Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Bleacher Bums Forum => Topic started by: Dave23 on October 16, 2022, 04:39:41 pm
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Onward and upward…
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Onward and upward…
So we hope (and expect).
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Is this for 2123?
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2023 payroll summary. All values AAV. Subject to change with trades, of course.
Players under contract:
Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667
Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):
Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000
Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck
Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or Hoerner extensions.
Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on the opening day roster at $800,000 each):
Subtotal $5,600,000
Running total = $108,841,667
That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.
$75-$85 million for 9 spots?
One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP? Maybe one more auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league deal?
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Thanks, Jeff, very helpful.
Jeff Horn 2023 payroll summary. (so I can go back and search easily!)
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Heyward and Hendricks $35 expiring.
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Running total = $108,841,667
$75-$85 million for 9 spots?
That would project the Cubs 2023 payroll to $185-195M.
Here are 2022 MLB payrolls:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
Your projected range would put them somewhere around 10th overall.
I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs. And that's before considering the notion that the 2022 Cubs have supposedly "banked" some dollars to apply to future years' payrolls.
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...Your projected range would put them somewhere around 10th overall.
I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs. And that's before considering the notion that the 2022 Cubs have supposedly "banked" some dollars to apply to future years' payrolls..
tico, could you expand on that? Why is it implausible that the Cubs might elect to spend ~10th?
Also, when you say that's "before considering" the banked-dollars notion, are you saying even with banked dollars, that ~10th is even then still an unimaginable scenario? Or are you saying that ~10th is unimaginable before the banked dollars, but that with the addition of hypothetically banked dollars, perhaps ~10th might become plausible?
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I do wonder whether there might be some league-wide increase in spending? After two summers of Covid, then uncertainty with how long lockout would remain and what the new CBA would entail, might some teams have been a little guarded?
In other words, if they hypothetically spent Jeff's hypothetical, which was ~10th last year, might that perhaps still only put them into 13-15th this upcoming year?
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I also wonder how they process Heyward? Obviously mlb bills him for 2023. But I wonder whether in a sense "banked dollars" were accounted to erase Heyward obligation?
It's interesting that Stroman's deal drops by $4 in 24. Add that to Hendricks and Heyward, and it's $40 coming off.
Happ and Hoerner are the only meaningful guys in the Arb stage. Hoerner will be Arb 1 this year. So he'll inflate. But other than relief pitchers or Madrigal, it's a couple years out before built-in arb-inflation will start to be significant.
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tico, could you expand on that? Why is it implausible that the Cubs might elect to spend ~10th?
Also, when you say that's "before considering" the banked-dollars notion, are you saying even with banked dollars, that ~10th is even then still an unimaginable scenario? Or are you saying that ~10th is unimaginable before the banked dollars, but that with the addition of hypothetically banked dollars, perhaps ~10th might become plausible?
It’s not implausible, unfortunately. It should certainly be unacceptable.
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Oh, sorry, I misunderstood! "I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs."
*I misread that, as Hoyer being the 2023 Cubs, who wouldn't accept spending into the top-10 yet at this point in the rebuild, in which case Jeff's $75-85 is too high.
*But I obviously read that wrong: the idea is that Jeff's $75-85 is too low, especially with the banked dollars, and it's 2023 Cub fans who won't accept that level of spending.
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Just to put in some made-up dollars, just to use some names that have been suggested:
1. Correa, $28
2. Nimmo $20 or CF-to-be-named-later, $6
3. Senga, $17
4. Jose Abreu, $16
5. Drew Smyly, $9
6. David Robertson $9
7. Backup C: Willson $19 or backup C $5
8. Reliever: $4
Sum: $122 (Willson + Nimmo)
$108 (Nimmo yes, Contreras no) or
$94 (no Willson or Nimmo)
My guesses are just dumb top-of-my-head, and not that market savvy, so maybe they're often 10-20% too low, beats me? Thoughts?
Just trying to get a ballpark feel for how much you might actually get for $90-120.
My guess is no Willson and no Nimmo. So that something like Correa-Senga-Smyly-Robertson-Abreu could fit.
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No way Correa signs for that AV, IMHO. And you’d be nuts to give Abreu that much. The other numbers look pretty close.
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Abreu is intersting as a Cubs target.
He fills a need and would be available on a short term deal. Call that the Hoyer sweet spot.
Thing is he's traded power for contact and had a below average ISO last year, so while he's a good offensive player he doesn't address the Cubs power deficiency.
I kinda wonder if the Cubs would consider punting CF defense to improve the offense. I don't see them committing long term, higher AAV money to an OF with the plethora of OF prospects that they have.
Would the consider Bellinger as a bounce back guy or go punt defense and sign Conforto for LF and move Happ to CF. Grisham would be another guy the Cubs might take a look at a bounce back guy.
It is really going to be an interesting off season. My guess is the Cubs spend a lot of money, but not much long term money.
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At SS, my uninformed guess is they like Turner more than Correa, but how does the draft pick loss wind up changing that equation?
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At SS, my uninformed guess is they like Turner more than Correa, but how does the draft pick loss wind up changing that equation?
Jeff, what do you think about Bogaerts? He's the lesser defensively, perhaps by a lot, yes? But I kinda feel like he's the best pure hitter, and a couple years younger than Turner, too.
I almost feel like he'd be the most flexible for 2023. Suppose Bogaerts could be blah but anti-awful at SS. You could be going Wisdom-Bogaerts-Hoerner, *IF* Wisdom was hitting well. Or, if Wisdom was in 3K-per-day mode, you could do Bogaerts-Hoerner-Madrigal?
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Jeff, what do you think about Bogaerts? He's the lesser defensively, perhaps by a lot, yes? But I kinda feel like he's the best pure hitter, and a couple years younger than Turner, too.
I almost feel like he'd be the most flexible for 2023. Suppose Bogaerts could be blah but anti-awful at SS. You could be going Wisdom-Bogaerts-Hoerner, *IF* Wisdom was hitting well. Or, if Wisdom was in 3K-per-day mode, you could do Bogaerts-Hoerner-Madrigal?
Only nine months' age difference between the two.
This would be a horrible look and something they would never do, but, if they signed Bogaerts, the best defensive alignment would probably be Bogaerts-Morel-Hoerner at 3B-SS-2B. Morel looked best defensively at SS (to me). I don't know what the metrics say.
Could they go Bogaerts-Hoerner-Morel?
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I think the entire white sox team did that. It was a Frank Mennichino thing more then a Abreu thing. Top HR hitter was Vaughn, led the team with 17 HRs.
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Could they go Bogaerts-Hoerner-Morel?
I I like that alignment.
1. If Morel knew that 2B was where the AB's were, I think he could focus there and improve to some degree?
2. I also like that because then Morel and Madrigal could both be competing for action, and maybe one or both will be anti-awful?
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Hey Craig, yes, you've landed on the correct interpretation: there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least top 5 resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in the terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.
The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the Southsiders.
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2023 payroll summary. All values AAV. Subject to change with trades, of course.
Players under contract:
Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667
Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):
Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000
Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck
Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or Hoerner extensions.
Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on the opening day roster at $800,000 each):
Subtotal $5,600,000
Running total = $108,841,667
That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.
$75-$85 million for 9 spots?
One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP? Maybe one more auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league deal?
For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to come together:
C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
(Heyward - $23M)
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB payroll commitments.
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Curious how the board feels about the likelihood of Contreras accepting QO? Would more than double is 2022 salary, give him the opportunity to prove out this higher level of offensive output, and enter 2024 FA market without QO hanging around his neck, still "just" 31 years old...
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I think he's made it clear he wants to be somewhere where he feels wanted, and that clearly isn't the Cubs.
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For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to come together:
C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
(Heyward - $23M)
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB payroll commitments.
Bookmark $30M for SS, $25M for SP1, $20M for CF, $10M for SP2, $10M for RP1, $5M for RP2. Would take 2023 payroll to about $230M ($23M of which is the sunk cost of Heyward's salary). That $230M number would have been 6th highest in 2022.
$30M at SS gets you one of the Big 4
$25M at SP1 gets you in the Senga-or-equivalent range
$20M at CF gets you Nimmo
$10M at SP2 gets you in the Smyly-or-equivalent range
$10M at RP1 gets you in the Robertson-or-equivalent range
$5M at RP2 gets you a 2022-Givens-type
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What would that team project to win?
Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS, Nimmo, SP, Suzuki. You still don't have a super star or legit ace on the team. Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot. The question is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a World Series contender?
I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy), then a bunch of 1-2 year deals. You still maintain financial flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much worse.
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Putting together some (hopefully) reasonable WAR projections around this roster:
C: Contreras - 3 WAR
1B: Wisdom - 1.5 WAR
2B: Hoerner - 4 WAR
3B: Morel - 2 WAR
SS: Big 4 SS - 5 WAR
LF: Happ - 3 WAR
CF: Nimmo - 3 WAR
RF: Suzuki - 3 WAR
BN: Yan - 1 WAR
BN: Bote - 1 WAR
BN: Madrigal - 1 WAR
BN: McKinstry - 1 WAR
BN: Higgins - 0.5 WAR
SP: Senga - 3 WAR
SP: Steele - 3 WAR
SP: Stroman - 3 WAR
SP: Hendricks - 1.5 WAR
SP: Smyly - 1.5 WAR
RP: Robertson - 1 WAR
RP: Givens - 0.5 WAR
RP: Wick - 0.5 WAR
RP: Heuer - 0.5 WAR
RP: Sampson - 1 WAR
RP: Thompson - 1 WAR
RP: Alzolay - 1 WAR
RP: Hughes - 0.5 WAR
That results in about 47 team WAR. For context here are the 2022 team WAR leaderboards:
1) LAD - 63.5
2) HOU - 56.5
3) NYY - 54.7
4) NYM - 51.7
5) ATL - 51.5
6) TOR - 48.1
7) STL - 46.2
8 ) PHI - 44.3
9) SDP - 40.8
10) CLE - 40.5
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What would that team project to win?
Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS, Nimmo, SP, Suzuki. You still don't have a super star or legit ace on the team. Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot. The question is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a World Series contender?
I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy), then a bunch of 1-2 year deals. You still maintain financial flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much worse.
If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable. It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in the NL Central.
Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga. Plenty of roster space for maturing prospects and $$$ to sign players to extensions while still pursuing FA's at those positions where our farm system isn't able to produce.
Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar," with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.
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Assuming all the above is reasonable from a salary and WAR projection perspective (big if's!) that means the Cubs go into 2023 with ~#6 overall payroll, the ~6th overall best team, and still have lots of financial flexibility in 2024 and beyond.
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...: there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least top 5 resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in the terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.
The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the Southsiders.
"...multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA..."
Good post. No excuse to not be willing and not to try.
The hesitation I have, and have expressed before, is whether FA really both can and will address as many of the needs as we want?
1. What if guys we want don't want us? Bogaerts has deep roots by now in Boston. What if Hoyer offers him $270 but he'd rather stay in Boston for $220? Turner is in a fun city with a nice group of players, and their great team hasn't won a title yet with him on it, right? What if he'd rather stay and achieve the WS goal in LA, for $180, even if Hoyer offers $240?
In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no?
2. Pitchers? What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for whatever reason? Who knows? Or if the Cub scouts don't really see Senga as being that good?
There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions we need most. 2B or 3B, like nobody, right?
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In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no?
Yes, absolutely. The Cubs have the resources, flexibility, and depth of talent to overpay if that's what it takes. This is one of the advantages of being a big market team, and "overpaying" should not be viewed as an automatic negative.
2. Pitchers? What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for whatever reason? Who knows? Or if the Cub scouts don't really see Senga as being that good?
If we don't pick up either Rodon or Senga, the pitching question does get tougher, to be sure. I'd be happy to sign any of DeGrom, Verlander, or Kershaw to a short term deal, but think it's likely all 3 stay with their current teams on new deals. Bassitt and Anderson are two intriguing options that lack the headliner stuff of a Rodon, but would still legitimately profile as +3WAR SP pickups. So it's not Rodon, Senga, or bust, but the quality of options does begin to fall apart after the Bassitt/Anderson tier. LIAB injury pickups include Severino, Thor, Eovaldi, Heaney, etc.
There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions we need most. 2B or 3B, like nobody, right?
Given the positional flexibility of Wisdom, Hoerner, and Morel, if the Cubs don't land one of the Big 4, they could absolutely sign someone in the Abreu-Rizzo-Mancini-Bell 1B class and reshuffle players around the diamond as necessary. Obviously preferable to sign one of the Big 4 SS and go from there, but the Cubs still have options if they don't.
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If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable. It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in the NL Central.
Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga.
Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar," with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.
I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at least another near SS.
Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings. Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you some extra money. It is really hard to just spend your way to a good team.
I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a projection. That team, just ball parking it would be right around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins. It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big chunk.
Instead
C: Gomes/Hedges
1B: Abreu
2B: Hoerner
SS: Corerra
3B: Widom/McInstry/Morel
LF: Happ
CF: Bellinger (Grisham)/Morel
RF: Suzuki
SP: Stroman/Hendricks/Steel/Smyly/FA 1 year
RP: Britton/FA 1 year
They only long term payroll is Corerra. I wouldn't be opposed to Senga, but I've seen him projected as more of a 3/4 vs TORP guy. I really rather let the Cubs go bargin shopping there.
Long term payroll: $47 million. And I really don't see much of a difference in how that team would project. The Cubs are still spending money and the team might be viewed as an option for Ohtani/Soto with payroll to add.
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I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at least another near SS.
Slight disagree, but I understand what you're saying here.
Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings. Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you some extra money. It is really hard to just spend your way to a good team.
$23M from Heyward is savings straight to the bottom line.
On replacing Stroman, I think we need to consider the rotation as a whole. Essentially, I'm hoping that moving into the 2024 season, we can comfortably slot Steele into Stroman's spot, and that one of Thompson, Killian, Wicks, Wesneski, etc., can be counted on as a Steele replacement. There is absolutely real savings opportunity here as our minor league pitching talent evolves.
If Contreras doesn't accept the QO, there is immediate savings at C this year. And if he does, I don't imagine the Cubs will be looking to earmark $20M for a starter there in 2024. Either this year or next, a good amount of this $ will fall to the bottom line.
And if one of the Davis, Canario, PCA, etc., group isn't ready to take over Happ's spot in 2024, that will be extremely disappointing.
In short, I disagree - I think there are meaningful savings opportunities with the money coming off next year.
I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a projection. That team, just ball parking it would be right around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins. It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big chunk.
Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?
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What if they don't want us? Great question. Lester, of course, had a special relationship with Theo. Others? We overpay...Heyward, for example. What do our coveted players see? A team that came in second in most competitions, and who didn't try too hard to keep its super stars. Or we trade them, Yu. Our FA record is not impressive.
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What if they don't want us? Great question. Lester, of course, had a special relationship with Theo. Others? We overpay...Heyward, for example. What do our coveted players see? A team that came in second in most competitions, and who didn't try too hard to keep its super stars. Or we trade them, Yu. Our FA record is not impressive.
I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him. They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt. Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with. On Rodon, not so much.
The question is, do they want him? Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.
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Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels actually do trade Ohtani. What, realistically, would you offer for him as a one-year rental?
My personal opinion would be, nothing. I’d wait and hope he makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field and the revenue his presence generates for the club. But if you were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?
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I think the Cubs are going to go after one of the four shortstops, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps75%) of getting one of them. I think they will also go after Senga or Rodon, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps 50%) chance of getting one of them. If they do get both positions, I highly doubt that they will spend much money for a center fielder. Perhaps Abreu, if they can get him for 10 - 12 million, but other than the usual middle of the pack relievers, that is going to be it for the winter as far as large investments are concerned. At the trade deadline, when their needs are more firmly defined, they might try to plug another hole.
But under no circumstances do I expect to see them bring in so much talent this winter that they can enter the season as a top tier competitor for the World Series.
I hope they sign Contreras to a long term contract.
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...Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga. ...
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.
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I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him. They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt. Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with. On Rodon, not so much.
The question is, do they want him? Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.
Agree. Don't think there is any reason why the Cubs wouldn't have a fair chance to compete for Senga, *if* they want him. But as you say, do they? And *if* they both want him and pay what it take to get him, will that scouting be vindicated? Who knows.
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Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.
$21M is essentially the value of the qualifying offer. Barring massive injury, I think the Cubs would be glad to see Stroman renew for a single year at a QO price, and then be eligible for a QO the year after.
Getting multiple single-year contract options on a solid #3, athletic pitcher, who is only 31, is a great deal of value and flexibility for the team.
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Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels actually do trade Ohtani. What, realistically, would you offer for him as a one-year rental?
My personal opinion would be, nothing. I’d wait and hope he makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field and the revenue his presence generates for the club. But if you were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?
Ohtani strikes me as one of the few players who might sign an extension with a team that trades for him, assuming he has a good experience and believes in the organization's commitment to winning (no jokes, please).
An outfielder, a shortstop, a starting pitcher, and a reliever.
Davis/Alcantara/Canario/Caissie, Hernandez/Howard/Made, Brown/Kilian/Devers, Leeper/Leigh/Correa/Sanders
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Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.
I think Stroman will try to use the opt out to get an extra year tacked on (2025, his age 34 season).
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Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?
Super science. Honestly if you look at the ZIPS projections from last year the Dodgers and Braves were the only National League teams with more than 90 wins. The Cardinals had an 88 game projection and the Phillies had 83. I think that team would fall somewhere in that range. That team could be above 90 wins, but it also could struggle.
I listened to the CHGO Cubs podcast with Brendan and Corey and they were talking about Jed on the Score. Jed talked about reducing variance in the outcomes games. Basically you are talented teams that can blow out teams and reduce 1 run games. Trying to get to that team in one off-season is going to be near impossible so the error range is going to be large for the Cubs.
The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).
That is what the Cubs need to build, not a team with a bunch of solid players. You need some stars and then surround them with really good players.
When I look at the farm Alcantara and maybe PCA OR Davis if they hit their 1% projection could be the stars. Without drafting near the top of the draft, the Cubs haven’t shown the ability to get a star later. That leaves IFA and even if the Cubs are signing Wander Franco that is 3 years away. It leaves free agency as the only viable option for getting a star.
Judge scares me so that really leaves Soto and Ohtani as a possible target. Having a clean finachial sheet is the only way that happens and allows you fill holes on the team that prospects don’t fill.
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The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).
The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.
If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being enormously different.
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Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less than my proposed team budget :)
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Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
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Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less than my proposed team budget :)
CBT tax base also includes player benefits and Cubs share of $50 M pre-arb bonus pool.
That totals about $18.
So, a $230 AAV payroll is $248 CBT payroll.
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Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers. Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
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If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers. Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
How many stars are currently playing in baseball?
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The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.
If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being enormously different.
The Cubs made the NLCS the 3 years Bryant was above 7 WAR. They haven't since he stopped.
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
Hoyer has talked about how they don't have a Bryant in the system and the current farm isn't what the farm was in 2014.
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers. Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
Agree with second part. The first part is their are only really 2 stars that are possibly coming up that make sense. Ohtani and Soto. They could just not get them.
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Further calculations reveal that the Cubs will be able to add just a shade over $100 million to the 2023 payroll (AAV basis) without hitting the luxury tax threshold.
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When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux?
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When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux?
When you go $40 million over the threshold.
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Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the threshold?
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/19/now-a-report-out-of-japan-is-connecting-the-chicago-cubs-to-kodai-senga/
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Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the threshold?
The penalty is not a “lost” draft pick.
Penalty is moving back 10 places in first round (unless pick is 1-6, in which case move back with 2nd pick)
In 2022 draft, Dodgers moved back to #40 from #30.
Looks like Mets, Dodgers, Yankees all moving back 10 spots in 2023 draft.
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So if I'm understanding, then stacking seasons above lux line has no impact on draft picks, only on financial tax levels. Yes?
-Hoyer could go $39 over lux every remaining CBA season, and the only consequence would be financial, no draft factor?
-And the 10-back draft factor doesn't matter whether it's 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year over the lux line.
I don't think Hoyer is going to go $40 over the lux line this winter, so non-factor.
Under old CBA, it seemed like even Yankees tried to avoid the triple-lux, and would try to restart the lux count. Are the penalties less now, and triple-luxing will be routine instead of exceptional? I ask because if triple-lux is still a big deal, Hoyer may prioritize staying under the line this year to defer approach of triple-lux?
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I do assume that long-term spending capacity has to factor in. tico and deeg reason that we have resources to go huge. But it would be nice for Hoyer to kind of guesstimate how high he'll be able to go in 24-25-26-27. (Even if he's thinking $280 and we think he should be spending $380, or whatever...).
After 2015, Theo identified Heyward as a Superstar and used his resources to get him. I assume Theo knew pretty reasonably what he'd have to work with in the ensuing years, and wasn't going to get budgeted to $250 and $280 and $310. But he did it anyway, accepting that he'd be tied up financially. Had he been right, history would look diffeerent. But with Theo going all in on superstar-Heyward, and not-young Lackey and Zobrist, he ended up financially tied.
A difference is that we don't already have guys stepping towards arbitration. Once Bryant and the young guys hit arbitration, the inflation path was severe even without adding new talent. Right now, it seems like other than Hoerner, there aren't any imminent arbitration-inflation guys? Keegan and steele, soon enough I guess, IF they remain good. But if cats like Mervis and Canario and PCA and Wicks do become part of the next good team, there remains a 3-year window before those kinds of guys even start the arb spiral.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/19/now-a-report-out-of-japan-is-connecting-the-chicago-cubs-to-kodai-senga/
I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have Toy available for translation. No draft-pick lost. It just makes so much sense. But as deeg noted, it all depends on how the Cubs scout him.
I admit I'm something of a believer in guys with good stuff but with control and command. I'm optimistic that Senga could be pretty solid?
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I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have Toy available for translation. No draft-pick lost. It just makes so much sense. But as deeg noted, it all depends on how the Cubs scout him.
I admit I'm something of a believer in
It just seems like a very Cub move. It fits their recent history.
I don’t know what the Cubs scouting on Senga says, obviously. Based strictly on my amateur’s eye, if the number is close to what’s being bandied about (5/$75) I’d be in favor. I think there’s a better chance he overperforms that than the opposite, and even if he crashes out it’s not a franchise-crippling deal.
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So if I'm understanding, then stacking seasons above lux line has no impact on draft picks, only on financial tax levels. Yes?
-Hoyer could go $39 over lux every remaining CBA season, and the only consequence would be financial, no draft factor?
-And the 10-back draft factor doesn't matter whether it's 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year over the lux line.
I don't think Hoyer is going to go $40 over the lux line this winter, so non-factor.
Under old CBA, it seemed like even Yankees tried to avoid the triple-lux, and would try to restart the lux count. Are the penalties less now, and triple-luxing will be routine instead of exceptional? I ask because if triple-lux is still a big deal, Hoyer may prioritize staying under the line this year to defer approach of triple-lux?
It had more to do with MLB’s revenue sharing. Teams that were repeat offenders had to pay a tax on big market teams that would have gotten revenue sharing but had to refund it (White Sox, Blue Jays, A’s). It was around $100 million that was refunded. The A’s are revenue sharing recipients again so that decreases the amount a lot and I’m not sure it is even still in the CBA about repea offenders getting taxed.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
Here is the penalties.
For $19 million over it is over $5 million dollar difference between year 1 and 3.
For $39 million over it is over $10 million dollar difference between year 1 and 3
Now the Steve Cohen tax has bite, but the difference for a repeat offender is still small. If you were $80 million over the last $20 million would cost and addition $16 million in year 1 and $22 million in year 3.
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A difference is that we don't already have guys stepping towards arbitration. Once Bryant and the young guys hit arbitration, the inflation path was severe even without adding new talent. Right now, it seems like other than Hoerner, there aren't any imminent arbitration-inflation guys? Keegan and steele, soon enough I guess, IF they remain good. But if cats like Mervis and Canario and PCA and Wicks do become part of the next good team, there remains a 3-year window before those kinds of guys even start the arb spiral.
This is a big part of why I'm so adamant on spending significantly this winter.
Further, not only are we going to have very little arb inflation over the next few years, but as I've mentioned previously, we continue to see big contracts cycle off the books the next two years.
While frustrated with how Ricketts has controlled spending the past few years, like others on the board, I'm willing to give the ownership the benefit of the doubt this winter.
But I need to see ~$90M added to the current payroll to feel like ownership is making good on its word.
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tico, I agree with your analysis. Your ~$90 would leave them ~$10 below lux; the $75-90 Jeff has suggested could leave $15-25 sub-lux. With Heyward and Hendricks $35 coming off, there could still be solid spending space entering 2024 and beyond.
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Would be helpful if Hoyer could pull off a major trade to get impact or significant guy instead of having to rely entirely on FA market.
But, hard to see how Cubs match up from the major league roster. Happ only a year away from free agency, which reduces his trade value; doesn’t seem to make sense to trade Hoerner or Steele, etc. Doesn’t seem like Morel or Velazquez would get you much in return.
Would love to get, say, Pablo Lopez, but Marlins had a huge ask for Lopez at trade deadline—insisting on Gleyber AND Oswaldo Peraza from Yankees. So, hard to see anything like that.
Wouldn’t shock me if maybe Cubs put together a package of prospects for the right guy, especially as that might help with the 40-man roster crunch. Presumably, Hoyer will be open to a variety of ways to get better in 2023.
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Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners? He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
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The path to us being good again soon is an easy one and its paved in green.
Dont trade away the prospects we've accumulated.
Just fill our holes via free agency.
We're the Cubs not the Royals.
People want to play here.
And BTW...
Bring back Rizzo.
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Dusty for Cardinals GM
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Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners? He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
I like the idea, and that Kelenic is a lefty, but can he actually play the position? Would be hesitant to commit serious prospect resources to the trade if he's just going to need to move off the role.
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Kelenic sounds like a younger Clint Frazier to me.
Seriously it is amazing how a guy like Kelenic can seem so promising in the minors, come up to the majors and be a completely overmatched whiff machine. By the way modern baseball hitting philosophies and approaches stink.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-admire-some-of-the-strongest-arms-in-baseball-infield-edition/
Fun article on best infield arms, including one of our own, and one of our top FA acquisition targets...
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I'm open to anything. I kinda hate rehashing the 2016 success, but they had successful conversions on all kinds of talent acquisition.
* The big FA splurges with Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey (and later Hamels and Darvish).
* The less pricey FA pickup with Jason Hammel, who provided solid 170 and 166 good innings in 2015 and 2016 (3.7 and 3.8 ERA's).
* Rizzo was obviously a prospect-for-prospect trade. That was a pure baseball trade, nothing $$-related at all.
* Arrieta the high-ceiling-wildman take-a-shot who turned out wildly good.
* Hendricks, the low-ceiling-soft-tosser who turned out shockingly good.
* Fowler, kind of a mixture of trade/salary-pickup and then surprise FA re-sign. (I often think of that offseason as Heyward-Zo-Lackey.
* Hector Rondon via Rule 5, he was terrific in 2015 (30 saves, 1.0 WHIP, 1.7 ERA)
* Chris Coghlan was a +115 OPS+ guy in 2015, he was huge regular contributor during the second-half surge. Scrap-heap reclamation.
So just a beautiful variety of talent-acquisition approaches taken, and a bunch of them turned out really good, at least for a while, and particularly so during the 2015 breakout leading into the 2016 magic. Obviously they made some other efforts too, that didn't always work great. (Mike Olt, Ian Stewart...). But they hit on a lot of the pickups. Whatever Hoyer and Hawkins do, they've got to click on a bunch of the moves they make.
If they were to do some prospect-for-prospect, and they picked up a 3B prospect who turned into a good player, that would be super cool.
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tico, I've never seen anything to suggest that Kelenic can't be a long term CF.
JR, in Kelenic's defense, his K rates are bad, but not "overmatched" by modern day standards. His biggest problem is that he's just not hitting the ball hard.
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Kelenic sounds like a younger Clint Frazier to me.
Seriously it is amazing how a guy like Kelenic can seem so promising in the minors, come up to the majors and be a completely overmatched whiff machine. By the way modern baseball hitting philosophies and approaches stink.
I admit some fears for Brennen and Canario along these lines. Internally, I wonder which the Cubs believe in more strongly? *IF* they had some trade for a guy they really believed in, but they had to include Brennen or Canario to get that guy, I wonder which one they'd be more willing to send?
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Fangraphs has 45 ratings on both his fielding and arm, and his defensive metrics at the major league level are inconclusive, at best. That's why I ask. If he could be counted on for at least an average CF, I'd be very interested.
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The thing about Clint Frazier is that he was never really that great in the minor leagues.
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I'd trade Davis before Canario.
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Seems like most expect Contreras to decline QO. Also, Senga contract expectations seem closer to $15M/yr than $20. With these things in mind, revamping my offseason wish list. FA adds in bold.
C: Gomes - $6.5M
1B: Abreu - $18M
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS: Correa - $35M
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF: Nimmo - $20M
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Wisdom - $800K
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP: Senga - $15M
SP: Smyly - $10M
RP: Robertson-type - $10M
RP: Givens-type - $5M
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Brings payroll to $200.45M, about in line with 2022 Braves, and still less than 2022 White Sox.
Assume Abreu is a 1+1 or 2 year deal. If Mervis emerges at the MLB level, he's not blocked, and there will be 1B/DH AB's for him and Abreu to share, if needed.
If Hoerner and/or Morel regress, the presence of Wisdom, Bote, Madrigal, and McKinstry provide a ton of flexibility.
At SS, we've got the money to get the best, so go sign Correa. CBJ gets their superstar.
Taken altogether, that IF defense rivals the 2016 crew while offering league-average-or-better offense at every position, with ample depth to cover injury/underperformance.
For OF, none of the prospects will be ready to start at the ML level in 2023, and the trio of Happ, Nimmo, and Suzuki should provide excellent defense and well-rounded offensive skills. If all 3 stay healthy and productive, Davis missed a lot of time in 2022 and wouldn't hurt for more AAA AB's. Neither would Canario. In a best case scenario where everyone is healthy and the prospects all hatch, Happ gets a QO next winter and walks, and the Cubs figure out how to balance OF AB's between Davis, Canario, Nimmo, Suzuki. It's a problem I'd love to have.
For the rotation, yes, there are bigger names out there than Senga and Smyly, but it seems all the Verlander/DeGrom types are likely to resign with their current teams. I'd certainly be open to the idea of reallocating the Nimmo $$$ to Rodon, if someone can make a compelling argument that results in a better 2023 team. However you put the pieces together here, I think the Cubs would have a very capable rotation, with enough depth and BP quality to maximize the group of mostly #3 SP-types.
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Not bad, but forget Smyly and Nimmo and get Bogaerts instead.
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What would your rotation be, Jeff? Who takes Smyly's spot?
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I'd swap out Nimmo for a short term CF, and that would be a fantastic off season for me.
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EDIT: Just realized my calculations above don't include Heyward's salary. Oops. So add $23M and know we're going over the lux tax a little this year, but have significant $$$ rolling off at the end of the year in all of Stroman, Hayward, Happ, and potentially Abreu (~$55 - 75M).
The $224M payroll would put us even with 2022 BoSox who were #6 last year, and one spot ahead of 2022 White Sox.
Cubs easily have the resources.
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I'd swap out Nimmo for a short term CF, and that would be a fantastic off season for me.
I could see some of our surplus 40 man talent being used to acquire a stop gap here.
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What would your rotation be, Jeff? Who takes Smyly's spot?
Sampson, Wesneski, Assad, Thompson, Leiter Jr.
I just don't see Smyly being $10 million better than those guys, especially if I can really fortify the offense.
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On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.
If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...
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Also, Canario doing some things in CF down in the DR...
https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1582932911904665601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582932911904665601%7Ctwgr%5E7bcdb7648c9e97cf946c2bd33b3770432df3bf86%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2F%3Fp%3D326693
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The thing about Clint Frazier is that he was never really that great in the minor leagues.
.792 OPS over his minor-league career.
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Bellinger's slugging these last two years has been .389 and .302.
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Also, Canario doing some things in CF down in the DR...
https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1582932911904665601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582932911904665601%7Ctwgr%5E7bcdb7648c9e97cf946c2bd33b3770432df3bf86%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2F%3Fp%3D326693
He's a big guy.
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Is this for 2123?
He's a big guy.
And yet he had 23 SB vs 3 CS in 2022.
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If the numbers of 75 million are anywhere near accurate, that Senga should be the Cubs the Cubs #1 priority this off season.
Sampson, Wesneski, Assad, Thompson, Leiter Jr.
I just don't see Smyly being $10 million better than those guys, especially if I can really fortify the offense.
Also, I doubt that the Cubs would have traded Scott Effross if they weren't pretty sure that he will be in their rotation next year.
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On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.
If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...
I knew you’d come around.
Bellinger's slugging these last two years has been .389 and .302.
He’s broken or he wouldn’t be a non-tender candidate. It is a pure upside play that your hitting infrastructure can fix him. He had a .203 ISO against righties and a wRC+ 92 so he could be a strong side platoon with good defense at worst. Let Morel play in CF against lefties. If you fix Bellinger though that would be a great move.
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If the numbers of 75 million are anywhere near accurate, that Senga should be the Cubs the Cubs #1 priority this off season.
Also, I doubt that the Cubs would have traded Scott Effross if they weren't pretty sure that he will be in their rotation next year.
The Cubs will need depth though. Who knows what Hendricks will be next year. The more candidates, the better.
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On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.
If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...
I really want us to graduate beyond dumpster diving better organizations' trash.
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On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.
If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...
His CF defense is not that great. Average or just above now, and certainly not trending upwards. If you had confidence he'd hit average D in center is great, but Bellinger hasn't been good since 2019. He's never been the same since he hurt his shoulder.
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OOA is a pretty great stat for outfielders. It takes into account positioning, distance traveled, batted ball data.
Bellinger was 12th in CF OOA with 5. He has in the same group as Bader, Harris, Rodriguez and Nimmo. Ortega was 40 and Morel was 43.
He improves the team and he has some upside, even if it is unlikely. If he wasn’t going to make $17 million in arbitration the Dodgers would probably want to keep him. Trent Grisham, if he gets DFA or is available in trade, would be another guy to go after.
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The Padres aren't gonna DFA Grisham. They like him a lot even with his offensive deficiencies, and his glove actually is legit elite.
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I really want us to graduate beyond dumpster diving better organizations' trash.
Deeg, context.
I'm talking about Bellinger as a last piece while proposing the Cubs spend $90M to bag Correa, Senga, Abreu, etc.
A Bellinger acquisition would keep a little payroll cushion for the trade deadline while getting some upside - however unlikely - from the position.
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Deeg, context.
I'm talking about Bellinger as a last piece while proposing the Cubs spend $90M to bag Correa, Senga, Abreu, etc. Fantastic way to keep a little payroll cushion going into the trade deadline while getting some upside, however unlikely, from the position.
I get context, Tico, but here's my context - do you trust the Cubs to view Bellinger that way? It's like letting a 17 year-old take the car to a party after he swears he won't drink. Sure, they have a license - but have they earned that trust?
My fear is the Cubs sign Abreu and trade (probably) for Bellinger and say "See? These are big names! We're a big club!" and call it a day. Context.
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Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.
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Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.
No one here is the one actually making the decisions, either.
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Bellinger is not a trade candidate. Hard to believe that anybody is going to commit a $17 arb salary to him, other than perhaps the Dodgers if they decide to offer him a contract.
If Dodgers non-tender him, he’ll be a FA.
Bellinger is a way better defensive CFer than anybody Cubs played out there in 2022, other than perhaps Hermosillo. A definite defensive upgrade.
We know that shoulder surgery for pitchers often imperil their career. Ditto for Bellinger. Not sure that anybody has a more violent swing than Bellinger and his surgically repaired front shoulder doesn’t seem to be holding up to pitching velocity. We know what happens when a guy tries to work around velocity vulnerability——he just opens up more holes in his swing. It’s been a sad case for a guy who seemed maybe headed to HOF at one time.
Not really keen on giving Nimmo a long multi-year contract and doubt Cubs will pursue him aggressively. So, could see taking a short deal on Bellinger at right price. Why not.
Who knows, maybe Bellinger just needs two years post-surgery for some kind of semi-recovery. Seems a longshot but who knows.
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My sense about the Cubs roster discussion here for 2023 is that more folks coming around to the notion that Cubs could actually be serious 2023 contenders to win something if front office does what is being suggested.
That seems like a change from the constant doom-and-gloom talk earlier and the what’s-the-point of trying to improve next season and maybe actually better if Cubs stink again for long-term rationales.
Maybe it was seeing 87 and 89 win teams on the verge of going to the World Series. Maybe it was the Cubs better 2nd half W/L record. Maybe it’s the natural Hope Springs Eternal off-season dreams. Maybe it’s Deeg’s Manic side temporarily besting his Depressive side (for the moment).
Whatever it may be, glad to see talking about winning now.
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Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.
Pretty sure no one in the Cubs is either.
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Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.
Nor is there any indication that ownership is thinking that way. Other than Deeg's long standing and obvious bias.
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Several people are in favor of signing Bellinger at the right price. But I have not seen any suggestions on what the "right price" should be? What is the highest the Cubs should offer, if he is non-tendered?
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Place me firmly in the "don't sign Bellinger" camp.
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I'd take him.
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I defer to Cubs analysis and that of you guys. But with Jeff, I'd vote "no" on Bellinger? He's been really bad for these recent years. .250-OBP and .300's slugging. The slump-version of Patrick Wisdom?
It's fine to **hope** he improves, but I'd not expect him to shift very far up the anti-awful continuum? Sure, maybe he can break out and get up around the Patrick Wisdom level offensively, but even that would be a pretty big jump for him.
Bellinger has been .240-.265 OBP; .360-.333 OBP. Big downgrade versus Ortega offensively.
Jeff has suggested some younger prospect guys. *IF* you go that way, and *if* the guy you try turns out well, you might then have him under club control for a while, even if as depth guy replaced as starter by Canario or PCA. But if you get Bellinger, he's just immediately a free agent again even if hes antiawful.
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I have no problem with signing Bellinger if the money is low, and he does not block anyone else.
But if I could ONLY have Canario OR Bellinger enter spring training with the Cubs, I would choose Canario without hesitation.
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Several people are in favor of signing Bellinger at the right price. But I have not seen any suggestions on what the "right price" should be? What is the highest the Cubs should offer, if he is non-tendered?
Major league minimum with several million in performance bonuses.
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Nor is there any indication that ownership is thinking that way. Other than Deeg's long standing and obvious bias.
If you live in an echo chamber, sure.
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Ownership didn't spend ahead of 2019, 2020, or 2021 when the championship core was still in place. They spent on Stroman and Suzuki last year. But they filled the rest of the roster with lightning in a bottle candidates, low ceiling established MLB players, and a bunch of guys who had two good months in 2021. They ignored last year's robust shortstop market and finished with the 14th highest payroll (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022) despite being the 3rd or 4th most valuable franchise in MLB.
There's no reason to assume ownership will spend enough to win in 2023 at this point. Maybe they will. But based on the last four years, it's up to them to prove they care about more than maximizing profits.
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Ownership didn't spend ahead of 2019, 2020, or 2021 when the championship core was still in place. They spent on Stroman and Suzuki last year. But they filled the rest of the roster with lightning in a bottle candidates, low ceiling established MLB players, and a bunch of guys who had two good months in 2021. They ignored last year's robust shortstop market and finished with the 14th highest payroll (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022) despite being the 3rd or 4th most valuable franchise in MLB.
There's no reason to assume ownership will spend enough to win in 2023 at this point. Maybe they will. But based on the last four years, it's up to them to prove they care about more than maximizing profits.
The Cubs had the second highest payroll in all of MLB in 2019 I believe. So hard to complain about their spending that year. 2020 was, shall we say, an unusual year by any standards. 2021 was to a lesser extent affected by the pandemic, and also the year in which the Cubs seemed to begin transitioning from relying on the core players. But, yes 2021 and 2022 were years in which the Cubs reduced payroll substantially.
But as I pointed out earlier, following the 2016 championship season the Cubs increased their spending from #14 in that year to #8 in 2017 to #4 in 2018 and #2 in 2019. It was only as confidence in relying on the core who were about to become free agents lessened that the spending dropped substantially.
But time will tell whether and to what extent the Cubs' payroll becomes more what one would expect from a major market team.
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As the guy who first suggested Bellinger, I am amused at the level of discussion. I was thinking about the ways that some teams come together, and I looked around for a player whose shine has come off the star. In fantasy for a couple of years, he was #1 position player, but not anymore. I had then and I have not now heard any chatter about the Cubs or anyone else coveting him. I doubt he will be non tendered. The Dodgers may very well try to fix him themselves, and, IF, they wished to put him on the market, I'm sure that there are a number of teams that would outbid the Cubs. So, all those opposed can sleep tight. The only comment that sort of confused me was that we would prefer to have a rookie suspect with a high ceiling try to fill a hole rather than help a player regain his ceiling. Not sure that's good thinking.
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When the Ricketts bought the Cubs, it seems clear that the purchase was also about developing the area around the ballpark. The linked piece below from pre-covid 2019 says the Ricketts claim to have invested over 1/2 Billion $, including renovating Wrigley itself. Obviously, this investment was intended to maximize their profits connected to Wrigleyville. As business folks do, they do this by loans, mortgages, credit—-with the goal of turning these projects into a cash cow, if successful. Doubtful if any of this was ever intended to go toward Cubs player payroll. Payroll depends on revenues directly connected to the team, attendance, broadcast of games, concessions, etc. Think most every team operates that way. Maybe Steve Cohen is doing something different for a couple years, who knows. But, it's rare.
Then, in 2020, covid hit. Doesn’t take a genius to figure that whatever earnings expected to be generated via Wrigleyville projects for the Ricketts were hard hit. But, still have to pay your creditors, covid or no-covid.
Probably a reasonable inference that these covid-related issues for the Ricketts had some impact on player payroll. If true, that bothers me because doubt that profits would have impacted payroll, so why should credit problems? We’ll probably never fully know the connection, if any, but it smells bad. So, I get the frustration about the covid era payrolls. Still, it’s speculation about how these matters actually connect.
So, now things have settled back into a semblance of normalcy (for now, anyway). Let’s see where the payroll goes from here.
What is unfortunate is the amnesia and distortion by some about the Ricketts previous pre-covid payrolls— which were high and among the very top spenders. And not to mention a World Championship, which some seem to have forgotten. Sad if anybody can’t still appreciate that longer than 10 minutes after the parade.
So, let’s see what happens going forward. An open question.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/cubs-owners-refinance-wrigley-field-plaza-hotel
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As the guy who first suggested Bellinger, I am amused at the level of discussion. I was thinking about the ways that some teams come together, and I looked around for a player whose shine has come off the star. In fantasy for a couple of years, he was #1 position player, but not anymore. I had then and I have not now heard any chatter about the Cubs or anyone else coveting him. I doubt he will be non tendered. The Dodgers may very well try to fix him themselves, and, IF, they wished to put him on the market, I'm sure that there are a number of teams that would outbid the Cubs. So, all those opposed can sleep tight. The only comment that sort of confused me was that we would prefer to have a rookie suspect with a high ceiling try to fill a hole rather than help a player regain his ceiling. Not sure that's good thinking.
Sorry, Curt, I posted below about Bellinger month-and-a half ago. Old story, revised:
Very good chance that Bellinger could be non-tendered this off-season.
If Dodgers arb him again, no way that he’s worth the $17 or so you’d have to take on for him via trade. AND trade away guys of any value to get him? Not going to happen.
If he’s non-tendered, a plausible case could be made for Cubs to sign him at WAY less than an arb salary for one year (he’s a FA after 2023 otherwise). Cubs have been terrible in CF this season——Velazquez and Morel are poor defensive guys in CF, Ortega is blah as a starter, Davis probably needs bunch of games at AAA in 2023. Maybe even use Bellinger at 1B. Could see that.
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Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners? He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
I suppose that’s a possibility.
My thought is to get a short-term CFer who plays the position defensively very well.
Aside from Bellinger or Kelenic, it seems that Rays likely to decline club option on Kiermaier. He had hip surgery, so that depends on a medical assessment by Cubs, if any interest. Sure, he’s in a decline, but he can catch the ball and hit some and he figures to have to take a significant pay cut in free agency.
My thought is that Brennen Davis could be a CF factor by June next year and PCA starts the season in AA and could certainly be in majors some time in 2024 if all goes well. So, a 1-year commitment to an outside guy makes some sense. Don’t see a 4-5 year commitment to Nimmo. Sure, Nimmo could slide over to a corner but his value is in CF and you’d be paying for that if you sign him.
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Ortega: .242/.332/367 vs righties
Bellinger: .209/.272/.412 vs righties last year.
You would be sacrificing OBP for power and better defense.
I have no problem with signing Bellinger if the money is low, and he does not block anyone else.
But if I could ONLY have Canario OR Bellinger enter spring training with the Cubs, I would choose Canario without hesitation.
The money you pay him doesn’t really matter. It would be a 1 year deal and they Cubs have enough room in the budget that they could trade for him and give him $17 million for next year. It wouldn’t limit what they are going to do. It isn’t AAV that matters it is the years.
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The point of signing Bellinger is projecting that he hits better than .209 against righties.
He’s not getting $17 as a free agent but he’s still going to get a sizable contract from whatever club projecting improvement. If we assume he’s the same guy from last two seasons, then have to pass. He’ll be playing for a club that projects more.
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Ortega: .242/.332/367 vs righties
Bellinger: .209/.272/.412 vs righties last year.
You would be sacrificing OBP for power and better defense.
The money you pay him doesn’t really matter. It would be a 1 year deal and they Cubs have enough room in the budget that they could trade for him and give him $17 million for next year. It wouldn’t limit what they are going to do. It isn’t AAV that matters it is the years.
I can't believe that any team would be idiotic enough to offer him 17 million for one year. Money might not mean much to you, but no GM will bet that much money on a 20 to 1 shot.
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Sorry, Curt, I posted below about Bellinger month-and-a half ago. Old story, revised:
Very good chance that Bellinger could be non-tendered this off-season.
If Dodgers arb him again, no way that he’s worth the $17 or so you’d have to take on for him via trade. AND trade away guys of any value to get him? Not going to happen.
If he’s non-tendered, a plausible case could be made for Cubs to sign him at WAY less than an arb salary for one year (he’s a FA after 2023 otherwise). Cubs have been terrible in CF this season——Velazquez and Morel are poor defensive guys in CF, Ortega is blah as a starter, Davis probably needs bunch of games at AAA in 2023. Maybe even use Bellinger at 1B. Could see that.
Yes, and you were responding to my post earlier that morning. What the hell is wrong with you? You think you have to have credit for everything?
Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in '22
« Message by CurtOne on September 03, 2022, 11:55:16 am »
A player that we might be able to obtain at a discount at this time is Bellinger. After a couple of HOF type seasons, he has really struggled with nagging injuries and terrible seasons. If he could be gotten for a middlin prospect and a reliever, and he returned to form that would be a gam ble worth taking.
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Play nicely, children.
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Yes, and you were responding to my post earlier that morning. What the hell is wrong with you? You think you have to have credit for everything?
Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in '22
« Message by CurtOne on September 03, 2022, 11:55:16 am »
A player that we might be able to obtain at a discount at this time is Bellinger. After a couple of HOF type seasons, he has really struggled with nagging injuries and terrible seasons. If he could be gotten for a middlin prospect and a reliever, and he returned to form that would be a gam ble worth taking.
I think you can answer your own question.
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Yes, and you were responding to my post earlier that morning. What the hell is wrong with you? You think you have to have credit for everything?
Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in '22
« Message by CurtOne on September 03, 2022, 11:55:16 am »
A player that we might be able to obtain at a discount at this time is Bellinger. After a couple of HOF type seasons, he has really struggled with nagging injuries and terrible seasons. If he could be gotten for a middlin prospect and a reliever, and he returned to form that would be a gam ble worth taking.
Would be helpful if Hoyer could pull off a major trade to get impact or significant guy instead of having to rely entirely on FA market.
But, hard to see how Cubs match up from the major league roster. Happ only a year away from free agency, which reduces his trade value; doesn’t seem to make sense to trade Hoerner or Steele, etc. Doesn’t seem like Morel or Velazquez would get you much in return.
Would love to get, say, Pablo Lopez, but Marlins had a huge ask for Lopez at trade deadline—insisting on Gleyber AND Oswaldo Peraza from Yankees. So, hard to see anything like that.
Wouldn’t shock me if maybe Cubs put together a package of prospects for the right guy, especially as that might help with the 40-man roster crunch. Presumably, Hoyer will be open to a variety of ways to get better in 2023.
It’s not getting talked about much, but I’m not going to be surprised to see the Cubs make a deal of prospects for a veteran (probably a bat) with a couple of years left on a biggish contract. I have no doubt they’ll make a mid-tier FA signing like Stroman or Suzuki, but until proven otherwise I think they’ll be more interested in being seen as finalists on the big names than actually spending that much money. Apart from SS the market for bats isn’t all that great this winter, and while it will horrify many here, buying a veteran via trade is a way to convince casual fans they’re trying to contend without spending really big.
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I can't believe that any team would be idiotic enough to offer him 17 million for one year. Money might not mean much to you, but no GM will bet that much money on a 20 to 1 shot.
I don’t think he’ll get that. The point is one a year deal, it doesn’t matter what the Cubs pay him. His salary at $X doesn’t affect what the Cubs would do this year, they have a large amount of money to spend.
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You seem to think that just someone has money, they are willing to toss it down the sewer.
Most people that have money, have it mainly because they don't waste it.
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You’re right, Curt. I forgot the context from those September Bellinger posts. My bad.
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https://theathletic.com/3719366/2022/10/23/cubs-offseason-bullpen/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Bullpen article. Collects relevant quotes from Hoyer's post-season press conference, recognizing that they want veteran help and aren't OK with the internal guys.
References some of the good stats (good K-rates), and awful HR-allowed and high walk rates.
Lists 8 existing names: Hughes, Keegan, Alzolay, Leiter, Wick, Uelman, Rucker, Estrada.
-He didn't mention Manny Rodriguez.
In Keegan context, Ross comments on wanting good pitchers and figuring out how to use them. "He’s done a really nice job (with) a multi-inning role out of the bullpen that I really trust and he’s also done a nice job starting. The more of those guys that can do both, I’ll take them all. Give me all the good pitchers and we’ll figure out where to slot them. "
-I think that broad perspective is relevant, given the work that Keegan, Wesneski, Assad, and Sampson flashed as starters.
-I assume Hoyer will want to add two FA rotation guys (Senga and Smyly, hypothetically) to mix in with Stroman and Hendricks.
*If* all those guys plus Steele are healthy there might not be any rotation spot available for Keegan, Wesneski, Assad, and Sampson. I could easily imagine Hoyer and Ross being fine with carrying two (or maybe even three?) of those "could-be-starters" in the bullpen, with two (or maybe only one?) on reserve at Iowa?
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Craig, there are 26 pitchers currently on the 40-man, 60-day IL, or restricted list. I usually figure 20 (+/-1) pitchers on a fully flushed out 40-man roster.
Two of those 26 are pending FAs (Miley and Smyly). That leaves 24.
24 plus 4 spots for FAs (2 SP and 2 RP) plus a minimum of one Rule 5 protect add (Ben Brown) equals 29. That means there will need a minimum of nine casualties from the current slate.
Brault, Espinoza, Marquez, Mills, Roberts, Rodriguez, Rucker, Vizcaino, and Wieck?
If they want to add any other Rule 5 protect candidates (Correa, Devers, Jensen, Sanders), they'll have to start cutting even more deeply (Uelmen?)
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Seems to me the bullpen is really short on LH relievers. I imagine prioritizing at least one guaranteed lefty will happen. (Heh heh, the Sheriff isn't available again, is he?).
Hoyer was really effusive about Miley in his press conference. Questions:
1. I wonder if he'd profile well as a relief lefty? Career-wise, he's got pretty good lefty splits.
2. I wonder if he'll get any market traction as a rotation guy? At his age, velocity, and after his injury-limited 2022, I doubt any contenders would guarantee him a rotation spot? Or who knows, perhaps somebody will see him as an intelligent, low-priced guy to fill out the back of a rotation?
3. I wonder if Hoyer might have interest in signing him as a "good pitcher, and we’ll figure out where to slot them" and "intelligent spending" guy? Not necessarily as a rotation guy, but I'd think he might do pretty well as a flexible relief guy. Veteran that Ross likes and trusts. Good clubhouse veteran influence.
4. If Hoyer/Ross see him as a good pitcher, and he was interested in coming back as a utility pitcher, how much do you think he'd cost, and what kind of price might Hoyer consider "intelligent spending"? For example, would $6 be unintelligent, too much to offer? Would $5 be something reasonable, perhaps with incentives for more?
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Craig, there are 26 pitchers currently on the 40-man, 60-day IL, or restricted list. I usually figure 20 (+/-1) pitchers on a fully flushed out 40-man roster.
Two of those 26 are pending FAs (Miley and Smyly). That leaves 24.
24 plus 4 spots for FAs (2 SP and 2 RP) plus a minimum of one Rule 5 protect add (Ben Brown) equals 29. That means there will need a minimum of nine casualties from the current slate.
Brault, Espinoza, Marquez, Mills, Roberts, Rodriguez, Rucker, Vizcaino, and Wieck?
If they want to add any other Rule 5 protect candidates (Correa, Devers, Jensen, Sanders), they'll have to start cutting even more deeply (Uelmen?)
Thanks, Jeff. Good perspective. I'm not sure how to think it through. But, given the actual talent in the system, I wonder if the 20-20 might be at least 21/19 pitcher this year, or perhaps even go 22/18?
*The system is awful for position depth.
*If you break with 13 position guys, I'm not sure I can find five 40-man position players to option to the minors?
Of the current roster, I see Amaya, Canario, and Velasquez as the only guys on the current 40-man roster with options available that are worth sending to the minors as 40-man guys. Davis, who else is going to be added to the 40-man and be a minor-league 40-man guy?
"24 plus 4 spots for FAs (2 SP and 2 RP) plus a minimum of one Rule 5 protect add (Ben Brown) equals 29. That means there will need a minimum of nine casualties from the current slate.
Brault, Espinoza, Marquez, Mills, Roberts, Rodriguez, Rucker, Vizcaino, and Wieck?"
That's a good 9-man guess. Couple thoughts:
1. If you keep 21, or even 22, that reduces your cut-list by one or two names, correct?
2. Rodriguez: I'd keep, ahead of
3. Leiter, Wick, or Heuer. (I'd de-roster them in that order, I think.).
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Of the current roster, I see Amaya, Canario, and Velasquez as the only guys on the current 40-man roster with options available that are worth sending to the minors as 40-man guys. Davis, who else is going to be added to the 40-man and be a minor-league 40-man guy?
Higgins, Bote, and Madrigal are all optionable.
There seems to be a consensus that Kevin Alcantara will be added to the 40-man roster next month. Yonathan Perlaza and Darius Hill are bubble guys. I do find it interesting that Hill played a lot of CF after his promotion to Iowa after having played it very little in the lower minors.
That's a good 9-man guess. Couple thoughts:
1. If you keep 21, or even 22, that reduces your cut-list by one or two names, correct?
2. Rodriguez: I'd keep, ahead of
3. Leiter, Wick, or Heuer. (I'd de-roster them in that order, I think.).
Correct.
Even though he's eligible for arbitration and due a raise to $1.5-ish, I'll be surprised if Wick gets derostered. Good Wick is valuable, either on a contending team or as a trade asset.
I think they'd love to keep Leiter. It's just his out-of-options status that complicates matters.
I think they'd like to roster Sanders (for example), even if they have to risk losing Rodriguez to do it. He can't throw strikes and he can't miss bats.
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I'm fine with cutting ManRod from the 40 man. Yes, the velo is nice, but it seems the FB is relatively hittable and the command is terrible. Cubs have a lot of RP that are much more interesting than Rodriguez at this point.
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I think Bote can be outrighted to Iowa, and no one will pick him up along with his contract. That leaves him in Iowa next season, available for the 40 man roster if needed.
In addition, I think they can let Reyes, Rivas, Quiroz, Ortega and even Young and/or Crook go, and replace some of them with free agents with roster invites rather than 40 man roster slots.
Whatever they do, they are going to have to expose several pitchers to the draft that they would probably not want to lose. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they were trying to work out trades for Wick, Leiter and Sampson shortly after the season ends.
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Higgins, Bote, and Madrigal are all optionable.
...Kevin Alcantara will be added to the 40-man roster next month. Yonathan Perlaza and Darius Hill are bubble guys. ....
Helpful info.
1. Higgins keep at Iowa.
2. Alcantara, yes.
3. Madrigal, keep him... but with the expectation that he'll be a 25-man guy.
4. Perlaza, no. If you lose him, you lose him.
5. Hill: No? If you lose him, you lose him?
6. BOTE: No? What are the rules with his guaranteed contract? ($4-$5.5-$7-with-$1-buyout). If you deroster-reassign him, does anybody who claims him need to take on his full contract? (That isn't going to happen.) Assuming nobody claims him, is he obligated to accept a reassignment to Iowa in order to keep the guaranteed money? Or can he keep his full guarantee from the Cubs but still be free to go sign with Louisville or Albuquerque or Kansas City?
I'm thinking you can reassign him, but you'll still keep him. If/when you do want to call him from Iowa and add him back to the 25/40, by that time some 60-man space will have opened.
Oops, Dave just posted this. Are Dave and I wrong?
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So, I've got:
1. Higgins, Amaya, Alcantara, Davis, Canario, and perhaps Velasquez on the 40-man roster but in the minors. (No infielders, for the moment, but Bote outrighted to Iowa.) 2. That's either 5 or perhaps 6 rostered 40-man guys in the minors.
3. 13 position guys in the majors. So 18 or 19 roster guys on the 40.
That leaves 21 or 22 pitchers.
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No, you both are correct. Bote can be outrighted and will be subject to a waiver claim which, you correctly assess, will not happen. He can elect free agency if he wishes, but he will forego his generous contract.
Assuming nobody claims him, is he obligated to accept a reassignment to Iowa in order to keep the guaranteed money?
Yes.
Or can he keep his full guarantee from the Cubs but still be free to go sign with Louisville or Albuquerque or Kansas City?
No.
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If the Cubs know that Wick has an issue that needs time to heal or something, they should keep him. If not, he was BAD Wick more often than GOOD Wick this last season.
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"Oops, Dave just posted this. Are Dave and I wrong? "
A reasonable concern when Dave agrees with you.
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...I do find it interesting that Hill played a lot of CF after his promotion to Iowa after having played it very little in the lower minors....
Yeah, I'd love to hear what they think. I wonder if he's something of a 1-tool guy, but isn't bad at the others? Defensively lacks the arm or speed to stand out or scout well, but maybe actually can catch the ball fine and gets good jumps and is capable of being respectable defensively anywhere, perhaps even in center? Offensively lacks the power or speed to be a serious prospect; but maybe his contact is so good that he might be able to hit .280 and have a .730 OPS?
I wonder if his chance of making the 25-man roster out of camp might almost be as high or higher than his chance of making the 40-man entering Rule 5. Higher ceiling guys for the 40. And he's not the toolsy type that rebuilding teams prioritize in Rule 5? But if he plays fundamentally sound baseball and can hit the ball, maybe he makes it as a utility outfielder who can make contact, and when guys go onto the 60-man that's when spots opens for him?
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Craig, in any other offseason, I wouldn't give Hill much of a shot. But I think they need a replacement for Ortega. The FA list is a wasteland.
And I wonder if Perlaza is a little bit different case because he's a six year minor league free agent and wouldn't be subject to the Rule 5 stipulations.
I'd be happy adding those two guys and spending all of the position player free agent dollars on the infield.
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If the Cubs know that Wick has an issue that needs time to heal or something, they should keep him. If not, he was BAD Wick more often than GOOD Wick this last season.
I agree not only with Dave, I agree with you, Curt! Wick's been around long enough, and he's been inconsistent. I wouldn't mind moving on. I don't see the stuff being exceptional, or any reason to assume he's going to consistently have better control future than he's had over the last several years, as his control has seemed to be drifting worse, not getting better.
Heh heh, I'm ManRod's only fan (and even there I'm just kinda interested, with no conviction that he'll become better than he's been.). But personally, I'd kinda think that *IF* the Cubs got a full season of healthy Rodriguez, that *IF* healthy his breaking ball might settle in. If his slider is working, I think his upside is higher than Wick. And since Wick's already had a bunch of years to confirm that he's OK but isn't likely to ever be consistently good, I'd kinda be interested in taking another shot on Manny. He's got higher breakout possibility, I think? Again, I'm not saying probable; just possible, and perhaps with higher possibility than for Wick.
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I was wondering to myself last night who would say no in a Rowan Wick for Nick Maton trade…
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Before this season, Wick gave up only 3 homers in 72 career innings, accompanied by a good K rate.
So, I think Wck has shown something that could return.
Watching Rafael Montero in post-season, a guy with a good arm who is now lights out after a series of poor years. Sometimes takes patince.
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Craig, agreeing with both Davep and means your rep has taken a huge hit today.
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Before this season, Wick gave up only 3 homers in 72 career innings, accompanied by a good K rate.
So, I think Wck has shown something that could return.
Watching Rafael Montero in post-season, a guy with a good arm who is now lights out after a series of poor years. Sometimes takes patince.
Yeah, patience for a pitcher to click can indeed take patience, absolutely. Two thoughts:
1. I think that's way more true for pitchers than hitters. Pitchers can add something or fix something, well into their career, and things can click at unexpected times. I don't think that happens very often for hitters, or at least not nearly as much.
2. Patience is kind of a scouting thing. Sometimes it takes patience, but there are only so many 40-man spots! Who should I be patient with? Marquez, Roberts, Rodriguez, Rucker, Vizcaino, Wick? *Any* of them might, hypothetically, someday later emerge. ManRod, Marquez, and Vizcaino all, if healthy, might throw harder than Wick, and be more nasty. But at this point in time, I have no idea which if any is going to click and when.
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"Oops, Dave just posted this. Are Dave and I wrong? "
A reasonable concern when Dave agrees with you.
Actually, it was Craig that agreed with ME. That shows that even college professors can have good judgement.
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Rodriguez and Wick are both on the 40 man roster. If I did not have room on the roster for both, I would take off Wick, for two reasons. First, I think that Rodriguez has a higher ceiling (although a lower likelihood of reaching that ceiling) and second, we probably could get a little more in trade for Wick than for Rodriguez.
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Craig, in any other offseason, I wouldn't give Hill much of a shot. But I think they need a replacement for Ortega. The FA list is a wasteland.
And I wonder if Perlaza is a little bit different case because he's a six year minor league free agent and wouldn't be subject to the Rule 5 stipulations.
I'd be happy adding those two guys and spending all of the position player free agent dollars on the infield.
If you want to seriously try and compete in 2023, I don’t see any way you can ignore the OF in the FA market.
Ultimately, baseball games are won by scoring more runs than the other team. Simples. How you go about it is why VPBOs and GMs get big money - it’s complicated. But for the Cubs, they need to improve all over. They only had three qualified players with an OPS over .700. Everyone says they’re going to go for defense/game management at catcher. So where does the massive improvement that’s needed come from?
I certainly admit that there will be stronger FA OF classes than this one. But OF remains the easiest place to find offense, generally speaking. You can hang everything on signing one of the big SS to a $300 million contract - but what if you don’t? At that, the two top guys (Correa and Bogaerts) were 19th in baseball in OPS among qualified hitters. They’re not Judge or even Harper.
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Blue, I think you've mentioned that Hoyer had said he wanted to get more dominant and have fewer close games.
Today's Sharma article includes some of that:
https://theathletic.com/3726347/2022/10/25/cubs-postseason-astros-phililes/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
“We have to be a little quicker-strike offense than we were,” Hoyer said. “I like the fact that we’re making more contact. I did think there were times we grinded our at-bats. But we lacked the ability to pull away in different games and that’s something we have to get better about. We played so many close games throughout the year because we couldn’t stretch games out and that really taxes the bullpen and it leads to more randomness. The best teams in baseball blow people out.”
The Cubs were 18th in ISO (.148) and 17th in home runs (159) last season and will likely lose Willson Contreras, who was first and second on the team in those respective categories. Hoyer will have his work cut out for him in upgrading that area in 2023, but with internal development and external additions, it shouldn’t be impossible. Power is a huge part of building a great team. The top four teams in ISO (Atlanta, the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros) won 101, 111, 99 and 106 games, respectively. Eight of the top nine teams in that category made the postseason.
Different ways to win, of course. But if you start Hoerner and Madrigal most of the time, team ISO isn't going to thrive. That the Cubs were even top-20 is almost surprising. Jeff, you mentioned the possibility of Hill perhaps getting some CF action, given the poverty of OF options. He's not going to be an ISO guy.
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There are lots of different way to win. Many of the posters on this board have a high appreciation for defense. INteresting that the WS Phillies completely punted defense in favor of hitting and power.
Per Sharma: "according to Outs Above Average, only the Nationals were worse than the Phillies’ -35; Defensive Runs Saved had the Phillies ... at -34".
That defense with Schwarber and Castellanos in the OF, Brohm at 3B, it's REALLY bad. But at least for this season, that defense didn't keep them out of the playoffs, and and in the playoffs hasn't kept them out of the WS.
Not to be a total copy-cat. But I think for the Cubs, scoring runs is their biggest challenge, both short-term and over the foreseeable future. I'm not opposed to prioritizing offense at the expense of a little defense in CF, or at 3B.
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Craig, in any other offseason, I wouldn't give Hill much of a shot. But I think they need a replacement for Ortega. The FA list is a wasteland....
I'd be happy adding those two guys and spending all of the position player free agent dollars on the infield.
Heh heh, *IF* they were to sign both Bogaerts and Correa, I'd be totally fine with winging it in center with Hill/Ortega/Velasquez/Canario/PCS/Davis.
I appreciate the logic. Bogaerts/Correa/Turner are all asset big-league hitters. Wisdom and Madrigal are not, and the farm has no good-hitting infielders in view. Get two good hitting infielders during a winter when there are some good ones available. April would look pretty different if you added two of the shortstops.
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https://twitter.com/michael_cerami/status/1585272364241195009?s=46&t=5gWg6vdOH9czDrIKqMCnpg
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https://twitter.com/michael_cerami/status/1585272364241195009?s=46&t=5gWg6vdOH9czDrIKqMCnpg
The tweet after that is the interesting one. Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
·
7h
It's all just an incredible and frustrating whiff when it was so clear to us at the time.
And I guess the point of all this is just to remind ourselves that the Cubs should not be let off the hook and need to be held to a high standard this winter. They need to spend. Big.
And that's from a writer at BN, ROFL.
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And that's from a writer at BN, ROFL.
I think they had a similar tone about this time last year. If the Cubs don't spend this offseason, I'm sure they'll be back to "Well actually, signing Jose Iglesias instead of Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts was a very shrewd move" by the time Spring Training starts.
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I think they had a similar tone about this time last year. If the Cubs don't spend this offseason, I'm sure they'll be back to "Well actually, signing Jose Iglesias instead of Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts was a very shrewd move" by the time Spring Training starts.
Sadly (but humorously), this is probably true.
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Why Iglesias when Didi Gregory's is available.
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He wants more than a 3 year contract.
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David Stearns stepping down as President of Milwaukee Baseball Operations is likely to hurt Brewers a LOT long term!
Stearns is certainly considered one of the very best baseball execs in the industry!
He's linked to the Mets due to his relationship with Steve Cohen and the fact that he's a New Yorker.
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Jim Bowden has predictions for where the top FA short stops will end up. The good news is that he doesn't think the Cubs will get any of them. (That's a snarky reference to how unreliable I have found Bowden's predictions to have been in the past).
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I think Bowden's contract estimates are too high on Correa and too low on the others.
That said, if each signs for his estimates, I'll take both Turner and Bogaerts, please.
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Any interest in Cavan Biggio as a trade target? Possible 3B candidate?
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It seems like you would be swapping power for defense over Wisdom. Unless he was free I'd pass.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/cubs-promote-dustin-kelly-to-hitting-coach.html
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This is from the Cardinal beat writer. I found his comment about Willson interesting.
5. What should the organization do at catcher?
Mozeliak made it clear that while Andrew Knizner had a decent season and Iván Herrera has potential, the team needs a frontline catcher it can depend on defensively and to handle the staff. Is that Willson Contreras? Not likely. Could a trade for Oakland’s Sean Murphy be in the works? Possibly. How about signing Tucker Barnhart or Christian Vázquez? That’s most likely, but they won’t come cheap.
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From Cubs beat writer:
Cubs Beat
By Jordan Bastian
October 28, 2022
Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. This week, we’ll explore five pressing questions that the team will need to address in the coming months.
5 QUESTIONS FACING THE CUBS
1. Can the Cubs land one of the big-ticket free-agent shortstops?
This will be the biggest question on the collective mind of Cubs fans when Hot Stove season gets underway. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson could all be on the open market this winter, and there is certainly a fit on the North Side.
Chicago has a need for offensive firepower, and manager David Ross prioritizes strong defense. The team has roster flexibility and the financial means. Internally, Nico Hoerner has proven he can handle short, true, but he is an exceptional defender who has also expressed a willingness to move to second base in the name of winning.
This all adds up to the Cubs potentially being a major player in this sector of the open market.
Marcus Stroman
2. How will the rotation be addressed?
The Cubs have Marcus Stroman under contract for 2023, and lefty Justin Steele has earned a rotation spot as well. There is a heap of question marks beyond those two.
Kyle Hendricks will be returning from a right shoulder injury. Keegan Thompson might be best utilized as a multi-inning relief weapon. Drew Smyly and Wade Miley could hit free agency. The good news here is that the Cubs’ in-house depth here appears as solid as it’s been in years. Hayden Wesneski looks like an up-and-coming talent, and there is more coming from the pipeline.
That said, the Cubs could really use some more strength at the top. That could mean finding some smart shorter-term deals in free agency (much like Stroman’s three-year deal last year) or maybe considering an intriguing option like righty Kodai Senga, who is expected to be a free agent out of Japan.
3. Who will play center field in 2023?
There are prospects coming (among them Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario and Brennen Davis), but the Cubs will need to find a way to shore up center next season. Names like Cody Bellinger or Kevin Kiermaier could be interesting targets if they hit the open market. Christopher Morel is an in-house option, but the fact is that the Cubs’ defense in center (MLB-worst -18 defensive runs saved in ’22) must be addressed. Morel looks like a better fit as a super utilityman.
Matt Mervis
4. What’s the plan for first base?
The Cubs entered the offseason without a clear-cut answer for first base. Highly-touted prospect Matt Mervis is rising fast with a powerful bat, but Chicago should have a stopgap plan in place. That is why reports of interest in a veteran free agent like José Abreu have already surfaced. Patrick Wisdom has mostly played third, but he can help at first, too. Alfonso Rivas was given a shot in ’22 but went through plenty of ups and downs. Mervis’ time will come, but pairing him with another player -- on Opening Day or later in the summer -- is probably the smarter play as he breaks into the Majors.
5. Bottom line: Can the Cubs build a realistic contender for ’23?
The 87-win Phillies just reached the World Series. The 93-win Cardinals won the National League Central. There is definitely a path for the Cubs to push for an October berth in ’23. Chicago played at a 90-win pace in the second half. That should be a foundation to build upon, especially with a stronger farm system, vastly improved internal pitching depth and some clear holes in a year when the free-agent market has plenty of possible solutions.
TRIVIA
Willson Contreras was named a finalist for a 2022 Silver Slugger Award among catchers. Who is the only Cubs catcher in team history to receive a Silver Slugger?
A.) Geovany Soto
B.) Rick Wilkins
C.) Jody Davis
D.) Michael Barrett
Willson Contreras
Ian Happ
HAPP A FINALIST FOR GOLD GLOVE
Late in the season, following a game in which Ian Happ made another spectacular sliding catch, the Cubs outfielder was asked if he felt he had turned in the kind of performance that could put him in the conversation for a Gold Glove Award in left field.
“Yeah, I think that the metrics support it,” Happ said. “It'd be awesome. It'd be a really cool honor. I think it's one of those things that you dream of as a kid. And it's a pretty cool trophy.”
It was revealed last week that Happ was indeed one of the finalists for the National League Gold Glove Award in left field, along with Christian Yelich (Brewers) and David Peralta (Rays/D-backs). Let’s take a look at how Happ compares to the other finalists in a few categories:
Happ (1,233 1/3 innings)
Defensive runs saved: +13
Outs above average: +1
UZR/150: +7.9
Assists: 8
Yelich (1,008 2/3 innings)
Defensive runs saved: -2
Outs above average: +5
UZR/150: -3.9
Assists: 2
Peralta (927 innings)
Defensive runs saved: -5
Outs above average: -4
UZR/150: +4.9
Assists: 2
The 2022 Gold Glove winners for both leagues will be announced as part of a special hour-long episode of “Baseball Tonight” at 4 p.m. CT on Tuesday, prior to Game 4 of the World Series. Among outfielders in Cubs history, only Bob Dernier (1984), Andre Dawson (1987-88) and Jason Heyward (2016-17) have taken home Rawlings Gold Glove Awards.
MLB The Show
QUOTABLE
“He took a really remarkable step forward in terms of his consistency on the field. I think his career has been marked, prior to this year, by really high highs and really low lows. And he made a very concerted effort with his swing and his mentality to even that out, and I think he did a fantastic job. And I think that there's no reason that he can't continue to do that.” -- Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, on Happ
Ian Happ
CUBS IN THE AFL
For the latest on the Cubs’ prospects taking part in the Arizona Fall League, be sure to keep reading the work from the MLB Pipeline crew. And give a listen to the Pipeline Podcast. In a recent episode, Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo caught up with Mervis, who has continued to slug his way through AFL pitching. Outfield prospect Owen Caissie has also been on a hot streak, as Sam Dykstra detailed this week.
TRIVIA ANSWER
D.) Michael Barrett
Barrett picked up a Silver Slugger Award for the Cubs in 2005, when he had 16 homers, 32 doubles and an .824 OPS. Soto was the ’08 NL Rookie of the Year and an All-Star, but he did not get the silver bat trophy. Davis was an All-Star in 1984 and ’86 and won a Gold Glove in ’86. Wilkins launched 30 homers in 1993, but Mike Piazza won the award with the Dodgers.
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Why Iglesias when Didi Gregory's is available.
CurtOne is so dumb that when the Cubs started to play night games, he was angry because he couldn't hear their games anymore, since he only had an AM radio.
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https://theathletic.com/3740791/2022/10/28/cubs-fire-hitting-coach/
Athletic article about the Cubs firing hitting coach. Sharma and Mooney offer no hint or insight or even veiled 3rd-hand rumor as to why.
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Brian Smith (Bleacher Nation prospect guy) tweeted it was more fear of losing the replacement than anything the hitting coach did.
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Thanks, blue! That makes really good upbeat sense! I like that explanation.
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I still think that the Cubs are trying to beat Steinbrenner's record of 22 straight years of firing the hitting coach.
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It’s a lot easier than firing the players (or themselves).
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Happ wins his first Gold Glove
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Wow, congrats to him! Not too shabby for someone who wasn’t an outfielder coming up.
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Happ has worked his butt off, made numerous important adjustments and made himself a very fine player!
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https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1589270820844896257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1589270820844896257%7Ctwgr%5E2872501242a4326536a9bf52f62a4d90d69fffa3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1589270820844896257
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According to Passan, the Cubs had a Contreras for Urquidy deal lined up at the deadline, but Astros ownership didn't approve it.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/astros-owner-nixed-willson-contreras-deal-at-trade-deadline.html
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I know that the Cubs had a deal with Houston, with Contreras, that their owner vetoed after previously giving approval. I was not in the know about it being for Urquidy.
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The 40-man roster stands at 45, including the 60-man IL, the restricted list, and Drew Smyly (pending a decision on his mutual option).
Assuming that there will be a minimum of three adds to the roster for Rule 5 protection (Davis, Alcantara, and Brown), there will have to be eight players removed between now and next Tuesday.
Fun!
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The Athletic had a piece up with hypothetical trade offers from 9 teams for Ohtani.
Here’s the hypothetical Cubs offer.
The offer: The Cubs trade LHP Justin Steele, OF Brennen Davis, OF Owen Caissie, SS Cristian Hernandez, LHP Jordan Wicks and RHP Nazier Mulé to the Angels for Shohei Ohtani.
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The 40-man roster stands at 45, including the 60-man IL, the restricted list, and Drew Smyly (pending a decision on his mutual option).
Assuming that there will be a minimum of three adds to the roster for Rule 5 protection (Davis, Alcantara, and Brown), there will have to be eight players removed between now and next Tuesday.
Fun!
Here are the ten that I would cut first, generally in that order, unless the Cubs had information not available to the public, such as the reason why Vizcaino never showed up.
Heyward
Quiroz
Reyes
Bote
Espinoza
Mills
Young
Brault
Rivas
McKinstry
Vizcaino
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Good list. Crook goes. McKinstry definitely stays.
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I went ahead and withdrew that offer on behalf of the Cubs in the user comments…
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Good list. Crook goes. McKinstry definitely stays.
I agree. My list was what I would do, not what I guessed they would do. If they do sign a shortstop, and if Madrigal comes back, there really isn't a place for McKinstry. And I keep hoping that they will find a third baseman somewhere.
Actually, I think that they will have to get rid of more than just eleven. But some may be gotten rid of in trades.
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I went ahead and withdrew that offer on behalf of the Cubs in the user comments…
Evidently, two-way street on both ends:
Sarah Valenzuela
@Sarah_IsabelVee
Shohei Ohtani will not be moved/traded at all this off-season and will start the 2023 season with the Angels, per Perry Minasian.
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Cubs announce their coaching staff for 2023.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/08/chicago-cubs-announce-2023-coaching-staff-including-multiple-hitting-coach-changes/
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-set-2023-coaching-staff
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I would like one of these please.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1589731538689982464
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26 players. 1 manager, 14 coaches. No shortage of support.
I just glanced at 10 other teams, just to see how much range. Cubs are near the larger end, but not the highest. For combined manager+coaches:
Giants: 17
Cubs: 15
Pirates: 14
Astros: 13
Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Rays: 12
Mets: 11
Yankees: 10
Reds: 9
12 seems to be kind of the median. Of the 11 teams, 8 had 12+/- 2 managers+coaches.
The Reds with only 9 would seem to be a small-market team. But small-market Pirates have 14. And big-market Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers are on the smaller end with 10-11-12.
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At some point, don't you have too many voices in the clubhouse? Seriously three hitting coaches telling you what to do? I remember Joe Maddon mentioning after he got fired by the Angels how hitters are dealing with too much information overload.
Two things Manfred could do to improve the quality of play is limit the number of actual coaches and limit the number of pitchers a team can carry.
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M.L.B. regulations allow for one manager and eight coaches in a dugout during games
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Thanks Jeff. I didn't realize there was rule on that.
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At some point, don't you have too many voices in the clubhouse? Seriously three hitting coaches telling you what to do? I remember Joe Maddon mentioning after he got fired by the Angels how hitters are dealing with too much information overload. ...
4 hitting coaches, JR, not 3. :). Yeah, I'd think you'd have to be disciplined about that. Still, I'm OK to trust that they know what they're doing. Several favorite Bible verses speak to the value of many counselors. ("Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed"; "in an abundance of counselors there is safety"; "by wise guidance you can wage your war, and in abundance of counselors there is victory."). Being able to bounce ideas, and bounce analysis together between several smart guys, I think that could be helpful? And the "infrastructure" boss would need to determine who communicates to an individual hitter and that they aren't sending contradictory ideas. I imagine part of it, too, is having individual connections with individual hitters? Maybe Cabreja has linguistic skills, and cultural feel too, to relate well to some of the Latin kids, or something?
But yeah, for sure Kelly would need make sure input is consistent, and that it isn't excessive. Hope it helps some guys to achieve their best!
On the pitching side, they've got at least four guys. Hottovy is head pitching coach. Young is "bullpen coach". Moskos is assistant pitching coach. Hultzen is "pitching strategist". Does that imply that Young focuses on relievers, and Moskos maybe starters, with Hottovy overarching both? I have no idea.
I don't think I've heard as many references to "infrastructure" in all of my life as I have from Cubs within the last two years.
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So, Craig, you want to fire the coaches and Hite a theologian?
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As recently as the '90s, there were only five or six coaches: two on the bases (who might specialize in infield or baserunning or whatever), a hitting instructor, and a pitching coach. There would be a bullpen catcher but he wasn't often considered a coach. It feels like there should be more bullpen catchers; Japanese teams have five or six, so that lots of pitchers can warm up together during practice.
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https://theathletic.com/3774283/2022/11/08/willson-contreras-free-agency-return-cubs/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983https://theathletic.com/3774283/2022/11/08/willson-contreras-free-agency-return-cubs/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Sharma with yet another Contreras article. Seems to support the idea that Contreras for Urquidy had been thought to be a deal and an offer, and nobody else was contending to outbid that. Really strange situation.
Sharma repeats his thing: "It’s not simply about defense and goes well beyond framing; catchers like Gomes get tremendously positive feedback for their work with pitchers in between games and their ability to prepare and game plan for the opponent...."
I still admit some mixed feelings on that. We've got a manager and 14 coaches. I wonder what the pros and cons would be of having a catcher who can hit, run, catch, and throw; who works super hard and is a high energy guy; and hire three or four game-planning coaches to game plan for opponents between games?
Shama writes about what if Contreras accepted the qualifying offer, which Shama considers strongly improbable: "Perhaps Contreras would solely be used as a designated hitter and first baseman. Maybe there’s a scenario where he’s the personal catcher for one starter and two other catchers split the rest of the time. Or perhaps it’s this past season’s role, splitting time with Yan Gomes while using the DH to keep his legs fresh."
So he's so down on Contreras the game-planner that he's barely willing to let him catch at all, so he views Willson having the 2nd-catcher-DH role is only the 3rd unlikeliest option of all.
I love most of Shama's work. But it seems to me his Willson-is-liability-as-catcher take has been relatively extreme? Is it possible that in all sincerity, he's maybe a little bit off on this player? I wonder if he's truly mirroring how the Cubs decision-makers view things? Or whether he's taken some comments from one or two contacts within the organization and perhaps exaggerated them? Perhaps even within the organization there might be a wide range of views, and his source may be on the edge of management views? Who knows. Or maybe he's right on the spot, and rightly or wrongly this is exactly how Ross and Hoyer and Carter perceive things.
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Carter Hawkins implied yesterday that Matt Mervis would get an opportunity to be the 1st baseman in short order.
Now feel free to tell me I misinterpreted his comment.
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https://www.cubsinsider.com/2022/11/09/cubs-gm-carter-hawkins-says-matt-mervis-has-earned-the-opportunity-at-1b/
link includes comments that Dusty mentioned.
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Matt Hickey
@hickeymj
·
1h
We have .
@PJ_Mooney
and .
@sahadevsharma
saying the #Cubs will be deeply involved in the SS market and .
@JesseRogersESPN
saying they won't be
Cool
Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
46m
I said they won’t be giving out 7 plus years. If it’s more manageable — like 5 years or less — then yes.
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Rogers and Sharma/Mooney not much different from one another.
Rogers says Cubs won’t go 7+ and Sharma/Mooney say Cubs unlikely to go 8+ on Correa.
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I hope that is true. I have had my fill of 7 and 8 year contracts.
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https://theathletic.com/3774283/2022/11/08/willson-contreras-free-agency-return-cubs/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983https://theathletic.com/3774283/2022/11/08/willson-contreras-free-agency-return-cubs/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Sharma with yet another Contreras article. Seems to support the idea that Contreras for Urquidy had been thought to be a deal and an offer, and nobody else was contending to outbid that. Really strange situation.
Sharma repeats his thing: "It’s not simply about defense and goes well beyond framing; catchers like Gomes get tremendously positive feedback for their work with pitchers in between games and their ability to prepare and game plan for the opponent...."
I still admit some mixed feelings on that. We've got a manager and 14 coaches. I wonder what the pros and cons would be of having a catcher who can hit, run, catch, and throw; who works super hard and is a high energy guy; and hire three or four game-planning coaches to game plan for opponents between games?
Shama writes about what if Contreras accepted the qualifying offer, which Shama considers strongly improbable: "Perhaps Contreras would solely be used as a designated hitter and first baseman. Maybe there’s a scenario where he’s the personal catcher for one starter and two other catchers split the rest of the time. Or perhaps it’s this past season’s role, splitting time with Yan Gomes while using the DH to keep his legs fresh."
So he's so down on Contreras the game-planner that he's barely willing to let him catch at all, so he views Willson having the 2nd-catcher-DH role is only the 3rd unlikeliest option of all.
I love most of Shama's work. But it seems to me his Willson-is-liability-as-catcher take has been relatively extreme? Is it possible that in all sincerity, he's maybe a little bit off on this player? I wonder if he's truly mirroring how the Cubs decision-makers view things? Or whether he's taken some comments from one or two contacts within the organization and perhaps exaggerated them? Perhaps even within the organization there might be a wide range of views, and his source may be on the edge of management views? Who knows. Or maybe he's right on the spot, and rightly or wrongly this is exactly how Ross and Hoyer and Carter perceive things.
Not just the Cubs but how most of baseball seems to perceive them too, based on the evidence.
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I hope that is true. I have had my fill of 7 and 8 year contracts.
Os as that actually means, "I have no interest in signing elite free agents".
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NSBB's "Named After Maddux", Greg Zumach, founder of the websites ivyfutures.com and northsidebound.com has an idea on how to address CF.
https://twitter.com/IvyFutures/status/1588232145386016769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1588232147680231426%7Ctwgr%5Ea0a6e6a0c3245ca0e81eba85be985b57ccbc3387%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2Fcubs%2F2022%2F11%2F08%2Fgm-meetings-rumors-and-thoughts-rizzo-getting-the-qo-dbacks-trade-target-for-cubs-eflin-interesting-jays-and-senga-options-decisions-more%2F
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I wouldnt give Correa 8+.
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Os as that actually means, "I have no interest in signing elite free agents".
Or possibly "Our owners have no interest in behaving like they own one of the highest valued teams in professional sports."
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Some long-term contracts are really helpful. At least in decades past. Michael Jordan signed a long-term deal; having him locked in with the Bulls for years and years was helpful. Ryne Sandberg signed a super long-term deal with the Cubs, and he was good for most of it, and underpaid for most of it. Having a good, asset player locked in for years, and having the certainty of both the contract and the player, there can be value in that.
It obviously helps if the player doesn't hit like a Heyward, though. Not trusting your scouting makes it hard to make a commitment, of course.
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NSBB's "Named After Maddux", Greg Zumach, founder of the websites ivyfutures.com and northsidebound.com has an idea on how to address CF.
https://twitter.com/IvyFutures/status/1588232145386016769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1588232147680231426%7Ctwgr%5Ea0a6e6a0c3245ca0e81eba85be985b57ccbc3387%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2Fcubs%2F2022%2F11%2F08%2Fgm-meetings-rumors-and-thoughts-rizzo-getting-the-qo-dbacks-trade-target-for-cubs-eflin-interesting-jays-and-senga-options-decisions-more%2F
Jeff, how much do you think a guy like that would cost? In terms of our pitching prospects, for a one-for-one trade, who would you offer and how much would it take? Who says no?
*Alzolay. AZ says no?
*Wicks. Cubs and Jeff say no?
*Luis Devers?
*Kohl Franklin?
*Palencia?
*Porter Hodge?
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Craig, I think in reality the Diamondbacks will want power relievers, but your exercise is useful and I'll play.
If my scouts tell me that Fletcher projects substantially in line with his minor league performance, I'd be happy offer a pitcher in the Kilian, Herz, and Devers tier. Not Wicks for sure.
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Or possibly "Our owners have no interest in behaving like they own one of the highest valued teams in professional sports."
It’s the same old song, and it should be pretty clear this is where we were headed since “intelligent spending”. They’re interested in appearing to have been finalists without actually getting close to having to spend the money. But if you sign guys like Kluber and Abreu you make the case to the fans that you’re a big market team because hey, everyone has heard of those guys, right?
They may surprise the world and actually sign an elite FA this offseason, but there’s no reason to expect that based on past history. They are who they have been until they prove they aren’t.
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Os as that actually means, "I have no interest in signing elite free agents".
No. It actually means that they have no interest in signing elete free agents for 8 years.
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I don’t care if the Cubs give long contracts to good players.
Hard pass on Corey Kluber. Quit going after contact managers.
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Call me a racist if you want but Senga's coming over here with arm issues.
Pass...
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/what-mlb-sources-expect-cubs-free-agency-roster-moves
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/09/the-chicago-cubs-may-try-to-lock-down-jose-abreu-quickly-in-free-agency/
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I don’t care if the Cubs give long contracts to good players.
Hard pass on Corey Kluber. Quit going after contact managers.
Cheer up, Martin Perez is now apparently on their radar. Along with Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, according to Booster Brett.
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Bell and Mancini don't bother me. I'd much rather have Kluber than Perez, but I'd probably like putting some minor league free agents in the rotation before either of them.
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Cheer up, Martin Perez is now apparently on their radar. Along with Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, according to Booster Brett.
Perez is getting a QO from Texas, so he’s probably off their radar now.
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Cubs have seven players on the 60-day IL. All seven must be reinstated to the 40-man roster or otherwise disposed of by 4:00 p.m. Central today. There are four open spots on the 40-man roster.
I presume, but don't know for certain, that they also have to do something with Vizcaino on the restricted list.
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Josh Bell might actually not be a bad fit. He's a Boras client, though, so I can't imagine we'd like the contract he'd eventually sign.
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Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
The Cubs’ 40-man roster is at 36 players after a series of moves in which Franmil Reyes, David Bote, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck, Steven Brault, Narciso Crook and Anderson Espinoza cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A Iowa.
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Josh Bell might actually not be a bad fit. He's a Boras client, though, so I can't imagine we'd like the contract he'd eventually sign.
You’d have to have some confidence his absolute putridity in SD was a mirage. Hard to get too excited about another RH-hitting 1B with a dodgy glove, but he is 5 years younger than Abreu if nothing else.
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Bell is a switch hitter.
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You’d have to have some confidence his absolute putridity in SD was a mirage. Hard to get too excited about another RH-hitting 1B with a dodgy glove, but he is 5 years younger than Abreu if nothing else.
I am more inclined to buy into his larger sample size prior to San Diego. I think he is a nice player.
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Bell is a switch hitter.
LOL, I totally forgot.
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https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/story/top-japanese-outfielder-could-be-targeted-by-cubs-20013
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Finally the rumor wheel is turning to Swanson, where it always had to end up. Probably the most realistic non-dumpster dive for a team in our lane. Given that the other top SS are almost assuredly a pipe dream I'd be thrilled with Swanson on a 5 or 6 year deal.
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Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
The Cubs’ 40-man roster is at 36 players after a series of moves in which Franmil Reyes, David Bote, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck, Steven Brault, Narciso Crook and Anderson Espinoza cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A Iowa.
Reyes, Mills, Wieck, Breault, Crook, and Espinoza elected free agency.
Bote did not, given his $4, $5.5, for the next two years, and $1-buyout for year 3.
I'd be interested in re-signing Breault to a non-roster deal. Cubs are thin on LHP, and I suspect that *IF* healthy that his best is still ahead of him.
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I hope they try to do the same thing with Wieck.
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https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/story/top-japanese-outfielder-could-be-targeted-by-cubs-20013
What I gather from this article is........The Cubs MAY target Yoshido. The Cubs may NOT target Yoshido.
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The article was pure speculation, and not very well reasoned. Merely click bait.
Yoshido is going to be looking for a long term contract, and even if for some reason they do not extend Happ, they will not be looking for a long term free agent corner outfielder, in my opinion.
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What I gather from this article is........The Cubs MAY target Yoshido. The Cubs may NOT target Yoshido.
That's more than I got out of it. I'm waiting for Dusty to tell us that Yoshido is seriously injured.
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I normally have no issue with Japanese position players other than the fact that their power doesnt live up to the hype.
My issue is with the pitchers who come over here after they've been rode like a rented mule.
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Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young were outrighted to Iowa today.
New number is 34…
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I normally have no issue with Japanese position players other than the fact that their power doesnt live up to the hype.
My issue is with the pitchers who come over here after they've been rode like a rented mule.
Corey is an antimuleite.
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Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young were outrighted to Iowa today.
New number is 34…
Cubs haven’t formally made a move with Heyward yet, so roster is at 35, according to AZ Phil.
Vizcaino still on roster too.
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Still lots of relatively easy moves to make.
I'd hate to get too daring and expose some pitching prospect that blossoms, in order to protect McKinstry or Uelman or Rucker or whomever.
I wonder too how eager some of those fringy guys are to have their feelings hurt and to look elsewhere. For example, suppose a guy like McKinstry gets derostered, to make room for Devers or Jensen or Franklin or something like that. Suppose you tell him, "Dude, we'd like to have you come back, we'll have a bundle of 60-man roster spots that will open, and we still think you've got a really fair chance to win a big-league spot in camp". Would a guy like that be ticked off that he got derostered, and say no way I'm signing a non-roster deal? Or would he say, "yeah, I get that. And I see the opportunity here. Yes, I think this will be a good opportunity place for me, where do I sign?"
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Craig, before that conversation takes place, there's the risk of a player being chosen on a waiver claim.
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Yeah, of course.
If they deroster all nine of Rivas, McKinstry, Ortega, Uelman, Rucker, Roberts, Martinez, Marquez, Leiter, there's a decent chance that a couple of those guys might get claimed, at least for a few weeks.
But I'm guessing a lot of those guys won't get claimed? Everybody else has their own pitch labs and their own prospects with some ceiling that they want to protect too, I think. So *IF* you take the risk and expose McKinstry or Uelman or whomever, and *if* they can claimed, that's kinda the way it goes. If you have to get by and need to replace a McKinstry, that's not the end of the world and isn't the most difficult task to accomplish.
I guess I was just wondering whether a guy who goes unclaimed would be MORE likely to stick with an organization that de-rostered him, but where he knows they'll have a scad of 60-man spots opening up in spring; or whether he'd be LESS likely to stay?
Of the guys from yesterday, Breault is one I'd like to bring back on a non-roster deal. We're not deep in lefties.
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Wouldn’t risk losing a younger player with potential to roster McKinstry. He’s been bad at every turn and even with his decent last month was bad for us. Offensive peripherals are bad, topline numbers are bad. If someone claims him you can live with that.
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Deeg, it's less about McKinstry himself than it is that someone is going to be a backup infielder on the 26-man roster. If you lose McKinstry, that's fine, but you're going to need that 40-man roster spot for the backup infielder.
Always remember that the 26-man roster has to be filled out with somebody and that a maximum of 14 players can be on optional assignment at any one time.
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Deeg, it's less about McKinstry himself than it is that someone is going to be a backup infielder on the 26-man roster. If you lose McKinstry, that's fine, but you're going to need that 40-man roster spot for the backup infielder.
Always remember that the 26-man roster has to be filled out with somebody and that a maximum of 14 players can be on optional assignment at any one time.
I get that Jeff, but I think we can do better. Hoerner’s ability to play either middle IF position means a lot, especially if we add a true SS and keep Madrigal. Morel can play all across the infield at least adequately, if not well. I don’t think McKinstry is worthy of either a 40 and 26-man roster spot. If no one grabs him (which I think is likely) you stash him at Iowa and re-add him later if he’s needed.
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I agree. The Cubs will sign at least one middle infielder this winter, even if it isn't one of the top tier free agents, and they also have Bote stashed in Iowa who can be an adequate fill in when injury strikes. If there is someone that they want to keep away from the draft, McKinstry is probably expendable.
I think the same applies to Rivas and Rucker. Both can be useful pieces if kept, but can fairly easily be replaced if they want to protect someone they like better.
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My hunch is that McKinstry will stay on the 40 man.
A few things about him are interesting. He has hit at AAA. Has not hit for average in majors but his iso is .176. His BA is hurt by an unusually low .264 BABIP. He’s a solid defender at 2B and 3B. And, of course he’s a lefty bat.
Does not have a ton of PAs in majors, so would not be so sure he won’t hit enough to be a worthy role player, especially given his AAA performance.
Guessing that he stays.
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Agree with deeg and Dave. With Madrigal and Morel give two backup infielders. Bote will hang out at Iowa, Strumpf will be there, and Vasquez if you want a defensive guy. So even if McKinstry elects to sign with somebody else after he's hypothetically de-rostered, it won't change the Cubs future much if they call up Bote or Strump instead of McKinstry, if some need arises?
26-man spots later may not mean as much as 40-man spots now? So if you want to give McKinstry a 26-man spot next April, the 60-day DL guys will provide some spots.
Probably a guy like Devers or Franklin or Jensen will never be very good. But man, suppose Devers comes back with an extra 3mph next summer, and ends up giving some team other than the Cubs 6 good seasons. It would kinda kill me to think we gave him up because we thought the difference between McKinstry versus Bote was worth the risk...
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The point that Devers is a more valuable asset than McKinstry is fine and I agree.
But adding minor leaguers to the 40-man roster who have zero chance to play in the majors during the upcoming season has a downside. The totality of the "Iowa shuttle" plus any such players cannot at any time exceed (14 minus the number of players on a non-60-day IL).
All I'm saying is, when the Cubs don't roster Jensen, Devers, and Franklin, it won't be because they value McKinstry and Uelmen more.
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Sources: #Cubs among most active teams in the shortstop market during early days of free agency. They’ve been in touch with the agents for Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson. @MLBNetwork @MLB--Morosi
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Craig, I wonder if the decision whether to roster Devers, Franklin et al is linked more to the pitchers on the margin—Rucker, Leiter, Vizcaino, Uelmen—than to McKinstry. We’ll see soon enough.
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Jeff, if an options guy misses an entire season to injury, the team doesn't get an extra option year, does it? Or yes they do?
Canario and Amaya come to my mind, and Brailyn too. All face their final options year. Brailyn and Canario will presumably miss most or all of their final options year. All three of those guys would super benefit from developmental AB's and innings. Cubs might be in a tough spot entering 2024, particularly with Brailyn and Canario. Both might have excellent ceilings and be significant contributors for 6 club-controlled years of Cub success; but could you put either of those on the big-league roster in April 2024 if they don't play until late August, or whatever? Very awkward.
This can be One of the tangental downside to rostering higher-ceiling zero-ready guys way before they are big-league ready. If injury then comes and costs them a hunk of their options years, you may run out of options years before they can develop (or re-develop), and before you can know if they're big-league worthy or not.
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Craig, Canario and Marquez will be optionable in 2024, according to Arizona Phil.
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Thanks, Jeff, great news! Phil knows the rules better than Fangraphs, I'm sure. That helps a lot.
I'd just used the FanGraphs list.
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This whole business about not wanting to do 7 and 8 year deals, in addition to meaning you have no chance to sign one of the elite FAs, doesn't even really make sense financially.
Say you're willing to go 5 or 6 years on Bogaerts, but not willing to go 7-8 for Correa. You're paying them until the same age, and the extra two years of Correa are in his prime. Why is the Bogaerts deal better financially?
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/12/jose-abreu-is-a-priority-for-the-cubs-but-its-not-a-slam-dunk-that-they-get-him/
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This whole business about not wanting to do 7 and 8 year deals, in addition to meaning you have no chance to sign one of the elite FAs, doesn't even really make sense financially.
Say you're willing to go 5 or 6 years on Bogaerts, but not willing to go 7-8 for Correa. You're paying them until the same age, and the extra two years of Correa are in his prime. Why is the Bogaerts deal better financially?
For several reasons.
First, as we found out from the Heyward deal, when it goes wrong, it hurts you what seems like forever.
Second, as many articles have attested, when you sign someone to an 8 year deal, you usually only get your value back in the first three or four years, and expect to lose value after that.
Third, deals that long almost always have opt out clauses, which causes you to lose them if they do well, and pay for years if they do badly. See # 1.
Fourth, The addition of one shortstop, no matter how good, is not going to make the Cubs a top tier team in the next two years. The top shortstop will stop being worth the money just as you need him most.
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For several reasons.
First, as we found out from the Heyward deal, when it goes wrong, it hurts you what seems like forever.
Second, as many articles have attested, when you sign someone to an 8 year deal, you usually only get your value back in the first three or four years, and expect to lose value after that.
Third, deals that long almost always have opt out clauses, which causes you to lose them if they do well, and pay for years if they do badly. See # 1.
Fourth, The addition of one shortstop, no matter how good, is not going to make the Cubs a top tier team in the next two years. The top shortstop will stop being worth the money just as you need him most.
So you'd rather pay the same AAV for a guy from 30-35 than 28-35 because... Well, why exactly? He's not good enough to help you win in the first place? You don't care about the first two years because you're not going to win anyway?
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No. My goal is to have a dynasty that lasts more than a decade. Which means that the long run view is more important than the short run view when building such a dynasty. Signing a player to a contract that can be a millstone around their neck for years is a foolish plan. And with the randomness of baseball, the longer the contract, the greater the liklihood of that happening.
In the specific situation you mention, the eight years for Correa create more risk of injury or age-decline than does a 6 year contract for Bogaerts.
The average life expectancy for a man in the United States is currently about 76 years. However, I am 80 years old, and MY life expectancy is 89.1 years. The same applies to baseball life. A player at age 30 has a higher likelihood of playing well at 36 than does a similar player at age 28. That is the reason why it might make sense to sign 36 year old Abreu for two years rather than a similar 30 year old player for 8 years.
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Celine is an age/health based risk. Boegarts 5-6 years would carry the same risk as Correra’s 7-8. Correra could give you more good years than Boegarts.
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Each player is strong in different areas. Which skillsets age the best?
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Sharma is reporting Hendricks is going to do a Driveline-like program to up his velocity.
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If he can get his fastball up over 100 without losing command, it might improve his results substantially.
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Sharma is reporting Hendricks is going to do a Driveline-like program to up his velocity.
That is fascinating, and weird. Three thoughts:
1. Health: Health is what Hoyer had emphasized when discussing his chances. I'd guess his arm-health must be fine if he's going to a Driveline to boost velocity?
2. Pitch-lab: Seems curious that Hendricks thinks his career and fastball are better optimized in some Driveline place with Driveline coaches, rather than by Breslow and Hottovy and their hand-picked coaches in what I assume would be a super-funded state-of-the-art Cubs pitch-lab. Shouldn't the cubs have top-end people and facilities for this? I thought he married a Chicago girl; does he have a home in chicago? Or does he live in California, so the quality of the Driveline isn't as important as proximity to home?
3. Cool: I think it's interesting that he thinks a velocity-boost is worth pursuing, and that there might be something in there. Would be fun if he could improve somehow, and become variably good again, rather than being the liability he's been for the last couple of years.
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That is fascinating, and weird. Three thoughts:
1. Health: Health is what Hoyer had emphasized when discussing his chances. I'd guess his arm-health must be fine if he's going to a Driveline to boost velocity?
2. Pitch-lab: Seems curious that Hendricks thinks his career and fastball are better optimized in some Driveline place with Driveline coaches, rather than by Breslow and Hottovy and their hand-picked coaches in what I assume would be a super-funded state-of-the-art Cubs pitch-lab. Shouldn't the cubs have top-end people and facilities for this? I thought he married a Chicago girl; does he have a home in chicago? Or does he live in California, so the quality of the Driveline isn't as important as proximity to home?
3. Cool: I think it's interesting that he thinks a velocity-boost is worth pursuing, and that there might be something in there. Would be fun if he could improve somehow, and become variably good again, rather than being the liability he's been for the last couple of years.
1) They pushed things back to make sure he’s 100%
2) The Cubs hired a Driveline guy I think in the last couple of years. I think this is a Cubs program vs outside program. The Cubs have been adding velocity to minor leaguers pretty consistently now.
3) I doubt he’s going to jump 90+, but if the can get him back to 88-89 it would be huge. That might be too big of an ask though.
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Each player is strong in different areas. Which skillsets age the best?
A very pertinent question. I’d worry the most about Turner, TBH. Not only is his baserunning a big part of his value but a lot of his SLG is speed-driven.
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I'd take Turner over any of them.
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Here's a pertinent part of The Athletic article by Mooney and Sharma about why Hendricks is working on velo:
"In those years (2018 and 2019 - great years for Hendricks), Hendricks averaged around 86.6 mph on his sinker, barely above the 86.5 mph registered this past season. Since then, however, his changeup has gotten firmer and the average gap between the sinker and the changeup has gone from around 8 mph to 6.5. That may seem minimal, but for a pitcher with very little margin for error, it can be disastrous."
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The last reports I have heard were that Hendricks has not yet begun pitching, so perhaps the work he is doing is more along the lines of building up his core than his arm strength.
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For me, the years to look at closely with Hendricks are 2019 compared to 2021.
2019 was his most recent quality full season. ERA was 3.46 (and exactly his career ERA too). Unlike all of his other good seasons (with exception of 2015)—featured by Hendrick’s ERA being dramatically better than his FIP—his 2019 FIP (3.61) is close to his ERA. So, think 2019 is a good representation of “good” Hendricks.
2020 was the shortened Covid season and 2022 was also a shortened season for Hendricks and one where he was probably pitching hurt when he was pitching, at least part of that season.
So, 2021 is a good representation of “bad” Hendricks. In 2021, he had a 4.77 ERA and similar FIP (4.89).
Thing is that Hendricks sinker and 4-seam velocity was actually slightly HIGHER in the bad Hendricks season than the good Hendricks season: 2021: sinker at 87.3, 4-seamer also at 87.3. 2019: sinker at 86.7 and 4-seamer at 87.2.
So, beats me how loss of velocity explains anything.
Sharma notes that change-up is faster in 2021 than 2019 (80.0 to 78.6), which is true, and manifests as less of a difference between the change and harder stuff. This is probably a factor of sorts but my view is that this is small potatoes compared to loss of command overall.
Very hard to see command in the Statcast data, so think Sharma just ignored that. It has strike zone location charts of base hits but where Hendricks is getting hurt comparing 2019 to 2021 is slugging. His iso was .148 in 2019 but zoomed to .203 in 2021, with slugging going from .397 to .481. Don’t see how can do an analysis of Hendricks without delving into pitch location.
Also, His 4-seam slugging went from .302 to .642 (!!) and curveball slugging from .239 to .455. So, his 3rd and 4th best pitches have gone from useful to poor. Think that’s something to ponder.
For me, it’s command, command, command with Hendricks. Sure, even a guy throwing 96 can be helped going up to 99, so ditto for Hendricks if he can go up a tick or two. But, he has to put the ball where he wants much more consistently to be the “good” Hendricks. Think that is way more important than a slight improvement in velocity or a bit better separation between change-up and harder stuff.
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Thanks for those thoughts, reb. I think you're pretty on point, that it's been more about location of stuff rather than movement/velocity/shape.
I do wonder, though as regards the change? Seemed like in Hendricks prime, his change was a killer pitch, it was really, really good. As you've noted, reb, a pitcher really likes to have a signature, plus, killer pitch. What I'm wondering, is whether Hendricks's change hasn't been as much of a killer in the recent bad years? Is there a way to evaluate and quantify that? If so I'm not sure why, or how to remediate.
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Thanks for those thoughts, reb. I think you're pretty on point, that it's been more about location of stuff rather than movement/velocity/shape.
I do wonder, though as regards the change? Seemed like in Hendricks prime, his change was a killer pitch, it was really, really good. As you've noted, reb, a pitcher really likes to have a signature, plus, killer pitch. What I'm wondering, is whether Hendricks's change hasn't been as much of a killer in the recent bad years? Is there a way to evaluate and quantify that? If so I'm not sure why, or how to remediate.
There’s a Runs Above Average stat which measures pitch value, and fwiw it confirms the change was Hendricks’ best pitch during his best seasons, and has been really bad the last two. But all of his pitches have graded out badly the last two seasons. He was good in the COVID season throwing roughly the same velocity on his pitches as he did in 21-22, with very different results.
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Linked below is Hendricks’ Statcast page.
As we can see, 2018 was the most recent season when Hendricks’ change was a “killer” pitch. In 2019–his most recent good full season—it was a good pitch, but no longer elite. But, he still had a nice 2019 season with his repertoire of four pitches.
Don’t think it is now realistic that Hendricks will get back an elite change-up. What he needs is better command of his overall repertoire.
As I noted earlier, his curve—which we don’t think much about—has been ineffective during his decline. Ditto for the 4-seamer. This has hurt him quite a bit.
I think this is all a by-product of a decline in command that is impacting more than one pitch and more than the Sharma theory that it is the velocity difference between sinker and change.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-hendricks-543294?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
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Thanks for data on Hendricks change.
1. Totally agree, reb, that command is huge and is the biggest issue. Bigger than tweaking the velocity of his fastball or change. It's a given that his command needs to get better or he's not going to be useful. Hendricks has made more mistakes in recent years, and his mistakes are pretty mashable.
2. But assuming his command did improve significantly... The idea I was exploring is whether re-optimizing the change should be the priority in terms of stuff and pitch shape? If he had one pitch that he could improve stuff-wise, might that not best be his change, the pitch that used to make him excellent?
3. Reb, *IF* it's a given that his best pitch can never get back to being elite, I wonder how realistic it is that he can ever get back to being above average again? *IF* we presume that the plus pitch that made him good will never be plus again, that makes me pretty cautious about what his upside might be? So, I guess I'm maybe hoping that there is still quite a bit of upside-potential to his change, and that *if* he can hypothetically recover *both* overall command AND a really plus change, that he might still have a shot to be an asset rotation guy, one that could still help a playoff contender? Rather than being a liability guy that only a tanking team wants in its rotation?
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One more post re Hendricks and the Sharma/Mooney article (link https://theathletic.com/3862765/2022/11/13/cubs-kyle-hendricks-offseason/
"The Cubs understand that relying on Hendricks to be “The Professor” again next season would be foolish. They’re also not ruling out a return to the form that once made him one of the game’s most reliable pitchers. There’s an acceptance that he’s a wild card. They’re looking at what he could give them — potentially a lot or a little — as a bonus."
Assuming Mooney/Sharma are correct in capturing the Cubs view, this seems wise. At the same time, it's also a very difficult position to be in? The last two seasons, they intended to compete as best they could with the guys they added, some of whom were "wildcards", and they ended up being deep in the standings by July.
Part of that being awful in the front half was sorting through has-been vets, and losing a bunch of games before realizing the wildcards weren't going to work.
*2021, they thought Arrieta might be a veteran who could give them something. It took them a while to realize the answer. Trevor Williams, Alec Mills, Zach Davies, they probably all qualified under the "wild-card" status... Bote and Sogaard too. While determining the wild cards weren't working you've already lost the season.
*In 2022, Simmons and Villar and Heyward probably all qualified as wildcards, "can't-count-on-them-but-maybe-they'll-be-productive?" guys. Eventually they pulled the plug, but it took a while.
So, I'm thinking this will be challenging with Hendricks. Given the respect and tenure that he's earned, I can imagine them giving him a pretty extended chance if he's supposedly healthy. Camp and exhibition-game stats are short and few and not trusted. If he gets through camp with a 4.8 ERA in his 14 innings, are they going to take his job away? If it's May 10 and he's made 5 starts at 4.8-ERA, but he then has one 5-inning-1-run start where he looks a little sharper, will that then guarantee him another 3-4 starts?
I guess I'm kinda thinking that Ross and Hottovy are going to be in a tough spot, and there may be some temptation to be kinda slow to pull the plug, if it hypothetically turns out that he's mediocre but not horrific.
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Assuming that Hendricks appears to be healthy thru spring training, guessing he’ll get 10-12 starts in the season to show what he can do before any big changes to his status, with the caveat that he’s not uncompetitive out there.
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Eno Sarris has a command+ stat, but I can't find the database for it. Hendricks velocity dropped in 2017 and his peripherals started to go down then. My guess is his command propably worsened last year and that is when things really went side wise. His margin of error is just very small. Sharma talked about his delive being off which can affect command and velocity.
The last reports I have heard were that Hendricks has not yet begun pitching, so perhaps the work he is doing is more along the lines of building up his core than his arm strength.
He's not expected to start throwing until Dec.
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Assuming that Hendricks appears to be healthy thru spring training, guessing he’ll get 10-12 starts in the season to show what he can do before any big changes to his status, with the caveat that he’s not uncompetitive out there.
Yes.
Hopefully this will be a dumb hypothetical, and 12 starts in he'll be sitting at 3.2 ERA and they're winning lots of his starts and they're up 5 games on St. Louis.
But I can also envision that he's 12 starts in with a 5.0 ERA, with the team having lost 8 of those 12 starts. (Cubs offense in April Wrigley doesn't usually start fast....). If you end the season 2 games behind the Cardinals, you might wish you had those 12 starts back. Maybe 2-4 extra wins in April and May would have won you the division?
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/cubs-release-jason-heyward.html
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If the Cubs add one new starter to the roster, either through free agency or trade, and if they have no unforseen injuries, they will have the following probable rotation to begin the season;
New person (Senga? Rodon? Other?
Stroman
Steele
Wesneski
Hendricks
If Hendricks should falter, he can be replaced by any of several already on the roster;
Alzolay
Thompson
Sampson
Assad
I don't think that Hendricks is essential to the Cubs success in the upcoming year, although if he is really good he will help, and if he is really bad he will hurt a little.
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Expect them to add two new starters. If Hendricks is healthy, Wesneski will be in the bullpen or at Iowa.
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Smyly?
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Smyly?
He opted out. Could come back on some sort of 2-year deal but you certainly can’t assume it.
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Agree. Hoyer wants two. Smyly being the probable second guy, but no guarantee obviously. Might even take another shot at Miley, if Smyly chooses elsewhere.
Almost no chance that Hoyer is planning a rotation assuming BOTH Hendricks and Wesneski in it.
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Expect them to add two new starters. If Hendricks is healthy, Wesneski will be in the bullpen or at Iowa.
I've mentioned this before, but I think the prospect of having a decent rotation, while still having Keegan, Wesneski, and Alzolay all pitching in relief, is pretty intriguing. I don't expect any of Steele, Hendricks, Stroman, or Smily to be deep-innings starters. But *IF* you hypothetically had three young good-stuff guys capable of picking up multi-inning relief tasks, I think that could be really interesting, and perhaps have a pitching layout that I've never seen.
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I would go one step further. I would like to see a five man starter rotation and a four man piggyback rotation.
The starter would go 5, or max 6 innings, and the piggyback would come in for 3 or 4 innings (obviously any or all could be taken out early if ineffective on any given day. the last four would serve as long relief, set up men or closer.
It would have been easier if there were still 14 relievers allowed, but I would like to see someone try it.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/cubs-nearing-deal-to-acquire-miles-mastrobuoni.html
He's a rostered guy.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/cubs-nearing-deal-to-acquire-miles-mastrobuoni.html
He's a rostered guy.
Seriously? Can't imagine they would consider him worthy of a 40-man spot ahead of some of the names they have.
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$40 guaranteed over two years for Rizzo. That's a data point for Abreu.
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Seriously? Can't imagine they would consider him worthy of a 40-man spot ahead of some of the names they have.
I guess I'm a broken record about this, but you have to minimize 40-man guys that won't contribute to the team in the upcoming year. Kohl Franklin is more valuable than this guy? Largely irrelevant.
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I guess I'm a broken record about this, but you have to minimize 40-man guys that won't contribute to the team in the upcoming year. Kohl Franklin is more valuable than this guy? Largely irrelevant.
I'm not sure that even applies here to a 27 year-old who's barely had a sip of coffee in the majors. Maybe their scouts love him or something.
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Return is Alfredo Zarraga. Don't love that personally, as he sounds like a guy with decent upside.
The end for McKinstry?
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FWIW (not much), Gordon Wittenmyer is predicting the Cubs will sign Carlos Carrera and Cody Berringer, but not Koudai Senga. Surprising prediction from him on Correa, as cynical as he normally is about the Cubs.
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/mlb-free-agency-predictions-jose-abreu-willson-contreras-more?fbclid=IwAR0woimCBqpf_U3qF13GkkF_-VwJ5wNsB3i5056rCsc2JlNI1tsySlseo6k
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Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Mastrobuoni, 27, has three Minor League option years remaining. Across Aug/Sep before being promoted to MLB, the lefty-hitting utility man hit .349 (1.021 OPS) with 8 HR, 11 2B, 7 SB, 34 R and nearly as many BB (20) as K (26) in 38 games (170 PA).
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He had a HR spike in ‘22, for whatever reason…maybe the Cubs noticed something?
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Alcantara, Brown, Davis, and Jensen rostered.
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That product tion will almost replace the Tank
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Jensen, interesting that they still protected him.
