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General Category => Bleacher Bums Forum => Topic started by: Dave23 on June 10, 2020, 03:43:18 pm

Title: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2020, 03:43:18 pm
All 5 rounds!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 10, 2020, 04:44:36 pm
Here's hoping we get Garrett Crochet.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 10, 2020, 05:46:25 pm
Live stream

https://www.mlb.com/video/2020-mlb-draft-live-1243?t=mlb-draft
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 06:18:50 pm
Orioles are taking an underslot guy at 2, Heston Kerstead.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 06:24:55 pm
Marlins taking Max Meyer. This draft is weird.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 06:31:10 pm
KC takes Asa Lacy, lefty pitcher Texas A&M.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 06:39:06 pm
Blue Jays take Austinb Martin, SS Vanderbilt
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 06:46:27 pm
Mariners take Emerson Hancock, rhp Georgia
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 06:49:26 pm
7. Pirates take Nick Gonzalez SS New Mexico State
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 10, 2020, 06:51:53 pm
Commercial breaks begin after the tenth pick.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 06:59:03 pm
8. San Diego Robert Hessell III High School.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:02:37 pm
9. Colorado Zac Veen RF High School.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:07:35 pm
10. Angels Reid Detmers LHP Louisville.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 07:12:42 pm
Crochet is going to the White Sox.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:16:53 pm
11. White Sucks Garrett Crochet LHP Tennessee
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:21:39 pm
12 Reds Austin Hendrick RF High School
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 07:23:15 pm
Rumors the Cubs May go underslot at 16. 🤬
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 10, 2020, 07:27:28 pm
Rumors the Cubs May go underslot at 16. 🤬

Underslot in a 5-round draft.  Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:28:22 pm
13. Giants Patrick Bailey C NC State
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:34:09 pm
14. Rangers Justin Foscue 2B Mississippi State
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2020, 07:40:43 pm
Abel at 15.

I hope 16 is Mitchell.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:40:54 pm
15. Phillies Mick Abel RHP High School.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:42:23 pm
Abel at 15.

I hope 16 is Mitchell.

I agree.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:44:48 pm
ED HOWARD SS MOUNT CARMEL HS
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:46:04 pm
Well, they took a high school shortstop said to have star potential.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2020, 07:47:06 pm
Ed Howard...Harold comped him to Barry Larkin.

Glove/arm look great on film...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 07:48:53 pm
Addison Russell was also compared to Barry Larkin.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 10, 2020, 07:53:46 pm
That's a good pick.  And definitely not underslot.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2020, 07:58:35 pm
Brewers at 20 and Cards at 21...I hope Mitchell doesn’t fall to them. I don’t want to hate him.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CurtOne on June 10, 2020, 08:09:06 pm
Is Howard, Elston's grandson?  Is he Ryan's nephew or little brother?  Distant relative of Frank Howard?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 08:11:31 pm
Definitely not underslot like the Red Sox did, who don’t have a second round pick so that makes it even weirder.

Howard wasn’t a guy I thought would get to the Cubs. I like the pick a lot.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 08:13:39 pm
Mitchell to the Brewers.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: goblue007 on June 10, 2020, 08:14:27 pm
Brewers at 20 and Cards at 21...I hope Mitchell doesn’t fall to them. I don’t want to hate him.

 Brewers got him  :-\
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 10, 2020, 08:22:25 pm
Is Howard, Elston's grandson?  Is he Ryan's nephew or little brother?  Distant relative of Frank Howard?

Curly's great-grandnephew.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 10, 2020, 09:11:42 pm
Howard posted a work out video this AM. Dude is a lot bigger than his junior year.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: method on June 10, 2020, 09:14:15 pm
At least you guys did not pass on abel... Wtf white sox.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 10, 2020, 09:30:29 pm
I like the guy they got.  If they both remain uninjured, the lefty will be the more valuable pitcher.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 10, 2020, 10:32:23 pm

Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney

Cubs VP of scouting Dan Kantrovitz calls drafting Ed Howard at No. 16: “Literally our best-case scenario.”

9:18 PM · Jun 10, 2020
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 10, 2020, 10:52:38 pm
Nice piece on Ed Howard by Morosi.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ed-howard-mlb-draft-prospect
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 10, 2020, 11:10:52 pm
Exciting to have a good young player added to the system. 

We've got a new draft boss with a successful resume; I'm totally fine to trust his evaluation process until/unless it proves unsound. 

Howard seems well respected in all of the draft-value rankings, somewhere in the top-25 by everybody and in the top 10-15 by some.  So this seems like a more mainstream pick than many Cubs picks over the last decade.  (Simpson, Schwarber, Jensen, Hoerner, and Little were all variably unexpected and taken variably higher than where mainstream media rankings and projections anticipated them.)

I like the concept of having a Chicago kid.  Perhaps when free agency approaches, if he's hopefully good enough to demand a meaningful FA contract someday, he'll have more reason to prefer to stay home? 

Just from brief practice-field video at mlb, I kinda likes what it showed.  Seemed kinda boring and straightforward and balanced, without the big leg-kick that has been common for many Cub prospects past. 

Somebody earlier mentioned Barry Larkin and Addison Russell.  I wonder if Russell isn't in some ways a good analogy defensively?  Wasn't fast, didn't have the flashy big arm, but his shortstop defense was so smooth and economical, got ball from glove to throw very quickly, very accurate. 

Obviously you're not looking for Russell's personality or his crummy bat, but a Russell-esque defender with a good bat, and with brains and integrity, would be a very nice value. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 10, 2020, 11:17:23 pm
With no evidence, I'm speculating he'll sign for around slot.  I doubt they'd need to have promised a big super-slot.  Likewise I doubt that he'd have agreed to under-slot.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 10, 2020, 11:57:08 pm
Howard went right about the middle of his projected range.  No reason to think he'll be far off slot money.

From what I've seen Howard definitely has a better arm than Russell.  His defense looks to be solid, unspectacular with no major weaknesses.  He'll go as far as his bat takes him.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 12:52:10 am
BA points out:

“With the Cubs expected to sign Dominican shortstop Cristian Hernandez (the top prospect in the 2020 international class for some scouts), that's a dynamic haul of premium shortstops coming for the organization.”
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 11, 2020, 06:39:48 am
I would have preferred a college player who's closer to contributing and sooner or later we're gonna have to develop some pitching but everyone seems to love this pick so I cant really hate on a kid I know nothing about.

I read a lot on Twitter about the pick being perfect for the times we're in.

If someone wants to twist that in a negative way its not my words or opinion.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 01:35:45 pm
Longenhagen at Fangraphs:

“I think Howard is a stud, evaluated with the same FV as the kind of players who sit at the top of most international signing classes. He has feel to hit, is going to stay at shortstop, and he’s going to get stronger as he matures and hit for power without needing a swing overhaul......Howard almost went at 10 and was in Philly’s mix at 15.”
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 11, 2020, 04:48:03 pm
Cubs #2 - Burl Carraway LHP Dallas Baptist
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 11, 2020, 04:50:39 pm
High 90s fastball.   Going to be a reliever.  Should progress very rapidly according to TV guys.  Even the end of this year. ??????
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 04:51:13 pm
College reliever, with actual starters available. Cubs going to Cub in the second round.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 04:57:15 pm
BA:

The top college reliever in the class, Carraway has explosive stuff from the left side and, depending on the day, looks like he could be a late-inning reliever for an MLB club right now. A wiry athlete standing at 6-foot, 173 pounds, Carraway explodes off the rubber and uses his lower half extremely well, with a fast arm and crossfiring action in his delivery that adds to his deception. He pairs a fastball that’s regularly in the 96-98 mph range with spotty control, which makes it easy to see why hitters are always uncomfortable in the box against him. That’s especially for lefties, who struck out in 33 of 64 (52.5 percent) plate appearances against Carraway in 2019. Carraway’s fastball has 70-grade potential if he can improve his control, which is below-average. He also has a knee-buckling curveball in the mid-70s with 1-to-7 shape and sharp biting action, which he also struggles to land consistently. Carraway gets away with below-average control now because he generates so many whiffs outside of the zone, but more advanced hitters will be able to stand in the box and take those pitches more easily. His career walk rate over 42 innings with DBU is 5.36, and while the bar is lower for reliever control, he’ll have to improve that for an MLB club to trust him in any sort of high-leverage role. The timing of his release point is inconsistent, and the violence and effort of his delivery likely don’t help in that regard, so perhaps teams could try and calm that down a tick at the next level to help him stay in the strike zone more frequently. Carraway comes with plenty of risk thanks to his control and the poor track record of college relievers, but he could be a quick mover to a big league pen with a step forward in his strike-throwing.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 11, 2020, 05:08:10 pm
Finally, a bookend set with Dillon Maples.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: method on June 11, 2020, 05:08:52 pm
College reliever, with actual starters available. Cubs going to Cub in the second round.

Atleast you got a stud in the first round not a rp!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: JR on June 11, 2020, 05:10:29 pm
Well if he turns into Billy Wagner, maybe it’ll be all right...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 05:14:20 pm
MLB Pipeline:

Carraway first piqued Dallas Baptist's interest as a center fielder and threw in the mid-80 as a Texas high school senior in 2017, so he wasn't a high-priority recruit and didn't attract interest from pro clubs. His velocity began to climb as a freshman but he was so raw that he made just two appearances and retired only one of the seven batters he faced. He made a huge leap forward as a sophomore, averaging 15.6 strikeouts per nine innings as the Patriots' closer and becoming the first player in school history to make the U.S. collegiate national team. The favorite to be the first reliever drafted in 2020, Carraway has a pair of overpowering pitches in his fastball and curveball. His heater sits at 93-96 mph and touches 98 with riding action, while his downer curve usually parks in the upper 70s. His pitches play up because they have high spin rates and he gets good extension in his delivery, and both can grade as well above average when at their best. As a 6-footer who lacks physicality and features a lot of effort in his high three-quarters delivery, Carraway is strictly a reliever. His control and command have improved in college but still need to get better if he's going to hold down a high-leverage role in the big leagues. He should be one of the first players from the 2020 Draft to reach the Majors.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 05:44:16 pm
Atleast you got a stud in the first round not a rp!

