OPS of .761. He was injured in 2017 and played in only 66 games. I'm guessing his performance may have been related to his injury. His last full season before the trade (2014), he had an OPS of 1.035, and his OPS in 2015 before the trade was .818. Who knows what kind of player he'd be in 2019 and beyond, but I don't think his performance with the Blue Jays should necessarily preclude the potential for him to perform well going forward.
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Seems like Tulo’s career path might be similar to Garciaparra. Both seemed like HOF locks until around age 30. Great players.
Thing to remember about Nomar is that he wasn’t really a SS anymore next phase of his career. That’s why Theo traded him to Cubs. Was hurt a lot with Cubs of course and then was a 1B before too long. Of course, same with Ernie Banks at similar age moving to 1B.
So, would not assume Tulo going to be a viable MIFer for remainder of his career, even if can hit.
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Ron, thanks for good points. I hadn't been looking very carefully at the volume.
I'm not suggesting he might not be able to contribute offensively. Maybe yes, maybe no? I don't know whether he might clear 100 OPS+, and don't imagine Hoyer knows either. I've got no problem with taking a shot; but wouldn't count on him being an asset bat.
Uncertainty goes with Russell, too. Not defensively: we know if he's healthy his defense will be *really* good. But bat-wise, he's been OPS+ 74-84-94-91. So who know whether he'll be on the 74 end or the 94 end of his career range? With pitchers having a full book on him by now, and his confidence shattered , I'd guess he's more likely to be nearer the 74 end than the 94 end, and maybe he'll continue to get worse each year. But who knows, maybe some miracle will happen and he'll have a career year and go >94, and maybe become only slightly below average as a hitter? Who knows? I don't, Hoyer doesn't, nobody does.
That 2nd middle-infield position is up for grabs, and we don't know how any of Tulo, Russell, Bote, Zobrist, Descalso, or even Happ will hit. Would be wrong to promise anything more than an opportunity to Tulo. But it's not like there isn't an opportunity.
The fact that Toronto waived him, despite dozens of committed millions, suggests they who know him and his health best aren't super optimistic that he'll be able to become a good hitter again. But if the Cubs feel otherwise, it's not like Russell is such a sure thing that they couldn't consider other take-a-shot alternatives.
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3:01 worth of Cubs 2018 highlights with Statcast numbers for each
https://www.mlb.com/video/best-of-statcast-cubs/c-2521474183
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Sahadev Sharma has a new column about Baseball Prospectus' new offensive stat: DRC+.
https://theathletic.com/735357/2018/12/27/how-one-new-statistic-values-the-2018-cubs-differently/?source=dailyemail
If I understand the column correctly, according to DRC+, Schwarber (38th among players) ranks higher than Baez (45th) for 2018. Is that a correct reading, and if so, is there anyone who honestly believes Schwarber was a better offensive player than Baez in 2018?
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It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat can’t capture yet.
I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.
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It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat can’t capture yet.
I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.
Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance. It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to Baez'. Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.
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Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance. It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to Baez'. Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.
It depends what you want in a stat.
If you’re looking for insight into future performance—rather than what results the player actually achieved in 2018—then perhaps it’s going to be useful to look at a “deserved driven” stat.
Everybody wants to peek into the future or to win their fantasy baseball league or whatever. Think that a stat like this is based on that sensibility. Don’t know if it’s going to be successful for that purpose going forward, but don’t think a stat like this necessarily tells you accurately “what happened” in 2018.
Obviously, it’s absurd to say that Schwarber had a better 2018 offensive season than Baez. Nobody is going to buy that. But, maybe useful that, going forward, Schwarber could be better? or close?
I’ve been spending a lot of time lately reading up on historical player performance. In that respect, don’t really care much for predictive-type stats, such as pitcher FIP, for players whose career is long finished. For me, that’s just a curiosity and not a measurement of actual performance. So, think it would be unfortunate if predictive-type atats are ever used for career evaluation.
But, maybe different for ongoing careers. Remains to be seen.