Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Archives => Topic started by: Dave23 on May 28, 2018, 05:38:03 pm
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Hoping we get some future studs...
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Davep is a whiner.
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Cubs have five selections in the first one hundred.
24, 62, 77, 78, 98
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Mayo has the Cubs taking Sean Hjelle, a 6’11” RHP from Univ. of Kentucky.
TSN has us taking Connor Scott, a 6’4” CFer from Plant (FL) HS. Speed and defense guy with no pop.
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Others I have seen projected include Trevor Larnach, an OFer from Oregon State, and two GA HS pitchers, Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker.
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Cubs have five selections in the first one hundred.
24, 62, 77, 78, 98
And they need them.
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Davep is a whiner.
You must have been some teacher. Once again, you spelled winner wrong.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 14m14 minutes ago
HOF Andre Dawson will represent the #Cubs Monday on 1st day of @MLBDraft
I hope Manfred says it is the twenty-eighteen draft instead of two-thousand-and-eighteen.
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From Baseball America's draft preview - and their discussion on right handed HS pitchers. Since 2003, HS righties picked in the top 10 have a lower career average WAR than those picked 11-20, 21-30, and 41-50.
"Even though it keeps not working, we're obsessed with 18-year old kids throwing 96-99. It's safe right? The kid is probably huge, he's throwing 100, he shows up on the field. It's going to be very difficult for anybody to be like, 'This is a ridiculous pick.' Some 6'5" dude throws one bullet at 100 and everyone in player development (and on this site) is happy. But we have the data. We have the history. We know that shouldn't be the reaction."
.... "It's just the safe factor", the cross-checker said. "You pop someone and they to out to short-season and the game report comes back 88-92 and he pitches 5 innings and gives up three runs, it's uncomfortable.
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Anyone have access to Keith Law’s mock draft?
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/
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Virginia pitchers scare me.
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I'd like to see the Cubs give this guy a shot in one of the later rounds
9. Ryan Tapani, RHP, Creighton (BA Rank: )
4YR • R-Sr. • 6-0 • 190 • R-R • Never Drafted
Creighton's Friday starter, the son of big league pitcher Kevin Tapani, has solid feel for pitching and an 88-92 mph fastball.
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He looks like a good 7-8-9 round choice that they can sign fora few thousand bucks, putting the slot money towards a high school flier.
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I'd like to see the Cubs give this guy a shot in one of the later rounds
9. Ryan Tapani, RHP, Creighton (BA Rank: )
4YR • R-Sr. • 6-0 • 190 • R-R • Never Drafted
Creighton's Friday starter, the son of big league pitcher Kevin Tapani, has solid feel for pitching and an 88-92 mph fastball.
I'd like to not feel so old when I read stuff like that.
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Actually that scouting report fits his dad's profile pretty well.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De3FRo4W0AAC5CU.jpg:small)
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CurtOne feels old when he reads the Bible.
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Actually that scouting report fits his dad's profile pretty well.
And getting a player the caliber of his father in anything after the 5th round is a big plus.
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Dang it....COL just took Rollison out of Ole Miss...i was hoping the cubs would get a chance at him
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Hankins Kowar and Mclanahan available.
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At work, hard to follow... Anyone mysteriously slipping who'd be a coup?
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Cubs get Nico Hoerner SS Stanford
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Stanford SS Nico Hoerner.
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Wow... That feels like a huge reach.
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https://twitter.com/carlosacollazo/status/1003811689450627080
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https://twitter.com/dmccomasob/status/1003812349776625664
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Very hard to get enthused on that one. No power, probably can't stick at SS, sounds like a RH LaStella.
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Nico Hoerner is said to be the consummate team player, who is a very slick fielder and solid bat. Some scouts say he's the type of fielder, athlete and personality who could move around the diamond and add versatility, which is increasingly important with shifts.
His parents are both teachers...his dad at a distinguished private school east of San Francisco and his mother on the faculty at U of California-Berkeley. That he's at Stanford says something about his intellect, too.
His coaches agree - it's not a matter of IF he gets to the majors, it's a matter of when.
Of course, after selecting Almora-Bryant-Schwarber-Happ in R1 of consecutive drafts, we could assume our FO would select a solid player and person. That the selection before Almora was Javy Freaking Baez shows that Hendry/Wilken could make a great pick, too.
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Cubs apparently feel they can likely help Hoerner grow toward the type of power Happ has developed.
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Good pick! Sharp young man.
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The new market inefficiency?
Players who can actually hit?
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Anytime the second paragraph about a draft pick begins with mentioning that both of his parents are teachers....
Well, there are other picks left.
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Cubs care most about one stat - winning...and Hoerner sure sounds like the type of player who is all about that.
That he's an outstanding athlete who has excelled against excellent competition and is a smart, strong student makes him like Almora, Bryant and Happ and it's obvious Schwarber is a very smart, team-oriented guy, too.
Hoerner was selected at #24, not top 10, so we shouldn't expect him to grow into one of our top-10 studs! However, we probably can expect he will contribute mightily when his time occurs! Our current FO makes damn few important mistakes! (and way fewer than other teams!
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I wonder if he and the Cubs agreed to a below-slot deal prior to his selection.
Some really nice college arms still on the board...
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Here's what McLeod says about Hoerner (on Cubs website):
"Nico is a talented middle infielder who handles the bat extremely well, hits to all fields and has a high contact rate. He hits the ball hard, and we think there is more power to come," said Jason McLeod, Cubs senior vice president of scouting and player development.
"He has multiple tools on the field, and all the background work we did shows he has incredible make-up. He fits exactly what we're looking for in the organization."
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Carrie Muskat
@CarrieMuskat
#Cubs McLeod says expects more power from @nico_hoerner and that he has elite hand-eye coordination
Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Stanford coach David Esquer was a minor league infielder in the Angels organization when Cubs manager Joe Maddon was a hitting instructor. "Joe is going to love what Nico is all about," Esquer said.
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Here's more from Esquer:
Stanford head coach David Esquer liked the situation. Will Matthiessen’s two-run homer had tied the score 5-5 in the ninth inning of the regular-season finale at Washington on Saturday.
Later in the inning, the Cardinal had the bases loaded with two outs.
“If it had to come down to this,” Esquer said he was thinking. “I’m completely happy with whatever happens.”
That’s because Nico Hoerner was at the plate. The junior shortstop is expected to be a high pick in next week’s MLB draft not just because of his .349 average and his slick fielding. It’s because of his will to succeed.
Sure enough, he beat out a slow roller to third base, and the decisive run scored in a 6-5 win that gave the Cardinal their first Pac-12 title since 2004.
“Nobody wants to win as much for the team as much as Nico does,” Esquer said. “I’ve had a lot of great players but haven’t had as good a team player who was really willing to accept all his personal results with the one focus being on: ‘I just want this team to win as many games as possible and do what I can to help them win.’”
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Hawk Harrelson’s scouting grade: TWTW 80
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Royals take Bubic...that's 4 college pitchers for them in the first 40 picks...
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The draft system is so messed up. The Indians and Cards clearly need competitive balance picks.
Pads basically paid a 10x premium for the Twins’ balance pick, meaning the free value to Cle and Stl is somewhere in the neighborhood of $16 to $17M...
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Hoerner's HR power has been increasing: 0 > 1 > 2.
Not much speed.
Not sure how good the defense projects.
Wonder if he might project to be something of a Ryan Theriot? (Maybe Ryan-Theriot-at-his-best?) Theriot had an 8-year, 6.7 WAR career, hit .281. We may not have the best memories, but prime-Theriot had a .745 OPS one year and hit 7 HR's the next, with .387 and .345 OBP. *IF* you had a guy who could do that for longer than two years, that might be a good pick.
Maybe poor comp; Theriot walked a lot, plus regularly stole 20+ bases. Hoerner doesn't walk, and obviously doesn't have that kind of speed.
Deeg mentioned RH LaStella.... If LaStella could play a good SS/2B, I'd love to have that.
But, LaStella is kind of amazing as hitter, pretty sure not getting that.
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Wow, Royals take Jonathan Bowlan at 58...5 college pitchers.
He had an 18 K game earlier this season. My son played against him quite a bit.
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2 (62) - Brennen Davis - OF - Basha HS (AZ)
6'4", 175 R/R
#146 prospect on mlb.com
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Davis has a Miami commitment, sounds like a very toolsy long-term project. 70 runner with a very strong arm and potential to hit for both average and power.
Adam Jones / Lewis Brinson comps if everything goes as dreamed...
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Cubs care most about one stat - winning...and Hoerner sure sounds like the type of player who is all about that.
Yeah, that's worked a treat for GarPax.
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2 (62) - Brennen Davis - OF - Basha HS (AZ)
6'4", 175 R/R
#146 prospect on mlb.com
Another reach.
Craig, every report I've read says Nico is a 2B - can't stick at SS.
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Fangraphs grades
Hoerner hit 35/55 (present at MLB level/future), game power 30/40, raw 50/50, speed 70/70, field 45/50, arm 50/50. Ranked #37
Davis hit 20/40, game power 20/55, raw 50/60, run 50/60, field 40/55 arm 55/60. Longenhagen tweeted he wants $1.2-1.5 million. Hit tool is scary. Ranked #81.
Hoerner might benefit from a Daniel Murphy swing change. I was hoping for some one with more upside but a 70 runner that can hit is a nice starting point. Davis seems to be a boom or bust guy.
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2c (77) - Cole Roederer - OF - Hart HS (CA)
6'0", 175 lbs. L/L
UCLA commit
More raw tools...
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2c (78) - Paul Richan - RHP - San Diego
6'3", 200
#175 on mlb.com
4-6, 4.62 on season, upside is a #4 or #5 starter per mlb.com
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Hoerner sounds like a Lemahieu with speed.
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I can get behind the raw, toolsy OFs, especially after the safe pick of Horner, but a college pitcher with an ERA over 4.5? Obvs, ERA isn’t everything, but when college hitters score off you that often, what about pros?
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Hoerner's writeup at mlb says that he runs 'fairly well, but isn't overly fluid in his actions'...that doesn't sound like 70/70 to me?
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Pretty meh day on paper.
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On paper, we greatly overdrafted 4 kids...I hope the brass have seen something everyone else hasn't...
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On paper, we greatly overdrafted 4 kids...I hope the brass have seen something everyone else hasn't...
As good as this admin has been on the big league side, I think one could argue their draft track record has been middling at best. Bryant was a home run, but pretty much a slam dunk. Schwarber is a pick they deserve a lot of credit for. But who else? Cease, maybe? At least as a trade chip.
Edit: Well, there's Almora too - forgot about him.
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Hoerner's writeup at mlb says that he runs 'fairly well, but isn't overly fluid in his actions'...that doesn't sound like 70/70 to me?
MLB.com grades are routinely questionable. The run grade measures strictly speed and the 1B time for a right handed hitter of 4.13 would be consistent with 70 speed. If LaStella had 50 speed and a 50 arm he’d be an all star.
