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Title: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on October 02, 2018, 09:05:55 pm
May as well...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 09:09:26 pm
I'm not a big scapegoat the coaches kinda guy, but I would say you have to dump Davis at this point.  There's just no excuse for this offense to be this dysfunctional with these players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 02, 2018, 09:17:51 pm
Yeah, the hitting coach has to go when a team underperforms this much as a group.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 09:21:41 pm
Honestly, I think you have to look hard at changing everything.  Hitting coach and sign one of Harper or Machado for sure.  But I don't think there should be any sacred cows here, either when it comes to the core players or the manager. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 02, 2018, 09:26:38 pm
The biggest sacred cow will be the luxury tax.  The Cubs are right on the edge, and I don't think that management will go over it.  How do they sign a top free agent without going way over.  And how do you trade underachievers for someone that won't also be an underachiever?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 09:33:44 pm
There’s zero chance the Cubs don’t go over next season. The trick is going to avoid the repeater penalties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on October 02, 2018, 09:40:00 pm
Machado a rumored prima donna. Course, Harper's not exactly Mr. Congeniality.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 02, 2018, 09:41:13 pm
The thing you want to avoid is the highest level tax where you get penalized in the draft. The repeated penalties only affect the Ricketts bottom line.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 02, 2018, 09:41:21 pm
Who cares? By all accounts, Heyward and Almora are great guys. I'll take a prima donna who hits over them any day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 02, 2018, 10:03:54 pm
Give me Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 10:55:35 pm
The thing you want to avoid is the highest level tax where you get penalized in the draft. The repeated penalties only affect the Ricketts bottom line.

Which will, in turn, be rolled back the the payroll.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 02, 2018, 11:00:58 pm
New TV deal, hotel across the street, houses behind the bleachers. A lot of ways for the Ricketts to make money outside of what the have to report as Cubs income.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on October 02, 2018, 11:02:30 pm
Is Bryant the primary 3B next year?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 02, 2018, 11:03:59 pm
Yes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 02, 2018, 11:04:59 pm
Unless they sign Machado.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 02, 2018, 11:06:22 pm
Unless they sign Machado.  So Bryant will be the third baseman
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 11:10:04 pm
With Russell 99.9% gone, I don't think a Machado signing is that far-fetched.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 02, 2018, 11:13:25 pm
I would love it, but I think there is almost no chance of it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 02, 2018, 11:13:38 pm
We're arguing the post-mortem while the game is still in the balance.  That's so Cub.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 02, 2018, 11:22:23 pm
It's not really a post-mortem.  I doubt if the questioned signing will hinge upon what happens in this game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 12:29:29 am
The first big decision - and it's huge - is Hamels.  Hard to see how you can let your best pitcher walk away on what is, by today's standards, a reasonable salary.  But this team has to spend a lot of money addressing its other needs and they do have a lot of SP under contract (even if none of them are as good as Hamels).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 01:19:54 am
If you want some hope amidst the gloom, Chavez said after the game he's retiring if the Cubs don't bring him back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 03, 2018, 10:03:15 am
We're a big market team and Im sure we'll be active this offseason.

Our run isnt done.

I do think the roster needs a thorough cleansing though.

Im living the good life at the beach right now so I dont have time to get into it but a top of the line leadoff man seems more necessary to me than Harper or Machado and the pitching staff needs a few new pieces.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 10:32:09 am
Im living the good life at the beach right now so I dont have time to get into it but a top of the line leadoff man seems more necessary to me than Harper or Machado

I think they're both necessary.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on October 03, 2018, 11:17:49 am
So who are the potential leadoff types that we could sign or trade for?  If we sign Harper, I imagine Happ, Schwarber, or Almora become trade bait.  Who is out there that would be available?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on October 03, 2018, 11:37:31 am
I wonder if Washington would let Eaton go to free up another OF spot?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 11:41:51 am
There aren't really any leadoff types on the free agent market. AJ Pollock and Brian Dozier have done it before. But Pollock hasn't really been a good OBP guy since 2014-15, and his injury history makes him pretty scary at 31 years old. Dozier is coming off a terrible season, so I don't think you can count on him being a top of the order guy.

The trade market isn't that much better, but there may be a few options. The Royals should trade Whit Merrifield because he's 29 and probably will be in decline by the the next time the Royals are good, but I don't think they have the stomach to do it.

I could see the Nationals wanting to shake up their lineup, So Adam Eaton could be available. His bat fits well, but his injury problems are of some concern. I know a lot of Cubs fans hate him too...I'm not sure if that's just because he played for the White Sox or if there is something specific he did to make him a bad clubhouse guy.

The Rays are unpredictable, so I guess Tommy Pham could go back on the market...but I doubt it. The Braves would probably trade Ender Inciarte for the right price, but he's coming off a down year (and I don't think it's clear he's much more than a LH Almora anyway).

The Rangers would probably trade Elivs Andrus. He appeared to have finally emerged as that type of hitter in 2016-17, but was bad this year after he broke his wrist in April. If you buy that the injury killed his season, he could be an option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 11:51:54 am
Why wouldn't Zobrist work as the leadoff hitter?  In 140 PA this year leading off he was .285/.371/.439?  He gives you a professional AB and is a switch hitter.

1) Zobrist 2B
2.) Bryant 3B
3.) Harper CF/RF
4.) Baez SS
5.) Rizzo 1B
6.) Contreras C
7.) Schwarber LF
8.) Hayward/Happ/Almora CF/RF

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on October 03, 2018, 11:55:01 am
How many games can you rely on him to play? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 11:56:01 am
I think Zobrist must have some aversion to hitting leadoff that Maddon tries to accommodate as much as possible. Otherwise, he would've just lead off all the time this year.

He's also probably going to be even more of a part time player next year, and he'll be 38 years old in May. At some point soon, he's going to decline.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 01:36:29 pm
139 games at 37.  The guy just wakes up and hits.  The fact that he could play second would make it easier with Russell likely done.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 01:47:40 pm
He only started 108 of those 139 games, though. He had most of a day off once every 3 games this year, and that will likely happen more frequently next year.

I don't think they should count on Zobrist for more than 400-450 PA next year. I'd like for the Cubs to have a guy at the top of the lineup that can be expected to play far more than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 03, 2018, 01:58:36 pm
If only Terrance Gore could hit somewhere north of .200

With the versatility of many of the current players, I hope they could find a roster spot for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 02:42:03 pm
I don't think they should count on Zobrist for more than 400-450 PA next year. I'd like for the Cubs to have a guy at the top of the lineup that can be expected to play far more than that.

The problem is who and where do they play. 

Whitfield is the only really interesting guy I've seen mentioned and for the Royals to trade him it would be expensive. 

Just looking at the middle infielder, OF leaderboards on Fangraphs and guys that are FA for OBP
2B Jed Lowrie
2B Logan Forsythe
OF Andrew McCutchen
OF Nick Markakis
* Marwin Gonzalez if you believe 2017 was real

That isn't a great group to chose from.

For trades it is guys like Whitfield, Cesar Hernandez, Pham and Mallex Smith.  None of them maybe available and the Rays are rumored to not want to trade with Cubs.  Get enough good hitters and the leadoff guy doesn't matter.

The Red Sox hit Mookie Betts as their main leadoff hitter, so I'm not convinced hitting Rizzo or Bryant there is a bad idea either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 03, 2018, 03:00:28 pm
I like Whitfield, although this year was his best and he won't be cheap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 03:02:47 pm
This probably won't impact the Cubs because I doubt he'll still be in the organization by next spring, by just FYI...

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Should have breaking news on Addison Russell’s situation momentarily. Suspension forthcoming. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-40 games.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 03, 2018, 03:15:46 pm
As we look into 2019, one glaring item is how our front office has prioritized "older" pitchers and young every-day players (except Grandpa Zobrist) and that formula has worked pretty well.  So far.   

Is that prioritization of older pitchers more out of necessity or does our brain trust place greater value than other teams on pitchers who are in their 30s and have "learned how to pitch" at the top level?

If we sign Hamels for next season, our starters will be:
* 35 - Hamels and Lester
* 32/33 - Darvish (turns 33 in August)
* 30 - Quintana
* 29 - Hendricks

Our non-starting pitchers aren't exactly young by MLB standards either:
* 34/35 - Morrow (35 in July)
* 33/34 - Strop (34 in June)
* 35/36 - Chavez (36 in August)
* 32/33 - Cishek (33 in June)
* 31/32 - Wilson (32 in August)
* 29/30 - Monty (30 on July 1)
* 27/28 - Edwards (28 in Sept)

No doubt our brain trust will try to bring in some good young pitching, too, tho' it tends to be so costly and at least somewhat unpredictable.

Despite 4 consecutive playoff years, most of our core players are still quite young:
* 29 - Rizzo and Heyward (both turned 29 in August)
* 26 - Bryant and Contreras
* 25 - Baez (will turn 26 in December), Schwarber (will turn 26 in March)
* 24 - Almora and Happ (who turned only 24 in April and August, respectively)
Bote turned 25 in April and Russell played the entire season at age 24.

As for Russell, if Cubs are rather convinced he did the very bad stuff he's accused of, I'd guess he's gone pretty quickly...if they aren't convinced, they may still wish to move him after he gets at least somewhat hot.  After all, before his personal problems surfaced, in '16 he hit 21 HRs (95 RBIs) with 49 extra-base hits at the age of 22 (some in the biggest moments)! 

Some of the young Cub hitters will likely make significant improvements next season. One could well imagine Bryant coming back with a great season in '19 and some of Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Russell could have much better seasons, too, due to expected improvement as they move toward their peak years.

Of course, some will get hurt and/or regress for one reason or another.  It will be interesting to see if we do make a run at Machado or Harper or some other big FA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 03, 2018, 03:21:02 pm
Just seeing Rogers' suggestion that, following MLB's investigation, Russell will get 25+ game suspension. 

I'd guess Theo will conclude MLB did a thorough investigation...and Russell is as good as gone.  And he should be...no room on the team for such guys!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on October 03, 2018, 03:22:53 pm
40 games, retro to 9/21
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on October 03, 2018, 03:38:50 pm
This probably won't impact the Cubs because I doubt he'll still be in the organization by next spring, by just FYI...

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Should have breaking news on Addison Russell’s situation momentarily. Suspension forthcoming. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-40 games.


Yeah that might need to be moved to Cubs History before long.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 03, 2018, 04:05:33 pm
Some of the young Cub hitters will likely make significant improvements next season. ...some of Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Russell could have much better seasons, too, due to expected improvement as they move toward their peak years.....

This is the challenge.  It's going to be easy to roll out rationalizations:  some guys weren't entirely healthy, and our young guys got tired because they needed a day off in September. 

But I admit I do wonder.  Maybe I'm blinded by my eyes watching games, maybe it's recentism, and maybe I should get away what I saw watching games and should look at some statistical stuff.  But watching Schwarber and Happ, it's kind of hard to see how or why they should be much more productive, Schwarber especially, because it will be his year 5. 

Happ, maybe has a little more chance.  Think he's been trying to analyze and figure out why he can't hit much, maybe he's thinking too much and perhaps he'll hypothetically simplify to a see-it-and-let-it-rip approach and hypothetically end up blossoming into a .250 hitter or something.  But watching their swings, and how rarely they can hit strikes or fastballs, it's hard to really see why we should naturally expect a lot of improvement. 

I think one of the other factors with hitters is that sometimes with extended struggle, I suspect that can erode a guy's confidence.  A guy used to be good; but now you're not that good anymore, hard contact has become rare and flukey rather than normal, and you've tried everything you can and it doesn't help much?  Hard to swing with confidence when hard contact is so uncommon. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 04:32:48 pm
Russell's suspension does impact the Cubs, because it torpedoes whatever trade value he still has.

I've never been more divided about a manager than I am about Maddon.  On the one hand he's clearly great at managing a clubhouse and shielding his players from the media.  On the other, he's an abomination at handling a pitching staff and these inexplicable in-game decisions are really getting old.  Then there's the fact that if he's back, it's almost surely going to be on a contract extension because neither he nor Theo will want him here as a lame duck.  Is he full of himself?  Of course, but that in itself isn't really a decisive factor.

There's more of Dusty Baker in Joe Maddon than anyone would like to admit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 04:59:15 pm
But I admit I do wonder.  Maybe I'm blinded by my eyes watching games, maybe it's recentism, and maybe I should get away what I saw watching games and should look at some statistical stuff.  But watching Schwarber and Happ, it's kind of hard to see how or why they should be much more productive, Schwarber especially, because it will be his year 5. 

Happ, maybe has a little more chance.  Think he's been trying to analyze and figure out why he can't hit much, maybe he's thinking too much and perhaps he'll hypothetically simplify to a see-it-and-let-it-rip approach and hypothetically end up blossoming into a .250 hitter or something.  But watching their swings, and how rarely they can hit strikes or fastballs, it's hard to really see why we should naturally expect a lot of improvement. 

I think one of the other factors with hitters is that sometimes with extended struggle, I suspect that can erode a guy's confidence.  A guy used to be good; but now you're not that good anymore, hard contact has become rare and flukey rather than normal, and you've tried everything you can and it doesn't help much?  Hard to swing with confidence when hard contact is so uncommon. 

Schwarber's power was down this year.  His ISO was .229 vs .241 and .256 in 2015 and 2017.  His wRC+ was 115.  That tied for 63rd in MLB for qualified hitters and that is your 5-7th hitter.  Maybe he doesn't reach Rizzo levels, but he's still good.

Happ, like Baez before him needs to drop his K%.  Maybe he can, maybe he doesn't.  He has a career wRC+ of 109 and was 106 and he's basically a back up. 

Look at it this way, if you take the Red Sox team and guys with more than 250 PA.  Schwarber would rank 5th and Happ 7th in terms of wRC+.  On the Cubs they ranked 5th and 6th.  The difference between the Cubs and Red Sox is Betts and Martinez performed like superstars and Bryant and Rizzo didn't. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 03, 2018, 05:37:43 pm
Craig, don't forget that Schwarber, Almora and Happ have only 1,086, 855 and 751 MLB at bats, respectively.  Not a lot. 

Contreras has barely 1,100 ABs in his career.

Some scouts say it takes most good players 1,500 MLB at bats to perform against MLB pitching.  Javy had almost 1,200 ABs before this breakthrough season. 

Our guys have been around a while, so it's easy to forget how young they are.  Of course, not all improve a lot, but some do.  My best guess is that AT LEAST two of Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Contreras will take their offensive games to the next level (with more power) in the next year or two, though no real way of knowing which.  Another of those four may not figure it out offensively until age 28 - 30. 

If Russell gets his personal life straightened out, I won't be surprised if he returns to his 2016 hitting form or better. 

It usually takes time - and ABs - with good young players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 03, 2018, 06:25:17 pm
Replace Russell with Machado and with the likely bounce back of Bryant and Contreras you will have a fine offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 06:47:45 pm
I'm not sold on how likely that bounce back is for either guy. There's clearly something wrong with Bryant's shoulder above and beyond simple fatigue, and it sounds like surgery hasn't been ruled out.  And Contreras flat out regressed this season, above and beyond simple overuse.  Simply banking on stuff like that is taking a big gamb le.

As for Machado, obviously a great player but if signing him comes with an expectation that he plays SS, I'm out - he's already a liability there.  He's super young for an elite FA but it's scary to commit so many years and so much money to a guy whose value is so tied in to defense and is already regressing there.  Depending on the money of course, Harper may be a less risky option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 03, 2018, 06:57:51 pm
what are you guys figuring for payroll?  $250-270 or so?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 03, 2018, 07:07:59 pm
what are you guys figuring for payroll?  $250-270 or so?
I  just read that depending on who doesn't come back, the Twins could have only $24 million committed towards 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 07:35:16 pm
I'm pretty confident that the main problem for Contreras was fatigue. As some here have pointed out, he didn't allow himself to have a real offseason last year--he was immediately working on getting ready for the season. He caught far more than any other catcher in baseball this year...I looked it up about a month ago, and based on pitches caught, he was behind the plate for something like 8-10 full games worth more pitches than the second most active catcher in baseball. He had no All Star break.

And the numbers were there for the first 4 months of the season. After the game on August 1, he was hitting .283/.372/.458. The batting average and OBP were career highs (by 1 point and 15 points, respectively). The slugging was down from .494 over his first two seasons. But a part of that was that a few homers had turned into triples (he had 5 triples by that point this year; he had none in 2017 in about the same number of PAs). He had lost a few extra base hits since 2017, but nothing that would throw up any warning signs over a 384 PA sample when all the other numbers looked good. The fact that he just fell off a cliff for the last two months just fits with him wearing down.

Bryant, though...shoulder injuries are tricky. Especially vague shoulder issues that don't really have a clear diagnosis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 03, 2018, 08:08:40 pm
If a player is on a multiyear contract with an option year, the luxury tax "hit" for the guaranteed years is the AAV of the guaranteed years.  Does anyone know for certain what the luxury tax "hit" is for the option year(s)?  I presume it's simply the value of the option.  But can anyone confirm?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 08:22:01 pm
I’m less worried about Bryant’s shoulder healing if he doesn’t need surgery.  If Bryant has surgery then I’m worried about next year. Is it possible the Cubs medical staff missed something with multiple MRIs. Yes. Could it be a issue next year?  Yes, but it is much less scary without surgery.


Last year Mookie Betts had a wRC+ 106, Bogarts 96, Benintendi 102, Joc Pederson 100, Machado 103. Sometimes young guys struggle or deal with injury issues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 08:46:41 pm
Last year Mookie Betts had a wRC+ 106, Bogarts 96, Benintendi 102, Joc Pederson 100, Machado 103. Sometimes young guys struggle or deal with injury issues.

Three of those five had something in common with the Cubs' young hitters in 2018.

Part of a hitting coach's job is helping young players develop. I don't see how they can justify keeping Chili Davis around.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 09:05:57 pm
I believe what Theo said was something along the lines of “Do not believe he will need surgery but have not gotten the full medical report”, wasn’t it? That hardly rules out the possibility.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 09:14:31 pm
He said the current medical plan doesn’t include surgery and Kris will meet with the doctors soon for a recheck and that he still doesn’t expect it to include surgery.

The only reason surgery would be needed is if an MRI showed structural damage or his shoulder wasn’t improving. If his shoulder didn’t improve he would have never gotten back into game action.

Theo didn’t rule out surgery, but it is very unlikely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 09:18:50 pm
Is that like "If Strop's hammy hadn't improved he never would have gotten back on the mound"?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 09:32:28 pm
Three of those five had something in common with the Cubs' young hitters in 2018.

Part of a hitting coach's job is helping young players develop. I don't see how they can justify keeping Chili Davis around.

Maybe he's the problem maybe he isn't.  Here is their wRC+ under Chili

Mookie
2015 120
2016 136

Benintendi
2016 118 PA, 121

Bogaerts (pre Chili)
2013 50 PA, 85
2014 81
2015 (Chili) 111
2016 114
2017 injured wrist

Heck look at Harper 137, 115, 197, 111, 155, 135

Look at the Cubs this year guys Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, Almora and Russell where the guys that fell off.  4/5 of those guys had injuries and or over use confirmed.  The only guy that didn't is Almora and as bad as he played in the second half I wouldn't be shocked if he had something going on.

Happ was basically the same.

Baez, Zobrist, Heyward, Schwarber all improved over last year.

Development isn't linear.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 03, 2018, 10:09:42 pm
What was Russell's injury deal this year?  I know he had a sore knuckle late in the season.  Was his knuckle bothering him all year?  Or did he have a shoulder injury too? 

I hadn't actually realized he was injured all season.  That makes two years straight that were bad because of injuries?   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 10:34:33 pm
I love this idea that a Almora must have been hiding an injury when in fact, he was the exact same player he’s been every year since AA. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 10:41:25 pm
Don't worry, Almora's breakout is right around the corner.

Some people on this board will still be expecting that he'll turn into an All Star any day when he's 38 and has been out of baseball for 6 years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 03, 2018, 10:41:29 pm
I'm pretty confident that the main problem for Contreras was fatigue. As some here have pointed out, he didn't allow himself to have a real offseason last year--he was immediately working on getting ready for the season. He caught far more than any other catcher in baseball this year...I looked it up about a month ago, and based on pitches caught, he was behind the plate for something like 8-10 full games worth more pitches than the second most active catcher in baseball. He had no All Star break.

And the numbers were there for the first 4 months of the season. After the game on August 1, he was hitting .283/.372/.458. The batting average and OBP were career highs (by 1 point and 15 points, respectively). The slugging was down from .494 over his first two seasons. But a part of that was that a few homers had turned into triples (he had 5 triples by that point this year; he had none in 2017 in about the same number of PAs). He had lost a few extra base hits since 2017, but nothing that would throw up any warning signs over a 384 PA sample when all the other numbers looked good. The fact that he just fell off a cliff for the last two months just fits with him wearing down.

Bryant, though...shoulder injuries are tricky. Especially vague shoulder issues that don't really have a clear diagnosis.

I agree.  I am more confident of Contreras coming back to previous norms than I am about Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 10:51:56 pm
Almora has around 600 PA be around a league average hitter and 168 PA being worse than Darwin Barney. A league average hitter with + defense in CF has value.

The Cubs don’t need 8 guys with wRC+ of 130 to be an amazing offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 03, 2018, 10:58:49 pm
I didn't think Contreras seemed as good first half either.  Thought he struggled more often than he had in past, but that he'd had a couple of blazing bursts that lifted the composite numbers.  Yes, of course I realize that everybody's numbers are lifted by their hottest bursts.  But I thought that was much more extreme for Contreras first half. 

I say that not to be negative.  But that maybe there were indications he wasn't as good in April and May, when he shouldn't have been tired.  When August-September rolled around, those difficulties were amplified, and being both off in the first place plus tired besides was double-whammy.  But I guess I'm not super confident that giving an extra day off each weak next year will bring back 2016 Contreras. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 11:10:41 pm
What was Russell's injury deal this year?  I know he had a sore knuckle late in the season.  Was his knuckle bothering him all year?  Or did he have a shoulder injury too? 

I hadn't actually realized he was injured all season.  That makes two years straight that were bad because of injuries?   

I thought he had a leg issue, but he hurt his knuckle in around July 1 which is close enough to end of the first half.

First half he slashed .272/.345/.391 For a wRC+ 101. Second half .198/.246/.222 for a wRC+ 28.

Almora had a similar drop off. .319/.357/.438 for a wRC+ 115, to .232/.267/ .280 for w RC+ 47

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2018, 11:11:16 pm
Almora has around 600 PA be around a league average hitter and 168 PA being worse than Darwin Barney. A league average hitter with + defense in CF has value.


Yes, he does - some.  And that's exactly what Almora is, a league average hitter as long as it's mostly against lefties.  So inventing a supposed hidden injury to explain that is looking for a black cat in a dark room that isn't there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 03, 2018, 11:17:07 pm
From July 1 on Almora had a .616 OPS vs lefties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2018, 11:30:49 pm
For most of the first half, Almora's BABIP was approaching .400. His success was never going to last.

I just don't get what everyone sees in him. He's a great defender. He's been a mediocre hitter for most of his minor league career and all of his MLB career.

He's a 4th or 5th outfielder on a team that is looking to win a championship every year. He could be a second division starter, though. When the Cubs go back to accepting being a mediocre team most years, he's probably a better solution than Damon Buford.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 04, 2018, 12:35:31 am
I don't even think he's a great defender, personally.  Above-average is more like it.

I actually like Almora as a useful piece, because his skills play well if deployed judiciously.  Platoon vs. lefties in CF, 4th OF, defensive replacement, RH PH option.  Just don't try and get any more than that (444 ABs is way, way too many) out of him.  And if some GM is convinced you can, trade him and let them overpay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 04, 2018, 08:01:39 am
I  just read that depending on who doesn't come back, the Twins could have only $24 million committed towards 2019.

If Ray's trade Kevin keirermeir and vj Cron they will have every single player on the 25 man be a pre arb.... Payroll below 15 million.

Ray's are also getting ready to ask Hillsborough county for a 700 million tax increase for a new stadium. Their current lease is through 2027.

In 2019 they are projected to get 55 million in revenue sharing $$$.

Hope the Ray's move to Charlotte.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 04, 2018, 08:17:02 am
Willson's OPS by month this season:  March/April: .767; May: .869; June: .731; July: .876; August: .623; September/October: .465.
                                    last season:                    .699;         .787           .760          1.019             1.185                               .776.


He was fine at the beginning of the season this year.  But he failed to sustain a relatively hot July the way he did last season.  If he had put up anything close to the numbers he did last year in the second half, we almost certainly would have won the Division.  Unless he has an undisclosed injury, exhaustion seems like the most likely cause.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 04, 2018, 09:12:11 am
For most of the first half, Almora's BABIP was approaching .400. His success was never going to last.

I just don't get what everyone sees in him. He's a great defender. He's been a mediocre hitter for most of his minor league career and all of his MLB career.

He's a 4th or 5th outfielder on a team that is looking to win a championship every year. He could be a second division starter, though. When the Cubs go back to accepting being a mediocre team most years, he's probably a better solution than Damon Buford.

Who had a higher BABIP Christian Yelich for 2018 or Almora in the first half?
 Almora had a high BABIP and his results where going to be less, sure. The real problem was his ISO went from .120 to .048.

He’s better than Buford and he’s better than a 4th/5th OF. If his offense stays the same as this year he’s Jackie Bradley Jr, should the Red Sox be cutting his playing time?

Almora had 12 Outs Above Average this year, which was 8th in MLB. Cain has 17 with about the equivalent of 22+ extra games in CF. Almora doesn’t have to be an All-Star to have value as a starter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 04, 2018, 04:47:48 pm
Hopefully Theo doesn't see Almora as an everyday player too, because he's not one on a contending team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 04, 2018, 04:52:44 pm
Hopefully Theo doesn't see Almora as an everyday player too, because he's not one on a contending team.

You and I have never seen eye to eye on Almora. I think he could well be an every day player on a contending team. But I agree that he probably should not be an every day player for the Cubs, given their existing roster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 04, 2018, 05:30:44 pm
I think you saw what happened this season when he was overexposed. 250-300 ABs in situational deployment is the way to go with him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 04, 2018, 05:40:30 pm
Maybe Almora will never hit better than he has in his first few hundred MLB ABs; however, it's worth noting that he just finished his 24-year old season.

MOST guys hit better (and with more power) as they near 27-28 with more MLB seasoning and greater strength.  Some take it to an entirely different, better level.

We shall see with Almora...and Happ and Schwarber and Contreras and... 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 04, 2018, 07:14:40 pm
Most guys who hit better at 27-28 have minor league numbers that suggest the possibility.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on October 04, 2018, 07:28:28 pm
And some do not...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 04, 2018, 07:35:38 pm
And some do not...

And some successful SP don’t throw 90+ fastballs. Most do. I’m not sitting around waiting for Zastryzny to develop into the next Kyle Hendricks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on October 05, 2018, 08:31:01 am
The Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and fellow NL East foe Philadelphia Phillies all have higher odds to sign Harper than the Nats.

The Cubs are the overwhelming favorite to sign the six-time All-Star, with even odds right now. Rumors of Harper going to the Windy City are not new, as the possibility to reunite with Little League teammate and close friend Kris Bryant while playing for an annual World Series contender is widely intriguing to him.

After the Cubs, there is a tremendous dropoff, as the Dodgers have the second highest odds at +500. The Phillies come in at +550 odds, while the Yankees are just slightly behind them at +600.

The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, and San Francisco Giants are all long shots to land Harper.

While it is way to early to have a good idea where Harper will play next, the Bovada oddsmakers have one clear favorite.

MLB Free agency begins on Nov. 2.

Updated odds for which team Bryce Harper will be on for the first game of 2019 (@BovadaOfficial):

Cubs EVEN
LAD +500
PHI +550
NYY +600
WSH +700
BOS +1100
LAA +1200
SF +1600
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 05, 2018, 08:47:46 am
May as well ask - what number would you be willing to go to for Harper?  I'll kick it off - $7/200, reluctantly.  And I suspect that wouldn't be enough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 05, 2018, 08:56:38 am
Does anyone know how close we are to the luxury tax level?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 05, 2018, 08:59:16 am
I think Harper wants 300 million and ten years. Don't know if he'll get it, but I don't see him being happy with a 7 year deal. If they do give him a big deal I just hope it doesn't include early opt outs. Those are solely in favor of the player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on October 05, 2018, 08:59:35 am
May as well ask - what number would you be willing to go to for Harper?  I'll kick it off - $7/200, reluctantly.  And I suspect that wouldn't be enough.

10 years / $350M with opt outs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 05, 2018, 09:04:11 am
Harper is obviously an impact hitter, and very young for a FA.  But his defense has seemingly declined already if defensive metrics (which are suspect of course) are to be believed - and if it's true, it's puzzling.  And he's only ever had a .900 OPS twice in his career, though both times were way over.  He's going to be just 26 next season I know, but - 10/300?  I don't see that.  He may get it, but I hope it's not from us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 05, 2018, 09:13:58 am
10/300 with an opt out after year 3 and 6.

Opt outs can be good. if you can end up with Harper for 3/90 how is that a bad thing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 05, 2018, 12:31:13 pm
Just wait until Chili Davis gets a hold of him!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 05, 2018, 03:58:51 pm
Damn I dont want anything to do with Harper's contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 05, 2018, 04:14:55 pm
As soon as we sign Harper, we can trade Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on October 05, 2018, 04:58:11 pm
Damn I dont want anything to do with Harper's contract.

Good news, you don’t have to pay any of it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 05, 2018, 06:22:05 pm
The production of several Cubs players declined quite a bit this year, and everyone is convinced that they will never return to prior performance levels.

Harper's production declined quite a bit this year, and most people expect him to immediately bounce back to prior performance levels.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 05, 2018, 06:25:28 pm
With the new Cubs TV network, it seems like they should be joining the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox in the category of teams who don't really care about the luxury tax. Once every 3-5 years, they'll try to dip below it to reset the penalties. But even a record-setting Harper contract shouldn't rule out other big moves (such as keeping Bryant or Baez) in the future.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 05, 2018, 06:42:19 pm
Keep in mind the new CBA is coming when the union is expected to play hardball after giving up the farm in the last deal. If they can get a little relief from the luxury tax that would make things better for the suddenly cash rich Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 05, 2018, 06:45:33 pm
The current TV agreement goes through 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 05, 2018, 07:09:21 pm
You almost have to believe the Cubs are going to be serious players on either Harper or Machado, even if things eventually get too rich for their blood. The question is probably which one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 05, 2018, 08:48:03 pm
I assume they're going to be serious players on both. I don't think there's any circumstance where they sign both--they'll have a preference for one, and they'll have serious enough conversations to be able to quickly pivot to the other if their first choice signs somewhere else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 05, 2018, 09:20:29 pm
Jeff will get this closer, but I'm guessing the payroll might increase by ~$40 million just by keeping the guys they've got? 

1.  Hamels: paying him all year, big increase
2.  Bryant A2 arb raises.  (even if Bryant's year wasn't that good.)
3.  Hendricks A2 arb raise.  Big. 
3.  Baez:  A1, big raise relative to $0.65
4.  Schwarber;
Edwards;
Montgomery are all A1 arb guys now; they won't be playing for $0.6K anymore, so those will add up even if they aren't getting Baez A1 salary.
5.  Russell is A2, if they keep him. 
6.  Kintzler, whole year of his salary.

So a whole lot of built-in payroll inflation just to stand pat, before you even start talking Machado or Harper. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 05, 2018, 09:27:52 pm
Craig, here are my drunken estimates for our arb eligibles.  You - and others - please weigh in.

OF   Kyle Schwarber     $3,000,000
IF   Kris Bryant     $13,000,000
IF   Addison Russell     $3,600,000
IF   Javier Baez     $4,500,000
IF   Tommy La Stella  $1,500,000
SP   Kyle Hendricks     $8,500,000
RP   Mike Montgomery $2,500,000
RP   Carl Edwards Jr.    $2,000,000
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 05, 2018, 09:29:02 pm
Russell will be gone. If they can't find a trade for him by the arb deadline, he'll be non-tendered.

I think Kintzler will be gone somehow. Maybe he'll opt out (he has a $5 million player option--he may think he can find more than that). If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands.

They'll ultimately figure out some kind of multi-year deal for Hamels, and it'll cost less next year than just picking up the option.

I think Schwarber, Montgomery, and Edwards are all in play in the right trade this offseason, so one or more of those salaries might not impact the payroll either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 05, 2018, 09:34:25 pm
Before option and Arbs are factored in Cots has them $61.393 million below the tax threshold of $206 million. Cot’s had them almost $14 million under the $197 million tax threshold this year.

Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler contracts would about pay for Hamels.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 05, 2018, 09:49:52 pm
I dont think they'll just release Addison.

If nobody wants him (and somebody will) we'll just keep him.

I do believe we'd like to get rid of him though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 05, 2018, 10:01:18 pm
Think some of that is a little too optimistic. 
1.  "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is? 
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange them for somebody else's repulsive contract. 

2.  Cots:  Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're good?  When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5?  I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just asking.  Or maybe I don't understand their spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options.  But, I htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of either Q or Strop. 
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml

3.  Jeff:  Your numbers are usually pretty good.  I might've guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks? 
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11 A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8? 
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 05, 2018, 10:26:01 pm
If some team thinks Kintzler's true talent is closer to the version that was closing for the Twins a season and a half ago, $5 million isn't much to take on. It also doesn't take too much of an ego for a player with recent success to think he can make more than that on the open market.

I think they can dump a pretty good portion of Chatwood's contract. He was very popular on the free agent market last year, so it's possible some other team will still want to take a chance on him. And if the Cubs eat enough, he's a good buy low guy for someone like the Tigers who have money but few payroll commitments (and could flip him easily at the deadline if he pitches well). Or maybe the Padres or Angels, who have very weak pitching staffs, and should probably prefer a high risk high reward guy to a similarly priced bottom of rotation free agent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 05, 2018, 10:34:42 pm
Laughable to think Kintzler would decline his option or that another team would take him. We’ll either have to pay down 3 million or so or throw in a decent prospect to get some other team to absorb that deal.

As for Hamels, I do think some sort of multi-year renegotiated deal is the most likely solution, though it would be great I’d it were no longer than 2 years. Most likely three.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 05, 2018, 11:41:56 pm
Think some of that is a little too optimistic. 
1.  "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is? 
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange them for somebody else's repulsive contract. 

2.  Cots:  Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're good?  When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5?  I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just asking.  Or maybe I don't understand their spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options.  But, I htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of either Q or Strop. 
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml

3.  Jeff:  Your numbers are usually pretty good.  I might've guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks? 
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11 A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8? 
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5. 

1) I mean it will take prospects. A non-contender could take Kintzler and a prospect for a $5 million chance he could get flipped at the deadline. The prospect cost wouldn’t be that high. He can at least eat innings for them. Chatwood at 2/$25 isn’t horrible for a fifth starter and if you think you can fix his control issues he could have some value. He’d take a better prospect, but you aren’t looking at a top prospect.
2) MLB Trade rumors usually does pretty bang on arb numbers in a month or two. I’m not sure how the options are handled for the luxury tax. Contracts are AAV so Quintana was $4.2 million luxury tax number vs his $8.85 million salary. I think his option is $9 million ish so I’m not sure if that gets averaged vs it being just considered a 1 year contract.

The numbers I took where from the luxury tax tab which is different than the salary tab. I’m not too concerned about the Cubs having salary limit vs them going too high on the luxury tax.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on October 06, 2018, 08:05:29 am
I say the Cubs sign both Machado and Harper
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 06, 2018, 11:13:18 am
Good luck with that one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 06, 2018, 11:15:05 am
With the new Cubs TV network, it seems like they should be joining the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox in the category of teams who don't really care about the luxury tax. Once every 3-5 years, they'll try to dip below it to reset the penalties. But even a record-setting Harper contract shouldn't rule out other big moves (such as keeping Bryant or Baez) in the future.

I don't think that money would be the issue.  But I believe that reduction of draft and International signing ability is something that this front office would take very seriously.  I have not reviewed the rules, but if it is only a problem of money the first year, it would not be a concern, but if it means the loss of one or two first round draft choices and the inability to sign tot international free agents, I doubt that they would allow a long term contract to get them into a bind.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on October 06, 2018, 12:05:05 pm
I don't think that money would be the issue.  But I believe that reduction of draft and International signing ability is something that this front office would take very seriously.  I have not reviewed the rules, but if it is only a problem of money the first year, it would not be a concern, but if it means the loss of one or two first round draft choices and the inability to sign tot international free agents, I doubt that they would allow a long term contract to get them into a bind.

You are correct.  They will exceed the luxury tax for a year, but they are very concerned about the ramifications for exceeding the luxury tax in consecutive seasons.  Then again if they have longer contracts the hit is less.  Also some contracts will come off the books or be reduced after next season.  Zobrist will go from 16.5 down to 12.5 this coming year and then 0 the following year.  Lester will drop from 27.5 to an even 20M in 2020.  Between those 2 that saves 20M.  Add in the $9M added prior to the luxury tax for this season and we may have more wiggle room even before the next collective bargaining agreement.

For this coming year Darvish will drop from 25M to 20M but then goes back to 22M in 2020.

Don't be surprised to see the team go over the luxury tax this year, but then try to wiggle down under it in 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 06, 2018, 12:34:33 pm
A player's salary dropping over the course of a multiyear contract is irrelevant for luxury tax purposes.

The luxury tax impact is the average annual value of the guaranteed portion of the contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 06, 2018, 03:29:09 pm
You are correct.  They will exceed the luxury tax for a year, but they are very concerned about the ramifications for exceeding the luxury tax in consecutive seasons.  Then again if they have longer contracts the hit is less.  Also some contracts will come off the books or be reduced after next season.  Zobrist will go from 16.5 down to 12.5 this coming year and then 0 the following year.  Lester will drop from 27.5 to an even 20M in 2020.  Between those 2 that saves 20M.  Add in the $9M added prior to the luxury tax for this season and we may have more wiggle room even before the next collective bargaining agreement.

For this coming year Darvish will drop from 25M to 20M but then goes back to 22M in 2020.

Don't be surprised to see the team go over the luxury tax this year, but then try to wiggle down under it in 2020.

I have no idea how to verify it, but I believe Jeff is correct.  My understanding was that the hit to the luxury tax is based on the average of the guaranteed years, and will continue until the contract is fulfilled or transferred to another team.  And if their payroll will go up substantially this year just because of those entering arbitration, I expect the increase next year will be even greater.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 06, 2018, 08:19:15 pm
Watching the playoffs makes one realize - sadly - how talent deficient we are.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 06, 2018, 10:14:41 pm
I thought you were pretty good at watching.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on October 07, 2018, 09:34:31 am
Kimbrel and/or David Robertson
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 07, 2018, 09:48:53 am
Wouldn't be shocked to see Theo try and buy low-ish on Andrew Miller.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 07, 2018, 01:08:32 pm
Miller would be interesting, but it depends on what is going on with his knee.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bluebufoon on October 07, 2018, 02:54:00 pm
Don't the Cubs have the option of opting-out on Jason Heyward's contract this off-season ?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 07, 2018, 03:03:16 pm
Don't the Cubs have the option of opting-out on Jason Heyward's contract this off-season ?
The 2018 option is Heyward's.  In 2019 it applies if he reaches 550 plate appearances.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 07, 2018, 06:56:38 pm
There are no club buyouts anywhere in J-Hey's contract, are there?

One element of going after Bryce, of course, is that you're going to have to play Heyward in CF (or bench him) for the rest of his deal.  He can play there of course, but he might not be thrilled about it.  And will he still be a decent defensive CF in three years?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 07, 2018, 08:15:35 pm
He’d be 32 so there shouldn’t be a ton of decline and if he can stay league average-ish with the bat it plays a lot better in CF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 07, 2018, 08:53:50 pm
An awful lot of guys decline precipitously in CF by their early 30's.  It's a serious worry.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 08, 2018, 10:17:08 am
True.  Not so much for those that can play a decent RF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2018, 11:35:07 am
An awful lot of guys decline precipitously in CF by their early 30's.  It's a serious worry.

How old is the MLB leader in DRS and UZR/150 at the CF position in 2018?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 08, 2018, 04:23:30 pm
How does citing the stats of 1 guy have any relevance?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 08, 2018, 10:26:45 pm
That maybe elite defenders can still play defense at 32, and they aren’t destined to decline.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 09, 2018, 12:00:35 am
"It was cooler than normal last Tuesday.  Ergo, climate change is a myth."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2018, 08:49:42 am
Edmonds didn’t decline until 35. How about you cite one elite defender that declined a lot before age 32 that wasn’t due to conditioning or injury?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 09, 2018, 04:10:33 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/09/the-initial-2019-cubs-arbitration-projections-are-out-bryant-baez-hendricks-russell-more/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 09, 2018, 04:43:25 pm
Thanks blue.  Those are pleasantly modest, lower than I expected. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 09, 2018, 05:42:42 pm
ArizonaPhil's take on 2019 Cubs payroll and free agent possibilities:

So the Cubs will be about $10M inder the 2019 Competitive Balance Tax ("Luxury Tax") threshold even if they sign no free-agents, and that's even after they decline the 2019 $20M option on Cole Hamels (which they almost certainly will). They would save about $5M AAV by non-tendering Addison Russell (which would get their AAV+PBC down to $190M), but otherwise there won't be much wiggle-room unless the Cubs are able to unload contracts in a trade.

It's possible that the Cubs will attempt to trade one or two arbitration-eligibles like Kyle Schwarber and/or Mike Montgomery for prospects, but even doing that won't save more than about another $5M AAV combined, and they probably couldn't get "A"-level prospects back for either player. And while Jose Quintana might seem like a trade-candidate because he is making $10.5M (presuming the Cubs pick-up his club option) in 2019, the AAV of his contract is only $4.45M because he signed his multi-year deal when he was still pre-arbitration, so there isn't much savings in 2019 payroll AAV if the Cubs trade Quintana. 

Otherwise, unless they can find takers for Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Kintzler, Brian Duensing, and/or Drew Smyly (whose combined contracts are worth $25M AAV), or eat a large chunk of his salary ($23M AAV) and trade Heyward (who now can be traded - see comment below), the Cubs are pretty-much stuck payroll-wise going into the post- 2018 off-season.

And so unless they are OK with exceeding the CBT threshold (and suffer the penalties that go along with that), there is almost no way they can sign a free-agent like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to a high-AAV contract this coming off-season, and in fact they probably couldn't even re-sign somebody like RHRP Jesse Chavez without exceeding the CBT threshold unless they non-tender Russell or trade Schwarber and Montgomery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 09, 2018, 06:37:40 pm
Why is CBT for '19 even being debated?  Zero chance we don't go over it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 09, 2018, 06:49:46 pm
Yeah, the Cubs have the cash to do exactly what the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox do. Based just on financial penalties, they should be over the threshold most years going forward.

From MLB.com (link below), it appears that the only draft penalty occurs if they go at least $40 million over (which would be spending at least $246 million next year). And the only penalty would be that their first pick in the draft would drop 10 spots (unless the Cubs have one of the first 6 picks--then their second pick would drop 10 spots instead). That shouldn't be a big concern for the Cubs either--dropping from the 26th pick in the draft to the 36th pick isn't a big deal if it means you can sign Harper instead of, say, AJ Pollock. The Cubs shouldn't be picking high enough in the draft for that to be a really meaningful penalty.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 10, 2018, 10:22:39 am
It seems like everybody is focusing on what Cubs hitters are going to get moved in the offseason, but I think the pitching is more interesting.

If the Cubs bring back Hamels that sets the rotation up for
Lester
Hamels
Darvish
Hendricks
Quintana

Then at the major league level you have
Montgomery
Smyly
Chatwood

In the minors at AA or above
Alzolay
Steele
Lange

Throw in Mills who I believe is out of options and that is going to make the rotation and bullpen crowded with guys I'm not sure you want to lose, but I'm not sure they really fit in a bullpen either.  Theo at his press conference said he doesn't want to trade any starting pitching, but doesn't he kind of have if the bring back Hamels?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 10, 2018, 10:37:14 am
One of the hitters is going to get traded away to get someone to take chatwood's salary off their hands.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 10, 2018, 11:17:31 am
Len Kasper

Courtesy @joe_sheehan, the team that hits more HRs in this post-season is 11-0 & there's been a 3.5% increase in runs via the HR compared to the regular season. Soooooooo.......yeah. Kinda ruins some analysis when it boils down to "Just hit a bunch of homers," but that's kinda it


Also

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/10/report-cubs-offered-kris-bryant-extension-well-north-of-200-million-but-bryant-declined/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on October 10, 2018, 11:22:44 am
Man's gotta feed his family...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 10, 2018, 12:20:23 pm
..the team that hits more HRs in this post-season is 11-0 & there's been a 3.5% increase in runs via the HR compared to the regular season. Soooooooo.......yeah. Kinda ruins some analysis when it boils down to "Just hit a bunch of homers," but that's kinda it

Think the 3.5% is kinda trivial and small-sample meaningless, probably?
* Does he mean 3.5% higher than MLB normal (which includes no-power teams like Cubs and Padres factored in? 
*Or is the 3.5% higher than what the big-power HR-hitting teams like LA, Milwaukee, Boston, and Houston themselves were doing in the regular season? 

I think he's meaning that it's slightly higher than league-wise normal, but probably not high relative to what was normal for the final four during the regular season?  I'm sure all the final four teams were way more than 3.5% above regular-season league average during the season, right? 
 
Like I always say, against post-season pitching it's harder than ever to bundle multiple singles and doubles in a single inning. 

Post-season pitchers still make mistakes, just not as many.   So I think the relative frequency of scoring via multiple BIP-hits is seriously reduced, and the relative importance of the occasional HR becomes more determinative than ever.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 10, 2018, 01:01:04 pm
From 1968 to 2018 seasons most HR
2017 6105
2000 5693
2016 5610
2018 5585
1999 5528

1987 is #23 and is the first year that isn't late 90's or in the 2000.  Some of that is there are more teams so here are the ISO
Top 5 ISO
2017 .171
2000 .167
2001 .163
1999 .163
2006 .163

1987 jumps all the way to #19

Just for fun from 1968 to 1983
1977 is tops with 3644 HR and an ISO .137
1981 is the lowest with 1781 HR and the lowest ISO is 1968 at .104

More fun with numbers.  The Yankees hit 267 HR this year.  That would be 14.99% of the total hit in MLB in 1981. The Marlins where last at 128 in 1981.  The A's led 1981 with 104 HR and the Yankees were second at 100.  The Padres where last at 32. The Yankees had the highest ISO in 1981 at .139, it would have ranked 28th in 2018 by .001 above the Tigers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on October 10, 2018, 01:13:36 pm
Kaplan reporting that Bryant turned down a contract extension worth "well-north" of $200M. Wow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 10, 2018, 01:59:29 pm
Kaplan reporting that Bryant turned down a contract extension worth "well-north" of $200M. Wow.

Quote from: Bleacher Nation
Dave Kaplan just dropped a bomb on ESPN1000 today, reporting that he’s heard from a source that the Cubs approached Kris Bryant and his agent Scott Boras “in the last several months” about a “massive extension” worth “well north of $200 million.” That extension was – again, according to the source – turned down by Bryant and Boras, who preferred instead to go year-to-year in arbitration.

A lot more

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/10/report-cubs-offered-kris-bryant-extension-well-north-of-200-million-but-bryant-declined/



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 10, 2018, 04:32:31 pm
Wouldn't shock me to see Quintana dealt for either pitching prospects or offense if the Cubs really believe Smyly is capable of pitching like he did pre-surgery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 10, 2018, 04:41:57 pm
I don't think Quintana would bring much back at this point in a trade after his down year. I'd also be very reluctant to trade a reliably healthy starter when you don't really know what to expect from Lester or Darvish going forward.

Smyly has been far better as a reliever in his career. He was a difference maker in that role in 2013 as a Tiger; he's been more of an average #3/#4 starter type when in the rotation. They should pencil him in as a reliever.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 10, 2018, 04:49:37 pm
Well, that's what Quintana is right now.  And Quintana won't bring nearly what we paid for him, obviously, but he's a guy that does have at least some positive trade value.  Trading Chatwood now to me makes no sense.  You try and fix him to the point where he can at least be rotation depth.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 10, 2018, 06:22:13 pm
Yeah, the Cubs have the cash to do exactly what the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox do. Based just on financial penalties, they should be over the threshold most years going forward.

From MLB.com (link below), it appears that the only draft penalty occurs if they go at least $40 million over (which would be spending at least $246 million next year). And the only penalty would be that their first pick in the draft would drop 10 spots (unless the Cubs have one of the first 6 picks--then their second pick would drop 10 spots instead). That shouldn't be a big concern for the Cubs either--dropping from the 26th pick in the draft to the 36th pick isn't a big deal if it means you can sign Harper instead of, say, AJ Pollock. The Cubs shouldn't be picking high enough in the draft for that to be a really meaningful penalty.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

If that is the only penalty, then I agree that it will have very little impact on what free agents decide to try to sign.  I had heard it reported differently, but do not remember where the reports came from.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 10, 2018, 06:28:51 pm
If the Cubs really offered Bryant the amount mentioned, it means one thing, at least.  They and their medical staff are not too worried about the long term effects of his shoulder problem.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 10, 2018, 06:56:06 pm
You knew Boras wasnt gonna cut us any deals.

Kris is betting on himself and you gotta respect that.

We often forget that this is their job and they like most of us arent loyal to an employer but instead loyal to themselves.

Ive often figured KB longed to get back to California anyway.

Im no fan of any certain player.

Im a fan of the Cubs.

If its in our best interest to send him down the road since he wont sign an extension then so be it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 10, 2018, 07:12:29 pm
Signing Kris Bryant to a multi-year deal would be helpful if the Cubs are serious about going after Bryce Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 10, 2018, 07:37:06 pm
When does Bryant become a free agent?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 10, 2018, 07:40:45 pm
'22.  Under those circumstances and given the year he had, anything over $200 seems quite feasible, but this is Boras we're talking about.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 10, 2018, 07:40:59 pm
3 more years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 11, 2018, 08:34:40 am
I love Bryant, but maybe Javy is the guy we should be thinking about locking up long term.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 08:51:22 am
Sharma and Kaplan are in a bitchslapping contest on twitter about that Bryant report.  It's pretty hilarious.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 11, 2018, 10:32:59 am
I wonder if the Cubs could do a multi-player trade for Andrelton Simmons. Weird is he will be available as the Angels look to shake things up. Would a package of Schwarber, Russell and Montgomery be too much or not enough?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 11, 2018, 10:37:20 am
Why would the angels trade him? he single handedly fixed their infield defense issues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 04:24:43 pm
One of my best friends at my old job is a huge Angels fan and very knowledgeable, and he's convinced they love Simmons to death.  He's a building block, not a trade chip.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 11, 2018, 04:35:20 pm
Makes sense they would keep him. I wonder why there is so much speculation that they would move him? Just internet smoke I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 11, 2018, 06:26:17 pm
Chili Davis has been fired.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 11, 2018, 06:27:35 pm
Well...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 11, 2018, 06:34:51 pm
I wonder if they’ll try and bring Hinskie back from the Angels.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 06:50:55 pm
Teams love firing hitting and pitching coaches.  Cheap, and makes a lot of noise.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 11, 2018, 07:38:22 pm
Davis was the front office’s hand-picked guy, though. Getting rid of him reflects pretty poorly on them. Front offices aren’t always willing to admit those mistakes.

Other tweets are now saying that feedback from the players on exit interviews was bad and that was a major part of the decision.

In any case, that’s the easy move of the three they need to make this offseason. Still need a top of the lineup type and one of the big two free agents.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 07:40:05 pm
One element that’s intriguing in all this is, how could the Cubs screw up this badly with Davis?  Did Maddon push hard to get Mallee fired and Davis hired, as some have reported? If so this is another indication that things between he and the front office are continuing to sour.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 11, 2018, 07:42:34 pm
#Cubs source says that player exit-interview feedback against Chili Davis was "too strong to ignore," and it "would have been counterproductive" to go into next season with him. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 11, 2018, 08:07:11 pm
One element that’s intriguing in all this is, how could the Cubs screw up this badly with Davis?  Did Maddon push hard to get Mallee fired and Davis hired, as some have reported? If so this is another indication that things between he and the front office are continuing to sour.

I haven’t seen any reports that Maddon really pushed this. My impression has always been that the decision to get Davis came more from the front office than from Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 11, 2018, 08:12:41 pm
Maddon does like going the other way on offense. I think it was a combo of the front office buying into situational hitting being a problem, strike outs etc...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 08:30:29 pm
I haven’t seen any reports that Maddon really pushed this. My impression has always been that the decision to get Davis came more from the front office than from Maddon.

There were plenty of reports.  One thing that's indisputable is that Theo (with quite notable unambiguity) said *Any coach Joe wants back will be back.", and a few days later Mallee was fired.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 11, 2018, 10:00:22 pm
Chili Davis has been fired.

Wow.  Didn't take long, I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 11, 2018, 10:25:28 pm
I think that someone said that Bryant has three more years before he becomes a free agent.  If that is true, it makes the contract offer substantially different than I first thought.  I never saw specifics reported, but lets take numbers at random. 

Lets say that he plays for the Cubs for the next 3 years, and earns through arbitration 14, 17 and 20 million each year.  At age 29, he might then get a 7 year contract at 30 million per year and hit the free agent market again at age 36.

On the other hand, if he gets a contract now from the Cubs for  years at AAV of 30 million per year, that means he will get an extra 39 million dollars over the next three years, and hit the free agent market again at age 33.  No matter what the actual numbers are, that has to be a difficult thing to pass up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 11, 2018, 10:47:25 pm
#Cubs source says that player exit-interview feedback against Chili Davis was "too strong to ignore," and it "would have been counterproductive" to go into next season with him. 

Interesting.   

Certainly deeg you're right; easy to fire a coach, and to tell yourself that the talent you've assembled is better than it's performed, and that a new coach is going to bring it out. 

But the limits that Schwarber, Happ, Heyward and Russell have to try to work around are probably pretty much beyond coaching.

Even so, I'm glad they made the move.  The offense was poor and got worse. 

And the prioritization on opposite-field seemed excessive and counterproductive.  A guy like Russell isn't going to hit the ball square very often at all; but you'd think using the whole field would make sense, including left.  Not using opposite field is a problem, obviously, but not sure why not using the pull side is any less so? 

Think it's good that if a mistake was made, that they move on.  (Unfortunately lots easier to move on from a coaching mistake than from a Chatwood mistake.....) 

But yeah, Theo was a huge opposite-way guy.  IN his press conference, in addition to talking up the first half (when Almora was excellent and Heyward was hot) as if that's what should be true always, he also was all positive about the increase in opposite-field hitting. 

So I suspect Theo and Maddon were mutual drivers to want opposite field and to get an opposite-field hitting coach.   



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 11, 2018, 11:18:34 pm
I don't think they had a choice in making the move - the results speak volumes.  I just think the whole fiasco reflects badly on Joe, Theo and the organization.  And firing the scapegoat is the easy part.  The hard part is finding the right replacement, and the harder part is if you do that and it still doesn't fix the problem.  Then there's no option but to look at the players - and the mirror.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on October 11, 2018, 11:42:11 pm
Quote
My impression has always been that the decision to get Davis came more from the front office than from Maddon.

This is what I read. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 12, 2018, 07:29:19 am
I agree with that, Davis seemed primarily a Theo guy more than Maddon. 
In his press conference, Theo said that he'd been a hard worker.  Heh heh, kinda faint praise, seemed pretty evident he was going to be replaced. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 12, 2018, 09:18:20 am
One way to look at the Davis situation is that certain Cub hitters (e.g., Russell, Almora, Happ, Contreras) simply do not have the talent to be able to take the next step offensively, and that there was nothing Davis could have been expected to do to change that.  The Cubs with the requisite talent (e.g., Baez, Rizzo, Zobrist, Schwarber) did fine under Davis (although Schwarber's advancement was limited).  Another way to look at it would be that Davis has a very specific hitting philosophy and that some of the Cub young players have skills that don't fit that philosophy.  In that case, Davis' job would be to help those players maximize the skills that they do have, something that did not happen.

If you accept the first point of view, you look to trade some of these young players before their value drops further (I don't include Contreras in that group).  If you accept the second point of view, changing hitting coaches to find someone better at maximizing the potential of players with limited offensive skills makes sense. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 12, 2018, 09:33:17 am
Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney each have articles on the Davis firing.  To my mind, the  difference between the two articles is a good example of the difference between the two writers. I've always thought Mooney had a tendency to go for a somewhat more provocative/sensationalist and not-particularly-in-depth approach, whereas Sharma has always struck me as far more thoughtful, analytical and nuanced in his approach. Judge for yourselves.

Mooney
https://theathletic.com/584702/2018/10/11/what-firing-chili-davis-says-about-the-myth-of-the-cubs-way/

Sharma
https://theathletic.com/584840/2018/10/12/with-chili-davis-gone-on-cubs-to-fix-offensive-issues/?source=dailyemail




Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on October 12, 2018, 10:12:10 am
We don’t necessarily need an opposite field hitting coach as much as we need a hit the damn ball where it’s pitched coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 12, 2018, 12:15:35 pm
Jesse Rogers named Andy Haines, Eric Hinskie, Anthony Iapoce and Ross as possible replacements for Davis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 12, 2018, 01:23:48 pm
Thanks for those links, Ron.  Those were both interesting and good articles.  Certainly Mooney was more provocative. 

Sharma had a nice tweet quoted, that I hadn't seen presented that way before: 
Quote
#Cubs 2018 offense
(MLB Ranks)
                      Pre All-Star     Post All-Star
Runs/game    5.12 (4th)         4.07 (23rd)
OBP                .345 (1st)         .316 (17th)
SLG                 .426 (7th)        .389 (27th)
Ground Ball%  44.8% (14th)  49.2% (1st)


That's pretty telling, having been 1st in ground-ball rate and 27th slugging post-break. 


Still, I think it's a dangerous premise to view the pre stats as the natural and ought-to-be numbers, and the post-AS as the outlier.  I've mentioned this before, but I think there were at least four things that inflated the pre-break numbers:
1. Almora.  Flukishly and non-sustainably good 1st half.
2. Heyward:  Same.
3. Bote. 
4. Cubs scored about 40 runs in hot-weather weekend versus the Twins pitching badly.  I wonder how the pre-post numbers would compare if you deleted that series from the pre stats; or added that series to the post stats?  My point here is that I'm not sure the pre/post contrast would otherwise look as bipolar and dramatic? 


Looking ahead, I don't see a ton of reason to to expect Heyward, Almora, or Bote to reproduce their first-half hitting. 


Mooney has some great quotes from post-17 Theo, including "have an adjustable swing, an adjustable approach for those situations".  And Sharma from Theo this month: "players who do certain things at 22 and 23, should be progressing into a better, more productive phase of their career at 24, 25, and 26."   


I wonder if Theo's selection of players like Schwarber, Russell, Happ, and Bryant just isn't really conducive to "adjustable swing, adjustable approach"?  Not sure it's really in their skillset?  reb would often note the importance of making adjustments; I'm not sure Russell, Happ, Schwarber, Bote, and Heyward have the capacity to adjust to what scouting has ID'd as vulnerabilities? 


Think maybe the "fastball up" revolution has been particularly unkind to Happ and Schwarbs, and it's unclear that they can successfully adjust? 


4 things could sure help, though:
1.  Bryant being back as a >.900 guy
2.  Adding Harper or Machado
3.  Getting Contreras back as a good hitter.   
4.  Getting some anti-awful regression from Schwarber and Russell in terms of clutch situations. 



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 12, 2018, 01:52:05 pm
From Mooney's article, maybe it's kind of snarky comment, but I admit it sure rings true to me:
 
"It would be nice if the Cubs weren’t constantly looking back at the home plate umpires and making faces after called third strikes."  :):):)
That seemed to happen often, including frequently on calls that didn't even seem wrong, much less egregiously wrong!  :) 

"But this is what the Cubs have become now, a second-place team with a sense of entitlement." 

Yes, Theo faulted the sense of urgency, so Mooney feels entitled to use the pejorative. 
*Personally I still question Theo on this.  Think Theo may be just mis-scouting his talent, and over-valuing the talent the front office has assembled; then faulting the players and staff for playing below the talent Theo has given them.  Maybe the performance played to the talent just fine?  Or actually outperformed the talent?  (Q, Lester, Hendricks, Zobrist.....) 

If Theo doesn't have limitless money, the sense of entitlement might be sunsetting.  Might be perceived more as a got-a-chance-to-make-the-playoffs team, but perhaps no longer as "expected" or "favorite". 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 12, 2018, 02:00:29 pm
David Ross couldnt hit a lick.

I wouldnt want him coaching our hitters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 12, 2018, 02:02:19 pm
Almora had a change in the second half.  His BABIP went from .372 to .279 and brought it down to .337 for the year which is fine, but that wasn't it all.

His ISO went from .120 to .048.  His previous 2 years with the Cubs it was .179 and .149.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 12, 2018, 02:31:06 pm
All opinions are certainly welcome, but I'm struck by the volume of teeth-gnashing in Cub Nation these days!  The Mooney article (thanks, Ron) paints a rather negative picture that doesn't feel quite right to me...not after a 95-win season and the most wins in MLB over the past 4 years.

It's not like other teams and front offices aren't pretty good, too!  95 wins is rather solid!  Hats off to the Brewers who went wild in September and deserve to still be playing.  (they may find it harder to sustain their success next season...who knows?)

At exactly NO point in my 67 years have the Cubs been nearly as good, as well managed, or as well led by one of the best - if not the best - front office in baseball.

Would it be really nice if we had hit better in the 2nd half?  Sure.  Will we likely hit better next year?  I think so, due to young hitters maturing, if not a new coaching influence...but who knows?  MLB - and people - are rather unpredictable that way.

I'd LOVE to think we have another World Championship in this run; however, I'm not going to lose sight of the fact that we've ALREADY won a World Championship with the same front office, manager and core talent...and that title remains one of the all-time greatest feats in the history of sports!  I still pinch myself that it did occur!

IMHO, Theo et al have EARNED the benefit of the doubt.  As DaveP recently pointed out, we might know 10% of what they know and they must make regular decisions based on human beings, some of whom have undisclosed injuries or other frailties the management must carefully consider, but never go public with. 

I think our leadership will find a way to keep us competitive and, just maybe, we will be the hot team at the right time again next year...but who knows.  I'm happy our beloved franchise is as strong as it is today and that it's not totally unrealistic for us to speculate about what it may take to get us back on top again next season! 
GO Cubs!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 12, 2018, 02:46:11 pm

Thanks, Ben

IMHO, Theo et al have EARNED the benefit of the doubt.  As DaveP recently pointed out, we might know 10% of what they know and they must make regular decisions based on human beings, some of whom have undisclosed injuries or other frailties the management must carefully consider, but never go public with. 


The all-time winningest college football coach, John Gagliardi of St. John's in Minnesota, recently died at 91.  Among things he was noted for were all practices were non-contact.   This definitely applies to baseball too:

  Legendary St. John’s football coach John Gagliardi when asked if he will be second-guessing his successor:   -  - - -  “I probably will because now I'll be one of the fans, and I know the fans up in the stands know everything," Gagliardi said. "I always marvel how the fans know everything without having watched our films and practices. But they know everything immediately. - - - "I'm hoping to get some of that insight.
 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 12, 2018, 03:07:21 pm
In my observation, the vast majority of times that Cub hitters looked back at umps and made faces on called third strikes were on pitches that were close but missed the strike zone.  Also, I didn't notice them doing this more than players on other teams.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 12, 2018, 03:37:59 pm
I can't remember it for certain, but I thought Schwarber led the majors in called strike outside the zone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 12, 2018, 05:24:10 pm
I agree with that, Davis seemed primarily a Theo guy more than Maddon. 
In his press conference, Theo said that he'd been a hard worker.  Heh heh, kinda faint praise, seemed pretty evident he was going to be replaced. 
Reminds of a time years ago, I was coaching a girls softball team.  I'm driving the team van one day and the girls are talking about things coaches say, knowing full well I could hear them.  One girl said, "I hate it when he says I'm a trooper."  "Why," someone asked.  "Trooper means you try hard but you suck."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 12, 2018, 06:28:04 pm
Hey Ron, you think Chili will be let go yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 12, 2018, 06:50:46 pm
Theo is an amazing exec, but it's amazing the contortions people (though not Theo himself, generally) will go through to exonerate him from any blame whatsoever when things go badly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 12, 2018, 07:20:24 pm
Deeg, I'm glad Theo has the highest expectations for the Cubs and is determined to improve the team's hitting next season.

However, I personally think 95 wins (and tied for the best record in the NL) establishes that things went quite well overall - not badly - for the Cubs this year.

Of course, I've been following the Cubs one helluva lot longer than Theo has!



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 12, 2018, 07:38:58 pm
I dont buy into all the gloom and doom either.

A few moves this offseason and Im not even talking Machado or Harper and we'll be NL favorites again.

Theo and Jed have made a few mistakes but what GM hasnt?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 13, 2018, 08:13:32 am
When things don't go as well as expected, blame must be placed, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 13, 2018, 11:26:27 am
It is just like the stock market.  The experts can always tell you exactly why it went up or down yesterday, but can never tell you whether it will go up or down tomorrow.

The front office of every team makes hundreds of decisions every year.  The vast majority of those decisions are successful or unsuccessful because of events that could not be foreseen or controlled.  No one could have been certain that Darvish would have had injury problems that rendered him worthless?  If instead, he had performed well, the Cubs would probably still be playing.

If Bryant had not hurt his shoulder diving into first base, the offense might have been a strong point this year, rather than a weakness.  Especially if Contreras had not been worn to a nubbin with overuse.  If Chatwood had merely performed as he has in past years, we would have had a much stronger rotation.  He did not need to be a star to help the team.  Instead, he harmed the team greatly. 

Most of these decisions are balanced on a razor edge.  Minor events, totally unable to be foreseen, can change a decision from a brilliant one to a horrible one.  Pointing to any one failure, or even several failures in a short period of time can be a fun intellectual discussion, but anyone that actually believes that they could have foreseen all these events isn't living in the real world.

The only way to evaluate a team or a front office is their performance over an extended period of time, and the performance of this particular front office since they have been in power has been magnificent.  Rooting for a team should be fun.  Let's nor make ourselves miserable over something that should be making us feel great.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 13, 2018, 11:43:00 am
The only way to evaluate a team or a front office is their performance over an extended period of time, and the performance of this particular front office since they have been in power has been magnificent.  Rooting for a team should be fun.  Let's nor make ourselves miserable over something that should be making us feel great.

Well said.

Theo stressed from the beginning that there would be mistakes and disappointments, and that progress is never linear. It should be no surprise that some decisions have turned out badly. But few things in life go as well as the performance of the Cubs has over the last four years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 15, 2018, 09:10:34 am
The guys at The Athletic had some fun discussing the Cubs' decisions and moves going forward. At times it's (intentionally) humorous, at times serious.  But I recommend it whether for genuine value or simple fun.  Not surprisingly, I liked Sahadev Sharma's contributions the best. But I thought Mooney's weren't bad.

Of particular interest might be the answers to the question of what four moves (realistic or wildly optimistic) should the Cubs make to be a "top-level playoff threat."  Here is Sharma's response:

This is probably wildly optimistic in the sense that a couple of these moves happening are realistic, but all of them? That would be a grand-slam winter. First of all, go get a veteran backup catcher who can spell Contreras, who led baseball with 1,109 2/3 innings caught. I think ideally they’d like to get a lefty bat there, but that may not be possible. I’d say one who has superior defense and knows how to handle a staff would be a priority, with René Rivera and Martín Maldonado topping the list.

After that, go get a left-handed reliever who can share closing duties with Brandon Morrow. Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are available via free agency, but they both might have their best years behind them. I say with a likely shuffling of the offense coming and trades being made, one of them should be to try and snag Sean Doolittle from a Washington Nationals team that may be looking to reload if Bryce Harper walks.

Speaking of Harper, instead of bringing him in the fold, the Cubs add Manny Machado. (Am I the first to suggest that move?) Imagine an infield of a healthy Bryant at third, Machado at shortstop (his defense has been significantly better at that position with Los Angeles), Báez at second and Rizzo at first. My lord, that’s scary for the opposition to think about. Then add in Contreras bouncing back? That’s how you fix an offense.

And looking for a little edge and some depth to the outfield? This one is a little out there and completely depends on how much he’s willing to take on a deal, but how about adding Andrew McCutchen? Sell him on the fact that this team can get him that ring he craves and start him about 110 times in favorable matchups. He had a 115 wRC+ in 130 games with the Giants this year and then in 25 with the Yankees, he posted a 149. If he hit anything in between there, it would be perfect for the Cubs. He also has hit .310/.416/.484 at Wrigley Field, so the reporters who love asking incoming free agents “How excited are you to play at Wrigley Field?” would have a legit angle.

https://theathletic.com/587544/2018/10/14/cubs-roundtable-four-pressing-questions-for-chicagos-favorite-nl-wild-card-losing-team/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 02:47:04 pm
Anthony Lapoce will be the new Cubs hitting coach.  He was the hitting coach for the Rangers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 02:48:43 pm
Lapoce bio

http://m.mlb.com/tex/roster/coach/437676/anthony-iapoce
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 03:00:06 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpkuf9WVsAAbao-.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 03:02:55 pm
Bruce Miles  @BruceMiles2112  16m16 minutes ago
Anthony Iapoce is a close associate of former #Cubs hitting coach John Mallee and is well regarded up and down Cubs organization.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2018, 03:11:03 pm
I think Hyde overlapped with him at the Marlins as well.

I'd be scared about Machado at SS, so I guess it would depend on what the Cubs think about his defense at SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 03:12:16 pm
Correction:  It's Iapoce, not Lapoce
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 15, 2018, 03:20:43 pm
Correction:  It's Iapoce, not Lapoce

How does one pronounce that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 15, 2018, 03:24:13 pm
It's pronounced Iapoce.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 03:38:48 pm
How does one pronounce that?
I was wondering the same thing

Pronunciation:    yah-POH'-chay.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on October 15, 2018, 04:03:12 pm
His bio says "eye-uh-poh-SEE"...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on October 15, 2018, 04:25:05 pm
Spelled backwards, it's Ecopai. 

Harry would have loved this guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2018, 04:26:00 pm
Bruce Levine


According to sources out west,the Giants have shown real interest in the Cubs VP of minors and scouting Jason McLeod for their open GM post.

Jesse Rogers


 
More
Eye-o-pocee. Some obvious things to like but I don’t know him RT @acctgteach: @ESPNChiCubs how do you pronounce his name and what are your thoughts on the hire?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 15, 2018, 04:33:29 pm
How does one pronounce that?

I believe it's "anyone but Davis".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 04:44:08 pm
Quote from: MLB.com
Prior to joining the Rangers, Iapoce was the Cubs' special assistant to the general manager/player development from 2013-15, and oversaw the Minor League hitting program. He worked with young players such as Kris Bryant, Albert Almora Jr. and Kyle Schwarber.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 15, 2018, 04:44:31 pm
I won't pretend I've followed them closely, and I know they haven't been putting the '27 Yankees out there, but Texas' offense has gotten worse every year for the past 3 years.  FWIW.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 06:14:54 pm
What do new hitting coach Anthony Iapoce,  manager Joe Maddon, pitching coach Jim Hickey, third base coach Brian Butterfield, bench coach Brandon Hyde, and catching coach Mike Borzello have in common?

None played in the major leagues.

That has to be some sort of record.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 15, 2018, 06:34:49 pm
I thought you were going for "all will likely be gone after the '19 season".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 15, 2018, 06:53:35 pm
No, but it might mean first base coach Will Venable's job is in jeopardy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 15, 2018, 08:45:22 pm
I'll hope we can win 95+ again next season and get in the playoff hunt once again!

Thereafter, it will remain a crapshoot of sorts.  ALL the teams/players are good!

Just like this year, one seldom knows in January, or even May, who will be the top MLB performers in October. 

Imagine if our free agent signings last off-season would have been Brewers' pitchers Miley and Chacin rather than Darvish and Chatwood??

Who knew? 

When it comes to MLB, hindsight truly is 20/20...SO unpredictable this time of year!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 15, 2018, 09:59:37 pm
Shiraz Rehman is leaving the Cubs front office for the Rangers. Rehman started the analytics department for the Cubs.

McLeod also interviewed for the Giants GM job.  If they lose him I'd really like to bring Porter back from the DBacks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on October 16, 2018, 05:36:05 pm
I was wondering the same thing

Pronunciation:    yah-POH'-chay.   

I went to college with a guy with this last name; his nickname was "The Poach".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on October 16, 2018, 08:28:16 pm
Hung around bars at closing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 16, 2018, 09:20:50 pm
Interesting that the media has finally picked up on what I said right after Theo’s postmortem presser - that was coded language from a very unhappy exec. But how exactly does he go about adding “edge” to the clubhouse? He’s not changing managers (yet).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 16, 2018, 09:40:29 pm
The most obvious way to go about adding edge to the clubhouse is Harper. He's a pretty intense player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 16, 2018, 10:05:01 pm
Yeah, that does seem to be the most obvious direction. Harper being a red-ass is hardy the main draw but I guess if it’s edge you want, it doesn’t hurt.

I don’t think it’s preposterous to suggest the clubhouse was never the same after Ross retired. Hard to overstate how important his presence was, and that’s more clear now than ever.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 16, 2018, 10:26:46 pm
Even though he wasn't the clubhouse red ass, I still think losing Fowler hurt more than Ross. The lineup just worked so much better with him leading off everyday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 16, 2018, 11:33:21 pm
Think it's interesting where Theo is supposedly all about attitude and edge and focus, and talent doesn't seem to be a priority?  Seems like all the draft picks, there was so much talk about character qualities being top priority, you'd think by this point that they'd have plenty of what you want.  Obviously Heyward is $180 of leadership, not bat; but he's not the leader that Theo wants either, I guess, too laid-back? 

As for Harper, hasn't he been in trouble for non-hustle and Disrespect-90 and stuff?  I don't know, just wondering whether he's actually a 162-games-urgency guy, or maybe not so much? 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 16, 2018, 11:46:26 pm
I'd like to see us go after Josh Donaldson.  That would pretty much push Bryant to the outfield, but that may happen anyway.  It would preclude Schwarber and maybe another OF being traded, but it would be the kind of bat we could use in the middle of the lineup.  But, the big reason I'd like to see it is that the Cardinals are going after him.  A lot of Theo's success in the past is denying the player your biggest threats want by grabbing him yourself.  Donaldson in the middle of that Cardinal lineup would be formidable.   (Some are suggesting that Donaldson will be a bargain in this year's free agent scramble.  We could use one or two of those too.)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 16, 2018, 11:56:54 pm
Pass on Donaldson.  33 next month, declining on defense for years.  Maybe he was just hurt this year, or maybe he's on the wrong side of the divide.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 17, 2018, 02:48:57 am
I'd rather have Machado than Harper.

He just fits better and is a better player too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 17, 2018, 06:52:52 am
Maybe they should bring in Lackey as a mental skills coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on October 17, 2018, 08:32:10 am
Lackey definitely has EDGE
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on October 17, 2018, 09:11:02 am
I think the edge comment is mostly directed at the players. It is inevitable that the players who broke the curse could be feeling a sense of entitlement, especially when they were able to sleep walk through the first half of 2017 and turn it on to win the division. Yes, they failed in the NLCS, but hey, you can't expect to win it all every year; right? I don't know that they had a sense of entitlement coming into this year. Schwarber worked his tail off this offseason to improve his conditioning. Contreras seemingly worked himself to death this offseason. Bryant is always trying to improve over last year and before his injury it was working. The starters were certainly underwhelming the first half but carried the team the second half. Were they lacking that edge? Or were the numbers plagued by a mediocre to bad Darvish and just horrible Chatwood? The bullpen had the edge early but was so overworked they struggled down the stretch, a consequence of injury and starters struggles in the first half, not a lack of an edge. Maybe there was a sense of entitlement by a few. But the biggest problem the team had this year could be attributed to nearly every move Theo made in the offseason blowing up. Darvish, Chatwood, Morrow, Chili Davis. Not one of those were around or helping in the second half. Theo should probably look in the mirror if he wants to see the primary culprit for 2018 ending in disaster. And I say this as a big fan of his.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on October 17, 2018, 09:12:21 am
They are maybe somewhat touchy about edge, though?  Montero had some edge. 
*Maybe edgy enough to question whether Maddon communicated well to him as one of the non-star little people?
*And edgy enough to say what should have been obvious, that Arrieta and other pitchers showed little urgency about little parts of the game like holding runners on? 

I suspect there's a fine line in management's view between being a little edgy and urgent and pushing both yourself and other people in a good way, versus being a little edgy and maybe pushing other people and management not liking that.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 17, 2018, 09:48:03 am
I think the Cubs coming off a disappointing season will have some of that edge back next year.  1 WS win and 3 straight NLCS could cause some complacency. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 17, 2018, 10:16:55 am
I think the Cubs coming off a disappointing season will have some of that edge back next year.  1 WS win and 3 straight NLCS could cause some complacency. 

Doug Glanville with a compelling essay on team expectations

Quote
The language the Cubs players used throughout the 2018 campaign and after they were knocked out reflected the highest of expectation. The idea that every year is not just a playoff appearance, a 90-win season, a better-than-last-year achievement. It is a year measured by the singular accomplishment of being a world champion.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/glanville-changing-expectations-have-made-it-so-95-wins-not-enough-cubs-world-series
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on October 17, 2018, 10:28:50 am
Its funny to read the Edge comments here... same thing happened for Madden with the Rays. Folks started questioning if the players lost their edge due to the type of atmosphere Madden runs in the club house. where is the sense of urgency?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on October 17, 2018, 10:48:22 am
You see some at-bats where the guy is fouling off pitch after pitch - even if may be out of strike zone - and then finally getting a hit or walk

And then you see some at-bats (like pitchers) who look like they have no plan when they go up there...

If these guys batted as if their salary depended on it each at-bat - wouldn't we see better offense?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 17, 2018, 05:25:38 pm
I think the Cubs coming off a disappointing season will have some of that edge back next year.  1 WS win and 3 straight NLCS could cause some complacency. 

One would have hoped the way last year ended would have had that effect, and it didn’t. Why should a repeat have any more impact?

Every baseball move was made for valid reasons. But look at who the Cubs lost, collectively, since the WS: Ross, Lackey, Fowler, Montero, Arrieta. A lot of intensity removed from the equation collectively, and a lot of low-key guys left behind (including the manager). Maybe the mix has gotten a little out of balance now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 17, 2018, 06:18:02 pm
Losing the division and losing the Wild Card game is a lot different than winning the division and going to the NLCS coming off a World Series win.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 17, 2018, 06:30:00 pm
If you say so.

Rather than depend on that gene somehow kicking in, I’m on board with changing the dynamic externally, as long as it doesn’t compromise the lineup you out on the field.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 17, 2018, 06:32:32 pm
McLeod also interviewed for the Giants GM job.  If they lose him I'd really like to bring Porter back from the DBacks.

I think I read this somewhere else, so it's not my idea...but I don't see that anyone has posted it on this board, so I'll repeat it here.

If McLeod goes to the Giants, he's presumably going to be rebuilding--their championship window is closed. It's probably a given that McLeod will be going somewhere else within the next year or two, so a rebuilding Giants team might not be the worst place for him to land from the Cubs' perspective. His familiarity with the Cubs system could give them the inside track if they wanted to try to trade for Will Smith (very good but not elite LHP who is a free agent after next year, so he's probably a guy who the Cubs could afford in a trade). And if McLeod was one of the believers in Tyler Chatwood, I could see a bad contract swap of Chatwood for Melancon making some sense for both sides.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 17, 2018, 07:19:53 pm
McLeod is the guy I hate to lose, much more so than Hoyer, but I guess it’s inevitable.  He’s overqualified for what he’s doing for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 17, 2018, 07:23:29 pm
The FO has been really good at finding relievers for cheap. I don’t think I’d want to pay the price for Smith.

I’m not sure what I’d want to do with Chatwood, but Melancon is just a softer throwing Kintzler.

Watson might be interesting trade target from though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 17, 2018, 07:42:27 pm
I just don’t think Smith should cost that much. He’s a pretty equivalent pitcher to Justin Wilson at the time of that trade, but he has a half season less team control. And he doesn’t come with Avila. Wilson really was affordable, so Smith should be too.

Melancon was far better than Kintzler at his peak, and has gotten better results lately. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s a better fit than Chatwood. Other than Zack Cozart, I don’t think there’s another bad contract deal that remotely makes sense.

(I think rebuilding teams and those looking to follow the 2015 Cubs/2018 Braves as surprise contenders should be interested in Chatwood, by the way...so a better solution would be to convince some team of that. But I don’t think that’s likely to happen)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 17, 2018, 08:20:46 pm
Melancon is already terrible (1.6 WHIP) and getting worse. I’d sooner try and fix Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 17, 2018, 08:24:32 pm
I’m not sure with Posey and MadBum still on the team it will be a full rebuild next year even though they should.

Smith was clearly better than Wilson has ever been last year. 33.8% K% and 7.1% BB%. For a full year that will bring back a top 100ish prospect.

Melancon has been injured the last years and this year was a 17.8% K% and 8.1% BB%. I’d rather turn Chatwood into a reliever than deal with another pitch to contact reliever that struggles with walks.

The Padres have a 40 man roster crunch and crappy starting options for next year. I wonder if you could talk them into Chatwood if you flip them Montgomery or Smyly as well for some guys they would lose in to Rule 5 that could give you some pitching depth. Cubs Insider mentioned doing the same thing with Russell, but I think Tatis will be up soon next year for them.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 17, 2018, 09:36:05 pm
https://www.instagram.com/p/BpDa8jMgc5r/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 17, 2018, 09:36:44 pm
Look at Ben's shirt.

My man.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 21, 2018, 06:55:34 pm
Jon Heyman  @JonHeyman   9h9 hours ago

Girardi surprised reds by pulling out Friday. He had a chance to win job at that point but they never got to point of talking money with him. He also pulled out of rangers derby. Industry speculation: he’s waiting a year on Chicago
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 21, 2018, 07:30:08 pm
Girardi may be waiting for the Cubs job to open up, but I can't imagine this front office wanting him. There have been rumors that one of the reasons the Cubs may be willing to move on from Maddon is that he just does whatever he wants. I'm sure Girardi would expect that same freedom.

If someone else doesn't hire Brandon Hyde in the next week or two, I would be pretty shocked if he's not the next Cubs manager.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 21, 2018, 08:51:43 pm
I think Hyde would be in contention, but there will be other candidates. Ross if he gets into coaching and the same goes for Derosa. Rocco Baldelli sounds like an interesting coach with the Rays.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 21, 2018, 08:52:36 pm
I agree Hyde would be the favorite, but I'll be surprised if he's not snatched up in the next two weeks.

On Girardi, there are obvious culture fit issues there.  But if Theo decides he wants to do a complete shift from the laid-back Maddon, Girardi does sort of fit the bill.  I think it's pretty clear Theo is tired of celebrity managers, but Girardi isn't that in the same way Maddon is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 21, 2018, 09:03:07 pm
I don't think one year of coaching will get Ross or DeRosa the job. Outside of Counsell, the track record for guys who didn't spend at least a few years coaching and/or managing in the minors has been pretty bad.

I get that Girardi is a temperament change from Maddon...but they can get a hardass without going to another $5 million/year manager who doesn't feel like he has to listen to the front office.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 21, 2018, 09:16:11 pm
Alex Cora had 1 year as the Astros bench coach. Aaron Boone had no experience. Roberts had all of 4 years as coach, three years as a first base coach and 1 as a bench coach.

I think an experienced bench coach and analytics can limit lack of experience.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 21, 2018, 09:22:22 pm
I always liked Mark DeRosa as a player.  But the last I knew, DeRosa is extremely skeptical about modern analytics. I don't think he'll be managing the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 21, 2018, 09:31:02 pm
I dont know where any of you have got that Maddon is a dead man walking and that Theo is tired of him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 21, 2018, 09:35:49 pm
I always liked Mark DeRosa as a player.  But the last I knew, DeRosa is extremely skeptical about modern analytics. I don't think he'll be managing the Cubs.

After his Mets interview he acknowledge he had to learn it. I don’t think anybody that wants to manage this n baseball can ignore it anymore.

As far as Madden goes he could get extended or he could get replaced. I think he was the perfect guy to break the 108 year curse and last year was his most difficult. Marrow and Strop’s handling have me concerned.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 22, 2018, 02:55:10 am
I don't think one year of coaching will get Ross or DeRosa the job. Outside of Counsell, the track record for guys who didn't spend at least a few years coaching and/or managing in the minors has been pretty bad.

I get that Girardi is a temperament change from Maddon...but they can get a hardass without going to another $5 million/year manager who doesn't feel like he has to listen to the front office.

I don’t think Girardi will get 5 millibar this point, and I don’t see him necessarily as a guy who refuses to listen to the front office. My bigger concern is that he doesn’t seem all that enthusiastic about advanced statistics.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 22, 2018, 08:25:44 am
After his Mets interview he acknowledge he had to learn it. I don’t think anybody that wants to manage this n baseball can ignore it anymore.

As far as Madden goes he could get extended or he could get replaced. I think he was the perfect guy to break the 108 year curse and last year was his most difficult. Marrow and Strop’s handling have me concerned.

I don't believe Theo is going to hire someone to manage the Cubs who has (belatedly) decided he needs to learn about analytics.

Others may well be better than I at reading tea leaves, but I see no reason to assume that Theo has soured on Maddon, whatever differences they may have.  It won't surprise me in the least if Maddon is still managing the Cubs after next season.  Perhaps that will depend more than anything on what happens next season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 22, 2018, 08:41:55 am
I dont know where any of you have got that Maddon is a dead man walking and that Theo is tired of him.
The current discussion was started by Jon Heyman saying that industry speculation has Girardi interested in the job.

One item that may or may not mean anything is that Joe Maddon will be 65 in February.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 22, 2018, 11:16:36 am
I don't believe Theo is going to hire someone to manage the Cubs who has (belatedly) decided he needs to learn about analytics.

Others may well be better than I at reading tea leaves, but I see no reason to assume that Theo has soured on Maddon, whatever differences they may have.  It won't surprise me in the least if Maddon is still managing the Cubs after next season.  Perhaps that will depend more than anything on what happens next season.

I think it could be him more interesting.  One of the bigger problems with analytics is getting it from the nerds in the front office to the players in a way that they can use.  Somebody that came it later and is a former player might be able to put it in a more relatable way for certain types of players.

One of the things that has happened so far this season is the guy in charge of the analytics department Shiraz Rehman taking a lateral move to the Rangers.  Maybe he did it to get a better chance at advancement, but McDaniel and Longerhagen have be taking about how teams use analytics and their are 6 teams that they mentioned (Yanks, Astros, Dodgers amoung them) that are way ahead of the curve.  The Cubs weren't mentioned in that group so I wonder if Rehman left of his own free will or the Cubs are trying to revamp the department.  Being able to do what the Yankees seem to do with ease in add velocity to pitchers that they draft or sign as IFA would be great, or how the Dodgers can take scrubs off the scrap heap and turn them into above average hitters.  I think the analytic department plays a role if identifying those types of players and then major/minor league coaching is able to develop it in a way the Cubs haven't figured out yet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 22, 2018, 11:18:55 am
I have no reason to think that the front office is unhappy with Maddon.  However, if they are, one reason could be that he seems to have abandoned the "shifting" that seemed to be successful previously, and has all but been dumped this past season or so.  I have no idea if the front office has (or wants to) talk to him about it.  However, it is the only thing about Maddon that I can think of that they might not have been aware of at the time they hired him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on October 22, 2018, 11:41:40 am
I think it could be him more interesting.  One of the bigger problems with analytics is getting it from the nerds in the front office to the players in a way that they can use.  Somebody that came it later and is a former player might be able to put it in a more relatable way for certain types of players.

One of the things that has happened so far this season is the guy in charge of the analytics department Shiraz Rehman taking a lateral move to the Rangers.  Maybe he did it to get a better chance at advancement, but McDaniel and Longerhagen have be taking about how teams use analytics and their are 6 teams that they mentioned (Yanks, Astros, Dodgers amoung them) that are way ahead of the curve.  The Cubs weren't mentioned in that group so I wonder if Rehman left of his own free will or the Cubs are trying to revamp the department.  Being able to do what the Yankees seem to do with ease in add velocity to pitchers that they draft or sign as IFA would be great, or how the Dodgers can take scrubs off the scrap heap and turn them into above average hitters.  I think the analytic department plays a role if identifying those types of players and then major/minor league coaching is able to develop it in a way the Cubs haven't figured out yet.

That’s interesting.  I know Shiraz (our kids are in school together) but not well enough that I’d have any insights into his professional life. But, I do know that he and his family appear pretty settled here so taking a job that appears to be a lateral move may very well be an indication of his standing with the Cubs.  Who knows, maybe it’s not lateral but from what I have observed from him and his family, they don’t look like people who were unhappy with life in Chicago and wanted out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 22, 2018, 11:55:42 am
Cub reporters have described it as lateral, Ranger reporters say he'll have a bunch of responsibilities.  What the Rangers reporters list would fall under just heading an analytics department to my perspective.  It could be a GM in waiting type of thing too.  I have no clue. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 25, 2018, 10:44:18 pm
Kaplan apparently speculated a couple days ago that the Cubs could trade Schwarber for Merrifield this offseason. The author at this Royals SB Nation blog picked that up and thinks it would be a reasonable deal. Personally, I think the Royals would reject it pretty quickly. I don't know why the Royals would want a worse performing player with less team control, even if he is 4 years younger. But maybe I'm wrong.

https://www.royalsreview.com/2018/10/25/18022972/thoughts-on-a-theoretical-merrifield-schwarber-swap
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 25, 2018, 11:47:51 pm
Maybe they think they are selling high on him?

Merrifield is interesting.  His defense at 2b the last 2 years is blah according to UZR/150. He only has 547 innings in the OF and they have been blah to except for the 200 innings in CF this year, but that is a small sample size.

His offensive value this year was tied in his base running and OBP. He walked more this year and rarely strikes out which are nice, but his OBP was fuled by his BABIP. When it wasn’t .370+ he was monthly wRC+ was 101,103, 106.  105 wRC+ was a 2.9 fWAR player last year in 145 games. His sprint speed would lead the Cubs at 29.1 to Baez 28.9.

Taking into account Whitfield turnin 30 and last year was likely his career year I’d pass, not to mention his minor league stats look very Albert Almora-ish.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 26, 2018, 01:43:54 am
That is sort of an interesting possibility.  Small but not tiny sample size in CF is pretty encouraging, not a butcher at 2B.  The minor league #s definitely don't wow you, but maybe that's Schwarber's realistic value right now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 26, 2018, 08:09:28 am
Schwarber just played his age 25 season and has fewer than 1,200 MLB ABs with not that much minor league seasoning.  He improved in some categories this season.

He may be a guy who doesn't improve a lot going forward, but who knows?  I seriously doubt Theo will sell low on Schwarber and Merrifield would be selling low!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 26, 2018, 08:28:42 am
Schwarber only has 3 years of control left. He's starting to get more expensive, and he hasn't come close to living up to the potential the front office thought he had. He's not that young anymore either--at 26 years old, he's starting to get to the point where the default expectation is that he just is who he's going to be. He's just not that valuable in a trade anymore--I think Cubs fans overvalue him.

Merrifield was 16th in MLB in fWAR and 25th in rWAR this year. He's probably going to get a few down-ballot MVP votes. He's a little older...but if anyone would be selling their player at a discount in that speculated deal, it's the Royals.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 26, 2018, 09:24:19 am
brjones, it could be that Schwarber this season was about all he will be...however, with barely 1,500 professional ABs TOTAL (less than 1,100 MLB), my guess is that Theo et al see that differently, particularly as he grew in some respects this season.

Of course, we shall see.  There are many other factors, such as whether our FO still views Schwarber as the kind of person/player who will do what it takes to fulfill his potential (if they believe he does have quite a bit of untapped potential...as I certainly want to believe).



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on October 26, 2018, 09:46:12 am
Given the current state of the team, I like the idea of adding Machado (rather than Harper).  Against RHP, you go with Schwarber, Happ/Almora, Heyward/Zobrist in the OF, with Bryant, Machado, Baez, Rizzo around the infield.  Against LHP, Bryant and Happ play corner OF, Machado moves to third, Baez to SS, and Zobrist to 2B.  Assuming some progression by Happ and Schwarber, and a likely comeback year for Contreras, this would be a pretty formidable offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 26, 2018, 10:21:07 am
I will be surprised (and disappointed) if the Cubs sign Machado. He does not seem to me to fit the "character" profile the Cubs are looking for, particularly in a star player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 26, 2018, 10:48:11 am
Machado had that incident with Aguilar in the NLCS, which was bad. But really, I don't remember him being consistently controversial. He's certainly not a Milton Bradley type--at worst, he seems to be an AJ Pierzynski type who is liked by his teammates but frustrates the opposition. And we know he's close with Almora. I have no issue signing him if he is the best fit from a talent perspective.

I'll say again that the Cubs need two hitters this offseason: Harper or Machado and a top of order/leadoff type. I don't have a strong preference on the stars--I lean towards Harper a little, but it also depends on what players are available to be that second hitter. If the best fit for that role is an outfielder, maybe that Machado/OF pair is a better fit than a Harper/IF pair.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 26, 2018, 11:21:09 am
Harper over Machado all day.  Harper and a healthy Bryant fixes the offense.

1) Zobrist 2B
2.) Harper RF
3.) Bryant 3B
4.) Rizzo 1B
5.) Baez SS
6.) Schwarber LF
7.) Contreras C
8.) Heyward/Amora CF

Have Bolte as 3B/2B/emergency SS.  You can limit Zobrists playing time for the playoffs.  I haven't seen an offense yet proposed that tops that and you aren't sacrificing much on defense either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 26, 2018, 01:29:10 pm
Some history on Manny Machado, before his disgraceful episode with Aguilar.

Throwing his bat at the opposing 3B and hitting a catcher in the head (twice) then smiling about it.

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/manny-machado-throws-bat-video-knee-fernando-abad-athletics-orioles-bench-clearing-brawl/zexydnu7zp9y1i7y8lrgibzc3

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/6/9/5795156/manny-machado-orioles-bat-throwing-josh-donaldson-athletics-mlb

Spiking Duston Pedroia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVIcxSSt8gU

His comment on not hustling to 1B:

Machado responded to that criticism and might have stoked the flames even more. Here’s what he told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: (emphasis ours)

“I’ve been thinking about it and it happens every time, there’s no excuse for it honestly. I’ve never given excuses for not running. I’m not hurt, there’s no excuse but I’ve been the same player … I’ve been doing this for eight years, I’m in The Show for eight years, I’ve done the same thing for eight years, I’ve been the same player. (Machado actually just completed his seventh season.)

“Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.

“Should I have run on that pitch? Yeah … but I didn’t and I gotta pay the consequences for it. It does look bad. It looks terrible. I look back at the video and I’m like, ‘Woah, what was I doing?’ You know, just the emotions of the game … I’m the type of player that has stayed in the zone, I’m playing and I’m just in the zone.”

Machado is a great player, no question. Sammy Sosa was a great player for the Cubs as well, but he was poison in the clubhouse and his arrogance and focus on himself were harmful. Maybe that could be tolerated on a team that had been so unsuccessful and was so dependent on him. That was then, and this is now - a team that has lots of talent and a great culture. And while Sosa didn't create problems with other teams, Machado has single-handedly created animosity between his team and at least three others (A's, Red Sox and Brewers). The Cubs don't need that kind of distraction.  Adding Machado to this team, which focuses so much culture and team approach, would, in my opinion be a very big mistake.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 26, 2018, 01:41:31 pm
Ill take Machado over Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 26, 2018, 02:52:30 pm
My best guess is there's NO way Theo goes after Machado!

(Ron's above post lays it out rather clearly)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 26, 2018, 03:07:12 pm
My best guess is there's NO way Theo goes after Machado!

(Ron's above post lays it out rather clearly)

No guessing about it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 26, 2018, 04:09:46 pm
Here's a player with character:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2802882-mookie-betts-praised-for-feeding-homeless-after-game-2-world-series-win?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on October 26, 2018, 04:11:01 pm
One thing I reluctantly have to like about the Red Sox is that Nashville area guys like Mookie Betts and David Price are representing well there. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 26, 2018, 04:14:01 pm
One thing I reluctantly have to like about the Red Sox is that Nashville area guys like Mookie Betts and David Price are representing well there. 
Yeah, but you even things out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 26, 2018, 06:24:29 pm
Schwarber only has 3 years of control left. He's starting to get more expensive, and he hasn't come close to living up to the potential the front office thought he had. He's not that young anymore either--at 26 years old, he's starting to get to the point where the default expectation is that he just is who he's going to be. He's just not that valuable in a trade anymore--I think Cubs fans overvalue him.

Merrifield was 16th in MLB in fWAR and 25th in rWAR this year. He's probably going to get a few down-ballot MVP votes. He's a little older...but if anyone would be selling their player at a discount in that speculated deal, it's the Royals.

But Merrifield is, right now, almost assuredly as good as he's ever going to be.  It's the quintessence of selling high.  With Schwarber there's the chance that something clicks, and you get a superstar.  I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I can see the appeal from the Royals' perspective.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 26, 2018, 06:42:03 pm
Yeah, but there's virtually no chance the Royals are going to be a contender again before Schwarber hits free agency. I don't think he has much trade value in general, and I think he has even less to a team like the Royals who are going to be bad for a while.

Of course, Dayton Moore says the Royals not tearing down all the way, so they probably will trade Merrifield for major league-ready prospects or young major leaguers rather than the highest ceiling prospect they can get (which is what they should do). So maybe I am really am wrong on Schwarber...but I don't think he has the control left for them to be interested.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 26, 2018, 07:10:15 pm
I think Schwarber has some trade value.  He legitimately improved defensively to the point where he's probably league average in left.  He's still over .800 OPS despite some terrible luck and a low BA.  He seems to be a high-character guy.  He can even be a 3rd catcher, which is a minor but not negligible benefit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 26, 2018, 09:07:49 pm
I think if the Cubs trade Schwarber they will be hard pressed to replace his offensive value as it is and he still has upside of wRC+ 130.

If the Cubs trade a hitter my guess is Happ as he really doesn’t have a position. His second base defense isn’t great, his outfield defense isn’t great. He has more control and some upside on offense if he cuts down on his strike outs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 26, 2018, 10:32:16 pm
More on Machado (from tonight):

@ScottMillerBbl
1h1 hour ago
Rick Monday on #Dodgers radio broadcast: "Machado hit the ball and didn't run. He became a spectator. And this is the World Series."


 
@Joelsherman1
 1h1 hour ago
Manny Machado just watched a line drive that he thought would be a homer. It smashed off the wall. He got a single. Getting a double in the World Series is not his cup of tea. #Dodgers[/size]
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 27, 2018, 08:17:03 am
Interesting that last night's hero, Max Muncy, became the player he is "overnight" - in his age 27-28 season!  After more than 2,600 professional ABs!

Muncy has been fantastic this season!  Yet he did not play in the majors in 2017!

Before this season, he was racking up professional ABs like crazy, but had only 215 MLB ABs.  In those 215 (pre-2018) MLB ABs, over two seasons, here are his #s:
* 5 bombs (this season he hit 35)
* BA under .200 (this season .263)
* OBP under .300  (this season .391)
* SLG under .350  (this season .582)
* OPS about .600...whereas this season his OPS was .973.

In fact, Muncy accumulated MORE THAN FIVE TIMES the amount of professional ABs (before making his mark this year) than Kyle Schwarber accumulated before MLB!

Some guys make a career jump in MLB and some don't.  It's rather hard to predict whose career will/won't jump - particularly VERY early in one's MLB career! 

Is Schwarber a finished product?  He may be, but he might go Max Muncy next year or the year after or the one after that...in HIS age 28 season. 

So might Ian Happ. 

I'm sanguine in the knowledge that Theo et al know all of that WAY better than I!  Of course, when it comes to human performance, NO ONE can predict the future!



   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on October 27, 2018, 08:59:27 am
I should have concluded my last post with: no one can predict the future with certainty.

That's part of the fun of these types of discussions, of course.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 28, 2018, 07:15:13 pm
Scott Boras (on Bryce Harper): "We know who the team is, it's already completed and done."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 28, 2018, 07:26:22 pm
Scott Boras (on Bryce Harper): "We know who the team is, it's already completed and done."

Source:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/bryce-harper-free-agency-rumors-scott-boras-says-theres-already-a-done-deal-in-place/


After laying out three different explanations for Boras' statement, the article ends with this: "My vote: Boras knew this would get out and he's just messing around."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 28, 2018, 07:30:54 pm
Hell somewhere on Twitter.

Ive never been accused of making up rumors here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on October 28, 2018, 07:32:14 pm
I just looked it up.

My source is everywhere on Twitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 28, 2018, 08:16:50 pm
I can't imagine a scenario where this makes sense - it's either BS or Boras is trolling the media.  If he'd agreed to an extension with the Nats why not just announce it?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on October 28, 2018, 08:19:45 pm
According to Chelsea Janes, Nats reporter, on Twitter it was a joke by Boras.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 28, 2018, 08:20:29 pm
I can't imagine a scenario where this makes sense - it's either BS or Boras is trolling the media.  If he'd agreed to an extension with the Nats why not just announce it?

That's pretty much what the article says.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 28, 2018, 08:23:20 pm
I don't think it is legitimate.  But my understanding is that the MLB strongly requests that no deals be announced during the World Series.  They don't want to share the spotlight or publicity.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 28, 2018, 08:55:45 pm
Yeah, but stuff leaks all the time, and this would be huge.

Besides -  I don't think Harper is going back to D.C. at all, but certainly not before he seriously tests the market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 28, 2018, 09:06:45 pm
Yeah, but stuff leaks all the time, and this would be huge.

Besides -  I don't think Harper is going back to D.C. at all, but certainly not before he seriously tests the market.


This wasn't a leak though. It was Boras in a radio interview.  It's pretty hard to believe he didn't know exactly what he was doing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 28, 2018, 09:16:52 pm
This wasn't a leak though. It was Boras in a radio interview.  It's pretty hard to believe he didn't know exactly what he was doing.

Right...  But I think Dave was suggesting the possibility that he'd agreed to a deal with Washington, but it hadn't gotten out because of the MLB news blackout.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 28, 2018, 09:17:34 pm
Right...  But I think Dave was suggesting the possibility that he'd agreed to a deal with Washington, but it hadn't gotten out because of the MLB news blackout.

Ahhh, get it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 29, 2018, 08:44:30 am
Quote from: Bleacher Nation
As of this moment, with the offseason upon us, several Cubs are no longer Cubs, automatically becoming free agents:

  • Jesse Chavez, RHP
  • Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
  • Jaime Garcia, LHP
  • Daniel Murphy, 2B
  • Bobby Wilson, C
  • Justin Wilson, LHP
Each of those players can, of course, still re-sign with the Cubs, but they are now officially off the 40-man roster (which stands at 34). They can sign with new teams starting this weekend.


Re-sign Chavez and De La Rosa.  Only if the price is right for Justin Wilson.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 29, 2018, 09:01:12 am
Bring back Chavez (assuming reasonable cost), let the rest walk.

I'm willing to take a shot that Chavez's change to his release point last year will produce sustainable results. I don't think there was a similar change reported for De La Rosa, so I think you let him walk.

It's still a couple of days until something has to be done about Hamels' option. Hopefully they'll be able to come to an agreement similar to Lackey's contract from a couple of years ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on October 29, 2018, 09:33:25 am
Right...  But I think Dave was suggesting the possibility that he'd agreed to a deal with Washington, but it hadn't gotten out because of the MLB news blackout.

Thanks, Deeg.  I didn't mean to suggest that Boras was lying.  Merely that clubs are prohibited from making such agreements official during the World Series.  It might well be true, or it might merely have been a publicity stunt by Boras.

Besides, if I understand ArizonaPhil correctly, no one becomes a free agent until 5? days after the end of the World Series, so nothing can be done officially until then anyway.  One way or the other, we will find out for sure in a few days.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on October 30, 2018, 11:06:37 am
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/29/where-will-bryce-harper-play-comprehensive-free-agency-guide/?utm_term=.b1b48b1e193f
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on October 30, 2018, 02:43:59 pm
JeffH do you have a roster break down yet?  ;D

Love your suit buddy
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 31, 2018, 08:36:50 am
Quote from: AP
CHICAGO -- The Cubs have declined a $10 million team option on right-hander Brandon Kintzler, who now must decide this week whether to exercise a $5 million player option.

A 34-year-old right-hander, Kintzler was 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA for Washington and the Cubs, who acquired him July 31 for minor league right-hander Jhon Romero. He had a $5 million base salary.

He was a first-time All-Star in 2017 and has 48 career saves. He also has pitched for Milwaukee (2010-15) and Minnesota (2016-17).


https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/31/cubs-reportedly-decline-team-option-on-brandon-kintzler-but-now-the-balls-in-his-court/ (https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/31/cubs-reportedly-decline-team-option-on-brandon-kintzler-but-now-the-balls-in-his-court/)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 31, 2018, 08:57:21 am
Is there anyone who seriously thinks Kintzler won’t take that option?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on October 31, 2018, 08:57:36 am
Jim Duquette has a top 25 Free Agents list on MLB.com, that includes "interested" teams.  According to Duquette, the Cubs are "interested" in 9 of them. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-top-2018-19-free-agents/c-294514102
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 31, 2018, 09:02:52 am
Jim Duquette has a top 25 Free Agents list on MLB.com, that includes "interested" teams.  According to Duquette, the Cubs are "interested" in 9 of them. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-top-2018-19-free-agents/c-294514102

Some loopy stuff on that list. Don’t see the Cubs being interested in Murphy, and why would they go after Britton and not Miller?  Hard to see why they wouldn’t be in on Ottavino as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 31, 2018, 09:42:31 am
I think all of those "interested teams" are Duquette's speculation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on October 31, 2018, 11:06:27 am
No, I'm sure they all emailed him
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 31, 2018, 12:23:10 pm
Kintzler is exercising his option according to Jesse Rogers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on October 31, 2018, 03:20:43 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  8m8 minutes ago

Cubs pick up 2019 option on LHP Jose Quintana, claim LHP Jerry Vasto off waivers from KC. 40-man roster now at 35.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on October 31, 2018, 03:34:24 pm
Cubs pick up 2019 option on LHP Jose Quintana, claim LHP Jerry Vasto off waivers from KC. 40-man roster now at 35.

I wonder how many times Jerry Vasto is going to get claimed off of waivers this winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 31, 2018, 05:29:50 pm
I would guess a Vasto number.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 31, 2018, 06:23:11 pm
I'm not surprised that the Hamels option decision is going down to the deadline--I'm sure they're trying to get him to sign a 2-3 year deal. But I would've expected Strop's option to be picked up at the same time Quintana's was...are they trying to extend him too? That seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 31, 2018, 06:48:13 pm
Why is that unlikely?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 31, 2018, 06:53:11 pm
Because extending a reliever in his mid-30s a year before his contract expires is a bad idea, even if he's been as consistently good as Strop.

I guess it's possible they could work something out where he gives them a big bargain. But that seems unlikely too--players rarely give big hometown discounts when they don't need to.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on October 31, 2018, 06:57:27 pm
What's your definition of a "big bargain"?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 31, 2018, 07:15:33 pm
What's your definition of a "big bargain"?

2 years, 6.26 million.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on October 31, 2018, 07:24:04 pm
Going rate for pitchers in Strop’s class last year (Cishek, Shaw, McGee, Reed, etc.) was 2-3 years at $7-$10 million per. So a bargain would be somewhere significantly below that. I don’t think Strop would accept that.

The reason to extend Hamels is because it’ll likely get his AAV down to $15 million or so to help the luxury tax. Otherwise, they’d just pick up the option. With Strop, I don’t think there would be any AAV savings.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on October 31, 2018, 07:44:32 pm
Something like 2/34 for Hamels seems semi-reasonable, since it actually means 40 for Hamels. But I suspect he could do better on the open market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 01, 2018, 04:42:45 pm
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs pick up $6.25 million option on Pedro Strop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 01, 2018, 04:43:05 pm

Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
As anticipated, the #Cubs have picked up their $6.25 million option on bullpen leader Pedro Strop. Unclear if there will be another "Dress Like Pedro Strop" themed road trip next season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 01, 2018, 06:24:49 pm
From ESPN

NEW YORK -- Chicago Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward and San Francisco reliever Mark Melancon let the deadline pass for exercising opt-out provisions in their contracts.

Doing the same were two Cuban outfielders who have been major disappointments and spent all of this season in the minor leagues: Boston's Rusney Castillo and Arizona's Yasmany Tomas.

Heyward keeps the $184 million, eight-year deal that pays him $106 million in the next five seasons. The others all have two years left in their contracts: Melancon is owed $28 million, Tomas $32.5 million and Castillo $24.5 million.

They all had to make their decisions by Wednesday night.

The 29-year-old Heyward, who in 2016 helped the Cubs to their first title in 108 years, hit .270 with eight homers and 58 RBI in 127 games this season. He is owed $20 million in 2019, $21 million in each of the following two seasons and $22 million apiece in the final two years. If he has 550 plate appearances next year, he would again have the right to void the deal and become a free agent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 01, 2018, 07:56:23 pm
Sure seems unlikely to me that Cubs would consider Machado.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 01, 2018, 08:43:54 pm
I really don't understand the complete shift on Machado over the past few weeks. I expect the front office to have the same level of interest in him that they would've had if his season had ended a month ago and he hadn't had a couple bad PR days in the last month. In other words, they'll (rightfully) have considerable interest.

The guy is 26 years old and already has accumulated about 31 fWAR/34 rWAR. He just had arguably his best season, and he's still in his prime. It's probably already more likely than not that he's eventually going into the Hall of Fame. This front office is too smart to change their minds about a player based on one month of bad PR in a 6 1/2 year (HOF-pace) career.

Unless there is some new story that I haven't seen yet, I am confident they'll be talking to his agent regularly this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 01, 2018, 09:20:00 pm
Give me Machado over Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 01, 2018, 09:42:22 pm
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Cubs might make a trade to clear salary before picking up Hamels’ $20M option, sources tell The Athletic. At this point, a long-term deal for Hamels is unlikely. If Cubs decline option and make Hamels a free agent, #Rangers will pay his $6M buyout. But goal is to keep him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on November 01, 2018, 09:54:43 pm
As I've mentioned before, Machado didn't have a sterling reputation even prior to his playoff shenanigans. The front office seems to like "character" guys like Heyward more. Can't imagine they're interested in Machado at this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 01, 2018, 10:14:15 pm
Agree, Chris.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 09:42:47 am
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
The #Cubs are picking up Cole Hamels' $20 million option today, according to sources. In a related move, they're trading pitcher Drew Smiley to the #Rangers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 09:46:28 am
Too bad they couldn't convince the Rangers to take Kintzler instead.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 02, 2018, 09:52:58 am
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick
The #Cubs are picking up Cole Hamels' $20 million option today, according to sources. In a related move, they're trading pitcher Drew Smiley to the #Rangers.

The Hamels decision had to be made by today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 02, 2018, 10:40:53 am
Locking in Hamels and trading Smyly leaves the 40-man roster at 36.

By 4:00 p.m. Central today, the Cubs have to empty their 60-day disabled list.  If they simply transfer those players to the 40-man, that will make it full at 40.

Currently on the 60-day DL:

Yu Darvish
Justin Hancock
Brandon Morrow
Drew Smyly (reportedly gone)
Mark Zagunis
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 02, 2018, 10:46:18 am
Interesting. 

1.  Had hoped Smyly might be one of the surprise get-some-value guys next year, whether in bullpen, or maybe even in rotation. 

2.  Will be interesting if the "trade" actually returns any talent value, or if it's basically a salary dump, with some token non-prospect coming in return? 

3.  If the Cubs were to get to the World Series, would they be able to set any records for the older rotation in baseball history?  They are REALLY getting old, older, and oldest.  Memory is shallow, but I can't ever remember a Cubs rotation that was even close to this old-old-old. 

4.  Given Hamels age, and that I think his stuff is generally in decline, I'm kinda glad the Cubs just took the big-dollar one-year deal, rather than extending and committing more long-term money.  (I'm lazy baseball reference guy, but he's coming off 3.78 and 4.20 ERA's, with FIP's of 4.49 and 4.62.  One of the other FIP's is probably better and more favorable, but the numbers aren't that hot, and at age 35 he's not likely to get a lot faster or better.....)

5.  I wonder how this worked with Texas?  Had they let him go, Texas would have got socked with $6M bill.  So, I wonder whether Cubs told them "We're not going to pay $7 for Smyly and $20 for Hamels.  So, would you like to pay $6 for Hamels?  Or would you rather pay $7 and get Smyly?" 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 02, 2018, 10:48:56 am
Wonder how much cash came in the Smyly trade?  "Look, Rangers, we're going to decline Hamels' option which will cost you 6 mil, or we can send you Drew Smyly for 6 mil and pick up the option."  Meaning, less Smyly, we're paying Hamels $12.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 02, 2018, 10:49:48 am
Craig on the same page.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 02, 2018, 11:04:48 am
3.  If the Cubs were to get to the World Series, would they be able to set any records for the older rotation in baseball history?  They are REALLY getting old, older, and oldest.  Memory is shallow, but I can't ever remember a Cubs rotation that was even close to this old-old-old. 

Projected 2019 Starting Rotation for the Cubs on opening day.

Cole Hamels - 35 (birthday in Dec)
Jon Lester - 35 (birthday in Jan)
Yu Darvish - 32 (turns 33 in Aug)
Jose Quintana - 30 (birthday in Jan)
Kyle Hendricks - 28 (birthday in Dec)

Only Hamels & Lester are "old" in any sense, seems to me. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 11:49:33 am
The moves are official. The trade is actually Smyly and a PTBNL to the Rangers for a PTBNL. Interesting that there's a PTBNL on both sides.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 02, 2018, 12:19:00 pm
Interesting.  So, basically a salary dump. 

I imagine some possible contingencies on the PTBNL? 
*If SMyly is no good, we give them somebody to offset the million? 
*If Smyly ends up being good, maybe we get a decent prospect in the 15-30 range of the Rangers system? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 02, 2018, 12:28:59 pm
Interesting.  So, basically a salary dump. 

I imagine some possible contingencies on the PTBNL? 
*If SMyly is no good, we give them somebody to offset the million? 
*If Smyly ends up being good, maybe we get a decent prospect in the 15-30 range of the Rangers system?

With his injury history, its likely a innings # to hit for a good prospect.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 12:35:16 pm
The Cubs manager in waiting will still be around next year:

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
More Cubs news today: Bench coach Brandon Hyde will return to the team in the same role after being a finalist for several managerial openings this off season, per a source.  https://es.pn/2zrtu1I
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 02, 2018, 12:35:29 pm
Given this, what was the point in picking up Smyly in the first place?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 02, 2018, 12:36:51 pm
They didnt have Hamels when they picked up smyly. Hamels changed the plan by being a better option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 02, 2018, 12:45:36 pm
Good point.  Smyly probably requested to be traded if the Cubs were going to pick up Hamels' option, realizing that his chances of cracking the rotation were slim and presumably not wanting to be relegated to the pen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 02, 2018, 12:53:46 pm
Smyly was used as an asset. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 02, 2018, 01:03:03 pm
Given this, what was the point in picking up Smyly in the first place?

How would you answer? 

In hindsight, another of the winter decisions.  Spent $200 million on four post-surgery arms.  The only arm that held up couldn't find the strike zone. 

In some markets, if you flush $180M one winter, and flush another $200 two winters later, you'd get in some trouble.  Theo is probably fortunate to work for a big-market operation that can absorb some unsuccessful decisions. 

I'm not suggesting any were dumb or illogical, they just didn't work.  Who knows, maybe this year Smyly, Chatwood, Morrow, and Darvish will all be very effective and healthy too.  Maybe Kinzler will be a solid workman, too. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 02, 2018, 01:44:04 pm
Based on my first calculation, the Cubs will have a luxury tax figure of around $227 without bringing in any outside talent.  The luxury tax threshold for 2019 is $206.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 02, 2018, 01:44:11 pm
I think method and Curt are correct.  Smyly was picked up as a potential buy low asset who might fit in the 2019 rotation (or bullpen) depending on how things developed.  As it turns out, there isn't a clear place for Smyly in the rotation and he likely prefers a chance at starting rather than being relegated to the pen.  We'll need to see who the PTBNLs are before we can assess the cost of the Smyly escapade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 02, 2018, 04:16:48 pm
This is another one where it's hard to know exactly what's going on because we're not in the room.  Is Smyly just a salary dump because they need to control costs?  Saving money for something else?  Did they not see what they wanted in terms of health and don't think he will be effective?  Don't want to start the season without a rotation spot available for him (I don't like this one--pitchers get hurt)?  Texas really wanted Smyly?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 02, 2018, 04:42:05 pm
Sahadev Sharma

Verified account
 
@sahadevsharma

Cubs claimed INF Jack Reinheimer off waivers from Mets,
reinstated Yu, Morrow, Hancock and Zagunis off 60-day DL and
outrighted Gore and Freeman. 40-man now at 39
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 02, 2018, 05:41:54 pm
I was hoping that with the Cubs having as many players who can cover multiple positions as they do, that they could find a way to keep Terrance Gore.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 05:46:01 pm
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 06:01:06 pm
Mooney has an article on The Athletic that says it's very unlikely that the Cubs will really pursue Harper (or Machado) this offseason because of financial reasons. Olney tweeted something along the same lines this morning.

https://theathletic.com/630609/2018/11/02/what-the-cole-hamels-option-means-for-the-cubs-and-bryce-harper/

Given Theo's postseason press conference about how the lineup was broken and how they needed to start seeing performance instead of potential, I don't see how they can just bring back the same group of players and try again. If Harper and Machado aren't options, I don't really see how they transform the broken lineup in any meaningful way without adding at least two hitters. But the only other free agent hitters that I see as a potential fit are the second tier outfielders--Brantley, Pollock, and McCutchen. Brantley and Pollock are scary because of their injury histories, and McCutchen is scary because of how much he has already declined.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out. Maybe Theo can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to move 2/3 of the money tied up in the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 02, 2018, 06:21:33 pm
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.
I keep thinking back to when teams did not need a 13-man pitching staff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 06:38:30 pm
I think you'd have to get down to a 10 man pitching staff for there to be a role for Gore on a 25 man roster. I think we lose sight of how bad he is overall because he is so good at the one thing he can do. He'd easily be the worst hitting position player in the majors--even in AAA, he has a .575 career OPS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 02, 2018, 06:55:35 pm
I hate to see Smyly go.  That may really bite us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 02, 2018, 07:00:23 pm
Mooney has an article on The Athletic that says it's very unlikely that the Cubs will really pursue Harper (or Machado) this offseason because of financial reasons. Olney tweeted something along the same lines this morning.

https://theathletic.com/630609/2018/11/02/what-the-cole-hamels-option-means-for-the-cubs-and-bryce-harper/

Given Theo's postseason press conference about how the lineup was broken and how they needed to start seeing performance instead of potential, I don't see how they can just bring back the same group of players and try again. If Harper and Machado aren't options, I don't really see how they transform the broken lineup in any meaningful way without adding at least two hitters. But the only other free agent hitters that I see as a potential fit are the second tier outfielders--Brantley, Pollock, and McCutchen. Brantley and Pollock are scary because of their injury histories, and McCutchen is scary because of how much he has already declined.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out. Maybe Theo can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to move 2/3 of the money tied up in the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts.

If that is indeed the case, either Theo is operating under financial restrictions he wasn't expecting to when he made those comments, or his plan is to trade core guys in order to reshape the lineup.

Either way, with the income the club generates and a huge new TV deal coming in a year, that would be pretty disappointing.  There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in the same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 07:45:49 pm
There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in the same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.

In the Cubs' defense, Fangraphs had an article today about team payrolls. Once arb raises are factored in, it appears the Cubs have the highest 2019 payroll in baseball right now.

That said...I was listening to The Athletic's Cubs podcast earlier, and I agree with what Sharma had to say--the Cubs are at a position right now where they should be willing to blow past all luxury tax limits. They are about to get the new TV contract money, and they'll have a lot of money coming off the payroll in the next two years (Zobrist, Morrow, Strop, and Cishek after 2019; the entire rotation (including Chatwood) outside of Darvish after 2020).

The competitive window is as open as it's going to be for the next two years, so go all out for Harper now and give him an opt out in 2-3 years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 07:59:48 pm
By the way, we've heard some speculation regarding Whit Merrifield in the last 2-3 weeks, but nothing concrete. But the Cubs' apparent lack of money really makes me wonder if he might become one of the front office's top targets (assuming they buy his development as a hitter over the last two seasons). He's still a year away from arbitration, but the fact that he'll be 30 next season limits his trade value. And Dayton Moore really seems opposed to a full rebuild, so the Royals might actually match up with the players the Cubs have to offer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 02, 2018, 08:49:39 pm
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.

If I were in charge of a bad team, I would claim Gore and keep him until the trading deadline to see of a playoff team like the Cubs (hopefully) will trade something decent for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 02, 2018, 08:55:59 pm
He netted cash this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 02, 2018, 09:55:22 pm
Based on my first calculation, the Cubs will have a luxury tax figure of around $227 without bringing in any outside talent.  The luxury tax threshold for 2019 is $206.

Craig Jeff Initial Payroll Projection Luxury Tax $$$$.  (I'm trying to put in some keywords so I can search and find his post weeks from now!  :):):)) 

1.  deeg and br, I don't think I could actually fault the Cubs too badly as cheap for going to battle >$20+ over the luxury line. 

2.  Jeff can answer better, but they're going to need to spend some additional spread-it-around cash, no?  [Maybe a couple of relief guys, maybe a LaStella replacement; maybe a Russell replacement; possibly a Caratini replacement...] 

3.  Are any thrift guys (Caratini, La Stella, and Bote) or minor leaguers ready to replace a movable salary?  Not sure. With no farm system, it's hard to replace a salary you might trade.  And salaries like Heyward, Kinsler, Chatwood, and Darvish nobody wants.  So, kinda hard to free up any spending money. 

4.  Theo presumably plans for a sharply programmed salary spiral for the next couple of years.  Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Theo ***hopes*** they'll be earning big jumps next year.  The only way not is if they play badly. 

In a sense they're kinda stuck.  Building with the young guys gave a window of free years for each of them; that window has closed for all but Happ.  The internal salaries will continue to inflate through the arbitration years.  And with no farm system, buying talent is their avenue to new talent.  But already being way over the luxury tax, and with the payroll programmed to continue to spiral during upcoming arb years, it's going to be hard to just keep buying their wants.

I think it's going to be some tinkering, going back to battle with largely the same personnel, and hoping better health will make it work out better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 02, 2018, 10:08:21 pm
Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could be a possibility. I’d rather just keep him and try to fix him but that may not be an option.

Craig, the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA because Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent. If you believe he’s the guy that could make the difference and choose to sit out because of financial concerns, that’d be a real shame.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 02, 2018, 10:43:19 pm
I really think some bad team with money (maybe the Tigers?) should trade for Chatwood and take on a significant portion of his contract. They have nothing to lose, but he has great stuff and real upside in the very unlikely scenario that he figures out his command.

The alternative is giving someone like Jeremy Hellickson $6 million with the hope that he'll be good enough to get some other team's 17th best prospect at the deadline. Why not bet on Chatwood's upside instead?

Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could be a possibility.

I don't think packaging Russell with anyone helps. He's just not that good at anything but defense, and it's a big PR hit to add him. I'd bet a cheap steak dinner that he's non-tendered in a few weeks. But Theo's good, maybe he'll convince some other team to take him.

the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA because Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent.

The real unicorn was Yelich last offseason. I'm never giving this up--Cubs should've been all in on him last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brs2 on November 02, 2018, 10:44:21 pm
In the absence of these articles, I would not necessarily read the Smyly trade as a sign of financial limitation. The Hamels option was very unique, and gave the Cubs momentary $6mm leverage over the Rangers. With a Hamels signing, Smyly’s opportunities to start with the Cubs are greatly reduced, and $7 is a high price for a complete unknown in the bullpen. Plus because of Smyly’s uncertainty / risk, relying on him in 2019 would make it more difficult to move other pieces (and the Cubs may have felt the need to bring in another BOR starter FA). …. So at the end of the day, the Cubs increase payroll by only $7 ($14 for Hamels - $7 from Smyly), give themselves more depth / flexibility in the rotation, clear a roster space, and move an unnecessary contract to perhaps the only team which had any incentive to take him with his risk / salary (without bundling a better piece with him).  For the Rangers, they essentially get the Smyly spin of the wheel for $1. And Smyly gets a better chance to start. Win-Win-Win…..
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 03, 2018, 02:34:59 am
This team can be fixed without investing 300 million dollars into one single player.

I'd like to see us look into acquiring a real leadoff man and another closer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 03, 2018, 07:48:51 am
I like that approach, Dusty.  Who do you have in mind?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 07:56:14 am
Theo didn't sound like he wanted to be a surgeon this offseason, more like a lumberjack.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 03, 2018, 08:09:09 am
Theo is a master of the misdirection.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on November 03, 2018, 09:03:35 am
The Cubs couldn’t move Russell last year. They will get nothing for him this year.

Finances will NOT be an issue this season. We will exceed the luxury tax threshold if Theo feels it makes sense.

The team would prefer to not stay over the luxury tax for multiple consecutive years but no concern about doing so for 1 or possibly 2 seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 03, 2018, 09:08:09 am
...…. So at the end of the day, the Cubs increase payroll by only $7 ($14 for Hamels - $7 from Smyly)....  For the Rangers, they essentially get the Smyly spin of the wheel for $1. And Smyly gets a better chance to start. Win-Win-Win…..

AGree with logic, but the numbers are off by $6.  :)   Cubs are paying Hamels $20, not $14.  So, $13 in payroll bump. 

I don't totally see the "no room for Smyly" part, though.  If a guy is good as a starter, he should be good in relief; usually better, because he doesn't have to pace himself and can throw harder, and he doesn't need to be wasting pitches throwing his 3rd and 4th best pitches trying to set guy up for 2nd and 3rd time through the order.  And having 5 well-used starters is no guarantee that they'll stay good and available all year; so having a guy in relief who could swing to rotation seems like a desirable contingency protection to me.  Whether he'd have been worth the $7M they'd contracted for that purpose, not sure.  (Especially since he was never that good in the first place, and has always been a home-run factory even when healthy.)  But, basically other than their budget challenges, his situation now must be pretty much what they expected when they signed him.  They new 2018 was a rehab year; and they should have known that coming off a rehab year maybe their would be no way to trust that he'd be worth entrusting a rotation spot to.

Two things have changed, of course.  At the time they signed him then, they did NOT expect to be spending $128M on Yu.  Nor that they'd be looking at a $20/1 option on Hamels.  So, I don't think entering last year that they anticipated being so spent out as the ensuing months have enabled. 

2nd, I believe they had a belief last year that signing injured pitchers was a value opportunity:  post-surgery guys cost less, so **IF** health proves fine, you've got some bargain potential.  I imagine it's possible that going 0-4 in gambling on post-surgery pitchers last year, that maybe they have re-evaltuated and chilled on that strategy, and are reluctant to play that lottery again this winter? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 11:25:30 am
Smyly had a lot of incentives in his contract for starting and relieving. If he was a reliever he could of made an additional $2.6 million and more if he was a starter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 03, 2018, 12:25:51 pm
After watching Gore's last at bat, I don't ever want to see him at the plate again for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 03, 2018, 12:46:19 pm
Cubs will need to hire a new assistant hitting coach:

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Andy Haines was hired by brewers as hitting coach
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 12:47:03 pm
Andy Haines hired by the Brewers as their hitting coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 03, 2018, 02:08:39 pm
I like that approach, Dusty.  Who do you have in mind?

I'd say go after Kimbrel first but as far as leadoff options I dont see many great ones.

Pollack maybe and move Happ to 2nd and Javy to SS after whatever we do with Russell.

Russell for Merrifield would be ideal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 03:03:01 pm
Russell has no trade value.

Outside of Harper or Machado it is hard to see any external improvements to the offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 03, 2018, 03:12:32 pm


Russell for Merrifield would be ideal.

Thats a good one!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 03, 2018, 03:26:58 pm
It would be wouldnt it?

Im all for it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 03, 2018, 06:28:14 pm
Of course it would be a great trade because Russell is more expensive, has less team control, is a domestic abuser, and isn't as good of a player.

I know a lot of people here want to spend a lot on relievers, but I still see expensive relievers as too big of a risk. Cubs need to bring back Chavez at a reasonable price, then trade for one of the Giants lefties (Will Smith or Tony Watson). Stay away from Kimbrel.

MLB Trade Rumors released their top 50 prospects and predictions yesterday. They had the Cubs signing McCutchen (3 years, $45 million) and Chavez (2 years, $8 million). I like Chavez at that price. I'm not sure about McCutchen, though.

They have all three second tier outfielders at $15 million a year (McCutchen & Brantley for 3 years; Pollock for 4 years). If the Cubs were to sign a non-Harper OF, which of these three would posters here prefer? I think I'd lean Brantley. His health history is bad, but he stayed healthy in 2018. Of the three, I think he's the best bet to just be a solid all-around hitter, which is what the Cubs need. I especially like some of what Keith Law had in his write-up (Law's #4 free agent after Machado, Harper, and Corbin):

Quote
Brantley is an extremely disciplined hitter who had positive run values for all six pitch types this year per FanGraphs, making him one of only 11 qualified hitters to do so (and the only one who's a free agent). He's an average defender in left, which limits his total upside, and even in this homer-laden era, he has never topped 20 home runs. But he's also fully healthy and has at least some of the skills we'd want to see in a hitter about to sign a contract that will take him into his mid-30s. I could see him holding 3-4 wins a year for some time, with a good chance of a 5.0 win season somewhere in the next few years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 06:43:51 pm
I would do Schwarber for Merrifield, personally.  Don't think KC would but it's not impossible.  Then try and sign Miller.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 03, 2018, 06:50:12 pm
If we have to sign one, give me McCutchen.  Play him in RF and bat him leadoff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 07:56:20 pm
If you’re looking for a pure leadoff guy I don’t know if McCutcheon makes the most sense. And that move weakens your defense a lot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 03, 2018, 08:13:00 pm
If you're playing Ian Happ as the heavy part of CF platoon, replacing him with Heyward and installing McCutchen in RF doesn't really hurt your defense much at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 03, 2018, 08:26:31 pm
McCutchen has only had 1 season with an OBP below .360.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 08:36:49 pm
Brantley would be interesting as a leadoff option, the injury history and price tag would scare me.  He is worse than Schwarber in left field. Can he play RF? 

Without Schwarber that would mean the Cubs would have 2 OF with double digit HR on the roster in Happ and Brantley which kinda makes the Cubs lack of power in the second half worse.  The Cubs nonpitchers had a .344 OBP and the 8th lowest K% in the majors. They were 20th in ISO.

 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 09:24:01 pm
McCutchen has only had 1 season with an OBP below .360.

He’s a speed-based player on the wrong side of the hill. Unless it’s a one-year deal I’m out. Much rather bring in a true CF who can lead off and leave Heyward in right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 09:25:37 pm
Without Schwarber that would mean the Cubs would have 2 OF with double digit HR on the roster in Happ and Brantley which kinda makes the Cubs lack of power in the second half worse.  The Cubs nonpitchers had a .344 OBP and the 8th lowest K% in the majors. They were 20th in ISO.

Merrifield has 31 HR in the last 2 seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 09:46:25 pm
Merrifield never had more than 10 HR in a minor league season.  He's had 2 (332 PA), 19 (630 PA), 12 (707 PA) in the majors.  His .134 ISO last year was less than the Cubs non-pitcher ISO of .159 which ranked 20th in MLB and was the lowest of any teams that made the playoffs.  Schwarber was second on the Cubs with a .229 ISO.  Trading Schwarber for Merrifield makes things worse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 09:56:25 pm
How is 31 HR in 2 seasons not an “OF with double digit HR”?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 03, 2018, 10:44:11 pm
How is 31 HR in 2 seasons not an “OF with double digit HR”?

My example didn't have Merrifield on the Cubs, but lets move Schwarber for him and sign Brantley.  Last year the Cubs produced 31 HR in LF, 13 HR in CF, 12 HR in RF.  How many HR do you think Brantley, Merrifield, Heyward produce as your starters?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 03, 2018, 11:07:51 pm
If I moved Schwarber for Merrifield i wouldn’t sign Brantley, so for me it’s a moot point. But I would say the over/under on HR with either of those guys on HR is about 15 if they play a full season (which Merrifield is the better bet to).

To me, if you sign Brantley (which I would be very wary of based on age and health related imminent decline), you keep Kyle.  If you did trade Kyle for Merrifield I think that would actually be a scenario where signing McCutcheon might make sense.  But the big draw for Merrifield is that he can play legit and maybe even plus defense at both 2B and especially CF.  Brantley is strictly a left fielder and at this stage, not even an especially good one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 04, 2018, 12:22:28 am
In what universe is Merrifield a plus defender?  He’s barely league average at 2B and his defense in the OF has been below average.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 04, 2018, 01:31:24 am
The one where defensive metrics showed he was above average in range at both 2B and CF last year and 2B in 2017, and where he was +1.4 dWAR last season?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 04, 2018, 06:58:17 am
At second base from 2017-18 he has 500 balls in his zone at second base.  He made plays on 355 balls, only Robison Cano had a lower percentage.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 04, 2018, 07:23:11 am
In what universe is Merrifield a plus defender?  He’s barely league average at 2B and his defense in the OF has been below average.

Sorry, should have said "the huge one you habitually ignore whenever it doesn't support whatever failed narrative you're peddling this week."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 04, 2018, 08:29:00 am
Andy Haines hired by the Brewers as their hitting coach.

Bleacher Nation:  You also don’t love the fact that someone like Haines, who saw many of these Cubs hitters in the Minors and again in the big leagues over the past three seasons, is going directly to a divisional rival, where he might just be able to share various weaknesses with the pitching coach and staff. Shrug. It happens. And it was probably part of the calculus for Milwaukee.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 04, 2018, 08:44:53 am
I think any other team who has decent professional scouts already has a pretty good idea of Schwarber's, Happ's, Almora's, Russell's, and Baez's respective weaknesses. They're all flawed hitters (even Baez, though his superior talent clearly can mostly cover those weaknesses) who aren't that hard to figure out. That's why the offense fell apart this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 04, 2018, 10:42:55 am
Kaplan tweeted this morning and said that based on conversations he’d had this weekend, he’s more convinced than ever that the Cubs aren’t spending on Harper.

What bats are on the trade market that might fit? The Diamondbacks are rumored to be tearing down, would David Peralta or Ketel Marte fit? Adam Eaton if the Nationals bring back Harper?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 04, 2018, 11:56:00 am
Wasn't a significant part of Cubs' "broken" offense in the 2nd half the result of Bryant being "broken" due to shoulder problems?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 04, 2018, 12:49:10 pm
The offseason goes back and forth 100 different ways based on what we believe from certain writers until we actually see the truth with signings.

Ive found that Dave Kaplan normally knows what he's talking about though.

Ive made it clear that I didnt want Harper and his contract but I do find it disappointing if we truly are strapped for cash and dont intend to spend what's needed.

300 million for 1 player? No but 100 million or so for a few I was hoping.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 04, 2018, 01:14:17 pm
I would love for the Cubs to sign Harper (not Machado), but I have never thought it particularly likely the Cubs would sign him, given other huge current and future commitments, not to mention the fact that there are other teams who need him at least as much who will be competing for him. 

My guess is that they will express interest and see where the market goes with Harper.  If it is true that the Cubs are not prepared to commit $300-360 over 10-11 years (or whatever similar amount it would take), that seems reasonable to me.  That doesn't mean they aren't willing to spend big to improve the team, however.  Apparently it is inevitable that they will blow by the salary cap, so it's not like they are pinching pennies. It seems to me that we and the press have been wrong in the past in speculating just how limited the Cubs' budget would be in the coming season.  Let's see how things pan out before reaching any conclusions about what their limitations are.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 04, 2018, 01:25:30 pm
What are the future commitments that would be better/more important than Harper?  Assuming they are going to have some huge contracts coming up, there is nobody on the team who better than Harper. Why save to spend money on worse (and at the time, older) players?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 04, 2018, 05:10:33 pm
The Cubs are in a small bind in that to really entertain Brantley or Harper or any outfielder, they need to unload one or two first, otherwise they will deal from a weaker position.  On the other hand, with all these outfielders on the free agent table, who wants to deal for an outfielder?  Catch 22.  And the Cubs are in it.  As far as our outfielders are concerned, I'm not sure of Schwarber's value.  An AL team may see him with real value as a DH, but what return would the Cubs get?  Almora?  With Happ in a trade, we'd probably regret the most.  Heyward's contract ain't goin' anywhere. 

As far as Russell is concerned, another headache.  Best may be to let him serve out his suspension, try to spin his return as good as possible, and trade him on his first hot streak.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 04, 2018, 05:37:58 pm
Wasn't a significant part of Cubs' "broken" offense in the 2nd half the result of Bryant being "broken" due to shoulder problems?

Shoulder problems which may or may not be fixed (and recurring).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 04, 2018, 05:45:44 pm
Say the Cubs add Harper. The Cubs could go Schwarber in left, Heyward/Almora platoon, Harper in right. Against lefties you could put Bryant in left and let Bolte play third.

Longengagen was proprosed a Jon Gray for Happ trade and he said the Cubs would turn it down. So Happ could net something interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 04, 2018, 05:59:01 pm
I think Schwarber's trade value is interesting. I don't think he's as valuable as most Cubs fans think, and rebuilding teams probably aren't interested. But I also think he could still be pretty valuable in the right situation. I wouldn't be shocked if he could be the primary piece in a deal for Carrasco, for example, because he's probably close to the best Cleveland can do for a hitter who can help them now but still fit within their budget. There are probably other situations like that out there.

IMO, I don't think they can bring Russell back. His bat has just never developed, so he's not that good--he's not a hot streak away from having significant value again. If the budget is as tight as it's being portrayed to be, they need that $5 million they would be paying him more than they need a marginally better prospect they'd get from letting him play a couple months. They should give him away for whatever they can get in the next couple of weeks or non-tender him at the end of the month.

I'd hate to lose Happ just because of his versatility, but I also think his trade value is undersold by Cubs fans. I'd love to still have him coming off the bench and getting about 400 AB next year. But he's probably going to have to go if they're going to make a big trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 04, 2018, 05:59:31 pm
Here's Kaplan's tweet... Good morning! After talking with a handful of MLB sources this weekend, I am starting to believe more than ever the Cubs will not be a factor for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. The only way that changes is if Theo and Jed and Co. are able to move serious money off the books.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 04, 2018, 06:00:13 pm
Patrick Mooney says the Cubs are strongly considering keeping Addison Russell.

Hell we welcomed Aroldis Chapman with open arms under the same regime.

I wouldnt trade him unless it was in our best interest baseball wise.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 04, 2018, 06:16:32 pm
There is a baseball reason. The Cubs have a dysfunctional offense, and Russell isn't a good major league hitter. So replacing him with someone better would help the team.

The fact that there's also an off-the-field reason he should go just makes it that much easier to dump him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 04, 2018, 07:59:05 pm
"Dump" is the key word.  Probably no real value there, so what's the hurry?  Do it now or do it in March after exhausting all avenues, the result is the same.

BR, I'm not convinced most Cub fans think Schwarber's trade value is all that high.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 04, 2018, 08:15:41 pm
Only time will definitively tell about Bryant's shoulder, but here's what Theo said after the season ended:

"With the offseason of rest and getting a full winter's worth of work in, he's gonna be 100 percent and better than ever," Epstein said. "...He is taking a really positive approach to it where he's learned a lot from the time that he missed."

We shall see.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 04, 2018, 09:47:36 pm
The Cubs are in a small bind in that to really entertain Brantley or Harper or any outfielder, they need to unload one or two first, otherwise they will deal from a weaker position.  On the other hand, with all these outfielders on the free agent table, who wants to deal for an outfielder?  Catch 22.  And the Cubs are in it.  As far as our outfielders are concerned, I'm not sure of Schwarber's value.  An AL team may see him with real value as a DH, but what return would the Cubs get?  Almora?  With Happ in a trade, we'd probably regret the most.  Heyward's contract ain't goin' anywhere. 

As far as Russell is concerned, another headache.  Best may be to let him serve out his suspension, try to spin his return as good as possible, and trade him on his first hot streak.

The Cubs traded for Chapman, who admitted to doing worse things than Russell has been only accused of, with little concern from the vast majority of the fans.  If Russell actually begins to fulfill his offensive promise, I doubt that they would trade him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 04, 2018, 10:45:47 pm
I finally read Mooney's piece on the Cubs and Russell.  There sure didn't seem to much substance to it, which I think is not terribly unusual for Mooney. Much of the article consists of Theo's quotes from his press conference after the end of the season.

Is it a surprise, given Theo's presumably carefully crafted comments, that the Cubs have not yet made any firm decision on Russell? I assume the Cubs are monitoring Russell's counseling and that they are in touch with his ex-wife, and sensitive to her own views on this. And that they are involved in considerable internal discussion about how to best respond to this situation, both as it directly relates to Russell and his ex, but also how to minimize the potential for this sort of thing in the future with other players.  I can't imagine otherwise.

Is there a scenario in which Russell might be welcomed back?  I imagine there is, however unlikely. Russell has already moved from a total denial of doing anything wrong to accepting the unpaid suspension without appeal. If the Cubs come to believe that Russell truly understands the seriousness of what he did, is genuinely repentant and seems determined to become a better man; and his ex-wife is supportive of the decision to give him another chance, then I could see the Cubs offering him a second chance.  Sometimes people do change, and Theo strikes me as someone who would want to be open to that.

I am confident that there is no one on this board who feels more strongly about domestic violence than I do, and as a general matter I think abusers tend to continue to be abusers. But even I am open to the potential that Russell could be an exception and I pretty much trust Theo and company to be exercise good judgment in determining the way forward with regard to Russell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 05, 2018, 08:09:39 am
If it's OK for Russell to play for other teams, why isn't it OK for him to play for the Cubs?  If I were the Cubs, I would be concerned about whether Russell will be an asset baseball-wise, whether he is a significant risk to have another episode where he might be suspended for even longer, and whether he is a detriment in the clubhouse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 05, 2018, 09:05:06 am
How much of Addison Russell's poor 2018 season was due to his finger and shoulder injuries and how much can be attributed to the pressure of his legal situation?

Assuming he is now healthy, it may come down to how well he is able to become his old self.   In this case, the potential reward is much greater than the risk.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 05, 2018, 09:12:56 am
Seems to me, in sports, if he can help the team, she had it coming.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 05, 2018, 10:30:56 am
Sahadev Sharma on the Cubs' off-season options.

https://theathletic.com/634635/2018/11/05/sharma-will-the-cubs-risk-closing-their-window-by-keeping-the-status-quo-this-offseason/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 05, 2018, 03:47:54 pm
If indeed the Cubs bring Russell back, it needs to be at 2B with Baez at SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 04:45:15 pm
Russell is the better defensive SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 05, 2018, 04:48:09 pm
If Russell is back, it’s only to play well enough to build up a little trade value. The future at SS is Baez either way and the Cubs need to see just how much he elevates his defense playing there every day. He was already doing so by the end of last season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 05, 2018, 05:44:37 pm
Guessing that Cubs will try to find a trade partner for Russell this month--before tender deadline end of the month. 

Wonder if Royals would see value in taking on Russell--in a Merrifield deal?

Royals might like Happ too, with five years of control. Merrifield has four years of control, so think Happ, at five, might be more appealing to them than Schwarber, at three years of control.  Would rather keep Schwarber here in any case, especially with no Bryce.

Merrifield is 8.1 fWar guy over last two years and 9.3 bWAR. And, sometimes we overlook out-of-fashion things, like SBs--but Merrifield is an 80% base stealer and has led AL in steals two years running.  Would like that at top of Cubs lineup with a guy who also was #1 in AL in hits and #6 in doubles and BA. Don't really care about his minor league stats with two years running in majors with good performance and plenty of PAs.

Defensive Runs Saved has Merrifield with most in baseball at 2B over last two seasons, other than GG guys LeMahieu and Kinsler and Fielding Bible winner Wong. 

Think that trumps the zone chances stuff that Fangraphs notes "has fallen out of fashion over the years" in light of other, better stats, such as DRS.  In any case, if folks are like me and don't get to see KC much, probably better to just admit we don't know a whole lot about Merrifield defense with any confidence. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 05, 2018, 06:14:55 pm
Reb?  Reb?  We used to have a guy named Reb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 05, 2018, 06:22:04 pm
I don't see any chance KC would take Happ and Russell for Merrifield, largely because right now I don't think Russell has any positive trade value.  If they would I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 05, 2018, 06:40:29 pm
Welcome back, Reb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 06:49:00 pm
Merrifield in 2076 iinnings at 2B has 13 DRS, which is the only advanced stat that likes his fielding.

Baez in 1203 has 10, Zobrist in 937 has 7 for comparison.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 05, 2018, 06:59:41 pm
#Cubs unlikely to add significant $ this offseason. Best chance for substantial change would be if they move a core piece such as Schwarber to address other needs.--Joel Sherman
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 05, 2018, 07:31:16 pm
Theo Epstein confirms the Cubs are digging into the Addison Russell case and feel a responsibility to get it right because "this happened on our watch." Epstein says: "Everything remains an open question."--Patrick Mooney
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 07:50:40 pm
Biggest news so far is no extension for Joe and they won’t talk about until the end of the next season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 05, 2018, 07:59:07 pm
Insofar as Merrifield’s defense goes, we can’t use RZR. That tells us that Zobrist is a better 2B last two seasons than LeMahieu, Wong, and Baez. So, let’s discount that.

DRS says Merrifield has been better than Albies but not as good as the premier guys.

As I said before, you have to mix in some eyeballing scouting and would like to hear from anybody who has been watching Royals games regularly last two seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 05, 2018, 08:09:43 pm
I don't see any chance KC would take Happ and Russell for Merrifield, largely because right now I don't think Russell has any positive trade value.  If they would I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.

Really hard to know about Russell value. If the perception is that 28 other teams don’t want him, period, or that Cubs will non-tender him in the end, then the one other club who maybe wants him will get him for next to nothing.

But, not so sure either is true. Mostly guesswork to know what the industry thinks at this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 05, 2018, 08:30:30 pm
Insofar as Merrifield’s defense goes, we can’t use RZR. That tells us that Zobrist is a better 2B last two seasons than LeMahieu, Wong, and Baez. So, let’s discount that.

DRS says Merrifield has been better than Albies but not as good as the premier guys.

As I said before, you have to mix in some eyeballing scouting and would like to hear from anybody who has been watching Royals games regularly last two seasons.

Also worth considering that in a small but not minuscule sample size both scouts and advanced defensive metrics liked Merrifield's defense in CF pretty well.  And that could be his primary role as a Cub, depending on what else they might do this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 05, 2018, 08:52:17 pm
This sounds like Theo is walking back his end-of-season press conference where he accurately defined the offense as "broken." I guess two years of dysfunctional offense and lack of development from several young hitters isn't enough to convince him that they need to make some changes. He'd fit in well on this board.

Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub
Theo says 2019 is big year for where team goes next/competitive window (for him, mgr player core): "I think we’re really talented. … It’s time to produce or else there’s a chance for significant change for the group. So that’s really where our focus is. … It’s a pivotal year."


Hopefully this is just posturing. This team will be hoping to sneak in to the playoffs through a wild card spot next year if they don't make significant changes to the offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 09:07:14 pm
Insofar as Merrifield’s defense goes, we can’t use RZR. That tells us that Zobrist is a better 2B last two seasons than LeMahieu, Wong, and Baez. So, let’s discount that.

DRS says Merrifield has been better than Albies but not as good as the premier guys.

As I said before, you have to mix in some eyeballing scouting and would like to hear from anybody who has been watching Royals games regularly last two seasons.

Tango Tiger runs a fan scouting report at his site and Fangraphs posts it.

Baez had a 77, 84, 73 overall the last 3 years
Zobrist 47, 54, 43
Merrifield 53, 58


Merrifield
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 09:17:59 pm
Also worth considering that in a small but not minuscule sample size both scouts and advanced defensive metrics liked Merrifield's defense in CF pretty well.  And that could be his primary role as a Cub, depending on what else they might do this offseason.

They also liked Happ’s CF defense in 100 more innings than Merrifield in 2017. 
 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 05, 2018, 09:23:26 pm
Also worth considering that in a small but not minuscule sample size both scouts and advanced defensive metrics liked Merrifield's defense in CF pretty well.  And that could be his primary role as a Cub, depending on what else they might do this offseason.

It’s possible that Merrifield could have a Zobrist-Lite type career, without the HR power but more speed. Zobrist too didn’t become a major league regular until age 28. That would be optimistic. Zobrist is moving up the all-time 2B career bWAR totals—-ahead of a couple HOFers already (Schoendiest and Maz).  Of course we know Cubs brass values versatility.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 05, 2018, 09:25:23 pm
This sounds like Theo is walking back his end-of-season press conference where he accurately defined the offense as "broken." I guess two years of dysfunctional offense and lack of development from several young hitters isn't enough to convince him that they need to make some changes. He'd fit in well on this board.

Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub
Theo says 2019 is big year for where team goes next/competitive window (for him, mgr player core): "I think we’re really talented. … It’s time to produce or else there’s a chance for significant change for the group. So that’s really where our focus is. … It’s a pivotal year."


Hopefully this is just posturing. This team will be hoping to sneak in to the playoffs through a wild card spot next year if they don't make significant changes to the offense.

The quote was broken in the second half.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 05, 2018, 09:41:05 pm
One way the events of the past few weeks could be interpreted is that Theo has a lot less money to spend then he thought he did when he had that press conference.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 05, 2018, 09:45:43 pm
I'm highly skeptical about the speculation concerning Theo's plans for 2019.  He plays it close to the vest.  I'm looking forward to some significant moves.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 06, 2018, 12:11:59 am
I don't buy it.  This whole situation surrounding the Cubs is taking on the air of the surreal.  First Theo says things are broken and - quire testily by his standards - implies big changes are coming.  Now he says he's basically rolling with what he has but that the manager and the team are effectively on trial, and if things don't improve he's going to blow it up?

Don't care what anybody says - this is not normal.  And after what's gone down if the team does struggle next season things could get really ugly.  Management by ultimatum almost never works, and it seems very out of character for Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 06, 2018, 02:45:01 am
I just read a few articles mentioning DJ LeMahieu as someone to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 06, 2018, 07:43:49 am
Quote from: Bruce Miles
Speaking of LeMahieu, he might look good coming back to the Cubs, who traded him in December 2011 in a clunker of a deal that brought third baseman Ian Stewart to Chicago. Stewart played in only 55 games with the Cubs, batting .201 while LeMahieu is a two-time all-star.
Miles isn't doing anything more than thinking out loud and does not suggest a trade might be in the work.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 06, 2018, 08:52:24 am
and then we can go get that Brock guy and Joe Carter and Josh Donaldson and
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 06, 2018, 09:31:42 am
The quote was broken in the second half.

Quite often, people hear (and read) what they want to hear.  Saying the offense was broken in the second half is quite different than saying that the offense is broken (permanently).  I haven't seen the numbers, but I suspect that if Bryant and Contreras had years in 2018 similar to those in 2017, we wouldn't be talking about broken offenses.  And there is good reason to expect that both Bryant and Contreras will return to what has been typical performances prior to last year.  I don't think that this front office is planning to make MAJOR changes to the offense (Harper or Machado) unless the market drops to the point where they think it is a bargain, as happened with Darvish last year.

I think that they will be looking to add a middle-of-the-rotation starter (a Chatsworth type) and perhaps a mid-level offensive player such as Lemehieu, but I don't look for blockbuster moves unless one falls into their lap.

This team won 95 games last year with offensive problems that hopefully are non-recurring.  This is hardly the time to clean house.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 06, 2018, 09:43:16 am
Agree, DaveP.  Well said.  95 wins doesn't suggest it's time to "clean house" and the way I'm reading the tea leaves, Theo agrees.   In fact, just hearing a clip of what Theo said about "Addy," I think Theo will give him a shot to prove he's rehabilitated and provide him a 2nd chance.

One of the hard lessons MLB (and life) teaches is that change doesn't always work out to be better!

IF Bryant is Bryant going forward (as Theo believes he will be) and Contreras hits better next season (as Theo believes he will), the offense shouldn't be "broken" in 2019.  Seems to me Theo also believes Schwarber and Happ will be better next season, which feels realistic to me.

You have to give up something to get something.  I'd be thrilled if we sign Harper, but I'm not aware of all of the implications of making such a HUGE financial move.  Theo will be.  If we don't get Harper or another top player, I'll be sanguine in the knowledge that Theo looked at the situation 10 different ways and made a careful, reasonable assessment...which may turn out best or not. 

His crystal ball isn't perfect either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 06, 2018, 09:45:26 am
Dave, don't think rotation of the caliber or magnitude of Chatwood last year. 
1.  They've already got 6:  Hamel, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish for rotation, Montgomery as #6. 
2.  Given other needs, they won't invest much of their limited resources towards rotation.
3.  Smyly seemed a nice fit as a contingency #7 starter, and to address the acute need for lefty reliever.  But they contract-dumped him to save $7M.  That suggests how little they want to spend on rotation depth. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 06, 2018, 09:50:57 am
Dave, don't think rotation of the caliber or magnitude of Chatwood last year. 
1.  They've already got 6:  Hamel, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish for rotation, Montgomery as #6. 
2.  Given other needs, they won't invest much of their limited resources towards rotation.
3.  Smyly seemed a nice fit as a contingency #7 starter, and to address the acute need for lefty reliever.  But they contract-dumped him to save $7M.  That suggests how little they want to spend on rotation depth. 

I'm guessing the Cubs hope that Albert Alzolay will provide some additional backup for the starting rotation.  Before his injury last year, wasn't that the expectation for 2018?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 06, 2018, 10:09:15 am
....His crystal ball isn't perfect either.

This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 06, 2018, 10:15:21 am
I'm guessing the Cubs hope that Albert Alzolay will provide some additional backup for the starting rotation.  Before his injury last year, wasn't that the expectation for 2018?

Agree, that was and is a hope.  That would really help, if he could emerge as a good pitcher and be available as needed.  Cubs really haven't had that yet during Hoyer's run with the Cubs; to have a capable prospect ready and waiting in case a need arises would be really fun.  I'd say the same could go for helping in relief, too.  **IF** he's a good pitcher, I don't see why he'd not perhaps be able to pick up some innings in relief if/when the need arises. 

That said, Adbert had a 4.76 ERA in Iowa, and was a lot worse than that after a couple of good outings at the beginning.  So he's probably got some significant improvement needed to become a big-league asset.  Hopefully that happens, creating some new talent from the farm could really change a lot. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 06, 2018, 10:44:10 am
This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 

From the time Theo came to the Cubs he has cautioned that not all prospects will work out and that mistakes are inevitable.  It is truly astonishing that Cub prospects other than Soler (Baez, Almora, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Happ - not to mention Torres & Jimenez) have all worked out, either as decent/good major leaguers or as outright stars. That not all have or will become stars should be no surprise. I mean, really?

That Theo and his colleagues may have erred in some of their projections is certainly no surprise to them. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of us either. That's the nature of projections. And it certainly shouldn't diminish our appreciation of the extraordinary quality of talent in the front office.  Let's not over-react.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 06, 2018, 10:46:06 am
Other thought, is that I don't think they really anticipated spending the big money on Darvish last year.  I think the long-term plan had been to spend less then, and have more discretionary money available this year and going forward for the great FA crop.  But I wonder if to some extent they perceived an opportunity with Darvish, and decided to strike while the opportunity was there?  Even if that might mean taking themselves out of some of the big-ticket opportunities available now? 

They might have also anticipated producing a bundle of millions in playoff revenue, which didn't quite actualize with just one wildcard game? 

Yu was probably an "unplanned" big-ticket, and the same was probably true for Heyward?  By all accounts, Heyward was an unplanned, over-budget expenditure that required special approval from Crane K and Ricketts, etc..  But I think they just saw Heyward and Darvish as such unique opportunities that they maybe borrowed forward to get those guys that they liked so much, when opportunity unexpectedly opened itself. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 06, 2018, 12:59:50 pm
The Cubs just picked up a $20 million option on a pitcher and they are above the CBT, they aren't exactly being cheap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 06, 2018, 01:17:27 pm
This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 


You seem to believe that at the age of 24 - 26, these players have all reached their peak.  Believe it or not, some players actually get better after they pass the mid twenties.

Russell already WAS a middle of the order hitter, with 21 home runs and 95 RBIs at age 22 or so.  Last year he was plagued by injuries.  Will he return to his 2016 form?  I have no idea.  But it seems to be a little early to decide definitely that he will not.

I don't recall anyone with the expectation that Almora would develop into a power hitter.  As I see it, he is pretty much as was expected - a very good defensive center fielder with a decent offensive capability.  His career OPS is currently .738, not insubstantial for an excellent defensive center fielder, and again, occasionally, players actually get better after age 24.

Schwarber had an OPS of .823, and provided left handed power to a very weak lineup.  He has not performed as a superstar, but that is a pretty high bar to set for any prospect.  Of course, since he is 25, it is probably too late for his hitting to improve very much.

Happ should be written off, since after two seasons, he has yet to OPS higher than .842.  What hope could there possibly be for him.

They obviously missed on Soler, and Chatwood has been horrible, as well as some others.  I don't know of any front office that has not had their share of really big misses.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 06, 2018, 01:28:44 pm
I've seen several reports on Twitter today that the Mariners might be tearing down. Any fits there for the Cubs? Obviously Haniger and Diaz fit, but some of the reports say that those are the two players they plan to hold onto (and I don't think the Cubs could afford them anyway). Maybe Jean Segura? He'd make it that much easier to walk away from Russell.

There was also a new Twitter report today that the Diamondbacks are willing to listen on everyone, even Goldschmidt. Ketel Marte is somewhat interesting (in part because he helps make Russell go away), and David Peralta is probably a better fit than any of the second tier OF free agents.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 06, 2018, 01:43:21 pm
Arizona just exercised a $14.5 million team option on Paul Goldschmidt who will be a free agent after the 2019 season.  Goldy will not be in Harper or Machado territory in 2020 but he won't be far behind.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 06, 2018, 01:45:07 pm
He is a lot older then Machado or Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2018, 02:10:39 pm
Not very keen on trading Schwarber, so hoping trade conjecture about him is misplaced.

Very impressed how Schwarber improved his defense last season to better-than-decent. He’s basically a 3 WAR guy... and maybe some upside left? Would hold my cards with him.

But, not so impressed with Happ last year. Really frustrating watching him swing-and-miss on pitches IN the strike zone. Fangraphs Z-contact rate had him at about 70%. MLB average is about 85%. Worrisome when a guy isn’t making enough contact on strikes. Maybe he’s just guessing wrong too often and, granted, ball jumps off his bat on good contact but maybe let another club take on his upside—-which is there. With five years of control and versatility and power, would think has considerable trade value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2018, 02:20:33 pm
With all the limited payroll talk about Cubs, hard to know if they can actually add a $12-15 guy...but McCutcheon seems like maybe a good fit here. Maybe gets two years max somewhere?

Presuming that Cubs trade an OFer for other help, there would be an OF opening. Good clubhouse chemistry guy, gets on base, 20 HR power. Not a CFer anymore but think would be valuable in OF mix. Always liked him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 06, 2018, 02:54:13 pm
"McCutchen"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 06, 2018, 02:56:38 pm
"McCutchen"

Thank you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 06, 2018, 03:24:04 pm
..Fangraphs Z-contact rate had him at about 70%. MLB average is about 85%. Worrisome when a guy isn’t making enough contact on strikes. Maybe he’s just guessing wrong too often and, granted, ball jumps off his bat on good contact but maybe let another club take on his upside—-which is there. With five years of control and versatility and power, would think has considerable trade value.

Schwarber is 78.7% career Z-contact.  That's a problem area for him, too, although not as acute as with Happ.  Schwarber had a career year, at 80.8% it's his first year over 79.1%. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 06, 2018, 03:42:57 pm
I'm not sure how one can call Schwarber a 3 WAR player when he's at 2.7 for his entire career.

If you compare Schwarber and Happ's stats, their careers have started off in very similar fashion - almost eerily so, in fact.  One could make the case that having both of them is overkill,  and that Happ is the more valuable because of his defensive versatility.  I think it's very likely one of them will go this winter, but I'm not sure which one Theo would rather deal.  Depends on return, I suppose.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 06, 2018, 04:01:04 pm
Because there are multiple versions on WAR and you need to specify which one you are using.

By Fangraphs he had 3.2 fWAR last year and 6.6 for his career, Steamer projects him to 2.9 next year.  Adding up fWAR vs Win totals last year.  4 teams differed by 4 wins, 6 by 3 wins, 9 by 2 wins, 10 by 1 win and 9 had a 0 win difference.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 06, 2018, 04:51:15 pm
I wouldnt want to trade Schwarber or Happ.

I'd move Almora.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 06, 2018, 05:43:08 pm
Hoyer mentioned that the Cubs could still have some turnover.

According to Rogers Hickey hasn’t been confirmed to be back as pitching coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on November 06, 2018, 11:48:17 pm
I wonder if anyone would bite on Yu Darvish? Moving him could give the flexibility the Cubs lack.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 07, 2018, 12:55:32 am
That’s not even a discussion. No one will take that contract until Yu shows he’s recovered from his elbow issues, and if he has it will look like a bargain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on November 07, 2018, 10:25:15 am
There are some rumblings that the Rangers would take him back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 07, 2018, 10:36:33 am
for 50 bucks in international money and we pay 100% of his salary?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 07, 2018, 12:07:22 pm
Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Baseball exec after some meetings with different teams . “ Cubs and White Sox are looking for bullpen help. Sox are seeking a starter who can bring some experience to their rotation .Cubs looking for versatility in position players”


A lot of responses to this on Twitter seem to think Marwin Gonzalez is going to be the "versatility" target, which would be pretty disappointing. He's not that good--he's basically the 2018 version of Ian Happ at the plate minus a few strikeouts--so he doesn't really move the needle on fixing the lineup.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 07, 2018, 12:19:28 pm
If Bryant and Contreras return to their previous levels, the lineup will largely be fixed.  I doubt that they are going to bring in any free agent or trade for anyone that will make a major impact on their lineup without that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 12:32:51 pm
If the Cubs can't move Chatwood and he doesn't have a place in the starting rotation because the other five are healthy and ready to go, the Cubs have eight "salaried" relievers already, plus an out-of-options Allen Webster.

Chatwood, Tyler
Cishek, Steve
Duensing, Brian
Edwards, Carl Jr.
Kintzler, Brandon
Montgomery, Mike
Morrow, Brandon
Strop, Pedro

There will have to be some creative movement if they want to bring back Chavez and add someone else even on top of that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 07, 2018, 12:35:14 pm
Is Duensing still under contract?  Option or no option, I see Kintzler being released.  Tyler Chatwood may also have to be released and bite the bullet.  He doesn't have the control to be a reliever.  Offer him a spot in Iowa, and if doesn't want it, offer him his walking papers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 12:40:53 pm
Yes, Brian Duensing is under contract for 2019 at $3.5.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 12:41:59 pm
For your use.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 07, 2018, 12:46:00 pm
Thanks, Jeff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 07, 2018, 12:49:17 pm
Looks like Hickey may be out:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/07/yeesh-is-cubs-pitching-coach-jim-hickey-headed-out-the-door-too/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 07, 2018, 12:56:10 pm
heh.  I hear Bosio's available.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 07, 2018, 01:28:48 pm
Wow. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 07, 2018, 01:30:15 pm
I know Maddon's an old guy, and maybe tends to pick up old guys that he's had experience with way back when.  But I wonder if they might not want somebody younger, who's trying to climb? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 07, 2018, 01:32:16 pm
Could there be anything performance-based that would justify getting rid of Hickey?  Other than possibly the failure to get Chatwood on track?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 07, 2018, 01:40:38 pm
I listened to Jesse Rogers on ESPN 1000 about half an hour ago. He said again that he thinks Hickey is gone--he says the perception is that Hickey doesn't get the best out of pitchers. He's there to pat them on the back and go through the motions, but he's not engaged enough in trying to make pitchers better.

He also mentioned the Cubs are talking to a lot of teams about trades. He mentioned the Marlins and Mariners specifically (though it may be just because those are two teams that are known to be selling off).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 07, 2018, 01:47:55 pm
This is really dumb, and I should know this, but what are the contractual obligations to a salaried guy like Chatwood? 

Basically what I'm wondering is whether the Cubs can just plan to send Chatwood to Iowa?  And then only call him up if his Iowa performance justifies doing so?  Or no? 

He's obviously not going to walk away from his salary; and obviously nobody else is going to claim him **if** doing so would obligate them to pay his salary. 

Or if you try to send him to Iowa and Detroit claims him, would they only need to pay minimum, while the Cubs would have to pay the rest of his salary?  In which case sending him down might not be so easy, if you still think there's a chance he'll get fixed? 

If the Cubs can't move Chatwood and he doesn't have a place in the starting rotation because the other five are healthy and ready to go, the Cubs have eight "salaried" relievers already, plus an out-of-options Allen Webster.

Chatwood, Tyler
Cishek, Steve
Duensing, Brian
Edwards, Carl Jr.
Kintzler, Brandon
Montgomery, Mike
Morrow, Brandon
Strop, Pedro

There will have to be some creative movement if they want to bring back Chavez and add someone else even on top of that.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 01:54:47 pm
Craig, this is the passage that applies to sending Chatwood to the minors.

https://www.thecubreporter.com/right-refuse-outright-assignment-or-elect-free-agency-if-outrighted

If the Cubs tried to do that, Chatwood could simply refuse.  If he refused, this paragraph kicks in:

If a player with Article XIX-A rights refuses an Outright Assignment but does not elect free-agency, the club must either retain the player on the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), trade the player, or give the player his unconditional release.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 07, 2018, 02:03:30 pm
Perfect, thanks Jeff. 

So, if he declines and the Cubs give him his unconditional release, then the Cubs pay full salary?  So *IF* the Cardinals pick him up and fix him, the Cards would pay minimum, and the the Cubs would pay $24-25/2 instead slighly reduced from the full $26/2?? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 02:04:32 pm
Yes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 02:04:49 pm
https://670thescore.radio.com/cubs-search-bullpen-help-free-agency-gm-meetings
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 07, 2018, 03:52:45 pm
The Cubs should be less worried about finding guys who can play multiple positions and more worried about finding guys that can hit consistently.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 07, 2018, 04:14:35 pm
Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Baseball exec after some meetings with different teams . “ Cubs and White Sox are looking for bullpen help. Sox are seeking a starter who can bring some experience to their rotation .”



Quintana for Jimenez and Cease?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 07, 2018, 04:19:12 pm
Hell, let's throw in Kintzler as well...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 07, 2018, 05:04:02 pm
Think that Kintzler has a decent chance to be an asset in 2019. He has been a solid reliever three years running, except for his 18 IP with the Cubs—-with a good formula traditionally: low walks combined with low homers.

In those 18 innings, too many walks and too many homers (and a .380 BABIP). But, it’s still 18 IP, a third of a season. Not nothing but preceded by mostly pretty good work.

Maybe his style is out of fashion these days with all the power relievers around but, at this point, I think you go into 2019 opening day with him on the 25-man and see whether he will regain his usual form.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 07, 2018, 05:38:29 pm
Kintzler’s numbers with Washington last season were hardly scintillating either, though certainly better than after the trade.

I’d be happy if we took a flyer on him on a minimum deal. The problem is he’s getting 5 million and we’re apparently in a major payroll crunch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 07, 2018, 06:16:52 pm
This front office is pretty creative, I’m hopeful they’ll be able to move Kintzler’s and Duensing’s contracts in a trade. They won’t get anything back, or it may be as a throw-in to offset another contract in a bigger deal. $5 million just isn’t that much on modern baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 07:04:43 pm
Boras: "Addison is getting therapy. Addison is growing and understanding the responsibilities of his team, his league, his city. The learning curve of this is good for everybody. It’s been really, really good for Addison going forward.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 07:31:37 pm
Translation: "Addison is a worthless, piece of **** ****.  Pay him!"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 07:40:07 pm
Did you feel this way about Aroldis Chapman in say November '16?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 07:55:19 pm
I'm translating.  Try not to be a dope.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 08:13:51 pm
How am I being a dope?

Its become OK around these parts to call me whatever anyone likes but what's dopish about my question?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 08:17:18 pm
As a kid who's dad did smack his mom a few times but as a man who has never done it I just wonder if Addison was a little better baseball player would the hate here for him be as strong?

Remember that in her statement she never accused him of hitting her so does say giving her a good cussing every now and then and being unfaithful enough to merit hate especially when he's so mean to her she's rocking a Louis Vuiton purse,lady's Rolex,and driving an Escalade.

I bet all of our wives wish we mistreated them like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 08:24:59 pm
Actually, she was quite clear about him having hit her.

“The first time I was physically mistreated by my spouse, I was in shock,” Reidy-Russell wrote. “I couldn’t wrap my head around what just happened. … Why did he get so angry? What did I do for him to want to put his hands on me?"

If you want to be taken seriously around here, please try not to be worthless lying sack of ****.

No offense to you personally.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 08:30:17 pm
OK I didnt see the part about him putting hands on her.

Ive never "lied" on this board even once.

Worthless and sack of **** is your opinion.

Something else I dont think Ive ever done enough to be called.

God bless you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 08:40:48 pm
Get serious.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 07, 2018, 08:44:44 pm
Whatever you say Brother.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 07, 2018, 08:55:41 pm
Glad to see you coming around!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 06:22:48 am
You know, it's actually kind of surprising Maddon hasn't decided to bag this whole situation, considering he'd have no issues finding another job and how highly he thinks of himself.  Basically the offseason has been:


Theo says your team lacks urgency.
Theo says the team is "broken", then says a few weeks later he's basically going to roll with it.
The F.O. blows up the coaching purge you instigated and fires the guys you wanted brought in.
The F.O. not only refuses an extension, but says you'll be "evaluated" during the season.


For someone with Joe's pedigree this seems like a really untenable situation, a big blow to his pride at the very least.  If things don't start off well next season there's potential for them to go off the rails quickly and disastrously.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 08, 2018, 07:40:32 am
You know, it's actually kind of surprising Maddon hasn't decided to bag this whole situation, considering he'd have no issues finding another job and how highly he thinks of himself. 
Totally agree.  As I said a year or so ago:  "If you don't know how good he is, just ask him.  He'll tell you."  You see that attitude with the way he is answers some questions.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 07:56:15 am
FIGJAM II.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 05:34:50 pm
Bryce Harper reportedly spotted in Chicago & is supposed to attend the Blackhawks game tonight. In addition - there’s a picture going around of Harper’s name previewed at the United Center in a recruiting process for the White Sox. Unsure if Harper’s camp is meeting w/ Cubs too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 05:40:53 pm
That's comedy gold.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 05:46:44 pm
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-considering-adding-veteran-backup-catcher-here-are-some-potential-fits-contreras-caratini-mccann-vogt?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 08, 2018, 06:35:22 pm
Bleacher Nation suggests Dee Gordon could be a creative Cubs target this offseason (based on comments from Levine):

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/08/could-dee-gordon-become-a-creative-cubs-trade-target-this-winter/

Getting creative with the Mariners to acquire one of their mid-priced middle infielders isn't a bad idea...but that mid-priced middle infielder who they should try to get is Jean Segura. We've talked some here about how Whit Merrifield could be a fit...but Segura is a similar (and more established) hitter who can play good defense at shortstop (as opposed to average defense at second base).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 06:41:04 pm
Gordon was awful last year and his whole value is built around (eroding) speed.  Blech.

Rumors are just rumors, but the names the Cubs are being connected with (apart from Merrifield and Miller) are incredibly uninspiring.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 06:47:49 pm
Im a fan of speed.

Im all for Gordon and keeping Gore.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 06:48:48 pm
Just letting you all know a lot of what Im posting is just cut and paste from Twitter.

Not actually me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 08, 2018, 07:04:37 pm
Thanks for passing those rumors along, Dusty.  It's fun. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 08, 2018, 07:07:29 pm
Gordon was awful last year and his whole value is built around (eroding) speed.  Blech.

Rumors are just rumors, but the names the Cubs are being connected with (apart from Merrifield and Miller) are incredibly uninspiring.

Yeah...to be clear, Gordon would be awful. I don't know if I made that clear in my first post. He was awful this year.

I'd say Miller is pretty uninspiring too at this point. He looks like Cleveland may have broken him with his work loads in 2016-17.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 08, 2018, 07:17:39 pm
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 08, 2018, 07:24:47 pm
Bleacher Nation was talking about either Chatwood (similar $ left, but would save the Cubs $3 million in AAV) or Heyward for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 07:32:21 pm
Yeah...to be clear, Gordon would be awful. I don't know if I made that clear in my first post. He was awful this year.

I'd say Miller is pretty uninspiring too at this point. He looks like Cleveland may have broken him with his work loads in 2016-17.

Yeah, that's possible.  But if the knee is healthy (a big if) I think there's a decent chance he returns to something close to his dominant form (which was about as good as it gets).  I'd be a lot more comfortable on a two-year deal, though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 07:34:04 pm
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?

I wouldn't make that deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 08, 2018, 07:37:40 pm
No way they’d take Heyward.

There was a lot of interest in Chatwood last year. Even though he was terrible last year, he clearly has great stuff. The Cubs should be able to find some non-contending team who is willing to take on half his contract to try to catch lightning in a bottle instead of spending similar money on Jeremy Hellickson.

Gordon is pure dead money. He’s a one tool player (at least on offense—I haven’t looked up his defensive stats). And his one tool is the one that seems to fade earliest. There’s a good chance he’s just be an expensive version of Gore at this point, which is a waste of a roster spot before September.

I’d rather take my chances that they could salvage more out of a pure dump of Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 08, 2018, 09:15:55 pm
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?

Gordon was a 3.6 fWAR guy in 2017. 200 hits, over 100 runs scored, 60 SBs. That’s a good season.

Of course—like Chatwood—was bad in 2018.

Kind of an interesting idea, actually, especially at a lower AAV for luxury tax. After all, talking bad contract for bad contract here. 

But, as a versatile bench guy, of course—-not as a regular. Depends what Cubs do, if anything, with some current guys because only room for three non-catcher bench guys. Would think might have more value than La Stella, for example, if that’s the choice.

If the same Chatwood shows up in 2019, you can’t use him in any role. I don’t know. Depends how badly want to get rid of Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 08, 2018, 09:33:54 pm
Gordon 2017 is an example of what happens when a guy that depends on high BABIP doesn’t get it. In a bad contract swap as bench guy it could be worse. I’d at least consider him for Chatwood.

The Mariners really do have some interesting relievers outside of Diaz. Nicasio and Colome from the right side and Pazos from the left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 09:37:04 pm
Informative q and a from Jesse Rogers...

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1060733892083113984?s=19
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 08, 2018, 10:02:06 pm
Gordon is precisely the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP.

That’s his game. For example:

MLB average BABIP in 2018 was .296.

Gordon career BABIP is .338.

So, yes, some bad luck is going to impact his value (.304 BABIP in 2018).

But, generally, he figures to be way, way, higher BABIP than league average.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 10:12:46 pm
His legs are going, and that's only going to get worse.  And they're really all he has.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 08, 2018, 10:19:37 pm
Jean Segura is also the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP. And he's actually good. He also has defensive value, moderate power, and a below-average-but-acceptable-walk-rate to fall back on if he slows down. Dee Gordon has none of that.

If the Cubs are going to trade with the Mariners for a player with a contract they might be willing to move, target him. Otherwise, they have nothing to offer that the Cubs can afford and/or should want.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 08, 2018, 10:22:23 pm
Cub FO seems to respond to player exit interviews.  Chili is gone.  Hickey is gone.   Wonder if what they said about Maddon is the reason for no contract extension at this time.   I think the guys love a lot about him, but something's not 100% kosher.   Seems like blasphemy to wonder about it though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 pm
If the Cubs are playing possum for Harper etc then they're doing a heck of a job because even other agents (not Boras) at the meetings don't believe they will be spending big.  Time will tell.--Jesse Rogers
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 08, 2018, 10:47:36 pm
Just because he’s fast doesn’t mean he is going to be a high BABIP hitter. He hits the ball on the ground and his average exit velocity is barely better than Billy Hamilton.

Of the top 30 BABIP leaders last year only 9 had an ISO below .150, only 3 had an ISO below or equal to .110. That was Matt Duffy, Lorenzo Cain and Mallex Smith.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 08, 2018, 10:58:02 pm
Jean Segura is also the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP. And he's actually good. He also has defensive value, moderate power, and a below-average-but-acceptable-walk-rate to fall back on if he slows down.

I’d just like to point out that Almora has a higher career BB% and higher career ISO than Segura. Segura has had 2 positive UZR/150 in 7 seasons and 4 total DRS in his career. Almora already has 10.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 08, 2018, 11:02:55 pm
Segura also has 13 WAR over the past three seasons and 171 career SB, and he plays in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball.  He's much more valuable than Almora - not even close.  Playing at 2B would help his defensive numbers, too.

Sadly, I suspect all that would price him out of the Cubs' range as a trade candidate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 08, 2018, 11:39:16 pm
Almora is a superstar. It's right around the corner (according to most of the people on BBF).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 09, 2018, 01:31:00 am
Just because he’s fast doesn’t mean he is going to be a high BABIP hitter. He hits the ball on the ground and his average exit velocity is barely better than Billy Hamilton.

Of the top 30 BABIP leaders last year only 9 had an ISO below .150, only 3 had an ISO below or equal to .110. That was Matt Duffy, Lorenzo Cain and Mallex Smith.


You are right that another very good way of having a high BABIP is to have really good iso power and hitting the ball hard.  But, it's not the only way.  There is another category of high BABIP guys who do it differently. Was referring to the latter when said this is Gordon's type of game.

Gordon is a high BABIP because he generally gets a ton of bunt and infield hits--which of course connects with speed. BR and Fangraphs have somewhat different calculations as to infield hits/bunt hits but, according to BR, 275 of Gordon's 977 career hits are infield hits/bunt hits, which is mind-boggling. Not saying that is the way to go, but it's a distinct category. 

Cain and Mallex Smith also get a lot of infield hits.  Other fast guys, like Trea Turner and Starling Marte get a lot of infield hits.  All have unusually high career BABIP.  Not saying that every speed guy is going to do that. But, there is a category of these guys.

In 2015, according to BR, Gordon had 57 infield/bunt hits.  The next highest guy had 38. Had even more in 2014. Last two seasons, he had 84 combined, according to BR. 

Not saying that Gordon is a good player for 2019.  Just saying that, for considering a trade of bad contracts, he might be a reasonable swap for Chatwood.  That is not a high bar.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 01:48:22 am
It’s a higher bar than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 07:23:42 am
Almora is a superstar. It's right around the corner (according to most of the people on BBF).

Not saying that at all, Segura’s numbers aren’t great outside of his speed.

Segura also has 13 WAR over the past three seasons and 171 career SB, and he plays in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball.  He's much more valuable than Almora - not even close.  Playing at 2B would help his defensive numbers, too.

Segura played 2016 at second base and he wasn’t good there either. 0 DRS saved and -2.4 UZR/150. His fWAR the last 5 years is 0.1, 0.1, 5.1, 3.0, 3.8.

Gordon has only had more than 10 bunt hits 3 times in his career.  Last year he was 8/30. Infield hits are usually the definition of Luke.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 09, 2018, 08:22:40 am
I’d just like to point out that Almora has a higher career BB% and higher career ISO than Segura. Segura has had 2 positive UZR/150 in 7 seasons and 4 total DRS in his career. Almora already has 10.

Not only that, but the MLB really hamstrung Segura when they took away his strongest talent - the ability to steal first base.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 09, 2018, 08:27:04 am
Almora is a superstar. It's right around the corner (according to most of the people on BBF).

I don't read every post on BBF, so I may well have missed it.  Can you give us a few posts where the poster said that Almora is going to be a superstar?  It doesn't have to cover most people on the BBF, just a few.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 09, 2018, 08:54:21 am
Yeah, that won't happen...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 09, 2018, 10:12:00 am
Almora is a superstar. It's right around the corner (according to most of the people on BBF).

Actually, I don't know anyone who has claimed that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 09, 2018, 10:46:20 am
Maybe it was in purple.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 11:15:40 am
I think I've claimed he can me a 3 WAR player with good defense and league average offense in CF.  I don't think that means he's a superstar.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 09, 2018, 11:29:08 am
It was CBJ!  Off with his head!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 09, 2018, 01:03:42 pm
Cubs open to trading 3B Kris Bryant
11:47 AM MT
Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25226392/chicago-cubs-open-trading-3b-kris-bryant
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 09, 2018, 01:14:21 pm
Im a Cub fan. Im not a fan of any particular player. If we can **** somebody for 5 studs then send KB down the road.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 09, 2018, 01:16:53 pm
Is that article the first we have had of a possible disconnect between Chili Davis and Bryant?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 09, 2018, 01:23:02 pm
This would be the worst possible time to trade bryant... his value has never been lower. He's a super two guy going in for a huge raise with shoulder injury concerns.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on November 09, 2018, 02:14:13 pm
I am sure every team is "open" to trading every player on their roster.  The right price might not be feasible but they are open to it...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 02:24:34 pm
The chances of the Cubs trading Bryant for so small it isn't even funny. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on November 09, 2018, 02:26:10 pm
I was gonna post last night that they should consider this because KB will not be cheap and I wonder if a team like San Diego would overbid for him. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 09, 2018, 02:32:06 pm
Theo says nobody is untouchable, standard management-speak.  But says it's almost inconceivable to imagine an offer that would make sense for Rizzo or Bryant.  Both statements can be true. 

Putting the vague Davis quote in a Bryant article is suggestive.  But I'm not sure a national guy like Olney has any clue who was or was not not receptive to Chili'd adjustments.  Kris might have clicked and bought in more than anybody else, who knows?   

Although it is maybe easy to imagine Bryant as one who might not have bought in easily?  Bryant, his father and Mallee have had some thought-out ideas and concepts that have driven their approach, and that have some data to support them, and Bryant is a pretty intelligent, thoughtful guy.  I can well imagine Bryant might have some firm convictions, and be hesitant to necessarily buy into whatever the new coach-of-the-year says.  That said, Bryant started off the year really well, prior to the concussion and the shoulder injury; so perhaps the healthy Bryant bought in with Chili just fine, who knows?

Think Chili's got a fair point, though.  The Cubs don't have any new hitters, they are pretty much all multi-year veterans now.  Think the scouts know all the weaknesses, and that naturally teams have a way to pitch them and defend them now that wasn't as informed early in their careers.  Seems pretty natural that if they aren't able to adjust and punish, that things won't be as good or easy for some of the guys as when the guys were rookies.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 09, 2018, 03:04:09 pm
Another option for bad contract/bad contract swap for Chatwood??

Joel Sherman:

The Blue Jays are willing to eat a portion of the $20 million Russell Martin is owed in 2019 to facilitate a trade. Martin, though, turns 36 in February and is coming off a .194 season. Nevertheless, he still is a patient hitter with some pop who is thought of as a good leader and defender

Martin’s AAV luxury hit is $16.4—about $4 more than Chatwood. His contract ends in 2019. Could figure that $4 is cost of a backup catcher anyway.

Think that Cubs went after Martin some years ago when Martin hit free agency. Of course, not the same guy now. Might be a good tutor for Contreras on framing, etc. Still has plate discipline. Just a thought.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 03:28:32 pm
I don't get the urgency to trade Chatwood for another bad contract.  I thought the whole idea was to trim the payroll?  If the money evens out just keep Chatwood and try to fix him - he has great stuff.

Some twitter buzz that the Cubs are trying to find a taker for Heyward by sweetening with prospects, but I'm highly skeptical.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 09, 2018, 03:30:44 pm
That'd be great.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 09, 2018, 03:46:31 pm
With Chatwood, I wonder what his psyche is, his mental toughness? 

We know he's got good stuff.  And we know the Cubs are pretty comfortable going with wild, inconsistent relievers.  And the Cubs think they've got awesome player development, even if that may be self-delusion when it comes to pitchers. 

Why they should maybe keep him:  His stuff is plenty good.  He might thrive as a short reliever, getting used several times a week.  A few tweaks to his delivery, some confidence, and you might have a very, very effective relief arm, capable of going >1 inning.  And *IF* he did get squared away, you might have a very desirable rotation-replacement, if/when injury necessitates.  Also think that obviously nobody is going to claim him and pay him.  So I think you've got a fair chance to send him to Iowa and let him regain his confidence, without needing to waste a roster-spot at the beginning.  (That chance depends on him not refusing to go, which of course he might.  That's partly where his mind-set and psyche and sense of Cub loyalty and trust, or lack thereof, factors.)

Why they shouldn't:  Not many Steve Blass recovery guys.  May think you've "fixed" it, but the second a pitch or two goes wild, that brain might be going "here we go again", and rebuilt confidence can vanish in a second.  So I think it may be much harder to get back to the bad-control Rockies version this second time than it was getting to anti-awful control originally.  He didn't have all these crazy bad memories originally.  Second, he may not have any Cub loyalty and trust.  They had all kinds of ideas to improve him when they got him; major fail.  And they had ideas to help him fix, also failed.  Plus obviously they lost trust in him; so it wouldn't be surprising if he'd see this as the worst place for him to be, and that he'd reject an Iowa assignment. 

Not sure what I think.  I kinda feel like trading him will just lock in a loser contract, and that you aren't really going to offset any signfiicant salary.  And that it might almost be best to give him another shot; that his chance of becoming useful, slim as that chance is, might almost be less slim than the bad-contract you'd need to take on in order to offload him?  If you release him in the spring and eat the contract, not sure that's really going to be any worse than taking on some bad contract and bad player instead. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 03:55:39 pm
George Ofman

Verified account
 
@georgeofman
 2h2 hours ago
More
Just a better understanding regarding Bryant: He’s available because the Cubs believe he eventually won’t re-sign with them. Told there is an effort to deal him. Doesn’t mean it will happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 09, 2018, 04:07:04 pm
If the Cubs trade Kris Bryant, I believe it will be to Colorado for Nolan Arenado plus.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 09, 2018, 04:20:02 pm
If the Cubs trade Kris Bryant, I believe it will be to Colorado for Nolan Arenado plus.

Interesting idea.

Maybe Arenado accepts the Cubs offer that Bryant declined—-and you have a trade with extension. Rockies get a three-year controlled guy (Bryant) for a one-year controlled guy (Arenado). Arenado used to be a Boras guy but switched to another agent, by the way.

Of course, alternatively, instead of a trade now, Cubs just keep Bryant, sign Arenado a year from now for that Bryant-declined money, and then trade two years of Bryant for something else good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 04:45:47 pm
Arenado in 2018
Home .347/.424/.681 wRC+ 161 ISO .333
Away .248/.325/.447 wRC+ 104 ISO .199

Career
Home .320/.374/.609 wRC+ 129 ISO .290
Away .263/.318/.469 wRC+ 108  ISO .206

Bryant Career
Home .279/.387/.541 wRC+ 148  ISO .262
Away .290/.384/.490  wRC+ 133 ISO .200

I'd have real reservations about Arenado outside of Coors.  I don't think he'd be as bad as his splits, but I don't think he would be anywhere close to an MVP candidate without Coors.  Trading Bryant is dumb.  Theo isn't dumb.  If he won't sign an extension or as a free agent you let him walk when his control is up.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 09, 2018, 04:49:22 pm
Ive been wrong as much or more than anyone here but Ive said before I thought Bryant would end up back in California.

If he indeed dont want to be here the earlier you trade him the more you get for him.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 04:52:44 pm
I don’t think the Cubs will trade Bryant. But contrary to what was noted earlier, if they actually wanted to I think this might be the only time they could. If he was coming off a big season that would be an impossible sell to the fanbase.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 04:53:31 pm
The Cubs should just go into a rebuild then.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 05:35:36 pm
If a team with the Cubs’ resources goes into salary dump mode, fires its coaches two years running and sends its manager into the season with his head in a guillotine, lots of wild gossip is inevitable.  Most of these rumors are silly but they’ve brought it on themselves.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 09, 2018, 05:40:16 pm
If a team with the Cubs’ resources goes into salary dump mode, fires its coaches two years running and sends its manager into the season with his head in a guillotine, lots of wild gossip is inevitable.  Most of these rumors are silly but they’ve brought it on themselves.

"Salary dump mode."  Huh?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 09, 2018, 05:42:38 pm
Theo knows the window is OPEN right now (and will be through 2021)!

Assuming decent health, Cubs have a very solid starting rotation for 2019, at the least.

Theo is ALL IN on the next Cub Championship - sooner, rather than later! 

He's driving URGENCY throughout the organization...hope that works as well as most everything else he's done in his MLB career!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 05:43:16 pm
"Salary dump mode."  Huh?

Either that or Academy Award mode, since they seem to have convinced every major agent that’s what’s going on. Could be an all-time fakeout, I suppose.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 09, 2018, 05:56:36 pm
Either that or Academy Award mode, since they seem to have convinced every major agent that’s what’s going on. Could be an all-time fakeout, I suppose.

Please provide examples of reports of "salary dump mode" by the Cubs.  That's not nearly the same thing as limiting how much their budget will increase.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 06:18:32 pm
If the Cubs are dumping dollars shouldn’t the payroll be going down not up?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 09, 2018, 06:32:36 pm
I think self-limiting to no more than $40 over the luxury tax threshold is perfectly reasonable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 09, 2018, 08:28:22 pm
Theo isn't dumb.  If he won't sign an extension or as a free agent you let him walk when his control is up.

