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General Category => Archives => Topic started by: mO on April 18, 2021, 06:30:24 pm

Title: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: mO on April 18, 2021, 06:30:24 pm
How will they blow it this time?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on May 27, 2021, 11:52:00 pm
Keith Law says, in his first mock draft, that Cubs “strongly linked” to this HS OFer in first round.

21. Chicago Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) HS

Taylor is the biggest wild card in the draft — he still hasn’t really indicated whether he wants to play baseball or would rather go to Clemson to play football (as a six-foot, 175-pound receiver?), and also isn’t working with an adviser yet, which is very unusual. If he does say “let’s do that baseball,” he’s going to get $2 million-plus, and the Cubs have been strongly linked to him.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Deeg on May 28, 2021, 01:00:48 am
Taylor is a quarterback.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on May 28, 2021, 06:59:34 am
Sounds like Clemson is going to switch him to WR eventually.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Bennett on July 10, 2021, 05:05:16 pm
Day 1 of the 2021 Draft will take place live from Denver’s Bellco Theatre on Sunday. It will feature the first 36 picks and will air on MLB Network and ESPN at 6 p.m. CT. Day 2, which will span rounds 2-10, begins at noon CT on Monday. The Draft will conclude with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday, starting at 11 a.m. CT. MLB.com will simulcast MLB Network’s broadcast and provide live coverage on all three days.

https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-2021-mlb-draft-preview
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 11, 2021, 06:30:41 pm
Does anyone remember a draft where there has been less interest on this board than this one?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 11, 2021, 06:33:36 pm
Does anyone remember a draft where there has been less interest on this board than this one?
  The NHL draft of 1956
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 11, 2021, 06:43:22 pm
That was just because you were the only one on the board.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 11, 2021, 07:00:42 pm
I’m hoping for Gunnar Hoglund.

He would have been top 10 before TJS.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 11, 2021, 07:11:56 pm
Davis becomes the second Louisville catcher drafted in the first round in recent years after Dodgers catcher Will Smith, and also becomes the second catcher drafted first overall in the past three years after the Baltimore Orioles took Oregon State backstop Adley Rutschman in 2019. Before that, the last catcher drafted first overall was Joe Mauer, taken by the Minnesota Twins in 2001. Only three others catchers have gone with the first pick -- Steve Chilcott in 1966, Mike Ivie in 1970, and Danny Goodwin, who was twice drafted first, in 1971 and 1975.

from ESPN ....Schwarber?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 11, 2021, 07:15:15 pm
Mets just got a steal at #10.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 11, 2021, 08:24:49 pm
Taylor, Solometo, or Montgomery?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2021, 08:26:27 pm
Wicks from Kansas State. Hopefully they can add velocity.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 11, 2021, 08:26:42 pm
OK
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 11, 2021, 08:30:12 pm
Jordan Wicks
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 11, 2021, 08:31:40 pm
They say he has the best change up in the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 11, 2021, 08:33:11 pm
Facially, Wicks looks a lot like Steele.  Funny.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2021, 08:33:29 pm
Fangraphs
2300 RPM, fastball. 2350 on breaking ball. Rise on fastball
88-92, top 93
40/45 fastball, 45/50 slider, 40/45 curve, 60/70 change, 35/60 command.

Kiley McDaniel said he was up to 96.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2021, 08:36:33 pm
Cubs prospects had him 92-93 in the start he watched.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: ticohans on July 11, 2021, 08:40:36 pm
I haven’t been following the lead up to the draft at all, but seems like Wicks fell a little bit to us. Looks like most had him going in the teens.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: ben on July 11, 2021, 08:46:05 pm
The MLB crew hypes every pick, but the consensus was that he's very competitive and has solid MLB starter stuff.

Someone threw out "Jon Lester with Cole Hammels' change up."

Who the heck knows, but seems like a solid pick.  Nice that he's LH and that he already has a plus change!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2021, 08:50:35 pm
Here hoping he’s 92-93 consistently and pitching development can jump that to 94-95. Turn the slider into a cutter, revamp the curve, keep the change up and command and he gets really interesting.

He should move really fast as well.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2021, 09:18:55 pm
Reid Detmers was a similar type lefty last draft. In the write up on the futures game Law reported that Detmers has been hitting 97 in starts.

Krantovich said Wicks was a top 10 pick on the Cubs board.

Ty Madden from Texas is really falling. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Deeg on July 11, 2021, 10:37:56 pm
Solid, unspectacular, safe pick.  To an extent polish and high floor over star potential. Not a reach where we took him.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 11, 2021, 10:39:43 pm
Thanks for draft input, guys. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 11, 2021, 11:17:48 pm
Really expected that Cubs would take a HS position player first round but seems like they were surprised Wicks was still on the board at 21.

Pick makes sense. Cubs sure can use a quick-rising rotation piece.

Wonder if Wick and Wieck will still be around if/when Wicks gets to majors. That’s about 50 hours of material for Boog right there.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Deeg on July 11, 2021, 11:21:22 pm
Interesting quirk - nine years after the A’s drafted Max Muncy, they drafted Max Muncy.  Both men were born on 8/25.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 07:55:56 am
..Day 2, which will span rounds 2-10, begins at noon CT on Monday. The Draft will conclude with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday, starting at 11 a.m. CT. MLB.com will simulcast MLB Network’s broadcast and provide live coverage on all three days.

https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-2021-mlb-draft-preview
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 08:53:31 am
Lefties with good changeups and command tend to find some way into big league rotations and Wicks is exactly that kind of prospect.  The Cubs have recently been able to coax more velo out of their prospect arms, even many of the older ones, so Wicks may be fed some magic Italian beef sandwich that makes him sit in the mid-90s. - Eric Longenhagen
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 09:17:43 am
I don't know anything, but my perception is that it's easier to pitch-lab invent/tweak/develop/improve a breaking ball than a change.  So the optimist in me thinks that suppose you're choosing between two rotation prospects: one has a good breaking ball but not a change, the other a good change but seemingly not a breaking pitch (Wicks).  I think I'd probably rather go with the guy who needs to conjure up a good breaking ball rather than the one who needs to conjure up a change? 

Velocity-wise, the reports said he touched 95 every game, but was resting 92-94.  In today's game, that's kind of pedestrian velocity.  Still, I'd think a commanded 92-94 is functional and usable.  I thought some reports referred to favorable spin, and to deception, "invisiball".  So yeah, **if** he could add a couple mph and be mid-90's, that would seem to support a good enough fastball to be an asset rotation guy. 

On the flip side, I think a lot of college pitchers can throw harder because they are always pitching fully rested, one-week rest.  Pitching on regular pro-rotation, I suspect a lot of guys are pitching a little tired a lot more often. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2021, 09:23:55 am
So we now have a Wicks, a Wick, a Wieck, and when the Cards are the opponent, a Jordan Hicks.  Fun.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 12, 2021, 11:01:03 am
When I read the various scouting reports on Wick, I get the impression that we drafted a Quintano, assuming that his velocity does NOT have an uptick.

Drafting a Quintana on the 21st pick of the draft is not a bad thing.

And if a velocity uptick does actually take place, it could be a heck of a good thing.

Or, he can end up mediocre to bad, like the vast majority of the 21st picks in the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 11:04:43 am
When they first announced the pick I was kinda like another boring college pitcher, to add to the the boring collection of college pitchers that the Cubs have taken over the years.

Then you kinda read into and the things that he does well command, change-up are hard to teach.  What does he need to be a better prospect 1) Velocity- the Cubs have finally figured out how to add velocity 2) Better curve ball, the Cubs are really good at this.  3.) Slider, maybe make it more of a cutter. 

A year from know he could still be a below average fastball with a plus change and middling breaking balls with command.  He'd be a hard throwing version of Davies.  I nice back end of the rotation pitcher, which is perfectly fine for the 21st pick in the draft.  He could be a guy sitting mid 94-96, with a plus change, better curve and cutter with command.  That is a Jon Lester starter kit.  His weakness are what the Cubs in the pitch lab fix well.

The next couple rounds I'm hoping for starters with some projection, contact hitters and power hitters. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 12:22:00 pm
Blue, well stated.  Velocity and curve/breaking stuff is exactly what pitch-lab can help with.  Command and changeup, seemingly much less so.  So, it kinda seems like he's got the stuff pitch lab can't give, and he needs the things that pitch lab can assist with. 

You guys with Q/Lester analogies are kinda depressing me, though.  Yeah, I know you could do worse, but at some point you do need to get some actually flat-out good players, not just anti-awfuls.  And obviously what was good velocity back when Lester was young, everybody is faster now.  *IF* Wicks has velocity little better than Q and Lester in their recent Cubs years, that would be awfully disappointing; sitting 94-96, that would be a very different story than the Lester or Q in my recent memory for sure. 

As always, the level of "good command" is central to everything.  Davies and Hendricks both generally scout under the "very good command" umbrella.  But game to game we see games when they're really sharp, and games when they're not.  Q was supposed to be a command guy, but in practice that was very inconsistent, and his stuff was so sub-average that when his command was inconsistent, he was super vulnerable.  Abbott is supposed to be a command/control guy, but his command doesn't seem to be good enough for the stuff he's got.  We'll see how good Wicks' command really is, and how consistently so.  But hopefully his stuff will be good enough so that he can win games without being super-duper-sharp all the time. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 12, 2021, 12:39:25 pm
Craig - I think that the key with Wick is that his strongest pitch is the change up.  Hendricks has shown that you can pitch extremely effectively with very poor velocity, if you have good command and an excellent change up.  Also, my comparison with Quintana is based on the assumption that the pitching lab can NOT increase his velocity.  If they can, then we could have someone special.

I think as with most high pick pitchers, the greatest danger is with physical problems, not with "stuff problems".
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 12:41:27 pm
56 - James Triantos, HS SS (drafted as a 3B)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 12, 2021, 12:42:18 pm
Cubs choose James Triantos, high school third baseman.

Expect Bryant to be traded tomorrow.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 12:42:52 pm
James Triantos, 6'1" HS shortstop who won't stay at SS. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2021, 12:53:34 pm
Cubs choose James Triantos, high school third baseman.

Expect Bryant to be traded tomorrow.
Sad, but the sooner we trade the boys, the more we will get in return.  Nobody will pay for a short term rental.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 12, 2021, 12:53:59 pm
https://www.insidenova.com/sports/prince_william/james-triantos-does-it-all-in-leading-madison-to-a-2-1-win-over-colgan/article_a60faa84-d5a8-11eb-9526-2352edc336de.html
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 12:55:00 pm
There's your contact hitter, CBJ.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 12:59:34 pm
Triantos reclassified from the 2022 class to 2021.  He a pop-up guy that has bat to ball skills and might have some power potential down the road.