Finding players outside of the 1st round is hard and got even harder without being able to throw more money at high schoolers. I’ll take the Cubs scouts over other decision makers, especially since we don’t know what these kids are signing for and what the Cubs have planned for later. That said they’ve still produced major leaguers outside of the first round and some interesting prospects as well even if they aren’t star level players.
I mean Theo Cubs first round picks have produced 6.8 fWAR for the Cubs this year.
Just to put that into context 6.8 fWAR would tie them for 16th in MLB position player fWAR for teams.
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I’ll take the Cubs scouts over other decision makers
I'd like to agree with you, but I'd be accused of being a management shill.
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Well, around here it always comes back to "those guys are really smart, so who are you to question them?" Not much of an argument to begin with, and I don't know how much use it is in terms of stimulating a discussion.
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https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1003815149793247232 (https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1003815149793247232)
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Maybe Hoerner is a "Maybe we shouldn't have traded D.J. LeMahieu" kind of pick?
College bats seem so dead now too. Maybe projecting more power isn't an overenthusiastic thing?
I think LeMahieu is probably what a guy like Hoerner sounds like to me.
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Dan Plesac on the Rays first pick
"He has the potential for a lot of upside"
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Or what DaveP said ... can't believe I'm actually saying that by the way.
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Blah on Richan. Apparently he’s signing for slot too.
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As good as this admin has been on the big league side, I think one could argue their draft track record has been middling at best. Bryant was a home run, but pretty much a slam dunk. Schwarber is a pick they deserve a lot of credit for. But who else? Cease, maybe? At least as a trade chip.
Edit: Well, there's Almora too - forgot about him.
Bryant may have been obvious, but Appel was “obvious” that year, too. In the meantime, the Cubs have struck gold with all their other 1st round picks, as Almora, Schwarber, and Happ are seriously good young players. That’s not something to take for granted, and not all those picks were “obvious.” I’d wager a fair amount that the Cub drafts of the past 7 years have been *far* more productive than most of the rest of MLB.
Outside of the draft, the Cubs have also done an amazing job in the intl market: Contreras, Torres, Jimenez, Soler, etc... both under Hendry and now under Theo the Cubs have done a fantastic job of identifying and developing amateur hitting talent.
Now if we could just figure out pitching...
All this to say that I would strongly disagree with the idea that Cub draft results have been middling, and I’m all but certain the numbers back me up here.
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Blah on Richan. Apparently he’s signing for slot too.
Yeah, Richan is the one I don’t get at all.
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Hoerner's stats in last year's Cape Cod league:
.300, 7 2B, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 13 BB, 16 K, 15 SB, .812 OPS, (160 AB)
And his spray chart which suggests he hits the ball everywhere:
http://pointstreak.com/baseball/player_spray_chart.html?playerid=1115789
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Hoerner's HR power has been increasing: 0 > 1 > 2.
Not much speed.
Not sure how good the defense projects.
Wonder if he might project to be something of a Ryan Theriot? (Maybe Ryan-Theriot-at-his-best?) Theriot had an 8-year, 6.7 WAR career, hit .281. We may not have the best memories, but prime-Theriot had a .745 OPS one year and hit 7 HR's the next, with .387 and .345 OBP. *IF* you had a guy who could do that for longer than two years, that might be a good pick.
Maybe poor comp; Theriot walked a lot, plus regularly stole 20+ bases. Hoerner doesn't walk, and obviously doesn't have that kind of speed.
Deeg mentioned RH LaStella.... If LaStella could play a good SS/2B, I'd love to have that.
But, LaStella is kind of amazing as hitter, pretty sure not getting that.
Darwin Barney with twice the power and half the speed?
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The pitcher is the puzzling pick.
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Richan had a K/BB of 101/13 over 89 2/3 innings this season, with a fastball topping in the mid 90s. Perhaps they see a guy with great command who has ML potential if he can develop another effective pitch.
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Those guys (our front office) are really smart...who are we to question them?
Finally - after more than a century of less than stellar organizational management - we have leaders who deserve the benefit of the doubt because of the almost unbelievably FANTASTIC results they've produced leading the Cubs.
There's also this reality: they do what they do for a living, know WAY more about baseball than any of us, AND they have about 100 times more information than any of us. So the smart money goes with our front office re the decisions they make at the time they are made.
But counter opinions are always welcome here and will, occasionally, be correct. No front office will ever get all of their thousands of decisions right.
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I wonder if he and the Cubs agreed to a below-slot deal prior to his selection.
Some really nice college arms still on the board...
If so, you KNOW with our FO that it is all part of a brilliant plan to bring further championships and prolonged league dominance for our fine warriors in blue!
sorry if I don't quite have ben's rah-rah style quite mastered yet....
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Richan had a K/BB of 101/13 over 89 2/3 innings this season, with a fastball topping in the mid 90s. Perhaps they see a guy with great command who has ML potential if he can develop another effective pitch.
He was a reliever to starter conversion for SDSU and apparently lost some stuff as the season went on and had some bad games towards the end of season that made his overall numbers worse. As weird as it sounds a fastball topping out in the mid nineties for a righty is pretty league average now.
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Hoerner's HR power has been increasing: 0 > 1 > 2.
Not much speed.
Not sure how good the defense projects.
Wonder if he might project to be something of a Ryan Theriot? (Maybe Ryan-Theriot-at-his-best?) Theriot had an 8-year, 6.7 WAR career, hit .281. We may not have the best memories, but prime-Theriot had a .745 OPS one year and hit 7 HR's the next, with .387 and .345 OBP. *IF* you had a guy who could do that for longer than two years, that might be a good pick.
Maybe poor comp; Theriot walked a lot, plus regularly stole 20+ bases. Hoerner doesn't walk, and obviously doesn't have that kind of speed.
Deeg mentioned RH LaStella.... If LaStella could play a good SS/2B, I'd love to have that.
But, LaStella is kind of amazing as hitter, pretty sure not getting that.
I was a huge early supporter of Theriot and had hopes that that Hawk Harrelson will to win, and what appeared to be his intelligence, would help him produce far more in the majors than his minor league performance indicated we should have expected. My hopes proved far less than warranted, and then his later post-Chicago comments even called into serious question his intelligence, but all of that said, he ended up with an almost 900 game major league career, with a WAR of 6.7, which actually is a bit better than average for the overall 24th pick, so if Hoerner is that good, we should be happy. (In Theriot's case, as a 3rd rounder, that output was extremely good.)
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There's also this reality: they do what they do for a living, know WAY more about baseball than any of us, AND they have about 100 times more information than any of us. So the smart money goes with our front office re the decisions they make at the time they are made.
But counter opinions are always welcome here and will, occasionally, be correct. No front office will ever get all of their thousands of decisions right.
Actually, the "smart money" on virtually all draft picks would be to bet against the pick being close to as good as at least ten other alternatives.
That is the nature of decisions. MOST decisions by most people or bodies, whether in the case of draft picks or pretty much any thing else at any level an in any field of endeavor, are wrong, in that better options were available and were not chosen. This is not to say that the decisions cause harm or are counterproductive or do no good, but simply that they were not close to being as good as other options.
So second-guessing is to be expected, and quite often can even appear to display considerable wisdom. The reality is that if those looking brilliant in pointing out the errors of others had themselves been making the decisions, they most certainly in most cases would be making similar decisions of their own, just as bad, and possibly worse.
So the "smart money" really is NOT with the front office on any one particular decision. On the big picture, overall, however, ben is right, that this Front Office has an excellent track record, and the odds are that overall those decisions are likely to do quite well compared to those of the rest of MLB.
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Richan's 3-year college numbers: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=201425
He started most of last year too, and has zero saves. So I'm not sure the reliever-starter thing isn't kinda typical for a college pitcher. Limited relief work as freshman, start a bunch as sophomore, inherit Friday-night-starter role as Junior.
Here are some scouting writeups on Richan:
"Richan was solid, if a bit unspectacular, for San Diego this season, going 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He picked up 101 strikeouts as compared to a scant 13 walks, but was way too hittable, allowing 99 hits as well. He's a solid four-pitch pitcher with nothing overpowering, working in the 88-93 mph with his fastball along with a solid slider on most nights to go with a curveball and changeup, both of which can be thrown for strikes."
"Junior righthander Paul Richan has a strong and sturdy, 6-foot-3, 200-pound build. He’s been used as a weekend starter this year after coming out of the bullpen in previous seasons and has shown good stuff with promising results, including a 42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33 innings of work. However, he didn’t have his best performance against Santa Clara at Fowler Park in mid-March, allowing five earned runs on 10 base hits, although he did strike out eight in his seven innings of work while moving to 1-3 on the year.
"Working rom the first base side of the rubber with a direct stride to home plate, Richan’s fastball worked in the 89-91 mph range, touching 92-93 several times while running his fastball to the arm-side corner. He also has the ability to cut the pitch in on lefthanded hitters. He also throws both a curveball and a slider with feel for both pitches. The curveball sat in the upper-70s, hanging one late in the game that was hit for a home run. The slider has late action in the low-80s and he also throws a solid changeup, maintaining his arm speed well on the pitch, which has good fade and sink."
Those reports, working 89-91, and working in the 88-93 range, would seem to profile him in the finesse below-average velocity mode that the Cubs seem to typically pick up.
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I wonder if they feel confident they can make some mechanical tweaks and unlock more velo.
Current package is not inspiring at all, and would not seem to indicate 2nd rounder. But if you add 3mph to the fastball, all of a sudden a guy who can control 4 average or better pitches with mid 90’s velo, that’s potential #3 upside. If any of the secondaries are plus, squint hard and maybe there’s a #2, assuming added velo?
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BA on Richan,
"Scouting Report: Richan supplanted Nick Sprengel as San Diego’s top starter and most-desired draft prospect this spring, launched in part by a dominant outing against Michigan at the Tony Gwynn Classic. Richan is a polished righthander with a four-pitch mix, headlined by a plus slider. At his best, Richan’s fastball sits 91-92 mph and touches 94, and he can mix in an average changeup as well. He uses his fastball and changeup to get ahead and then finishes batters with his slider. Richan tired as the season went on and sat more 88-91 mph toward the end, cooling some of the early interest. His fastball command also slipped at the end of the season and resulted in a lot of contact, although he still threw strikes. A poor finish made his season numbers look pedestrian, but Richan showed evaluators enough early in the year that they still consider him a talent worthy of a pick in the top five rounds."
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BA ranks:
Brennen Davis - 133
Cole Roederer - 161
Paul Richan - 164
PG ranks:
Brennen Davis - 145
Cole Roederer - 162
Paul Richan - 335
MLB ranks:
Brennen Davis - 145Cole Roederer - unrankedPaul Richan - 175
Pretty obviously Cubs have their own scouts and don't pay tons of attention to perspectives of PG or BA.
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BA writeup on Roederer:
*They say he will be an expensive sign. Not sure that's pertinent. They ranked him in the 160's; 2nd-round slot might seem expensive for a 6th-round guy.
*They do talk about 3rd-round consideration before getting injured again.