I hope Theo isn't that dumb.  The worst thing you can do is let a superstar (lets assume he becomes healthy) walk away as a free agent.

Any and all of them should be signed to an extension or traded in the off season before free agency.  At the very least, traded at the last year deadline.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 08:42:52 pm
And if they are in the hunt for the World Series you would still tear the team down?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 08:49:17 pm
There may come a point when, if you strongly believe a guy like Bryant won't re-sign, you look to deal him.  And it can be done without tearing down the team - if he rebounds to '17 form he'd have huge value, even with only a year left on his deal.  The issue is we're nowhere near that time yet, so he's not going anywhere.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 09, 2018, 09:15:43 pm
A healthy Bryant is a 6-7 WAR player. No team is going to give up a 6-7 WAR player with more control for him and the team will be less likely to win trading him away. The Nationals without Harper are a lot farther from a WS win than with him and no prospects would change that.

The only move that could be close would be trading Garciparra, but he was never elite after the trade again. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 09, 2018, 09:18:09 pm
Less likely, possibly.  But that's not synonymous with "tearing down".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 10, 2018, 07:50:12 am
I was going through NSBB site and in the rumors thread Brad Weick was mentioned as somebody to possibly target. He’s a 6-9 lefty reliever with a 92 mph fastball and a plus curve. The Padres seem like a trade target to ship Russell of to and Weick+ some other pitching prospects would seem possible. The Padres will have a 40 man issues and som body like Chatwood might intrest them too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 10, 2018, 07:59:43 am
Wieck.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 10, 2018, 08:09:24 am
Theo says to a reporter: Who know where I'll be in two years?  I might get cancer and die.  I might retire altogether.

Next day the media reports: Epstein may have cancer which could force retirement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 10, 2018, 08:52:39 am
And if they are in the hunt for the World Series you would still tear the team down?

If they don't let their assets walk away without getting good value in return, they will be in the hunt for the World Series every year.  A good example was Arrieta.  I was in favor if trading him the year before he became a free agent.  If they had traded him in the winter after the World Series, they could have gotten a haul that would be adding both offense and pitching to the upcoming years team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jimmer on November 10, 2018, 09:28:17 am
Is it possible the lack of a Joe Maddon extension is that Theo recognizes the window could close in 2019 if a lot of things go wrong and the cost to keep the core exceeds the value they would get in return? And so they do a mini rebuild in the offseason and think Joe is not the manager (or would want to at his age) for a rebuild.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 10, 2018, 09:33:31 am
Theo says to the media: Nobody’s untouchable, even Bryant.
Media says: Bryant on the block!
Cub fans say: Holy Sh!t!
Cardinal front office says: Let’s offer Wainwright and Cecil.  They fell for it once before.
Hoyer says: Wish I’d gotten that Frisco job.
This board says: We’re getting Arenado!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 10, 2018, 10:17:24 am
First, a Reb return, and now a Jimmer sighting!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 10, 2018, 10:48:10 am
First, a Reb return, and now a Jimmer sighting!

I am sure that is THE Jimmer's grandson.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 10, 2018, 11:10:31 am
Is it possible the lack of a Joe Maddon extension is that Theo recognizes the window could close in 2019 if a lot of things go wrong and the cost to keep the core exceeds the value they would get in return? And so they do a mini rebuild in the offseason and think Joe is not the manager (or would want to at his age) for a rebuild.

[/quote
If they don't let their assets walk away without getting good value in return, they will be in the hunt for the World Series every year.  A good example was Arrieta.  I was in favor if trading him the year before he became a free agent.  If they had traded him in the winter after the World Series, they could have gotten a haul that would be adding both offense and pitching to the upcoming years team.

That would have created another hole in the rotation that the Cubs would have had to fill that off season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 10, 2018, 11:28:46 am
I would rather fill that hole with a middle of the road pitcher for one year, and have strong new assets coming up in following years.  A good front office looks 3 to 5 years down the road, as well as the upcoming season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 10, 2018, 11:59:18 am
How often do teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers make trades like that? Pretty much never.

Big market, World Series contending teams don't need to weaken this year's team to get players who might help in 3-5 years when the team is not guaranteed to be a contender. They try to win the World Series this year. Future seasons are secondary. Tampa's and Oakland's front offices may need to run that way, but the Cubs should not be looking to marginally improve their farm system by taking a few wins away from the current team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on November 10, 2018, 03:34:23 pm
but the Cubs should not be looking to marginally improve their farm system by taking a few wins away from the current team.


You must not think that much of Bryant's value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 10, 2018, 03:35:50 pm
I'm not talking about Bryant. That whole rumor was silly.

I was referring more to the suggestion that they should've traded Arrieta a year before free agency.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 10, 2018, 04:25:35 pm
The rumor of Harper’s value at the deadline was JB Bustakus, the Astros #15 prospect and a lottery ticket. Bryant might return a little more, but that is what you are looking to get in a Bryant trade at a deadline.

Trade him before that and you’d get more, but it turns the Cubs into what they were this year with an injured Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on November 10, 2018, 04:55:00 pm
The rumor of Harper’s value at the deadline was JB Bustakus, the Astros #15 prospect and a lottery ticket. Bryant might return a little more, but that is what you are looking to get in a Bryant trade at a deadline.

Why only a little more? Harper would've been a three-month rental.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 10, 2018, 05:06:45 pm
I mentioned at the deadline.

Do people really think that a team like the Blue Jays is going to trade Vald Jr for him?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 10, 2018, 05:17:52 pm
At the deadline, the Cubs will still control Bryant for 2 1/2 more years. He'd be much, much more valuable than Harper.

The control the Cubs have left is the biggest reason the rumors were ridiculous from the start, though. The idea that the Cubs were shopping Bryant primarily because they were worried he wouldn't sign an extension in three years (at least I think that was the reasoning Olney or someone else presented) is ludicrous.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 10, 2018, 05:40:34 pm
I meant trading him when he has no control left at the deadline.

If you trade him now you aren’t getting a similar talent with more control. You keep Bryant and let him walk if he’s a free agent, he gives you the best chance to win.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 12, 2018, 10:54:56 am
Interesting perspective about the luxury tax:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/12/how-much-would-the-luxury-tax-actually-cost-the-cubs-at-a-260m-payroll/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 12, 2018, 12:17:41 pm
Interesting indeed.  Does he have a correct understanding of the facts? 
1.  He says the tax thresholds are $206, $226, and $246, with tax rates of 20%, 32%, and 42.5%. 
2.  Suppose you pay $256, which would be $10 over the top threshold but $50 over the bottom threshold.  Is his understanding that you'd pay 42.5% only on $10, 32% on $20, and 20% on $20?  Or would you actually get docked for 42.5% on all of the $50 that's above the original threshold? 

I assume he's right, just wanted to make sure it doesn't have sharper prohibitions on clearing the 2nd and 3rd thresholds. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 12, 2018, 12:20:02 pm
This requires a sharper finance man than I.  Jeff?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 12, 2018, 12:39:59 pm
The author's interpretation is correct.

Navigate to page 107.

http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on November 12, 2018, 12:48:49 pm
Fangraphs projects the Cubs at 88 wins next year before free agency and other moves. Interestingly enough, they project the Brewers to win only 80. I know these numbers are preliminary and are often lower than reality, but their stats do seem to show that the Brewers played well beyond their talent last year. We'll see if Yelich, Cain, Shaw, Santana, Aguilar and the rest can do it again.  https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 12, 2018, 01:41:53 pm
Santana did not do much of anything for them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 12, 2018, 01:51:16 pm
Yelich in the second half
.367/.449/.770 for a 1.219 OPS.

In the first half he was .292/.364/.459 .823 OPS.  For his career he is .297/.375/.463.  Steamer is projecting .296/.380/.513.  That seems like a pretty reasonable projection for him moving from Marlins park to Miller.  I doubt Yelich is gonna keep preforming like steroid era Bonds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 12, 2018, 10:15:55 pm
Mooney brings a dose of reality to the notion that Bryant could be traded and provides some spicy quotes from Theo.

https://theathletic.com/650125/2018/11/12/what-a-kris-bryant-trade-rumor-reveals-about-theo-epsteins-state-of-mind/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 12, 2018, 10:56:31 pm
Theo be wiggin' out.

One seriously gets the sense that Theo is feeling trapped at the moment - he has an idea in his head of what needs to happen but doesn't think he'll have the freedom to execute it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 12, 2018, 11:20:37 pm
I don't get the sense from the article that Theo feels trapped...more that:

Cubs (and Theo) have a 3-year window to get the job done again.

And it's GOTTA get done (one way or another)!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 13, 2018, 09:51:24 am
Interesting perspective about the luxury tax:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/12/how-much-would-the-luxury-tax-actually-cost-the-cubs-at-a-260m-payroll/


The author seems to be dismissive of some of the most damaging effects of going over the spending limit.  Much of that is shown by the things that he leaves out of his article.

First, my understanding is that the penalties get stronger for each successive year that a team remains over the threshold.  If they sign Harper, for instance. for 30 million per year, it will NOT be for a one year contract, but for a large number of years.  And the salary cap problems will get worse rather than better for several years into the future.  The core of the team will go through more arbitrations, and will get more expensive, not less so.  The chances are overwhelming that their total salary will get higher, not lower, as the next few years progress, and the penalties get stronger and stronger.  I have not seen the details of the progressive penalties, but if he were going to allow us to evaluate the situation, he should have spelled out what happens in future years.

Second, it has been reported that an additional penalty for going and staying over the threshold is a severe reduction in money allowed to be spend in the International Free Agent market.  Some have indicated that this is a greater penalty than the reduction of draft choice slots.  It is difficult to assess the situation since he chose to omit this side of the argument.

From what I have seen in various reports, the actual money involved is not the primary issue.  It is the other penalties that he seems to dismiss as unimportant, but are probably extremely important to all teams.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 13, 2018, 12:10:26 pm
Still waiting for someone to dispel the information in the piece, that the Cubs have communicated to other teams they are prepared to listen to offers for Bryant -- and that's a shift from previous offseasons, not some general GM operating philosophy.-philosophy.--Olney
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 01:16:03 pm
So Jessie Rogers went on Kap's show to defend Buster.

Kap asked Jessie what is the chance to Bryant gets traded before 2019?  Jessie's reply was 1/100.  The highest Jessie went to was 30% before he comes a free agent.  Click bait.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 13, 2018, 01:19:48 pm
1 in 100?  Wow.  He's out the door.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 13, 2018, 01:35:40 pm
Surprising that Olney is digging in his heels on this.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 02:01:44 pm
Yeah, it’s certainly overblown in the sense of anything happening with Bryant.

But, Buster’s report is not really inconsistent with 1/100 actual likelihood.

He’s reporting that Cubs are doing something different than before re. Bryant in talking to other clubs—perhaps bringing his name up when Cubs never did that ever before.

Is that newsworthy?

Yes, it is—so long as the report is from an actual known person (Buster) who is credible (yes) and has credible sources (yes).

Cubs are doing something different re. Bryant. Okay, fine.

As happens frequently, other people in the media and elsewhere put a gloss on the original report and maybe exaggerate or overstate it. Maybe the “doing something different” is so miniscule a change it’s not worth talking about. But, it’s Kris Bryant and it’s Hot Stove season.

Buster’s report, for me, is way, way, way more worthy of discussion that a report by a non-professional who knows somebody who knows somebody else and likely has zero expertise in accurately repeating what the somebody else claims they know or assessing the somebody’s credibility—-which is so worthless to hear I’d rather not hear it in the first place.

Buster is a pro, well-sourced, and knows how to accurately set forth what his credible source(s) said. So, it’s worth knowing. Seems to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 03:07:37 pm
If Buster would have said the Cubs are more open to listening on Bryant than they were before, but still extremely unlikely to trade him I could see that point.  The headline and the story sure left the impression that the Cubs were considering trading him than they actually are.  At 1/100 odds, it seems like a nonstory.  The headline was the real problem and even Rogers admitted that it was a fair criticism.

Plus Buster sources are from other FO people outside of the Cubs.  So it is still conjecture on their part about how open the Cubs are to trading Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 04:15:31 pm
Let’s remember: real journalists report facts.

The ultimate outcome—flowing from those facts—is often conjecture. It’s something different, that is, the likelihood of Y happening because of the fact of X.

Buster is reporting the X fact that Cubs are willing to discuss Bryant with other clubs in a way different than ever before. As he says, nobody has yet refuted that factual assertion.

Buster probably doesn’t know from his sources, as a factual matter, the likelihood of the Y outcome. Yes, he could have said in the story “extremely unlikely” or “very unlikely” or whatever, but he probably doesn’t have the facts here on that point one way or the other. As you say, his sources don’t know that likelihood of Y and so there’s nothing to report on that issue as a factual matter.

In some other trade stories generally, you might see the likely outcome reported.  Why? Because there are facts to draw that conclusion. Club A is close to trading Player B. But, here, no facts on that, so the Buster story is limited to the fact Cubs are willing to discuss in a way different than before. That’s the story.

As to the headline, “willing to discuss” from the story would have been better than “open to”—-it’s pretty close but not identical. Former is a bit softer. Don’t know how ESPN works, but in newspaper business the story writer doesn’t write the headline.... but the story is the story.

Bottom line is that the specific fact that Buster reported is, I think, newsworthy. If we want to know the degree of likelihood of a partcular outcome, we’ll have to wait to see if more facts emerge....or not.

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 04:49:29 pm
Let’s remember: real journalists report facts.

The ultimate outcome—flowing from those facts—is often conjecture. It’s something different, that is, the likelihood of Y happening because of the fact of X.

Buster is reporting the X fact that Cubs are willing to discuss Bryant with other clubs in a way different than ever before. As he says, nobody has yet refuted that factual assertion.

Buster probably doesn’t know from his sources, as a factual matter, the likelihood of the Y outcome.

Buster source for story is a front office person(s) from other teams.  It is their perception of the willingness to deal Bryant that is the basis for the story.  Since his source isn't in the Cubs front office he can't guess at an outcome.  That fact that Rogers contributed the only Cubs quotes to the story and puts of the odds of trade happening at 1/100, makes it pretty much a non-story.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on November 13, 2018, 05:01:54 pm
We need chgojhawk to chime in and give us the real dope...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 13, 2018, 05:08:29 pm
...I'm not believing any of this until Mrs. Bryant's hairdresser's boyfriend's bartender fills us in.   Or is that chgojhawk?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 13, 2018, 05:18:15 pm
The Cubs would like Bryant to make a long term commitment to the Cubs at what is almost surely less money than he will make by waiting a few more years.  If he (reasonably) doesn't want to do so, the Cubs will seriously consider trading him down the road.  The time hasn't come yet, but that time is not that far away (perhaps as soon as after next season).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 05:38:35 pm
Buster source for story is a front office person(s) from other teams.  It is their perception of the willingness to deal Bryant that is the basis for the story.  Since his source isn't in the Cubs front office he can't guess at an outcome.  That fact that Rogers contributed the only Cubs quotes to the story and puts of the odds of trade happening at 1/100, makes it pretty much a non-story.

The basis of the story is what the Cubs are saying to other clubs. Don't think Buster is going to write that story just on somebody's conjecture. Whats somebody SAID is a fact.  CBJ said this or said that.  Words were said.  One can report something based on what somebody said, obviously. 

Those words--presumably told to Buster--maybe the exact words or maybe a characterization of what was said---that's the basis of Buster's report.  They are telling clubs they are willing to discuss. That's a new fact.  If Buster's story is based on nothing the Cubs actually said to anybody, I would be very disappointed in his reporting.  Doubt that is true.

Cubs did not address Buster's story in any specific way which, of course, nobody would expect them to do. 

I think the reaction to the story is overblown to the extent folks are reading more into it than was actually reported.  But, even if its 1/100, can still speculate about a trade return.  We've done that here before on less than 1/100.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 13, 2018, 05:43:19 pm
Fine, then let’s discuss some prospective trade parameters...anyone have any proposals?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 05:44:38 pm
The Cubs would like Bryant to make a long term commitment to the Cubs at what is almost surely less money than he will make by waiting a few more years.  If he (reasonably) doesn't want to do so, the Cubs will seriously consider trading him down the road.  The time hasn't come yet, but that time is not that far away (perhaps as soon as after next season).

Jeff speculated about Arenado.  One can debate the merits of that, but that would be the kind of trade if it happened this off-season---for the reasons discussed here previously.  Can't imagine they would trade Bryant for prospects.  There is some logic there based on Arenado's pending free agency and perhaps willingness to accept what Bryant turned down.

Speculation, not fact.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 13, 2018, 05:44:50 pm
The basis of the story is what the Cubs are saying to other clubs. Don't think Buster is going to write that story just on somebody's conjecture. Whats somebody SAID is a fact.  CBJ said this or said that.  Words were said.  One can report something based on what somebody said, obviously. 

Those words--presumably told to Buster--maybe the exact words or maybe a characterization of what was said---that's the basis of Buster's report.  They are telling clubs they are willing to discuss. That's a new fact.  If Buster's story is based on nothing the Cubs actually said to anybody, I would be very disappointed in his reporting.  Doubt that is true.

Cubs did not address Buster's story in any specific way which, of course, nobody would expect them to do. 

I think the reaction to the story is overblown to the extent folks are reading more into it than was actually reported.  But, even if its 1/100, can still speculate about a trade return.  We've done that here before on less than 1/100.

You use a lot of words.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 05:55:50 pm
You use a lot of words.

That’s a fact.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 13, 2018, 06:00:37 pm
You could have said:  "True".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on November 13, 2018, 06:01:49 pm
Appreciate the confidence!  I owe a phone call anyhow so I will see what I can find out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 13, 2018, 06:10:07 pm
You could have said:  "True".
I don't disagree with that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 06:27:29 pm
Words can have interruptions which can result in widely different meanings to people.

I highly doubt Buster was getting a blow by blow account of trade discussions. Listen to Jeff Passan on the Effectivley Wild podcast discussing trade rumors.  A lot of trade talk is occurring over text messages and the reporters are getting rumors from people on the fringes of trade talk. You aren’t getting Theo on the phone. I doubt Buster’s sources are any better than than Passan’s.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 13, 2018, 06:29:37 pm
Buster is reporting the X fact that Cubs are willing to discuss Bryant with other clubs in a way different than ever before. As he says, nobody has yet refuted that factual assertion.

Buster probably doesn’t know from his sources, as a factual matter, the likelihood of the Y outcome. Yes, he could have said in the story “extremely unlikely” or “very unlikely” or whatever, but he probably doesn’t have the facts here on that point one way or the other. As you say, his sources don’t know that likelihood of Y and so there’s nothing to report on that issue as a factual matter.

In some other trade stories generally, you might see the likely outcome reported.  Why? Because there are facts to draw that conclusion. Club A is close to trading Player B. But, here, no facts on that, so the Buster story is limited to the fact Cubs are willing to discuss in a way different than before. That’s the story.

As to the headline, “willing to discuss” from the story would have been better than “open to”—-it’s pretty close but not identical. Former is a bit softer. Don’t know how ESPN works, but in newspaper business the story writer doesn’t write the headline.... but the story is the story.

Bottom line is that the specific fact that Buster reported is, I think, newsworthy. If we want to know the degree of likelihood of a partcular outcome, we’ll have to wait to see if more facts emerge....or not.

My understanding is that the Olney quote was "the Cubs have indicated to other teams they are willing to discuss trade proposals for almost all of the players on their roster, including Bryant."  That statement does not say anything about the Cubs' position on Bryant having changed.  Did he say something else?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 07:45:50 pm
Twitter.

Still waiting for someone to dispel the information in the piece, that the Cubs have communicated to other teams they are prepared to listen to offers for Bryant -- and that's a shift from previous offseasons, not some general GM operating philosophy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 07:49:58 pm
Words can have interruptions which can result in widely different meanings to people.

I highly doubt Buster was getting a blow by blow account of trade discussions. Listen to Jeff Passan on the Effectivley Wild podcast discussing trade rumors.  A lot of trade talk is occurring over text messages and the reporters are getting rumors from people on the fringes of trade talk. You aren’t getting Theo on the phone. I doubt Buster’s sources are any better than than Passan’s.

What did Passan report about Bryant that’s different than what Buster said?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 13, 2018, 08:13:39 pm
Quote
Words can have interruptions which can result in widely different meanings to people.

You meant interpretations, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 08:27:13 pm
You meant interpretations, right?

Auto correct on the phone, but yes.

What did Passan report about Bryant that’s different than what Buster said?

Passan was talking about the process of breaking rumors and trades, no one is getting this from the GM level.  Sherman, Passan and even Nightengale have been silent on Bryant/trades.  Heyman agreeing with Mooney's article is the only national guy talking about it.  Buster/Rogers are on an island by themselves.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 08:50:11 pm
Auto correct on the phone, but yes.

Passan was talking about the process of breaking rumors and trades, no one is getting this from the GM level.

So, Passan is not doing any reporting so far about Bryant. Buster IS doing reporting about Bryant. Therefore, it follows that there is no factual conflict about “interpreting” anything regarding Bryant, between Buster and Passan.

No clue about Buster’s actual sources but he’s a professional with a lot of good sources and many years of credibility regardng how to report a story. I think he knows how to report what somebody says to him and whether that source is in a position to know. That’s what journalists do. If it was a non-professional who knows a guy who knows a guy, then I’m with you.

You don’t have to have a source at the very top of the food chain to have an accurate, credible story. Not the way that journalism works when the top guy isn’t talking.

I get the notion that there’s been too much hoopla about this story given the unlikelihood of a trade. But, I don’t get the notion that there’s something inaccurate or not credible about Buster’s story.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 13, 2018, 08:57:59 pm
Fun hypothetical.

Would you trade Bryant, Quintana/Montgomery (whichever one Colorado wanted), and maybe a small "plus" for Arenado, Dahl, and Gray?

Would your answer change depending upon whether Arenado signed a "Cubs friendly" extension?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 13, 2018, 09:14:42 pm
Twitter.

Still waiting for someone to dispel the information in the piece, that the Cubs have communicated to other teams they are prepared to listen to offers for Bryant -- and that's a shift from previous offseasons, not some general GM operating philosophy.

Reb - I'm not trying to be difficult here, but it isn't clear to me that this is any change from the past. "Communicated to other teams" isn't so far as I know how Olney characterized this "news."  If other teams have asked whether the Cubs would be willing to discuss Bryant, and Theo failed to say "no," then Olney's specific statement that"the Cubs have indicated to other teams they are willing to discuss trade proposals for almost all of the players on their roster, including Bryant" 'would both be accurate, and not necessarily represent a change from the past.

Did Olney specifically claim that there was a change in position?  Do we know that Theo has refused to even listen to interest in Bryant in the past.  It's a serious question, as I have no way of knowing one way or the other.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 09:23:46 pm
Reb - I'm not trying to be difficult here, but it isn't clear to me that this is any change from the past. Did Olney specifically claim this?  Do we know that Theo has refused to even listen to interest in Bryant in the past.  It's a serious question, as I have no way of knowing one way or the other.

Buster says a “shift from previous offseasons.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 13, 2018, 09:24:51 pm
Buster says a “shift from previous offseasons.”

OK. Thanks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 13, 2018, 09:24:55 pm
I'd do it if Arenado signed an extension.

I read a story a week or so ago that said the Cubs coveted Arenado and favored waiting on him over Harper or Machado.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 09:56:49 pm
Ron- One more on Twitter/Facebook:

Bruce Levine (to Buster):

The question is who would trade real market value for a player who is coming off a shoulder injury and missed 70 games.

Buster (to Levine):

Guess you'll never know unless you encourage other teams to make offers, if interested. Which is what they've done.

As an aside, the notion that silence by some other national reporters about Buster's report is somehow a refutation of Buster's report is misplaced. Lot of reasons why that might happen:   they have nothing to add or subtract from Buster's report; or Buster has different sources or maybe they don't think it's worth reporting about in the first place, or other reasons.  And Mooney doesn't really contradict anything in Buster's story factually, as Buster never said Bryant will or won't be traded. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 09:58:43 pm
So, Passan is not doing any reporting so far about Bryant. Buster IS doing reporting about Bryant. Therefore, it follows that there is no factual conflict about “interpreting” anything regarding Bryant, between Buster and Passan.

No clue about Buster’s actual sources but he’s a professional with a lot of good sources and many years of credibility regardng how to report a story. I think he knows how to report what somebody says to him and whether that source is in a position to know. That’s what journalists do. If it was a non-professional who knows a guy who knows a guy, then I’m with you.

You don’t have to have a source at the very top of the food chain to have an accurate, credible story. Not the way that journalism works when the top guy isn’t talking.

I get the notion that there’s been too much hoopla about this story given the unlikelihood of a trade. But, I don’t get the notion that there’s something inaccurate or not credible about Buster’s story.



IF the Cubs were actively listening on Bryant it would be a much bigger story.  Passan, Heyman, Nightengale would all be writing and tweeting about it.  The local Cub reporters would be going nuts. 

The non-professional guy with an acutal source might have better info.  Reporters aren't getting a blow by blow account of trade talks.  They are getting bits and pieces and they are getting it from people down the food chain. 

To tag onto a later post it would be more accurate to say another team(s) believe the Cubs have a change in their approach to talks about Bryant.  As no Cub source has deviated from we have no untouchables.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 13, 2018, 10:03:11 pm
Just a thought: maybe this stuff got out there because the Cubs wanted Bryant to hear it.

Olney never struck me as the sort of reporter who pulled stuff out of thin air just to get a headline.  He’s always been fairly conservative when it comes to rumors, seems to me.  He’s wrong a lot because they all are, but he’s better connected than most.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 10:18:36 pm
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
 11h11 hours ago
More
It's all part of the business and the talks that go on between teams. There is nuance to the conversations between execs. It doesn't mean they're trading him; it doesn't mean they're intent on trading him. But they're making an assessment of what's possible.
@Buster_ESPN
 11h11 hours ago
More
Replying to @pnutfinger
1. There aren't a lot of ways they feel like they can get younger/better for 2019. One of those might be a Bryant deal; they'll never know unless they gather info/hear offers.
2. Bryant/CHC haven't reached a long-term deal. if they had, they wouldn't talk KB trade at all.

Buster Olney

Verified account
 
@Buster_ESPN
 11h11 hours ago
More
Replying to @pnutfinger
1. You have no idea if they might get better until you see what's possible. What if the Padres offered them a great, overpay package of young players?
2. You just provided context for convos -- if the Cubs believe, as you do, that he'll be a FA, then yes, they'll listen.

Pavel Dovsky

 
@Pavdov10
 11h11 hours ago
More
Or the Rays with Archer, White Sox with Sale, Dbacks now with Goldschmidt. Yawn.
Buster Olney

Verified account
 
@Buster_ESPN
Following Following @Buster_ESPN
More
Replying to @Pavdov10 @pnutfinger
Exactly.

So let's unpack Buster on twitter.

He's implying the Cubs are actively shopping Bryant.  If this was happening this would be a much bigger story with National/Local guys being all over it.

The Padres offer Tatis, Gore etc..  Make it a real overpay.  It still makes the 2019 Cubs, even if they sign Machado/Harper to replace him worse.  Even with an injury plagued 2018.  Here is the fWAR leaders ahead of Bryant from 2015-18.  Bryant has 23.1 fWAR.  Trout 35.6, Betts 28.7, Altuve 23.7.
The Rays/White Sox/Dbacks aren't in the group of teams competing for a World Series.  If the Cubs trade Bryant they might as well just rebuild.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 10:20:32 pm
....To tag onto a later post it would be more accurate to say another team(s) believe the Cubs have a change in their approach to talks about Bryant.  As no Cub source has deviated from we have no untouchables.

You keep saying that it's only some kind of subjective "belief" by the source...but that is highly unlikely given Buster's professionalism.  A good journalist is going to press for details to his source(s):  what did they say to you, specifically.  Tell me the words.  who said it.  Directly or what format?

If somebody is only giving some kind of "belief" divorced from facts, rather than relaying what Cubs are actually saying, Buster is not going to find that worthy of a story, I'm confident.   

Buster is saying Cubs are encouraging clubs to make an offer, if the club wants to.  They've never done that before, he says, which strikes me as very likely true.  Would they do that a year ago?  Can't imagine.

As to Cubs "actively listening"---Buster is not saying they have anything to listen to, yet.  Says encouraging to make an offer if clubs interested.  Maybe (probably), nothing heats up for local guys to report about.  It's the difference between soliciting an offer and actually having an offer to actively consider.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 13, 2018, 10:21:22 pm
Just a thought: maybe this stuff got out there because the Cubs wanted Bryant to hear it.

Good point.  Guy totally trusts his agent to do whatever agent deems best.  But maybe guy really likes it here, and doesn't actually want to go.  Perhaps some media that if you want to stay, you may want to communicate that to your agent, and have a voice in where your career and contract goes?

Some other thoughts:
1.  Is it possible that Theo who wants all the passion and urgency and wants guys trying harder, thinks Bryant is too quiet and calm?  Not quite the urgency and fire that Theo ideally prefers in the clubhouse?  Too much nice, not enough fire?
2.  Is it possible that Theo thinks, as Chili expressed re some Cub hitters, that pitchers have a method against Bryant, and that Bryant may never be able to hit HR's like the 39 he hit in 2016? 
3.  Is it possible that Theo is concerned that Kris will now need to stick with the two-handed follow-through to stay healthy; and that if so that he may not have MVP 39-HR-power again? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 10:29:00 pm
From Mooney
"To be clear, sources said the Cubs aren’t shopping Bryant or planning to deal him as the first move that completely reimagines this team. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein already issued denials to the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times, dismissing last week’s ESPN report and signaling the Cubs will continue building around Bryant."

"Tribune baseball columnist Paul Sullivan pressed Epstein with another follow-up question: But do you want some players to maybe think “I better get my **** together” this offseason?

No, I don’t believe in sending messages through the media,” Epstein said. “Or your exact quote was ‘I better get my **** together’ or something. I don’t believe in that. I just believe in communicating — not in the media — directly with players about where we think they should be at in their careers. And validate the things we’re doing really well and identify things they need to do better and try to work with them to make sure that happens."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 13, 2018, 10:31:10 pm
Good point.  Guy totally trusts his agent to do whatever agent deems best.  But maybe guy really likes it here, and doesn't actually want to go.  Perhaps some media that if you want to stay, you may want to communicate that to your agent, and have a voice in where your career and contract goes?

Some other thoughts:
1.  Is it possible that Theo who wants all the passion and urgency and wants guys trying harder, thinks Bryant is too quiet and calm?  Not quite the urgency and fire that Theo ideally prefers in the clubhouse?  Too much nice, not enough fire?
2.  Is it possible that Theo thinks, as Chili expressed re some Cub hitters, that pitchers have a method against Bryant, and that Bryant may never be able to hit HR's like the 39 he hit in 2016? 
3.  Is it possible that Theo is concerned that Kris will now need to stick with the two-handed follow-through to stay healthy; and that if so that he may not have MVP 39-HR-power again? 

1. Yes/yes/yes
2. Probably not
3. Yes

IMHO...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 13, 2018, 10:33:07 pm
From Mooney
"To be clear, sources said the Cubs aren’t shopping Bryant or planning to deal him as the first move that completely reimagines this team. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein already issued denials to the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times, dismissing last week’s ESPN report and signaling the Cubs will continue building around Bryant."

"Tribune baseball columnist Paul Sullivan pressed Epstein with another follow-up question: But do you want some players to maybe think “I better get my **** together” this offseason?

No, I don’t believe in sending messages through the media,” Epstein said. “Or your exact quote was ‘I better get my **** together’ or something. I don’t believe in that. I just believe in communicating — not in the media — directly with players about where we think they should be at in their careers. And validate the things we’re doing really well and identify things they need to do better and try to work with them to make sure that happens."

Because of course if Theo were sending a message through the media he’d admit it...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 10:33:31 pm
Buster isn't saying or implying "actively shopping" Bryant. 

If he was saying that, he wouldn't have said:  "it doesn't mean they're intent on trading him." 

He is saying Cubs are encouraging clubs to make an offer, if the other clubs see fit to do that.  Then, if they get an offer(s), they'll evaluate the offer and have discussions about it.  To me, "actively shopping" means the club wants to move the guy and will do so if get near 100 cents on the dollar.

In previous years, they have not encouraged anybody to make an offer.  That's the difference.

When you say "actively shopping," that is the kind of gloss I referred to previously that is beyond what Buster is reporting. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 10:37:55 pm
Some other thoughts:
1.  Is it possible that Theo who wants all the passion and urgency and wants guys trying harder, thinks Bryant is too quiet and calm?  Not quite the urgency and fire that Theo ideally prefers in the clubhouse?  Too much nice, not enough fire?
2.  Is it possible that Theo thinks, as Chili expressed re some Cub hitters, that pitchers have a method against Bryant, and that Bryant may never be able to hit HR's like the 39 he hit in 2016? 
3.  Is it possible that Theo is concerned that Kris will now need to stick with the two-handed follow-through to stay healthy; and that if so that he may not have MVP 39-HR-power again? 

1) Maybe, but I kinda doubt it
2.) Bryant before the injury had more walks than strike outs and was hitting for power.  He was amazing.
3.) In another pitch to why the Athletic is better.  Sharma had an excellent piece on hitters with shoulder injuries similar to Bryant and how they did the next year.  The returned to their previous career norms.  As longs as Bryant doesn't need surgery he will be fine.  If he needed surgery it would be a much bigger issue.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 10:42:11 pm
Regarding Jeff's hypothetical trade with Rockies--have read that Rockies are crazy about Dahl, love him. So, can't see that. Talk about a Coors home field guy.  His splits are WIDE.

Arenado, including what Dusty noted, I could see that a year from now when Arenado hits free agency.  (Or, even now if Arenado signed an extension).  CBJ has raised legit points about his home/road but think we can all agree that Arenado is a wonderful player.  Think he's near the top end of the most likely future HOFers among the younger guys around today. So, when Bryant is two years away from FA a year from now---could see going after Arenado.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 10:53:31 pm
Buster isn't saying or implying "actively shopping" Bryant. 

If he was saying that, he wouldn't have said:  "it doesn't mean they're intent on trading him." 

He is saying Cubs are encouraging clubs to make an offer, if the other clubs see fit to do that.  Then, if they get an offer(s), they'll evaluate the offer and have discussions about it.  To me, "actively shopping" means the club wants to move the guy and will do so if get near 100 cents on the dollar.

In previous years, they have not encouraged anybody to make an offer.  That's the difference.

When you say "actively shopping," that is the kind of gloss I referred to previously that is beyond what Buster is reporting. 

What would you call "encouraging offers?"  That is more than passively listening.  Encouraging offers is a far more active stance for the Cubs front office. 
Buster probably said that they weren't intent on trading him as CYA. If the Cubs don't trade Bryant, and World Series contenders don't trade Bryant level players, he would get this thrown back at him constantly.  He now has an out of saying, I never said they were actually going to do it.

Because of course if Theo were sending a message through the media he’d admit it...

Theo truly is an evil genius, he got another front office to leak that the Cubs where shopping Bryant to light a fire under Bryant.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 11:02:35 pm
Look, Bryant is a great player.  His fire and passion? Come on, give me a break. And, no, pitchers have not figured out how to solve him. And, no, we don't know with certainty that the shoulder will be fine. Very likely will be fine, but can't know for sure. Not much in baseball is for sure.  All, basically, non-issues, I think, regarding the off-season.

Whatever Cubs are actually contemplating as to Bryant and his future Cubs tenure---Cubs are going to school on the Bryce Harper situation playing out today.  Boras, check, great players, check, current club loves the player, check, current club willing to go over the luxury tax,check. Now, Nats very, very likely to see Harper leave. Bryant, check, three years from now say goodbye? 

So, clubs out there, make me an offer on Bryant.  See what's out there.  If there's a good baseball move at some point (including signing Arenado to play 3B a year from now), Cubs want to know their options. Different than a year ago because we're getting closer to Bryant FA and Cubs have not won the World Series two years running...and that's too long for the New Cubs Tradition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 13, 2018, 11:06:30 pm

Good point.  Guy totally trusts his agent to do whatever agent deems best.  But maybe guy really likes it here, and doesn't actually want to go.  Perhaps some media that if you want to stay, you may want to communicate that to your agent, and have a voice in where your career and contract goes?


Some other thoughts:
1.  Is it possible that Theo who wants all the passion and urgency and wants guys trying harder, thinks Bryant is too quiet and calm?  Not quite the urgency and fire that Theo ideally prefers in the clubhouse?  Too much nice, not enough fire?
2.  Is it possible that Theo thinks, as Chili expressed re some Cub hitters, that pitchers have a method against Bryant, and that Bryant may never be able to hit HR's like the 39 he hit in 2016? 
3.  Is it possible that Theo is concerned that Kris will now need to stick with the two-handed follow-through to stay healthy; and that if so that he may not have MVP 39-HR-power again? 
1. No. Theo isn't going to expect everybody to have a big voice.  No one questions Bryant's devotion and hard work.
2. No. Chili got fired. He's the guy who Theo decided needed to go, not Bryant. Theo has never waivered from "launch angle" and he's made that clear.
3. Very doubtful - Bryant was only using the two-handed swing in BP, not during games, so that seems very, very far fetched.

I really do think there is WAY too much being made of this stuff.  A function, I suppose, of there nothing actually happening right now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 11:17:21 pm
Buster is today saying that Cubs not intent on trading Bryant because it is totally consistent with the initial report.  Not a CYA at all.  He's responding to those who are blowing up what he said to be something more than what he said.

Yes, "encouraging offers" is more than "passively listening."  But, you characterized Buster as saying "actively shopping."  The key word there is "shopping."  (Isn't "shopping" always active? What is passive shopping?).

Think we all know what actively shopping generally means.  You go into the store and you intend to come out of the store with something you didn't have before.  Not what Buster is saying.

Don't know why what Buster is actually saying is so hard to fathom.  There are reasons why they might want to do what Buster says they are doing. It's a narrow point. But, it's a change from before and, given Bryant's stature, it's newsworthy, I think.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 13, 2018, 11:19:00 pm
. And, no, we don't know with certainty that the shoulder will be fine. Very likely will be fine, but can't know for sure. Not much in baseball is for sure.

We don't know for certainty that the team plane won't crash killing all on board either, so what is the point of this.

Whatever Cubs are actually contemplating as to Bryant and his future Cubs tenure---Cubs are going to school on the Bryce Harper situation playing out today.  Boras, check, great players, check, current club loves the player, check, current club willing to go over the luxury tax,check. Now, Nats very, very likely to see Harper leave. Bryant, check, three years from now say goodbye? 

Every other team with World Series dreams keeps their best players.  If the Cubs blow up like the Nationals did in Bryant's freee agent year, maybe that is a reason to trade him at the deadline, but if you are contending getting rid of him makes the team worse.

So, clubs out there, make me an offer on Bryant.  See what's out there.  If there's a good baseball move at some point (including signing Arenado to play 3B a year from now), Cubs want to know their options. Different than a year ago because we're getting closer to Bryant FA and Cubs have not won the World Series two years running...and that's too long for the New Cubs Tradition.

Carlos Correa also said he won't sign an extension.  I'll wait for Astros should trade him articles because he might leave and all they'd get are a draft pick. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 13, 2018, 11:34:24 pm
If you think that the Harper situation is irrelevant to the Cubs long-term thinking about Bryant, think you are wrong about that.

It would very hard for Cubs to be better by trading Bryant. Totally agree with you on that. But, Theo thinks Big Picture and I think he doesn't want to get to Nats situation of today, if he can avoid it. Every club, of course, has a different context but there may be ways to address this,who knows. One reason why Arenado's pending FA is interesting. Sign another terrific (albeit lesser) 3B than Bryant and trade Bryant a year from now for good stuff.  Or, Theo being far more creative and knowledgeable than either you or me--do something else that didn't occur to us, at some point. And, you can encourage offers this off-season that might be more realistic a year from now. Or, two. Could be a long-term process.

As to Correa, if Astros do with Correa what Buster says Cubs are doing with Bryant, you'll want to hear about it--or at least Astros fans will want to hear about it.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 13, 2018, 11:37:18 pm
Quote
Just a thought: maybe this stuff got out there because the Cubs wanted Bryant to hear it.

This was my first thought when I heard about it.  One percent chance that they trade Bryant seems about right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 14, 2018, 12:00:55 am
The Nats situation wouldn’t be much better off if the traded Harper at the deadline.  The Nats for all the doom and gloom still have a talented roster with Soto, Turner, Max, Strasberg and Rendon. Losing Harper hurts, but they still aren’t gutting their team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2018, 12:19:33 am
The Nats situation wouldn’t be much better off if the traded Harper at the deadline.  The Nats for all the doom and gloom still have a talented roster with Soto, Turner, Max, Strasberg and Rendon. Losing Harper hurts, but they still aren’t gutting their team.

Agree with all of that.

But, Nats are now in a situation where Harper is very likely gone and the compensation is limited. They will still have a very good OF, in part because they traded for Eaton when he became available. And, of course, Soto developed faster (and better) than anticipated. They will be fine. But, it will be kind of a bummer going to Nats games and not getting to see Harper play.  Saw one of his first games at Nats Park and have seen several amazing long home runs over the years. Think it will take something out of the fan base in the short-term.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 14, 2018, 07:30:20 am
Perhaps the message to Bryant is that we can add Harper and keep you long term only if you agree to an extension now/soon. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 14, 2018, 01:10:00 pm
https://thebiglead.com/2018/11/14/buster-olney-espn-kris-bryant-mlb-pitcher-limits/

The Bryant stuff starts right at the beginning.  His story is described as the sense of other teams.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2018, 02:26:53 pm
Yeah, clubs got a sense about Cubs and Bryant because of what Cubs SAID to them. Actual words that convey a plain meaning.

According to Buster, Cubs said: “if you’re interested in making an offer on Kris Bryant, we’re all ears.”

If somebody said exactly that to you about something they owned, say, a car, wouldn’t you have a rational “sense“ that they are ready to discuss selling you their car? Think you would, no? It’s not some kind of subjective sense but rather is based on the plain meaning of what they told you.

By the way, did you find what Buster said about Bryant credible?—-and thanks for posting the interview as it was interesting on other points too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 14, 2018, 02:35:19 pm
Love the four pitchers limit idea.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 14, 2018, 02:42:55 pm
If you are a GM, and you're not listening to every offer made by any other GM for any player in your system, you're not doing your job worth a damn...regardless of how seriously you entertain the offer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 14, 2018, 02:46:22 pm
For sure, Dave.  But somehow I don't anticipate the Cubs are going around to teams saying
“if you’re interested in making an offer on Javier Baez, we’re all ears.”  Same for Rizzo. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2018, 02:54:28 pm
For sure, Dave.  But somehow I don't anticipate the Cubs are going around to teams saying
“if you’re interested in making an offer on Javier Baez, we’re all ears.”  Same for Rizzo. 

Yes, exactly.

A year ago, same for Bryant. That’s why Buster’s story is newsworthy. There’s a change from before.

And, still newsworthy even though likelihood of a trade is very low.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 14, 2018, 02:54:39 pm
But how do we know they aren't?

Just as one man's trash may be another man's treasure...one man's treasure could be another man's grail.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 14, 2018, 04:14:51 pm
I'm not as concerned about the Cubs trading Bryant as I am about what the Cardinals may do this offseason.    Trading for Goldschmidt, signing Donaldson for 3rd, and even overreaching and signing Harper would make them very very formidable. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 14, 2018, 04:22:26 pm
Yeah, clubs got a sense about Cubs and Bryant because of what Cubs SAID to them. Actual words that convey a plain meaning.

So Buster's story was entirely about the perception of a nuanced conversation for someone that is removed from the direct conservation by at least 1 person, possibly more.  This story is a nothing and people playing it up are being ridiculous.  Mr anti-rumor sure has changed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 14, 2018, 04:29:51 pm
Takes a lot of guts to rip Buster for this considering that even if his sources are legit, it’s still overwhelmingly likely Bryant won’t be traded and the peanut gallery can just cackle about how they were right and he was wrong.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 14, 2018, 05:05:50 pm
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/mlb-trade-rumors-cubs-sell-hold-stock-young-players-schwarber-happ-almora-caratini?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2018, 05:27:11 pm
So Buster's story was entirely about the perception of a nuanced conversation for someone that is removed from the direct conservation by at least 1 person, possibly more.  This story is a nothing and people playing it up are being ridiculous.  Mr anti-rumor sure has changed.

It's called journalism.  You get a information from a reliable source(s) and report it accurately.  That's what happened.

Because it is sourced, it is not a "rumor."  Definition of rumor according to Websters:  a report "disseminated with no discernible source."  Are you saying Buster made this up without a source?  Do you think Buster is credible? 

The only ones "playing it up" are those who misrepresent the story and/or who don't care to understand how journalists do their work. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 14, 2018, 06:24:59 pm
"I do not believe Kris Bryant will resign with the Cubs after 2021."--Dave Kaplan
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 14, 2018, 06:40:54 pm
You know what I haven’t missed, definitions. I’ll inform MLB Trade Rumors that they should rename their site to MLB Trade Journalism.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 14, 2018, 06:48:02 pm
Believe me, if MLBTR had no links and posted up nothing but unsubstantiated rumors from unknown non-journalists, the site would have disappeared long ago. On the contrary, the core of what they do is linking to, and summarizing, well-sourced journalists.

That’s why you read it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 14, 2018, 10:25:39 pm
I have to say that as Olney has become more specific about the way the Cubs have reportedly spoken about Bryant, it certainly does appear that there has been a change in their attitude.  I was skeptical initially, but not any more. It is interesting even though I don't think anyone expects anything to be done this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 12:37:24 am
Ron, I truly believe this is out there because the Cubs wanted Bryant to hear it, not because they seriously expect to deal him.  Either they weren't 100% sold on his rehab habits or (more likely) they want him to understand that if he plays hardball on an extension, they're under no obligation to see that he completes his pre-FA years as a Cub.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 15, 2018, 09:55:10 am
Quote
Ron, I truly believe this is out there because the Cubs wanted Bryant to hear it, not because they seriously expect to deal him.  Either they weren't 100% sold on his rehab habits or (more likely) they want him to understand that if he plays hardball on an extension, they're under no obligation to see that he completes his pre-FA years as a Cub.

This is where I am.  It's the last bit.

It will be disappointing if hard feelings over the extra stay in Iowa (something every club would have done) ultimately leads to KB being traded.  It won't be this year, but it could happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 15, 2018, 12:43:31 pm
I think Onley heard what he heard, but I'm not convinced that it is any sort of change in the Cubs stance. 

Since this came from other teams, I'm not sure how the Cubs are the ones wanting Bryant to hear it.  It would require Theo picking a team (s), saying sure we are  open to trading Bryant and we really want offers on him and then hoping that team leaks it to a reporter that runs with the story.  It all seems convoluted to me.  If the Cubs wanted it leaked, somebody would have mentioned it to Kaplan and he would have run with it.

As far as trading Bryant goes I've yet to hear a proposal that makes the Cubs a better team and saves them money.  In your World Series window you aren't trading your best player for prospects.  If you trade him for another major leaguer, the list of players that improves the Cubs is basically Trout and Betts.  I doubt either guy is getting traded.  For an equal value everyday player, most are going to be older and more expensive. 

The Cubs knew that when they took Bryant he was repped by Boras and the chances where high that he was going to test free agency no matter what.  The Cubs will have the option of bidding for him like everybody else and will have a nice TV contract and only Darvish and Heyward under contract.  The Cubs will have to make some decisions in 2022 as to what direction they go with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Russell and Theo becoming free agents. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 15, 2018, 12:59:56 pm

....Since this came from other teams, I'm not sure how the Cubs are the ones wanting Bryant to hear it.  It would require Theo picking a team (s), saying sure we are  open to trading Bryant and we really want offers on him and then hoping that team leaks it to a reporter that runs with the story.  It all seems convoluted to me.  If the Cubs wanted it leaked, somebody would have mentioned it to Kaplan and he would have run with it...l

Yes, totally agree with CBJ on that. Just too convoluted. Indeed, the local Chicago writers have mostly soft-peddled the Buster story—which wouldn’t be the case if Cubs were trying to send a message.

Also, to try to influence Bryant to sign and extend this way—-way too clumsy a method for a sophisticated operation that Theo runs. Cubs might believe that Boras/Bryant are going to change course this way? Don’t see that. Ham-handed. They know it wouldn’t work.

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 15, 2018, 03:45:18 pm
Sharma with another fine article. This one is on shifting lineups and playing time.

https://theathletic.com/655689/2018/11/15/are-joe-maddons-lineups-a-problem-for-the-cubs-or-the-main-reason-they-won-95-games-in-a-down-season/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 04:39:35 pm
Olney talked about the Cubs on his podcast and Jesse Rogers responded.

Olney said the are Cubs are “boxed in” with their payroll. Rogers says “I would not have said that 6-8 weeks ago as the season ended. I thought for sure they’d be in on the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and making some other changes. But I think the rhetoric changed once the front office got its budget. I think ownership drew a line.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 15, 2018, 05:35:01 pm
Sharma with another fine article. This one is on shifting lineups and playing time.

https://theathletic.com/655689/2018/11/15/are-joe-maddons-lineups-a-problem-for-the-cubs-or-the-main-reason-they-won-95-games-in-a-down-season/

Olney talked about the Cubs on his podcast and Jesse Rogers responded.

Olney said the are Cubs are “boxed in” with their payroll. Rogers says “I would not have said that 6-8 weeks ago as the season ended. I thought for sure they’d be in on the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and making some other changes. But I think the rhetoric changed once the front office got its budget. I think ownership drew a line.”

The way the media is reporting, it's looking more and more that they'll go into the season with the same dysfunctional mix of position players they've had the last two years. If this is the way they go, I think we're going to see them take a big step back in 2019.

I think the worst case scenario is that they have just enough money to make one medium-sized move and they decide to double down on their current versatility model by signing Marwin Gonzalez. All he does is add another hitter to the mix who has many of the same flaws that half the lineup already has.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 05:40:53 pm
Javy finishes second in the MVP, and gets the one first place vote that didn’t go to Yelich.  The result was obviously a fait acompli and no reasonable person could argue with it based on the way Yelich finished the season.  Still, it’s a great day for Javy and it’s a real vindication for everyone who believed in him while the skeptics were writing him off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 15, 2018, 06:01:54 pm
The way the media is reporting, it's looking more and more that they'll go into the season with the same dysfunctional mix of position players they've had the last two years. If this is the way they go, I think we're going to see them take a big step back in 2019.

I think the worst case scenario is that they have just enough money to make one medium-sized move and they decide to double down on their current versatility model by signing Marwin Gonzalez. All he does is add another hitter to the mix who has many of the same flaws that half the lineup already has.

What I don’t understand is if the budget is tight why would you pick up the $20 million option on Hemels. I like Hamels, but I think there would be more impact adding Harper for an extra $10 million.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 15, 2018, 06:30:07 pm
I understand trying to get something for Bryant especially if you think he's gonna leave as soon as he gets a chance and I know the sooner we trade him the more we can get for him.

My question is this.

Didn't we intentionally suck just so we could get these studs in their prime years for cheap?

Well now that we have an elite stud with 3 years left of control why would we want to get rid of him?

To restock a barren farm system with pitching?

Ok I understand but thats a small market move.

Do you believe in David Bote that strongly?

We should be better than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 15, 2018, 06:53:40 pm
Buster said on podcast discussion with Jesse Rogers today that while Cubs open to discussing Bryant, that Cubs “not shopping” Bryant. So, nothing to indicate Cubs necessarily “want”  to trade him. Encouraging offers, he says, but think everyone agrees that a trade very unlikely.

A year from now, maybe different story, I think—-might swing to somewhat more likely than now—me guessing that, not Buster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 06:58:58 pm
One might surmise that the problem, as much as this year and the luxury tax, is a direction from ownership that payroll is going to be strictly limited going forwards, long-term.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 15, 2018, 07:11:14 pm
Cubs don’t yet know how the post-2019 season TV deal(s) are going to shake out.

That is a big deal re. Payroll.

So, I would not infer that this off-season is a precursor of anything long-term just yet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 08:29:41 pm
Except that if the uncertainty is taking them out of the bidding for a superstar who clearly fancies playing for them and would seemingly address a lot of the team's problems, the impact is already here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 15, 2018, 09:38:52 pm
When you said going forward, long-term, thought you meant adding guys after this offseason.

If you meant long-term of losing out on Harper now, then, yes, that’s a long term impact immediately..
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 10:21:05 pm
When you said going forward, long-term, thought you meant adding guys after this offseason.

If you meant long-term of losing out on Harper now, then, yes, that’s a long term impact immediately..

Yeah, that's certainly a fair distinction.  Guess I would say I meant both.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 15, 2018, 11:03:11 pm
Kind of surprising the Cubs haven't been linked to A.J. Pollock, another guy who offers some huge upside with a lot of risk.  Health is a big question but he'd certainly look good in CF if can stay off the DL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 16, 2018, 11:03:55 am
.@dan_bernstein reporting that the Bryce Harper negotiations are picking up steam and that the Cubs are among the teams "in" on the free agent right fielder. https://t.co/tJn6KQF40G https://t.co/8UfoUewbBg
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 16, 2018, 11:11:22 am
For weeks, everyone who covers the Cubs has been saying they're not in on Harper. National writers like Olney and Passan have also said the Cubs don't have the budget to be in on Harper or Machado.

So I'm pretty skeptical of a rumor from one sports radio guy who usually isn't involved in the rumor mill. If it was Kaplan, maybe there'd be something there because he's usually plugged in. But as it is, I don't believe it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 16, 2018, 11:49:43 am
For weeks before that Harper was a rumored target as well.  Wasn't Bernstein talking about Darvish and the Cubs last year?  I thought I've heard him drop rumors in the past.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 16, 2018, 01:14:09 pm
Don’t know anything about Dan Bernstein but would hope that even a radio sports guy would have a credible source(s) before putting that out there.

Maybe that’s asking for too much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 16, 2018, 01:55:16 pm
Good luck if you want to outbid Phillies for Harper (and/or Machado).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/11/16/phillies-free-agency-bryce-harper-manny-machado/2016945002/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 16, 2018, 02:42:54 pm
Don't blame the Phillies.  They watched how many rings the Nationals won with Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 16, 2018, 04:00:12 pm
Carrie Muskat's replacement:

https://bastian.mlblogs.com/thanks-for-everything-cleveland-93f51c4be9ab

Also, Muskat's tweet in reply to that post seems to confirm that she'll be sticking around with a different publication:

Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat
Welcome home. And I'll see you at #Cubs games ...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 16, 2018, 05:25:15 pm
You think Bryant has Boston on his mind or California?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 16, 2018, 05:34:09 pm
Maybe Georgia
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 16, 2018, 05:43:16 pm
What team is moving to Las Vegas?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 16, 2018, 05:50:49 pm
Didnt his dad play for Boston and propose to his mom behind the green monster or something?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 16, 2018, 06:25:16 pm
Thanks for the link, brjones! 

Jordan Bastian writes really well and sure has the pedigree to do a GREAT job with MLB Cubs!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 16, 2018, 08:14:08 pm
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/11/16/report-bryce-harper-discussions-beginning-in-earnest-cubs-are-in/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 17, 2018, 09:11:04 am
Levine confirming Bernstein that the Cubs are in on Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 17, 2018, 09:22:27 am
I wonder if the Cubs could dump Heyward if they ate half his contract and threw in somebody like Russell or Edwards.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 17, 2018, 10:43:37 am
Levine said the Cubs didn’t have to shed money to sign Harper and that they have always been in on him.

Somebody suggested a Heyward for Cano trade. Cano for 5 more years is scary without a DH in the NL, but he’d be an upgrade on offense.  I don’t think Russell or Edwards would have enough value to off set Heyward, plus Edwards despite being inconsistent would be a loss in the bullpen. He is one of the few guys that can strike out people.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 17, 2018, 10:50:41 am
I think you would have to change the "or" to "and" to that trade to make it appealing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 17, 2018, 10:57:53 am
Levine said the Cubs didn’t have to shed money to sign Harper and that they have always been in on him.

I am not inclined to take Bruce Levine as seriously on something like this as I might be if it came from, say Kaplan. But at the same time, it's not nothing.  It seems to me that it's always a mistake to take too seriously early pundit predictions about what specific teams, particularly the Cubs, are going to do over the winter.  If it does turn out that the Cubs are seriously pursuing Harper, it should be yet another example of this.

That said, I'm skeptical the Cubs are doing anything beyond keeping options open.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 17, 2018, 11:07:15 am
If the perception is that the FA market will be slow and soft, there is no advantage for FAs to wait to make deals.  Early signings would make a lot of sense, and I expect that to happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 17, 2018, 11:54:53 am
I wonder if the Cubs could dump Heyward if they ate half his contract and threw in somebody like Russell or Edwards.

I don't think Russell adds any value to most teams. He's a PR nightmare (especially for a team on the west coast like the Mariners--maybe the PR is easier to navigate in a more politically diverse or conservative area of the company). Plus, he's getting expensive and just isn't very good at anything but defense. He's a throw-in at best.

I'm sure this won't be a popular opinion on this board, but I think the Cubs should cash in on Edwards' value this offseason. He still seems to be perceived favorably...but he's not actually *that* young (27), and he melts down far too often in critical situations. Plus, his stuff was noticeably down after he came back from injury. With his command, he's not going to have a long career if he permanently loses anything off his pitches (see Carlos Marmol, for example). You also have to wonder if he might be a TJ candidate soon.

I think this is the last chance they have to get real value out of him. Next offseason, I don't think it's that much of a stretch to think he could be a non-tender candidate...or at least a dump-for-nothing guy who would've had value a year or two before (like Kyle Barraclough was for the Marlins earlier this offseason). That's assuming he's not recovering from TJ surgery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 17, 2018, 12:05:06 pm
If the perception is that the FA market will be slow and soft, there is no advantage for FAs to wait to make deals.  Early signings would make a lot of sense, and I expect that to happen.

If there were going to be a lot of early signings, I would have expected it to start by now. With Thanksgiving week coming up, I'd be pretty surprised if more than a couple significant signings happen in the next 10 days or so. At that point, it's not really early in the offseason anymore--it'll have been a month since the World Series ended.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 17, 2018, 12:11:31 pm
Early relative to last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 17, 2018, 12:21:34 pm
I think Harper and Machado will move pretty early. But I think it's also likely that most of the secondary names (Donaldson, McCutchen, Pollock, etc.) will be waiting as long as Darvish and JD Martinez waited last year.

I could players who otherwise might have to take bench jobs or minor league contracts moving pretty fast to take the first offer they get. We might have seen the start of this in the last couple of days with Jeff Mathis and Steve Pearce signing pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 17, 2018, 01:14:57 pm
Unless the Phillies go nuts, Machado is going to sign before Harper so that Boras knows what number he has to beat. Once Machado signs I could see the rest market sorting itself out fairly quickly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 17, 2018, 02:18:19 pm

Somebody suggested a Heyward for Cano trade. Cano for 5 more years is scary without a DH in the NL, but he’d be an upgrade on offense...

Yeah, a good way to upgrade the offense: Cano in place of Russell and Harper in place of Heyward.

That’s a lot of runs (even though lose runs on defense).

Let’s see Theo pull that off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 17, 2018, 05:10:07 pm
I think you would have to change the "or" to "and" to that trade to make it appealing.

Even if you eat half Heyward's deal, as I said?  He's still the best RF in baseball defensively and above-average in center.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 17, 2018, 05:23:48 pm
I think the perception of other teams is that the Cubs are dealing from weakness.  They have pitchers losing velocity, pitchers injured, players like Schwarber, Heyward, Contreras, Russell playing below expectations, Russell with additional baggage.  It will be interesting to see if the FO makes a magic deal or they say the hell with it and pray the players turn it around. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 17, 2018, 07:25:55 pm
Yeah, I think to large degree they need to just take their chances and go with the same guys. 

I wonder if the Cubs maybe think their guys are better than other teams think they are?  Making a sensible trade kind of requires that the other side has similar (or higher) valuation of the talent you've got. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 17, 2018, 07:56:18 pm
That has been an issue from what I’ve read.

How do you value a guy like Happ with 5 years of control, 2 seasons of above average offense and a strike out problem. He has positional flexibility even if he isn’t great on offense. You wouldn’t trade him for a non-stud relief pitcher, but would he actually get one?  Starting pitching isn’t a need, but he’s bringing back more of a league averaging guy and that doesn’t really help the Cubs. If you are trading him for an offensive player you are going to have to get a guy with less control, but who is out there?  Say he’s part of a deal for Merrifield, there is a decent chance Happ could be more valuable on offense. They have the same career wRC+, but Happ alone likely wouldn’t get him.

Improving the offense and trading Schwarber is even harder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 17, 2018, 07:59:14 pm
Maybe Schwarber would be enough of a sweetener to get somebody to take Heyward’s contract. That’s a thought if you somehow sign Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 20, 2018, 01:36:35 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  2m2 minutes ago

40-man roster now at 38.


Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  2m2 minutes ago

INF Jack Reinheimer claimed off waivers by Rangers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 20, 2018, 01:41:10 pm
The Rangers also outrighted former Cub Eddie Butler.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 20, 2018, 04:44:38 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dseu8QAVYAAKb3D.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 20, 2018, 04:48:04 pm
Everything’s normal, nothing to see here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 20, 2018, 05:20:18 pm
Rogers is tweeting it is personal and nothing to do with Madden.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 20, 2018, 05:52:42 pm
Trump is tweeting that Hickey could have gotten Bin Laden sooner.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 20, 2018, 05:58:09 pm
Rogers is tweeting it is personal and nothing to do with Madden.

That's so off-base it makes absolutely no sense, when it was Maddon who got Hickey hired in the first place.

No, it's not Maddon - it's Theo, and it's a message to Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 20, 2018, 06:04:31 pm
Relief depth:

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs acquire pitcher Rowan Wick from Padres for infielder Jason Vosler. Wick will be added to 40-man roster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 20, 2018, 06:10:22 pm
If they are sending Madden a message why not fire him with Chili?  Why the delay?  ESPN radio in Chicago suggest the delay was due to him possibly taking a different job in the org.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 20, 2018, 06:21:42 pm
Relief depth:

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs acquire pitcher Rowan Wick from Padres for infielder Jason Vosler. Wick will be added to 40-man roster.


Don't see much there, but it's not like Vosler has any real value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 20, 2018, 06:38:19 pm
Wick is a former position player that converted to pitching.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on November 20, 2018, 07:34:40 pm
Maybe Wick is the next Jacob deGrom?  (position player turned pitcher) 

:)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 20, 2018, 07:38:11 pm
Cubs outrighted Vasto and Field and rostered Steele.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 20, 2018, 09:01:57 pm
Maybe Wick is the next Jacob deGrom?  (position player turned pitcher) 

:)

Wick can't hold a candle to deGrom.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 20, 2018, 10:36:54 pm
Interesting with Hickey.  deeg, of course you view and assume all things through the political filter of a Maddon/Theo power struggle.  And it's entirely possible that such a struggle exists and that Hickey is/was very much a player in such a conflict. 

But I think it's maybe at least possible that it really is personal and has nothing to do with Theo or Maddon?  It's a long season and a long career, and I'd think those coaches could have their own drugs and alcohol and marital problems all their own.  So too might a spouse left behind at home.  Plus family issues can come with life with kids needing help with stuff;  and Hickey's old enough where his parents might need help with stuff.   

To some degree the timing seems oddly late/slow *IF* this was really a case of Theo firing him?  If Theo and admin had decided that Hickey hadn't handled the staff well and would continue to fail to do so, I'm not sure I see how waiting until Thanksgiving would have been the standard or logical timeline?  Or why it would have taken them two months of post-season to reach that conclusion?  But **if** there were some personal things he was working through, or needed some time to see how a situation would develop, that might seem entirely consistent with this late announcement? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 20, 2018, 10:41:22 pm
Wick can't hold a candle to deGrom.
A pun worthy of P2
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 20, 2018, 11:31:10 pm
Craig, just to be clear I don’t see a power struggle. Theo has power and Joe doesn’t. As long as Theo is happy with Joe, that works out fine for everybody. When he isn’t...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 21, 2018, 12:55:45 pm
Jessie Rogers on Kapman confirmed it was in fact a personal issue that Hickey doesn't want to make public, it wasn't performance based.

Suggested that Tommy Hottovy will get promoted as the pitching coach.  He doesn't think it will be Price, Ferrell or Bosio.  The Assistant Hitting coach is still up in air, the might have missed out on their first choice.

Suggested their have been talks with Mariners and threw out Diaz's name as a possible target, I took it as more of a guess than an actual rumor.

He is guessing that the Cubs will tender Russell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 21, 2018, 01:14:38 pm
The Mariners have several guys who could help the Cubs. But given how DiPoto has been talking, it sounds like they really don't want to trade Diaz. I can't imagine the Cubs having the pieces to give up for him--I wouldn't be surprised of they insisted on Contreras, which is a non-starter for me.

I do wonder if Haniger might be a little more available than it seems he should be. He's going to play next season at 28, so he'd be 30-31 by the time the Mariners are ready to compete (using DiPoto's overly optimistic 2021 timeframe as a guide). He'd be a perfect fit for this lineup.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 21, 2018, 02:25:51 pm
Like Happ+?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 21, 2018, 02:28:38 pm
Sign harper, send Schwarber and Happ off for Noah.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 21, 2018, 02:36:33 pm
Longenhagen on Wick/Vosler trade:

“Wick is a capable, generic middle reliever. He works 93-96, has an above-average slider, and a change-of-pace curveball.

Vosler is a an extreme fly ball hitter (over 50%) with huge platoon splits. He might be just a 30 bat, but Vosler can play third and first and he crushes lefties; I think he’s a corner bench bat or platoon player.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 21, 2018, 03:11:21 pm
I  think Schwarber will end up in the AL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 21, 2018, 04:56:13 pm
Longenhagen on Wick/Vosler trade:“Wick is a capable, generic middle reliever. He works 93-96, has an above-average slider, and a change-of-pace curveball...”

Sounds like Wick's stuff is fine, as with a million other good-arm relievers, it's probably a question of command. 
Wick has 72BB in 142 minor league innings.  Problem got worse this year in high minors, 31BB/54 innings. 

Interesting that at age 26, he's only accumulate 142 minor-league innings.  So, maybe there is still some learning to do.  Although having come from the Cardinals development system, not likely that the Cubs development people will do better with a pitcher than the Cardinals did?   Heh heh, maybe a nice project for our new pitching coach!  :)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on November 21, 2018, 07:36:33 pm
Sign harper, send Schwarber and Happ off for Noah.

Noah Who??
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on November 21, 2018, 08:05:09 pm
Noah Snydargaard (sp?)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 21, 2018, 08:11:01 pm
I'd hate to trade Schwarber or Happ.

I'd move Russell or Almora but Im inclined to believe Almora would make me regret it.

We better be talking Mike Troutt before we talk about Contreras.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 21, 2018, 08:42:05 pm
There's not enough absinthe in all of Manhattan to get them drunk enough to give us Syndergaard for Schwarber and Happ.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on November 21, 2018, 08:55:06 pm
Noah Snydargaard (sp?)

Am I being trolled? 

Schwarber and Happ for Syndrrgaard? 

I’d even throw in Wick, Nitro Nick (if we still own his rights), a rookie ball middle reliever and a couple boxes of baseballs to make that happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 21, 2018, 09:05:38 pm
Interesting that at age 26, he's only accumulate 142 minor-league innings.  So, maybe there is still some learning to do.  Although having come from the Cardinals development system, not likely that the Cubs development people will do better with a pitcher than the Cardinals did?   Heh heh, maybe a nice project for our new pitching coach!  :)

He’s a converted C/OF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 21, 2018, 09:21:23 pm
Cubs don't have what the Mets will want for Syndergaard. Well, unless they want to make the team worse. The Mets would probably take Baez or Bryant for him.

I would be shocked if the Cubs added a premium starter this offseason. I could see a very unlikely scenario where the Cubs matched up uniquely with Cleveland and traded for Carrasco, who still seems to be undervalued...but even that is so remote it's barely worth considering.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 22, 2018, 09:49:00 am
Am I being trolled? 

Schwarber and Happ for Syndrrgaard? 

I’d even throw in Wick, Nitro Nick (if we still own his rights), a rookie ball middle reliever and a couple boxes of baseballs to make that happen.

They would have to be autographed baseballs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron Green on November 23, 2018, 11:23:09 am
You almost have to believe the Cubs are going to be serious players on either Harper or Machado, even if things eventually get too rich for their blood. The question is probably which one.

*IF* the Cubs signed Harper, you would have to expect them to move Heyward, which would likely require eating about $10M - 20M a year in his salary.  Ignoring the likelihood of any of it, if a team is paying part (or all) of the salary of a player they have traded away, are those payments counted toward the luxury tax?  If so, the cost of signing Harper needs to be viewed as not only the salary he would be paid and the resulting luxury tax, but also both the additional salary the Cubs would have to eat in moving Heyward... AND the luxury tax that move would cost.

Signing Harper could get very expensive very fast.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 23, 2018, 01:11:08 pm
AZ Phil speculation:

Arizona Phil  on Fri, 11/23/2018 - 12:04pm 
I would expect the Cubs to try and sign 2B-3B-LF Cory Spangenberg to a minor league contract with an NRI to ST once he clears Release Waivers. If the Cubs sign him he would essentially replace Jason Vosler at Iowa, and he could get a call-up at some point in 2019 (he has one minor league option left if he were to be added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster). Spangenberg was the 1st round draft pick of the San Diego Padres in 2011 (one slot below Javier Baez) back when Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod were running the Padres, so there is that connection.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 23, 2018, 01:15:34 pm
Ron, welcome.  Don't be surprised if you don't get responses.   Thanksgiving weekend is usually dead.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 23, 2018, 10:47:12 pm
Ron, welcome.  Don't be surprised if you don't get responses.   Thanksgiving weekend is usually dead.

Only lonely people with no friends, like CurtOne, post on Thanksgiving weekend.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 23, 2018, 10:54:49 pm
I have friends.  They're just in hiding.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 24, 2018, 01:14:25 am
Witness protection?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 24, 2018, 01:16:15 pm
MLB Trade Rumors posted a list of players who could potentially be a part of contract swap trades this offseason:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/2018-19-contract-swap-candidates.html

As it says in the introduction, not all of these contracts are underwater (Goldschmidt and Bumgarner are listed, for example)...they're just listed because salary could be part of the equation for finding a trade. That said, most are bad contracts.

Are there any good fits for swapping the Cubs bad contracts there? Since Kintzler has a strong history with Minnesota, I wonder if the Cubs could deal him for Jason Castro (and maybe involve Duensing or money as well to even out the cost).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 24, 2018, 06:10:14 pm
I have friends.  They're just in hiding.

From you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 24, 2018, 06:12:26 pm
Man, I thought last winter was a slog but what a monumentally boring offseason it's been so far.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron Green on November 24, 2018, 07:31:20 pm
.... 2018 ending in disaster.

95 wins is hardly a disaster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 24, 2018, 07:34:11 pm
The ending was a disaster though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 25, 2018, 02:22:25 pm
Man, I thought last winter was a slog but what a monumentally boring offseason it's been so far.

Yeah, this is probably just the new normal until the CBA changes again.

Hopefully there will be a little action this week ahead of the deadline to tender contracts to players on Friday. If the Cubs are going to move on from Russell, they'd probably ideally like to deal him this week, or at least have someone in place to replace him so they can feel comfortable with a non-tender.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 25, 2018, 08:23:05 pm
If the Cubs do part ways with Russell, Richie Martin might be an interesting option as a back up.  He’s a good defensive SS. He makes contact, his career high K% is 20.8%. The last 2 years it has been 17.5 and 16.8% and he can take a walk. He is a plus runner with 25 steals in 35 attempts and he had a offensive breakout in AA. It was in the Texas league and he had a high BABIP, but his ISO improved too. He is eligible for the Rule 5 and the Cubs would need to trade up in the draft to get him, but a defensive guy that can run and put the ball in play wouldn’t be a horrible back up to Baez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 25, 2018, 08:31:30 pm
And to the new guy. Welcome!

It mostly matters what the Cubs owners will allow in the budget. I posted something about the Braves making $100 million on a $133 million payroll for the 40 man roster. The Cubs had a $183 million payroll last year and the had 600,000 more in attendance, about $20 more in average ticket cost and a better TV deal. Just ball parking the numbers the Cubs get around an extra $83 million in attendance and $30-40 million more on the TV deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 26, 2018, 07:04:07 am
Amazon is involved in the bidding for the YES network. That’s very interesting.  The Cubs are a team with a national fan base which could be intriguing for Amazon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 26, 2018, 07:30:49 am
Last year, the storyline was that the teams were saving money for the big names in this year's free agency class.  I wonder if the lack of movement this year, is that the players are waiting for the big names to sign and set the bar and salary expectations.   Well, except for Deeg, who still believes in collusion.  The Mets sure screwed that up by hiring an agent to be GM didn't they?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 26, 2018, 07:34:06 am
Amazon is involved in the bidding for the YES network. That’s very interesting.  The Cubs are a team with a national fan base which could be intriguing for Amazon.

Bleacher Nation story dated November 21

Quote
This is something that should be on your radar, as it’s entirely possible the Cubs have already negotiated with Amazon about partnering on the creation of a hypothetical “network” that is available only on Amazon Prime (the mind boggles in thinking about how much the Cubs could charge Amazon for that …. ).

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/21/another-sign-that-the-world-of-tv-rights-could-change-dramatically-amazon-bids-on-rsns/https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/21/another-sign-that-the-world-of-tv-rights-could-change-dramatically-amazon-bids-on-rsns/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 26, 2018, 08:10:53 am
Anyone who doesn’t believe in collusion may as well believe in the tooth fairy, based on their connection to reality.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 26, 2018, 08:16:30 am
Wait a minute.  Are you saying there's no tooth fairy?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 26, 2018, 08:41:45 am
I still don't think there's any collusion. I think front offices in general are smarter so they're not wasting money. And the CBA rewards not spending, so there are more free agents available than there are openings for them at the prices they're asking. Teams know they can wait out the market and get a discount price in January or February because guys like McCutchen, Pollock, and Keuchel aren't going to sit out a season.

Last year, the storyline was that the teams were saving money for the big names in this year's free agency class. 

I think that was a convenient excuse. This free agent class is weak behind Harper and Machado. At this time last year, Corbin hadn't broken out yet, so there wasn't even a TOR type starter guaranteed to hit the market. It was made-up reason for teams not to spend money last year. Within a week or two, I'm sure we'll start hearing how teams are holding back this year so they can sign next year's free agents (Goldschmidt, Arenado, Rendon, Bumgarner, Cole, Sale).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 26, 2018, 01:30:42 pm
Read an interesting suggestion over on the PSD forum (assuming they know what they're talking about regarding the luxury tax): Cubs send Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing to the rebuilding Diamondbacks for Yasmany Tomas. The money is pretty much a wash (though the Cubs' half is concentrated more in the first year).

Why it might make sense for the Cubs: Tomas has been DFA'd and is no longer on their 40 man. Therefore, his salary doesn't count for luxury tax purposes. If the Cubs are more concerned about reducing luxury tax implications than saving real money, it basically removes about $21 million from their 2019 luxury tax commitment.

Why it might make sense for the Diamondbacks: they're rebuilding, and Tomas is pure dead money. Assuming they won't have any 2019 luxury tax issues, they're probably better off with a possible lottery ticket in Chatwood and two middle relievers who could be moved if they're decent in the first half.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 26, 2018, 01:47:21 pm
Trading used toilets.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2018, 02:47:44 pm
Clarkin back the White Sox on a waiver claim......
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2018, 03:37:57 pm
Hinske going to the D-Backs as an assistant hitting coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 26, 2018, 04:59:19 pm
From Levine:

Quote
Joe Maddon told the Tampa Times he will spend more time on the field with actual coaching and less time with Media obligations . Maddon is responding to a challenge by the front office.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron Green on November 26, 2018, 06:17:08 pm
I still don't think there's any collusion. I think front offices in general are smarter so they're not wasting money. And the CBA rewards not spending, so there are more free agents available than there are openings for them at the prices they're asking. Teams know they can wait out the market and get a discount price in January or February because guys like McCutchen, Pollock, and Keuchel aren't going to sit out a season.


If teams KNOW they can wait until January or February AND that guys like McCutchen, Pollock and Keuchel are going to be around.... well, you would have just proven collusion.

The only way for teams to KNOW such players will not be around is if other teams, all of them, have agreed they are not going to sign them before then.

Otherwise it is impossible to KNOW they are not going to be around.... and even if all other GMs have said they are not going to sign them, it is hard to be sure some over anxious GM, wanting to get an edge on the competition, will not break ranks and sign them.  That is the real reason collusion is unlikely to exist, the fact that other teams, each wanting to be a winner, will break ranks and sign someone ahead of the time others agreed to wait until, or for just marginally more than the others had agreed they would hold contracts beneath.

Competition is the strongest assurance against collusion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2018, 07:20:15 pm
I don’t want to speak for BR, but I think he was trying to say that baseball front offices are becoming more similar in how they value players. They don’t need to get together and say they aren’t going to sign players for more than X dollars, they just realize that is generally a bad idea. Unfortunately the CBA, agents and players haven’t adapted to how front offices value players so they will be around later for teams to pick up on cheaper deals later on.

If you aren’t hitting free agency at 26, players might be better off taking Josh Donaldson type deals. Higher AAV for shorter terms and betting on their health.   

The union is going to have to find a way to get their members paid earlier in their careers and that will hurt some of the players in the short term. It will be amazing if baseball doesn’t go on strike with the next CBA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 26, 2018, 07:45:40 pm
You did a good job speaking for me. There’s no intentional collusion, but front offices are generally on the same page on how they value players.

On The Athletic, Mooney thinks Chris Denorfia could end up being the Cubs’ new Assistant Hitting Coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 26, 2018, 07:54:09 pm
Did he ever know how to hit?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 26, 2018, 08:37:59 pm
It might seem that good players aren't going to take reasonable offers this early.  The agents aren't colluding.  Just figuring that some teams holding their bullets for Harper/Machado won't get them, at which point they will shoot for players who are good but not THAT good.  So players wanting max bucks are waiting for more bidders. 


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2018, 08:51:38 pm
Denofria had a career wRC+ of 103. That surprised me.

The Braves DFA’d Adam McCreery, a 6-9 LHRP, that just screams Cubs waiver claim. He averaged 92 in his 1 inning in the big leagues, but the fastball plays up with his extension. He strikes people out and has serious control issues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 26, 2018, 09:10:53 pm
Serious control issues?  That's So Cub!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 26, 2018, 09:16:21 pm
Lotta tooth fairy enthusiasts in here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 26, 2018, 09:58:02 pm

Why it might make sense for the Cubs: Tomas has been DFA'd and is no longer on their 40 man. Therefore, his salary doesn't count for luxury tax purposes. If the Cubs are more concerned about reducing luxury tax implications than saving real money, it basically removes about $21 million from their 2019 luxury tax commitment.


That is the first time I have heard the claim that luxury tax is only counted for those players on the 40 man roster.  It might be accurate, but it would certainly leave the system open for gaming it, and they have gone to great lengths to prevent gaming, such as making the computation the AAV of the entire contract, not merely the amount of money a player gets in any specific year.

However, it the claim is true, that would certainly be a reasonable trade for both teams.

Has any severely injured player with a long term contract merely been released, in order to avoid the luxury tax?  I don't recall any, but it might have happened without comment by the media?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 26, 2018, 10:57:11 pm
Lotta tooth fairy enthusiasts in here.

Nothing under their pillows though, I bet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2018, 11:30:32 pm
That is the first time I have heard the claim that luxury tax is only counted for those players on the 40 man roster.  It might be accurate, but it would certainly leave the system open for gaming it, and they have gone to great lengths to prevent gaming, such as making the computation the AAV of the entire contract, not merely the amount of money a player gets in any specific year.

However, it the claim is true, that would certainly be a reasonable trade for both teams.

Has any severely injured player with a long term contract merely been released, in order to avoid the luxury tax?  I don't recall any, but it might have happened without comment by the media?

Rusney Castillo is another example. From NSB if a player has less than 5 years of service time when the get DFA they have to go to the minors to keep their contract. If the have more than 5 years they can elect to be waived and keep the contract. So you’d have to have a young player that signed an extension or is an IFA that flames out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 27, 2018, 02:40:07 am
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=newssearch&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjyxvvulfTeAhVP0FMKHQ9FB4gQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cincinnati.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Freds%2F2018%2F11%2F25%2Fchicago-cubs-interview-bryan-price-john-farrell-per-report%2F2111429002%2F&psig=AOvVaw0JzX8dtwnlyM3Y5tEEShjy&ust=1543394278409320
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 27, 2018, 09:10:48 am
Jesse Rogers

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Cubs should be finalizing their coaching staff soon. I mentioned Chris Denorfia and Tommy Hottovoy on radio recently. Add former player Terrmel Sledge to the mix. All 3 could round out the staff. Sledge was with the Cubs (minors) in '15.

Sledge is a former OF and was the Dodgers AA hitting coach last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 27, 2018, 09:37:22 am
Didn't he sing "When a Man Loves a Woman"?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 27, 2018, 09:43:55 am
Fun fact: Terrmel Sledge collected the final RBI in Montreal Expos history.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 27, 2018, 09:49:42 am
Fun fact: Terrmel Sledge collected the final RBI in Montreal Expos history.
So he was Terminal Sledge?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 27, 2018, 10:24:16 am
Fun fact: Terrmel Sledge collected hammered out the final RBI in Montreal Expos history.
Fixed
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 27, 2018, 04:43:44 pm
This offseason is so dead Termel Sledge is the hot topic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 27, 2018, 04:56:03 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N4
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest118 on November 27, 2018, 04:58:13 pm
My biggest issue with the Cubs the last 2 years is no leadoff hitter like Dexter Fowler. I do not want the current Fowler back, but we need a leadoff hitter with speed.

The guy I want is Whit Merrifield - 2nd base from KC. He is 30 years old and will not be a part of KCs re-building. 45 stolen bases and .376 OB%.

I can't find another available player who fits the need and position better. I am guessing Baez plays short all next season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 27, 2018, 05:29:14 pm
HAS BEERFAN 1 BEEN FIRED YET?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 27, 2018, 06:22:38 pm
I can't find another available player who fits the need and position better. I am guessing Baez plays short all next season.

Jean Segura is the other guy who might fit that role. In some ways, I think he fits it better. He's a couple years younger and is more established--I'm worried about Merrifield being able to repeat his 2018 season since it was driven so much by BABIP, but Segura has been a quality leadoff type for three years now. Also, Segura can play SS--the Cubs will need someone to back up Baez at SS if they move on from Russell, and Merrifield can't do that. Segura is also probably more available and less expensive in a trade.

The big drawback of Segura is his contract--it's reasonable, but the Cubs probably can't take it on without moving some money. Moving Chatwood would offset it in the near term, so they'd probably have to convince the Mariners to take him back as part of the deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 28, 2018, 08:19:27 am
Big market, World Series contending teams don't need to weaken this year's team to get players who might help in 3-5 years when the team is not guaranteed to be a contender. They try to win the World Series this year. Future seasons are secondary. Tampa's and Oakland's front offices may need to run that way, but the Cubs should not be looking to marginally improve their farm system by taking a few wins away from the current team.

I seem to remember this very same kind of comment after Lee's monster season when the possibility of trading him was raised, and again when the possibility of completely tearing down the team and rebuilding (the very approach used by the Theocracy) was raised.  And, if I am not mistaken, it was raised then by the same folks saying it now.

It is no less wrong now than it was then.

If they sign Harper, for instance. for 30 million per year, it will NOT be for a one year contract, but for a large number of years.

What of the possibility of signing Harper for say three years at $45/year, getting him in the lineup during the period when the window of opportunity is widest, even if it meant overpaying a bit for those years, but also leaving Harper able to re-enter the market for another longer term killing when he is still young enough to get a big and lengthy contract?

Actually, she was quite clear about him having hit her.

“The first time I was physically mistreated by my spouse, I was in shock,” Reidy-Russell wrote. “I couldn’t wrap my head around what just happened. … Why did he get so angry? What did I do for him to want to put his hands on me?"

If you want to be taken seriously around here, please try not to be worthless lying sack of ****.

No offense to you personally.

Where in that quote does she say he HIT her?  "Put his hands on me" is not the same thing as "hit me."

Almora is a superstar. It's right around the corner (according to most of the people on BBF).

I have long thought I was one of Almora's stronger supporters here, and I have thought his realistic top side was being the equivalent of the late 1960's Curt Flood with a bit more power.  Flood was a three time All Star, with an average of just 6 HR a year, with a career OPS+ of just 100, only stole more that 11 bases a year once and had a career SB% of only 51%, but was a good old-school #2 hitter and was a key figure in three Cardinal pennants.  Nothing to dismiss, but nothing resembling a superstar.



For sure, Dave.  But somehow I don't anticipate the Cubs are going around to teams saying
“if you’re interested in making an offer on Javier Baez, we’re all ears.”  Same for Rizzo.

As is often the case, context is everything.

Theo calling other GM's and starting the call by saying, "I just wanted to check in with you to see if we might be able to help each other this off season and to make sure you know that if you're interested in making an offer on Bryant, we're all ears," would be vastly different from him making that comment in the middle of a call from another GM saying he wanted to talk about possible trades who during the discussion mentions his own team's desire for Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 28, 2018, 03:00:18 pm
Cubs acquire Ronald Torreyes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 28, 2018, 03:29:59 pm
Not very good at baseball, but SS depth for the post-Russell era I suppose.  I still remember when he traded for him way back in the day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 28, 2018, 03:42:57 pm
Cubs also signed Kyle Ryan to a major league deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 28, 2018, 03:44:41 pm
If we couldn't afford Chavez at 2 years $8 million, I think maybe expectations need to be this sort of move and not much else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 28, 2018, 04:25:57 pm
The 40-man roster is full, for the moment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 28, 2018, 04:29:10 pm
Not very good at baseball, but SS depth for the post-Russell era I suppose.  I still remember when he traded for him way back in the day.

December 2011... And I still remember writing that he was likely the key return player we were getting back for Sean Marshall...  At the time of the trade, Torreyes had a minor league BA of better than .360 in more than 600 minor league AB, was also drawing walks and had an OPS above .900, and even if all of his games were at A level or lower he had only been 18 in his last season.

At this point I guess I can concede there is a remote chance I might have been wrong on that one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 28, 2018, 06:22:43 pm
7:00 P.M. Friday is the non-tender deadline.

The Cubs have to decide whether to tender a contract to shortstop Addison Russell
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 29, 2018, 02:36:18 am
Torreyes isnt that bad.

No speed or power but a career .280 hitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 29, 2018, 07:49:48 am
And a career OBP of .310
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 29, 2018, 09:59:46 am
He's a better insurance policy than Freeman, and a backup at SS and 2B while Russell is suspended. That's about it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 10:22:46 am
Somebody menitioned he might still have an option left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 29, 2018, 11:43:59 am
According to AZ Phil, Ryan and Torreyes each have one option remaining.

Torreyes is arb-eligible as a super-two.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 29, 2018, 12:44:55 pm
Discussion about this at Bleacher Nation—that Torreyes acquisition impacts LaStella significantly, as Torreyes can fill in as a backup SS off the bench and LaStella can’t.

That would not be as big a deal unless Russell is moved out.

Would be very disappointed if Russell non-tendered. Hoping to see him rehabilitated and reach his potential here. Or, at the least, include him in a deal for value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 29, 2018, 01:01:02 pm
I will be very surprised if Russell is non-tendered. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 29, 2018, 01:14:36 pm
I will be surprised if he's non-tendered, and I will also be disappointed when he's not non-tendered or traded. Even if he didn't have the non-baseball issues, he's just not that good on the field anywhere but on defense. He's shown no signs that his bat is developing, and has actually gotten worse the last two years. With the off-the-field issues and the fact that the Cubs just don't have much payroll flexibility added in, I just think it's time to move on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 29, 2018, 01:24:33 pm
Russell's offensive numbers were excellent in the minor leagues, with great promise.  Unfortunately, he was brought up a year too early, but had very good offensiver numbers in both 2016 and 2017, for an outstanding defensive shortstop.  Last year he had nagging hand injuries most of the year added to his off field problems, and I expect him to continue to improve with time to be an excellent hitter, as well as fielder.

I hope the Cubs give him the opportunity to change his life both on and off the field.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 29, 2018, 01:25:29 pm
Couldn’t agree more...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 01:37:15 pm
His offensive struggles have been around when he had a shoulder injury and hand injury this year.  He was above league on offense when he got hurt.  He's elite on defense at SS and if he can be league average on offense or better that is a 4-5 WAR player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 29, 2018, 01:40:13 pm
Based on wRC+ and OPS+, Russell has never been an average MLB hitter. Even in 2016--his best year--he was about 5% below league average. Obviously, that's fine for a great defensive shortstop.

In 2017, his wRC+ was 85 and his OPS+ was 84. In 2018, his wRC+ was 80 and his OPS+ was 74. He has been a bad hitter the last two years.

Since Russell came into the league, his wRC+ is 88. Across Chicago, Tim Anderson came into the league a year later...has career wRC+ is 86. Russell has really just been a better fielding version of Tim Anderson.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 29, 2018, 01:48:59 pm
#metoo
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 29, 2018, 02:05:59 pm
Russell has 12.0 bWAR through his age 24 season. That includes some partial seasons too, so more like 12.0 WAR in 3 1/2 seasons. That’s really good.

Yeah, his offensive development has been disappointing and frustrating for us but with possible off-the-field/injury extenuating circumstances that may have had an impact.

Key thing is his still-young age. Maybe he won’t get better, who knows, but really like his game.

If he is non-tendered, sure hope it’s not because of a payroll issue.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 02:27:28 pm
Based on wRC+ and OPS+, Russell has never been an average MLB hitter. Even in 2016--his best year--he was about 5% below league average. Obviously, that's fine for a great defensive shortstop.

In 2017, his wRC+ was 85 and his OPS+ was 84. In 2018, his wRC+ was 80 and his OPS+ was 74. He has been a bad hitter the last two years.

Since Russell came into the league, his wRC+ is 88. Across Chicago, Tim Anderson came into the league a year later...has career wRC+ is 86. Russell has really just been a better fielding version of Tim Anderson.

First half of the year before his hand injury he was wRC+ of 101.  His ISO went from .119 to .024 in the first to second half.  Last year after his shoulder improved he went from wRC+ 75 to 112.  His ISO was .154 to .242.  His K% is down from 28.5% as a rookie to 21.3%.  He walks around 8% of the time.  There are a lot of thing to be encouraged about that his offense will improve.  None of that really matters anymore, but I do think his offensive struggles have been health not talent related.

Anderson walks less, strikes out more, has less power, doesn't provide as much value running or on defense,  but except for all of that identical.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 02:59:31 pm
Patrick Mooney

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Sources: The Cubs are planning to add Terrmel Sledge to Joe Maddon’s staff as the assistant hitting coach. Sledge worked in the Cubs’ farm system (2015) and as a Double-A hitting coach for the Dodgers (2016-18). After his big-league career, Sledge played with Yu Darvish in Japan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 03:02:08 pm

Tweets

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The #Cubs today traded INF Tommy La Stella to the #Angels for a player to be named or a cash consideration.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 29, 2018, 03:03:18 pm
I'm sure Jesse Rogers is devastated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 03:05:09 pm
Jesse Rogers

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Tommy La Stella has been traded to the Angels
Jesse Rogers

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ugh
Jesse Rogers

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I'll be on ESPN 1000 at 3:15 Ct to breakdown this heartbreaking trade
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 03:06:08 pm
I liked Tommy as a pinch hitter, but it will be nice to not have to see him try and play defense again.
jon greenberg

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Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened. #3AM4EVA

(Pictures of La Stella and Rodgers hugging accompanies this tweet)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 29, 2018, 03:09:05 pm
Did we get Trout in return?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 29, 2018, 03:09:21 pm
OHTANI!!!!!!!  (we can't afford Trout)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 29, 2018, 03:22:33 pm
Now that the Cubs seem to have permanently gone to a 13 man bullpen/4 man bench, there's just not room for a guy like La Stella whose one tool is hitting pinch hit singles.

Switching out La Stella for Torreyes probably doesn't mean anything. But it's probably very slightly easier to move on from Russell now that their 25th man can play shortstop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 29, 2018, 03:29:16 pm
That cash in the La Stella deal is huge for the Rickettses.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 29, 2018, 04:40:53 pm
Cubs looking to add another infielder with versatility to play multiple spots . Free agent list likely place to find one .--Levine
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest118 on November 29, 2018, 04:50:51 pm
La Stella had a bad 2nd half. His OPS was .672 compared to 2017 at .861. OB% was .331 compared to .472 in 2017. The bad second half is why he is gone. He showed absolutely no power last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bad Century on November 29, 2018, 06:20:09 pm
Are we really taking shots at ownership ? 108 year drought ended . Wrigley vastly improved and around for another generation . Highest payroll in the game at the moment . Those bastards !!!!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 29, 2018, 06:30:36 pm
We? Who are you?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 29, 2018, 06:43:29 pm
Now that the Cubs seem to have permanently gone to a 13 man bullpen/4 man bench, there's just not room for a guy like La Stella whose one tool is hitting pinch hit singles.

Switching out La Stella for Torreyes probably doesn't mean anything. But it's probably very slightly easier to move on from Russell now that their 25th man can play shortstop.

So you think the Theocracy is going to want to move Russell, because Russell "He has been a bad hitter the last two years," and will want to replace him with Torreyes?  And his OPS of .680 over the last two years?

Am I understanding you  right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 29, 2018, 07:26:21 pm
La Stella had a bad 2nd half. His OPS was .672 compared to 2017 at .861. OB% was .331 compared to .472 in 2017. The bad second half is why he is gone. He showed absolutely no power last year.

Actually, La Stella was better 2nd half than 1st half.  He had a horrific June that sunk his 2018 numbers. I hope he does well with Angels. Seemed like he was popular among his Cubs teammates.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 29, 2018, 07:36:22 pm
It does indeed, which makes that entire weird incident where he threatened to retire rather than accept a demotion that much more odd.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 29, 2018, 07:49:10 pm
I must say it's highly irritating to see so many (not here, necessarily) equate the Heyward and Darvish signings as evidence the FO can't get it right on major FA signings.  Darvish missed almost the entire first year with an injury which at least in theory shouldn't impact him going forward.  Way, way premature to call that contract a disaster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 29, 2018, 09:13:38 pm
I don't blame the FO.  i blame Chris for Heyward and Deeg for Darvish.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 30, 2018, 09:23:54 am
I must say it's highly irritating to see so many (not here, necessarily) equate the Heyward and Darvish signings as evidence the FO can't get it right on major FA signings.  Darvish missed almost the entire first year with an injury which at least in theory shouldn't impact him going forward.  Way, way premature to call that contract a disaster.

Selective memory can prove just about anything.  Heyward and Darvish signings have turned out bad.  Hard to complain about the signings of Lester and Zobrist.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 30, 2018, 09:55:23 am
It’s way too early to say how the Darvish signing has turned out.   Bad first year but that’s it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2018, 10:11:06 am
A bad first makes it unlikely that the Cubs are going to get full value on the contract, but that doesn't mean it still can't be a good signing if he preforms well over the next couple of years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 30, 2018, 10:45:48 am
Sahadev Sharma on the importance of the leadoff position for the Cubs offense.

https://theathletic.com/682216/2018/11/29/mythbusters-did-the-lack-of-a-prototypical-leadoff-man-hurt-the-cubs-offense-in-2018/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 30, 2018, 11:25:04 am
Don’t think Sharma addressed the “robbing Peter to pay Paul” argument about leadoff.

Rizzo, Bryant, Baez combined for 42 leadoff starts. Rizzo had OPS of .979 at leadoff. These guys are good leadoff guys but they are good elsewhere too—and are going to contribute down in the lineup too, which is preferable.

Another 30 leadoff starts went to Murphy, who is now gone.

Almora at leadoff against lefties is good, but that’s lefties.

Even Zobrist is kind of nice to plug in at 6th or so, if you can.

Guess I’d like to see the 2018 version of Merrifield, or the like, leading off here in 2019—and maybe it should be more of a priority. Sure, you can do Rizzo leadoff but hurting lineup elsewhere when do that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on November 30, 2018, 12:47:57 pm
What's Bobby Derneir up to these days?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 01:21:06 pm
Cubs likely to tender Addison Russell a contract . He still has 29 days of a suspension to serve at beginning of the season . He is not paid until after May 3.--Levine
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 01:22:16 pm
Only a woman GM would have released him.

Im glad Theo and Jed werent as quick to castrate him as some here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 30, 2018, 01:30:48 pm
Maybe he would have punched the lights out of a woman GM.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on November 30, 2018, 01:53:22 pm
In Dusty's world there would never be a woman GM.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on November 30, 2018, 02:26:21 pm
Agree with you, reb.  If you want to make Rizzo the leadoff guy, you'll get good leadoff stats.  But that's not the point. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 30, 2018, 02:27:18 pm
Cubs and Russell issue statements today about his status.

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/30/cubs-and-addison-russell-release-lengthy-statements-about-his-suspension-and-his-tender/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 30, 2018, 02:37:00 pm
Cubs and Russell issue statements today about his status.

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/30/cubs-and-addison-russell-release-lengthy-statements-about-his-suspension-and-his-tender/

Hard to imagine much better statements from either the Cubs or Russell
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2018, 02:39:11 pm
Agree with you, reb.  If you want to make Rizzo the leadoff guy, you'll get good leadoff stats.  But that's not the point. 

Getting your best hitters the most PA is kinda a good idea though.

1st 778 PA
2nd 763 PA
3rd 745 PA
4th 724 PA
5th 710 PA
6th 691 PA
7th 668 PA
8th 656 PA
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 30, 2018, 02:52:42 pm
Yeah, that’s the contra argument.

Mookie Betts hits leadoff. That works for the Sox.

Trout hits 2nd or 3rd.

Rizzo typically hits 3rd or 4th.

I’m fine with Rizzo anywhere between 2 and 4 but not crazy about hitting him leadoff in the context of this current lineup.

On other hand, if Cubs sign Bryce Harper, I’m good with Rizzo-Bryant-Harper-Baez in that order.

That would work, no?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on November 30, 2018, 03:11:27 pm
Quote
Hard to imagine much better statements from either the Cubs or Russell

Indeed.  I'm sure he had help writing it, and who knows whether he believes it or not, but I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.  I don't think we know the details of what her blog post reference to him being physical means, do we?  That leaves lots of room for interpretation.  Many people jump right to assuming he beat her on a regular basis, but (without going all Dusty) there are plausible scenarios that are a lot less egregious that more forgivable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on November 30, 2018, 03:33:07 pm
Look, at minimum, Russell engaged in criminal assault. He didn’t have to “beat her on a regular basis” to be engaged in criminal simple assault. Physical menace—even without hitting/touching—is assault in most jurisdictions when intended to cause fear of harm. He has not denied that he did at least that much, as far as I can tell.

Russell is fortunate he didn’t end up in criminal proceedings in some fashion and Cubs and MLB are doing the right thing by taking this very seriously. It’s not useful to mitigate anything about this situation by enphasizing that he didn’t do something worse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on November 30, 2018, 03:40:44 pm
I’d actually prefer Harper-Bryant-Rizzo-Baez...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 30, 2018, 03:44:11 pm
Indeed.  I'm sure he had help writing it, and who knows whether he believes it or not, but I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.  I don't think we know the details of what her blog post reference to him being physical means, do we?  That leaves lots of room for interpretation.  Many people jump right to assuming he beat her on a regular basis, but (without going all Dusty) there are plausible scenarios that are a lot less egregious that more forgivable.
Rumor has it that Dusty helped Russell write his apology.  Russell was smart enough to delete the sentence, "The **** had it coming."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 30, 2018, 04:04:29 pm
Hard to imagine much better statements from either the Cubs or Russell

I don’t know, a better statement from the Cubs would be announcing a non-tender. But, if they are going to stick with him, they said all the right things I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 04:09:59 pm
Just to show you who were dealing with here Addison's ex recently put on her instagram that part of her recovery consisted of a new boob job.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on November 30, 2018, 04:14:40 pm
Dude, just stop. For your own sake.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 04:16:13 pm
I wont stop when I believe what I believe is right.

A woman isnt always right or always the victim just because she's a woman.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on November 30, 2018, 04:40:40 pm
Just to show you who were dealing with here Addison's ex recently put on her instagram that part of her recovery consisted of a new boob job.

You’re a boob job.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 04:49:26 pm
Reds will non- tender Billy Hamilton. Should the Cubs be a perspective landing spot for the veteran speedster.--Levine

Yes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on November 30, 2018, 05:06:23 pm
I wont stop when I believe what I believe is right.

A woman isnt always right or always the victim just because she's a woman.

Are you suggesting that he didn’t do anything wrong?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 30, 2018, 05:15:30 pm
Look, at minimum, Russell engaged in criminal assault. He didn’t have to “beat her on a regular basis” to be engaged in criminal simple assault. Physical menace—even without hitting/touching—is assault in most jurisdictions when intended to cause fear of harm. He has not denied that he did at least that much, as far as I can tell.

Russell is fortunate he didn’t end up in criminal proceedings in some fashion and Cubs and MLB are doing the right thing by taking this very seriously. It’s not useful to mitigate anything about this situation by enphasizing that he didn’t do something worse.

For all we know the "laid his hands on me" was him physically restraining her after SHE became violent with him, and that is assuming every word of what she has written was true and that she in no way exaggerated.  He may still have not "engaged in criminal assault."

You say he is "fortunate he didn’t end up in criminal proceedings in some fashion," but if he engaged in no criminal contact, then not being charged is not "fortunate," it is perfectly appropriate.

Many of you are eager to assume the worst here.

I am not even addressing the issue of whether her comments are the result of being a woman scorned or exaggeration or being a "gold digger" (Dusty's speculation) or having a distorted perception of what happened because she is looking at it all from her perspective.

I am taking everything she has written or been quoted as saying at face value and assuming every word of it to be the absolute truth.... and it is still quite easy to envision circumstances in which, even though everything she has claimed is true, he did nothing remotely close to criminal.  For those dismissing that possibility based on the fact that he accepted the suspension, he likely was acting on the advice of counsel, and it is easy to imagine an attorney advising him to let it go to avoid criminal prosecution, even though he did nothing wrong.  Domestic violence cases may at one time have been ignored and dismissed, and prosecuting attorney's and juries or judges may once have done nothing, but that has not been the case for about 20 years now (the O.J. case had a huge impact).  I have personally seen cases in which a husband was jailed for months awaiting trail when the only allegation against him was A) he tried to walk around his wife in the hallway when he was holding their two-year-old child in his arms and she was trying to block his way (he came into contact with her, but even she said he never pushed her or TRIED to push her out of the way); and B) after he was arrested and forced out of his house and given a no-contact order as a condition of his bond, he was foolish enough to go back home to have dinner with her before trial when she called him and ASKED him to come home to discuss reconciliation.

These cases can get very bad, very fast, even when the guy did not do a damn thing.

Am I saying Russell is a saint?

Of course not.  I am simply saying we have no reasonable basis to conclude he has ever been responsible for any physical abuse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 30, 2018, 05:18:26 pm
You’re a boob job.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have taken more than a few swipes at Dusty, but this was entirely unwarranted.  As is frequently the case with insults, and that includes any I have ever tossed, they tells us quite a bit about the person tossing them.  They tell us nothing at all about the target of the insult.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 30, 2018, 05:20:18 pm
What's Bobby Derneir up to these days?

I was thinking more along the lines of Kenny Lofton.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on November 30, 2018, 05:26:10 pm
Every now and then I click on the "show me the post" option for posts by Dusty or Jes. Today I did that and received vivid reminders for why I have both on "ignore."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 30, 2018, 05:34:03 pm
What did Ron say?  I have him on Ignore.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 05:58:30 pm
Only a woman GM would have released him.

Im glad Theo and Jed werent as quick to castrate him as some here.


The system really needs to be changed so that a post can be rated twice.  How can one possible choose between "sad" and "dumb" here?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 30, 2018, 05:59:45 pm
Here's a non-tender I could see the Cubs being interested in:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solarya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 06:32:16 pm
Some buzz that the Cubs are trying to get in on Realmuto and would deal Contreras.  If they could pull that off wth the incoming and outgoing value being close, that would be a big upgrade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on November 30, 2018, 06:35:46 pm
Here's a non-tender I could see the Cubs being interested in:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solarya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

He had a .655 OPS this past year,  a .731 the year before,  is 31,  has a career range of less than the league average in every position he has played,  and has stolen only 6 bases in more than 2,500 career MLB AB.

Do you want the Cubs to sign him just so you can have some legitimacy when your complain that the Cubs are the worst organization in professional sports?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 06:37:50 pm
No Cletus Im not suggesting he didnt do anything wrong.

What Im saying is we have no more reason to believe her than we do Addison and if he was playing better more people would believe him.

Case in point being Aroldis Chapman.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 30, 2018, 06:38:26 pm
I wasn't really clear on the Realmuto rumor...the Bleacher Nation write-up on the rumor seems to indicate it would be a swap of Contreras for Realmuto. But the original tweet from Craig Mish that started the speculation sounded more like the Cubs would trade for Realmuto, then spin Contreras somewhere else for an upgrade at a different position.

Trading for Realmuto then spinning Contreras in a deal for an outfielder or middle infielder who is a significant upgrade could be a really interesting move. But if it's just Contreras for Realmuto straight up, I'd rather keep the extra two years of control in Contreras.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on November 30, 2018, 06:40:36 pm
I think Contreras just saw the Realmuto rumor:

Willson Contreras @WContreras40
Lol....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 30, 2018, 06:48:24 pm
If you "cut in line" and grabbed Realmuto, you could probably get something pretty nice from the Astros for Contreras.  They would like that extra two years of control.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 06:50:31 pm
How about Contreras and Quintana for Syndergaard?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 07:16:22 pm
LOL, Torreyes already non-tendered.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 30, 2018, 07:45:47 pm
I would not trade Contreras straight up for Realmuto. 

And trading Contreras for an outfielder would depend upon what we had to give up to get Realmuto.

Why not just trade the guys you would have traded for Realmuto, for an outfielder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on November 30, 2018, 07:47:31 pm
LOL, Torreyes already non-tendered.

I assume that they have already have an agreement with Torreyes to resign him to a minor league contract with a NRI invitation to spring training.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on November 30, 2018, 07:49:38 pm
Of course, it depends upon what the specific team in question wants.

Could you trade Alzolay and some lower level parts (Lange, Marquez) for Realmuto?

Could you trade Contreras to the Astros for Kyle Tucker, with pieces parts added to both sides to balance it out?

Would any of that make sense?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2018, 07:56:17 pm
The price on Realmuto is a lot higher than Alozay. They are asking for Tucker or Whitley from the Astros.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 08:17:09 pm
Kareem Hunt, who's been a superstar for the Chiefs this season, immediately released after revelations about violent behavior towards women come to light.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 08:20:10 pm
When there was a video showing him whooping her ass and not just a jaded ex's word.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on November 30, 2018, 08:51:53 pm
Kareem Hunt, who's been a superstar for the Chiefs this season, immediately released after revelations about violent behavior towards women come to light.

In February and the team knew about it then.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 08:54:49 pm
In February and the team knew about it then.

But he denied it!

On that note, it's fascinating that Russell's widely-praised apology today was for something he denied doing in the first place.  Which "past behavior" is he apologizing for - the domestic abuse or lying about it for 18 months?  Or I guess one should say, which behavior is Boras' PR copy writer apologizing for?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on November 30, 2018, 09:28:00 pm
Is Theo getting ready for a big move?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on November 30, 2018, 09:36:36 pm
Is Theo getting ready for a big move?

Anything specific that makes you ask that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 09:44:06 pm
But he denied it!

On that note, it's fascinating that Russell's widely-praised apology today was for something he denied doing in the first place.  Which "past behavior" is he apologizing for - the domestic abuse or lying about it for 18 months?  Or I guess one should say, which behavior is Boras' PR copy writer apologizing for?

If he had continued to say he didnt do it then you would have complained because he didnt accept responsibility and apologize but if he accepts responsibility and apologizes he's admitting guilt right?

So what you're saying is he's a wife beating bastard and belongs in the pit of hell?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on November 30, 2018, 09:53:44 pm
Many of us often are critical of players and executives who fail to take responsibility for off-field transgressions. Addison Russell’s statement is encouraging, and Theo Epstein’s is even better - a model for how a team should deal with a player who commits domestic violence.--Rosenthal
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on November 30, 2018, 10:49:40 pm
I don't think comparing MLB to the NFL in how they handle these domestic cases is fair.  Remember, the NFL deals more harshly with these things because of the total clusterf#ck they made of the Rice situation.  They got so much flack, they've dealt more swiftly since.  MLB has been able to learn from that.  Odd that so many RP's get in this mess.  Wonder if it has anything to do with the stress of their jobs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 01, 2018, 03:24:44 am
When there was a video showing him whooping her ass and not just a jaded ex's word.

As I have pointed out, the real question with Russell is NOT just the credibility of he ex.

The real question is exactly what it is that she alleges.

Take every word she has said as the absolute truth and there are still far more possible circumstances she could have been describing which were NOT criminal conduct by Russell than possible circumstances that were.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 01, 2018, 06:26:04 am
Deeg, they just cleared space on the 40 man.  I'm speculating that there could be a move soon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 01, 2018, 06:39:06 am
Ah, makes sense Play. My guess is they’re going to sign one of the other non-tenders, but I don’t know if you’d consider that a big move or not...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on December 01, 2018, 12:46:39 pm
Ronald Torreyes, INF (non-tendered by Cubs)
Chicago acquired Torreyes in a trade with the Yankees last Wednesday before non-tendering him Friday. In four seasons, he's slashed .281/.310/.375.

Wait!! What?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 03, 2018, 06:15:31 pm
The more I think about a potential Haniger/Seager deal the better I like it from a Cubs perspective - if they weren't crying poverty of course.  Not only has Haniger been a very productive hitter but his D is outstanding in RF and he can even play an acceptable center, and his O numbers will likely improve if he's liberated from Safeco. A 4/100 deal for a "FA" Haniger in his prime sounds better than a 10/350 deal for Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 03, 2018, 06:28:25 pm
But again, the Mariners seem to be prioritizing getting money off the books for 2021 and beyond rather than having a cheap payroll immediately. If the Cubs were willing to take all of Seager's deal in 2021, I don't think requiring them to take Chatwood back would kill the deal. That would reduce the hit on the luxury tax to something like $7-$8 million. I think that's the more important number at this point. Then get them to take Kintzler or Duensing too and it becomes really manageable.

I don't think that money is the biggest obstacle to a Haniger/Seager deal. I think it's more likely that the Cubs don't have the players the Mariners would want (unless they really love Amaya or Happ).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 03, 2018, 06:36:48 pm
Based on how low they’ve been selling so far I think this is a fire sale more than a talent hunt for them. The priority is the long-term salary they’re dumping, not the players they’re getting back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 03, 2018, 07:59:20 pm
Not only has Haniger been a very productive hitter but his D is outstanding in RF and he can even play an acceptable center

What do you use to come up with your defensive assessments?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 03, 2018, 09:09:59 pm
Well apart from FP he looks pretty damn good in most of them.  You like DRS: 17 in the past two seasons in RF (despite missing substantial time last year and some starts n center). 6.1 UZR150 in in 2017. 2nd to Betts in DRS last season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 03, 2018, 09:30:25 pm
Toss an offer of Russell, Happ and Chatwood to the Ms for Haniger and Seager and see if they bite.  Almost surely not, but maybe the salary relied would tempt them a little.

Haniger is a pipe dream, so I hate getting too excited over him.  But he's basically a .900 OPS guy on the road the last two seasons, and guys who OPS .900 on the road with plus defense are pretty much MVP candidates most of the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 03, 2018, 09:55:50 pm
None of those numbers scream elite or outstanding defense.

DRS is my least favorite, but we can start there. Haniger 14 in 1976 career innings in RF and 17 over the 1800 or so innings. . Very few guys qualified in 2018, but Betts led the league with 20. In 2017 Betts had 31, Puig 18 and Heyward 18.

Of the more conventional advanced stats I like UZR/150 better. Haniger a career 3.2. Which is just a touch higher than average. Betts is 18.8, Heyward 13.  Cargo has a career 4.5.

What I really like is the Statcast OAA. Haniger was a -4 there and a -1 in catch probability added.

Haniger is a perfectly average RF, who you don’t want playing CF.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 03, 2018, 10:06:02 pm
Keep at it, by the law of averages one of these rants is going to be remotely convincing sooner or later.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 03, 2018, 10:12:13 pm
Toss an offer of Russell, Happ and Chatwood to the Ms for Haniger and Seager and see if they bite.  Almost surely not, but maybe the salary relied would tempt them a little.

I think you have to replace Russell with someone who has value. No one wants to give up anything to get him on their team right now. But yeah, Cubs should be all in on trying to get Haniger until he's traded or it's clear he's staying in Seattle. Getting him would come close to making up for not seriously pursuing Yelich last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 03, 2018, 10:17:17 pm
Keep at it, by the law of averages one of these rants is going to be remotely convincing sooner or later.

Your ability to judge rants is rivaled by your ability to judge defense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 05, 2018, 09:40:46 pm
"I do expect the #Cubs to do quite a bit this offseason." - @Ken_Rosenthal on the Goldschmidt trade's impact on the NL Central.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 06, 2018, 09:01:20 am
Recently non-tendered RHP Justin Hancock has signed a contract with a Japanese team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 06, 2018, 10:05:14 am
When the game began, as Davep can attest because he was there, players were positioned because they believed that was the best way to defend.   Today, we have computers tell us differently, and we have paychecks that cause us to rethink our approach.   The reason the MLB is concerned is because the two issues they are discussing...the other being attendance...are related.  The game has been become boring for many.  Defense has found a weapon, but the offense has not yet reciprocated.  The loft approach cannot equal the shift.  What can be done?  We dropped the height of the mound to help hitters.  What can we do to help hitters balance the shift?  Allow corked bats?  Re-define a checked swing to reduce K's? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on December 06, 2018, 10:56:55 am
Lower ticket and concession prices has helped attendance numbers - try that
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 11:03:44 am
It isn't just the shift though. 

Baseball has found that the best way to prevent runs is the strike out.  Pitchers are throwing harder and harder every year and facing hitters less which makes hitting more difficult.

Offenses have realized that the likely aren't stringing together 4 hits against mid-90's fastball and 90 mph sliders, so launch angle was born.  HR are the best way to score against modern pitchers and looking for your pitch to crush. 

All of this plus shifts has led to the modern 3 outcome and less action in the games.  How do you change it though?  Lowering the mound might help, but that just might spike HRs.  Playing around with the ball?  I have no clue.

Lower ticket and concession prices has helped attendance numbers - try that

I think making tanking less appealing at building teams would help.  The desire to pay amateurs less has led to tanking to being the way to build teams.  The worst place to be is a competitive, but not elite team.  Better teams, more exciting games.  Less blow outs will help.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 06, 2018, 11:23:31 am
So, discourage concentration of hard throwing pitchers on one team by expansion?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on December 06, 2018, 11:24:32 am
Please read this fangraphs post. It’s the opposite of what you usually find on that site. It’s a heartbreaking story that explains why, for at least one person, the Cubs keeping Addison Russell is a bad move.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-human-side-of-the-cubs-addison-russell-decision/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 11:34:35 am
So, discourage concentration of hard throwing pitchers on one team by expansion?

You have to add 5 or 6 teams.  Every team, but the Cubs, seems multiples of them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 06, 2018, 11:49:53 am

David Kaplan
@thekapman
I know the narratives that I read keep repeating that the Cubs won't be players for the big name players who are available this winter. My take? I'm not buying it. It's too damn quiet. They are in lockdown mode at the corner of Clark and Addison. Never count out Theo and Jed.

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
wait. you said you did not think they were getting Harper. So which is it, are they players for the big name hitters or not? There's only 2. (on paper)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 06, 2018, 12:33:40 pm
I believe that Theo is lying in the weeds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 01:00:20 pm
Please read this fangraphs post. It’s the opposite of what you usually find on that site. It’s a heartbreaking story that explains why, for at least one person, the Cubs keeping Addison Russell is a bad move.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-human-side-of-the-cubs-addison-russell-decision/

Stories like this are why I'd prefer Russell to be gone from the Cubs.  At the same time I'm not sure if just cutting players is really the best answer to helping solve the problem.  If Theo really is interested in doing something different I think the Cubs should be given space to work on it.  Hopefully it is real and not just a BS excuse to keep Addison on the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 01:00:43 pm
David Kaplan
@thekapman
I know the narratives that I read keep repeating that the Cubs won't be players for the big name players who are available this winter. My take? I'm not buying it. It's too damn quiet. They are in lockdown mode at the corner of Clark and Addison. Never count out Theo and Jed.

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
wait. you said you did not think they were getting Harper. So which is it, are they players for the big name hitters or not? There's only 2. (on paper)

Reading some of Kaplan's replies after those tweets, he says the Cubs won't get Harper/Machado, but will likely make trades.

I just don't see what the Cubs have to trade that is going to get them a difference-making player. Maybe if the price falls far enough on Realmuto, they can get him--then they'd have a big trade chip in Contreras to go out and get an outfielder or middle infielder. But other than that, they don't really have any options but to shop for bargains on the trade market too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 01:09:56 pm
I think this exchange is enlightening...

TheMoncadaArmada

You literally helped start that narrative Kap. Lol
        David Kaplan
        Good morning! After talking with a handful of MLB sources this weekend, I am starting to believe more than ever the Cubs will not be a factor for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. The only way that changes is if Theo and Jed and Co. are able to move serious money off the books. 11/4/18


David Kaplan
You are absolutely right. But as things have gone along I just find it hard to believe that with the Cubs window to win wide open right now that Theo and Jed won't find a way. When I tweeted that I was listening to a number of national analysts and agents.

I firmly believe that a lot of the Cubs have no money to spend comes from outside the org.  Some of it maybe the Cubs letting expectations get managed in case the Phillies do something stupid, but for the most part I don't think anyone has a clue what the Cubs are up to.  I have a hard time seeing how the Cubs get Realmuto without Contreras being in the deal.  I don't think Happ has that much more value than somebody like Nimmo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 01:28:25 pm
Realmuto has half the years of control that Contreras has. Realmuto's value is nowhere close to Contreras. Two bad months didn't hurt Contreras' value that much.

If/when Realmuto is traded, I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how little it takes to get him. I think teams are done giving potential star prospects/young players for guys with only a year or two of control left. The centerpiece of the deal will be a Happ/Nimmo type.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 01:45:05 pm
I think the answer to this question is what the anlytics people think. 

If you look at Baseball Prospectus with framing and their new offensive stat. 

Realmuto has the last 3 years has been 2.4, 4.5, 4.3 WAR player.  Contreras has been 1.5, 2.5, 0.6 WAR.

Control is important, but for the Cubs the the better player is more important than control.  Theo said as much when he mentioned getting a better player and giving up control.  If the Cubs analytics are close to BP it really isn't a hard choice, especially with Amaya possibly being ready to play 3 years from now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 02:34:20 pm
Coaching staff changes/additions:

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Tommy Hottovy named pitching coach, Borzello adds associate pitching coach to his title, Termell Sledge is assistant hitting coach, Chris Denorfia is quality assurance coach and Brandon Hyde will return as bench coach, pending interview with Baltimore
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 03:17:27 pm
I don't think the Marlins would trade Realmuto for Contreras straight up, nor should they.  Nor would most GMs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 03:25:42 pm
The hits just keep on comin'.


Quote

Patrick Mooney

Verified account

@PJ_Mooney
39m39 minutes ago
MoreTheo Epstein says Brandon Morrow may not be available by Opening Day 2019 after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his elbow in early November. The Cubs are obviously looking for more bullpen help this winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 06, 2018, 03:39:48 pm
If he's only going to be available for half a season again, I prefer it to be the second half.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 03:47:58 pm
Theo doing some big-time expectations-lowering today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 06, 2018, 03:47:59 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dtw427nXQAA2nUq.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 04:15:45 pm
I wonder if that will put Zach Britton in play, with the Yankees he was much better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 04:47:14 pm
How about going out and getting a healthy reliever this time? That was the problem with Morrow, so why would they sign a guy who just missed half a season? No on Britton, no on Miller.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 04:59:13 pm
How about going out and getting a healthy reliever this time? That was the problem with Morrow, so why would they sign a guy who just missed half a season? No on Britton, no on Miller.

Somebody like Chavez, you mean?

The problem is the Cubs are apparently standing on a corner holding out their hat for change. And good healthy relievers actually worth having are expensive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on December 06, 2018, 05:26:50 pm
Does Britton have a history of injury, or just one isolated, recent incident?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 05:29:00 pm
Well I guess it is good that Kintzler is heathly then. The list of cheap, healthy available value closers is small.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on December 06, 2018, 05:35:09 pm
What exactly is the deal with the cubs crying poor? this seems really strange for a team with bumper attendence 3-4 years in a row, a WS championship... but a full aversion to going past the soft cap.

If the window is now... get it done now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 05:47:21 pm
Well I guess it is good that Kintzler is heathly then. The list of cheap, healthy available value closers is small.

Britton (and Miller) won’t exactly be cheap either. He might get a short contract, but his AAV is going to be in the same neighborhood as more durable non-Kimbrel closers like Robertson and Famiilia.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 06, 2018, 05:55:46 pm
Please read this fangraphs post. It’s the opposite of what you usually find on that site. It’s a heartbreaking story that explains why, for at least one person, the Cubs keeping Addison Russell is a bad move.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-human-side-of-the-cubs-addison-russell-decision/

To me the only heartbreaking thing about this is the number of people who are eager to condemn Russell, not only without a trial, but without even hearing sufficient allegations to support a criminal charge being filed.

It is not just a question of whether he did or did not do "it," but instead a matter of no actual "it" having been alleged.

Again, I am NOT attacking his ex as a "gold digger", or pointing out that her allegations lack corroboration, or that she has never been subjected to cross-examination, but instead simply pointing out that if every word of what she says is true, there are multiple possibilities which would include absolutely no criminal behavior on the part of Russell.

THAT is what is heartbreaking here -- that some of us are so willing to condemn men that screw proof, we don't even really need actual allegations.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 06, 2018, 06:01:05 pm
Britton (and Miller) won’t exactly be cheap either. He might get a short contract, but his AAV is going to be in the same neighborhood as more durable non-Kimbrel closers like Robertson and Famiilia.

Robertson wants to be in the Northeast according to rumors and Famila has an injury history and domestic violence suspension.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 06, 2018, 06:22:46 pm
Robertson wants to be in the Northeast according to rumors and Famila has an injury history and domestic violence suspension.
When has domestic violence stopped the Cubs?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 06, 2018, 06:50:06 pm
Okay, scratch Familia--I had completely forgotten about his history (it's not hard to overlook someone who just played for the Mets and A's).

But I highly doubt that Robertson would refuse to consider the Cubs just because he prefers to play in the Northeast. There's also Joakim Soria, who has plenty of closing experience (including 16 saves last year) and has two consecutive years of almost 2 fWAR. And if you want to take a chance on a rebound candidate, why not try Cody Allen, who has at least been healthy?

There's also the trade market. Will Smith almost certainly will be traded. And as the Goldschmidt trade showed, there's a limit on the quality of return for a one year player. Archie Bradley is another late inning option if the Cubs want to try to find a multi-year solution, though he'd cost a lot in a trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 07:04:50 pm
I would be on board with taking a flyer on Allen. If we’re truly going to act like the Royals or Marlins that sort of move may be about as potentially positive as we can muster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 06, 2018, 07:07:33 pm
What exactly is the deal with the cubs crying poor? this seems really strange for a team with bumper attendence 3-4 years in a row, a WS championship... but a full aversion to going past the soft cap.

If the window is now... get it done now.

I think it is unwise to reach any firm conclusions about the Cubs' intentions or limitations at this point of the off-season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 06, 2018, 07:14:59 pm
Please read this fangraphs post. It’s the opposite of what you usually find on that site. It’s a heartbreaking story that explains why, for at least one person, the Cubs keeping Addison Russell is a bad move.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-human-side-of-the-cubs-addison-russell-decision/

That really does speak to the hidden, insidious costs of decisions like keeping Russell around.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 06, 2018, 10:23:15 pm
I think it is unwise to reach any firm conclusions about the Cubs' intentions or limitations at this point of the off-season.

It is also unwise to dismiss the long term ramifications of what is called a "soft cap".  It is true that going over the cap two years in a row results in a relatively small amount of luxury tax, and a loss of about 10 spots in the draft, but also results in a substantial curtailment of money available to sign IFAs, which IS a serious impediment to long term competition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on December 07, 2018, 01:07:41 am
The Mob Mentality rush to justice is a scary thing.  Note to self:  don't ever get accused of anything.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 07, 2018, 08:13:22 am
Is it a rush to judgement when you get suspended and admit it?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 07, 2018, 08:24:24 am
Is it a rush to judgement when you get suspended and admit it?


It can be.

First what is the "it"?

Next, there are LOTS of people who simply decide to accept a punishment without a challenge AND without having done anything wrong.

I strongly suspect that the Cubs consulted with Russell's ex before deciding to tender and offer.  If she was persuaded to accept this, so long as Russell accepted his suspension or otherwise did not challenge her story, but might have made other claims if he did challenge, does Russell's decision mean he did something wrong, or merely that he made a perfectly rational decision that in the current environment, even if the only proof of her claim was what she would claim and there was NOTHING else to support any of it and even if the claim was an utter fabrication.... he might end up completely screwed and acquiescence is the better choice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 07, 2018, 08:55:17 am

Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
So Brandon Morrow underwent elbow surgery on Nov. 6, and three weeks later the Cubs still let Jesse Chavez sign a two-year, $8 million deal with Texas. Kind of telling re: Theo's financial flexibility this winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 07, 2018, 09:25:12 am
Or they didn't want to commit 2 years to a 35 year old reliever.

If money is that tight spending $20 million on Hamels is an odd choice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on December 07, 2018, 10:27:18 am
That really does speak to the hidden, insidious costs of decisions like keeping Russell around.

It should be noted that, for as infrequently as FanGraphs has posts like this, they are awash in this kind of content compared to other sports media outlets. A significant reason for this is their recent push to hire non-male writers. In an industry that is about as male and white as you can get, major kudos to FG on this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 07, 2018, 11:17:22 am
Mark Gonzales says the Cubs are interested in Joakim Soria:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-joakim-soria-20181206-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 07, 2018, 06:31:13 pm
Yeah, that sounds about right.

Even before the Cubs were in PTR mode, Theo has always seemed temperamentally inclined to try and do the bullpen on the cheap.  Probably not unfair to suggest that he's been slow to acknowledge or recognize the tantamount importance the bullpen has taken on in modern baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 07, 2018, 06:44:24 pm
How do we know Soria is going to cheap? 

The Rockies spending a crap ton of money on the bullpen worked out well for them....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 07, 2018, 06:51:06 pm
Soria has the 10th highest fWAR and 5th best FIP among major league relievers over the last two years. He's a good target, especially if he can be signed for a reasonable price.

Sign Soria, trade for one of the Giants' lefties (preferably Smith, but Watson is good too). Should be a relatively affordable way to address the bullpen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 07, 2018, 07:02:41 pm
If age was the issue with Chavez, why isn't it with Soria? 

Soria is another guy who's a ticking time bomb - he's going to be on the downward slide soon enough, though maybe you're lucky and avoid it if you sign him to a 1-year deal (which I don't expect him to take).  He's not a dominating pitcher but as he is (or was), he's solid.  If he's cheap enough, fine - but like most FAs, he's going to get paid based on past performance and not future projection.  I'd rather take a flyer on Cody Allen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 07, 2018, 07:04:29 pm
Trevor Rosenthal would have been nice.

I played golf with a dude one time who claimed to be related to him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 07, 2018, 08:23:18 pm
Heyman’s most recent club-by-club roundup links Soria to about 6 or so clubs. Seems like Soria might land just about anywhere.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 08, 2018, 07:46:27 pm
Schwarber & Quintana for Kluber.  Who says no?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 08, 2018, 07:47:43 pm
What is his contract status?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 08, 2018, 07:51:34 pm
AFAIK signed for next year with team options for 20 and 21.


Edit: $17.5 and $18 million options (club) for 20-21.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 08, 2018, 07:55:34 pm
Schwarber & Quintana for Kluber.  Who says no?
Cleveland.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 08, 2018, 08:13:16 pm
Cleveland has no interest in Quintana. They're only trading Kluber/Bauer because they want to reduce their payroll. Quintana and Schwarber combined will be making almost as much as Kluber.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 08, 2018, 08:28:43 pm
They are still trying to win, though, and that gives them two pieces for slightly less than the price of 1.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 08, 2018, 08:33:29 pm
But those two pieces combined are worth less than Kluber. He's obviously one of the top 4 starters in baseball over the past 5 years (with Scherzer, Kershaw, and Sale). Schwarber is a platoon outfielder, and Quintana's value has taken a huge hit in the last year--he's nowhere close to a top 15 or so starter anymore.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 08, 2018, 08:38:36 pm
Heh heh, deeg, if you can somehow trick Cleveland into swallowing that dream deal, that would obviously be too ridiculously good to be true. 

Of course, even if you did get that implausibly done, Kluber would then probably get hurt right away or something. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 08, 2018, 08:42:39 pm
Hey, I think they'd say no too.  But this has been such a boring offseason that I'm desperate for something to talk about.

How about Schwarber, Alzolay and Happ?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 08, 2018, 08:46:56 pm
I'd hate to trade Schwarber.

Hate it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 08, 2018, 08:53:43 pm
I know we need an offensive upgrade but I'd still be happy with Contreras,Rizzo,Baez,Bryant,Schwarber,and Happ.

Zobrist is better suited in a utility role at this point and we're stuck with Heyward so our upgrades could come in CF,RF,or 2nd.

If we could find a leadoff man out of those spots and another table setter I'd be more than happy.

We need a closer too.

Ill go ahead and admit that I wouldnt give him a ton but Im game for giving Billy Hamilton a chance.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 08, 2018, 08:55:36 pm
How about Schwarber, Alzolay and Happ?

That might get them interested.

The Cubs need hitters more than pitchers, though. The offense is dysfunctional, they're not winning anything next year if they fail to add a good hitter or two.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 08, 2018, 08:57:00 pm
Harper 10/350 with opt outs, Brantley 5/80 or McCutcheon 3/45?  Go.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 08, 2018, 09:08:12 pm
Harper but I bet we'd regret it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 08, 2018, 09:10:36 pm
We need more than Harper and Im afraid it takes all we've got to sign him thus leaving us still with holes to fill.

He's another K'ing,all or nothing,power hitter.

We've got enough of those.

We need table setters and relievers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 08, 2018, 10:21:31 pm
Harper 10/350 with opt outs, Brantley 5/80 or McCutcheon 3/45?  Go.

Harper easily. But the Cubs aren't spending that much.

Of the other two, I like Brantley more as a player at this point...and I think their salaries will end up much closer than that.

I'm still hoping they find a way to trade for Haniger, but I'm prepared to be just as disappointed as I was when they didn't really even try for Yelich last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 08, 2018, 10:40:26 pm
Reading other boards and comments on ESPN and listening to ESPN radio, I think other teams value Schwarber, Russell, Happ, even Quintana, much more than this board does.  Much more.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 08, 2018, 11:45:40 pm
Agreed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 12:40:15 am
Just a friendly reminder that the Cubs had the 10th best K% as a team and the 22nd worst ISO in the league.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 12:47:33 am
Harper, Brantley and well back McCutchen.

I wouldn’t trade for Schwarber for Kluber. The rotation is fine as is and trading Schwarber just means you have to find another hitter to replace him.   Kluber would be an upgrade to the rotation, but the offense would be harmed more.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 09, 2018, 08:19:12 am
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20181208/rozner-if-epstein-wanted-maddon-out-hed-already-be-gone

Quote
With the winter meetings about to break out in full force, get ready for some sizzling Joe Maddon takes from Las Vegas

Most will focus around the way Theo Epstein is trying force Maddon out of a job as he enters the final year of his Cubs contract..

Barry Rozner offers a lot of speculation backed up by very few facts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 09, 2018, 09:05:37 am
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20181208/rozner-if-epstein-wanted-maddon-out-hed-already-be-gone

Barry Rozner offers a lot of speculation backed up by very few facts.

Actually, the article's substance says the opposite of the intro.  I never have cared for Rozner and there is nothing new or profound in this piece, but I can't really find much with which to disagree.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on December 09, 2018, 09:53:15 am
I would hate to give Brantley 5 years.

I would hate to give McCutchen 3 years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on December 09, 2018, 10:51:21 am
better to pay Brantley more for 2 years then give him a 5 year contract. pretty sure in cleveland they now call all injuries "the brantley".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on December 09, 2018, 10:52:22 am
What does markakis want? he might be a decent fit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 09, 2018, 11:23:57 am
Markakis is a big no for me. He’s been good enough to be an average regular just twice in the last 6 seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 11:34:20 am
For the back up catcher I wonder if the Dbacks would have an interest in Avila for Kintzler swap. Kintzler makes $900,000 more, but it would free up the catching position for Kelly and Ryan for them. For the Cubs it gives them a lefty backup that can throw and his framing was better last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 09, 2018, 01:06:33 pm
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Several teams have inquired on Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber but they’ve all gotten the same response from #Cubs. No, he’s not available


I can't imagine the front office telling other teams that Schwarber isn't available. I assume most teams are looking to buy low...but if they're not, this front office would at least discuss him with other teams.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 09, 2018, 01:10:32 pm
I agree.  It's rather puzzling that they would be willing to discuss Bryant but not Schwarber.  Huh?  I'm sure as br suggests that nobody is willing to give us a good player in exchange.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 01:52:27 pm
Or Bryant wasn’t really available either...

I think the problem with trading Schwarber is that if you are looking to improve the offense trading him means getting two impact hitters this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 09, 2018, 01:58:09 pm
Of course, you also have to consider the source. I've found Nightengale to be about the least reliable of any of the national writers who are worth following...he's no Rosenthal or Passan, or even Heyman. I think I read something in the last couple of years that indicated that Nightengale is mainly plugged in to old school baseball guys who may still have special assistant or scouting positions, but aren't really intimately involved with the day-to-day operations of a modern front office.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 09, 2018, 02:41:34 pm
Schwarber can still improve and Im still not sure he's not the best hitter we've got.

His stats at the start of his career are very similar to Rizzo's.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 09, 2018, 03:14:25 pm
Of course, you also have to consider the source. I've found Nightengale to be about the least reliable of any of the national writers who are worth following...he's no Rosenthal or Passan, or even Heyman. I think I read something in the last couple of years that indicated that Nightengale is mainly plugged in to old school baseball guys who may still have special assistant or scouting positions, but aren't really intimately involved with the day-to-day operations of a modern front office.

When Nightengale is on Buster’s podcast, it is pretty obvious that Buster has very high regard for Nightengale and his insights. Not just that he has Nightengale on the show periodically, but also the tone from Buster. My perspective is that Nightengale still among the best. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 09, 2018, 03:23:12 pm
For the back up catcher I wonder if the Dbacks would have an interest in Avila for Kintzler swap. Kintzler makes $900,000 more, but it would free up the catching position for Kelly and Ryan for them. For the Cubs it gives them a lefty backup that can throw and his framing was better last year.

That would make a lot of sense. Kelly and Murphy would be a logical tandem—-and Avila odd man out with a big contract. Could see Cubs reacquiring him for a contract back.

Alternatively, if Jays interested in a Chatwood-Martin swap, could see that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 09, 2018, 03:49:53 pm
Of course Schwarber isn't unavailable.  He's just not being given away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 09, 2018, 04:09:49 pm
When Nightengale is on Buster’s podcast, it is pretty obvious that Buster has very high regard for Nightengale and his insights. Not just that he has Nightengale on the show periodically, but also the tone from Buster. My perspective is that Nightengale still among the best. 

All I know is that I've unfollowed him on Twitter several times over the years because he occasionally reports transactions as done that never happen (I ultimately re-follow him at the start of every offseason/trade deadline). He might still be one of the best--if there are 100 national reporters throwing rumors out there, he's probably top 10 or so...but there are only a handful that are really good at it (Rosenthal, Passan, Sherman, Heyman, Olney, Morosi (when he's not focused on other sports)).

For the back up catcher I wonder if the Dbacks would have an interest in Avila for Kintzler swap. Kintzler makes $900,000 more, but it would free up the catching position for Kelly and Ryan for them. For the Cubs it gives them a lefty backup that can throw and his framing was better last year.

Even if his framing numbers were better last year, hasn't he had a reputation for being a butcher in that department for a while?

I had kind of the same idea with Jason Castro a week or two ago (I think I posted it here)...Mitch Garver was strong his his 300 PA last year, and Willians Astudillo is a sensation (at least in Jeff Sullivan's mind) and needs somewhere to play. So that makes Castro an $8 million third catcher. Kintzler has a positive history in Minnesota; adding Duensing in too is basically even money. And Castro seems to have that leader/good defender reputation that the Cubs are looking for.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 09, 2018, 04:29:08 pm
Great framer no doubt but boy, he is one bad hitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 09, 2018, 04:29:09 pm
Harper 10/350 with opt outs, Brantley 5/80 or McCutcheon 3/45?  Go.

Harper 3/135.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 09, 2018, 04:32:43 pm
I would hate to give Brantley 5 years.

I would hate to give McCutchen 3 years.

You could seriously limit the risk with McCutchen by including vesting options for the 2nd and 3rd years of 500 PA for the prior year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 09, 2018, 04:35:51 pm
How could you do that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 09, 2018, 04:42:49 pm
How could you do that?

I’m assuming some sort of blackmail or extortion scheme.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 09, 2018, 04:43:27 pm
Precisely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 09, 2018, 07:20:04 pm
How could you do that?

It would likely involve paying a premium for the first year, but you would do it simply by persuading the player to agree, which usually involves making an offer which is more attractive than competing offers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 09, 2018, 07:30:16 pm
If the Theocracy views the window of opportunity as NOW, and believes the window may likely contract after 2019, it makes sense to pay a premium for 2019.

It could be done... IF the Theocracy want to do it.

I would like to see such an overpay approach for three yeas of Harper.  I am indifferent on McCutcheon.  The McCutcheon of past years would have been a nice 2019 leadoff hitter.  The McCutcheon of past years, however, is not what will be on the field in 2019.

McCutcheon in 2018 at age 31 had an OPS+ 16 points below his career average, and in 2017 it was 11 points below his career average, and in 2016 it was 30 points below his career OPS+ average.  His trendline is not good, and at age 32 it is unlikely to get better.  His days of .400 OBP and 20+ steals a season are long gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 09, 2018, 07:45:10 pm
Regardless, I would rather have McCutcheon for 3 years at 15 per year than Harper for 10 years at 35 million or so per year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 09, 2018, 07:55:07 pm
I think I would take Harper at that price.

Basically it comes down to his age (he'd be 36 in the final year of that deal), the fact that his main skill set (plate discipline, scary power) should age well, and the fact that by 2028, a $35 million salary will likely be a 5th starter or utility infielder.  Let's face it, the Rickettses have more money than God already, and the Cubs are a mint evn before their new TV deal kicks in. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 09, 2018, 08:59:57 pm
The issue isn't the money, at least directly.  The issue is the lost IFA money and reduced draft position.  I do not wish to have to go through another 4 year total rebuild to get back to where we are now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 09:23:47 pm
The 10 spots in the draft will hurt the Cubs with getting assists to trade, but baring a Mike Trout falling the Cubs aren’t getting elite talent in the draft that will prevent a rebuild.

The IFA harp cap and the ability to trade for a large percentage of the cap means the penalties won’t limit them from getting talent. The question is how much money and resources do you want to divert from the major league team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 09, 2018, 09:33:17 pm
.... I do not wish to have to go through another 4 year total rebuild to get back to where we are now.

I wonder if that can be avoided?  The Cubs may need to go with the guys they've got, and then return to rebuild mode. 

Not sure how long the current window is going to last. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 09, 2018, 09:49:45 pm
Plesac still peddling the Harper to the Cubs narrative, this time around a shorter deal. Though if we really are dealing with PTR as the stumbling block hard to see how that helps.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 09, 2018, 09:50:07 pm
The 10 spots in the draft will hurt the Cubs with getting assists to trade, but baring a Mike Trout falling the Cubs aren’t getting elite talent in the draft that will prevent a rebuild.

The IFA harp cap and the ability to trade for a large percentage of the cap means the penalties won’t limit them from getting talent. The question is how much money and resources do you want to divert from the major league team.

If they lose IFA money because of the salary cap, are they allowed to trade for more?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 09, 2018, 09:58:29 pm
Yes. It will be 75% of the total this year and drop to 60% in subsequent years.

To answer Craig without changes to the CBA I don’t think you can avoid a rebuild without some serious luck in the draft or getting some studs in IFA. Signing Harper and Bryant long term avoids the rebuild for a long time though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 10, 2018, 04:39:01 pm
A lot of the twitter buzz today seems to be about Zobrist being moved. On one level I guess that’s not surprising as he’s probably not someone you’d have to add talent to in order to dump the salary. But boy, sure seems like that’s a guy who’d actually help you win games in 2019. Obviously a very methodical and professional hitter and a good clubhouse guy - weren’t we looking for more of those?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 10, 2018, 04:50:36 pm
A lot of the twitter buzz today seems to be about Zobrist being moved. On one level I guess that’s not surprising as he’s probably not someone you’d have to add talent to in order to dump the salary. But boy, sure seems like that’s a guy who’d actually help you win games in 2019. Obviously a very methodical and professional hitter and a good clubhouse guy - weren’t we looking for more of those?

That's extraordinarily surprising. Sources?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 10, 2018, 04:52:20 pm
It seems that a lot of it came from a single source in Sharma's most recent article.  The Cubs trade Zobrist for prospects, saving $14 million in AAV  ($12.5 million in salary).  I'm not sure he'd bring a lot back in trade and unless you are counting on a lot of regression, I'm not sure it makes the Cubs better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 10, 2018, 05:06:59 pm
I don’t see any way it makes the Cubs better. It would just be a straight PTR salary dump.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 10, 2018, 05:14:33 pm
If they can get rid of 14 million in salary, that might make it easier to sign another free agent without getting into luxury tax territory.  And as Branch Rickey used to say, it is much better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.  And they didn't even have long term contracts in those days.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 10, 2018, 05:15:44 pm
Zobrist was pretty bad in 2017, will be 38 in May, and is forced to be a part time player at this point to stay healthy. I'm not sure if it'll make them better or not...but it wouldn't be that surprising if the Cubs thought a permanent decline was right around the corner.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 10, 2018, 05:42:23 pm
Sure, it’s conceivable dumping Z would make the Cubs “better” if it allows a bigger move (that works out). But in and of itself, hard to see how the roster is better without him than with him. At his current contract level he’s a bargain, which is why he’s dumpable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on December 10, 2018, 09:03:26 pm
What is PTR? Is this a deeg being deeg thing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 10, 2018, 09:12:06 pm
That’s as old as the Ricketts ownership.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 10, 2018, 09:18:08 pm
The Poor Tom Ricketts thing is stupid after 2016 and especially with the Cubs sitting above a $200 million payroll.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:20:01 pm
GM Jed Hoyer again stresses that the Cubs are focusing more on internal improvements than external solutions: "I’ve never said this before, but I’ve never wanted a season to start quicker. I just feel like the way that the season ended, it left such a bitter taste in our mouths."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:20:28 pm
“Nothing is imminent” - Jed Hoyer #CubsTalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:20:53 pm
Q: Was today more about free agents or trades?  “Prob 50/50” - Jed Hoyer.  #CubsTalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:22:14 pm
“The biggest improvements are going to be from within.”  - Jed Hoyer right now in Vegas #CubsTalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:23:36 pm
Jed Hoyer, on the need for certain leadership: "We had that in ’15, ’16, ’17. We were lacking that last year.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 10, 2018, 09:24:13 pm
“The biggest improvements are going to be from within.”  - Jed Hoyer right now in Vegas #CubsTalk

A healthy Bryant is about 5 WAR all by himself.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:25:03 pm
“Has anything changed [with the Cubs’ financial flexibility]? It remains unclear, but on the flip side, rumblings also exist that the Ricketts family has signed off on the possibility of a big expenditure for a star like Harper.”--Levine
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 10, 2018, 09:26:43 pm
Every winter, without fail, Kyle Schwarber's name pops up in trade rumors. Yet the Cubs maintain they're *buying* Schwarber stock, not selling it.

Hoyer: "Nothing's changed. I think we really believe in him. He's an incredibly gifted hitter and we fully believe in the makeup."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 10, 2018, 10:03:06 pm
“The biggest improvements are going to be from within.”  - Jed Hoyer right now in Vegas #CubsTalk

If this front office really believes "the biggest improvements are going to be from within" in 2019, this team will be lucky to win 85 next year. The offense is dysfunctional and less than the sum of its parts...if the biggest position player changes are a new backup catcher and Bote over La Stella, this won't be a playoff team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 11, 2018, 08:23:46 am
If Quintana, Darvish and Bryant all return to their pre-2018 performance levels, the biggest improvements may well come from within, and it would be easy to see the team not only in the playoffs, but winning the WS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on December 11, 2018, 09:07:34 am
Have the Cubs signed Harper yet?  I heard he is having a big party at his place in LV and Bryant invited Tom, Theo and Jed to hang out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 11, 2018, 09:08:41 am
If Quintana, Darvish and Bryant all return to their pre-2018 performance levels, the biggest improvements may well come from within, and it would be easy to see the team not only in the playoffs, but winning the WS.

Especially if you add Contreras to that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 11, 2018, 09:16:14 am
Especially if you add Contreras to that.

Yes, but Contreras really had not been in the majors long enough before last year to establish a meaningful baseline.  If you are looking for all of the players where I would expect a significant improvement in 2019, I would also add Schwarber, Russell and Baez.  Baez took a big step forward in 2018.  I actually expect roughly comparable further improvement in 2019.

Now, all of that said, I would STILL like to see them make Harper a short term offer which was so good he simply could not pass it by.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 11, 2018, 10:55:20 am
Cubs are hiring Brad Mills for Hottovy's old position.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 11, 2018, 12:38:54 pm
"The Cubs and Cardinals are among the other teams not engaged in a pursuit of Harper," sources told @Ken_Rosenthal.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on December 11, 2018, 01:10:56 pm
right now it looks like Harper will end up in Philly, and Machado in NY.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 11, 2018, 01:45:04 pm
right now

Is the key phrase. 

If I was betting I'd take the field.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 11, 2018, 02:47:26 pm
Had not realized extent of this, but Zobrist has total of ONE homer in 256 PAs swinging from right side last two seasons combined.

Seems like his power has disappeared from the right side. So, think if he’s going to get significant starts in the OF in 2019, has to be against righties—-and that perhaps means that if Cubs bring in a OF bat, it should be a righty bat. One reason I liked McCutchen here but that’s off the table now.

For me, the guy to deal is Happ. Five years of control, so figures to be attractive to rebuilding clubs. Have followed him since Cape Cod League, but wonder how he can correct all the swings-and-misses on pitches inside the strike zone.

Probably easier to find a corner righty bat than a CF bat to replace Happ—-and perhaps that means much more of Heyward in CF.

Average OPS of CFers typically 30-35 points lower than RFers, so Heyward’s bat plays better there. Maybe just have to sacrifice some defense. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chiman on December 11, 2018, 05:54:38 pm
Mills is a good get for the Cubs as he will be a very good pitching coach in the near future.
He was one of the best pitching coaches in the Mariners system. He is very analytical and can see tweeks/ adjustments that a pitcher needs to be successful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 11, 2018, 07:08:15 pm
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/orioles-close-to-hiring-brandon-hyde-as-manager.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 11, 2018, 07:19:11 pm
Not sure that will ultimately be a great career move for Hyde. He had a good shot at the Cubs job next year, and he almost certainly could’ve found a better situation than Baltimore in a year. But I guess you have to take the job when offered.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 11, 2018, 07:31:04 pm
Orioles beat writer Roch Kubatko says Hyde hasn’t been hired:

Elias said no decision made on manager, no offer made and probably no hire here. Called report on Hyde, shown on TV in suite, “premature”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 11, 2018, 07:37:00 pm
I anything ever certain with the Orioles?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 11, 2018, 07:42:54 pm
Seems like a foregone conclusion on Twitter that if Hyde leaves, David Ross will become the bench coach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 11, 2018, 07:57:17 pm
Seems like a foregone conclusion on Twitter that if Hyde leaves, David Ross will become the bench coach.

Even though it has not been confirmed, everybody and their brother seems convinced that Hyde will be hired by the Orioles. As to who would succeed him as bench coach, the last I checked Twitter (and those tweeting) don't get a vote.  It does seem like a plausible theory though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 11, 2018, 08:52:13 pm
In case you missed it, this is an interesting interview with Joe Maddon.

https://www.facebook.com/NBCSChicago/videos/514757562363999?sfns=1
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 11, 2018, 10:10:30 pm
Obviously, no one outside the Harper camp and the front office really knows what’s going on. But I feel pretty confident about a few things:

1. No way in hell Harper signs for the White Sox.
2. Harper would genuinely like to play for the Cubs.
3. #2 doesn’t matter much as to where he’ll actually go if the money isn’t close to a wash.

I’d be betting on the Dodgers at this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 11, 2018, 10:19:27 pm
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25512875/joe-maddon-chicago-cubs-manager-looks-improve-entering-pivotal-season

Pajama parties aren't enough.  Who woulda thought?

I really want a transcript of exit meetings.  Who was working on that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 12, 2018, 01:55:08 am
Lot of talk about Cubs looking for veteran clubhouse leadership.

Mentioned couple weeks ago of maybe trading for Russell Martin? Jays actually had Martin manage their final game of the season in 2018. Think Cubs pursued him last free agency a few years ago.

Of course, Martin is now a salary dump for Jays. But, here’s how Jays can trade Martin and, instead of paying down his salary, instead, they can GET MONEY BACK!

Trade him for Chatwood. Chatwood owed $25.5 (two years) and Martin owed $20 (one year). So, Cubs send Jays some money.

Cubs also get rid of Chatwood’s $12.67 luxury tax hit for 2020, while adding only an additional $3.8 AAV in 2019 (Martin 2019 AAV is $16.4 compared to Chatwood 12.67). Heck, Cubs might be close to adding that amount if sign a FA catcher instead.

Of course, this only works if Jays prefer Chatwood over just sending $16 or so cash to somebody to take back Martin and adding a Type C prospect or whatever. Maybe they wouldn’t. The 2020 luxury tax hit with Chatwood is probably irrelevant for Jays—-only the cash parity matters, I would think.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on December 12, 2018, 09:09:23 am
Orioles beat writer Roch Kubatko says Hyde hasn’t been hired:

Elias said no decision made on manager, no offer made and probably no hire here. Called report on Hyde, shown on TV in suite, “premature”
Maybe Hyde failed his physical.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 12, 2018, 02:48:53 pm
Jesse Rogers

Verified account
 
@ESPNChiCubs
 14m14 minutes ago
More
Btw, Don’t know where Cubs are with a new bench coach but Raul Ibanez is one early name I’ve heard to consider. (Besides Ross of course)

0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Rogers said on the radio a reliever signing might happen tonight. Smaller move.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 12, 2018, 04:45:02 pm
Listening to Jesse Rogers on ESPN Chicago, he says he’s heard that the Cubs could make a move later today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 12, 2018, 05:26:52 pm
A salary dump, or did the dig behind the couch cushions prove more lucrative than expected?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 12, 2018, 05:31:41 pm
His speculation was that they’d add a reliever.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 12, 2018, 06:28:03 pm
Maybe it’s Tulo. He fits their current budgetary demands.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 12, 2018, 06:30:06 pm
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess a trade centered around Chatwood for Kipnis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 12, 2018, 07:26:01 pm
Mark Gonzales just tweeted that the Cubs are unlikely to make a move at the Winter Meetings according to Hoyer.

Such a boring offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 12, 2018, 07:34:04 pm
They could at least DFA somebody.    I'm willing to nominate a couple.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 12, 2018, 07:54:54 pm
The latest on A. Russell from agent Scott Boras: "Addison (Russell) is well into working with local groups he is well into his therapy. This process has really been educational and defining for him."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on December 12, 2018, 08:00:06 pm
Well, that’s an objective and independent source.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 12, 2018, 08:01:24 pm
In a related story, Scott Boras has begun taking his **** out and showing it to young girls on local merry-go-rounds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 12, 2018, 08:11:16 pm
Smh...

If Addison wins a gold glove and hits 20 HRs next year you'll never hear a word mentioned about his problems here again.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 12, 2018, 08:26:34 pm
Gonna have to put Joe out begging on State Street with a bigger hat next time, I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 12, 2018, 08:27:18 pm
Kris Bryant, who lives in Las Vegas, visited with Cubs officials in their hotel suite this afternoon.

Did Bryant ask what's going on with Bryce Harper or vice versa?

"He's got a pretty direct source," GM Jed Hoyer said.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 12, 2018, 08:36:32 pm
Smh...

If Addison wins a gold glove and hits 20 HRs next year you'll never hear a word mentioned about his problems here again.

I'm pretty sure you're the only one here who is willing to ignore criminal behavior if a player is good at baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 12, 2018, 08:59:27 pm
Im not their father or their maker so no I dont care.

Just like Ive said before I didnt hear any of this when Aroldis Chapman won us a world series.

Im pretty sure Addison never got charged with anything "criminal" either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 13, 2018, 09:15:41 am
Bruce Levine

 
@MLBBruceLevine
 33m33 minutes ago
More
According to sources the Cubs checked in with former Cub Mark DeRosa about vacant bench coach job . Does not appear David Ross who works for the team will take it. Both have nice broadcast deals .

DeRosa seemed to be a no on MLB Network last night.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 13, 2018, 09:29:24 am
Wasn't one of Ross' reasons for retiring to spend more home time with family?  If so, broadcast gigs cut into that far less than 50% of games away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 13, 2018, 03:54:00 pm
Jeff Fletcher @JeffFletcherOCR
Source: the #Angels are sending LHP Conor Lilis-White to the Cubs to complete the Tommy La Stella trade.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lillis000con

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa876096&position=P
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 13, 2018, 04:01:25 pm
Move him on to the Blue Jays for Martin.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 13, 2018, 04:04:43 pm
Conor Lillis-White:  Canadian for "Zac Rosscup"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 13, 2018, 04:08:45 pm
Which is still more than I was expecting in return for a 1 tool player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 13, 2018, 04:31:54 pm
Tall “pitch downhill” high 80s lefty with a sweeping curve. Not a top 20 guy for them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 13, 2018, 04:44:29 pm
Conor Lillis-White:  Canadian for "Zac Rosscup" "Sean Marshall"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 13, 2018, 04:55:54 pm
If he performs the way Sean Marshall did while a Cub, I will take that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 13, 2018, 05:02:29 pm
If nothing else, he seems to have a decent strike out record.  Too many walks to be comfortable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 13, 2018, 06:27:13 pm
Where is this fantasy that Brett Taylor and now others are pushing that Lillis-White is a “power lefty” coming from? I haven’t seen a scouting report that says he can break 90 on his best day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 13, 2018, 06:34:19 pm
I haven't read a scouting report anywhere, but I would guess that they're probably assuming that he's a power lefty because he's wild and strikes out a lot of batters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 13, 2018, 07:05:54 pm
I haven't read a scouting report anywhere, but I would guess that they're probably assuming that he's a power lefty because he's wild and strikes out a lot of batters.

So not doing any homework, then. That does sound about right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 13, 2018, 07:38:00 pm
A lefty reliever with a swing and miss breaking ball can be useful, especially when he has 3 options and doesn’t need to be on the 40 man.

It is too bad you can’t combine his breaking ball and Rosario’s fastball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on December 13, 2018, 08:29:56 pm
Phil Rogers referred to him as major league ready on Twitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 13, 2018, 08:32:56 pm
Phil Rogers referred to him as major league ready on Twitter.

That pretty much rules out his being a useful piece.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 13, 2018, 08:33:58 pm
Phil Rogers is still covering baseball? I stopped following him years ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on December 13, 2018, 10:00:42 pm
Is “major league ready” but not a genuine major leaguer like a +1/2?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 13, 2018, 10:16:28 pm
James Russell was a useful lefty reliever for a few years without a breaking ball and similar fastball.  I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this guy.  He might never be anything, but he's interesting. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 13, 2018, 10:20:08 pm
Hell, he might even be as good as Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 13, 2018, 10:29:17 pm
I'll settle for as good as Duensing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 14, 2018, 12:37:17 pm
Another report that Cubs “monitoring” Harper.

National writer Mark Feinsand’s post-winter meeting roundup:

Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, met with clubs at their suite at the Aria Resort and Casino this week, getting a feel for the superstar outfielder's market. The Phillies and White Sox appear to have serious interest, though teams including the Cubs and Dodgers are also monitoring the situation. The Yankees insist they're not in on Harper, taking a big-market club out of the Harper market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 14, 2018, 02:05:40 pm
Cubs in strong pursuit of Daniel Descalso according to Rosenthal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 14, 2018, 02:10:45 pm
I imagine they are always looking for bargains, and monitor multiple dozens of guys of interest, in hopes that their price might unexpectedly fall from "that's too much" into "good value" realm.  I'm sure it rarely happens, but I think by Cubs account it has happened in a couple of significant occasions.
One was the great Heyward steal, Theo and Maddon had loved the guy, but didn't think they could afford him.  But then it turned out there was a chance, and their age-based analytics scouted his best-hitting years were coming up, that there was more power to be gained from the Cubs coaching and launch-angle analysis, and they got him for the $184, and the rest is history. 

In both the Hewyard year, and the Tanaka year, Theo has talked about having spending flexibility.  I think Hendry tended to get one-year budgets, and he normally felt it was his obligation to the fans to spend out his budget to try to assemble the most competitive team he could.  But Theo I think has more flexibility.  He talked about with the Heyward pickup, where he thought the value was too good to pass up, that he was allowed to kind of "borrow forward", and borrow money from the next year; and he got authorization from Crane Kennedy to pay beyond what the suggested budget had really authorized.  I assume some of that flexibility remains in play now, such that *IF* a really-good-value pickup became available, they could possible "borrow forward" again. 

I suspect Yu may have been another case.  The word had been that their budget was limited, and that they were kind of saving for this year that was supposed to have a bigger field.  But then I think Yu with his World Series collapse and the pitch-tipping and everything, his market wasn't as strong as deeg had expected, or maybe Theo either.  So, by Theo's account, when Yu got slightly more affordable then they expected, and given their pitching-rotation needs, they somehow got the flexibilty to take the plunge last year.  AGain, I suspect they were partly "borrowing forward", and trying to take their best shot before their window kept slimming.  Plus, I assume they are always doing some revenue-guessing; the revenue for a team that plays into the world series and has a bundle of extra home games is significantly larger than for the one-game playoffs that the Cubs hosted.  So the revenue may have been some handfuls of millions less than they had projected? 

But, I would assume that **IF** a price drops low enough, that Theo may again be able to make a case to borrow forward, and that the window is going to shrink and they should take their shots while they can? 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 14, 2018, 02:39:04 pm
Bleacher Nation write-up on Descalso from about a week ago:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/12/07/you-know-what-surprising-free-agent-is-actually-worth-discussing-daniel-descalso/

Descalso is a poor man's Ben Zobrist. There has been speculation that Zobrist could be traded to free up money, and that speculation would just grow if the Cubs did end up signing Descalso.

He'd also probably fill the "veteran leadership" role the Cubs are looking for.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 14, 2018, 03:02:12 pm
Descalso is an improvement from LaStella, but he'd be a downgrade from Zobrist.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 14, 2018, 05:33:01 pm
Cubs in strong pursuit of Daniel Descalso according to Rosenthal.

Precursor to a Zobrist salary dump?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 14, 2018, 05:37:17 pm
Clearing space for Harper.

Im still not convinced we dont sign him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 14, 2018, 06:24:00 pm
Cubs in strong pursuit of Daniel Descalso according to Rosenthal.

WHY?

I genuinely would not think the Theocracy would want the guy on the 25 man roster even if the Cubs had to pay him nothing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 14, 2018, 06:27:42 pm
He is dog ****.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 14, 2018, 08:27:16 pm
Cubs are one of the teams that has at least been in contact with Tulo, and they will send a scout to a workout. There are others though, so they aren’t necessarily the favorite. His agent told @susanslusser there are 6 teams and they will narrow field soon.--Heyman
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 14, 2018, 09:14:18 pm
Descalso is an improvement from LaStella, but he'd be a downgrade from Zobrist.

I would just as soon have Descalso as Merwin Gonzalez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 14, 2018, 09:30:26 pm
I would just as soon have Descalso as Merwin Gonzalez.

Obviously if the money were remotely close you should much rather have Gonzales - clearly a much better player.  But presumably also much more expensive.  And since the Cubs couldn't afford Jesse Chavez and there's speculation even Descalso is too rich for their blood, the odds of them going after Marwin are effectively zero.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 14, 2018, 09:36:24 pm
Suspect part of the Descalzo interest might be the veteran leadership stuff?  Descalzo went to college at Cal, and he's a Cardinals system product.

Also, maybe they kinda spent ahead and used this year's money to sign Yu last year; and hoped that a strong playoff run would pay for it anyway? 

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 14, 2018, 09:54:02 pm
Descalso would be a useful addition. Last two seasons combined, his iso has averaged .180 per season. So, he now seems to have some pop. An upgrade over La Stella. Don’t think any more to it than that. Seems unlikely would impact Zobrist’s tenure here. There’s a 25-man roster spot for Descalso and when Russell comes back in May, Bote could be optioned assuming ALL of the other position players are healthy and only one spot available for Descalso/Bote.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 14, 2018, 10:52:19 pm
Cubs one of 6 teams to reach out to Tulo. On a minimum deal without any guarantees of playing time I see very little downside.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 14, 2018, 11:05:39 pm
Cubs one of 6 teams to reach out to Tulo. On a minimum deal without any guarantees of playing time I see very little downside.

I just read this article on Tulowitzki, and I think it provides a pretty clear idea of why the Cubs would be interested in him, given all the talk about needing a veteran to play the role Rossy played in 2016.

https://theathletic.com/714852/2018/12/14/lott-as-he-leaves-the-blue-jays-troy-tulowitzki-deserves-thanks-for-the-memories/

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 14, 2018, 11:41:48 pm
Tulo meets the most important criteria for the Cubs this offseason - he'd play for league minimum.

I have no problem going after this guy, since the risk is pretty minimal.  But be clear, Tulo hasn't been an elite player since 2014 and basically missed the past two years with chronic injuries.  The odds that he's an impact guy are hugely against, but if you can convince him to sign he's certainly worth a punt even at age 34.  But not if it means promising him the SS position, before Russell is due back or not.  Baez needs to be the SS and if Tulo signs, it should be with the idea of competing for the 2B job.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 14, 2018, 11:46:09 pm
Tulowitzki on playing a position other than shortstop: "I'll pack my bags and go home."

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/toronto-blue-jays-tulowitzki-playing-shortstop-ill-pack-my-bags-go-home-mlb-injury-news/1hhzsyb6m16x01g9ya9kqhjhim

Obviously, if he signs with the Cubs, he will have agreed to whatever plan they have for him. But I don't think we should get our hopes up for him accepting a reduced bench role to come to the Cubs. He can probably find a job where he at least has a path to starting regularly and playing shortstop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 15, 2018, 12:05:15 am
The Athletic article Ron posted states that he’d be ok with a utility role. 1) Cheap 2) Possibly a league average bat with ok defense 3) Grizzle. He seems to be perfect.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 15, 2018, 12:43:08 am
The idea of bumping Javy out of position for Tulo at this point in his career is so hilariously ludicrous that hopefully even Tulo can see that.  But if he can find an actual contender to promise his SS (which seems mutually exclusive to me) which is what he says he wants, more power to him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 15, 2018, 01:20:34 am
Tulo had a 3.4 bWAR season in 2016. That’s pretty good.

Kind of a shame how his career has gone. Through age 29, he was pretty much Derek Jeter. Tulo 38.8 bWAR and Jeter 40.6 bWAR through age 29 seasons. Harold Baines is 38.7 bWAR for his career.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 15, 2018, 09:18:08 am
The idea of bumping Javy out of position for Tulo at this point in his career is so hilariously ludicrous that hopefully even Tulo can see that.  But if he can find an actual contender to promise his SS (which seems mutually exclusive to me) which is what he says he wants, more power to him.

No one has suggested Tulowitski would displace Javy at SS. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 15, 2018, 09:47:24 am
The new pitching coach was on Bruce Levine’s radio show. He sounds impressive, so hopefully that translate to the field.

Via Cubs Insider from Kris Bryant’s dad he is pain free with his old swing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 15, 2018, 11:30:26 pm
Tulowitski could be a nice object lesson reminder to the Cub core just how small the window of opportunity can be and just how fleeting flame can be.

When he was the same age Baez is now, Tulo looked as if he was headed for the HOF.  Tulo had done much more by age 25 than Baez has so far, but at this point it is unlikely his name will last long at all on the HOF ballot.

His presence could cause some of the core to approach each season with just a bit more urgency, with a realization that their individual performance level, and the chance of the team winning it all again can disappear in a flash.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 16, 2018, 09:02:00 am
That highlights the value of building in player redundancy.  If your system is skewed (e.g., towards a few superstar types), things can go south in a hurry.  Theo seems to put a high value on redundancy and this may factor in to whether he decides to invest big in a superstar free agent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 16, 2018, 09:04:13 am
That highlights the value of building in player redundancy.  If your system is skewed (e.g., towards a few superstar types), things can go south in a hurry.  Theo seems to put a high value on redundancy and this may factor in to whether he decides to invest big in a superstar free agent.
You mean like Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, and Darvish?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 16, 2018, 11:59:40 am
Despite the addition of costly free agents, but Cubs still have considerable player redundancy.  But if they trade some of that redundancy for another costly free agent (like Harper) it could put them in a very vulnerable position.  Theo needs to navigate not only the financial limitations but also the need to maintain roster flexibility.  There's no one else I would rather have at the helm, but he has his work cut out for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 16, 2018, 12:41:32 pm
Redundancy doesn’t mean de-emphasizing a core of star players. If you want to win something, you have to have stars—and then you fill out the remainder of the roster around those stars, hopefully, with at least an average or near-average player everywhere.

Redundancy means that you have at least adequate coverage everywhere.

Of course, payroll becomes a practical consideration with a big ticket FA. But, aside from that, redundancy cannot get in the way of a star core if you can get it.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 16, 2018, 12:54:35 pm
Sufficient redundancy means you have more than adequate coverage even with an injury or two.  The Cubs have had that in recent years, and IMO they need to keep it that way.  Perhaps that will be possible even with another big time acquisition.  That's where Theo's skills come to the fore. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 16, 2018, 12:56:45 pm
I admit that I do keep hoping against hope that the Cubs will somehow wind up getting Harper.  He would be an enormous addition, obviously.

I try to remind myself, though, that the existing team has three genuine offensive stars: Bryant, Baez and Rizzo, with at least one other guy who has the potential to be: Contreras. Their supportive cast (Zobrist, Heyward (overpaid though he may be), Schwarber, Almora and Happ) ain't exactly chipped beef.

No one, including, me and least of all Theo, wants to enter 2019 without at least one more proven bat.  But, if some of the youngsters were adversely affected by mixed signals (launch angle vs. putting the ball in play), it's entirely possible that we'll see an offense more like 2016 and 2017.  And while that offense had its own issues, it was damned good at producing runs.  If Darvish, Lester, Hamels, Hendricks and Quintana perform anywhere near their potential and the bullpen steps like last season, a 2016-2017 level offense should make for a team that is capable of going deep into the playoffs.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 16, 2018, 01:37:17 pm
Sufficient redundancy means you have more than adequate coverage even with an injury or two.  The Cubs have had that in recent years, and IMO they need to keep it that way.  Perhaps that will be possible even with another big time acquisition.  That's where Theo's skills come to the fore. 

What I’m saying is that you should not let depth get in the way of acquiring a star. Payroll considerations are one thing, but you can get near-average guys to protect against injuries. Those guys are all over the place.

You win with stars, so long as you are not terrible here and there. Stars are very hard to find. Average and near-average guys are not hard to find.

Payroll considerations are there for every club. What really hurts is when you are paying guys as stars, but they perform as non-stars.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 17, 2018, 10:46:26 am
I was thinking recently that Theo Epstein was hired by the Cubs in October, 2011, seven years ago.  So he is now, I believe, entering the third year of his second five year contract, meaning he presumably only has three years remaining in his own window with the Cubs (he's generally expected to move on at the end of this contract). So it's safe to say that he feels his own since of urgency to get back to the World Series.

I do not think he's the kind of guy who would sacrifice the future of the franchise for immediate success, even though he doesn't expect to be around after the 2021 season. Still, it should be clear that he's also highly focused on doing what he thinks is necessary for short-term success. 
That is probably worth remembering when trying to understand how he is approaching his job in general and this off-season in particular.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 17, 2018, 01:20:27 pm
I hadn't heard that he was expected to move on after this contract.  Who is doing the expecting, and why?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 17, 2018, 01:55:18 pm
I hadn't heard that he was expected to move on after this contract.  Who is doing the expecting, and why?

I remember reading, more than once I think, that he believes 10 years is a kind of limit to being effective. I can't cite any specific sources, but my impression is that this is widely expected to be the case. As always, I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2018, 03:15:50 pm
He's said 10 years in the limit somebody should stay in 1 place and has guessed that is as long as he'd stay, but it isn't set in stone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 17, 2018, 05:35:46 pm
I remember reading, more than once I think, that he believes 10 years is a kind of limit to being effective. I can't cite any specific sources, but my impression is that this is widely expected to be the case. As always, I could be wrong.

That is also my memory from one of the early interviews with him after he joined the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on December 17, 2018, 07:01:10 pm
I've also heard Theo talk about "10 years" being the limit of productive time in such a role.

Bill Walsh, the Hall of Fame 49ers football coach who turned that franchise into one of the best ever, wrote about "10 years as the limit" two decades ago and a quite a few sports executives and coaches have echoed his theory. 

Over time, the 100+ hour weeks and immense pressure that comes with those roles must take a toll!

Folks, we should enjoy the next 3 years as much as we can...there is FAR less certainty Cubs will "sustain success" after that incredibly hard-working, brilliant guy leaves (with the greatest record of any MLB executive ever).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 17, 2018, 07:39:18 pm
I've also heard Theo talk about "10 years" being the limit of productive time in such a role....  Folks, we should enjoy the next 3 years as much as we can...there is FAR less certainty Cubs will "sustain success" after that incredibly hard-working, brilliant guy leaves (with the greatest record of any MLB executive ever).

George Weiss was GM of the Yankees for 13 years, during which the Yankees won 10 pennants, 7 WS and had a winning percentage of .622.

Nice to know that Theo has beaten that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 17, 2018, 09:56:32 pm
Ben, if this coming season goes south I wouldn't be shocked to see a major teardown-rebuild whether Theo sticks around or not.  Joe would be gone for sure and Theo might decide that if ownership doesn't want to stay with the big boys financially, that would be preferable to a slow decline followed by a crash when the FAs bolt.  Rizzo would probably stay with his contract, but I could see Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, Quintana, and Hendricks all dealt after next season.  Maybe see what you can get for Lester if he has a decent season and is willing to waive his NTC. Hope Almora and Happ step up and build around Baez and prospects.

Mind you, I'm not saying that's the most likely scenario - just one that can't be ruled out.  There's a lot of potential for things to turn ugly next year based on what's gone down over the last few months.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2018, 10:40:03 pm
Yes, it can be.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on December 17, 2018, 11:19:25 pm
Deeg, I agree that next season could go south, particularly IF our pitching doesn't come through as it has in recent years.
If that happens, there will, indeed, be MANY changes!

Jes, George Weiss has quite a record; however, he wasn't the person who led the Red Sox to their 1st two World Championships in almost 100 years AND the Cubs to their 1st World Championship in 108 years!

In all due respect to Mr. Weiss, count me among those who believe Theo is THE best ever for ending the Red Sox AND Cub droughts - somehow, architecting the Cubs' to a WS might have earned that recognition by itself, but providing that for BOTH tortured franchises??
It's a no-brainer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 17, 2018, 11:53:06 pm
Only 2 teams paid the CBT last year and the Cubs are currently the only team above the threshold. They are playing with the big boys already.

The Cubs are going to have Hamels, Zobrist, Strop, Kintzler, Dunensing and maybe Morrow as free agents next year. There will be big changes next year regardless of what happens.

If Theo has 3 years left, he isn’t taking a World Series contender and tearing it down partially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 18, 2018, 07:30:11 am
Jes, George Weiss has quite a record; however, he wasn't the person who led the Red Sox to their 1st two World Championships in almost 100 years AND the Cubs to their 1st World Championship in 108 years!

In all due respect to Mr. Weiss, count me among those who believe Theo is THE best ever for ending the Red Sox AND Cub droughts - somehow, architecting the Cubs' to a WS might have earned that recognition by itself, but providing that for BOTH tortured franchises??
It's a no-brainer.

You are now looking for reasons to consider one better than the other, and that is moving the goalposts from your original position, which was simply that Theo has the best RECORD of any MLB executive ever.

Unless Theo can top the RECORD Weiss had, he does NOT have the best RECORD.

It is about like saying some pitcher who won 60% of his games so far in his career has the best RECORD of any MLB pitcher ever... and ignoring the existence of Whitey Ford.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 18, 2018, 07:33:25 am
The Cubs are going to have Hamels, Zobrist, Strop, Kintzler, Dunensing and maybe Morrow as free agents next year. There will be big changes next year regardless of what happens. 


Those last three names could all announce their retirements this afternoon, with the Cubs getting nothing at all for any of them... and it would not come remotely close to qualifying as a "big change."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 10:19:19 am
I forgot Cishek too.

That will be $60+ million dropping off the payroll.

Here is the list of relievers who the Cubs control after this year by IP.  Edwards, Rosario, Montgomery, Norwood, Chatwood, Mills, Maples, Victor Caratini, Ian Happ, and Anthony Rizzo.  So the bullpen is going to have a big overhaul going into 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 10:46:55 am
Cubs finally do something:

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Cubs close to signing free-agent IF Daniel Descalso, source tells The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on December 18, 2018, 11:13:40 am
Have the World Series tickets been printed yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 11:26:01 am
Two years, $5 million for Descalso with a $3.5 million option for 2021.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 11:30:22 am
Descalso for $1 million more than La Stella is a steal
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 12:17:29 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian

Descalso's launch angle jumped to 19.1 degrees in '18 from 12.8 degrees in '17. Exit velo also went up a touch: 89 mph in '18 vs. 87 mph in '17. Barrel rate doubled: 10.2% in '18 from 5.1% in '17. Advanced approach/occasional pop added to Cubs' bench.

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
More Jesse Rogers Retweeted Ken Rosenthal
Team has not confirmed yet. Would take La Stella's place on roster. Similar late inning good AB makeup. Considered a leader in the clubhouse.Had a .893 OPS in situations deemed late/close. Can play every infield position but hasn't played SS in a couple years. 10 for 39 as PH
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 12:24:40 pm
It seems like a pretty good start. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 18, 2018, 12:30:12 pm
Two years, $5 million for Descalso with a $3.5 million option for 2021.

Wonder what the option will look like?  Cubs option?  Or option that will trigger with games available, or something? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 12:31:52 pm
Wonder what the option will look like?  Cubs option?  Or option that will trigger with games available, or something? 

Club option with $1 million buyout.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 12:31:53 pm
Team option according to Rosenthal. There’s also a $1 million buyout, so it’s really a $2.5 million decision.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 18, 2018, 12:44:42 pm
Guy hasn't played much SS in a while, but used to. 

I wonder if Cubs will be OK with just Descalso/Bote as SS backups during the Russell suspension? 

I hope so.  Lots of off days and rainouts and stuff during the spring.  So don't think they need a backup SS to give Baez rest-for-rest-sake days off during the first quarter. 

Barring injury, I'd think Javy will be pretty fresh and strong enough to be pretty much every-day guy during first 40 games during which Russell is suspended.  **IF** they want to rest Baez for a game or two, hopefull Descalso or Bote could be anti-awful enough to pick up one start, or two.  **IF** Baez gets hurt (please no....) I assume you can cover with Descalzo for a few innings or a single start while you call up your defensive SS from Iowa as needed. 

Probably the bigger question will be how they cover 2B during games with Baez at SS. 

Perhaps that will be a question not only before Russell returns, but after as well?  Descalzo, Zobrist, Bote, Happ, and eventually Russell, **somebody** will need to be the middle-infield partner for Javy.  Obviously Russell is on a different planet defensively from those other guys.  But who knows whether Russell will be able to hit enough to stay in the lineup ahead of the other guys.  Hopefully Russell will emerge as a great-glove-plus-good-bat win-win.  But that may be more hope than expectation, for now.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 12:45:46 pm
Descalso for $1 million more than La Stella is a steal

This is semantics, but I'd frame it more as "La Stella for $1 million less than Descalso is an overpay." $2.5 million is about right for Descalso, who was never even an average hitter before last year. But he is better than La Stella at everything a baseball player does outside of hitting singles.

There may be some upside, though...here's Jeff Sullivan on Descalso's swing change:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-quietest-swing-changer/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 01:02:17 pm
Probably the bigger question will be how they cover 2B during games with Baez at SS. 

Perhaps that will be a question not only before Russell returns, but after as well?  Descalzo, Zobrist, Bote, Happ, and eventually Russell, **somebody** will need to be the middle-infield partner for Javy.  Obviously Russell is on a different planet defensively from those other guys.  But who knows whether Russell will be able to hit enough to stay in the lineup ahead of the other guys.  Hopefully Russell will emerge as a great-glove-plus-good-bat win-win.  But that may be more hope than expectation, for now.   

A Bote/Zobrist platoon would work nicely at 2B. 

This is semantics, but I'd frame it more as "La Stella for $1 million less than Descalso is an overpay." $2.5 million is about right for Descalso, who was never even an average hitter before last year. But he is better than La Stella at everything a baseball player does outside of hitting singles.

There may be some upside, though...here's Jeff Sullivan on Descalso's swing change:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-quietest-swing-changer/

La Stella at around $1.5 million was still able to get traded for something, so he had some value to somebody at that price point.

Descalso is just better on offense and while he isn't great on defense he still brings more versatility than La Stella.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 02:12:14 pm
Sahadev Sharma

@sahadevsharma
 5m5 minutes ago
More Sahadev Sharma Retweeted (((Mike McElwee)))
$1.5M for year one, $2.5M year two, $3.5M team option for year three or $1M buyout. So, yes, $5M guaranteed


Gore signed a 1 year deal with the Royals.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 03:27:52 pm
That's fine - about right for Descalso, really.  At least it's a pulse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 03:29:37 pm
Interesting article on how the new hitting analytics instructor for the White Sox helped Descalso transform his hitting approach after the 2015 season. His stats certainly began to take an upturn after that season.  His best OPS in the four seasons before 2016 was .656 (including one season with the Rockies).  His OPS in 2016-2018: .773, .727, .789.

https://theathletic.com/701875/2018/12/09/the-internets-most-followed-hitting-coach-is-now-working-for-the-white-sox-and-hes-eager-to-prove-himself/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 03:46:18 pm
Full breakdown of Descalso's contract:

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Daniel Descalso: 1.5M in 2019, 2.5M in 2020, 3.5M club option in 2021 ( 1M buyout). 50K 425, 450, 475 plate appearances, 100K 500 plate appearances. #cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 04:21:41 pm
It seems like a pretty good start. 

As long as it’s not a really weak finish.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 05:45:45 pm
SunTimes is reporting that the Cubs broadcast partner is going to be Sinclair according to Bleacher Nation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 05:47:35 pm
Apparently the Cubs partner for their network is going to be Sinclair, according to the Sun-Times.  Not to turn this thread into the politics one but if true - blech.  Forget whatever your politics are - any objective look into their standards and practices is a dark ride.  And is it really smart to risk alienating a sizable chunk of your fanbase?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 18, 2018, 05:48:58 pm
SunTimes is reporting that the Cubs broadcast partner is going to be Sinclair according to Bleacher Nation.
Story

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/12/18/nbc-sports-chicago-reportedly-moving-on-without-the-cubs-further-suggesting-cubs-plans/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 05:54:12 pm
If indeed the Cubs partnered with Sinclair, I would endeavor to make certain that I offered no financial support to their broadcast rights in any way.  And I know I'm not alone in that by a long shot.  This would be a huge mistake in pure practical terms, never mind the ethical and moral cost of jumping in bed with Sinclair.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on December 18, 2018, 06:32:11 pm
Is the lack of tax payer subsidy to renovate wrigley behind the lowered payroll expectations?

https://deadspin.com/cubs-owners-discussed-moving-team-out-of-chicago-during-1831179210
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 06:55:38 pm
They ended up replacing the public funding by selling a minority share in the team for $150 million, the advertising and various corporate sponsorships.

If I remember correctly the $575 price tag includes the Hotel Gregory which is owned outside of the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 06:57:45 pm
If indeed the Cubs partnered with Sinclair, I would endeavor to make certain that I offered no financial support to their broadcast rights in any way.  And I know I'm not alone in that by a long shot.  This would be a huge mistake in pure practical terms, never mind the ethical and moral cost of jumping in bed with Sinclair.

Yeah, I'm definitely not looking forward to the Joe Simpson/Curt Schilling broadcast duo. Or eliminating the 7th inning stretch for the 7th inning right wing conspiracy rant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 07:07:25 pm
So, Cubs news in the last month:

More and more it really feels like 2016 was the result of a pact with the devil.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 07:11:41 pm
The Cubs threatening to move was news like 5 years ago, Deadspin just realized it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-xpm-2013-05-02-chi-wrigley-upgrades-20130501-story,amp.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 07:18:22 pm
The Cubs threatening to move was news like 5 years ago, Deadspin just realized it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-xpm-2013-05-02-chi-wrigley-upgrades-20130501-story,amp.html

Yes, but no one reported it at the time as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on December 18, 2018, 07:23:49 pm
The Cubs threatening to leave Wrigley is the emptiest threat in the history of the world. I don’t blame them for trying to get public money sinde so many cities and states have been so willing to hand out cash they don’t have to teams.  Thankfully it worked out the way it always should with the extremely rich owners paying for it with the money they do have.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 07:33:49 pm
Yes, but no one reported it at the time as far as I can tell.

Tom Ricketts pubically threatened it at one point 2013 when they were having issues with the rooftops after the public funding was off the table. Like Cletus noted it was an empty threat because what would the Ricketts die with a multimillion assets that is a historic landmark in the middle of Chicago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 18, 2018, 08:09:17 pm
Who the hell is Sinclair, and why should the Cubs not work with them?  And why should we care which broadcasting company works with them?

I am glad that the Cubs got no tax money for the team.  I believe that NO publicly owned sports team should get tax money.  On the other hand, since almost all teams DO get tax money (I watched the Brewers get rich on my tax money), I see no reason why the Cubs would have been wrong to take the team where they WOULD get that break.  Other than the fact that they would probably make more money in Wrigley Field than in most other places in the country.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 08:11:30 pm
Yeah, was waiting for that post...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on December 18, 2018, 08:22:29 pm
The odds that DaveP does not know who Sinclair is are approximately 0%.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 18, 2018, 08:42:17 pm
Cubs are denying any deal with Sinclair.

Are there any examples of politics creeping into The Tennis Channel?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 08:46:47 pm

Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine

Breaking news -The Chicago Cubs are denying they have a deal in place for a new regional network with Sinclair broadcasting . Industry sources say Sinclair is certainly a front runner to become a partner .
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 08:50:40 pm
Deny, deny, deny...  The Ricketts know the playbook very well.

It's not totally impossible they floated this to see just how much outrage it would cause, of course.  In which case I hope the furor continues to be attention-grabbing for them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on December 18, 2018, 08:55:08 pm
Board has gone to ****.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 18, 2018, 09:47:20 pm
Sinclair are Trump supporters right?

Arent the Rickett's clan democrats?

If they dont care to do business with them then why should anyone else?

BTW...

I only know who Sinclair is because they own Ring Of Honor wrestling.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 09:50:56 pm
I am no fan of most of the Ricketts family, as far as their politics goes (which really should not be part of this topic). But this notion that their politics is simplistic is neither accurate nor relevant to baseball decisions.  I know a little about the Ricketts family as well as their involvement with the Cubs and the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley Field. I live 1.5 miles from the ballpark, have a long history as a Cub fan, as well as of involvement in Chicago politics and have followed all of the machinations (political and otherwise) around the family and the ballpark pretty closely.

First, the family is not a monolithic family politically. Joe (father, and least involved with the Cubs) is a funder of right wing politicians and causes (I don't expect anyone to disagree with this). Pete Ricketts, who has had no involvement with the Cubs, is a conservative/right wing Republican Governor of Nebraska. Todd is a very conservative or even right wing guy who almost went to work for the Trump administration. Todd has little (if any) direct involvement with the Cubs. Tom, who is the guy who actually operates as the active owner of the Cubs, whatever his politics, has avoided being directly involved in politics at least since his direct involvement with the Cubs. Laura, is the second most involved member of the Ricketts family with the Cubs. She is a Democrat, an Obama bundler, a lesbian and major supporter of liberal causes. The guy hired by Tom Ricketts to run the Cubs, Theo Epstein, is a liberal Democrat.

The local alderman, who resisted many of the changes at Wrigley Field, is being challenged by a liberal Democrat (who worked in the Obama administration and in Democratic Governor Patrick Quinn's administration), as well as a couple of other challengers (one a Republican). The incumbent has weirdly accused his primary challenger as being a tool of the right wing Ricketts.  It does appear that Laura Ricketts may support him, though is not contributing to his campaign. So people, for whatever purposes, have confused the Rickett's conflicting politics to support their own points of view.

Being offended by the politics of the right wing portion of the Ricketts family led one member of the board to conclude that the primary interest of the family in taking over ownership of the Cubs was a business decision, and that their greed would prevent them from investing heavily in the team. Well, that clearly turned out not to be the case. So, I'd suggest we take care about repeating this mistake.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 10:33:24 pm
Add deadbeat Dad to the Addison Russell resume:

https://twitter.com/AllyPruitt1/status/1075138896562925576

Apparently when he did pay his child support, Addy was fond of doing so in rolls of quarters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 10:35:52 pm
Ron, you can believe whatever you wish about the Ricketts family (though I do ROFL at the use of one outlier as an exemplar of some kind of political balance) or their intentions.  But the Sinclair matter goes far beyond left-right politics.  The damage they've done to local journalism in America is already incalculable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 10:46:44 pm
Ron, you can believe whatever you wish about the Ricketts family (though I do ROFL at the use of one outlier as an exemplar of some kind of political balance) or their intentions.  But the Sinclair matter goes far beyond left-right politics.  The damage they've done to local journalism in America is already incalculable.

I would appreciate it if you did not mis-characterize what I wrote ("exemplar of some kind of political balance"). And that one outlier (which she surely is, politically) is also easily the second most involved member of the family when it comes to the Cubs. If you have reason to believe otherwise, please feel free to make your case. I also hope that you acknowledge that you were wrong in your initial certainty that Tom Ricketts would not be willing to heavily invest in the Cubs.  As to Sinclair, I will be very disappointed if they become the Cubs' partner. Let's see if that actually happens.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 18, 2018, 10:53:26 pm
And you see nothing troubling in the way the Ricketts have seemingly hobbled the Cubs financially in the midst of what should have been an offseason of huge opportunity for them?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 11:09:28 pm
Add deadbeat Dad to the Addison Russell resume:

Great job tendering him, Cubs.

The team is crying poor, but they decided to give $4-$5 million to this guy. Awful decision.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on December 18, 2018, 11:20:19 pm
Crying poor? How much should the payroll be?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 18, 2018, 11:28:08 pm
And you see nothing troubling in the way the Ricketts have seemingly hobbled the Cubs financially in the midst of what should have been an offseason of huge opportunity for them?

Tell you what. I'll answer this question after you answer the one I asked you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 18, 2018, 11:49:54 pm
Crying poor? How much should the payroll be?

They're giving $4 million (or more) to a defense-only shortstop who is an admitted domestic abuser. If they can throw money at that guy when they could've just non-tendered him, I have a hard time believing they're having trouble to find money for someone like Joakim Soria.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 12:20:25 am
They have a $220 million payroll for the CBT.  Some otherwise smart people have been truly stupid in this thread of late. The only thing hobbling the Cubs payroll is spending $52.5 million on Hamels/Darvish/Chatwood.

I’ll ask again is their any indication that Sinclair has injected politics into the Tennis channel? 

If the Cubs do partner with Sinclair it sounds like Sinclair would be the distrubator and the Cubs would retain majority ownership. That is a great deal for the Cubs. If they are paid money for their rights it subject to revenue sharing. Ownership profits (fees, ads, etc..) aren’t. That means more money for team to reinvest.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 12:50:10 am
Even assuming that were true, that would still mean you were OK with making assloads of money for a despicable company that's actively trying to destroy American journalism in the name of their owner's political agenda.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 12:51:40 am
Tell you what. I'll answer this question after you answer the one I asked you.

You mean the straw man one that was based on a false premise in the first place?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: buff on December 19, 2018, 05:59:11 am
Even assuming that were true, that would still mean you were OK with making assloads of money for a despicable company that's actively trying to destroy American journalism in the name of their owner's political agenda.
who George Soros has already done that
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on December 19, 2018, 06:43:45 am
I am no fan of most of the Ricketts family, as far as their politics goes (which really should not be part of this topic). But this notion that their politics is simplistic is neither accurate nor relevant to baseball decisions.  I know a little about the Ricketts family as well as their involvement with the Cubs and the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley Field. I live 1.5 miles from the ballpark, have a long history as a Cub fan, of involvement in Chicago politics and have followed all of the machinations (political and otherwise) around the family and the ballpark pretty closely.