I mean I love the Howard pick and the first round pick is by far the important. During the Theo years I’m pretty sure Davis and Roederer was the only time where it wasn’t what the hell. This doesn’t seem like Kantrovich is bringing much of a change.   Clayton Beeter, who the Dodgers took at 66 is another guy that could be a reliever, but like Crochet at least has a chance to start.  A lefty with control problems and good stuff doesn’t seem worth a second round pick.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CurtOne on June 11, 2020, 05:54:49 pm
Dallas Baptist was home to a couple of major leaguers including Ben Zobrist.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 06:42:47 pm
Jordan Nwogu, LF UM. Big power, questionable contact. Questionable school choice.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Robb on June 11, 2020, 06:44:56 pm
Nwogu has special power when he can make contact but sometimes looks lost in the OF so even if he makes enough contact he projects as a LF at best. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 11, 2020, 06:59:34 pm
We should have taken Blaze Jordan. Blah.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 11, 2020, 07:04:17 pm
Nwogu sounds like Mike Mallory Jr.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 11, 2020, 07:22:54 pm
Quote
Even though he has impressive baseball stats, Nwogu said studying comes first. He is a computer science engineering major with an academic scholarship. In his free time he likes to code and play chess. “Academics is the biggest thing,” he said.

https://www.sikids.com/kid-reporter/michigans-brewer-and-nwogu-traded-football-baseball

Not sure how many intellectual chess players are going to challenge him on the Cubs....
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 07:26:32 pm
Did anybody see the BA article on IFA?  Can someone at least lie to me and the Cubs are signing somebody that projects as possible SP.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 11, 2020, 07:33:11 pm
We've got Maples. 
We've got Burl.
We've got Kimbrel. 
We've got Underwood. 

I think they ought to get Edwards back!  :):)
And Justin Grimm is still only 32... 
How old is Marmol, now? 

Remember before last season when Theo said that bullpen control was going to be a priority? 

Cubs got Burl at 51; three of the major and best-respected ranking sources had him in the 40's.  So as with Howard, Cubs with another relatively scouting-mainstream selection. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 11, 2020, 07:34:55 pm
I love a good bullpen.  If Burl can throw enough strikes, I trust it won't be a wasted pick.  Heh heh, the next Josh Hader! 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 11, 2020, 07:35:53 pm

https://www.sikids.com/kid-reporter/michigans-brewer-and-nwogu-traded-football-baseball

Not sure how many intellectual chess players are going to challenge him on the Cubs....


Hendricks?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Playtwo on June 11, 2020, 07:39:32 pm
I'm waiting anxiously for Jiggs' assessment of Nwogu.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 11, 2020, 07:55:19 pm
There were reports that the new guy was looking for more upside; and the talk of a refreshed and more modern commitment to development. 

Both picks 2 and 3 would seem consistent with strong belief in their new development system. 

Burl with a great arm, great stuff, great spin rate... but wild as a Marmol.  The report was that he was a center fielder, converted to pitching as a freshman where he pitched only 0.1 inning, and has now accumulated only 52 innings in his life.  That's is so little experience, and obviously he's wild as can be.  I assume they believe that their development system will be able to work with his delivery to enable much-improved consistency and control, and if so that his stuff will make him a weapon.  Massive developmental project, pitch-lab project, seems to me.  But the "stuff" has plenty of upside. 

As a value, though, I wonder how much upside the selection has?  When you'll never pitch more than a few dozen innings per season, the situational-relief role somewhat constrains the value upside.  Still, I'm a huge believer in a strong stocked bullpen. 

Now Nwogu, a guy with D1 football scholarship offers, and some suggestions that he's got a weird, whacky swing.  Report of serious power, and one report mentioned favorable eye-hand coordination.  But he's K'd a lot even versus Big Ten pitching...  Is there the belief that with the new hitting-mechanics analysis, that the pure talent is there and that with improved swing-mechanics, that he might turn into a force? 

I've often felt like a player's career can be as easily dictated by his biggest weakness, as by his biggest strength.  Cubs have previously tended towards avoidance-of-Achilles-heel guys, I think.  Here the new boss seems to be taking a couple of guys with massive Achilles-heel problems, for now; but with the view that development may be able to correct those. 

Will be interesting to see how they do. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 08:00:33 pm
Luke Little, 6-8 lefty that might throw 105. Poor control and no secondary stuff.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 11, 2020, 08:03:38 pm
Unless they go to UT or are from around here I dont know anything about these cats.

I just hoped the Cubs would get Crochet or Soularie.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 08:05:48 pm
I love a good bullpen.  If Burl can throw enough strikes, I trust it won't be a wasted pick.  Heh heh, the next Josh Hader! 

Cubs are going with 2 SP and an 11 man bullpen next year. Should be fun.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CurtOne on June 11, 2020, 08:11:12 pm
I'm waiting anxiously for Jiggs' assessment of Nwogu.
Jiggy is brushing the dust off his chess set.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 08:19:57 pm
Luke Little, 6-8 lefty that might throw 105. Poor control and no secondary stuff.

BA says above-average slider.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 08:47:50 pm
BA says above-average slider.

If he was throwing 100 mph with and above average slider he’d be ranked above Burl. It might flash above average and might get there some day. BA also said the spin rates where not all that good.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 11, 2020, 08:59:31 pm
Sounds like a project for the pitching lab.  The front office must have confidence that it is a worthwhile project.

There is no doubt that you can not teach velocity to any large extent.  It looks as if with the two leftys they drafted today, they are going in a different direction.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 11, 2020, 09:26:50 pm
2nd rounder is a tiny lefty named after part of a tree, 4th rounder is a hug lefty named "Little".
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 09:30:16 pm
If he was throwing 100 mph with and above average slider he’d be ranked above Burl. It might flash above average and might get there some day. BA also said the spin rates where not all that good.

Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.

But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average” slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary stuff.”

Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 11, 2020, 09:35:49 pm
Koen Moreno, prep RHP in the 5th round.  Not a super well-known kid but this is a nice gamble in the 5th round.  I see a nice combo of stuff and intangibles here, considerable upside.  Gonna be a tough sign though.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 09:37:37 pm
Cubs finally picked a guy that might actually be able to be a starting pitcher.

To me this draft is just a typical Cubs draft. The did great in the first round and then after that it was kinda like I guess.

The need starting pitching and it is the strength of the draft and they don’t take anybody until the 5th round. He a 3 sport high schooler so hopefully there is untapped potential there. The got 2 hard throwing lefties with control issues that profile as relievers and a LF that mashes the ball.

The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When Epstein contract is up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 11, 2020, 09:46:36 pm
Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.

But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average” slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary stuff.”

Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.

We already waste a 1st rounder on Little a couple years ago?  Why did we re-draft him?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 11, 2020, 09:48:23 pm



The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When Epstein contract is up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership. [


I think it's tough to say the Cubs have done well doing that when those guys have collectively played 0 innings for them.  And three of them 0 innings period.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 10:04:13 pm
Cease was used in a trade and was a top 100 prospect.
Davis is a top 100 prospect.
Steele has the same reliever potential was guys we spent 2 and 4th round picks on today, we with the added bonus of he could actually start.
Roederer was talent.

It beats the likes of Dewees, Stinnent, Zastrynzy, etc... that they usually break out in the second round.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 11, 2020, 10:13:30 pm
Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.

But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average” slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary stuff.”

Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.

Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.   I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his control passable.

So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to majors.  The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Ron on June 11, 2020, 11:00:20 pm

Luke Little video.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1271246264248795137
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 11, 2020, 11:02:07 pm
Nationals took former Cubs draftee Mitchell Parker in the 5th round.

He had 2 scary great seasons at San Jac...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 11:23:10 pm
Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.   I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his control passable.

So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to majors.  The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.

You said Little has “no secondary stuff.”

Just admit that’s an exaggeration. You don’t like drafting relievers, fine, but I have yet to see you quote any analyst who said he has no secondary stuff.

Fangraphs said slider “flashes above,” BA says slider “above average,” and Pipeline says secondaries “have made progress” and need more work.

Can’t find anything by Law and McDaniel weighing in on his secondaries, so please link that as you read something from them and you wouldn’t just make up something I’m sure.

Obviously, the guy is a work in progress. What 19 year-old pitcher isn’t?

Cubs went for upside in this draft. I like that. Most of the Cubs pitch draft misfires of recent years have been pitchability  guys without big velocity and/or secondary stuff emphasis. Cubs could have taken a pitcher-approved-by-you in first round, but opted for position player with upside that even you approve. So, after that, just take the prospect the evaluators like the most, irrespective of position—-seems to me.

Maybe Cubs will still sign some $20,000 SPs that you can approve. Could be a few interesting pitchers out there after a 5-round draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 11, 2020, 11:43:33 pm
...To me this draft is just a typical Cubs draft. The did great in the first round and then after that it was kinda like I guess.

The need starting pitching and it is the strength of the draft and they don’t take anybody until the 5th round. ...

The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over ...

It's a new scouting boss, and a restructured development system.  I'm just going to hope that their analysis can see untapped potential, and can recognize correctible mechanical issues; and that they have the development process to bring the best out of some highly imperfect prospects who have some loud tools. 
*Burl and Little are big-time wild; but both are big-time fast.  Let's see if the development can get more out of them than in past from Steele or Hudson or Blackburn or Zastrysny or Stinnett or Carson Sands. 
*Moreno is a nice projectable prospect, but barely got over 90 last year.  Let's see if maturation and development turns him into a solid competitive fastball to go with other qualities; or if he's always velocity-short.

Absolutely true that once again, they didn't even try with rotation pitching.  They haven't spent on international pitchers for years, they didn't try this draft, they didn't in the Hoerner draft, and if you believe Jensen and McAvene last year are relievers not starters, then they didn't try last draft either. 

I kind of figure that if you hit on a 4th or 2nd rounder and Little or Lang end up being quality power-lefty relievers in the majors, though, I'm not going to complain "what bad picks, we should have gotten good rotation starters, but all we got from 2nd and 4th round were two excellent relievers".  But yeah, sooner or later SOMEBODY needs to start. 

Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, and Prietto in the first 5 rounds.  Sands, Steele, Cease, all million-dollar guys.  Bryan Hudson, Darryl Wilson, million-dolllar guys or close, right?  Estrada got a million, and Velasquez was high-ceililng.  Davis and Kohl look good, plus Roederer was that year.  So they've taken some HS upside guys and signed a number of millionish guys.  They just haven't worked that well prior to Davis and maybe Kohl. 

Not sure it's philosophy, I think it's probably just case-by-case scouting and developing.  Derek Johnson just loved Stinnett.  Oops.  McLeod and somebody really loves Zastryzny, and they loved Carson Sands.  Oh well. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 11, 2020, 11:58:22 pm
BA Carlos Collazo favorite picks of day 2:

RHP Koen Moreno, Cubs (147): If Moreno had more of a chance to pitch this spring, I think it’s likely the Cubs wouldn’t have had a shot to take him at No. 147. Every time Moreno pitches, it seems like he takes a step forward, as was the case for him the entirety of last summer. He oozes athleticism, is an exceptionally gifted mover over the rubber, has a lean and projectable frame and we haven’t even talked about his stuff yet. His fastball has ranged from 87-93 for the most part, but that velocity has steadily climbed and he should be throwing an above-average fastball soon. Pair that with advanced feel for an 81-85 mph changeup that has swing-and-miss qualities and terrific natural ability to spin a breaking ball, and he has all the traits you’re looking for.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2020, 12:25:57 am
Regarding Cubs signing international pitchers, Cubs signed what some considered the top international pitcher in the 2018 signing period, Richard Gallardo. 