*I think I read he hit .394. That doesn't seem very high, for a high-school prospect? Yet scouting reports seem to like his hitting. Who knows. (I recall wondering about this with Vitters, too. Super nice scouting reports on his swing, yet he didn't hit .400 in HS.....)
"School: Hart HS, Santa Clarita, Calif.
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-L | Commit/Drafted: UCLA
Scouting Report: Roederer is a small, athletic, lefthanded-hitting center fielder who began showing big power this year, drawing comparisons to Andrew Benintendi. He catapulted into third-round consideration before he separated his right (non-throwing) shoulder horsing around with teammates after practice and missed the final month of the season. Roederer is a toolsy player with bat speed who got stronger and reworked his swing to add power this season. He began launching long home runs on par with anyone in the region, enough for optimistic scouts to project him as a 20-25 home run hitter. The power rounded out Roederer’s well-rounded toolset. He is an above-average runner whose speed plays up in center field due to his advanced instincts and reads, and his arm is suitably average. With hints of all five tools and growing power, Roederer has the upside of an above-average everyday center fielder, but other scouts are skeptical of his size and injury history, which also includes a pulled hamstring this year. He is strongly committed to UCLA and will be an expensive sign."
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Or what DaveP said ... can't believe I'm actually saying that by the way.
Don't worry. Even snot nosed brats eventually grow up and become adults
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Nothing tricky going on in terms of $$-for-today.
#Cubs pick Paul Richan: "I was watching the draft on TV, and it was kind of hectic. My advisor called me like a minute before the pick happened. He asked if I would take [slot] money. I agreed to it. Within 30 seconds my name popped up on the board, and I was extremely excited."
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Via Instagram, Cole Roederer: "Outfielder in the Chicago Cubs Organization." 00:10 - 5 Jun 2018
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Per Josh White, Sports Director at WVUM 90.5 FM, 2nd round #MLBDraft pick Brennen Davis "is expected to sign with the #Cubs." 00:23 - 5 Jun 2018
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No surprises on any of these, I don't think. Cubs are always calling and talking in advance, so I think pretty much other than 1st rounders, they pretty much know where they are at.
Is Hoerner's season done? Or are they College-World-Series team that will take a while?
Given that Davis is raw, and Roederer missed a month, I wonder if both of those guys would kinda like to get started quickly and get max development time this summer still? As opposed to the old days, when HS guys would generally negotiate till the the deadline...
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*I think I read he hit .394. That doesn't seem very high, for a high-school prospect? Yet scouting reports seem to like his hitting. Who knows. (I recall wondering about this with Vitters, too. Super nice scouting reports on his swing, yet he didn't hit .400 in HS.....)
Interestingly, Roederer and Richan both went to the same high school in the Los Angeles area. Hart HS has also produced several major leaguers including Trevor Bauer, Mike Montgomery, James Shields, Tyler Glasnow, Pat Valaika, Kevin Millar, Todd Zeile, and Bob Walk. Who knows if .394 is a good average in their league, but it's probably fair to say their high school knows how to produce major leaguers.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-high-school-sports-updates-chicago-cubs-select-consecutive-hart-1528170957-htmlstory.html
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Shoulder injuries can take awhile to heal up so even if Roederer plays poor results wouldn't be a shock to me.
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craig, Stanford has been eliminated from the NCAA Baseball Tournament.
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*I think I read he hit .394. That doesn't seem very high, for a high-school prospect? Yet scouting reports seem to like his hitting. Who knows. (I recall wondering about this with Vitters, too. Super nice scouting reports on his swing, yet he didn't hit .400 in HS.....)
Actually I was just flipping through his high school's MaxPreps page, and it looks like they play in the same area as Vitters's old high school. They actually lost to Vitters's old high school Cypress in their sectional tournament to finish their season.
.394 with 7 homers did make Roederer easily the most productive hitter on his team by the way. They had another hitter with 3 homers, and only three other players hit one homer all season.
http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/hart-indians-(newhall,ca)/baseball/stats.htm
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Thanks, JR. That's helpful context. And thanks P2, that Stanford is done.
In terms of signing speed, any of the guys who are slot or under, they can be signed right away. But *IF* Davis is overslot, then I'd imagine he'd need to wait until there is enough overage and/or underslot cash freed up to make it work. No way they're going to sign a guy and go into tax mode.
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I guess in terms of tossing your Baseball America subscription aside, if you scout a guy as having Andrew Benintendi tools/upside and he plays in a quality baseball league for a high school program that has a very good recent history of producing quality major leaguers, it's probably not hard to see why someone would see Roederer as a player worth taking in the 2nd supplemental round.
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The Angels just drafted a guy named Aaron Hernandez. Boy that's an unfortunate name for a kid to have.
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The Cubs take CF Jimmy Herron from Duke in Round 3.
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Herron has good speed, but the outfielder will need Tommy John surgery on his arm. He had a standout performance in the Cape Cod League last season (.338/.443/.481 with 10 doubles and four home runs in 42 games). He shows potential at the plate, but the pop in his bat is a question mark.
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3 (98) - Jimmy Herron - CF - Duke
6'1, 195 - R/L
Good speed, but needs TJS...did well at the Cape last season, question marks re: future pop...
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The Angels just drafted a guy named Aaron Hernandez. Boy that's an unfortunate name for a kid to have.
I think of others: Justin Riddick, Dave Pol, Al Capone, Judas Iscariot, Bill Cosby
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CurtOne feels old when he reads the Bible.
I don't read the Bible. I proofread it.
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Heh, Cole Liniak's nephew just got drafted at the top of Round 4...
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The Cubs take RHP Ethan Roberts from Tennessee Tech in Round 4.
No MLB scouting report on him apparently. Tennessee Tech was really good in baseball this year, though. Actually they're still playing Ole Miss in the regionals right now.
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Reliever who appeared in 26 games. 6-1, 2.41 ERA, 14 SV, 71 IP, 61 H, 20 BB, 96 K, 4 HRA
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They eliminated Ole Miss yesterday. Led the nation in HR's by a wide margin, and had a great winning %...46-9 or so on the season.
Roberts is their closer, had 14 saves this year. Best pitch is cutter, gets it up to 92 or so...could move quickly.
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This is from Bleacher Nation.
Pick 128 – Ethan Roberts, RHP, Tennessee Tech. Roberts is a 5’11”, 170 lb junior, and he does not show up on BA’s top 500. He pitched in relief this year, putting up silly numbers for a very good college team. The Cubs clearly must like him, either a convert to the rotation, or as a pure reliever (in which case they must really, really like him). You tend not to see huge slot savings on college juniors in this range, so I wouldn’t necessarily bank on that, but his profile doesn’t necessarily seem like that of a full-slot fourth rounder. Interestingly, he was just moved into the rotation to help keep the team’s season alive in the NCAA Tournament, and pitched well.
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I think of others: Justin Riddick, Dave Pol, Al Capone, Judas Iscariot, Bill Cosby
Wasn't Judas your childhood friend?
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Last year there was a website that listed all the Cubs draftees, and had almost daily updates on scouting reports, signing rumors, signing status, etc. Does anyone know who it was, and if they will have it again, and if it has started?
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Last year there was a website that listed all the Cubs draftees, and had almost daily updates on scouting reports, signing rumors, signing status, etc. Does anyone know who it was, and if they will have it again, and if it has started?
It exists again, but in a different, less friendly, format. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/edit#gid=451339458
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The Cubs take U of Virginia 2B Andy Weber in Round 5.
.344/.415/.536 slash line with 22 BB, 32 K, and 5 HR in 209 AB. Easily the best Virginia hitter this past season. Third team All-American by Collegiate Baseball.
http://www.virginiasports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2017-2018/teamcume.html
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5 (158) - Andy Weber - 2B - Virginia
some power, .344/.415/.536 this season...offensive minded 2Bman who can also play 2B defense...
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Virgina in addition to making their pitchers do the squat they make their hitter do a version of the old Stanford swing. Not a fan of drafting their players.
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Thanks, jhawk. I appreciate the information. Hopefully, it will prove as useful as it has been in the past.
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6 (188) - Kohl Franklin - RHP - Broken Arrow HS (OK)
6'4", 190 - born 9/9/99 - Nephew of Ryan Franklin, best HS prospect in OK this year, up to 93 with FB, nice frame, classic projectionable pitcher, dad is an agent, went to same HS as Archie Bradley
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Kind of a cool background for 6th round RHP Kohl Franklin from an Oklahoma HS.
Broken Arrow's Kohl Franklin may be the next big name to come from the Tiger baseball program. Franklin is an OU commit...and points to an assistant coach as a big reason for his decision.
"I had a relationship with some of the coaches, like Clay Overcash,” Franklin says. “He was a scout for the White Sox, and I played with him a lot during the summers. And it just felt like home, and that's what I was looking for, pretty much."
Kohl isn't the only D-1 player in the area, but what makes him unique is his family. His uncle, Ryan Franklin, is a world series champ and gold medalist. His dad Jay, a former pro, is an agent for the likes of Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy.
"Just a great baseball family,” coach Shannon Dobson says. “You know, he's come up, surrounded by a lot of guys that have had that experience, and can kind of tell him what he needs to do, where he needs to be, and as far as his work, and how he needs to progress."
Coach Dobson has seen his fair share of major league talent...and he compares Kohl to some of the best.
"Jacob Evans, and of course Archie Bradley, and guys like that. There's a good chance we'll see him playing professionally."
And how does Kohl feel about that?
"Ever since I could start playing baseball, I've wanted to make it to the MLB. It feels great. And it just makes me look back on all those times I was sitting there thinking this is so hard. It just shows that it's all paid off."
http://ktul.com/sports/high-school/broken-arrows-kohl-franklin-the-next-big-thing
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Major league pitching standouts Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy and Michael Fulmer watched as Broken Arrow pitcher Kohl Franklin signed with the University of Oklahoma on Wednesday.
Franklin is the son of Jay Franklin, who is the agent for those major leaguers, and is the nephew of former St. Louis Cardinals all-star reliever Ryan Franklin.
Also at the signing were other pro players -- Bobby Bundy, Jacob Evans, Adrian Houser, Matt Oberste and Logan Taylor.
Bradley and Evans are Broken Arrow graduates.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/pro-baseball-high-schools-major-leaguers-gather-for-broken-arrow/article_3569eb8f-e220-5ee9-8215-4e91837ec40c.html
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Ethan Roberts, RHP
R/R, 5'11 170, Age 20
Tennessee Tech
COLLEGE JR
Area Scout: Alex McClune
COMMENT: Golden Eagles closer who often throws 2-3 innings per outing... Has been one of the top relievers in college baseball this season...
This seems to be a minor strategy of this front office. Drafting a successful college reliever, regardless of "stuff". Didn't we see similar comments for Dakota Mekkes, David Berg and Preston Morrison? And perhaps others.
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Im as dumb with these kids who Ive never heard of as I am with politics but I am glad to see we drafted a college kid in the first round.
There are just too many question marks with high school kids to invest a 1st round pick in when you can get a much more polished prospect out of the college kids.
Hoerner doesnt strike me as anything special though but what could you expect that late in the 1st round?