First, the family is not a monolithic family politically. Joe (father, and least involved with the Cubs) is a funder of right wing politicians and causes (I don't expect anyone to disagree with this). Pete Ricketts, who has had no involvement with the Cubs, is a conservative/right wing Republican Governor of Nebraska. Todd is a very conservative or even right wing guy who almost went to work for the Trump administration. Todd has little (if any) direct involvement with the Cubs. Tom, who is the guy who actually operates as the active owner of the Cubs, whatever his politics, has avoided being directly involved in politics at least since his direct involvement with the Cubs. Laura, is the second most involved member of the Ricketts family with the Cubs. She is a Democrat, an Obama bundler, a lesbian and major supporter of liberal causes. The guy hired by Tom Ricketts to run the Cubs, Theo Epstein, is a liberal Democrat.

The local alderman, who resisted many of the changes at Wrigley Field, is being challenged by a liberal Democrat (who worked in the Obama administration and in Democratic Governor Patrick Quinn's administration), as well as a couple of other challengers (one a Republican). The incumbent has weirdly accused his primary challenger as being a tool of the right wing Ricketts.  It does appear that Laura Ricketts may support him, though is not contributing to his campaign. So people, for whatever purposes, have confused the Rickett's conflicting politics to support their own points of view.

Being offended by the politics of the right wing portion of the Ricketts family led one member of the board to conclude that the primary interest of the family in taking over ownership of the Cubs was a business decision, and that their greed would prevent them from investing heavily in the team. Well, that clearly turned out not to be the case. So, I'd suggest we take care about repeating this mistake.
Well said Ron. Despite the media, cable news channels and politicians on both sides, others who do not share our views are not enemies. It is possible to have a contrary view politically and not be enemies. We used to believe that in this country. Unfortunately, that is becoming the exception to the rule. So thanks Ron, and now, back to baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 19, 2018, 09:44:53 am
You mean the straw man one that was based on a false premise in the first place?

Does this mean you deny that you claimed that Ricketts would not invest heavily in the Cubs after he took it over?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 10:03:53 am
Even assuming that were true, that would still mean you were OK with making assloads of money for a despicable company that's actively trying to destroy American journalism in the name of their owner's political agenda.

I've lived in 3 cities that have Sinclair stations.  I don't watch them for news and whatever they are doing hasn't effected the local news station that I watch. 

I really wouldn't care if the Cubs partnered with George Soros and had Keith Olbermann and Alec Baldwin doing the games as long as it brought in a crap ton of money for the Cubs. 

In actual baseball news it sounds like Tulo looked good in his workout, but that he is looking for a starting job vs utility role.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 19, 2018, 12:32:24 pm
Article about Melisa Reidy, Addison Russell's ex-wife:

http://www.expandedroster.com/2018/12/19/melisa-reidy-is-speaking-out-its-time-for-everyone-to-listen/

I really don't see how the Cubs can bring him back. What happens if they release him now before his arbitration hearing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 19, 2018, 12:41:38 pm
Link doesn't work.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 19, 2018, 12:51:24 pm
It was working a few minutes ago. That site is pretty small and has been overwhelmed with traffic at different times this morning, so it's probably down right now.

They also have a PDF version on a different site:

https://www.docdroid.net/b4Kkd6i/melisa-reidy-is-speaking-out-its-time-for-everyone-to-listen-kw.pdf
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 12:53:26 pm
The internet traffic took down the site.  Is there any indication in the article that their is something the Cubs wouldn't have been aware of?

I think that after the Cubs agree to a contract with him they owe him 30 days termination pay if they release him before a certain point in Spring Training.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 19, 2018, 12:58:58 pm
Article about Melisa Reidy, Addison Russell's ex-wife:

http://www.expandedroster.com/2018/12/19/melisa-reidy-is-speaking-out-its-time-for-everyone-to-listen/

I really don't see how the Cubs can bring him back.
Just because he has now had kids with three different women and paid child support to one of them in mostly quarters and ones?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 19, 2018, 12:59:20 pm
Is there any indication in the article that their is something the Cubs wouldn't have been aware of?

No...but every bit of new information makes the PR hit they're taking that much worse. At some point, the organization would probably prefer to cut bait rather than continue dealing with the bad PR.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 19, 2018, 01:00:37 pm
Russell doesn't have a dollar-figure for his contract yet, right?  Arb deals aren't wrapped up yet, are they? 

Contracts for arb-guys are non-guaranteed, correct, unless there is special provision?  So the Cubs still presumably have the contractual right to cut Russell prior to mid-March, and be obligated to only 30-days-worth of his contract.  So, in a sense they kind of have an ~$0.5K opt-out available, right?   

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/non-guaranteed-contract
"Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins."

When Theo announced they were bringing him back, there were contingencies in his wording.  They were going to help him become a better man, counseling, personal development, etc..  It may be that paying child support is unconnected to anger-management counseling.  But I would assume that child support would be an externally measurable increment of developing responsibility. 

I'd have to think that if Russell refuses to do even so trivial and easy a thing, that it's going to be kind of tough for Theo to conclude that Russell has a heart in the right place, and that he's making appropriate progress in his personal development.   

Russell must have a terrible agent if the agent can't even get direct-deposit set up for Russell's child-support payment.  Almost too bizarre to be true. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 19, 2018, 01:24:07 pm
So if the Cubs decided to cut him this afternoon and no one else signed him before his arbitration date, would they still have to go through arbitration with him to figure out how much severance pay he gets?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 01:48:35 pm
Russell must have a terrible agent if the agent can't even get direct-deposit set up for Russell's child-support payment.  Almost too bizarre to be true. 

Scott Boras is his agent.

So if the Cubs decided to cut him this afternoon and no one else signed him before his arbitration date, would they still have to go through arbitration with him to figure out how much severance pay he gets?

I'm not sure.  My initial guess is that they have to go through an arbitration hearing to make it non-guaranteed and subject to the 30 day rule.  If Boras would agree to a non-guaranteed contract dependent on him making the team they could cut him at any time.  I think if they agree to a deal outside of an arbitration hearing it is guaranteed unless specifically stated that it isn't and they'd owe him the full amount.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 02:05:52 pm
Smh...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 19, 2018, 04:16:10 pm
The odds that DaveP does not know who Sinclair is are approximately 0%.

You lose that one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 19, 2018, 04:23:29 pm
It's surprising that the Cubs haven't given a statement on Russell today. That article came out this morning (and was announced on that site's Twitter account yesterday), and the reports about his paternity payments for his other kid broke late last night. You would think Theo would've been prepared with some kind of response as soon as the article was released this morning. But it's 7 hours later now, and there has been complete silence from the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 19, 2018, 04:41:10 pm
So if the Cubs decided to cut him this afternoon and no one else signed him before his arbitration date, would they still have to go through arbitration with him to figure out how much severance pay he gets?

According to ArizonaPhil, the team does not request arbitration.  Only the player can do that.  The team tendered him a contract, and the player can accept it or request arbitration.  We do not know what contract was tendered, although there are minimum requirements in the Labor Contract.

I have not heard whether or not Russell has requested arbitration.  If he has not, he might just sign the contract tendered to him, which has different rules about what or how much is guaranteed, if he feels that those rules are in his favor.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 05:01:51 pm
The really funny thing is that raging imbecile Phil Rogers came out with a piece arguing that Russell needs to be the everyday SS two hours after this latest story broke.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 05:13:36 pm
Like Ive said before I enjoy messing with you all and I honestly mean no harm. Its just good natured ribbbing.

As far as Addison goes I do believe in the gold digger and jaded ex theory in this case as well but Addison definitely hasnt done himself any favors and brought the majority of this on himself.

I do wonder if the Cubs already knew about this when they decided to tender him a contract.

Surely they all sat down and had a heart to heart and aired it all out.

If they didnt know then he may have just blew his last chance.

There's a story on Twitter than Brandon Hyde and Baltimore might be interested in him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 05:37:55 pm
Meanwhile, a Fangraphs piece on why the Sinclair partnership might be a debacle apart from the fact that they're a moral and ethical monstrosity (which clearly no longer factors into the Cubs' calculus), including how their partnership has royally screwed over the Tennis Channel:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-cubs-sinclair-partnership-may-be-cause-for-concern/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 19, 2018, 05:58:28 pm
There's a story on Twitter than Brandon Hyde and Baltimore might be interested in him.
It would be helpful to know who made the tweet.   Was it a reputable source?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 06:02:49 pm
Ill find it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 06:06:07 pm
I cant find the original story that reported it. Just this...

Hearing from multiple sources that Brandon Hyde and the Orioles May have interest in Addison Russell. That move, if done soon, could open the door for a low risk, low cost but potentially high reward Tulowitzki addition. #Cubs #HotStove
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 06:06:32 pm
It would be helpful to know who made the tweet.   Was it a reputable source?

Boris Epshteyn.  100% reliable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 19, 2018, 06:12:08 pm
The really funny thing is that raging imbecile Phil Rogers came out with a piece arguing that Russell needs to be the everyday SS two hours after this latest story broke.

Russell:  57 Defensive Runs Saved  3546 Innings at SS- Career

Baez:      5 Defensive Runs Saved   1,530 Innings at SS- Career

Rogers cited these stats and, in strictly baseball terms, Russell at SS and Baez at 2B is the way to go.

From 2015 (Russell’s rookie season) thru 2018, the only MLB SS with more DRS than Russell is Andrelton Simmons. That’s it. Simmons...and then Russell.

Of course, we don’t live in a baseball world of strictly baseball terms, so Russell has a penalty to serve for his outrageously uncivil and, indeed, misdemeanor criminal conduct, toward his former spouse. Cubs, so far to this point, have decided to give Russell a chance for rehabilitation. I think that’s a reasonable course to take.

The new details flesh out what we already knew: Russell is the boyfriend/spouse you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. Even before all this, seem to recall we already knew about the three kids with three different women by age 24—not the roadmap for domestic tranquility for most young men.

But, for now, after he serves his penalty and his public shaming, think the young man is worth giving an opportunity to perform with the Cubs if can get his head on straight going forward. The outrageous child support payment in coins was three years ago—-childish, stupid behavior that presumably hasn’t happened again. His public shaming is deserved and maybe will have an impact on him going forward.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 06:19:46 pm
Meanwhile, a Fangraphs piece on why the Sinclair partnership might be a debacle apart from the fact that they're a moral and ethical monstrosity (which clearly no longer factors into the Cubs' calculus), including how their partnership has royally screwed over the Tennis Channel:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-cubs-sinclair-partnership-may-be-cause-for-concern/

I’m not sure how you took the Tennis channel was royally screwed. They went from 30 million subscribers pre-Sinclair to 55 million in an era when most cable channels are losing subscribers.

I took his argument that they would leverage assets to get higher fees or numbers of subscribers. That is what Disney, Fox, NBC, CBS, Liberty all do. It wouldn’t really work for the Cubs though, because other than the Tennis channel the only local channels are in South Bend and Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 06:20:22 pm


Russell:  57 Defensive Runs Saved  3546 Innings at SS- Career


Baez:      5 Defensive Runs Saved   1,530 Innings at SS- Career


Rogers cited these stats and, in strictly baseball terms, Russell at SS and Baez at 2B is the way to go.


From 2015 (Russell’s rookie season) thru 2018, the only MLB SS with more DRS than Russell is Andrelton Simmons. That’s it. Simmons...and then Russell.


Of course, we don’t live in a baseball world of strictly baseball terms, so Russell has a penalty to serve for his outrageously uncivil and, indeed, misdemeanor criminal conduct, toward his former spouse. Cubs, so far to this point, have decided to give Russell a chance for rehabilitation. I think that’s a reasonable course to take.


The new details flesh out what we already knew: Russell is the boyfriend/spouse you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. Even before all this, seem to recall we already knew about the three kids with three different women by age 24—not the roadmap for domestic tranquility for most young men.


But, for now, after he serves his penalty and his public shaming, think the young man is worth giving an opportunity to perform with the Cubs if can get his head on straight going forward. The outrageous child support payment in coins was three years ago—-childish, stupid behavior that presumably hasn’t happened again. His public shaming is deserved and maybe will have an impact on him going forward.



So your answer is quoting stats and chalking up Russell's atrocious conduct to "immaturity" and "presuming" (your word, not mine) it isn't going to happen again?  Why - because abusers and deadbeat dads have a good track record of growing out of it?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 06:25:46 pm
People do tend to mature with age.

I was the definition of deadbeat pos in my 20s and with the help of a good wife I now live a very fruitful and productive life.

If anything Im the over protective father now.

I also learned the jaded ex baby momma lesson.

She loved me when I was a pos but when I got married and got my **** in order I became public enemy #1.

Oh yeah and I havent missed a child support payment since we went to court,I call my daughter every day,and she gets every dime of my income tax but Im suddenly a sorry bastard for moving on.

Im certain a few here feel my pain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on December 19, 2018, 06:29:49 pm
So, Cubs news in the last month:

  • Refused to release confessed serial abuser
  • Owner compared himself to a slave because he had to deal with unions
  • News broke that the team had threatened to leave the city over not getting enough tax breaks
  • Apparently agreed to partner with a media company which every day does its best to destroy independent local journalism in America
More and more it really feels like 2016 was the result of a pact with the devil.
At least we had that one glorious week...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 19, 2018, 06:58:15 pm

So your answer is quoting stats and chalking up Russell's atrocious conduct to "immaturity" and "presuming" (your word, not mine) it isn't going to happen again?  Why - because abusers and deadbeat dads have a good track record of growing out of it?

It’s not a matter of “immaturity” (a word I didn’t use) and “presumably” referred clearly to payment in coins from three years ago, not the spousal abuse.

Cubs, to this point, are taking a nuanced position on this: condemning the bad conduct and supporting the punishment while, at the same time, offering Russell an opportunity with conditions for Russell’s future behavior. We’ll see how long that lasts, but I think that’s an approach worth supporting for now.

That kind of nuance and ambiguity is going to be uncomfortable for some. I get that. But, folks who actually run an enterprise, a business, a sports operation, etc. deal with balances of interests all the time—at least those who run a quality operation.

Would not surprise me if Cubs cut bait at some point. That might include having a viable on-field replacement for Russell: it’s part of those balance of interests referred to above. So might be placing Russell in a better situation for him, if it comes to that. In an ideal baseball world, Russell changes his ways, off the field, in this rehabilitative process AND plays well for the Cubs. Seems reasonable to give that a go and see what happens.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 19, 2018, 07:12:02 pm
Two years, $5 million for Descalso with a $3.5 million option for 2021.

Ugh.  I wouldn't like the idea of the Cubs wasting a roster spot on this guy even if he paid league minimum to be with the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 07:15:11 pm
Cubs supposedly signed Allan Webster to a minor league deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 07:39:11 pm
It’s not a matter of “immaturity” (a word I didn’t use) and “presumably” referred clearly to payment in coins from three years ago, not the spousal abuse.

Cubs, to this point, are taking a nuanced position on this: condemning the bad conduct and supporting the punishment while, at the same time, offering Russell an opportunity with conditions for Russell’s future behavior. We’ll see how long that lasts, but I think that’s an approach worth supporting for now.

That kind of nuance and ambiguity is going to be uncomfortable for some. I get that. But, folks who actually run an enterprise, a business, a sports operation, etc. deal with balances of interests all the time—at least those who run a quality operation.

Would not surprise me if Cubs cut bait at some point. That might include having a viable on-field replacement for Russell: it’s part of those balance of interests referred to above. So might be placing Russell in a better situation for him, if it comes to that. In an ideal baseball world, Russell changes his ways, off the field, in this rehabilitative process AND plays well for the Cubs. Seems reasonable to give that a go and see what happens.

Seems reasonable to you, clearly.  Your condescension towards anyone feeling differently positively jumps off the page.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on December 19, 2018, 07:43:45 pm
It’s absolutely stunning to me that you don’t realize you’re describing yourself
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 19, 2018, 08:10:11 pm
It’s absolutely stunning to me that you don’t realize you’re describing yourself

As long as you have been around here, and that still surprises you?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 19, 2018, 08:10:43 pm
So, Cubs news in the last month:

  • Refused to release confessed serial abuser
  • Owner compared himself to a slave because he had to deal with unions
  • News broke that the team had threatened to leave the city over not getting enough tax breaks
  • Apparently agreed to partner with a media company which every day does its best to destroy independent local journalism in America

   
Wrong.  Russell did NOT confess to being a "serial abuser."

   
Wrong.  As others have pointed out, this was five years ago.

   
Wrong.  Sinclair not only does not destroy independent local journalism, it supports it.

I really have no idea what you were talking about with the second item on that list, but considering each of the others were wrong, a safe bet would be that the second item also is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 19, 2018, 08:38:22 pm
(I watched the Brewers get rich on my tax money)

I am by no means excusing taxpayer subsidies of ANY business, but I am guessing that YOUR contribution to the Brewers getting rich was not a particularly significant part.


Being offended by the politics of the right wing portion of the Ricketts family led one member of the board to conclude that the primary interest of the family in taking over ownership of the Cubs was a business decision, and that their greed would prevent them from investing heavily in the team. Well, that clearly turned out not to be the case. So, I'd suggest we take care about repeating this mistake.

Well, it never really appeared more than one member of the board was making that mistake.

They're giving $4 million (or more) to a defense-only shortstop who is an admitted domestic abuser.

Russell never made such an admission.  And in fact his wife never actually made that allegation.

Even assuming that were true, that would still mean you were OK with making assloads of money for a despicable company that's actively trying to destroy American journalism in the name of their owner's political agenda.

Sinclair has not been making any effort to destroy American journalism.

Russell has a penalty to serve for his outrageously uncivil and, indeed, misdemeanor criminal conduct, toward his former spouse.

I have not read her latest comments, but I did carefully look at all of her prior comments, as well as all of those by Russell, and concluding from that that Russell is guilty of criminal conduct is a bit of a stretch.

Assuming every word of her prior statements was true, and assuming it was introduced into evidence without ANY cross-examination to challenge her, and the Russell offered no testimony of his own, the case would never even make it to the jury.  Her allegations simply did not reach the level of claiming criminal conduct.  Again, I am not even looking at proof or evidence but strictly the allegations and taking them as 100% accurate.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 19, 2018, 08:55:02 pm
I have a question for those who would have declined to tender Russell a contract offer.

What would you have done if, instead of Russell, it had been Bryant about whom these revelations had surfaced?

Now, I have a second question that may wind up being related to the first question.

If you were able to trade Russell (or Bryant in my hypothetical) to another team for meaningful value, would you consider that morally/ethically acceptable?

I'm not trying to pick a fight.  I'm genuinely interested in your answers.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 08:59:13 pm
Ive said this from day 1.

They would have been much quicker to forgive a "better" player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on December 19, 2018, 09:05:31 pm
As long as you have been around here, and that still surprises you?

Touché
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 19, 2018, 09:10:08 pm
I have a question for those who would have declined to tender Russell a contract offer.

What would you have done if, instead of Russell, it had been Bryant about whom these revelations had surfaced?

Now, I have a second question that may wind up being related to the first question.

If you were able to trade Russell (or Bryant in my hypothetical) to another team for meaningful value, would you consider that morally/ethically acceptable?

I'm not trying to pick a fight.  I'm genuinely interested in your answers.  Thank you.

You want to know how they'd feel?

Go back to November of 16.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 09:23:57 pm
I have a question for those who would have declined to tender Russell a contract offer.

What would you have done if, instead of Russell, it had been Bryant about whom these revelations had surfaced?

Now, I have a second question that may wind up being related to the first question.

If you were able to trade Russell (or Bryant in my hypothetical) to another team for meaningful value, would you consider that morally/ethically acceptable?

I'm not trying to pick a fight.  I'm genuinely interested in your answers.  Thank you.

I will haunt your family for eternity if this happens, but I’d want Bryant off the team.

Removing Russell from the Cubs is the goal, so if it brings back value all the better.

That said, Russell being on the team isn’t going to diminish my joy of watching the Cubs. Just like Chapman didn’t ruin 2016 for me. I am interested what Theo is talking about attempting with domestic violence and the Cubs. If Russell remains with the Cubs I think it should be the responsibility of all Cubs fans to hold the Cubs accountable for actually doing something and it not just be lip service.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 19, 2018, 09:39:23 pm
I am not at all concerned about Russell's moral character or his image or how having him in uniform might effect the Cubs' image with fans (okay, "not at all concerned" might be an overstatement... but not by much).

I am however considerably concerned about the degree to which all of this may effect Russell's performance.  He has not really come close to expectations at the plate for the last two years, and there has been some speculation that has at least in part been a result of the disarray in his personal life and his reaction to the attention focused on him over it.

If the Cubs, who know him far better than I do, believe his performance at the place have been less a result of injury or adjustment difficulties and more a result of personal distress and distraction, I have to hope they will look for the first chance to get decent value for him, not because he did anything we might consider wrong, but because he would be less likely at the plate to do what we would consider right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 19, 2018, 09:41:37 pm
CBJ, I would not object to your position of getting the abuser off the team, but I think there's an argument to be made that turning your domestic abuser into other baseball assets is hypocritical.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 19, 2018, 09:49:26 pm
Nice thing about being a fan, you don’t have to be consistent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 19, 2018, 10:07:49 pm
That's not specific to being a fan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 11:19:01 pm
Touché

Don't be so hard on yourself. But do work on your spelling.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 19, 2018, 11:26:36 pm
CBJ, I would not object to your position of getting the abuser off the team, but I think there's an argument to be made that turning your domestic abuser into other baseball assets is hypocritical.

I agree that argument can be made, but I don't think it would be correct.

By getting rid of a player, irrespective of his theoretical trade value, you're saying "This player doesn't represent the ethical and moral standard of someone we want representing the club, and having him do so makes a statement about the club that we don't want to make".  If another franchise has a different standard and has no such qualms, that's their choice to make.  The league decides whether a player is allowed to play (and note that it deems marijuana use as a greater crime than domestic violence).  You decide if you want that player to play for your team.


Would that be a lot more painful statement to make with someone like Bryant than a mediocre player like Russell?  Sure, it's silly to pretend otherwise.  But look at what KC did with Hunt, who was performing like a superstar for them this year.  Maybe they wouldn't have done that if he hadn't been dumb enough to get caught on tape, but the fact is that they did do it, and he was a star player for them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on December 19, 2018, 11:29:56 pm
Quote
As long as you have been around here, and that still surprises you?

It's just possible that there's a lack of self-awareness and thus hope that he could become less of a prick as a poster if it was made clear that he was very much describing himself.  Like, GB beat me to the "pot, meet kettle" post.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 20, 2018, 12:11:45 am
Ah, the herd mentality - as predictable as it is, it never fails to entertain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on December 20, 2018, 12:52:45 am
Keep up the denial, dude.  God forbid you might acknowledge or even consider there might be something off-putting about your posting style.  Wouldn't want people to start wondering whether you might not be the smartest guy in the room, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 20, 2018, 10:49:32 am
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/12/19/watch-yu-darvish-has-begun-to-throw-during-rehab/

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on December 20, 2018, 11:55:19 am
If I click on that and he is throwing towels then Ima be PIZZED!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 20, 2018, 12:12:02 pm
Baseballs on flat ground, without pain!!!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on December 20, 2018, 12:13:57 pm
I have a question for those who would have declined to tender Russell a contract offer.

What would you have done if, instead of Russell, it had been Bryant about whom these revelations had surfaced?

Now, I have a second question that may wind up being related to the first question.

If you were able to trade Russell (or Bryant in my hypothetical) to another team for meaningful value, would you consider that morally/ethically acceptable?

I'm not trying to pick a fight.  I'm genuinely interested in your answers.  Thank you.

*ducks to avoid the food fight in this thread*

JeffH, great questions.

For starters, I should say where I stand on Russell. Caveat: I'm basically at the tippy-top of the privilege totem pole, and my general philosophy is that in situations like these the expression of my opinion should take a backseat to the expression of the marginalized point of view. That said, we're not a diverse community on this board.

As the statistics *overwhelmingly* show, we should believe victims in these scenarios. So I believe Russell's ex-wife's claims of abuse, and I believe the claims of women who tell terrible stories like child support payments in quarters and singles. My belief in these stories still admits room for Russell's innocence, but with the burden of proof being on him. That said, Russell has admitted culpability, so we don't need to wonder about guilt.

Given the truth of these stories (by his own admission), Russell's treatment of so many important women in his life has been terrible. Any organization should consider these behaviors when choosing to employ Russell, especially as any sort of public figure, as is any baseball player on any team, much moreso the starting SS for one of the most beloved franchises in sports history. I believe people *can* change, and my worldview is one that affirms the fundamental goodness at the heart of people, so I do not have a problem with the notion of second chances. Rather I celebrate it. But there is a time and a place for that second chance, and it is usually not in the spotlight as the starting SS for the Cubs. And given the additional stories coming out, it appears that this may not be a second or third chance, but one further removed.

If the Cubs tendered Russell a contract for the purposes of retaining the right to evaluate the extent of the problem and the possibility of rehabilitation, I do not have a problem with that, as long as his continued employment is not a foregone conclusion, but instead a significant privilege that will prove very difficult to win. The earning of that privilege should absolutely include significant input from the women in Russell's life that he has abused - their voice should be primary as to the extent of his rehabilitation. If those women are not involved in the process, then the process is a sham, especially given Russell's role as a public figure.

If the Cubs tendered Russell a contract with the general assumption that he will play for them barring some sort of regression or PR nightmare, I have a serious problem with that.

My evaluation of the situation would be the same whether the name were Russell or Bryant.

Your second question - is trading such a player morally/ethically responsible? - is *much* more difficult to answer. If I strip away all the passion of my fandom, I must admit that if Russell is not fit to play for the Cubs, he is not fit to play for any team. Further, that ethical conclusion supersedes any competitive concerns. Given that not all teams will behave this way, it creates a serious competitive imbalance, and as a fan I hate to think of the Cubs on the short end of that stick. Instead of relying on individual teams to make the right choice, I would prefer it if MLB's governing rules set an appropriate standard.

I think it *does* communicate something to trade away a player who is an admitted abuser as compared to simply retaining that player. And especially in the case of a superstar like Bryant, the fan in me would want to see the Cubs recover *some* kind of value in removing him from the team via trade as opposed to outright release. But I think from a purely ethical standpoint, a trade does not say *enough,* and is therefore the wrong answer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 20, 2018, 12:27:05 pm
Sahadev Sharma on Descalso:

https://theathletic.com/722730/2018/12/19/why-daniel-descalso-is-much-more-than-just-tommy-la-stellas-replacement/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 20, 2018, 01:07:46 pm
Cubs have given Pat Hughes a multi-year contract extension:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1075829564570505216
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 05:44:10 pm
It's just possible that there's a lack of self-awareness and thus hope that he could become less of a prick as a poster if it was made clear that he was very much describing himself.  Like, GB beat me to the "pot, meet kettle" post.

Of course.... but that goal is not really accomplished by writing that, "It’s absolutely stunning to me that you don’t realize you’re describing yourself," as if the tone of the comment that was responding to was something new or unusual from the poster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 05:54:26 pm
As the statistics *overwhelmingly* show, we should believe victims in these scenarios.

No, actually the statistics do NOT show this.  Additionally, until her most recent comments, his wife's allegations included no claim of anything which constituted actual domestic violence/abuse.


and I believe the claims of women who tell terrible stories like child support payments in quarters and singles.

Do the singles or quarters not spend?  Will banks not accept them?  It is stupid on his part, because it takes more effort on his part, but it is far from "terrible."


Given the truth of these stories (by his own admission)...  I think it *does* communicate something to trade away a player who is an admitted abuser as compared to simply retaining that player.

Exactly what is it that he has admitted to?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 05:54:45 pm
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2811656-troy-tulowitzki-can-still-make-impact-after-being-paid-38-million-not-to-play
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 05:56:18 pm
The league decides whether a player is allowed to play (and note that it deems marijuana use as a greater crime than domestic violence).

I don't think pot use should result in ANY suspension, but the difference in punishment may be more a result of the certainty of the evidence than any thoughts on the severity of the offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 20, 2018, 06:03:54 pm
The tulowitzki situation is interesting in that he is one of the very few free agents who will decide who to play for, when money has absolutely no impact on his decision.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 20, 2018, 06:07:33 pm
We could use Tulo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on December 20, 2018, 06:09:13 pm
It kinda looks like Harper might play out the same way.

I would bet that both the Phillies and the White Sox would have been willing to beat whatever he ends up with if he signs elsewhere.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 20, 2018, 06:15:23 pm
The tulowitzki situation is interesting in that he is one of the very few free agents who will decide who to play for, when money has absolutely no impact on his decision.

When Tulo signs, will he pay taxes based on Toronto law or on the laws of his new home city?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 20, 2018, 06:16:17 pm
I can't imagine that there's enough expected playing time for Tulowitzki with the Cubs that he'd end up taking the deal. He could get a real shot at the starting shortstop job with a few teams. With the Cubs, his best case scenario is probably 400 PA playing all over the infield.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 20, 2018, 06:20:20 pm
When Tulo signs, will he pay taxes based on Toronto law or on the laws of his new home city?

Players pax taxes for whatever state/province in which they play.  So they have to file returns for every one of those states.  But how that impacts 38 million in salary not to play is an interesting question.  I suspect it would all just be counted as part of his salary, meaning he'll be paying taxes on all of it based on where he plays, just like any other player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on December 20, 2018, 06:22:36 pm
*ducks to avoid the food fight in this thread*

JeffH, great questions.

For starters, I should say...

tico, thank you for the very thoughtful answer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 06:31:33 pm
When Tulo signs, will he pay taxes based on Toronto law or on the laws of his new home city?

He may well have to pay in BOTH.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 20, 2018, 06:42:17 pm
I would think it would be based on where he plays. The Blue Jays are paying him to play somewhere else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 20, 2018, 06:47:25 pm
I would think it would be based on where he plays. The Blue Jays are paying him to play somewhere else.

Exactly.  Whatever Toronto owes him would be added to whatever his new team pays him, and he'd pay 1/162 of that in local taxes wherever he plays a game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 20, 2018, 07:54:18 pm
Craig Calcaterra @craigcalcaterra
It’s been like 36 hours. Have the Cubs said anything about the stuff that came out about Addison Russell? Asking for baseball fans who hate it when their teams employ shitbirds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 20, 2018, 08:08:35 pm
Win a gold glove and hit 20 HRs and all will be forgiven Addison.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 20, 2018, 09:54:27 pm
Win a gold glove and hit 20 HRs and all will be forgiven Addison.

It won't be forgiven by the ex, who is determined to gig him to the maximum extent possible, and in the current social climate she has a lot of people who want to make her a celebrity for doing so, the truth or falsity of her claims having no relevance in the matter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 20, 2018, 10:54:33 pm
When Tulo signs, will he pay taxes based on Toronto law or on the laws of his new home city?

Years ago there was an article about the taxes that Sammy Sosa had to pay.  The upshot of it was that anyone getting paid that much money is almost certain to have to pay income tax in almost every state he plays in, based upon the number of games he plays in that state as a percentage of the number of games he plays in the entire season.  So a player on a team based in Florida would not have to pay state income tax on the games he plays in Florida (about half his income) but if he played 16 games in California, he would have to pay California state income tax (and appropriate city and local income taxes if they exist) on 16/162 of his annual income, and so on for other states he plays in during the year.  According to the article, almost every state, as well as Canada, goes after, at the very least, the higher paid sports figures.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on December 21, 2018, 09:08:40 am
On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs.  I don't think that's true, apart from merit.

The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder.  If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot.  Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS.  But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell. 

The larger question is merit.  Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit.  But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons.  So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.

Perhaps Tulo wouldn't want to try to compete with Bote, Descalzo, Zobrist, and Russell to win that job.   But I'd think that might be almost as accessible a starting job as their might be.   

I think that given that Russell is suspended for a chunk of the season; that he's been a bad bad hitter for several years; that he too is repeatedly injured; and that his personal-life garbage makes it unclear whether the Cubs will keep him; I think all of that makes it pretty obvious that the 2nd middle-infield starting spot is very wide-open. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 21, 2018, 11:46:23 am
1) Darvish
2) Lester
3) Hamels
4) Hendricks
5) Quintana
6) Montgomery
7) Chatwood
8) Strop
9) Cishek
10) Morrow
11) Edwards
12) Kintzler
13) Duensing
14) Contreras
15) Backup C/Caratini
16) Rizzo
17) Bryant
18) Baez
19) Descalso
20) Bolte/Russell
21) Zobrist
22) Schwarber
23) Heyward
24) Almora
25) Happ

Out of options- Mills

I wonder if the lack of activity has more to do with lack of roster space.  They really need to move Duensing and Kintzler out to make room in bullpen for upgrades.  Chatwood would be great as well, but I doubt that happens in the off season.  Maybe if he is throwing strikes in spring training, but he might be an interesting bullpen piece if that is happening.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 21, 2018, 12:01:11 pm
You skipped #20. Maybe that’s Bote or Russell?

According to AZ Phil, Mills has an option for 2019.

Not hard to see Duensing getting released if not throwing well spring training. Probably going to bend over backwards to see what Chatwood can do, but if same problems he has no role.

Will be surprised if one or two (more?) of these guys aren’t traded off-season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 21, 2018, 12:13:52 pm
Good to know about Mills.  I though I read last year was his last option year. 

#20 would be Bote/Russell. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 21, 2018, 12:30:58 pm
If the Cubs end up trading for a reliever, I wouldn’t be surprised if Duensing is thrown in. He’s cheap enough that any team could afford him if it meant getting a slightly better prospect.

And I still think it makes a lot of sense for a team like the Tigers to try to catch lightning in a bottle by taking half of Chatwood’s contract rather than signing a $5-$10 million back end free agent that they’d plan to flip at the deadline.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 21, 2018, 12:31:16 pm
Sports media: For Marquee to be YES, Cubs must overcome new, bigger challenges

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/sports-media-cubs-marquee-yankees-yes-network-blackhawks-bulls-white-sox-nbc-sports-chicago-1576549/?utm_campaign=ChicagoSunTimes&utm_medium=social&utm_source=sprout&utm_content=1545341352
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 21, 2018, 12:32:48 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Du8927HXcAALpmN.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on December 21, 2018, 05:18:54 pm
*ducks to avoid the food fight in this thread*

JeffH, great questions.

For starters, I should say where I stand on Russell. Caveat: I'm basically at the tippy-top of the privilege totem pole, and my general philosophy is that in situations like these the expression of my opinion should take a backseat to the expression of the marginalized point of view.

Great, thoughtful post, tico. Thank you for sharing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 21, 2018, 09:08:23 pm
How do these private networks affect MLB.com.  I can get both Yankee games and Dodgers games on MLB.com.  Will I also get Cubs games there?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 22, 2018, 02:57:13 am
On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs.  I don't think that's true, apart from merit....   Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit.  But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons.  So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.


I know the time fans usually start imagining wildly rosy scenarios of an upcoming season is spring training, but this year, for me, it is right now.

Imagine a 2019 in which Darvish returns by about June and is actually healthy, Hendricks shows that his 2nd half was real, Quintana performs at his career averages, Lester performs no worse than his worst in his last five years, and Hamels performs not at the level he did after he cam to the Cubs last year, but just at his career average... and the Cubs have the best starting rotation in baseball. 

Then Bryant returns healthy and performs at his career averages, Baez continues to improve, Tulo signs for the league minimum and is healthy and performs not at his former stratospheric levels, but just at his career average, no one has any serious regression.... and Harper decides to sign a short term contract with the Cubs.  2019 could actually end up making the 2016 team relatively weak alongside it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 22, 2018, 10:27:16 am
On Bruce Levine’s radio show Matt Spiegel said a source told him that they new all about what Reidy said in the interview and that the Cubs didn’t care if it became public with regards on how the Cubs were going to handle Russell. Levine also said that at some point they believe Russell with speak with the media more in depth about what happened.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on December 22, 2018, 10:34:43 am
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to support the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 22, 2018, 10:57:37 am
On Bruce Levine’s radio show Matt Spiegel said a source told him that they new all about what Reidy said in the interview and that the Cubs didn’t care if it became public with regards on how the Cubs were going to handle Russell. Levine also said that at some point they believe Russell with speak with the media more in depth about what happened.

Given that Theo emphasized that the Cubs had been and would continue to be in touch with Reidy, it should be no surprise that the Cubs had this information. It would be disappointing if they did not. Presumably their decision to attempt to work with Russell to get him to understand the damage he did and to reform his behavior was with full knowledge of what he had done. If he had failed to be forthright and new information came out, that would be more damning for Russell, and (I assume) make it less likely the Cubs would continue to work with him. 

I understand if people are disinclined to take Theo at his word that he feels responsibility to try to help Russell turn around his life rather than dump Russell outright, since this all happened while he was with the Cubs. Everything I've ever read about Theo convinces me that he is a man of very high character and deep commitment to treating people honestly and fairly. I believe he meant what he said - that he feels an organizational (and perhaps personal) responsibility to try to help Russell become a better person, someone who would not do the types of things he did in the past.  Some people do change. Whether Russell will or not, who knows.  Personally, I admire Theo's intent. The easy thing would have been to dump him or trade him for whatever he could get and save the money and the controversy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on December 22, 2018, 01:30:18 pm
Great post, Ron.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 22, 2018, 02:32:23 pm
Report that Cubs signing Kendall Graveman, A’s opening day 2018 starter. TJ last summer, so likely to miss all of 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 22, 2018, 03:03:35 pm
You beat me Reb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 22, 2018, 03:20:23 pm
Graveman has been kinda league averagish in his time with the A’s, but his hast velocity has picked up. He was averaging 94 and topping out around 98 with his sinker.

He might be somebody that if you changed his pitch mix up his results might improve.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 22, 2018, 03:24:15 pm
$575,000 this year with a $3 million option in 2020.

Edit: $2 million this year if has 1 day on the active roster and he becomes a free agent if the option isn’t picked up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 22, 2018, 04:27:03 pm
Of course the Cubs could release Russell and still try and help him become a better person - that would be truly taking responsibility if they felt responsible because he'd done such terrible things on their watch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 22, 2018, 04:51:19 pm
Im beginning to believe that a lot of these posters who I assumed were men are women.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 22, 2018, 06:17:45 pm
Given that Theo emphasized that the Cubs had been and would continue to be in touch with Reidy, it should be no surprise that the Cubs had this information. It would be disappointing if they did not. 

I am not trying to be argumentative here, but instead to try to get some of the folks who believe Russell should be dumped and is an unacceptable excuse for a human being, but WHY would it be disappointing if that had not had that information?

The "information" you are talking about.... where did it come from, and who would have provided it?  What would it mean if the Cubs had NOT had the information?

You think it would have meant the Cubs did not ask her "what happened?"


Presumably their decision to attempt to work with Russell to get him to understand the damage he did and to reform his behavior was with full knowledge of what he had done. If he had failed to be forthright and new information came out, that would be more damning for Russell, and (I assume) make it less likely the Cubs would continue to work with him. 

If HE failed to be forthright?

Most of Reidy's complaints have been that he made her feel bad, didn't really love her, and that he cheated on her with other women.  And THAT is supposed to come from Russell.

Reidy is playing Cub fans, Cub management, and likely Russell, like a Stradivarius.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 22, 2018, 06:21:47 pm
... he'd done such terrible things on their watch.

On "their watch"?

What kind of nonsense is this?

The essence of her complaint is that he cheated on her.  Teams are now supposed to make sure players don't screw around on their wives?

And if it was genuinely "their watch," shouldn't the Cubs have have veto power over the marriage itself?

This is nonsense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 22, 2018, 06:24:31 pm
Im beginning to believe that a lot of these posters who I assumed were men are women.

You realize it's normal to care about and empathize with people other than those who are just like you, right? You expressed this same sentiment when we were talking about the Daniel Murphy controversy (if you replace the words "men" and "women" with "straight" and "gay," respectively).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 22, 2018, 06:49:36 pm
Im not getting into this too deeply or Ill get called every name you all can think of but it's as simple as this.

I know Addison hasnt done himself any favors with his lifestyle and we'd go through the exact same things if we made those decisions but my gripe in all of this is this...

He hasnt been arrested for assault or failure to pay child support and its his word against jaded ex's who never even started this until he had a 3rd child by the 3rd woman.

Its his word against scorned lovers.

You believe whoever you want.

Ill believe who I want.

I've been down this road before and Im far from a rich man.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 22, 2018, 07:17:50 pm
Let's say Addison is the same POS today as he was with the first two.

She aint complaining.

Why?

Because she's still "in".

The other two didnt complain when they were "in" either.

Just when he moved on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 22, 2018, 07:32:27 pm
Every now and then, I decide remove Dusty from "Ignore."  Then he does something like this.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on December 22, 2018, 09:34:50 pm
God, the cultural cancer that is toxic masculinity can’t die fast enough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 22, 2018, 10:21:07 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer is the first to report that the Cubs did in fact meet with Scott Boras in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings for three hours, and here’s the money quote: “Sources say Epstein urged them to wait before accepting an offer from another team until the Cubs had a chance to try to move some payroll off the books and check again with ownership.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 22, 2018, 10:46:30 pm
Every now and then, I decide remove Dusty from "Ignore."  Then he does something like this.

Something "like this."

In the case of the comment you are responding to, it would appear that what he has done is to make perfect sense, express himself clearly, concisely, and without anything particularly offensive.

Apparently you don't like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 22, 2018, 10:47:47 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer is the first to report that the Cubs did in fact meet with Scott Boras in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings for three hours, and here’s the money quote: “Sources say Epstein urged them to wait before accepting an offer from another team until the Cubs had a chance to try to move some payroll off the books and check again with ownership.”

A healthy Tulo and Harper.

2019 could be really fun.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on December 23, 2018, 08:22:23 am
Seems obvious that Theo is trying to create some financial space to allow a big move.  My guess is that a big move is planned and they are trying to minimize the total payroll hit.  I'll be shocked if something big doesn't happen to improve the offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on December 23, 2018, 12:25:12 pm
Talk about “burying the lead.”

The whole tenor of the Wittenmyer piece is the opposite of the “money quote.”

So, either somebody better tell Wittenmyer what he said, or I wouldn’t take that quote too seriously.

Put another way, if he had some new, useful info about Harper, Wittenmyer doesn’t write the piece that way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on December 23, 2018, 04:57:21 pm
That really was a very strange piece by Wittenmyer.  The claim that Theo (apparently recently) asked Boras to talk to the Cubs before making a deal so that he could try to free money and check back in with ownership would certainly be major news. Yet, in spite of reporting the claim, he just matter of factly goes on to write the rest of the piece as though he had not made the claim. Seems incongruous.

On the other hand, Wittenmyer has pretty consistently taken a negative tone toward the Cubs if given an opportunity to do so. Maybe he just couldn't bring himself to let that claim stand on its own without more or less undermining it?  I've never taken Wittenmyer very seriously. But in any case it's weird.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on December 24, 2018, 10:01:33 am
Good points about Wittenmyer, Ron. 

Of course, I guess it's easy to be "down" on Theo since all he's done is resuscitate a franchise going nowhere after 108 years of futility and lead the organization to a World Championship and the most wins overall in the past FOUR years (while doing so with smarts, heart, and integrity)!

Why not be the reporter taking shots at the guy who's accomplished that?   

What a pathetic schtick!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 24, 2018, 01:01:58 pm
Sounds like a couple of posters here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on December 24, 2018, 03:50:42 pm
All thoughts and opinions are welcome on this Board, partly because we offer our ideas - and occasional frustrations - with shared good intentions for the Cubs and/or mlb in mind.

To me, it seems like Wittenmyer has a very different agenda coupled with a disinterest in information Cub fans are interested in.  He should have kept covering the Twins, so maybe he could have continued to have unlimited access to the inside information from organizational leaders he seems to crave!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: grrrrlacher on December 24, 2018, 09:15:21 pm
Any chance the Cubs could move Heyward with Happ and Bote and ???  That would clear enough space.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on December 24, 2018, 10:10:34 pm
I’ve seen rumors from less reputable sources that the Cubs have tried to attach Happ or Alzolay and Amaya to Heyward to move him. I have also seen moving Zobrist instead of him. If the Cubs only have to free up $12.5 million that doesn’t seem impossible, even with moving Heyward. If the Cubs need to free up more money it will be painful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on December 26, 2018, 07:39:38 am
The date for pitchers and catchers to report is still listed as TBD.  It can be too far away.  The first exhibition game at Sloan Park is 59 days away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 26, 2018, 09:11:31 am
My guess is February 13.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 26, 2018, 04:32:07 pm
Heyman said today he thinks the Cubs are the favorites for Harper.

He said to keep an eye on them moving money and he mentioned Heyward.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on December 26, 2018, 05:00:52 pm
Theo has proven to be one creative dude who seems to find ways to get the guys he wants.

However, moving enough money to do what it takes to win the Harper sweepstakes - with Boras as his agent and competing vs the likes of Dodgers - would seem like a monumental challenge for Theo based on what's known!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on December 26, 2018, 05:13:45 pm
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-and-dodgers-shaping-favorites-land-bryce-harper?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 26, 2018, 05:35:50 pm
Heyman said today he thinks the Cubs are the favorites for Harper.

He said to keep an eye on them moving money and he mentioned Heyward.

As has been said here before...remember that Heyman is often a mouthpiece for Boras in the media. Boras has every reason to try to convince the Dodgers (and White Sox and Phillies) that the Cubs are in the Harper market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 26, 2018, 06:44:05 pm
Boras is definitely playing chess rather than checkers here. He wants the Sox and Phillies convinced they have enough of a chance to drive up the price, even though Harper doesn’t plan on signing in either place.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on December 26, 2018, 10:12:17 pm
He also wants the Dodgers convinced that another more desirable team than the White Sox or Phillies is an alternative.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 26, 2018, 10:41:31 pm
You guys should let up.  Boras is a wonderful unselfish human being who just wants his clients to be happy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 26, 2018, 10:53:00 pm
No.  They should let up because Boras is doing his job, and is very good at it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on December 26, 2018, 11:03:36 pm
That's what I said.  There's not a greedy bone in the bastard's body.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 27, 2018, 12:55:40 am
I never said anything about Boras not doing his job - any criticism was implied by you, not me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on December 27, 2018, 01:32:32 am
inferred.... implied.

Tomato.... potato.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on December 27, 2018, 08:02:55 am
Jon Heyman

Verified account
 
@JonHeyman
 12m12 minutes ago
More Jon Heyman Retweeted Bruce Levine
Just to put this into context, I was ONLY answering a question about which of THESE 2 big market teams that may be lurking — dodgers or cubs — is more likely to sign harper. I suggested maybe cubs more likely than LA mostly based on the 2 teams’ recent history w/ big free agents
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on December 27, 2018, 08:52:23 am
In other words, like just about everything "reported", it was pure speculation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 02, 2019, 03:42:04 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dv74xkzVAAEeDid.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 02, 2019, 03:49:17 pm
Bob Tewskbury apparently wrote a book about mental skills in baseball. He talked about his job on this Fangraphs Effectively Wild podcast from last April (interview starts at 41:04):

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1205-baseball-on-the-brain/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 02, 2019, 04:07:06 pm
I'm envisioning the printing of tickets.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 02, 2019, 04:09:46 pm
I'm envisioning the printing of tickets.
Aren't tickets all electronic now?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 02, 2019, 04:10:50 pm
Aren't tickets all electronic now?
I'll have to ask Tewksbury.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on January 02, 2019, 04:57:51 pm
I would have never guessed Loretta was a career .295 hitter.

That's pretty impressive by today's standards.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on January 02, 2019, 05:05:01 pm
Career K/PA of 9.2%.  That helps.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 02, 2019, 06:12:55 pm
Bob Nightengale was on Dave Kaplan's show today and said the Cubs were not in on any big name free agents and were only looking at bullpen help and Kaplan said he's heard the same.

Nightengale did say that could change if they moved Heyward.

He also said if the Cubs dont win the world series that Mark DeRosa or David Ross would be the next manager.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 02, 2019, 06:45:39 pm
So the Cubs haven't signed Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 02, 2019, 07:56:28 pm
Cubs sign catcher Francisco Arcia to a minor league deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 02, 2019, 09:08:10 pm
Tewksbury would be more helpful working with pitchers at throwing strikes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on January 02, 2019, 10:19:33 pm
Quote
I would have never guessed Loretta was a career .295 hitter.

I was pretty surprised when I heard that.  Yes, batting average is overrated, but you don't average .295 over a career without knowing quite a bit about hitting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 02, 2019, 10:30:39 pm
They didn't bother to shift on Loretta.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 02, 2019, 11:18:02 pm
I would have never guessed Loretta was a career .295 hitter.

That's pretty impressive by today's standards.

I don't know, I always remembered Loretta as a really solid all-around player.  Sounds like a nice hire.  He might not be a bad guy to groom for the managerial job someday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 02, 2019, 11:47:54 pm
I remember when we had Mark Grudzielanek that a lot of the posters here compared him to Loretta.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 03, 2019, 12:04:19 am
Fun fact...In his career, Mark Loretta performed better in MVP voting than likely future (undeserving) Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 03, 2019, 12:12:34 am
It's just a shame what a train wreck the Hall of Fame has turned into the last 10 years or so.  What used to be a great attention getting moment for baseball has just turned into a sore eye with deserving players left out and undeserving/questionable players slipping through the cracks in the veteran's committee.

Baseball really needs go Defcon 1 in getting that fixed so it's a PR positive again in the era of the NFL and NBA getting most of the sports media attention.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 03, 2019, 10:29:13 am
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25668790/do-cubs-enough-keep-baseball-toughest-division
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 03, 2019, 10:33:52 am
It's just a shame what a train wreck the Hall of Fame has turned into the last 10 years or so.  What used to be a great attention getting moment for baseball has just turned into a sore eye with deserving players left out and undeserving/questionable players slipping through the cracks in the veteran's committee.

Baseball really needs go Defcon 1 in getting that fixed so it's a PR positive again in the era of the NFL and NBA getting most of the sports media attention.
They'll soon announce an Elite wing and a So-So DoubleWide Trailer for the others.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 03, 2019, 03:02:19 pm
John Ourland of the Buisness Sports Journal is reporting the Cubs are shooting for $6/month carriage fee for their new network.

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/03/pundit-suggests-a-6-per-month-fee-for-a-new-cubs-network-theres-actually-a-lot-to-unpack-there/

Bleacher nation breaks it down, but if the Cubs shot for $6/month it would be more expensive than what the Dodgers tried to launch their RSN at $4.5 a month and more than what YES is charging/month.  I found a Tribune article saying that CSN Chicago was $3.86/month in 2016.

He also goes into to why partnering with Sinclair could be useful to to the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 03, 2019, 04:51:18 pm
Cubs still haven't signed Harper?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 03, 2019, 05:10:55 pm
Charging more and spending less.

Smh...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 03, 2019, 05:11:35 pm
John Ourland of the Buisness Sports Journal is reporting the Cubs are shooting for $6/month carriage fee for their new network.

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/03/pundit-suggests-a-6-per-month-fee-for-a-new-cubs-network-theres-actually-a-lot-to-unpack-there/

Bleacher nation breaks it down, but if the Cubs shot for $6/month it would be more expensive than what the Dodgers tried to launch their RSN at $4.5 a month and more than what YES is charging/month.  I found a Tribune article saying that CSN Chicago was $3.86/month in 2016.

He also goes into to why partnering with Sinclair could be useful to to the Cubs.

The solution to the problem seems to be simple.  Just move out of Illinois and subscribe to MLB.com.  An obvious win-win situation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 03, 2019, 05:57:20 pm
Charging more and spending less.

Smh...

Cubs currently have their highest payroll ever...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 03, 2019, 05:59:27 pm
Starting to look like Strop is going to open 2019 as the closer and that Cubs are going to look for a bullpen bargain (or two) late in the off-season.

Still hoping Cubs are going to surprise us with a January signing or a trade for a reliever of stature.

I’m fine with Strop as the 2019 closer. He’s been really good with the Cubs and his newer cutter is nasty.

Lightning-In-The-Bottle wish for Maples to get a real shot for late inning work and harness his command. That could dramatically upgrade bullpen, but, Yeah, it’s a longshot
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 03, 2019, 06:05:32 pm
Cubs currently have their highest payroll ever...

Cubs (and all MLB teams) could spend a lot more than they do and still make a ton of money, though.

The owners really did a great job in the last CBA negotiations. The luxury tax basically has the same impact that collusion would, but the union agreed to it so it's not illegal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 03, 2019, 07:24:03 pm
The Cubs have plenty of money and could easily afford Harper. The rumor is that the Cubs will be getting around $200 million/year on their TV deal. Throw in National TV money and attendance and that is $400+ million/year in revenue.  Has anybody said what is going to happen to the Cubs 20% stake in CSN Chicago?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 04, 2019, 11:51:53 am
The Cubs reportedly tried to sign Tulowitzki to be their starting SS at least during Russell's suspension, but lost out on him to the Yankees.


https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/this-new-info-about-troy-tulowitzki-makes-you-wonder-about-yankees-and-manny-machado/302375454
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 04, 2019, 12:10:07 pm
Cubs signed Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on January 04, 2019, 12:46:42 pm
Quote
at least during Russell's suspension

That's about how long I'd bank on him staying healthy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 04, 2019, 12:58:42 pm
Weird that he'd choose a team with a multi-month hole currently at SS over the offer of a starting job for 28 games. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 04, 2019, 02:12:51 pm
I feel sure that most teams could afford to go over the salary cap level.  However, most teams do not want to suffer the penalties that go along with that cap level, especially the non-financial penalties.  When the next labor contract is negotiated, I would expect the cap level will be raised substantially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 05, 2019, 10:36:41 am
Theo Epstein on MLB’s tax threshold: “The CBT threshold is not dictating any of our actions or inactions this winter at all. We're not governed by that."--Levine
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 05, 2019, 03:50:07 pm
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch
Free agent signing that #Cubs fans should keep an eye on: RHP Colin Rea. Source tells me the Cascade, Iowa native is on Chicago's radar.


Sounds about right for this bargain basement offseason. Might not even be shopping in the Jake Diekman/Brad Brach tier of relievers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 05, 2019, 04:44:05 pm
Sounds like a candidate for the Des Moines/Chicago express.  They sign a handful of them every winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 05, 2019, 05:18:15 pm
https://youtu.be/_IHUMr1JS_c
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 05, 2019, 05:44:12 pm
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch
Free agent signing that #Cubs fans should keep an eye on: RHP Colin Rea. Source tells me the Cascade, Iowa native is on Chicago's radar.


Sounds about right for this bargain basement offseason. Might not even be shopping in the Jake Diekman/Brad Brach tier of relievers.

OMG the Cubs might sign a minor league free agent. Cheap bastards.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 05, 2019, 06:21:24 pm
Theo interview was depressing as fuc k.  Not just for this offseason but the next few.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 05, 2019, 07:51:12 pm
Yeah, Theo had the temerity to note that Cubs have averaged 97 wins over last three seasons and will be a Top Five payroll in 2019.

Didn’t mention that 2019 will be second year in a row that Cubs payroll higher than the Yankees.

The Cheapskates! 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 05, 2019, 08:17:02 pm
Kool aid is delicious.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 05, 2019, 08:24:35 pm
Your right the Cubs suck. They should just rebuild.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 05, 2019, 08:29:54 pm
Kool aid is delicious.

Actually, Cubs 2019 payroll is more in the territory of a fine aperitiff followed by a delighful French Bordeaux with dinner. Maybe an after-dinner Port too?

Enjoy your Kool aid.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 05, 2019, 08:31:26 pm
Who knows about the future, but 5 years or so ago Theo was certainly being ripped hard by Wittemeyer and other media folks for not spending more etc.

Theo seems quite transparent about hi-level strategy, but he'd be a fool to reveal all of his cards...and he's certainly no fool! 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 05, 2019, 09:05:36 pm
Here is a summary of Theo's interview.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/key-points-theo-epsteins-radio-interview-cubs-offseason
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 05, 2019, 10:40:46 pm
Thanks much, Ron.  Helpful to read. 

The comments on Morrow were really encouraging.  I've kind of had the sense that he was going to miss a bunch of season and not be useful.  But if he was back by May and was actually a serious contributor, that could be a huge boost. 

Theo is usually really cautious and guarded re rehabs.  So I thought his unreserved confidence about Darvish being fully ready for spring is also encouraging.  Obviously being healthy doesn't mean he won't be wild and give up lots of HR, but *IF* he's healthy he might at least have a chance to be effective. 

Not sure what to take from the lux tax stuff.  It's obvious their budget is already so massive that lux tax was never a question, for this year.  But I kinda took the comments to suggest that he does have some capacity to spend, even if he hasn't done so yet. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 05, 2019, 11:28:37 pm
Yeah, in 2018 we kind of knew Cubs wanted to stay just under the luxury tax—-and we knew what was the luxury tax threshold. So, do the math.

In 2019, that threshold is irrelevant to the Cubs, so we really have very little idea what the payroll limit will be. All we know is that Theo is operating under some, unknown number that has to stay under—at least perhaps without some kind of ownership change of mind under special circumstances, maybe.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 05, 2019, 11:49:12 pm
Yeah, in 2018 we kind of knew Cubs wanted to stay just under the luxury tax—-and we knew what was the luxury tax threshold. So, do the math.

In 2019, that threshold is irrelevant to the Cubs, so we really have very little idea what the payroll limit will be. All we know is that Theo is operating under some, unknown number that has to stay under—at least perhaps without some kind of ownership change of mind under special circumstances, maybe.

Actual budget limits.... the damb ba$tards!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 05, 2019, 11:54:09 pm
https://youtu.be/_IHUMr1JS_c

I'm not a big fan of country, don't recall having heard that one before, and it really doesn't belong on this page.... but that's a really good song.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 05, 2019, 11:54:52 pm
So all of this means the Cubs still haven't signed Harper?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 06, 2019, 12:03:42 am
Would have been nice -- https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-reportedly-wanted-add-troy-tulowitzki-starting-shortstop
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 07, 2019, 09:34:08 am
Rosenthal repeats what we've heard before--the Cubs will have to move money if they even want to sign a mid-level reliever:

https://theathletic.com/753212/2019/01/07/rosenthal-why-the-cubs-are-in-a-bind-the-meaning-behind-the-mets-moves-ex-manager-finds-interesting-new-gig/

I'm expecting a third place, non-playoff finish this year. This team had several needs in the lineup and the bullpen. Unless there is a big change in direction, they're just not going to address them. Also, each time we get a report like this, the decision to tender Russell becomes more confusing and indefensible.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 07, 2019, 11:10:19 am
I generally like Rosenthal, but this strikes me as a pretty typical off-season let's-figure-out-something-to-write-about-when there's-nothing-to-write-about story. It's not like Rosenthal hasn't ever done this sort of thing before.

Saying that "major league sources" claim that the Cubs would need to "to clear money to sign even a modestly priced reliever such as free-agent righty Adam Warren" seems dubious to me. 

We'll see, I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 11:37:04 am
I think it is also a roster crunch.  To add anybody to the bullpen they need to get rid of Kintzler, Duensing or Chatwood.  Considering that they are over the tax that will cost them a multiple of the salary.  The same goes for position players, they don't have the roster space.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 11:44:09 am
From Epstein piece on Saturday that Ron linked: 

'Epstein seems confident in the Cubs' roster as it currently stands."They're a motivated and determined bunch," he said. "I wouldn't bet against us."'

This has been a consistent perspective from Theo since the season ended, that the roster is excellent and capable, and that improved heart and determination will result in more success.  (I also get ben's point, that whether they finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in 2019, we'll always have 2016, and we have no right to ask for equal or more success...) 

We'll see how the season plays out.  I admit I have some hesitation, but maybe Theo knows best that more determination will result in improved performance?  Several thoughts:
1.  Arguing that guys will be better due to physical reasons, that's a completely reasonable/plausible argument to make.  I get the view that Rizzo had health issues, Contreras was overworked, Bryant was gone, Russell missed time and played hurt, and that the late-season run exhausted them physically.  But, that isn't really Theo's "determination" argument!
2.  Russell's off-field issues make him a unique case.   
3.  But for guys like Schwarber/Happ/Heyward/Bote, I struggle with the idea that issues are about determination/will/heart rather than just simply hitting talent?  We've gotten much positive buzz on their heart and will and want-to; are their limits as hitters really about want-to and trying-harder, as opposed to physical/talent factors that will not be much improved by being more determined and wanting to get more hits this year?  I'm not sure how I see "determination" as being the solution for them? 
4.  Or, is maybe the "determination" issue from Theo less about determination during in-game 4-minute AB's, and more about wine-women-and-song?  In Theo's mind does he expect "motivated and determined" guys to cut back on booze, drugs, affairs, and nightlife, so that minds and bodies will be better prepared for games?  I wouldn't think that's what he's talking about, but who knows. 

Anyway, I think it will be an interesting story to see how Theo and the players speak of the "determination" impact this year, and to see whether there are some shifts in performance.  Obviously the cause for improvements will be hard to determine:  If a guy hits better, is it because he and new batting coach made physical adjustment?  Is it because he's more determined and wants to get hits more? Is it because he's a little healthier this year?  Too complex an interplay to ever determine cause-effect. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on January 07, 2019, 12:04:53 pm
I feel that the Cubs need some infusion of additional offensive talent.  Not necessarily on the level of Harper or Machado, but more than just marginal improvement.  Relying on the existing players to perform better is not sufficient.  I would be surprised and disappointed if Theo doesn't feel the same way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 12:35:23 pm
I think it is also a roster crunch.  To add anybody to the bullpen they need to get rid of Kintzler, Duensing or Chatwood.  ..

Last year Maddon went with 8-man pen, and had 9 for a while.  I think you're envisioning a 7-man pen this spring?

Roster (with Russell) could look like:
Players 13:
  8 starters (including Russell)
  5 subs:  Caratini, Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote
  Next man up:  Zagunis type guy?

Pitchers 12
   5 starters
   7 relievers:  Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Montomery (4 locks)  Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood (3 bubbly guys)
   DL:  Morrow (for a while)
   Next man up:  Rosario, Maples, Norwood, Underwood, Tseng, guys released from other team's 40-man rosters

Obviously to start both Russell and Morrow will not be available.  So that would put roster at 12+12, with guys like Zagunis, Rosario, and Maples hoping to snag the last spot. 

Suppose after a month Morrow comes back, as Theo hoped on Saturday; and Russell too.  That would then put roster at 13+13, perhaps "crunched"?  At this stage, I'm not sure who would get cut.  Or, if you signed somebody, who would get cut? 

Couple thoughts:
1.  Bote has options, I'd have no problem sending him down if need be. 
2.  The odds that no pitcher or player need to go on the DL by the time MOrrow and Russell come back seem slim. 
3.  One view might be that the Morrow DL would give an extra month to sift through Kintzler/Duensing/Chatwood? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 01:04:58 pm
Last year Maddon went with 8-man pen, and had 9 for a while.  I think you're envisioning a 7-man pen this spring?

Roster (with Russell) could look like:
Players 13:
8 starters (including Russell)
5 subs:  Caratini, Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote

Pitchers 12

The Cubs have 13 pitchers already under contract/control

Starters
Lester ($27.5 million)
Darvisn ($20 million)
Hamels ($20 million)
Quintana ($10.5 million)
Hendricks (ARB2)
Bullpen
Marrow ($9 million)
Strop ($6.25 million)
Ciskek ($6.5 million
Edwards (ARB1)
Chatwood ($12.5 million)
Montgomery (ARB1)
Kintler ($5 million)
Duensing ($3.5 million)

That is 13 pitchers already under contract, so to bring somebody in somebody has to go. 

The Cubs are currently sitting at $228 million for the CBT, so they are in the second tier already, that is a 32% tax on any overage. 

To cut Duensing it is $4.2million.
Kintzler is $6 million.
Chatwood is $15 million for this year alone.

Then you need to get the replacement. so for Adam Warren who is expected to get between $5-6 million/year with the CBT it is $6.6-7.92 million + the person you are cutting.  So adding Warren would be $10.8 million on the low end.  Just adding Chavez would have been $9.48 million.

I might be wrong, but I think the money is there to add people, they just need to clear space on the roster first and just cutting somebody isn't a great use of money, because at some point the Cubs do have a limit to what they can spend.  So I could see a scenario where the Cubs say to a free agent pitcher we need to move somebody before we can sign you and the agents take it as the Cubs have no money and have to clear dollars to sign my guy.  Just like replacing La Stella with Descalso.  Did the Cubs have to move La Stella because of money or because they didn't have space for him?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 01:05:44 pm
Seems to me that if your pitching staff has Montgomery, Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing as your 9-12 guys, and Rosario and Maples as next man up the day Edwards has some shoulder stiffness or Darvish has some elbow stuff, that's a really vulnerable staff. 

Given how Maddon doesn't like to trust relievers, giving him only a 7-man pen in which Chatwood, Edwards, Kintzler, Duensing, and Montgomery make up 5/7 of the pen, I admit that's kinda scary.  Admit I'm also a little scared that after getting use so heavily last year, that Cishek might come back and look more like Kintzler than the Cishek we remember?  Could be a really vulnerable deal. 

But, I guess who knows.  Maybe Chatwood in a different role and with a clean start and a new pitching coach, maybe he'll emerge as a really good rubber-arm reliever?  Maybe by April 20th Morrow will be back and 100%, and will be doing great?  Maybe Kintzler will be back to the strike-throwing ground-ball machine he was in past, and will pitch a lot of no-nonsense quick-inning outings?  Maybe Rosario or Maples will make some step and be good?  Maybe on of the 40-man cuts will end up being the next Chavez?  And maybe by May 20 Alzolay will be up and looking like a weapon? 

Or maybe by May 20 Alzolay will be looking good enough at Iowa to trade for some big-league reliever, or something? 

So many things are unpredictable, last winter at this point I never would have guessed that Rosario would get 4 wins, or that Bote would hit a couple of 9th-inning game-winners or anything.  So maybe some dudes like Alan Mills or Rowan Wick or James Norwood will end up being critical and effective members of the pen at some point. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 01:21:27 pm
I'm not saying I love the bullpen, just that they don't have an obvious path to an upgrade without trading people first.

3.  But for guys like Schwarber/Happ/Heyward/Bote, I struggle with the idea that issues are about determination/will/heart rather than just simply hitting talent?  We've gotten much positive buzz on their heart and will and want-to; are their limits as hitters really about want-to and trying-harder, as opposed to physical/talent factors that will not be much improved by being more determined and wanting to get more hits this year?  I'm not sure how I see "determination" as being the solution for them? 

Schwarber doesn't belong in this group.

In MLB he ranked
tied for 63rd by wRC+
tied for 61st in wOBA
44th in OPS
53rd in fWAR

Schwarber may not be a superstar hitter yet, but he still is a very, very good MLB hitter and he'd be difficult to upgrade on in LF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 01:37:17 pm
The Cubs have 13 pitchers already under contract/control

...Chatwood ($12.5 million)
Kintler ($5 million)
Duensing ($3.5 million)...

That is 13 pitchers already under contract, so to bring somebody in somebody has to go. 
The Cubs are currently sitting at $228 million for the CBT, so they are in the second tier already, that is a 32% tax on any overage. 

....Then you need to get the replacement. so for Adam Warren who is expected to get between $5-6 million/year with the CBT it is $6.6-7.92 million + the person you are cutting.  So adding Warren would be $10.8 million on the low end.  Just adding Chavez would have been $9.48 million.....

Yeah, having so many multi-year guaranteed contracts to cats like Kintzler and Duensing is kind of a bummer. 

But, that's water under the bridge, money already committed.  You're paying them whether you keep them or not. 

Blue, are you saying that you're paying $10.8 for the roster spot, since you pay $5 (Warren) + $3.5 (Duensing) + 32% ($1.6 on Warren + $1.1 on Duensing) = $11.2 composite for that roster spot? 

I guess I see the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts as sunk costs.  The cost of signing some potential upgrade is simply Salary + 32%.  No more, no less.  If they sign a $5 guy to replace Chatwood, they should view that as a $5 + 32% cost, rather than factoring in the sunk $16.5 on Chatwood.  Whether a guy is superior enough to be worth cost + 32% is the only question.

If Chatwood stinks and Rosario is more usable, the cost of cutting Chatwood ($12.5 + 32% = $16.5), you're paying that anyway, and Rosario is simply $0.7 ($.545 + 32%).  If the performance upgrade isn't worth $0.7, don't make the move; if it is, don't let the sunk Chatwood contract stop you.  If that makes sense?   

But yeah, I can totally see where they'd like to see how these guys are looking and feeling in camp, and maybe improvise later.  Maybe all three will be reasonable average.  And maybe once Morrow is back, you'll need to cut somebody and that's when you drop the worst of the three? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 01:54:49 pm

Schwarber doesn't belong in this group.

....Schwarber may not be a superstar hitter yet, but he still is a very, very good MLB hitter and he'd be difficult to upgrade on in LF.

You're talking a different concept from Theo.  Theo plans to bring the same starting lineup back, with the expectation that starters other than Bryant will upgrade upon themselves by being motivated and determined. 

I'm questioning whether more ***determination*** can make Schwarber a better hitter? 

My feeling is that he *can* reproduce the production that you like, and that he *might* get better and improve.  (I hope he does.) 

But I *don't* think being more determined, on it's own, is likely to cause improvement for him?  I suspect he's been plenty determined for each of the last two seasons, and certainly motivated for this last one?  *IF* he does improve, I think it will probably involve some kind of *physical* adjustments, to create a healthier back or cover his holes better, or to use the opposite field better, or to add more launch angle, or something *physical* like that. 

Not just a motivational bump?   I think if he's just more motivated and determined than ever, but has the same stance and stroke and approach as the last two years, he'll probably have comparable outcome?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 01:58:58 pm
I do imagine that Schwarber's rate numbers might improve even if he changes nothing, **if** Maddon further reduces his exposure to LHP? 
*He slugged .303 versus LHP last year, in 76 AB.
*Obviously you can't take away all of his LHP AB, and opposing managers are going to bring in LHP to face him, particular in significant situations. 
*But **IF** Maddon could somehow reduce his AB vs LHP, (~18% last year), maybe his OPS would look better? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 02:42:32 pm
Schwarber had a bad back for 2 months and had a wRC+ of 95 and 84 during those months.  His lowest wRC+ outside of that was 113, so I think he can improve with just health.  I guess I'm pushing back on the though that Schwarber *needs* to improve.

The Cubs have a budget of $X.  They need to improve the roster and still leave a cushion for trades at the deadline.  By cutting Duensing it is $X- (his salary + replacement).  If you trade him it is just $X- replacement.  Maybe X is $228, $230, $250.  I have no clue.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 07, 2019, 03:16:35 pm
The idea that Schwarber might improve on basis of improved health is a reasonable physical argument.  No argument from me against that possibility.  It's not Theo's stated motivation+dedication reason; but it's certainly a plausible explanation for how he might improve his performance. 

As for the desire to dump our bad salaries, I think we all like that!  :):) If somebody wants to trade for Duensing's salary, maybe somebody will want Kintzler, Chatwood, and Heyward too! 

I think part of the challenge for trading bad contracts is deciding what assets you're willing to give away to induce somebody to absorb them.  I wouldn't trade Hoerner to induce somebody to take Duensing.  Part of Hoyer's problem, I think, is that the farm system is so poor that they don't have stock, much less surplus stock, of minor league assets that they can attach.  If you had a dozen guys ≥ HOerner and Amaya, maybe you'd be fine to attach them to Duensing and Kintzler to get teams to take your bad contracts.  But the Cubs just don't have the farm system at present to move bad contracts. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 07, 2019, 03:26:56 pm
craig - I think you are possibly overthinking or over-emphasizing the "determination" thing. I don't think Theo is even capable of being that simplistic in his thinking. Seems to me that he's made clear there were a number of problems with the offense last year. The so called "determination" or urgency or whatever related to the sense that "we're the Cubs, everything will work out in the end" during periods of under-performance.  He's said that repeatedly.

Another reported issue last season was the mixed messages in approach at the plate: such as "launch angle" and hitting the ball hard vs. the Chili Davis approach. I believe it has been suggested this was particularly problematic for some of the younger players (not Bryant or Rizzo for example).  Maybe Contreras, Almora, Happ? Don't know whether Schwarber might have been in that group or not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 03:34:29 pm
I don’t care if you had 10 Hoerner and Amaya’s you wouldn’t trade them for Duensing or Kintzler contracts.

Duensing and Kintzler would be more Alex Lange or Zach Short ish level of prospects or you trade 1 for a backup catcher bad contract.

Amaya and Hoerner would only be available for Heyward dump or 1 of them Chatwood with no bad money coming back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 07, 2019, 04:49:53 pm
I agree with Ron.  I don't think that Epstein believes, or meant to say, that determination alone will cause these players to improve.  I think it is more likely that he believes they are playing below their talent level, and that this can be corrected more easily by a determined player than a complacent one.  Right from the beginning, Epstein the others have stressed in draft choices, free agents and trades that character is an important consideration in evaluating a player.  In the interview, I took it to mean that he was merely reiterating that concept.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 07, 2019, 08:40:32 pm
Cubs Prospects
@cubprospects
 
The Cubs signed Colin Rea to a minor league contract. I saw @TommyBirch report the Cubs interest. Rea struggled in a return from injury in 2018 between AA and AAA in the Padres system.

Rea’s overall numbers from last year were not good, but here’s to guessing the Cubs saw something in late season scouting that piqued their interest. Because Rea’s last 5 appearances, all in AAA, were very good: 20 IP, 13 H, 1.80 ERA, 10 BB, 23 K.

The above Twitter account is worth a follow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 07, 2019, 10:09:49 pm
Craig, let me state my position re Theo:

1. it would be unwise for him to share every bit of his 2019 plan with the public;

2. there is likely A LOT we don't know (and may never know) about what his 2019 plan really is;

3. over the past FOUR years, he's led the Cubs to the best record in baseball (AND a World Championship) - coupled with his record before he took over the Cubs, he's earned the benefit of the doubt as to whether he has a good plan for 2019; and,

4. I disagree with the idea that the essence of his plan is to exhort his players to have more "determination," particularly given how strategic Theo has proven to be over his years leading consistently successful Boston and Chicago franchises (that, previously, couldn't sniff top-level success).

This isn't prior Cub front offices, when we had good reason to worry whether our leaders had ANY strategic plan, let alone a good one.  We're still being led by the best in the business (as his Cub record and MLB body of work proves).  And that does give me hope for 2019, even though we haven't heard a lot from Theo about what the plan actually is.

And, since it's MLB (and we're in a VERY tough division), who the hell knows how things will turn out for us in 2019?
 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 07, 2019, 10:58:42 pm
We sucked for years in order to get this young core and now its time to **** or get off the pot for some of them.

I get that.

Even as currently constructed we're still one of the top 5 teams in the NL.

I get that.

What concerns me is the reluctance to even try to add what few pieces we need.

Bryce Harper isn't necessary but a couple relievers and a leadoff man are and Ive seen no effort to even try to get that done.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 08:49:56 am
 It would be nice if Theo would give daily or weekly updates on how he is trying to improve the team, but that isn’t going to happen and unless you have hacked Theo’s phone there isn’t going to be any evidence of how the Cubs are trying to improve the team.

The Cubs need for a leadoff hitter is a need created on this board. The bullpen needs some work, but the high leverage guys are already on the team.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 08, 2019, 09:53:58 am
The Cubs need another hitter or two, period. And a leadoff guy makes a lot of sense because it means guys like Rizzo and Daniel Murphy aren't forced to hit there for significant portions of the season instead of down in the lineup where they can do more damage. I also think baseball analysts have been too quick to conclude that lineup construction doesn't really matter just because there's no real impact on total runs scored.

Who are the high leverage guys who are already on the team? Strop and Cishek, sure...but you need more than two high leverage guys. Morrow has been hurt in almost every year of his career, Edwards has repeatedly collapsed in high leverage situations, Montgomery doesn't miss bats the way you'd like from a high leverage guy, and Kintzler and Duensing just aren't very good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 08, 2019, 11:40:48 am
craig - I think you are possibly overthinking or over-emphasizing the "determination" thing. I don't think Theo is even capable of being that simplistic in his thinking. Seems to me that he's made clear there were a number of problems with the offense last year...

You may be right.  But he does repeat the determination/urgency thing in every interview or conversation that I've heard or seen reported.  (It's well possible that I've missed many, though; so my perception may be way off!  :))  And he does so with a persuasive sincerity; maybe Occam's Razor applies and he means it, and sees that as a non-exclusive but really important avenue for improvement? 

To some degree, he may have little option?  What are the fundamental ways that a team improves itself?
1.  By adding new personnel,  or 2.  By improvement of existing personnel. 

Improvement of Personnel:  How do you add new personnel? 
1.  Free Agency  2.  Bringing up minor league talent.  3.  Trades

1.  FA:  He's added Descalzo, the one roster addition.  But costs for young building blocks are rapidly exploding as they transition from pre-arb through the arb years, and will continue to do so in future years.  So to some degree he's already done his free agency spending during the years the kids were still cheap.  He's already made the primary investments in Lester, Zobrist, Hayward, and Darvish.  And lesser ones in Chatwood, Morrow, Cishek, Duensing, and now Descalzo.  For a while, maybe he's just got to ride the investments that he's made?
 
2.  Farm, minor league talent:  Theo doesn't have any lineup/hitting improvements available from the minors, this spring or for a while.  It's been ≥5 years since the farm glory years (Cease was 2014 draft), and those guys are up or traded (Eloy, Cease, Torres.)  Who knows, the pitching might get some help at some point this season?  (Maybe Alzolay or Rosario, or perhaps some support work from Norwood or Mekkes or Underwood or somebody like that?)  But if something was "broken" with the offense, call-ups from Iowa and Tennessee aren't fixing it this year. 
 
3.  Trades:  They've talked.  But without surplus of talent that other teams want a lot, and without minor-league talent, they understandably haven't found deals that they thought would improve the roster, or the offense. 

So, if there was something "broken" with the offense, what is Theo supposed to do in terms of strategy?  He can tinker at the edges (Descalzo), or maybe with a small trade, but he doesn't have much to work with.  Without discretionary cash, minor league talent, or talent-surplus at any big-league spot, he lacks assets for doing big strategic things to add significantly helpful major personnel from outside.  It's just the way it is. 

Any improvement needs to come from Descalzo like fringes, or from guys coming back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 11:47:45 am
The Cubs need another hitter or two, period. And a leadoff guy makes a lot of sense because it means guys like Rizzo and Daniel Murphy aren't forced to hit there for significant portions of the season instead of down in the lineup where they can do more damage. I also think baseball analysts have been too quick to conclude that lineup construction doesn't really matter just because there's no real impact on total runs scored.

Who are the high leverage guys who are already on the team? Strop and Cishek, sure...but you need more than two high leverage guys. Morrow has been hurt in almost every year of his career, Edwards has repeatedly collapsed in high leverage situations, Montgomery doesn't miss bats the way you'd like from a high leverage guy, and Kintzler and Duensing just aren't very good.

The Cubs have 6 returning starters with a wRC+ of 100 or better.  Happ was 109, Heyward was a 99, Bote 95 and Almora 89.  The Cubs have plenty of good hitters, if you want to improve the offense you need to add a Machado or Harper or go with what you have. 

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ????

Where all the bullpens that go 4 deep in high leverage guys that don't have questions.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 08, 2019, 12:03:52 pm
So, if they can't add talent from outside (FA), and can't add talent from the farm, that basically necessitates that improvement, if it is to happen, needs to necessarily come from the inside.  As an administrator, I'm not sure how much Theo can strategically do there.  Or how much he can tell fans in press conferences. 

But basically, I think internal improvement can hypothetically come from 3 sources:
1.  Improved Health   
2.  Coaching and physical/mechanical improvements   
3.  Improved mental stuff, Theo's urgency/motivation/determination. 

As Ron notes, Theo talks much about the 3rd, but they can very realistically hope for significant improvement in terms of health (#1), and they will certainly be looking for not only improvements in determination (#3) but also in physical/mechanical adjustments, with the coaching changes and stuff.   

**Health** seems a huge opportunity.  Bryant, Darvish, and Morrow, *if* you get them back at 100% health *AND* playing at their peaks (being back doesn't guarantee that they'll play great, of course), that would be huge. 

But I also expect when camp opens, we'll get multiple stories about guys who report having played through varying injuries at reduced capacity.  CubBlueJay would suggest Schwarber and Russell for sure; Rizzo early on; I suspect we might well find out that was true for many others as well (Heyward, Zobrist, Almora, Willson....)  A bunch of these guys may end up healthier in 2019, and be much more productive as a result. 

**Mechanical**.  Guys are always trying to tinker and adjust.  A pitcher's stride, grip, arm slot, pitch distribution.  Small corrections can cause significant improvement; which can also build confidence and a healthy spiral of improvement. 

For the "broken" offense, obviously there is all the launch-angle and new hitting-coach stuff and opposite field.  Based on the exit interviews some of the hitters didn't think they got the best help.  Hopefully some new adjustments will help.   

It's not easy, of course, and perhaps even as a hitter is adapting/improving to some degree, opposing pitchers may take increasing advantage of known vulnerabilities?  After 35.4% (per AB) whiff rate as rookie, Happ and coaches did a LOT of analysis and had some really thoughtful adjustments for 2019.  Yes the whiff-rate climbed to 43.2%.  The league has a pretty obvious book on how to attack him.  Is there any question but that he and team analysts have been hunting and looking for months for some adjustments in his stance, stride, load, swing-path that can help him?  If he finds no solution, it certainly won't be for lack of desire/determination/motivation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 08, 2019, 12:51:34 pm
The Cubs have 6 returning starters with a wRC+ of 100 or better.  Happ was 109, Heyward was a 99, Bote 95 and Almora 89.  The Cubs have plenty of good hitters, if you want to improve the offense you need to add a Machado or Harper or go with what you have. 

Those six hitters include:

Rizzo (125), who is remarkably consistent and a very good hitter.
Baez (131), who broke out last year, but had a previous high wRC+ of 98--it's probably more likely than not that he regresses some next year.
Bryant (125), who was much worse from mid-May on and had a shoulder injury that two month-long DL stints didn't help. There's no guarantee he'll be that hitter again.
Zobrist (123), who is 38, was a part time player last year, and will likely be more of a part time player this year.
Schwarber (115), who can't hit lefties.
Happ (109), who is a part time player.

My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 


Morrow is a good high leverage pitcher when healthy. But what is the over/under on innings pitched? 25? 30? And while Joe tries to use Edwards as a high leverage pitcher, that doesn't mean that he is one. He has been significantly worse in high leverage situations in his career:

Low leverage: 34.9% K%, 10.7 BB%; 2.67/2.97 FIP/xFIP.
Medium leverage: 35.9% K%, 14.8% BB%; 2.97/3.38 FIP/xFIP.
High leverage: 27.3% K%; 17.4 BB%; 4.53/4.65 FIP/xFIP.

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ??? ?

And how many of those teams are still looking to add high leverage relievers? All of them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 01:09:40 pm

...But basically, I think internal improvement can hypothetically come from 3 sources:
1.  Improved Health   
2.  Coaching and physical/mechanical improvements   
3.  Improved mental stuff, Theo's urgency/motivation/determination. 

As Ron notes, Theo talks much about the 3rd, but they can very realistically hope for significant improvement in terms of health (#1), and they will certainly be looking for not only improvements in determination (#3) but also in physical/mechanical adjustments, with the coaching changes and stuff.....

Maybe Theo doesn’t talk about it as much, but I think the biggest factor for offensive improvement compared to post-Break 2018 is AGE. 

Almost the entire starting lineup will be playing at an age when guys tend to hit their prime. Everybody is under 30, except Zobrist. Schwarber 26, Contreras 27, Almora 25, Bryant 27, Russell 25, Happ 24, Baez 26. Rizzo and Heyward 29.

You would expect a group like this to be in gear for upcoming season—as they were pre-Break 2018, which we tend to forget mostly because of recency bias and post-season.

Theo addressed—early in off-season—complacency as a post-Break culprit (among other things). Think that’s a bit more subtle a concept than just Gritting Your Teeth and Doing Better for 2019. Think more of a reminder that these guys are in prime years by historical baseball standards and let’s act like it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 01:18:25 pm
Those six hitters include:

Rizzo (125), who is remarkably consistent and a very good hitter.
Baez (131), who broke out last year, but had a previous high wRC+ of 98--it's probably more likely than not that he regresses some next year.
Bryant (125), who was much worse from mid-May on and had a shoulder injury that two month-long DL stints didn't help. There's no guarantee he'll be that hitter again.
Zobrist (123), who is 38, was a part time player last year, and will likely be more of a part time player this year.
Schwarber (115), who can't hit lefties.
Happ (109), who is a part time player.


My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 

Morrow is a good high leverage pitcher when healthy. But what is the over/under on innings pitched? 25? 30? And while Joe tries to use Edwards as a high leverage pitcher, that doesn't mean that he is one. He has been significantly worse in high leverage situations in his career:

Low leverage: 34.9% K%, 10.7 BB%; 2.67/2.97 FIP/xFIP.
Medium leverage: 35.9% K%, 14.8% BB%; 2.97/3.38 FIP/xFIP.
High leverage: 27.3% K%; 17.4 BB%; 4.53/4.65 FIP/xFIP.

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ??? ?


And how many of those teams are still looking to add high leverage relievers? All of them.

Happ was included, it was Contreras with a 100 as the sixth.

IF Bryant isn't MVP Bryant then adding 2 hitters doesn't matter.  If Bryant is a league average hitter literally the only way to fix the offense is Harper/Machado.
Baez might regress, but that doesn't mean he'll drop to a 98 either.  He could still be a 115-120 and he'd be 4 WAR player.
Zobrist was 4th on the Cubs in PA with 520. 
Schwarber can't hit lefties and Baez couldn't hit righties until last year.  Sometimes guys improve.

The Cubs didn't suffer from strike outs or low OBP last year.  The slugging disappeared in the 2nd half.  That was the Cubs achilles heal. The Cubs still scored the 9th most runs in baseball last year, despite a horrible last 2 months.



Edwards has a grand total of 28 IP in high leverage situations in his career.  1-2 bad outings will through off those numbers.  Edwards has elite stuff and he needs to take a jump, but he isn't a bad 4th option for high leverage situations.

I will take the over on Marrow throwing 30 IP, unless you think he is going to miss even more time this year.

And who are those high leverage relievers that each team is going to add? 

You have become irrationally negative on the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 01:31:39 pm

...My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.....

Dysfunctional and don’t fit together as a unit??

This unit led the NL in runs scored pre-Break 2018 (outscoring Brewers by 50 runs).

Led NL in runs scored in 2017 (except Rockies/Coors).

Led NL in runs scored in 2016 (except Rockies/Coors).

The only significant missing piece for 2019 is the 2016 version of Fowler, but that ought to be (in a normal baseball world) met or outweighed by the age/prime considerations discussed in previous post.

Yes, it would be nice if Cubs could bring in a quality leadoff guy and bump down a spot the “big bats”....but that is a long way from “dysfunctional and don’t fit together as a unit.”

Post-Break 2018 is not irrelevant. Will grant you that. But, there is a bigger track record here and coupled with Age/Prime considerations, this SHOULD be a terrific offense in 2019. Whether it WILL be remains to be seen because, well, It’s Baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 08, 2019, 01:59:51 pm
Dysfunctional and don’t fit together as a unit??

Yes, dysfunctional and not fitting together as a unit. There is more to run scoring than just total runs scored.  Consistency matters too.

The 2016 team was legitimately a great hitting team. They scored a lot of runs and did it consistently.

The 2017 team was much more of an all-or-nothing team. They still scored a lot of runs, but they also got shut down much more often. (They also scored in double digits a lot more often.)

The 2018 team was MUCH more of an all-or-nothing team than in 2017. They scored less than 3 runs in 55 games--in one third of the schedule, the pitching had to be almost perfect to stay in the game. In fact, they scored 0 or 1 runs 39 times--that's more than they scored 0, 1, or 2 runs in 2016 (36 times). This wasn't just a second half problem either--they scored 0-2 runs in 27 of their first 81 games. They were way too vulnerable to getting completely shut down.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 02:42:42 pm
You note that the Cubs scored less than 3 runs in 55 games last season. Dysfunction, you say.

Do you know how many games the Brewers scored less than 3 runs last season?

49.

At what point between 49 and 55 does a club fall into the pit of dysfunction?

To say that 2019 Cubs are a dysfunctional-looking offense is WAY, WAY over the top. Yes, there needs to be fewer very low scoring games in 2019 but high/low is all around baseball today because of all the hard throwing bullpen guys, constant match-ups pitching changes, and managers getting starters out when the metrics say effectiveness tends to wane—-among other factors.

I’ve been the guy here who long ago argued that hitter strikeouts were not just another benign form of making an out no different than putting the ball in play for an out. Had tons of discussion about that here, arguing for the value of putting the ball in play. And, Cubs now no longer dominating the league in high Ks....but Theo and Maddon always talking about improving the balance between power strokes and situational putting ball in play—-better 2-strike approaches and the like. That would help adding a run or two to the occasionally dismal low-run production.

True for vast majority of clubs—-not just Cubs. Don’t get carried away with the Cubs “dysfunction” stuff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on January 08, 2019, 03:20:11 pm
Quote
Don’t get carried away with the Cubs “dysfunction” stuff.

Too late.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 08, 2019, 03:49:48 pm
If you want to blame anybody for the dysfunction narrative, blame Theo.  He set the tone in his first couple of pressers after the season, presumably before he know where he stood financially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 08, 2019, 04:15:52 pm
My memory is imperfect, but I do not recall Theo ever referring to the team as dysfunctional.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 08, 2019, 04:16:32 pm
He said our offense was.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 04:39:54 pm
Cubs Non-pitchers
2018 Cubs 20.7% K%, 8th best in baseball
2017 Cubs 21.1% K%, 14th best in baseball
2016 Cubs 20% K%, 10th best in baseball

2018 Cubs ISO .159, 20th in baseball,  wRC+ 107 (7th best in baseball)
2017 Cubs ISO  .190, tied for 7th best in baseball, wRC+ 108 (4th best in baseball)
2016 Cubs ISO .181, OBP tied for 5th best in baseball, wRC+ 112 (2nd in baseball)

2018 OBP .344 (1st in baseball)
2017 OBP .348 (1st in baseball)
2016 OBP .352 (1st in baseball)

2018 BB% 9.4% (6th in baseball)
2017 BB% 10.3 (2nd in baseball)
2016 BB% 10.8 (1st in baseball)

The only thing that changed is the Cubs went from an elite slugging team to a crappy slugging team in 2018. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 08, 2019, 04:40:51 pm
...The slugging disappeared in the 2nd half.  That was the Cubs achilles heal. ....

The HR hitting disappeared before the season ever started, though.  They were consistently very low in HR's from beginning to end. 

reb, you were gone during that time, but there were a lot of numbers and stuff put up analyzing the Cubs distribution.  Graphs, tables, discussion.  (The graphical date was not decisive or persuasive to create consensus or change every minds; some saw a general shape with a low frequency of 0-1 and 10+-run games which fit all teams Cubs included; others saw the Cubs profile somewhat flattened, lower in 3-6 run games but higher-than-average in both 0-1-2 and ≥10-run games.) 

As you note, Theo and Maddon both wanted the Cubs to adapt and be better at situational hitting.  That was part of the Chili thing.  In the post-season press conference Theo was really proud of the increase in opposite field contact. 

Theo also emphasized the 1st/2nd-half dichotomy.  There is considerable merit in the narrative where 1st-half is viewed as terrific and predictive, and the 2nd as flukey and non-predictive. 

But I've some hesitations with that:
1.  The HR shortfall was evident all season.
2.  The frequency of 0-1-2-run games was evident first half as well as 2nd.
3.  Situational hitting consistent issue.
4.  First half had Almora leading the league in hitting, and Hayward up near .300.  I'm concerned that isn't representative and predictive; that it might that be flukey and non-sustainable; and that without those guys being bizarrely hot, that the low-HR offense may struggle? 

First half collected runs in bunches, with a 39-run weekend+Tuesday (Colorado) and a 46-run Thursday+weekend (Twins).  Had 14 ≥10-run games, 2nd half had only 3. (The 3rd one being on the memorable last win of the season against St. Louis to clinch a share of first place with Milwaukee!)     

I guess I'm just a little nervous that *IF* we assume the 2nd half was fluke, and the 1st-half normal and predictable for future, that we're expecting too much?  Maybe the composite isn't that misrepresentative?  (5th OPS, 6th in slugging, 11th HR, 2-runs ahead of 6th in runs. [The 10-run win versus Cardinals moved us past both the Braves and Cardinals to move up from 6th to 4th in runs.])
Title: Re: Cubs in '1
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 04:41:55 pm
If you want to blame anybody for the dysfunction narrative, blame Theo.  He set the tone in his first couple of pressers after the season, presumably before he know where he stood financially.

If that’s the case, then some folks misunderstood what Theo was saying about the club going forward.

If Theo thought 2019 offense looked dysfunctional going forward, he would have broke it up. He hasn’t done that, obviously. Complaints now are that he is maintaining status quo.

What Theo said at outset of off-season was that, after the Break, Cubs hit too many grounders and not enough liners, homers, and walks. Said that kind of production from this group was unacceptable.

Nobody is going to argue with that.

Now, the argument being made is that Cubs offense—going into 2019–is a unit that is intrinsically, structurally flawed and dysfunctional.

Theo never said or implied that.

As noted, if he thought that, he would not be doing what he’s doing. Clearly, he thinks the lineup is structurally sound—-but just has to play better and can do that with the players who are here.

Of course, Harper would be an offensive upgrade for every single team in baseball. Cubs too. Get in line.

Like some others, I would have liked to see a really good leadoff guy brought in. But, Theo said early in off-season that doing that was not a high priority. So, not seeing any evidence there, as to leadoff, that Theo thought 2019 unit looked dysfunctional—-or encouraged anybody to think that.

It would be madness to break up or discount a unit loaded with guys in prime age, as are Cubs 2019 lineup. This being Baseball, nobody can know the outcomes but let’s not exaggerate the woes.

Would love to get Harper but let’s get real as to what’s here now even without him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 08, 2019, 04:56:58 pm
Or he thinks it, and can’t change anything because he doesn’t have the money. That’s what his dramatic change in public posturing would suggest.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 08, 2019, 05:04:45 pm
There was no bigger message to take away than “the Cubs are going to make significant changes to the offense” at the end of the end-of-season press conference.

Theo may not have specifically used the word “dysfunctional,” but he did say “broken.” Google “dysfunctional synonym” and the second suggestion is broken.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 05:17:39 pm
Or he thinks it, and can’t change anything because he doesn’t have the money. That’s what his dramatic change in public posturing would suggest.

Think that if Theo wanted to make substantial change for the offense, he would not have made a $20 comittment to Hamels. Even with the Smyly salary deletion, exercising that option was telling about what Theo thought about the 2019 offense capability as is.

Result of that is that hardly anybody talks about or worries much about the rotation.

Let’s also keep in mind that off-season not over by a longshot. I’m a little surprised that Happ is still here since he ought to have considerable trade value and maybe ill-suited to be a primary CFer. Maybe something happens there, I don’t know.

Theo still will be doing stuff with bullpen. Won’t be the guys we wanted at the outset, but with relievers often the guys you wanted don’t turn out so hot. Be careful what you wish for.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 05:33:36 pm
There was no bigger message to take away than “the Cubs are going to make significant changes to the offense” at the end of the end-of-season press conference.

Theo may not have specifically used the word “dysfunctional,” but he did say “broken.” Google “dysfunctional synonym” and the second suggestion is broken.

What I recall is that Theo said “significant change” AFTER 2019 if the core guys don’t produce in 2019—-not about significant change in personnel this offseason.

Theo talked about the Existing Group doing better for 2019.

The key part of that presser in my estimation:

It has to be more about production than talent going forward,” Epstein admitted. “And beyond that, it’s also trying to understand why we’re not where we should be with some individual players.

“It’s our job not just to assemble a talented group, but to unearth that talent and have it manifest on the field. Are we doing everything we can in creating the right situation to get the most out of these guys?”

These Guys. He really likes this group and wants to figure out how to make them better. If you expected wholesale changes this offseason, maybe you misinterpreted his remarks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 08, 2019, 05:38:15 pm
...If Theo thought 2019 offense looked dysfunctional going forward, he would have broke it up. He hasn’t done that, obviously. Complaints now are that he is maintaining status quo.....

Yeah, he doesn't think it was too dysfunctional to try again with the same guys.  We got two extra post-season games last season and 95 wins with the existing personnel, despite some significant injuries.  Would be kind of ridiculous to give up on that group. 

But I also think it's evident that Theo had no resources for improving it personnel-wise, beyond Descalzo-level.  Theo spent his money on FA past; he spent his farm on Chapman and Quintana.  He has no resources left to add talent, so we'll go with the guys we've got. 

The option to trying again with what he's got, was to either make trades that will make things worse; or to break it up and rebuild. 

No brainer.  Try it again: hope health is better; hope some sub-30-age guys figure some things out and play better; hope some new coaches help; and hope being more motivated and determined helps. 

Not adding much doesn't prove he has no concerns.  But if you have a concern that you can't do anything about anyway, why worry about what you can't change? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 08, 2019, 05:45:40 pm
As regards Happ, if he's got an inkling he's going anywhere he's a better actor than Theo - he just teased some kind of "big news" at the Cubs convention a couple days ago.

That gathering is going to be very interesting.  Won't be the lovefest it's been the past few years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 05:56:19 pm
Even with a lot more money to work with, there is no reason for Theo to want to disrupt the position player lineup as “dysfunctional.”

Even if you had the top offense in MLB, you’d be interested in Harper. Who wouldn’t want him?

Where else?

Russell is not really a baseball issue. It’s something else. Absent that problem, would there be any urgency to change anything up with the infield?

Ditto Contreras at catcher. Just hit better. Get a backup—-perhaps will still do that.

Schwarber in LF they still seem to like a lot for 2019. Never any desire to upgrade. Heyward in RF is not a salary any club can just dump. Sure, if you sign Harper, move Heyward to CF but.....

CF is really only position I see that, on the merits, you would want to make a big move. Maybe a leadoff guy like Fowler-in-2016. As noted, Heyward there if had money for Harper in RF.

It’s a one-position upgrade, plus the non-baseball issue with Russell. And, not really a lock Harper signs here even if Cubs could afford him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 05:58:26 pm
Rizzo Hirt his back at the start of the year and was horrible. Bryant was hurt shortly after Rizzo got healthy. Despite that in the first half the Cubs were still elite on offense. Then in the second half the offense broke and Theo’s quote was ALWAYS about the second half offense.


Cubs 1st Half
.276/.357/.444 ISO .161 (11th), wRC+ 116 (1st)

Cubs 2nd Half
.256/.324/.402 ISO .146 (27th), wRC+ 95 (23rd)

The Cubs OBP was still 14th in the second half and the walks dropped some. Things where fine in July, turned bad in August and went to crap in Sept/Oct.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 08, 2019, 07:54:31 pm
Even with a lot more money to work with, there is no reason for Theo to want to disrupt the position player lineup ...

Russell is not really a baseball issue. It’s something else. Absent that problem, would there be any urgency to change anything up with the infield?...

Russell's .340 slugging, with only a .317 OBP, and a 74 OPS+, was a baseball problem.  He was a huge liability offensively.   

As a former top prospect, there's lots of ways to be optimistic. 
1.  It was an anti-career year.  He should naturally return nearer to his median (87 OPS+)
2.  He's young, and young guys normally improve.
3.  He was playing hurt, so he should naturally improve.
4.  He was Chili'd, and it seemed counterproductive in his case.  With a new coach, he might naturally improve.
5.  He was distracted by his abuse.  Now that he's getting help, he should naturally be better able to focus on baseball and naturally improve. 

So, lots of scenarios in which he is less of a liability on offense, and perhaps might blossom into an average hitter, perhaps even someday into a somewhat good one!   

There's a chance it won't get better, or not much.
1.  The abuse stuff may remain a distraction. 
2.  If a guy can't figure things out in four years, maybe he's not going to?
3.  After years of failure, confidence can deteriorate?
4.  With the Cubs constantly changing coaching input, might his head get too confused with different ideas to ever get simple and instinctive again? 
5.   Pitchers have a common knowledge on how to beat him now.  He hasn't found a workaround; maybe he never will? 
6.  Sometimes adjustments attempted to provide a workaround for one problem (unsuccessfully thus far) will introduce new vulnerabilities, and just make things worse? 

If you put his off-field issues aside, I think there's a really interesting and unpredictable baseball question, where he's going to go as a hitter!  I have no idea how that's going to go.       
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 08, 2019, 08:06:59 pm
7.) Shoulder and Hand injuries have tanked his offensive value two years in a row.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 08, 2019, 08:14:26 pm
Who knows how Russell will hit in 2019 and thereafter?   He's a major wild card, if for no reason other than whether or not he can overcome the sad personal issues he brought upon himself and his family. 

Those are MAJOR issues that he will have to deal with EVERY day, including in front of thousands of people at each away game (and maybe home games) who will vocally wish him nothing but the worst!

Russell proved he CAN hit with power (20+ HR, 90+ RBI) at an age (22) suggesting there's quite possibly more!

Of course, that was before his personal problems (and, maybe, the league) caught up with him!  He may continue his downward spiral OR start digging himself out and up. 

Who knows what will happen with him?  MLB and human behavior are both extremely hard to predict!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 08, 2019, 08:17:03 pm
Russell should have to deal with those issues.  He brought them on himself with his despicable behavior.


Setting aside the larger question of whether the Cubs should have released him under the circumstances, if indeed the financial constraints are as draconian as is now almost universally being reported guaranteeing Russell's contract makes even less sense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 08, 2019, 08:22:32 pm
Lol

After all these years I never knew we had a predominantly female group here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 08, 2019, 09:48:43 pm
I’m talking baseball here for the moment, not Russell’s personal problems.

Russell has 12 career bWAR in four seasons, three of which were shortened because of injuries and a late call-up.

He’s still 24 for a couple more weeks.

Absent the personal issues, don’t think much chance Cubs would be contemplating replacing him for baseball reasons.

Russell might still hit, as we’ve seen him hit at times. At 24, as a baseball matter and aside from his personal issues, think would be exciting to see what he can do for Cubs in 2019.

Baseball is not just baseball for his kind of personal issues. Get that. But, my point in earlier post is that not much to break apart in this group of position players for 2019. Not a matter of disfunction but rather players who are capable of being a lot better than post-Break 2018 performance.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 10, 2019, 12:28:06 pm
In December it was announced that SafeCo Park in Seattle will now be known as T-Mobile Park.

Now we learn that AT&T Park in San Francisco is becoming Oracle Park.

How huge a fee could the Cubs get by selling the naming rights to Wrigley Field?  I want to say they'll never even consider it but I can't.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on January 10, 2019, 02:17:57 pm
Change it from Wrigley?  Would that be one of the original corporate names attached to a park/field?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 10, 2019, 02:43:20 pm
They got >$7.5 million to put Toyota on the bottom of the marquee.

A local hospital is paying $1 million a year to name the arena in Omaha.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 10, 2019, 04:01:21 pm
The Cubs would love a shot at Harper, though ownership approval continues to appear unlikely, sources say. --Rosenthal
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 10, 2019, 04:47:40 pm
As regards Happ, if he's got an inkling he's going anywhere he's a better actor than Theo - he just teased some kind of "big news" at the Cubs convention a couple days ago.

That gathering is going to be very interesting.  Won't be the lovefest it's been the past few years.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1083476160145690629
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 10, 2019, 05:29:33 pm
Have the Cubs signed Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 10, 2019, 06:18:00 pm
https://twitter.com/i/status/1083476160145690629

That's actually pretty cool.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 10, 2019, 09:42:26 pm
In December it was announced that SafeCo Park in Seattle will now be known as T-Mobile Park.

Now we learn that AT&T Park in San Francisco is becoming Oracle Park.

How huge a fee could the Cubs get by selling the naming rights to Wrigley Field?  I want to say they'll never even consider it but I can't.

A few years ago there was a discussion on this board about whether or not they should sell the naming right to Wrigley Field.  The general discussion was that they could get about 10 to 15 million per year.  I have no idea, and probably no one in the discussion had any real idea what it could bring.  But my personal opinion was and is that if they can get anywhere NEAR that amount, they would be crazy not to do it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 10, 2019, 10:17:04 pm
Sign Harper for 30, have him give back 15 for it to be called Harper Field!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 10, 2019, 11:48:18 pm
Quote from: Bruce Miles

Fans of the Chicago Cubs heard the words all baseball fans yearn to hear this time of year: Pitchers and catchers report.

There is also some serious business in the immediate future, too.

Cubs pitches and catchers will report to the Sloan Park complex in Mesa, Arizona, on Feb. 12 with their first formal workout the next day. Position players will hold their first formal workout Feb. 18. Cactus League play opens for the Cubs Feb. 23 when they host the Milwaukee Brewers.

Now for the serious business.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, citing "sources," reported Thursday that "the Cubs would love a shot" at free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper but that "ownership approval continues to appear unlikely."

On Friday, the Cubs will exchange salary figures with seven of their players who are eligible for salary arbitration: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Carl Edwards Jr., Kyle Hendricks, Mike Montgomery, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber.

If the two sides cannot agree on a deal and a player's case goes to arbitration, the arbitrator must decide on either the club's offer or the player's offer, with no in-between.

The one to watch will be Baez, runner-up to Milwaukee's Christian Yelich for the National League Most Valuable Player award last year. Baez made $657,000 last season, and MLB Trade Rumors (mlbtradrumors.com) estimates he could get $7.1 million this year.

Bryant received $10.85 million last year, a record for a first-year arbitration-eligible player. The MLB Trade Rumors estimate for this year is $12.4 million.

The other estimates are $7.6 million for Hendricks, $3 million for Montgomery, $4.3 million for Russell, $1.4 million for Edwards and $3.1 million for Schwarber.

The official run-up to spring training begins next Friday, Jan. 18, for the Cubs, who host their annual fan convention at the downtown Sheraton Grand through Sunday, Jan. 20.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 11, 2019, 06:37:11 am
Hendricks settles at $7.405.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 11, 2019, 07:36:28 am
They got >$7.5 million to put Toyota on the bottom of the marquee.

A local hospital is paying $1 million a year to name the arena in Omaha.

Quote
AT&T Park will be renamed Oracle Park, the San Francisco Chronicle first reported Wednesday night. The team formally announced a 20-year naming-rights deal with the software company Thursday.

Contract terms were not disclosed, but the Chronicle estimated the deal to be worth between $300 million and $350 million, a huge leap from the $100 million naming-rights deal that was in place. Bloomberg News reported the deal to be worth “more than $200 million.”

Quote from: Illinois senator Everett Dirksen often misquoted as saying
"A million here, a million there, pretty soon, you're talking real money." 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 11, 2019, 11:12:53 am
Michael Ernst of Cubs Den on Justin Grimm losing his arbitration case in 2018

Quote
This was a rare instance, but it is actually one that is likely to apply once again this season, but for different reasons. I refer, of course, to Addison Russell. I find it highly unlikely the Cubs will agree to any terms with Russell prior to a hearing because they will want the flexibility to release Russell during Spring Training without his full salary guaranteed for the 2019 season. If they end up keeping him (please, no), Russell's salary will not be paid while he finishing serving his domestic violence suspension throughout April.


http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2019/01/update-on-salary-arbitration-process/ (http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2019/01/update-on-salary-arbitration-process/)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 11:33:47 am
Schwarber gets $3.39 million.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 11:56:01 am
Montgomery gets $2.44 million.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 11, 2019, 12:08:41 pm
If there is no change from 2018, the deadline is 1:00 P.M. Eastern time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 11, 2019, 12:43:17 pm
On Friday, the Cubs will exchange salary figures with seven of their players who are eligible for salary arbitration: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Carl Edwards Jr., Kyle Hendricks, Mike Montgomery, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 12:55:01 pm
Edwards gets $1.5 million according to Mooney.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 01:05:50 pm
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Addison Russell signs for $3.4 million with #Cubs and $600k with of bonuses if he’s on roster 150 days
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 11, 2019, 01:25:59 pm
With the suspension he will make $3.4 million max.  I believe this guarantees his contract as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 11, 2019, 01:31:57 pm
I think all of the signings seem to be reasonable for both sides.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 01:34:41 pm
The breakdown of the bonus is $100K at 30, 60, 90, and 120 days and $200K if he's on the roster for 150 days.

Assuming the information I just Googled is right, Russell will be eligible to play on May 3, which is the 37th day of the season once you factor in off days. After adding four more off days last year, there are 187 days in a baseball season. So if my math is right, he has to be on the roster for the entire season he is eligible to play to get that last $200K.

If there is one rainout in March/April that is rescheduled for after May 3, that will push his return back another day and he won't be able to get the last $200K.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 11, 2019, 03:17:02 pm
With the suspension he will make $3.4 million max.  I believe this guarantees his contract as well.

Arb contracts are not guaranteed. Doesn’t matter if settled before a hearing or set by arb panel after a hearing. Same thing—-they are still arbitration contracts. Implication to the contrary in that Cubs Den piece is incorrect.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 11, 2019, 03:18:55 pm
...Assuming the information I just Googled is right, ..... if my math is right, he has to be on the roster for the entire season he is eligible to play to get that last $200K.   If there is one rainout in March/April that is rescheduled for after May 3, that will push his return back another day and he won't be able to get the last $200K.

That seems like an odd structure, to have $200K depend on an April rainout.  Why do that? 

Q:  I assume post-season roster days don't count?  Like, maybe 80% expectation for an April rainout?  Maybe basically it's not intended to pay the extra $200K unless they both reach the playoffs and he's included on the playoff roster? 

Does days on roster preclude days on disabled list?  Or do 10 days on the DL still qualify as roster days for salary purpose? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 11, 2019, 03:25:36 pm
Baez settles at $5.2, Bryant $12.9.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 11, 2019, 03:25:37 pm
Arb contracts are not guaranteed. Doesn’t matter if settled before a hearing or set by arb panel after a hearing. Same thing—-they are still arbitration contracts. Implication to the contrary in that Cubs Den piece is incorrect.

Thanks, reb.  That's a significant clarification, I'd wondered about that.  The different between Russell being guaranteed or not is kinda significant.  Perhaps as pertains to potential FA activity, too.  *IF* they want to add somebody but are money-tight, releasing $3.4-4 might make it a little easier.  Not at all thinking it's likely, think Theo is pretty much set on his 2015 talent core.  But in the remote scenario that they did decide to boost the lineup by signing Machado, the need for Russell in middle infield would decrease, and cutting $3.4 would make the added cost a little bit less exaggerated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 03:26:46 pm
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Javier Baez settles at 5.2M #cubs


That's almost $2 million lower than MLBTradeRumors' estimate. Montgomery was also about a half million low, while everyone else was within about $200K (with Bryant still pending).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 11, 2019, 03:36:47 pm
Bryant was $12.9.

After more reading on the MLB website it could be either on Russell’s contract. The team/player can remove the no guarantee language in the contract. I wonder if that typically happens as a way to get guys to make a deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 11, 2019, 03:39:36 pm
I would assume that there was no way the Cubs were going to guarantee Russell's contract, though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 11, 2019, 03:46:35 pm
SignBryceHarperCountTommy

 
In case you were wondering, the Cubs are now looking at roughly $204.5 million in payroll and $222.5 million in luxury tax payroll for 2019

Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Looking at MLBTR's arb projections, the Cubs came $2.665M under with a total of $36.235M base for their 7 players (though it's about $570,000 or so under that due to Russell not receiving pay for first month).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 11, 2019, 05:28:43 pm
Have the Cubs signed Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 11, 2019, 06:51:15 pm
Bryant was $12.9.

After more reading on the MLB website it could be either on Russell’s contract. The team/player can remove the no guarantee language in the contract. I wonder if that typically happens as a way to get guys to make a deal.

Yes, the general rule is arb contract is not guaranteed, but if all parties (including MLB approval) agree to make the contract guaranteed, they can mutually agree to do that. Happens occasionally, but not often. When it does, usually a fringy, bench guy making not a whole lot more than the minimum.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 11, 2019, 07:12:23 pm
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Addison Russell signs for $3.4 million with #Cubs and $600k with of bonuses if he’s on roster 150 days


Are the $600K in bonuses payable in quarters?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 12, 2019, 11:33:01 am
Forbes on the Cubs and spending:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryandavis/2019/01/11/cubs-ownership-needs-to-answer-for-sudden-financial-restrictions/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 12, 2019, 11:46:34 am
Forbes on the Cubs and spending:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryandavis/2019/01/11/cubs-ownership-needs-to-answer-for-sudden-financial-restrictions/

The article is a tad simplistic, seems to me, in that it somehow manages to omit the millions upon millions of dollars the Ricketts/Cubs have spent on fundamentally rehabbing and making other improvements to Wrigley Field (and to a lesser extent the money spent on building up the front office, scouting, minor league etc personnel and data systems).  Don't get me wrong, I wish the Cubs would commit the money necessary to get Harper, but I also figure that I know a lot less about the factors playing into this situation than those making the decisions.  I'd be more concerned if I had any inkling that Theo is unhappy with the financial support he's receiving, but I see no indication of that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 12, 2019, 12:13:25 pm
According to Sharma/Mooney/Rogers, Addison Russell’s contract is the typical non-guaranteed arbitration contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 12, 2019, 12:21:13 pm
It also is termed "below market value" which makes it very trade attractive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 12, 2019, 01:34:13 pm
That article didn't seem to provide any real Forbes-esque financial detail.  I have no idea how much the Cubs have spent on renovating Wrigley Field and the neighborhood.  Those numbers are too big for my mental conception, I assume.  But I assume must be in the hundreds of millions plural, no? 

The argument about how many salaries will come off the books and how small the guaranteed-salaries commitment is beyond the year seems non-helpful and too overly simplistic to be persuasive.  Yes, certainly Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, and Hendricks are non-guaranteed for 2020 and could be taken off the books next winter; but how is presenting roster commitments without those guys helpful in understanding actual budget planning?  Presenting such a simplistic, un-nuanced, perhaps intentionally misleading argument doesn't give me confidence that the rest of the analysis is nuanced; or is actually trying to understand the Cubs finances as opposed to confirm a point of view. 

Kind of frustrating, I saw "Forbes" in the link and assumed this was going to be a little more informative and helpful! 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 12, 2019, 01:39:25 pm
It also is termed "below market value" which makes it very trade attractive.

The future "market value" will depend a lot on what happens with his bat.  If he was a 100+ OPS+ hitter, his "market value" would be significantly higher, baseball level, compared to the 74 and 84 he's been the last couple of years.  Who knows?  I think the actual "market value" has to consider his off-field issues; the real market would. 

As a fan, I'm certainly hoping that he hits well enough to make that contract a baseball-level bargain.  And likewise I hope that his off-field behavior and persona improve dramatically, as a result of sincere and lasting improvements. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 12, 2019, 01:52:51 pm
The Cubs are paying Russell for 0.425 WAR, even with horrific offense and time missed he’s been worth 1.5, 1.4 WAR the last 2 years.

The amount of money the Ricketts have spent around Wrigley is tough to calculate. If you include the Rooftops, new hotel and Wrigley improvements it is over $500 million. The Cubs balance sheet only includes the Wrigley renovations and I believe that was covered with the sponsorships, signage and minority stake sale.

The Cubs also get $50 million for the sale of MLBAM to Disney for a few years. I don’t know how that is accounted for.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 12, 2019, 02:01:42 pm
The Cubs are paying Russell for 0.425 WAR, even with horrific offense and time missed he’s been worth 1.5, 1.4 WAR the last 2 years.


That’s fWAR.

bWAR has him at 2.0, 2.4—giving him more defensive value credit, which in his case I think probably is more accurate of his overall value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 12, 2019, 03:29:51 pm
Have the Cubs signed Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 12, 2019, 04:23:27 pm
Russell may be a 2WAR guy even if he hits like Frank Castillo, I get that.  I'm just saying that if he could hit a little bit, or even get up to or close to or even a shade above average, he'd have a LOT more market value than as a strictly defense-only guy.  You can calculate value based on present market-value and past-performance.  But his future performance, who can guess?  Maybe he'll be in the 74-84 range again of last two years; maybe he'll rebound and get back into the 91-94 range of his first two years; maybe with some age and maturity and good health and good coaching he'll show the age-based improvement that many people anticipate back when he was 21 and he'll blossom into a 100-105 guys. 

The defense is pretty predictable; it's going to be elite.  >90th percentile in the whole game in terms of defensive value. 

But the offense is very unpredictable.  Might be <10th percentile; might improve into the 20th-40th percentile which would be a huge step up for any offense playing him every day; or might improve up into the 40th-70th percentile and be no liability whatsoever in the lineup.  If you didn't have to sacrifice scoring to play him, his value will go way up, whichever WAR calculation you use. 

I think there's something of a composite team factor for offense.  Red Sox catchers as a group were even worse offensively than Russell last year, and their offense rocked nonetheless.  So as Blue has often noted, *IF* the other guys rock, Russell can be an auto-out and we can still have an elite offense.  But Red Sox had two >1K guys, and of course no pitcher batting.  So an opposing pitcher still had to respect 8 guys, and it was only 1/9th of lineup that was an auto-out rally-killer. 

I think it's harder to sustain a non-HR-based scoring inning when the number of auto-outs increases.  Sure, if Schwarber and Bryant are posting 1.030 OPS seasons, everything's going to be fine, whether Russell is a 5th-percentile or 45th-percentile hitter.  HR's are huge, of course; if the Cubs could be one of the stronger HR-hitting teams, you can score anytime.  But if you're trying to score by bunching ≥2 hits in a given inning, that's hard enough when you've got three outs; it gets harder when you're giving away auto-outs.  Hopefully Russell will be considerably upfield on the anti-awful spectrum when he's in the lineup this year. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 12, 2019, 05:11:41 pm
Im still not convinced we dont sign Harper but if we dont want to go there I wonder if Theo's just playing the market and may be active late looking for unexpected deals.

I mean we do still believe that he does have a plan right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 12, 2019, 06:05:51 pm
Maybe his plan is to resign in June and take a job with Detroit!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 12, 2019, 07:18:47 pm
Craig, there's also the possibility that Russell (who remains VERY young) gets his life together and figures things out at the plate in his mid (or late) 20s...and fulfills the promise MOST experts had for him a couple years ago - a guy who puts up well over 800 OPS, hits about 25 bombs and is also an offensive force at SS.

Perhaps it's unlikely that will ever happen given what we've seen from Russell the past couple of years; however, it's always important to remember that LOTS, if not most, MLB hitters don't hit their stride until their late 20s.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 12, 2019, 07:48:01 pm
One of the Padres writers stated the Cubs and Padres have talked about Bote in a trade and that the Padres are looking to dump Wil Myers who is owed $74 million through 2022 if his option isn’t picked up. Heyward is owed $32 million more through 2023, so I can’t imagine that the Padres would take him back.

The interesting part about Myers contract is he is owed $5.5 million this year and has an AAV $13.833. Maybe the Cubs could dump Chatwood, Kintzler and Duensing lowering their money this year and either take pitching prospects back or get some cash back to lower the salary and still get something less interesting back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on January 13, 2019, 08:38:44 am
The Cubs are paying Russell for 0.425 WAR, even with horrific offense and time missed he’s been worth 1.5, 1.4 WAR the last 2 years.

The amount of money the Ricketts have spent around Wrigley is tough to calculate. If you include the Rooftops, new hotel and Wrigley improvements it is over $500 million. The Cubs balance sheet only includes the Wrigley renovations and I believe that was covered with the sponsorships, signage and minority stake sale.

The Cubs also get $50 million for the sale of MLBAM to Disney for a few years. I don’t know how that is accounted for.

The creation of Hickory Street Capital covered a lot of the expenses for the items you have listed. Basically there are more people, than simply the Ricketts family, covering expenses.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 13, 2019, 04:11:24 pm
One of the Padres writers stated the Cubs and Padres have talked about Bote in a trade and that the Padres are looking to dump Wil Myers who is owed $74 million through 2022 if his option isn’t picked up. Heyward is owed $32 million more through 2023, so I can’t imagine that the Padres would take him back.

The interesting part about Myers contract is he is owed $5.5 million this year and has an AAV $13.833. Maybe the Cubs could dump Chatwood, Kintzler and Duensing lowering their money this year and either take pitching prospects back or get some cash back to lower the salary and still get something less interesting back.

I don't really think Myers frees up enough money to do anything else if it's Chatwood going the other way, especially after 2019. If they've soured on Myers enough to trade him for Heyward straight up, then maybe there's something there...but that really just frees up luxury tax money rather than real money past 2019.

How much would the Cubs have to add to Bote to get Kirby Yates? He only has one elite year and is only two years from free agency, so would a similar package to what they gave up for Wilson and Avila (Bote plus a decent prospect with some upsidein the low minors) do the trick? Maybe add a little better second prospect and send Duensing (or Kintzler and half his salary) to even out the money?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 13, 2019, 04:50:07 pm
If you are going for relievers I’d rather go after one of their lefties out of pen.

2019 the Cubs have $60 million coming off the payroll and after 2020 another huge chunk.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 13, 2019, 07:18:27 pm
2019 the Cubs have $60 million coming off the payroll and after 2020 another huge chunk.

Yeah, but you don't want to be spending $22.5 million/year of those savings on Wil Myers in 2021-22 when you could just be done with Chatwood.

I keep reading that all these savings are going to free up future payroll and the Cubs will be able to spend in free agency again...which is true to an extent. But a lot of that will be going to raises for Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Hendricks (for 2020 at least), and others.

Another big chunk will go to rebuilding the pitching staff--Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Hamels, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow are all free agents in the next two years. Given the Cubs' recent history of developing pitchers, you're being overly optimistic if you think the Cubs will be able to fill more than 2-3 of those positions internally.

Another big chunk ks going back in the pockets of Ricketts family members. If they're not putting the cash in now when they're in the middle of a championship window, then they're almost certainly going to cut back to get under the luxury tax again once the Cubs go into a retooling phase in a couple of years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 13, 2019, 07:20:01 pm
The creation of Hickory Street Capital covered a lot of the expenses for the items you have listed. Basically there are more people, than simply the Ricketts family, covering expenses.

I'm not familiar with Hickory Street Capital.  The only information I can get on the web indicates that it is owned by the Ricketts family.  Is it actually publicly traded?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 13, 2019, 07:24:04 pm

Another big chunk ks going back in the pockets of Ricketts family members. If they're not putting the cash in now when they're in the middle of a championship window, then they're almost certainly going to cut back to get under the luxury tax again once the Cubs go into a retooling phase in a couple of years.

This is the reality of "savings for future salary expenditures" in sports.  They're like corporate tax welfare, which is always promised will trickle down to the employees but somehow almost never does.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 13, 2019, 07:24:26 pm
If you are going for relievers I’d rather go after one of their lefties out of pen.

2019 the Cubs have $60 million coming off the payroll and after 2020 another huge chunk.

Who is coming off the payroll on those two years?  Are they players who do not have to be replaced at an equal or higher cost?


I posted this before I read brjones last post.  Players like Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Hamels, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow are going to have to be replaced with players of equal value in order to just stay even.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 13, 2019, 07:34:04 pm
Yeah, but you don't want to be spending $22.5 million/year of those savings on Wil Myers in 2021-22 when you could just be done with Chatwood.

I keep reading that all these savings are going to free up future payroll and the Cubs will be able to spend in free agency again...which is true to an extent. But a lot of that will be going to raises for Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Hendricks (for 2020 at least), and others.

Another big chunk will go to rebuilding the pitching staff--Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Hamels, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow are all free agents in the next two years. Given the Cubs' recent history of developing pitchers, you're being overly optimistic if you think the Cubs will be able to fill more than 2-3 of those positions internally.

Another big chunk ks going back in the pockets of Ricketts family members. If they're not putting the cash in now when they're in the middle of a championship window, then they're almost certainly going to cut back to get under the luxury tax again once the Cubs go into a retooling phase in a couple of years.

The Padres would have to pay those years down for it to make sense for the Cubs which would decrease the AAV for the Cubs. 

The Cubs found a replacement for Hamels that will cost $3 million in 2020, with additional control. They done pretty week at finding pitchers on the cheap so I think they can replace the rotation for a much cheaper price.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 13, 2019, 07:47:07 pm
The Cubs pitching staff in 2021 is currently projected to be 35 year old Darvish, swing man Montgomery, reliever Edwards, and 10 question marks. They're not filling all of those spots cheaply. There will be at least 1-2 significant investments at the top of the rotation, and at least two Cishek-level (or better) signings in the pen.

Even if the other 6 slots are filled either internally or with bargain guys on the market, those expenditures combined with the raises Bryant, etc. are going to get uses up most of the payroll saved. Unless the Padres want to pay a large majority of Myers' post-2020 contract, I just think he exacerbates the payroll problem.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 13, 2019, 08:08:47 pm
...The Cubs found a replacement for Hamels that will cost $3 million in 2020, with additional control. They done pretty week at finding pitchers on the cheap so I think they can replace the rotation for a much cheaper price.

Are you talking about Graveman?  One of the challenges with rehab guys, I think, is uncertainty in planning.  Smyly might hypothetically be as good or better than Hamels this year, who knows?  But during the winter they felt their was too much uncertainty about whether they could count on him, so, they opted to pay the extra $14 or whatever for a somewhat safer Hamels bet. 

Likewise, I think it may be that 2020 Graveman, who has a 4.58-FIP during his pre-surgery years, will be a respectable mid-4's rotation-filler post-surgery, perhaps no worse than Lackey was on 2017.  But I could imagine it might be somewhat hard for Hoyer to count on him being anti-awful; so they may be pretty motivated to buy a somewhat safer, or perhaps higher-upside, alternative next winter? 

I'm not suggesting he won't be a good solution, or the kind of gamble that teams whose seasons end up great have turn out great.  I just feel like it's a little harder to commit starting spots to guys like that when you want to be a contender, than when you're rebuilding and looking to have a guy turn up favorably so you can trade him in July.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 13, 2019, 08:31:09 pm
What salary comes off the books:
Hamels (20), Zobrist (12.5), Duensing (3.5), Kintzler (5K)
Cishek (6.5), Strop (6.25)
Morrow (option, pay $3 buyout, to save 6.0; or pay $12 to keep him, $3 raise.)
Lester (7.5 salary reduction) (A bunch of other guys have programmed raises, Hayward, Darvish, Rizzo, etc.) 

Not sure how many of those relievers you may want to resign, or replace with comparable or larger salaries?

I kind of see Hamels and Zobrist as the two significant tickets who will come off, where you might save money to reallocate.  But kinda thinking that you can change some of the relief names, but you probably won't free up a whole lot of cash from the bullpen to use on non-bullpen targets? 




Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 13, 2019, 08:54:04 pm
Not sure how many of those relievers you may want to resign, or replace with comparable or larger salaries?

Given how they've talked about him in the last year or so, I think Strop is extended and remains at about that $6.25 million/year rate as long as he's effective.

If he comes to Spring Training strong and looks like he's fully recovered from his Maddon-induced injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets something like a 2 year/$12 million extension before the season starts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 13, 2019, 09:03:58 pm
Graveman can at least be a competent back of the rotation starter and with changes to his pitch mix maybe something more and he’ll save you $17 million vs Hamels.

When Lester, Hendricks, Quintana and Chatwood become FA that will be $61 million (assuming $12 million for Hendricks?) coming off the books in AAV for 3 rotation spots. I think the Cubs can come in well under that number even if they replace all 3 with FA. If just one of Alzolay, Steele, Lange, Marquez, De La Cruz or the soft tossing draft picks can become a 4 or 5th starter then the savings will be huge.

Bullpen arms can be replaced without spending a lot of money. The Cubs have some really interesting options in the minors and pieced together a pretty decent pen in 2015 out of a rule 5 guy, failed starters, failed pitching prospects. Building a good pen doesn’t need to cost a ton.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 10:53:29 am
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian   50m50 minutes ago

Cubs have hired former MLB pitcher Craig Breslow as the team's director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 10:54:13 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  48m48 minutes ago

Breslow holds a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry. New duties involve helping evaluate and implement data-based processes throughout all facets of the baseball operations department
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 14, 2019, 11:03:25 am
Better baseball through chemistry.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 14, 2019, 03:27:21 pm
Rumor is the holdup on Breslow was needing to move some salary from the home office staff before signing him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 03:39:45 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  25m25 minutes ago

Cubs just released list of scheduled attendees at this weekend's convention. Those expected to attend are Hall of Famers Dawson, Jenkins, Sandberg, Lee Smith & Williams. Not listed among the 31 active players scheduled to attend are Russell, Rizzo, Lester and Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 03:41:45 pm
Bruce Miles  @BruceMiles2112  24m24 minutes ago

Among #Cubs alumni at weekend convention: Larry Biittner, Bill Buckner, Kyle Farnsworth, Koyie Hill, Rich Nye, Paul Popovich, Randy Wells
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 14, 2019, 03:56:11 pm
Several reports say Rizzo, Lester, Chatwood, and Russell won't be at the convention.

When the Cubs traded Valbuena for Fowler, it was just after the convention. Valbuena mysteriously wasn't there. So that must mean a Chatwood trade is coming.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 14, 2019, 04:09:42 pm
Maybe Chatwood and Russell couldn't get enough insurance.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 14, 2019, 04:11:52 pm
Koyie Hill huh? That'll get the attendees in a frenzy....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 04:50:53 pm
Several reports say Rizzo, Lester, Chatwood, and Russell won't be at the convention.

When the Cubs traded Valbuena for Fowler, it was just after the convention. Valbuena mysteriously wasn't there. So that must mean a Chatwood trade is coming.
Anthony Rizzo is almost certainly still on his honeymoon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 14, 2019, 04:56:07 pm
Several reports say Rizzo, Lester, Chatwood, and Russell won't be at the convention.

When the Cubs traded Valbuena for Fowler, it was just after the convention. Valbuena mysteriously wasn't there. So that must mean a Chatwood trade is coming.

Yeah. Also Rizzo and Lester.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 14, 2019, 05:05:51 pm
Cubs sign Harper yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 14, 2019, 05:11:18 pm
Bullpen arms can be replaced without spending a lot of money.

Not both reliably and well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 14, 2019, 05:16:55 pm
Several reports say Rizzo, Lester, Chatwood, and Russell won't be at the convention.

When the Cubs traded Valbuena for Fowler, it was just after the convention. Valbuena mysteriously wasn't there. So that must mean a Chatwood trade is coming.
I hope Chatwood isn't playing winter ball in Venezuela.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 15, 2019, 07:37:15 am
(https://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/conlist.png)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 15, 2019, 08:47:48 pm
Fan question to Joe: “What are the chances of Bryce Harper?” Maddon, no pause: “Not going to happen.” Jim Deshaies: “Lets move on”--Jesse Rogers
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 16, 2019, 07:57:11 am
Jessie selectively quoting.

JD: Alex would like to know (snort) what are the chances of the Cubs getting, do you know the rest of the question?
Madden: impossible
JD: Bryce Harper?
Madden: yeah it’s not gonna happen
JD: alright let’s move along

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 16, 2019, 02:04:45 pm
Cubs reclaim Ian Clarkin.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 16, 2019, 03:51:55 pm
Quote
Paul Sullivan

Verified account
 
@PWSullivan
 3h3 hours ago
More
Ricketts have decided not to hold their popular Q-and-A session at Cubs Convention for reasons unknown. But here are some panels we'd like to see: Where's Bryce? Why’d ya do that, Joe? Should Ronnie Woo retire?


Waiting for usual suspects to spin this positively.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 16, 2019, 04:18:38 pm
Fan question to Joe: “What are the chances of Bryce Harper?” Maddon, no pause: “Not going to happen.” Jim Deshaies: “Lets move on”--Jesse Rogers

Well, scheisse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 16, 2019, 04:18:42 pm
They know there's gonna be backlash over not spending money.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 16, 2019, 04:20:06 pm

Waiting for usual suspects to spin this positively.

What, we should EXPECT the Cubs to sign the most expensive free agent on the market?

That should be an expectation and failing to do that represents some shortcoming?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 16, 2019, 04:24:57 pm
Great stuff with Jim Bowden on @espn1000. "The Cubs never engaged on Bryce Harper at all. They might make a whisper or two but they will not be making a big move."--Kaplan
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 16, 2019, 04:25:54 pm
Like Ive said before.

Im not upset over not wanting Harper.

Im upset about not wanting anybody.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on January 16, 2019, 04:27:50 pm
I will be upset if Machado signs for the reported 7/175 offer he has on the table from the Sox.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 16, 2019, 04:37:09 pm
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/chicago-cubs-bryce-harper-theo-epstein-tom-ricketts-crane-kenney-joe-maddon-world-series/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 16, 2019, 04:55:43 pm
Just because you have money is not reason enough to spend it on something that you do not think is worth that much money.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 16, 2019, 05:04:03 pm
Just because you have money is not reason enough to spend it on something that you do not think is worth that much money.

Quite true.  But without seriously TALKING to Harper, how do you even know how much "that much money" is?

Does this perhaps indicate some dissatisfaction from the Rickett's clan with the Theocracy?

Have they concluded that they have provided enough resources for him to win, and have continued winning, and simply are not going to give more (not a luxury tax issue) and are insisting that he do with what they have already provided?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on January 16, 2019, 05:26:05 pm
Tom Ricketts is a Cub fan as well as an owner.  He undoubtedly understands that improving the offense (which can be done without acquiring Harper or Machado) will greatly increase their chances for a championship this season.  I don't believe he would nix a reasonable deal on the basis that Theo should be able to make do with what he has.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 16, 2019, 06:03:16 pm
Tom Ricketts is a Cub fan as well as an owner.  He undoubtedly understands that improving the offense (which can be done without acquiring Harper or Machado) will greatly increase their chances for a championship this season.  I don't believe he would nix a reasonable deal on the basis that Theo should be able to make do with what he has.

The kind of money Harper would require might well involve the approval, or at least some consultation, of more than just Tom Ricketts.

I am not saying this IS what has happened, but merely tossing that out as a credible possibility.

Frankly it is hard to imagine much of ANY reason for the Cubs not to at least talk to Harper if they have the money.... and it appears they DO have the money.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on January 16, 2019, 06:18:29 pm
I will be upset if Machado signs for the reported 7/175 offer he has on the table from the Sox.
Fancred's Jon Heyman hears that the White Sox's reported offer of seven years, $175 million to Manny Machado is "way off."
ESPN's Buster Olney presented those numbers on Wednesday afternoon. Word is the White Sox aren't willing to go beyond seven years for Machado -- or Bryce Harper, for that matter -- but Heyman writes that the dollar value in this case "almost surely begins with a 2," as in $200-million-plus. The Phillies and Yankees are the only other two teams that have been connected publicly to Machado, though darkhorses could certainly emerge if the price drops well below the $300 million he was believed to be demanding at the start of the winter. Machado's agent Dan Lozano released a statement Wednesday evening decrying "completely wrong" reports about the market for his client. The saga continues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 16, 2019, 06:32:03 pm
Passan had the Machado offer as higher a couple of days ago, but a few writers (including Nightengale and Levine) shot it down. I think Passan is probably the second best rumor guy out there now (behind Rosenthal, of course), so I tend to think the agent is telling the truth.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 16, 2019, 06:38:16 pm
Quite true.  But without seriously TALKING to Harper, how do you even know how much "that much money" is?

Does this perhaps indicate some dissatisfaction from the Rickett's clan with the Theocracy?

Have they concluded that they have provided enough resources for him to win, and have continued winning, and simply are not going to give more (not a luxury tax issue) and are insisting that he do with what they have already provided?

I doubt very much that no one on the Cubs has talked to Harper's agent.  And if they didn't, how would any reporter know, with any degree of certainty.

I did see a report that the Cubs "never engaged" with Harper, but that is a rather ambiguous phrase, and there is no indication as to how the reporter could possibly know that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 16, 2019, 06:42:32 pm
Wasn’t there a report after the Winter Meetings that the Cubs met with Harper for 3 hours at the meetings? Or was that just from one of those fake rumor Twitter accounts that “reports” plausible things that could’ve happened?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 16, 2019, 07:22:11 pm
No one knows what the Cubs have or have not done with regard to Harper (except the Cubs, Harper and Boras, who cannot be relied upon to give an honest account). To my mind, what one can know is that Jim Bowden is one of the least reliable sources of this sort of thing. 

I do take seriously Joe Maddon saying "it's not gonna happen" or whatever the exact words were. That said, it is conceivable, if not likely, that even Maddon might not know what Theo et al are doing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 16, 2019, 08:48:20 pm
I find in hard to believe the Cubs have at least checked in on Harper. I can understand, but disagree with not wanting to sign him. Ducking out on the convention QA for Dempster’s Friday night show is BS. IF they are really limiting what Theo can spend they should take the heat from the fans. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 16, 2019, 09:00:36 pm
No one knows what the Cubs have or have not done with regard to Harper (except the Cubs, Harper and Boras, who cannot be relied upon to give an honest account). To my mind, what one can know is that Jim Bowden is one of the least reliable sources of this sort of thing. 

I do take seriously Joe Maddon saying "it's not gonna happen" or whatever the exact words were. That said, it is conceivable, if not likely, that even Maddon might not know what Theo et al are doing.

Since no deal has been reached yet, for Maddon to know with certainty, and to be able to say with absolute confidence, that the Cubs will not sign Harper, it sounds as if the Cubs are not seriously talking Harper, have not even attempted to do so, and really have no intention of doing so.  At this point, no one, not even Harper, really knows what is going to be required to sign him since offers can vaporize depending on happens with other offer teams have made.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 17, 2019, 09:04:59 am
Since no deal has been reached yet, for Maddon to know with certainty, and to be able to say with absolute confidence, that the Cubs will not sign Harper, it sounds as if the Cubs are not seriously talking Harper, have not even attempted to do so, and really have no intention of doing so.  At this point, no one, not even Harper, really knows what is going to be required to sign him since offers can vaporize depending on happens with other offer teams have made.

Actually, it sounds like Maddon has heard what Harper wants, either from the Front Office or from media guesses, and believes that he isn't worth that much to the Cubs.  It certainly isn't an indication that the Cubs have not even attempted to contact Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 17, 2019, 09:20:25 am
Wasn’t there a report after the Winter Meetings that the Cubs met with Harper for 3 hours at the meetings? Or was that just from one of those fake rumor Twitter accounts that “reports” plausible things that could’ve happened?

Quote
The Cubs reportedly met with outfielder Bryce Harper during Winter Meetings. Team president Theo Epstein urged Harper to not accept another team's offer before Chicago has a chance to clear payroll space. (Gordon Wittenmyer, Chicago Sun-Times)

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/12/24/mlb-rumors-bryce-harper-cubs-winter-meetings
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 17, 2019, 10:09:39 am
Gosh, it's almost like we can't believe rumors that are being reported.  What a surprise.  I don't recall that being the case in past off-seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 17, 2019, 10:21:25 am
This answer from Ricketts is just absurd:

670 The Score @670TheScore
#Cubs owner Tom Ricketts: "We look at our lineup and you look around the horn and you say, 'Who would you switch out?' ... We're going to be great. Judge us by what happens in the season, not what happens in December."


How about the domestic abuser at shortstop? Or the center field platoon where one guy can't hit and the other can't field the position? Or the guy whose most notable contribution in 3 years as a Cub is a locker room speech? Or how about solving one of those outfield spots with Bryant so you have an opening at third base? Half of the lineup could be switched out.

You can see why he'd want to hide from the fans this weekend if that's the best he can come up with. Saying "We just didn't want to spend any more of the huge profits we make" would be better--at least it would be honest and not patronizing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 17, 2019, 10:33:09 am
$205 million payroll is spending money. Theo mucked it up, but swapping out Heyward for Harper would be a huge upgrade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on January 17, 2019, 10:40:58 am
Cheap is the wrong word but they are definitely using the one resource they have in abundance to improve the team in this small window they have open. It's frustrating.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 17, 2019, 11:17:06 am
Tom Ricketts on not appearing at the convention

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxH20pTXQAABAka.jpg:small)

The mascot comment is almost funny.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on January 17, 2019, 12:06:49 pm
the questions were going to be different this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 17, 2019, 02:30:29 pm
Yes, the questions would have been different.  However, IMHO, a bit of perspective is in order re Ricketts not leading a panel discussion at the Cub Convention this weekend.

1st, IMHO, we are fortunate as hell to FINALLY have an owner who hired the right lead executive (Theo), is smart enough to stay the hell out of his way, and has proven to be VERY, VERY willing to invest in the club.

There were certainly some (e.g. Colin Coward) who felt the Ricketts family made a HORRIBLE investment in the Cubs that would NOT pay off.  The Ricketts' took the risk, figured out a way to make a creative deal and I'm glad they did!

And I can recall lots of sportswriters being all over Ricketts for not investing more earlier in Theo's tenure...but that turned out pretty well.  Certainly, Ricketts has provided Theo lots of bullets for rather expensive free agents and grabbing guys at the deadline.  Have they all worked out?  No.  That's the nature of free agency/trades.

However, if questions come up about spending (as they would) and Ricketts is pinned into saying, "We would find the money in the right situation"...what impact might that have on Boras' behavior re Cubs and Harper?  I'd say the ONLY shot we have at Harper is if the market isn't what Boras expects (and he becomes available as Arietta did last year).  That could possibly happen.  IMHO, it's less likely to happen if Boras thinks Ricketts is frothing at the mouth for Harper.

Is Ricketts the perfect owner?  Probably not.  However, I'll sure as hell take him over most any other in MLB.

Finally, as for the questions he would be asked, if you were owner, would you want to be asked about Addison Russell in a convention setting or would you rather have someone like Theo continue to address that issue? 

For me, that doesn't make Ricketts a bad guy: I'm as conflicted as many of you about Russell.  If he cleans his life up and fulfills his baseball promise, I'll be glad we kept him.  And, if I were Ricketts, I'd continue to let Theo speak to the Russell situation and every other baseball issue, almost whenever possible.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 17, 2019, 02:51:26 pm
Ron, are you heading to the Convention this weekend? 

If so, another great in-person report from you would be much appreciated around here.

(same goes for any other Board contributors who might attend this year)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 17, 2019, 02:53:43 pm
This answer from Ricketts is just absurd:

670 The Score @670TheScore
#Cubs owner Tom Ricketts: "We look at our lineup and you look around the horn and you say, 'Who would you switch out?' ...

........Half of the lineup could be switched out...


BR’s one-half of the lineup or Ricketts ‘who would you switch out’?

Think that Ricketts is much closer to the truth.

There is one position: switching out Heyward for Harper. But, obviously, switching out Heyward is no easy task. If Cubs could move Heyward out, no doubt Cubs would be in on Harper.

Yes, Cubs could play Heyward in CF primarily and sign Harper. Would like to have seen that too. But, as a practical matter, not unreasonable that there is some kind of limit on club payroll. Some here and elsewhere don’t want to accept that reality but every club has a max. If you opposed the Heyward signing three years ago, raise your hand-—-that’s why Cubs not in on Harper. No other reason.

Cubs were 6th in CF OPS in NL 2018 and the incumbents will play 2019 season at ages 24 and 25, so there is upside in CF. Russell at SS is a non-baseball matter. You can argue that either way on non-baseball issues. Absent that, there would be no baseball issue about Russell as a regular for 2019. Don’t see Schwarber/LF as an issue going into 2019 either. After 2019, depending on these guys’ performances, that will be revisited. Think that Theo said as much recently. Cubs could have tweaked, emphasizing getting a lead-off guy. But, Theo said from day one of off-season not a priority and doesn’t seem to be an economic matter. A baseball decision, seemingly.

Rotation is set. Remarkably, nobody really complaining about that here.

Bullpen—of course moves still have to be made. Presumably, will be. And, probably in-season too, which is a consistent front office plan most every season. Bullpens are unpredictible. We all know that. Would have been nice to get one of the signature relievers. Can blame that on a few of the holdovers under 2019 contract. Baseball decisions—-they don’t all work out.

As far as the lineup goes, it’s all about Harper. Let’s not exaggerate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 17, 2019, 03:07:29 pm
As far as Ricketts ownership goes, Good Grief, this is fantastically good ownership.

As a NFL ‘Skins fans, we have Dan Snyder—-a fantastically Bad owner who will never go away, seemingly, and destroyed perennial contender ‘Skins. Or, up the road a bit, the fantastically Bad Peter Angelos who destroyed perennial contender Orioles.

Or, how about the fantastically disinterested Phil Wrigley for several ownership Cubs decades—-who made the fantastically tepid Tribune Company seem like a step or five upward?

Ricketts is at the park during the season. Go talk to him.  Saw him here in D.C. at Cubs game talking to fans. The guy is all over the place. The guy brought a World Series here, what two years plus ago?

Good Grief. Who cares if he isn’t hosting a panel in January?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 17, 2019, 03:07:33 pm
Ron, are you heading to the Convention this weekend? 

If so, another great in-person report from you would be much appreciated around here.

(same goes for any other Board contributors who might attend this year)

Nope. The last convention I attended, a few years ago, was such a madhouse I really did not enjoy it all that much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 17, 2019, 03:22:48 pm
Make sure you check back in with your Norman Vincent Peale circle jerk when the bullpen turns into a dumpster fire.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 17, 2019, 03:25:36 pm
Gosh, it's almost like we can't believe rumors that are being reported.  What a surprise.  I don't recall that being the case in past off-seasons.
I heard a rumor that isn't true.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 17, 2019, 03:51:18 pm
Quote
Sahadev Sharma

Verified account
 
@sahadevsharma
 20m20 minutes ago
More
Tom Ricketts spoke today and explained why his team is going about their offseason they they have. @jon_greenberg wrote about it. Interesting how many times Ricketts said "people don't get..." https://theathletic.com/773442/2019/01/17/tom-ricketts-speaks-cubs-chairman-does-quick-radio-tour-in-lieu-of-facing-fans-questions-at-cubs-convention/ …


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxJLDjYUYAEJP0X.jpg)


Sahadev Sharma

Verified account
 
@sahadevsharma
 18m18 minutes ago
More
It's important to know baseball labor history (really any labor history) when reading Ricketts quotes. The circumstances change slightly, but the owners are always talking about things the non-owners just possibly couldn't understand that's keeping them from spending more

8 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 17, 2019, 04:02:24 pm
Well, Deeg, you've proven yourself to be a really smart, capable baseball fan (lacking MUCH information Theo has).

Theo has proven to be a really smart, capable baseball executive who has WAY more information than we ever get.

Ricketts has proven to HEAVILY rely on Theo and give him most all of what he asks for, including money for relievers.

Of course, the Central will be super tough this year and the Cubs may fall back...almost no matter what we do now.

Given Cubs track record in the past 4 years, I'd say Theo and Tom have earned the benefit of the doubt about what the best course of action should be under all circumstances; however, differences of opinion make this Board better reading.

It's certainly possible that you may be right and Theo (and/or Tom) may be wrong.  MLB is HARD to predict.




Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 17, 2019, 04:21:02 pm
The Quick Look Zips Projections came out for the Cardinals (Last Year's fWAR)
Rotation: 12.9 WAR  (14.3)
Bullpen: 4.2 WAR  (0.5)
Position: 24.2 WAR (25.1)

Cubs last year
Rotation: 8.9
Bullpen: 4
Position: 27.2
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 17, 2019, 04:58:02 pm
Well, Deeg, you've proven yourself to be a really smart, capable baseball fan (lacking MUCH information Theo has).

Theo has proven to be a really smart, capable baseball executive who has WAY more information than we ever get.

Ricketts has proven to HEAVILY rely on Theo and give him most all of what he asks for, including money for relievers.

Of course, the Central will be super tough this year and the Cubs may fall back...almost no matter what we do now.

Given Cubs track record in the past 4 years, I'd say Theo and Tom have earned the benefit of the doubt about what the best course of action should be under all circumstances; however, differences of opinion make this Board better reading.

It's certainly possible that you may be right and Theo (and/or Tom) may be wrong.  MLB is HARD to predict.


Ben, I appreciate your unwavering civility, even if we disagree on your unwavering optimism sometimes!

The thing that really scares me is that even in our good years, Theo’s bullpen strategy has yielded dodgy results.  He’s always tried to do it on the cheap, but at least he tried to do it.  What happens when he’s not allowed to even try?

The other red flag is that it’s clear something has changed, and Theo is not dealing with the same reality he was expecting last winter or even after the season ended.  He had contingency plans he’s not being allowed to pursue.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 17, 2019, 05:08:19 pm
Somebody here who is in the financial world may know how this works, but the stock market has taken some big hits and some big swings in the past 3 months.  Did any of that impact TD Ameritrade in a big way?  Some Ricketts' losses may be hidden but we're getting a glimpse in their current baseball spending.  I don't know I'm asking.  What I'm asking is could the Ricketts have some money shuffling problems that are trying to keep secret in a way to stave off panic?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 17, 2019, 05:50:13 pm
I wasn't on the board then, but nobody here calculated the payroll numbers for 2019 until this off-season? Don't recall any of the beat writers doing it then.

kind of predictable that Cubs were looking at hefty 2019 payroll increase even doing nothing, if the Hamels option were to be exercised. And, the Hamels option (or some kind of big Hamels salary hit) came into play before end of 2018 season once Hamels was doing so well. Not a shock they'd want to retain him for 2019 at that point.

The notion that Theo was not aware of this and was shocked, SHOCKED that he would have significant payroll restraints at that point is laughable.

Folks, included the beat writers, should have run the numbers. All of us here. Then, sure if Cubs were okay with being in the final top tier of the luxury tax penalties (including international signings and draft position penalties), then yes the heck with a zooming payroll. Turns out Cubs have a payroll limit. This should not be a shock to us, in retrospect.

And, anybody have an educated guess how much Cubs lost in revenue by not having a whole bunch of post-season games in 2018? That may be a factor too for 2019 payroll.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 17, 2019, 06:01:35 pm
Tony Andrecki tweeted Theo new the budget when he picked up Hamels option.

Theo also knew that Darvish et al would effect futures spending.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/02/14/epstein-explains-darvish-signing-impacts-pursuit-harp-er-future-free-agents/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 17, 2019, 06:55:31 pm
I wasn't on the board then, but nobody here calculated the payroll numbers for 2019 until this off-season? Don't recall any of the beat writers doing it then.

kind of predictable that Cubs were looking at hefty 2019 payroll increase even doing nothing, if the Hamels option were to be exercised. And, the Hamels option (or some kind of big Hamels salary hit) came into play before end of 2018 season once Hamels was doing so well. Not a shock they'd want to retain him for 2019 at that point.

The notion that Theo was not aware of this and was shocked, SHOCKED that he would have significant payroll restraints at that point is laughable.

Folks, included the beat writers, should have run the numbers. All of us here. Then, sure if Cubs were okay with being in the final top tier of the luxury tax penalties (including international signings and draft position penalties), then yes the heck with a zooming payroll. Turns out Cubs have a payroll limit. This should not be a shock to us, in retrospect.

And, anybody have an educated guess how much Cubs lost in revenue by not having a whole bunch of post-season games in 2018? That may be a factor too for 2019 payroll.

In the all or nothing world you live in where any criticism of the organization is inherently flawed because it’s coming from plebs less expert than you, that may be true.  But the real world has shades of grey.

Theo obviously knew he had payroll limits going into this season, like every season. He knew he couldn’t have a $400 million payroll. But it’s obvious both in the moves he made last winter and his drastic change in tone since October that those limits are very different than what he was originally told.

This idea that ignorant Cubs fans are just salty because the Cubs didn’t sign Harper and Machado is the standard straw man club apologists throw out there every time this point comes up. Most of the fans expressing concern now (excusing talk radio callers) are upset because the Cubs have done basically nothing. Because they deemed Chavez to be too expensive, and seem to be sitting out a glut market of relievers entirely. But it’s a lot harder to mock that argument so it’s never the one that’s contested.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on January 17, 2019, 07:09:21 pm
The irony is rich, yes?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 17, 2019, 07:22:31 pm
The irony is rich, yes?

Self-awareness is not a strength for some.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 17, 2019, 07:40:50 pm
Actually, it sounds like Maddon has heard what Harper wants, either from the Front Office or from media guesses, and believes that he isn't worth that much to the Cubs.  It certainly isn't an indication that the Cubs have not even attempted to contact Harper.

Here is the problem with that explanation -- we always hear what players want, and quite routinely see them signing for well less.  The farther into the offseason things go, the lower signing price tags tend to fall.  In other words, even if what Harper said he wants is to the the first BILLION DOLLAR player, and that he wanted to get paid that every year, it would make no sense for the Cubs to bow out if they were in any way serious in their interest or willing to make a real effort.  NO player is going to get that.  So salary demands which are unreasonable, or which might be reasonable but are beyond what a team is willing to pay, does not mean a team is completely out of the running for a FA.

Madden's unequivocal comment would seem to indicate something more... such as the front office has made the decision it simply is not going to try.  Again, it sounds as if the Cubs are not seriously talking Harper, have not even attempted to do so, and really have no intention of doing so.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 17, 2019, 09:14:19 pm
Attn. @JSalisburyNBCS The Cubs have not checked in on Bryce Harper. I had Tom Ricketts on my radio show today on @ESPN1000 and he confirmed they are not involved. 100%. Never got involved at all.--Kaplan
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 18, 2019, 08:18:35 am
Attn. @JSalisburyNBCS The Cubs have not checked in on Bryce Harper. I had Tom Ricketts on my radio show today on @ESPN1000 and he confirmed they are not involved. 100%. Never got involved at all.--Kaplan

Any chance that comment from Ricketts was followed up with the obvious -- WHY NOT?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 18, 2019, 02:27:12 pm
Perhaps he feels that the same techniques that worked so well with Darvish might also work with Harper.

But more likely, he just believes that Harper is not worth the money and years that he seems likely to get.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 18, 2019, 03:09:01 pm
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with RHP and Willowbrook High alum Rob Scahill
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 18, 2019, 05:43:49 pm
Scahill upped his K% last year in AAA, even though the results weren’t great.

Theo fired up on ESPN 1000.

- need to put their foot on throat of the division from game 1. Players understand that we are the Cubs and it will work out doesn’t work.
-  initial reaction was to release Russell. Theo has been in frequent contact with Melissa and they are trying to rehab him. It is a conditional second chance. Contract is non-guaranteed. 4-5 days/week of counseling which will continue past the MLB suspension.  Said domestic violence experts believe in a second chance.
- they have a 40 hour training program on domestic violence for front office, players, wives. Etc...

- gonna go run through a wall for Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 18, 2019, 05:44:38 pm
Kris Bryant said Harper aint coming here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 18, 2019, 06:25:03 pm
#Cubs' Theo Epstein: "I promise you, I promise our fans, this is the hardest I've worked in an offseason." https://t.co/6bKaq9WzmJ
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 18, 2019, 06:53:22 pm
#Cubs' Theo Epstein: "I promise you, I promise our fans, this is the hardest I've worked in an offseason." https://t.co/6bKaq9WzmJ


Jim Hendry was negotiating serious deals from his hospital bed, and the guy PERSONALLY scouted Cub minor leaguers when they played during the season to see how they were developing.

Working HARD is not all that important.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on January 18, 2019, 07:01:07 pm
Bryant seems unhappy

https://twitter.com/espnchicubs/status/1086421037217128448
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 18, 2019, 08:19:41 pm
Theo “impact” player (Harper/Machado)extremely unlikely. Still looking to add to the bullpen. They are happy with the position players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 18, 2019, 08:20:05 pm
Interesting comment from Bryant.  Don't recall anything like that from a Cubs player. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 18, 2019, 08:21:14 pm
#Cubs' Theo Epstein: "I promise you, I promise our fans, this is the hardest I've worked in an offseason." https://t.co/6bKaq9WzmJ

I really believe this is true. I know some on this board have parsed Theo's words from the end-of-season press conference and rationalized that he was really saying that they'd make changes next year if players didn't make progress for a third consecutive year...but almost everyone else interpreted Theo's words as saying that there would be big changes this offseason. I listened to follow-up podcasts. Sharma and whoever else was on the Athletic's episode the next day were sure there were going to be changes. Kaplan and his meathead crew committed a whole podcast to speculating on what the changes would be. Even Bleacher Nation--the blog that toes the company line more than anyone--thought there would be changes in their write-up of the press conference.

Even if he knew Harper and Machado weren't options, Theo entered the offseason with plans to make changes. Sometime between the press conference and the start of the offseason, Ricketts pulled the rug out from under him. So of course he has had to work harder than ever to adjust, even if it hasn't produced results at this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 18, 2019, 08:24:15 pm
Theo “impact” player (Harper/Machado)extremely unlikely. Still looking to add to the bullpen. They are happy with the position players.

I hope "position players" doesn't include backup catcher. They still really need to address that. They're setting Contreras up to fail if they don't give Joe a backup catcher he trusts to give Contreras more time off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 18, 2019, 08:39:52 pm
Haven't read everything, but I thought some comments from the Ricketts radio circuit were significant.  I understood them to say that the Cubs are spending to their revenue; and implied that they have basically reached their level.  So we might not want to expect big jumps in payroll future.  That we won't have the capacity to spend with Yankees and Dodgers; we'll be in the next tier. 

Thought his comment was quite fare, that payroll has jumped again by a big hunk.  He didn't say it, but that built-in inflation is going to continue.  Hendricks, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Contreras, those guys will all be situated for big-time jumps yet again next year. 

Ricketts also spoke to what I have always assumed to be true about last winter's spending.  The guys Theo spent on (Darvish, Chatwood, Morrow...) were largely worthless last year.  But they were spending ahead and aggressively; with negligible playoff revenue, with the need for spending a bundle on Hamels, and with the massive built-in raises for the young guys, spending that much last winter pushed them and in a sense was spending a year early. 

In retrospect, it's appropriate to fault Theo and his advisors on their scouting.  How surprised should they be that Chatwood has control problems?  How surprised should they be that Darvish gives up HR's, or that recently-injured Darvish and Morrow should experience injuries? 

But I totally support the logic in going for it last year instead of saving up for this winter.  Every year the window closes, and last year should have been the best window of opportunity.  The wear on Lester and Quintana and Hendricks arms is only going to increase; the salaries for the position younsters are only going to go up; go for it while you can.  So going for Darvish made sense, and while the choice of Chatwood was disastrous, the attempt to get somebody rather than go into a world-series year with Montgomery locked in and Tseng as next-man-up wouldn't have been wise. 

So I think the choice to go all-in last winter was good strategy, even if the guys they went in on busted.  They took their chance; now they'll need to ride with the guys they gambled on.  And hopefully the guys Theo and the brain-trust committed to will give them something good this year. 

heh heh, why not Chatwood as comeback player of the year?  Chatwood and Darvish can come in 1st and 2nd!  :):)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 18, 2019, 08:44:05 pm
....Even if he knew Harper and Machado weren't options, Theo entered the offseason with plans to make changes. Sometime between the press conference and the start of the offseason, Ricketts pulled the rug out from under him. So of course he has had to work harder than ever to adjust, even if it hasn't produced results at this point.

One other possible spin on this is that Theo thought his guys would have greater trade value on the market, and that he'd make some significant trades; but no other GM's value them as much as Theo does?  Maybe every other GM in baseball thinks Theo overrates his guys, so doesn't want to pay his price to trade for them? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 18, 2019, 08:52:20 pm
Bryant wasnt talking about the Cubs in regards to Machado and Harper...

"Two of the best players in the game, and (teams) have very little interest in them, from what I hear,” Bryant said. “It’s not good. It’s something that’s going to have to change. I know a lot of the other players are upset about it.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 18, 2019, 09:01:31 pm
....
Theo fired up on ESPN 1000.
- need to put their foot on throat of the division from game 1. Players understand that we are the Cubs and it will work out doesn’t work.
-  ....

This has been his recurring and primary theme, that it's about more attitude, not more talent.  Every interview I've seen has focused on how determination, motivation, and erasing complacency/entitlement is going to solve things. Seems pretty self-satisfied that he's assembled enough talent.  I hope he's right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 18, 2019, 09:04:16 pm
Bryant seems unhappy

https://twitter.com/espnchicubs/status/1086421037217128448


He should be. Under Clark’s hilariously incompetent leadership the players have allowed themselves to be roundly rogered under the current CBA. The next negotiation is going to be ugly and probably accompanied by a lengthy work stoppage.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 18, 2019, 09:05:12 pm
I think some people underestimated how difficult it is to upgrade on Schwarber which seemed to be the guy the podcasts were targeting for the upgrade.

The TV contract will still provide a boost to revenue in the future, but it still won’t get them into the Yankees or Dodgers level of revenue.  The Cubs ARE spending like the Dodgers and Yankees though. They were within $2 million of both last year. They are currently spending $12 million more than the Dodgers and $7 million more than the Yankees before they trade Sonny Gray. Maybe Yankee and Dodger fans are the ones who should be ticked.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 18, 2019, 09:06:33 pm
This has been his recurring and primary theme, that it's about more attitude, not more talent.  Every interview I've seen has focused on how determination, motivation, and erasing complacency/entitlement is going to solve things. Seems pretty self-satisfied that he's assembled enough talent.  I hope he's right.

Clearly (contrary to his initial expectations) he doesn’t have much choice but to be.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 18, 2019, 09:07:58 pm
This has been his recurring and primary theme, that it's about more attitude, not more talent.  Every interview I've seen has focused on how determination, motivation, and erasing complacency/entitlement is going to solve things. Seems pretty self-satisfied that he's assembled enough talent.  I hope he's right.

He was much more animated than his usual radio interviews and went much more in depth about Russell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 18, 2019, 09:09:03 pm
Once again, I thought Bryant was supposed to get Harper to Chicago with his smile and charm and wife being besties with Harper's wife.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 18, 2019, 09:10:18 pm
Bryant wasnt talking about the Cubs in regards to Machado and Harper...

"Two of the best players in the game, and (teams) have very little interest in them, from what I hear,” Bryant said. “It’s not good. It’s something that’s going to have to change. I know a lot of the other players are upset about it.”


Possibly... but Bryant did NOT say "teams have very little interest in them."  He said "THEY have very little interest in them."

It is entirely unclear whether the "they" he referenced is the Cubs (which was my original assumption), or the rest of MLB.

“Its weird. It’s really weird. Two of the best players in the game and they have very little interest in them, from just what I hear. It's not good. Its something that will have to change. I know a lot of the other players are upset about it.”

And it is unclear whether the reference to "a lot of other players" meant other players all over the league or "other players" on the Cubs, which was my original assumption.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 18, 2019, 09:12:51 pm
This has been his recurring and primary theme, that it's about more attitude, not more talent.  Every interview I've seen has focused on how determination, motivation, and erasing complacency/entitlement is going to solve things. Seems pretty self-satisfied that he's assembled enough talent.  I hope he's right.

So the PLAYERS are supposed to put their foot on the throat of the opposition, but that is NOT something to be done with MANAGEMENT moves.....  Yeah, that seems like a tremendously brilliant approach by the braintrust.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 18, 2019, 09:19:20 pm
The reference was to MLB, not the Cubs.

This video is a little clearer and Kris walks back the not signing here a bit.

https://twitter.com/nbcschicago/status/1086409540357230597?s=21
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 18, 2019, 11:06:38 pm
Let's say the Cubs gave Bryce $30M a year for 10 years.  The risk would be that he could get hurt and decline like a Tulo, but to have a player that would keep the team in contention year after year if healthy, what would the payback be?  Someone better with baseball finances figure that, please.   In attendance, in a bump in tv and radio rights, in all kind of merchandise sales...would he be worth $30 million a year?  Or is that what the owner and FO are saying, with the current attendance and rights deals and merchandise sales, he wouldn't add near as much as he cost?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 18, 2019, 11:43:59 pm
Let's say the Cubs gave Bryce $30M a year for 10 years.  The risk would be that he could get hurt and decline like a Tulo, but to have a player that would keep the team in contention year after year if healthy, what would the payback be?  Someone better with baseball finances figure that, please.   In attendance, in a bump in tv and radio rights, in all kind of merchandise sales...would he be worth $30 million a year?  Or is that what the owner and FO are saying, with the current attendance and rights deals and merchandise sales, he wouldn't add near as much as he cost?

But what if they offered him $50M for ONE year?

There are ways things can be done... when you try to do them.

It is the lack of effort that concerns me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 09:40:02 am
This has been his recurring and primary theme, that it's about more attitude, not more talent.  Every interview I've seen has focused on how determination, motivation, and erasing complacency/entitlement is going to solve things. Seems pretty self-satisfied that he's assembled enough talent.  I hope he's right.

I agree, Craig, but I would phrase it a little differently.  I don't think that he is satisfied with the talent.  No one ever is or should be.  But I think that he is satisfied that he has assembled as much offensive talent as is possible given budget and market restraints.  As you indicated above, last winter, when they had a large burst of free agent money, he warned us that they were spending some of the next year's money in advance.  It shouldn't have come as a surprise.

As far as spending to revenue levels, that doesn't mean that spending in future years will necessarily be low.  It is true that our arbitration players will be getting raises, but also, with the new media contracts, revenue may well grow at a faster rate than current salaries.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 09:50:30 am
Once again, I thought Bryant was supposed to get Harper to Chicago with his smile and charm and wife being besties with Harper's wife.

Friendship between the two players might help a little if the competing bids were very close, but I don't think anyone on the board ever believed that it would be sufficient to close the deal in and of itself. Perhaps you were being a little unrealistic in your expectations.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 09:55:54 am

Possibly... but Bryant did NOT say "teams have very little interest in them."  He said "THEY have very little interest in them."

It is entirely unclear whether the "they" he referenced is the Cubs (which was my original assumption), or the rest of MLB.

“Its weird. It’s really weird. Two of the best players in the game and they have very little interest in them, from just what I hear. It's not good. Its something that will have to change. I know a lot of the other players are upset about it.”

And it is unclear whether the reference to "a lot of other players" meant other players all over the league or "other players" on the Cubs, which was my original assumption.

Since there is no context, any assumption of who the "they" is in that sentence is nothing more than an uneducated guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 19, 2019, 10:34:24 am
I agree, Craig, but I would phrase it a little differently.  I don't think that he is satisfied with the talent.  No one ever is or should be.  But I think that he is satisfied that he has assembled as much offensive talent as is possible given budget and market restraints.  As you indicated above, last winter, when they had a large burst of free agent money, he warned us that they were spending some of the next year's money in advance.  It shouldn't have come as a surprise.

As far as spending to revenue levels, that doesn't mean that spending in future years will necessarily be low.  It is true that our arbitration players will be getting raises, but also, with the new media contracts, revenue may well grow at a faster rate than current salaries.

It made sense to spend last year to get pitching help; if the guys they'd signed then were good, they could help for 2018 as well as 2019 and 2020.  Why wait till 2019 and blow a year of premium opportunity?  Obviously if you buy guys that don't produce, you don't get limitless do-overs.  But strategy-wise, conceptually, it was fully justifiable, in my view. 

If you stay status-quo with roster, the payroll is going to continue to rise, sharply, just as happened this year.  They've dumped Smily and spent less to sign Descalzo; but the payroll has still jumped by what, $30-40 million?  (My numbers may be mixed up; I don't know what's "payroll" versus "taxed payroll", or what's "salary" versus "expenses" or taxable stuff.  But, qualitatively, it's been a non-trivial inflation on existing personnel.) 

That large escalation for existing personnel will recur next year.  If they basically sit status quo with roster for 2020, it's going to jump a bundle more.  I agree, that may not mean they'll need to be cutting salaries.  It's possible that revenue growth may match payroll inflation.  So I'm not assuming they'll need to be stripping good players; but as was true this year, I expect they'll be stretching to accommodate existing personnel, and will again NOT be players for big-ticket FA talent. 

Going to hang out in the top-5 in payroll, but without being able to buy a lot of new talent.  They're largely going to sink or swim with the talent they've already assembled.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 19, 2019, 10:47:39 am
In Theo's ESPN Silvey-Waddle interview yesterday, he did talk about "making adjustments", players having plans to make adjustments.  We'll see how that goes, and who does so.  Qualitatively, it has been my observation that guys haven't really seemed to adjust advantageously.  Pitchers have a book on how to attack our hitters; whatever adjustments the hitters have made, haven't resulted in upgrade performance other than Baez. Happ and coach talked a lot about adjustment plan going into last year, but those adjustments did not suffice to offset the pitching approach to attacking him.  His K rate just went up. 

Russell has perhaps adjusted the most, with his strong adjustment in the opposite-field hitting.  Which happened to the exclusion of HR power.  Maybe without the adjustment he'd have been even worse, but the adjusted Russell hasn't been nearly as good as rookie-sophomore Russell, maybe before pitchers knew as well as they now know how to attack him. 

Will be interesting to see what adjustments if any are visible this season, and whether some of them help, for the hitters. 

Obviously some may be too subtle for me to notice. 

I wonder what adjustments are intended pitching-wise?  Hendricks and Lester are always thinking and adjusting in varying ways, I think.  Chatwood is the obvious adjustment candidate.  Last year, of course, he said that Cubs had a lot of adjustment suggestions, which he found to be personally counterproductive and exacerbated his control problems.  Edwards would seem to be the other most obvious adjustment candidate.  I'm sure Maples has tried every adjustment anybody could dream of already.  Kinzler might be an adjustment guy.  I wonder if Randy Rosario might be an adjustment candidate?  Montgomery too.  Darvish, who knows. 

I think adjusting is easier for pitchers; you get a lot of throws, and you're the guy who controls everthing.  Hitters are responders, and you only see so many pitches.  Batting practice is so non-representative, not sure how much BP-adjustments can carry over against big-league pitchers who are actually trying to get you out and throwing with velocity and movement and deception. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 19, 2019, 10:55:46 am
Theo provides more detail and depth regarding Russell.

https://theathletic.com/776079/2019/01/18/theo-epsteins-candid-assessment-of-addison-russells-future-with-the-cubs-it-may-not-work-and-if-it-doesnt-we-will-move-on-instantaneously/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 11:07:30 am
There is an old saying in baseball that Arguello often quoted.  Development is never linear.  Sometimes, "adjustments" in stance, grip, or even attitude can make sudden improvements, and should be tried when having difficulty improving, but sometimes a player just suddenly "gets it" and has a quantum jump in performance.  Koufax struggled in the major leagues for 6 or 7 years before turning it around at about age 26, and never looked back.  Jose Bautista never hit more than 16 home runs, and was essentially given away by Pittsburgh before suddenly becoming a super star power hitter.  Many others have done the same thing to a lesser extent.  Granted, it is foolish to expect someone with mediocre talent to suddenly become a star.  But someone that has obvious talent at least gives the possibility of improvement due perhaps to nothing more than aging and the passage of time.  I don't think that it is unrealistic to hope, or even expect players in their early to middle 20s to improve with nothing more than maturity, experience and minor adjustments.

And I am sure that no GM wants to be the one that gives up on Schwarber, only to see him become the next Babe Ruth, or Russell fulfilling the predictions of becoming the next Barry Larkin with another team.  Forming final opinions on a talented player at age 24 or 24 is probably not a winning strategy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 19, 2019, 11:17:51 am
Let's say the Cubs gave Bryce $30M a year for 10 years.  The risk would be that he could get hurt and decline like a Tulo, but to have a player that would keep the team in contention year after year if healthy, what would the payback be?  Someone better with baseball finances figure that, please.   In attendance, in a bump in tv and radio rights, in all kind of merchandise sales...would he be worth $30 million a year?  Or is that what the owner and FO are saying, with the current attendance and rights deals and merchandise sales, he wouldn't add near as much as he cost?
Nobody has responded to this.  If we gave him $30M would he bring in a minimum of $30M in attendance and merchandise sales?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 19, 2019, 11:25:04 am
Nobody has responded to this.  If we gave him $30M would he bring in a minimum of $30M in attendance and merchandise sales?

A better question is how much more value would Harper bring to the deal value and that would likely be thee biggest $$ contribution to the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 19, 2019, 11:28:05 am
Friendship between the two players might help a little if the competing bids were very close, but I don't think anyone on the board ever believed that it would be sufficient to close the deal in and of itself. Perhaps you were being a little unrealistic in your expectations.

Wasn't my expectations. It was widely suggested that Harper was a "heavy lean" if you will because he and Bryant were boyhood buddies and their wives hung out together.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on January 19, 2019, 11:34:59 am
He still might be but he’s not going to play for free.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 12:09:50 pm
Nobody has responded to this.  If we gave him $30M would he bring in a minimum of $30M in attendance and merchandise sales?

The Cubs are already in contention year after year, and are playing to essentially a packed house every day.  And they already have one of the highest ticket price in baseball.  Any major increase in revenue would have to come from post season ticket sales, and increased TV viewing, assuming whatever deal they work out with their new TV package rewards them with increased revenue as viewing rises, which is very likely.

But those who think that having a player of his caliber will keep his team in contention did not watch the Cubs team led by Ernie Banks in the 1950s.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 19, 2019, 12:12:12 pm
Yeah, I'm not sure harper would create an extra $40M in revenue. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 19, 2019, 12:12:32 pm
I suspect that every person has such a different definition of "heavy lean", that it has little meaning whatsoever in communication.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 19, 2019, 12:20:18 pm

Some of the convention sessions are available online.  Just watched the players panel with Zobrist, Bryant, Contreras and Baez. Lot of fun. Very likable group. Very funny moments. Seem to very comfortable and happy with each other.  Zobrist the most comfortable and articulate conversationally.  Couple of moments: after being asked what is the hardest thing about hitting, Javy said "hitting." Zobrist said being able to see the spin - said you guys are watching a game and saying "Why did he swing at that pitch that was a foot low." The reason is because we didn't know it was going to drop 12 inches when it came out of the pitcher's hand at 100 mph."  Lots of laughter.

Another moment was when someone asked who is the best infielder on the Cubs, and the other three guys just looked at Javy and said, in effect, "seriously?"

https://www.facebook.com/Cubs/videos/293814717987901/?notif_id=1547917668630432&notif_t=live_video_explicit
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 19, 2019, 03:27:07 pm
Cubs are in talks to add a team outside of Chicago to their network. When the network starts home Spring Training games would be televised.

The team outside of the network would be interesting. I’m not sure who would really fit. The Blackhawks would have seemed to be a better partner for games in the winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on January 19, 2019, 05:11:50 pm
Thanks for posting the link, Ron.  Lots of fun moments.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 19, 2019, 09:00:31 pm
Roster Resource has Cubs estimated CBT luxury tax payroll now sitting at about $225. See link below. (Cots has Cubs at about $222).

Top CBT tier is $40 above the $206 threshold—-so $246 at which a club moves down 10 spots in 1st round of draft and loses int’l money. Second tier starts at $226, so Cubs figure to be there. Probably.

Guessing that Ricketts payroll max might be just below $246?

Of course, possible Cubs don’t base payroll on CBT but, instead, some other methodology

So, assuming a CBT-based payroll for sake of discussion, that’s about $21 AAV available, including whatever amount Theo wants to hold back for mid-season acquisitions. Of course, if trade somebody or dump a non-guaranteed contract, more could be available.

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs-info/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 20, 2019, 12:41:56 pm

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
From Cubs convention, Cole Hamels def thinking about stepping up in the leadership dept now that he'll be here for a full year: “That’s where I need to be. That’s the role directed towards you if you play this game long enough.” Says he'll be more vocal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 20, 2019, 04:37:09 pm
Sharma with another column about how Ben Zobrist could have been (and could still be) traded this offseason. He's been beating that drum a lot this offseason.

https://theathletic.com/776813/2019/01/20/im-one-of-the-pawns-ben-zobrist-faced-his-mortality-as-a-cub-this-offseason-but-thinks-he-can-be-part-of-solution/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 20, 2019, 04:45:01 pm
That’s the dilemma. The one guy you could trade to cut payroll who actually has value is the guy you want to keep. Funny how that works.

I don’t see the point in trading Zobrist.  He’s one guy in the lineup, even at his age, who figures to be a consistent and smart hitter if he’s healthy.  How does it make sense to trade that guy if the offense is, as Theo said, “broken”?  If we’re at the point where we have to subtract core pieces in order to make a move, I’d just stand pat and hope the kumbaya crowd is right about guys being better than they were last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 20, 2019, 05:05:50 pm
With Baez,Russell,Bote,Descalso,and Happ we should have SS/2B covered and with Schwarber,Almora,Happ,and Heyward we should be set in the OF.

If trading Zobrist meant we could add a solid reliever Im all for it.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 20, 2019, 05:10:44 pm
That’s the dilemma. The one guy you could trade to cut payroll who actually has value is the guy you want to keep. Funny how that works.

Yeah, but I think it's reasonable to suggest that trading Zobrist now would be selling high. He was pretty bad in 2017, and he had the highest BABIP of his career last year which probably means the underlying stats don't support as big a rebound as we saw. I don't think anyone would be that surprised to see him regress close to his 2017 level.

As always, it really depends on what his value is and how much salary you save. If the Cubs could get a good and reasonably cheap reliever in the deal that still saves money to go address another hole (another reliever or backup catcher), it might make sense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 20, 2019, 05:16:18 pm
I realize some will not be persuaded that he meant it, but Theo has clarified or qualified his "broken" remark by saying he was only referring to how the offense performed in the second half, and that he does not consider it "permanently broken."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 20, 2019, 05:50:52 pm
It always referred to the second half, people are just ignoring that part.


"Here's where I am about the offense," Epstein said Wednesday afternoon, "I mean this with no disrespect to our players, I respect them all greatly in every way and our coaches and our front office and everybody involved. There's no disrespect, but I think part of getting better is facing the problem.

"Our offense broke somewhere along the lines."

"Of course there's going to be a thorough examination," Epstein said. "Of course we're going to spend all our energy into fixing it and fix it. If you look back at the first half of the season, we led the league in runs scored. We led the league in OPS. We led the league in virtually every significant offensive category. We were cruising. We felt really good offensively.

"We had cut way down on our strikeouts. We had sacrificed some power, but not all. We were getting on base at a huge clip and scoring a ton of runs and we felt good about our offensive roster 1-through-13, really. Every player.

"Then, in the second half, things were dramatically different, sort of culminating in what happened down the stretch and these last couple weeks."
"We hit more groundballs in the second half than any other team by a huge margin," Epstein said. "Our goal is to hit line drives and fly balls out of the ballpark - but hit line drives.

"...Something happened in our offense in the second half where we stopped walking, we stopped hitting home runs, we stopped hitting the ball in the air and we stopped being productive. Not being able to get 2 runs is really unacceptable and it sort of tells a story a little bit of the end of our season, too.

"We had those three games - Saturday, Monday and Tuesday - where if we win one of those games, we're still playing. In each of those games, we scored 1 run with a handful of hits. Unfortunately that was foretold a little bit by the nature of what happened to our offense in the second half.

"That's unacceptable. We have to learn from it and we have to get better. What's the cause of it? What are the contributing causes? We have some ideas, but that's why we're doing all these exit interviews. ... We just have to figure it out.

"I've never been part of something like this offensively and I never want to be again. We have to be an offensive force. We should be with the talent on our roster, but it's probably time to stop evaluating this in terms of talent and start evaluating in terms of production. We need to do everything we can to produce offensively."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 20, 2019, 06:19:25 pm
"I've never been part of something like this offensively and I never want to be again. We have to be an offensive force. We should be with the talent on our roster, but it's probably time to stop evaluating this in terms of talent and start evaluating in terms of production. We need to do everything we can to produce offensively."

I would argue that the "stop evaluating on talent and start evaluating on production" part is inherently a statement about more than just the last two months of the season. A player's talent level is fairly static...it doesn't just disappear for two months.

As I said a few days ago, everyone but a few people on this board came away from that press conference with the expectation that there would be changes to the offense this offseason. Even if it wasn't Harper or Machado, everyone expected the Cubs would add a McCutchen or Brantley or LeMahieu. Even Bleacher Nation--where the writers go out of their way to toe the company line and rarely say anything negative about the organization--had this response to the "talent-production" line:

Quote from: Bleacher Nation
Epstein continued by saying there simply needs to be more production than talent and that the Cubs are just not where they need to be with some individual players. Moreover, while development isn’t linear, he does expect certain players who do one thing at age 22 or 23 to improve as they turn 24, 25, and 26. But in several cases, things didn’t just get better, they got worse. “We have to get to the bottom of that.” My take? Expect changes to the roster.

Theo is a great communicator. So I find it hard to believe that the vast majority of media and fans came away with the message "there will be changes" when he meant the opposite. That's the more inexplicable part of the press conference and offseason--I can buy the "broken" clarification, but I don't see any way to interpret Theo as saying "we're going to run out the exact same team next year."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 20, 2019, 06:41:04 pm
Obviously, numerous individual Cub hitters had issues over the 2nd half of the season, but I'll suggest a couple items that I believe hurt the offense a lot as the 2nd half wore on:

* Bryant wasn't Bryant in the 2nd half.  Obviously.  And when a KEY guy is way off his offensive game, that often has a ripple effect in the lineup.  Hitting (or the lack thereof) is contagious.

* That brutal, unprecedented stretch of travel in August and, then, 42 games in 43 days or whatever it was to end the season.  Cubs were running on fumes those final few days of the season! 

Maybe Cub offense is a Harper or Machado short.  However, I suspect the 2019 Cub offense will more resemble the 1st half offense than the 2nd half offense. 

And that may or may not be enough - Cards are WAY better, Brewers may be better and the entire division will be TOUGHER!  It will be very tough getting in as a wild card from the NL Central in 2019!

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 20, 2019, 07:21:14 pm
Obviously, numerous individual Cub hitters had issues over the 2nd half of the season, but I'll suggest a couple items that I believe hurt the offense a lot as the 2nd half wore on:

* Bryant wasn't Bryant in the 2nd half.  Obviously.  And when a KEY guy is way off his offensive game, that often has a ripple effect in the lineup.  Hitting (or the lack thereof) is contagious.

* That brutal, unprecedented stretch of travel in August and, then, 42 games in 43 days or whatever it was to end the season.  Cubs were running on fumes those final few days of the season! 

Maybe Cub offense is a Harper or Machado short.  However, I suspect the 2019 Cub offense will more resemble the 1st half offense than the 2nd half offense. 

And that may or may not be enough - Cards are WAY better, Brewers may be better and the entire division will be TOUGHER!  It will be very tough getting in as a wild card from the NL Central in 2019!

 

Aside from Bryant, the other really major drop-off was by Contreras.  If one believes that 2016-17, and first half of 2018 (.818 OPS) was less characteristic of Contreras' ability than the last half of 2018, then it's one thing.  But if the second half of 2018 is viewed as an outlier (a much more reasonable interpretation, seems to me), whether based on his over-work behind the plate or the mixed signals associated with Chili Davis' approach (or something else), then a major improvement for 2019 seems a reasonable expectation.  Bryant and Contreras return to normal, alone, would constitute a major upgrade over the second half offense - even without any growth by guys like Almora and Happ (and/or a return to good graces and 2016/17 level performance by Russell).  The combined difference between first and second half of the 2018 season for Bryant and Contreras was about .350 points in OPS. That is not a small difference.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 20, 2019, 07:25:59 pm

Theo is a great communicator. So I find it hard to believe that the vast majority of media and fans came away with the message "there will be changes" when he meant the opposite. That's the more inexplicable part of the press conference and offseason--I can buy the "broken" clarification, but I don't see any way to interpret Theo as saying "we're going to run out the exact same team next year."

It's obvious what Theo meant.  It's just that his reality changed between the time he said it and the time he could act on it, and being the consummate pro he is, he's making the best of it now.

I get the "sell high" argument on Zobrist, honestly.  I just don't see how it makes sense to sell, period, if you'r trying to win this year (which we presumably still are).  We need more guys like him, not less. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on January 20, 2019, 08:07:02 pm
The other possibility, Deeg, is that Theo was working on about two hours of sleep before the "it's broken" presser and/or decided to give his hitters a MAJOR wake-up call...and it seems that he did!

It's very possible that things changed significantly for Theo between that October day and today...but I doubt he would want the draft pain of significantly exceeding the luxury tax...and I doubt Theo would trade Zo to bring in Harper unless Boras has to "settle" for a contract well below $300K (which is probably doubtful).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 20, 2019, 08:11:05 pm
Theo is 100% Nowacrat.  I can't see any Nowacrat logic in trading Zobrist.  Not happening. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 20, 2019, 08:19:57 pm
Heyward, Almora, Happ, Schwarber, Contreras, Russell were all much worse in the second half. They went from being above average wRC+ to below average.

By Sept/Oct everyone but Schwarber was worse. Schwarber, Rizzo, Murphy, Bryant and Baez where the only above average wRC+ guys. Murphy, Bryant and Baez were all 110 or below. The rest of the team was hitting like Darwin Barney or worse.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 20, 2019, 08:31:22 pm
It's obvious what Theo meant.  It's just that his reality changed between the time he said it and the time he could act on it, and being the consummate pro he is, he's making the best of it now.

Yeah, we agree on the timeline. Theo thought he had money to spend at the press conference. By the end of the World Series, he knew didn't have money to spend.

Quote
I get the "sell high" argument on Zobrist, honestly.  I just don't see how it makes sense to sell, period, if you'r trying to win this year (which we presumably still are).  We need more guys like him, not less. 

I'm torn on a Zobrist deal, so I get what you're thinking too. But I think there's probably a path where it makes sense. The bullpen looks like a bigger potential disaster than the lineup, so trading Zobrist to really reinforce the pen might be a good idea.

A couple weeks ago, the Giants were rumored to be in on LeMahieu while looking to deal Panik...maybe they just really liked LeMahieu, but it's conceivable that they want a 2B change. If that's the case, who knows...maybe a Zobrist for Tony Watson deal works for both teams? That gives the Cubs a reliable lefty to compliment Strop and Cishek, and it saves them $9 million ($10.5 million on the luxury tax if my math is correct).

$9 million probably gives the Cubs a shot at, say, Brad Brach and Martin Maldonado. Two relievers and a backup catcher (who prevents Joe from using Contreras too much) might help the Cubs more than Zobrist alone. Something like that series of deals makes sense...maybe.

(If you'd told me in early October that trading Zobrist to afford Watson, Brach, and Maldonado was a post I'd make this offseason, I would've thought you were crazy. What a disappointing offseason)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 20, 2019, 08:34:02 pm
Theo is 100% Nowacrat.  I can't see any Nowacrat logic in trading Zobrist.  Not happening. 

Depends on what you project for Zobrist in 2019. If the Cubs project him as more 2017 Zobrist than 2018 Zobrist, and they think they can get value that 2018 Zobrist would've gotten at the deadline, then it's a pretty smart move.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 20, 2019, 08:36:23 pm
First Half Cubs Nonpitchers
.276/.357/.444 wRC+ 116.

First in BA, OBP, wRC+, 4th in BB%, tied for 6th best K%, 5th in runs, 20th in HR, 5th in SLG

Second half Cubs
.256/.324/.402 wRC+ 95

BB% 16th, K% 16th worst, BA 14th, OBP 14th, SLG 25th, HR 24th, runs 19th

Sept/Oct
.244/.310/.375 wRC+ 84

They BB% was worse, K% was higher and only the Giants and Marlins hit less HR.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 20, 2019, 08:46:56 pm
As Ron mentioned, there are several guys whose 2nd-half performance was way below career normal, and who should be expected to become more productive.  Bryant obviously and Contreras. 

But don't underestimate Russell.  He's a career .704 OPS, he was .468 post-break.  Russell was either missing or horrific after the break (with the bat).  If you can get him back somewhere north of .650, somewhere north of OPS+ of 80, that would be a big upgrade relative to .468.  Even assuming that he'll still be a relatively poor liability hitter, he can still be way north on the anti-awful spectrum relative to what he was 2nd half.  And who knows, maybe he'll blossom and be fully average? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 20, 2019, 09:11:26 pm
As Ron mentioned, there are several guys whose 2nd-half performance was way below career normal, and who should be expected to become more productive.  Bryant obviously and Contreras. 

But don't underestimate Russell.  He's a career .704 OPS, he was .468 post-break.  Russell was either missing or horrific after the break (with the bat).  If you can get him back somewhere north of .650, somewhere north of OPS+ of 80, that would be a big upgrade relative to .468.  Even assuming that he'll still be a relatively poor liability hitter, he can still be way north on the anti-awful spectrum relative to what he was 2nd half.  And who knows, maybe he'll blossom and be fully average? 


I don't assume that Russell will be a factor, largely because I believe Theo is serious that Russell has to prove he's turned a real corner as a person.  But in 2016 his OPS was .738 and in 2017 (not a great year for him by any means) his OPS was .722.  And the first half of 2018, he had an OPS of .737.  It seems to me that even without offensive growth, he ought to be 70-80 points above his overall 2018 production of .657.  That would be another major improvement for the Cubs offense.

It's easy to see why Theo might think that the Cubs should be able to make the necessary offensive improvements over their second half 2018 "broken" offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 20, 2019, 09:31:22 pm
Agree, Ron, it's risky to "conclude" that getting a contributing, >.700 Russell will happen.  More risky than assuming that Bryant will be good.  But it's one of the key improvement possibilities for the team. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 20, 2019, 09:41:49 pm
Agree, Ron, it's risky to "conclude" that getting a contributing, >.700 Russell will happen.  More risky than assuming that Bryant will be good.  But it's one of the key improvement possibilities for the team. 

craig - Actually, I'm saying that a .730 OPS or so Russell is actually pretty likely, IF he spends the season with the Cubs. It's proving himself a changed or changing man that is the bigger question to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 20, 2019, 10:11:04 pm
Theo is 100% Nowacrat.  I can't see any Nowacrat logic in trading Zobrist.  Not happening. 
Especially as word is that he extended Hamels to get more veteran leadership.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 20, 2019, 10:16:57 pm
The flukiness of 2nd-half badness does not prove that the 1st-half excellence is normal or sustainable either.  Perhaps both halves were variable fluky and non-sustainable?  There was a group of significant above-probable 1st-halves?  So in some cases, the 2nd-half declines were to be expected.