I can imagine he might have been a guy some teams might have been interested. Throws hard; 1st round pick; has already spent a year in AA so he's not far distant. Cubs have only used him in rotation, so I'd guess other teams might think that switching him to relief might help him click. And I assume teams with confidence in their development might figure they might untap some potential that the Cubs were never able to or were kinda slow to make click.
Will be interesting to see if and who we lose.
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https://theathletic.com/3901738/2022/11/15/cubs-willson-contreras-prospects/
Contreras declines. A few comments about the four prospects. Not sure if they are new, fresh comments, or ones that Mooney and Sharma pulled out of file from weeks ago.
Jensen is kind of a puzzle for me. Pre-2020, they were talking about changing many of his pitches, that was pre-Covid. Fall camp in 2020, and spring camp 2021, they had opportunity to revise and lock in those revisions. They had 2021 to further work on things, and make tweaks. They had 21-22 off-season to further review his problems and how to remediate them. If his arm-stroke was problematic, I wonder why did it take them from 2019 to June 2022 to notice? Just seems weird to me. And now again, they're again in invent-new-pitches-for-Jensen mode? I admit it kinda gives me some Maples vibes: always revising, never settling; and a wild fastball that doesn't tweak/revise into control.
Hopefully it all clicks, and he emerges as a value guy after all.
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Before the Cubs added the four prospects to the 40-man, Cubs official twitter release said:
“Chicago Cubs
@Cubs
Official
The #Cubs today acquired INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni from the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league RHP Alfredo Zárraga.
The 40-man roster stands at 34 players.”
All the Cubs beat writers—consistent with the above—now say roster is at 38.
But, if you count up the roster on Cubs.com, it adds up to 39, not 38. So, AZ Phil has roster at 39.
Guessing this has something to do with Vizcaino. He’s still listed on Cubs.com 40-man and only transaction listed as to Vizcaino is that he was activated in October.
Other than that, beats me why Cubs are saying 38 and the math adds up to 39.
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Remaining players eligible for arbitration:
Happ
Heuer
Hoerner
Madrigal
Ortega
Wick
Any non-tenders in the bunch?
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Before the Cubs added the four prospects to the 40-man, Cubs official twitter release said:
“Chicago Cubs
@Cubs
Official
The #Cubs today acquired INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni from the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league RHP Alfredo Zárraga.
The 40-man roster stands at 34 players.”
All the Cubs beat writers—consistent with the above—now say roster is at 38.
But, if you count up the roster on Cubs.com, it adds up to 39, not 38. So, AZ Phil has roster at 39.
Guessing this has something to do with Vizcaino. He’s still listed on Cubs.com 40-man and only transaction listed as to Vizcaino is that he was activated in October.
Other than that, beats me why Cubs are saying 38 and the math adds up to 39.
Come on. You can not hold reporters to the same math standard as you would a college professor.
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Remaining players eligible for arbitration:
Happ
Heuer
Hoerner
Madrigal
Ortega
Wick
Any non-tenders in the bunch?
I doubt that it will happen, but I would non-tender both Ortega and Wick. For the money, we could do better on the open market, and neither have high ceilings.
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Mariners traded for Teoscar Hernandez. So they have Julio in CF, Teoscar in RF and are looking to updrade LF. Would anybody do Happ for Kelenic
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Would anybody do Happ for Kelenic?
If it happened, I'd support it, but I wouldn't hold out any great hopes for Kelenic turning into more than a bit piece on TNGCT. He may be young, but he has a lot of awful to overcome.
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Would anybody do Happ for Kelenic
No way. Madrigal for Kelenic, with balancing parts.
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They don't need Madrigal.
Kelentic would be getting more control and hoping that his contact is more like his AAA numbers going forward.
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They don't need Madrigal.
This is a contending team that got 602 PA of .612 OPS from Adam Frazier. They need something.
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Nobody needs Madrigal, to be fair.
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That will depend upon his health.
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This is a contending team that got 602 PA of .612 OPS from Adam Frazier. They need something.
Moore is likely the guy.
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No way. Madrigal for Kelenic, with balancing parts.
Presumably the balancing parts would be players they actually want.
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Mariners likely will get their 2023 2B by a trade.
Adam Frazier is a FA, Toro was terrible, M’s like moving Dylan Moore all over the field, and they don’t really have a MIF prospect ready to play in majors. Possible M’s could sign one of the big FA SSs and move Crawford to 2B, but they recently gave Crawford a sizable extension to play SS.
So, Madrigal to Seattle is an interesting idea. Of course, who knows if they like him at all, but guessing that M’s brain trust will not be influenced much by Madrigal’s failure to make the Deeg Fave Club.
M’s were, I believe, 28th in majors in batting average, so if they think Madrigal can get into .300 BA form, maybe they’d be interested. Have no idea.
As to Kelenic, Theo was on Buster’s podcast today and said he thought some lefty hitters are going to see their BA go up some because of the anti-shift rule going into effect in 2023. If that happens, sure seems like a guy like Kelenic might benefit—who doesn’t hit much oppo field and hits a lot to pull side and especially up the middle. Maybe he’d be less homer-oriented too if he can hit a bunch of singles that were outs previously. Rule might really help him, so I’d be interested there.
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One more thing on Kelenic.
His career BABIP is an almost unbelievable .201. And, that’s for a guy who can run a bit. I’m sure this is partly because of lack of hitting ball hard too often but, still, .201 is off the charts and putting fielders in more traditional spots figures to help him.
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Kelenic has 47th percentile sprint speed.
94th percentile exit velocity.
28-33% K% in the majors, 15-20% in AAA, if you improve on that and his BABPIP he can be a really interesting offensive player.
If the Mariners upgrade LF where is his playing time going to come from. They have an everyday 3B, SS, CF. Tesocar and Moore are similar players, so a platoon doesn’t make sense there. 2B would make the most sense.
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Kelenic made several late season changes.
"
“He’s really taken a lot of the extra movements out of his swing,” Servais said. “We’ve often talked about the best hitters in our game, the consistent ones over time, their movements are very small, they’re very consistent. The guys with the big leg kicks and all this other stuff — sometimes those are the streakiest guys, because they have so much movement, so much timing involved, and they get out of whack a little bit.
“But I like where Jarred’s at right now. He’s done exactly what we hoped he could do with Julio going down. I don’t think he’s trying to do too much. I think that’s the key.”
Teammates and coaches describe him now as calmer and more relaxed. It’s a small sample size, sure, but Kelenic’s production over the past week is an important affirmation of his improved approach.
In seven games since Sept. 22, he has eight hits in 27 at-bats, with three homers, three doubles, three walks and six strikeouts, posting a .296 batting average and a 1.107 OPS."
Happ for Kelenic and one of their upside High A arms is a great deal.
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I’m highly skeptical the Cubs will spend enough to truly compete next season. But if for the sake of argument you say that’s the plan, how can you trade Happ (which I’ve seen suggested as a possibility by multiple sources) when you’re so comically short of lefty bats? It really doesn’t make a lot of sense.
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Would you give Verlander the Scherzer contract ($130/3) for his age 40-42 seasons? Discuss.
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I don't think Happ is going anywhere. Hoyer loves him, I think? I think he sees both good defense, good hitting, and leadership/character/clubhouse qualities that Theo often thought were lacking in the previous group. Think Hoyer sees Happ and Hoerner as good chemists.
Would be unexpected for Hoyer to dump both of his 2022 all-stars just as he says we're getting ready to content again? Don't think he's going to trade Happ for Kelenik.
I suspect Hoyer sees Happ as a guy he might overpay for? Happ isn't an MVP superstar, who's going to expect mongo offers on the market; I think he might be a little better situated to be signable, and the risks won't be as high in signing him as with Arrieta or Bryant or Baez. It's also possible that Happ might like his "leader" status with the Cubs, like the positive clubhouse chemistry, and like the Cubs chances moving into the future? So that maybe he'd kinda like to be part of something moving up, after kinda being a part of something that was in decline?
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Would you give Verlander the Scherzer contract ($130/3) for his age 40-42 seasons? Discuss.
Way to risky IMO. way way to risky. maybe if we were on the verge and needed that one last SP to get to a title.
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I’m highly skeptical the Cubs will spend enough to truly compete next season. But if for the sake of argument you say that’s the plan, how can you trade Happ (which I’ve seen suggested as a possibility by multiple sources) when you’re so comically short of lefty bats? It really doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Kelenic plays the same position, and is also a Lefty.
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I don't think Happ is going anywhere. Hoyer loves him, I think? I think he sees both good defense, good hitting, and leadership/character/clubhouse qualities that Theo often thought were lacking in the previous group. Think Hoyer sees Happ and Hoerner as good chemists.
Would be unexpected for Hoyer to dump both of his 2022 all-stars just as he says we're getting ready to content again? Don't think he's going to trade Happ for Kelenik.
I suspect Hoyer sees Happ as a guy he might overpay for? Happ isn't an MVP superstar, who's going to expect mongo offers on the market; I think he might be a little better situated to be signable, and the risks won't be as high in signing him as with Arrieta or Bryant or Baez. It's also possible that Happ might like his "leader" status with the Cubs, like the positive clubhouse chemistry, and like the Cubs chances moving into the future? So that maybe he'd kinda like to be part of something moving up, after kinda being a part of something that was in decline?
If Hoyer wouldn’t overpay for Rizzo, Baez, Willson or Bryant why would he overpay for Happ. If Happ will sign a team friendly extension I think Hoyer would happily pay him. If he wants market value I don’t think he is interested.
Until the young prospects start to hit Chicago compete is going to mean being in the error bar range of the Cardinals. The Cubs focus is going to be more 24/25 than 23. Happ may or may not be part of that.
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What would you think it would take to sign Happ? And what do you think would be overpaying him?
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Would you give Verlander the Scherzer contract ($130/3) for his age 40-42 seasons? Discuss.
2 years with an opt out and adjust AAV as needed.
What would you think it would take to sign Happ? And what do you think would be overpaying him?
The Cubs are going to put in all of his stuff into their computer system and it will spit out a value. The contract would be less than that. My guess is that the Cubs would probably want somewhere south of what Schwarber got.
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I don't think Happ is going anywhere. Hoyer loves him, I think? I think he sees both good defense, good hitting, and leadership/character/clubhouse qualities that Theo often thought were lacking in the previous group. Think Hoyer sees Happ and Hoerner as good chemists.
Would be unexpected for Hoyer to dump both of his 2022 all-stars just as he says we're getting ready to content again? Don't think he's going to trade Happ for Kelenik.
I suspect Hoyer sees Happ as a guy he might overpay for? Happ isn't an MVP superstar, who's going to expect mongo offers on the market; I think he might be a little better situated to be signable, and the risks won't be as high in signing him as with Arrieta or Bryant or Baez. It's also possible that Happ might like his "leader" status with the Cubs, like the positive clubhouse chemistry, and like the Cubs chances moving into the future? So that maybe he'd kinda like to be part of something moving up, after kinda being a part of something that was in decline?
What happens after the season (or at the deadline) with Happ is a separate question. The progress and health of Davis, Canario, and PCA has a lot to say about it, as does how much real progress the club has made in the standings (and what kind of year Happ has, of course). But now, as constructed? Trading him makes no sense.
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Would like to see Cubs extend Happ this off-season. Of course, as we all know, Cubs don’t have much of a track record of being able to extend key contributors. But, Happ is coming off a 4 WAR season.
Of course, for the right deal, most anyone is expendable. But, with only one year of control left, Cubs not going to get all that much. So, do an extension.
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https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1593725922926002177
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Is AAA stats with the Braves are interesting. Traded a small bit of power for a lot more contact.
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Bellinger is a non-tender.
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https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1593725922926002177
While I'm all for adding as many ex-Savannah Bananas as possible, this is another kind of weird move.
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Kelenic plays the same position, and is also a Lefty.
You need to add lefty bats, not trade one for another. Especially a relative sure thing for a complete LIAB.
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While I'm all for adding as many ex-Savannah Bananas as possible, this is another kind of weird move.
deeg, I imagine Bannon is one of those deals where they claim a guy, with no expectation of keeping him on the 40-man. After they start signing the big-league free agents, they'll waive him, with hopes that he'll end up at Iowa. Nothing lost in doing so.
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deeg, I imagine Bannon is one of those deals where they claim a guy, with no expectation of keeping him on the 40-man. After they start signing the big-league free agents, they'll waive him, with hopes that he'll end up at Iowa. Nothing lost in doing so.
Most likely, a sense of why bother to it but I suppose there's a non-zero chance you could sneak him through waivers and stash him at AAA (which is what the three teams that non-tendered him were hoping to do).
It's looking increasingly like the Cubs will have to outbid better teams to sign Senga, which means that's unlikely to happen. What's the backup plan for the rotation, then? Realistically there's no way they're signing Verlander, deGrom or Rodon.
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It's looking increasingly like the Cubs will have to outbid better teams to sign Senga, which means that's unlikely to happen.
It's certainly possible - probably even likely - that the Cubs won't sign Senga, but they did outbid a number of better teams last year to sign Suzuki.
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Cubs non-tender Ortega, Marquez, and Vizcaino.
Sampson and Wick sign one-year deals to avoid arbitration.
Happ, Heuer, Hoerner, and Madrigal tendered.
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Here are the ten that I would cut first, generally in that order, unless the Cubs had information not available to the public, such as the reason why Vizcaino never showed up.
Heyward
Quiroz
Reyes
Bote
Espinoza
Mills
Young
Brault
Rivas
McKinstry
Vizcaino
Didn't miss by too much.
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$1.9 for Sampson. $1.55 for Wick.
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De-rostering Ortega is interesting. Not surprising, and I think most of the board wanted that.
But I'd like to appreciate him, a little? I know the board is heavily prioritized on defense, for good reasons, and maybe my interest in offense is unsophisticated and kind of 5th-grader-like. But for a team that really struggled to score runs, and get anybody on base, Ortega wasn't really that bad on the anti-awful spectrum offensively?
1. Over his two years with the Cubs, his OPS was .753. Only 3 teams in baseball had team-OPS higher than that. I would love to get a .750-OPS center fielder this season! His combined OPS+ was 105. I'd love to get that this year. And an OPS+ of 95 isn't desirable, but there are lots of players who post seasons WAY worse than that (Bellinger being one.)
2. Even Ortega's .688-OPS this season, unwelcome as it seems, a team might end up doing worse. 10 teams had team-OPS of .689 or worse.
Or, consider OBP. The Cubs really struggled to get any baserunners this season. Ortega was .360 and .331 OBP these two seasons for the Cubs.
1. Over his two years with Cubs, his OBP was .345. No team in baseball had a team-OBP anywhere close.
2. Even his .331 OBP this season, only two teams beat that, and those by only 1 and 2 points.
Consider the auto-out profile or Ortega versus some other familiar names: Ortega .360/.331 vs:
1. Bellinger .240/.265.
2. Jarred Kelenic .265/.221.
3. Javier Baez .238/.292/.278 (I cheated here, and left out his hot streak with Mets. With Mets fire added in, 2021 jumps from .292 to .311)
4. Patrick Wisdom. .305/.298
5. Hermosillo .237/.250
6. Jason Heyward .280/.272
7. Madrigal .305, with .282 slugging.
I'm not at all suggesting that Ortega should have been our intended starter. Nor that the Cubs should assume the worst versions of guys who have struggled recently will be their future. Obviously interest in Bellinger assumes his OPS+ will improve beyond his recent 44/78; maybe he'll blossom into Patrick Wisdom-level hitting? Obviously interest in Kelenic assumes Kelenic has a chance to be better than the .240/.265-OBP guy that he's been.
But I'm just kinda thinking that while we can take shots with other guys and hope they improve dramatically, we need to do so realizing it's possible that many big-league hitters do a lot worse than Ortega, especially in the auto-out category. There's a non-trivial chance that whomever Hoyer replaces him with might score a **lot** worse on the anti-awful scale than Rafael, offense-wise.
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Deeg, most Cub GM's in the past 25 years have loved LIAB's. Of all the LIAB's out there, Bellinger is the most appealing to me. One LIAB, one major league trade, one top FA acquisition. Bring up a couple of kids, and let's go.
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Candelario would be really interesting. He could platoon at 1B with Mervis and 3B with Wisdom. He was better against righties in 2021.
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He was first a Cub, right?
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Yes. Traded for Wilson and Avilla.
It sure sounds like the options in CF are Bellinger or Keirmeyer. 100% Bellinger if that is the case.
Sharma said Bassett, Senga and Walker are rotation options. If Senga isn’t in play I’d go Walker over Bassett.
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Yes. Traded for Wilson and Avilla.
It sure sounds like the options in CF are Bellinger or Keirmeyer. 100% Bellinger if that is the case.
Sharma said Bassett, Senga and Walker are rotation options. If Senga isn’t in play I’d go Walker over Bassett.
There seem to be a lot of teams coveting Nimmo.
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Yep, traded by the Cubs in 2017.
I wouldn't be upset if the signed him for a short term deal. Switch hitter that can play third and first, with a little power. He was a fairly good defensive third baseman in the minors, but I have not followed him since he went to Detroit. He seems offensively to have either rather good years or rather bad years. I don't know if his bad years have been injury related or not.
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Candelario would be really interesting. He could platoon at 1B with Mervis and 3B with Wisdom. He was better against righties in 2021.
Yeah, could see that. Makes sense.
In 20/21 combined, Candelario had 600 PAs from left side with .800 OPS. So, that works.
Tigers were looking at a probable $7 arb salary for him in 2023 after a dismal 2022, so can see why a non-tender. Could be an opportunity if Abreu or Bell doesn’t happen.
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Per fangraphs, Candelario seems to be not bad defensively at 3B.
He was a .273 OBP guy last year, so almost as bad an auto-outer as Bellinger, and worse than Wisdom.
I admit I'm kinda leery of assembling auto-out guys plural. Hitting in Wrigley April is hard for everybody, so for guys who are auto-outs to start with, I think debuting in Wrigley April is risky. Both an invitation for a guy to have a .150-OBP in April and lose all of their confidence; and an invitation for Ross to stick with an auto-out for way too long, under the "nobody-hits-in-April, I won't pull the plug till end-of-May" logic. Having a guy like that is one thing; but if you start to collect a volume of them (Wisdom, Candelario, and Bellinger?), I'm a little nervous!
But yeah, good-version Candelario could be way better than bad-version-Wisdom, given that Wisdom is himself the risky kind of guy who could pretty easily drop 50 points off his BA/OBP and 100 points off his slugging in any given season.
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Deeg, most Cub GM's in the past 25 years have loved LIAB's. Of all the LIAB's out there, Bellinger is the most appealing to me. One LIAB, one major league trade, one top FA acquisition. Bring up a couple of kids, and let's go.
The problem comes if we sign him as our first option in CF, which is what seems most likely. It's not like Bellinger is going to sign some minor league deal - it's probably going to take $8-10 million, and maybe two years. A LiAB as insurance is one thing - signing one instead of bringing in a relative sure thing is something else. Not all bad contracts are long-term. But if it's him or Kiermayer? Sure, the better of two bad options.
Of all the non-tenders our there Candelario makes the most sense for the Cubs, and seems the most likely to be a major-league average or better regular next season.
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What options are there really for CF?
Free Agency you have Nimmo and Judge as better players, but the Cubs don’t seem interested. Are you going to trade prospects for a CF? Bellinger gives some lefty power and you can platoon him Morel.
You could pay Bellinger $20 million for 1 year and it wouldn’t limit anything the Cubs do this year.
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What options are there really for CF?
Free Agency you have Nimmo and Judge as better players, but the Cubs don’t seem interested. Are you going to trade prospects for a CF? Bellinger gives some lefty power and you can platoon him Morel.
You could pay Bellinger $20 million for 1 year and it wouldn’t limit anything the Cubs do this year.
You can't just say "the Cubs don't seem interested" and leave that lying there like a dead skunk in the middle of the road. They should be interested in Nimmo.
I'd certainly see if you could get somebody like Fletcher for Wisdom and a B prospect, then sign Candelario for 3B. No, Fletcher isn's a sure thing either by any means, but I think he's likely to outproduce Bellinger or (Goc help us) Keirmaier.
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I don't think that anyone, especially the Cubs, would pay Bellinger 20 million for one year. The Dodgers. who know him best, are not interest at a much lower price. As far as the Cubs are concerned, even if he performed far beyond reasonable expectations, he would leave the team before he actually could have a positive impact.
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I don't think that anyone, especially the Cubs, would pay Bellinger 20 million for one year. The Dodgers. who know him best, are not interest at a much lower price. As far as the Cubs are concerned, even if he performed far beyond reasonable expectations, he would leave the team before he actually could have a positive impact.
Winning games is always a positive.
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Winning more is always a positive. But winning pennants and World Series is much more of a positive.
When you have a bad team, spending money to become a short term mediocre team is pretty much wasted unless it also gives long term value.
There is no way that the Cubs are going to spend enough money this winter to become a top tier team. They made a move in the right direction last winter when they signed Stroman and Suzuki. It appears that they will advance that plan this winter with a couple more long term free agent signings. If this goes well, and they have more reliable information on what they can expect from their farm system, and what short term moves can propel them to the top tier, that is the time to spend big money on the short term.
In the meantime, the money is better spent on mid-range free agents such as Candelario or Abreu. Bellinger also fits into that catagory, if you are talking 8 - 10 million per year, but no poorly performing flier is worth 20 million per year, just on spec.
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When you have a bad team, spending money to become a short term mediocre team is pretty much wasted unless it also gives long term value.
I think you are mostly talking about "on the roster" value. My comment was directed more toward the nebulous "learning how to win". Winning is a habit and so is losing. Winning is good for the kids, both in the minor leagues and with the big club.
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Winning is indeed a habit, for teams that have the talent to do so. That is why I advocate building a dynasty rather than a current team. Eptein started out talking that way, and then destroyed the team by short term efforts to take advantage of the "window". I would prefer a longer view.
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Dave, reference to Bellinger at $20 was hyperbole, not meant literally. Under the perspective that the Cubs have plenty of money and could pay Bellinger $20, who cares about the cash. Nobody is going to pay Bellinger $20M for this season. Whatever he gets will not be prohibitive; whether he's able to justify whatever he gets is a kind of blind guess.
He'll need to make a big step forward to make himself into a Patrick-Wisdom level player offensively. Some people think he might do that, but who knows? And some people think he might improve **much** more than that. Who knows? But for those who think he might possibly hypothetically have those kinds of improvements, he's a LIAB candidate.
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Cubs make a waiver claim.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-add-a-local-product-in-waiver-claim/
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Dave, reference to Bellinger at $20 was hyperbole, not meant literally. Under the perspective that the Cubs have plenty of money and could pay Bellinger $20, who cares about the cash. Nobody is going to pay Bellinger $20M for this season. Whatever he gets will not be prohibitive; whether he's able to justify whatever he gets is a kind of blind guess.
He'll need to make a big step forward to make himself into a Patrick-Wisdom level player offensively. Some people think he might do that, but who knows? And some people think he might improve **much** more than that. Who knows? But for those who think he might possibly hypothetically have those kinds of improvements, he's a LIAB candidate.
I realize that the 20 million figure was a hyperbole. But the problem with discussions on this board and elsewhere is that the money portion of the situation is ignored when making suggestions. Should the Cubs sign him at 20 million for one year? Certainly, they have enough money in their budget to do so, but that doesn't mean that it would be reasonable to expect it. The perspective of "who cares about the cash" is not real life. Whether we like it or not, baseball is a business, and money is a part of business. If a team values player X at 7 million per year, they would be foolish to pay 15 million for him, even though there is room in the budget.
It is rather like comments that say "we should trade for player X in return for prospects. How can that statement be responded to without knowing what prospects would be involved. You can only respond to a suggested negotiation without giving perameters of both give and take.
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Banon seems to be a good pickup. I don't know about his defense, but other than one season which may have been injury related, he has hit quite well in the minors, with reasonable power.
I still hope they sign Candelario to play third base, at least part time.
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With some of the dog **** we've trotted out recently the possibility of signing Cody Bellinger no matter how much he's fallen off feels like we're signing Ted Williams.
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You can't just say "the Cubs don't seem interested" and leave that lying there like a dead skunk in the middle of the road. They should be interested in Nimmo.
I'd certainly see if you could get somebody like Fletcher for Wisdom and a B prospect, then sign Candelario for 3B. No, Fletcher isn's a sure thing either by any means, but I think he's likely to outproduce Bellinger or (Goc help us) Keirmaier.
Just saying the Cubs should sign a bunch of high priced free agents to multi-year deals isn’t really a bright roster construction plan either. The Cubs shouldn’t be investing a lot of money in CF when they have multiple really good prospects and already have potentially 2 expensive OF. If Nimmo was a star player then it might make more sense.
So the D-backs are going to give up a prospect that will put up over 2 WAR for Wisdom and a B prospect? I too would love to give nothing for good players. The Cubs should definitely do more of those trades.
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Your certainty about what an untried prospect not in any D-Backs top 10 lists will do is admirable. Why aren’t you a GM somewhere?
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Just saying the Cubs should sign a bunch of high priced free agents to multi-year deals isn’t really a bright roster construction plan either. The Cubs shouldn’t be investing a lot of money in CF when they have multiple really good prospects and already have potentially 2 expensive OF. If Nimmo was a star player then it might make more sense.
So the D-backs are going to give up a prospect that will put up over 2 WAR for Wisdom and a B prospect? I too would love to give nothing for good players. The Cubs should definitely do more of those trades.
The fact that we have some CF candidates in the wind makes Bellinger a better pick than Nimmo. Bellinger can also play AS level firstbase.
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The fact that we have some CF candidates in the wind makes Bellinger a better pick than Nimmo. Bellinger can also play AS level firstbase.
Too many good LH hitters with defense versatility sounds like a nice problem to have.
Nimmo can easily slide to a corner if the Crowening actually happens. And Crow is really the only legit good CF prospect we have - Davis and Canario are ideally corners. I like all of those guys a lot (especially PCA) but prospects are prospects - none of them are sure things, and none of ours are truly elite, top-20 in baseball types. A big-market team should not be shying away from a guy like Nimmo because they have a few pretty good prospects a year or two away.
The original prompt for this anyway was that the Cubs should at least be in play for Nimmo, not that there’s any guarantee you’d get him or that you shouldn’t have a Plan B.
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Too many good LH hitters with defense versatility sounds like a nice problem to have.
Nimmo can easily slide to a corner if the Crowening actually happens. And Crow is really the only legit good CF prospect we have - Davis and Canario are ideally corners. I like all of those guys a lot (especially PCA) but prospects are prospects - none of them are sure things, and none of ours are truly elite, top-20 in baseball types. A big-market team should not be shying away from a guy like Nimmo because they have a few pretty good prospects a year or two away.
The original prompt for this anyway was that the Cubs should at least be in play for Nimmo, not that there’s any guarantee you’d get him or that you shouldn’t have a Plan B.
You already have Happ and Suzuki on the corners. What happens to them? The Cubs acting like a big market team would be great. That doesn't mean they have to just go and every expensive free agent. Nimmo is going to be 30 next year and will likely be declining when the Cubs will be at their best.
Your certainty about what an untried prospect not in any D-Backs top 10 lists will do is admirable. Why aren’t you a GM somewhere?
You are the one saying you thought Fletcher would outpace Bellinger by a lot next year and Bellinger was worth 1.7 fWAR last year. So if I'm going to follow your logic why are the D-Backs trading him for guy you can replace with non-tender and a B prospect?
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You already have Happ and Suzuki on the corners. What happens to them? The Cubs acting like a big market team would be great. That doesn't mean they have to just go and every expensive free agent. Nimmo is going to be 30 next year and will likely be declining when the Cubs will be at their best.
You are the one saying you thought Fletcher would outpace Bellinger by a lot next year and Bellinger was worth 1.7 fWAR last year. So if I'm going to follow your logic why are the D-Backs trading him for guy you can replace with non-tender and a B prospect?
Except I never said Fletcher would “outprorudce Bellinger by a lot”, but don’t let that stop you. I do think there’s a good chance he outproduces Bellinger and I said so, but that’s mainly because even if he doesn’t hit the glove seems to be legit - and there’s a better chance he hits at league average than Bellinger at this point.
Bellinger isn’t going to give you any kind of a club option beyond one season - someone will give him a one-year deal, which is what he wants. Either he’s going to suck yet again (most likely) or he’s going to miraculously revert to some version of his earlier self and sign a big contract with somebody else. With Fletcher (just as an example) if he does hit, you’ve got him under team control for multiple seasons. The D-Backs have a bunch of LF outfielders they aren’t going to use - they’ve got to trade a couple of them. They reportedly want RH power. Why not pursue it?
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The constant sniping really ruins what is otherwise an excellent place for Cub information and opinions.
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One more thing on Bellinger. Just how elite is his defense, really?
According to the DRS leaderboard at The Fielding Bible, Bellinger was 18th among 30 CF with at least 500 innings last season (0 DRS). Stretch it out to the last 2 seasons and minimum 1000 innings, he’s 17th of 26 (-1 DRS). You can cherry pick stats (like OAA) where he looks better, but the total picture is a guy who’s good - not elite. And how elite does a guy’s defense have to be to justify being among the handful of worst hitters in baseball?
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For me, I would fill CF in 2023 with a caretaker short-term guy who can play defense and hit a bit.
That's because Cubs top prospect is a CFer whose ETA is probably some time in 2024.
Don't see logic of filling CF with a 5-year commitment player who will cost $100M. Spend that money elsewhere. Nimmo is a nice player but the clubs going hard after Nimmo should be clubs looking for a long-term fit in CF. Cubs figure to have CFer in waiting and he's going to be inexpensive for a bunch of seasons when he gets here. So, Nimmo not a fit, seems to me.
Not against having a CFer playing a corner--if Nimmo were to move over to a corner--but Happ just deservedly won a Gold Glove playing a corner, so LF defense not a priority to upgrade.
Just re-sign Happ (and Hoerner) and stop the bleeding of good Cubs players taking a walk in free agency.
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Bellinger will benefit greatly from the no shift rule. When he didn't strike out, he had a lot of atom balls.
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Bellinger will benefit greatly from the no shift rule. When he didn't strike out, he had a lot of atom balls.
That’s the hope. His peripherals were pretty bad anyway, but that might help him de-awfulize a little.
Christian Vazquez followed BN on twitter, make of that what you will. Better hitter than Gomes, has occasionally even been a good one. Average framer and thrower, well-regarded as handler of pitchers. Would rather have Narvaez (elite framer, left-handed bat) but either would be a solid addition.
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Vazquez and Ross were teammates for a short time on the 2014 Red Sox.
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Frankly, it wouldn't shock me if Hoyer didn't trade Suzuki. Why not? He's a huge chip and could bring back a haul of prospects we never heard of or a star front line pitcher. If you're saying, he would never do that. Look at all the work he did to get him to the Cubs. That would be stupid. Tell that to Darvish.
Right now, deeg's head is exploding.
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One more thing on Bellinger. Just how elite is his defense, really?
According to the DRS leaderboard at The Fielding Bible, Bellinger was 18th among 30 CF with at least 500 innings last season (0 DRS). Stretch it out to the last 2 seasons and minimum 1000 innings, he’s 17th of 26 (-1 DRS). You can cherry pick stats (like OAA) where he looks better, but the total picture is a guy who’s good - not elite. And how elite does a guy’s defense have to be to justify being among the handful of worst hitters in baseball?
DRS is the only defensive stat that has him rated like that.
OAA is the only defensive stat that uses statcast batted ball, positioning, jump, speed and route efficiency. It is the closest stat to what major league teams are using. Bellinger is above average in arm strength, speed and jump. He’s just fine for 1 year as CF.
Bellinger as is will give you slightly below league average offense against righties, left handed power, decent defense and a short term commitment. If the shoulder is healed and the lower leg injury was the issue last year then he could have significant upside if healthy. You don’t need the upside to improve the Cubs though. He is a perfect low cost gamble.
All he costs is money and it $X won’t affect what the Cubs do this off-season.
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Frankly, it wouldn't shock me if Hoyer didn't trade Suzuki. Why not? He's a huge chip and could bring back a haul of prospects we never heard of or a star front line pitcher. If you're saying, he would never do that. Look at all the work he did to get him to the Cubs. That would be stupid. Tell that to Darvish.
Right now, deeg's head is exploding.
TBH, I’m not sure what you’re saying here (especially with that double negative). Are you saying they should consider trading Suzuki? That they shouldn’t? That trading Darvish was smart? Or stupid?
In any case trading Darvish was dumb, and so would trading Suzuki. If you want to make a positive impression for future Japanese imports you don’t convince them to sign and then trade them a year later. And in any event I doubt teams see a lot of excess value in Suzuki’s contract after the year he had - it looks about right.
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According to Jon Morosi Dansby Swanson and Carter Hawkins both went to Vanderbilt and Dansby's old lady plays soccer for some girls team in...Chicago.
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Per Dusty's post about Dansby Swanson, his fiance is Mallory Diane Pugh. She is an American soccer player who plays as a forward for the Chicago Red Stars of the National Women's Soccer League. I suppose that might make it more appealing for him to sign with the Cubs. Who knows how interested he would be otherwise, or how interested the Cubs are in him.
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MLB star Dansby Swanson started dating American soccer player Mallory Pugh in 2017. The two met through Swanson’s former teammate and Pugh’s brother-in-law, Jace Peterson, who is married to Pugh’s sister Brianna.
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In addition, Dansby Swanson’s cousin Greta is married to a stunt man who was a stunt double for Kevin Bacon during the 1990s.
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Frankly, it wouldn't shock me if Hoyer didn't trade Suzuki. Why not? He's a huge chip and could bring back a haul of prospects we never heard of or a star front line pitcher. If you're saying, he would never do that. Look at all the work he did to get him to the Cubs. That would be stupid. Tell that to Darvish.
Right now, deeg's head is exploding.
Luckily for Deeg's head, Suzuki has a full no trade.
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MLB reporter Jon Heyman of the New York Post was on 670 The Score on Tuesday morning and said that the Cubs are in the mix for two-time All-Star Cody Bellinger, who was recently non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
“I’ve heard his name connected to the Cubs,” Heyman said of Bellinger. “I think the Cubs are really looking at those great shortstops, so that’s the big story with the Cubs. Are they going to get (Carlos) Correa or (Xander) Bogaerts or one of those guys, (Trea) Turner? That’s the big story. They’re looking at catching. I know they’ve talked about (Christian) Vazquez and some other catchers.
“I have heard Bellinger connected with the Cubs.”
Bellinger hit .210 with 19 homers and 68 RBIs last season.
When Bellinger is raking, he can do damage as he hit .305 with 47 homers, 15 stolen bases and 115 RBIs in winning the 2019 National League MVP award.
Since that sensational year, he has hit just .203 in 295 regular season games.
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“I’ve heard his name connected to the Cubs,” Heyman said of Bellinger. “I think the Cubs are really looking at those great shortstops, so that’s the big story with the Cubs. Are they going to get (Carlos) Correa or (Xander) Bogaerts or one of those guys, (Trea) Turner? That’s the big story. They’re looking at catching. I know they’ve talked about (Christian) Vazquez and some other catchers.
I'm still skeptical they'll be in on any shortstop except maybe Swanson. They were supposed to be a top candidate to sign one last year too.
Sean Murphy is the catcher they should target if he's actually available even if he costs a prospect or two the Cubs don't want to give up. He's a career .257/.335/.485 hitter on the road and he seems to be great at all the things Contreras (supposedly) didn't do. I think he has another level if he gets out of the terrible ballpark in Oakland. But trading away significant prospects is probably off the table this offseason.
Vazquez is probably the next best option, but it would be a significant downgrade from Contreras.
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"I'm still skeptical they'll be in on any shortstop except maybe Swanson. They were supposed to be a top candidate to sign one last year too."
Maybe if Rafael Palmeiro came back and started hanging around Ms. Pugh, Dansby would sign tomorrow.
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I'll lose my **** if they waste money on Swanson. It isn't because Swanson is a bad player, he just isn't what the Cubs need.
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I'll lose my **** if they waste money on Swanson. It isn't because Swanson is a bad player, he just isn't what the Cubs need.
Swanson isn't what they need, Bellinger is. Roger.
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Since 2020, of the big 4 SS on the market, Dansby Swanson has the most HRs, the highest Hard Hit%, the highest Barrel%, the second highest ISO, the second highest baserunning value, the second lowest BABIP, and by far the most defensive value.
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The coin has been flipped; it came out heads; and Congrats to you Dansby Swanson!
Yes, it’s arbitrary but you won the coin toss and have been admitted to,
The Deeg Fave Club!!!
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Again, a little introspection - that’s all I’m suggesting. Sometimes taking that hard look in the mirror can be a good thing.
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You think we could get Aroldis Chapman back for cheap?
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Why? Since the Cubs are insistent that they need a shortstop, maybe they should check with the Padres. They may be tired of their guy's shtick by now.
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I think Swanson would be great. Honestly anyone that isn’t a scrap heap, Quadruple-A player and is an actual quality major league player would be a fun acquisition this offseason.
Swanson > Andrelton Simmons Part II
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Most of the guys we're talking about what not have been non-tendered if they were this year's Cubs.
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I think Swanson would be great. Honestly anyone that isn’t a scrap heap, Quadruple-A player and is an actual quality major league player would be a fun acquisition this offseason.
Swanson > Andrelton Simmons Part II
As I’ve said before, agnostic about Swanson.
He’s been a quality player now for a few seasons (mostly because of defense) and I’m fine with bringing him in. Even though he’s a member of the Deeg Fave Club, most of us probably consider just him #4 of the FA SSs. Still, would be very disappointing if Cubs come up empty with all four, so would be more than okay with Swanson if it comes to that..
Still, he was kind of a disappointment for too many years before the more recent surge, so who knows what’s real with him going forward. That’s the concern. Probably not an impact offensive player.
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"#4 of the FA SSs", as if they were all going to cost the same.
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I think Swanson would be great. Honestly anyone that isn’t a scrap heap, Quadruple-A player and is an actual quality major league player would be a fun acquisition this offseason.
Swanson > Andrelton Simmons Part II
Hi JR my name is Nico Hoerner. I played SS for the Cubs last year. I was pretty good.
Swanson isn't what they need, Bellinger is. Roger.
Because contract length doesn’t matter. Got it.
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It is a valid point that, when we talk about the 4 top shortstops, we begin to think of them as equal and interchangeable. But that is far from the case. A quick look at the stats shows that Swanson isn't in the same class as the other three, and isn't really much of an improvement over Hoerner at shortstop. Swanson isn't the "star" player that so many people on this board seem to think that is essential to victory.
Granted, all things being equal, a shortstop has a substantial premium merely because of his position. When it is determined that a shortstop prospect will be unable to continue at shortstop, his value drops substantially, because a better than average hitting shortstop becomes an average hitting second baseman, or a below average hitting third baseman. And yet not a single person has really mentioned that when we move Hoerner to second base, he loses value merely because the hitting requirements of the position are much higher. While it is true that a great shortstop can probably play most other positions on the field, when he does so, he loses value to the team.
Like BlueJay, I will be quite disappointed if the Cubs sign Swanson to a contract that is anywhere near the price or length of Correa or Turner. I would much rather leave Hoerner at short, and put the money into a top pitcher or third baseman. Bogaerts is slightly different than the other three, since a great many people believe that a move to third base will happen sooner rather than later, and that will probably enter into his contract price.
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Jon Morosi is very big on Correa to the Cubs. He argues that the Cubs & Wrigley Field have a special appeal to Correa and that the Cubs would be a perfect platform for Correa to pursue his goals. He also believes that Correa is the perfect match for the Cubs in their next stage. He's also big on Senga and Senga to the Cubs.
We'll see. The video with Morosi is at the bottom of the Marquee article.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/swiss-army-knife-cubs-hitting-department-planning-on-to-take-holistic-approach-to-offense/
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I might be wrong about this but in recent years it seems that the offensive expectations at 2B haven't been much higher than those at SS. In fact, there seem to be more strong offensive players at SS.
The value of paying more and signing Correa vs Swanson is that it contributes more to getting our offense into an acceptable range. Impactful offensive players are not going to be easy to acquire.
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Since 2020, of the big 4 SS on the market, Dansby Swanson has the most HRs, the highest Hard Hit%, the highest Barrel%, the second highest ISO, the second highest baserunning value, the second lowest BABIP, and by far the most defensive value.
Let's look at some other cherry picked stats.
Swanson has
Lowest BB%,
Highest K%
Lowest BA
Lowest OBP
Lowest SLG
Lowest wOBA
Lowest wRC+
Lowest max Exit Velocity
His slash line from 20-22 is
.265/.324/.451 wRC+ 109, 7.6% BB%, 26% K%
He would have been the 4th or 5th best hitter on the 2022 Cubs. A Cubs team that loses Willson and makes Swanson the big add is going to be worse on offense in 2023. The Cubs even if the spend like they should are only going to have room for so many $20+ million contracts, giving one to Swanson is a bad idea.
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…..He would have been the 4th or 5th best hitter on the 2022 Cubs. A Cubs team that loses Willson and makes Swanson the big add is going to be worse on offense in 2023. The Cubs even if the spend like they should are only going to have room for so many $20+ million contracts, giving one to Swanson is a bad idea.
The way to make up for loss of Contreras offense is mostly 1B/DH. There is no scenario in which a new catcher is anything other than a big downgrade offensively. That's practically a given.
Big question for me is: if Cubs lose out on Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or decide they don't want give out the long-term deals those guys might get, do you just pass on Swanson? Just live with not getting one of the Big 4?
My answer to that question is that would be a big disappointment coming away empty-handed, so inclined to sign Swanson if comes to that. He's not going to get Correa/Turner money. He's the #4 guy of this group, clearly.
Agnostic about Swanson because not confident abut which Swanson shows up in 2023 and beyond. Last two seasons, plus partial 2020 season, Swanson had 12.1 fWAR. That's about a 5 WAR a year player. That guy I like. But, realistically, hard to see a bunch of 5 WAR seasons going forward. Maybe more of a 3 WAR guy? Who knows.
A bunch of that recent WAR is Swanson defense. But, not a bad thing for the SS position. And, with Hoerner moving to 2B, that's perhaps elite up-the-middle team defense, especially with a big defensive upgrade in CF (and catcher), perhaps too? Well, great up-the-middle team defense has been a winning formula for over a century. So, that is not a bad strategy if comes to that.
Have to weigh a Swanson signing with the long-term payroll impact, without the big offensive impact. A good hitter, but not an impact offensive guy. A valid point. But, at SS, think you have to look at the whole package.
Best way to address this is to sign one of the other SSs. But, if it's Swanson or bust, I'm okay with Swanson.
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One can only hold out hope that Hoyer has more sense than self-appointed experts on fan boards. And that he has enough budget for it to matter.
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Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/
To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.
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Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/
To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.
I think the Cubs are very serious about having been seen as finalists for all these guys.
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Hoerner was .737 OPS. Among SS, that was 9th. That would have been 5th among 2B. Other than Altuve, there aren't a ton of great-hitting 2B's. This isn't like the 90's when there were hitters like jeff Kent, Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg, Carlos Baerga, Robeto Alomar, Lou Whitaker, and others.
Hoerner's offense will compare favorably to most 2B's these days.
https://www.mlb.com/stats/regular-season?position=2B
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Agree with Craig…Hoerner’s bat plays just fine at 2B, and his glove will be crucial there with the new shift rules.
For all the uncertainty with his bat, a Swanson-Hoerner combo up the middle is a strength.
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Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/
To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.
I'm not sure where you get the idea that the Cubs are "walking back expectations". The Cubs are not mentioned as a source at any point, and he merely says that some people in baseball do not think that they will go for a contract that large. I have never heard Hoyer or any other Cubs source give any indicatio of how much or how little they are willing to spend. They Have indicated that they don't want a contract over 6 years or so, and seem to have stuck to that.
BN is hardly made up of reporters. They seem to use reporters as their source, rather than develop their own, at least when it comes to the major league team.
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I do think he’s probably right about the Cubs not going the distance with Correa, but Rogers’ credibility is somewhat undercut by his assertion that either 7 years or 230 million is realistic for Correa. Not a chance in hell of either.
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I think it is rather rare that a top free agent gets as much money or as many years as most pundits claim they will. My guess is that Correa will get about 6 year, 192 million or 7 year, 222 million.
Let's open a thread with predictions, and see how far off CurtOne will be?
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I think it is rather rare that a top free agent gets as much money or as many years as most pundits claim they will. My guess is that Correa will get about 6 year, 192 million or 7 year, 222 million.
Let's open a thread with predictions, and see how far off CurtOne will be?
This from Davep, a guy who thinks Ancestry.com is a dating site.
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The way to make up for loss of Contreras offense is mostly 1B/DH. There is no scenario in which a new catcher is anything other than a big downgrade offensively. That's practically a given.
Big question for me is: if Cubs lose out on Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or decide they don't want give out the long-term deals those guys might get, do you just pass on Swanson? Just live with not getting one of the Big 4?
My answer to that question is that would be a big disappointment coming away empty-handed, so inclined to sign Swanson if comes to that. He's not going to get Correa/Turner money. He's the #4 guy of this group, clearly.
Agnostic about Swanson because not confident abut which Swanson shows up in 2023 and beyond. Last two seasons, plus partial 2020 season, Swanson had 12.1 fWAR. That's about a 5 WAR a year player. That guy I like. But, realistically, hard to see a bunch of 5 WAR seasons going forward. Maybe more of a 3 WAR guy? Who knows.
A bunch of that recent WAR is Swanson defense. But, not a bad thing for the SS position. And, with Hoerner moving to 2B, that's perhaps elite up-the-middle team defense, especially with a big defensive upgrade in CF (and catcher), perhaps too? Well, great up-the-middle team defense has been a winning formula for over a century. So, that is not a bad strategy if comes to that.
Have to weigh a Swanson signing with the long-term payroll impact, without the big offensive impact. A good hitter, but not an impact offensive guy. A valid point. But, at SS, think you have to look at the whole package.
Best way to address this is to sign one of the other SSs. But, if it's Swanson or bust, I'm okay with Swanson.
I disagree that 1B/DH is where Contreras offense gets replaced. You sign Corerra and that replaces Willson. Then 1B/DH becomes an upgrade.
MLB Traderumors has Swanson at 7/$154 ($22 AAV), Fangraphs has him for 6/$144 or crowd sourcing 6/$139-141 ($23-24 AAV). That is paying a defensive first SS until he is 35-36.
Just to bring up JR's favorite SS, Simmons had his best offensive years at 27/28. He was worth 4.9/4.5 fWAR. He's been worth 2.9 fWAR in the 4 seasons since then. Now do I think Swanson is going to fall off the face of the Earth like Simmons, not really. I didn't think Heyward would either. If you are going to be paying $20+ million for a player on a long term contact I don't want it to be to a defensive first player ever again.
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I disagree that 1B/DH is where Contreras offense gets replaced. You sign Corerra and that replaces Willson. Then 1B/DH becomes an upgrade……
Sure, Correa would be the goal. But, do you pass on Swanson if can’t/don’t get Correa (or Turner/Boegarts)? Tons of competition for the SSs at a HUGE price. What’s the fallback position? Nobody?
1B much easier to get a Contreras bat replacement. Abreu had a better wRC+ than Contreras and more fWAR in 2022 and throughout his career. Don’t have to pay $200/$250 to get a 1B who can hit.
If can get Abreu and Swanson, that’s a major upgrade, along with the candidates we’re speculating about at other positions.
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I agree that the Cubs MUST get one of the big 4 FA SSs. Also agree that Correa is the preferred target by a wide margin.
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Hoerner with Morel/Madrigal is the fallback.
Abreu and Swanson is holding serve at best on offense.
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It is interesting that Morel has become the invisible man in the off season discussions. He played an adequate defensive second base, whild slugging .433 and OPS of .741. If he were another team's free agent this year, there would be a clamor of fans rooting for the Cubs to sign him. There is reason to believe that, just as Happ greatly improved his defense by being restricted to one position, the same is likely with Morel. His best defensive position in the majors was second base, his main position in the minors. Although it is useful to have a utility player that can fill in at several positions, very few are like Zobrist, who could excel at several of them. And personally, I would rather have a really good second baseman, than average utility player. And he brings several things to the table that most fans feel the Cubs are lacking. Exceptional speed. Exceptional arm. Better than average power at a position that seldom provides power. And an enthusiasm that would be helpful if it rubbed off on the rest of the team.
I would love to sign Correa, Turner or Bogaerts if the price fits the budget. But I don't think that either Hoerner at short or Morel at second would leave the Cubs with gaping holes at the positions.
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It is interesting that Morel has become the invisible man in the off season discussions. He played an adequate defensive second base, whild slugging .433 and OPS of .741. If he were another team's free agent this year, there would be a clamor of fans rooting for the Cubs to sign him. There is reason to believe that, just as Happ greatly improved his defense by being restricted to one position, the same is likely with Morel. His best defensive position in the majors was second base, his main position in the minors. Although it is useful to have a utility player that can fill in at several positions, very few are like Zobrist, who could excel at several of them. And personally, I would rather have a really good second baseman, than average utility player. And he brings several things to the table that most fans feel the Cubs are lacking. Exceptional speed. Exceptional arm. Better than average power at a position that seldom provides power. And an enthusiasm that would be helpful if it rubbed off on the rest of the team.
I would love to sign Correa, Turner or Bogaerts if the price fits the budget. But I don't think that either Hoerner at short or Morel at second would leave the Cubs with gaping holes at the positions.
Actually, Morel played very little second base in the minors.
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Actually, Morel played very little second base in the minors.
His speed isn’t really all that exceptional either.
Morel does have a chance to be a useful player, and you have to love his attitude. But he has a long way to go to prove he can be an everyday player on a good team, and I don’t think most Cubs fans would be clamoring for the Cubs to sign him if he were a FA playing for somebody else.
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For me, Morel is a classic utility guy. That’s probably his value in these days of a 4/5 man bench.
Keep in mind that pitchers started to figure him out after his hot start—batted .194 after the break, albeit with some continued power.
I don’t know, maybe he’ll be able to make some adjustments. Wouldn’t put it past him. But, see his upside as an average guy (aside from his versatility) and probably doesn’t reach that plateau. He’s a wait-and-see guy for me or trade bait if some club likes him more than that.
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That's my sense as well, Reb. But I hope he is able to make adjustments since he seems like the kind of personality you'd like to have on your roster.
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I think Ross is grooming him to be his Zobrist.
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Whether or not Christopher Morel could be a well-above average defensive 2nd baseman (and I believe he could become one in time), count me with DaveP as believing Morel could bring one helluva lot of value to the Cubs in the future.
There's a GOOD reason Brennen Davis and his buds at Iowa called Morel "The Electric Show." His tools are about as loud as Javy's at age 22/23.
Elite arm - at one point in the season, his arm rated among the strongest in MLB - 96mph average on all field throws, at least at one point.
Very fast - he was among the top outfield guys in pure sprint speed (up there with Buxton and Trout), but his anticipation and 1st step were not considered CF-ready (though his closing speed was excellent).
Light-tower power - we all saw the power he produced and when he squared it up, his exit velos have been in the 110 area.
While his BA and OBP etc were way down in the 2nd half, the league adjusted and some wear down would be expected as he's still raw for MLB and doesn't turn 24 until late June.
Morel may not be able to continually adapt and become a plus regular at any position; however, his tools are LOUD and there's almost NO WAY Cubs should trade him at this point! His upside potential is HIGH at some position (it's easy to see him at 3rd or 2nd), if he can't Zobrist.
And, about as important as anything else, by all accounts C Morel is a GREAT teammate! And, in the MLB's long season, that really matters, too!
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Cubs in on Conforto, accoring to MLBtraderumors.com
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/cubs-interested-in-michael-conforto-cody-bellinger.html
That's a tough one to assess. If the shoulder is OK he's probably still a good hitter - you'd expect closer to pre-'21 numbers. Lefty bat, obviously a huge need. It'd be nuts to count on him as a CF (pretty much a dumpster fire there), but it's another guy that can play anywhere in the outfield in a pinch. Especially with the DH the Cubs just need good hitters, especially LHBs. They need to sign multiple starter-quality position players and they have as much short-term money as they could need, so Conforto on a one or two-year deal may make sense.
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Im a Morel fan as well though I think he's a 2nd baseman or CFer.
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from MLB rumors
4. Cubs
First off, the Bleacher Creatures would absolutely love him at Wrigley. But this is about more than aesthetic fit. The Cubs seems to have some money to spend but might want to wait another year or two to make a splash on a free agent hitter. They also have a clear need for hitting. Bellinger could play center field -- or first base, really -- and bat in the middle of the order, giving him every opportunity to rebuild his value around baseball in one of the most high-profile situations in the sport. And the Cubs make sense as a multi-year play too, if Bellinger’s up for that. Seriously, he’d look so great in that uniform.
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same source
Nov. 25: Bellinger drawing serious interest
Eleven clubs, including the Astros, Cubs and Giants, have expressed interest in 27-year-old Cody Bellinger, non-tendered by the Dodgers earlier this month, according to a report from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman.
Bellinger is likely seeking a one-year deal after another lackluster season in which he hit .210/.265/.389 with 19 home runs over 144 games.
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Kodai Senga remains at the top of Hoyer’s shopping list according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
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I've seen comments where he prefers Padres Giants, Angels Rangers...no mention of Cubs
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I've seen comments where he prefers Padres Giants, Angels Rangers...no mention of Cubs
I've seen lots of pieces about what clubs are allegedly pursuing Senga but, aside from his agent saying couple of weeks ago that he prefers a big market club who can win, read nothing about Senga's actual personal preferences.
Curt, you have a link that Senga has said or indicated to somebody that he "prefers Padres, Giants, Angels, Rangers"?
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Rosenthal is reporting that Abreu prefers to go to a World Series contender and has interest from the Astros and Padres.
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Could explain the reported interest in Conforto.
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Too bad if that is true. Abrue is the perfect fit for the Cubs, as far as what they are looking for at first base.
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Effectively Wild had an interesting podcast where they brought on 3 hitting guys from the public sphere to discuss the issues with Bellinger. They thought it was kinda of 3 areas that here causing issues.
1) He had an ankle fracture that has caused issues with his lower body set-up and this affects timing. They aren't sure if it is pain causing him from getting to his 2019 set-up or if it is a mental issue.
2) The shoulder injury has affected how he holds the bat and it might have subtly changed where he come through the zone with bat.
3) Mental issues with the struggles
One guy suggested having him platoon to help with a load management situation so that he could return more to a 2019 level. They also talked about why the Dodgers weren't able to fix things. 1 of the guys, who has worked with MLB clubs, suggested is with a player of Bellinger's stature you don't want to be the guy that really messes up his swing and tanks his career, so some suggestions might be held back. If he was in the minor leagues you might offer more fixes because he isn't a former MVP.
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Blue, I'd kinda think that would depend a lot on the player. if a guy has an attitude of "4 years ago I was good, I'm not changing anything", I'm not sure I want to be the Cubs thinking they can fix him?
Or maybe he has an attitude of "2019 was fun, but I don't love being a .268-OBP guy. I want to get back to being good, what changes do you think could help me?"
*I'd have some of those ideas already analyzed, and suggest them to him, and see what he thinks.
*Maybe he'd say, "duh, the Dodgers suggested all those same things, I tried them all, and none of them actually worked, pass on you guys."
*Or maybe he'd say, "Man, that really makes sense. The Dodgers never explained it like that, I can see it, how soon can I get into your hit lab to start working on it?"
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Kodai Senga remains at the top of Hoyer’s shopping list according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
Not sure if Mooney and Sharma have said something in a different context. But their last article was Friday, and I'm not sure the article says that senga tops their shopping list.
https://theathletic.com/3930059/2022/11/25/cubs-offseason-kodai-senga-seiya-suzuki/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983https://theathletic.com/3930059/2022/11/25/cubs-offseason-kodai-senga-seiya-suzuki/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
"The Cubs are continuing to monitor a group of starting pitchers that includes Kodai Senga, according to sources familiar with the club’s planning." "The Cubs will not be frozen out of this process, but they don’t control it, either." "the Cubs aren’t going to jump out and totally reset the market for a World Series-winning pitcher nearing his 40th birthday (Verlander) or a two-time Cy Young Award winner who made 11 starts this year (deGrom) or a Scott Boras client coming off the best season of his life (Carlos Rodón)."
I think the word "monitor" is a much weaker phrase than "pursue".
The rest of the article has no real news, it's Sharma's kinda standard presentation:
1. The Cubs want arms plural
2. Hoyer and Sharma would like a good SS who's a good fielder.
Sharma and Mooney do have several phrasings suggesting a go-slow approach.
1. References to not "jump out and totally reset the market" for pitching.
2. And again regarding the SS's, "The Cubs probably won’t be stepping up to set the market on any of them. "
3. "Jed Hoyer’s front office also follows data-driven strategies that prioritize surplus value and long-term flexibility over big names and making a splash in the moment."
4. "This could be a long winter"
5. "...it wouldn’t be surprising if good free agents are still out there by the time Cubs Convention returns in mid-January."
Kind of gives a "monitor" rather than "pursue" vibe for not just Senga but for FA's in general.
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3 years at $19.5M per season for Abreu to the Astros. That’s an extra year that I didn’t see happening. Great pick up for the Astros!
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No loss with Abreu. That money can be better spent elsewhere.
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The number of players that can replace Willson’s production is decreasing, while Abreu may not be a huge loss. The path for improving the offense is more narrow.
Effectively Wild also continued about talking about hitting bad pitches and doing damage on them. One of the hitting guys did an article that looked at pitches that were closer to middle, middle than league average. 71% of Judge’s this year were on those pitches. That is slightly above average. The league leader wa Nimmo at 100%.
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How will Cubs off-season be perceived?
100% based on whether or not Cubs sign one of the 4 SSs.
If get one, off-season a success. If don’t, off-season a failure.
That will be the perception by the media and a large % of fans, whether warranted or not.
Cubs will bring in other guys for other needed spots, of course, but boils down to the SSs.
Hoyer knows that, so perhaps he’ll actually execute the plan successfully given the perception.
But, kinda thinking less than 50-50 chance he’ll pull it off. We’ll see.
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One of the 4 SSs is necessary but by no means sufficient. To be a success, Hoyer will have to get one of them plus starting pitching plus quality help at C, 1B, and CF. Not an easy task.
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Yeah, I know Cubs have other needs too.
One thing is what is needed. Another thing is the perception of whatever Cubs do or don’t do.
The latter is 100% based on the SSs.
Hard to see any plausible scenario in which Cubs don’t get one and the off-season is considered a success.
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The off season will be considered a success or failure depending upon how the team performs over the next three years or so.
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One thing that I wish existed would be something where you had a basic projection system and you could see what they difference in adding certain free agents would be or if you could just take last years season and what the difference in the offense would be if you removed Willson, 1B, 2B, CF and dropped in free agents.
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The off season will be considered a success or failure depending upon how the team performs over the next three years or so.
Judgments will be made before a pitch is even thrown.
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The key word is judgementS. I doubt very much that there will be a consensus.
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Dave, I think there will be a predominant consensus. And that will be "Hoyer failed, the Cubs didn't do enough, the Cubs didn't spend enough"
I doubt we need to wait till March to anticipate that!
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Dave, I think there will be a predominant consensus. And that will be "Hoyer failed, the Cubs didn't do enough, the Cubs didn't spend enough"
I doubt we need to wait till March to anticipate that!
Signing one of deGrom/Verlander/Rodon would be every bit as much a perception driver as one of the top SS.
If the Cubs are in a position where perception is their enemy, it's their own fault for tanking for two years despite being one of the most profitable franchises in sports. The reality is that the only way they can compete next year is by addressing many different weaknesses this winter - as constructed they're a pretty bad team. You need at least two impact bats (preferably LH), a CF, a TORP, an experienced closer, a catcher. Setting perception aside I'm not sure if it's even realistic to expect them to do that.
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One of the SSs is realistic.
Verlander or deGrom probably is not.
Rodon borderline realistic but can’t see Hoyer going big total dollars for a pitcher with injury history like Rodon.
Expectations are for one of the SSs.
Raised matter of perception of successful/unsuccessful off-season because wonder if this might have some actual influence on Hoyer. If he signs a SS, Cubs can claim a successful off-season. One might think that kind of perception benefits Hoyer in comparison to a no-SS unsuccessful perception off-season.
Maybe Hoyer never thinks in those terms, who knows, but hoping it influences him to the point that he actually signs one of these guys.
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Yes, that would be nice. Better to have them do the right thing for the wrong reason than not at all.
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Dave, I think there will be a predominant consensus. And that will be "Hoyer failed, the Cubs didn't do enough, the Cubs didn't spend enough"
I doubt we need to wait till March to anticipate that!
That's the spirit, craig!
I agree with the assessment that Hoyer should have overpaid by now for a FA, doesn't matter which one, just to serve notice that the Cubs are serious about contending. It could make all the difference in attracting one or two more of the top FA's.
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Rival execs expressing voluminous skepticism about the Cubs being serious buyers.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041/mlb-offseason-free-agency-survey-baseball-insiders-predictions-signings-trades
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Rival execs expressing voluminous skepticism about the Cubs being serious buyers.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041/mlb-offseason-free-agency-survey-baseball-insiders-predictions-signings-trades
Yeah, I saw that article. That's why I made the above comment. If this idea is being shared to agents and players, it cripples any attempt to build.
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Yeah, I saw that article. That's why I made the above comment. If this idea is being shared to agents and players, it cripples any attempt to build.
This is clearly the Cubs current rep in the business - rival execs are the ones who’d know. And you’re right, it will stay that way until they do something to change it. Ricketts has earned his reputation for frugality but it goes deeper than that. Theo didn’t have to prove his seriousness to anybody - he was a known quantity. Hoyer is not - he’s done nothing to convince any agent or rival exec that he’s a big fish. And while it’s neither here nor there, his extremely quiet demeanor and lack of presence doesn’t help in the perception department.
There’s one way to change all that, and one way only. The onus is on them to exercise that option.
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Bob Nightengale says the Cubs have strong interest in Christian Vasquez.
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Old news…
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Javier Baez is a player ESPN has identified as benefiting from a change of scenery. I can see the Cubs missing out on all 4 shortstops and trading for Baez as a door prize to keep the fans happy. With hoopla and a couple of impactless other adds, they can self claim a successful off-season.
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I plan to wait until management actually fails to make impactful moves before griping about their trying to save face.
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Javier Baez is a player ESPN has identified as benefiting from a change of scenery. I can see the Cubs missing out on all 4 shortstops and trading for Baez as a door prize to keep the fans happy. With hoopla and a couple of impactless other adds, they can self claim a successful off-season.
Sorry, that was a MLB link, not ESPN https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-candidates-heading-into-2023?partnerId=zh-20221201-771021-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20221201-771021-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=scQn9GbNsU27HCRiQ1c1bEklqN1CgqaPlYJexMCi7ovDh0NDav5ZYe9E%2FTB0Jeuq&bt_ts=1669905221050
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Heyman lists the Cubs as favorites for Swanson, FWIW.
He’s just one of a jillion SP names the Cubs have been linked with, but I’m vibing that the Cubs are going to sign Taillon for some reason. It just seems like a move this FO would make. I’d be fine with him on something like 4/$60 but you certainly can’t sell him as a TORP.
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Taillon would be my choice after Senga. It doesn't sound like the Cubs are shooting for a TORP.
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If I understand the definitions correctly, the only TORP free agents out there are Verlander and DeGrom. It doesn't sound like they are that interested in either at the reported prices, and I tend to agree with them.
I would like to see them acquire Senga, although there are a lot of other teams that also would like to sign him. The Cubs outbid everyone else when they signed Suzuki, and I suspect that they will do the same with Senga, if feel the price is worth it.
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Dave, Carlos Rodon would be the other guy. He's 29.
Any and every team would like a stud like that at his age. He could remain in his prime for many year. That's why Hoyer is afraid to even try to compete for him, why would a 29-year-old star choose the Cubs when he can go to any contender in the game and get paid a zillion?
Verlander will be 40. deGrom 35, coming off 15-game and 11-game seasons.
Agree, Hoyer seems unlikely to try to outbid everybody else for Rodon, or deGrom or Verlander.
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Rodon is indeed a top pitcher. But he has had more years as an injured pitcher than as an effective pitcher, and the risk is not inconsiderable.
I'm not sure why you say that Hoyer is afraid to compete for him. Is it not possible that he feels that he is merely not worth his asking price. For that matter, do we really know that he is not competing for him? I don't think that very many national reporters were forcasting that Suzuki coming to the Cubs. Some on this board even felt that Hoyer was not even trying to get him.
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Absolutely, Rodon has risk. The price for any top-end player is always higher, so higher risk. Rodon and Smyly and Senga all have risk that they won't be good or will get hurt. Inevitable that the better a pitcher is and the more he costs, the greater the risk in case you get nothing out of the money invested.
Boras pretty much always claims he has some "secret" bidder, so Hoyer may become that guy, who knows? But most likely Hoyer isn't pursuing the most elite guy on the pitching market. Sharma used "monitor" for Senga, not "pursue". In Rodon's case, I imagine Hoyer might at best be "monitoring", not "pursuing".
A guy of Rodon's caliber can get a zillion from any contending club that he'd like to sign with. For him to prefer the Cubs to the contenders, Hoyer would need to offer Zillion+20%. Why would Rodon otherwise sign with the Cubs if they don't offer 20% more than the powerhouse teams? Rodon will be risky and expensive at the zillion that he'll get from the contenders market; I'm doubtful that Hoyer wants to not only meet the market zillion plus also supersede it by an additional 20%.
If I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised. :)
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Cubs unable to get Rylan Bannon thru waivers.
Claimed by Astros.
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There goes the 2023 season.
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Unless, of course, the Astros put Rylan Bannon on waivers, and the Cubs reclaim him again.
We can at least dream.
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If the Cubs plan was to do their usual bargain basement shopping, it's increasingly looking like they picked the wrong year for it.
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And just now...
Sources: #Cubs and #Phillies among teams showing active interest in free agent Dansby Swanson, ahead of next week's winter meetings in San Diego.--Morosi
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Dansby Swanson: If rumors are true that the Braves didn’t accede to his $140 million counter — the same deal Trevor Story and Javier Baez got — it’s obvious why some Atlanta people are pessimistic. Still, he is from Georgia. Favorites: 1. Cubs; 2. Braves.--Heyman
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I would dearly love for the Cubs to get either Correa or Turner. My guess is that both will get outrageously huge contracts (in both money and term) but I would be fine with me if the Cubs go out on a limb for either. Nevertheless, I would not complain if they end up with Swanson (or Bogaerts).
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Trying to spread the (theoretically) available dollars across our needs, it would be extremely helpful if we could find a cheap solution for CF. Having to budget $10+ for the likes of Bellinger or Kiermaier is a killer.
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Trying to spread the (theoretically) available dollars across our needs, it would be extremely helpful if we could find a cheap solution for CF. Having to budget $10+ for the likes of Bellinger or Kiermaier is a killer.
An Arizona trade is the most obvious way to do that. The question is what you give up.
I don't know that I agree with the central premise though, even if I'm agnostic about Bellinger and downright atheist about Kiermaier. There's no way the Cubs should be in a position where they have to conserve on short-term spending to that extent. Especially when you consider the money Hoyer was supposedly "banking" by not spending it the last two years. Realistically it's not like they're going to sign all of Correa/Bogaerts, a TORP, an established closer - it's just not gonna happen.
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If you assume they're going to spend shy of the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they've got at most about $93 to spend.
Swanson - 22
Conforto - 15
Vazquez - 9
Bellinger - 12
SP 1 - 18
SP 2 - 8
RP 1 - 5
RP 2 - 3
That's 92. It goes quickly.
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That's not as assumption one should have to make.
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No, but it's realistic.
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Besides first basemen Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, the Cubs also have a level of interest in Matt Carpenter as a left-handed hitter who remade his swing to post a 1.138 OPS in 47 games this year with the Yankees. Carpenter, 37, would bring credibility after notching three All-Star selections with the St. Louis Cardinals, playing in 14 postseason series throughout his career and showing the willingness to reinvent himself with the help of people like Joey Votto.--Sharma and Mooney
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I'd be fine with adding Carpenter.
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Agreed.
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I hated Edmonds as a Cardinal. I really liked him as a Cub.
I hated Carpenter as a Cardinal (but not as much as Edmonds). I suspect that if he performed well at all, I would like him as a Cub.
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LOL Yeah. That's the level of FA I imagine we'll get. Maybe we can get Chris Carpenter to come out of retirement, too.
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Less than zero interest in Carpenter…
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Sounds like Bogaerts may become a Cub. If so, I wonder whether it's a certainty he would play SS rather than 3B.
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Sounds like Bogaerts may become a Cub. If so, I wonder whether it's a certainty he would play SS rather than 3B.
I'm highly skeptical of the first part of that, but the buzz has been that he's insistent on staying at SS. I would add "for now" to that.
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Is Mandy Pepen (Red Sox reporter)
CONFIRMED:
The #Cubs are very interested in Xander Bogaerts.
TODAY:
They have not yet submitted an offer, they are expected to do so in the next few hours...
#MLB
Boras has said he’d play SS.
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Question: Who would you prefer, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson?
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Bogaerts easily.
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Bogaerts. But the question is more likely “who would you prefer, Bogaerts at 7/210 or Swanson at 6/140?” It might still be Bogaerts but that’s a lot tougher to answer. Bogaerts is almost two years older and already borderline defensively at SS.
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Bagaerts has batted .289 or better for 5 straight seasons, with OBP .360 or better, and OPS .860 or better in four of them.
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Apoligize if this has already been discussed, trying to get back in here, Reynolds apparently has requested a trade, what could get him? Unfornuate Canario injury.
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Apoligize if this has already been discussed, trying to get back in here, Reynolds apparently has requested a trade, what could get him? Unfornuate Canario injury.
The Pirates would have to actually trade him, first of all. Even then they’d have to be willing to do so in the division, and he’d cost a lot. Seems like a long shot to me.
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Reynolds was never a Top 100 prospect and basically jumped from his AA season to a regular in majors (2 weeks in AAA) the next season.
PCA figures to start 2023 in AA.
Could see PCA in majors in 2024 (albeit younger than Reynolds when he made the jump).
Just don’t see strategy of spending a bunch in dollars or trade capital for a CF, even for a quality guy like Reynolds or Nimmo with PCA on the way. Granted, PCA not a sure thing but just seems to make sense to acquire a capable caretaker CFer for 2024, not a pricey long-term guy, given all of Cubs needs.
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https://www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/source-chicago-cubs-and-curtis-terry-nearing-free-agent-deal
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Apoligize if this has already been discussed, trying to get back in here, Reynolds apparently has requested a trade, what could get him? Unfornuate Canario injury.
Pirates have a hefty price on him. I believe the Marlins have tried and failed multiple times.
Question: Who would you prefer, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson?
Bogaerts, price doesn’t matter. He can easily switch to third and you can move Nico back to SS in a couple of years.
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Bogaerts. But the question is more likely “who would you prefer, Bogaerts at 7/210 or Swanson at 6/140?” It might still be Bogaerts but that’s a lot tougher to answer. Bogaerts is almost two years older and already borderline defensively at SS.
It's not tougher to answer for me. Still Bogaerts by a lot.
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At this point, I would be happy with a signing. Any signing. More and more I read that agents, players, other gm's do not see the Cubs as major players and no threat and no place a winner wants to go. Changing the culture starts at the top. Demonstrate that we are working toward being a strong competitive team. Who is taking us seriously if we're looking at Matt Carpenter and Terry Curtis?
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It's not tougher to answer for me. Still Bogaerts by a lot.
That’s fair. I just think the fact that you’re going to be paying Bogaerts until he’s minimum three years older and he’s going to be playing at least half the contract off shortstop (or as a subpar shortstop) is a not inconsiderable factor. You’re going to be getting Swanson for a lot more of his peak than Bogaerts, and his defense and baserunning value will be much higher. Just a matter of how good you think his peak is, and how well you think Bogaerts will age.
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Bob Nightengale says Bogaerts is @Cubs top priority but that they’re also in on Correa.
Jesse Rogers says Swanson leaving ATL is “50-50, and Cubs chances are close to that”.
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Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Jameson Taillon market is deep, but sources tab the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles among the teams to watch.
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Thanks, Dusty. Kind of fun to be in all of those SS rumors. Well, I guess Turner not so much. I wonder who the competition is for some of these?
I've been assuming the Cubs would need to overpay by 10% or 20%, by $20-60M, relative to other team offers, in order to get good players to choose us over good contenders. But maybe that isn't going to prove true in the SS derby? Maybe the Cubs can match the top bid and get a guy; or outbid the next best offer by only $5-10M, they could still get a guy?
Dodgers: Not sure how hard they are in for Turner? They already have a ginormous payroll, and I don't know how much that's scheduled to have built-in inflation. They've had some other priorities (CF, Verlander, relief...). In a recent interview, Roberts suggested going with Gavin Lux.
-Might the Yankees stick with Oswald Peraza and his stellar defense, and lots of potential? He had over .400 OBP in his small-sample with Yankees, and hit 20 HR.
-The Braves seem to have had $100M to offer Swanson, but seem to be fine with passing on him at much higher price. Are they going to go spend double that on Correa or Bogaert? Their minor league player of the year is a shortstop.
-Houston has a new young star SS. They're not in.
Phillies yes. But otherwise, I wonder if the competition isn't really necessarily going to be that shocking? Maybe nobody's going to blow the Cubs out of the water? And maybe over a long deal, the Cubs will seem as poised to be in the playoffs every year as most of the other bidders?
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Tuner has met with the Padres twice and the Phillies seem to be really interested.
The loser of the Judge sweepstakes (Giants/Yankees) has been mentioned as a landing spot for Corerra. Twins are also in on him.
I think the Red Sox are also in play for Xander.
Braves are Swanson or bust from the rumors.
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How clear is it that the Giants are closer to contention than the Cubs? Is it automatically true that Correa would opt for the Giants if it came down to similar money from the Giants and Cubs?
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Suzuki chose to come to the Cubs rather than the Padres, and when he was interviewed afterwards, he mentioned several reasons, but none of them overwhelming money.
It obviously varies from player to player, but I doubt that very many players would refuse to sign a 6 year contract with the Cubs merely because they are not a current contender, especially since it has not been very long since they were a constant contender. The Texas Rangers do not seem to be running into that problem.
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How clear is it that the Giants are closer to contention than the Cubs? Is it automatically true that Correa would opt for the Giants if it came down to similar money from the Giants and Cubs?
Agree. If the Yankees get Judge, and Correa is playing the Giants, Cubs, and Twins against each other, it's not obvious that the Cubs need to be an obviously inferior landing-spot, in terms of either future years of contending, or financially either.
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How clear is it that the Giants are closer to contention than the Cubs? Is it automatically true that Correa would opt for the Giants if it came down to similar money from the Giants and Cubs?
I think it's pretty damn clear not only that they're closer to serious contention, but more serious about doing what it takes to achieve and sustain it.
None of which is to say a FA wouldn't choose the Cubs anyway if they offered more money. But that's part of the problem.
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The Cubs and Giants have similar residual WAR and current salary obligations. I think it's an open question which organization is better poised to contend.
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The Cubs and Giants have similar residual WAR and current salary obligations. I think it's an open question which organization is better poised to contend.
ZIPS has the Giants on 9 more wins next season as currently constructed. I really don’t think this is even an argument. But if the Cubs want to make it one, they need to prove they’re serious about spending like a big club. That’s really the only way to move the needle for them in terms of FA perception at this point.
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Are the Giants intending to sign 2 of the remaining biggest tickets, from among Judge, Rodon, and Correa?
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Are the Giants intending to sign 2 of the remaining biggest tickets, from among Judge, Rodon, and Correa?
I don’t think they’ll get both of Correa and Judge, but I think they get one or the other. They have a lot of competition on Rodon but if they lose him they’ll sign one of the other next-tier SPs I expect.
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Thanks. I was curious whether they assume they'd spend whatever it takes to keep Correa, AND spend whatever it takes to get either Judge or Correa.
I'd assume Judge-Correa-Rodon-Bogaerts are the four biggest tickets left, so for SanFran to get half of them would require some aggressive spending.
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I think they see their pursuit of Judge/Correa and Rodon as independent of the other, but Judge/Correa is an either or. If they missed on both they’d probably go all-in on Bogaerts and Swanson.
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
Following up,industry sources said the north siders pursuit of a top shortstop had them meeting with Carlos Correa in San Diego.They had a sit down with Xander Bogaerts ten days ago.stories at
@670TheScore and @WatchMarquee
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SAN DIEGO — The (shortstop) games have begun.
The Phillies have signed free agent shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Turner was one of the four big shortstops in the free agent market, along with Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. The Cubs are expected to be active in the market this winter.
Turner hit .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs, 27 stolen bases, 100 RBI and a 4.9 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) in 2022. The 29-year-old has a lifetime slash line of .302/.355/.487 with 124 home runs, 230 stolen bases and 29.7 WAR.
The move by the Phillies should accelerate the market for shortstop — it sets the value and teams will be looking to pounce on the remaining available targets.
For the Phillies, they showed their aggressive nature once again, jumping on one of the top free agents in the market, a year after signing Kyle Schwarber and Nicholas Castellanos. They grabbed the last playoff spot in the NL and reached the World Series in 2022, falling to the Astros.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/sources-cubs-have-made-pitch-to-top-free-agent-shortstops/
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Jed Hoyer says Cubs have "a lot" of offers out to free agents, not very specific beyond that.
Hoyer: "We'll continue to make offers, whether things come to fruition or not. You never never quite know, but it won't be through a lack of putting offers out there and trying."
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
#Cubs among the teams talking with #Athletics on Sean Murphy. The availability of Murphy and Danny Jansen in trade explains why Willson Contreras has yet to sign. @MLBNetwork
Nice to finally see the Cubs linked to the only good non-Contreras catcher available this offseason.
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Multiple MLB sources just told me Tom Ricketts and the Ricketts family have told team president Jed Hoyer that he has a green light to spend what he needs to spend to turn the team around. That lines up w/@GDubCub reporting that the #Cubs met offsite with Carlos Correa today.--Kaplan
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I’m a big no on Murphy if it takes PCA to get him. And I don’t know why the A’s would give him up for anybody else we have.
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“The Cubs are now next up,” Morosi said on Cubs 360 Monday evening. “Once Verlander went off the board, deGrom as well, this is now the class of pitching that I’ve been hearing the Cubs are playing in. Sources tell me Chris Bassitt is someone they’ve talked about, Koudai Senga as well.
“And remember, Senga’s really important. He’s coming over from Japan — therefore there’s no draft pick compensation attached to him. Also, no posting fee. He’s a straight international free agent — he was able to qualify for that.
“So when you think about that, it really allows the Cubs to be aggressive in this next group. There’s a lot of teams that want pitching now and whether it’s Bassitt or Senga, now it’s the Cubs’ turn to make a splash.”
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Per @GDubCub who is in San Diego for MLB Winter Meetings, the @Cubs had an offsite meeting today with Jed Hoyer + David Ross + others making their pitch to Carlos Correa & Scott Boras. Per Gordon: “This market could move quickly. More quickly than many first thought it would.”
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Not that I believe this for a minute, but ain't the off-season fun.
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
The Cubs' interest in the free-agent shortstop market has been no secret, but according to a source, there is a scenario in which Chicago could sign two of the three remaining star shortstops, likely Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
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David Kaplan @thekapman
Multiple MLB sources just told me Tom Ricketts and the Ricketts family have told team president Jed Hoyer that he has a green light to spend what he needs to spend to turn the team around. That lines up w/@GDubCub reporting that the #Cubs met offsite with Carlos Correa today.
I'll believe it when I see it.
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The Cubs' interest in the free-agent shortstop market has been no secret, but according to a source, there is a scenario in which Chicago could sign two of the three remaining star shortstops, likely Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
JeffH is their source! He suggested that weeks ago. :):).
A 3-shortstop infield of Hoerner-Dansby-Xander could be really superb defensively. Happ and Suzuki are excellent. Imagine PCA going nuts, and by August he's called up as your long-term CF. You could have just a superb defensive roster infield and outfield.
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...“And remember, Senga’s really important. He’s coming over from Japan — therefore there’s no draft pick compensation attached to him. Also, no posting fee. He’s a straight international free agent — he was able to qualify for that....
That's fascinating, I hadn't realized there was no posting fee. Seiya had one, $14.7M. Knocking $15 off the bill might make a difference.
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David Kaplan @thekapman
Multiple MLB sources just told me Tom Ricketts and the Ricketts family have told team president Jed Hoyer that he has a green light to spend what he needs to spend to turn the team around. That lines up w/@GDubCub reporting that the #Cubs met offsite with Carlos Correa today.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Yeah, there’s not enough salt in the world to take that with. All this talk is just that, talk. The burden of proof is squarely on Ricketts and the FO to prove the worm really has turned. Maybe it has, but going crazy thanks to a few off-the-record rumors makes no sense.
If we get any of the big four SS and a SP from the Senga-Taillon-Walker tier, I’d consider that a big win - especially if they find a couple of lefty bats either through FA or a trade. Let’s not get greedy considering the history.
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Not that I believe this for a minute, but ain't the off-season fun.
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
The Cubs' interest in the free-agent shortstop market has been no secret, but according to a source, there is a scenario in which Chicago could sign two of the three remaining star shortstops, likely Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
Is this before or after we sign Judge?
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David Kaplan @thekapman
Multiple MLB sources just told me Tom Ricketts and the Ricketts family have told team president Jed Hoyer that he has a green light to spend what he needs to spend to turn the team around. That lines up w/@GDubCub reporting that the #Cubs met offsite with Carlos Correa today.
I'll believe it when I see it.
To me that would include a ultimatum. Sign one of these or else.
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Cubs resign Brailyn Marquez.
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Good. Now just retain Kohl Franklin through the draft.
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Morosi just stated on MLBN that the Cubs met with Correa yesterday.
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A's are reportedly looking for major league players for Murphy and they typically have different valuations on prospects/players. They could use a second basemen, so Madrigal+ could make some sense for them.
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Heh, they already have a Madrigal. His name is Tony Kemp.
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I don't think Madrigal would be the best player in the deal, but Kemp is 31 so getting a younger version might interest them. They could platoon as well. They traded Olson last year for Pache and Langeliers, so they just make weird trades. I really don't want them trading him to the Cardinals because it will be like Yepez, Donovan and Dakota Hudson for him.
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Sharma/Mooney article mentioned Hoyer being interested in Tucker Barnhart. In a career year long ago, he once had an OPS+ over 90, but it's been 5 years since over 80. So, bad hitter for sure, and as a no-power guy he's also been sub-.300 OBP in two of last three years.
But he has won gold gloves. So maybe under the punt-offense, defense-is-all-that-matters view at catcher, maybe he's a good fit with Hoyer's priorities?
Q: Does gold-glover reflect what Hoyer wants from a catcher, or maybe not? Not sure, but I kinda think of a gold-glove catcher being a quick strong-armed guy who does physically impressive things like pouncing on bunts, blocking the wildest of pitches (the Red's staff through lots of wild ones...), and making quick rocket-throws to nail base-stealers. A guy might be awesome at all of that physical stuff, without necessarily also being great at coaching and counseling/nurturing pitchers or being a genius pitch-caller. Not saying he isn't great at that stuff too, I just have no idea.
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I don't think Madrigal would be the best player in the deal, but Kemp is 31 so getting a younger version might interest them. They could platoon as well. They traded Olson last year for Pache and Langeliers, so they just make weird trades. I really don't want them trading him to the Cardinals because it will be like Yepez, Donovan and Dakota Hudson for him.
I wonder how much value Morel would have to them. He also seems to fall in the category of player they like to target but actually has some upside.
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I wonder how much value Morel would have to them. He also seems to fall in the category of player they like to target but actually has some upside.
That's a possibility I would consider. I can't think Madrigal will be much interest to them (or anybody).
Barnhart? Woof.
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Barnhart? Woof.
Yeah, that would be awful.
The free agent catcher class is not good behind Contreras. Unless they get Vazquez or maybe Narvaez, I don't think there's any real reason to displace PJ Higgins with a free agent.
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I’m disappointed they’re not connected with Narvaez, seemingly. A decent player who checks a lot of boxes.
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I’m disappointed they’re not connected with Narvaez, seemingly. A decent price player who checks a lot of boxes.
Not the least of which we steal him from a division rival.
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Boras is such a wit:
Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
Boras on the Chicago Cubs spending: "The Tom Tom (Ricketts) drum is finally beating again."
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Ross played with Bogaerts in Boston. it would be fun if there were some personal connection that would be appealing to him, that would make him want to join the Cubs.
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Boras is a jackass.
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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Breaking: Bellinger to Cubs
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Heyman says Bellinger to Cubs.
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1 year, $17.5 million per Passan.
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Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a one-year, $17.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
$17.5 would be quite the discount.
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Love it.
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Well…. It’s only money.
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https://dodgerblue.com/watch-dodgers-free-agent-cody-bellinger-workout-oklahoma-state-jackson-matt-holliday/2022/12/03/ (https://dodgerblue.com/watch-dodgers-free-agent-cody-bellinger-workout-oklahoma-state-jackson-matt-holliday/2022/12/03/)
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Interesting side element to this is the Bellinger-Correa feud. Maybe it doesn’t matter with this much money involved, but you’d have to think the Cubs wouldn’t sign Bellinger first if they thought it mattered, and that they still had a shot with Correa.
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Wow. I hadn't imagined a guy who's stacked two such awful seasons offensively would get that much. Hard for me to get OBP = .240 and .265 out of my head....
But hope springs eternal. We'll now be set up with a terrific defensive outfield, and hopefully be bounces back and becomes not-bad as a hitter, maybe even good again.
Hopefully he's ready to fix something and somehow get OBP back up over .300?
No shift should help.
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Q: Why doesn't Carlos Correa involve a comp pick? Are one-year guys not subject to comp picks, or something?
I ask both because that's a factor for Correa, but now it becomes relevant for Bellinger. *IF* he was to hypothetically have a good year and become a free agent, would the Cubs be able to garnish a draft pick for him? Or because it's a one-year deal, is that not a possibility?
It would be kinda fun to get an extra draft pick from this, no, if that's possible?
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Craig, you would have to make the Qualifying Offer to Bellinger. If you did that and he signed elsewhere, the Cubs would get a pick.
The reason Correa doesn't give the Twins compensation is that no player can be made the QO more than once and Correa got the QO last year.
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David Kaplan follows
Daniel Greenberg
@ChiSportUpdates
Chicago Cubs manager David Ross, first-base coach Mike Napoli, and former Cubs pitcher Jon Lester have all talked to free-agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts about playing for the Cubs.
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Perfect! Thanks Jeff. The can't-QO-twice rule that I didn't appreciate.
Heh heh, it would be kind of an ideal situation if Bellinger had a successful season; helped the rapidly-improving Cubs win the division; also bridged the gap to PCA; and then ended up netting us an extra draft pick afterwards as frosting.
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Wow. I hadn't imagined a guy who's stacked two such awful seasons offensively would get that much. Hard for me to get OBP = .240 and .265 out of my head....
But hope springs eternal. We'll now be set up with a terrific defensive outfield, and hopefully be bounces back and becomes not-bad as a hitter, maybe even good again.
Hopefully he's ready to fix something and somehow get OBP back up over .300?
No shift should help.
No shift should help. Being on a 1 year deal may help. He will bring solid D even if his bat is still bad. He will be a place holder for PCA or one of our other prospects for a season. I believe since he has never been tendered a qualifying offer we would get compensation after the season if he signed somewhere else. There are a lot of solid reasons for this signing so I am happy to see it. With that said I don't have any great confidence that he will be closer to the 2019 version than the 2022 version.
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I’m grasping here but sometimes a walk year is a motivating force for a player.
Bellinger entered 2022 season two years away from free agency.
Now, he’ll be a pending free agent post-2023.
Not saying he was an unmotivated player in 2022, but pending free agency tends to focus the mind perhaps.
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Q: Why doesn't Carlos Correa involve a comp pick? Are one-year guys not subject to comp picks, or something?
I ask both because that's a factor for Correa, but now it becomes relevant for Bellinger. *IF* he was to hypothetically have a good year and become a free agent, would the Cubs be able to garnish a draft pick for him? Or because it's a one-year deal, is that not a possibility?
It would be kinda fun to get an extra draft pick from this, no, if that's possible?
Bellinger is one of those guys the shift rules should help. While his peripherals mostly suggest his awfulness has been no mirage, his low BABIP suggests he lost a lot of singles to the shift. At the very least his defense in CF is solid, and he can play some 1B too. And it’s only money. If he’s great you get a comp pick out of it, if he sucks again he walks and you start this all over again next winter if PCA isn’t ready to go.
The flipside of that is if you’re serious about contending next season, you can’t rely on Bellinger to alleviate the alarming lack of offense from the left side. You need another impact lefty bat and you can’t rely on Mervis for it. Even if the Cubs get one of the elite SS that hole would still need to be filled.
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How could Hoyer not be smarter than Friedman? :):)
Agree, hope but no real confidence that he'll be able to hit.
If Bellinger improves a lot, he could blossom into a lefty Patrick Wisdom? Bellinger will need to improve a lot to approach Wisdom's level, though, so maybe that's being too wishful?
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How could Hoyer not be smarter than Friedman? :):)
Agree, hope but no real confidence that he'll be able to hit.
If Bellinger improves a lot, he could blossom into a lefty Patrick Wisdom? Bellinger will need to improve a lot to approach Wisdom's level, though, so maybe that's being too wishful?
There’s a lot of belief that the Dodgers are being moderate (for them) in spending this winter to prepare for a record-shattering pursuit of Ohtani next winter. We’ll see if it plays out that way. Their parting ways with Bellinger doesn’t mean that Friedman thinks he’s crocked for good, necessarily.
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My assumption was regarding Reynolds was that a "medicore" year with only two years of control the trade price would come down a bit and the Cubs have excess outfielders. Also PCA wasl ikely was 2025 ish....but I hear you all
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....The flipside of that is if you’re serious about contending next season, you can’t rely on Bellinger to alleviate the alarming lack of offense from the left side. You need another impact lefty bat and you can’t rely on Mervis for it. Even if the Cubs get one of the elite SS that hole would still need to be filled.
Deeg, I'm not sure the Cubs are in position to be overly prioritized on lefty-bat. Nor that they should be. I kinda feel like they're "contending" aspirations are kinda break-right conditional anyway, something to hope for but not expect? Possible but not probable?
Suppose things go the way the Cubs might like, and they sign Bogaerts, Vasquez, and Senga. It *might* be possible to win the division with that roster; it also *might* be possible you're a lottery team, selling not buying come July. Who knows?
But *IF* such a hypothetical roster was hypothetically contending, that would probably only happen if uncertain guys like Bellinger and Mervis do turn out to be variably good. *IF* those guys prove pretty good, then you could have Bellinger, Mervis, Happ, and Vasquez as lefty bats. I don't think that's prohibitively few? Granted, having both Bellinger and Mervis be hypothetically solid and productive is probably wishful thinking; but contending is probably contingent on guys like that clicking anyway, isn't it?
I imagine another scenario would have the Cubs having a winning season, and feeling like they are contending already. Then you could maybe trade for a lefty DH at the deadline, even if you don't have that guy in April?
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Vasquez (Vazquez) is a RHH.
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Vasquez (Vazquez) is a RHH.
Oops! Too bad. For some reason I'd just been assuming he was a LH platoon complement for Gomes.
Heh heh, that's where might Tucker Barnhart can be the lefty platoon guy!!! :):).
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He might have better luck if he tried batting right-handed.
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Is the draft lottery tonight?
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Is the draft lottery tonight?
I think tomorrow night?
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It's tonight
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#13.
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When you are on a hot streak, everything breaks for you.
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1) Pirates (2)
2) Nationals
3) Tigers (6)
4) Rangers (7)
5) Twins (13)
6) A's
7) Reds
8 ) Royals
9) Rockies
10) Marlins
11) Angels
12) D-Backs
13) Cubs (-1)
14) Red Sox
15) White Sox
16) Giants
17) Orioles
18) Brewers
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A’s fell from top 3 to 6…
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https://theathletic.com/3976868/2022/12/06/cubs-sign-cody-bellinger/
deeg, youll like this. In the back half of this article, the Dodgers reporter suggests Friedman may want to replace Bellinger with your friend Kiermaier. Elsewhere I'd read suggestion that they were thinking to replace Trea Turner with Gavin Lux.
Dodgers fans might not love that.
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I’ll believe that when I see it…
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Bruce Levine just said on the Marquee Sports Network:
“Earlier in the day we were hearing Jameson Tailion was close with the #Cubs and that would be a longer term deal.”
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In addition to Cody Bellinger, Chicago has emerged as a potential landing spot for Dominic Smith. The Cubs discussed a potential Smith trade with the Mets this past summer, and there have been talks between them and his reps at the Winter Meetings.--Anthony DiComo
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Cubs making push for free-agent right-hander Jameson Taillon, sources tell me and @stephenjnesbitt
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Maybe this will happen tonight?
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Cubs are closing in on a deal with Jameson Taillon, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal and @stephenjnesbitt were first to report that Chicago was making a push for the starter.
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And this:
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
Taillon camp meeting with Cubs at this hour to try to finalize a deal, sources tell me and
@JonHeyman
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Looking at what our pitching staff did in the second half, I have to ask, is he that much better than what we have? Not sure.
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Taillon is not a draft-comp guy, I think?
Why did the Yankees not offer on him? Did they think $19/1 was too much?
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BTW: If Bellinger regains his MVP type value and doesn't give the Cubs a chance to resign him, that's classless. If he doesn't, see ya, bud.
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BTW: If Bellinger regains his MVP type value and doesn't give the Cubs a chance to resign him, that's classless. If he doesn't, see ya, bud.
He’ll give them a chance to offer him the biggest check. Realistically you can’t expect any more than that.
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Maybe this will happen tonight?
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Cubs are closing in on a deal with Jameson Taillon, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal and @stephenjnesbitt were first to report that Chicago was making a push for the starter.
You heard it here first.
And if it’s 5/90 that too, LOL.
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Sharma piling on the “probably Swanson” bus.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
The Cubs are in agreement on a contract with free agent pitcher Jameson Taillon on a 4 year, $68 million deal sources tell
@JeffPassan
and me.
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The Cubs got Taillon for less than the Phillies paid for Walker? That seems like a pretty good deal.
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Surprised they could get Taillon for that, given what other SP are getting in this market. That contract shouldn’t take us out of the running for anybody (including Senga).
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Dansby Swanson is the name to watch for the Cubs right now, according to Jon Morosi on Marquee. Swanson is the "most likely" to come to the Cubs.
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$16M/ year for 4 years seems like a terrific team friendly deal in this market. He is 31 so he shouldn’t be completely awful at 35. Unless he blows out his arm, which is a potential issue for any pitcher, he should be competitive for all 4 years.
The Cubs “smart spending” is 2-2 thus far. If they can snag Senga and one of the 3 remaining SS (I’m betting it will be Swanson as he will be the least expensive and he wants to be here as his wife plays soccer here) along with the typical role players I would say it has been a successful off season that will carry us toward competing in 2024 and possibly 2023. I would still like at least 1 corner IF and a Catcher but beggars can’t be choosers.
Happ, Suzuki and Bellinger in the OF
Wisdom, SS, Hoerner and Mervis in the IF
Gomes at C
Hendricks, Taillon, Stroman, Senga, Steele, Thompson, Wesneski
Bullpen of whoever.
Bench of Morel, Madrigal, Bote, Velasquez.
I would try to trade Madrigal back to the Sox who need a 2B and seemingly loved him. I still think he has value if he stays healthy but he’s not starting for us if we sign a SS.
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He's been nice solid average or a little better. Using ERA+, he was flat 100 on the nose for each of his Yankee seasons! How statistically unlikely is that to be dead average back-to-back? Was better than average in 3 of 4 Pittsburgh seasons.
1. Pretty hittable guy, >8 hits/9 in every season of his career.
2. ~8 K/9, so not a big K-guy but not bad.
3. Huge HR-factory. 50HR over the last two seasons.
4. Very low walks. 2.2 BB/9, very nice. K/BB 3.7 over career, and even better 4.7 last year.
5. With the low walks, has been a very favorable WHIP guy, 1.1 last year, 1.2 career, only once over 1.21.
6. Has been very consistent. His H/K/BB/IP ratios have been very consistent since his 2nd season. Probably know what you're getting, a nice solid strike-throwing mid-rotation guy.
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I can see the Cubs seeing Taillon as a good fit, and doing better for us than he has in past.
1. HR-factor: Part of his 50 HR over two seasons probably results from RHP in Yankee stadium. Those HR's ought to drop, probably by a lot, in Wrigley. Especially so in the spring, which might enable him to get off to a good start.
2. Hittable pitch-to-contact: Hoyer is all-in on defense. So if we have a terrific defensive OF, and a really good defensive infield, and have good defensive catchers, some of the hits in Pittsburgh should be outs with our defense. And some of the Yankee-stadium HR hits should be Suzuki catches in Wrigley. So I'd think his hits should decline a bit? If HR's and hits both go down some, and his walks stay as low, you could have a nice guy with ERA 3.5 or lower, rather than the ≥3.9 guy he's been.
3. Cubs love their pitching infrastructure, perhaps for good reason? It's possible that they see some possibilities to make him even a little bit better?
4. They've kicked out Willson! With the magic of Gomes, per Cubs theory isn't he supposed to mysteriously make every pitcher better?
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Some twitter buzz about the Cubs being in on Sean Manaea, which is kind of a meh prospect.
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I read Sharma’s article where he talked about adding Swanson and compared the defense to 2016 team. Ok. Fine. Where is the 2016 offense coming from? Building the next .500 team to improve attendance and ratings.
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Talk about beating a dead horse…
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Lets please get Bogaerts or Correa.
**If** swanson is hypothetically the last starter added, I agree with Blue that the offense could really be horrible. [Granted, Of course who knows, baseball is an unpredictable game, and if several things click right, there's an upside to have a mediocre offense.]
But lets please go get Bogaerts or Correa. Need all the offense we can get.
Using Fangraphs projections:
Swanson: .247/.309/.413/.722, 22HR, wRC+ 104
Bellinger: .224/.297/.405/.702, 19HR, wRC+ 97
Gomes: .246/.290/.396/.686, 11HR, wRC+ 92
Wisdom: .206/.290/.409/.699, 19HR, wRC+ 96
Fangraphs isn't always right, of course. But that's projecting a lot of mediocre-sub-average players on offense.
Lot of really low OBP guys. Multiple sub-.300 easy outs makes it hard to sustain team offense.
Return to HR-or-nothing profile that can be frustrating to watch. Please get Bogaerts or Correa instead.
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I read Sharma’s article where he talked about adding Swanson and compared the defense to 2016 team. Ok. Fine. Where is the 2016 offense coming from? Building the next .500 team to improve attendance and ratings.
A resurgent Bellinger, a healthy Suzuki, continued improvement from Swanson and several other “what ifs”.
100 years ago after the Cubs won the division in 1984 I ran into Gary Carter. He talked about teams needing multiple players to have career years in the same season. Clearly several Cubs are set to have career years in 2023! 😁
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https://theathletic.com/3977499/2022/12/07/cubs-cody-bellinger-defense-moves/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Bellinger article. Interesting to hear some of the Cubs comments.
"The Cubs’ new hitting coach, Dustin Kelly, had a video meeting Monday with Bellinger that reportedly went very well, and the two discussed possible ways to get back to his MVP form. Kelly was a coach in the Dodgers’ minor-league system after Bellinger had already reached the big leagues, but he was around him for multiple spring trainings and at the 2020 alternate site. Kelly has a familiarity with the Dodgers’ hitting department, understands what Bellinger was doing and the messaging presented to him during his best years...."
"After Bellinger’s shoulder injury, bad habits that developed included him being too far on his backside while also being under plane. Those are smaller issues in the Cubs’ eyes compared to Bellinger’s shoulder strength and stability. The hope is he’ll continue to regain range of motion in the shoulder, his confidence will grow and the mechanics that were impacted by the injury will be ironed out...."
“Playing through an injury, trying to come back and learning how to balance wanting to be out on the field and actually getting fully healthy is what a lot of players in my experience deal with, and try to rush back and maybe not getting all the way there,” Ross said. “And getting into a space where you’ve got a leg issue, you’ve got a shoulder issue, and you get into some bad habits. Bad habits create mistakes or make it tougher to hit, and then you get into this rabbit hole of chasing the feeling that you used to have and where you’re at mechanically. So there’s a lot of freedom in getting a full offseason to get healthy.”
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I respect and appreciate Ross's insights above. "rabbit hole of chasing the feeling that you used to have", I can imagine that being super true for slumping players. Confidence is so much a part of hitting.
I admit a concern with poor Bellinger is that hitting in Wrigley is hard for everybody in April. Hard to come through April feeling confident. You go to camp in Mesa and think you're starting to find your stroke. Then you get real games against real, fresh, big-league pitchers when it's 40 degrees and the wind blows in, and it takes a rocket to hit one out. And suddenly it's May 1st and he's hitting .150 with 1HR and .200 OBP, and all of that fresh-start-Mesa-confidence is gone, and he's right back in his rabbit hole.
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https://theathletic.com/3977730/2022/12/07/cubs-jameson-taillon-free-agency/
Brief rushed article on Taillon. "The Cubs are increasingly confident in their pitching infrastructure, believing they have the coaches and the resources to help players make adjustments and accentuate their talents. The Cubs dove into the offseason with the idea of targeting multiple starters with mid-90s velocity, swing-and-miss stuff and secondary pitches, which can all be paired with a strong game-planning system and an improving defense."
Mooney too is on the defense/Swanson bandwagon: "That focus on pitching and defense also includes Gold Glove shortstop Dansby Swanson, a free agent who remains firmly on the team’s radar. — Mooney"
"With all that in mind, the Cubs aren’t done trying to add to their rotation, staying in contact with the representatives for Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga. — Mooney"
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Correa is a great defensive SS, too.
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Interesting from Mooney's thing is the reference to "multiple" starters, and "staying in contact... with Senga". I know Hoyer had talked about rotation starters plural, but I'd kinda expected at two different price ranges, one more in the Taillon/Senga price range, and the second more in the Smyly/Miley price range. The prospect of perhaps still adding Senga as well as Taillon is pretty interesting.
As I've noted, I think offense is by far the Cubs biggest need, and that appears to be what they value least. But yeah, you can't make Bogaerts or Correa want to come here.
So if Hoyer goes at it with a great-defense/good-pitching/bad-offense team, you do the best you can and hope for LIAB. So it goes.
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Traditionally, Cub management has valued offense above all else. Maybe Hoyer will take a different approach, but my guess is that when the dust settles we won't be saying that the Cubs focussed too much on improving pitching vs offense.
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Pat Hughes won the Ford Frick Award and is headed to Cooperstown. Very well deserved!
https://baseballhall.org/news/pat-hughes-named-2023-frick-award-winner
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Frickin big honor.
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Among these new acquisitions, who is going to replace Heyward and Contreras' leadership? Just askin.'
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Chicago is finally getting out of that Heyward contract & they want to sign his SS doppelgänger? I have zero interest in Swanson.
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Among these new acquisitions, who is going to replace Heyward and Contreras' leadership? Just askin.'
Happ, Hoerner, and Gomes?
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Among these new acquisitions, who is going to replace Heyward and Contreras' leadership? Just askin.'
A reasonable question. They provided the leadership that resulted in our success the last couple of years.
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The Athletic surveyed 18 agents at the Winter Meetings. One of the questions they asked was "What do the Cubs mean by intelligent spending?" Here are their responses.
“Not $300 million guys.”
“Team-friendly.”
“We are going to act like a small market team even though we are one of the richest organizations going.”
“The Ricketts are clearance shopping. Wonderful.”
“That’s code for we’re not going to be involved with Aaron Judge. We’re not going to spend money that’s going to have everybody oohing and aahing, and the media fist-pumping, and then it ends up being a bad deal for us four out of the eight years. Jed (Hoyer) is sending a message to the fan base that we’re not going to spend recklessly. He’s not going to sink four years on an eight-year deal just to make a splash.”
“I’m assuming ‘intelligent spending’ is hiring scientists and analytical research people. I don’t know. I’m so lost on what the hell they’re doing. I don’t have even a clue.”
“I put them in Boston’s bucket, what the f— are they doing? Does anyone know?”
“Baseball is better when the Cubs are not ‘intelligent spending,’ let’s put it that way.”
https://theathletic.com/3977016/2022/12/07/mlb-free-agency-aaron-judge/
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Correa is a great defensive SS, too.
He was. Some statistical evidence he's already declining, though you would have to believe that was noise if you were going to give him 300 million.
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The Athletic surveyed 18 agents at the Winter Meetings. One of the questions they asked was "What do the Cubs mean by intelligent spending?" Here are their responses.
“Not $300 million guys.”
“Team-friendly.”
“We are going to act like a small market team even though we are one of the richest organizations going.”
“The Ricketts are clearance shopping. Wonderful.”
“That’s code for we’re not going to be involved with Aaron Judge. We’re not going to spend money that’s going to have everybody oohing and aahing, and the media fist-pumping, and then it ends up being a bad deal for us four out of the eight years. Jed (Hoyer) is sending a message to the fan base that we’re not going to spend recklessly. He’s not going to sink four years on an eight-year deal just to make a splash.”
“I’m assuming ‘intelligent spending’ is hiring scientists and analytical research people. I don’t know. I’m so lost on what the hell they’re doing. I don’t have even a clue.”
“I put them in Boston’s bucket, what the f— are they doing? Does anyone know?”
“Baseball is better when the Cubs are not ‘intelligent spending,’ let’s put it that way.”
https://theathletic.com/3977016/2022/12/07/mlb-free-agency-aaron-judge/
This is the hard-won skepticism Ricketts has won over the last few years, and there's only one way to change it. PR is not that way, and basically what we've gotten up to this point is PR (and guys like Boras trying to talk the Cubs up as leverage on other teams). It can change but we all know how it has to happen if it does.
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Cubs passed in the draft
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A reasonable question. They provided the leadership that resulted in our success the last couple of years.
Your sarcasm is noted, but my reference wasn't about wins and losses, but about demonstrating solidarity and pride regardless. I think we've all seen teams become real ****-shows when they're spiraling downwards.
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Cubs lose Chris Clarke
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But Strumpf stays!
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This is the hard-won skepticism Ricketts has won over the last few years, and there's only one way to change it. PR is not that way, and basically what we've gotten up to this point is PR (and guys like Boras trying to talk the Cubs up as leverage on other teams). It can change but we all know how it has to happen if it does.
And at this point, I think it's fair to say that Hoyer has contributed to that skepticism too. As much as I dislike Ricketts, I'd blame Hoyer more this year if they fail to sign Correa or Bogaerts.
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Cubs lose Chris Clarke
He'll be back.
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And at this point, I think it's fair to say that Hoyer has contributed to that skepticism too. As much as I dislike Ricketts, I'd blame Hoyer more this year if they fail to sign Correa or Bogaerts.
I think Hoyer shares the blame in part, for his lack of dynamic leadership as the face of the front office if nothing else. However, it seems far more logical to assume Ricketts is the main culprit if they miss on all the big names than Hoyer. He’s the one setting the budgets and writing the checks.
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Deeg, I think the scuttlebutt usually is about Miss Ricketts being a petty, ego-centric **** jealous of the attention given to Tom. But that's just a nasty rumor.
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Deeg, I think the scuttlebutt usually is about Miss Ricketts being a petty, ego-centric **** jealous of the attention given to Tom. But that's just a nasty rumor.
What does that have to do with anything being discussed here?
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Bogaerts and Red Sox supposedly in "deep discussion".
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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Six teams still need a SS and they are all talking to Xander Bogaerts now. Red Sox, Padres, Cubs are among them.
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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Six teams still need a SS and they are all talking to Xander Bogaerts now. Red Sox, Padres, Cubs are among them.
A few hours earlier:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Red Sox are in heavy discussions with star shortstop Xander Bogaerts
Jon Heyman Retweeted
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe
Momentum between the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts according to a source.
Just a reminder to take anything Heyman says about a Boras client with a grain of salt.
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Yeah, we’re strictly leverage when it comes to XB. He’s going back to Boston.
I confess I’m kind of a “bird in the hand” guy when it comes to elite FAs. If Correa is going to be a big Boras song & dance that drags out for days or weeks, and Swanson is gettable now and might be lost if you wait for Correa, sign Swanson and be done with it. Correa is probably going to SF or SD (who’ve been uncharacteristically quiet) anyway.
At that point, having signed two of the guys I predicted, turn to a third acquisition I called, Jansen. Murphy will cost too much in talent and Vazquez wants too many years. Jansen won’t be cheap but it’ll be less than Murphy, and he actually makes more sense than Murphy for the Cubs. His bat is good enough to DH and he’s a nice mix of offense and receiving skills to pair with Gomes’ papier-mâché bat.
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You do love buy high guys.
That would be the most disappointing off-season since Descalso.
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If that helps you.
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I don't hear anybody claiming "collusion" this year.
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You do love buy high guys.
Deeg is in his Cubs Manic mode.
Let him enjoy.
He’ll be in Cubs Depressive mode soon enough.
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What made you this way?
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I don't hear anybody claiming "collusion" this year.
Ricketts can be a one-man self-directed collusion, he doesn’t need anybody’s help.
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Anyone know what that means? It isn't quite as clear as his usual Ricketts dementia.
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Deeg, I think your suggestions seem good and thoughtful. The Cubs are in a tough spot for catcher. There is no great solution. So sifting between between non-ideal, possibly overly-costly choices, versus no-offense choices, I don't know which is least painful choice?
*We've got old Gomes who can't hit much.
*You can go with something cheap and defensive (Barnhart?);
*or maybe Narvaez. Not sure what he'd cost? Or if they think he's got the catching skills and pitcher-whisperer qualities that they want? Or if they think he might hit ever again? He's been sub-.600 OPS two of last three years. One advantage is that he's lefty, so he might seem a better semi-platoon-fit with Gomes that another RH catcher?
*Or Vasquez. But is he way overpriced and over-lengthed?
*Or go for somebody younger in trade. I don't know whether Jansen is pitcher-whisperer, but he'd certainly seem like he's got a chance to hit. Not sure what he'd cost, probably something substantial. But *if* he's the type of guy they like defensively, and could be a 3-year guy, paying something serious would seem reasonable. I don't see why pursuing discussions in that direction wouldn't be worth considering?
I also think your point on Swanson and Correa is also well taken. Boras may wells stretch Bogaerts/Correa out for some time. *If* you get shut out on those two, and Swanson is by then already gone, what then? If Swanson is available now for a fair price, and for wife-reasons would prefer to sign with Cubs at a fair price, there is logic in getting a fair price deal done while it's available without messing around. It's certainly possible that if you don't, you'll end up with Madrigal being a primary starter. Or that Hoyer will sign Bogaerts or correa, but to a bad over-pay over-length deal that we regret for a bundle of years, who knows?
So I think your ideas are very reasonable and well worth considering.
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Craig, the thing with Barnhart is he’s not even that good defensively, at least according to any conventional metrics, at this point in his career. He’s just a bad player who happens to hit left-handed.
Jansen and Narvaez both have a good reputation as game managers and for working with pitchers. If the Cubs aren’t interested in Narvaez (who knows if they are) there must be some source of their concern, because he’s a pretty decent player. The issue with Jansen may be that on paper at least we don’t match up very well with the Jays.
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What does that have to do with anything being discussed here?
I was alluding to the fact that the one nagging Tom about spending too much money was his sister.
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I was alluding to the fact that the one nagging Tom about spending too much money was his sister.
As in, she wants him to spend less what - so people will hate on him? Is that actual scuttlebutt or just a joke?
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Actual. Going way back, she has been jealous of the attention that Tom has gotten when it is a family enterprise. She can be nasty.
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I was alluding to the fact that the one nagging Tom about spending too much money was his sister.
Where exactly did you hear that? I live in Chicago and follow things here pretty closely and I know a thing or two about Laura Ricketts. I have never ever heard anything remotely like that. Curt I really think you should be careful about posting unsupported claims like that.
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Not hard to find…
https://deadspin.com/read-all-the-snippy-emails-the-ricketts-family-sent-eac-1833670929
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Ron, I didn't make it up. Dave, thanks for the assist. I'm surprised Ron that you haven't heard this. Not sure where I read it, but it was news, even on this board. Sorry if I've offended you.
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Not hard to find…
https://deadspin.com/read-all-the-snippy-emails-the-ricketts-family-sent-eac-1833670929
Thanks for the link. I had not seen this. This supports the claim that Laura was unhappy about the focus on Tom - at the point of purchasing the Cubs anyway. Those emails suggest rather clearly some internal family dynamics that had been going on for some time. They are also 13 years old.
What they do not do, so far as I can see, is suggest in any way whatsoever that Laura has been "nagging Tom about spending too much money." There may or may not be any current issue of "jealousy" or whatever but this article certainly does not support that. Nor does it warrant Curt's claim that Laura "can be nasty." Maybe she can be, but I haven't seen or heard anything to that effect. Nor do I see how it's relevant to anything.
I will say again that such strong negative characterizations about someone without providing a basis for it is, in my view, inappropriate. Maybe Curt heard someone say something, or whatever. But people speak recklessly and without knowledge about actual facts all the time. I just think it is good practice to avoid spreading such claims without a strong basis.
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Ron, again, I read it somewhere other than Deadspin. Something more recent. You are correct, however, I should have rechecked sources and posted them. Sorry.
BTW, anything else I've read about Laura has been positive.
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The Bogaerts contract isn't yearly expensive, it's the length. Same with Turner. None of those averages are surprising; if anything they are surprisingly low. But it's the secure length that seems to be the trend.
Hoyer seems highly averse to length-risk. Given that length is the currency for top-end FA's, it may be that Hoyer is just intrinsically ill-matched to securing a top-end guy. That's the market; if Hoyer won't pay market, he won't get top-end guys.
deeg, you attribute things to Ricketts. My perception is that Ricketts pretty much entirely entrusts financial resources to Theo and Hoyer. It's up to them, the baseball guys, to evaluate how money should be spent, and whether it's wise to spend now or later, and whether it's wise to borrow some $30M chunks from 8, 9, 10, and 11 years from now or not. I don't think it's Ricketts saying "don't exceed 7 years"; I think that's just an internal priority by Hoyer and the baseball people. For better or for worse.
2-3 years out, or 7-11 years out, maybe I'll look back and say, "Man, remember when we were disappointed that Hoyer didn't go after the SS's? Wow, am I glad we don't have $25-30 per year for the next six years on these washed-up mediocre Bogaerts/Turner guys! Glad Hoyer had more discipline than me!"
Still, avoiding bad contracts is one thing, but how do you get better if you don't pay market for top players? One way, of course, would be to have really productive D+D. Why don't we produce our own top-end SS, and top-end 2B, and top-end 3B? Hope somehow we magically do so.
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Curt - I appreciate your response. Now, let's sign a short stop!
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I went to the archives to remind myself where some of this came from:
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Ron
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #5804 on: May 17, 2012, 06:42:12 pm »
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Quote from: Deeg on May 17, 2012, 05:59:02 pm
Setting the notoriously strained relationship with Laura aside, it was incredibly stupid for Joe Ricketts to allow himself to be drawn in with a massive smear campaign directed at a Chicago native in an overwhelmingly Democratic city, not least when the Cubs are trying to get money and concessions from the government for ballpark-related developments. It really makes me question his judgement, at the absolute least.
And Tom and Todd have made enormous donations to Republican candidates (all public record - who knows about SuperPAC donations) and to the party, so they're certainly political. They've just been more discreet about it.
Did not know about the brothers' political contributions (though lots of fine people contribute to Republican candidates). Did not know about the "notoriously strained relationship" between Laura and others in the family. Guess I'm more out of the loop than I realized. Can you elaborate on that part?
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davep
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« Reply #5805 on: May 17, 2012, 07:36:10 pm »
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You are more in the loop than I am. I don't even know who Laura is.
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shasson
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« Reply #5806 on: May 17, 2012, 07:38:19 pm »
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The Atlantic had a thumbnail portrait of each of the Ricketts' and their political giving. Laura is the only Democrat. Joe, frankly, seems like a crank (but, I'm a liberal and I'm not inclined to be charitable toward a guy like him):
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/05/remarkable-conflicted-ricketts-family-and-their-political-money/52470/#
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davep
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« Reply #5807 on: May 17, 2012, 07:46:44 pm »
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I know what you mean. To me, Laura seems to be the twisted one.