You guys with Q/Lester analogies are kinda depressing me, though. 

Lester was a 5 fWAR pitcher that the Cubs gave $150 million dollars.  Quinatana was a 4 fWAR pitcher that the Cubs traded a ton of capital to get.  Getting that with the 21st pick in the draft would be a really good outcome.  That is a front of the rotation pitcher that you control for maybe 6 years depending on the next CBA.  A lot has to go right to get there, but he's more than just a safe college guy.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 01:13:39 pm
Yes, Blue, if we get the Red Sox/White Sox versions of Lester/Q out of Wicks, it will be a fantastic pick.  And Lester was an asset pitcher during his first two years with the Cubs, too.  But for his last four years with the Cubs, he was a finesse overachiever JAG, so recentism kinda makes that Lester what comes to mind, not the Red Sox guy with the asset stuff.  :):). And yeah, I also get the argument that even the mediocre 2018-2020 versions of Lester and Q were still probably better than what the typical #22 pick provides.  And it's better to get 6 years of average from Hicks than to be paying FA Lester/Q/Hamels type dollars for average pitching. 

But for all of that, I'm going to hold out hope that Wicks has a lot more stuff and is a lot more good than the last Cubs years of Lester or Q.     

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 01:14:23 pm
Quote
Longenhagen

Triantos is on tape facing just shy of 350 pitches throughout the course of the summer/fall 2020 showcase season. He puts 70 of them in play and only swings and misses six times. That’s the most extreme BIP-to-Whiff ratio I’ve encountered while perusing players on Synergy. It’s becoming more common for teams to sign high school players to over-slot deals based largely on measurable feel for contact. Nick Yorke (Boston), Thomas Saggese (Texas), Joe Naranjo (Cleveland), and Tyler Freeman (also Cleveland) are examples that come to mind immediately, and there are many others. Triantos is in this sort of player bucket. He’s a below-average athlete and his swing has a non-traditional look, but he has remarkable feel for contact and enough physicality for pro ball. He’s a North Carolina commit, too, so it’s not as though this kid is coming out of absolutely nowhere. Triantos is a bucket strider whose front side flies open during his swing, and he swings with a lot of effort. It’s not a traditional-looking swing and it appears as though Triantos is making some mechanical concessions to swing as hard as he does, but he also has fantastic vertical plate coverage and shows no signs of swing-and-miss issues despite his traditionally unsound in-the-box footwork.

Like Saggese, Triantos makes routine plays at shortstop but he isn’t a superlative athlete, and he doesn’t have all that much room left on a frame that has added a ton of strength between 2019 PG Junior National and the summer of 2020. He also had a private workout at the Rangers’ stadium. Though he is listed as a switch-hitter in some places, Triantos only hit right-handed last summer. I think he’s strictly better than Saggese and more comparable to Yorke. Yorke got $2.7 million, which I thought was excessive, but Triantos feels likely to come off the board fairly early as this type of player is more sought after now than in the past.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 01:33:36 pm
93 - Drew Gray, HS LHP/OF (drafted as an OF)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 01:42:37 pm
Somebody tweeted that Triantos had 0 strike out as a hitter this year.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 01:45:52 pm
93 - Drew Gray, HS LHP/OF (drafted as an OF)

Thanks, Jeff, I'd wondered if the Cubs viewed him more as pitcher or outfielder.  The brief mlb report below focuses primarily on his pitching potential, where he has a high ceiling but sounds like he's wild and all projection for now.  They had him ranked 179. 

It briefly alluded to his hitting, and said he makes good contact, runs well, and projects possible power.  Very slender young man in the video, just turned 18 in May, so lots of physical projection left. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/2021-draft-drew-gray-lhp?t=mlb-draft
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Playtwo on July 12, 2021, 01:55:55 pm
A future Ohtani!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 02:07:00 pm
123 - Christian Franklin, college OF
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 02:18:46 pm
Ian Smith
@FlaSmitty
2021 LHP/OF Drew Gray flashed a plus FB back in October at WWBA, and even more consistency last night in Vero. Ran it up to 94, sitting 90-93 with almost 2800RPM(!). CB showed tight shape with some ugly swings. Uncomfortable ABs. Big night for 2021 LHPs. #Arkansas commit.


Contact hitter, check.  Pitcher with projection, check.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 02:20:22 pm
Sounds like Gray is just a "traits" guy.  Get him in the system and see how he can best be utilized.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 02:32:42 pm
154 - Liam Spence, college SS
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 02:35:16 pm
123 - Christian Franklin, college OF

Was a possible 1st round pick coming into the year.  Massive power, athletic CF.  The only question is his hit tool.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: guest405 on July 12, 2021, 02:42:58 pm
Liam Spence isnt just a college SS.

He's a first team all SEC shortstop from UT who's calling card is his bat and eye.

I never saw any sign that he was anything special with the glove or had anything more than pretty good speed.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 02:46:39 pm
Triantos sounded great until the part about his front side flying open and his max-effort swing...hope it's not as bad as it sounds...

Also makes me question the level of comp he faced, considering the contact numbers he put up. Sounds like his 91-94 FB was leaving the opposition in awe during the championship game...were they seeing low to mid 80's all season before that, if that?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: guest405 on July 12, 2021, 02:46:51 pm
He's also Australian.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 02:47:09 pm
Spence is a senior, so there may be some money saved with him.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 02:55:41 pm
Gray's windup appears pretty smooth and low-maint, should be pretty easily repeatable...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 02:59:03 pm
A buddy of mine just told me that Spence was all-SEC defensive 1st team at SS...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 03:03:28 pm
Spence is a senior, so there may be some money saved with him.

Spence is 23-year-old senior, so I'd think he's gotta be variably sub-slot. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 03:17:14 pm
He sounds like a great guy to take sub-slot...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 03:30:17 pm
Another 23-year-old senior in 6th round. 

Not sure I see what the Cubs need to sub-slot for?  Unless they're maybe saving up for an overslot prospect ahead?  Wouldn't think that Gray or Triantos are great enough to command big superslot?  Wouldn't there be some other good prospects who wouldn't need superslot? 

Dumb rules question:  *IF* they hypothetically sub-slot in rounds 1-10, are they allowed save some of that in order to superslot in rounds 11-20?  Or is $150K (or whatever) the max for 3rd day picks, regardless of whether they spent their shots on days 1+2? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: guest405 on July 12, 2021, 03:32:48 pm
Im not claiming to be Baseball America.

Im just going off what my eyes saw.

Im a strong UT baseball supporter so Im sure I saw more than most but when you watched the games he always hit leadoff and all they ever mentioned was his hitters eye and how he had a 50 something game on base streak.

I never said he sucked in the field just that his strength was his hitting.

I was personally hoping they'd take UTs 2nd baseman Max Ferguson who went like 6 picks later.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 03:33:06 pm
7th round, another senior, this one will turn 23 in two weeks. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 12, 2021, 03:38:35 pm
Dumb rules question:  *IF* they hypothetically sub-slot in rounds 1-10, are they allowed save some of that in order to superslot in rounds 11-20?  Or is $150K (or whatever) the max for 3rd day picks, regardless of whether they spent their shots on days 1+2? 

The former.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 03:50:03 pm
https://quhawks.com/sports/baseball/stats/2021

23-year-old 6th-round lefty, look at his weird stats. 
152K/78.2 innings, led D2 in K's.  But still allowed 66 hits, 3 of them HR. 
-usually if you're averaging >1.9K/IP, I'd expect the H/IP to be way less than 0.8. 
I think that means the BABIP-allowed was over .430. Crazy. 

Guy is an A-student as a chemistry/biology major.  Maybe he can become a future coach like Breslow?

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 03:59:48 pm
8th round, another guy who'll turn 23 this month.  Four straight picks who are either already 23 or will turn 23 by the end of July.  Maybe they liked Triantos and Gray more than I thought? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 04:08:44 pm
Quincy University...heh, they wanted my son to come there...especially after this day...

https://lincolnlandloggers.com/news/2018/4/11/baseball-sweeps-quincy-university.aspx
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: ticohans on July 12, 2021, 04:11:55 pm
I don't know enough about the draft class as a whole to have a meaningful opinion, but based on the writeups I'm seeing, it seems that the Cubs are stretching for upside wherever possible, even with their signability picks. Chavers, for example, was likely 1st round material before he tore his labrum in 2019. Getting that guy as a 23 year old, post-injury, we'll sign him cheap, but there's a ceiling well beyond the traditional college senior draftee.

Obviously the first rounder isn't a traditional upside pick, but if a guy you have in the top 10 finds you at 21, you have to be pretty happy about that.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: ticohans on July 12, 2021, 04:20:27 pm
Or a guy like Drew Gray. Just started pitching. Supposedly the spin rate on his 4 seam is 2800 rpm... that's like best in majors level, 100th percentile. Extreme risk/reward pick there.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 04:44:05 pm
BA:

Chavers ranked as the No. 167 prospect in the 2020 class and likely would have ranked higher than that if it wasn’t for an arm issue that prevented him from playing at all in the shortened season. Plenty of scouts really liked the five-tool ability Chavers has shown, but they wanted to see more collegiate production and were a bit worried about some of his swing-and-miss tendencies. This spring, Chavers led the Chanticleers in hitting and posted a .318/.407/.477 line with five home runs and lowered his strikeout rate from 18% in 2019 to 13%. Listed at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, Chavers is a plus-plus runner with above-average defense, above-average arm strength and at least solid raw power. He didn’t tap into as much in-game juice this spring as he showed in 2019, but that overall tool set from a lefthanded-hitting center fielder is typically coveted by scouts. What could complicate Chavers’ draft stock is his age. He’ll be 23 just after the draft and how teams decide to weigh that could lower him on some boards. While Chavers does have the tools for an everyday profile, he has struggled throughout his collegiate career against lefthanders, and this spring hit just .246/.313/.328 against them in an admittedly small sample—though he also struggled against southpaws in 2019
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 04:47:09 pm
BA:

A 27th-round pick of the Indians in 2017 coming out of high school, Opitz has played nearly 150 games for Arkansas, although thanks to the coronavirus eligibility rules, he could return for another year in 2022. Opitz does everything scouts want to see behind the plate. He’s an excellent catch-and-throw catcher with arguably the best arm in the draft class. Opitz regularly records plus-plus pop times. He has thrown out 43% of basestealers for his career, and his presence has largely led some teams to shut down their basestealing when he’s at work. He works well with pitchers and shows excellent ability to block balls in the dirt. So why has a catcher with above-average defense and a plus-plus arm struggled to gain traction with scouts? It’s the bat. Opitz projects as a well below-average hitter with bottom-of-the-scale power. He has hit five home runs in over 500 career plate appearances. His 2021 season (.259/.370/.351) tracks right in line with his .253/.365/.344 career line at Arkansas. Opitz understands the strike zone and draws walks, but he struggles to catch up to velocity. A team picking Opitz knows it will be getting a backstop who can improve a pitching staff, but to even be an MLB backup he’ll need to significantly improve as a hitter.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 04:48:32 pm
BA:

Watkins is no stranger to playing in various environments, having started his career at Cal Poly in 2019 before transferring to College of Central Florida in 2020, where he went 4-1, 1.91 with 44 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. He found a home in Oregon State’s bullpen this season, where he was used as a situational lefthander. Watkins has a long frame at 6-foot-4, 217 pounds, with a fastball that sits 90-92 mph. He commands the pitch well, and has shown the ability to spin his hammer curveball. He also throws a cut-action slider and changeup, with good deception thanks to his arm speed. Some evaluators believe he has the stuff to start, although he has just 14 collegiate starts to his name.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 04:50:06 pm
BA:

Riley Martin

The 6-foot-1, 215-pound lefthander is a fifth-year senior at Quincy who racked up 152 strikeouts in his 78.2 innings this season, making him an attractive choice for evaluators with a likely low price tag. The southpaw has been 88 to 92 with a fastball that has some ride, coupled with a plus curveball, leading to his success.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 04:54:09 pm
Cubs wrap up the draft with another 23-year-old in round 10.  So five of their last 6 picks were either 23 or will turn so by end of the month. 

The 9th rounder is only 21, a lefty reliever. 

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 04:55:48 pm
BA:

Christian Franklin

As of early June, Franklin was hitting below .300 (.294), but like the rest of his teammates he dominated opponents by drawing walks and hitting for power. Franklin’s power/speed combo is even more alluring now that he’s answered some of the questions that once surrounded his ability in center field. The 5-foot-11, 195-pound center fielder is an average runner who takes a while to get to top speed (and his big swing means he generally turns in 4.35-second times to first), but he is excellent at leaving his feet and is fearless going back on balls to the wall. He’s an above-average defender who also has an above-average, accurate arm. At the plate, Franklin uses the entire field well, with above-average power and the ability to turn on fastballs on the inner half. He has a modest timing step, getting his foot down consistently on time. When he gets a ball to pull, he does an excellent job of using his lower half, generating excellent exit velocities. Franklin recognizes and feasts on changeups in the zone as well. He proved vulnerable to chasing sliders down and away in the zone, but if pitchers get greedy, he will lay off of them if they go far out of the zone. Franklin can be beaten in the zone, but he rarely expands to chase pitches out of it, especially when he gets into two-strike counts. Franklin’s well-rounded skill set and three years of production for Arkansas make him a pretty safe pick, and he has enough power and plate discipline to make a solid MLB impact as well.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2021, 05:19:17 pm
Triantos sounded great until the part about his front side flying open and his max-effort swing...hope it's not as bad as it sounds...

Also makes me question the level of comp he faced, considering the contact numbers he put up. Sounds like his 91-94 FB was leaving the opposition in awe during the championship game...were they seeing low to mid 80's all season before that, if that?

The Fangraphs article that was poster earlier he had 350 pitches on tape on the showcase circuit.  70 BIP and 6 swings and misses. So he’s done it against velocity. I’m not a hitting guru, but there wasn’t a huge flaw in his swing that I saw.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 05:44:50 pm
Thanks…I totally glossed over the part that mentioned those numbers being against the showcase circuit…that makes me a bit more optimistic…
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2021, 06:58:16 pm
there wasn’t a huge flaw in his swing that I saw.
  Cub coaching will fix that!
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 12, 2021, 07:06:42 pm
Having said that…a hitter’s front side flying open and a max effort swing doesn’t worry me as much vs. velocity as it does against good offspeed stuff…especially well placed on the outer half.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 07:06:46 pm
Thanks…I totally glossed over the part that mentioned those numbers being against the showcase circuit…that makes me a bit more optimistic…

Triantos's team won the state championship, as a school with thousands of students, and Fairfax isn't a small rural town playing small-town teams.  So I'd assume Triantos was not only facing showcase guys during the summer but was also facing and beating big-HS pitching through the season and en-route to the state title?  If not the biggest-school division, at least the second-biggest-school level? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 12, 2021, 07:22:25 pm
He started for a WCAC school, St. John's as a freshman.  The WCAC is the premiere baseball league in the DC area. Although, much weaker than many of the leagues in Florida ...

... but yes most of the HS pitchers in northern Virginia sit in the low to mid 80s.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 12, 2021, 08:02:08 pm
6A, the biggest-school division. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 10:36:39 pm
Jordan Bastian’s piece has brief comments from Kantrovitz about each of the day 2 guys.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2021-draft-day-2-coverage
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2021, 10:43:22 pm
This is a link to the guy who, for several years, has done a nice spreadsheet keeping track of Cubs draft picks/bonus pool and twitter-type stuff from and about the picks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 12, 2021, 10:46:41 pm
We should get a scouting report on Liam Spence from Boris.  Surly, they know each other.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Ron on July 12, 2021, 11:13:16 pm
I really appreciate the posting of the commentary and analysis of the Cub draftees. Thanks, guys.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Deeg on July 13, 2021, 12:05:58 am
An interesting mix of players.  An ultra-safe 1st round pick, a couple of LIAB toolsy guys (which is Kantrovitz's specialty by reputation), several who look like pure signability picks.  Not a tremendously exciting bunch of guys on paper if we're honest, but that doesn't prove anything one way or the other.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 13, 2021, 07:25:00 am
Did the Cubs take a bunch of senior guys in the 5-10 rounds to pay for 1-4 guys or are they going to take some fun guys today.

I really like the 1-4 round guys they took. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 08:00:30 am
Jordan Bastian’s piece has brief comments from Kantrovitz about each of the day 2 guys.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2021-draft-day-2-coverage
Thanks for this link, Reb.  Kantrovitz is hyperbolically gushy and make Omar Fleita seem kinda muted, so it's kinda hard for me to filter.  But these are smart, intelligent, logical guys, for every team, trying to make the best choices they can.  Understanding what they think they see in a player is helpful to me. 


Quote
"[Our scouts] just came back raving about James' bat, his bat speed, his ability to control the zone, his plate coverage. It seemed like every time he made contact, it was loud, hard contact. He's driving the ball out to right-center. He's showing pull power. They just couldn't stop raving about James offensively." -- Kantrovitz


Quote
"He's got just natural arm-side run and plus movement on his fastball, and his curveball is a hammer. I mean, it's one that's got late bite. The way that it enters the zone, it's a really tough pitch to pick up, and from kind of that same arm slot and arm path from his fastball. It's a pretty lethal combo." -- Kantrovitz


Quote
"There's not too many guys in the Draft where you can just sort of put your stamp on it and say, 'He's a true center fielder.' And we think Christian's that. And then you complement that with a power bat, and it's just like, 'Wow, that's not the type of talent that we see available in that part of the Draft normally.' Needless to say, we were pretty thrilled when he was there." -- Kantrovitz

Quote
“Our scouts had him evaluated as one of the better defensive shortstops in the country this year. And then his numbers in probably the premier baseball conference in the country, I think, speaks for itself. He’s got the ability to manage the zone. He definitely can square the ball up more often than most of his peers. And it’s not just sort of a contact approach. He can drive to the gaps, too.” -- Kantrovitz
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 11:19:35 am
334 - Gage Ziehl, HS RHP
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 11:36:19 am
364 - Teo Banks, RHH HS OF
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 11:54:13 am
394 - Erian Rodriguez, HS RHP
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 12:10:04 pm
424 - Frankie Scalzo, college RHP (senior)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 12:24:45 pm
454 - BJ Murray, switch hitting college 3B (junior)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 12:39:38 pm
484 - Zachary Leigh, college RHP (senior)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 12:48:22 pm
I assume the Cubs really don't draft anybody for whom they haven't called and talked and know they'll sign.  So I assume the three HS picks are guys who will sign, whether for the $125K slot, or with some additional discretionary cash based on all the senior signs yesterday.  But fun to NOT have ALL of today's picks be college shots. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 12:55:11 pm
514 - Christian Olivo, RHH HS SS
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 01:05:41 pm
544 - Dominic Hambley, HS RHP
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 01:21:40 pm
574 - Daniel Avitia, HS RHP
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 13, 2021, 01:33:33 pm
I assume the Cubs really don't draft anybody for whom they haven't called and talked and know they'll sign.  So I assume the three HS picks are guys who will sign, whether for the $125K slot, or with some additional discretionary cash based on all the senior signs yesterday.  But fun to NOT have ALL of today's picks be college shots.
Hopefully you're correct; however, the Cubs don't need to fill out a short-season A roster this year so their late round calculus may have changed ... I'm hoping their 11-13 selections were guys whose agent called last night expressing interest ...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 01:35:47 pm
604 - Wilson Cunningham, HS LHP
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 01:37:05 pm
End of Cubs selections.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 13, 2021, 01:43:00 pm
College RHP - 2
College LHP - 3
College OF - 3
College IF - 2
College C - 1
HS RHP - 4
HS LHP - 2
HS OF - 1
HS IF - 2
HS C - 0
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2021, 01:49:24 pm
334 - Gage Ziehl, HS RHP

BA:

Gage Ziehl

Ziehl has a compact, physically-mature build for his age at 6 feet, 213 pounds, and pitches with a fastball that parks in the low 90s and can hit 95 mph, although his body doesn't suggest much more physical projection that would add velocity. He has innate feel to spin the baseball, which shows up on his fastball that rides up in the zone, and especially on his slider—his best pitch. His slider is inconsistent but flashes above-average, with tight rotation in the low 80s, giving him a potential out pitch at the next level. Ziehl has a curveball and a changeup, though he's mainly a fastball/slider pitcher right now.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2021, 01:51:13 pm
364 - Teo Banks, RHH HS OF

BA:

Teo Banks

Close your eyes and imagine what a tooled-up outfielder looks like and chances are you’ll envision someone with Banks’ build. He has broad shoulders, a tapered waist and clearly knows his way around a weight room. Banks was an excellent linebacker for Permian High in Odessa, Texas earlier in his high school career and has a long track record of hitting in high school. He led Permian to the district 2-6A championship in 2021 and was the district MVP. The Tulane signee has a chance to develop into a well-rounded outfielder with plus power potential, above-average speed and a strong arm (he’s been clocked at 91-92 mph off the mound). He’s relatively young for the class as he turns 18 the day before the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 04:12:36 pm
7 of today's 10 picks were HS guys, 5 of them pitchers. 
1.  #13 Erian Rodriguez will turn 20 this year. 
2.  The other 6 HS guys are relatively young, either not even 18 yet, or else having only turned 18 within the last several months.  (Gray is also young, just turned 18 in May.  Triantos not so much, he turned 18 in January already.). So probably a lot of projection possibilities for several of them.
3.  I wonder if there is maybe something of a "sweet spot" for drafting young B-grade HS pitchers on Day 3?  An "A" prospect with full-ride D1 offers from top schools, hard to sign them for 3rd-day cash, even if you bump past $125K.  But a "B" guy won't have UCLA and Texas chasing him, and probably won't be a freshman Friday night starter even at a smaller program.  Might $125K (or maybe $250K), combined with pitch-lab development, seem like an acceptable career choice? 
4.  Four of today's HS pitchers were 16 when Covid hit, and largely lost their junior springs.  Did they have opportunity to earn showcase invites, or offers from Pac10 and SEC powers? 