Longenhagen says he has peaked already, so looks like that hasn't panned out.  Cubs were also hurt by two consecutive years recently when they were prohibited from signing anybody for over $300,000 (except from Mexico, with clubs getting most of the bonus).  In any case, it's a very poor record, obviously.



Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2020, 12:36:16 am
Cubs have drafted tons of pitching in recent drafts.  Just unsuccessfully.  To say the least.

2019- rounds 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9.

2018- rounds 2, 4, 6

2017- 7 of the first 8 picks were pitchers

2016- 13 of first 14 picks were pitchers (!)

2015- rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Seems like beginning in 2019, Cubs more interested in velocity than in years past.  Well, something wasn't working right. 

Really hurt that the two first round pitchers in 2017 were stiffs.  Both guys were secondary pitch oriented guys. Some analysts said these guys had the two best curves in the draft. Don't think that I want more college pitchers like that.

And, really hard to identify HS pitchers in the high rounds. 

In any case, Cubs have done a bad job drafting pitchers, which is the most obvious thing anybody can say about the Cubs.

But, can see why they are trying to take a different approach with the kind of pitchers they're drafting lately.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2020, 12:44:53 am
I get it that folks don't get excited about drafting reliever-types. 

And, the analysts that we read always downgrade pitching prospects who project as relievers.  Get that.  They throw a lot fewer innings than starters.  They rack up fewer WAR totals. 

But, if your bullpen sucks, you are going to go crazy.  Nats didn't start to move up last year until the bullpen got a lot better.  There are more relievers in every pen than ever before.  The high velocity guys are relievers, as a group.  Bullpens are pitching more and more innings in the aggregate than ever before.

So, I'm not averse to developing power relievers, if that's part of the Cubs new pitching plan. 

Yes, it's a significant problem if you're not drafting and developing SPs.  Just draft and develop better pitchers.  Draft talent, no matter the role. And, develop it.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 12, 2020, 12:48:02 am
I like Howard and Moreno, less thrilled with the ones in-between.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2020, 01:09:14 am

.....The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When Epstein contract is up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership.

Because of the wipeout of so many games due to the virus, this was a tough draft to assess HS pitchers especially.

Way, way more college pitchers drafted than HS pitchers. 20 HS pitchers taken, total, so less than one per club.  Cubs took one. (55 college/JUCO pitchers).

So, if you like the Howard pick and wanted a HS pitcher early, this was not really the draft to do that. 

Obviously, Cubs like the 2nd round reliever they took-- a lot.  I'm not willing to render much of an opinion about that because none of us have any clue whether that will work out.  All I know is that he's not really the type of pitcher that the Cubs have done such a poor job drafting in recent drafts.

Also, he could be a somewhat underslot signing that will permit them to sign the 5th round HS pitcher.  Doesn't seem like the picks at 1, 3, 4 necessarily are going to be underslots.   
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 12, 2020, 01:54:04 am
I like the first two picks and Little.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 07:53:56 am
It's a new scouting boss, and a restructured development system.  I'm just going to hope that their analysis can see untapped potential, and can recognize correctible mechanical issues; and that they have the development process to bring the best out of some highly imperfect prospects who have some loud tools. 
*Burl and Little are big-time wild; but both are big-time fast.  Let's see if the development can get more out of them than in past from Steele or Hudson or Blackburn or Zastrysny or Stinnett or Carson Sands. 
*Moreno is a nice projectable prospect, but barely got over 90 last year.  Let's see if maturation and development turns him into a solid competitive fastball to go with other qualities; or if he's always velocity-short.

Absolutely true that once again, they didn't even try with rotation pitching.  They haven't spent on international pitchers for years, they didn't try this draft, they didn't in the Hoerner draft, and if you believe Jensen and McAvene last year are relievers not starters, then they didn't try last draft either. 

I kind of figure that if you hit on a 4th or 2nd rounder and Little or Lang end up being quality power-lefty relievers in the majors, though, I'm not going to complain "what bad picks, we should have gotten good rotation starters, but all we got from 2nd and 4th round were two excellent relievers".  But yeah, sooner or later SOMEBODY needs to start. 

Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, and Prietto in the first 5 rounds.  Sands, Steele, Cease, all million-dollar guys.  Bryan Hudson, Darryl Wilson, million-dolllar guys or close, right?  Estrada got a million, and Velasquez was high-ceililng.  Davis and Kohl look good, plus Roederer was that year.  So they've taken some HS upside guys and signed a number of millionish guys.  They just haven't worked that well prior to Davis and maybe Kohl. 

Not sure it's philosophy, I think it's probably just case-by-case scouting and developing.  Derek Johnson just loved Stinnett.  Oops.  McLeod and somebody really loves Zastryzny, and they loved Carson Sands.  Oh well. 

It isn’t about just taking high schoolers. A lot of the guys you mentioned like Blackburn, Hudson, Prieto, etc... didn’t have a high ceiling.  They Cubs have very rarely targeted players like that and when they do they’ve had good results. They aren’t all going to hit, but even if it is a 10% rate it will beat the Cubs strategy of giving up ceiling for floor and consistently getting neither.  Burl is just a reworked package of what the Cubs have been doing for nearly a decade now with nothing to show for it.

The Cubs spent 40% of their picks on wild lefty relievers with good stuff. The Cubs have done a pretty good job of finding guys like as minor league free agents, trades, waiver claims, etc.

I like the Little pick. Burl doesn’t upset a ton. Nwago is interesting, but when you combine them together as a draft class it just doesn’t do much for me.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 08:50:50 am
....A lot of the guys you mentioned like Blackburn, Hudson, Prieto, etc... didn’t have a high ceiling....

You may be right.  But I wonder if that isn't partly hindsight? 
*Hudson was a long, young guy, reported as already low-90's, viewed as being super projectible.  Randy-Johnson upside comments at the time.  Get all of his levers coordinated and optimized and he's got high-90's projection with a deadly curve.  Except with all of that length and projection, he never added one mph to his velocity, and if anything lost some in the pros.  Brailyn has added 10-15 mph; Hudson lost a couple.  Maybe good scouting would have realized in advance; and maybe good development would have helped him find an extra 6 mph, I don't know.  But I think the ceiling was at least perceived to be there, at first. 

*Steele, had good upside. and has added some velocity.  Had all the athleticism that gave him the high-ceiling to become coordinated and pitch with control; none of that ceiling was realized.  Wildman, big-league stuff but no location.

*Estrada, as HS junior throwing mid-90's, 1st-round projection, plenty high ceiling.  Well then he regressed as a senior in every way, but the high ceiling was still assumed to be in there.  But so far, nothing. 

*Little, supposedly super high-ceiling curve, and was reported to be throwing mid-90's, with projection to add more; he was projected as a plenty high-ceiling guy.  Again, that projection didn't happen, instead the real guy was a handful of mph slower, and rather than sustain velocity and get faster, his velocity is much less than the scouting reports reported. 

*Blackburn:  Slender, projectible guy, had supposedly added 5 mph and was throwing 93-94 in spring, with projection for more, to go with command and curveball.  Seemingly plenty of ceiling...  Until the real guy ended up throwing 88-90 instead of 93-94, and never added anything. 

*Underwood, already said to be throwing 99 in high school.  I think there was perceived to be plenty of ceiling.  Obviously not as fast as a pro, and never gained consistency or command. 

*Trevor Clifton, another guy with big-ceiling reports, high 90's in HS. 

You may be right, maybe they never had ceiling.  But it seems to me this is perhaps either a hindsight thing?  You get some projectible guys, and some explode, some it never happens.  Roger Clemens added 10-15 mph after his draft summer.  Angel Guzman, Carlos Zambrano, Juan Cruz, those guys added tons of velocity after their early pro years.  Brailyn, high 80's has touched 93, now he touches 100.  We've had no shortage of high-80's touches 93-94, but few have gone Brailyn. 

Not sure how much of that is:  1) luck . 2) scouting and projection, and 3) development?  Maybe if Blackburn and Hudson had been in driveline, analytics would have figured things out and they'd have added 5 mph?  But the Cubs just didn't have the analytics or development system to help them?  Or the good teachers who could persuade them to make the needed adjustments and the ability to explain exactly what needed to be done and how?  Or maybe it was largely the scouting?  Maybe smarter scouting can say "he's 90-93 now, and his breaking ball is erratic; but look at XYZ in his delivery.  If he strengthens these muscles, does this kind of throwing to strengthen his arm, adjusts his arm slot in such a way, adjusts his stride and weight-transfer in ways XYZ, and if we can get him in pitch lab quantifying each throw so he can get locked into doing it right, he's got an extra 6 mph waiting to be untapped, and with better control, and much better spin on pitches X and Y?  And maybe smarter scouting can look at Blackburn and say, "guys, I know he's young, but his delivery is already as efficient as it can get.  There's nothing more to get out of it.  Hudson may be tall, but there aren't another 7 mph untapped; there's no Randy Johnson in there, his shoulder is already too tight, and as he matures physically it's going to get worse, not better...." 

Beats me. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Playtwo on June 12, 2020, 09:08:44 am
Bleacher Report likes the Cub draft:  https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895870-2020-mlb-draft-results-easy-to-view-grades-for-each-franchise
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 09:15:42 am
Hudson was a sinker guy with a curve. 10 years ago he’s probably a stud, but there pitching/hitting changed.  Guys adding velocity can happen, but is random. Somebody like Marquez did and Hudson didn’t.

A lot of the guys you are mentioning like Clifton, Franklin are later round picks that didn’t require a huge bonus. You can’t just take high upside guys, but the Cubs don’t do it enough. Every draft should have a few.

Here’s another comp for Burl. Jacob Lindgren. He was the best reliever in college, a lefty with 2 plus pitches and questionable command and he was going to be quick to the majors. He was taken by the Yankees at 2.14 in 2014. Reached the majors for 7 IP in 2015 and because of injuries that is the entirety of his major league career so far.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 09:51:12 am
...Burl is just a reworked package of what the Cubs have been doing for nearly a decade now with nothing to show for it.

The Cubs spent 40% of their picks on wild lefty relievers with good stuff. The Cubs have done a pretty good job of finding guys like as minor league free agents, trades, waiver claims, etc.

I like the Little pick. Burl doesn’t upset a ton. Nwago is interesting, but when you combine them together as a draft class it just doesn’t do much for me.

You're likely to be correct.  Not a lot of 2nd-3rd-4th rounders turn into much; I assume with little spring scouting it's harder yet; and with Kantrovitz being new and largely working with inherited scouts from a bad scouting system, the odds aren't great. 