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shasson
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« Reply #5808 on: May 17, 2012, 08:01:13 pm »
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I'm thinking a reality TV show on the Ricketts. Not just the Laura vs The Men during the heightened tension of a presidential election year, but also as they work with the City of Chicago on Wrigley renovations, it could allow for tons of screen time for Mayor Rahm too, which would be super entertaining, but also require it to be on HBO and rated TV-MA for world-class profanity. And Joe can have Sharon Angle on, for comedic relief.
I've actually worked with Laura on some charitable stuff, and she's a very nice person. I've heard the same said of Tom by people who have met him.
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You will have to go to the archives I guess to see who said what, but Ron, you're one of them. I'm sure there's more in the archives, but I'm done.
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Curt - All of that seems to be about the political divisions between Laura and the others (other than Tom). That is certainly well known, and to my mind, to Laura's credit. None of this involves Laura wanting the Cubs to spend less etc.
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I have been pretty confident that the Cubs would sign one of the four free agent short stops. While I had preferences among them, I figured I'd be pretty content with whomever they signed. But I'm now genuinely concerned they will come up empty. I can't imagine them making the long term commitment it will take to get Correa. And if that's the case, the more time passes without a deal for Swanson, the less likely it seems that they'll get him either. That really would make this a deeply disappointing off-season. Fingers crossed for some good news soon.
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Correa is one and two years younger than Turner and Bogearts and the latter two got 11 years, so it seems to follow that Correa has a case for 12——especially with Boras agenting.
And, Boras probably wants to exceed the dollar value of the Lindor contract with Mets too.
Would also think that the years of a Swanson deal are going to go up from early projections, given the above deals.
How long will Correa be a very good player late career?
Jeter’s last very good season was age 35 (6 WAR). ARod had a 3 WAR season at age 39 (after his suspension).
Could maybe see Correa playing at 4 WAR level in mid-30s. That’s 8 seasons thru age 35.
Then, a 2 WAR player in late 30s.
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So, to continue the thoughts above, Correa figures to have value for a very long time, albeit lesser value in his late 30s.
But, think he has decent chance to be a league average player, or close to that, even at back end of his deal. In 10-11 years, who knows what even an average player will be getting paid—more than now.
So, hoping that Sharma, Jesse Rogers, etc. are wrong about Cubs avoiding very long contracts.
Of course, even if Cubs offer Correa a massive deal, still might go to Giants or wherever. But, Cubs should be in thick of things on Correa. Hope they are and pull it off.
If not successful, will be okay with Swanson——but strong competition for him. As I said a week ago, perceptions of Cubs off-season will turn on whether Cubs sign one of the SSs, period.
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11/342, front loaded, with outs starting after 3rd year…
Would that get it done?
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11/342, front loaded, with outs starting after 3rd year…
Would that get it done?
Jeez, you'd sure hope it would.
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In this market, I'm not sure it does...
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Agree with Dave, probably not enough. If Bogaerts is getting 11 years, Correa will absolutely get more years if he wants that.
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What's especially frustrating to read about in the current situation is how the Giant's loss on Judge means they now have "hundreds of millions" to waive in front of Correa.
As if the Cubs don't.
Ricketts has managed a good PR game in the past few days (lots of stories of "spend what it takes"), but it sure seems like the "smart spending" bullshit is still the MO.
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I get the math behind the 11 year deals, and the AAV...who here would be OK with a 12 year deal for Correa if we front-loaded it just enough to make years 10-12 not as bad.
Of course, in 10-12 years, they probably won't be looked at as bad, anyway...
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We need to spend what it takes to get one of Correa/Swanson, with a strong bias towards Correa.
Given current market, yes, absolutely happy to go 12 years if that's what it takes for CC.
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I get the math behind the 11 year deals, and the AAV...who here would be OK with a 12 year deal for Correa if we front-loaded it just enough to make years 10-12 not as bad.
Of course, in 10-12 years, they probably won't be looked at as bad, anyway...
Hey, it isn't my money so sure!
I have not been among those arguing that the Cubs should spend "whatever it takes" to acquire top players in the past. I think it's reasonable to set limits, especially based on long-term consequences. And I think these astronomical amounts are absurd. But that is the nature of MLB today.
But if the Cubs are unwilling to "overpay" while other teams are willing to do so, then it seems unlikely the Cubs will be able to have a team with comparable talent any time soon. The farm system as constituted is not going to produce the equivalent of the Bryant/Rizzo/Baez etc young players that formed the core of the team that consistently played deep into the playoffs.
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I have not been among those arguing that the Cubs should spend "whatever it takes" to acquire top players in the past. I think it's reasonable to set limits, especially based on long-term consequences. And I think these astronomical amounts are absurd. But that is the nature of MLB today.
At some point there are definitely limits to "spend what it takes."
What ever that limit is, Cubs are 9 figures from it as it relates to 2023 payroll.
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Listening to Ravich on Buster’s podcast discussing Bogaerts and Red Sox.
Apparently, Red Sox top offer was $160 (according to Boston media)——a mere $120 less than Padres.
Ravich posited that maybe Sox just didn’t like Bogaerts as a player as much as Padres did. Simple explanation sometimes is most accurate.
Made me think of Contreras and Cubs/Cardinals. In that case, pretty obviously true. Mystifying to me why, but there you go.
Red Sox being brutalized by media and fans about losing Bogaerts. Contreras deal happened about same time and Cubs getting off without much of a squawk, probably because everybody saw this coming for a long time. But, absent a better explanation, maybe in the general ballpark of egregiousness as Bogaerts departure from Boston. Okay, Cubs didn’t really like the guy as a player. Didn’t care for Contreras?
Why? THIRD BASE! (i don’t know).
Well, let’s see how Cubs address catching situation going forward.
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11/342, front loaded, with outs starting after 3rd year…
Would that get it done?
Probably not. He's either going to get 12-13 years or $35M+ AAV.
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I just saw this Gordon Wittenmyer column from yesterday. Wittenmyer is anything but a shill for the Cubs and he had this to say about the Cubs interest in Correa.
And sources suggest they’re as deeply involved in trying to land him as anyone this side of the Twins — despite a price tag widely assumed to be bigger than Turner’s as the youngest (28) of the four big-name shortstops and the only one of the group not tied to a qualifying offer and the consequent draft-pick compensation.
...
The Cubs are well down the road with Correa, a player they’ve coveted since an eye-popping workout at Wrigley Field before he was drafted No. 1 overall by the Astros in 2012. And they’re talking seriously with Atlanta free agent Dansby Swanson as at least a possible Plan B (while the Ricketts mandate lends credence to reports suggesting they could be in play for both).
“Whether or not we’re going to get one of those shortstops, TBD,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said of that position pool Tuesday night. “But we’re certainly actively involved and we’ll see where everything lands.”
...
As for Bogaerts, several other teams appear more serious than the Cubs, whose interest was characterized by a source with knowledge of their dialogue as “kicking the tires.”
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/carlos-correa-still-focus-after-cubs-land-jameson-taillon
I have been assuming Correa was not a realistic possibility. But the more I've thought about it the more it makes sense for the Cubs to make an exception regarding an huge, long term commitment. If the Cubs were going to have a star to anchor the team going forward, he does seem to fit the bill in so many ways, including his age, skill set, and his reported leadership skills. I sure hope the Cubs leadership thinks the same thing and surprises me and a lot of other people by acquiring him. But I'm not getting my hopes up.
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If the Cubs wanted Correa they had their chance last winter, when there were really no big fish in the water. That chance has probably gone at this point.
To me there are two big questions coming out of the WM. What has this seller’s market done to Swanson’s price, first of all? If he was ever their Plan B I think he became Plan A pretty quickly once the big deals started going down, but if he’s a $200 million player now they may want no part of that.
Which begs the second question - if Swanson was Plan A (or 1-A) what is Plan B now? There are no other big-time FA hitters in that class. Most of the trade chatter we’ve heard involves catchers and (strictly speculative) front-end SPs. Do they just “roll over the money” yet again, and go into the season projected to win 75 games? Do you make a play for Nimmo, who isn’t a paradigm-changing bat but certainly fills a need? Pillage the system to trade for a big bat?
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Thanks, Ron.
This may be dumb, but I'm a little guarded on how great Correa is likely to be? "Star" is a somewhat vague term, and different people can use that as broadly as they like. I'd love to add him, he's really good, and the Cubs need any and all the offense that they can find. Being a very good hitter combined with being a good defensive middle-infielder, I get all of that love.
But, I'm also a little restrained. For example:
1. MVP: In his 8-year career, he's finished in the top-15 for MVP once; never in the top 4; and has gotten MVP votes only once in the last 5 years. Very valuable, but if he's a $450-million guy, should guys who are top-15 MVP guys all get $500+?
2. HR/slugger: Career high is 26 HR. He's slugged .500 only once in the last 5 seasons. Not really a big slugger.
3. Hit-maker: He had a good year this year, BA .291, his best in years. But within the last 5 years, his BA has ranged within .291-.239. Turner and Bogaerts are both better hit-makers.
4. K's: 121 and 116 K's the last two years. For a guy without big slugging power, it's not like he's an amazing contact guy, either.
5. OPS: Last two years .834 and .850, better than Willson, and VERY nice for a good-fielding SS. And the Cubs can use all the help they can get. But we're not talking Judge or Trout or Goldschmidt or Freeman or one of these super-star hitters. Correa has had .709 and .728 OPS seasons within the last five.
I'd love to add him, and if we did I admit I'd be thinking optimistic thoughts about the possibilities for 2023. ("Wow, you know, *IF* both Bellinger and Mervis actually hit, we could be a really good team RIGHT NOW...." kind of thoughts.). But I think I want a good hitter so much that I might imagine more of Correa than he really is? For example, his offensive numbers are comparable or a little less good than Michael Barrett with the Cubs; good, but not quite superstar?
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...Which begs the second question -..... Do they just “roll over the money” yet again, and go into the season projected to win 75 games? Do you make a play for Nimmo, who isn’t a paradigm-changing bat but certainly fills a need? Pillage the system to trade for a big bat?
If they don't get Correa or Swanson, I think they just roll over the money.
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If they don't get Correa or Swanson, it's a massive failure by leadership.
They've been rolling the money for a while now, supposedly.
If it only ever gets rolled, and never spent, then there's no point.
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If you don't get Correa or Swanson, how do you improve the roster enough to be seriously competitive by 2024? The FA class after next season doesn't look that promising and I don't know that the Cubs will have the high end minor league talent to trade for top tier players.
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Nimmo cf
Swanson ss
Suzuki rf
Happ lf
Gomes c
Hoerner 2b
Bellinger 1B
Wisdom 3b
Merdes DH
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If Bellinger doesn't hit, he still provided a fair amount of value as a defensive center fielder. If he doesn't hit as a first baseman, we can't afford to have him on the team at 17 million per year. With the bulk of top prospects likely to arrive in the next two year, Davis, Canario, Crow-Armstrong, Cassie and Alcantara, are all outfielders, with only two open spaces out there, even assuming Happ goes.
I don't see a scenario where Nimmo is worth anything beyond a one year contract, which he will not accept.
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Thanks, Ron.
This may be dumb, but I'm a little guarded on how great Correa is likely to be? "Star" is a somewhat vague term, and different people can use that as broadly as they like. I'd love to add him, he's really good, and the Cubs need any and all the offense that they can find. Being a very good hitter combined with being a good defensive middle-infielder, I get all of that love.
But, I'm also a little restrained. For example:
1. MVP: In his 8-year career, he's finished in the top-15 for MVP once; never in the top 4; and has gotten MVP votes only once in the last 5 years. Very valuable, but if he's a $450-million guy, should guys who are top-15 MVP guys all get $500+?
2. HR/slugger: Career high is 26 HR. He's slugged .500 only once in the last 5 seasons. Not really a big slugger.
3. Hit-maker: He had a good year this year, BA .291, his best in years. But within the last 5 years, his BA has ranged within .291-.239. Turner and Bogaerts are both better hit-makers.
4. K's: 121 and 116 K's the last two years. For a guy without big slugging power, it's not like he's an amazing contact guy, either.
5. OPS: Last two years .834 and .850, better than Willson, and VERY nice for a good-fielding SS. And the Cubs can use all the help they can get. But we're not talking Judge or Trout or Goldschmidt or Freeman or one of these super-star hitters. Correa has had .709 and .728 OPS seasons within the last five.
I'd love to add him, and if we did I admit I'd be thinking optimistic thoughts about the possibilities for 2023. ("Wow, you know, *IF* both Bellinger and Mervis actually hit, we could be a really good team RIGHT NOW...." kind of thoughts.). But I think I want a good hitter so much that I might imagine more of Correa than he really is? For example, his offensive numbers are comparable or a little less good than Michael Barrett with the Cubs; good, but not quite superstar?
Craig, I do think that’s a fair question. Correa is a terrific player, but not a superstar as a hitter - not like Judge or even Harper. I do think it’s valid to wonder whether that’s the guy a club trying to build an offense from nothing gives $350-400 million to.
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Push notifications can be bad.
If you don't get Correa or Swanson, how do you improve the roster enough to be seriously competitive by 2024? The FA class after next season doesn't look that promising and I don't know that the Cubs will have the high end minor league talent to trade for top tier players.
Here’s the thing. If you want a World Series team you probably need 3 hitters that are as good or better than Correa.
If you sign Swanson and resign Happ you will have sub-.800 OPS players at SS, 2B, RF. LF. CF is probably PCA and counting on him to be monster bat seems like a stretch. 1B doesn’t really have anyone that is a free agent soon. 3B is basically Machado or believing in Brandon Dury’s breakout. DH is Ohtani. So then you really need Davis to break out or trade for Murphy. The options for the Cubs just get more narrow if you sign Swanson.
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If you don't get Correa or Swanson, how do you improve the roster enough to be seriously competitive by 2024? The FA class after next season doesn't look that promising and I don't know that the Cubs will have the high end minor league talent to trade for top tier players.
I don't think there is a path to being seriously competitive in 2024 without Correa. The Cubs have treated last offseason and this offseason (so far) like the MacPhail-Tribune era Cubs--sign some second and third tier players, then fill the rest of the team with LIAB candidates. And I think next offseason would be the same way. Outside of 1998, we saw how well that worked.
Pay Correa what he wants and trade for Murphy. That's the fastest path to actually putting a good team on the field again.
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The biggest FA of all time is available in 2 years. Soto. Save it all. Hes a TRUE difference maker and will be a FA at 25.
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The biggest FA of all time is Judge. He's damb near 7 feet tall!
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The biggest FA of all time is available in 2 years. Soto. Save it all. Hes a TRUE difference maker and will be a FA at 25.
With Padres spending money, possible that Soto never hits free agency. Can’t count on notion of going after Soto.
In any case, he would be 26 when a FA——same age that Jason Heyward was a FA.
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With Padres spending money, possible that Soto never hits free agency. Can’t count on notion of going after Soto.
In any case, he would be 26 when a FA——same age that Jason Heyward was a FA.
Mentioned this in the other thread, they likely need Machado to opt out after next year to keep Soto as well. Esp with the Tatis/Xander contracts on the books.
So fine, get Machado when he opts out. Throw the money at him.
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Mentioned this in the other thread, they likely need Machado to opt out after next year to keep Soto as well. Esp with the Tatis/Xander contracts on the books.
So fine, get Machado when he opts out. Throw the money at him.
Trade for Tatis?
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If you don't get Correa or Swanson, how do you improve the roster enough to be seriously competitive by 2024? The FA class after next season doesn't look that promising and I don't know that the Cubs will have the high end minor league talent to trade for top tier players.
Might Hoyer sees it this way too? He's been rebuilding for a couple of years with the chance to now compete, but using P2 logic he now sees the next two seasons hinging on getting a SS now? If so, might he not be in super-panic mode and overbid like crazy? Let 2031-2032 take care of themselves, do I want to extend to a 4-year rebuild to protect 2031-32? I'll bid like a wildman!
But then, might not perhaps San Francisco see it the same way, so they too are overbidding like an even wilder man, with all the money that Judge declined? Two wildmen bidding each other crazy, with Boras loving every minute of their mutual madness?
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Wonder how Boras deals with the Correa free agency in tandem with the Bogaerts free agency, as he represents both, and both same position guys with similar profiles and overlapping teams of interest.
Thinking potential conflicts of interest as an agent.
Let’s say, for sake of discussion, Padres preferred Correa over Bogaerts but Bogaerts market is more limited than Correa’s market. So, makes sense for Boras—as Bogaerts agent—to steer Correa elsewhere in order to get Bogaerts placed with a big spender, before Correa goes push-to-shove to finalize his deal. Correa doesn’t need the Padres; Bogaerts does. But, maybe Correa really likes idea of playing with Soto and Machado and Tatis in Sam Diego compared to Giants, Twins, Cubs. Correa gets his money elsewhere but maybe not the 2023 World Series he craves.
I suppose if Boras is totally up front with Correa about all this it’s not a problem. But, still has potential for conflicts or appearance of conflicts. It’s not a short-term commitment for these clients, such as a movie role for an actor. This is remainder of each player’s career.
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Boras is a lawyer. He would never do anything that unscrupulous.
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Heyman column on Correa.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/08/carlos-correa-in-prime-free-agency-position-with-needy-teams/
IF it's true, as Wittenmyer claims, that the Cubs are still in serious pursuit of Correa, is it now pretty much down to the Giants or Cubs?
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Heyman column on Correa.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/08/carlos-correa-in-prime-free-agency-position-with-needy-teams/
IF it's true, as Wittenmyer claims, that the Cubs are still in serious pursuit of Correa, is it now pretty much down to the Giants or Cubs?
Unless you believe the Twins could somehow still be in on him, or a “mystery team”. Red Sox in theory might be a player but I haven’t heard any links.
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Heyman column on Correa.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/08/carlos-correa-in-prime-free-agency-position-with-needy-teams/
IF it's true, as Wittenmyer claims, that the Cubs are still in serious pursuit of Correa, is it now pretty much down to the Giants or Cubs?
The Cubs are looking at both Correa and Swanson, though Swanson seems like the more obvious fit for them since his fiancée, Mallory Pugh, is a star of the Chicago Red Stars soccer club, and he’ll be cheaper than Correa.
That's the reputation of the Cubs now. They're looking for the cheapest option, not the best.
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The Dodgers could also be lying in the weeds.
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The Dodgers could also be lying in the weeds.
Always possible, though I still feel like they’re conserving powder to make sure no one can hang with them for Ohtani next winter.
Even BN is starting to turn on the Cubs, LOL (though I’m sure he’ll find a way to spin whatever they do as brilliant in the end). If they don’t make some sort of big move a lot of people are going to be really pissed off.
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I doubt Correa would keep them from going after Ohtani.
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If the Cubs don't play the LOVE card, they're really really stupid. Play dirty. "Mrs. Swanson, Mrs. Swanson, we have a question." "I'm not Mrs. Swanson yet, but we're engaged." "Oh, is that the reason he doesn't respond to the Cubs offer? Being with you is not a draw?"
She'd be on the phone very shortly.
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https://theathletic.com/3984652/2022/12/09/cubs-shortstop-dansby-swanson/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Mooney article. Headline (which Mooney probably didn't write) "Can the Cubs win the offseason without landing a star shortstop?"
No real news.
1. "To cut through the clutter and understand what the Chicago Cubs are trying to accomplish, you have to keep going back to one question: Can they have a successful offseason without signing one of the four marquee shortstops on the free-agent market? .... no one thinks this team is one player away from competing for a World Series title again." (Mooney)
2. "The Cubs are still far beneath next year’s $233 million threshold.... The team’s current estimated major-league payroll for 2023 is around $176 million while accounting for the luxury tax, according to RosterResource."
3. "Jed Hoyer’s baseball operations group will have to readjust and react to .... market forces."
4. "The Cubs may eventually sign another free agent who can play first base, but that position is not as much of a priority right now, given Bellinger’s defensive versatility, Matt Mervis’ emergence as a left-handed power hitter..."
5. "“Until our farm system really starts producing, which I think it will be in the next couple years, that leaves you with holes,” Hoyer said. “We don’t have five or six prospects kind of ready to come up and fill spots. Whenever you have that, you have to fill more holes through free agency.” (Spread it around)
6. Hawkins said. “I think it would be unrealistic for us to talk about being a 105-win team next year, so we don’t do that, right? But we do talk about the path that we’re on and the improvements that we’re making and how that player’s going to fit into that plan.”
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The above kinda sound like spread-it-around, and "improve" and "path that we're on", and "unrealistic to talk about being a 105-win team", (Hawkins), "no one thinks this team is one player away" (Mooney), and "you have to fill more holes" (Hoyer).
So not-one-player-away, unrealistic-to-be-really-good, have-to-fill-more-holes, that all sounds like no-Correa talk. Spread it around, look for LIAB, talk about your rebuilding path. When you've been so bad, easy to win the "we're improving" game.
A couple of other notes from that and other articles: There were some notes about what a great clubhouse guy and leadership guy Taillon is. About what a great clubhouse guy and leadership guy Swanson is. And about what a great clubhouse guy guy Correa is.
Those are meaningful qualities, and I know Curt was just asking about those yesterday. Particularly for guys who have just started 12-year contracts or if Swanson makes a huge overpay killing, character is probably very important. Some guys can get hundreds of millions, and can get comfortable and lose their drive. So I like reading that about both Taillon and the two SS possibilities.
After the Heyward disaster, though, I'm also reminded that the most important quality is being really good at baseball, and I hope Hoyer doesn't go to extremes on the leadership. For example, if there was hypothetically a guy who can really hit, I'd not back off because he's an introvert.
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3. "Jed Hoyer’s baseball operations group will have to readjust and react to .... market forces."
I think this is my main concern. Until Hoyer pays for a difference-making free agent, I'm just not convinced the front office has acknowledged that the price of doing business with top players has increased. Sometimes, it feels like Hoyer is still expecting to sign extensions or free agents at the same price they would've gotten a few years ago.
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We are only one player away, craig. Unfortunately Willie Mays is old, Hank Aaron and Ernie Banks are dead, and Pete Rose is banned.
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4. "The Cubs may eventually sign another free agent who can play first base, but that position is not as much of a priority right now, given Bellinger’s defensive versatility, Matt Mervis’ emergence as a left-handed power hitter..."
I wonder if a DH who is not also a 1B option is on the shopping list.
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I've been thinking "Cubs are cheap, we've got no big-tickets, we're rebuilding, we've got limitless $$$ space". And yes, of course I get the common point that the Cubs *should* fly past the lux line every season like the Mets and Dodgers.
Still, I think common presumption has been that this "path-we're-on" team is not one that Hoyer will want to shoot past the lux line?
So I admit naive surprise the Cubs are only $57 below the lux line. *IF* they were to hypothetically sign both Correa for $34 and Senga for $20, for example, they'be be only $3M short of the line, before even getting started on Hoyers "holes" at catcher, DH, closer, or other relief.
Maybe they'd be fine to go over by a little? Next year, coming off would be:
Heyward: 22
Bellinger: 7.5
Hendricks: 12.5
Possibly Happ if not resigned: ~12
Possibly Stroman if he opts out: 21
So that's ~$75 possibly coming off. Although obviously some of those guys coming off you'll either want back, at increased price, or else replacing them will cost a bunch.
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When we talk about how many players we are away...away from what? Almost guaranteed World Champion? World Series? Division Champ? Playoffs?
Many teams surprise us with their play...sometimes their collapse, sometimes their winning streak.
I think the Cubs are 3 or 4 players away from playing with the Dodgers and Astros as World Series class. One player away from making the playoffs. Two or three players from the division. Injuries, hot streaks, career years start to play in.
I thought the Cubs of the second half last year were starting to get fun to watch again.
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They've been unwatchable since the great trade off.
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To me, Hawkins comments would be most compatible with their targeting Swanson.
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I wonder if a DH who is not also a 1B option is on the shopping list.
Agree. I'm kinda puzzled as to what they might be wanting.
1. Mooney mentions Bellinger providing depth/insurance at 1B. Not sure I see that? Easier to plug anybody in at 1B than in CF. *IF* Bellinger is hitting well enough to keep in the lineup, why would you move him from CF to 1B?
2. Bellinger has had huge lefty-righty splits. He's a guy who should have a RH platoon option. Mervis and Bellinger probably ought to have RH platoon options....
3. As Deeg has noted, Cubs lack good lefty bats. All else equal, wouldn't you maybe prefer a lefty DH bat?
So I have conflicting desires:
1. Lefty DH.
2. Righty 1B.
3. Righty CF.
-One FA can't meet those wishes.
One imperfect "solution" would be to use internal RH guys as the platoon options. Platoon Bellinger with Morel in center? Platoon Mervis with Morel (Morel 3B, Wisdom 1B)? Platoon Mervis with Madrigal? (Mad 2B, Hoerner 3B, Wisdom 1B). Lot of positional shuffling going on with some of those, though; and lots of positions compromised defensively. Without necessarily getting much offense from the RH guys anyway? Unfortunately Morel had pretty strong reverses splits; he was way better versus RHP than LHP.
I suppose one "solution" would be if Morel could hit enough to be OK using him? Would he be the best platoon-CF available right now? Or if Mervis needed platoon, would you put Morel at 3B and Wisdom at 1B?
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To me, Hawkins comments would be most compatible with their targeting Swanson.
Agree. He'd qualify as incremental "improvement", without any pretense of making it a championship offense. And he'd leave some extra space under the lux line, assuming Hoyer for whatever reason doesn't want to surpass that, for other holes.
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To me, Hawkins comments would be most compatible with their targeting Swanson.
Swanson seems like the worst of both worlds to me. He's not a star, he's just a good complimentary player. So he doesn't really move the needle in 2023. And since he's a good-not-great player who will be 31-32 by the time Cubs prospects get here, he's probably someone you wish you could upgrade over at that point.
The Braves have been extremely aggressive locking up players they see as their long term core for a few years now. On paper, shortstop seems to be the only position where they need to add a player this offseason. So it's pretty telling that they don't seem to be that interested in bringing back Swanson unless his price comes down, IMO.
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Don't the Braves already have multiple pricey long-term commitments? Maybe they're not financially ready/able to add another one.
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One position I worry about is Wisdom at 3B. His HR's give him OK offensive scores, but he's a low-OBP easy-out most of the time, and sometimes seems to be kind of a rally killer. He's also shown large L/R splits. I also worry that he's a guy whose margin is so thin, he could very easily fall off the cliff and slip from a .200-hitter to a .120 hitter; from a .725-OPS to a .500-OPS season; from a 100 wRC+ to a 70.
This is really dumb, but one obscure guy I'm kinda interested in is Miles Mastrobuoni! :):) *IF* Wisdom falls further off the cliff vs RHP, I wonder whether MM, a strong contact/OBP guy in minors, might get some starts versus RHP? Replacing an auto-out with a tough-out good-OBP guy might end up being somewhat useful?
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Please join me on the Miles Mastrobuoni bandwagon.
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Swanson seems like the worst of both worlds to me. He's not a star, he's just a good complimentary player. So he doesn't really move the needle in 2023. And since he's a good-not-great player who will be 31-32 by the time Cubs prospects get here, he's probably someone you wish you could upgrade over at that point.
The Braves have been extremely aggressive locking up players they see as their long term core for a few years now. On paper, shortstop seems to be the only position where they need to add a player this offseason. So it's pretty telling that they don't seem to be that interested in bringing back Swanson unless his price comes down, IMO.
x10000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Swanson makes sense for the Cardinals, not the the Cubs
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Obvious hypothetical….would you prefer Swanson on a 6 year deal or Correa on a 12 year deal. Assume money Swanson is at $24M (a little below Bogaerts) and Correa is at $30M (a little above Turner).
Personally I think there is a large difference between the 2 but I don’t think either puts us over the top without additional signings. I think Swanson for 6 years gives us a chance to make additional moves without the waste at the end of the deal.
I have always felt Swanson was most likely for the Cubs due to his wife living here for a decent chunk of the year. No matter what Swanson ultimately signs for he will have enough money for himself a several generations of Swansons to come so he might as well go where he wants to be. Im assuming he wants to be near his wife.
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I agree that Swanson doesn't make a lot of sense if one focuses only on 2023. But for the longer term, having a solid SS locked in, allowing second base to become a major strength, makes a lot of sense. It doesn't guarantee a competitive team down the road, but it contributes significantly towards that goal.
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If Swanson is getting a 6 year contract, I don’t want him, period. I’d rather have Correa at $15/$500.
If you’re not signing Correa, then just sign Jean Segura to a 2 year deal to play 2B. You’re getting a similarly valuable player for 2023-24 as you would get in Swanson, and you don’t needlessly move Hoerner off SS for a player who might not be as good as him defensively.
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br, who in the next 4 years is the shortstop who will come on the market that you would prefer more?
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No way Swanson is getting just a 6 yr deal in this climate.
Going into the off-season, I would have been happy with any of the big 4 SS’s. However, given how hot the market is, there’s likely no player who’s seen his price tag shoot up as much as Swanson.
If you’re going to overpay for a player, it makes much more sense to do so for someone who has a real shot at being consistently elite, vs just consistently good. You’ve only got 25 spots on the MLB roster, and that means players who grade out further to the right on the performance bell curve are extremely valuable.
If Correa can stay healthy, he’s got a real shot of going into the HOF. Swanson just doesn’t.
Had the market not gone through the roof, I’d still be content with either Swanson or Correa.
Now I’m pretty firmly Camp Correa.
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I also much prefer Correa, but I think Swanson would be a very positive addition if we can't get Correa.
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Don’t think there’s anybody here who prefers Swanson over Correa, is there?
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If Swanson needs more than 7 years I would pass. Keep Hoerner at SS. See if Madrigal can hit .300, not K much and stay healthy. Spend the money on Rodon and/or Senga or bank it for next year.
Eventually I would like to see this team built to last as opposed to having a windown, rebuild, window, rebuild.....
Signing Swanson for more than 7 years or Correa to 11+ isn't going to allow us to be a consistent winner. We will always be saddled with albatross contracts.
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Don’t think there’s anybody here who prefers Swanson over Correa, is there?
I don't think anyone prefers Swanson over Correa, but if we can sign Swanson for 50% of the years I could see how that would help the Cubs. It wouldn't offer as much today, but it wouldn't hurt nearly as much down the road.
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Don’t think there’s anybody here who prefers Swanson over Correa, is there?
Unless his fiance is posting here under a weird username.
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What I’m hoping is happening now is that Cubs have a line to Swanson—with both sides sitting tight on that—with Swanson aware that Cubs want Correa situation to play out first, up or down. If Correa doesn’t work out, Swanson ready to sign with Cubs.
No clue if that’s the case of course but hoping so. Think that kind of scenario would have to be resolved in next few days.
Don’t really grasp the argument that signing Swanson isn’t a positive move. Swanson is coming off a 6 WAR season but he’s not getting a 6 WAR contract. Nobody expects 6 WAR from him regularly. Seems reasonable he will be a 4ish WAR guy for a few seasons, maybe 3 WAR after that, and league average at the end.
That kind of value is not Correa value for sure. And CBJ’s point about having a few .800 OPS guys in lineup is well taken. But, that’s what 1B and DH is for: bangers at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum. Those positions are TBD. Corner OF spots might be wide open in a couple years. Or, If Happ is re-signed, he could be .800 OPS guy. 3B is wide open for offense. Lots of ways to get more offense over time and during duration of a Swanson contract. Contreras could have been one of those .800 guys (but enough with that already).
Notion that having a very nice (but not great) SS with some pop and GG defense is an impediment—I don’t get that.
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Wasn't there earlier speculation that the Cubs would sign two of the shortstops? Speculation was that it was Boegarts and Swanson. Maybe it's Correa and Swanson.
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...Signing Swanson for more than 7 years or Correa to 11+ isn't going to allow us to be a consistent winner. We will always be saddled with albatross contracts.
Good thought.
But to explore a possible counter-arguement: Doesn't every good team still have some contract commitments that aren't productive.
-Phillies had ~$35M between Didi Gregorius, Jeury Familia, McCutcheon, Knebel.
-Houston had ~$42 between Greinke, Odirizi, Brantley, Baez, Castro, Goodrum.
So *IF* its 2031-32-33, after another decade of inflation, would ~$32 on Correa be an unproductive contract that we might not be able to work around?
Maybe in 10 years, the team payroll will be >$320, and ~$32 would be <10%?
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Reb, what kind of assurances would the Cubs have to give Swanson to keep him waiting? If Correa signs here, Swanson could be sqrued. If he doesn't, do you guarantee an extra year or $$$ for waiting?
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br, who in the next 4 years is the shortstop who will come on the market that you would prefer more?
If it's not Correa, I don't know. But that doesn't mean I want to default to Swanson because he's the only other guy available now.
Swanson is coming off a great year. But it was driven by an outlier defensive season (Fangraphs says he produced more than twice as much defensive value in 2022 than he did in any other season of his career), so you can't count on him repeating that. And despite good defense so far, it's not clear he's a shortstop beyond the next couple of years. He has one of the worst throwing arms of any shortstop in baseball, which will really limit his value once he starts losing range & athleticism.
He has been a good-not-great hitter over the last few years, and those guys often become average-or-below hitters once they get into their 30s.
Swanson makes the Cubs better in the next 2 years, but he's not likely to put up close to the MVP-level numbers the Cubs would need to meaningfully move the needle in those years. By 2025 or 2026, though, he's probably a league average shortstop at best and someone the Cubs wish wasn't making $20-25 million a year. So I just don't see much more value in Swanson over a two year stopgap.
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.... Think that kind of scenario would have to be resolved in next few days....
I imagine Boras is in a wonderful spot, and he'll wait for a while.
Assuming he's already got ≥2 really good offers, he can just wait. Yes, one might sign Swanson and pull out. But otherwise, no bidder is going to call next week and reduce their existing offer by years or millions; the existing bids will at worst stay on the table. If Boras waits, there's a fair chance that a bidder might improve their offer. To be patient, of course he's got to have bids plural, such that one might pull out and go with Dansby, and he'll still have bids left.
But I can easily imagine him stretching Correa out for a LONG time.
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Reb, what kind of assurances would the Cubs have to give Swanson to keep him waiting? If Correa signs here, Swanson could be sqrued. If he doesn't, do you guarantee an extra year or $$$ for waiting?
Well, let’s say you give Swanson a conditional offer that’s better than anything else he has on the table elsewhere right now. He wants that top deal and maybe willing to wait a little bit (especially since he’d be last man standing in any case if Correa signs first).
If second best-offer club demands an answer at some point in the meantime, Swanson agrees to give Cubs 24 hours (or whatever) to fish or cut bait. And, if he gets better offer than Cubs standing offer, he gives Cubs 24 hours to raise Cubs offer. In other words, he’s willing to sit tight for a time while giving Cubs a chance if conditions change.
If Craig is correct that Boras is going to string this out, then this kind of thing probably wouldn’t work. Maybe Cubs are so intent on Correa, Cubs willing to play Craig’s Boras game. And willing to lose out on Swanson if need be. Or, Cubs can tell Boras we need your answer to our offer—presumably an offer better than anybody else in this scenario—by a date-certain or off the table and Cubs pivot to Swanson.
Spitballing here, obviously.
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The value of excellent middle infield defense will be amplified by the limits on shifting. All the more reason to bring in Correa (or if that fails Swanson).
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Wouldn't that be all the more reason to bring in Swanson rather than Correa, if the reports that Swanson is the better fielder are correct?
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Why would Swanson ever agree to terms early with the Cubs?
Here's what's going to happen. Once Correa signs, all the clubs still with $$$ to spend looking to make a splash (and there are a lot, it seems) now have just one, single, premium-ish, position player FA available: Swanson. The next-best available FA position player is... Benintendi? Oh, you need an IF? Then you're dropping down to Turner (is he still IF??) or Segura.
Swanson is just going to wait for the market to come to him, because pretty soon he's going to be the only player worth a front-page headline. Factor in the inflated salaries we're seeing this offseason, and I think Swanson is going to get an absolutely stupid amount of money, relative to the kind of player he is.
If the Cubs can't get Correa, I'm with br: pivot to Segura *really* quickly. Then go get Rodon.
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They’re both excellent fielders.
I really don’t want anyone playing 2B for the Cubs next season except Nico. We are going to need his range and glove (and arm) in this new world of non-shifting.
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Swanson has *one* year of full-season baseball in which he's been an above average hitter. Last year. Swanson has *one* year of full-season baseball in which he's been an elite defender. Last year.
Swanson doesn't have an extraordinary kit of tools that he's only just developed into. Instead, he's always been a more-than-the-sum-of-his-parts kind of player, and a good one, no doubt. But 2022 was peak Swanson.
Early in the offseason, projections were something like $140M/6yrs on Swanson's contract. I would have been happy signing Swanson at or near those numbers. But now I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 165/7 or even 185/8.
At those rates, I'd much rather the Cubs get Segura.
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If they don't get a shortstop, I don't want them to acquire a second baseman. Put the money in the rotation and at DH/1B/3B. Play Morel at 2B.
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With all the concern about the change in shift rules this year, don't forget they're making bases slightly bigger. Given how many plays are decided by inches at first base, arm strength at SS and 3B may be much more important this year too.
But even if there isn't much impact from the bigger bases, Swanson's throwing arm is a concern. He ranked #48 in average velocity on his throws from shortstop (minimum 100 throws). He was about 6.5 mph below league average:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=arm_ss&team=
All the guys around him in the rankings are utility guys you'd prefer to have playing another position (Garrett Hampson, David Fletcher, Dylan Moore, Danny Mendick). Granted, Swanson obviously stands out from them because he has much more range and is much more athletic. But I think you have to be at least a little concerned that his lack of throwing arm will prevent him from remaining a strong defensive SS long term.
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Okay, one week you go to a party (or in Curt's case an escort service) and there are three Drop Dead Gorgeous women and one Very Attractive woman there.
Next week, just one Very Attractive woman. You say: "who needs Very Attractive, where's Drop Dead Gorgeous?---what a disappointment!!
So, if Dansby Swanson was the only free agent SS on the market this off-season and Cubs signed him at whatever he gets, guessing that the Swanson naysayers would be carrying a different tune.
But, when you have Drop Dead Gorgeous Correa, Turner, Bogaerts at the party, maybe you get goo-goo eyed compared to the typical party?
Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's my theory. The no-Swanson talk is more about the unusual SS context of this off-season, not so much about Swanson.
For me, Swanson is not a one-season good hitter. He's a 25 HR guy who hits .265 playing shortstop. At a typical party, that is very good stuff. I look at Swanson as a guy who was a disappointment early career (given his draft position) but has turned things around last three seasons. He has hit 25 homers, 27 homers, and 10 homers in a 60-game season, over last three seasons. Not a .300 hitter. A .265 hitter. If he was a .300 hitter, he'd be Correa. He's not Correa. You're not paying for Correa. You're paying for Swanson.
Nor is he a one-season outstanding defender. 2 of past 3 seasons, Swanson has had more OAA than Lindor. 3 of 5 past seasons, Swanson had more DRS than Lindor. Not saying he's better than Lindor but is in the conversation.
So, you have a 25 homer, .265 hitting superb SS defender. That's a catch at the typical party. If you can nab Drop Dead Gorgeous at the party, by all means, yes. But, why go home alone?
Now, getting back to Curt's escort service party, yes, that's a pricey catch. It's costing you. But, that's the market today. And, it's extremely likely to continue to get pricier going into the future. So, if you can find a place to go with Very Attractive, hey, maybe it's the day to go all in.
Was formerly agnostic but think I have found religion because coming away empty-handed isn't good for the club or the fan base.
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In a sense, you know, baseball salaries are a relative construct. Players are worth what teams decide they're worth. If Judge is a $40 million player, that's what guys like Judge are worth in today's market. If the Cubs unilaterally decide they're only interested in what seems reasonable to them and "intelligent spending", they're basically engaging in a circular firing squad. That's not what a big market club is supposed to do.
Compounding this is that the system is set up to punish the Cubs for spending more than their small-market rivals in the division, and rewarding those rivals to help them beat us. If we don't massively outspend the other teams in the Central we're fighting with both hands tied behind our back.
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In all this turmoil about Dansby, makes me wonder. Besides outrageous salaries and number of years, are you naysayers also giving out no trade contracts and no team or player opt outs? It's like if we get the wrong shortstop we're stuck with him until 2091.Nonsense.
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Don't the Braves already have multiple pricey long-term commitments? Maybe they're not financially ready/able to add another one.
Plus they have a young stud in Vaughn Grissom who mostly played SS in the minors and looked great at the plate as a rookie.
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Why would Swanson ever agree to terms early with the Cubs?
Here's what's going to happen. Once Correa signs, all the clubs still with $$$ to spend looking to make a splash (and there are a lot, it seems) now have just one, single, premium-ish, position player FA available: Swanson. The next-best available FA position player is... Benintendi? Oh, you need an IF? Then you're dropping down to Turner (is he still IF??) or Segura.
Swanson is just going to wait for the market to come to him, because pretty soon he's going to be the only player worth a front-page headline. Factor in the inflated salaries we're seeing this offseason, and I think Swanson is going to get an absolutely stupid amount of money, relative to the kind of player he is.
If the Cubs can't get Correa, I'm with br: pivot to Segura *really* quickly. Then go get Rodon.
It isn't quite that simple. Yes, if the top three are all signed, then Swanson is all that is left. On the other hand, the top three teams that were willing to spend the most money, all not have shortstops, and are no longer driving the bidding up. The last one to sign does not always get a better deal.
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If they don't get a shortstop, I don't want them to acquire a second baseman. Put the money in the rotation and at DH/1B/3B. Play Morel at 2B.
I agree. I could easily live with a Hoerner/Morel keystone combo with Rodon on the starting staff. Morel may well add more offense to the team than Swanson does, and I would like to see him settle in at one position to try to excel at it. I think this supersub stuff is highly overrated. There are very few Zobrists out there, and very few teams that really need one.
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Morel hit .194 with a .645 OPS in the second half and ranked 58th out of 82 in OAA for 2B with at least 50 chances last season. Penciling him in as the everyday 2B is not a move you make if you're remotely serious about trying to compete.
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Im in favor of signing Swanson and think we ultimately will but I also believe the contract will end up bad.
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Morel hit .194 with a .645 OPS in the second half and ranked 58th out of 82 in OAA for 2B with at least 50 chances last season. Penciling him in as the everyday 2B is not a move you make if you're remotely serious about trying to compete.
At some point, you have to let your talented youngsters play and grow.
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Morel hit .194 with a .645 OPS in the second half and ranked 58th out of 82 in OAA for 2B with at least 50 chances last season. Penciling him in as the everyday 2B is not a move you make if you're remotely serious about trying to compete.
It is if you believe that the talent he showed in the first half of the season can be brought out in future seasons. Regardless of the individual half, Morel had a very good rookie season. It is not at all unusual for a 22 year old kid with talent to struggle in his first year. I'm glad that the Cubs didn't discard Maddux after he performed poorly his first year.
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As Cubs wait on the shortstop market to shake out,they are working on adding other pieces.Trey Mancini has been a player of interest.He brings both versatility and character.Catcher and starting P still a priority.They have talked Kodai Senga with agent Joel Wolfe.--Levine
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Morel hit .194 with a .645 OPS in the second half and ranked 58th out of 82 in OAA for 2B with at least 50 chances last season. Penciling him in as the everyday 2B is not a move you make if you're remotely serious about trying to compete.
Swanson had a .702 OPS in the second half.
Hoyer at the start of the off season talked about good teams blowing out other teams. If you bring in Swanson you are looking at a team that is going to try and win 1 run low score games. The error bar on that type of team is huge. The easy answer is we’ll just get the offense at 1B/3B/DH. Look at Fangraphs and see how many guys had an OPS above .800 and who is available in the next few years. It isn’t a long list.
Correra or bust. You then have to continue to add studs the next couple years in free agency or the Cubs are going to have to be really amazing at drafting in the middle/late first round to get those studs.
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I just want to say this sort of spirited debate that makes this board so worthwhile. Thanks guys.
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The easy answer is we’ll just get the offense at 1B/3B/DH.
This is doable, but it's much harder if you've spent $25 on a less-than-offensively-elite shortstop.
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I just want to say this sort of spirited debate that makes this board so worthwhile. Thanks guys.
C'mon, Ron. Get serious. This is some dopey stuff coming from all sides.
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Swanson had a .702 OPS in the second half.
Hoyer at the start of the off season talked about good teams blowing out other teams. If you bring in Swanson you are looking at a team that is going to try and win 1 run low score games. The error bar on that type of team is huge. The easy answer is we’ll just get the offense at 1B/3B/DH. Look at Fangraphs and see how many guys had an OPS above .800 and who is available in the next few years. It isn’t a long list.
Correra or bust. You then have to continue to add studs the next couple years in free agency or the Cubs are going to have to be really amazing at drafting in the middle/late first round to get those studs.
So a 60 points higher OPS while playing statistically the best defense in the NL at SS is equivalent to a .645 OPS playing among the worst at 2B. Got it.
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At some point, you have to let your talented youngsters play and grow.
Morel will play plenty as a super-utility guy, which is where his performance last season dictates he should be. He was bad defensively everywhere he played and bad offensively for half the season, and he was never an elite prospect. I don't think you commit a critical position to him as an everyday player when there are better options available, and I don't think that's inconsistent with committing to young talent. When PCA - who is an elite prospect and plays outstanding defense - comes up, you can commit to letting him play through his struggles. Apples and oranges.
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C'mon, Ron. Get serious. This is some dopey stuff coming from all sides.
Well, that is what makes it so entertaining. 😉
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Morel will play plenty as a super-utility guy, which is where his performance last season dictates he should be. He was bad defensively everywhere he played and bad offensively for half the season, and he was never an elite prospect. I don't think you commit a critical position to him as an everyday player when there are better options available, and I don't think that's inconsistent with committing to young talent. When PCA - who is an elite prospect and plays outstanding defense - comes up, you can commit to letting him play through his struggles. Apples and oranges.
Well, to begin with, if you have a very athletic guy who was bad defensively everywhere he played, perhaps a super utility role is not the one for him.
More importantly...
If you only do that with your elite prospects, you'll get stuck in a cycle of paying free agent market prices for mostly past-their-prime veterans to be average (+/-) regulars. That is not a sustainable, long term strategy. You'll notice that the Dodgers and Astros, for example, don't do a lot of that.
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Cubs signed Eric Stout to a minor league deal with an invite…
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Cubs signed Eric Stout to a minor league deal with an invite…
I think this is a misunderstanding. Jed was at the bar and ordered a stout. Funny how these rumors spread.
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Well, to begin with, if you have a very athletic guy who was bad defensively everywhere he played, perhaps a super utility role is not the one for him.
More importantly...
If you only do that with your elite prospects, you'll get stuck in a cycle of paying free agent market prices for mostly past-their-prime veterans to be average (+/-) regulars. That is not a sustainable, long term strategy. You'll notice that the Dodgers and Astros, for example, don't do a lot of that.
They also don’t do a lot of turning over everyday roles to unproven prospects who never hit that much in the minors and aren’t elite defenders.
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They also don’t do a lot of turning over everyday roles to unproven prospects who never hit that much in the minors and aren’t elite defenders.
That's mostly because they are and have been top notch at the amateur player procurement and development game.
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That's mostly because they are and have been top notch at the amateur player procurement and development game.
Okay. So that means if you’re not, you have two choices - you can use the resources available to you as one of the most profitable franchises in sports and get good players externally, or you can play guys who probably aren’t good enough because they’re cheap, pray for a miracle, and snack on popcorn watching better organizations hold their championship parades every year.
By all means, build the infrastructure around player development. Try and get where those teams are. But in the meantime, act like the schoolyard bully the competitive balance system requires you to be.
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Okay. So that means if you’re not, you have two choices - you can use the resources available to you as one of the most profitable franchises in sports and get good players externally, or you can play guys who probably aren’t good enough because they’re cheap, pray for a miracle, and snack on popcorn watching better organizations hold their championship parades every year.
The fallacy in that argument is that the $15-ish million age 33 Jean Segura (as an example) is a better use of resources than taking a shot with a second-tier young player that you believe in. Why not put that money toward the difference between Senga and Smyly?
I know, I know...Ricketts is a billionaire, so why can't we have both? That's a fine theoretical argument for complaining purposes, but it doesn't address the reality of the situation.
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Okay. So that means if you’re not, you have two choices - you can use the resources available to you as one of the most profitable franchises in sports
You must have access to information that most of us don't have. Can you tell us how much profit the Cubs have made in the past year? Two years? Three years? A link would be nice.
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Here's our lefthander
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35220178/lhp-cole-hamels-feels-healthy-surgeries-eyes-comeback
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So a 60 points higher OPS while playing statistically the best defense in the NL at SS is equivalent to a .645 OPS playing among the worst at 2B. Got it.
So 60 OPS points and defense is worth $20+ million a year, got it. That was a wRC+ of 94 for Dansby.
This is doable, but it's much harder if you've spent $25 on a less-than-offensively-elite shortstop.
The total combined number of 1B/3B/DH who qualified and had an OPS> .800: 20
Of those 20, Christian Walker, Deavers and Machado are the only ones that might be available in the next 3 years.
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I don't have any problem with the Cubs taking Swanson if it means they really pursue Ohtani or Soto next year.
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I don't have any problem with the Cubs taking Swanson if it means they really pursue Ohtani or Soto next year.
Soto is two years away from free agency.
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You can never start the pursuit too early.
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You must have access to information that most of us don't have. Can you tell us how much profit the Cubs have made in the past year? Two years? Three years? A link would be nice.
https://www.totalsportal.com/list/mlb-teams-with-highest-revenue/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_MLB_clubs
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https://www.totalsportal.com/list/mlb-teams-with-highest-revenue/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_MLB_clubs
You must have had access to information literally everyone with an internet connection has access to.
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Cubs and Dansby
https://www.mlb.com/news/dansby-swanson-rumors?partnerId=zh-20221210-779085-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20221210-779085-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=JBDRp8j%2BC2jeGngNjfJ%2BNpfsehMuyCRZcoShIWk5cTOJTGPIN%2FEyU7EtlgRy3TC9&bt_ts=1670679423009
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I saw a tweet that Morosi was saying Dansby could get $200 million. He would fit in a lot better with the Cardinals, since they already have offensive studs.
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This is both weird and irrelevant, but there is, believe it or not, an assessment of "winners" of the offseason so far from MLB.com that has the Cubs as #3, behind the Padres and the Cards. That should make everyone feel better. ;)
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-hot-stove-winners-in-2022-offseason?partnerId=zh-20221210-779085-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20221210-779085-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=6fN7Ybq6xF0WEFWRCpuo%2BW9lhT2xhMom4xWmCOEsWtLtiPi8sMZUw1vdEF7rn7YU&bt_ts=1670681529009
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Kind of a weird assessment there, Ron. He appears to believe that the Cubs would be a sleeper contender for a wild card finish even if they don't acquire a SS. Hard to see that.
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An interesting video clip with Ian Happ, Zach Short & Dakota Mekkes from the compound on the question of whether you would take less money to play with a team that puts you in a better situation?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1601259617887039488
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Bleacher Nation @BleacherNation
Bruce Levine on The Score this morning talking about how the money is there, but 8, 9, 10 years might not be "intelligent spending." That is, to my ear, a new message for him since the start of the shortstop chase - calling back to "intelligent spending" and talking about years.
If this is true, I'll call back to something that was posted yesterday from a Mooney article:
3. "Jed Hoyer’s baseball operations group will have to readjust and react to .... market forces."
Refusing to go to 8-10 years on a star player when the money is available is just a failure to "react to to market forces," IMO. That's what it costs to get star players. If he's going to refuse to ever spend what it takes to get elite players, then I'm not sure this team will ever be truly competitive again until there's a new GM who is willing to go out of his comfort zone occasionally.
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Just to be clear, was that quote about "8, 9, 10 years might not be "intelligent spending" from Bruce Levine or Hoyer?
If it was Levine, then he's presumably just speculating. Perhaps we'll find out
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Just to be clear, was that quote about "8, 9, 10 years might not be "intelligent spending" from Bruce Levine or Hoyer?
If it was Levine, then he's presumably just speculating. Perhaps we'll find out
Thanks, Ron. Yes, a whole lot of "just speculating" that happens.
I also kinda sympathize with Hoyer re the "intelligent spending" phrase. It seemed perfectly reasonable and appropriate wording in the context of that press conference when I listened to it. But now that gets quoted, often pejoratively, over and over and over. I kinda feel like it's been unfair.
"Perhaps we'll find out" will apply this year if and only if he signs Correa. If he does, obviously we'll know Hoyer was willing to go long. But if he does not, we'll never really know why not. If Correa goes elsewhere, it could be Cubs holding line on years yes; but it could also be a dozen other factors.
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Intelligent spending=continuing to act like a small market team.
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There is nothing wrong with advocating for "intelligent spending" as long as you realize that it isn't intelligent to spend like a mid-market team when you have the resources to go big.
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Giants, Twins, Cubs are among teams in on Carlos Correa, who has the advantages of being a little younger than Bogaerts and Turner and also having no qualifying offer.--Heyman
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I've gotta admit, *IF* the cubs hypothetically added both Correa and Senga, I'd be really fired up and hopeful. I think we'd have a very plausible chance to be very good. Right now, this season, not years away. Even *if* that meant scrambling and leaving all other holes untouched.
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All it takes is making the playoffs to have a chance. Adding Correa and Senga would give us that chance.
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I wonder what Mancini will end up signing for?
He’d fill a gap at both 1B and DH, as well as OF if needed, and by all accounts would be a quality guy in the clubhouse/dugout.
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I wonder what Mancini will end up signing for?
He’d fill a gap at both 1B and DH, as well as OF if needed, and by all accounts would be a quality guy in the clubhouse/dugout.
With Wisdom's ability to play 1B, wouldn't we prefer Conforto for the left handed bat and greater upside?
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We should have matched or beaten the Guardians 2/$33M deal to Josh Bell who switch hits
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Cole Hamels is trying to make a comeback. Any interest in taking a no-risk chance on him? It sounds like he's only looking for a minor league invite and he says he's open to pitching out of the bullpen.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/cole-hamels-planning-comeback-in-2023.html
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Nope.
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If the Cubs miss out on Correra would anybody have interest in trading for Javy?
In the FWIW category. Tom Loxas, who used to blog, is saying he got a text that the Cubs are close on somebody. He doesn’t have a name and his guess is Mancini.
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No on Javy.
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It depends upon what the cost is. I don't think he is worth his current contract, so there would have to be others involved in the trade. If we could get him at a net of about 17 per year, he would be a decent second base addition. Assuming the length of his contract isn't obscene.
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You could probably have little cost to get him and maybe the Tigers throw in a sweet Dr to take him back if you took the 5/$124 million left.
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With Wisdom's ability to play 1B, wouldn't we prefer Conforto for the left handed bat and greater upside?
Yeah, definitely prefer Conforto, for your reasons…I was thinking along the lines of “if we signed Correa/Senga, and had $x left to spend”…as mentioned a few posts prior…
I’m assuming Conforto will get a better deal than Mancini.
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I’m assuming Conforto will get a better deal than Mancini.
I'd imagine Conforto is ~2x Mancini.
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I wonder what Mancini will end up signing for?
He’d fill a gap at both 1B and DH, as well as OF if needed, and by all accounts would be a quality guy in the clubhouse/dugout.
There's no universe where adding Mancinin isn't a classic Poor Jed Hoyer dumpster dive. He's thoroughly mediocre.
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If we sign Mancini I hope its for a bench role.
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Why is there absolutely nothing connecting the Cubs - in desperate need of LH bats - to Michael Brantley? Still a pretty good hitter, can handle most of the DH role while still playing a serviceable LF if needed. Obviously he'd cost more than Mancini but you know, there's a reason for that.
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Perhaps with Bellinger, Happ and Mervis, he is not quite a desperate as you are. And perhaps he is not quite done with the free agent and trade markets yet.
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Brantley is a free agent.
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Sharma has a new piece on Hoyer’s plan for 2023 and how he can he add an impact bat.
He explores a variety of potential options, including the remaining possibility of signing Correa, potential trades, a short-term focus on pitching and defense, by adding Swanson, etc.
https://theathletic.com/3987503/2022/12/11/cubs-jed-hoyer-carlos-correa/?source=emp_shared_article
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Sharma's explanation on Senga's decision to go to the Mets:
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
Replying to
@NickPlynfart
Senga wanted to go to a team that's in a big market (yes) and shown it will win now (not so much). Money wasn't the deciding factor
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I read the Cubs offered him more somewhere.
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Cubs aren’t a big market team right now. At some point you start to judge people by their behavior. Senga read the situation correctly.
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Imagine that, signing good players has a compounding effect which makes more good players want to come to your team. Would Senga have signed with the Cubs if they'd just spent the money on Correa last week? Probably not...but it definitely wouldn't have hurt.
We'll see what the team looks like at the end of the offseason. But it's really starting to feel like Hoyer is in over his head, and his job needs to be on the line this season.
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It's too early to make a judgment about Hoyer, IMO. I'm waiting to see what the roster looks like a bit further down the road.
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Keith Law was in the Atheltic baseball podcast and they had a discussion of what are the Cubs doing.
Likes Tailion and thinks there still might be another level he can go up.
He thinks Wesneski, Steele, Thompson are more BOR and that maybe 1 could become a MOR.
Reinterred concerns about Mervis being a stud, but thinks he can contribute to a good team
Discussed Correra and Swanson. Correra moves the needle and Swanson doesn’t.
Mostly they had no clue what the Cubs are doing.
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It's too early to judge right now. But if he leaves money on the table again this offseason, fails to really improve this team, and they go on to finish under .500 again in 2023, I don't know why it the Cubs should keep Hoyer around.
At that point, the only thing that should save his job is a huge step forward in the minor league season (like to a consensus top 2-3 farm system). IMO.
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It's too early to make a judgment about Hoyer, IMO. I'm waiting to see what the roster looks like a bit further down the road.
P2, how many years down the road are you thinking? 1-2 years? Or with this being year 3, would you be OK with waiting till year 5 or beyond?
Or were you meaning to wait to see what Hoyer still does this offseason, and maybe if he can add Swanson, Trey Mancini, Christian Vasquez, you'll judge it good?
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I'm waiting for another few months. Not years.
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Sharma on Correa (and remember, he's s shill):
“handing out 10-plus years isn’t what Hoyer wants to do (this offseason), regardless of what the market is dictating at the moment.”
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I guess Gordon Wittenmyer is a shill too? Just curious, is there anyone who is not a shill?
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I guess Gordon Wittenmyer is a shill too? Just curious, is there anyone who is not a shill?
Wittenmeyer didn't say that, Sharma did. Stay on target.
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Wittenmeyer didn't say that, Sharma did. Stay on target.
No, he did not. The point was that Wittenmyer, who has been pretty consistently cynical about the Cubs, says the Cubs are seriously pursuing Correa, and that he is their main target.
Just because a reporter has a less cynical view about the Cubs than you does not make him a shill.
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Think about this. #Cubs probably could have signed Carlos Correa for 10 years + 300 million last winter. Had they done that there would only be 9 years + 270 million left. Ask yourself this? Could you get him for that amount of money this winter? No shot!--Kaplan
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Re: Gordo and Sharma, the Occam’s Razor explanation is pretty straightforward. First off the Cubs are like Reinsdorf’s Bulls - clearly some “reporters” are mouthpieces, and some are out of the loop. At the beginning of the offseason, the Cubs misread the market - and how it perceived them - and fed outsider guys like Wittenmeyer the line that the big spending was coming. Once they realized no one was giving then a national historical monument discount and players other teams actually wanted were being priced out of their range, they turned to the usual sources to get the message out that prudence would prevail and “roll it over” was back in vogue.
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So reports from Wittenmyer and others that the Cubs are one of three top teams in pursuit of Correa is all just successful manipulation by the Cubs?
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So reports from Wittenmyer and others that the Cubs are one of three top teams in pursuit of Correa is all just successful manipulation by the Cubs?
I think the initial reports were just that, and at the time at least that was the perception they wanted to get out there (and it may even have been true, at what they thought the market - and their place in it- was). I think what’s happening now is you’re seeing the more familiar proxies pitching the “intelligent spending/roll it over” message, and some of the outsiders still aren’t changing their tune.
Conjecture, obviously. But based on available evidence and historical trends, it seems very much the most likely explanation.
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I would be thrilled to see the Cubs add Swanson even if I didn’t think he’s an outstanding player, just for how apoplectic it would make some people. But I don’t think even that would be enough at this point to change the perception of the franchise.
The calculus with Correa is an interesting one. Whatever the final number is - 12/360, 9/300, whatever - it will be a huge deal. Objectively speaking, he’s probably not even among the best and most impactful half-dozen or so position players in the game. By some measure, an “overpay” - except that it’s the market that decides what an overpay is.
The problem for Ricketts is, how much does he lose by the Cubs being a bad product and fans increasingly viewing the organization negatively? There are obvious competitive considerations too, as the Senga situation likely bears out. But honestly, Ricketts’ is mainly worried about the money. For him, is the goodwill generated by signing Correa and banking some goodwill with the fanbase and potential Marquee viewers - not to mention how a marginally better team could do that too - worth “overpaying” for Correa in his eyes? Judging by what the insiders are pitching at the moment, it seems likely not. But if there’s enough of a backlash to that message, could his perception be changed?
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It's too early to judge right now. But if he leaves money on the table again this offseason, fails to really improve this team, and they go on to finish under .500 again in 2023, I don't know why it the Cubs should keep Hoyer around.
At that point, the only thing that should save his job is a huge step forward in the minor league season (like to a consensus top 2-3 farm system). IMO.
The Titans just fired their GM who never had a losing record, was coming off a year where they were the #1 seed in the AFC, and were in first place in their division. The owner made the absolute right call on it, though, and she read it correctly that the talent on the roster was getting worse and not better. At the end of the day, a personnel head has to be measured on results on the field. Sooner or later, Jed needs to step it up, or Ricketts needs to show the guts Amy Adams Strunk had with the Titans this past week.
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Peter Principle...a guy reaches his LID.
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I live in Tennessee and still dont know 10 Titans fans.
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It was not a good thing for Hoyer for the rumor to get out that Ricketts had given him the go ahead to spend. People are treating it as true. Makes Hoyer look worse.
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It was not a good thing for Hoyer for the rumor to get out that Ricketts had given him the go ahead to spend. People are treating it as true. Makes Hoyer look worse.
I don't think it's just a rumor because even Cubs executives are talking about it. This is Crane Kenney from a radio interview on Friday (kind of seems like they're a little annoyed Hoyer didn't spend his full budget last year):
The business is still healthy, and that left Jed (Hoyer) with a lot of money to spend this year – like last year, where he didn’t spend all the money he had last year because he didn’t see transactions that made sense to him. I hope there are transactions that make sense to us this year to spend all the money that he has. He’s gotten off to a good start. The goal is always the same – it’s to win another championship. If a player can help us get closer to that goal, I think you’re going to see him be very aggressive.
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It was not a good thing for Hoyer for the rumor to get out that Ricketts had given him the go ahead to spend. People are treating it as true. Makes Hoyer look worse.
But it makes it look like Hoyer’s fault if the money isn’t spent, not the owners’. And I think that’s why the ownership group made sure it got out there.
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Star free agent SS Dansby Swanson appears to be possibility for the Dodgers, where he could reunite with Freddie Freeman. Swanson, who married USWNT/Chicago Red Stars star Mallory Pugh Saturday, also has drawn interest from Cubs/others. Incumbent Braves remain stealthy or quiet.--Heyman
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Keith Law was in the Atheltic baseball podcast and they had a discussion of what are the Cubs doing.
…Discussed Correra and Swanson. Correra moves the needle and Swanson doesn’t.
We’ve discussed Correa and Swanson such much here that worth correcting the record as to what Law said about Correa and Swanson.
Law discussed Correa and Swanson and said Correa would move the needle a lot for the Cubs and Swanson not “as much” as Correa would. Law said Swanson would be an improvement and would help the Cubs.
That is very different than saying Swanson doesn’t move the needle.
Put another way, Law said the obvious: Swanson isn’t Correa (or Turner/Bogaerts). Think we all would agree on that. Swanson moves the needle less than Correa. But helps Cubs get better.
Law also noted that offseason is incomplete for Cubs re. SP. Law thought Chris Bassett would be a good addition for Cubs.
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He also said it wouldn’t excite him if he was a Cubs fan. Turner/Correra are one tier. He has concerns about Boegarts and his power. He is another tier. Swanson being clearly behind the other 3 and it is due concerns about the offense, not the defense.
If you want the Cubs to spend $100+ million on defense or to tick me off, cool. I still think it is a bad idea and is about the Cubs building a .500 team vs World Series team. Last time I checked a .500 Cubs team is an improvement over the last 2 years.
As for Bassitt he said he would provide innings and might not be worth the contract. It would also only make sense if the Cubs are trying to contend. If you are just looking for innings save the second pick and IFA money and sign Kluber or another veteran pitcher.
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As has been pointed out, I don't think anyone here prefers Swanson to Correa for the Cubs. Some (most?) of us would rather the Cubs sign Swanson if they do not get Correa because he improves the team not just next season but in the coming years. The money he will be paid should not meaningfully limit future options for improving the team's offense. Some, but not all of that improvement in coming years should come from within the system.
It remains to be seen whether the improvements ultimately made over the winter will make the Cubs contenders for a wild card position into the playoffs. But speaking for myself, I think it would be a significant step forward if the team got into the playoffs next season. Obviously there will be much more improvement required for them to become a championship caliber team.
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reb has argued that winter will be a disappointment if they don't get one of the shortstops. My view is that it will be a disappointment if they don't get one of the three plus-hitter SS's. 0/2 thus far, Correa still left.
But disappointments come in different degrees. So while settling for Swanson would be disappointing, it would be less disappointing than settling for Madrigal. Swanson isn't move-the-needle like Correa or a serious-bat SS would be, but he still moves the needle, somewhat, relative to Madrigal.
I agree with you, Ron, Swanson isn't Correa but he'd still help the Cubs this year, and probably for a couple of years beyond. I agree that with Swanson and other hole-fillers added, the Cubs will have a plausible shot at a winning season and perhaps the playoffs. Baseball is an uncertain game, of course, and possible differs from probable. Swanson+fillers could be a playoff team; or it could be a high-lottery team, who knows? But it could be fun to incrementally move the needle up the possibility/probability continuum.
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Perceptions are always fluid. It's entirely possible, perhaps probable, that Hoyer will roll over more cash, and run it back with Vasquez, Mancini, Madrigal, Wisdom, Morel, and Smyly. There's a decent chance that we'll have an awful offense, and be a high-lottery team.
But, this is a Buildican process that's going on. Yes, it's possible that Hoyer will add no move-the-needle-big stars; and that we'll be top-5 lottery. But it's also possible that the Cubs could win the division even without Correa. That the farm guys might stay healthy and show terrific progress. Maybe you catch LIAB, and Mancini and Bellinger both put up .800-OPS seasons, and Taillon and Smyly or Bassett, and Hendricks, and Stroman, and Steele, and Keegan all look very good. Morel might take a step, Mervis look like a real big-league hitter. Brennen gets healthy and looks like a value bat. They might roll into next offseason loaded with assets, both cash and young talent. Everything might be looking arrows-up.
I'm an optimist, and I hope we end up adding Correa. But if we don't, I'm still going to be very optimistic that the rebuild is moving in the right direction.
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Winning this year would help in other ways. Fault has been assigned that agents aren't expecting knockout offers from the Cubs. True. But the larger issue is winning. *If* the Cubs had hypothetically won the division this season and the arrow looked straight up for the future, Senga might not walk away when the Cubs made the higher offer. If Cubs had hypothetically won with arrow-up, Correa or Swanson tie-breakers might be pro-Cub rather than anti-Cub? When you've been bad, you lose ties. *IF* the Cubs have a successful 2023 season and get into the playoffs, I think suddenly the Cubs will be able to win their share of FA-offer ties. (This was true with Heyward, Zobrist and Lackey.).
Second, already being a playoff team better justifies one-man-away spending. *IF* the Cubs had won 90 games this season, Hoyer could more easily justify going crazy on Correa, using Phillies and Padres logic. We've got chances to make a lot of history now, let 2033 take care of itself. Instead, Hawkins says we aren't one-man-away..... yet. But let Mervis, PCA, Brennen, Brown, Wicks, Horton, Palencia have great years, and next year Hoyer-Hawkins may be 100% in one-man-away mindset?
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But let Mervis, PCA, Brennen, Brown, Wicks, Horton, Palencia have great years, and next year Hoyer-Hawkins may be 100% in one-man-away mindset?
Even if everything goes right and they do feel like they're "one-man-away" next year, I'm skeptical that player will be available. Ohtani is a free agent, but the Cubs probably aren't outbidding the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Padres for him. Machado is available, but it's unlikely Hoyer will be comfortable offering him a 8-10 year contract at age 31. So that leaves Devers, who isn't going to stick at 3B long term (he probably should already be a DH).
And if the farm system doesn't develop as much as hoped, another year has gone by without any progress at the major league level. At least Correa locks in some forward movement in 2023.
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Agree, lack of FA studs next year is all the more reason to sign one this winter. Plus adding Correa now would facilitate being that winning team this year that would then make it easier to recruit non-superstars like Senga in future.
Which is why I think the argument remains persuasive that pursuing Correa very hard this cycle is "intelligent spending".
But, Correa is a free agent. *IF* he hypothetically wants to take $40 less from somebody else because we're losers and they aren't, I can't blame him. And Hoyer can't control that.
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It remains to be seen whether the improvements ultimately made over the winter will make the Cubs contenders for a wild card position into the playoffs. But speaking for myself, I think it would be a significant step forward if the team got into the playoffs next season. Obviously there will be much more improvement required for them to become a championship caliber team.
My issues are where is the improvement going to come from? In the minors Davis and Alcantara are the only prospects that have a chance at being an impact bat, unless Law is really wrong about Mervis. None of them are in the Bryant class of studs. It won't be the draft unless the Cubs get lucky in the lottery or they find the next Corbin Carroll. IFA will be multiple years away. So that leaves free agency. If it isn't Correra then you are looking at next year where the premiere free agents are going to older except for Devers and Devers is going to have question marks. So if you can't spend on Correra who is it going to be?
Swanson makes the Cubs better, but the offense is still going to be bad. If you are relying on pitching and defense that is going to be a lot of close games. The error bar on close games is huge. Sometimes teams have amazing records in 1 run games and get into the wildcard. Most are around .500 and if you don't have a lot of blowout wins making the playoffs is hard. Sometimes though you can have really bad luck and be a have a horrible record in close games.
If there was a clear path to you add Swanson now and then x,y and z and you have a winner, sure then do that. That plan doesn't exist or it is so narrow on who you can add to make it work, it isn't a good idea.
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He also said it wouldn’t excite him if he was a Cubs fan.
Again, to correct the record, Law said Swanson wouldn’t excite him “as much” as Correa.
Not sure why it’s so hard to quote Law accurately but we get the point that Law has Correa as a better fit than Swanson, as everybody here does as well. No real news here.
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Sorry he didn't give % of excitement compared to Correra. Is it 5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 90%? If he thought it was a great idea, he wouldn't be putting qualifiers like that in front of it.
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My issues are where is the improvement going to come from? In the minors Davis and Alcantara are the only prospects that have a chance at being an impact bat, unless Law is really wrong about Mervis. None of them are in the Bryant class of studs. It won't be the draft unless the Cubs get lucky in the lottery or they find the next Corbin Carroll. IFA will be multiple years away. So that leaves free agency. If it isn't Correra then you are looking at next year where the premiere free agents are going to older except for Devers and Devers is going to have question marks. So if you can't spend on Correra who is it going to be?
Swanson makes the Cubs better, but the offense is still going to be bad. If you are relying on pitching and defense that is going to be a lot of close games. The error bar on close games is huge. Sometimes teams have amazing records in 1 run games and get into the wildcard. Most are around .500 and if you don't have a lot of blowout wins making the playoffs is hard. Sometimes though you can have really bad luck and be a have a horrible record in close games.
If there was a clear path to you add Swanson now and then x,y and z and you have a winner, sure then do that. That plan doesn't exist or it is so narrow on who you can add to make it work, it isn't a good idea.
Thoughts:
1. Get offense. Of the top 8 run-scoring teams in MLB, only Philly wasn't a top-4 playoff seed, and of course they went to WS. Scoring is the hardest and most precious thing in mlb.
2. Cubs were within 9-48 runs of the other four playoff teams.
Some incremental improvement can occur.
Madrigal > Madrigal. (If healthy, he's not going to be that bad again.)
Bellinger > Heyward/Ortega/Hermosilla. (Well, maybe. He *might* be even worse, but he could jump it a bunch).
Mervis > Schwindel/Rivas.
DH > Frazier/Reyes.
Hoerner >>> Madrigal
Swanson > Hoerner/Simmons.
Happ > Happ (His HR rate was WAY down last year. What if he maintained his other numbers but added 5-10 HR?)
Seiya > Seiya. (2nd-year adjustment is plausible.).
Bench > bench. (Cubs had 1152 PA among Simmons, Hermosillo, Frazier, Villar, Higgins, Heyward, McKinstry, Vargas. etc... There are a LOT of bench AB that could be improved in the anti-awful direction? (This is where my Miles Mastrobuoni bandwagon factors! :):):)
Wishful thinking, sure. But a lot of spots that might improve incrementally. With 12 playoff teams, if offense becomes average but that's the worst part of the team, winning the division or getting a wildcard seems possible?
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Leaving out the huge downgrade at catcher/DH from Willson.
Could a good defense/average offense/good pitching staff sneak in to the playoffs? Sure. It isn't a slam dunk.
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DOM
@DOM_Frederic
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22m
on 670,
@sahadevsharma
says jed doesnt want to spend bc he doesnt know if he will have $ down the line like what happened in 2018. so jed is nervous to spend, crane is saying we will be in the playoffs in ‘23 & tom says $ is there for jed to spend but cant be trusted. what a mess
Sharma channels Reb.
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
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6m
That's not what I said. It's not really something that can be summarized in a tweet, but essentially my point is the business side can say he has money, but it's natural to wonder, based on history (2018), if it suddenly stops coming if the team underperforms with a high payroll.
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On the plus side, maybe SF isn't going all-out for Correa, who knows. And if they don't, what is his market, exactly?
Correa didn't get what he wanted last winter, and this could drag on for weeks or months. Maybe the cheating has had some impact on his marketability, above and beyond with the Dodgers. You wouldn't think so but it's not unfair to wonder.
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Sorry he didn't give % of excitement compared to Correra. Is it 5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 90%? If he thought it was a great idea, he wouldn't be putting qualifiers like that in front of it.
Look, it’s a very simple thing to quote somebody accurately. It was not a complex thought that Law was conveying.
He said what he said. Just say what he said!
If I say I don’t like the Beatles “as much as” the Stones, I don’t want it said that I don’t like the Beatles. What I said was —-as much as the Stones. It’s a different meaning.
It’s not that Swanson “doesn’t move the needle.” It’s—not as much as Correa does. A difference.
Not % of excitement. Just what he said, without garbling or distortion or inadvertence or whatever. And, if it’s then corrected, just say thanks for the correction, maybe?
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Again, to correct the record, Law said Swanson wouldn’t excite him “as much” as Correa.
Not sure why it’s so hard to quote Law accurately but we get the point that Law has Correa as a better fit than Swanson, as everybody here does as well. No real news here.
Look, it’s a very simple thing to quote somebody accurately. It was not a complex thought that Law was conveying.
He said what he said. Just say what he said!
If I say I don’t like the Beatles “as much as” the Stones, I don’t want it said that I don’t like the Beatles. What I said was —-as much as the Stones. It’s a different meaning.
It’s not that Swanson “doesn’t move the needle.” It’s—not as much as Correa does. A difference.
Not % of excitement. Just what he said, without garbling or distortion or inadvertence or whatever. And, if it’s then corrected, just say thanks for the correction, maybe?
The exact quote "Correra is a difference maker, singing Swanson doesn't move the needle anywhere as much as Correra."
You're welcome.
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Just feels like time to break out the “this is fine” meme.
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Enough of Hoyer's smart spending BS. Let's pretend for a moment the Cubs really *are* going to sign Correa, no matter the cost.
At what point - $$$ and years - would you say, ok, that was too much? What's *your* limit to signing Correa?
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I'll set the floor at $360/12. Not saying that's my max. Just saying I know that, off the top of my head, I'm comfortable with at least that amount.
Who is spending more than that?
Or do you think that number is already too high?
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I don't really care how much they give him. They can give him as much as they feel they can afford. They have information about their finances and their financial projections that is not available to people outside the organization.
What I DON'T want to happen is to have another Heyward or two screwing up the teams abilities three or four years down the line, for the next half a dozen years. Especially with no trade contracts that kill us of they are bad, and opt out contracts that have them leave when they are actually earning their salaries.
It doesn't come down to JUST the years, or JUST the money. Assuming the players are worth their salary for the first couple of years:
I would much rather sign a 30 year old to a 10 year/15 million per year than the same 30 year old to a 10 year/ 35 million per year, if both had no trade contracts.
I would rather sign 30 year old to a 10 year/35 million per year contract if it had a full trade permission, than a 30 year old to a 10 year/ 15 million per year with a full or even partial no trade contract.
I don't want to sign ANY player to a long term contract with a short term opt out.
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For 12 years I think $360 would be getting close to my upper limit.
I’d rather trade a higher AAV for less years.
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Why no long term deals with short term opt outs? They are about as team friendly as deals get.
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I love the idea of short term opt outs. What do you have in mind, and, if you're amenable to the 360/12 floor, would including those opt outs reduce the value of the offer you'd be willing to extend Correa?
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Why no long term deals with short term opt outs? They are about as team friendly as deals get.
I don't like them because if the guy stinks, (Heyward) you have him forever, and if the guy is as good as you hope, he leaves just when you need him. I would probably feel better about it if we were on the verge of having a top tier team. That is at least two years away, in my opinion.
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If reports that Correa is prioritizing AAV over length of contract are true, I’d see if 8/270 or so could get it done. Willing to be creative with opt-outs and partial NTCs.
But you know, at some point you just have to sign a damn player. You can dither over potential downsides all day long, but that’s what free agency is - a risk. If you don’t take risks, you don’t get players. You take a risk, you “overpay” - but if you’re a serious organization you define the target, and you sign him. Right now we’re not a serious organization.
Take Vazquez for example. I don’t personally think he’s all that and a bag of chips, but arguably the best option among a weak FA lot of catchers. Obviously we wanted him. So why the hell did we lose him - to Minnesota, yet? Because you didn’t want to commit to 3 years, or because the AAV was a million higher than “intelligent”? In no universe should the deal Vazquez got (and then some) tie the Cubs’ hands financially in any way. We let Contreras walk (failing even to trade him) ostensibly because we wanted a different sort of catcher - a Vazquez sort. But we lost him - to Minnesota.
The same is true with trades - you have to take a risk. We’ve seen impact talent after impact talent traded in the last couple of years, and none of them to the Cubs. Right now, accurate or not, it’s very hard not to look at the situation and believe that the Cubs are indecisive and crippled by risk aversion (read, financial risk aversion). You can blame the owner or Hoyer (and there seems to be some scapegoating going on between them) but the bottom line is, what they’re doing isn’t working.
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Incidentally, Stroman seems to have gotten awfully quiet compared to a year ago. Not a lot of FA recruiting going on there any more. Probably the right move on his part, as he’ll likely be gone at the deadline anyway.
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The decision to part ways with Contreras evidently was long in the planning stages, given the apparent lack of contract negotiations with Contreras.
So, one would hope that his replacement would be long in the planning stages too, or at least not some kind of ad hoc reaction.
Maybe that kind of planning will reveal itself with a nice, new catcher this off-season.
But, I’m kind of getting the Ad Hoc Locomotion Vibes at the moment.
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Maybe the plan is for Ross to unretire and be a player-manager. That would save a few bucks.
If the Cubs have lost Bleachernation Bert and Cerami, you know things are getting ugly.
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Meanwhile, rumors of Swanson’s price likely being 200/8 are swirling.
That’s the number I said a few days ago, and that’s a much bigger “risk” IMO than the 360M I’ve floated for Correa.
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Meanwhile, rumors of Swanson’s price likely being 200/8 are swirling.
That’s the number I said a few days ago, and that’s a much bigger “risk” IMO than the 360M I’ve floated for Correa.
Not signing either of them is the ultimate risk. It’s basically guaranteed failure.
The Cubs with FA are like someone who needs to get from Point A to Point B by 5 PM for a party, and goes to buy a plane ticket. There’s one flight, and it leaves at 12:30. The Cubs say “well, I’ll take it but I want to leave at 2:00.” Someone else buys the ticket and they end up ridin’ the Dog. And missing the party. But at least it was cheaper!
The Cubs don’t get the privilege of deciding what the market is. They don’t even really get to decide what intelligent spending is - there’s really only spending to win and not spending to win. You either play the game by the rules of the market or you disqualify yourself before it even starts.
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I'll set the floor at $360/12. Not saying that's my max. Just saying I know that, off the top of my head, I'm comfortable with at least that amount.
Who is spending more than that?
Or do you think that number is already too high?
Logic and reason rarely enter into the MLB free agent market, but here's my calc.
To start with, on the merits as a baseball player, I don't think Correa should get a higher AAV than Trea Turner for a contract that takes him through age 40.
So, that's 300/11*13 = 355.
For each year Correa took off for a shorter contract length, I would bump the AAV by 5%.
Years/Guarantee/AAV
13/$355/$27.3
12/$344/$28.6
11/$331/$30.1
10/$316/$31.6
9/$298/$33.2
8/$278/$34.8
7/$256/$36.5
6/$230/$38.4
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@sahadevsharma says jed doesnt want to spend bc he doesnt know if he will have $ down the line like what happened in 2018. so jed is nervous to spend, crane is saying we will be in the playoffs in ‘23 & tom says $ is there for jed to spend but cant be trusted. what a mess
.....
Sahadev Sharma....That's not what I said. It's not really something that can be summarized in a tweet, but essentially my point is the business side can say he has money, but it's natural to wonder, based on history (2018), if it suddenly stops coming if the team underperforms with a high payroll.
I appreciate Sharma, but I think it's kinda silly? The connection between spending and revenue is natural in most businesses, universities, and personal finances. Earn less, spend less?
Why should Sharma think Hoyer is justifiably spooked by the notion that future payroll has some dependence on team success?
Theo thought they were going to be world-series regulars, with huge post-season revenues, and with Bryant and friends being national celebs with jersey sales galore for years. But after 2016, they won zero post-season series, and only won a single game (2017). There was no lasting glam nationally. So, wasn't it kinda natural that spending might reflect that?
I'm also not quite sure what Sharma's 2018 reference is. 2018-19-20 Theo was 4th, 2nd, and 3rd in mlb, despite the team being in steep decline. Did Sharma figure that winning a single post-season game in 2017 and then getting eliminated in one day in 2018, that the 2019 payroll should be rewarded far beyond 2nd in all of baseball?
Every GM in sports understands that 2028 payroll is uncertain and will depend on how well their team does. *IF* that uncertainty is freezing Hoyer, he's not the right man for the profession[size=78%]. [/size]
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Jim Bowden on Carlos Correa: "There have been indications the Twins and Cubs have the inside track, but it only takes one owner from another team to step up at the last minute to change the equation and pull off a deal."
Bowden on Dansby Swanson: "The Cubs appear to be the most likely to sign Swanson if they don’t get Carlos Correa."
https://theathletic.com/3996361/2022/12/13/mlb-free-agents-correa-rodon-swanson/?source=user_shared_article
I wish I could take anything Bowden says seriously.
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I'll set the floor at $360/12. Not saying that's my max. ....I'm comfortable with at least that amount....
Boras is in such a great spot just waiting on Correa and Rodon. We sometimes say that Hoyer should "outbid" the competition, and do whatever it takes. But Boras has such a nice situation in that "bidding" on FA's is secret. At an auction, people know what high bid is, and decide whether to outbid by a step. If that's not enough, they can bid again. But you always know how high to go to make high bid. Same if I'm playing pinochle or most other card games, I don't risk a 42-bid if I can get the bid at 28. I hear the other bid and then walk mind up as I dare.
But suppose Hoyer is tico, and he's fine with at least $360/12, and might be fine to elevate to $384/12 or $390/13. How does Hoyer decide what to do?
*He can't call Giants and Twins and ask, "hey, what was your bid? We'll outbid you, but I don't want to go higher than necessary!"
*I assume Boras isn't allowed to send Jed's offer to Yankees / Boston / Dodgers / Giants etc. to ask them to beat it.
*Nor can Jed call Boras, and say, "Hey, what's high?" and either get or believe the answer.
For example, imagine Jed offered Turner's $300/10 offer last Monday, to both Turner and Correa. Phillies likes Turner better and offered as much, and Turner liked a WS team with lots of offense better, so took theirs over Jed's. But maybe nobody else has matched Jed's $300/10 for Correa, for whatever reason. (Obvi, numbers just hypothetical). So, does Boras just sit and wait patiently? Jed was already high with $300/10, but as Boras waits Jed jumps it every few days, to $320/10? To $340/11? To tico's $360/12? On to $384/12, etc.? How does Jed know when to stop bidding himself up?
I can't imagine how hard it must be to make what you think is a good, winning offer, but then to be held waiting.
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Logic and reason rarely enter into the MLB free agent market, but here's my calc.
To start with, on the merits as a baseball player, I don't think Correa should get a higher AAV than Trea Turner for a contract that takes him through age 40.
So, that's 300/11*13 = 355.
For each year Correa took off for a shorter contract length, I would bump the AAV by 5%.
Years/Guarantee/AAV
13/$355/$27.3
12/$344/$28.6
11/$331/$30.1
10/$316/$31.6
9/$298/$33.2
8/$278/$34.8
7/$256/$36.5
6/$230/$38.4
Jeff, presume counters with my proposed 360/12, do you walk?
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If Hoyer and Ricketts fear these long term contracts because they can become real albatrosses, there is no hope, because they're here. Major market teams understand that, but still make the moves because even if one out of five contracts turn out bad, the team is still doing well and fans are still putting their fannies in the seats.
We need to face facts. Correa is not coming here. Swanson, in spite of the fact that the love of his life is in Chicago, probably isn't either. We've added pitchers who not only aren't that impressive are probably going to block some promising youngsters. We've sent out best catching option to our rivals where he will probably have a 15WAR against the Cubs.
I really wonder how long it will take for agents and players respect us in the future.
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Jeff, presume counters with my proposed 360/12, do you walk?
Probably not. That's a $16 delta.
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I think Boras could certainly come to the cubs and say “if you want Correa the deal is 12/$360. You have 1 hour or he is signing elsewhere.”
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I think Boras could certainly come to the cubs and say “if you want Correa the deal is 12/$360. You have 1 hour or he is signing elsewhere.”
In the current market conditions, I really think it's a fair deal for both sides. Correa gets a 3-handle on the AAV and a contract that guarantees his pay until he hits 40. If it's not quite enough, give him opt outs to push the deal over the finish line. There are worse outcomes than Correa outperforming a 360/12 deal so significantly that he wants to hit the market again!
Cubs get (IMO) the top FA SS on the market this winter (though Turner is certainly a very close 1B to Correa's 1A), redemption for Hoyer and the Ricketts (which is pretty important at this point, IMO), a true star, and an opportunity to spend money in a manner that will likely not present itself next winter. Yes, that last bit sounds strange to say, but next year's FA class isn't as deep: we're just not going to sign Ohtani; Correa this winter is a much better fit than Devers next; and if Hoyer is somewhat reluctant to sign 28-yr-old Correa now, he's certainly not going to sign 31-year-old Machado next winter. After those three, the bats fall off really quickly for the 2023-24 offseason...
Get 'er done, Jed!
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I think Boras could certainly come to the cubs and say “if you want Correa the deal is 12/$360. You have 1 hour or he is signing elsewhere.”
I think Boras would be wasting a valuable hour.
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Seems like it's safe to say 360/12 is the upper limit of what folks on the board would be willing to sign Correa for?
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Ok, now let's do Swanson: what's the max offer folks think the Cubs should extend Swanson?
I'll set the floor at... $176M/8yrs. Anyone think the Cubs should go higher? That price already too steep?
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I'd probably be willing to go farther than that, but I doubt it would cost more than that.
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Ok, now let's do Swanson: what's the max offer folks think the Cubs should extend Swanson?
I'll set the floor at... $176M/8yrs. Anyone think the Cubs should go higher? That price already too steep?
No interest in Swanson beyond six years.
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I'd probably be willing to go farther than that, but I doubt it would cost more than that.
This was for Correa, not Swanson.
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As for Swanson, I wouldn't go near that contract. I wouldn't want to give him more than 3, maybe 4 years so I wouldn't be in on him this offseason.
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Ok, now let's do Swanson: what's the max offer folks think the Cubs should extend Swanson?
I'll set the floor at... $176M/8yrs. Anyone think the Cubs should go higher? That price already too steep?
0/0. I kid.
I would have a hard time justifying paying him more than what the Tigers gave Javy. 5/$110?
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As someone who has been very slow to be critical of the front office, I have to admit that I am extremely puzzled by the lack of action (other than Bellinger & Taillon) as one player after another in whom the Cubs were reasonably believed to be interested has gotten signed by other teams. This in spite of multiple reports (including public statement by Kenney) that there is plenty of money available.
I continue to hope (without confidence) that the Cubs will sign Correa (or lacking that, Swanson), but even if that happens, why no other action? I have tried to figure out what the approach to this off-season is, but I am baffled. And even if one of them ends up with the Cubs, what explanation is there for all of the other inaction?
There has been some pretty widespread negativity toward both the ownership and the front office in the past, but none of that will compare to what things will be like if the Cubs fail to sign either Correa or Swanson. I can't imagine what the anger will be like then. Surely Hoyer et al understand that. It was different when Theo & Jed had a very specific plan for the team to stink while they tore everything down and built a new franchise. There is no such justification now.
I wish I believed that it will all make sense when the dust settles.
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Ok, now let's do Swanson: what's the max offer folks think the Cubs should extend Swanson?
I'll set the floor at... $176M/8yrs. Anyone think the Cubs should go higher? That price already too steep?
I'd go as far as 8/200, which is where the guessing is atm. Don't give a flip if that's an unpopular opinion. We need good players and he's the second-best player available.
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No interest in Swanson beyond six years.
What’s your 6 year offer, then?
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0/0. I kid.
I would have a hard time justifying paying him more than what the Tigers gave Javy. 5/$110?
I think it’s reasonable to say that Swanson is better than Javy - certainly has a higher floor - and market dynamics have changed since Javy signed his deal.
Perhaps you think Javy is the better player? Or perhaps you thought his deal was a serious overpay?
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What’s your 6 year offer, then?
$144
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$144
That’s the deal I started with, then started playing with numbers to get closer to the rumored 200/8 Deeg mentioned.
I don’t know that I’d be comfortable with 176/8 myself.
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That’s the deal I started with, then started playing with numbers to get closer to the rumored 200/8 Deeg mentioned. ..
Yeah, so hard to guess what the market might really be at. Everybody faults Hoyer, but man that would be a hard position to be in, I don't envy him at all. Rumors can often be way higher than reality. We were getting $100/5 for Senga, and it ended up being $75. The $200 for Swanson may be comparably overstated.
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So, absent those who simply wouldn't pursue Swanson in the first place, is $144/6 the highest "reasonable" offer the board would be willing to extend?
For those only interested in Swanson on much shorter deals, is there a high AAV/short term structure you'd propose?
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Interesting trivia on Ben DeLuzio, the Cubs’ big signing of the week - he caused controversy for a string of Hader-style homophobic tweets while in the Cardinal organization.
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So, absent those who simply wouldn't pursue Swanson in the first place, is $144/6 the highest "reasonable" offer the board would be willing to extend?
For those only interested in Swanson on much shorter deals, is there a high AAV/short term structure you'd propose?
I would go higher. 160/6. 144/6 does not get it done. I don’t think he takes a 6 year deal but if that is what is offered it’s going to take closer to 30 a year then 24.
I think a better way to view these contracts is turner got 300/9 with 60 deferred till year 10 and 11. Swanson is going to want the same. $$$ with a team knowing last 2 years are wasted.
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I think it’s reasonable to say that Swanson is better than Javy - certainly has a higher floor - and market dynamics have changed since Javy signed his deal.
Perhaps you think Javy is the better player? Or perhaps you thought his deal was a serious overpay?
It is kinda fun to look at Javy’s statcast page and then go to Swanson’s. I think Javy has the louder tools, but they are both kinda flawed players. If the Tigers made Javy available in a salary dump, I’d do that before that before signing Swanson. I don’t know that I love how either guy is going to age.
If people are really talking about giving Swanson 8 years (29-37) we need to talk about defensive against curves for SS.
This off season has really been Correra or bust for me.
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Might as well start the Cubs in '24 topic.
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As of now, this team is worse than the 2022 team. If you buy tickets to a game this year you are part of the problem. Rename the Cubs the Chicago Pirates. Boo this team. I see NO plan. A joke of an organization. Fire everyone & start over again.
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I wonder if the worst thing that ever happened to the cubs is Wrigley Field. Without a church of baseball MAYBE we'd have more aggressive leadership. Instead, we endure penny pinching losers year after year bc they have a $350 million dollar free agent in the stadium. Chicago has so many advantages and yet it seems they RARELY leverage them. What a joke. Why should any of us pay attention (or money) to a dumpster fire. The Cubs have gone full Blackhawks - completely irrelevant until probably the 2030's.
BOOOOOOOOOO! ! ! ! !
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Without resorting to hyperbole, the message can’t be stressed enough - stop spending to support this organization until they spend to earn your support. Don’t go to games. Don’t buy Marquee advertisers’ products. FFS don’t attend team events like the convention. Making your displeasure heard is well and good, but the Ricketts only care about money in the end. As long as they can be the most expensive team in baseball to watch while spending like a small-market team and pay no financial penalty for that, they won’t change. Financial pain is the only thing they understand.
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For those of you who don’t want to spend 8/$200 on Dansby (not that the Cubs would likely do it anyway), my question is this: what exactly are you saving that money for?
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I think I'm done with the Cubs. The 2016 championship raised expectations, but the organization completely failed to build on that.
Why should I continue investing my time and money into this team that doesn't care if they win or lose?
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Absolutely sign Swanson so I can watch a marginally above average player make more money in an inning than I do all year. And then Chicago can finish 1 game above .500 for the next five years.
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I think I'm done with the Cubs. The 2016 championship raised expectations, but the organization completely failed to build on that.
Why should I continue investing my time and money into this team that doesn't care if they win or lose?
You shouldn’t.
What that means is in the eye of the beholder. At the bare minimum, don’t give them a penny of your money. Rooting for them is free - but with the product they currently put on the, field, why bother doing that?
It’s possible a line has been crossed here, though I’m going to be skeptical until I see evidence that enough meatball fans are aware enough to realize how they’re being played. If there is a reckoning the blame game is going to be fascinating- Ricketts and Crane will certainly try and throw Hoyer under the bus, but the problem for them is that if you do that so intensely that he goes, you lose your scapegoat. If a new stooge comes in and the Cubs still suck and cheaply too, PTR won’t be able to deflect the blame so easily.
It’s really been obvious where this was headed since “intelligent spending” - it’s just that some refused to believe it.
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I really hope the Ricketts family and Hoyer get booed out of the building at the Cubs Convention.
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I really hope the Ricketts family and Hoyer get booed out of the building at the Cubs Convention.
Ricketts isn’t going anywhere near this Cubs Con. Frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if Hoyer ducks it.
Booing would be fun, but far better would be if nobody shows the f*ck up.
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Contrare Deeg. A lot of angry fans should go to the convention
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Contrare Deeg. A lot of angry fans should go to the convention
If they do, they’re putting money in PTR’s pocket.
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For those of you who don’t want to spend 8/$200 on Dansby (not that the Cubs would likely do it anyway), my question is this: what exactly are you saving that money for?
I'm in for at least Jeff's $144/6, but just can't see $25M per for 8 years on Swanson.
Go hard after Rodon?
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I'm in for at least Jeff's $144/6, but just can't see $25M per for 8 years on Swanson.
Go hard after Rodon?
First off I don’t see a chance in hell Rodon would sign with the Cubs unless they absolutely blew every offer out of the water. And we all know that won’t happen.
But, set that aside. I don’t see being comfortable signing a pitcher who’s a huge injury risk to a 7/200 deal (approximately) over giving Swanson 8/200. YMMV - that just doesn’t compute to me.
Sign Swanson, Sign Narvaez to a two-year deal, Brantley to a two-year deal, Kluber for a year and a couple decent pen arms to short-term deals. That’s a team that could sniff the WC next year if everything goes perfectly, and isn’t trying anybody’s hands financially long-term. The Cubs won’t do that, obviously, but that’s the least-worst course at the moment.
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I'm in for at least Jeff's $144/6, but just can't see $25M per for 8 years on Swanson.
Go hard after Rodon?
Just sit out the rest of the offseason. Everyone will want Swanson off the payroll in 2-3 years (and he only makes them something like a 76 win team now), and Rodon is very injury prone. And if they sit out the rest of the offseason, it virtually ensures that Hoyer is fired ahead of the trade deadline.
In the long term, it's better for the Cubs if they just embrace sucking this year so they can replace Hoyer with a GM who isn't scared to make a move outside his comfort zone.
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Just sit out the rest of the offseason. Everyone will want Swanson off the payroll in 2-3 years (and he only makes them something like a 76 win team now), and Rodon is very injury prone. And if they sit out the rest of the offseason, it virtually ensures that Hoyer is fired ahead of the trade deadline.
In the long term, it's better for the Cubs if they just embrace sucking this year so they can replace Hoyer with a GM who isn't scared to make a move outside his comfort zone.
I do think that’s part of the problem, but I’m not totally swallowing the Kool-aid that this is all his fault. We don’t really know how much actual financial leeway PTR has given him. Firing him as long as we have the same owner is probably changing deck chairs on the Titanic.
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Seriously though, what the **** kind of player is Hoyer trying to sign anyway?
He's unwilling to make long-term offers. Got it.
He's certainly not handing out short-term, high-AAV deals, either. We weren't even rumored to be in on DeGrom or Verlander. Like, their agents knew the idea of planting the Cub name in a story was so laughable they didn't even try.
I hope baseball reporters absolutely crucify Hoyer and ownership at every chance moving forward. For years now fans have been told - and largely believed - the lie that spending was coming, we're rolling over the $$$, etc. Last week, Ricketts "opened the pocketbooks." All of it absolute bullshit. The writers needs to flay the font office with merciless questions.
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I do think that’s part of the problem, but I’m not totally swallowing the Kool-aid that this is all his fault. We don’t really know how much actual financial leeway PTR has given him. Firing him as long as we have the same owner is probably changing deck chairs on the Titanic.
For sure Ricketts is part the problem. To whatever extent Hoyer is uncomfortable with long term deals, at least some of that flows from Ricketts.
But you can't fire the owners, much as I wish.
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The only way things change is if the fans quit spending money and watching. If the Cubs can’t/won’t spend the money for stars then they need to blow it up until the talented prospects are ready and you keeping adding to the pool. I won’t be watching until the prospects start playing.
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I always felt like Swanson was/is the target and still do.
This offseason isnt a failure...yet.
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Dansby Swanson’s free agent market has skyrocketed with the recent marquee shortstop signings:
The Chicago Cubs, Minnesota #Twins, Boston #Redsox, Los Angeles #Dodgers and Atlanta all in play for the All-Star.--Nightengale
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Given what has happened up to now, it's very hard to imagine Hoyer outbidding all of the competition for Swanson.
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To me, Hoyer's mistake was not getting any of the top 3 shortstops, it was failure to make an impact signing back in November or before the meetings. He didn't demonstrate a resolve to spend until it was too late. We need to face the fact that the Cubs don't have any respect right now.
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The only way things change is if the fans quit spending money and watching. If the Cubs can’t/won’t spend the money for stars then they need to blow it up until the talented prospects are ready and you keeping adding to the pool. I won’t be watching until the prospects start playing.
One thing I'm wondering is if the Cubs are taking a bigger hit from RSN's having financial problems than most teams because they're a co-owner of Marquee. Maybe the fans have stopped watching and caring after last year's nondescript team, and it's already hitting ownership hard in the pocketbook because of their investment in Marquee? Granted you'd think the way to get fans to care again and start watching and paying for Marquee would be to start spending on good players, but we might be belt tightening because fans aren't caring and Marquee is getting clobbered?
I'll admit, last year's team was very hard for me to follow. It's tough to sit down to watch 3-4 hours of Frank Schwindel, Alfonso Rivas, and Patrick Wisdom when there's a good concert going on at the Ryman any given night of the week or if Nashville SC has a home game going on and the weather is nice. At least during the Lovable Losers years, it was fun watching Ryne Sandberg, Sammy Sosa, and Kerry Wood, etc. There's nobody we have now that makes you want to tune in even if the overall product on the field is bad.
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I think I'm done with the Cubs. The 2016 championship raised expectations, but the organization completely failed to build on that.
Why should I continue investing my time and money into this team that doesn't care if they win or lose?
Honestly between where the Cubs, Titans, and Predators all are right now, I'm not even sure why I care about pro sports in general. It's been a bad last few days for my sports teams.
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Fortunately, I have the Bulls and Blackhawks to root for.
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I enjoyed watching the Cubs last season, particularly the young guys. And I have been through much, much worse times and ownership with the Cubs over my 60+ years of being a fan. I'm not about to jettison my support for or interest in the team now.
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I wonder if the worst thing that ever happened to the cubs is Wrigley Field.
That is something seldomed mentioned, either on this board or by those that cover the Cubs. Not only is Wrigley Field smaller than most large market stadiums, but it has absolutely no parking. The Dodgers Stadium brings in about 30 million dollars per year, just during the baseball season. The Wrigley Field brings in about 1.75 dollars per year. That pays for a superstar every year that the Cubs can't afford. In addition, Dodgers Stadium has an off season packed with concert and events, while Wrigley is considered too small to get the really large ones. All told, the Dodgers bring in more than 200 million dollars per year than the Cubs. If non-salary costs are comparable, that gives the Dodgers and similar large market teams a considerable advantage over the Cubs in the free agent market.
Personally, I have always wished that the Cubs would get a modern stadium that has other sources of revenue, which would make them a true large market team.
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Some things are sacred and cannot be assigned a cash value.
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One thing I'm wondering is if the Cubs are taking a bigger hit from RSN's having financial problems than most teams because they're a co-owner of Marquee. Maybe the fans have stopped watching and caring after last year's nondescript team, and it's already hitting ownership hard in the pocketbook because of their investment in Marquee? Granted you'd think the way to get fans to care again and start watching and paying for Marquee would be to start spending on good players, but we might be belt tightening because fans aren't caring and Marquee is getting clobbered?
With the national TV deals, Wrigley attendance, Disney's BAMTech money it would have to be losing a ton of money to really affect the Cubs and I think the loses go more towards Sinclair than the Cubs.
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The Ricketts' purchased the Cubs and related assets for $900M.
The franchise is now worth over $4B.
They have raked in money from the fans and seen their assets grow at extraordinary rates.
If there is any pain from the network stuff, it is peanuts compared to the bigger picture.
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The sale value of the team is only important if they sell the team. As an ongoing enterprise, the value is that of the net income after expenses. Farmers call that being "land poor" when they own a farm worth millions, but doesn't provide enough income to feed their families.
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The term, Dave, is land rich, money poor.
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The sale value of the team is only important if they sell the team. As an ongoing enterprise, the value is that of the net income after expenses. Farmers call that being "land poor" when they own a farm worth millions, but doesn't provide enough income to feed their families.
Good thing that the Cubs are not that.
2021 revenue/2021 Payroll/difference
1) Dodgers- $565 million/$266 million/$299 million
2) Yankees- $482 million/$205 million/$277 million
3) Red Sox- $479 million/$187 million/$292 million
4.) Braves- $443 million/$153 million/$290 million (made their parent company $100 million)
5.) CUBS- $425 million/$144 million/$281 million
6.) Astros- $388 million/$194 million.$194 million
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The sale value of the team is only important if they sell the team. As an ongoing enterprise, the value is that of the net income after expenses. Farmers call that being "land poor" when they own a farm worth millions, but doesn't provide enough income to feed their families.
Land-rich-money-poor farmers are not even remotely analogous in this case. The reason a farmer may sit on millions of dollars of land but may have little to show for it after liquidating the entire business is that most farms also carry enormous debt related to the purchase of farming equipment, etc., so even though their land is worth millions, it's offset on the balance sheet by a near-equal amount of debt. That's not the case for the Cubs. The *net* value of the business has increased by $3-4B.
And you're wrong on the benefits to Ricketts on the increase in enterprise value, too. An asset - whether cash, or a baseball team - is an asset. If that asset is illiquid, like a baseball team, there are plenty of ways to derive liquidity from the underlying asset. A $3B increase in team value isn't the same as a $3B pile of cash, but it's close enough that the supposed payroll ceilings the Cubs may be up against are completely facile, imagined, self-imposed, absurd.
And that's not even expecting Ricketts to act like Cohen.
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Some things are sacred and cannot be assigned a cash value.
Wrigley is not the problem. Not in the least.
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Good thing that the Cubs are not that.
2021 revenue/2021 Payroll/difference
1) Dodgers- $565 million/$266 million/$299 million
2) Yankees- $482 million/$205 million/$277 million
3) Red Sox- $479 million/$187 million/$292 million
4.) Braves- $443 million/$153 million/$290 million (made their parent company $100 million)
5.) CUBS- $425 million/$144 million/$281 million
6.) Astros- $388 million/$194 million.$194 million
I am not sure what your point is.
The dodgers had 565 million in revenue and 266 million in salary, leaving them 299 million for other expenses and profit
If the Cubs had 425 million in revenue, but had 266 million in salry, that would leave the with 140 million for other expenses and profit. With other expenses being about equal, then the Cubs would lose their ass if they carried a payroll equal to the Dodgers.
The problem is, the Cubs are a large market team, with a small market revenue stream coming from their physical facilities.
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The #Cubs today agreed to terms with OF Cody Bellinger on a one-year contract.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fj95D2_XwAE9sC2?format=jpg&name=medium)
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A question:
If the Cubs under Ricketts are such a paltry payroll club, how do you explain that—as recent as 2019—Cubs were 2nd highest payroll in baseball? HIGHER than the Yankees that season.
#4 payroll in 2018. #6 payroll in 2020.
Cubs are a high revenue club and have spent like that thru 2020. Those are the facts.
The next question is: why has payroll fallen relative to other clubs SINCE 2020?
Cubs value as an asset compared to Rocketts purchase price is largely irrelevant, as Cubs apparently operate as a revenues-minus-expenses business operation. Would be nice if Cubs dipped into non-Cubs assets for payroll—which seems like Cohen Mets might be doing and maybe even Middleton Phillies too—but like most every other club, Cubs don’t do that.
Right now, I believe that Cubs are #16 in 2023 payroll. If Cubs stay around there, folks deservedly can be and stay upset. Cubs fans will deserve an explanation from Hoyer if that happens. I’m going to wait a bit more to see what might, or might not, happen in off-season.
As to post-Covid 2020 explanations for payroll, we’ve already discussed some possibilities. But, pretty likely correlates to Wrigleyville project debt and getting Marquee off the ground just as Covid impacted the service industry everywhere. Bad timing for capital projects. Cubs even laid off scores of modestly-paid staffers, which is probably revealing about the entire operation.
VERY Disappointing not to get Correa but perhaps shouldn’t overreact to failure to outbid another club’s $350M commitment.
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Land-rich-money-poor farmers are not even remotely analogous in this case. The reason a farmer may sit on millions of dollars of land but may have little to show for it after liquidating the entire business is that most farms also carry enormous debt related to the purchase of farming equipment, etc., so even though their land is worth millions, it's offset on the balance sheet by a near-equal amount of debt. That's not the case for the Cubs. The *net* value of the business has increased by $3-4B.
And you're wrong on the benefits to Ricketts on the increase in enterprise value, too. An asset - whether cash, or a baseball team - is an asset. If that asset is illiquid, like a baseball team, there are plenty of ways to derive liquidity from the underlying asset. A $3B increase in team value isn't the same as a $3B pile of cash, but it's close enough that the supposed payroll ceilings the Cubs may be up against are completely facile, imagined, self-imposed, absurd.
And that's not even expecting Ricketts to act like Cohen.
Take a look at the top five most expensive games:
Chicago Cubs, Wrigley Field: $110.17
New York Yankees, Yankee Stadium: $102.70
Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park: $101.36
Washington Nationals, Nationals Park: $99.42
San Francisco Giants, Oracle Park: $89.72
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This "mutant option" is new to me. Can someone explain it to me?
Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
Cubs make Bellinger deal official. One year with a mutant option.
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Both parties have to agree to pick it up.
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This "mutant option" is new to me. Can someone explain it to me?
Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
Cubs make Bellinger deal official. One year with a mutant option.
Bruce was clearly jealous of all the retweets Heyman got for the typo in his “Judge to the Giants” tweet.
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I am not sure what your point is.
The dodgers had 565 million in revenue and 266 million in salary, leaving them 299 million for other expenses and profit
If the Cubs had 425 million in revenue, but had 266 million in salry, that would leave the with 140 million for other expenses and profit. With other expenses being about equal, then the Cubs would lose their ass if they carried a payroll equal to the Dodgers. Ricketts they will funnel the money from the Cubs back into the team. They could easily afford $240 million in payroll and not not lose money. If the Cubs are actually good then revenue would be closer to what the Yankees are bringing in,
The problem is, the Cubs are a large market team, with a small market revenue stream coming from their physical facilities.
The Cubs very likely made close to $100 million in profit from baseball in 2021. It was a lower revenue year, because the team wasn't good and didn't make the playoffs. The Cubs probably made a similar amount of money last year. The Cubs are not a cash poor team.
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Jesse Rodgers said the Cubs offered Vazquez the same deal as Minnesota. Interesting in two ways, if true. First, as a reminder of just where we are as a destination at the moment. Second, that Hoyer didn’t think it was worth spending a few more million to beat that offer.
He also said (pound of salt) the Cubs were better than 50-50 to sign Swanson.
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Im fairly confident that we will sign him.
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Cubs are not a publicly-traded entity, so ascertaining “profits” is pure guesswork.
We should acknowledge that.
Guessing about profit is based on whatever bias or assumption one may have or not have—as is obvious because, aside from player payroll, such assumptions about profit are accompanied by zero data when somebody takes a guess about it.
Forbes estimates revenues—which are useful and better than nothing—but who knows how accurate even that is. And, of course, that is only one part of the equation.
But, non-payroll expenses, good luck with that one. Sounds nice to throw out a nice round number like $100M—-but you have no clue. Maybe it’s more than that, maybe less, maybe WAY more or less. Pick something out of thin air.
For one thing, probably every club figures their “expenses” differently, one way or another.
For all we know, Cubs may use shabby accounting methods to give Hoyer less for payroll than if Cubs used Padres up-and-up methods or the Angels charitable accounting methodology or we can change all those identities and Cubs bend over backwards to give Hoyer every available cent. Who knows. And, you’ll never know or have much of a clue about it.
I guessed about Wrigleyville and Marquee projects but wouldn’t dream about trying to put a figure on that.
When Ewing Kaufman owned the Royals, it was widely considered that he considered the club kind of a public trust for the city of KC and dipped into his own personal funds on occasion to better the club. That is considered a rarity. Maybe Steve Cohen is doing that in the short-term——probably more of a personal ego thing than a Ewing-type public trust. Nice for Mets fans.
Think it is fair to expect Cubs to be in top 5 or 6 in payroll most seasons and ask questions when they’re not or ruminate about it when don’t get plausible answers. All fair.
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Unless Hoyer has a big trade in mind, this offseason is bland. Even Swanson would still make it feel like a failure. Maybe I'll become a closet Cardinal. That way I can taunt whenever Contreras burns us.
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Unless Hoyer has a big trade in mind, this offseason is bland. Even Swanson wouldn't make it feel like a failure. Maybe I'll become a closet Cardinal. That way I can taunt whenever Contreras burns us.
Could become a Brewers fan and do the same.
Sign Swanson. Sign good players, period. I agree, Swanson in a vacuum is still a bad offseason, considering all the holes we have and how we’ve filled basically none of them except CF (debatably). But bad is better than disastrous, and there’d still be time to sign some guys like Brantley and Narvaez to make it almost decent.
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There's certainly a path to salvaging the offseason, but so many attractive options are now off the market, and Hoyer has seemingly lost on many of the players we've been interested in.
Going to take a dramatic reversal from Hoyer, and even then it's threading the needle.
All at the risk of a dramatic overpay for Swanson who is now in the catbird seat.
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Jed is signed through 2025 and I doubt his job will be in jeopardy pretty much no matter how 2023 goes. But he will get the blame (fairly or not) if they don't make the postseason in 2024, likely losing his job.
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How do you know this?
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The Cubs very likely made close to $100 million in profit from baseball in 2021. It was a lower revenue year, because the team wasn't good and didn't make the playoffs. The Cubs probably made a similar amount of money last year. The Cubs are not a cash poor team.
Did you just pull that $ 100 million dollar figure out of anywhere in particular?
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Speculating, Dusty.
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And I think that's the absolutely minimum that Jed should need to do to keep his job.
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Did you just pull that $ 100 million dollar figure out of anywhere in particular?
The Braves made that much with similar numbers. The biggest expense for the MLB teams is going to be payroll. Cut it half and say $50 million, they still aren’t cash poor. People need to quit acting like MLB teams don’t make money.
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Jed is signed through 2025 and I doubt his job will be in jeopardy pretty much no matter how 2023 goes. But he will get the blame (fairly or not) if they don't make the postseason in 2024, likely losing his job.
I disagree. Unless he really turns around this offseason (which requires a lot more than just signing Swanson), I think Hoyer's job is at risk as soon as the end of April/early May. Kenney has said Hoyer left budget on the table last year. There were several reports that Ricketts wanted Hoyer to spend what it took to make the Cubs competitive in 2023. If that's true, he's not doing what his boss asked him to do so far.
If Hoyer doesn't spend his budget and they start out like they did last year, I don't know that there will be (or should be) much patience. Ricketts might want someone else deciding what to do with Stroman and Happ at the deadline.
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I strongly doubt that, br.
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I'd be surprised if it happened in May. But if this season is another disaster, I'd have to assume Hoyer's going to be on he hot seat.
He's said he's not rebuilding, that he's trying to compete each season. But to stack 3 straight disasters seasons, and if his scouting selections of trying-to-compete signings end up being as hapless as Simmons, Villar, and Arrieta in recent seasons, I'd think he's got to be at risk. Especially if this will be the second straight winter where he had mone to spend, and he just failed to sign anybody effective with it.
But, the winter isn't over yet; and the season isn't a disaster yet.
It's still at least hypothetically possible that the Cubs will be much improved internally? Plus that some of the guys added or to be added will not be Simmons-Arrieta busts? Maybe he'll have spread it around over Bellinger-Taillon-Smyly-Mancini-Swanson, but those guys will all end up reasonably productive, and will contribute to a division-winner? All while Jed's patience with the young guys looks like it's starting to pay off?
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There’s no way the Cubs are going to be massively improved internally. The farm lacks star talent, and most of it is too far away for that to happen.
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People need to quit acting like MLB teams don’t make money.
And people need to quit acting like they shouldn't make money.
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I think that the Cubs will be improved this season. "Massively" is a rather nebulous term, subject to widely varying interpretations.
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And people need to quit acting like they shouldn't make money.
People have had this conversation multiple times, no one is against the Rickett’s family making a profit running the Cubs. When you get push back is when you act like the Cubs are losing money and can’t possibly afford to spend $X. The Cubs have plenty of money. The Cubs can spend a lot more money and the Ricketts family will still make a nice profit.
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And people need to quit acting like they shouldn't make money.
This is such an absurd straw man argument. No one is suggesting this.
It's also completely detached from reality: the value of Ricketts' investment has grown at a +35% CAGR. They're making money hand over fist, and can continue to do so, even while floating a payroll that's tens of millions of dollars higher than the current levels.
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People have had this conversation multiple times, no one is against the Rickett’s family making a profit running the Cubs. When you get push back is when you act like the Cubs are losing money and can’t possibly afford to spend $X. The Cubs have plenty of money. The Cubs can spend a lot more money and the Ricketts family will still make a nice profit.