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 04:20:25 pm
Quote from: craig on Today at 12:48:22 pm.  I assume the Cubs really don't draft anybody for whom they haven't called and talked and know they'll sign....

Hopefully you're correct; however, the Cubs don't need to fill out a short-season A roster this year so their late round calculus may have changed ... I'm hoping their 11-13 selections were guys whose agent called last night expressing interest ...

You're right that the calculus may be different, in 3 ways:  no Eugene, no draft rounds 21-40, and yes Kantrovitz. 

I'm pretty confident that HSers 11-13 were known to be signable. 

But yeah, for HSers 17-20, I'd not assume that.  I assume the Cubs have talked to them enough to have a feeling, but it's not like having an 18th or 19th rounder go unsigned is some intolerable disaster for the Cubs. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 13, 2021, 05:11:57 pm
Teams are also limited to 180 minor leaguers.  I think that is AZL AND above and the active rosters. I wouldn’t expect many of the pitchers to actually pitch this year.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 05:21:16 pm
I've sometimes wondered in years past if a HS guy taken on day 3 was maybe understood to be signable because he wasn't a good student and didn't really want to take college classes.  That doesn't seem to be the profile for the Cubs HS picks today.  For at least 10, 11, and 18, I've seen references to "good student", "strong student", "3.9", stuff like that.  So at least for those three they aren't considering pro ball because they don't qualify for college.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Bennett on July 13, 2021, 06:53:28 pm
Angels 1st to select exclusively pitchers in amateur draft

Quote
The Angels became the first club ever to select exclusively pitchers over a full amateur draft this week when they took 20 straight hurlers. The arms race began with Miami (Ohio) right-hander Sam Bachman at No. 9 overall Sunday and ended with TCU righty Marcelo Perez in the 20th round on Tuesday.

http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=31813476
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 13, 2021, 07:47:54 pm
Dodgers came close... they maybe took all pitchers for the first 15 rounds or so? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: chgojhawk on July 14, 2021, 09:16:35 am
Teo Banks will not be signing. Going to Tulane. This will be an interesting draft to follow in terms of who signs.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 14, 2021, 09:53:28 am
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/casey-opitz-drafted-by-cubs-to-help-out-pitchers
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 10:32:37 am
I assume the Cubs really don't draft anybody for whom they haven't called and talked and know they'll sign.  So I assume the three HS picks are guys who will sign, whether for the $125K slot, or with some additional discretionary cash based on all the senior signs yesterday.  But fun to NOT have ALL of today's picks be college shots. 

Didn't take wrong to prove me totally wrong, with 12th-round Banks giving a decisive answer within half a day. 

Seems really weird to me.  Katro and his 25 scouts have spent the last 12 months prepping for these 20 rounds, and you'd had 20 hours with Kantro and 25 other scouts after Monday to be calling people to double-confirm what your info was.  Yet you didn't bother to call the guy you're picking in round 12? 

Variable random possible hypothetical thoughts (I'm not sure I believe any of them, but I'm wondering...):
1.  Kantro and his guys aren't very thorough and didn't have a very good process?  Maybe McLeod was a mediocre talent-evaluator, but his process had some advantages? 
2.  Kantro and his guys really aren't very focused beyond the first three picks?  Maybe they figure it's largely random luck after that, but that the top picks are really where it's all at.  So maybe they just totally focused, focused, focused all of the 25 scouts on guy who'd might be worth top-round picks? 
3.  Rounds 5-10 had 5 senior signs, almost all ~23 years old.  I'd thought perhaps that might hypothetically save some cash for some 3rd-day overslot signings.  But perhaps that isn't true at all,  and they were picking Banks strictly as a slot guy, not a guy they might offer 4th-round money for? 
4.  **IF** they hypothetically weren't saving senior-sign discretionary cash for 3rd-day guys, that might suggest that they REALLY liked Triantos and Gray, and were willing to do whatever it takes to superslot sign them?  (Just looking at the mlb.com draft list, Triantos and Gray were both over-drafts:  Triantos pick 56 was ranged 78, and Gray pick 93 was ranked 179.  Obviously mlb.com aren't the actual 30 scouting directors; but it may not be obvious that Gray was so superior at 93 to anybody else available that you'd necessarily need to commit a big super-slot on him.). So, the Cubs might have dopey scouting, but there's a chance they really wanted Triantos and Gray a lot, enough to pay them a lot, and to take any measures needed to enable that? 
5.  **IF** the Cubs didn't call Teo Banks before picking him, I wonder if they hypothetically did so AFTER picking him.  If by evening he already had his decision made, perhaps within an hour or two of selecting him the Cubs hypothetically already knew they were NOT getting him?  Hypothetically, maybe NOT all of the senior-sign savings are going to Triantos and Gray, and they DID have some for 3rd-day picks.  Maybe they thought they could talk Banks into signing; but by the time round 17 was beginning, they now already recognized that Banks was NOT going to absorb their discretionary 3rd-day overslot-money.  So maybe with overslot money they'd hoped to use on Banks, maybe that's what prompted them to use picks 17-20 on four other HS guys?  Maybe $400K discretionary they'd hoped to use to sign Banks to 4th-round deal, they could not perhaps split up over picks 17-20 and pay them all at 6th-round kind of deals? 

OK, I'm thinking too much....  Will be interesting to see how the signing bonuses play out.  How far overslot will Triantos and Gray get?  How many of the 3rd-day HS picks will sign, and of those who do will we ever know whether they got overslot at all? 

I'm totally not a Franklin guy, but I wonder if even he might hypothetically get some overslot, too?  I have no interest in him, peronally; a guy who was already K'ing >1/3 of his AB's in college, what chance will he have against full-season pitchers?   Much less big-league guys?  No chance. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 14, 2021, 10:56:52 am
Craig, Dave23 could probably weigh in more heavily on this, but I wonder if there is some value in drafting a guy that you might be interested in re-drafting at some future time.  Kind of like the old "draft-and-follow" but without the actual ability to sign without a re-draft.  Relationship building.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 14, 2021, 12:35:54 pm
The Cubs have little to lose with Banks.  As long as they come in with a decent offer, they will part friends as he goes off to college, and may have started a relationship with him that could help if they choose to draft and sign him in the future.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 14, 2021, 01:02:09 pm
Is Banks' decision final?  He can't change his mind?  How long does he have before his pick is forfeit?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 01:11:16 pm
I think this is perhaps a question of whether one perceives 3rd day picks as having any value in adding potential major-league players.  If the perception is that they are throw-away picks and you can't get anybody with major-league potential there anyway, then you have nothing to lose.  But *IF* you think you can get guys who are improbable but are meaningfully possible, then throwing away a pick on a guy you don't sign is losing a shot at a possible major leaguer. 

It's different than when there were 50 rounds, or before the spending cap. 

It may also depend on how the Cubs view the draft budget-wise.  If they want to bring in all the talent they can get, and are willing to pay all ten 3rd-day picks the full $125K, (plus perhaps senior-sign money from Day 2), then it's a lost signing.  But, maybe they're pinching spending and aren't willing to budget that much anyway?  So, if they're only willing to sign a handful of $.125 Day 3 guys, maybe if #12 won't take one of those limited offers, they can just offer it to one of the HS guys taken in rounds 18-20 instead? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 14, 2021, 01:29:29 pm
You can't compare this to drafts in the past.  All major league teams are limited to only having 180 players, so it is very unlikely that the Cubs had spots to add 20 players.  The probably took multiple guys without any intention of singing them.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 14, 2021, 01:45:42 pm
to what tune would they be singing them?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 01:48:25 pm
You can't compare this to drafts in the past.  All major league teams are limited to only having 180 players, so it is very unlikely that the Cubs had spots to add 20 players.  The probably took multiple guys without any intention of singing them.

I'm not sure I understand the details, but I don't see why 180 would make it hard to add 20 players?  Notes:
1.  The 180 is on domestic rosters.  It does NOT include the DSL guys. 
2.  So, to me it seems like if you have 4 full-season teams, each with ≤30 guys, that's ≤120 full-season guys.  That allows ≥60 Mesa guys.  Not sure I see a huge problem with adding 20 guys into the system? 
3.  I don't know the details. 
-For example, googling it, I saw vague reference to 180 guys on minor league rosters.  Would injured guys count against this?  Obviously the majority of Cub top-40-prospect pitchers are injured, so *if* injurred guys count against the 180, that pinches the discretionary space.
-likewise I don't know if you can have guys signed to contracts and throwing at Mesa and in pitch-lab, without counting against the 180.  So, for example, can we sign picks 18-20, but if they're just throwing on Mesa backfields without playing in any games, do they count?  I don't imagine that any of the drafted pitchers will actually pitch in box-score games this summer. 
4.  There are a lot of Latin kids in Mesa.  *IF* the 180-space is getting stressed, I assume some of the Latin kids could potentially get sent back to the Dominican complex. 