But I'm not sure I quite get the Burl as "reworked package" concept? 

What I see as common:  he's a flawed prospect who will need to both improve significantly relative to his flaws, and who will need to have his assets outweigh his flaws.  That is true with probably any 2nd round pick or later, nobody is perfect, nobody is ready, and anybody taken after 50 is going to need to get better in some way, probably ways plural. 

Keegan Thompson: add some velocity, hope command and pitchability makes good velocity unnecessary.  Abbott: slider needs to be so good that he doesn't need average velocity, and probably also needs to add some velo.  Brennen Davis:  needs to mature physically and add strength, but also needs to almost completely restructure his swing.  McAvene: need to sustain the velocity, and fix his command, or else have his stuff be so electric that even with sub-average command he's still good. 

Everybody needs to fix something or add something, often both.  In that regard, sure Burl and Little fall within that umbrella. 

Difference:  Where I see Burl being a somewhat different package is that I don't think he needs to add anything; it's strictly about "fixing" with him.  The stuff is obviously already there.  That was NOT true with Keegan or Zastryzny or Paul Richan.  So it's a different deal.  Not sure it's any easier.  "Pitch lab" is all the buzz, of course; but it's not totally new, and "pitch lab" didn't fix Edwards or Maples or Underwood (at least, not yet....).  So maybe "analytics" and "development" will fix it; but kinda doubtful. 

Little, maybe kinda similar?  100-mph velocity is a pretty good place to start, you don't need to add more there.  Adjust the arm slot, play with the grip, get some different spin, and hopefully the location gets more consistent. 

The hitter, too; he doesn't need to mature into power.  Power, bat-speed, exit-velo, those are already present.  But probably a whole lot of "fixing" to his swing to enable those attributes to come out more often.  I'm still a skeptic that you can "hitting Lab" or "develop" a guy into being able to hit. 

But in a sense it seems to me to be a pretty audacious, perhaps almost arrogant, confidence that your analytics and labs can "fix" these guys, guys with big talents but big flaws.  Should be kind of if they can find some success.

Tangent note:  It may also be that the "great stuff" and awesome velocity that Burl and Little have, that those are kinda fraudulent?  Throwing for the speed-gun is one thing; throwing to get a batter out is different.  In the video, Burl's delivery seems totally wild and all-out.  Wouldn't surprise me if they didn't work with him to refine his delivery; but that a smoother, more controlled delivery that could throw strikes more consistently might be 4 mph slower, or whatever.   As always "maxing at" and "touching" is always different from normal pitching velocity. 

Derek Johnson had everybody throw within a variety of velocity ranges; them instructed them to *not* throw in their highest range, instead wanting them to throw within a range where they could throw with control and consistency, and without arm strain.  Obviously the high-end listings for Burl and Little are not descriptive of their control+consistency ranges. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 09:57:15 am
My issue with the Cubs draft for a long time is they typically sacrifice ceiling for a better floor.  The previous way they did was they took pitch-ability college starters, see almost all of their pitching picks when Theo was been in charge of this.  Burl is a strict reliever, with good stuff that it supposed to be close to the majors.  It is just a different way of sacrificing ceiling for what is thought to be a better floor.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 12, 2020, 09:57:36 am
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaR3DpfXQAIqu17?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 11:02:53 am
Cubs top 10 picks under Theo
2019- 3 HS, 5 college pitchers
2018- 3 HS, 3 college pitchers
2017- 2 HS, 7 college pitchers
2016- 7 college pitchers
2015- 2 HS, 5 college pitchers
2014- 3 HS, 5 college pitchers,
2013-1 HS, 6 college pitchers
2012- 5 HS , 4 college ptichers

35 college pitchers and only 4 have reached the majors, none higher than 2 fWAR in their career so far.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 12:09:35 pm
Cubs top 10 picks under Theo

35 college pitchers and only 4 have reached the majors, none higher than 2 fWAR in their career so far.

Thanks, yeah, that's really striking and bad.  So, who are the 4 who reached? 
*Godfrey is the biggest winner of that bunch? 
*Zastryzny?
*James Norwood? 
*Who's the other guy?  Pierce Johnson!!!

Man, that's really bad, especially given how many picks they've invested. 

I wonder if that isn't a combo of trying to be a little too enlightened and being a little too dumb?  They've run the statistics:  at least 10 years ago, the stats showed that it was harder to get good hitters outside round 1 than to get good pitchers.  And that there were a lot of big-league pitchers without knockout arms who'd come out of college after round 1.  So, they thought they were being smart.  But the actual scouting and development, it's just been 35 misses. 

Will be interesting to see how the pitch-lab era, and the reemphasis on higher-velocity guys, plays out.  Last year Jensen and McAvene are both power guys, what if we hit on one or both of those? 

I still don't really see either Burl or Little as being "high floor" guys.  As Maples shows, it doesn't matter how fast you throw and how sharp your breaking ball is; if you've got no control your floor is plenty low. 

So I guess I kinda see gambling on wild, big-arm guys with such tiny sample sizes and so very little indication of any control or consistency as being plenty low-floor. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 12:14:38 pm
I'm guessing all five will sign at around slot. 

Any other guesses? 
*If not, I assume Moreno would be the more likely overslot guy? 

If Moreno does get overslot, who would you guess agreed to sub-slot in order to fund Moreno? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 12:29:17 pm
Here more depressing drafting.  After the first round here are the fWAR leaders.
Zach Godley 6
Bolte 2.5
Daniel Ponce de Leon 1.2 (who the Cubs agreed to sign, but voided his contract over a physcial)

That is the list of guys above 1 career fWAR that the Cubs have drafted under Theo.

I though 2018 and 2019 the Cubs had turned a corner in the draft under Dorey.  This is a step back to me.  The best drafts are going to manage their risk, so take a high upside guy that might flame out and get some college guys to mix in.  The Cubs outside of a very few picks have risk adverse and I think that shows in their results. 

I think Moreno would be the 5% overage, assuming the Cubs have enough money to spend that.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 12, 2020, 12:31:51 pm
I would guess that 2, 3, and 4 are candidates for underslot, and that the Cubs were quite sure when they picked the 5th pick high school guy, exactly how much they had to spend on him.  Very few top 10 picks go unsigned by any teams these days, and the Cubs have been as good or better at this than the others.

Moreno, the high school pitcher, is in the same position as the Cubs, although on the other side of the coin.  It is difficult to take a high school pitcher because so many of them end up with arm trouble.  At the same time, it is difficult to turn down half a million dollars and risk getting nothing if your arm goes out in the next three years.  It is usually in the best interest of both sides to reach an agreement that both sides can live with.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 12, 2020, 12:48:38 pm
The question becomes, how many undrafted fee agents can the Cubs convince to sign ?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 01:04:47 pm
..I though 2018 and 2019 the Cubs had turned a corner in the draft under Dorey.  This is a step back to me.  The best drafts are going to manage their risk, so take a high upside guy that might flame out and get some college guys to mix in.  The Cubs outside of a very few picks have risk adverse and I think that shows in their results. 

I think Moreno would be the 5% overage, assuming the Cubs have enough money to spend that.

yeah, if 1-4 are just slot and Moreno gets the composite 5% overage, maybe that's all the overslot that he needed. 

Blue, it's a bummer for us as fans that this minor league season is lost.  Would have been a great chance to see the 18 draft play out:  is davis a top-end prospect?  Is Franklin a real prospect?  If Roederer a bust, or will he start to look he really is a prospect?  Is Hoerner a back-of-roster guy, or is he actually a capable rotation or starter-level big-league 2B? 

Last year's draft was stocked with college pitchers, so it would have been super interesting to see whether Jensen is just too chronically wild to get excited about, or is he actually a guy who might be really good?  And can he last and start, or is he pretty much relief-track, as most draftnicks kind of expected from him?  McAvene had some really nice numbers at Boise; can he actually pitch in full-season, or is he a chronic wildman who'd have been exposed quickly enough in full-season?  Clarke got zero draft pub, but his Boise numbers were great, he's young, and he's huge; might pitch lab and development get more velocity from him, and he'll be really good?  (Many of the system rankings had him as high or higher than McAvene this winter.)   How about Herz or Schaeffer, would any of them provide hints that they might become meaningful prospects? 

Would have been so interesting to get another year of info on all of those guys from the last two drafts. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 01:08:44 pm
The question becomes, how many undrafted fee agents can the Cubs convince to sign ?

I wonder how quickly those will get publicized or tweeted?  Harder to evaluate:  in past the signing bonus and the draft round gave more insight into who the Cubs liked and who were roster-fill. 

Other question:  will guys who sign, draftees and other, head down to Mesa and start training and practicing and getting coached?  Or is camp and pitch lab and development not even happening at all? 

Are Jensen and McAvene down in Mesa for months, working away on fields and in pitch lab and stuff and developing?  Or are they just hanging out at home spending their signing bonus money? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 12, 2020, 01:10:33 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  40m
Which player picked by the Cubs is "a good bet to be the first 2020 draftee to reach the big leagues"?
See what our Draft experts said in a round-up of their favorite pick for all 30 teams:


   
CUBSBurl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist (2nd round)

Carraway is a good bet to be the first 2020 draftee to reach the big leagues because he's a pure reliever with one of the best 1-2 punches available. He features high spin rates on a 93-98 mph fastball he throws by hitters up in the strike zone, as well as on a power curveball with excessive downward break.


https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-draft-pick-for-all-30-teams
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 01:37:19 pm
I wonder how quickly those will get publicized or tweeted?  Harder to evaluate:  in past the signing bonus and the draft round gave more insight into who the Cubs liked and who were roster-fill. 

Other question:  will guys who sign, draftees and other, head down to Mesa and start training and practicing and getting coached?  Or is camp and pitch lab and development not even happening at all? 

Are Jensen and McAvene down in Mesa for months, working away on fields and in pitch lab and stuff and developing?  Or are they just hanging out at home spending their signing bonus money? 

They can't sign anyone until Sunday and MLB.com will keep track of it. 

The complex isn't open to the players as far as I know.  There has been some talk about an extended fall league in Arizona, but that isn't looking likely right now with how poorly Arizona has been handling it.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 03:19:31 pm
https://bastian.mlblogs.com/i-think-its-a-great-fit-i-m-super-excited-q-a-with-burl-carraway-6f924b2307a

“He’s pretty special,” Heefner said. “He legitimately has two pitches that are borderline unhittable. The fastball and the curveball. It’s shocking that he didn’t go higher than he did, because with the Trackman data they have today, where you can compare guys to everybody across the country, I’ve heard several organizations say that his fastball and his breaking ball graded out the best in the whole Draft.”
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2020, 04:19:34 pm
Trackman’s top 4-seamer grades college 2020 draftees:

1. Carraway

4. Little
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 12, 2020, 04:42:24 pm
I think the last relief pitcher that the Cubs converted to a starter was Andrew Cashner.  He was fairly good for a while.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 12, 2020, 05:03:22 pm
I got to know Cashner pretty well.