What is your definition of "nice profit"?
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This is such an absurd straw man argument. No one is suggesting this.
It's also completely detached from reality: the value of Ricketts' investment has grown at a +35% CAGR. They're making money hand over fist, and can continue to do so, even while floating a payroll that's tens of millions of dollars higher than the current levels.
What is your idea of what a company worth $4,200.000,000 should make per year?
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What is your definition of "nice profit"?
What’s yours? If the Ricketts netted $5 million a year on the Cubs with an increase in of value from $900 million to $3.6 billion would that be ok? Does it have to be more?
If the Cubs had a healthy payroll and the roster was continually improved I really wouldn’t care if the Ricketts kept $100 million a year. The amount being spent currently is way too low for what the Cubs being in. The Cubs haven’t been improving the roster since the signed Darvish after the 2017 season. The Cubs final payroll in 2011 was $140 million, in 2021 it was $152 million. I think the TV revenue and ticket prices have increased a fair amount since then.
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Twitter is buzzing like something is about to happen with Dansby. Hopefully nothing that will jeopardize Ricketts’ nice profit.
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Is this all Skipper related buzz or something more?
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Is this all Skipper related buzz or something more?
ROFL, a couple marginally credible people like Loxas. But it’s nothing concrete.
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Skipper did get everybody all worked up earlier.
Adam (Skipper) Bednark
SOURCE: I have been told that Dansby Swanson is signing with the Chicago Cubs. I was not given a number. I was told to expect the announcement at some point tonight.
Just in case he goes all wetbutt
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Skipper did get everybody all worked up earlier.
Adam (Skipper) Bednark
SOURCE: I have been told that Dansby Swanson is signing with the Chicago Cubs. I was not given a number. I was told to expect the announcement at some point tonight.
Just in case he goes all wetbutt
As others have noted, I want Rosenthal, Heyman et al to post "First: Skipper".
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Also, as regards the plan going forward, Jesse Rodgers claims Hoyer's response when Rodgers told him the Cubs needed a couple of star players was "The Rays don't have a lot of stars and they win."
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Also, as regards the plan going forward, Jesse Rodgers claims Hoyer's response when Rodgers told him the Cubs needed a couple of star players was "The Rays don't have a lot of stars and they win."
Context matters (as always), and to be fair, when someone quoted him on this, Rodgers said that Hoyer was not suggesting that should be the route of the Cubs, only that the Rays had shown that was not the only route.
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Context matters (as always), when someone him on this, Rodgers said that Hoyer was not suggesting that should be the route of the Cubs, only that the Rays had shown that was not the only route.
He still said it.
What people say off the cuff and unrehearsed is usually the most revealing about what they actually believe.
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What is your idea of what a company worth $4,200.000,000 should make per year?
Did you even read my post?
+35% CAGR since the team was purchased.
That’s way better than any of Buffett’s best streaks.
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Gordo (who was beating the Correa drum longer than anybody) now saying the Cubs never even made him an offer once they saw how the market was shaping up:
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-turn-dansby-swanson-salvage-free-agency-efforts?cid=sm_npd_rsn_chi_twt_mn
It looks as if he's pissed at being played, quite frankly.
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I wonder if Swanson could be tempted by something like 4/120. "You'd be the highest AAV of all the shortstops" kind of thing. Cubs would have him through his prime years and he'd be a FA again with a chance to sign another pretty good contract.
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Swanson is the SS I always thought we were going to sign. Mostly because his wife plays soccer in Chicago but also because he would seemingly be the most economical signing of the 4 and require the fewest years.
For the record I still think we will sign him. I would be surprised if we didn’t.
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Did you even read my post?
+35% CAGR since the team was purchased.
That’s way better than any of Buffett’s best streaks.
I think concepts like CAGR can be hard for some to understand. Better metric is Cash on Cash return. if the cubs are earning 100 million a year, based on their original purchase price is 11.1%. by all estimates they are earning well over 100 million a year. So the floor on their earnings right now is a 11% cash on cash return. That's pretty damn good. This doesn't count the $ they have gained through the sale of BAM to Disney, which can be said to simply lower the initial cost of purchase in chunks, further increasing their return.
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Swanson is the SS I always thought we were going to sign. Mostly because his wife plays soccer in Chicago but also because he would seemingly be the most economical signing of the 4 and require the fewest years.
For the record I still think we will sign him. I would be surprised if we didn’t.
Agreed.
And then there will be joy in Mudville.
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Gordon didn’t really hold anything back, did he?
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Gordon didn’t really hold anything back, did he?
Like I said, it reads like he’s pissed he got suckered into being a cog in the Cubs’ PR machine. Which is kinda his own fault, really, but that is what it is.
None of which is to say a lot of what he wrote isn’t on the money.
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Did you even read my post?
+35% CAGR since the team was purchased.
you seem to believe that the Ricketts family made a fantastic financial deal when the bought the Cubs. Let's look at the facts of that. In 2009 the Ricketts bought the Cubs for about 900 million dollars. They then invested another 239 million dollars in the renovation of Wrigley Field, to prevent the 100 year old stadium from falling apart, but let's ignore that at the moment.
If in 2009, the Ricketts family had invested that $900,000,000 in the S & P 500 instead of the Cubs, that money today would be worth $5,120,267,853.98.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/2009?amount=900000000&endYear=2022
In other words, they would have been better off financially if they had just invested the money in a Mutual Fund than in the Cubs. But instead, they provided Chicago fans with the best 5 year span of performance in the past 80 years.
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Oh man, I needed that laugh, thanks for that.
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you seem to believe that the Ricketts family made a fantastic financial deal when the bought the Cubs. Let's look at the facts of that. In 2009 the Ricketts bought the Cubs for about 900 million dollars. They then invested another 239 million dollars in the renovation of Wrigley Field, to prevent the 100 year old stadium from falling apart, but let's ignore that at the moment.
If in 2009, the Ricketts family had invested that $900,000,000 in the S & P 500 instead of the Cubs, that money today would be worth $5,120,267,853.98.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/2009?amount=900000000&endYear=2022
In other words, they would have been better off financially if they had just invested the money in a Mutual Fund than in the Cubs. But instead, they provided Chicago fans with the best 5 year span of performance in the past 80 years.
Who was giving them millions in debt to invest in the S&P? The Ricketts got 674 Million in debt from various folks in order to finance the 845 million dollar deal. then they took on even more debt to buy the property around the stadium and fix up the stadium.
There was also a massive scheme where they got debt from Zell, instead of a down payment, then paid zell some time in the future to help him avoid taxes. Zell ended up paying a large fine to the IRS for this move.
They didn't put down 900 million, they put down much less and financed the rest of the deal at absurdly low interest rates.
"The $250 million raised in the private placements goes toward a $425-million bank loan that would have matured in October 2013, leaving $175 million that will likely be refinanced at that date. The new private placement notes have staggered maturities out to January 2022, according to deal documents that also show the debts are secured in part by all Cubs’ assets, including Wrigley Field.
The remaining $249 million of borrowing in the deal is subordinated debt, with the Ricketts family itself providing at least $175 million."
175 million in the S&P would net you 995 Million in your calculation. so the Ricketts still ended up significantly higher, and if you factor in their low investment amount of personal cash, and now likely the team with much less debt, their CAGR is even higher so is their Cash on Cash return.
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They DID put down 900 million, in the form of cash and debt. When you calculate the cost of an acquisition, you have to include both cash and debt incurred. When you buy a 100,000 dollar house, paying 10,000 dollars in cash and a mortgage of 90,000 dollars, the house cost you 100,000 dollars.
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Incorrect.
If I buy a Apartment complex, i don't calculate my return on Debt + Cash, i calculate it base on cash on cash. if its non collateralized short term debt with high interest payments, even then it turns into interest expense as a cost of capital. Its not included in your return calculation for cash on cash, you are simply incurring an operating expense in terms of interest. Your risk is not making debt payments and having a default event. but it doesn't count towards your total return calculation.
So if I'm earning a 11% return, and paying 5% in interest I'm making money hand over fist. in the example of the cubs, they borrowed 670 million, even if they are paying 10% interest per year, the total interest expense is only 67 million a a year. and the Ricketts return (assuming 100 million profit) is 33/175 (in millions) or 18% cash on cash. This is how all accountants/businesses do it. This is why Debt isnt something that should be feared when used correctly, it can leverage up your returns significantly.
put it another way, lets pretend the ricketts and cubs default on the debt, they wouldnt have to come out of pocket for that money, its collateralized by a interest in the team, so they just turn the keys over.
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Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
Swanson will likely land closer to the Story/Baez numbers than the Correa numbers.
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Cubs signed Brad Boxberger. 1 year, 2.8 million
2.95 ERA in 64 appearances for MIL last season, with 29 holds.
Guess that’s intelligent spending…
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Dave's number included reinvesting dividends as well. Then you also have to include the minority stake they sold and the $150 million for Disney for BAMtech.
Only helps the ricketts bottom line more.
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I want to apologize. Now that we've signed Boxberger, I praise Hoyer's acumen and I'm now looking forward to the season.
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Signings in the margins do help. Marginally.
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I guess we've found our 2023 closer until the trade deadline.
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Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
Swanson will likely land closer to the Story/Baez numbers than the Correa numbers.
“Closer to” 6/140 than to 13/350.
That leaves a lot of space in between.
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Unless there's a surprise entrant to the party, who is going to go to $200 or more?
Twins, no. Braves, no. Red Sox, no (you wouldn't think they would value him more than they did Bogaerts).
The risk is if the Cubs try to use the evident reality of Buster's statement to their advantage, the Dodgers might pop in and take him for LA-style pocket change.
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Also, as regards the plan going forward, Jesse Rodgers claims Hoyer's response when Rodgers told him the Cubs needed a couple of star players was "The Rays don't have a lot of stars and they win."
Context matters (as always), and to be fair, when someone quoted him on this, Rodgers said that Hoyer was not suggesting that should be the route of the Cubs, only that the Rays had shown that was not the only route.
Thanks, Ron. Agree, there are different ways to win. It's a team game. Stars make it a lot easier, but it's not the only route.
I also think that "star" is a somewhat fluid and not fully predictable thing. Stardom sometimes comes and goes pretty quickly. And the perception of stardom can emerge quickly, too.
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Ricketts family panel is coming back to Cubs Con. Gov I hope they stream that.
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Unless there's a surprise entrant to the party, who is going to go to $200 or more?
Twins, no. Braves, no. Red Sox, no (you wouldn't think they would value him more than they did Bogaerts).
The risk is if the Cubs try to use the evident reality of Buster's statement to their advantage, the Dodgers might pop in and take him for LA-style pocket change.
There's still buzz that the Mets and Dodgers are involved. And if the Twins were willing to go 285/10 on Correa, I think there's a non-zero (though slim) chance they could hit 200 for Swanson.
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Heyman is saying the Red Sox are seriously considering Swanson. Skipper guy from last night apparently said it was 7/$170.
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Heyman is saying the Red Sox are seriously considering Swanson. Skipper guy from last night apparently said it was 7/$170.
He (Skipper) also admitted he made the whole thing up to gain hits, and then privatized his account.
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Incorrect.
If I buy a Apartment complex, i don't calculate my return on Debt + Cash, i calculate it base on cash on cash. if its non collateralized short term debt with high interest payments, even then it turns into interest expense as a cost of capital. Its not included in your return calculation for cash on cash, you are simply incurring an operating expense in terms of interest. Your risk is not making debt payments and having a default event. but it doesn't count towards your total return calculation.
So if I'm earning a 11% return, and paying 5% in interest I'm making money hand over fist. in the example of the cubs, they borrowed 670 million, even if they are paying 10% interest per year, the total interest expense is only 67 million a a year. and the Ricketts return (assuming 100 million profit) is 33/175 (in millions) or 18% cash on cash. This is how all accountants/businesses do it. This is why Debt isnt something that should be feared when used correctly, it can leverage up your returns significantly.
put it another way, lets pretend the ricketts and cubs default on the debt, they wouldnt have to come out of pocket for that money, its collateralized by a interest in the team, so they just turn the keys over.
You can calculate your return any way you want, but the fact remains that your total liability includes both downpayment and mortgage. Even if you are only flipping houses, you still retain the liability and if the market turns against you, the leverage will kill you. But regardless of how you calculate your return, when you sell the property, you will be taxed upon the difference between your total purchase price and total sales price, regardless of your down payment.
You seem to be talking about return on rental property cash flow. That is not the situation here. They have already held the company long enough to pay off the loans, which mature in 2023.
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Seems like the longer this drags on, the more likely Swanson signs somewhere else.
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Very likely.
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One might surmise that Heyman tweet as him filling his frequent role as an agent mouthpiece trying to move a deal over the line, as he did with Correa. But that agent is usually Boras, and Swanson isn’t a Boras client.
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He (Skipper) also admitted he made the whole thing up to gain hits, and then privatized his account.
I just saw it mentioned on CHGO podcast this afternoon.
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Dansby Swanson married Chicago Red Stars star Mallory Pugh on Saturday, adding to Cubs speculation. Other outside possibilities include the Dodgers and Red Sox, who are seriously considering Swanson now and likely prefer to keep Trevor Story at 2B. The Dodgers are said to be on the periphery and would need a price drop. The incumbent Braves are cautious payers but can’t be ruled out.--Heyman
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I have no idea how seriously to take Jon Heyman, but this would seem to be encouraging news for the Cubs?
Dansby Swanson married Chicago Red Stars star Mallory Pugh on Saturday, adding to Cubs speculation. Other outside possibilities include the Dodgers and Red Sox, who are seriously considering Swanson now and likely prefer to keep Trevor Story at 2B. The Dodgers are said to be on the periphery and would need a price drop. The incumbent Braves are cautious payers but can’t be ruled out.
The Twins appear to be regrouping after losing out on Carlos Correa, so Swanson’s likely out.
The Dodgers haven’t acted like themselves this year (they want to reset their tax) and may be OK with Gavin Lux at shortstop.
…
https://nypost.com/2022/12/15/yankees-struggling-to-unload-aaron-hicks-josh-donaldson/
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Also from Heyman:
The Marlins, Cubs and Astros are linked to Michael Conforto. Though if he proves healthy, a return for Michael Brantley may work for Houston. …
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Yes to Conforto.
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I doubt that he will be a decent in center, but I don't think that will be an issue with Bellinger, unless they have to move him to first base. Seems like a low risk move.
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Conforto would join Happ, Suzuki, and - with any luck - Mervis in a DH rotation.
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Yes. There are lots of AB, between DH and playing a position while other guys DH. We had a lot of BAD DH AB's last season. Best wishes, Jackson Frazier, but I'd like more production than you were able to give us!
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Yes to Conforto.
Resoundingly.
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He’s too expensive.
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Cubs finances in terms anyone can understand:
https://twitter.com/bleachernation/status/1603587821264068608?s=61&t=FGJsNqhnY0IN3C4modl3cQ
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You can calculate your return any way you want, but the fact remains that your total liability includes both downpayment and mortgage. Even if you are only flipping houses, you still retain the liability and if the market turns against you, the leverage will kill you. But regardless of how you calculate your return, when you sell the property, you will be taxed upon the difference between your total purchase price and total sales price, regardless of your down payment.
You seem to be talking about return on rental property cash flow. That is not the situation here. They have already held the company long enough to pay off the loans, which mature in 2023.
No the leverage kills the banks my liability stops at my initial down payment. That falls on their due diligence. Hence great financial crisis of 2008.
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If you buy a car for $50,000, and pay $5,000 down, your still have the liability for the remaining $45,000. If you fail to pay, the bank will repossess the car and sell it at auction, and you are still liable for the difference between what the bank gets at auction and the remaining balance of the loan.
If you do not fail to pay the loan, then eventually you will have paid $50,000 for the car (plus considerable interest).
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Cars are not a money earning asset. You are the only one that calculates asset returns this way all banks and corporations do it my way. I work for a private real estate developer who owns over 14000 rental units… we don’t care about the debt in our pro forma we care about cash on cash.
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You are talking about real estate companies. A baseball team is not a real estate company, and when buying a company, the entire cost is taken into consideration, not merely the down payment.
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Debt creates interest expense, if you count that as a expense you don’t include the amount in rate of return… we are just going to have to agree to disagree.
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Conforto was mentioned yesterday. Mancini last week, was also supposedly somebody the Cubs were talking to.
For Conforto, would you guess he'd be looking for a 1-year Bellinger deal, to rebuild his market, and then hit it again next year? Or do you think he's looking for some guaranteed multi-year? I'd assume one-year would be what he and Boras would prefer.
All else equal, I'm not sure the Cubs would be his best fit, at least not as I envision using him. I'd imagine him as the primary DH, getting once-in-a-while spot starts in LF/RF if you want to rest Happ or Seiya. If I was Conforto, I think I'd prefer a team where I might get quite a few OF starts, so that I could return to market as an OF, not just a DH. Or, maybe I'd love it? Maybe the shoulder feel great for hitting, but maybe isn't 100% for throwing yet; so maybe finding a spot where I could get AB's but NOT needing to field and throw every day might be kinda nice?
Like Bellinger, he hits lefty and his surgery was on his right shoulder. Unlike Bellinger, Conforto throws righty.
With Bellinger, his 2021 and 2022 disaster seasons were both attributed to his shoulder not having recovered full strength. Each man and each surgery and each rehab are different, of course. But if it's taking 30 months for Bellinger to recover, I wonder if Conforto in 12 will be complete? I wonder, because what good is a 3-true guy *if* the HR's aren't back?
He's a career OPS+ 124, though. So *IF* you could hypothetically get him, and *IF* you hypothetically got a recovered, undiminished version, that could be a really nice addition to the offense.
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https://twitter.com/anthonydicomo/status/1603455555313582095?s=61&t=bWRvCXz2Rx1ykbhKro4OvA
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Thinking about intelligent spending, the fact that our payroll ranks as high as it does, and the product we have put on the field and it occurs to me that funds have been badly mismanaged. Somebody should have considered intelligent spending before now. We sure as he'll didn't spend that budget on stars.
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Lance Brozdowski breaking down Dansby Swanson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xvo-NDwwWmU
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Swanson is taking way too long. Doesn’t bode well for our chances.
Seems likely we have the best offer on the board but he’s holding out for a team trying to win to come close enough to justify choosing them instead. Most likely Boston.
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Seems likely we have the best offer on the board
Don't be ridiculous.
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Most likely Boston.
I don't think it's going to be them, they're as big of a dumpster fire as the Cubs are right now. They seem to be in the same situation where their GM/Head of Baseball Operations is unwilling to pay market price for good players. The only difference is that they're in a much tougher division.
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They stated today that Devers is priority one.
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Dodgers all the way.
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One possible $200M player left, and it’s Dansby Swanson. Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins, incumbent Braves are all among teams linked. Good spot for him.--Heyman
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I don't think it's going to be them, they're as big of a dumpster fire as the Cubs are right now. They seem to be in the same situation where their GM/Head of Baseball Operations is unwilling to pay market price for good players. The only difference is that they're in a much tougher division.
They’re a mess but no way they’re as big a dumpster fire as we are.
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They stated today that Devers is priority one.
That makes it more likely, not less IMO. You sign Swanson to try and prove to Devers that all’s right in the world and the rebound is progressing according to plan.
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They’re a mess but no way they’re as big a dumpster fire as we are.
The Cubs missed out on the three star shortstops. The Red Sox had one of them under contract who wanted to stay, but they didn't even make him a competitive offer in the two years ahead of his opt-out when it was clear they needed to pay him more. Both teams are huge dumpster fires.
The Cubs and Red Sox are basically on the same path. They're big market teams that should be spending a lot more money, and both are going to be lucky to win more than 70-72 games next year. Surely Swanson will get a competitive offer from the Braves, Dodgers, or Twins that will keep him away from both teams.
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The Twins may only be looking for a stopgap SS until 2017 #1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis is back from knee surgery in mid 2023.
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I hope they don't get Swanson. As one of the "big" four shortstops, he was the only one I didn't want. Now, as the last man standing, someone is going to give him a ridiculous contract they will be regretting in a couple of years. Heyward's contract keeps looming in my mind, and not just because of the dollars, but because they meant a virtual guarantee of playing time far beyond his on-the-field usefulness.
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Robb, I kinda feel that way too. Like you say, Swanson may be the worst of the SS contracts, and you may be stuck with an un-tradable, un-dumpable Heyward-esque bat entrenched in the lineup for years, and be unable/unwilling to try to get a good-hitting middle-infielder to replace him.
At this point, I'm not sure that just going Buildican farm-development supplemented by non-star FA's isn't the best way. It's kind of the only path left. Since there are no stars left, Swanson included.
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It would be nice if they had a direction. The team currently is probably too good to have decent draft lottery odds and that isn’t a guarantee of a top pick. They are also too bad to be anywhere close to wild card chance If they aren’t going to spend for the top of the market guys, I’m not really sure how they break out of where they are.
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I agree that whoever signs Swanson will regret it but I also think the fanbase is gonna be divided if a decent effort to compete isnt given.
I honestly wonder if a trade with Detroit for Javy might not be the smart move.
Surely he'd come cheap.
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It would be nice if they had a direction. The team currently is probably too good to have decent draft lottery odds and that isn’t a guarantee of a top pick. They are also too bad to be anywhere close to wild card chance If they aren’t going to spend for the top of the market guys, I’m not really sure how they break out of where they are.
They're ineligible for consecutive lotteries as a large market (ROFL) team anyway.
Whatever Swanson gets it's not going to be enough to financially hamstring any self-respecting franchise short or long-term. We suck - we need good players, and Swanson is a good player. And "rolling it over" has been revealed as the farce is truly is. Spend the damn money.
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They're ineligible for consecutive lotteries as a large market (ROFL) team anyway.
Whatever Swanson gets it's not going to be enough to financially hamstring any self-respecting franchise short or long-term. We suck - we need good players, and Swanson is a good player. And "rolling it over" has been revealed as the farce is truly is. Spend the damn money.
Only if they win a top 6 pick If they are ineligible
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Been an awful damn slow offseason so far for a team that still needs a lot.
Ill root for them regardless but they sure wont get much more effort out of me than I've gotten out of them.
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And looking at the available free agents there's still plenty to be had.
I wont go over my wish list for Deeg to pick apart but if they're willing to pay for it a productive season is still within reach.
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I have zero interest in Swanson. The off-season is lost; don't compound the mistakes by signing the next Heyward. Go bargain binning and fail again next offseason.
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Whoever signs Swanson is gonna regret it.
Im sure of that.
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I get it if some folks don’t want Swanson at the price he figures to get, but Swanson has nothing to do with Heyward.
Seems like Heyward will always be the Ghost of Christmas Past to some, but most every organization has a bad, expensive free agent signing in its history.
Heyard is a convenient marker for some but has zero to do with anybody else. Just get over it.
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Frankly, I'm willing to sign anyone who can improve the team one iota. We suck. Being negative on Swanson, for example, will only make us critical of him from day one. That's not what a Cub fan should do. If he really doesn't help that much, as most of you are convinced, there are trades and other options in the future. All must be taken in perspective. Would Dansby be that bad if we signed Soto and Ohtani next year? If that happened and I know the chances are slim, Davep's grandmother could play at short and we wouldn't care.
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He's a career .255 hitter.
He's gonna get 200 million.
That has nothing to do with Jason Heyward.
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And don't get me wrong Ill appreciate the effort if we sign him.
I just dont think it'll end well.
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Davep's grandmother could play at short and we wouldn't care.
I never saw my grandmother play, but since you were her high school coach, I will take your word for it.
CurtOne is so dumb that he tries to put his M&Ms in alphabetical order.
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It would be nice if they had a direction. The team currently is probably too good to have decent draft lottery odds and that isn’t a guarantee of a top pick. They are also too bad to be anywhere close to wild card chance If they aren’t going to spend for the top of the market guys, I’m not really sure how they break out of where they are.
Blue, I'm an optimistic guy, and I'm more hopeful. I think the uncertainly bar is broad enough to allow for either playoffs or tank.
Even if we predict Cubs at #21, the uncertainty is too large to preclude slipping down to 28-30 range and a top-5 pick; or surprising up into top 12 and playoffs. Sure, not probable that we swing that far in either direction, but either outcome is well within plausible.
The Cubs seem wildly unpredictable, both big-league and farm. Mervis + Bellinger: could you find two guys with larger uncertainty bars? Old vets like Stroman and Hendricks could be both healthy and good; or have cranky arms and drive a tank.
Likewise for minor-leaguers. Bunch of guys who might progress and look very promising, on path to becoming good major-leaguers; a batch of whom might be major-league ready or close by season's end. Or might disappoint, and get exposed against higher levels, or just tread water.
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David Kaplan @thekapman
Expect Dansby Swanson to finalize a deal with the Chicago Cubs tonight. They are finalizing it as we speak and are very close to an agreement. #TakeThat.
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Blue, I'm an optimistic guy, and I'm more hopeful. I think the uncertainly bar is broad enough to allow for either playoffs or tank.
Even if we predict Cubs at #21, the uncertainty is too large to preclude slipping down to 28-30 range and a top-5 pick; or surprising up into top 12 and playoffs. Sure, not probable that we swing that far in either direction, but either outcome is well within plausible.
The Cubs seem wildly unpredictable, both big-league and farm. Mervis + Bellinger: could you find two guys with larger uncertainty bars? Old vets like Stroman and Hendricks could be both healthy and good; or have cranky arms and drive a tank.
Likewise for minor-leaguers. Bunch of guys who might progress and look very promising, on path to becoming good major-leaguers; a batch of whom might be major-league ready or close by season's end. Or might disappoint, and get exposed against higher levels, or just tread David Kaplan @thekapman
Expect Dansby Swanson to finalize a deal with the Chicago Cubs tonight. They are finalizing it as we speak and are very close to an agreement
. #TakeThat.
Well I hope I am very wrong about him then
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Passan confirms:
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
BREAKING: Shortstop Dansby Swanson and the Chicago Cubs are finalizing an agreement on a contract, sources tell ESPN.
I hope I'm very wrong about him too, but I think we're all going to wish the contract was off the payroll three years from now at the latest.
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They need a ton more on offense to make this work. Sign Turner, Conforto and then a few more
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It would be nice if they had a direction. ....
I think Hawkins and Hoyer have been clear about their intended direction. Lke it or not. Dumb or unsuccessful it may be.
But they are going with their young talent, and trusting that the young talent they have will develop and provide the skeleton of a winning, contending team. The young rising talent will be the core of the team, and they will try to supplement it.
Can they execute that successfully? There are certainly questions, multiple questions that skeptics can ask. But for now, Hoyer and Hawkins do have a Buildican path and a direction.
I'm hoping it is a good one and that it works out, over time. I think the upcoming summer will tell a lot.
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I think Hawkins and Hoyer have been clear about their intended direction. Lke it or not. Dumb or unsuccessful it may be.
But they are going with their young talent, and trusting that the young talent they have will develop and provide the skeleton of a winning, contending team. The young rising talent will be the core of the team, and they will try to supplement it.
Can they execute that successfully? There are certainly questions, multiple questions that skeptics can ask. But for now, Hoyer and Hawkins do have a Buildican path and a direction.
I'm hoping it is a good one and that it works out, over time. I think the upcoming summer will tell a lot.
You need to keep getting young talent though and they need elite young talent. The Cubs have no plan for that.
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Will be interesting to see the price. I'll be surprised if the Cubs went $200 on Danbsy, but what do I know. Star he won't be, but he's been a variably good player, and Cubs can use more of those.
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7/$177, full no trade
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Russell Dorsey @Russ_Dorsey1
Swanson’s deal is a seven-year deal worth $177 million and includes a full no-trade clause, sources tell @BallySports and @Stadium.
I don't know who he is, but he is followed by several baseball writers/broadcasters I follow so he seems credible.
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Color me not surprised!
The Braves won some games with him. Hopefully the Cubs can as well.
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Russell Dorsey @Russ_Dorsey1
Swanson’s deal is a seven-year deal worth $177 million and includes a full no-trade clause, sources tell @BallySports and @Stadium.
I don't know who he is, but he is followed by several baseball writers/broadcasters I follow so he seems credible.
Use to cover the Cubs for one of the Chicago papers. Now he does TV for the d fox sports regional stations
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Color me not surprised!
The Braves won some games with him. Hopefully the Cubs can as well.
Wake me up when the Cubs have equivalents of Freeman, Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, Fried, etc….
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When you guys learned that his woman was in Chicago, why are you surprised? And "no trade" can be negotiated away.
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You need to keep getting young talent though and they need elite young talent. The Cubs have no plan for that.
Like I said, you can hate their plan, and I appreciate that their plan is different from yours. I think their view differs on two principles:
1. Top players can come in unexpected ways from unexpected places. Hawkins has mentioned this view, with examples from his Cleveland experience being Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber.
2. One way to win is with an assembly of good players. Hoyer's recent comment about Tampa spoke to that.
I think those two principles intersect: assemble good players, and sometimes, even if only temporarily, good players emerge as variably elite.
Like I say, you may hate the philosophy. But I think that's what they're working with.
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That's about as good a deal for Swanson as you could have hoped for in this market.
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7/$177, full no trade
$25 per. Back in June or October, I'd have imagined both the average and the length was way more than a good-nothing-special Swanson would make. But here it is.
Best wishes to him. I hope he plays hard, plays well, and that he's able to be a solid, complementary good player on a winning team this year and beyond.
I also hope that Cub fans let him play the best baseball that he's capable of, and give him credit for what best effort he can provide. Without ragging on him for being overpaid.
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Like I said, you can hate their plan, and I appreciate that their plan is different from yours. I think their view differs on two principles:
1. Top players can come in unexpected ways from unexpected places. Hawkins has mentioned this view, with examples from his Cleveland experience being Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber.
2. One way to win is with an assembly of good players. Hoyer's recent comment about Tampa spoke to that.
I think those two principles intersect: assemble good players, and sometimes, even if only temporarily, good players emerge as variably elite.
Like I say, you may hate the philosophy. But I think that's what they're working with.
Hoping for a 5% outcome isn’t a plan.
Jed said just like three months ago they played too many 1 run games and good teams blow out teams. What team does he build, one that is going to be even more dependent on 1 run games.
Cubs plan is simply to try and selll more tickets. The path to getting even a slightly better offense than last year is narrow and getting to be a really good offensive team in the next few years is difficult at best
If the Cubs had Wander Franco I’d feel a lot better about the future of the team.
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7 years. he'll be 29 this season. So, ages 29-35. Hopefully as a good athlete and a competitive guy, he'll be good for a bunch of them, and still OK towards the end. A lot of good athletes aren't washed at 34-35. Who knows, but maybe he'll be variably anti-awful even towards the back end, and not grossly sub-average?
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Suppose dansby/Hoerner lock up the middle infield for years, even if Swanson is mediocre or worse after a while....
What happens if they hypothetically had success in developing Cristian Hernandez or Ed Howard or Kevin Made? If so, the team might have some surplus of appealing, tradeable young value talent for a rare change. I know, I know, none of those guys are likely to ever hit enough to have any compelling, impact value. But, improbable stuff sometimes happens for successful teams.
What *if* hypothetically one of them did emerge as an actually good hitter? it would be super fun to have some surplus of prospect talent so that you could get involved in discussions for trade guys like Murphy.
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Suppose dansby/Hoerner lock up the middle infield for years, even if Swanson is mediocre or worse after a while....
Why are the Cubs trading young guys and not upgrading Swanson? If Swanson can’t play the Cubs need to cut him or off load his contract on someone. Don’t repeat the Heyward mistake.
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At $25, I believe that leaves Hoyer $27-28 underneath the lux line, just in case he's using hypothetically using that as a spending guideline. (I have no reason to assume any such guideline, but just hypothetically supposing...)
Who's left that they might like as a reliever?
I'm thinking $27 could cover Smyly, Mancini, and one modest-priced reliever? Probably not space for Conforto, Smyly, a reliever, and even an el-cheapo catcher.
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At $25, I believe that leaves Hoyer $27-28 underneath the lux line, just in case he's using hypothetically using that as a spending guideline. (I have no reason to assume any such guideline, but just hypothetically supposing...)
Who's left that they might like as a reliever?
I'm thinking $27 could cover Smyly, Mancini, and one modest-priced reliever? Probably not space for Conforto, Smyly, a reliever, and even an el-cheapo catcher.
$31-ish, Craig, by my calculations.
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Mike Petriello. (Baseball Savant guy)
Swanson has only had one above-average full-season year with the bat -- 115 OPS+ in 2022 -- but some of the underlying metrics do show a player who has learned how to square up the ball in meaningful ways
I guess my reaction here is the same as it always was, which is: He's a very good player who had a GREAT year, and I'm pleased he got a nice deal, but I'd be most happy if "he got a huge deal that was from a team that wasn't the team i root for."
Petriello has also added this in a longer post I can't copy. BA/SLG
Fastballs: .316/.505
Breaking Balls: .222/.310
Off Speed: .211/.281
At $25, I believe that leaves Hoyer $27-28 underneath the lux line, just in case he's using hypothetically using that as a spending guideline. (I have no reason to assume any such guideline, but just hypothetically supposing...)
Who's left that they might like as a reliever?
I'm thinking $27 could cover Smyly, Mancini, and one modest-priced reliever? Probably not space for Conforto, Smyly, a reliever, and even an el-cheapo catcher.
Honest question do you think that improves the offense unless Bellinger becomes MVP Bellinger?
What would you ball park the expected win range at?
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I’ll go positive on this and say I’m glad to have him. Solid all around player and improves the defense up the middle. He’s had a good three year run and finally showing why he was the #1 overall pick. Comes from a great Vandy baseball program. Actually at the very least the up the middle IQ with Vandy and Stanford guys is kind of cool to think about.
I’m glad to have him, and sadly a contract like that is what it costs to do business in this market. Hopefully we can add on some more talent by time 2024 rolls around, and he’ll be one of the leaders of the team.
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Since we've signed one QO free agent, how about another? Nathan Eovaldi, anyone? Two guys with multiple TJ surgeries in one offseason? Fun!
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Just a quick look at the 2022 and 2023 teams on offense
2022 2023
LF Happ Happ a wash
CF Ortega/Hermosilla Bellinger even bad Bellinger is a wash, with potential for gain
RF Suziki Suziki a wash, with potential gain
3B Wisdom Wisdom a wash
SS Hoerner Swanson an increase
2B McKinstry/Villar/etc. Hoerner a large increase
1B Schwindel/Rivas Mervis even a bad Mervis is a wash, with potential for large gain
C Contreras Gomes large decrease
DH Various Various a wash
The most likely result seems to be an offensive wash, with upgrade depending upon Bellinger and Mervis.
Just a quick look at the 2022 and 2023 teams on defense
2022 2023
LF Happ Happ a wash
CF Ortega/Hermosilla Bellinger Massive gain
RF Suziki Suziki a wash, with potential increase with experience
3B Wisdom Wisdom a wash, with increase if return to 2021 form
SS Hoerner Swanson a substantial increase
2B McKinstry/Villar/etc. Hoerner a massive increase
1B Schwindel/Rivas Mervis even a bad Mervis is a wash
C Contreras Gomes still to be decided
DH Various Various no possible change
The most probably outlook seems to be a wash on offensive with possible increase, combined with substantial increase on defense.
A team that plays a lot of 1 run games can increase run differential in two ways. Increase runs scored or decrease runs allowed. Either way can turn 1 run games into two or three run games.
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It would be really nice if the Cubs could find a way to trade for Danny Jansen. He's not a star. But given their current situation at catcher, I think he improves the team more than any other potentially available player.
Since the Rays always seem to be willing to trade players who are getting expensive and close to free agency, I wonder what it would take to get Yandy Diaz. He'd be a much more interesting corner infield addition than any of the available free agents.
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That is a best case scenario in a lot of ways
I can see the offense worse to slightly better next year. The Cubs are still going with contact pitchers. There is going to be a large error bar on next years team. It could be really bad to competing for a wild card. Moving the Cubs to where they aren’t that type of team is going be hard and expensive.
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Given that the Cubs didn't get any of the other guys, I'm relieved and pretty pleased. And the contract wasn't as high as some have predicted recently. I expect that the defense up the middle is going to make a significant difference over what it was last year (or previous years), and the offense at both SS & 2B should be improved as well.
Brendan Miller@brendan_
Top ranked defensive shortstops by OAA last season:
1. Dansby Swanson (+21) — Cubs
2. Nico Hoerner (+13) — Cubs
Jeff Passan@JeffPassan
The final numbers on a Dansby Swanson-Chicago Cubs deal should be done sometime soon, as
@thekapman first said, but the upshot is: The Cubs are going to have a new shortstop and the best defensive middle infield in baseball with Swanson at short and Nico Hoerner moving to second.
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No one has better defense up the middle than us.
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Dansby Swanson's preferred jersey number 7 is currently used by Yan Gomes.
(https://www.baseball-reference.com/req/202209210/images/headshots/c/c3fbd283_mlbam.jpg)
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That is a best case scenario in a lot of ways
I can see the offense worse to slightly better next year. The Cubs are still going with contact pitchers. There is going to be a large error bar on next years team. It could be really bad to competing for a wild card. Moving the Cubs to where they aren’t that type of team is going be hard and expensive.
On the contrary, I think it is a slightly pessimistic scenario, especially in light of the fact that the Cubs are indeed going with contact pitchers as they did last year, and the defensive improvement shoud be quite amplified. It would not take career years from Bellinger and Mervis to turn it into a substantial improvement. And it does not take into consideration that the pitching staff last year was rather good, and this year should be quite a bit better with the addition of Taillon and perhaps more, along with a full year of Wesneski, Sampson and Alzolay. The main piece they are missing is a closer, and the off season has not ended yet.
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Did anyone take CBS's shoelaces and belt?
At the start of the offseason I was thinking around 6/144, so honestly based on where the market is that's a fine deal. Almost exactly half of what Correa got. He was projected as a 33-HR guy if he'd played his home games at Wrigley last season. Outstanding D and baserunning. Well-liked as a clubhouse leader. We finally sign a guy like that after the last three offseasons and people still whinge and cry about it, amazing.
It's a start. It's the guy I figured we'd get all along. I wish we'd done it sooner so we'd have more options to build around him, but it's not too late to improve in other ways.
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It would be really nice if the Cubs could find a way to trade for Danny Jansen. He's not a star. But given their current situation at catcher, I think he improves the team more than any other potentially available player.
Since the Rays always seem to be willing to trade players who are getting expensive and close to free agency, I wonder what it would take to get Yandy Diaz. He'd be a much more interesting corner infield addition than any of the available free agents.
The third corner of my predicted triangle. Yes, Jansen would be awesome - he helps us on both sides of the ball. He has value on the Jays but not as much as would for a club like us, so the hard part is bridging that gap in terms of a trade. Especially as we don't match up especially well with them in terms of big-league talent, and they're trying to win now.
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I cant complain.
Good job Carter.
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I cant complain.
Good job Carter.
Someone had to fetch the coffee.
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Did anyone take CBS's shoelaces and belt?
Outstanding D and baserunning. Well-liked as a clubhouse leader. We finally sign a guy like that after the last three offseasons and people still whinge and cry about it, amazing.
It's a start. It's the guy I figured we'd get all along. I wish we'd done it sooner so we'd have more options to build around him, but it's not too late to improve in other ways.
I really hope I’m wrong, e wise I’d like to watch really good Cubs baseball again before I’m Curt’s age.
Swanson is a a perfectly fine player if the actually good, the problem is getting there. Machado, Ohtani and Soto aren’t going to look at Swanson and go that is where I have to play
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Once Taillon and Swanson are official, the 40-man roster will be at 40.
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Something really helpful would be signing a 3B (Turner comes to mind) so Wisdom could slide into a 1B platoon with Mervis. You'd still need another lefty bat for the DH role but I like Wisdom a lot more as a platoon 1B than an everyday 3B (though that's a pretty low bar).
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Craig's boy Mastrobuoni is going to nail down the hot corner.
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I’ve been one of those concerned about a Swanson signing. But seeing the 177/7, and knowing there’s just nowhere else we could put that money this year (and that next year is likely slim FA pickings, too) I’m glad we got him.
Don’t know that he can be counted on for a consistently above average bat, but the rest of his game is good-to-great enough that he’ll at least earn his annual salary the first half of it. And if the contract looks more regrettable on the back half, well, it’s a lot shorter back-half than either Correa’s or Bogaerts’ deals.
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I don't see any reason why Swanson can't remain outstanding defensively for the next 5 years at least. If at any point Swanson loses a step or his arm weakens, you can potentially swap him with Hoerner (who hopefully will be a mainstay of the Cubs middle IF).
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I'd be interested to know what Morel's value is around the league. Maybe it's not a lot after the bad second half. But he seems like he could be a player whose tools and initial MLB success would excite some teams, so maybe the Cubs could find a team that overvalues him.
He also popped up out of relative obscurity this year (he wasn't even on MLB.com's preseason top 30 Cubs prospects or Keith Law's top 20), and he's a huge strikeout/swing-and-miss guy, so I wonder if finding a sell high trade might be the right move for the Cubs.
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I’m sure Swanson will remain a good defensive SS for some time.
But, at least from a statistical perspective, last year was an *enormous* outlier for Swanson.
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I don't see any reason why Swanson can't remain outstanding defensively for the next 5 years at least. If at any point Swanson loses a step or his arm weakens, you can potentially swap him with Hoerner (who hopefully will be a mainstay of the Cubs middle IF).
Not to mention the Cubs have a boatload of SS prospects in the low minors.
If the Cubs could flip Morel for something good, I'd have no issues with that. I think he has value as a utility player but I'm skeptical that he'll ever be anything more than that.
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I don't see any reason why Swanson can't remain outstanding defensively for the next 5 years at least. If at any point Swanson loses a step or his arm weakens, you can potentially swap him with Hoerner (who hopefully will be a mainstay of the Cubs middle IF).
How many SS above the age 30 have had multiple seasons of elite defense?
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I suspect he would be outstanding at 2B when the time comes. I just don't see the concerns about his defense as justified. Concerns about his offense are more relevant.
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So what happens to Nico then? Does he move back to SS? Would you give him the same extension as Swanson?
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Why not?
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"Swanson is a a perfectly fine player if the actually good, the problem is getting there. Machado, Ohtani and Soto aren’t going to look at Swanson and go that is where I have to play "
No, but Fried might. How soon we forget. Even after Theo got here, the Cubs were making progress in the draft, but not with many free agents. But Theo appealed to Lester. And that started something. Joe came and finally convinced them to bring in Zobrist. Lester brought in Ross and Lackey. Fowler was attracted. The A's dealt us Russell. That all started somewhere. Will Swanson bring in any big guns. Probably, maybe not. But it's a damn sure bet that having nobody on our roster isn't going to attract anyone...especially if we continue to spend intelligently.
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I don't see why Nico couldn't play 2B, SS, or 3B based on whatever's best for the club. I wouldn't be in any hurry to give him $180 million yet, though. I'd like a little more track record with the bat first.
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I know Keith Law can be a bit of an outlier, but he certainly likes the Swanson signing, and its impact on the Cubs. He echoes the sentiment that it maybe gives the Cubs the best defensive middle infield tandem in baseball, but even more.
Swanson had a career year in 2022, with 6.4 fWAR, and how much you believe this is a new level for him and at least mostly sustainable likely informs your view of this signing. I’m on record as saying I’m more a believer than not, as I think the defensive improvement from him was real, and even if he’s just a league-average hitter going forward — which he was in 2021 — he’s still a 4+ WAR player, and likely to hold that for several years as he enters his age-29 season.
...
I’m probably the wrong person to listen to on this topic (or some other topics), but I think the Cubs could be dark-horse contenders for the division in 2023. They’re probably too far back of the wild card, given the way the Phillies, Giants and Padres have all made big pushes this winter, but the NL Central doesn’t have a dominant team at the top.
https://theathletic.com/4012214/2022/12/17/cubs-swanson-contract-expectations/
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Kind of an interesting and a what now seems to have been a somewhat prophetic piece from Bleacher Nation back in August.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/08/09/if-the-cubs-want-to-elevate-more-which-of-the-four-free-agent-shortstops-would-help-the-most/
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...Honest question do you think that improves the offense unless Bellinger becomes MVP Bellinger?
What would you ball park the expected win range at?
I don't know for expected wins. As you and I have both noted, the uncertainty bar seems massive. Who knows how that might change a little more. If I have to put a single number, maybe I'd say 80. But wildly unpredictable. 65-92, could be anywhere from top-5 pick to being a playoff team that deserves to be there. The uncertainty bar is very broad.
Offense, again I don't know! The uncertainty bar is massive. Even if you add Conforto, as opposed to say Mancini, both are still wildly unpredictable guys too. Bellinger, Mervis, DH, 3B, I don't pretend to know, and Fangraphs or other computer models really can't, either.
I think it could be fun to have a shot to be good. And I don't see how getting into the playoffs would be bad, even if it was eeking in as last wildcard or sneaking past a vulnerable Cardinals team. Winning helps attract guys. Even if there aren't any superstars worth attracting as FA's next winter, it still might be nice to be able to more easily appeal to support guys more on the Senga and Vasquez level.
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Why not?
$50 million is a lot for average offense and good defense middle infielders. At some point you need offense and elite pitching if you want to win.
"Swanson is a a perfectly fine player if the actually good, the problem is getting there. Machado, Ohtani and Soto aren’t going to look at Swanson and go that is where I have to play "
No, but Fried might. How soon we forget. Even after Theo got here, the Cubs were making progress in the draft, but not with many free agents. But Theo appealed to Lester. And that started something. Joe came and finally convinced them to bring in Zobrist. Lester brought in Ross and Lackey. Fowler was attracted. The A's dealt us Russell. That all started somewhere. Will Swanson bring in any big guns. Probably, maybe not. But it's a damn sure bet that having nobody on our roster isn't going to attract anyone...especially if we continue to spend intelligently.
You’re skipping over the part where the Cubs had an amazing amount of young talent that was near major league ready when the Cubs signed Lester. I don’t remember anyone thinking it was a bad idea to go after him at the time. Swanson is just doing something to do something and sell tickets.
If the Cubs don’t commit to spending above the CBT making this team better is going to be hard..
Bleacher Nation is running with the Cubs could have $90 million in salary coming off the books next year. Great you just have to replace possibly your best hitter, best starter, CF and then actually improve other positions. That money is going to disappear fast.
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How many SS above the age 30 have had multiple seasons of elite defense?
A lot of terrific defenders SSs past age 30. Very few beyond age 34 or 35. The 34 or 35 age guys include Tejada, Campaneris, Aparicio, Concepcion, JJ Hardy, Belanger, Jose Valentin, Gagne, Vizquel. Guys like Cardenas and Marty Marion thru age 33. Cal at 34/35. Of course, Ozzie was still terrific at 39.
Guys who do this are SSs who play a long time because they hit and are outstanding in their 20s. That alone is not a large group to draw from. So, won't see dozens and dozens of examples because of the limited field.
Also, the many, many Good Field, No Hit shortstops tend to taper off offensively to the point their careers are over and, so never get a shot to play well into their 30s. So, that subset is eliminated even though they might still be very good glove guys late-career.
I'm sure there are more guys than the ones I mentioned. But, the defensive decline past age 34/35 should be directed not so much at Swanson but at the other three guys signed to age 40.
Other thing about Swanson is that his main offensive tool is power----a 25 homer guy over past three seasons (pro-rating Covid season of course). Power tends to fade later than some other tools. Doubtful that Cubs will have more than an average player last two seasons of this deal but decent chance that the earlier seasons will be very good.
The question mark is how close or how far is Swanson from the 6 WAR guy from 2022. He got 1/2 of Correa's deal and over $100 MM than the Bogaerts and Turner deals because of this question.
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"You’re skipping over the part where the Cubs had an amazing amount of young talent that was near major league ready when the Cubs signed Lester. I don’t remember anyone thinking it was a bad idea to go after him at the time. Swanson is just doing something to do something and sell tickets. "
What part of making progress in the draft did you not understand? I didn't even mention taking a chance on that guy from Baltimore that needed retooling like Bellinger.
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McCann is probably the most likely catcher who ends up with Cubs because Mets are eager to dump him. But, if McCann and Carrasco come over, that's a $24 hit to CBT to include a guy who seems like a stiff, putting Cubs very close to CBT. Maybe Cubs willing to go over the CBT for more additions but not counting on that.
Very possible that Jays are holding up clubs who want a catcher from them, as they're in a good spot to just sit tight.
But, Jays are now almost exactly at the $233 CBT tax threshold and Jays have never done that in their history. So, makes me wonder if they might be not-too-crazy reasonable about a catcher if Cubs took back Kikuchi---a guy Cub were linked to a year ago when he hit free agency. If you look at projections last year where he might end up, lot of Cubs. Assuming that was drawn from something, maybe Cubs still like the guy. Might get Jansen as main guy if help Jays get below the tax.
Don't see Cubs giving Happ or the very top prospect guys but, say, a pitcher like Keegan Thompson would seem to be attractive to Jays----pre-arb, five years of clubs control, can start. Would hate to lose Thompson but have to give up stuff. A prospect or two also that Cubs can live with. Don't think Jays would be interested in Marigold, who may be released within next couple of weeks (projects AZ Phil). Could see Morel or Velazquez as some interest to Jays.
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Hard to guess what Hoyer might be thinking with lux line. So hard to figure whether he'll be fine to blow well past it, or wants to defer the clock for another year.
Suppose he hypothetically does NOT want to go over: $31 isn't that much to still add DH, SP, relief, + catcher. Whether as regular FA contracts, or in absorbing bad contracts (as suggested in the thoughtful Kikuchi/McCann concepts that have been suggested.) Plus in the Hendry and Theo eras, they usually saved ≥$5 for mid-season pickups. (If some things go right enough to feel like buyers, there may be much more clarity in terms of needs in July. And our prospects will have advanced and have more buying power, too?).
I won't be surprised if remaining spending is pretty modest. Relief, Smyly, Mancini, either some super-cheap bad-hitting catcher? Or else no catcher at all? (I've suggested that just winging it with Higgins might be fine. They've punted hitting back there anyway.).
Don't know how they scout guys, or how healthy they think Conforto is. But if you asked me, I'd prioritize a hitter. If that means settling for Wade Miley for your last pitcher, or skipping startng pitcher altogether, that would be fine with me. We've got young guys, with more coming by summer or sooner.
Trying to squeeze remaining priorities in under $31, while keeping margin for mid-season salary pickups, seems pretty challenging. I admit at this point, I'd not be super surprised if for this year Hoyer just decided to go beyond that? That would be pretty interesting.
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Craig, I think it's possible to get under the tax line. But it might mean Mancini instead of Conforto.
1B/DH - $12
C - $4
SP - $10
RP - $4
That's $30. If Madrigal goes, then you get $1 back. Also, every time you replace a pre-arb player with a free agent, you get ~$0.8 back in the tradeoff.
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My money is onn Smiley, and you might be able to get him for the 10 million.
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Unless they trade for someone, it's pretty clearly either Smyly or Kluber.
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Mancini seems to be the guy the want for 1B. Hoyer seems to be targeting Hendry’s quality guys.
The Cubs are going to have to commit to being well above the luxury tax to make this work.
Reading Sharma/Mooney’s latest piece, they keep saying the 2016 was built on pitching/defense. That team was first in the NL in wRC+ and 4th in MLB. Barnhart, Perez and Casali are mentioned as the catching names
C- Gomes/FA
1B- Manicini
2B- Hoerner
SS- Swanson
3B- Wisdom/Morel/TB guy/FA
LF-Happ
CF- Bellinger
RF- Suzuki
DH- Mervis
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Smyly it is...
https://cubbiescrib.com/posts/report-chicago-cubs-finalizing-deal-with-drew-smyly-01gmjxfw0wp4
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Jesse Rogers on ESPN 1000 just said Drew Smyly is going to return with the #Cubs, working on finishing a deal right now.
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I'd still like to add a couple of Turner,Belt,Conforto,and Carpenter.
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I'd like to see is bring back Craig Kimbrel too.
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Zips 6 year projections on Swanson
wRC+
2023 106
2024 103
2025 97
2026 95
2027 91
2028 86
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CUBluejays - I think you have made yourself clear regarding your views on Swanson. But he's a Cub now, so let's just see how things play out. Does that seem reasonable?
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Michael Cerami @Michael_Cerami
Source: I'm hearing Tucker Barnhart might be the catcher the Cubs are targeting to platoon with Yan Gomes behind the plate in 2023. Nothing done yet.
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Heyman and Rosenthal confirming Smyly agreement near.
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CUBluejays - I think you have made yourself clear regarding your views on Swanson. But he's a Cub now, so let's just see how things play out. Does that seem reasonable?
I’ve pretty much got it out of my system.
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Craig, I think it's possible to get under the tax line. But it might mean Mancini instead of Conforto.
1B/DH - $12
C - $4
SP - $10
RP - $4
That's $30. ...Also, every time you replace a pre-arb player with a free agent, you get ~$0.8 back in the tradeoff.
Yes, fully agree. A Smyly/Mancini/Barnhart fits in easily, and leaves some millions for relief and for July pickup. I can't imagine Barnhart costing much.
But Conforto, that might have been tough? Still, my post preceded Smyly announcement. Maybe not? *IF* they pinch with Smyly and Barnhart, plus with your noted $0.8 tradeoffs, might Conforto squeeze under too?
I wonder what they're thinking with closer? Boxberger? Hughes? Wick? Just wing it and improvise? In October I'd have thought Robertson or his equivalent would be priority. But yeah, *IF* you go with Boxberger and another $4 man, Ross may need to be pretty fluid with that.
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It sure seems to me that this off-season has moved very quickly. It's not even Christmas and most of the significant free agents are already signed. And that includes the Cubs having very few more moves to make (presumably). Is it my bad memory, or this really unusual?
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It sure seems to me that this off-season has moved very quickly. It's not even Christmas and most of the significant free agents are already signed. And that includes the Cubs having very few more moves to make (presumably). Is it my bad memory, or this really unusual?
Agree. Years ago I recall expecting it all over by Christmas, but not in recent years.
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Twins were in with good offer but they sensed later Swanson preferred Cubs. Dodgers never made official offer but monitored in case price dropped. Red Sox looked at it but perhaps couldn’t go higher than their Bogaerts offer. Braves tried around All-Star break but DS price rose.--Heyman
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Smyly is fine. Mancini and Barnhart would be horrendous. Need at least two more good hitters, and neither of them is that.
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They both do suck.
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I agree that we need more offense, but I think we have more than some are expecting. Bullinger without the shift should see his numbers rise. I also think some are calling Swanson's offensive year a career year when it just might be the start of him figuring it out. A year of experience for Suzuki may see his numbers improve as well.
Of course all 3 could be worse than expected, but I think we could be alright with 1 more bat.
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We need Turner and Conforto.
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Scratch off Turner.
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I've been more pro-Hoyer than most, but he needs to get Conforto. He's the guy the lineup needs. Get him and you're "good". You can add Mancini/Drury as a bonus if you want, but you need Conforto.
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Jeff, I get us wanting to get Conforto for DH and depth. But I'm not sure how we make sense for him? If he wants to rebuild value for his next contract, wouldn't he want a place with an open-for-competition outfield spot available? Not sure what his options are, but to me the Cubs just seem like a poor fit for him.
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Really like this take on Swanson:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dansby-swanson-heads-to-the-windy-city/
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Any details on Smyly's contract yet?
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Morosi mentioned Michael Fulmer on the MLBNetwork this morning.
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..take on Swanson:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dansby-swanson-heads-to-the-windy-city/
The late-Theo Cubs were accused of skewing HR/K, Baez, etc.. HR oriented, but short on contact, get blitzed by good pitchers, poor on situational hitting, etc..
I wonder if Swanson and Bellinger don't kinda shift back that direction? Kinda live on the HR's but die in between them? Mancini profiles that way also. Conforto walks enough to have solid OBP, so he'd be a lot nicer.
This is in part where Mervis is such a swing guy. His K-rate was pretty modest in AFL and at Iowa. So might he NOT actually be a big-K low-OBP guy? Yet scouting notes tend to profile him, too, as a mistake-hitting boom-or-buster guy.
The Cubs staff also has a lot of HR-vulnerable pitchers. Smiley, Hendricks, Taillon. I could imagine a lot of games that are determined by the HR, and where there might not be tons of action to watch in between the random HR? 4-hour games with 400 pitches, but somewhere in those 400 pitches two or three are HR's which win it or lose it?
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Fulmer seems like he'd be an interesting pickup.
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Shift thought: Has been appropriate observation that no-shift and infielders-on-dirt rules could be huge for lefty power guys like Bellinger, Mervis, and like Rizzo and Schwarber.
Madrigal is a wildly different profile: zero power, RH, not heavily shifted. But I wonder if the on-dirt rule might actually help him quite a bit. Some of his game is shooting balls over the infielders; with guys on dirt, won't that be a little bit easier?
I'm curious what the hitting-coach plan is for him, and what adjustments they want from him.
1. Just get healthy, and hope that's sufficient?
2. Try to pull the ball more often, and not be flaring everything to RF?
3. Swing harder, try to hit the ball out front a little bit more, try to drive it a bit more, so that outfielders can't play him quite so shallow?
4. If they stay so shallow, figure out how to drive it through the gaps for more doubles/triples?
5. Don't try that hard to power up more; but at least take more pitches and try to work more walks to boost the OBP?
I know he's viewed as a bust, and he seems to have no fit. But I'm wondering whether maybe being healthy and getting locked in, whether the good-contact line-drive hitter he was supposed to be might show up? Maybe the Sox Madrigal will come back, or an even better-OBP version, and as a bench guy, his offense will be kinda welcome? I know it, he was so bad last year. But *IF* you got the Sox version, I even wonder whether he might become part of the DH group, perhaps as a platoon guy if primary DH is somebody LH? Or, just imagining, supposing Wisdom looks lousy and loses 3B. Obviously the great Mastro could win the primary job and add a LH bat, but perhaps against LH starters Madrigal could start at 2B, with Hoerner shifting to 3rd?
I'm obviously a wild optimist. But just wondering whether some confluence of factors might somehow enable 2023 Madrigal to end up being a useful hit-maker and OBP guy.
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I don't see high pitchcount games by the Cub staff, craig. The Cubs seem to be emphasizing defense and I would expect their pitchers to be efficient, throwing strikes and having balls put into play early in counts.
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You're right, P2. We'll probably have a lot of 300-pitch, 3-hour games. The Cubs will have some swing-aggressive guys, too, in Swanson and Mervis, who won't run long pitch counts.
Still, both our offense and our pitching will probably be heavily HR-dependent. A game with 300 pitches will often hinge on whether 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 of those pitches happen to be HR pitches on that given day, each of which pitch+HR plays take only a couple of seconds.
It will help if we occasionally have baserunners in front of the random HR's.
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Madrigal is a wildly different profile: zero power, RH, not heavily shifted. But I wonder if the on-dirt rule might actually help him quite a bit. Some of his game is shooting balls over the infielders; with guys on dirt, won't that be a little bit easier? I'm curious what the hitting-coach plan is for him, and what adjustments they want from him…..
Az Phil points out that January 13 is when salary arbitration figures are exchanged. Under the new cba, salary arb agreements (without a hearing) are now one-year guaranteed contracts. So, Madrigal can accept Cubs offer (or come to an agreement) and it will be guaranteed.
With Hoerner now at second and other Cubs utility guys capable of playing 2B, seems like 2B-only Madrigal now has no role on Cubs. So, Az Phil expects—and think he’s right—that Madrigal is traded or waived before the January 13 arb date.
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He will be traded and wherever he goes he will hit .300 with limited walks and Ks. Why? Because that s what he has done every year if his career with the exception of last year. He is who he is.
The question is whether or not his body can be built up to steer clear of injuries.
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Low scoring games with good defense and lots of balls put into play. My kind of baseball.
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Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
Michael Conforto is a player the Cubs have been linked to this morning, sources say. Nothing close or final, but a player the team is monitoring. Rangers, Marlins and others thought to be in. twitter.com/marinomlb/stat…
Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
·
5m
For what it's worth, I've also heard some Conforto-Cubs rumblings this afternoon.
Still sounds like they're just one of the teams in the mix though, as opposed to actually closing in on anything.
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Morosi mentioned Michael Fulmer on the MLBNetwork this morning.
So if we sign Fulmer, I guess we go with a bullpen committee for closer with Fulmer, Boxberger, and maybe Keegan Thompson?
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Cubs Zone ™️
@CubsZone
Jameson Tailion on how the #Cubs stood out:
“Custom videos that no other team sent me. Selling me on the Wrigley experience, the history, the city and the fans, that stood out to me … The Cubs were the only team who went out of their way to meet me in person."
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Cubs Zone ™️
@CubsZone
Jameson Taillon says that he has talked to Dansby Swanson and that Dansby is very excited.
“He told me he’s going to be calling all the guys and that told me what he’s all about, definitely some leadership qualities.
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CHGO Cubs
@CHGO_Cubs
"He told me they were interested in me, I guess he kind of heard from some of his Cubs sources & said I would love it there & if I ever had any questions to run it by him. He had great things to say. Obviously he means a lot still to the Cubs organization." Taillon on Rizzo
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So if we sign Fulmer, I guess we go with a bullpen committee for closer with Fulmer, Boxberger, and maybe Keegan Thompson?
Hughes is Ross' most trusted reliever.
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He may well also be his best reliever at this point. But I think that Ross has often used him as an inning-plus reliever, which does not match up with the current "closer" definition.
In the long run, barring a closer brought in from the outside, I think that Ross would rather use Estrada (when ready) as closer, and Hughes as a "stopper" when the game seems to be at a critical time, regardless of inning.
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Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Besides Anthony Rizzo, Jameson Taillon said he spoke with Scott Effross and Trevor Williams to get insights on the Cubs before making his free-agent decision: “All the feedback I got was like, ‘Dude, if you have the opportunity to play there, you really have to take it.’”
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Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
New Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon on Dansby Swanson’s potential impact: “He’s going to make people better. I’ve heard he holds people accountable. I’ve heard he really wants to win. I don’t think he would have picked Chicago if he wasn’t convinced that we could build a winner.”
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Loving all the Taillon quotes. Seems like he's going to be an easy guy to root for.
Szymborski has the Cubs ZIPS projections for 2023 posting to FanGraphs tomorrow, but released a sneak peak on Twitter. Swanson's projection was 4.7 WAR. I'd be plenty happy with that.
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Hughes is Ross' most trusted reliever.
Yeah might be the guy for lefties in the 9th in a committee. Still it'd be hard to see him ahead of Fulmer or Boxberger in the late inning pecking order I'd think.
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Neither Fulmer or Boxberger are guys you want closing if you’re trying to win.
Seems to me if the Cubs don’t bring in someone with at least some track record of success closing, they’re basically rolling the dice that Wick doesn’t suck and is up to the job.
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Yeah might be the guy for lefties in the 9th in a committee. Still it'd be hard to see him ahead of Fulmer or Boxberger in the late inning pecking order I'd think.
It could be. But He gave Hughes 12 save opportunities last season. Wick only got 14.
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Ron, thanks for the Taillon quotes. Seems like an easy guy to like. Not sure how talented they'll be, or smart, but I think the Cubs will have a nice group of guys, easy to root for. I think his notes about the effectiveness of the Cubs recruiting pitch is also encouraging. With some other guys who have chosen elsewhere, I've wondered whether Hoyer perhaps isn't the most inspiring, persuasive recruiter or charismatic communicator, and whether perhaps that could work against the Cubs. So nice to hear something positive about their capacity for recruiting. Also really neat that Rizzo and Effross could be good supporters, given perhaps some hurt feelings on Anthony's part.
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Low scoring games with good defense and lots of balls put into play. My kind of baseball.
Good defense, strikes, and lots of balls in play is fun and appealing. I'm not a huge fan of low-scoring with the few runs that do score largely coming on random HR's, though. I prefer innings in which scoring threats develop, and I can kind of feel a crucial situation developing, and then having multiple crucial pitches that I feel I really want to watch. Rather than nothing seeming to be cooking, then games hinging on, "Oops, missed his spot, there goes the HR."
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I don't see high pitchcount games by the Cub staff, craig. The Cubs seem to be emphasizing defense and I would expect their pitchers to be efficient, throwing strikes and having balls put into play early in counts.
I agree, will throw a lot of strikes and limit the walks, and accept some HR-factory as part of the equation. I do wonder whether "pitch-to-contact-staff" phrasing doesn't undersell the K-capacity of our rotation? Our K/9:
-Steele 9.5
-Wesneski 9.0
-Keegan 8.5
-Taillon 8.1
-Smyly, Stroman, 7.7
-Hendricks 7.0
Average is around 8. It's not great, but it's not bad, I don't think? I think they should have average/solid K-rates, but low walk rates. I'm guessing the K/BB rates should be quite good, well above average. (For the rotation guys that is; relief may be VERY different.). For rotation, I think keeping the HR's from being awful will be key.
Games should be more fun to watch if guys throw strikes, balls get put in play quickly, and there aren't super long AB's.
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So if we sign Fulmer, I guess we go with a bullpen committee for closer with Fulmer, Boxberger, and maybe Keegan Thompson?
I'm OK with not having a rigid commitment to one guy. I'd be fine with using different guys, and I won't be surprised if he primary closer in July isn't different from in April. Boxberger has had 82 saves, so he may be the default righty. But Ross trusts Hughes, so who knows.
I'd very much like to add Fulmer. He's been >60IP each of last two years, with decent stuff and control. I think the Cubs success with relievers is seeing something they can improve. So if he's already been pretty good, but they think they can make him better yet, I'd love to see what Hottovy might do with him.
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League average for starters last year was 8.18 and 21%.
The more contact you allow, the more BABIP luck enters into play. You might like the game played that way, but it isn’t the best way to go about winning games.
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I really hope we sign Conforto.
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League average for starters last year was 8.18 and 21%.
The more contact you allow, the more BABIP luck enters into play. You might like the game played that way, but it isn’t the best way to go about winning games.
Well said, thanks. Yeah, a snappy game to watch obviously isn't necessarily the best way to win!
I posted the Cubs starter K/9 rates, and as a group they are all kinda around average.
1. Hendricks at 7.0 was the only one notably below.
2. The other six ranged 7.7-9.5, which seems to compare solid/average to 8.18 league.
3. Obviously not deGrom-esque, and I know the goal is not solid/average, it's being the best.
4. K-rates are lower for starters than relievers. So our 7.7-9.5 starters compare a little more favorably relative to other rotation pitchers, no?
On Taillon: He's been 23.2 and 20.7% the last two seasons, so he seems to be right around average. Interesting in Athletic article: "The Cubs emphasized putting hitters away more effectively.... Taillon could probably benefit from throwing some chase sliders and curveballs more often going forward, and it appears that will be one point of emphasis heading into spring training." So that suggests they have ideas where he can boost his K-rate and be better than average.
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Cubs are among possibilities for Trey Mancini. Would be nice spot for Notre Dame alum but others are in, too.--Heyman
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Blue, while K-rate is solid/average, walks and K/BB rates were well above average, for the collection of rotation guys. For the Cub starters, their walk-rates and K/BB rates (I'm keeping K-rate in parenth):
MLB Average for walk-rate and K/BB: 3.1, 2.75.
-Steele 3.8, 2.5 (9.5)
-Keegan 3.4, 2.5 (8.5)
-Wesneski 2.8, 3.2 (9.0)
-Hendricks 2.6, 2.8 (7.0)
-Stroman, 2.5, 3.0 (7.7)
-Smyly 2.2, 3.5 (7.7)
-Taillon 1.6, 4.7 (8.1)
Steele and Keegan are the only guys with walk-rates above league normal. The others are all significantly sub-average. Likewise Keegan and Steele are the only guys with K/BB ratios below league normal. Taillon and Smyly were WAY above average.
Thoughts:
1. K/BB rates are quite good, advantageous.
2. Combo of high K/BB, average K, and potentially elite defense on balls-in-play could/should make pitching/run-prevention significantly above-average.
3. **If** offense could hypothetically be average, the combo could/should make for a winning team; possible a legit playoff team?
4. **Counterargument**: K/BB and defense might seem favorable, but it ignores the most important run-prevention variable: THE HOME RUN!!! In assembling a strong K/BB staff at limited salary, Hoyer has accepted a bunch of HR-factory boys. The K/BB stuff might all look pretty nice for a lot of these guys, but how effective they'll **actually** be will hinge heavily on whether or not they can limit the bombs.
5. Hendricks is a big variable. The Cubs don't have a huge margin to allow for a bad starter. if he's allowing lots of HR's with his low K-rate, that could be a drag.
6. That was then, this is now, and nothing stays the same. Guys might not perform at nearly the same level this year. What if Steele is a bit wilder, but suddenly also starts allowing league-normal HR's? Smyly had a hot finish to a small-sample season; could regress big-time. Wesneski almost certainly won't sustain what he did. On the more hopeful side, get Taillon out of short-RF-porch Yankee stadium, might he not get his HR's back to normal, and perhaps be very good? Hendricks is a crafty guy; *if* he comes back healthy, might he not command better and get closer to the good pitcher he was? Who knows!
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Cubs are among possibilities for Trey Mancini. Would be nice spot for Notre Dame alum but others are in, too.--Heyman
Mastrobuoni and Darius Hill might like that. I'm probably missing somebody, but for bench options:
1. LH: McKinstry (who we know can't hit), Mastrobuoni and Darius Hill
2. RH: Morel, Madrigal, Velasquez, Higgins, Bote.
You'd think they'd want at least some lefty other than Turner Barnhart no? If the only lefty bat Mastrobuoni needs to beat out is McKinstry, his path is not overwhelming.
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I struggle with Conforto. With his injuries and no play for over a year, do we really want to take a chance at a price close to Bellinger's? Seems like it's a bigger risk.
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Blue, while K-rate is solid/average, walks and K/BB rates were well above average, for the collection of rotation guys. For the Cub starters, their walk-rates and K/BB rates (I'm keeping K-rate in parenth):
MLB Average for walk-rate and K/BB: 3.1, 2.75.
-Steele 3.8, 2.5 (9.5)
-Keegan 3.4, 2.5 (8.5)
-Wesneski 2.8, 3.2 (9.0)
-Hendricks 2.6, 2.8 (7.0)
-Stroman, 2.5, 3.0 (7.7)
-Smyly 2.2, 3.5 (7.7)
-Taillon 1.6, 4.7 (8.1)
Steele and Keegan are the only guys with walk-rates above league normal. The others are all significantly sub-average. Likewise Keegan and Steele are the only guys with K/BB ratios below league normal. Taillon and Smyly were WAY above average.
Thoughts:
1. K/BB rates are quite good, advantageous.
2. Combo of high K/BB, average K, and potentially elite defense on balls-in-play could/should make pitching/run-prevention significantly above-average.
3. **If** offense could hypothetically be average, the combo could/should make for a winning team; possible a legit playoff team?
4. **Counterargument**: K/BB and defense might seem favorable, but it ignores the most important run-prevention variable: THE HOME RUN!!! In assembling a strong K/BB staff at limited salary, Hoyer has accepted a bunch of HR-factory boys. The K/BB stuff might all look pretty nice for a lot of these guys, but how effective they'll **actually** be will hinge heavily on whether or not they can limit the bombs.
5. Hendricks is a big variable. The Cubs don't have a huge margin to allow for a bad starter. if he's allowing lots of HR's with his low K-rate, that could be a drag.
6. That was then, this is now, and nothing stays the same. Guys might not perform at nearly the same level this year. What if Steele is a bit wilder, but suddenly also starts allowing league-normal HR's? Smyly had a hot finish to a small-sample season; could regress big-time. Wesneski almost certainly won't sustain what he did. On the more hopeful side, get Taillon out of short-RF-porch Yankee stadium, might he not get his HR's back to normal, and perhaps be very good? Hendricks is a crafty guy; *if* he comes back healthy, might he not command better and get closer to the good pitcher he was? Who knows!
Thanks for those stats, craig. I was wondering how some of our kids measured up. Steele still scares me. He's often at 100 pitches by 4th and 5th inning. Thompson seems to excel in relief. Wesneski is a guy I like and I disagree with your assessment. I don't want to keep signing #4 and #5 pitchers, pushing kids to Iowa.
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Thoughts:
1. K/BB rates are quite good, advantageous.
2. Combo of high K/BB, average K, and potentially elite defense on balls-in-play could/should make pitching/run-prevention significantly above-average.
3. **If** offense could hypothetically be average, the combo could/should make for a winning team; possible a legit playoff team?
4. **Counterargument**: K/BB and defense might seem favorable, but it ignores the most important run-prevention variable: THE HOME RUN!!! In assembling a strong K/BB staff at limited salary, Hoyer has accepted a bunch of HR-factory boys. The K/BB stuff might all look pretty nice for a lot of these guys, but how effective they'll **actually** be will hinge heavily on whether or not they can limit the bombs.
5. Hendricks is a big variable. The Cubs don't have a huge margin to allow for a bad starter. if he's allowing lots of HR's with his low K-rate, that could be a drag.
6. That was then, this is now, and nothing stays the same. Guys might not perform at nearly the same level this year. What if Steele is a bit wilder, but suddenly also starts allowing league-normal HR's? Smyly had a hot finish to a small-sample season; could regress big-time. Wesneski almost certainly won't sustain what he did. On the more hopeful side, get Taillon out of short-RF-porch Yankee stadium, might he not get his HR's back to normal, and perhaps be very good? Hendricks is a crafty guy; *if* he comes back healthy, might he not command better and get closer to the good pitcher he was? Who knows!
1) If you don't strike people out and walk people you don't ever make it the majors. It would be advantageous if the K's where higher.
2) I think this has potential for run prevention. It also could back fire just from bad BABIP luck. It makes the error bars on potential outcomes large.
3) Even with Conforto/Mancini is probably at best a .500 team. The Cubs where about 240 runs behind the Cardinals in runs and runs allowed last year in total. I don't think that gap has closed much unless the Cubs get a lot of 90th percentile performances. Moving positions up to average and taking away your best hitter won't probably do much for the offense. Being in a division where only 1 team is above average helps alot. If the Cubs where in the East or West they would have zero chance at the playoffs. The Brewers and Cubs are probably battling for second place in the who can outperform projections. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs had 85 or 70 wins next year. I really don't view this team as materially all that different from 2022, just maybe a little better shot at being .500.
4) Also just bad old BABIP luck.
6) The Cubs finally have some decent starting depth for injuries.
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Jake on Dansby:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1605254397851754499
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1) If you don't strike people out and walk people you don't ever make it the majors. It would be advantageous if the K's where higher.....
It's advantageous to be better than average, I think! If our K/BB is better than average, significantly so, that's advantageous.
If our defense is better than average, and it should be significantly so, that's advantageous.
If K's are average, and both defense and walks are significantly above average, the sum could lead to significantly above-average run prevention.
(Heh heh, I fully realize that any such hypothetical advantage from the defense and the non-Hendricks starters might hypothetically be negated is Hendricks is very bad but they stick with him for a long time anyway; or if the bullpen ends up being gross; or if the HR-allowance rate is dreadfully below-league-average.)
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...
2) ...It also could back fire just from bad BABIP luck. It makes the error bars on potential outcomes large.
...
4) Also just bad old BABIP luck....
I'm not that concerned with BABIP luck. Over 160 games, a lot of BIP for any pitching staff. With >>3000 BIP over a season, I imagine the luck factor tends to level some? (Although perhaps 2016 reminds us otherwise?).
Either way, try to control what you can, and BABIP luck can't be.
Which, I guess, is your point. A 0.2 boost in team K/9 over a full season would reduce BIP by 32. So that could be saving a dozen hits.
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... A 0.2 boost in team K/9 over a full season would reduce BIP by 32. So that could be saving a dozen hits.
A 0.2 reduction in team BB/9 over a full season would reduce walks by 32.
If I had a choice, I wonder if an incremental reduction in walk rate isn't as or more valuable than an equal incremental improvement in K-rate?
For example, if the Cubs threw more chase pitches and accepted more walks, could they bump the team K/9 by 0.2 but at the expense of raising the team BB/9 by 0.2? If so, would that be worth it, or perhaps counterproductive?
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I don't know the hard numbers on this, but a walk as a negative result is fixed - it's a walk. The severity of the penalty depends only on context. A BIP has a range of possible negative results, and a non-walk has a range of negative results up to and including a home run. A K (barring a dropped third strike) is a fixed positive result which precludes all possible negative results (except reducing chanced for double plays).
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...3) ...The Cubs where about 240 runs behind the Cardinals in runs and runs allowed last year in total. I don't think that gap has closed much unless the Cubs get a lot of 90th percentile performances. Moving positions up to average and taking away your best hitter won't probably do much for the offense. .....
That 240-run differential is massive. That is very sobering for an optimist like me. The scoring differential was 115.
What might it take to erase that scoring differential, or at least to shrink it?
1. Obviously the Cubs getting some 90th-percentile performances would help.
2. The Cardinals *NOT* getting some 90th percentile performances might close the gap? Pujols and Goldschmidt.
*Entering last season, how likely was it that Pujols would post an .895 OPS and 154 OPS+?
*Or Goldschmidt post a 180 OPS+ with .981 OPS? He hadn't been above .883 in any of his 3 previous seasons, and at age 34 wasn't at an obviously breakout age. .
*If Goldschmidt is really good but not quite THAT great, and without Pujols, the Cardinals offense might not be so extraordinary.
3. if the Cubs or erase the gap, our biggest runs-improvement opportunity could hypothetically occur at the back end. I don't think it could have been probable that Madrigal would be SO bad; Simmons SO bad; Heyward SO bad; Hermosillo SO bad; Jackson Frazier SO bad; etc. The Cubs had over 1200 AB on awful hitters like that, before even counting Reyes, Bote, McKinstry, Ortega, and Velasquez. Add those and you're at 2000. Replace those 2000 AB and you could add a bundle of runs.
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I would love to see Gary Sanchez In a cubs uniform, and the opportunity to work with David Ross would be huge for him!--Cameron Maybin
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I don't know the hard numbers on this, but a walk as a negative result is fixed - it's a walk. ... .. a non-walk has a range of negative results .... A K (barring a dropped third strike) is a fixed positive result ..).
For sure.
Part of my thinking is that K's and BB's are often interconnected for any individual pitcher. *Any* pitcher can boost his K rate *if* he's willing to pay the typical cost, which is a variable increase in his walk rate. Nibble more, throw more chase pitches, throw fewer fastballs, it will boost K's but it doesn't come without some cost.
I think every pitcher is always trying to find the ideal balance.
In Taillon article, it sounded like the Cubs and Taillon want to tweak his balance, and boost his K's even if it means walking guys somewhat more often.
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Craig I don’t think the Cubs starters are average at striking people out. Steele and Taillion are the only guys that are going to average to an above, everybody else was below average. Wesneski might be above, but with Smyly coming back I don’t think he is in the plane until people are injured or ineffective.
Not walking people is great, it is important. The problem is the Cubs aren’t going to score a lot of runs unless people really over perform. When you are playing tight games and have a team that is making a living on suppressing BABIP you only need a few games where BABIP luck strikes in a few instances where it can really tank or make a season or make it average. It will average out over a season, but when the diving stop or blurb double happens will decide what the Cubs are.
If they had players quivalent to Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber at 3B/1B/DH this team could be really good. They don’t, so this season is going to be flip of the coin.
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Craig I don’t think the Cubs starters are average at striking people out. Steele and Taillion are the only guys that are going to average to an above, everybody else was below average. Wesneski might be above, but with Smyly coming back I don’t think he is in the plane until people are injured or ineffective. ...
Average K-rate for starting pitchers is ~8.1. (8.18 is overall, but mlb rate for starters is lower than for relievers)
*Hendricks is way below average. *IF* he starts lots of games, the collective rotation will be sub-average at K-rate this season. I'm focussing on the other-than-Hendricks crowd.
Our non-Hendricks starters were average, actually slightly above average.
*Four guys 8.1 - 9.5;
*Stroman and Smily slightly below at 7.7.
*Average those 6 guys and you're ≥8.1.
-Steele 9.5
-Wesneski 9.0
-Keegan 8.5
-Taillon 8.1
-Smyly, 7.7
-Stroman, 7.7
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Keegan’s K rate as a starter was 7.58, reliever 10.58.
Taillion was below average as well.
That leaves Steele and Wesneski as above average and Wesneski probably isn’t getting a ton of starts early on.
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https://theathletic.com/4022502/2022/12/20/cubs-cody-bellinger-offense/
Bellinger article with some thoughts on how he might not be as awful.
"The Cubs staff is focused on strengthening Bellinger’s core and how his hips move when he loads. After the injuries, he ended up being too far on his back side and the timing issues kept him from being the player he once was."
"“Long story short, there are things that I thought in the past that weren’t working anymore,” Bellinger said when asked whether injuries had an impact on his swing mechanics. “My body was just moving different. So I have to work with that. That’s what happens as life happens and you get older."
Kinda vague. He's not going to get young again. This phrasing doesn't necessarily suggest that he can recapture the physical capacity that he had when he was good.
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League average for starters last year was 8.18 and 21%
Oops, I misunderstood your post. I thought 8.18 was for all pitchers, not already targeted for starters. In which case our 8.1 guy Taillon was already a bit below.
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Swanson is official. 40-man roster is full.
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If they decide to sign someone else, who is the next to go.
My vote is McKinstry. No options left. No clear value over Mastrobuoni.
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If they decide to sign someone else, who is the next to go.
My vote is McKinstry. No options left. No clear value over Mastrobuoni.
Players, McKinstry or Rivas.
Pitchers, Uelman, Roberts or Rodriguez.
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Rivas, Roberts
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Well, since we aren't going to use him, Wesnecki, and since we're told he really isn't that good, Swanson.
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Watching Dansby’s press conference…I had been wondering what his mindset was re: playing 162 games, as he did this season, and whether he would be receptive to the “scheduled days off” that have become a thing with the Cubs.
I was glad to hear someone ask him about it. He stated that it definitely had been discussed, and mentioned there was definitely some pushback in the conversation, although not many details past that. He did say that it’s his job to play 162, and he expects to do so.
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ManRod has been mentioned, and reb noted his poor swing-and-miss rate. In his small big-league sample, he's only 6.9 K/9.
But in the minors (which isn't a big sample size either, only 145 innings) he's 12.9 K/9.
I'm kinda hopeful that *if* he can be steady healthy for a while, that maybe he could hypothetically settle in and locate his curve, and better resemble the K-man he was in the minors? Hoping that having some healthy time with Hottovy and Moskos he'll turn out better than we've seen.
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The Dansby Swanson press conference was actually kind of informative. There were the sort generic comments one would expect, but the fact that he got and reviewed detailed info on Cubs at both the major and minor league level was pretty interesting. As was the fact that he has clear idea of what he wants to do to become a better hitter, and that he and Carter Hawkins have already had some discussion about that. He seemed genuine and genuinely happy to be a Cub for the next seven years. The grandfather story seemed to have some real influence on his thoughts about the Cubs even. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone so thoroughly and explicitly embrace being the role of being a leader.
Looking forward to seeing him play and very much looking forward to what should be a very, very good defensive team.
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Watching Dansby’s press conference…I had been wondering what his mindset was re: playing 162 games, as he did this season, and whether he would be receptive to the “scheduled days off” that have become a thing with the Cubs.
I was glad to hear someone ask him about it. He stated that it definitely had been discussed, and mentioned there was definitely some pushback in the conversation, although not many details past that. He did say that it’s his job to play 162, and he expects to do so.
Good for him. I hate the "scheduled days off" thing. If he slumps, sit him for a day or so. Otherwise, let him play as long as he is healthy. I also hate "resting non-catcher position players by having them DH. Get an over the hill but still good hitter, and leave him DH until he is no longer a good hitter.
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Good for him. I hate the "scheduled days off" thing. If he slumps, sit him for a day or so. Otherwise, let him play as long as he is healthy. I also hate "resting non-catcher position players by having them DH. Get an over the hill but still good hitter, and leave him DH until he is no longer a good hitter.
Even if there is data showing they would play better and avoid injuries that land you on the DL?
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Having watched more Braves than Cubs the last couple of years, one thing I don't like about Brian Snitker is how infrequently he gives players days off. There were times last year that Riley and Olson looked like they were running on fumes, but he'd still just write them into the lineup everyday. I think Swanson will benefit from sitting a few times next year.
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Even if there is data showing they would play better and avoid injuries that land you on the DL?
That depends upon how strong the data is.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6dRRQxY-_A
Swanson press conference. Very comfortable guy. Seemed like he was pretty thorough in talking to people (Smyly, Joc, Heyward), and in researching and getting sold on the farm system and the future. Answered questions well, pretty articulate, and in a sincere/wholesome way. Talked about suggesting a couple of things to Ross. Can see how the leadership factor would be pretty natural. His sense of team, treating people well, service, etc. seem like he'd be a great teammate.
I also thought it was encouraging how he called Hawkins and talked to him, and it was perhaps Hawkins who kind of sold him on the building/development process and the future. And talked about Hawkins being straightforward about plans, etc.. No disrespect to Hoyer, but I'm not sure he's the most charismatic recruiter. I'm kinda hopeful that Hawkins might be a good asset for that in future.
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By the way, why didn't they have a press conference like that for Miles Mastrobuoni?
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They did. But by the time they managed to pronounce his name, there was no time left to interview him.
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Swanson is a thoughtful guy and an intense competitor, that's never been in question. Has won big everywhere he's played. The intangible side with him is never going to be a problem. The whole "162 games" thing is a non-issue, they'll work it out. Maybe DH him 15 times a year.
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taillon press conference link. Another enthusiastic, cheerful guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlDiDBW61HQ
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Like Swanson, Taillon seems not only enthusiastic, but also very thoughtful about exactly how he thinks he can improve, as well as how he fits in with the Cubs system. Bellinger is the one guy of the three who seems less cerebral (if that'd the right word).
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Source: Cuban pitcher Roenis Elias just got a deal with the Chicago #Cubs , he is pitching really good in the Dominican winter league with the Aguilas.
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Bellinger press conference. Seems like another nice guy, and very enthusiastic about Wrigley, day baseball, and Cubs fans. He's pretty enthusiastic about the team's chances. Definitely less cerebral about his craft. He had several questions that invited him to analyze how his swing and hitting had deteriorated, and how his injuries might have impacted his hitting mechanics, etc. But he never picked up on any of those, or detailed what went wrong or how he thinks he might get fixed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iedQj7rnq3o
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That story Dansby told about his grandfather was pretty impactful.
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It’s going to be *really* fun to watch Swanson and Hoerner compete together: going to make for some extraordinary defensive play and electric chemistry.
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It’s going to be *really* fun to watch Swanson and Hoerner compete together: going to make for some extraordinary defensive play and electric chemistry.
It willl, and it’s a good start. But I sure hope Jed has some sort of plan to add some hitters or the offense could be brutal to watch.
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Fangraphs projected WAR (I think it is just Steamer which isn’t my favorite)
NL Central (Difference from Cubs WAR)
1) Cardinals (12)
2) Brewers (8)
3) Pirates (0.6)
4) Cubs (8th worst)
5) Reds (-6)
The 3-0 podcast was talking about free agency and they were talking about getting the first guy to take a contract and how the Padres did that with Hosmer. Hopefully Swanson turns out better and the Cubs can get Devers next year.
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Even with the lousy offense, the Cubs were 39-31 late season. I love Willson, but when the Cubs were winning late in season, he was not that major of a contributor.
Willson only started 34 games in the second half, with just 128 AB and a .219 BA.
For July-August-September, when the Cubs won a lot:
*AB 74, 77, and 21 AB.
*BA' .149, .221, and .191.
*OPS .489, .833, and .701.
During the sliver of season when they were winning, Willson was not that huge or irreplaceable a component.
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The Cubs did well in the last portion of the year because the pitching staff did better than could have been expected. Not only did their starters do well, but their bullpen was one of the best performers in baseball during that time.
The general assumption seems to be that they were playing over their heads, but I do not agree with that. The performance of Wesneski, Assad, Thompson and Sampson is discounted because they lack "strike out pitches". Although strike outs are a great thing, they are not the only thing. Look at the success the Cardinals have had with great defense defense and pitchers like Wainwright, who is NOT a big strikeout pitcher. But he has the stuff to win.
It looks to me that the Cubs are moving in that direction, and away from the long held philolophy that slow-footed sluggers put fans in the seats. But it is foolish to think that such a reversal can be done overnight. The Cubs made a large move this winter, and they will be a much better team next year than they were last year. And they will have the money to make more moves next winter, when they have a much better idea of exactly what their need will be. Does Davis get over his injuries and earn a place in the outfield. The same for Canario? Does PCA force the Cubs to find a new home for Happ? What is a realistic expectation of future performance and timing of Cassie, Alcantara, and Horton and other pitchers. Can Mervis actually hit at the big league level?
Why spend a lot of money on an outfielder or a first baseman if they will not be needed in the future, merely because they will make us a little better this coming season?
To get back to the subject of pitching, I think we will get better performance from Wesneski, Assad, Thompson and Sampson than anyone dreams of at this point. Time will tell.
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One nice thing is the volume of potentially solid pitchers that they have. The staff will be in pretty good shape to endure the expected injuries and subpar performers.
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Even with the lousy offense, the Cubs were 39-31 late season. I love Willson, but when the Cubs were winning late in season, he was not that major of a contributor.
Willson only started 34 games in the second half, with just 128 AB and a .219 BA.
For July-August-September, when the Cubs won a lot:
*AB 74, 77, and 21 AB.
*BA' .149, .221, and .191.
*OPS .489, .833, and .701.
During the sliver of season when they were winning, Willson was not that huge or irreplaceable a component.
Any idea on the dates for this?
From July 1 to the end of the season, the Cubs had a -8 run differential.
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Fangraphs projected WAR (I think it is just Steamer which isn’t my favorite)
...4) Cubs (8th worst)....
Fangraphs predicts Wisdom to get worse. And predicts Bellinger to be on par with Wisdom, both being worse than 2022 Wisdom. Given that Bellinger has been one of the worst 10 hitters in baseball for the last couple of years, Fangraphs is reasonable to project Bellinger as bad-wisdom.
Bellinger kinda represents Hoyer's upcoming season. Assuming Bellinger is bad-wisdom, Hoyer's plan will fail, be bad-wisdom, and the season will tank. But if Hoyer had good wisdom and Bellinger is somehow fixed , the season may pleasantly surprise. (I'm not suggesting being MVP great, or wRC+ of 161 again, but wRC+ variably north of 100. He was ≥112 in all four of the pre-injury seasons.).
I just think that computer modeling may have large uncertainties, both with a guy like Bellinger, and with developing young pitchers.
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https://theathletic.com/4025732/2022/12/21/braves-dansy-swanson-alex-anthopoulos/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Nice article. Alex A is very complimentary of Swanson. Seemed obvious that Dansby wanted to go back and would have taken quite a bit less to do so, but the gap was just too large.
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Cubs sign Barnhart. Catcher is going to be awful in 2023.
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Barnhart was terrible last season but his splits against LHP were pretty respectable before that. Maybe last season was an aberration?
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Barnhart was terrible last season but his splits against LHP were pretty respectable before that. Maybe last season was an aberration?
RHP
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Thanks for the correction, Jeff.
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https://ontapsportsnet.com/cubs/tucker-barnhart-chicago-cubs-contract-details-catcher-platoon-yan-gomes
Wow, I thought it would be like $2/1. 2-years, $6.5 guaranteed, player option for year 2, escalators up to $9.5.
Will be curious to see the structure in more detail.
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Craig, Austin Hedges got $5/1.
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https://theathletic.com/4025732/2022/12/21/braves-dansy-swanson-alex-anthopoulos/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Nice article. Alex A is very complimentary of Swanson. Seemed obvious that Dansby wanted to go back and would have taken quite a bit less to do so, but the gap was just too large.
Yeah that was a pretty interesting interview. That Athletic beat writer for the Braves sounds downright annoying though.
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Should have resigned Willson.
Barnhart's a scrub.
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Craig, Austin Hedges got $5/1.
:):). Thanks, my sense of value is not up to date! :)
These kinds of contracts must be very inspiring to guys like Pablo Aliendo and Ethan Hearn.
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Interesting that Drew Smyly, after being "close" on Sunday, has gotten no further reports or finality. Agreement there, agent and Hoyer/Hawkins have other priorities, so they'll get back to finalize the details when other more active decisions are completed?
Smyly had Christmas concerts for his kids this week, and then wants to be home with them during their Christmas vacations, so won't go in for his physical till January?
Or, is he a Carlos Correa, and when he did go in for his physical, they found a problem?
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:):). Thanks, my sense of value is not up to date! :)
It could be worse. BN Brett interpreted the deal as $6.5/1.
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Yeah that was a pretty interesting interview. That Athletic beat writer for the Braves sounds downright annoying though.
Yes, Dansby Swanson comes off looking great in that interview. Very happy he's a Cub. (And I agree about the beat writer as well).
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Yes, Dansby Swanson comes off looking great in that interview. Very happy he's a Cub. (And I agree about the beat writer as well).
Yeah we're definitely getting a first rate guy with Swanson, and I really get the feeling we're going to really like him when he finally suits it up for us. I actually came off liking Anthopoulos in that interview too. The Braves definitely have a great guy running their organization.
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Sahadev Sharma
Cubs front office/coaching tidbit: Greg Brown will return as special assistant to the president and GM/hitting (he'll work closely with minor-leaguers) and John Mallee will be a hitting coach at Triple-A Iowa. Brown was Cubs MLB hitting coach last season and Mallee from 2015-2017
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Interesting. Another side of Dansby Swanson.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1605956329280978945
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Cubs sign Barnhart. Catcher is going to be awful in 2023.
The offense is going to be awful is this is all we do.
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They're going to add to the offense. But who and how many?
Drury got $8.5 per over two years. Wil Myers got $7.5 for one year. Carpenter got $6 per over two years. Mancini should be valued less than Drury by the market. Myers seems about right.
Brantley got $12 for 1. Conforto has a higher upside, but he's less of a sure thing. $14-15 AAV on a one plus player option type deal?
What do we think Smyly will get? Lyles got $8.5 per over two years. Smyly is more effective, but Lyles is a better bet for a lot of innings. Will Smyly get two years? Or a tad more of that AAV for just one?
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Two years, $19 million for Smyly with a mutual third year option at $10 million.
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They're going to add to the offense. But who and how many?
Adding Mancini isn't really adding to the offense, it's just adding a body to the roster.
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Two years, $19 million for Smyly with a mutual third year option at $10 million.
A shade more than I had been hoping but not bad.
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It’s $8 million this year and $8.5 million next year with a $2.5 million buyout.
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Adding Mancini isn't really adding to the offense, it's just adding a body to the roster.
This is the same kind of take that I used to have back in the '90s when I played fantasy football and I would either pass up or miss on Craig Heyward because he was good for "only" 4 TD per season. Mancini will help.
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Around $18 left before the first luxury tax threshold. Not including any Madrigal+ offsets.
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We need Conforto.
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"Free agent pitcher Drew Smyly has agreed on a two-year, $19 million deal with the Cubs that includes a $10 million mutual option ($2.5 million buyout) for 2025 according to MLB insider Robert Murray. Smyly gets $8 million in 2023 and $8.5 million in 2024."
Remind me again. Mutual option.
1. *if* hypothetically Smyly was to opt out, then the Cubs would NOT be obligated for the $2.5, correct?
2. For lux-line, is that calculated assuming the Cubs buy him out of year 3? So it's calculate as $19/2, $9.5 for lux line?
Read more: https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/news/breaking-cubs-re-sign-veteran-pitcher-drew-smyly-to-two-year-deal-31233#ixzz7oFYDTfZX
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This is the same kind of take that I used to have back in the '90s when I played fantasy football and I would either pass up or miss on Craig Heyward because he was good for "only" 4 TD per season. Mancini will help.
Somebody has to get those ABs. The question is whether Mancini is any better than one of our AAAA options or a minimum signing. The evidence is he's probably not. Brantley or Turner or Conforto would have helped. Mancini? Just a shot in the dark. May as well sign Hosmer - he has a better OPS against RHP.
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I don't think any of the FA remaining will move the needles much. Any more improvement would come from a trade
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Nice to have Smyly back. Very solid depth guy to have for the rotation.
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"Free agent pitcher Drew Smyly has agreed on a two-year, $19 million deal with the Cubs that includes a $10 million mutual option ($2.5 million buyout) for 2025 according to MLB insider Robert Murray. Smyly gets $8 million in 2023 and $8.5 million in 2024."
Remind me again. Mutual option.
1. *if* hypothetically Smyly was to opt out, then the Cubs would NOT be obligated for the $2.5, correct?
2. For lux-line, is that calculated assuming the Cubs buy him out of year 3? So it's calculate as $19/2, $9.5 for lux line?
Read more: https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/news/breaking-cubs-re-sign-veteran-pitcher-drew-smyly-to-two-year-deal-31233#ixzz7oFYDTfZX
Craig, your 1 and 2 conflict. Cubs are obligated for the $2.5 except in the virtually impossible case that both parties agree to exercise the 2025 $10. 8+8.5+2.5=19/2 years-$9.5 AAV
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I don't think any of the FA remaining will move the needles much. Any more improvement would come from a trade
The one exception to that for me is Conforto. He might bust, but he has the upside to be a genuine middle of the order LH threat. The Cubs are certainly in a position to risk it - so why not risk it? If he busts he's off the books after next season and if he's back to his old self, either he helps you contend (unlikely) or makes an excellent chip for the annual fire sale in the summer.
Perfect example of a guy you overpay for, if necessary. No reason not to.
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The one exception to that for me is Conforto. He might bust, but he has the upside to be a genuine middle of the order LH threat. The Cubs are certainly in a position to risk it - so why not risk it? If he busts he's off the books after next season and if he's back to his old self, either he helps you contend (unlikely) or makes an excellent chip for the annual fire sale in the summer.
Perfect example of a guy you overpay for, if necessary. No reason not to.
I'm all in on a Conforto signing, but I think the most likely scenario is that you have him for 2024 even if he busts. Two year deal with an opt out after year 1.
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Mancini doesn't appeal much.
1. But he was OPS+ of 113, 106, and 134 for his last 3 seasons with Baltimore. (He missed 2020, the big 134 was juiced-ball 2019.).
2. Career OPS+ 113, with .787 OPS and not-awful .330 OBP.
3. At 30 it's not obvious that he's necessarily age-based washed up.
Nothing exciting, obviously. And I'd not assume he'll be able to repeat his Baltimore production. Conforto seems much more appealing, for sure, but I assume his price will reflect that.
But only 3 teams had OPS > .751 last season. So adding a 31-year-old career .787-OPS guy might not necessarily be that awful?
Mancini's name has been mentioned often, and I'd think you could maybe squeeze both Mancini and Fulmer under the lux-line, and call it quits?
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I'm all in on a Conforto signing, but I think the most likely scenario is that you have him for 2024 even if he busts. Two year deal with an opt out after year 1.
Boras flat-out said he wants a one-year deal.
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With Smyly and Barnhart, Cubs will need to clear two 40-man roster spots. Should be plenty interesting.
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Boras flat-out said he wants a one-year deal.
Actually, no.
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Generally speaking, why would any agent want a one year deal instead of a two year deal with an opt-out?
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Generally speaking, why would any agent want a one year deal instead of a two year deal with an opt-out?
Because Conforto is coming off major surgery and trying to rebuild his value. I mean sure, a player option for the second year does you no good as a club, but if you believe he's healthy it's probably not going to be exercised anyway.
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I like Conforto here but not grasping why a guy trying to re-establish his former value would sign somewhere as a primary DH rather than an OFer.
Maybe he thinks he’ll hit better as a DH and/or is not confident about his arm, so DH serves everybody’s interest. But, kinda doubt that.
Also, Mancini and quality reliever probably keeps Cubs under CBT. Conforto and that reliever puts Cubs over the CBT.
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Because Conforto is coming off major surgery and trying to rebuild his value. I mean sure, a player option for the second year does you no good as a club, but if you believe he's healthy it's probably not going to be exercised anyway.
I don't mean to hurt your feelings, but you didn't answer my question. Of course, the answer is that no agent would ever choose 1 over 1+1.
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Craig, your 1 and 2 conflict. Cubs are obligated for the $2.5 except in the virtually impossible case that both parties agree to exercise the 2025 $10. 8+8.5+2.5=19/2 years-$9.5 AAV
Jeff, I still don't follow. Mutual option: I'd imagined that as each party having an option?
1. Default is the 3rd year applying at $10.
2. Smyly has option to say no, I've had two good years and can get better than $10/1 deal. So I'm opting out. Per my apparently incorrect understanding, the Cubs would then have no obligation for the $2.5? So his Cubs pay would be $16.5/2 without the $2.5 being paid.
3. If Smyly did not opt out, the Cubs also have an option to say no, we'd rather pay the $2.5 opt-out than keep you at $10/1. In my mind, that's when we'd get docked for the $2.5, but not if it was Smyly who opted out.
Obviously I'm misunderstanding something? He still gets the $2.5 even if it's his decision to opt out?
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The same guy doesn't have to DH every day. Too many guys who can competently play defense is not a problem, it's a bonus. What the Cubs could offer Conforto is an everyday role as part of an outfield/DH rotation. And in the event Conforto's shoulder limits him defensively, playing as the primary DH still allows him to rebuild some value assuming he can still hit.
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Maybe he thinks he’ll hit better as a DH and/or is not confident about his arm, so DH serves everybody’s interest. But, kinda doubt that.
I don't doubt that at all. With the Cubs, he'd get enough limited time as an outfielder that he could advertise himself as a healthy thrower.
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Also, Mancini and quality reliever probably keeps Cubs under CBT. Conforto and that reliever puts Cubs over the CBT.
Cubs are $18 under right now. Fitting both Conforto and another RP seems feasible.
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I don't mean to hurt your feelings, but you didn't answer my question. Of course, the answer is that no agent would ever choose 1 over 1+1.
If you're going to answer your own obvious questions, why ask them in the first place?
Of course any player option - as I said - does you no good as a club. That's definitional. But assuming Conforto can get that (which I don't think is a given or else he'd likely have signed somewhere already) it really shouldn't be a significant deterrent for the Cubs if they believe Conforto is healthy. If he can hit at all, you'd want to have him for that second year.
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Obviously I'm misunderstanding something? He still gets the $2.5 even if it's his decision to opt out?
Craig, my understanding is that it doesn't matter who kills the mutual option. Smyly still gets the $2.5.
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Jeff, I still don't follow. Mutual option: I'd imagined that as each party having an option?
1. Default is the 3rd year applying at $10.
2. Smyly has option to say no, I've had two good years and can get better than $10/1 deal. So I'm opting out. Per my apparently incorrect understanding, the Cubs would then have no obligation for the $2.5? So his Cubs pay would be $16.5/2 without the $2.5 being paid.
3. If Smyly did not opt out, the Cubs also have an option to say no, we'd rather pay the $2.5 opt-out than keep you at $10/1. In my mind, that's when we'd get docked for the $2.5, but not if it was Smyly who opted out.
Obviously I'm misunderstanding something? He still gets the $2.5 even if it's his decision to opt out?
He gets the $2.5 million no matter if he says no or the Cubs say no. If the option is exercised the Cubs get a credit on the $1.25 million against the CBT in 2022 and 2023 if they go over the tax threshold.
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If you're going to answer your own obvious questions, why ask them in the first place?
Of course any player option - as I said - does you no good as a club. That's definitional. But assuming Conforto can get that (which I don't think is a given or else he'd likely have signed somewhere already) it really shouldn't be a significant deterrent for the Cubs if they believe Conforto is healthy. If he can hit at all, you'd want to have him for that second year.
Deeg, I'm not suggesting it's a deterrent. I'd take him anyway. I think it's just going to be a requirement.
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reb, you express the same thoughts I've had. Conforto puts Cubs over lux line, Mancini doesn't. And if healthy, Conforto would be nuts to choose a DH role over playing outfield.
Conforto isn't going to happen.
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Because Conforto is coming off major surgery and trying to rebuild his value. I mean sure, a player option for the second year does you no good as a club, but if you believe he's healthy it's probably not going to be exercised anyway.
Conforto wants the opt out. If he busts he gets guaranteed money, if he excels he opts out and doesn’t have to deal with QO. Boras does this a lot with his pilliow contracts.
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Deeg, I'm not suggesting it's a deterrent. I'd take him anyway. I think it's just going to be a requirement.
Roger, I get you. I agree it shouldn't be a deterrent. But who knows if it would be.
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Craig, my understanding is that it doesn't matter who kills the mutual option. Smyly still gets the $2.5.
The player and the club can write the contract any way they want (so long as doesn’t violate cba). So, they write that (a) club can exercise option, (b) player can opt and get the $2.5, and c) club’s exercise of option effective only if player assents. It’s their contract.
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I suppose CBT and Conforto could turn on what reliever we’re talking about.
If adding another guy under $3MM like Boxberger, then it might work.
But, thinking a guy like Fullmer might be in that 8-9 range.
Maybe Cubs say, fine if we can get Conforto, then we’ll settle for another cheaper reliever. If can’t get Conforto, spend more on the reliever.
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No chance the Cubs spend 8-9 on a reliever. Outside of Kimbrel, when is the last time the Cubs did that?
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"intelligent spending" may also just hinge on the player value? If Conforto and Fulmer want to sign on good contracts, maybe Hoyer says who cares about lux line?
But *IF* lux line is something Hoyer has decided he doesn't want to cross (for 2026 reasons), then I wonder how close against it he wants to go? Theo liked to hold a little back, because *IF* the season goes well, he might want to plug a hole in July, and would like to have $2-5M free to do that.
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"intelligent spending" may also just hinge on the player value? If Conforto and Fulmer want to sign on good contracts, maybe Hoyer says who cares about lux line?
But *IF* lux line is something Hoyer has decided he doesn't want to cross (for 2026 reasons), then I wonder how close against it he wants to go? Theo liked to hold a little back, because *IF* the season goes well, he might want to plug a hole in July, and would like to have $2-5M free to do that.
It depends on whether Hoyer wants to make any pretense at actually competing this season or not. If he does he needs at least one more legit hitter, preferable lefty or switch. If that ends up taking you over the tax line, so be it - the roster as currently constructed isn't even in the mix without such an addition. If not, just sign Mancini and another McReliever and hope they do well enough to flip for a B prospect.
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Strong preference for Hosmer over Manchini, give him 2 years with a 3rd year mutual option. Padres' pick up most of the tab.
Use the rest of the cash for Conforto on a one year prove me deal if you can get it done. Stays below CBT and gets a few more pieces to move if things work out right.
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Considering a Madrigal reduction and other miscellaneous arithmetic, there's probably around $20 left under the first luxury tax threshold. That should be enough for Conforto and whatever veteran additions they want to make to the bullpen.
Absolute worst case scenario would seem to be Mancini, Hosmer, and bullpen adds.
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Mancini has sn’t anything special, but he is significantly better than even league minimum Hosmer.
Unless Bellinger breaks out, even with Conforto this is going to be a bad offensive team. I think I agree with Reb that Conforto is going to look for a team that guarantees a starting job in the OF and not a primarily DH spot.
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Method, I don’t understand Hosmer > Mancini at all. Why do you feel that way?
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Trevor Bauer sure would look good in our rotation.
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Trevor Bauer sure would look good in our rotation.
Try not to be ignorant.
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Try not to be ignorant.
I won’t pretend to have researched the matter in depth but didn’t a prosecutor opt against charging Bauer with a criminal case? Didn’t the woman state that she asked for rough sex (but her perception is that Bauer went overboard). Didn’t the woman go back a 2nd time in spite of believing Bauer went overboard the first time?
It’s not my thing and I really don’t understand it but while Bauer is considered a weird guy I never understood the record breaking suspension unless I missed something (which is completely possible). Players charged with Domestic Violence don’t face half of the suspension that Bauer faced.
Not that this should be the bar, but aren’t there players who have done far worse (like Aroldis Chapman among others) who are still playing?
I’m not advocating for the Cubs to sign him as I would imagine MLB has more information than me.
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No chance the Cubs spend 8-9 on a reliever. Outside of Kimbrel, when is the last time the Cubs did that?
I'm thinking that might be the cost of Fulmer Maybe I'm wrong about that. What do you think Fulmer is going to get on the market?
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The Rangers, Cubs,and Giants are among teams showing interest in Michael Conforto.--Heyman
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I won’t pretend to have researched the matter in depth but didn’t a prosecutor opt against charging Bauer with a criminal case? Didn’t the woman state that she asked for rough sex (but her perception is that Bauer went overboard). Didn’t the woman go back a 2nd time in spite of believing Bauer went overboard the first time?
It’s not my thing and I really don’t understand it but while Bauer is considered a weird guy I never understood the record breaking suspension unless I missed something (which is completely possible). Players charged with Domestic Violence don’t face half of the suspension that Bauer faced.
Not that this should be the bar, but aren’t there players who have done far worse (like Aroldis Chapman among others) who are still playing?
I’m not advocating for the Cubs to sign him as I would imagine MLB has more information than me.
I believe 2 other women came forward saying Bauer did something similar to them. Bauer also lost a pre-trial defamation lawsuit motion against the accuser’s attorney. I think the Cubs are best to stay away from the PR nightmare that Bauer would be before you throw in the question of just how good is he without sticky stuff.
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The Rangers, Cubs,and Giants are among teams showing interest in Michael Conforto.--Heyman
From the same article/bullet points on the NY Post website:
Coincidental that Hendricks (Kyle) and Hendriks (Liam) are available Chicagoans. …
Would any other team take a shot on Hendricks?
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Try not to be ignorant.
Good luck with that.
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Method, I don’t understand Hosmer > Mancini at all. Why do you feel that way?
I don't know that it's a clear-cut matter who's likely to perform better. Hosmer has been better career vs. righties, they both sucked last season. Neither offers any positive defensive value. Depends on whether you think Hosmer is washed I guess, as he is three years older.
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I believe 2 other women came forward saying Bauer did something similar to them. Bauer also lost a pre-trial defamation lawsuit motion against the accuser’s attorney. I think the Cubs are best to stay away from the PR nightmare that Bauer would be before you throw in the question of just how good is he without sticky stuff.
I wasn’t aware of the other 2 women. I agree. No interest in the Cubs signing him.
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From the same article/bullet points on the NY Post website:
Coincidental that Hendricks (Kyle) and Hendriks (Liam) are available Chicagoans. …
Would any other team take a shot on Hendricks?
I’d think he’d have to prove health in spring training, but if he’s healthy do you want to trade him?
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/giants-michael-conforto-agree-to-two-year-deal.html
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No surprise, but bummer nonetheless.
Calling Trey Mancini?
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Mancini and Dom Smith both?
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Mancini and Dom Smith both?
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
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You are Jed Hoyer and approaching the trade line
1) Happ and Stroman are not signed to extensions and Bellinger is ok, but not MVP Bellinger
2) you ar or above .500. 5-6 games behind the Cardinals and well behind both Wild Card slots
Do you sell, buy or stand pat at the deadline?
Me, I sell.
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There had been some discussion/questions here about what it was, exactly, that certain catchers who are valued for their defensive ability (their "soft" skills) provide that others (presumably including Contreras) do not. Sharma provides some insight into this in a new column on DansbySwanson's impact on the Cubs.
"This doesn’t mean merely looking for great framers or someone who can control the running game. There are aspects of catching that certain teams value that can’t be measured by statistics. Gomes and Barnhart won’t blow anyone away with their offensive statistics, but they’re examples of what the Cubs want in a catcher (especially since Christian Vázquez (https://theathletic.com/mlb/player/christian-vazquez-wasJTRun5QZZcbGV/) chose the Twins (https://theathletic.com/mlb/team/twins/) on a three-year, $30 million deal). Like Gomes, Barnhart is highly regarded by pitchers. There’s a deep respect for the amount of time these catchers spend on game planning and the way they see the game from behind the plate. They can tell when certain hitters may be cheating on a certain pitch or how their swing is playing that day, which may mean a quick in-game adjustment to the plan. These are intangible qualities that don’t show up in the box score, but teams believe save them runs."
https://theathletic.com/4030533/2022/12/23/dansby-swanson-cubs-impact/
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The #Cubs have claimed LHP Anthony Kay off waivers from Toronto.
1B Alfonso Rivas has been designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.
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I actually prefer Hosmer for first. Experience, has been on winners, rep as a leader and good teammate. It might be interesting to know how they plan to use Bellinger. Any centerfielders left? Trade for Reynolds?
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I actually prefer Hosmer for first. Experience, has been on winners, rep as a leader and good teammate. It might be interesting to know how they plan to use Bellinger. Any centerfielders left? Trade for Reynolds?
It's no pulse-quickener but Hosmer actually makes sense at this point, considering the pool of remaining hitters is now a mud puddle. Career. .810 OPS against righties, not great the last two seasons but not horrifically bad, another 1B-DH option with a good clubhouse rep.
I doubt very much the Pirates would trade Reynolds to the Cubs, and if they did they'd expect a star return for a guy who's not a star, just a very nice player.
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Source: Free-agent pitcher Nick Neidert is signing a minor-league deal with the Chicago Cubs. Neidert, 26, was recently non-tendered by the Marlins. The deal includes opt outs on June 1 and July 1.
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Hosmer had the way too many ground balls and has been resistant to coaching that he shouldn’t do that. Mancini is a clubhouse guy and has a better shot at being average on offense.
Kay might be interesting if they can sneak him through waivers. He has a cut/ride fastball with decent velocity, get him a sweeper slider and he might work pretty well out of the pen if he’s healthy.
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Every left hand hitter is going to benefit from the ban on the shift
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With Conforto off the market, I don't think there's a free agent hitter left who has a chance to really helps the Cubs. Maybe Jean Segura adds a win or two if he has the arm for third base. Maybe Dominic Smith could pay off if they sign him to a no-risk split contract that pays him something like $2-$3 million if he makes the team.
But if the Cubs really want to improve their hitting for 2023, they need to make an unexpected trade.
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The Cubs and Mancini have seemed to be mentioned repeatedly. As usual we can think its dumb, but it would seem they've thought he had some interest. Career OPS .787, career OPS+ 113. I'd envision that's at a different level from Dom Smith.
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With Conforto off the market, I don't think there's a free agent hitter left who has a chance to really helps the Cubs. Maybe Jean Segura adds a win or two if he has the arm for third base. Maybe Dominic Smith could pay off if they sign him to a no-risk split contract that pays him something like $2-$3 million if he makes the team.
But if the Cubs really want to improve their hitting for 2023, they need to make an unexpected trade.
Smith is an absolute no from me. Segura would actually be a nice addition but he's probably too rich for our blood.
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The #Cubs have claimed LHP Anthony Kay off waivers from Toronto.
Former supplemental 1st Round pick for the Mets in 2016 and was once part of the Mets' trade for Marcus Stroman.
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https://theathletic.com/4030533/2022/12/23/dansby-swanson-cubs-impact/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Interesting. Cubs bringing back two of their former big-league hitting coaches as minor-league hitting coaches.
"The Cubs are retaining and reassigning Greg Brown, who lasted one season as the lead hitting coach at the major-league level. Brown will focus on hitting at the minor-league levels as a special assistant to the president and GM. The Cubs are also bringing back John Mallee — the lead hitting coach for the 2016 World Series team — as a hitting coach for Triple-A Iowa."
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/cubs-drew-smyly-agree-to-two-year-deal.html
Cubs announce Smyly, DFA Uelmen.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/cubs-drew-smyly-agree-to-two-year-deal.html
Cubs announce Smyly, DFA Uelmen.
Best wishes to Uelmen, I'd not be surprised to see him back.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/cubs-drew-smyly-agree-to-two-year-deal.html
Cubs announce Smyly....
This claims Smyly has an opt-out after this season. I don't think that's been reported previously? Very interesting.
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All that said, because of the arm talent, I would not be surprised to see Uelmen claimed on waivers. He was outstanding at Triple-A after being converted, full-time to relief. He can get a ton of groundballs, and again, the pitch characteristics may intrigue some other org. If he isn’t claimed, however, the Cubs can outright him to Triple-A Iowa, and keep him for at least the 2023 season.
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I would have let McKinstry go. Either the Cubs think that Uelman is easily replaceable, they think they can get him through waivers, or they see a lot more in McKinstry than I do.
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Dave, I'd kinda guess McKinstry will go when they hypothetically sign Mancini.
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And they will.
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Think that a Madrigal move more likely than a McKinstry move.
Roster now at 40 and a move has to be made for Barnhart when MLB offices open in a week or so.