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This seems to be a minor strategy of this front office. Drafting a successful college reliever, regardless of "stuff". Didn't we see similar comments for Dakota Mekkes, David Berg and Preston Morrison? And perhaps others.
Morrison was a starter in college.
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Im as dumb with these kids who Ive never heard of as I am with politics but I am glad to see we drafted a college kid in the first round.
There are just too many question marks with high school kids to invest a 1st round pick in when you can get a much more polished prospect out of the college kids.
Baez, Russell and Almora might disagree.
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Baez, Russell and Almora might disagree.
As I have pointed out, if a 24th draft pick gets you a career WAR of 8, he is above the curve, actually well above it, and a career WAR of 8 is just a slight bit better than a Ryan Theriot.
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I always like it when the Cubs draft the son of a former MLB player. Especially one that formerly played for the Cubs.
But this isn't exactly what I had in mind.
12th ROUND (368)
Cam Sanders, RHP
R/R, 6'2 175, Age 21
LSU
COLLEGE JR
Area Scout: Chris Clemons
COMMENT: RP/SP "swingman"... 1-0 with 5.61 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, 24 hits allowed (one HR) with 23/44 BB/K in 33.2 IP (17 games - 3 GS) for Tigers in 2018... Spent freshman season at Northwest Florida JC... Was selected by San Diego Padres in 18th round of 2017 draft but did not sign... Two-sport player in HS (played point guard on his HS basketball team)... Son of ex-MLB (and ex-Cubs) RHP Scott Sanders...
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Seems like the "Draft" thread is getting far less attention than in years past. I was pretty excited about the draft but have to admit that there are only a couple picks that seem to be interesting.
Hoerner seems like a likely MLB player though not a huge upside guy. Franklin, Artis and Mort in Rounds 6, 7 and 8 seem interesting.
Haven't looked at the Day 3 picks yet.
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John Arguello used to refer to Cubs Area Scout Billy Swope as the Cubs Superscout.
I don't know how many area scouts the Cubs have, but there has to be a fair amount. It is interesting, that of the 8 players selected in day two (rounds 3 through 10) 5 of them were at the recommendation of Billy Swope.
I wonder what his overall record is for the success of his recommendations over the years? I am sure that every scout has more losers than winners, because of the fact that the vast majority of draftees never even sniff the big leagues. But does his his record (he has been around for quite a while) stand out from the others?
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Out of the first 20 picks, only 4 HS guys, 1 CC.
Hoerner, Davis, Roederer, Herron, Franklin, Artis, Reynolds seem interesting to me.
Today the Cubs picked Riley Thompson, RHP, Lousiville. He throws tops out at 100, sits mid 90's with a decent breaking ball He has 1 TJS and a shoulder issue earlier in the year. His stats do not match his stuff, but he's maybe the most interesting pitcher so far. With the health issues I wonder if they will try him in the bullpen.
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Seems like the "Draft" thread is getting far less attention than in years past.
I kind of wonder if part of it is it's just tough to be creative in the draft when you're picking near the bottom or don't have a first rounder at all, which has been the case in recent seasons. When you don't have a ton of bonus pool money, it's tough to game the system to throw a million dollar offer at someone later in the draft. There certainly hasn't been much tricky going on in this draft. It's basically been take the best slot-value guys available, and those usually get kind of boring after a while.
Plus too, maybe from my years of following the draft, the guys who fall usually fall for good reason. I'm trying to think of the most successful later round picks the Cubs have had in the last 15-20 years, and it's tough to think of a lot of good names. Casey McGehee? Kyle Lohse? Geovany Soto? Jerry Blevins? Justin Bour? Are those our most successful later round picks from the Hendry era on? Except for Lohse, I think all of those guys were pretty conventional, slot value picks too. Nothing much sexy about most of them when we drafted them originally.
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Seems like the "Draft" thread is getting far less attention than in years past. I was pretty excited about the draft but have to admit that there are only a couple picks that seem to be interesting.
Hoerner seems like a likely MLB player though not a huge upside guy. Franklin, Artis and Mort in Rounds 6, 7 and 8 seem interesting.
Haven't looked at the Day 3 picks yet.
As someone famous surely once said, they don't play the games on paper. But on paper this is a strikingly uninspiring batch of picks, which is the main reason you're not seeing much traffic here, IMO.
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Agree, JR, not sure there's that much to process.
*Before the draft cap, there was tons to process and discuss, and you never new which late guys might get signed, or how much the team might be willing to spend.
*Now, you pretty much know they've got a pre-arrange with anybody they picked. So, signability is not a thing.
*That each of the HS guys already said they'd sign and have an agreement also kind of takes away much suspense.
*During Day 1, when the media rankings on guys were 50's for Horner taken at 24, and Mid-100's for the guys taken 60-80, I wondered if there might be some creative under-slotting going on, with some cool surprise Day 2. No.
*I think if more of the guys were more highly ranked and had more scouting reports and video out, that might also generate more discussion. But with Hoerner the only top-100 guy by media perspective, there maybe aren't as many gushy reports to post and discuss, either.
*Perhaps the Cubs approach to pitching also factors. Cubs tend to go for finesse breaking ball guys; I think big-velocity guys sometimes prompt more discussion board talk?
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Just did a quick check, and here are the most successful Cubs draft picks we signed from the 10th round onward since 1998 by WAR:
Geovany Soto 12.2 (2001)
Eric Hinske 7.8 (1998)
Randy Wells 7.5 (2002)
Jerry Blevins 5.9 (2004)
Justin Bour 4.5 (2009)
Zack Godley 3.0 (2013)
Blake Parker 2.6 (2006)
Casey McGehee 1.5 (2003)
Absolutely nothing sexy about any of those guys when we drafted them either. No superslot bonuses, no guys who fell due to signability or injury, etc. Just guys who overachieved and carved out some pretty respectable careers for themselves.
Basically guys fall late for a reason. The guys who have an injury concern usually turn out to be damaged goods when you get them. The guys who are really 2nd to 6th round talents who are demanding good 1st round money usually show why they aren't worth it. The guys with an attitude problem usually keep the attitude problem. Maybe in some ways that's why the later rounds of the draft have lost some interest for me over time. The guys who have amounted for something really don't look that interesting when you draft them. They just work their butts off and overachieve, and you don't start to notice them until they force you to.
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This is clearly a pure scouting draft. Well, I guess they all are. But it seems especially so.
*To me, Hoerner seems like a straightforward save conservative pick. But it's scouting that thinks there's some useful power in there, coming off a career-high with 2-college homers this season.
*The 2nd-round pitcher with the bad ERA, there's got to be some scouting perspective that past result is not the best predictor of future performance.
To me, the interest and the story of the draft is mostly about the two HS outfielders. If the Cubs miss on both of them, it's a big fail. Suppose Roederer never hits more than Matt Szczur or Hanneman? And Davis ends up hitting like DJ Wilson or Hanneman or Winfield Mallory, or Ryan Harvey without the power? Then it's going to be a fail.
But I think those are the two guys that the Cubs scouted, and liked, and really put all their scouting and dollar-wise chips in on. I don't really see where else their overage dollars and senior-sign money is going, it's pretty much all going to the HS outfielders. If you hit on either, much less both, it's a great draft. I'm really interesting and curious and enthused about those two guys. They are the story of this draft, pretty much.
Or, maybe Kohl Franklin is a bigger part of the story than I have imagined, and he's a big part too? Obviously money doesn't prove talent, otherwise little Dunston would be a player. But I'm going to be really interested to see how much overslot Franklin gets, and the OFers. It's probably dumb, but the more those guys are getting and the less Hoerner and Richan and picks 7-10 get, the more it reflects that the HSers are really where the Cubs set their scouting value.
If Franklin gets $250-300, it's one thing. If he gets $750, it means they are much more serious about him, which might be a good thing.
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I think this draft will rest on what Hoerner does, just like every other draft. The further you get away from the 1st pick the harder it is to find useful players.
Since the system is lacking in high end talent I was expecting some more high school guys.
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The draft is over: All 30 teams pass for 40 rounds. Luke Heimlich is not picked.
Good.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfC6rJUVAAAg4XG.jpg:small)
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I'd like to see the Cubs give this guy a shot in one of the later rounds
9. Ryan Tapani, RHP, Creighton (BA Rank: )
4YR • R-Sr. • 6-0 • 190 • R-R • Never Drafted
Creighton's Friday starter, the son of big league pitcher Kevin Tapani, has solid feel for pitching and an 88-92 mph fastball.
Ryan Tapani was picked by the Washington Nationals in the 21st round.
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Savermetrics@Savermetrics
77th overall #MLBDraft pick OF Cole Roederer: "I will be signing with the Chicago #Cubs and not be attending UCLA. I had a bottom dollar and they put their money in the price range that I wanted and when I heard my name, it was a done deal."
10:16 AM - Jun 6, 2018 (https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/1004381425439666176)
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The 2nd-round pitcher with the bad ERA, there's got to be some scouting perspective that past result is not the best predictor of future performance.
Just saw this from the Cubs.com draft review. I guess the Cubs saw Richard differently than the sort of blah scouting reports we saw earlier on his velocity.
Richan's fastball consistently reaches 94 mph, and he throws two breaking balls that generate a lot of swings and misses.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-focus-on-college-talent-in-2018-draft/c-280099668
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As someone famous surely once said, they don't play the games on paper. But on paper this is a strikingly uninspiring batch of picks, which is the main reason you're not seeing much traffic here, IMO.
I suspect someone famous also once pointed out that the paper you and the rest of us is looking at likely is not the same paper the draft team is looking at when it makes the picks.... which may be another reason you are not seeing much traffic here.
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Chicago Cubs
Link to Draft Selections
Stanford 2B Nico Hoerner (1) has plus-plus speed, great bat-to-ball ability, and sneaky power, but it’s unclear what up-the-middle position he plays and he doesn’t lift the ball much… Arizona prep CF Brennen Davis (2) is a classic power/speed lottery ticket with lots of risk on the contact… SoCal prep CF Cole Roederer (comp 2) had a late injury that dried up his market a bit, but he has great feel to hit and a shot to stay in center… San Diego RHP Paul Richan (comp 2) was likely an underslot play to sign the prep outfielders, has solid-average stuff and some moxie as a back-end/up-and-down type… Duke CF Jimmy Herron (3) has a football background and plus speed but a very flat swing path with little power… Virginia 2B Andy Weber (5) has an advanced feel to hit and is decent at second base, lacks power… Liberty CF D.J. Artis (7) has a very patient approach and is a plus runner who can play center but not a whole lot else. The Cubs draft someone like this every year… Virginia RHP Derek Casey (9) is a favorite senior sign of ours, with a good frame and good delivery. He also throws strikes and has average stuff… Southern Miss 3B Luke Reynolds (9) put up big numbers this year and could turn into a corner utility type… Louisville RHP Riley Thompson (11) has a truly electric arm, running his heater up to 99 mph, but the command and consistency have never been there. Mitchell Parker (28) is a prep lefty from New Mexico with upper-80s stuff, which plays better due to deception, and a good curveball.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/national-league-draft-recap/
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I have read every famous quote from every famous person, and no one has ever said "the paper you and the rest of us is looking at likely is not the same paper the draft team is looking at when it makes the picks"
One guy said, "don't be absurd", but although perhaps an adequate paraphrase, it is not the same as a quote.