He was a true Texas redneck who drove a jacked up truck.

He gave me a pair of Nike's once.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 12, 2020, 06:57:26 pm
Bleacher Report likes the Cub draft:  https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895870-2020-mlb-draft-results-easy-to-view-grades-for-each-franchise


Up there in the realm of surprising headlines with "Sun rises in the East".
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 07:40:33 pm
Trackman’s top 4-seamer grades college 2020 draftees:
1. Carraway
4. Little

Thanks, reb, very interesting.   And encouraging. 

That's for ANY college draftee?  Or among LHP only, some RHP might be higher? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 12, 2020, 09:34:47 pm
All college pitchers.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 12, 2020, 10:03:08 pm
Thanks, Blue.  That's pretty cool. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 13, 2020, 01:55:40 am
Lifted this from the Cubs Draft Tracker guy re. Koen Moreno, the HS 5th rounder.

Gave an interview with a local podcast guy.

Q: Do you have an idea if you're gonna if you're gonna pick between heading to college VCU and signing with the Cubs?

A: Yeah, so I mean, it's definitely you know, this draft is so different because, you know, they want kids to sign. So I believe that I am going to sign with the cubs. Um, so yeah
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 13, 2020, 05:19:01 am
Obviously planning to be an English major if he goes to college.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 13, 2020, 10:25:28 am
Dan Kantrovitz was on the Cubs Weekly podcast (Marquee Network) and they had Callis on after him.
-They went for tools because they believe in the player development system
-Burl has the stuff to get out major leaguers, but he still has things to do
-Little needs a lot of work. They are going to send him to the pitch lab and work on his delivery and pitches, but you can’t teach the velocity
-Nwogu needs to rework his swing, but a lot of power/speed
-He didn’t really touch a lot on the 5th rounder

Callis
-would rank Burl ahead of Jensen and Strumph (I wouldn’t he be closer to 15-17.  Relievers are relievers. Jensen could still start.
-Howard would be 4th ahead of Amaya.
-Really likes the 5th rounder and thought he wouldn’t be singable.

I like the focus on tools. They need to focus that on guys that could be a starting pitching. When you look at the Cubs starting prospects Franklin might be the only guy that doesn’t have reliever risk and has a ceiling higher than a fifth starter. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 13, 2020, 02:29:37 pm
The five picks tended on the young side. 
-Three are teenagers. 
-Burl and Nwogu are both young 21's,
*Burl just turned 21 two weeks ago,
*Nwogu in March. 

Likewise Nwogu and Burl seem perhaps developmentally younger than their ages. 

Seems like Hendry era again.  :) .
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Robb on June 13, 2020, 03:04:39 pm
I like this approach. Pitch-to-contact guys simply don't have much if any upside. In the past it was said that you can't teach velocity, but pitch labs and Driveline have roved that you can, indeed teach velocity to some. But that might be a higher risk than teaching control. At least with these low-floor high-ceilings guys you know they have the physical capacity to reach the upper speeds. If Little can find control and spin at 98-100 then he is a potential TOR guy. Better chance of that than teaching teaching Brendon Little to up his velocity and maintain control and stamina. Little will most likely flame out (pun intended) but if you draft 5 guys with this upside and one hits then you have already beaten every draft since Theo took over.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 13, 2020, 05:24:47 pm
Dan Kantrovitz was on the Cubs Weekly podcast (Marquee Network) and they had Callis on after him.
-They went for tools because they believe in the player development system
-Burl has the stuff to get out major leaguers, but he still has things to do
-Little needs a lot of work. They are going to send him to the pitch lab and work on his delivery and pitches, but you can’t teach the velocity
-Nwogu needs to rework his swing, but a lot of power/speed
-He didn’t really touch a lot on the 5th rounder

Here is the link to that interview: 
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-weekly-podcast-special-draft-edition-with-dan-kantrovitz-and-jim-callis/
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 13, 2020, 10:56:42 pm
Finally had time to listen to that interview.  Blue, your account was an excellent synopsis.  Kantrovitz was very enthusiastic about their picks; went after tools in the belief that the development system will make them work. 

Not knowing his personality, was hard to filter his positive message.  Might just be a Fleita.  But I expected him to tone down enthusiasm; he didn't really. 


*There have been thoughts that Little's notorious 105 wasn't really real in some way; Kantrovitz didn't doubt it, downplay it, or pooh-pooh it any ways, and seemed to accept the 105 as a real thing.  Sounded like he though the velocity was for real, and said that their scouts loves Little.  But otherwise sounded like they assume he'll pretty much need to be completely rebuilt in the pitch lab. 

*People have hyped Burl as this big-stuff ready-now guy. I expected K to downplay the hype; but he didn't really.  Has things to do, and don't want to rush him; but K seemed fine with the narrative that Burl might be ready very soon.  Surprised me; I assumed as with Little that he'd probably be viewed as a raw talent with a lot of pitch-lab reconstruction ahead.  K also notes that Burl is an enthusiastic, energetic guy, and that fans will like him. 
 
*Nwogu: talked up his capacity to control the strike zone and limit K's, which I found encouraging.  Assumed Nwogu would be a hit-lab project and would need to rebuild his swing.  K seemed pretty optimistic about Nwogu NOT being a big K-guy; power guys who don't K excessively are pretty valuable..  Callis was kind of surprised that Nwogu didn't strike out more given his swing; suggested that he must have some really good hand-eye coordination. 

*K also didn't back away from talking about Howard hitting for power. 

Callis was pretty positive about Moreno; almost like he thought he was too good to be signable. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 13, 2020, 11:26:18 pm
Are we really getting excited about the fact that a guy is enthusiastic about his own picks?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 14, 2020, 07:52:04 am
I like the focus on tools which is better than what they where doing.  I was just disappointed with the positions they choose.  If they had take Clayton Beeter instead of Burl, I'd be pretty happy with draft.  Beeter might end up as reliever, but he at least has a chance to start.

On Little velocity.  105 isn't impossible for him especially since there is confirmed trackman's of 101 and 102.  The number of guys that throw that hard is tiny, even smaller if you make it lefties.  Callis was implying that as a starter he was sitting 93-96 and only Max Fried was in that area as a lefty starter last year.  If they could pitch lab him a more consistent breaking ball and an off-speed pitch (change-up, forkball) letting him start could be a fun option, but it is probably easier to let him develop as a reliever.

If they use the tools approach to look for starting pitchers and are willing to dip into the high school ranks, then I think there is a lot of reason to be happy about what the Cubs are doing.  They won't hit on 100%, but even it is similar to their percentage they had a college pitchers I'd be happy.  The difference is instead of a reliever you could end up with an ace.

This draft is a B+ just getting Howard.  It could have been a lot better, but it could also have been a whole lot worse too in rounds 2-5. 


Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 14, 2020, 08:34:14 am
The other thing that I’m not probably factoring in is the minor leagues are getting contracted next year so the Cubs are going to lose an AZL team and the Eugene level team so inning might be harder to come by for players next year. The Cubs do a fair number of arms in the AZL range and South Bend’s rotation could get jammed up quickly.

I wonder if the Cubs could run what amounts to an instructional league in their complex of guys that aren’t ready for AZL team yet.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 14, 2020, 09:00:34 am
I'm good with judging and grading based on what you know at the time.  Totally fair. 

Obviously how the guys ACTUALLY play out is what will matter.  (Duh, super obvious.)

I think their are good chances that it will not play out great.  Pitch and hit labs, analytics and development are the buzz. 

But I'm hesitant to assume that analytics and pitch labs will convert wildmen into control artists.  Pretty good chance that wild is wild, and Burl and Little will just be too wild to be especially good. 

Hit lab seems even less likely to make bad hitters good.  Yes, to better utilize latent power, I believe it.  To make good hitters better, I believe it.

So yeah, who knows, down the line all of these guys might develop and be variably good, and it will look genius.  Or 5 years out, I might look back and say, "man, why waste picks on wildmen, can't fix that; and guy who can't process movement, you can't fix that."

Howard is different story, of course.  But who knows?  Maybe his shoulder problems will return, and we'll look back and say, "Man, why draft a SS who's just had shoulder problems?  Dumb."  Maybe the power will never come.  "Remember when they thought he'd hit for power?  What were they thinking?"  Maybe both heat and movement will have him hit like Russell with even less power, and he'll be hanging as a #8 hitter.  "Why did they think he'd hit?  Other scouts had noticed that he'd struggled some on the summer circuit against better pitching...."   And maybe his defensive range will limit him to being an average SS, kind of a SS Almora.  "Man, I know he gets what he can reach, but even pre-draft reports recognized that his range would be limited.  Why didn't they go for more ceiling than a limited-range defense-first guy with no power and a fringy bat?" 

We grade now based on perceptions now, that makes sense.  Obviously there are scenarios in which all 5 will fail and it will look like an F.  And scenarios in which all 5 succeed and it will look like A+.  Time will tell.  For now, I'm hoping for the best, that they've all got what it takes, and that cutting-edge development will bring out the very best in each of them and that it will be really good.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 14, 2020, 11:21:19 am
Brandon Beesley, OF, Cal Poly first Cubs UDFA. #429 on BA.

Lowest ranked signing so far on BA’s list
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 14, 2020, 11:50:02 am
Sounds like the second Cubs undrafted free agent signing might be Coastal Carolina shortstop Scott McKeon, a former Juco transfer who was off to a big spring before the season was cut short. Four home runs in 16 games after three bombs as a junior.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 14, 2020, 12:03:14 pm
From @CoastalBaseball, the Chicago #Cubs have signed both Scotty McKeon and Scott Kobos! Welcome boys! @Scotty_Mckeon2 @skoboz https://t.co/CAOtR3RRyu
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 14, 2020, 12:49:17 pm
Looks like the Cubs have also signed Angel Gonzalez, a high schooler out of Puerto Rico. He popped 94 MPH off the mound in a showcase event last year.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 14, 2020, 01:23:38 pm
Thanks for updates, Dusty.  Much appreciated.  :)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 14, 2020, 02:45:23 pm
Ben Leeper from Oklahoma State is a Cub.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 14, 2020, 03:09:31 pm
Graham Lawson RHP USC.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 14, 2020, 05:34:38 pm
Cubs signed Bailey Reid from Westown College an NAIA college. His Bio says he is 6-2, 205.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 14, 2020, 05:54:51 pm
Brandon Beesley, OF, Cal Poly first Cubs UDFA. #429 on BA. Lowest ranked signing so far on BA’s list

BA:

Bradlee Beesley
Cal Poly OF
Notes:
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.3

Beesley started all four years at Cal Poly and hit well in the Cape Cod League two years in a row while swinging a wood bat. He’s an undersized contact hitter who sprays the ball around. Beesley lacks power and could walk more, but he knows his game and gets the bat to the ball. Beesley is a plus runner with an above-average arm and plays an average center field. He has the tools and mature instincts to play all three outfield positions
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 14, 2020, 05:57:31 pm
Sounds like the second Cubs undrafted free agent signing might be Coastal Carolina shortstop Scott McKeon, a former Juco transfer who was off to a big spring before the season was cut short. Four home runs in 16 games after three bombs as a junior.