In addition, there are perhaps two more potential 40-man additions??: (1) Mancini and (2) a higher end reliever.
Guessing those three moves are that (1) Cubs try to “sneak” Kay thru waivers, (2) Madrigal traded or waived, (3) Rucker waived.
Any additional 40-man additions beyond the above would threaten McKinstry.
I would sign Dom Smith to a split contract. There is zero risk doing that. Smith had a 150 wRC+ in 400 PAs in 2019/20, so has hit at major league level for a time—along with about 1,000 poor other PAs. Too bad he could not play end of last season because of injury for a trial, but would look at him in spring training. Would rather have Smith in 1B/DH mix with Mancini/Mervis than another stab with Rivas if he gets thru waivers.
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I've got to imagine that McKinstry will go before Rucker. Options remaining trumps out of options.
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Jeff, I get that point of view but it depends. For example, My hunch is that Cubs really liked what they saw of no-options Leiter Jr. late last season and would keep him ahead of Rucker.
As to McKinstry, I see a role for both McKinstry and Mastrobuoni as bench guys. Five bench guys: Barnhart; McKinstry and Mervis at IF (assuming Wisdom/Mancini starting); Morel and Mastrobuoni at OF. The OF bench guys can play IF too (great) and McKinstry can play OF too (great). Velazquez is really only guy who might take one of these spots, but has options and probably can use more AAA time anyway.
In other words, see a role for McKinstry here.
Think Rucker competing more with other pitchers. Just won out over Uelman. Assuming a significant reliever signing, guessing he’s odd man out.
But, granted, who knows what Cubs really are thinking on any of these guys.
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Mets may back out of the Correa deal. Should we offer one year minimum salary with 40 million in incentives?
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He'll be a Met.
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Barnhart, Barnhart, Barnhart...why is that name familiar to me?
From Best Bloopers of 2022
when the Tigers took on the Twins on April 26, they finished the contest with a true comedy of errors. Shakespeare couldn't even guess at this madness when he used that title to name his play. Minnesota was trailing, 4-3, in the bottom of the ninth when Miguel Sano stepped to the plate with Gio Urshela and Trevor Larnach on base with one out. Sano hit a hard liner to right field, but the ball bounced off outfielder Robbie Grossman's glove. That's error No. 1.
After the ball got away, Sano took off for second, which forced Urshela and Larnach to run, too. It looked like the Twins were about to run themselves into an out. Instead, Detroit catcher Tucker Barnhart tried to get a rundown going, but instead airmailed the throw into left field. The toss allowed the two baserunners to race around and score the winning run to end the game.
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He always hits like Mike Piazza against me on The Show.
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Barnhart, Barnhart, Barnhart...why is that name familiar to me?
From Best Bloopers of 2022
when the Tigers took on the Twins on April 26, they finished the contest with a true comedy of errors. Shakespeare couldn't even guess at this madness when he used that title to name his play. Minnesota was trailing, 4-3, in the bottom of the ninth when Miguel Sano stepped to the plate with Gio Urshela and Trevor Larnach on base with one out. Sano hit a hard liner to right field, but the ball bounced off outfielder Robbie Grossman's glove. That's error No. 1.
After the ball got away, Sano took off for second, which forced Urshela and Larnach to run, too. It looked like the Twins were about to run themselves into an out. Instead, Detroit catcher Tucker Barnhart tried to get a rundown going, but instead airmailed the throw into left field. The toss allowed the two baserunners to race around and score the winning run to end the game.
https://www.mlb.com/video/gregory-soto-in-play-run-s-to-miguel-sano
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I read something where Levine said the Cubs preferred Hosmer and Dom Smith to Mancini.
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Hmmmm...
https://www.cubshq.com/cubs-baseball/story/should-cubs-inquire-about-trevor-bauer-20131
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No!
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Trevor Bauer should never pitch another game in MLB.
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Maybe there's some women with black belts we could set him up with! "Psst, Trevor, this one likes it rough."
I agree with Ron and br.
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Have a hard time seeing how any organization would be willing to bring him in.
PR hit would be overwhelming. Just not worth it.
Doubt that the “moral” implications would deter an organization if it thought a signing was tenable. If helped winning——and could get away with it as to fan base generally——clubs would sign anybody.
But, here, blowback too much.
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You all are the type who wouldn't have wanted Ty Cobb either.
And there's this...
On August 20, the temporary restraining order against Bauer was removed after a judge determined that Bauer did not pose a threat to the woman's immediate safety.[123] MLB extended his leave for the remainder of the season while they and the Pasadena Police Department finished their investigation into Bauer.[124] On February 8, 2022, the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office announced that they would not be filing any criminal charges against Bauer related to these incidents citing a lack of evidence.[125] In March 2022, Bauer filed defamation lawsuits against Deadspin, The Athletic, and a former reporter for The Athletic, Molly Knight.[126][127] The following month, he filed a defamation suit against the woman who had accused him of assault and one of her attorneys.[128][129] On September 13, 2022, Bauer, through his attorney as part of a motion to dismiss his accusers' lawsuit, released a video recorded by his accuser the morning after the alleged assault took place. Bauer's attorney claims the video proves his innocence showing his accuser "willingly in bed with a sleeping Mr. Bauer, and is smirking and uninjured".
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Dusty, Trevor and his lawyers are going to go all out on a PR campaign to make Trevor the victim in all this. Why? Cuz the lawyers are SOL if Trevor can no longer pitch.
So will his agent. They'll work overtime to try and shine a different light on all this. My guess is that they'll get close and then Trevor, like Trump, will stick his foot in his big mouth again.
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https://theathletic.com/2682479/2021/06/30/graphic-details-photos-emerge-in-restraining-order-filed-against-dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauer/?source=emp_shared_article
I have no clue what happened between the two of them, but the PR for any team that signs Bauer is going to be a nightmare. There are also 2 other women that have come forward and said Bauer did similar things to them. Keep him far away from the team. That's before you get into he was only really good when he was using sticky stuff that is now banned.
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Although the Cubs did give Addison Russell a second chance, I can't see that happening with Trevor Bauer.
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Im not saying give LA anything of value for him.
Just take him if you get him for a wad of used bubble gum.
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Im beginning to believe we'll end up with Hosmer.
Still seeing some Fulmer smoke too.
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I do not understand why there is any interest in Eric Hosmer. Other than short season 2020, the last time he had an OPS above .735 was 2017, and last year it was .716, with only 8 HR in 419 PA. I gather from others' comments that he also would not bring particularly good defense at 1B. And, like Mervis, he is a LH bat. I know Mervis COULD do worse than that, but I'd be very surprised if he did.
Can anyone explain why he is even being discussed as a viable option?
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I believe the Cubs intend to build the roster so that Mervis doesn't HAVE TO make the team. They may not have payroll space to add both a salaried 1B and a salaried DH. Hosmer being a minimum wage guy would help in that regard.
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Cubs 1B in 2022 had a 86 wRC+
Hosmer was 104 wRC+
So, even Hosmer probably would be an offensive upgrade.
And Padres would be covering almost all his salary.
Between 1B and DH, lots of ABs to go around. If Mervis is good, he’ll get his ABs.
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Somebody has to bat ninth.
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Hosmer is going to be dirt cheap and should keep the spot warm till Mervis is ready.
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Hosmer had like an amazing 70 PA to start the season with a .400+ BABIP and then he was Frank Schwindel bad for the rest of season. If they sign Hosmer this offense is going to be so very bad.
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Hosmer had like an amazing 70 PA to start the season with a .400+ BABIP and then he was Frank Schwindel bad for the rest of season. If they sign Hosmer this offense is going to be so very bad.
LOL So if they sign someone else it will be great?
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Cubs 1B in 2022 had a 86 wRC+
Hosmer was 104 wRC+
So, even Hosmer probably would be an offensive upgrade.
And Padres would be covering almost all his salary.
Between 1B and DH, lots of ABs to go around. If Mervis is good, he’ll get his ABs.
Hard to imagine Hosmer is the best option, even now.
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I agree, Ron, I would prefer they put Bellinger at 1B. A CF may not see a ball the whole game. A 1B that can secure throws will see many. I think we may have candidates for CF out there or on roster now..
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Dexter Fowler is still available!
Others of interest: Adam Engel, Delino DeShields
Highest ranking centerfielder unsigned: LOL Rafael Ortega.
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Hard to imagine Hosmer is the best option, even now.
Hosmer is not the best option.
Best option, absent a trade, is Mancini—and Dom Smith on a split contract.
CBJ thinks that Hosmer might be amazing for a month of the season but I look at Hosmer as a no-commitment, minimum salary guy, so why not as a fallback option.
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How about bringing the Giants boys in - Longoria and Belt?
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Of those three, Dominic Smith on a split contract is my preference. He probably won't be very good, but he's 27 and was great in about 400 PA in 2019-20. There is some upside with him that you're not getting with Hosmer or Mancini, even though you're giving up some certainty. The Cubs should be chasing upside at this point.
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LOL So if they sign someone else it will be great?
No, just less awful
CBJ thinks that Hosmer might be amazing for a month of the season but I look at Hosmer as a no-commitment, minimum salary guy, so why not as a fallback option.
More accurately I think Hosmer had 1 month of BABIP luck that made his season long stats look less horrible. I'd rather take a shot on Dominic Smith finding his luck from previous season for only slightly more than minimum salary than put Hosmer on the team. Hosmer is a worse version of Heyward.
How about bringing the Giants boys in - Longoria and Belt?
Possible trade chips at the deadline, sure why not.
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Dexter Fowler is still available!
Others of interest: Adam Engel, Delino DeShields
Highest ranking centerfielder unsigned: LOL Rafael Ortega.
Don't laugh too hard. I would much rather have Ortega hitting a right hander than Hosmer
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How about bringing the Giants boys in - Longoria and Belt?
In 1953, Cubs traded six players and a lot of cash to bring in an aging Ralph Kiner and Howie Pollet from the Pirates. Kiner had a good offensive season, although he couldn't catch much in the OF. Pollet was a very fine pitcher for much of his career.
Yeah, so why not bring in late-career guys if maybe they can still play a little bit.
Too bad that Cubs couldn't get Abreu to come here and play 1B.
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Barnhart official, Higgins DFA.
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I agree, Ron, I would prefer they put Bellinger at 1B. A CF may not see a ball the whole game. A 1B that can secure throws will see many. I think we may have candidates for CF out there or on roster now..
Who?
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Morel?
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Barnhart official, Higgins DFA.
Higgins had not been my guess. But I think he might pretty easily clear and go to Iowa and be on emergency reserve anyway, yes? McKinstry survives another move.
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Higgins had not been my guess. But I think he might pretty easily clear and go to Iowa and be on emergency reserve anyway, yes? McKinstry survives another move.
Maybe, Craig. But Higgins has been outrighted before, so, if he chooses, he can become a free agent even if no one clears him off waivers.
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How about bringing the Giants boys in - Longoria and Belt?
Not sure what Longoria has left. But he might still be a much better hitter than Wisdom, if he can still play 3rd?
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I don’t see any reason to consider Longoria. Another 3B who should be the RH half of a platoon if he plays at all, and no better than adequate defensively at this point with no positional versatility.
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Deeg, are you pretty comfortable with Wisdom as the primary RH 3B? For me Wisdom is the guy I'm most interested in having an alternative for.
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Longoria has had a terrific near-60 WAR career but he’s pretty similar now to Wisdom.
Would make no sense to have both of them on active roster. Wisdom being pre-arb and Longoria costing significantly more—that’s a big practical difference as Cubs approach CBT payroll.
Now that the pitchers around the league know Wisdom, really hard to see him improving at all.
And, sometimes, when you have a guy with Longoria’s pedigree, you might see one last hurrah of production unexpectedly. So, think chances of one of them having a really nice season would be Longoria, albeit unlikely. So, would not rule him out if Cubs prepared to cut bait with Wisdom. Don’t see that happening.
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Along those lines, I’d take an ‘83 Ron Cey season…
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Deeg, are you pretty comfortable with Wisdom as the primary RH 3B? For me Wisdom is the guy I'm most interested in having an alternative for.
I would much rather have a good everyday 3B than Wisdom. But Wisdom is probably adequate as the RH half of a platoon. So I guess the answer is “no”, since the LF guy would be the primary 3B in an acceptable scenario. But it makes no sense to have Wisdom and Longoria - at this point a pretty similar player with less HRs and fewer Ks - on the same roster.
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Wisdom can also play 1B/DH and without digging into it is possible that Longoria and Wisdom do well against different types of pitchers.
Joey Wendle could be another option with the Marlins planning to play Segura at third.
Grisham is available from the Padres for Curt’s CF, but I’m not sure how the Cubs match up in a trade.
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3B is one of those spots that could be a black hole. Hawkins/Hoyer (HH) shouldn't be expecting anything good, and if it ends being a tank/lottery season, 3B could be one of the reasons. But HH must be hoping for variably anti-awful there.
Current options would seem to include Wisdom, Morel, McKinstry, Mastrobuoni, David Bote. Heh heh, the buildican me would love to see one of the newer, younger Morel/Maestro guys step up as anti-awful. McKinstry looked kinda overmatched to me, but not impossible that he might blossom into mediocre. Morel I think has the highest ceiling defensively.
In the hypothetically possible if unlikely event that the team is winning, despite 3B being a severe liability, this could be a place where a summer trade could hypothetically be targeted? Just because it looks bad now, and may be bad in April, doesn't necessarily mean it will have the same bad personnel in September.
One other very remote and unlikely hypothetical option would be indirectly running a Madrigal/Maestro platoon, with Hoerner playing 3B if Madrigal starts.
*IF* HH's hypothetical hopes for a win-now season was happening
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...Guessing those three moves are that (1) Cubs try to “sneak” Kay thru waivers, (2) Madrigal traded or waived, (3) Rucker waived...
In past discussiong, both reb and Jeff have mentioned dropping Madrigal. I'm thinking Hoyer won't be ready to do that this soon?
1. Given his season and the limits to his game, I don't imagine trading would return much value or upside.
2. As Jeff has noted, options matter. Madrigal has a couple left.
3. Cutting Madrigal would only save $1M. Now that Conforto is gone, and when we're talking about scrubs like Hosmer or Dom Smith, we're not pressing the lux line. Cutting Madrigal to enable Conforto would have been one thing; but no financial need now.
4. Wisely or not, Hoyer and some scouts liked Madrigal enough to trade Kimbrel for him. I'm guessing they may still believe potential is still there.
5. Hoyer believes in his developmental infrastructure. So including strength-and-conditioning improvements among other adjustments, I suspect they believe Madrigal future might be more than Madrigal 2022 was.
6. Part of that was physical. I'm not sure he was close to 100% for much of the season.
7. Madrigal's OPS's have been .745, .776, and .588. Slugging .369, .425, and .282. One of those years is not like the others. I get it, there were already underlying hints that the Sox seasons were unsustainable/fluky, and OF defenses shallow up better now. Still, 2022 seems so out-of-line, that I expect Hoyer will figure the Cubs and regression-to-the-mean could get him back variably nearer to what he was with the Sox.
8. He was .376 and .349 OBP for the Sox, without taking many walks. I expect Hoyer saw indications that Madrigal was adapting and taking more pitches late this year, and in future might augment his OBP with more walks. Given the Cubs are OBP-challenged, *IF* Madrigal can bounce back as a .340-OBP guy, a big-league bench might like that.
9. I typecast DH as power hitter. But *IF* Madrigal developes into a .280-hitter with .350-OBP and .740-OPS, Hoyer may figure that Ross might DH him a fair bit?
10. I typecast bench as multi-position utility. But Hoyer may figure that since Hoerner can play anywhere, that *IF* Madrigal's offense rebounds to Sox-ish level, that Madrigal will have value even without positional flexibility.
11. Hoyer may anticipate the shift rule helping Madrigal a bit? With infielders starting on the dirt, the space between infielders and outfielders is a bit larger?
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Wisdom is very good against LH pitching (.892 OPS in 2022, and .821 in 2021). And while he was bad against RH pitching last year (.665), that was not the case in 2021 (.823 OPS. Did RH pitchers figure him out in 2022? Can he make adjustments at this point?
Morel was better against RH pitchers than LH last year (.782 OPS vs .627). Maybe a Wisdom/Morel platoon?
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Morel will be a factor this year.
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While I expect Hosmer Twitter seems to be a believer that Mancini's better than his numbers show.
Dom Smith shouldn't be anything more than a minor league deal.
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And if Longoria can stay healthy at 37 looking at his numbers it doesnt look unrealistic to expect .250-.260 with 20+ HRs.
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From Heyman at 10:30 pm...
While the hometown Marlins make some sense for Eric Hosmer, he’s on the radar of the Cubs and Orioles.
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Regarding Hosmer and his minimum AAV for CBT purposes, AZ Phil posits the possibility that there could be enough competition for his services that Hosmer could get some kind of signing bonus—— and that would count additionally to his AAV.
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Worth noting how wide open DH is for Cubs right now.
Last season, Reyes, Contreras, Schwindel, Ortega, Frazier combined for 133 starts at DH. They’re all gone.
Happ and Gomes had 9 DH starts each.
Presumably, this season, maybe Bellinger and Swanson get a tiny # of DH starts?
And, assuming that Cubs bring in a 1B at some point, Mervis figures to get DH opportunities.
But, right now, DH can be looked at as either an opportunity to give ABs to a still-unidentified veteran bat(s) or looked at as a black hole.
With 1B and DH still open, we’re talking about 1,200 PAs sitting there.
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With nico at 2b, madrigal will get dh reps.
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Morel will be a factor this year.
The volume of AB's that go to depth players will be massive. We're the Cubs, and our prospects and development system for hitters is traditionally rotten.
But man, would it be nice if some young bench guys emerged as perfectly average, respectable players, maybe even kinda good?
*Morel, Velasquez, wouldn't it be great if by July, we looked at either or both and saw that they totally belonged in the major leagues, and we were happy for them to get some AB's?
*What if Madrigal bounced back as the White Sox version, or maybe even better?
*What if Brennen is healthy and really good at Iowa, and by summer we're happy to have him hit for us?
*What if Miles Mastrobuoni is just a good professional hitter, who belongs in the major leagues and is a perfectly acceptable platoon guy?
*What if Darius Hill is just a good professional hitter, and if they need to fill some OF AB's he's just fine?
*What if Strumpf broke out, and suddenly he's hitting .280 in high-minors with power and walks, and looks like a possible 3B option?
Sure won't be all of them, but would be fun if several of these "wouldn't-it-be-nice" guys turned out favorably, and were productive in the AB's they get.
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Cross Longoria off the list, he's going to the Diamondbacks.
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With nico at 2b, madrigal will get dh reps.
Madrigal is not going to be the DH.
Average team got 25 HRs from DH in 2022.
Madrigal has 2 career homers in 552 PAs. That's not what the DH is for.
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The DH is for getting the best hitter on your roster who’s not using a glove that day into the batting order. How many HRs they hit is only one measure of that. You wouldn’t sit prime Rod Carew or Wade Boggs if they couldn’t play defense - that’s completely illogical.
None of that helps in Madrigal’s case, unfortunately.
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Boggs and Carew rarely DHed——less than 5% of their PAs.
The guys who can’t play defense and, therefore DH, invariably are power guys. It’s a power lineup spot for clubs, with rare exceptions. Nobody plans for DH to be a non-power spot. Occasionally, it turns out that way because It’s Baseball!——things can take a peculiar turn from time to time.
If Madrigal is Cubs best DH choice in 2023, we’re in big trouble. Not going to happen.
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reb, point well taken. Couple thoughts:
1. The Cubs may be or end in "rare exception" land.
2. But in terms of anticipating team decision-making, obviously Hoyer and Hawkins aren't planning Madrigal-Mastrobuoni as primary DH's.
3. They're going to chase some power.
4. Chasing may not mean getting. Dom Smith hit 0 and 11 HR the past two seasons, career high only 11. Hosmer hasn't exceeded 12 this decade, and needed 671 PA to reach his 25-HR max in Kansas City ages ago. You can add Hosmer/Smith fringe guys, but get kinda Reyes/Frazier production. Morel and Velasquez might hit more HR's than the outside junkers that they add.
5. Assuming HR's are the priority, I still see Mancini as a person of possible Hoyer interest. Over his last four seasons played, he's hit 18-21-35-24-24 HR's. Got a reasonable chance to give an anti-awful .250/.320/.440/20HR type season, and HH still have cash.
6. *IF* Madrigal was improbably but hypothetically possibly back to a .350-OBP .750-OPS guy, he might end up getting some DH starts. It's baseball, and he might end up as high or higher OPS-wise than the options, with a more hits/OBP orientation. Which Ross might sometimes like to balance the HR/K-oriented lineup.
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With there being a roster crunch, it seems hard to imagine Madrigal occupying a slot when the season begins. Can only play 2B (with Morel and maybe Bote being backups), zero power, and without having returned to even being a consistent get-on-base guy. Can they stash him in the minors to try to build up some trade potential later?
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Sharma has predictions for 2023. Among them, Happ leaves and ... his most aggressive prediction:
"But the bet here is that Boston fails to extend Rafael Devers and Hoyer identifies him as the missing piece to an emerging team. Obviously the preference for Hoyer would be to just pay for Devers in free agency, but if he becomes available at the deadline, he has to consider being aggressive there as well. Devers would be the middle-of-the-order bat this team so desperately needs and plays third base, an obvious area of need. Will his defense hold up over whatever the lifetime of his contract will be? Who cares! The kid can rake. He’ll be 27 and seems to be hitting his stride offensively as an impact bat."
https://theathletic.com/4041616/2022/12/30/cubs-2023-predictions-ian-happ/
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Madrigal has options. So, yes, could be optioned to Iowa.
Can elect free agency if outrighted.
With Higgins off the 40-man, guessing that Madrigal’s chances of sticking on the 40-man has improved somewhat.
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Things might be heating up with Hosmer.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Eric Hosmer in talks with Cubs. Looks promising but no deal done yet.
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I have not seen any recent discussion about Jake Slaughter. He seemed to blossom last year, with a .922 OPS and 20 HR in 386 PA in AA. No idea what his defense is like at 3B (or 1B), but is there any chance he could be a factor in Chicago within the next two seasons?
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I have not seen any recent discussion about Jake Slaughter. He seemed to blossom last year, with a .922 OPS and 20 HR in 386 PA in AA. No idea what his defense is like at 3B (or 1B), but is there any chance he could be a factor in Chicago within the next two seasons?
Anything is possible, but I get the impression that he doesn't scout well. When I see guys like Slaughter and Peraza, I recall Robin Jennings from the '90s. With the Cubs running out lots of (relative) bums for their outfield, I was desperate for them to give Jennings a real shot. They never really did. My takeaway was that sometimes scouting perceptions dominate. Scouting suggests that certain guys can perform in the minors, but have limitations that will keep them from doing the same in the big leagues. I don't know if that is right, but I believe it's a real thing amongst front offices.
Part of me thinks it's not right. That Dave23's oft-stated line is true - confidence and opportunity can make for a viable big league player. The Cardinals' success in bringing up any seeming ham-n-egger makes me wonder.
I wouldn't expect to see Slaughter in a Cubs uniform any time soon.
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Thanks, Jeff.
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Things might be heating up with Hosmer.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Eric Hosmer in talks with Cubs. Looks promising but no deal done yet.
Jed: We hit too many balls on the ground.
Jed: Let’s sign Hosmer
Me: Taylor Swift Anti-Hero plays in the background
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Heyman says Hosmer to the Cubs is close.
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To the extent that Hosmer limits the opportunity Mervis gets, I really, really dislike this. Maybe Mervis will be a bust, but he deserves a serious opportunity to show what he can do over a reasonable period of time.
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To the extent that Hosmer limits the opportunity Mervis gets, I really, really dislike this. Maybe Mervis will be a bust, but he deserves a serious opportunity to show what he can do over a reasonable period of time.
Given how bereft the Cubs are of lefty bats, I don't see that necessarily. I mean, theoretically I think right now Hosmer and Mervis would be the regular starters at 1B/DH against RHP (though the Cubs may start Mervis out at Iowa). And if Hosmer really sucks there's no real disincentive to just releasing him.
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Given how bereft the Cubs are of lefty bats, I don't see that necessarily. I mean, theoretically I think right now Hosmer and Mervis would be the regular starters at 1B/DH against RHP (though the Cubs may start Mervis out at Iowa). And if Hosmer really sucks there's no real disincentive to just releasing him.
That depends on the contract they give him. You would think it would be a 1-2 year deal for nominal money but we have been surprised before.
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Money paid to Hosmer just decreases the amount of money the Padres owe him, unless Hoyer does something really stupid.
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My understanding is that the only stupid thing they can do is give him a signing bonus.
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Seriously, are the Cubs bidding against anyone else for his services? We are at a point that most unsigned guys should be thrilled that somebody's talking to them or their agents.
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My understanding is that the only stupid thing they can do is give him a signing bonus.
Playing time, a 40 man roster spot, multiple years…
The Padres owe him just under $13 million/year for 3 years. The Red Sox owe him the league minimum for 3 years. Whatever the Cubs pay him, if it comes as a signing bonus or salary gets removed from that amount. Hosmer hasn’t been above 1 fWAR since 2017 and has only had 4 seasons above 1 fWAR since he came up in 2011. He isn’t good and isn’t in Heyward’s class of a leader.
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If they hypothetically do sign Hosmer, I'm curious as to HH's logic. It seems they are well below the lux line.
1. Is the logic that he's the best hitter available, regardless of price? Using Mancini as the example, do they just think that Hosmer is the better player, perhaps because he's lefty?
2. Is it that you should just never make bad $$-per-value deals? Maybe they like Mancini a little better, but he is demanding too much, and would be a bad-value signing?
3. Do they have some other spending in mind, so cash saved on Hosmer gives them more relief ammo?
4. Are they trying to save up for an in-season trade for a big ticket, in case the season goes favorably?
5. Is the logic that you can roll it over, so rather than spending on bad-value contracts, it's always just better to save cash for a good-value buy?
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Playing time, a 40 man roster spot, multiple years…
The Padres owe him just under $13 million/year for 3 years. The Red Sox owe him the league minimum for 3 years. Whatever the Cubs pay him, if it comes as a signing bonus or salary gets removed from that amount. Hosmer hasn’t been above 1 fWAR since 2017 and has only had 4 seasons above 1 fWAR since he came up in 2011. He isn’t good and isn’t in Heyward’s class of a leader.
I am sure they will give him a 40 man roster spot. But My understanding from reports is that what they pay him as salary will merely be ducted from what the Padres would otherwise pay him. If they give him a multiyear contract and then release him during the first year, they would only be liable for the first years, and San Diego will have to cover it all. As far as I know, Boston does not owe him anything, other than what they paid him last year.
But if they give him a signing bonus, that goes to the player, and is not deducted from what the Padres owe him.
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Dave, I think CBJ means he will get a roster spot so somebody will lose their spot.
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Dave, I think CBJ means he will get a roster spot so somebody will lose their spot.
Yes.
I am sure they will give him a 40 man roster spot. But My understanding from reports is that what they pay him as salary will merely be ducted from what the Padres would otherwise pay him. If they give him a multiyear contract and then release him during the first year, they would only be liable for the first years, and San Diego will have to cover it all. As far as I know, Boston does not owe him anything, other than what they paid him last year.
But if they give him a signing bonus, that goes to the player, and is not deducted from what the Padres owe him.
The Red Sox owe him $2.2 million over the next 3 years (minimum salary, the Padres owe the rest). He picked up his option before the Red Sox released him, Unless it was was team option with no buy out, the Cubs would be on he hook for any years the guarantee him.
A Signing bonus is part of the compensation, it would just get Hosmer the money sooner and assuming he lives in a low tax state decrease his state taxes. It would be deducted from what the Padres andRed Sox owe him. I would assume the deduction gets prorated to each team.
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Andrew Chafin is still available. I wouldn't mind that re-addition.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/cubs-trade-erich-uelmen-phillies-dfa-vinny-nittoli.html
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Dave, I think CBJ means he will get a roster spot so somebody will lose their spot.
Yes. And they certainly will.Yes.
The Red Sox owe him $2.2 million over the next 3 years (minimum salary, the Padres owe the rest). He picked up his option before the Red Sox released him, Unless it was was team option with no buy out, the Cubs would be on he hook for any years the guarantee him.
A Signing bonus is part of the compensation, it would just get Hosmer the money sooner and assuming he lives in a low tax state decrease his state taxes. It would be deducted from what the Padres andRed Sox owe him. I would assume the deduction gets prorated to each team.
That is not the way I understand it. I had heard that the Red Sox released him so they would not owe him for the next two years, but only had to pay him for last season, the Padres being on the hook for the rest if no one signs him. I would be interested in a link that shows the opposite.
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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-dfa-eric-hosmer-with-three-years-left-on-contract-pick-up-royals-pitcher-wyatt-mills/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20terms,of%20just%20over%20%242.2%20million.
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Cubs signed Brad Wieck to a 2 year minor league deal.
He’ll rehab probably all of this year.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/red-sox-officially-release-eric-hosmer-despite-owing-him-league-minimum/
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Thanks, Jeff.
So Boston owes 2.2 million dollars because of the terms of the trade with the Padres. Do the terms of that trade have any effect on the team that now signs him?
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Boston released Hosmer for baseball reasons, there was no financial motive. Replace a minimum-salary guy with some other minimum-salary guy, no financial reason.
Questions, from the link Jeff shared.
1. It mentioned Hosmer had back issues in Boston. Is this a long-standing problem, or one that might be no issue?
2. It mentioned Hosmer had been a 3-time gold-glove winner back in KC youth. I thought metrics showed him to be really bad recently? If so, might a cranky back factor? Or is his defense not bad even now, and he'd play 1B with Mervis DH?
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Dumb Q, but how does lux calc handle Hosmer?
1. If the Padres are paying most of his salary, minus the minimum-wage Boston obligation and the minimum-wage obligation of whomever signs him now, will the Padres be getting docked $11/year (plus tax)?
2. Or did trading him alleviate their lux-tax responsibility for his contract, even if they are actually paying most of it?
Assuming that they are still responsible, that would again suggest that, as with Boston, they dumped him for baseball reasons, not $$ reasons.
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Hosmer is a free agent. So, whatever deal he now signs governs the new relationship.
If his new club agrees to $5 per season, then he’ll receive $5 per season from that club and the CBT hit will be $5 for that club.
Of course, Hosmer has a separate contractual deal with Padres thru 2025. So, the $5 from the new club would be an offset from the Padres obligation.
The money owed by Red Sox derives from their club-to-club agreement with Padres. Red Sox theoretically could have negotiated terms that would require Padres to pay entire balance if Red Sox released Hosmer after 2022—-but apparently Red Sox did not do that. So, Red Sox get to pay the minimum thru 2025.
Of course, Hosmer could just go home and get balance of his Padres deal thru 2025. But, he wants to play.
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Left-hander Ryan Borucki is in agreement on a minor-league contract with the Chicago Cubs, source said. Borucki, 28, posted a 4.26 ERA in 21 games with the Mariners last season after five years with the Blue Jays.
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Hosmer official. MLB minimum.
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Chicago Cubs first basemen in 2022: .232/.304/.348/86 wRC+
Eric Hosmer in 2022: .268/.334/.382/104 wRC+
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The 1st baseman free agent class was weak after old man Abreu and the Cubs made him a 2 year offer and he accepted a 3 year deal.
I know Hosmer isn't anything special but he's better than what we had and wont block Mervis.
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With the Padres on the hook for Hosmer's entire $13 million salary over each of the next three seasons, any club that signs the veteran first baseman would only have to pay him the league minimum while he's on the active roster. MLB.com
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Left-hander Ryan Borucki is in agreement on a minor-league contract with the Chicago Cubs, source said. Borucki, 28, posted a 4.26 ERA in 21 games with the Mariners last season after five years with the Blue Jays.
Interesting. He's been a wildman lately, so probably JAG. But given how shallow the Cubs are in lefty relievers, seeing if perhaps Hottovy and pitch lab can tweak him up a little makes sense. He's probably got an opportunity.
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Now we wait for the DFA hammer to fall.
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https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
Interesting lux tax tracker. Not sure that it's correct or the most sophisticated, since the numbers here seem different from what Jeff have cited. Likewise the Athletic has cited some different source that has much less space than spotrac is showing.
Nevertheless, it's kind of a helpful convenient site, and I assume that if it's missing something, it's probably doing so consistently, so I assume if it's wrong on the Cubs, it's probably comparable faulty on the other teams.
Shows Cubs as the #7 payroll team, ahead of the LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Boston, and the Houston Astros.
Seems there is still plenty of spending space under the line, and it's not like there are big-ticket stars left. So their is still space for a bullpen signing or two that is more than a non-roster deal.
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Andrew Chafin is still available. I wouldn't mind that re-addition.
Thanks for mentioning him, Curt. I hadn't realized he was available. He opted out of a $6.5/1 deal. Maybe reflects the kind of contract he's expecting, multi-year at that or higher.
He's stacked two excellent seasons, and at 32 he's not fossilized. He'd be a good pickup.
Seems like the market for most FA's moved pretty quickly this offseason. I wonder how many relievers are left in the Chafin/Fullmer caliber.
I kinda feel like Hoyer's market should be a little different for relievers. He was really scrambling to sign some bodies. We remember the several that worked, but he also signed a handful that didn't. Maybe they feel like they're good at Tapera type guys, and trying to rebuild really cheap guys is their mode. But I wonder if, with our own young pitching percolating, whether they want to limit the volume and be more prioritized on a higher class of guys?
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https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
Interesting lux tax tracker. Not sure that it's correct or the most sophisticated, since the numbers here seem different from what Jeff have cited. Likewise the Athletic has cited some different source that has much less space than spotrac is showing.
Nevertheless, it's kind of a helpful convenient site, and I assume that if it's missing something, it's probably doing so consistently, so I assume if it's wrong on the Cubs, it's probably comparable faulty on the other teams.
Shows Cubs as the #7 payroll team, ahead of the LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Boston, and the Houston Astros.
Seems there is still plenty of spending space under the line, and it's not like there are big-ticket stars left. So their is still space for a bullpen signing or two that is more than a non-roster deal.
I'm a tad surprised that the Dodgers are listed as #8, behind the Cubs, the Braves and others in payroll.
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Sharma says Mancini still possible:
“If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen, he can still look to add another more powerful bat. He could still choose to pursue the right-handed Trey Mancini, who could get time at first with Hosmer as a platoon situation and also DH. Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible”
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Hosmer official. MLB minimum.
Strictly speaking, it’s not “official” until the team confirms the deal, typically after a physical.
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Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible”
I think I've said this before, but Hoyer should be talking to Tampa about Yandy Diaz. He's two years from free agency, so this is about the time they trade most of their good players. He's coming off a 4 fWAR season and is projected to do that again. He doesn't hit for much power, but he'd still help the Cubs offense a lot since he gets on base a ton.
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Sharma says Mancini still possible:
“If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen, he can still look to add another more powerful bat. He could still choose to pursue the right-handed Trey Mancini, who could get time at first with Hosmer as a platoon situation and also DH. Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible”
That's an interesting concept. A bench with: Barnhart, Hosmer, Mancini, Morel, and somebody from the Velasquez/Bote/McKinstry/Madrigal/Mastrobuoni crowd?
Not sure whether any of Hosmer, Mancini, or Mervis will be very productive. But maybe they'll be not so bad, and there's a good probability that they could be variably superior to all the AB's absorbed by Frazier/Heyward/Hermosillo/Simmons etc.. last season.
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I think I've said this before, but Hoyer should be talking to Tampa about Yandy Diaz. He's two years from free agency, so this is about the time they trade most of their good players. He's coming off a 4 fWAR season and is projected to do that again. He doesn't hit for much power, but he'd still help the Cubs offense a lot since he gets on base a ton.
That's a fun idea, br. An OBP-factory like that would be so fun to have in the lineup.
We've got some volume of pitching prospects in the minors, so *IF* they traded one as the main guy, it's not like we wouldn't have a bundle of others. Still, I do wonder if it's isn't still just a little too soon for Hoyer to be making trades of that magnitude? I'm not sure we have enough feel about where we stand with pitching prospects? I really have no clue which ones are going to be the best, and where their ceilings and command lie. Cubs luck, I can see giving away the pitching prospect who becomes an all-star.
I'd like to imagine that even by July, those pitchers will have had a little more time to shake themselves out, and hopefully succeed in volume? It might be easier to make a trade if a bunch of them are doing really well in upper minors next season. Perhaps by July Diaz will have less club-control left and he'll cost a little less? And maybe by July we'll have a better idea whether the Cubs are a 70-win team selling, or a player-or-two from being a 90-win team buyer.
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Man, Mervis doesn't seem to get much respect. It will be interesting to see whether that is justified or not.
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Man, Mervis doesn't seem to get much respect. It will be interesting to see whether that is justified or not.
Mervis will be 25 this April. If the Cubs don't believe he's ready now ...
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That's an interesting concept. A bench with: Barnhart, Hosmer, Mancini, Morel, and somebody from the Velasquez/Bote/McKinstry/Madrigal/Mastrobuoni crowd?
Not sure whether any of Hosmer, Mancini, or Mervis will be very productive. But maybe they'll be not so bad, and there's a good probability that they could be variably superior to all the AB's absorbed by Frazier/Heyward/Hermosillo/Simmons etc.. last season.
As a partial season ticket holder with the Orioles, I have a soft spot for Mancini - When in a slump, he certainly wears his heart on his sleeve
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Chicago Cubs first basemen in 2022: .232/.304/.348/86 wRC+
Eric Hosmer in 2022: .268/.334/.382/104 wRC+
Eric Hosmer from 5/1 on
.240/.305/.331 wRC+ 81
This team is going to be so, so bad on offense.
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Man, Mervis doesn't seem to get much respect. It will be interesting to see whether that is justified or not.
I don't think the Cubs have a 1B/CI/DH on their roster who would block Mervis if he's hitting in Spring Training. If they added Mancini, I still don't think they'd have a 1B/CI/DH in his way.
At this point, it takes a surprise trade for someone at 1B/DH to cut into his theoretical playing tim at all, IMO. And even then, 1B or DH is still wide open (and both of them might still be wide open if the trade guy can play 3B).
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Anything is possible, but I get the impression that he doesn't scout well. When I see guys like Slaughter and Peraza, I recall Robin Jennings from the '90s. With the Cubs running out lots of (relative) bums for their outfield, I was desperate for them to give Jennings a real shot. They never really did. My takeaway was that sometimes scouting perceptions dominate. Scouting suggests that certain guys can perform in the minors, but have limitations that will keep them from doing the same in the big leagues. I don't know if that is right, but I believe it's a real thing amongst front offices.
Part of me thinks it's not right. That Dave23's oft-stated line is true - confidence and opportunity can make for a viable big league player. The Cardinals' success in bringing up any seeming ham-n-egger makes me wonder.
I wouldn't expect to see Slaughter in a Cubs uniform any time soon.
The fascinating thing about Slaughter is that he may have come close to being released this spring when he failed to make South Bend's roster this spring as a 25-year old. According to AZPhil rather than moping he continued focusing on adding loft to his swing. When a spot opened in high-A in early May he was ready but really didn't take off until he received a challenge promotion to AA in early June. The swing modifications worked as he reduced his GB% from 54 to 41% and tripled his career-best HR total. A 0.241 ISO and 28 SB in AA is quite the combination.
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Man, Mervis doesn't seem to get much respect. It will be interesting to see whether that is justified or not.
Scouting being as lukewarm as it is on Mervis is usually that way for a reason. They're smart not to be counting on him, but there's no one blocking him if he proves the scouts are wrong. He'll get his chance this season.
As for Mancini, meh. He's not going to move the needle and you're likely going to have to give him 2-3 years. I'd rather have that money available next winter or spend it on a really good bullpen arm (since there are no hitters left who could make a real difference).
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Mervis should get regular ABs until he proves he’s not ready, or overmatched.
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Mervis should get regular ABs until he proves he’s not ready, or overmatched.
Absolutely. It's not like a minimum-wage Hosmer should threaten him. If he can't hold off Hosmer, yikes. If he's doing well, great. With both 1B/DH spots available, both guys can get chances.
I'm wondering more about defense? Scouting reports on Mervis's defense have been tepid; yet Banner said that his defensive metrics are actually pretty solid. But might Ross be more comfortable with the experienced guy even if he hasn't metric'd well? So I'm curious how Ross will play that if both guys are in the lineup, and whether Mervis will be fine defensively, or always more of a DH?
In Jeff's link, it mentioned that Hosmer had a bad back with Boston. I wonder how healthy he is, and whether that's a recurring issue that comes and goes, a chronic issue that's always there at this stage, or was a passing thing that might be completely resolved for this year? Seems to me that fielding with a stiff back wouldn't be easy. Is it possible that his bad hitting after his hot start was partly related to his back?
His recent hitting numbers haven't been great but haven't been bad versus RHP. And per Fangraphs, his wRC+ have been north of 100 for each of the last 3 seasons, they project 109 for him. We'll see. But given what we saw from our deep bench for 2000 AB last summer, *if* he hypothetically did product at the ~104-109 level, that's not as bad. Perhaps variably antiawful?
It would be fun if both Mervis and Hosmer were doing well, and *if* they were to hypothetically add Mancini, if he did well in selective matchups also.
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Steamer projects him for wRC+ of 109, it is the only projection included so far in his Fangraphs depth chart. It will get updated when more projections come out.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlqpVp1agAE7Yfl?format=jpg&name=small)
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I'm an optimist. Hoping Mervis hits really well. Hoping Hosmer is pretty decent, too.
In 2003, Erik Karros and Mark Grudzialanek had fangaphs wRC+ of 105 and 108. I wasn't enthused about adding either of them; I wanted Hee-Seop Choi and Bobby Hill. But that team wouldn't have won 88 games, or gotten within one game from the World Series, without them. Anti-awful/decent can be hugely valuable.
Obviously I'm counting on Mervis ending up with a MUCH better career than Choi or Hill!
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https://www.mlb.com/cubs/fans/cubs-convention?partnerId=zh-20230104-794771-CHC-1-A&qid=15&utm_id=zh-20230104-794771-CHC-1-A&bt_ee=cnCfvr33x8Hzr%2BORjOTKqi5THOpxSyGvW1xFFH%2FqGceZF4MxMt3acbyu52fKnZE9&bt_ts=1672864419042
Effigies encouraged and permitted. Setting them afire is discouraged. Pitchforks with more than five tines will not be permitted as well.
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They bought themselves enough goodwill with the Swanson signing to keep the convention from being a bloodbath.
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Steamer projects him for wRC+ of 109, it is the only projection included so far in his Fangraphs depth chart. It will get updated when more projections come out.
Hosmer at a projected 109 wRC+ would be WAY better than Schwindel’s 78 wRC+ and Rivas’ 83 in 2022. So, it’s a not insubstantial upgrade.
At a minimum salary on a 1-year deal, there’s no need to give Hosmer an extended period if he sucks out of the gate, although he was amazing out of the gate last season.
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As with all lefty hitters, you have to wonder how much the new shift rules will affect their offensive output.
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As with all lefty hitters, you have to wonder how much the new shift rules will affect their offensive output.
Hosmer is slow and is an extreme ground-ball guy, so that might benefit him even a little bit more?
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The hand-wringing over signing Hosmer to a minimum deal is pretty silly. He's not good enough to block an elite prospect, and Mervis isn't an elite prospect in the first place. More to the point, disregard position for a minute. As currently constructed, it's dubious whether the Cubs can field eight (clearly they've decided to write off catcher) competent major league hitters on any given day, regardless of where they play or which side they hit from. Hosmer if nothing else gives them more of a chance to manage that.
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Remarks like this from Sharma’s latest at TA make me wonder how much of a shot Mervis is going to get…
Mervis should still get a shot to make the team out of camp, but there’s now the insurance of an established first baseman should he need more time in Iowa. If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen, he can still look to add another more powerful bat. He could still choose to pursue the right-handed Trey Mancini, who could get time at first with Hosmer as a platoon situation and also DH. Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible, especially if it comes with little financial commitment for 2023.
Considering what we have available as a 1B option for ‘23, and considering Mervis’s performance in ‘22, he should be close to a lock to make the roster unless he shows that he shouldn’t be in ST. Wording such as “should still get a shot” makes it sound less assuring that he will actually have a chance to make the opening day roster.
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If Mervis was on another team, but available in a trade, many would be clamoring for the Cubs to bring him in to solve their first base problem. But since he is already on the team, the default position is "he will fail".
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Remarks like this from Sharma’s latest at TA make me wonder how much of a shot Mervis is going to get…
Mervis should still get a shot to make the team out of camp, but there’s now the insurance of an established first baseman should he need more time in Iowa. If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen, he can still look to add another more powerful bat. He could still choose to pursue the right-handed Trey Mancini, who could get time at first with Hosmer as a platoon situation and also DH. Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible, especially if it comes with little financial commitment for 2023.
Considering what we have available as a 1B option for ‘23, and considering Mervis’s performance in ‘22, he should be close to a lock to make the roster unless he shows that he shouldn’t be in ST. Wording such as “should still get a shot” makes it sound less assuring that he will actually have a chance to make the opening day roster.
Craig often makes the point about how hard it is to hit in Wrigley in April. I wouldn't be crushed if Mervis spends the first 4-6 weeks at Iowa.
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..from Sharma’s latest at TA .…
..If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen....
I'm really interested in the bullpen.
Last year David Robertson, Jesse Chavez, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Daniel Norris were all on the opening-day roster. Plus Stephen Brault, Jonathan Holder, Mark Leiter Jr., Robert Gsellman.
Boxberger is the only FA reliever signed for the 40-man. I assume Hoyer wants a couple more? In his post-season press conference, he made several references to that goal of adding vet relievers plural.
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Hosmer is slow and is an extreme ground-ball guy, so that might benefit him even a little bit more?
Guys like Rizzo and Schwarber were losing hits in mid right field with the second baseman playing rover. Hosmer hits a ton of ground balls. There is nothing stopping a team from putting the SS just to the near second in deep dirt, pulling the third baseman closer to SS and moving over the second baseman
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I'm really interested in the bullpen.
Last year David Robertson, Jesse Chavez, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Daniel Norris were all on the opening-day roster. Plus Stephen Brault, Jonathan Holder, Mark Leiter Jr., Robert Gsellman.
Boxberger is the only FA reliever signed for the 40-man. I assume Hoyer wants a couple more? In his post-season press conference, he made several references to that goal of adding vet relievers plural.
The bullpen is going to have to be near the best in the league for this team to have any type of shot.
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The hand-wringing over signing Hosmer to a minimum deal is pretty silly. He's not good enough to block an elite prospect, and Mervis isn't an elite prospect in the first place. More to the point, disregard position for a minute. As currently constructed, it's dubious whether the Cubs can field eight (clearly they've decided to write off catcher) competent major league hitters on any given day, regardless of where they play or which side they hit from. Hosmer if nothing else gives them more of a chance to manage that.
Does he though? Signing bad players to start is a bad idea.
Fangraphs Depth Charts NL Central
Cardinals: 46.6 WAR
Brewers: 42 WAR
Pirates: 35.7 WAR
Cubs: 35.3 WAR (8th Worst total)
Reds: 26.8 WAR
Cubs
Hitting: 24.6 (15.7 last year)
Pitching: 10.7 (8.7)
The path forward to being a World Series contender anytime in the next 5 years is so freaking narrow, I'm not sure how anyone can feel good about where the Cubs are.
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Guys like Rizzo and Schwarber were losing hits in mid right field with the second baseman playing rover. Hosmer hits a ton of ground balls. There is nothing stopping a team from putting the SS just to the near second in deep dirt, pulling the third baseman closer to SS and moving over the second baseman
Exactly, no rover. "Shift" is what always gets mentioned, but I suspect the dirt rule may be more impactful than the side-of-bag aspect.
Infielders play on the grass because it helps to steal hits. For slow lefties like Schwarbs, Rizzo, and Hosmer, infielders could position 50-feet into the outfield and still throw them out. The dirt rule will obviate that. A lot easier to shoot a hard grounder or low liner between Hoerner/Mervis or Hoerner/Swanson when they're starting on dirt. And with the SS needing to start at 2B, the lanes will be a little wider.
Since Hosmer is an awful groundball guy, the dirt rule may give him twice as many extra singles as guys who hit half as many grounders?
I admit I do wonder whether all the "shift" talk isn't largely overblown, and once the season is playing we'll forget about it.
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...
The path forward to being a World Series contender anytime in the next 5 years is so freaking narrow, I'm not sure how anyone can feel good about where the Cubs are.
For me, I want to see progress, and think that's part of the path. If we win 88 games this season and sneak in with a wildcard or a weak-division championship, I'd consider that progress along the path forward. I would like to see that path forward involve success for Mervis, Steele, Keegan, Wesneski, Estrada, ManRod, Alzolay.
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Does he though? Signing bad players to start is a bad idea.
Fangraphs Depth
Hosmer is better than the 8th best hitter on the Cubs, that's the point. He wouldn't be on a good team; he is on this one. He costs next to nothing and is easily waiveable. He gives them more platoon options, since they're so thin from the left side. It's silly to construe his signing as any kind of disaster.
All of this is premised on the idea of the Cubs trying to be a contender this season, which is almost certainly a fantasy anyway, but you have to drink the Kool-aid for the argument to even matter. Hosmer makes them incrementally better, and they'd already whiffed on all the hitters who could have done more than that. Better a minimum deal for Hosmer than multiple years and 10-15 million for someone else just as mediiocre.
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If by "contender" you mean the Cubs having a legitimate (more than one percent chance) to win the World Series this season, I would agree that that is definitely a fantasy at this point, in my opinion. If by "contender" you mean the Cubs having a legitimate chance to stay within half a dozen games behind the Cardinals this season, I would consider that to be unlikely, but not unreasonable.
And I don't think that Hosmer will have much effect on the odds of either scenario, one way or the other.
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Exactly, no rover. "Shift" is what always gets mentioned, but I suspect the dirt rule may be more impactful than the side-of-bag aspect.
Infielders play on the grass because it helps to steal hits. For slow lefties like Schwarbs, Rizzo, and Hosmer, infielders could position 50-feet into the outfield and still throw them out. The dirt rule will obviate that. A lot easier to shoot a hard grounder or low liner between Hoerner/Mervis or Hoerner/Swanson when they're starting on dirt. And with the SS needing to start at 2B, the lanes will be a little wider.
Since Hosmer is an awful groundball guy, the dirt rule may give him twice as many extra singles as guys who hit half as many grounders?
I admit I do wonder whether all the "shift" talk isn't largely overblown, and once the season is playing we'll forget about it.
Hosmer didn’t face the rover shift all that much.
His most common shift had the SS to the right of second and the second baseman closer to 1B.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/batter-positioning?playerId=543333&teamId=&opponent=&firstBase=0&shift=1&season=2022&attempts=25&batSide=L&gb=1&fb=0
If you look at his hit chart, you can still shift against him and not break the rules.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eric-hosmer-543333?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
There will be hitters that benefit, but it is going to be a different type of hitter than Hosmer. Guys that hit mostly drains balls you can still position your fielders to take away hits.
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Thanks. You are right.
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"Cubs — bullpen depth The Cubs rebuilt up the middle with the acquisitions of center fielder Cody Bellinger, shortstop Dansby Swanson and catcher Tucker Barnhart. They’ve improved their rotation with the signings of Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Their latest addition is veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer. Overall, they’ve had a strong offseason. Next up: adding bullpen depth."
- Jim Bowden, The Athletic
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Wonder what Alex Reyes would cost. That would be the sort of gamble the Cubs are in a good position to take.
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Reyes would be a good gamble considering that it's fun to spit in the Cardinal eye.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-hosmer-finds-his-change-of-scenery-and-what-lovely-scenery-it-is/
Not sure you can read this article by Michael Baumann of Fangraphs.com ... but if not here are two paragraphs:
But if the Cubs are paying Hosmer the league minimum, who cares? At his peak, Hosmer was a regular .300 hitter who didn’t hit for much power at all given his positional expectations, but he was hard to strike out and got on base. There’s a 135 wRC+ season in the not-too-distant past, and a partial 128 wRC+ season just three years ago. It’s a long shot that’s still in there, but what are the Cubs paying to find out? Basically nothing. I’ve eaten sandwiches that were riskier than this signing. (You can play fast and loose with expiration dates, and put pickled habaneros on your turkey and cheese, but you might regret it if you do both at the same time.)
And by dint of Chicago’s still-open DH spot, Patrick Wisdom and Matt Mervis can still get plenty of playing time, if that’s a major concern for Jed Hoyer and David Ross. It’s not like Hosmer’s even blocking anyone.
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Clears throat,
Signing bad players to league minimum contracts and hoping that they can regain former production is not a path that leads to a winning team. I don’t care that the Cubs are paying Hosmer $720,000 to suck. I care that the are paying Dansby Swanson $170,000,000 million and not trying to actually win.
The only way Hosmer could be interesting is if he actually would listen to coaches and do swing changes to put the ball in the air, he hasn’t shown interest in doing that.
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It's like Groundhog Day in here.
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Ive got you, Babe...
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Clears throat,
I care that the are paying Dansby Swanson $170,000,000 million and not trying to actually win.
Not actually trying to win what? And when?
If you mean not trying to win the World Series this year, then that is true. There is nothing that they could have done this off season that would have made them the odds on favorite to win the World Series this year.
If you mean not trying to win in the future, I strongly disagree with you. They have improved the 40 man roster quite a bit over last year, and they have improved the likelyhood of their farm system contributing substantially in future years. They are gradually trying to repair the damage that Epstein did in his final years, trying to take advantage of the "window of opportunity".
This can't be done in one or two off seasons, but good progress has been made during that time.
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Not actually trying to win what? And when?
If you mean not trying to win the World Series this year, then that is true. There is nothing that they could have done this off season that would have made them the odds on favorite to win the World Series this year.
If you mean not trying to win in the future, I strongly disagree with you. They have improved the 40 man roster quite a bit over last year, and they have improved the likelyhood of their farm system contributing substantially in future years. They are gradually trying to repair the damage that Epstein did in his final years, trying to take advantage of the "window of opportunity".
This can't be done in one or two off seasons, but good progress has been made during that time.
There is nothing they realistically could have done to be the odds on favorite to win the WS.
Unrealistically they could have signed Judge, Correa (3B), Swanson (2B), Turner (SS) Bogaerts (DH), Verlander, DeGrom, Rodon, Abreu, Nimmo and kept Contreras. Make some deals to address the bullpen and voila I think the Cubs would then be the odds on favorites to win the WS.
Pretty simple to have an off-season like that! Even then, I would take “the field” if I had to place a wager.
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Not actually trying to win what? And when?
If you mean not trying to win the World Series this year, then that is true. There is nothing that they could have done this off season that would have made them the odds on favorite to win the World Series this year.
If you mean not trying to win in the future, I strongly disagree with you. They have improved the 40 man roster quite a bit over last year, and they have improved the likelyhood of their farm system contributing substantially in future years. They are gradually trying to repair the damage that Epstein did in his final years, trying to take advantage of the "window of opportunity".
This can't be done in one or two off seasons, but good progress has been made during that time.
I don't think they have much of a realistic path to being a World Series contender in the next five years.
This current team isn't built to win the NL Central this year. Next year they are likely going to be replacing Happ and Stroman. Seeing that team as being competitive with the Cardinals is a stretch. So we are looking at 3 years before the Cubs might have a realistic shot at winning the division and the Cubs will have wasted the best years of Swanson on bad teams. Trying to be the Hendry Cubs seems to be what the Cubs are looking for building.
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That's ridiculous, IMO. There are so many unknowns particularly the development of young players and the availability of top tier players through free agency or trades. There's reason to doubt that the Cubs can improve enough over the next couple of years to seriously contend, but a negative assessment beyond 2024 means you don't believe in the Cub organization. You might be right, but that's a tough position to take if you're a Cub fan.
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Has CUBluejay morphed into JBN?
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Im glad that idiot left.
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By the way, Happy New Year, for all of you! I hope each of you is blessed with a wonderful new year in your personal lives. And that it's a fun, good-progress year for the Cubs for us to mutually enjoy. And thanks for being vicarious friends through this board; and for all of the stimulating and informative discussions and ideas shared here.
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By the way, Happy New Year, for all of you! I hope each of you is blessed with a wonderful new year in your personal lives. And that it's a fun, good-progress year for the Cubs for us to mutually enjoy. And thanks for being vicarious friends through this board; and for all of the stimulating and informative discussions and ideas shared here.
What are you, some kind of crackpot?
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That's ridiculous, IMO. There are so many unknowns particularly the development of young players and the availability of top tier players through free agency or trades. There's reason to doubt that the Cubs can improve enough over the next couple of years to seriously contend, but a negative assessment beyond 2024 means you don't believe in the Cub organization. You might be right, but that's a tough position to take if you're a Cub fan.
The Cubs path to World Series contention in the next five years is Ohtani and Soto as free agents and minor league guys producing. Some Cubs minor leaguer might hit their 1% outcome and then they become the next Bryant, but counting on that happening isn't a strategy. Hope leads to 108 World Series droughts. Having and executing a plan leads to breaking them. There is no plan for being a World Series contending team.
Has CUBluejay morphed into JBN?
I will happily change my tune when the Cubs actually do something to change it. I see no plan but trying to be a .500 team and sell tickets.
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The Cubs path to World Series contention in the next five years is Ohtani and Soto as free agents and minor league guys producing. Some Cubs minor leaguer might hit their 1% outcome and then they become the next Bryant, but counting on that happening isn't a strategy. Hope leads to 108 World Series droughts. Having and executing a plan leads to breaking them. There is no plan for being a World Series contending team.
I will happily change my tune when the Cubs actually do something to change it. I see no plan but trying to be a .500 team and sell tickets.
Do you feel this way because Ohtani has led his team to the World Series every year he's been an Angel?
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I don't think they have much of a realistic path to being a World Series contender in the next five years.
So I don't understand your complaint. If you say that they don't have a realistic chance to win in the next 5 years, what do you think they could have done this off season to "actually win now".
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Many, many, teams in MLB history have been in the World Series without big offensive stars beyond that season. Remember 2016? Indians top hitter was probably Carlos Santana. Nice career, not a big star. Jose Ramirez wasn't Jose Ramirez yet. Mike Napoli had a really good year. You need guys having good years. Indians came pretty close to winning it all.
Year before, 2015, Mets and Royals. Mets top hitters were Lucas Duda, late-career Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy got hot, Cespedes played one-half of a productive season. Royals top bats were probably Hosmer and Kendry Morales. They had good players. They won.
Yeah, nice to have Juan Soto, Ohtani, Goldschmidt, Arenado. But, baseball is unpredictable. There is no set, absolute formula for winning.
Kind of presumptuous to think you can see five years in advance. Probably even one year in advance is fanciful thinking.
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Don't forget The Indians in '89!
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Blue, not to gang up against you or anything. But I think I feel a little differently at several levels.
1. I can enjoy a season even if it doesn't result in a WS win, or have a realistic shot at getting there.
2. I think adding better players is a path, and that it's better than 1% longshot to get to the WS without a perennial HOF superstar.
3. Getting to be a realistic playoff team is easier than being a realistic WS team, but is still more than "being .500". And I think working to become a playoff team can be a strategic step on the path to become a WS contender.
4. Stars can emerge unexpectedly outside of the top of the draft.
5. FanGraphs-type projections are useful, but not always highly precise or accurate.
Some have been mentioned, but teams sometimes get to the WS without a superstar, and sometimes win. Reb mentioned the 16 Indians, who lost. Lester is probably the only 2016 Cub with even a shot at HOF consideration. It's a team game, so it's possible to win with a collection of good players.
I also think that high-end players can emerge unexpectedly and from places other than super-tank draft picks. Bryant was. But Rizzo was 6th rounder, Lester 2nd-rounder. Pujols 8th rounder, Randy Johnson 2nd rounder, Josh Hader a 19th rounder, Arenado 2nd, Goldschmidt 8th, Bieber 4th, DeGrom 9th, etc.. Jose Altuve signed for $15K.
Your point is surely true that you have more margin with a superstar (or three.). A lot easier if you've got one or more guys like that. No contesting that.
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What was the Royals farm system when all of the guys that made up the 2015 team were coming up?
The Cubs don’t have a Lindor in their system right now and even with a 1% outcome on Ramirez, Kluber and Bieber they have 1 World Series loss,
The 2015 Mets seemed to have a few stars as well.
The Cubs aren’t those teams.
Build the Astros or Dodgers where you are continually going to be amount the best few teams. That should be the goal, not hoping that everything is going align perfectly for a one time shot.
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Exactly. Don't sacrifice a lot of the future for a tiny improvement this year. Don't trade your best pitching prospect and your best hitting prospect for a decent, but not team changing pitcher, just to try to squeeze through the "window of opportunity. Don't spend a lot of money now on improvement this season, when you will need it in a year or two.
The Cubs spent substantial amounts of money both last off-season and this, to improve the infrastructure of the team and bring in parts of the base that can help over the next few years. They will be better this year than they were last year, and they have filled a couple of obvious holes that will help them not only this year, but also over the next few years. That is exactly what good teams do, and what Epstein failed to do.
The Cub future looks better right now than it did last year at this time. And I have every expectation that, with the continuing improvement in their farm system, improving pitching and hitting labs, and more money spent in the future, they will continue to improve in future years. As Craig says, the team doesn't have to win the World Series in order for me to enjoy following them. I enjoy watching the improvements in the farm system from year to year as well as that of the MLB team. The fact that they are not going to be a top tier team this year doesn't bother me in the least. They at last seem to be heading in the right direction.
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The Cubs were playing half way decent ball the second half of last season and they've improved their lineup. Have they improved it as much as we would like? Hell no. But, Blue, I don't understand the contention that since the guys they've added aren't who YOU wanted, the moves are crap. Would you really prefer going into the 2025 season thinking, gee this team is almost complete...wish they had a decent shortstop. Oh yea, I wish we had signed Swanson back in '2.
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The offense could be worse next year. There isn’t one hitter on offense that you can look at say this is the guy that is going to put up above an .800 OPS. The 2016 guys had 5 guys that did that. There isn’t one starter that you can say he going to put up an ERA below 3. The 2016 Cubs starters had 2.13, 2.45, 3.10, 3.35, 3.83.
You can’t look at AA/AAA and say that guy is close either. There are some players that I hope can become that, but no one I feel really confident about.
Frankly when 2025 comes around I hope we wishing we had extended Nico instead of signing Dansby.
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For the record, I'm just as down on the Cubs' foreseeable future as CBJ. But I'm just apathetic about them after 5 years of not really trying.
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So you guys feel they're stuck with they got? No future free agents, no trades with anyone, no lightning in a bottle, no career years. I think you've got terminal dismal weather depression.
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The Cubs were playing half way decent ball the second half of last season and they've improved their lineup. Have they improved it as much as we would like? Hell no. But, Blue, I don't understand the contention that since the guys they've added aren't who YOU wanted, the moves are crap. Would you really prefer going into the 2025 season thinking, gee this team is almost complete...wish they had a decent shortstop. Oh yea, I wish we had signed Swanson back in '2.
I'm not sure they've improved the offense TBH. Swanson is a very nice addition in all aspects but he's not a pure offensive star, and the best hitter off last year's team was replaced by Tucker Barnhart. You're basically banking on Bellinger not being awful after being awful for two seasons and guys like Hosmer and Mervis being league average or better and lifting you just based on how awful we were at 1B and DH.
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There are no guarantees in any aspect of life, and that includes baseball.
But the team, as a whole, is better right now than it was last year. Even the last half of last year. Yes, some MIGHT decline in production. But there isn't a single position on the team other than catcher where the offense MIGHT decline, and most, such as CF and 1B, SS and 2B, where it is LIKELY to be better. And right now the strength of the farm system is in offense. The world is not likely to end this year, and there WILL be another season in 2024, where the farm system seems likely to produce both offense and pitching on a consistent basis.
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So you guys feel they're stuck with they got? No future free agents, no trades with anyone, no lightning in a bottle, no career years. I think you've got terminal dismal weather depression.
Few major impact FA’s available next year, especially with Devers signed.
The kinds of trades that the Cubs need to put them over the top would cost a *ton* of talent.
This team is not a LIAB away from serious, perennial contention.
And CBJ isn’t saying career years can’t happen, only that it’s just as reasonable to expect no OPSs over .800 (I disagree here - between Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, and Suzuki I do expect at least one +.800 OPS hitter) or SP ERAs below 3.
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Few major impact FA’s available next year, especially with Devers signed.
The kinds of trades that the Cubs need to put them over the top would cost a *ton* of talent.
This team is not a LIAB away from serious, perennial contention.
And CBJ isn’t saying career years can’t happen, only that it’s just as reasonable to expect no OPSs over .800 (I disagree here - between Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, and Suzuki I do expect at least one +.800 OPS hitter) or SP ERAs below 3.
The lack of a real middle of the order hitter is a huge problem with no obvious solution. I mean, if you believed Stanton's 2022 was a blip and not age and you were willing to be on the hook with him for 5 years, I'm sure the Yankees would happily do that. It's an extreme example but that's probably the sort of thing the Cubs would have to do in terms of taking a big risk on somebody, and/or trading for somebody overpaid but still good.
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I'd trade a lot for Stanton.
I met him once.
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@JonHeyman
Catcher PJ Higgins has elected Free Agency rather than accepting his outright assignment ftom Cubs.
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Too bad. I liked him. But he was not a defensive-oriented catcher. If they were willing to give up Contreras, there wasn't much reason to keep Higgens.
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He'll help somebody.
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And CBJ isn’t saying career years can’t happen, only that it’s just as reasonable to expect no OPSs over .800 (I disagree here - between Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, and Suzuki I do expect at least one +.800 OPS hitter) or SP ERAs below 3.
So the the projections are giving the Cubs 1 player with an OPS over .800. Of your list I'd like Suzuki the best to be that guy. My actual point is if the Cubs want to be a World Series contender you need multiple players with an OPS over .800. That is how fat this team is from being good again. Moving from 20 to 16 in offense isn't going to change the direction of this team.
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Phillies had 3. Houston 4. Cardinals 3 (one being Pujols.). Braves 3 (Olson at .802). Dodgers 4 (two over .810).
We've got a ways to go, for sure.
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You can't predict beyond a year, if that.
First team I ever followed were the Dodgers in late 1950s. Most of the Brooklyn team had aged and now L.A. Dodgers finished 7th in 1958 in a 8-team league. Braves were the dominant NL team winning pennants in 1957 and 1958, including WS in 57. Braves had Aaron and Mathews in their primes and a host of really good players: Adcock, Crandall, Bruton, Logan. Dodgers were now platooning Snider and Hodges looked seriously in decline in 58.
So, in 1959, Dodgers win World Series---beating Braves in a playoff to win NL. Big year from a few nice players, like Wally Moon and Charlie Neal. Aaron and Mathews they were not.
Can't know how Cubs will perform in the next few years. Maybe can get a handle on 2023 club. But, stuff happens.
Been doing some research on the 1914 "Miracle" Braves, who won WS after a dismal 1913 season. A few guys came out of nowhere with really good seasons. They were a good club for another couple of seasons and then faded.
So many examples in baseball history of unpredictable things happening. I know it's nice to think you have a handle on the future. But, YOU DON'T! It may be comforting to think it's easy to see how things play out, but things change. That's life and baseball too.
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This past year, Toronto, the Mets, and the Mariners were in the top 7 teams in ops. Toronto was far and away the best and traded a 1.000 ops player away.
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Hoping that a 1% outcome happens isn’t a plan for success.
Sure the 1% outcome can happen and has had happened in the past. With multiple playoff series being an elite team for multiple years is going to greatly increase you chance at winning. The Cubs are far from that and unless something drastically changes (it could) I don’t see how the Cubs get from here to there.
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You’re pulling 1% out of thin air.
There are surprises every single season in one form or another.
Guess we’ve already forgotten that a 87 win team just went to the World Series——a club that was so great late in the season that they were swept three straight in late September by the lowly Cubs.
And you’re projecting FIVE YEARS out? Give me a break.
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Part of Hoyer's plan is having a D+D system. Between Mervis, Davis, Canario, PCA, Alcantara, Caissie, Hernandez, Ballesteros, Rojas, the plan is that a couple of these guys develop into .800+ guys.
Of the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Mets, Padres and Cardinals, only Cards had >2 guys over .820 last season, and Pujols was the longest of shots to produce at that level.
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I think it is likely that the Cubs have two hitters with an 800+ OPS this season. Susuki, Happ, Swanson, Bellenger and Hoerner all have the potential do so. I am more concerned with the black holes at offensive catcher, third base and possibly first base.
But I think the strength of the team will be the pitching staff, who has no top tier starters, but also no sure loser #4 and 5, along with decent middle relief. I think the Cardinals are the only team with a clearly better team going into the season, and every season has teams coming out of nowhere or descending to nowhere.
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Offensive catcher?
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Yes. A poor choice of words, but the Cubs seem to have given up on offensive performance at the catcher position. I doubt that it will increase under this administration. Interesting that the Cardinals, who always at least gave lip service to the defensive attributes of their catchers, went the other way this year.
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One thing to consider is that the dead ball era won’t last forever - MLB manipulation of offense is cyclical. Hoyer seems to be building a team for the dead ball era when we could easily flip 180 over a couple of seasons. It would nice to have some power bats who could take advantage of that.
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I see your point, deeg. Still, Canario, Davis, Caissie, Mervis, those all project as power bats. Certainly for this year Bellinger and Swanson are both guys with power, guys offense is pretty much HR-dominated.
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Part of Hoyer's plan is having a D+D system. Between Mervis, Davis, Canario, PCA, Alcantara, Caissie, Hernandez, Ballesteros, Rojas, the plan is that a couple of these guys develop into .800+ guys.
Of the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Mets, Padres and Cardinals, only Cards had >2 guys over .820 last season, and Pujols was the longest of shots to produce at that level.
Phillies had Harper, Schwarber and Realmuto at .820 or above last year. Houston had 3 with 2 guys over .900.
If you had to pick times for those guys to show up in the majors when would it be?
Mervis and Davis probably have the best shot at 2023, maybe PCA if he rakes.
PCA and Canario are probably more 2024.
Alcantara and Cassie are probably 2025 or later
Hernandez and Ballesteros are probably 2026 or later.
Not rookie is going to hit the ground running they might need time like Rizzo and Javy did. If the Cubs are counting those guys to get into an elite offensive team you probably need around a 50% hit rate and one of them needs to be Bryant level good. That is a lot to work out by the 2027 season.
Guess we’ve already forgotten that a 87 win team just went to the World Series——a club that was so great late in the season that they were swept three straight in late September by the lowly Cubs.
You mean the 87 win team that had their best player injured almost the entire year and missed 60+ games that still had 2 6+ fWAR players. I’d kill to have the Cubs with that kinda talent and the depth of the current farm system. Again I’m not saying surprises can’t happen. They can, but counting on surprises as you plan isn’t a plan. Hoping for the best is the current plan, which sucks.
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…lYou mean the 87 win team that had their best player injured almost the entire year and missed 60+ games that still had 2 6+ fWAR players. I’d kill to have the Cubs with that kinda talent and the depth of the current farm system. Again I’m not saying surprises can’t happen. They can, but counting on surprises as you plan isn’t a plan. Hoping for the best is the current plan, which sucks.
The only position player over 2.6 fWAR for the Phillies in 2022 was Realmuto. That’s it.
They were not a lethal offensive club until the post-season, #5 in NL in runs scored and #9 in ERA. Aside from Harper—who played 2/3 of the season—they were more healthy compared to most clubs.
Then, they got hot. It happens. We can cut it any way or rationalize whatever—they won 87 games. Look it up.
Anybody who thinks they have a fix on what Cubs can do over next five years is delusional. The correct answer is: who knows?
And, saying let’s sign Ohtani—That’s a plan?
It’s a good idea shared by 30 clubs in MLB.
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Many here know that Cubs Convention is coming up next weekend for those naïve fans who like to root for the Cubs but some may be unaware that on January 14 several battle-hardened pessimistic members of the Bleacher Bum Forum have organized and will be hosting the inaugural:
FIRST ANNUAL CUBS CURMUDGEON CONVENTION!
The Program:
1. FAKE NEWS! How the Cubs Actually Lost the 2016 World Series- Hosted by Alex Jones, who will furnish irrefutable proof that Indians beat the Cubs in 5 games and that games 6 and 7 were played at Buffalo War Memorial Stadium with actors portraying ballplayers. Sorry Cubs fans! Another 108 years to wait!
2. Off-Ramp To Wrigley. Hosted by Josh Vitters, Hayden Simpson, Ryan Harvey, and Mark Pawelek. These former first-round prospects will explain how they fooled the Cubs brass into thinking they would be good major leaguers and how they continue to provide Cubs scouts with data and reports for future Cubs drafts. Yes, it will go wrong again and again.
3. Harry Caray, The Golden Years. Hosted by Chip Caray. Chip will explain how Harry always loved the Cardinals and was at his best when working as a Cardinals broadcaster. Chip reveals that Harry always hated the Cubs, even to the point of muttering to himself "let's give up some runs" after singing Take Me Out To The Ballgame. Chip explains that Harry's statue was moved from its former prime location when Dutchy Caray was overheard saying that Ken Reitz was WAY better than Ron Santo.
4. Kids Only Press Conference. Hosted by Rudy Giuliani. America's Mayor will present a special lecture for kids under age 12 on "How To Keep Score." Now a lost art except for broadcasters, Mr. Giuliani will explain the symbols for correctly scoring a game with his special methodology in which your favorite team always wins, no matter the actual fake score. Yes, kids, no more crying when the Cubs lose....because you can show that the Cubs won. Mr. Giuliani will also be selling rare baseballs autographed by Cap Anson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown, authenticated by Giuliani Authentication Services. Yes, kids, it's real. Trust Us.
5. Zell Family Session. Join Sam Zell and his siblings Morris Zell and Shirley Zell as they discuss the two wonderful years of Zell family ownership of the Cubs. Learn how Mr. Zell planned to change the name of the ballpark to Zell Field and how he was five minutes away from selling the Cubs to Daniel Snyder, the astute owner of the Washington Commanders.
6. Baseball Operation Update: A History Lesson. Hosted by Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. Jed and Carter will explain their Plan For the Future, which will follow the model that Cubs set during the prolific years from 1947-1966 when Cubs finished a combined 568.5 games out of first place, an average of 28.5 games per season. Using advanced metrics and modern analytical tools, Jed and Carter will show that those Cubs team were actually excellent clubs that with tweaking by modern Pitch Labs and new hitting techniques will turn the Cubs into a perennial winner. Learn about Hank Sauer, Bob Rush, Hal Jeffcoat, Wayne Terwilliger and how these players are the mold for the Cubs going into the future. Or not.
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Pure gold, Reb.
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Sharma has a new column titled "Can the Cubs’ offense compensate for its lack of power in 2023?"
Sharma uses FanGraf's projection tool to compare last year's OPS+ by position to the projections for those positions in 2023. Even with a huge offensive downgrade at catcher, there is an overall significant upgrade as a whole. But while Sharma notes overall improvements for the team (including starting pitching and defense), the absence of power remains a concern, not only for fans but for Hoyer as well.
https://theathletic.com/4073818/2023/01/10/cubs-offense-slugging/?source=emp_shared_article
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Thanks for link, Ron. Nothing new, really, but I thought that was a good article. The only hypothetical "info" piece was apparent non-interest in Mancini.
Like you say, the chart comparing projected wRC+ per position is a nice way to picture things.
*That chart is somewhat deceiving: he compares actual wRC+ per position from last year, to projected wRC+ for 2023.... But for the latter he only uses starters. Obviously actual subs absorb a lot of AB's, and depress the overall positional-outcome.
*He doesn't include DH. That's a spot where wRC+ could be much improved.
*I've belabored this point, but perhaps the largest improvement in the offense (if there is any), could be from the bench. There were 2000 depth-AB that were awful. There's a chance those 2000 AB will climb variably closer to league-average.
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Sharma has a new column titled "Can the Cubs’ offense compensate for its lack of power in 2023?"
Sharma uses FanGraf's projection tool to compare last year's OPS+ by position to the projections for those positions in 2023. \
https://theathletic.com/4073818/2023/01/10/cubs-offense-slugging/?source=emp_shared_article
Not to get all Reb, but he is using Steamer. Fangraphs licenses it and is one of a multiple projection systems that will eventually end up on the site. Steamer is the only one that has released projections for the entire league.
The only position player over 2.6 fWAR for the Phillies in 2022 was Realmuto. That’s it.
They were not a lethal offensive club until the post-season, #5 in NL in runs scored and #9 in ERA. Aside from Harper—who played 2/3 of the season—they were more healthy compared to most clubs.
Then, they got hot. It happens. We can cut it any way or rationalize whatever—they won 87 games. Look it up.
Anybody who thinks they have a fix on what Cubs can do over next five years is delusional. The correct answer is: who knows?
And, saying let’s sign Ohtani—That’s a plan?
It’s a good idea shared by 30 clubs in MLB.
For once can you try and pay attention.
I have never said that surprises can't happen, I have just said it isn't really a plan to have that as your back stop.
I have said that I see only a narrow way for the Cubs to be top team in baseball in the next five years. Why would I say this. Jed Hoyer, who I think we can take at his word, that the farm system lacks super star talent. Jed Hoyer is an ok source in your book I would assume. The Cubs don't have a superstar on their current major league roster. The don't have an ace on the current roster. Unless you think the Cubs have Realmuto, Harper and Nola on the current roster.
So if we don't have the talent on the current roster or in the minors and the Cubs seem unwilling to spend on superstar players then I rational person could say I find it really hard to see how the Cubs Next Great Team gets built in the next five years and I even qualified if something changes it could change my mind. So you can continue with ridiculousness that I'm predicting the next 5 years of the Cubs being bad. When all I'm really saying it is hard unless the Cubs get some really great surprises in their current minor league players that they are going to be in the same class as the best teams in baseball. That doesn't mean that they couldn't be the best team in the NL Central, because the division isn't great.
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Everybody agrees that Cubs need high impact players. Every club in baseball wants high impact players.
It’s not really a “plan” to strategize for superstar players. Go sign Ohtani; that’s the plan. Okay, sounds good. Good luck. Save up for Devers. Oops, he’s gone. That’s not a “plan.”
What you claim to be a “plan” is just another way of saying make the team better by getting better players. Cubs did that this off-season but incrementally. Yeah, some folks don’t like incremental. I get that.
You are predicting that for next FIVE years Cubs won’t be serious WS contenders unless they adopt your “plan.” But, that’s not how baseball works. Clubs try to be smart and get better. Maybe you get lucky and Jake Arrieta becomes Rogers Clemens for a few seasons. Or, you parlay Andrew Cashner into Anthony Rizzo.
Yes, by all means, let’s go after Ohtani and outbid Steve Cohen or Dodgers or whomever. But, building an excellent club isn’t typically about planning to win the lottery. You do that by a mix of good decisions and luck.
That’s what some of us want to see. Won’t agree with every decision. Yes, and as in the past when Cubs outspent Yankees and were near the top in payroll, exceed CBT ranges when appropriate. Seems like even Dodgers trying to reset under CBT now, so most everybody does that at times.
Instead, what I’m hearing is a lot of presumptuous five-year projections that no one can possibly project with any basis and a lack of appreciation for baseball history that is replete with unpredictable events—-including stuff that just happened yesterday with a 87 win club reaching World Series.
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Many here know that Cubs Convention is coming up next weekend for those naïve fans who like to root for the Cubs but some may be unaware that on January 14 several battle-hardened pessimistic members of the Bleacher Bum Forum have organized and will be hosting the inaugural:
FIRST ANNUAL CUBS CURMUDGEON CONVENTION!
The Program:
1. FAKE NEWS! How the Cubs Actually Lost the 2016 World Series- Hosted by Alex Jones, who will furnish irrefutable proof that Indians beat the Cubs in 5 games and that games 6 and 7 were played at Buffalo War Memorial Stadium with actors portraying ballplayers. Sorry Cubs fans! Another 108 years to wait!
2. Off-Ramp To Wrigley. Hosted by Josh Vitters, Hayden Simpson, Ryan Harvey, and Mark Pawelek. These former first-round prospects will explain how they fooled the Cubs brass into thinking they would be good major leaguers and how they continue to provide Cubs scouts with data and reports for future Cubs drafts. Yes, it will go wrong again and again.
3. Harry Caray, The Golden Years. Hosted by Chip Caray. Chip will explain how Harry always loved the Cardinals and was at his best when working as a Cardinals broadcaster. Chip reveals that Harry always hated the Cubs, even to the point of muttering to himself "let's give up some runs" after singing Take Me Out To The Ballgame. Chip explains that Harry's statue was moved from its former prime location when Dutchy Caray was overheard saying that Ken Reitz was WAY better than Ron Santo.
4. Kids Only Press Conference. Hosted by Rudy Giuliani. America's Mayor will present a special lecture for kids under age 12 on "How To Keep Score." Now a lost art except for broadcasters, Mr. Giuliani will explain the symbols for correctly scoring a game with his special methodology in which your favorite team always wins, no matter the actual fake score. Yes, kids, no more crying when the Cubs lose....because you can show that the Cubs won. Mr. Giuliani will also be selling rare baseballs autographed by Cap Anson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown, authenticated by Giuliani Authentication Services. Yes, kids, it's real. Trust Us.
5. Zell Family Session. Join Sam Zell and his siblings Morris Zell and Shirley Zell as they discuss the two wonderful years of Zell family ownership of the Cubs. Learn how Mr. Zell planned to change the name of the ballpark to Zell Field and how he was five minutes away from selling the Cubs to Daniel Snyder, the astute owner of the Washington Commanders.
6. Baseball Operation Update: A History Lesson. Hosted by Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. Jed and Carter will explain their Plan For the Future, which will follow the model that Cubs set during the prolific years from 1947-1966 when Cubs finished a combined 568.5 games out of first place, an average of 28.5 games per season. Using advanced metrics and modern analytical tools, Jed and Carter will show that those Cubs team were actually excellent clubs that with tweaking by modern Pitch Labs and new hitting techniques will turn the Cubs into a perennial winner. Learn about Hank Sauer, Bob Rush, Hal Jeffcoat, Wayne Terwilliger and how these players are the mold for the Cubs going into the future. Or not.
Reb, this was well written. I laughed a lot. Is it yours or did you find it somewhere?
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Reb, this was well written. I laughed a lot. Is it yours or did you find it somewhere?
I actually thought it was not up to his usual standard.
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Reb, this was well written. I laughed a lot. Is it yours or did you find it somewhere?
I co-wrote that with Ron (the funny parts are mine).
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Ron has become quite the critic.
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I co-wrote that with Ron (the funny parts are mine).
Which ones were those? I guess I missed them.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmSnVcQXoAAi3q0?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Cubs have signed RP Vinny Nittoli to a minor league deal.
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On of the sports books set the over/under for the Cubs at 78. What would you take? 78 feels like a good number for this team. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with either. I wouldn’t be shocked if they had 70 wins or 85.
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I'd take the under but not by much. 75-76 wins sounds about right to me, but could be anywhere from 72 to 82 and it wouldn't shock me.
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Leiter Jr. gone to make room for Hosmer.
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Huge variability in the Cubs' 2023 season. Like no other team in MLB.
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Leiter Jr. gone to make room for Hosmer.
Kind of surprising that McKinstry is valued more by the club than Leiter.
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I dont think there's much variance as of now.
They're probably a 75-80 win team.
If Bellinger regains form and Mervis is a ROY candidate then maybe.
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Brennan Davis and Christopher Morel could change the game as well.
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I’m surprised at the Leiter DFA.
Not saying I disagree with it…just a little surprised the Cubs felt that way…as much as he was used…
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We have also signed Mike Tauchman to a minor league deal.
He was in Korea last season.
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Huge variability in the Cubs' 2023 season. Like no other team in MLB.
If you point this out you are a negative nelly.
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Saying that potential outcomes are variable is not being negative.
Saying that potential outcomes are variable, and then saying that the worst of the possible outcomes is the one that WILL happen, is negative.
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I’m surprised at the Leiter DFA.
Not saying I disagree with it…just a little surprised the Cubs felt that way…as much as he was used…
Cubs must have felt last year was kind of a fluke. Plus, he’ll be 32 with no options.
But, Leiter was very effective last year as a reliever. His oppo slash line as a reliever was 192-277-301. ERA of 2.87. Carved up lefties to a .176 BA. That’s in 53 IP. Had 4 poor starts that blew up his ERA, but really good as a reliever.
Not surprised McKinstry still here but surprised about Madrigal. Madrigal and Cubs came to arb agreement. Could still be traded but not going to be released. Has options.
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Huge variability in the Cubs' 2023 season. Like no other team in MLB.
Yes. The 78 seems like a fair number. I'll take the over. But wildly unpredictable.
Bellinger is the face of unpredictability and wildly variable possible outcomes..
*He's been awful for two years; for the four previous he was variably good.
*In his 6-year career, he's posted OPS's in the 500s, 600s, 700s, 800s, 900s, and 1000's. Never in the same hundred twice!
*Who knows what he'll be this year?
*My guess is 600's, like last year, in which case we'll likely fall short of 78.
*But *IF* he bumps into the upper-.700's, (.789 was his worst pre-injury season), the power/offense might not be awful.
I also think outcome-amplification may occur. If trending towards 70 wins, you sell productive guys come July. If winning and trending wildcard, you buy. We've got a rich farm system with volume of pitchers at an attractive developmental level. (ie, not years away.). So I think we'll have buying capacity.
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Cubs arb-eligible agreements today:
- Nico Hoerner: $2,525,000
- Nick Madrigal: $1,225,000
- Codi Heuer: $785,000
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I’m a little surprised Boston hasn’t been mentioned as a potential destination for Madrigal…
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I’m a little surprised Boston hasn’t been mentioned as a potential destination for Madrigal…
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/01/12/report-out-of-boston-raises-nick-madrigal-as-speculative-trade-target-for-the-red-sox/
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Nick Martinez
Nick Madrigal has been taking reps at third base this off-season, per #Cubs president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer.
Could factor into third base mix for #Cubs in 2023.
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Does Madrigal have the arm for 3B?
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Does Madrigal have the arm for 3B?
Probably not by traditional scouting standards. But he can probably make most of the routine throws.
If he hits, he most likely has a role.
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Remember that the Cubs traded for him because it was generally believed that his type of bat was what was needed, since all their hitters were of the same type. Too many strike outs, and not enough singles.
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Below is a link to Madrigal’s hit spray chart.
If you hit the line that says “2022 Hits Spray Chart” you can also access his previous years hits spray charts.
In 2022, remarkably, there is ZERO extra base hits into the gap. All of the few extras are hit down the left and right field line——probably just well-placed batted balls, at least that’s my recollection from watching games.
In 2021, with WSox, quite a bit different——quite a few extras into the gaps.
So, maybe Madrigal can get back to what he was doing in 2021. The guy we saw in 2022 was not a major league hitter.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-madrigal-663611
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In addition, prior to his draft, and I believe in the minors, he was considered to be a better than average defensive second baseman. When the Cubs got him, his record reminded me of that second baseman that the Cubs traded to Colorado for literally nothing, and became not only a good hitter, but also a gold glove second baseman.
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LeMahieu.
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Happ: $10.85 million
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Does Madrigal have the arm for 3B?
No, I don't think so. Heh heh, taking some reps is one thing, Ross choosing to play him there in a game might be another? I'd wondered if on hypothetical days if both Hoerner and Madrigal started, whether Hoerner might flip over to 3rd? With Maddon maybe, but Ross doesn't like shifting regulars around.
Cubs have no perfect backup 3B, though, or starter either. *IF* Madrigal were to hypothetically get his White Sox offense back, who knows.
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No, I don't think so. Heh heh, taking some reps is one thing, Ross choosing to play him there in a game might be another? I'd wondered if on hypothetical days if both Hoerner and Madrigal started, whether Hoerner might flip over to 3rd? With Maddon maybe, but Ross doesn't like shifting regulars around.
Cubs have no perfect backup 3B, though, or starter either. *IF* Madrigal were to hypothetically get his White Sox offense back, who knows.
Hey, LaRussa played Mike Squires at 3B once, why not.
Since the Cubs don't have a RH complement to Bellinger in CF, why not give Hoerner or Madrigal some run out there to see if they could be better than Morel (which is not a high bar, based on last season).
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That don’t have velocities on throws back when LaStella was a Cub but he averaged 72-73 with the Giants. Madrigal has been 78-79. Swanson’s velocities are similar to Madrigal.
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Ricketts really trying to blame everything on Jed.
They tried to hype the farm system and winning another World Series and it got a golf clap at best. Fan questions coming up.
Biggest cheer was the statue for Ryne.
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Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
Source: The Cubs are still in on Trey Mancini.
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That don’t have velocities on throws back when LaStella was a Cub but he averaged 72-73 with the Giants. Madrigal has been 78-79. Swanson’s velocities are similar to Madrigal.
Sox Madrigal was .745/.776 OPS guy with OBP .376 and .349. *IF* that Madrigal comes back, he can play some 3B. Every option for 3B is worth considering.
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Ricketts really trying to blame everything on Jed. ...
It's Jed's job to allocate his resources. I don't see a problem with the owner entrusting resources to president, keeping his hands off of personnel, and at some point holding the president accountable if he's unable to produce.... relative to the resources he's given.
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What if the direction chosen was because the owner cut the amount of money available, wouldn’t the owner bear some responsibility?
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Owner is responsible for how many resources he entrusts to the president/GM. President/GM is responsible for effectively using those resources. Faulting ownership for not allocating more is one discussion. Questioning whether pres has effectively utilized what he's been entrusted with is another.
I expect this will be a pretty impactful year on the latter analysis. Ricketts isn't Cohen, but neither is Jed working with Oakland/Pirates budget.
1. There have been suggestions that he hasn't used chunks of resources both last winter and this. Saving it for a rainy day may prove very wise; or not?
2. Two years ago, he thought Arrieta and Zach Davies were intelligent pickups. Last year he thought Miley, Simmons, Villar were intelligent pickups. This round he's ID'd Swanson and Bellinger as intelligent additions, and Smiley and Taillon. And he evaluated that Contreras wasn't good value. I think he's due to hit on some of his pickups. *IF* he hypothetically clicks on Swanson/Bellinger, I think this season will go well and he'll be vindicated. Perhaps look brilliant. But *if* Swanson/Bellinger hypothetically are two more busts, I think the question of whether Jed is effectively using his resources will be amplified. He's gotta start hitting on some of his pickups, and his multi-year farm rebuild needs to finally look ready to bear fruit.
Big year for Jed.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/01/14/cubscon-front-office-panel-jed-hoyer-and-carter-hawkins-speak/
"The main newsy thing to make sure to get in front of you folks this morning was Hoyer confirming that the Cubs aren’t finished adding to the big league roster. In fact, he said he was talking to agents on his way to the hotel today, working on a couple things. The bigger moves, yes, are probably done at this point. But Hoyer suggested moves are still coming in the bullpen and on the bench/with bats."
"Jed says they would love to have Ian Happ as part of the Cubs for a long time. They have talked to his agents about an extension. But he's not going to get into any specifics. Having "too many" good outfielders, though, is a problem the Cubs would happily invite."
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Tangent thought: Atlanta's Alex A has secured a bunch of extensions at seemingly good prices.
*In the Dansby S signing reports, he and Alex A had talked, directly, and at length. Seemingly not just once, but more than once.
*In Theo/Hoyer history, I don't ever recall reference from either them or from players about direct conversations. It's Jed-agent, never Jed-Rizzo, or Jed-Happ, or Jed-Willson.
*Hendry talked directly to Aram and others. (And Milton Bradley!).
*Dansby is self-confident, so maybe AA doesn't have conversations with other players. Hoyer may have direct conversations with players, with neither telling me or the media. So I don't want to over-assume anything.
*But I do kinda wonder whether Hoyer maybe isn't too corporate? Might GM's who are more personal, with man-to-man conversations with key guys, better able to retain and extend key guys?
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/01/14/ricketts-family-panel-at-cubscon-tom-and-laura-talk-spending-competitiveness-and-the-new-ryno-statue/
"Tom added that the spending this year should be close to the first luxury tax tier (if so, there’s still a bit more to come...), and they will go over it in the years ahead – but they have to be thoughtful about when they do that because of the financial and baseball-related consequences."
Jeff, how far short of lux line are we? ~20M? $16M? "Close" is a vague word, so perhaps being within $15-20 would qualify as close, and this doesn't mean anything. But it would seem to me that lux-line is probably the threshold, and that Jed still has some space.
That would still seem to be the kind of space to add Fulmer and Mancini, for example, while perhaps still leaving a little cushion for adding something at the trade deadline.
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Not to belabor the Mancini thing, but it's Hoyer who keeps referring to bench bat.
*IF* I hypothesize Mervis as the primary 1B, and Wisdom 3B. Where would the 5 bench players fit?
1. Barnhart
2. Jed's bat-to-be-acquired-later. (Whether Mancini or somebody else.)
3. Morel
4. Hosmer
5. Madrigal.
Outside: Velasquez, Mastrobuoni, McKinstry, Bote, Hill.
Could obviously sending Mervis and/or Madrigal down to Iowa.
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I wonder about the add to roster comment. Since neither Mancini nor any other FA is going to make this team dramatically better. I think a major trade is the only way it can happen.
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Owner is responsible for how many resources he entrusts to the president/GM. President/GM is responsible for effectively using those resources. Faulting ownership for not allocating more is one discussion. Questioning whether pres has effectively utilized what he's been entrusted with is another.
I think Ricketts pulled the rug out from under Theo when Harper was a free agent. The lack of spending led to the downfall of the former core. Then he cut the budget again leading to Darvish salary dump and the rebuild that isn’t a rebuild.
Now we have the we are going to try and win the division but staying below the luxury tax. The Ricketts family set up the losing and I think Jed until this year had done the best he could with the hand he had.
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Jeff, how far short of lux line are we?
I've got them $17.9 below.
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LeMahieu.
Thanks, Corey.
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Since the Cubs don't have a RH complement to Bellinger in CF, why not give Hoerner or Madrigal some run out there to see if they could be better than Morel (which is not a high bar, based on last season).
Morel hit 16 home runs and had an OPS of 741 in his rookie season. If you consider that a low bar, you are destined to a lifetime of disappointment.
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I remember someone saying that we were between 15 and 20 million short of the lux tax. But I don't know if that was fact or speculation.
It is rather difficult to be precise with the figures without knowing some rather vague details, such as actual salary vs AAV, future buyout payments, etc. And I can't believe that they would go into the season without some money in reserve in case of mid-season expenditures, etc. So if in fact they spend 10 million on someone (Mancini), I would think that that would be the end of it except for minor deals.
I doubt very much that they will make a trade large enough to make a substantial impact on the team this year. At least I hope they don't. Why go through the suffering of a rebuild and then toss it away with a Nowican trade?
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Morel hit 16 home runs and had an OPS of 741 in his rookie season. If you consider that a low bar, you are destined to a lifetime of disappointment.
The comment was in reference to his defense, which I thought was pretty obvious. Morel was 45h out of 46 qualifying CF in DRS. Is that bar low enough for your exacting standard?
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Cubs interested in Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/cubs-interested-in-andrew-chafin-matt-moore.html
I didn't realize how good Matt Moore was last year in his first season as a full-time reliever. I'm not sure I even realized he was still pitching.
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News: Free agent Trey Mancini is in agreement with the Cubs on a 2 year deal which includes an opt out, sources tell ESPN.--Jesse Rogers
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Meh. I'm Ok with Mancini as a platoon option but I hate being on the hook for a second year if he sucks again. It shouldn't matter with one of the richest franchises in sports, but clearly it does.
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I’m sure Mervis needs to work on his base running or something…
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I’m sure Mervis needs to work on his base running or something…
I don't see Mancini as having any impact on Mervis. As weak as this offense will be platoons are going to have to be a major component.
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The comment was in reference to his defense, which I thought was pretty obvious. Morel was 45h out of 46 qualifying CF in DRS. Is that bar low enough for your exacting standard?
If Morel can OPS over 800, they will suddenly decide that his defense can be improved enough to find a place for him.
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If Morel can OPS over 800, they will suddenly decide that his defense can be improved enough to find a place for him.
Which is completely irrelevant to the point under discussion.
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Cubs interested in Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/cubs-interested-in-andrew-chafin-matt-moore.html
I didn't realize how good Matt Moore was last year in his first season as a full-time reliever. I'm not sure I even realized he was still pitching.
Bring back the Sheriff! He's good.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cub news- Trey Mancini gets two years $14 million guarantee.Bonuses can add another $7 million from PA totals. Mancini can opt out if he gets 350 PA in 2023.
I doubt this will end up being a good deal for the Cubs. Hopefully he's good enough this year to opt out.
This is the Tribune model--spread it around on players people have heard of, but never go after the difference-making players. You come away with a 1989 or 1998 every once in a while, but most years are disappointing.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cub news- Trey Mancini gets two years $14 million guarantee.Bonuses can add another $7 million from PA totals. Mancini can opt out if he gets 350 PA in 2023.
I doubt this will end up being a good deal for the Cubs. Hopefully he's good enough this year to opt out.
This is the Tribune model--spread it around on players people have heard of, but never go after the difference-making players. You come away with a 1989 or 1998 every once in a while, but most years are disappointing.
My hope is the same - he's good enough to opt out (even better, to be flipped at the deadline). It seems unlikely though.
I hate being on the hook for $7 mil to Mancini in 2024 when you know the club is going to be skrimping every penny, like always. Another excuse not to go after players who are actually good.
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Mancini has played a fair bit of LF/RF in his career. I wonder if that was a younger man, and those days are no chance now?
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Refresh my memory: he's a cancer survivor, right?
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Yes. Colon cancer, if I remember correctly
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...This is the Tribune model--spread it around on players people have heard of, but never go after the difference-making players. You come away with a 1989 or 1998 every once in a while, but most years are disappointing.
Spread-it-around isn't very exciting. But I wonder if there isn't some value in anti-awful? We've burned so many AB's on awful hitters over recent years. Having a deeper roster might pay off.
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Over his career, Mancini has been stunningly splitless.
LHP: .265/.330/.456/.786
RHP: .266/.331/.459/.790
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Cub news- Trey Mancini gets two years $14 million guarantee.Bonuses can add another $7 million from PA totals. Mancini can opt out if he gets 350 PA in 2023.
I doubt this will end up being a good deal for the Cubs. Hopefully he's good enough this year to opt out.
This is the Tribune model--spread it around on players people have heard of, but never go after the difference-making players. You come away with a 1989 or 1998 every once in a while, but most years are disappointing.
Once Heyward, Happ and Stroman are off the books next year there will still be plenty of money to spread around on other short term perfectly fine, quality guys.
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With more money to spend, and fewer holes to fill, they can fill the ones that remain with fewer, higher priced replacements.
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I would have liked Josh Bell at 2/$33 way better than the deal we gave Mancini. I'm actually surprised it took us an extra year to get Mancini done.
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Mancini looks like a better bet to be productive than Hosmer.
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I would have liked Josh Bell at 2/$33 way better than the deal we gave Mancini. I'm actually surprised it took us an extra year to get Mancini done.
A 2/33 contract would probably have ended things for the year. This gives them the ability to make a trade in midseason if a specific needs crops up.
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I'm thinking a multi-year contract to any supposed left handed hitting power hitter would warrant a pretty deep dive into batted ball data, given how hard Wrigley Field can be on those guys. You don't want to end up with a guy who hits a lot of deep outs into the well.
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In that vein, Happ seems very well suited to Wrigley. Not a lot of HRs to RF, but extra base hits and some oppo power. His home/away splits are noteworthy. Throw in the solid defense in LF. I think the Cubs would be wise to work out an extension with him.
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I'm thinking a multi-year contract to any supposed left handed hitting power hitter would warrant a pretty deep dive into batted ball data, given how hard Wrigley Field can be on those guys. You don't want to end up with a guy who hits a lot of deep outs into the well.
Ahhh, memories of Bobby Murcer.
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I think holding back some of the budget now for a hypothetical midsesason trade is the wrong move. What good does that money do if the Cubs are out of contention in July? They have holes now, so fill as many as possible now.
It's like when a manager tries to save his closer for extra innings during a tie game in the 9th...it's not going to matter if the closer is still available if the 10th inning never happens.
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I think holding back some of the budget now for a hypothetical midsesason trade is the wrong move. What good does that money do if the Cubs are out of contention in July? They have holes now, so fill as many as possible now.
It's like when a manager tries to save his closer for extra innings during a tie game in the 9th...it's not going to matter if the closer is still available if the 10th inning never happens.
On the other hand, if you are close in July and need an available third baseman that might put you over the top, it would be nice to be able to get one.
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They can worry about that in July. Right now, they need to make the team better in April-June to increase the chances that July does matter.
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The Cubs can go over the luxury tax, they just don’t want to.
With more money to spend, and fewer holes to fill, they can fill the ones that remain with fewer, higher priced replacements.
Replacing your best pitcher and one of your top 2 hitters leaves a pretty big holes to fill.
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They need a closer.
Aroldis Chapman anyone?
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They need a closer.
Aroldis Chapman anyone?
Maybe we can get Chapman and Bauer as a package deal. Do they have the same agent?
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Pretty interesting article on Hendricks' recovery/reclamation process.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-kyle-hendricks-20230115-jredyoyoorgxxbipnj6wlc4rce-story.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Don%27t%20miss%3A%20News%20%2B%20Sports&utm_content=5721673794838&lctg=3413204
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I do think we're strongly improved.
A good closer and contributions from Mervis and Davis could make us a playoff team.
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Chapman looked pretty close to done last year.
He'll be very cheap this year, so it's probably more likely than not that someone will end up signing him. But I wouldn't be that surprised if he goes unsigned just because no one thinks he's good enough to be worth the potential PR headache.
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The Cubs can go over the luxury tax, they just don’t want to....
"Tom added that the spending this year should be close to the first luxury tax tier (if so, there’s still a bit more to come, just sayin’), and they will go over it in the years ahead – but they have to be thoughtful about when they do that because of the financial and baseball-related consequences."
Hoyer's plan is that Bellinger and this year's team wins, and gets into wildcard neighborhood or better. With prospects ripe, then he'll be ready to go over it next year.
Hoyer needs to hit on some of his additions, Bellinger included. But if so, I think the arrow is up. Hoyer's patience might pay off.
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Pretty interesting article on Hendricks' recovery/reclamation process.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-kyle-hendricks-20230115-jredyoyoorgxxbipnj6wlc4rce-story.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Don%27t%20miss%3A%20News%20%2B%20Sports&utm_content=5721673794838&lctg=3413204
Ron, any synopsis? That's a subscription article.
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Craig - I've copied and pasted the article from the Trib. Here it is:
Kyle Hendricks is keeping a methodical, big-picture focus through his rehab process.
Fully embracing a one-day-at-a-time mantra has been a staple of Hendricks’ routine since his 2022 season officially was shut down in August because of a capsular tear in his right shoulder. He hasn’t thrown off a mound since his last start June 5 as he continues to work through the Chicago Cubs’ detailed throwing progression plan.
Hendricks is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. He isn’t sure at this point if the Cubs’ March 30 opener is a realistic goal, adding “that might be pushing it a little bit.”
“We’re really not putting a day on it, so if it comes sometime in April, May, I really want to be there and be 100% for these guys,” Hendricks said.
“Winning this division is obviously our first goal, and you’re only going to do that by getting hot at the end (of the season), so whatever ramp I need to take, I just want to be there as soon as I can and make as many starts. ... Putting those (opening-day) expectations is tough, but it’s very close around that time. Once I get off the mound and see all that goes and how much they want me to build up — there’s a lot of factors that go into it.”
Hendricks started his throwing program Dec. 1, a few weeks behind when he typically begins ramping up for the season. Going 4½ months without pitching has challenged Hendricks, who prefers a heavy throwing load in the offseason and between starts. He anticipates building up to pitching off a mound around March 1. He’s currently at 90-foot long tosses.
Most important, Hendricks said his shoulder feels amazing, which is the No. 1 priority.
“It took a while going through all the exercises and stuff from the beginning to prepare myself to throw,” Hendricks said. “I would feel good, but sometimes you have to take that out of it. I really had to put a lot of faith into the doctors and the trainers because shoulders can be really tough and it can just be a slow process.
“I’d obviously like to be ramping up and getting after it. But it’s a little different process for me. It’s one day at a time.”
Improved rotation depth lessens the urgency of Hendricks’ return.
“It gives me a lot of mental ease, and I know the organization feels that way too,” Hendricks said. “We have a lot of depth to start the year with and you always have those off days at the beginning of the season to get through that first month, so we’re going to be set up fine to get through the beginning of that.”
Capsular tears sometimes require surgery. That remains in the picture for Hendricks if the shoulder issue reemerges. MRIs on his shoulder have looked clean, and physically Hendricks can tell the area feels stronger through six-plus months of continuous rehab work.
“You can’t really worry about what if — if (the rehab) doesn’t work, it doesn’t work,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy told the Tribune on Saturday. “We’re not going to look back and say, gosh, I wish we had done this and we should have done this — no, we’re doing things the right way that the doctors approved of and recommended and our training staff and internal guys recommended.
“The coaching staff and the analytical side, we’re all on the same page. So it’s not like somebody’s going to be like, well, I told you if we had done XYZ ... that’s not the case.”
A shortened arm path
Evaluating how Hendricks can recapture his old form dates further than pre-injury last season.
Hendricks’ arm action has evolved since his career-best 2016 performance. Over time, the right-hander’s arm path has become too elongated. Pulling his arm up into the ideal elbow flexion position put stress on his shoulder, and the kinetic chain became disconnected.
Hottovy and the Cubs pitching infrastructure have worked with Hendricks over the offseason to harness a shorter, more direct arm path. Hendricks admitted the adjustment felt weird his first couple of weeks throwing, which to this point has been on flat ground. The big test to his reformed arm path will come when he throws off a mound, calling that eventual checkpoint in his rehab an eye-opening moment for where his delivery is.
“It feels drastic to me, yet it might look subtle,” Hendricks said. “I don’t want to get too short because that’s kind of too far the opposite way. So it’s more making sure I get the ball out of my glove and stay long enough but then just get it right up to my ear. That’s really where my strong position is anyway.
“I can tell how healthy I feel and how good my shoulder feels when I do it the right way.”
Hendricks anticipates his shorter, more direct arm path will make his stuff sharper with more life on pitches.
“I just want to make sure I have full extension again and I’m finishing all my pitches,” Hendricks said. “That’s where my good action is going to come and hopefully back to a lot of soft contact.”
The Cubs also believe the adjustment will help Hendricks avoid a similar injury in the future while creating a more consistent and effective delivery.
“(Longer arm action) works when you’re in sync and your shoulder is strong and healthy,” Hottovy said. “The minute it gets outside of your bubble, that creates a ton of stress. (The change) feels weird because a lot of the training he always wants to get his arm out (behind him).
“When you deal with injuries, sometimes you’ve got to make changes to help repattern that movement and change the stress that was being put on one area and move it somewhere else and move it more efficiently.”
A teammate’s insight
Jameson Taillon understands how an injury can spur change to a pitcher’s delivery and what it takes to implement a shorter arm path.
Coming off his second Tommy John surgery in 2019, Taillon knew something had to change. He took it as a sign that something clearly wasn’t right with his delivery and arm movement.
“People would have thought I was crazy — I threw 32 starts and 191 innings (in 2018) — but I knew deep down something wasn’t quite right,” Taillon told the Tribune on Saturday. “I wasn’t recovering properly. So when I had that second elbow surgery, it was like my body telling me, let’s go attack this and clean up (my arm path).”
Hendricks was in the process of implementing his shorter arm movement when the Cubs signed Taillon on Dec. 18. They connected via texts in which Taillon was an open book to Hendricks about the process he went through to adjust to his shorter arm path, going in depth on specific drills that worked best for him, lower-body changes that were needed in conjunction and weight-room activities to aid in carrying over arm patterns and repetitions.
Utilizing hip-hinge exercises improved Taillon’s lower-body strength and stability, while incorporating plyo balls helped him create patterns with his arm path so it became second nature. Taillon has maintained the same drills involving plyo balls and a medicine ball the last three years. He outlined his approach and application to Hendricks.
“That’s the fun part about playing with guys who care about their craft is you can have those conversations,” Taillon said.
Lower-body drills play a deceptively important role for a smooth delivery. Efficient lower-half movements has a ripple effect on efficient arm motion, collectively allowing a delivery to speed up in sync. Hottovy believes the Cubs could see a more athletic, freely moving Hendricks this season with his lower body and arm more aligned in conjunction with the arm-path change.
Hendricks, 33, knows he needs to deliver in 2023 as he faces an uncertain future in Chicago entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Cubs hold a $16 million option for 2024. Overcoming the shoulder injury and adapting to a shorter arm path present a different challenge for Hendricks.
“It’s fun to see him continue to evolve,” Hottovy said. “It’s good to feel uncomfortable at times. Uncomfortable may be a good thing. Maybe that’s your body reorganizing and getting back to being healthy.
“There’s going to be a process and a lot of communication along the road. That’s what we have to do. You can’t just keep pushing if something’s up. You have to make adjustments.”
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"Tom added that the spending this year should be close to the first luxury tax tier (if so, there’s still a bit more to come, just sayin’), and they will go over it in the years ahead – but they have to be thoughtful about when they do that because of the financial and baseball-related consequences."
Hoyer's plan is that Bellinger and this year's team wins, and gets into wildcard neighborhood or better. With prospects ripe, then he'll be ready to go over it next year.
Hoyer needs to hit on some of his additions, Bellinger included. But if so, I think the arrow is up. Hoyer's patience might pay off.
Looking at the playoffs teams from last year are their any teams that you can look at the Cubs off-season vs their off-season and say that they significantly narrowed the gap?
If the Cubs actually thought this team could win they would be over the luxury tax. They don’t and are choosing not too.
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"Tom added that the spending this year should be close to the first luxury tax tier (if so, there’s still a bit more to come, just sayin’), and they will go over it in the years ahead – but they have to be thoughtful about when they do that because of the financial and baseball-related consequences."
Hoyer's plan is that Bellinger and this year's team wins, and gets into wildcard neighborhood or better. With prospects ripe, then he'll be ready to go over it next year.
Hoyer needs to hit on some of his additions, Bellinger included. But if so, I think the arrow is up. Hoyer's patience might pay off.
That “if so” is a killer.
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The problem is, IF Bellinger rebounds as we hope, will Jed pay him what he's worth next year?
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The problem is, IF Bellinger rebounds as we hope, will Jed pay him what he's worth next year?
I think if that happens the most likely scenario is he’s flipped at the deadline. Bellinger being good again is only one of so many improbable things that have to go right for the Cubs to contend.
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The problem is, IF Bellinger rebounds as we hope, will Jed pay him what he's worth next year?
Yes, without a doubt. The problem is that he would have to pay him that amount for ten years.
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I think it’s highly improbable Bellinger bounces back to his MVP levels.
If that was to happen, however, I’d expect the Cubs to make every effort to sign him…depending on asking price, of course…
I don’t believe it’s (a bounce back) happening, though.
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I don't think the Cubs consider the bar to be too high with Bellinger. Solid defense in CF with average offense. Anything below that would be disappointing. More than that would be great but not necessarily expected.
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One of the most fascinating things that will come out of spring training is the semi-regular lineup that Ross will settle on. Whatever you think of the pieces, they don't fit together in an obvious way.
Happ-Bellinger-Suzuki-3B-Swanson-Hoerner-Hosmer-C-Mancini
I imagine they'll give Swanson the spot he had last year with Atlanta - 2.
I don't think we've acquired anyone that would push Happ and Suzuki out of 3 and 4.
I'm kind of imagining 3B and C occupying 8 and 9 (in whatever order). I would do C 8 and 3B 9.
Beyond that, who knows? Hoerner 1? He's not the ideal leadoff hitter, but then who? Would they bat Hosmer first to at least take one double play opportunity out of play?
I imagine they wouldn't want to put too much pressure on Bellinger out of the gate.
Hosmer
Swanson
Happ
Suzuki
Mancini
Hoerner
Bellinger
C
3B
Your thoughts?
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Hoerner,Swanson,Happ,Suzuki,Mancini,Bellinger,Wisdom,Hosmer,Gomes.
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Hoerner,Swanson,Happ,Suzuki,Mancini,Bellinger,Wisdom,Hosmer,Gomes.
That's pretty good, my man. Gives the most PAs to the players most likely to be productive.
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Ron, thanks very much for that Hendricks article. That was really thorough, super informative. Encouraging that the delivery-revision might result in improved stuff and improved command.
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Even if Bellinger “rebounds” to something like .230-310-430 he would be a pretty valuable guy as a competent defensive CF. At his age he could probably spin a season like that into a 5/120 type deal.
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I agree that if Bellinger does well and they can not extend him by the trade deadline, that he will be traded. In fact, he may be traded even if he does badly, if they think that PCA is near ready and Mervis is in the majors and doing well.
I like Corey's lineup, but if I were making out the lineup, I would swap Swanson and Hoerner.
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I'm the optimist, but nobody's looking for MVP Bellinger, I'm not that naive.
Hoyer is gambling this season in hopes Bellinger can be ≥.740 again. Certain, no; possible, yes. If Bellinger's the .542-OPS guy from two years back, this team is going nowhere. *IF* you get ≥.740, or ≥.789 as he was in four seasons, Hoyer thinks they'll have a plausible shot. Hoyer and his guys analyze that he can be resurrected to that level. *IF* they're wrong, Hoyer's season will fail, and he will deserve to be judged accordingly.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/levine-are-ian-happ-nico-hoerner-extensions-a-priority-for-cubs/
"The Cubs have not given an extension to a rostered player since they extended Kyle Hendricks to a 4-year $55.595 million contract on March 26th of 2019. The Cubs had not been able to get a deal done with former All-Stars Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant or Javier Báez before trading them in July of 2021.
According to industry sources, the Cubs had offered longer contract extensions and for higher annual average salaries to all three players than the ones they eventually signed elsewhere."
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I'm the optimist, but nobody's looking for MVP Bellinger, I'm not that naive.
Hoyer is gambling this season in hopes Bellinger can be ≥.740 again. Certain, no; possible, yes. If Bellinger's the .542-OPS guy from two years back, this team is going nowhere. *IF* you get ≥.740, or ≥.789 as he was in four seasons, Hoyer thinks they'll have a plausible shot. Hoyer and his guys analyze that he can be resurrected to that level. *IF* they're wrong, Hoyer's season will fail, and he will deserve to be judged accordingly.
My point is that it’s going to take a lot more than Bellinger reverting to a league-average hitter for the Cubs to contend. Even his MVP self probably wouldn’t be enough - a lot of other inside straights have to be hit on the river.
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Chapman looked pretty close to done last year.
He'll be very cheap this year, so it's probably more likely than not that someone will end up signing him. But I wouldn't be that surprised if he goes unsigned just because no one thinks he's good enough to be worth the potential PR headache.
I’m not suggesting we should sign Chapman as I don’t think there is much left but more of a post about PR headaches specific to players.
At this point is Chapman still a PR headache? So many players have had issues but it seems the further away from the issue it gets, the less people care. Kobe Bryant, Ben Roethlisberger, Manny Ramirez, wade Boggs, Jason Kidd etc…..
Deshaun Watson and Trevor Bauer are the hot names involved with negative PR currently.
Cub fans cheered for Chapman when the situation was fresh, I’m sure we would sign him now if the juice was worth the squeeze. He’s just not worth it at this point.
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My point is that it’s going to take a lot more than Bellinger reverting to a league-average hitter for the Cubs to contend. Even his MVP self probably wouldn’t be enough - a lot of other inside straights have to be hit on the river.
If by "contend" you mean that they Cubs have a roster roughly equal in talent to the top 5 or 6 teams in baseball, I agree that they will not contend this year. However, there is no realistic way that they could have built that level of roster talent this offseason.
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I think if if Bellinger has a decent/solid year offensively (very iffy, I realize), then I believe aspiring to wild-card realm is plausible.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc
Above are team batting stats.
1. 12 teams get into playoffs; the #12 team offense had an OPS of .705. The wildcard bar isn't THAT high.
3. Only 7 teams had OPS ≥740.
So *IF* you had a bunch of ≥.740-OPS guys, you should have a shot.
1. Catching, we know that will be bad. That's going to drag the team numbers for sure.
2. Bellinger, huge wildcard. If he's a big drag, that's going to drag the team. But if he's fine, or is ≥.740, he may even be an asset offensively.