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Arizona prep CF Brennen Davis (2) is a classic power/speed lottery ticket with lots of risk on the contact… SoCal prep CF Cole Roederer (comp 2) had a late injury that dried up his market a bit, but he has great feel to hit and a shot to stay in center…
Someone posted an article a while back about some of the testing the Cubs put their draft prospects through. I remember reading something about them testing Mookie Betts's hitting instincts and finding some elite pitch recognition traits that a lot of other teams wound up missing on.
I guess that's where I might have more optimism for the high school guys than the MLB or BA rankings had for them. If you judge a player as having plus tools (which is where everyone seemed to have them) and our internal testing shows plus instincts and plus character makeup, that probably justifiably moves a player up a few more notches than where the baseball publications have them. Like with Roederer, if he has possible Bientendi tools/upside that a lot of scouts apparently see and you combine the top notch high school coaching he's already gotten and he has first rate instincts/character grades that a player has to have for the Theocracy to draft him that high, that sounds like a legit supplemental second rounder to me. And apparently we liked Brennan Davis even better than that, or else we wouldn't have picked him first.
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Hoerner, Herron, and Weber sound quite a bit like a kid I know pretty well...
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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/18/neuroscouting-may-give-red-sox-heads-prospects-potential/EFBHR3zNdThk1NboRpNMHL/story.html
I think they did something similar with Schwarber.
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Keith Law...
Chicago Cubs
Nico Hoerner (1) is a high-contact singles hitter from Stanford who was one of the few shortstops in the draft whom you could project to stay at the position long-term. He doesn't have power and rarely walked, but hitters who strike out this seldom are rare, and scouts absolutely raved about the kid's makeup and instincts on the field.
Brennen Davis (2) is a plus runner and center fielder who is an outstanding athlete but a long way off with the bat. His stock was hurt a little by a hamstring injury that kept him from running all-out much of the spring. I'm also annoyed that there was a prospect playing less than two miles from the house I owned and sold in 2013. Great timing, fellas.
Cole Roederer (2C) is a center fielder now with good feel to hit but has a hitch in his swing that probably has to be cleaned up for him to become a good hitter in pro ball. He also likely ends up in a corner where his fringy power could become an issue, so I'm not sure what the carrying tool is here. Paul Richan (2C) has been up to 94 as a starter with an average breaking ball, missing bats and never walking guys, while giving up a lot of hard contact due in part to the present lack of a average third pitch. He should go out as a starter with the obvious caveat that he'll need that additional weapon to stay there. Outfielder Jimmy Herron (3) has an elbow injury that might require Tommy John surgery. But if his arm recovers, he's a center fielder with a good eye at the plate and a simple swing for contact without much power.
Ethan Roberts (4) was an "unbelievable Trackman" guy, which means his pitch data drove him up the board. He'll work with four-seamers up and a hard cutter/slider with a huge spin rate. He has missed a ton of bats for Tennessee Tech on the road to the supers and gets ground balls as well. He's the sleeper of this class for me. Andy Weber (5) led UVA in average, OBP, slugging and even homers (OK, he had five) this spring while playing a solid second base -- he might be a little better than fifth round, even with the lack of tools, because he also doesn't have a glaring weakness, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him turn into a fringe regular. D.J. Artis (7) was on the back of my top 100 as a guy with a chance to be a regular in center. He can run and has hand strength but needs to work more on driving the ball.
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That sounds better than what I have been seeing. Still not glowing, but better...
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I have read every famous quote from every famous person, and no one has ever said "the paper you and the rest of us is looking at likely is not the same paper the draft team is looking at when it makes the picks"
One guy said, "don't be absurd", but although perhaps an adequate paraphrase, it is not the same as a quote.
Believe it or not, not everything every famous person has everything they say taken down for you to read.... but most of them do use better grammar than what I wrote in that post. ****, most NON-famous people do better than I did in that post.
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Someone posted an article a while back about some of the testing the Cubs put their draft prospects through. I remember reading something about them testing Mookie Betts's hitting instincts and finding some elite pitch recognition traits that a lot of other teams wound up missing on.
I guess that's where I might have more optimism for the high school guys than the MLB or BA rankings had for them. If you judge a player as having plus tools (which is where everyone seemed to have them) and our internal testing shows plus instincts and plus character makeup, that probably justifiably moves a player up a few more notches than where the baseball publications have them. Like with Roederer, if he has possible Bientendi tools/upside that a lot of scouts apparently see and you combine the top notch high school coaching he's already gotten and he has first rate instincts/character grades that a player has to have for the Theocracy to draft him that high, that sounds like a legit supplemental second rounder to me. And apparently we liked Brennan Davis even better than that, or else we wouldn't have picked him first.
Yeah, I'm hopeful that those kind of evaluations have improved over the years, too, and that the Cubs have gotten better and better at that? There were obviously a whole lot of good prospect left when they were picking Davis and Roederer, but those were the two that they chose. And chose, knowing that they'd cost overslot, whereas some other good prospects would have taken slot. So, to like them that much, not just at their slot but to pay excess besides, speaks to the favorable scouting they had on them. You don't do that unless you think there's at least a decent chance the guys will hit.
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Keith Law...
...Cole Roederer (2C) is a center fielder now with good feel to hit but has a hitch in his swing that probably has to be cleaned up for him to become a good hitter in pro ball. He also likely ends up in a corner where his fringy power could become an issue, so I'm not sure what the carrying tool is here. ...
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Fringy power, probably corner defense, hitch in his swing. That's not the super most toolsy writeup we've seen for him. I've got to figure "hit" has got to be the carrying tool, if he's going to work out.
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....Outfielder Jimmy Herron (3) has an elbow injury that might require Tommy John surgery. But if his arm recovers, he's a center fielder with a good eye at the plate and a simple swing for contact without much power.
Ethan Roberts (4) was an "unbelievable Trackman" guy, which means his pitch data drove him up the board. He'll work with four-seamers up and a hard cutter/slider with a huge spin rate. He has missed a ton of bats for Tennessee Tech on the road to the supers and gets ground balls as well. He's the sleeper of this class for me. Andy Weber (5) led UVA in average, OBP, slugging and even homers (OK, he had five) this spring while playing a solid second base -- he might be a little better than fifth round, even with the lack of tools, because he also doesn't have a glaring weakness, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him turn into a fringe regular. D.J. Artis (7) was on the back of my top 100 as a guy with a chance to be a regular in center. He can run and has hand strength but needs to work more on driving the ball.
Those are much more positive than anything else I've read. The "huge spin rate" for Roberts, that's news. WEber perhaps being better than his round, and having a shot to become a regular, that's pretty positive. And Artis having a chance to be a regular, too. Also the view that both ARtis and Herron are true CFers defensively. I like all that stuff.
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Ryan Harvey without the power....
Actually laughed out loud at that one.
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Someone posted an article a while back about some of the testing the Cubs put their draft prospects through. I remember reading something about them testing Mookie Betts's hitting instincts and finding some elite pitch recognition traits that a lot of other teams wound up missing on.
I guess that's where I might have more optimism for the high school guys than the MLB or BA rankings had for them. If you judge a player as having plus tools (which is where everyone seemed to have them) and our internal testing shows plus instincts and plus character makeup, that probably justifiably moves a player up a few more notches than where the baseball publications have them. Like with Roederer, if he has possible Bientendi tools/upside that a lot of scouts apparently see and you combine the top notch high school coaching he's already gotten and he has first rate instincts/character grades that a player has to have for the Theocracy to draft him that high, that sounds like a legit supplemental second rounder to me. And apparently we liked Brennan Davis even better than that, or else we wouldn't have picked him first.
Mooney has an article up on the draft that Davis scored well on the Cubs pitch recognition/video game simulation software and that the 4th round pick was helped to be identified by the R&D staff. Worth the read.
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Mooney has an article up on the draft that Davis scored well on the Cubs pitch recognition/video game simulation software and that the 4th round pick was helped to be identified by the R&D staff. Worth the read.
Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/384762/2018/06/07/an-inside-look-at-how-the-cubs-2018-draft-class-came-together/
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It will take years for the 2018 draft to play out, but I believe we can rest assured the Cubs had WAY, WAY more information about our picks than BA or any other source.
Theo-Jed-Jason have always been focused on market inefficiencies and ahead of the curve in drafting (e.g. Pedroia, Betts, Schwarber) and now seem to be even more intent on drafting hitters and pitchers who control the strike zone.
Time will tell, but I think we can feel rather confident that, in the very inexact world of predicting where the game will go and who can make the greatest leap, our front office DOES know some things that the "experts" don't about the kinds of guys who will be able to produce at the top level in the future for our Team.
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"I have read every famous quote from every famous person, and no one has ever said "the paper you and the rest of us is looking at likely is not the same paper the draft team is looking at when it makes the picks""
Believe it or not, not everything every famous person has everything they say taken down for you to read....
Even if you want to be silly enough to take hyperbole literally, what I said was "I have read every famous quote from every famous person,"
I was referring only to FAMOUS quotes by famous people. How many FAMOUS quotes do you know of by famous people that were never put in writing?
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At what point do you forgive a 15 year old? http://www.espn.com/college-sports/baseball/story/_/id/23736321/oregon-state-pitcher-luke-heimlich-gets-wins-ncaa-super-regional-opener-versus-minnesota
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Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/384762/2018/06/07/an-inside-look-at-how-the-cubs-2018-draft-class-came-together/
Thanks, Ron. Really loved that article, some great insights into the Cubs process and thinking, both about several of the players and just how they process things.
Dorey's comments about the HS outfielders I thought were helpful, and encouraging. Pretty evident they wanted players not pitchers, and to take shots at potential-impact ceiling guys; and in order to have a shot, they had to choose to be willing to take the necessary associated risk with HS prospects. Like, all that is obvious.
But I think knowing that and targeting that demographic going in, I have to believe their research was as exhaustive as possible. There must certainly have been other HS guys who were signable in the $1-1.5 range. But they did exhaustive research, and these were the two they targeted and willingly went over-slot to get. We'll see of course, and there's only so much research you can do with video games and small-season sampling against HS pitching; particularly for Roederer whose season was further abbreviated by injury.
But I'm pretty comfortable that the decision-making was thorough, thoughtful, well-reasoned, and optimally informed.
I admit I'm also somewhat hopeful in that the Cubs have done well with Gleyber, Eloy, and Amaya. Not perfect, of course (Sierra was perhaps of the same perceived-high-ceiling profile as Davis and Roederer, and was likewise out of sync from media rankings, unlike Gleyber and Eloy.) But I'm really hopeful for those two picks, that in three years one or both will look like guys who could have been quality first-round values had they gone to college and re-entered the draft 3 years from now.
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Let somebody else forgive him Curt.