So my hypothesis is that teams probably do have space to accommodate an extra 20 draft picks, *IF* they think Day 3 guys have any chance. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 03:20:11 pm
Teo Banks will not be signing. Going to Tulane. This will be an interesting draft to follow in terms of who signs.

11th rounder Gage Ziehl also says he will not be signing.  Going to Miami. 

Maybe being unsignable explains why the 11th/12th rounders sounded almost too good to be true as signable 3rd day picks! 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 14, 2021, 03:22:19 pm
Great...maybe we can give their money to some more independent leaguers...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 14, 2021, 03:39:49 pm
Or, to Cubs 18th rounder.

BA:

Dominic Hambley

Hambley is a high schooler with arm strength, velocity into the mid 90s with his fastball, a good curveball, and some strike zone issues. The 6-foot-2, 230-pound righthander throws his curveball with some power, and the 18-year-old also has a slider, and very occasionally will show a changeup, but he’s a two true outcomes pitcher, racking up both walks and strikeouts. The raw stuff is there, and will need continued development.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 14, 2021, 03:41:53 pm
Or, to Cubs 20th rounder.

BA:

Wilson Cunningham

Cunningham is as much of a long-term project as they come. A 6-foot-7 lefthander, Cunningham didn’t play baseball his first two years of high school and barely pitched the last two years with top draft prospects Gage Jump and Eric Silva getting most of the starts for JSerra (Calif.) High. Most of his mound time came during practices and intrasquad scrimmages, where his long arms and legs made for uncomfortable at-bats for JSerra’s top hitters. Cunningham is a long, loose, lanky teenager who requires a lot of physical projection. His fastball sits 83-85 mph and tops out at 87-88. His curveball and changeup are very inconsistent and his command is spotty because he lacks experience. Cunningham is an extremely smart, very mature individual who was nearly his class valedictorian and is committed to the University of Chicago. His stuff and command are nowhere near ready for pro ball, but a patient organization could bank on his size and makeup eventually paying dividends.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 14, 2021, 03:52:19 pm
Kantrovitz seems to be saying that expects to sign some of the HS guys from day 3. From the Trib:

“We were able to take some more risks, and at this point, I’m not so sure about whether we’re going to sign everybody that we selected (Tuesday),” Kantrovitz said. “But just based on how the draft rules work, there’s probably some players that we were able to take a risk on and kind of shoot for the stars and hope, and then some others where we have a little bit more cost certainty that they’re going to sign.”

Seven of the 10 players the Cubs drafted on Day 3 were high school prospects: five pitchers, an infielder and an outfielder.

“I still don’t believe that we’re going to be in position to sign all the picks that we took (Tuesday) but certainly a few of them, and that’s sort of a rare position to be in on Day 3 to be able to buy a player out of (going to) college and send them immediately to professional baseball,” Kantrovitz said. “That was probably a product of our strategy on Day 2.

“If you are strategic about how you’re managing your pool, and if you have some flexibility going into Day 3, it enables you to be a little bit more aggressive. We saw the fruits of that play out (Tuesday).”
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 14, 2021, 04:01:04 pm
That seems to suggest that they had a bucket of available money and a sort-of priority list of which Day 3 guys they wanted to spend it on.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 05:06:55 pm
Thanks reb, that's really interesting.  As Jeff says, that sounds like they senior-sign-saved some cash for Day 3.  Still curious that they didn't kinda figure what they had, and talk to 3rd-day picks 1 and 2 before swinging and missing on them.  (It may also be that the Day 3 guys assume they're $125K slot guys; and maybe if the Cubs show up with $375 instead, Ziehl will change his mind....).
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 14, 2021, 05:11:20 pm
... Cunningham is a long, loose, lanky teenager who requires a lot of physical projection. His fastball sits 83-85 mph and tops out at 87-88. His curveball and changeup are very inconsistent and his command is spotty because he lacks experience. Cunningham is an extremely smart, very mature individual who was nearly his class valedictorian and is committed to the University of Chicago. ...

If Cunningham is big-school valedictorian-almost going to U Chicago, I'm not sure hanging out for a few years in the minors as a wildman with 83-85 velocity is a great usage of his giftings!  He might be better served to go to school, have fun with peers there, hang out with my 6'5" nephew at U Chicago, study hard, and move on with a successful professional career. 

But yeah, if a guy loves baseball and wants to try it while the opportunity knocks, plus if the Cubs promise to cover college costs later, then signing could make sense.  Could certainly be a fun project for the pitch-lab boys.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 14, 2021, 05:26:58 pm
Going to give BA credit for finding out that Cunningham was “nearly” the class valedictorian. Easy to find out the actual valedictorian but the contenders? That is excellent scouting and sourcing.

Yeah, I too would advise the young man to attend U of Chicago, pitch against Beloit College, and take his friends to Wrigley here and there for fun.

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 14, 2021, 06:00:02 pm
Taking some of these unsignable players may have been an attempt to begin gaining their allegiances as well as keep them from being drafted by someone else.  Fun to speculate.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 14, 2021, 08:22:00 pm
Longenhagen summary on Cubs draft at Fangraphs:

In addition to adding Kansas State lefty Jordan Wicks in the first round, the Cubs scooped up Virginia high school hit tool prodigy James Triantos in the second round. He seemed to have homes as high as the comp round, so he was good value in the last third of round two. The Cubs third rounder, lanky, two-way lefty Drew Gray from IMG Academy in Florida, was announced as a pitcher. He’s an athletic, projectable lefty who gets way down the mound and is very balanced over his lead leg as he delivers home with big extension and flat angle. He also has feel for a loopy breaking ball that lefty hitters struggle with because of Gray’s length. With the Cubs newfound ability to develop velocity, this is a very exciting pickup. Gray sat 87-91 and touched 94 last summer.

Chicago then mixed in several high-profile college bats with those two high schoolers. Arkansas center fielder Christian Franklin (fourth round) has vanilla tools but performed for three years in the SEC. Tennessee shortstop Liam Spence (fifth) went from the college postseason to Cape Cod, where he played for Harwich for about a week leading up to the draft. He is of Aussie descent, spent two years at an Arizona JUCO, and walked more than he struck out as a 23-year-old senior with Tennessee. He might have more upside than most seniors because of his background.

Seventh rounder Parker Chavers was a high-profile 2020 draft prospect who had labrum surgery in December of 2019 and had no time to recover and play last season before the shutdown. He went undrafted in 2020 then had diminished pop in ’21. Arkansas catcher Casey Opitz (eighth) is a field general with a good shot to eventually end up on a 40-man since he’s a workmanlike, switch-hitting catcher who can play the position well.

Senior sign Riley Martin (sixth) is a lefty with a big curveball who struck out nearly two batters per inning at Division-II Quincy University. Ninth rounder Chase Watkins transferred from Cal Poly to Oregon State where he only sat about 88-92, but his curveball spins at about 2900 rpm, and he has good feel for slider location (he throws it more than the curve). Duke senior Peter Matt (10th) is a physical righty outfielder with some thump.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: guest405 on July 14, 2021, 08:26:14 pm
So all they mentioned about Spence was his plate discipline?

Surely not.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2021, 06:51:30 am
I'm not sure I understand the details, but I don't see why 180 would make it hard to add 20 players?  Notes:
1.  The 180 is on domestic rosters.  It does NOT include the DSL guys. 
2.  So, to me it seems like if you have 4 full-season teams, each with ≤30 guys, that's ≤120 full-season guys.  That allows ≥60 Mesa guys.  Not sure I see a huge problem with adding 20 guys into the system? 
3.  I don't know the details. 
-For example, googling it, I saw vague reference to 180 guys on minor league rosters.  Would injured guys count against this?  Obviously the majority of Cub top-40-prospect pitchers are injured, so *if* injurred guys count against the 180, that pinches the discretionary space.
-likewise I don't know if you can have guys signed to contracts and throwing at Mesa and in pitch-lab, without counting against the 180.  So, for example, can we sign picks 18-20, but if they're just throwing on Mesa backfields without playing in any games, do they count?  I don't imagine that any of the drafted pitchers will actually pitch in box-score games this summer. 
4.  There are a lot of Latin kids in Mesa.  *IF* the 180-space is getting stressed, I assume some of the Latin kids could potentially get sent back to the Dominican complex. 

So my hypothesis is that teams probably do have space to accommodate an extra 20 draft picks, *IF* they think Day 3 guys have any chance. 

I'm pretty sure injured players count or teams could just phantom IL-7 pitchers to get around the limit.  When there where a ton of injuries early on there was a legit concern team wouldn't have enough space.  It isn't just 180 players it is getting playing time for guys as well.  There are limited 5 starting spots at each position and only 45 innings a day in the minors if everybody is playing.  Is Christian Hernandez in the DSL because that is where he should be playing or only because the Cubs only have 1 AZL team?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2021, 08:33:52 am
13th rounder is reportedly signing for slot value.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 15, 2021, 08:34:47 am
Thanks, blue.  Yeah, if injured guys are included, I can see how the 180 could become a relevant constraint.  I could easily imagine like maybe 30 spots being absorbed by injury guys. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 15, 2021, 08:43:33 am
Good question.  My assumption is that Christian is in the DSL because he is the age of a current HS senior.  He will turn 18 this December. In addition, the ACL is likely a bit tougher than normal due to the lack of a SS-A league.

With respect to injured players, it could be that IL-7 players count against the 180 but players on the IL for longer stints do not. AZ Phil would know! In fact, that information is likely buried in one of his many posts. 

On another note, what's with the "rash" of TJ surgeries for Cub position players this year ...  P.J. Higgins, Cole Roederer, ... others?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 15, 2021, 08:57:25 am
https://www.thecubreporter.com/minor-league-contracts-roster-rules
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 15, 2021, 09:28:29 am
Thanks, Jeff.  I'm not sure I understand the nuances after a quick skim, but the following seem pertinent. 

Quote
3. A player on a minor league "rehabilitation" or "conditioning" assignment does not count against the Active List or Reserve List of the affiliate to which he is assigned.

4. A maximum of three players on a minor league Injured List, Restricted List, and/or Miltary List may be assigned on a "rehabilitation" or "conditioning" assignment to any one minor league affiliate at any one time, but there is no limit to the number of players who can be on a "rehabilitation" or "conditioning" assignment at the organization's Spring Training Complex (including a club's Arizona or Florida complex league affiliate). There is also no limit on the number of players on an MLB Injured List, Restricted List, and/or Military List who can be assigned on a "rehabilitation" or "conditioning" assignment to any one minor league affiliate at any one time.