For example, I'm nervous that none of the following are probable to produce in 2019 at a level comparable to their 1st-half-2018 levels?  Almora, Heyward, Bote, Russell, Zobrist, Baez. 

Perhaps the 2019 offensive reality will be much better than 2nd-half, but not as good as 1st half?  Who knows, that will be the fun of the season! 

The 1st/2nd-half composite last year was already good enough to win 95 games, in conjunction with what Maddon notes was statistically the #1 bullpen in the NL.  **IF** the bullpen ends 2019 as the best in the NL, I expect the offense to score enough runs to make the playoffs.     
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 20, 2019, 10:33:08 pm
craig - Actually, I'm saying that a .730 OPS or so Russell is actually pretty likely, IF he spends the season with the Cubs. It's proving himself a changed or changing man that is the bigger question to me.

Interesting.  I think his odds of surviving-the-season-without-getting-released-for-off-field-reasons are higher than his odds of hitting .730.

As far as that goes, I'd almost think a pre-season release would be more likely than a mid-season release.  If he makes opening day, I'd expect they'd give him the full season unless something additionally new and repulsive emerges. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 20, 2019, 11:57:13 pm
Yeah, we agree on the timeline. Theo thought he had money to spend at the press conference. By the end of the World Series, he knew didn't have money to spend.

I'm torn on a Zobrist deal, so I get what you're thinking too. But I think there's probably a path where it makes sense. The bullpen looks like a bigger potential disaster than the lineup, so trading Zobrist to really reinforce the pen might be a good idea.

A couple weeks ago, the Giants were rumored to be in on LeMahieu while looking to deal Panik...maybe they just really liked LeMahieu, but it's conceivable that they want a 2B change. If that's the case, who knows...maybe a Zobrist for Tony Watson deal works for both teams? That gives the Cubs a reliable lefty to compliment Strop and Cishek, and it saves them $9 million ($10.5 million on the luxury tax if my math is correct).

$9 million probably gives the Cubs a shot at, say, Brad Brach and Martin Maldonado. Two relievers and a backup catcher (who prevents Joe from using Contreras too much) might help the Cubs more than Zobrist alone. Something like that series of deals makes sense...maybe.

(If you'd told me in early October that trading Zobrist to afford Watson, Brach, and Maldonado was a post I'd make this offseason, I would've thought you were crazy. What a disappointing offseason)

I don't see Brach and Maldonado as any more than major-league minimum guys, TBH.  If we're so poor we have to trade Zobrist to clear salary to sign guys of that caliber again - what's the point?  At this point in his career Maldonado is a dime-a-dozen no-bat good glove backup catcher, and Brach is a borderline minor league contract LIAB.  I think Zobrist is more likely to help you win games than both of them put together.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 21, 2019, 06:59:08 pm
I realize some will not be persuaded that he meant it, but Theo has clarified or qualified his "broken" remark by saying he was only referring to how the offense performed in the second half, and that he does not consider it "permanently broken."

That is the way I took it at the time, and I have seen nothing since then to make me think differently.  The Cubs started off very well offensively, and then struggled greatly in the second half.  The struggles seem to be largely due to a substantial slump by Contreras and an injury to Bryant, and a combination of injuries and off season problems for Russell, all of which are not likely to be repeated in 2019.  With the exception of Zobrist, (and Heyward, who hasn't contributed offensively in years) all of the young players are on the upward portion of their career trajectory, and are more likely to improve than they are to receed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 21, 2019, 09:04:04 pm
I realize some will not be persuaded that he meant it, but Theo has clarified or qualified his "broken" remark by saying he was only referring to how the offense performed in the second half, and that he does not consider it "permanently broken."

Ron, of course we'll never know the truth of it.  But realistically, if - just for the sake of argument - he meant it as most people took it, and the ground shifted underneath hm budget-wise afterwards, would you expect him to admit that?  He'd have no choice but to do exactly what he's doing - try and change the narrative and act as if he knew all along.  He's way too smart to throw his owner under the bus.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 22, 2019, 05:04:37 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dxi7R8vWoAAIx18.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on January 22, 2019, 06:55:13 pm
Seems to have worked well for the Browns.  Consistent winners.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 22, 2019, 07:05:59 pm
Ernie Banks played shortstop on some of the worst teams ever to play Major League Baseball.  Most of those years, his team finished in last, or close to last place.  But I don't doubt that he would have been of some value to a great many teams of that day.  In his early years, he probably could have been the starting shortstop on many of the teams that won the World Series.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 22, 2019, 09:33:16 pm
Sharma with a hopeful, even optimistic report on Morrow.

https://theathletic.com/781043/2019/01/22/why-brandon-morrow-is-confident-he-can-bounce-back-from-injury-yet-again/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 22, 2019, 10:15:58 pm
Thanks, Ron!  That's the first detailed thing I've seen on MOrrow's surgery. 

I wonder if having gone through that experience, if the Cubs will use CT scans more regularly? 

*IF* Morrow was able to come back and be effective for most of the season, that would be a huge factor. 

There was also an interesting little note there referencing Cory Abbott's stuff "ticking up" last year, AND reference to working on change.  Would be fun to have one of their college picks "tick up" for a change instead of having their stuff tick down.  And to have one develop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 22, 2019, 10:47:13 pm
Michael Earsnt is doing some fun twitter prospects run downs, the one he did today was on Lange. The fastball ticked down, but and that effected the curve too. The good news is his change up was much better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 22, 2019, 11:26:47 pm
I have no doubt Morrow will recover from this injury, as he has with every other.  I likewise have no doubt he'll soon afterwards go down with a completely different injury, as he always has. That's the guy you paid for, no reason to expect it to change now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 23, 2019, 03:11:57 pm
Mooney has what I found to be an interesting piece on why and how (in a very general sense) the Cubs plan to adapt to Millennial players.

https://theathletic.com/779508/2019/01/22/how-joe-maddon-and-theo-epstein-are-translating-managing-millennials-for-dummies-into-the-cubs-way/

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 23, 2019, 05:19:32 pm
Padres beat writer's "educated guess" is that their opening day third baseman will be David Bote:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/23/uh-padres-beat-writers-educated-guess-on-their-starting-3b-this-year-david-bote/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 23, 2019, 05:37:03 pm
Padres beat writer's "educated guess" is that their opening day third baseman will be David Bote:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/23/uh-padres-beat-writers-educated-guess-on-their-starting-3b-this-year-david-bote/

The last paragraph of br's link

Quote
But if not, like I said originally, Bote offers excellent depth and some upside – plus minor league options – for almost no cost. There’s no reason to trade him unless you’re getting a quality return. From the Padres, ideally, that would be a very good bullpen arm like Kirby Yates or maybe Craig Stammen, or a younger arm that comes with a little more risk but a lot more team control. Or maybe the Cubs could pry away Austin Hedges as a defensively-minded catcher to pair with Willson Contreras?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 23, 2019, 06:50:32 pm
Padres have a lot of options that could fit with the Cubs. They have some really interesting lefty relievers and Giambrone might fit better as a utuility guy for the Cubs since he can play a more restectable SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 11:56:50 am
Cubs get a reliever.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Cubs in agreement with free-agent reliever Brad Brach, pending a physical, sources tell The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 12:00:19 pm
1 year, $3 million for Brach according to Heyman.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 12:07:11 pm
Brach also has a mutual option for 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 24, 2019, 12:11:37 pm
Not a bad flyer at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on January 24, 2019, 12:39:48 pm
I like Brach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 12:41:35 pm
Interesting.  He's been in the 60-80 inning bracket for each of last five seasons, so pretty durable. 

Fits the walk-a-lot profile that Theo seems to trend towards. 


Welcome aboard, Brad!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 24, 2019, 12:45:41 pm
I hope he can start striking people out again.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 12:56:10 pm
Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cubs add good arm to pen with Brad Brach signing. Pending physical. Told more pen additions will follow . Cubs one of five teams talking to  veteran reliever George Kontos . Kontos ( Chicago native) averaged 65 games 2015/17)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 01:21:24 pm
It looks like the Brach deal is more complex than originally reported. I'm assuming the additional guarantee is the buyout for the mutual option if the Cubs don't pick it up.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Brach deal with #Cubs is at least $4.35M for one year, sources tell The Athletic. Both player and club have options for 2020. Deal could grow to two years, $9.5M if Cubs exercise their option. Two-year guarantee would be less if team declines and Brach exercises his option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 24, 2019, 01:37:58 pm
Didn't someone here say Brach was very comparable to Strop?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 24, 2019, 01:40:56 pm
At the start of the offseason, @mlbtraderumors ranked Brad Brach the No. 41 free agent on the market and predicted he'd get $12 mil over 2 yrs (with MIL, ironically). Cubs got him for $3 mil plus reported team option for 2020.--Andracki
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 01:46:22 pm
Didn't someone here say Brach was very comparable to Strop?

On Brach's Baseball Reference page, his most similar pitcher (and third most similar through age 32) is Pedro Strop:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brachbr01.shtml#all_ss_other
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 24, 2019, 02:50:24 pm
Any scouting report on his stuff?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 24, 2019, 03:26:47 pm
Blech.  Would rather have had Madsen or Holland.

Now sign Ollie Perez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 24, 2019, 03:40:26 pm
We got Blech AND Brach?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 24, 2019, 04:34:51 pm
Brach is pronounced "Brock"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 24, 2019, 05:08:37 pm
Is Kontos really a rumor?  He’s a worse version of Kintzler and the AAA/AA pitching staffs are already packed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 05:59:36 pm
Now sign Ollie Perez.

I still say a trade with the Giants is the way to go if they can pull it off. Tony Watson is only making $2.5 million this year, and he'd be far better than any lefty on the free agent market. Probably costs too much in players, though.

Is Kontos really a rumor?  He’s a worse version of Kintzler and the AAA/AA pitching staffs are already packed.

Well, it was a Levine rumor...so take that for what it's worth.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 24, 2019, 06:14:48 pm
I still say a trade with the Giants is the way to go if they can pull it off. Tony Watson is only making $2.5 million this year, and he'd be far better than any lefty on the free agent market. Probably costs too much in players, though.

Well, it was a Levine rumor...so take that for what it's worth.

Perez was really good last year and all he’d cost is money, and not that much. Too bad we seem not to have any of that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 24, 2019, 06:35:48 pm
Perez was really good last year and all he’d cost is money, and not that much. Too bad we seem not to have any of that.

It seems we have 4.25 million of it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 24, 2019, 07:23:04 pm
Mooney on Brach and the Cubs.


https://theathletic.com/784791/2019/01/24/how-brad-brach-fits-into-the-cubs-plans-for-2019/

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on January 24, 2019, 07:25:19 pm
We still have roster crunch issues...

Morrow, Strop, Cishek, Edwards, Brach, Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood, Montgomery

Cutting any of these guys outright won't be cheap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 24, 2019, 07:37:26 pm
Jon Greenberg has a very interesting interview with Theo on The Athletic.  I will post a few extended quotes shortly.

https://theathletic.com/784112/2019/01/24/i-think-this-is-a-definitional-year-in-a-lot-of-ways-qa-with-theo-epstein-on-the-2019-cubs-the-state-of-journalism-and-kicking-fgs/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 24, 2019, 07:38:38 pm
Theo on his attitude and approach toward the coming season:


What’s your level of earnestness right now? If 10 is the day of Game 7 of the World Series, when I heard you were really confident before the game, and zero would be last year toward the end, where are you at now?
(Laughs) As far as my optimism toward the team? There’s always stuff. I do believe in this group. Talking specifically about the position player group, because so much of the angst has been sort of directed at those guys, and for good reason — because of the way we hit in the second half — but I’ve always really believed in this group and by the time they all hit their strides and their primes we’re going to be a dominant offense. And that’s the core of this team and that’s how we built this organization around these group of guys. So when I sit there and say I think we’re really going to learn from last year and the offense isn’t going to be permanently broken or damaged, I think we’re going to see a lot of guys emerge and continue to grow and put it all together, I fully believe that.
But I’m open about some concerns. Obviously on paper the ‘pen isn’t as fully formed as it normally is for us at this point of the time of year, so it’s not without our concerns. You always have to manage the message. In the winter, after the season, you can say some things that are pointed and true. As you move closer to the season, you have to just be smart about the way you present things. You don’t want to lie or hide the ball at all, but you also want to present the positive, because the messages get relayed out there to players and you’re moving into a more competitive mindset where you’re focused on togetherness and hard work. You’re going to be sort of hyper-focused on areas of weakness and try to fix them behind the scenes, but you want everyone to feel good about things.


This offseason, I think about narratives and themes and the way things progress naturally, how a team progresses. What do you see it as now? In 2016, it was building a champion right?

Yeah.
And then it was keeping it going. What is it now?
For me, it’s that we have something to prove, right? I think this, again, if you look at the post-2016 Cubs, we haven’t fully realized our potential yet. We’ve sort of underachieved a bit since the World Series and we want to sort of get back and establish ourselves as one of the elite dominant teams in October and try to win multiple championships. We definitely don’t want the end of 2018 to be anything but a blip based on how we perform going forward and what becomes of the rest of this window and beyond.
That can either be sort of a definitional moment, the sort of a counter to the World Series — “Here’s what happened to the post-World Series Cubs” — or it can be a blip in the long run of dominance. And so, we get to, through our play, control how that narrative rolls out. And I think we know the difference between being really, really proud of how we play and how we go about our business, top to bottom, vs. not being quite as proud. Such as things at the very end of last year.
There’s nothing better than putting the work in the right way and being really, really proud of something. Sometimes you get the results that match and sometimes you don’t. That’s an infinitely better feeling than when there’s some compromises and you’re not quite as proud as everything going on around here. That’s kind of the feeling we had at the end of last year. And that’s miserable. I went over this at the convention, but it’s not just bullshit sort of buzzword speak. We had to be honest about what happened, we have to take accountability for it and we all have some adjustments to make. Now we have to go perform with a lot of urgency. That’s how I’m viewing our actual internal narrative with what’s going in this organization right now.
Do you feel a countdown, like a clock? We talk about the window, that’s the great metaphor we use. Do you feel that window with the way contracts are set up?
Absolutely. Again, I think this is a definitional year in a lot of ways. If we perform really well, and this core becomes sort of fully realized, then we’re really positioned for the next several years and can sort of think about intelligent ways to affect a transition while staying on top. If we underperform, then we’re looking at, our starting staff mainly, we’re looking at a year-plus of control left. Position players, the end of this year will be two years left. And it could go in a lot of different directions. And obviously, if we underperform this year, some change will be not just desired, but needed. So I think it’s a really important year for us to feel that urgency because it’s time to perform.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 07:38:48 pm
Pitchers 13
   5 starters
   8 relievers:  Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Montomery, Blach (5 locks)  Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood (3 bubbly guys)
   DL:  Morrow (for a while)
   Next man up:  Rosario, Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay, guys released from other teams 40-man rosters

Not sure about signing more relievers.  I'm a huge believer that you want and need to be really deep in capable relievers.  I don't want Maddon killing the limited number of decent/good ones (Cishek?).  But there isn't really room for more guaranteed contracts, unless management honestly wants to go into camp fully planning to release some? 

Maddon likes 13 pitchers, 12 players.  With Russell suspended, 12 players is exactly where they should open.  (Starting 2B and 4 subs from Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote, Caratini) 

So, right now, the staff would be set with 13 pitchers.  That would mean no new injuries (beyond Morrow); no young options guys making the April roster; just the two lefty relievers (MM and Duensing); and all three bubbly guys making it (Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler.) 

Morrow could then replace either a sore arm or the worst of the bubbles. 

I'd think they'd be pretty interested in adding non-roster, non-guaranteed guys. 

Personally I feel like the bubbly guys are vulnerable enough that I'd have no reluctance to sign another guaranteed contract, and go into camp knowing you've got to release a guarantee (in the event of no DL). I think the bubbles are risky enough that I'd be hesitant to count on having all three useful contributors; I almost feel like it would be smarter to pay the price for one more guy, and let the worst of the three bubbles go away, with camp being a place to determine which. 

Is it still a given that they won't be able to send Chatwood to Iowa to get work, get cleaned up, to get confident, and to perhaps pitch enough innings to still be an option for rotation?  Or it is wise to assume that you can't retain him without keeping him on the roster, and that the Cubs won't consider releasing him? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 24, 2019, 07:43:34 pm
Theo with more specifics about his approach to Addison Russell's situation with the Cubs.


You’ve talked about the Addison Russell situation a lot (https://theathletic.com/776079/2019/01/18/theo-epsteins-candid-assessment-of-addison-russells-future-with-the-cubs-it-may-not-work-and-if-it-doesnt-we-will-move-on-instantaneously/), but have you learned about how, as a company, you have to deal with domestic violence?

I’ve learned on a lot of different levels. On one level, I’ve probably talked to half-a-dozen domestic violence experts. I’ve learned a ton about the problem overall and how to take steps as an organization from talking to them.

I’ve learned, this surprised me, that a lot of them look at actual domestic violence episodes as a symptom, not the root cause. That there are other root causes that are even harder to address. But that’s extremely important to address as a society.

And I learned that domestic violence isn’t always sort of a clear-cut thing. That there are patterns of behavior that you might not ordinarily think of as being obvious abuse that are and their totality is just as damaging as what you would think of as assault or classic domestic violence. Yeah, I’ve learned a lot about the challenges of a really nuanced issue in a big organization that’s public-facing and realizing that there’s no way to sort of please everybody. So your focus has to be on the victim and sort of an outcome that represents progress in as many elements of the situation as possible. That’s what we’ve tried to do.

You’re never going to feel you’re doing the right thing, no matter what. The path we’ve chosen, I have a number of people that I lean on that I think have really strong moral compasses to bounce stuff off of, who I really value their opinions in my personal life. So I talk to them about things like this. Half of them think we’re absolutely doing the right thing and are supportive and encouraging. And half of them think we’re doing the wrong thing. That’s just how it is for the people I trust and lean on, and obviously it’s going to be just as divisive anywhere. There’s no easy answer. But I think the only thing we can all agree on is it’s a meaningful and important positive to make some actual progress on prevention, so if we, as an organization, put the work in necessary to be the safest possible workplace, the healthiest possible workplace, the workplace with the highest standards of detection and intervention and awareness, so domestic violence has the smallest chance of happening here, that’s a positive. If we can support DV groups that are doing that work on a broader scale in society, that’s a positive thing too. If we can support the victim and help her during a difficult time, that’s a positive too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 07:45:36 pm
We still have roster crunch issues...

Morrow, Strop, Cishek, Edwards, Brach, Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood, Montgomery

Cutting any of these guys outright won't be cheap.

Morrow is hurt. He’s supposed to be ready by May or so, but you never know with someone as injury prone as him.

Edwards was bad after his injury last year. Wouldn’t be surprising if he broke down.

Montgomery is in the rotation if anyone enters the season hurt, which is always probably a 50/50 possibility.

Duensing is making what, $3 million? I don’t think they’d have any problem cutting him if they needed the roster spot. Kintzler at $5 million isn’t that much of a hit either.

I don’t see a crunch. I think it’s more likely that their relief group is too thin right now. They need at least one more.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 07:54:35 pm
MM and Duensing as only two lefties.  I'm not sure either are exactly Maddon-favorites as big-moment guys. 

I wonder if Hoyer is going to add another lefty still?  Or if they're just going to wait and spend which prospect emerges best for the best mid-season lefty they can find? 

This is probably fantasy; but I wonder whether it might not be slightly intentional to NOT give Maddon LH volume?  *IF* upper management thinks the mid-inning switches are counterproductive and wear out the bullpen, maybe going with only two will induce Maddon to allow RH relievers to face more LH bats and to pitch more full innings?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 24, 2019, 07:55:16 pm
Pitchers 13
   5 starters
   8 relievers:  Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Montomery, Blach (5 locks)  Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood (3 bubbly guys)
   DL:  Morrow (for a while)
   Next man up:  Rosario, Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay, guys released from other teams 40-man rosters

Not sure about signing more relievers.  I'm a huge believer that you want and need to be really deep in capable relievers.  I don't want Maddon killing the limited number of decent/good ones (Cishek?).  But there isn't really room for more guaranteed contracts, unless management honestly wants to go into camp fully planning to release some? 

Maddon likes 13 pitchers, 12 players.  With Russell suspended, 12 players is exactly where they should open.  (Starting 2B and 4 subs from Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote, Caratini) 

So, right now, the staff would be set with 13 pitchers.  That would mean no new injuries (beyond Morrow); no young options guys making the April roster; just the two lefty relievers (MM and Duensing); and all three bubbly guys making it (Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler.) 

Morrow could then replace either a sore arm or the worst of the bubbles. 

I'd think they'd be pretty interested in adding non-roster, non-guaranteed guys. 

Personally I feel like the bubbly guys are vulnerable enough that I'd have no reluctance to sign another guaranteed contract, and go into camp knowing you've got to release a guarantee (in the event of no DL). I think the bubbles are risky enough that I'd be hesitant to count on having all three useful contributors; I almost feel like it would be smarter to pay the price for one more guy, and let the worst of the three bubbles go away, with camp being a place to determine which. 

Is it still a given that they won't be able to send Chatwood to Iowa to get work, get cleaned up, to get confident, and to perhaps pitch enough innings to still be an option for rotation?  Or it is wise to assume that you can't retain him without keeping him on the roster, and that the Cubs won't consider releasing him? 

Going into the season with +1 on relievers that don’t have options limits your ability to utilize the depth guys at Iowa. Especially since I don’t think you can count on any contributions from at least 3 of them (Kintzler, Chatwood or Duensing). The ideal pen would bring in another lefty and remove 2 of the three above which would leave with 1 option guy to keep somebody fresh and then Marrow can replace an injury.

Having 3 really questionable guys in the pen is going to lead to Madden abusing the other 5 and unless the rotation is going deep into games that will burn them out.

Chatwood could only go to Iowa if he agreed to it. He would have to clear waivers, which isn’t the problem. He’d be a free agent any team could take a prorated minimal salary that they could fix him. Traveling in the majors is going to be a lot nicer than taking a bus from Des Moines to Omaha.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on January 24, 2019, 07:58:00 pm
I wonder what Justin Wilson will end up costing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 08:02:14 pm
Not sure on Chatwood, Blue.  Not sure being a failure is what a lot of us guys love.  If he's an end-of-the-pen guy who is never getting used, and who feels like he's not part of the team, and who feels like he just can't get the feeling back, I'm not sure it's inconceivable that every competitive bone in his body might want to be pitching regularly and getting the feeling back.  So maybe there's a chance he'd very much be on board with getting 30+ innings in at Iowa, and see if he can't get locked back in?  I'd certainly consider that if I was in his shoes. 

May also be that he's felt the Cubs coaching has been terrible, and that he'd like nothing better than to get away from this organization and get somewhere else who knows how to coach pitchers.  So perhaps he'd love nothing better than to have the Cubs release him and get away from their failed adjustments? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 24, 2019, 08:11:45 pm
I’m still surprised there isn’t someone out there who is willing to pay somewhere between half and two thirds of Chatwood’s remaining contract to get him for free in a trade. He was signed to a $38 million contract a year ago based on potential—he’d never been particularly good. Seems like some team who was interested last year and currently has money to spend should be interested in taking on the same high upside risk for something like $15 million this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 24, 2019, 08:57:10 pm
I’m still surprised there isn’t someone out there who is willing to pay somewhere between half and two thirds of Chatwood’s remaining contract to get him for free in a trade. He was signed to a $38 million contract a year ago based on potential—he’d never been particularly good. Seems like some team who was interested last year and currently has money to spend should be interested in taking on the same high upside risk for something like $15 million this offseason.

Keep in mind that Chatwood is basically unusable unless he gets out of this Steve Blass-type disease he had in 2018.

Remarkable that a pitcher can lead the league in walks throwing barely over 100 IP. He pitched less than 10 IP after July. He was pretty much shut down at that point.

Think that to trade him would have to swap him for an equally bad contract, taking back a guy other club has no role for at all in that club’s circumstances.

Guessing that Chatwood is going to have to show something really different in spring training, that is, being a normal guy with just poor control, to break camp with the club. Otherwise, think will figure out a way to DL him—-and then get a few weeks of minors rehab and see what they have.

Not writing him off, but think his presence in no way should be a significant factor in decision to add another good reliever. Guessing more likely thru trade than free agency, assuming it’s somebody good or a promising younger guy. More likely a lefty, obviously, if there’s a move to be made.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 24, 2019, 09:06:14 pm
Overall thinness coupled with Joe’s tendency to rented mule the guys he trusts is a big issue, coupled with only Monty (not a lefty specialist and the 6th starter) and the awful except for ‘17 Duensing as the only lefties are big problems.  If Cishek isn’t already broken due to last year’s abuse his arm is going to fall off by Memorial Day.

If indeed Theo pulls a trade, lefty bullpen help has to be his top priority, followed by general bullpen help. I actually would consider Wilson as a buy low option if there were any reason to expect we’re still buying players, since all the lefties you really want are long off the board except for arguably Perez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 09:06:42 pm
reb, not sure I see the trade option?  Yes, maybe you trade Happ for somebody with some non-trivial potential, and then go and sign a FA utility guy, I guess.  But we've got nobody in the minors to trade for anybody very good and young and promising.  And any minor-leaguers that we have to trade are pitchers, and young pitchers with promise are exactly what Cubs want/need to produce themselves, so maybe not anxious to trade your best pitching prospects. 

I think they probably want to just go with the FA route for any pickups. 

Obviously FA costs money, which may be in short supply. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 09:09:16 pm
Interesting that Brach's 2-year deal calls for $3 this year and $6.5 next year.  With the $1.35 buyout option.  Think Theo might see some shifts in finances; maybe if they win the WS or something the revenue will push up the payroll possibilities.  But that seems an unusually Nowacrat pay structure. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 09:16:35 pm
I wonder if Wilson would prefer to come back, $$ being competitive?  Or if he'd really like to get away from Maddon and the Cubs coaching and respect/disrespect for him? 

Sometimes the comfort of staying home is pretty appealing, so maybe he'd sign a fairly reasonable deal to come back and be part of another playoff run?  But could also see wanting to go somewhere where he might get a larger role, or at least be honeymooned and promised such, whether or not it actually happens or not?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 24, 2019, 09:22:24 pm
reb, not sure I see the trade option?  Yes, maybe you trade Happ for somebody with some non-trivial potential, and then go and sign a FA utility guy, I guess.  But we've got nobody in the minors to trade for anybody very good and young and promising.  And any minor-leaguers that we have to trade are pitchers, and young pitchers with promise are exactly what Cubs want/need to produce themselves, so maybe not anxious to trade your best pitching prospects. 

I think they probably want to just go with the FA route for any pickups. 

Obviously FA costs money, which may be in short supply. 

Thinking Bote, for one, as there were rumors out there few days ago regarding Padres and, as CBJ noted, they still have couple of interesting lefties..among other guys. Also, think Cubs have some marketable prospects, sure, you’d rather keep guys like that but if can get somebody with several years of control, it’s more palatable. There is a need here now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 24, 2019, 09:24:29 pm
I'd take Kirby Yates.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 24, 2019, 09:36:17 pm
Bote to the Padres seems like the most realistic option. There’s ample history there and they have a ton of arms. Bote is a nice player but still a spare part and probably never going to be an above-average regular.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 24, 2019, 11:47:53 pm
Good points, I'd forgotten about him.  This might be a sell-high with him, too.  Not sure how much hitting he'll be able to do going forward. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 25, 2019, 07:14:34 am
Cubs brought in Aaron Sele into the org. He had been a special assignment scout for the Marlins and had previously worked with the Dodgers as a scout and in player development.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 25, 2019, 04:53:40 pm
Rickett's family completed or bought the final 5% of the Cubs from the Tribune.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 25, 2019, 05:14:18 pm
The Cubs have also brought in a couple of high-minors relievers that they might think more highly of than we do.  Both Clarken and Rowen Wijk are currently on the 40 man roster, and have 2 options left.  But I suspect that the Cubs will still bring in another Brach-level reliever as added insurance.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 05:22:17 pm
Norwood and Maples both have a shot to be better than average too right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 25, 2019, 05:39:01 pm
Rickett's family completed or bought the final 5% of the Cubs from the Tribune.
How much was that in $$$?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 05:57:49 pm
125 million.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 25, 2019, 06:05:46 pm
125 million.
Ah.  4 years worth of Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 25, 2019, 06:16:59 pm
If 5% = $125 million, 100% comes to $2,500,000,000.00.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 06:18:00 pm
I didnt make it up. Ill find the link.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 25, 2019, 06:19:32 pm
I'm not saying your numbers are wrong.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 06:21:08 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/25/ricketts-family-purchases-the-final-5-of-the-chicago-cubs-from-the-tribune-company/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 25, 2019, 06:21:34 pm
From a 2013 article

The Chicago Cubs franchise is now worth $2.2 billion, or two and a half times what the Ricketts family paid just seven years ago for the team, Wrigley Field and a stake in Comcast SportsNet Chicago, according to an annual report by Forbes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 25, 2019, 06:33:19 pm
Just for kicks...  What about something like Contreras, Bote and Chatwood to the Padres for Hedges, Yates and another bullpen arm?  Who says no?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 06:37:22 pm
Me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2019, 06:40:20 pm
I think the Cubs say no, Hedges is a pretty bad hitter. I don't think Yates has a long enough track record or the amount of control left to offset the downgrade on offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 25, 2019, 06:44:50 pm
I think the Cubs say no, Hedges is a pretty bad hitter. I don't think Yates has a long enough track record or the amount of control left to offset the downgrade on offense.

Hedges has 32 HR in 690 ABs in effectively his first two seasons, he's hardly a huge offensive liability as a catcher.  He's also a huge defensive upgrade given his framing, and has the potential to improve as a hitter.  Headed into his age 26 season.  Not saying it's a slam-dunk, but I think it would be worth considering, especially if we could turn around and do something useful with the Chatwood money.  If you believe in Amaya especially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 25, 2019, 06:58:07 pm
Offseason is saved:

Quote
Bruce Levine

 
@MLBBruceLevine
 5m5 minutes ago
More
Chicago Cubs and reliever George Kontos in agreement on minor league deal. Kontos went to Driveline a Metrics / data driven pitching rehab destination . Kontos picked up 3 MPH while working there .
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 07:00:16 pm
Deeg beat me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 25, 2019, 07:05:03 pm
Oh my gosh the Cubs signed a minor league free agent the horror. At least he picked up some velocity at Driveline.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2019, 07:06:13 pm
Well, I've been on record all along that the offense has issues. I think Contreras is clearly likely to be a better hitter (and is easily the Cubs' best hope for significant internal improvement over last year other than Bryant being healthy), so it would definitely be hard to sell me on the deal.

Hedges has shown some power in his career so far, but he's also a .210/.258/.378 career hitter. Even if you drop off the first two partial seasons in 2015-16, he's a .222/.271/.412 hitter. A .271 OBP is a major liability. He also has almost a 30% strikeout rate, so he's probably always going to be a low average hitter.

It sounds like there's a real chance the Padres are targeting Realmuto pretty heavily, though, so I doubt that deal would be something the Padres were interested in.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2019, 07:08:59 pm
Kontos averaged 89.6 mph on his fastball last year, so adding 3 mph gets him up to around MLB average (which I would assume is well below average for a reliever). Eh, maybe he'll see the majors at some point this year, but hopefully they're still looking to add significantly more than him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 07:09:49 pm
Kontos gave up Travis Wood's 2016 NLDS HR.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 25, 2019, 07:15:17 pm
Well, I've been on record all along that the offense has issues. I think Contreras is clearly likely to be a better hitter (and is easily the Cubs' best hope for significant internal improvement over last year other than Bryant being healthy), so it would definitely be hard to sell me on the deal.

Hedges has shown some power in his career so far, but he's also a .210/.258/.378 career hitter. Even if you drop off the first two partial seasons in 2015-16, he's a .222/.271/.412 hitter. A .271 OBP is a major liability. He also has almost a 30% strikeout rate, so he's probably always going to be a low average hitter.

It sounds like there's a real chance the Padres are targeting Realmuto pretty heavily, though, so I doubt that deal would be something the Padres were interested in.

There's not even a rumor this is on the table so it's just for fun, but obviously would be contingent on the Padres not getting Realmuto.  If the Padres did get Realmuto that would presumably make Hedges even more available, and I'd love to get him even if it weren't a deal involving Contreras.  I think we undersell how much value a top-5 defensive catcher can bring to the table, and having Hedges around would allow you to use Contreras substantially in the OF (where how he frames the balls he catches won't kill you).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 07:30:30 pm
How he frames it at catcher wont kill you either especially if he hits like we expect him to.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 25, 2019, 07:31:33 pm
Koontos throws mostly sinkers so if he added 3 MPH that gets him pretty close to 93. According to pitch info the average sinker in the bullpen was 93.1. So it makes him midly more interesting as his secondaries should tick up too.

Looking at his spin rates for the Yankees on his curve and cutter he would have been top 50 in the MLB for both and with more velocity the spin rates could tick up too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2019, 07:32:06 pm
If there was a Realmuto trade, I bet Hedges would go back to the Marlins. There have been rumors all along that they want to get at least some MLB talent in the deal, with a catcher being one of the possibilities they were pursuing.

I'd be all on board with getting Hedges to back up Contreras and maybe even play a little more often than a typical backup (give Willson some days in the OF or at 1B). Backup catcher is a real need for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 25, 2019, 07:39:34 pm
Switch hitting Victor Caratini and his minor league .290 avg and 800 ops disagrees with you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 25, 2019, 07:46:05 pm
Theo with more specifics about his approach to Addison Russell's situation with the Cubs.

I’ve learned on a lot of different levels. On one level, I’ve probably talked to half-a-dozen domestic violence experts. I’ve learned a ton about the problem overall and how to take steps as an organization from talking to them....

And I learned that domestic violence....

It appears from the entirety of his comments that most likely Theo has less learned about domestic violence than he has been indoctrinated by those most often found pushing the issue.  I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2019, 08:31:32 pm
Switch hitting Victor Caratini and his minor league .290 avg and 800 ops disagrees with you.

No matter how rose colored your glasses are, I think there are two huge holes on the roster as it is right now. Backup catcher is one of those. Caratini was a bad hitter last year (.232/.293/.304). He's a worse framer than Contreras, and doesn't have the athleticism or throwing arm to offset the bad framing like Contreras does. And maybe most importantly, Maddon clearly has no faith in him. That means Maddon will overuse Contreras again this year if Caratini is the backup, and he'll be gassed again by August.

The other huge hole is late inning LH relief, of course. Montgomery might have to start, and would likely be most valuable in a long relief role. Ideally, you don't want a guy who gives up as much contact as him as the guy who comes in to get Harper, Yelich, Votto, or Freeman with the game on the line in the 8th or 9th. Rosario and Duensing don't fill that role either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 25, 2019, 08:38:03 pm
Looking at some of the reporting it looks like the Ricketts had an option to buy the 5% stake and also a right of first refusal. So the 5% purchase price has likely based off the original purchase price of the team.  The Ricketts can also eliminate the large debt the bad with purchasing the Cubs now and that could free up $30 million in interest payments plus $15 million in spending restrictions due to the CBA.

Sam Zell should go down as one of the worst tax avoiders in the history of the US. His tax avoidance strategies led to a $400 million tax bill for the Tribune. If he had avoided all the gimmicks it would have been zero.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 26, 2019, 07:07:15 am
I’d very much like Hedges, but he might be really pricey in a trade.

Another lefty would be ideal as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on January 26, 2019, 07:11:27 am
Caratini was a bad hitter last year (.232/.293/.304). He's a worse framer than Contreras, and doesn't have the athleticism or throwing arm to offset the bad framing like Contreras does. And maybe most importantly, Maddon clearly has no faith in him. That means Maddon will overuse Contreras again this year if Caratini is the backup, and he'll be gassed again by August.

Its amazing that a manager like Maddon lacks the insight and understand of the game we all have and would undoubtedly repeat his mishandling of playing time for Contreras instead of resting him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 26, 2019, 09:07:06 am
Oh my gosh the Cubs signed a minor league free agent the horror. At least he picked up some velocity at Driveline.

Quote
dabynsky
dabynsky
@dabynsky
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Can't wait for more of the incredulous "why are people upset at this move" take when people rightfully complain that this represents the virtual entirety of the Cubs off-season following their worst result since entering their contention window.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 26, 2019, 09:27:53 am
Cubs have signed Junichi Tazawa to a minor league deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 26, 2019, 11:46:33 am
Here is the thing Deeg. Signing a minor league free agent does zero to prevent the Cubs from improving the major league team. They aren’t related at all. People complaining about minor league signings are stupid.

If you want to complain that the Cubs off season is bringing back Hamels, Quintana, Descalso and Brach. Go right ahead. Nobody is stopping you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 26, 2019, 04:39:09 pm
Optimistic take on Brad Brach based on his second half improvement:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/01/25/new-cubs-reliever-brad-brach-was-awesome-before-2018-and-also-in-the-second-half-of-2018/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 26, 2019, 09:27:11 pm
I didn’t even realize Tazawa was still pitching.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 26, 2019, 11:24:18 pm
I didn’t even realize Tazawa was still pitching.

Irony intentional or unintentional?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on January 28, 2019, 08:08:13 am
March 28, 2019 - Two months from today - The Cubs open the regular season in Texas
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on January 28, 2019, 09:36:41 am
Tampa Bay beat writer Marc Tompkin got some attention for this note in his column yesterday (though it sounds like it's mostly (completely?) speculation):

If the Rays did want to add another proven bat, Ben Zobrist could be an intriguing, and quite popular, option in trade from the Cubs.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/2019/01/26/rays-tales-and-the-teams-first-hall-of-famer-will-be/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 28, 2019, 10:01:39 am
Some rumors floating around that the Cubs could bump the payroll to $240 million for Machado/Harper, so to fit them in a little money would have to be trimmed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on January 28, 2019, 10:02:16 am
Where are you hearing/seeing that, CBJ?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 28, 2019, 10:06:28 am
No where that will make Reb happy.  It fits with trading Zobrist though, because he'd the only bigger contract that would be easy to move.

 


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 28, 2019, 12:43:51 pm
Irony intentional or unintentional?

Probably a little bit of both, haha.

I hadn't really heard too much from him the last couple of years.  I guess that's what happens when you pitch in Miami and not pitch all that great.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 30, 2019, 02:23:01 am
Christian Bergman signed a minor league contract with the Cubs, according to Baseball America’s transaction list. Bergman is 11-15 with a 5.59 ERA in 71 games with the Rockies (2014-16) and Mariners (2018).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on January 30, 2019, 02:23:47 am
Cubs also have interest in Drew Storen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 30, 2019, 07:22:20 am
I'm getting LIAB flashbacks to an earlier era.  Anyone else?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 30, 2019, 08:27:48 am
Cubs also have interest in Drew Storen.

Think he had his TJ in maybe September or October of 2017, so should be well beyond 12 months when the season starts. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 30, 2019, 03:32:59 pm
ROFL.  Storen had one lucky year where his ERA vastly outperformed his peripherals, and was thoroughly mediocre for the rest of it.  Before getting hurt.  He's more like that mild electric shock you get petting the cat when the heat has been on all night-in-a-bottle.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 30, 2019, 03:43:50 pm
Storen had several very good seasons. Even his best ERA season, his FIP was still very good (2.71). Career FIP almost identical to career ERA. Post-season: different story. Let’s not go there.

Would not get bent out of shape about a potential minor league contract/spring training invite guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on January 30, 2019, 03:50:56 pm
Would not get bent out of shape about a potential minor league contract/spring training invite guy.

I don't know, he'd have the second highest career WAR of anyone we've brought in this offseason.  If anything, seems like that'd be cause for celebration!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 30, 2019, 04:18:17 pm
Storen was throwing 91 last time around, down from 95 in his heyday.  Presumably, a product of being hurt.

Who knows.  Sometimes a guy can rest for a long stretch and he's a new man.  Storen is still only 31. 

Not a big deal, one way or the other. Why not?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on January 30, 2019, 04:52:21 pm
Why are you commenting on a unsourced rumor?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 30, 2019, 05:57:39 pm
Why are you commenting on a unsourced rumor?

I consider The Chicago Tribune a legit journalist source. Had a story this week about Cubs and Storen.

And, by the way, when are you going to address the questions directed to you about your argument that Willie Mays would be Albert Almora, etc?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 30, 2019, 06:12:32 pm
Agree with reb and JR, I like signing guys to minor-league deals.  No risk, sometimes you get lucky.  Storen was variably capable/solid for 6 straight years (FIP ranging 2.4-3.62) before being no good since 2016.  Not likely, but no harm in taking a look.  Heh heh, Chatwood is probably even less likely.  Obviously if Storen needs to settle for a minor-league deal, I don't see why he'd particularly prefer doing that with Cubs than somebody else; maybe somebody with a better reputation for helping pitchers than the Cubs may have? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 30, 2019, 06:46:04 pm
Agree with reb and JR, I like signing guys to minor-league deals.  No risk, sometimes you get lucky.  Storen was variably capable/solid for 6 straight years (FIP ranging 2.4-3.62) before being no good since 2016.  Not likely, but no harm in taking a look.  Heh heh, Chatwood is probably even less likely.  Obviously if Storen needs to settle for a minor-league deal, I don't see why he'd particularly prefer doing that with Cubs than somebody else; maybe somebody with a better reputation for helping pitchers than the Cubs may have? 

Chatwood has been good a lot more recently than Storen and isn't coming off major surgery.  Both are long shots but I'd certainly put better odds on Chatwood.

As for why Storen would prefer the Cubs, maybe he'd see it as a potentially good team with a potentially bad bullpen, and thus a good opportunity.  Of course this is also a guy who talked his way out of Washington when he lost the closer's job, so who knows what his priorities are.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 30, 2019, 09:11:30 pm
Chatwood has been good a lot more recently than Storen and isn't coming off major surgery. 

When was Chatwood good?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 30, 2019, 09:16:12 pm
He threw four straight strikes once in Little League.


But that was just a rumor.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 30, 2019, 09:21:07 pm
When was Chatwood good?

He was very good in 2016-7 when you factor in half his starts being in Denver.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 30, 2019, 09:58:51 pm
In the two seasons where Chatwood's walk-rate was under 4.5 BB/9, in 2016 and 2013, he was pretty good.  The other years, when his BB/9 was in the 4.5-5 range, he wasn't good, with ERA+ in the 79-108 range.  Last year his BB/9 was 8.2, much worse than any previous year. 

I can see two sides to this: 
1.  Positive:  His 8.2 was well out of line with his normal 4.7  BB/9 rate. So, regression-to-the-mean could help.  Career he's an ERA+ = 102 guy, so it's possible you might get regression to the mean and get average work. 
2.  Negative:  His 8.2 is so far out of line from his previous badness, that now he's got the yips.  Yips guys don't come back.   

I don't really know what to think about what happened to him last year to get so much worse? 
1.  He's always been on the edge of being unusably wild; it didn't take much to fall beyond the edge?
2.  Chatwood and the Cubs had the story that away from Coors, he'd be much better.  Part of that story was that curve doesn't curve well in Coors, so that with Cubs he'd be able to throw his deadly curve.  I loved the notion at the time.  But I wonder whether trying to throw more curves, a super hard pitch to locate, pushed him over the edge? 
3.  Cubs coaches had ideas and tinkered with his delivery; obviously those tinkerings didn't help.  Maybe those pushed him over the edge? 
4.  Getting the yips is probably not a cause-and-effect logic thing.  He got them, for no "pass-the-blame" reason, and it's all over? 

I can't wait to read the spring-training articles in which the origins of his decline are discussed and explained, and in which Chatwood and the new pitching coach optimistically talk about how the new spring and this-or-that adjustment is going to make him effective. 

Personally, I think there are kind of a lot of good-stuff wildmen in relief.  You can't be going 8.2 BB/9 even in relief.  But I kinda feel like if he could magically get back under 5 BB/9, relief might be a better fit for him?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 30, 2019, 10:15:26 pm
"I don't really know what to think about what happened to him last year to get so much worse?  " --Craig

I think Chatwood couldn't handle Darvish's injury.  When Darvish went down, Chatwood became the "star" rotation addition.  #5 starter he could handle.  More than that, not so much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on January 30, 2019, 10:27:58 pm
Is Denver that much of an excuse anymore since they started putting the balls in a humidor?

I recall Chatwood's good stretch of road success two years ago, but perhaps that was a one-off not indicative of future success.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 30, 2019, 10:29:48 pm
Craig, in some ways Chatwood does indeed profile more as a reliever.  You can certainly get away with a higher walk rate that way, though what he was last year wouldn't play in any role, obviously.  Might behoove the Cubs to at least give it a legit shot, since it's pretty clear they're not even going to consider him for the rotation and they're stuck with his salary.  If he could get to his earlier wildness "lite", somewhere between 4-5 BB/9, his stuff would play well in relief.

Not sure there are any other options.  Basically right now he's like a very expensive Rule 5 guy you're forced to carry on the big league roster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 30, 2019, 10:52:31 pm
What is weird is his curve was actually a strike more than his career average and he threw it less than he did in 2017. The Cubs ditched his slider for a cutter and threw that for a strike more often. Neither pitch was great at finding the zone, the curve was a ball 44% vs 46% for his career. The curve was actually his best pitch for being a strike. The cutter was a ball 39.96% vs his slider’s 41%. His change was actually a ball less often too.

His fastball and sinker were a different story. He has a career 38.54% and 39.94% balls for his 4 seam and sinker. Last year it was 43.13% and 49.50% for the 4 seamer and sinker.

I believe the Cubs/Chatwood are going with something was changed with his mechanics or they were just out of sync because his delivery is too complicated. He’s got a lot going on before he ever gets into his throwing motion so I could certainly believe that. He seems like a guy Bosio could have helped, but maybe Hottovy et al can do better for him.

Chatwood’s xFIP on the road/home were always similar. His success away from Coors was do to an unsustainable BABIP and HR rates.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 30, 2019, 11:11:54 pm
I wonder how much Hottovy will be new for Chatwood?  Don't really know how the analysis and input will work or did work last year. 

Was it Hottovy or other guys already doing all of the saber analysis, and analyzing how Chatwood should be distributing his pitches, adjusting his arm slot or release point, etc.?  And then Hickey was the director for implementing those suggestions?  So perhaps with or without Hickey, it's mostly the same guys sourcing ideas, for better or perhaps in Chatwood's case for worse? 

Or was Hickey really the idea guy, and he was the one telling the catchers how many sliders or sinkers or curves to call?  And he was the one analyzing everything and telling Chatwood what to do with his mechanics, and perhaps Hottovy will have totally different ideas? 

I'm hopeful that Hottovy will have some great ideas that will work and solve.  But I'm kind of hesitant, since I assume he was already in a position to input those last year.  If he had solutions, he probably would have already communicated them? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 30, 2019, 11:19:03 pm
The biggest problem with Chatwood's mechanics was taking his eyes off the target, ESPECIALLY with runners on base.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on January 30, 2019, 11:56:19 pm
Chatwood's results were consistently, dramatically better on the road throughout his entire tenure with the Rockies.  Large sample sizes are the enemy of specious arguments.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on January 31, 2019, 11:37:31 am

 
2.  Negative:  His 8.2 is so far out of line from his previous badness, that now he's got the yips.  Yips guys don't come back.   


Baloney.  I hear that Steve Blass has excellent control now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 11:38:18 am
Obviously, Cubs thought Chatwood’s home/road splits were meaningful. They signed him to a lucrative deal (outbidding other significant offers). xFIP (as opposed to FIP) is not a useful stat—-as Keith Law has said. Pretty likely that Cubs don’t care about that.

My guess looking from outside is that the Chatwood issue is 99% mental. Whatever Cubs can make him BELIEVE is helpful, whether tinkering with mechanics, approach, wearing a pink undershirt, whatever, if he believes it and buys in, is the way to go.

Track record in baseball is not very good fixing guys like this, so going to be surprised if he’s an asset. Feel for the guy because this kind of stuff makes everybody uncomfortable and must be tough interracting with teammates, compared to physical issues that so many go through.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on January 31, 2019, 12:22:16 pm
xFIP (as opposed to FIP) is not a useful stat—-as Keith Law has said.

Ummm...

Keith Law is free to have his opinion, but "Thus Sayeth the Keith" isn't a valid argument.

And if Keith Law believes xFIP isn't useful in a truly blanket sense, then he simply doesn't understand what the statistic does or when to use it.

FB/HR rate fluctuation is a real thing, and while some pitchers may have the ability to control FB/HR rate within certain error bars, there's tons of noise in that "signal." Normalizing FB rate in order to strip out some level of randomness is absolutely helpful when evaluating a pitcher's performance.

Statistics are like tools. Try to use a hammer to tighten a lug nut and you're not going to get very far. But that's not the hammer's fault.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 31, 2019, 12:37:42 pm
xFIP neutralizes out HR.  When comparing a guy in Colorado vs not in Colorado could be kinda meaningful, especially in the small sample sizes of home/road splits.  xFIP has a stronger correlation to future results than what FIP does and since Fangraphs only breaks out FIP,xFIP, ERA by home/road I went with the more predictive of the stats.  Do the Cubs use xFIP?  Nope, the paid some math genius to come up with a far better predictive stat incorporating all the data that they have available to them.  That stat would come back with his home/road spilts being meaningless and we are back to high spin rates and velocity to why the Cubs were interested in him.

I would love a link to where Keith Law calls xFIP a junk stat, because I couldn't Google it.  Does it have limitations, sure.  But it still more predicitive than any stat you are using.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 12:39:03 pm
xFIP pretends that actual homers allowed doesn’t matter. That is absurd. There are many other ways to take out noise. Point of FIP is to neutralize vagueries of fielding—things pitchers don’t really control—but of course homers rarely have anything to do with fielding. Pitchers have a whole lot to do with home runs.

If you want to look at flyball rate, here’s what we can do: look at flyball rate! You don’t have to pretend that a homer wasn’t a homer. For me, and K. Law, xFIP is just a bastardization of otherwise useful fielding independent data. You don’t need it. And, it’s misleading.

Especially true for a Rockies pitcher. The notion that actual homers allowed don’t matter for a guy pitching home/road at Coors is really peculiar.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on January 31, 2019, 12:52:44 pm
Again, you're criticizing a hammer cause it won't tighten a lug nut...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 12:56:32 pm
Keith Law has talked about xFIP in his chats as not a useful stat and you won’t find a mention of it in his book Smart Baseball.

Went to one of his book signings awhile back and talked to him specifically about it and basically he said what I noted earlier about other ways to remove noise regarding flyball rate. He did not use the word “garbage” which I edited out of my previous post. That’s too pejorative—-sorry about that. Let’s just say not useful. Think he’s right about that.

Regarding “predictive value”—-that is not the be all/end all of statistics. Brought this up a few weeks ago regarding looking at FIP for retired pitchers with 20 year careers. How is predictive value useful for a guy who retired 30 years ago? Who cares?

For current guys, absolutely yes it’s useful and regular FIP, including actual homers, is useful for its predictive value. But, at some point, lets a actually measure WHAT HAPPENED in terms of runs—-and we ought to care about actual home runs, wven as to predictive. Don’t need xFIP. As I said before, you can look at flyball rate without pretending that actual homers don’t count.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 01:01:56 pm
Again, you're criticizing a hammer cause it won't tighten a lug nut...

Of course, if it’s useful to you, then by all means use it.

There’s so much data out there, why rely on a stat that is flawed in a major way, but that’s me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 31, 2019, 01:10:58 pm
xFIP pretends that actual homers allowed doesn’t matter. That is absurd. There are many other ways to take out noise. Point of FIP is to neutralize vagueries of fielding—things pitchers don’t really control—but of course homers rarely have anything to do with fielding. Pitchers have a whole lot to do with home runs.

If you want to look at flyball rate, here’s what we can do: look at flyball rate! You don’t have to pretend that a homer wasn’t a homer. For me, and K. Law, xFIP is just a bastardization of otherwise useful fielding independent data. You don’t need it. And, it’s misleading.

Especially true for a Rockies pitcher. The notion that actual homers allowed don’t matter for a guy pitching home/road at Coors is really peculiar.

It is good to now that pitchers are 100% responsible for HR and batters, home field, park conditions play no part what so ever in a HR getting hit.  HR are always hit on bad pitches and batters never swing and miss at a bad pitch.  Wind never affects a batted ball and park dimensions, altitude don't affect it either.  The point of these stats is to remove the noise, especially in small sample sizes of home/road splits.  Which is what xFIP does and FIP doesn't do and that is why it is a more predictive stat.  When signing a free agent pitcher you want the more predictive, not descriptive stat.  It really isn't that hard.

The Cubs on the other hand with access to Statcast, weather and enough analysts to correct for all of this.  They'll have a much better stat for this, but sadly the Cubs aren't nice enough to share it with us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 01:45:06 pm
Maybe your argument proves too much. Cubs, with better data as you note, obviously decided xFIP wasn't measuring noise correctly. So, they disregarded the not-useful xFIP. 

Just because we don’t have the state-of-the-art data doesn’t mean we should rely on a flawed noise-reduction device. Ks and walks have variables too. We rely on them. Homers have variables but xFIP cuts out too much good stuff (the ball going over the wall/slat fencing/barrier we can agree on) to get to noise aggregate that may be the lesser component of the ball actually leaving the park.

But, as I said, if you and Tico find it useful, go to it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on January 31, 2019, 02:42:58 pm
Keith Law has talked about xFIP in his chats as not a useful stat and you won’t find a mention of it in his book Smart Baseball.

Went to one of his book signings awhile back and talked to him specifically about it and basically he said what I noted earlier about other ways to remove noise regarding flyball rate. He did not use the word “garbage” which I edited out of my previous post. That’s too pejorative—-sorry about that. Let’s just say not useful. Think he’s right about that.

Keith Law's chats are Google searchable and "Keith Law xFIP chat" returns no results where he says xFIP isn't useful.  Maybe you could link to this.  Sorry I don't really count your personal chat him, unless you have an actual recording you are willing to post.

Regarding “predictive value”—-that is not the be all/end all of statistics. Brought this up a few weeks ago regarding looking at FIP for retired pitchers with 20 year careers. How is predictive value useful for a guy who retired 30 years ago? Who cares?

I was unaware that Chatwood retired 30 years ago.  In 2049 I'll agree that his FIP and xFIP on the road aren't going to be important to me.

For current guys, absolutely yes it’s useful and regular FIP, including actual homers, is useful for its predictive value. But, at some point, lets a actually measure WHAT HAPPENED in terms of runs—-and we ought to care about actual home runs, wven as to predictive. Don’t need xFIP. As I said before, you can look at flyball rate without pretending that actual homers don’t count.

If there was only someone that really understood these stats and was good at statistics who could compare the predictive value of FIP and xFIP with regards to future results and then went to publish their work on the internet and it was easily searchable by using www.google.com.  That would be pretty cool, too bad no one was ever thought to do this.  His flyball rate in 2017 was greater on the road.  This tells us what?

Yes, teams have better stats then what is available to the public.  This shouldn't be a shock to anyone, but since he don't have access to those stats we should use the best tools at out disposal.  cFIP from Baseball Prospectus is likely better than xFIP, but I really don't like BP and find it hard to navigate so I don't bother with it.  Feel free to post it if it is something different.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 31, 2019, 03:03:10 pm
Hoping we are not in for another CUBluejays v. Reb battle royal. ::)   I am pretty sure that no minds are going to be changed.  But if so, can a separate topic be created for that? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on January 31, 2019, 03:16:55 pm
For a given pitcher, GB rate is much more consistent than HR/FB. This isn't an opinion. It's for this reason that xFIP can be useful. "Useful" doesn't mean best, most predictive, or any other superlative. "Useful" simply acknowledges that the small sample size of HR's hit causes enormous and non-indicative fluctuations in HR/FB rate from one year to the next.

Take Jake deGrom as an example. I didn’t select him because he’s the perfect example to make my case. I literally just grabbed the guy at the top of the 2018 WAR leaderboard. You could pull just about any pitcher and walk through the same set of statistics I’m about to run for you.

Season   GB%   HR/FB      
2014   45.4   6.1   
2015   44.4   9.5       
2016   45.6   11.5   
2017   45.3   16.1   
2018   46.4   6.3   

Not only are the actual numerical values around GB much tighter than HR/FB (2 point change versus 10 point change), GB is several orders of magnitude more stable than HR/FB when considering percentage change (+4.5%  vs +163.9%)

Looking at his best season HR/FB season (2014) and his worst (2017), the GB rate is basically identical, so it’s not like JdG gave up a bunch more fly balls and therefore a bunch more homers.

So let’s dig deeper into batted ball profile. HR’s are most most closely associated with pull% and hard-hit%. One would expect JdG to have given up more pulled baseballs or hard-hit baseballs in 2017 as compared to 2014, right?

Season   Pull%   Hard%
2014   39.0   31.8
2017   35.1   31.9

So the GB rate and hard-hit rate are nearly identical 2014 v 2017, and the pull rate is significantly DOWN in 2017. And yet 2017 sees a 163.9% increase in HR allowed, and there’s no amount of chance, variance, luck, etc., that’s worth acknowledging? Right…
Title: Re: Cubs in '1
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 03:33:29 pm
Obviously, what Keith says about this is important to you, so go through his chats.  Do some legwork if you care that much. I simply mentioned him in passing but if it will change your mind, maybe you should take the time.

Alternatively, you might want to look at Smart Baseball. I’ll you give you a heads up—-he doesn’t bother with it, which you’d expect if you read his chat.

The point about predictive stats and retired pitchers is that it’s one big generic aggregate pool. There are outliers. You can see who they are when all is said and done and they pitch a zillion innings. Then, mostly we want to look at what actually happened.

Sometimes, we should want to do that too in some respects for a current guy too. You totally discount ERA in pitcher evaluation, for example. I want to rely on that, in part, with other tools. I’m interested in FIP, but ERA too.  If we rely totally on predictive stats for a given pitcher, we tend to ignore the potential outlier guy.

Getting back to Chatwood, especially in retrospect, think he was kind of a tough guy to evaluate to begin with. More than ironic that the most non-stat component of all—his head—probably was his undoing in 2018. You’re not going to find an explanation in his road xFIP.

Regarding Ron’s post, think this thread has been a civil exchange of views. I unfortunately used (and then deleted after) the phrase “garbage stat” which was pejorative and my bad. But, otherwise, think it’s a good discussion. We can stop now if Ron is getting bored.  :o


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 04:10:44 pm
It’s ironic that you use deGrom as an example, Tico, because back in 2014 CBJ was telling me that home/road split that year was indicative that deGrom would be coming back to Earth in the future. I had just seen deGrom at the ballpark and loved him him going forward. I know you could have picked anybody, though.

Regarding deGrom’s 2017 homers, isn’t it fair to say that we could have just looked at his high HR total, period, and surmised that the high HRs was an outlier? DeGrom even talked about that—befuddled by some balls going out. And, there were better ways to evaluate his future, such as his career high K % in 2017—which in his case was more predictive than anything for 2018.

Don’t think it adds anything useful and then maybe starts being a partial explanation for Chatwood’s demise, which is mostly misdirection, a second cousin to evaluating deGrom’s future based on home/road in 2014.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on January 31, 2019, 04:49:26 pm
Regarding deGrom’s 2017 homers, isn’t it fair to say that we could have just looked at his high HR total, period, and surmised that the high HRs was an outlier? DeGrom even talked about that—befuddled by some balls going out. And, there were better ways to evaluate his future, such as his career high K % in 2017—which in his case was more predictive than anything for 2018.

I'm so confused. This is *literally* the whole point if xFIP. It isolates to underlying fundamentals and writes out the anomalous variance in HR/FB.

Because, yes, of course, given constant GB rate and increasing K rate, we should expect better performance.

This. Is. xFIP.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on January 31, 2019, 04:53:54 pm
Until I see any of this in The National Inquirer, I consider all of this garbage.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on January 31, 2019, 05:03:32 pm
I'm sure I'm missing some of the nuances of this discussion, but very interesting.  Thanks, guys!
Chatwood is interesting, because there was so much discussion about how his road stats had been so superior to at Coors; the hope was that the good road production would be the full-time success going forwards.  He also talked about how much easier it would be to pitch away from Coors, because he felt like he needed to be two different pitchers, since the amount of movement with exactly the same delivery were so different.  So he needed different grips and release and stuff home and away, which challenged his control and mechanical consistency. 

Blue's note that xFIP didn't really show much predictive difference based on his home versus road is interesting. 

But as reb notes,  NOTHING either road or home could have predicted what happened to him. FIP, xFIP, ERA, road, home, none of those stats or sample sets predicted his walk-rate doubling and his complete loss of any consistency with his fastball or sinker. 

Likewise I don't think any analysis of his former stats are necessarily very predictive for his future.  Once the yips get in a guy's head, there is no reason to assume that pre-yips performance with a pre-yips mind is going to be predictive, or that the guy will revert to the mean.  I suspect that even if he puts together some good innings, and we're hoping that he's "fixed", that even then every time he throws two bad balls, those "here-it-goes-again" doubts will immediately start grabbing both us as fans and the dark place in Chatwood's mind. 

Of course I may be wrong, maybe the mental control and the level of self-confidence, never-doubt-myself self-assurance is so powerful in the pro athlete that he never has those self-doubts that would eat me up.  And perhaps a mechanical correction will decisively fix everything.  But I really think that *IF* he can come back and be effective, that will be just an amazing human triumph, very unlikely and admirable if it comes true. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on January 31, 2019, 05:22:13 pm
I think it was Tom Tango who said, generally about stats, that a stat is basically useless if it’s telling you what you already know from other simpler means. Then (me speaking) it too often is used as misdirection to make another point. Chatwood road xFIP in 2017 to explain something about Chatwood 2018 is an example.

So, we have FIP, a pretty good stat. Not perfect but good. As you know, derived from Voros’ work—-some of which has been proven wrong but still very important. Let’s look at walks, Ks, HBP, homers, that’s all.

HRs are one more step to the right (from walks and Ks to the left and some other stuff) on the pitching spectrum of events pitchers can control. Way to the left. Farther to the right are a whole bunch of events leading to things with minimal to zero pitcher control.

I would just stop at FIP. It’s telling me what I need. Parsing away the actual HRs doesn’t tell me much of anything additionally that I can’t get better by other means. Therefore, for me, it’s useless. I should not have used garbage, and useless is a better word than flawed too. The latter is more about misdirection of the stat (any stat really) when it clouds better explanations or no real explanation.

No great explanation is sometimes the best response. I think advanced stats are too often cherry picked—not talking about you or others here. We don’t need stuff of such negligible, if any, value that compounds the likelihood of misuse.

So, if others find it useful and I find it not useful, that’s just personal preference. Go ahead and post xFIP of course if you find it useful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on January 31, 2019, 05:26:29 pm
Regarding Ron’s post, think this thread has been a civil exchange of views. I unfortunately used (and then deleted after) the phrase “garbage stat” which was pejorative and my bad. But, otherwise, think it’s a good discussion. We can stop now if Ron is getting bored.  :o

Nah, I know how to scroll.  And I do appreciate that this discussion really has, for the most part, been not only civil but even respectful.  So far.   ;)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 01, 2019, 02:36:07 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  18m18 minutes ago

LHP Ian Clarkin cleared waivers, assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs' 40-man roster at 38.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 01, 2019, 03:00:09 pm
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs sign free agent reliever Tony Barnette to one-year deal plus option for 2020.

It's $750,000 plus incentives with a $3 million option according to Gonzales. Barnette has been good in MLB, but his season ended last year with a shoulder injury in July. This is a complete LIAB signing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 01, 2019, 03:10:59 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  18m18 minutes ago
LHP Ian Clarkin cleared waivers, assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa. Cubs' 40-man roster at 38.

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Cubs sign free agent reliever Tony Barnette to one-year deal plus option for 2020.

Based on the timing, I wonder if these two moves are related. The 40 man is at 39 after the Barnette signing, so they could've kept Clarkin on the roster. Could another move be coming?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 01, 2019, 04:12:06 pm
Good story

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25893836/inside-37-year-old-pitcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 01, 2019, 04:13:00 pm
Brad Brach isn’t yet on the 40-man. Not sure why, but that’s the 40th spot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 01, 2019, 04:15:36 pm
Brad Brach isn’t yet on the 40-man. Not sure why, but that’s the 40th spot.
physical not passed yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on February 01, 2019, 04:15:57 pm
Quote
Good story

Was he one of the Iowa Four?  I feel old.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 01, 2019, 05:28:26 pm
Good story

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25893836/inside-37-year-old-pitcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

Very, very cool.  Really happy the Cubs wanted him back and that he wanted to come back to the Cubs. It would be magical if he can make it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 01, 2019, 05:32:46 pm
There is a little debate if Barnette has a minor league option remaining. The thought is that since he was in Japan his last option is gone.

Really excited that the Cubs got Haegerty. A 6-7 lefty that is close to 100 could be fun out of the bullpen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 01, 2019, 05:36:28 pm
He'd change the outlook of our pen drastically.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on February 01, 2019, 06:03:32 pm
Man, I really hope Hagerty makes it.  What a great story.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on February 01, 2019, 06:13:02 pm
Amazing story.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 01, 2019, 06:14:38 pm
I'm getting LIAB flashbacks to an earlier era.  Anyone else?

Some bottles actually do contain lightening.

When Theo signed David Ortiz in early 2003, that is essentially what that move was.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on February 01, 2019, 06:15:17 pm
There is a little debate if Barnette has a minor league option remaining. The thought is that since he was in Japan his last option is gone.

Really excited that the Cubs got Haegerty. A 6-7 lefty that is close to 100 could be fun out of the bullpen.

According to Arizona Phil, Barnette has THREE options remaining.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 01, 2019, 06:17:34 pm
According to Arizona Phil, Barnette has THREE options remaining.

Hard to imagine the Cubs would sign him if he had no options left, since at best he seems like a logical Des Moines shuttle candidate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 01, 2019, 06:26:29 pm
So which would be more unlikely - Haegerty pitching in the majors again for the Cubs in 2019, or Danny Hultzen?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on February 01, 2019, 06:29:40 pm
Good story

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25893836/inside-37-year-old-pitcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

That was the year (2002) the Cubs drafted 7 pitchers in the 1st 4 rounds.

In addition to Hagerty, the Cubs also drafted Matthew Clanton (1st round), Robert Brownlie (1st round),
Chadd Blasko (1st round), Justin Jones (2nd round), William Petrick (3rd round), ... and a current major leaguer who has played for 10 major league teams
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on February 01, 2019, 06:41:00 pm
And still going strong.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on February 01, 2019, 06:42:36 pm
So which would be more unlikely - Haegerty pitching in the majors again for the Cubs in 2019, or Danny Hultzen?

Hultzen would probably be more unlikely, as crazy as that sounds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 01, 2019, 07:11:20 pm
Tony Barnette makes a good first impression on Twitter replying to the Cubs' announcement of his signing:

Tony Barnette @HeyBarn
The weather is ripe for spring here in AZ and my family and I are thrilled to get this year started with the @Cubs.

(Reads first comment) also....I’d like apologize my name doesn’t rhym with....tarper
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 02, 2019, 09:35:09 am
Rumor that Harper and the Cubs met on Friday is floating around Twitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 02, 2019, 09:58:02 am
Rumor that Harper and the Cubs met on Friday is floating around Twitter.


;D
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 02, 2019, 10:16:14 am
Ron is confessing that he started the rumor?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on February 02, 2019, 10:24:54 am
TIRGGER!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 02, 2019, 10:28:56 am
Ron is confessing that he started the rumor?

Ron is laughing because this was posted not all that long after a debate here on the value of unsourced rumors.  Could not tell if CUBluejays posted it to be intentionally humorous or unintentionally humorous. Found it humorous either way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 02, 2019, 10:31:28 am
Sullivan is reporting that someone saw Bryce Harper in a Chicago Starbucks.

Oh wait ... that was Theo Epstein seven years ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 02, 2019, 10:36:57 am
Harper is signing today!  And giving half his money to Trump!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 02, 2019, 10:46:11 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  18h18 hours ago
the addition of the Nats game means the Cubs will play on three consecutive Sunday nights in May - vs. STL on May 5, vs. Milwaukee on May 12 and at DC on May 19.


The new ESPN Sunday night starting time of 6:05 isn't as much of a factor as it was in 2018 when the Cubs seemed to always have a long flight somewhere for their next game.
May 5 is at home vs the Cardinals followed by at home against the Marlins
May 12 at home vs the Brewers followed by an off day
May 19 at Washington followed by the Phillies at Wrigley at night
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 02, 2019, 11:09:27 am
And Mooney shots it down. He’s such a kill joy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 02, 2019, 11:21:50 am
Harper would be a nice addition.

(Not sure if allowed say that after unsourced rumor).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 02, 2019, 12:56:01 pm
 Arizona Phil:

The delay in the Cubs filing the Brach contract with MLB is most-likely a matter of the physical being delayed by the weather or Brach could have had a bad case of the flu or something like that, but it is also conceivable that he has taken the physical, some pre-existing issue was discovered, and so now the Cubs are attempting to rework the deal. That does happen sometimes. It's not official until the contract is filed with MLB.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 02, 2019, 04:57:53 pm
Harper is signing today!  And giving half his money to Trump!

That would be a win-win for Trump's 2020 finance director.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 02, 2019, 06:17:27 pm
Harper is signing today!  And giving half his money to Trump!

Which half?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 03, 2019, 03:16:56 pm
Cubs have signed Christian Bergman to a minor league contract.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/cubs-sign-christian-bergman.html

How many bad major league pitchers are they going to sign to minor league contracts?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 03, 2019, 05:07:00 pm
Obviously, Theo and his group have NO idea what they're doing!

Obviously, Cub ownership is really cheap!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 03, 2019, 05:09:39 pm
Stop keeping track of Harper.  Trail Boras' ass.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on February 04, 2019, 09:25:36 pm
Addison Russell and Joe Ricketts as disgustingly ugly bookends. This offseason has been awful.

https://apple.news/AF1yVoTNiQ9K_IQjMaBlHSw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 04, 2019, 09:47:39 pm
How many bad major league pitchers are they going to sign to minor league contracts?

That is a legit question. They have limited roster space at the AAA/AA level.

The AAA bullpen battle will include Mekkees, Maples, Wick, Rosario, Underwood, Mills, Ryan, Webster, Norwood, Hultzen, Brooks, Lillis-White and Clarkin before you start adding in any of the other minor league signings.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 04, 2019, 11:40:37 pm
Addison Russell and Joe Ricketts as disgustingly ugly bookends. This offseason has been awful.

https://apple.news/AF1yVoTNiQ9K_IQjMaBlHSw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’m going to disagree. Tom pushes back pretty hard against the emails in his statement. Pete was pushing back against what he was saying in the emails. I’d hate to be judged by what some of my older family members but on Facebook, let alone what might be their emails.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 05, 2019, 09:21:37 am
What rational person cares?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on February 05, 2019, 09:28:00 am
I’m going to disagree. Tom pushes back pretty hard against the emails in his statement. Pete was pushing back against what he was saying in the emails. I’d hate to be judged by what some of my older family members but on Facebook, let alone what might be their emails.
I agree, I was shocked to find out my grandparents were racist. They were otherwise good people but my grandma quit watching golf because she hated Tiger Woods. I only found out when I brought my black friend to the farm to help bale hay. Does that make me a racist? Guilt by association? I think a lot of the older generation were racist, not all, but a lot. My generation, (I was born in 1970) it wasn't as prevalent growing up and is mostly gone. Hopefully my kids and their peers wipe it out almost completely. There will always be a small subset, but I think we are better today in that way. Hopefully Joe's comments lead to him no longer being involved in any way with the Cubs. I doubt very much that getting caught is going to change his behavior, he will just be more careful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 05, 2019, 09:34:48 am
I doubt very much that getting caught is going to change his behavior, he will just be more careful.

Behavior?

There was nothing at the link addressing "behavior."

"Behavior" is different from "thinking" or even "commenting."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on February 05, 2019, 09:45:12 am
Racism is mostly gone? Is that serious?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on February 05, 2019, 09:58:10 am
Yes it is. I will put a link in the Politics board with a terrific discussion of racism today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on February 05, 2019, 10:35:00 am
Hard pass on you most undoubtedly linking some wild right wing talking points. Racism is not diminishing and it will never go away. Absurd.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on February 05, 2019, 10:39:59 am
It is fueled by ignorance - in my experience.

Rational intelligent people I have met treat people on the same level - although I do believe some"stereotypes" are valid
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on February 05, 2019, 10:50:35 am
Imagine being shocked that an old mormon was a racist.  That's almost as ridiculous as thinking racism is mostly gone. I guess since you think black people can wear the magic underwear now that it's all good. It's not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 05, 2019, 10:52:59 am
Maybe take this to the Politics and Religion topic....................................
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chiman on February 05, 2019, 10:54:36 am
Agree.....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on February 05, 2019, 11:30:49 am
Wouldn't the Ricketts email discussion belong here though?  The General racism discussion could move but the email discussion should stay here.

Don't be jamming up the politics thread with Cubs crap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 05, 2019, 12:41:59 pm
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/reins-are-cubs-pitching-prospect-adbert-alzolay-after-injury-shortened-2018-farm-system-bullpen
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 05, 2019, 02:47:39 pm
**IF** Alzolay emerged as a good pitcher, that would really help.  With the Cubs very old staff, long-term it would be super cool if he would emerge as a winner and look like a good guy to replace Hamels with in 2020.  Not sure that's super likely, but it would be so helpful if it turned out. 

Super curious how the Cubs will manage him this season, to balance the desire to limit his innings but also perhaps have him available to help win games in 2nd-half and in October.  Do you just limit him to 3-4 innings a start throughout the season?  Put him one a 7-day rotation?  Pitch regular minor-league-starter innings and schedule, but take a month off during mid-season to save some innings for the playoff run?  Will be curious to see. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 05, 2019, 03:29:58 pm
Maybe take this to the Politics and Religion topic....................................

Unfortunately the Ricketts have made it almost impossible to separate the two topics now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 05, 2019, 05:44:32 pm
No doubt about it - spring training cannot begin soon enough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 06, 2019, 08:10:39 am
MLBPA is interested in adding the DH to the NL this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 06, 2019, 08:17:53 am
MLBPA is interested in adding the DH to the NL this season.
Posted the whole article on Around Baseball.   DH, pitchers must face 3 hitters, limiting number of pitchers, increasing size of roster, etc.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on February 06, 2019, 12:31:41 pm
Does a rule change like that motivate the cubs to go out and spend more now?  The outfield is less crowded with Schwarber as DH
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 06, 2019, 12:59:04 pm
Because the Cubs typically go with 13 pitchers, it would follow that a 26-man roster AND a 12 pitcher limit means TWO additional position player bench guys for the Cubs. That would be fun. I really like a 26-man roster. With Cubs lately, always seemed that a 4-man bench was too limiting.

With current roster, a DH probably would mean more ABs for Zobrist, with Schwarber and Zobrist sharing two spots. Or, could mean more CF starts for Almora—with opportunity to still get ABs for Happ even with Almora in CF. Would be nice if Almora could hit enough to be an everyday guy out there

Effective swap of Descalso for LaStella probably had a lot to do with limits of a 4-man bench. If you had a 6-man bench instead, LaStella would have been a nice lefty bat without worrying much about defensive limitations. Also, two extra guys might give you room to carry a Terrence Gore-type guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 06, 2019, 01:04:37 pm
Im all for a DH.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 06, 2019, 01:08:09 pm
Im all for a DH.


Well, that settles it then.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 06, 2019, 01:10:42 pm
That's what I figured.

It was stupid to have different rules for each league.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on February 06, 2019, 01:11:36 pm
Agreed.  The AL should renounce the DH.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 06, 2019, 02:04:11 pm
If it were up to me, I would eliminate the DH in the American League.

If that could not be done, I would add the DH in the National League.  It is silly to have the two league with different rules.

In either case, I would favor both a 26 man roster AND a 12 pitcher limit.

But I don't think any of the above are important enough to care very much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 06, 2019, 03:30:17 pm
If I worked for the union, and cared about my membership, I'd be strongly opposed to introducing a 12-pitcher limit. 

Thanks that would be an invitation to overwork guys and result in dead arms and injuries.  And also an invitation for guys who are already hurting to be heroes, to pitch through pain, and to make problems get worse. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 06, 2019, 03:45:29 pm
If I worked for the union, and cared about my membership, I'd be strongly opposed to introducing a 12-pitcher limit. 

Thanks that would be an invitation to overwork guys and result in dead arms and injuries.  And also an invitation for guys who are already hurting to be heroes, to pitch through pain, and to make problems get worse. 



Teams managed with 10 or 11 man staffs until very recently by choice.  Many choose to use 12 now.  I don't see that as a crisis point for pitcher injuries.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 06, 2019, 07:43:23 pm
Here are the Cubs non-roster invitees. Click on link at top of this link, listing non-roster invitees.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/roster/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 06, 2019, 08:02:49 pm
Interesting that Hagerty wasn't on the list.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on February 06, 2019, 08:20:15 pm
Extended, for sure.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 06, 2019, 08:29:55 pm
All kidding aside, I wonder if there’s a non-zero chance this flood of horrible publicity will make the Rickettses at least consider making a play at Harper to change the narrative. Maybe .5%?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 06, 2019, 09:32:58 pm
Interesting that Hagerty wasn't on the list.

Sounds like the yips are a real concern when with him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 06, 2019, 11:47:02 pm
Well in that ESPN article, they said they were going to take it as easy with Hagerty as need be or push him aggressively as well if they think he could handle it.  It's not terribly shocking that they're going more towards the "taking it easy" approach to him since he hasn't pitched professionally for a very long time.

It'd be an awesome story if he somehow makes it this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 07, 2019, 08:48:02 am
First round of Pecota projected standings aren't very positive on the Cubs:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyzuMBTX0AAYZ6F.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 07, 2019, 08:53:15 am
If anyone is putting money on it, I will be happy to take the over on 82 wins.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 07, 2019, 09:30:58 am
So BP has the Cubs as negative value defensive team.  The Cubs had +43 DRS, UZR last year 23.4.  I know BP includes pitch framing, but I don't think Willson is that bad. 

The pitching estimates with the Cubs giving up close to 100 more runs seem a bit off too....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 07, 2019, 09:50:20 am
That will be interesting.  Hendricks and Quintana have logged a lot of innings on their arms.  They aren't old, but it isn't uncommon for guys with so much work on their arms to slip some.  Lester and Hamels are old, so it wouldn't be statistically that unlikely for either of both to show some slippage. Darvish isn't young either, and after a couple of surgeries, even if his arm isn't hurting who knows how many HR's he might give up?  Last year, as Maddon has reminded, the bullpen ranked as top in the league, right?  Looking at the personnel there, I'm not sure I'd be shocked if they weren't the best this year?  So I can understand how a saber analysis might anticipate some non-trivial regression, from both the pen and the rotation.  . 

Still, even if the Cubs do have the oldest rotation in baseball, that doesn't necessitate that it will decline.  Each guy is unique, so who knows which veteran pitcher will be unaffected by age and wear and will be as good or maybe better than last year? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 07, 2019, 10:17:22 am
So Steamer isn't super high on the Cubs pitching projecting starters between 3.7 to mid 4 for ERA.  That totals to 883 innings and 426 runs.  The Cubs last pitched 1476.1 innings which means that in the 593 innings left over the Cubs would need to allow 304 runs or a 4.61RA/9. The Cubs bullpen last pitched 588 innings and allowed 240 runs. 

That is the Cubs rotation/bullpen/defense falling apart.   

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 09, 2019, 07:54:27 am
Any one else think Brad Brach isn’t going to get signed?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 09, 2019, 10:33:48 am
You’d think one of the beat writers, with access, would write about the Brach situation. Been almost two weeks since reports of the signing...and nothing official. Seems like more than a logistical issue, whatever it is.

Jordan Bastian at mlb.com discussed Brach on Friday without even mentioning the oddity that the deal not official after so long.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 09, 2019, 11:42:46 am
Same as this?

Cubs signed RHP Junichi Tazawa to a minor league contract.
The deal was reported by Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Tazawa split last year between the Marlins and Angels, combining to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 31 agonizingly-poor outings. He managed to strike out 28 batters in 28 innings but also issued 16 walks and gave up seven homers in that short time. The 32-year-old has struggled in each of the last four seasons and seems unlikely to ever get back to pitching like he did when he was one of the better relievers in baseball with the Red Sox for a few years. Jan 26 - 9:40 AM

ESPN on February 6
Quote
CHICAGO -- Reliever Junichi Tazawa has finalized a minor league contract with the Chicago Cubs and will report to big league spring training.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 09, 2019, 11:46:17 am
"I dont think we need anyone. We know what we've got."--Javy Baez
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 09, 2019, 12:44:41 pm
Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 09, 2019, 12:57:00 pm
Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days.

Yeah, we’ll seen then if Brad Brach shows up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 10, 2019, 02:48:39 pm
I know it makes little sense, but I still have hopes that the Cubs sign Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 11, 2019, 12:23:38 pm
The Brach signing is finally official. This tweet seems to speculate that the delay was so that they could keep the 40 man roster at 39 for as long as possible:

Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith @cubprospects
Finally! Brach will take the 40-man to a full 40, but it’ll go right back to 39 tomorrow or Wednesday when Kendall Graveman hits the 60-day DL. Cubs have really prioritized staying flexible at the back end of the 40 this winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 11, 2019, 12:38:22 pm
Brach - One-year contract with a mutual option for 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 11, 2019, 12:47:42 pm
Already in Cot's

1 year/$4.35M (2019), plus 2020 options
signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 1/19
19:$M, 20:$M club option or $M player option
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 12, 2019, 08:26:24 am
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25974053/bring-spring-winter-discontent-cubs-move-on

Reflects many of our thoughts on this board.  Our unhappiness is not in 90+ winning seasons but in the fading of dynasty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 12, 2019, 09:20:58 am
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25974053/bring-spring-winter-discontent-cubs-move-on

Reflects many of our thoughts on this board.  Our unhappiness is not in 90+ winning seasons but in the fading of dynasty.
I'm glad Contreras is already in Mesa.  I was concerned that he might have trouble getting out of Venezuela.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 12, 2019, 09:57:09 am
All the Cub fan teeth-gnashing this off-season is understandable.

However, as one who followed one crappy Cub team after another that had HORRIBLE leadership decade after decade, I feel GREAT about the leadership, direction and outlook for the 2019 Cubs!

The NLC will be, perhaps, the toughest division n MLB, so who knows how things will turn out for the Cubs?  Yet I'm confident our leadership will continue to make sound decisions, based on careful, disciplined thought processes - as they have the past several years (Exhibit A: the almost unthinkable World Championship for the Chicago Cubs!) 

What other leadership group could have overcome the odds to get that done?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 12, 2019, 11:41:28 am
Sharma:

“despite the 40-man roster being full – and 26 of those being pitchers – there are still murmurs of the Cubs adding another piece to the bullpen”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 12, 2019, 12:01:12 pm
Ill take Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 12, 2019, 12:06:28 pm
Sharma:

“despite the 40-man roster being full – and 26 of those being pitchers – there are still murmurs of the Cubs adding another piece to the bullpen”
We have a number of guys who could be DFA'd if necessary.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 12, 2019, 12:07:29 pm
If Cubs add another reliever, there was earlier in off-season speculation about lefty Jake Diekman. Nothing lately.

Kind of interesting guy. Diekman has career slugging % against of only .333.

But, he walks way too many guys and sometimes is better against righties than lefties (but not career overall). Velocity has dropped two ticks from 97 to 95.

Still, the low extra bases against and high Ks interesting. Another lightning in a bottle kind of guy, with Cubs still short of lefties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 12, 2019, 12:09:03 pm
All the Cub fan teeth-gnashing this off-season is understandable.

However, as one who followed one crappy Cub team after another that had HORRIBLE leadership decade after decade, I feel GREAT about the leadership, direction and outlook for the 2019 Cubs!

The NLC will be, perhaps, the toughest division n MLB, so who knows how things will turn out for the Cubs?  Yet I'm confident our leadership will continue to make sound decisions, based on careful, disciplined thought processes - as they have the past several years (Exhibit A: the almost unthinkable World Championship for the Chicago Cubs!) 

What other leadership group could have overcome the odds to get that done?


I don't disagree with you, Ben, but as fans we were assured that once we suffered through the "tanking" days, the commitment to $$$ would be there.  It started with Lester, then Heyward, then Zobrist, the Darvish, but now...no mo' $$$.   Dynasties don't happen if you quit spending.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 12, 2019, 12:10:38 pm
We have a number of guys who could be DFA'd if necessary.

Yeah, and reports that Cubs will put Graveman on 60-day DL shortly to open up another spot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 12, 2019, 12:18:55 pm
I don't disagree with you, Ben, but as fans we were assured that once we suffered through the "tanking" days, the commitment to $$$ would be there.  It started with Lester, then Heyward, then Zobrist, the Darvish, but now...no mo' $$$.   Dynasties don't happen if you quit spending.

I'm not sure it's so much the lack of spending, but that the spending hasn't been spent as well as it could have.

The Astros supplemented their core with Verlander, Cole, and Morton.  We supplemented our core with Quintana, Heyward, and Darvish.

Not to write off our guys, but that's a big reason why the Astros have kept their momentum going while ours has stalled some.  Their additions have just been better up to this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 12, 2019, 12:33:11 pm
JR is writing off our guys again.  What a grinch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 12, 2019, 12:54:05 pm
We got ZERO out of Darvish last year...and that was last year.

In hindsight, which is 20/20, Theo et al have made some bad decisions (not surprisingly)...and we've averaged more wins than ANY other NL team over the last 4 seasons.

PECOTA apparently projects Cubs to finish tied for LAST PLACE.  To that I say, GOOD!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on February 12, 2019, 01:45:10 pm
Theo must be quite confident about Yu, Morrow, and Bryant to take the approach he is taking.  Hope he's right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 12, 2019, 04:10:35 pm
GM Jed Hoyer noted that prospect Adbert Alzolay is a couple weeks behind schedule. Felt something in his side in a mound session last week. Cubs using “an abundance of caution” after his health woes last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 12, 2019, 04:33:28 pm
Theo must be quite confident about Yu, Morrow, and Bryant to take the approach he is taking.  Hope he's right.

Not following.  What other approach could he have taken?  I kinda feel like he's committed to his personnel assembly in the past, and now needs to ride them as far as they can take him.  Can't undo the commitments made.  He's been given enough budget to have the highest payroll and he's spent it all out.  Likewise he's spent all of his farm talent to get what Nowacrat good he could from Quintana, Davis, Justin Wilson, and Chapman.  He's had a lot of discretionary resource and he's spent them all.  Probably now it's time to just sit back and see what they can do. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 12, 2019, 05:05:33 pm
Actually I'm not sure Theo is being terribly unreasonable either about a stand pat approach.  If Darvish is still a zero, Quintana is still a passable mid-rotation guy, Heyward, Schwarber, Russell can't hit, etc., I'm not sure what good adding Harper or Machado is going to do.   We'll likely be the same as we were last year or perhaps a little worse if someone like Lester starts showing some wear and tear.  And on the flip side if most of those guys rebound, we should be pretty good even without the high priced free agents. 

We've pretty much made our bed with the guys we have, for better or worse. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 12, 2019, 05:08:51 pm


Full length video of the 45 minute press conference with Theo, Jed and Joe. Besides discussing baseball, Theo addressed at length Addison Russell's relationship with the Cubs and what the Cubs are trying to do not only in support of him and his ex-wife, but also in combating domestic violence within and outside the organization. He also addressed Joe Ricketts' emails and the Cubs' organizational response in some detail.


https://www.facebook.com/cbschicago/videos/1982060945430450/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 12, 2019, 05:21:17 pm
So last year the Dodgers led position players with 33 fWAR. Adding Harper to Rizzo and Bryant would get the Cubs to roughly 15 fWAR in 3 players. The rest of the Cubs roster would put them well above the Dodgers in positional fWAR. It would be a huge deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 12, 2019, 06:28:00 pm
PECOTA apparently projects Cubs to finish tied for LAST PLACE.  To that I say, GOOD!

I do have to wonder, I mean considering how incredibly valuable and accurate those PECOTA projections and all are why it is that some owner doesn't take a flyer on the folks who run it and just hire them to run a team's front office?

Or perhaps PECOTA just pays so incredibly well that no team could match it?

Couldn't possibly be that PECOTA's value is, well, dogsh!t.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 12, 2019, 06:31:10 pm
So last year the Dodgers led position players with 33 fWAR. Adding Harper to Rizzo and Bryant would get the Cubs to roughly 15 fWAR in 3 players. The rest of the Cubs roster would put them well above the Dodgers in positional fWAR. It would be a huge deal.

And I still am not convinced any other MLB team is more likely to sign Harper than the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 12, 2019, 07:07:39 pm
Full length video of the 45 minute press conference with Theo, Jed and Joe...
https://www.facebook.com/cbschicago/videos/1982060945430450/

Thanks much for link, Ron.  Much appreciated, interesting to listen to.  A lot of it was dedicated to the broad social issues of domestic abuse and tolerance, and to labor and free agency, but there was some Cubs-baseball stuff towards the end, too. 
1.  Theo made it clear they aren't going to pull any surprise big-ticket signings,
2.  although there was reference to a chance they'd sign a reliever. 
3.  Alzolay being on the precautionary disabled status. 
4.  No other unexpected health issues, thus far.  Obviously Morrow and Graveman, I think otherwise the only guy they mentioned was Colin Rae. 
5.  Maddon was really enthusiastic and gushed about Darvish, thinks he's fully healthy, and is very optimistic about what a healthy Yu will bring.

Hey, since I haven't mentioned it, I do admit that the optimistic Darvish talk is really what I want for spring stories.  :)  It's the fun, hope-springs-eternal spring camp stories that get me enthused for the season, more than years-distant labor deals, or Ricketts tweets or domestic abuse.  What if Darvish actually is fully healthy this year?  What if his velocity is good and stays excellent, and the carry and sail on his fastball is really excellent?  What if his arm doesn't hurt, and he can throw more strikes?  **IF** they got a really good Darvish on a consistent basis, that would be a huge boost!  Hope it happens!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 12, 2019, 07:14:54 pm
Any reliever they sign is likely to be a cheap lefty. Here are the LH relievers who are still available (from MLBTradeRumors; age in parentheses). Any strong preferences? I think I lean towards Tony Sipp.

Xavier Cedeno (32)
Jorge De La Rosa (38)
Jake Diekman (32)
Dan Jennings (32)
Boone Logan (34)
Aaron Loup (31)
Robbie Ross (30)
Tony Sipp (35)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 12, 2019, 08:13:53 pm
Sipp would be fine.

I like Aaron Loup a little more if he is healthy, because he was horrible with the Phillies.  Diekman could be a lot like Justin Wilson.  If you got him to throw enough strikes he could be an amazing, but at his age it seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 12, 2019, 08:48:53 pm
Not sure any of them are that much better than Duensing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 13, 2019, 06:11:07 am
The Chicago Cubs and Sinclair broadcasting will announce today the formation of Marquee regional sports network. This will be the exclusive home for all Chicago Cub TV games beginning in Feb 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on February 13, 2019, 01:25:16 pm
And Bryce Harper will be signed tomorrow by the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on February 13, 2019, 01:26:19 pm
It's business people.  Couldn't have that liability on the books before the merger deal. 

;)

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 13, 2019, 04:11:36 pm
Edwards was doing an Kershaw like delay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 13, 2019, 06:08:45 pm

https://www.facebook.com/cbschicago/videos/1982060945430450/

The last minute of that would seem to have dashed any hope of signing Harper, even on a one year deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 13, 2019, 06:31:28 pm
The PECOTA Cubs projections are a trip.

Zobrist has a below average hitter. Baez and Schwarber as equally bad defenders. Almora as a negative defender and hitter. Happ as one of the worst defenders in baseball in 431 PA. Bryant gaining 20 points of slugging over last year.

The pitching staff is the real treat. Darvish with the best ERA at 3.80. Hamels and Lester both above 4. The bullpen though, how. They project the Cubs to have 4 relievers with an ERA under 4. The lowest ERA is Kyle Ryan with 10 IP at 3.81. The other 3 are Maples at 3.92, Chisek 3.95 and Marrow at 3.95. Duensing at 5.82 and Kintzler at 5.14 will be 5th and 6th in IP.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 13, 2019, 07:45:21 pm
Adding more bullpen depth, the Cubs have signed lefty Xavier Cedeño, sources told @TheAthleticCHI and @Ken_Rosenthal. Cedeño put up a 2.43 ERA in 48 appearances with the White Sox and Brewers last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 13, 2019, 07:52:39 pm
Cedeno has been decent, but has never thrown more than 46 innings in an MLB season. Also has huge platoon splits, so he’s a LOOGY in an era where no one wants LOOGYs anymore. Pretty underwhelming, but typical of this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 13, 2019, 07:54:05 pm
$900K non-guaranteed deal for Cedeno.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 13, 2019, 07:55:12 pm
Cedeno has OK numbers but his velocity dropoff has been rather alarming, even when you factor in that he's apparently thrown no four-seamers (only cutters) the pst two seasons.  Another depth signing, but that's clearly the game plan.  The Des Moines shuttle better keep gassed up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 14, 2019, 10:33:42 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  41m41 minutes ago

Chatwood worked with the coaches at University of the Redlands in an effort to correct a flaw in his delivery, sent videos to Maddon in offseason. Edwards said his pause/toe tap in his delivery is designed to give him more control/balance. Got idea from watching Kenley Jansen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 14, 2019, 12:07:58 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  41m41 minutes ago

Chatwood worked with the coaches at University of the Redlands in an effort to correct a flaw in his delivery, sent videos to Maddon in offseason. Edwards said his pause/toe tap in his delivery is designed to give him more control/balance. Got idea from watching Kenley Jansen.

One can always hope.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 14, 2019, 12:12:49 pm
Kenney on the new TV Network/Sinclair.

https://670thescore.radio.com/media/audio-channel/crane-kenney-cubs-new-tv-network
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 14, 2019, 01:02:21 pm
Chatwood worked with the coaches at University of the Redlands in an effort to correct a flaw in his delivery, sent videos to Maddon in offseason. Edwards said his pause/toe tap in his delivery is designed to give him more control/balance. Got idea from watching Kenley Jansen.

Fun, this is what pre-exhibition part of camp is for!  Why not hope?  Chatwood is going to be fixed; Edwards is going to be on balance and improved; Darvish is going to be healthy and terrific.  These are the kinds of things that do go right for WS teams, why not for us? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 14, 2019, 01:45:03 pm
The Cubs where using Rapsado camera's on Edwards and Chatwood's bullpens.  They can give you location, spin, MPH and movement. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 14, 2019, 02:38:10 pm
Maddon says Happ to get more opportunities at 2B during spring training. Bote primary SS backup for now.

Graveman put on 60-day DL. Roster now at 39.

MLB.com:

With Javier Baez starting the season at shortstop, the Cubs will have to sort through how to handle second base. Maddon said Daniel Descalso and Ben Zobrist will be options, but added that the Cubs plan on giving Ian Happ more of an opportunity at the position again. David Bote will offer depth at second and third, while also serving as the primary backup at shortstop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 14, 2019, 03:00:19 pm
I assumed Sinclair was nothing but more of the same, just a new name and new ownership - WRONG

Quote
The end result, however, is that the only Cubs games available to fans who rely solely on over-the-air broadcast TV after this season will be the handful on FOX-32 that are part of its network’s Major League Baseball package.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-sinclair-wscr-pat-hughes-20190214-story.html#

I wonder if this will mean the end of Go Cubs, Go with "you can catch it all on WGN".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 14, 2019, 03:29:09 pm
I assumed Sinclair was nothing but more of the same, just a new name and new ownership - WRONG

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-sinclair-wscr-pat-hughes-20190214-story.html#

I wonder if this will mean the end of Go Cubs, Go with "you can catch it all on WGN".

I believe the last line will be changed to "Make America great again".  It fits and rhymes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 14, 2019, 07:36:47 pm
I assumed Sinclair was nothing but more of the same, just a new name and new ownership - WRONG

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-sinclair-wscr-pat-hughes-20190214-story.html#

I wonder if this will mean the end of Go Cubs, Go with "you can catch it all on WGN".

Very few of the games have been on WGN for years. That hasn't reduced the popularity or the playing of Go Cubs Go.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 14, 2019, 08:26:44 pm
This defense of Sinclair - "Look at the tennis channel, it's not political" - rings incredibly hollow.  Basically, "it's perfectly fine for us to generate hundreds of millions in profit for a vile organization that's destroying local journalism as long as they don't dictate what we show between games." 

I'm sure someone will say "move this to the politics board", but sorry - there's no real distinction anymore.  The Cubs have made certain of that in myriad ways this offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 14, 2019, 09:29:19 pm
Its just baseball man.

I follow politics less than anyone in America but if you turn on the Cubs over them choosing Sinclair or what the uncle who has nothing to do with them said or how they deal with Addison Russell then you werent a real fan anyway.

Go root for another team and see how long it takes you to dig up something on them too.

Im apparently the biggest homophobe in America and what's Laura Rickett's?

Am I gonna let that take away the biggest sports love in my life?

Nope.

Just follow the baseball side and screw the rest.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 14, 2019, 09:33:34 pm
Fun, this is what pre-exhibition part of camp is for!  Why not hope?  Chatwood is going to be fixed; Edwards is going to be on balance and improved; Darvish is going to be healthy and terrific.  These are the kinds of things that do go right for WS teams, why not for us?

Every once in a while.....

I remember about this time of year in 1971 when I was listening to radio sports reports covering each team as the players reported to camp and the word was at Willie Stargell had gotten serious in the off-season and had worked out to the point that he was no longer a big, soft guy, but was really muscular and was going to crush the ball in 1971, which ended up being his true breakout year, with an OPS+ of 185, and a WAR of 7.4, up from 2.2 the year before, racking up 48 HR and starting the year on a pace which made him appear likely to leave Ruth and Maris both in the single season dust. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 14, 2019, 10:43:02 pm
This defense of Sinclair

Sinclair is going to be able to leverage the NFL so that my dad’s cable company is going to have to pick up the Cubs channel in Des Moines.  My dad hasn’t been able to get every Cubs game since the 90’s and when Fox Sports Chicago was a thing for a bit. Since WGN America dropped the Cubs games he has only been able to get the Cubs/Cardinals games and some of the ABC/WGN games. I’m happy for him and any other partner the Cubs would have chosen likely doesn’t have the pull to do it.

Do you live in a market with a Sinclair channel?  I’ve lived in multiple cities that have had Sinclair stations. The Omaha Sinclair broadcast has usually been the lowest rated and they haven’t affected the other local news channels at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 14, 2019, 10:48:15 pm
The Sinclair channel here is the last channel anyone would ever watch.

They own Ring Of Honor wrestling and that's the only reason I ever turned it on or looked for it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 14, 2019, 11:40:06 pm
It hurts too much to laugh and I'm too old to cry.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 14, 2019, 11:45:49 pm
Very few of the games have been on WGN for years. That hasn't reduced the popularity or the playing of Go Cubs Go.

Quote
On Tuesday, the team announced their broadcast schedule for the 2018 campaign which includes 45 games on WGN-TV, who will broadcast Cubs games for the 71st consecutive season. 84 games will be shown on NBC Sports Chicago with 25 coming on WLS-TV.


Not a huge number for WGN but 30% of the games not on Fox or ESPN is more than very few.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 15, 2019, 10:35:20 am
Sinclair is going to be able to leverage the NFL so that my dad’s cable company is going to have to pick up the Cubs channel in Des Moines.  My dad hasn’t been able to get every Cubs game since the 90’s and when Fox Sports Chicago was a thing for a bit. Since WGN America dropped the Cubs games he has only been able to get the Cubs/Cardinals games and some of the ABC/WGN games. I’m happy for him and any other partner the Cubs would have chosen likely doesn’t have the pull to do it.

Do you live in a market with a Sinclair channel?  I’ve lived in multiple cities that have had Sinclair stations. The Omaha Sinclair broadcast has usually been the lowest rated and they haven’t affected the other local news channels at all.

Could your father see all the games on MLB.COM in Des Moines, or is it blacked out there?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 15, 2019, 10:42:34 am
Sahadev Sharma has a very interesting article on the changes the Cubs and Chatwood are attempting to make in his delivery. They think they know why he was having such severe control problems and that these changes could possibly correct the problem.  We'll see, of course.

https://theathletic.com/819328/2019/02/15/why-the-cubs-believe-a-simplified-delivery-could-be-the-remedy-to-tyler-chatwoods-erratic-command/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 10:51:02 am
Could your father see all the games on MLB.COM in Des Moines, or is it blacked out there?

The Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, White Sox, Twins and Royals all claim Iowa as home territory and are blacked out. ESPN games that weren't on Sunday night where blacked out as well. My dad would have had to fake an IP address to use MLB.TV which he doesn't want to do.  If I grew up now, I doubt I'd be a baseball fan at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2019, 10:54:47 am
Jordan Bastian just tweeted this:

Brad Brach on his free-agency experience: "We talked to certain teams and they told us that, 'We have an algorithm and here's where you fall.' ... It's just kind of weird that all offers are the same, they come around the same time. Everybody tells you there's an algorithm."

“Algorithm.” Yeah, that’s what it is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 11:07:48 am
If I'm MLB that quote would certainly make me queasy. I could believe that a bunch of MBA's types came up with similar values for a non-elite reliever.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 11:45:32 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  41m41 minutes ago

Chatwood worked with the coaches at University of the Redlands in an effort to correct a flaw in his delivery, sent videos to Maddon in offseason. Edwards said his pause/toe tap in his delivery is designed to give him more control/balance. Got idea from watching Kenley Jansen.

Sharma had a more in depth piece on this.  He has tried to eliminate the double glove tap and after the glove tap his arm would kick out to the 3rd base side as well.  He's tried to eliminate both of those moves so that his arm and leg synchs up better which should lead to better control.  It will be interesting to see if it actually works.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 15, 2019, 11:50:51 am
Disappointed that CUBluejay apparently has me on ignore.  :-\
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 15, 2019, 11:52:49 am
Disappointed that CUBluejay apparently has me on ignore.
everyone does, except me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 11:53:24 am
Disappointed that CUBluejay apparently has me on ignore.  :-\

:(

I went back and checked to see if anyone had posted it, but I missed your post at the bottom.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 15, 2019, 11:58:52 am
Hope to heck that Chatwood gets back, especially for him personally—-but most all these pitchers who get into this horrible funk try to alter pitching mechanics, among other things.

This is from a piece about Steve Blass:

Steve Blass tried everything to get out of his abyss. He tried pitching from his knees, he tried pitching from second base, he tried pitching every night in the bullpen, he tried taking a week off, seeing if the rest helped him, watched himself on video and compared it videos when he was pitching well. He went a hypnotist and a psychologist. He learned meditation and practiced it. When a friend suggested looser underwear, he laughed with his teammates…and then he tried it. Some of these cures focused him more on the mechanics, some of them tried to take his mind off his mechanics. None of them worked.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 12:12:45 pm
I don't think anyone is saying it will work for Chatwood, however Blass looking at video and todays video is a completely different thing.  Edgetronic high speed camera can give you hand placement as you are releasing the pitch, where all Blass would see is a blur.  Combine that with Trackman, rapasodo data and it is a whole new world of pitching mechanics.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 15, 2019, 12:15:23 pm
Just look what wiggling his glove did for Ryan Dempster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 15, 2019, 12:25:28 pm
Yes, but the point is that often this isn’t about mechanics—it’s mental. Every guy who gets this thinks it’s a mechanical issue. So, they tinker with mechanics. Having more detailed information about the tinkering is often beside the point if the underlying issue is elsewhere.

At this point, premature to say what actually ails Chatwood. Maybe it IS just mechanics in his case. Let’s hope so. But, his level of wildness in 2018 makes me a bit skeptical it’s a mechanical issue, as we’ve seen similar before with other guys. Crossing fingers that 2018 was just a blip for Chatwood. Awful way to have a career implode for him. Would not wish that on anybody.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 15, 2019, 12:51:03 pm
Is a forward press in golf mental or mechanics?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2019, 01:05:21 pm
Fivethirtyeight.com's first projections have the Cubs at 84 wins and 3rd place:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-the-cubs-miss-their-chance-to-be-a-dynasty/

Fangraphs is the only site so far projecting them as best in the division.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 15, 2019, 01:08:57 pm
Could it be the yips? Yes, but you have no basis for making that argument.

Chatwood has always had horrible control with a complicated delivery.  So a mechanical flaw could have a huge impact on his ability to throw strikes. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 15, 2019, 01:38:53 pm
Could it be the yips? Yes, but you have no basis for making that argument. Chatwood has always had horrible control with a complicated delivery.  So a mechanical flaw could have a huge impact on his ability to throw strikes. 

Well, here’s one important basis.

In the 1973 season when Steve Blass blew up, his BB% was 18.5%.

In 2018, Chatwood’s BB% was 19.6%.

When a pitcher has a worse BB% than Steve Blass when Blass broke down with the yips, think there is a plausible basis to wonder if the problem is more than mechanical. True, unlike Blass, Chatwood was never a control guy, but both guys got to a level where they had to be shut down—which basically happened with Chatwood final 1/3 of 2018. You just can’t pitch in the big leagues, in any role, walking 19.6%.

Chatwood led the NL in walks in only 103 innings of work, which is one of the lowest innings total to lead a league in walks in baseball history.

As I said before, premature to know what ails Chatwood at this point. But, there are some indicators that are not good. A good bet he is also now working closely with Cubs mental skills folks, which they are not going to talk much about. A lot easier to talk about video and mechanics.

Whatever it is, let’s agree that everyone hopes it’s a mechanical issue that will be fixed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on February 15, 2019, 02:06:15 pm
Craig's gonna love the Chatwood piece...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on February 15, 2019, 02:08:07 pm
Where is the prediction thread.  Chatwood is going to lead the league in lowest walks/innings pitched this year.

Book it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 15, 2019, 02:21:38 pm
I never understood why we signed Chatwood in the first place.

He was no better than average at best before he went to hell last year.

I can understand the infatuation with Jason Heyward even though we're gonna have that crammed down our throat for years but it never made sense to want Chatwood.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 15, 2019, 02:31:40 pm
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/addison-russell-talks-media-first-time-domestic-abuse-suspension?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 15, 2019, 02:52:14 pm
Sahadev Sharma has a very interesting article on the changes the Cubs and Chatwood are attempting to make in his delivery. They think they know why he was having such severe control problems and that these changes could possibly correct the problem.  We'll see, of course.

https://theathletic.com/819328/2019/02/15/why-the-cubs-believe-a-simplified-delivery-could-be-the-remedy-to-tyler-chatwoods-erratic-command/?source=dailyemail

Thanks, Ron.  Love it!  This is what pre-game stories are for, and why hope springs eternal!  At a human level, I just totally wish for his sake that he can get things turned around and become effective.  Same for me as a Cubs fan.  *IF* he could get something resolved, the Cubs bullpen could be much helped if he turned into a useful 6th-7th inning guy.  Pen could also use a guy who could pitch two innings on occasion.  Pulling for him big-time.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 15, 2019, 04:10:37 pm
Bennett, a forward press in golf is definitely mechanical.  It's part of the pre-shot routine some golfers choose, like some hitters knock dirt off spikes before stepping in.

The forward press has a specific purpose when incorporated into the pre-shot routine and, after a while, it becomes habitual. 

Most sports psychiatrists are very intentional about helping their players build a solid pre-shot routine they can follow BOTH in practice and in games, so that:
1) practice can partially mirror actual game reps (to increase practice focus and intensity) and so
2) actual game situations feel like practice situations (in some ways) to help make the player feel at least somewhat comfortable under pressure and minimize choking.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 15, 2019, 04:18:25 pm
Here's what I think a number of us have been trying to say:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-the-cubs-miss-their-chance-to-be-a-dynasty/?addata=espn:mlb:index
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 15, 2019, 04:40:07 pm
Bennett, a forward press in golf is definitely mechanical.  It's part of the pre-shot routine some golfers choose, like some hitters knock dirt off spikes before stepping in.

The forward press has a specific purpose when incorporated into the pre-shot routine and, after a while, it becomes habitual. 

Most sports psychiatrists are very intentional about helping their players build a solid pre-shot routine they can follow BOTH in practice and in games, so that:
1) practice can partially mirror actual game reps (to increase practice focus and intensity) and so
2) actual game situations feel like practice situations (in some ways) to help make the player feel at least somewhat comfortable under pressure and minimize choking.
A forward press is mostly mechanical yet your terms of "habitual", "comfortable", and "choking" say there is a mental aspect to it.  I agree.


Ask a basketball player who bounces the ball twice before each free throw to do it three times and he'll resist.



Not really related to the discussion but ask a few golfers if they inhale or exhale as they putt and you will have some fun watching at least one of them.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 15, 2019, 08:27:21 pm
Among all players in the last 10 years with at least 850 PAs through their age 23 season, Ian Happ's 109 wRC+ ranks 21st - ahead of Ozuna, Hosmer, Rizzo, Bogaerts, J. Ramirez, Arenado, Altuve, & many more.

Six MVPs ahead of him (Trout, Stanton, Harper, Betts, McCutchen, Yelich).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2019, 09:09:27 pm
That's less impressive when you realize there are only 50 players who have had that many PA by age 23 over the last 10 seasons. It's also cherry-picked. Happ has 3.3 fWAR so far: of the 20 players with a higher wRC+ than Happ, 6.7 is the second lowest fWAR.

In fact, if you sort by fWAR, he's 34th out of the 50 players--so he's in the top 68%. Of course, fWAR comparisons aren't completely fair--everyone ahead of him had played more. But that's kind of an indictment of Happ too--everyone ahead of him was in the lineup every day. Happ hasn't shown he deserves that playing time.

I like Happ--I think he has the most upside of the Happ/Schwarber/Russell/Almora/Bote group at this point. But I think that tweet misrepresents his career so far.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on February 15, 2019, 11:23:03 pm
Here's what I think a number of us have been trying to say:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-the-cubs-miss-their-chance-to-be-a-dynasty/?addata=espn:mlb:index
Good article. (If a bit depressing.) Thanks for posting. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 16, 2019, 09:42:19 am
I grant that I'm not a statistician, nor anything close, but projections don't impress me all that much. What was the projection for the Cubs in 2015? And as others have pointed out some of the specific projections for 2018 seem patently ridiculous on their face.

The term dynasty is a fuzzy one, seems to me. What Theo has said was his goal, if I am not mistaken, is for the Cubs to be playoff team, and to go deep into the playoffs each year.  Last year was the first in four years that the Cubs did not make it to the NL Championship Series.

I think it's premature to say the Cubs have blown their opportunity for that. The Cubs vastly exceeded expectations in 2015, winning 97 games and making it to the NL Championship Series. The Cubs became World Champions in 2016, after winning 103 games.  2017 was clearly a let down year after winning the WS, though the Cubs still won 92 games and made it to the NL Championship Series again. But the last year a World Series champion won two years in a row was 2000 (the Yankees), 18 years ago. MLB has gotten more competitive since then. Last year the Cubs' offense pretty much disappeared the second half of the season, with Bryant hurt and Contreras in a deep, deep slump as significant factors - yet the Cubs still somehow won 95 games. Over those four years, no team had more regular season victories. Unless the second half of 2018 turns out to be a preview of the future (which would shock me), I wouldn't call the Cubs toast quite yet.

Let's see how the Cubs do this year, at least, before concluding that their days in the sun are over.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 16, 2019, 09:59:02 am
Yes, the Cub narrative is very negative right now:
- Russell has MAJOR issues, Joe Ricketts is a nut - Cub culture has taken a BIG hit!
- the Division is a LOT better this Feb. than in past years, particularly the Cards,
- our SPs are relatively old (and SPs break down more as they hit mid-30s),
- our RPs aren't exactly young...do we have enough good ones?
- injuries happen (e.g. KB in '18) and that makes MLB even more unpredictable,
- new coaches for pitchers and hitters, and Joe is without a contract past this year,
- the algorithms don't much like Cub chances of making playoffs!

However, there are still some very significant reasons to be hopeful for this season:
- KB appears healthy...and IF he returns to form, it will be a HUGE offensive boost!
- Javy may regress some...but still would be among the top players in the game!
- the core may just be what they were in '18, but most MLB players improve - some by a LOT (e.g. Javy) - as they gain experience and approach their late 20s,
- we have 5 proven starters, who know how to get outs, if healthy...few teams do,
- our guys have proven, against all odds, they know how to win...and not even the algorithms can read the future (or know which team will execute at crunch time) with precision!
- Theo Epstein still leads the organization (very few orgs are nearly as well run).

Little doubt it will be harder to win the Division this year, but there are many reasons to believe Cubs are still a decent a pick to get it done...again!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 16, 2019, 10:43:41 am
What was the projection for the Cubs in 2015?

Going into the 2015 season, Pecota had the Cubs at 85 wins, but with the best win total in the NL other than division leaders (top wild card). 

Going into the 2015 season, Fangraphs had the Cubs at 84 wins, also the best win total of the non-division winners in the NL (top wild card).

In general, the win totals are conservative in projections, so yeah, they were low on the win projection. That said, both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus had the Cubs projected as the preseason favorite for a wild card when most pundits covering the Cubs thought they were a year away from being a playoff contender. So I don't think it's a stretch to think Pecota might see something fans don't see.

I don't think much has to go off the rails for this team to finish around .500. The range of relatively likely outcomes includes things like Bryant continuing to struggle with his shoulder, the bullpen not having enough reliable arms, and Lester falling off a cliff. The Cubs have a roster lacking sure things in a lot of areas this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 16, 2019, 11:01:20 am
brjones, I think your post immediately above is a good one. 

The only thing I'd add is to... "The Cubs have a roster lacking sure things in a lot of areas this year"...what's also true is there are so very few sure things in MLB these days.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 16, 2019, 12:22:12 pm
I don't think much has to go off the rails for this team to finish around .500. The range of relatively likely outcomes includes things like Bryant continuing to struggle with his shoulder, the bullpen not having enough reliable arms, and Lester falling off a cliff. The Cubs have a roster lacking sure things in a lot of areas this year.

This is estentially the PECOTA projections. They have the bullpen being horrible, Bryant slugging 20 points better than last year, none of the hitters getting better and Baez regressing a fair amount.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 16, 2019, 01:07:58 pm
what's also true is there are so very few sure things in MLB these days.

Well sure...even Mike Trout isn't a sure thing. But I'm talking more in a relative sense compared to previous seasons.

Using Bryant as an example...last year at this time, I think just about everyone expected close to MVP-like performance unless there was an injury (which was unlikely based on age and past health). Now we've seen an injury, and we've seen two month-long DL stints with no results. The "sure thing" factor with Bryant is a lot lower this year.

And you can say there's a much lower "sure thing" factor with a lot of significant players this year: Darvish, Quintana, Lester, Contreras, Almora, Russell, even Morrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 16, 2019, 01:11:49 pm
....projections don't impress me all that much. ...

The term dynasty is a fuzzy one, seems to me. What Theo has said was his goal, if I am not mistaken, is for the Cubs to be playoff team, and to go deep into the playoffs each year.  Last year was the first in four years that the Cubs did not make it to the NL Championship Series.

I think it's premature to say the Cubs have blown their opportunity for that. ....
Let's see how the Cubs do this year, at least, before concluding that their days in the sun are over.

Yeah, there is so much that is unpredicatable, who can know?  Every team has injuries, but the severity is highly variable, hugely impactful, and highly unpredictable.  (Obviously a staff as old as the Cubs should be more injury prone than most; but who knows if they will have more injuries than your normal staff?) 

Agree, "dynasty" is an imprecise term.  I think "dynasty" perhaps implies being at the very top, being the best, and being so for an extended period.  Cubs were the best for 2016, and while they lost in 2015, I think they were the best for the last two months of 2015 as well.  With the youth and the chance to further improve, the prospect of being dynasty seemed plausible.  (Being the best for more than one championship). 

You mention Theo perhaps having a lesser goal than "dynasty" goal of being the best.  The goal of playoffs is a much more modest and attainable goal:  1/3 of big-league teams make the playoffs.  So if the goal is to be in the upper 3rd, the Cubs have accomplished that four years straight, and have a chance to accomplish that for a fifth consecutive season if things break favorably this summer.  I'm hoping to see that happen again!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 16, 2019, 01:13:21 pm
And who knows, it's not inconceivable that the cubs might emerge as not "just" a "got-into-the-playoffs" top-3rd team, but as the very best team in the league?   
*Other teams who might currently project to be better can have serious injuries. 
*What if Bryant somehow swings away and hits HR's with 2016 HR-production?  And emerges as a clutch RBI-hitter as well?
*What if Chatwood emerges as a fabulous shut-down reliever and pitches 70 fabulous games in relief? 
*What if Darvish pitches like the star deeg imagines him to be? 
*What if Quintana suddenly regains his 26-year-old velocity and movement and curveball command? 
*What if Happ and Schwarber bat with more of the grit and intensity and will that Theo wants from them, and suddenly they magically blossom into .270-batting-average hitters with HR's coming naturally with frequent sweet contact? 
*What if Russell not only does great at counseling and becoming a better father and person, but also actually becomes a better hitter too, and both hits .260 average AND hits 15+ HR's? 

Improbable things happen all the time in baseball.  Why not have a bunch of improbably good things converge for the Cubs, so that they are not only among the top 5 teams in the NL, but are actually the very best team and score their way into the World Series again? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 16, 2019, 01:50:37 pm
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Maddon: Mike Montgomery dealing with minor shoulder stiffness. Threw long-toss today. Back on mound hopefully within next few days.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 16, 2019, 02:29:53 pm
brjones, I think your post immediately above is a good one. 

The only thing I'd add is to... "The Cubs have a roster lacking sure things in a lot of areas this year"...what's also true is there are so very few sure things in MLB these days.

From 1951 to 1965 one of the best, and most valuable players in the game, Mickey Mantle, was also one who was never a sure thing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 16, 2019, 02:32:37 pm
 Craig - Jusy to clarify, I don't think I said Theo's goal was to "just make the playoffs," but rather to go deep into the plaoffs. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 16, 2019, 06:21:06 pm
"Blown their chance at a dynasty" does not necessarily imply "days in the sun are over'.  False dichotomy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on February 17, 2019, 06:15:48 pm
OK, so Bote looks like Schwarber now...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 17, 2019, 06:20:07 pm
OK, so Bote looks like Schwarber now...
picture?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 17, 2019, 06:22:06 pm
Ive seen it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 17, 2019, 06:38:13 pm
Post it
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 17, 2019, 06:40:00 pm
Curt, Jordan Bastian has a few pictures of Bote here:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1096906417959710720

Someone I follow on Twitter (can't remember who) pointed out that because MLB doesn't pay their minor leaguers a living wage, this was probably the first offseason Bote has had where he could just prepare for the season. Seems like there would be a huge competitive advantage if an MLB team would just spend a couple million more on minor league salaries so that minor leaguers who didn't get a huge signing bonus could work on getting better in the offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 17, 2019, 06:40:37 pm
One more: Bote standing next to Schwarber:


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzkBdYFXQAEo-rx.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 17, 2019, 07:01:50 pm
The Cubs have been providing meals to minor leaguers during the season and they have a dietician with each team doing meal planning. I have no idea what the Cubs provide during the off season for training, trainers or food.

My guess is it isn’t the food he was eating, but he likely had a better access to weight training/trainer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 17, 2019, 07:02:50 pm
Bote's apt to have Ruthian power now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 17, 2019, 07:05:16 pm
As long as he avoids Ottavino
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 17, 2019, 07:16:52 pm
Curt, Jordan Bastian has a few pictures of Bote here:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1096906417959710720

Someone I follow on Twitter (can't remember who) pointed out that because MLB doesn't pay their minor leaguers a living wage, this was probably the first offseason Bote has had where he could just prepare for the season. Seems like there would be a huge competitive advantage if an MLB team would just spend a couple million more on minor league salaries so that minor leaguers who didn't get a huge signing bonus could work on getting better in the offseason.

Could be Dabynsky from Twitter?

This is all part of MLB's antitrust exemption scam.  They're desperately clinging to their right to pay minor leaguers below minimum wage.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 17, 2019, 09:34:38 pm
One more: Bote standing next to Schwarber:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzkBdYFXQAEo-rx.jpg:small)

Typical look for a backup SS? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 17, 2019, 09:40:40 pm
Schwarber  is moving to ss?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 18, 2019, 10:41:33 am
Sahadev Sharma on Jose Quintana. What a difference a toe point makes?  And maybe a changeup?

https://theathletic.com/821853/2019/02/17/can-jose-quintana-get-off-on-the-right-foot-with-his-changeup-in-2019/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 18, 2019, 12:54:37 pm
Ricketts said this with a straight face.

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was asked why more money wasn't invested in the on-field product this off season (Bryce/Manny etc) : "That's a pretty easy question to answer. We don't have anymore."


Just say what you really mean..."We wanted to keep more profits." Don't treat us like we're stupid. The Cubs basically print money and everyone knows it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 18, 2019, 12:59:25 pm
Ricketts also said this about his father's emails in the same press conference (from the NBC Hardball Talk blog):

Those aren’t the values our family was raised with… I never heard my father say anything remotely racist.”

Ricketts reputation has really taken a hit this offseason. First he ducks the convention, then he goes on the talk radio tour where he just gets softball questions...and now he's blatantly lying and treating fans like rubes who will believe anything in his press conference.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 18, 2019, 01:09:40 pm
Ricketts said this with a straight face.

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was asked why more money wasn't invested in the on-field product this off season (Bryce/Manny etc) : "That's a pretty easy question to answer. We don't have anymore."


Just say what you really mean..."We wanted to keep more profits." Don't treat us like we're stupid. The Cubs basically print money and everyone knows it.

Do the Yankees have a lot of money?

Do the Dodgers have a lot of money?

Cubs 2019 payroll is higher than both those guys.

Cubs luxury tax payroll is currently $25 million more than any NL organization.

Even rich organizations have a budget. Not sure why that’s difficult to grasp.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 18, 2019, 01:19:59 pm
Anything is difficult to grasp if you choose not to grasp it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 18, 2019, 01:28:13 pm
Ricketts might be the most accessible-to-fans owner in MLB. In the early lean seasons, you couldn’t miss him at Wrigley. I walked up to him once and had a conversation. Tons of folks do that. Even saw him in the stands at Nationals Park a year or two ago. Never once have I seen the Nats owner near fans.

Don’t get the animosity. He has hired good baseball people and let them do their jobs. This is an organization, in my lifetime, once owned by a man totally indifferent to baseball and winning (Phil Wrigley), then a corporate entity only in baseball to make a few bucks (Trib), and then a total whack job (Zell). Ricketts comes along and in a few years delivers a World Championship. Now, with the highest payroll in the NL (and higher than the Yankees too), he’s a “blatant liar and treater of Cubs fans as rubes” to some. Give me a break.

Have a little perspective. Yes, his father is a despicable character on some important matters, but he’s a son who loves his dad. And, more importantly, he’s one terrific sports managing owner. Cubs are lucky he’s at the helm.

Look at the history. And now too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 18, 2019, 02:07:05 pm
Well said, Reb (both posts, but especially the  second one).   

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on February 18, 2019, 02:27:49 pm
Ricketts said this with a straight face.

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was asked why more money wasn't invested in the on-field product this off season (Bryce/Manny etc) : "That's a pretty easy question to answer. We don't have anymore."


Just say what you really mean..."We wanted to keep more profits." Don't treat us like we're stupid. The Cubs basically print money and everyone knows it.

I don’t understand the strategy here.  They made a huge effort, including trading away a lot of the future, to create this window.  And, now they stop trying to improve?  Was this just about winning one WS?  They could add at least another $50M in payroll this year and still make a profit. The idea that they have no money to spend is completely false.  They might not have room in the budget but that’s an arbitrary number that bears little relationship to how much money they have to spend.

Also, spare me the bullshit that your dad has nothing to do with the team. He gave you $400M to buy the **** thing so I’d say he has everything to do with it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 18, 2019, 04:35:29 pm
It really felt in many ways like we were entering into a deal with the devil to win a WS after 108 years, but based on what’s happened both with the club and in the world since, that feels a lot more literally true than one expected.

In some ways it’s almost galling that when we finally did break through, it was under the watch of people like the Ricketts. Having grown up financially struggling on the North Shore surrounded by them you meet countless people just like them - smarmy, entitled and patrician. It’s easy to see why Tom was chosen as the mouthpiece because you often saw this among siblings - one was always smiling and polite, and another was the one who bullied kids and painted the swastikas on lockers (read Dave Eggers’ “Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius” and you’ll see what I mean - we went to the same high school, and I was there when it was happening). But sometimes even the good brother slips up and you see their true colors, if you’re around them every day.

What you realize eventually is that it’s being a baseball fan that’s the actual deal with the devil. Look who we had before PTR - Sam Zell and the Tribune. Almost without exception baseball owners are awful, the same billionaire class whose greed and craven selfishness has the game, the country and the world in the mess it’s in. And in all three a big part of the problem is that the ones who are supposed to stand up to them have been outsmarted, out-organized and outdone at every turn. The players are talking a big game now, but will they have the steel to hold their nerve and insist on real change when the chips are down? The owners will do everything in their power to rig the system, loot the game and destroy their opposition before the next CBA negotiations start.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on February 18, 2019, 04:51:58 pm
While I hope some super clever investigative reporter (with cred.) is thoroughly investigating potential collusion issues by MLB owners, I'll agree with Reb and Ron that we are lucky to have Tom Ricketts, as Reb stated quite well!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 18, 2019, 05:01:37 pm
One of the things I noted with horror is the mention in some free agent signings that all the similar offers came attached to the phrase, "our algorithms" came up with this amount.  I hate it.  I hate that computers are determining positioning on the field, are dictating who plays and who plays where, and now we, the players, the owners, and the front offices are becoming slaves to the analytics game.   Stops being a game.  It's becoming an autobot battle.

Is it collusion...I would say yes, of sorts.  Especially if the owners are sharing input data. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 18, 2019, 05:22:17 pm
This is one of those discussions where both sides are making valid points.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 18, 2019, 09:19:00 pm
Sahadev Sharma on Jose Quintana. What a difference a toe point makes?  And maybe a changeup?

https://theathletic.com/821853/2019/02/17/can-jose-quintana-get-off-on-the-right-foot-with-his-changeup-in-2019/?source=dailyemail

Thanks, Ron, love it!  Hottovy sounds good and practical. 

When it comes to corrective adjustments, I am much more believing in those made by pitchers than hitters.  So I like these pitcher-adjustment stories. 

Bote said that he's only 2-3 pounds bigger than before.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 18, 2019, 09:31:56 pm
Bote said that he's only 2-3 pounds bigger than before.   

The pictures disagree.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 18, 2019, 10:26:50 pm
Thanks, Ron, love it!  Hottovy sounds good and practical. 

When it comes to corrective adjustments, I am much more believing in those made by pitchers than hitters.  So I like these pitcher-adjustment stories. 

Bote said that he's only 2-3 pounds bigger than before.   


Schwarber certainly looks trimmer, fitter than Bote. Which surprised me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 19, 2019, 12:05:25 am
Rizzo looks like he lost a lot of weight too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 19, 2019, 12:34:59 am
I still believe in Schwarber tremendously.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 19, 2019, 02:09:17 am
I’ve seen him in person -  no question he exists.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 19, 2019, 08:21:01 am
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-tom-ricketts-father-emails-apology-20190218-story,amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 19, 2019, 08:56:07 am
It really felt in many ways like we were entering into a deal with the devil to win a WS after 108 years, but based on what’s happened both with the club and in the world since, that feels a lot more literally true than one expected.

In some ways it’s almost galling that when we finally did break through, it was under the watch of people like the Ricketts. Having grown up financially struggling on the North Shore surrounded by them you meet countless people just like them - smarmy, entitled and patrician. It’s easy to see why Tom was chosen as the mouthpiece because you often saw this among siblings - one was always smiling and polite, and another was the one who bullied kids and painted the swastikas on lockers (read Dave Eggers’ “Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius” and you’ll see what I mean - we went to the same high school, and I was there when it was happening). But sometimes even the good brother slips up and you see their true colors, if you’re around them every day.

What you realize eventually is that it’s being a baseball fan that’s the actual deal with the devil. Look who we had before PTR - Sam Zell and the Tribune. Almost without exception baseball owners are awful, the same billionaire class whose greed and craven selfishness has the game, the country and the world in the mess it’s in. And in all three a big part of the problem is that the ones who are supposed to stand up to them have been outsmarted, out-organized and outdone at every turn. The players are talking a big game now, but will they have the steel to hold their nerve and insist on real change when the chips are down? The owners will do everything in their power to rig the system, loot the game and destroy their opposition before the next CBA negotiations start.

^^Projection can do nasty things to a person, or at least to a person's view of the rest of the world.^^
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 19, 2019, 09:01:44 am
I don’t understand the strategy here.  They made a huge effort, including trading away a lot of the future, to create this window.  And, now they stop trying to improve?  Was this just about winning one WS?  They could add at least another $50M in payroll this year and still make a profit. The idea that they have no money to spend is completely false.  They might not have room in the budget but that’s an arbitrary number that bears little relationship to how much money they have to spend.

Occams razor would suggest that it is not just the strategy which you don't understand, but also the situation.

If in fact the Cubs really could reliably "add at least another $50M in payroll this year and still make a profit," it is hard to imagine that they would not do so, that they would not offer Harper a one year deal for the biggest payday ever.

So what is the reasonable conclusion?

Here's a clue -- it is NOT just that you do not understand the strategy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 19, 2019, 01:52:21 pm
Rizzo has really lost some weight. I can't link the tweet. ???

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 19, 2019, 02:25:10 pm
Ricketts said this with a straight face.

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was asked why more money wasn't invested in the on-field product this off season (Bryce/Manny etc) : "That's a pretty easy question to answer. We don't have anymore."


Just say what you really mean..."We wanted to keep more profits." Don't treat us like we're stupid. The Cubs basically print money and everyone knows it.

I didn't know that.  How much did they print?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 19, 2019, 02:49:39 pm
I didn't know that.  How much did they print?

I think they call money that you print yourself “stupid money”——like the Phillies owner talked about a couple months ago.

Not sure if you’re allowed to spend it, however.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 19, 2019, 02:50:51 pm
Machado is a very talented, productive player for sure.  But not counting his hot half with Baltimore, his OPS's have otherwise been .825, .782, .876, .861, .755, .746 over the last six seasons.  And he's not a defensive stud or anything. 

There has been much talk about free agent signings being delayed, with blame being assigned to the owners. 
If Machado received $300 offers in January but didn't sign, I'm not sure it's really compelling to place blame for "delays" on the owners? 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on February 19, 2019, 02:56:51 pm
Yeah, $300M for a guy who's been a good, not great player, and has other non-production red flags all around him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on February 19, 2019, 02:58:23 pm
Quote
For all the conversation about the FA market collapsing: Manny Machado got the $300 million he wanted. Bryce Harper is going to get more. The top end of the market itself isn't necessarily the problem. Watching it move like molasses, though, has not been a good look for baseball.


https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1097955072741380098
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on February 19, 2019, 03:13:54 pm
Machado has 32 bWAR over past six seasons.

That’s an elite player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 19, 2019, 03:26:50 pm
Screw OPSs and WARs.

Machado hit .297,37,107,with 14 steals last year.

If those other stats say this player isnt elite it shows how off base they are.

Ill take Machado over Harper every day of the week.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 19, 2019, 06:38:58 pm
Cubs ZiPS projections will be out tomorrow, and here's the WAR preview. The system is pretty optimistic on the starting rotation. It adds up to a total of 43.9 WAR, which projects them right around 88-90 wins, I think.


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzzxlXAXcAAQj-p.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 19, 2019, 11:17:12 pm
br

Edwards might have to go back to being known as CJ
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on February 20, 2019, 10:23:46 am
Brutal that our OF projects as below avg across the board and we can't go after Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on February 20, 2019, 10:32:44 am
“Can't"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 20, 2019, 10:39:48 am
I'll take the over on the OF production.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/02/18/ben-zobrists-absence-from-camp-sparks-further-speculation/

Cubs Insider is speculating that Zobrist's absence isn't personal and could be a precursor to a trade and that the Cubs could look to reallocate is money to Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 20, 2019, 12:27:21 pm
Kimbrel doesn't seem like a Theo-like move. He never goes after the big money relievers in free agency.

I think the Schwarber projection is a little low, but I don't think ZiPS is far off of CF/RF. If they free up some money, it would be nice if they'd figure out a way to improve the outfield.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on February 20, 2019, 12:28:33 pm
Too bad there aren’t any young outfielders that are available and affordable for billionaires.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 20, 2019, 12:35:10 pm
Kimbrel doesn't seem like a Theo-like move. He never goes after the big money relievers in free agency.

I think the Schwarber projection is a little low, but I don't think ZiPS is far off of CF/RF. If they free up some money, it would be nice if they'd figure out a way to improve the outfield.

I think Almora/Happ can put up 2 WAR in CF.  Schwarber seems light.  Heyward seems fair.  Schwarber, Almora/Heyward, Harper would look a lot better though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 20, 2019, 12:45:20 pm
Harper would look a lot better though.
So would Eloy Jiminez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 20, 2019, 12:58:03 pm
Trading Zobrist and signing Kimbrel seems pretty unlikely to me.  Pretty good chance that Zobrist's "personal reasons" delay is for personal reasons, and there's nothing more going on here. 

But yeah, I'd have to say I'd be OK with exchanging Kimbrel for Zobrist.  Having a great and deep pen would be pretty nice.  I'm imagining an ideal world where Chatwood finds reasonable control and becomes an excellent 6th/7th inning guy.  Where Edwards is in a little better place, both velocity and control, and where he's pretty tough.  Where good-Strop is back and nasty, and throwing strikes consistently enough.  Where by May Morrow is back and is good, and stays available.  Where Kimbrel is added and is the really nasty guy he's been in past.  Maybe by July Alzolay is pretty nasty in a relief role, too?  Where both Brach and Cishek are good.  Maybe at some point Allen Webster turns out to be pretty good, too? 

Would be fun to have the bullpen be a huge and consistent strength; where if you're tied or winning after 5 innings, that you expect to win every time. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 20, 2019, 03:18:35 pm
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20190219/is-darvish-feeling-good-after-throwing-batting-practice-yu-bet

Darvish says he's feeling good.  Made reference to needing to give 100% effort last year to even get to 90-91.  Not sure if that's actually true, but his self-perception is that he's faster now with more ease. 

Miles implies that Schwarber, Russell, and Almora didn't hit anything hard off him. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 20, 2019, 03:32:47 pm
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-kris-bryant-shoulder-20190218-story.html

Bryant says his shoulder is great, actually stronger now than his right shoulder, and that he's unlimited. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 20, 2019, 04:30:45 pm
Guys that have had health problems in the past and say that they are currently healthy is not necessarily a sign that their problems are all behind them.

However, it is probably a better sign than saying that they are still in pain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 21, 2019, 02:29:15 am
Jen Ho Tseng will start the ST opener Saturday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 21, 2019, 08:21:13 am
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20190220/botes-not-basking-hes-tasking-in-bid-to-stick-with-chicago-cubs

Bote, likable guy for sure.  Hit <.200 over August-September.  Talks about how he knows pitchers were killing him with fastballs up.  AFter which he then couldn't hit the down stuff either. 

Got to be so tough, once pitchers know you can't hit the up stuff, so easy to imagine getting that so in your head and being so wishful of handling that then you're guessing wrong and in between and not killing the down stuff either.  Probably big challenge for all three of Bote, Happ, and Schwarber that way.  All really struggled with fastball waist-high or higher, it seemed. 

HOpefully all three somehow get better with those pitches, and maybe hit more HR's on them when they guess right, or if a pitcher isn't perfect in location.  Think you probably need to kill some of them so that pitchers can't attack there so confidently and risklessly.  And I'd imagine for a hitter, it could maybe settle your mind and confidence if you are able to punish some of those pitches periodically. 

Still, not sure how it will go for Bote.  Hit .239 last year with everything going magically for him, and before pitchers had the book on him; wouldn't really shock if he never hit above .220 again.  But hopefully that isn't the case, and he can hit .250 or better.  With his walks and power, at .250 he could be pretty valuable. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 21, 2019, 08:41:18 am
Quote
Hit .239 last year with everything going magically for him, and before pitchers had the book on him; wouldn't really shock if he never hit above .220 again.

You know, it's Spring Training, and it's supposed to be sunshine and rainbows and optimism everywhere.  That new toe tap is going to turn Chatwood into a Cy Young contender, and Darvish is already looking like his old self and mowing down the likes of Russell and Almora in batting practice, etc.

But can we have these nice things?  No we can't because craig's already at it again trying to Nitro Nic the career of another young blossoming player who worked his butt off to add muscle this offseason and who would probably hit like Scott Rolen this year if only we had a spot in the lineup for him. 

Poor David Bote who had to work his butt off just to get to the majors and work even harder to be a physical freak coming into this spring, and now because of craig, he very likely won't ever hit .220 again sadly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 21, 2019, 08:49:03 am
The league adjusted to Bote and he has to adjust back now. Even if he is a .220 hitter with power and above average defense it makes him a nice back up option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 21, 2019, 11:56:36 am
You know, it's Spring Training, and it's supposed to be sunshine and rainbows and optimism everywhere.  That new toe tap is going to turn Chatwood into a Cy Young contender, and Darvish is already looking like his old self and mowing down the likes of Russell and Almora in batting practice, etc.

But can we have these nice things?  No we can't because craig's already at it again trying to Nitro Nic the career of another young blossoming player who worked his butt off to add muscle this offseason and who would probably hit like Scott Rolen this year if only we had a spot in the lineup for him. 

Poor David Bote who had to work his butt off just to get to the majors and work even harder to be a physical freak coming into this spring, and now because of craig, he very likely won't ever hit .220 again sadly.

There is still hope.  The CraigCurse doesn't really go into effect until he names one of his children after the prospect.  Bote should pray that Mrs. Craig doesn't get pregnant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 21, 2019, 01:35:47 pm
Martin Maldonado is "holding out hope" for a major league deal?

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/02/21/just-saying-martin-maldonado-is-holding-out-hope-for-a-big-league-deal/

If the Cubs don't get him and he ends up signing a minor league deal, it'll be a big missed opportunity to improve the team by as much as a couple wins.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 21, 2019, 04:40:28 pm
Martin Maldonado is "holding out hope" for a major league deal?

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/02/21/just-saying-martin-maldonado-is-holding-out-hope-for-a-big-league-deal/

If the Cubs don't get him and he ends up signing a minor league deal, it'll be a big missed opportunity to improve the team by as much as a couple wins.

Purple impaired?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 21, 2019, 08:09:11 pm
Chatwood is starting Sunday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on February 21, 2019, 08:28:15 pm
Sunday would be a fine time to put a loaded revolver in your mouth and pull the trigger.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 21, 2019, 08:30:33 pm
Over a ST game?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 21, 2019, 10:15:19 pm
https://theathletic.com/829458/2019/02/21/is-that-albert-almora-jr-putting-on-a-batting-practice-show-at-sloan-park/

Almora hitting the ball hard, driving it, an adjustment he's made. 

With Darvish terrific, Quintana's adjustment to be back to his prime, Chatwood simplifying his delivery so he can be decent, Bryant's shoulder stronger than ever and ready to hit with power, and now Almora ready to burst out with some power, look out Loretta!  It's going to be a great season.  And that's not even to mention the jump in OBP that's coming for Baez. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 21, 2019, 10:22:56 pm
Now that's the spring training craig we've all grown to know and love!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on February 22, 2019, 07:04:43 am
HEY KOOLAID!!

OH YEAH!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 22, 2019, 07:17:43 am
Something seems off with the Fangraphs projections.

They project the Cubs at 80-82.  Cubs hitters with 29.6 WAR, Cubs pitchers with 14.9 WAR.  (SP 4.06 ERA, RP 3.73 ERA).
They project the Brewers at 87-75.  Brewers hitters with 23.8 WAR, Brewers pitchers with 12.1 WAR (SP 4.60 ERA, RP 3.70 ERA)

They have the Cubs -15 RDiff and Brewers with +54. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 22, 2019, 08:00:19 am
They also have Boston 12 games behind the Yankees and Cleveland below .500.  Something went haywire in there somewheres.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 22, 2019, 09:00:51 am
https://theathletic.com/829458/2019/02/21/is-that-albert-almora-jr-putting-on-a-batting-practice-show-at-sloan-park/

Almora hitting the ball hard, driving it, an adjustment he's made. 

With Darvish terrific, Quintana's adjustment to be back to his prime, Chatwood simplifying his delivery so he can be decent, Bryant's shoulder stronger than ever and ready to hit with power, and now Almora ready to burst out with some power, look out Loretta!  It's going to be a great season.  And that's not even to mention the jump in OBP that's coming for Baez. 

I might to be able to believe all but the last.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 22, 2019, 01:32:15 pm
Over a ST game?

Don't get in the man's way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 23, 2019, 10:06:00 am
https://theathletic.com/833840/2019/02/23/im-looking-to-the-sky-for-an-answer-a-conversation-with-new-cubs-hitting-coach-anthony-iapoce/

Lengthy interview with new hitting coach.  Seems like a nice guy.  Not super concise, and mostly sounds like a mental guy, didn't speak at all to mechanics.  Pretty much emphasized self-confidence and not worrying about bad AB's or slumps. 

So, maybe kind of anti-Theo?  Poc seems to suggest "trying too hard" as explanation for all hitting struggles; Theo suggested lack of urgency and intensity as his primary explanation. 

I did think Iapoce had a good insight, into spending so much attention on your weaknesses that you forget what it was you were good at.  I think that might be a factor for Russell, for example.  If your single strength as a hitter is occasionally pulling HR's, maybe he should try to pull HR's, and get 20 of those, rather than spending all his focus on trying to fly out to the opposite field? 

Anyway, new guy sounds nice and positive enough, and perhaps the guys will respond well.  Doesn't sound like he'll necessarily have any genius analysis or mechanical insights, though.  If he had any thoughts on particular hitters or adjustments they might make, he didn't share any of those other than to not worry. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 23, 2019, 10:35:21 am
I don’t think it necessarily conflicts with what Theo was critical of. Theo was upset with the attitude of, “We are the Cubs, it will work out.”   Poce was not wanting guys to push when they are struggling, which I think is a different circumstance. Coming to the ball park with this game is important vs if I just tinker with this it will be good again.

It was touched on a little bit in the article, but each hitter has an off season hitting coach that they are working with. So having a hitting coach that is saying you need to do it this way, isn’t ideal anymore. Poce was the Cubs minor league hitting coordinator and comes from the Maliee tree of launch angle so I think he can definitely adjust mechanics as needed. I do wonder if the Cubs broke Heyward with trying to get him into hitting more like Rizzo his first year, so I kinda like the idea of having some flexibility in the coaches philosophy instead of this is way it is done.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on February 25, 2019, 05:47:34 pm
ChicagoSports  46m46 minutes ago

Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber has reverted to his old batting stance, which features him in more of a crouch with his knees bent.

“I finally said, ‘screw this.’ I’m going to go back to being simple. Squat, put the foot down and go hit.”

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0STC_ZX4AEOlLi.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 25, 2019, 06:35:41 pm
Boras' favorite reporter drops the Cubs name on the radio:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/02/25/heyman-cubs-have-checked-in-on-harper-but-remain-a-long-shot-so-dont-do-this-to-yourself/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on February 25, 2019, 07:36:29 pm
ChicagoSports  46m46 minutes ago

Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber has reverted to his old batting stance, which features him in more of a crouch with his knees bent.

“I finally said, ‘screw this.’ I’m going to go back to being simple. Squat, put the foot down and go hit.”

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0STC_ZX4AEOlLi.jpg:small)

Very interesting.  I wonder how that will work?  Maybe it will help.  But I'd think starting low could actually make him even more vulnerable to stuff above thigh-high?  Thought he struggles with stuff that wasn't pretty low already; not sure going low might not make it worse.  But what do I know, hope it helps him and he rips a bunch of hard-hit balls and HR's. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 26, 2019, 02:09:06 pm
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Jason Heyward a late scratch from the Cubs’ lineup vs. D-backs for “personal reasons,” per club.


"Personal reasons." Let the conspiracy theories begin.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on February 26, 2019, 04:01:27 pm
Yankees beat writer:

Randy Miller @RandyJMiller
For what it’s worth, my source who is close to Bryce Harper tells me #Dodgers and #Cubs were 1st choices all along and he prefers not to sign with #Phillies. I’ve been hearing all winter that Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics and quirky personality


If true, it's really frustrating that the Cubs haven't been involved.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 26, 2019, 04:02:49 pm
If Gabe Kapler is one of the hang ups on that, the Phillies should have fired him a long time ago.  He's definitely not a good enough manager to keep around if he's scaring off top FA's like Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 26, 2019, 04:04:43 pm
Good thing the Cubs and Dodgers don’t use analytics and that the Cubs have a non-quirky manager.

It does seem like Bryce would prefer to avoid Philly though unless it is the only option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 26, 2019, 04:15:26 pm
Here is a fun thought experiment. 

Who would you rather have?

SP- Darvish, Hamels OF- Heyward, Almora/Happ
SP- Chacin, Montgomery OF- Harper, Heyward/Almora/Happ

I think the money would work out to be about even for both options.  As much as I'd love to have Harper, I think there is a decent argument that option 1 is better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 26, 2019, 04:37:13 pm
Apparently Yu said he worked so hard in his English because the Cubs told him the translator was too expensive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on February 26, 2019, 05:48:12 pm
Harper's gonna show up Dexter Fowler style any day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 26, 2019, 09:13:00 pm
Ricketts' attempt to take out Tunney appears to have failed miserably - he's at 63% and their handpicked proxy is in third place at 11%.  If there was any chance he was going to lose, the Rcketts going all-in to defeat him probably doomed it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on February 26, 2019, 09:23:55 pm
Yankees beat writer:

Randy Miller @RandyJMiller
For what it’s worth, my source who is close to Bryce Harper tells me #Dodgers and #Cubs were 1st choices all along and he prefers not to sign with #Phillies. I’ve been hearing all winter that Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics and quirky personality


If true, it's really frustrating that the Cubs haven't been involved.

Assuming that the report is true, and Harper really wanted to sign with the Cubs, what difference does that make?  There is no indication that Harper would be willing to sign with the Cubs for less than the 30 million per year that he has reportedly already turned down.  And if he REALLY wants to play for the Cubs, and is willing to sign for substantially less, why has his agent not contacted the Cubs to let them know?

I would love to have a Rolls Royce, but I have never gone to a dealer to offer what I could afford.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 26, 2019, 09:24:49 pm
Ricketts' attempt to take out Tunney appears to have failed miserably - he's at 63% and their handpicked proxy is in third place at 11%.  If there was any chance he was going to lose, the Rcketts going all-in to defeat him probably doomed it.

Tunney is a machine hack. He had a good reform opponent who would have had a good chance but for the high profile dishonest claim that he was a Ricketts candidate (yeah, the one coming in third was the actually Ricketts candidate).  Too bad.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 26, 2019, 09:41:39 pm
Yes, he's a machine hack. The salient point here is that if Ricketts wanted to defeat him, the best thing he could have done was enthusiastically endorse him.  At this point that name is the kiss of death in Chicago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 26, 2019, 09:46:07 pm
Tunney won in 2015 with 67% of the vote, I don’t think the Ricketts did much to improve his election chances.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 26, 2019, 09:54:40 pm
Tunney won in 2015 with 67% of the vote, I don’t think the Ricketts did much to improve his election chances.

You don't live in the 44th Ward of Chicago. I do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 26, 2019, 10:15:45 pm
On the other hand, Ron, Daley didn't even make the runoff so it wasn't exactly a banner night for machine hacks in Chicago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on February 26, 2019, 10:19:41 pm
It true that I don’t live anywhere near Chicago. How many incumbents lost re-election for alderman?  The only other one I’ve heard of is Ed Burke. He won re-election facing federal extortion charges.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on February 26, 2019, 10:23:17 pm
Assuming that the report is true, and Harper really wanted to sign with the Cubs, what difference does that make?  There is no indication that Harper would be willing to sign with the Cubs for less than the 30 million per year that he has reportedly already turned down.  And if he REALLY wants to play for the Cubs, and is willing to sign for substantially less, why has his agent not contacted the Cubs to let them know?

I would love to have a Rolls Royce, but I have never gone to a dealer to offer what I could afford.
But what if he signed for 5 mil next year and 35M a year for the next nine?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 27, 2019, 12:04:15 am
On the other hand, Ron, Daley didn't even make the runoff so it wasn't exactly a banner night for machine hacks in Chicago.

Wrong topic, but I couldn't be more happy with the results in the Mayoral primary.  If elected, Lori would be easily the best, most independent, most progressive Mayor in the history of the City. Preckwinkle would have been my second choice (way behind Lori, but way ahead of others).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on February 27, 2019, 12:15:07 am
It true that I don’t live anywhere near Chicago. How many incumbents lost re-election for alderman?  The only other one I’ve heard of is Ed Burke. He won re-election facing federal extortion charges.

Again, wrong topic, but yeah, Burke won (though his future is in grave doubt in the courts). But the machine guy who replaced him as head of the powerful Finance Committee, Patrick O'Connor, is facing a runoff (getting only 33% of the vote), and a number of other incumbents did lose or face runoffs as a result of the election today. There is reason to hope that the City Council be closer to a real legislature than any time in its history.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on February 27, 2019, 05:48:43 am
Wrong topic, but I couldn't be more happy with the results in the Mayoral primary.  If elected, Lori would be easily the best, most independent, most progressive Mayor in the history of the City. Preckwinkle would have been my second choice (way behind Lori, but way ahead of others).

Lightfoot would definitely have been my first choice as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 27, 2019, 07:40:07 am
Yes, he's a machine hack. The salient point here is that if Ricketts wanted to defeat him, the best thing he could have done was enthusiastically endorse him.  At this point that name is the kiss of death in Chicago.

I have often wondered about that sort of thinking.

If true, and we assume Ricketts is not an idiot, then why not endorse Tunney, since doing so would be "the kiss of death in Chicago"?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on February 27, 2019, 07:41:10 am
I would love to have a Rolls Royce, but I have never gone to a dealer to offer what I could afford.

What a fool.... you probably could have picked up a Rolls for a couple of hundred bucks if you had just made the offer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on February 28, 2019, 10:21:52 am
Jason Heyward's personal matter appears to be resolved...

Quote
Jason Heyward is back in the Cubs' Cactus League lineup on Thursday.
Heyward was away from camp for a couple of days to deal with a personal matter. He is starting in right field and batting seventh against the Athletics.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 02, 2019, 09:36:58 am
https://theathletic.com/844768/2019/03/01/willson-contreras-might-have-already-fixed-his-power-and-framing-issues/?source=weeklyemail

Contreras adjustment to his swing that's going to help him.
Contreras mechanical adjustment to his catching that's going to help his framing.  (Suggested by his younger brother in the Braves system.) 

Having Contreras be a force with the bat, and making some improvement on the anti-awful scale in framing, would both be really, really helpful. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 03, 2019, 01:41:11 pm
Sharma on Schwarber.

https://theathletic.com/847412/2019/03/03/crouching-schwarber-hidden-slugger-has-a-cubs-hitter-found-what-hes-been-missing/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 03, 2019, 03:47:04 pm
Watched Schwarber go to opposite field against a lefty in first two ABs on Friday. First was the RBI single that Sharma references in his piece and the second was a well-hit ball caught to left-center. Both good pieces of situational hitting.

Obviously, what Schwarber does, one way or the other, will have a significant impact on Cubs offense. It’s spring, so time to be hopeful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 03, 2019, 04:17:58 pm
Darvish is apparently throwing the split again, which is interesting on multiple levels. He stopped because of elbow worries, but it was arguably his best pitch. Certainly it’s hugely important against lefties.

If there’s one guy who’s key in not regressing significantly this season after standing pat, it’s probably not Bryant but Yu. He gave us basically nothing last year and if he’s healthy is the team’s best pitcher.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 03, 2019, 05:27:39 pm
Yeah, agree that Darvish is the key guy overall.

Again, it’s spring. So, time to be hopeful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 04, 2019, 08:36:49 am
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/yu-darvish-says-he-currently-has-best-stuff-my-life

:):):)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 04, 2019, 08:43:41 am
Darvish is apparently throwing the split again, which is interesting on multiple levels. He stopped because of elbow worries, but it was arguably his best pitch. Certainly it’s hugely important against lefties....

Thanks, deeg, that's really interesting.  My recall from last year is that while he got K's, that sometimes even when he got to 2 strikes, he gave up a lot of foul balls, and it sometimes drove up his pitch count trying to finish a guy off.  A splitter might be an extra option as a putaway pitch, particularly as you note versus lefties. 

HOpe it works!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 04, 2019, 09:06:13 am
Thanks, deeg, that's really interesting.  My recall from last year is that while he got K's, that sometimes even when he got to 2 strikes, he gave up a lot of foul balls, and it sometimes drove up his pitch count trying to finish a guy off.  A splitter might be an extra option as a putaway pitch, particularly as you note versus lefties. 

HOpe it works!
It is generally agreed that pitchers with high strikeout totals run up higher pitch counts.


If a pitcher who does not strike out a lot of hitters gives up 2 strike foul balls before putting the hitter away doesn't that mean his pitch count might be even higher than the strikeout guy?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 04, 2019, 09:40:03 am
Perhaps?  Not sure, depends on how many foul balls they give up, and on how many chase pitches you throw?  Either way, I guess, 2-strike foul balls don't get outs and do raise pitch counts. :)  So a swing-and-miss pitch is probably more valuable for any pitcher than a swing-and-foul pitch! 

And sometimes a swing-and-make-soft-contact pitch might be just fine, too. 

I have no idea.  I just know that it's not uncommon for a pitcher to get ahead 1-2, but then to need ≥5 more pitches to resolve the AB. A chase pitch for ball 2; a foul; a chase pitch for ball 3; another foul; etc..  **IF** one of those fouls instead is swing-and-miss, you might get the out more consistently, AND save some pitches and some stress! 

I also think there may sometimes be some occasional value in dispensing with the chase pitches and throwing a 2-strike strike?   If a guy is going into B-Hack mode at 1-2 anyway, maybe throwing a strike and allowing some soft B-Hack contact is sometimes worth resolving the AB immediately?   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on March 04, 2019, 03:14:57 pm
WSCR 670 interview with Bryant this morning

https://omny.fm/shows/670-the-score/cubs-kris-bryant-on-2019-expectations
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 04, 2019, 03:31:25 pm
Apparently the delay on Brach was because his contract was altered after "medical review".

Brach also had some interesting things to say about the nature of coincidence:

Quote
"It was stressful and it kinda dragged on forever," Brach said Friday morning at Cubs camp. "You hear about interest in the first week and then you don't get offers until late December, January and you're just kinda wondering what's going on. Teams say they like you, but they're not making you any offers. Then you finally get offers and 6 or 7 teams are giving you the same offer.

"It's just a weird process and nobody really knows what's going on right now. Obviously I would've liked the experience to have been a little better. I'm just glad to be here now and glad it's over with for at least this year and hope to pitch well enough to be here again next year."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 04, 2019, 03:34:14 pm
Apparently the delay on Brach was because his contract was altered after "medical review".


Scene from Brach's medical review...


(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/e1/e1bb2397fdfdaf5ab49a377cb9a823624b2a21195ab35f7bb9a2f5eb33c60931.jpg)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 04, 2019, 03:41:09 pm
Brach also had some interesting things to say about the nature of coincidence:

Sounds similar to the complaints that Francisco Liriano and Mark Reynolds had.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 04, 2019, 03:42:14 pm
Countdown to the shills for the owners speaking up has already started.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 04, 2019, 04:04:34 pm
Brach already said that about the offers when it was first announced he signed. 

Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
 Feb 15
More
Brad Brach on his free-agency experience: "We talked to certain teams and they told us that, 'We have an algorithm and here's where you fall.' ... It's just kind of weird that all offers are the same, they come around the same time. Everybody tells you there's an algorithm."

Just in case you forgot when it was previously discussed, post 1876 in this very topic. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 04, 2019, 05:30:26 pm
(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/22/227771a592e0f1f8737aa92d58a326df4c5205214d627bc642001b3f58fd22b8.jpg)
.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 04, 2019, 05:50:29 pm
I was too busy drinking Pappy Van Winkle with Pete Ricketts as he regaled me on stories about how he picked on poor kids growing up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 04, 2019, 06:11:18 pm
I was too busy drinking Pappy Van Winkle with Pete Ricketts as he regaled me on stories about how he picked on poor kids growing up.

Last time I was in Chicago, I went to this place called Barrelhouse Flat that had Pappy Van Winkle old fashioned's at a downright reasonable price.  I liked that place quite a bit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on March 04, 2019, 06:53:45 pm
Last time I was in Chicago, I went to this place called Barrelhouse Flat that had Pappy Van Winkle old fashioned's at a downright reasonable price.  I liked that place quite a bit.

Hopefully you stopped at Delilah’s down the street from BF
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 04, 2019, 07:15:21 pm
Last time I was in Chicago, I went to this place called Barrelhouse Flat that had Pappy Van Winkle old fashioned's at a downright reasonable price.  I liked that place quite a bit.

Pappy is on my bucket list. My fear is I’d see the cost and my cheapness would kick in. I might have to stop by this place and Deliah’s when we go to Chicago this summer on the way to Grand Rapids.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on March 04, 2019, 07:24:16 pm
Pappy is on my bucket list. My fear is I’d see the cost and my cheapness would kick in. I might have to stop by this place and Deliah’s when we go to Chicago this summer on the way to Grand Rapids.

Did your wife come to Chicago that day when we had the LSD protest?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 04, 2019, 07:43:32 pm
They did.  I think they left a little earlier than they originally planned to and didn’t have any problems.

I flew up that night and got stuck in Ohare past midnight. My connecting flight from Ohare to Grand Rapids was delayed and then when it landed they had a medical emergency.  Finding a place to charge your phone was rough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 04, 2019, 09:02:50 pm
Pappy is on my bucket list. My fear is I’d see the cost and my cheapness would kick in. I might have to stop by this place and Deliah’s when we go to Chicago this summer on the way to Grand Rapids.

Me and a couple of buddies went in together to get a pappy's in Vegas once just to say we all tried it.  Split the cost.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 04, 2019, 09:28:02 pm
My sister-in-law lives in a smaller Florida town and the Pappy website listed a liquor store as selling Paapy. I talked my mother-in-law into seeing if she could get a bottle for me. They guy said it was going to be $500 and I backed out, but my mother-in-law swears it was a clear.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on March 04, 2019, 09:38:49 pm
We went through a bottle of 10 year old Pappy at Christmas.

Good stuff, for sure, but all things considered, give me a bottle of Blanton's any day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 04, 2019, 09:56:16 pm
10 YO ain't Pappy, it's just Old Rip.  But then everything with VW in the name is just hype for the taters to chase.

Still - who the hell would use Pappy to make an old fashioned?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on March 04, 2019, 10:16:36 pm
Correct...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 04, 2019, 10:38:09 pm
I admit I'm an inveterate Wild Turkey fanboy from way back, but Russell's Reserve Single Barrel store picks are the best deal in bourbon right now.  I love dusty hunting as much as the next guy but that shitt gets expensive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 04, 2019, 11:21:13 pm
I honestly don't drink.

My wife bought me a bourbon and coke last Summer at the beach and I was drunk for hours.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 04, 2019, 11:51:55 pm

Hopefully you stopped at Delilah’s down the street from BF


Crap, no I didn't, but now that I know about it, I wish I had.  My friend and I pretty much went from Barrelhouse Flat to Lou Malnati's before one of the Pearl Jam Wrigley shows '16.  That place does sound pretty awesome though.  Will definitely need to check it out next time!


Still - who the hell would use Pappy to make an old fashioned?


That's a very valid point, but I love drinking old fashioned's.  I guess that explains why that's about the only place I've ever seen one.  Besides if they have a Pappy old fashioned and I don't have to take out a second mortgage to have one, why not? 


Good stuff, for sure, but all things considered, give me a bottle of Blanton's any day.


Right there with you, Blanton's is my bourbon of choice too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 05, 2019, 08:56:05 am
Clearly we need a new topic devoted to drinking whiskey, or whatever it is this discussion has been about the last day or so.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 05, 2019, 09:07:15 am
Interesting Paul Sullivan story


Quote
Another silly MLB mandate could affect the Cubs bullpen.

Major League Baseball recently outlined some rule changes on technology use and replay systems, demanding all TV monitors available to players and coaches be placed on an eight-second delay during games.

The rule is meant to prevent sign stealing. But it also means most relievers will be unable to watch games live at Wrigley Field, where the bullpens are fully enclosed and situated under the bleachers.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-reds-spring-training-20190304-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on March 05, 2019, 12:18:41 pm
BUFFALO TRACE
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on March 05, 2019, 12:50:41 pm
solid...

Four Roses also a good choice...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 05, 2019, 12:57:20 pm
I'm more of a rye whiskey guy, so Templeton's is my go to.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on March 05, 2019, 01:12:36 pm
Four Roses great value bourbon.

But yes to rye. So many bourbons are too sweet. Rye rye rye all day long. Bulleit makes a great everyday drinker at good value when purchased in the enormous Costco size.

High West, Sazerac, etc., also great higher end choices.

Wild Turkey 101 is actually a bourbon, but has a much higher volume of rye in its mash than most bourbons, and retains many of the rye characteristics as a result. Between the rye qualities and 101 proof, it's a *fantastic* whiskey for mixing, and also a fantastic value.

And then there is the glorious world of scotch...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 05, 2019, 01:16:39 pm
The peatier the better.......
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 05, 2019, 03:06:52 pm
Arizona Phil on one of Allen Webster's outings: 
Quote
ALLEN WEBSTER:
FB: 94-97 T-98
SL: 89-91
CH: 88-90
NOTE: Just - Wow! - ... Absolutely electric... power slider combined with high-velocity FB and an occasional CH... FB was hitting 97 consistently and slider was filthy... some command issues during the inning but not uncommon given the quality of the stuff


Will be an interesting resource.  He's out of options.  On a minor-league contract, so Cubs can send him down to start.  But he's not a guy you can call up on a yo-yo, or that you can keep with the team in April, but send back in May if/when Morrow comes back.  So, perhaps that will work AGAINST his chance of making the April roster.  But he seems to be the non-roster guy with the biggest chance to evolve into an important component of the pen. 


Hope it happens, would be such a nice human-interest story. 



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 05, 2019, 03:22:36 pm
I thought Luke Haggerty was our human interest story...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 05, 2019, 04:14:44 pm
I thought Luke Haggerty was our human interest story...

Arizona Phil on one of Allen Webster's outings: 

Will be an interesting resource.  He's out of options.  On a minor-league contract, so Cubs can send him down to start.  But he's not a guy you can call up on a yo-yo, or that you can keep with the team in April, but send back in May if/when Morrow comes back.  So, perhaps that will work AGAINST his chance of making the April roster.  But he seems to be the non-roster guy with the biggest chance to evolve into an important component of the pen. 
Hope it happens, would be such a nice human-interest story. 

Not sure why you guys are talking baseball when the topic/thread is about bourbon.

Can we get back to the drinking business at hand?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 05, 2019, 05:57:28 pm
I thought Luke Haggerty was our human interest story...

According to Baseball Reference, both Webster and Haggerty are human.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 05, 2019, 06:02:08 pm
If Hultzen makes it that trumps either of them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 05, 2019, 06:08:30 pm
According to Baseball Reference, both Webster and Haggerty are human.

Just hopefully they're interesting.  At least hopefully they're more interesting than CurtOne anyway.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 05, 2019, 09:08:58 pm
Low bar.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on March 05, 2019, 09:26:44 pm
It's HaGerty.  We're not talking about Grizzly Adams here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 06, 2019, 12:38:15 am
Mooney has a column on the Cubs' bullpen and Joe Maddon's defense of it, including the following:

"But Maddon also analyzes the numbers and the trends and sees that last season the Cubs led the National League in bullpen ERA (3.35), batting average against (.225) and opponents’ OPS (.658)."

“I’m looking at this saying, ‘Damn, we’re doing pretty good,’” Maddon said. “And people are getting on these guys. From the dugout, it felt like a pretty good job. And you don’t win 95 with a horseshit bullpen. You just don’t. It’s impossible.”


https://theathletic.com/852329/2019/03/05/you-dont-win-95-with-a-horseshit-bullpen-why-joe-maddon-is-so-confident-about-this-years-cubs-team/

There seems to be a fair amount of teeth gnashing about the bullpen here, and I'm curious what the response is to Joe's quote and the column.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 06, 2019, 02:31:48 am
Strop should be able to close while Morrow is hurt and Cishek,Brach,and Edwards are still pretty strong as setup men.

Once Morrow comes back we're in even better shape.

Im also interested in seeing if Maples can put it all together.

He seems to have some Kyle Farnsworth in him.

Im in the belief that our pitching staff will be a strength.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 06, 2019, 09:26:31 am
In that article was reference to Tony Barnette. 

Q1:  Does he have options left? 
Q2:  He's on a major-league contract, right?  Not a minor-league deal?

I'd forgotten they'd signed him.  He's 35, with 3 years of big-league service, so not the type of guy I'd think of as having options left.  But I'm not sure any team has ever optioned, him, or if so more than maybe once? 

Has a 13.5 ERA in two outings, and last season ended in July with shoulder problems.  So I'm not sure the odds are great with an old finesse pitcher coming off shoulder injury.  But you never know.  Sometimes for teams that end up going to the World Series, some things click right for some uncertain or unlikely guys. 

Even in the event that he does not have options, or that options don't apply to 35-year-olds with 3 years of service, I wonder if the Cubs don't figure they can just assign him to rehab if he doesn't make the team out of camp?  Given that he ended last year injured, and doesn't seem to be getting used heavily early on in camp, rehab would be a way to keep him (if they still have any hopes for him) without having to burn a roster spot on him. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 06, 2019, 09:44:36 am
Last year's pen was the best part of last year's team.  This is a new season, so who knows?  I'm surely hoping that they are very good again, and even better than last year.  But as we all know, relievers tend to be relatively unpredictable and inconsistent.  Strop has been consistently good, but last year was a career year for him.  Cishek had a career year, and was used really heavily; who knows?  Morrow was good during the months he pitched; who knows if he'll come back and if so if he'll be good this time around?  Randy Rosario had an excellent season; he might be as good or better this year, or he might never pitch as well again.  Who knows?  Jesse Chavez gave a bunch of really good innings; who knows if his replacement(s) will be as good? 

I'm hopeful all the guys who did well will come back and be as good.  And that some other guys will make it better.
*Don't think Edwards' arm was good all year.  **IF** his arm is in better shape, he might be better.  And it's still not impossible that he'll somehow turn up with somewhat better control and be better than he's ever been?
*Kintzler wasn't good for us, but he's been a steady professional guy for a long time.  It's conceivable that he'll be back to career Kintzler, and that last year was an anti-career year.
*Duensing too has had some good years, of which last year wasn't one of them.  Maybe last year was an anti-career year, and he'll be decently functional this year?
*Chatwood had a totally anti-career year.  **IF** he found some control, I think he could hypothetically be a really valuable component of an effective pen? 
*Brach has had some good years.  Maybe last half-year in Baltimore was anti-career year, and he'll be back to good this year and be like Cishek was last year? 
*Maybe Allen Webster will have high end stuff and respectable control, and will end up being a big component of a highly effective pen? 
*Maybe Tony Barnette will end up being perfectly healthy, and will be as good as he was last year and 16 and 15, and be a really nice addition? 
*Maybe Alzolay will be up by July and become a really nice arm and quite good in relief? 
*Maybe Mekkes will be up in July and that stuff that's worked in minors will translate surprisingly well and work pretty well in the majors too? 
*Maybe Tazawa will somehow come back and his arm will feel like he's 27 again, and he'll end up being a nice strike-throwing workhorse, the defense will gobble up the contact, and somehow the wind will always blow in when he pitches so the HR's aren't too bad? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 06, 2019, 09:58:23 am
I believe Arizona Phil said Barnette had multiple options left.

Maples/Mekkes/Norwood/Webster/Alzolay give you some interesting depth from the right hand side.  Justin Steele could be in the mix from the left hand side later in the year too.

Duensing had a shoulder issue last year and has lookded better in the spring so far.  Bullpens are volatile, but the Cubs have shown an amazing ability to find guys on the scrap heap during the season and turn them into useful relievers when the need arises.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 06, 2019, 10:12:45 am
I believe Arizona Phil said Barnette had multiple options left...

Thanks!  That's helpful to know, and could be helpful to the Cubs, at least in the event that he's healthy and pitching well enough that you might be OK with having him on the team as needed. 

On Steele, I think AZ Phil said he's being held back, or something to that effect.  It wasn't clear why.  Whether he's had a setback?  Or whether maybe given his arm injuries, he was on the roster but they didn't really want him throwing as early as the big-leaguers start, and just want to keep him on schedule with the minor leaguers?  Or perhaps as you suggest, he might be a lefty option down the road for the big-league Cubs this season?  He'll surely be on a severe work-limit this season.  So *if* they think he  might help them in September or October, no point in burning his pitch-limit in February and march and hitting his shut-down limit in July?  Who knows, beats me. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 06, 2019, 10:31:42 am
I think that Webster is going to make the staff, and have an impact on the season, if he is healthy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 06, 2019, 10:33:13 am
Anthony Rizzo hopes he will be a Cub for the rest of his career.  Me too.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-anthony-rizzo-career-20190305-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 06, 2019, 10:34:27 am
He doesn't want to join Harper, Trout, and Bryant in Philly?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on March 06, 2019, 10:35:40 am
Thanks!  That's helpful to know, and could be helpful to the Cubs, at least in the event that he's healthy and pitching well enough that you might be OK with having him on the team as needed. 

On Steele, I think AZ Phil said he's being held back, or something to that effect.  It wasn't clear why.  Whether he's had a setback?  Or whether maybe given his arm injuries, he was on the roster but they didn't really want him throwing as early as the big-leaguers start, and just want to keep him on schedule with the minor leaguers?  Or perhaps as you suggest, he might be a lefty option down the road for the big-league Cubs this season?  He'll surely be on a severe work-limit this season.  So *if* they think he  might help them in September or October, no point in burning his pitch-limit in February and march and hitting his shut-down limit in July?  Who knows, beats me. 

Arizona Phil now has something on his page that suggests that perhaps Barnette can refuse an optional assignment because of rights he may have earned as an "international player" resulting from his time playing in Japan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 06, 2019, 10:43:07 am
As Jeff notes, Barnette played in Japan for six seasons, so he may have rights as a “vested foreign player”—as AZ Phil calls it.

That would mean that Barnette has the right to decline an optional assignment and declare free agency if Cubs attempt to option him. Barnette has three options remaining but his rights of free agency as a vested foreign player may trump the Cubs ability to control him by option.

Phil has a TBD next to Barnette on his roster page (footnote 3), so that might either mean that Phil isn’t sure about this or that Barnette’s option situation remains to be seen. In any case, it’s more complicated than just a guy with three options left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 06, 2019, 10:50:00 am
"But Maddon also analyzes the numbers and the trends and sees that last season the Cubs led the National League in bullpen ERA (3.35), batting average against (.225) and opponents’ OPS (.658)."

There seems to be a fair amount of teeth gnashing about the bullpen here, and I'm curious what the response is to Joe's quote and the column.

FWIW, they were not as good by FIP (6th) and fWAR (5th). Still pretty good, but those numbers put them more towards the middle of the pack than top of the league. They also had the lowest bullpen BABIP in the NL (.277), which likely won't happen again. They didn't avoid contact very well (9th in the NL in strikeout rate), which is not ideal when you're expecting some BABIP regression.

There's a lot of reason to think that their bullpen wasn't as good as their topline numbers last year. On top of that, they lost Chavez (their best reliever in the second half) and Wilson (their only semi-reliable lefty reliever for most of the year) without really replacing either (Brach could be close, I guess). And I don't think you can really rely on Morrow for anything.

It's easy to see how the bullpen could go off the rails. Beyond Strop and Cishek, I don't think there is anyone in the pen without serious warts (Morrow's health, Edwards' command issues, Brach's health concerns that led to re-negotiating the contract, Montgomery/Duensing/Kintzler/Rosario don't miss enough bats, etc.). And even Strop and Cishek aren't really top tier relievers--they're consistently very good, but not dominant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 06, 2019, 10:54:28 am
Besides the shoulder, Duensing had a lot of issues last year...death of father, for example.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on March 06, 2019, 12:06:09 pm
Mooney has a column on the Cubs' bullpen and Joe Maddon's defense of it, including the following:

"But Maddon also analyzes the numbers and the trends and sees that last season the Cubs led the National League in bullpen ERA (3.35), batting average against (.225) and opponents’ OPS (.658)."

“I’m looking at this saying, ‘Damn, we’re doing pretty good,’” Maddon said. “And people are getting on these guys. From the dugout, it felt like a pretty good job. And you don’t win 95 with a horseshit bullpen. You just don’t. It’s impossible.”


https://theathletic.com/852329/2019/03/05/you-dont-win-95-with-a-horseshit-bullpen-why-joe-maddon-is-so-confident-about-this-years-cubs-team/

There seems to be a fair amount of teeth gnashing about the bullpen here, and I'm curious what the response is to Joe's quote and the column.

The bullpen *results* were fantastic last year, which these kinds of stats speak to very well. Joe is absolutely right to defend the achievements of last year's pen.

The underlying stats also say that at least some of those results were luck-driven, which we should not expect to repeat. It is therefore also right to question the pen construction for 2019.

For me personally, the bullpen doesn't top my list of concerns for 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 06, 2019, 12:07:59 pm
Thanks for posts, both re Barnette's unusual status, and br's notes about how the pen ERA past was perhaps better than the underlying FIP and fWAR numbers might anticipate going forwards.  Who knows, we'll see.  As we all know, ERA's or SABER numbers past don't always dictate what the future will hold. 

One of the questions about the upcoming season, of course, will be the defense.  During the WS season, the Cubs had some astonishingly good defensive numbers.  Those were not matched last year. 

I'm hoping that the defense will return to being amazingly good again this year, and that all the ERA's will outperform the FIPs again. 

Russell is of course a central variable in that.  Will he stay clean enough for the Cubs to keep him all season?  Will his shoulders and throwing stay healthy enough to defend at an elite level?  Will he hit enough to contribute as a 2-way guy and to be an every-day defender?  Will time spent on counseling and introspective self-analysis distract from preparation or attention to job-related stuff like fielding and hitting?  When Russell is playing great SS and Baez is at 2nd, that's way more amazing than Baez at SS and some average defender at 2nd. 

Also hoping that if Rizzo has shed some weight, that perhaps he'll be a little more great defensively, too.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 06, 2019, 12:31:00 pm
Sample size matters and relievers have incredibly small sample sizes.  So weather you are looking at FIP or ERA or any other stat the predictive value isn't great.  Could the Cubs bullpen blow up?  Sure, but you can say that about any team.  It really only takes 1-3 guys to get hot at the right time for the bullpen to dominate in the post-season.  The Cubs have multiple guys already that could be those 1-3 guys.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 06, 2019, 04:22:57 pm
He seems to have some Kyle Farnsworth in him.

Im in the belief that our pitching staff will be a strength.

Just hard to reconcile these two things.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 06, 2019, 05:27:15 pm
We have all been around long enough to know that good performances in spring training does not guarantee good performances in the regular season.  However, there is little doubt that, all things being equal, it is a better sign when a questionable player does well in the spring than when he does terrible.

So far this spring, a number of "question mark" players are having very good springs.  Chatwood had another very good outing today, showing little indication of the horrible yips that caused him to be more ineffective last year than he has been previously.

Bryant seems to have no ill effects from the shoulder problem that caused him to lose his power in the last half of last year.

Darvish not only says that he feels great this spring.  More importantly, he is pitching great this spring.

Contreras has shown a resurgence in not only contact, but in lost power.

Russell has been much more consistent both in the field and at bat.

Webster has gained praise of ArizonaPhil.

As Craig has said, hope springs eternal in Spring Training, often to flounder as the summer comes on.  But I would much rather have signs of hope than signs of disaster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 06, 2019, 06:35:52 pm
The only thing that really matters in spring training is health, not form - though there are one-off exceptions like Chatwood (when a guy with the yips is throwing strikes, it's at least a modest positive).  I don't much care what kind of results Bryant and Darvish get - what matters is if they get them without their injury history being a factor.  With guys like Contreras, Schwarber and Russell Arizona performance means little.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 06, 2019, 06:47:08 pm
BB% and K% stabilize pretty quickly, so changes in those for hitters and pitchers can be a good or bad thing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on March 06, 2019, 06:58:46 pm
Chatwood's issues didn't strike me as the yips. This wasn't Rick Ankiel. He was just out of sync and wilder than usual which was always wild to begin with.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 06, 2019, 07:02:42 pm
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823272-would-moving-the-mound-back-be-baseballs-worst-rule-experiment?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 06, 2019, 10:49:44 pm
Chatwood's issues didn't strike me as the yips. This wasn't Rick Ankiel. He was just out of sync and wilder than usual which was always wild to begin with.

You can call it whatever you want, but for the 5th-worst walk rate in baseball history "wilder than usual" - while technically accurate - hardly seems a sufficient description.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on March 06, 2019, 10:55:50 pm
Huh...never thought I would see the day that Chris was called out for not being negative enough...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 06, 2019, 11:14:20 pm
Just mention Derrick Rose, he'll set you right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 08, 2019, 05:51:52 pm
Baseball America picks the Cubs to win the NL Central...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-preview-bold-predictions-for-the-2019-season/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 08, 2019, 05:59:46 pm
Dusty, thanks for posting that link.


they also have team-by-team previews

CHICAGO CUBS

Team Strengths: The Cubs’ infield remains arguably the best in baseball, with Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and David Bote representing the six-deep group and Ian Happ able to play in the dirt too. With that infield leading the way, the Cubs finished in the top 10 in MLB in runs (9th), batting average (4th) and OPS (10th) last season. The pitching staff took heat, but the Cubs actually finished top 10 in ERA for both starters and relievers.

Team Weaknesses: The outfield is full of famous names, but they aren’t actually that productive. Albert Almora Jr. and Jason Heyward have been average or below hitters the last three seasons, while Kyle Schwarber’s bounceback year was good but not exceptional. As such, the Cubs' outfield finished a middling 16th in runs above average last year, as measured by Baseball-Reference.

What They Did About It: Daniel Descalso, another infielder, was the only position player free agent the Cubs signed. There’s no outfield help coming from a bottom-tier farm system, either.

Final Outlook: The Cubs largely stood by as the rest of the division got stronger. Still, there’s too much talent present to not win 90-plus games and make the playoffs for a fifth straight year.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 08, 2019, 10:19:41 pm
Webster is really looking good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on March 08, 2019, 11:24:31 pm
There's a "he's the definition of exciting pitching prospect" joke in there somewhere, but I'll leave it for P2.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 08, 2019, 11:25:02 pm
A genuine human interest story.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on March 09, 2019, 09:54:12 am
The return of Donnie Dewees.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/royals-trade-donnie-dewees-to-cubs-for-stephen-ridings.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 09, 2019, 11:10:51 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  1h1 hour ago

Alzolay, Tseng optioned to Iowa, De La Cruz, Steele optioned to Tennessee; Duncan Robinson, Ian Clarkin, Alberto Baldonado, Craig Brooks, Carlos  Ramirez, Colin Rea, Ian Rice, Charcer Burks, Evan Marzilli, Jacob Hannemann assigned to minor league camp. Scahill granted release.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 09, 2019, 06:51:35 pm
03/09/2019, 06:23pm
Tooting their Hoerner: Cubs’ 2018 first-round pick making big first impression

https://chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1948087
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 10, 2019, 03:56:05 pm
There has been some discussion here about Maldonado and the Cubs. This is from Patrick Mooney:

"The Cubs explored the idea of adding Maldonado, though two sources indicated that playing time had been a priority for the Gold Glove catcher. While closely watching the budget for baseball operations – the franchise-record payroll projects to be in the range of $225 million – the Cubs also couldn’t offer Maldonado an ideal platform when Willson Contreras is an All-Star who last year led all major-league catchers in starts (123) and innings behind the plate (1,110-plus).

"The Cubs are still looking for catching depth, according to a source familiar with the team’s thinking. The Cubs value Victor Caratini for his age-25 potential, offensive profile (.933 career OPS at Triple-A Iowa), switch-hitting ability, defensive versatility and familiarity with the team’s pitching staff and game-planning system. The Cubs are clearly comfortable with Caratini backing up Contreras, but Taylor Davis is the only other catcher on their 40-man roster.

By choosing a rebuilding team that will likely be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline, Maldonado is still a name to keep in mind for the Cubs. Remember how the Cubs acquired Alex Avila in the Justin Wilson deal with the Detroit Tigers during the summer of 2017 – after Miguel Montero talked his way off the team and nine days before Contreras would strain his hamstring and miss a month of action."


https://theathletic.com/859156/2019/03/10/letters-from-camp-cole-hamels-talks-rule-changes-nico-hoerner-impresses/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 10, 2019, 04:00:36 pm
Quote
By choosing a rebuilding team that will likely be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline, Maldonado is still a name to keep in mind for the Cubs. Remember how the Cubs acquired Alex Avila in the Justin Wilson deal with the Detroit Tigers during the summer of 2017 – after Miguel Montero talked his way off the team and nine days before Contreras would strain his hamstring and miss a month of action."

Yeah the thought did cross my mind that we might be sending the Royals a mid-level prospect for Maldanado when the trade deadline comes around. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 11, 2019, 10:15:09 am
The Cubs now have a Youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/Cubs?partnerId=ed-13467004-113022315
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 11, 2019, 12:22:31 pm
The Cubs now have a Youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/Cubs?partnerId=ed-13467004-113022315

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1Y1pU6W0AMyED9.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 12, 2019, 06:39:18 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  20s20 seconds ago
Maddon on Strop: "It doesn’t look bad, but you don’t push a guy like that right now."

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  3m3 minutes ago
Strop will continue to throw but will stay off a mound for about a week.

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  4m4 minutes ago
Strop felt tug on final pitch Saturday vs. Halos

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  4m4 minutes ago
Right hamstring, MRI showed mild strain

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  5m5 minutes ago
Strop hamstring, questionable for opening day
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 12, 2019, 06:41:14 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer  @GDubCub  8m8 minutes ago
Strop hamstring strain (mild). Right one. Oppo from last year’s.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 12, 2019, 06:42:49 pm
No Strop, no Morrow, no money.  No problem?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 12, 2019, 08:39:50 pm
Deeg is right.  We might as well forfeit all the games, rather than bother to play them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 13, 2019, 12:59:36 pm
Tyler Chatwood makes a feeble attempt at explaining himself

https://chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1979800
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on March 13, 2019, 03:15:36 pm
Hagerty update:

https://theathletic.com/865575/2019/03/13/whats-the-next-chapter-in-luke-hagertys-unreal-comeback-story/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 13, 2019, 05:29:18 pm
Everything’s fine, nothing to see here.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cubs-brad-brach-velocity-down-during-spring/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 13, 2019, 05:32:35 pm
Quote
CRAIG KIMBREL
RP, BOSTON RED SOX

Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports the Cubs are considering adding a reliever via free agency or trade and may even consider top free agent closer Craig Kimbrel.

With top internal closing candidates Brandon Morrow (elbow) and Pedro Strop (hamstring) battling injuries, the Cubs find themselves short of relievers before the season even starts. Manager Joe Maddon said there have been meetings to discuss their options for bolstering the bullpen. Asked if the Cubs might go after Kimbrel, Maddon said "We really didn't discuss that. But, I can't tell you that it's out of the question." Kimbrel would go a long way toward solidifying the ninth inning for the Cubs (or any team) but he would be very expensive. Kimbrel is believed to still be holding out for a contract of five or more years in the neighborhood of $90 million. The Cubs have operated on a low budget this offseason and were unable to sign any free agents of note.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on March 13, 2019, 10:26:19 pm
Asked if the Cubs might go after Kimbrel, Maddon said "We really didn't discuss that. But, I can't tell you that it's out of the question."


This doesn't strike me as proof that the Cubs are considering Kimbrel. May consider? Well, I guess they may consider anyone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 14, 2019, 01:21:08 am
The money quote is that Kimbrel was not discussed at meetings about adding to the bullpen. What is the answer about who might be added?

(A) a guy who was discussed or (B) a guy who was NOT discussed?

 My money is on (A).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 14, 2019, 11:22:41 pm
The money quote is that Kimbrel was not discussed at meetings about adding to the bullpen. What is the answer about who might be added?

(A) a guy who was discussed or (B) a guy who was NOT discussed?

 My money is on (A).

So where is the quote about which options WERE discussed?  Where is the quote that ANY particular name was discussed?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 16, 2019, 05:07:58 pm
Piece on Cubs bench alternatives for season opener.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-bench-uncertain-with-daniel-descalso-hurt
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on March 16, 2019, 06:17:21 pm
Adames has had a real nice Spring.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 16, 2019, 06:27:11 pm
Adames has had a real nice Spring.

Yes, Adames has been very good this Spring.  Slash line of 429-462-829 (39 PAs).

On other hand, as a Rockie his entire career in majors up to now, this is his career road slash line:  149-206-201 (165 PAs). Ouch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 16, 2019, 07:38:10 pm
Chatwood certainly seems to have had a very good outing after struggling the last game: 1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 SO.

It's spring training, and a small sample size to be sure, but I believe Chatwood has only given up 4 BB and 10 H in 11 IP, with 7 SO, with an ERA of 3.27. That's a whole lot better than what we might have expected.  Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 16, 2019, 09:06:32 pm
He was entirely awful in the one game he started, though. I’m not sure if you’d rather be was a little wild every time out in the spring, or had one complete meltdown game sandwiched between normie ones.

Also, Heyward and his yet-another new swing have been truly awful. It’s meaningless Cactus League stuff but with him you have to be worried. Will he finally be on a short leash for playing time this year if he’s awful at the plate? It probably helps his case that the main guy who’d be a beneficiary, Happ, has been equally bad.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 16, 2019, 09:46:00 pm
There's time left in spring training and, then, once the bullets fly, what happened in ST means zip.

We've all seen guys who struggled in ST, start the regular season hot.  And guys who are hitting .700 in ST, are hitting below the Mendoza line by May.

Some guys work on stuff in ST.  And small sample sizes can hurt some of the best hitters through April (and make some press too long thereafter).

The concern I have for Heyward's hitting is what he's been with us in past years...hard to imagine he will be much different this year. 

The concern I have for Happ is that the light bulb hasn't come on yet.  But, with him, I think it will come.  Hopefully, we will be appropriately patient with him...give him enough ABs to develop, but not rely on him too much until he takes off some (assuming he will at some point).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on March 16, 2019, 10:19:29 pm
Jesse Rogers says to give it up on Kimbrell:


http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26275254/forget-kimbrel-cubs-seeking-relief-bullpen-injuries-mount
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 16, 2019, 10:24:54 pm
After this offseason, did anyone really buy into the idea that Kimbrel was an option? They couldn't afford Jesse Chavez at 2 years, $8 million. They settled for Xavier Cedeno to fill their giant LH relief hole.  No way they were ever paying Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 18, 2019, 12:45:19 pm
After this offseason, did anyone really buy into the idea that Kimbrel was an option? They couldn't afford Jesse Chavez at 2 years, $8 million. They settled for Xavier Cedeno to fill their giant LH relief hole.  No way they were ever paying Kimbrel.

Prices are determined by supply and demand.  Injuries would appear to have significantly increased the Cubs' demand for a strong reliever.  Nothing has increase the supply of FA relievers available.

Seems entirely possible to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 18, 2019, 07:13:13 pm

Article about Cub HItting Coach, Anthony Iapoce, by  Jordan Bastian   @MLBastian 

MESA, Ariz. -- Anthony Iapoce needed to do something. He was struggling in the batter's box and searching for anything to turn things around. In need of answers or perhaps just some help from the baseball gods, he hoisted the pant legs on his uniform and went with high socks.

"Next game, I hit a homer," Iapoce said with a laugh. "I never pulled them back down."

That was back in 1993, when Iapoce suited up for Lamar University. He still wears the high-socks look now as the Cubs' new, but familiar, hitting coach. Chicago reunited with Iapoce -- formerly the team's Minor League hitting coordinator -- after he spent the past three years as the Rangers' Major League hitting coach.

Iapoce recently discussed his return and some of his philosophies in a chat with MLB.com.

MLB.com: What has it been like reconnecting with guys you saw coming up through the Minor League system in your former role with the Cubs?

Iapoce: "You're just really proud of a lot of guys, especially with what they accomplished in '16. But you hear them talk and how their talk is different -- it's maturity. Their practice has matured, as far as them knowing how to work, knowing their strengths, what to work on. The things that I saw when I left in '15 and where the guys are at now, they're detailed and understanding and so team-oriented on winning. Selfless players. It's just cool to be a part of it again. Talking with guys when I first got the job, it was like we were never apart from each other. Every other job I've taken, the first step is to establish relationships. Here, you have that right away. It's straight-up honest conversations."

MLB.com: Obviously, mechanics are a part of the hitting process, but how much importance do you place on the mental side of things? This spring, a lot of players have mentioned that aspect when talking about working with you.

Iapoce: "Everybody's always trying to separate mental, mechanical, analytics. Today's hitters, you've got to be a hybrid hitter. You've got to be able to handle everything. You can't just be one-sided or you're going to miss stuff. Even as a coach, if you're always talking about one thing, you're going to miss certain things that that player may need and how you want to present it to them. All winter, you're watching swings. You're watching video that guys are sending you from their practice.