At 10 or 11 you might have a few questions but not at 15.
What Heimlich did is the equivalent of a Freshman and a 1st grader.
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I guess what I'm failing to comprehend is exactly what is it that he did? If he actually tried to have sex, yeah, much harder to forgive.
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At what point do you forgive a 15 year old? http://www.espn.com/college-sports/baseball/story/_/id/23736321/oregon-state-pitcher-luke-heimlich-gets-wins-ncaa-super-regional-opener-versus-minnesota
From what little I've read of it, probably one of the biggest problems for forgiving him is he's not willing to take accountability for it. He still seems to act like he didn't do anything wrong and just got really poor legal advice. If he really didn't do anything, somebody really did him wrong to advise him to take a course where he'd have to register as a sex offender at 15. I'm sure any lawyer or parent would realize the serious life altering ramifications that would come from him registering as a sex offender that early in life, but that's the course that was taken regardless. From my far away distance on it, I just have a hard time believing he didn't do something that at least crossed a very serious line.
I'd also imagine as much as major league teams are looking for pitching and as much background work goes into evaluating what these kids are like off the field, if there was any possible way to justify adding him to a major league organization, someone would have done it. Whatever background work these teams are doing must not be turning out very well him for at all so far.
I'm like you, though, you'd hate to see someone not being given a chance to make up for a genuinely terrible thing at age 15 if they've gotten their life back together and changed their ways. He must not be giving teams much of a reason to do that, though.
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Word is he did what he did to his brothers daughter.
The brother and wife divorced over it and the little girls mother hasnt forgiven him in any way and hopes he never gets to play professionally.
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Those convicted of crimes, AND who unquestionably actually did exactly as they were convicted of, quite often later insist they did not actually do what they were convicted of. This is true even when the conviction is a result of a confession and a guilty plea.
This happens so often that it is perfectly reasonable and rational to ignore and dismiss the claims of innocence.
At the same time, there ARE some people who are convicted without having done what they are convicted of. There ARE some who confess to charges for conduct they never actually engaged in (though I understand no confession is involved here). And there ARE some who plead guilty and accept sentences even when they did not do as charged, something which most often happens when they enter into a plea agreement far more favorable than what they faced the risk of happening if the case went to trial.
In this guy's case, if the guilty plea meant being treated as a juvenile and not doing any prison time, and having the records sealed (or believing they would be), even if it also meant registering as a sex offender, that might have quite reasonably been more attractive than going to trial as an adult and being imprisoned for the next ten years, even if the prospect of conviction was no more than ten percent.
When deciding whether to accept a guilty plea, the real question is not whether you did as charged, but the likely sentence if convicted discounted by the likelihood of conviction.
In the case of the major league teams, the question would seem less likely whether he did or did not do as he pled guilty to, or whether he does or does not "deserve" a second chance. The question likely was primarily one of how the public would react to the news of his past.... and absent the girl involved coming forward and insisting that the charges were all a crock and that he really never did anything and that her mother just made **** up, I suspect GMs throughout the league made the logical decisions.
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There is one other factor that disturbs me. His case was sealed. Somebody, perhaps the girl's mother, tipped off the press who chose to break the story just before last year's draft. If his life is ruined, someone else needs to pay too.
JR, not sure on the accountability thing. When confronted, he admitted it and plead guilty. I realize now he's claiming poor legal advice and that he really didn't do anything, but I think he has met the court's demands.
NFL, MLB, NBA, we allow thugs, murderers, wife beaters, druggies, and drunks, guys who run prostitutes and young women, but don't do anything at age 15?
Just not sure the punishment fits the crime here. Short leash? For sure. Any hint of deviant behavior and you're toast. But banishment for something at 15?
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"Guilty in the Eyes of Social Media," and so no one will take a chance on him.
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"Guilty in the Eyes of Social Media," and so no one will take a chance on him.
Isn’t he also guilty in the eyes of the court? Pleading guilty to have sexual contact with a 6 year girl would be pretty horrible advise for adults to give a kid at 15 who was likely getting recruited by colleges for baseball at that point in his life. Pleading guilty and avoiding the publicity of a trail would seem like a great idea for an athlete with professional ambitions. As far as the NFL goes didn’t a Packers TE career get ended because he touched a high school girl?
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I am old enough to remember when juvenile court records were NOT sealed, and the ongoing justification for doing so. Quite simply put, the belief was that a mistake by a teenager should not result in the destruction of his entire life. I found that hard to dispute back then, and feel that it is still valid today.
Much of the Christian religion (at least MY view of MY Christian religion) is based upon the concept of redemption. "Go and sin no more" was the directive. Certainly, if this kid was guilty of continuing or recommitting the offense, his punishment should continue. But in the absence of that, it is time for EVERYONE to let it go.
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What I'm saying is, I wouldn't hire him to babysit kids, but if his pitching talent could in some way help him redeem his life, give the poor bastard a shot.
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Where does what he did to the life of the girl he molested factor in?
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I have a hard time with this one. I wouldn't want the Cubs to draft him based on the charges, but I do believe in 2nd chances especially when the transgression occurs when the person is a juvenile. With that said, the allegations are vulgar and disgusting.
Some of you may know that I am a criminal defense attorney. For those that don't.....now you know. My understanding, based on reading an article a month or so ago is that the kid has denied all charges from the beginning of the allegation up until now. At no time did he ever admit to doing anything to his niece (other than in court). The allegation is allegedly based on the little girl telling her mother that Luke touched her inappropriately. As a defense attorney I can tell you that young children can be convinced to say just about anything. Did mom continue to say "did Uncle Luke touch you...." Or did the little girl just tell her mom that Uncle Luke touched her. Huge difference in this one.
Skipping ahead......it seems that he was told that the juvenile record would be sealed when he turned 18. If I remember correctly, Heimlich, or his attorney, forget to do the sealing so it remained open.
Lets talk about pleading guilty to something that the defendant believes he is innocent of committing. It happens all of the time. I do it all of the time. Hypothetically lets say that I have a drug case where the state offers me whats called "410 Probation". My guy claims innocence. 410 Probation basically means that the defendant jumps through some hoops and stays out of trouble and the case is dropped. If we go to trial and win the case is dropped. If we go to trial and lose he might face a jail sentence and will certainly have a criminal conviction on his record. I would almost ALWAYS suggest the safe road which is 410 Probation.
In this case a plea may seem extreme, but you are dealing with family and perhaps it was suggested to him that he shouldn't put the entire family on trial. Perhaps he was told that he would need to jump through some hoops and then at 18 (before he leaves for college) the whole incident would be behind him. Who knows what he was told prior to pleading out on the matter. Bad legal work? Perhaps. Looking at the totality of putting the entire family on trial and making them take sides? Perhaps.
Again, I don't want him on the Cubs due to the negative publicity. I know enough about ownership and management to know that he isn't likely to be a Cub. If the team is looking to move on from Russell based on the domestic violence case, I am confident that the Cubs won't be interested in Heimlich.
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Thanks for your interesting thoughts, chgojhawk
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In this day and age, I think the team signing him could spin the signing, perhaps giving him a $250,000 signing bonus which he gives to the offended family. Put him in a position of service for Big Brothers or Make a Wish. If he messes up again as an adult, fine, he's done. Thanks for the input, chgojhawk.
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Wouldn’t donating the bonus to the family be tantamount to admitting he was guilty?
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Wouldn’t donating the bonus to the family be tantamount to admitting he was guilty?
In the eyes of the law, he already is, because he plead guilty. Claiming otherwise now ain't helpin'.
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Hopefully, someone will sign him and give him a chance. Personally, I hope it isn't the Cubs that does so.
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In the eyes of the law, he already is, because he plead guilty. Claiming otherwise now ain't helpin'.
I think you're dismissing that element too easily.
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No team drafted him because a) they investigated and think he's still a creep, or b) they're trying to insulate themselves from Social Media Justice. I suspect it's B. Social Media Justice is scary stuff. At its worst, it's like our president--it avoids any semblance of nuance, throws a bunch of **** against a wall, and gets lots of people riled up.
At this point, it doesn't matter what the kid did or didn't do, or whether he's served his time and performed his debt to society. Social Media Justice has deemed him a child molester, and teams are afraid to have anything to do with him at risk of being labeled as Shameful (soft on sex crime, whatever). Personally, I suspect the kid has gotten screwed and has at least been punished enough, so I hope he does get a shot--a quiet one out of the spotlight of the draft--and I'd be okay if it was with the Cubs (I trust them to do their homework).
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This is just social media, there is an actual guilty plea.
Teams did the math and his talent wasn’t worth drafting him. If he was a #1 starter it might have been different. Personally I’m glad he didn’t get drafted. I have no clue if he did or didn’t do what he pled guilty to, but I don’t think it is worth having to risk having him in professional baseball.
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Ethan Roberts pitched 4 innings in Tenn Tech's win over Texas in their first game. K'd the side in his first inning, then allowed one run, 4 hits, 1K/1BB over the remaining three.
I hadn't paid a lot of attention to him during draft. I know he was an outlier being drafted that high as a relief-pitcher for a program that isn't a traditional power. But he's also an outlier in that he's so small. Lists as 5'11" on BBCube.
Will be interesting to see how the Cubs use him when he starts his pro career next year. Strictly relief all the way, or at least in the minors will they start him to get more pro innings more quickly? Or who knows, maybe he'll be one of those outliers who transitions from relief to rotation and sticks.
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Per Twitter, deals are pending with 7th round OFer Artis, and 24th round P whose name is escaping me
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Blake Whitney
For those of you who like tracking draft signings, follow @savermetrics on twitter
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What I think is interesting is he is a high spin rate guy, but the breaking ball isn't describe as a plus pitch. There has been some talk about spin and needing to be on the ideal axis for it to matter. I wonder if they are going to try and tinker with that.
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Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney 41m41 minutes ago
Sources: The #Cubs are finalizing an agreement with first-round pick Nico Hoerner expected to be worth slot value ($2.724 million for No. 24 overall). The plan is for the Stanford shortstop to take his physical this week in Arizona and begin his pro career with Class-A Eugene.
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I wonder if the Cubs have kinda for the most part bagged the idea of doing creative underslots to help fund overslots? That was a huge deal with Schwarber, where they saved $1.5 and used that to sign the three HS pitchers.
But I wonder if they've decided against messing around with that, for either procedural reasons or psychological reasons or both. Last year, it seemed any of Little, Lange, Abbott, Thompson, or Uelman might have been given underslot. With the possible exceptionof Lange, they probably all seemed to go a little higher than the media rankings projected, kind of like with this years picks; and with all but Little being college juniors without much senior-year leverage, you'd think that **IF** the Cubs had wanted to squeeze, probably any of those guys would have signed at 80% slot rather than walk away. Little did apparently go a little under ($174K), but that's peanuts. Lange ended up a little under, but I think that was only after he failed his physical.
This year, it would have seemed that both Hoerner and Richan would sign for sub-slot rather than return to school. But it appears both are going to get full slot.