BA:

Scott McKeon
Coastal Carolina SS
Notes:
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Tigers '19 (21)
Age At Draft: 22.6

McKeon began his career at Brunswick (N.C.) JC, where he led the team in hitting with a .434 average as a freshman before hitting .339 in his sophomore campaign. His hitting ability translated just fine to Coastal Carolina and the Sun Belt Conference, as McKeon managed a .344/.407/.500 line in 79 games over the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Teams were interested in McKeon last year—the Tigers drafted him in the 21st round—but he returned to school for his final season and would have been a priority senior sign in the 5-10 round range in a normal year. Scouts see McKeon as a solid defender at shortstop and think he can stick there but have questions about whether his bat and offensive approach will translate to the pro game
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 14, 2020, 06:46:35 pm
BA:

Bradlee Beesley
Cal Poly OF
Notes:
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.3

Beesley started all four years at Cal Poly and hit well in the Cape Cod League two years in a row while swinging a wood bat. He’s an undersized contact hitter who sprays the ball around. Beesley lacks power and could walk more, but he knows his game and gets the bat to the ball. Beesley is a plus runner with an above-average arm and plays an average center field. He has the tools and mature instincts to play all three outfield positions

Glad we got him as a FA instead of the 2nd round. He sounds like Donnie Dewees with a good arm.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 15, 2020, 09:33:19 am
Hopefully we land SS Christian Hernandez and Catcher Moises Ballesteros as expected to round out this group of signees.

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/02/12/cubs-expected-to-sign-two-top-ifas-this-year-including-a-potential-no-1-overall/

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 15, 2020, 11:56:21 am
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/06/15/cubs-sign-duke-two-way-star-1b-rhp-matt-mervis/
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 15, 2020, 11:59:33 am
Are we really getting excited about the fact that a guy is enthusiastic about his own picks?

Heh heh, yes, kinda.  :) . I'm an optimistic fan, so I do get fired up.  :) .

But yeah, for my Green Bay Packers, for example, it's usually pretty easy to read from their comments whether they think a guy is a project who will take some time (Jordan Love), versus a ready-soon guy.  I expected all five Cub guys to be clearly communicated as projects who will take variably long time. 
*That was obviously true for Howard, Nwogo, Little, and moreno. 
*But I really was surprised that somebody as wild as Burl, with <50 college innings pitched, would be portrayed as a possible ready-soon guy. 

I always love to hear decision-makers explain their decisions. 
*We know every player has risk, and most fail;
*but you wouldn't spend one of only 5 picks on a guy who doesn't have some qualities that might make him valuable. 
*So hearing what qualities and talents a guy has that made the scouting director choose him is really interesting and fun. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: JR on June 15, 2020, 02:35:23 pm
Quote
Bob Nightengale

Matt Mervis, a first baseman/pitcher from Duke, signs for $20,000 with the #Cubs. He's a power left-handed bat, and power right-handed pitcher
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: JR on June 15, 2020, 02:36:44 pm
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2020/06/duke-baseball-mlb-draft-undrafted-free-agent-matt-mervis-chicago-cubs
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 17, 2020, 09:59:45 am
Sharma had an article on Carraway.

-His fastball spin rate was 2500 rpm averaging 97 mph.
-His curveball spin rate was  2650 at 79 mph. That would be top 20 for lefties in MLB
-In addition his elite spin rates his spin axis and efficiency is top notch as well.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Playtwo on June 17, 2020, 10:30:39 am
He throws seeds.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 17, 2020, 12:01:36 pm
I can’t believe we had to wait this long for that!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: jacey1 on June 17, 2020, 12:09:57 pm
Sharma had an article on Carraway.

-His fastball spin rate was 2500 rpm averaging 97 mph.
-His curveball spin rate was  2650 at 79 mph. That would be top 20 for lefties in MLB
-In addition his elite spin rates his spin axis and efficiency is top notch as well.


BUT CAN HE PITCH???
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 17, 2020, 12:21:03 pm
https://theathletic.com/1871468/2020/06/14/what-did-we-learn-from-the-cubs-draft-jordan-nwogu-is-one-of-a-few-upside-bets/

Nwogu article: 
“Jordan has a lot of really, really interesting traits,” said John Pedrotty, an area scout .... “(Jordan’s) swing is a little unorthodox right now, but some of the brightest hitting guys in our organization have really liked how quick he is to the ball. All those movements that seem a little unorthodox — we think it’s kind of untapped power potential in there that is waiting to be unlocked.”

As Pedrotty mentioned, the swing needs polish, with scouts around baseball suggesting it’s not the most aesthetically pleasing. It’s a choppy swing that can be exposed by breaking balls and quality fastballs up in the zone... 

But while it may not look the way a swing is typically supposed to, ... strikeouts never were really a concern. His career strikeout rate of 18.3 percent dropped each year at Michigan.
=============

Helpful to read their views.  Consistent with what we've heard last week, that his present swing is problematic, but that they think it may be correctible.  We'll see.  The one view is that having been productive and having limited his K's, despite his crummy swing, perhaps suggests that there's mental, hand-eye quickness to be able to work around his faulty swing.  Takes talent to overcome a bad swing.  So maybe there's a really talented hitter disguised by the lousy swing, and once they fix that all the talent will come out. 

Still, changing a swing isn't easy, I don't think.  Making tweaks is one thing, serious revision of a swing may be harder. 

I also think "oh, only 18% K-rate, K's aren't a problem" may be too optimistic.  18% isn't exactly small, and the NL is NOT the Big Ten.  A guy who K'd 18% against college pitching might K like Brett Jackson in the pros.  Plus if he's got specific holes in his swing, big-league scouting might identify those holes in a way that college scouting doesn't. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 17, 2020, 12:49:02 pm
Sharma had an article on Carraway.
-His fastball spin rate was 2500 rpm averaging 97 mph.
-His curveball spin rate was  2650 at 79 mph. That would be top 20 for lefties in MLB

https://theathletic.com/1876278/2020/06/17/our-fans-are-going-to-love-him-can-burl-carraway-be-elite-for-the-cubs/

Seems like a pretty confident, ambitious guy.  Seems to have a middling view on technology.  Positive about development and technology and understanding stuff, but in an earlier quote he'd said something about now wanting to think too much.  Perhaps that's a good perspective: When you get behind a better 2-0, I don't imagine you totally want to be introspectively analyzing everything about your mechanics.  But being willing and able to receive input from the analytics guys, I'd think that would be help.  (Work on strengthening your lower back a little bit.  Your spin is most effective at arm-angle X; your spin and your control declines when that arm angle drifts, and it's been drifting more often lately... )

Burl notes that he pitched back-to-back and had some 3-appearance week(s).  Kantro also noted that his pitch stats actually looked as good or better then he did 2-inning work.  It took Carl Edwards a couple of years before they'd use him back to back, and he never pitched two innings.  So the concept that Burl might be used back-to-back and perhaps have some 2-inning outings like Hader, that could be nice.  *IF* he's actually good. 

Kantro:  "he’s never going to be a guy that’s painting corners."  Might-be-a-Maples will remain an open question for a while, I think. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 17, 2020, 01:08:45 pm


Kantro:  "he’s never going to be a guy that’s painting corners."  Might-be-a-Maples will remain an open question for a while, I think. 

He might be the Maples we hoped for, just enough control to get by with nasty stuff.  I'm still not convinced that taking a reliever in the second round is a good value, but I'm not paid to make those choices.  I think to get value out of that pick he is going to have to be an elite closer, even just a Strop level reliever might be wasted value.


Still, changing a swing isn't easy, I don't think.  Making tweaks is one thing, serious revision of a swing may be harder. 

I also think "oh, only 18% K-rate, K's aren't a problem" may be too optimistic.  18% isn't exactly small, and the NL is NOT the Big Ten.  A guy who K'd 18% against college pitching might K like Brett Jackson in the pros.  Plus if he's got specific holes in his swing, big-league scouting might identify those holes in a way that college scouting doesn't. 

Cubs reportedly changed Hoerner, Davis and Roderer's swings after they drafted them and that was before integrating Stone.  Nwogo has had 3 different swings and stances at Michigan, so he takes to coaching and has hit well.  He might bust, but in the third round that seems like a good value. 

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 17, 2020, 02:10:00 pm
I agree on Nwogu, the risk is certainly real; but for a 3rd rounder, the potential payoff seems like a good value, and justifies the risk.   

None of the reports have been favorable about his defense.  Consensus bad arm, and general sense that his routes and jumps and instincts are variably poor. 

Makes me wonder about DH?  DH was discussed to be included if they do hypothetically have a Covid season this year.  I wonder if in the next CBA, before Nwogu comes up, if there's any chance of finally getting the DH for good?  Probably not (with all of the heavy fighting to be done over money, I'm not sure they'll choose to spend any time discussing something like DH).  But *if* DH comes, that could make Nwogu more valuable to us.  If Schwarber was to extend, there'd not be room for two starting bad-fielding left fielders.  But if Nwogu could hit enough so that you'd want him in the lineup, being able to DH would be nice, or being able to move Schwarber to DH if Nwogu ends up becoming the better defensive LF. 

Blue, I don't really agree with the non-closer-reliever-is-wasted-value.  If he's just a mediocre wildman reliever, yes.  But if you've got a really high-end quality setup reliever, I think the value could be good.  Even more so if he's a guy who will go two innings sometimes.  Strop would typically appear in 60 or more games.  Josh Hader is obviously a unicorn, but he's thrown around 80 innings per season the last two years, with 15-20 more innings than appearances, so lots of 2-inning outings.  Seems to me that if you had a high-quality 60-80 inning guy in relief, I'd consider that to be excellent value for a 2nd-round selection. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 17, 2020, 03:16:18 pm
I think most teams would be quite happy to get Josh Hader in the second round of the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 17, 2020, 03:46:38 pm
Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.

Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.

The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting up for Randy Myers.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 17, 2020, 04:17:02 pm
Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.

Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.

The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting up for Randy Myers.

Yup, fun examples, great memories!  I think the "if dominant" is kind of a limiter, though?  Being very good is one thing; being Hader, Dibble or 1989-Lancaster is kind of remote. 