"So you're talking about all that stuff, but ultimately, it comes down to how you think is going to put you in position to hit the ball. And it's retraining. I think we get messed up -- whether it's a pitcher or hitter -- we talk about, 'He can't repeat his delivery or swing.' That's not a physical thing. It's a thought. We need to teach them to repeat his thoughts. Repetitive thoughts. Telling yourself what you want to do usually puts your body in a position to do what you want to do."

MLB.com: Cubs manager Joe Maddon has started referring to situational hitting as 'opportunity hitting,' because that is what you called it in a meeting. That's subtle, but why is that type of phrasing important?

Iapoce: "I just said it in a presentation. He took it and ran with it. There's all kinds of ways to change certain things. Like, extra and early. Everybody's doing 'extra work' an 'early work.' So, our early work is 'get better work.' Our extra work is 'domination work.' You've got to be able to dominate your practice before you step on a field. Using terms like that, as a coach, at least I am, you're afraid of getting stale. So I'm not saying the same things I said two years ago or two years before that. My standards and principles are still the same, but how I present them are a lot different. And it's going to be different in future years.

"I think how you do that is you venture out of baseball. You just read. You read or you watch documentaries and you read more. You read about business. You read about philosophies. You read about other sports. You read about individual sports. And that's where things start to come from. I just love reading new things from other people, even old books -- it doesn't matter -- that I can bring into the hitting world or team aspect of baseball."

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 18, 2019, 07:24:48 pm
An instructor saying the same thing using another phrase can mean all the difference in the world in a lot of sports.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 19, 2019, 04:57:50 pm
Darvish gets pulled with some kind of "injury" in the 5th.  Maybe something with his hand?  Blisters, maybe? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 19, 2019, 11:06:45 pm
Its a blister.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on March 21, 2019, 08:07:13 am
Stanton vs. Descalso:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25900712/daniel-descalso-outhit-giancarlo-stanton-year
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 22, 2019, 08:23:44 pm
Has Albert Almora really made changes to improve his offense

https://theathletic.com/882017/2019/03/22/letters-from-camp-albert-almora-jr-s-new-spring-plate-approach-could-be-a-regular-season-game-changer/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 23, 2019, 11:14:07 am
Quote from: CubsInsider on Friday

One of the pitchers making a really good impression is Junichi Tazawa (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tazawju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), who appears to have recaptured the form that make him an excellent relief option for the Red Sox several years ago. His velocity and splitter usage have dropped off, but his solid performance in limited usage this spring has engendered more confidence that anything we’ve seen from Kintzler or Duensing.


Michael Ernst  @mj_ernst   2m2 minutes ago
Tazawa has been released. Gotta say, as good as his numbers were this spring, the 88-90 mph fastball scares the cap out of me. And apparently the Cubs too. Thought he'd get a shot in Iowa, but I'm perfectly fine with this outcome.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 05:52:08 pm
Happ is starting the season in AAA?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 23, 2019, 05:56:25 pm
Happ is starting the season in AAA?
So say Mark Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 06:05:43 pm
Could they be adding a player and need the roster spot? Seems like a really unearned demotion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 23, 2019, 06:15:49 pm
Hitting .132/.196/.192 isn't helping his case for sticking around.

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Tazawa granted his release, Mills optioned. More moves may occur later. Maddon: “(Happ) was not happy.” Focus in Iowa cutting down on strikeouts, will play primarily outfield

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
·
15m
Joe said Happ took it hard. They want him to play everyday and get back when he’s ready. Really has struggled from the left side a lot last year and in camp. And that’s his better side.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 06:17:41 pm
Yeah, but Spring Training stats are meaningless.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 23, 2019, 06:25:39 pm
Coming off a 36.1% K% it isn't helping his case to have a rough spring.  Through in the fact that his worse defensively and that isn't a recipe for getting on a major league team.

Almora has a 1.000 OPS this spring and is hitting the ball with authority.  Zobrist/Descalso/Bote will get time at 2B and Zobrist/Descalso will likely get some time in the OF too.  I think it will be interesting to see if Adames or Zagunis makes the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 23, 2019, 06:27:52 pm
Could they be adding a player and need the roster spot? Seems like a really unearned demotion.
Seriously?  Seems to me he earned it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 06:37:17 pm
He had a low batting average last year and struck out too much. But he also had a .761 OPS and 106 wRC+. He was a slightly above average major league hitter last year despite his problems.

Adames is a below replacement level player (-1.7 career fWAR in 343 career PA), so I'm doubtful he'll make the team better. Maybe Zagunis could be decent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 23, 2019, 06:50:35 pm
Im surprised by the Happ demotion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 23, 2019, 07:02:41 pm
I wonder if sending him down might be a wake up call kind of thing for him too.  I’m sure the Cubs are smart enough to know Happ is a better player than Adames.  Still maybe they thought Happ didn’t show up ready to play, and at some level, you do have to foster a spirit of competition for these spots.   Happ might be a better player, but he’s not good enough to show up for spring hitting .132 and just expect to be given a spot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 23, 2019, 07:06:24 pm
Hopefully Happ shows up to Iowa pissed off, tears the cover off the ball and earns his spot back right away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 23, 2019, 07:17:37 pm
Adames isn't great, but at least he could play SS if Javy got hurt.

I think this is a lot like when Schwarber got sent down.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 23, 2019, 07:28:36 pm
Ian Happ (2017 and 2018) owns the worst two strikeout percentages for a player in a single season in Cubs history (min 400 PA).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 23, 2019, 07:31:00 pm
Dont get me wrong. I like Happ. Im by no means saying he's a lost cause. I think Descalso and Zobrist are gonna play the majority of the games at 2nd and Almora must be going to play every day.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 07:34:03 pm
Levine has tweeted a couple times in the last few minutes indicating that the Cubs are still looking for CF and backup catcher help.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on March 23, 2019, 07:39:46 pm
I'm surprised about Happ, but whatever adjustments he is attempting during the Spring, they are not working.  AAA might be the right place to work on those things for a bit.  Hopefully, he'll be back before too long.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 23, 2019, 07:42:26 pm
Levine has tweeted a couple times in the last few minutes indicating that the Cubs are still looking for CF and backup catcher help.

Rene Rivera was just released by SF.  I think he's a better option than some of these supposed backup catcher possibilities that people love to salivate over.  Good thrower, good framer, not comically inept with the bat, seems to be a good teammate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 23, 2019, 07:46:29 pm
Hitting .132/.196/.192 isn't helping his case for sticking around.


Heyward:.156/.250/.219
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 23, 2019, 07:58:09 pm
I
Heyward:.156/.250/.219

I was unaware Hayward had options remaining. If he does sure send him down too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 08:21:40 pm
Rene Rivera was just released by SF.  I think he's a better option than some of these supposed backup catcher possibilities that people love to salivate over.  Good thrower, good framer, not comically inept with the bat, seems to be a good teammate.

I'm definitely on board with Rivera--at the beginning of the offseason, he and Maldonado were my two favorites on the backup catcher market (and I didn't think Maldonado would take a backup job).

Who is out there to help with CF? I'm sure they'd be looking for a LHH since Almora is still going to be around, so that takes Carlos Gomez (who was released by the Mets today) off the list. Denard Span is out there, but can he still play CF? He probably wouldn't be ready for the season either since he hasn't been in anyone's camp. Is there anyone out of options around the league who could help?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 23, 2019, 08:25:43 pm
Why not just release Heyward?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 23, 2019, 08:26:47 pm
His defense still provides value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 23, 2019, 08:47:04 pm
Adames has been sent to minor league camp. So Zagunis is in line to make the team unless the Cubs add someone else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 23, 2019, 10:10:50 pm
So, Happ is Sadd?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 23, 2019, 10:12:17 pm
I remember back in the early 60's, the Giants sent Willie McCovey back to AAA.  All the experts said he was finished.  He was a bust.  Heh.  How did that work out?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 23, 2019, 10:15:29 pm
And CurtOne, you also remember when Cap Anson was sent to Triple-A, and that also worked out really well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 23, 2019, 11:09:59 pm
Bryant has had a rough spring.  His only HR was his first AB, right?  And now down to .211 for average.  I know he said before spring had started that the shoulder was OK, and like any hitter he's always been streaky.  But it's pretty crucial that he's really good. 

Lester's been having a bad spring, but managed to raise his 9+ ERA into the 10+ area.  Probably looking forward to some cold, wind-in Wrigley weather.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 24, 2019, 06:14:19 am
If we take Theo's end of season comments seriously about talent and potential not being enough and that results are important, we should not be shocked by Happ's demotion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on March 24, 2019, 07:38:30 am
Although I didn't take that to include results during ST.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on March 24, 2019, 07:39:04 am
Disappointed about Tazawa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on March 24, 2019, 08:37:51 am
Barring any last minute additions from outside the organization, the position player roster is set.

There is only one non-roster invitee still in major league camp - Allen Webster.

There will be six more pitchers cut, placed on the injured list, or traded.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 24, 2019, 08:38:22 am
Don't think Cubs made the decision to send Happ down based as much on small sample size ST numbers as on what they observed with him at the plate.

Joe implied they had him working on some things this spring and he was struggling with those specific items, so they felt he would be better off playing every day in Iowa and working on those necessary adjustments rather than playing now and then in the bigs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 24, 2019, 09:23:19 am
Don't think Cubs made the decision to send Happ down based as much on small sample size ST numbers as on what they observed with him at the plate.

Joe implied they had him working on some things this spring and he was struggling with those specific items, so they felt he would be better off playing every day in Iowa and working on those necessary adjustments rather than playing now and then in the bigs.
Joe also indicated that Happ was upset because he thought of himself as an established player.  When you have this kind of spring on top of last season, you are not established.  Almora is not an established player.  Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Heyward are.  Schwarber is not.  A flick of a pencil and these guys could be gone.  That's what I was saying.  Theo, between the lines, was referring to people who were loaded with talent and not producing and seeming to be oblivious to the business of baseball.  I like Happ, but what have you done for me lately?  I can pluck a dozen guys off the waiver wire that can give me that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 24, 2019, 11:34:56 am
Mark Gonzales suggests trading for Tony Watson could be an option. Probably just speculation, but it would be by far the most impactful move off the offseason for the Cubs.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-rangers-indians-20190322-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 24, 2019, 12:04:05 pm
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
LHP Tim Collins signed and optioned. Duensing DFAd
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 24, 2019, 01:58:44 pm
Theo is implying roster is likely in camp. Last bullpen slot is coming down to Rosario, Ryan and Webster.

Chances are decent that Duensing will return to the Cubs on a minor league deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 24, 2019, 02:12:13 pm
Duensing has a guaranteed major league deal. He can stay with Cubs once he passes thru waivers and accepts an outright to Iowa (rather than electing free agency).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 24, 2019, 05:01:52 pm
Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
LHP Tim Collins signed and optioned. Duensing DFAd


Apparently Harry Wallbanger wan unavailable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 25, 2019, 12:47:11 am
For subscribers of The Athletic, Sharma and Mooney put up an excellent piece on Sunday about some of the little things that Cubs are emphasizing for the players in 2019. Check it out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 25, 2019, 10:30:27 am
For subscribers of The Athletic, Sharma and Mooney put up an excellent piece on Sunday about some of the little things that Cubs are emphasizing for the players in 2019. Check it out.

Thanks, Reb.  Here's the link, for those who want to read the article. 

https://theathletic.com/882881/2019/03/24/attention-will-be-paid-inside-the-cubs-detail-laden-plan-to-get-their-edge-back/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 25, 2019, 10:38:01 am
Craig Calcaterra's takeaway from that article is that Maddon is on the hot seat:

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/25/joe-maddon-is-on-the-hottest-of-hot-seats/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 25, 2019, 10:49:25 am
It did feel that there was a slight disconnect last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 25, 2019, 10:52:55 am
Quote
All spring training we heard that this was one of those rare years when the Cubs roster was so set that there really weren’t going to be any position battles or any surprises. Somebody tell that to Ian Happ, who spent Sunday trying to figure out how far the Des Moines Extended Stay America was from the Iowa Cubs ballpark.

Going from the majors to having to stay at Extended Stay America?  That's got to be quite the comedown for Happ. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 25, 2019, 11:09:00 am
Craig Calcaterra's takeaway from that article is that Maddon is on the hot seat:

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/25/joe-maddon-is-on-the-hottest-of-hot-seats/

The notion that Maddon is in danger of being fired if the Cubs don't get off to a strong start sure seems like a stretch to me.  Clearly the absence of structure and Maddon's apparent distance from some players were things the front office identified as significant issues from last year. But to the extent that Maddon has embraced the changes, which he appears to have done, I don't see his job in that kind of short term jeopardy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 25, 2019, 11:16:20 am
It did feel that there was a slight disconnect last year.
Maddon not walking Christian Yelich in that October 1 game against Milwaukee still bothers me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 25, 2019, 12:20:55 pm
We'll see if Happ can figure enough things out to become big-league competitive.  Sure hope he does, for both his sake and for ours as Cubs fans.  If not, I suspect it might how often young guys' performance often does NOT improve significantly.  Adjustments that the league makes to them to exploit their vulnerabilities outpaces the adjustments they can make to the league.  Particularly when they have such an acute vulnerability to velocity up. 

I wonder how much of the demise is pitcher adjustment, and how much is batter maladjustment?  Does a guy start to work so hard on adjusting what he stinks at that he somehow loses what he was good at it, without ever actually solving the vulnerability?  So that his adjustments end up being counterproductive? 

Or how much is mental, the confidence game?  Sure, you've had slumps before, but you've come out of them, and you've always been confident that you were a stud and were on the up-and-up.  But then you're in a lasts-forever slump, and the confidence oozes away?  You know that if the pitcher gets the fastball above thigh-high you've got no chance?  Now you're always guessing, and even the pitches you used to be able to hammer and keep your average and OPS afloat via the HR's, you're not swinging with enough confidence and commitment to hit even those, and it's just down, down, down, for both stats and for confidence? 

Hitting is so tough, I have to think that if I were in Happ's shoes, I'm pretty scared of all the negativity and despair that would take over my head. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on March 25, 2019, 12:30:35 pm
It's a game of adjustments, and Maddon doesn't seem to have adjusted quickly enough from the "I will do what I can to take pressure off these guys, because the pressure of trying to win the World Series as a Cub is immense" strategy he deftly employed during the 2016 season to a "There are lots of young guys on this team who need more structure and leadership; Ross is gone" strategy.  It's the kind of thing one would have hoped a guy like Maddon would figure out on his own, and I think it still remains a question whether or not he can get it (successfully refocus the team after having been the super-relaxed leader) back.  Sometimes guys can't, and I suspect that's why Theo and Jed didn't extend his contract.  Just in case.  That said, I expect Joe to still be managing the Cubs next year if he wants to.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 25, 2019, 01:41:00 pm
We'll see how the season goes for sure. The optimist in me thinks things are going to be terrific, that it's a talented team who is really hungry now, and in their prime, and the lineup is going to be really good. 

The negativist is that maybe it will go badly, and realize that it's not about managing or motivation or desire; that's it's about talent and skill.  And that we don't have enough anymore.   It's routine for management guys like Theo and Hoyer to misevaluate and overrate their talent, and then to blame the coach/manager when a team that's really playing to their talent doesn't play to the level that management misbelieved was championship-caliber. 

Are Lester and Hamels and Hendricks and Quintana and Darvish world series studs at this point in their lots-of-wear-on-their-arms careers?  Maybe yes; but it wouldn't shock me if it turns out they aren't.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 25, 2019, 02:05:39 pm
I never followed Maddon before he joined the Cubs, but people down here in Florida say that he is managing the Cubs the exact way that he managed Tampa.  If that is the case, Cubs management did a very poor job of due diligence in their search for a manager.

I have always maintained that the manager is the least important part of the team, as far as day to day performance of the team is concerned.  Not of zero importance, but certainly not important enough to make a bad team good, or a good team bad.  I don't believe that Maddon's job is in danger, but if it is, that says as much about Epstein as it does about Maddon.

That said, I have no doubt that a change of manager can have a short term effect on an underachieving team.  Billy Martin proved that several times.  He also proved that the short term effects seldom lasted more than a year or two.  I wouldn't be surprised of a new manager got improved performance for a while.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 25, 2019, 02:16:41 pm
I never followed Maddon before he joined the Cubs, but people down here in Florida say that he is managing the Cubs the exact way that he managed Tampa.  If that is the case, Cubs management did a very poor job of due diligence in their search for a manager.....

Not sure that follows, Dave.  He may be doing exactly what he did there, and exactly as the Cubs knew and expected he would do here.   He had excellent success there and here, too, for an extended time.  Not sure Cubs would at all feel like they haven't gotten what they'd hoped for and wanted/expected. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 25, 2019, 02:41:58 pm
Maddon needs about another 400 wins to be a strong candidate for the Hall of Fame.  That would put him with Lasorda in career wins and, of course, Maddon has a World Series win--kind of a prerequisite for the Hall as a manager.

So, if he's been doing with Cubs what he's been doing all along in his career, that's pretty good.  That's not something to be critical about.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 25, 2019, 03:32:53 pm
"Are Lester and Hamels and Hendricks and Quintana and Darvish world series studs at this point in their lots-of-wear-on-their-arms careers?  Maybe yes; but it wouldn't shock me if it turns out they aren't."

Craig, despite all the uncertainty in numerous areas for the Cubs (e.g. relief pitching), you've certainly nailed my biggest fear!

When we won in 2016, our starters were all rather fantastic most all season!  This year?

As Joe Torre once said, "When I became a major league manager, I thought pitching was 70% of the game.  After I was a manager for a while, I realized it's one helluva lot more important than that!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 25, 2019, 06:52:40 pm
Craig Calcaterra's takeaway from that article is that Maddon is on the hot seat:

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/25/joe-maddon-is-on-the-hottest-of-hot-seats/

It feels like this whole dialogue has been about setting up Maddon as a fall guy in the event things go south, as at attempt to insulate the organization from criticism for its abysmal offseason.  With Maddon likely gone after the season anyway, I'm sure he looks very expendable to the higher-ups.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 25, 2019, 07:52:07 pm
Not sure that follows, Dave.  He may be doing exactly what he did there, and exactly as the Cubs knew and expected he would do here.   He had excellent success there and here, too, for an extended time.  Not sure Cubs would at all feel like they haven't gotten what they'd hoped for and wanted/expected. 

If Maddon is performing as well as his history should have caused them to expect, then they shouldn't be unhappy with his performance.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on March 26, 2019, 12:50:07 am
Quote
If Maddon is performing as well as his history should have caused them to expect, then they shouldn't be unhappy with his performance.

Your skepticism about the effect of managers is well known around these parts, so maybe you really expect that a one-size-fits-all approach to the manager position is appropriate.  In my mind, Maddon was exactly the guy they wanted when they hired him--the pressure for the Cubs to win the World Series was immense, and Maddon kept the team loose enough to win.  What the team needs from its manager appears to be different now, and it remains to be seen whether or not that guy is Maddon.  (I think it is.)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 26, 2019, 07:56:32 am
The Cubs got to their first WS in 71 years largely because of Maddon.  They won their first WS in 108 years largely in spite of him.  It's been clear since 2017 that his routine wasn't working as well, and he had a couple of howlers last season that really come down to questions of simple competence.  It's no wonder management seems wary of him now, but I still think he's being set up as a scapegoat for a disaster the front office has an uneasy feeling may be coming.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on March 26, 2019, 10:17:51 am
Although it hasn't been announced, the way they've lined up the end-of-spring pitching suggests that Hamels/Hendricks will start Saturday/Sunday in Arlington.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 10:32:56 am
I believe the plan is Lester, Darvish, Hamels, Hendricks, Quintana.  Darvish is dependent on how his blister responds.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 26, 2019, 12:46:04 pm
Cubs have a 4 year extension with Hendricks with an option for 2024.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 26, 2019, 12:51:38 pm
$55.595 million according to Rosenthal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 12:54:24 pm
Ken Rosenthal
Verified account
@Ken_Rosenthal
Hendricks will receive his previously negotiated $7.405M salary for this season, then the money in the extension. Guaranteed $63M from 2019 to ‘23.

Of all the Cubs that could have been extended he was the last guy I would have wanted to get extended.  The AAV seem to be fair, especially if this years salary can be included.  Hopefully his velocity will hold through 2023.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 12:57:06 pm
Ken Rosenthal

Verified account

@Ken_Rosenthal
Breakdown on Hendricks, per source.

2019: $7.405M.
2020: $12M.
2021: $14M.
2022: $14M.
2023: $14M.
2024: $16M vesting option or $1.5M buyout.

Option vests based on Cy finish in 2020. NOT a club option.

Deal also includes $3M per season in Cy escalators. Can max out at $79.8M.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 26, 2019, 01:35:30 pm
...Of all the Cubs that could have been extended he was the last guy I would have wanted to get extended.  ....

Yeah.  But, not sure Baez or Bryant would have extended for even two years at the dollars Hendricks took for four.  Hope Kyle can hang in there. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on March 26, 2019, 01:50:45 pm
Of all the Cubs that could have been extended he was the last guy I would have wanted to get extended.  The AAV seem to be fair, especially if this years salary can be included.  Hopefully his velocity will hold through 2023.

That's what I thought too.  On the flipside, he'll still be making less money than Chatwood in 2020, so maybe you could say it's a bargain!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 26, 2019, 02:11:14 pm
Of all the Cubs that could have been extended he was the last guy I would have wanted to get extended.  The AAV seem to be fair, especially if this years salary can be included.  Hopefully his velocity will hold through 2023.

Quote from: Cubs Den
Since his success does not rely on velocity his stuff should hold up well as he enters his thirties, making this a very team-friendly deal for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on March 26, 2019, 02:12:57 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer  @GDubCub  9m9 minutes ago
Escalators increase base salaries in '22, '23, '24 by $2m for winning Cy Young, and $1m if finishes second or third Cy Young, $750K for 4-5 finish, $500k 6-10 finish (max increase $3m)

Deal also includes a suite on the road.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 26, 2019, 02:12:58 pm
Rosario takes the last bullpen spot.

Still no anouncement on Zagunis, though, so they’re probably still looking for a position player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 26, 2019, 02:18:46 pm
Good for Kyle!  He's been a class act, big-game pitcher who does everything the right way!

I just read that, since he went up to MLB in 2014, he has the 9th best ERA among all pitchers with at least 700 innings (just above 3.0). 

Really amazing he's been able to get that done for the Cubs without a FB in the 90s (or even hi 80s much of the time).  Also, amazing we got a guy who has turned out to be a rather consistent at or very near TORP (tho' he's never been considered that)...and that our brain trust was smart enough to target him and bring him over as sort of the other guy in the Dempster-Villanueva trade.

Hendricks is Exhibit A that the development of pitchers, particularly starters, is VERY hard to predict! 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 02:35:50 pm
Quote from: Cubs Den
Since his success does not rely on velocity his stuff should hold up well as he enters his thirties, making this a very team-friendly deal for the Cubs.

His fastball dropped from 89 in 2016 to 87 last year in his age 28 season.  His underlying results have worsened during that time.  If only there was another sub-90 righty that signed an extension at around 29 that we could look at to see what happens when his velocity decreases in his early 30's......

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 02:36:49 pm
Yeah.  But, not sure Baez or Bryant would have extended for even two years at the dollars Hendricks took for four.  Hope Kyle can hang in there. 

Give them Bregman and Arenado money respectfully......  Willson too......
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 26, 2019, 03:35:23 pm
Quote from: Cubs Den
Since his success does not rely on velocity his stuff should hold up well as he enters his thirties, making this a very team-friendly deal for the Cubs.

His fastball dropped from 89 in 2016 to 87 last year in his age 28 season.  His underlying results have worsened during that time.  If only there was another sub-90 righty that signed an extension at around 29 that we could look at to see what happens when his velocity decreases in his early 30's......

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P

Regarding Hendricks' velocity, Brooks Baseball has separate readings for Hendricks' 2-seamer and 4-seamer.  Of course, he throws the 2-seamer more than the 4-seamer.

Brooks has his 2-seamer averaging 88.10 in 2016 and 87.14 in 2018--down just less than one tick.  I would submit that is not much of a big deal.  Hendricks was down to 86.32 in 2017 and then went UP a tick for 2018. So, it's not a straight line drop.  Down and then up again.

If we're going to use 2016 as a Hendricks benchmark, keep in mind that in 2016 Hendricks led the NL in ERA.  Is he getting paid in his new contract like a pitcher who figures to lead the league in ERA?  No.  Also, that happened in 2016, in part, because Hendricks had an unusually low BABIP--an outlier season in that respect. So, what "worsened during that time" is using a benchmark when the guy finished third in the Cy Young voting and led the league in ERA.  Don't think anybody is counting on that in future seasons.  Rather, just a fine pitcher throwing a lot of good innings for the Cubs and making a reasonable salary.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 03:50:00 pm
So somebody like Lester can go from 93 to 90 and still be effective. He can still fall further and be a decent #5 starter.

Hendricks has no where to go. He’s either going to be the 2017/2018 pitcher throwing 87/88. Hd has no where to go with his velocity. If it falls further he going to look like late in his career Jared Weaver that you aren’t going to want in a competitive rotation no matter what he is getting paid.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on March 26, 2019, 04:29:01 pm
I get your point, Blue, and agree that it makes me nervous to lock in long-term somebody who might fall off the cliff at any moment. 

That said, his ERA's have been 2.13, 3.03, and 3.44 the last three seasons.  So for sure, it's possible that he goes slower and become unplayably ineffective.  But it's also maybe possible that he "won't" go anywhere, and will just stay in his velocity range, and be a $$ bargain?  And it's maybe also possible that he'll decline but somehow manage to decline incrementally.  Maybe 3.44 becomes 3.70, then 3.9, then 4.2, then 4.5, still variably servicable?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 26, 2019, 04:35:37 pm
Jered Weaver did not go bad until his velocity dropped to 83. He was still effective at 86.

We’ve already seen Hendricks INCREASE his velocity from 2017 to 2018 and he’s down just one tick from 2016. So, he’s not really showing signs of any significant velocity-drop issue as yet.

Sure, if gets down to 83, that will be problematic. But, I would balance that possibility against all his other positives, including his history of improving his 4-seamer and curveball over time and his ability to make adjustments and vary his pitches and his durability. And, the contract terms are not immense. A good deal, I think..
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 26, 2019, 06:26:41 pm
Agree, Reb, tho' who knows...it's MLB and it's pitching we're talking about.

However, we all need to keep in mind that Hendricks is NOT Jared Weaver.  They are all unique cats.  While I doubt Hendricks can maintain his level IF his FB falls into the 85 range, who really knows.  He's a "master" at "reading" hitters and setting them up (which is why he can throw 87-88 PAST hitters at the letters).

Other items worth considering...Hendricks is a guy who is MORE likely to stay healthy (for multiple reasons) and about the least likely guy in MLB to get in trouble and/or otherwise embarrass himself or cause distraction for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 26, 2019, 07:48:43 pm
Very scary to extend Kyle, given how much even a small velocity drop seems likely to cause his results to crater.  It's not a huge amount of money, but still a big risk given that the salad days of spending like a big-market team seem to be over and every penny counts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on March 26, 2019, 07:52:07 pm
Yeah...after this offseason’s spending restrictions, I’m not a big fan of committing this to Hendricks two years before they have to.

That said, this comes in under Mikolas and Eovaldi, who have significantly weaker track records. So at least they’re getting a price that won’t kill them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 26, 2019, 08:36:44 pm
If you were betting on Hendricks vs. Eovaldi over the next four years, where would you put your money?  Not an easy question.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 08:47:37 pm
None of the above. If I was forced to pick Hendricks for health reasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 26, 2019, 08:49:24 pm
Luchessi, Paddack and Strahm is a nice start and the have enough depth to trade for just about anybody.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on March 26, 2019, 11:46:15 pm
Who the heck knows about 2019, but Hendricks was fabulous in the 2nd half last year (after a rough, for him, 1st half) - 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over the final 3 months of the season!

Once again, it was his FB command and sick change (despite relatively LOW velo) that led to those results.

Rather than wondering who will be better between Hendricks and Eovaldi over the next 4 years, I wonder if Darvish will be better than Hendricks over the next 4 years. 

Of course, I'll dream BOTH Darvish and Hendricks are plus SPs each of the next 4 years!

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 26, 2019, 11:47:58 pm
Very scary to extend Kyle, given how much even a small velocity drop seems likely to cause his results to crater.  It's not a huge amount of money, but still a big risk given that the salad days of spending like a big-market team seem to be over and every penny counts.

Cubs aren’t spending like a big-market team???

Here are the facts:

Cubs have the highest payroll in the NL.

Cubs are also outspending the Yankees.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 27, 2019, 12:21:51 am
One more thing about velocity and Hendricks.

Think that the velocity “issue” is baked into the relatively modest salaries in his new contract. If Hendricks had put up the same ERA but with a more traditional power repertoire, he’d probably be looking at a much bigger deal.

Hendricks broke in during the 2014 season. Here is the full list of pitchers with a better ERA than Hendricks 2014-2018 (minimum 750 IP). Think about their contracts compared to the Hendricks deal.

The list:  Kershaw, deGrom, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, Arrieta, Greinke, Bumgarmer.

That’s it. Hendricks directly follows the above guys in ERA over the last five-year period from 2014-2018.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 27, 2019, 12:37:48 am
Ken Rosenthal

Verified account

@Ken_Rosenthal
Breakdown on Hendricks, per source.

2019: $7.405M.
2020: $12M.
2021: $14M.
2022: $14M.
2023: $14M.
2024: $16M vesting option or $1.5M buyout.

Option vests based on Cy finish in 2020. NOT a club option.

Deal also includes $3M per season in Cy escalators. Can max out at $79.8M.

Passan says that if the 2024 option year doesn't vest based on the benchmarks, it then turns into a club option (with a buyout):

@JeffPassan

Kyle Hendricks' 2024 option will vest if he finishes in the top 3 in Cy Young voting in 2020, a source tells ESPN. If not, it turns into a club option. The option will be for $16M and includes a $1.5M buyout.

2:01 PM - Mar 26, 2019

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 27, 2019, 03:25:02 am
Shills gonna shill.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on March 27, 2019, 08:53:27 am
Facts gonna be facts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 27, 2019, 10:23:32 am
And the facts are that Hendricks has been one of the top dozen pitchers in baseball since he entered the majors.  And he finished last year on a high note, rather than a decline.  All long term contracts for pitchers are a gamble, but this one looks like a very good gamble.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 27, 2019, 10:34:35 am
I like Kyle Hendricks the pitcher.  I think he's great.  I think he is an undervalued asset for the Cubs.  His margin of error for getting MLB hitters is tiny, if he loses any more velocity it will shrink even further.  Peak Weaver was a much better than Hendricks.  He his fWAR went from 5.8 in 2010 to 5.4 in 2011 to 3 in 2012 to 2.3 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2014 to 0.8 2015, to 0.1 in 2016 to -1 in 2017 in 9 games and out of baseball.  The decline can happen that quickly and sure pitcher extensions are risky, but for a guy that hasn't been injured and is older the risk goes down a ton.  Hendricks risk is that his velocity continues to decline and he becomes worthless quickly.  Hopefully this doesn't happen.  Hopefully he keeps chugging along and being great. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 27, 2019, 11:02:16 am
In better news Wrigley is finally going to get some decent craft beers this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on March 27, 2019, 12:41:36 pm
Hendricks currently number 14 on the Bill James starting pitcher list.  It seems to me that the dollars in the Hendricks deal are less than one might expect to pay for a Top 15 starting pitcher and thus is a good deal.  Is there risk?  Sure.  For what pitcher contract isn't there risk?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2019, 08:52:42 pm
Why not just release Heyward?

Not a bad question.

At some point the increased net value of no Heyward on the roster, eating ALL of his salary, and replacing him with someone else for perhaps $5M or so, will likely exceed the value of paying NO more money and and also getting no more value than Heyward produces.

His salary is a sunk cost.  What the Cubs are on the hook for paying him really no longer fits into the equation of what to do with him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2019, 09:05:57 pm
If Maddon is performing as well as his history should have caused them to expect, then they shouldn't be unhappy with his performance.



Hmmmm.....  I try to use that reasoning with my wife, but.....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2019, 09:08:06 pm
I like Kyle Hendricks the pitcher.  I think he's great.  I think he is an undervalued asset for the Cubs.  His margin of error for getting MLB hitters is tiny, if he loses any more velocity it will shrink even further.  Peak Weaver was a much better than Hendricks.  He his fWAR went from 5.8 in 2010 to 5.4 in 2011 to 3 in 2012 to 2.3 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2014 to 0.8 2015, to 0.1 in 2016 to -1 in 2017 in 9 games and out of baseball.  The decline can happen that quickly and sure pitcher extensions are risky, but for a guy that hasn't been injured and is older the risk goes down a ton.  Hendricks risk is that his velocity continues to decline and he becomes worthless quickly.  Hopefully this doesn't happen.  Hopefully he keeps chugging along and being great. 

Haven't you been saying essentially that same thing since Hendricks first had any success?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2019, 09:13:43 pm
Haven't you been saying essentially that same thing since Hendricks first had any success?


That he might not have a long shelf life?  Maybe.  I've defended him on this board in the past though. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2019, 09:26:18 pm
That he might not have a long shelf life?  Maybe.  I've defended him on this board in the past though. 

And that his margin for error was non-existent, and that there is no way he could be considered an Ace, and that his performance was smoke and mirrors.... and other fun stuff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2019, 09:42:44 pm
I think you have me confused with Deeg.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on March 28, 2019, 10:07:57 pm
That he might not have a long shelf life?  Maybe.  I've defended him on this board in the past though. 

The interesting thing is that he should require defending at all.  There are very few pitchers who have performed better than Hendricks since he came into the league, but since he doesn't do it with a great fastball, he must not be very good, performance not withstanding.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2019, 10:08:50 am
Seems like this Brad Keller in KC is a Hendricks clone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on March 29, 2019, 01:02:23 pm
https://deadspin.com/the-inside-story-of-how-the-ricketts-family-schemed-and-1831879476

Not a fan of Deadspin, but this is an interesting tale of how the Cubs ended up with Ricketts family.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2019, 01:26:09 pm
Laura sounds a little childishly jealous.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on March 29, 2019, 02:39:32 pm
Seems like this Brad Keller in KC is a Hendricks clone.

Yeah, except for his repertoire. Keller averages 94 with his fastball and throws a slider as his #2 pitch..
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2019, 04:14:27 pm
Yes, but you hear the same crap about him from KC fans: he can't throw hard enough, he can't K people, etc.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on March 29, 2019, 06:38:22 pm
https://deadspin.com/the-inside-story-of-how-the-ricketts-family-schemed-and-1831879476

Not a fan of Deadspin, but this is an interesting tale of how the Cubs ended up with Ricketts family.

I love the bit where Tom charges his dad, the guy who just gave him $400M to buy the team, $650 for a memento. I think he might have been able to pick up that expense as a thank you. What a tool.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on March 29, 2019, 09:33:55 pm
I dont like Laura.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on March 29, 2019, 10:09:28 pm
I dont like Laura.

Shocking
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on March 30, 2019, 06:22:40 am
Shocking

I was going to go with "Stunning", but that works.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 01, 2019, 12:57:01 pm
A big part of why so many runs were scored in the Rangers series was the abysmal, hitter-friendly home plate umpiring.  I don't think the results tell us much about the state of hitting or pitching for either side.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 01, 2019, 03:58:41 pm
It was the tightest strike zone I have seen in years, especially on the high pitches.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on April 02, 2019, 11:44:15 am
Almost time to start a "Cubs in '20" page as this season is looking ugggggggllllllyyyy
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 02, 2019, 11:48:24 am
Almost time to start a "Cubs in '20" page as this season is looking ugggggggllllllyyyy

Yep. No way the Cubs can back with only 158 games left. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 02, 2019, 12:47:24 pm
Looks like we'll be sellers at the deadline.  Might as well start now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on April 02, 2019, 02:32:06 pm
Boys......relax.  My post wasn't meant to be taken literally.  There is much to like about the first 4 games and certainly 4 games means almost nothing.  With that said, if these particular games don't raise some red flags we may be fooling ourselves.

Darvish may very well win 20 games.  However he struggled in the preseason and his control leaves one clamoring for Chatwood to take the hill to have a better chance at a strike.  Hendricks velo was down a couple notches.  That isn't as big a concern as that has happened early in the season before but it still bares watching.  The pen looks awful.

On a positive, the bats look great.  The fielding, IMHO, has been an aberration and will be just fine.  Losing games where we are up 3 and 4 runs is an issue.  Last night's embarrassment happens.  It will happen to every team in the league.  Games 2 and 3 are my concerns.  Are we going to see those throughout the season?  Time will tell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 03, 2019, 03:58:40 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  3m3 minutes ago
Source says Bote extension is for $15 mil over next 5 years beginning in 2020.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  8m8 minutes ago
Bote initiated the talks, per Theo

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  11m11 minutes ago
David Bote has signed an extension through 2024 w 2 club options
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 03, 2019, 03:59:00 pm
Some people were complaining we weren't locking up our young stars.  Oh ye of little faith...

Quote
David Bote 3B | CHC

Cubs' David Bote: Inks extension with Cubs

by RotoWire Staff
(4 mins ago) Bote signed a five-year, $15 million contract extension with the Cubs on Wednesday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.
The deal, which includes a pair of club options, will keep Bote in a Cubs uniform until 2024. The 25-year-old hit .239/.319/.408 with six homers and three stolen bases in 74 games as a rookie last season. He's currently occupying a utility role for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 03, 2019, 04:00:22 pm
Quote
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  8m8 minutes ago
Bote initiated the talks, per Theo

Pretty darn smart move on the part of a guy with a .249 career BA and .738 career OPS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 04:15:43 pm
Next up Caratini or Rosario.  Really is too bad the Cubs traded LaStella.  They could locked him up too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 03, 2019, 04:25:11 pm
I would think Caratini would command a contract in the Harper range.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 04:34:28 pm
I would think Caratini would command a contract in the (Bryan) Harper range.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 04:44:31 pm
On a serious note, I like Bote and he's a prefectly fine back up.  It pays him like a back up with an AAV of $3 million.  His highest guareenteed year is $6.5 million if his first option isn't picked up.  If he becomes a starter then it is super team friendly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 03, 2019, 05:11:39 pm
Let me ask a question that will make me look stupid.

Dont we have a players rights for 7 years once they come to the majors?

Then why where we in a hurry to sign Bote to a 5 year extension when we should still have him for 6 more?

I can understand if you buy into their free agency after 7 so if you say give them a 5 year extension after 4.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 03, 2019, 05:14:30 pm
I wonder if Bote is another guy where we're betting on new advanced stats.  He would rank 6th in the league in exit velocity last year over enough at bats, although with a very poor launch angle.  I guess the Cubs might think they might have a real player on their hands if they can get the launch angle figured out.


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2018&abs=80&player_type=resp_batter_id
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 06:00:03 pm
Let me ask a question that will make me look stupid.

Dont we have a players rights for 7 years once they come to the majors?

Then why where we in a hurry to sign Bote to a 5 year extension when we should still have him for 6 more?

I can understand if you buy into their free agency after 7 so if you say give them a 5 year extension after 4.



Free agency is after 6 years of MLB service time.  The Cubs essentially capped his arbitration earnings at $15 million and got 2 option years on his free agency for under $10 million a year.

If Bote becomes a starter it will be a steal of a contract. If he’s a back up with ok offense and good defense then it is fair value. Bote gets life changing money after being a late round draft pick. So it is a good deal on both sides.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 03, 2019, 06:15:17 pm
And if Bote spends his career in AAA?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 03, 2019, 06:23:59 pm
Then he will eat better than most of his team mates.

If I were Bote, I would have taken that deal in a heartbeat.  If he plays well enough to make the deal a real steal for the Cubs, he will clean up on the free agent market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 06:32:10 pm
And if Bote spends his career in AAA?

Well Des Moines is pretty cheap to live in so he should have a lot money left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 03, 2019, 11:12:48 pm
Cubs pitchers 43.1 IP, 48 H, 36 BB, 3WP, 44K, 11HR,  37 R, 31 ER.

6.48 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 9.14 K/9, 7.48 BB/9

Hottvoy seems to have had a positive effect, I mean Chatwood is only the sixth worst BB/9 for the Cubs this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 04, 2019, 01:04:42 am
Let me ask a question that will make me look stupid.

Dont we have a players rights for 7 years once they come to the majors?

Then why where we in a hurry to sign Bote to a 5 year extension when we should still have him for 6 more?

I can understand if you buy into their free agency after 7 so if you say give them a 5 year extension after 4.


If THAT question make you look stupid, you are having a good deal of company.

I wouldn't have put even money on Bote having more AB in the majors than the minors in 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 04, 2019, 01:18:34 am
Cubs pitchers 43.1 IP, 48 H, 36 BB, 3WP, 44K, 11HR,  37 R, 31 ER.

6.48 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 9.14 K/9, 7.48 BB/9

Hottvoy seems to have had a positive effect, I mean Chatwood is only the sixth worst BB/9 for the Cubs this year.

Yeah, but Hottovoy works for Arby's coupons so it's all good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on April 04, 2019, 08:23:47 am
Quote
If he becomes a starter then it is super team friendly.

And a very nice trading chip if he does.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 04, 2019, 08:29:36 am
When he gets sent to Iowa, it will give a new definition to "exit speed."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 04, 2019, 11:41:48 am
I think a key for the Cubs will be staying afloat for the first month while the bullpen situation gets sorted out.  A .500 record at the end of April will be fine.  Hopefully by then the bullpen roster will have been appropriately modified.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on April 04, 2019, 04:03:56 pm
would be great to get morrow back on may 1st and have kimbrel ready then too...but i digress
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 04, 2019, 07:14:43 pm
Damn I can't understand why we havent signed Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 04, 2019, 07:14:57 pm
I think a key for the Cubs will be staying afloat for the first month while the bullpen situation gets sorted out.  A .500 record at the end of April will be fine.  Hopefully by then the bullpen roster will have been appropriately modified.

Play, a serious question - what modifications are you thinking might realistically happen that could fix the bullpen?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 08:54:38 pm
Do you realize that the most likely outcome is that the Cubs will be 7.5 games behind the Brewers 9/10 games into the season?  That's insane!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 04, 2019, 09:04:15 pm
How about how are the Cubs going to fix the $84 million rotation that was produced -0.4 fWAR not including Darvish’s stellar effort today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 09:06:45 pm
Let's be honest - Theo has become possibly MLB's worst executive.  He needs to go.  Now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 09:11:11 pm
We really need a 100-loss season to bring about some major changes in the organization.  Things are badly broken.

Hope that we can continue what we've started in 2019.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on April 04, 2019, 09:12:08 pm
The real JeffH is back!!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 09:13:57 pm
When the organization is one of the worst in MLB, I will testify to the truth.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on April 04, 2019, 09:15:56 pm
Preach brotha!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 04, 2019, 09:28:33 pm
Jeff is looking for someone to offer him a quick $500 to shut up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 09:29:53 pm
I think a key for the Cubs will be staying afloat for the first month while the bullpen situation gets sorted out.  A .500 record at the end of April will be fine.  Hopefully by then the bullpen roster will have been appropriately modified.

Try not to be ignorant  No offense to you personally.  The Cubs have virtually zero chance of being .500 at the end of April.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 09:30:27 pm
Jeff is looking for someone to offer him a quick $500 to shut up.

Unlike br, I'll happily take it!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 04, 2019, 09:38:29 pm
I'll offer $0.50.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on April 04, 2019, 09:41:50 pm
I got $0.55 to keep it going
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on April 04, 2019, 09:45:51 pm
It's still early, but the Braves might be getting some unpleasant flashbacks to that ten-run comeback from last season.  Cubs have three runs in and two more on base with just one out and Zobrist coming up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 04, 2019, 09:48:07 pm
I'll offer $0.50.

I’ll kick in an Ian Happ rookie card.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 04, 2019, 09:49:45 pm
Hmm, I might change mine to a Gary Scott rookie card.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on April 04, 2019, 09:51:26 pm
Cubs get four runs across in the ninth, but Almora strikes out to end it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 10:03:22 pm
1-8?  Wild!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 10:07:41 pm
Is Yu Darvish the worst free agent signing in franchise history?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 04, 2019, 10:09:40 pm
I do wonder what might happen going forward for Theo, if this year doesn't turn upwards.  Theo has pretty much committed to the youngish position players and to the well-used pitchers; kind of a philosophical commitment that young players will get better with age, but heavily-used pitchers will be relatively untouched by time. 

What happens if we go another year and the position guys again don't really get any better?  And if the well-worn pitchers show decline? 

I'm not sure Theo really wants to ride it out on a declining team?  And I'm not sure he's got the mindset to go through another complete rebuild?  If Russell and Schwarber and Almora and Happ don't really look like they're going to get any better, and Bryant doesn't look like he's going to be in the MVP neighborhood anymore, I've got to imagine Theo might be pretty ready to call it quits after the season? 

I didn't track things closely this offseason, but following the Russell stuff, it kinda seemed that Theo was much less interested in talking baseball than about talking domestic abuse issues.  He may well be at a phase in his life where he just really isn't nearly as interested in baseball as he is in other social issues. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 04, 2019, 10:14:51 pm
Craig, no matter what the fanbase may want, we're certainly approaching the end of Theo time.  It's a confluence of his disinterest and his ineffectiveness.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 04, 2019, 10:37:24 pm
Is Yu Darvish the worst free agent signing in franchise history?

I tooooolllllllddddd you sooooooooo...

Heyward is 2nd though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on April 04, 2019, 10:39:06 pm
still Milton Bradley
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 04, 2019, 11:26:42 pm
still Milton Bradley

Actually this could be quite the list.

Todd Hundley would be right up there too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 04, 2019, 11:37:30 pm
A good sub par season will drive out some of the fairweather fans though.

Us diehards will be the only ones left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 05, 2019, 12:19:43 am
Obviously a terrible start.  Really awful.

Even as bad as this has been it still seems to me like it might be just a little early to write off the season.

But I guess not for everybody.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 05, 2019, 12:23:24 am
I do wonder what might happen going forward for Theo, if this year doesn't turn upwards.  Theo has pretty much committed to the youngish position players and to the well-used pitchers; kind of a philosophical commitment that young players will get better with age, but heavily-used pitchers will be relatively untouched by time. 

What happens if we go another year and the position guys again don't really get any better?  And if the well-worn pitchers show decline? 

I'm not sure Theo really wants to ride it out on a declining team?  And I'm not sure he's got the mindset to go through another complete rebuild?  If Russell and Schwarber and Almora and Happ don't really look like they're going to get any better, and Bryant doesn't look like he's going to be in the MVP neighborhood anymore, I've got to imagine Theo might be pretty ready to call it quits after the season? 

I didn't track things closely this offseason, but following the Russell stuff, it kinda seemed that Theo was much less interested in talking baseball than about talking domestic abuse issues.  He may well be at a phase in his life where he just really isn't nearly as interested in baseball as he is in other social issues. 

Sell, sell, sell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on April 05, 2019, 05:47:33 am
Is Yu Darvish the worst free agent signing in franchise history?

He is not even the worst signing by Theo....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 05, 2019, 09:33:27 am
CUBluejays thoughts on improvements.  Take them for what they cost you.

1.) Send Edwards to Iowa and call up Webster.
2.) Find an injury for Montgomery so he can go on an rehab to get back up to full speed.  Bring up Collins until Cedeno is healthy.
3.) Try Zagunis as the lead off hitter and RF.  Heyward is mostly a defensive replacement unless you want to give him a start in CF against a tough righty.
4.) Platoon Bote and Zobrist at 2B.  Bote can also get some time at 3B against lefties with Bryant going to LF.
5.) If the bullpen continues to not preform give Mekkes and Maples a shot.  They can at least strike people out when they walk them, get a case of Dodgeritis to make it happen.
6.) Brach only gets low leverage innings until he proves he can throw a strike
7.) Darvish is your 5th starter and the guy that gets skipped until he proves he can throw strikes. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 05, 2019, 10:52:12 am
Seem like some good suggestions, CubBluejays...will soon need to shake something up.

Zagunis seems like he could lead off...as a DH.  Man he looks shaky defensively.

As for Yu, he may still get it together, but he's certainly lacked control AND command since the World Series of 2017.

In last night's game, one AB was rather typical Darvish.  Couple guys on in the 4th and he makes McCann look terrible on two low breaking balls to get ahead 0-2.  McCann looked anxious.
Rightfully, Contreras sets the mitt for a FB at the letters...NO way McCann catches Yu's 95mph heater in that location after the previous two pitches!  However, Yu throws the FB just above the knees over the middle of the plate and McCann hammers it off the wall to score the 1st run!  (hit SO hard McCann, who is very slow, got a single).  The average college pitcher would have located way better than that!!

The concern with Yu is that he lacks the ability to throw his pitches where he wants them on any sort of regular basis, particularly in important situations (e.g. big games).  Yes, he's got great stuff.  However, if he can't spot his pitches, at the MLB level he's a back-of-rotation sort of starter (with a BIG contract for MANY years). 

Sure hope he figures it out and FAST!  (and that Zagunis is working HARD on his D!)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 05, 2019, 12:48:16 pm
Theo must feel himself to be in a bit of an awkward situation. 
*With a slow start, and fans getting anxious, Theo undoubtedly wants to give the "it's OK, it's early, don't worry, it will take care of itself, just give it time, RELAX" message. 
*But after his whole offseason message being having guys try harder with urgency, and NOT allowing "don't worry, just give it time" mindset, it's probably awkward of him to now encourage the "don't worry, just give it time" mindset for the fans. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2019, 12:49:45 pm
Someday i really want to read any books written by Tom Ricketts, Jed Hoyer, Joe Maddon, and Theo Epstein. 

 Somebody said that Joe wanting to get fired.  I have to admit that sometimes when the camera shifts to him, he looks distracted and disinterested.   I have to wonder if the lack of an extension has become such an issue with him that he's going through the motions, considers it a huge insult to his accomplishments.

Somebody said that Theo jumped the shark.  Hoyer and Theo may realize they traded too many assets to win a WS and too many assets to try to go back to back.  In a book, either might share an acknowledgement of that mistake or maybe reveal that they were promised unending support from the family once they were heading toward dynasty.  We may discover in their books either a sense of betrayal or collapse of trust or sheesh it was just one of those things.

Ricketts may reveal that the stock market decline impacted the Cubs ability to spend more than we know.  It might reveal a breakdown in the relationships of everyone which was strong in 2016 and weak by the end of last year.

And I still want to read the exit reports of last year's coaches.

So much of what has happened is due to Maddon's lack of trust in somebody.  He didn't trust Rondon, culminating in Chapman.  He didn't trust Strop, culminating in Wade.  He didn't trust Hendricks, so we ended up with Quintana.  Ad finitum.    All I'm saying is that some moves that weakened our farm didn't strengthen the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 05, 2019, 06:28:11 pm
Pedro Ararujo was a Rule 5 pick by the Orioles 2 years ago and didn’t have enough service time to allow the Orioles to keep him. The Cubs sent him back to the Orioles for $750,000 in IFA money.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2019, 02:50:39 am
Expect a pitching move or two before Saturday’s game.--Jesse Rogers

Gammons says Webster is coming to Chicago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 06, 2019, 08:21:41 am
one or two more losses and Joe will be doing an exit interview, but I'm not sure we're going to do better.  We're talking major clusterf.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bluebufoon on April 06, 2019, 08:27:12 am
I have never liked Joe Maddon, especially how he handles pitchers. I realize alot of our roster issues fall on Theo but I look forward to hopefully Girardi fixing this mess once Joe is gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 06, 2019, 09:15:15 am
It's way too early to panic.  I still expect them to be at or near .500 by the end of the month.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 06, 2019, 10:13:30 am
It's way too early to panic.  I still expect them to be at or near .500 by the end of the month.

It's clearly not too early for some people to panic!

Every Cub fan is deeply disappointed with the start of the season. The pitching has been absolutely horrible, for the most part. The offense has been, for the most part, very good. Some here were predicting the offense would pick up where it left off last year. That, anyway, has not been the case.

The starting rotation has been very disappointing.  But who here objected to the Cubs getting Darvish?  Or resigning Hamels?  They have both been lousy so far, but there is no particular reason to think they are likely to continue to pitch like they did in their first game or two. Some here always have and always will doubt Hendricks, but I fully expect him to have a Kyle Hendricks type year when the dust settles.  Even Quintana seems unlikely to pitch as badly as he did his first start. Meanwhile Lester has been ... Lester. Solid.

The bullpen has been especially bad. Given that the Cubs had one of the better bullpens in the NL last season, it seems to me a little odd for over the top criticism of the front office's ability to build bullpens. 

Maybe the Cubs will turn out to be a crappy team by the end of the year, but I doubt that. They may or may not win the division, but expecting the first 7 (or 10) games to predict a full season is nonsensical, and everyone here knows it.  But sometimes emotions rule. Fortunately I don't believe that will be the case for Theo or Joe and hopefully not for the players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on April 06, 2019, 10:35:00 am
Coming out of April 10+ games behind a very good Milwaukee team could very well kill the Cub's chances at the division. They aren't this bad, not even close. But a division can be lost in a single bad stretch of the season, no matter when it occurs. The Cubs need to take one of these next two games. Doing so is surprisingly crucial this early in the season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 06, 2019, 11:28:53 am
Jeff Passan  @JeffPassan   1h1 hour ago
I typically am not the guy to overreact to seven games ... but in the last 35 seasons, per @ESPNStatsInfo, 68 teams have started 1-6 or worse and only three have made the playoffs. In the last dozen years, just four have finished over .500. Right now, the Chicago Cubs are 1-6.

The 2-7 Red Sox and the 1-6 Cubs have something in common besides getting off to a less than stellar start - both teams have yet to play their home opener.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2019, 12:25:57 pm
As has been reported elsewhere, hearing that Carl Edwards Jr. is expected to be optioned to AAA Iowa before tonight’s game. A bullpen reinforcement or two on the way.--Bastian
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2019, 12:26:30 pm
Montgomery to the DL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2019, 12:33:18 pm
Look for Allen Webster or Kyle Ryan —or both—in Cubs pen for Brewers game tonight.--Wittenmyer
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 06, 2019, 12:56:48 pm
Nice job there, CBJ.  Looks like Theo and Jed have been reading your posts.  :)

CUBluejays thoughts on improvements.  Take them for what they cost you.

1.) Send Edwards to Iowa and call up Webster.
2.) Find an injury for Montgomery so he can go on an rehab to get back up to full speed. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 06, 2019, 12:59:38 pm
Montgomery to the DL IL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 06, 2019, 02:14:23 pm
Who's going to be the 40-man casualty to make room for Webster?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 06, 2019, 02:34:50 pm
I'll vote Tseng? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 06, 2019, 03:03:18 pm
You're right.

DFA'd.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 06, 2019, 11:42:26 pm
Baez is looking like he could lead the league in home runs this season. He seems to be just randomly poking them out to right and right center.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 07, 2019, 12:24:19 pm
Nice to see Hamels with a good outing. The bullpen not so much.

But now for something different: the Cubs offense is 2nd in MLB in OPS (.918), 1st in BA (.307), 1st in OBP (.399) and 4th in SLG (.519).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 07, 2019, 06:40:04 pm
Nice to see Hamels with a good outing. The bullpen not so much.

But now for something different: the Cubs offense is 2nd in MLB in OPS (.918), 1st in BA (.307), 1st in OBP (.399) and 4th in SLG (.519).

Or, to put it another way, we just had a 9-game offensive run the likes of which we’re unlikely to repeat this season and we’re 2-7.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on April 08, 2019, 02:08:56 pm
This is disheartening. One of the most despicable persons alive rn

https://twitter.com/pwsullivan/status/1115326161498853376?s=21
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on April 08, 2019, 02:53:28 pm
Smh

https://twitter.com/madkenney/status/1115267183163080711
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 08, 2019, 04:37:34 pm
They took the sign down.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 09, 2019, 07:37:20 am
Wonder if Bud Norris is healthy.  He was pretty decent in '17 and '18 and was averaging close to 95 last year, but was supposedly throwing 90-91 when the Blue Jays released him.  He'd likely be cheap and a possible "hard to do much worse" option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 09, 2019, 08:50:08 am
He a less than quality, quality guy. Even if he was peak Norris I wouldn’t want him anywhere near the clubhouse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 09, 2019, 09:46:15 am
Beggars (or PTR) can't be choosers.  After trading for Daniel Murphy, declining to cut ties with Addison Russell, signing a TV deal with Sinclair and adding Betsy Devos to the ownership group are we going to say no to bullpen help on character grounds? 

Mind you if Norris is really throwing 90 it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on April 09, 2019, 09:57:56 am
Nats are looking at Norris as well, reportedly...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 09, 2019, 10:15:46 am
Beggars (or PTR) can't be choosers.  After trading for Daniel Murphy, declining to cut ties with Addison Russell, signing a TV deal with Sinclair and adding Betsy Devos to the ownership group are we going to say no to bullpen help on character grounds? 

Well Devos and Sinclair has anything to do with what happens in the Cubs clubhouse so that doesn't really apply.  Murphy and Russell from all accounts are good teammates.  Norris was snitching on teammates to Matheny and picking on a minority team after making racist statements in the past.  Norris is way different and I wouldn't want to get rid of Webster for him even if he wasn't an a-hole.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 09, 2019, 12:05:45 pm
Rogers is reporting Lester to the IL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 09, 2019, 01:12:21 pm
Best to be cautious with Lester.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 09, 2019, 04:00:15 pm
The reports of Jon Lester going on the IL may be premature.  Cubs Den is the only source besides Jesse Rogers indicating that the move HAS been made.

The results of an MRI are not yet known and Joe Maddon says he may miss one start, possibly two.

With a decent chance of Wednesday and Thursday night being rained out it might be May April 23 before he'd be needed for a second start.  There is no reason the decision has to be made today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 09, 2019, 04:20:24 pm
The reports of Jon Lester going on the IL may be premature.  Cubs Den is the only source besides Jesse Rogers indicating that the move HAS been made.

The results of an MRI are not yet known and Joe Maddon says he may miss one start, possibly two.

With a decent chance of Wednesday and Thursday night being rained out it might be May 23 before he'd be needed for a second start.  There is no reason the decision has to be made today.

It doesn't have to be done today, because the Cubs don't have a game.  Putting him on the IL tomorrow before the game would give them another relief pitcher who could be swapped out.  You could do something like Wick/Norwood for 3 games, Underwood for a piggyback, then Maples. 

Bastian mentioned that with off days the Cubs only need a fifth starter Sunday (without rainouts) and April 27.  Lester would be eligible to come off the DL April 19th.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 09, 2019, 04:29:42 pm
It doesn't have to be done today, because the Cubs don't have a game.  Putting him on the IL tomorrow before the game would give them another relief pitcher who could be swapped out.  You could do something like Wick/Norwood for 3 games, Underwood for a piggyback, then Maples. 

Bastian mentioned that with off days the Cubs only need a fifth starter Sunday (without rainouts) and April 27.  Lester would be eligible to come off the DL April 19th.
Carl Edwards, Jr. might be considered if he has another effective outing or two.  Last night he gave up two hits and struck out three in 1.1 innings.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 09, 2019, 06:19:43 pm
I think Edwards needs to stay at Iowa for a month or more no matter what. He needs to really mentally reset before he comes back up, and a return after 2-3 good outings doesn't do that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 09, 2019, 06:39:45 pm
That makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 09, 2019, 08:44:37 pm
At least a month, and then only if he is dominant, as he should be considering his age and stuff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 10, 2019, 12:20:31 pm
Lester to DL, Tim Collins called up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on April 10, 2019, 01:17:01 pm
“No money”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2019/04/10/baseball-team-values-2019-yankees-lead-league-at-46-billion/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 10, 2019, 01:38:13 pm
Values of almost all companies has gone up almost 50 percent in the past three years.  A booming economy such as we have had, coupled with a record employment country wide is always going to increase the value of most companies, especially those that cater to the recreational industries.

I wonder if the Cubs payroll has increased by a proportionate amount?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 10, 2019, 01:59:29 pm
Making America great again.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 10, 2019, 04:40:39 pm
Quote
Bruce Levine

 
@MLBBruceLevine
 4m4 minutes ago
More
Jon Lester on the injured list.Joe Maddon said his comeback date is open ended . Tyler Chatwood  goes in  Lester’s place Sunday .Cubs do not need 5th starter again until April 27th .
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on April 10, 2019, 11:59:09 pm
Had never heard of Tim Collins before; turns out he's been doing a bodybuilding regimen to make up for his lack of size:

https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a19530381/the-transformation-of-tim-collins/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 11, 2019, 04:45:19 pm
End of an era: Cubs have released Jen-Ho Tseng.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on April 11, 2019, 06:55:36 pm
Disappointing; I had been hoping to see him succeed.  Hope he hooks on somewhere.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 11, 2019, 10:43:47 pm
According to Cubs beat writers on Twitter, Caratini hurt his hand in his last AB, possibly hamate bone fracture. Since they have no catching depth, that's a big concern.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 11, 2019, 10:50:57 pm
Rub some dirt on it and keep playing.  Bunch of millionaire wussies.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 11, 2019, 11:03:55 pm
Sounds like Caratini is out 3-4 weeks minimum.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 12, 2019, 12:14:23 am
Karma is calling in all its debts at once for this team.  Shame for Caratini, after getting off to such a great start.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 12, 2019, 06:54:34 am
Sucks about Caratini. If it is a fracture it will sap his power even when he comes back. Did anyone notice if he wraps his bottom hand over the knob of the bat?  Eno Saris thinks that is related to hamate injuries. I wonder if Rivera has an opt out in his Mets deal?  Getting somebody better than Davis would be nice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on April 12, 2019, 08:42:34 am
Sandy Leon?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 12, 2019, 10:46:37 am
No one could ever have predicted that catching depth would be a problem.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 12, 2019, 10:50:03 am
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D39ouzGWwAAgPha.png:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 12, 2019, 10:52:04 am
Caratini is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  Surgery is scheduled for Monday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 13, 2019, 11:13:56 am
Rogers is reporting Lester to the IL.


When did the DL become the IL?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 13, 2019, 11:28:10 am
Backlash at the word "disabled" prompting the change to the Injured List.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 13, 2019, 12:03:19 pm

When did the DL become the IL?

This past winter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 13, 2019, 01:00:16 pm
Like the handicapped man who complained to Dell  that his PC kept calling him an "Invalid."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 15, 2019, 03:29:06 pm
The Angels makeup game will be on June 3 at 3:05 CT. It works out pretty well for the Cubs--that's a Monday, and the Cubs will have just had an off day the previous Thursday. They'll be coming home from a road trip that ends in St. Louis, so not a difficult travel day for them.

The Angels probably won't like it, though. It comes at the end of a 7 game road trip to Oakland and Seattle. Then they have to fly across the country for one game, then back home for an 8 game homestand.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 15, 2019, 04:05:57 pm
The Angels makeup game will be on June 3 at 3:05 CT. It works out pretty well for the Cubs--that's a Monday, and the Cubs will have just had an off day the previous Thursday. They'll be coming home from a road trip that ends in St. Louis, so not a difficult travel day for them.

The Angels probably won't like it, though. It comes at the end of a 7 game road trip to Oakland and Seattle. Then they have to fly across the country for one game, then back home for an 8 game homestand.
That gives the Cubs a stretch of 34 games in 35 days between May 31 and July 4.  After an off day on July 5, they play two games with the White Sox followed by the All-Star break.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 15, 2019, 04:22:50 pm
Great, fire up the excuse train early.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 15, 2019, 05:41:20 pm
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQPBQXo8V4UNY0ny_1DvfV5adiLTvP5-KW9TEy9pOYXw_2sSL_a9Q)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 15, 2019, 06:20:48 pm
Mike Montgomery scheduled to pitch rehab game at SB tomorrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 16, 2019, 08:21:26 am
The early-season hand-wringing for our Cubs makes sense to me...I certainly do it.  So many questions, certainly with our pitching...and certainly with our young, core talent.

Part of the hard part is, with young talent, you have to let it play out.  Who knows what some of our guys will become as hitters.  Will they adjust?  Will they grow as they build plate appearances?

It's unfair to compare any players with MVP Christian Yelich, but he's yet another example of the unpredictability of young players.  I'm sure the Marlins are feeling that way about now.  Hats off to the Brewers for seeing the potential upside...and, no doubt, he's WAY exceeded their expectations.

No doubt, Yelich is a freak, who was facing MLB pitching at age 21.  However, by the START of last year, he had 2,800 plate appearances.  Yelich wasn't Yelich before last year, by which point he had 2600+ ABs and had grown into his body.  Who knew he would morph into Mr. MVP?

Maybe guys like Schwarber, Russell, Happ, Almora etc. will never get any better.  But the reality is: there's not a scout in the world who knows for sure.   Likely, some will and some won't improve much.

We will just have to remain patient...well, as patient as we can.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 16, 2019, 10:50:44 am
MLB is investigating a bunch of racist messages sent to Carl Edwards after he was demoted to Iowa on social media.  People are stupid.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on April 16, 2019, 11:12:35 am
MLB is investigating a bunch of racist messages sent to Carl Edwards after he was demoted to Iowa on social media.  People are stupid.

Probably Joe Ricketts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 16, 2019, 11:19:58 am
Former Cub Zambrano eyes return to big leagues

Help is on the WAY!

Former Chicago Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano said he thinks that he can overcome his age, his reputation and a long major league absence to make it back to the big leagues.

''Why not?'' Zambrano said Monday from Marlins Park, where the Cubs are playing this week. ''Bartolo [Colon] pitched until he was 45. I'm 37.''

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Zambrano showed off an email from the independent Chicago Dogs that welcomed him to this season's team. The Dogs play in the American Association of Independent Professional Baseball, and their season starts May 17.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 16, 2019, 01:05:05 pm
The Cubs will have a roster situation to solve when Addison Russell returns from his suspension on May 3.  Will Mark Zagunis go back to Iowa leaving only three outfielders (plus Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant) or will they cut a pitcher?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 16, 2019, 01:08:09 pm
Hopefully they'll do what the Blue Jays did with Osuna and trade Russell just before they have to activate him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 16, 2019, 01:29:43 pm
Or...could Russell be optioned to Iowa? The Cubs never sent him back down after calling him up, so he definitely has options. But I can't remember exactly how service time figures in. It probably wouldn't be the worst thing for his baseball development considering he has never really developed, and it would definitely be less of a distraction for a team that may still be trying to find its footing in a couple weeks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 16, 2019, 01:42:52 pm
By the way, does the May 3 date take Sunday's postponement into account? If not, that would push his eligibility back to May 4. If that's the case (or if there's another rainout that isn't made up until sometime after May 3), I believe the maximum number of days he could be on the major league roster is 149. That means he would not be able to achieve the 150 days on roster incentive in his contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 16, 2019, 01:44:33 pm
Or...could Russell be optioned to Iowa? The Cubs never sent him back down after calling him up, so he definitely has options. But I can't remember exactly how service time figures in. It probably wouldn't be the worst thing for his baseball development considering he has never really developed, and it would definitely be less of a distraction for a team that may still be trying to find its footing in a couple weeks.

Yes, Russell can be optioned.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 16, 2019, 01:48:38 pm
By the way, does the May 3 date take Sunday's postponement into account?
Yes, I factored that in.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 16, 2019, 02:50:12 pm
From an August, 2018 article on Robinson Cano:

"Suspended players are allowed to play Minor League games in the final two weeks before their reinstatement. "

For Addison Russell, that would begin this Friday.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on April 16, 2019, 05:22:28 pm
Huh.  I wonder whether the Cubs will let him do that.  There are optics considerations. . . .
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 16, 2019, 06:03:52 pm
I hope he comes back and wins MVP.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 16, 2019, 06:07:16 pm
From an August, 2018 article on Robinson Cano:

"Suspended players are allowed to play Minor League games in the final two weeks before their reinstatement. "

For Addison Russell, that would begin this Friday.

It would seem foolish NOT to take advantage of that, and perhaps even to leave him down for a while longer.  He has not seen major league pitching and wasn't even in spring training.  Just sending him out his first day against major league pitching would almost seem designed to make him fail.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 16, 2019, 07:13:03 pm
He’s been playing in EST.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on April 16, 2019, 07:36:33 pm

''Why not?'' Zambrano said Monday from Marlins Park, where the Cubs are playing this week. ''Bartolo [Colon] pitched until he was 45. I'm 37.''

Wait, "pitched"?  Bartolo has officially retired?  I was looking forward to someone signing him this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 16, 2019, 07:42:44 pm
Bartolo seems like a guy who will announce his retirement sometime around opening day 2028 even though he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch in years.

It’s possible he’s thrown his last MLB pitch, but I wouldn’t expect an official retirement any time soon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on April 16, 2019, 07:49:52 pm
Russell was definitely taking part in spring training.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on April 17, 2019, 12:35:30 pm
Random piece of useless information: The two most added position players in ESPN Fantasy baseball this week are Dan Vogelbach and Jason Heyward
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 17, 2019, 09:22:05 pm
Run differential this season

Best in NL Central:    #Cubs     +18
Worst in NL Central: #Brewers   -2
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 18, 2019, 04:59:46 pm
Quote from: CBS Sports
General manager Jed Hoyer said Thursday that Russell (suspension) will begin a minor-league rehab stint next week that is expected to last seven days, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.

Russell has 11 games left to serve on the 40-game suspension he received last fall for violating Major League Baseball's Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Since the suspension was levied, Hoyer noted that Russell "has been compliant with everything we have asked him to do and then some," which suggests the Cubs intend to add him back to the active roster when first eligible May 3. The brief stint in the minors should allow Russell to pick up enough at-bats for the Cubs to fell comfortable deploying him as their everyday shortstop once he's activated. Manager Joe Maddon already said earlier this week that Javier Baez would shift over to second base once Russell is reinstated, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 18, 2019, 05:58:03 pm
Aside from the fact that moving Baez to 2B is dumb, the other implication from that statement is that Russell should be playing every day and taking the option of Zobrist or Descalso at 2B off the table when he does. Which is also dumb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 18, 2019, 06:04:22 pm
If only Zobrist and Descalso had experience in the OF or 3B and Bryant could play the OF. The Cubs are a much better defensive team with Baez and Russell at 2B and SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 18, 2019, 06:05:18 pm
The positive statements about Addison Russell, including how much playing time he will get, could be nothing more than trying to assuage any worries potential trade partners may have.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 18, 2019, 06:27:52 pm
The positive statements about Addison Russell, including how much playing time he will get, could be nothing more than trying to assuage any worries potential trade partners may have.

We can only hope.

Right now the Cubs' best lineup against RHP is probably Descalso at 2B, Bote at 3B and Bryant and Heyward in the OF - the debate being whether the third OF would be Zobrist or Schwarber.  You better hope Schwarber at least gets to the point where he's an automatic start at least in a platoon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 18, 2019, 09:15:35 pm
Cubs are getting kind of close to having to remove two players from the 40-man.

Oscar de la Cruz made a rehab start tonight at MB, so in a couple weeks he goes from the restricted list to the 40-man.

Ditto of course for Addison Russell after he completes his rehab.

I suppose the leading candidate to get bumped off the 40-man is Rowan Wick. After that, Duane Underwood maybe?

Or, Tony Barnette if Cubs decide not to activate him. Or, a bullpen guy currently up gets dropped from the 40-man too to make room for Barnette in majors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 18, 2019, 09:47:02 pm
I would think Rosario is on the bubble.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 18, 2019, 10:29:20 pm
I would think Oscar de la Cruz would be an excellent candidate....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 18, 2019, 10:37:35 pm
Cubs position players have a combined 3.6 bWAR this season so far.

3.1 of that 3.6 is Contreras, Baez, and Heyward, combined.

Notwithstanding the lack of offense for most other guys, Cubs are second in NL in runs scored per game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 19, 2019, 10:42:01 am
From Today's Game topic

I feel strongly about domestic abuse too. But let's be fair and honest about the facts. The Cubs have required a good deal more than the suspension to consider bringing back Russell. Theo has spoken at length about this more than once and I assume you've read his statements. Reasonable people can absolutely disagree about whether the Cubs' course of action has been the right one, or the best one. But we should all agree about the basic  facts of what that course of action has been.

Ron, I agree but will offer another possibility that, as far as I know, has yet to be considered:

The Ricketts family does not instruct Joe Maddon on lineup changes nor do they advise Theo and Jed on personnel moves.  But could the Addison Russell situation be a case where they decide to exert some "ownership prerogative"?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on April 19, 2019, 11:15:41 am
https://twitter.com/infieldchatter/status/1119239226250235904

Nice spot on Yu
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 19, 2019, 12:40:52 pm
The positive statements about Addison Russell, including how much playing time he will get, could be nothing more than trying to assuage any worries potential trade partners may have.

It might well be that.  Or, it might just be true.  We should know shortly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 19, 2019, 02:42:43 pm
Fangraphs on what Heyward is doing so far this year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jason-heywards-surprising-new-strategy-for-success-will-shock-you/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 19, 2019, 11:14:08 pm
Cubs are now EVEN in the loss column with Brewers and Cards, as both lose tonight.

Bucs with a 2.63 ERA (Giants are second in NL at 3.16) are in first place. Their pitching might be very good all season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 20, 2019, 11:14:04 am
Morrow shut down, no timetable to resume throwing.  Just inexcusable not to have done more to reinforce this bullpen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 20, 2019, 12:02:09 pm
Lol
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 20, 2019, 07:36:54 pm
Has Theo Epstein turned into Jim Hendry, but worse?

Discuss.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 20, 2019, 07:45:58 pm
Has Theo Epstein turned into Jim Hendry, but worse?

Discuss.

Both are quality, quality guys.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 20, 2019, 11:19:03 pm
If Theo ever turns into Jim Hendry, at least he'll do so with a Cubs World Championship (and a couple from Boston)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 21, 2019, 09:38:39 am
I think that Hendrey did very well given the restraints on him by ownership.  But Epstein has done a much better job balancing the short and long terms, in spite of the pressure from media and fans.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 21, 2019, 10:46:10 am
Rosario to Iowa, Alec Mills up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 21, 2019, 12:02:50 pm
Rosario to Iowa, Alec Mills up.

Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  1h1 hour ago
This gives the Cubs some length out of the bullpen behind Chatwood today. Maddon said TC could probably handle 75-80 pitches, but doesn’t hurt to have safety net.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 21, 2019, 12:25:45 pm
Forfeit
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on April 21, 2019, 01:04:28 pm
ROCK-THROWER
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 21, 2019, 05:53:41 pm
Seems like Hendry was strong in the scouting department, but Theo vs Hendry is like chess vs checkers.

Of course, the game has changed SO much in the past 40 years!  Had Hendry "grown up" around baseball with the analytics Theo was steeped in early on, no doubt Hendry's approach would have leveraged analytics FAR more, too!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 23, 2019, 02:39:00 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  24m24 minutes ago
Cubs report at 5 CT on ESPN 1000 today from Wrigley. Looks like the Cubs are bringing Randy Rosario back up for David Bote who’s on paternity leave. Need lefties v Dodgers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 23, 2019, 02:52:56 pm
Jesse Rogers suggests the Cubs could look to trade Montgomery for a reliever:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26582024

I think it's mostly speculation, but they are stretching him out as a starter on his rehab assignment. I had wondered yesterday if a trade could be an option.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 23, 2019, 04:00:18 pm
Suspended Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell to join Iowa Cubs on Wednesday

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2019/04/23/addison-russell-chicago-cubs-iowa-cubs-major-league-baseball-domestic-violence-mlb/3550121002/?csp=chromepush
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 23, 2019, 06:43:36 pm
Nightengale with a tone deaf puff piece on Addison Russell:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/04/23/addison-russell-cubs-domestic-violence-suspension-return/3548992002/

Russell refers to coming back from his domestic violence suspension as "overcoming this challenge" in the article. Very poor choice of words--to me, that sounds like someone who still thinks he was one of the victims in this situation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 23, 2019, 07:05:53 pm
I feel your pain Addison.

Apparently Im one of the few men here who doesnt think women are perfect,innocent,mistake free,flowers and are always pure of heart.

Me and you know better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on April 23, 2019, 07:28:59 pm
Maybe the challenge is to become a better person. Not giving in to his base instincts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 23, 2019, 07:38:00 pm
br is extremely anti-Russell.  Which is his prerogative.  Don't agree.

Dusty is trolling.

Find the middle ground.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 24, 2019, 02:00:50 pm
Christopher Kamka  @ckamka  10m10 minutes ago
Javier Báez home run spray charts 2018 vs 2019
(from baseballsavant)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D48HbNxX4AMGkxr.png:small)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D48HaJVW0AEg3wa.png:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 24, 2019, 02:59:36 pm
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs  8m8 minutes ago
The #Cubs today activated INF David Bote off of the paternity list. RHP Alec Mills was optioned to @IowaCubs following last night’s game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 24, 2019, 05:03:35 pm
I feel your pain Addison.

Apparently Im one of the few men here who doesnt think women are perfect,innocent,mistake free,flowers and are always pure of heart.

Me and you know better.

You are not close to being alone, though those determined to show the world how liberal and virtuous they are are seldom among the people facing life honestly.  Males are actually more often victims of domestic violence than females.  http://theconversation.com/more-boys-hurt-by-dating-violence-than-girls-102829   https://www.inverse.com/article/48537-teenage-boys-relationship-abused-surveys

While there is far less meaningful data available on the subject, anecdotally evidence also strongly suggests that males are also victims of false and purely vindictive or manipulative claims far more often than women.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 24, 2019, 05:05:49 pm
br is extremely anti-Russell.  Which is his prerogative.  Don't agree.

Dusty is trolling.

Find the middle ground.

Dusty was responding to a comment from br which even you appear to admit is somewhat less than objective.  RESPONDING to a provocative comment would seem to amount to BEING trolled, to to trolling.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2019, 01:57:38 am
Jason Heyward on pace for 37 home runs, 103 RBI, 103 BB, 66 K, and 7 doubles.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 25, 2019, 02:41:14 am
Unexpected blessings...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 25, 2019, 03:07:07 am
Maddon on how hard it might be to move Baez off SS for Russell:
“That’s still a discussion we have to have.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 25, 2019, 03:46:43 am
Heyward isn't doing it with mirrors.  He's walking more, K-ing (a lot) less, hitting to all fields, hitting off lefties, hard contract and decent launch angle.  It may all go to pot but as it stands it sure hasn't been a fluke.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on April 25, 2019, 07:40:43 am
That homer tonight reminded me of the one he hit off Arrietta in the NLDS as a Cardinal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 25, 2019, 10:56:07 am
Has he pulled some of his HR's?  Or mostly opposite way? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 25, 2019, 11:22:05 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  50m50 minutes ago
Collins optioned to make room for Lester
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 25, 2019, 11:35:34 am
A really nice interview with Jason Heyward by Jesse Rogers.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26598870/great-just-contribute-jason-heyward-highs-lows-cubs

Really easy to root for this guy. So glad he's having such a good season so far.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 25, 2019, 11:50:18 am

Bruce Levine

@MLBBruceLevine
Joe Maddon said Addison Russell will take reps at second base in preparing for  his big league return

I think we all assume that Addison Russell will be a very good defensive 2B, largely because SS is considered, generally, to be a more difficult position. But they are different positions and some adjustments will be necessary on his part, particularly on double plays. Nobody really knows how he will do there until he has played there for a while. I'm glad they are testing him while he is in the minors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 25, 2019, 12:00:08 pm

Sahadev Sharma

@sahadevsharma
Maddon said that no decisions have been made just yet, but they've started to discuss how to handle Addison Russell's potential return. They will have him play some second in Iowa and will consider many factors when deciding where he plays upon his return.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 25, 2019, 12:18:59 pm
Russell came up and played 2B when Castro was at SS.  Russell was an excellent defender there as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 25, 2019, 12:26:27 pm
With the 2-HR output, Cubs have now climbed up to tie for 20th/21st in mlb in HR's, and tie for 10th/11th in the NL. 

Thank goodness for Heyward's unexpected power output.  That's possibly kinda fluky, but it would sure be fun if it wasn't.  Without those unexpected Heyward homers, Cubs might be down at 25th.  And Baez is going to hit a bunch more, but might not sustain a 59-HR pace, either. 

While Heyward, Baez, and Contreras are obviously homering at an unsustainable pace, the flip is likewise true that Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber are below normal.  So, if those six guys all kind of revert to mean, Cubs have a chance to stay not far below league average in HR's.  Maybe if things break right they'll move up to or even perhaps above league average. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2019, 02:25:40 pm
Listened to Theo on The Score. Among other things about Russell, Theo noted that seven days in minors not a very long time to get ready for majors. Also guarded about Russell generally..”one day at a time” etc.

My takeaway is that decent chance Russell is optioned for a time after the seven days is up rather than brought up to majors. Theo didn’t get into any of that specifically but that’s my sense of what might happen next week.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 25, 2019, 02:43:39 pm
Even if he is optioned, they still have to make a drop in the 40 man
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 25, 2019, 04:20:16 pm
Bruce Levine

@MLBBruceLevine
Joe Maddon said Addison Russell will take reps at second base in preparing for  his big league return

I think we all assume that Addison Russell will be a very good defensive 2B, largely because SS is considered, generally, to be a more difficult position. But they are different positions and some adjustments will be necessary on his part, particularly on double plays. Nobody really knows how he will do there until he has played there for a while. I'm glad they are testing him while he is in the minors.

I don't think anyone has to assume anything - Russell played there for most of a season when he came up and did very well.  Did he forget?  I doubt it.  If he struggles at 2B it'll be because he's pouting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 25, 2019, 09:43:54 pm
Glad to hear Russell is getting reps at 2nd. 

Hope he continues to work on his personal issues and hits as he did in 2016 when he returns.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2019, 11:57:01 pm
https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/1121611779887517697
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 26, 2019, 12:29:45 am
Clearly Chili Davis' fault.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 26, 2019, 09:19:51 am
Jon Greenberg has a good article on Theo's comments regarding Addison Russell's status with the Cubs.  Here are some excerpts:

“My thoughts on Addison Russell are the same as they’ve been that we’re taking this day to day which is appropriate,” Epstein said. “This is one situation where it is not appropriate to get ahead of the story. Addison has a lot of work to do going forward. There’s no finish line here. He’s been compliant. He’s put a lot of work in away from the field to try and grow as a person and improve his relationships. To this point, he’s starting to get results which is really important for him and more importantly for the people in his life.

“That work continues and it’s a day-to-day process with him putting that work in and him living up to the standards that we’ve set out. He’s begun his minor-league rehab assignment, you know, there are baseball considerations that start to creep in, even if it’s not as important as the work he’s doing off the field. But he is in what amounts to a spring training, where he’s getting ready to return to play, but we’re not getting ahead of the story. Day to day, he’s going to be down there for seven days and then we’ll make a determination about what’s best for the organization and nothing is promised, whatsoever.”

“Up to this point, if you asked the people in Addison’s life, you’d see that there’s been some positives that have come out of this thus far and obviously his behavior to this point has lived up to the standards we’ve required of him. But I reminded him of this the other day, just because he’s moving out of the complex in Arizona and going to Iowa doesn’t mean there’s a finish line. Just like if he gets back to the Cubs, it doesn’t mean there’s a finish line. He’s responsible going forward for continuing to grow as a person and improve the relationships around him. He has to continue to be committed to having a positive outcome with everything that’s involved in this situation, just as we are.”

“From the work I’ve put in, I think the people around him see a positive change and that’s important,” Epstein said. “He shouldn’t win any awards for that. He doesn’t deserve any plaudits. But I think that’s important. With the decision that we’ve made, we’re looking for positive developments and having good relationships and more stability is very positive.”

https://theathletic.com/946191/2019/04/25/is-addison-russell-returning-to-the-cubs-next-week-next-month-maybe-but-nothing-is-promised-whatsover/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 26, 2019, 09:22:02 am
This pretty much sums it up:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/04/26/epstein-risking-interrupting-baezs-performance-to-accommodate-russell-would-be-a-questionable-move/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 26, 2019, 09:24:25 am
Theo also addressed the question of whether Javy will stay at SS or be moved to 2B upon Russell's return, without providing a definitive answer.  The first two paragraphs are from Greenberg, everything after in quotes is from Theo.

So would the Cubs really move Báez out of shortstop, given the way he’s playing right now? I asked Epstein about it and in reading his quotes, you would probably guess Báez is the everyday shortstop going forward and Russell, if and when he comes up, will get some spot starts as Joe Maddon mixes and matches lineups.

There is a case to play Russell at shortstop and Báez at second base for defensive purposes — Daniel Descalso is not quite as adept as Báez at second — but it goes beyond the metrics. Báez has matured into a centerpiece of the team, if not the centerpiece, and that carries some weight.

“I think everyone recognizes how important he is as a central member of this team and the energy that he provides and the things he can do on the field and the spirit with which he does them, how important that is to all of us,” Epstein said. “He’s one of our most important players and I think there’s a lot to be said for creating consistency for your most important players, creating reliability, putting them into situations where they know they’re relied upon and can impact the game, reduce variables for them, those type of things. But there are a lot of other considerations too. That’s not lost on anybody and, look, Addison is going to play some shortstop in his rehab, he’s also going to play some second base and he’s also not back yet. So I think it’s a question for another day.

“Javy is obviously right at the very center, along with a couple other crucial players, of everything good that we do. Risking interrupting that if you don’t have to would be a questionable move. That said, it’s not the only factor.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 26, 2019, 09:28:30 am
Quote from: Ken Rosenthal
"You don't risk deflating one of the game's biggest stars to make room for a player who is lucky his team even kept him around."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 26, 2019, 09:31:29 am
After losing their first 3 series, the Cubs have won 4 series and tied 1.  I'd like to see them consistently avoid losing series.  That would keep them at or near the top of the NL Central. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 26, 2019, 04:22:30 pm
The lack of a "definitive answer" is maddening and mystifying.  It would be very easy to end this nonsense by just unequivocally stating that Baez is the SS and isn't going anywhere, yet they continue to dick around the way they are.

Or perhaps I should have said "Maddoning", since there are rumors Theo wants to do just that and Maddon is resisting, wanting Russell back at SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 26, 2019, 05:19:31 pm
Maples called up, Rosario optioned.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 26, 2019, 08:39:17 pm
If Maples can just throw his fastball for a strike.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 26, 2019, 08:48:33 pm
Maples is the pitching embodiment of the Chinese curse, "may you live in interesting times".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 26, 2019, 10:17:32 pm
Here's a surprise.



Jesse Rogers[size=78%]‏[/size][/i][/size][size=78%] [/size]
@ESPNChiCubs
Cubs tops in the NL: .284 with runners on and 2 outs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 26, 2019, 10:21:32 pm
Like 95% has gotta be Descalso, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 27, 2019, 08:54:58 am
In his last three games, Willson Contreras is 1-10 with 5Ks.  Friday night, he was swinging at pitches well out of the strike zone.

Joe, give the guy a break.


Edit:
Theo/Jed - If Taylor Davis is that bad, get someone else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 27, 2019, 06:34:10 pm
While Heyward, Baez, and Contreras are obviously homering at an unsustainable pace, the flip is likewise true that Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber are below normal.  So, if those six guys all kind of revert to mean, Cubs have a chance to stay not far below league average in HR's. 

It is also possible that back, shoulder and overall talent limitations for each respectively might have their performance the rest of the year remain pretty much what it is.

I also hope each reverts to mean, but for all three to be as weak as they have been for as long as they have been, you would have to think the odds are unlikely all three will recover.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on April 27, 2019, 06:51:19 pm
Jon Greenberg has a good article on Theo's comments regarding Addison Russell's status with the Cubs.  Here are some excerpts:

“He’s put a lot of work in away from the field to try and grow as a person and improve his relationships. To this point, he’s starting to get results which is really important for him and more importantly for the people in his life.... Up to this point, if you asked the people in Addison’s life, you’d see that there’s been some positives that have come out of this thus far and obviously his behavior to this point has lived up to the standards we’ve required of him.... He’s responsible going forward for continuing to grow as a person and improve the relationships around him. He has to continue to be committed to having a positive outcome with everything that’s involved in this situation, just as we are....

From the work I’ve put in, I think the people around him see a positive change and that’s important,” Epstein said.... “With the decision that we’ve made, we’re looking for positive developments and having good relationships and more stability is very positive.”


Wow.

What is Theo doing -- interviewing the women Russell dates?  Or is he forcing Russell to reconcile with his wife and then just basing his opinion on whether she is happy at any given moment?

What often happens is once someone gets in trouble for domestic violence, whether genuine or simply claimed, is they end up completely controlled by those they are involved with, and often abusively manipulated by partners who know that ALL they have to do to hang the sucker is to make the claim of abuse, whether it is founded or unfounded.

In the case of one client I defended on charges of domestic violence, when I subpoenaed the 911 tape of the call his wife made and I then boosted the audio to the maximum gain, you could hear the wife pause in her allegations and then the operator ask her, "Ma'am, are you still there?  Is everything alright?"  The wife still did not respond, and then you could hear the husband in the background, obviously from several feet away, say, "Please, (her name), I'll do anything you want -- I'll even stay with you," and right after he said that, which was so low the 911 operator couldn't have heard it, the wife cheerfully said, "Everything's alright.  I don't need you to send anyone any more."  Once before when he had tried to leave her, the wife had tried to shoot him, firing a couple of rounds into his car.

I feel sorry for Russell, and for his sake, I hope he is recording ALL of his interaction with the women he is with, and possibly that the Cubs trade or cut him.  NOT because it would be best for the Cubs, but because NO ONE should be put in the kind of position it appears Theo is putting Russell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 27, 2019, 07:02:41 pm
AMEN BROTHER!!!

Im not the only man here I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on April 27, 2019, 08:40:48 pm
When Russell returns, should the everyday regulars be as shown below?

vs. RHP:

LF Descalso
CF Heyward
RF Bryant
3B Bote
SS Baez
2B Russell
1B Rizzo
C Contreras

vs. LHP:

LF Bryant
CF Almora
RF Heyward
3B Bote
SS Baez
2B Russell
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 27, 2019, 08:55:29 pm
"None of the Above"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 28, 2019, 08:06:06 am
GREAT start for Yu, which is SO encouraging!  IF he can command his FB and breaking stuff, as he must have done last night, he will be a HUGE difference maker for us!  Fingers are crossed!  Let's hope Q is on his game today!

Nice to see Schwarber with a couple of knocks, Heyward continue to get on base and, of course, Bote mashing like crazy!  Those guys hitting well is a HUGE lift to the offense. 

DD has been terrific so far this year!  Let's hope Z has something left.

Almost certainly, Rizzo and Bryant will revert toward the mean of their careers. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on April 28, 2019, 11:14:48 am
Rizzo is a slow starter and is probably well above his career numbers for April.  There's not much reason to worry about him.  The jury is still out on Bryant although he seems to be swinging better lately.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 28, 2019, 03:36:45 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  44m44 minutes ago
Will Venable will continue to handle 3B coaching duties, Chris Denorfia at 1b as Brian Butterfield recovers from vertigo-like issues, Maddon said. Butterfield should return to full duties at Seattle.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on April 28, 2019, 06:40:53 pm
https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/cubs-threatened-writer-addison-russell-coverage/493673
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 28, 2019, 08:53:24 pm
Kyle Ryan kind of melted down after getting two strikeouts tonight...but otherwise, he's been pretty good. Have the Cubs figured out something with him?

In his 10 2/3 IP, he has struck out 16 batters. That's 13.5 K/9. In his MLB career (138 innings since 2014), he has struck out 5.5 per 9 IP. He hasn't been much better in the minors (6.2 K/9).

If he has suddenly figured out how to miss bats, the front office's strategy of signing a bunch of fringe major leaguers this offseason might have paid off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 28, 2019, 10:04:08 pm
https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/cubs-threatened-writer-addison-russell-coverage/493673

Documentation and sources matter. Especially these days.

Jesse Rogers‏
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
Following Following @ESPNChiCubs
Replying to @philhand13
Not only is it NOT TRUE (as far as I know of course), this is one of the worst pieces of journalism you'll ever see. On a sensitive topic, no one bothered to ya know, call the Cubs, other media members, Nightengale himself. God awful

David Kaplan‏
Verified account
@thekapman
Replying to @ESPNChiCubs @philhand13
I ripped him (Russell) many times since this all started. I have never heard one thing about anything I said. Never.

Chris De Luca
‏Verified account
@ChrisDeLuca
Replying to @ESPNChiCubs @philhand13
If the Cubs tried to exert that kind of pressure on us, I promise you that story would get written and featured prominently. This story was horribly reported.

Jesse Rogers‏
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
right. would love that headline.

Jesse Rogers‏
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
No idea what that means. I'm just telling you that story is false and poorly reported.  Nothing to do with asking controversial questions. And btw I hammered Maddon on the radio for Russell. Go listen then come back and comment

Jesse Rogers‏
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
you would think on a serious subject there would be actual reporting from legit outlets. That article from a journalistic standpoint was absolute crap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 29, 2019, 01:22:17 am
The latest Russell business is the difference between, on the one hand, an actual journalist(s) and, on the other hand, untrained non-journalists.

Sheryl Ring is a litigation lawyer, not a journalist. This is what happens sometimes when non-journalists pretend to be journalists. Of course, every trained professional occasionally make mistakes, but it helps if you are rigorously trained and experienced in what you are doing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2019, 06:20:31 am
There are multiple reporters in Ring's feeds who are saying they've "heard" the same thing. Again, hearsay, but it's not just Ring making the claim.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on April 29, 2019, 08:18:53 am
Watched the MLBN highlights of Cubs - DBacks Saturday game - they had to show the "brawl" instead of real baseball highlights
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 29, 2019, 10:12:53 am
Couple of thoughts on the Russell media thing.  Cubs are used to dealing with the local, Cubs-heavy media, and those guys with the Cubs.  It's possible that Theo knows Lopez and Kaplan and those guys aren't going to go really crazy.  So it's possible that Cubs might relate to them in a different way. 

With national bloggers, I suspect lots of things might be different.  They may not know or trust or respect Theo in the same way that Kaplan etc. do.  They may have much less reason not to write stuff that's really provocative.  They have no motive to maintain a working relationship with Theo.  So it seems possible the Cubs might have more fear of those kinds of people, and also that the Cubs might interact with them in a somewhat different way. 

I think it's also possible that the avenue for contacts and information may also be different.  The specific people who interface between Cubs and the regular major local media might be different names and personalities and voices.  So it's possible that maybe somebody different is sending signals to Ring that a different contact person would NOT be sending to Jesse Rodgers?  Not sure that's likely, but I'm just trying to imagine.

I think DeLuca's point is really to the point.  Ring is getting terrific buzz with this story.  **IF** the Cubs were "threatening" reporters, I think that would be a pretty awesome reporter story.  What reporter doesn't want to be the heroic reporter exposing powerful corruption?  Might not be quite Woodward and Bernstein bringing down the president; but wouldn't exposing Theo as a dishonest, corrupt big-corporation fraud be the thing that a heroic reporter would totally want to do?  Seems that *if* it was happening, that it would be such a great story that it would come out for sure. 

I can imagine that "threaten" is a third-hand word, though.  Theo has done his multiple careful and controlled comments on Russell situation; easy to imagine the Cubs would like to not have 16 million Russell stories every day.  So if somebody keeps calling or texting or emailing the Cubs every day to ask for interviews on yet another Russell story, that a media-interface voice from the Cubs might get fed up and tell them to quit calling, or if I get three more of these this week I'm going to block your phone number and put your email address for auto-junk; which the blogger might then report as intimidation and threats.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 29, 2019, 10:20:29 am
Another possibility is that the Ring writer is a closet Cards or White Sox fan.

Actually, what Craig said.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 29, 2019, 10:34:42 am
Simplest and by far the most likely explanation is that the "story" is utter bullshit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on April 29, 2019, 11:00:06 am
Heh heh, perhaps a Jussie Smollett style fraud. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 29, 2019, 11:03:41 am
It's been quite a while since the Bleacher Bums Forum conducted a poll.  Some possible answers for one regarding Addison Russell:

1.  Release the bum
2.  Trade him for anything reasonable
3.  Bring him back to play shortstop
4.  Bring him back and move him to second base.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 29, 2019, 11:06:25 am
3.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 29, 2019, 11:14:39 am
3.
I was hoping one of the board administrators would consider setting up a poll topic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brs2 on April 29, 2019, 11:32:52 am
Simplest and by far the most likely explanation is that the "story" is utter bullshit.

It would not surprise me if someone in the Cubs PR department said (essentially) "this is a serious situation. We hope that it will be reported in a sensitive manner that does not jeopardize the progress Addison has made and respects the sensitivities of all persons involved. If reporters don't have this level of respect, we will not engage with that writer or publication / will not grant press privileges." It's not clear what angle these reporters were taking, etc. or what the Cubs could actually threaten. If this is it (and I think a reporter could hear this in a menacing / threatening way), then not much new or newsworthy here.

It would surprise me if anyone in the Cubs PR department said (essentially) "if you do not print what we want, we will cut off all access for you and your organization to the Cubs and ....." I'm not sure what else they could threaten - law suits? Giving better info / access to their competitors?.... Not sure what power one team has in dealing with national "media". But this is what is implied by the tweet, and it would be a story if true. But it would need a lot more color / substantiation.

I am sure that (as someone pointed out) the major media Cub contacts do not interact with the team in the same way as bloggers.

Okay... done procrastinating.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 29, 2019, 12:15:39 pm
There are multiple reporters in Ring's feeds who are saying they've "heard" the same thing. Again, hearsay, but it's not just Ring making the claim.

All I see there are bloggers.

Journalists are people who studied journalism academically and/or apprenticed with actual journalists, that is, have professional standards. It’s a profession. Anybody off the street can claim to “report.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 29, 2019, 01:29:04 pm
I mean it would be pretty simple for anonymous writer to come forward with the details and Chicago media would run wild with it.

Also in Ring's timeline.

Sheryl Ring  🌈 ⚾️ 💄 ⚖️ "The Counselor"
@Ring_Sheryl
 23h23 hours ago
I strongly believe that the reason the @Cubs won't dump Addison Russell is that the Ricketts family doesn't want to answer questions about why they won't dump Trump too.

She obviously has a point of view that will predispose her to negative views of the Cubs behavior.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 29, 2019, 01:33:03 pm
I mean it would be pretty simple for anonymous writer to come forward with the details and Chicago media would run wild with it.

Also in Ring's timeline.

Sheryl Ring  🌈 ⚾️ 💄 ⚖️ "The Counselor"
@Ring_Sheryl
 23h23 hours ago
I strongly believe that the reason the @Cubs won't dump Addison Russell is that the Ricketts family doesn't want to answer questions about why they won't dump Trump too.

She obviously has a point of view that will predispose her to negative views of the Cubs behavior.

That last quote is so utterly absurd that, for me, it undermines anything she would say on this subject.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on April 29, 2019, 02:30:56 pm
Agreed, Ron. 

I think our President is a shoot-from-the-hip clown, but the writer's speculation that the Ricketts' family politics correlate to Cubs / Russell is ridiculous and completely undermines any cred she might possibly deserve.

Shows how little she really does know about the Cubs.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on April 29, 2019, 05:06:41 pm
She wants sports fans to respond - and give her her 15 minutes of credibility - but the anti-Trump goobs will love it...

AR is a guy that was too young (or naive) to realize how good he had it - or maybe she manipulated him...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on April 29, 2019, 05:49:44 pm
It’s a little strange that Ms. Ring started her gofundme to fund her transition from male to female 10 days ago and has it pinned at the top of her Twitter.  And now this clickbait gets posted which will inevitably increase her followers who will see the gofundme.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2019, 07:54:11 pm
All I see there are bloggers.

Journalists are people who studied journalism academically and/or apprenticed with actual journalists, that is, have professional standards. It’s a profession. Anybody off the street can claim to “report.”

The claims are that they were told similar things by writers. You don't have to be a journalist to be told by writers that they are being pressured by the club.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on April 29, 2019, 09:12:53 pm
AR is a guy that was too young (or naive) to realize how good he had it - or maybe she manipulated him...

Wait, is the hot take here that Addison’s wife manipulated him into abusing her?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 29, 2019, 09:20:28 pm
Wait, is the hot take here that Addison’s wife manipulated him into abusing her?

Is Dusty using a pseudonym?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on April 30, 2019, 06:43:45 pm
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs to option Addison Russell to Triple-A come Friday, per Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 30, 2019, 06:44:21 pm

Jesse Rogers[size=78%]‏[/size][/i]
Verified account[/size][size=78%] [/size]
@ESPNChiCubs
Cubs to option Addison Russell to Triple-A come Friday, per Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on April 30, 2019, 06:47:56 pm
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs to option Addison Russell to Triple-A come Friday, per Theo.

In other words, he will not return to Chicago on the earliest possible date (May 3).    Tonight's Iowa game has been postponed but Russell had been scheduled to be at 2B.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on April 30, 2019, 06:49:56 pm
No reason to rush him.  He has played what, three games.  Leave him there for another 8 to 10 games at least, and see how he does.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 30, 2019, 07:19:29 pm
Morrow had injection of synthetic lubricant in balky elbow Monday. Shut down for two weeks before he’ll be allowed to resume throwing program. Pushes best-case-scenario return near All-Star break.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 30, 2019, 07:43:13 pm
I've had that stuff in my knees.  When it works it's terrific but it works less than half the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 30, 2019, 07:53:21 pm
Hmm. Was it the first shots that worked and later on it didn’t or is it completely random on when it works and when it doesn’t. Going from the side of the knee 90% of the time othropedic surgeons will get it into the joint. Using a frontal technique you inject a fat pad about 50% of the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on April 30, 2019, 08:19:03 pm
It was in the side of the knee.  I could actually watch the injection on the monitor.  This was years ago.  In the four years between my left and my right knee surgeries, there were worlds of advancements.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on April 30, 2019, 08:37:29 pm
Interesting. Where they doing it with x-ray?  I don’t have a ton experience with Synvisc due to the cost of buying it. We leave it for ortho docs so I’m kinda interested to see how Morrow responds to it being injected into the elbow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on April 30, 2019, 08:52:30 pm
Based on his personal history—for three weeks after the injection—Morrow will only be allowed to remove one pant leg and will need assistance for the other.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/06/20/brandon-morrow-cubs-injury-pants/717293002/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 30, 2019, 09:12:37 pm
Theo was asked about former  Cubs prospect Daniel Vogelbach, and if he had tried the Vogey Hoagie, which can be purchased at the ballpark here: "No, I got the Monty World Series ring," Epstein quipped. (Vogelbach was traded for Montgomery who saved Game 7).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 30, 2019, 09:17:26 pm
I’ve rarely disagreed w/Theo Epstein, but does Addison Russell really need time to get up to speed? He participated throughout ST, worked in AZ in extended ST and has had a week in AAA. Seems more likely Cubs are showcasing him for a trade than further preparing him.--Rogers
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on April 30, 2019, 09:29:13 pm
I’ve rarely disagreed w/Theo Epstein, but does Addison Russell really need time to get up to speed? He participated throughout ST, worked in AZ in extended ST and has had a week in AAA. Seems more likely Cubs are showcasing him for a trade than further preparing him.--Rogers

Well if they keep Russell in the minors and eventually trade him from there, that means we won't be getting a -1 trade return on him, and if we trade him for a major leaguer, it means a +1 or even a +2.   Rogers might want to take more time to appreciate the brilliance of Theo's thinking if he is in fact showcasing him for a trade by keeping him in Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on April 30, 2019, 09:30:25 pm
Sahadev Sharma

Verified account
 
@sahadevsharma
 2h2 hours ago
More
Theo Epstein just shared that Addison Russell has been told he’ll be optioned on Thursday. No timeline, but he’s expected to be in Iowa for a few more weeks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on April 30, 2019, 09:31:56 pm
How much input will Javier Baez have in #Cubs' plan for where to use Addison Russell?

Joe Maddon: "It's not so much the input but running it by him and seeing how (Javy) feels about it ... I think he's arrived in stature in the game (to have that voice)."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on April 30, 2019, 11:02:25 pm
More on that bogus Russell story.

Gordon Wittenmyer
@GDubCub
Theo on "report" that Cubs exerted pressure on a "reporter" over critical coverage of Addison Russell (as an occasional trafficker of "unfavorable coverage," the Sun-Times can confirm the accuracy of this statement):
"We would never try to stifle freedom of the press or... 1/3

Gordon Wittenmyer
@GDubCub
at type of free expression. I saw that story out there. I’m not calling it into question other than to say the threat of reprisal to a media member about any topic, especially one of this nature, is not acceptable. And I’d be really surprised if that happened ... 2/3

Gordon Wittenmyer]
@GDubCub
"...at the Cubs, and if it did I’d want to know who it was, because they wouldn’t work for the Cubs much longer. That’s a fire-able offense, to try to threaten a media member because of unfavorable coverage, especially on a topic of this nature]
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 07:43:05 am
The Cubs recent HR binge has really helped them win some games.  Last few wins have all been HR-based.

They have now rocketed up to 12th in mlb in HR's, and up to 6th in the NL. 

Very helpful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 07:46:45 am
Schwarber, Bryant, Almora, and Rizzo now all have batting averages above .225.  That's pretty nice, too. 

Schwarber's is up to .241, highest since rookie year. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 01, 2019, 07:58:00 am

@PWSullivan
 15m15 minutes ago
More Paul Sullivan Retweeted Jesse Rogers
Looking forward to the imminent firing squad. Cubs' brass (not Theo or Jed) has been trying to influence coverage for years, constantly complaining to editors about articles and tweets they didn't like, whether it's Tribune, Sun-Times or Daily Herald. #TrueFact
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on May 01, 2019, 08:25:34 am
Can't fix stoopid...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 01, 2019, 08:29:14 am
Almost all corporations of any kind have public relations departments.  Their job is to influence public opinion and put their corporation and products in a positive light.  That doesn't include threats but quid pro quo is often in play.  I think the Cubs have a PR department.  It would be very disappointing to me if that department wasn't in touch with the overall goal of rehabilitating Russell's image.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 01, 2019, 02:48:31 pm
Morrow to 60-day injured list when Russell reinstated to 40-man, says Sharma.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 01, 2019, 11:06:52 pm
The Cubs have the best run differential in the NL and the second best in MLB at the moment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 01, 2019, 11:14:15 pm
Hard to believe they’re a .500 team, isn’t it?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 01, 2019, 11:47:19 pm
Heh...writer clearly doesn't remember Milton Bradley!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26651835/why-jon-lester-chicago-best-free-agent-signing-ever
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 02, 2019, 09:31:44 am
Hard to believe they’re a .500 team, isn’t it?

Come on, BP had them with a losing record. A .500 team is optimistic. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 02:42:14 pm
Cubs top PR guy, Julian Green, interviewed on The Score about erroneous “threating” story. Apparently, Sheryl Ring’s twitter allegation was not subject to any editorial oversight by Fangraphs, or anybody else. Green talks about normal and typical give-and-take between PR operation and media—kind of thing Curt noted—and which happens in government, corporate, sports, pretty much everywhere where there is a public interest.

A non-journalist, like Ring, might not understand that and/or might throw around a buzzword like “threatening” without appreciating what’s typical in the industry, or just be sloppy in a choice of word that editorial oversight would scrutinize. She had none and whipped off a personal tweet unencumbered by journalistic standards.

https://670thescore.radio.com/cubs-julian-green-upset-allegation-threatening-writer-unfounded
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 03:24:31 pm
Sheryl Ring is an attorney. She knows full well the meaning of the words she's using, especially in the context of an inflammatory public remark. And I don't know where the "non-journalist" line is coming from, but given that she's also employed by fangraphs, not sure that's a fair take.

I have no idea about the veracity of her tweet, but given your suggestion that she hasn't done her homework (or that she's not qualified to in the first place), you may want to do your own.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 02, 2019, 03:27:22 pm
49% of all attorneys graduated in the bottom half of their class.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 02, 2019, 03:39:25 pm
Bill Baer from NBCSports.com posted the story and Mike Gianella from BP also tweeted about it. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 02, 2019, 03:40:34 pm
40% of all vacation days are taken on Mondays and Fridays.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 03:50:54 pm
Sheryl Ring is an attorney. She knows full well the meaning of the words she's using, especially in the context of an inflammatory public remark. And I don't know where the "non-journalist" line is coming from, but given that she's also employed by fangraphs, not sure that's a fair take.

I have no idea about the veracity of her tweet, but given your suggestion that she hasn't done her homework (or that she's not qualified to in the first place), you may want to do your own.

Working for Fangraphs does not make one a journalist or give one an understanding of journalist standards. Ring is a litigation lawyer. Would not surprise me if she is an independent contractor/stringer and not an employee of Fangraphs. Being a lawyer does not train you in the professional standards and workings of journalist. As a lawyer who has many journalist friends and acquaintances, I can tell you that first-hand.

In any case, she put out a personal tweet not reviewed by Fangraphs. Her tweet is garbage and, if you’re going to post about this subject, let me suggest that you take a closer look at the response to her “story” by folks who have first-hand interactions with the Cubs—as well as take a few minutes to listen carefully to Julian Green’s comments on the score.

“Threatened” is a buzzword that a trained journalist and his/her editors are very careful about using. If Ring had an editor, perhaps this whole controversy could have been avoided. Here in Washington D.C., for example, as you might imagine there is a ton of informal back-and-forth between journalists and high-ranking government folks about stories. That is routine. The latter often complain and seek to influence. There is a world’s difference between that and “threatening” with reprisals. A non-journalist not subject to editorial oversight easily could be clueless about the difference and botch a story, which is almost certainly what happened here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 04:10:20 pm
Bill Baer from NBCSports.com posted the story and Mike Gianella from BP also tweeted about it. 

Bill Baer referenced Ring’s tweet with numerous “alleges” and zero independent reporting. It doesn’t add anything to the veracity of Ring’s tweet. Ditto for the hearsay passed on by the BP guy.

What Baer did, however, is circulate the original tweet on a legit online media site—-another example of the occasional blurring of lines between traditional journalist standards and non-journalist bloggers/tweeters. In any case, it does not add any credibility to the original “story.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 05:04:14 pm
if you’re going to post about this subject, let me suggest that you take a closer look at the response to her “story” by folks who have first-hand interactions with the Cubs—as well as take a few minutes to listen carefully to Julian Green’s comments on the score.

I haven't said a word about the tweet and I don't intend to. And I've read through all the response you condescendingly suggest I "take a closer look at."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 05:41:20 pm
I haven't said a word about the tweet and I don't intend to. And I've read through all the response you condescendingly suggest I "take a closer look at."

Well, you first posted that ...”given your suggestion that she hasn't done her homework (or that she's not qualified to in the first place), you may want to do your own.”

Now, after that, I’M being condescending for suggesting that you “take a closer look.” ???

Neither is condescending but, if you think it is, maybe look in the mirror?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 06:56:44 pm
Well, you first posted that ...”given your suggestion that she hasn't done her homework (or that she's not qualified to in the first place), you may want to do your own.”

Now, after that, I’M being condescending for suggesting that you “take a closer look.” ???

Neither is condescending but, if you think it is, maybe look in the mirror?

Ring's report has been dismissed here on account of her not being credible or of not understanding journalism. You've called it "garbage." You have no personal knowledge of her sourcing, meanwhile other writers have confirmed her story. That doesn't make the story true. Again, I'm not commenting on the story itself.   

It doesn't take a journalism major to understand that "threatening" is a loaded word in this context. Further, you're going to have to tell a bunch of decorated and respected lawyers-turned-journalists that they're inappropriately credentialed for their jobs. If Sheryl is in fact a contract worker for Fangraphs (I agree it's likely), being a contract worker doesn't make her less qualified. And blogging and reporting merged so long ago that drawing a distinction between the two is virtually meaningless these days. There are terrible reporters and amazing bloggers, and the medium of content distribution says little about the significance of the content. Just ask Fox News and The National Enquirer. Finally, there are tons of bloggers with BBWAA credentials, so the sport itself disagrees with your distinction.

There is so much condescension in all of the above. My pointing it out is not.

And finally, if the issue at hand really is about whether traditional PR work has been "unfairly" labeled "threatening," let's note that the Cubs and Russell have not denied the abuse allegations. Russell publicly apologized. The MLB found him in violation of policy after investigating. The Cubs are requiring Russell's treatment by professionals. Whatever happened between Russell and his wife, it was abusive. If the Cubs are playing the public relations game with this situation by resisting unfavorable stories, that's hugely problematic and should be called out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 02, 2019, 07:13:18 pm
The slugging Cubs have now vaulted into a tie for 8th in mlb in HR's.  And in the NL, they are tied for 3rd.  Very, very helpful.

I also think it's helpful to get some easy wins. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 02, 2019, 07:18:37 pm
Sheryl Ring is an attorney. She knows full well the meaning of the words she's using, especially in the context of an inflammatory public remark. And I don't know where the "non-journalist" line is coming from, but given that she's also employed by fangraphs, not sure that's a fair take.

I have no idea about the veracity of her tweet, but given your suggestion that she hasn't done her homework (or that she's not qualified to in the first place), you may want to do your own.

Until I retired from the profession, I was an attorney. And I assure you that being an attorney is no where near a guarantee of competence even in the law, much less journalistic practice (or in doing homework).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 02, 2019, 07:23:07 pm
People are going to believe what they're inclined to believe.

Attempting to persuade others to the point of hammering is frustrating for everyone.  Reb's point about journalistic training is a good one, but wanting everyone to see it in the same black and white that he seems to (journalist = reputable; non-journalist = crap) is a bit over the top.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 02, 2019, 07:33:24 pm
The slugging Cubs have now vaulted into a tie for 8th in mlb in HR's.  And in the NL, they are tied for 3rd.  Very, very helpful.

I also think it's helpful to get some easy wins. 

Craig, what are your thoughts regarding home runs?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 02, 2019, 07:51:10 pm
If you need a journalist, Paul Sullivan tweeted out that “Cubs’ brass (not Theo or Jed) has been trying to influence coverage for years.” Granted, he’s one of the less reliable beat guys.

Here’s an article that came out sometime today about a Cubs VP I’ve never heard of (Julian Green) who apparently called Fangraphs to try to make Sheryl Ring delete the tweet. Then he got overly defensive and acted like he specifically was accused. The Sullivan tweet is also embedded in the article.

https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/cubs-vp-russell-egregious-influence.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 02, 2019, 08:34:06 pm
If this subject is going to continue to be discussed, let's at least agree to make a distinction between "trying to influence" and "threatening."  Curt already pointed out this distinction. All PR people attempt to influence. That is fundamentally different from threatening.  So let's not act like these two terms are equivalent, please.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 09:14:50 pm
If this subject is going to continue to be discussed, let's at least agree to make a distinction between "trying to influence" and "threatening."  Curt already pointed out this distinction. All PR people attempt to influence. That is fundamentally different from threatening.  So let's not act like these two terms are equivalent, please.

A lot of folks don’t understand this distinction. It is crucial to understanding what happened here.

Folks, seeking to influence is a world apart from threatening with reprisal.

On another front, Awful Announcing says it’s inappropriate for Julian Green to seek to have the Ring tweet deleted. But, this is a common request in any industry/government when a story runs that is factually wrong. Correct the story. Retract, whatever. This is routine. Awful Announcing doesn’t seem to get it

Because the framework for this controversy is the Russell situation, this makes it harder for some folks to see straight.  But, the same rules should apply when setting forth facts.  Just get it right.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 10:08:21 pm
So we know what the facts are, and that Ring doesn’t have them. Got it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 02, 2019, 10:20:39 pm
Julian Green is the VP of communications and community relations. His previous work included director of media relations for MillerCoors and from 2004-2007 Senator Obama’s press secretary.

Influencing seems to me to be a PR guys job. Threatening seems to be a different ball game. I’m sure Sullivan gets a fair number of complaints for just being an idiot.

Have the Cubs tried to influence the coverage of Russell I’m sure they have. Judging from the coverage they’ve received it doesn’t seem to have been all that positive outside of 1 Nightengale piece.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 10:29:43 pm
Everyone here understands the difference between legit PR/influence and threats.

And for those suggesting that Ring doesn’t know what she’s saying when using the word “threaten,” she makes the subtext plain in the original tweet, saying literally, “threatened with reprisal.”

I don’t know if Ring’s story is true or not. But nobody here does either.

And I’ll say again, I don’t think the Cubs have any business discouraging negative coverage on this story in the first place, whether by legit PR influence or otherwise. If they want to give Russell the chance to prove he’s a changed person, that’s their prerogative. But don’t put a spin on it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 02, 2019, 10:37:23 pm
Wow.  I didn't know discouraging negative coverage was putting a spin on something. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 10:45:47 pm
"I would define spin as the shaping of events to make you look better than anybody else.“ Bradlee, exec editor WaPo

“Knowingly providing a biased interpretation of an event or campaigning to persuade public opinion in favor or against some organization or public figure.”

“Spin, in politics, is the attempt to control or influence communication in order to deliver one’s preferred message.”

“Spin, in the context of public relations (PR), marketing and journalism, is the selective assembly of fact and the shaping of nuance to support a particular view of a story.”

“To spin something is to communicate it in a way that changes the way people are likely to perceive it.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 10:50:49 pm
And by the way, do we also want to suggest that the Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus writers who corroborated Ring’s story are also obtuse non-journalists or just flat out wrong?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 10:52:34 pm
In a legit journalist story, there would be underling factual detail regarding the words used that led to the conclusion of a threat of reprisal. People don’t generally say “I threaten You With Reprisal.” That’s generally a conclusory term drawn from other words.

What Ring tweeted was a conclusion with no underlying factual detail. That is a problem, but the kind of thing we see frequently on Twitter, given its limitations. It is very likely Ring did not make a distinction between seeking to influence and a threat of reprisal. Maybe she doesn’t care about the distinction given the sordid Russell story.

Ticohans acknowledges there’s a difference but thinks it’s inappropriate to do either. That’s fine to say as a poster on a Cubs board but it’s not fine for someone like Ring who writes for Fangraphs and whose stuff may be picked up on legit media sites. It’s sloppy and unprofessional.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 02, 2019, 10:54:59 pm
In all those definition of spin, the spinner is trying to make a bad thing look more acceptable.  I agree.

I don't think asking correspondents to give a penitent man a  chance meets that exact criteria.  Johnson and Johnson trying to convince people that their cancer causing talcum powder isn't as bad as all that or Trump's publicity crew using outright lies to convince others is not the same as asking people to give a guy a break who's trying to redeem himself.

I remember an old story about this **** in this small village who got caught in the sack with a client and they dragged her into the center of the village and were going to nail her with rocks.  They were arguing who got to pitch the first rock at the ****, when someone suggested that the guy who had never done anything he was ashamed of or had done wrong throw the first pitch.  Can't remember how that came out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 02, 2019, 11:05:25 pm
Who gives a ****?

Oh I know.

The Russell haters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 11:12:02 pm
And by the way, do we also want to suggest that the Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus writers who corroborated Ring’s story are also obtuse non-journalists or just flat out wrong?

Hardball Times and BP are publications of statistical analysis and commentary. If folks who work there are trained journalists, I would be surprised. What is journalism? See link below.

The reports you cite from those sources are good examples of how they fall short of journalist standards. Hearsay; no first-hand corroboration; no factual context. This kind of stuff would be laughed off at newsrooms in the The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, or your local paper of record—-and if it’s good enough for the gold standards of reporting, it should apply too for a serious sports story that is the Russell story.

https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/journalism-essentials/what-is-journalism/makes-journalism-different-forms-communication/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 02, 2019, 11:14:18 pm
With Cards and Brewers both losing, Cubs are within 2.5 and up 1.5.  They are also now tied for the last wildcard spot. 

Will be an interesting and big series coming up.  Flaherty, Wacha, and Wainright.  I'm kinda surprised that Wainright is still starting and doing so effectively.  But I don't view either Wacha or Wainright as unbeatable.  Flaherty looked awfully good last year, and Hendricks hasn't looked good this year.  So tomorrow looks like an unfavorable matchup.  But man, if somehow they could win behind Hendricks tomorrow, that would be a really great start to the series.  Win the first one, good chance to win the series. 

Just to get back on the discussion track, Russell had three AB and K'd 3 times in tonight's game. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 02, 2019, 11:20:25 pm
Brewers have played 33 games. Cubs 28 games. Guess that means more off-days coming up for the Brewers. Cubs are 4 up in loss column re. Brewers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 02, 2019, 11:34:24 pm
The Cubs have been 16-12 thru 28 games the last 3 seasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 02, 2019, 11:36:53 pm
It isn't any more an enormous presumption than it is to believe Ring's account.

What makes me uncomfortable is that I'm cornered into championing Russell when I think what he did was disgusting; kind of like defending Trump even if you despise him.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 02, 2019, 11:42:34 pm
Hey Curt, I deleted my post so as to not belabor the convo. Agreed re: believing Cubs vs believing Ring. I’m not suggesting we have to believe Ring. I’m suggesting it’s not nearly as simple as dismissing her because we don’t like the way she reported it. And I’m saying the Cubs have no business exerting any kind of influence - soft or hard - over the reporting of Russell’s comeback.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 02, 2019, 11:44:18 pm
Peace!  Can't we all just get along?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 03, 2019, 09:21:33 am
Has the coverage of Russell really been all that positive?  I only read the Athletic and Cubs blogs and it hasn’t seemed to be positive at all to me.

Flaherty seems to be the only good cardinals starting pitcher, but he’s been HR prone.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 03, 2019, 09:25:07 am
Has the coverage of Russell really been all that positive?  I only read the Athletic and Cubs blogs and it hasn’t seemed to be positive at all to me.


I think all of the writers at The Athletic have been quite critical of the Cubs' handling of Russell's status. None of them has indicated that the Cubs have placed any pressure whatever on them for doing so.  I don't remember how other local reporters have covered the subject. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 03, 2019, 09:46:51 am
Just because the bulk of reporting about Russell has been negative, that isn’t evidence that the cubs haven’t been exerting influence improper or otherwise - trying to spin it the other way.  It could just as easily mean they have been and the facts are so revolting that it hasn’t worked.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2019, 12:14:36 pm
Convenient that Tony Barnette goes to 60 day IL, making room for Oscar de la Cruz activated to the 40-man.

Now, Barnette can throw at extended spring training and do another rehab assignment pending any openings on the major league club.

Say what you will about Cubs bullpen, but there are a lot of bullpen candidates. Need a spot for Montgomery. Xavier Cedeno knocking on door. Edwards with good line at Iowa. Maybe, eventually, Morrow. At some point, perhaps Barnette.

Yeah, bullpen needs a high-end guy like a healthy Morrow at back end—-think that Cubs are hoping Maples can blossom and do that soon. Aside from his great stuff, I like Maples mound demeanor even when he can’t throw strikes——he seems non-plussed even when struggling.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 03, 2019, 12:19:43 pm
He's a righthanded Mitch Williams.   I almost had a stroke that season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 03, 2019, 02:41:18 pm
Quote
he seems non-plussed even when struggling

check your definition
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 03, 2019, 03:39:48 pm
Heh, everyone still remember Mitch Williams' first game as a Cub?

I thought Harry was going to have a stroke that day...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2019, 03:43:06 pm
check your definition

Nonplussed.

....2. INFORMAL•NORTH AMERICAN
(of a person) not disconcerted; unperturbed

Used it in the vernacular. Get with it!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2019, 04:54:15 pm
Cubs lead NL in runs scored per game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 03, 2019, 04:58:08 pm
Heh, everyone still remember Mitch Williams' first game as a Cub?

I thought Harry was going to have a stroke that day...
https://youtu.be/sIUU1_F57R4
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 03, 2019, 05:00:29 pm
1989 was a memorable year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2019, 05:00:48 pm
Cubs SP moving closer to NL leaders:

1. Bucs  3.19

2. Reds  3.21

3. Dodgers 3.41

4. Padres 3.42

5. Cubs 3.45

6. Giants 4.03

Cubs bullpen ERA is 4.22. NL average bullpen ERA is 4.24.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 03, 2019, 05:54:39 pm
Thanks, reb, that's pretty impressive.  Particularly the separation between the Cubs and 6th and following. 

Also pretty unexpected that Reds would be 2nd. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on May 03, 2019, 06:39:38 pm
The Reds have the fewest runs allowed in the league by a good margin (100 to the Pirates' 114, then the Cubs with 122) and still have a positive run differential despite being in last place.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 03, 2019, 06:51:33 pm
Craig, what are your thoughts regarding home runs?

You should specify Cubs home runs or opponents home runs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 03, 2019, 06:52:24 pm
Brewers have worst SP ERA in NL by wide margin and worst overall ERA.

Reds have best overall ERA.

It’s early.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on May 04, 2019, 08:39:33 am
Shows the value of Derek Johnson
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 05, 2019, 09:01:48 am
Cubs will have to go 61-73 to match their PECOTA projections. Sadly Rob Arthur deleted all of his tweets calling out Epstein for calling PECOTA error prone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 05, 2019, 09:15:29 am
There is little doubt the Cubs have been playing really well lately. I think even the more skeptical among us would have trouble arguing with that (or maybe not).

Jon Greenburg, who can be pretty snarky at times, had a recent column after the Hendricks game in which he said the following:

"Can you think of a stretch like this one from last year? One where you felt like these Cubs looked like the 2016 version of themselves? The Cubs look better at this point in the season than they have in the previous two seasons and that should (should, I stress) be a positive sign of what’s to come this season."

https://theathletic.com/961464/2019/05/03/theres-another-dimension-out-there-brother-yeah-joe-maddon-is-feeling-good-about-the-cubs/

Yesterday, Patrick Mooney pointed out that the Cubs' current 18-12 record is their best since 2016, after beginning the season 2-7.

https://theathletic.com/962241/2019/05/04/yu-darvish-couldnt-match-kyle-hendricks-but-javy-baez-and-taylor-davis-lead-cubs-to-another-win/

Let's enjoy this run as long as possible and hope for the best the rest of the way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 05, 2019, 09:49:40 am
"Let's enjoy this run..."  Indeed! 

Extending a winning streak with a tight, comeback win over the Cards is about as good as it gets!

The offense and defense have been very good, the SP has been excellent overall and the relief pitching has also been a plus since early season.  That kind of balance is what tends to prevail over the course of a season.

Of course, there's a VERY long way to go this season, so we can't get too high or low, but great to see Cubs come back SO strong from such a dismal start! 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 05, 2019, 11:25:30 am
Our relief may have been the worst in baseball early, but they've been the best since April 7.

The below sampling is part of the list of reliever groups since April 7 from the always-upbeat Bleacher Nation:

Team         Ranking       IP        ERA
Cubs          1                73.2    1.83
Arizona       2                82.1    2.73
Toronto      3                 91.2    3.08
Cardinals    6                 84.2    3.30
Colorado    10                93.2    3.46

Of course, we've played fewer games and our starters have been better than those of other teams since April 7; however, our relievers have been excellent overall since then.  Things tend to go UP and DOWN in MLB!  Hang on!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 05, 2019, 12:35:41 pm
Like 2016, the Cubs are now having their share of serendipity.    An example would be Taylor Davis's popfly that was ruled foul instead of fair followed by a grand slam.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 05, 2019, 01:16:06 pm
He hit the first pitch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on May 05, 2019, 01:22:24 pm
Lol
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 05, 2019, 01:40:22 pm
He hit the first pitch.
You're right.  The fair/foul call was before Javy's homer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 05, 2019, 10:37:39 pm
Cubs now have the #1 winning % in the NL.

Just ahead of the Dodgers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 06, 2019, 01:33:42 am
Jesse Rogers notes:

Since April 8, the Cubs' team ERA is 2.48. The next best in baseball in that time -- the Arizona Diamondbacks -- have a 3.40 mark. Let that sink in. Since the second week of the season, the Cubs are giving up one run fewer per game than the next best pitching staff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 06, 2019, 01:35:55 am
 
Quote
@MLBastian
More
After Darvish exited Saturday’s game, he saw Baez in batting cage and apologized for letting the team down.

Yu: “I felt so bad, because they worked hard to come back. He said, ‘Don’t worry. I’ve got your back.’”

Baez then it game-deciding homer in 8th.

Yu: “Wow. What a story.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 06, 2019, 10:14:10 am
Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
Over his last 63 plate appearances, Kris Bryant is slashing .277/.444/.596 (173 wRC+)  with a walk-rate (20.6%) nearly double his strikeout rate (11.1%) and a hard-hit rate approaching 50%! #Cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 06, 2019, 10:29:55 am
But he still sucks w/RISP.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 06, 2019, 11:05:13 am
He does only have a .869 OPS with RISP this year, bum.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 06, 2019, 11:17:18 am
Not trying to be contentious or a jerk, but I suspect a grand slam with a 9-2 lead won't really shift the perspective of somebody who questions clutch-hitting effectiveness!  :)  RISP, yes, but don't think it really gets to the issue.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 06, 2019, 03:17:20 pm
I think maybe Chris is just trolling us and actually has his house plastered with KB jerseys and posters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 06, 2019, 03:38:13 pm
Edwards is back, Maples optioned to AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 06, 2019, 03:42:48 pm
Caratini is also starting a rehab assignment at South Bend.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 06, 2019, 04:41:56 pm
I think maybe Chris is just trolling us and actually has his house plastered with KB jerseys and posters.

Speaking of Chris, is it just my faulty impession, or has he been uncharacteristically  quiet lately?  And if so, should he get some credit for this winning streak, and for Bryant's resurgence?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on May 06, 2019, 04:54:38 pm
Still posting daily minor league updates in On The Farm, like usual.

You've turned your smarminess up to 11 is the only difference I notice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 06, 2019, 06:43:20 pm
Edwards is back, Maples optioned to AAA.

That's too bad.  I think I'd have liked to give Maples a longer leash, given the potential upside there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 06, 2019, 06:57:13 pm
Gee, I wonder who Joe will use in every critical situation and every game from here on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 06, 2019, 08:47:24 pm
Interesting. 

Bruce Miles liked
Ryan
[size=78%]Verified account[/size][/i]
@RyanQDavis

Worth pointing out that Anthony Rizzo recently passed Aramis Ramirez on the Cubs all-time WAR list for hitters (via FanGraphs). In the modern era, Rizzo ranks No. 7 behind Santo, Banks, Sandburg, Sosa, Williams, and Grace.

Who would have guessed that Mark Grace would rank #6 all-time of all Cubs in WAR? Not me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 06, 2019, 08:53:07 pm
By the way, Sharma has a good article on the 2019 Cubs, including with some interesting analysis of Kris Bryant's season, as well as explanations for the good performances (so far) by Kintzler and Ryan.

https://theathletic.com/963812/2019/05/06/can-the-first-place-cubs-keep-up-their-sustained-success-after-weekend-sweep-of-cardinals/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on May 06, 2019, 08:57:13 pm
When you lead all of baseball in hits and doubles for a decade, and win several gold gloves, you probably have a high WAR number.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 06, 2019, 08:58:39 pm
I would have guessed that.  But only because I was looking at the following site just yesterday.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=chc#sortColumn=bb&sectionType=sp&playerType=ALL&statType=hitting&season=2019&season_type=ALL&game_type='R'&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&league_code='MLB'&page=1&ts=1557194135035&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

Grace is in the Cubs all time top ten in Games, At Bats, Hits, Doubles, RBIs, Walks, and probably a few other areas.  Grace was a very underrated player for the Cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 06, 2019, 09:32:54 pm
When you lead all of baseball in hits and doubles for a decade, and win several gold gloves, you probably have a high WAR number.

Apparently so!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 06, 2019, 09:45:31 pm
44 WAR isn’t that high. He averaged 3.5 WAR per year as a Cub which made him a good player but I don’t think he was ever as good as Cubs fans, myself included, thought he was.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 06, 2019, 09:50:47 pm
I would have guessed it too. Grace was a terrific player for a long time, and very underrated.

The real headline there is, who would have guessed Bruce Miles can’t spell “Sandberg?”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 06, 2019, 10:03:32 pm
Interesting. 

Bruce Miles liked
Ryan
[size=78%]Verified account[/size][/i]
@RyanQDavis

Worth pointing out that Anthony Rizzo recently passed Aramis Ramirez on the Cubs all-time WAR list for hitters (via FanGraphs). In the modern era, Rizzo ranks No. 7 behind Santo, Banks, Sandburg, Sosa, Williams, and Grace.

Who would have guessed that Mark Grace would rank #6 all-time of all Cubs in WAR? Not me.

“Modern era” is NOT since 1950, as in Gabby Hartnett, Stan Hack, etc.

All-time position player fWAR as a Cub (not overall career) since 1900:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=1900&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 06, 2019, 11:49:01 pm
Mark Grace was my first favorite Cub.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 07, 2019, 07:52:48 am
I would have guessed it too. Grace was a terrific player for a long time, and very underrated.

The real headline there is, who would have guessed Bruce Miles can’t spell “Sandberg?”

That wasn't a Miles tweet.  RyanQDavis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on May 07, 2019, 02:28:33 pm
Didn't Grace hit the most doubles of any major leaguer during the 1990s?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brs2 on May 07, 2019, 06:40:12 pm
Didn't Grace hit the most doubles of any major leaguer during the 1990s?

I think most hits as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 07, 2019, 07:36:15 pm
I think most hits as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=1999&month=0&season1=1990&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 07, 2019, 10:50:50 pm
Bryant slash line now:   250-381-508
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 07, 2019, 11:35:42 pm
The Cubs are now first in the Central, second best record in the NL, and 4th best record in the majors.

I'll have to admit I didn't see things turning around that quickly after that awful start to the season and wasn't even that optimistic things would turn around for us at all.  Gotta give a lot of credit to the heart of the guys in the clubhouse for that kind of turnaround.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 07, 2019, 11:40:43 pm
They are also a half-game up on 3rd place. 

This could be a really competitive division all year long, again. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 08, 2019, 01:43:22 am
The Brewers are a really good team with pretty bad starting pitching.  If anybody needed Keuchel, you'd think it would be them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 08, 2019, 07:45:32 am
Cubs probing apparent racist gesture by fan

The Chicago Cubs said they are investigating a fan using what appeared to be a racist hand gesture that was caught by cameras during Tuesday night's broadcast of a home game against the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field.

Cubs president of business operations Crane Kenney said in a statement early Wednesday morning that the fan made the gesture while Doug Glanville was working for NBC Sports Chicago.

Glanville, who is black, played nine seasons in the majors, including three with the Cubs. He also is an analyst for ESPN.

"Such ignorant and repulsive behavior is not tolerated at Wrigley Field," Kenney said in the statement. "We are reviewing the incident thoroughly because no one should be subjected to this type of offensive behavior."

The statement went on to say that "any individual behaving in this manner will not only be removed from the ballpark, but will be permanently banned from Wrigley Field."


https://abc7chicago.com/sports/cubs-probing-apparent-racist-gesture-by-fan/5290232/?fbclid=IwAR3nXsjo_trod51OgoS-uOveMXwRzgmmDoLMDpK-Ag0Vh6vq2bGkYwPYHtI
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 08, 2019, 07:46:47 am
I can't find the video anywhere but apparently the OK hand sign is now a racist thing.  When did it change from a game of you looked to a racist thing? 

That is a serious question because I had no clue until today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on May 08, 2019, 07:49:03 am
Not tolerating ignorant or repulsive behavior?

Should be a lot of empty seats soon
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 08:00:56 am
Here's a little more context. It's probably too soon to say definitively that this was intended to be a racist sign, but it's not out of the question.

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/05/08/cubs-investigating-a-fan-allegedly-flashing-a-white-power-sign-behind-nbc-sports-reporter/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 08, 2019, 08:06:46 am
Yeah here's an article I just read about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/08/chicago-cubs-investigating-fan-who-appeared-flash-white-power-sign-air/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e7a3105c890f

Even if it was meant to be "ironic", it's just a stupid a-hole type thing to be doing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 08, 2019, 08:07:12 am
I guess it's a good thing I don't play the circle game anymore.

Next thing you know I won't be able to punch my kids when we see a Volkswagen Bug while driving.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 08:48:07 am
I can't find the video anywhere but apparently the OK hand sign is now a racist thing.  When did it change from a game of you looked to a racist thing? 

That is a serious question because I had no clue until today.

Bleacher Nation has a tweet that shows a video of the incident.  I've never seen an upside-down OK sign.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1125932193522515969
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 09:02:19 am
Me either, Bennett.  I guess I'm just cool enough or with it.  Never ever heard of this.  I don't think I use the okay sign much, but if I do, it will be less.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 08, 2019, 09:12:12 am
It has to be below the waist or it doesn’t count.

Never heard of the circle being racist in any way...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 08, 2019, 09:14:25 am
More on the circle game...

https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/circle-game/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 09:23:12 am
The guy's face is clearly visible in the video.  That seat is $92.00 for the Marlins ($152.00 for the Brewers) so it most likely belongs to a season ticket holder.  The Cubs should have no trouble identifying him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 08, 2019, 09:26:41 am
Quote
It has to be below the waist or it doesn’t count.

Dave - He did start it below the waist...  I just want to know if this was the game who the hell he thought he was going to hit?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 08, 2019, 09:27:55 am
Twitter will jump all over somebody flashing the OK sign in a picture as being a racist.  I think their are times it isn't and it is.  After watching the video I'm more inclined to believe it is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 09:31:47 am
Once the Cubs have his name they'll go to any social media account he has and then have a good idea what his thoughts are on a number of subjects.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 08, 2019, 09:32:53 am
I just re watched the video.  That idiot was flashing something else with both hands before the circle.  You only see one hand that looked like the peace sign.  Who the hell knows these days with all the gang signs and crap they "throw up."

With the dummies age (seemed younger) I think this might have been a racist thing then the circle gotcha game.  I guess us old farts are the only ones who associate it with the circle game anymore.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 09:38:59 am
Some of the reasoning in that article is very paranoid.   We want the left to think we're doing something so the right can act innocent and accuse the left of being the real racists, blah, blah, blah.   Sounds like much ado about nothing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 08, 2019, 10:11:52 am
I think that guy knew what he was doing.  Who goes around making that gesture without any idea of what they're doing?  I can't remember the last time I even did a normal OK hand gesture.

The Christchurch shooter made that gesture in his court hearing.  It's almost certainly a "thing" now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 08, 2019, 10:14:07 am
The guy's face is clearly visible in the video.  That seat is $92.00 for the Marlins ($152.00 for the Brewers) so it most likely belongs to a season ticket holder.  The Cubs should have no trouble identifying him.

All season tickets are now electronic, so sold or gifted tickets all have an "MLB Ballpark" app account associated with them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 08, 2019, 10:16:00 am
While what that guy did is almost certainly reprehensible, the somewhat comical irony is that you won't find too many black guys "whiter" than Doug Glanville.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 08, 2019, 12:08:45 pm
This is how you beat the defensive shifts:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/05/08/feel-like-the-cubs-are-going-oppo-more-this-year-well-they-are-to-an-extreme/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 08, 2019, 12:20:59 pm
That's really interesting, Play, thanks for the link. 

I wonder how that breaks down between in-the-air and on-the-ground?  I tend to notice the infielder-shifts much more than I notice the outfield shifts.  I suspect some of the guys tend to be relatively opposite-field in the air, while remaining pull-oriented on-the-ground? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 08, 2019, 12:38:54 pm
The oppo hits might very well be skewed towards balls in the air, but oppo grounders/liners are almost certainly increased as well.  It would be interesting to see the breakdown.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 12:56:56 pm
David Kaplan @thekapman
According to a source, Addison Russell is in Chicago today. Not sure what this means for his return to the club but he is not with the Iowa Cubs and he is in Chicago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on May 08, 2019, 01:07:26 pm
Maybe his ex needed some re-calibration?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 01:30:10 pm
David Kaplan @thekapman
Source: Addison Russell will be activated tonight look for the Cubs to make a couple of roster moves. Don’t forget that Ben Zobrist was scratched before last nights first pitch from the lineup.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 08, 2019, 01:30:55 pm
Am I the only guy that has never heard of a "white power hand sign"?  Some people just have too much time on their hands.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 01:33:33 pm
David Kaplan @thekapman
Look for two roster moves from the Cubs today. I’m hearing Zobrist and Descalso to the IL. Addison Russell will be one of the players activated.


Happ?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 01:38:59 pm
Montgomery, I think.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 01:39:20 pm
Am I the only guy that has never heard of a "white power hand sign"?  Some people just have too much time on their hands.
Read up, you aren't alone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 08, 2019, 01:45:49 pm
Am I the only guy that has never heard of a "white power hand sign"?  Some people just have too much time on their hands.

I’m not surprised. You’re old school and prefer the KKK hood. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 08, 2019, 02:03:14 pm
David Kaplan @thekapman
Source: Addison Russell will be activated tonight look for the Cubs to make a couple of roster moves. Don’t forget that Ben Zobrist was scratched before last nights first pitch from the lineup.


Hopefully he gets booed so relentlessly that he decides to retire on the spot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 02:26:32 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6EPiNBW4AER0Ec.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 03:14:07 pm
Strop to the IL (hamstring) - Montgomery back

Zobrist on leave of absence (restricted list) - Russell back
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 03:17:11 pm
Good to see Addison back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on May 08, 2019, 03:36:53 pm
What's the deal with Zobrist?  Wasn't he absent for part of spring training too?  Contemplating retirement?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 03:44:26 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  4m4 minutes ago
Strop said he initially hurt leg during 2nd inning of work at Arizona on April 28. Rested during Seattle series but felt recurring discomfort Saturday vs. STL

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  7m7 minutes ago
Grade TWO strain for Strop
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 08, 2019, 04:25:34 pm
Just because you haven't heard of something doesn't mean it's not real.  That guy knew exactly what he was doing, just like Miller did when he used it during the Kavenaugh hearing.

In more important news, this bullpen is seriously terrifying now.  And Zobrist gone "indefinitely" for personal reasons?  After missing time in ST too, there's clearly something significant going on there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 04:51:35 pm
According to Gordon Wittenmyer, Pedro Strop hopes to be back within four weeks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 05:06:19 pm
Give Theo Kimbrel's number!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 05:08:49 pm
With Ben Zobrist out of action the Cubs now have only Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Kris Bryant to play the outfield.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 08, 2019, 05:14:23 pm
Zagunis is gone?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 05:20:30 pm
The depth chart used to not show Zagunis as an outfield possibility.  Now it does.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 08, 2019, 05:31:13 pm
Give Theo Kimbrel's number!

That’s the problem, Kimbrel’s number has a couple too many zeroes at the end.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 08, 2019, 05:58:30 pm
I’m not surprised. You’re old school and prefer the KKK hood. 

You say that with as much evidence, logic and common sense as most anything else you say.  If you have no facts, just make them up.  Oddo does the same thing, but at least he doesn't pretend to be either intelligent or educated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 08, 2019, 05:59:24 pm
Hopefully he gets booed so relentlessly that he decides to retire on the spot.

Liberal compassion in action.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 06:31:57 pm
Russell on anticipated fan reax tonight:
   “Good or bad, in my mind it’s going to be a positive reaction, just because of how hard I worked to get there. I realize there’s a long road ahead of me but I’m happy I’m here in Chicago and ready to help this team win.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 06:33:08 pm
Russell was asked how does anyone know if he's faking it: “I don’t think I’m a good actor. I don’t think you can fake what’s true in your heart. And what’s true in my heart is to be a better person.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 08, 2019, 06:39:19 pm
It's clear from everything Russell says off the cuff that he considers himself the victim in all this.  I'm just hoping he's smart enough to take the lesson that if he acts the same way in the future, it's going to cost him big-time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 06:44:00 pm
IMO he was the victim.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 08, 2019, 07:03:16 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  4m4 minutes ago
The Cubs have sent a letter to the fan that made the racist gesture last night as they were unable to reach him by phone. He will not be allowed back on the grounds and will be subject to prosecution for trespassing if he attempts to return. They won't give out his name publicly
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 07:11:19 pm
Im the dumbass that will play around and give stupid wrestling hand signals on a daily basis but Ive never did that hand signal even though I have seen it and the people Ive seen do it I dont believe thought it was meant as racist.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 07:13:00 pm
IMO he was the victim.

Of all the dumb posts you’ve made on this topic, this is easily the dumbest.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 08, 2019, 07:17:06 pm
Im the dumbass that will play around and give stupid wrestling hand signals on a daily basis but Ive never did that hand signal even though I have seen it and the people Ive seen do it I dont believe thought it was meant as racist.

Now that you know, a pic of you flashing that will be on your Christmas card.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 07:20:53 pm
You'll eventually learn that I enjoy getting a rise out of people.

My daughters mother has done everything she could think to do to make me go OJ Simpson on her ass and at 37 years old I have yet to hit a woman in my life.

I dont condone hitting women and even gave a young man the same advice in the last few weeks.

My deal with all of this is Melissa Reidy sure as hell doesnt come across as a humble,sweet,little,innocent,victim if you follow her much at all like my wife who is also Philipino does.

Should he have ever touched her?

No.

But what if she did kick his dog,call his momma a ****,and give his best friend a BJ?

Would you feel differently about it then?

Dont judge someone when you,me,and everyone else here only knows half the story.

You choose to believe your half and Ill choose to believe mine.

Neither one of us will be wrong because we'll never know the truth.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 08, 2019, 07:24:56 pm
Does this board do bans?  I forget.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 07:26:13 pm
Bans?

Lol

You better not support men around these parts huh?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 08, 2019, 08:36:32 pm
You'll eventually learn that I enjoy getting a rise out of people.

I know that about you. I also can tell that you truly believe the truly stupid thing you said about Russell being the victim.

Quote
You choose to believe your half and Ill choose to believe mine.

Neither one of us will be wrong because we'll never know the truth.

Well, you're choosing to believe something that is clearly false. Russell's ex-wife's accusations were very specific and credible. MLB investigated the accusations...it's clear their investigation revealed that the accusations were true because they suspended him for 40 games. Then Russell himself admitted he was in the wrong the first time he met with the media after the suspension. It's not ambiguous--Russell is a domestic abuser.

If you still think he's the victim, it's because you are choosing to ignore all the evidence that he did it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 08:41:28 pm
But if Addison had come forth and said "it's all B.S. and lies" then he would have also been grilled for not accepting responsibility for his actions.

What more could he realistically do but accept responsibility for it and try to do what was necessary to save his job?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 08, 2019, 08:50:46 pm
If a woman accuses you of hitting her you might as well just be found guilty because you're not gonna outrun that no matter what you say or do.

Realistically tell me Br what Addison could have said or done to have gotten you to forgive him by this point?

Hasnt he done EVERYTHING asked of him?

And then when he tries to give the right answer it's "he THINKS he's the victim".

You cant win this battle and I bet Theo and Co. have told him the same.

Look at Theo's actions.

What if he had said whether true or not "she's a gold digger with a motive"?

He'd be unemployed.

He had to say what he has said.

The fact that the Cubs have stood by Addison tells me all I need to know.

They know better too.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 08, 2019, 08:57:26 pm
There is a good reason to have an Ignore feature for Bleacher Bums. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on May 08, 2019, 09:11:18 pm
Honest question, has any sports league not disciplined a player for domestic violence allegations since the Ray Rice fiasco?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on May 09, 2019, 12:02:09 am
There is a good reason to have an Ignore feature for Bleacher Bums.

Is there not one?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 09, 2019, 12:05:33 am
Quote
There is a good reason to have an Ignore feature for Bleacher Bums.

That's about as close as Ron can come to saying "Some of you people are ****."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 09, 2019, 12:17:10 am
Is there not one?

Yes, there is. That's my point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 09, 2019, 12:24:40 am
For those who are interested in how the Cubs have handled and are handling Addison Russell's domestic violence behavior and rehabilitation process, this is a lengthy video in which Theo goes into some depth on this subject. I have been involved professionally with domestic violence victims, and I certainly understand and respect those who are upset with the Cubs continuing their relationship with Russell. But I think it is simplistic and unfair to characterize the Cubs' efforts with Russell as  insensitive to victims of domestic violence, or to that issue. I believe the opposite is true. Reasonable people can disagree on this, but I'd urge everyone to take the time to listen to what Theo has to say, hopefully with an open mind.

Theo also addressed the apparently white nationalist, racist hand gesture, as well as Zobrist's leave and Strop's injury.

https://www.facebook.com/cbschicago/videos/2306930052958496/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 02:33:52 am
Cubs now on a pace to win 100 games.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 09, 2019, 02:40:00 am
Ben Zobrist's wife has erased her Twitter and went silent on social media.

That's not normal for her.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 09, 2019, 07:34:00 am
Hendricks ERA down to 3.16. 

I saw only parts of yesterday's game, but I seem to recall Len mentioning that he touched as fast as 89 mph last night? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 09, 2019, 07:55:15 am
HR update.  Cubs are now:
*8th in mlb, 3-way tie
*4th NL, 3-way
*6th (mlb) and 3rd (NL) on a per-game basis.  (Cubs have played 34 games, Padres/Yankees 38/36)

In the NL (per game), behind only the Brewers and Dodgers. 

Ahead of St. Louis, 54 to 47...... while having played 3 fewer games!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/sort/homeRuns/order/true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 08:46:27 am
Since it’s pretty much a given we’ll be trading Amaya and/or Hoerner for another rent-a-closer at some point this season, may as well do it sooner rather than later and try and rack up a few more wins we may need in October.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 09, 2019, 08:50:38 am
Jesse Rogers


Quote
After breaking his old bat during a late April plate appearance in Phoenix, Bryant grabbed his backup, an Axe Bat, and homered on his first swing with it. He had never used the unique-looking lumber, but since then, that's all he has been swinging.


http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26702000/how-mid-bat-change-ax-handle-bat-helped-ignite-kris-bryant

(https://a1.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2019%2F0508%2Fr540139_400x600_2%2D3.jpg&w=534&cquality=40&format=jpg)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 09, 2019, 09:18:56 am
Since it’s pretty much a given we’ll be trading Amaya and/or Hoerner for another rent-a-closer at some point this season, may as well do it sooner rather than later and try and rack up a few more wins we may need in October.

The relief market is pretty thin, though. The free agent market next year is Will Smith and maybe Sean Doolittle (if his very affordable $6.5 million option doesn't get picked up) at the top, and then not much else. There are a few Strop/Cishek level guys, and then it's mostly crap behind that.

Will Smith is very good, but I doubt the Cubs like him so much that they'll give up one of their top two prospects for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 09, 2019, 09:41:08 am
Since it’s pretty much a given we’ll be trading Amaya and/or Hoerner for another rent-a-closer at some point this season, may as well do it sooner rather than later and try and rack up a few more wins we may need in October.

Amaya has put together a two-game hitting streak to lift his batting average over the Mendoza line, he's on fire and is now back up to .205. 

Top-ten guy Justin Steele is at 10.97 ERA. 

First-round pick Alex Lange is at 13.50 ERA. 

Having such a horrific farm system really limits what they can do. 

Some of the off-season ranking placed one or two other farm systems as even worse than the Cubs.  But given how terribly the top-20 guys have performed thus far, it's almost inconceivable that any other organization could have as terrible a collection of minor-league talent as the Cubs have. 

Back in the pre-Hendry days, the Cubs sometimes had some lousy minor leaguers.  But I don't think I can ever remember the system being anything close to this bad. 

Hopefully a couple of guys will emerge soon. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 09, 2019, 11:06:02 am
Sahadev Sharma (and Kris Bryant) on Bryant's shift to using an Axe Bat.


https://theathletic.com/969609/2019/05/09/new-bat-type-new-bat-handle-kris-bryant-is-back-to-being-the-hitting-hero-the-cubs-need/

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 09, 2019, 11:19:12 am
Your analysis feels a bit harsh to me, Craig.  What about Amaya's age for his league (and his OBP/defensive skills)?  Same with Ademan and with Roederer at low A.  Those guys don't have to help right away...what young hitters MUST do in today's game is learn how to command the strike zone in A ball (e.g. it eventually caught up to Corey Patterson and does with most young guys with plus talent, who don't develop plate discipline).

You mention how awful Steele and Lange have been, so mention how terrific Tyson Miller has been.  He's a legit prospect at this point.  Do you think Brailyn Marquez and Adbert Alzolay don't have value (for different reasons)?  Best guess is that Dakota Mekkes will heat up, move up and help the big club this year.

Riley Thompson, also at low A, has more to prove before he's commanding attention, but he's quite interesting.  So is Yovanny Cruz.  There are some other good arms moving up through our system.

And, more importantly, with the Hendry teams, while our farm may have been more interesting, but it's really all about what happens at the top level.  No question, most of the above guys won't make it to the show with the Cubs, but some may well have value to other teams in trades that will benefit the big club.

I don't think the Farm cupboard is bare at all...more importantly, the MLB club is rather loaded...though, like every other team, we will always need more pitching.  Up to Theo to figure out how to make that happen and, as long as he's leading the charge, I suspect we will...in part due to different contributions from the farm.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 09, 2019, 11:49:40 am
Miller has been excellent, that would be great if he emerges. 

And Alzolay has a shot to be a significant guy at some point, even if he hasn't been healthy enough to pitch effectively in league games for a couple of seasons.   Would be super huge if he could emerge as an acceptable 5th starter next year, or as a contributing reliever late this year. 

Ademan's hitting .250, so huge improvement.  Although not sure a low-HR .250-hitter who's projected by some to maybe need to move off of SS, I'm not sure how compelling of a value that is.

And some other position players hitting badly are young, yes.

I agree, if we sell our top guys, we may still be able to pick up a reliever. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 09, 2019, 11:57:39 am
You can always tell when craig got up on the wrong side of the bed.  ;)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 12:50:15 pm
Ademan's hitting .250, so huge improvement.  Although not sure a low-HR .250-hitter who's projected by some to maybe need to move off of SS, I'm not sure how compelling of a value that is.

And some other position players hitting badly are young, yes.

I agree, if we sell our top guys, we may still be able to pick up a reliever. 

Since when is batting average the end all of hitting stats? 

Ademan at 20 years, 7 months has a .250/.400/.408 line for a wRC of 137.  He's still very young for the league and is supposed to be an excellent defensive SS. 

Amaya at 20 years, 2 months, has a .205/.364/.432 for a wRC+ of 130.  His BABIP is .226, so there is likely some bad luck going on.  His BB% is 17.3% with a 20% K% and an excellent defensive catcher.  Dude would bring a haul back in trade.  For reference Willson's younger brother is at the same level and is 1 year, 2 months older than Amaya he has a .290/.356/.383 slash line with a .357 BABIP. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 09, 2019, 12:52:09 pm
Craig is in North Dakota.  Both sides of the bed are the bad side.

He will be better if a couple of months, when most of the snow has melted.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 12:55:38 pm
The relief market is pretty thin, though. The free agent market next year is Will Smith and maybe Sean Doolittle (if his very affordable $6.5 million option doesn't get picked up) at the top, and then not much else. There are a few Strop/Cishek level guys, and then it's mostly crap behind that.

Will Smith is very good, but I doubt the Cubs like him so much that they'll give up one of their top two prospects for him.

Levine supposedly reported that the Giants and Tigers are scouting the Cubs heavily.  I'd be pretty interested in Shane Greene.  He isn't a free agent until 2021, strikes people out and doesn't walk people.  I wonder if something could be built around Happ.  I really don't want to trade Amaya or Hoerner.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on May 09, 2019, 01:02:34 pm
I can’t imagine the Cubs would trade Hoerner.  He should be their starting 2b next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 01:18:26 pm
I can’t imagine the Cubs would trade Hoerner.  He should be their starting 2b next year.

Yeah, Cubs typically only trade prospects where there’s a redundancy, including long-term youngers guys in majors: even with Eloy (Schwarber in LF) and Gleyber (Baez/Russell).

So, pretty confident that Hoerner isn’t going anywhere.

Doubtful for Amaya either, as he’s really only catching prospect in the organization—although maybe they think Caratini creates a redundancy. Would be surprised to see him dealt.

Agree that Happ could be traded.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 09, 2019, 02:01:55 pm
Levine supposedly reported that the Giants and Tigers are scouting the Cubs heavily.  I'd be pretty interested in Shane Greene.  He isn't a free agent until 2021, strikes people out and doesn't walk people.  I wonder if something could be built around Happ.  I really don't want to trade Amaya or Hoerner.

Shane Greene doesn't have much of a track record of being this good, though. Not sure he's really any more reliable or stable than what the Cubs already have.

If the Cubs want more of a shutdown type closer, I think Will Smith is the only one who will be out there this year. Sean Doolittle would be even better if the Nationals get to a point where they really want to retool.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 09, 2019, 02:26:37 pm
Greene has been a stud this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 03:23:56 pm
Shane Greene doesn't have much of a track record of being this good, though. Not sure he's really any more reliable or stable than what the Cubs already have.

If the Cubs want more of a shutdown type closer, I think Will Smith is the only one who will be out there this year. Sean Doolittle would be even better if the Nationals get to a point where they really want to retool.

Smith has a career 24 saves, he really doesn't have a history of being a shut down closer either.  His K% and swinging strike rates are down this year and he's a fly ball pitcher.  In the area of juiced balls those scare me, especially pitching away from San Francisco. 

Greene's swinging strike rate and ground balls are up this year, plus he has 2 more years of control. 

Even if Washington implodes are they really going to dump guys with all the money they've spent on their rotation?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 09, 2019, 03:53:38 pm
They already have a bunch of guys 'who can close.'  What they don't have is the shutdown closer--the guy who strikes a bit of fear into the other team.  "We gotta get to them before the ninth, because once Closer-guy comes in, we're cooked" as opposed to "we can get to this guy."  I don't know whether players really think that way, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did.  There aren't many of those guys, though.

If the team keeps playing at the current/2016 level, they might think seriously about Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 04:11:03 pm
After the draft I wouldn't be opposed to looking at Kimbrel, but he is risky. I'd prefer a 1 year deal for him and that would likely suck up any money left over for trades, but he might want a multiyear deal too. Holland and Arreita both struggled coming back from a much shorter lay off.   

Kimbrel also wasn't his normal self in the second half last year.
21 IP, 4.57 ERA, 37.4 K%, 16.5 BB%, 3.58 FIP, 3.75 xFIP. 

It carried over into the playoffs as well.
10.2 IP, 5.90 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 6.74 BB/9.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 04:46:36 pm
The relief market is pretty thin, though. The free agent market next year is Will Smith and maybe Sean Doolittle (if his very affordable $6.5 million option doesn't get picked up) at the top, and then not much else. There are a few Strop/Cishek level guys, and then it's mostly crap behind that.

Will Smith is very good, but I doubt the Cubs like him so much that they'll give up one of their top two prospects for him.

They might for Doolittle though, and if the Nats fall out of the race he could be available.  One of the names I was considering, certainly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 09, 2019, 04:53:15 pm
Holland and Arreita both struggled coming back from a much shorter lay off.   

Speaking of Holland, I had overlooked/forgotten about him earlier. He's a free agent after the season, isn't making much money, and has actually been very good since the Cardinals released him last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 05:10:04 pm
I think it’s pure fantasy to imagine the Cubs could get anyone decent for Happ. He’s a pure LIAB at this point. In fact it’s probably fantasy to think they’d get much for anyone in the system apart from Amaya and Hoerner. You have to beat the value of draft compensation for a rental, and anyone with multiple years of team control who you’d actually want is going to cost a fortune anyway. Every potential trade partner knows our nuts are in a vice here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 05:11:58 pm
After the draft I wouldn't be opposed to looking at Kimbrel, but he is risky. I'd prefer a 1 year deal for him and that would likely suck up any money left over for trades, but he might want a multiyear deal too. Holland and Arreita both struggled coming back from a much shorter lay off.   

Kimbrel also wasn't his normal self in the second half last year.
21 IP, 4.57 ERA, 37.4 K%, 16.5 BB%, 3.58 FIP, 3.75 xFIP. 

It carried over into the playoffs as well.
10.2 IP, 5.90 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 6.74 BB/9.


Yeah, that’s why Kimbrel is still available.  There are question marks.

On the other side, Kimbrel was his old dominant self in 2017 (14 BB/126Ks) and he was really good first-half of 2018.

After the break 2018, he still was not getting hit but his walks went way up. After the break in 2018: .149 Opp BA and .311 Opp Slg.  That’s good. But, seems like the guys he walked tended to score. And, of course, he wasn’t good in post-season. Everybody saw that and remembers it and probably driving force on his market.

Still, would love to have him and would give him a 3-year deal because there will be competition once the draft and compensation is out of the way.

According to Roster Resource, Cubs are about $18 below the top (third) luxury tax tier for 2019. They are already in tier two.

If Kimbrel signs somewhere shortly after the draft, that lops off about 1/3 of his 2019 annual salary (assume luxury tax rules do too???). How much money did Theo hold back for mid-season addition(s)? Who knows, but maybe could fit in Kimbrel? Maybe Ricketts might add some more payroll money given the current circumstances?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 05:16:03 pm
By the way, Kimbrel’s adjusted career ERA, that is, ERA+, is better than Mariano Rivera.

Rivera has the best ERA+ of any BR qualified pitcher (starter or reliever) in baseball history.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 05:17:00 pm
Speaking of Holland, I had overlooked/forgotten about him earlier. He's a free agent after the season, isn't making much money, and has actually been very good since the Cardinals released him last year.

His velocity is down and his walks are too high but yeah, he’d be a good guy to take a flyer on. But I have to assume the Diamondbacks think they’re a potential contender, at least for now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 09, 2019, 05:24:51 pm
I'd call up Maples, or Mekkes, or Wyatt Short or Craig Brooks, before I'd want anything to do with Holland.

He's a ticking time bomb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 05:32:05 pm
I'd call up Maples, or Mekkes, or Wyatt Short or Craig Brooks, before I'd want anything to do with Holland.

He's a ticking time bomb.

Beggars can’t be choosers.

Really, the only one of those guys that’s a potentially interesting factor in 2019 is Maples. And he left time bomb in the dust years ago - he’s a bomb perpetually in the process of going off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 05:32:32 pm
I think it’s pure fantasy to imagine the Cubs could get anyone decent for Happ. He’s a pure LIAB at this point. In fact it’s probably fantasy to think they’d get much for anyone in the system apart from Amaya and Hoerner. You have to beat the value of draft compensation for a rental, and anyone with multiple years of team control who you’d actually want is going to cost a fortune anyway. Every potential trade partner knows our nuts are in a vice here.

Draft compensation is irrelevant here.

We’re talking relievers. Will Smith is not going to get a qualifying offer and, obviously, Nats are going to exercise Doolittle’s $6.5 option, so he’s going to be off the market. You can get a quality guy without giving up Hoerner or Amaya.

And, Happ still has considerable trade value, certainly in exchange for a reliever. He makes no money and has many years of team control, which is a driving force these days in determining value. Happ has a career OPS of .801 in the majors and is still 24. Most clubs would love to have him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 05:38:10 pm
The draft pick compensation for most players is basically a third round pick. It isn’t a huge value to beat.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 05:46:13 pm
Fantasy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 09, 2019, 05:50:29 pm
Brewers have off day.  So, we'll not only be in first place again tonight, but no worse than tie for first even after tomorrow's game.  I'd like to stay in first for a long time.  How about for the whole rest of the season? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 06:38:18 pm
I would happily give up any three players on the farm, including Happ and not named Amaya or Hoerner, for Greene. And Green is hardly a slam-dunk elite closer.  If the Tiggers would do hat kind of deal, great.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 06:47:01 pm
Fantasy.

Then explain the JD Martinez Trade to the DBacks if comp picks are so valuable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 09, 2019, 07:08:20 pm
Brewers have off day.  So, we'll not only be in first place again tonight, but no worse than tie for first even after tomorrow's game.  I'd like to stay in first for a long time.  How about for the whole rest of the season? 

But what about the Wild Card?   ;)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 07:51:59 pm
Then explain the JD Martinez Trade to the DBacks if comp picks are so valuable.

The fantasy is not so much that comp picks are valuable (though they do have some value) but that any of our prospects have real value apart from Amaya and Hoerner.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 09, 2019, 08:21:21 pm
Which has what to do with my post about draft pick compensation not being that valuable? 

The Cubs could trade something like Happ, Ademan, Marquez and a lottery ticket and bring something pretty interesting back. The Cubs have pieces to trade if they want to.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2019, 08:38:30 pm
Like I said, any three guys for Greene would be fine by me.  Those three included, plus the powerball.  But I don't think Detroit would do that deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 09:23:34 pm
That’s WAY too much for Shane Greene. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 09, 2019, 09:55:42 pm
Through his first 37.2 innings in 2018, Tyler Chatwood walked 32 batters.

Through his first 36.2 innings in 2019, Yu Darvish has walked 33 batters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 09, 2019, 10:59:04 pm
The draft pick compensation for most players is basically a third round pick. It isn’t a huge value to beat.

Well, it’s very late 2nd round, usually around #75 or so overall.

Cubs 3rd pick in 2018 was #98 overall, by comparison.

You’re right that it’s not “huge value” but I think organizations value a pick in that range. If you’re dealing for a guy who will be getting a QO, clubs definitely compare the player you’re offering compared to the value of the #75 pick.

Plus, revenue sharing clubs get a better compensation pick than #75.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 09, 2019, 11:00:34 pm
You mean the really poor teams like the Cardinals?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on May 09, 2019, 11:14:14 pm
Well, it’s very late 2nd round, usually around #75 or so overall.

Cubs 3rd pick in 2018 was #98 overall, by comparison.

You’re right that it’s not “huge value” but I think organizations value a pick in that range. If you’re dealing for a guy who will be getting a QO, clubs definitely compare the player you’re offering compared to the value of the #75 pick.

Plus, revenue sharing clubs get a better compensation pick than #75.

Depends on the org getting the pick, if the Rays or Astro's that are getting the 75th pick, the prospect will be better then about all but 1 of the cubs current prospects.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 10, 2019, 09:10:00 am
Up 1.5 in wildcard, Ron. 

Wildcard may start to be shaking out a little bit, as the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers have pulled away from some of the teams hanging around .500.

Will be interesting how the next month plays out in that regard, for teams like Arizona and San Diego, who have good records and are in the wildcard group for now; and for others like Pirates and Braves and Rockies who seem like they might end up being good, but for the moment are spinning at or under .500. 

For the moment 7 teams at least 4 games over. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on May 10, 2019, 09:13:33 am
Yes, there is. That's my point.

How do I access it
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 10, 2019, 09:38:34 am
How do I access it

Go to your Profile pull down menu and select Account Settings.  Then under Modify Profile, click on Buddies/Ignore List, then select Edit Ignore List.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 10:56:03 am
Well, it’s very late 2nd round, usually around #75 or so overall.

Cubs 3rd pick in 2018 was #98 overall, by comparison.

You’re right that it’s not “huge value” but I think organizations value a pick in that range. If you’re dealing for a guy who will be getting a QO, clubs definitely compare the player you’re offering compared to the value of the #75 pick.

Plus, revenue sharing clubs get a better compensation pick than #75.

The Dodgers comp B pick is #78.  The last second round pick is #69, the first third round pick is #79.  It is existentially a third round pick.

The only teams to issue a QO this off season where the Astros, DBacks, Nationals, Dodgers, and Red Sox.  None of those teams went into the deadline looking to sell big pieces.  The Nationals pick was after the 4th round for Harper, they could have gotten far more in a trade for him if they wanted to trade him.

Sure teams can do better than a comp B pick if they are revenue sharing, but the free agent has to sign for more than $50 million, 7 (if you count Kuckuchi) free agents met that threshold last season.  McCutchen was 1 of those and he was traded for Juan De Paula and Abiatal Avelino.  De Paula is a midly interesting guy who the Giants shipped out as part of package for Kevin Pillar.  Avelino is a 24 year old with a .641 OPS in 3 seasons at AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 11:24:15 am
Depends on the org getting the pick, if the Rays or Astro's that are getting the 75th pick, the prospect will be better then about all but 1 of the cubs current prospects.

Meet the #75 pick from the Astros in the 2017 draft.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa829488&position=OF
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 10, 2019, 12:05:27 pm
Meet him?  Can't pronounce him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 12:08:02 pm
Dutch always hating on poor Eastern Europeans.....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 10, 2019, 12:37:20 pm
CBJ, if you mean me, you just horrifically offended davep.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 10, 2019, 01:21:57 pm
The Dodgers comp B pick is #78.  The last second round pick is #69, the first third round pick is #79.  It is existentially a third round pick.....

Existentially is one thing but, in actuality, the pick goes into the record book as supplemental second round. Not third round. Second round. You can’t call an official second round pick to be third round.

It’s very late second round. Almost a high third round but actually second round.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 10, 2019, 01:28:09 pm
CBJ, if you mean me, you just horrifically offended davep.

We are used to foreigners wanting to be Dutch.  We don't resent it.  We understand it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 01:43:24 pm
Existentially is one thing but, in actuality, the pick goes into the record book as supplemental second round. Not third round. Second round. You can’t call an official second round pick to be third round.

It’s very late second round. Almost a high third round but actually second round.

The value to the teams in closer to a third round pick.
Pick #78 (only Comp B Pick) Draft slot is $793,000
Pick #42 (First second round is $1,771,000
Pick #69 (Last second round pick) $929,800

Difference in pick value is between the second round is $978,000 (42) to $136,000 (69) less for 78.  The difference between the Cubs second round pick and 78 is greater than the difference between 78 and the Cubs third rounder.

It takes 13 picks in third round to surpass the difference between 78 and 69.  The difference between 42 and 78 can't be equaled. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 10, 2019, 02:13:45 pm
Yeah, that’s an existential argument.

But, it’s still a second round pick. The monetary value is higher than every single third round pick. If you are a player drafted S2, you are a 2nd rounder in your official bio. Your agent and the club are going to agree that they start from that premise—S2.

Two is not three. If you advise a patient to take to take two pills after eating, try telling her it’s more like three, existentially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 02:32:38 pm
If you advise a patient to take to take two pills after eating, try telling her it’s more like three, existentially.

That's super easy, one of the pills is combo so the are taking 2 pills, but really three medications.

A team that is making decisions on what to do doesn't care what the pick is listed as or if the player tells his buddies what round he was drafted in.  They care about the value of the pick.  The value of the pick is closer to that of a third rounder. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 10, 2019, 03:09:31 pm
That's super easy, one of the pills is combo so the are taking 2 pills, but really three medications.

A team that is making decisions on what to do doesn't care what the pick is listed as or if the player tells his buddies what round he was drafted in.  They care about the value of the pick.  The value of the pick is closer to that of a third rounder. 

But you told the patient that two pills are closer to three—-now they’re taking SIX medications. Let’s call that existential medicine. Not sure I want that.

Obviously, a 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick. When somebody comes to your door and tries to sell that two is really three, close the door.

In any case, there is another element of value at work here that is attractive to clubs: flexibility.

These are EXTRA picks to work with and clubs can use that slot money in a way that can impact their entire draft. Very attractive to them. It’s like found money.

Indeed, Cubs moved money around with both their comp picks just last year. Comp pick Roederer got WAY over slot. Or, with one comp pick, you can use that to pay more for a first rounder while undersloting the comp pick. The other Cubs comp pick, Richan, got considerably under slot.

That flexibility has real value, aside from the pick placement, and clubs are reluctant to lose that. Just ask Kimbrel and Kuechel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 03:45:57 pm
But you told the patient that two pills are closer to three—-now they’re taking SIX medications. Let’s call that existential medicine. Not sure I want that.
1 pill is one medicine.  1 pill is a combo.  2 pills, 3 medicines. 

Obviously, a 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick. When somebody comes to your door and tries to sell that two is really three, close the door.

In any case, there is another element of value at work here that is attractive to clubs: flexibility.
These are EXTRA picks to work with and clubs can use that slot money in a way that can impact their entire draft. Very attractive to them. It’s like found money.
Indeed, Cubs moved money around with both their comp picks just last year. Comp pick Roederer got WAY over slot. Or, with one comp pick, you can use that to pay more for a first rounder while undersloting the comp pick. The other Cubs comp pick, Richan, got considerably under slot.
That flexibility has real value, aside from the pick placement, and clubs are reluctant to lose that. Just ask Kimbrel and Kuechel.

Richan saved the Cubs $312,900, which is less that what you can get from putting your 8-10th round picks. 

If the Cubs did a senior sign with the comp pick and moved it to the first round it would have moved their spending money up to around the 17th pick from 24th.  You aren't getting a huge over slot with that.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 10, 2019, 04:33:11 pm

If the Cubs did a senior sign with the comp pick and moved it to the first round it would have moved their spending money up to around the 17th pick from 24th.  You aren't getting a huge over slot with that.


Here’s another one. You can get a first-rounder with your second round pick, under your senior sign scenario.

From Cubs #62 overall pick, take the senior money and can spend equivalent of slot money for Supp 1 at #40. That’s moving up 22 picks. Is that value?

Of course, you will say Supp 1 is actually second round but, aside from that, it has value that clubs might want to keep. Lots of ways to move slot money around...and it’s valuable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2019, 05:09:51 pm
Here’s another one. You can get a first-rounder with your second round pick, under your senior sign scenario.

From Cubs #62 overall pick, take the senior money and can spend equivalent of slot money for Supp 1 at #40. That’s moving up 22 picks. Is that value?

Of course, you will say Supp 1 is actually second round but, aside from that, it has value that clubs might want to keep. Lots of ways to move slot money around...and it’s valuable.

In your example where you could around the 40th pick value by putting on of the picks.  You are going to be able to offer more than what the 50th team can pay for prospect.  Again not a huge value, but it does have some.  The Cubs were able to get a mid-seconded rounder and a late 4th rounder out of 2 competitive balance picks and some other under slotting.  It has value.  It isn't world changing even if just 1 of the two picks turns into a star and chances are good that they won't turn into anything, because most second rounders don't turn into anything. 

Craig Edwards did draft pick value for fangraphs.  The 70th pick was worth about $3.8 million, the 40th $7.6 million.  In prospect value that equates to a FV 45+ pitcher for the 40th pick and a 40+ position player for the 70th pick.  Using Cubs prospect grades from Fangraphs that is Albert Alzolay and Zach Short.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

But math is hard and FanGraphs is for nerds.  So let's look at how MLB teams value CB picks...

"And three, these 14 competitive balance picks are tradeable! They are the only tradeable picks in the entire draft. For whatever reason they are only tradeable during the regular season though, not during the offseason. Also, they can not be traded for cash and they can only be traded once. These picks don't have a ton of value. In recent seasons they've been traded for middle relievers and depth players, or as the third or fourth piece in a trade."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2018-mlb-draft-14-small-market-teams-receive-competitive-balance-picks/"

The have value, it isn't great.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 10, 2019, 05:53:35 pm

..But math is hard and FanGraphs is for nerds.  So let's look at how MLB teams value CB picks...The have value, it isn't great.


They have enough value that, in the real world, they seem to be delaying and impacting Kimbrel and Keuchel signings.  These guys are not middle reliever types or depth players, obviously.  So, there is real impact, even as to valuable guys.

Nobody is arguing that comp picks have "great' value.  Indeed, this discussion started with agreement on that point.  So, it's not really helpful to say "great value" as if that's the standard in which clubs make decisions or that it is even relevant to this discussion.

In any case, the topic started with Cubs bullpen needs and trade value, so relievers value is actually directly on point, even putting aside the Kimbrel/Keuchel examples. 


 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 10, 2019, 11:52:12 pm
Smith controlled only this season, or Greene through 2020 - I'd assume Greene would cost more, though if that weren't an issue I suspect Smith would be a tougher get.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 11, 2019, 10:50:18 am
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/cubs-activate-xavier-cedeno-place-allen-webster-on-il.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 11, 2019, 12:17:30 pm
Wonder if Cedeno was bumping up against a contractual right to opt-out date, unless brought up to majors.

Convenient that Webster has arm injury after throwing an ineffective 95 on Friday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 11, 2019, 07:39:10 pm
Len and JD speculated on roster move(s) before Sunday night.

Tyler Chatwood was the only reliever who went more than an inning but he's not going anywhere.  Maybe they'll hope for a long start out of Jon Lester.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 12, 2019, 06:54:39 am
Wonder if Cedeno was bumping up against a contractual right to opt-out date, unless brought up to majors.

Convenient that Webster has arm injury after throwing an ineffective 95 on Friday.
Maybe Webster needs to talk to Holland?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26727778/holland-rips-giants-brass-says-faked-injury
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 12, 2019, 07:25:53 am
Nice to see Will Venable get credit for great, smart 3rd base coaching by aggressively sending Bote home with Cole Hamels in the on-deck circle and two outs.  One of the key plays in the game.  (and great slide by Bote)

I'm also very glad Cubs continue to bring in VERY hi-quality people into the organization!

I was lucky to get to Coach Will Venable in Little League 25+ years ago (Will was 11).  What a wonderful kid!  Played the game the right way (of course, his Dad, Max Venable, had a long major league career and was always great with the kids when in town and available).

Will weighed about 80 pounds, but hit the ball SO hard we always had to remind the other team's coaches to move the 1st baseman back.  He hit a couple of home runs that year at least 50' over the fence.  He was amazing as a player and a person.  So, we weren't surprised when he graduated from Princeton and, despite playing a lot more basketball than baseball there, was drafted in R7 by Sandy Alderson, then with the As.  Will also had a nice playing career.

One day, I could imagine Will taking a managerial job or a key front-office role, hopefully, with the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 12, 2019, 09:14:39 am
I’m not sure that Smith is a huge upgrade on Kintzler, Cishek or Strop as a closer. He would certainly improve the left handed deliver options though. I’d be hesitant to trade for him, but with all the free agents the Cubs have next year I’d target him as a free agent. Greene intrigues me and with the extra control I’d give up more for him.

Watson would be an interesting and cheaper option to improve the bullpen from the left side. As well as Chatwood has pitched I wonder if he could get some closing opportunities.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 12, 2019, 04:31:41 pm
Watson as a cheaper option is fine in a vacuum.  But the Cubs need an end-of-game guy, and Smith can be that.  He's been very good statistically his last 4 seasons and there's no drop in velocity to indicate any arm issues.  He's not an elite closer but he's certainly better than what we have on paper.  And I really think Strop works much better as an 8th inning guy - getting him back in that role needs to be a priority.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 12, 2019, 08:28:06 pm
Strop has more career saves and has historically been the better pitcher.

Kintzler has been amazing this year he could close too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 12, 2019, 09:27:11 pm
The Cubs have maybe gotten some good luck with their bullpen work.  Maybe gotten away with some mistake pitches and maybe some hard contact too. 

But they've been really getting the job done for a while now.  Chatwood pitching so well, and Kintzler being effective and a pretty consistent strike-thrower, has been really nice. 

In camp, Maddon didn't give his veteran relievers much work at all.  Perhaps not surprisingly, some of them didn't come out very sharp, Cishek and Brach both struggling pretty seriously with their April control.  But I wonder if both guys are maybe settling in better now?  Both have seemed to have strung together some mostly effective outings lately.  Both have sub-3 ERA's, and seem hard to hit.  **IF** their control is starting to get a little less bad, maybe they'll be able to be pretty good. 

For the moment, Cishek-Brach-Kintzler-Chatwood-Edwards seems to give Maddon a decent pool of usable relievers at present, and Montgomery too.  I assume Strop won't be gone forever.  I'd love to have somebody really automatically great and low-stress to turn to, and that's just not going to happen.  But if the rotation can keep giving 6-7 innings, and the bullpen only has 2-3 innings to fill per normal game, it's possible that pool could handle winning two games out of three without getting burned out.  Hopefully. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 12, 2019, 09:28:51 pm
Today Kintzler went 1.1, and Chatwood and Montgomery both have eaten innings in wins.  It might be nice for the pen if Maddon trusted several of these guys with 2-inning outings.  Pretty excellent day for winning the game but not frying the pen after the long Saturday game. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 12, 2019, 10:30:53 pm
Kintzler has been amazingly lucky.  Ride it as long as you can, but it's not going to last.  He's been decent two of the last four years, awful the other two, and his velocity is the lowest it's been in his career.  It's good he remembered how to throw strikes, but he's not fooling any hitters and no playoff team in their right mind would want him closing for them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 13, 2019, 12:28:20 am
Kintzler has a 56% GB%. His swinging strike rate is near a career high.  His contact rate is 78%, compared to Smith 76%.

I really don’t see the need to pay for the cost of Smith in a trade. He’ll be expensive and isn’t a clear improvement over what the Cubs have. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 12:38:08 am
Hopefully Theo disagrees.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 13, 2019, 12:41:57 am
Cubs bullpen has the 8th best ERA and 5th best xFIP in baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2019, 01:22:44 am
Cubs bullpen ERA is #3 in NL.

Cubs SP ERA is #1 in NL.

Cubs Runs Scored Per Game is #1 in NL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 01:27:31 am
If anything, the fact that the bullpen has somehow not been a total disaster yet makes this the perfect time to bolster it, as we'll look less desperate.

We also have 6 BS and are 14th out of 15 NL teams in save %.  No, those aren't perfect stats but if you think everything is fine with the status quo - especially after the last four postseasons - I'll respectfully disagree.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2019, 01:37:08 am
Kintzler was very solid each of the last three seasons, except for his 2018 Cubs stint. And, he has worked as a closer. That bad stint now seems to be an outlier.

Think he is throwing exceptionally well now, but he has a .184 BABIP right now which figures to be unsustainable. Guessing he will go from dominant to very solid as the season progresses. 

Agree with CBJ that Smith is not a guy who necessarily would go to the head of the class in a Cubs bullpen. But, would be a good addition.

The guy who would go to the head of the class in a Cubs bullpen is a healthy Morrow—-and Cubs don’t have to trade prospects for him or add payroll. So, let’s wait awhile longer to see how that plays out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2019, 01:44:36 am
Everybody knows that bullpens can be volatile and nobody here is advocating a status quo approach.

No sense reinventing the wheel every other day because below is what Theo just said a few days ago and guessing just about everybody here on board with this:

"We recognize this is a year we're gonna constantly be on the look out to make adjustments to the bullpen to try to put the right relievers in the right position to be successful, that we'll have to tweak and adjust over the course of the year as we go and that we'll receive a lot of help both internally and probably at some point from outside the organization.

"We have been in — and will continue to be in — an aggressive mindset with respect to the bullpen. I think the results thus far have been outstanding, but that doesn't mean we become passive or assume that's going to continue going forward. We're going to be challenged in that area throughout the course of the year and we have to continue to be resourceful.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 01:47:45 am
I can imagine no scenario where Morrow should be any factor in any bullpen decisions.  Assume he's gone and if he happens to come back and contribute in any way, treat that as an unexpected bonus.  His track record offers no reason for any optimism that he'll pitch again this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2019, 02:41:09 am
We’ll see about Morrow. Right now, it’s May 13 and there’s nothing much to “decide” on the bullpen. Events will dictate future decisions. Obviously, if Morrow can go, it impacts future decisions. If he can’t go, that too impacts future decisions. Pointless right now to be confident or not confident about him. Just have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 09:15:26 am
In case anyone is wondering whether Contreras’ supposed miraculous improvement in framing is showing up in the stats, he’s dead last on Fangraphs among C with at least 100 innings caught, and 74th out of 76 on BP. He does a lot of things well, but there’s sure no evidence he has the potential to be a decent framer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 13, 2019, 09:45:31 am
Meh, pitch framing is a BS stat to begin with.  I don't think the Cubs and their second in the league team ERA is getting hurt too badly from Contreras' framing. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 13, 2019, 10:49:49 am
There are times when Willson frames the ball well and times he doesn't.  It is a work in progress, but with a wRC+ of 170 it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 13, 2019, 12:51:57 pm
Contreras is a legitimate All Star catcher, and that takes into account framing.  There is no player in history that was perfect in every aspect, and taken as a whole, Contreras is a great asset to the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 13, 2019, 02:22:32 pm
Quote
pitch framing is a BS stat to begin with

I still think they should call it "umpire fooling."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2019, 02:25:22 pm
Very hard to overstate the offensive edge Cubs have over other NL clubs at catcher.

Average NL team OPS at catcher is .706.

2nd best NL catcher OPS is .792.

Cubs catcher OPS is 1.080.

So, Cubs almost 300 points better than the 2nd best in NL!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 04:29:04 pm
Meh, pitch framing is a BS stat to begin with.  I don't think the Cubs and their second in the league team ERA is getting hurt too badly from Contreras' framing. 

When the BS shows the same thing year after year, you have to sort of think that even if it's a rough and imprecise measure, there's something to it.  The question of whether framing is that important is a different one and pretty subjective.  The question of whether Contreras is really bad at it seems a lot less subjective at this point.

And yeah, when said catcher is OPS-ing 1K that obviously cancels out a lot of faults.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 13, 2019, 05:18:58 pm
Willson Contreras sits down with Kelly Crull

Fast forward to the 14:28 mark.  Pitch framing comes up at around 19:30

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-talk-podcast-cubs-take-two-three-brewers-willson-contreras-sits-down-kelly-crull
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2019, 05:38:02 pm
All I see there are bloggers.

Journalists are people who studied journalism academically and/or apprenticed with actual journalists, that is, have professional standards. It’s a profession. Anybody off the street can claim to “report.”

It's "a profession" the same way **** is a profession.  The idea that there are meaningful standards, some requirement of having a degree or an apprenticeship is nonsense.  And I say that as I believe the only person posting here who worked as a professional journalist for any period of time (ten years) and who has an actual degree in journalism.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2019, 06:07:52 pm
Further, you're going to have to tell a bunch of decorated and respected lawyers-turned-journalists that they're inappropriately credentialed for their jobs.

Who would this "bunch" be and what decorations is it that they have?

let's note that the Cubs and Russell have not denied the abuse allegations. Russell publicly apologized. The MLB found him in violation of policy after investigating. The Cubs are requiring Russell's treatment by professionals. Whatever happened between Russell and his wife, it was abusive.

Perhaps it was.  And perhaps Russell and the Cubs both recognized that from a public relations standpoint it was best not to argue the matter and simply move on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2019, 07:18:01 pm
While what that guy did is almost certainly reprehensible, the somewhat comical irony is that you won't find too many black guys "whiter" than Doug Glanville.

Say what?

What makes Glanville white?  What would make him "more" "black"?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2019, 07:56:10 pm
My deal with all of this is Melissa Reidy sure as hell doesnt come across as a humble,sweet,little,innocent,victim if you follow her much at all like my wife who is also Philipino does.

Are "humble,sweet,little,innocent" women the only ones who can be victims?

Or the only ones we should be concerned with?


But what if she did kick his dog,call his momma a ****,and give his best friend a BJ?

Would you feel differently about it then?

No.  Not one bit.  Not if he caught her giving his best friend a BJ.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 13, 2019, 09:13:54 pm
If you missed it, @karlravechespn told us that internally, the #Cubs would like Javy to bounce around the infield eventually.  And want Addison Russell to play well enough to play shortstop nearly everyday. This surprised both @TWaddle87 and me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 13, 2019, 09:36:24 pm
https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1190584001?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2019, 09:52:25 pm
That idea of bouncing Javy around the diamond is so dumb even Bleachernation is dismayed by it. I would like to believe a second hand report of what the organization is supposedly thinking is not reliable in this case. If it is, it absolutely defies belief.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 13, 2019, 10:05:50 pm
Thanks, Dusty.  Nice to have Cubs talking positive about Happ.  It would be pretty huge if he did emerge as a useful big-league player.  Zagunis hasn't been very useful, and with Zobrist gone, and terminal contract anyway, they're going to be positioned where a Happ could really help. 

But one of the issues with Happ will be hitting strikes. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 13, 2019, 10:48:28 pm
A lot of people seem to want the Cubs to trade Russell.  They would certainly get more in return for a shortstop than for a second baseman with equal offensive production.  And Baez performs well regardless of where they play him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 13, 2019, 11:23:57 pm
Dave, I don't think that factors.  If a team is looking for a good-defense SS, the fact that Russell isn't playing SS ahead of Baez won't impact their evaluation.  Everybody knows he's capable and outstanding defensively at SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 13, 2019, 11:25:28 pm
Guys, these are the Cubs.  Trade Russell and two days later, Baez will tear up a knee and be out for the year.  Bank it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 13, 2019, 11:46:50 pm
A lot of people seem to want the Cubs to trade Russell.  They would certainly get more in return for a shortstop than for a second baseman with equal offensive production.  And Baez performs well regardless of where they play him.

I don't care what the Cubs get back for Russell. Most of us who want the Cubs to trade Russell would've preferred that they'd just non-tendered him for nothing six months ago.

Baez is the best Cubs shortstop since Banks. Moving him around to accommodate Russell just so the Cubs can get a marginal prospect instead of a AAAA player is silly.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 14, 2019, 12:35:48 am
A lot of people seem to want the Cubs to trade Russell.  They would certainly get more in return for a shortstop than for a second baseman with equal offensive production.  And Baez performs well regardless of where they play him.

He's performing better as the everyday SS than he ever did as the utility guy.

As to trading Russell, what BR said.  No GM would try to bargain down on the grounds that Russell can't handle SS defensively - there's nothing to prove there. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on May 14, 2019, 12:45:23 am
Russell has a career 704 ops that would be tied for 21st this year w Orlando Arcia. Baez is second at .988.

Fantastic idea.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 14, 2019, 02:37:46 am
But when you've got a glove like Ozzie Smith that doesnt matter as much especially when you're still young and have proven in the past the potential is there to be a good hitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 14, 2019, 07:59:23 am
If this were a baseball decision only it would be silly to give up on Addison Russell right now. He plays either 2nd or SS at an elite level, has shown he can be an impact bat and is only 25 years old. He certainly could be done growing into his skills, or he could be a few years from his peak and if given a chance could form an elite middle of the diamond with Contreras and Baez that no team in baseball could match. Couple that with Rizzo and Bryant at the corners and you have elite defense and offense that makes the sketchy OF production almost irrelevant. Of course not every young player adjusts once big league pitchers figure them out. Addison is now 3 years from his impact offensive season and has battled injury the last two seasons that have hampered his progress. If this were a baseball discussion there is no way the Cubs would be looking to move Russell. In fact, with Nico knocking at the door I could see the Cubs moving Baez to 3rd full time with Bryant in the OF full time when Nico is ready. There is room on the Cubs for a healthy, top of his game Addison Russell.