Thoughts:
1. Only cash for overslots needs to come from the 5% overage and senior-signs. Probably around $700K available to cover Davis, Roederer, Franklin, and any potential 3rd-day overslots. (If any, Cubs rarely do 3rd-day overslots, to my knowledge.) .
2. Operationally, I think just going with slot might make everything a lot smoother.
a. When calling during the draft itself, lots easier to call and say "will you sign for slot?" than doing negotiations for how far beneath-slot a guy is willing to go?
b. Perhaps easier for creating board? "X at 80% is better value than Y at 95% value, but I still think that Z at 109% slot might still be a better value....". Might be lots easier just to rank Z > Y > X, and take the top guy on your board who'll sign for slot.
c. Should make signing deal easy, too. "You said you'd sign for slot, here's slot offer, sign here.....". No negotiating required.
3. I wonder if there isn't also some psychology and "treat people with respect" aspect? Cubs are very conscious of treating guys well, and having them love the organization. If you're trying to scrinch Hoerner and Richan to go sub-slot, do they come out with a player-vs-management mindset? Feel like they were getting screwed? Feeling disrespected?
So perhaps Cubs just feel like sticking with slot is good for morale and relationships and attitudes, and is so much simpler operationally, that it's just not worth it to mess around with sub-slotting guys other than 8th-10th-round senior signs?
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For all the picks the Cubs had this year, their total draft budget was still relatively small, due to the fact that all the picks were very late in their respective rounds. You need more money than the Cubs had to successfully play the underslot game, IMO.
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If trying for a big top-15 prospect, yes. But you don't need millions to have access to interesting guys who'd be willing to sign for a million. Cease or Steele-scale overslot, or Hanneman or DJ Wilson or Estrade from last year. Cubs should have $0.6-0.7 to play with by going slot. If they'd pressed Hoerner to sign for $2.0, would he have said forget it, I'm going to wait for a later round or next year?
I'm not challenging the logic. I think everything flows so much easier if you just plan for slot for most of your picks, and just pick the best guy you've got who's willing to slot. Sure makes those phone calls easier, I think.
And slot or no, you've still got shot to still sign one or more $1M guys in the mid-rounds. Estrada last year.
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Schwarber is really the only time the Cubs have gone well below slot and that was more of the Cubs really liking him vs the rest of the industry.
Maybe they could of squeezed Hoerner for a couple hundred thousand or maybe he was going in the next couple of picks and had leverage on the Cubs.
You are always better off taking the best guy on your board. Getting savings is nice, but your first pick is the pick most likely to reach the majors.
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Absolutely. Get the guy you like best. I think it's a good plan. Pay slot, take your favorite signable guy, and use your overage and 8-10 senior signs to buy a couple of HS prospects at variable but relatively modest overslot.
I'm just talking to myself, I think. Last year, with Little who I didn't expect that high, and then Abbott who wasn't projected that high, and Thompson who wasn't projected that high, I wondered if they were picking up a couple-hundred underslot on each. False. Again, this month I thought with Hoerner and Richen, they might pic up a couple hundred each. False.
Next year, I'm going to squelch any such "I wonder if" thoughts that come to mind!
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Ethan Roberts, after pitching 4 innings on Saturday, comes back on Monday with 3.1 more, but Tennessee Tech is eliminated.
3.1 / 3 / 0 / 1 / 3
Hope that kind of workload does his arm no harm. Can't imagine he's going to pitch much, if at all, this summer.
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The coach actually pulled him, he wanted to stay in the game....
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I'm just talking to myself, I think. Last year, with Little who I didn't expect that high, and then Abbott who wasn't projected that high, and Thompson who wasn't projected that high, I wondered if they were picking up a couple-hundred underslot on each. False. Again, this month I thought with Hoerner and Richen, they might pic up a couple hundred each. False.
The hard part is we only have the public rankings to inform ourselves. So he see a guy being down the rankings and think that he should come in under slot. What he don't have is how the Cubs view the player and other teams view the player. It only takes 1 other team being interested in a player close to when the Cubs pick to keep that player from being an underslot. Best case is somebody like Schwarber, near the top of your board and down on other teams. That is what we should be hoping for!
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The hard part is we only have the public rankings to inform ourselves. So he see a guy being down the rankings and think that he should come in under slot. What he don't have is how the Cubs view the player and other teams view the player. It only takes 1 other team being interested in a player close to when the Cubs pick to keep that player from being an underslot. Best case is somebody like Schwarber, near the top of your board and down on other teams. That is what we should be hoping for!
I would say it doesn't even take that much. It merely takes the perception that another team is similarly interested.
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The hard part is we only have the public rankings to inform ourselves. So he see a guy being down the rankings and think that he should come in under slot. ....
Just to make clear here, I am NOT saying any of Hoerner, Richen, Abbott, Little, or Thompson "SHOULD" have come under slot. I'm just saying that at the time, I thought then that it seemed reasonable to wonder if they "would" come under slot.
What I am saying is that at this point, I don't think I'm every going to entertain that question during rounds 1-6 again!
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I am old enough to remember when juvenile court records were NOT sealed, and the ongoing justification for doing so. Quite simply put, the belief was that a mistake by a teenager should not result in the destruction of his entire life. I found that hard to dispute back then, and feel that it is still valid today.
Much of the Christian religion (at least MY view of MY Christian religion) is based upon the concept of redemption. "Go and sin no more" was the directive. Certainly, if this kid was guilty of continuing or recommitting the offense, his punishment should continue. But in the absence of that, it is time for EVERYONE to let it go.
I knew you were older than I am, but....
I believe most states began sealing Juvenile Court records by about 1910, not long after creating Juvenile Courts.
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My understanding, based on reading an article a month or so ago is that the kid has denied all charges from the beginning of the allegation up until now. At no time did he ever admit to doing anything to his niece (other than in court). The allegation is allegedly based on the little girl telling her mother that Luke touched her inappropriately. As a defense attorney I can tell you that young children can be convinced to say just about anything. Did mom continue to say "did Uncle Luke touch you...." Or did the little girl just tell her mom that Uncle Luke touched her. Huge difference in this one.
Skipping ahead......it seems that he was told that the juvenile record would be sealed when he turned 18. If I remember correctly, Heimlich, or his attorney, forget to do the sealing so it remained open.
Lets talk about pleading guilty to something that the defendant believes he is innocent of committing. It happens all of the time. I do it all of the time. Hypothetically lets say that I have a drug case where the state offers me whats called "410 Probation". My guy claims innocence. 410 Probation basically means that the defendant jumps through some hoops and stays out of trouble and the case is dropped. If we go to trial and win the case is dropped. If we go to trial and lose he might face a jail sentence and will certainly have a criminal conviction on his record. I would almost ALWAYS suggest the safe road which is 410 Probation.
In this case a plea may seem extreme, but you are dealing with family and perhaps it was suggested to him that he shouldn't put the entire family on trial. Perhaps he was told that he would need to jump through some hoops and then at 18 (before he leaves for college) the whole incident would be behind him. Who knows what he was told prior to pleading out on the matter. Bad legal work? Perhaps. Looking at the totality of putting the entire family on trial and making them take sides? Perhaps.
Again, I don't want him on the Cubs due to the negative publicity. I know enough about ownership and management to know that he isn't likely to be a Cub. If the team is looking to move on from Russell based on the domestic violence case, I am confident that the Cubs won't be interested in Heimlich.
I agree completely... just as I did before your post.
Those convicted of crimes, AND who unquestionably actually did exactly as they were convicted of, quite often later insist they did not actually do what they were convicted of. This is true even when the conviction is a result of a confession and a guilty plea.
This happens so often that it is perfectly reasonable and rational to ignore and dismiss the claims of innocence.
At the same time, there ARE some people who are convicted without having done what they are convicted of. There ARE some who confess to charges for conduct they never actually engaged in (though I understand no confession is involved here). And there ARE some who plead guilty and accept sentences even when they did not do as charged, something which most often happens when they enter into a plea agreement far more favorable than what they faced the risk of happening if the case went to trial.
In this guy's case, if the guilty plea meant being treated as a juvenile and not doing any prison time, and having the records sealed (or believing they would be), even if it also meant registering as a sex offender, that might have quite reasonably been more attractive than going to trial as an adult and being imprisoned for the next ten years, even if the prospect of conviction was no more than ten percent.
When deciding whether to accept a guilty plea, the real question is not whether you did as charged, but the likely sentence if convicted discounted by the likelihood of conviction.
In the case of the major league teams, the question would seem less likely whether he did or did not do as he pled guilty to, or whether he does or does not "deserve" a second chance. The question likely was primarily one of how the public would react to the news of his past.... and absent the girl involved coming forward and insisting that the charges were all a crock and that he really never did anything and that her mother just made **** up, I suspect GMs throughout the league made the logical decisions.
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Mayo tweeted Richan signed for full pick and said $450,000 which isn’t full slot. 🤷♂️
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That's hilarious! So just when I've accepted that they aren't doing sub-slots until round 8, we find that they sub-slotted a guy by >$300K at <60% of slot. :)
And that's the guy who said they called him first and asked if he would sign for slot!
Heh heh, maybe he left out the part about them asking if he'd sign for 4th-round slot, not 2nd-round slot? :)
Not sure what to conclude there. I guess that they didn't actually scout guy as true 2nd-round caliber, to spin it negatively. Or else that they REALLY liked the HS guys and knew they were willing to go even further over-slot to get them, to spin it positively.
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Mayo clarified that it was a sub slot.
I feel better about valuing him at a 4th rounder. Hopefully their will be some guys after the 10th round that will get some money too.
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Davis signing for $1.1 million. Just barely above slot.
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Thanks,blue. Interesting, thought he might get a little more.
Two other signings I saw, both somewhat surprising:
"@jimcallisMLB 7th-rder D.J. Artis signs w/@Cubs for $250k (pick 218 value = $192,500). Liberty OF, plus runner, definite CF, unorthodox lefty stance but gets on base & puts up numbers. @MLBDraft"
And I saw somewhere that 10th rounder Luke Reynolds signed..... for $125K! That's only $12K underslot. So, not one of those $10K signings.
Kind of curious, because usually Cubs have been going pretty cheap in the 7-10 range. I wonder if that isn't something of a market opportunity, to get guys at slot when everybody else is going with senior signs.
Also saw reference to Cubs having made a "decent" offer to 28th rounder, a HS guy.
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[quote author=craig link=topic=513.msg347352#msg347352 date=1529027437
And I saw somewhere that 10th rounder Luke Reynolds signed..... for $125K! That's only $12K underslot. So, not one of those $10K signings.
Kind of curious, because usually Cubs have been going pretty cheap in the 7-10 range. I wonder if that isn't something of a market opportunity, to get guys at slot when everybody else is going with senior signs.
Also saw reference to Cubs having made a "decent" offer to 28th rounder, a HS guy.
[/quote]
I think last year they only did 2 senior signs, so it does seem the Cubs are bucking the trend after doing it heavily in the past.
Really hoping Parker signs.
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32nd rounder Jack Patterson has signed, and is throwing in Mesa, awaiting assignment.