The other limiter with all three of Hader, Dibble, and 89-Lancaster is the usage.  All three of those are multi-inning guys. 
Dibble had 98 innings (98IP/68G):  that's 30 "extra" innings.
Lancaster:  73IP/42G, 31 "extra" innings.
Hader:  ~80 innings, ~15-20 "extra" innings per year. 

The vast majority of relievers in today's usage are single-inning guys.  Relievers who are routinely pitching "extra" innings and accruing 80 or more innings are very unusual. 

*If* Burl ends up being so special that he's both dominant in the innings he gets; AND is so rubber-armed that his manager is going to throw him for ≥80 innings and ≥15 "extra" inning outings per year, that will be a VERY unusual and VERY special weapon. 

I'm an optimistic Cubs fan, for sure, and I hope Burl ends up being phenomenal.  But I think it's pretty unlikely that he'll be THAT special, or that the Cubs will have a manager who is unusual enough to be using him for lots of "extra" inning outings.  It sure wouldn't be Maddon doing that, that's for sure. 

Heh heh, I think Blue's original point was that unless he's so great that he becomes a closer, that being a good setup reliever isn't going to be great value.  Lancaster's year was obviously a fluke.  And setups phenomenal enough to be Hader and Dibble, they pretty much satisfied Blue's greatness critereon, and quickly enough become closers. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 17, 2020, 04:23:10 pm
I should have said an elite reliever. Hader is elite weather he closes or he doesn’t.

Strop was a good reliever for the Cubs. He was a throw in for Feldman. The Cubs have found multiple good relievers at basically no cost.

9 relievers where worth 2 fWAR in 2019, 50 starters reached that level.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 19, 2020, 12:28:18 pm
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-draftee-luke-little-eager-to-begin-career
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2020, 03:28:45 pm
Fangraphs redone prospect ranks
Howard #5  (45+)
Carraway #11 (40+)
Little #38 (35+)
Ngwo #40 (35+)
Moreno #43 (35+)

The number in there parenthesis is FV. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 21, 2020, 03:14:35 pm
Mooney is replying Howard will sign for slot.

Callis has the Cubs with 2/15 top UDFA signings.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 21, 2020, 05:36:42 pm
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/06/cubs-sign-first-round-pick-ed-howard.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 22, 2020, 07:23:35 am
Mooney is replying Howard will sign for slot.

Callis has the Cubs with 2/15 top UDFA signings.

BA has Bradlee Beesley at #13 and Scott McKeon at #15. Those were their only Cubs in the top 20.  The Phillies have 5 of the Top 20.

Chicago Cubs

Bradlee Beesley, OF, Cal Poly | Scouting report (No. 429 on the BA 500) | No. 6 on top undrafted seniors list
Scott McKeon, INF, Coastal Carolina | Link | Scouting report (No. 438 on BA 500) | No. 10 on top undrafted seniors list
Scott Kobos, LHP, Coastal Carolina | Link
Graham Lawson, RHP, South Carolina | Link
Ben Leeper, RHP, Oklahoma State | Link
Bailey Reid, RHP, Westmont (Calif.) | Link
Jacob Wetzel, OF, Frederick (Md.) JC | Link
Matt Mervis, 1B/RHP, Duke | Link | No. 17 on top undrafted seniors list
Sam Thoresen, RHP, Minnesota
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 22, 2020, 07:43:57 am
jhawk, that list includes one JC guy, Wetzel.  I'm interested, because a 19-year old, who knows what unseen, untapped potential he might hypothetically have. 

That list does NOT include the 17-year-old Puerto Rican pitcher, who had already reportedly touched 94.  I wonder if he just didn't get included for some random reason, or if something happened to squelch his signing?  Being young and having at least some decent velocity to start with, his youth also made him more interesting to me, as possible big-league prospect. 

I assume most of the senior signs are more organizational guys, probably without actual big-league potential.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Ron on June 24, 2020, 11:18:54 am
Mooney with a very enthusiastic piece on Ed Howard.
https://theathletic.com/1887147/2020/06/23/why-the-cubs-are-betting-on-ed-howard-a-first-round-pick-years-in-the-making/?source=dailyemail
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 24, 2020, 12:22:37 pm
Howard sounds like a class young man.  Best wishes to him and his career.  Sounds like a personality and worker who is likely to get the most out of his ability.  Hopefully he's got tons of talent ready to be untapped.  With the bat a well as defense. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 24, 2020, 02:55:47 pm
The video I've seen, he looks smooth as silk already in the field...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2020, 03:20:17 pm
Not the draft but BA piece on Cubs likely top international signing:

Meet Cristian Hernandez, The Cubs International Target Some Call 'Baby A-Rod'
By Josh Norris on June 24, 2020
   
One of the top players available in this year’s international class, Cristian Hernandez has earned plenty of accolades for a swing that has drawn comparisons with Manny Machado and an all-around game that reminds some of a young Alex Rodriguez.

Even so, Hernandez said his most memorable moment in baseball came not in the batter’s box, but on the mound.

Playing as a 12-year-old in a tournament in the Dominican Republic, Hernandez—who was a do-everything utility player back then—was on the mound late in a game when his coach gave him the hook and sent him to second base.

The pitcher who relieved Hernandez gave up the runs that eventually cost his team the game and its spot in the tournament. Years later, the moment still stings.

“That’s something I haven’t forgotten,” Hernandez said, with the help of a translator, “because it really hurt me a lot to lose that tournament.”

Hernandez’s pitching days are behind him now, and he is widely expected to sign a seven-figure deal with the Cubs once the international signing period opens. Normally, that would happen on July 2, but the coronavirus pandemic has shaken up everything in the sport. The international signing period is no exception. It has been pushed back to Jan. 15.

All Hernandez can do is wait and stay as ready as possible. He’s continuing to work out to the best of his abilities in the Dominican Republic and has gotten to a field as often as possible. Mostly, though, he’s trying to stay patient, which isn’t always easy.

“I’ve been staying in shape, working out at home and doing my exercise routines,” he said. “I do feel a little anxious waiting for some news on when the day I’m going to sign will be. I’m a little nervous and anxious because there’s so much unknown out there.”

The most talented Dominican shortstop in this year’s class, Hernandez will earn his bonus thanks to a combination of a powerful bat and a body that looks like it will add strength without forcing him to move off shortstop.

If the Cubs do officially sign him, Hernandez will join a deep and talented collection of middle infielders, from 2018 first-rounder Nico Hoerner (who made his big league debut at the end of 2019 after just 89 minor league games) to upstarts like Pedro Martinez, Rafael Morel, Fabian Pertuz and Aramis Ademan.

That list also includes Kevin Made, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, whom the Cubs inked for $1 million last July.

Like many top prospects, Hernandez honed his game by playing against competition a level or two above his age group.

“It’s not the same to compete against players my own age than it is competing against players who are a level or two higher than me, players who are older and bigger and stronger,” Hernandez said. “Around 12 years old, I kind of rose to the level of the older guys, but when I was 10 and 11 years old I was already playing at the higher category.”

Hernandez’s mom got him into the game, and he’s been in love ever since. He didn’t play any other sports growing up, and he has had so much success on the diamond that he simply cannot recall the first time he hit a home run.

“From the minute I started playing, I became obsessed with it,” said Hernandez, who quickly began opening eyes. “Around 11 years old, I would hear it from my coaches and I could see that my tools and abilities were special.”

Obviously, other people began agreeing with that assessment. Just two players in this year’s international signing class are likely to command a larger signing bonus than Hernandez. Those players are Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon and fellow Dominican shortstop Armando Cruz, who are expected to ink with the Astros and Nationals.

Though other teams’ boards might differ somewhat, all would agree that Hernandez’s potential to hit for average and power while potentially remaining at shortstop makes him one of the top talents in the class.

“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

The swing that produces that power, the one that has reminded others of Machado, has come without much outside molding. He doesn’t have access to the technology—Rapsodo, TrackMan and the like—that he will once he signs and reports to an major league organization’s complex, so he’s just done what’s come naturally.

So far, it’s worked.

“My swing has been natural forever. I’ve always tried to make it better and work hard to gain strength and bat speed,” Hernandez said. “I’ve realized my swing is very similar to Machado’s. There’s a lot of comps between our swings, but that was never intentional.”

To earn even passing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez and Machado, one has to have power. Even at 15 years old, Hernandez’s thump is obvious.

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”
Hernandez’s body appearing to remain the same year over year could work in his favor. Too much extra muscle could push him to third base—where his power would still profile but his overall value would take a small hit.

If he can balance strength and litheness as he matures, Hernandez could quickly prove his most optimistic evaluators correct.

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

As soon as the international signing period could be delayed, it was delayed. And that expected outcome—that the period will open on Jan. 15—became official on June 15.

But when that day comes, Hernandez will be ready to prove he’s worthy of the hype
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 24, 2020, 09:29:44 pm
I love the pick of Howard, and I am glad they picked him.  But when I read the scouting reports on him, I get the feeling that you can change the position to center field and the name to Almora, they would fit the scouting reports on HIM when drafted.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 25, 2020, 01:40:14 pm
Jon Heyman  @JonHeyman  54m
Zac Veen, OF from Port Orange, Fla., signs with Rockies for $5M. Pick No. 9 overall.

At first I thought this was prank that Heyman fell for, but, no

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaMJWy6XYAEY4mc?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 25, 2020, 01:42:10 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  7m
The Cubs announce they that have signed Draft picks Burl Carraway (second round), Luke Little (fourth round) and Koen Moreno (fifth round). U-M outfielder Jordan Nwogu remains unsigned.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Bennett on June 25, 2020, 01:55:11 pm
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  3m
Cubs bonus info for the three signings today:

Carraway: $1,050,000
Little: $492,700
Moreno: $900,000

That's under slot for Carraway, at slot for Little and above for Moreno.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 25, 2020, 02:23:40 pm
Thanks, Bennett, that's really interesting.  I'd figured they'd all just go slot, and Moreno would just college the overage.  But that's a pretty big overslot bonus for him, that puts him only a little behind Carraway.  I hadn't actually anticipated that Carraway was going to go sub-slot.  Kind of glad the Cubs worked it that way. 

Cubs have taken a fair number of super-slot HS guys over the years.  I think they're maybe due for one or more of those to click.  Most really haven't...  If I round off Moreno to $1M, who are the other ≥$1M-ish superslot HS guys in recent years? 
2014:  Sands (bust), Steele (wildman, not looking to work out, although not done yet...), and Cease (best success, although in terms of Cubs value, all he got was a lesser sliver of mediocre Quintana)
2015:  Hudson (bust)
2017:  Estrada (nothing yet...)

I'd think maybe we're do to hit on one of these guys!  Moreno, why not you? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 25, 2020, 02:26:12 pm
That doesn't quite exhaust their overage money.  Not sure Nwogu has much claim for any overslot, but *if* they wanted to, I think they could still superslot him by almost $200K, *if* they wanted to spend every allowable dollar. 