3. I'm going to cheat here. But using the .740 threshold, consider which guys either have career over .740 or were over .740 last year:
*Non-catcher Starters: Happ (.781 last year, .798 career), Bellinger (.819 career), Suzuki (.770), Wisdom (.760 career, .725 last year), Swanson (.776), Hoerner (.736), Hosmer (.764 career, .716 last year), Mancini (.787 career).
*Of course catcher will stink.
*Subs: Morel (.741). Given the minor-league season that Mervis had, I'm pretty optimistic that he can be ≥.740 as a rookie? Madrigal, .692 career, but ≥.745 both seasons with Sox. A hope is that by summer, Brennen Davis will be good enough for ≥.740.
Given those guys, and that the #12 team-OPS was only .705, I don't see why it's the implausible to think that the Cubs offense, as a collective, might finish ≥.705. With good defense and possibly good pitching, I think being a top-12 wildcard-type team overall is within realistic reach.
We know it's baseball. Bellinger might be .542, not .742. Wisdom might dive to .600, and Morel. What we saw from Madrigal might be Madrigal forever. Hosmer might be so cooked, he might never see .720 again. Mancini the same. But assuming the worst for everybody is no more probable than assuming the best for everybody.
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Two fundamental questions.
1. Will the offense be so bad that you can't win with it, no matter how good the run-prevention?
2. Will the pitching/defense actually be good, enough to win with an average/decent offense? M's, Padres, and Guardians got in with the 14, 15, 16 team OPS's. (Padres .700, Guardians .699).
Hoyer thinks his pitching/defense and run-prevention might be deep and be an asset. Possible, for sure. But no guarantee. It's possible we'll have an average or perhaps top-12 offense, and it will be the pitching that keeps us out.
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Given the minor league season that Mervis just had, I can't believe he's not our starting 1Bman this season...and really can't believe he's headed back to Iowa...
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Given the minor league season that Mervis just had, I can't believe he's not our starting 1Bman this season...and really can't believe he's headed back to Iowa...
It's a long season.
If Mervis picks up where he left off at Iowa, plenty of time to get him ABs in majors. The 1B is a minimum salary guy on a 1-year deal and the DH is coming off a poor showing to end last season. Seems unlikely that guys will be blocking Mervis if he hits.
Wouldn't be too concerned about opening day roster compared to season as a whole.
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Sometimes GM's are devious, maybe there are serious concerns about his major level abilities and will send him down where he will continue to rake and increase trade value.
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...maybe there are serious concerns about his major level abilities ....
Man, I sure hope not. You build a good roster one good player at a time. *IF* Mervis has serious concerns, and is going to be the next Hoffpauir or a young version of Schwindel, that would be such a bummer. Would be so valuable if the farm system could produce a power hitter who could really mash and who you'd like being in your lineup.
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Man, I sure hope not. You build a good roster one good player at a time. *IF* Mervis has serious concerns, and is going to be the next Hoffpauir or a young version of Schwindel, that would be such a bummer. Would be so valuable if the farm system could produce a power hitter who could really mash and who you'd like being in your lineup.
I never got the feeling that the Cubs were all-in on Mervis as a prospect TBH. The scouting consensus on him is decidedly mixed, so it’s not surprising.
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I agree, just aware that some general managers agents scheme; we aren't privy to their machinations.
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42 home runs last season, with a .300 average and a .370 OBP…
I liked Hoffpauir a lot, if you squinted hard enough, you could see a poor man’s Mark Grace…and Frank the Tank was a lot of fun for half a season, but they never put up numbers like Mervis did last season.
“If he hits…?” He has hit.
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42 home runs last season, with a .300 average and a .370 OBP…
I liked Hoffpauir a lot, if you squinted hard enough, you could see a poor man’s Mark Grace…and Frank the Tank was a lot of fun for half a season, but they never put up numbers like Mervis did last season.
“If he hits…?” He has hit.
Not big league pitching.
No one has until they get the chance, obviously. And Mervis will. But assessing those guys is why scouts get paid.
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But as you say, the scouting reports are mixed. Not unanimous.
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He’ll get his chance. Again, all this hand-wringing seems very over the top to me. If Mervis is any kind of player the likes of Hosmer and Mancini aren’t going to block him.
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I hope he tears it up in Arizona and makes it impossible to send him out.
I don’t like the message it sends.
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I think I read that Mancini's opt out triggers at 350 PA. If they're putting incentives in a contract at 350 PA, the Cubs have no intention of making him a full time player.
Hosmer is basically the equivalent of a minor league invite with a famous name. If Mervis hits in spring training, Hosmer isn't taking ABs from him.
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They may also be trying to put off rostering Mervis for as long as possible.
I do think the Cubs will start Mervis at Iowa and try to see what they have in Hosmer and Mancini. But it wouldn’t take much for me to see a scenario where all three of them get major ABs. If Happ or Suzuki miss any time Mancini will play a lot of OF, and if Wisdom just plain sucks he’s not going to be taking ABs from anybody. One of that trio will likely be the 1B and one the DH a vast majority of the time, at the very least.
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I think if if Bellinger has a decent/solid year offensively (very iffy, I realize), then I believe aspiring to wild-card realm is plausible.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc
Above are team batting stats.
1. 12 teams get into playoffs; the #12 team offense had an OPS of .705. The wildcard bar isn't THAT high.
3. Only 7 teams had OPS ≥740.
So *IF* you had a bunch of ≥.740-OPS guys, you should have a shot.
1. Catching, we know that will be bad. That's going to drag the team numbers for sure.
2. Bellinger, huge wildcard. If he's a big drag, that's going to drag the team. But if he's fine, or is ≥.740, he may even be an asset offensively.
3. I'm going to cheat here. But using the .740 threshold, consider which guys either have career over .740 or were over .740 last year:
*Non-catcher Starters: Happ (.781 last year, .798 career), Bellinger (.819 career), Suzuki (.770), Wisdom (.760 career, .725 last year), Swanson (.776), Hoerner (.736), Hosmer (.764 career, .716 last year), Mancini (.787 career).
*Of course catcher will stink.
*Subs: Morel (.741). Given the minor-league season that Mervis had, I'm pretty optimistic that he can be ≥.740 as a rookie? Madrigal, .692 career, but ≥.745 both seasons with Sox. A hope is that by summer, Brennen Davis will be good enough for ≥.740.
Given those guys, and that the #12 team-OPS was only .705, I don't see why it's the implausible to think that the Cubs offense, as a collective, might finish ≥.705. With good defense and possibly good pitching, I think being a top-12 wildcard-type team overall is within realistic reach.
We know it's baseball. Bellinger might be .542, not .742. Wisdom might dive to .600, and Morel. What we saw from Madrigal might be Madrigal forever. Hosmer might be so cooked, he might never see .720 again. Mancini the same. But assuming the worst for everybody is no more probable than assuming the best for everybody.
I think that would be easier if you had a couple of guys that were really great hitters. The problem is the Cubs some guys that are going to be around league average and having even 1-2 guys well below average can really pull that OPS down.
Ilwhen you were talking about team OPS you really need to use the adjusted stats. The Cubs and Padres had team OPS that where close last year, but when you use the adjusted stats had a large difference.
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I have no problem if the Cubs decide that Mervis is not ready, and send him down.
I have no problem if the Cubs decide that Mervis IS ready, and install him as the regular first baseman/DH.
But the worst thing they can do is bring him up to the majors and then play him once a week.
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Or what the Cubs are famous for, take a guy who hit 4 for 4 with a home run and 5 RBI, and sit him for three days.
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They may also be trying to put off rostering Mervis for as long as possible.....
If he finishes in the top-3 for NL ROY, the Cubs will get an extra draft pick between rounds 1 and 2.
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Exactly…if it is determined that there’s even an outside shot at that happening, we need to get him on the field to see.
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If he finishes in the top-3 for NL ROY, the Cubs will get an extra draft pick between rounds 1 and 2.
Doesn’t the CBA specify that they have to be included on two of the broadly quoted preseason top 100 prospect lists?
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Mooney:
The Cubs claimed right-handed pitcher Julian Merryweather off waivers from the Blue Jays and DFA’d right-handed pitcher Manuel Rodríguez to make room on the 40-man roster.
Throws hard but otherwise not much obvious to get excited about there.
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Craig will be crushed by the Rodriguez DFA.
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Merryweather is a former Indians farmhand. I presume Hawkins has some degree of familiarity with him.
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BOO! BOO! BOO! I hate it. I hope Manny goes unclaimed. Somebody else with a good pitch lab is maybe going to get his breaking ball cleaned up, and he's going to be useful.
Hopefully his injury history will cause him to go unclaimed, the Cubs will get his breaking ball locating, and he'll be good for us.
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Did a post 3 months ago about Rodriguez and noted dearth of swinging strikes against him. Plus not a command guy either, of course.
A few years ago, a guy with his velo at this stage of development would not be DFAed. But, now, lots of relievers in baseball with his velo. So, doesn’t stand out as much.
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I remember that post, reb, and don't dispute the low-swinging-strike state. But he's been a high-K guy in minors, and my assumption is that those were largely on his hard breaking ball. Which pitch was so off with the Cubs, hitters were rarely even tempted.
My hypothesis is that coming back healthy and settled in, that his breaking ball might not be five feet wild and temptation-free. *IF* his breaking ball is more consistently in the neighborhood, and fastballs aren't the only strikes he ever throws or the only pitches guys ever swing at, that his results might look dramatically different. But, maybe that's just wishful thinking.
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Somewhere in the Dakotas:
(https://i0.wp.com/kmshea.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/sad-panda.jpg?ssl=1)
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Merryweather is a nice pickup. The Blue Jays once upon a time wanted him to win the closer spot ahead of Jordan Romano. He could be really good if he stays away from injuries.
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As JR notes, Merryweather opened the 2021 season as Jays closer, with Romano setting up for Merryweather.
First series of 2021 season, Jays opened in Yankee Stadium and Merryweather was spectacular saving both Jays wins with two 1-2-3 ninth innings and striking out 5 of the 6 batters he faced. Then got hurt and didn’t get back to majors until September.
https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2021/04/14/blue-jays-closer-julian-merryweather-placed-on-il-with-oblique-strain/
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Interesting that the other reliever Cubs claimed from Jays three weeks ago, Anthony Kay, is still on the 40-man and Cubs have instead DFAed Leiter Jr. and Manny Rodriguez rather than making a move with Kay.
Presumably, Cubs will sign another reliever and likely have to move out another reliever currently on the 40-man.
Would think that Rucker might be the guy?
And, of course, Cubs still have to open a 40-man spot for Mancini whenever that becomes official. That possibly could be a reliever too, unless Cubs make a trade of some kind with a position player.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/how-cubs-envision-nick-madrigal-fitting-into-2023-roster-puzzle/
After checking some interviews and convention reports, I've been surprised how Madrigal has been mentioned several times In this report, Hoyer says that he should have gone to extended spring training. But in reference to Madrigal "he’s a really good hitter, really good player.". In a different interview, Ross was asked about leadoff. He didn't have much of a strong answer, but in addition to mentioning Happ and Swanson, he also mentioned Madrigal.
Reality will tell it's own story, of course. And often the GM who trades for a guy believing he's a really good hitter, a really good player, is the last to change his opinion and recognize he was wrong. But yeah, Hoyer and Ross don't sound like guys who actually considered releasing Madrigal this winter. Will be interesting to see if Madrigal does anything to vindicate their support.
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It would be pretty dumb for the Cubs not to talk up Madrigal at this point, since the ultimate plan is clearly to try and get something of value for him in trade. They’re committed to other players in the middle IF and he’ll never really make sense as a bench piece.
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Presumably, Cubs will sign another reliever and likely have to move out another reliever currently on the 40-man.
One other possibility is that they don't sign anybody else until after the start of spring training. At that point, they can move Heuer, Roberts, and Canario to the 60-day IL, opening up some slots.
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The Cubs' bullpen seems pretty unsettled right now, but it seems like we're building up some really nice depth going into the season. There could be a lot of velocity coming between guys like Alzolay, Merryweather, and Wick along with guys like Thompson and Kilian if they lose out on the 5th rotation spot. Heuer coming back from Tommy John would also be bringing a lot of heat once he's ready to go during the season. Brad Boxberger would be the softest tossing guy of the bunch, but he's still a good strikeout pitcher.
I wonder if Kilian might be underutilized as a short reliever, but he seems like a guy who could be really good if he gets converted to relief. Considering the iffy season he had last year, that might be something that needs a longer look.
Andrew Chafin definitely looks like a guy who would make a lot of sense to pair with Brandon Hughes from the left side. If we got Chafin and Michael Fulmer for some end of the game veteran presence, the bullpen really could be a nice source of strength for us.
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Andrew Chafin definitely looks like a guy who would make a lot of sense to pair with Brandon Hughes from the left side. If we got Chafin and Michael Fulmer for some end of the game veteran presence, the bullpen really could be a nice source of strength for us.
There's probably not enough money left for even one of them, let alone both.
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One other possibility is that they don't sign anybody else until after the start of spring training. At that point, they can move Heuer, Roberts, and Canario to the 60-day IL, opening up some slots.
Jeff, how soon after camp opens can they do that? Like, second day? So the Sheriff could essentially have a deal fully prepared, and he could already be in Mesa, and could already have taken his physical, and then have the deal finalized and announced Day 2 and all would be OK?
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Jeff, how soon after camp opens can they do that? Like, second day? So the Sheriff could essentially have a deal fully prepared, and he could already be in Mesa, and could already have taken his physical, and then have the deal finalized and announced Day 2 and all would be OK?
I don't know, Craig. I don't know if the league office would get involved if they sensed some chicanery afoot.
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Even if Hendricks is not ready, the starting rotation will be as follows:
Tailon, Stroman, Smiley, Steele, and one of the following:
Wesneski, Alzolay, Thompson, Assad, Sampson.
Whoever it is, that leaves 4 long/middle relievers, for a total of 9 pitchers.
Wick Boxberger and Hughes are certain to make the club, for a total of 12 pitchers.
That leaves only one reliever spot open, with Merryweather being the most likely right now, but a whole slew of likely callups during the season.
I don't think that adding a reliever is really a priority right now, unless you think the success of the season depends upon adding a lefty to the bullpen.
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Dave, I think it's highly unlikely that Assad makes the team. Very possibly only one of Wesneski/Sampson.
I'm expecting one more veteran RP addition.
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According to Roster Resource, Cubs are a bit less than $12 under CBT threshold.
Guessing that Chafin probably bring Cubs too close to the CBT. Perhaps Matt Moore more likely?
Jeff raised a good point that a spring training signing—after 60-day IL becomes available—is conceivable. Maybe when we get closer to that date, becomes more of a possibility if guys still available.
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According to Roster Resource, Cubs are a bit less than $12 under CBT threshold.
Reb, one thing that these payroll accounting websites (along with my own buildup) don't account for is bonuses. The team needs to make some allowance for potentially paying performance bonuses. Barnhart has some. Mancini, too. I'm not sure whether these always get announced publicly.
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Yeah, another good point, Jeff.
Kinda doubt that any addition(s) from this point will total more than $5-6.
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Yeah, another good point, Jeff.
Kinda doubt that any addition(s) from this point will total more than $5-6.
I agree with that.
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Dave, I think it's highly unlikely that Assad makes the team. Very possibly only one of Wesneski/Sampson.
I'm expecting one more veteran RP addition.
I agree. But I think it is also quite likely that he returns during the season, along with Estrada and the best of Sanders, Kilian and a couple more AAA and AA starters/relievers.
And I also expect that they will sign one more reliever, and I would love for it to be a good one such as Chafin. But if he does well, I hope that they will trade him at the deadline, and replace him from the farm system.
The Cubs have had a good track record of salvaging relievers and flipping them at the deadline. I hope that is something they continue to do regardless of their midseason record.
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According to Roster Resource, Cubs are a bit less than $12 under CBT threshold.
Guessing that Chafin probably bring Cubs too close to the CBT. Perhaps Matt Moore more likely? ...
Moore is a wildman, not sure I'm too interested, myself. Jeff and reb, how much are you thinking Chafin is going to cost? You don't think more than $5-6 left to spend. Unless bonuses are the issue, wouldn't that leave almost $7 unspent? Enough to pick up a $20M guy at the deadline? I wonder if adding a consistent good pitcher like Chafin, if I'd not be more willing to do that and leave a little less for the deadline?
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I wonder if the lux line needs to be a fixed fear point? Sure, doesn't make sense to pass it now, if as we're as likely to lose 88 games as to win 88.
But *IF* the season is going well, fans are excited, Bellinger and Brennen and Mervis are looking really good, might Hoyer not change his lux-line tune then? Might he not say, "we've got a shot to not just get into the playoffs but actually be pretty competitive, let's go over the line and make some noise? The financial penalties for going a couple million over are insignificant..."
That could be impacted too by how our young players are looking. If Heyward, Hendricks, Stroman, and Bellinger are all coming off the books, maybe Stroman too, maybe Happ too.... and *IF* it's looking like Brennan and PCA and young pitchers are more than ready to replace them, perhaps you figure even if you fly past the lux line this year, that you're going to go with your prospects and slide back under next anyway?
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Jeff and reb, how much are you thinking Chafin is going to cost?
Chafin signed a $13/2 deal last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he got $18/2 or higher.
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Matt Strahm got 2/$15 this off-season and Chafin is going to do better than that.
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Going over the Lux tax line the first time is not much of a problem, other than the loss of IFA money. But going over the second year in a row gets extremely expensive, and going over it for the third year in a row can be devestating. That is why both the Dodgers and the Yankees, who have more money than God, trim their salary in the third year.
Since almost all teams avoid going over it three times in a row, then it makes sense to hold back on that first year until it is worth while. Why waste that first year when you will have no reasonable chance to be a top tier team? You then have only two years at best before you have to cut back substantially. That is a big problem if your goal is to be a top tier team over a longer period of time.
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Leiter cleared waivers, interestingly. Outrighted to Iowa.
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Now he has an opportunity to decline the outright assignment and elect free agency.
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Mancini official, Kay designated for assignment.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/cubs-designate-anthony-kay-for-assignment.html
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Kay DFA’d, can Julian Merryweather be far behind? Seems like most of these waiver grabs end up guys the Cubs try and sneak through waivers themselves eventually.
Isn’t Julian Merryweather the name of the guy on the Monopoly box?
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Frank Merrywell, all american hero.
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...The Cubs have had a good track record of salvaging relievers and flipping them at the deadline. ...
This is true. But I think Hoyer is in a different place this round, and can't do it like he did before. We remember the hits, but don't remember Daniel Norris and Jesse Chavez (last year) or Rex Brothers, Daniel Workman, Dan Winkler, and Alec Mills being given roster-spots two years ago. We don't have the same space on the 40- or the 26-man rosters now. Plus I think Hoyer wants to win this year, so may not wanting to be giving 2-4 spots to Norris-Workman types.
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He has signed several already. Boxberger and Merryweather on the 40, and Borucki, Neidert, Elias and Stout to minor league contracts and most with NRI to spring training. They can now evaluate them during spring training and promote any that they think deserve at the appropriate time. I expect them to sign at least a couple more before spring training. And then scour the waiver wire when other teams release players at the end of the spring. There are always more misses than hits, but the misses are essentially free, while the hits are free money, so to speak.
If they can get a Sampson or two to be a long term part of the team, or flip them for someone with more potential, every little bit helps.
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Yeah, I think there's a big difference between the non-roster guys who you can park at Iowa, versus guys who are given big-league roster spots.
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I agree. But there still may be room for a Marten type reliever that can both help the team and be flipped in mid season when they have more information about potential replacements from Iowa.
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There's probably not enough money left for even one of them [Chafin or Fullmer], let alone both.
May not be those guys. But Hoyer has been talking bullpen since the season ended; long after Boxberger, and he continued to be referencing bullpen at convention. I don't think he was just talking about non-rosters and waiver claims.
Not sure who, and perhaps I'll be disappointed. But I think he still expects to sign a non-minimum FA to a roster spot.
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Adbert Alzolay seems to have a pretty strong preference to be a reliever. And he seems particularly excited about the idea of being a closer.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1616863618015928321
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He may well be able to perform as a closer, but I doubt that he can beat Estrada for the job.
I have no problem using him as a long reliever for a while, but I hate to see someone that has the ability to be a good starter wasted in the bull pen. If he can't do it, that is fine, but I would like to see him have a legitimate trial as a starter before he hits free agency, for his sake as well as the Cubs.
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2023 will be Alzolay’s ELEVENTH season as a Cubs prospect. He turns 28 in a few weeks.
I say enough is enough trying to develop him as a starting pitcher. With his inability to stay healthy and his big lefty/righty splits, Cubs are doing the right thing using him out of the bullpen.
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...someone that has the ability to be a good starter...
The problem is - how do you define this?
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When you are talking about potential, it is always subjective. Some say that if you only have two effective pitches, you should be a reliever. But that doesn't seem to hold true in all cases.
My point is that an effective starter is so much more valuable than a effective reliever (if for no other reason than he throws more innings, someone that has good stuff should have to prove that he can not be an effective starter. He was one in the minors until he was derailed by substantial health problems. I would like to see if he can be one again.
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Mark Leiter Jr. elected free agency.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/01/23/cubs-roster-move-mark-leiter-jr-clears-waivers-outrighted-to-iowa-now-has-a-choice/
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https://theathletic.com/4119041/2023/01/24/trey-mancini-chicago-cubs/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Hadn't realized Baltimore had raised their LF wall by 6 feet plus moved it back almost 30 before last year, so became tough place for RH HR-hitters.
Mancini seems fine with playing different positions, but with 1B/LF as your primary non-DH spots, how many LF starts will there be barring a Happ injury?
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Cubs sign Jordan Holloway.
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Anthony Kay and Manny Rodriguez both cleared waivers and have been outrighted to Iowa.
Neither can deny the assignment…
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In Anthony Kay’s case, Cubs were able to “sneak” him thru waivers.
Rodriguez got thru waivers in the conventional way.
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How does the sneak way difer from the conventional way?
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I think the Cubs were somehow kinda confident they'd keep these two? Both were bought to the convention and introduced on stage etc. I wouldn't have thought you'd do that for guys you expect to be gone in a few days. Given our poverty of LH relievers, Kay won't need to be great to get a shot. Manny, time to stay healthy for 10 months, and to get that breaking ball under some semblance of control. Getting some command of the fastball wouldn't hurt, either! Would be super fun if he gets locked in and when we see him next, he looks like a keeper.
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Matt Barnes DFA's by the Red Sox. He seems to be the perfect addition for the Cubs. He is a former Red Sox (Theo pick) and his salary will be the league minimum. Jed is probably having naughty dreams about this.
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Matt Barnes DFA's by the Red Sox. He seems to be the perfect addition for the Cubs. He is a former Red Sox (Theo pick) and his salary will be the league minimum. Jed is probably having naughty dreams about this.
I don’t think Jed has naughty dreams about anything except double-coupon days at Target.
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The Cubs signed former Seattle catcher Luis Torrens to a minor league deal. There's probably a nonzero chance he's the best offensive catcher we have going in to the spring.
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I actually rostered him in our fantasy league for a good while.
I would never have done that with Gomes or Barnhart.
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The Cubs signed former Seattle catcher Luis Torrens to a minor league deal. There's probably a nonzero chance he's the best offensive catcher we have going in to the spring.
And that chance is close to 100% - last year he OPS'd close to .700. 700!
The problem is Torrens isn't really a catcher at the major league level, he's a DH. He's an emergency catcher in effect.
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Sinclair's RSN's are going bankrupt.
https://www.nexttv.com/news/its-on-bally-sports-rsns-headed-for-bankruptcy
It doesn't make a mention of what will happen to Marquee, the Cardinals are mentioned as a team that will have a large loss in revenue.
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Couldn't happen to nicer and more deserving people.
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I read something yesterday that we're still after a closer and another bat.
I will say Im intrigued by Alzolay closing.
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I read something yesterday that we're still after a closer and another bat....
Not sure I see where a bat would fit, exactly? Or with much urgency? Suppose Hosmer as starting 1B.
Premise: Mancini, Barnhart, Morel, and Madrigal. That leaves just one bench spot.
1. Current options: Mervis, McKinstry, Mastrobuoni, Velasquez, Hill, Bote.
2. I don't see much urgency for some outside vet?
Madrigal and Morel have options, and HOyer seems veteran-obsessed. So maybe he wants to send them down to have options-flexibility? So, maybe my premise is faulty?
*IF* looking outside, what would he target?
1. 3B, good enough to platoon with or compete with Wisdom?
2. Generic utility LH infielder?
3. RH outfielder with platoon-CF capacity?
I just don't see much urgency here, at the FA level, given the little cash Hoyer has left, and given the lack of FA options at low price.
A trade might be different, but off-season trades don't seem to be in the Hoyer/Theo playbook.
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I read something yesterday that we're still after a closer and another bat....
It's a given he's going to add at least one big-league reliever. This suggestion is "closer", others have suggested lefty. Don't think cash for both a "closer"-candidate RHP and a could-be-pretty-good lefty.
Unless he's going to sign a good lefty as closer, I'm guessing it's one or the other.
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Source: The Cubs are adding pitcher Tyler Duffey as a non-roster invite who will compete for a bullpen job in spring training. Duffey made 295 appearances for the Twins across the last eight seasons, and the Cubs have a good track record with those types of free-agent relievers.
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Duffey is a nice no-risk pickup. Last year was bad, but he was solid in 2019-2021. Vulnerability is the HR.
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Of the relievers still on the market, kind of intrigued by Michael Fulmer—who has been mentioned by some here.
Has turned into a heavy slider guy (65%) as a reliever, with a very low barrel% last season. Still doesn’t throw enough strikes. View him as an upside guy—maybe a potential closer—but risky as he seems to be remaking himself as a reliever and could go south.
Hard to put a total dollar value on Fulmer given the upside/risk but he might be my choice among the guys still out there.
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Agree, reb. Fulmer would be a nice guy to add. He's stacked a couple of solid years, and I agree has some upside to be a little better. Not quite 30, so *IF* you add him and he's good, you could have a good player for a while. Hoyer may feel different, but I would not be obsessed with one-year-only contract.
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Madrigal and Morel have options, and HOyer seems veteran-obsessed.
Your comment startled me, since the way I read his performance since he took office, to me he seems "farm system" obsessed. Almost all of his trades have been veterans (Darvish, Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, and for that matter, all of the relievers in the past 3 years have been veterans for farm hands.
Certainly, most off his lesser acquisitions have been for veterans, but if very few cases did he have a farm hand ready to come up. But when he did, he did not seem reluctant to use bring up and use Wisdom, Morel, Velasquez, along with Thompson, Hughes, Effross and Roberts.
It may be that, like me, you have doubts about whether he might give in to the temptation of trading Canario, Mervis, PCA, Alcantara, Cassie, etc., for vets that can perform sooner, or with more certainty, rather than take chances on prospects with a higher ceiling, but a less secure floor. I keep hoping that my fears are from decades of Cub front office stupidity, rather than the track record of Hoyer. His treatment of Mervis may give us more information.
But in the meantime, bringing in tons of free agent relievers, sorting out the ones that succeed and then flipping them, seems like a decent way to pass the time.
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Dave, Hoyer wants to do some winning this year. So I think he's into stocking-vets mode. Not with the intention of adding sign-and-trade guys, but just to try to win more this season, and perhaps get into the playoffs.
Scenarios change. If we're losing come July, vets will get traded and retrospect will suggest sign-and-trade was always the intent. But right now, Hoyer is trying to win.
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Interesting and unconventional article on the role "mental wellness" played on Dansby Swanson's improvement as a player and rise as a leader.
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http://bbf.createaforum.com/index.php?action=post;topic=612.1650;last_msg=467363
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Baseball season's getting awful close.
We still need a closer.
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Espinosa, if they think he is ready.
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Espinosa, if they think he is ready.
Estrada.
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All those Latinos sound alike.
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Yes…Estrada…
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I thought this was a very good interview with Jed Hoyer, including self-reflection about what he learned from the years after the 2016 season.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-show-a-ny-post-baseball-podcast-with-joel/id1623601003
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I thought this was a very good interview with Jed Hoyer, including self-reflection about what he learned from the years after the 2016 season.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-show-a-ny-post-baseball-podcast-with-joel/id1623601003
I was kind of puzzled by Hoyer’s comments that maybe Cubs should have been more active right after 2016 season.
Cubs made the major trade for Quintana in July 2017. The mistake wasn’t inaction but rather failing to scout Quintana more accurately as Quintana got off to a disappointing start in 2017 with Sox——and Cubs evidently thought that was an anomaly. It wasn’t.
Seems like with 20-20 hindsight, that’s pretty clear.
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Baseball season's getting awful close.
We still need a closer.
It may be that some players will feel the clock ticking, too? Fulmer or Chafin and Moore, maybe the longer it goes, the more they want to know where they're going, and are willing to compromise on what they've been demanding but nobody in the league has been offering?
(Or, as Jeff has mentioned, maybe Chafin has got an informal determination already, and is just waiting for camp to open and for Ethan Roberts to be placed on the 60-day IR.).
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Chafin seemed to want to be a Cub.
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Mark Leiter, Jr. is back with the Cubs on a minor league deal.
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Cubs are going to have an interesting time deciding who to keep on the MLB pitching staff out of spring training. With the exception of a clear cut closer, it looks like a rather crowed field. Guys with options left, such as Wesneski, who would have probably been a lock at this point in prior years, will probably be starting the year in Iowa.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-react-to-new-shift-rules?partnerId=zh-20230203-820465-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230203-820465-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=bjtloNEvmYLteLScjHeJ14I44IlHSeHXIL2lwug3dibkgGIPYYQ8ENgLz9k09Gxg&bt_ts=1675431241608
"MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello has examined how the shift could help and hurt some batters .-- Mike sent over some numbers on how the shift rules could impact the Cubs.
-His calculations gave Happ an extra seven hits from the left side. Last year,
-Bellinger gains four hits, while
-Hosmer gains three hits."
Shift talk much-ado-about-not-very-much? If Petriello's calculations are accurate, 3-7 extra singles for lefties, that's a pretty modest impact. Using 500AB as a round number, adding 3-4 singles is adding 6-8 points to batting average and OBP. Not sure a 6-point jump in OBP really changes the game much.
*IF* a guy like Happ adds 7 extra singles, 7 singles could bump his average/OBP by 14 points, bump his slugging by 14 points, and bump his OPS by 28 points. So 28 OPS points would help. At .781OPS last year and .798 career, add an extra 28 points bumps him over .800. So that might be kinda fun.
Not to pick on poor Hosmer, but he is quoted with "There's no worse feeling than hitting the ball hard up the middle and seeing the shortstop standing right there." Um, Eric, the shift rule won't change THAT scenario at all!
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Not to pick on poor Hosmer, but he is quoted with "There's no worse feeling than hitting the ball hard up the middle and seeing the shortstop standing right there." Um, Eric, the shift rule won't change THAT scenario at all!
That would require Hosmer to actually hit the ball hard on a consistent basis.
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https://baseball.realgm.com/wiretap/55587/Kodai-Senga-Had-Concerning-Physical-Before-Signing-With-Mets
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But Dusty's a racist dumbass.
Please line up and apologize one by one.
Ill accept it humbly.
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I don't think you're a racist.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoS7oXUXEAIBRTk?format=jpg&name=small)
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I believe that 60-day IL becomes available on 2/15 when pitchers and catchers report.
As there is typically a lag of several days from reports that Player X “to sign with” a club and the later “official” club-announced signing, we’re getting close to a date when another FA might reportedly come to an agreement with Cubs without Cubs having to DFA a current 40-man player. So, that’s a good thing.
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Yahoo Sports College Football @YahooSportsCFB
Northwestern will host Iowa at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Nov. 4, the school announced.
Game 7 of the World Series would be on November 4 this year, so I guess the Cubs are assuming they won't be hosting a game on that day (or even earlier in the week--I'm assuming it takes at least a few days to set up a football field at Wrigley).
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The World Series should never go into November to begin with.
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Bummer. Northwestern will have to forfeit.
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I believe that 60-day IL becomes available on 2/15 when pitchers and catchers report.
As there is typically a lag of several days from reports that Player X “to sign with” a club and the later “official” club-announced signing, we’re getting close to a date when another FA might reportedly come to an agreement with Cubs without Cubs having to DFA a current 40-man player. So, that’s a good thing.
Thanks, reb. Yeah, at this point it would be unwise to formally/administratively finalize a deal prior to the 60-day date. I wonder if Hoyer has a deal (or more) all done and ready, just waiting for that date?
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My guess is that he already has one or two lined up. But I suspect that they will not be what we would consider impact signings. Other than a closer, they already have a rather deep middle relief bench.
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Ken Giles will be throwing a bullpen for interested teams this tomorrow at ASU in Tempe 9:15-10 am. Medicals will be provided upon request. 15 plus teams are expected.
Giles seems like he could be the 2023 version of David Robertson. Both have always been really good relievers. Like Robertson at this time last year, Giles is two years past TJ surgery and only threw a handful of innings in his first year back. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs go pretty strong after him if he looks good tomorrow.
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How old?
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Instead of signing Ken Giles, Jed would be better off putting a loaded revolver in his mouth and pulling the trigger.
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Giles was really good in 2019. So, “due diligence” is scouting his workout. Why not.
He’s 32, so exactly 1/3 of Curt’s age.
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Giles was really good in 2019. So, “due diligence” is scouting his workout. Why not.
He’s 32, so exactly 1/3 of Curt’s age.
Closer to 1/4.
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Reb and davep, you're both lucky that they weren't teaching fractions yet when I was in school or I might be pi$$ed.
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Not teaching them? They hadn't even invented them?
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Teach them? Why would I teach lies? They say that 1/3 is bigger than 1/4. Ridiculous. 4 is bigger than 3.
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Mooney: "The Cubs ..... while planning to add another reliever before the first formal workout for pitchers and catchers next week in Arizona."
Nothing new there, just a reminder how routinely assumed it is to add a reliever.
Past gold glove is not a great reflection of present defense for old guys. But Mooney notes that the Cubs will have ex-gold-glove guys at 9 positions, by including Stroman at pitcher, Hosmer at 1st, and Barnhart at catcher.
Pitching and defense should be the roster’s strengths with an Opening Day alignment that could feature six Gold Glove winners at nine positions: Marcus Stroman, Tucker Barnhart, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ and Eric Hosmer.
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Teach them? Why would I teach lies? They say that 1/3 is bigger than 1/4. Ridiculous. 4 is bigger than 3.
The educational level of the Lutheran community was greatly affected by your retirement.
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The educational level of the Lutheran community was greatly affected by your retirement.
Yes, nearly a third of them closed. I was worried that a much greater fourth of them were in danger.
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ZIPS gives the Cubs a better projection than Steamer.
Cardinals: 91-71
Brewers: 83-79
Cubs: 78-84
Reds: 70-92
Pirates: 68-94
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Itll take breakout years from Mervis and Davis to be a contender.
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Itll take breakout years from Mervis and Davis to be a contender.
Dansby Swanson doing damage on breaking balls
Mervis or Davis breaking out
Young pitching stepping up
Nico and Happ continuing with their breakouts
Bellinger being at least average on offense
Suzuki breaking out as well.
That is probably the minimum of what needs to happen to be a Wild Card team.
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….That is probably the minimum of what needs to happen to be a Wild Card team.
Winning the division is the best chance, seems to me——more so than Wild Card.
ZiPS seems light on the Phillies and Padres. See Cards winning fewer games than the three NL East clubs and Padres and Dodgers in West. And, Brewers seem kind of blah.
In any case, projections have a large component of idle chatter.
Happens every year: plenty of surprises. Play the games and see what happens.
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I think we could limit injuries if we just played the games on the computer. Fewer TJS situations, in the NBA fewer ACL's, in Football fewer concussions.
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Here's the reliever we've been expecting them to sign:
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Free-agent right-hander Michael Fulmer in agreement with Cubs, sources tell @TheAthletic.
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I think we could limit injuries if we just played the games on the computer. Fewer TJS situations, in the NBA fewer ACL's, in Football fewer concussions.
Yeah. But one computer crash could wipe out the entire season.
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So is Fulmer the closer or Boxberger?
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How much would you guess, br?
$4 with incentives for appearances and games finished that could take it to $7?
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Jeff, what are you thinking for length? I admit I'd actually like for a 2-year deal, in case he's good. The 1-year sign-and-trade deals are good during rebuilding. But for a 29-year-old, I'd kinda like to control him longer in case he ends up being solid.
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Why not longer? He seems like a good bet to be good. Possibly excellent.
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Jeff, I know you've posted this before, but how much space did you think they had below the lux line prior to Fulmer?
I appreciate that there isn't much. But I'm wondering whether there might be enough left to sign a low-end lefty still? Like, somebody who'd get a guaranteed deal with a promised spot on the 26-man roster, as opposed to a guy who isn't good enough to command more than a non-roster invite?
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Jeff, what are you thinking for length? I admit I'd actually like for a 2-year deal, in case he's good. The 1-year sign-and-trade deals are good during rebuilding. But for a 29-year-old, I'd kinda like to control him longer in case he ends up being solid.
Craig, based on what's been going on in the market, if it's two years, it might be with an opt out after the first year, a la Mancini.
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Jeff, I know you've posted this before, but how much space did you think they had below the lux line prior to Fulmer?
I appreciate that there isn't much. But I'm wondering whether there might be enough left to sign a low-end lefty still? Like, somebody who'd get a guaranteed deal with a promised spot on the 26-man roster, as opposed to a guy who isn't good enough to command more than a non-roster invite?
Craig, I had them at $10.5 under, pre-Fulmer. That did not account for any exposure resulting from performance-related incentive bonuses.
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Craig, I had them at $10.5 under, pre-Fulmer. That did not account for any exposure resulting from performance-related incentive bonuses.
I wonder how they think about the lux-line stuff. For example:
1. We cannot and will not go over. Even if we're having a stunning season and in first place at the deadline, we will not go over no matter what. Or
2. We don't want to plan to go over. But if we're hypothetically having a division-winning season because some guys are having great seasons and hitting incentives, we'll be happy to go over. If we're having a division-winning season with a chance to win a playoff series, maybe we'll also be willing to add more salary and go further over with deadline pickups?
If the latter mindset was at play, then you might bump closer against it pre-season. If the team is losing and selling, you can sell a contract or two at the deadline to ensure that you stay under. But *if* they are willing to go over if the team is actually winning, then maybe they'd be more willing to bump closer against it to start?
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I seem to remember comments by Hoyer to the effect that he would rather not go over the limit this year, because the penalty really kicks in in the second year, and he doesn't want to lose the flexibility a year too soon. But I assume that this is a "Miracle" year, that he would go over this summer.
I suspect that this summer the Cubs will still be sellers, when it comes to the relief staff. They should still have a deep bench down in Iowa, and probably will consider some of them to be replaceable.
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I wonder how they think about the lux-line stuff….
Roster Resource has Cubs $11.6 under CBT, pre-Fulmer.
As Jeff notes, perhaps fairly significant incentives with Fulmer based on games finished.
If that’s the case (maybe not the case, we’ll see), overall incentives to free agents signed could put Cubs close to CBT.
I also wonder if Cubs willing to go OVER CBT even now——before the season.
As Craig notes, If Cubs turn out to be good, maybe front office okay with going over——and maybe even add guys near trade deadline.
If Cubs not good, will trade off some guys to stay under or get under CBT, even if over CBT before opening day.
So, maybe CBT strategy is based on whether Cubs are good or not good. If that’s the strategy, maybe they will add a lefty in coming days. Maybe not a pricey Chafin, but a lefty closer to $5 or so. Can always get under CBT later by trading away some guys, if comes to that. If Cubs are good, they’ll go over later anyway by adding.
Or, maybe no way want to go over, period. Guessing this is not the case because incentives might put them over in any case and they’re not dumping guys at trade deadline if have legit post-season chance.
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How much would you guess, br?
$4 with incentives for appearances and games finished that could take it to $7?
That sounds low both in dollars and years.
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The Cubs have added two veterans this offseason in Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer and a plethora of non-roster arms. Boxberger has an extensive history of success and Fulmer is a more under-the-radar reliever who has looked strong after injuries sidetracked a promising start to his career as a starter. Even with the recent addition of Fulmer, it’s possible the Cubs aren’t quite done yet and could bring in a veteran lefty.--The Athletic
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/cubs-sign-michael-fulmer.html
Fulmer gets $4/1.
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Mooney says Fullmer will get a chance to close.
Perhaps incentives not yet reported. Will see if Jeff’s projection turns out exactly right or just spot-on.
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Hoyer on Mancini:
“He’ll be in the lineup almost every day.”
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If I were Rossie, I wouldn't be thrilled to hear that from Hoyer.
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He probably deserves to be in the lineup every day.
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A manager’s role in personnel decisions, including playing time, is WAY diminished compared to years past. Seems to be true just about everywhere in MLB.
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Whatever. Everybody knows that hope springs eternal, so hopeful things are said about everybody. And that while plans in February dictate plans in April, come May and beyond plans vary with performance.
I'm with Hoyer, Ross and Mancini: I hope he's good, and hits >.265 with >25 HR.
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Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
Follow
Teams that scouted free-agent reliever Zack Britton during his throwing session today in Florida, per source: Giants, Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/cubs-sign-michael-fulmer.html
Fulmer gets $4/1.
Wow, that's a bargain. And I don't even think Fulmer is all that.
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Willson seems to want to poke the Cubs fans a lot.
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Willson seems to want to poke the Cubs fans a lot.
Why the fans?
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No clue why.
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..Teams that scouted free-agent reliever Zack Britton during his throwing session today in Florida, per source: Giants, Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers.
Britton is lefty, so I'm sure Hoyer is looking at every left there is. I glanced at Britton's stats, and his 2019 K/BB, K/IP, BB/IP rates all bad, 53K/32BB/66IP. Yet rode a .226 BABIP to only 38H/66IP and 1.9 ERA.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/cubs-sign-michael-fulmer.html
Fulmer gets $4/1.
That seems very good value. I wonder what the incentives include? Hope he has a great season and earns every one of them.
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Video of Cliff Floyd talking hitting with Matt Mervis.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/ive-always-known-i-was-a-hitter-matt-mervis-wild-journey-from-offensive-afterthought-to-slugging-prospect/
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I like that, Ron. Not sure whether Mervis will have the quickness/agility to play 1B, or the quickness to hit big-league pitching. But listening to him talk about hitting was fun, seems like a really practical analyst. Not sure how many guys the Cubs have had lately that just love to talk about hitting.
I thought his comment about pitches in the inside slice was interesting and practical. It's one thing if a pitcher locates it where they want it; but what if he doesn't?
I imagine that's part of the challenge with minors versus majors. Fewer mistakes to drive.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-extension-talks-injury-updates-plus-a-special-locker/
Notes about Heuer, Roberts, and Hendricks. None close. Heuer is off a mound, close/far enough away that 60-day isn't absolutely certain. Hendricks might throw a bullpen soon, definitely will miss some time. Sounds like he's not a 60-day probable. Roberts 60-day for sure, and longer.
What other 60-day candidates do they have to create roster spots? Is that all?
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They could put Canario on it, if they absolutely needed to, although that would earn him big league service time, which would not be good for the club. Expect them to option Canario before they put him on an IL.
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So, Roberts provides the Fulmer spot.
Will need another to open the lefty-reliever spot. Whether a guy we sign now who's given a guaranteed big-league spot right away; of a non-roster lefty who gets added at the end of camp.
Could need a 3rd spot if Mervis was to win a job, or some other bullpen arm.
Heuer would seem a pretty obvious guy. Even if he could be back a little sooner than 60-days, there is no urgency to get him back ASAP. If he rehabs for 20 days longer than he actually needed, what's the harm?
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I think the next three slots needed will come in the following order, if and when needed.
1. Roberts to the 60 day DL
2. Heuer to the 60 day DL
3. Hendricks to the 60 day DL
One variable is if Merryweather stinks in ST and they decide to cut him. He has no options.
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Agree, Dave, if Merryweather doesn't look like he's worth keeping, he'd be an easy cut.
I'm guessing neither Hendricks nor Hoyer expect Kyle to be out as long as June. But once he starts throwing, who knows.
There is still Rucker, and McKinstry, and Mastrobuoni. No problem, really!
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Dumb Q: Can 60-day be retroactive or involve camp days? For example, if a guy can be placed on 60-day this week, could that mean he's eligible as early as mid-april? Or does it need to involve 60-days of the actual season?
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Craig, courtesy of Arizona Phil:
10. A player who is placed on the MLB 60-day Injured List during Spring Training must spend at least the first 60 days of the MLB regular season on the Injured List (the player cannot be reinstated any earlier than the 61st day of the MLB regular season).
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I would hesitate to put Heuer on the 60 if there’s any chance he’ll be ready sooner. We still have plenty of fringy guys on the 40 we wouldn’t miss.
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On The Show 23 Dansby Swanson is the Cubs best hitter.
Their 2nd best is...Christopher Morel.
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On The Show 23 Dansby Swanson is the Cubs best hitter.
Their 2nd best is...Christopher Morel.
You're a weird dude.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-nick-madrigal-at-third-base-ian-happ-talks-extension-plus-a-new-hairdo-in-camp/
“Yeah, he looks great,” Ross said. “The arm strength doesn’t seem to be a problem right off the [bat]. Nick’s looked really comfortable there so far. You can tell he’s taking some ground balls there. Ball’s carrying nicely, no fade on the ball as he throws across.”
I love spring training! :):)
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Cubs sign Edwin Rios to a major league deal.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/cubs-sign-edwin-rios-to-major-league-deal.html
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Print those World Series tickets!
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Rios is basically a LH Patrick Wisdom. They could end up being okay as a platoon at 3B.
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Rios is basically a LH Patrick Wisdom. They could end up being okay as a platoon at 3B.
Not a bad flyer by any means. Big power, prodigious K rate. The issue is that his defense at 3B is pretty brutal - worse than Wisdom for sure. He's ideally more a 1B/DH.
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At least there might be some upside there…I like the signing a lot.
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If he stays healthy, I would rather see him as the lefty side of the DH than Hosmer
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Looks good to me.
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Apparently, Rios has an option left too. So, some flexibility here.
Rios got the Ethan Roberts roster 60-day IL spot.
Would have thought that the Fulmer deal would be official by now. Assuming no hang-ups, guess he would get the Heuer 60-day spot.
And guessing that wherever Britton signs, it might be a minor league deal.
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Video of Cliff Floyd talking hitting prep with Trey Mancini.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/inside-the-unconventional-practice-routine-of-new-cubs-slugger-trey-mancini/
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After reading AZ Phil describe Edwin Rios as one of the worst defensive 3B he’d ever seen, I took a peak at Rios errors in his career at 3B, minors and majors.
Of course, fielding % might not reveal a lot, but a very bad fielding % with a ton of errors tells us something.
Rios—minors and majors combined—has committed 79 errors as a 3B in 281 games started (plus 34 partial games at 3B).
That’s a fielding % at 3B of .896.
That’s really bad.
Patrick Wisdom has a career fielding % at 3B—majors and minors—of .941, as a counter example.
A sub .900 fielding % is just not playable. So, Rios probably not really in the 3B mix, realistically.
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I remember David Kelton being really bad at 3B too way back in the day when he was a notable Cubs prospect. He's probably the worst I can remember seeing.
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Agree, Rios doesn't seem like much of a 3B option. Seems like a 1-tool player for the lefty DH/1B role: power, and that's it. A mega-K easy-out guy for good opposing pitchers, but once in a while runs into a pitch. HR is an efficient way to score, and sometimes power guys hit some in bunches and make a career, so I get it. Over his 260 career AB's, 20HR and 93K. Prorated to full-time regular AB, ≥500 in a season, he'd be a 200K/40HR type of guy.
Seems like an easy guy to release when you want a roster spot.
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I remember David Kelton being really bad at 3B too way back in the day when he was a notable Cubs prospect. He's probably the worst I can remember seeing.
Yeah, Kelton had a .887 career fielding % as a 3B.
Actually, I was at Kelton’s first major league start when Cubs played at Camden Yards in 2003. He played LF. Physically, Kelton really looked like a big leaguer.
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Luckily the NL has the DH now and IF Rios has that kind of power I dont think he'd be the first one in line to be an easy run off.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/spring-training-notebook-managements-message-to-cubs-players-recruiting-ohtani-and-a-new-reliever-in-tow/
Fulmer met in December with vice president of pitching Craig Breslow and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy, where they suggested some things he could work on in the offseason, before they made a decision on signing him. “That just goes a long way for me and my family, very genuine, very honest and I worked on those things right away,” Fulmer said. “When we got down to it, they talked their talk with the agents and stuff and it all worked out in the end. I told them after that zoom meeting that I wanted to be a Cub. I’m glad it worked out well for everybody and I’m just happy to be here.”
I kind of love these stories, and that Hottovy and Breslow are able to provide improvement ideas to pitchers that guys believe in and make then want to come here.
Hope he has a terrific season.
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https://theathletic.com/4235787/2023/02/20/cubs-payroll-tom-ricketts/
For pay article, Ricketts talking, including about payroll factors. Points of interest for me:
1. going over the line at trade deadline could be considered, depending on how the season goes. (An idea I've suggested before).
2. Ricketts doesn't seem committed to being a top-5 spender. Top 10, sure; but no comments indicating being at the very top.
3. He talks about consistency and being able to sustain. And he talks about competing for the division and competing to get into the playoffs on a regular basis. More be-competitive, get-in-pretty-consistently, and take-your-chances-once-in. I think competing with the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Pirates is not quite as ambitious as aspiring to be competing with the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.
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https://theathletic.com/4242306/2023/02/23/cubs-caleb-kilian-ryan-jensen/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Good stuff on Kilian, Jensen, and Leiter
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https://theathletic.com/4242306/2023/02/23/cubs-caleb-kilian-ryan-jensen/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Good stuff on Kilian, Jensen, and Leiter
Particularly impressive was Sharma's reference to "amuse-bouche" in his discussion of Ryan Jensen.
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Thanks for that helpful article, Dave. Good info. Hope springs eternal!
For non-subscribers, the Killian part was that he experienced knee pain that got worse during the season; his delivery and plant mechanics were out of whack resulting in control getting out of whack. Thinks resolved.
Jensen, sounds like everything reconstructed in his delivery, and repertoire revised as well.
Leiter, I'm not sure I'd even realized or remembered that we'd resigned him!
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Re: Kilian…I’m not sure why they didn’t just move him to development (or the IR) and let him work thru his injury and altered mechanics on the side, rather than in game situations. They did it with Jensen, why not Kilian?
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A kind of fun video with Joe Girardi and Tucker Barnhart talking about some catching techniques.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/behind-the-plate-with-tucker-barnhart-and-joe-girardi/
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Sharma has a pretty detailed article on how the Cubs and Cody Bellinger are working to get him back on track offensively.
https://theathletic.com/4246531/2023/02/24/cubs-cody-bellinger-hitting/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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I love spring training! Why not? A lot of hope-springs-eternal stories do turn out every year, for teams who have successful seasons. Why not for us?
Bellinger really is such a huge pivot-guy for how this season will go. If he's awful, hard to see the offense thriving. If he's OK, the offense may perhaps score enough runs to have a winning season. If he's actually kinda good, not .960-OPS good but >.750-OPS good, who knows?
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I love spring training! Why not? A lot of hope-springs-eternal stories do turn out every year, for teams who have successful seasons. Why not for us?
Bellinger really is such a huge pivot-guy for how this season will go. If he's awful, hard to see the offense thriving. If he's OK, the offense may perhaps score enough runs to have a winning season. If he's actually kinda good, not .960-OPS good but >.750-OPS good, who knows?
Bellinger being a .750 OPS guy is not enough to make this a good offense even through rose-colored spring training goggles.
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First spring training game tomorrow afternoon. Ross is going with what may very well be his "regular" lineup vs. RHP.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/02/24/tomorrows-spring-opener-starters-for-the-chicago-cubs/
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First spring training game tomorrow afternoon. Ross is going with what may very well be his "regular" lineup vs. RHP.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/02/24/tomorrows-spring-opener-starters-for-the-chicago-cubs/
I think Barnhart will get the bulk of the ABs against RHP (if it matters). And while Hosmer will probably start opening day, his leash is going to be pretty short with Rios on the roster and Mervis at Iowa.
Also, given the lack of better options I’d go with Morel at 3B over Wisdom against righties until he proves he’s the 2nd half guy from last year and not the 1st half guy.
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Yeah, that looks like the intended primary lineup vs RHP. Lot of games till we win the World Series in November, obviously, so Gomes won't start them all.
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Morel will end up our 3rd baseman and I dont expect Hosmer will be starting long either.
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Hendricks threw off the mount yesterday for a dozen pitches. All enthusiastic.
https://theathletic.com/4250416/2023/02/24/cubs-kyle-hendricks-shoulder-return/
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-lineup-for-spring-opener-and-kyle-hendricks-gets-back-on-the-mound/
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Did he deliver a sermon while he was up there?
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Interesting story from Jon Heyman on Taillon's decision to pick the Cubs over the Mets and the Phillies (who offered more money).
https://nypost.com/2023/02/25/cubs-jameson-taillon-believed-he-was-going-to-mets-as-free-agent/
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Where's the Today's Game thread? :):)
Cubs win, 10-8. Bote 3-run homer.
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Cubs out-total based 29-15 but Giants commit 6 errors.
New rules for 2024 should result in a forfeit loss when a club commits 6 errors in a game.
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The strike zone in today’s game brought back memories of Eric Gregg. Even Angel Hernandez thought it was bad…
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Aldo Soto
@AldoSoto21
Velocity isn't everything, but the Cubs have been lacking in that area. Nice to see several guys averaging 95mph+ today.
vs. DBacks
Kilian: 95mph (sinker)
Kay: 96mph (4S)
Jensen: 96.2mph (sinker)
Estrada: 95.3mph (4S)
Sanders: 95.1mph (sinker)
Holloway: 96.5mph (4S)
Brad
@ballskwok
AZ Phil says Nick Burdi hit 100 five times in today’s outing. Also, Julian Merryweather was up at 98. https://thecubreporter.com/comment/274472#comment-274472
Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
David Ross and Seiya Suzuki are both scheduled to talk tomorrow morning here in AZ about Suzuki’s oblique injury and him withdrawing from the WBC. twitter.com/iownjakesadly/…
That sounds not great.
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@ballskwok
AZ Phil says Nick Burdi hit 100 five times in today’s outing. Also, Julian Merryweather was up at 98. https://thecubreporter.com/comment/274472#comment-274472
Saw both their outings today.
Merryweather was very impressive. Gave up some soft contact but really good movement on his pitches. Given how he started 2021 season for Jays (as their closer) and seemingly healthy for now, guessing that Merryweather has pretty good chance to win a spot in opening day bullpen.
Burdi had little command or control today. Just pumps in the hard stuff wherever it goes. What an arm!…but at best is going to open at AAA or AA and maybe can stay healthy and become a factor at some point in season.
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Seiya Suzuki might be out a while.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/02/28/the-seiya-suzuki-injury-update-is-here-and-its-very-not-great/
Moderate oblique strain. No timetable for return.
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Huge opportunity for Tauchman…
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Seiya Suzuki might be out a while.
Yeah Suzuki has a moderate oblique strain. I imagine it sounds like he at least won't be ready for Opening Day since the mere mild version of an oblique injury is about a 4 week injury.
Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki has been diagnosed with a moderate left oblique strain, according to the team. There is no immediate timetable for his return to game action.
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Jurickson Profar anyone?
Or maybe Brennan Davis?
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Profar might mean Ricketts has to add to the payroll, so we can forget him.
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Zero interest in Profar.
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Can Mancini play RF?
That could be an opening for Mervis if he has a strong camp.
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Yes on Mancini. Ross says he' considering Mancini and Wisdom for right or one of the rookies.
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From ESPN
If Suzuki misses several weeks, the Cubs could use Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom in right field to open the 2023 season. Wisdom, primarily a third baseman, and Mancini could platoon depending on Ross' preference at designated hitter and first base.
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Big chance for Davis and Mervis here.
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Mervis just banged a curveball off the wall in LCF.
Brewers broadcast team commenting on how much he resembles Rizzo physically.
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Of course it’s only a few games so far, but Cubs seem serious about Madrigal at 3B——and he seems comfortable there. Throwing from 3B has been okay so far. Long way to go but…
For sake of discussion, let’s say hypothetically Madrigal is a 300 hitter and getting some extra base hits——along the lines of his .317 BA in 327 WSox PAs——and is at least as good as Wisdom defensively. Could he be the starter at 3B?
Of course, this doesn’t help Cubs power shortage any, to say the least, but you could even hit Madrigal leadoff if he’s batting .317.
This is an unlikely scenario but not seeing any great alternatives at 3B.
Rather see Kris Bryant at 3B for Cubs than seeing him as “another guy who can hit” playing in a corner OF spot for the anonymous Rockies. Bryant got his money but he should be a 3B on a HOF path with Cubs with attainable benchmarks for that position.
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Cubs broadcast team mentioned the same thing yesterday.
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Mervis has some mannerisms setting up in the box that are reminiscent of Rizzo.
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Liked what I saw of Leeper today.
Correa was impressive, too, but got screwed by poor "defense" by Quiroz.
It's amazing to me that a high minors guy with Correa's stuff doesn't get chosen in the Rule 5 draft. It's a different era, man.
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The Cubs have a substantial depth of relievers in the minors. And they also have a knack for salvaging relievers in free agency. I hope that they use this asset by continuing to trade veteran relievers at the trade deadline, regardless of their position in the standings, and replace from within.
Even young, controlled relievers like Effross, can be a source of other, better talent in trades, as long as they can bring in a steady stream of better-than-average replacements from their system.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-injury-updates-and-pitching-musings/
Ross said Assad hit 95 on Sunday, and notes that he's slimmed down some.
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I heard favorable reports on Killian from yesterday, that he threw a ton of strikes and his stuff looked good. Ross said he hit 97. The talkers noted that while he lost his command last year, that his stuff really did improve. The hope would be that *IF* he could combine the improved 2022 stuff with the command he'd had previously, that he could be good.
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Word on Killian is his knee was really bothering him last year.
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I heard favorable reports on Killian from yesterday, that he threw a ton of strikes and his stuff looked good. Ross said he hit 97. The talkers noted that while he lost his command last year, that his stuff really did improve. The hope would be that *IF* he could combine the improved 2022 stuff with the command he'd had previously, that he could be good.
Killian really seems to be in another category from most of our back-end SP options in terms of upside. Knee issues or not he needs to prove it after that disastrous debut last season, but that’s somebody I’d sure like to see get a substantial number of starts this year.
Mervis looks very comfortable and polished at the plate. The jury is out on him but there’s probably not a lot of point in parking him at AAA, where he’s already proved he can dominate, for a long stretch. Sooner or later you’ve got to find out whether the tools play in the majors.
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I do hate that Suzuki is hurt but its time to see what we've got in Davis and Mervis anyway.
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Of course, we also need to find out what we have in Seiya.
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Im more confident that I know what Suzuki is than I am the other two.
I'd bet Suzuki is .260-.270 with 20-25 HRs.
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On signing a lefty reliever...
“If someone came into camp, I wouldn’t be shocked,” Jed Hoyer told reporters Thursday.
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On signing a lefty reliever...
“If someone came into camp, I wouldn’t be shocked,” Jed Hoyer told reporters Thursday.
As someone commented on Mooney’s Twitter page, if Hoyer is shocked by a free agent showing up in camp, then he’s not doing his job very well.
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I took Hoyer's comment as sparky. He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring.
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Britton.
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Has Hughes pitched yet? I don’t recall seeing him, unless he was in the split squad game the other day…
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I haven't seen him.
But I have seen Duffy, and he is impressive.
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https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-2023-opening-day-roster?partnerId=zh-20230303-842350-MLB-1-A&qid=100000031&utm_id=zh-20230303-842350-MLB-1-A&bt_ee=dvhv94SQeKoEJFMVTj5zxAa0aJdM98g2OeJX3TpzFE3nWMSjTRQ%2B2J80MsDYy1mD&bt_ts=1677872658159
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https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-2023-opening-day-roster?partnerId=zh-20230303-842350-MLB-1-A&qid=100000031&utm_id=zh-20230303-842350-MLB-1-A&bt_ee=dvhv94SQeKoEJFMVTj5zxAa0aJdM98g2OeJX3TpzFE3nWMSjTRQ%2B2J80MsDYy1mD&bt_ts=1677872658159
Don't see DeLuzio making club over Morel (or Mastrobuoni), especially having to make 40-man roster room.
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The fact that Bastian even implies so should show that he's terrible at his job.
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First cuts…
Eight non-roster invitees have been assigned to minor league camp: left-handed pitcher Brailyn Marquez, catcher Bryce Windham, infielders Esteban Quiroz, Chase Strumpf, Andy Weber and Jared Young, and outfielders Darius Hill and Yonathan Perlaza.
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Hill looks like a ballplayer to me. I thought he performed well.
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Hill looks like a ballplayer to me. I thought he performed well.
Agree. Looked bigger than I expected, too.
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Trib article on Patrick Wisdom's defense at 3B.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-patrick-wisdom-defense-20230308-bzp6bhqsljafjavtvoksgumwey-story.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Don%27t%20miss%3A%20News%20%2B%20Sports&utm_content=5721678239820&lctg=3413204
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Trib is behind a paywall.
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Trib is behind a paywall.
MESA, Ariz. — Patrick Wisdom’s end-of-season meeting with the Chicago Cubs involved some hard truths.
Wisdom can carry the offense for stretches when he gets locked in and rips off a barrage of extra-base hits. Streakiness has been part of his offensive profile the last two years, at times a battle to cut down strikeouts and lessen the severity and length of slumps.
But good defense should be a constant no matter what happens in the batter’s box. And that, manager David Ross and his staff conveyed to Wisdom, needed to be addressed for 2023. The Cubs put it simply to Wisdom: He needs to flush his at-bats and not let them carry over to the field.
“It’s definitely something I needed to hear, not necessarily what I wanted to hear — it’s like a gut punch,” Wisdom told the Tribune. “Sometimes I was caught on my heels because my mind is somewhere else. I want to perform so well at the plate that it kind of filtered into the field.
“It’s hard because when you’re in the moment, these blinders go on and you can’t hear or think straight and then the next thing you know, the ball’s hit at you and you’re like, ‘Crap.’
“So, be centered and be present. I took that to heart.”
Wisdom, 31, knew the Cubs’ assessment was right, so he spent the offseason reflecting. It required deep introspection to break down why offensive struggles would affect his defense so greatly. Too often, Wisdom realized, he was caught dwelling on his swing or ticked off by his last at-bat. His mindset needed recalibrating.
“It was a good period in the offseason of addressing where I was insufficient within my emotions and fixing that,” Wisdom said. “Knowing that coming into spring training, I was able to leapfrog some of those hurdles. It was a matter of reflecting on the emotional back-and-forth that I was having.”
Beyond improved focus, Wisdom has changed how he tracks a pitch, something he started working on in the second half of 2022. Instead of trying to follow the ball’s path from the pitcher’s hand to the hitter, Wisdom adjusted his eyes to watch the batter as soon as the pitcher begins his delivery.
It’s the same pre-pitch preparation Nick Madrigal implemented in the offseason for his move to third base. And like Madrigal, Wisdom watched video of Hall of Fame third baseman Scott Rolen to gain a better understanding of how tracking the ball that way can lead to more consistent defense.
Bench coach Andy Green, who works with Cubs infielders, saw that ball-tracking messaging begin to pay off for Wisdom near the end of last season. After committing 10 errors in 88 first-half games, Wisdom had three errors over his last 43 games.
“Everything starts with seeing the ball and picking the ball up as early as possible,” Green told the Tribune. “Sometimes you get so consumed with technique, you lose sight of, I just need to see the baseball.”
Wisdom’s sight-line change produces a quicker reaction and first step on balls off the bat.
“Because it’s so fast, my eyes couldn’t keep up,” Wisdom said of the adjustment. “Timing on pre-pitches is now way better because I find myself just flowing with the pitch whenever it’s fouled off.”
The Cubs’ conviction in Wisdom’s defense at third hasn’t wavered. They view last year as an aberration and reiterated during the end-of-season meeting that he possesses the glove and strong arm to be an asset at the position.
Wisdom appreciated their kick-in-the-butt approach to his defensive inconsistencies while still expressing confidence in his ability.
“He’s really talented, and he’s also human like the rest of us,” Green said. “You make a mistake, you think about that. Most of us think about our mistakes for too long. And the longer we fixate on those, the more likely they are to happen again.
“So it’s just flushing mistakes. It’s not harping on them too long. Rarely is there something fundamentally incorrect with Wiz. He just has to discard it.”
Wisdom also dealt with a back issue for “a long time” last year, Green said, which affected his mobility. Green credited Wisdom for never complaining, staying in the lineup and trying to play through the ailment. Wisdom appeared in 134 games and went on the injured list only once, missing 14 days in the final month because of a sprained ring finger.
“Now he’s moving again and feeling much more like himself,” Green said. “I think we’re going to see the real Patrick Wisdom again this year. He’s a good defender.
“This game will beat you up, and the guys that can take the constructive information and do something positive with it are going to play for a long time. And he does that.”
Wisdom projects to provide the best defense among the Cubs’ third-base options. They also could get him in the lineup in right field while Seiya Suzuki is out with an oblique strain. Wisdom started nine games in the outfield last season — six in right and three in left.
Defensive versatility is always an asset, especially as the Cubs consider how to build their opening-day bench. There are no guarantees Wisdom will get the bulk of playing time at third base this year.
Madrigal continues to get a long look there this spring. He has made five of his six starts at third, including in Tuesday’s 9-6 win against the Texas Rangers. Edwin Ríos, who hit his second Cactus League home run Tuesday, is also in the third-base mix. The trio gives the Cubs matchup options to maximize their strengths against each game’s starting pitcher.
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Thanks!
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Thanks, Ron.
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In his piece on Cubs catching situation yesterday at Athletic, Mooney noted that Wesneski “looks like the favorite to be the No. 5 starter” on opening day rotation. Given that Sampson has given up six homers in his most recent two appearances, I suppose that’s a reasonable inference at the moment. That could change as spring games continue, even though spring training is just spring training. But, a VAST difference in spring performances probably will factor, if it continues that way.
Assuming Wesneski wins the #5 spot, probably still a spot for Sampson in bullpen. It’s just opening day. Likely that tons of different guys will get starts during course of season.
Most interesting thing will be if non-roster guy(s) win bullpen spot(s) and how Cubs maneuver the 40-man to make room.
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Sampson has an option remaining. I can't see him making the opening day bullpen.
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Interesting that Killian has only one 2 inning appearance so far.
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Sampson has an option remaining. I can't see him making the opening day bullpen.
There are perhaps 12 guys, at least, with legit shots for the 8-man bullpen. So, could be that Sampson’s best shot is the #5 rotation spot.
Merryweather is looking very good. Seems like Tyler Duffey, as a guy with a nice major league track record, has a good shot. Wick throwing better lately. Rucker looks good. Alzolay out of options but seems behind those guys at this point of spring. Estrada will be up soon if doesn’t make opening day. Fullmer, Boxberger, Hughes, Thompson are locks. Leiter, Jr. is kind of the second “lefty” if makes club, so he’s a contender. Would not rule out Borucki, who has almost 100 big league appearances, as the second lefty.
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I thought Leiter was a righty??
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I thought Leiter was a righty??
He is. Reb is referring to his splits against lefties almost makes him a lefty.
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I think I count 7 World Series rings on our 40 man roster.
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And one of them came from a Cub World Series.
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And one of them came from a Cub World Series.
The only one from that team.
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As of now, this is what I would like to see as the open day roster.
OF Happ
OF Bellinger
OF Davis
3B Morel
SS Swanson
2B Hoerner
1B Mancini
C Gomes
DH Rios
C Bernhardt
OF Velasquez
INF-OF Wisdom
INF Madrigal
But this is what I think the Cubs will do.
OF Happ
OF Bellinger
OF Wisdom
3B Morel
SS Swanson
2B Hoerner
1B Mancini
C Gomes
DH Rios
C Bernhardt
OF Velasquez
INF McKenstry
INF Madrigal
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As of now, this is what I would like to see as the open day roster….
Think that Hosmer will make the club.
He might not stay for long if he doesn’t hit. But, as CBJ has noted, Hosmer was “amazing” last April. Maybe will be hot again to start the season.
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I’d have Tauchman on there.
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They are going to have a substantial 40 man slot crunch this spring. I agree that they are likely to keep Hosmer at first, but that will cause them to lose Kay or one of the other relievers that look quite good. I would hate to keep Hosmer and lose a reliever that can be flipped this July.
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They are going to have a substantial 40 man slot crunch this spring. I agree that they are likely to keep Hosmer at first, but that will cause them to lose Kay or one of the other relievers that look quite good. I would hate to keep Hosmer and lose a reliever that can be flipped this July.
What does Hosmer have to do with that? We can only keep 13 pitchers.
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40 man?
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What does Hosmer have to do with that? We can only keep 13 pitchers.
We can replace Hosmer with a position player that is already on the 40 man, and use his spot for a reliever. We have several relievers that can be optioned out.
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They are going to have a substantial 40 man slot crunch this spring. I agree that they are likely to keep Hosmer at first, but that will cause them to lose Kay or one of the other relievers that look quite good. I would hate to keep Hosmer and lose a reliever that can be flipped this July.
Kay is not on the 40 and was outrighted before spring training, so nothing to do with Hosmer. If want to keep Duffey, Cubs will have to move out somebody from the 40, guessing Rucker or Alzolay.
McKinstry either makes the club or will come off the 40, so IF Tauchman (or Bote) wins a opening day spot, likely to be at the expense of McKinstry. Probably unlikely that both Tauchman and McKinstry make club in any case, which is a 26-man issue.
Would not call any of this a “substantial crunch” with the 40, but rather typical competition for opening day spots that may result in a guy or two getting waived or traded.
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Kay is not on the 40 and was outrighted before spring training, so nothing to do with Hosmer.
Would not call any of this a “substantial crunch” with the 40, but rather typical competition for opening day spots that may result in a guy or two getting waived or traded.
It certainly would have something to do with Hosmer if they want to put Kay (or anyone not on the 40) back on the roster. Someone would have to come off, and I believe Hosmer would be the easiest one to lose. Yes every team has this problem every year, but this is the first year in quite a while where they are likely to lose some players I would rather keep.
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Im not sure Hosmer would be much of a loss.
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That is my point.
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That is my point.
That is a point for last January when Cubs signed Hosmer in the first place, a matter that was much discussed here around that time.
For the spring—now that he’s here—it has very little to do with how the bullpen shakes out for opening day. That is a competition among relievers.
Like it or not, Hosmer is exceedingly likely to be here opening day, particularly with Mancini likely to get some playing time in RF in April, in Suzuki’s absence. Not a 100% lock to be here, but pretty close. If Hosmer was on the bubble, think we’d be seeing more of Mervis right now than we are. Every indication is that Mervis ticketed for Iowa to open the season.
So, seems like quite a stretch to link Hosmer with the upcoming bullpen decisions.
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You make it sound as if I am saying that the Hosmer decision is the ONLY factor involved in the reliever decision, which is a distortion.
The Cubs have a number of NRI relievers, several of which they probably will want to keep. But each one that they activate will force them to drop SOMEONE off the 40 man roster that they also want to keep. If they keep Hosmer, who is probably the least valuable of them all right now, they run the risk of losing one that has much more long term value.
Although this is always a problem for all teams, it has been a much smaller problem in the past for the Cubs, because they had fewer NRIs that they wanted to keep, and more roster slots that could easily be filled.
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Linking Hosmer to bullpen decisions in any significant way is a distraction from the ACTUAL bullpen decisions, which are one reliever vis a vis another reliever.
The NRI relievers are not all in same boat. Some will stay in the organization even when don’t make the major league team and maybe a couple probably have opt-out deals they may want to exercise and will depart. None of that is in any significant way connected to Hosmer. It’s possible that none of them will leave the organization early.
If Cubs were to sour on Hosmer as early as spring training, it would likely mean they want to keep some other position player who’s on the bubble, such as McInstry. If they want to keep Tauchman, they will need a spot from a position player.
In any case, it is very likely that a condition of signing Hosmer was that he’s getting a shot to play plenty of 1B when the season opens. Releasing him before he gets that shot is highly unlikely given likely nature of that deal. If he was here on a make-good basis, he would be here on a minor league deal. He isn’t. If he’s terrible for a few weeks of the season, then he may be released at that point. But to focus on Hosmer in any significant way to the bullpen decisions is misplaced, seems to me.
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No. The decision to keep one or more NRI player requires them to open up a 40 man roster spot, which requires taking someone off the 40 man roster, which subjects the team to the danger of losing that player. If they keep Hosmer on the roster, that will be at the expense of either losing the NRI player (most of which are relief pitchers) or someone else on the 40 man roster.
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Dave-Anybody can say what you're saying—about any rostered player they don’t like or don’t want—on every single team in MLB. This time of year there’s competition for roster spots, everywhere.
The time to discuss Hosmer’s value or non-value was in January when he was signed. Now, he’s here and there's a very high probability he’s making the club. I think you probably agree with that, or at least you haven’t said otherwise. You don’t want him. We get that. Your not the only one if I recall the posts from 2-3 months ago.
So, as a practical matter, linking Hosmer to bullpen matters is hugely attenuated, as thin as can be. Who knows, maybe Hosmer will be “amazing” in April, as he was last April as CBJ has reminded us.
And, hypothetically, if Hosmer happens to be released instead, the impact of that new 40-man roster spot very likely would go to a position player, such as Bote or Tauchman—who would need to go on the 40-man because they would be on the active roster..
So, focusing on Hosmer in relation to the bullpen is barking up the wrong tree. It’s literally true that releasing a 40-man guy opens up a spot on the 40-man, obviously. But, so what? The connection between Hosmer and the Cubs bullpen is almost nil.
In any case, Cubs have a ton of relievers including useful guys who will be at Iowa and even Tennessee. If they have to move out somebody, not that big a deal because there are many more useful candidates than openings. Yes, you never have enough pitching but you can’t keep every pitcher you might want to keep. Every team in baseball has guys they’d like to keep but can’t. Cubs also have the alternative of putting Canario on 60-day and opening a 40-man spot that way, if they feel it necessary.
In the meantime, Hosmer almost certainly is going to get his shot opening day and the bullpen will be decided independent of that, like it or not.
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Mervis is starting for Team Israel, by the way.
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Javier Assad hit 97 mph in the WBC
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I wonder how accurate those guns are.
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I haven't been watching, but if they are playing in MLB stadiums they would be using Trackman. If it is the spring training sites then it is variable if they are using Trackman.
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I wonder how accurate those guns are.
Accurate guns? We don't need no stinkin' accurate guns.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/spring-training-notebook-cubs-reflect-on-javier-assads-outing-vs-usa-and-rings-are-handed-out/
Says Assad maxed at 95.1 in majors. Said he had ten pitches above that in ten USA batters. Said goal was to touch 98, and he’s almost there.
Fun. Maybe reminder that guys aren’t as strong and fast in august after 100 innings.
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We've built some pitching depth.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/spring-training-notebook-cubs-reflect-on-javier-assads-outing-vs-usa-and-rings-are-handed-out/
Says Assad maxed at 95.1 in majors. Said he had ten pitches above that in ten USA batters. Said goal was to touch 98, and he’s almost there.
Fun. Maybe reminder that guys aren’t as strong and fast in august after 100 innings.
It was also the biggest stage of his life and he knew he was only going a couple of innings.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-justin-steeles-struggles-seiya-suzukis-status-and-some-birthday-fun/
Suzuki seems to be progressing well.
Steele felt off yesterday; velocity well down.
In other reports, both Marquiz and Athletic, Thompson's velocity has apparently been noticably down this spring.
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Thompson has been around 90 on his fastball this spring.
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Baseball America on Hayden:
Scout’s Take: “Wesneski looks really, really damn good. I'd be surprised if they don't give the fifth starter spot to him. He's probably their third or fourth pitcher right now. He's better than (Drew) Smyly. He's probably better than (Justin) Steele. If not, they're on the same level right now, but he will be better during the season. He'll be their No. 3 starter, in my opinion, by July. I'm pretty big on him. He looked really good mixing and matching fastballs and sliders. Really good command. Did exceptionally well.”
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Wood got sent down even though he was clearly the best pitcher at camp.
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Fangraphs' position rankings aren't going well for the Cubs so far. They rank as the 3rd worst in baseball at both catcher and first base.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-catcher/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-first-base/
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Defense wins championships.
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Fangraphs' position rankings aren't going well for the Cubs so far. They rank as the 3rd worst in baseball at both catcher and first base.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-catcher/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-first-base/
Can someone explain why they have the Cubs at #11 at 2B with Hoerner there?
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Hoerner's WAR is 5th highest among the second basemen they rated. However, his predicted OBP is meh and his predicted SA is lower than the 10 second basemen on teams with higher team ratings. Essentially, much of Nico's high WAR comes with his predicted high number of plate appearances(he is expected to have the 4th highest number of ) and fielding prowess (he is rated as the 2nd best fielder at 2B). The other teams pass the Cubs because of more positive WAR numbers from their substitutes. Madrigal and McKinstry do not impress computer algorithms.
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The 2023 Cubs are projected to improve in WAR more at 1B than 2B!
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They have made these yearly projections for quite some time now. Has anyone ever gone back and compared their projections to the actuals to determine how useful their projections are?
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Madrigal and McKinstry do not impress computer algorithms.
I find this hard to believe.
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The 2023 Cubs are projected to improve in WAR more at 1B than 2B!
I try not to be too retro in my view on such things, but this does not seem to make sense. But, hey, what do I know?
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It probably has something to do with the possibility that the Cubs would have had greater WAR with me playing first base last year.
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It probably has something to do with the possibility that the Cubs would have had greater WAR with me playing first base last year.
It would still a negative WAR however.
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I have always been anti-WAR.
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I thought everyone from the 60s was dead.
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Sharma on Keegan Thompson's velocity issue and how the Cubs are working with him to fix it.
https://theathletic.com/4334334/2023/03/22/cubs-keegan-thompson-velocity-struggles/
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Was just getting ready to share that…thanks, Ron…
It’s a great read for those who are interested in some of what Hottovy brings to the PC position…
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They have made these yearly projections for quite some time now. Has anyone ever gone back and compared their projections to the actuals to determine how useful their projections are?
The team projected wins usually are with a standard deviation, which I believe is +\- 5 wins.
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Yeah, usually within a standard deviation——EXCEPT when they're not.
It’s a Toy….and toys are fun.
That’s what it is. Fun.
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The team projected wins usually are with a standard deviation, which I believe is +\- 5 wins.
I'm sorry. I was wondering more about specific position projections. I suspect they are much more variable than full team projections.
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I took Hoyer's comment as sparky. He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring.
Yeah, usually within a standard deviation——EXCEPT when they're not.
It’s a Toy….and toys are fun.
That’s what it is. Fun.
this confuses me. Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?
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I took Hoyer's comment as sparky. He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring. this confuses me. Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?
We’re talking here about a fun tool that is mostly based on data. I am pointing out that this kind of tool has its limitations.
What I don’t like are uncorroborated “rumors” from sketchy non-journalist sources that plague the internet and sometimes get posted here. Mostly, these originally derive from folks who just make things up and have no reputation to lose, unlike an actual sports journalist.
Guessing that you can get the difference. Yes, even the former can be “fun.” Don’t see the fun in the latter, sorry.
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I took Hoyer's comment as sparky. He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring. this confuses me. Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?
Individual projections don’t have error bars. Some are better than others, but they aren’t great.
Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?
Only Reb approved fun is allowed on this board.
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Only Reb approved fun is allowed on this board.
No, nobody is stopping you (and others) from posting dumb, uncorroborated “rumors” from amateur “sources” and nobody is stopping me from pointing out the folly of doing that.
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"nobody is stopping me from pointing out the folly of doing that." WANNA BET?
Reb. the internet is for social networking, business, wacky conspiracy theorists, information, and ENTERTAINMENT. I see posts on here everyday, I shake my head at, I don't necessarily comment unless it's a friend. I know that my sense of humor, PlayTwo's sense of humor, some people's politics or beliefs rub some people the wrong way, to the point that they leave the board. It's life.
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For Curt, CBJ, Method, and anybody else in need. Have Fun!
https://www.phillyvoice.com/reporters-guide-avoid-fake-sports-nfl-draft-rumors-twitter/
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I understand that MLB.com has projected the Cubs to finish in third place in the NL Central with a .500 record. I have read multiple articles stating that this would be a disappointing outcome. I would be disappointed but my take is that most of those on this board (and most experts) would not be. Thoughts?
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.500 seems to me to be about the best we could hope for.
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The Cubs have traded INF Esteban Quiroz to the Phillies for cash considerations.
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Keegan two perfect innings. Not sure if the velocity was back at all, but hopefully it's a good sign?
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With Wisdom healthy and having a good spring, and with Rios having a good-hitting spring too, my guy Miles Mastrobuoni isn't going to make the opening roster. Got a solid hit today and two walks. I think there might be a time when he might be a nice bench guy who gives competitive AB's.
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Keegan was up to 92, which is better but still down.
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The Cubs have traded INF Esteban Quiroz to the Phillies for cash considerations.
If Cubs reclaim Chris Clarke, it will cost $50,000 (out of the $100,000 they received from Mariners originally), so maybe the Quiroz sale effectively covers the fee for Clarke.
Quiroz for Clarke, for Cubs.
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With Wisdom healthy and having a good spring, and with Rios having a good-hitting spring too, my guy Miles Mastrobuoni isn't going to make the opening roster. Got a solid hit today and two walks. I think there might be a time when he might be a nice bench guy who gives competitive AB's.
I think he has a better chance than McKinstry. But he has options so I suspect he starts at Iowa.
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If Cubs reclaim Chris Clarke, it will cost $50,000 (out of the $100,000 they received from Mariners originally), so maybe the Quiroz sale effectively covers the fee for Clarke.
Quiroz for Clarke, for Cubs.
[/quote
A fun article from a few months ago on Chris' chances of sticking with the Mariners
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/1/26/23566482/seattle-mariners-roster-preivew-chris-clarke-pitcher-rule-5-draft-40-in-40-2023
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I understand that MLB.com has projected the Cubs to finish in third place in the NL Central with a .500 record. I have read multiple articles stating that this would be a disappointing outcome. I would be disappointed but my take is that most of those on this board (and most experts) would not be. Thoughts?
I would be disappointed. That would be a totally plausible outcome; given our hitting it's not at all improbable to finish .500 or worse. I don't fault an algorithm that calculates .500 as the most likely outcome. (Nor algorithms that forecast less than 81 wins.)
But I'll be disappointed if that's all we get. Like any fan, I'm hoping for the team to play better and to outperform where a reasonable over-under might be set. Hoping that players improve and develop. We've got some highly unpredictable, high-variance guys. I'm hoping that some work out reasonably well, rather than just hitting the mediocre not-awful-not-excellent middle ground.
So yeah, I'm hoping for some work-out-well stories, some possible-but-not-certain guys to work out reasonably well. Certainly we'll need some uncertain guys to work out on the favorable side. If none of the uncertain guys do pan out on the favorable side, I'll be disappointed.
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I'm hoping that our defense and relief pitching can anchor top 10 run prevention. Were that to happen, an average offense would make us competitive in the Central. Not the most likely outcome, but not out of the question.
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My view too, P2.
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We need Mervis,Davis,Wisneski,Killian etc. to contribute.
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35924375/chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger-play-mvp-again
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35924375/chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger-play-mvp-again
Don’t think anybody expecting a Bellinger return to MVP form of 2019. Seems kind of pie-in-the-sky.
But, just maybe he could return to his 2020 form of the covid season, which was a big drop-off at the time but looks pretty good now——.789 OPS and a pro-rated 4 WAR season. That’s a good player. Hoping.
If Bellinger did that and Suzuki took a significant step upward, combined with solid offensive seasons from Hoerner, Swanson, Happ——that might be a quite good 1-5 batting order at the top.
That’s asking a lot but who knows. If it happened, Cubs might muddle thru the 6-7 lineup spots if could get some production from DH and whoever ends up getting most of the 1B PAs. Geez, you’d think a major league club could get production out of DH and 1B.
Hard to see anything but poor offensive production from 3B and C, realistically.
But, if could be really good 1-5, might score some runs.
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Craig worried about Mastrobuoni not making the club.
Maybe he won’t, but think he has decent chance.
Probably depends on what Cubs do with Morel. Some AAA seasoning for Morel or makes opening day 26.
Other possibility is a move with Madrigal, which seems unlikely.
Rios and Tauchman are making the club. So, rest of bench could be Madrigal and Mastrobuoni OR Morel, plus backup catcher of course. Seems like McKinstry probably out, with Tauchman taking that 40-man slot.
Of course, possible that Cubs prefer McKinstry over Mastrobuoni and Tauchman takes the latter’s 40-man spot.
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Reb, agree with thought on Bellinger. OPS-wise, he's had seasons in the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 hundreds.
*Nobody is seriously imagining he's going to approach his best years (MVP 1.035 OPS, or the .933 of his other all-star season.)
*But I'm at least hoping that neither will he reproduce his two worst seasons (.542 and .654 OPS)?
*Might he approach his two more middling seasons (.814 and .789)? That's my hope.
*Not probable, but neither impossible no implausible.
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...Mastrobuoni... think he has decent chance.
...Rios and Tauchman are making the club. So, rest of bench could be Madrigal and Mastrobuoni OR Morel, plus backup catcher of course. Seems like McKinstry probably out, with Tauchman taking that 40-man slot.
Of course, possible that Cubs prefer McKinstry over Mastrobuoni and Tauchman takes the latter’s 40-man spot.
I'd be surprised if the Cubs de-rostered Mastrobuoni to make 40-man for Tauchman while also keeping McKinstry.
-MM has options for a while, MK doesn't.
-So better for future flexibility to keep the options man.
-I also imagine that the league would be more likely to claim MM-with-options. So, *IF* you care whether or not you lose the guy you cut, I think that risk is lower with McKinstry.
I thought I saw or heard something a few days ago that Suzuki may be progressing reasonably well, and may not be out for super long. If so, Tauchman might be a somewhat temporary 40-man placeholder.
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Between cutting McKinstry or others, and putting guys on 60-day DL, they may have roster space for any non-rosters they want to add for opening day. But *IF* it isn't easy, I wonder how important Tauchman is? Mancini has played lots of outfield; would you be starting Tauchman ahead of Mancini? Morel has played some outfield, and *IF* you decided to play him over Tauchman, the "send-to-Iowa-to-get-regular-AB's" motive wouldn't apply.
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Wisneski named 5th starter.
Sampson sent down.
Wisneski might end up being one of our best starters and we traded an injured reliever for him.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-spring-training-notebook-ripple-effects-of-rotation-decisions-injury-updates-and-roster-moves/
Suzuki hitting coach-toss pitches, and "crushing" them. Seems to to be progressing.
*"By not playing him in a Cactus League game, the Cubs can theoretically backdate his IL stint, too — meaning he would be away from the team for the first seven days of the season versus the first 10, provided he’s recovering well enough."
*"Ross has said that some combination of Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom could play right field while Suzuki recovers."
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Paul Sullivan
@PWSullivan
Assad officially in bullpen, per Cubs manager
@PWSullivan
Tauchman and Elias assigned to minors. Cubs roster down to 37
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Tyler Duffey wasn't good last year, but he was effective for the previous 3 seasons, and he's been solid this camp. I wonder what the terms of his contract look like. Can the Cubs farm him, and keep him there for months? Or might he have one of those triggers where he can opt out if he's not called up my May 1st or whatever? It's not like he's got some high ceiling or was ever great (although his 2019 numbers were pretty stellar.). But I wonder if Ross maybe likes him, and would like to keep him on the roster?
Another non-roster guy, so not sure they want to clear two spots for non-roster Duffey and Leiter both, and reb has thought Tauchman might get another one besides.
There have been a LOT of seasons where the Cubs worst reliever was a LOT worse than the 2019-2022 good version of Duffey.
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As discussed in BR, Tauchman’s minor league assignment likely means that Suzuki won’t miss much of April after all. Maybe just a week of the season?
And, of course, now no need to open up a 40-man spot for Tauchman.
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Craig-seems likely that Duffy has an opt-out triggered very soon. Maybe he’ll make the club in any case.
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I only count 35, not 37.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/03/27/chicago-cubs-roster-news-tauchman-elias-torrens-hughes-wick-rucker-more/
Per this report:
1. Tauchman to Iowa.
2. Elias to Iowa.
3. Maddie Lee says Wick likely to get waived.
4. Taylor suggests Hughes is likely to start on IR
5. Sharma thinks Rucker is a lock to make the roster
6. Sharma thinks Torrens is likely to make the roster. That would be another non-roster guy.
7. Assad is apparently making the roster.
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https://theathletic.com/4350018/2023/03/27/cubs-roster-opening-day/
Sharma predictions.
*He has Wicks waived with Leiter taking his spot.
*He has McKinstry waived with Torrens taking his spots.
*He guesses Mastrobuoni makes the team ahead of Morel.
*He has Madrigal as a "lock", as well as Assad, Rucker, and Merryweather.
*He guesses Keegan will make the team, and Hodges will be back-dated IR.
*Per his guesses, he's got zero lefties in the opening pen.
He's got some other interesting notes.
*Suggests that Kay has reverse splits, so that Borucki might be ahead of him on the lefty-reliever ladder.
"The Cubs didn’t want to lose Torrens’ bat and they see him as solid, if unspectacular, defensively. If he weren’t to make the team, Torrens would likely opt out of his contract, meaning the Cubs would lose a valuable third catcher."
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I'd assumed Torrens was not only unspectacular, that he was flat bad defensively. The concept that he's "solid" defensively surprises me. In the Covid season he had a .300 OBP, but otherwise below.
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Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
The Chicago #Cubs acquired RHP Carlos Guzman from the Detroit #Tigers for infielder Zach McKinstry
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Torrens is better than Barnhart.
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Torrens is better than Barnhart.
I haven't watched enough of Torrens to get a feel for his defense, but this is not a bad opinion to have in the least bit.
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The ball jumps off Torrens’ bat. I get not wanting to lose him.
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Jed said Morel going to AAA to get more ABs and I think he said Mastrobuoni made the club.
So, looks like bench will be backup catcher, Torrens, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni, Rios.
If that’s correct, seems like Mastrobuoni is going to be starting some in RF (along with Mancini) until Suzuki gets back.
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Mastrobuoni! Good for him, I kinda love that.
reb, I think Ross has also talked about Wisdom playing RF, too. So I imagine Ross can do some improvising with that.
Miles is the lefty bat among all those guys. Suzuki, Wisdom, Torrens, Madrigal, lots of righties. I'd think MM might get some starts versus RHP.
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Mastrobuoni! Good for him, I kinda love that.
reb, I think Ross has also talked about Wisdom playing RF, too. So I imagine Ross can do some improvising with that.
Miles is the lefty bat among all those guys. Suzuki, Wisdom, Torrens, Madrigal, lots of righties. I'd think MM might get some starts versus RHP.
Rios is a lefty bat too.
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Yeah. I'd think Rios could get a TON of lefty DH opportunities. Maybe some 1B chances, too? But, he's probably a whiffaholic, and probably a slump-a-lot guy, and probably vulnerable to pitchers with good swing-and-miss stuff. Miles might get some starts at DH when Ross just wants some contact for a change? And for the week(s) without Suzuki, Rios isn't a right-fielder, correct?
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Rowan Wick is off the 40-man, cleared waivers, and outrighted to Iowa.
Clears a 40-man spot, presumably for Leiter, Jr but not yet announced.
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Rosenthal says the Cubs are in “advanced discussions” on a Hoerner extension.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/cubs-nico-hoerner-in-advanced-discussion-talks.html
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3/35 is a good deal for both parties, imo…
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Hoyer is petty good at not leaking stuff.
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3/35 is a good deal for both parties, imo…
That seems meh from Horner’s standpoint to me.
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And yet he seems satisfied enough to sign it.
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That seems meh from Horner’s standpoint to me.
Seems pretty meh from both sides to me. Low risk, low reward for both sides. Very on-brand for the Jed Hoyer era, it's well within his comfort zone.
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Guarantees Nico life changing money, but it only buys out 1 year of his free agency. He’ll still hit free agency when he’s 29. At least it is something positive for the Cubs in the future, even if it doesn’t move the needle a ton.
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The Nico extension is fine. There's nothing stopping the Cubs from extending him again if he continues to play at the level he showed last year or continues to improve, and if his play falls off, we're not in a Jason Heyward situation where we're stuck with him. No need to complain about this one.
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One year is one year. The Cubs might be a good team during that year and we might be glad to have him. Getting contract off the mind for a year or two might be nice, too? And for Cubs, I think future planning is a little easier when there are a few more defined costs locked in.
Hoerner is $2.5 this year. As a guy who's had injuries, locking in $35 probably seems kind of nice.
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Torrens has made the team.
Cubs selected the contract of C Luis Torrens from Triple-A Iowa.
The Cubs will carry three catchers to begin the 2023 season as they didn't want to risk losing Torrens to waivers. The 26-year-old hit .273 (6-for-22) with two homers and four RBI in Cactus League play. He'll fight for playing time behind Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart.
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He'll fight for playing time behind Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart.
Those words have never been in the same sentence ever before.
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"There was some debate about whether Ríos’ strong spring makes Hosmer redundant, especially with his lack of versatility. It never got to the point that he was actually looked at as not making the team out of spring, but the leash could be short there if he struggles out of the gate and the Cubs need a roster spot."
- Sahadev Sharman via The Athletic
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That seems meh from Horner’s standpoint to me.
better than the Bote contract...oy vey
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Worth noting that Leiter was part of the Cubs workout today at Wrigley.
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Everyone be sure to wish my buddy Curt a very happy birthday today!
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He’s closing in on the Guinness world record for oldest living person!
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Happy Birthday Curt! I guess this is the one day out of the year I can actually be nice to you. :)
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Happy Birthday, Curt!!!
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Thank you, Dave, method, and even you, JR. The rest of you I will sqrue over in trade negotiations.
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Happy birthday Curt!
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Trey Mancini's family owns Mancini Peppers and they produce up to 50,000 lbs of peppers a day.
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Hope it's a great year for you, Curt.
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Happy bday Curt!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmKOnaRfkXY
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Wow...I feel all warm and fuzzy. Seriously, I appreciate the attention.
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I hate to ruin the warm and fuzzy feeling, but Happy Birthday, Curt.
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Happy birthday, Kirk. I have to say that in all my years I’ve never seen a finer poster than Kirk! Heck, I was tellin my grandkids the other day about that one clever thing you wrote the other day….you know the one.
To Kirk!
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I am overwhelmed with the happy thoughts from friends and fremenies alike. Thanks
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A belated Happy Birthday, Curt! Hope you did something fun to celebrate!!
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A belated Happy Birthday, Curt! Hope you did something fun to celebrate!!
I got up and took nourishment.
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I read a story about how the Cubs really like Torrens and Madrigal will be the one to go when Suzuki comes back.
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Bellinger seems to Be gaining confidence. No hits to show for it, but he's made contact today against lefties.
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I worried that some new hitters might get off to bad starts in bad hitting weather in Wrigley in April. That doesn't seem to have been much of a factor. Decent hitting weather already, and they've started off fine.
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Here's a positive transaction. Let's get this guy in the lineup every day and see what happens.
Cubs recalled OF Nelson Velásquez from Triple-A Iowa.
The 24-year-old outfielder had been tearing the cover off the baseball at Triple-A Iowa, slashing .364/.432/.697 with three homers and seven RBI in his first eight games, so the Cubs will see if he can add a spark to the big league offense. Velazquez is active and in uniform for Monday's contest against the Mariners, but is not in the Cubs' starting lineup. Javier Assad was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.
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Are we going to go with four outfielders?
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We have a DH don't we? Seems like we've been doing a lot of rotating guys in that spot so far. I think there are semi-regular AB's for him to be had if we let him do it.
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How soon do you think Suzuki might be back? Or is that already kinda known, I just missed it? If he's still out a ways, Mancini/Mastrobuoni in RF don't seem so overwhelmingly good that Nelson couldn't get some of their RF starts?
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Ross said today Suzuki could return this weekend in a best case scenario.
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I don't think DHing is the best thing for Velasquez' development. I suspect his time on the ML roster will be brief.
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Ross said today Suzuki could return this weekend in a best case scenario.
Maybe he has to practice his base running.
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I don't think DHing is the best thing for Velasquez' development. I suspect his time on the ML roster will be brief.
You might be right, although between playing every day against lefties, rotating in the DH spot, giving the other OF's days off, there could be plenty of AB's for him if we wanted to do that. Honestly Bellinger probably needs to be benched against LHP if he doesn't start showing some signs of life before too long.
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You might be right, although between playing every day against lefties, rotating in the DH spot, giving the other OF's days off, there could be plenty of AB's for him if we wanted to do that. Honestly Bellinger probably needs to be benched against LHP if he doesn't start showing some signs of life before too long.
Uh, Bellinger's doing fine the past week. If he does in the future what he has been doing, he'll be okay. I'm wondering if another outfielder doesn't indicate some first base time in his future.
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We're still dealing with small sample sizes, but he is 1 for his past 10 and only has a .531 OPS for the season. Still too early to tell one way or the other for Bellinger, but if he has a full month of April of that, we probably need to at least start tempering our hopes for a big comeback season.
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I'm confident that Bellinger signed with the Cubs with the understanding that he would be given every opportunity to build up his value for future contract purposes. He's going to have to be terrible offensively for several weeks at a minimum before they are likely to consider pulling him from the lineup or platooning him.
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Bellinger hasn’t been that great vs lefties like ever, right? JR suggestion to protect him a little seems fair, against lhp
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In 2019 his OPS vs LHP was .982.
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We're still dealing with small sample sizes, but he is 1 for his past 10 and only has a .531 OPS for the season. Still too early to tell one way or the other for Bellinger, but if he has a full month of April of that, we probably need to at least start tempering our hopes for a big comeback season.
I hate to cite "bad luck" but Bellinger has looked better than the numbers indicate. I still think a platoon is probably best but not giving up on him yet.
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I think the most encouraging and important thing for Bellinger so far is that his strikeout rate is in line with 2019-20. If he maintains that, he’ll be good.
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I think the most encouraging and important thing for Bellinger so far is that his strikeout rate is in line with 2019-20. If he maintains that, he’ll be good.
Agreed. The least encouraging is that his quality of contract is pretty crappy, but the swing passes the eye test (which is about as nebulous a measure as there is, I know).
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Bellinger worked hard to stay alive tonight, and got crucial RBI hit. Happy for him, happy for us! He has had some extended AB, and I'd think will have a chance to bundle some hits at some point. Like you guys have noted, he doesn't look overmatched.
Career his OPS is about 120 points better versus righties than lefties, ~.730-OPS versus lefties. When he's killing righties, being 120 points worse versus lefties isn't that bad. As P2 mentioned, when his season OPS was in the 1000's in 19, he was in the .900's vs LHP. I'd just think when a guy hasn't been able to stack much success for a few years, *if* he's struggling it might just be nice to let him have the easier AB for a while, and see if some momentum and confidence can get built up.
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After the game the TV guys had a story in which Seiya is expected to be ready for the west coast trip. Fun!
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Even though some here dont think I like Japanese players I do like Seiya.
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Cubs now with top run-scoring offense in NL. And the top BA in baseball.
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If they can continue to run a .350 BABIP, this offense should be pretty good.
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I don't believe the teams of 2015-2019 could have pulled off last night's comeback. Too many rally killers in the lineup. When they were rolling last night, player after player was making some kind of contact.
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Didn’t the Cubs do basically the exact same comeback against the Mariners in 2016 with the Cishek meltdown and Lester walkoff bunt?
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Don't remember that game, just all the ones where rallies fot killed by one K after another.
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The Lester walkoff bunt game. That was something.
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What was the game where Travis Wood made a really nice catch playing in LF? Same game!
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If they can continue to run a .350 BABIP, this offense should be pretty good.
Cubs also have the fewest K's in the league, although several teams who have played more games have a lower K-rate. (Cardinals one of them.).
All early-season stats get skewed by a 14-run game. Won't be any more of those all season. So looking at composite stats now is just for fun, not meant to assume any conclusions.
I do suspect that the modest K-rate is going to be a thing? Even a long-swing guy like Bellinger extends some AB's. I suspect even this small sample suggests that K's will not be a huge thing for this team. And as we all understood, neither will be lots of HR's.
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All early-season stats get skewed by a 14-run game. Won't be any more of those all season.
There's craig bringing his Nitro Nic hate to the entire 2023 Cubs offense now.
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Cubs also have the fewest K's in the league, although several teams who have played more games have a lower K-rate. (Cardinals one of them.).
All early-season stats get skewed by a 14-run game. Won't be any more of those all season. So looking at composite stats now is just for fun, not meant to assume any conclusions.
I do suspect that the modest K-rate is going to be a thing? Even a long-swing guy like Bellinger extends some AB's. I suspect even this small sample suggests that K's will not be a huge thing for this team. And as we all understood, neither will be lots of HR's.
25th in ISO, 8th best K%, 20th in BB%.
BABIP
1) Phillies .370
2) Cubs .350
3) Blue Jays .339
Highes BABIP for a team last year was the Red Sox at .313.
Cleveland is the closest analog to the Cubs for last year, they had more contact and a similar ISO. The ended up with a wRC+ 99 compared to the Cubs wRC+ 98.
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Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
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5m
Source: The Chicago Cubs have extended All-Star outfielder Ian Happ: 3 years, $61 million. No options. Deal starts in 2024.
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Have to admit, I didn't see that coming. Happy to see that move done!
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Surprised that Happ would take only a three-year guarantee.
Agents seem to love long-term deals (at least if the player is coming off a good season).
Reasonable to infer that Happ really wanted to stay a Cub.
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I like that! A guy and his family can get by for a lot of years on $60M, so nice for him. Not a super-long contract with risk of bad-money burden for Hoyer, not Heyward-type risk. May be that the season starting well, that maybe Happ sees the team and the direction having a chance to work and to be competing for playoffs now and beyond. I love it.
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A guy and his family can get by for a lot of years on $60M, so nice for him.
:D
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A guy's gotta eat!
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Blue, on the ISO and BABIP, it's 10 games in. Small sample. I posted the top-scoring-team-in-league not as an ITYS like I think it's real or sustainable. Nobody thinks we're going to be the top-scoring team in the league, or BABIP .360 all year long.
But I do think it's fair to suggest that just as some favorable things can be fluky and unsustainable sample-size mirage, I think that can sometimes also be true for unfavorable things? I suspect that the 25th-ISO is kinda fluky and isn't going to remain true? Dansby, Mancini, and Bellinger all have histories with good ISO, even when they weren't getting a lot of hits. Don't think it's predictable that they're going to be ≤.100 ISO guys going forward, based on a 10-game sample. Their ISO's will go up, as the team BABIP goes down. Both reversions towards the norm are pretty safe to assume.
*Dansby's been a 25-HR guy with ISO ≥.170 for several years now. I think the 0.050 ISO is pretty obviously fluky, don't you?
*Mancini's been a .150-.200 ISO guy, I assume <.100 ISO is the exception and not the new predictor?
*Bellinger was .150-.250 ISO guy all along, even in his awful years; I don't think ~.100 ISO is going to be predictive?
There will be some warm days and the wind will sometimes blow out. Won't be any more weather days like the March opener.
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Fabulous news about extending Happ!
Gotta reward our guys who've done everything asked and have proven their value!
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Yeah I'm surprised Happ only went for three years too, especially since he's heavily involved in the player's union, and those guys usually want to try to push the market up for the rest of the players in the union.
It might be like craig said that he's liking the direction of the team, and being teammates with guys already locked up like Swanson and Hoerner for the next three years is appealing.
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Blue, on the ISO and BABIP, it's 10 games in. Small sample. I posted the top-scoring-team-in-league not as an ITYS like I think it's real or sustainable. Nobody thinks we're going to be the top-scoring team in the league, or BABIP .360 all year long.
But I do think it's fair to suggest that just as some favorable things can be fluky and unsustainable sample-size mirage, I think that can sometimes also be true for unfavorable things? I suspect that the 25th-ISO is kinda fluky and isn't going to remain true? Dansby, Mancini, and Bellinger all have histories with good ISO, even when they weren't getting a lot of hits. Don't think it's predictable that they're going to be ≤.100 ISO guys going forward, based on a 10-game sample. Their ISO's will go up, as the team BABIP goes down. Both reversions towards the norm are pretty safe to assume.
*Dansby's been a 25-HR guy with ISO ≥.170 for several years now. I think the 0.050 ISO is pretty obviously fluky, don't you?
*Mancini's been a .150-.200 ISO guy, I assume <.100 ISO is the exception and not the new predictor?
*Bellinger was .150-.250 ISO guy all along, even in his awful years; I don't think ~.100 ISO is going to be predictive?
There will be some warm days and the wind will sometimes blow out. Won't be any more weather days like the March opener.
Those should slug more and adding Seiya will be a bigger help, but this isn't going to be a team that has power to its core. This is probably as close to best case Cubs offense as you get. Maybe the the team ISO .150 which is pretty meh.
With Swanson the increase in walks and decrease in K% are encouraging. With his power, he isn't an elite MaxEV guy, his power has recently has been more consistently barrelling the ball and being just good enough. That isn't always a consistent power source. Now, I don't think he's going to end with Nick Madrigal ISO, but there is a non-zero change he's south of .170. Dansby is fine at SS, but the offense needs greatness somewhere.
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Really glad for the Happ extension, both that he's staying with the team, and that we don't have to hunt for a replacement bat for him in the upcoming FA market, which looks like it's going to be pretty ugly.
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Good news about Happ.
I saw a shirt on a game I was watching that said Happy and Hoerny on it.
I think Im gonna buy one.
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I am both happy and impressed by Happ agreeing to this extension. Of all the players who insisted they wanted to remain a Cub, Ian Happ put his money where his mouth was. Gotta give him a lot of credit. It's pretty rare for a player to genuinely honor his loyalty to a franchise and its fan enough to forgo what would have almost certainly been a bigger payday. That's particularly true of someone who has been a leader within the union.
https://theathletic.com/4406661/2023/04/12/ian-happ-cubs-extension/
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Sounds like Rizzo encouraged Happ to stay with the Cubs:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ian-happ-spoke-anthony-rizzo-230601001.html
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On @670TheScore, Cubs GM Carter Hawkins said he expects to see Seiya Suzuki back with team tonight here in LA. @nakamichiusa also spotted Jeremiah Estrada on a flight to LA yesterday. We’ll get official roster movement pregame this afternoon.
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Wow wow wow. Seiya no surprise, but Estrada, that's news.
Who's gone? I imagine Mastrobuoni, Velasquez, Merryweather, and Torrens are the four vulnerables.
As the president of Mastrobuoni's fan club, I think he's been super unfortunate in his AB's. Has had a lot of solid contact that got caught. And Ross always plays him against tough pitches, it seems, whether by intention or by coincidence. Reds game, 9th inning down a run with runners on, he ripped one that looked like a double, but because the 1B was really close to the line it got snared. Yesterday, worked a count and ump called ball 4 as a strike, when it was two full baseballs above the strike box; then Miles grounded out. He's got options, so probably a pretty easy send-down. But I think he's going to get a bunch of big-league hits sooner or later, given the opportunity. He's a good hitter, just no power. Not a premium RFer, though, and I'm sure he's not that good in the infield either.
Kinda weird, after having such awful bench bats last year, that a guy who can hit as well as Mastrobuoni might get sent down.
For Velasquez, how often do guys with 2.550 OPS get sent down? :):). Sure wouldn't have happened last year.
I'd have no objection to Merryweather going, myself. I know he's supposed to be fast, and his slider can look impressive, and he was for a week or two the Toronto intended closer. But he looks so unconfident to me, and throwing a strike seems more luck than intent. I know he's out of options, but I can't imagine a big-league team claiming him. And if they do, who cares?
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Ideally, you would be able to option guys who are having early season troubles. Losing someone who is out of options based on a few weeks of subpar performance is to be avoided if possible.
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Then option Velasquez and Mastrobuoni, and keep Merryweather and Torrens.
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But I agree that Mastrobuoni has looked pretty good at the plate. It's not a bad thing to have more decent players than you have roster room for.
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Who's gone? I imagine Mastrobuoni, Velasquez, Merryweather, and Torrens are the four vulnerables.
Rios.
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Nope.
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Guessing Rios----because he hasn't been playing much.
And, Velazquez---because he's mainly a RFer, same as Suzuki.
Guessing versatile Mastrobuoni stays. And Merryweather stays too because bullpen needs a full complement of eight.
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We'll be interested to see if Torrens will ever play or do anything productive. I'm not a fan of carrying 3 catchers, normally. The only time the 3rd catcher plays is as a courtesy, "need-to-give-him-a-start-to-keep-him-semi-fresh."
I get that catchers get injured, so at some point catcher 3 can become catcher 2. And that our catchers are old. So having a no-options 3rd C is their choice for now.
It's just awkward for roster construction.
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If you're going to carry only 2 catchers, you need to have someone on the farm who you feel you could bring up in a pinch. Who would that be currently?
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Yes, Play, I understand their choice. I realize the Cubs don't have any decent, ready catcher prospects, and that is why they are forced to give away a roster spot for Torrens, and to effectively go with a 25-man roster. My point more was that it's kind of a bummer to have a wasted roster spot, needing to be burned for contingency protection.
To your specific question: IF you sent down Torrens and he got claimed, Nunez or Amaya would need to be the contingency guy. Perhaps as the season progresses, Amaya will settle in sufficiently and he'll look adequate as a contingency guy, and they'll be able to free up the Torrens spot for a guy with a role.
I kinda doubt Torrens would actually get claimed. How many teams both have no catcher-prospect or contingency available, AND think he can actually catch OK, AND are willing to give up a roster spot for a 3rd-C contingency? All it takes is one, so maybe there's one or several such teams; but I'm guessing there's a decent chance he'd clear just fine, *if* they were to hypothetically decide they wanted to use that spot.
Teams have gotten by with 25-man rosters for years, obviously. So for the Cubs to roll with a 25-man roster plus roster plus Tollens, it's fine.
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Nunez started 74 games at catcher for the Rockies in 2021. So, he has major league catching experience and is kind of guy you'd park at AAA for an emergency.
Guessing that Cubs just like Torrens and want to keep him.
When clubs kept only 10 or 11 pitchers, it was pretty common to keep a third catcher----typically a guy who could hit, preferably from left side.
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I could've sworn Torrens pulled a hamstring the other night. hint hint
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Craig's boy optioned to Iowa.
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Poor Mastro. Hopefully he rakes in Iowa.
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Mastrobuoni is no great loss. He's never shown even in the minors that he's got the bat to be an everyday player and if it's mediocre defense at multiple positions you want, Morel is a better option. Right now I'd rather have Valazeuez, Rios, and Torrens on the roster.
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Mastrobuoni's a scrub.
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As P2 mentioned, it's nice to have some depth, maybe. Seemed like a lot of the Theo years , especially after 2016, the bench guys seemed really bad. It's kinda fun to have a landscape where a guy like Mastrobuoni is just a good true-blue hitter, but there isn't room. I know it's just a small-sample size and probably a fluke, but Morel might be kinda having a breakout season, but there isn't room or need yet. Mervis is off to a excellent start, with a .423 OBP thus far, but not opportunity yet. Velasquez is off to a hot start, but they've got opportunity to let him show if he can sustain it. For the previous year or two, we've had guys like Heyward, Frazier, and Hermosillo getting bundles of AB. It's possible that perhaps those days won't come back again. Maybe within the foreseeable future?
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Rios in starting lineup tonight at DH.
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As P2 mentioned, it's nice to have some depth, maybe. Seemed like a lot of the Theo years , especially after 2016, the bench guys seemed really bad. It's kinda fun to have a landscape where a guy like Mastrobuoni is just a good true-blue hitter, but there isn't room. I know it's just a small-sample size and probably a fluke, but Morel might be kinda having a breakout season, but there isn't room or need yet. Mervis is off to a excellent start, with a .423 OBP thus far, but not opportunity yet. Velasquez is off to a hot start, but they've got opportunity to let him show if he can sustain it. For the previous year or two, we've had guys like Heyward, Frazier, and Hermosillo getting bundles of AB. It's possible that perhaps those days won't come back again. Maybe within the foreseeable future?
I agree with some of that, but where is this evidence and Mastro is a good hitter?
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Mastrobuoni has hit at 123 wRC+ at the AAA level in almost 800 PAs.
As a prospect, FG had him at 55 hit tool. Really good.
He has so few big league ABs that nothing to contradict the AAA performance and scouting. Agree with Craig that hit in some hard luck in April.
As a prospective utility guy, stuff to like with his hit tool. As a prospective regular, not really because of lack of power. Versatile—another plus.
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Mastrobuoni has one season where he managed an .800 OPS at AAA, at age 26 in his third go-around. FG had him at the #37 prospect in the Rays' system before last season. He's a AAAA player who has some value as a yo-yo guy. If you have a better option healthy, he belongs in the minors.
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To Whom It May Concern:
Miles Mastrobuoni Application To Deeg Fave Club.
REJECTED!!
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McKinstry seems to do something positive for the Tigers almost every game.
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Ian Happ current slash line:
.349 .481 .628
Happ says his agent now looking for a loophole in that contract extension.
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To Whom It May Concern:
Miles Mastrobuoni Application To Deeg Fave Club.
REJECTED!!
Always there with the on-point, fact-based counterarguments. You're like our very own Tucker Carlson.
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Always there with the on-point, fact-based counterarguments. You're like our very own Tucker Carlson.
Actually, I already gave facts and then you thereafter cherry-picked those facts to carve out a portion that suited your denial of Mastrobuoni’s application to the Deeg Fave Club.
In the name of decency, think about reconsidering his application in 60 days.
Also, Curt informs me that the charitable contribution you owe to Dusty’s favorite charity should be greater than the $50 you volunteered——something about the cost of golf clubs for needy kids.
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Interesting slash line for Yan Gomes.
.233 .226 .533
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Actually, I already gave facts and then you thereafter cherry-picked those facts to carve out a portion that suited your denial of Mastrobuoni’s application to the Deeg Fave Club.
In the name of decency, think about reconsidering his application in 60 days.
Also, Curt informs me that the charitable contribution you owe to Dusty’s favorite charity should be greater than the $50 you volunteered——something about the cost of golf clubs for needy kids.
Wow, hard-hitting stuff there, Tuck.
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Interesting slash line for Yan Gomes.
.233 .226 .533
I was wondering how that could be possible until I remembered that sacrifice flies (but not sacrifice bunts) count against your OBP but not against your batting average. Sure enough, Yan has one SF and zero walks.
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Hughes up; Velazquez to Iowa.
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Going into Saturday nights game, Cubs tied with Jays for best batting average in majors (.282) and Cubs #6 in majors in OPS.
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Hughes up; Velazquez to Iowa.
His own fault. When he couldn't get his BA over .750, it was obvious his days were numbered.
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You’re twisting what I said. I didn’t want to extend Baez and was fine with trading him. I would have taken Baez in a trade from the Tigers for nothing and have less years and money than what the Cubs owe Swanson.
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You said you’d rather have Baez current contract here going forward than Swanson’s current contract here going forward, right?
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His own fault. When he couldn't get his BA over .750, it was obvious his days were numbered.
Seems to me that Cubs current 26 man roster is a vit odd in terms of the OF.
It’s just 12 games, granted, but Bellinger has played every single CF defensive inning and Happ has played every LF defensive inning.
Thought that Happ is done playing CF but beats me who’s the backup CFer?
Suzuki played zero CF innings in 2022 and the RF alternatives (Mancini, Wisdom) are not going to play CF.
Meanwhile, Rios has played ZERO defensive innings anywhere and Torrens has played THREE defensive innings (catcher).
Cubs can’t do this indefinitely. Seems like Cubs either need to bring up and find a 40-man spot for Tauchmann or bring up Morel. Just can’t see keeping Rios AND Torrens much longer. One has to move off active roster sooner or later.
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You said you’d rather have Baez current contract here going forward than Swanson’s current contract here going forward, right?
Yes I’d take 5/$120 on Baez over 7/$177 on Swanson. Less money, years and AAV. You might have even gotten something from Detroit for taking the contract.