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https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2018/06/12/inside-the-draft-process-good-stuff-from-sam-hughes-via-mick-gillispie-and-eric-cain/
Another aspect that goes into selecting a Cub in the Theo Era is neuro scouting which predicts bat-to-ball skills. .... This year, those highest scores went to second round pick Brennen Davis. ...
Hughes also brought up compensation pick Cole Roederer as a pick he really liked. ..... Roederer’s a classic top of the order guy with some pop.
The final three guys Hughes talked about also detailed on why they were picked. Pitcher Paul Richan (Compensation round) was taken for his ability to throw strikes. 2B Andy Weber (5th round) from Virginia was taken as a hitter who has good bat-to-ball skills. Pitcher Ethan Roberts (4th round) flashed an amazing curve and cutter in his work this past weekend in the College World Series. Hughes thinks Roberts’ stuff will play up like Dakota Mekkes’ stuff has done as a pro. That’s a pretty cool comp. And again, Hughes praised the Cubs R&D staff for all the pitch data on Roberts, who could be an elite arm.
Thought Roederer as "top of the order with some pop" was an interesting synopsis. That would be cool. Davis being tops on the neuro stuff interesting, which is supposed to project bat-to-ball skills (and I assume also pitch-recognition aptitude.) Thought comping Roberts with Mekkes is a creative and unexpected comp. (Roberts short/Mekkes is tall/massive; Mekkes fastball-heavy while Roberts scouting seems t emphasize breaking ball/spin-rate.) But Hughes compared the two in that effective fastball projects better than perhaps the mediocre velocity readings would suggest.
With Richan he also mentioned analytics. I can't even guess what nuanced factors they consider in their analytics analysis, but hoping they are seeing positive indicators that perhaps the media scouting reports didn't see or appreciate? Spoke favorably about 5th rounder from Virginia as a bat-to-ball guy. Mentioned Franklin only briefly, as a HS pick after the 2nd round. Only other name he mentioned after Franklin was Ezequiel Pagan, the 17-year-old CF from Puerto Rico (13th round). So, likes Pagan, and I doubt he'd mention him if he didn't understand him to be signable.
Anyway, this was a *really* good interview.
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https://twitter.com/MDGonzales/status/1008427454506176514?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%231008427454506176514
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Nico Hoerner is a done deal at slot (2.724M), per Jon Heyman...
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Thanks, Dave. Nice to have those wrapped, even if obvious and slot, because they can't use any of the expected overage until his deal is formalized.
I haven't often seen $$ numbers for 3rd-day picks. But have three 3rd-day senior-signs, rounds 21, 22, and 31, at $5K, $3K, and $1K. Really slim $$ for those senior roster-fillers. Kind of interesting that already by pick 21 you're down to ≤$5K values.
14th junior got $125K slot.
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@jimcallisMLB
More
9th-rder Derek Casey signs w/@Cubs for $130k (pick 278 value = $145,100). Virginia RHP, redshirt junior after Tommy John surgery after freshman season, changeup is best pitch, sits around 90 mph w/fastball. @MLBDraft
@jimcallisMLB
8th-rder Zach Mort signs w/@Cubs for $140k (pick 248 value = $159,100). George Mason RHP, pounds the zone w/averageish stuff, 108/13 K/BB in 105 1/3 IP this spring. @MLBDraft
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Interesting that senior-sign Casey still almost slot. Did he still have a redshirt year left, if he wanted to try going pro at age 23 or 24 instead?
Also kind of curious that they do these teensy sub-slot deals in rounds 8-10. $19K, $15K, and $12K savings?
Looks like they're basically using a 90% formula? "Mort, we wanna save a little bit here, but IF were to to offer almost slow, like slot minus 10%, are you interested?" "Casey, if we offer 90% slot, will you sign, or rather go back to school or hope for a better deal tomorrow? My scouting director says we can't do a full slot deal here, but he said that if I love a player as much as I want to sign you, that I can go as high as 90%. What do you think, could we get a deal done at 90% even if it isn't quite full slot?"
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Callis had Casey as a redshirt Junior but MLB.com lists him as 4th year senior.
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I tried to do a little work for the board. I’m in Omaha and sat near the Arkansas bullpen today. I asked Jake Reindl if he was going to sign with the Cubs. An Arkansas fan angrily responded “he’s coming back to Arkansas”. Reindl looked at me and shrugged and said “not sure yet”.
So really it isn’t much of an update but the door isn’t closed either.
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You should have shot the Arkansas fan in the head with a large caliber firearm.
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If you are going to blow his brains out, you don't need a large caliber.
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They invented the toothbrush in Arkansas. Any place else it would have been called a teethbrush.
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Jim Callis
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3rd-rder Jimmy Herron signs w/@Cubs for $520k (pick 98 value = $570,600). Duke OF, feel to hit w/wood bats, OBP > power, plus runner, didn't play CF in college but could in pro ball. @MLBDraft
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A tad more info on Reindl.....sounds like he may sign per someone that would likely know. With that said, he has a big issue with his back which is why he hasn’t pitched yet. Once he pitches he is done for 3-4 days with back pain. Will likely get a high leverage appearance soon but then he will be out for awhile.
I asked if this was a chronic issue or just something he is battling now. The guy I spoke with seemed to think it was something that would need attention to get better.
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Thanks, jhawk. Interesting.
Seems like pro-organization with 12-month involvement in care and treatment plan would be best case for a guy.
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And the Cubs are building (or have built) a state of the art facility for rehabbing players at Wrigley. Not sure is a minor leaguer or draftee would get to use the facility but I would think that it could open up options for the team when looking at players facing this sort of issue.
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It looks like Josh Sawyer is going to sign. Given that he is a college kid it was likely presumed that he would sign.
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https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1010202557774548992
Wow, Roberts signs for 10th-round slot.
Very bizarre. Cubs now have a full million in discretionary money to spend on overslot. Never know the strategic logic unless the rest of the signings come through, but pretty crazy. So, a million overslot available, with Roederer and Franklin the only HS top-10's left. Are those two guys both going a LOT further overslot than we'd have guessed?
Or are the Cubs doing some overslot investments on 3rd-day picks that we haven't seen them do much of previously? In the last 5 drafts, I think they've gone overslot on only like five 3rd-day guys, and Clifton's the only one more than $100K over. Very surprising.
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And the Cubs are building (or have built) a state of the art facility for rehabbing players at Wrigley. Not sure is a minor leaguer or draftee would get to use the facility but I would think that it could open up options for the team when looking at players facing this sort of issue.
Could be a nice market inefficiency to exploit.
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https://twitter.com/kohlrf/status/1010663377759137792
Kohl Franklin. No dollar details.
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Franklin $540 (slot $246).
Both 17-year-old Puerto Rican guys have signed. (13th rounder sounds really interesting; 34th don't know, seemingly a good-fielding middle-infielder with ??? bat...)
11th round Thompson signed, no $$ info.
12th round Sanders (LSU guy who McLeod baby-sat for....) signed for slot. 14th rounder also for slot.
Assuming Hoerner is slot, I think they should have ~ $690K un-accounted for for overslots, with Roederer and Weber the top-10-round guys un-reported, and anything not used there available for 3rd-day guys.
Of course, perhaps a bunch of that has already been expended (maybe Thompson-11 or Pagan-13 got overslot, beats me...)
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Jim Callis
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Supplemental 2nd-rder Cole Roederer signs w/@cubs for $1.2 million (pick 77 value = $775,100). California HS OF, hampered by shoulder injury this spring but nice power/speed combination & five-tool potential. UCLA recruit. @MLBDraft
That leaves around $265K.
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Jake Reindl signed. We have now signed 24 of our top 25 selections. The lone holdout being Layne Looney (great name) a junior RHP from Richmond.
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Jim Callis
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5th-rder Andy Weber signs w/@Cubs for $400k (pick 158 value = $317,600). Virginia 2B, line-drive hitter who batted .344/.415/.536 this spring. @MLBDraft
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https://twitter.com/jimcallismlb/status/1015244357727936512
35th-rder Edmond Americaan agrees w/@Cubs on $208,500 bonus ($83,500 counts vs slot). Chipola (Fla.) JC OF, plus speed is best tool & plays on bases and in CF, line-drive/contact bat. Florida International recruit. @MLBDraft
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Thanks, blue, that's unexpected. Thought JC might mean young, but he's 21, just like a regular full-college draftee.
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Here is the only Kris Bryant news so far this morning:
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Maddon acknowledged Bryant might have to tolerate some level of discomfort when he eventually returns
Is Maddon telling Bryant to suck it up and say he's ready to play?
The Cubs aren't saying anything about how his BP session went. Very strange.
Let the speculation continue.
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They've won 6 in a row without him. Tell him to take his time. There will be a time he will be needed desperately and it would be better if he was in full health.
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Here is the only Kris Bryant news so far this morning:
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Maddon acknowledged Bryant might have to tolerate some level of discomfort when he eventually returns
Is Maddon telling Bryant to suck it up and say he's ready to play?
The Cubs aren't saying anything about how his BP session went. Very strange.
Let the speculation continue.
Maddon is saying its not going to get better super soon, and bryant will have to endure till the off-season.
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It's been two hours since Bryant's BP session. We should have heard something by now. If it's "we'll have to wait until later and that means he won't be activated today", then say so.
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I think he's been playing hurt for a while... and its likely a bigger deal then its letting on. It explains the complete collapse in his power numbers.
He has 9 extra base hits since may 19th's double header. with only 1 hr in that span.
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More people might read this if it was in the Cubs 18 topic.
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More people might read this if it was in the Cubs 18 topic.
My mistake.
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https://twitter.com/jimcallismlb/status/1015244357727936512
35th-rder Edmond Americaan agrees w/@Cubs on $208,500 bonus ($83,500 counts vs slot). Chipola (Fla.) JC OF, plus speed is best tool & plays on bases and in CF, line-drive/contact bat. Florida International recruit. @MLBDraft
His JC stats at Chippola were really good. Think they play some pretty good teams, but he hit well over .400, walks/HBP > K's, hit 8 HR, think OBP > .500.
will be interesting to see how he does and how quickly they get him up to South Bend.
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My mistake.
I wasn't mad, just thought it was a good talking point.
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Chipola is a JC baseball factory.
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Cubs did seem to go all in on the fast OF this year.
Herron, Artis, Americaan and maybe Pagan (IIRC).
This was the third time Americaan was drafted.
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One of the biggest “tools” the Cubs are now evaluating is vision.
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Cubs also signed Niels Stone. The only remaining names that aren't accounted for are Layne Looney, a 5'11 pitcher from Richmond, and Julius Boyd, a HS OF from California.
I'm guessing Boyd won't be signing. This late in the game is also seems likely that Looney won't be signing. I would imagine that Looney is more likely than Boyd.
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https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-sign-32-selections-from-2018-mlb-draft/c-284535220
No Looney or Boyd. Taylor still has some time based on when his season ended.
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Looney Boyd... Why do I think of Mel Blanc when I hear that?
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Do you have a puddy cat?
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Tat. Puddy tat.