5. A player who has been "Signed for Future Service" can be carried on the roster of a single-A or DSL affiliate only  A player with "Signed for Future Service" status does not count against Domestic Reserve List or International Reserve List roster limits until minor league Opening Day. A maximum of 50 players in any one organization may have "Signed for Future Service" status at any one point in time, and no more than 12 players "Signed for Future Service" may be assigned to any one single-A or DSL affiliate at the same time. 


I'd think many/most injured guys would or could be placed under the "rehab" or "conditioning" umbrella?  Without knowing the details, I'd also imagine that perhaps draftees signed in August would or could be positioned to fall under the "signed for future service" umbrella?  Or else under the "conditioning" umbrella? 

So, I'm kinda thinking that the 180 cap doesn't seem all that onerous or problematic?  That it probably isn't the driving reason why Hernandez is in DSL?  And that it probably doesn't preclude signing 20 draft picks, *IF* you had the capacity to draft and sign 20 guys that you thought had enough long-term potential to crack your top-180? 

So, I'm hypothetically thinking that the 180 list does NOT impact what the Cubs do with their 3rd day draft picks.  Talent and budget and other factors do. 

My hypothesis that the 180-cap could have space for 20 draft picks also seems consistent with the Cubs going out and signing undrafted guys.  *IF* the space is so tight, why would they gobble up spots signing UDFA?  Would I block out spots that could have gone to HS draft picks who might develop in order to sign 23-year-old roster fillers?  (For example, Duke reliever had a >7 ERA; GCU catcher between summer leagues and college has a career batting average <.200.).
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2021, 11:37:26 am
I'd think many/most injured guys would or could be placed under the "rehab" or "conditioning" umbrella?  Without knowing the details, I'd also imagine that perhaps draftees signed in August would or could be positioned to fall under the "signed for future service" umbrella?  Or else under the "conditioning" umbrella? 

So, I'm kinda thinking that the 180 cap doesn't seem all that onerous or problematic?  That it probably isn't the driving reason why Hernandez is in DSL?  And that it probably doesn't preclude signing 20 draft picks, *IF* you had the capacity to draft and sign 20 guys that you thought had enough long-term potential to crack your top-180? 

So, I'm hypothetically thinking that the 180 list does NOT impact what the Cubs do with their 3rd day draft picks.  Talent and budget and other factors do. 

My hypothesis that the 180-cap could have space for 20 draft picks also seems consistent with the Cubs going out and signing undrafted guys.  *IF* the space is so tight, why would they gobble up spots signing UDFA?  Would I block out spots that could have gone to HS draft picks who might develop in order to sign 23-year-old roster fillers?  (For example, Duke reliever had a >7 ERA; GCU catcher between summer leagues and college has a career batting average <.200.).

The Cubs active minor league roster stands at 163, plus 41 players on the IL or restricted list.  So the IL guys must not count. 

The Cubs can only have 50 futures contracts guys signed at 1 time and only 12 with each Single-A affiliate or DSL team.  Futures contract player can't be released until 15 days into spring training.

I think the lack of 2 AZL teams and the roster limits is going to force smaller draft classes.  You can't just sign a bunch of guys and have no where to play them. 

Hernandez is the first big signing to not start in Arizona since Theo took over.  I think it a combo to the roster limit and no playing time. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 15, 2021, 12:34:06 pm
You may be right, beats me.  The Cubs have seemed to be dumb enough often enough that it's hard to trust their decision-making.  But I'd like to think they have enough brainpower and logic to evaluate the pros and cons of having one versus two Mesa teams. 

Personally, I'm not sure that playing intrasquad games at Mesa with the coaches right there couldn't be just as developmentally advantageous as playing inter-squad games with the Padres and Giants?  If the Cubs have 112 guys on the full-season rosters, and 68 guys in Mesa, wouldn't 68 guys enable specific practicing, but also a limitless amount of intrasquad games?  Would Cassie learn to play RF all that much better playing an inter-squad game against the Giants than an intra-squad game against some Cubs guys?  Perhaps teaching-wise almost better, because in a Giants-game, they may not want to pause to explain why the footwork and setup wasn't perfect for catching the fly and making a throw to the plate.  But maybe in an intrasquad you can take specific plays and highlight what was perfect or imperfect?  And if Cassie is hitting fastballs and curves and sliders from Cubs prospects versus Padres prospects, might not his hitting development progress equally well regardless? 

Or maybe a little better, if three hours per day of bus-time is instead spent on doing baseball-development stuff in Mesa? 

Beats me.  I guess I'm just saying a reduction in box-score ASL innings or AB's might not necessarily mean there's an actual insufficiency of playing-time and developmental opportunity.  And that *IF* such is the case, I'd at least HOPE that the Cubs decision-makers wouldn't be too dumb or too stubborn to field a 2nd ASL team next summer. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: jacey1 on July 15, 2021, 12:35:43 pm
So all they mentioned about Spence was his plate discipline?

Surely not.
They should have contacted you for information about the size of his Louisville Slugger
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 15, 2021, 01:06:17 pm
You may be right, beats me.  The Cubs have seemed to be dumb enough often enough that it's hard to trust their decision-making.  But I'd like to think they have enough brainpower and logic to evaluate the pros and cons of having one versus two Mesa teams. 

Personally, I'm not sure that playing intrasquad games at Mesa with the coaches right there couldn't be just as developmentally advantageous as playing inter-squad games with the Padres and Giants?  If the Cubs have 112 guys on the full-season rosters, and 68 guys in Mesa, wouldn't 68 guys enable specific practicing, but also a limitless amount of intrasquad games?  Would Cassie learn to play RF all that much better playing an inter-squad game against the Giants than an intra-squad game against some Cubs guys?  Perhaps teaching-wise almost better, because in a Giants-game, they may not want to pause to explain why the footwork and setup wasn't perfect for catching the fly and making a throw to the plate.  But maybe in an intrasquad you can take specific plays and highlight what was perfect or imperfect?  And if Cassie is hitting fastballs and curves and sliders from Cubs prospects versus Padres prospects, might not his hitting development progress equally well regardless? 

Or maybe a little better, if three hours per day of bus-time is instead spent on doing baseball-development stuff in Mesa? 

Beats me.  I guess I'm just saying a reduction in box-score ASL innings or AB's might not necessarily mean there's an actual insufficiency of playing-time and developmental opportunity.  And that *IF* such is the case, I'd at least HOPE that the Cubs decision-makers wouldn't be too dumb or too stubborn to field a 2nd ASL team next summer. 

Longenhagen talked about the alt-site intrasquad scrimmages being not great for developement.  The level of compete was done and seeing the pitchers over and over not being helpful. 

MLB, I believe, was pushing teams to only have 1 team.  Only the Brewers, Giants and Royals have 2 this year.  The Cubs would need another team to run with 2 before they can to keep the teams even numbered. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 15, 2021, 01:47:46 pm
Drew Gray.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/benjamin-hochman/hochman-cardinals-fan-drew-gray-previously-a-belleville-east-pitcher-was-drafted-in-the-third/article_486c0905-837e-59a1-beed-649e25c08c22.html
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 15, 2021, 03:59:41 pm
Cubs sign their 4th known UDFA, 6'8" 25-year-old strike-thrower Walker Powell. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 15, 2021, 05:01:40 pm
Piece about signed 13th rounder Erian “Chili” Rodriguez.

https://futurestarsseries.com/2021-mlb-draft-erian-rodriguez-394th-overall-chicago-cubs/
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 16, 2021, 11:03:45 am
https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07/16/what-the-cubs-are-getting-in-jordan-wicks-and-their-2021-mlb-draft-class-its-a-match-made-in-heaven/

-Whole bunch on info on Wicks and Triantos
- Felt Drew Gray was a second round value and has unlimited upside.
-Christian Franklin's swing was comped to Kris Davis, but with the ability to play CF
-Spence, Chavers and Optiz should all sign below slot but have some potential.
-18th rounder Dominic Hambley should sign soon.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 01:25:47 pm
Thanks, Blue.  Was hoping that sort of article would appear soon. 
Will be interesting to see how it goes with Wick.  Being smart and motivated and professional, those are all really cool qualities.  But talent factors, too.  I admit I sometimes wonder whether guys who are smart and sophisticated achievement guys haven't sometimes already maxed out?  WE've got the "pitch lab has untapped latent velocity potential"; but it is possible that he's already been searching and has already found everything he's got, and is already at his velocity max?  I don't know, just a though.  There is perhaps a sense that the rich always get richer, and the smart-and-motivated are always able to extra more, so maybe I've got it exactly backwards, beats me. 

I think it's also kinda fun to see both the variety of perspectives on guys, and the unreliability of these media-source rankings.  External scout has "sky's the limit" for Gray, and Cubs as 2nd-round value and great value for where they picked him; while mlb.com had him as 179, a wildman.  (In the brief video of him that I saw, he kinda made Maples look like a control artist.).

On media top-100 lists, Triantos was typically ranked middle or later.  But Longenhagen, "..the Cubs scooped up Virginia high school hit tool prodigy James Triantos in the second round. He seemed to have homes as high as the comp round, so he was good value in the last third of round two."  Probably just a reminder that if you take 30 scouts, they're probably all over the place on guys. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 01:32:56 pm
"But the Cubs are optimistic they’ll sign at least three of the remaining high schoolers, with 18th-rounder Dominic Hambley, a right-handed pitcher from Canada, expected to sign shortly."

We got word on Erian Rodriguez having already signed yesterday.  But my guess is that for Sharma and Mooney, they wrote the article prior to that report.  So, I'd assume the "at least three of the remaining" would include both Rodriguez and Hambley as two of those three. 

Depending on how the signing of other guys goes, I still wouldn't totally rule out the possibility that Gage Ziehl will still change his mind and perhaps sign.  Some extra cash, a college scholarship, sometimes a family might change it's mind once they know what they'd be turning down?   
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 02:29:42 pm
And, Rodriguez apparently signed for $125,000 slot, so nothing extra allocated there.

We don’t know how much underslot that the college senior underslots are going to be, but (with the 5% overage), seems like there might be $1M to play with. Some of that figures to go to Triados and Gray but would be disappointing if Cubs leave more than a nominal amount on the table. Is that going to happen if Ziehl sticks to his college commitment?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 04:31:01 pm
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/07/16/cubs-reportedly-sign-first-round-pick-jordan-wicks/

Wicks supposedly signed for slot. 