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I can see the argument for that but prefer Swanson and his contract over Baez and his contract.
Think there is a ton of volatility in Baez going forward compared to Swanson.
Kind of says something about taking on the Baez contract that you seem to think Tigers would add on just to take Baez off their hands. Don’t see Cubs looking at Swanson that way.
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Neither guy is going to age well and I’m still scared that teams are going to quit throwing Swanson many fastballs and just give him a steady diet of off-speed pitches like the Dodgers are doing.
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Neither guy is going to age well and I’m still scared that teams are going to quit throwing Swanson many fastballs and just give him a steady diet of off-speed pitches like the Dodgers are doing.
Is there anything specific to Swanson that causes you to say that he won’t “age well?”
Get it that the Generic Player—averaging all players in the MLB universe—tend to decline at certain age intervals. But, that’s a statistical tool. There are many shades of difference among individual players in baseball history. We generally don’t know beforehand who is going to fit where. Some guys age earlier than expected. Some later. Some of that variance pertains to health, injuries, competitiveness, mental acuity, myriad other factors. Can take all of everyone and figure out an average——but the average is just part of the story.
So, what is specific to Swanson?
Or, just talking the law of averages on the “age well” meter?
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Swanson is defensive dependent at SS and SS defense doesn’t age after 30. As he loses range with a below average arm he won’t be elite any more.
On offense he does damage almost exclusively on fastballs and he’s strike out prone. His power isn’t because he has great max exit velocity’s (raw power), but more from barreling a high percentage of balls in the air. That type of power can disappear as you lose bat speed are teams just quit throwing you fastballs. Swanson can be a perfectly fine SS in his thirties, just not someone you want to be paying $25 million a year too. I would feel a lot better about him if he’d hit off speed pitches, but that doesn’t seem to be something he can do yet.
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Dansby must have stole CUBluejays girlfriend.
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Fun with numbers…
Bellinger has gone 13-for-42 (.310) with three homers, three steals and a 5:5 BB:K over his last 11 games.
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Yeah it looks like he's finding a groove, and hopefully this is the start of something good for him.
By the way, CurtOne is never right about anything, and I'll never acknowledge him as ever being right and making a good point about something. Therefore, I won't ever say he was right that perhaps I needed to be a little more patient about Bellinger, because Curt being right and making a good point about something is just a preposterous impossibility.
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Now if he keeps it up how quickly do we look to extend him?
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I think Curt has already signed a lifetime contract with us, Dusty. He stays even if he doesn't keep it up.
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His strikeout rate is still very low. That's still the most encouraging part of his performance by far.
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Swanson is defensive dependent at SS and SS defense doesn’t age after 30. As he loses range with a below average arm he won’t be elite any more.
On offense he does damage almost exclusively on fastballs and he’s strike out prone. His power isn’t because he has great max exit velocity’s (raw power), but more from barreling a high percentage of balls in the air. That type of power can disappear as you lose bat speed are teams just quit throwing you fastballs. Swanson can be a perfectly fine SS in his thirties, just not someone you want to be paying $25 million a year too. I would feel a lot better about him if he’d hit off speed pitches, but that doesn’t seem to be something he can do yet.
All fair points, but I differ some in emphasis.
Generically, the typical player on average loses some defensive skills at some point after 30. But, each player is a different guy. A host of elite defensive SSs have been elite well into their 30s.
A few: Aparicio had an elite defensive year at age 39. Vizquel had an elite defensive year at age 40. Campaneris elite thru age 35. Concepcion an elite defensive year at age 35. As Curt and Dave P. can attest firsthand, Rabbit Maranville was a terrific defender thru age 37.
Nobody can project who won’t be elite past age 30. All we can really say is that the generic SS on average will decline, but as to individual guys, no. Just a sample.
As to Swanson offense, is there a study that says a guy with exceptional ability to barrel the baseball is more likely to lose power when aging compared to a guy with raw power/max exit velocity?
Losing bat speed might affect the latter type of guy more than the former. Is there a study that contradicts that notion? Some guys don’t lose power at all when aging but lose some overall hitting ability to all fields. Hank Aaron used to hit the ball hard all over the field and hit for average, but became more of a pull hitter late career and declined in average but still hit 40 homers at age 39. Indeed, there’s a case that power is the last thing to go.
Think we have to be careful about making definitive inferences about any player 5,6,7 years out based on the Generic Average. Players are different. Baseball is full of unpredictability and is the farthest thing from a hard science. So, not really comfortable making any firm statements of future performance about Swanson. We’re really just guessing if we try.
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1B focus has been mainly about Hosmer, as in, when will he be released.
A case can be made that Mancini has been worse.
At least Hosmer has been playing a good defensive 1B so far. Mancini botched the hop on the Betts AB that could have ended the game today. Yeah, Mancini more likely than Hosmer to actually start hitting, but in the minuscule 14 games played so far, Cubs are -0.5 bWAR at 1B——less than replacement level performance and shades of the abysmal 2022 team 1B performance.
At this rate, Mervis gets a shot sooner rather than later. Hoping that Mervis isn’t awful defensively. Sure helps to have a 1b who can makes plays around the bag.
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That's been my fear all along. Bellinger will do so well he'll want more than we can afford. These rotten bast@rds have no loyalty. He'll probably re-sign with the damb Dodgers.
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With Happ and Suzuki signed, and PCA looming on the horizon, I doubt that the Cubs have any intention of resigning Bellinger, regardless of how good or bad he is this year. Unless Mervis disappears into the shadows.
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I agree there is little to no chance they extend or resign Bellinger.
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Bellinger is a pretty good defensive 1B and Mervis isn’t. With DH being open and Bellinger providing lefty power it would be something I’d look at if he hits enough.
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If Bellinger continues to hit, he's going to want to go somewhere where he can get a longterm deal to play CF. The Cubs won't be in play.
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We're still too early one way or the other on Bellinger (I'm still holding out some judgment!), but if he shows he's back to being a good player, it definitely doesn't hurt to have good players around in some capacity. Plus, he might like the Swanson/Happ/Hoerner core that's starting to develop and might want to come along for the ride on that too if he doesn't necessarily need top dollar. I think we should be open to a team friendly contract regardless of what might be coming up through the pipeline.
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If Bellinger continues to hit, he's going to want to go somewhere where he can get a longterm deal to play CF. The Cubs won't be in play.
I'm not sure their is a huge difference in pay between 1B and CF.
By AAV oin 23
1) Trout
2) Freeman
3) Goldschmidt
4.) Votto
5) Springer
6) Olson
7) Marte
8 ) Bellinger (including his buy out)
9) Abreu
10) Nimmo
11) Rizzo
12) Bell
13) Buxton
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Agree with JR. Good players who can field and hit are hard to fine. What goes up must come down, and every player has hots and colds, of course; so one hot week doesn't prove that Bellinger is going to be a good hitter, obviously. But if the season plays out and he proves to be good, consider your budget and consider making a very good offer. The Cubs hardly seem over-supplied with good hitters who can play good defense, nor does their budget capacity seem exhausted.
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PCA is a good prospect, but I'm not sure how much offense he's going to supply? The season will be good to track. A smallish guy, he might be kind of a Hoerner? smart likeable BABIP guy, but modest HR and modest walks? PCA might have more HR than Hoerner, probably; but also probably won't have the contact capacity, so probably more K's and lower average and lower BABIP.
If Bellinger projects as an .840-OPS guy, just as a hypothetical example, and PCA as a .750-OPS type guy: I'm not sure that PCA's defense is that much superior? I admit I also worry that PCA might become kinda injury prone. Some of his athletic stuff is fun to watch, but lots of diving and rolling and creative base-running can sometimes lead to injuries too?
In the ideal, Bellinger emerges as a good player, and PCA sustains a good season and continues to look like a premium prospect.
1. You get a draft pick for Bellinger, and lots of financial relief and space, both as his substantial contract comes off and as PCA plays for cheap for years.
2. But if PCA is looking premium, he might provide a trade option like the Cubs haven't had like ever. *IF* he's really good, imagine including him as a centerpiece in a trade for something we need, like catcher or whatever?
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PCA is a good prospect, but I'm not sure how much offense he's going to supply? The season will be good to track. A smallish guy, he might be kind of a Hoerner? smart likeable BABIP guy, but modest HR and modest walks? PCA might have more HR than Hoerner, probably; but also probably won't have the contact capacity, so probably more K's and lower average and lower BABIP.
If Bellinger projects as an .840-OPS guy, just as a hypothetical example, and PCA as a .750-OPS type guy: I'm not sure that PCA's defense is that much superior? I admit I also worry that PCA might become kinda injury prone. Some of his athletic stuff is fun to watch, but lots of diving and rolling and creative base-running can sometimes lead to injuries too?
If Bellinger projects to be an OPS 840 guy, and PCA projects to be a OPS 750 guy, is Bellinger worth 20 million dollars per year more than PCA? Or would they be better off having PCA in CF at 1 million per year, and a top third baseman or pitcher at 20 million per year?
I don't know the answer to that, but that is the specific question that Hoyer has to answer, all things being equal, even if you ignore the question of how long of a contract will Bellinger want if he does project as above?
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No good outfielder wants to play 1B. Bellinger, if successful with the Cubs, will sign with a team wanting an outfielder longterm. Just not a fit for the Cubs.
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Do you think he’d turn down more money to play first?
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Yes, exactly, those are the questions to be asked. I don't know the answers. Part of me thinks that we need all the hitting we can get; and that we may have financial capacity to be adding, not just replacing? To ask your question in a different way:
*Replace Bellinger with $20M 3B. Roll with PCA + $20M 3B (acquired via FA); add a 2nd-round compensation pick taken at ~pick 70..
*Keep Bellinger and add $20M 3B (acquired by either FA or via PCA trade). No 2nd-round comp pick.
With the Cubs not having an overwhelming budget, and with some good pitching prospects in the system, I'm kinda wondering whether we might hypothetically be able to fund a championship roster by having pitching costs modest and enabling dollars to be disproportionately invested on players?
2nd, with PCA available as a trade chip, that might broaden your pool of players that could fill 3B (or C, or whatever.). For example, the concept of adding a $20M 3B via FA is fine, but what if there are none? Maybe you can get one via trade, with PCA as lure, when dollars alone couldn't have supplied one?
Just tossing ideas, not advocating for anything.
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No good outfielder wants to play 1B. Bellinger, if successful with the Cubs, will sign with a team wanting an outfielder longterm. Just not a fit for the Cubs.
I assume you're right, bit I do admit I wonder how true that is, or how much 1B money he's walk away from to get OF gig? *IF* a guy kinda likes a lot of action, 1B is the busiest spot on the field. Ground balls that you field, throws from every infielder, pickoff throws, etc.. Sometimes a CF doesn't touch a ball all game. I'd think some guys who are kinda action-junkies might actually prefer 1B? More sociable, too, you can be visiting with every baserunner, and coach, and umpire, if that's something that appeals.
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Do you think he’d turn down more money to play first?
Bogus question. The Cubs aren't going to offer Bellinger more to play 1B than a team that wants him to play CF.
Also, PCA projects to have more power than Hoerner, certainly. Who knows how the hit tool will play, that's why they call them prospects, but if he makes it he's not going to be a singles hitter.
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Bogus question. The Cubs aren't going to offer Bellinger more to play 1B than a team that wants him to play CF.
Also, PCA projects to have more power than Hoerner, certainly. Who knows how the hit tool will play, that's why they call them prospects, but if he makes it he's not going to be a singles hitter.
You have no clue what any team is going to offer. His hypothetical is that he'd turn down 1B to play CF so I think that is fair hypothetical to answer.
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You have no clue what any team is going to offer. His hypothetical is that he'd turn down 1B to play CF so I think that is fair hypothetical to answer.
For a guy whose value is largely dependent on defense at a premium position, the idea that the Cubs would offer him more to play 1B than a team that wanted him as a CF is nonsensical. You can play theoreticals all day but it’s just not going to happen.
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For a guy whose value is largely dependent on defense at a premium position, the idea that the Cubs would offer him more to play 1B than a team that wanted him as a CF is nonsensical. You can play theoreticals all day but it’s just not going to happen.
It's very plausible that Bellinger might sign to play 1B. He's played a lot at 1B: 214 GS at 1B and 335 GS in CF. This is very similar to AL Oliver (43 career bWAR) who played a lot at 1B and CF.
It depends on money, where he wants to play, how he thinks his skills will translate over time.
And, it might be the Cubs. We don't know about Mervis defense at 1B. Very possible he will prove to be a DH only type. We will see. And, we don't know for certain Mervis will hit like a 1B/DH. Hosmer and Mancini are not long-term guys here.
If Mervis takes over 1B this season and hits and plays solid defense, then Bellinger won't be a 1B candidate for Cubs in 2024. But, that's quite an assumption.
For those who can see the future, congratulations.
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Do you think he’d turn down more money to play first?
Do you think the Cubs would (or should) offer Bellinger more money than a team that wants him to play CF?
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Do you think the Cubs would (or should) offer Bellinger more money than a team that wants him to play CF?
Everyone is jumping the gun here. If he returned to MVP numbers what will he be worth to any team regardless of position?
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Everyone is jumping the gun here. If he returned to MVP numbers what will he be worth to any team regardless of position?
Yeah, but there’s a lot of room in the middle. Let’s say he goes .245-320-450. That has huge value for a good glove CF, not so much for a 1B. And that’s a lot more likely than returning to MVP numbers.
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I would love for Bellinger to rake this season and the Cubs flip him at the deadline this year for a top prospect from a contending team. No signing a long term deal, no free agency...get a prospect. Even if we are in the hunt at the deadline. HIs value will be its best-if he plays well.
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Bellinger is 27, still young and the same as many "prospects" coming up. Let's account for injuries. Happ, Suzuki, PA could get hurt. Torn miniscus, an oblique that won't heal, even outfielders sometimes hurt their arms. I'd rather have lots of eggs before I start counting chickens.
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Yeah, but there’s a lot of room in the middle. Let’s say he goes .245-320-450. That has huge value for a good glove CF, not so much for a 1B. And that’s a lot more likely than returning to MVP numbers.
Josh Bell .266/.362/.420 with not great defense was worth $16.5 AAV. All Bellinger really needs is a little more BABIP luck and his OBP can go up a fair bit. You could see .260/.340/.470. With the ability to play the OF that would be a pretty interesting player.
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Wednewski mystifies me. He looked good last fall and in spring training, but in his starts he is getting hit. Tipping? Confidence? Not ready yet?
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Wesnewski has done better since I badmouthed him
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Same thing with me about Bellinger. If we badmouth everybody on the roster Curt, this team might actually accomplish something this year.
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Taking a short break from the badmouthing, but there's a lot of best case scenario stuff going on with the Cubs to start the year. Bellinger is starting to look good. Wisdom is hitting like Mike Schmidt. Yan Gomes of all people is now hitting .270. Hoerner, Swanson, and Happ are all hitting over .300. If tonight's score holds up, we're in the second wild card spot and only 1/2 game behind the Mets with a game in hand for the first one and on a 97 win pace.
Hey you never know right?
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I don't think any of us had written in Patrick Wisdom as MVP before the season. :):). Yeah, it might not last...
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Same thing with me about Bellinger. If we badmouth everybody on the roster Curt, this team might actually accomplish something this year.
Hey, in March, I called Cubs 3B alternatives “putrid.” So, let me take credit for Wisdom’s performance so far.
Sutcliffe has said from early-on that something different with Wisdom’s approach this season. yeah, Sutcliffe roots for these guys, but who knows.
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Wisdom now slugging .788.
That leads the majors!
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reb, I mentioned this in today's game. But there was mention entering spring training that Wisdom had played a lot of last season with a bad back, I believe it was. For a long, tall guy with a big swing, I could imagine that would be pretty wrenching on a back that's hurting. A bad back could also factor into some of his reduced defensive prowess. Hope he can stay comfortable and locked in for as long as possible. Obviously it won't stay like this, come August when he's in some 2-40 slump and swinging through everything, it might be hard to remember right now.
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On top of everything else, we start today tied for 4th in the majors in run differential.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/patrick-wisdom-cody-bellinger-power-cubs-to-big-win-vs-a-s?partnerId=zh-20230418-883772-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230418-883772-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=CXOLzlg2SG2G1i22mffwyRQWHv%2BqmRCRLecWg4RmM1zeNlxA1rONjZEeo0Y5Qs46&bt_ts=1681825207758
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Wesnewski has done better since I badmouthed him
The reverse Craig - Nic Jackson curse.
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I have been impressed with Wisdom this year. He looks like a different hitter. Although, even when he was overall mediocre, he went through streaks where he carried the team, so who knows.
In the meantime, enjoy Wisdom and Bellinger. And we need to start ragging on Mancini a lot more.
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Maddie Lee [Sun Times]
@maddie_m_lee
Cubs injury updates:
-Kyle Hendricks threw a sim game today. 2 innings, 36 pitches. Felt great, per Cubs.
-Codi Heuer is scheduled to throw 1 inning tomorrow
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I have been impressed with Wisdom this year. He looks like a different hitter. Although, even when he was overall mediocre, he went through streaks where he carried the team, so who knows.
I believe the Cubs are trying to avoid using him against guys pitchers he doesn't match-up well against and use Madrigal instead since he has a different skill set.
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That seems like a wise approach to things.
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I believe the Cubs are trying to avoid using him against guys pitchers he doesn't match-up well against and use Madrigal instead since he has a different skill set.
If so, (and I agree), I hope that becomes a standard methodology with the Cubs.
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Wisdom has started 13 of the Cubs 15 games.
Didn't start in game 2 against Woodruff and Brewers (after starting game 1 against Burnes). Can make a case didn't start because of the match-up.
Didn't start 4/9 against Jon Gray and Rangers---came in game in 6th inning.
So, has started 87% of Cubs games. So, sitting him has not been much of a factor. Two games he didn't start were games that Rios DHed and Madrigal started at 3B.
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Yeah, last night Madrigal got the 3B start, but Wisdom still DH'd. So I assume it was Ross just wanting to keep Madrigal sharp defensively.
I agree with Jeff's comment, Madrigal has looked pretty acceptable at 3rd. Maybe over a larger sample he'd be exposed. But he hasn't looked outclassed, not like back when Bote used to play 2B, for example.
In the offseason, posts had assumed that Madrigal was useless as a utility guy, as a 2B-only player. But he seems pretty OK now as a 2B/3B utility guy, especially since Hoerner can always slip over to SS, as when Dansby missed a start. So Madrigal directly/indirectly provides coverage for all three spots.
Not sure who would play CF is Bellinger needed some rest, or got hurt. Morel or Velasquez, for better or for worse? Otherwise, it seems the roster has a reasonable amount of coverage, if somebody needed a 10-DL.
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I believe the Cubs are trying to avoid using him against guys pitchers he doesn't match-up well against and use Madrigal instead since he has a different skill set.
This has been mentioned more than once on the telecasts…they are picking and choosing spots for him.
It helps that he is pistol-hot right now.
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I tried to steal third once in high school. I was out. My coach let me know in no uncertain terms that it was okay to steal third, but it was not okay to get caught. Ever.
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Yeah, last night Madrigal got the 3B start, but Wisdom still DH'd. So I assume it was Ross just wanting to keep Madrigal sharp defensively.
I agree with Jeff's comment, Madrigal has looked pretty acceptable at 3rd. Maybe over a larger sample he'd be exposed. But he hasn't looked outclassed, not like back when Bote used to play 2B, for example.
In the offseason, posts had assumed that Madrigal was useless as a utility guy, as a 2B-only player. But he seems pretty OK now as a 2B/3B utility guy, especially since Hoerner can always slip over to SS, as when Dansby missed a start. So Madrigal directly/indirectly provides coverage for all three spots.
Not sure who would play CF is Bellinger needed some rest, or got hurt. Morel or Velasquez, for better or for worse? Otherwise, it seems the roster has a reasonable amount of coverage, if somebody needed a 10-DL.
Madrigal has 1 K in 25 PAs so far. He looks like he’s basically back to what he was pre-injury - no Ks, no walks, no SLG, a respectable % of line drives that find holes. A guy who always makes contact and can play a couple of positions adequately has value as a bench player. His offensive profile is pretty unique.
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This has been mentioned more than once on the telecasts…they are picking and choosing spots for him.
It helps that he is pistol-hot right now.
Being hot is helping a ton, I just meant his numbers might look better this year because he’s going to avoid guys he just can’t hit.If so, (and I agree), I hope that becomes a standard methodology with the Cubs.
This has been what the Giants have done for a couple years. You are obviously limited in how many guys you can do it with. It hasn’t also worked for the Giants, but is better than R/L platoon.
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There is really interesting article in the Tribune on Dansby Swanson's pre-game infield drills and how others have been incorporating it into their own pre-game preparation. Since seeing the article requires a subscription, I've copied and pasted it here.
How Dansby Swanson’s 5-minute routine helps the Chicago Cubs shortstop — and other infielders — stay ready on defense
By Meghan Montemurro
Chicago Tribune
Apr 19, 2023 at 7:09 am
OAKLAND, Calif. — Nearly three hours before first pitch, Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson trekked from the outfield batting cages to the grass in front of the visitors dugout at Oakland Coliseum.
He signaled to major-league coach Jonathan Mota, who already had two practice mitts ready for Swanson on top of a white towel, his blue Fungo bat laying adjacent.
Over the next five minutes, Swanson progressed through a sequence of defensive drills and fielded roughly 55 hops off Mota’s Fungo. He incorporated a small tan glove and a black flat mitt to force precision, centering the ball to field it cleanly. The smaller surface doesn’t leave much room for error. Movements must be short with clean footwork. The short hops simulate the last hop an infielder could see off ground balls in a game.
The drills help create confidence for different types of plays an infielder could encounter. It turns in-game reads into second-nature adaptability when a ball takes a tough hop.
“It really gets you in the best place possible to consistently finish plays,” Swanson told the Tribune. “The combination can get you mentally ready, it’s consistent and it’s something you can control every day. The better defenders make the easy plays easy. You have to consistently make the plays you’re supposed to make. It’s a good prerequisite before fielding real ground balls.”
Swanson’s low-stress, five-minute routine, which he tries to incorporate into his pregame work twice during a three-game series, began in Atlanta under the tutelage of third base coach Ron Washington. Swanson liked to tell Washington how his mom, Nancy, was actually the first person to expose him to those type of drills, recalling how she would do the same thing with a tennis ball when he was a kid.
Washington’s pregame work with infielders is so renowned around the league that members of the Cubs coaching staff asked Swanson about it before he had a chance to bring it up after signing him in December. The team embraced the drills for Swanson and any other Cubs infielders who wanted to utilize the techniques, which already were on the staff’s radar from watching Washington and Braves infielders.
That isn’t to say the Cubs haven’t featured defensive infield work before this season. But Swanson’s different perspective and experience brought more options for how the Cubs want to attack that area pregame. Mota compared it to making paella: “Everybody’s putting in a little bit of something.”
“When you come to a different organization, you have to be open minded. And for us, it’s the same way,” Mota told the Tribune. “This is who you are? OK, we’re going to work with this. These guys are here for a reason and it’s because they’re good.
“They ask for feedback, like, this is how I feel, this is what I see, what do you have for me? It comes with failure, which is part of the game. It’s just learning from those mistakes.”
The Cubs’ receptivity to Swanson bringing those drills to Chicago — and the way some teammates have adopted parts of the routine — aided him in adjusting to a new organization.
“There’s obviously so much newness and to be able to take something that’s kind of always been a part of your routine, to continue that, provides almost like a safety net,” said Swanson, who is coming off his first Gold Glove award. “It’s not taxing and your legs are still fresh for the game. It’s one of the best routines out there in my opinion.”
How the coach hits the balls is the key element. It starts approximately 5-10 feet apart, with the infielder starting on his knees. The ball — hit to glove side, back hand and head on during the sequence — must hop at the right point for the work to be effective.
Swanson praised Mota for how good he’s become in less than three months with the drill. But that didn’t stop Swanson from joking about how Mota should watch instructional videos of Washington, the decadeslong master.
“He challenged me and I like a challenge. Let’s go,” Mota said with a grin. “He’s a leader and he says a lot of right things. The way he talks to his teammates, his peers, they talk about defense and the why’s. That allows other guys to be more open.”
Swanson stressed the value of an infielder trusting to play with one hand. Whenever he teaches young kids, Swanson preaches adapting to a one-handed defensive game rather than a two-handed, get-in-front-of-the-ball approach.
“It’s given me more confidence because I’ve been able to evolve to do more things with the glove with one hand as opposed to two because your range gets so much more limited when you have to get in front and play with two hands,” he said.
Nick Madrigal has watched Swanson go through the drills and tried it out, calling it “awesome.” Every infielder has their own style of preparation. Madrigal likes utilizing both short-hops drills and on-field Fungo grounders at second and third base. Nico Hoerner is more feel-based with his defense, honing in on working the angles to balls. He can often be seen taking a variety of grounders at second base, including drills from his knees. Sometimes coaches have to remind Hoerner not to overwork himself before games.
Patrick Wisdom picked Swanson’s brain about the routine to better understand the process of what he’s trying to accomplish. Learning new cues and understanding how they help position the body has been part of a defensive payoff for Wisdom.
“Now I’m able to digest that and figure it out and then kind of make it my own,” Wisdom told the Tribune. “It’s different thoughts on playing through the ball and how for him, he presses through and the key words he uses. I’m able to take that into practice off live Fungos, like, OK, this thought puts me in this position.”
Three weeks into the season, moments of carryover from drill work to game situations are apparent. During Monday’s win in Oakland, Hoerner faced a ground ball right at him that took a bad last hop. It didn’t faze him, and Hoerner quickly adjusted his hands to make the play. In another situation, during the win over the Seattle Mariners on April 11 at Wrigley Field, Wisdom threw out Eugenio Suárez at first to end the third inning on what seemed to be a routine grounder. But the play required an on-the-fly adjustment by Wisdom as he read the ground ball’s path.
“I literally thought as that ball was midway to me, I kind of felt stuck,” Wisdom recalled. “But then I was like, ‘Oh, just press through it like Dansby does.’ It happened so fast, it was like muscle memory from what we’ve been working on.”
Added Mota: “At this level, guys are here because they are athletes, but we still have to go over simplifying things and talk about anticipating. When our guys anticipate three things before it happens, one is going to happen and it’s always going to put you in the right place.”
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Mooney is reporting that Hendricks is throwing 90 mph.
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Mooney is reporting that Hendricks is throwing 90 mph.
With enough of a tailwind, once or twice every start? Sure, I suppose it’s possible.
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say Taillon only misses a start or two and Wesneski has a couple more starts like his last one. What do you with Hendricks when he’s ready?
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I'd have to guess Wesneski is going to have to pitch well to keep his spot over Hendricks. Any slip ups while still sitting with an ERA in the 6 range probably means he gets bumped until someone gets hurt or if Hendricks is ineffective.
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Trade him and Fulmer to Detroit for McKinstry.
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I'd have to guess Wesneski is going to have to pitch well to keep his spot over Hendricks. Any slip ups while still sitting with an ERA in the 6 range probably means he gets bumped until someone gets hurt or if Hendricks is ineffective.
I don’t think that’s wrong, but my hypothetical was premised on him pitching well.
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I don’t think that’s wrong, but my hypothetical was premised on him pitching well.
Yeah it kind of did, didn't it? :)
I'd probably say it's either a 6 man rotation for a while or Hendricks goes to long relief. Wesneski would have to pitch very well to keep his spot, though. It's not always fair, but a rookie has to pitch pretty close to lights out to keep a spot ahead of a well established vet like Hendricks.
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Interesting that last two games in which Madrigal and Wisdom at 3B/DH, Madrigal is the guy starting at 3B.
Maybe because Madrigal not your typical DH-type, but interesting that Ross has Madrigal on defense and Wisdom at DH in these circumstances.
Sometimes, Ross will sub out the DH (Madrigal running for Torrens late, for example) when doesn’t matter a guy’s position when in field. DH can be flexible that way.
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I know we could have injuries and slumps, but if Bellinger and Wisdom could keep this up for a considerable number of games...
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I actually expected this team to be fun to follow this season, but I admit this has been considerably more fun than I expected so far.
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If Wisdom can keep it up for another 144 games, he will break Berry Bonds home run record.
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If Wisdom can keep it up for another 144 games, he will break Berry Bonds home run record.
He prefers to go by Michael Jack Wisdom at this point.
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I know we could have injuries and slumps, but if Bellinger and Wisdom could keep this up for a considerable number of games...
Bellinger is the one with the track record, and his current level is not as video game as Wisdom, so he's certainly the more likely to be able to "keep this up". But Wisdom being anything more than a borderline starting-caliber player is gravy so ride it as long as you can and maybe he'll surprise.
One thing about Bellinger, whatever happens you can see why he was an MVP once. One of the prettiest swings in baseball and just built like a textbook superstar.
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Pay him.
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...Wisdom being anything more than a borderline starting-caliber player is gravy so ride it as long as you can and maybe he'll surprise....
Wisdom has a career OPS of .789; two years ago he was .823. Even last year when he was playing hurt, his .725 was still better than league average.
Last year only 14 teams had team OPS > .700, and this year only 14 are above .723.
Relative to those sort of league medians, maybe a .789 guy isn't quite as fringy as we think?
I guess I'm wondering if we don't under-respect Wisdom, or perhaps over-respect what it's like for the rest of mlb? I was certainly in the under-respect camp myself, no question. The way he ended last year, I thought he was a liability. I serious considered that perhaps guys like Mastrobuoni, Madrigal, or Morel might end up being preferable on the anti-awful scale, and might share or take over most of his AB.
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A .725 OPS from a 1B/DH or bad 3B (which is what Wisdom was last year) is nothing to write home about. If he's more the guy he was in '21 than yeah, that's a pretty good player.
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Wisdom seems slightly less vulnerable to high heat so far this season. That helps a lot.
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Deeg, I certainly wasn't suggesting that last year's Wisdom was anything to write home about. I thought looking for a 3B was hypothetically a great was to improve, had there been anybody. (I'd imagined Bogaerts for 3B...). And yeah, I was a guy who thought it entirely plausible that Wisdom might whiff his way out of the major leagues this season, and Ross might mish-mash with Mastrobuoni, Madrigal, Morel, McKinstry, Bote. Zero "I told you so" from me; I was definitely a Wisdom agnostic/skeptic.
But even last year there were only 14 3rd basemen with OPS >.725. Even at his worst, .725 and 25 HR maybe isn't totally awful? I vaguely recall offseason reference to him having played through back issues last year, anybody else remember anything like that? Or am I misremembering? I kind of ignored that, and assumed it would be about as meaningful as Almora's annual excuses or spring solutions that never worked.
But in retrospect, I wonder if he was playing through some stuff that impacted flexibility defensively and in the box?
I guess at this point, in retrospect, it may have been the wrong explanation to assume 2022 was the predictive norm, with 2021 the non-predictive fluke. Given that the composite OPS is .782, perhaps there is no current reversion-to-the-mean reason to presume that once he does so, that he's going to be awful? Reversion to the mean certainly predicts that >1.000 OPS isn't going to sustain. But maybe it's reasonable to figure that predictive mean might be ≥.750, variably north of big-league average or of 3B-average?
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Deeg, I certainly wasn't suggesting that last year's Wisdom was anything to write home about. I thought looking for a 3B was hypothetically a great was to improve, had there been anybody. (I'd imagined Bogaerts for 3B...). And yeah, I was a guy who thought it entirely plausible that Wisdom might whiff his way out of the major leagues this season, and Ross might mish-mash with Mastrobuoni, Madrigal, Morel, McKinstry, Bote. Zero "I told you so" from me; I was definitely a Wisdom agnostic/skeptic.
But even last year there were only 14 3rd basemen with OPS >.725. Even at his worst, .725 and 25 HR maybe isn't totally awful? I vaguely recall offseason reference to him having played through back issues last year, anybody else remember anything like that? Or am I misremembering? I kind of ignored that, and assumed it would be about as meaningful as Almora's annual excuses or spring solutions that never worked.
But in retrospect, I wonder if he was playing through some stuff that impacted flexibility defensively and in the box?
I guess at this point, in retrospect, it may have been the wrong explanation to assume 2022 was the predictive norm, with 2021 the non-predictive fluke. Given that the composite OPS is .782, perhaps there is no current reversion-to-the-mean reason to presume that once he does so, that he's going to be awful? Reversion to the mean certainly predicts that >1.000 OPS isn't going to sustain. But maybe it's reasonable to figure that predictive mean might be ≥.750, variably north of big-league average or of 3B-average?
His defense doesn't seem to have been the result of injuries, since he doesn't look especially good at 3B and Madrigal seems to be ahead of him on the defensive pecking order.
I don't think we can make any assumptions on which is the predictive season. It's a good start, and hopefully he keeps it up. But he's always been extremely streaky.
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Team-hitting flukiness.
*Last year, 6th highest in K's, 17th HR's.
*This year, 26th in K's, 7th in HR's. (5th in HR/game).
I often think of K's being a routine correlating price of HR's. Last year, though, gobs of K's but without much payoff in HR's. This year, the K's have vanished but the HRs are good (thus far). Having a favorable K/HR ratio is a great path to a strong offense.
It's a couple of weeks. As we know from many previous Baez/Schwarber seasons, teams can hit one month, but sometimes come August and September, guys have one-by-one fallen into slumps, from which they sometimes never get back out of. Most likely by August this fun run of hitting will be hard to remember, and we'll have the challenged offense that fans and fangraphs had anticipated. But it's sure fun for now.
This is maybe dumb, but is it possible the HR output might get even better?
*dansby's been a 25-HR guy the last few years, but hasn't hit one yet.
*Mancini hit 18 last year, but has been a 21-35 HR guy in his four seasons prior.
*Seiya's only got 1 HR thus far.
*Happ's had 24 and 25-HR seasons, but has only 2.
*So it seems hypothetically possible that all four of those guys might sooner or late have some months where they chip in a few more HR's?
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I think you are right that strikeouts and home runs are fairly well correlated. It is true that HRs have been good, while srikeouts have gone down. But keep in mind that Wisdom, with about a 33 percent strikeout rate, has hit more than half of the entire team's home runs. Granted, his strikeout rate is down from last year, but that is still pretty hefty.
I agree that the home run rate for the rest of the team is likely to go up. Of course, it isn't very likely that Wisdom is going to hit 72 home runs this season either. These things tend to even out over the course of the season. But I think it is very likely that this year's team offense will be substantially better than last year's team offense, even if they get little production on the MLB level from Mervis, or anyone currently in Iowa. If Wisdom had NOT hit 9 home runs, we would probably still be cheering on Bellinger and his team leading 5 home runs.
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My hope was that the Cub offense would be at least average in runs scored. So far, so good.
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Among NL teams, the Cubs are currently #1 in runs scored and #1 in team WHIP. That'll play.
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Among NL teams, the Cubs are currently #1 in runs scored and #1 in team WHIP. That'll play.
And #1 in fewest runs allowed, and (therefore) #1 in run differential.
Never would have imagined that even this early in the season.
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Here's a piece of trivia: only four innings have been played by Cubs with jersey numbers in the 40s this year. Nobody until #47 Hughes came up on April 17; the four innings all belong to him.
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Here's a piece of trivia: only four innings have been played by Cubs with jersey numbers in the 40s this year. Nobody until #47 Hughes came up on April 17; the four innings all belong to him.
Actually all of the Cubs wore a number in the 40's just a week or so ago.
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Kyle Hendricks went 3 IP in a sim game in Arizona Saturday. Scheduled for side-session bullpen on Tuesday. Cubs manager David Ross said a Minor League rehab outing (affiliate TBD) will be the next step for the veteran pitcher.
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Would be a great story if Hendricks came back and was effective again.
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Matt Mervis in Triple-A...
78 PA, .262/.397/.557, 5 HR, 17.9% BB, 20.5% K, .295 ISO
Chicago Cubs starting 1st Basemen...
Hosmer: 57 PA, .250/.316/.365, 1 HR, .115 ISO
Mancini: 73 PA, .232/.250/.333, 2 HR, .101 ISO
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After today, in 66 ABs, Mervis: 4 2b, 5 HR, 15BB, 16Ks, with .288 BA, .410 OBP, .576 SLG, .986 OPS.
Very nice start. He's doing exactly what he should be doing offensively (tho' don't know how he's playing defensively).
Last thing we want is to bring him up prematurely. Mervis still has only 837 MiLB ABs and probably learning a lot each day about playing 1B well.
Let's let him continue to pound AAA pitching and learn as much as he can, so he's truly ready when he does come up this season, presumably.
That time will come, whether due to injury or prolonged ineffectiveness of Hosmer, most likely.
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The 3rd catcher and Rios are bigger wastes of roster space and have less value than Hosmer and Mancini.
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Ill take Rios over Hosmer and Torrens over Barnhartt.
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After today, in 66 ABs, Mervis: 4 2b, 5 HR, 15BB, 16Ks, with .288 BA, .410 OBP, .576 SLG, .986 OPS.
Very nice start. He's doing exactly what he should be doing offensively (tho' don't know how he's playing defensively).
Last thing we want is to bring him up prematurely. Mervis still has only 837 MiLB ABs and probably learning a lot each day about playing 1B well.
Let's let him continue to pound AAA pitching and learn as much as he can, so he's truly ready when he does come up this season, presumably.
That time will come, whether due to injury or prolonged ineffectiveness of Hosmer, most likely.
This is maybe dumb. But I admit the incentive of getting a compensation pick after round 1 of the draft if a guy finishes top-3 in ROY voting crosses my mind. *IF* Mervis was to come up soon, hit right off the bad, and play regularly for the next five months, it might be fun both to get improved production and to also end up getting a comp pick besides. No idea whether he'd actually be productive enough, or if Ross would play him enough, for that to prove true. But it could be a fun bonus value.
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Ill take Rios over Hosmer and Torrens over Barnhartt.
My point is made.
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To get a rookie performance compensation pick, the player has to be on pre-season Top 100 list of two sources from ESPN, mlb.com Pipeline, and BA. Don’t believe that Mervis has met that requirement. So, no comp pick. Well, unless Mervis stays in minors most of this season and accrues less than 60 days major league service time AND therafter is on two Top 100 Prospect lists post-2023. So, maybe we should root for him to stay at Iowa!
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Thanks, reb. I think that's a more detailed and nuanced set of requirements than had been included in one of the earlier reports. My recall is that it had simply said top-3 in ROY, without the top-prospect lists. But your set of requirements has stipulations beyond that, and is apparently more true. Link with more details about the Prospect Promotion Initiative in the cba, or PPI, dealing with rookies and draft pick conformation follows.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-prospect-promotion-incentive-rookie-year-cba/ja5ts8eaxcuv85xujnzriafb#:~:text=A%20measure%20in%20the%20new,became%20immediately%20apparent%20in%202022.
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Bellinger to the paternity list.
The Dodgers have had Betts, Muncy, Phillips, Gaterol all on the paternity list within the last week. What the heck was going on with that team 9 months ago.
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Normal life.
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That lines up roughly with the All Star break.
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Winner…
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Still roughly 20% of the team being able to pregnant in 1 week is a lot.
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Gary Varsho's last year in the majors was 1995, with the Phillies, and the season ended on October 1. Daulton Varsho was born on July 2, 1996, nine months and one day later.
Gary's wife must have been very happy to see him get home after the season.
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You guys will have to explain this 9 months later thing to JR.
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It may be time to acknowledge that Justin Steele is good.
If there is a coach in the Cubs organization who is responsible for Steele's fastball, we should consider giving him a bonus.
How about a world where Steele starts game 1 of a playoff series, then the Cubs follow that up with Brown/Horton/Franklin? How about a fully-developed Kohl Franklin staring a game 4?
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I don’t know if you can teach a cut-ride fastball to someone. I do know that the Cubs have been looking for pitchers that have Steele’s characteristics.
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Justin Steele has the 4th lowest ERA in MLB. Only Gerrit Cole has a lower ERA with more innings.
1. Sonny Gray: 0.62 ERA (29.0 IP)
2. Shohei Ohtani: 0.64 ERA (28.0 IP)
3. Gerrit Cole: 0.79 ERA (34.0 IP)
4. Justin Steele: 1.19 ERA (30.1 IP)
5. Luis Castillo: 1.52 ERA (29.2 IP)
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Cubs Team ERA by Catcher:
Tucker Barnhart: 4.46 ERA (72.2 IP)
Luis Torrens: 4.50 ERA (6.0 IP)
YAN GOMES: 2.87 ERA (119.0 IP).
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Jed Hoyer just now on
@ParkinsSpiegel
said he didn't want to break news. But....I think we can confirm:
1) Michael Fulmer will work outside of high leverage as he works things out.
2) Caleb Killian is your Friday starting pitcher.
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18-16 game with mucho run and hits for both teams. Two Cub pitchers gave up no runs: Duffey and Riley Thompson.
Duffey is an experienced and effective big-league pitcher who has the capacity to throw strikes. I think he might be a consideration for callup, to help the Cubs kinda struggling bullpen.
But Riley Thompson has been starting all along. Pitching relief might not mean anything, just a Hendricks thing. But I also wonder whether perhaps they might want to give him some relief experience in case he might be approaching consideration as a multi-inning reliever?
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Yes, seems like Riley Thompson on the verge of serious major league consideration.
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I found this Sharma piece on Smyly enlightening.
https://theathletic.com/4456966/2023/04/27/drew-smyly-unique-curveball/
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In yet another reminder that some odd results can appear in the first month of the season, the Cubs are in third place in what is supposed to be the weakest division in the NL, but also have the 4th best record in the NL. The only team with a better record outside of the NL Central is Atlanta.
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Yahoo still gives the Cardinals the best odds of winning the World Series among NL Central teams, yet they're in last place.
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2023 Chicago Cubs (MLB rank):
.276 batting average (2nd)
.346 OBP (2nd)
.448 SLG (2nd)
119 wRC+ (2nd)
+46 run differential (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)
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Brett Taylor expects to see Mervis called up within the next couple of weeks: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/04/28/whenever-matt-mervis-arrives-eric-hosmer-is-eager-to-help-him-succeed/
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Yahoo still gives the Cardinals the best odds of winning the World Series among NL Central teams, yet they're in last place.
Cards are eight games behind the Pirates.
An over/under date when Cards pass the Pirates?
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Bellinger reinstated, Torrens DFA’d…
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Hard to argue with that move given how Velasquez has performed.
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I would have rather gotten rid of Rios
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Yes, me too but it's hard to imagine keeping 3 catchers all year long. That said it's a different world with 26 man rosters and a limit of 13 pitchers. An extra roster spot, which teams are struggling to figure out how to use.
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Velazquez in starting lineup tonight at DH and batting 9th.
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Remember that doesnt mean Torrens is gone.
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Never made much sense to have basically no true OF-reserve backing up Bellinger and Happ. They played every inning of every game two weeks into the season. Now with Velazquez here to stay Cubs have taken care of that.
Hosmer/Mervis situation is interesting. Seems clear that Cubs promised Hosmer a roster spot for X period of time. What the X is, who knows, but was clear early in spring training that Mervis had no real shot for opening day.
From Hosmer’s end, he probablt pretty much knew from day one that Mervis taking over at some point. And, getting playing time early meant that a decent performance from Hosmer might interest another organization to pick him up after Mervis crowds him out. At a league minimum salary, he might get a shot elsewhere. He just needed playing time for awhile—which he’s getting.
When Mervis replaces Hosmer and Morel replaces Rios, roster will be better—and greater positional flexibility. Injuries might/will impact things going forward, but the odd April backend roster—with two guys getting minimal playing time—will be phased out.
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A very interesting column from Sharma and Mooney on Yan Gomes and why he is so valuable to the Cubs, with an emphasis on his ability to adjust to carefully developed pitching plans during a game, and the degree to which pitchers trust him. Ross clearly loves the guy for what he does behind the plate and in the clubhouse.
https://theathletic.com/4465670/2023/04/29/yan-gomes-cubs-david-ross/?source=emp_shared_article
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After so many years of watching Contreras, I was skeptical on the notion that Yan's "soft" catcher skills were going to be that valuable to the team, but now, I get it.
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Maybe it helps to appreciate Gomes’ catching skills now that he’s slugging .563.
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Cubs move: RHP Caleb Kilian optioned to Triple-A Iowa, .and LHP Ryan Borucki’s contract selected from Triple-A
-
Borucki getting rewarded for his Iowa production.
12.00 ERA,
2.1 WHIP. 1
13H/6BB/9IP.
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A day too late
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Cubs hitters with 7+ HR and a .975+ OPS in March/April in modern franchise history:
Cody Bellinger ('23)
Kris Bryant ('21)
Willson Contreras ('19)
Derrek Lee ('05, '08)
Moises Alou ('04)
Sammy Sosa ('01, '02)
Dave Kingman ('79)
Lee Walls ('58)
Gabby Hartnett ('25)
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As gravity asserts itself, the pressure to recall Morel and Mervis certainly grows.
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I was rooting for Bellinger to have a comeback season, but he's doing better than I had hoped.
-
Will be interesting to see who starts Thurs game in D.C.
Steele-Smyly-Wesneski-Stroman going Sunday-Wed. Kilian just sent out and don’t think can be recalled that early. Sampson hasn’t pitched in 3 weeks. Hendricks probably not ready? Assad threw 72 pitches Sunday, so probably wouldn’t come up to start on 3 days rest. Roenis Elias is on personal leave. Nick Neidert? A bullpen game?
Wonder if maybe Ben Brown might get a spot start? Other candidates?
Will be at game so hoping for Brown.
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Brown is on the 40, so it’s theoretically not that much of a stretch. Would be fun to see him pitch for sure.
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A full month into the season, and Cody Bellinger is arguably one of the top-10 players in MLB.
158 wRC+ (14th)
1.4 WAR (9th)
7 HRs (t-7th)
.604 SLG (7th)
22 runs scored (t-6th)
All with plus defense in center field and four stolen bases.
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Team Defensive Runs Saved
https://fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved
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Perhaps Taillon will be back to take the Thurs afternoon start in D.C.
Sharma says “Jameson Taillon should return from the injured list in D.C.”
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Dusty, thanks for that interesting stat re short list of Cub hitters with 7+ HRs and ,975+ OPS!
Bellinger joins quite a group, including the great Gabby Hartnett (from 1925).
Multiple folks likely deserve some credit for Bellinger's early-season improvement, but, sometimes, guys mostly just need a change of scenery!
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I meant to thank Dusty for short list of hitters Bellinger joined with 7 or more HRs and .975 or higher OPS through April.
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Gomes hit on helmet from a backswing, so
Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Gomes is not officially in concussion protocol, per Cubs, and they will continue to evaluate him overnight/morning.
Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Miguel Amaya en route to DC
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Cubs GM Carter Hawkins on Christopher Morel and Matt Mervis, the team’s April performance and looking ahead to the trade deadline: “There are obviously some guys down in Triple A right now that are pretty hard to ignore. We’re talking about that every day.”
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Amaya has been good this year and Ive always been intrigued by him.
It'll be interesting to see how he does.
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Team Defensive Runs Saved
https://fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved
A for positioning: D for fielding or (and I'm in this camp) SSS noise?
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Mark Leiter Jr. leads NL right-handed relievers in strikeout percentage at 40.0%.
(min. 10.0 IP)
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Mervis and Morel may not be coming up but at least...The Jonas Brothers are set to make their Wrigley Field debut this summer.
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2023/5/2/23708125/cubs-should-make-cody-bellinger-multi-year-offer
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It seems clear to me at this point that the Cubs are a pretty decent team and that they need a bit of a push to ensure that they will be "buyers" at the trade deadline. That means bringing Mervin up and giving him a shot at 1B which has been a horrific black hole so far. Morel should probably also be brought up before too long.
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Hosmer keeps botching easy bunt plays, and it will be sooner than later…
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I'd bet any second.
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Torrens to Baltimore for cash.
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Norm?
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Norm?
Norm Cash finished his career with 52.0 bWAR——almost identical to recent 1B HOFer Fred McGriff (52.6).
Cash had more career bWAR than five 1B HOFers: Cepeda, Hodges, Frank Chance, Bottomley, High Pockets Kelly.
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In high school, my preferred bat was a Norm Cash special.
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Gomes to the IL. Assad recalled. This should assure some playing time for Amaya.
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Gomes to the IL. Assad recalled. This should assure some playing time for Amaya.
Or not. Concussion IL is 7 days, that'll be back-dated, and Ross will probably just start Barnhart every day.
How long does the Morel-Mervis dance continue, I wonder? When Hoyer has lost the ultimate shill in Brett Taylor he's certainly lost the court of public opinion, but he's clearly not concerned about that.
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Unlikely Barnhart will start tomorrow's day game.
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Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
The Chicago Cubs are calling up top first base prospect Matt Mervis, sources tell ESPN. He's expected to join the team tomorrow as it returns home to start a series against Miami. Mervis, 25, was hitting .286/.402/.560 with six HR in 24 games at Triple-A Iowa. Big power prospect.
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So who's gone?
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Gossip on Twitter is he's not the only one being called up.
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Sampson was promoted and put on the IL for a seemingly 60 day IL placement. Heard Burdi’s name thrown around.
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Glad Mervis is getting called up (hopefully waive Hosmer), but sorry C. Morel isn't getting called up now, too, for multiple reasons.
(Morel is playing in today's Iowa game, while Mervis isn't, suggesting that Morel won't be called up).
Cubs are in a hitting slump and expectations will be high for Mervis. If Morel was up, too, Christopher could deflect some of the pressure off Mervis (and Morel has been a LOT hotter than Mervis!). Morel knows the MLB drill from last season. Mervis doesn't.
I'll hope Cubs (and Cub fans) are VERY patient with Mervis! He's not at all likely to be the answer this season to all that currently ails the Cub offense. Rizzo and Happ got sent back down for more AAA seasoning. It took Baez a while before he started hitting MLB pitching.
Pitching has gotten a TON better in the past 50 years, but even then it was a HUGE adjustment from AAA to MLB. Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt punched out about 40% of the time and hit under .200 with about .350 SLG, less than .700 OPS in his rookie season ('73) after getting plenty of ABs the previous September. Many "experts" thought Schmidt would bust.
Lots of folks probably thought Rizzo and Happ weren't gonna make it and same can be said for many other players, let alone a guy who came out of nowhere in one season and has less than 100 ABs in AAA, less than 1000 in the Minors. NOT a lot.
Hope everyone (including Hoyer and Ross) will be patient with Mervis. He may or may not really make it, but it would be a bummer if he made it AFTER we gave up on him, partly because expectations weren't realistic when he came up.
There aren't many Max Muncy guys, but I'm sure Oakland really regrets not being more patient with him.
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Glad Mervis is getting called up (hopefully waive Hosmer), but sorry C. Morel isn't getting called up now, too, for multiple reasons.
(Morel is playing in today's Iowa game, while Mervis isn't, suggesting that Morel won't be called up).
Cubs are in a hitting slump and expectations will be high for Mervis. If Morel was up, too, Christopher could deflect some of the pressure off Mervis (and Morel has been a LOT hotter than Mervis!). Morel knows the MLB drill from last season. Mervis doesn't…….
Aside from simply hitting well—and with power—Mervis has a very modest K rate of 16% (17% in 2023) at AAA level. And, he fills a position of need (1B/DH). So, he’s up. That low K rate bodes well for the majors.
Morel is hitting even better than Mervis at AAA. But, there are a few other factors at play.
One, Morel had a poor post-break performance last year with Cubs (.194 BA, albeit with some power, and 32% K rate) and kind of needed to “rehabilitate” his performance level at AAA.
Two, Morel Ks considerably more at AAA (28%) than does Mervis. Math says that’s only 4% lower than his K rate with Cubs. Not brutal by any means but maybe suggests a bit more seasoning.
Third, a quick review of where he’s playing at Iowa shows: 9 starts in CF, 8 starts at 3B, 3 in RF, 2 in LF. Not seeing any starts at 2B or SS. Hasn’t started at 3B for about last 10 days or so. So, still being developed as a utility guy and maybe more of a OFer?? Could need some more development time for all that, maybe.
Would think that Morel comes up within another month, or sooner, but seems a bit more complicated figuring out what’s better for his development and where he plays and how he fits on major league roster—compared to Mervis.
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Wisdom has 7 Ks in his most recent 8 PAs. His K rate on the season is now 37%——identical to his career K rate.
Slugging .587. No complaints.
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He’s reverted back to swinging thru fastballs up and out of the zone…
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Justin Steele leads the NL with a 1.45 ERA.
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25th anniversary of Kerry Wood's 20K game. The most dominating pitching performance I've ever seen, and it's not that close.
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Wood had a Game Score [Bill James] of 105—-highest of any MLB game ever.
Max Scherzer pitched a no-hitter in 2015 with 0 BB and 17 Ks. Game Score of 104. Very close to Wood’s game but not quite.
I attended the Koufax perfect game vs. Cubs in 1965. 0 BB and 14 Ks. Game Score of 101. Not bad.
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Best/worst run differentials:
1. Rays +114
2. Rangers +77
3. Braves +55
4. Cubs +47
30. A’s -120
29. Royals -70
28. White Sox -67
27. Marlins -57
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I hope that lunkhead Jed tries to extend Bellinger at some point soon.
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That's not fair, I guess. Jean had the courage to sign Bellinger in the first place.
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Yeah, the whole point of Bellinger signing a one-year deal was to reach free agency after rehabilitating his value with a good season. Boras strategy.
So, to hope for Hoyer to extend him mid-season is contrary to the Boras strategy.
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That's not fair, I guess. Jean had the courage to sign Bellinger in the first place.
It was kind of a perfect storm. Bellinger wanted a one-year prove-it deal. The Cubs were desperate for lefty bats and a CF, and a big-market team with an embarrassingly low payroll. Jed hates long-term deals and loves reclamation projects with big names. There was pretty much no way the Cubs weren't going to at least try and sign him - just a question of whether Jed could actually do it (which he did, so credit to him for that).
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Wesneski on pitching to Amaya.
https://twitter.com/ryan_a_herrera/status/1655347620334673922
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Among NL teams, the Cubs are #4 in the NL in major offensive stats and #1 or #2 in major pitching stats and yet are only a .500 team.
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Morel is being called up for tonight's game.
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Wesneski on pitching to Amaya.
https://twitter.com/ryan_a_herrera/status/1655347620334673922
Thanks, reb, that's really encouraging. My recall for Amaya is that he'd got good reviews early on for leadership and maturity. He was an honors student in HS, so presumably is variably smart and did his homework. His father is the mayor of his home town. Mom a human resources person. Seems like a family background that might be consistent with a guy who'd be good at the soft stuff of catching.
I recall being impressed with him at the cubs convention prospects interview session. His own answers were calm and clear, he came across as an articulate, comfortable person. And he functioned as translator for Alcantara. Gave a good vibe as a calm, mature guy.
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For almost last two weeks, Morel has been playing almost exclusively CF and a bit of RF.
Earlier in the Iowa season, he was playing almost exclusively 3B.
If he’s up to start mostly at 3B, seems like the sequence of Iowa playing time is a bit peculiar.
Don’t see Bellinger sitting to accommodate Morel in CF.
So, as probably expected, Morel figures to be in some kind of utility role getting starts somewhere, including DH.
In any case, good thing that by early May BOTH Mervis and Morel are here, that guys who were hardly playing at all (Rios and Torrens) are not here, and that a likely move that figures to happen eventually (Hosmer) didn’t interfere with the younger guys being up by early May and still more flexibility to come if/when Hosmer is moved out.
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Thanks, reb, that's really encouraging. My recall for Amaya is that he'd got good reviews early on for leadership and maturity. He was an honors student in HS, so presumably is variably smart and did his homework. His father is the mayor of his home town. Mom a human resources person. Seems like a family background that might be consistent with a guy who'd be good at the soft stuff of catching.
I recall being impressed with him at the cubs convention prospects interview session. His own answers were calm and clear, he came across as an articulate, comfortable person. And he functioned as translator for Alcantara. Gave a good vibe as a calm, mature guy.
Amaya certainly has looked like he belongs, from the hard contact, to his work behind the plate, to the phenomenal feedback he's gotten from big league teammates. Excited for what his future can be, especially after so many injuries, especially under Yan's tutelage.
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I like Amaya.
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Racist.
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Hendricks at Iowa. 5 innings, 2 hits, 4 strike outs, 0 walks.
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That’s nice, but I really don’t want to see Wesneski dropped from the rotation.
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If anyone is looking for some good news, here's some. At least I had not seen this before. It appears that Nico Hoerner does not have a serious hamstring injury.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-feel-they-avoided-big-injury-concern-with-nico-hoerners-hamstring/
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Nick Madrigal is making all the folks here that said he couldn't play 3rd look bad.
-
David Ross is making the Cubs look bad
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Cubs the least clutch team in the majors - by a landslide
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=11,d
Perhaps good news going forward - unless you believe a significant portion of "clutch" is a skill.
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Last in the MLs in "clutch" hitting for 2022 as well. Coincidence?
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Probably, the Cubs worst clutch hitter this year was their best clutch hitter last year (Wisdom)
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Hoerner to the IL. Craig's boy recalled.
Hughes activated. Assad optioned.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/cubs-place-nico-hoerner-on-injured-list.html
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If you missed C Morel's 2-run bomb in the 9th, go to the Cubs website and watch it! (Upper deck to right center!)
We have a REAL talent in that kid! He will have slumps, but he's got the ability that can't be taught to be REALLY special!
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I saw it live. The buzz around the park was palpable. People couldn't believe where that ball landed.
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Morel’s got a real shot to become the kind of hitter we hoped Javy would mature into.
And while his defense isn’t as strong, Morel’s athletic talent is just off the charts. Between that and his strong work ethic, I expect we’ll see the loud tools mature into defensive prowess for Christopher.
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It will be a very a tough deal for Christopher Morel to become a strong defensive player, despite a great arm, plus speed and super fast-twitch muscles, when he's moving all over the field (at the MLB level).
Sure seems like Morel has more than enough talent and the work ethic to become a plus defender, but switching positions all the time at the highest level won't make that easier.
My hope is Morel LIKES playing different positions and embraces the super-sub role, if that's what the Cubs want him to continue to do.
Whatever, keep that kid and his 30+% strikeout rate in the lineup (but not at leadoff). He's a force right now and he's gonna get better!
Morel sure seems like someone Cubs should consider (and groom) to be a CORE player, wherever he plays on D!
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Meghan Montemurro @M_Montemurro
Cubs moves:
RHP Brad Boxberger to 15-day IL with right forearm strain, retroactive to Sunday.
RHP Jeremiah Estrada recalled.
RHP Hayden Wesneski optioned to Triple A.
RHP Nick Burdi selected from Iowa.
RHP Adrian Sampson transferred to 60-day IL to open 40-man spot.
I wonder if this means Hendrix will be taking Wesneski's next start. He threw 80 pitches yesterday, so he's probably about ready.
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You can always count on Jimi.
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I'm not just weary of Taillon, I'm weary of our announcers making excuses for him.
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After watching Christopher Morel hammer 4 HRs in his 6 Cub games, Cody Bellinger said, "I've never seen balls hit like that - honestly."
"The Electric Show" will make some defensive blunders, while moving all over the field, and he will K a lot, certainly at age 23.
However, when pitchers make mistakes with him and they will, he will hit them. Very hard!
Don't want to set the bar too high for Morel, but he sort of reminds me of Sammy, early in his Cub career.
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The Eric Hosmer era is over.
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Cubs moves:
• 2B Nico Hoerner activated
• OF Cody Bellinger to 10-day IL (retro to 5/16) with L. knee contusion
• RHP Keegan Thompson optioned to @IowaCubs
• 1B Eric Hosmer DFA’d
• INF Edwin Ríos recalled
• OF Mike Tauchman selected
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Rios has earned the promotion. His Batting average in Iowa is almost twice as high as it was with the Cubs.
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Ross said if Bellinger wasn’t injured Hosmer wouldn’t be DFA.
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Logic?
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Tauchman and Rios over Velazquez is hilarious.
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Guessing that Tauchman will be here for an extended period, but that Rios will be optioned back next week.
Tauchman has a role here as a lefty bat off the bench with some extra base punch who can play all three OF spots, unlike, say, Hosmer. Out of options, so doesn’t seem that Cubs bring him up only to maybe lose him soon thru waivers. Perhaps has an opt out date in contract if wasn’t up by date certain. Cubs probably want Velazquez playing most everyday (at Iowa) rather filling the OF/bench utility role that Tauchman will be filling. Makes sense.
Interesting that Cubs brought up Rios instead of extra bullpen arm. Cubs going with 12 pitchers at moment——until Hendricks comes back to replace a position player.
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I haven't had opportunity to watch much. Early on I saw Mervis make a couple of good pickups on some bad throws. I noticed in the box score that he had his first error tonight. How has he looked defensively? Like a DH playing 1st? Not awful, but probably not average? Or just fine, a guy you'd be fine with at first if he could hit?
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FWIW in a very small sample size (10 games) advanced metrics have him as about average defensively.
He also has 18 Ks in 45 PAs.
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Waaaaay too early to be making any assessment about Mervis defense long-term.
Statcast OAA has him +1 going into tonight’s game, which will be affected by his error tonight.
If he hits enough to stay here, revisit in August/September.
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Thanks, guys. reb, my feeling is that sometimes when a guy is prohibitively bad, that the eye test can sometimes see he looks awful/stiff/klutzy/range-less right away? If we need 4 months of saber data to evaluate, that might suggest he's got at least a chance to be anti-awful?
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I'm surprised at this discussion. The announcers have praised his play, and my eye test has been positive. I'm far more concerned about his hitting, or lack thereof.
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You’d probably need at least a year or plus of defense for advanced stats to really be worth while. Scouting reports or reports of what the Cubs think would be a better indicator for his defense.
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He looks like an average defensive 1B, which is pretty much what he was billed as. His defense is pretty much a minimal factor in his long-term value. If he hits he makes it, if he doesn't he washes out.
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I'm surprised at this discussion. The announcers have praised his play, and my eye test has been positive. I'm far more concerned about his hitting, or lack thereof.
Thanks for qual observations, and I'm glad that your eye test has been positive.
For sure, whether his defense is average, not quite, or better than won't be relevant if the guy can't hit.
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Mervis has been quite good at scooping bad throws out of the dirt. That is probably the one defensive flaw that could kill a first baseman. He has also looked adequate on batted balls, admittedly, an extremely small sample size. But I agree that it will have to be his bat that keeps him here, and the biggest surprise so far is that his extremely small strikeout rate in all levels of the minors has totally reversed course in the majors. Hopefully, he will be able to adjust to what the pitchers are doing.
The biggest thing that he has going for him is that, unless the Cubs decide to move Bellinger to first base, there is no one on the team of in the minors that is likely to perform better in the short run.
Maybe Morel can give Mervis a few of his extra home runs.
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Steele, Stroman, Smiley, Taillon, Wesnecki Who should really sit when Hendricks returns. I vote for Taillon. I'd rather have Asad than Taillon.
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I think you have stick with Taillon whose problems seem correctible. You invested a lot to get him. Wesneski needs more time at AAA to prove that he belongs back in the rotation.
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I agree. Wesneski should go stay down unless he get's one more start and really dominates.
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What a hateful headline. What a terrible thing to say about Hosmer when they KNEW all that about him when they signed him. Won't accept mediocrity? Then stop signing it.
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/cubs_latest_roster_moves_show_they_wont_accept_mediocrity/s1_13132_38832804
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I think you have stick with Taillon whose problems seem correctible. You invested a lot to get him. Wesneski needs more time at AAA to prove that he belongs back in the rotation.
I don’t think anyone is remotely suggesting giving up on Taillon. But as bad as he is right now, would he be amenable to a couple starts at Iowa to try and figure it out?
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Who knows whether C Morel will he be one of those few who can continue to develop and adjust when the league adjusts to him.
I do suspect this: in the history of the franchise, I doubt ANY Cub player has EVER hit 8 HRs in 11 games, over the 1st 46 ABs of their MLB season.
Phenomenal talent! Let's hope he is one of those who can continue to develop!
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7 hitters who have improved significantly in 2023 (Henry Palattella, MLB.COM)
Patrick Wisdom, Cubs
xwOBA gain: 64 points (to .359)
The bad news about Wisdom’s game is that he has the highest strikeout rate among qualified hitters (37.6%). The good news is that he’s excelling at just about everything else, ranking in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate – both of which are significant improvements over his 2022 numbers.
Striking out will always be a part of Wisdom’s game (this is his third straight season being in the first percentile in strikeout rate), but he’s been able to make up for that this year with the fifth-best barrel rate in all of baseball. In 2021, Wisdom hit .231 with 28 home runs to finish fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. If he keeps up on his current trend, he should easily eclipse those numbers.
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Who knows whether C Morel will he be one of those few who can continue to develop and adjust when the league adjusts to him.
I do suspect this: in the history of the franchise, I doubt ANY Cub player has EVER hit 8 HRs in 11 games, over the 1st 46 ABs of their MLB season.
Phenomenal talent! Let's hope he is one of those who can continue to develop!
He has talent (specifically power) that I never dreamed he had. As you say, everything depends upon how well he adjusts to the pitchers looking for his weaknesses. Baez actually declined as time went on (or perhaps he just peaked out very early. But others have made successfull adjustments, and if Morel is able to, he will be a superstar.
I think his defense will improve at whatever position he plays, but there is no question in my mind is that his career will depend upon how well he can control his strike outs
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On Mets broadcast tonight, noted that the club with the biggest negative drop turning ground balls into outs from 2022 to 2023 is the Braves.
Minus Dansby Swanson.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Kyle Hendricks will make his season debut tomorrow, Ross says.
Jameson Taillon will now start Saturday.
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Patrick Mooney
Senior Writer, Chicago
The Cubs optioned Nick Madrigal to Triple-A Iowa to open a roster spot for Kyle Hendricks, who will face the Mets tonight at Wrigley Field in his first major-league game since last July
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So how long do you carry the truly awful Barnhart (.509 OPS after .554 last season) when Amaya not only needs experience, but appears to be a clearly better option right now? If you're going to use the fact that he's got a player option for next year as an excuse (what a genius move that was) does that mean you're going to carry him for two years?
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They'll hold on to him until they once again can scream, "We won't put up with mediocrity" like they did with Hosmer, even though they knew they were signing mediocrity when they signed the two.
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Amaya's long-term development should supersede one or two extra wins.
*Is he best served catching 4 games a week at Iowa, and DHing a 5th? Build some repetitions? Play in-and-out of some slumps?
*Or better developed starting twice a week for the Cubs? Prioritize defense, learning the pitchers and opposing hitters. Perhaps at the expense of attention to developing his hitting?
He's only got 73 AB in the minors. And over the last four years, the two dozen games he's caught this spring are his first? I understand Hoyer wanting to be a little patient and letting him stack some games away from the pressure?
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They'll hold on to him until they once again can scream, "We won't put up with mediocrity" like they did with Hosmer, even though they knew they were signing mediocrity when they signed the two.
We should bear in mind that the Cubs did not say "We won't put up with mediocrity".
It was the reporter that made that interpretation.
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Interesting stat (via Jordan Bastian)
"In the two calendar years since Wisdom was called up from Triple-A Iowa, he has ranked fifth in the NL with 65 home runs. Only Pete Alonso (89), Kyle Schwarber (75), Paul Goldschmidt (69) and Austin Riley (69) had more in that time period."
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The Cubs run differential is is steadily coming into better compliance with their record.
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Amaya's long-term development should supersede one or two extra wins.
*Is he best served catching 4 games a week at Iowa, and DHing a 5th? Build some repetitions? Play in-and-out of some slumps?
*Or better developed starting twice a week for the Cubs? Prioritize defense, learning the pitchers and opposing hitters. Perhaps at the expense of attention to developing his hitting?
He's only got 73 AB in the minors. And over the last four years, the two dozen games he's caught this spring are his first? I understand Hoyer wanting to be a little patient and letting him stack some games away from the pressure?
If Gomes is the catching savant the Cubs make him out to be, isn't he a really good mentor for Amaya to learn from?
I mean, I get that Amaya has had a lot of injuries lately but he's been in the minors since 2016 and has 1500 ABs or so. It's not like they'd be rushing him. Playing time is a concern, but it's not like Gomes is going to play 5 days a week (especially as his offense succumbs to mean reversion).
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Cubs slash line this season at DH:
192-271-341
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Two-year anniversary of arguably the stupidest and surely the most hilarious play in baseball history.
https://twitter.com/maggiehendricks/status/1662439190171090946?s=20
"The calliope crashed to the ground"
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I remember that first baseman was cut shortly thereafter. I think he's pumping gas somewhere.
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Question: Would anyone here have predicted that nearly 1/3 of way through the season, anything like the following:
Dansby Swanson: 2.1 WAR, 112 OPS+
Xander Bogaerts: 1.6 WAR, 114 OPS+
Trea Turner: 0.4 WAR, 85 OPS+
Carlos Correa: 0.3 WAR, 96 OPS+
Yeah, there is a lot of the season left yet, not to mention the lengths of the various contracts. But still, maybe Dansby should get a little more love. (And god forbid, even the Cubs for signing him for less money than the others got?)
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Cubs trailers in bWAR.
-0.8 Taillon
-0.6 Mancini
-0.6 Fulmer
-0.4 Hosmer
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We don't tolerate inadequacy
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Question: Would anyone here have predicted that nearly 1/3 of way through the season, anything like the following:
Dansby Swanson: 2.1 WAR, 112 OPS+
Xander Bogaerts: 1.6 WAR, 114 OPS+
Trea Turner: 0.4 WAR, 85 OPS+
Carlos Correa: 0.3 WAR, 96 OPS+
Yeah, there is a lot of the season left yet, not to mention the lengths of the various contracts. But still, maybe Dansby should get a little more love. (And god forbid, even the Cubs for signing him for less money than the others got?)
Dansby is exactly what any unbiased observer would have expected him to be. Maybe a little more OPB and less SLG than one might have predicted, but on balance exactly the guy we hoped we were buying. He probably won't be that for 7 years, but that's not really the point. That isn't how baseball free agency works.
This roster has 99 problems but Swanson ain't one.
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Only 99?
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If the Rockies hold on to their current 5-run lead over the Mets……..
Cubs will have worst record in NL.
Needless to say, Cubs now in last place in NL Central.
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Dansby is exactly what any unbiased observer would have expected him to be. Maybe a little more OPB and less SLG than one might have predicted, but on balance exactly the guy we hoped we were buying. He probably won't be that for 7 years, but that's not really the point. That isn't how baseball free agency works.
This roster has 99 problems but Swanson ain't one.
Swanson is a good complementary player if the team has stars and when he is your highest paid player that is a problem. Can anyone really look at the farm system and the current MLB team and see a winner before Dansby is declining?
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Swanson is a good complementary player if the team has stars and when he is your highest paid player that is a problem. Can anyone really look at the farm system and the current MLB team and see a winner before Dansby is declining?
Which of the FA SS he's outperforming would you not make that statement about?
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Swanson is a good complementary player if the team has stars and when he is your highest paid player that is a problem. Can anyone really look at the farm system and the current MLB team and see a winner before Dansby is declining?
Swanson was a 6 WAR player last season AND he’s on a 6 WAR pace again this season.
A 6 WAR player is not simply “a good complementary player.”
Yes, remains to be seen whether can continue this pace for another full season in 2023, but seems like what you’re really talking about is an OFFENSIVE star, and not a player including the entire package that he contributes.
In any case, the focus should not be where Cubs are getting productive performances—which are quite a few, including Swanson most obviously—but where Cubs are not achieving, in Craig’s expression, anti-awful levels.
Too many spots ARE awful…and that just negates the really good performances by the guys doing well, such ad Swanson. We know where those spots have been——I posted the awful DH numbers yesterday. 1B again so far this season. Two very bad rotation spots. Pretty much entire bullpen other than Leiter, Jr. A couple of guys hit homers early in season, but don’t do much else offensively.
And, of course, once again, a dismal failure to hit in clutch spots. Beats me what deal is with that.
I agree that would really help Cubs a lot if had a couple of big-time offensive bats in lineup. But, not always predictable where that can come from over a period of a few years going forward.
And, no, neither you or anybody else has any clue whether Cubs will be good for the remainder of Swanson’s deal, or what the future holds.
Heck, maybe even June will be different than May.
Right now is a low point in the season. Usually a mistake to make any big inferences in baseball when things are too high or too low.
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Swanson isn’t going to be a 6 WAR player for the length of his contract and this is likely the best Swanson that the Cubs will get. His production this year has helped the Cubs the worst record in the National League.
There is a large difference between a 6 WAR player who gets his WAR total from offense and somebody that gets it from defense. So Swanson’s 6 WAR production is that of a complimentary player. If he was an elite hitter it would be different.
The problem is by the time the Cubs get the rest of the roster figured out Swanson won’t be as good unless they are going to blow past the luxury tax. The team doesn’t have the talent at the top of minors to make the great next year or really by 2025 either.
Swanson helped the Cubs sell hope and tickets. The Cubs should have just stuck with rebuild, because now the only holes they have to improve on offense is 1B/3B/DH. The rotation needs help and the bullpen needs a ton of help. The Pirates actually look to be in a much better position than the Cubs for the future and probably the Reds too.
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It is a REALLY good thing that “the only holes they have to improve on offense is 1B/3B/DH”——as you put it. These should be among the easiest positions to add offense.
Notion that this isn’t feasible even by 2025 strikes me as misplaced.
If Cubs can do that, It is immensely valuable to have a 6 WAR shortstop. Swanson has been about a 112 OPS+ hitter since 2020. Quite a few HOF shortstops are in that OPS+ range who were also terrific glove SSs too. Very rare in baseball history that the best hitter on a good club is the SS. That’s just not much of an argument against Swanson, historically.
Several weeks ago I listed a bunch of SSs who maintained excellent glove work into their mid-30s, so not going to repeat that again. Just no way to know if Swanson will be one of those guys. I would not assume otherwise. We just can’t know.
What is a “complementary” player? Ideally, you’d have a couple of sluggers betters than Swanson offensively. I agree with that. Cubs need that. But, Swanson can be immensely valuable doing what he’s doing. Bert Campaneris did that. Pee Wee Reese, a HOFer, did that. Rollins, Aparicio, Tejada, quite a few others, playing alongside a couple big bats. Immensely valuable. We’ll see if Swanson can maintain this level. Can’t know. But, bottom line is that having a SS playing at Swanson’s level now is not an impediment to anything. On the contrary, it’s a big plus.
Doesn’t necessarily have to cost a bundle to add offense at 1B/DH/3B. Maybe catcher too if Amaya turns out to be a hitter. Cubs are currently so bad at several lineup spots that a significant improvement at these positions can totally remake the club’s offensive production in the near future. CAN. I’m not presuming anything one way or the other.
Again, notion that this not doable by 2025 presumes a lot of bad outcomes. We’ll see. I’ll be curious to see how it plays out.
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What's the word on Bellinger? When's he back?
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The Cubs have players locked up long term at LF, RF, SS, 2B. That doesn’t mean the are studs, it just means that those positions are unlikely to upgraded due to inefficiencies with doing so. CF with PCA in AA seems an unlikely add unless it is Bellinger. You could add another corner OF for DH, but that will hurt roster flexibility. The Cubs have made it clear that they want defense over offense at catcher so that leaves just 1B/3B/DH to improve the team on offense.
Who is going to be free agents:
Third Base
2024 Matt Chapman
2025 Alex Bregman
First Base
2024 Rhys Hoskins, Max Muncy
2025 Rizzo, Goldschmidt
Then you have Ohtani who seems unlikely for a bad record Cubs team and Soto.
Plus fixing the rotation and bullpen. Assuming Stroman and Bellinger are Cubs next year and the arbitration guys get around $10 million that leaves the Cubs with a small list of players and about $90 million to fix the roster. Unless they are going to shoot past the CBT that is a lot to ask for this roster.
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For yet another offseason the Cubs added mostly mediocre to bad players, who’ve - predictably - performed at mediocre or worse levels. But sure, moan about the guy they signed who’s actually good because too much of his value comes from defense.
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Deeg, I posted this in The Farm:
We don't need a better shortstop. We need a better Hoyer. Boxleiter, Fullmer, Tallon, Hosmer, Barnhardt, Rios. Jury still out on Merriweather, Mancini, Tuchman. And Bellinger probably won't stick around. Nice off-season, Jedd. But let's keep whining about Swanson. And the future? ESPN did an article on the next stars of the game and the Cubs have two in the top 100, and they aren't in the top 30. Jedd's a dumpster fire. How many big market teams would tolerate this mediocrity?
Added later: the breakdown of ESPN's future stars:
Teams with 5 future stars: Reds, Orioles, Rays, Dodgers
4 future stars: Cardinals and Mariners
3 future stars: DBacks, Yankees, Pirates
2 future stars: Like the Cubs but ranked higher: Marlins, Red Sox, Nationals, Mets, White Sox, Phillies, Athletics, Guardians, Angels.
Teams with 1 future star: Brewers (but at #3) Padres, Rangers, Blue Jays, Braves, Astros.
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The players that the Cubs have “locked up” are good performers, including Swanson. They are not the problem. You can (and should) win with those guys in your lineup.
There are two issues. One is the “awful”——as in violating Craig’s “anti-awful”——performing positions and, two, lack of a major impact bat or two. As to the latter, we are on same page.
Thing is that it is NOT neatly predictable where that comes from. We see that in the Rays lineup. Can’t know what kind of deals are made or high impact a prospect bat may become. If/when that happens, Swanson is type of guy you want as part of your core, as may be other guys under control.
CBT is an impediment to Cubs when in a rebuild. But, wasn’t when were real contenders. So, no reason to think won’t go over CBT again when latter arises again. There is a history there. I see that as a non-issue.
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Cubs are 8-20 since that nice 14-10 start of the season.
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Across the past 14 games, the Cubs bullpen has an 8.05 ERA.
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The players that the Cubs have “locked up” are good performers, including Swanson. They are not the problem. You can (and should) win with those guys in your lineup.
There are two issues. One is the “awful”——as in violating Craig’s “anti-awful”——performing positions and, two, lack of a major impact bat or two. As to the latter, we are on same page.
Thing is that it is NOT neatly predictable where that comes from. We see that in the Rays lineup. Can’t know what kind of deals are made or high impact a prospect bat may become. If/when that happens, Swanson is type of guy you want as part of your core, as may be other guys under control.
CBT is an impediment to Cubs when in a rebuild. But, wasn’t when were real contenders. So, no reason to think won’t go over CBT again when latter arises again. There is a history there. I see that as a non-issue.
The Cubs don’t have a high impact at at AAA or AA since Davis has flamed out. So the chance that the Cubs add that impact bat before 2025 is pretty slim through the minors.
The impact bat in free agency next year is Ohtani. He reportedly doesn’t want to sign the Angels because of their lack of winning. How are the Cubs in this conversation? So where are the impact bats going to come from? Could the Cubs pull off a Soto like trade?
Hoyer is trying to build a .500 level talent team and hope they over preform. Until you get some impact bats on this team you can Swanson up the roster as much as you want, but it isn’t going to get you back into the World Series hunt.
As much as the bullpen has been an issue, the Cubs are 25th in runs scored since May 1st.
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The Cubs don’t have a high impact at at AAA or AA since Davis has flamed out. So the chance that the Cubs add that impact bat before 2025 is pretty slim through the minors. ...
I see a problem being the failure from the D+D. There are no impact bats in the minors. PCA, Davis, Alcantara were widely perceived as potential impact players, but this season has exposed them, none are going to become the best hitter on a contender. Some of the younger guys who were at one point perceived as "ceiling" possibilities, Hernandez, Preciado, Ballesteros, Made, none of those guys have much hitting.
After two drafts focused on pitching, there aren't any interesting new hitters coming along, either.
It's just kinda tough to build a team when your power prospects Davis and Alcantara are hitting .188 and .223, with OPS of .600 and .623.
Trying to buy a championship lineup with nothing but proven free agents is kinda tough.
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It’s a bit early to call PCA “exposed”. And if you’re looking for an impact ML bat, Caissie has certainly raised his stock.
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PCA was never going to be an impact bat, but he can still be a really good player.
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If Canario comes back healthy I think he could be an impact bat.
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Does anyone actually have a measurable definition of an impact bat?
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I would say someone who is constantly in there career above wRC+ 130l with seasons above 150.
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Good question, Dave. Happ consistently ranks high in many hitting areas, yet I tend to forget he's an "impact bat," probably because he doesn't flash.
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Well, if wRC+ is your drug of choice Happ is 115 career and only hit 130 in the COVID season.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/06/01/this-post-is-about-the-cubs-otherworldly-lack-of-clutch-hits-so-you-should-ignore-it-if-you-think-thatll-enrage-you/
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Knew it was bad, but worst in baseball by a whole lot?
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Jessie Rogers is reporting Steele is likely only going to miss 1 start.
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Wow! Good!
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Jessie Rogers is reporting Steele is likely only going to miss 1 start.
Yeah, but he didn't say what year.
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Cubs bWAR leaders.
Stroman 2.8 (#1 in majors among all pitchers!
Swanson 2.4 (tied for #9 in majors among all position players!
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Reportedly the Mets are acquiring Vinny Nittoli from the Cubs…no other details yet…
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We could probably find a use for Alonzo.
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Confirmation from another source of the earlier Rogers report.
Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
Source - Justin Steele likely to miss his next start.MRI showed ‘very minor issue’ with a tight forearm that forced him to leave his start Wednesday after three innings
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Color me skeptical that an abnormality seen on an MRI can be presumed to be minor.
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I wonder if the stress of pitching ever results in a totally “clear” MRI of a pitching arm.
Perhaps more details later today as to the MRI.
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As well as Tauchman has performed in his limited duty the past few weeks, I have wondered if perhaps Ross wouldn’t put him at 1B when Bellinger comes back, and send Mervis back to Iowa for regular AB’s.
I just looked, though, and Tauchman has never played an inning at 1B…only the outfield.
Anyone think Ross would put Bellinger at 1B while Tauchman is producing?
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I would. I don't think the Cubs are helping Mervis by keeping him in the majors right now. But if they think that he will develop better in the majors, make him the predominant DH until they trade Bellinger.
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For me, Mervis definitely should stay in majors with the caveat that Cubs keep an eye on his confidence level, demeanor, and the like.
If he start to look “defeated” in terms of how he carries himself then that’s different.
But, 71 PAs is way too few to consider returning him to a level where he’s already hit a ton. Doesn’t help him adjust to major league pitching playing at AAA unless he needs to gather himself personally.
Mervis could turn things around very quickly so long as he’s okay with his confidence level.
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Ditto what reb said.
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I agree with all of the above…and think all 3 LH bats work fine against RHP…with maybe Bellinger taking a few turns at DH if his knee needs a rest now and then.
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To keep his knee in less danger, it would make more sense to move Bellinger to first than Tauchman.
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To keep his knee in less danger, it would make more sense to move Bellinger to first than Tauchman.
I'm not convinced Tauchman will be hitting enough in a couple of weeks to seriously factor into that kind of decision.
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Tauchman has never played 1B…I don’t imagine his first time will be any time soon.
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With Bellinger——just leave him alone. He’s doing what you hoped for in the role he has played which, of course, includes his defensive position.
Generally a mistake to be moving around your better players in order to accommodate your lesser players. Put your better players where most likely to thrive and work in lesser players around that——not the opposite.
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Unless, of course, playing first would put less stress on his legs in terms of long runs. But with what were told about the knee bruise, the movement around the bag might be worse.
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/06/01/this-post-is-about-the-cubs-otherworldly-lack-of-clutch-hits-so-you-should-ignore-it-if-you-think-thatll-enrage-you/
Been thinking a lot about this and tonight Sutcliffe mentioned that the guys are trying to do too much. How do you correct this? They're choking because they fear choking. That's a mind f*ck.
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I like Sutcliffe on the broadcast (in small doses) but “trying to do too much” is sports’ biggest cliche about poor performance in big situations. Everybody uses it. The manager will say it. The players will say it. The broadcasters will say it. It’s the go-to excuse when nobody has a real explanation.
So, my take is better not-to-try reconstructing the psychology of the term or, to put it another way, don’t try to do too much.
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Guessing that most folks will be surprised by Mancini’s slash line playing 1B this season (thru Thursday).
As a 1B: (94 PAs) 329-409-488
Problem is:
As a DH: (59 PAs) 132-203-151
Go figure.
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But I agree with all that, but I think one can see that they're pressing. They're taking strikes down the middle and flailing at pitches out of the zone. That means they're guessing too much, not trusting their talent. It's frustrating. It's not Ross' fault or the hitting coaches. They're probably frustrated the most. Because everybody says it doesn't mean it isn't correct.
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Curt, what does “trying to do too much” actually mean?
For you, it includes taking strikes down the middle. That seems like being too passive rather than too much.
“Guessing” is part of hitting at the major league level. Intelligent guessing. Ted Williams talked about this in his great book on hitting. Maybe Cubs problem is Stupid guessing. Perhaps that’s the explanation.
Or, maybe it’s an anomaly. Maybe too much bad luck. Or maybe they stink and are very lucky in non-clutch situations.
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Morel is 1 for last 21 ABs
Mervis is 3 for last 28 ABs
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There used to be discussions of "clutch hitting". Similar for football QB's or kickers, and for basketball shooters. I think the general sense is that over extended period, nobody can outperform in clutch what they do in normal.
But I do think it's plausible to be anti-clutch, to underperform in clutch? Perhaps trying-to-do-too-much is a cliche because it has some foundation in athlete experience? Try to throw a little harder, and the stride gets a little longer and the fastball sails; try to throw a great slider and it breaks too much to tempt. Swing a little harder, chase a little wider. (9th inning Wednesday, Mastrobuoni chased a couple of high fastballs I'm not sure he normally chases?). Then some "be-patient" self-talk, and you take a fastball
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I believe the Cubs were last in "clutch" last season by a wide margin as well. I don't buy that it's entirely based on bad luck.
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Curt, what does “trying to do too much” actually mean?
For you, it includes taking strikes down the middle. That seems like being too passive rather than too much.
“Guessing” is part of hitting at the major league level. Intelligent guessing. Ted Williams talked about this in his great book on hitting. Maybe Cubs problem is Stupid guessing. Perhaps that’s the explanation.
Or, maybe it’s an anomaly. Maybe too much bad luck. Or maybe they stink and are very lucky in non-clutch situations.
Like Yogi said, "90% of this game is half mental" or something similar. With Yogi, close is good. When you take pitches right down the middle, you clearly were looking for (guessing) something else. Guessing early in the count can be beneficial. Guessing with two strikes is disaster waiting to happen. Not for Ted Williams, maybe, but for mere mortals... The players are all aware of their dismal hitting numbers in these situations. Look, guys, don't think about elephants and we'll be fine. Just remember, no elephants. Ease up. No stress. Damn elephant.
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Gussing is a large part of it, but not the only, or even most important part.
Ron Santo used to say that you always had to be ready for the fastball, and should adjust to everything else. Obviously, no one does that every time, but I would imagine that the more successful hitters do a lot less "guessing" when there are two strikes. if you are prepared for the fastball, you adjust to the breaking ball by picking up the rotation, and have a split second decision to make. It would seem reasonable to me that a confident batter would be better at making these split second decisions, while one mired in a slump might be a little slower in making them, thus reducing reaction time.
I agree that there is probably a ceiling to "clutchness", as was mentioned above. Other than random variations, their long term clutchness can probably not be better than their average roduction, while others probably will have a long term lack of "clutchness" well below their average.
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As has been noted, Cubs are WAY worse than the other 29 clubs in “clutchness.”
Seems peculiar that only the Cubs are “trying to do too much” whereas all the other clubs are dramatically (compared to Cubs) NOT trying to do too much.
I don’t get that.
Yes, Cubs were poor last season too in these situations but what could possibly explain why Cubs trying to do too much compared to 29 other clubs. WHY?
So, think it’s something else and probably an anomaly of sorts mixed with a skill factor that we can’t really identify. Unless you can explain what it is about Cubs that causes the “trying to do too much” syndrome that doesn’t seem to affect every other club in this way.
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I believe you when you say you don't get it. It's mental. It's a matter of confidence. It's like being told over and over again that you're a sh*tty fielder until you can't even pick up a dead ball.
What will happen to end it. One day the whole team is fed up and says we don't give a sh*t anymore. Maybe they'll be down 5 runs in the 9th and just start wailing the hell out of the ball.
Similar to the 100 year curse, broken in 2016. Dusty's team in 2003 should have ended it, but then came the Bartman inning, and you could see the team freeze. Yogi was right. Sorry you don't get it.
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Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
·
2m
The Cubs are placing Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list with a strained left forearm. In the corresponding roster move, catcher Miguel Amaya is being recalled from Triple-A Iowa.
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Interesting that, for now, Cubs going with a reduced 7-reliever bullpen (with Wesneski presumably taking Steele’s rotation spot) and keeping Rios on active roster.
Doubt that will last long.
Seems like Heuer ready soon to take that spot ( with a corresponding 40-man roster move).
Or, how about bringing up Ben Brown?
Or, bring up both?
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MLB had 10 pitchers in the minors on the cusp. Brown was one. Kiss of death.
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MLB had 10 pitchers in the minors on the cusp. Brown was one. Kiss of death.
Try not to be a dope.
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You okay, Jeff?
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Gordon Wittenmyer has an extremely uncharacteristic gushing piece on Kyle Hendricks. Good for him.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-kyle-hendricks-20230602-mgcqgjhc4vg2zj3v56nauuik6u-story.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Don%27t%20miss%3A%20News%20%2B%20Sports&utm_content=5721685808079&lctg=3413204
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We have a significant clue about Cubs “Trying To Do Too Much Syndrome.”
From BN:
“The Cubs are now 3-16 on the weekends this year. That means the Cubs are 22-16 on weekdays.”
So, Cubs are NOT trying to do too much on weekdays.
Cubs only trying to do too much on weekends.
Curt, what say ye about Cubs weekend behavior and psychology? And, what are Cubs doing right mentally on weekdays that neuters the Syndrome?
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Maybe we need bedchecks on these boys.
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Maybe we need bedchecks on these boys.
Yeah, that’s it!
So, turns out that Cubs are terrible at hitting in the clutch because trying to do too much caused by late night carousing on weekends.
Thanks Curt for solving this mystery!
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You're welcome.
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Ron, thanks much for the link to the Wittenmeyer article about Kyle Hendricks. I've closely followed the Cubs 65+ years and he's certainly one of the Cubs' top pitchers over the last 6+ decades! These excerpts were particularly fun to read:
(on Kyle's place among Cub pitchers) “He’s in the top 10 — oh, for sure,” said Fergie Jenkins, the greatest pitcher in franchise history...
“There’s just a lot that he’s done over his career here,” said Cubs broadcaster Ryan Dempster, a former All-Star pitcher and Game 1 playoff starter. “Big moments, complete games, shutouts, the Maddux game against the Cardinals that day. He’s just had all these really special moments. It wasn’t just one or two years.”
The day Hendricks debuted for the Cubs in 2014 in Cincinnati was the same day Anthony Rizzo challenged the entire population of the Reds dugout to a fight — perhaps the symbolic turning point in a Cubs’ tanking rebuild process that produced 97 wins the next season.
If Hendricks over the years has been overshadowed in moments or seasons by the likes of Arrieta, Lester or John Lackey, he has never been taken for granted by Ross, the manager said.
“Of course, he’s pitched big moments, but I think people should look at the body of work, at just how well he’s done for this franchise, in an era when everybody’s throwing 100 and he’s getting outs at a speed that everybody would question right now if you’re drafting guys,” Ross said.
“Man, has he done some amazing things here and been consistent with it. I trust that guy as much as anybody in my life when it comes to just how he’s going to compete, how he works, what his mentality is, how he’s going to stay in the moment and do what he does.”
Consider that from his debut through the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Hendricks had a career ERA of 3.12 — among the best in baseball over that stretch and better than such decorated, nine-figure-contract guys Justin Verlander (3.21), Gerrit Cole (3.19), Arrieta (3.21) and Lester (3.42).
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I think I have the perfect way to handle Wisdom this year. Bat him toward the bottom of the order so that there is no protection for him to blame for failing him. Then, when he does, like a blind squirrel with an acorn, hit a home run, reward him by sitting him for two or three games, giving him lots of rest from those wild swings. Then put him back in, but, again, only at the bottom of the order.
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This surprised me.
Yan Gomes career slash line vs. lefties: .282-331-493
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ESPN lists Merryweather as our best trade chip this summer. Sad.
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I think that’s Stroman. And Bellinger could factor into it if he’s healthy and producing decently.
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Comments by Hoerner
"In other words, Hoerner is conceding that a VERY HUMAN THING happens when a team starts to fall off like this: you try to do more than you really can. You try to control all the losing by yourself. You get outside the things that make you the best and most effective version of yourself in the first place. It’s just what happens when a team starts to struggle, and it’s up to the manager, the coaches, and the veterans to keep it from spiraling."
What the heck is wrong with Hoerner. Doesn't he even READ Reb's posts?
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Those aren't comments by Hoerner. Those are comments by BN spinning comments by Hoerner.
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At what point is Ross in trouble?
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What the heck is wrong with Hoerner. Doesn't he even READ Reb's posts?
Those aren't comments by Hoerner. Those are comments by BN spinning comments by Hoerner.
Not only that, but Dave has difficulty understanding my comments on the subject too. Let’s blame it on the bad air quality going around that is scrambling reading comprehension.
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He probably already is. He was given a horse-**** roster, but he hasn't made the best out of it. But more clearly, Hoyer may feel that the only way to keep from himself getting canned is firing Ross as a deflection.
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Way too early for Ross to be on the hot seat.
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Way too early for Ross to be on the hot seat.
Not so for Hoyer.
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BN has a good piece up about Madrigal.
With Wisdom now batting .197 with the usual prodigious Ks and Madrigal raking at Iowa (in about 50 PAs), gotta wonder if Cubs maybe thinking about switching out Wisdom for Madrigal as the 3B regular?
Granted, Wisdom has the 2nd highest slugging % (behind Bellinger) of guys with at least 100 PAs on the club, but the Ks and non-competitive ABs are maddening. And, maybe Madrigal 3B defense will be superior compared to Wisdom going forward.
Not sure what role Wisdom would have off the bench, if any, and he has a minor league option remaining. Or, maybe Wisdom goes on one of his hot streaks starting tonight and we go back to square one.
Think if bring up Madrigal as 3B regular, should put him top of the order with Hoerner and move everybody else down a spot.
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Madrigal should hit 9th.
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Wisdom has been abused and should either be put in the heart of the lineup or DFA'd. Early in the year when he was hitting, the Cubs were winning. Now that he hits lower in the lineup WHEN HE PLAYS and sits a lot between games, his confidence and stroke are way off. I think the damage has been done. The same with Morel. And why is Rios still on this team? His role now is to be announced and then pulled for a righthanded batter.
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Madrigal should hit 9th.
That would be the alternative, yes, particularly as some teams use the #9 spot as kind if a “second leadoff man” as the lineup turns over after first inning.
But, suggesting top of order (if Madrigal displaces Wisdom) because peak Madrigal is a leadoff type if he hits .300+ Mostly hit #9 with WSox too but Sox had Tim Anderson at leadoff.
The bad Madrigal is bottom of the order. If comes up after being super-hot at Iowa, maybe would keep the fire lit for him in his natural spot (when he’s good). Putting him at #9 from the get-go is just returning to the status quo when he was bad and got to play sparingly.
In any case, where he hits in lineup is debatable. Certainly reasonable to put him at #9. Will be curious if/when Cubs swap out Madrigal/Wisdom in first instance.
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Mastrobuoni optioned to Iowa. Madrigal recalled.
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Oh, good, now Rios can watch someone else play. Or did I miss his being sent down?
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From twitter: Ian Happ hasn't homered since May 5 (130 PAs) and his .057 ISO over that stretch ranks 149th out of 153 players (100 PA min).
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And yet he bats 3rd or 4th.
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He probably already is. He was given a horse-**** roster, but he hasn't made the best out of it. But more clearly, Hoyer may feel that the only way to keep from himself getting canned is firing Ross as a deflection.
Hoyer and Ross both need to go, IMO. It would be nice if someone other than Hoyer was in charge of this year's sell-off.
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He probably already is. He was given a horse-**** roster, but he hasn't made the best out of it. But more clearly, Hoyer may feel that the only way to keep from himself getting canned is firing Ross as a deflection.
I'm not so sure. The whole Ricketts-Hoyer thing is taking on a very Reinsdorf-Paxson aroma.
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How well positioned are the Cubs to be a very good team next year? I don't think the answer to that is clear yet. I'm willing to give Hoyer and Ross the benefit of the doubt for now.
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Interesting tweet from Stro..
Marcus Stroman
@STR0
·
3m
Replying to
@ChiefCub
My agent and I made multiple attempts to engage them on an extension. Club wasn’t interested in exploring it now. Will see how it plays out! Love everything about the
@Cubs
organization!
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Seems like it only makes it that much harder to be successful next season if they lose Stroman.
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Interesting tweet from Stro..
Marcus Stroman
@STR0
·
3m
Replying to
@ChiefCub
My agent and I made multiple attempts to engage them on an extension. Club wasn’t interested in exploring it now. Will see how it plays out! Love everything about the
@Cubs
organization!
Welcome back, Jimmer!
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I don't see any realistic path forward to being a good team next year. They're a bad team now, and they'll lose their best starter. They're losing Bellinger (who is third among Cubs position players in fWAR despite playing less often than 7 players). The front office and ownership have shown no real desire to go out and pay what it takes to get a real star, so Ohtani is realistically off the table. The farm system hasn't taken the step forward that it needs to take (it's still good but not elite, just like it was three months ago), so there is unlikely to be star hitters debuting any time soon.
IMO, we can expect a third straight offseason of retooling with a couple good players and a lot of LIAB guys if this front office is still in place. And it'll be just as effective as the last two offseasons.
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That's a reasonable position, br, but I don't share it. What I see is a team that ought to be at about .500 now were it not for some weird quirks. They have a philosophy of run prevention with solid pitching and defense (which I like a lot). Poor relief pitching has been the major reason they haven't had more success with that approach, and we all know how unpredictable relievers can be.
That said, this won't be a good team without the offense improving. I don't think it needs to improve drastically but a big time bat in the middle of the lineup would make a huge difference. Perhaps that's doable in the offseason. Figuring out 3B and 1B will also be key, but that might not require an acquisition. Getting regular starts for Amaya will also help. Finally, guys like Morel and Mervis will need to make the necessary adjustments and contribute.
I tend to be the optimistic sort when it comes to the Cubs and over the years that hasn't really been the play. Nonetheless, I see a lot of potential with the philosophy and with a good portion of the roster. I don't expect them to contend for a title next season, but I will be disappointed if they aren't good.
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If it was a choice between Ross and Hoyer, I shudder to think who Hoyer might hire to replace Ross. Careful for what we wish for.
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Here’s a hint…he’s in the booth sometimes, and he just turned down a college job…
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Oh, and he hates playing kids…
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Exactly who I was thinking of.
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Is there any reason whatsoever that anyone thinks Hoyer would hire Joe Girardi?
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Unless some minor leaguers make some massive jumps this team isn’t going to be better much better next year.
Hoyer was quoted as saying he didn’t have enough money to finish off the bullpen. When you build a team with little margin for error and one part of the team fails you get this. It won’t be different next year, the results might be better, but it will still be a flawed team.
The Cubs have to be considered well behind the Reds and Pirates for the future of this division and that is just sad.
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Is there any reason whatsoever that anyone thinks Hoyer would hire Joe Girardi?
His availability?
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….Hoyer was quoted as saying he didn’t have enough money to finish off the bullpen…
Didn’t see that. Do you have a link?
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One reason for optimism is what Christopher Morel has done in his 464 MLB ABs - the stuff of a top prospect who has fulfilled the promise (so far).
Morel's career stats are rather eye popping, particularly for a guy who wasn't a top MLB prospect:
464 ABs, 26 HR, 22 2b, 4 3b (50 total XBHs), .239 BA, .311 OBP, .472 SLG, .763 OPS, 74 runs, 65 RBI - compare his career stats to another's so far:
577 ABs, 20 HR, 33 2b, 3 3b (56 total XBHs), .267 BA, .346 OBP, .438 SLG, .784 OPS, 75 runs, 65 RBI.
Morel is FIVE years younger than Seiya Suzuki and Morel has WAY, WAY less professional experience.
Morel has K'd about 36% of his career ABs, whereas Suzuki is more around 25%...one would think Morel's Ks would diminish with more ABs.
Suzuki has done a solid job for the Cubs, but his place in the middle of the order is clear, whereas Morel hits (and plays) all over.
Morel is the ONLY player in MLB history to have hit HRs in 5 straight games while hitting in 5 different spots in the order.
Cubs may have someone really special in Morel...maybe because he wasn't hyped coming up, it's not really evident the Cubs realize that.
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Sharma has mentioned it on their podcast multiple times.
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Then maybe Sharma oughtta replace Hoyer (or Ross).
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Sharma has mentioned it on their podcast multiple times.
So, it’s Sharma’s interpretation of Hoyer’s failure to sign another reliever(s).
That’s not “Hoyer was quoted as saying.”
Didn’t seem like Hoyer’s modus operandi to say something like that publicly.
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We are not alone...
In this week’s version of “Why the Cardinals are struggling,” the culprit is the team’s lack of timely hitting. While losing two of three to the rapidly improving Reds over the weekend, St. Louis went just 2-for-22 with runners in scoring position, stranding 25 runners in the series.
Spotty starting pitching, a struggling relief corps and uncharacteristically poor defense have been at the root of the Cardinals’ troubles at various times this season, but timely hitting has eluded the team in recent weeks. A major issue of late: an overreliance on home runs and an inability to manufacture runs with productive at-bats.
In the season, the Cards rank a middling seventh in the NL in hitting with runners in scoring position, eighth in RISP RBIs and 10th in batting average with RISP and two outs.
“If we’re going to get out of this and start playing good baseball,” manager Oli Marmol said, “we’re going to have to start driving in some runs in those situations, bottom line.”
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Maybe Willson brought the risp virus with him
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In 78 PAs, Tucker Barnhart has scored ONE run.
Slugging .176.
When he starts, kind of like having the pitcher hitting again—at least so far this season.
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Did you know that Cubs 1B this season have a higher OPS (.699) than Cubs 2B (.694)?
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... or that Zach McKinstry's wRC+ is 109 (11th of 24 qualifying second basemen) while Nico's is 95 (21st of 24).
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Bellinger back, Mervis to Iowa.
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... or that Zach McKinstry's wRC+ is 109 (11th of 24 qualifying second basemen) while Nico's is 95 (21st of 24).
Looks like Tigers have moved McKinstry off of 2B——now playing RF/LF.
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Looks like Tigers have moved McKinstry off of 2B——now playing RF/LF.
Correct although they might not phrase it that way.
https://motorcitybengals.com/posts/detroit-tigers-zach-mckinstry-worthy-addition
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McKinstry’s last start at 3B was May 28.
His last 14 game starts have been in RF.
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Jon Greenberg's (The Athletic) description of the Cubs recent results:
"They dropped four in a row to end a three-series West Coast trip but have won five of six at home going into a weekend series with the Orioles."
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Merryweather after 1st appearance: 28.2 IP, 6 ER, 23 H, 10 BB, 42 K, 1.88 ERA.
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Steele coming back tomorrow.
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Taillon's results have obviously been garbage this year.
But, when you go up and down this list, worth noting that the 2022-23 FA SP class as a whole has gotten off to a *really* bad start:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2023/starting-pitcher/
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Senga has been pretty good.
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I suppose that if Cubs are in a position to add at trade deadline, focus would be on a lefty reliever.
Royals have Chapman to dangle.
Rockies have Brad Hand and A’s have Sam Moll. Neither has given up a homer this season, so FIPs one run better than ERA.
Zero homers allowed by Chapman too. 48 Ks in 26 IP.
All have control issues.
Back end of Cubs bullpen has settled down for now, with four guys throwing well. If Boxberger can come back strong, that would be five, perhaps. Add a good lefty for six. If you’re optimistic, who knows.
Interesting that Cubs currently with two long men/swing starters are up now in 8-man bullpen, Assad and Wesneski. Presumably, Wesneski back to Iowa before too long.
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Suzuki slash line in June:
184-247-237
I wonder if—against righties—we might be seeing Morel getting some starts in RF, with Young at DH and Suzuki sitting.
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Fangraphs:
Cubs current playoff odds: 21.9 percent
(Twice as good as Cubs pre-season playoff odds).
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I will be happy if this bunch can just win 81 games. Anything above that is a bonus.
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Cubs are a remarkably average offensive team at a game short of the halfway point of the season.
Cubs wRC+ is 100. Average.
Cubs OPS is .730. MLB average is .729.
Cubs BA is .249. MLB average is .248.
Cubs Runs p/g is 4.61. MLB average is 4.56.
A team so average offensively would be expected to run hot and cold scoring runs, as Cubs seem to do. Maybe in other endeavors, you’d expect average to be sort of average all or most of the time. But, baseball is erratic and random by its nature and this is what you get.
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…….But, if put on optimist cap: if Suzuki got really hot for rest of the way; Madrigal hits .300+ rest of the way; Bellinger hits rest of the way as he did pre-injury; Morel puts up big-time slugging at DH rest of the way; and SOMEBODY at 1B (Young?) hits well rest of the way—this could be a good offense, even a very good offense. Yeah, lots of IFs and maybe pie in the sky but this is baseball and baseball is so often unpredictable.
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Rosenthal and Mooney:
CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs are not inclined to sign Marcus Stroman to a contract extension before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, sources told The Athletic, preferring to keep their options open and see how the team performs over the next month.
How the team finishes this season will impact the 2024 budget handed to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins, who have signaled a willingness to wait until the last minute before making any major buy-or-sell decisions…..
“Nothing new,” Stroman said Friday when asked if there had been any movement in his discussions with the front office. “I have a great relationship with Jed and Carter. It’s been awesome here. I just don’t think they’re in a position right now for me to extend my (time here). Which, I don’t even care. I feel good here. I would love for them to be in play in the offseason. I would love to have an opportunity to sign back here in free agency after the year is done.
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Shaking my head. What's with these guys? Bring in a piece that can be a building block for the franchise, then let him walk so they have to go find another piece. Like Jeff used to say: worst sports organization in the world. Or something like that.
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Shaking my head. What's with these guys? Bring in a piece that can be a building block for the franchise, then let him walk so they have to go find another piece. Like Jeff used to say: worst sports organization in the world. Or something like that.
I read it more as "we want to have the freedom to have a fire sale, and we're not going to flip a guy we just extended".
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If Cubs don’t have a post-season shot a month from now, makes all the sense in the world to trade Stroman. He figures to be the top SP on the market and will bring back a nice return.
And he is not eligible for a QO, so no FA comp pick.
Would love to have him back as a FA and Stroman seems very open to that. Either way, sign him now or sign him later, have to show him the money. We’ll see. It’s a two-way street.
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I read it more as "we want to have the freedom to have a fire sale, and we're not going to flip a guy we just extended".
If Cubs don’t have a post-season shot a month from now, makes all the sense in the world to trade Stroman. He figures to be the top SP on the market and will bring back a nice return.
And he is not eligible for a QO, so no FA comp pick.
Would love to have him back as a FA and Stroman seems very open to that. Either way, sign him now or sign him later, have to show him the money. We’ll see. It’s a two-way street.
Where we differ is you must have the faith that this pair of idiots can get a nice return. I do not.
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Where we differ is you must have the faith that this pair of idiots can get a nice return. I do not.
Well, Pipeline says 3 of the Cubs current top 4 prospects were acquired last two trade deadlines, plus Canario at #10 who might be higher by now absent injury. Think maybe you have a minority view on this.
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Of course, if you asked me would I have preferred to extend Stroman before the season on non-crazy terms—compared to trading him for a nice return at the deadline—I would say Yes, extend.
Did that with Happ as he approached free agency but maybe Cubs more wary with a pitcher or who knows what else factored.
Ideally, you’d get a nice trade return AND then re-sign him in off-season….but see that only occasionally.
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Where we differ is you must have the faith that this pair of idiots can get a nice return. I do not.
PCA, Ben Brown, Alcantara, Canario, Caissie, and more say hi
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Hi back to these suspects. I am not confident that they will rise to the level of those that they were traded for.
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Better than Taillon, for sure (though the BB rate especially is concerning). Same can be said of others, too. In general, however, the class is performing very poorly.
PCA, Ben Brown, Alcantara, Canario, Caissie, and more say hi
Trading Darvish effectively straight up for Caissie is not solid evidence in favor of front office shrewdness.
Those are all good prospects on paper. None of them have suited up for a major league game yet. Considering all we gave up to get them, you'd expect a pretty decent haul of prospects in return.
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Shaking my head. What's with these guys? Bring in a piece that can be a building block for the franchise, then let him walk so they have to go find another piece. Like Jeff used to say: worst sports organization in the world. Or something like that.
Just curious who it is you have in mind (piece that can be a building block then let him walk)? Guessing you mean Stroman. But if so, who else?
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I'm quite pleased with what Hoyer has accomplished so far. He has started to effectively implement a philosophy that I strongly agree with. The results so far have been about as good as could have been expected. The real test will be how the roster looks in 2024.
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I have reconsidered my position. Based on the fact that these are gentlemen who brought in such outstanding talent as Hosmer, Taillon, Boxberger, Fullmer, Mancini, Barnhardt, Mastrobouni, and Rios, I admit I was wrong. They're freaking genii.
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I have reconsidered my position. Based on the fact that these are gentlemen who brought in such outstanding talent as Hosmer, Taillon, Boxberger, Fullmer, Mancini, Barnhardt, Mastrobouni, and Rios, I admit I was wrong. They're freaking genii.
You may have left out a few guys.
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Swanson, Stroman, Steele named (deservedly) to the all-star team. Hoerner and Alzolay reportedly rejected for not having names starting with “S”. Smyly demands a recount.
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Shoerner hould be pizzed.
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Here's a stat:
The Cubs are 2-12 when Jameson Taillon starts and 36-32 when he doesn't.
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At what point are the Cubs buyers or sellers record wise?
It they are buyers I would imagine it is much 2015 vs trading for actually good players. For the future I think they are better selling, but I don't think the financial side would like that.
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Miller to the IL, Ohtani to SP, picking up JP Crawford
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Wonder what the Cubs' 3b development plan is for Christopher Morel, if there is one (since we're committed to LF and RF for multiple seasons and PCA will take CF when Bellinger departs).
Seems like we should have a Spanish-speaking 3b defensive expert working with him regularly on drills and fundamentals repetition. Do we?
Obviously, Morel is super fast twitch with a cannon and seems motivated to improve, though becoming MLB average at 3b may be a tall order.
The kid has special talent and it seems critical that Cubs work overtime to develop him as a core piece.
I'd hope one organizational goal would be for Morel to become the regular at 3b in 2024.
Cubs just don't have many other middle-of-the-order potential bats at any level at this point in time. Morel feels like a key to the future to me.
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I should have said PCA will take CF at some future point (perhaps well after Bellinger departs), so the future fit for Morel on D is 3b.
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Report that Daniel Palencia, 6.8 ERA in minors this year and 7.9 since promotion to Iowa, has gotten called up.
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Today's performance by Palencia, who struggled mightily in AAA (and previously), helps prove that baseball is a rather unpredictable game!
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Today's performance by Palencia, who struggled mightily in AAA (and previously), helps prove that baseball is a rather unpredictable game!
Palencia seems to have been totally boom or bust - dominating or awful depending on the day. Maybe a function of his not having been in the bullpen that long.
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Strange stat. The Cubs have had 15 games in which they have scored either 5 or 6 runs. Their record in those games is 5-10.
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Bellinger looks legit at this point, but he's a very hard player to price. He's been horrible, average, pretty good and MVP all in the last few years. I think you either have to extend him or trade him - what would it cost to do the former? I have no idea. 4 years, $80-90 million, maybe?
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Bellinger looks legit at this point, but he's a very hard player to price. He's been horrible, average, pretty good and MVP all in the last few years. I think you either have to extend him or trade him - what would it cost to do the former? I have no idea. 4 years, $80-90 million, maybe?
I'd sign him to that deal immediately. I imagine it's more like the Swanson contract.
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I'd sign him to that deal immediately. I imagine it's more like the Swanson contract.
Yeah, that would be a hard pass for me. Especially since our best prospect is a CF.
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One is a former MVP returning to form. The other is still a suspect. One is also an all star first baseman. I don't believe Hoyer is smart enough to make an offer, so this is moot.
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Bellinger looks like a good player. Good players are hard to find. If you can keep him, I would try. Having PCA as a good defensive-specialist prospect shouldn't preclude keeping Bellinger. Have them both.
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Both Bellinger and PCA are likely to crash into a wall or otherwise sacrifice their bodies as part of their elite CF defense. Having both is not really a luxury, and much better than spending a significant part of the year struggling with 4th outfielders or worse in CF. If they're both healthy, you won't see Mancini-level fielding at 1B, or you could put both in the OF and a bat first statue as your third OF. Bellinger's situation screams for an incentive-laden deal which could be a monster contract if he produces but gives a base which reflects his inconsistency.
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……Bellinger's situation screams for an incentive-laden deal which could be a monster contract if he produces but gives a base which reflects his inconsistency.
CBA does not permit “qualitative” incentives such as homers, OPS, and the like. Can get a bonus for MVP or something like that but contract incentives generally are games played or PAs for a guy with injury history and that kind of thing.
Happ and Suzuki now each under .400 slugging for the season and guessing that hitting for power might be last thing to come in majors for PCA. So, yes, would be kinda nice to have Bellinger bat for 2024 and beyond, particularly as 1B option if Mervis doesn’t pan out upon his eventual return for Part 2. Pitchers seem to be exploiting Jared Young’s hitting holes lately; he’s under Mendoza line now.
Getting kind of lame seeing these mostly blah 1B projects trying to hit in majors ever since Rizzo departed. Maybe Mervis ends that. Will see I guess.
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I don’t think the Cubs buy the hype with Mervis and I don’t think they ever really did. He’ll get at least one more shot this season, and maybe it’ll click on for him. But his presence is certainly not going to block anybody.
I certainly don’t think having both Bellinger and PCA would be a bad thing, especially given Bellinger’s ability to play 1B so well. The issue is - as ever - cost. If you believe he can provide a legit lefty power bat you give it a shot. But if Jeff is right about it taking a Swanson-type deal, I don’t see the draw given just how much of a risk Bellinger still has to be viewed as.
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Nah, Bellinger is very unlikely to get a $177M deal, like Swanson. Bellinger was non-tendered. Would take a monster season this year to get a deal in that neighborhood a year after a non-tender.
If Bellinger has a 4 WAR season, guessing he might approach 5/100. Has some work to do to reach 4 WAR. That’s a pretty nice deal if he can get it. If he does a lot better than 4 WAR, then all bets are off, some club might go all in on him. For Cubs to be a player for him, deal probably has to be more like the former. Could see that.
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TRADE HIM
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Swanson to DL, Mastrobuoni back up and at 3B today
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BR Cubs defenders value (dWAR) at the Break.
Best:
Swanson 1.4
Hoerner 0.9
Madrigal 0.6
Gomes 0.6
Mastrobuoni 0.2
Worst:
Mancini -1.0
Wisdom -0.7
Morel -0.4
Suzuki -0.3
J.Young -0.3
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I wonder if Girardi will have any interest in the Northwestern job?
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He impresses me more as an analyst.
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Is any potential return for Bellinger at the trade deadline really going to trump the idea of keeping him around for the next several years?
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No. If they can sign him before the trade deadline, that would be outstanding. But if they can't, they would be foolish to keep him for the rest of a lost season.
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I don't see the need to rush PCA up to the bigs. But he should certainly be ready by the 2025 season. If you sign Bellinger to an extension (which would presumably need to be 4 years at a minimum), how do you deal with PCA in 2025 and beyond? It's doubtful that Bellinger would agree to become a regular first baseman (nor should he, given his defensive abilities). One can take the position that he should be extended and the PCA "problem" dealt with later.
There is still a considerable risk that bad Bellinger could re-emerge down the road. The flip side is that the Cubs lack power (particularly from the left side) and Bellinger could fill that important area of need. Lacking a crystal ball, I don't know what the right move is.
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……..It's doubtful that Bellinger would agree to become a regular first baseman (nor should he, given his defensive abilities). One can take the position that he should be extended and the PCA "problem" dealt with later. There is still a considerable risk that bad Bellinger could re-emerge down the road. The flip side is that the Cubs lack power (particularly from the left side) and Bellinger could fill that important area of need. Lacking a crystal ball, I don't know what the right move is.