All of that being said I also understand those who simply want him gone. I do have a question, not an argument, but a sincere question for those who want him gone because of what he has done. If you knew going forward that Russell will never do what he did again, that the treatment the Cubs are demanding and apparently overseeing would help a young man better himself and become a better person if not a good one. If you knew that without the Cubs zero tolerance policy towards him going forward Addison would not be able to see the world through this different prism. Do you still want him gone if you know all of this? Do you not believe he can ever improve himself with the Cub's help? If he can improve do you believe his mistakes are just too great to be given that chance? It seems to me that Theo believes all of the above except that his sins are unforgivable. Is that a rational belief even if it is contrary to yours? Does Theo perhaps have more information than we do? He knows Addison, has consulted with teammates who know him better still, knows what steps are being taken to rehabilitate this young man into a better one.
I am inclined to give people second chances. I don't know why I feel that way. I usually have zero tolerance for women abusers and child abusers so this is a tough one for me personally. I have been impacted by abuse of all kinds in my own family so it would be easy to write Addison off as another abuser who was caught and should be punished. I was surprised by the Cub's approach to this, but I see what they are doing and hope it can work. If one man can turn this around with their help they will have done far more than winning a championship, they will have changed a life for the better. Maybe that is a naive hope to some here, maybe Addison crashes and burns and they release him in shame, but that is now up to him. He will either prove or disprove their trust in him. Either way I believe the attempt is worth it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 08:36:51 am
Cubs are five up in the loss column on both the Cards and Brewers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 14, 2019, 09:42:53 am
Maybe Baez made adjustments at the plate and that is why he is hitting better?  Bryant has played LF, RF, 3B and 1B this year and it isn't effecting his offensive production, is the argument that Baez is inferior to Bryant?. 

If the Cubs are going to keep Russell on the roster and they think they are a better team with Russell at SS and Baez floating between 2B, SS and 3B then they should put out what they think is the best team.  I'd be happy if Russell was gone from the Cubs , so it isn't just me defending Russell.  FWIW, I just listened to Buster's podcast after the Cardinals series.  Tim Kurkjian had heard that the Cubs consider Baez more impactful on defense at 2B than SS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 14, 2019, 09:48:58 am
I don't see any justification for moving Baez off of SS.  He is making routine plays and tough plays and has a cannon for an arm.  How anyone would think he is more impactful as a second baseman is a mystery to me.  Russell is better defensively at 2B than anyone on the roster other than Baez, and if Russell hits well enough his playing time should come at 2B.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 10:23:58 am
Russell is a better SS than Baez and Baez used to be better at 2B than he was at SS (hard to know if still true) but, as explained last week, I am in favor of leaving Baez at SS where he is thriving and working the lesser guys around him, rather than vice versa.

Just leave him alone and let him do his thing.

As to Bryant, think it was very important to develop him as a primary 3B when he came up, which Cubs did, because was not clear at that time whether Bryant could be solid defensively at 3B. Mission accomplished. But, Bryant is not an up-the-middle player and seems to enjoy playing a variety of positions, without any apparent downside. Baez is so mercurial that reluctant to change anything while he has reached this level of excellence.

Having Russell too as a superb SS is a good problem to have—-like having too much good pitching. Usually that kind of thing sorts itself out over time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on May 14, 2019, 10:34:56 am
Great post, Robb. I believe that Russell undoubtedly did some awful things, was clearly abusive, and I certainly don’t feel remotely sorry for him for what he’s faced since. But like you, I also believe in second chances, and support the Cubs approach. (And that view is coming from a rare female BBF poster, for whatever that’s worth.)

Honestly, the only thing that makes me not root for him – as a player and a human being – is the ridiculous over the top support he has from a handful of people on this board. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on May 14, 2019, 10:35:47 am
And hell no they shouldn’t move Javy off short.


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Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 14, 2019, 10:42:00 am
Mercurial is an odd way to describe a Baez.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 03:10:35 pm
Mercurial is an odd way to describe a Baez.

Less so than earlier in his career, but still a player of extremes and volatility, I think. Great ABs, bad ABs, and never know what to expect from him. Think getting to be less that way but still there. At some point, perhaps that term will be inappropriate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 14, 2019, 03:18:28 pm
When somebody says mercurial and inconsistent approach at the plate isn't what comes to mind.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on May 14, 2019, 03:29:06 pm
Warning!  Semantics Argument Alert!  Warning!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 03:35:32 pm
“Inconsistent” is a common usage of mercurial and one of its definitions. Methinks somebody is looking for a pointless argument.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 03:37:17 pm
Rosenthal on Kyle Ryan:

To hear Cubs left-hander Kyle Ryan tell it, he nearly retired after following his 2016 breakout with a dismal 2017 season for the Tigers.
“I was toast. I was ready to go,” Ryan says. “I couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn.”
A meeting with a Cubs executive next to a driving range at the Waldorf Astoria in Orlando changed the course of Ryan’s career.
The executive, Kyle Evans, was attending the general managers’ meetings at the hotel. He invited Ryan, a free agent, to make the 41-mile drive from his home in Auburndale, Fl., to discuss his future.
“Something was wrong. I couldn’t figure it out,” Ryan says. “And no offense to the Tigers, but they couldn’t figure it out, either.”
According to Ryan, Evans said, in essence, “This is what’s wrong. We know how to fix you.” To which Ryan responded, “OK, sign me up.”
The Cubs remembered what Ryan, 27, had accomplished in ’16, and did not flinch knowing he average only 90 mph with his fastball.
“We viewed Kyle as a guy who had a lot of major-league success when he was 24 years old,” says Evans, who has since moved from the Cubs’ director of pro scouting to their senior director of player personnel.
“It certainly wasn’t shaped the way the vast majority of the game is going, in terms of velocity and spin rates and all these things we’re chasing. But major-league hitters told us Kyle could be really effective doing what he did really well. We felt like he had gotten away from that.”
The Cubs, with the help of special assistant Jim Benedict, minor-league pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara and the team’s analytics department, suggested a handful of mechanical and physical adjustments to Ryan, including increased flexibility, a return to the first-base side of the rubber and a lower and wider arm slot.
Ryan bought in and, after agreeing to a minor-league deal, spent the entire ’18 season in Triple A, producing a 2.86 ERA in 14 relief appearances and eight starts. The Cubs’ decision-makers, reluctant to lose Ryan after overseeing his turnaround, then signed him to a one-year major-league contract on Nov. 28 — a deal that increased from $555,000 to $700,000 when he spent one day in the majors.
That day came on April 6, when the Cubs summoned him from Triple A with their bullpen reeling. Ryan since has helped spark the pen’s improvement, striking out 16 and issuing five unintentional walks and holding opponents to a .574 OPS in 13 1/3 innings.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 14, 2019, 04:11:49 pm
Great story, Reb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 14, 2019, 04:20:01 pm
Mercurial is just odd way choice to describe to a Hispanic player, especially given the words roots.  For all the concern about Baez preforming and having to move around he is pretty last year with it.  Pre Russell suspension he hit .294/.329/.569 (.897 OPS) 4.4 BB%, 25.3 K%.  Post suspension he hit .244/.292/.378 (.669 OPS) with a 6.3% BB%, 33.3 K% with a .357 BABIP.

Baez is always going to have hot and cold steaks.  The cold streaks have gotten smaller and better, because of changes in his approach.  His defensive position has little to do with it.  The Baez must play SS because otherwise he's going to fail sells him short.  The only reason for Baez to remain at SS is because it makes the Cubs a better team.  The Cubs/Madden are going to be in a far better position to judge that with the data that they have than anybody on this board. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 05:03:29 pm
Of course, nobody said Baez should play SS “because otherwise he’s going to fail.”

That kind of garbling of another’s point of view is unfortunate and undermines what otherwise might be a good discussion.

The principle that elite guys should play where they are most likely to thrive-as-elite is as old as baseball itself. Bill James wrote much about that in the earliest Abstracts with examples of how bad organizations tend to do otherwise because the elite guys tend to be the most versatile and can be moved around, even if they shouldn’t be.

How that principle is appropriately applied in a given case, such as this one, is subject to debate, as every case is a bit different.

Of course, Baez is not “going to fail”—a red herring if there ever was one—but treating him in a way that is conducive for an elite guy helps the club in the long run. Short-term expediency is the enemy of the long-term best practice. That’s the risk when you accomodate the lesser players at the expense of the elite guys. Whether that’s the case with moving Baez off of SS is not a clear black or white decision, but the respecting the principle is what good organizations do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 14, 2019, 05:12:39 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  21m21 minutes ago
Updates from Theo...
1. Morrow will be evaulated this week, could resume throwing soon
2. Hoerner (hand) will head to AZ later this week to resume hitting program
3. Alzolay will start Fri for AAA Iowa
4. Barnette to throw in extended spring game Wed
5. Caratini coming back soon

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  8m8 minutes ago
And relax, folks. Javy remains full-time shortstop. Any chance of even a rest probably won’t happen until after Rizzo returns (with Russell filling in at SS)

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  23m23 minutes ago
And Duensing nagged by sore shoulder

Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  17m17 minutes ago
There was a recent report indicating that the Cubs internally envision Russell at SS and having Baez moving around between 2B/SS/3B. Both Maddon and Epstein said today there is no truth to that report. The plan going forward is sticking with Baez as the everyday SS.

Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  9m9 minutes ago
Third-base coach Brian Butterfield dealing with vertigo. Maddon said Butter has gone through testing and is getting treatment. "He's been through it before," Maddon said. Said he just has to "ride it out." In meantime, Will Venable will continue filling in as 3B coach.

Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  26m26 minutes ago
Still no timeline for Zobrist’s return to Cubs. Given as much time as he needs for undisclosed personal matter.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 14, 2019, 05:32:52 pm
Do the Cubs still continue to pay Zobrist’s salary while he’s on this type of leave?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 14, 2019, 05:43:36 pm
Do the Cubs still continue to pay Zobrist’s salary while he’s on this type of leave?

No.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 14, 2019, 05:50:16 pm
A little for the bullpen mid-season kitty then, I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 14, 2019, 05:56:42 pm
Not necessary.  We can trade Baez for a LOOGY
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 14, 2019, 06:05:09 pm
Not necessary.  We can trade Baez for a LOOGY

The Ricketts Family Yacht Maintenance fund is always scrambling for resources. Every little bit helps.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 14, 2019, 07:49:37 pm
No.

I think it is up to the team if he gets paid or not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2019, 08:29:32 pm
As CBJ notes, Cubs can pay Zobrist as a courtesy. It’s an excused absence. Guessing they will do that unless it’s a very prolonged absence, in which case Cubs probably would work with him on terms.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 14, 2019, 09:06:09 pm
I still find Zobrist's absence strange.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 14, 2019, 09:53:40 pm
I don't see why you would consider it strange.  He is having severe family problems, and is at the point in his financial and professional life where he can afford to take time off to try to resolve the problems.

The fact that we have not been told exactly WHAT those private problems are, seems quite reasonable.

I think that it is a tribute to Zobrist's character and relationship with the press that his problems, which are certainly known to at least some of the media, have remained out of print, as far as I know.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 14, 2019, 10:53:23 pm
Severe family problems?

I havent heard the true reason why.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on May 14, 2019, 11:00:33 pm
Severe family problems?

I havent heard the true reason why.

Why is it any of your business?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 14, 2019, 11:01:24 pm
Doing some investigative work it definitely looks like marital issues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 15, 2019, 01:18:46 am
A message from the gold-digger we're assured is clearly at fault for all this:

Quote
Melisa Reidy, Russell’s ex-wife and the cooperating witness who shaped the 40-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy with the players’ union, shared her thoughts on the situation with an Instagram post:

“Continuing to project hatred won’t solve or help encourage anyone to be a better person,” Reidy wrote. “I see Addison taking hits from every direction (and) he continues to show up (and) face crowds that are disgusted with him. Which is completely understandable for y’all to feel that way…I felt that way for a long time.

“Has he really changed? I don’t know. Maybe it’s for his career, or because he has no other option but to suck it up, to be able to make a living to support all his children. (But) it also might just be someone who has been lost his entire life, trying to figure out who they are (and) attempt to become a less horsefeathers person.

“Only God knows Addison’s heart. Not gonna lie he’s not my favorite person but my heart & conscience can’t take much more of the brutal name calling & condemning. I’ve forgiven Addison for hurting me & I’ve let go of all the anger I once had towards him.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 15, 2019, 02:15:47 am
No comment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 15, 2019, 08:17:56 am
Zobrist’s wife filed for divorce.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 15, 2019, 08:21:28 am
That's sad.  To the world they were a great couple.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on May 15, 2019, 08:25:32 am

PARTY TIME!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 15, 2019, 04:57:45 pm
Jesse Rogers says it looks like Friday for Anthony Rizzo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on May 16, 2019, 12:03:29 am
Bummer. Would be nice to have him tomorrow against Castillo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on May 16, 2019, 02:30:28 pm
Caratini activated, Davis back to AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 16, 2019, 04:17:15 pm
Gonna be interesting to see who catches Darvish Tuesday Monday.  Probably Caratini.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 16, 2019, 04:26:51 pm
Darvish scheduled to match up on Monday vs. Arrieta. That should be interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 16, 2019, 04:29:10 pm
Darvish scheduled to match up on Monday vs. Arrieta. That should be interesting.

It's going to be cold, so you can expect Bad Yu to show up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 16, 2019, 04:43:57 pm
I would just as soon avoid that matchup TBH.  Home crowd is already going to boo every time Yu throws a ball - with Arrieta on the bump things could get particularly unpleasant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2019, 08:21:43 pm
Doing some investigative work it definitely looks like marital issues.

Are marital issues NOT family problems?

And either way, is it any business of yours, or mine, or anyone else here?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2019, 08:27:40 pm
If this were a baseball decision only it would be silly to give up on Addison Russell right now. He plays either 2nd or SS at an elite level, has shown he can be an impact bat and is only 25 years old. He certainly could be done growing into his skills, or he could be a few years from his peak and if given a chance could form an elite middle of the diamond with Contreras and Baez that no team in baseball could match. Couple that with Rizzo and Bryant at the corners and you have elite defense and offense that makes the sketchy OF production almost irrelevant. Of course not every young player adjusts once big league pitchers figure them out. Addison is now 3 years from his impact offensive season and has battled injury the last two seasons that have hampered his progress. If this were a baseball discussion there is no way the Cubs would be looking to move Russell. In fact, with Nico knocking at the door I could see the Cubs moving Baez to 3rd full time with Bryant in the OF full time when Nico is ready. There is room on the Cubs for a healthy, top of his game Addison Russell.

All of that being said I also understand those who simply want him gone. I do have a question, not an argument, but a sincere question for those who want him gone because of what he has done. If you knew going forward that Russell will never do what he did again, that the treatment the Cubs are demanding and apparently overseeing would help a young man better himself and become a better person if not a good one. If you knew that without the Cubs zero tolerance policy towards him going forward Addison would not be able to see the world through this different prism. Do you still want him gone if you know all of this? Do you not believe he can ever improve himself with the Cub's help? If he can improve do you believe his mistakes are just too great to be given that chance? It seems to me that Theo believes all of the above except that his sins are unforgivable. Is that a rational belief even if it is contrary to yours? Does Theo perhaps have more information than we do? He knows Addison, has consulted with teammates who know him better still, knows what steps are being taken to rehabilitate this young man into a better one.
I am inclined to give people second chances. I don't know why I feel that way. I usually have zero tolerance for women abusers and child abusers so this is a tough one for me personally. I have been impacted by abuse of all kinds in my own family so it would be easy to write Addison off as another abuser who was caught and should be punished. I was surprised by the Cub's approach to this, but I see what they are doing and hope it can work. If one man can turn this around with their help they will have done far more than winning a championship, they will have changed a life for the better. Maybe that is a naive hope to some here, maybe Addison crashes and burns and they release him in shame, but that is now up to him. He will either prove or disprove their trust in him. Either way I believe the attempt is worth it.

For some it is all about virtue signaling.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 18, 2019, 08:30:36 am
This is the dream that just woke me up...

Seattle gets: Addison Russell

Chicago gets: Dee Gordon, Roenis Elias

I’m sure there would be bit parts as well, but those are the major players...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 18, 2019, 08:41:56 am
Go back to sleep and get the rest of the deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 18, 2019, 05:33:47 pm
Cubs interested in Ken Giles, according to Kaplan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 19, 2019, 01:30:27 am
I saw a report about Giles attributed to Bruce Levine, who said Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez was on Levine’s show on the Score. According to Levine, Martinez said on the show that Cubs were interested in Giles.

Then, I listened to the Martinez segment on Levine’s show. Martinez said Cubs could use Giles and that “clubs” were inquiring about Giles, as Giles is most marketable Jays’ trade piece. Think that Levine confused hearing “Cubs” with “clubs.”

Maybe there are other sourced stories about Cubs and Giles, which might make sense, but I wouldn’t rely on the Buck Martinez interview.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 19, 2019, 08:27:00 am
I guess they wont be interested in Doolittle after last nights game. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 19, 2019, 10:00:30 am
Unless MLB rules on Joe Maddon's protest of Doolittle's delivery today, the Cubs will have to travel back to DC to play just one inning if the protest is upheld.  At least last year, the special one day trip was to play an entire game.  We all know how well that worked out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 19, 2019, 01:36:40 pm
Managers are permitted to protest a game when they allege the umpires have misapplied the rules. Major League Baseball will determine later whether the protested decision violated the rules, though the game will not be replayed unless it is also determined that the violation adversely affected the protesting team's chances of winning.

Buster Olney  @Buster_ESPN  39m39 minutes ago
Sources: The Cubs have not formally submitted their protest from last night's game yet, and it's possible that they won't file one. By rule, they have 24 hours in order to lodge an official protest, but given stance of MLB on Doolittle's delivery as legal, nothing really to gain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 19, 2019, 01:48:13 pm
Clearly  Maddon has Edwards issues.  He's defending his player and coach who developed something they thought would help him.  Then it was immediately taken away from him.  Maddon can justify his actions when he sees someone he interprets as doing the same damb thing. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 19, 2019, 02:03:10 pm
I'd guess Maddon's thoughts on Edwards are about the same any smart manager would have:
- Edwards is a guy who's been a dominant reliever for him at times. 
- He hasn't lost velo or movement, so it's possible he can return to his past form, IF he can regain what he's had in the past mentally and emotionally. 
- Some guys get it back and some don't, but it would probably NOT be wise to give up on him at this point (and watch him go to the Cardinals or Brewers and find it again).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 19, 2019, 02:50:29 pm
If only their was another example of a contender trading a talented reliever after some first half struggles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 20, 2019, 10:52:40 pm
Mooney just posted a story on the Marquee. Kenney is sayin it will immediately increase revenue for the Cubs. He also implied any profits and possibly revenue from other Ricketts holding around Wrigley could end up going back into the Cubs to increase payroll.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 21, 2019, 12:26:45 am
Endorse the checks directly to Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 21, 2019, 12:30:59 am
Mooney just posted a story on the Marquee. Kenney is sayin it will immediately increase revenue for the Cubs. He also implied any profits and possibly revenue from other Ricketts holding around Wrigley could end up going back into the Cubs to increase payroll.

The story says immediately “next year.” 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 21, 2019, 01:29:51 am
Collateral for a Kimbrel loan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 21, 2019, 02:17:30 am
Boy Kimbrel would change the game for us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 21, 2019, 06:54:11 am
Kimbrel, Morrow and Strop could really change the game for us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 21, 2019, 09:25:19 am
The story says immediately “next year.” 

Yes for next year, however, that is sooner than previously thought.  Epstein had said it would be a few years before revenues increase.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 21, 2019, 10:41:21 am
Has anyone heard any scouting reports on Colin Rea at Iowa this season?




Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 21, 2019, 11:29:22 am
Colin Rea pitched for Padres and Marlins in 2015 and 2016 - fringy stuff, weak starter (hi 4s ERA) in MLB - low 90s FB, just ok secondaries (including a splitter), lacking the pinpoint command necessary without at least somewhat electric stuff.

He missed 2017 and 2018 with TJ.  He's nearing 30, so not exactly a hot prospect at this point, but who knows: maybe he will be a "lightning-in-a-bottle" guy who can light in up in AAA and be a throw-in on a trade deadline deal with a team that needs an emergency starter.

Tyson Miller (AA) is the starter in the Cubs system most worth watching this year and he's likely at least a year - or MAJOR injury issues - away from pitching for the Cubs.  Some would say his stuff is fringy at the MLB level and he's been a high-ball pitcher; however, his command is plus (and, like his stuff, getting a bit better all the time) and he sure seems to know how to pitch AND compete!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 21, 2019, 01:01:41 pm
ben, I wonder there with Miller.  The Cubs are 1000% Nowacrat, and have never been hesitant to rush their prospects.  So **IF** Miller's command is plus and his actual stuff isn't badly below average, abd *IF* his self-confidence is great, then the combination of average stuff and plus control can be an average or better-than-average major-league pitcher. 

If we have an injury, that may be better than our alternatives in rotation?  And might be better than any of the IOwa alternatives? 

Or perhaps *IF* his control/stuff combo is enough to be an approximately average pitcher right now, it's possible that our bullpen doesn't actually have seven average-or-better guys out there right now.  In which case bringing Miller in as an average-stuff strike-thrower might be better than the alternatives.  (If you've got to choose between Maples and WEbster, he might-be-pretty-antiawful-and-maybe-even-fully-average Miller might get a look at some point?  As a reliever?  And maybe his fastball would play up a bit further in short relief, too, and he'd be not-too-bad 93-95 velocity in that role?   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 21, 2019, 01:08:59 pm
Clifton might be an interesting bullpen alternative.  His slider is supposed to be improved this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on May 21, 2019, 02:23:56 pm
Dave23 keeps posting about the trouble Almora has hitting right handed pitching (with his tongue firmly in his cheek), so out of curiosity I checked to see how he is doing this year.

To my surprise, he's doing better against RH pitching than LH pitching, with more ABs against RH pitching:
We are probably all aware of how badly he started the season, but I (at least) did not realize how well he's done in the last month. In the last 28 days, Almora has 82 PA, .333 BA, .350 OBA, .577 SLG, .927 OPS, with 7 doubles and 4 HR.

He seems to be a streaky hitter, and this is obviously a small sample size, but I was pleasantly surprised by it.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 21, 2019, 02:52:29 pm
His improvement started when he decreased his leg kick in addition to other changes he made in the off season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 21, 2019, 03:05:36 pm
Craig, there are several potential reasons the Cubs aren't interested in advancing Tyson Miller, including that they:

* don't feel he's completed his minor-league development plan (e.g. needs to continue to refine a pitch or pitching lower in the zone or improve in one or more other areas) OR
* they don't want to have to put him on the 40-man roster OR
* they want him to succeed when he does move up and they feel more time in AA will help ensure that OR
* they might want to use him in a potential trade and they want him to dominate vs getting exposed OR
* another good reason they may have.  It's never easy moving up and succeeding as a MLB starter OR as a reliever!

I don't think it's likely the Cubs see Miller as the next MLB pitching phenom, but I'm sure they're very glad to have him and want to see him help the big club when he's ready (whether on the mound or in a trade).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 21, 2019, 03:30:21 pm
Craig, I should have said "AND/OR" relative to the potential reasons Cubs prefer that Tyson Miller is pitching in AA.

There's likely a combination of factors at play and I've just listed a few of the many possibilities. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on May 21, 2019, 03:49:37 pm
His improvement started when he decreased his leg kick in addition to other changes he made in the off season.

Hopefully the improvements are real and stick, because his defensive floor in CF is high enough that it won't take much hitting production for him to be an above-average OF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 21, 2019, 04:01:24 pm
Hopefully the improvements are real and stick, because his defensive floor in CF is high enough that it won't take much hitting production for him to be an above-average OF.

Currently he has a wRC+ of 94.  In 140 PA that is worth 0.6 fWAR.  Prorated over 600 PA he'd be worth 2.6 fWAR.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 21, 2019, 04:24:23 pm
Almora does better under rWAR. There, he projects to 3.4 rWAR at 600 PA. That is a well-above average regular.

Will be interesting to see how his offense develops as the season progresses. We have seen him go up and then down before. But, if he turned into a player knocking on 4.0 WAR performance, that would be a big deal for the Cubs, obviously. A key for him is extra-base pop. Can he do that with some consistency?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 21, 2019, 05:00:41 pm
I was wondering about Rea this season...a couple of seasons post-op. He’s putting up nice numbers at Iowa, and I’ve heard reports of low 90s, but not much else.

He was pretty highly regarded when he was traded to Miami, and then subsequently returned to the Padres as damaged goods after his UCL(?) blew out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 21, 2019, 07:55:06 pm
Javy is apparently going to have an MRI done on his heel...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 22, 2019, 09:06:46 am
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26788792/why-pecota-projections-were-wrong-cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 22, 2019, 09:41:37 am
Thanks Robb...that's a GREAT article.  My favorite excerpt: "Perhaps this is where PECOTA comes up short, as it can't take into account the brains and fortitude age brings you." 

Said differently, Theo Epstein has said the key difference between his org's work now and 10 years ago isn't more emphasis on analytics, it's more emphasis on the HUMAN side.  Basically, at least so far this season, Theo et al are well ahead of the computers as they've focused on acquiring starting pitchers who they believe have "brains and fortitude" (e.g. Lester, Hamels, Hendricks, Quintana, maybe even Darvish), despite what PECOTA might say and the trend of most all other front-offices.  So far this season - and in recent ones - our leaders have been right! 

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 22, 2019, 09:43:53 am
What a GREAT win last night! 

Despite Javy's heroics, seems like this one should go down as the "Kris Bryant baserunning game!"

We are SO fortunate to have multi-dimensional guys like Bryant and Javy, who can win games SO many ways!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 22, 2019, 10:05:51 am
Good teams can compensate when some aspects of their game are not clicking.  It's fun when alert baserunning makes the difference.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 22, 2019, 10:23:01 am
Bryant is just showing off for the Phillies so he can get that big FA contract and join his buddy Bryce.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 22, 2019, 02:01:58 pm
Quote
Bryant is just showing off for the Phillies so he can get that big FA contract and join his buddy Bryce.

I can't wait until KB names his dog Citizen Bank.  "Come here CB!  Come here boy."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 22, 2019, 02:03:27 pm
Are they going to suspend Schwarber for flashing the white power sign after his triple the other night?  Or was he give the dugout the OK sign?  Or was he playing the circle game?

Inquiring minds want to know.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 22, 2019, 03:00:39 pm
Tommy Birch  @TommyBirch  2m2 minutes ago
Looks like the #Cubs have promoted Rowan Wick. He’s at Wrigley Field now, according to his Instagram.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 22, 2019, 03:11:11 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  5m5 minutes ago
Xavier Cedeno going on 10-day IL due to left wrist swelling, Rowan Wick selected from Triple-A Iowa. Wick 2.84 ERA in 13 games. 25 K's in 19 innings
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 22, 2019, 03:25:52 pm
Wick was a position player early in his career. Hit with power in short-season ball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 22, 2019, 03:34:13 pm
Converted catcher Rowan Wick making a name for himself as a pitcher for the Iowa Cubs

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2019/04/30/rowan-wick-iowa-cubs-chicago-cubs-minor-league-baseball-st-louis-cardinals-san-diego-padres/3622767002/

November 20, 2018   San Diego Padres traded RHP Rowan Wick to Chicago Cubs for 3B Jason Vosler.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t451&player_id=592858#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 22, 2019, 03:38:40 pm
Shepherd, the guy we got on waivers the other day, has been lost on waivers to Baltimore.   It hurts not to be wanted.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 22, 2019, 03:59:50 pm
Excited to see what Wick can do. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 22, 2019, 04:08:44 pm
In the movies he kicks ass.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 22, 2019, 04:11:12 pm
Arizona Phil is suggesting that the Cubs might be interested in Toronto closer Ken Giles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 22, 2019, 04:11:56 pm
To get Giles, costs players.  Kimbrel costs money.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2019, 04:28:10 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  5m5 minutes ago
Xavier Cedeno going on 10-day IL due to left wrist swelling, Rowan Wick selected from Triple-A Iowa. Wick 2.84 ERA in 13 games. 25 K's in 19 innings

Keep rotating the retread tires.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 22, 2019, 04:51:49 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  8m8 minutes ago
Strop felt great after bullpen session, scheduled for one more this weekend, potential short rehab assignment looming
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 22, 2019, 05:34:53 pm
I don't care about his ERA or k's. How many guys has Wick walked?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 22, 2019, 09:11:33 pm
I wonder what the cost on Giles would be. The last time he was under pressure for a contending team it didn’t go well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 22, 2019, 09:52:22 pm
I don't care about his ERA or k's. How many guys has Wick walked?

16 innings - 5 walks
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on May 23, 2019, 05:16:52 am
Zambrano is available
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on May 24, 2019, 05:43:27 am
Wick has more kills than walks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on May 24, 2019, 08:19:33 am
It would behoove the Cubs to make hay this weekend against the Reds. Their upcoming schedule is pretty brutal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 24, 2019, 10:03:31 am
Bruce Miles  @BruceMiles2112  5m5 minutes ago
#Cubs recall pitcher James Norwood from Iowa and option Rowan Wick
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 24, 2019, 10:20:08 am
Rowan, we hardly knew ye.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 24, 2019, 11:49:20 am
I thought Wick looked pretty good, actually.  Fastball was fast and moved some, at least yesterday when he was probably all adrenalined to the max.  Seemed wild enough that even if hitter guessed fastball, he wouldn't know which quadrant it might move into, or how it was going to run or move.  Seemed controlled enough that he threw mostly strikes, and those that weren't were right off the edge.  (I thought the batter took one and the ump called a ball that was really close, one that might almost be called a strike and where hitters might often chase....)  He had kind of a short quick arm delivery, kind of choppy.  MIght be hard to have good control consistently, but might also be a little bit deceptive for hitters? 

Wasn't scared to throw his fastball, which I like.  Maybe he doesn't have much else, threw a couple of breaking balls, those didn't look close to the strike zone and guys didn't chase.  I'd guess in minors, with two strikes via fastballs, he probably gets some K's on chase breaking pitches that aren't anywhere close, kinda like Jason's big chase K in the 9th yesterday. 

Anyway, based on that one inning, I hope Wick is back and gets some more opportunities. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 24, 2019, 11:58:42 am
On Wick

Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith
@cubprospects
Fifth AB (Rodriguez): FB for strike one and then four straight curveballs. Two for balls, one for a called strike, a well-placed one for a whiff.

Overall: bad luck and no slider led to a tough inning, but Wick threw strikes. Velo was there.

Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
Replying to @cubprospects
Great call, I just Tweeted the same thing. Velo was great, but didn't change speeds or eye level or anything else.

Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith
@cubprospects
He’s got two different breaking options for that spot.

Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
And he just said yesterday that a big part of his success the last few weeks in Iowa was because he was locating all 3 pitches for strikes. But threw fastball on 12 of his first 14 pitches

Me: He may have just not had a feel for his breaking pitches yesterday.  I think he'll be back up at some point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 24, 2019, 09:10:00 pm
Cubs have optioned Mark Zagunis to Iowa.

No corresponding move official yet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 24, 2019, 10:55:49 pm
Zobrist?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 25, 2019, 11:32:45 pm
Hooray, Hooray!
Help's on the Way
Fernando Rodney was
DFAed today!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 25, 2019, 11:37:54 pm
Kaplan in his infinite genius has already suggested that move.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 26, 2019, 12:00:42 am
Yeah, but did he rhyme it?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 26, 2019, 02:25:20 am
Someone else on Twitter threw his name out too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 26, 2019, 09:17:12 am
For the prorated minimum salary if they saw something off in his delivery, what would it hurt. De La Rosa was a useful deliver down the stretch last year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on May 26, 2019, 06:16:46 pm
A few days ago, we had Cole (first name) versus Cole (first name).

Tomorrow, we have Cole (first name) versus Cole (last name).

What in the world is going on?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 26, 2019, 07:50:56 pm
Sounds like Collins is heading back to Iowa and might be replaced by Adduci according to Rogers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 26, 2019, 07:54:17 pm
Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Update: Kris Bryant was cleared to fly with the Cubs to Houston.
7:12 PM · May 26, 2019 ·
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 26, 2019, 08:17:51 pm
Sounds like Collins is heading back to Iowa and might be replaced by Adduci according to Rogers.

Adduci is an interesting story.

His dad (also Jim Adduci) played 11 seasons in minors and only 70 games in majors.

Adduci has played 14 seasons in the minors (going back to 2004) and 4200 PAs in minors—-and about 140 games in majors. Has played 7 seasons in Cubs organization but no major league appearances with Cubs.

So, good for him if he’s coming up.

Adduci would bring 40 man back up to 40. Zobrist went on restricted list May 8, so will be three weeks absence this coming Wednesday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 27, 2019, 09:46:14 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  2m2 minutes ago
Tim Collins optioned, Jim Adduci selected from Triple-A Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on May 28, 2019, 09:39:36 am
I think it's important for Bryant to come back strong after this injury.  He has not always been able to do so in the past.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 28, 2019, 11:52:43 pm
I saw this coming 100 miles away...

Cubs manager Joe Maddon said Tuesday that he's preparing for the possibility that Ben Zobrist (personal) might not return this season.
"I have to think that way, absolutely," Maddon told reporters ahead of Tuesday night's game against the Astros. "I hope that’s not the case. But he’s at the point now where if he chose to come back, it’s going to take him a while to get back up to speed, too. We have to mentally be prepared that we will not have him." It has been three weeks since Zobrist left the team to deal with a personal family issue, later revealed to be ongoing divorce proceedings from his wife Julianna. The 38-year-old utilityman is an impending free agent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 28, 2019, 11:53:22 pm
We've got money now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 29, 2019, 09:26:48 am
Assuming he doesn't come back, and assuming that the Cubs do not pay him, that means we have about 8 million dollars for THIS season.

Anyone out there that can help us, that will sign for 8 million for 2019?  If so, we should certainly sign him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 29, 2019, 10:29:06 am
Rogers said the Cubs aren't paying him.  The have already banked $1,410,000.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 29, 2019, 10:33:05 am
Rogers said the Cubs aren't paying him.  The have already banked $1,410,000.

Thanks, I'd very much wondered about that, whether they might not still be paying him anyway. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 29, 2019, 04:39:47 pm
Rogers said the Cubs aren't paying him.  The have already banked $1,410,000.

Wittenmyer did a story yesterday on Zobrist and didn't address the payment issue.  Do you have a link to the Rogers statement?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 29, 2019, 08:25:36 pm
It was on Twitter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 29, 2019, 09:22:58 pm
It was on Twitter.

With the now-extended absence, seems unlikely that Cubs would be paying Zobrist for this long—-and beyond. So, makes sense that he would not be paid.

But, can’t find the Rogers reference and don’t believe that Sharma, Mooney, Bastian, Wittenmyer, or any of the national guys have reported this.

So, would be helpful to see something specific given the silence elsewhere.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 29, 2019, 10:13:05 pm
Not my fault your Twitter skills are lacking.

Sharbel Dekelaita
@SDekelaita
@ESPNChiCubs
 do we know if cubs are paying Ben during this time

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
·
May 26
Replying to
@SDekelaita
They are not
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 29, 2019, 10:26:04 pm
OK. Thanks. Didn’t see the Q and A.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 29, 2019, 10:27:21 pm
Even assuming the Cubs were saving all of Zobrist's salary, I very much doubt they're considering Kimbrel.  But if they are, I sure wouldn't wait until after the draft - the clock is ticking.  He'll need a month to get up to speed anyway, and if you jump in now you're avoiding a bidding war.  It's not like the Cubs draft track record is so stellar than losing a pick in the 60's should be a deal breaker.

Probably moot - seems very likely clubs are under orders not to sign either Kimbrel or Keuchel until after the draft, in the name of "solidarity".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 29, 2019, 10:40:22 pm
If they want either guy, they need to strike this week before having to compete with a dozen other clubs waiting for the draft first.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 29, 2019, 10:49:50 pm
Cishek, Strop, Kintzler, Morrow all free agents after 2019.

So, if there’s found-money available for Kimbrel because of Zobrist, seems like it would be prudent to start addressing 2020 bullpen—-and bolster for a WS run, right now.

Not sure why Kimbrel would sign before Monday—when he figures to have more suitors.

And, to Deeg’s point, makes little sense for MLB to discourage a pre-draft Kimbrel signing now. If he signs, MLB tells the Union: “you see, the draft compensation didn’t hinder a deal, what’s the problem?”

In any case, seems like conventional wisdom is Kimbrel to Phillies or Braves.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 29, 2019, 10:53:24 pm
I've been thinking along similar lines.  The bullpen/closer situation doesn't look any better next year.  Having someone like Kimbrel, unless he's damaged goods, would kill two birds with one stone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 30, 2019, 12:23:00 am
There's no possible way the owners would be trying to seriously float that argument at this point.  They're corrupt and pretty brazen, but they're not so stupid as to think anyone would be buying a fantasy like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 30, 2019, 09:52:19 am
Rosenthal last blurb on Kimbrel is that it would be an upset if he gets 3/$39-59 million he has looking for in April.  Add him an ease him back into the closer role and you could be looking at Kimbrel, Marrow, Strop, Cishek, Kintzler in the playoffs and that will play nicely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 30, 2019, 09:59:01 am
I can feel the return of Marrow in my bones.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on May 30, 2019, 10:10:01 am
BIG win last night!  Great job by Hendricks!

Astros manager AJ Hinch was effusive in his praise of Hendricks, saying, “He’s just really good. He won [an ERA title, in 2016] for a reason. His ability to change speeds is elite, his execution is up there with as good as we’ve seen this year, being able to throw the ball nearly exactly where he wants to.

“I haven’t seen if he made any mistakes, but there weren’t many of them. Watching by the contact and disruption of timing, he’s just really good. We didn’t have very many guys who had at-bats against him.

You kind of have to pick fastball, changeup, and then he throws a couple of slow breaking balls. He just never, never gives in. His execution on the corners, off the corners, inside, up, kind of picture-perfect art of pitching by him.”

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 30, 2019, 10:57:00 am
I can feel the return of Marrow in my bones.

The problem is, Marrow can also feel it in his bones.  Which is why he hasn't been pitching.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 30, 2019, 11:12:46 am
The problem is, Marrow can also feel it in his bones.  Which is why he hasn't been pitching.
Well, maybe he'll feel better to Morrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on May 30, 2019, 12:10:14 pm
I started on a journey about a year ago to a little town called Morrow in the State of Ohio.
I've never been much of a traveler, and I really didn't know that Morrow was the hardest place I'd ever try to go.

So I went down to the station for my ticket and applied for tips regarding Morrow not expecting to beguiled.
Said I, "My friend, I'd like to go to Morrow and return no later than tomorrow for I haven't time to burn."

Said he to me, "Now let me see if I have heard you right. You'd like to go to Morrow and return tomorrow night.
You should have gone to Morrow yesterday and back today for the train that goes to Morrow is a mile upon its way.

If you had gone to Morrow yesterday now don't you see, you could have gone to Morrow and returned today at three
For the train today to Morrow, if the schedule is right, today it goes to Morrow and returns tomorrow night."

Said I, "My friend, it seems to me you're talking through your hat. There is a town named Morrow on the line now tell me that."
"There is," said he, "but take me a quiet little tip. To go from here to Morrow is a fourteen hour trip.

The train today to Morrow leaves today at eight thirty-five. At half-past ten to Morrow is the time it should arrive.
So if from here to Morrow is a fourteen hour jump, can you go today to Morrow and get back today, you chump?"

Said I, "I'd like to go to Morrow so can I go today and get to Morrow by tonight if there is no delay?"
"Well, well," said he to me, "and I've got no more to say. Can't get anywhere tomorrow and get back again today."

Said I, "I guess you know it all but kindly let me say, how can I get to Morrow if I leave this town today?"
Said he, "You cannot go to Morrow any more today 'cause the train that goes to Morrow is a mile upon its way."

I was so disappointed. I was mad enough to swear. The train had gone to Morrow and had left me standing there.
That man was right in telling me that I was a-howling jay. I could not go to Morrow so I guess in town I'll stay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on May 30, 2019, 12:15:13 pm
Morrow is done and will never wear a Cubs uniform again...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 30, 2019, 12:27:59 pm
CarGo is now a Cub...

Quote
CARLOS GONZALEZ

OF, CHICAGO CUBS

Cubs signed Carlos Gonzalez to a minor league contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 30, 2019, 12:29:25 pm
I guess it would be asking a lot to have any hopes of CarGo going on a 2008 Jim Edmonds type of run for us, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 30, 2019, 12:36:06 pm
Useful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 30, 2019, 01:06:45 pm
I guess it would be asking a lot to have any hopes of CarGo going on a 2008 Jim Edmonds type of run for us, right?

Edmonds had a wRC+ of 40 with the Padres and a wRC+ of 90 the year before with Cardinals.  CarGo was wRC+ of 49 with Indians and 96 last year with the Rockies, so I think we should be expecting an even better run.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on May 30, 2019, 01:22:14 pm
Heh heh.  Hasn't been above average for three years, but wasn't far below average the last two, as a hitter.  If he could return to almost-average, that would be better than Zagunis, I guess? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 30, 2019, 02:01:11 pm
It's now official

APNewsBreak: Cubs-Cards set for London on June 13-14 in 2020

https://apnews.com/9be16c2accdd4b9c9b312206f4ac9add?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP_Sports&utm_source=Twitter







(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1134010046612955139/dFJr_sfS?format=jpg&name=600x314:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 30, 2019, 02:04:20 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1134010046612955139/dFJr_sfS?format=jpg&name=600x314)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 30, 2019, 02:25:51 pm
It's now official

APNewsBreak: Cubs-Cards set for London on June 13-14 in 2020

https://apnews.com/9be16c2accdd4b9c9b312206f4ac9add?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP_Sports&utm_source=Twitter







(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1134010046612955139/dFJr_sfS?format=jpg&name=600x314:small)

yeah, don't send the Rays vs Mariners and get a larger gate then they would at home, let's send two teams who'd draw big at home.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 30, 2019, 03:44:14 pm
Well, one team, anyway...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 30, 2019, 10:46:16 pm
Linked below—interesting interview on The Score with Hoyer.

Says we should not connect Zobrist money with bullpen acquisitions. Indeed, twice didn’t respond to questions about whether Cubs are paying Zobrist or not. Not sure why the reticence on the subject.

Asked an interesting question about drop since 2016 in Cubs Defensive Runs Saved. Is very aware of this but seems like [to me] Cubs have no clue why overall club defense is underperforming, aside from massive 2016 being something of an outlier. Hoyer seemed concerned why current defensuve metrics not matching the defensive talent on the club.

https://670thescore.radio.com/media/audio-channel/jed-hoyer-cubs-albert-almora-jr

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 30, 2019, 10:54:54 pm
Quote
Says we should not connect Zobrist money with bullpen acquisitions.

That's utterly ridiculous if that's true.  Hopefully this is more about management keeping their cards held close to the vest, but if they're going to pocket the Zobrist money instead of using it for a playoff push, shame on them. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 30, 2019, 11:02:45 pm
Iowa Cubs broadcaster:

Alex Cohen
@voiceofcohen
Another smooth 1-2-3 inning for RHP Pedro Strop in a MLB Rehab with the
@IowaCubs
. First-pitch flyout, strikeout (swinging on a nasty slider), groundout. 7 pitches, 6 strikes.

Combined line in two rehab appearances: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 K, 0 BB. 13 pitches, 12 strikes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 30, 2019, 11:05:37 pm
Hoyer was very clear that Cubs will bolster bullpen—but not connected to Zobrist. Sidestepped questions, for whatever reason, whether Cubs paying Zobrist.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2019, 09:52:46 am
That's utterly ridiculous if that's true.  Hopefully this is more about management keeping their cards held close to the vest, but if they're going to pocket the Zobrist money instead of using it for a playoff push, shame on them. 

It *might* be viewed in poor taste to go onto the radio and say sure the WS MVP is having his world crash around him and he can't play, but the bright side for us is we aren't paying him and we can use that money to sign Kimbrell if he just stays away from the team long enough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 31, 2019, 10:27:41 am
I've wondered if divulging that information might be a HIPAA violation of some kind.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2019, 10:47:31 am
HIPPA wouldn't have anything to do with his salary.  He he was getting psychiatric treatment or other medical treatments HIPPA could cover that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 31, 2019, 10:57:32 am
Is it HIPA, HIPPA, or HIPAA?  I've seen it all 3 ways.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2019, 11:20:39 am
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.  HIPAA, if you want to be correct. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on May 31, 2019, 11:56:10 am
It *might* be viewed in poor taste to go onto the radio and say sure the WS MVP is having his world crash around him and he can't play, but the bright side for us is we aren't paying him and we can use that money to sign Kimbrell if he just stays away from the team long enough.

Yeah that's a valid point, and I might have overreacted.  I'm sure revealing whether or not paying they're Zobrist isn't something they could talk about publicly anyway.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on May 31, 2019, 12:36:39 pm
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.  HIPAA, if you want to be correct. 
Ah, okay.  That's what I put, but you said HIPPA and that confused me.  I'm sure it confused JR too, since, he's you know...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2019, 12:48:02 pm
Typing too quickly and not proof reading..........
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on May 31, 2019, 01:05:08 pm
Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports that the Cubs, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Diamondbacks and Yankees had scouts watching Alex Colome during the White Sox' series versus the Royals this week.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on May 31, 2019, 03:49:36 pm
I thought about Colome as a potential trade target the other day, but the thought of another trade with the White Sox scared me to death, so I let it go...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 31, 2019, 06:27:49 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian

2h
Injury updates:

1. Barnette to AAA Sat, restarting rehab clock
2. Morrow still in flat-ground catch mode
3. Cubs still discussing next step for Strop
4. Webster & Cedeno rehabbing in AZ
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on May 31, 2019, 07:13:06 pm
I thought about Colome as a potential trade target the other day, but the thought of another trade with the White Sox scared me to death, so I let it go...

Amaya and Hoerner for Colome?  That would be about the equivalent deal to the last one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on May 31, 2019, 07:43:24 pm
The closst Cubs trade history comp to Colome (and Shane Greene) is the Justin Wilson deal, who was Tigers closer at the time, having a good season, and had one additional season of control.

Cubs gave up a system-redundant 3B and a young SS prospect who scouts said (correctly) would not stay at SS.

Ademan, a legit SS, is a better prospect than the latter and Amaya, as a catcher, is more valuable than the former.

Don’t see Cubs giving up either guy for Colome or Greene. Don’t see Cubs giving up Hoerner for anybody actually available on the trade market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 01, 2019, 07:35:48 am
Rosenthal theorizes that the Zobrist situation might have changed the Cubs' thinking on Kimbrel, but it could be pure speculation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 01, 2019, 08:13:20 am
attached to Deeg's report:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2838988-craig-kimbrel-rumors-cubs-showing-interest-in-closer-doing-background-work
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 01, 2019, 08:25:42 am
Here is a link to the Rosenthal article on the Cubs and Kimbrel.

https://theathletic.com/1005863/2019/06/01/rosenthal-an-unexpected-event-might-be-spurring-the-cubs-interest-in-craig-kimbrel/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 01, 2019, 09:09:14 am
Kimbrel by far makes the most sense for Cubs and with Strop coming back they can ease him back into high leverage situations.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 01, 2019, 09:52:07 am
3 years $33 million out to be in neighborhood.  I have serious skepticism the Cubs would go anywhere near that, but unless you believe Kimbrel's 2nd half was the start of a precipitous decline it seems like a pretty fair deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on June 01, 2019, 10:42:22 am
I thought about Colome as a potential trade target the other day, but the thought of another trade with the White Sox scared me to death, so I let it go...

Send you colome for Amaya
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 01, 2019, 11:53:31 am
Maybe we can wait until a week or two after the draft, and then trade our Garland and Noel for him?

And yes, I know, he’s miles better than Karchner ever dreamed of being...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 01, 2019, 12:09:44 pm
Dave, bringing back the memories! 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 02, 2019, 02:23:18 pm
So are we about to add Alzolay and Kimbrel to our bullpen?

Tonight at 12 is when draft pick compensation goes away so how long will it take for Kimbrel to sign?

I think we'll get him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 03, 2019, 08:28:08 am
Rumor floating around that Cargo is getting called up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 03, 2019, 12:01:54 pm
He did.

Batting 5th today and in RF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 03, 2019, 04:20:16 pm
This paragraph in today's story about Gonzalez confuses me:

González talked a bit about what it was like to beat the Cubs in the 2018 NL Wild Card Game. He noted that the Cubs, amidst a tough stretch, looked defeated at times throughout the game. “I noticed last year that there was something about the team that wasn’t the same,” he said. “We took advantage of that. I think it was a really good game. We ended up winning the game and I think a lot of that has to do with how it seemed like they were a little down because they struggled at the end of the year.”

We didn't play the Rockies in 2018 Wild Card.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 03, 2019, 04:32:47 pm
This paragraph in today's story about Gonzalez confuses me:

González talked a bit about what it was like to beat the Cubs in the 2018 NL Wild Card Game. He noted that the Cubs, amidst a tough stretch, looked defeated at times throughout the game. “I noticed last year that there was something about the team that wasn’t the same,” he said. “We took advantage of that. I think it was a really good game. We ended up winning the game and I think a lot of that has to do with how it seemed like they were a little down because they struggled at the end of the year.”

We didn't play the Rockies in 2018 Wild Card.

We didn't?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 03, 2019, 04:38:34 pm
ahhhhh.   I was thinking it was Milwaukee.   That was a first place tie breaker.  Duh.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 03, 2019, 11:16:31 pm
Man, they didn't just bring Gonzalez up and send Aducci down, they DFA'ed him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 03, 2019, 11:18:47 pm
Needed a 40 man spot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 03, 2019, 11:27:27 pm
If we sign somebody like Kimbrel and Zobrist returns, there's going to be a crunch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 03, 2019, 11:29:44 pm
Plenty of pitchers that can be removed from the 40 man.

My plan for the pen
1) Sign Kimbrel
2) Trade Montgomery to a team that could use a cheap controlled starter for a lefty reliever that can strike people out.

Kimbrel, Strop, Cishek, Kintzler+/- Chatwood, Morrow, Edwards, Alzolay, Maples, Mekkes
 
That is strong from the right side

Lefties- Ryan (just used against lefties) +/- Hultzmen, Steele, Trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 04, 2019, 09:33:00 pm
Looks like Contreras is going to catch Yu tomorrow.  Would be nice if that goes well, for all sorts of reasons.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 09:25:43 am
Sharma/Mooney the Cubs Athletic podcast

-Zobrist isn’t getting paid
-They have enough money to do Kimbrel + other moves
-Mooney said they usually keep $5-10 million in reserve for the deadline, he thinks it was on the lower end.
-Not the favorites for Kimbrel, but definitely in.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 11:24:16 am
Ken Rosenthal

Verified account
 
@Ken_Rosenthal
 33s34 seconds ago
More
#Cubs pushing hard for Kimbrel, sources tell The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 05, 2019, 11:26:35 am
FWIW.

Ken Rosenthal[size=78%
@Ken_Rosenthal

#Cubs pushing hard for Kimbrel, sources tell The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on June 05, 2019, 11:32:36 am
Yes please.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 12:48:31 pm
I'm kinda mixed on Kimbrel, actually. 

Pro:  We're all Nowacrats now, past Kimbrel has been really good, and we're in the pennant race.  *IF* you got classic-Kimbrel for this year and beyond, he could help you win some get-into-the-playoffs chases.  Plus his name is Craig! :):)  So a lot of reasons to want him now. 

Con:  He's been wild in recent years.  I wonder how quickly he'd be able to show up and pitch effectively this year?  Or if he'll be kinda Maples for a while, and might not actually help that much this year?  2nd, he's 31.  How good will he be for the ensuing 3 years after this, assuming to get him for this year and next you've got to commit for another year or two beyond that?  Third, the Cubs have been in their present $$ pinch based on Nowacrat overpay investments like Darvish and Heyward in the past.  Think there's a risk that they'll overpay on Kimbrel now; that he'll underperform his contract like Darvish and Heyward; and they'll remain financially pinched going forward as a result.  Fourth, he's a FA and a pitcher:  Are the Cubs very good at evaluating either? 

So, I think there's good reasons to worry that **IF** they sign him, it will turn into yet another regrettable FA big-ticket gobbling up the payroll. 

But yeah, maybe nothing ventured nothing gained.  Glad it's not me needing to make decisions like that!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on June 05, 2019, 01:16:56 pm
(http://Fourth, he's a FA and a pitcher:  Are the Cubs very good at evaluating either?)

I give you Lester as an example.  Hammels this last offseason.  Lackey wasn't too bad a pick up either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 01:53:19 pm
The Braves are apparently out on Kimbrel now too.  That's good news for the Cubs signing him.  I was thinking he was almost a shoo-in for the Braves a couple of weeks ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 01:53:58 pm
Sounds like this might be something that actually happens.  It's basically us and the Twins that have the most smoke going when it comes to Kimbrel right now, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 01:56:15 pm
Maybe the Phillies.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 02:05:30 pm
We're looking good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on June 05, 2019, 02:07:41 pm
Kimbrel makes *so* much sense for the Cubs. Bullpen is far and away our weakest link over the course of the full season/playoffs, and Morrow's return looks *very* iffy. Cubs have extra money with Zo out and expiring contracts this winter.

Make it happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 02:10:55 pm
Maybe the Phillies.

Yeah, but do they really need him?  Neris is doing a good job closing for them, although I guess their setup situation hasn't been particularly great. 

It seems like the Cubs need someone like him a lot more than the Phillies anyway. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 02:19:56 pm
Kimbrel would be a game changer for us.

Dont even talk about what Alzolay might be too.

Then what if we do get Morrow back?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 03:26:19 pm
Insider @jonmorosi told @McNeil_Parkins he believes the #Cubs are the front runners for Craig Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on June 05, 2019, 03:33:20 pm
Morrow will never wear another Cubs uniform again, guys...he's done and the Cubs don't want him back unless he's 100 percent-hell, he can't even throw from the mound
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 04:56:12 pm
Sounds like this might be something that actually happens.  It's basically us and the Twins that have the most smoke going when it comes to Kimbrel right now, right?

Twins have a great team this year.  Every FA needs to balance winning versus money, for sure.  But man, jumping on board that Twins team, 21 games over .500, with a 10.5-game lead already in their division, they're a lock to win that division and be in this year's playoffs.  And they have a lot of young talent that's not going away.  Kimbrel might be better off to choose the Twins, if they can make a competitive offer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 05:57:03 pm
Theo Epstein wouldn't get into specifics about Craig Kimbrel, but he also didn't deny that the Cubs are trying to sign the All-Star closer: "We never talk about that type of stuff. I've been open, though, about the fact that we'll be aggressive this year in the ‘pen."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 06:32:50 pm
On Cubs pregame at 6:30 on @670thescore, you’ll hear Peter Gammons talk about Craig Kimbrel and the Cubs; it sure sounds like he expects it to happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 06:34:52 pm
Trump re-election bash headed for Wrigley:

https://t.co/H3JaOfmwy3

Unfortunately, ownership has made the distinction of where to post this meaningless.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on June 05, 2019, 06:45:14 pm
What kind of **** **** would go to that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 05, 2019, 06:45:50 pm
Gorgeous George wrestled in Wrigley Field in the 1950s.

Same kind of thing. Not baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on June 05, 2019, 07:09:58 pm
You guys do remember that half the voters in the country voted for him, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on June 05, 2019, 07:10:08 pm
Javy doing it all, including helping The Professor with pitch selection. https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-schwarber-s-homer-lifts-cubs-over-rockies


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 07:20:05 pm
I didnt vote so I dont have a dog in it but you wont find many people around here that aren't for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 07:34:57 pm
BREAKING: #Cubs in agreement with free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 07:35:20 pm
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM!!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 05, 2019, 07:45:46 pm
I’m shocked, but glad.

Still would be nice to add a late inning LHP too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 07:46:41 pm
The #Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel, using money saved in Ben Zobrist’s leave of absence, as @Ken_Rosenthal 1st reported.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 07:51:41 pm
Kimbrel!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 07:54:18 pm
Nice job by management and ownership to step up and get a deal done. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 07:55:48 pm
WOWZER

Day made.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:05:21 pm
Multi-year deal for Kimbrel with #Cubs, source tells The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:05:59 pm
Maddon said a couple days ago hypothetically it would probably be a minimum of 3wks before Kimbrel would be ready for action...when I asked Theo about it this evening he said he didn't want to speculate. #Cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:08:10 pm
Amazing fact about Craig Kimbrel, who will soon be a @Cub, per @Ken_Rosenthal - he has more career saves than hits allowed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:08:40 pm
The Cubs have the NL's lowest strikeout rate in the 9th inning this season (19.9%).

Among pitchers to face at least 2000 batters, Craig Kimbrel has the highest strikeout rate in MLB history (41.6%).

#EverybodyIn
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 08:13:22 pm
Gotta recall Davis and have the beardiest battery since Grover Cleveland Alexander's House of David team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:13:53 pm
I bet Br's hurt that his Braves didnt sign Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 05, 2019, 08:14:18 pm
Below is link for all-time career pitching leaders in ERA+ for Adjusted ERA.

Mariano Rivera is highest of all-time for qualified pitchers at 205.

Kimbrel is higher at 212.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 08:23:09 pm
The dice roll with CK is obviously whether you get the guy from pre 2018 All-Star break or the guy from after.  His velocity was fine - it was command (always the concern) that tanked.  That it tanked so badly is certainly a worry.

I have no idea what the career record for BAA is, but at .154 Kimbrel would have to be pretty close to it.  If somehow you get the vintage guy (more likely next year than this) obviously a game-changer.

Sad as it is, the Cubs really benefitted from Zobrist's personal issues.  Be a shame if this is how he goes out, though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:25:45 pm
3/45 for Kimbrel.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 08:34:16 pm
3/$45 million is a steal
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 05, 2019, 08:35:52 pm
Heyman reporting 3/43.

Rosenthat reported “close to” 3/45.

So, on same page.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on June 05, 2019, 08:36:00 pm
It's more like 2.5/$45... but I have no problem with the price.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 05, 2019, 08:37:48 pm
That'd probably be $15 million pro-rated over a half season wouldn't it? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 08:39:16 pm
3/45 for Kimbrel.

Thanks Dusty, for that and for being the first to post that they'd signed him!  Wow.  That's actually less bad than I expected, contract-wise. 

So, in a sense that's 2.5/45.  Kinda like $9 for this half-year, and then $18 per year for the next two. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 08:41:48 pm
Thanks Dusty, for that and for being the first to post that they'd signed him!  Wow.  That's actually less bad than I expected, contract-wise. 

So, in a sense that's 2.5/45.  Kinda like $9 for this half-year, and then $18 per year for the next two. 

That's actually more than I expected after Kimbrel's implosion last year, but I'm not complaining.  Curious to see if it's all guaranteed and if there are any options on either side.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 05, 2019, 08:42:23 pm
Wasn't he looking for something like 10/200?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 08:55:19 pm
I thought I read earlier this offseason he wanted something like 4 or 5 for 100.

As far as me posting it first dont worry about it.

I couldnt sit my phone down for 5 minutes without looking at Twitter for updates.

I just had a feeling.

I think I posted it here within a minute of Rosenthal tweeting it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2019, 09:02:37 pm
Quote
Jeff Passan
‏Verified account @JeffPassan

Craig Kimbrel's deal with the Chicago Cubs is for three years and $43 million and includes a fourth-year option, sources tell ESPN. He'll receive $10 million this season and $16 million in 2020 and 2021. There is a $1 million buyout on a club/vesting option for the fourth year.


Not that far above what I was expecting, though the AAV is a bit higher.  Obviously the nature of that vesting option is pretty key, too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 09:11:17 pm
I thought the fourth year option was for $10 million.

Parkins and McNeil on the Score said that the new TV deal will add $30 million to revenue next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 05, 2019, 09:17:13 pm
$10 is just about what Zobrist forfeits if he doesn’t come back this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2019, 09:22:20 pm
Craig Kimbrel could be with the Chicago Cubs sooner than later. In recent workouts showcasing his stuff for teams, Kimbrel has been electric. His physical is Thursday, sources tell ESPN, and him joining the Cubs before June 20 is a realistic goal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 09:24:59 pm
Interesting, Dusty, thanks again.  That's helpful to hear.  Would be sure nice if he came in quickly and was good immediately, rather than taking 6 weeks of rehab and pitching wild.  We shall see. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 09:28:44 pm
I thought the fourth year option was for $10 million.

[/quote]Craig Kimbrel's deal with the Chicago Cubs is for three years and $43 million and includes a fourth-year option... There is a $1 million buyout on a club/vesting option for the fourth year.[/quote]

Very interesting.  **IF** year four is $10, that's not so bad at all.  What does it mean to be a "club/vesting" option?  That it vests if he gets appearances, and the Cubs lose the $1 buyout option? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 05, 2019, 09:30:01 pm
Guess this means Cubs not expected to exercise Brandon Morrow’s 2020 option?   ;D
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 05, 2019, 09:38:41 pm
Heyman tweeted the option is $16 million.

I believe it best if he meets x, if not then the Cubs can pick it up or not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 05, 2019, 10:38:52 pm
Thanks, Blue.  $16 makes more sense, as does normal vesting structure.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2019, 12:02:42 am
Of course, Cubs will have to move out a reliever from the current 25 when Kimbrel is ready (liked typing that!).

Only Edwards and Ryan have options.

Cubs have been able to go the IL route when it suits them, so Brach would be an obvious candidate for some tightness somewhere.

Or, I suppose Brach could be a DFA candidate if he insists on being healthy.

Of course, a lot can change in two weeks when Kimbrel is good to go. Maybe Edwards relapses or Ryan has more poor outings or something else happens. These things have a way of working out.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on June 06, 2019, 12:07:35 am
You guys do remember that half the voters in the country voted for him, right?

That is true and makes me wonder what kind of **** would do such a thing.  Tragically, the same **** will do it again. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2019, 12:20:56 am
Have been looking around at other team rosters regarding CBJ’s interesting notion of trading Montgomery for more of a shutdown lefty reliever, to a club that might want Montgomery as a starter.

Kind of surprised at the dearth of lefty relievers on non-contenders/fringy clubs who might be willing to move a guy like that.

Of course, there’s Smith and Watson on the Giants.

Hand on the Indians—not sure he’s available. Ditto Doolittle. Probably not available short of a bundle.

Watson is more of a Justin Wilson type—not so much tough on lefty hitters. When he comes off DL, Wilson himself might be available.

Montgomery is under control through 2021, so have to get something pretty good to give him up.

Would you give up Montgomery and his 2 1/2 years of control, plus a good prospect or two, for Will Smith remainder of this season before he hits free agency?

That would be a nice tandem with Kimbrel for 2019 and post-season.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 06, 2019, 12:28:36 am
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSYCCCIvgVGtxnoEIUEp1ueuHaYa4Q0GdKzBMdPyi0f61IY4Ckf)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 06, 2019, 12:30:24 am
You guys do remember that half the voters in the country voted for him, right?

Well, Clinton got almost 3 million more votes. Add in Johnson, Stein, and McMullin...he got far less than half of the votes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2019, 12:31:35 am
Well, Clinton got almost 3 million more votes. Add in Johnson, Stein, and McMullin...he got far less than half of the votes.

Not to mention the roughly half of the country that couldn't be arsed to vote at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2019, 12:59:28 am
Moving on from the political show....


https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1136486131846012928
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chiman on June 06, 2019, 05:45:59 am
I come to this board/thread for good baseball information about our beloved Cubs not for someone’s political view be it right or left.
This board and the people are to good to let that happen when there is a Political thread for those of you who want those discussions. The people on this board with your baseball thoughts/Info are what make this place a must see for die hard Cub fans.
This post is not directed at anyone person and is only a general statement that I think most people would agree with.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on June 06, 2019, 07:18:09 am
Let me be the 100th person to say the Cubs thought Morrow would be 100% this year...otherwise they would have signed Kimbrel and given up their number 1 draft pick.   Jensen would still have been available (99 prospect) in the 2nd round and theCubs would have been comfortably (Twins cushion?? maybe) in1st place.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2019, 07:26:03 am
If they thought that, they were certainly foolish.  I think they just didn't have any money to spend and that's what changed, not Morrow's status.

You do have to hope we don't regret those 6 blown saves - Kimbrel or no Kimbrel, you can't get those games back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on June 06, 2019, 07:42:10 am
If Morrow can get back late in the year enough to get tuned in for the playoffs and the Cubs can go Strop, Morrow, Kimbrel at the end of games that would be pretty terrific.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on June 06, 2019, 07:50:24 am
Quote
Cubs can go Strop, Morrow, Kimbrel at the end of games that would be pretty terrific.

IF they are all pitching well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on June 06, 2019, 09:01:02 am
Craig Kimbrel's deal with the Chicago Cubs is for three years and $43 million and includes a fourth-year option... There is a $1 million buyout on a club/vesting option for the fourth year.

Very interesting.  **IF** year four is $10, that's not so bad at all.  What does it mean to be a "club/vesting" option?  That it vests if he gets appearances, and the Cubs lose the $1 buyout option? 

Hard to tell from that rather vague description.  But I would read it as, if he meets the vesting criteria, he automatically gets the fourth year, while if he doesn't meet the vesting criteria, then the Cubs can exercise the option for whatever the salary agreed upon, or buy him out for one million dollars.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2019, 09:59:51 am
If it vests it is a player option, if it doesn't it is a team option.

The bullpen finally has depth some guys like Cishek aren't always going to be getting up even if they don't get into games.  In the playoffs you could have the possibility of starters going 4-5 innings and handing it off.  Morrow getting healthy could make this bullpen elite. 

Trade for a lefty or let Hultzmen and Steele get a shot at it.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2019, 12:30:04 pm
This tidbit from Rosenthal re. Kimbrel.

...The Cubs, at least, were willing to take a risk. The strikeout rate of their pitchers in the ninth inning (19.9 percent) is the lowest in the National League this season, according to STATS LLC. Kimbrel, among pitchers to face at least 2,000 batters, owns the highest strikeout rate (41.6 percent) in major-league history.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 06, 2019, 12:33:04 pm
JFYI, Kimbrel in 2016 had a higher walk rate, a higher second half walk rate, and a higher season ERA than he did in 2018.  He right back to his dominant self the following season.  Hopefully he'll be doing much the same for us here soon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2019, 12:58:37 pm
The Rays were second for Kimbrel and their offer was up to $40 million according to Rosenthal.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2019, 01:37:20 pm
3/$39.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 06, 2019, 01:48:55 pm
At least the Rays scouted him pretty well.  They usually don't make a lot of mistakes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 06, 2019, 02:52:33 pm
Sounds like with some of his velocity dip last year, the age, and the wildness last year, that the Twins didn't want to go the extra 3rd year.  I wonder how easy it will be for him to vest the 4th?  And be the $60/3.5 deal? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2019, 04:25:23 pm
Sounds like with some of his velocity dip last year, the age, and the wildness last year, that the Twins didn't want to go the extra 3rd year.  I wonder how easy it will be for him to vest the 4th?  And be the $60/3.5 deal? 

Career FB velocity: 97.1
2018 FB velocity: 97.1
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2019, 04:44:19 pm
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/06/06/craig-kimbrels-high-second-half-walk-in-2018-coincided-with-shifting-release-point/

Kimbrel changed his release point and his velocity increased and it may have effected his control according to this. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 06, 2019, 04:44:27 pm
Heh heh, sounds like somebody had some fake info, then, eh? 

It was a radio guy saying that, so wrong info seems pretty plausible, I think!  Thanks for clarifying.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2019, 08:17:28 pm
The only mildly concerning thing from that article is you could infer than Kimbrel's velocity was down earlier in the season, since it ended up being exactly his career average.

Also, '17 was an anomalously high velocity year for Kimbrel (98.3).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2019, 10:13:26 pm
The release point change was the point, I don't think the article was all that concerning.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2019, 10:37:15 pm
Quote
While Alzolay rehabbed from a lat strain that cost him most of the 2018 season, however, he started watching video of something else.

Other pitchers.

“I just learned sequence,” Alzolay said. “How a guy that throws hard — how he commands his fastball and is able to throw those breaking balls late in the count. How they work through innings to go six or seven innings. How they do it.”

...

The goal this season was to find consistency. So while Alzolay rehabbed from his injury last season, he popped in tape of Chicago starters Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana. He also watched Washington Nationals star Max Scherzer and Seattle Mariners star Felix Hernandez.

“When you’re going through rehab, you have a lot of free time,” Alzolay said. “If you don’t find a way to spend that time, you’re just going to go crazy.”

So Alzolay tried to soak up as much knowledge as he could, especially from watching Hendricks.

“I like the way he works, the way he attacks hitters and the way he mixes pitches,” Alzolay said. “So I think that’s a good point to learn from.”


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2019/06/06/iowa-cubs-pitcher-chicago-cubs-prospect-adbert-alzolay-help-from-kyle-hendricks-jose-quintana-milb/1365739001/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2019, 09:21:16 am
Jon Heyman

Verified account
 
@JonHeyman
 10m10 minutes ago
More
Craig Kimbrel has passed his physical. He’s a Cub. Big move on the North Side!

0 replies 4 retweets 6 likes
Reply   Retweet 4   Like 6   Direct message
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 07, 2019, 09:28:50 am
(https://rappnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/boombanner-800x339.jpg)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2019, 10:58:02 am
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/06/07/gulp-im-gonna-say-it-carl-edwards-jr-has-been-lights-out-for-a-month-now/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 07, 2019, 12:57:44 pm

Let's get to work!

(https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/private/t_5x2/t_w1536/mlb/dor05s9mvjbv6xnae9ha.jpg)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2019, 12:58:48 pm
Kimbrel seems like a thoughtful, well balanced guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2019, 06:41:21 pm
Kimbrel seems like a thoughtful, well balanced guy.

Other than the being a Nugent fan thing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 08, 2019, 10:16:42 am
Zach Zaidman
@ZachZaidman

Since being traded to the Cubs, Cole Hamels has made 3 starts vs. St. Louis. He’s thrown 22 innings and allowed just 1 earned run.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 08, 2019, 10:19:32 am
Tony Andracki
Verified account
@TonyAndracki23

Colbert Hamels' career line as a Cub: 2.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 148 Ks in 154 innings (25 starts).

He also has a career 0.41 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 3 starts against the Cardinals while wearing a Cubs uniform.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 08, 2019, 11:27:26 am
Cubs are tie for 5th in all of mlb in HR's, and 11th in runs.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/sort/runs/order/true

IN the NL, they are 2nd in HR and 5th in runs.  What a good difference from last year. 

So many low-scoring close games like yesterday, where the HR-advantage wins the game.  (One HR each, but Baez drove in two on his, and the early 2-run HR set up the game all the way, it never felt at-risk.) 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 08, 2019, 11:44:07 am
Schwarber's at 11 HR, with .227 batting average.  He's slightly below his career norms:
*OPS+ of 98 vs 110. 
*OPS .766 below career .802 despite the juiced ball...
*BA .227 versus .228, despite the juiced ball. 

He  obviously hasn't clicked into the age-based improvement that many posters expected would come.  And I think there was the thought last year that he hit into a lot of bad luck, that he actually hit better than his production numbers indicated, and that he was likely to have an upturn this year.  (I see to recall Cubbluejay referencing some analysis that concluded that Schwarber actually hit better than Baez last year, IIRC, and that from a predictive sense that he might be expected to have much better numbers this year than he had last year?)

I think he's due for a hot streak.  Every power hitter has some hot streaks, and I don't feel like he's really clicked into any of those that have lasted longer than like two days thus far.  Maybe due for a 4-5 HR week after which OPS+ ends up >105, OPS > .800, and at least for a few days he gets his batting average up towards .240? 

Would love to see that how week start today, why not? 

I do wonder whether he still has some shift-adjusting left to make?  Seems like after hitting into the shift, that he's really re-oriented towards opposite-field approach this year, and has gotten a few soft singles that way, and has popped some opposite-field HR's.  But he hasn't jerked a lot of pull-balls over the RF wall this year.  Hopefully he'll find a couple of hot weeks where he goes opposite when the pitches are there, but drives a few pull-pitches for HR's too.  Why not start today? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 08, 2019, 12:37:57 pm
Agree with you Craig...it would be GREAT to see Schwarber take off at least some!

I'd still say he MAY show age and experience-based improvement.  He just turned 26 in March and he's not far over 1,200 MLB ABs.  Many guys experience significant improvement past that kind of age and experience level.

Of course, many do not take off and Schwarber may fall into that category.  I'll certainly continue to hope he can...he's a terrific young guy who certainly seems VERY team oriented and is easy to root for!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 08, 2019, 01:23:16 pm
Yeah, he's a super good-willed guy who it's nice to cheer for.  He just has a hard time hitting a lot of pitches. Fastball, fastballs up, strikes, a lot of breaking balls, and pitch thrown by a lefty... 

I can still imagine him making a few more adjustments, and think he's going to have some career season at some point in which he hits .240 or even .250 for batting average, which would probably correlate to an extra handful of HR's.   

I'm not much of a believer in Cargo at this stage in his career.  But it's going to be interesting to see how Maddon divides up the starts versus RHP now that they have 3 LH-hitting corner outfielders in Schwarber, Heyward, and Cargo; plus Bryant on days when Maddon wants both Russell and Bote starting. 

I kind of guess that Schwarber will out-produce Gonzalez and get most of those starts.  But might see some matchup-based starts, too, trying to maybe limit Schwarber to starts against softer-tossing breaking-ball guys who sometimes hang a few that he can smash, but not exposing him to overly many power-pitchers?   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 01:56:25 pm
Cubs are tie for 5th in all of mlb in HR's, and 11th in runs.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/sort/runs/order/true

IN the NL, they are 2nd in HR and 5th in runs.  What a good difference from last year. 

So many low-scoring close games like yesterday, where the HR-advantage wins the game.  (One HR each, but Baez drove in two on his, and the early 2-run HR set up the game all the way, it never felt at-risk.)

Cubs are 3rd in NL in runs scored per game—-behind only Dodgers and Rockies/Coors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 08, 2019, 02:22:40 pm
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/nl/order/true

Good catch, reb.  They are literally 5th in runs, 7 behind Arizona and 1 behind Brewers in runs; but have played two fewer games than each of those, so actually 3rd in runs-per-game.  Pretty nice.  3rd in runs, 3rd in the standings too. 

No surprise, pretty good correlation between runs and HRs. 

Last first-half when the Cubs were in upper-3rd in runs but lower-3rd in HR's was kind of unusual.  Being up in HR's is a more normal way to be up in runs as well, so I'm glad they are back to hitting HR's.  Hope it continues all season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 08:29:46 pm
Very good piece by Sharma about Kimbrel signing and Cubs going forward, linked below for Athletic subscribers. Talks about David Ross role in scouting Kimbrel and urging him to sign here.

Near end of piece, Sharma talks about possible Cubs targets to bolster bullpen later. Mentions a guy I overlooked in recent post on the subject: Andrew Chafin of DBacks. Career opp sluggng by lefties of .288. Might be available in July if DBacks fall out of wild card race.

https://theathletic.com/1017031/2019/06/08/if-i-had-the-checkbook-id-write-you-one-now-how-the-cubs-signed-craig-kimbrel-and-what-comes-next/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2019, 08:48:08 pm
DBacks could use a starter. Montgomery + Ryan for Chafin and a prospect?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 08, 2019, 08:52:41 pm
Cripes - I wouldn't give them Montgomery for Chafin straight up, and Ryan certainly has no trade value.  That'd have to be a damn good prospect.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 08, 2019, 08:57:09 pm
The article seems to imply that Sharma thinks Will Smith's cost is in the Cubs' range (and maybe not that different than Chafin). Personally, I'd rather just trade for him even though he doesn't come with 2020 control. He's been as good as any reliever in baseball since the start of last season.

I think I'd still prefer Tony Watson too just because he has become so anti-walk with the Giants. He's walking 1.14 per 9 IP this year (1.91 per 9 IP last year)--the Cubs really need someone like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2019, 08:58:22 pm
Looking at their roster they would need a lefty reliever to replace Chafin. I think Chafin would be more valuable to the Cubs, but Montgomery as a starter has more value, so yeah the prospect would be decent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 08, 2019, 09:05:52 pm
The article seems to imply that Sharma thinks Will Smith's cost is in the Cubs' range (and maybe not that different than Chafin). Personally, I'd rather just trade for him even though he doesn't come with 2020 control. He's been as good as any reliever in baseball since the start of last season.

Yeah, and that's gonna be costly. Giants will likely ask for Alzolay or Amaya.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 08, 2019, 09:11:16 pm
Yeah, if the cost is Alzolay or Amaya, then obviously he's out of the Cubs price range.

But here is what Sharma said about LH reliever trades:

Quote
But this team still needs a left-handed reliever who can miss bats. The prospect cost of Brad Hand or Sean Doolittle, if either are even going to be available, may not be realistic for this group.

Will Smith is dominating in San Francisco, striking out 39 percent of batters and walking just 4.9 percent, while delivering a strong 2.38 ERA and he could be an option. Andrew Chafin has a strikeout rate pushing 30 percent in Arizona with a 3.10 ERA and if the Diamondbacks decide to sell, perhaps he could become available.

He clearly seems to think the price could be affordable. Maybe he's just speculating...but if Sharma is right and his price is closer to Chafin than Chapman, then he should be the #1 target.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 09:15:12 pm
DBacks not in the kind of teardown rebuild Giants will be, so Montgomery might be attractive to them.

On other hand, as has been noted, Giants will want a top prospect for Will Smith.

Not really clear what Montgomery’s role is now with Cubs, so could see him going somewhere. Think there is the making of a possible deal in CBJ’s idea.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 09:18:45 pm
Not saying he has a ton of trade value, but Zagunis might get a chance to start in a corner OF spot for the Giants—as part of a Smith deal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 08, 2019, 09:19:37 pm
As much as I would love Smith, the whole idea of signing Kimbrel is not to give up A prospects for rent-a-relievers.  Watson would be fine.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 09:28:39 pm
Yeah, guessing that Cubs thinking along those lines regarding prospects now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 08, 2019, 09:40:02 pm
Yeah, of course the Cubs don't trade one of their top prospects for Smith.

But Sharma clearly separated Smith from Doolittle and Hand in his article, and seemed to imply his trade value was similar to Chafin. Sharma is pretty good at his job and talks to more MLB people than any of us. So IF Sharma is right and Smith's price is similar to Chafin, then Smith is the clear target. IMO.

MLB teams have completely changed the way they approach free agents in the last two years, so I think that they may have also changed the way they approach rental relievers. I don't think Smith will get anywhere close to what Chapman got.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 08, 2019, 09:42:23 pm
Yeah, of course the Cubs don't trade one of their top prospects for Smith.

But Sharma clearly separated Smith from Doolittle and Hand in his article, and seemed to imply his trade value was similar to Chafin. Sharma is pretty good at his job and talks to more MLB people than any of us. So IF Sharma is right and Smith's price is similar to Chafin, then Smith is the clear target. IMO.

MLB teams have completely changed the way they approach free agents in the last two years, so I think that they may have also changed the way they approach rental relievers. I don't think Smith will get anywhere close to what Chapman got.

If Sharma thinks the cost on Smith would be similar to Chafin, he's not actually all that good at his job.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 08, 2019, 09:53:50 pm
Yeah, I think Smith is in a very different price range and is beyond our means. 

I also think that some of you are kind of too negative on Ryan.  He's pitched some pretty good baseball, and has been victim of some bad luck. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 08, 2019, 09:58:51 pm
The Cubs need a lefty reliever who is tough on LH hitters.  Ryan hasn't been that guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2019, 10:05:32 pm
I think Smith is within reach if you deal Horner or Amaya+.  I don’t think Hand or Doolittle are within the Cubs reach. Chaffin would be less and having Montgomery and Chatwood in the pen as long guys kinda mess things up.

Chaffin or Watson or somebody similar are what the Cubs need. Ryan has value, he just can’t be your first lefty out of the pen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 10:36:41 pm
Some club probably is going to want Smith as a closer or co-closer, so you’d have to compete with that club to get Smith.

But, Cubs don’t need Smith for that role.  They need a lefty for a different role. So, realistically, Chafin is not going to be pursued by anybody for a Smith role and, therefore, price will be lower, clearly. Don’t think Sharma was saying or implying to the contrary but was separating Smith from Doolittle and Hand, who are under control beyond 2019 and, therefore, costlier than even Smith.

Chafin is different than Watson because doesn’t give up extra-base hits to lefties and more of a specialist, where Watson more of a neutral splits guy—actually not very good against lefties this season.

In any case, either Chafin or Watson would be a good addition here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 08, 2019, 10:40:38 pm
If we're looking for a LOOGY, why not Liriano from Pittsburg?  That's how the Pirates have used him this year and he's been lights out.  Check his stats.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2019, 11:00:13 pm
Yeah, Liriano is another candidate if Bucs fall out of contention. But, wonder if they might stick around.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 08, 2019, 11:17:58 pm
Watson has a career .584 OPS against vs. lefties (.656 vs. righties).  Silly to weight a few ABs this year more heavily than that.  If anything the reason he's not a huge splits guy isn't that he's not tough on lefties, it's that he's also pretty tough on righties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 09, 2019, 12:36:01 am
Nobody is “weighing” this year’s Watson lefty splits “more heavily” than what it is.

Noted that Chafin more of a specialist than Watson, hence different, and that either would be a good addition. Think worth pointing out that Watson has struggled against lefties this season...but yes a small sample size. If it was problematic, wouldn’t be saying he’d be a good addition.

Cubs, at the moment, have a particular need that Chafin fits. Chafin has faced lefties 58% of his opposing hitters. Watson has faced 30% lefties. Giants use him as more of a generalist quality reliever. Of course, Cubs can always use another neutral splits quality reliever, but clubs tend to focus on specific needs when trade deadline looms and Chafin more of a specialist that fits what Cubs specifically lacking.

Further, every contender that needs relief help will be pursuing Watson. Probably less competition for Chafin if he hits the market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 09, 2019, 11:30:09 am
A lefty that is struggling this year is Adam Conley. He’s averaging almost 97 on his fastball and was good last year. If the Cubs think there is something they can fix he’d be really interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 09, 2019, 12:26:57 pm
Conley doesn't dominate LH hitters.  Pass.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 09, 2019, 01:38:46 pm
Last year when he was good lefties went .179/.264/.321 against him.

He has the fastball/slider for lefties and a change against righties. The Cubs would have to see something fixable and the Marlins would be an organization that I would believe is behind on the analytic curve.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 09, 2019, 02:18:36 pm
Kyle Hendricks is elevating his pitches this season, and it's an adjustment based on the fact that hitters are focusing more on launch angle.

Living upstairs in the strike zone -- or even higher -- is no longer just for the flamethrowers. The launch-angle era has changed strategies for many, including hurlers who average 87 mph on their fastball.

"I've been doing it more lately," Hendricks said last week. "The way the game is going, the way guys are swinging, I feel like more of the holes are being presented up in the zone now."

"More" might be an understatement. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Hendricks has thrown at least 40 pitches in the upper half of the zone in each of his past five starts. The results have been astonishing: he's 4-0 with a .198 batting average against, striking out 37 in 34⅔ innings pitched. For the season, Hendricks is climbing the ladder nearly 10 percent more than he ever has.


https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26929524/your-eyes-get-big-why-kyle-hendricks-pitching-zone
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 09, 2019, 02:27:25 pm
He’s not dumb.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 09, 2019, 03:29:13 pm
For his career, Conley has given up .267/.343/.403 vs. LH hitters.  I wouldn't be too swayed by one strong season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 09, 2019, 04:07:58 pm
Most of that was as a starter with a below average fastball. Andrew Miller used to be bad against lefties too. It would be a scouting decision. He might just suck, but there could be something hidden too.

Liriano just got lit up by the Brewers lefties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 11, 2019, 02:13:40 pm
Interesting bit on how good Cishek has been:  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/06/11/steve-cisheks-great-year-and-losses-like-that-one/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on June 11, 2019, 04:01:24 pm
With Morrow and Kimbrel, make Darvish an opener, 2 innings max, let him throw his 6 different pitches and hit his 2 batsmen and be done.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2019, 12:56:32 pm
Cishek taken off the field on a golf cart while playing catch before the game.

Edit: Hit by a baseball in the back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 12, 2019, 01:15:37 pm
Cishek taken off the field on a golf cart while playing catch before the game.

Edit: Hit by a baseball in the back.

That sounds like a genuine Cub injury there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 12, 2019, 01:17:44 pm
Interesting bit on how good Cishek has been:  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/06/11/steve-cisheks-great-year-and-losses-like-that-one/

Cishek taken off the field on a golf cart while playing catch before the game.

Edit: Hit by a baseball in the back.

By the way, I think it's fair to say this unfortunate incident is all PlayTwo's fault.  He posts a glowing article about the season Cishek's having, and then Cishek gets hit in the back by a baseball not even 24 hours later.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2019, 01:24:44 pm
Rogers was live on the radio and initially made it sound like Cishek blew out his knee, so I'll take no worse than a concussion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 12, 2019, 01:37:29 pm
That's one way to keep Maddon from overworking Cishek.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 12, 2019, 01:59:51 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  8m8 minutes ago
Cishek was struck on inside of right knee, directly on bone. Has knee wrapped, status for Wednesday unknown.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2019, 02:01:35 pm
From Cubs:

Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
A Cubs official says Steve Cishek got hit on the inside of his right knee while playing catch with Brandon Kintzler in the Coors Field outfield. Sounds like a bad bruise for Cishek, who got carted off the field. It’s unclear if Cishek will be available out of the bullpen today.
2:54 PM · Jun 12, 2019 · Twitter Web Client
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 12, 2019, 02:38:48 pm
Rub some dirt on it!  Pansy!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 12, 2019, 03:59:42 pm
Surprising, I know.

Len Kasper
@LenKasper

Psssst, Cubs with nobody on base -- .240 w/.749 ops. Cubs with runners on base -- .272 w/.856 ops. RiSP -- .248 w/.803 ops. The 2016 World Series Champs w/RiSP -- .252 w/.771 ops.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 12, 2019, 04:02:38 pm
35
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 12, 2019, 04:25:33 pm
Rub some dirt on it!  Pansy!

Get Yu to pee on it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 13, 2019, 05:52:20 pm
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/carl-edwards-jr-to-il-with-thoracic-strain
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 13, 2019, 06:17:53 pm
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/carl-edwards-jr-to-il-with-thoracic-strain
Retroactive to June 10. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 14, 2019, 10:42:31 am
Rogers and Mooney are reporting it is possible Zobrist might return in Sept.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 14, 2019, 11:02:23 am
For a swan song?  I love the guy, but after sitting out that long, I don't see him as adding value.  Come back now, even if it causes some roster moves, or retire.  JMO
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 14, 2019, 11:46:16 am
If he sucks the don't have to add him the playoff roster, no harm on seeing what he can do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 14, 2019, 11:56:16 am
Schwarber has 1 softly hit ball over his last 72 plate appearances!  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/06/14/did-you-realize-just-how-hot-kyle-schwarber-has-been/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on June 14, 2019, 04:44:43 pm
Schwarber has 1 softly hit ball over his last 72 plate appearances!  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/06/14/did-you-realize-just-how-hot-kyle-schwarber-has-been/
WOW. That is incredible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 14, 2019, 06:46:07 pm
Ive always known Schwarber was a certified bad ass.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 14, 2019, 07:39:41 pm
If he sucks the don't have to add him the playoff roster, no harm on seeing what he can do.

Yeah, add Z and Hultzen in September and see what happens.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 14, 2019, 11:50:47 pm
The Cubs are paying Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Chatwood, and Heyward $91.5M this year for their combined 3.4 WAR.

For comparison, the Marlins' Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson have combined for 3.3 WAR.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 15, 2019, 08:11:15 am
If only we didn't have such rubes running the Cubs. Can we trade them for the Marlins front office?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on June 15, 2019, 01:51:01 pm
This road trip has been brutal so far. 1-4 and a sweep by the Dodgers is very possible. The Dodgers look like they are in a different league than the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 15, 2019, 02:06:47 pm
Cody Allen anyone?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 15, 2019, 03:07:17 pm
Nah he’s washed up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 15, 2019, 04:51:55 pm
Kyle Hendricks to the IL with right shoulder inflammation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 15, 2019, 05:28:46 pm
Kyle Hendricks to the IL with right shoulder inflammation.

That's not good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 15, 2019, 06:48:26 pm
Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
The Cubs haven’t made a final decision about who will replace Kyle Hendricks in the rotation and when that will take place. But Theo Epstein said the team had already been thinking about giving top prospect Adbert Alzolay a spot start or two to help his transition to the majors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 15, 2019, 06:54:55 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  14m14 minutes ago
Theo said Alzolay’s curve is as good as he’s seen. Still assessing three options. Won’t skip remaining starters’ turn

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  1h1 hour ago
Cubs don’t need a fifth starter until June 22 vs. Mets. Chatwood? Montgomery? Alzolay? Place your bets
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 15, 2019, 06:54:59 pm
Kyle Hendricks to the IL with right shoulder inflammation.

Fuuuuuuuuck.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 16, 2019, 09:06:46 am
HUGE win last night!!  Hats off to Yu and Tony!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 16, 2019, 04:56:13 pm
Kimbrel (and Hultzen) to Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 16, 2019, 05:45:24 pm
HUGE win last night!!  Hats off to Yu and Tony!!
  The Tony Inning, top and bottom.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 16, 2019, 06:28:06 pm
Prediction: Jose Quintana to the IL with left shoulder inflammation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 18, 2019, 04:23:42 pm
Quote
The @Cubs organizational debut for Craig Kimbrel went about as well as could be expected for the @IowaCubs -- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 K, 0 BB. A perfect 1-2-3 inning. Eight pitches, six strikes. Fastball was 95-96 mph. Struck out last hitter on a nasty curveball.


https://twitter.com/voiceofcohen/status/1141093634869059584
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 18, 2019, 05:13:23 pm
Tyler Chatwood will start for the Cubs on Thursday against the Mets.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 18, 2019, 06:02:53 pm
Good.  Chatwood has earned a chance to start.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 18, 2019, 06:22:09 pm
I was hoping to see Alzolay but I understand.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 18, 2019, 06:34:42 pm
Brandon Morrow has began throwing from 135 feet.

He hasnt pitched since last July.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 18, 2019, 06:47:55 pm
GM Jed Hoyer said Hendricks is dealing with an impingement in his throwing shoulder:

"I feel like we got ahead of it. We're not sure how much time he'll miss, but we'll try to take it slow and take the length of the season into account."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 18, 2019, 08:08:06 pm
Kimbrel:

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/video/kimbrel-records-k-in-rehab
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 18, 2019, 11:08:49 pm
Cubs are now 12th in runs, 5th in the NL. 
HR's, they are 2nd-per-game in the NL, but 6th in slugging. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 19, 2019, 11:52:39 pm
Cubs pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay will be called up on Thursday before the Cubs' game against the Mets.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 20, 2019, 12:07:19 am
Tim Collins DFA'd.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 20, 2019, 01:22:12 am
Cubs have released Brian Duensing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 20, 2019, 01:33:39 am
Interesting that Cubs DFA Collins rather than optioning him, opening up a spot on 40-man.

Could mean that Tony Barnette will be coming up soon (now on 60-day IL and pitching well at Iowa on rehab).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 20, 2019, 06:15:04 am
Framing update according to BP: Caratini 23/90 eligible catchers, Contreras 90/90.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 20, 2019, 07:08:36 am
Is Zobrist still on 40 man?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 20, 2019, 07:26:41 am
Is Zobrist still on 40 man?

No.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 20, 2019, 07:46:33 am
Then maybe they are clearing an opening for him?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 20, 2019, 08:46:03 am
Interesting that Cubs DFA Collins rather than optioning him, opening up a spot on 40-man.

Could mean that Tony Barnette will be coming up soon (now on 60-day IL and pitching well at Iowa on rehab).

Quote from: Bleacher Nation
Although the Adbert Alzolay call-up, itself, necessarily deserves the bulk of the attention, we should also note the roster-related impact. To make room on the 25-man roster, lefty Tim Collins was designated for assignment. Because Collins has at least five years of service time, even though he has minor league options remaining, he has the right to refuse an option to Iowa. Thus, if the Cubs wanted him off the 25-man roster, their only choices are to get him to agree to an option or to DFA him – the implication, then, is that he did not want to be optioned, and instead would like the opportunity to be claimed by another team on waivers or hit free agency.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 20, 2019, 10:18:29 am
Cubs pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay will be called up on Thursday before the Cubs' game against the Mets.

Quote from: ESPN
Top pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay will join the team Thursday in case it needs innings behind Tyler Chatwood, who is making his second start of the season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 21, 2019, 09:32:03 am
There are currently 13 pitchers on the 25-man roster

June 20 - Carl Edwards, Jr eligible to return
June 23 - Craig Kimbrel arrives
June 25 - Kyle Hendricks eligible to return

Rowan Wick will go back to Iowa. 
Do the Cubs tell Adbert Alzolay, sorry, you’ll be back as soon as there is an opening?
Is Daniel Descalso’s job safe?
Will there be a phantom injury to one of the current relievers?
Is there a trade in the works?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on June 21, 2019, 09:35:37 am
Framing update according to BP: Caratini 23/90 eligible catchers, Contreras 90/90.

And yet, with all his framing problems, Contreras is one of the most valuable players on the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 21, 2019, 09:55:09 am
There are currently 13 pitchers on the 25-man roster

June 20 - Carl Edwards, Jr eligible to return
June 23 - Craig Kimbrel arrives
June 25 - Kyle Hendricks eligible to return

Rowan Wick will go back to Iowa. 
Do the Cubs tell Adbert Alzolay, sorry, you’ll be back as soon as there is an opening?
Is Daniel Descalso’s job safe?
Will there be a phantom injury to one of the current relievers?
Is there a trade in the works?
I think the Cubs still have a pitcher or two they could option or DFA.  I'm still not sold on Ryan or Brach.  Sometimes brilliant, other times not.  If the Cubs kicked in money, I think Chatwood and Montgomery might be tradeable. 
Even after last night's important hit, I was thinking that if and when Zobrist returns, Descalso is gone.
No phantom injury.  A mercy killing perhaps. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 21, 2019, 10:03:19 am
Tony Barnette is very close to completing his rehab assignment in Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on June 21, 2019, 10:33:43 am
I think that the Cubs called up Alzolay with the intention of giving him a very short experience in the majors, and then send him down for further seasoning.  Of course that can change if he pitches as well in the next two or three games as he did yesterday, but I think that failing that, he will go down when Hendricks returns.  I think that they will believe that he has more value in the minors as a starter than currently in the majors as a reliever, especially with Kimbrel joining them and Edwards back in the pen.

I think that Montgomery could be traded easily, without adding money.  Of course, they wouldn't get a lot for him.  With what they seem to see as Chatwood's potential, they would probably keep him as a long reliever to see what develops.

I am not crazy about Ryan, but they don't have a lot of lefties in the pen.  He is not a LOOGY, but he is probably better against lefties than most of their right handed relievers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 21, 2019, 11:00:34 am
.....Montgomery ....

I'd think Montgomery has to go.  And I've got to assume he might go DL?

He had bad arm earlier.  He rested it for a month, came back and had one really effective game, but he's been terrible ever since.  After 2017, he talked about how worn his arm was, after starting a lot and relieving and really getting burned up.  Had some DL time again last year, and was good for a while but arm seemed dead and useless during last several months.  This year dead arm; one good game, dead arm again. 

Maybe he's hurt, and DL or surgery can fix.  Maybe his arm just got fried for those two heavy-use years, and it's beyond repair, maybe his arm is just never going to come back beyond a 4A guy now.  Maybe his stuff has always been fringy, and for whatever reason confidence and mechanics are a little out of whack, and maybe in 2021 he'll be useful again, I don't know.  But for now it's just not happening. 

And for now, he has no effective function right now.  He's no good as a lefty situational guy; Maddon always goes to Ryan, and the occasions when he does go to MM, he's never effective.  He's been worthless as a 1 or 2 full-innings reliever.  Other than his one good post-DL game, he's been worthless in long relief.  Bring him in to try to eat innings, that doesn't work when he's pitching batting practice and letting a game get totally away. 

He had one 5-inning no run game against the Marlins. 

In his other 15 appearances (not a lot for being almost the end of June), he's a composite:
*15 games
*12.2-20-10-9-9-6-3
*WHIP 2.1
*<1 IP-per-appearance
*1.435 OPS vs LHP.
*3 HR in 12.2 innings. 

Really useless, and really un-usable, which is why he's pitched so little. 
1.  You want a lefty, but the 1.435 OPS vs lefties isn't really a thing.  As a matchup guy, what's the use?
2.  You want a long man?  <1 IP/appearance doesn't suggest that's really a use.  Chapman or Alzolay can do the long stuff.....
3.  He's never been a K-guy, his profile has been as a groundball guy.  3 HR in 12 innings, that's not really working either.   

At present, he simply has no function on the team, or at least no function that he's currently capable of accomplishing. 

I think you've got to get him off the roster.  *IF* that's a change-of-scenery trade, and brings nothing but a token non-prospect, do it.  *IF* that means putting him on DL, phantom or not, do it.  *IF* that means just releasing him, that's better than wasting a roster spot. 

But somehow he can't continue on the roster with his recent level of no-role non-usage and ineffectiveness. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 21, 2019, 11:25:34 am
Well, Montgomery got the Final Out.

We’ll always have Paris.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 21, 2019, 01:04:42 pm
Chatwood and Alzolay reduce the need for Montgomery as a swing starter.  As strictly a reliever, Montgomery's value to the Cubs is minimal.  Get what you can for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on June 21, 2019, 07:20:41 pm
Cubs have SEVEN players in the finals for the ASG vote. Including all three of our primary outfielders. Apparently there are still a $@&! ton of Cubs fans out there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 21, 2019, 09:48:51 pm
Just one K in two innings for Kimbrel so far:

Quote
Craig Kimbrel threw 19 pitches (12 strikes) in one inning tonight for Triple-A Iowa. Generated three groundouts and gave up a double. Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said there's a chance Kimbrel pitches again Saturday. Team has to see how he feels and recovers. We'll know more in the morning.


https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1142260029552234496
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 22, 2019, 07:41:36 pm
Kimbrel gives up a HR and BB in 2/3 IP, 14 pitches.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 22, 2019, 07:43:57 pm
93-94 on the fastball.  Maybe a little concerning.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 22, 2019, 07:55:52 pm
Despite the talk of how electric he was pitching in front of teams before signing he sure hasn't dominated AAA competition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 22, 2019, 07:57:42 pm
Pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Kimbrel's outing Saturday. He sure isn't 96-99 like he used to be.


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2019/06/22/craig-kimbrel-iowa-cubs-chicago-cubs-baseball-pitching-speed/1538942001/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 22, 2019, 07:59:22 pm
If you look at Kimbrel's last couple of seasons, his velocity has trended up as the season progressed, and of course this is effectively spring training for him.  Presumably the Cubs did all their medicals and concluded to their satisfaction that there was nothing wrong with the shoulder or elbow.  Hopefully this is nothing more than getting his legs under him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 22, 2019, 08:01:28 pm
Kimbrel gives up a HR and BB in 2/3 IP, 14 pitches.
He's ready!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 23, 2019, 12:30:23 am
Quote
@BruceMiles2112
 9h9 hours ago
More
Over his last 6 starts, including today, Quintana has given up 42 hits and 23 earned runs in 35.1 IP. That's a 5.86 ERA in that stretch. #Cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 23, 2019, 04:57:54 am
Quote

@TonyAndracki23
 13h13 hours ago
More
Addison Russell is now hitting .167/.222/.229 (.451 OPS) in his last 16 games with 15 strikeouts and only 1 extra-base hit (his HR Friday vs. Mets).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 23, 2019, 10:50:43 am
Barnette added to the roster, Wick back to AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on June 23, 2019, 01:48:28 pm
Cargo since joining the Cubs

7-35  7 BB  16 K   .200/.326/.343

It's time for him to prove he is still a major leaguer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 05:22:35 pm
Sharma with a really good piece on what Happ is working on at Iowa.

https://theathletic.com/1042280/2019/06/23/can-ian-happ-hit-his-way-back-to-chicago-hes-working-on-it/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 23, 2019, 07:54:07 pm
Sharma with a really good piece on what Happ is working on at Iowa.

https://theathletic.com/1042280/2019/06/23/can-ian-happ-hit-his-way-back-to-chicago-hes-working-on-it/

It is a very interesting article, indeed.  Not sure how encouraging it is about Happ's future though. He's obviously struggling mightily.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 08:06:10 pm
McLeod pretty frank about Happ troubles with high heat.

Especially in today’s game, that is an existential threat to a hitter’s career.

We talked last year here about Happ swinging through way too many pitches in the zone, hittable pitches. Really something Happ has to fix, if he can. Remains to be seen.

Would also help to minimize his PAs that get to 2-strike counts, also discussed in the Sharma piece. Happ was dead meat too often in those counts last season. Tough for just about everybody, but brutal for him.

With Cargo not looking so hot, Almora struggling again, and Zobrist absent, this would have been a great opportunity for Happ to contribute in majors. But, guess not going to happen at the moment.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 08:28:14 pm
Heyward is now at .780 OPS, above his career average...but has only 0.5 and 0.6 WAR per BR and FG.

This has a lot to do with playing almost 40% of the time in CF, where his defensive metrics are poor.

Way better in RF. We all know that.

This is not really an efficient use of Heyward, obviously. You have a premier defensive guy and use him that much at a position where the metrics say he’s subpar compared to his peers. At this rate, Heyward won’t even get to 2 WAR for the season—basically an average starter #—even though his hitting has been a pleasant surprise.

Well, would be nice if Cubs had a leadoff hitter who could be the regular CFer, thereby letting Heyward play his natural position more in RF AND move Schwarber back down in the lineup where he belongs—-another inefficiency.

A reminder how important the former Dexter was to the Cubs in recent years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 23, 2019, 08:45:26 pm
Who is this lead off CF that could hit lead off and was available to the Cubs in the off season?  Trout, Acuna, Verdigo and Ketel Marte are the only CF with a positive defensive value and greater than a .330 OBP.

Schwarber has an .856 OPS, 24 R, 26 RBI batting first this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 09:11:34 pm
Said “would be nice” if they had a leadoff guy like that, not that Cubs messed up in off-season. There’s a difference.

As to Schwarber, everybody would be better off if Cubs could bat him lower. His strength is as an iso power guy. The shift just murders his BA and BABIP (.270 career BABIP and even lower this season) and with his high Ks, he should be hitting lower. His strength is slugging, not OBP (currently a blah .323).

Is he the best current option at leadoff? Yes, probably. But, that doesn’t mean it’s the best use of the player. That’s my point: use the player in a way that is most efficient, if you can.

Okay, here’s a suggestion for this guy I would like to see as leadoff/CF.

Whit Merrifield, who has come up here before for discussion.

First, I have no real idea if he would he any good defensively in CF. Have not seen him play there and small sample metrics say he was good there in 2018 and terrible this year. Is playing more OF in 2019, mostly RF.

But, he’s a legit leadoff type, can run, under control for a bunch of seasons. Makes $1 this season. A thought.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 23, 2019, 09:14:25 pm
Batting Schwarber leadoff is kinda like you have 7 ugly girlfriends so you keep the least ugly of them all.

That doesnt mean she's pretty but she's still the prettiest of the ugly ones.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 09:20:18 pm
Yeah, that’s exactly what I meant to say.  :o
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 23, 2019, 09:35:14 pm
Tim Collins has reported to Iowa (pitched today) and has passed on an opportunity to become a FA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 23, 2019, 11:43:51 pm
Would Dee Gordon be passable in CF? I have no idea how he performed out there in his limited time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2019, 12:11:16 am
Gordon is not what I had in mind at all.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 24, 2019, 06:57:25 am
Gordon has a sub .300 OBP and was pretty bad in CF.

The Royals have shown zero interest in trading Merrifield. Merrifield’s defense in the OF has been in small sample sizes. His Outs Above Average using stat cast has been 1 or -2 each season. So call him an average OF.

I think it would be really nice to if the Cubs could get their hands on a starter with mid 90’s fastball, pinpoint control, amazing secondaries, perfect  and making the major league minimum if where dreaming up fantasy players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2019, 01:33:23 pm
LOL. Last offseason, you said Merrifield wouldn’t be an infield upgrade for the Cubs and now you’re comparing him to “a starter with mid 90’s fastball, pinpoint control, amazing secondaries, perfect  and making the major league minimum.”

Guess you like him now.

Yeah, he’s unlikely to be available given his high value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 24, 2019, 01:59:14 pm
Nope.

Nobody was available this off-season as a plus defensive CF with a high OBP.  I we are going to dream about non-existent players being added to the Cubs I'd rather have the pitcher.

My issue with Whitfield is he is a high BABIP guy to create his value.  They can fall off the cliff rather fast and hard, like Ender.  Segura is another example.  His OBP is .317 with his BABIP being decreased.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2019, 04:04:32 pm

....My issue with Whitfield is he is a high BABIP guy to create his value.  They can fall off the cliff rather fast and hard, like Ender.  Segura is another example.  His OBP is .317 with his BABIP being decreased.

Some very good players are high BABIP guys for a reason. It’s not necessarily luck that runs out in short order.

Here are the top 10 BABIP guys since 2015 thru today (minimum 2500 PAs): Yelich, Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, LeMahieu, Freeman, Votto, Blackman, Trout, Altuve, Bryant.

The BABIP trailers are a different caliber of guys since 2015: Pujols, T. Frazier, C. Santana, Encarnacion, Dozier, Odor, K. Seager, K. Davis, Kinsler, C. Davis.

Hit the ball hard in play, hit the ball to different parts of the park, for some-a speed factor, be hurt less by shifting, etc.

It’s more than good/bad luck at times. Yes, luck comes into play. But, ability comes into play too.

Ability is affected by getting hurt. That’s what happened to Inciarte. Been close to a 3 WAR player for a few seasons.

Braves are doing just fine without Inciarte, so maybe he’s available. Would be interested in him for Cubs, especially with Maddon hitting the pitcher #8. Plug in Inciarte at #9 and let Heyward return to his natural position.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2019, 07:30:25 pm
Brandon Morrow! Brandon Morrow!

Sharma:

Morrow threw 2nd side [session], 3rd is coming. Feeling great, coming along better than last time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on June 24, 2019, 08:38:47 pm
Kimbrel and Morrow would sure change the dynamic of the bullpen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 24, 2019, 10:46:40 pm
Kimbrel and Morrow would sure change the dynamic of the bullpen.
I'm really hopeful.  I admit I wonder whether Morrow would actually be any good?  Kind of wild to start with, taking a year-plus off, not sure whether he'd have any control.  But fun to imagine having him back at his best, somehow. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 24, 2019, 10:51:07 pm
Morrow will be great for the 4 innings or so before he blows his arm out again.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 25, 2019, 12:28:35 am
Anything whatsoever out of Morrow would be a complete bonus, and it'd be a mistake to get your hopes up.  But sure, Morrow setting up Kimbrel (assuming Kimbrel gets it ramped up to his old self) is certainly the dream scenario.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on June 25, 2019, 11:21:22 am
Strop, Morrow, Kimbrel could make the playoffs a 6 inning affair if all are healthy and performing as expected.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 25, 2019, 11:36:14 am
Now we just need some starters who can go 6!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on June 25, 2019, 12:18:28 pm
Morrow will suck if they ever let him back on the mound at Wrigley...he is toast and will not be back this season
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 25, 2019, 09:58:59 pm
Kimbrel with a clean inning, 2 Ks, sat 94-96. I expect that will be good enough for Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 25, 2019, 10:23:18 pm
Too bad fixing the closer spot won't fix this team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 25, 2019, 11:42:05 pm
Quote
Tommy Birch
‏Verified account @TommyBirch
56m56 minutes ago

Nothing official but from everyone I’ve spoken to with the #Cubs, it’s looking very likely that Craig Kimbrel’s time with the Iowa #Cubs is complete. We shall see.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 26, 2019, 02:06:44 pm
Robel Garcia is well on his way from Team Italy to Wrigley Field. Don't be surprised if the mysterious 26-year-old soon replaces Daniel Descalso or even Addison Russell. He's become an intriguing internal option for the @Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 26, 2019, 02:07:30 pm
I asked if Garcia was legit a few weeks ago and no one even thought it was worth answering.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on June 26, 2019, 02:47:26 pm
Sharma has a very enthusiastic piece on Adbert Alzolay.  It's hard not to get a bit excited about this guy.

https://theathletic.com/1047854/2019/06/26/showing-poise-on-the-mound-adbert-alzolay-impresses-as-the-future-of-the-cubs-homegrown-pitching/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 26, 2019, 03:00:43 pm
Hey Dusty, I saw something not long ago that McLeod really likes Robel Garcia's exit velocity from both sides of the plate (he's a switch hitter, which also helps).  Apparently, he crushes fastballs and he's not that old (26 or so).

Of course, there are issues or he wouldn't be at Iowa...among them might be:
* Cubs would have to roster him (don't think he's rostered now)
* He's K'd more than a third of his minor-league ABs...not likely to diminish in MLB
* Can he handle MLB breaking stuff?  Quite a few guys who can rip minor-league pitching really struggle with MLB off-speed and breaking stuff.  (I couldn't handle good breaking balls by age 14, so I can't even imagine how guys hit MLB breaking balls)

It's really nice having Garcia in the system, but something significant would have to give for it to happen this season.  Are you willing to dump Russell as some would? (no way Garcia replaces Russell defensively)  Are you willing to give up on Descalso? (Maddon likes him as a clubhouse guy - such guys seem to be VERY valuable in a VERY long season)

I'd guess Garcia would come up in September and, if he produces in a significant way, maybe he could stick.  Of course, Theo et al are watching him very closely and know all sorts of stuff that I don't (e.g. Is he a good clubhouse guy or a me-1st guy?  Would the stage be too big for him for one reason or another?  Does he currently have a hole in his swing that would quickly be uncovered at the MLB level?)

It would be great to see him provide an injection of energy for the Cubs!  He's a great story and it sure seems our guys need an injection from someone!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 26, 2019, 03:05:10 pm
The mechanics guy does not like Alzolay's:


https://twitter.com/thepainguy/status/1143674600913559552

https://twitter.com/thepainguy/status/1143704966495899649
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 26, 2019, 04:41:26 pm
Maddon says Kimbrel is on his way to Chicago. Sounds like he’ll be activated tomorrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 26, 2019, 06:05:08 pm
So is Kimbrel the closer immediately, or does Joe ease him into the role?

Personally, I’d let him close. Put him in the role he’s most comfortable and don’t screw around.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 26, 2019, 06:57:43 pm
That means a lead in the 9th inning, right? I can't remember anymore.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 27, 2019, 04:35:04 pm
Heyward is now at .803 OPS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on June 27, 2019, 05:32:30 pm
That dude is streaky
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2019, 05:34:40 pm
With the CarGo experiment going as well as expected and Kimbrel in the fold, I think a hitter becomes the top priority now. Almora has reverted to Almora, Russell isn’t the answer, and Descalso is so broken it’s hard to imagine he’ll be fixed.  Zobrist away for half a season or a 26 year-old striking at at 35% in AAA aren’t good bets either.  We really need another reliable bat, preferably as P2 said someone who can handle 2B.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 27, 2019, 05:46:35 pm
GREAT work at the plate today by Heyward and Caratini, and nice to see Kimbrel get the save (even though he forgot to cover 1st and Rizzo saved him!).

We NEEDED that W today!  Let's go play really good baseball vs the Reds!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2019, 05:50:06 pm
I think Caratini has really improved as a receiver this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 27, 2019, 05:56:52 pm
My preference would be to look for a CF instead of a 2B. Now that Heyward's offense is finally there, he's undermining his value because he has to play out of position so often. It would be nice to just get him back to RF.

Bote is slumping lately, but he's still basically a league average hitter in his career and very slightly above this year (which is significantly better than Russell and Almora). I think there's potential for improving second base internally, but the outfield isn't going to get better unless they make a trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 27, 2019, 06:23:44 pm
Contreras and Baez are starting the All Star Game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2019, 06:28:44 pm
My preference would be to look for a CF instead of a 2B. Now that Heyward's offense is finally there, he's undermining his value because he has to play out of position so often. It would be nice to just get him back to RF.

Bote is slumping lately, but he's still basically a league average hitter in his career and very slightly above this year (which is significantly better than Russell and Almora). I think there's potential for improving second base internally, but the outfield isn't going to get better unless they make a trade.

I’d take the help wherever we could get it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 27, 2019, 09:40:59 pm
Has anybody bothered to look at the bad teams 2B and CF situations?

Unless Whit Merrifield or Jeff McNeil is getting traded you are looking at Jacoby Jones or Greg Garcia being the best available.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 27, 2019, 11:11:09 pm
Although 2B has been a Cubs weakness so far (.636 OPS at 2B #13 in NL), I think there are plenty of internal alternatives there and it’s likely to get better, perhaps quite a bit.

OF is different. Zobrist is out. Cargo brought in and another couple weeks of poor offense from him is likely going to have Cubs looking elsewhere. Assuming Happ isn’t an attractive call-up by then, probably looking to deal.

As CBJ notes, will be tough to find a CFer—-and think a corner guy more likely just to replace Cargo if have to do that.

Think we’ll probably just have to live with Heyward playing a lot of CF this season—something to address coming off-season.

Suggest a possible guy: Kole Calhoun of Angels, a RFer. A pending FA (Angels unlikely to pick up a $14M 2020 option). Now sharing a corner spot there. Hitting with power this season. Decent player. Angels probably pick up chunk of 2019 salary. Maybe have interest in Montgomery?

Easier to get a corner guy than a CFer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2019, 11:17:27 pm
A reflection on Javy’s star power - he got 66% of the All-Star vote at SS from the St. Louis market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 27, 2019, 11:25:50 pm
Which is kind of amazing since Baez and DeJong have the same WAR number.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2019, 11:46:27 pm
Merrifield is kind of the dream scenario of course. He hits for average, has some power, steals bases and seems to be above average at both 2B and CF.  But you’d have to think he would be outrageously expensive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 08:20:31 am
The Royals are selling this as a retool, not a rebuild so I don’t think he is really on the market.

I’m not sure the Angels will sell off, they are 2 games over .500. Castellanos is a similar player and shouldn’t have much cost in a prospect trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 28, 2019, 08:42:09 am
Castellanos seems to be the guy that checks the most "fit" boxes.  Not too expensive either in terms of prospects or salary. a team definitely selling.  He's a pretty solid hitter though probably best suited for a platoon, and pretty much a butcher wherever you play him in the field.  Certainly I'd be happy to have him and I think he'd be a clear step up from Almora and Russell with the bat, and probably better than Bote too.  Might be about the best we'd be able to do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 28, 2019, 09:32:50 am
We were fortunate that Kimbrel signed with us before Hicks blew out his arm.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 09:47:39 am
Hanigar might be available too, so he'd be worth looking into.  I'm not sure what the cost would be.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 28, 2019, 10:07:41 am
When Hoyer and Theo got started here, they did some really good moves.  Many are believers in the determinative impact of upper-management-process.  I kinda of agree, although I think a lot more comes down to case-by-case decisions. 
*Two of the great early decisions were the trade for Rizzo, and the probably somewhat lucky acquisition and transformation of Arrieta. 
*Lester was a great one, too. 
*I also thought the Rondon pickup was really a terrific creation of value pickup, even though his early success didn't last as well as I'd hoped back in 2015. 

Obviously the process is just as smart now, I'm sure;
1.  but the process hasn't actually resulted in the Heyward-Chatwood-Darvish-Quintana decisions working that well.  I'm sure the process was great; they just didn't really talent-evaluate very well. 
2.  And in retrospect the D+D hasn't really been that hot either.  They hit on Bryant.  But Almora (0.5 WAR), Schwarber (0.3 WAR), and Happ aren't necessarily the the kinds of championship selections you tanked for.  I'm sure the process has been great; but the actual players selected, they just didn't talent-evaluate very well. 

3.  While a lot of the early decisions worked really well, one of the significant mistakes was the talent-evaluation error in their conviction that Ian Stewart coming off a .156 batting-average in Colorado was a high-end talent and a great buy-low candidate.  They traded not only Tyler Colvin but also DJ LeMahieu for him.  LeMahieu has since won a bunch of gold gloves at 2B, and is already at 3.8 WAR (ESPN numbers) this year. 
*His offense has (rightfully) tended to be discredited in Colorado, but this year he's demonstrating that he wasn't really just a Coors fluke.  He's got a .904 OPS in New York, too, and at a very reasonable salary with excellent defense.   
*The discussion about wanting a 2B is what brought LeMahieu back to mind.  Wouldn't it be nice to have him right now, instead of Descalzo and Russell? 
*I also wonder whether, back in 2014 when Samardzija was a super valuable trade piece, whether they might have traded him for something other than Russell, had they already had LeMahieu at 2B, with Castro and Baez for SS and middle-infield depth?  Russell had a big game in the World Series, and as reb notes we'll always have Paris, so perhaps any adjustment of the past would have been regrettable.  But it's interesting to imagine having LeMahieu right now instead of Russell; plus perhaps also having whatever lasting value they might have acquired for Samardzija, instead of just Russell?

Cubs might have a really different look now.  Funny to imagine the revisionist history flow, of course.  Perhaps they'd have had some other pitching talent, and wouldn't have needed to go after Chatwood and Darvish?  Maybe they'd have picked up an outfielder who was good, and wouldn't have been so prioritized on Hewyard?  Obviously totally useless to imagine, but kinda fun to wonder, too!  Big-process is great, but a lot really comes down to individual decisions that work or don't.  How much of the great Cardinals history would have been different had not some scout recommended Pujols?  Each case-by-case decision impacts a lot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 28, 2019, 11:00:09 am
That's an interesting post, Craig.  While I agree so much of success in MLB (and life) is situational, there are SO many intervening factors leading to the unpredictable nature of baseball performance, such as injuries (e.g. Bryant last season), talent development (e.g. Arrieta, LaStella) and personal issues that derail players (e.g. Zobrist, Russell). 

Player acquisition and talent development and injury avoidance and personal issues ALL greatly impact results and outcomes and they are ALL rather unpredictable variables. Cubs scout character and history as much as any team, yet predictions about the future development of human beings is still inexact.

On the other hand, executing a smart, solid decision-making process is predictable (tho' the outcomes may not be).  Is the process sound?  Is it being executed well?  Can it enable a team to overhaul its personnel or whatever else is necessary to make it to the top? (e.g. Astros, Cubs)
I'd personally give Cubs leadership close to the same grade as most other good front offices on the situational stuff.  We've made some good moves and some not-so-good moves. 
However, I'd give our front office an A+ for their process, hard work, smarts and everything else they have had a chance to control! 

And, as a result in my opinion, our Cubs achieved the Holy Grail in professional sports AND have delivered "sustained success" for the past few years...that's 100% unprecedented in any of our lifetimes as Cub fans!

Who the heck knows about this season?  We may not take off and again be on the outside looking in at playoff time.  MLB is rather unpredictable that way.  Yet I'm sanguine in the knowledge that our front office will make consistently reasonable moves, aligned with a "smart" process...that may or may not be enough. 

The nature of MLB is often frustrating, certainly to me.  However, I'll forever be grateful for Theo et al and Tom Ricketts.  Without this leadership group, I'd say there would be virtually ZERO chance we would have ever scaled the mountain by now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 28, 2019, 11:18:00 am
My last post was too vague about the outcomes produced by the front office following their very deliberate process, as they said they would...here are three:

* Control the strike zone - Cubs have come a VERY long way under this leadership group...not perfect, of course, but think about Cub teams BEFORE Theo et al (the Cub Way isn't executed perfectly, but there's certainly been a HUGE change in the organizational mindset following this leadership group)

* Improve scouting and development - a lot of the moves haven't worked out, but Theo/Jed's very deliberate process overhauled what we had and produced well enough to help win it all once...impossible without the very deliberate overhaul!

* Build Team orientation and leadership - Theo/Jed were the only team that went after Maddon...he may be losing the team in his 5th season, but he's certainly been the best leader I've ever seen as a Cub manager...and Rizzo (who Cubs also targeted and brought in early) is the best on-field leader I've ever seen in a Cub uniform!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 11:30:24 am
3.  While a lot of the early decisions worked really well, one of the significant mistakes was the talent-evaluation error in their conviction that Ian Stewart coming off a .156 batting-average in Colorado was a high-end talent and a great buy-low candidate.  They traded not only Tyler Colvin but also DJ LeMahieu for him.  LeMahieu has since won a bunch of gold gloves at 2B, and is already at 3.8 WAR (ESPN numbers) this year. 
*His offense has (rightfully) tended to be discredited in Colorado, but this year he's demonstrating that he wasn't really just a Coors fluke.  He's got a .904 OPS in New York, too, and at a very reasonable salary with excellent defense.   
*The discussion about wanting a 2B is what brought LeMahieu back to mind.  Wouldn't it be nice to have him right now, instead of Descalzo and Russell? 
*I also wonder whether, back in 2014 when Samardzija was a super valuable trade piece, whether they might have traded him for something other than Russell, had they already had LeMahieu at 2B, with Castro and Baez for SS and middle-infield depth?  Russell had a big game in the World Series, and as reb notes we'll always have Paris, so perhaps any adjustment of the past would have been regrettable.  But it's interesting to imagine having LeMahieu right now instead of Russell; plus perhaps also having whatever lasting value they might have acquired for Samardzija, instead of just Russell?

What if I told you that for LH hitters Yankee stadium is more HR friendly than Coors?  I still think the Cubs would have went for the best prospect for Samardzija and that was Russell by a longgggggggggg shot.  LeMahieu was a bad trade no doubt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 12:18:51 pm
LeMahieu was a bad trade no doubt.


Bad is an understatement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 28, 2019, 12:37:26 pm
Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Tyler Colvin to the Colorado Rockies for Casey Weathers (minors) and Ian Stewart.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 28, 2019, 12:39:46 pm
Another one:

Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 1st round (48th pick) of the 2007 amateur draft. Player signed June 24, 2007.

July 8, 2008: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson to the Oakland Athletics for Chad Gaudin and Rich Harden.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 12:48:14 pm
^^That was Josh Donaldson. But at least Harden was terrific for 12 starts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 01:11:12 pm
Here's one.

Jake Arrieta (18.2 fWAR) and Pedro Strop (5.6 fWAR) for 1/2 season of Scott Feldman.

That is almost 9.9 fWAR more than what LeMahieu has accumulated in his 9 years in the majors.

Another one:

Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 1st round (48th pick) of the 2007 amateur draft. Player signed June 24, 2007.

July 8, 2008: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson to the Oakland Athletics for Chad Gaudin and Rich Harden.

If the Cubs only new that a guy hitting .217/.276/.349 would break out when he was 28.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 28, 2019, 01:18:21 pm
What if I told you that for LH hitters Yankee stadium is more HR friendly than Coors? ....

Not sure Yankee stadium turns every lefty into a 3.8WAR-by-end-of-June and 139 OPS+ guy... 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 01:46:20 pm
It's probably the reason Gleyber's on pace for 38 homers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 28, 2019, 01:50:27 pm
Knowing what was known at the time, you trade 5 LeMahieus for an Addison Russell, and don’t think twice about it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on June 28, 2019, 02:10:52 pm
LeMahieu bats RH
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2019, 02:21:32 pm
Every organization has fans who can recite bad trades their team made. That’s because most every organization has a mixed record making trades or with good players who got away.

Fun to evaluate with 20-20 hindsight but a total waste of time and energy if you take it seriously or let it bother you.  It’s part of baseball. If hasn’t happened in your organization, then you’re not working hard enough trying to improve your club. Part of doing business. Just don’t do something that makes no sense at the time you did it. That does not apply to this Cubs leadership, period. That’s all I care about.

An example. Everybody remembers or has read about the Lou Brock for Damaged Goods Broglio trade fiasco back in 1964. But, a year earlier Cubs made a great trade with Cardinals for Larry Jackson and Lindy McDaniel—who were really good for Cubs—and then a few years later flipped Jackson for a young Fergie Jenkins and flipped McDaniel for Randy Hundley and Bill Hands—-latter guys all crucial players for a Cubs team that had not contended for 20 years. Taken together, a mixed bag at worst.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on June 28, 2019, 02:23:19 pm
LeMahieu bats RH

Good point.  :) 
OK, thanks, so then I'm not sure Yankee stadium turns every righty into a 3.8WAR-by-end-of-June and 139 OPS+ guy...  :)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 02:33:03 pm
Not sure Yankee stadium turns every lefty into a 3.8WAR-by-end-of-June and 139 OPS+ guy... 

Home .335/.402/.555 9HR wRC+ 152, .220 ISO
Away  .336/.363/.482 3 HR wRC+ 124, 146 ISO

The new ball, favorable park, .362 BABIP all help.  The guy is 30 years old, has a career .301/353/.415 slash line good for a career wRC+ 94.  He has 2 season with a fWAR above 2 counting this year, the same as Addison Russell who is 25.

DJ is slashing .798 against teams with WP >.500 and .992 against losing teams .  He's having a great year, put people would have wanted to upgrade on him well before his age 30 season.

Good catch on him hitting RH, for some reason I thought he was a lefty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 28, 2019, 02:43:41 pm
The LeMahieu saga is a lesson in the importance of simply being able to apply barrel to ball constantly.  Craig talks about this often.  Make solid contact and some of those balls are going to go for extra bases and even over the fence, essentially regardless of how scouts evaluate your "raw" power.

Ryan Harvey had tremendous "raw" power, but he couldn't hit.  Result?  Zero MLB HR (and zero MLB AB).

LeMahieu didn't scout for power, nor did he display any in his minor league career (nine career minor league HR).  Now he's on pace for a 24 HR season in the big leagues.

This is why I'm not too excited about Trent Giambrone.  Lots of power, great.  I'm afraid he can't hit.

Back in LeMahieu's prospect days, the common refrain was "no power, doesn't walk".  I don't doubt that that profile was a big factor in him being deemed expendable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 02:44:41 pm
It's probably the reason Gleyber's on pace for 38 homers.

Gleyber who is a great player and I was mad at the time of trade has 10 HR in 12 games against the Orioles.  in 62 games against everyone else he has 9.  He has 151 TB all year, 53 have come against the Orioles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on June 28, 2019, 02:46:50 pm
Good point about solid contact...part of the reason Hoerner is an exciting prospect and, though he's only in A-ball, so is Brennan Davis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 03:12:52 pm
DJ has a lower career ISO than Almora (.114 vs .127), despite playing in Coors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 28, 2019, 03:24:13 pm
The Harden/Donaldson trade is something a contending team should do without much thinking about it.  Just got to credit Donaldson for turning himself from a so-so Low-A prospect into an MVP caliber player. 

Although granted our Fleita led player development staff shouldn’t have fooled around with trying to make him a catcher in the first place.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 03:31:32 pm
Gleyber who is a great player and I was mad at the time of trade has 10 HR in 12 games against the Orioles.  in 62 games against everyone else he has 9.  He has 151 TB all year, 53 have come against the Orioles.

If you cut his homers against Baltimore down from 10 to 4 he's still on pace for 28 over 162 games.  He had a 32-homer pace during his rookie season. Either way, so what? Would you care if he hit 10 against Tampa?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 08:20:19 pm
Alzolay and Miguel Amaya named to the Futures Game rosters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 08:25:06 pm
If you cut his homers against Baltimore down from 10 to 4 he's still on pace for 28 over 162 games.  He had a 32-homer pace during his rookie season. Either way, so what? Would you care if he hit 10 against Tampa?

If Bryant destroyed a bad team and had a third of his production against them would you let it go. I think Torres is a fine player. I don’t really care how he does unless he is playing the Cubs in the World Series. Both teams got what they wanted out of the trade that is a good thing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2019, 08:25:29 pm
Alzolay and Miguel Amaya named to the Futures Game rosters.

Of course. This years rosters are chosen by alphabetical order.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 08:30:57 pm
Of course. This years rosters are chosen by alphabetical order.

It doesn't speak well of the system. Obviously, Alzolay was really good before the call-up. Amaya is hitting .200 with a sub .700 OPS. I suppose there is Hoerner but he's been a DL patient since being drafted.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2019, 08:43:02 pm
Average MLB OPS at 2B this season:  .715

Addison Russell OPS:  .732
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 28, 2019, 08:49:28 pm
And a gold glove.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 28, 2019, 09:02:23 pm
Russell's never won a gold glove.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 28, 2019, 09:18:50 pm
Fake news.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 28, 2019, 09:21:57 pm
After what the poor guy has been put through this year he deserves a pass.

Judge him next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on June 28, 2019, 09:44:38 pm
Bad news: Hamels left oblique strain, going to the IL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on June 28, 2019, 09:51:29 pm
Yeah that’s definitely no good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on June 28, 2019, 09:59:04 pm
Opportunity knocks for Alzolay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2019, 10:09:12 pm
Cargo was getting hugs as well.

So bringing up Underwood and Maples for tomorrow?  Send down Underwood Sunday and bring up Robel. For Hamels start you either send a reliever down and call up Rea/Mills or go with Chatwood/Montgomery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2019, 10:43:47 pm
Underwood pitched 2 innings tonight at Iowa.

So, not him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2019, 10:56:21 pm
I think that Barnette would be eligible to return early because of the pitcher IL move.

So, guessing Barnette and Maples.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 28, 2019, 11:51:39 pm
I would assume Chatwood and Alzolay are both full-time starters for now with Montgomery as the piggyback, though if he keeps pitching this poorly the IL seems a certainty at some point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 29, 2019, 12:03:34 am
Is Colin Rea on the 40 man?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 29, 2019, 12:11:14 am
It does look like CarGo may be gone.

Robel Garcia?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 29, 2019, 12:36:16 am
No official moves by Cubs, but expecting them to call up two arms Saturday. In clubhouse, veteran Carlos Gonzalez was gathered with some teammates. Received a few handshakes and hugs.--Bastian
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 29, 2019, 12:59:09 pm
Hamels to the 10-day IL, CarGo DFA, Wick and Maples up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 29, 2019, 04:22:29 pm
The Cubs want CarGo to stay and go to Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 29, 2019, 07:02:59 pm
Rubel Garcia not in the lineup tonight...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 29, 2019, 09:31:06 pm
Wonder if Toronto could be a potential trade partner.  They have some names that are interesting - Sogard at 2B.  Giles, maybe Mayza out of the pen, even Stroman as a SP option.  And they're certainly out of it.  Happ, Russell and Marquez for Sogard, Giles and Stroman?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 29, 2019, 09:43:50 pm
LOL, put yourself in the Toronto GM's shoes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 29, 2019, 10:06:09 pm
Sogard is 33 and having a career year, Stroman - well, he has value, but he's not an elite starter and a FA after next season.  Giles is a head case.  I don't think it's that far-fetched.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 29, 2019, 10:08:16 pm
Think again.  It's far fetched.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 29, 2019, 10:10:53 pm
Maybe a little.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on June 29, 2019, 10:15:30 pm
If we can pull that off, sign me up!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on June 29, 2019, 10:24:49 pm
Toronto isn't exactly a well-run franchise, no harm in trying.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on June 30, 2019, 01:51:15 pm
Hendricks is back already and scheduled to pitch in Pittsburgh.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on June 30, 2019, 02:03:53 pm
I assume Descalso’s bat is what has kept him around all this time...because his fielding sucks...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on June 30, 2019, 02:22:00 pm
I assume Descalso’s bat is what has kept him around all this time...because his fielding sucks...
He was the excuse to get rid of LaStella before he embarrassed us with his lack of power.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on June 30, 2019, 07:01:09 pm
The Cubs should have known better.  Everyone on this board was angry when they let LaStella go.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on June 30, 2019, 07:23:55 pm
I never liked the Descalso signing.

He had always sucked before so why would he change just because we signed him?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 01, 2019, 10:50:18 am
Tony Barnette was apparently upset that he wasn't recalled when Hamels went on the IL and has left the I-Cubs.  The Cubs have placed him on the restricted list and now have 2 empty 40 man spots.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/07/01/cubs-gain-extra-40-man-spot-by-placing-tony-barnette-on-restricted-list-reportedly-for-going-awol/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 01, 2019, 11:06:09 pm
No surprise, Jed Hoyer reiterated offensive depth and left handed relief are July needs: "We have plenty of assets other teams have asked about."

"We haven't played well enough to rule anything out."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2019, 12:51:04 am
It may not be totally preposterous to wonder if Maddon will last the season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 02, 2019, 01:02:16 am
CarGo has been outrighted to Iowa, so evidently he decided to accept the outright and forego free agency.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on July 02, 2019, 03:06:34 am
Pretty amazing a player who’s had as accomplished career as CarGo would willingly go to Iowa indefinitely.  He may not have much left, but he seems to be a terrific guy and influence to have in the organization regardless.  Hopefully he can find his stroke there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2019, 07:49:47 am
I'm not suggesting anything definitively causal here, just throwing it out there, but...  Is it possibly not a complete coincidence that the Cubs were going gangbusters when Russell was brought back to the team, and have seemed to drop into a funk since?  Maybe his return was not universally well-received in the clubhouse, and it's had an impact on morale.  There are other simpler explanations, but the timing is at least interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 02, 2019, 08:29:48 am
Counterpoint the 2016 Cubs won the World Series with Chapman, who likely did worse things to his wife/girlfriend. The 2016 Cubs struggled at the same time during the their season and had the second best record in the NL to the Giants heading into All-Star break. Slumps happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 02, 2019, 09:12:49 am
Watching Russell in the dugout with his teammates, celebrating big hits of teammates, I  have seen zero evidence that he's any distraction.  No writer or player interview have expressed any such problem.  Russell has also been on the team during winning stretches but that doesn't suit the negative narrative.   Personally I don't think he's performing well enough to be surprised by DFA or trade, but I think "being a cancer" is contrived.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2019, 09:42:55 am
I don’t think Chapman is a good comparison, since that team was a guided missile from opening day and everyone knew Chapman was there for one reason, then he’d be gone.

Russell has certainly been in the team for good stretches, but not really since all the ugliness came to the surface.  Maybe there really is no connection, and his teammates are fine with what he did. Maybe there’s a combination of things wrong, and he’s a small part of it. But something is clearly broken here, and waiting for a regression to the mean for certain players probably isn’t a good plan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 02, 2019, 10:18:01 am
At the time of the trade the Cubs where 59-39.  The Giants and Nationals where 1.5 games behind the Cubs for the best record in the NL.  The Cubs finished 2016 with an 8 game lead on the Nationals for the best record in the NL.  From June 20 to the time of the trade the Cubs went 11-21.  I guess the guidance systems might have been a bit off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 02, 2019, 01:47:03 pm
That's a good recall, Blue.  They had a slump there, and the thinning of the bullpen was a part of it and was a real concern going forward. 

Obviously it remained a concern right through the World Series, thus Maddon using Chapman, to excess, in the final games. 

That ended up being a team of destiny, in retrospect.  But I don't think that was evident, in advance, during any of the Giants, Dodgers, or Indians series. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 02, 2019, 02:36:54 pm
The 2017 Astros went 12-20 from July 29 to August 30.  Every team, even really good teams, has period where they play like horse ****.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 02, 2019, 02:37:06 pm
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs  34s34 seconds ago
The #Cubs today activated RHP Kyle Hendricks off of the 10-day IL and recalled LHP Randy Rosario from @IowaCubs.

RHPs Adbert Alzolay and Rowan Wick were optioned to Triple-A.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 02, 2019, 03:04:45 pm
The 2017 Astros finished 40 games over .500. The Cubs will have to go 56-21 to reach that mark. The Cubs have been slightly better than mediocre overall. That Astros team was, er, not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 02, 2019, 04:30:48 pm
Yes, every team has some slumps.  And at the time, you never know really going forwards.  That Astros team and the 16 Cubs, they were really good, but they had a slump, but they rebounded. 

This year's Cubs?  I don't know.  Maybe they've just come off a slump, and will be 15-games-over-.500 during the second half.  Or maybe it's kind of a .500-ish team who went 6-1 against Miami early?    Or maybe now with well-used veterans Lester and Quintana lacking April velocity, maybe playing even .500 is going to be unrealistic during the second half? 

As Theo discussed in spring training, he figured the strength of the team was going to be the rotation.  It's possible that a rotation with so many heavily used veterans, that winning consistently on veteran craft with dead arms may get tougher and tougher?  Or maybe dead arms come and go, but the veteran craft is exactly what carries them through for the long haul, and they'll outlast the division in the end? 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 02, 2019, 04:33:58 pm
So like when the Cubs went 25-8 earlier this year?

The Cubs won't like reach a win total like the Astros or 2016 Cubs just because the division is has solid team from top to bottom.  Every team has a bad team or multiple bad teams to rack up wins against.  The last place Reds have the 11th best run differential in baseball.

But yeah the Cubs suck even though they have the 2nd best run differential in the National league and 7th in baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 02, 2019, 04:38:50 pm
Or maybe it's kind of a .500-ish team who went 6-1 against Miami early?   

The Brewers would kill for that.  They went 3-6 against the Marlins, Giants and Mariners. 

Beating up on bad teams is what good teams do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2019, 04:46:58 pm
Patrick Mooney

Verified account
 
@PJ_Mooney
 4m4 minutes ago
More
Joe Maddon describes the MRI/diagnosis of Cole Hamels’ oblique injury as “not awful.”

“We were encouraged by the results,” Maddon said. “We still don’t have any timetable, but he’s feeling a lot better more quickly than we anticipated. The results were not overtly negative.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 02, 2019, 05:39:04 pm
Nobody said the Cubs suck so let's quit with the strawmen.

The notion that the division is what's holding them back from being anything close to elite is not bared out by the facts. The Cubs are 14-14 against the Central. They are still just 31-26 against everyone else. That is an 88-win pace against teams--by your own logic--that the Cubs should be beating up on.

Yes, there are no Orioles or Royals in the division. There are also no Dodgers, Yankees, or Astros to contend with either. In fact, if one looks at records, the NL West is very similar to the NL Central with one exception: the Dodgers manage to win at an elite level. Likewise, the AL West appears better than the NL Central top to bottom yet it hasn't prevented Houston from being 21 over .500 despite three MVP candidates being out half the year.

The NL Central has two teams with positive run differentials and the team in 1st has a negative one, but we're supposed to believe it's those teams that are understandably keeping the Cubs from matching their payroll and on-paper talent level.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 02, 2019, 05:39:06 pm
Patrick Mooney

Verified account
 
@PJ_Mooney
 4m4 minutes ago
More
Joe Maddon describes the MRI/diagnosis of Cole Hamels’ oblique injury as “not awful.”

“We were encouraged by the results,” Maddon said. “We still don’t have any timetable, but he’s feeling a lot better more quickly than we anticipated. The results were not overtly negative.”
Rub some dirt on it.   Get your ass on the mound.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 02, 2019, 05:41:49 pm
I heard Maddon say last night they thought Alzolay was tipping his pitches.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 02, 2019, 06:05:09 pm
Joe Maddon held his annual midseason team meeting before tonight's game at PNC Park: "I wasn't there talking numbers and cut-offs and relays and more batting practice. I was talking about some concepts that I think are important that we may have gotten away from."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robert L on July 02, 2019, 10:22:11 pm
time to call Joe Girardi
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 02, 2019, 10:58:04 pm
Joe Maddon held his annual midseason team meeting before tonight's game at PNC Park: "I wasn't there talking numbers and cut-offs and relays and more batting practice. I was talking about some concepts that I think are important that we may have gotten away from."

I wonder what the concepts were? 

One concept that they have digested, over the season, is management's emphasis on hitting opposite field.  I think there was a reference made by the TV guys a few days back that the Cubs led the league, I think by a lot, in opposite field hits.  I assume that has to apply for HR's as well. 

I wonder if Maddon thinks they've been drifting from that recently, and have been pulling too much?  Or perhaps the converse, and he thinks they aren't using the whole field enough and are overly committed to opposite field hitting?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 02, 2019, 11:05:51 pm
The concepts that concern me are the ones Theo spoke about last October when he insinuated very clearly that the kind of baseball the Cubs played last season, especially in September was not acceptable and that players would be held accountable to play to their abilities.  Well, Theo, this team seems to be playing the same as most of last season...

Credibility is on the line.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2019, 11:14:02 pm
The concepts that concern me are the ones Theo spoke about last October when he insinuated very clearly that the kind of baseball the Cubs played last season, especially in September was not acceptable and that players would be held accountable to play to their abilities.  Well, Theo, this team seems to be playing the same as most of last season...

Credibility is on the line.

No one comes off looking good in all this.  Theo is still playing the guys who he said would be held accountable, and Joe is unable to get them to perform as they should be performing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 03, 2019, 08:32:06 am
Interesting site.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 03, 2019, 08:40:01 am
Hendricks has the most trade value of any Cub?  "Interesting" is one word for it, I guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 03, 2019, 09:39:57 am
It is a function of years of control.  4.7 years vs 2.7 for Rizzo and Bryant and that is only at the medium value projection.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on July 03, 2019, 10:42:31 am
That's the same math that makes Harrison bader worth 76% of Whitfield...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 03, 2019, 11:00:40 am
Or trading an All Star for two AAAA players is a win cuz you got two players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 03, 2019, 01:04:15 pm
I think the Cubs get disinterested too easily during the regular season.  It's a long season and it's hard to maintain focus and peak performance consistently.  Especially so when them team has almost no days off.  This version of the Cubs is not talented enough to coast.  They need to be engaged.  In recent years, their improved play in the second half is evidence of this.

The positive side is that they have seemed disinterested for much of the season yet are in a good position to make the post season if they pick up their play in the second half.  Perhaps infuse one more bat and they could still be a force to be reckoned with.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 03, 2019, 02:45:08 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  25m25 minutes ago

Theo announces on @670TheScore that Dillon Maples optioned to Iowa, INF Robel Garcia promoted.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 03, 2019, 02:47:17 pm
Garcia background

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/cubs-promote-robel-garcia-prospect-italy.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 03, 2019, 06:13:27 pm
Carlos Gonazalez has cleared waivers and elected free agency.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on July 03, 2019, 07:22:52 pm
Yeah I was shocked that a guy like him would want to stay in Iowa indefinitely.  Hopefully he can find another team that’ll give him an opportunity.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 03, 2019, 07:47:54 pm
There's a glut of washed-up CarGo's on the FA market currently.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 04, 2019, 12:26:01 pm
Cubs division is in kind of an awesome competitive spot, with all five teams within 4.5 games on 4th of July.  Division as a whole is 3 games over .500.  .500 median, best 5 over, worst 4 under, really tight statistical grouping. 

The last place Reds in some ways almost look like they might have as good a chance as any to be the best team going forward, given the young pitching talent they have. 

Will be interesting to see how aggressive and effective Reds are in July trades. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 04, 2019, 01:09:04 pm
Paul Sullivan covers David Kaplan going on a tirade

Just who is being quoted is not always clear - Epstein, Kaplan, or Sullivan

Quote
Band-aid solutions, such as dealing Kyle Schwarber or demoting outfielder Ian Happ, won’t really change things. The only way to send a message to this team is to trade one of its stars: Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras or Jon Lester.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-cubs-theo-epstein-reckoning-20190704-nn4hhkbkazhbrn2tf2zu7yuizm-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 04, 2019, 01:20:19 pm
https://theathletic.com/1062885/2019/07/04/theo-epstein-leaves-no-doubt-big-changes-coming-if-cubs-dont-turn-it-around-soon/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 04, 2019, 01:20:45 pm
That Kaplan article summarizes the discussion on this board the past week.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 04, 2019, 01:23:35 pm
https://theathletic.com/1062885/2019/07/04/theo-epstein-leaves-no-doubt-big-changes-coming-if-cubs-dont-turn-it-around-soon/

That article seems to say that we would be sellers at the deadline.   I don't think that at all.   Changes, yes, sell off, no.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 04, 2019, 02:34:49 pm
Of course, it is always possible that some team makes an offer that knocks your socks off, in which case, I would trade anyone.  But the only "top" player I would consider trading at this point would be Lester, and then only if we could get an excellent "almost MLB ready" pitcher, and a good prospect lower in the minors.

Making changes for change sake seldom works out well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 04, 2019, 02:57:31 pm
Quote
"Band-aid solutions, such as dealing Kyle Schwarber or demoting outfielder Ian Happ, won’t really change things. The only way to send a message to this team is to trade one of its stars: Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras or Jon Lester."


PlayTwo and I discussed this earlier.  But I think the common narrative, and I think Theo's viewpoint since 2016, is that the talent he, HOyer, and McLeod have assembled is championship-level.  If they aren't playing championship-level baseball, the narrative assumes they are underachieving.  This was Theo's approach last winter: the guys have the talent, they don't play with enough urgency, they don't try hard enough.


This seems to be the (Kaplan?) perception, too:  the way to improve the team is to send them messages and motivate them harder. 


My perspective is that it's less about a lack of motivation or underachievement, and more about talent. 


Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod haven't brought much talent in for the last four years. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 04, 2019, 04:01:56 pm
Of course, it is always possible that some team makes an offer that knocks your socks off, in which case, I would trade anyone.  But the only "top" player I would consider trading at this point would be Lester, and then only if we could get an excellent "almost MLB ready" pitcher, and a good prospect lower in the minors.

Making changes for change sake seldom works out well.
.
I doubt Lester has trade value.  The only starter with improvement trade value is Quintana because of his contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 04, 2019, 04:06:51 pm
That article seems to say that we would be sellers at the deadline.   I don't think that at all.   Changes, yes, sell off, no.

That's what Mooney is saying, yes. This kind of underachievement and payroll after last year's blown lead in September probably doesn't sit well with the front office. Then again, they are responsible for the roster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 04, 2019, 04:08:23 pm


Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod haven't brought much talent in for the last four years. 
.
The talent they had they traded away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 04, 2019, 04:28:21 pm
Theo isn't going to fire himself.  So if he really is going to do something, it's either trade major pieces off the roster or fire the manager.  The problem is he's huffed and puffed about this for so long and done nothing that it's hard to take him seriously.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 04, 2019, 06:11:30 pm
Im a Cub fan. Im not a fan of any particular player so if it's in our best interest to move one or fire a manger then so be it but for the life of me I just cant see firing Joe Maddon.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 04, 2019, 06:18:49 pm
What to do with Yu?

Not sure Cubs should keep trotting him out there each
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 04, 2019, 06:37:06 pm
It's certainly been a disappointing season so far! But we're tied for 1st in the NLC.

Years ago, one of my buds who's a HUGE Cards fan whined all season long about how crappy the Birds were...and he kept it up until the regular season ended and the Cards finished at an even .500.  VERY un-Cardinal!

Of course, they got in the playoffs and won the World Series.

MLB can be very, very strange!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 04, 2019, 06:49:17 pm
I do find the panic around here a bit premature.

Shake things up a bit fine but not because of a few bad weeks.

Because its the smart long term move.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 04, 2019, 06:54:47 pm
And yes I was the first one here to mention Robel Garcia.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on July 04, 2019, 07:39:38 pm
What to do with Yu?

Not sure Cubs should keep trotting him out there each

Keep starting him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 04, 2019, 08:02:51 pm
Keep starting him.

I don't know why it's even a question.  Darvish had a BAA under .200, WHIP under 1 and .646 OPS against in June.  He certainly pitched well enough to win yesterday.  The bottom line results aren't there (mostly because of HR) but the peripherals suggest he's close to putting it together.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 04, 2019, 08:09:48 pm
I believed in Tyler Houston back in the day too.

That dont mean I was right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 06, 2019, 11:41:04 pm
I find it a little surprising to report this, but as disappointing as Yu Darvish has been, it's not at all clear that Jake Arrieta would have been a better option.

Darvish: ERA 5.01, IP 97, SO 111, WHIP 1.340 (32 years old)

Arrieta: ERA 4.43, IP 103.2, SO 81, WHIP 1.418 (33 years old)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 07, 2019, 08:15:07 am
What's so weird is that Yu's stuff still looks great!  It seems like it's always a bad pitch (gopher ball) here or there, a tough break that he can't overcome or he pitches well and the Cubs can't give him any breathing room.

Yu almost feels like the anti-Lester to me.  When Lester's back is against the wall and it seems like there's no way he can get it done, he just seems to compete his ass off and find a way.  Not so much with Yu...but maybe the rest of the way...get on a run!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 07, 2019, 10:27:07 am
I don't mean to be harsh on Yu...the guy seems to REALLY be trying and has great stuff!  My comment was more about Lester is a unicorn!  He's such a TERRIFIC competitor, that he just seems to find ways to fix his problems and beat hitters (even though Little Leaguers have better pickoff moves)!

Obviously, Hendricks is also a fabulous competitor, who picks up hitter tendencies as well or better than anyone!  Hendricks is the payback to Cub fans for losing Maddux in free agency thanks to idiotic Larry Himes.

Like Maddux, Hendricks speeds up and slows down hitters' bats like a magician.  He may get bombed today (sure hope he's 100% healthy), but when he's been "on," he's been such a treat to watch...for Cub fans!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 07, 2019, 12:16:48 pm
Cubs president Theo Epstein said Saturday of Ben Zobrist that "we expect him back later in the year."
"We have a sort of soft understanding of what that might be, but I don’t want to put a timetable on it or overly rely on it either," Epstein added. "We’re all looking forward to having him back if that’s able to happen." It's been reported previously that if Zobrist did return, it likely wouldn't be until September. He's been away from the club since early May while he goes through a divorce.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 07, 2019, 03:26:51 pm
How old are Zobrist's youngest kids?  Are they all in school?  I've kind of wondered if he'd want to be taking care of the kids during the summer, and then coming back once they've got school to go to and keep them occupied for the most part? 

With all respect to Zobrist, I think the Cubs issues are more about talent then about veteran wisdom.  Zobrist the hitter is old and washed up anyway.  Like so many of the Cubs last year, he had a huge over-achievement season.  But I don't thnk he would be likely to help the lineup this year, even if he does get a few AB's. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 07, 2019, 04:26:15 pm
Think that Zobrist’s kids are 10, 7, 3.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 07, 2019, 04:28:50 pm
Brewers lose.

Cubs go into break with 1/2 game lead—-kind of amazing considering recent struggles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 07, 2019, 07:03:53 pm
1st place at the break and ready to fire the manager and trade all the vets.

This team will make a move at the deadline and be pennant contenders once again.

I have no doubt.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 07, 2019, 07:28:44 pm
Kris Bryant is 4th in NL in fWAR at the break. (If include pitchers, Scherzer is #2 at 5.5 fWAR).

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=33&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=21,d
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 07, 2019, 08:58:53 pm
Set aside the question of whether you believe Theo should be interested in Girardi.  If you suppose that he is, that would be an incentive to fire Maddon now, because if he waits Girardi is probably going to end up with the Mets.  I think ideally Theo would rather wait and just let the season play out knowing Maddon is gone this winter, but his thinking on Girardi may play into the timetable.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 07, 2019, 09:25:00 pm
No way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 07, 2019, 09:44:46 pm
Makes no difference.  In 3 years, the same guys will be advocating getting rid of Girardi.  Maddon didn't win the World Series for the Cubs, and he is not losing it for them now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 07, 2019, 09:56:03 pm
Set aside the question of whether you believe Theo should be interested in Girardi.  If you suppose that he is, that would be an incentive to fire Maddon now, because if he waits Girardi is probably going to end up with the Mets.  I think ideally Theo would rather wait and just let the season play out knowing Maddon is gone this winter, but his thinking on Girardi may play into the timetable.

Is there any evidence that Theo has any interest whatsoever in Girardi?  I would be very surprised by that - his old school approach doesn't seem to fit at all with Theo's philosophy.  What am I missing?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 07, 2019, 10:06:57 pm
If the Cubs fire Maddon, it's because the front office wants someone they have more control over. They're not hiring a guy like Girardi who will be even more committed to doing things his own way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 07, 2019, 10:41:34 pm
I think they're bringing Dusty back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 07, 2019, 11:15:25 pm
Cubs go into break with 1/2 game lead—-kind of amazing considering recent struggles.

"Recent." They hit their season high of 11 games over .500 for the first time on May 14, and they've been 7 games under in the following (almost) two months. And they played **** baseball that didn't show up in the record for about 10 days before that high point. This isn't recent bad performance...they're just not that good of a team.

The NL Central is a "competitive division" only because all teams (including the Cubs) are mediocre at best.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 07, 2019, 11:20:22 pm
I don't know of any direct evidence Theo is considering Girardi (or what skeptics would even consider direct evidence).  There has been a ton of third-party speculation (including this week) to that effect, including that Girardi turned down offers to manage in '18 specifically because he was waiting on the Cubs.  Whether any of that smoke indicates fire, who knows.

To BR's point, I'm not sure Theo's history indicates that he prioritizes having a manager he can dominate - he's hired a lot of strong personalities, and had success doing so.  If he is considering Girardi I would imagine part of the rationale is that he's pretty much a 180 turn from Maddon stylistically.  If he wants a culture change in the clubhouse, Girardi would certainly be that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 07, 2019, 11:26:04 pm
The Cubs are 5 1/2 games behind the next worst division leader. They're barely holding onto first place with a record that would barely be a wild card contender if they were in any other division in MLB.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 07, 2019, 11:29:24 pm
The NL West is the only other division where the Cubs would even be in second place.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 07, 2019, 11:46:06 pm
The NL West is the only other division where the Cubs would even be in second place.

And yet, win the division and you get into a series where everybody starts with 0 wins.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think this is a great team by any stretch.  But if Hamels came back, Darvish got his HRs down, and you had say Morrow and Doolittle setting up vintage Kimbrel and Cishek for the 6th and 7th, they're not a team I would especially want to face in a short series.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 07, 2019, 11:55:25 pm
if Hamels came back, Darvish got his HRs down, and you had say Morrow and Doolittle setting up vintage Kimbrel and Cishek for the 6th and 7th, they're not a team I would especially want to face in a short series.

If...

That's all this team has. If multiple unlikely things happen, they could be a contender.

This team has 4 hitters and a bunch of mid-rotation starters. Their upside is a fluky 2006 Cardinals-like run...win a bad division, then have several players have a good month.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 08, 2019, 12:01:41 am
Yes, it's a lot of ifs.  Those ifs are what separates us from the Dodgers.  But even if collectively they're a long shot, individually none of them is outlandish.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 08, 2019, 03:58:49 am
If Cubs were playing up to their Pythagorian, Cubs would be on a 91 win pace....right now.

2017 club won 92 and made it to NLCS.

Anybody who tells you that they know what’s in store for remainder of this season or that Cubs are going to be this or that kind of team by season’s end is just blowing smoke. You’re just guessing or pontificating, or both.

I have no idea what is going to happen nor does anybody else. Pretty sure that Dodgers probably are/will be best team in NL by season end...and may well get knocked out in post-season—-lots of baseball history says could be. Who knows.

Part of the fun of baseball is the unpredictability and if you let a down period for a should-be-91-win-club take the fun away, you are missing part of what the game is about. Even worse is thinking you know what will happen.

You don’t.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 08, 2019, 08:13:05 am
There's difference between saying that the Cubs have played like a mediocre team and that they will continue to play like a mediocre team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 08, 2019, 09:15:31 am
Reb is so correct talking about the unpredictable nature of MLB and, perhaps, even more so with young players Cubs have (e.g. Schwarber), who may or may not play better in the 2nd half (or ever)...it's so unpredictable.

Scouts talk about MLB hitters need seasoning at the MLB level and often talk about 1,200 or 1,500 ABs before they can see everything and flash their true ability.  Some guys have really taken off this year (e.g. Josh Bell, Joey Gallo, James McCann)...here are some of their stats:

Bell, age 27 in August...career OPS in 3 seasons before '19 = 109; this year = 164; he had 1,200+ ABs going into this year.

Gallo, age 25, career OPS before this season = 109; this year = 170; he had 1,250+ ABs entering this season.

McCann, age 29, career OPS entering this year = 76; this year = 134; he had 1,500+ ABs going into this one.

Who the heck knows about some of our young guys (e.g. Schwarber)?  Some likely will take off with more seasoning and some probably won't.  Impossible to know.  Just like what will happen for our guys (at the plate OR on the mound) in the 2nd half.  It's very frustrating, but it certainly keeps fans as we are engaged.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 08, 2019, 10:18:10 am
This team has 4 hitters and a bunch of mid-rotation starters. Their upside is a fluky 2006 Cardinals-like run...win a bad division, then have several players have a good month.

Cubs NP have a wRC+ of 111.  6th best in baseball.  They must have an amazing 4 hitters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 08, 2019, 06:29:25 pm
Some chatter that David Peralta could be on the Cubs’ radar.  Big health concerns there but if they’re confident he’s not damaged goods, he would be an offense upgrade against RHP.  He makes Heyward a full-time CF but as bad as Almora has been, he probably already is anyway.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 08, 2019, 06:57:09 pm
Well, trading Almora for David Peralta would be quite a Nowacrat move (yet Theo does seem rather impatient these days).

Obviously, Peralta is fully developed at age 31 and, if healthy, a very solid hitter and player.  Of course, when he was Almora's age, he was in A ball part of the season.

MLB-level hitters usually take time to develop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 08, 2019, 07:19:41 pm
I would be more confident in Almora developing as a hitter if he'd ever been a good hitter in the high minors.

I don't necessarily think Almora would be going the other way in a Peralta deal, and I don't know if AZ would even want him.  His skill set has little overlap with Perlata and he'd still have a role for the Cubs even after such an acquisition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on July 08, 2019, 08:01:13 pm
I'd be fine trading Almora for Peralta if he's healthy.  Peralta is a damn good hitter, and sooner or later, a guy like Almora has to produce or we need to turn him into someone who will if we can.


The time to wait on development for some of these guys is over if we're able to get a genuinely good player in return.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 08, 2019, 08:12:51 pm
Can’t imagine that the Diamondbacks have any interest in Almora. He hasn’t hit while playing full time since 2013. He only has trade value in the minds of Cubs fans.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 08, 2019, 08:56:55 pm
I think he has some modest trade value, but I doubt the D-backs would be interested.  Happ might be a better starting point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 08, 2019, 09:14:57 pm
Almora has trade value like Steve Cishek has trade value. Sure, he'd get something...but it's going to be either a low ceiling prospect or a low minors lottery ticket. He's not getting a good MLB hitter like Peralta.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 08, 2019, 10:53:33 pm
I dunno. Peralta is a good hitter, not great. He’s also a so-so defender and major injury risk.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 08, 2019, 11:06:35 pm
No interest in trading 3+ years of Almora (or Happ) for 1+ year of Peralta.

Way too much for a corner OFer who basically plays same position as Schwarber. For a lesser value in exchange, sure, Peralta as a depth guy, I could see that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 08, 2019, 11:32:21 pm
Cubs fans just can't accept that Almora isn't good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 09, 2019, 12:49:10 am
I don’t know if Almora is going to be a good player or not but he’s the only true CFer on the club, whereas Cubs already have two corner-OF regulars and other guys (Bryant, Contreras, maybe Zobrist) who can play OF corner. Almora plays almost every game when Cubs get a lead into late innings, because of defense.

Yes, Cubs need another bat but foolish to do that mid-season at the expense of your only true CFer. Not making any projection about Almora, good or bad. I will leave that to those here who claim to have that crystal ball and can see the future.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 09, 2019, 07:30:52 am
The DBacks are only 1.5 games out of the wild card, there isn’t a guarantee that the will sell off. The second problem is Peralta has a shoulder injury that has required 2 DL stints. Even if the shoulder heals up and allows him to play, he’s been below league average on offense since the injury and he won’t have much time to prove he’s healthy and productive before the trade deadline. He’d Mostly be a guy for next year with any production this year being a bonus. Go get Castellanos instead.

Plus with Marte in CF, Almora wouldn’t be the guy the DBacks want.

With the Dodgers rolling out 2-3 lefties in their rotation Peralta is kinda useless in a playoff series against them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 10, 2019, 08:34:25 am
There are other ways of shaking up a team other than a big trade.  One, of course, is to fire managers and/or coaches.  Another is from within the team itself.   When Bryant first came up, he was used not just in left or right, but also center.  I don't recall him being a total disaster there.  Contreras first came up as a 3B.  Using Contreras now and then at 3B along with LF or RF, puts Caratini's bat in the lineup more often.  Bryant to CF gives you lots of lineup options.  Just thinking out of the box.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 10, 2019, 09:07:07 am
From Sharma, Kris Bryant on Kris Bryant.

https://theathletic.com/1069788/2019/07/10/honestly-im-pissed-kris-bryant-isnt-satisfied-with-himself-so-hes-ok-with-your-criticism/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on July 10, 2019, 10:42:35 am
The Todd Ricketts property tax fraud case seems pretty on brand for that family.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 10, 2019, 12:09:18 pm
Jack, has a property tax fraud case been brought against the Ricketts family? 

If so, I've not heard of it, but I can't say I've been tracking this story.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on July 10, 2019, 12:15:48 pm
No charges have been filed.  He'll first claim it was an error by the government and his lawyers.  but, it is clear that his reps took deliberate steps to misrepresent his property in order to get a lower assessment and tax bill.   he's got the right job as a trump guy, that's for sure.  Two peas in a pod.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 10, 2019, 01:36:57 pm
That does sound like the Trump Playbook.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 10, 2019, 01:43:38 pm
Ben & Jack

The reviews of this hilarious/sad book will convince you that it is required reading even if you don't play golf:

https://www.amazon.com/Commander-Cheat-Golf-Explains-Trump/dp/0316528080/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Commander+IN+Cheat&qid=1562784013&s=books&sr=1-1
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 10, 2019, 02:00:49 pm
Can there be a Ricketts suck forum for the people that want to complain about it. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/investigations/ct-todd-ricketts-wilmette-property-taxes-20190709-c335ggdjvjbvposhwd3f77gwxa-story.html

The county assessor seems to be a mess and the attorney they hired to due his property tax appeal would seem to have more exposure than Ricketts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 10, 2019, 02:33:51 pm
Can there be a Ricketts suck forum for the people that want to complain about it. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/investigations/ct-todd-ricketts-wilmette-property-taxes-20190709-c335ggdjvjbvposhwd3f77gwxa-story.html

The county assessor seems to be a mess and the attorney they hired to due his property tax appeal would seem to have more exposure than Ricketts.

The CURRENT County Assessor, Fritz Kaegi, is a reformer who replaced a pretty sleazy hack, Joe Berrios.  Todd Ricketts has no legitimate excuse for not following the law in informing authorities he had replaced a dilapidated house with a mansion.  Whether Berrios looked the other way or whatever is beside the point. It is inconceivable that Ricketts hired an incompetent attorney, but if he did, given his knowledge and connections in Chicago, that would be pretty strange.  I doubt he'll get criminally prosecuted, but I'm guessing he'll have to pay back assessments and a fine.


But this discussion really belongs somewhere else, whether in politics and religion of Under the Bleachers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 10, 2019, 03:03:17 pm
Hey Bennett, I've read "Commander in Cheat" and it is, indeed, both hilarious and sad!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 11, 2019, 12:00:57 am
Take this crap to the non baseball topics.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 11, 2019, 09:10:51 pm
MLB leaders, lowest hard contact % (Darvish 5th):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2019&month=14&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,a
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 11, 2019, 09:30:45 pm
That's an interesting stat for Darvish...thanks for sharing that, Deeg.

Wonder how he could be SO good at avoiding hard contact, yet give up so many bombs?  Concentration lapse?  Lack of command?  Pitch selection?  Still trying to figure out how to best throw the new baseball?

Whatever it is, I'll sure hope he has a GREAT 2nd half, both because the Cubs desperately need him to have one and, also, because it's obvious Yu is trying as hard as he possibly can (maybe too hard?) to get good results for his Team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 12, 2019, 08:35:02 am
The Cubs are 7th in MLB in OBP but 18th in plate appearances w/RISP.  What weakness does this illustrate?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2019, 08:45:33 am
The Cubs are 7th in MLB in OBP but 18th in plate appearances w/RISP.  What weakness does this illustrate?
The Cubs need a new official scorekeeper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 12, 2019, 08:57:21 am
The Cubs are 7th in MLB in OBP but 18th in plate appearances w/RISP.  What weakness does this illustrate?
The Cubs are tied for third in NL GIDPs and lead the league in runner outs (not force outs) on the bases.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 12, 2019, 10:53:53 am
The Cubs are 7th in MLB in OBP but 18th in plate appearances w/RISP.  What weakness does this illustrate?

Mental
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 12, 2019, 10:59:18 am
The Cubs are 7th in MLB in OBP but 18th in plate appearances w/RISP.  What weakness does this illustrate?

That stats like this have an large amount of randomness inherent in them?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 12, 2019, 11:01:32 am
It's been a trend since 2016...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 12, 2019, 04:04:29 pm
It means the Cubs gets lots of walks and singles with nobody on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 12, 2019, 07:19:48 pm
It’s obvious the golf ball this season hasn’t been kind to Yu. If you take away the BB explosion in April, he’s basically been pitching at ace level since apart from the HRs. Which of course is a classic “Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”

If you believe in peripherals, he could be in line for a great 2nd half. GB % is way up, hard contact rate top 5 in baseball, walk rate under 2/9 IP since May 15. If he can keep the HRs close to league average, he’s our #1 starter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 12, 2019, 07:38:19 pm
The Cubs are tied for third in NL GIDPs and lead the league in runner outs (not force outs) on the bases.

How big is our lead in runner outs? 

And where do you get the stat? 


1.  I think that's a great point that the Cubs high-risk aggressive base-running erases a lot of baserunners, as does the high DP-rate. 
2. As Chris alludes to, a lot of our baserunners come via walks. We're 8th in the league in batting average, middle-of-the-pack.  But 3rd in OBP, because we're 1st in walks.  A lot of our OBP is built on walks, but those walkers often never get into scoring position.
3.  We're also pretty high in HR.  A chunk of OBP comes from HR's, but HR's don't produce RISP, either.  (Almost 20% of the Cubs hits come via the HR.....) 
4.  The Cubs are below average (9th the league) in doubles.  A lot of hits that are single for the Cubs are doubles for Byron Buxton and the Twins.  (They're half a double per game ahead of us). 
5.  Cubs are obviously last in SB; SB create RISP.  An extra 15 SB-created RISP would shift the RISP ranking, given how tightly bunched plate-appearances-w/RISP are relative to the statistical middle, which the Cubs at 18 are very near. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2019, 09:23:48 pm
It's been a trend since 2016...

From 2016-2019 the Cubs are 5th in MLB in runs scored, behind only the Rockies in the NL (93 runs).

The Cubs are 4th in the NL in runs scored. The are averaging .131 runs/PA to the Dodgers .134 runs/PA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2019, 10:46:35 pm
Everybody else in NL Central loses today. Cubs pick up a game on everybody.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 12, 2019, 10:50:45 pm
At least two more nights in first place. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 12, 2019, 10:51:19 pm
Brewers gave up runs in the 8th, 9th, then 4 in the 10th.  Tough days for those guys. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2019, 10:57:39 pm
Giants hit 5 homers off Brewers pitching, including two off Hader.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 12, 2019, 11:02:02 pm
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/nfl-playoffs-carolina-panthers-worst-record-mlb-october-cardinals-twins-mets-dodgers/1i7ltohq8vnzb15cabureqqy2a

The Cubs won the division with 85 wins in 2007.  (And then got swept by the D-Backs, 16-6....)  Maybe that might do it this year too?  Division is a couple of games under .500 composite. 

A different division than 2015, when 97 wins put the Cubs in only 3rd place. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 12, 2019, 11:12:12 pm
As much as we need another bat who consistently puts the ball in play with authority, I'm not sure bullpen isn't still the biggest need.  Strop seems to be broken at least at the moment, and Cishek will wear down like he did last year.  If Morrow could come back great, but obviously that's a complete bonus if it happens.  We still need an 8th inning guy and a lefty.  Smith would theoretically give you both in one uniform but I'm tired of giving up our best prospects for rentals.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 13, 2019, 12:20:07 am
And where do you get the stat? 
Runner outs (not force outs) on the bases - Len Kasper during one of the games last weekend..
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2019, 12:31:24 am
.....Strop seems to be broken at least at the moment, and Cishek will wear down like he did last year.  If Morrow could come back great, but obviously that's a complete bonus if it happens.  We still need an 8th inning guy and a lefty.  Smith would theoretically give you both in one uniform but I'm tired of giving up our best prospects for rentals.

Strop has been solid since his return from the IL, until today: six consecutive scoreless appearances and an ERA of 2.70. One game does not make a guy “broken.”

Every single contender can profit by adding a quality reliever before the deadline and Cubs are no different.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 13, 2019, 01:29:20 am
Luck is a wonderful thing.  Strop gave up three hits in an inning on 7/3, and managed to escape getting scored on.  His velocity is way down since his injury (and for the year) and his soft contact rate is 6.1% vs. 19.1% career.  He's broken.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2019, 03:04:28 am
Strop is giving up way fewer line drives than career/last season (12.2% now compared to 18.2) and way more grounders too. His GB rate is 61%—-way up. This is all to the good. His launch angle against has dropped from 9.9 to 4.3.

If luck has been a factor, it’s been bad luck as he has an unusually high % of his flyballs become HRs. That’s what has hurt him—-the 4 homers allowed. His Ks and BB are holding steady. His velocity has dropped a tick or two but he still throwing 94.

A reliever throwing 94 with a plus slider and tons of grounders would not seem to fit the definition of “broken.” His homer allowed today was a product of falling behind 2-0 in the count and throwing a FB down the middle that Marte seemed to be waiting for and mashed. Strop needs to avoid that kind of pitch selection/location. But, he’s throwing a lot of very good pitches and getting a lot of easy outs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 13, 2019, 01:17:59 pm
I think we'll have to see moving forward with Strop.  He's pitched 21 scattered innings with his 5.06 ERA.   Who knows what he'll do over his next 3 months.  He may settle in and yesterday might be just a day where he gave up a HR, it happens.  But it may also be that he won't, and it will be struggle, and deeg's perception that he's been kinda struggling even in his scoreless appearances may continue. 

Just from the glances I've had (didn't see yesterday) in some scoreless appearances, my subjective perception is that he doesn't look as sharp as in recent years.  His fastball doesn't seem, subjectively, to have quite as much zip or life?  The velocity may be only slightly down, but maybe needing to work a little harder to get to that, and with maybe less location? 

I think his fastball is so important for him.  His slider is a chase pitch.   But it's a lot harder to get guys chasing on 2-0 than on 0-2.  And a lot easier to get chase on the slider if a hitter feels at risk that you might throw the fastball past him.  Every pitcher wants guys to chase of course, but it's really critical for Strop.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 13, 2019, 01:48:28 pm
Good things happen when you hit the ball the other way...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 13, 2019, 06:34:35 pm
Jesse Rogers

Verified account
 
@ESPNChiCubs
 4h4 hours ago
More
Back to the first inning and Baez double: His 19 XBH after falling behind 0-2 are tied for the most by any player in the last 30 years.

It's still July
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 13, 2019, 06:49:59 pm
Patrick Mooney on fully appreciating Javier Baez.

https://theathletic.com/1068523/2019/07/09/the-truth-about-javier-baez-nobody-plays-harder-or-means-more-to-this-team-than-he-does/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2019, 07:15:14 pm
Heyward OPS now at .827.

That’s actually .051 behind Baez, so getting into serious territory with some premier Cubs guys. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 13, 2019, 07:34:30 pm
Heyward OPS now at .827.

That’s actually .051 behind Baez, so getting into serious territory with some premier Cubs guys. 
Crazy to think the Cardinals have nobody active with an
.800 ops right now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 13, 2019, 07:38:40 pm
Encouraging news? 

Sahadev Sharma‏
@sahadevsharma

Alec Mills will start for the Cubs on Tuesday. Hamels threw from flat ground again today, 105'. Apparently really unleashed. He'll throw again from flat ground possibly Monday and then a side session soon after that assuming all goes well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 13, 2019, 09:09:28 pm

Sahadev Sharma
Verified account
@sahadevsharma

Jason Heyward has a 113 wRC+, obviously the best of his Cubs career. But he also has a .190 ISO, which would be the second-highest he's ever posted in a season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 14, 2019, 04:31:51 pm
Our old friend Jimmer used to say "baseball can be very unpredictable" or something to that effect. 

I just noticed that Jason Heyward has only one fewer HR (15) and a higher BA (.275) and OPS (.833) than Bryce Harper (16 HR, .251 BA and .827 OPS) at this point in the season. Harper does have a slight advantage on OBA though (.366 vs .359).

Who among us would have predicted that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 14, 2019, 04:46:24 pm
I expected it from Harper but not Heyward.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 14, 2019, 05:34:21 pm
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma

Kyle Ryan has allowed just one run in his last 15 appearances (13 IP). He's given up 10 hits, all singles, as opponents have an OPS of .477 against him over the span.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 14, 2019, 06:57:17 pm
Thanks for that great stat about Kyle Ryan, Ron. 

Here's what Brooks Baseball says about his stuff.
"Basic description of 2019 pitches compared to other LHP:
* Ryan's cutter has heavy sink, extreme cut action and generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' cutters.
* His sinker has heavy sinking action, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers and has surprisingly little armside run.
* His fourseam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' four seamers, has heavy sinking action, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical and has essentially average velo.
* His slider sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sliders.
* His change (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 7 of them in 2019) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' changeups, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' changeups and is much firmer than usual."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on July 15, 2019, 01:51:47 am
I miss Jimmer

And JBN

And FDISK

And weatherguy

But mostly oldfan :(
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 15, 2019, 08:41:29 am
Quote
The Royals have designated outfielder Terrance Gore for assignment to make room for outfielder Bubba Starling. The club has ten days to trade or release him. The 28-year old was known for his speed, but his did make a career-high 58 plate appearances this year, hitting .275/.362/.353 with six walks and 18 strikeouts, stealing 13 bases in 18 attempts.

Bring him back!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 15, 2019, 08:46:48 am
I miss Jimmer

And JBN

And FDISK

And weatherguy

But mostly oldfan :(

We know where oldfan went (more or less). Jimmer, I believe, simply has a life (we are in touch every now and then).  Wonder what happened to the others.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 15, 2019, 11:22:00 am
I miss Jimmer

And JBN

And FDISK

And weatherguy

But mostly oldfan :(

...and Pistol,
badgercubs,
coach,
FITS,
Okie,
BullingersEars
....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 15, 2019, 06:13:45 pm
JBN still posts now and then.
Pistol is busy being Mayor;  he posts on FB.
badgercubs, I think, is busy with marriage and kids.
coach, I worry about
FITS, moved around the country with different jobs.  Not sure where he is now.
Okie, I think is still in Montana, married with kid
BullingsEars, no clue.
FDISK, DiHard says contacts her occasionally
weatherguy checks in during playoffs, I think
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 15, 2019, 06:38:04 pm
And JR too.

That little feller is missed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 15, 2019, 06:50:34 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  38m38 minutes ago
Theo said price is high right now on the trade front. Did say once again a Terrence Gore type player would be nice addition along with the other needs.(lefty reliever etc)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 15, 2019, 09:18:45 pm
And JR too.

That little feller is missed.

JR isn't allowed to be up after 9 PM, so he can only post on games played in the eastern time zone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 15, 2019, 10:36:44 pm
Cubs just acquired Martin Maldonado from KC...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 10:40:03 pm
I hope that doesn’t mean Willson is really hurt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 10:40:47 pm
Montgomery to Royals.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 15, 2019, 10:42:24 pm
What the hell does that solve? Caratini has been one of our bright spots this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 10:45:37 pm
Maybe it means Willson is missing time or they just really wanted Montgomery gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 15, 2019, 10:46:01 pm
Maldonado's a scrub but I guess Montgomery isnt much either.

Thanks for that final out in '16 though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 15, 2019, 10:47:13 pm
Montgomery to Royals.

OK, the more you think about this the less sense it makes. Montgomery for a rental backup catcher, when your backup catcher has been one of your best hitters?

That is, unless Contreras’ foot is way worse than the club is admitting.  Otherwise - mfwtf?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 15, 2019, 10:47:55 pm
Montgomery to Royals.
Going home
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 15, 2019, 10:51:07 pm
Wilson to DL with a strained arch muscle, or something similar.

Likely only 10 days, per Theo...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 10:51:31 pm
Rogers said Cubs have been looking to trade Montgomery since April.

Some speculation that Caratini could get moved in a separate trade, which I’d hate. Hopefully Willson isn’t hurt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 15, 2019, 10:52:28 pm
Maybe we're trading Contreras to the White Sox for one of their LOOGYs!  Wonder if could get Eloy for Quintana.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 10:55:19 pm
Willson to the IL with a foot strain. Expected to be 10 days. Sounds like the Cubs really wanted Montgomery gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 15, 2019, 11:06:39 pm
Best wishes to MM.  He's been a bad liability for the Cubs, so it's addition by subtraction.... for now.  But he gave everything he had, and some of that relief/rotation swing stuff a couple of years ago I think really drained his arm.  Too bad for him and his career. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 15, 2019, 11:08:43 pm
Watch.  AL Cy Young winner in 2020.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 15, 2019, 11:17:09 pm
Best wishes to MM.  He's been a bad liability for the Cubs, so it's addition by subtraction.... for now.  But he gave everything he had, and some of that relief/rotation swing stuff a couple of years ago I think really drained his arm.  Too bad for him and his career. 

I wouldn't say he was a "bad liability" in 17-18.  Certainly not '17.  This year has unfortunately been another matter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2019, 11:26:00 pm
If one went to baseballtradevaleues.com and put in a trade of Caratini and Will Smith the trade values line up as a 1:1. It sure seems like a trade to move Caratini.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 15, 2019, 11:31:30 pm
Yeah, trading for Maldonado seems unneccessary if Contreras is only going to be out for the minimum. I was wondering if maybe Caratini was being discussed in trades too.

Or, I guess it could be a precursor to Contreras playing more in the outfield.

But it also seems like Montgomery was probably on his way out in the next week or two anyway, so maybe Maldonado as catcher depth was the most useful value they could find in return.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 15, 2019, 11:34:20 pm
It does sound like trade talks were going on before Contreras got hurt:

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Yes, to two days ago. Theo also said they'd been working on various iterations of a deal with KC for a few days now and news on Willson just accelerated it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 12:52:01 am
Maldonado has trade value. Cubs could flip him when Contreras comes back before the deadline. Montgomery had no role here, so a guy with no role has to move on. So, traded him for a guy that has some value around baseball and will be useful for a week or so when we can use him.

Thanks for The Final Out, MM. (No kidding)

Think that if Caratini were to be traded—which I doubt—it might be as part of a big multi-player package to get one impact bat in return. An offensive catcher with 4 1/2 years of control, geez, that is a valuable property. Love the site that CBJ linked but think it seriously undervalues Caratini’s value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 16, 2019, 01:00:55 am
Remember when Jorge Orta said call me George?

If Marteen Maldonado wanted to be known as Martin, he would have said something by now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 01:07:48 am
Remember when Jorge Orta said call me George?

If Marteen Maldonado wanted to be known as Martin, he would have said something by now.

Spelling is Martin and pronunciation can be and IS \mar-TEEN\.

Not a problem.

Expect that Len and JD will get it right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 01:11:07 am
Montgomery told ESPN tonight that he asked to be traded as far back as April. Felt he’s better suited to be a starter and figured he wouldn’t get that opportunity here. So, appears that Cubs working on something for him for awhile.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 02:35:13 am
Royals GM Dayton Moore on Maldonado:

“We’re going to miss him,” Moore said, “and he’s a guy we wouldn’t close the door on returning sometime. We think that much of him.”

Hah, maybe Cubs send Maldonado back to the Royals in 10 days for Jake Diekman?

Theo said they been working on a version of this trade and went ahead Monday when realized Contreras headed to IL. Maybe Diekman is the other version and when Cubs don’t need Maldonado anymore, they just flip him back for Diekman.

Okay, probably reading too much into Dayton Moore’s remarks but kind of makes sense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on July 16, 2019, 04:55:45 am
Maldonado fill the role of Grampa Rossy?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 16, 2019, 08:38:00 am
Gotta wonder if the brain trust figured it would be cheaper to get another catcher and use Contreras in the OF than try to trade for a good hitting outfielder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 16, 2019, 08:41:23 am
Spelling is Martin and pronunciation can be and IS \mar-TEEN\.

Not a problem.

Expect that Len and JD will get it right.
Maldonado is from Puerto Rico.  Suppose an American player named Martin went there.  He'd automatically be known as Marteen.  Why do other countries always get to have their cake and eat it too?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 16, 2019, 08:55:20 am
Because cake is good!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 16, 2019, 09:05:49 am
Sharma provides Theo's explanation of the reasons he traded for Maldonado.  Seems he really likes the guy's skills behind the plate and with pitchers.  Sharma also discusses Caratini and Montgomery.

https://theathletic.com/1079205/2019/07/16/breaking-down-the-implications-of-the-cubs-acquisition-of-martin-maldonado-and-willson-contreras-injury/

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 16, 2019, 10:14:22 am
It's hard not to see this move as a vote of "no confidence" with respect to Caratini.  Seems likely he will be traded.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on July 16, 2019, 10:26:09 am
Wait - isn't Schwarb a backup catcher?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 16, 2019, 10:26:24 am
You mean the guy Maddon often bats fifth?  The guy with a better average than 90% of the team?  Maybe so, but I think it may have been more lack of confidence in Montgomery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 16, 2019, 10:35:11 am
It's hard not to see this move as a vote of "no confidence" with respect to Caratini.  Seems likely he will be traded.

I wouldn't say no confidence.  I see it as Caratini has raised his value and he's easier to part with than top tier prospects.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 16, 2019, 10:39:46 am
If Caratini is looking for a future starting gig, he might have requested a trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 16, 2019, 10:47:56 am
You really have to work hard to conjure up a deeply hidden motivation behind this trade.

Montgomery was the least valuable player on the 25 man roster.  Anything useful at all would be an improvement.

Most teams carry a third catcher for a reason.  Catchers, after pitchers, are the most injury prone position on the team.  Having only two available can give depth in other areas, but has a substantial risk if there is not a viable alternative in the minors (with options)

Contreras is injured, and although is only estimated to be out for 10 days, there is always the danger that it could be much longer.  Even 10 days at this point in the season can hurt substantially.

Once Contreras went on the IL, trading Montgomery for a decent back up catcher was a no brainer.

I have no doubt that if someone offered a deal for Caratini that knocked their socks off, the Cubs would take it, just as they would take it, regardless of the presence of Maldonado.  And a very good back up catcher has less value for us than a very good starting catcher has for several other teams.  A trade of Caratini was a reasonable event, regardless of this particular trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 16, 2019, 10:56:30 am
Carrying Maldonado will likely weaken our bench over the next six weeks (although he has recently been hot offensively).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 16, 2019, 11:03:24 am
I'm not sure I see this as an indictment on Caratini, or a strong indication that he's going to be traded. I understand that the Cubs have few trade resources, so I get the logic where he might be a guy you could use to get somebody valuable, and that maybe with Maldonado you'd not necessarily kill yourself at catcher. 

But to me the trade also makes plausible sense on it's own, without being linked to an impending Caratini trade, just on short-term basis. 
1.  Contreras is injured, with 11 games in the next 13 days. 
2.  Our Iowa catcher is Taylor Davis, who isn't good. 
3.  You can't go 10 days with only one catcher; we needed a short-term alternative. 
4.  Stars don't often go on 10-day and then come back 100% immediately.  So, maybe the Contreras injury may be likely to persist to variable degree? 
5.  As Curt noted, perhaps they may use him more in OF. 

That's from the catcher perspective.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 16, 2019, 11:05:30 am
4.   Pitching-wise, unloading MM was urgent and necessary.  MM helped in the WS season, he got the last out.  2017, he was very good and invaluable being used all the time with frequently inadequate rest in both rotation and relief.  Following his strong 2017 season, prior to signing Darvish he seemed like a default favorite for the 2018 rotation; and there was a stretch last season when he pitched effectively in rotation, and there were believers that he was a potential capable long-term rotation guy at some point.  So he's had 2.5 seasons where he was a valuable flex piece, where he was a variably competent pitcher, and where we had hopes for the guy going forward.  (Certainly Maddon talked him up as a future rotation guy after 2016.) 

But, that was then and this is now.  He's been terrible this season, a big liability with zero utility. 
*Maybe the commitment to dump him for whatever they could get was made last week, and this turned out to be the best move Theo could find?  Just look at this post-break stretch... 
*Maddon wanted a lefty reliever; three times he called on Rosario, not MM.  Maddon had written him off as a lefty reliever (rightfully, for now at least.) 
*Second, we knew that Hamels was on the DL, and that somebody needed to pick up a start tonight.  Obvious spot for your long-man rotation-fill-in, right?  A job that was obviously MM's for the previous two seasons and was expected to be his this year as well.  But no, Maddon had written him off as a rotation fill-in, too. 

MM had 4 potential roles entering this season.  1. Good reliever.  2.  Lefty reliever.  3.  Spot-starter  4.  Long-man. 
Basically he's pitches so badly that he's pitches his way out of all four of those.  He'd pitched his way to the bottom of the reliever ladder.  He'd pitches his way to the bottom of the lefty reliever, situational-lefty ladder.  He'd pitched his way off of the spot-starter ladder. 

Having a no-function guy on a 25-man roster doesn't make sense.  Hamels will come back.  Perhaps Edwards will come back.  Perhaps they'll add somebody else.  Unless a few other guys get injured soon, I don't see how Montgomery was going to last into August anyway. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 01:46:35 pm

..Most teams carry a third catcher for a reason.  Catchers, after pitchers, are the most injury prone position on the team.  Having only two available can give depth in other areas, but has a substantial risk if there is not a viable alternative in the minors (with options)...

Actually, there are ZERO clubs currently carrying a third catcher in the NL. It is unusual to do that.

Back in the day when clubs carried 10 pitchers, clubs typically had a third catcher—often a guy who could hit off the bench.

But, with 13-man pitching staffs, there are 4 bench guys. Very difficult to have 1/2 of your bench be catchers. Almost only happens when one catcher is banged up but not enough to go on IL or you have a true multi-position guy who catches too.

I suppose it is possible that if Contreras is out for rest of July, Cubs could go the entire month of August with 1/2 the bench catchers and then have a full bench when rosters expand in Sept. You could do it for a few weeks maybe, as Contreras and Caratini have some versatility. You keep Bote and Garcia, plus the two catchers—4 bench guys—dump Descalso and don’t add another bat and keep Happ at Iowa until Sept. Not sure that’s such a great plan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 16, 2019, 02:10:16 pm
I think it has been teased out that the Cubs were working on a Maldonado+ trade with the Royals and after Contreras MRI it became just get Maldonado done.  The Cubs aren't going to carry 3 catchers until the rosters expand so it is either Caratini gets sent down until Sept or he gets traded.  Having another catcher with a strong arm to catch Darvish would be nice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 16, 2019, 02:17:24 pm
CUBluejays, I wonder if the Cubs won't carry 3 catchers...

* Caratini could allow a match-up choice with Maldonado on days Contreras rests

* Caratini could allow Rizzo to take an occasional day off (or insurance if sore back)

* Caratini would provide a solid pinch-hitting choice with the game on the line.

I'd rather carry Caratini than Descalso through the dog days unless Cubs' brass and Joe believe regular ABs would help Caratini (and the Cubs) perform at the peak in September.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 16, 2019, 02:28:39 pm
I'd rather have Happ than Descalso you needs a trip to IL.  He hasn't hit since he hurt his ankle early in the season.

It just really limits what you can do with a short bench to carry 2 catchers with a 13 man staff. 

Contreras, Rizzo, 2B, Baez, Bote, Schwarber, Heyward, Bryant would be the starters.  Caritin, Maldanado, Almora, Russell/Garcia would be the bench.  If somebody needs a day off or gets a minor injury that is a rough place to be in.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 16, 2019, 02:34:12 pm
Besides Descalso, Chatwood should start feeling "next" since they are now the least valuable now that Montgomery is gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 16, 2019, 02:39:44 pm
Martin Maldonado takes Mike Montgomery's #38.

Alec Mills had used #24 in the past, now he'll wear #30.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 16, 2019, 05:56:56 pm
Len Kasper  @LenKasper  43m43 minutes ago
Cubs have hit .241 with nobody on base this season. .278 with runners on base. The +.037 difference is 3rd-best in MLB.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2019, 08:22:19 pm
Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Willson Contreras says he saw a specialist who told him he has a bruised right foot: “Nothing to worry about.” The Cubs catcher plans to rest for a couple days, resume his routine on Friday and spend the minimum amount of time on the 10-day injured list.
5:29 PM · Jul 16, 2019 ·
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 16, 2019, 08:25:20 pm
Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Willson Contreras says he saw a specialist who told him he has a bruised right foot: “Nothing to worry about.” The Cubs catcher plans to rest for a couple days, resume his routine on Friday and spend the minimum amount of time on the 10-day injured list.
5:29 PM · Jul 16, 2019 ·

That's great news. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 16, 2019, 08:44:06 pm
Red Sox optioned Ryan Brasier.  Wonder if that's somebody the Cubs would take a look at.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on July 16, 2019, 09:10:07 pm
Patrick Mooney on fully appreciating Javier Baez.

https://theathletic.com/1068523/2019/07/09/the-truth-about-javier-baez-nobody-plays-harder-or-means-more-to-this-team-than-he-does/ (https://theathletic.com/1068523/2019/07/09/the-truth-about-javier-baez-nobody-plays-harder-or-means-more-to-this-team-than-he-does/)

Any highlights, for those of us without a subscription?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 17, 2019, 09:06:17 am
Rosenthal mentioned in his column for the Athletic the Astros had interest in Maldonado as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 17, 2019, 09:08:07 am
Maldonado for Altuve sounds about right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 17, 2019, 01:56:15 pm
Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales

Hamels threw 25 pitches at about 85 percent during bullpen session. All went well, says Hottovy. Next pen session likely Saturday.