I wonder how the negotiation with carraway went?  Was he tops on their board, PLUS willing to sub-slot?  Win-win?  Or were there three other guys they called who they liked just as well, but they all wanted at least slot, or maybe more? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 25, 2020, 04:45:19 pm
Moreno’s bonus is closest to slot bonus #70 overall, which was a 2nd round compensation pick.

So, got some value there in 5th round.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 26, 2020, 07:59:32 am
Not sure if we paid him $1M but pretty sure we went over slot on DJ Wilson who I always felt was a waste even if we only gave him slot.

Unfortunately I can’t say I am a huge fan of the Ed Howard pick. I think he will play a nice SS but I question whether he will hit enough. Hope I’m wrong Bc he seems like a great kid.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 26, 2020, 09:13:42 am
Not sure if we paid him $1M but pretty sure we went over slot on DJ Wilson who I always felt was a waste even if we only gave him slot.

Unfortunately I can’t say I am a huge fan of the Ed Howard pick. I think he will play a nice SS but I question whether he will hit enough. Hope I’m wrong Bc he seems like a great kid.

Wilson was $1.3M.  To my recall, he's the only non-HS draftee who got the superslot million, at least since back in the Maples/Dunston era when spending was uncapped. 

Do you follow HS baseball in Chicago area enough to have seen Howard in games?  Just curious.  I think your comment is on point, that he seems like a great kid, and the reports on his defense are really favorable; but in the end, as with any player, how valuable he'll end up being will largely depend on the bat. 

Heh heh, as the Wilson example perhaps reflects.  If defense, attitude, effort, character, and work ethic were enough to make a good player, we'd have our center-field situation solved.  But hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and perhaps the hardest to project. 

Hopefully Howard really will have it, and the Cubs have some evaluation resources to be able to both project hitting capacity and to optimize hitting skills better now than has tended to be true in the past.   
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 26, 2020, 09:46:40 am
Wilson was $1.3M.  To my recall, he's the only non-HS draftee who got the superslot million, at least since back in the Maples/Dunston era when spending was uncapped. 

Do you follow HS baseball in Chicago area enough to have seen Howard in games?  Just curious.  I think your comment is on point, that he seems like a great kid, and the reports on his defense are really favorable; but in the end, as with any player, how valuable he'll end up being will largely depend on the bat. 

Heh heh, as the Wilson example perhaps reflects.  If defense, attitude, effort, character, and work ethic were enough to make a good player, we'd have our center-field situation solved.  But hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and perhaps the hardest to project. 

Hopefully Howard really will have it, and the Cubs have some evaluation resources to be able to both project hitting capacity and to optimize hitting skills better now than has tended to be true in the past.

I haven't seen him play in HS, but he played against some kids I know (who happened to be average HS pitchers).  He was a combined 1-8 with a couple Ks against kids who aren't moving on.  One of them can't break 80 on a radar gun.

Truthfully I don't think hitting is that difficult to project.  I think it is like everything else other than health.  If a guy can hit you will know it early on.  Great athletes who don't hit are routinely selected early for their athleticism and expectation that they will become great hitters due to said athleticism.  Routinely they suck as hitters because hitting isn't necessarily about athleticism.  I don't care how "pretty" a swing may appear to be.  How does the ball come off the bat and how often does it come off the bat?  Give me the player who squares up baseballs without regard for athleticism (assuming he can be sufficient in the field or as a DH) and I will take that guy in the box over the athlete.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 26, 2020, 10:53:08 am
I've heard people speculate that hitters that are on the show circuit can have trouble with hitting off of sub par guys.  They send so much time getting geared up to to hit 90's with good breaking balls that junk is hard to hit.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Playtwo on June 26, 2020, 11:11:41 am
Athleticism is an important asset for a SS, IMO.  If Howard is outstanding defensively, he can be successful without being more than average offensively.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 26, 2020, 07:29:36 pm
Athleticism is an important asset for a SS, IMO.  If Howard is outstanding defensively, he can be successful without being more than average offensively.

But that's not a guy you take in the middle of the first round.

Now - is that Howard?  I don't know.  I think he has enough offensive upside to be better than average, and more defensive athleticism relative to position than Almora in CF.  But drafting high schoolers is a crapshoot.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 26, 2020, 07:42:19 pm
Almora’s problem his plate discipline and making too much contact on bad pitches.

Equating him to Howard without even having a senior year film on high seems risky.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 26, 2020, 10:10:05 pm
I've heard people speculate that hitters that are on the show circuit can have trouble with hitting off of sub par guys.  They send so much time getting geared up to to hit 90's with good breaking balls that junk is hard to hit.

100%. My kid is playing in a tournament this weekend and through 2 games he hasn't seen a pitcher that has topped 70 (he is used to seeing 80+).  He hasn't pounded a fair ball yet.  He has pulled some foul.  Definitely takes some adjusting.  Hence SOME of the success of Kyle Hendricks. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 27, 2020, 07:57:58 am
Howard also hit .396/.478./.625 with a bum shoulder in high school. He didn’t exactly struggle.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 28, 2020, 06:48:22 am
Those numbers indicate that he didn’t struggle but they are Chicagoland HS numbers. I would imagine every decent team has 2-3 guys with BAs above .400.

I did check his Gamechanger and it shows a slash line of .421/.514/.684 so even better than what you posted. Of concern is 18 Ks (15 swinging) in 138 PAs along with 14 errors in 141 fielding chances.

I’m fine with the selection as the “experts” all agree that Howard fits in that slot but he doesn’t seem to be as sure a pick as Ryan Harvey, Luis Montanez or Earl Cunningham. 😁

The draft is a crapshoot where you weigh strengths (both apparent and projected) vs weaknesses. Hopefully this one works out though there are some red flags.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2020, 08:44:40 am
He also had a shoulder issue his junior year.  This year is even more of crap shoot because we don’t have any senior video on him.

I like the pick. A good fielding SS with even a slightly below average bat is a 3 WAR player and Howard has the ability to be a lot more than that.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Dave23 on June 28, 2020, 10:57:00 am
It’s all relative without knowing the level of competition he faced.

If my son had only faced Memphis inner city programs, he would have probably hit .600/.800/.800.

We usually played our JV players against them, though...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2020, 12:40:59 pm
No idea what his competition level was, but he played in the Chicago Catholic League. I’m going to guess that is significantly egged than the public school league.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CurtOne on June 28, 2020, 12:57:30 pm
Illinois state high school playoff history.   Notice in the mid 90's things began to shift toward the bottom half of the state.  Very few Chicago teams, public or private.  After going to 4 levels, a lot of dominance by Southern Illinois teams.   

https://www.ihsa.org/Sports-Activities/Boys-Baseball/Records-History
click on Champions and Runners-up
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2020, 01:12:20 pm
2/16 teams in 2019 playoffs where Chicago Catholic schools. I don’t really know a lot about Chicago baseball, but I’m going to guess that the Chicago Catholic schools are going to better teams than the inner school teams.

 Baseball is expensive and people that can afford a Catholic school are going  to be able afford baseball. Those that can’t afford it are going to be good enough to get financial aid..
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Jack Birdbath on June 28, 2020, 01:24:13 pm
1A and 2A will very rarely have a Chicago area team.  And then, because of the sectional format, it would be nearly impossible to get more than one Chicago team through to the state semifinals.  The format forces a downstate team, a central/western team, a city team, and a suburban team in the bigger classes. With 4A they might get an extra city or suburban team just because that’s where the biggest schools are. If they did a straight seeding, I suspect the Catholic league, western and northern suburban schools would dominate. It’s the same thing that is happening with football since they moved to a seeding for the top divisions. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: CurtOne on June 28, 2020, 01:24:25 pm
CBJ, 2 of 16 is not impressive.  There will be 2 of 16 every year.  2 of the 16 final districts are in Chicago. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on June 28, 2020, 05:49:31 pm

...I’m fine with the selection as the “experts” all agree that Howard fits in that slot but he doesn’t seem to be as sure a pick as Ryan Harvey, Luis Montanez or Earl Cunningham. 😁


I know you're joking but wanted to point out that when Cunningham was drafted in 1989, the national HS showcases were not as prevalent and was a harder read for all clubs to get a fix on HS hitters.  There were two HS OFers in 1989 drafted ahead of Cunningham who also washed out.  None of the three ever made it past AA.  One of the three, Jeff Jackson, was the 4th overall pick from a Chicago HS, Simeon, that has had many guys drafted by MLB over the years but only one has made the majors, Wes Chamberlain, drafted a few years before Jackson.

It's still a crapshoot with HS guys of course but maybe there's a bit more info these days, at least when you can scout a guy his senior season too. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: chgojhawk on June 28, 2020, 10:03:21 pm
You are correct that I was joking.

There is far more information available from websites but it is still difficult to see all of the talent. A kid can hit .800 for a season but go 0-4 with 3 Ks when the scout sees him and it turns out he was up all night sick. Who knows.

As I said.....I’m good with the Howard selection. I think it will work out.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 29, 2020, 09:54:18 am
https://theathletic.com/podcast/37-onto-waveland/?episode=84

Nice interview with Burl.  Very well-spoken young man. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: craig on June 30, 2020, 01:53:38 pm
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/06/30/new-cubs-related-podcast-cubs-second-round-pick-burl-carraway-talks-spin-rate-new-slider/

Yet another Burl interview.  Very well-spoken as usual.  If I was to listen to just one of his, this would be the one.  More technical about his stuff. 

Obviously very well versed in spin rate, tunnelling, spin angle, rapsodo, etc..  Seems like a thoughtful guy who will be very receptive to try to use analytics insights to improve his effectiveness. 

The big curveball is the hardest pitch in baseball to throw for strikes.  Having a good-spin curveball is appealing; but if he can rarely throw the curve for strikes, how's he going to thrive? 

So I was particularly interested with his goal of adding a slider.  Said Kershaw talked about the value of the slider: much easier to throw for strikes, and more side-to-side than vertical movement.  I appreciated that Burl realized adding a 3rd pitch with less break and more strikes than the curveball would be really useful for him. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Deeg on June 30, 2020, 04:58:27 pm
Hopefully next season he gets on a roll.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: guest61 on June 30, 2020, 05:19:55 pm
I like Carraway.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: davep on June 30, 2020, 06:42:10 pm
Hopefully next season he gets on a roll.

It could be this season.  They still have about 10 slots to fill.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2020
Post by: Reb on July 21, 2020, 11:06:57 pm
Cubs finalize deal with 3rd rounder Jordan Nwogu.

Signs for slot. Not sure why the signing delay, given that he signed for slot. 3 of Cubs 5 picks signed exactly at slot.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-nwogu-mlb-draft-pick-signs-with-cubs