Media reports, of course, rarely differentiate between tentative conditional agreement to sign, versus actually having taken and passed a physical, and having actually signed an actual binding contract.  This distinction is rarely significant, but it does impact the actual timeline for formally signing overslot guys.  Overslot guys can only be signed after overage $$ and/or senior-sign $$ actually becomes available. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 04:46:24 pm
BA:

The #Cubs also signed 6th round LHP Riley Martin for $1,000. Slot value for the 184th pick is $263,700. A $262,700 under slot deal.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 04:48:21 pm
BA:

The #Cubs signed 4th round OF Christian Franklin for $425,000. Slot value for the 123rd pick is $464,500. A $39,500 under slot deal
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 04:52:01 pm
reb, you had some nice BA notes on HS picks 11, 12, 18, and 20. 
Do they have anything for #17 Olivo, the 5'11" Puerto-Rican SS? 

Or for #19 Avita, the LHP from Alabama whose brother they just signed as an UDFA catcher? 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 04:52:52 pm
BA:

The #Cubs signed 4th round OF Christian Franklin for $425,000. Slot value for the 123rd pick is $464,500. A $39,500 under slot deal

Interesting.  I'd wondered if he might be full slot or perhaps even a bit over. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 05:15:04 pm


Quote
“We were able to take some more risks, and at this point, I’m not so sure about whether we’re going to sign everybody that we selected (Tuesday),” Kantrovitz said. “But just based on how the draft rules work, there’s probably some players that we were able to take a risk on and kind of shoot for the stars and hope...

“I still don’t believe that we’re going to be in position to sign all the picks that we took (Tuesday) but certainly a few of them, and that’s sort of a rare position to be in on Day 3 to be able to buy a player out of (going to) college and send them immediately to professional baseball,” Kantrovitz said. “That was probably a product of our strategy on Day 2.

“If you are strategic about how you’re managing your pool, and if you have some flexibility going into Day 3, it enables you to be a little bit more aggressive. We saw the fruits of that play out (Tuesday).”


Pretty explicit that senior-signs and overage will NOT *all* be absorbed by Triantos and Gray.  As you note, with the one HS signed slot, that leaves the two who said they're going to college, and the last four guys in rounds 17-20. 


I agree with you, between (projected) overage ($339) and the subslots already in ($263 + $40), that's already >$600 cleared, with 4 more senior-signs left to clear a million.  I assume Triantos and Gray will get some of that, but I'm not sure a ton. 


I'm kinda doubtful that any of Olivo, Hambley, or Avitia are huge overslot guys.  Maybe you offer 6th or 5th round money, but I don't imagine those would be guys who'd be getting 3rd round slots or anything.  So I'd kinda imagine there would be enough surplus to offer any of those guys an extra $100K or $200K. 







Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 08:22:24 pm
reb, you had some nice BA notes on HS picks 11, 12, 18, and 20. 
Do they have anything for #17 Olivo, the 5'11" Puerto-Rican SS? 

Or for #19 Avita, the LHP from Alabama whose brother they just signed as an UDFA catcher?

They’re not in BA top 500 draft prospects, so no write-ups.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 08:29:29 pm
Cubs official announcement.

The #Cubs today announced they have signed nine of their first 10 selections in the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, including LHP Jordan Wicks, the team’s first-round selection (21st overall).

(Everybody but Triantos).
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 08:52:55 pm
Gray signs for $900,000——$272,100 above slot.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CRaE7Mzj6rr/
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 16, 2021, 08:56:52 pm
#8 pick Casey Opitz signs for $90,000——$78,500 below slot.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 16, 2021, 09:20:40 pm
Cubs official announcement.

The #Cubs today announced they have signed nine of their first 10 selections in the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, including LHP Jordan Wicks, the team’s first-round selection (21st overall).

(Everybody but Triantos).

Wow.  Quick.  Gray's bonus would match with a comp-round pick, in between rounds 2 and 3. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 16, 2021, 11:41:28 pm
Parker Chavers (7th) got 125K (slot - 206.5K)

Chase Watkins (9th) got 125K (slot - 152.3K)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 18, 2021, 08:45:09 pm
Cubs have $2,180,070 in available funds to pay Triantos and any of the 11-20 guys.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 18, 2021, 08:51:05 pm
Cubs have $2,180,070 in available funds to pay Triantos and any of the 11-20 guys.

To present that slightly differently, between Triantos and the 3rd-Days, they'll have $900K available for overslots.  Who knows how that will partition between Triantos and the 3rd-Days?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 19, 2021, 07:19:48 pm
Quote
Christian Olivo took an international flight yesterday and toured the facility in Mesa this morning. He'll sign shortly.
per Savermetrics, the Twitter guy who runs the website that tracks all of the Cub signings and bonus money and stuff. 


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 19, 2021, 07:22:35 pm
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1630441/8882966-talking-draft-strategy-with-cubs-vp-dan-kantrovitz

A fascinating 45-minute interview with Kantrovitz.  Some really interesting and informative stuff.  More about the process and the strategy than the players.  But included too are a few helpful scouting observations on Wicks, Gray, and Franklin. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 20, 2021, 10:15:41 am
18th rounder Dominic Hambley is the 3rd day guy who takes the overslot, $200K.
12th rounder Chili Rodriguez slot,
17th rounder Pedro Olivo apparently also signing for slot. 

Leaves $2.1M for Triantos, and that probably wraps it up. 

https://twitter.com/JonathanMayo/status/1417482337814728709?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1417482337814728709%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1417482337814728709


 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 20, 2021, 02:07:38 pm
$2.1 would be slot for pick #35 overall, in competitive balance round just after round 1.

Seems like he would sign for less but we’ll see. Doesn’t matter unless difference would go to sign one of the other HS guys still left.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 20, 2021, 03:12:55 pm
Reb, yeah, I think they must have pre-agreed on a $2M comp-round level deal, and stuck to that. 

The Kantro interview was pretty explicit that they targeted Triantos for round 2; had a number; and ensured saving enough and just enough to carry a single $80-100 bullet for Day 3.  (Kantro explicitly said that he didn't want to carry more than $80-100 to round 3, because doing so would necessitate passing up even more good-value talent on Day 2.).

I can imagine strategic value if you think the kid is worth the $2M.   Promise that you WILL pick him when your turn comes and you WILL pay him that $2M number: then *if* other during picks 36-55 want him at slot (or less), he/agent can say "won't sign below $2M", and that can keep the guy Kantro wanted available.  That probably only can work if the promise is pretty firm, and the agent believes it. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 20, 2021, 03:16:11 pm
Highly recommend the Kantrovitz interview that Craig posted.

Having listened to that now, seems like Triandos is going to get around $2, as Kantrovitz kind of implied that 75% of the pool going to the first two rounders.

Said goal was to have an extra $80,000 total for a day three guy who Cubs project as a 3rd round talent. So, that’s Hambley. Not sure how a true 3rd round projection HS guy signs for only .2 but there you are. I guess .2 can get a guy signed whereas .125 won’t. Interesting.

Would have been curious to know they get a guy to sign for $1,000 or $5,000 like a couple of the day 2 guys did but guessing it’s a promise of playing time. Kantrovitz talked a lot about how they just don’t have room for [college] guys to get playing time and how that impacts post-draft free agent signings, so promising playing time for marginal guys is probably attractive, just to get the opportunity.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 20, 2021, 04:04:33 pm
424 - Frankie Scalzo, college RHP (senior)


Don't think we ever got any scouting on him. 
Callis reported that he signed at the full $125K slot, AND mentioned 97mph fastball. That's the first scouting info. 


Scalzo is one of three GCU-affiliated guys for the Cubs:  the other two being an undrafted catcher signed, (Avitia), and the GCU commit that they drafted (Avitia, the pitching brother). 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 20, 2021, 09:51:02 pm
BA:

Frankie Scalzo

A San Diego area native, Scalzo spent one season at San Jose State before heading to Grand Canyon for his next three years. He thrived in the closer role for the Antelopes in 2021, saving 12 games and posting a 2.12 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 29.2 innings. His 1970s-era mustache and socks pulled up to his knees present an old school look when he’s on the mound, and he brings plenty of energy. Scalzo relies mostly on a 94-97 mph fastball, occasionally mixing in a short slider from 82-84 mph. It’s a hard approach with little change of pace. Scalzo’s live arm will likely get him picked somewhere in the latter half of the draft, although the fact that he’s a senior could make him an earlier money-saving pick.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 21, 2021, 10:34:50 am
Thanks for the information on Scalzo.  Here is more ... I have no idea, but I wonder if he transferred to GCU to get a chance to be a starter but quickly ended up back in relief. Hopefully, his game against Stanford will be the first of many memorable outings.

In 2018 as a freshman at San Jose State he appeared in 11 games. In 2019 at GCU he got shelled as a starter (10.61 ERA in 18 2/3 innings) but did well as a reliever (3.12 ERA in 40 1/3 innings with 1.29 ERA over his last 12 appearances). In 2020 for GCU he did not allow a run over 11 innings. Gave up just one hit in four-inning scoreless relief in GCU's 18-inning win at Stanford on Feb. 28. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: dallen7908 on July 21, 2021, 12:47:23 pm
Copied verbatim from post by Arizona Phil.

"Something to keep in mind about players who sign after being selected in the MLB Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft):

A player signed after being selected in the First-Year Player Draft must be added to the active list roster of a minor league affiliate with 15 days after signing or when he plays in his first regular season minor league game (whichever comes first), but the player does - NOT - count against his organization's 180-man minor league Domestic Reserve List until he plays in his first game or until the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season (whichever comes LAST). So there is an incentive for a club to have a drafted player - NOT - play in minor league games in the season in which he is drafted, instead delaying his pro debut until post-season instructs or Spring Training. This rule only applies to players who sign after being drafted, not to Non-Drafted Free-Agents (NDFA)."
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 21, 2021, 04:53:22 pm
17th round HS pick Olivo signs for $75,000. Didn’t even have to give him the no-problem $125,000.

Probably means nothing that Triantos hasn’t officially signed yet.

But, if Triantos took $2.0 rather than the $2.1 that Cubs can give him, the $100,000 difference could be offered to 19th rounder Avitia—-who seems interesting. Kantrovitz seemed to think that even $80,000 was a big deal to get somebody signed. $225,000 is 7th round money.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 21, 2021, 05:27:25 pm
And I believe they can still offer a full scholarship without it counting against their pool.  That is hardly a small item these days.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2021, 05:56:36 pm
Kantrovich was on the Ivy Futures podcast and said he expected the Cubs to sign 1 high schooler that would be the equivalent of second to third round pick from 11-20 group.  It sounds like either the 11th or 12th rounder might have chNged their mind after the draft.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 22, 2021, 07:14:09 pm
Kantrovich was on the Ivy Futures podcast and said he expected the Cubs to sign 1 high schooler that would be the equivalent of second to third round pick from 11-20 group.  It sounds like either the 11th or 12th rounder might have chNged their mind after the draft.