Gonzales also says, if goes well on Saturday, maybe a rehab or sim game to follow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 17, 2019, 08:19:09 pm
Chicago Cubs

Verified account
 
@Cubs
 5h5 hours ago
More
Opponents are hitting .213 vs. @faridyu this season, the 3rd-best mark among qualified NL starters. #EverybodyIn
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chiman on July 17, 2019, 08:29:40 pm
Eric Sogard might be a cheap option to lead off. He is having a career year (866 ops)and signed a minor league deal with the Jays so salary would be a non factor.  Playing LF tonight so he could play there along with 2B. Maybe we could move Descalso along with some cash and a C prospect for him. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 18, 2019, 11:26:59 am
Cedeno's rehab was cut short in Iowa.  So he's either hurt again, released or getting called up.  He had 1 rehab appearance that didn't go well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 19, 2019, 09:58:30 am
Bruce Miles  @BruceMiles2112  6m6 minutes ago
#Cubs activate Carl Edwards Jr., option Randy Rosario.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 19, 2019, 11:51:47 am
Kyle Ryan is now the only lefty in the pen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 19, 2019, 06:58:13 pm
Mountain Dewde
@TonyAndracki23

Since he got a day off in Colorado on June 12, Kris Bryant is slashing .369/.458/.660 (1.119 OPS)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 19, 2019, 08:45:56 pm
At the trade deadline I’d like Castellanos and a LHRP. Smith would be ideal, but I’d really like the Cubs to keep their top end prospects.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 19, 2019, 08:56:11 pm
Castellanos and Watson is OK by me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 19, 2019, 09:29:20 pm
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Cubs and Braves are among the teams that have been scouting Tigers' outfifelder Nicholas Castellanos.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 19, 2019, 09:29:37 pm
Br must be torn.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 19, 2019, 11:38:56 pm
Heyward hasn’t been very good defensively in CF. A Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos outfield would be pretty awful defensively.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 20, 2019, 01:21:51 am
Heyward hasn’t been very good defensively in CF. A Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos outfield would be pretty awful defensively.

Yeah, but the player who checks all our boxes probably isn’t out there. Castellanos kills lefties and we suck against lefties. And the Dodgers are loaded with LH starters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 20, 2019, 01:42:36 am
Against lefties, Castellanos probably would replace Schwarber in LF.  Not a huge drop defensively.

Question would be how much he would play against righties. There, Heyward would move to CF if you’re going to emphasize offense. Depends on the road ballpark, kind of pitcher Cubs are starting, and other factors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 20, 2019, 08:33:09 am
In nine games since Bryant has moved to the 3 spot, he's posting a .424/.537/.909 line (1.446 OPS) with 4 doubles, 4 homers and 11 runs scored while walking more than he's striking out (8 to 5). 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 20, 2019, 10:27:11 am
vs. RHP:

Castellanos: .261-316-432-748
Almora: .255-291-427-718
Bote: .273-365-460-825
Russell: .252-317-423-740
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 20, 2019, 10:33:56 am
Giants are supposedly scouting the Cubs MLB team for trade fits per Levine.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 20, 2019, 10:50:15 am
I think Chatwood and Descalso would be excellent fits.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 20, 2019, 01:53:09 pm
It is a shame Longoria’s contract runs to 2022. Something like Chatwood, Caratini/Almora for Longoria, Smith and cash would be sorta interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 20, 2019, 02:06:47 pm
Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Lowest wRC+ over the past calendar year, minimum 400 PAs:
1. Billy Hamilton (57)
2. Chris Davis (58)
3. Albert Almora (62)
4. Kyle Seager (67)
5. Joe Panik (68)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 20, 2019, 02:15:20 pm
Why would we want Longoria?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 20, 2019, 03:40:16 pm
Giants are supposedly scouting the Cubs MLB team for trade fits per Levine.

Seems a lot more likely that Giants having an advance scout in Chicago is about preparation for the upcoming Cubs visit to SF that starts on Monday. Routine to be scouting for that purpose.

A lot of people, such as Levine, jumping to conclusions based on everyday, routine matters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 20, 2019, 03:41:50 pm
1) It gets Chatwood off the team
2) The AAV is $11 million on his contract. With the inclusion of cash in the deal his AAV is $11 million- cash. With enough cash he is essentially free or negative for the luxury tax.
3) Chatwood goes bye.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 20, 2019, 09:43:11 pm
Sahadev Sharma

Verified account
 
@sahadevsharma
Following Following @sahadevsharma
More
Lowest wRC+ over the past calendar year, minimum 400 PAs:
1. Billy Hamilton (57)
2. Chris Davis (58)
3. Albert Almora (62)
4. Kyle Seager (67)
5. Joe Panik (68)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 20, 2019, 09:58:15 pm
Deeg must have me blocked. Or maybe we both just need to point out how bad Almora has been. Even taking defense into account, Happ has to be better.

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Lowest wRC+ over the past calendar year, minimum 400 PAs:
1. Billy Hamilton (57)
2. Chris Davis (58)
3. Albert Almora (62)
4. Kyle Seager (67)
5. Joe Panik (68)

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 20, 2019, 10:22:06 pm
Sorry, just didn't notice.

"Has to better" is a stretch, considering how bad Happ has been at AAA most of the year.  But I'd certainly roll the dice and see what happens.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 21, 2019, 12:26:08 am
Cub fans gave the weather a standing O today:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1152691986186547200
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 21, 2019, 09:31:45 pm
Nicholas Castellanos, 2-for-2 today, is batting .318 in July. He’s drawing interest from the #Cubs, to confirm @cmccosky’s report. Castellanos’ right-handed bat is of particular value among NL contenders right now. @MLBNetwork @MLB--Morosi
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 21, 2019, 09:32:17 pm
Sources confirm Cubs and Tigers have engaged in some talks about Nick Castellanos . Detroit News had report today . Nothing hot as of right now but bench trouble could change that. Still prefer leadoff type.--Levine
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 21, 2019, 09:33:01 pm
The report from @cmccosky on the Cubs interest in Nick Castellanos is correct. There have also been discussions that include Tigers closer Shane Greene. To acquire both would be fairly costly. We are 10 days from the trade deadline.--Kaplan
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 21, 2019, 11:32:38 pm
Greene and Castellanos for Edwards, Chatwood, and Almora.  Do it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 12:16:05 am
That's comedy gold.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 22, 2019, 12:18:25 am
If Cubs deal with Tigers for a late-inning reliever and a pending free agent position player, there’s recent history between these clubs, of course. Happened at trade deadline in 2017: Justin Wilson was Tigers’ closer (with another year of club control) and Alex Avila was having a very good season in his walk year. Certain similarity to current guys of interest.

Greene probably has more value than Wilson did (although both had/have almost identical FIP and Wilson added-lefty value) and ditto for Castellanos over Avila. But, don’t think substantially more. Avila was having a very good offensive year then.

Cubs sent Candelario (just outside being a top 100 overall prospect at the time) and Paredes, a good offensive prospect in A ball at the time.

Add up their total value at the time, and add somewhat more, and you have a deal, maybe.

Think Cubs would offer up different types of guys now, as a practical matter.

Not Almora, we need his CF glove for now, especially taking back a clunky defense corner guy. Edwards was throwing 92-93 today—tough to assess him positively right now, but could see him going. Chatwood—don’t see him getting moved until off-season, maybe then. Now, he’s needed starting pitching depth—with Montgomery gone and Alzolay on shelf.

Think Happ might be appealing to Tigers (has had some success in majors and lots of years of control)—perhaps more value than Candelario had in 2017. Hard to see this deal if Tigers don’t find Happ appealing, I think. Lots of pitchers in minors with value, including guys CBJ speculated about. Zagunis not much value, but would be a logical guy to take some of the Castellanos ABs for Tigers. Wouldn’t shock me to see Russell moved, but complicated of course. Guessing Tigers would want Bote, but would be tough to move him as he’s in Maddon’s rotation. Don’t see that.  Zack Short—has value and close to majors.

In any case, Two guys here, another guy from another grouping. Cubs and Tigers have worked together before.

Saw Greene work recently— has a very good hard sinker now. Not much of a track record of success, however. Would set up Kimbrel next year too, which is big.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 02:43:10 am
I look at Greene’s stat line and only one number seems to jump out - BABIP .176 (.305 career). If ever a guy was due for a hard regression, it’s him.

I think we’re in much more of a seller’s market, especially for position players, then we were when we made the Wilson/Avila deal.  Many more teams in the hunt and very few potential impact bats on the market. Castellanos will be expensive enough - if Greene adds significantly to the cost that would be a hard pass for me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 06:43:51 am
Happ has too much value for the Greene and Castellanos straight up. Ademan and Lange/Abbott/Hatch is plenty of value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 07:46:51 am
Yeah, good luck with that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 09:49:27 am
We don't really need Greene, so why pay a ton, if somebody wants to pay more fine, but that is fair value for the two.

Mooney mentioned the Cubs have interest in Dyson for CF. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 22, 2019, 10:09:33 am
Hamels is coming off the DL and Zobrist may surprise us soon.  A deal for anybody takes more spots.   That's why I think they may look to shed some of our current 40 man in any deal.  JMO
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 11:47:38 am
Wick might be coming up for Edwards according to Rogers.

Zobrist has to be back on the 40 man by 7/31 or he will require a waiver from MLB to be able to play in the playoffs from what I read.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 22, 2019, 12:00:51 pm
Wick might be coming up for Edwards according to Rogers.

Zobrist has to be back on the 40 man by 7/31 or he will require a waiver from MLB to be able to play in the playoffs from what I read.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  3m3 minutes ago
As I just reported on the radio, Carl Edwards has been optioned to Triple-A Iowa after a rough outing yesterday.

Heard Rowan Wick's name as possible replacement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 22, 2019, 12:01:40 pm
Has the front office finally decided that they have to take Edwards away from Joe? I wouldn’t be surprised If Edwards has thrown his last pitch as a Cub.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 22, 2019, 12:03:54 pm
Has the front office finally decided that they have to take Edwards away from Joe? I wouldn’t be surprised If Edwards has thrown his last pitch as a Cub.
Carl is probably at a point where a change of scenery might be the best option for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 22, 2019, 01:16:22 pm
Like most everyone here and most every other Cub fan, I cringed when hearing Joe was bringing in Edwards yesterday...about like I cringed when I heard Joe was having Almora lead off a couple games in a row.

However, it's SO much easier to make the call from a fan's seat at home than from Joe's position in the dugout. 

Frankly, we're playing checkers and Joe is playing chess, having to assuage egos and inject confidence in guys who have lost it, at least temporarily.  He knows who is playing through injury, whether physical or mental, who needs to be challenged and who he needs to know can adjust and step up...or not.

I don't think the right way to judge a manager or a front office is to look at any one move, but at the body of work.  Thus, while I'll likely continue to cringe - with many here - following some moves made the rest of the way, I'll hope Joe will continue to mostly make the right moves...often with important considerations we will never know.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 22, 2019, 02:05:08 pm
I remember shortly after we signed Maddon, someone from Tampa mentioned that, while Maddon was considered to be a genius at motivating and developing young players, he would drive everyone crazy with his in-game moves, especially with pitchers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 02:44:13 pm
Edwards stuff is down from what it was previously.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 04:39:12 pm
Dyson is basically a LH hitting, slightly suckier Almora.  Not a lot of impact there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on July 22, 2019, 05:44:34 pm
I remember shortly after we signed Maddon, someone from Tampa mentioned that, while Maddon was considered to be a genius at motivating and developing young players, he would drive everyone crazy with his in-game moves, especially with pitchers.

That was me... and  his motivational schtick runs long in the tooth with vets after a few years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 22, 2019, 06:03:31 pm
Hamels to pitch tomorrow at AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 22, 2019, 06:34:12 pm
Since the game Almora hit that little kid with the foul ball he has a line of .211/.235/.307/.542 and looks scared to pull the ball hard after a .900 OPS the 31 games leading up to it driving the ball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 07:56:57 pm
Dyson is basically a LH hitting, slightly suckier Almora.  Not a lot of impact there.

He has a .335 OBP, speed and above average CF defense.  He’s an improvement in CF at a cheap price.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 22, 2019, 08:38:18 pm
That's a very interesting point about Almora, Robb.

He's a human being with little kids and it was SO sad another little kid got hit very, very hard with his foul ball! 

Time for MLB to extend the nets farther and, maybe, time for Almora to see the Team psychiatrist...if he hasn't already.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 09:28:48 pm
He has a .335 OBP, speed and above average CF defense.  He’s an improvement in CF at a cheap price.

Dyson is a bad enough hitter that his .700 OPS basically makes this a career year for him.  His career OBP is .322 to Almora’s .314. His defense in CF is - like Almora’s - solid average but not exceptional. He steals a few bases and he hits left-handed - that’s about the only way he’s an upgrade and he doesn’t help you at all against the Dodgers. As a minimal improvement if the cost were effectively zero, sure, why not. But he’s not a difference maker by any stretch of the imagination.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2019, 09:53:04 pm
Almora is providing anywhere near that in offensive value right now and Heyward isn’t providing above average defense so it is an upgrade. Kimbrel is the difference maker, everything else is just improving the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 22, 2019, 11:06:29 pm
If the price for Will Smith is too high, we should ask about Pomeranz. That was electric.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 22, 2019, 11:30:25 pm
There's a "little Dutch boy" thing about trying to fix this team that really makes me hesitant to give up anybody with real upside for a rental.  Yeah the division is there for the taking but this team has so many holes that it's not really fixable at the trade deadline.  How much do you give up for the possibility of a lucky hot (or cold) streak in the postseason that lets you take out a clearly superior team?  Not an easy question to answer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 23, 2019, 02:17:41 am
They're not that bad and a couple moves would give us a chance at another pennant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 23, 2019, 10:03:57 am
Getting back an effective Zobrist would help a lot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 23, 2019, 10:31:48 am
Getting back an effective Zobrist would help a lot.

Getting an effective Zobrist would be similar to getting a game changing Schwarber back in 2016, and just as unlikely.  I doubt Zobrist will be in a position to make much of a contribution on the field after all this time off, not to mention his mental/emotional condition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 23, 2019, 10:47:38 am
I'm not quite as pessimistic as that.  Certainly, Theo needs to make another move(s) to improve the team offensively.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 23, 2019, 10:58:35 am
Agree with Ron, unfortunately.  Zobrist has a .596 OPS this year, was only .693 two years ago, is 38 years old, and has taken the summer off from good pitching. 

Unlikely things happen in baseball, we know, so maybe he'll come back and help in some unlikely way.  As Jeff used to remind me, bad hitters can get key hits!  So maybe he'll come back and get an important hit or two, a lot of games hinge on a soft bloop or an ordinary grounder that finds a hole, you never know.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 23, 2019, 11:02:59 am
He has to be rostered by July 31, and, assuming he needs to get up to speed, the AAA season normally ends end of August.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 23, 2019, 11:32:43 am
Cubs non-pitchers have a .262/.345/.471 slash line with a wRC+ of 110.  That is third in the NL behind the Dodgers (121) and Braves (112).  The thought that the offense needs a major overhaul is odd.  They could use a solid contributor in CF and 2B, and maybe a RH corner OF bat.   They have Zobrist and Happ that can be added as well. 

The bullpen needs a lefty and maybe another RH if Strop can't get straightened out.  They have Marrow and Hultzen as internal options.  The rotation is set.

The Dodgers are weak offensively against LH pitchers (wRC+ 102 vs Cubs wRC+ 99) which the Cubs have a few of those.  The Dodgers bullpen isn't that great either. 
The Braves need help in the bullpen and starting rotation.  There isn't a perfect team in the NL or American league.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 23, 2019, 11:38:59 am
He has to be rostered by July 31, and, assuming he needs to get up to speed, the AAA season normally ends end of August.
Since Zobrist is a switch-hitter, would he need more at bats than normal to get up to speed?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 23, 2019, 01:35:04 pm
Cubs non-pitchers have a .262/.345/.471 slash line with a wRC+ of 110.  That is third in the NL behind the Dodgers (121) and Braves (112).  The thought that the offense needs a major overhaul is odd.  They could use a solid contributor in CF and 2B, and maybe a RH corner OF bat.   They have Zobrist and Happ that can be added as well. 

Other than the Dodgers, of course, and probably the Braves, I don’t see a better offensive team than Cubs in NL.

The perception otherwise here is perhaps because 95% of the games that posters here see are one team, the Cubs, and don’t see other clubs going thru the same kind of ups and downs and frustrations. So, it’s a natural perception. Yes, Cubs would be helped by another addition, but it’s a good offensive club.

As to Strop, getting close to losing the 8th inning role. He should be okay throwing 94 but think maybe he’s losing some confidence in the 4-seamer, one of which was the hardest hit ball he gave up last night. Threw a lot of cutters yesterday. Needs to do better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 23, 2019, 03:13:26 pm
Smokies announcer Mick Gillespie was just on local sports radio here and said in so many words that he thought the Cubs patience was running very thin with Addison Russell and that he didnt think we had anybody in our farm system that was off limits for the trade deadline.

He specifically mentioned Almora and Happ as names to be moved and that we wanted Whit Merrifield.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 23, 2019, 04:34:22 pm
Only the true franchise polyannas believe Almora and Happ have any major value at this point.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 23, 2019, 06:00:29 pm
I could see somebody wanting Happ.

Almora not so much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 23, 2019, 06:40:59 pm
Yeah, I think Happ has some value. As the main piece for Merrifield as that report seemed to hint? That's someone's fever dream. But he has mostly performed in the majors and seems to finally be adjusting at AAA. He could get a pretty interesting reliever at this point, and might be a decent second piece in a Merrifield deal.

I doubt Almora has any significant value at this point, though. Maybe as the third for Merrifield if the package is top heavy...but he just hasn't hit major league pitching at all for a full calendar year now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 23, 2019, 06:42:44 pm
I'd like to trade for Thor.   Eloy and Happ.  Oh, wait...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 23, 2019, 06:44:58 pm
Actually, the only part of the Eloy trade that worked was Q's contract.  That could still be valuable in a trade.   Thor for Q, Happ, Amaya, and any prospect they're hot on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 23, 2019, 06:46:20 pm
Mills down. Collins up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 23, 2019, 06:49:37 pm
Another lefty in the pen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 23, 2019, 06:52:47 pm
Yeah, I think Happ has some value. As the main piece for Merrifield as that report seemed to hint? That's someone's fever dream. But he has mostly performed in the majors and seems to finally be adjusting at AAA. He could get a pretty interesting reliever at this point, and might be a decent second piece in a Merrifield deal.

I doubt Almora has any significant value at this point, though. Maybe as the third for Merrifield if the package is top heavy...but he just hasn't hit major league pitching at all for a full calendar year now.

I think it speaks volumes that even as the Cubs field a lineup with 2-3 automatic outs every day, they still won't recall Happ despite his recent good numbers at Iowa.  If they think so little of his chances it's hard to imagine another GM feeling much differently.

Meanwhile we have Russell admitting part of his problem is that he "doesn't know the signs as well as he should", and attributes his struggles to "not playing as often as he'd like".  And Descalso effectively being a Rule 5 player, eating a roster spot while never being involved in games.  And Chatwood hasn't pitched in almost 10 days, and has to ask a reporter to try and find out why from the manager.  This roster is a colossal mess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 23, 2019, 06:59:20 pm
Yet we lead our division and have the 3rd best record in the NL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 23, 2019, 07:18:43 pm
I think it speaks volumes that even as the Cubs field a lineup with 2-3 automatic outs every day, they still won't recall Happ despite his recent good numbers at Iowa.  If they think so little of his chances it's hard to imagine another GM feeling much differently.

Meanwhile we have Russell admitting part of his problem is that he "doesn't know the signs as well as he should", and attributes his struggles to "not playing as often as he'd like".  And Descalso effectively being a Rule 5 player, eating a roster spot while never being involved in games.  And Chatwood hasn't pitched in almost 10 days, and has to ask a reporter to try and find out why from the manager.  This roster is a colossal mess.

If Chatwood is actually that dumb, see if he knows what DFA means.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 23, 2019, 07:32:47 pm
If Chatwood is actually that dumb, see if he knows what DFA means.

Well, he was unscored upon in his last two relief outings for what it's worth.  Maybe he's not totally out of line in wanting some communication from the manager.

In any event, if you're not using Chatwood either that means you're playing with a 23-man roster.  Seems like an unwise move from a competitive standpoint.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 23, 2019, 07:52:37 pm
Hamels at Iowa: 2-1/3 -1-0-0-3-2,  35 pitches, 17 strikes
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on July 24, 2019, 06:24:29 am
An interesting hypothetical question posed on the Waddle and Silvey radio show yesterday:

What would you rather have for the rest of the year if you had to choose one?  A healthy highly productive Morrow or a healthy highly productive Zobrist?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 24, 2019, 07:58:34 am
Morrow for sure.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 24, 2019, 09:11:56 am
Cubs have 2.5-game lead on Giants now for the WildCard.  The board has long been talking about Giants as relief-help sellers.  But they've now got a very direct path to the playoffs, so shouldn't be sellers. 

The Cubs are now at the front of the 7-team pack of wild-card possibilities that is only 3 games from front-to-back.  So seven teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. 

The next four teams are only another 3-4 games back, two hot weeks behind. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 24, 2019, 09:30:54 am
Cubs have 2.5-game lead on Giants now for the WildCard.  The board has long been talking about Giants as relief-help sellers.  But they've now got a very direct path to the playoffs, so shouldn't be sellers. 

The Cubs are now at the front of the 7-team pack of wild-card possibilities that is only 3 games from front-to-back.  So seven teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. 

The next four teams are only another 3-4 games back, two hot weeks behind. 

Are you including other 1st place teams, besides the Cubs, as Wild Card contenders?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 24, 2019, 09:36:47 am
We have lost the guy who got the last out in 2016 and the MVP from that World Series.  The leadoff man is gone for a couple of years as is Grandpa Rossy.  Reasons to keep the band together are vaporizing.  I expect Theo to be true to his word and shake things up before the 31st.  I doubt we will lose any of our favorite guys, but to get a deal done...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 24, 2019, 09:55:46 am
A fine article from Patrick Mooney on Javy Baez, due in large measure to Brian Butterfield's quotes.


https://theathletic.com/1092631/2019/07/24/he-turns-safe-into-outs-the-art-of-tagging-and-how-the-cubs-let-javier-baez-be-himself/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 24, 2019, 10:04:23 am
There are periodic references to Montgomery getting the last out of the World Series, and how he will always be remembered for that.  Seems like I recall him even being referred to a hero as a result of that.

But Montgomery himself said he had nothing went he went to the mound, after warming up repeatedly during the game.  Yes, he got the out, and thank the gods he did.  But it's not like he had an impressive performance, blowing away the hitter.  I don't mean to denigrate his accomplishment, but I also don't think it deserves the hyperbole that is sometimes associated with it.

We all have our favored (or disfavored) players. I confess that I was never a fan of Montgomery, so I don't feel the same sort of regret about his decline this season as those who had higher expectations/hopes for him.  Conversely, I have been rooting for Almora, and the fact that he has not progressed as a hitter is a greater disappointment for me. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 24, 2019, 12:44:40 pm
Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
·
1m
Addison Russel has been optioned to Triple-A. Willson Contreras has been activated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 24, 2019, 12:54:21 pm
As much as they've been throwing Russell under the bus the last few days, he may finally be on his way out permanently.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 24, 2019, 01:06:23 pm
Looks like it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 24, 2019, 01:17:51 pm
Russell has thrown himself under the bus with sloppy play.  If he's traded, I hope it's ONLY because his play has declined.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 24, 2019, 01:51:07 pm
I've read a couple of articles, but neither really went into what mental mistakes Russell made recently, just that he made some.

Were there particular plays that stood out?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 24, 2019, 02:14:11 pm
Base running.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 24, 2019, 02:22:54 pm
Russell admitted to not knowing the signs as well as he should have.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 24, 2019, 02:30:18 pm
Some lapses on defense too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 24, 2019, 05:33:20 pm
Garcia's hitting did Addison no favors
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 24, 2019, 05:56:16 pm
Garcia's hitting did Addison no favors

It’s a great story, but Garcia is probably going to be south of the Mendoza line by September. Russell’s problems are, as ever, of his own making.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 24, 2019, 06:02:16 pm
I guess it is his fault that he chose a bad babies momma.

I choose not to judge him by that though because that's none of my concern.

His on field struggles are though and there really isnt an excuse for not knowing the signs.

It does seem like he probably needs a fresh start.

I just hope we can get something useful for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 24, 2019, 06:38:45 pm
Chatwood remains an enigma, but this isn't the first time he's stepped up and produced for us in a VERY tough situation.

We could EASILY have been swept today, but his four innings really helped!

Closely following most any MLB team is an often-frustrating exercise...certainly has been rather torturous for most of us following the Cubs this season.

However, we're still in the thick of our Division race...who knows from here?

Hang on!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 24, 2019, 07:06:05 pm

Jesse Rogers
‏Verified account @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant said he got his cleat caught in the turf taking indoor batting practice before the game and tweaked his knee which has been bugging him. Says he'll be in there Friday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 24, 2019, 07:30:01 pm
Are you including other 1st place teams, besides the Cubs, as Wild Card contenders?
 

No, not the Braves or Dodgers.  They are so far ahead they are not relevant for the wildcard. They are on a different level.

The Cubs are 1 of 7 teams that are from 1-to-8 games above .500.  Today's win widened the separation from 2.5 games to 3.5 games of space between 3rd place Cubs and 9th place Giants in the league.  One of those teams, hopefully the Cubs, will win the central.  Of the 6 that don't win the central, 2 will get a wildcard matchup.  Four will not. 

Every win, like today's, helps to stay atop the division and the wildcard group too.  And beating the Giants, who are certainly wildcard contenders, might mean the difference between the Cubs being in or out of the wildcard game. 

I know I know, perhaps you are rightfully scornful of me looking or considering wildcard options as fall-back!  I just think it's interesting how much the Dodgers and Braves have separated from the league on top, and Miami on the bottom, but how very close the 3rd-9th place group is. 

It's also relevant to trade considerations, I think, because for 6th-9th place teams that are only a couple of games behind the wildcard, those teams seem more likely to be talking as buyers than as sellers.  And even the 3 teams tied for 12th-14th place are only 7 games back.  An aggressive GM might talk himself into thinking that one or two trade additions and a hot-streak might put his team right into the wildcard mix before August is done. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 24, 2019, 08:40:00 pm
The Braves have a 5 game lead, that could disappear with 1 bad week.

The once playoff certain Twins lead is down to 2.5 games.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on July 24, 2019, 08:49:45 pm
Wonder what Diekman would cost. Just watched him embarrass Austin Riley, Acuna and Albies. Seems like a guy Houston or the Dodgers will trade for.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 25, 2019, 05:14:40 am
What in the world are the Cubs waiting for with Happ?  He's producing at last, and what they have in the majors at the end of the roster is clearly not.  Seems very odd they wouldn't have given him a callup by now.  Surely a phantom injury to Descalso could be conjured up - hopefully one that could get him a rehab assignment where he can work on some things.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 25, 2019, 07:17:14 am
I believe if they wait until after the trade deadline or so they get an extra year of control.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 25, 2019, 12:17:49 pm
Cubs are calling up Happ.


https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1827167001?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 25, 2019, 12:19:22 pm
I believe if they wait until after the trade deadline or so they get an extra year of control.
Cubs are calling up Happ.
  Shoots the hell out of that theory.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 25, 2019, 12:20:48 pm
Always happy to be wrong...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 25, 2019, 12:25:12 pm
That should improve the Cubs for the obvious reason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 25, 2019, 12:29:09 pm
Always happy to be wrong...
That should improve the Cubs for the obvious reason.
Good one, P2.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 25, 2019, 12:33:10 pm
I was wrong on the dates anyway.  They wouldn't get the extra year of control until 8/30.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 25, 2019, 12:39:47 pm
I wonder what the corresponding move will be. Descalso phantom (or real) injury? Almora demotion? Trade one of the catchers or Garcia?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 25, 2019, 12:43:35 pm
I believe there was talk of sending a pitcher down instead of Russell, but Lester's illness scuttled that. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 25, 2019, 12:45:30 pm
Descalso DFA most likely.  A pitcher on the Des Moines train.  Bryant DL? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 25, 2019, 12:48:23 pm
I don't expect Descalso to be DFA'd.  More likely, his ankle injury just flared up again.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 25, 2019, 01:29:02 pm
CubsInsider names David Bote as another Iowa possibility.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 25, 2019, 01:38:37 pm
Who would be the backup shortstop if they sent Bote to Iowa?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 25, 2019, 01:48:16 pm
No way Bote goes to Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 25, 2019, 04:24:37 pm
With Russell's status with the team presumably up in the air, is there anyone in the system who would be a remotely adequate backup SS?  It seems like the Cubs might be looking to acquire a legitimate SS as a backup, particularly in case he gets injured.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 25, 2019, 04:29:19 pm
That should improve the Cubs for the obvious reason.

I don't have a ton of faith in Happ, but it would have been inexcusable to put this off any longer.  Absolutely have to give it a shot.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 25, 2019, 04:47:59 pm
With Russell's status with the team presumably up in the air, is there anyone in the system who would be a remotely adequate backup SS?  It seems like the Cubs might be looking to acquire a legitimate SS as a backup, particularly in case he gets injured.

I haven't been tracking this, so may be missing some nuance or rumor or something?  But if the Cubs have Russell at Iowa for baseball and professionalism reasons, I don't see why he's not still viable as SS backup? 

If Baez doesn't get hurt, he needs no backup.  If he does, Russell will be back before the next game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 25, 2019, 05:26:10 pm
Bote would be fine to fill in for a game as a bridge to Russell returning.  No need to worry about a backup SS given all the other needs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 25, 2019, 05:29:35 pm
I imagine that if the Cubs were to trade Russell before the deadline, they would get someone that can play shortstop at the MLB level if necessary, as part or all of the trade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 25, 2019, 05:50:11 pm
Zach Short would seem to be the top option outside of Russell. Giambrone would be another option besides Bote.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 25, 2019, 05:57:34 pm
Bryant is often overlooked as the versatile athlete he is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on July 25, 2019, 06:25:26 pm
I haven't been tracking this, so may be missing some nuance or rumor or something?  But if the Cubs have Russell at Iowa for baseball and professionalism reasons, I don't see why he's not still viable as SS backup? 

If Baez doesn't get hurt, he needs no backup.  If he does, Russell will be back before the next game.

I'm guessing Russell's days with the Cubs are numbered, one way or the other.  He wasn't in a great position given his domestic violence issues anyway and I found Joe's very strong criticism of Russell to the media to be pretty extraordinary. I cannot recall a single instance that Joe was so publicly critical of a player in all the time he's been with the Cubs. I suspect that the Cubs would really like to find a deal in which they could trade Russell. I could be wrong, of course.

Baez is going to need some days off. If Russell is not available for whatever reason, I suppose Bote can cover those days, though the defense with Bote at SS and Garcia at 2B will be highly questionable up the middle.  And if Baez were to get injured, I think Maddon and the Cubs brass might not be thrilled with relying on Russell as his replacement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 25, 2019, 06:41:46 pm
I think you are correct re Russell, Ron.  Joe's clearly negative comments about Russell's lack of baseball focus are unprecedented, at least in his Cub years.

However, another future possibility is that Russell gets his baseball act together playing every day at Iowa, while Garcia struggles mightily as the long season progresses and/or other teams pitch him tougher.

I can certainly imagine a scenario in which Russell is playing 2b again for the Cubs on an every-day basis.  We shall see.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on July 25, 2019, 08:02:47 pm
Thanks, Ron and ben. I trust your take. Yeah, if Maddon criticized Russell as you describe, that completely unprecedented. 

Ben, you mention the lack of baseball focus.  Theo talked a lot about the counseling commitment to improve Russell's inner life, and about how the opportunity to help society was more important than winning baseball games.  Perhaps when other players are thinking about optimizing their baseball play, Russell is pondering his counseling sessions, and his inner life?  There was also no explicit mention of addressing his alcohol problems.  I assume that was included within his counseling and personal rehabilitation plan; but alcohol can be a distraction from baseball-focus, too?

In retrospect, from a baseball perspective, Hoyer probably would have been better combining the Russell and Descalzo money, and signing a relief pitcher or CFer with those dollars.  But, that's retrospect, and I think Theo had a higher motive in trying to impact a human being.   

Does seem somewhat unlikely that they'll resign the poor guy again this winter, though... 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 25, 2019, 08:55:18 pm
Craig, I agree that the Cubs are very unlikely to re-sign Russell...particularly with Boras as his agent, I think his days as a Cub are nearly over.

It's hard to imagine trying to hit mid-90s FBs and breaking pitches that start at one's head without any personal problems...as Craig points out, it's highly likely his personal issues remain, to at least some extent, a significant complication that's a drain on his baseball focus and energy.

I won't be shocked if, with some years of maturity, Russell morphs into an All-Star middle infielder again...but I don't think that will occur with the Cubs and I think the Cubs moving on from Russell will probably be a good thing for all parties.

It's been a sad story in a year with others (e.g. Zobrist) for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 25, 2019, 10:20:15 pm
Wonder if the Cubs could try to pry Thor loose from the Mets with a package centered around Quintana and Hoerner.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 25, 2019, 10:55:48 pm
Wonder if the Cubs could try to pry Thor loose from the Mets with a package centered around Quintana and Hoerner.
I suggested something similar a couple days ago.  Q has a great contract, but when we talk about playoffs, he's #5.

Frankly, I'd rather the Cubs made NO move if they don't make a BOLD move.  Some RP nobody ever heard of for one of our A leaguers doesn't cut it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 25, 2019, 11:50:47 pm
I suggested something similar a couple days ago.  Q has a great contract, but when we talk about playoffs, he's #5.

Frankly, I'd rather the Cubs made NO move if they don't make a BOLD move.  Some RP nobody ever heard of for one of our A leaguers doesn't cut it.

Well, we were told Q was worth Jimenez and Cease because of that contract, so surely the Mets believe it too?

Syndergard is hardly the most valuable SP around given his durability issues, but he's still got a couple years of control and the kind of stuff that could shut down any offense in an October/November matchup.  Surely it'd take a lot more than Quintana but I'd at least kick the tires.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 26, 2019, 09:06:26 am
There has been some speculation that the flattening of the seams has decreased the effectiveness of Syndergaard’s slider and that has been the problem with his struggles this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 26, 2019, 09:27:34 am
Well, we were told Q was worth Jimenez and Cease because of that contract, so surely the Mets believe it too?

Q may have been worth Jimenez and Cease because of his contract and prior performance, but that contract now has 2 years less to run.  And his performance during these last two years have been much worse than his prior performance would have led the Cubs to expect.  Quintana isn't likely to be the centerpiece of what the Cubs would have to offer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 26, 2019, 09:29:41 am
There has been some speculation that the flattening of the seams has decreased the effectiveness of Syndergaard’s slider and that has been the problem with his struggles this year.

Woudn't the flattening of the seams have had the same effect on every pitcher's slider?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 26, 2019, 09:46:58 am
Q may have been worth Jimenez and Cease because of his contract and prior performance, but that contract now has 2 years less to run.  And his performance during these last two years have been much worse than his prior performance would have led the Cubs to expect.  Quintana isn't likely to be the centerpiece of what the Cubs would have to offer.
Would the Sox trade us back EITHER Cease or Eloy for Quintana?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 26, 2019, 11:23:09 am
Woudn't the flattening of the seams have had the same effect on every pitcher's slider?

Depending on the grip he uses no.  It has gone from a plus pitch previously to a negative value pitch this year.  Again it was just speculation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 26, 2019, 01:08:07 pm
I predict Thor to the Cardinals, Brewers or Padres while the Cubs have their thmbs up their...I guess it would be okay if he went to the Pads.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: vander-built on July 26, 2019, 01:33:09 pm
Cubs acquire Derek Holland
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 26, 2019, 01:36:36 pm
LIAB LOL
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 26, 2019, 01:39:03 pm
Announced as Holland and cash to Cubs and cash to Giants...which seems oddly written.

Collins DFA'ed
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 26, 2019, 01:39:12 pm

Jordan Bastian
Cubs: LHP Derek Holland and cash acquired from San Francisco for cash considerations.

Jesse Rogers
Holland .182/.276 BA/OBP against lefties this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 26, 2019, 01:40:01 pm
Hope the Giants are paying for him--he's got something like $2.5 million left on his contract for this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 26, 2019, 01:42:12 pm
Maybe Cash is capitalized.  Any minor leaguers in ths SF system named Cash?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 26, 2019, 01:44:21 pm
I'm sure that a guy DFA'd by a losing team in the middle of a surge will be a huge help.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on July 26, 2019, 01:44:44 pm
This year's Dan Haren - a midseason acquisition badly in need of a haircut.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 26, 2019, 01:45:32 pm
Holland has been pretty horrible as a starter and reliever this year, hopefully the Giants cash covers the majority of his salary.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 26, 2019, 02:33:02 pm
Andrew Baggarly  @extrabaggs   32m32 minutes ago
The cash-for-cash in the Derek Holland deal probably has something to do with the $500,000 buyout on his option for next season. Cubs are over the luxury tax this year. So they're probably covering the buyout and getting the Giants to pay down a chunk of 2019 salary.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on July 26, 2019, 02:48:57 pm
Possibly international signing $$???  Just throwing another possibility out there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 26, 2019, 03:29:53 pm
Montgomery's replacement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 26, 2019, 06:04:18 pm
Zobrist will start a rehab assignment next weekend. Seems like the timing could be setting him up for spending the full 30 days on the rehab assignment then coming up when rosters expand.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 26, 2019, 06:09:49 pm
Morrow or Zobrist contributing meaningfully in 2019 - which is the bigger longshot?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 26, 2019, 06:17:28 pm
Morrow
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 26, 2019, 06:31:36 pm
Jarrod Dyson drawing a lot of trade interest. Cubs and others. Again, Dbacks not yet a committed seller.--Heyman

I like speed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 26, 2019, 07:45:56 pm
Theo asked if this was it for Russell as a Cub (not that he would admit if it was) : “I wouldn’t say that. That move (demotion) doesn’t necessarily carry any permanence. We expect him to be back.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 27, 2019, 03:04:00 pm
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs  23m23 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed INF Daniel Descalso on the 10-day IL (retroactive to July 24) with a left ankle sprain.


LHP Derek Holland has been added to the 25-man roster.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 27, 2019, 06:22:32 pm
About 2 months too late.

Get him some ABs at Iowa and see if he can figure something out.  He's honestly nowhere near this bad.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 28, 2019, 08:03:01 am
MLB.com suggests Hanser Alberto as a fit for the Cubs.  Not much power and never takes a walk, but he's hit very well against lefties this season and seems to be average or better everywhere on the infield, so I could see the interest.  Problem is he's signed through 2023 and cheap, so not sure why the O's would bother dealing him unless they get better prospects than he's worth back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 28, 2019, 12:07:37 pm
Russell scratched from Iowa’s lineup. Tommy Birch said a source says it is nothing. Sogard scratched from Toronto ‘s line up and Robert Murray thinks the Cubs will trade Maldonado. Maybe Maldonado for Kemp+?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 28, 2019, 04:07:18 pm
Dixon Machado (2b/ss) is having one heckuva year at Iowa...basically, outperforming EVERYONE there...he's in his 27 season and has never hit much, but he seems to have grown into his 6'1 body a bit this year and hit 2 HRs today put him at 15 HRs, 31 XBHs, .270+ avg., flirting with .400 OBP, near .500 SLG and near .900 OPS.

Seems like he can likely field as he's also played a lot of SS, but I don't really know about his fielding.  With Russell taking his time to show up to play 2b (??) and Cubs struggling at the top of the order with Garcia, maybe it's time to promote this guy.  Let Russell outperform one or both of Garcia and Machado, if he can.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 28, 2019, 04:33:18 pm
Hammel's rehab start with Iowa today:

3-3-3-3-3-4, 2 HR
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 28, 2019, 05:28:57 pm
He was never very good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 28, 2019, 08:58:02 pm
Multiple reports the Cubs are now trying to re-trade Maldonado, LOL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 28, 2019, 10:39:19 pm









DEEG, IT'S STILL HERE.  ARE YOU GETTING IT?



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 28, 2019, 11:06:33 pm
For some reason this went to the recycle bin.  Dave, is that what you wanted?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 28, 2019, 11:50:43 pm
I see it but it won't let me reply to your message for some reason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 28, 2019, 11:52:42 pm
Refresh your browser.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 29, 2019, 04:09:44 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/29/the-cubs-are-reportedly-intent-on-getting-a-leadoff-guy-names-mentioned-dyson-peralta-inciarte/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 29, 2019, 04:24:51 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/29/the-cubs-are-reportedly-intent-on-getting-a-leadoff-guy-names-mentioned-dyson-peralta-inciarte/

Are Dyson, Inciarte, and Peralta supposed to be solutions to wanting to add a leadoff guy?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 29, 2019, 04:49:27 pm
Peralta not so much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 29, 2019, 05:38:00 pm
Are Dyson, Inciarte, and Peralta supposed to be solutions to wanting to add a leadoff guy?

Unless Dyson has almost literally no cost in terms of talent, I fail to see the appeal.

As for Inciarte, you have to ask yourself why a first place team like the Braves would be shopping him - if indeed they are.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 29, 2019, 05:43:21 pm
Not just a first place team...but also a first place team that just lost Markakis for most (if not all) of the rest of the season.

He’s been a bad hitter for two years now. He’s basically a LH Almora.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 29, 2019, 06:02:14 pm
Not just a first place team...but also a first place team that just lost Markakis for most (if not all) of the rest of the season.

He’s been a bad hitter for two years now. He’s basically a LH Almora.

With the caveat that if he’s healthy (and his D metrics are way down this year) he’s a much better defender than Almora.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 29, 2019, 06:14:36 pm
(https://assets.cubsinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/29114331/cubs_walk.png?ezimgfmt=ng:webp/ngcb1:small)

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/07/29/cubs-team-walk-rate-has-dropped-dramatically-since-may/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 29, 2019, 07:30:11 pm
The Cubs and Yankees have scouts here tonight, presumably looking at Toronto reliever Ken Giles and Royals outfielder Billy Hamilton (bench asset).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 29, 2019, 08:31:37 pm
Inciarte is owed just a bit more more money than Chatwood over a longer time frame. If the Braves would do a straight up swap and cover the difference I could see it. It would free up some money this year and next for the Cubs. It gets the Braves out a year early.  I wouldn’t get be up an asset for him though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 29, 2019, 09:21:13 pm
Inciarte had 18.6 bWAR from 2014-2018, a five- year period. That’s 3.72 per season.

Was 3.4 bWAR (2.9 fWAR) just last season. That’s a really good player over five seasons.

Obviously, he’s been hurt this season and, so far in 2019, diminished. If anybody is privy to his current medicals, please share. It would tell us a lot going forward.

I would not get carried away by Bruce Levine speculating. If a notable national writer reports Inciarte on the block, that would be different. Going to be very surprised if Inciarte is traded, much less for a bag of beans. When healthy, he’s really good. Nobody is worth much if they’re hurt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 29, 2019, 10:04:19 pm
The Cubs and Yankees have scouts here tonight, presumably looking at Toronto reliever Ken Giles and Royals outfielder Billy Hamilton (bench asset).

Do teams really still send scouts out to watch veteran MLB players before the deadline to help make decisions? Would the Cubs really learn anything new about Ken Giles from one appearance after 5 years in the league and 35 previous appearances this year? Or Billy Hamilton, who we all know is just a pinch runner and defensive replacement on a good team?

Or is the guy who tweeted this just carrying water for some team that benefits from having this information out there?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 29, 2019, 10:21:50 pm
Yes, they do.  Teams want to know if some obvious tick can be detected, like is he tipping his pitches, are his mechanics messed up, is he limping or grimacing with movement.   Sometimes they're just looking for bargaining points.  Sometimes it's to see who else is really interested.  It's simple due diligence, but probably hasn't had a big impact in years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 29, 2019, 11:40:04 pm
Based on conversations today, it seems as though the Red Sox, Nationals, Dodgers and Cubs are the most aggressive teams out there looking for bullpen help. The Braves are, too, though an outfielder currently appears to be Atlanta's top priority.--Feinsand
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 30, 2019, 12:01:12 am
Probably Amaya, an arm like Abbott or Uelman, and a short-season player with upside (Pacheco/Martinez/Pertuz) for Giles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 12:17:15 am
Giles is hurt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 30, 2019, 01:03:27 pm
Jesse Rogers says Pedro Strop is likely going on the IL tonight, and Duane Underwood will likely be the replacement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 30, 2019, 01:15:32 pm
Do teams really still send scouts out to watch veteran MLB players before the deadline to help make decisions? Would the Cubs really learn anything new about Ken Giles from one appearance after 5 years in the league and 35 previous appearances this year? Or Billy Hamilton, who we all know is just a pinch runner and defensive replacement on a good team?

Or is the guy who tweeted this just carrying water for some team that benefits from having this information out there?

According to Keith Law it is to determine health in most cases.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 30, 2019, 01:27:13 pm
Jesse Rogers says Pedro Strop is likely going on the IL tonight, and Duane Underwood will likely be the replacement.

Cubs carrying 9 relievers and 4 starters—until Hamels returns. So, if it’s Underwood, perhaps a short stay.

One would think Strop’s likely IL status opens up a spot for a trade. Even not counting Strop (or Underwood), still 8 relievers are here. So, somebody else would have to go or optioned. Seems like Wick and Ryan too important to be optioned. Kimbrel, Cishek, Kintzler not going anywhere. Holland just got here. That leaves Chatwood and Brach. Cubs have mutual option with Brach for 2020, guessing they’d like to keep him if they can.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 30, 2019, 01:29:28 pm
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Breaking: According to a source, the Cubs are about to acquire RHP David Phelps from Toronto for minor league pitcher Thomas Hatch
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 30, 2019, 01:45:00 pm
Phelps mostly cutter/curve.

4 and 2 seamers around 92.

His Statcast page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-phelps-475479
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 30, 2019, 01:53:48 pm
Phelps had a bad outing on Sunday (3 er) but, before that, has been good since he was activated in mid-June—especially his previous 7 outings (1 hit, 0 runs).

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 30, 2019, 01:55:53 pm
Phelps has an option for next year too.
2020 Club Option escalates based on games played
less than 30: $1M
30-39: $3M
40-49: $5M
50, with less than 40 finished: $7M
50, with more than 40 finished: $8M
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 30, 2019, 01:57:47 pm
BIG MOVE
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 02:09:09 pm
That's nothing but a depth move.

Im hoping we do better than Holland and Phelps.

If we dont we aint winning the division.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 30, 2019, 02:29:50 pm
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Breaking: According to a source, the Cubs are about to acquire RHP David Phelps from Toronto for minor league pitcher Thomas Hatch


Can he hit?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 30, 2019, 02:42:57 pm
To make room for Phelps on the 40-man roster, LHP Xavier Cedeño has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 03:11:15 pm
Hunter Pence and his great comeback story are drawing interest. Cubs, Rays, Braves, maybe Indians are among logical possibilities.-Heyman
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 30, 2019, 04:31:38 pm
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-phelps-is-now-a-cub/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 30, 2019, 06:25:50 pm
Phelps seems like a better version of Brach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on July 30, 2019, 06:32:04 pm
Damning with faint praise.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 30, 2019, 06:52:11 pm
Suggested Pence several days back, he does check a lot of boxes.  If indeed the Cubs "can't afford" Castellanos' salary, Pence seems to make the most sense as a LHP specialist.  How he'd hold up playing the OF 4-5 days a week is a legit concern but when you have no money to spend and nothing much to offer in trade, you're not going to get a perfect fit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 06:52:57 pm
You all may discount this but MLB The Show keeps the rosters and ratings updated almost weekly and they dont think Phelps is anywhere near Brach.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 06:54:06 pm
I want Dyson or Inciarte.

We need a leadoff man.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 30, 2019, 06:55:11 pm
"But my baseball people love David Phelps' arm. They kept saying 'David Phelps, David Phelps'."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 30, 2019, 07:17:27 pm
I want Dyson or Inciarte.

We need a leadoff man.

Those aren’t good leadoff men. Inciarte is currently hitting at the bottom of the Braves lineup, and Dyson has never gotten on base consistently.

The Cubs need to either stick to the scrap heap and try to get lucky or they need to do something really big like pay for a hitter that reall shakes the team up. Middling guys like Dyson or Inciarte don’t really move the needle for this team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on July 30, 2019, 07:19:25 pm
Who's the best leadoff hitter in the game right now?

Kris Bryant for that guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 30, 2019, 07:23:23 pm
I'd bat Javy leadoff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on July 30, 2019, 08:50:08 pm
Healthy Darvish is filthy...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on July 31, 2019, 08:31:08 am
I'd bat Heyward there and quit playing him in center. He doesn't help the team there and weakens two positions defensively. In a perfect world the line-up would go Heyward, Bryant Rizzo Javy Schwarber Conteras but KB has stated his comfort batting 3rd and is one of the few guys not on the downswing right now. Perhaps Willson in the two hole with everyone moving down a spot. Of course the real issue isn't line-up construction. The problem is most players not hitting on the road. The biggest problem is the second base and center field black holes. Too many auto outs there and no bench whatsoever.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 31, 2019, 09:02:05 am
We should trade for Garrett.  At least he has some fire and pride.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 31, 2019, 09:10:47 am
Heyward , in the past, said he is uncomfortable hitting lead off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 31, 2019, 09:45:15 am
How about the Greatest Leadoff Hitter of All Time?

Of course, losing Rizzo's bat in the middle of the lineup would totally suck, but neither Bryant not Heyward wants to do it, neither Javy nor Contreras is a great candidate for it and there's nothing wrong with having a top hitter getting 5 ABs in a game (vs Robel Garcia, who was absolutely abused yesterday and likely is in the wrong league).

I'm sure Rizzo doesn't really want to do it, but he's certainly proven he can and will, and we have ZERO other legit candidates as of this moment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 31, 2019, 10:41:26 am
Heyman with an obvious tweet:

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Cubs would love Whit Merrifield. But the asking price has always been enormous and is said to remain so. KC loves him too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on July 31, 2019, 10:48:05 am
Just like last year in Sept...lose 2-1...WTF. That Bryant K and Heyward caught stealing was a killer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 31, 2019, 11:55:59 am
The Maldonado era is over:

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Astros acquire catcher Martín Maldonado from #Cubs, sources tell The Athletic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on July 31, 2019, 11:58:59 am
The Maldonado era is over:

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Astros acquire catcher Martín Maldonado from #Cubs, sources tell The Athletic.


I’m interested to see what we got for Montgomery.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 31, 2019, 12:01:23 pm
The Cubs are getting Tony Kemp in the trade. He's a decent bench option...basically a league average hitter since the start of last season. He has played some second base and all three outfield spots.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 31, 2019, 02:55:24 pm
Christopher Kamka  @ckamka  3h3 hours ago
Tony Kemp (5'6") would be the shortest #Cubs player since Al Montreuil (5'5") played 5 games at second base in 1972. (Heights courtesy of @baseball_ref)

Hack Wilson was 5'6"
Tony Campana was 5'8"
Augie Ojeda was 5'9"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 02:59:48 pm
At one point Cubs and Detroit were close to dealing Nick Castellanos for minor league catcher Jhonny Pereda .
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 03:01:07 pm
Well at least St. Louis and Milwaukee didnt do **** either.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 03:02:39 pm
With one minute remaining before the trade deadline, Nick Castellanos has entered the Tigers dugout in uniform, where his name remains on the lineup card posted on the dugout wall.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 31, 2019, 03:13:12 pm
Castellanos to Cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 31, 2019, 03:13:55 pm
Says Rosenthal.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on July 31, 2019, 03:15:05 pm
The nature of the return will be a good indicator as to whether Theo is in panic mode.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on July 31, 2019, 03:18:45 pm
Phelps in, Underwood out.

Kemp and Castellanos in, either Garcia or Happ out.  Which?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 31, 2019, 03:19:59 pm
I hope it is Garcia.  Any word on what we gave for Castellanos?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robert L on July 31, 2019, 03:21:24 pm

Craig Mish

@CraigMish

Paul Richan and Alex Lange go from the Cubs to Tigers for Castellanos.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on July 31, 2019, 03:22:29 pm
Seems like too much for someone I don’t feel will be a major upgrade.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on July 31, 2019, 03:30:06 pm
I don’t think that’s a big price myself.  Lange’s been pretty disappointing from the get go, and Richan probably is a middle of the rotation prospect at best.  You’ve got to be willing to let prospects like that go if you’re a contender.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on July 31, 2019, 03:34:54 pm
Castellanos is going to crush it in wrigley. He is one of the most underrated hitters out there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 03:44:12 pm
When you consider Theo pretty much added Castellanos and Kimbrel at the deadline who did better?

Definitely no one in the NL Central.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 31, 2019, 03:49:52 pm
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs also traded Carl Edwards Jr. to the Padres, per source
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 31, 2019, 03:51:30 pm
Lange might be a decent middle reliever.  We have several others with about the same potential.  I thing Richan was under rated, and probably was the better of the two prospects.  But certainly was not an overpay by the Cubs.

Is Castellanos a free agent after this year?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on July 31, 2019, 03:52:09 pm
To clear a spot on the 40?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on July 31, 2019, 03:53:10 pm
I don’t think that’s a big price myself.  Lange’s been pretty disappointing from the get go, and Richan probably is a middle of the rotation prospect at best.  You’ve got to be willing to let prospects like that go if you’re a contender.

I would be more than happy with the deal if this wasn’t a “walk year” for Castellanos but it is.  I don’t think he is a big enough upgrade to put us over the top. As such moving assets for a half season of a guy who won’t put us over the top this year and likely won’t be around next year seems to be a waste of decent assets.

I would imagine the initial trade for Pereda included less money from the Tigers. By giving Richan and Lange Im guessing they received more money from the Tigers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 03:53:30 pm
Good luck to Edwards in the future.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 31, 2019, 03:54:36 pm
Doesn't seem unreasonable to give up two prospects in the 15-30 range for Castellanos.  The Cubs had to make a move of some kind to improve offensively.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on July 31, 2019, 03:57:52 pm
Who did they get for Edwards?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on July 31, 2019, 03:59:57 pm
Castellanos will be a major help against lefties, for sure. Will be interesting to see how much playing time against righties he gets, as he’s not great against them, and you’re not going to sit Schwarber or Heyward against righties. Meanwhile, Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos is a brutal defensive OF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 31, 2019, 04:00:32 pm
Cubs got Brad Wieck for Edwards.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on July 31, 2019, 04:03:00 pm
Wieck a 6’9” lefty with good stuff but wild and homer prone.

Sounds like a good change of scenery trade for both teams, and nice to convert Edwards into a lefty arm.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on July 31, 2019, 04:03:05 pm
Some of our 2016 heroes are starting to go by the wayside.

Tip of the hat to Edwards for some quality seasons he’s had for us in the past, but it was time to move on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 31, 2019, 04:04:03 pm
27 year old lefty that throws 94 and strikes people out.  He has a huge issues with HR this year though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 04:09:51 pm
Castellanos is essentially Javy Baez vs. LHP this season:

Castellanos: .347/.415/.611 (1.026 OPS)
Javy: .342/.384/.709 (1.093 OPS)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on July 31, 2019, 04:10:54 pm
Given the players available and costs, I think the Cubs did a decent job at the deadline. Kimbrel is obviously a huge addition, Castellanos will be great against lefties, and all of the other guys (Kemp, Phelps, etc.) are useful additions that didn’t cost anything we’ll miss. Sucks trading our 2017 #1 pick for a few months of Castellanos, but the screw up was with the pick itself, not in trading Lange now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on July 31, 2019, 04:10:59 pm
Castellanos has complained about the dimensions of Comerica taking home runs from him. I wonder if it also could hurt his defensive metrics. Is there anywhere you can see home/road defensive splits?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 31, 2019, 04:26:07 pm
Castellanos has complained about the dimensions of Comerica taking home runs from him. I wonder if it also could hurt his defensive metrics. Is there anywhere you can see home/road defensive splits?

His home/road splits are basically neutral as a Tiger, FWIW.

Not an insignificant cost in Richan and Lange, but I'm OK with that - Cadtellanos is a good hitter, especially vs. lefties. Also like the Kemp move actually - he's a very useful bench piece.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 31, 2019, 04:35:20 pm
To make room for Castellanos on the 40-man roster, RHP Oscar De La Cruz was designated for assignment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on July 31, 2019, 04:37:02 pm
The Cubs didn't trade anything that they miss and made the team better.  Kemp is going to be a nice utility guy for a few years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on July 31, 2019, 04:45:36 pm
It's probably too early to think about this, but I wouldn't mind keeping Castellanos around beyond this season.

He'll always be a Chicago hero, but I'm ready to move on from Schwarber.  I think the sample size is large enough to where we can be certain that he's never going to be Lance Berkman.

A guy with Castellanos' profile is not likely to get a huge deal on the free agent market.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 31, 2019, 04:46:48 pm
Jason Beck  @beckjason  10m10 minutes ago
Castellanos deal finalized 40 seconds before 4pm Trade Deadline, according to Al Avila on @FOXSportsDet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 31, 2019, 05:26:21 pm
Patrick Mooney:

Source: Detroit kicked in roughly $500,000 to complete the Nick Castellanos deal, so the Cubs will take on about $2.5 million of his salary. With a chance for more October baseball at Wrigley Field, Tom Ricketts stretched the budget for baseball operations
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on July 31, 2019, 05:46:54 pm
So, with the acquisitions, Cubs will have a 5-man bench—one too many—and 9 relievers—until Hamels returns.

Would seem to be either Garcia or Happ to be optioned. Guessing Garcia?

As to the bullpen, not a clear candidate. Maybe somebody will discover they are injured. Seems like Wick is now a key guy and figures to stay. Guessing that Brach starts feeling discomfort of some kind.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on July 31, 2019, 05:48:25 pm
The Cubs are sacrificing defense for more offense, but they didn't really have much choice.  If the offense gets humming, the defensive weakness of Heyward in CF and Castellanos in RF shouldn't be limiting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on July 31, 2019, 06:03:31 pm
It may be a Castellanos/Schwarber platoon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 31, 2019, 06:28:59 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA1xhVzW4AAXafx.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on July 31, 2019, 06:58:14 pm
Hoyer on Edwards Jr. : "There's no other way to say it but we felt like it was time for a change of scenery."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on July 31, 2019, 07:04:51 pm
Castellanos has been wearing #9.    That number is taken with the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on July 31, 2019, 10:32:05 pm
Christopher Kamka  @ckamka  3h3 hours ago
Tony Kemp (5'6") would be the shortest #Cubs player since Al Montreuil (5'5") played 5 games at second base in 1972. (Heights courtesy of @baseball_ref)

Hack Wilson was 5'6"
Tony Campana was 5'8"
Augie Ojeda was 5'9"

Mike Fontenot claimed to be 5' 7" but I think he was shorter than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 31, 2019, 10:33:00 pm
Anyone who thinks Castellanos is a straight platoon is way off. He’ll play at least 80% of the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 31, 2019, 11:09:03 pm
Castellanos is a poor defender and has been below replacement level this season vs RH pitching, however, he continues to crush lefties.  I'll certainly hope we can catch lightning in a bottle and he crushes every pitcher the rest of this season!

Castellanos WILL want to play every day to audition for free agency.

Joe will have his work cut out making Castellanos and our other outfielders feel good about whatever their new roles will be.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on July 31, 2019, 11:19:43 pm
Almora should feel good that he still has a job in the major leagues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on July 31, 2019, 11:29:34 pm
Hey JeffH, I don't think it's fair comparing Schwarber to the great Lance Berkman and being disappointed that he's a far cry from what Berkman was.

Lance Berkman was one of the very finest hitters in baseball for MANY years and very few top prospects will ever get near his offensive prowess.  However, I think it's fair to hope Kyle can morph into a Max Muncy offensive player down the road a bit...still hit the 30+ bombs, but get his average up around .260, OBP to .350+. 

Schwarber still only has 1,400+ ABs and it's very possible that in the next year or two his numbers get significantly better.  Of course, if we have a good trade opportunity with him down the road, Cubs may need to go for it...but it would need to be a "good" opportunity. 

Schwarber still comes up big at times (e.g. Sunday) and there's NO doubt that he's a fabulous teammate...and that matters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 01, 2019, 01:29:55 am
When you consider that unless the Cubs pull off a miracle and make the WS (and even then, maybe) Theo is going to be under extreme pressure to do what he implied he needed to do last winter - blow up the offense and rebuild it - his options seem pretty limited.  Rizzo makes no sense as he's on a team-friendly deal and the best high-leverage hitter on the roster.  Baez is the rising star of the team.  Contreras is a C, and contending teams don't trade catchers who hit like he does.

I think that's why you hear so much chatter about Bryant, despite the fact that when healthy he puts up such big numbers.  Who else do you move?  Schwarber is an obvious candidate but probably pretty limited in what he'd bring back.  Almora and Happ have little to no trade value.  Heyward is still untradeable.  It would be nice to think the Cubs would sign big-money FAs to upgrade 2B and CF, but I don't think thats realistic - some salary is going to have to go out and even then, at least one acquisition come via trade rather than free agency.  And Bryant figures to leave via FA himself and get you nothing but a pick in compensation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 01, 2019, 07:06:11 am
Castellanos will start against LHP, but I suspect he will be a part time player against RHP, allowing Heyward to get some starts in RF.  I suppose Castellanos may play some LF vs. LHP which also allows Heyward to start in RF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 01, 2019, 08:36:29 am
Maddon: Robel Garcia will be optioned to AAA Iowa to clear a roster spot for Castellanos on Thursday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 01, 2019, 08:54:02 am
When you consider that unless the Cubs pull off a miracle and make the WS (and even then, maybe) Theo is going to be under extreme pressure to do what he implied he needed to do last winter - blow up the offense and rebuild it - his options seem pretty limited.  Rizzo makes no sense as he's on a team-friendly deal and the best high-leverage hitter on the roster.  Baez is the rising star of the team.  Contreras is a C, and contending teams don't trade catchers who hit like he does.

I think that's why you hear so much chatter about Bryant, despite the fact that when healthy he puts up such big numbers.  Who else do you move?  Schwarber is an obvious candidate but probably pretty limited in what he'd bring back.  Almora and Happ have little to no trade value.  Heyward is still untradeable.  It would be nice to think the Cubs would sign big-money FAs to upgrade 2B and CF, but I don't think thats realistic - some salary is going to have to go out and even then, at least one acquisition come via trade rather than free agency.  And Bryant figures to leave via FA himself and get you nothing but a pick in compensation.

I'm not sure I follow the logic.  If your offense is doing poorly, the best thing to do is to trade one of your best offensive player?  Who do you think you could get for Bryant that would end as a net increase in offensive production?  I imagine that we could get a great haul of prospects, but that would certainly decrease offensive production for the next year or two, no matter how good they are.

By the way, I am not against the concept of trading Bryant.  I agree that he will not sign a contract extension, and will test the free agent market, and the likelihood is that we will lose him.  I would much rather trade him with a year or two left, and bring in a large haul, than lose him with nothing to show for it.  But I don't see how it can be done without a temporary decrease, rather than increase in offensive production.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 01, 2019, 11:45:33 am
Who knows, but I'd guess we don't move Bryant until AFTER the 2020 season, if we can't re-sign him (which does seem doubtful) since he's under contract through 2021.

I'd guess Theo will really have the pedal to the metal all-in for the 2020 season!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 01, 2019, 11:47:08 am
You don't trade Bryant and still try and compete.  The Cubs will be worse if you trade him, because you won't get equal value back.  Deeg correctly identified the problem though for people that want to make huge changes to the team.  The guys you want to swap out don't have the value to improve the team by trading them. 

The Cubs will have around $60 million coming off the team in contracts and a new TV deal with more revenue for next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 01, 2019, 01:08:32 pm
Obviously, the lack of offensive development of Happ and Almora (and Schwarber) has hindered Cubs offense in 2019.

Very peculiar that Almora not hitting lefties this season since it seemed, at the least, he would be a good platoon guy. At times, he shows home run power, which is legit—just not often enough. Almora just seems to have a poor sense of how pitchers are working him from AB to AB. Not sure he’ll ever get that.

Happ seems in an earlier phase of development than Almora. Think he has offensive potential but also seems on the defensive in too many ABs. But, glad that Cubs hung on to him at trade deadline. Think he’ll hit eventually—indeed, he’s hit before.

Then, there’s Schwarber. His BABIP this season is .241. Clearly, hurt by the shift, among other things. Last year was .288 BABIP, better but still not so hot. With the .288 BABIP in 2018, Schwarber was basically Mike Napoli career OPS+, which is a solid offensive bat. Maybe Schwarber still has more to come, perhaps. At this point, we’d probably take a Napoli-like Schwarber.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 01, 2019, 02:27:44 pm
Castellanos will wear #6, last assigned to Carl Edwards.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 01, 2019, 04:23:04 pm
I don't think it'a a given you don't trade Bryant and still compete.  It depends on what you get back.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 01, 2019, 04:24:10 pm
Some Schwarber thoughts:
1.  Juiced ball should have helped a power guy who hits a fair number of highish fly balls.  He's kind of needed the juiced ball just to keep his numbers from dropping more sharply.  But relative to league, when everybody else is producing juice-ball-enhanced numbers, and yours are flat, you're getting worse relative to competition.
2.  OPS vs RHP:  .953-.814-.850-.818.  Even with juiced ball, he's nowhere near his better platoon seasons, and barely ahead of 2017 when he got sent to the minors. 
3.  Last year a narrative was that he'd been bad-luck, with hard-contact better than his OPS might reflect, so that reversion to the mean should help him.  Instead, it's his hard-contact that has reverted.

Schwarber used to pull a lot, and announcers would talk about how he does better when he uses the opposite field.  Often when he pulled but didn't launch, naturally he tended to ground it into the shift.  My subjective observation, is that Schwarber has really committed to slicing/flying to left.  Lots of really high balls, very high launch angle.  Not necessarily hard contact; sometimes I'm surprised when a ball that seems so high that it should be a pop or an easy fly, carries better than I expect and sometimes goes out; but most are high fly easy outs.  I wonder whether a chance-of-scenery, and having some different input from a different analytics group, might perhaps help him a little bit? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on August 01, 2019, 07:24:12 pm
Castellanos flips his old digit upside down, and Kemp takes the 21 vacated by Chatswood. Does Phelps have a number yet?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on August 01, 2019, 07:25:28 pm
Quote
The Cubs have -- by far -- the fewest singles in MLB when there's a man on 2nd base.

Not completely telling since we're not measuring other hits with a man on 2nd but it's telling enough. They have 81. Next fewest is 92


https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1157077365304045569
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 01, 2019, 08:28:07 pm
Who would’ve ever thought that a team that showed all these same problems in 2017-18 then didn’t make any changes would struggle again in 2019?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on August 01, 2019, 08:35:33 pm
Phelps is wearing #37 in honor of Ed Lynch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 01, 2019, 08:55:02 pm
I don't think it'a a given you don't trade Bryant and still compete.  It depends on what you get back.

You aren’t trading your best player and competing against the Astros and Dodgers. The Cubs would still be in the conversation for the Central, but they would be a less talented than the Nationals without Harper.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 01, 2019, 09:00:59 pm
You're probably not competing with the Astros and Dodgers even if you keep the best player. This is a very flawed team. Staying in the conversation for the Central is probably the best case scenario for this group.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 01, 2019, 10:26:22 pm
You aren’t trading your best player and competing against the Astros and Dodgers. The Cubs would still be in the conversation for the Central, but they would be a less talented than the Nationals without Harper.

Who said anything about trading Baez?

This team is broken, and Theo said so after last season - he just didn’t (or wasn’t allowed to) try and fix it. You aren’t going to get fundamental change by trading the likes of Russell and Almora and Happ.  Somewhere along the line there has to be a “shock to the system” type move, where a guy with real value is traded.  Bryant is the one who makes the most sense.  It’s going to hurt, it’s going to be painful, but it’s necessary to do something serious to change the makeup of this team.

Or you could stand pat again and hope the guys who aren’t performing perform up to the level you’ve decided they should, and hope an incredibly unbalanced lineup suddenly becomes balanced.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 01, 2019, 10:40:19 pm
Or you could stand pat again and hope the guys who aren’t performing perform up to the level you’ve decided they should, and hope an incredibly unbalanced lineup suddenly becomes balanced.

They've done it the last two offseasons. Why not try it a third time?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 01, 2019, 10:52:09 pm
aaaa...they respond to Maddon's message with a one hit performance.  Message: not received.

from ESPN:  ST. LOUIS -- Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon isn't fooling around. And neither are the trade-deadline additions to his club. While the fifth-year skipper integrates four new players into his clubhouse, he doesn't sound too worried about the playing-time ramifications for those already here.

"We just have to put out there what we consider to be the right thing to do," Maddon said before his team's 8-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night. "I can't be as aware, in a sense, as I was last year, in giving guys plate appearances and at-bats, developmentally speaking. We have two months to put our best foot forward. I will move guys in and out, but I don't feel as compelled to do it as I felt last year.

"It's big boy time."

That kind of rhetoric is a departure for Maddon, who always has used his entire roster and even has gone out of his way to talk up the flexibility of it. But the Cubs are in a dogfight -- entering Thursday's game, they were tied with St. Louis for first place in the National League Central -- and their struggles to separate within the division have increased the urgency. The Cubs are attempting to make the postseason for the fifth consecutive year.

"Guys that don't start can still conclude games defensively," Maddon said.

Without saying his name, that statement could be directed at Albert Almora Jr., who is a defensive whiz in center field but has struggled at the plate, posting a career-low .671 OPS this season entering Thursday. Almora was Theo Epstein's first draft pick when he took over the team in 2012, but draft status means nothing in a pennant race.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 01, 2019, 10:58:43 pm
I don't think it'a a given you don't trade Bryant and still compete.  It depends on what you get back.

I agree with that.

However, do you think that the Cubs would get someone in return for Bryant who will make the Cubs a better team in 2020?  Or are you looking for prospects that will improve the team in future years?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 01, 2019, 11:05:25 pm
I agree with that.

However, do you think that the Cubs would get someone in return for Bryant who will make the Cubs a better team in 2020?  Or are you looking for prospects that will improve the team in future years?

Ideally of course, you would want big league talent of a different sort than the Cubs currently have. But if you’re going to deal him where prospects are the headliner(s) coming back, they would have to be truly elite ones.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 02, 2019, 12:27:40 am
I wonder if Theo will want to oversee another rebuild, or would like to resign and let somebody else take over? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 01:19:27 am
I wonder if Theo will want to oversee another rebuild, or would like to resign and let somebody else take over? 

I don't think you have to rebuild, but retool.  But only if you have the balls to make some very hard decisions.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 08:02:15 am
Nobody is trading elite prospects for 1-2 years of Bryant. Nobody is trading somebody comparable to Bryant with more control for Bryant. The best you can hope for more quantity of lesser MLB players. Spreading out the WAR over multiple positions won’t improve the team.

This broken team is 3-4 against the Dodgers this year. If Baez, Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras keep hitting like Almora theodfense is broken. If they don’t the offense will be fine. The Cubs have an issue with home vs road this year. At home the Cubs have a 3.30ish ERA vs an ERA approaching 5 on the road. Fix the pitching and you will fix the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 02, 2019, 08:09:05 am
Ideally of course, you would want big league talent of a different sort than the Cubs currently have. But if you’re going to deal him where prospects are the headliner(s) coming back, they would have to be truly elite ones.

So the net result would be that the Cubs would be less competitive the year or so (at least) after the trade, since no one is going to give great prospects plus a MLB player of Bryant's performance level.  I have no problem with that, but I doubt that many on the board are willing to sacrifice the present for the future.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 02, 2019, 08:33:37 am
If Hoerner is ML ready next year, that might change the entire complexion of this team. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 02, 2019, 08:35:25 am
Adding Zobrist in August also might help:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/02/ben-zobrist-is-beginning-his-return-process-in-south-bend/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 08:40:58 am
So what would be a fair trade to retool the team?  Assuming similar contract lengths and stuff?   Chapman and Hendriks, Oak, for Bryant and ??  Bryant and Quintana to Boston for Devers and ??  Bryant to Houston for Bregman?  Schwarber to Cleveland for Puig?  Okay, not that one.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 08:52:54 am
If Hoerner is ML ready next year, that might change the entire complexion of this team. 

Hoerner has a .729 OPS in AA.  It's probably a stretch to think he could be an impact player next season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 10:20:53 am
So what would be a fair trade to retool the team?  Assuming similar contract lengths and stuff?   Chapman and Hendriks, Oak, for Bryant and ??  Bryant and Quintana to Boston for Devers and ??  Bryant to Houston for Bregman?  Schwarber to Cleveland for Puig?  Okay, not that one.   
You won't get Devers, Chapman or Bregman straight up for Bryant.  They have too much control left.

The 2016 Cubs had a +252 run differential.  The pitching staff is on pace to give up 704 runs this year.  To get the run differential the Cubs would have to score 956 runs which would be 14 more than what the Red Sox project to score as the top scoring team in MLB.  It would be 76 more runs than what the Dodgers are on pace to score.  It works out to 5.9 runs/game to get that run differential.  The Cubs current pace is 4.9 runs/game, the Dodgers are at 5.4/game.

Fix the pitching, which is about as challenging was fixing the offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 10:27:48 am
They have too much control left.   Boy, I wish I had put "assuming similar contract lengths and stuff."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 10:29:01 am
CBJ, the Cubs are very good at bludgeoning other teams once they're up by 6.  Otherwise, not so much.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 10:44:20 am
CBJ, MLB teams are very good at bludgeoning other teams once they're up by 6.  Otherwise, not so much.

Fixed it.

They have too much control left.   Boy, I wish I had put "assuming similar contract lengths and stuff."

Then what is the point of a trade for either team? 

Chapman, Devers, Bregman and Bryant are all right around each other so it would be a straight swap or the Cubs would be adding.  The hypothetical would be getting 2 3 WAR players or a 4 and 2 WAR player for Bryant.  Spreading WAR out will make the Cubs worse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 11:01:09 am
The whole idea, CBJ, is we need a remix .  A number of people on this board have noted it.  Theo has said it.  Maddon has hinted at it.  Writers and columnists have opined about it.  Other GMs have smirked about it.  MLB players and management  I respect have seen it.  But as we keep dropping closer and closer to PECOTA and take comfort in your run differential.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 02, 2019, 11:14:27 am
I don't think a total overhaul is needed.  Acquire a good all around second baseman with good contact and on base skills who can lead off.  That should be possible for 2020 with money coming off the books.  Figure out how to replace Hamels in the rotation.  I prefer an incremental approach rather than something extreme like trading Bryant for prospects.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 02, 2019, 11:14:42 am
I'm afraid anything they do this offseason is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

They need to fix the broken offense, solidify an aging rotation, and add a lot of relievers (other than Kimbrel and Ryan, is there anyone who has at least a 25% chance of being in the pen on opening day next year? Maybe Strop on a cheap prove-it deal?).

To address these issues, they have very limited budget. They have maybe four prospects who could bring back even an average major leaguer in a trade. And they have a bunch of guys that they probably should've traded 2-3 years ago when their value was at an all time high. They definitely need to be remixed, but I'm not sure how much good a remix can do if you don't have the value to bring back any type of game-changing player.

I think this core is done as a true top tier contender. They can work around the edges, maybe win another NL Central title or two before the bottom falls out...but they're not getting back to the Dodgers/Astros level.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 11:17:45 am
Cubs have to go 20-34 to reach PECOTA.

My issue isn't that the Cubs need to do something to stop the underachieving.  My issues are 1) The pitching sucks and they are getting a pass.  If the pitching was better the Cubs would be much better 2) Trading Bryant somehow makes this team better. 

I'd have no problem with changing LF, CF or 2B, but it isn't going to make the appreciably better unless you are adding a superstar.  If the Cubs starters have a 4.02/4.31/4.31 (ERA/FIP/xFIP)  NL avgerage starters are 4.39/4.40/4.40.  That is $100 million dollars for a league average rotation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 02, 2019, 11:17:54 am
I totally disagree, br.  Bryant, Contreras, Baez, and Rizzo (half our lineup) is as good as any nucleus in baseball.  Heyward is a good complementary piece.  Castellanos will hopefully be fine.  That leaves us looking for contributions from an OFer and second baseman.  Not an insurmountable problem and certainly not a reason to dismantle the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 11:37:09 am
The whole idea, CBJ, is we need a remix .  A number of people on this board have noted it.  Theo has said it.  Maddon has hinted at it.  Writers and columnists have opined about it.  Other GMs have smirked about it.  MLB players and management  I respect have seen it.  But as we keep dropping closer and closer to PECOTA and take comfort in your run differential.

Been reading posts about a “remix” but interesting (to me) that posters have no real ideas how to do that other than wholly unrealistic and silly suggestions about getting Matt Chapman or Bregman and the like.

Theo would love to get Merrifield, an ideal fit,  but we know would take inclusion of Marquez, among others, so raise your hand if you wanted that remix for the cost.

Out of 8 positions, Cubs getting really good seasons out of 5 guys/positions: Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Baez. You can quibble about Bryant RISP or Baez OBP or occasional slumps here and there, but all these guys have hit, in the aggregate.

Castellanos will hopefully take the Almora ABs and hit. That’s 6 spots out of 8.

Bote seems will get most of the 2B ABs now That should be okay. And, Schwarber with near .800 OPS in LF gets most of LF ABs. Okay there. That’s 8 out of 8.

Caratini good offensive C backup, Kemp decent off bench, Almora defense off bench, Happ maybe okay and useful in limited role.

Beats me why this shouldn’t be a really good offense rest of the season. A head scratcher.

And, until I see something other than the non-ideas I’ve read here—so far—probably true for most others too, I’m guessing.

Sometimes there just isn’t a good and identifiable reason why stuff happens in baseball.  But, think this is and should be a very good offense. If doesn’t pan out, just one of those odd and frustrating things that happen in baseball.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 02, 2019, 11:47:07 am
I don't think they're just one hitter away. I think this mix of players fundamentally just does not work like it should as a unit. The total run scoring is there at the end of the season because there is a ton of raw talent and they crush pitchers who can't exploit their flaws. But they've been so inconsistent, and their situational hitting is awful.

But even if they were just one hitter away, I don't know where they get that hitter. The free agent market is terrible this offseason--you're looking at something like Scooter Gennett or bringing back Castellanos in the best case siutation. And they just don't have the players to trade to get someone like Merrifield or Benintendi who would bring a different type of bat to the Cubs lineup.

On top of that, this rotation has the potential to fall off a cliff. And they have 3/4 of a bullpen to replace before next season. So that limits resources for adding a hitter even more.

I'm not necessarily saying they need to completely dismantle--riding it out and trying to win a bad division is still a better option than that at this point. I'm just saying I don't see a way back to being in the conversation as a true top team without a major overhaul.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 12:02:05 pm
The Bullpen isn't that hard to fix

Kimbrel, Wick, Phelps, Ryan are brought back. 
Bring back 1 of Strop/Kinztler/Cishek
Sing 1 high leverage guy like Smith or what ever.
Hultzen, Wieck for the LH reliever
Fill in the rest with an Iowa shuttle that includes Alzolay, Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Brooks.

Improving the rotation is harder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on August 02, 2019, 12:24:58 pm
Hulzten's pitched less than 30 innings over the last 6 years. Total. Not sure why anyone would want to depend on him in the majors anytime soon.

And that pen looks like crap. The Cubs need Strop, Cishek, and Kinztler all pitching at a high level, not one of them and hope Phelps and career minorleager Wick are the answers.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 12:48:11 pm
That was for next year, not this year.

Kimbrel, Will Smith, Strop/Cishek/Kintzler, Wick, Ryan, Hultzen/Wieck, Phelps, Underwood/Mekkes/Norwood/Mills/Alzolay is just fine as bullpen.  It saves money from this year that can go to position players/rotation improvements.

I really don't care that Wick has been a career minor leaguer. He was a former position player that has only been pitching full time since 2016.   He has 2 above-average pitches and is fine as 7th or 6th inning guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 02, 2019, 01:02:28 pm
Something needs to click for this Cub team to contend in 2019.  It doesn't seem likely, but stranger things have happened.  Gotta try to keep the faith.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 02, 2019, 01:09:20 pm
If you dont support them or believe in them then take that **** somewhere else and find you another team.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 02, 2019, 01:12:15 pm
And if you **** and badmouth a team all year and then they do end up winning you dont get any credit for that.

That's the definition of being a fairweather fan.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 02:27:12 pm
I don't think they're just one hitter away. I think this mix of players fundamentally just does not work like it should as a unit. The total run scoring is there at the end of the season because there is a ton of raw talent and they crush pitchers who can't exploit their flaws. But they've been so inconsistent, and their situational hitting is awful.

Here’s the thing. In basketball or football—where the all the players are in play at the same time for an offensive play—I get the concept that an offense may not work “as a unit.”

But, in baseball, I don’t know what that means.

Here, Cubs are subpar in batting average with runners in scoring position. Slugging and OBP in that situation, they’re fine. Runners on base, Cubs actually lead NL in OPS. Late and Close, Cubs have been awful.

Is clutch late and close a skill?  A lot has been written by analysts about “clutch” in baseball as a skill—basically doesn’t exist at MLB level. Is Cubs core a bunch of chokers “as a unit”? Does anybody believe that? I just don’t think there’s a good explanation.

Who from Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, Bryant, Heyward should be tossed?  Schwarber in LF is basically NL average OPS for LF in 2019. Bote ditto at 2B. Same for Castellanos, probably.

When the weakest three positions in a lineup going forward are league average, that’s a good thing. Combine that with the 5 core group.

Who do you delete here and why?  For me, just not buying into the “as a unit” argument. Yeah, a really good leadoff guy would be great, but what if he doesn’t hit Late and Close?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 02, 2019, 03:04:38 pm
Every year some team (or two) hovers around .500, then takes off at some point in August or September...and plays well into October.

I'm not betting on the Cubs being that team; however, FAR stranger things have happened (e.g. our winning the World Series at all).

Most of the top half teams really struggle along the way to competing for playoff bids. 

Frustrating though it is, keep the faith!  One never knows.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 02, 2019, 03:34:34 pm
Here’s the thing. In basketball or football—where the all the players are in play at the same time for an offensive play—I get the concept that an offense may not work “as a unit.”

But, in baseball, I don’t know what that means.

It's hard to explain exactly what I'm talking about...but my belief is that the players' skills don't compliment each other, so they can be exploited by good pitching. There are too many players with similar flaws, I think.

Too many Cubs go into week-long slumps where they consistently strike out on 3 or 4 pitches (Schwarber, Happ, Baez, Happ, Bote). There are also a lot of guys who are prone to stretches where they just hit ground ball after ground ball (Heyward, Russell, Almora, Descalso, even Contreras and Baez to an extent). Other than Bryant, Rizzo, and maybe Contreras, there's no one on this team they can count on to consistently grind out ABs.

The lineup needs more diversity in the type of hitters they have so it's not so exploitable. IMO. They miss guys like Fowler and (fully healthy, full-time) Zobrist far more than expected, IMO. And it's not because Fowler hit leadoff--it's because both of them consistently had quality ABs that gave pitchers a different type of challenge.

I'm not sure who you switch out on this roster, though. The Cubs just don't have the prospects or young players to get anyone who would really have the kind of impact the Cubs need. And trading one of the four top guys for one of those players is probably a lateral move. This is why I was so interested in the Cubs doing everything they could to get Yelich a year and a half ago--in his Marlins career, he was exactly the type of hitter I think the Cubs are missing.

On a different topic...the easiest thing to fix this offseason may be the rotation because Gerrit Cole is available for just money. Easily top 5 pitcher in baseball, and only 29 years old. But good luck getting the ownership to spend for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 02, 2019, 03:58:56 pm
My impression is that Cole isn't a fan of the Cubs, but I don't think Rickett's is exerting any control over baseball moves other than setting a budget.  Theo gets to spend it as he sees fit.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 04:35:01 pm
If you dont support them or believe in them then take that **** somewhere else and find you another team.


And if you **** and badmouth a team all year and then they do end up winning you dont get any credit for that.

That's the definition of being a fairweather fan.
Fairweather fans only show up when the team is winning.  Some of us are merely pointing out that the 2016 World Series has sort of handcuffed us in some ways.  We still want the Cubs to win.  We still pull for our Cubs.  There are other fans more positive; I respect that.   Then there are some who turn a blind eye.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on August 02, 2019, 04:35:39 pm
It's hard to explain exactly what I'm talking about...but my belief is that the players' skills don't compliment each other, so they can be exploited by good pitching. There are too many players with similar flaws, I think.

Too many Cubs go into week-long slumps where they consistently strike out on 3 or 4 pitches (Schwarber, Happ, Baez, Happ, Bote). There are also a lot of guys who are prone to stretches where they just hit ground ball after ground ball (Heyward, Russell, Almora, Descalso, even Contreras and Baez to an extent). Other than Bryant, Rizzo, and maybe Contreras, there's no one on this team they can count on to consistently grind out ABs.

The lineup needs more diversity in the type of hitters they have so it's not so exploitable. IMO. They miss guys like Fowler and (fully healthy, full-time) Zobrist far more than expected, IMO. And it's not because Fowler hit leadoff--it's because both of them consistently had quality ABs that gave pitchers a different type of challenge.

I'm not sure who you switch out on this roster, though. The Cubs just don't have the prospects or young players to get anyone who would really have the kind of impact the Cubs need. And trading one of the four top guys for one of those players is probably a lateral move. This is why I was so interested in the Cubs doing everything they could to get Yelich a year and a half ago--in his Marlins career, he was exactly the type of hitter I think the Cubs are missing.

On a different topic...the easiest thing to fix this offseason may be the rotation because Gerrit Cole is available for just money. Easily top 5 pitcher in baseball, and only 29 years old. But good luck getting the ownership to spend for him.

Maybe Todd will kick in some of the money he stole from Cook County for a new pitcher.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 04:36:49 pm
Been reading posts about a “remix” but interesting (to me) that posters have no real ideas how to do that other than wholly unrealistic and silly suggestions about getting Matt Chapman or Bregman and the like.

Theo would love to get Merrifield, an ideal fit,  but we know would take inclusion of Marquez, among others, so raise your hand if you wanted that remix for the cost.

Out of 8 positions, Cubs getting really good seasons out of 5 guys/positions: Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Baez. You can quibble about Bryant RISP or Baez OBP or occasional slumps here and there, but all these guys have hit, in the aggregate.

Castellanos will hopefully take the Almora ABs and hit. That’s 6 spots out of 8.

Bote seems will get most of the 2B ABs now That should be okay. And, Schwarber with near .800 OPS in LF gets most of LF ABs. Okay there. That’s 8 out of 8.

Caratini good offensive C backup, Kemp decent off bench, Almora defense off bench, Happ maybe okay and useful in limited role.

Beats me why this shouldn’t be a really good offense rest of the season. A head scratcher.

And, until I see something other than the non-ideas I’ve read here—so far—probably true for most others too, I’m guessing.

Sometimes there just isn’t a good and identifiable reason why stuff happens in baseball.  But, think this is and should be a very good offense. If doesn’t pan out, just one of those odd and frustrating things that happen in baseball.


So Reb, what you are saying if Bryant's contract and these other contracts were identical, those other teams wouldn't trade?  Interesting.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 05:06:16 pm
So Reb, what you are saying if Bryant's contract and these other contracts were identical, those other teams wouldn't trade?  Interesting.

It’s a pointless exercise. The control period/contracts aren’t identical.

Further, Bregman and Chapman are franchise-type players for their clubs. It’s like those magazines from the 1950s with covers declaring Mays For Mantle Trade? A pointless exercise. In a few seasons, perhaps, A’s will have to consider moving Chapman because that’s what they sometimes have to do as a very small market, depending on the player’s interest in signing team friendly deal early.

May recall that Buster had a story last off-season about Cubs willing to listen about Bryant (widely misinterpreted as story that Cubs shopping Bryant). But, that was a narrow opening about a Boras client seemingly intent on testing free agency—-a Theo due diligence thing.

Here, we were talking about Cubs getting better NOW, a wholly different matter. Not going to get better now by trading Bryant under any realistic scenario.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 05:22:52 pm
Regarding BR’s thoughtful post:

yeah, would be a boost to have a near .400 OBP guy at leadoff/CF (Fowler in 2016) AND a Zobrist grinder-type guy (2016, 2018). 

This is why Cubs apparently keen on Merrifield. Maybe will try again in off-season. Cubs have the guys to get him if willing to pay the big price. The question is whether prudent to pay that price.

But, absent that kind of player, doesn’t necessarily follow that the guys on hand are flawed as a unit. Could be better, but everybody could be better.

Cubs now have two new starters (Bote at 2B as near-regular, it seems, and Castellanos ditto in RF). Let’s see how that works out.

As an aside, interesting that Maddon switched out both Castellanos (and Schwarber, as he’s done all year) today and got Almora and Happ in late. Think we’ll see that quite a bit with a lead.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 05:24:02 pm
I'm afraid anything they do this offseason is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

They need to fix the broken offense, solidify an aging rotation, and add a lot of relievers (other than Kimbrel and Ryan, is there anyone who has at least a 25% chance of being in the pen on opening day next year? Maybe Strop on a cheap prove-it deal?).

Wick is not a fluke.  He throws hard, has two good breaking pitches and a nasty attitude.  Historically walks haven't been a huge issue for him before this year either.  He could blow up but I'd sure take the over on that 25% number.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 05:28:55 pm
Wick is a short-armer who hides the ball exceptionally well and has the temerity to attack hitters. A lot to like.

“Faster” than his velocity because of the deception. Hoping he’s a keeper. Obvious that Maddon really likes him. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 05:41:28 pm
Wick is a short-armer who hides the ball exceptionally well and has the temerity to attack hitters. A lot to like.

“Faster” than his velocity because of the deception. Hoping he’s a keeper. Obvious that Maddon really likes him. We’ll see if he can keep it up.


Is it?  Has there been a quote somewhere that I missed?  I'd like to think that's the case but it seems like he's had to be dragged kicking and screaming into using him when it counts, even when Wick wasn't undeservedly on the Iowa shuttle.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 02, 2019, 05:43:32 pm
We’ll learn how much the Cubs like him tomorrow when Hamels comes back and a reliever has to go. I’m thinking a Brach DFA might be coming.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 06:59:16 pm
Maddon has used Wick in 7/8th innings in 4 of Wick’s last 5 appearances, in close games. That tells me that Wick is in Maddon’s high-trust group.

Wick started to pitch really well at Iowa about 3 weeks before his latest recall—about the right time for this recall.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 07:26:46 pm
I wouldn’t suggest Wick is anything remotely like a sure thing. But given the current options, he has to be one of the core guys for the moment. If he’s sent down (I don’t think he will be) it’ll be a travesty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 02, 2019, 07:32:51 pm
Heh heh, back in January, would any of us have thought that our three best relievers would be Kinzler, Ryan, and Rowan Wick? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on August 02, 2019, 07:44:43 pm
Dan Rowan, Dick Martin, and Arte Johnson.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 02, 2019, 08:22:36 pm
Heh heh, back in January, would any of us have thought that our three best relievers would be Kinzler, Ryan, and Rowan Wick? 

Considering the FO punted on fixing the bullpen in the offseason it wouldn't have been as big a longshot as it should have been.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 08:39:11 pm
There are only two NL bullpens with an ERA below 4.00 (Giants, Cards) this season.

Cubs are 4.21 (before today), which is #5.  So, top 1/3 in the league.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 02, 2019, 08:40:01 pm
It's hard to explain exactly what I'm talking about...but my belief is that the players' skills don't compliment each other, so they can be exploited by good pitching. There are too many players with similar flaws, I think.

...

They miss guys like Fowler and (fully healthy, full-time) Zobrist far more than expected, IMO. And it's not because Fowler hit leadoff--it's because both of them consistently had quality ABs that gave pitchers a different type of challenge.

Sharma with an article about how the Cubs lineup can be exploited because their lineup has too many players with the same flaws. Even drops Fowler's name--talks about how they miss him not because of his leadoff ability but because of his offensive profile.

https://theathletic.com/1113945/2019/08/02/how-pitchers-exploit-the-cubs-offense-and-why-their-deadline-additions-and-ben-zobrist-could-be-the-elixir/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 02, 2019, 08:49:07 pm
We’ll learn how much the Cubs like him tomorrow when Hamels comes back and a reliever has to go. I’m thinking a Brach DFA might be coming.

Most likely, but think that Cubs probably would like to figure out a way to keep Brach. 

His FIP (4.11) is two full runs below his ERA. He also has a modest ($1.35) player option for 2020 when Cubs decline the club option ($5). Think that the $1.35 might be guaranteed money. His homers allowed aren't bad and Ks are good.  Been hurt by all the walks and a .375 BABIP (!!!).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 02, 2019, 09:47:43 pm
Maybe Todd will kick in some of the money he stole from Cook County for a new pitcher.

How much did he steal, and how did he steal it?  Or is this just another of your political rants?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 03, 2019, 12:43:24 am
Todd Ricketts deserves to be criticized. Looks like he's going to be have to pay back taxes (and hopefully fines?).  But this stuff does not belong in this thread.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 03, 2019, 08:05:25 am
Nice objective analysis of the Cubs by a Sox fan:  https://dawindycity.com/2019/08/03/chicago-cubs-opinion-white-sox-fan/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 03, 2019, 10:10:54 am
Paul Sullivan  @PWSullivan  8m8 minutes ago
Brad Brach has been DFA’d. Hamels added.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on August 03, 2019, 10:39:07 am
How much did he steal, and how did he steal it?  Or is this just another of your political rants?

Property tax fraud.  I don’t know how much he stole (I doubt anyone does yet and won’t until his house is reassessed) but it’s certainly not enough to pay for a pitcher. But, one thing that is clear about these jerk offs is that every penny counts so hopefully Todd makes a contribution. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 03, 2019, 12:52:59 pm
Maddon was asked if Rowan Wick's recent performance played a role in the team's decision on Brach:

"Of course. What Rowan's doing right now causes us to rethink a lot of this stuff."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 03, 2019, 12:56:45 pm
Property tax fraud.  I don’t know how much he stole (I doubt anyone does yet and won’t until his house is reassessed) but it’s certainly not enough to pay for a pitcher. But, one thing that is clear about these jerk offs is that every penny counts so hopefully Todd makes a contribution. 

I assume that he has not been convicted yet, or I would have heard of it.  Has he been indicted?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on August 03, 2019, 03:34:49 pm
Sharma with an article about how the Cubs lineup can be exploited because their lineup has too many players with the same flaws. Even drops Fowler's name--talks about how they miss him not because of his leadoff ability but because of his offensive profile.

https://theathletic.com/1113945/2019/08/02/how-pitchers-exploit-the-cubs-offense-and-why-their-deadline-additions-and-ben-zobrist-could-be-the-elixir/

Thanks for the article, br. So far, I’m willing to chalk most of the perceived underperformance of this club up to the vagaries of chance, but I respect your insistence that something is actually *wrong* with the offense. I just need some sort of logical framework to prop that up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 03, 2019, 04:38:17 pm
Castellanos may prove to be a huge addition.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 03, 2019, 06:33:40 pm
From MLB.com:

Quote
Teams often need extra catching depth -- they could target a backstop with MLB experience like Carlos Perez (in the Orioles organization), Jett Bandy (Rangers) or Rene Rivera (Mets). Pitching depth is always a concern, too -- a starter like Hector Noesi (Marlins) or a lefty reliever like Fernando Abad (Giants) would be options. Maybe someone needs an emergency shortstop -- Alcides Escobar (White Sox) and Pete Kozma (Tigers) are out there. And speed/defense specialists are valuable in October -- someone like Shane Robinson (Phillies), maybe.

These are all players with Major League experience who are on Minor League deals, not on 40-man rosters, and have not appeared in the Majors this year. We’re not saying these guys are going to be traded or even rumored to be traded, just that these are the types of players who might be dealt in August.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: bitterman on August 03, 2019, 07:25:50 pm
I really need to stop looking at Gleybor Torress’ stats.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 03, 2019, 07:34:43 pm
It's great that we can identify and develop talent.  At least hitting talent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 03, 2019, 08:45:09 pm
Cubs now have the HIGHEST PAYROLL IN THE MAJORS for luxury tax purposes, according to Roster Resource.

Indeed,  Cubs are within $350,000, says Roster Resource, of reaching the $246 M highest penalty strata. At that level, Cubs highest draft pick next year would get moved back 10 spots, with accompanying reduction in draft pool for that pick.

So, the difference between making a waiver claim on Lucroy compared to signing him as a FA ((if he clears waivers) may well be the difference between the above penalty and avoiding that penalty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 03, 2019, 08:55:18 pm
This season is a long way from over, but who among us thought Jayson Heyward would have a higher WAR than Bryce Harper at this point in 2019?

It is SO darned hard to predict the performance of MLB players (or teams)!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 03, 2019, 08:57:00 pm
I meant Jason (Heyward), not Jayson.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 03, 2019, 09:19:39 pm
This season is a long way from over, but who among us thought Jayson Heyward would have a higher WAR than Bryce Harper at this point in 2019?

It is SO darned hard to predict the performance of MLB players (or teams)!

Depends which WAR methodology you look at. Harper has more fWAR than Heyward. Let’s say these guys are similar value in 2019, which is a surprise.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 03, 2019, 09:31:16 pm
Forget Lucroy. Just toss the Mets a C prospect for Rivera.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 04, 2019, 09:35:18 am
Quote
In what looms as the biggest mistake of their rebuilding process, the team rebuffed an offer for Fulmer involving two young players who are now among the best in baseball: According to multiple persons with knowledge of the talks, the Cubs offered shortstop Javier Baez [sic] as part of a three-player package and the Astros offered third baseman Alex Bregman for Fulmer and lefty reliever Justin Wilson.

Fulmer has landed on the 60-day injured list after having Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2019 season.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/08/04/report-cubs-once-offered-javy-baez-to-tigers-for-michael-fulmer/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on August 04, 2019, 11:11:25 am
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/cubs-place-willson-contreras-on-il.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 04, 2019, 12:43:06 pm
Oscar De La Cruz has cleared waivers, according to MLBTR, and stays in Cubs organization.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 04, 2019, 01:49:31 pm
I find it hard to accept a claim that Caratini is a superior to Contreras as a defensive catcher.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 05, 2019, 09:08:32 am
Sharma has a very good article on Darvish, with an analysis of Darvish's progress by, of all people, Jason Heyward.

https://theathletic.com/1116693/2019/08/04/right-now-nobodys-pitching-better-than-he-is-yu-darvish-helps-the-cubs-sweep-away-the-brewers/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 05, 2019, 11:07:19 am
I missed this article on Morrow:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27311282/cubs-morrow-optimistic-2019-return

Wouldn't it be great to have a healthy Morrow for the stretch run and postseason?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 05, 2019, 12:11:01 pm
Jesse Rogers says Duane Underwood has been recalled.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 05, 2019, 01:33:40 pm
To replace whom? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 05, 2019, 01:38:06 pm
Jesse Rogers says Duane Underwood has been recalled.
Jesse Rogers arrives earlier at the ballpark and stays later than the other members of the media who cover the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 05, 2019, 01:47:03 pm
Now Rogers says Contreras is out 4 weeks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 05, 2019, 01:54:37 pm
Now Rogers says Contreras is out 4 weeks.
We need to go shopping or give Schwarber some reps behind the plate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2019, 02:09:40 pm
Schwarber had a catching mit before yesterdays game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2019, 03:24:21 pm
Cubs have started 6 different guys at 2B this season.

Cubs 2B OPS is .671. NL average at 2B is .732. Cubs tied for 10th in NL.

Thought that Bote would get most 2B starts now but Kemp is starting again tonight so remains to be seen between these two.

This is where a Zobrist return in Sept potentially could be a boost, if Zobrist can still play there (started a few games at 2B earlier this season). I know Cubs have said Zobrist will get days off but if he got into a groove at some point, could see him as everyday starter in post-season at 2B. Guess he could play some RF when Castellanos sits, but 2B is the need as things stand now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on August 05, 2019, 03:30:39 pm
Schwarber had a catching mit before yesterdays game.

Before trading Maldonado, I'm sure the Cubs had a backup option in mind in case of an injury to Contreras and/or Caratini.  Be it Schwarber, Davis, Higgins, Pereda, or Amaya. Higgins played very little catcher early this year but had played 37% of his games behind the plate as of late last week throwing out nearly 40% of base stealers. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 05, 2019, 03:48:46 pm
Jesse Rogers says Duane Underwood has been recalled.
CubsInsider says it might be Craig Kimbrel

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/08/05/duane-underwood-recalled-corresponding-move-unclear/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 05, 2019, 03:53:05 pm
CubsInsider says it might be Craig Kimbrel

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/08/05/duane-underwood-recalled-corresponding-move-unclear/
670 The Score says it is Kimbrel

https://670thescore.radio.com/cubs-place-craig-kimbrel-injured-list-right-knee-inflammation
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 05, 2019, 03:57:41 pm
I wonder if Maddon pitching him 4 games in 5 days, and 6 times in 9 days, wasn't so smart?  July 16-17-19-20-23-24. 

I don't imagine Maddon would ever second-guess any of his usage decisions, but in retrospect that probably wasn't the best. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2019, 04:50:38 pm
He only pitched back to back days twice.  It might explain why his velocity dropped though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 05, 2019, 05:19:49 pm
Kimbrel said he could pitch through it but wanted to be smart about it and let it get better. Should be back at the minimum if it responds to rest. He also said he can keep throwing while injured.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 05, 2019, 05:33:21 pm
Kimbrel's velocity didn't drop - it's been down since he came back.  If the knee is the reason it was already an issue when he signed.

As for catcher, I still say just go get Rene Rivera.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 05, 2019, 05:47:39 pm
Bruce Levine

 
@MLBBruceLevine
Following Following @MLBBruceLevine
More
Jed Hoyer said that Ben Zobrist went back to Nashville today.His next step will be discussed with the front office
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 05, 2019, 05:59:05 pm
He only pitched back to back days twice.  It might explain why his velocity dropped though.

Not sure if I'm mis-reading?  He didn't go back-to-back-to-back, 3 days straight. 

Over a 9-day stretch, he went back-to-back THREE times.  Reds-Reds Tues-Wed; got Thursday off; Padres-Padres Friday-Saturday; then Giants-Giants Tues-Wednes.  Four save-situations in five days, that's a lot, IMO.  And then another back-to-back after only two days rest. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 05, 2019, 06:06:24 pm
Quote
Robert Murray

Verified account
 
@ByRobertMurray
 6m6 minutes ago
More
#Cubs in agreement with free-agent pitcher Alex Wilson, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.


Depth signing at best.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 05, 2019, 06:32:20 pm
Lucroy clears waivers.  Cubs in play for sure there.

It's very weird that a guy who was a great framer for his whole career suddenly becomes a bad (though non Contreras-bad) framer, but that seems to have happened to Lucroy in the last couple of years.  Statistical fluke?  Injuries?  At minimum, and with only Crash Davis and Schwarber as options, you'd have to at least consider Lucroy.  He's still a good game manager at the very least.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2019, 07:54:24 pm
Lucroy clears waivers.  Cubs in play for sure there.


Just read that Angels requested release waivers on Lucroy. Where did you read that he cleared?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on August 05, 2019, 08:52:33 pm
Cubs have started 6 different guys at 2B this season.

Cubs 2B OPS is .671. NL average at 2B is .732. Cubs tied for 10th in NL.

Thought that Bote would get most 2B starts now but Kemp is starting again tonight so remains to be seen between these two.

This is where a Zobrist return in Sept potentially could be a boost, if Zobrist can still play there (started a few games at 2B earlier this season). I know Cubs have said Zobrist will get days off but if he got into a groove at some point, could see him as everyday starter in post-season at 2B. Guess he could play some RF when Castellanos sits, but 2B is the need as things stand now.

I have not followed this season closely -- what happened to Russell?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 05, 2019, 08:53:49 pm
Just read that Angels requested release waivers on Lucroy. Where did you read that he cleared?

OCR beat guy tweeted it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2019, 09:34:09 pm
Not sure if I'm mis-reading?  He didn't go back-to-back-to-back, 3 days straight. 

Over a 9-day stretch, he went back-to-back THREE times.  Reds-Reds Tues-Wed; got Thursday off; Padres-Padres Friday-Saturday; then Giants-Giants Tues-Wednes.  Four save-situations in five days, that's a lot, IMO.  And then another back-to-back after only two days rest. 

I missed the middle being back to back. You can tweak a knee running in between days too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 05, 2019, 09:38:26 pm
I have not followed this season closely -- what happened to Russell?

Played poorly, acted poorly motivated, sent to Iowa where he has been doing poorly until the last couple of games.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 05, 2019, 09:39:04 pm
OCR beat guy tweeted it.

Okay, thanks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 05, 2019, 09:45:04 pm
Kimbrel's velocity didn't drop - it's been down since he came back.  If the knee is the reason it was already an issue when he signed.

As for catcher, I still say just go get Rene Rivera.

He had 6 games as a Cub where he averaged below 96 on his fastball and three of them came in the last 5 games. July 23 and 27 where the only games he didn’t break 96 for a max velocity. It was down more than normal recently.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 05, 2019, 11:26:43 pm
I missed the middle being back to back. You can tweak a knee running in between days too.

yes, this is true.  If it was a sore arm, 4 games in 5 days might be an easier cause-effect linkage to speculate.  Heh heh, obviously pitchers aren't on pitch-counts and usage-limits primarily to protect their knees or legs!  :)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 06, 2019, 12:33:07 am
Apparently Maddon went to Kintzler before he had a chance to fully warm up, which may have led to his injury.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 06, 2019, 12:36:53 am
So Maddon finally broke Cishek, then broke Kintzler by bringing him in too early to relieve Cishek.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 06, 2019, 12:45:55 am
I don't think you're being fair to Joe.  Cishek has been broken for weeks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 06, 2019, 12:54:51 am
Cubs "relievers" had 2 swing and misses tonight, total.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 06, 2019, 02:25:23 am
We might be singing “Back in Brach” pretty soon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 06, 2019, 02:29:24 am
Apparently Maddon went to Kintzler before he had a chance to fully warm up, which may have led to his injury.

Is there a source that Kintzler was not fully warmed up? Who reported that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on August 06, 2019, 07:41:52 am
I was at the game and Kintzler was on the video board warming up for awhile. He was warming up when the first HR was hit (and the 2nd and for the BB). That would seem like a sufficient amount of time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 06, 2019, 07:44:30 am
I was at the game and Kintzler was on the video board warming up for awhile. He was warming up when the first HR was hit (and the 2nd and for the BB). That would seem like a sufficient amount of time.
I was watching at home and I agree.  Kintzler was warming up for some time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on August 06, 2019, 08:56:19 am
Played poorly, acted poorly motivated, sent to Iowa where he has been doing poorly until the last couple of games.

Wow.  Unfortunate for him and for the Cubs.  The guy really needs to realize that his career could quite literally end with that kind of on field performance this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 06, 2019, 12:38:16 pm
@sahadevsharma
Ben Zobrist will continue working his way back to the big leagues on Thursday with High-A Myrtle Beach
1:23 PM ·
Aug 6, 2019·Twitter
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 06, 2019, 04:32:47 pm
Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
Brandon Kintzler (pectoral)  is going to throw and see how he feels.
4:36 PM · Aug 6, 2019
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 06, 2019, 04:52:07 pm
Kintzler to the IL, Strop activated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 06, 2019, 05:07:38 pm
Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
Maddon says Cubs taking the conservative route. Just don’t want to push it with Kintzler. Not a serious injury

Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
Maddon said Kintzler came out of his delivery to Chapman, trying to do a little too much. Fig the strain happened there. Again, not serious but taking the 10 days
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 06, 2019, 05:56:18 pm
All these injuries are somewhat minor other than Contreras, but the cumulative effect is devastating. Hopefully the Cubs can survive the next 9 games or so.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 06, 2019, 11:53:52 pm
All these injuries are somewhat minor other than Contreras, but the cumulative effect is devastating. Hopefully the Cubs can survive the next 9 games or so.

Injuries routinely happen in baseball. When following only one club closely, it might seem “devastating” but, around baseball, happens a lot—a few guys go down for a time or two during the season. Routine. Just a bit more for Cubs right now than during other parts of this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 07, 2019, 07:25:23 am
Today is a critical game. The Cubs are going on the road, to Cincinnati against their surprisingly good rotation. I will be surprised if they split that series. The Reds have beaten the Cubs in every series so far and now with Bauer and with Wood back they might have one of the top rotations in the NL.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2019, 07:29:06 am
Injuries also allow for guys like Wick and maybe Underwood to emerge as well. Underwood’s stuff really seems to play up in the pen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 07, 2019, 08:16:50 am
I'm kind of shocked the Cubs haven't signed Lucroy yet.  A month for Contreras is extremely optimistic, and we almost lost Caratini today.  We're one injury away from Taylor Davis and Schwarber being our only options.  Hard to imagine we'll find a better option than Lucroy - and as he supposedly wants a contender, hard to imagine he'd find a better situation than us.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 07, 2019, 09:10:05 am
Lester has been throwing clunkers the last few times out for sure but he went through a similar stretch last year about this time and turned it around after many proclaimed him finished. It sucks going through this now but I think Big John will figure it out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 07, 2019, 09:27:45 am
I'm kind of shocked the Cubs haven't signed Lucroy yet.  A month for Contreras is extremely optimistic, and we almost lost Caratini today.  We're one injury away from Taylor Davis and Schwarber being our only options.  Hard to imagine we'll find a better option than Lucroy - and as he supposedly wants a contender, hard to imagine he'd find a better situation than us.

The concussions might be a worry with him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 07, 2019, 12:41:06 pm
Injuries also allow for guys like Wick and maybe Underwood to emerge as well. Underwood’s stuff really seems to play up in the pen.

Low pressure situation but Underwood lights out yesterday. 4-seamer at 95-97 and change up/sinker at 87-89. Had 9 swinging strikes in 29 pitches, most on the latter.

As a starter in minors, we wondered when Ks were going to come. Ks for all 6 batters faced yesterday. Mostly a 2-pitch guy as a reliever. Threw 2 curves that seemed a show-me pitch more than anything. Maybe Cubs a bit late converting him to relief but they showed patience with him. Maybe a factor for 2020 bullpen, definitely if throws like did yesterday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 07, 2019, 02:25:26 pm
@JonHeyman
Sources: Lucroy goes to Cubs
3:21 PM · Aug 7, 2019
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on August 07, 2019, 02:26:25 pm
Len just announced Heyman’s tweet on air as well...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 07, 2019, 03:13:05 pm
Thats why I come here.

We suspected this days ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 07, 2019, 05:05:17 pm
Yup, absolutely makes sense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on August 08, 2019, 01:40:22 am
Looking up Lucroy's stats, I had completely forgotten that he had a stint in Texas.  That means he would have caught Hamels and Darvish while there; I wonder if they're looking forward to pitching to him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 08, 2019, 01:55:58 am
Heh, was just going to post on that. Apparently Yu (who can be somewhat mercurial) had very good things to say about pitching to Lucroy at the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 08, 2019, 06:06:09 am
Will LuCroy even remember that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 08, 2019, 07:47:47 am
Does adding Lucroy put the Cubs over that highest level of luxury tax and drop their draft picks?  Or no impact, and they'll still keep their 1st and 2nd round picks where they'd normally line up? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 08, 2019, 08:07:41 am
What's this "LuCroy" thing all about?  He doesn't capitalize the "c".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 08, 2019, 08:41:58 am
Craig is a ProFessor.  He can capitaLize anyThing he wants.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 08, 2019, 08:56:20 am
Lucroy's OPS+ over last three seasons has been 81, 72, and 82.  And defensively, he's kind of a Contreras-esque framer at this point, with a Caratini arm?  Or can he still throw pretty well?  And probably a better pitch-caller and game-manager? 

Perhaps on the anti-awful spectrum, we could do worse than 81-OPS+ guy offensively. 

Hope being back in the central and on a first-place team is really fun and energizing for him, and he gets kinda hot offensively.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2019, 10:59:54 am
Does adding Lucroy put the Cubs over that highest level of luxury tax and drop their draft picks?  Or no impact, and they'll still keep their 1st and 2nd round picks where they'd normally line up?

Top threshold is $246 M.

Roster Resource estimates Cubs now at $244.7. Cots estimates Cubs $10 M lower than RR does.

So, probably not. In any case, Lucroy only adds about $185,000 (about 1/3 of $555,000 minimum salary).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 08, 2019, 11:32:14 am
Thanks, reb.  Good.  I kind of assumed the Cubs wouldn't let themselves go over that threshold. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 08, 2019, 02:54:43 pm
Carrie Muskat  @CarrieMuskat  8m8 minutes ago
Note to #Cubs number geeks: Lucroy will wear No. 25. 1B coach Will Venable switching to No. 99
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 08, 2019, 03:00:03 pm
Top threshold is $246 M.

Roster Resource estimates Cubs now at $244.7. Cots estimates Cubs $10 M lower than RR does.

So, probably not. In any case, Lucroy only adds about $185,000 (about 1/3 of $555,000 minimum salary).

Are all players on the 40 man paid the major league minimum? And does their salary count for luxury tax purposes? Or do AAA/AA players on the 40 man only make minor league pay? Just wondering if the Cubs added $185K to the payroll, or if they're just giving the $185K that would've gone to Taylor Davis to Lucroy instead.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 08, 2019, 03:05:50 pm
https://www.boston.com/sports/mlb/2018/03/23/minor-league-baseball-minimum-wage-protection

"Only major league players are unionized, and their collective bargaining agreement sets minimum salaries for players on 40-man rosters: $545,000 for those in the major leagues this season, $88,900 for 40-man roster players in the minors signing at least their second big league contract and $44,500 for 40-man roster players in the minors signing their first big league contract."

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 08, 2019, 03:20:15 pm
The Mets have signed Brad Brach, and they're paying him the prorated major league minimum. So that nullifies the salary added through signing Lucroy, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2019, 03:28:38 pm
Yes, Brach washes out Lucroy pro-rated salary.

Minimum for 2019 is $555,000, up from $545,000 in 2018.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2019, 03:43:56 pm
Lucroy says he’s healthy.

https://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41072493-4
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 08, 2019, 04:28:54 pm
No drain bamage?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 08, 2019, 05:33:39 pm
https://www.boston.com/sports/mlb/2018/03/23/minor-league-baseball-minimum-wage-protection

"Only major league players are unionized, and their collective bargaining agreement sets minimum salaries for players on 40-man rosters: $545,000 for those in the major leagues this season, $88,900 for 40-man roster players in the minors signing at least their second big league contract and $44,500 for 40-man roster players in the minors signing their first big league contract."



ArizonaPhil can give an exact answer, but I remember his saying that some contracts, especially those signed as free agents, but have options left, can sign a contract that pays them the MLB minimum even when in the minors.  I have no idea if that money counts against the luxury tax while they are in the minors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 08, 2019, 06:37:51 pm
When I was around the Smokies clubhouse some of those boys lived a lot better than others.

Some didnt have cars and lived 4 to an apartment and some lived by themselves in condos in the mountains are drove escalade trucks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 08, 2019, 07:08:08 pm
Reb probably knows the CBA better than most of us, but if a guy has x number of MLB experience, I think they have to be paid the minimum.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 08, 2019, 09:33:19 pm
Most of these guys sign split majors/minors contracts.

All a matter of negotiation. Minimum just means minimum guarantee—can negotiate more if have some bargaining power or club more invested in the player.

Pretty sure that Addison Russell gets his full major salary when optioned. Had a guaranteed arb deal once season started. Had he been released during the season, gets the full contract.

Wouldn’t surprise me if a pre-arb guy like Happ, with more tenure and cache, got a better deal than, say, Zagunis or Maples.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 09, 2019, 09:42:41 am
MLB.com has an assessment of the relative difficulty of team schedules for the rest of the season, based on their opponents' won-lost records so far.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-teams-with-toughest-remaining-schedules

Based on this, the Cubs have the 9th most difficult schedule (against .497 record of opponents). The Brewers are #5 (.505 record of opponents), and Cardinals #6 (.504 record of opponents). 

Post season odds: Cubs 90.8%, Cards 28.7%, Brewers 28.5%.  Not too shabby for a dysfunctional offense.   ;)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on August 09, 2019, 01:49:08 pm
But how do we look in the wild card standings?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 09, 2019, 02:33:49 pm
Up 4 in Wildcard!  :):)  Extra contingency padding!  Brewers are the last team in, 5th place, and Cardinals, Mets, and Phillies are all 1/2 game behind them tie for 6th. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 09, 2019, 02:44:30 pm
Ron, you're missing something.  😢
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 09, 2019, 03:19:15 pm
Kyle Ryan goes to the bereavement list, Alec Mills called up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 09, 2019, 03:36:15 pm
Makes more sense for why he pitched 2 1/3 innings yesterday, if they new it was going to happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 09, 2019, 04:23:02 pm
The manager has more information than we do.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 09, 2019, 04:58:25 pm
The manager has more information than we do.
  Since when is that important?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 09, 2019, 05:50:22 pm
Yeah, that explains it very well. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 09, 2019, 05:54:10 pm
Heh heh, it's part of the greatness of a season!

Who would have thought on opening day that we'd be concerned in August about whether Ryan was unavailable for a day or two; and that we'd have a several-post debate about whether the manager was at fault?  The unpredictability of the season is so great.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 09, 2019, 06:06:16 pm
Actually, in March, CurtOne posted that our main concern would be whether or not Ryan would have to go on bereavement leave this summer.  We just don't remember it because we all have him on ignore.  Besides, he thought it would be in September.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 09, 2019, 06:26:48 pm
Davep is a poo
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 09, 2019, 08:23:17 pm
That's Pooh, idiot.  And I'm not.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 09, 2019, 08:46:27 pm
Ron, you're missing something.  😢

I'm missing a lot!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 10, 2019, 03:33:00 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  18m18 minutes ago
Steve Cishek to IL w left hip inflammation. Maples recalled.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 10, 2019, 04:05:23 pm
Probably not the worst thing for Cishek to get some rest for 2 weeks. He hasn’t been effective for a while anyway.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 11, 2019, 12:46:04 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Cubs manager Joe Maddon said his optimism about being re-signed remains "very high." Doesn't expect the team's decision to come down to wins and losses. Maddon: "It's about interactions.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 11, 2019, 02:23:04 pm
Cubs have taken the lead 5-3 in the 7th. A split would be awesome.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 12, 2019, 11:32:15 am
Interesting story on the Mesa Pitching Lab and how it helped Rowan Wick

Quote
Hottovy explained that the elimination of the index finger on the seams helps create more consistency with the pressure point on the ball. That can help generate more spin, movement and velocity. That has all come to fruition for Wick this season.

https://bastian.mlblogs.com/the-guy-just-keeps-going-out-and-posting-up-numbers-a2e94926e472
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 12, 2019, 12:37:55 pm
Really interesting piece about Wick (and the Bauer video too).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 12, 2019, 03:07:52 pm
Jesse Rogers - New start time for Cubs weeknight home games next season before Memorial Day and after Labor Day:  6:40 pm CT
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 12, 2019, 03:12:12 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EByMJJOX4AAJUP5.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 12, 2019, 05:34:05 pm
Do they really have a 2 game weekend series in June against the Cardinals after 2 days off? Or is that a typo?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 12, 2019, 05:43:49 pm
Do they really have a 2 game weekend series in June against the Cardinals after 2 days off? Or is that a typo?
That's the trip to London.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 13, 2019, 09:14:10 am
Sahadev Sharma is a treasure and we Cub fans are really fortunate to have him covering the Cubs.  Here is another really interesting, informative article from him. This one on why Hendricks and the Cubs are adjusting their sinker strategy to the way swings work now.

https://theathletic.com/1134658/2019/08/13/why-does-kyle-hendricks-want-to-throw-a-sinker-up-and-in-to-hitters-he-can-explain/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 13, 2019, 09:43:14 am
Quote
Bernstein & McKnight

Verified account
 
@Bernstein_McK
 7m7 minutes ago
More
Our @dan_bernstein's source tells him the #Cubs are unhappy with Joe Maddon's public discussion of his contract status. "They're unhappy that Joe himself did not honor the handshake agreement..." to not discuss his contract status. Listen for more details: http://670theScore.radio.com
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 13, 2019, 09:54:47 am
Thanks, Ron, that was really good.  Really interesting. 

One of the comments I thought was interesting, that down-and-in is bad.  I wouldn't have instinctively realized that.  Seems to me a lot of guys, like Schwarber for example, are looking for down-and-away, and get full extension when the pitch goes there.  I might have guessed that for a lot of guys, that a down-and-in pitch would be hard for them to get full extension and drive.  Particularly for guys who are really expecting to go opposite, and are kind of guessing and striding to reach the outside pitch.  Shows how little concept I've got! 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 13, 2019, 12:50:52 pm
Theo and Jed are gonna F Maddon for their own failures and dont want the media backlash so they dont want him talking.

He's as good as gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on August 13, 2019, 01:22:48 pm
With the golf balls they are hitting this season, it’s much easier to reach out and take the down and away pitches out to LF...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 13, 2019, 01:30:47 pm
Cubs pres. of baseball ops Theo Epstein, asked about report that front office was unhappy about Maddon's recent comments about contract situation:

"Totally baseless. We had no problems with Joe's comments. He has to talk to you guys twice a day and does a great job with it."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 13, 2019, 01:51:36 pm
"Totally baseless. We had no problems with Joe's comments. He has to talk to you guys twice a day and does a great job with it.  Besides, we're firing his ass.""
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 13, 2019, 02:02:04 pm
Mark Gonzalez

LHP Kyle Ryan returns from bereavement list, Maples optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Maples 2 innings, 0 hits, 3 K's for Iowa today.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 13, 2019, 02:43:34 pm
@sahadevsharma
Ben Zobrist will join the Iowa Cubs on Thursday in Memphis. He'll be there Thursday to Sunday and then, as has been the case since he started up again, they'll reevaluate on Monday.
3:40 PM · Aug 13, 2019
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 13, 2019, 05:33:00 pm
"Totally baseless. We had no problems with Joe's comments. He has to talk to you guys twice a day and does a great job with it.  Besides, we're firing his ass.""

Joe knows the Cubs would like to sell this as a mutual decision - "a change was best for everyone" kind of thing - and he wants to pre-emptively make it clear that if you see him fall he didn't jump, he was pushed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 13, 2019, 06:40:39 pm


Perhaps I have not been paying enough attention, but who, exactly, are Bernstein & McKnight and is there any particular reason we should give them credence?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 13, 2019, 06:44:02 pm
Perhaps I have not been paying enough attention, but who, exactly, are Bernstein & McKnight and is there any particular reason we should give them credence?
Theo's hairdressers
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 13, 2019, 08:38:19 pm
Bernstein is one of the blowhards on the SCR.  He has been around forever.  I doubt he has any inside view into the Front Office thinking.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 13, 2019, 11:17:48 pm
Quote
HatsToTheLeft

 
@HatsToTheLeft
Follow Follow @HatsToTheLeft
More
Since being acquired on July 31 Nick Castellanos has produced 36% of the total hits by the Cubs... 36%...one man #BigNickEnergy
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 13, 2019, 11:22:32 pm
If that's true, that seems like a dysfunctional offense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 14, 2019, 01:47:38 am
He's even looked OK defensively, though it's only a couple of weeks.  Certainly adequate as a left fielder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 14, 2019, 02:07:07 am
https://twitter.com/tonykemp/status/1161479710636957699
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 14, 2019, 08:30:25 am
https://twitter.com/tonykemp/status/1161479710636957699
Eric Gregg would have been proud of that call.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 14, 2019, 08:37:50 am
Happ's sloppy error and Rizz's inability to hit Vargas hard hurt the most.  Happ's guy scored and changed the dynamic of the game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 14, 2019, 08:54:09 am
Jesse Rogers

Verified account
 
@ESPNChiCubs
Follow Follow @ESPNChiCubs
More
According to @ESPNStatsInfo the strike 3 call on Kemp in the 9th inning had a 0.00 percent chance of being called a strike. (Based on history of that pitch)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 14, 2019, 10:07:08 am
Imagine Lou Piniella's reaction to that call.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 14, 2019, 10:15:03 am
Eddie Gaedel would have gone off the rails.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 14, 2019, 04:10:46 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  34m34 minutes ago
Heyward felt some pain in his knee in the middle of the night. Felt better today as he took swings but fig better to give it a day. Does not expect an IL stint. Wasn’t sure when he hurt it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 14, 2019, 04:13:17 pm
Tony Kemp leads off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 14, 2019, 05:30:30 pm
I cant understand why Kemp isnt faster and doesnt steal more bases than he does.

If he did he'd be tremendously useful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 14, 2019, 06:28:50 pm
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
Cishek said he felt good and really let loose today. He'll throw a bullpen tomorrow. Kimbrel will throw a bullpen tomorrow as well. After that, they'll determine next steps, possibilities include a rehab appearance or just activation. Kintzler should be ready to go Friday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on August 15, 2019, 06:21:33 am
It is clear now.  This team is broken.  They need to blow it up this off-season and start over.  I don't consider any player untouchable for the right price.  Even Bryzzo.

You can throw all the stats in the world to make an argument that this is a good team but something is not right.  They are too Jekyll and Hyde.  You don't know what it is.  You can't put your finger on it.  You just know it's not working.  Time to throw it away and get a new one.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 15, 2019, 08:55:52 am
They are really missing the HRs from Rizzo.  I'm not sure what's going on with him.  But I don't see the logic in blowing up the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 15, 2019, 09:14:33 am
Through the first 3 months of the season the Cubs lost 6 games by a total of 6 runs or more or roughly 2 a month, which I would imagine is somewhat average. Through the first 2 weeks of August the Cubs have been blown out 4 times already. With most of the bullpen on the IL you would think it would be the relief corp's fault. Instead, the main culprit is the rotation.

- Lester had a nice early stratch but seems to finally be showing his age
- Hamels has been putrid his last two starts
- Hendricks has apparently forgotten how to pitch on the road

Darvish and Quintana are the only two who have been reliable the second half. The Cubs would be 7 games out in the east and 15 out in the west. In the playoffs any team has a chance, but it is hard to feel any confidence in this group. Perhaps an influx of Zobrist, Contrerras, Kimbrel, Kintzler and few others Sept 1 will help enough. It does feel like something is just off with this team. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 15, 2019, 10:26:25 am
Again, blowing it up is easier said than done.  Who do you trade?  Schwarber has modest value, Happ/Almora/Russell next to none.  You might get something interesting for Quintana, but unless you’re changing for change’s sake and addition by subtraction, you’ll have to deal somebody like Bryant or Contreras.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on August 15, 2019, 12:21:39 pm
What would Lindor cost us in trade?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on August 15, 2019, 12:29:01 pm
Didn't they dump Bauer so that they could keep Lindor until he is a free agent?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on August 15, 2019, 12:33:12 pm
What good does it do to keep playing with broken parts?  This team peaked already.  Get what you can.  Cut your losses.  Sell now before the stock hits rock bottom.

And yes.  I say trade anyone and everyone.  Including KB.  It's over for this group of players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 15, 2019, 03:13:25 pm
Alec - you did such a great job we're going to reward you with a ticket to Des Moines.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  9m9 minutes ago
James Norwood called up for Alec Mills who pitched a quality outing in relief last night
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on August 15, 2019, 05:23:56 pm
Jesse Rogers

Verified account
 
@ESPNChiCubs
Follow Follow @ESPNChiCubs
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According to @ESPNStatsInfo the strike 3 call on Kemp in the 9th inning had a 0.00 percent chance of being called a strike. (Based on history of that pitch)


Anyone have a link to video of the strike three call on Kemp?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 15, 2019, 05:28:20 pm
Deeg posted this earlier:

https://twitter.com/UmpireAuditor/status/1161462887673503744
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on August 15, 2019, 06:22:16 pm
Deeg posted this earlier:

https://twitter.com/UmpireAuditor/status/1161462887673503744

Thanks
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 16, 2019, 12:36:38 pm
No doubt this is an imperfect Cubs team.  The real test of their mettle will be the next 6 weeks.  It appears that they will be as healthy as they have been all season once Contreras returns.  Whatever negatives one might see in this squad, they have generally risen to the occasion over the past 4 years when healthy and when the season has been on the line.  I expect them to rise to the occasion again.  If they don't, then there will need to be major changes. This is not the time for such talk, however.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on August 16, 2019, 12:43:44 pm
they have generally risen to the occasion over the past 4 years when healthy and when the season has been on the line.

Didn't they blow a 6-1/2 game last September, lose the division title game at home, and lose the WC game at home?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on August 16, 2019, 12:47:14 pm
This has been a three year decline since they peaked in 2016.  There is no denying it.  There is no reason to believe it will turn around.

Blow
It
Up

Reset and start over.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jes Beard on August 16, 2019, 12:47:27 pm
Semantics....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 16, 2019, 01:10:15 pm
This has been a three year decline since they peaked in 2016.  There is no denying it.  There is no reason to believe it will turn around.

Blow
It
Up

Reset and start over.

Sorry, can’t help but laugh over above post.

Cubs averaged 93.5 wins last two seasons and are tied for first place right now. And, all that after winning a World Series.

THRILLED that expectations have so changed for Cubs fans that this is considered a basis for self-immolation.

In today’s world, History doesn’t exist in some quarters and perhaps, in a few respects, that can be a good thing for some things.

Loveable Losers are dead and gone. Cubs are Winners. Anything but the best is a disappointment. All for the good. A blessing that we feel that way now.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on August 16, 2019, 01:29:13 pm
So your argument is they are as good or better since 2016?

(https://static.theceomagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/19202109/CEO-Magazine-Ostrich-strategy.jpg)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 16, 2019, 01:40:44 pm
Unfortunately, you have missed the point.

Maybe you were born in 2016?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 16, 2019, 02:42:58 pm
Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
Russell recalled. Almora optioned
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 16, 2019, 02:43:06 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  3m3 minutes ago

Russell recalled. Almora optioned
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 16, 2019, 02:48:05 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  9m9 minutes ago
Kintzler activated, Norwood optioned,
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 16, 2019, 03:06:33 pm
Almora has been Edwardized.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 16, 2019, 03:08:28 pm
Russell arrives, many players going out of their way to greet him.-Mark Gonzales

So much for the narrative that he's unliked and a distraction.

Only soft asses believe that anyway.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 16, 2019, 04:16:34 pm
Sorry, can’t help but laugh over above post.

Cubs averaged 93.5 wins last two seasons and are tied for first place right now. And, all that after winning a World Series.

THRILLED that expectations have so changed for Cubs fans that this is considered a basis for self-immolation.

In today’s world, History doesn’t exist in some quarters and perhaps, in a few respects, that can be a good thing for some things.

Loveable Losers are dead and gone. Cubs are Winners. Anything but the best is a disappointment. All for the good. A blessing that we feel that way now.

Unless I am mistaken, between 2015-2018 season the Cubs had the best record in the NL. I do believe the team has under-performed this year, even while being tied for 1st place in the division. But that is hardly a reason to blow up the team and start over.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 16, 2019, 04:32:41 pm
Cubs are on a pace to win 86 games.

Of course, that would be a major disappointment if it turns out that way. Get that.

But, for a larger perspective:

Cubs went from 1970 thru 1997...and won 86 or more games a total of TWICE.

From 1946 thru 1966, Cubs won 86 or more games...NEVER.

Of course, only Curt and Dave P. were avid Cubs fans back in 1946, but there is a history to the legacy of Loveable Losers and that long, long, long, long era is dead and gone.

Hallelujah!

92.5 wins per season SUCKS!!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 16, 2019, 05:12:59 pm
Almora going to Iowa for a couple of weeks is now at -0.4 bWAR and -0.2 fWAR.

So, a bit less than a replacement level player this season.

Guessing that Happ is going to play more OF than 2B for rest of this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 16, 2019, 05:21:59 pm
Almora going to Iowa for a couple of weeks is now at -0.4 bWAR and -0.2 fWAR.

So, a bit less than a replacement level player this season.

Guessing that Happ is going to play more OF than 2B for rest of this season.
Fascinating to me that a manager so tuned into sabermetrics kept throwing him out there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 16, 2019, 06:19:33 pm
I said three days ago Russell made much more sense for a roster spot than Almora, and that Almora should be at Iowa.  Doesn't make Russell any less of a dirtbag.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 16, 2019, 06:49:14 pm
I said three days ago Russell made much more sense for a roster spot than Almora, and that Almora should be at Iowa.  Doesn't make Russell any less of a dirtbag.

Russell didnt go to Long Beach State.

He was drafted out of high school.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on August 16, 2019, 08:57:41 pm
Is it safe to say that Theo has now gone full Hendry and become MLB's worst chief executive?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on August 16, 2019, 09:00:01 pm
Yep. Nothing wrong with this team. Just keep running them out there. They will turn it around.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 16, 2019, 09:23:04 pm
I came here knowing I'd see as much complaining as a bunch of liberals in a mosque.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 16, 2019, 09:31:26 pm
I came her knowing I'd see as much complaining as a bunch of liberals in a mosque.

Amazing how much hate speech gets tripped up on spelling mistakes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 17, 2019, 05:49:29 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Expectation is that closer Craig Kimbrel will be activated from the IL on Sunday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 17, 2019, 05:54:02 pm
Wittenmyer:

“Bullpen workhorse Steve Cishek (hip) also looks like he’ll be ready to return from the IL on Tuesday when eligible after throwing another bullpen session on Saturday.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 17, 2019, 06:06:48 pm
So, looks like bullpen at full strength shortly.

Wick, Ryan, Chatwood, Phelps, all throwing well.

Kimbrel closing.

Kintzler and Cishek.

Holland, last guy lefty.

Some kind of soreness (my aching back!) to get Strop back to IL for 10 days.

Underwood and Strop and Mills back in September. Maybe Hultzen too? Maples for fun.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on August 17, 2019, 09:30:14 pm
Almora has a single, a double, a steal, and an assist on a throw home tonight in Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 18, 2019, 01:40:47 am
If Descalso hits at Iowa I’d certainly think you find a place for him in September.  He wasn’t always the suckfest he was this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Coach on August 18, 2019, 09:33:40 am
I hope ESPN does a behind-the-scenes piece with Hurdle teaching the Little Leaguers the art of the beanball.  Maybe get the Japanese kids to bow to him.  It should be priceless.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 18, 2019, 10:01:41 am
A COACH SITING!  HOLY COW!  Welcome home!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 18, 2019, 11:06:51 am
Nobody really wants to fire Joe Maddon.  He's a hero.  He broke the long drought.  Is he trying too hard right now?  I think so?  Is he costing us wins?  Maybe, probably.  But I think the real objection is to the word "fire."  Firing sounds so judgemental, so blameworthy.  I think that's why Theocracy seems to just want the clock to run out.  Firing seems unjust to someone who has accomplished what Joe has and is undeserving of a hero.

George Steinbrenner, a precursor to the guy in the White House, was the king of firing.  He changed managers more often than Davep changes underwear.  Maybe he had the right idea maybe.  Sometimes a manager just needs a break, a chance to get away, without pressure, and view the team from a different vantage point.  George did that with Billy Martin FIVE times.  When the team was not responding, he fired him; when the team needed Martin's spark, he rehired him.

It's kind of like education.  The vacations and the long summer are not really for the kids.  They're for the teachers; a chance to recharge the batteries, get a new perspective, and employ a new approach.  Baseball managers don't get the days off like teachers get Christmas and spring break, however.  What if we could have told Joe at the end of June, "Joe, go fishing.  Get out of here.  Don't come back until July 20.  You deserve a break."  But since the season is only 8 or 9 months long, we feel constrained to make a guy making that much money to earn it. 

My opinion right now is that Joe is trying to carry the team that is not playing near to their potential on his own back, and it's not working well.

For those who don't understand where I'm coming from with my frustrations over the Cubs play, I live near St. Louis.  I am exposed to Cardinal propaganda constantly.  I can watch all their games.  I have attended some of their games.  To compare the Cardinals to the Cubs on paper is a joke.  To compare the Cardinals to the Cubs on the field is a joke.  To see the Cubs even with the Cardinals in the standings is not just frustrating, it is embarrassing.  And when some people say, "So what, the Cubs never used to do much and now they win games and are in the playoffs regularly" it bothers me.  It's like those commercials where just okay is not good enough.  Sorry.  JMO
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 18, 2019, 11:58:41 am
Another excellent piece from Sadahev Sharma, this time on the subject of “What the hell is that guy swinging at?”

https://theathletic.com/1141614/2019/08/18/dude-what-are-you-swinging-at-kris-bryant-talks-tunneling-guessing-at-the-plate/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 18, 2019, 01:59:51 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian
While the Cubs haven't announced it, outfielder Mark Zagunis was among the players with the team in Williamsport today. Cubs and Pirates are permitted a 26th man (position player) for tonight's Little League Classic.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 18, 2019, 02:40:25 pm
Kimbrel activated, Underwood optioned.


Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 18, 2019, 05:32:39 pm
Game Notes.

Kyle Schwarber's .139 average on the road since July 1 is the lowest among qualified MLB hitters. He's recorded just seven hits in 50 at-bats in away games since the All-Star break, though five have been home runs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 18, 2019, 06:32:12 pm
Game Notes.

Kyle Schwarber's .139 average on the road since July 1 is the lowest among qualified MLB hitters. He's recorded just seven hits in 50 at-bats in away games since the All-Star break, though five have been home runs.

That doesn't seem very good.  Seems to me that since he was drafted the expectation was that he would be really good at controlling the strike zone and putting up a very good average. While he has become a better LF than many (including me) expected, as a hitter he has underachieved expectations, by quite a lot, other than some very dramatic HRs.  Guessing he is one of the guys who the Cubs will make available in the off-season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 18, 2019, 07:10:48 pm
If Im choosing Castellanos or Schwarber it's not gonna be good for Kyle.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 18, 2019, 11:54:11 pm
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=550&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 19, 2019, 12:40:30 am
Going to be curious to see what the roster move is to make room for Cishek, shortly.

Thought might make another IL move with Strop, but he pitched tonight.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 19, 2019, 11:12:44 am
Some well deserved love for Quintana:  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/19/jose-quintana-dominated-again-last-night-and-is-on-some-kind-of-roll/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on August 19, 2019, 11:43:29 am
Thanks for the Q link, P2. Interesting to read that his success is coinciding with using the sinker up, similar to the adjustment made by Hendricks this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 19, 2019, 06:56:13 pm
Several writers on Twitter are saying that Bote will be optioned to AAA when Cishek is activated tomorrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 19, 2019, 07:17:12 pm
Several writers on Twitter are saying that Bote will be optioned to AAA when Cishek is activated tomorrow.

Bote is already gone according to many.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 19, 2019, 07:17:27 pm
Not a fan of that move.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 19, 2019, 07:24:38 pm
Cishek will make it a 14 man pitching staff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 20, 2019, 06:46:03 pm
Schwarber is a puzzlement.

Even BR and Fangraphs are kind of  puzzled. In 1737 career PAs—basically equivalent of three full seasons—Fangraphs has Schwarber at 7.4 career fWAR whereas BR has Schwarber at 3.1 career rWAR. Under the latter, he falls well short of being even an average regular. Evaluating his defense has a lot to do with this.

Schwarber has a career BABIP of .264, way below MLB average. In 2019, it’s .243–remarkably low. Clearly, shifting really hurts him, and his batting average. If he could hit, say, .255, all his offense  get into new, more positive territory. Can he?

Schwarber is also one of these guys who has a very high % of PAs resulting in either a K, BB, HBP, HR. Schwarber is 44% in 2019. MLB average is 36%.

Maddon was quoted in the Sunday night broadcast as lamenting hitters whose RBIs are only about twice the # of their homers. That fits Schwarber. In a rare AB for Schwarber that game, he singled in two runs by hitting a grounder thru the oppo-shift hole on the left side—-with 2 strikes in the count no less! If he could do that more often, it would open up a lot of things for him. Can he?

As a comp, Castellanos-in only 17 games as a Cub-has 1.0 rWAR as a Cub. Schwarber all season has 0.5 rWAR. Using fWAR, it’s 0.8 and 0.9.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 21, 2019, 05:05:05 am
Jordan Bastian

Verified account
 
@MLBastian
 8h8 hours ago
More
Highest OPS in Cubs history:

1. Nick Castellanos: 1.179
2. Rogers Hornsby: 1.039
3. Hack Wilson: 1.002

*whispers*
minimum 75 plate appearances
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 21, 2019, 04:58:20 pm
A stunning development:
Quote
Patrick Mooney

Verified account
 
@PJ_Mooney
 25s25 seconds ago
More
Theo Epstein announces Brandon Morrow experienced another setback and will not pitch out of the Cubs bullpen this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 21, 2019, 05:20:31 pm
That one's gonna hurt.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 21, 2019, 05:42:38 pm
I     AM     SHOCKED
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 21, 2019, 05:52:49 pm
From Cot's

2 years/$21M (2018-19), plus 2020 vesting option
signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/11/17
18:$9M, 19:$9M, 20:$12M vesting option ($3M buyout)

Quote from: Carrie Muskat December 12, 2017
Morrow agreed to two-year contract that includes a club/vesting option for the 2020 campaign.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 21, 2019, 05:54:13 pm
Trivia - What was Morrow's uniform number?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 21, 2019, 05:58:01 pm
0
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 21, 2019, 06:03:28 pm
15?

I know it from The Show.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 21, 2019, 07:11:51 pm
I can't imagine anyone is going to offer Morrow more than a minor league contract for next season.  Maybe we can work something out on an incentive-laden deal and see if he can make up for some of the money he never earned.  He doesn't "owe" us anything - none of this is his fault and when a GM offers a contract, they accept the risks.  But he might feel like he has something to prove.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on August 22, 2019, 08:02:56 am
Morrow = JD Drew?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 22, 2019, 08:29:06 am
Morrow = JD Drew?
Or Ron DL White
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 22, 2019, 09:48:52 am
Morrow gets three million from the Cubs anyway.  If he has any incentive to work out a deal with the Cubs, it would be because of their rehab facilities, which are said to be the best in baseball.

On the other hand, he has had access to those facilities for two years without visible success.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2019, 10:28:37 am
Not saying he was a malingerer because there's no evidence of that, but the mention of White, reminded me of one guy who seemed to live on the DL always finding a new malady.  I think we got him from the Rockies.  anyone remember?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on August 22, 2019, 10:43:06 am
From the Expos for Scott Downs.  At the time of the trade, few lamented the loss of Downs, but he became a pretty useful reliever later in his career.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2019, 10:51:56 am
The one I'm thinking of buddied up with Josh Vitters and taught him the ropes on Malingering.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2019, 10:52:34 am
"Look, kid, sign the contract and pull a hammy.  Life is good."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2019, 10:54:16 am
Ian Stewart?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 22, 2019, 10:54:18 am
Are you thinking of Ian Stewart? He came from the Rockies for DJ LeMahieu about the same time Vitters got his cup of coffee in the majors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 22, 2019, 01:06:59 pm
Or Ron DL White
Wasn't he thrown out of a bar in New York City?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2019, 01:39:03 pm
Are you thinking of Ian Stewart? He came from the Rockies for DJ LeMahieu about the same time Vitters got his cup of coffee in the majors.
Yes, and when Stewart got to the Cubs he spent most of his stay on the DL, and Vitters hung around with him, and suddenly Vitters was "hurt" too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 22, 2019, 03:38:13 pm
Hendricks

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1164631885873651712
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 22, 2019, 04:06:41 pm
Hendricks

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1164631885873651712

Very cool overlay. Both pitches are identical until just before reaching the batter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 22, 2019, 04:08:19 pm
Yeah, that was really neat. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 22, 2019, 05:42:49 pm
This is way more hilarious than the fart thing:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-cubs-yu-darvish-david-kaplan-twitter-feud-20190822-yxl67j43obbsdkqybm6g6yg4du-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 22, 2019, 05:52:05 pm
Thanks, deeg, that was really interesting. 

I think both may be kinda true?  Yu is predictably going to throw off-speed with two strikes, don't pretty much all pitchers do that? 

I thought it interesting that Maddon didn't seem to know regarding the stats.  Do the Cubs analytics just pass their info to coaches, maybe, and the manager really stays out of it and doesn't even know? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 22, 2019, 05:56:10 pm
I don't think Joe cares about analytics to that extent, to be honest.  He just doesn't want to be bothered.

I was following the Yu-Kap thing on twitter as it was happening.  Pretty damn funny.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 22, 2019, 06:24:11 pm
The thing with Yu's wife's birthday?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 22, 2019, 08:52:57 pm
Sahadev Sharma and 5 others follow[/size]
Matt Clapp
@TheBlogfines

Kyle Hendricks now has 932 1/3 innings of being a 3.09 ERA pitcher in the major leagues.

But he doesn't throw hard so we must vacate the numbers and never talk of him as an ace.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 22, 2019, 08:56:07 pm
Sahadev Sharma and 13 others follow
Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23

The Cubs haven't lost in a week.

This is their first winning streak of at least 5 games since April 27-May 5.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 22, 2019, 09:19:44 pm
5-game winning streak makes a world of difference. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 24, 2019, 05:29:48 pm
The Cubs can't afford to go with a two-man bench on Sunday if Rizzo's back is still a problem. 

One of Daniel Descalso, Albert Almora, or David Bote returns and the Cubs say goodbye to Derek Holland?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 24, 2019, 05:47:48 pm
Unless Anthony Rizzo was put on the IL, David Bote would not be eligible to return as he was just sent down on August 19.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 24, 2019, 11:00:24 pm
Zobrist now at .125 at Iowa and Descalso .154.  Not looking like much help incoming there.

Also, the ship is very rapidly sailing on any chance of Hultzen getting a September callup.  Still no trace of him at Iowa.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 25, 2019, 06:59:06 am
Does anyone think the Cubs will win one of the next four games? I think the offense scoring more than one run  against a starter in any of these games will be an upset.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on August 25, 2019, 07:20:11 am
Does anyone think the Cubs will win one of the next four games? I think the offense scoring more than one run  against a starter in any of these games will be an upset.

I’ll take the over.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 25, 2019, 07:21:10 am
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/24/david-bote-reportedly-coming-back-up-which-means-someone-is-going-on-the-injured-list/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 25, 2019, 11:49:12 am
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs  1h1 hour ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Derek Holland on the 10-day IL (retroactive to 8/24) with a left wrist contusion and recalled INF David Bote from @IowaCubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 25, 2019, 06:49:42 pm
If the season ended today, the Cubs would be playing the wild card game in Washington, D.C.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on August 25, 2019, 07:37:26 pm
Well we'll have Reb in the stands, so that ought to negate whatever home field advantage the Nats would have, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 25, 2019, 07:51:52 pm
4 games behind Nats, still hold 1.5, 2, and 2 game leads over Phillies, Brewers, and Mets. Would be kind of nice to sweep the Mets this week, and kind of get them off the map. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 25, 2019, 08:21:02 pm
Yes, it would be nice to sweep the Mets in New York...vs Stroman, Syndegaard and DeGrom.

That would be VERY nice!  Winning two of three would seem almost unbelievably nice, given our recent play on the road (and Mets' play at home).

And, of course, there's Stroman, Syndegaard and DeGrom.

Tough assignment!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 25, 2019, 08:32:40 pm
Honestly, I'd take one of three at this point.  And you'd better beat Stroman if you want that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2019, 02:58:21 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Cubs recall RHP James Norwood. Cole Hamels placed on MLB paternity list. Still on target to start Saturday
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2019, 04:13:38 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian

Notes from Theo:

• Zobrist facing live pitching while at home in Nashville. No more Minor games scheduled. On target for 9/1 return
• Contreras catching Lester bullpen today. No rehab games scheduled yet.
• Rizzo like out couple days. Thurs return most likely of games in NYM
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 27, 2019, 04:53:17 pm
I think it would be really cool for the Cubs to turn things around and take the Division.  Still quite possible. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2019, 08:05:05 pm
AZ Phil:

Kendall Graveman's TJS rehab is proceeding full-speed ahead and he should be 100% for 2020. It's possible that he could contribute to the MLB club (if needed) later this season. I think he is a legit candidate for the Cubs starting rotation in 2020 (depending on whether there is an opening for him or not), otherwise he could be a multi-inning bullpen arm
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 27, 2019, 09:46:25 pm
That's great, reb. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 27, 2019, 09:49:45 pm
Graveman was nothing special before he got hurt, but he was a pretty dependable BOTR starter.  If we let Hamels walk and trade Quintana, we might need one of those.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 27, 2019, 10:28:02 pm
Cards have now won 15 of their last 18 games.

At start of this stretch, Cards were 3 1/2 behind Cubs.

Cubs are still doing what they were doing before Cards stretch—muddling along—but Cards finally put together a very good line of games.

So, not like Cubs collapsing, just more of the same more or less, which isn’t good enough obviously.

Plenty of of games to go. A year ago on this date, Brewers were 4 1/2 behind Cubs and caught us.

Think rest of this season has a decent chance to be fun unless you’re making a personal decision to mope.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on August 27, 2019, 10:38:45 pm
Cubs lost the division last year by losing 5 of 7 to Milwaukee from 9/1 on. The Cubs will almost certainly have to do something similar in reverse against the Cardinals over the last 10 days this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 28, 2019, 12:00:15 am
Cards have now won 15 of their last 18 games.
...Cubs are still doing what they were doing before Cards stretch—muddling along—but Cards finally put together a very good line of games.

So, not like Cubs collapsing, just more of the same more or less, which isn’t good enough obviously. ....

Yes.  Cubs had the hot streak early, back when they were sweeping Miami and stuff.  Last few months they've kind of been around .500.  When the division was doing so badly, it seemed like playing ~.500 the rest of the way might be better than anybody else.  But now that Cardinals are hitting really well, plus pitching well, now the Cubs playing ~.500 doesn't seem as likely to win the division.  Still, Cubs might hypothetically get hot; and Cardinals might take a dive again, too. 

But wild card seems to be the more realistic recipe.  Phillies are pretty muddling mediocre .500-ish too; Brewers seem unlikely to do more than .500 if even that; and Mets are 3 back.  So it may be that if the Cubs simply play another month of .500-ish ball, or somehow win a couple of extra games above .500, they've still got a good shot to outlast the Phillies, Mets, and Brewers for the 5th-place wild-card spot. 

Obviously taking a one-game-shot on the road in Washington against their ace seems an unfavorable matchup, good shot to be one-and-done like last playoffs; but the Cubs need to be hoping that for upsets, and hoping that the better team doesn't always win in the playoffs. 

The next two games are very important for the Cubs wild-card chances.  Of the next three wild-card chasers, the Mets with their pitching, and with McNeil and Alonzo, may be be the best and most dangerous of the wildcard bubble teams. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 28, 2019, 12:10:36 am

Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #12471 on: August 26, 2019, 09:12:09 pm »

The team that gets hot the last 3 weeks of the season will win the division.  That's what happened last year.  The Cardinals are hot right now, perhaps peaking too early.  The Cubs need to played without the malaise they play with like they did end of last season.  The Cubs can be a steamroller or the loser of a demolition derby.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 28, 2019, 05:20:54 pm
Passan buying into the narrative that Bryant may be available:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27483166/passan-playing-20-questions-2019-20-mlb-hot-stove-season

Again, if the Cubs truly do want a major shakeup this offseason, hard to see how they do it without trading Bryant.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 28, 2019, 05:46:57 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/28/report-rival-executives-believe-cubs-will-listen-to-trade-offers-for-kris-bryant/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: PRCubFan on August 28, 2019, 06:00:51 pm
I love Kris Bryant and even have his jersey, but if he hits the open market he will probably leave the Cubs.  If I were the Cubs, I would try to sign Anthony Rendon this off-season and trade Kris Bryant.  Use Bryant to restock the farm system and hopefully find a good young starting pitcher as part of the return.  Boras represents both players so the likelihood of this happening is very, very low.  Rendon is a couple of years older but if you sign him you have him under control for many years and can lock 3rd base up while also getting some good young talent to bring some fresh talent to the team.     
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 28, 2019, 06:13:13 pm
Could you resign Castellanos and put him at 3rd?

I think so.

And yes. Trade Kris Bryant if you know he's not gonna resign.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 28, 2019, 06:14:06 pm
Think it’s very unlikely that Bryant is traded and even more unlikely he’s traded primarily for prospects. Will have a window for at least a couple more seasons and Theo not going to undermine that effort by making the club worse for 2020.

Basically same kind of report as Olney’s report last off-season (Cubs willing to “listen”). As with Buster’s report, Passan’s report likely to be misinterpreted as more serious than it is. Anytime you have a Boras client who appears to be disinterested in an extension, have to at least “listen.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on August 28, 2019, 06:23:04 pm
Castellanos was unable to stay at third for Detroit
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 28, 2019, 06:25:05 pm
All of the naysayers on a potential Bryant deal conveniently decline to offer any alternative means to reshape the roster.  No one wants to trade Kris Bryant (well, maybe one person does).  But unless you believe a new manager and more incremental changes are good enough, someone from the core has to go. If it’s not KB it probably has to be Contreras, but with Amaya at least two years away that’s a huge gambIe.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on August 28, 2019, 06:27:58 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/28/report-rival-executives-believe-cubs-will-listen-to-trade-offers-for-kris-bryant/

I think that, like every year, the Cubs will listen to trade offers for anyone on the team, or in their system.  Just as any good organization does.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 28, 2019, 07:20:32 pm
All of the naysayers on a potential Bryant deal conveniently decline to offer any alternative means to reshape the roster.  No one wants to trade Kris Bryant (well, maybe one person does).  But unless you believe a new manager and more incremental changes are good enough, someone from the core has to go. If it’s not KB it probably has to be Contreras, but with Amaya at least two years away that’s a huge gambIe.

We talk about tons of potential moves here. Who do you want to bring in that will cost Bryant? Do you have a sensible deal in mind?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 28, 2019, 07:30:31 pm
Im no GM any more than you all are but what if LA gave you something like Urias,Verdugo,and Smith?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 28, 2019, 07:33:54 pm
That’s not going to happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 29, 2019, 12:02:19 pm
Bat buddies: Bryant used Alonso's bat during Mets-Cubs game

http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=27489201
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 29, 2019, 03:11:23 pm
Bleacher Nation with a summary of Theo on the radio:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/08/29/theo-epstein-speaks-cubs-susceptible-to-modern-pitching-different-bullpen-focus-on-september-more/

Earlier this season when I was talking about why I think the offense is dysfunctional/less than the sum of its parts, I commented that the team has too many players with similar flaws that could be exploited by good pitching. Sharma had an article on The Athletic that discussed that exact topic pretty soon afterwards. So I thought this part of Bleacher Nation's summary was interesting:

Quote
I think certain clubs and certain players are going to be more susceptible to certain, modern pitching styles with four seam fastballs at the top of the zone and hard breaking balls, and you can argue that we have more hitters like that than not, which has made us particularly vulnerable. But we also have to adjust. We’ve had time. It’s an adjustment the whole league has had to make, but we have struggled.

With that said, I do see a lot of progress there with a lot of guys on our team … like Ian Happ for example, who struggled with exactly that last season. His 2019 season was spent re-working entire elements of his game. His approach at the top of the zone has improved, the zone with which he can do damage is also creeping up, and his strikeout rate is down. Kyle Schwarber’s strikeout rate is also down, as he’s taken a more contact-focused approach and going the other way, which has led to success. (This response was like music to my ears, given what we just discussed).

You can also attack that pitching style with new personnel, like our acquisition of Nicholas Castellanos, who can handle velocity at the top of the zone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 29, 2019, 10:45:22 pm
Contreras will be at Iowa on Friday for his first rehab game.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 30, 2019, 04:47:33 pm
For the first time this season, Cubs are 12 games over .500.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 30, 2019, 05:06:08 pm
Another awesome win after the disappointment of the Nats series!  Castellanos remains en fuego!!!

And Schwarber now up to .825 OPS and .230 BA. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 30, 2019, 05:46:36 pm
Schwarber has career BA of .229 in almost 1800 PAs.  So, batting .230 is probably who he is.

WAR doesn't like him much. He's right at 1.0 WAR this season in both fWar and rWAR .

Let's say, hypothetically, Cubs re-sign Castellanos during the off-season.  If that happens, does it make sense to keep Schwarber for 2020?  Ideally, Cubs get a good CFer, move Heyward back to RF, and Castellanos in LF. 

No clue who that CFer might be. So, there's that.

Theo seems to think Cubs need a more diverse offense.  Schwarber one of those mostly all-or-none guys.  Homers and walks.  That's not a bad thing but maybe Theo will look for a different type guy or two for next season.

Will be interesting to see what happens in off-season with Schwarber.  Or, maybe Schwarber has a great September and becomes off limits.  Would love to see that happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on August 30, 2019, 05:54:33 pm
Basically since the day I wrote them off the Cubs have become a different team. Not only would I have staked my life on them not sweeping the Mets, I would have bet several limbs they would's win the series or score as many as 4 runs in any game, which they did in all four. Then they get home at 2 am and easily beat the Brewers. I don't know what to think of this team. These last four games are who they can be. Will they do this most of September and roll into the playoffs hot? If so they can beat anyone in a series. Who the hell knows with this team?

On another note I watched Chatwood's performance the other night in NY. Wow! The Mets didn't have a chance against him. If he could ever harness that curveball again he could be the starter that replaces Hamels next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 30, 2019, 06:31:08 pm
Im betting we're seeing the final month of Bryant and Schwarber as Cubs.

There's no way in hell you let Castellanos leave and we cant trade Heyward so that leaves Schwarber without a spot if you add a CFer/leadoff man unless you think Castellanos can replace Bryant at 3rd.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 30, 2019, 06:31:18 pm
This is Schwarber's age 26 season...he MAY never be better than a .230 hitter, but he MAY continue to adjust and improve as he seems to have done this season.

He's serviceable in LF and a DANGEROUS hitter who puts stress on opposing pitchers.  My guess is that he WILL continue to improve and do about what Max Muncy does (about the same HRs as Kyle, but with a .250+ BA).  Who knows?

We do know he's a GREAT clubhouse guy, which is important, and this winter is only arb 2, so he's not going to get really expensive any time soon.  Unless some AL team offers a REALLY good package (that returns Schwarber), I'll certainly hope we keep him for the foreseeable future. 

Further, with Scott Boras as his agent and the show he's put on for us since the trade, I'd say it's a longshot we re-sign Nick...no hometown discounts when represented by The Boras Corporation!!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on August 30, 2019, 06:33:02 pm
I didnt know Castellanos was a Boras client.

That sucks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on August 30, 2019, 07:20:45 pm
Basically since the day I wrote them off the Cubs have become a different team. Not only would I have staked my life on them not sweeping the Mets, I would have bet several limbs they would's win the series or score as many as 4 runs in any game, which they did in all four. Then they get home at 2 am and easily beat the Brewers. I don't know what to think of this team. These last four games are who they can be. Will they do this most of September and roll into the playoffs hot? If so they can beat anyone in a series. Who the hell knows with this team?

Not saying this to be critical but JUST BEFORE you wrote them off, Cubs had won five straight and were 11 over .500.

Now, Cubs are 12 over .500 and have become a different team?

Who knows what kind of team they are. Maybe Cubs have always been capable of excelling for a 50 game period and will do that going forward. Or, maybe it will again be three steps forward and 2 1/2 steps back. Or, maybe something different altogether.

No point in coming to conclusions before the movie is over. The uncertainty can be part of the fun. Following baseball for a long time, we see this kind of thing frequently. Just take it in.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 30, 2019, 07:28:32 pm
Len Kasper - The Brewers have had an off day before 4 of the 5 series with the Cubs this year.

The Cubs were off twice the day before.

There's probably no way around things like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on August 30, 2019, 07:39:08 pm

Further, with Scott Boras as his agent and the show he's put on for us since the trade, I'd say it's a longshot we re-sign Nick...no hometown discounts when represented by The Boras Corporation!!

Why would he need a “hometown discount” to stay here? Why not pay him what he’s worth? Need I remind you that the cubs are one of the richest teams in the league and owned by multi billionaires?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 30, 2019, 08:51:39 pm
Interesting to speculate on what Castellanos might get.  Will he be paid based on his overall body of work in Detroit, or a great three months in Chicago?  No question his defense is subpar, but he's probably close to adequate in left.  Maybe 5 years, $110 million?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 30, 2019, 09:49:22 pm
In the current environment, I can't imagine he's going to get nearly that much.

Andrew McCutchen had a 3-5 year stretch where he was one of the top 5 players in baseball, and he got 3 years, $50 million last offseason. Michael Brantley and AJ Pollock had their injury problems, and they got 2 years, $32 million and 5 years, $60 million respectively. I think those contracts are his ceiling.

And you could argue that players like Yasmani Grandal (1 year, $18.25 million), Mike Moustakas (1 years, $10 million) or DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million) are more comparable free agents. They're a little younger, consistently solid contributors, and had never had that star-level stretch that McCutchen, Brantley, and Pollock all had.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 30, 2019, 10:35:39 pm
Castellanos is 27, exceptionally young for a FA.  I'm not sure any of those guys is a good comp for him.

Still, one does have to consider we're in the collusion era, so maybe that estimate is too high.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 30, 2019, 11:07:14 pm
If the Cubs offered 3 years, $40 million right now, I think he should accept it. Based on the last two offseasons, I think he's a (disappointing) one year contract candidate if he goes to free agency. Moustakas was a year older two years ago, coming off his best season...and no one wanted him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on August 30, 2019, 11:24:30 pm
Jack, Id say there are some problems with the idea that the Cubs should just pay Castellanos what it takes (rather than hoping for a "discount"):

1. Boras is his agent, so he will likely do a great job driving the bidding UP (if he keeps his hitting UP, I'd guess Deeg's $110 isn't way off)

2. Cubs have already PAID some guys (who will still be on the payroll a while) and we already have a BIG payroll

3. We have CORE guys more important than Castellanos to be FAs in a couple years who will demand really BIG money to sign (e.g. Baez and Bryant...and even Rizzo to a lesser extent, if he keeps mashing and stays healthy)...even extending these guys before their FA will be VERY costlly

4. If any team just keeps spending and exceeds MLB thresholds, that team takes a MAJOR hit re the draft (maybe the rules should change, but that's the way they exist now)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 31, 2019, 12:05:54 am
If the Cubs offered 3 years, $40 million right now, I think he should accept it. Based on the last two offseasons, I think he's a (disappointing) one year contract candidate if he goes to free agency. Moustakas was a year older two years ago, coming off his best season...and no one wanted him.

There's no way in holy hell he takes that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on August 31, 2019, 12:15:43 am
He wouldn't take that, but he should. I'd bet a steak dinner that he doesn't break $40 million if he goes to free agency.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 31, 2019, 01:12:04 am
Moustakas' last three years going into FA were .774, .778, .767.  Castellanos is .811, .854 and .849 and he'll be two years younger.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on August 31, 2019, 08:22:17 am
4/75?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 31, 2019, 08:31:43 am
Schwarber's K rate over the past couple of months has been under 20%.  Perhaps he's figured something out?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on August 31, 2019, 08:37:48 am
Schwarber's K rate over the past couple of months has been under 20%.  Perhaps he's figured something out?

Theo recently cited Schwarber and Happ as two examples of guys who had made progress in their approaches at the plate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 31, 2019, 10:34:51 am
Theo may figure that the existing hitters will get better and figure things out. 
Theo recently cited Schwarber and Happ as two examples of guys who had made progress in their approaches at the plate.

Yes, thanks for mentioning that, I'd been thinking that too. 

I think Theo has always been both a believer in the guys he's chosen, and a believer that they can be analyzed and trained into improvement.  If he still thinks they are some analytics and an adjustment away from becoming meaningfully improved, will other teams offer him trade value comparable to what he thinks their future value will be worth? 

In the worst division and with 5 NL teams that make the playoffs, he'll again assemble a roster with a realistic chance to compete for wildcard and division again.

It's possible that he may over-value his guys; if so, that may make it hard to perceive fair-value in trade offers. 

So I project that while he may talk about big changes, that once actual trade discussions occur, he'll make a trade or two with back-end guys but nothing major (Bryant, Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, those would be major). 
*I doubt he'll get the value he'd expect in exchange for Schwarber; but even if he does, trading a platoon guy like Schwarber is definitely significant, but not really super-huge.   
*Almora or Happ or Russell, those aren't really front-end core guys anymore.  He may well turn one or more of those guys over; but that's a tweak. 
*I expect he will again figure to use his tops-in-league budget to buy what he can to tweak and improve the roster. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 31, 2019, 10:41:53 am
Hard for me to guess what budget capacity he'll have.  I see three general areas of relevance:
1.  How much revenue-stream growth is projected, enabling significant budget growth?
2.  How much budget increase will be absorbed by carryover players?  Existing programmed raises, and ballooning salaries for arbitration guys, full-year Kimbrel? 
3.  How much contract will actually come off and be freed from Zobrist, Hamels, and Morrow and perhap other expirings that I'm forgetting? (Cishek, Strop, and Kintzler are $6, $6, and $5.) 

I'm a huge believer in the importance of a deep offense.  So I'd be pretty motivated to bring Castellanos back.  It's pretty evident that Wrigley is well-configured to his HR-power.  Obviously they're already committed to Kimbrel, if they re-sign Castellanos, I think those two guys plus the programmed and arb-based raises would pretty much gobble up the expiring contracts ($13 + 20 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 5).  Basically about $57-60 coming off, but I assume it will take all of that plus maybe a bit more to bring back other existing personnel plus Kimbrel and Castellanos. 

So, probably would depend on payroll growth to buy any veteran relievers to replace Strop, Kintzler, Strop, and Morrow, and to replace Hamels.  Wouldn't surprise me if they didn't kind of try to wing it with hamels-replacement. 

OK, back to this season!

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on August 31, 2019, 11:10:40 am
I don't know that I would call Schwarber a "platoon guy".  He's much improved vs LHP this season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on August 31, 2019, 12:09:43 pm
You can see the changes in Schwarber's approach at the plate. His swing is much more compact. His follow-through almost looks blunted. But he's got *so* much power he still vaporizes baseballs with his simplified swing. I'm pretty optimistic about his continued growth based on the changes made this year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: goblue007 on August 31, 2019, 12:16:37 pm
He wouldn't take that, but he should. I'd bet a steak dinner that he doesn't break $40 million if he goes to free agency.

I’m your huckleberry
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 31, 2019, 02:04:43 pm
I don't know that I would call Schwarber a "platoon guy".  He's much improved vs LHP this season.

He's started 100 games vs RHP, 13 vs LHP.  So you're right, it's not been totally platoon usage.  And he's not been that bad versus lefties this year, .754 OPS.  reb's got a fair point, though, he's a .229 career BA guy, and hitting .230 this year, his 5th in the majors. 

I think statistical variance predicts that if a guy is a career .229-average guy, he's going to have some random .245-.250 season sooner or later.  But I think there's also a chance that with some natural variability, that you've more or less got what you're maybe going to get, a low-average HR-K-BB left-fielder. 

Not sure there's a big trade appetite for that?  So I think most likely Theo brings him back, hopes that next year he adjusts his way into a .250 BA and the boost in OPS and OPS+ and WAR that would probably correlate a modest bump in hit frequency. 

So I'm guessing Schwarber will be back.  I don't think adding a CF and retaining Heyward, Schwarber, and Castellanos would be problematic.  Having four guys for three spots seems quite appropriate to me, given that guys have injuries, Schwarber could mostly platoon, and Heyward might not hit enough to play everyday. 

Not sure the CF is going to be a 160-start guy; don't think we have the money or the prospects to get a high-end CF, plus resign Castellanos, plus address bullpen, plus sign a good Hamels replacement.  So if CF sits sometimes, Heyward sits sometimes when he's struggling or facing lefties, and Schwarbs sits versus most lefties, then I think it makes a lot of sense to come back with the existing three plus the CF-to-be-acquired-later. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 31, 2019, 07:01:59 pm
Zobrist and Descalso both back tomorrow.  But the fact that neither has hit a lick at Iowa doesn't give you much confidence.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on August 31, 2019, 07:26:19 pm
Zobrist and Descalso both back tomorrow.  But the fact that neither has hit a lick at Iowa doesn't give you much confidence.
Ben Zobrist needs to be added to the 40-man roster which currently is at 40.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on August 31, 2019, 08:31:57 pm
Zagunis DFA’d, Bote optioned to Iowa to make room for Zobrist.  Meanwhile we still have Taylor Davis on the 40-Man.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on August 31, 2019, 09:30:16 pm
Why did Bote need to be optioned?  And does that mean he'll need to skip any games?  I'd much rather have Bote playing than Zobrist, if it's not a matter of having both....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 01, 2019, 12:18:47 am
Why did Bote need to be optioned?  And does that mean he'll need to skip any games?  I'd much rather have Bote playing than Zobrist, if it's not a matter of having both....
Zobrist had to be added before Sept 1 to be playoff eligible so all those moves are dated August 31. Look for Bote to return on Sunday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2019, 01:09:26 am
Bote has to be at Iowa for 10 days unless he replaces an IL or waived player.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2019, 01:16:39 am
Zagunis only had 6 homers at Iowa PCL. Evidently, Cubs did not plan to bring him up for September.

Will be interesting to see if there’s a waiver claim on him. If not, Zagunis will be subject to the Rule 5 but otherwise has insufficient seniority to be a free agent of any kind and figures to be back with Cubs organization in 2020 if not drafted.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 01, 2019, 08:40:56 am
Rule 5?  If he's an independent free agent?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 01, 2019, 10:01:44 am
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  8m8 minutes ago
Descalso, Almora, Davis, Garcia, Mills, Underwood and Wieck called up/activated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 01, 2019, 10:28:06 am
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDYxjlRWkAIyVu2.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 01, 2019, 12:08:52 pm
Colin Rea deserves better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 01, 2019, 12:29:42 pm
Bote has to be at Iowa for 10 days unless he replaces an IL or waived player.

Does that apply if the Iowa season has ended?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2019, 01:29:12 pm
Does that apply if the Iowa season has ended?

Earliest Iowa season over—if swept in first round—would be next weekend. So, in any case, not much of a factor.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2019, 01:32:05 pm
Rule 5?  If he's an independent free agent?

If Zagunis gets thru waivers, he’s not a free agent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 01, 2019, 01:45:22 pm
Another fine, informative article from Sahadev Sharma, this one about Yu Darvish.

https://theathletic.com/1175705/2019/08/31/you-have-a-monster-out-there-that-can-do-anything-the-key-to-yu-darvishs-arsenal-might-be-his-splitter/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 01, 2019, 02:04:12 pm
AZ Phil notes that Bote can be recalled earlier if Cubs decide to IL Darvish (and backdate his IL).

With this coming Wednesday an off-day, Darvish could make his next start the following Monday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 02, 2019, 03:45:32 am
Quote
Jonathan Judge
@bachlaw
 In the last 20 years, only one MLB team has had a lower contact rate than the 2019 Cubs.  It's a tough way to make a living, offensively (if you hadn't noticed).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 02, 2019, 10:03:10 am
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  10m10 minutes ago
Alzolay here, roster at 33
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 02, 2019, 10:05:04 am
Bleacher Nation  @BleacherNation  10m10 minutes ago
Interesting. Alzolay was scheduled to start for the Iowa Cubs today, which means the Cubs decided they really needed another arm in the bullpen after yesterday's game, *AND/OR* they are anticipating needing another starting pitcher very soon ...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 02, 2019, 01:35:25 pm
.....the Cubs decided they really needed another arm in the bullpen after yesterday's game, *AND/OR* they are anticipating needing another starting pitcher very soon ...

Counting Chatwood, Cubs used eight relievers on Sunday, so that can change plans.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 03, 2019, 02:31:54 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
The average spin on Brad Wieck's curveball was 2,174 rpm in MLB earlier this year with SD. With Cubs, who had him switch to a spike curve, it's jumped to 2,300-2,500 range
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 03, 2019, 03:14:18 pm
He looked pretty interesting.  Not sure how many of his curves he'll be able to throw for strikes or get guys to chase.

He K'd a guy on a big slow curve, batter was ducking away.  Looked pretty good. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 03, 2019, 04:52:58 pm
He looked pretty interesting.  Not sure how many of his curves he'll be able to throw for strikes or get guys to chase.

He K'd a guy on a big slow curve, batter was ducking away.  Looked pretty good. 

Except the pitch was actually nowhere near a strike, despite fooling the ump.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 03, 2019, 05:02:45 pm
Except the pitch was actually nowhere near a strike, despite fooling the ump.


WGN's K-zone disagrees:

https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1168633502641901568
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 03, 2019, 05:04:18 pm
If you picture the plate as a hexagon cylinder, it very much clipped the plate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 03, 2019, 05:05:02 pm
Or, I agree with Chris.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on September 03, 2019, 05:10:17 pm
Except the pitch was actually nowhere near a strike, despite fooling the ump.

It hit the top of the zone. I’m surprised the ump wasn’t actually fooled.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 03, 2019, 05:17:07 pm
That was a pitch that ordinarily would not be called a strike even if it caught the top of the zone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 03, 2019, 05:26:56 pm
If you look in the play by play and scorebook, it was a strike.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 03, 2019, 06:56:31 pm
That was a pitch that ordinarily would not be called a strike even if it caught the top of the zone.

“Ordinarily” has changed last couple of seasons. A few seasons ago, that pitch typically not a strike. These days, think that pitch called a strike more often than not when in the top, middle of the zone as here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 03, 2019, 06:59:01 pm
Normally people are outraged if a K-zone tracker shows a pitch partially in or even clipping the zone and the pitch isn't called a strike.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 03, 2019, 07:21:09 pm
If you look in the play by play and scorebook, it was a strike.

Yeah, that has any bearing on reality...


Whether it was a strike or not, it certainly made the hitter look bad.  Lefties don't like facing 6'9" lefties.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 04, 2019, 11:32:19 am
I don't understand the argument.

90 percent of the pitches Maddox had called strikes would be called balls today.  But Maddox is NOT pitching today.  And he had the ability to take advantage of the way the zone was being called at that time.

The same applies now.  If Wieck can consistently throw that pitch in that place, and it is consistently called a strike, then he will be an effective pitcher.

But I think it is a little early to assume he can repeat it consistently and that the umpires will consistently call it a strike, based upon one single pitch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 04, 2019, 12:57:48 pm
The only thing is, Dave, that once hitters know he has that big breaker, they won't duck, they'll wait and tee off.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 04, 2019, 03:23:53 pm
Again, it was one pitch to one batter.  Who knows if he can repeat it when necessary.

However, if the release point and initial track are similar to other pitches, it can have the same effect as a change up.  As long as the hitters aren't sure it is coming, it can be a great pitch.  And it isn't as if Wieck has no other weapons.  A middle to upper 90s fastball can not be ignored while waiting for a curve to come your way.

I have no idea if he will be any good.  But he does have very good tools, and comes with rather positive scouting reports.  Like every young player, we will have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 04, 2019, 04:52:00 pm
It's easy to overlook just how good Schwarber has been over the past few months:  https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/09/04/trying-to-hammer-home-just-how-good-kyle-schwarber-has-been/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 04, 2019, 08:14:12 pm
It's easy to overlook just how good Schwarber has been over the past few months: 

It’s not a “few months.”

It’s August.

Schwarber batted .184 in July.

He’s been ying-yanging all season.  He batted under .200 in May too. Then better in June. Poor in July. Excellent August.

If Schwarber has a real good September, on top of his excellent August, that will be telling. Then, maybe he has to be in the longer term picture here.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 04, 2019, 08:50:12 pm
Build that trade value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 04, 2019, 09:04:49 pm
Cubs have optioned Taylor Davis to Iowa.

Evidently, there were too many persons in the Cubs dugout in violation of Chicago city fire regulations.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 04, 2019, 10:36:20 pm
Iowa is in the playoffs.  Probably needed a catcher.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 04, 2019, 10:51:25 pm
When the big club is in September contention, they generally don’t make a move so as to help the AAA club.

Three catchers is enough for the Cubs, so no point in keeping close to 35 players in the dugout.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 04, 2019, 10:54:51 pm
I disagree.  MLB clubs like to protect their minor league agreements.  We didn't need Taylor right now, perhaps Iowa did.  Either way he'll probably be back in a week or two.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 04, 2019, 11:29:46 pm
That’s the point I’m making——Cubs didn’t need Davis. That’s the reason for the move, or main reason.

Sure, it’s useful for Iowa (although Higgins seems to be the primary catcher) to have Davis there. One could say it’s useful for both clubs, as Davis will now get a few ABs—-if Cubs want him back later. (Cubs could not option Davis to Iowa if Iowa wasn’t in playoffs).

Not entirely sure he’ll be back if the three catchers all stay healthy. They might, as a courtesy to Davis—who seems to be a popular guy. Would be a nice gesture.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 05, 2019, 07:51:04 am
Agree with reb.  When the roster allows 40 guys, teams routinely like to have a 3rd catcher.  When Contreras was DL, Davis was 3rd for a couple of days.  With Contreras now active, Davis became 4th; unneeded, goodbye. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 05, 2019, 03:08:57 pm
I think that the Cubs may have post-playing career plans for Davis.  I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't back after Iowa finishes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 05, 2019, 04:09:38 pm
Kimbrel to the IL with elbow inflammation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 05, 2019, 04:13:24 pm
Bad news.  Who's our closer?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 05, 2019, 04:20:01 pm
Wick.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 05, 2019, 04:24:00 pm
Be interesting to find out when Kimbrel started feeling elbow issues.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 05, 2019, 04:36:55 pm

Jesse Rogers
‏@ESPNChiCubs

According to Theo, Kimbrel felt something in his last appearance on Sunday. An MRI showed inflammation but nothing structurally wrong. The move enables David Bote to be recalled. He’s {Kimbrel} eligible to return next Thursday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 05, 2019, 05:27:23 pm
Darvish supposedly good to start this weekend after a side session today. We’ll see.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 05, 2019, 07:04:43 pm
They say the Darvish side session went well, with no problems reported.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 05, 2019, 11:27:37 pm
I hope Joe has a quick hook for Hamels tomorrow. Can't afford to give any games away with the Cardinals playing Pittsburgh.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 05, 2019, 11:28:35 pm
Cubs pull within 2 games of Washington for Wildcard home field. 
Cubs wildcard lead is now up to 3.5 games over Arizona.  Phillies now 4 full games back. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 06, 2019, 02:55:48 pm
Interesting piece on Darvish, with video.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-yu-darvish-throws-10-different-pitch-types
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 06, 2019, 05:21:36 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer  @GDubCub  2m2 minutes ago
Baez to have MRI “just to know what we’re dealing with.” #thumb
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 06, 2019, 05:48:24 pm
Something seems off with the way the Cubs are dealing with injuries this year.  Especially position players.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 06, 2019, 07:18:55 pm
Hultzen is getting called up.  An amazing story when you stop and think about it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 06, 2019, 07:41:19 pm
The only better one would have been if Haggerty had done well and was called up this year.

Maybe next year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 06, 2019, 07:46:52 pm
May be curtains for Rosario.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 06, 2019, 08:00:13 pm
Really happy for Hultzen and his family.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on September 06, 2019, 08:07:50 pm
How did Hagerty pitch this year?  It would be an amazing story if he could get to the majors.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 06, 2019, 09:10:26 pm
How did Hagerty pitch this year?  It would be an amazing story if he could get to the majors.

He didn’t pitch.

https://www.mlb.com/news/luke-hagerty-to-undergo-left-elbow-surgery
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 07, 2019, 08:36:04 am
The Cubs will need to make room for Danny Hultzen on the 40-man roster.

It probably won't happen but Pedro Strop has to be a little worried.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 07, 2019, 08:49:35 am
No he doesn't.

If anybody is worried, it should be Rosario.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 07, 2019, 04:21:33 pm
Baez has hairline fracture in his thumb and will miss the rest of the regular season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 07, 2019, 05:07:33 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ED4wT6gXoAIHUns.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on September 07, 2019, 05:13:44 pm
Baez has hairline fracture in his thumb and will miss the rest of the regular season.

News doesn’t get much worse than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 07, 2019, 05:56:17 pm
I was really hoping for the Cubs to be fully healthy for the stretch run.  They'll need to show a lot of character to overcome the loss of Baez.  I'm still hopeful, but it's going to be tough.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 07, 2019, 06:18:49 pm
Baez has hairline fracture in his thumb and will miss the rest of the regular season.

Len said on the broadcast that Cubs don’t know yet how long Baez will be out. So, premature to say will miss rest of the season. Maybe, but don’t know that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 07, 2019, 06:32:46 pm
Optimistically, 3-4 weeks for fracture healing.  Good chance we'll have him early during the postseason, if we make it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 08:39:28 am
Jon Heyman  @JonHeyman  5m5 minutes ago
Nico Hoerner has been called up by Cubs @PWSullivan 1st mentioned likelihood

Bleacher Nation comments
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/09/09/ummm-is-this-report-saying-nico-hoerner-is-coming-up/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 08:45:06 am
It sounds like the Cubs expect Addison Russell is headed for the concussion list.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 09, 2019, 09:10:03 am
Obviously a total desperation move here, but not like the Cubs have a lot of options.  Hoerner is probably the best of them in pure baseball terms, but you just have to hope this doesn’t hurt his development.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 09, 2019, 10:08:21 am
I assume he would serve as the backup to Bote if Russell is out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 09, 2019, 10:10:32 am
Bleacher Nation assumes that Hoerner will start regularly, but I'm not sure what they base that on.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 10:11:52 am
David Bote may be needed at 3B if Kris Bryant's knee is still "barking"
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 09, 2019, 10:12:39 am
Good point, Bennett.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 10:48:57 am
With Mark Zagunis, Taylor Davis, and now someone to make room for Nico Hoerner leaving the 40-man roster it might be hard to find room for players needing to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 09, 2019, 12:05:35 pm
I don't think Bote is too hot as a defensive SS.  I'd almost think that Hoerner, who is younger and isn't as bulked-up yet, might be more flexible and fluid at SS?  I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting some starts. 

Will be interesting to see how he looks, as a defender.  And obviously as a hitter too. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on September 09, 2019, 12:46:24 pm
Hoerner's callup adds some drama for the San Diego series.  I have tickets for all four games.  Hoping to see rebirth of the playoff drive rather than Something Else.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 09, 2019, 01:07:03 pm
With Mark Zagunis, Taylor Davis, and now someone to make room for Nico Hoerner leaving the 40-man roster it might be hard to find room for players needing to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

The only lock to be added to the roster for Rule 5 purposes, according to AZ Phil, is Amaya. Then, he has PJ Higgins as likely to be added. 

After that, a few 50-50 chance guys like Zach Short, Giambrone, Tyson Miller.  But, Miller had poor showing at Iowa. Giambrone seems like a utility guy. Short perhaps is the best chance to be added of these three, but iffy.

So, don’t need to make much room for the Rule 5 eligibles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 09, 2019, 01:38:25 pm
Hoerner is probably up because Iowa SS Dixon Machado also got hurt a week ago.

Machado has major league experience (about 500 PAs) and was having a good offensive season at Iowa with the juiced ball. He likely would have been the next guy.

So, Cubs having some poor luck at SS in the last week. It’s an emergency situation if Russell is going to be out awhile.

Basically, with Machado out, it was either Zack Short or Hoerner. Short hasn’t hit much at Iowa.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 05:29:33 pm
Jim Callis thinks highly of Nico Hoerner

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-call-up-top-prospect-nico-hoerner?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 05:31:40 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEDksiUWwAAP-oU.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 05:49:55 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  3m3 minutes ago
Bryant had cortisone shot Sunday, still a chance he plays Tuesday

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  4m4 minutes ago
40-man moves, Baez update to come later 

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  5m5 minutes ago
Alzolay optioned 

Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  5m5 minutes ago
Hoerner here, Norwood too.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 09, 2019, 05:49:58 pm
If the young man can contribute then let him contribute.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 05:50:50 pm
Gordon Wittenmyer  @GDubCub  5m5 minutes ago
Alzolay optioned out. Cubs don’t want to add to rookie’s innings. Norwood recalled.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 09, 2019, 06:06:38 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEDksiUWwAAP-oU.jpg:small)

Nice distribution.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 06:12:42 pm
Last worn by CarGo

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEDrsflXoAAp3Z5.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2019, 06:20:12 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  1m1 minute ago
Randy Rosario DFA for Hoerner
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 11, 2019, 02:21:24 pm
Jason McLeod has a new role--Senior Vice President of Player Personnel. It sounds like he'll be more involved in putting together the MLB roster going forward.


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EENNE-LWwAEODTY?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 11, 2019, 02:29:32 pm
br - Good job posting the announcement
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on September 12, 2019, 02:13:49 am
Cubs' chance to win the division down to 16.3%, plus another 33.6% to win the wild card, for a total chance to make the playoffs of 49.9%.  I think the WC odds should be even lower, given that we're tied with Milwaukee.

Hopefully the Cubs will get some fire into them in the two Cardinals series and take the division from them, so that we can at least have the accomplishment of a first-place finish.

And at the other end of the spectrum, for the full-on pessimists: the Cubs have to go 4-13 or better the rest of the way to guarantee a .500 record.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 12, 2019, 02:27:34 am
Its just not coming together this year.

I predicted the Cards to win the division so I shouldnt be shocked but you still hope for better.

Decisions to be made.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 12, 2019, 08:15:29 am
A disappointing loss last night, but I'm not counting out the Cubs.  They have shown resilience in the past and they have a lot to play for.  Just making the playoffs may not appear to be much of a goal, but when you get hot at the right time great things can happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 12, 2019, 09:50:10 am
I would love to see that team that went 23-7 but that was a mirage. The Cubs have been mediocre or worse. This is who they are. I still believe in many of these players and in Theo. I think Ricketts will open the wallet again. With a shake up of a few pieces this could be fixed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 12, 2019, 10:56:12 am
You're right.

We're not a difficult fix.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 12, 2019, 01:05:12 pm
Finishing 2nd Wildcard is 5th place in the league.  Right now there is like a 2.5 game spread between 5th place and 9th place.  The 23-7 Cubs have played .500 since. 

The Cubs are little  different from the other four teams in the 5th-9th place part of the league standings.  17 games to go.  We might be a .500 team, but any .500-ish team might win 10-12 games or lose 10-12 games over a 17-game small sample. 

Probably it isn't LIKELY that we'll win 9 or 10 out of 17 games.  But decent chance that 9 wins will get you in, or get to a tie and 1-game playoff for 5th place. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 12, 2019, 01:18:59 pm
If we finished today, we'd face the Nationals, I believe.  They have a number of choices for SP, who would we use in a one and done? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 12, 2019, 01:31:29 pm
Actually, there would be a one and done with the Brewers first to see who wins the second wild card (and since the Brewers are beating the Marlins right now, the Cubs might be a couple hours from being on the outside looking in).

Based on recent performance, I think Darvish or Hendricks would pitch the Brewers game, then the other would pitch the Nationals game if it got that far. Then Quintana in game 1 against the Dodgers, I guess? Lester and Hamels have both looked pretty bad lately.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 12, 2019, 01:42:14 pm
But...who would the boss pick?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 12, 2019, 01:53:46 pm
Probably Lester.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 12, 2019, 01:57:50 pm
Ding ding ding
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 12, 2019, 02:26:40 pm
Tuesday’s Cubs-Reds game will be bumped off ABC-7 by the ‘Bachelor in Paradise’ finale. Here’s where to find it.

Quote
The Cubs-Reds game originally scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Tuesday on ABC-7 is getting bumped to the newly rebranded CW-26, a move bound to confuse even some diligent viewers who try to stay abreast of which TV outlet is carrying the Cubs on a given day.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-abc-bachelor-in-paradise-20190912-srkxrfj46na2tobkmt7byu4zz4-story.html
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: bitterman on September 12, 2019, 03:54:50 pm
This Cubs team seems to do less with more.  Really good individual players who don’t add up to the sum of their parts.  One day they pitch well and lose 2-0.  The next day the pitching is a walking joke and they lose 9-8.

 It’s not a fun team to watch.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 12, 2019, 04:27:51 pm
I would love to see that team that went 23-7 but that was a mirage. The Cubs have been mediocre or worse. This is who they are. I still believe in many of these players and in Theo. I think Ricketts will open the wallet again. With a shake up of a few pieces this could be fixed.

Are the pieces Trout, Cole and Bellinger?  Because otherwise I don't think a shakeup of a few pieces is going to make it happen - the offense is fundamentally broken (and the SP is getting old, too, though that's an entirely separate problem to solve).  And I've yet to see a plausible route suggested for Theo to do it.  Even if Ricketts decides to open the wallet this winter, it's probably the worst FA for position players in 20 years.  Last winter was the time to try that approach.

Theo is obviously a smart man and capable of being great at his job.  But he's going to have to be to get out of this hole, which is one he largely dug himself.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 12, 2019, 05:02:58 pm
In his recent remarks, Theo has expressed deep frustration not only about the general performance of the team (mostly the offense), but he specifically cited errors and base running gaffs. I have not seen enough games to have any sense of which players have been the most guilty of bad base running, and don't know where to look for any stats on that.

But Theo has often cited the superior defense of the 2016 team as a key to that team's success.  It seems to have been a real source of pride for him. Looking at errors alone, the worst offender this season has been Kris Bryant. Among "qualified" NL 3B, Bryant's 13 errors puts him in a tie for 3rd place for the highest numbers, even though he has only started 99 games (Suarez, who is 1st has started in 136 games by contrast). Bryant's fielding percentage of .944 is next to last among qualified 3B (only the Pirates' Moran is worse).  I know that errors and fielding percentage don't tell the whole story about a player's defense, by a long shot. 

The other player whose conventional defensive metrics sticks out as poor is Contreras. His .986 fielding percentage is next to worst also (Pirate's Diaz has .983). Contreras' 10 errors is tied for 2nd worst (with Miami's Alfaro, who has started 18 more games than Contreras).

Bryant and Contreras are two of the top four offensive players who are as of now certain to be back in 2020.I can't help but wonder if it might make sense to consider moving Bryant to the OF in 2020 (at least for more games), assuming there is someone who could replace him at 3B. 

It seems unlikely that the Cubs' best defensive outfielder, Almora, will be starting a lot of games next season, so I'm not sure how the outfield defense is likely to improve, althoug Bryant in LF would presumably an upgrade over anyone else there. Could he also be a reasonably good CF, allowing Heyward to move back to RF?

The bottom line is that I don't see any obvious ways of improving the defense of the team, as key as Theo believes that to be for success.  Not sure what he's going to do about this.

Thoughts?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 12, 2019, 05:20:45 pm
Sign or trade for a true everyday CF and leave Heyward in right.  Start Hoerner at 2B.  Trade Contreras as the most valuable piece you could realistically move.  That would improve the defense substantially.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 12, 2019, 05:53:44 pm
Sign or trade for a true everyday CF and leave Heyward in right.  Start Hoerner at 2B.  Trade Contreras as the most valuable piece you could realistically move.  That would improve the defense substantially.

Easy to say “get a CFer” but who do you have in mind?  Went thru all 29 clubs rosters recently and tough to find anybody that is a plausible CF candidate.

If you want to downgrade 2020 Cubs offense, trading Contreras is a good way to do it. WS 2016 Cubs—the success model—were .764 OPS at catcher. Contreras is .904 this season.

Contreras is also a really good mechanical defensive catcher too. bWAR has him as a plus defender. Obviously, he is a poor framer, which affects pitching more than making plays defensively. Everything else, he does well. Contreras should stay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 12, 2019, 06:18:02 pm
So, Reb, what are your thoughts on the subject of improving the Cubs' defense next season?  Assuming you think that's a priority?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 12, 2019, 06:24:07 pm
Never said it was gonna be easy. Obviously I’ve been saying over and over meaningful change is going to be very, very hard.  But Ron asked, I suggested.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 12, 2019, 07:05:56 pm
Sign or trade for a true everyday CF and leave Heyward in right.  Start Hoerner at 2B.  Trade Contreras as the most valuable piece you could realistically move.  That would improve the defense substantially.
I think Bryant is a trade candidate because of his contract and agent.  Schwarber is a candidate to an AL team who can stick him at DH.  Contreras is a candidate because, unfortunately, during his injury Caratini and Lucroy were an adequate option that will cost less in the near future.  Hoerner is proving that Russell and Bote are expendable.   Obviously you don't trade them all. 

I like Joe, in spite of some of my posts to the contrary.  He was the right manager at the time he was hired, but, for some time, he is not getting the best out of this team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 12, 2019, 07:12:42 pm
How about a big deal framed around Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 12, 2019, 08:36:52 pm
I really thought it inconceivable that the Cubs would trade Bryant this winter, but I'm less convinced of that now. It seems crystal clear that Theo is deeply disturbed by the performance of the team since the first half of last season. He repeatedly has commented on how easy other teams have found it to pitch to the weaknesses of this team, and the failure of hitters to adjust.  He did, interestingly, praise both Schwarber and Happ for making progress recently in that area.  If he is convinced that the team needs a major upgrade in both managing the strike zone and in defense, that is going to require some significant changes in regulars.

As many have noted, there is no easy fix for this. Adding a single player is not going to make a significant difference. The one thing that could result in upgrading multiple positions would be to trade either Bryant or Baez. The general view is that Bryant will be gone after two years, while there is not that assumption with Baez. Plus Theo has been pretty effusive in Baez being really central to the team.  If Theo believes this team, as constituted, is incapable of curing the fundamental offensive weaknesses displayed this season, might he decide it is worth the short term risk of trading Bryant if he can receive 2-3 young high promise players who have the potential to be key players, and who have better skill at "managing the strike zone" and providing better defense than the current roster does?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 12, 2019, 09:48:07 pm
Bryant’s injury issues two years running will really have hurt his trade value.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 13, 2019, 12:04:22 am
What the 2016 club had in position players that 2019 Cubs don't have are 1200 plate appearances going to Fowler and Zobrist, who had OBPs of .393 and .386 respectively in 2016.  Plus, these guys had extra base punch too (OPS of .840 and .831).

That's two positions out of eight starters.  Get back to that.

Cubs have five guys that should not be going anywhere:  Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Heyward---the latter mainly because of his contract but, in any case, Heyward has been pretty good this season overall.  Don't see how it helps Cubs position player lineup to trade any of the other four.  Get it that Cubs may "listen" about Bryant, but that's because he's likely a goner after 2021 and not because 2020 Cubs are better without him.

That leaves three positions.

One, Schwarber in LF, seems to be making the kind of progress lately we've been waiting for. Inclined to keep him for 2020. Also, don't see major trade value for him in any case.  Would like to see if can get even better in 2020. And, really the only lefty power bat other than Rizzo.

So, we're back to two positions (see above).   2B guy (Zobrist 2016) and OF guy (Fowler 2016).

Think Cubs should go all in trying to get Merrifield.  Yeah, will be hard to do that. There's an argument that Merrifield is the most similar player to earlier-career Zobrist than any player in the majors right now.  Sure, there's a risk he's already having his peak seasons but Zobrist lasted pretty long well into his 30s.  Everything is a bit of a risk. Put him at 2B.  If Hoerner is good to go mid-season, you can move Merrifield around at all three OF positions too.
 
Merrifield is a 3.3 bWAR player in 2019 so far.  Not really a star, already in his 30s---not like trying to trade for a BIG star.  Start with offering up Miguel Amaya.  See who else Royals like.  Ian Happ has value.  Bote has value.  Other prospects, excluding Davis, Marquez, Hoerner, have value.  Put a combo together that makes sense.

One other guy too, an OFer.  No idea who that might be. Stumped as to a CFer out there and available.  Will be surprised if it's Castellanos back. 

If Ricketts really want to go all in and spend, one idea raised on the board awhile back is going after Anthony Rendon as a FA and moving Bryant to RF.  Heyward in CF, not ideal but tell me a significant CF upgrade. So, Bryant becomes the OF upgrade.

It was important to develop Bryant as a 3B early in his career and Cubs did that. But, looks like he's probably leaving after 2021 so less concerned about that if Bryant willing to buy in for a OF move.  Would take a special case, such as Rendon, to do that. And, Bryant having some throwing problems this season at 3B.

Boras represents both Rendon and Bryant. Maybe Boras can get his Rendon money with Cubs and, at same time, convince Bryant it's a good idea for Bryant.   Ha Ha, thanks Scott.   

If can't score runs with a lineup of Merrifield-Rendon-Rizzo-Bryant-Baez-Schwarber-Contreras_Heyward, then baseball is truly a mystery.

Yeah, a tough plan to execute. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 13, 2019, 12:11:32 am
Nolan Arenado is on the market, supposedly.  With that contract I would imagine you could take him off Colorado's hands without that much talent going back.  But the reality is, he's about to be 29, has a full 200 point OPS Coors split, and by the time that contract is up it's almost sure to be an albatross.  At least he's a good defender, and probably will be for a few more years.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 13, 2019, 12:19:32 am
In his recent remarks, Theo has expressed deep frustration not only about the general performance of the team (mostly the offense), but he specifically cited errors and base running gaffs. I have not seen enough games to have any sense of which players have been the most guilty of bad base running, and don't know where to look for any stats on that.

But Theo has often cited the superior defense of the 2016 team as a key to that team's success.  It seems to have been a real source of pride for him. Looking at errors alone, the worst offender this season has been Kris Bryant. Among "qualified" NL 3B, Bryant's 13 errors puts him in a tie for 3rd place for the highest numbers, even though he has only started 99 games (Suarez, who is 1st has started in 136 games by contrast). Bryant's fielding percentage of .944 is next to last among qualified 3B (only the Pirates' Moran is worse).  I know that errors and fielding percentage don't tell the whole story about a player's defense, by a long shot. 

The other player whose conventional defensive metrics sticks out as poor is Contreras. His .986 fielding percentage is next to worst also (Pirate's Diaz has .983). Contreras' 10 errors is tied for 2nd worst (with Miami's Alfaro, who has started 18 more games than Contreras).

Bryant and Contreras are two of the top four offensive players who are as of now certain to be back in 2020.I can't help but wonder if it might make sense to consider moving Bryant to the OF in 2020 (at least for more games), assuming there is someone who could replace him at 3B. 

It seems unlikely that the Cubs' best defensive outfielder, Almora, will be starting a lot of games next season, so I'm not sure how the outfield defense is likely to improve, althoug Bryant in LF would presumably an upgrade over anyone else there. Could he also be a reasonably good CF, allowing Heyward to move back to RF?

The bottom line is that I don't see any obvious ways of improving the defense of the team, as key as Theo believes that to be for success.  Not sure what he's going to do about this.

Thoughts?

2016 Cubs had historically great defensive efficiency.  As Theo has said, big dropoff since then on defense.

I have no clue why 2016 club measured so well defensively, compared to 2019 Cubs.  Anecdotally, seems true.  That's what I remember.

2016 club had Rizzo and Bryant at the corners (La Stella 24 starts at 3B).  Zobrist started 113 games at 2B.  Russell at SS.  Baez started combined 95 games at 3B, 2B, and SS.  LF was a hodgepodge of 51 starts for Soler, 36 Bryant, 24 Coghlan, 21 Contreras, 25 Szczur/Zobrist.  Fowler in CF--an unusually good defensive year for him but hardly a gold glove and the great Heyward in RF.  C was so-so Montero 64, capable Ross 50, Contreras 41.

Puzzling why that club so much better defensively than in 2019.  No clue how to get back to something like that.  First you'd have to figure out why it was so good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 13, 2019, 08:54:17 am
A look at Darvish's 10 pitches (which likely undercounts his true arsenal:

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-yu-darvish-throws-10-different-pitch-types

Also, he can throw breaking balls lefty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 13, 2019, 11:31:40 am
Easy to say “get a CFer” but who do you have in mind?  Went thru all 29 clubs rosters recently and tough to find anybody that is a plausible CF candidate.

I read somewhere this week that after the Pirates pick up their option on Starling Marte this offseason, they could still trade him. Granted, his defensive metrics are down this year...but he can handle the position.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 13, 2019, 12:48:23 pm
Bryant played center in college just a few years ago. He had the speed. Maybe if he devoted to it full time he could be good there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 13, 2019, 03:57:38 pm
I suggested Bryant to CF when Fowler left and again a couple of weeks ago.  People forget that Joe used him in CF often his first year up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 13, 2019, 05:54:37 pm
I don't think Bryant would ever be even average in CF.  Passable is probably his ceiling.  I suppose it's a theoretical option but not one that inspires much excitement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 13, 2019, 07:24:33 pm
CF is not the ideal position for someone who has wheel problems.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 13, 2019, 07:36:51 pm
CF is not the ideal position for someone who has wheel problems.
What position is?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 13, 2019, 07:41:00 pm
3B is better.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 13, 2019, 07:53:54 pm
Or left.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 13, 2019, 08:27:18 pm
Until this knee injury he hasn't had wheel problems. He is usually one of the fastest in the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 14, 2019, 05:22:43 pm
Run differential
Cubs       +102
Cardinals +100
Brewers     -34
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 14, 2019, 06:59:21 pm
https://twitter.com/MaxSportsStudio/status/1172976941122691075
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 14, 2019, 07:57:40 pm
So is Nico Hoerner the answer to our leadoff man question?

Where does he fit in now?

I'd assume his minor league days are over if he doesnt struggle right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 15, 2019, 02:58:19 pm
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian

From Cubs: MRI on Monday for Rizzo to reveal severity of a right ankle sprain. X-rays taken today did not reveal a fracture
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 16, 2019, 07:52:42 am
Cubs pitching allowed 8 runs Friday and 6 yesterday. Really only had one well pitched game all weekend yet dominated. As important as pitching is, it sure is fun to score lots of runs and give the staff a breather.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 16, 2019, 10:33:59 am
Yeah, it's pretty awesome to just be able to outscore what the tired old veteran starters allow and win easily anyway.  And being able to have the expanded rosters to allow Mills and Norwood and Underwood to absorb innings has been fun. 

Not sure if it means anything.  But Strop has sequenced two perfect innings, and hasn't allowed a hit yet in his 5 September appearances.  Small sample, I haven't watched any of them, I don't believe any were in game situations or against good teams.  So perhaps fluke.  And perhaps there's still no velocity, and if he gets used in a tight game against Cardinals, or against Suarez and Votto, maybe he'll be terrible again.   
https://www.dropbox.com/s/t41nc4hlz3br3aa/Screenshot%202019-09-16%2010.29.08.png?dl=0

But as a super likable guy, it would be really kinda fun if he ended up pitching a few winning innings in the regular season to help get the Cubs into the playoffs.  Perhaps postseason too?  Would be kind of awesome to get last year's version of Strop back, by some unlikely shake of magic. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 16, 2019, 02:46:53 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEm6fe7XkAUdD5C.jpg:small)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 16, 2019, 03:39:55 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  40s40 seconds ago
Rizzo in a boot for 5-7 days. Then timeline determined. MRI revealed sprain.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 16, 2019, 10:11:22 pm
So is Nico Hoerner the answer to our leadoff man question?

Where does he fit in now?

I'd assume his minor league days are over if he doesnt struggle right?

I will be extremely surprised if he starts next season in the majors.  It is not unusual for a unscouted kid to begin his career in September doing quite well, but the vast majority find themselves unable to deal with the league's adjustments to him, and he requires more minor league seasoning.  Even then, most don't ultimately make it.

Remember Junior Lake.  Or for those CurtOne's age, Bob Speake or Abner Doubleday.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 16, 2019, 10:14:28 pm
I'm not sure I agree, Dave.  He has displayed ML ability in the heat of a race for the postseason.  He seems to currently be the best option at 2B of those on the roster.  It would not at all surprise me if he starts 2020 on the ML roster. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 16, 2019, 10:48:23 pm
Agree with P2.  SOMEBODY will need to play 2B.  And with 2B to fill, two outfielders to pay (CF and a corner), a good RH reliever to pay, and a second RH reliever, that should be 3-4 significant contracts to take on before you even try to fill 2B. 

They've got a lot of spots to fill and will already need to spread the limited discretionary budget around.  Giving 2B to a cheap rookie who just might be as capable as anybody else they could acquire, or more so, makes a lot of sense to me. 

I suppose they could bring ben's guy Russell back for yet another shot, and Happ too.  Hard to envision Hoerner getting beaten out by Happ, though, for 2b.  Not sure they're going to want to bring back Russell on his salary given his hitting limitations. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 16, 2019, 11:13:50 pm
Let's not forget Hoerner had a .740 OPS in the minors this season.  Penciling him in as the regular 2B opening day is very premature.  Not saying it won't happen but it's far from a lock.

I suspect the Cubs are going to try and meaningfully improve their offense either in CF or at 2B via trade.  Which way it ends up going could determine where Nico starts the season.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 16, 2019, 11:19:53 pm
I don't guess their payroll is going to exceed $350.  They'll need to cut some corners somewhere.  They could do competition and divvy things up.  Bote, Happ, Hoerner, Russell could compete for 2-3 roster spots, and then play the hot hand at 2B?  One or two of the losers could go to Iowa, I'm guessing all still have options? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 16, 2019, 11:28:54 pm

Stats By STATS
‏ @StatsBySTATS
53m53 minutes ago

The @Cubs' Nicholas Castellanos is the third right-handed hitter in MLB history to have at least 55 doubles and 25 homers in a season.

He joins Hall of Famers Hank Greenberg (1934) and Joe Medwick (1937).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 16, 2019, 11:47:12 pm
Pay the man.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 17, 2019, 12:09:40 am
I don't guess they're payroll is going to exceed $350.  They'll need to cut some corners somewhere.  They could do competition and divvy things up.  Bote, Happ, Hoerner, Russell could compete for 2-3 roster spots, and then play the hot hand at 2B?  One or two of the losers could go to Iowa, I'm guessing all still have options? 

That doesn't sound like the radical retool of the offense whose urgency one good weekend against a horrible pitching staff doesn't invalidate.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 02:05:50 am

Sahadef Sharma
@sahadevsharma
If you're wondering why Brandon Kintzler hasn't pitched much lately, he has a mild left oblique strain that they've been monitoring
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 08:44:31 am
That doesn't sound like the radical retool of the offense whose urgency one good weekend against a horrible pitching staff doesn't invalidate.

"radical retool":  is that Theo's phrase?  GM's may have big visions, but often settle for more incremental steps. 

Limited resources is key.  Cubs already outspent everybody in the league by >$25 (CBT); at >$225 we were the only NL team over $200.  (At least, based on opening-day payrolls. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2019-mlb-opening-day-payrolls-red-sox-cubs-yankees-open-season-above-competitive-balance-tax-threshold/  And having added Kimbrell and Castellanos, we've probably added more than other high-spenders.) 

We've got a thin farm system, so aren't best equipped to trade heavily. 

I'm not sure how much CBT payroll they're going to use.  $250? $275?  I don't anticipate going over $300, but I have no idea. 

But my guess is they're going to need to pick their spot, and will need to take some chances.   You can't buy 5-7 good safe asset winners and expect to stay under $300.  So  between Hamels-replacement; good CF; good 2B; good corner OF; and 2-3 good relievers, we're not going to end up being able to sign safe winners for all of them. 

So, they're going to need to "settle" in some spots.  They're just going to need to take their chances and wing it. 

This is meant sincerely, not snarky.  But to some degree, over the last 5 years, Theo hasn't consistently actually actually executed offseason that we'd understood him to have talked about or wanted to do, based on end-of-season comments.  Back in the early Baez/Soler years, there were recurring intentions to acquire young pitching, and that was back when we seemed to have some surplus of promising young position players.  But for all of the Baez-for-X or Soler-for-Y discussions we had on the board, since Arrieta the only young starters Theo has actually traded for have been what, that Butler guy off waivers from Colorado; and Warren from the Yankees in the Castro trade?  I'm not at all suggesting Theo was lying or insincere in "wanting" and "intending" to add young pitching talent; but when it came down to who was actually available and what the trade cost would be, he never found that to be advantageous.  Last year there was talk about shaking up the offense, and I'm sure the intention was sincere; but when it came down to cases, none of the prospects he had to seel or the Happ and Russell and Schwarber type guys ended up commanding enough interest in trade to make a deal, so his shakeup ended up being adding Descalzo.  The Darvish/Morrow/Chatwood/Cishek winter, that was a big breakout winter, when he said he was going to go after pitching and he really did.  (Even beyond his intentions, since he hadn't expected to be able to snag Darvish.)  So, sometimes goal and action do match.  (Remember after 2016 he'd said the target was to add more strike-throwers?  The current version of Cishek doesn't quite fit that description, and obviously Chatwood never did....)   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on September 17, 2019, 08:47:52 am
The Cubs do not have limited resources. I guess, strictly speaking they do in that they do not have an infinite amount of money.  But, if it only takes money to get the upgrades they need, they have plenty. If they do not spend it, it's because they choose not to not because it doesn't exist.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 17, 2019, 08:55:44 am
Agree with P2.  SOMEBODY will need to play 2B.  And with 2B to fill, two outfielders to pay (CF and a corner), a good RH reliever to pay, and a second RH reliever, that should be 3-4 significant contracts to take on before you even try to fill 2B. 

They've got a lot of spots to fill and will already need to spread the limited discretionary budget around.  Giving 2B to a cheap rookie who just might be as capable as anybody else they could acquire, or more so, makes a lot of sense to me. 

I suppose they could bring ben's guy Russell back for yet another shot, and Happ too.  Hard to envision Hoerner getting beaten out by Happ, though, for 2b.  Not sure they're going to want to bring back Russell on his salary given his hitting limitations. 

I am not sure that we have a CF and corner outfielder spot to fill.  With Schwarber in left and Heyward in right, that leaves only center field.  I personally think that they are going to go strongly after Castellanos, and if they are successful, that moves Heyward over to center.  I don't think the front office would hesitate in the slightest in going into the season with that outfield.  They may not be comfortable with Happ and Almora as the outfield reserves, but that is a much more minor problem.

If they are really concerned with defensive fundamentals, a keystone combination of Baez and Russell is probably the best in baseball.  I personally hope that they do not keep Hoerner in the majors, even if he does well in the spring.  I am tired of promising young players having their careers stunted by rushing them to the majors before they are ready.  I realize that this is not a popular opinion.

The front office has always been reluctant to spend big money on relievers.  I don't think that their experience with the signing of Kimbrell will improve their attitude on this.  I expect more targeting of the Cisheks, Stropes, etc. of the world.  But that does leave a fair amount of money available under the cap to go after Castellanos and perhaps a tier two second baseman, but I think it is most likely that they will target their right handed starting staff.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 17, 2019, 08:58:53 am
I would hope that Castellanos sees the value in playing at Wrigley with this Cubs team.  There's a good chance they work out a deal for him.  If they get him, I'm not sure they need to do anything else major in terms of position players.  They could use another solid starter to replace Hamels.  They seem to have enough quality bullpen arms.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 17, 2019, 09:05:20 am
If you're going to have a sprained ankle, it's helpful if you play first base and have no speed on the bases.  Rizzo can play at less than 100% without a major risk of reinjury.  I think we'll be surprised at how quickly he returns.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 09:11:50 am
In terms of trading from farm, to some degree I think they'll need to be careful.  Obviously Theo is the ultimate Nowacrat, so he may not care. 

But I'd keep Davis off topic.  Schwarber has 2 years left, Heyward 4 more, but how playable he'll be in last couple of years is uncertain.  So I'd think you'd want to hold onto Davis.  Keep the one position prospect with a chance to become an asset starter and middle-of-lineup guy. 

Likewise I'd keep your favorite handful of pitchers off market.  (Marquez, Abbott, Alzolay, Franklin, Gallardo, Thompson???)  Hamels is expiring, and assuming his replacement is not Alzolay or Abbott, that replacement may need replacing pretty soon.  Next year, three rotation spots will all be expiring:  Q, Lester, and Graveman/Chatwood.  So with those needs opening so quickly, I really think you want to hold onto all of the good internal candidates that you've got. 

So to some degree, I kind of feel like any "trade" discussions involving minor-leaguers may tend to be C-grade or low-B-grade type guys, more on par with Lange and the other guy we traded for Castellanos rental.  Or really half-baked former prospects like Happ and Almora.  Obviously ultra-Nowacrat Theo may move it differently, so if he thinks he's getting a several-year starter he may be fine to cash in Happ/Almora plus Marquez and Abbott, or whatever.  But even if you do package Marquez and Abbott, I don't think that's going to get you an asset starter on cheap contract with 3 years of control left, or anything like that.  Perhaps more likely a trade involving prospects would tend more towards taking on a contract with limited control, where it's not really talent equivalence, but is enabled more by contract and limited contract-control.  (In other words, a "trade" might be involved, but it will be more like "buying" the guy...) 

My point, I guess, is that if we want to keep Davis and several best/favorite pitching prospects for Buildican reasons, there may not be a lot of talent-value left to shop with.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on September 17, 2019, 09:22:42 am
Casty was rumored to be asking 30 million a year from the Tigers. I dont think he's going to get that. If they can get him for 25 a year, they should jump all over that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 09:32:19 am
I would hope that Castellanos sees the value in playing at Wrigley with this Cubs team.  There's a good chance they work out a deal for him.  If they get him, I'm not sure they need to do anything else major in terms of position players.  They could use another solid starter to replace Hamels.  They seem to have enough quality bullpen arms.

I agree with trying seriously to resign Castellanos.  His stroke seems really a perfect fit for Wrigley. 

In terms of revamping the offense, I also think he's a very good fit for that.  I may be wrong, but my sense is that part of it has been that a lot of their guys may be a bit too similar in terms of strengths and weaknesses, and may be variably vulnerable to somewhat similar types of good pitchers?  Maybe that's less true now that some of Theo's prospects have phased out.  But guys like Happ, Schwarber, Bote, to some degree these guys really struggle with velocity in the upper half of the zone. To much lesser degree I wonder if that maybe isn't also a less-strong area for Bryant, Contreras, Rizzo, and Baez as well?  Really productive hitters, but maybe prefer bottom-half to upper-half pitches? 

To some degree, it looks like Castellanos might handle the upper-half stuff relatively well?  Way too small of a sample size with Hoerner, but in the handful of AB's I've seen, my initial impression is that Hoerner maybe likes the upper half better than he likes the lower half?  Both of those guys also kind of profile a bit like guys who might be relatively well suited to some situational hitting?

P2, my feeling is that Schwarber-Heyward-Castellanos would be a really weak OF defensively, variably below-average at all three spots.  None are terrible, so maybe going with three 40th-percentile type defenders is fine, you can't have everything, and maybe that's the "settle" compromise you make.   



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 17, 2019, 09:44:19 am
They play half their games at Wrigley where their defensive limitations are less of a factor.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 17, 2019, 10:32:12 am
Casty was rumored to be asking 30 million a year from the Tigers. I dont think he's going to get that. If they can get him for 25 a year, they should jump all over that.

I still think everyone here is seriously overestimating what Castellanos is going to get in this market. He's been great for the Cubs, but his track record is more of a good-not-great hitter. He's one of the worst defenders in baseball and will probably need to be a DH during his next contract if it's longer than 3 years. He's consistently been a 2-3 fWAR player (between 2.0 and 3.0 in each of the last four years), but typically comes in between 1-2 WAR on Baseball Reference (BR seems to penalize bad defense more than Fangraphs). Really, the only thing that makes him especially appealing as a free agent is his age.

I can't imagine this front office is going to commit to a Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos outfield anyway. They're going to want to improve the defense which has been pretty sloppy at times this year. Heyward is below average in center field, and the other two are even further below average no matter where they play.

Unless the market drastically changes from the last two years, I'm still convinced he's going to land somewhere between Michael Brantley's contract (2 years, $32 million) and Andrew McCutchen's contract (3 years, $50 million) from last offseason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on September 17, 2019, 11:26:16 am
I think they need to keep him to help change the lineup in a more positive manner. I also think his numbers have been very deflated playing with the Tigers. He is a professional hitter. If they can get him to a JD martinez contract, they should do it.

If the cubs can add Whit Merifield and keep casty, the line up is drastically different. I'd also trade away Kyle and Happ, and make sure no one is tempted to ever insert either into the line up ever again.

Merifield will cost Wilson ++ but i think its worth it, the window starts closing when Bryant walks, and Rizzo is not getting any younger. Go all out in the next 2 years and try and get another ring.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on September 17, 2019, 11:40:10 am
Who is Wilson?
Castellanos and Merrifield is what we need as our offensive upgrades....how we get Merrifield is the million dollar question.

He becomes the answer to the leadoff position and can shuttle between CF and 2B....

A productive lead off guy is where we need to start this offensive upgrade
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 17, 2019, 11:47:18 am
Haven't the Royals made it pretty clear that they aren't trading Whit or has that changed?

The starting rotation is a more urgent need to be addressed.  The current rotation is rocking a 4.10/4.17/4.24 rotation and they are losing Hamels.  Adding somebody like Cole will make the team a lot more competitive. 

Hoerner being a high walk, low K is the type of hitter that the Cubs need and it will free up money for Nick. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 17, 2019, 11:57:00 am
The Royals do have new ownership, so priorities could have changed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 17, 2019, 01:00:25 pm
In terms of trading from farm, to some degree I think they'll need to be careful.  Obviously Theo is the ultimate Nowacrat, so he may not care. 


I am not sure how to respond to this.  Calling Theo the ultimate Nowacrat seems to me like calling CurtOne an obvious teenager.

The trade of Cease and Jiminez was certainly a nowacrat move, but even with that trade, they got back a better than average pitcher with several years of low cost salary.  No question about the Torres/Chapman trade, but in that case he was trading from an obvious surplus, with a young Baez and Russell that were at least equal, if not superior prospects.  Trading Soler and Vogelbach did not happen until it became clear that they were really going to be mostly DHs.  Beyond that, they have traded their class B prospects.  Candelario and others of that level.  Most people believe that they tended to keep their top tier prospects too long, resulting in a loss of value with Happ, Russell, Almora and even Schwarber.

Epstein is more of a nowacrat than I personally would like, but I have a hard time seeing him even as midway between the extremes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 17, 2019, 01:58:46 pm
The Royals do have new ownership, so priorities could have changed.

Unless they change GM's I'm not sure it will.   I'd be willing to bet that Nico can put up similar offensive numbers to Merrified.  Nico is a high walk, low K guy who makes a ton of zone contact.  The kinda hitter that the Cubs haven't had and all he costs in the league minimum.  I don't think there is a lot for him to learn in the minors other than bad habits.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 03:20:54 pm
Don’t see Castellanos getting JD Martinez money.

Castellanos has career 7.0 bWAR in 880 career games, which is about 5 1/2 full seasons. Martinez had 6.4 bWAR just in 2018 alone.

Castellanos has been terrific in about 1/4 of a season here but there is a recency bias attached to that. Think that Theo will be very careful in assessing what Castellanos likely to do during his next contract. Don’t see Theo going all in to re-sign him. Will pursue him, yes, I would think, but will consider more than this stretch. Castellanos had a career before he got here. Yes, he’s better suited to Wrigley, but he’s still a guy with a lesser track record.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 03:34:07 pm
Haven't the Royals made it pretty clear that they aren't trading Whit or has that changed?

Royals set a very high price tag for Merrifield, but apparently negotiated/discussed with some clubs before the trade deadline.

Setting a very high price tag is not the same as “clearly not trading him.”

Merrifield is such a good fit for the Cubs that I would expect Theo to be negotiating for him again this off-season. Yeah, would cost more than 100 cents on the dollar so perhaps nothing will happen but guessing there’s a decent chance it might.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 03:38:13 pm
Thanks for your thoughtful post, Dave.  That is helpful, and somewhat reassuring.  The view that Theo has never traded an A prospect without have it be from surplus or a blocked position is somewhat relevant now.  Or, maybe; I'm not sure that any of our guys really would qualify as an A prospect, although for the moment I'm seeing Davis and Brailyn that way. 

But from the "surplus" perspective, the Cubs don't have surplus of anything.  It's hardly like the Cubs have so many long-term fixtures in the outfield that Davis won't have an opportunity.  Just as we don't have so many talented young pitchers under club-control that a young pitcher who's actually good will be blocked.  The window is wide open for pitchers. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 17, 2019, 03:43:44 pm
How about this for a Bleacher Bums Forum motto?


https://streamable.com/va92h
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 17, 2019, 03:51:55 pm
Quote
Whatever intangible reasons the Cubs might have for formally placing Addison Russell on the concussion injured list on Sunday, they gained one clear tangible advantage.

By assuring that Russell will have at least seven inactive days during the expanded-roster period, the club avoids paying him a $100,000 contract bonus.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2019/9/17/20871055/cubs-addison-russell-bonus-concussion
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 17, 2019, 03:54:33 pm
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2019/9/17/20871055/cubs-addison-russell-bonus-concussion

Bearing in mind this is from Gordon Wittenmyer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 04:19:39 pm
Don’t see Castellanos getting JD Martinez money.

Castellanos has career 7.0 bWAR in 880 career games, which is about 5 1/2 full seasons. Martinez had 6.4 bWAR just in 2018 alone.

Castellanos has been terrific in about 1/4 of a season here but there is a recency bias attached to that. Think that Theo will be very careful in assessing what Castellanos likely to do during his next contract. Don’t see Theo going all in to re-sign him. Will pursue him, yes, I would think, but will consider more than this stretch. Castellanos had a career before he got here. Yes, he’s better suited to Wrigley, but he’s still a guy with a lesser track record.

Thoughts: 
1.  Martinez 6.4 bWAR in 2018 was AFTER he'd received his contract, not before. 
2.  His contract isn't really that high.  Around $22 per year, sub-Heyward, only a shade above Hamels.  So I'd think Castellanos might get that.
3.  The four years prior to getting Martinez contract, he'd had OPS+ of 154, 139, 142, and 168.  Like, REALLY good, more so than Castellanos
4.  Castellanos, previous three seasons:  OPS+ 120, 112, 128.  This year, counting both Detroit and Cubs, he's 122.  (Cubs only, 161!!)   
5.  I imagine Castellanos might perhaps be similiar to Cubs-version Aramis:  his first 6 full seasons with Cubs, Aramis's OPS+ were all in the 126-139 range.  Adding a consistent ≥120 OPS+ guy to a lineup is pretty valuable. 

So I'm pretty interested in keeping Castellanos, myself.  He's 27, right in the same age group with Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber.  The longer the heart of the order is, the better.  I'd much rather commit $20/year to him than $20/year for a Hamels-level pitcher....
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 04:20:36 pm
Unless they change GM's I'm not sure it will.   I'd be willing to bet that Nico can put up similar offensive numbers to Merrified.  Nico is a high walk, low K guy who makes a ton of zone contact.  The kinda hitter that the Cubs haven't had and all he costs in the league minimum.  I don't think there is a lot for him to learn in the minors other than bad habits.

Will be interesting to see how Cubs handle Hoerner in 2020. If he doesn’t tail off appreciably next two weeks, that will be a factor. But, guessing a good chance to spend maybe a couple months at Iowa to open the season. If it’s close at all, service time will be a consideration.

Merrifield fits nicely WITH Hoerner. If Hoerner is at Iowa for a time, Merrifield fits at 2B. Thereafter, in RF/CF with Heyward. Could see Merrifield and Hoerner batting #1 and #2 and getting on base for the power guys.

Cubs have about $50 coming off the payroll—-mostly Hamels $20 and a bunch of relievers. But, with new arb guys, other arb increases, salary increases for other guys, and Kimbrel/Zobrist exchange, think about $40 of that goes to all this—-without anybody new coming in. And, gotta figure a veteran reliever or two come in or are re-signed.

Merrifield at a modest salary helps a lot, compared to a much bigger Castellanos price tag.

According to Roster Resource, Cubs in 2019 were $6 short of the third and HIGHEST luxury tax bracket. Hard to see how Cubs stay under in 2020. Cubs are outspending everybody or just about everybody. Every business has a budget. So, not a matter of “can afford” or can’t afford” but being realistic in your business. Fine with that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 04:37:02 pm

...The starting rotation is a more urgent need to be addressed.  The current rotation is rocking a 4.10/4.17/4.24 rotation and they are losing Hamels.  Adding somebody like Cole will make the team a lot more competitive. 

Cubs rotation is #6 in NL, so could be better.

But, if Darvish—now barely better on the season than Cubs 4.10 rotation ERA—is as good all season 2020 as he’s been lately, then Cubs would be perhaps #3 or so in rotation ERA.

In any case, guessing that Hamels $20 will be spent on other needs, with Chatwood/Graveman as the #5 guy and Alzolay in the wings. but, yeah, Cole would be quite a rotation upgrade.

Doubt that Cubs will give Hamels a QO. I believe that compensation for losing him (with a QO) would only be a pick after the 4th round because of Cubs 2019 luxury tax situation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 17, 2019, 04:39:41 pm
Signing Castellanos means you can trade Schwarber, whose good half-season may have reinvigorated some of his trade value.

I don't think the Cubs want a Schwarber-Heyward-Castellanos OF.  Heyward isn't going anywhere, so the math isn't hard.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 17, 2019, 04:41:09 pm
You still have to find a CFer though, and the market is pretty bare...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 17, 2019, 04:42:34 pm
Not to mention replace his 40 HRs and 90 RBI...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 17, 2019, 04:48:09 pm
You still have to find a CFer though, and the market is pretty bare...

A deal built around Schwarber and Merrifield seems like a potential fit.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 04:48:44 pm
Merrifield seems like a nice fit.  Club-controlled low-salary for 4 years, a good hitter, and positional flexibility 2B/Cf etc just at the spots we can use help.  I get the appeal.  But that low locked salary is evident to everybody else.  Do we want to clean out the entire farm system to get him?  Maybe yes.  But it might cost around that. 

Wanting somebody and having the resources to get him, not equivalent!  Having a good player locked in at low salary, that's kind of too good to be true, and anybody who's almost too good to be true might be prohibitively expensive for a bottom-of-the-league farm system. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 04:51:19 pm
A deal built around Schwarber and Merrifield seems like a potential fit.

Schwarber, Hoerner, and Marquez? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 17, 2019, 05:26:52 pm
Schwarber, Hoerner, and Marquez? 

Seriously? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 17, 2019, 05:46:34 pm
Seriously? 

I hope not!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 17, 2019, 06:00:08 pm
Thanks for your thoughtful post, Dave.  That is helpful, and somewhat reassuring.  The view that Theo has never traded an A prospect without have it be from surplus or a blocked position is somewhat relevant now.  Or, maybe; I'm not sure that any of our guys really would qualify as an A prospect, although for the moment I'm seeing Davis and Brailyn that way. 

But from the "surplus" perspective, the Cubs don't have surplus of anything.  It's hardly like the Cubs have so many long-term fixtures in the outfield that Davis won't have an opportunity.  Just as we don't have so many talented young pitchers under club-control that a young pitcher who's actually good will be blocked.  The window is wide open for pitchers. 

Craig - If we define "A" prospects as Bryant/Baez/Schwarber, I agree that we have none in the system.  But that doesn't mean that we are devoid of meaningful prospects.  I agree with you that Davis is one of the better ones, and just as important, he has the potential to fill a role for us that is not plentiful anywhere in the league.  Although I never believe that anyone is untouchable, I see no reason to trade him for anything other than a very valuable long term asset.  I don't know if you consider Hoerner to be a prospect any more, but I feel the same way about him, as I do Marquis.  I do not feel that he is anywhere near ready for the MLB, but I wouldn't include them in any trade that did not bring back a substantial long term return.  To a lesser extent, I would include Amaya, Roederer and Franklin.  And while there are several interesting prospects in low A ball, the return for someone that is that far away from the majors is usually very low, and generally not worth trading.

I don't understand the bad rap that this front office has gotten over procurement of prospects.  I don't think that many organizations have had more success in the past 5 years in securing young players than the Cubs have with Bryant, Schwarber, Torres, Baez, Contreras and Hendricks.  And even those that they felt no need to keep, such as Soler and Vogelbach are performing better than most players procured through the draft or IFA over the pervious 20 years.  And that doesn't even include young MLB players that have been brought in through trade, such as Arietta, Rizzo and Caratini.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 07:02:28 pm
According to Baseball Trade Values.com, Merrifield value is equivalent to Amaya-Happ-Bote, among other configurations.

As Royals want more than 100 cents on the dollar, figure one more guy of value.

Of course, who knows how Royals evaluate Cubs system.

Hoerner and Davis have to be off limits, seems to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 07:47:44 pm
Seriously? 

I have no idea how values work.  Part of Merrifield's value is that he's got a 4-year contract, basically like $24/4.  Schwarber has two years of control.  So Merrifield is a much more desirable player baseball-wise on a way cheaper contract with 4 years versus 2 years of control.  So superior value baseball-wise, with a way-superior value contract-wise.  Not close. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 17, 2019, 07:52:49 pm
Merrifield is also older so some of that bigger contract might be mitigated.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 17, 2019, 08:37:52 pm
Actually, Merrifield's deal is $14.5/3.  Super cheaper. 

The club also has 4th year of club control, $10.5 for 4th year if team wants it, with a $0.75 opt-out for year 4.  Unbelievably cheap and club-friendly. 

reb, I think your trade-calculator site is kinda loopy.  But if there are any real GM's who value Happ as much as your trade-value website calculator does, I hope Theo can find them and trade Happ to them.  I think some analytics are maybe a little bit crazy. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 17, 2019, 09:02:14 pm
Happ has to have value. Same with Schwarber.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 17, 2019, 09:12:07 pm
Whit Merrifield is not a good defensive OF. His only defensive asset in the OF is speed and it is taken away by his bad jumps.

Merrifield has been worth -2 DRS, -9 UZR/150 in the OF this year.  Schwarber has been -1 DRS, UZR/150 of -1.2.

Wiping out the farm system for him, when you have a cheaper clone in Hoerner doesn’t make any sense.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 17, 2019, 09:24:49 pm
This team is heading off a cliff in 2-3 years even if they trade for Merrifield and keep Castellanos.

They need to take a step back this offseason and try to make a few moves to avoid a complete rebuild in 2021. Treat 2020 like the Yankees treated 2016. Put a reasonably competitive team on the field, but also retool. Trade Quintana, Schwarber, and Kimbrel (if anyone wants him). Let Hamels and Castellanos walk. Eat half (or a little more) of Heyward's contract and get a prospect. And if it's definite that Bryant is leaving in two years, trade him too.

But also, go all in for Gerrit Cole and/or Anthony Rendon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 17, 2019, 09:33:32 pm
Whit Merrifield is not a good defensive OF. His only defensive asset in the OF is speed and it is taken away by his bad jumps.

Merrifield has been worth -2 DRS, -9 UZR/150 in the OF this year.  Schwarber has been -1 DRS, UZR/150 of -1.2.

Wiping out the farm system for him, when you have a cheaper clone in Hoerner doesn’t make any sense.


I thought you were the guy who always says look at more than one year defensive stats, no? Especially for a player playing part-time at the position.

Career Merrifield is +2 DRS in OF (and Schwarber is -11).

And, no, nobody is in favor of “wiping out the farm system” for Merrifield. That kind of hyperbole does not advance the discussion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on September 18, 2019, 07:23:40 am
I'm not getting the "trade Schwarber" thing. 

The guy may have turned the corner and be coming into his own (as one of MLB's best LH mashers) over the last several weeks...and he may not have; however, he has 37 bombs, 64 XBHs in less than 500 ABs and 90 RBIs, though he hit all over the lineup this year, including leadoff.  That production would NOT be easy to replace, particularly from the left side.  His departure would leave a MAJOR hole in our lineup next year.

And for those who say he, like Happ, can't hit the high fastball...well, were you watching last night against Sonny Gray's excellent high fastball??

Schwarber is also, by all accounts, a hard worker and an A+ clubhouse guy...and that does matter. 

Of course, if some team wants to overpay for him, that's different, but to determine in advance that he needs to go seems ridiculous to me....and, I suspect, to Theo.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on September 18, 2019, 07:37:48 am
As in most every other Cub season, the #1 issue we have at this point (and have had much of the year) is starting pitching (not that our relief pitching hasn't killed us at times, too)....seems like one of those years in which our team has been inconsistent in all phases at the exact wrong times...but I'd say inconsistent starting pitching has hurt us most of all.

In 2016, our starting pitching was almost ridiculously great for a team playing half its games at Wrigley.  This season, it's been inconsistent and, now, we have 3 SPs running on fumes.  NOT good! 

Somehow, the Brewers have been able to go on a massive win streak despite lacking relatively good starting pitching.  Hats off to Counsel and his guys (led by the ex-Royal World Champs) for being an extremely competitive group that seems to find a new way every day without good starters...however, that's an extremely unusual formula.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 18, 2019, 07:54:26 am
The Brewers are very impressive.  They just seem to rise to the challenge.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 18, 2019, 08:10:17 am
I'm also a fan of Schwarber.  He appears to have made some real adjustments at the plate.  He has been on fire since he was moved out of the leadoff spot in late July.  This is the hitter that Theo et al. thought he could be.  Defensively, he's perfectly fine for LF.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 18, 2019, 08:18:17 am
Add me to those who want no part of trading Schwarber. He is finally becoming the hitter we thought it he could be.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 18, 2019, 08:30:11 am
ben, the Brewers rely very heavily on their bullpen.  Last year their pen was awesome; this year it wasn't when they had some issues; recently it's been performing really well. 

You're right, Lester, Q, and Hamels are running on fumes and veteran guile.  They don't have much to work with, big overachievers to have been as anti-awful as they've been for as much of the season as they were antiawful, and at times downright good. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 18, 2019, 08:31:41 am
I'm not a fan of trading anyone.  I love these guys, BUT to balance this lineup and to make some changes, somebody will go.  And most of us will hate we lost our favorite player and we got crap for him, what are these jackasses thinking?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 18, 2019, 08:52:19 am
I'm okay with Heyward, Almora, Happ, Russell and Zobrist leaving. I'd be okay with Bryant and/or Contrerras being moved for the right package. Bryant, because there is no way he is resigning, and Willie because I think he is a pretty horrible catcher. Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez and Nico are untouchable. The Cubs have plenty of star power, what they need are the right fits to compliment the line-up. As I mentioned in the game thread, the Reds are much more patient than Cubs hitters. I want an offense that gets back to that. Quit helping the pitcher out when the pressure is on. For some reason the Cubs hitters are most anxious when the pitcher is in trouble. Their philosophy needs to change, or at least the personnel needs to change. I realize that Baez is a major problem in this area but I just don't think you can replace him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 18, 2019, 08:55:20 am
The Brewers are 10th in NL in runs scored and have given up more runs than all but 4 NL teams.  It's remarkable that their record is as good as it is.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on September 18, 2019, 09:49:55 am
I agree re Baez, Robb.  He's a unicorn in SO many areas and his whole is greater than the sum of the parts of his game, largely because of his tremendous swagger and on-field leadership!

I just don't see how Baez could be replaced and, no doubt, his loss - and that of our other GREAT field leader, Tony Rizzo - will hurt the Cubs A LOT the rest of the regular season, in my opinion!  I wish we had the starting pitching to overcome the absence of Baez and Rizzo over the next 11 games!

One super development this year has been the ability of our front office to pull relievers in off the scrap heap (e.g. Wick, Ryan and Wieck) and help them turn their careers around with the help of our improving pitching infrastructure! 

Theo et al have been very good in the past at identifying marginal starting pitchers and helping them turn it around, I'm sure hoping they can also work their magic on a couple of current Cub starters who will need to find something else to keep starting (e.g. Lester and Quintana) and someone to replace Hamels, assuming we don't win the Cole/Boras sweepstakes, which will get out of control, and Hamels won't sign on the cheap (and be willing to make significant changes, too).

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 18, 2019, 12:13:29 pm
Sahadev Sharma has yet another interesting analytical piece up, this on the Cubs success this year in converting fringe relievers into very good ones through their Pitch Lab.

https://theathletic.com/1220440/2019/09/18/weird-science-the-cubs-pitch-lab-is-turning-fringe-relievers-into-high-leverage-spin-rate-monsters/ (https://theathletic.com/1220440/2019/09/18/weird-science-the-cubs-pitch-lab-is-turning-fringe-relievers-into-high-leverage-spin-rate-monsters/)

For all the hand wringing about the weakness of the bullpen, Sharma points out the following:

The relievers have allowed just three runs in their last 25 1/3 innings. They lead all of baseball with a second-half bullpen ERA of 3.46 and they’re sixth overall on the year with a 3.89 ERA. The ERA has gone down to 2.32 in September.

That success comes with Pedro Strop being relegated to mop-up duty and Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek and Craig Kimbrel combining to throw just 7 2/3 innings thus far in September. And they’ve given up seven runs.

So how have the Cubs done it? There are some unexpected names delivering in big ways. And while relievers are generally considered the most volatile group from year-to-year in baseball, this success isn’t completely random.


Sharma also hints at further changes in their pitching development program.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: jacey1 on September 18, 2019, 12:23:05 pm
Any trade for Merrifield is going to have to involve Nico, I'm afraid. I hate to move him, but you have to give up something to get something of value. Nico, Amaya, Marquez/Alzolay should all be in play. I would rather not lose Marquez, but what do we have to offer?

Moving  Schwarber in a separate deal for some type of young pitcher with potential??? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 18, 2019, 01:43:40 pm
Any trade for Merrifield is going to have to involve Nico, I'm afraid. I hate to move him, but you have to give up something to get something of value...

None of us on the outside can know who is a necessary piece in a trade. There are different ways to structure trades.

Would not give up Hoerner to get Merrifield—that is giving up way too much future value and age. A non-starter in any talks.

Would be willing to deal Amaya because Cubs have other catching. Amaya has a lot of trade value.

And Happ has more trade value than folks may think. Bote is a useful player too. For me, this is about 90% of what Cubs can give up to get Merrifield.

Merrifield is a good player who fits here, but is not a star. Not advocating doing much more than above. If not enough, then walk away.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 18, 2019, 02:48:28 pm
Q's deal is not guaranteed.  He's got a $10.5 deal with a $1 buyout.  I assume they'll choose to keep him.  He's been an average pitcher overall this season, and I assume they'll have either an unreported health-based explanation or else a mechanical explanation for why he's been bad lately, so will have hoped for next year that he will not regress further, and may improve variably. 

I see 4 rotation options:
1.  Spend big-ticket, to give you a shot at 3 good starters (Yu, Hendricks, big-ticket) + 2 crafty-vets (Q + Lester). 
        Pros:  If big-ticket is good, could have a good, perhaps very good, rotation. 
        Cons:  Big ticket might leave limited budget space for lineup and bullpen.  And I don't know if there are any big-tickets that are available. 
2.  Sign a modest-ticket, and settle for a limited rotation.  Yu and Hendricks give shot for 2 good starters; then hopefully modest-ticket/Q/Lester can be variably average and do OK on the anti-awful scale.
        Pros:  Could have a decent/good-rotation, and modest-ticket wouldn't kill the budget.  Can apply budget to pen and lineup. 
        Cons:  The rotation may be pretty limited.  Can shoot for 90 wins if lineup and pen excel, but not going to win 100 with a rotation like that. 
3.  Cheap:  Let 5th starter be an open spot.  Chatwood, Graveman, Mills, Alzolay, Graveman.  Or maybe add a cheap ticket (Feldman, Maholm type....)
        Pros:  Could have a decent/good-rotation if open-spot guy turns out fine.  But can apply budget to pen and lineup, so you don't need great rotation to win 95 games.   
        Cons:  Could have a bad rotation.
4.  Spend big-ticket; release Q; 5th-starter open.
        Pros:  If big-ticket is good, could have a really good rotation.  Big-ticket - Q won't kill the budget (for this year, at least).  So can also apply budget to pen and lineup. 
        Cons:  Big-ticket-Q may still reduce the resources to help the pen and lineup.  Plus if big-ticket isn't actually that good, or if open-spot starter ends up terrible, rotation may still end up being not all that great. 

But I admit I kinda like the Big-Ticket-minus-Q option. 

I also kind of like the notion of keeping one spot open this year and inexpensive.  Chatwood's been better than Q for a while lately; maybe you're upgrading?  Maybe Graveman will be just as average or more average than Q?  Maybe by July Abbott will step in and be a long-term #3-caliber guy who's as good or better than Q for free?  I'm hoping that with some pitching prospects starting to exist in the system, that we could start to be able to fill rotation spots internally.  If you replaced Q's salary with an internal guy this year; then Lester with an internal young guy the following year, perhaps Hendricks + Yu + Big Ticket will be fine budget-wise? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 18, 2019, 02:59:39 pm
..Would not give up Hoerner to get Merrifield—that is giving up way too much future value and age. A non-starter in any talks.

Would be willing to deal Amaya ...And Happ .... Bote is a useful player too. For me, this is about 90% of what Cubs can give up to get Merrifield.

Merrifield is a good player who fits here, but is not a star. Not advocating doing much more than above. If not enough, then walk away.

I'm certainly one who thinks Happ doesn't really have much trade value.  So, hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. 

If you can get Merrifield for Amaya, with Happ and Bote added in as who-cares throwaway, by all means let it rip.  I don't think that will be the best offer that they get, so I don't think that gets it done at all.  Thus I assume Theo will walk away when he sees the actual pricetag. 

But yeah, if we could basically replace Bote and Happ with Merrifield and Bote, that could help the lineup improve.   If the price for that is Amaya, I'm good with that.  But I'd expect to need to walk away from the actual price. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 18, 2019, 03:44:39 pm
Should we assume that Colin Rea is not an option for 2020?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 18, 2019, 04:19:34 pm
I'm certainly one who thinks Happ doesn't really have much trade value.  So, hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. 


A vain hope.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 18, 2019, 07:14:38 pm
What do we think are reasonable estimates for our 2020 arb eligibles?

Schwarber, Kyle $7.5
Bryant, Kris $20.0
Baez, Javier $14.0
Contreras, Willson $4.0
Almora, Albert $1.0
Ryan, Kyle $1.4

I presume Russell will be traded or non-tendered.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 18, 2019, 07:27:59 pm
Wishful thinking on Russell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 18, 2019, 07:43:07 pm
Thanks, Jeff, those sound thoughtful.  Helpful to see your guesstimates. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 18, 2019, 08:49:00 pm
Has Theo Epstein jumped the shark?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 18, 2019, 09:33:06 pm
That depends upon what you mean by that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 18, 2019, 09:58:00 pm
I have been told that keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen. Surprisingly he isn’t seeking $30M per year (or even $25M) but he is still seeking more than the Cubs are willing to pay.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 18, 2019, 10:06:43 pm
That's disappointing if true.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 18, 2019, 11:02:45 pm
I have been told that keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen. Surprisingly he isn’t seeking $30M per year (or even $25M) but he is still seeking more than the Cubs are willing to pay.

So, you’re saying that (a) Cubs don’t want to compete in the market for Castellanos or (b) Cubs not willing to pay his current asking price?

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 18, 2019, 11:18:41 pm
Seeing what we can get for Happ, Almora and Russell and firing the manager isn't going to cut it - this roster needs major, OS-level changes.  Someone of consequence has to be traded (and maybe not just one).  Taking Bryant, Contreras and now Schwarber off the table?  Hard to see how that works.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 19, 2019, 12:17:38 am
I just hope they don't use the Baez and Rizzo injuries as an excuse for why this team failed. This team failed long before they got hurt. But I could see them blaming injuries and bringing back this same dysfunctional roster again next year.

They've disappointed three years in a row, they've waited at least a year too long to make real changes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 19, 2019, 07:50:03 am
Can the last person around turn out the lights when you leave?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 19, 2019, 09:06:29 am
So, you’re saying that (a) Cubs don’t want to compete in the market for Castellanos or (b) Cubs not willing to pay his current asking price?

I’m of the understanding that numbers have been exchanged and the Cubs aren’t willing to hit those numbers. For what it is worth I was told Castellanos is seeking a 4 year deal to allow him to have another big pay day after his age 31 season. 

He is not currently looking for $30M (not really even close to it)  as someone mentioned being rumored.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on September 19, 2019, 09:29:28 am
if his price from Detroit has come down that much... sign him now... why wait.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 19, 2019, 10:40:05 am
If he's asking for a 4 year deal, he's probably not going to get it. Only three hitters got at least 4 years on the free agent market last year, and two of those were Harper and Machado. The other was AJ Pollock who had always been a much more well-rounded player than Castellanos. He only got $15 million a year (lower AAV than McCutchen and Brantley), which means he probably sacrificed a little AAV to get more security (with his injury history, that's probably a good idea).

The league just doesn't pay one dimensional hitters anymore. Even if Castellanos is "only" looking for something like 4 years, $75 million, he's at least a year $30 million too high.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 19, 2019, 12:05:21 pm
If he's asking for a 4 year deal, he's probably not going to get it. Only three hitters got at least 4 years on the free agent market last year, and two of those were Harper and Machado. The other was AJ Pollock who had always been a much more well-rounded player than Castellanos. He only got $15 million a year (lower AAV than McCutchen and Brantley), which means he probably sacrificed a little AAV to get more security (with his injury history, that's probably a good idea).

The league just doesn't pay one dimensional hitters anymore. Even if Castellanos is "only" looking for something like 4 years, $75 million, he's at least a year $30 million too high.

You aren't far off.  4/$80
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 19, 2019, 12:27:05 pm
So, you’re saying that (a) Cubs don’t want to compete in the market for Castellanos or (b) Cubs not willing to pay his current asking price?

Agree with the question.  We're not interested at his asking price, but might be once the market brings it down?  Or we're just not interested in a fair-price market-price for him? 

What other bats are their going to be on the market, that might fit? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 01:12:33 pm
Agree with the question.  We're not interested at his asking price, but might be once the market brings it down?  Or we're just not interested in a fair-price market-price for him? 


I asked the question because if the Cubs were willing to meet Castellanos current asking price, he’d be re-signed already, no?

The original post said “told that keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen.” But, that conclusion doesn’t follow just because Cubs aren’t willing to meet his current asking price. 

As BR noted in his post, nobody like Castellanos has been getting their asking price lately—corner guys with defensive deficiencies.

So, if the lead is “Keeping Castellanos Isn’t Going To Happen” then something was lost in translation from the source or by you.

Indeed, if there’s a story here, it’s that “numbers have been exchanged.” That would mean: Cubs Interested In Resigning Castellanos.

Getting the lead correct based on the facts is what journalists do.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 19, 2019, 02:20:54 pm
I forget the numbers, but didn't Zobrist sign for about 22 million AAV?  Whatever the numbers, Castellanos will not get nearly what Zobrist got, and he shouldn't.  Zobrist was as good offensively, and far, far better defensively.

But Reb and Craig are right, of course.  If his asking price comes down far enough, the Cubs would be willing to sign him.  I assume that if he asked one year at 5 million dollars, they would jump at it.  But that isn't going to happen in the current environment.  My uneducated guess is that with his current agent, he will hold out for something near 4-20 at least until well into spring training.  I suppose things could change that would cause the Cubs to take that, but I think he would have to come down ot 3 - 15 before they would become really interested.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 19, 2019, 02:55:56 pm
Dave, Zobrist got only $14 per ($56/4).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 03:30:22 pm
That the current club unwilling in September to meet asking price of a pending free agent is not the kind of story that ordinarily would make headlines or be surprising in the least.

It’s an opening salvo. Even JD Martinez, after a monster season in 2017, waited until late February to sign and then didn’t get his asking price.

Whether Cubs will sign Castellanos seems very much an open question.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 19, 2019, 03:42:36 pm
Dave, Zobrist got only $14 per ($56/4).

Thanks, Jeff.  I doubt that Castellanos will get much more than that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 19, 2019, 04:27:33 pm
Kimbrel activated, Baez could pinch-run, Hamel to miss a start (Mills) with "shoulder fatigue".
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 19, 2019, 04:27:37 pm
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Cole Hamels being skipped due to left shoulder fatigue. Been dealing with it for several weeks. Next start TBD.

Mills Friday, Quintana Saturday, Darvish Sunday.


The Cubs' medical team really isn't giving me much confidence in their ability to manage injuries. Hamels has been dealing with shoulder fatigue for weeks and they still sent him out there to get pounded in just about every start? Pretty unbelievable.

And this comes on the heels of Bryant playing with a sore knee for 6 weeks. Then they sat him down for 3 days and gave him a cortisone shot, and he was back to normal. Did they not learn from last year that they need to sit him down for a few days when he's hurt rather than letting him still go out there for a month and hit like the 2019 version of Zobrist?

Strop is another case--it seem like he came off the IL too quickly based on his first injury this year, and he has never been the same.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 19, 2019, 04:43:20 pm
Just a thought the medical team is only going to now about something if the player mentions it. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 19, 2019, 04:52:11 pm
I thought you were the guy who always says look at more than one year defensive stats, no? Especially for a player playing part-time at the position.
Career Merrifield is +2 DRS in OF (and Schwarber is -11).

Merrifield had like 5 DRS in 134 innings in LF in 2016/2017.  Without those he is -3 1000 innings in the OF.  Schwarber has been +1 the last 2 years, with UZR/150 of 14 and 0.5.  Merrifield has a career UZR/150 -4.4, he is in the 16th percentile for OF jump on baseball savant, Schwarber is better at a still horrible 28th percentile. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 19, 2019, 04:53:53 pm
Sahadev Sharma has yet another interesting analytical piece up, this on the Cubs success this year in converting fringe relievers into very good ones through their Pitch Lab.

https://theathletic.com/1220440/2019/09/18/weird-science-the-cubs-pitch-lab-is-turning-fringe-relievers-into-high-leverage-spin-rate-monsters/ (https://theathletic.com/1220440/2019/09/18/weird-science-the-cubs-pitch-lab-is-turning-fringe-relievers-into-high-leverage-spin-rate-monsters/)
Sharma also hints at further changes in their pitching development program.

Big fan of this possible move, but I don't think he would be giving up his day job.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 05:17:39 pm
Merrifield had like 5 DRS in 134 innings in LF in 2016/2017.  Without those he is -3 1000 innings in the OF.  Schwarber has been +1 the last 2 years, with UZR/150 of 14 and 0.5.  Merrifield has a career UZR/150 -4.4, he is in the 16th percentile for OF jump on baseball savant, Schwarber is better at a still horrible 28th percentile. 

You are cherry picking stats about Merrifield—removing his LF stats.

But, since you are cherry picking, let me do so too. As a CFer in 2018/2019, Merrifield is +3 DRS.....and in more innings than in LF career.  Slightly above average CFer.

I think that works for the Cubs, no?

Keep Heyward in RF and Merrifield in CF (and 2B).

And strongly suggest that you don’t rely on UZR/150 for Schwarber.

That is, unless you believe that Schwarber is a better defender than Almora!!

Because that’s what UZR/150 tells you:  Schwarber  6.8 and Almora  2.1. Kind of absurd, no?

On other hand. Defensive runs saved: Schwarber -11 and Almora +6

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 19, 2019, 05:53:14 pm
1.  I think comping Castellanos, who is a very good hitter at age 27, versus Zobrist, who was 35 when we signed him, is a somewhat inappropriate comp.  I want the 27-year-old a lot more. 

The situation of need is also different; coming off the 2015 season, the second-half Cubs looked like they might be a great team offensively moving forward.  The 2019 Cubs look like they might be very challenged offensively going forward.  The need is more acute now. 

I'm not saying they have to have Castellanos; but adding a solidly good professional hitter like Castellanos to the middle of the lineup all year could really help. 

2.  reb, I agree that not being interested at present price doesn't necessarily mean they won't be interested when his price conforms to market.  But it's also possible that management already knows they won't be interested in the market price.  They may have already decided to apply finite budget in other directions. 



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 06:11:55 pm

.. reb, I agree that not being interested at present price doesn't necessarily mean they won't be interested when his price conforms to market.  But it's also possible that management already knows they won't be interested in the market price.  They may have already decided to apply finite budget in other directions. 

Yes, that’s very possible. Indeed, that’s my own expectation.

But, i’m trying to grasp exactly what Chgojhawk is actually saying here.

First, said that “keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen.” That sounds like maybe what we’re discussing now.

But, then said “numbers have been exchanged and the Cubs aren’t willing to hit those numbers,” which seems very different.

So, I’m confused.

This is one reason I’m not crazy about informal, non-journalist reports. I know folks here like them but a lot gets lost in translation and you end up with confusion or even misinformation, notwithstanding everybody’s good intentions.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 19, 2019, 07:18:09 pm
I don't understand the confusion. 

“numbers have been exchanged and the Cubs aren’t willing to hit those numbers,” is a statement of a past event and current assessment.

“keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen.”  is a prediction of future expectations, based upon the current situation.

If the numbers exchanged are extremely far apart, it would be quite reasonable that the Cubs, as Craig says, "may have already decided to apply finite budget in other directions."

In this situation, most people would expect, and probably say, that "it isn't going to happen", even while knowing that since the future is by definition unknowable, there is always a tiny chance of a change of direction.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 19, 2019, 07:21:02 pm
Isn't it possible that Castellanos wants to re-sign with the Cubs, but wants to let the free agent process proceed to see if another team blows him away with an offer?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 07:34:55 pm
I don't understand the confusion. 

“numbers have been exchanged and the Cubs aren’t willing to hit those numbers,” is a statement of a past event and current assessment.

“keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen.”  is a prediction of future expectations, based upon the current situation.

If the numbers exchanged are extremely far apart, it would be quite reasonable that the Cubs, as Craig says, "may have already decided to apply finite budget in other directions."

In this situation, most people would expect, and probably say, that "it isn't going to happen", even while knowing that since the future is by definition unknowable, there is always a tiny chance of a change of direction.

If that’s the case, it’s a complete non-story.

The future is unknowable? No kidding. And, in September, there’s no meeting of the minds. No kidding.

If Cubs have decided not to meet Castellanos eventual market price, as Craig posited, that’s a story.

But, Chicjhawk has yet to say that. That’s what I’m asking.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 19, 2019, 08:16:30 pm
The future IS unknowable, but the future DOES have probabilities that may be assessed based upon current facts.  And people DO make decisions about the future based upon their assessment of current probabilities, and act accordingly 

If they tell someone of these decisions, most do not bother to add the obvious proviso that they might change their mind if the situation changes.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 19, 2019, 09:21:18 pm
Yes, Dave, but the “current facts” are ONLY that the parties exchanged proposals that are currently unacceptable. That’s it.

Everything else that you are saying is a gloss on the above, filling in possible scenarios without any facts, and is speculative regarding what the Cubs may or may not have decided.

What facts, if any, is “keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen” actually based on? That’s what I want to know.

We know the parties have not reached an agreement. That’s a non-story. What facts support the assertion in the previous paragraph? If there are none, then what is the story?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on September 19, 2019, 10:13:42 pm
It's not a story, it's a post.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 19, 2019, 10:43:31 pm
Two years in a row, the Cubs have had a chance to bury the Brewers in early September. Two years in a row, they've failed and let them back in the race. Two years in a row, they're going to be sitting at home in October.

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
On Sept. 5, the Brewers lost to the Cubs and dropped to 71-68. That day, the Cubs were 76-63.

Since then, the Cubs are 6-8. The Brewers: 12-2.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 20, 2019, 02:40:37 am
You're the most miserable Cub fan Ive ever met in my life.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 20, 2019, 08:10:29 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoQZ0qmf-mk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 20, 2019, 08:52:11 am
Tough loss last night, but baseball is a funny game.  I don't think it's time to give up.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 20, 2019, 02:53:33 pm
Yes, Dave, but the “current facts” are ONLY that the parties exchanged proposals that are currently unacceptable. That’s it.

Everything else that you are saying is a gloss on the above, filling in possible scenarios without any facts, and is speculative regarding what the Cubs may or may not have decided.

What facts, if any, is “keeping Castellanos isn’t going to happen” actually based on? That’s what I want to know.

We know the parties have not reached an agreement. That’s a non-story. What facts support the assertion in the previous paragraph? If there are none, then what is the story?

Obviously, no matter who was the source of the comment, even if it were Epstein himself, it was an opinion only, since even Epstein can not predict the future.  Any rational reader would understand that, and it does not require qualification or elucidation by the writer.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 20, 2019, 06:13:52 pm
Phil Rogers take: Cubs lost this year because they decided to play a star who is one of the most likeable players in baseball over a mediocre baseball player who is also a domestic abuser.

Phil Rogers @philgrogers
Date the @Cubs’ downfall to the day Addison Russell went on administrative leave and Javy Baez moved to SS. They’ve been a shell of what they were 2015-late ‘18. Really weird how little it can take to tip the scales.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 20, 2019, 06:20:57 pm
Phil understands that these players know the struggles of being millionaire ballplayers and dont give a damn about what a jaded lover says.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 20, 2019, 06:46:10 pm
Phil Rogers take: Cubs lost this year because they decided to play a star who is one of the most likeable players in baseball over a mediocre baseball player who is also a domestic abuser.

Phil Rogers @philgrogers
Date the @Cubs’ downfall to the day Addison Russell went on administrative leave and Javy Baez moved to SS. They’ve been a shell of what they were 2015-late ‘18. Really weird how little it can take to tip the scales.


Typically superior analysis from Phil Rogers (purple).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 20, 2019, 06:47:47 pm
I don't normally go there, but, I have to concede that I do believe ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8BGHt18JTI
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 20, 2019, 06:52:57 pm
1.5 behind the Yelich-absent Brewers, and there are 9 days left.  I'd not write off the post-season yet. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 20, 2019, 07:28:42 pm
Phil Rogers take: Cubs lost this year because they decided to play a star who is one of the most likeable players in baseball over a mediocre baseball player who is also a domestic abuser.

Phil Rogers @philgrogers
Date the @Cubs’ downfall to the day Addison Russell went on administrative leave and Javy Baez moved to SS. They’ve been a shell of what they were 2015-late ‘18. Really weird how little it can take to tip the scales.


Not to mention (as I've been arguing for years, to much ridicule from certain quarters) Baez always had the tools to be a superior defender to Russell at SS and just needed reps to prove it.  He just got there faster than even I expected.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 20, 2019, 07:46:53 pm
1.5 behind the Yelich-absent Brewers, and there are 9 days left.  I'd not write off the post-season yet.

Brewers are 7-2 since losing Yelich and well on their way to 8-2 tonight. They have the Pirates, Rockies, and Reds. The Cubs have five more with St. Louis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 20, 2019, 08:46:21 pm
Is it time to fire Theo?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 20, 2019, 09:10:19 pm
I see a lot of folks assuming Ross will be the manager next season, but I'm not so sure.  Hiring him with no coaching experience would be a very un-Theo move.  I haven't counted Girardi out (I don't think he would have sat out the market hoping to be considered unless back channels told him it wasn't impossible) but John Farrell is a dark horse candidate.  He and Theo have a history and he only turned down the bench coach job because he didn't want to be seen as the guy waiting for the axe to fall on Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 20, 2019, 09:24:59 pm
It would be so like the losingest team in sports history to fire the manager that broke a 108 year drought 3 years later.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 20, 2019, 09:41:32 pm
I see a lot of folks assuming Ross will be the manager next season, but I'm not so sure.  Hiring him with no coaching experience would be a very un-Theo move.  I haven't counted Girardi out (I don't think he would have sat out the market hoping to be considered unless back channels told him it wasn't impossible) but John Farrell is a dark horse candidate.  He and Theo have a history and he only turned down the bench coach job because he didn't want to be seen as the guy waiting for the axe to fall on Maddon.

I have never understood the notion that Theo would hire Joe Girardi to manage the Cubs. I see nothing about Girardi that would appeal to Theo. I'd be shocked if that happened.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dihard on September 20, 2019, 10:46:21 pm
1.5 behind the Yelich-absent Brewers, and there are 9 days left.  I'd not write off the post-season yet.
Fwiw, ESPN had our chances at 59% two days ago, and they are now at 27%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 21, 2019, 09:45:06 am
Fwiw, ESPN had our chances at 59% two days ago, and they are now at 27%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, you are saying we have a chance.   ;D
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 21, 2019, 09:55:06 am
So, you are saying we have a chance.   ;D
Can we switch the last three games in St. Louis to three more with Pittsburgh?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 21, 2019, 08:49:57 pm


But, since you are cherry picking, let me do so too. As a CFer in 2018/2019, Merrifield is +3 DRS.....and in more innings than in LF career.  Slightly above average CFer.

I think that works for the Cubs, no?

Keep Heyward in RF and Merrifield in CF (and 2B).

And strongly suggest that you don’t rely on UZR/150 for Schwarber.

That is, unless you believe that Schwarber is a better defender than Almora!!

Because that’s what UZR/150 tells you:  Schwarber  6.8 and Almora  2.1. Kind of absurd, no?

On other hand. Defensive runs saved: Schwarber -11 and Almora +6



The Royals have played Merrifield 616 innings in the OF this year. 458 of those innings came in RF. The Royals have played such amazing CF like Brett Phillips, Billy Hamilton and Bubba Starling in CF more often. If Merrifield was an above average OF Soler in RF and Merrifield in CF would seem to be a better alignment, no?  Yet the Royals ran out a bunch of horrible guys. Look at the whole picture. Merrifield has a below average arm and get horrible jumps and routes on the ball. If you trade for him it is to be the second baseman and I’d take my chances with Hoerner.

Fix the GD pitching and the offense will be fine.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: otto105 on September 21, 2019, 09:24:09 pm
I hope the Cubs don't tank those three games in St. Louis.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 21, 2019, 11:16:26 pm

The Royals have played Merrifield 616 innings in the OF this year. 458 of those innings came in RF. The Royals have played such amazing CF like Brett Phillips, Billy Hamilton and Bubba Starling in CF more often. If Merrifield was an above average OF Soler in RF and Merrifield in CF would seem to be a better alignment, no?  Yet the Royals ran out a bunch of horrible guys. Look at the whole picture. Merrifield has a below average arm and get horrible jumps and routes on the ball. If you trade for him it is to be the second baseman and I’d take my chances with Hoerner.

Fix the GD pitching and the offense will be fine.

Kind of obvious that when Billy Hamilton starts, he’s going to be in CF.  And, also evident that Soler is basically a DH, so that’s why Merrifield RF/Soler DH made sense. And, also obvious that Royals needed Merrifield at 2B quite a bit, as the 2B alternative to Merrifield is Nicky Lopez with a 48 OPS+. So, can’t agree that the CF mix in KC says much of anything about Merrifield one way or the other.

You were probably correct back in June when you said that Merrifield was an “average” OFer. Now you say he’s horrible and below average. Perhaps you’ve been watching a lot of Royals games since June to have that big change of heart but the 2018/2019 defensive metrics say he’s been pretty good in CF. Otherwise, not seeing any evidence to support your comments.

If Cubs got Merrifield, I think he’d probably move around the field a lot, like in KC. That’s one of his strengths. Offensively, leadoff has been a disaster for the Cubs in 2019. Merrifield would likely fix that. He’s a fit.

I can see the argument for bringing in a big-time SP in 2020–to get back to a Cubs 2016-type rotation that was the foundation of that club, although the role of bullpens (and starters) has changed since then around baseball—-still important. Great if Cubs can do that, perhaps in free agency, but probably a budget-buster if go after Cole as you suggested previously. I would be for that if budget is available.

But, Merrifield has club friendly contract. That helps.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 22, 2019, 12:04:01 pm
Are there any top level pitcher free agents other than Gerrit Cole this winter (If he is still a free agent)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 22, 2019, 12:10:26 pm
Jason Vargas.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 22, 2019, 01:04:49 pm
Strasburg has an opt out he might take.

After that, there's Wheeler, Bumgarner, and Keuchel are probably the best starters.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2019, 01:40:33 pm
Kind of obvious that when Billy Hamilton starts, he’s going to be in CF.  And, also evident that Soler is basically a DH, so that’s why Merrifield RF/Soler DH made sense. And, also obvious that Royals needed Merrifield at 2B quite a bit, as the 2B alternative to Merrifield is Nicky Lopez with a 48 OPS+. So, can’t agree that the CF mix in KC says much of anything about Merrifield one way or the other.

You were probably correct back in June when you said that Merrifield was an “average” OFer. Now you say he’s horrible and below average. Perhaps you’ve been watching a lot of Royals games since June to have that big change of heart but the 2018/2019 defensive metrics say he’s been pretty good in CF. Otherwise, not seeing any evidence to support your comments.

If Cubs got Merrifield, I think he’d probably move around the field a lot, like in KC. That’s one of his strengths. Offensively, leadoff has been a disaster for the Cubs in 2019. Merrifield would likely fix that. He’s a fit.

I can see the argument for bringing in a big-time SP in 2020–to get back to a Cubs 2016-type rotation that was the foundation of that club, although the role of bullpens (and starters) has changed since then around baseball—-still important. Great if Cubs can do that, perhaps in free agency, but probably a budget-buster if go after Cole as you suggested previously. I would be for that if budget is available.

But, Merrifield has club friendly contract. That helps.



Merrifield and Soler have a near equal amount of innings in RF, so Soler isn’t just playing DH. The Royals outside of Merrifield are rocking a wRC+ 47 in CF.

Merrifield’s spilt time almost equally between 2B and OF. If they really thought he was good in CF they would have put him there.

Cole at the top end would cost $30 million in AAV. The only pitchers that have gotten above $30 million by much in annual salary are Strausberg and Scherzer who have a ton of that money deferred. Declining the option on Morrow, Duensing and not resigning Hamels gets you to about $31 million in salary. The money is there, it just needs to be deployed correctly.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 22, 2019, 01:51:37 pm
Is that 31 million over and above the increases they will have through arbitration for Baez and Bryant, as well as some others?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 22, 2019, 02:14:20 pm
....Declining the option on Morrow, Duensing and not resigning Hamels gets you to about $31 million in salary. The money is there, it just needs to be deployed correctly.

Add $10 by declining Quintana's option. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2019, 02:53:13 pm
If you do the math, arb increases—including newly minted arb guys—eat up about 80% of the contracts coming off the books, including non-Morrow relievers (Strop, Cishek, Kintzler).

I’m not counting Quintana as money saved. Think it’s unlikely the Q option is declined.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 22, 2019, 03:04:26 pm
Merrifield and Soler have a near equal amount of innings in RF, so Soler isn’t just playing DH. The Royals outside of Merrifield are rocking a wRC+ 47 in CF.

Merrifield’s spilt time almost equally between 2B and OF. If they really thought he was good in CF they would have put him there.

Royals need Merrifield quite a bit at 2B. That’s why he plays there a lot—because the 2B alternatives to him are bad.

And, Merrifield is a 2B/OF. That’s why he plays all over. He has the skills to do that—and would too with Cubs

That is a good and valuable component—not the weakness you insist on arguing, without supporting evidence. You were probably right back in June when said Merrifield is an average OFer. And, data over 2018/2019 for CF say even better than average. Again, why the change of heart on that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 22, 2019, 03:05:11 pm
I agree.  Quintana is not a star, and I was unhappy with the trade because of what they gave up, but I doubt very much if they will get a better pitcher than him for 10 million dollars.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 22, 2019, 03:43:09 pm
An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

LF - Kyle Schwarber (eligible for arbitration) -  $7,500,000/$7,500,000
CF - Ian Happ (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RF - Jason Heyward (under contract) - $21,000,000/$23,000,000
3B - Kris Bryant (eligible for arbitration) - $20,000,000/$20,000,000
SS - Javier Baez (eligible for arbitration) - $14,000,000/$14,000,000
2B - Nico Hoerner (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
1B - Anthony Rizzo (club option) - $16,500,000/$16,500,000
C - Willson Contreras (eligible for arbitration) - $4,000,000/$4,000,000
OF - Albert Almora (eligible for arbitration) - $1,000,000/$1,000,000
IF - David Bote (under contract) - $950,000/$3,000,000
UT - Tony Kemp (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
C - Victor Caratini (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
SP - Jon Lester (under contract) - $15,000,000/$25,833,333
SP - Yu Darvish (under contract) - $22,000,000/$21,000,000
SP - Kyle Hendricks (under contract) - $12,000,000/$13,875,000
SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000
RP - Brad Wieck or Danny Hultzen (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Kyle Ryan (eligible for arbitration) - $1,400,000/$1,400,000
RP - Tyler Chatwood (under contract) - $13,000,000/$12,666,667
RP - Alec Mills (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Rowan Wick (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333
Players on optional assignment (15 @ $150,000 each) - $2,250,000/$2,250,000
B&B - $15,000,000/$15,000,000

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333

The first salary number listed is the 2020 outlay.  The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248.

Obviously some of the names listed above will be replaced by salaried veterans.

Enjoy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 22, 2019, 04:55:53 pm
An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

LF - Kyle Schwarber (eligible for arbitration) -  $7,500,000/$7,500,000
CF - Ian Happ (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RF - Jason Heyward (under contract) - $21,000,000/$23,000,000
3B - Kris Bryant (eligible for arbitration) - $20,000,000/$20,000,000
SS - Javier Baez (eligible for arbitration) - $14,000,000/$14,000,000
2B - Nico Hoerner (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
1B - Anthony Rizzo (club option) - $16,500,000/$16,500,000
C - Willson Contreras (eligible for arbitration) - $4,000,000/$4,000,000
OF - Albert Almora (eligible for arbitration) - $1,000,000/$1,000,000
IF - David Bote (under contract) - $950,000/$3,000,000
UT - Tony Kemp (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
C - Victor Caratini (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
SP - Jon Lester (under contract) - $15,000,000/$25,833,333
SP - Yu Darvish (under contract) - $22,000,000/$21,000,000
SP - Kyle Hendricks (under contract) - $12,000,000/$13,875,000
SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000
RP - Brad Wieck or Danny Hultzen (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Kyle Ryan (eligible for arbitration) - $1,400,000/$1,400,000
RP - Tyler Chatwood (under contract) - $13,000,000/$12,666,667
RP - Alec Mills (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Rowan Wick (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333
Players on optional assignment (15 @ $150,000 each) - $2,250,000/$2,250,000
B&B - $15,000,000/$15,000,000

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333

The first salary number listed is the 2020 outlay.  The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248.

Obviously some of the names listed above will be replaced by salaried veterans.

Enjoy.

Contract Budget Payroll Luxury Tax Projected Salaries estimate by JeffH Jeff H Craig. 

(I'm copying this and trying to put some keywords into it so I, and perhaps others, can find it more easily future!  :):):)

Thanks much, Jeff. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 22, 2019, 05:16:56 pm
A couple of things occur to me:

Some of us said at the AS Break, that was the time to replace Joe.  Looking back, we couldn't have ended any worse.

The other day some writer opined that keeping Russell sunk the Cubs and Cubs' morale.  What a reach.  When Russell was in Iowa the Cubs didn't play any better, and he didn't play this last weekend.  I blame it on Bryant's ankle injury today.  'Bout as likely.  If we blame anyone, including Joe, alone, it's a huge mistake.

The lift we got from Castellanos and Zobrist arrivals should be indicators of a leaderless team most of whom cannot put the bat on the ball in crucial situations.  Heck, even little Kemp proved to be a better clutch hitter.

If Theo doesn't act, nobody will trust anything he says again.

The Padres fired their manager early to get a jump on the Giants, the Cubs, the Phillies and anyone else looking to make a change.  Smart.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 22, 2019, 06:06:49 pm
An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000P - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) -
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333   .....The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248....

So at $219, with theoretical limit at $248. 

That's $29 to spend, given the lux + $40 hypothetical.

Note:  even that's maybe higher than their hypothetical...  they've usually wanted to save some space for some mid-season salary pickup.  So, would like to save $5 or whatever for that? 

Couple thoughts: 
1.  Kimbrel at $14 looks somewhat regrettable.  But that's kind of the consequence of spend ahead and going ultra-Nowacrat while the window seemed to perhaps be open. 
2.  Much complaint about "sitting out" this past offseason.  But that was the result of outspending their previous winter allocation.  By going all-in for 2018, and signing all three of Morrow, Chatwood, and Darvish, they basically took that from the 2019 budget to do that.   Basically the unexpected Darvish signing two winters back used moneys that could have been available last winter.  Regrettable?  I'm not thinking so.  Unwise?   I'm not thinking so.  They knew Lester and Quintana were getting further worn; so they went all in for 2018.  And then spent $20 on Hamels. 
3.  But if some see this winter as too much "sitting out" and being too passive, just remember to count the aggressive Kimbrel signing as one of this winter's big pickups.  Passive?  No way, if anything overly aggressive. 
4.  So, if there's <$29 to spend....  You can do some things with that.  But I would strong suggest making it $39 or $44 or $47 to spend. 
5.  Lets say we've got ≤$47 to spend on the existing club:  Is the best way to "spread it around"?  And start by putting in $10.5 Quintana, $5 Phelps, and $3 Graveman?  Then maybe spend the next $10-plus on another Q-esque starter?
 Be too stretched to extend Castellanos, or to pursue Cole?

I think doing so might just reassure that you're kind or reassuring the same sort of team:  An under-stuffed rotation that needs to overachieve, and might keep you in the wildcard mix but doesn't have stuff to match up with the top rotations.  A lineup that with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Baez, and Schwarber will hit some HR's and keep you in the wildcard mix, but isn't likely to have the consistency to match up with the top lineups.  Probably a mediocre defense. 

My preference would be to gamble and bundle the cash towards at least one guy who's positively good, or maybe two if possible.  Replace Q with Cole, for example, your rotation might end up being hypothetically superb.  Remove Almora with Castellanos, your offense might be more relentless. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 22, 2019, 08:03:35 pm
Add $10 by declining Quintana's option. 

I was thinking you'd pick that up and trade him, but he's been so bad this month he might have negative trade value with that contract.  Declining him would have to be a serious consideration.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 22, 2019, 08:11:50 pm

My preference would be to **** and bundle the cash towards at least one guy who's positively good, or maybe two if possible.  Replace Q with Cole, for example, your rotation might end up being hypothetically superb.  Remove Almora with Castellanos, your offense might be more relentless. 

The 2016 Yankees have been tossed out there as a theoretical comp.  They didn't blow it up and start from zero like we did when Theo started, but they traded everything that was expiring soon and retooled.  That option should be at least on the table - trade Bryant, Schwarber, maybe Contreras, Quintana if he's worth anything (as with Happ).  Re-sign Castellanos, make a couple of LIAB moves and you probably still have a competitive team next season and then go big after that.

If you're going the incremental route - trying to make one more run with this group - I think it involves adding a true CF who can lead off by hook or by crook, finding a platoon partner for Heyward and leaving him exclusively in right, and choosing between Schwarber and Castellanos for left.  It doesn't work to have both.  Find a veteran 2B option as insurance for Hoerner, upgrade the staff as best you can (I'd be tempted to still deal Quintana and let Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay and Graveman duke it out for the last two spots) by signing a reliable RH setup man.  At this point you have to hope with a full ST Kimbrel is at least good in the closer role, and ride it out with Ryan, Hultzen and Wieck from the left side.

Obviously extending Javy is priority 1 and changing managers priority 2 whichever route you take.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 22, 2019, 08:39:54 pm
I'd like to see them commit to Chatwood in the rotation for at least a couple of months to start the season. I'm still not convinced he's that good, but he clearly has upside. Cubs need upside to compete next year, or they can trade it at the deadline if they don't compete. Of course, they should also make him available this offseason...if anyone wants to take all of his contract, that's even better.

I think they have to make every effort to trade Heyward this offseason. He's been good enough this year that maybe someone would be willing to take him if the Cubs paid his contract down to $8-$10 million a year. And this is the last offseason he won't have full no trade rights.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 22, 2019, 09:48:30 pm
Trading Bryant means a rebuild.  There isn’t a way to make this team competitive without him and it not costing $300 million in payroll.

Trading Heyward to free up $10 million will create another hole and not enough money to fill it.

It would be great if Graveman looked good enough to dump Quintana and free up $7 million. Hopefully Chatwood can be moved to free up some money too.

Hopefully Marquee will increase the revenue too creating more flexibility to add to the offense and fix the starting rotation. Not fixing the starting rotation means another year of struggling.

The Cubs are 19-28 in 1 run games this year. Hopefully this is the anti-Orioles situation, when a few years ago the Orioles where ridiculous in 1 run games and made the playoffs. If the Cubs where just .500 this year...

Joe will always be my favorite manager, but this team needs a new voice. Hopefully it isn’t Girardi.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 22, 2019, 09:52:37 pm
https://twitter.com/bornonthirdcubs/status/1175960654487969792?s=21
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 22, 2019, 10:07:24 pm
I wonder how attractive the Cubs are or will be to FA's?  In the Lester and Heyward era, this was clearly a team on the rise, and the possibilities were limitless.  Now this may seem to be a kind of average has-been team, with no rising young talent, and with rebuild a possibility during a multi-year contract. 

Maybe Castellanos, for example, would rather go with a playoff team? 

There was a time when the Cubs were the hot thing, but I wonder if players and agents don't see it that way anymore? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 22, 2019, 10:11:46 pm
I wonder how attractive the Cubs are or will be to FA's?  In the Lester and Heyward era, this was clearly a team on the rise, and the possibilities were limitless.  Now this may seem to be a kind of average has-been team, with no rising young talent, and with rebuild a possibility during a multi-year contract. 

Maybe Castellanos, for example, would rather go with a playoff team? 

There was a time when the Cubs were the hot thing, but I wonder if players and agents don't see it that way anymore? 


$$$$
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 22, 2019, 10:19:14 pm
Unfortunately, the Cubs aren't going to spend $$$$.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 22, 2019, 10:32:59 pm
Unfortunately, the Cubs aren't going to spend $$$$.

Yeah, they've been real cheapskates.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 23, 2019, 04:20:06 am
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27680505/weekend-wipeout-sweeps-away-last-shreds-cubs-championship-legacy
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 23, 2019, 07:11:43 am
A couple of things occur to me:

Some of us said at the AS Break, that was the time to replace Joe.  Looking back, we couldn't have ended any worse.

The other day some writer opined that keeping Russell sunk the Cubs and Cubs' morale.  What a reach.  When Russell was in Iowa the Cubs didn't play any better, and he didn't play this last weekend.  I blame it on Bryant's ankle injury today.  'Bout as likely.  If we blame anyone, including Joe, alone, it's a huge mistake.

The lift we got from Castellanos and Zobrist arrivals should be indicators of a leaderless team most of whom cannot put the bat on the ball in crucial situations.  Heck, even little Kemp proved to be a better clutch hitter.

If Theo doesn't act, nobody will trust anything he says again.

The Padres fired their manager early to get a jump on the Giants, the Cubs, the Phillies and anyone else looking to make a change.  Smart.

You hit the nail on the head with your leaderless comment. That is one of Theo’s greatest frustrations with this team.

While the Padres may have gotten a head start, every prospective manager and/or their agent knows that other teams will be looking. The most sought after people will be patient as they have leverage.

Sorry for the delay on the Castellanos clarification. My understanding is that the Cubs aren’t interested at the 4/$80 asking price or anywhere near that. Of course if the price comes down substantially they would have interest. They just don’t think it will come down enough to get him. Then again they didn’t think they were going to keep Dexter Fowler and they got him for an extra year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 23, 2019, 08:38:20 am
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27680505/weekend-wipeout-sweeps-away-last-shreds-cubs-championship-legacy

For the most part, I think this is a very good analysis by Jesse Rogers.  I do think it oversimplifies the Cubs' downfall since 2016.  I mean, it is a fact that prior to this season (even with the awful 2nd half of 2018) the Cubs had the best record in the NL over a four year period, making it to the playoffs each season and to the NL championship game twice. Seems to me that the precipitous fall took place during he last season and a half.

Still, it was a very good piece, particularly this excerpt:

It's a lack of everything, including the fundamentals of the game. Some numbers lie, but some don't: The Cubs lead the majors in outs made on the bases, are third in the National League in errors and have the worst save rate in the NL in the ninth inning or later, blowing an MLB-worst 15 of 50 opportunities. They do some things well, such as hitting home runs and shutting down the opponent during blowout wins.

In perhaps the most misleading statistic of any team, the Cubs actually rank third in bullpen ERA in the NL. But take a shovel and dig just below the surface -- not very far at all -- and you see the underbelly of a bullpen that has been a mess. In high-leverage situations -- you know, close games -- the Cubs' relief crew is last in the NL in walk rate (13.6%) and K/BB ratio (1.6) and 12th in WHIP (1.50) and opponents' OPS (.856). Talk about the pressure exceeding the pleasure.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 23, 2019, 08:48:02 am
Weren't they in the NLCS 3 years in a row? 2015-2017
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on September 23, 2019, 09:24:28 am
Reading the Cubs article on ESPN...the headline that follows it is: Astros clinch AL West behind Springer's 3 HRs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 23, 2019, 09:33:40 am
The Cubs have given us a 4 year run of pretty good (sometimes great) baseball, and long time fans like me are highly appreciative.  If the objective is to win more championships, clearly something isn't working.  I would like to see changes made with an eye towards improving team fundamentals.  Smarter baserunning, stronger defense, better situational hitting, less whiffing.  More consistency in the bullpen (this is partly health-related, I realize) with less reliance on the Iowa shuttle.  If we can add another solid starter to replace Hamels, the rotation should be OK.  I don't know what moves to make to accomplish these goals, but it will need to be more than a tweak (but not anywhere near a total rebuild).  I don't have replacing Maddon on my list of must do's, but it's likely that he's finished one way or the other.  Let's hope that Theo has a vision that will get us moving back in the right direction.   
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 23, 2019, 09:52:45 am
  I would like to see changes made with an eye towards improving team fundamentals. 
Two things that have always bothered me about Joe Maddon:  He apparently has no objection to

batter/runners diving into first base instead of running through the bag
Base runners headed towards third looking back over their shoulder at the center fielder or right fielder


Yes, there are exceptions but they are few and far between.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 09:56:13 am
I think the push for aggressive baserunning was a result of not being able to play station-to-station baseball, being able to string hits together, take walks, etc.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 23, 2019, 10:04:16 am
I'm not sure about 2019 but Joe Maddon's teams have always been known for excelling at going from first to third.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 10:09:32 am
The aggressive baserunning has always been a hallmark, including back when he coached for the Angels.  It's harder now when the team is so uncommonly slow.  But that willingness to be aggressive on the bases, sometimes at the risk of some outs, has always been common.  And it's part of the El Mago stuff, too. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 10:49:45 am
For the most part, I think this is a very good analysis by Jesse Rogers.  I do think it oversimplifies the Cubs' downfall since 2016.  I mean, it is a fact that prior to this season (even with the awful 2nd half of 2018) the Cubs had the best record in the NL over a four year period, making it to the playoffs each season and to the NL championship game twice. Seems to me that the precipitous fall took place during he last season and a half.

Still, it was a very good piece, particularly this excerpt:

It's a lack of everything, including the fundamentals of the game. Some numbers lie, but some don't: The Cubs lead the majors in outs made on the bases, are third in the National League in errors and have the worst save rate in the NL in the ninth inning or later, blowing an MLB-worst 15 of 50 opportunities. They do some things well, such as hitting home runs and shutting down the opponent during blowout wins.

In perhaps the most misleading statistic of any team, the Cubs actually rank third in bullpen ERA in the NL. But take a shovel and dig just below the surface -- not very far at all -- and you see the underbelly of a bullpen that has been a mess. In high-leverage situations -- you know, close games -- the Cubs' relief crew is last in the NL in walk rate (13.6%) and K/BB ratio (1.6) and 12th in WHIP (1.50) and opponents' OPS (.856). Talk about the pressure exceeding the pleasure.


Didn’t care much for the Jesse Rogers piece.

As to the bullpen, it’s a poor analysis. Cubs bullpen ERA was 3.89. In 2016, a 3.89 ERA would be #10 in the NL. But, in 2019 that’s #3 in the NL with offense around the league way up. With any 3.89 ERA you’re going to have some poor results here and there. Very few folks believe in “clutch” as a skill but that’s what Rogers is doing by blaming “pressure” late-inning performance by the bullpen. I don’t buy that. Had some bad games. It happens in baseball. More broadly, dominant pitching should be the goal, so I’m all in for trying to do that in 2020.

Baserunning and defense were another matter. Everybody knows that. Inexplicable—but so was the 2016 off-the-charts positive performances. Have yet to see a good explanation. It’s just baseball. Didn’t get an explanation from Rogers—just stating the obvious.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: BearHit on September 23, 2019, 11:15:19 am

Even if you lead the league in all categories -you still need "luck" to get to the world series - and even more to WIN it
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on September 23, 2019, 12:50:13 pm
Q on a 1-yr, $10M deal is absolutely an asset. Whether he's the Cubs' asset or trade fodder, I don't know, but that's absolutely a worthwhile piece for the Cubs or almost any other club.

If the Cubs believe in both Graveman's recovery and Chatwood's "resurgence," maybe you trade Q, but they're not going to spend the money on Cole, and a 2020 rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Graveman/Mills/Chatwood/Alzolay... that looks pretty rough. Lester is probably a 4th-starter going forward, so to have 60% of your rotation as 4/5-types and expecting to contend... don't think that's acceptable for this team.

Would like to see the Cubs either buy down Heyward's deal and trade him, or acquire a decent CF so that Heyward can move back to right. Appreciate that Jason can play CF, but it doesn't seem to be his strength, and for a game that continues to trend towards balls in the air, I don't think it's a good idea to plan on a Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos style OF (LF to RF) with black holes like Almora as the "next-best-option."

Would like to see Nico as the starting 2B next year. Yes, that's moving him along much more quickly than whatever his original timeline might have been, but his plate discipline seems to be good enough for the big leagues now, and his power is showing up in-game, too. Cubs need to save money somewhere, and players need to step up. I think that means Hoerner penciled in at 2B.

The only "rebuild" style move that I see is trading Contreras. Not advocating for it, but Caratini looks like he can be about a league average hitter, which is plenty good for a starting C, and Contreras' trade value is probably at its peak, coming off a very good offensive year, with plenty of arb-eligible seasons in front of him. If the Cubs are going to make a splash on the trade front, it's got to be Willy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 02:42:56 pm
...As to the bullpen, it’s a poor analysis. Cubs bullpen ERA was 3.89. In 2016, a 3.89 ERA would be #10 in the NL. But, in 2019 that’s #3 in the NL with offense around the league way up. With any 3.89 ERA you’re going to have some poor results here and there. Very few folks believe in “clutch” as a skill but that’s what Rogers is doing by blaming “pressure” late-inning performance by the bullpen. ....

Baserunning and defense were another matter. Everybody knows that. Inexplicable—but so was the 2016 off-the-charts positive performances. Have yet to see a good explanation. It’s just baseball. Didn’t get an explanation from Rogers—just stating the obvious.

reb, your observation that "clutch" isn't generally viewed as an individual skill is perhaps not pertinent.   In terms of actual "clutch" performance, the statistics are true to what actually happened; the Cubs blew a lot of late "clutch saves.  You observe that the 3.89 ERA is 3rd-in-league; but the performance in clutch save situations was factually not 3rd-best in league. You can argue that it's "just baseball", random; and that projecting forward if the pen finishes 3rd-in-ERA next year, it will probably NOT blow so many saves late.  But this actual season, the reality is we did lose an inordinate number of savable games. 

I'm going to suggest that "clutch" may be a skill for bullpens composite?  Managers normally use relievers selectively ("use-when-winning" versus "use-when-losing" guys,)  tending to use their best relievers pitch in the clutch.  The Brewers use Jay Jackson and Hader situationally.  As a result, for a bullpen composite, there really is a "clutchness skill", because the much-more-skillful Hader gets use in the clutch.  If that makes sense? 

Groups of Cub relievers: 
*A.  Kimbrel (6.53), Edwards (5.87), Strop (4.99), Cishek (3.03), and to some degree Brach (6.13)
*B.  Kintzler (2.82); Ryan (3.00); Wick (2.45); Chatwood (3.76)

Group B have good ERA's, and kept the pen's composite ERA down.  (As did Underwood, Norwood, Phelps, Wieck, Hultzien, Holland, Collins, and Mills in variably limited usage.) 

Group A, other than Cishek, had high ERA's, well above the pen's composite ERA. 

One of the reasons the Cubs pen was effectively anti-clutch this year, I think, is because most of Group A were used preferentially in the clutch.  Other than Edwards, the other "Group A" guys are the veteran types that Maddon preferred to use in clutch.  Most managers situationally use their best relievers in the clutch; we situationally used our worst relievers in the clutch, to large extent. 

Group B, all three of Kintzler, Ryan, and Wick worked their way up into some clutch usage.  But it took each of them a while.  And none was used much in 9th-inning-save-situations. 
Group B also includes Chatwood, and at 76 innings pitched, he's got more innings pitched than any of the other relievers.  But he was never used in clutch situations. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 02:47:48 pm
Bob Nightengale has a piece up in which he says there are three guys Cubs won’t trade:  Baez, Contreras, Hendricks.

Just don’t see trading Contreras. Never got back to his first-half groove after coming back from IL. Think we need that first-half Contreras, if he can do that again.

Maybe Cubs should shop around Caratini as a nice trade piece—-would think some clubs would want him as a starter?

Regarding CF, wonder if Red Sox would consider trading Benintendi? Of course has been a LFer in Boston because of Jackie Bradley but drafted as a CFer. Had a miserable finish (offensively and defensively) to 2019 and Sox might want to make some big moves. Never know. Could lead off with Cubs.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 02:59:39 pm
Rizzo and Darvish would be more untouchable than Contreras, seems to me.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 03:06:18 pm
Looking at finances, Caratini and Lucroy make less than what Cont reras will eventually command and proved capable during Contreras' absence.  He would command a much better return as well.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 23, 2019, 03:10:52 pm
I'm not sure about 2019 but Joe Maddon's teams have always been known for excelling at going from first to third.

Not more than a month ago, Len and JD were saying that the Cubs were the best in baseball this year going from first to third.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 23, 2019, 03:18:05 pm
Agree Rizzo is probably untouchable. I don't think Darvish is untouchable...but I also don't think anyone wants his full contract, and the Cubs couldn't come close to replace his potential production if they paid down half his contract.

I may have mentioned this before...I'd be kind of interested in seeing the Cubs transition Contreras to a corner OF spot. I think he has the athleticism to do it. He definitely has the arm. Pitch framing is just never going to be there for him at catcher. And it would be nice to get his bat in the lineup for 155+ games instead of 120-125 games.

I've wondered if Benintendi could be an option too--with a front office change, hard to know what the Red Sox will do this offseason. He seems like a pretty good fit and a different type of hitter from what the Cubs already have.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on September 23, 2019, 03:29:18 pm
Quote
Pitch framing is just never going to be there for him at catcher. And it would be nice to get his bat in the lineup for 155+ games instead of 120-125 games.

Can we just get the robot umps installed, so nobody has to move otherwise very talented catchers to other positions because of a garbage stat?  Moving players off of catcher because of that is just bad for baseball.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 03:35:53 pm
Craig- What happened, happened. No denying that.

But, in the majors, a lot of stuff is random, inexplicable. If “clutch” is not a skill, then a poor performance in that sub-category, while frustrating, is not a matter of having the wrong guys if they are otherwise performing well relative to the league. The bullpen overall had 2nd best hard-hit % and 3rd best HR/9, along with 3rd best ERA.

Why that didn’t translate better to key situations, beats me. As to usage, as you note, guys with a track record or no track record, are going to move in or out of higher leverage situations based on performance. In the meantime, they may blow up or help team performance in a sub-category, but that’s hindsight. Yeah, Kimbrel blew up late and close but the usage at the time was proper.

Rogers seemed to attribute these problems to performing under “pressure.” Don’t buy that but the numbers are the numbers. Taken as a whole, it was a good bullpen by 2019 standards.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 03:51:26 pm
Can we just get the robot umps installed, so nobody has to move otherwise very talented catchers to other positions because of a garbage stat?  Moving players off of catcher because of that is just bad for baseball.

Yeah, you couldn’t create a better example than Contreras if you went to a drawing board. Really good hitter for a catcher, outstanding arm, quick out of a crouch and a playmaker on toppers and bunts, and a guy who seems to have fun being in every play and working with pitchers.

But, sucks as a framer. And, at times, it hurts. Never bought into the dramatic run effects attributable to catcher framing but it’s a factor and more than tiny.

Kind of amazing what happens when catcher sets up outside corner for a heater and pitcher totally misses spot and throws to inside corner—-and pitch ends up clearly within inside corner.  Almost never called a strike because high heat basically an unframeable pitch for a catcher (if he can catch it) and glove is moving.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 04:03:30 pm
....But, in the majors, a lot of stuff is random, inexplicable. If “clutch” is not a skill, then a poor performance in that sub-category, while frustrating, is not a matter of having the wrong guys if they are otherwise performing well relative to the league. ...

Kimbrel, Strop, Edwards, and Brach did not otherwise perform well relative to the league.  They were pretty much lousy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 04:07:30 pm

...I've wondered if Benintendi could be an option too--with a front office change, hard to know what the Red Sox will do this offseason. He seems like a pretty good fit and a different type of hitter from what the Cubs already have.

Maybe I’m reading too much into the effects of Benintendi’s bad September but always intrigued by him, in part because think that Cubs really wanted to draft him but Red Sox sucked the previous season and got to pick him before Cubs pick (Happ).

Generally, more offense expected from corner OFer than CFer and Benintendi judged in Boston that way. But, would likely be a solid leadoff guy for Cubs and guessing he’d be at least a decent CFer in Wrigley, allowing Heyward to play RF almost all the time.

Guessing that Sox might want Schwarber. That would make a Castellanos re-sign more urgent perhaps.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 04:12:55 pm
Kimbrel, Strop, Edwards, and Brach did not otherwise perform well relative to the league.  They were pretty much lousy.

Yeah, and of course, their overall numbers were bad, not just clutch.

Let’s cherry-pick and figure out Cubs overall bullpen ERA deleting all their innings!

Kimbrel latest example of mid-season FA sucking in partial year of signing. I’m sure Theo knew that was possible but hoped for the best. Guessing and hoping that Kimbrel will be solid for 2020 and remainder of his contract.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 23, 2019, 04:18:22 pm
Can we just get the robot umps installed, so nobody has to move otherwise very talented catchers to other positions because of a garbage stat?  Moving players off of catcher because of that is just bad for baseball.

Of course I agree with that--that's the best solution. But it doesn't seem like it's happening any time soon. Assuming Contreras can be somewhere approaching average on an outfield corner, I think the Cubs sadly get more value out of him as an outfielder.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 04:20:34 pm
Kimbrel, Strop, Edwards, and Brach did not otherwise perform well relative to the league.  They were pretty much lousy.
So the odds on Hotovey being back are...what?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 23, 2019, 04:43:10 pm
So the odds on Hotovey being back are...what?

Probably zero.  In the unlikely event Maddon returns, he'll need to do his annual coaching scapegoat routine to explain his failures.  And a new guy would probably want his own guys as coaches.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 23, 2019, 04:46:40 pm
Maybe I’m reading too much into the effects of Benintendi’s bad September but always intrigued by him, in part because think that Cubs really wanted to draft him but Red Sox sucked the previous season and got to pick him before Cubs pick (Happ).

Generally, more offense expected from corner OFer than CFer and Benintendi judged in Boston that way. But, would likely be a solid leadoff guy for Cubs and guessing he’d be at least a decent CFer in Wrigley, allowing Heyward to play RF almost all the time.


Since you love to lecture people about defensive stats, surely you realize Benintendi has consistently graded out as a terrible CF?  Not mediocre - terrible.  I think he's an interesting bat that could help, but an everyday CF?  No way.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 23, 2019, 04:49:59 pm
Q on a 1-yr, $10M deal is absolutely an asset. Whether he's the Cubs' asset or trade fodder, I don't know, but that's absolutely a worthwhile piece for the Cubs or almost any other club.

If the Cubs believe in both Graveman's recovery and Chatwood's "resurgence," maybe you trade Q, but they're not going to spend the money on Cole, and a 2020 rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Graveman/Mills/Chatwood/Alzolay... that looks pretty rough. Lester is probably a 4th-starter going forward, so to have 60% of your rotation as 4/5-types and expecting to contend... don't think that's acceptable for this team.

Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana doesn't really look like a competitive rotation either.  The top of the Cubs rotation is lacking and if the don't address then the Cubs are screwed.  Imagine if Darvish opts out, that roation is fugly.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 23, 2019, 04:53:39 pm
So the odds on Hotovey being back are...what?

I'd be very surprised if Hotovey is not back. Seems like the Cubs are very happy with him. There are plenty of examples of guys who he is reported to have helped. I don't see how he can be blamed for the performance of those 4 guys.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 23, 2019, 04:58:21 pm
I'm going to suggest that "clutch" may be a skill for bullpens composite?  Managers normally use relievers selectively ("use-when-winning" versus "use-when-losing" guys,)  tending to use their best relievers pitch in the clutch.  The Brewers use Jay Jackson and Hader situationally.  As a result, for a bullpen composite, there really is a "clutchness skill", because the much-more-skillful Hader gets use in the clutch.  If that makes sense?   

Hader had a 48.7% K%.  He nearly struck out every other batter he faced this year and only converted on 85.3% of his save chances.  2003/04 Joe Borowski had a better save percentage.  Closing with bouncy balls is hard.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 23, 2019, 04:59:19 pm
So the odds on Hotovey being back are...what?

I bet he's back.  He seems to fit well into the whole pitching lab setup.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 23, 2019, 05:01:19 pm
Yeah, you couldn’t create a better example than Contreras if you went to a drawing board. Really good hitter for a catcher, outstanding arm, quick out of a crouch and a playmaker on toppers and bunts, and a guy who seems to have fun being in every play and working with pitchers.

But, sucks as a framer. And, at times, it hurts. Never bought into the dramatic run effects attributable to catcher framing but it’s a factor and more than tiny.

Kind of amazing what happens when catcher sets up outside corner for a heater and pitcher totally misses spot and throws to inside corner—-and pitch ends up clearly within inside corner.  Almost never called a strike because high heat basically an unframeable pitch for a catcher (if he can catch it) and glove is moving.

I like Contreras, especially his offense and his arm. But in evaluating his defense, aside from framing, don't errors count also? Contreras leads all NL catches with 12 errors (tied with Diaz), even though he has fewer innings than at least seven other catchers. 

Seems to me that Bryant and Contreras are the two guys who make the most attractive trade opportunities for the Cubs, if they really want to shake up the team defensively.  I love Bryant, but I think the Cubs have to see what kind of package they can get for him. Maybe the same with Contreras? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 23, 2019, 05:08:46 pm
Man I had always though of Benintendi as a athletic player who could play defense without really watching him.  Advance stats don't like him.  His sprint speed this year was 55th percentile and his OF jump was 28th percentile.  Schwarber is 55th percentile in sprint speed and 17th percentile in OF jump.  Heyward is 61th in speed and 75th in OF jump.  For reference Almora is 83rd in speed and 87th in jump.  Almora really needs a Dodger like swing change.



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on September 23, 2019, 05:16:27 pm
Quote
Can we just get the robot umps installed

My money is on year after next, and I'll be pretty pissed if it doesn't happen.  The technology is good enough to track the spin of the baseball, so there's really no excuse for continuing to ask humans to do the really, really hard thing of calling major league pitches.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on September 23, 2019, 05:17:30 pm
Quote
Almora really needs a Dodger like swing change.

Some time in the Batting Lab.  They have one of those, right?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 05:21:34 pm
Since you love to lecture people about defensive stats, surely you realize Benintendi has consistently graded out as a terrible CF?  Not mediocre - terrible.  I think he's an interesting bat that could help, but an everyday CF?  No way.

I am keenly aware of (1) the gigantic chip on your shoulder and (2) Benintendi’s CF stats.

As to (2) above, in 300 innings in 2017 and 2019, stats say average in CF. In 200 innings in 2016 and 2018, stats say below average. It’s a peculiar mix, especially with a small sample size. Then there’s an unusual home ballpark for OF defense, the small sample size, a guy who had a good CF reputation when drafted, is still young, and has played mostly a corner because guys next to him are great. Will take a scouting assessment to put some flesh on the limited CF data and combination of circumstances. Posed this as something to consider, not some kind of done deal.

In sum, an odd and peculiar mix—-kind of like the guy referenced in (1) above.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 05:34:02 pm
I like Contreras, especially his offense and his arm. But in evaluating his defense, aside from framing, don't errors count also? Contreras leads all NL catches with 12 errors (tied with Diaz), even though he has fewer innings than at least seven other catchers. 

Seems to me that Bryant and Contreras are the two guys who make the most attractive trade opportunities for the Cubs, if they really want to shake up the team defensively.  I love Bryant, but I think the Cubs have to see what kind of package they can get for him. Maybe the same with Contreras?

Contreras has 42 career errors and 32 of them are throwing errors.

As we know, Contreras loves to show his arm and probably should do a bit less of that, including eating the ball instead of throwing at times.

That is not nothing. But, does a lot of good things too with his arm and otherwise is a good mechanical catcher.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 05:36:28 pm
" Closing with bouncy balls is hard."   

Doc, is that a medical condition we don't know about?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 23, 2019, 05:38:36 pm
I think Contrerras has elite athleticism, energy and a terrific arm, that said, there is something missing with him. I don't know if this correlates at all, but his base-running instincts are easily the worst on the team and perhaps among the worst in baseball. He is poor at blocking pitches, a terrible framer. I don't know how well he calls a game but if you use his other tools as a judge, it would be easy to see how pitchers wouldn't like throwing to him. Perhaps the biggest change from 2016 to 2017 was Willson Contrerras being installed as the full-time catcher. I think the Cub's staff missed Montero and Ross more than stats can quantify.  Therefore, I think moving to Caratini and a veteran back-up would be a good move for the Cubs next year. I would love Willson in the outfield. Put him in right, trade Heyward for whatever you can get while eating as little of his salary as possible, and hang on to Schwarber. Go get Garrit Cole and spend what you can on the bullpen and bench. Trade Russell, Almora and Happ as well. A deeper line-up with a contact guy in center and Hoerner at 2nd could be really good if the ball is fixed.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 23, 2019, 05:39:53 pm
I have to wonder what this season's results would be minus the juiced ball. The Cub's hitters have plenty of power without it. Perhaps evening the playing field so everybody can hit homers made that skill less special.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 23, 2019, 05:45:19 pm
Disabuse yourself of any notion Heyward has positive value in trade.  It’s just a question of how much salary you’d have to eat to give him away.  Given that he does offer some tangible value as a player if he hits as he did this year, I don’t see how that makes sense for the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 23, 2019, 06:48:10 pm
Kimbrel latest example of mid-season FA sucking in partial year of signing. I’m sure Theo knew that was possible but hoped for the best. Guessing and hoping that Kimbrel will be solid for 2020 and remainder of his contract.

Kimbrel also struggled, though not as bad, the second half of last year. Spring training is six weeks and roughly 8 appearances. Kimbrel's had 2-1/2 months and 23 appearances and he still sucks.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 23, 2019, 06:48:11 pm
The only thing I know for certain about this offseason is that the Cubs should stay far, far away from Gerrit Cole.

A largely mediocre pitcher that became great when he went to Houston?  No, thank you.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 23, 2019, 06:50:44 pm
Charlie Morton's been terrific since leaving Houston. Maybe pitchers can take what they learned with them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 23, 2019, 07:11:06 pm
Citing only how many throwing errors Willson Contreras made gives an incomplete picture unless you also consider how many outs those throws produced.  It's also safe to say some runners shorten their leads because of him.  I suspect the end result is still a bit negative but is not has bad as it looks at first.

The same goes for the Cubs leading the league in runners put out on the bases.  As someone previously said, the Cubs are the best at going from first to third.  There is a connection.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 07:29:37 pm
Yeah, and of course, their overall numbers were bad, not just clutch.

Let’s cherry-pick and figure out Cubs overall bullpen ERA deleting all their innings!...

reb, I agree with the point you've made, that the Cubs bullpen ERA was 3rd-in-league, which is good.  The Cubs "overall bullpen ERA" was good.  But that doesn't obviate the reality that the Cubs close/save/clutch pen performance was not 3rd-in-league.  It was bad, and was a non-trivial contributor to why we couldn't take 5th place.   

"Let's Cherry-pick" is pejorative and rhetorical.  But clutch/late/save situations have more impact on W-L than blowout innings.  Clutch/late/save performance is a component of overall pen-ERA, and an important component unto itself. 

The point I made (apart from your overall-pen-ERA-is-good point with which I agree) is that clutch performance was bad because we selectively used our bad relievers in those situations.  We predominantly used our good relievers in non-clutch situations.

Usually managers are able to identify their best relievers, and use them preferentially in clutch situations.  That didn't happen this year for us. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 08:01:37 pm
Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana doesn't really look like a competitive rotation either.  The top of the Cubs rotation is lacking and if the don't address then the Cubs are screwed.  Imagine if Darvish opts out, that rotation is fugly.

Agree.  I don't see the upside in a Lester-Q rotation.  Don't see why we should be particularly surprised to finish in 6th or 7th place (or worse) with Lester and Q taking on 40% of the starts.  I expect Lester to get another year older, and at best stay as he is; at worst take another step slower and get worse.  For Q, I expect he'll probably be about the same (average or a shade below) but I'm nervous that he's near the edge and may fall down the cliff soon. 

ERA is 4.55, and he's ERA+ of 98, already below average.  xFIP trajectory over the last six years:  3.37 > 3.51 > 4.03 > 3.73 > 4.18 > 4.22.  Not sure; maybe the last four are basically random scatter around 4.1 and he'll give a few more xFIP in the low 4's for years?  Or maybe he's on a general downhill trajectory, and it may accelerate?  Who knows?  Maybe I'm undervaluing the importance of average?  Maybe $10.5 for average is great value, and we'll be sorry if we reallocate that towards other areas?

I just feel like he's thrown so many pitches, that his arm is older than his age, and I'm really nervous that he's not going to stay average and is ready to decline below that, perhaps significantly. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 10:16:05 pm

....The point I made (apart from your overall-pen-ERA-is-good point with which I agree) is that clutch performance was bad because we selectively used our bad relievers in those situations.  We predominantly used our good relievers in non-clutch situations. Usually managers are able to identify their best relievers, and use them preferentially in clutch situations.  That didn't happen this year for us. 

Craig- In my earlier post I didn’t grasp that your reference to Kimbrel-Strop-Brach-Edwards was in reference to the above point—-thought you were just singling out the poor performers and that seemed a bit arbitrary. Get the point now.

But, is the point a good one?

So, I went thru BR and looked at how often the good performers were used Close-and-Late compared to the poor performers you cite. Below are total appearances followed by #of Close and Late.

Cishek  68/42

Kintzler 59/34

Ryan 71/31

Wick 30/21.

I count 128  Close Late appearances for above. Took awhile for Ryan to be used like this but he came into season as a nobody.

Your bad guys:

Kimbrel 23/19

Strop 48/26

Brach (with Cubs) 42/17

Edwards 22/10.

Let’s throw in sucky Montgomery too in this group: 20/10.

That’s 82 Close Late appearances.

Of course, Kimbrel had to be used in clutch and Strop had long track record in this role. Probably a fair point that Strop should have been reduced earlier in this role.

So, do facts support notion that bad relievers/good relievers used out of whack?

Don’t think so, especially with extenuating circumstances noted.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 23, 2019, 10:38:09 pm
Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana doesn't really look like a competitive rotation either.  The top of the Cubs rotation is lacking and if the don't address then the Cubs are screwed.  Imagine if Darvish opts out, that roation is fugly.

If we can posit that Darvish picks up in 2020 where he left off in 2019 (we can hope), he had a 2.76 ERA after the break. 2.76 for the season would be #4 in NL among all SPs.

Hendricks has ERA of 3.37, which is #11 in NL—-tied with Strasburg and just behind Walker Buehler.

I think it’s a good point that adding a top notch SP to Darvish/Hendricks would have a big impact. I’m fine with Q and Lester at #4 and #5, with Chatwood in the picture. Tough to accomplish.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2019, 10:48:59 pm
When I saw the Cardinals lose to Oakland two games in late June, they looked terrible.  No chance to compete with the Cubs.  Since the All Star break they have gone 45-22. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 23, 2019, 10:53:48 pm
Lester was abysmal in the 2nd half and there aren't many signs he's going to revert to his prime self. That's a problem.

Hendricks is a good pitcher. He also doesn't give you many innings. That's a problem.

Quintana's been mediocre. That's a problem.

The Cubs need a significant upgrade in the rotation.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 23, 2019, 10:56:37 pm
In fact, for all you WAR heads, Hamels has more of it than Lester and Quintana combined. And that's despite missing a month.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 23, 2019, 11:05:51 pm
If Q is a consensus steal at $10.5, and Theo will surely retain him at that price;
1.  Will Theo be interested in resigning Hamels at $10.5 as well? 
2.  If not, will it be because Theo chooses not to?  Or because Hamels gets >$10.5 from somebody else and won't be available at a Q-esque price? 
3.  If you decided you wanted one but not both, and you could have either one at the same $10.5, which would you choose between Q and Hamels? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on September 23, 2019, 11:07:06 pm
Quote
But, is the point a good one?

I think to actually disprove the salient point you would need to post their ERAs in clutch/late situations vs regular.  My guess is that there's a correlation there--that Cubs relievers were decidedly "non-clutch" above and beyond the normal ebbs and flows of baseball.  I'm willing to concede that I could be wrong, though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 24, 2019, 02:06:21 am

..Hendricks is a good pitcher. He also doesn't give you many innings. That's a problem...

Hendricks throws plenty of innings. He has 171 innings going into his start on Tuesday. Only 11 pitchers in NL have as many as 180.

In 2018, Hendricks just missed top 10 in majors in IP with 199. Mikolas was #10 with 200.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 24, 2019, 03:11:34 am
Hendricks throws plenty of innings. He has 171 innings going into his start on Tuesday. Only 11 pitchers in NL have as many as 180.

In 2018, Hendricks just missed top 10 in majors in IP with 199. Mikolas was #10 with 200.

Not as bad as I thought, but still 20th in the NL and he'd be behind Soroka and Scherzer if they had as many starts.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 24, 2019, 08:10:06 am
I'm strongly in favor adding another starter- ideally a #2.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 24, 2019, 08:45:02 am

But, is the point a good one?


Reb - I am a little confused by your post. From your numbers it appears that the "bad" relievers pitched in about 25% of the close and late situations.  Why doesn't that support the idea that they had a heavy responsibility for the Cubs' poor performances in those situations. It's not as though anyone is saying the Cubs were overwhelmingly awful in close and late, just that they were relatively bad. 

I understand that it made sense to use those guys in such situations (mostly), but that doesn't change the fact that the guys were supposed to be your best relievers in critical situations did very poorly, which would account for the Cubs losing a number of otherwise winnable close games.

So you can have a bullpen that overall looks good but that under-performed in critical situations. Largely because the guys you were counting on did badly and the ones who were not expected to be especially good did very well.

Or perhaps I am missing something?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 24, 2019, 08:45:08 am
I agree, offense is fickle. I think Schwarber's second half was very encouraging, Hoerner looks like a long term solution at 2b even if you start him in AAA next year. Javy, Rizzo and Contreras are very good as well. Bryant's stats say he is an excellent offensive player. Something is off with him though and I can't put my finger on it. It isn't even that he is supposedly anti-clutch. I don't think the numbers bear that out. He just doesn't dominate like he did several years ago.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 24, 2019, 08:49:38 am
I would like to see Almora, Happ and Russell gone. Zobrist could return on a minimal deal as a back up and pinch hitter but nothing more. I would eat as much of Heywards contract as necessary.  Move Contreras to right. Get a CF in your trades of the formers, get a veteran catcher to back up Caratini. Then spend what it takes to get Cole and whatever is left add to the bullpen. If a Bryant deal comes along listen. Then go hard
after Rendon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 24, 2019, 09:03:21 am
...So, do facts support notion that bad relievers/good relievers used out of whack?  Don’t think so, especially with extenuating circumstances noted.

Thanks for those details.  Q's/notes:
1.  What is the definition used for close/late?  (I tried to google Fangraphs, Hardball Times, Close and Late, glossary, Clutch, etc., and five minutes of searching I never found a link that defined it.) 
2.  Reasons I ask
a.  sincere curiosity;
b.  Rogers used a more narrow scope:  the 50 one-inning save situations, of which we lost 15 and saved 35.  (he used save-situation 9th-or-later, so basically
one-inning saves.)  That may be a "cherry-picking" stat that looks bad when the overall pen was good.  But 15 lost one-inning saves really is a lot.  [Obviously "blown saves" can be "blown" in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innings.  If the offense has 2-1 lead after 5 but stalls at 2 runs, it's not "failure" if the bullpen "blows" the lead and gives up 1 run over innings 6-7-8-9.] 
c. Blowing one-inning saves is different and worse than blowing a 4-inning save.  Bluejay noted that even the amazing Hader's "save %" was "only" 85%.  But I suspect a number of those save situations were 2-inning jobs, or pre-9th-inning situations.
d.  Rogers scope is obviously somewhat cherry-picked.  It would not include Kimbrel's Thursday loss, for example, because that was "tie" not "save".  Still, 50 one-inning-save situations is a significant chunk, and blowing 15 of those is pretty bad.  If you blow 7-8 of them, which is perhaps more typical for one-inning saves, an extra 7-8 wins and we'd be leading the division.     
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 24, 2019, 09:45:48 am
reb, thanks for your close-and-late usage.  It would seem to show that close-and-late usage was pretty evenly shared between our good and bad relievers. 

I'd suggest that's maybe somewhat deceptive, though? 

"Close-and-late" doesn't differentiate trailing versus leading.  But all managers do.  They differentiate "use-when-winning" guys from "use-when-losing" guys. 

When up 2 in the 7th, they use "use-when-winning" guys that they trust more to hold the lead.  When down 2, they are less likely to burn their favorite trusted "use-when-winning" relievers.  Thus "use-when-losing" guys get plenty of "close-and-late" usage; but lots of it in games where you're already losing and where you do lose. 

A lot of our better relievers got a lot of their "close-and-late" appearances in losses, and routinely pitched well to keep games in reach.  But our bad relievers not only dominated one-inning-save usage (Rogers), but also tended to be used disproportionately in close-but-late "use-when-winning" situations, where they being bad pitchers often struggled in the 8th or 7th innings.  I'm guessing it would be hard to find a stats source to filter that hypothesis, though....

I also noticed that you omitted Chatwood, who was pretty carefully and consistently excluded from close-and-late "use-when-winning" situations.  I know he's kind of harder to factor, given some of his innings were starts.  I kinda just pile his full count of innings into the "bullpen" usage, since I view even his starts as "bullpen" innings. He pitched more innings overall than any other reliever, so weights into the overall pen-ERA in a favorable way. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 24, 2019, 09:59:45 am
Last note:  I'm not particularly faulting Maddon for almost exclusively limiting one-inning-save situations to his bad relievers.  Or from disproportionately using bad relievers in "use-when-winning" situations. 

It happened, and he could have adapted more quickly, as you noted with Strop.  But yeah, Strop was great last year, so the default was naturally to allow him to excel again this year.  Edwards has been really gifted in past; it made sense to me to try to give him the opportunity to step up and be as good or better than in his best past.  Kimbrel has a long history of excellence, the Cubs scouting said he was great again, David Ross gave him rave reviews for how ready he was and how good his stuff was and how healthy he looked, and Theo gave him $43 million to close.  Of course a manager is going to give him a good shot.  (I think Maddon used him too heavily early, and that may have contributed to frying his arm, but different discussion).  Brach has had some excellent years past, scouting liked what they saw and signed him; naturally you'd give him a shot to recapture the past good version of himself.  Cishek was very good last year, obviously you default to using him as key man in your use-when-winning pool. 

So, I totally get why the closer choices and the "use-when-winning" guys were used that way initially.  I thought Maddon was overly slow to adapt, yes.  But the initial usage plans, totally understandable. 

And it's not like he was too stubborn to ever adapt.  Kintzler was bad last year; was good this year; over time he earned his way up and got more responsibility.  MM was good in past; over time he got less responsibility.  Strop pitched himself down from use-when-winning usage.  Brach, Edwards pitched themselves down.  Wick, Ryan, and Wieck pitched themselves up, in Ryan and Wieck's cases rather quickly.  No position group ladder is as merit-based flexible as is the bullpen!     
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2019, 10:17:21 am
If Q is a consensus steal at $10.5, and Theo will surely retain him at that price;
1.  Will Theo be interested in resigning Hamels at $10.5 as well? 
2.  If not, will it be because Theo chooses not to?  Or because Hamels gets >$10.5 from somebody else and won't be available at a Q-esque price? 
3.  If you decided you wanted one but not both, and you could have either one at the same $10.5, which would you choose between Q and Hamels? 

Q is fine.  He isn't what the Cubs traded for, but he'd be hard to upgrade at his price in dollars.

Hamels could be an interesting buy low guy.  His lat injury, age and shoulder fatigue could drop his price, but he he can get back to throwing harder he could be a steal.  He ins't what the Cubs need though.  If the budget would allow Cole (or another #1 or #2), Darvish, Hendericks, Hamels and Lester that would get me pretty excited.  Quintana as the #4 is fine. 

I'm all in on the Cubs hopefully bringing Kyle Boddy on board to further their pitching infrastructure.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2019, 10:21:28 am
" Closing with bouncy balls is hard."   

Doc, is that a medical condition we don't know about?

It causes PTSD in Cubs fans when Theo gets together a bunch of contact managers in the bullpen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 24, 2019, 11:19:35 am
Sounds painful.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on September 24, 2019, 12:17:51 pm
Darvish & Hendricks is fine at the top of a rotation. It's everything behind them that scares me. Is it Scherzer/Strasburg? No, of course not. Would adding someone like Cole have a major impact? Yes, and if there's actually the money to spend, Cole would be my #1 acquisition target. But I don't think the Cubs are going to spend so much so as to acquire Cole and meaningfully address other holes in the roster. Would love to be wrong on that.

Re: the bullpen, I'm hopeful that Kimbrel's performance this year is simply the result of missing so much time. Given the returns on Ryan, Wieck, Wick, etc., I'm fine with the Cubs continuing with a mostly LIAB approach to the pen. That's been effective for them, and if they stand any chance of signing someone like Cole, they're going to need every penny they have.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on September 24, 2019, 12:21:32 pm
Also, I don't think Hottovy is going anywhere, and heck yes to bringing Boddy on board.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ticohans on September 24, 2019, 12:23:18 pm
Finally, from the recent Athletic article on the Cubs pitching lab, this right here is the biggest failure of the Cubs org:

"But organizations like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees have set the standard in player development in recent years and the Cubs are eager to catch up."

What those clubs have done with their pitching, the Cubs should have been in lockstep with, not lagging behind for several years now. That's on Theo, and I hope what we've seen with relievers at the big league level this year is an indication that we're making up for lost time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 24, 2019, 01:25:58 pm
Am I the only one worried that Theo is thinking about the Boston GM opening?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2019, 01:30:09 pm
Larry Lucchino is still involved with the Red Sox, so I wouldn't worry about Theo.  Hoyer might take it though.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 24, 2019, 01:32:42 pm
Am I the only one worried that Theo is thinking about the Boston GM opening?

Probably.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 24, 2019, 01:33:42 pm
Darvish & Hendricks is fine at the top of a rotation. It's everything behind them that scares me.

If you have a couple more guys like them sure, but Lester and Q aren't that.

Finally, from the recent Athletic article on the Cubs pitching lab, this right here is the biggest failure of the Cubs org:

"But organizations like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees have set the standard in player development in recent years and the Cubs are eager to catch up."

What those clubs have done with their pitching, the Cubs should have been in lockstep with, not lagging behind for several years now. That's on Theo, and I hope what we've seen with relievers at the big league level this year is an indication that we're making up for lost time.

The question is how far behind are they.  Completely caught up or caught up the Astros/Yankees from 3 years ago.  That is one reason I think bringing in a guy like Boddy as a pitching consultant could be huge.  Then maybe the Cubs could jump in front of them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 24, 2019, 01:42:25 pm
Craig-if you want to see how relievers were used, BR has innings/appearance matrix for each guy in the Game Log section for each entry. Below is the one for Cishek, as an example.

Regarding Chatwood, think fair to say Maddon was unsure how to use him much of the season. First, he was so bad in 2018, came into the season as a puzzler. Then, Maddon thought of him as a kind of longman requiring quite a few days off between appearances. Never really was used much as a late/close guy and, in retrospect, there’s an argument he should have been used more that way.

Don’t have any real quarrel how Maddon allocated his late/close bullpen innings to what guys. It hurt that Strop became ineffective. Yes, the bullpen underperformed somewhat in that regard but don’t think based on criteria in Rogers piece, pressure or whatever. Probably random, or an extra hit here and there more than expected.

Very excited about Wick. Looked at his Close/late stats and they are phenomenal. Ryan/Wieck/Hultzen might be a very nice group of lefties. Obviously, a better Kimbrel is key. Would like to see Cishek re-signed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=cishest01&t=p&year=2019
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 24, 2019, 01:53:48 pm
Thanks for those details.  Q's/notes:
1.  What is the definition used for close/late?  (I tried to google Fangraphs, Hardball Times, Close and Late, glossary, Clutch, etc., and five minutes of searching I never found a link that defined it.) 
   

From MLB.com. For pitchers, three runs AHEAD, etc., of course.

Late-inning pressure situations are defined as any at-bat in the seventh inning or later where the batter's team trails by three runs or fewer, is tied or is ahead by only one run. If the bases are loaded and the batting team trails by four runs, this also counts as a late-inning pressure situation
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 24, 2019, 02:03:13 pm
In the for what it's worth department

Daniel Descalso in September - 4 at bats, 3 strikeouts
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 24, 2019, 02:29:36 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  1m1 minute ago
Chicago bench coach Mark Loretta suspended for one game and fined an undisclosed amount by MLB for his inappropriate conduct following a Replay Review during Saturday game vs. Cardinals.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 24, 2019, 04:35:22 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  1m1 minute ago
Chicago bench coach Mark Loretta suspended for one game and fined an undisclosed amount by MLB for his inappropriate conduct following a Replay Review during Saturday game vs. Cardinals.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  40m40 minutes ago
Mark Loretta was suspended because he put the umpire review headset on to get an explanation from New York on Saturday. Might be against the rules but that’s kind of funny.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  24m24 minutes ago
He said he started to question the call or what not and they were like ‘who is this?’
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 24, 2019, 08:24:08 pm
Am I the only one worried that Theo is thinking about the Boston GM opening?

LOL.  We should be so lucky.

Theo must go and take Coffee Boy with him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 24, 2019, 09:17:53 pm
Comical the way they are going out this year. Did this official eliminate them? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 24, 2019, 09:21:54 pm
No.  Tomorrow.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 24, 2019, 11:47:42 pm
Cubs are now tied for pick #17, 18, 19 in first round of next year’s draft (with Red Sox and Mets).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dallen7908 on September 25, 2019, 01:03:39 pm
Optimistically, the cubs need 15 coin flips to go their way to win it all, which is one chance in 32768.  By comparison the chance of winning the power ball each time you enter is 1 in 292,201,338.

 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 25, 2019, 01:08:27 pm
based on that, I'm buying WS tickets!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 25, 2019, 03:31:40 pm
Does Joe Maddon hope to return as Cubs manager? "Of course. That's what I signed up for in the beginning. It's always the intention, to stay for a really long time."

Joe Maddon on his future with the Cubs: "We'll make that over the next couple days and move it on from there. But I'm very pragmatic. I'm very optimistic. I'll just leave it with that. I'm very optimistic right now."
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 25, 2019, 05:36:55 pm
At least they just ripped off the band-aid this year and didn't drag it out to an extra regular season game that you just knew they were destined to lose.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 25, 2019, 06:06:00 pm
Entering September the Cubs were listed as 76% chance of the playoffs.  Brewers 12%   Today we're at .1% and Brewers at 99.9%.   Collapse.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 25, 2019, 07:18:19 pm
No question this is going to be one hell of an interesting offseason.  It doesn't seem as if Theo's job is on the line, but if there's no headway next season it surely will be.  I don't think he's interested in the Boston job but Jed Hoyer might be (if Boston themselves is even interested).  It's quite a to-do list:

Seems clear the budgetary limitations are going to carry over going forward, so I don't see Cole as a realistic option with so many holes to fix.  What sort of retool is going to determine what sort of guys get moved, but the hard truth is that apart from Bryant and Contreras, we don't have major-league talent that will fetch us the type of players this broken team needs to contend again.  And with so few real prospects in the minors, giving up guys like Amaya, Hoerner and Marquez with so little reason to suspect the big club is close to breaking through would be foolhardy at best.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 25, 2019, 07:18:50 pm
You have to go all the way back to last season to see a collapse like that.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Tuffy on September 25, 2019, 07:19:52 pm
Entering September the Cubs were listed as 76% chance of the playoffs.  Brewers 12%   Today we're at .1% and Brewers at 99.9%.   Collapse.

In the Cubs' defense, this is the equivalent of a .240 hitter getting a hit.  The odds are against it, but it happens all the time.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 25, 2019, 07:30:28 pm
No question this is going to be one hell of an interesting offseason.  It doesn't seem as if Theo's job is on the line, but if there's no headway next season it surely will be.  I don't think he's interested in the Boston job but Jed Hoyer might be (if Boston themselves is even interested).  It's quite a to-do list:

  • Reshuffle the front office and try to fix the desperately broken pitching development
  • Figure out who the next manager is going to be
  • Decide between another Titanic deck-chair offseason, a full-on '16 Yankees-style retool, or something in between
  • Actually execute whichever one the wheel lands on
Seems clear the budgetary limitations are going to carry over going forward, so I don't see Cole as a realistic option with so many holes to fix.  What sort of retool is going to determine what sort of guys get moved, but the hard truth is that apart from Bryant and Contreras, we don't have major-league talent that will fetch us the type of players this broken team needs to contend again.  And with so few real prospects in the minors, giving up guys like Amaya, Hoerner and Marquez with so little reason to suspect the big club is close to breaking through would be foolhardy at best.

If they're not going to get rid of Theo, there at least has to be a complete revamping of MLB's worst player procurement and development organization.

I don't trust Theo to do that - after all, he was the architect of what we have now - but something has to be done.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 25, 2019, 07:44:32 pm
If they're not going to get rid of Theo, there at least has to be a complete revamping of MLB's worst player procurement and development organization.

I don't trust Theo to do that - after all, he was the architect of what we have now - but something has to be done.

That's why I put it first on the list.

The McLeod move was the first part of that.  There's a lot of buzz that the F.O. is in full-blown panic mode over the disastrous state of their pitching development.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 25, 2019, 08:23:15 pm
If they're not going to get rid of Theo, there at least has to be a complete revamping of MLB's worst player procurement and development organization.

I don't trust Theo to do that - after all, he was the architect of what we have now - but something has to be done.

I see grumpy Jeff is back.  Yeah, Theo was the architect of the team that had the best NL record over a four year period including a World Series championship and two other trips to the League Championship Series. Get rid of the guy.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: method on September 25, 2019, 08:24:47 pm
MLB's worst player procurement and development organization.



What is wrong with the procurement? If you factor in the talent traded away, there is nothing wrong with procurement.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 25, 2019, 08:40:24 pm
Ugh.  You guys need to look at the player procurement and development relative to other organizations.  Ours is not good.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 25, 2019, 10:06:07 pm
Does Joe Maddon hope to return as Cubs manager? "Of course. That's what I signed up for in the beginning. It's always the intention, to stay for a really long time."

Joe Maddon on his future with the Cubs: "We'll make that over the next couple days and move it on from there. But I'm very pragmatic. I'm very optimistic. I'll just leave it with that. I'm very optimistic right now."
Losing 8 in a row at the end of the season should assure you of a new contract, Joe.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 25, 2019, 10:27:04 pm
Hope he likes fish tacos.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 25, 2019, 11:14:47 pm
Epstein...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27702302/epstein-dispels-boston-rumors-focused-cubs
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 26, 2019, 08:27:08 am
As much as I like improving draft position I am rooting for the Cubs to take 2 of 3 from the Cardinals this week so knock them out of the division lead. I had forgotten how smarmy their fans are when they win.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 26, 2019, 12:43:02 pm
I hope we sweep the Cardinals, and I hope the Brewers win out ( I need Scherzer to HAVE to pitch Sunday).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 26, 2019, 01:14:12 pm
The pitching development was revamped when Brendan Sagara was brought in 2018. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 26, 2019, 05:54:23 pm
@PWSullivan
With Cubs out, Maddon isn't playing his "A" lineup in St. Louis, so @Brewers
can start their bitching now: "Of course they're going to b i t c h, and I get it, but quite frankly, there are certain things I really don't give a s h i t about, and that would be one of them."


I'm gonna miss Joe Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: DelMarFan on September 26, 2019, 08:07:54 pm
Quote
I'm gonna miss Joe Maddon.

Amen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 26, 2019, 11:21:47 pm
538 weighs in on the Cubs pitching development woes:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cardinals-develop-young-pitchers-the-cubs-dont-which-team-is-going-to-the-playoffs/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 27, 2019, 08:23:27 am
Bruce Miles does a fantastic job of comparing the 2019 collapse to 1969 and 2004.  The link says it all.

https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20190926/chicago-cubs-collapse-right-down-there-with-worst-in-team-history
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 27, 2019, 09:08:22 am
Tony Andracki

@TonyAndracki23
Jose Quintana finishes 2019 with a 4.68 ERA, which is the second-worst ERA among qualifying NL starters. Only German Marquez (4.76 ERA) has a worse mark.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 27, 2019, 10:02:16 am
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  1h1 hour ago
Headed to St. Louis today for the final series. Top Cubs brass is now all with the team including Theo, Jed and their assistants. Joe Maddon should get some clarity on his future very soon.

It's time for for of the board administrators to create a simple yes or no Bleacher Bums poll. 

Will Joe Maddon be back with the Cubs in 2020?




Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 27, 2019, 10:29:14 am
Or should he be back?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 27, 2019, 10:46:54 am
538 weighs in on the Cubs pitching development woes:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cardinals-develop-young-pitchers-the-cubs-dont-which-team-is-going-to-the-playoffs/

From the article you linked, "The Cubs are well aware of their homegrown pitching deficiency and have taken steps in recent years to improve their draft-and-development capabilities."

Benedict and Sangara where brought in 2018.  The pitching lab was set up, they are trying to get Boddy from Driveline to further help.  They need to keep moving ahead and try leap the Yankees and Astros, but for the first time the Cubs seem to be trying to target the right type of pitchers and the tech to improve them.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 27, 2019, 11:53:47 am
Or should he be back?
I thought about that and another possibility: "Does Joe Maddon want to return?"

Poll - Will Joe Maddon be the Cubs manager in 2020?
Yes, I'm glad he was given a new contract
Yes, but I wish he had been let go
No, sorry to hear him say he'd had enough
No, thanks for 2016 but his usefulness had run out and it was time for a change
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on September 27, 2019, 01:09:23 pm
In the for what it's worth department

Daniel Descalso in September - 4 at bats, 3 strikeouts
I forgot he was still on the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 27, 2019, 01:18:50 pm
Tony Andracki

@TonyAndracki23
Jose Quintana finishes 2019 with a 4.68 ERA, which is the second-worst ERA among qualifying NL starters. Only German Marquez (4.76 ERA) has a worse mark.

Len pointed out on the broadcast that there are only 33 NL starters who meet qualifying standards. MLB average ERA for all starters is 4.54. So, Q’s ERA is basically major league average.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 27, 2019, 01:49:50 pm
Ken Rosenthal says its a forgone conclusion that Maddon is gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 27, 2019, 02:06:38 pm
They can do that without exit interviews?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 27, 2019, 03:02:04 pm
Am I misremembering, or do I recall some comments from newly hired Theo about staying for "about ten years"?  I didn't think about it to much at the time, so I don't remember the nuance now.  1.  I'm not sure whether that was a perspective on general principle, that if an executive stays at a position (whether baseball or otherwise), that you just lose freshness?  2.  Or whether he thought that's about how long it would take to do a full makeover and get the job done, of establishing the Cubs as a revenue powerhouse and an every-year-contender like Yankees, Boston, and the Dodgers are?  3.  Or whether he thought that he'd just personally be ready for something new by then, would spend his 50's and 60's doing something other than leading a baseball organization?  I wish I could listen to that again. 

I bring this up because while Theo's not at 10 years left, I wonder how much commitment he's got left?  Indefinitely long, and enough to attack another rebuilt?  Or not long, and if the sun is setting on this group, he's ready himself to start fresh but somewhere else?  Or not long, and kind of urgent to pursue Nowacrat win-now chances for whatever years he's got left with the Cubs? 

Last winter he seemed much more interested in domestic abuse than in any questions about the actual baseball team and on-field wins and losses.  I kinda wonder whether he might want to transition into something more socially important than winning baseball games? 

I ask these weird question, because I wonder how much "Re-Buildican" patience he's likely to have?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 27, 2019, 03:04:35 pm
1.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 27, 2019, 03:34:15 pm
Am I misremembering, or do I recall some comments from newly hired Theo about staying for "about ten years"?  I didn't think about it to much at the time, so I don't remember the nuance now.  1.  I'm not sure whether that was a perspective on general principle, that if an executive stays at a position (whether baseball or otherwise), that you just lose freshness?  2.  Or whether he thought that's about how long it would take to do a full makeover and get the job done, of establishing the Cubs as a revenue powerhouse and an every-year-contender like Yankees, Boston, and the Dodgers are?  3.  Or whether he thought that he'd just personally be ready for something new by then, would spend his 50's and 60's doing something other than leading a baseball organization?  I wish I could listen to that again. 

I bring this up because while Theo's not at 10 years left, I wonder how much commitment he's got left?  Indefinitely long, and enough to attack another rebuilt?  Or not long, and if the sun is setting on this group, he's ready himself to start fresh but somewhere else?  Or not long, and kind of urgent to pursue Nowacrat win-now chances for whatever years he's got left with the Cubs? 

Last winter he seemed much more interested in domestic abuse than in any questions about the actual baseball team and on-field wins and losses.  I kinda wonder whether he might want to transition into something more socially important than winning baseball games? 

I ask these weird question, because I wonder how much "Re-Buildican" patience he's likely to have?

Theo was just asked about this during his interview on The Score this week.

Scroll down a bit on this link.

https://670thescore.radio.com/cubs-theo-epstein-joe-maddon-should-be-revered-as-legend
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 27, 2019, 03:38:39 pm
When Epstein moved from the Red Sox to the Cubs in October of 2011 after the Red Sox suffered a historic September collapse and fired manager Terry Francona, he explained his decision to leave his dream job in an op-ed for The Globe.

“Football legend Bill Walsh used to say that coaches and executives should seek change after 10 years with the same team,” Epstein wrote. “The theory is that both the individual and the organization benefit from a change after so much time together. The executive gets rebirth and the energy that comes with a new challenge; the organization gets a fresh perspective, and the chance for true change that comes with new leadership. This idea resonated with me.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 27, 2019, 04:25:50 pm
Last winter he seemed much more interested in domestic abuse than in any questions about the actual baseball team and on-field wins and losses.  I kinda wonder whether he might want to transition into something more socially important than winning baseball games? 

I ask these weird question, because I wonder how much "Re-Buildican" patience he's likely to have?

Others have confirmed Theo's comments and their meaning.

Meanwhile, I'm curious what caused you to suggest that "Last winter he seemed much more interested in domestic abuse than in any questions about the actual baseball team and on-field wins and losses." I am frankly astonished by this claim, for which I see no evidence whatsoever. 

I guess it was inevitable that some fans would sour on Theo (even after he took a mediocre team and turned it into the team with the best record in the NL over a four year period, along with a World Series championship, four straight years to the playoffs, three of them trips to the NLCS).  But to suggest he's somehow lost interest in winning is, frankly a little over the top.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 27, 2019, 05:43:38 pm
Ron, that was too flip a comment, I apologize.  But yes, it was my impression over the winter.  I'm not in Chicago, so I probably miss a lot of interviews and media stuff, if somebody here doesn't post a link.  So my impression may be way off.  There was the talk the week after the season about analyzing things, shaking things up, and motivating guys to play with more urgency.  But after that, I recall very little baseball talk from Theo in his press conferences.  Or at least baseball player talk. 

In retrospect, that's kind of understandable.  Other than the decision to re-sign Hamels, he didn't have much baseball to discuss.  There were Harper denials; the Descalzo signing; and later on Cedeno and Brach.  No hot trade rumors, either.  Other than Descalzo being added and Baez moving to SS, all the status-quo players were all returning to their same roles; same rotation, same starting lineup, same bullpen personnel pretty much. 

So if 98% of media questions were either Russell-related or Harper-related, it's not Theo's fault that his public comments mostly addressed what the media was asking him to comment upon; and it's probably little surprise that he didn't talk much about baseball players or how the team was improving itself to get to the World Series. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 27, 2019, 05:47:16 pm
Since the party line was that the club was topped out meant there wasn't much else to discuss.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 27, 2019, 06:11:46 pm
craig - Theo talked repeatedly about the failures of the 2018 season, about his meetings with players about their perspectives of went wrong and the commitment of all concerned to approach the season with greater "urgency" etc.  Theo has always avoided discussing the existence or status of discussions about trades or free agency.  So the relative absence of "news" about what Theo was or was not doing outside of internal efforts to improve performance was inevitable, and nothing out of the ordinary.

There was a lot of journalistic and fan interest in Addison Russell's status with the club, and Theo went into great detail about how the Cubs were dealing with Russell's status, in order to try to make clear that the team was taking his actions seriously and also as an explanation of how they hoped to address not only how Russell might improve as a person, but also how the organization could play some role in this issue which has been all too frequent in professional sports.  The seriousness and thoughtfulness Theo applied to this subject is not uncharacteristic of how he approaches any problem.

Theo is quite capable of multi-tasking. The notion that his attention to the domestic violence subject, due to Russell's behavior, somehow distracted him from his attention to baseball issues suggests a lack of understanding of Theo Epstein's abilities and priorities.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 27, 2019, 06:13:04 pm
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  21m21 minutes ago
Darvish reiterated what he told the Tribune on Wednesday, that he’s unlikely to opt out of contract
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 27, 2019, 06:15:10 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  24m24 minutes ago
Asked about the ability to opt out of his contract and become a free-agent, Darvish said he hasn’t made a decision yet. Needs to talk to his family and agent first. But said he thinks he’ll be back. His kids love “the Cubbies” and Yu said the Cubs are “perfect” for him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 27, 2019, 06:26:37 pm
There was a lot of feeling that the brass was ready to move on from Maddon after '18, and that going into the season with him as a lame duck was a bad idea.  I don't think anything we saw this year discredits that notion.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 27, 2019, 06:53:28 pm
When Epstein moved from the Red Sox to the Cubs in October of 2011 after the Red Sox suffered a historic September collapse and fired manager Terry Francona, he explained his decision to leave his dream job in an op-ed for The Globe.

“Football legend Bill Walsh used to say that coaches and executives should seek change after 10 years with the same team,” Epstein wrote. “The theory is that both the individual and the organization benefit from a change after so much time together. The executive gets rebirth and the energy that comes with a new challenge; the organization gets a fresh perspective, and the chance for true change that comes with new leadership. This idea resonated with me.

Thanks, Dave. 

So, he's 8 years in.  Two more to go? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 27, 2019, 06:56:06 pm
We're not lucky enough to have Darvish opt out.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 27, 2019, 07:52:57 pm
Thanks, Dave. 

So, he's 8 years in.  Two more to go? 

His contract runs through the 2021 season, through which the Cubs have control over Bryant, Baez, Rizzo et al.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 27, 2019, 08:10:44 pm
Thread:

https://twitter.com/SandRaider25/status/1177747547110158336
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 27, 2019, 08:29:04 pm
Gotta trade somebody if you wanna fix what's broke.  Take everybody with value off the table and it's just Groundhog Day playing out again.  Theo getting rid of the manager isn't gonna be a fix-all any more than Joe getting rid of his coaches annually has been.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 27, 2019, 08:30:52 pm
The first thing that needs to happen is to get rid of Theo.  If that doesn't happen, anything else is window dressing.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 27, 2019, 09:09:39 pm
Yeah, that's not gonna happen.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Robb on September 27, 2019, 09:11:47 pm
I never know if you are serious Jeff. But I do not want to see Theo leave. Not even in two years. It's been a long time since the Cub's front office was run by smart people. I believe they are already fixing what is broken in minors. I trust Theo to fix this team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 27, 2019, 11:14:10 pm
I don't think Theo is going anywhere, nor should he be.  But the failures of the organization are flowing uphill, and many moves he's made in the last thee-plus years have worked out badly - he has to own that.  First Joe (repeatedly) changed the coaches.  Now Theo is going to change the manager.  If things are still off the rails, there's only one place to go from there - PBO's can't throw their coffee boys under the bus, so trying to scapegoat Hoyer won't cut it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 27, 2019, 11:34:55 pm
Of course I’m not comparing these guys but Ian Happ has real trade value going into the off-season.

Happ .850 OPS

Baez .847 OPS

Just note this because Happ has offensive potential and if Cubs shop him, there will be interest. Obviously, he’s not in the Baez ballpark.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 28, 2019, 08:05:52 am
Maybe Happ and his 25% K% would look kinda nice in CF...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 28, 2019, 08:32:51 am
Maybe Happ and his 25% K% would look kinda nice in CF...
Down from 36.1% in 2018.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 28, 2019, 09:14:06 am
Sounds a little Baez-ish...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 28, 2019, 09:45:48 am
....Theo is quite capable of multi-tasking. The notion that his attention to the domestic violence subject, due to Russell's behavior, somehow distracted him from his attention to baseball issues suggests a lack of understanding of Theo Epstein's abilities and priorities.

Ron, I wasn't suggesting that Theo didn't do the best that he could for the team.  What I'm wondering is whether at this point in his life, he might not just be more fired up to go in a different direction?  Every good, sincere man wants to make a positive impact for good in the world; I'm just wondering whether perhaps he might be reaching a point where he'd like to try doing so in a different way?  Perhaps he sees being president of a much-loved baseball organization as his best platform, of course, and nothing else could be as fulfilling.  But he's an experienced exec who's been doing that job for over 20 years; maybe he'd like and would be challenged by a new and somewhat different challenge, I don't know. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 28, 2019, 09:54:38 am
I could also imagine last winter being a somewhat limiting, frustrating landscape for him as a smart, creative guy.  What freedom did he have within which to exercise good decision-making and analysis and feel like he could really make an impact on the team?  I suspect much less than in some earlier days. 
1.  With CBA boxing in budgetary allocations for draft and international, there's no space for Theo to make creative resource-allocation decisions in those areas; nor to be spending any spare minute watching film on 17-year-old Dominicans or Minnesotans who might be worth investing in super-slotting without requiring high-round selection. 
2.  Probably lots less to think about trades-wise last winter, too.  With the rotation set and the lineup set other than Russell's spot, and also with negligible surplus or minor-league talent, there probably wasn't much opportunity to make clever and creative trades, unlike back in the Feldman-Maholm-Dempster-Ian Stewart era.  During the building phase, I suspect you're always thinking and digging for possible upside guys.  Where's the next Arrieta?  Might Ian Steward be the next David Ortiz?
3. With budget maxed out, very little scope to sign guys or think about doing so.  Harder to let your mind explore creative ideas when you don't really have any discretionary resources to work with. 

So, to some degree, I wonder whether last winter whether Theo might hypothetically feel stifled and unfulfilled in the baseball job?  (I'm probably just imaging myself in his shoes....)  What am I excited to get up and accomplish today?  If I put in my 55-hour week, how much progress will I be able to make on improving my team?  I'd have felt awfully straight-jacketed last winter, if I was him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 28, 2019, 09:57:30 am
So, to some degree, I wonder whether last winter whether Theo might hypothetically feel stifled and unfulfilled in the baseball job?  (I'm probably just imaging myself in his shoes....) What am I excited to get up and accomplish today?  If I put in my 55-hour week, how much progress will I be able to make on improving my team?  I'd have felt awfully straight-jacketed last winter, if I was him.


craig - I think you've hit on something there.  Don't think it's wise to try to get inside Theo's head to this degree.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 28, 2019, 10:12:42 am
Of course I’m not comparing these guys but Ian Happ has real trade value going into the off-season.

Happ .850 OPS

Baez .847 OPS

Just note this because Happ has offensive potential and if Cubs shop him, there will be interest. Obviously, he’s not in the Baez ballpark.

I've mentioned this before, but a while back, after Happ came back to the club from Iowa, Theo was complaining about the team's problems with their approaches at the plate, but he singled out Happ and Schwarber as guys who had done a good job of making necessary adjustments.

I'm not sure how seriously to take that comment, but it does make me wonder whether both have raised their stock with Theo (Schwarber has always been a favorite of Theo anyway, I think). 

Someone shared a comparison between Schwarber and Castellanos recently that showed in the second half Schwarber was at least as good an overall player as Castellanos, and of course much cheaper.  I really cannot imagine the Cubs entering 2020 with Schwarber and Castellanos at the corners on a regular basis, with Heyward in CF, given that the Cubs' woeful defense is another thing Theo has specifically called out.  I expect Almora to remain on the roster because of his defense, but I don't think anyone expects him to be the regular CF next season.

I also have trouble seeing the Cubs open the season with Happ as a regular CF with either Schwarber or Castellanos as a regular LF.  However I can see Happ moving around like Baez has over previous seasons.

I increasingly find it easy to imagine the Cubs very solicitous of offers for Bryant.  And even Castillo, depending on how they evaluate Caratini as a primary catcher.  Both should be extremely attractive to other clubs, and Bryant has had a very error prone season (as has Contreras).



Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 28, 2019, 10:22:36 am
In order for Happ to have value as a super-utility player he has to be at least decent defensively at more than one position. Right now he’s somewhere between below-average and awful everywhere he plays.

Personally I think it’s a wishful fantasy that Happ has any real trade value. But if he does, this is the time to cash in on it.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 28, 2019, 11:16:49 am
I wonder if some common assumptions about will end up incorrect.  I've seen three common progressive premises:
1.  "Gotta make changes"
2.  Often that's progressed to "gotta make MAJOR changes". 
3.  And often that's progressed another step to "gotta make MAJOR changes IN THE LINEUP". 

I want to question some of those, particularly the 3rd.  Several thoughts or questions that I ask myself, and you friends! 

1.  Can a team perhaps change by small increments, one player at a time?  Is it possible that some incremental changes will be what happens, and that will work well? 
2.  How "big" are "BIG CHANGES"?   For example, lineup-wise, suppose six starters come back,  but two-three change, would that be too few to qualify? 
*If you come right back with Contreras, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, and Heyward? 
*But drop Castellanos, and replace 2B and CF?   (2B was Descalzo/Zobrist/Bote when the season began, Russell/Bote for most of the summer; CF was Almora for the first half of the year, Heyward for the 2nd?) 
3.  How much "change" must come externally versus internally. 
*Schwarber:  Ron and P2 have noted how strong Schwarber's 2nd-half has been, and reb has noted (as I'd noted before 2018 season too...) that Schwarber with a .250 batting average is a useful bat. 
*Happ:  I've noted the same for Happ, and reb and Ron have noted that with his recent hot run, he's got his average up over .250, and with it his OPS has moved beyond Baez to the .850 mark.  Not bad. 
*Hoerner:  He doesn't "look" like the other Cub hitters.  Is it possible that he'll Camp Colvin more strength, and will just keep improving as a hitter, and will end up being a good player immediately? 
*Ben may be the last Russell believer, but he still believes even Russell might still be ready to emerge as a good hitter!  I expect Theo might be willing to turn the page there, but who knows? 
*So might Theo move forward hoping that internal improvement will help a lot?  Perhaps the best move is to bet that the .250-average versions of Schwarber and Happ will come back, and that this wasn't really "career year" fluke for both of them?  And to project that Hoerner will not only be able to sustain his batting average, but will add more power and walks as well? 
4.  Bench:  1178 PA went to Almora, Russell, Descalzo, Zobrist, Kemp, Garcia, and Lucroy, and another 350 to Bote.  Bote led the team in errors. Might there be some bench adjustments that might help?  (Part of the bench issue, I think, involved compromising some defense to keep the lineup afloat.)   

In terms of simple league offensive stats, the Cubs are top-5 in most of them, other than batting average.  Runs, HR's, OPS, OBP, TB, top-5-ish in all of those.  Yes, obviously we're bad situationally; our speed is terrible; our defense is bad.  Soif the offense is supposed to be the strength of the team, and it's 5th in runs, not surprising that other weaker aspects of the team might naturally make you a 7th/8th-place team overall. 

I guess I'm wondering whether Theo might consider dumping Castellanos, reshaping 2B and CF, reshaping the bench, but might otherwise come right back with the core of Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Castillo, Heyward, and Schwarber?  And NOT do a BIG CHANGE where one of those guys gets moved? 

I would also note that may not be all Theo's decision; it's one thing to say "I'd like to reshape the roster by transacting X into fair value but with a different profile".  But getting some other team to offer what Theo expects as fair value may not happen?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 28, 2019, 11:51:47 am
Bluejay has often noted that for all the talk we have about the bipolar offense, that the offense scores enough, and that it's the pitching that's more at issue. 

Point:  Suppose the Cubs keep their 6 main core position guys, and the 3 rotation guys.  But reshape the following:
1.  2B
2.  CF
3.  Bench
4.  Rotation starter (Hamels)
5.  Rotation starter (Q)
6.  Bullpen

To me that would seem like LOTS of change, enough such that if the changes are effective you could immediately be right back into wild-card contention or more.   Even without trading any of the 9 main core starters.  Between 8 positions and 5 rotation guys, that's 13 starters.  If you keep 9 but change 4, that's some pretty significant change. 

Several thoughts or questions that I ask myself, and you friends, pitching-wise!

How "big" are "BIG CHANGES"?   For example, rotation-wise, suppose three starters come back,  but two change, would that be too few to qualify as "BIG" change?
*If you come right back with Darvish, Hendricks, and Lester?
*But drop Q, and replace Hamels? 

How much "change" must come externally versus internally?
*Darvish has 3.98 ERA and 4.22 FIP; but 2nd-half guy looks like he could be better.  Might he be way better?

*Most of the board loves Q and is sold on his value at $10.5 for 4.68-ERA Q.  His FIP was 3.86.  So was his disastrous end-of-year an injury or mechanical fluke; they'll film-analyze and pitch-lab fix; and instead of getting a year older and even worse, he'll adjust some things and bounce right back and post a 4.2-ERA next year? 

*Lester will be another year older and probably worse; but is it possible that'll come up with some new trick, and end up being no worse next year than this? 

*Chatwood and Mills have been almost our best starters in very limited work; is it possible that you could replace Hamels or Q with internal guys like that without committing an extra million, and they might actually outperform Q's 4.68 or Hamels 4.22?  Get equal or better performance, while freeing up $20-30 for other use? 

*Alzolay, Abbott, Rea, is it possible that guys like this might emerge as perfectly average, and provide just as good 4.22-4.68-ERA type work that Q, Hamels, and Lester provide, except for <$1 instead of for $10.5, $20, and $27.5? 

*Lester:  He's got ≥$30 million still due, and he's a super crafty gutsy professional overachiever.  But *IF* he falls off the cliff, his contract does not necessitate that he stay in the rotation.  *IF* by June his arm is already dead and he's hurting the team with bad and pen-wearying short starts, you wouldn't be obligated to give him 30 starts.  In other words, I think it's reasonable to hope that he might not be a lot worse than this year; but even if he is, that the damage could be limited and shouldn't need to be allowed to continue all year.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 28, 2019, 12:06:55 pm
Craig, one thing they have to do is get younger on the pitching staff.

Mills and Underwood will both be out of options next spring.  I hope they get every opportunity to win a spot.  Not like usual when a salaried veteran is in place and the "competition" is not real.

Even though Alzolay will have an option remaining next year, he'll be 25 at the start of the season.  They need to start letting him develop in the major leagues.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 28, 2019, 12:43:13 pm
Craig, on major trades, I think they are looking for different kind of hitters, guys who get the bat on the ball in crucial situations.  I don't think we strike out too much, we strike out to much when we need runners advanced or scored.  I also think that the FO may be conscious of dumping some salary and future salary and most of that is in the big guns.  This past winter we saw extensions given to Bote and Hendricks...gotta wonder if that was to make one or both more attractive in a trade.  On players like Happ, Schwarber, and Almora  we may underestimate their value to another team.   An AL team would take Schwarber in a heartbeat.  Problem is, what will they give for him.

They have to evaluate if Kimbel just was a victim of his own holdout or has he really lost it?   
Zobrist will probably retire, especially if Joe is let go.
If Joe is gone and the bullpen is handled better, we might be surprised that it can function better.  Cishek was abused early.  Wick and Wieck look usable. 
Let Hamels go.  Look for a trade with Oakland for a young starter like PED Montas or Mengden.
If we can trade some money savings, go after Cole and Rendon.   Hope Darvish stays; we haven't got our money's worth there yet.
Keeping or dumping Russell will not make a helluvalot of difference either way.
Castellanos made a difference for awhile because he was a different style of hitter.  We will miss his doubles.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 28, 2019, 01:23:42 pm
I wonder if it might not actually be best to NOT spend much. 

Target changes:
1.  CF.  Easier said than done.  But where do you find CF help? 

2.  2b:  Hoerner complicates this.  *If* management hopes that he's going to emerge as a quality long-term starter there, do you want to invest a bunch of resources in acquiring a long-term solution there?  I suspect that *IF* they go outside to strengthen and reshape 2B, it will need to be either a short-term, limited-expense commitment; and/or a guy who can have long-term utility value, rather than needing to be 2b. Is there really anybody available who's actually GOOD, and will elevate the team? 

(reb, this is where your guy Merrifield seems like an ideal 2B/CF/utility fit, at low salary.  The fit makes sense; does the price?) 

3.  Rotation value:  I'd love a GOOD starter, better than Q-esque caliber.  But are there really any, and any that come at a practical price? 

What I'm wondering is, whether Theo may end up holding his ammo, and really NOT making any major improvements to the roster.  Bring back old Q; and just wing it for Hamels spot between Chatwood, Mills, Rea, Alzolay, and Abbott.  Maybe you'll be happily surprised and be right in the division/wildcard mix?  And you don't need to do anything there?  Or perhaps mid-season you can make a trade for an upgrade?  Or if it's June and you know things aren't clicking, maybe you go into "sell" mode and hope Q or Lester are looking trustworthy-veterany enough to be able to trade and clear a little of their money and give some up-and-comer a better look? 

Lineup, maybe you just kinda wing it at 2B with Hoerner, Bote, and whatever veteran roster-fill guy you pick up?  (Maybe reb gets his guy; but the Cubs have a long and varied tradition of Descalzo-Grudzialanek-DeShields-DeRosa-Zobrist caliber vet 2B roster-fill types..  Not sure who or what, or perhaps some other younger AAAA type guy who's kind of been a prospect but didn't click during previous window of opportunity; maybe you give him a shot to compete with Hoerner and Bote......  Or maybe you release Russell, then re-sign him vet-minimum to a non-roster deal, and see if Ben can turn him into an asset for free!)  Maybe you get some CF who's not a high-end guy, necessarily, but might possible be decent?  (Maybe reb gets his guy Merrifield; or I'm thinking along the lines of John Jay, or in days past guys like Lance Johnson or Curtis Goodwin or Damon Buford or Denorfia or David DeJesus....)  Maybe the guy plays pretty well for cheap and is a good value; maybe Heyward ends up playing their a bunch; maybe by June you realize you're in contention and you've got cash to spare, and you trade for somebody good; maybe by July you know it's not happening and you're in trade mode anyway... 

For sure I'd like to get one better-than-Buford/Goodwin/Descalzo bat between CF/2B, and I'd really like to get one better-than-Q/Mills guy for rotation.  But you can't always get what you want! 

I'd not object to letting this be kind of a "bridge" season, after which none of Lester/Q/Hamels is on full-salary (Lester will still cost a bundle in 2021, but that's water under the bridge....).  One more year to see where Schwarber and Happ go, whether Hoerner is going to be a primary starter or not, and to see whether Abbott or Alzolay are going to be factors at all.  If you get some good answers, you've got a shot to compete for a wildcard or division spot.  If not, you'll have more discretionary cash to work with, and perhaps a year out some minor league talent will start to be percolating up the system and getting closer?  Maybe a year out, Davis and Brailyn will look like future building-block guys, or something? 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 28, 2019, 02:20:22 pm
MLB Trade Rumors had a post on Jonathan Villar yesterday, and they pointed out the Cubs had some interest in him at the deadline. I wonder if he might be a guy they'll revisit as a stopgap at second base going into his last arb year. He's been really good this year, but he's been inconsistent enough in his career that he'll still probably be reasonably priced in a trade and salary.

For CF, there might be some options on the trade market. The Red Sox seem like they're willing to at least listen on any of their OFs. The Pirates should pick up Marte's option and then aggressively try to sell. It also seems likely that the Braves will make Inciarte available--Acuna is capable of playing CF, and their top two prospects are better defensive outfielders who are currently in AAA.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 28, 2019, 04:26:45 pm
Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  4m4 minutes ago
Maddon to address reporters soon. Last few days he’s engaged with his players about the finality of his situation. Good, emotional talks is how a couple put it. Only thing left is for the Cubs or him to make it official.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 28, 2019, 05:07:42 pm
Joe is done.  New manager will be a former Cubs catcher.  I'm just not sure which one yet.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 28, 2019, 05:15:42 pm
You're probably right.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 28, 2019, 05:19:15 pm
Theo and Maddon are meeting after tonight’s game according to all the beat writers, so we may get an official announcement that Joe is gone as soon as late tonight.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Dave23 on September 28, 2019, 05:54:05 pm
Jim Essian!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 28, 2019, 06:07:28 pm
I heard Mike Matheny!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 28, 2019, 06:24:15 pm
Todd Hundley.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 28, 2019, 07:12:24 pm
Since the party line was that the club was topped out meant there wasn't much else to discuss.

Interesting comment.  I assume you are talking about their claiming to be near or at the salary cap, and are implying that either it is not true, or not the actual reason for their failing to sign top free agents.  Why do you feel that?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 28, 2019, 07:50:36 pm
Did Mike Matheny play for us?  I don’t remember that. Hmmmmm.

I can likely narrow this down to 2. One would be expensive and experienced. The other would be a first time manager and far less expensive.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 28, 2019, 07:51:45 pm
Don’t sleep on John Farrell.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 28, 2019, 07:58:06 pm
The only thing we know for certain about the next Cubs manager is that it's going to be the wrong selection.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 28, 2019, 08:07:22 pm
I think Girardi might provide the change in attitude/focus that the Cubs need. But he's expensive and he's going to be the same as Joe in that he'll be able to just do what he wants. I think the front office wants more control of the next manager.

And I worry that Ross is too close to just being one of the guys from the Maddon era. I worry that it'll be too easy to just continue as things are now, which makes changing managers kind of pointless.

I hope they at least interview a few candidates other than those two.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 28, 2019, 08:12:05 pm
Matheny did not.  He will manage either KC or the Giants.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 28, 2019, 08:25:23 pm
DeRosa gets some mentions, too. That seems a bit out there to me but oftimes rumors are rumors for a reason.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 28, 2019, 08:33:52 pm
It's really bad that I trust Theo so little to hire a new manager that I want him to keep Joe, who I think is a bad manager.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JeffH on September 28, 2019, 09:33:31 pm
Cubs organization is altogether broken and needs a complete revamping from top to bottom.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 28, 2019, 10:13:09 pm
F'n hilarious.

Some changes yes but all together broken?

You surely werent a Cub fan before Maddon then.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 28, 2019, 11:41:14 pm
Any announcement on Joe?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 29, 2019, 12:23:39 am
Nothing official, but every reporter thinks he is gone.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bluebufoon on September 29, 2019, 06:34:08 am
If as expected Maddon isn’t retained— the Cubs have to hire Girardi over Ross. The contrast in their managerial resumes/ experience makes this any easy pick
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2019, 08:30:39 am
I get some hesitancy about Girardi, but the general tone of derision towards him here puzzles me some.  He's not as anti-sabermetrics as he's made out to be - NY writers will attest to that - and his track record under often difficult circumstances has generally been very good.  538 rated him as one of the top 3 managers in the game at bullpen management.  In short - he's good.

Now, if Theo wants a guy who won't bring too much of his own set ways to the job, obviously someone like Ross or DeRosa - or even Loretta, though I don't see that happening - makes more sense, as they'd all be rookies.  We assume that's what Theo wants, but maybe what he wants isn't a manager with no ideas, but one with different ideas than Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 29, 2019, 08:40:55 am
Maybe the $5 million that Girardi would require would be better spent on the team?

I think the Cubs needed Maddon in 2016, now I don’t know that it is an important as fixing holes on the team.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2019, 08:59:25 am
It’s absurd that an extra million or two in manager salary - which counts nothing towards any cap or tax penalties - should even be a remote consideration.  It’s an insult to every fan, if true.

I don’t know if Theo believes Girardi is the right guy to turn around what’s clearly a dysfunctional team.  I don’t know if I believe it.  But if he does and he doesn’t hire him because of salary, that would be a travesty.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: brjones on September 29, 2019, 11:59:23 am
Maddon is officially out. Theo is talking to the media now.

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Joe and Theo got together last night, split a bottle of wine in Theo's hotel room and came to the conclusion that their five year run together had come to an end.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 29, 2019, 12:06:53 pm
I'm shocked.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: JR on September 29, 2019, 12:26:01 pm
Pretty sad to see him go, but it was time for a change.

Thanks for leading us to the World Series title, Joe.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 29, 2019, 12:33:20 pm
Jon Lester gets it right on Joe Maddon (before today's announcement):

“I can’t say enough positives about what Joe’s done, just flat out for this organization,” said pitcher Jon Lester, who signed his six-year, $155 million deal a month after the Cubs landed Maddon. “Up until here recently this year, we led MLB in wins, and that’s a testament to him. We broke a 108-year curse or whatever you want to call it.

"He should be revered as a legend in this town for a long, long time for what he did for this organization. When you talk about a rebuild, when you talk about signings, he was the first guy to write his name on that paper. He believed. Him believing made other people believe. What he’s done, not only for this organization, but for this city, was huge.”
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 29, 2019, 12:38:11 pm
Whomever replaces Joe is going to have a tough row to hoe, following a legend as well as being expected to right the ship after such a disappointing season. Hope Theo chooses well and the new guy is up to the task.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 29, 2019, 12:44:47 pm
I tell my wife all the time that I dont know what its like until I go through it but Ive never been through a situation where people who were happy decide to part ways.

There was a reason why they decided to part ways but they're handling it with class and deciding not to admit why.

If they both agree that its time then who am I as a fan to say different?

Im a Cub fan.

Im not a fan of any individual player and I tell my wife never to fall in love with a coach because they'll leave you.

Ive been through all of this before and know how it works but it still doesnt feel right.

God bless the man who succeeds Joe because Im certain he wont be as successful as he was.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: guest61 on September 29, 2019, 12:50:10 pm
"Its tough for me and the guys. He's a living legend. I love him like a dad."--Anthony Rizzo
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 29, 2019, 01:43:29 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  54m54 minutes ago
Maddon gathered the team at their hotel after Friday’s game. That is when he informed the players that he would not be coming back.

I have to question the accuracy of that tweet.  Not a single player leaking the news between Friday night and Sunday morning seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 29, 2019, 02:01:17 pm
Maybe it really did happen that way

Jesse Rogers   @ESPNChiCubs  6m6 minutes ago
Yesterday I tweeted Maddon had been saying goodbye to players for a couple days....team got together with him Fri night....then Theo and front office last night.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on September 29, 2019, 02:31:39 pm
Joe is an eternally positive class act!  Theo may not always be positive, but he's a class act, too!

We've been very fortunate to have each of those guys on our side the past 5 years!
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 29, 2019, 02:40:33 pm
Joe is an eternally positive class act!  Theo may not always be positive

I agree that we have been fortunate to have both of them.  But I don't understand what you mean when say that Theo may not always be positive.  He has been occasionally critical of the team, but that criticism has never been cheap shots, and almost universally believed to be valid.

I spent too many years watching Wrigley, who never really gave a damb if they won or lost.  I don't see the equal of Epstein out there, woth the possible exception of Dumbrowski.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2019, 04:19:09 pm
Whomever replaces Joe is going to have a tough row to hoe, following a legend as well as being expected to right the ship after such a disappointing season. Hope Theo chooses well and the new guy is up to the task.

That's one reason someone like Farrell or Girardi - who's been through the wringer and dealt with a tough media market - might make more sense than a rookie manager.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: chgojhawk on September 29, 2019, 04:50:37 pm
Money will be irrelevant with regard to the next manager.

The team isn’t hurting for money. The concern is/was the luxury tax penalties for multiple years over the threshold.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on September 29, 2019, 04:58:14 pm
Money will be irrelevant with regard to the next manager.

The team isn’t hurting for money. The concern is/was the luxury tax penalties for multiple years over the threshold.

And, those concerns are BS. They have the money and since everyone else is treating this like a salary cap, it’s something they can exploit. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: mO on September 29, 2019, 05:13:15 pm
*sigh* Glad that's over...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2019, 05:31:30 pm
Maddon did what he was brought here to do, did it his way, but it was time for everybody to move on.  No shame in it for anybody concerned.  Thanks for the memories and good luck in San Diego.

This is obviously a beyond huge offseason for the Cubs.  The franchise is in transition in every sense and things could go in any number of directions.  Making a choice on a new manager isn’t going to be easy even on philosophical grounds, and that’s the easy part for Theo.  The roster is a mess, the farm is still mostly barren and there are no easy fixes for him.  It’s time for him to earn his money and show the genius who built the WS winners and curse busters in Boston and Chicago is still in there.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 29, 2019, 06:54:00 pm
And, those concerns are BS. They have the money and since everyone else is treating this like a salary cap, it’s something they can exploit. 

You are famous for stupid statements, but that one is near the top.  Can you explain why concerns over the salary cap are BS.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 29, 2019, 07:21:12 pm
Tyler Chatwood's last appearance - ⅓ of an inning on September 20.

There must have been an injury we weren't told about.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Jack Birdbath on September 29, 2019, 07:35:06 pm
You are famous for stupid statements, but that one is near the top.  Can you explain why concerns over the salary cap are BS.

Because they have more than enough money that going past the cap and paying the penalty should not be an issue.  It’s a fictitious cap.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 29, 2019, 07:41:19 pm
The penalties are not only financial, but also restrict draft choices and IFA money for periods of time.  It if were a fictitious cap, it wouldn't work as well as it does, even for franchises such as the Dodgers and Yankees, who have almost twice the revenue as the Cubs.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Reb on September 29, 2019, 08:44:46 pm
The penalties are not only financial, but also restrict draft choices and IFA money for periods of time.  It if were a fictitious cap, it wouldn't work as well as it does, even for franchises such as the Dodgers and Yankees, who have almost twice the revenue as the Cubs.

Here’s a specific example of penalties.

Cubs will have the #16 overall draft pick next year.

According to Roster Resource, Cubs spent about $34 M over the lowest CBT threshold. Had Cubs spent $6 additional and been $40 over the threshold, that #16 pick would instead become the #26 pick—-moving back 10 spots in the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 29, 2019, 09:47:19 pm
Multiple Cub players already endorsing the idea of David Ross as the next manager: Rizzo, Baez, Bryant and Lester (so far). 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2019, 10:05:04 pm
Multiple Cub players already endorsing the idea of David Ross as the next manager: Rizzo, Baez, Bryant and Lester (so far). 

I think concerns over his being too close to those guys are legit, though certainly not disqualifying.  Not everyone can make the transition from peer to boss, and you worry that guys who weren't here when Ross was playing will feel they aren't getting equal treatment.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: ben on September 30, 2019, 07:40:11 am
Maddon to Pirates?
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 30, 2019, 08:09:04 am
Angels or Pads for sure.  Outside chance Giants.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 30, 2019, 08:52:41 am
Joe and Carl Edwards together again is my guess.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 30, 2019, 08:53:07 am
This belongs in the Cubs in '20 thread, but there isn't one yet.  Sahadev Sharma thinks David Ross is the "odds on favorite" to be the Cubs manager next season.

https://theathletic.com/1252171/2019/09/30/its-going-to-be-a-zoo-david-ross-seems-like-the-obvious-choice-to-replace-joe-maddon-as-cubs-manager/
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 30, 2019, 09:00:21 am
I've kept meaning to ask this of those of you have seen Strop pitch in recent weeks. Just going by his pitching line, he seems to have been effective.  How has he looked to those who've seen him pitch?  Has his slider been working well and how has his velocity been? 

I sure would like to believe that his streak of ineffectiveness was a blip and that he could be an important piece of the bullpen next year if the Cubs bring him back.

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: dev on September 30, 2019, 09:01:47 am
That's one reason someone like Farrell or Girardi - who's been through the wringer and dealt with a tough media market - might make more sense than a rookie manager.
Girardi, if he accepts a reasonable salary, no more disco road trips...and I like Maddon.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Ron on September 30, 2019, 09:30:48 am
Jesse Rogers has an interesting piece on Maddon's departure, the issues the team has had and what they need in a new manager.  It includes the following:

"The Cubs might already have their next manager in mind, but at the very least they should know the qualities they need. Maddon worked hard to connect with a younger generation of players, but a younger manager and former major leaguer will inherently speak the millennial language. Whether the next manager has experience or not, he had better understand the ever-changing dynamics within a pitching staff, especially as it relates to the National League. If people wondered about Maddon's bullpen maneuvers, what will they say of a rookie manager's?

"Just as important as any in-game decision, the new manager must work with a firmer hand. By their own admission, Cubs players have been pampered by owner Tom Ricketts and team brass. It's first class all the way, but the players haven't always reciprocated. In a sense, it feels as if they've taken advantage of their parents and now need a little more discipline in their lives."


Maybe it's just an outside impression that the front office has seen David Ross as potential successor to Maddon (whenever Maddon left), but it seems to be widely shared.  Yeah, Ross was a friend to his fellow players, but he was also frequently reported to be a mentor and the guy who firmly called out guys on their mistakes, doing so in a tough love way.  And he obviously has an understanding of pitching that, among position players, only catchers have.  My recollection is that he was considered a smart catcher in terms of understanding and working with his pitchers (not just Lester).  If my memory is correct, I also recall that Ross even expressed surprise at some of Joe's bullpen decisions during the World Series.

Following Maddon, a living legend, will be difficult for anyone, but especially a rookie manager.  And Ross, also a living legend to Cub fans, will certainly be risking the universal love and adulation he currently has with those fans if he becomes the manager. The expectations here will be very high and extremely difficult to meet.  But my sense is that neither Ross nor Theo would shy away from  the risk if they believe Ross is the right guy for the job.

It almost seems too obvious a choice, but my guess is that he will be Theo's choice.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 30, 2019, 09:41:12 am
I was listening to the Cubs Related podcast.  One of the two guys that does the podcast had an unpaid internship in the Yankees FO during the time Girardi was the manager there.  Girardi didn't get along with the FO and didn't use the analytics that the Yanks were giving him.  He also didn't have a good relationship with the young players, in addition to the questionable line ups and bullpen management.   This was also reported in the NY media apparently, so I doubt that Girardi was much of a shot.

One guy that they mentioned outside of Ross, Lorreta, etc.. was Carlos Beltran.  I think if Ross can keep the culture that the Cubs have cultivated in addition to being able to bringing some intensity he could be really interesting if he is paired with a veteran bench coach.  Maybe they can bring Lackey back as the Intensity coach.

I've kept meaning to ask this of those of you have seen Strop pitch in recent weeks. Just going by his pitching line, he seems to have been effective.  How has he looked to those who've seen him pitch?  Has his slider been working well and how has his velocity been? 

I sure would like to believe that his streak of ineffectiveness was a blip and that he could be an important piece of the bullpen next year if the Cubs bring him back.

I didn't watch but his last 2 games he averaged 94.5ish and topped out at 95.5ish on his fastball, which is the hardest he had thrown since May.  On a cheap enough deal he might be worth bringing back just for his affect on Javy and then hope the fastball returns with some better health.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: craig on September 30, 2019, 09:41:56 am
Twins hired rookie Rocco Baldelli as their manager.  He's been great.  Really smart, nice, articulate, saber-smart, straightforward, sincere, honest, etc.. 

Obviously the Cubs don't have the Twins talent and no manager is going to show up and win >100 games like Baldelli did. 

I just mention him as a rookie who showed up and was immediately terrific.  So I think the qualities the guy brings is more important than experience or lack thereof.  I'm fine with a rookie manager, *IF* he's got the right attributes. 
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CurtOne on September 30, 2019, 09:43:03 am
Winning the World Series created the new curse.  I read it here on the board often.  “Hey, we’re winning, stop complaining.”  “We won a World Series, relax.”  “ In the playoffs, 4 straight years.”  “This is so much better than the past 100 years.”

I don’t really disagree with any of those view points, but whenever I saw truly real Cub fans like Ben and Ron and others post those thoughts, I respected their love for the Cubbies, but I still cringed.  To me, that just sounded like “Wait til next year” in a different form and tenor.  In his first two years, Joe had the guys loose, relaxed and having fun.  His style made them forget about the pressure of winning, and it’s what the kids needed.

Joe’s biggest error was in 2017.  Remember?  The team got off to a bad start, and Joe publicly stated that he didn’t want to put a lot of “we have to repeat” pressure on the team, and even though the team rallied to finish fairly strong, it fell short.

Rizzo says that Joe was like a Dad to them.  I believe him.  Unfortunately they all became his sons, people that he hated to be critical of.   We all loved them; we being the fans and the front office.  We tried to keep Fowler, just couldn’t.  We tried to keep Arrieta, but couldn’t justify the salary.  And when we needed to trade some people to juggle the team, we couldn’t.  We loved these guys. 

Since I live in Cardinal country, I saw their team operate differently.  David Freese was their hometown World Series hero, but in the next couple years when he didn’t produce, he was traded.  Last year they traded several popular youngsters for Goldschmidt.  There is a paradox with the fandom here.  They are very faithful to their players, but they’re okay with almost any trade.  Except, of course, with the addition of Fowler.  They still hate him.

I think Theocracy was trying to build a team that would dominate for years, but just struggled to make some moves because of an allegiance to the guys who ended the “curse.”  Totally understand that.  But Branch Rickey probably wouldn’t.  He would have traded his mother if it meant a championship.

Anyhow, Joe is gone.  Great manager.  I think some of our heroes will be dispersed this winter.  Time will tell if we are rebuilding or reloading.  Hope it’s the latter.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Playtwo on September 30, 2019, 10:02:57 am
I think it's not unusual for young players when they experience early success to have trouble sustaining it and building on it.  That's where a little discipline imposed from above can be helpful.  Hopefully that will come from our next manager.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 30, 2019, 10:12:49 am
In his first two years, Joe had the guys loose, relaxed and having fun.  His style made them forget about the pressure of winning, and it’s what the kids needed.

A “nice guys finish last” manager like Leo Durocher isn’t the answer but there are times during a season when some of that attitude is needed.  I’m not sure Joe had that in him.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on September 30, 2019, 10:14:57 am
I think it's not unusual for young players when they experience early success to have trouble sustaining it and building on it.  That's where a little discipline imposed from above can be helpful.  Hopefully that will come from our next manager.
I did not see your post until after I had posted mine.  Well said.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: CUBluejays on September 30, 2019, 10:19:18 am
Twins hired rookie Rocco Baldelli as their manager.  He's been great.  Really smart, nice, articulate, saber-smart, straightforward, sincere, honest, etc.. 

Obviously the Cubs don't have the Twins talent and no manager is going to show up and win >100 games like Baldelli did. 

I just mention him as a rookie who showed up and was immediately terrific.  So I think the qualities the guy brings is more important than experience or lack thereof.  I'm fine with a rookie manager, *IF* he's got the right attributes. 

Can the Cubs move to the AL Central, because I think that would fix a lot of their problems if the got to play 57 (41-16) games against teams with a combined -635 run differential.   Against the bottom 7 teams in run differential the Twins where 54-19.  The Cubs where 23-11. 

Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: davep on September 30, 2019, 10:33:42 am
It is true that the Cardinals have followed the Branch Rickey precept that it is much better to trade your stars a year too soon than a year too late.  And it is also true that they have been perfectly willing to trade their better players, such as Freese, Pham and numerous others in order to balance their team.  But they have also firmly held on to those players that they considered to be the core of the team.  Pujols remained through the prime of his career, as has Molina, Carpenter and Wainwright.  The same held true for Holliday, and almost certainly will with Goldschmidt.  There are stars that can be traded, and their are stars that should be kept.

On the Cubs, I believe that core of the current team is Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Hendricks.  The rest, such as Bryant, Schwarber, Caritini and Heyward can and should be moved to better balance the team, as well as procure and provide young players as future replacements.

Managers are like sweat sox.  It can be refreshing to change them every once in a while, but if you keep them too long, they will eventually stink.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: wmljohn on September 30, 2019, 12:11:46 pm
Quote
Winning the World Series created the new curse.  I read it here on the board often.  “Hey, we’re winning, stop complaining.”  “We won a World Series, relax.”  “ In the playoffs, 4 straight years.”  “This is so much better than the past 100 years.”

I don’t really disagree with any of those view points, but whenever I saw truly real Cub fans like Ben and Ron and others post those thoughts, I respected their love for the Cubbies, but I still cringed.  To me, that just sounded like “Wait til next year” in a different form and tenor.

YES!  If you complained about their performance you were told by some on this board that you are not a fan and you didn't follow them pre 2016...
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Deeg on September 30, 2019, 04:33:50 pm
Winning the World Series created the new curse.  I read it here on the board often.  “Hey, we’re winning, stop complaining.”  “We won a World Series, relax.”  “ In the playoffs, 4 straight years.”  “This is so much better than the past 100 years.”

I don’t really disagree with any of those view points, but whenever I saw truly real Cub fans like Ben and Ron and others post those thoughts, I respected their love for the Cubbies, but I still cringed.  To me, that just sounded like “Wait til next year” in a different form and tenor.  In his first two years, Joe had the guys loose, relaxed and having fun.  His style made them forget about the pressure of winning, and it’s what the kids needed.

Joe’s biggest error was in 2017.  Remember?  The team got off to a bad start, and Joe publicly stated that he didn’t want to put a lot of “we have to repeat” pressure on the team, and even though the team rallied to finish fairly strong, it fell short.

Rizzo says that Joe was like a Dad to them.  I believe him.  Unfortunately they all became his sons, people that he hated to be critical of.   We all loved them; we being the fans and the front office.  We tried to keep Fowler, just couldn’t.  We tried to keep Arrieta, but couldn’t justify the salary.  And when we needed to trade some people to juggle the team, we couldn’t.  We loved these guys. 

Since I live in Cardinal country, I saw their team operate differently.  David Freese was their hometown World Series hero, but in the next couple years when he didn’t produce, he was traded.  Last year they traded several popular youngsters for Goldschmidt.  There is a paradox with the fandom here.  They are very faithful to their players, but they’re okay with almost any trade.  Except, of course, with the addition of Fowler.  They still hate him.

I think Theocracy was trying to build a team that would dominate for years, but just struggled to make some moves because of an allegiance to the guys who ended the “curse.”  Totally understand that.  But Branch Rickey probably wouldn’t.  He would have traded his mother if it meant a championship.

Anyhow, Joe is gone.  Great manager.  I think some of our heroes will be dispersed this winter.  Time will tell if we are rebuilding or reloading.  Hope it’s the latter.


Well said (I meant to "agree" with it, LOL).
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Chris27 on September 30, 2019, 05:39:36 pm
Obviously the Cubs don't have the Twins talent and no manager is going to show up and win >100 games like Baldelli did. 

Didn't Aaron Boone show up and win 100 and 103 without any managerial experience? It really helps to have talent.
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 02, 2020, 01:54:02 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXBbA3EXYAA_7oy?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Cubs in '19
Post by: Bennett on May 02, 2020, 02:42:54 pm
What is the probability that you catch all 5️⃣ differences?

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