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1630441/8882966-talking-draft-strategy-with-cubs-vp-dan-kantrovitz

I'd linked that interview a few days ago, and have actually listened to it in full twice, it's really interesting. 
Kantro was pretty specific about saving ONE (singular) $80-100K "bullet" for Day 3.   That bullet was spent on Dom Hambley, the #18 pick from British Columbia was got a $200K deal. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2021, 07:32:38 pm
I found it on Twitter and was able to download it when I was in a city. I didn’t have much of a chance to read things on the board. Has the second rounder been announced yet.  I really missed the internet.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CurtOne on July 22, 2021, 07:43:30 pm
What did you do in South Dakota?  If you move your practice there, move it to the Black Hills, I think their lone tower is somewhere around Mount Rushmore.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 22, 2021, 07:54:54 pm
I found it on Twitter and was able to download it when I was in a city. I didn’t have much of a chance to read things on the board. Has the second rounder been announced yet.  I really missed the internet.

Three 3rd round HSers (edit:  3rd-day HSers!!). have been officially signed, including the "bullet" Hambley. 
The 2nd rounder has NOT been announced.  That's the surprise, because all of the other signings have already been.  (Unless there's a surprise 3rd-day HSer who signs after all.  Whether for $125, or if Triantos somehow releases a second bullet.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 22, 2021, 07:59:28 pm
What did you do in South Dakota?  If you move your practice there, move it to the Black Hills, I think their lone tower is somewhere around Mount Rushmore.

We went to the Black Hills. Very pretty to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Reb on July 22, 2021, 08:40:59 pm
Three 3rd round HSers have been officially signed, including the "bullet" Hambley. 
The 2nd rounder has NOT been announced.  That's the surprise, because all of the other signings have already been.  (Unless there's a surprise 3rd-day HSer who signs after all.  Whether for $125, or if Triantos somehow releases a second bullet.

Craig- Do you think it’s conceivable that Triantos getting the entire $2.1 available is conditional on whether somebody else is willing to sign for another “bullet.” That is, he’s already agreed to sign for $2.0 and Cubs have agreed to give him the extra .1 if it’s available (rather than Cubs just saving the .1 for themselves)?

That would explain the delay in signing him, but more likely it’s just some kind of logistical thing—-introducing him at the upcoming homestand or the like.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 22, 2021, 09:02:29 pm
Craig- Do you think it’s conceivable that Triantos getting the entire $2.1 available is conditional on whether somebody else is willing to sign for another “bullet.” That is, he’s already agreed to sign for $2.0 and Cubs have agreed to give him the extra .1 if it’s available (rather than Cubs just saving the .1 for themselves)?

That would explain the delay in signing him, but more likely it’s just some kind of logistical thing—-introducing him at the upcoming homestand or the like.

I think that's an intriguing hypothesis, reb.  Something like that might make some sense? 

By the way, I notice I wrote "3rd round" instead of "3rd Day".  :):):)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 22, 2021, 09:06:37 pm
https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/1418387392331874306?s=20
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 22, 2021, 09:29:22 pm
https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1418395751504297984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1418395751504297984%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1418395751504297984
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 22, 2021, 10:44:25 pm
As expected, that's right on the nose for the slot for Comp Round pick 35. 
-$820K above Triantos's actual pick-56 slot. 
-That should wrap up the draft signings for this year. 

I have to admit, having the quick deadline for signings is kinda fun.  Do the draft, and have it all done with in <2 weeks is kinda nice.  Way different from the Bobby Hill, Bobby Brownlie draft days when the only closure was if a kid actually went to his college classes. 

Triantos getting paid **that** far above slot really speaks to how much Kantro and Swope liked him.  And to like him that much, even though he's not a speedster athlete nor a SS/CF defense prospect, perhaps encouragingly speaks to how much they love the bat.  Cubs could sure use a high-quality hitting prospect, (or 10), so it's kinda fun to take a shot at one. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 23, 2021, 09:04:10 am
We always go for the shortstops.  About time we went after a bat first third baseman.  We haven't had any good ones since Vitters.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 23, 2021, 09:04:32 am
Or was it Orie?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 23, 2021, 09:20:32 am
Maybe Bryant?   

Tangent:  Vitters was actually kind of unusual in that he didn't even play SS in high school.  I assume a substantial percentage of big-league 2B's and 3B's at least played SS in HS.  (Corner outfielders too.).

Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: ticohans on July 23, 2021, 11:54:55 am
Triantos is the kid who never stuck out or something, right? What was the competition her faced like?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 23, 2021, 12:17:03 pm
He was in Virginia's biggest-school level.  His school won the state championship.  And last summer he was in summer showcase circuit. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 23, 2021, 12:19:27 pm
If memory serves, it was like 6 swings and misses out of 350 pitches on the showcase circuit…and his HS team won state…either the #1 or #2 classification in the state (Fairfax?)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 23, 2021, 02:13:59 pm
Maybe Bryant?   

Tangent:  Vitters was actually kind of unusual in that he didn't even play SS in high school.  I assume a substantial percentage of big-league 2B's and 3B's at least played SS in HS.  (Corner outfielders too.).

Bryant wasn't in the minors long enough to be a prospect.


Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Bennett on July 24, 2021, 01:44:20 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7E_SaEXIAYAKv8?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 26, 2021, 04:18:23 pm
Kevin Goldstein
@Kevin_Goldstein

First rounders I know there will be questions about heading into Sunday.
6. Jordan Lawler (ARZ): 50/50 proposition. They'll have $7+ million to offer.
10. Kumar Rocker (NYM): Still think it gets done.
16. Khalil Watson (MIA): Had hard $5m price tag; MIA has $4.25 left...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 30, 2021, 11:18:08 am
Jim Callis
@jimcallisMLB
Interesting
@MLBDraft
 signing by
@Cubs
 in 20th rd. California HS LHP Wilson Cunningham gets a $10k bonus but will attend U. of Chicago full-time w/Cubs team heavily assisting w/hefty tuition. Projectable 6-ft-8, currently mid-80s fastball, good aptitude.


Interesting.  So he goes to the school full time, can work out in the p[itch lab at Wrigley and maybe do minor league ball in the summer.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: Dave23 on July 30, 2021, 12:03:13 pm
Yeah, "interesting" is a good word for that...
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 30, 2021, 12:07:06 pm
Wow, that's cool and creative.  I didn't anticipate that, but think it's fun.  Yeah, tuition at Chicago is very expensive, so that's substantial. 

My nephew is at U Chicago, and they have a quarter-system that might prove really conducive to Cunningham.  Most universities run a semester system which doesn't sync well with the minor-league life. Spring semester conflicts with spring training, and fall semester at most universities begins in August.  So there aren't ANY semesters that don't conflict with the minor-league baseball schedule to varying degree. 

But Chicago's quarter system is potentially much friendlier.  fall term doesn't start until late September; conflicting with Fall instrux but not with any of the minor-league season.  Winter quarter finishes in March, so he'd maybe miss some spring training and have a variably delayed start.  But minor-league camp doesn't start as early as big-league camp anyway, so he might be only a couple weeks delayed.  So he could be carrying both Fall and Winter quarters like a regular student.  His academic schedule would obviously be delayed if he's taking off BOTH spring and summer quarters, but being able to take 2/3 of the normal quarters wouldn't disrupt his academic progress all that badly.  And he'd be able to experience much of the intellectual and social life that a normal student has access to.  Seems like a really cool fit. 

I hope it works out for him, and pitch lab has him throwing strikes at 95 within a year or two. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JR on July 30, 2021, 11:31:34 pm
That seems like a strategy that should be utilized more often.  Like for the Cubs, draft a somewhat interesting HS guy who's going to DePaul, UIC, Loyola, U of Chicago, etc., and pay their tuition while they develop in pro ball.  Or someone who can go to school near Mesa and do it that way as well.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 31, 2021, 09:04:56 am
JR, not to belabor it, but I think Chicago's academic calendar is key, and enables this in a way that wouldn't apply for Avitia at GCU or Az State in Mesa. 
-https://www.uchicago.edu/academics/calendar/

Using this year's calendar, fall term began Sept 27, and winter term was done March 12. 
-Usually "term ends" is when faculty grades are due; last-day-of-exams is several days sooner, and not every student has exams on the last day or two, and can often arrange with professor to take them early, if desired. 

Minor-league camp pre-Covid usually began ~March 5, IIRC, so Cunningham could probably conservatively get to Mesa for spring training within a week, or perhaps less, of camp opening.  With Fall semester not starting till Sept 27, he'd have the entire minor-league season, all he'd miss would be fall instrux. 

By contrast, for Avitia who lives near Mesa and will be going to school in Phoenix, spring term runs till the start of May, and fall term starts the last week of August.  So he'd miss not only fall instrux, but the end of the minor-league season and the first two months of the spring/summer minor-league life.   

Chicago's schedule is just uniquely perfect. 
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: davep on July 31, 2021, 09:11:46 am
Didn't the Cubs try that on a small scale with one of their draft choices about 8 years ago?  I remember waiting for his school to be over before he could join Boise.  He may have lived in Boise at that time.  I remember him as a college football player, but extremely vague memories, since he never went anywhere.
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: JeffH on July 31, 2021, 09:21:08 am
Quincy Carter?
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: CUBluejays on July 31, 2021, 09:24:33 am
No it was Joey M something. He was a linebacker at Boise. I think it will be easier in this case as pitchers can work on improving pitches and velocity outside of games easier than the hitter.

Edit: Found a link
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.idahostatesman.com/sports/college/mountain-west/boise-state-university/boise-state-football/article214646135.html
Title: Re: Cubs Draft 2021
Post by: craig on July 31, 2021, 09:59:16 am
Yeah, my recall is that his actual baseball participation was really slim.  Spring semester lasted pretty long, and football practice started pretty quickly.  So the sliver of summer that he actually spend with the Cubs was teensy.  He was a friend of Bill Buckner, who was hitting coach and who lived in Boise. 

As you say, WAY easier for a pitcher to practice his craft than a hitter.