Bellinger’s MVP season in 2019, he played mostly RF, not CF.
Actually played more 1B than CF in 2019.
And, was mostly a 1B in 2017 and 2018.
As Bellinger hits free agency, one would think that a club needing a CFer would outbid a club needing him as a 1B—given the added value of good CF defense compared to value of good 1B defense. True enough.
But, guessing that Bellinger cares a lot more about the money than what position he’s going to play mostly, CF or 1B. Show him the most money and a good situation and he’ll sign regardless of his primary position, I would think.
And Cubs might be a club doing that given two years in a row of putrid club production at 1B and apparent absence of a terrific 1B prospect going forward——with the caveat of assuming Mervis isn’t terrific if comes back up in a couple weeks and takes over 1B for the long run.
So, could see Cubs showing Bellinger the money to play 1B. Looks like he’s going to exceed 4 WAR this season if stays healthy.
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I don't see the need to rush PCA up to the bigs. But he should certainly be ready by the 2025 season. If you sign Bellinger to an extension (which would presumably need to be 4 years at a minimum), how do you deal with PCA in 2025 and beyond? It's doubtful that Bellinger would agree to become a regular first baseman (nor should he, given his defensive abilities). One can take the position that he should be extended and the PCA "problem" dealt with later.
There is still a considerable risk that bad Bellinger could re-emerge down the road. The flip side is that the Cubs lack power (particularly from the left side) and Bellinger could fill that important area of need. Lacking a crystal ball, I don't know what the right move is.
Bellinger is going to be 29 next year, he’s going to want the longest term deal he can get. It is probably going to be a lot larger deal than what Swanson got. I really doubt the Cubs are going to pay that in the next month (they should). Once Bellinger gets his deal I very much doubt he’s going to care where he plays and will probably want to do what is best for team. The Cubs need power bats and especially lefty power bats.
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Bellinger is going to be 29 next year, he’s going to want the longest term deal he can get. It is probably going to be a lot larger deal than what Swanson got. I really doubt the Cubs are going to pay that in the next month (they should). Once Bellinger gets his deal I very much doubt he’s going to care where he plays and will probably want to do what is best for team. The Cubs need power bats and especially lefty power bats.
You think Bellinger is going to sign an 8-plus year deal? I'd take you up on that if you wanted to bet on it.
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I don't see the need to rush PCA up to the bigs. But he should certainly be ready by the 2025 season. If you sign Bellinger to an extension (which would presumably need to be 4 years at a minimum), how do you deal with PCA in 2025 and beyond? It's doubtful that Bellinger would agree to become a regular first baseman (nor should he, given his defensive abilities). One can take the position that he should be extended and the PCA "problem" dealt with later. ....
The latter.
1. Both PCA and Bellinger can play LF or RF, plus Bellinger 1B.
2. DH AB.
3. In 2025, Happ and Suzuki will each be in their 2nd-last contract years; will both be good enough to still command everyday starting roles?
4. Trades can happen. Not sure what Happ and Suzuki have for no-trade, but *IF* hypothetically both seem starter-worthy, you could trade one? Or could trade PCA for a comparably promising 3B?
5. Injuries can happen.
6. Good-fielding prospects can struggle to hit. We don't know how much offense PCA will contribute, and whether or not he'll be so good that you need to give him 500 AB.
7. Tauchman. 175 PA since getting called up May 23. If PCA functions as 4th outfielder, might not a 4th outfielder still rack up a lot of AB and be plenty useful? Might it perhaps be a better framework to think about PCA replacing Tauchman rather than replacing Bellinger?
8. Rookies. Not every rookie excels right away. PCA might be well served to roll as a 4th outfielder, getting less than 600 PA.
9. Then it will be 2026, with both Happ and Suzuki on expiring contract.
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You think Bellinger is going to sign an 8-plus year deal? I'd take you up on that if you wanted to bet on it.
More than $177 million.
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More than $177 million.
Well, that’s more realistic than 8-10 years, but I’m not sure he’s going to get that much unless his second half is really off the charts. If he still going to be an asset defensively in CF in 4 years? 6? And if not, you’re betting an awful lot on the consistency of the bat that’s been anything but consistent.
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What do you think he would take for the Cubs to sign him now?
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There was a time when I thought the idea of trying to re-sign Bellinger was not a serious one. But given the Cubs' compelling need for a power bat in the lineup (particularly a LH one) and the way Bellinger has performed (as well as his supposed interest in remaining a Cub), I've gotten very intrigued by that idea. I am skeptical that Hoyer would do what it would take to keep Bellinger(or reacquire him as a free agent). But I'm now in the camp of hoping that would happen. Ross has been extremely enthusiastic about Bellinger as a key component of the team (on the field and off of it) and Stromen claims that Bellinger would like to remain with the Cubs (who knows how real that is?). I'm not particularly down on Hoyer as some here are, but I do wish he had more of something like a river boat gambler approach sometimes.
I'm not as cold blooded as Hoyer about these things, but I would be very happy if a way can be found to keep both Stromen and Bellinger, and pretty disappointed if both are gone before 2024.
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The Cubs should extend Stroman and trade Bellinger.
Whatever team gives Bellinger a big contract this offseason will regret it by this time next year.
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Pretty much an echo of what a number of you were saying last winter.
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What do you think he would take for the Cubs to sign him now?
I think Bellinger’s weird history makes him very hard to value.
It would be odd for him to pre-empt his own FA at this point. I guess something like 6/150 but who knows.
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Belli’s season-to-date doesn’t justify a +$177M deal. He’d need a near-perfect second half to command that kind of contract, IMO.
If Belli and Hoyer have similar opinions on what a fair extension looks like, I’d love to see it happen.
But I doubt it it gets done before the deadline, which makes it difficult not to trade him. Belli’s going to want to bet on staying healthy and productive. Meanwhile, Cubs might be reluctant to pay free-agent-market-value having just witnessed the knee injury.
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On the other hand, this front office seems quite willing to evaluate a player at their best, including when injury is involved.
Take Horton or the guy we just drafted 2nd. Two pitchers with short track records of elite performance. Perhaps Hoyer uses a similar rubric at major league level, and over-weights recent-peak-performance if the trend results from discernible, controllable, repeatable behavior?
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Only eight games ago, Bellinger’s OPS was .786.
After Saturday’s game, it’s now .893. Gain of 107 points in eight games.
Naturally, with this hot streak, Bellinger is getting the Recentism “he sure is great” treatment. Maybe better to evaluate again when he cools down?
Or, maybe he won't cool down and will enter free agency in high demand. Who knows.
Maybe Bellinger is looking at a Brandon Nimmo type deal that Steve Cohen gave Nimmo last December. 8/$162. I don’t know if that was a Steve Cohen market price for Nimmo or a MLB market price for Nimmo.
But, I wonder if Bellinger can really get that or whether clubs will be wary of the really bad seasons that preceded 2023, whereas Nimmo was pretty consistent in the run-up to his free agency——albeit Bellinger will be about 1 1/2 years younger this offseason than when Nimmo hit free agency last off-season. Think that Bellinger will have to be excellent rest of the way to get that kind of deal.
Kind of skeptical that he gets that, but things change with Bellinger a lot, it seems.
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Nimmo is 30 and has 20.6 fWAR. Swanson is 29 with 19.1 fWAR. Bellinger is 28 with 19.9 fWAR even with his 2 horrible years.
Here is the list of left handed power bats in the system
Owen Cassie
Give him the money.
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PJ Higgins is back:
Patrick Mooney @PJ_Mooney
The Cubs have acquired catcher P.J. Higgins from the Diamondbacks for a cash consideration. Higgins, who was drafted by the Cubs in 2015, played 83 games for the major-league club across the last two seasons.
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Cubs can say they are buyers at the deadline
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That's an odd move to me.
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Not if you’re thinking about trading Gomes or dropping Toby.
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Yes, they could be trading someone, but they already have 3 catchers on the major roster. Trading one takes you back to normal.
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Nimmo is 30 and has 20.6 fWAR. Swanson is 29 with 19.1 fWAR. Bellinger is 28 with 19.9 fWAR even with his 2 horrible years.
Here is the list of left handed power bats in the system
Owen Cassie
Give him the money.
Bellinger had 2.2 fWAR combined in 2022, 2021, 2020. Not so hot.
And almost 40% of his career fWAR was in his 2019 MVP season.
Clubs don’t pay a guy for what he did five years before the new contract kicks in. They pay for future perceived performance.
So, how Bellinger performs remainder of this season is really crucial to what his market value may be—even more than most guys in their pending free agent walk year.
Let’s see how he performs. The current moment when he’s blazing hot is not the best time to evaluate.
In any case, I think the poor performance of recent years is going to impact, to some extent, his next contract even if he performs well remainder of this season——perhaps in contract length. Skeptical he can get the 8 years that Nimmo got, notwithstanding Bellinger’s age.
Think there’s definitely a case for Cubs showing Bellinger the money but a lot of variables going forward about what that might look like or whether it’s the way to go with Bellinger primarily as a 1B. Jury is out on this, seems to me.
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That's an odd move to me.
Makes perfect sense.
Not on the 40-man. Cubs like Higgins better than the current AAA catchers. Has versatility at non-catcher spots. Just a cash deal.
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I think this is the ideal time to overpay to get Candelario (if his injury isn't serious). Give the team a positive jolt, show confidence in them, and perhaps have the inside track to keep Candelario beyond this season.
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My guess is that Hoyer will neither extend nor trade Bellinger within the next two weeks. He will be willing to face the market after the season.
I see no reason why Boras would sign an extension now unless it's ludicrously favorable. Fair-market won't get it done. Why settle for fair-market now, when you can get fair-market in December, but might get something fabulous?
Maybe Bellinger's 2nd half will blow his market up, and the market price will blow Hoyer away. Or maybe one owner will go crazy overpay and blow Hoyer away.
But I expect that Hoyer hopes to explore a fair-market offer this December, at a more Cubs-friendly fair-market price than what Boras would require now.
I know you could hypothetically trade for talent now, and still re-sign him in December. But I don't expect Hoyer to pursue that.
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My guess is that Hoyer will neither extend nor trade Bellinger within the next two weeks. He will be willing to face the market after the season.
Not trading Bellinger (assuming we don't extend him, which we won't) should be a fireable offense. It would be gross incompetence.
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Only the Cubs trade their best prospects for players who then re-sign with their original club.
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Bellinger gets the Cubs a draft pick if/when he is offered a QO.
So, as with Contreras a year ago, Hoyer has to balance value of that pick with value of what is offered in a trade.
Don’t just assume Bellinger keeps up the hot streak. Maybe he’s just okay next couple of weeks, or even poor or not healthy.
Would think he’ll be fine and top OFer in trade market and would get a nice return, but it’s not a sure thing.
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Bellinger even with a mid 700s OPS is an extremely valuable trade chip. Can play very good defense anywhere in the OF or 1B, left-handed power, steals bases. Even before this hot streak he was among the more desirable position players on the market (especially with so few teams overtly tanking). Not trading him would be flat-out crazy.
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Bellinger gets the Cubs a draft pick if/when he is offered a QO. So, as with Contreras a year ago, Hoyer has to balance value of that pick with value of what is offered in a trade. ...
reb, you know this, but I sometimes need to remind myself that a comp pick is in front of round 3. The Contreras pick was pick #68, so it's kinda more like a 3rd round pick. Valuable, for sure. But it's not like the old days when a comp pick came after round 1.
No way a comp pick comes close to the value you could get in a trade. It would be a 3rd-choice consolation prize, assuming you failed in your first two choices of getting into the playoffs, and/or extending Bellinger.
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Bellinger even with a mid 700s OPS is an extremely valuable trade chip. Can play very good defense anywhere in the OF or 1B, left-handed power, steals bases. Even before this hot streak he was among the more desirable position players on the market (especially with so few teams overtly tanking). Not trading him would be flat-out crazy.
Contreras had a .818 OPS trade deadline day. Everyone assumed he’d get back a nice trade piece. Didn’t happen.
Cubs comp pick for Contreras was #68 and drafted a high ceiling guy who Kantrovitz obviously loves if you listen to that Marquee interview. Seems plausible Wiggins is a better piece than whatever was offered for Contreras.
Bellinger is a different guy but foolish to say “crazy” or “gross incompetence” without knowing the actual market at time Cubs ready to trade. And, not quite a lock just yet that Cubs will be sellers. Will just have to wait and see.
My expectation is that most likely scenario is that Cubs will be sellers and Bellinger traded for a nice piece. But, stuff has to happen first and things can change and trade market can be fluid. Not a black and white world two weeks before trade deadline.
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In return for a rental, even a top notch player is not likely to fetch much more than a few decent to good prospects. The Cubs already have dozens of those. Let's extend Stroman and seriously consider trying to extend Bellinger (I'm still ambivalent about the latter).
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Bellinger had 2.2 fWAR combined in 2022, 2021, 2020. Not so hot.
And almost 40% of his career fWAR was in his 2019 MVP season.
Clubs don’t pay a guy for what he did five years before the new contract kicks in. They pay for future perceived performance.
So, how Bellinger performs remainder of this season is really crucial to what his market value may be—even more than most guys in their pending free agent walk year.
Let’s see how he performs. The current moment when he’s blazing hot is not the best time to evaluate.
In any case, I think the poor performance of recent years is going to impact, to some extent, his next contract even if he performs well remainder of this season——perhaps in contract length. Skeptical he can get the 8 years that Nimmo got, notwithstanding Bellinger’s age.
Think there’s definitely a case for Cubs showing Bellinger the money but a lot of variables going forward about what that might look like or whether it’s the way to go with Bellinger primarily as a 1B. Jury is out on this, seems to me.
He was injured and not productive. He’s healthily now and has a wRC+137. Swanson has a wRC+ of 108 and Nimmo a 129.
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…..The Contreras pick was pick #68, so it's kinda more like a 3rd round pick. Valuable, for sure. But it's not like the old days when a comp pick came after round 1…..
#68 has been a late 2nd round pick for at least 10 years. In 2022 draft, 3rd round started at #81. This draft was #71 to start 3rd round. Typically, it’s around #75 to start 3rd round.
Yeah, comp at #35 would be better than at #68. But, true comp is what you’re offered at trade deadline compared to #68.
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He was injured and not productive. He’s healthily now and has a wRC+137. Swanson has a wRC+ of 108 and Nimmo a 129.
Yeah, injured and not productive impacts your market value.
Bellinger is on his way to rehabilitating his value but the lengthy “not productive” period doesn't just go away in the market for him. Likely a factor of sorts—remains to be seen how much.
Swanson and Nimmo entered free agency as 4-5 WAR players over their three previous seasons, if we pro-rate 2020 covid year. Bellinger is currently coming off a really good just over 1/2 of one season, as of today. Not the same.
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it was a dumb post. I'm still retraining my brain that a comp pick is in the 60's and not in the 30's. It was a crazy system when we could get a top-45 pick for Todd VanPoppel. And also when contenders could trade a prospect for a rental, use him for two months, and then just get a top-45 pick for the guy if he signed elsewhere.
The CBA's have gotten so much better in their handling of comp picks.
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In return for a rental, even a top notch player is not likely to fetch much more than a few decent to good prospects. The Cubs already have dozens of those. Let's extend Stroman and seriously consider trying to extend Bellinger (I'm still ambivalent about the latter).
That said, the Cubs D+D system has been so lousy that many of our top prospects were trade pickups. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/cubs/
Using the most recent pipeline list (which does not include draft picks), Horton is only draft pick in top 4. (PCA, Brown, Alcantra). Canario, Cassie, and Palencia are 3 more trade pickups in the top 13. So 3-of-top-4 and 6-of-top-13 are trade pickups.
And that's Callis's list, he's going to hang onto Brennen Davis and Cristian Hernandez for years. Once he high-rates guys, it takes him years to down-rate them.
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I'm not sure about a QO. Didn't the Dodgers do one or did they just DFA.
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Bellinger was not eligible for a QO last off-season because he didn’t have 6 full years service time.
This coming off-season is his first time as a service-time FA.
Dodgers did not tender him a contract, so became a non-tendered FA.
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Bellinger even with a mid 700s OPS is an extremely valuable trade chip. Can play very good defense anywhere in the OF or 1B, left-handed power, steals bases. Even before this hot streak he was among the more desirable position players on the market (especially with so few teams overtly tanking)reb, you know this, but I sometimes need to remind myself that a comp pick is in front of round 3. The Contreras pick was pick #68, so it's kinda more like a 3rd round pick. Valuable, for sure. But it's not like the old days when a comp pick came after round 1.
No way a comp pick comes close to the value you could get in a trade. It would be a 3rd-choice consolation prize, assuming you failed in your first two choices of getting into the playoffs, and/or extending Bellinger.
. Not trading him would be flat-out crazy.
I would like to see Berlinger extended or re-signed. But I don’t look at the comp pick as a question of value vs. trade. I think of it as more a means of increasing your funding pool for the next draft. One interesting comment from that Kantrovitz interview was that the Cubs were in the lowest third of the pool of available funds, so did not focus on high school or other players who have greater leverage.
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Yeah, injured and not productive impacts your market value.
Bellinger is on his way to rehabilitating his value but the lengthy “not productive” period doesn't just go away in the market for him. Likely a factor of sorts—remains to be seen how much.
Swanson and Nimmo entered free agency as 4-5 WAR players over their three previous seasons, if we pro-rate 2020 covid year. Bellinger is currently coming off a really good just over 1/2 of one season, as of today. Not the same.
Nimmo has played over 100 games 2 times in his career. He has had more health issues than Bellinger and was older entering free agency. If your going to call Nimmo's 2020 as a 3 fWAR season (1.7) than Bellinger's 1.4 fWAR season should count too. The Cubs need Bellinger's bat and somebody who can hit like Bellinger as well if they want to be good again.
In 2024 without Stroman the Cubs are $102 million below the Luxury Tax. With that $102 million the Cubs need 2 impact bats, 2 starters, fix 1B/3B/bullpen. Seems like a pretty easy off season to pull off.
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I suspect there will be ≥1 teams willing to offer a deal under the premise that 21-22 were injury-based outliers, and that this season better represents what he can be. Seems the 2020 injury is behind him, and shouldn't create enduring physical limitations.
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If Bellinger had signed with any other team, how many of us would hope the Cubs would pursue him after FA?
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The problem with Bellinger is that his quality of contact metrics are terrible this year. He's 7th percentile in hard hit rate, 12th percentile in average exit velocity, 36th percentile in max exit velocity, and 22nd percentile in barrel rate. He rarely hits the ball hard--based on his quality of contact, his expected slugging is only .399.
Bellinger's results just aren't likely to be sustainable if he can't consistently hit the ball harder than he has so far this year. His recent hot streak has made him a great sell high guy, IMO.
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I didn't know those state, br. That's really interesting, and kinda depressing.
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Looking at his advanced stats certainly paints a less rosy picture. I'm not really sure how you get this roster from its current meh into something better.
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Yesterday, the tv crew posted something to the extent that Bellinger was one of the only three to be near the top in three categories. Ohtani was one other. That does not compute with the stats br is quoting. I'm thinking like Mark Twain here. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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Even his MVP year he didn't have great exit velocities or max EV. It might be something to do with his LA and swing. The weird thing is his expected HR's are the highest in Wrigley and not some of the more HR friendly parks. His range is like 10-12 though. Swanson has simular batted ball profiles and his expected HR by park range from 5-12.
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I'm not really sure how you get this roster from its current meh into something better.
I think the best way to do it is to hire a new GM with a different philosophy and wait 2-3 years.
Yesterday, the tv crew posted something to the extent that Bellinger was one of the only three to be near the top in three categories. Ohtani was one other. That does not compute with the stats br is quoting. I'm thinking like Mark Twain here. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
It's true that there are players--even stars--who consistently outperform their quality of contact metrics. Altuve, Arenado, and Bryant come immediately to mind. But Bellinger doesn't have that history--he has never significantly outperformed his expected stats, so I'm skeptical that what we're seeing this year is sustainable.
I think it's interesting to compare Bellinger's Baseball Savant page with Josh Naylor. They've been comparable hitters this year, but Naylor's expected stats are right in line with his results. It really shows how far Bellinger's quality of contact stats are from his actual results.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josh-naylor-647304?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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That's an odd move to me.
I doubt that they would trade Gomes, since he seems to be exactly what they say they want, although there is always the possibility that someone would knock their socks off. And there doesn't seem much reason to give up on Amaya just when he seems to be becoming everything they hoped for.
But I can see them trading Bernhart for anything at all. He is signed for next year (players option) and I cant believe either he would turn down the option or that the Cubs want him to stay at this point. Amaya has really made Bernhard redundant, even if he started to hit at this late point in his career.
If they can't trade him, hopefully they will release him.
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Candelario is playing tonight. Time to turn him.
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I think the best way to do it is to hire a new GM with a different philosophy and wait 2-3 years.
It's true that there are players--even stars--who consistently outperform their quality of contact metrics. Altuve, Arenado, and Bryant come immediately to mind. But Bellinger doesn't have that history--he has never significantly outperformed his expected stats, so I'm skeptical that what we're seeing this year is sustainable.
I think it's interesting to compare Bellinger's Baseball Savant page with Josh Naylor. They've been comparable hitters this year, but Naylor's expected stats are right in line with his results. It really shows how far Bellinger's quality of contact stats are from his actual results.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josh-naylor-647304?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
I don’t know that really fixes it. You have to off load Swanson if that is you plan, because he’ll be in decline then. And I like Cubs development program. I wouldn’t want to get rid of that. Hoyer might not be the guy to be GM/President though. I’m not sure I’m sold on Kantrovitz either.
Bellinger and Naylor have different launch angles. Naylor has more ground balls and Bellinger has more fly balls. I think there is something that it isn’t capturing with Bellinger.
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Candelario is playing tonight. Time to turn him.
I keep forgetting that he played for the 2016 team and again in 2017. It feels like he was one of the guys from the rebuilding years.
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Candelario is playing tonight. Time to turn him.
Candelario is a good player and we should have signed him in the winter (myself and others suggested it), but I wouldn’t give up anything whatsoever of value for a rental. The current team is nowhere near good enough to contend and Candelario wouldn’t change that.
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So who gets traded?
I think the obvious list is pending free agents
Stroman
Bellinger
Fulmer
Gomes
Questionable
Mancini, Hendricks- I'm not sure if they have a market
Merryweather- he might bring back something nice, but he's useful for 2024 as well.
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Wisdom and Barnhardt. Won't bring back much. Neither will any of those other guys with Hoyer doing the trading. We need a total teardown but it starts at the top.
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Cubs have a $6 club option on Gomes for 2024, which is good value for the club.
So, he’s not really a true FA given the club’s control for 2024.
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It's too bad that Hendricks and Smyly haven't shown a little more. Would have liked to have guys like that appeal to some contender looking for a stabilizing guy in the back of their rotation. Not getting a PCA or Alcantara-caliber guy even if they'd been pitching solidly, but something would have been nice.
Hoyer hasn't really had much luck with his veteran starting pitchers for potential trades. Arrieta, Smyly, Davies, Miley, Williams, hasn't really created any value.
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So who gets traded?
I think the obvious list is pending free agents
Stroman
Bellinger
Fulmer
Gomes
Questionable
Mancini, Hendricks- I'm not sure if they have a market
Merryweather- he might bring back something nice, but he's useful for 2024 as well.
I would be shocked if the Cubs trade Gomes. They love what he does with the pitching staff (as do the pitchers) and he'll be a good mentor for Amaya as well.
Nor do I think the Cubs will have any interest in trading Hendricks. I think they value him (for a variety of reasons) far more than the value of what he might bring back in a trade.
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Over his last 9 starts, Smyly has pitched 44.2 IP (just under 5 per start) and allowed 34 earned runs. 6.85 ERA over that range, if my math is correct. Gomes and Hottovy may no longer be the Smyly-whisperers that they thought they were last winter. 10 HR in his last 40 innings.
Hendricks has been super lucky, his BABIP is only slight over .200, but 8HR in 58 innings with few K's doesn't often get you a 3.57 ERA.
The Cubs offense is inconsistent and so-so, and the bullpen is shaky. But at this point, I feel like the rotation is a liability. I know HOyer is just waiting for the team to get hot and win the division after all, but when you're going out there with Smyly and Hendricks and Taillon and giving up a million HR's, it's hard to see it. And how good Steele and Stroman will pitch when they're tired and the innings have piled up, not so sure.
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Move Gomes to the questionable trade list. The Cubs need to dump 1 of Gomes or Barnhart to open up playing time.
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If they can't trade Bernhart, they should release him and eat the contract. And I suspect that is what they will do. Why else bring back Higgens.
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Guessing that Barnhart will be here remainder of this season. Don’t think Higgins will have much to do with that. Higgins is insurance in case of a catcher injury or is a multi-position candidate.
After the season, Barnhart had a $3.25 player option for 2024——which he figures to exercise. Think maybe Cubs will want that 40-man roster spot to protect another guy from the Rule 5 and decide to release Barnhart and pay him off. That’s another reason Cubs figure to keep Gomes for 2024. Development and club enthusiasm for Amaya makes it a lot easier to release Barnhart this off-season. Don’t think Higgins has anything to do with that—and he may sign elsewhere in any case.
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I read that Dom Nunez is hurt at Iowa…that’s probably the reasoning behind bringing back Higgins.
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Sharma notes:
Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are all viewed as critical pieces to not only the present but the future of the Cubs. But the trio, who batted one-two-three in the lineup in Monday’s loss, has now slashed .184/.275/.259 in July.
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What exactly constitutes tampering? Let's say Bellinger is traded? Can management say to him, "Cody, we really like you in Cubbie Blue. Make sure Boras gives us a shot?" Would that be tampering or is it tampering only when he's clearly in another uniform?
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Curt, A question: why would the Cubs wait until he’s traded to tell Bellinger what you suggest?
Cubs could bring the entire brain trust into the manager’s office today, bring in Bellinger, put Boras on a conference call, and then tell both Bellinger and Boras what you suggest.
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I'm not suggesting that they wait. My understanding is that Boras won't talk until negotiating time. I'm saying, if the Cubs told Bellinger TODAY, if you are traded, please give us a shot to get you back...is that tampering according to the rules?
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Talking to their own player about his future with the club?
No, that’s not tampering.
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I believe that it would only be illegal if they reached an agreement to re-sign before being traded. Of course, that would have to be proven.
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Sharma notes:
Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are all viewed as critical pieces to not only the present but the future of the Cubs.
This is the problem with the current version of the Cubs. They're building around good complimentary players like Happ and Hoerner. They need some star hitters.
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This is the problem with the current version of the Cubs. They're building around good complimentary players like Happ and Hoerner. They need some star hitters.
Stars would be great to have but not really fair to say that Happ and Hoerner are here because they flatter and praise others.
They’re good players on the field too.
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What we need is a couple of superstars like Trout and Otani.
Any team with the two best players in baseball would win it every year.
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No
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The bad news on offense: Cubs need two impact bats for this lineup.
The good news on offense: the easiest positions to get impact bats are the Cubs worst two positions relative to the league.
1B and DH.
bWAR at 1B, excluding Bellinger:
Mancini minus1.4
Hosmer minus 0.5
Mervis minus 0.5
Young Minus0.1
Even including Bellinger’s 10 or 11 starts at 1B, this is still the worst 1B performance in NL.
Then there’s DH.
212-286-367
Cubs are #12 in NL DH performance.
This is where impact players can go. 1B and DH. Best positions to find bats
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If you exclude Ohtani because he isn’t coming to this dumpster fire the highest wRC+ that are free agents at 1B/3B/DH
JD Martinez
Justin Turner
Brandon Belt
At least they’ll be in the Hoyer zone for free agent signings.
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Looking back, it's really disappointing the Cubs didn't beat the Braves' quantity-over-quality offer for Sean Murphy. He has all the same soft skills that the Cubs love in Gomes and Barnhart, and he's also a star hitter now that he doesn't have to play half his games in Oakland (which was fairly predictable if you look at his historic stats).
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Free agency is hardly the only way to get a 1B and DH.
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Looking back, it's really disappointing the Cubs didn't beat the Braves' quantity-over-quality offer for Sean Murphy. He has all the same soft skills that the Cubs love in Gomes and Barnhart, and he's also a star hitter now that he doesn't have to play half his games in Oakland (which was fairly predictable if you look at his historic stats).
Or getting Olsen for free or the Brewers part of the Murphy trade.
Free agency is hardly the only way to get a 1B and DH.
Which impact bats 1B/DH/3B are going to be available in trade? Most of them are contenders.
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Which impact bats 1B/DH/3B are going to be available in trade? Most of them are contenders.
The best way is to get unexpected production from players you either develop or help get better. These guys area all over the place from year to year.
In 2023, at 1B/DH, there's Ryan Noda, Rule 5 pick, 131 wRC+ there's Yandy Diaz, a nice player who turned into a 159 wRC= guy, there's Christian Walker who is 125 wRC+ this season, there's Nate Lowe (13th round draft pick) at 124 wRC+ and down from last season; there's Anthony Santander at 131 wRC+ there's Issac Paradees at 143 wRC+.
Happens all the time in baseball. Maybe Mervis will turn into one of these guys. If not, find the right guy(s). Or, re-sign Bellinger and play him at 1B. Who knows who might be available. DH could be anybody at any position. Find the right guy. Geez, can't find a good bat for DH?? Make it a priority instead of whatever Cubs are doing there this season.
All of this is unpredictable. Orioles and Rays are two best teams in AL at the moment with lots of guys having excellent offensive seasons and who are mostly unknown to a lot of fans, probably a lot here on this board too. DBacks got a ton better in short time. Rangers are an offensive behemoth.
Yankees are in last place. Mets suck. Cardinals suck. Padres not so hot. All unpredictable.
You seem to think you know how stuff plays out in baseball. You don't.
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Then there’s DH.
212-286-367
Cubs are #12 in NL DH performance.
Wanted also to note that Morel has 64 PAs as a DH with a .904 OPS as a DH.
So, you can imagine how bad DH has been when Morel was not the DH.
And at 1B, Mancini has the lowest wRC+ of any 1B in the majors with a least 200 PAs.
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Wonder if the Cubs could target Jonathan Aranda from the Rays. Checks a lot of boxes for us - lefty power, can play 3B or 1B - but doesn't seem like he's going to get a shot with Tampa anytime soon. A very good prospect but probably just outside their top 10 - the kind of guy you might get for the right rental(s).
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The best way is to get unexpected production from players you either develop or help get better. These guys area all over the place from year to year.
In 2023, at 1B/DH, there's Ryan Noda, Rule 5 pick, 131 wRC+ there's Yandy Diaz, a nice player who turned into a 159 wRC= guy, there's Christian Walker who is 125 wRC+ this season, there's Nate Lowe (13th round draft pick) at 124 wRC+ and down from last season; there's Anthony Santander at 131 wRC+ there's Issac Paradees at 143 wRC+.
Happens all the time in baseball. Maybe Mervis will turn into one of these guys. If not, find the right guy(s). Or, re-sign Bellinger and play him at 1B. Who knows who might be available. DH could be anybody at any position. Find the right guy. Geez, can't find a good bat for DH?? Make it a priority instead of whatever Cubs are doing there this season.
All of this is unpredictable. Orioles and Rays are two best teams in AL at the moment with lots of guys having excellent offensive seasons and who are mostly unknown to a lot of fans, probably a lot here on this board too. DBacks got a ton better in short time. Rangers are an offensive behemoth.
Yankees are in last place. Mets suck. Cardinals suck. Padres not so hot. All unpredictable.
You seem to think you know how stuff plays out in baseball. You don't.
Trying to find a diamond in the rough is fine if your rebuilding, but counting on that for a "contending" team is going to be questionable at best. For every Noda, Lowe, Walker, Diaz there are a lot more Frank Schwindels.
The Orioles 2 best offensive players are Adley Rutschman and Gunnter Henderson. Rutschman was the#1 prospect in baseball and Henderson was #1 or #2 with Corbin Carroll. If the Cubs had prospects of that quality near the major leagues it would be more 2014 than whatever the current Cubs team is. Heck if the Cubs where the D-Backs or Orioles this board would have a lot different tone to it.
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I have a view that is probably shared by no one on this board. I say, keep both Bellinger and Stroman for the rest of the season regardless. The Cubs are playing very entertaining baseball and that is more valuable to me than acquiring less than elite prospects. Extend Stroman (and perhaps Bellinger) if possible. If not, just keep them. Indeed, add Candelario and let the hand play out.
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Trying to find a diamond in the rough is fine if your rebuilding, but counting on that for a "contending" team is going to be questionable at best. For every Noda, Lowe, Walker, Diaz there are a lot more Frank Schwindels.
The Orioles 2 best offensive players are Adley Rutschman and Gunnter Henderson. Rutschman was the#1 prospect in baseball and Henderson was #1 or #2 with Corbin Carroll. If the Cubs had prospects of that quality near the major leagues it would be more 2014 than whatever the current Cubs team is. Heck if the Cubs where the D-Backs or Orioles this board would have a lot different tone to it.
You’re leaving out something very important about how Cubs get better: context.
As we’ve discussed, Cubs getting killed at two positions that should be easiest positions on defensive spectrum to improve——1B and DH.
Context #1: How bad has production been at 1B and DH?
Cubs WAR at 1B is #30 in majors at Minus2.1.
At DH, Cubs WAR is Zero
Context #2: Cubs are #10 in majors in Runs Scored. Imagine having good production at 1B AND at DH. Very likely that Cubs would be around #5 in Runs scored in majors. Not talking “star quality’ production at these positions but good production (instead of the putrid production now). Not saying that Cubs actually are a top 10 offense now but big improvement at two very bad positions would have an immense impact on overall runs scored. This can be fixed.
With good decisions and a little luck, Cubs can do that going forward. To shake one’s head and say how is it possible to do that? I don’t get that reasoning.
Context#3: Cubs now have a Top Ten farm system. Can’t always identify what particular player(s) can be a Star but there is quantity to draw from. Yes, takes some luck but Baseball is unpredictable. Where’s there’s overall talent, good things tend to happen
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....Context #2: Cubs are #10 in majors in Runs Scored. Imagine having good production at 1B AND at DH. Very likely that Cubs would be around #5 in Runs scored in majors. Not talking “star quality’ production at these positions but good production (instead of the putrid production now)....
This is kinda the anti-awful concept. Cubs have been so awful at 1B/DH, simple reversion-to-the-mean probability suggests that should drift somewhat more anti-awful.
The flip is that while Cubs are #10 in runs, it's really the pitching that's been the more problematic.
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This is kinda the anti-awful concept. Cubs have been so awful at 1B/DH, simple reversion-to-the-mean probability suggests that should drift somewhat more anti-awful.
The flip is that while Cubs are #10 in runs, it's really the pitching that's been the more problematic.
The Cubs are 10th in runs and 15th in runs allowed. The whole problem is shooting for being anti-awful. It makes the error bars too wide and you get the current Cubs team. They aren't as bad as their record, but they just aren't great either. When you shoot for a team that is going to be in a lot of 1 run games you can get this mess.
Getting a league average 1B/3B/DH would make them more a sure bet .500 team. Call it the Jim Hendry plan.
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I have a view that is probably shared by no one on this board. I say, keep both Bellinger and Stroman for the rest of the season regardless. The Cubs are playing very entertaining baseball and that is more valuable to me than acquiring less than elite prospects. Extend Stroman (and perhaps Bellinger) if possible. If not, just keep them. Indeed, add Candelario and let the hand play out.
Kyle Hendricks was at one time a toss in prospect in what was considered to be a lesser deal than what they were originally going to get from the Braves. The worse record would also give them a better chance at a higher draft pick in the lottery which is what the team really needs.
You want an ok team that is enteraining. I want a team that can regularly compete for the World Series. We'll probably never agree on what the Cubs should do, but if they are extending Stroman or Belllinger then they need to committ to being an above the CBT team and risk what happened to the Mets.
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The anti-awful notion is to upgrade the weakest positions, not a notion for the overall lineup to attain.
Big difference.
So, Cubs are #10 in runs scored in MLB——and that’s without anybody far exceeding expectations, aside from Bellinger perhaps. 26 more runs and Cubs would be #5 in majors in runs scored. Seems easily attainable if Cubs anti-awful (or better) at 1B and DH.
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I suppose it’s possible that Cubs can gain some ground in the next eight days and decide to be keepers or even add a piece.
But, more likely is status quo (or worse). If that’s the case, then brass must trade pending free agents. I really don’t care if a non-contending Cubs team wins 5 or 6 more games final 1/3 of the season. You have to get future assets ifout of the race.
Will be too bad came to that, if that happens, but have to get the nice return that Bellinger and Stroman will get you. Doesn’t necessarily have to be guys just starting out in A ball but a nice return. Bellinger and Stroman are at or near top of the trade deadline sellers supply in what seems like a sellers market.
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That makes all the sense in the world, Reb. But I hope they keep them both (and buy) regardless of the next 8 days.
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If the Cubs can sign Stroman and Bellinger, great. But they are not in a good enough position to allow valuable assets to walk away without comensation. If they can't sign them, then they should trade them.
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That makes all the sense in the world, Reb. But I hope they keep them both (and buy) regardless of the next 8 days.
Sure seems like FAs are more likely to re-sign when finish the season with the initial club, compared to FAs who play final 1/3 of season with a new club.
Maybe that’s actually wrong, I don’t know, but seems that way. Yeah, players tend to sign with the highest bidder and that could be anybody. But, if Hoyer thought there actually was some advantage along those lines, he’d keep the player. But no evidence Hoyer has ever thought that way. So, guessing Cubs feel historical data shows no advantage to keep the player instead of trading.
Ironic that in 2022 Cubs kept a pending FA at trade deadline who they had no interest in re-signing after the season.
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I just looked at the predictions folks here made for this season, and how that compares to the way the season has unfolded so far.
Interestingly for all of the disappointment (if not anger) that has been expressed about the team's performance his season, very few people actually expected the Cubs to do better than their current pace would suggest. If their current rate of wins were to hold constant they would end up with 79 wins (rounding up from 78.5).
This is either equal to or better than most predicted, and it is within 3 or 4 games (which obviously could still be easily achievable) what everyone but the following had predicted: DaveP (88), FITS & AzSteve (87), Ray (85) and (surprisingly) BR (83). Not sure, but I think BR is the only one from this group who has been vocally upset about the team's performance this year. However he is certainly not the only one who has been upset by the team's performance to date.
I get that many of the predictions probably represented disappointment regarding the state of the team going into the season. But still ...
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I think your last sentence is the relevant point. Most don't feel the current team is underperforming - the problem is going into the season with a team where you expect to win 75-80 games.
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This is either equal to or better than most predicted, and it is within 3 or 4 games (which obviously could still be easily achievable) what everyone but the following had predicted: DaveP (88), FITS & AzSteve (87), Ray (85) and (surprisingly) BR (83). Not sure, but I think BR is the only one from this group who has been vocally upset about the team's performance this year. However he is certainly not the only one who has been upset by the team's performance to date.
If you're talking about me, I wasn't that positive. I predicted 74 wins, Curt and Robert L had 83.
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I think I was on 77 and that still sounds about right.
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If you're talking about me, I wasn't that positive. I predicted 74 wins, Curt and Robert L had 83.
One of those two ain't very smart.
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I'm less enthusiastic about Stroman. I think the fan reaction to losing Bellinger would be worse. When Belli was injured, this was an unexciting team. Don't care what their actual record was, they weren't much fan to watch. That's another factor Hoyer has to weigh: how many ticket sales will be lost and Belli jerseys, etc., will the team lose? Are they equal to the value of a couple of suspects? Gotta have money to sign more FA, including maybe Stroman and Bellinger. I think we often forget this is a business and there is more value to some players than suspects.
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Sure seems like FAs are more likely to re-sign when finish the season with the initial club, compared to FAs who play final 1/3 of season with a new club. Maybe that’s actually wrong, I don’t know, but seems that way. ... But, if Hoyer thought there actually was some advantage along those lines, he’d keep the player.....
Yes. Bellinger has been a really good player this season. The Cubs can use every >.900-OPS guy they can get. Especially in their 20's. Especially who plays excellent defense. Especially one with capacity for 4 positions (plus DH). Perhaps by end of his next contract he'll age out of CF, but I really don't think he's going to age out of any of LF, RF, or 1B for a long, long time.
So yeah, *IF* Hoyer thinks keeping the guy boosts his chance of signing with you this winter, even if only a little bit, I'd think Hoyer will keep him. I strongly expect that he does keep him past the trade deadline for those exact reasons.
.... But no evidence Hoyer has ever thought that way. So, guessing Cubs feel historical data shows no advantage to keep the player instead of trading....
Not sure, reb? In cases of Baez-Bryant-Rizzo-Arrieta, I'm not sure Hoyer-Theo envisioned those players wanting to re-sign at prices Hoyer-Theo were going to consider good value, once they reached FA.
To phrase it differently, I think Theo and Hoyer knew they didn't want to pay them FA market price, at those particular moments in budget and rebuild and farm-destitution?
But with Bellinger, at this point in budget, rebuild and farm strength, I think Hoyer wants to extend him at a fair-market price. *IF* the market goes super-crazy, of course Hoyer may step back. But I think that as with Swanson's case, that Hoyer will really like Bellinger's age and fit and chemistry. And his baseball capacity, as demonstrated this season.
I think he's staying.
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I'm less enthusiastic about Stroman. ..
I agree. Stroman and Bellinger are totally different cases.
Bellinger is a position player with a zillion positions, in his 20's. You could sign him fo 6 years, and he'd still likely be good defensively at 1B or LF/RF 5-6 years out.
But Stroman is over 4 years older, and he's a pitcher with lots of wear on his arm. He may be almost cooked. >.850-OPS hitters are really hard to find and replace. Finesse older pitchers like Stroman, they can fade pretty quickly, ala Lester and Lackey and Quintana. I'd not be super eager to extend him at very long, big-money. And *IF* you could pick up some very good prospect(s) in return, I'd be good with that.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
The Cubs reinstated RHP Adrian Sampson from the 60-day IL today and outrighted him to Triple-A Iowa.
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The anti-awful notion is to upgrade the weakest positions, not a notion for the overall lineup to attain.
Big difference.
So, Cubs are #10 in runs scored in MLB——and that’s without anybody far exceeding expectations, aside from Bellinger perhaps. 26 more runs and Cubs would be #5 in majors in runs scored. Seems easily attainable if Cubs anti-awful (or better) at 1B and DH.
You were saying the same thing last off season. If Bellinger isn’t mashing this offense is significantly worse. Just shooting for upgrades is shooting to makes this a .500 team that might contend for division if everything works perfectly.
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You were saying the same thing last off season. If Bellinger isn’t mashing this offense is significantly worse. Just shooting for upgrades is shooting to makes this a .500 team that might contend for division if everything works perfectly.
If “everything” works perfectly?
What has worked perfectly this season offensively to get Cubs to #10 in majors in runs scored?
Cubs individual offensive performances have been no better than mostly-expected this season, aside from Bellinger. Indeed, Happ and Suzuki have been lower on power than expected, which has really hurt. Whatever Morel has done well in his partial season has been balanced negatively by Mervis poor showing. Swanson, mostly as expected. Hoerner, mostly as expected. Catching, mostly as expected. 3B? Blah.
Not too much has gone perfectly, but Cubs are #10 in runs scored compared to #22 in 2022—even with putrid offense at 1B and DH.
Don’t really grasp notion that “shooting for upgrades” for 2024—in those 2023-putrid performance positions—is shooting for .500. No, it’s shooting to score a lot more runs.
Yes, would be great to fill those spots with proven “star” performers. Star performer is better than very good performer. Better than good performer. Better than bit-better-than-average performer. All of the above is better than putrid performer. That’s what every team (other than tankers) tries to do: get better.
So, yes, I’m always in favor of getting better, especially in positions performing badly.
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I just looked at the predictions folks here made for this season, and how that compares to the way the season has unfolded so far.
Interestingly for all of the disappointment (if not anger) that has been expressed about the team's performance his season, very few people actually expected the Cubs to do better than their current pace would suggest. If their current rate of wins were to hold constant they would end up with 79 wins (rounding up from 78.5).
This is either equal to or better than most predicted, and it is within 3 or 4 games (which obviously could still be easily achievable) what everyone but the following had predicted: DaveP (88), FITS & AzSteve (87), Ray (85) and (surprisingly) BR (83). Not sure, but I think BR is the only one from this group who has been vocally upset about the team's performance this year. However he is certainly not the only one who has been upset by the team's performance to date.
I get that many of the predictions probably represented disappointment regarding the state of the team going into the season. But still ...
Mea culpa. Please ignore this post entirely. Turns out I was sloppy and looked at the wrong year of projections. Guess I need to be a bit more careful in the future.
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It didn't matter. I think I forecase 88 wins every year, on the assumption that sooner or later, I will hit it on the nose. I use the same system for lottery tickets.
Surprisingly, the system has never worked in either case.
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Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Trade Deadline perspective:
The Angels are unsure of buy/sell direction. The Cubs are viewed as a likely seller.
The
@baseball_ref
postseason odds present a different view: The Cubs (37.6%) have a 4x higher chance of reaching the playoffs than the Angels (9.4%).
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Mooney has a very good column on Kyle Hendricks.
https://theathletic.com/4717235/2023/07/25/cubs-kyle-hendricks-trade-deadline-2/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Trade Deadline perspective:
The Angels are unsure of buy/sell direction. The Cubs are viewed as a likely seller.
The
@baseball_ref
postseason odds present a different view: The Cubs (37.6%) have a 4x higher chance of reaching the playoffs than the Angels (9.4%).
Fansgraph.com gives the Cubs and Angels identical chances of 13.6%. We'll need to let this play out. Personally, I don't see them trading their big 2 unless their chances fall under 10% again. Of course, a 13.6% changes of making it to (essentially) the round of 16 isn't saying much.
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Not trading Bellinger and Stroman would be a terrible mistake.
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Hendricks extension - $16/2. Yes or no?
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It didn't matter. I think I forecase 88 wins every year, on the assumption that sooner or later, I will hit it on the nose. I use the same system for lottery tickets.
Surprisingly, the system has never worked in either case.
Didn't this win for you in 2003?
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I'm too young to have voted in 2003.
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Sharma has what I consider to be a very worthwhile column on the encroaching trade deadline for the Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/4721791/2023/07/26/cubs-trade-deadline-bellinger-stroman/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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Sharma has what I consider to be a very worthwhile column on the encroaching trade deadline for the Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/4721791/2023/07/26/cubs-trade-deadline-bellinger-stroman/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
On there podcast with Mooney, Sharma and Taylor they kind of discussed this as well. From listening to the podcasts all year Mooney, Sharma and Taylor have made it pretty clear they want to cover a Cubs team that is better on the field than the last couple of years. They are ok with .500ish teams, because it makes their job more enjoyable and probably generates a fair number of clicks to help them keep their jobs. I don't really see an argument in that article or their podcasts on how you get this team from where it is into something better. Sure there's a chance they can compete for the division, but it is because the division is horrible.
My whole grief with Swanson and the Cubs in general is how you take this team and turn into a World Series contender or at least something approaching one of the better teams in baseball. This team is meh. The prospects a fine, great depth, some possible good players. There isn't a Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell in they system yet. The star power is just lacking.
The only argument I can see for why they Cubs should try and contend is they are going to go balls to the walls for Ohtani and they need a winning record and Bellinger resigned to make it happen. That solves a lot of the Cubs problems. There is probably like a 0.000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of that happening.
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Marquee is currently showing yesterday’s game. When I tune into Marquee on DirecTV, it looks like the channel is not even available. This is different as of yesterday.
Does this mean Marquee is no longer available on DirecTV? Or will it only be available when the Cubs are on live?
Does anyone know for sure?
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Take it FWIW. KXNO is sports station in Des Moines.
Hot Stove Cubbies
@HotStoveCubbies
David Kaplan was just on KXNO and had the following juicy nuggets I would like to share:
1. The Cubs FO was ready to sell as recently as last week however the current Cubs play has changed that stance into a holding pattern.
2. Gomes & Hendricks will be staying put regardless.
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How seriously should one take David Kaplan?
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2. Gomes & Hendricks will be staying put regardless.
I would be surprised if Hendricks ever leaves the Cubs. I think he'll be part of the front office or on the coaching staff the day after he retires.
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Hendricks extension - $16/2. Yes or no?
There is a $1.5 buyout for next year. So $16/2 would effectively be $14.5/2.
I'd say yes.
Hendricks kinds looks like himself again, and he'd be fine as your 5th guy.
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The prospects a fine, great depth, some possible good players. There isn't a Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell in they system yet. The star power is just lacking.
Unless your team has a top 3 to 5 pick, the chances of obtaining a superstar through the draft is more a matter of random luck than anything else. The GOOD systems concentrate on players with the potential to be good to very good, and if any turn out to be superstars, great. But the chances of getting a Pujols in the 12th round, or even the second round is more a matter of chance than of foresight. Generally, superstars are brought in through free agency, where the skill level is more or less known, rather than a matter of projection.
If a farm system is consistantly producing good to very good players, it is then a matter of being able to sign those that other teams developed, and that is more a matter of finance than scouting skill. The luxury tax system attempts to bring equity into the system, but is obviously less than perfect. The Yankees and Dodgers have gross revenue of more than 100 million dollars extra to spend than lesser market teams, even the Cubs in Chicago, have at their disposal.
That means that if a lesser tier team has to consistantly bring in superstar free agents beyond what they have developed, and the only way they can afford that on a continuing bases is to have a continuing supply of the good to very good youngsters coming up every year to replace those that can not be retained financially. The Cardinals are a good example of how to have reasonable success with limited resources. They bring up good players such as Craig, Adams, Bader, etc. and trade them before they reach their last year or two of arbitration, and replace them with cheap but equally good prospects. The superstars they bring in are for a reasonable length of time, and are not resigned for a term beyond their expected production life. When Pujols reaches the end of his peak performance, they let someone else deal with the aging process, and it's associated budget problems.
That is why prospect depth is extremely important. If you have prospects such as Carlson, Nootbaar, ONiel and Walker, you can more safely trade your Phams, Baders, etc. and thus stay within your long term budget restraints.
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How seriously should one take David Kaplan?
I would take him more seriously than most sources, particularly on these two items - both of which make sense.
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Rogers was on a Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintlez’s podcast and Rodgers thinks if they if they buy it would be to add to the bullpen.
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Could Tim Anderson play 3B?
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Rogers doesn’t think they will go over the luxury tax and said he thought it was around $5 million or so of space on Kaplan’s ESPN radio show. So think more the Dan Haren of the bullpen.
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Tim Anderson and Aaron Bummer
Anderson has a club option for next year. Bummer is due 5.5 next season, then club options after that.
Their remaining money for this year should be right around 5M…
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Bummer would be an okay addition, but Anderson, to me, is a thug. I've never cared for him or his antics. But that's just me. I know he's a star player.
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Anderson is kinda crazy.
*He's got zero HR, less than Mastrobuoni or Madrigal or Tucker Barnhart.
*He's got a .285 OBP and .285 slugging! How many every-day guys slug .285?
*OPS+ of 59, wow.
*Really fallen off from his 2019 prime. Sure didn't see that coming. Wonder if that's reversible and next year he'll be productive offensively again? Or if the league just figured out what he can't do; adjustment attempts don't work or maybe make things worse; and after persistent failure the confidence just vanishes?
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Rogers doesn’t think they will go over the luxury tax and said he thought it was around $5 million or so of space on Kaplan’s ESPN radio show. So think more the Dan Haren of the bullpen.
Yeah, I'd think it would be dumb to give up a primo prospect for a possible-but-improbable wildcard run. [Even in the improbable event that effort succeeds, how likely is it to win a 3-game series with dead-armed Stroman as ace?]
I'm fine to try, rather than to sell. And fine to tinker. But I don't think trying is worth sacrificing a really good prospect. Or worth jumping the lux line. Not an issue of being cheap now, but due to future implications of doing so when being well over is going to be important.
That said, Blue, *IF* Hoyer really has $5M below the lux line, I don't see that as hugely limiting? There's only 1/3 of season after deadline, so only 1/3 of salary. How many good relievers have >$15M salaries? A reliever with a $15 salary wouldn't be the Dan Haren of relievers.
For example, with $5M hypothetically in lux space, you could still hypothetically lux-afford both afford Candelario ($5M) and $10M in reliever(s).
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The bullpen has two halves.
1. use-when-winning guys: Merryweather-Fulmer-Leiter-Alzolay.
2. use-when-losing: Kay, Palencia, Rucker, and Assad.
When we've been losing more than we win, having half the bullpen as use-when-losing guys works. But *IF* the Cubs are hypothetically going to win ≥86 games and go ≥36-21 to get there, you'll need more than 4 use-when-winning guys.
I could see wanting to add somebody. Not necessarily of the scope of Chapman for Gleyber, but somebody who could pitch 6th or 7th inning on games when Merryweather or Leiter have already pitched back-to-back days.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Cubs updates:
Nick Madrigal will play again tonight at Iowa.
Brad Boxberger is scheduled to throw a bullpen tomorrow.
Nick Burdi will throw another ‘pen this weekend.
Ethan Roberts has been playing catch and will soon resume throwing bullpens.
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Thanks, reb. The bullpen posts this morning had made me wonder what ever happened to Boxberger. I think they'd thought he'd be a reasonable use-when-winning guy. Not sure they'd expected him out this long.
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Tim Anderson and Aaron Bummer
Anderson has a club option for next year. Bummer is due 5.5 next season, then club options after that.
Their remaining money for this year should be right around 5M…
What part most appeals with Anderson, the .285 SLG or the -1.2 WAR?
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What part most appeals with Anderson, the .285 SLG or the -1.2 WAR?
Obviously, I would prefer Jose Ramirez or Nolan Arenado, but I think they might cost more.
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If you want to stay under the CBT, you can’t spend every dollar. If there is an injury and you have to add someone to the 40 man that would put you over.
Mooney mention Bummer and CJ Cron as targets. That would be just over $10 million in CBT money. That was just a little more than what Robertson made and the Marlins where taking on $4 million in salary.
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Guaranteeing Mancini a 2-year $14M, that is really regrettable. Hosmer, that was a fail, but at least it cost nothing and they could dump him freely. I know, Mancini's not on scale with Theo's Heyward deal, or Theo's Edwin Jackson multi-year bust. But Mancini, did Hoyer really need to guarantee him $7 for next year? Mancini's agent sure deserves an A+ for that one. An extra $7M for a reliever this year, and an extra $7M for some reliever next year would have been nice.
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I think I might be understanding why the Padres didn't put up much of a fight when Jed left them to join Theo in Chicago.
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Hoyer was one of three finalists for the Nats GM job when Hoyer was still at Boston—the job Mike Rizzo got (Jerry Dipoto was the third finalist).
Then, Hoyer got the Padres job. Cubs got Hoyer and Jason McLeod from the Padres as sort of a package. Padres were to get a prospect(s) back as compensation. Anybody remember who that was?
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I think that was Chris Carpenter. He'd been a 3rd round pick, a big power-arm guy. Wildman who was always injured.
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Carpenter was compensation to the Red Sox for Theo.
Carpenter truly was the Wildman. Catcher would set up and typically Carpenter rarely could hit the glove. Really no point to catcher setting up on a corner. Saw Carpenter pitch once in D.C. against Nets relieving with runners on base. First pitch wild-pitch….but then was lights out for a 2-inning stint. Hot or cold and not much in between.
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The compensation turned out to be…nothing…
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2012/10/21/the-compensation-for-jed-hoyer-and-jason-mcleod-is-nothing-and-other-bullets/
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Rucker optioned to Iowa.
Wesneski up....and starting tonight against Cards.
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Happy for the winning streak but it shouldn’t change the trade deadline approach: Sell Sell Sell.
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Happy for the winning streak but it shouldn’t change the trade deadline approach: Sell Sell Sell.
Don't sell. That's what losing organizations do.
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Happy for the winning streak but it shouldn’t change the trade deadline approach: Sell Sell Sell.
Dan Szymborski, a mainstay at Fangraphs, has below this proposed trade return for both Bellinger and Stroman. Not too exciting, seems to me.
Instead, how about actually trying to win?
“The Los Angeles Angels acquire OF Cody Bellinger and P Marcus Stroman from the Chicago Cubs for P Jack Kochanowicz, SS Kyren Paris, and P Sam Bachman.”
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There is little point in evaluating a potential trade without access to the scouting reports that the Cubs might have on each of them, but I assume that it the players offered are not deemed to be worth it, the Cubs will not make the trade.
But what the heck. If the offer seems good, let's take it, and try to win anyway. We traded our three best players a few years ago, and actually played better afterwords.
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The NL is really tight in the group of teams behind the Dodgers/Braves.
*League-wise, the cubs are in 9th place, but only 3 behind 3rd-place Brewers.
*How those 7 teams shake out, who knows.
*But I doubt any of Brewers-Giants-Reds-Phillies-DBacks-Marlins-Cubs will be selling.
4 will be in, 3 out for playoffs.
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CHICAGO -- The Cubs' turnaround on the field has led to a change in strategy off it as opposing teams have been told outfielder and free-agent-to-be Cody Bellinger will not be traded, according to sources familiar with the situation.
The Cubs, winners of eight in a row heading into Sunday's contest against the St. Louis Cardinals, will instead look to add relief help as they've closed the gap in the NL Central division race as well as for an NL wild card spot. The Cubs are 3.5 games behind first place Milwaukee and just 3 games out of the final wild card spot.
Editor's Picks
This MLB trade deadline goes through Chicago -- Here's what that means for the Cubs and White Sox
1dJesse Rogers
Bellinger, 28, is having a resurgent year after signing a one-year, $17 million contract with Chicago last offseason. He's hitting .315/.368/.540 this season but has been even better since the All-Star break. His OPS since then is 1.140 while playing stellar defense, both in centerfield and first base.
Scouts from other teams have been following the Cubs in anticipation of them subtracting come the trade deadline which is Tuesday evening. But their win streak has changed the trajectory of the team and Bellinger.
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Cubs fortunes seem to change week-to-week, so bad idea to make any firm conclusions in the midst of a nice winning streak—ditto for any big conclusions in midst of a losing streak too. Would be no big surprise if things go south.
But, but, maybe offense in pretty good shape going forward?
1B and DH have been sore spots, but now Morel productive as the mostly-DH, Bellinger as the mostly-1B, Madrigal as the mostly-3B, and Tauchman getting on base when Bellinger is at 1B.
Even room for improvement if Happ and Suzuki hit with more power, which is hardly pie-in-the-sky—could actually happen. Maybe even Hoerner can pick it up offensively?
Maybe Gomes hitting a bit over his head against righties (he’s always been good vs. lefties career), but nobody else is going weirdly good. Yeah, Tauchman, who knows. But Tauchman seems to be settling in with his career.
As I’ve noted a few times, Cubs now #3 in NL in runs scored per game—very slightly ahead of DBacks. Of course, Cubs offense nowhere near as good as Braves and Dodgers but that’s it. Cubs #3 for now. #3 out of 15 is pretty good, right?
And, this group of position players is solid defensively too.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Edwin Ríos has been outrighted to Iowa. That puts the Cubs' 40-man roster at 39.
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If we tried to add a starter and lefty reliever, the Combo's are Cease and Bummer or Snell and Hader. I'm sure they would want to much for those guys, although maybe Bummer alone would be cheap. Verlander would only be possible as a salary dump. I wouldn't give any decent prospects for an old man like Davep.
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No *&#ing rentals. It’s bad enough we’re not cashing in on ours based on 10 days of beating up tanking teams.
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If we tried to add a starter and lefty reliever, the Combo's are Cease and Bummer or Snell and Hader. I'm sure they would want to much for those guys, although maybe Bummer alone would be cheap. Verlander would only be possible as a salary dump. I wouldn't give any decent prospects for an old man like Davep.
Granted, Verlander is about my age (41). But I am much better looking.
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I think that it is foolish to actually become buyers at this point, since there is no way that this team can be improved enough to be a serious contender for a World Series victory. But although Stroman, if not traded, is a total loss, Bellinger will actually bring back an impactful return in the draft. Not so much in the value of a late second round pick, but in the slot money that accompanies it. If things fall right, it could give us the equal of a second, first round pick by underslotting one of the two second round picks.
Still, I would much have preferred selling off our prospective free agents if we are not going to sign them.
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41x2=82
Arithmetic is painful.
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Verlander plus Davep is more like 41+82=123
=
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……Still, I would much have preferred selling off our prospective free agents if we are not going to sign them.
So, I’m curious how you absorbed Tauchman’s game-winning catch Friday that virtually guaranteed there would be no selloff.
Would you have preferred that the ball bounce off Tauchman’s glove and land beyond the wall for a Cardinals win?
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So, I’m curious how you absorbed Tauchman’s game-winning catch Friday that virtually guaranteed there would be no selloff.
Would you have preferred that the ball bounce off Tauchman’s glove and land beyond the wall for a Cardinals win?
Nope. I always root for the Cubs to win. Regardless, I hope that they trade them rather than lose them with no adequate compensations, since the chances of their actually going on to win the World Series this year are not large enough to take seriously.
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Sounds like both are wanting to stay, so why do you keep insisting we'll be left with nothing? Yes, money talks and they both may still leave, but the Cubs have made a clear statement to both of theh. Or, then again, maybe just Bellinger.
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Nope. I always root for the Cubs to win. Regardless, I hope that they trade them rather than lose them with no adequate compensations, since the chances of their actually going on to win the World Series this year are not large enough to take seriously.
Okay, seems like you’re rooting for Cubs to have won those games while knowing that winning those games means no compensation.
So, Winning = Cubs seemingly became Buyers and not Sellers. No adequate compensation if what you’re rooting for happens (Tauchman makes catch and Cubs win).
Maybe that’s just the dilemma of being a fan and balancing short-term and long-term. Not easy.
Just last season, 89-win Padres knocked off 111-win Dodgers in division series and, therefore, 87-win Phillies got to play those 89-win Padres in NLCS. Stuff like that happens in baseball. If make the post-season, not so clear what is a “serious” chance to advance and win. Cubs fortunes rise and fall every couple weeks it seems.
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Sounds like both are wanting to stay, so why do you keep insisting we'll be left with nothing? Yes, money talks and they both may still leave, but the Cubs have made a clear statement to both of theh. Or, then again, maybe just Bellinger.
Yes, the Cubs have made a clear statement of them. They will try to sign them after they become free agents. And they have both made clear statements that being traded will not prevent them from re-signing with the Cubs. So in effect, the Cubs gain nothing from retaining them for the rest of the season (other than a 1 percent of keeping them and thus winning the World Series), but gain future assets if they trade them.
As Reb has often said, no one knows the future. When the Cubs traded their best three players in 2021, their performance for the rest of the year actually improved. I don't expect that to happen this year, but the chances of that happening are probaby better than the chances of their going on to win the World Series this year.
As I said above, a valid case can be made that retaining Bellinger, and gaining the slot money for next year's draft might be as valuable as whatever he can bring in in a trade. But there is no such argument related to Stroman. He should be traded for whatever he can bring, as well as any other potential free agents. We can still try to sign him when he becomes a free agent.
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I pretty much agree with Brett:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/07/31/the-difference-between-selling-and-being-wrong-and-buying-and-being-wrong/
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The demand for starting pitchers on the trade market is fairly high and supply is pretty low. The Cubs have apparently told teams that Bellinger is off the trade market, but I haven't seen the same said for Stroman. With his lack of QO I wonder if the Cubs try and do a buy/sell like the Brewers did with Hader.
The Cubs schedule is pretty favorable with a bunch of tanking teams, kind of like last year when they went on a winning streak. So getting rid of Stroman might not affect their chances too much at getting into the playoffs. Of course that might mess with dynamic of current team, kinda like it did with the Brewers.
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Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
SOURCES told
@thekapman
and me: The Cubs are talking to the Nationals on a trade for Jeimer Candelario, who's not in the Nationals lineup tonight.
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Rosenthal just tweeted that the Cubs got Jeimer.
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I wonder what the Cubs are thinking in terms of trade fodder? I think they've got a kind of a diverse store of pitchers with variably interesting arms that they could include. Luke Little, Bailey Horn, Ryan Jensen, Caleb Killian, Birdsell, Kohl Franklin, Brody McCollough, Herz, Estrada, Manny Rodriguez, Sanders. They've got a mishmash of arms who have a chance. A guy from somewhere in that class (lower end of that group) might seem pretty reasonable for a Candelario. For somebody like Bednar, probably not, need somebody more on the Palencia end. But we've got enough guys with some interesting stuff, good enough so that some other team might think they can untap something that hasn't quite clicked yet. Or maybe a team thinks somebody like ManRod has clicked, but the Cubs just haven't given him the chance yet.
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Rosenthal just tweeted that the Cubs got Jeimer.
Well, that was quick.
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Rosenthal just tweeted that the Cubs got Jeimer.
I like it!
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Maybe can now trade Madrigal in a deal for a reliever, like Scott Barlow.
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Herz and Made
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Not a fan of either the player or the cost.
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Both Rule 5 eligible this off-season…
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Both Rule 5 eligible this off-season…
And the Cubs have a ton of interesting guys for Rule 5 consideration this year. If we don't trade some of these players, we'll lose them for nothing. These are absolutely the chips we should be cashing in here at the deadline.
At this point I trust the Cubs to do a pretty great job developing relievers (prospects and LIAB-types), so as exciting as Herz' potential may be, he's replaceable.
Made has at least Swanson, Hoerner, Madrigal, Morel, Rojas, Hernandez, Triantos, and Shaw ahead of him on the org MI depth charts, with other players in his tier (D Valdez, J Rivera, etc.). He's unlikely to be anything more than a backup IF, and is therefore extremely unlikely to ever contribute to the Cubs' major league team, given aforementioned MI depth.
Meanwhile Candelario has basically been as good as Swanson and Belli this year, rating out as about a top 30 player by WAR. Significant addition to the team, and perhaps the best bat that will get moved here at the deadline, in a trade market that is light on offense.
I like the acquisition a lot.
Now go get Bummer.
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What is his contract status?
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Free agent end of year
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I hate giving up Herz for a rental. Not a perfect prospect by any means but has elite ability to miss bats from the left side. If he puts it all together we'll regret that one. Made, not a huge fan but he's too good to be the second piece in a trade like this.
Of course you can try and sign Candelario after the season, but that would have been true anyway. I get the urge to go for it after three years of tanking (and not even really good tanking), and Candelario is a logical fit - I've been campaigning for him since the winter. But this is the wrong time to lose the plot, after having suffered through those three years to start building something.
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Both Rule 5 eligible this off-season…
CUBS MINOR LEAGUERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN 2023 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 7-27-2023):
Pablo Aliendo, C
Ezequiel Alvarez, INF-OF
Jose Aquino, LHP
Max Bain, RHP
Bradlee Beesley, OF
Hunter Bigge, RHP
David Bote, INF (Article XX-D player)
Yovanny Cabrera, RHP
Burl Carraway, LHP
Derek Casey, RHP
Chris Clarke, RHP (Article XX-D player)
Luis Devers, RHP
Jefferson Encarnacion, OF
Manuel Espinoza, RHP
Miguel Fabrizio, C-1B
Anderson Feliz, RHP (on Restricted List)
Kohl Franklin, RHP
Richard Gallardo, RHP
Reivaj Garcia, INF
Saul Gonzalez, RHP
Ethan Hearn, C
DJ Herz, LHP
Darius Hill, OF
Porter Hodge, RHP
Bailey Horn, LHP
Joel Jimenez, RHP
Levi Jordan, INF
Chris Kachmar, RHP
Caleb Knight, C
Scott Kobos, LHP
Adam Laskey, LHP
Ben Leeper, RHP
Luke Little, LHP
Joel Machado, LHP
Kevin Made, INF
Nelson Maldonado, 1B
Michael McAvene, RHP
Scott McKeon, INF
Ismael Mena, OF
Gregori Montano, RHP
Juan Mora, INF
Cristian More, OF
Rafael Morel, INF
Joe Nahas, RHP
Jordan Nwogu, OF
Johzan Oquendo, RHP
Miguel Pabon, INF-C
Ezequiel Pagan, OF
Jack Patterson, LHP
Fabian Pertuz, INF
Yohendrick Pinango, OF
Reggie Preciado, INF
Malcom Quintero, C
Sheldon Reed, RHP
Jake Reindl, RHP
Samuel Rodriguez, LHP
Cole Roederer, OF
Cam Sanders, RHP
Tyler Schlaffer, RHP
Jake Slaughter, INF
Felix Stevens, 1B-OF
Chase Strumpf, INF
Riley Thompson, RHP
Sam Thoresen, RHP
Cayne Ueckert, RHP
Luis Verdugo, INF
Jake Washer, C
Andy Weber, INF
Jacob Wetzel, OF
Blake Whitney, RHP
Brad Wieck, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Bryce Windham, C-INF
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
The Cubs have traded OF Nelson Velázquez to the Royals for RHP Jose Cuas
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Bote? I completely forgotten about him. Assume he's been unspectacular.
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Not much to like in the numbers with Coas. Doesn't throw hard and the results are mediocre.
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So it may have been a trade to open spot for PCA.
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I prefer Madrigal over Jeimer. Not sure what Cuas brings other than the Cubs saying they were buyers and tried to make positive moves. Both seem to be lateral moves.
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So it may have been a trade to open spot for PCA.
That would be dubious judgment IMHO, but who knows. I'm sure there's something in the spin rates or something that the Cubs think their pitch lab can work magic with.
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I prefer Madrigal over Jeimer. Not sure what Cuas brings other than the Cubs saying they were buyers and tried to make positive moves. Both seem to be lateral moves.
Yeah, only difference is that Candelario has a 121 wRC+ to Madrigal’s 94 wRC+ and Candelario on a pace for 4-5 WAR and Madrigal 1.5-2 WAR.
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Candelario hasn't played much 1B for a long time but historically has been serviceable there. He also has big platoon splits this season in favor of the left side, though not over his career. I would imagine Madrigal will still get plenty of ABs.
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The Royals are horrible at pitching development..
Cuas throws a sinker (48%) slider (32%) 4 seam (16%% changup (4%).
His stuff+
Sinker:94
Slider: 110
Four seam: 151
Change up: 85
Make him a four seam, slider only and he’ll be better. If you can tweak the slider a bit and get him on a weighted ball program to get get his velocity up a bit and he could be really good. With his current bad pitch mix he has the same stuff+ as Barlow and he’ has 6 years of control.
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Cuas is a converted position player who re-started his career after being out of baseball (worked as a Fedex driver in NYC) and got back via Atlantic League. Sidearm delivery.
Seems like a lot to work with here with a fresh arm relative to his age and potential, as CBJ notes.
Always thought of Velazquez as mind of Canario-light, so makes sense.
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The Royals are horrible at pitching development..
Cuas throws a sinker (48%) slider (32%) 4 seam (16%% changup (4%).
His stuff+
Sinker:94
Slider: 110
Four seam: 151
Change up: 85
Make him a four seam, slider only and he’ll be better. If you can tweak the slider a bit and get him on a weighted ball program to get get his velocity up a bit and he could be really good. With his current bad pitch mix he has the same stuff+ as Barlow and he’ has 6 years of control.
Yep, parts of Cubs Twitter calling out Cuas’ elite spin rates, etc.
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I guess the question for the Tuesday deadline is: do Cubs trade for a lefty reliever?
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Hendricks is no longer alone as a member of the 2016 team with the Cubs now.
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Will be interesting to compare future production for Velasquez versus Suzuki. Nice opportunity for Nelson to get some AB and see what he can show.
This spring, "Suzuki has packed on 15 pounds of muscle, looking really strong, power might jump!" Next spring, we'll read some stories "Suzuki has lost weight. Got a chance to look more flexible and athletic in the box."
If he can bounce back and become average or better, that would be helpful. But so long as Ross is trying to sneak into the playoffs, he may want to just go with the hot-hand (or maybe the anti-frigid hand?) on a day-to-day basis so long as we're pursuing 2023 playoffs. For next year, who knows, but Seiya as an every-day guy probably should be allowed but not assumed?
I wonder in a next-season world where hypothetically both Bellinger is re-signed and PCA is called up at some point. I wonder which would play center and which right? Doesn't matter really, good outfielders are good wherever they play.
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Yep, parts of Cubs Twitter calling out Cuas’ elite spin rates, etc.
His release point is really similar to Effross and he still has two options left. I really like the pick up.
While Vasquez might be productive for the Royals, he really didn't have much of a chance of playing here and I think most people on the board would trade him for Wesneski.
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I'm guessing Amaya down for Jeimer? I admit that if they closed the book on Wisdom, I'd not mind. Multi-year Mancini is probably ensured by Hoyer's contract blunder.
Is it assumed Cuas will join the Cubs? Or Iowa for now?
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His release point is really similar to Effross and he still has two options left. I really like the pick up.
While Vasquez might be productive for the Royals, he really didn't have much of a chance of playing here and I think most people on the board would trade him for Wesneski.
Yeah, Velasquez didn't really seem to have much of a long-term fit. Might have been an anti-awful upgrade on Suzuki or Mancini, for this year. But multi-year contracts don't really allow for that.
If Cuas is as effective as Effross was last year, that would be a great pickup. Unfortunately having an Effross-type arm slot doesn't ensure Effross-level command. Effross had great K/BB/HR splits, because his command was so flukishly good for his arm slot. 1.0 WHIP. Cuas is 1.6 WHIP, with double the HR rate.
I'm always game to try a new arm, and see if you can get more out of him. With options and years of control, I like the possibility. Unlike outfielders, there is always opportunity for relief pitchers. Perhaps he'll turn into Effross and be a great pickup down the road. I'm optimistic and fine to trust the Cubs scouting and pitch selection and pitching "infrastructure".
But given how dependent pitching always is on location, I'm never overly confident that Cubs "infrastructure" can fix wildman.
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But given how dependent pitching always is on location, I'm never overly confident that Cubs "infrastructure" can fix wildman.
Yeah who cares if a guy has a great spin rate if you can't get it coached to take advantage of it?
The guy I remember us being really high on a couple of years ago because of high spin rate and hope our pitch lab could coach up was Jason Adam. Unfortunately it wasn't us who got him fixed but the Rays.
Honestly we'll see on Cuas, but that's a pickup that only helps if we do a better job with him than we did with a guy like Jason Adam.
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Here the thing though he wasn't walking guys in the minors. He had a lower BB% in AA/AAA than Effross. His Location+ is 96. So it isn't pinpoint control, but it isn't bad either. Just for JR, Jason Adam has a 94 in Location+ this year and 98+ last year. Effross was 104 with the Cubs.
Cuas isn't a 1/1 for Effross. It is a similar release point, the pure stuff for Cuas is better on his 4 seam, Slider while Efforss has better location and more pitches. Getting him for multiple years for a guy that doesn't fit is a good trade. The Royals pitching development is horrible, and while the Cubs aren't perfect they are better than KC.
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We have another trade...
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
Cubs and Rays make a small deal according to sources: Adrian Sampson, Manny Rodríguez and IFA money go to the Rays for minor-league pitcher Josh Roberson.
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Craig will be disappointed.
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Seems weird to give up IFA money in the deal for someone like this.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robers000jos
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Perhaps the Rays are taking on Sampson's salary.
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Seems weird to give up IFA money in the deal for someone like this.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robers000jos
It is for the current class that expires in January, so unless somebody pops up they likely aren't spending it.
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I’ve seen rumors on Twitter that the Cubs are trying to trade for a former Cubs LHP—either Brooks Raley or Andrew Chafin.
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Maybe Rich Hill!!!!!
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44. Josh Roberson, SIRP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2017 from UNC Wilmington (MIA)
Age 26.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 40/45 40/45 90-93 / 95
The Player to Be Named Later Miami sent to Tampa Bay for Louis Head, Roberson has an explosive upper-90s fastball and a hard slider with variable shape and quality, at times breaking straight down and at times looking more like a cutter. It’s even possible there are two distinct breaking balls here, but Roberson is so wild that this write-up assumes it is just one breaking ball that he releases inconsistently. It’s slam dunk big league stuff undercut by 20-grade command, and Roberson has walked nearly a batter per inning throughout his career. At this age, things aren’t expected to suddenly “click” from a control standpoint, but Roberson’s stuff is still that of a lightning-in-a-bottle up/down type.
JR is going to love him. I think this more about dropping Sampson 40 man spot and clearing is salary to probably stay below the luxury tax.
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Why would the D-backs trade Chafin?
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Sounds like a guy destined for the lab.
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I think this more about dropping Sampson 40 man spot and clearing is salary to probably stay below the luxury tax.
Sampson had already been de-rostered.
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Why would the D-backs trade Chafin?
Not sure. Heyman is the main guy reporting it, so it might just be some GM’s negotiating ploy.
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Maybe Rich Hill!!!!!
Traded to the Padres
Sampson had already been de-rostered.
Salary dump then. It is fun to be a small market team.
Hand got traded to the Braves so marginal lefty relievers seem to be moving now.
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Sampson's salary was only $1.9. Trading Manny to free $0.6 remaining suggests Hoyer is wanting to add. I wonder if he's got somebody specific that was just over the line, and <$0.6 makes it possible? Or if he's trying to clear an extra $0.6 just in case?
My understanding was that Cubs were ~$5 under.
-Given 1/3 of season is left, guys with season-salaries of <$15M would fit.
-By adding $2 from Sampson, that enables him to acquired talent with <$17 in season salary.
-Candelario $5. So that leaves Hoyer with space to acquire guys with with ≤$12M in season salaries.
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.... It’s slam dunk big league stuff undercut by 20-grade command, and Roberson has walked nearly a batter per inning throughout his career. At this age, things aren’t expected to suddenly “click” from a control standpoint, but Roberson’s stuff is still that of a lightning-in-a-bottle up/down type.....
Kind of a shame, Rodriguez is finally healthy and settled in, all the years of D+D perhaps finally reaching fruit. He has been K/BB great the last two months. Still the anti-HR guy he's always been. Nice pickup for Tampa, and nice for Rodriguez to get a shot with a smart organization. Not sure it's likely, but hope he gets a shot to be on their playoff roster and give them a couple of playoff innings.
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It has been reported by North Side Bound that the Cubs have GIVEN cash to Tampa in the trade, and in exchange they have RECEIVED IFA money. No mention of how much of either, but presumably, the cash will count against this year's luxury tax limit.
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Kind of a shame, Rodriguez is finally healthy and settled in, all the years of D+D perhaps finally reaching fruit. He has been K/BB great the last two months. Still the anti-HR guy he's always been. Nice pickup for Tampa, and nice for Rodriguez to get a shot with a smart organization. Not sure it's likely, but hope he gets a shot to be on their playoff roster and give them a couple of playoff innings.
Roberson has apparently been pretty good since he got back from the Rays development camp during the season.
It has been reported by North Side Bound that the Cubs have GIVEN cash to Tampa in the trade, and in exchange they have RECEIVED IFA money. No mention of how much of either, but presumably, the cash will count against this year's luxury tax limit.
Unless somebody really decent just popped up, IFA money is pretty useless at this point. The cash would cover Sampson's salary and not be added to the luxury tax.
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Given the inconsistencies of the report, and the oddity of the trade itself, I'm kind of hesitate to be confident about any of the nuanced details.
Blue, who reported that the IFA cash was from this year's cycle as opposed to next year? Maybe it is for the next class, and the Cubs want some?
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Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
·
32s
Source: The Chicago Cubs are planning to remove Trey Mancini from the roster. Couldn't immediately tell if that was release or DFA. Will work to find out.
Given the inconsistencies of the report, and the oddity of the trade itself, I'm kind of hesitate to be confident about any of the nuanced details.
Blue, who reported that the IFA cash was from this year's cycle as opposed to next year? Maybe it is for the next class, and the Cubs want some?
Unless rules have changed you can only trade IFA money from the current cycle. The Cubs could very well have somebody in mind.
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Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
·
32s
Source: The Chicago Cubs are planning to remove Trey Mancini from the roster. Couldn't immediately tell if that was release or DFA. Will work to find out.
At least Hoyer is admitting his mistake here, but that contract was definitely a whiff.
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Mancini just seems to be someone who struggles with sporadic playing time.
I’d bet he would have better numbers with regular PT…
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Roberson has apparently been pretty good since he got back from the Rays development camp during the season.
Unless somebody really decent just popped up, IFA money is pretty useless at this point. The cash would cover Sampson's salary and not be added to the luxury tax.
True, but someone was calculating this year's salary in light of the trade of Sampson, and I believe deducted the remaining portion of his salary. If the Cubs paid Tampa, I believe it will cancel this deduction out.
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Mancini just seems to be someone who struggles with sporadic playing time.
I’d bet he would have better numbers with regular PT…
I hate the timing. If they had released him a month ago, he could have gotten another job.
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I've been hoping for one decent SP and LH reliever.
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Mancini just seems to be someone who struggles with sporadic playing time.
I’d bet he would have better numbers with regular PT…
Or he just sucks. He got 230 PAs in the first half and did nothing with them. .710 OPS in 587 PAs last season.
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Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
·
2m
Heard the same from a source. Will get more details once clubhouse opens shortly, but it seems like Trey Mancini is no longer with the Cubs.
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Guess that means Candelario at 1B against lefties and playing time at 3B for Madrigal.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
·
40m
Jeimer Candelario will play 1b on a regular basis with the Cubs, per David Ross.
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Does Suzuki have helpful splits versus LHP? Would platoon usage help him?
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No reliever? Interesting.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
·
40m
Jeimer Candelario will play 1b on a regular basis with the Cubs, per David Ross.
Exact quote from Meghan Montemurro:
Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Jeimer Candelario will get a “significant amount” of playing time at 1B, Ross says.
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So I guess we're officially done?
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Deadline is CDT?
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It was a very fine line to walk. To give away enough to hurt us in future years, while not getting enough to help this year.
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Jesse Dougherty [Wash Post]
@dougherty_jesse
A note on the Jeimer Candelario trade: The Nationals are paying down his remaining salary to the league minimum, meaning the Cubs are only on the hook for a vet minimum salary pro-rated for the final two months of the year.
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It seems kind of odd to give up two meaningful prospects for Candelario and then do nothing to seriously improve the bullpen, which is clearly a weakness. Are you in or out? I disagree with buying any rentals and I still would have traded Bellinger and Stroman, but if you’re going to go for it, you know - go for it?
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Also odd that they are going to use Jeimrr at 1B when most people were worried about 3B. Also it seemed the Belli at first Tauchman in CF COMBO was working
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Candelario playing 1B (against a righty) because Suzuki sitting tonight.
Remains to be seen how often that happens.
Guessing that Suzuki sitting is either just a day off or sporadic.
Candelario starting at 1B against lefties would seem to meet Ross comment that Candelario will get “significant” playing time at 1B.
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It seems kind of odd to give up two meaningful prospects for Candelario and then do nothing to seriously improve the bullpen, which is clearly a weakness. Are you in or out? I disagree with buying any rentals and I still would have traded Bellinger and Stroman, but if you’re going to go for it, you know - go for it?
I like it. We're a long shot, so I'm glad to not be selling the farm for a long shot. I'm fine with keeping Bellinger and trying to resign him. Unlike DaveP, I believe that resign is much more likely for guys you keep.
I also think that *IF* Candelario plays well for us, he could make sense as a re-sign. Obviously should have signed him instead of Mancini in the first place.
Trading Manny Rodriguez was dumb of course!
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I like it. We're a long shot, so I'm glad to not be selling the farm for a long shot. I'm fine with keeping Bellinger and trying to resign him. Unlike DaveP, I believe that resign is much more likely for guys you keep.
I also think that *IF* Candelario plays well for us, he could make sense as a re-sign. Obviously should have signed him instead of Mancini in the first place.
Trading Manny Rodriguez was dumb of course!
Craig, the problem is there really isn’t much actual evidence that keeping guys rather than trading them makes it easier to re-sign them (and it’s not hard to check).
As a switch-hitter who plays two positions we don’t have locked down, Candelario certainly makes sense as a multi-year option. I don’t think he makes as much sense as a rental for a team that’s pretty clearly not good enough to seriously contend. Jed was trying to thread the needle here, and time will tell whether he managed it.
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I like it. We're a long shot, so I'm glad to not be selling the farm for a long shot. I'm fine with keeping Bellinger and trying to resign him. Unlike DaveP, I believe that resign is much more likely for guys you keep.
Actually, I think it depends upon the player, and how much he is in demand in free agency. I personally think that the Cubs have a much better chance of signing Candelario now that they traded for him. But for someone like Bellinger, who will have the entire MLB to choose from, and having an agent that it famous for "going with the high bidder" I doubt that keeping him will make any noticeable difference.
And I agree. Trading Rodriguez for who we got in return was dumb.
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What would you offer Candy to get him to sign an extension now - and what would it take? Who says no at 3/$48?
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All that I’ve seen makes me think this was all about the new app that was launched. Why keep Stroman & Bellinger and leave your bullpen a mess?
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What would you offer Candy to get him to sign an extension now - and what would it take? Who says no at 3/$48?
I like Candelario, but I think I have to say no to that. $36/3.
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12 million per year seems reasonable. I certainly wouldn't go more than three years.
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The Cubs didn’t probably give up anything that will cripple them in the future. If if the guys that were traded turn into something they likely wouldn’t do it with the Cubs because they are behind too many other guys.
Candalario makes fans feel good and the team is trying to win. Tickets and subscriptions to the Marquee app will be sold and Ricketts will be happy.
The Cubs picked a lane, if they want to be a World Series contender in the future they need to sign both Bellinger and Ohtani. Ricketts either spends like Cohen or this team remains mediocre.
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The Cubs picked a lane, if they want to be a World Series contender in the future they need to sign both Bellinger and Ohtani. Ricketts either spends like Cohen or this team remains mediocre.
Wow! Not only would the Cubs need to sign Bellinger but Ohtani? High bar.
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The Cubs didn’t probably give up anything that will cripple them in the future. If if the guys that were traded turn into something they likely wouldn’t do it with the Cubs because they are behind too many other guys.
Candalario makes fans feel good and the team is trying to win. Tickets and subscriptions to the Marquee app will be sold and Ricketts will be happy.
The Cubs picked a lane, if they want to be a World Series contender in the future they need to sign both Bellinger and Ohtani. Ricketts either spends like Cohen or this team remains mediocre.
None of the trades this week will cripple the Cubs.
Pitchers are never behind too many others. With a thirteen man staff, you can always make room for someone that is performing well in the high minors. You can always park them in the bullpen until things get sorted out. Who would have thought in 2017 that the pitcher in the Cubs system to lead the league in ERA today would be Steele?
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….And I agree. Trading Rodriguez for who we got in return was dumb.
Rodriguez would have been a 6-year minor league free agent after this season. Cubs seemed to have no interest in rostering him, so he’s gone after this season in any case.
Maybe that’s a scouting mistake, I don’t know. For me, not crazy about him.
Indeed, ALL the guys in this deal minor league free agents unless rostered. So, for Cubs, deal just about saving money on the Sampson contract.
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Wow! Not only would the Cubs need to sign Bellinger but Ohtani? High bar.
Agree. I hope we can resign Belli, but Ohtani? Ohtani would only come here if you can find enough crap with which to blackmail his ass.
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Ok, no Ohtani they just need a Bellinger, an impact bat and an ace. Easier?
Bellinger alone in the off season doesn’t improve the Cubs, it just holds serve. The offense needs another bat, especially if you are going to punt offense at catcher.
The rotation needs strike outs. If you have an ace, Steele, FA, Taillion, Hendricks that rotation works in the playoffs.
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We should just give Bellinger a signed contract, and have him fill in the amount.
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How do you trust Bellinger to not fall off another cliff? If I’m Cody, I stay in Chicago bc I’ve got a good thing going BUT I would never break the bank for a dude who has so many valleys.
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Chicago just demonstrated premature elevation. They needed to sell high on Belly & Stroman and start being serious next year. I see this as a missed opportunity. You never know what can happen but you can guess …and a mediocre team at the half way point will probably remain mediocre.
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Well, they already missed the chance to sell high on Stroman.
If nothing else, if they let Bellinger walk now Jed will be under enormous pressure to sign another big name next winter. Whether that’s good or bad I’m not sure, especially given the weak FA class.
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Did Lively sleep with Bell’s wife or something?
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Did Lively sleep with Bell’s wife or something?
Dave23 has Lively in his money league and probably would know about that kind of thing.
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In the words of Albert Einstein…”I find that I have nothing to say.”
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Craig, the problem is there really isn’t much actual evidence that keeping guys rather than trading them makes it easier to re-sign them (and it’s not hard to check).....
I've never seen any data on this, but I expect the data would say otherwise. Just top-of-my-head, how many guys have been traded away but then resigned back with the trading team? Very few. Aroldis Chapman did that, 7 years ago. And didn't the Cubs maybe re-sign Jason Hammell that way? I'm just thinking it's very rare.
Framed differently: every year there are many dozens of players who become free agents. A very significant fraction resign with their team.
I would hypothesize that *IF* a study was done, we'd see the re-sign-with-team percentage much higher for guys that are not traded.
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What would you offer Candy to get him to sign an extension now - and what would it take? Who says no at 3/$48?
Too much for me. I don't think he's that high-level. He's a career 102 OPS+ guy. Never had a $6M year.
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The pitcher they got from KC, is he being placed on the Cubs roster? Or is he going to Iowa?
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The pitcher they got from KC, is he being placed on the Cubs roster? Or is he going to Iowa?
He’s on the 40-man but until he physically reports somewhere (soon), Cubs don’t have to make an official active roster move. Maybe on Wednesday?
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Cubs are now 5th in mlb in runs scored. Brewers were 24th coming into tonight.
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He’s on the 40-man but until he physically reports somewhere (soon), Cubs don’t have to make an official active roster move. Maybe on Wednesday?
Thanks. What would you guess, Iowa or Chicago? I was wondering tonight whether Kay was getting a token appearance before getting sent back?
Poor Kay, he only pitched 5.2 innings in all of July, and 4.2 in June from June 13 on. I know he's lefty, but Ross doesn't trust him situationally anyway, and I don't think his lefty splits are great.
I'd be fine to just roll with Leiter and an all-righty pen.
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Yeah, kinda thought maybe Hoyer would acquire a lefty pen guy.
Reds traded for Sam Moll and A’s got a guy back pretty similar to Kohl Franklin profile. Maybe Hoyer thought guy like that not worth the trade price.
Kay threw 32 pitches tonight and was bad. So, guessing he might be going to Iowa on Wednesday?
By my count, Cubs 40-man is at 39, including Cuas. Most likely bullpen move, if there is one, would seem to be him.
Nobody jumps out from Iowa bullpen to take a major league spot on the 40 and active roster. Cam Sanders blew up tonight. Maybe Bailey Horn? Had a pretty good July but walks still an issue. Maybe a couple more good outings from Keegan Thompson puts him in picture? Return of Rucker at some point? He’s still on the 40.
Or, Cubs might stay at 39 for the eventual return of Boxberger (or Burdi) from the 60-day. Think I read both are doing something baseball-related now.
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By the way, I'm not Hoyer's biggest fan. Don't think his scouting choices have been all that good.
But I am impressed that he made the decision on Mancini. It's easy to give a bad choice too much time to work out. Impressed that he acknowledged that it didn't work out and closed the book, rather than wasting a roster spot and more AB's.
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......Nobody jumps out from Iowa bullpen to take a major league spot on the 40 and active roster. Cam Sanders blew up tonight. Maybe Bailey Horn? Had a pretty good July but walks still an issue. Maybe a couple more good outings from Keegan Thompson puts him in picture? Return of Rucker at some point? He’s still on the 40....
Heh heh, nobody jumps out now that Manny Rodriguez has been sent away!!! :):):)
But, hopefully they don't need anybody for a while if Cuas is OK, and if health stays OK.
I'd imagine Keegan might perhaps get back if he's healthy and could stack a couple of good outings.
Killian has also kind of stabilized for a bit. I wonder if he might get another call-up if they needed an innings-eater for a day or two? Over last 5 starts, only 6BB and 1 HR.
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Rogers stated that the Cubs could have gotten Jasson Dominguez plus maybe something from the Yankees for Bellinger.
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Dominguez has been pretty bad in Double-A this year, FWIW.
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As an aside, I'm really tired of seeing hitters being developed as high walk, super high K players, which is basically what Dominguez has been. Baseball games may be quicker, but it's not going to get back into the national sports discussion in the way football and basketball are unless hitters actually start hitting again. Just watching the All-Star Game this year, it just struck me just how many guys were in that game who would have been considered pretty average or mediocre hitters 20-25 years ago (Yeah I'm becoming that old fogey of a fan I guess.).
So many promising players are getting messed up with garbage three true outcomes approaches at the plate.
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Rogers stated that the Cubs could have gotten Jasson Dominguez plus maybe something from the Yankees for Bellinger.
Could have if Yankees said yes. But, Rogers not saying whether Yankees actually offered Dominguez. Said “they have a really good prospect, Jasson Dominguez, I think he may have even been thrown in a deal.”
May have, maybe.
Think it’s possible but seems like Rogers speculating rather than reporting.
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Dominguez has been pretty bad in Double-A this year, FWIW.
20 year old in AA that is above league average in production and with what prospects where getting traded that is probably pretty close to class of prospect that Bellinger would have brought back.
As an aside, I'm really tired of seeing hitters being developed as high walk, super high K players, which is basically what Dominguez has been. Baseball games may be quicker, but it's not going to get back into the national sports discussion in the way football and basketball are unless hitters actually start hitting again. Just watching the All-Star Game this year, it just struck me just how many guys were in that game who would have been considered pretty average or mediocre hitters 20-25 years ago (Yeah I'm becoming that old fogey of a fan I guess.).
So many promising players are getting messed up with garbage three true outcomes approaches at the plate.
His K% is 26.6%. He isn't a three true outcome guy like Owen Cassie who is at 32.4%. Dominguez isn't my favorite prospect, but when your talking about getting a 20 year top 50 prospect for a rental that would have nice.
Hoyer clearly has a man crush on Bellinger. If you watch his press conference talking about him it is a lot different that him talking about Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Willson.
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Stroman to the IL.
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Shocker.
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Who knows if we really could have gotten Dominguez for Bellinger. But if so sure, that would have been a great return. If you believe in Dominguez as a CF he has a real chance to be an impact player. Struggling a bit this season (with some bad luck involved) but barely 20 on opening day and spending the full year at AA.
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ArizonaPhil
"Given what the Cubs gave up to get Jeimer Candelario (Herz and Made), I strongly suspect that the Cubs will offer a Candelario a contract extension.
Candelario is not a Boras client, so signing him to an extension before he hits free-agency is very possible."
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That may suggest he’ll be willing to spend pretty aggressively? Which we’d like, right? I agree, Jed seems to appreciate him a lot. I don’t think Jed will be quick to drop out. Bellinger has been such a low K guy. Responding to blues thought that Jed gushes more about Bellinger than Baez and Contreras and bryant
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
RHP José Cuas has been added to the roster.
(takes Stroman roster slot)
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Sharma:
Seiya Suzuki’s off day on Tuesday shouldn’t be read as anything more than a break to clear his mind as he searches for his rhythm at the plate. He remains the team’s everyday right fielder.
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That may suggest he’ll be willing to spend pretty aggressively? Which we’d like, right? I agree, Jed seems to appreciate him a lot. I don’t think Jed will be quick to drop out. Bellinger has been such a low K guy. Responding to blues thought that Jed gushes more about Bellinger than Baez and Contreras and bryant
Jed was pretty explicit about being able to cross over lux tax threshold, and yet was very careful not to do so at this deadline. He plays it close to the vest, so it says something when he goes out of his way to make something like that explicit.
Meanwhile, a few of the national-lvl reporters are saying they believe the Cubs will make a sincere run at Ohtani. Not that we’re likely to get him, but the two bits of commentary and action line up intriguingly…
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That may suggest he’ll be willing to spend pretty aggressively? Which we’d like, right? I agree, Jed seems to appreciate him a lot. I don’t think Jed will be quick to drop out. Bellinger has been such a low K guy. Responding to blues thought that Jed gushes more about Bellinger than Baez and Contreras and bryant
I think it means the Cubs will make a pretty legitimate run at him. I think if they can get him, then they make a run at Ohtani. It is ip the only way to move the Cubs into discussion of the better teams and beyond the NL Central tier of bad.
It is a small window to get competitive, where the talent on the farm would be amazing to supplement the major league team. Jed is usually impossible to read and his Bellinger crush seems to be orders of magnitude higher than what it was for Rizzo.
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Jed is usually impossible to read and his Bellinger crush seems to be orders of magnitude higher than what it was for Rizzo.
Hoyer was part of the team at Boston that drafted and signed Rizzo. He they went to San Diego where he was part of the team that traded for Rizzo. He then joined the Cubs, and was part of the team that traded for Rizzo. Hard to see a lack of crush there.
But good as Rizzo was/is, Bellinger at his peak, as a gold glove center fielder, is magnitudes better than Rizzo at his peak, as a gold glove first baseman. A much better hitter at a much more valuable position. If Hoyer didn't value Bellinger more, you would have to question his judgement.
But I think that Bellinger will be looking for a longer contract than the Cubs are willing to go. I hope not.
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"Going for it", if that's the right way to describe Hoyer's approach, and having a run for the postseason would likely increase Bellinger's interest in remaining a Cub one would think.
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…But good as Rizzo was/is, Bellinger at his peak, as a gold glove center fielder, is magnitudes better than Rizzo at his peak, as a gold glove first baseman. A much better hitter at a much more valuable position. If Hoyer didn't value Bellinger more, you would have to question his judgement….
Rizzo at his peak years in 2014, 2015, 2016 was just as good and valuable as Bellinger is now.
Bellinger has wRC+ of 142 and OPS+ of 142 too. Has 3.2 bWAR, which we can probably pro-rate to 5.5-5.8 for full season.
Rizzo had wRC+ of 155, 145, 145 and OPS+ of 152, 146, 143. Had bWAR of 5.6, 6.4, 5.8.
Bellinger probably will be playing 1B a whole lot rest of the way too. His one gold glove was in 2019 when he played mostly RF, not CF. Rizzo, of course, was a terrific 1B defender with 4 gold gloves.
2014, 2015, 2016 is awhile ago and maybe we forget how terrific Rizzo was for Cubs in his peak seasons.
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Cubs have scored 103 more runs than Brewers this season.
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From Twitter:
"Cuban RHP Darian Rivero (17) officially signs with the Chicago Cubs.
FB: 92-93 MPH
Good breaking ball pitches"
Looks like Jed put the IFA money to use.
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Tauchman OPS is now .806.
Kinda all of a sudden Cubs three poor offensive positions, taken together, look pretty good.
1B with Bellinger (Tauchman in CF vs. righties), Candelario at 3B, Morel at DH.
If Happ and Suzuki pick up the power game, this club could average 18 runs scored per game against poor defensive clubs.
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Rizzo at his peak years in 2014, 2015, 2016 was just as good and valuable as Bellinger is now.....
yes. Prime Rizzo was fabulous. But 20-21 Rizzo wasn't quite that good. .755 and .792 OPS, BA of .222 and .248, slug .414 and .446, this wasn't the guy who slugged >.500 from 14-17. And he'd had some back problems. This year his OPS is .706, better than Mancini but less than Suzuki. Not sure Hoyer was wrong to not have valued Rizzo entering 2021 FA the way he's probably valuing Bellinger now.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-kick-off-trade-deadline-day-with-a-minor-move-per-reports/
More conformation that the Cubs really did give the IFA money in the Sampson-Martinez trade.
They must like Roberson, I guess.
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If Candelario can sustain his .889 BA and 2.122 OPS I think we have a shot at this.
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-kick-off-trade-deadline-day-with-a-minor-move-per-reports/
More conformation that the Cubs really did give the IFA money in the Sampson-Martinez trade.
They must like Roberson, I guess.
I was listening to a prospect podcast for the Cubs and they mentioned that it might have been the neither of the Cubs guys where going to sign successor contracts with the Cubs and Roberson might not have the the Rays so they just swapped them to see if something might click in a new org. The IFA money isn't really a big deal, because if the Cubs don't have a target in mind for it they only have 3 more months to spend it.
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Questions:
How long has Stroman been hurt and the Cubs kept quiet so as to not reduce his trade value?
Can Stroman's hip issue be resolved in such a short time?
And the biggest question that America wants to know: why does Morel wear eye black when he's DHing?
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Questions:
How long has Stroman been hurt and the Cubs kept quiet so as to not reduce his trade value?
Can Stroman's hip issue be resolved in such a short time?
And the biggest question that America wants to know: why does Morel wear eye black when he's DHing?
1) Probably or he didn't mention it to the trainers
2) Depends on the cause of the pain
3) To look cool... (It might help with contrast and help with hitting)
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I heard Morel interviewed on MLB Tonight (on the radio last night). Morel had the guys on the show in stitches.
First, he brought a translator, but conducted the interview w/o his translator (in pretty darned good English). The MLB guys jokingly got the translator involved, too, and they all (including Morel) had a good-natured laugh about the translator's lack of involvement.
Then, the question about the eye black was asked of Morel...and Curt's hunch is mostly correct...Morel said he saw some kids wearing it and just thought he'd join them in the fun! The MLB guys went wild!
Morel sure does seem like a terrific young player and person! Sure hope the Cubs coach him up to be more than a DH (a "core" player) by 2024.
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Well, we all saw this coming.
It was the first time since at least 1901 that the Cubs scored 16 runs in back-to-back games.
The 36 runs between Tuesday and Wednesday marks the highest total for a Cubs offense in a 2-game span since June 29-30, 1897 when they scored 43 in back-to-back games.
The 12 homers between Tuesday and Wednesday is the most in a 2-game span in franchise history (since at least 1901).
...
The Cubs offense has been so locked in, they’ve scored over 40 more runs than any other MLB team since the All-Star Break
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/behind-a-relentless-lineup-cubs-emphatically-state-their-case-to-first-place-reds/
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https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/june-29-1897-the-chicago-colts-record-romp-for-36-runs/
Didn't know the home team could choose to bat first - wonder when that rule changed!
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https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/june-29-1897-the-chicago-colts-record-romp-for-36-runs/
Didn't know the home team could choose to bat first - wonder when that rule changed!
Davep was the oldest batboy in the league that year. 71 or 72, I think.
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Interesting article on Cody Bellinger. Here are some excerpts:
Bellinger is a looming presence, especially since returning from his left knee injury June 15. He is one of four players in Major League Baseball this season with at least 15 home runs, 14 stolen bases and a .300 average, joining the Atlanta Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr., Los Angeles Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman and Houston Astros’ Kyle Tucker.
...
A lot of it has been his bat plane and how long he’s on the plane of the pitch,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly told the Tribune on Wednesday. “What that’s done is allow him to handle the ball at the top of the zone a little bit better, especially that four-seam fastball, and a lot of those balls that run up and away, he’s able to get enough barrel on it to foul it off and we’ve even seen him shoot it to the left side.”
"Bellinger's “step in the bucket” natural movement toward second base with his right front leg can create problems for hitters if they’re out of whack and open up too much. But his consistent ability to keep his chest and shoulders square to the pitcher creates a lot of torque and plate coverage with his swing.
“That’s where we see those balls that end up in the inner part of the zone that are a little bit up, he’s stored so much energy that it released like a whip,” Kelly said. “But him staying square a little bit longer allows him to shoot the ball the other way, so it’s the perfect mix.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger-20230803-jbvizmjq5bbgrdpx3ayjczl7bi-story.html?lctg=E4B3A4BF547E25A4F491548395&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fsports%2fcubs%2fct-chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger-20230803-jbvizmjq5bbgrdpx3ayjczl7bi-story.html&utm_campaign=Dont-Miss-News-and-Sports&utm_content=alert
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@OptaSTATS
The @Cubs have scored 150 runs in their first 20 games since the All-Star break, tied for the second most since the All-Star Break first took place in 1933, behind the California Angels with 161 in 1995.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
The Cubs are the 1st team to have 10 extra base hits and 5 HR in consecutive games in MLB history.
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This all only confirms our expectation that the Cubs would be an offensive juggernaut this season.
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Merryweather is a keeper.
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Bellinger’s price tag just keeps going up…Boras must be loving this…
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Merryweather is a keeper.
He, Leiter Jr., and Alzolay all under control (arb) through the 2026 season.
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What rp's are at Iowa who can be brought up quickly? Boxberger?
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Brown, Jensen, Killian, Rucker, and Thompson are at least all on the 40 man.
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Thompson...there's a guy we need to find himself again! Rucker could help tomorrow if needed. Kay and/or Palencia could go down.
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Eligible to return on Fri Aug 11 - 60-day IL.
Latest News
Jul 27, 2023 3:54 PM CDT
Boxberger (forearm) is set to throw another bullpen session Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
Analysis
Boxberger could advance to live batting practice or perhaps even a minor-league rehab assignment if Friday's workout goes smoothly. He originally landed on the injured list in mid-May because of a right forearm strain and then suffered a setback in late June. The veteran reliever is trending toward returning to the Cubs' bullpen around mid-August.
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I'm not high on Boxberger...just wondering how long before he might resurface.
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Very nice article on Dansby Swanson with lots of quotes by his former Atlanta Braves teammates.
https://theathletic.com/4752393/2023/08/05/braves-cubs-dansby-swanson-winner/
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Killian is up. Kay sent down
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I know that this probably is the kiss of death, but after the upcoming series with Mets and Jays, Cubs have 12 straight games with WSox, Royals, Tigers, Pirates.
So, a chance in those 12 games to push away from .500 to a greater extent than now.
A chance.
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Yes, Reb, a "chance" to take off in those 12 games against sub-par opponents.
Of course, as you also rightfully say, baseball is unpredictable! SO unpredictable!
Let's hope Cubs keep playing really well the rest of the way (and much better than either the Brewers or Reds)!
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If we continue to play solid ball, it really doesn't matter so much who we play. And if we don't play solid ball, it also doesn't matter much who we play.
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Sharma has a fine column on the Cubs becoming one of the best offensive teams in the NL. I know that is a strange characterization, but just read the column.
http://bbf.createaforum.com/index.php?action=post;topic=612.2730;last_msg=477632
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Baseball Reference's predictions have the Cubs winning the division by about two games over Milwaukee, and having a 77% chance of making the postseason:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-playoff-odds.shtml
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Bullpen depth is a problem at the moment.
Palencia threw 37 pitches in his ineffective inning of work on Monday and, for second game in a row, threw more balls than strikes. Further, his mound demeanor both these games was awful. Terrible.
Would think that Palencia has to go back to Iowa right now. But, unless Palencia goes to IL with a phantom injury, don’t believe that Rucker has yet to serve his full 15-day required sentence in Des Moines as yet. Maybe Tyler Duffy, as Cubs have an open 40-man spot. Maybe Jordan Weeks so Cubs can have a 4-man rotation in bullpen?
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Palencia has always had issues with mound composure.
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https://theathletic.com/4760826/2023/08/09/cubs-pitcher-jameson-taillon-2023-success/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Nice article on some of the mechanical tweaks Taillon has made, and how some of the analysis was applied behind some modifications. Reflects to me the level of sophistication involved.
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I think it's pretty clear the Cubs' pitching infrastructure is top notch. Remarkable job by the club to turn an area where we were one of the worst into one of the best, and in a relatively short period of time.
Relatedly, with Jensen being claimed off waivers by the Mariners, it's likely that not a single pick from our 2019 draft will make it to the majors. The subsequent departure of McLeod and overhaul of the scouting/drafting department under Kantrovitz looks like it's having similar impact/success.
I remain skeptical that Ricketts is going to approve spend levels commensurate with the Cub's valuation and revenues - there's no excuse for anything less than top 5 payroll, long-term - but have to give credit for the organizational overhaul that's happened over the past few years.
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I’d guess top ten will be routine from here out if team is winning. If we sneak into wildcard, I expect top 10 and blast past lux line next year. But I’d not assume every year top five unless we get to be really good.
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Tonight, Cubs attempting to get to five over .500. Cubs were 5 over on 4/21 when had a record of 12-7.
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Tonight, Cubs attempting to get to five over .500. Cubs were 5 over on 4/21 when had a record of 12-7.
Careful. Angelos will get you suspended over a post like that!
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Pretty good piece on why Bellinger has been so very good this season.
https://allchgo.com/2023/08/08/cubs-cody-bellinger-dangerous-hitter/
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Cubs move Drew Smyly to bullpen, will start Javier Assad on Friday in Toronto--ESPN
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Cubs move Drew Smyly to bullpen, will start Javier Assad on Friday in Toronto--ESPN
Wow. I like the decision.
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Wow. I like the decision.
As long as they don't actually use him there? Just kidding, but hasn't he had a problem in the first inning of games he's started.
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A number of you may have gotten this trivia question in an email today. What Cub holds the record for the most hits in Rogers Centre in Toronto?
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A number of you may have gotten this trivia question in an email today. What Cub holds the record for the most hits in Rogers Centre in Toronto?
I didn't see any guesses but the answer is Jim Edmonds. Thought that was funny.
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I didn't see any guesses but the answer is Jim Edmonds. Thought that was funny.
On the subject of Jim Edmonds, why is he not in the Hall of Fame?
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Maybe all the unnecessary dives for catches caught up with HIM?
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Maybe all the unnecessary dives for catches caught up with HIM?
Try not to be a dope. No offense to you personally.
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On the subject of Jim Edmonds, why is he not in the Hall of Fame?
Same reason as Kenny Lofton and probably a few others--since MLB and the Hall of Fame never took on any kind of leadership about what to do for steroids guys, the huge backlog on the ballot knocked him off the ballot after one year.
If he hit the ballot now, I think he'd probably get about 15-20% in his first year, then a few baseball writers would take up his cause and he'd eventually get in like Larry Walker did.
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Things Can Change Fast Department
On July 20—just over three weeks ago (23 days)—Cubs were 8 1/2 games behind DBacks in Wild Card race. Today, Cubs are 3 games ahead of DBacks. 11 1/2 games pickup in 3 weeks+
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https://theathletic.com/4771306/2023/08/13/cubs-clutch-hitting-jose-cuas/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&access_token=212065&redirected=1
For pay, but has some interesting discussion about Cuas's stuff, for those who can access it. Cuas seems like an interesting possibility, and with lots of years of control, *IF* he settles in, he could be a valuable guy.
Also some notes on Smyly. Says lefties have killed his cutter, after years in which his cutter worked really well versus lefties.
Also says the Stroman will be back this week.
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https://theathletic.com/4780038/2023/08/16/cubs-marcus-stroman-latest-setback/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Stroman had been projected to come off DL and start tonight's game.
That's not happening, he now has a rib injury and will not be back.
He went to DL with reportedly a hip injury.
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Rib cartilage fracture for Stroman, no timeline for his return.
So what are the odds he still opts out at this point?
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Rib cartilage fracture for Stroman, no timeline for his return.
So what are the odds he still opts out at this point?
Zero?
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This could work out in the Cubs favor. They'll obviously miss him this season, but they should be in a stronger position to compete next season. Having Stroman in the fold would make it much easier to put together a decent rotation in 2024. Of course, he might decide to opt out regardless.
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Zero?
I'd say unlikely. but he may still believe his first half would get him a bigger deal. More like 15-20% than zero.
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Way, way too little information at this point to judge whether this injury will have any impact on Stroman’s decision.
Will he be unable to get a two-year deal instead of the one-year deal in his pocket?
Who knows but seems unlikely the gravity of this injury is so severe that nobody wants to give him a year beyond 2024.
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This could work out in the Cubs favor. They'll obviously miss him this season, but they should be in a stronger position to compete next season. Having Stroman in the fold would make it much easier to put together a decent rotation in 2024. Of course, he might decide to opt out regardless.
Stroman is not a key for next year. Bellinger is. If we don't get him re-signed, it is doubtful that we can compete at this year's level.
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The issue, obviously, is not Stroman’s injury itself but the fact that it prevents him from going out and pitching like he did in the first half down the stretch. If he’s basically done for the year he’s going into FA on the back of a pretty awful stretch of results. If he had been able to come back and reproduce his early results in a pennant race, he might have changed the dynamic a little.
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Rib cartilage, aren't there widely variant levels of that? Is the presumption this is season-ending?
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Rib cartilage, aren't there widely variant levels of that? Is the presumption this is season-ending?
I certainly don’t presume it (thus, the “if”). But he’s shut down indefinitely and there’s basically a month and a week left of the season. If he’s able to come back he’ll have been out long enough to where he has to build his pitch count back up. If he does come back it’s hard to imagine it’s for more than a start or two.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Fangraphs thinks the Cubs will go 20-22 with a -5 run differential the rest of the way. Do they know something we don't?
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https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Fangraphs thinks the Cubs will go 20-22 with a -5 run differential the rest of the way. Do they know something we don't?
We have the 4th-weakest remaining SoS in baseball (playing in the NL Central doesn't hurt), so that would be a disappointing finish to say the least.
If they're right, it's likely to be the bullpen that does it. Ross is basically only using 4 guys even in games we're losing if they're close, and it's hard to imagine they're going to hold up without help.
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...If they're right, it's likely to be the bullpen that does it. Ross is basically only using 4 guys even in games we're losing if they're close, and it's hard to imagine they're going to hold up without help.
I agree that the bullpen is vulnerable, deeg.
I think the starting rotation is way more likely to be a failure-source. Steele-Taillon-Hendricks-Assad-Smyly. Seems lately like *if* you hypothetically get out of the 5th inning having allowed "only" 3 runs, that's an above-average start lately. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that Steele is kinda running on fumes, I think he's tired. Even Steele has been giving up a HR every game these days. It shouldn't really be that rare to win a game when you score 4 runs, and last night we did.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs
Link pops up games since July 14.
*Over that 33-day stretch, they've gone 20-11
*Of those 20 wins, in only 4 have they won without scoring 5 or more runs. Two 3-2 games (in St. Louis last month and a Taillon game in New York) and two 4-3 wins (last night, and vs St Louis last month in a Steele start). So usually needing 5 or more to win.
*Of their 11 losses over that span, they lost 4 despite scoring 3 or 4 runs; and lost three more where they scored 5.
Seems to me that the starters just putting a lot of pressure on the offense and the bullpen. Could use a few starts where the starter got through 6 with 0-1-2 runs. Those have been very rare.
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Well the two are obviously connected - the struggles of the rotation put even more stress on the 4-man bullpen.
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Rib cartilage, aren't there widely variant levels of that? Is the presumption this is season-ending?
I'd think a return is pretty unlikely. Maybe with a deep playoff run he could come back in a relief role with nearly perfect healing. If it is just a fractured rib the is probably 6-8 weeks before he is pain free and can ramp up activity. The way it is worded though makes it sound like it is more severe than just a rib fracture and that would be closer to 12 weeks before he is able to ramp up activity.
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Well the two are obviously connected - the struggles of the rotation put even more stress on the 4-man bullpen.
Kinda yes. That said, we've gone 20-11 over the last 34 days. Cuas didn't help himself yesterday, but he's gotten some use-when-winning opportunity.
The more frequently the starter gets blown out, the less occasion for use-when-winning guys. So imagine we hypothetically went 18-12 the next month; would use-when-winning relievers be exhausted covering 18 wins in a month? Maybe kinda, but not sure.
It would certainly help if Cuas could cover an inning. Or Palencia.
I'd kinda love it if the starters enabled some more solid leads in the 6th inning. If we had 4-1 lead once in a while, maybe Ross could be a little more comfortable giving a 6th or 7th inning to Cuas or Palencia or Rucker or Wesneski.
I'd love it if we were winning so many games that the use-when-winning guys were overworked. Wasn't much of a problem when we were below .500. *IF* that's a concern, it's probably a good sign that we're winning a lot.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2023-turnaround-energizing-fan-base?partnerId=zh-20230818-1006376-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230818-1006376-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=zuROveDuw%2FT1odqpVNXzYJy7Ahkysw6d6UkyYUcAb34oMOAbe2icb8l1Rk2won6U&bt_ts=1692365773516
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Sounds like it's unlikely Stroman will make it back this year if they're expecting it to be 3-5 weeks before he can do anything.
Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
Breaking Cub news - Marcus Stroman said today he will be totally inactive at least a few weeks. ‘ We don’t know if this will be 3 , 4 or 5 weeks. “ I just know it hurts right now just sitting.I have some trouble catching my breath at times. ‘
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Has it been reported exactly how Stroman injured his rib?
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According to the Athletic it was during either his bullpen or fielding ground balls in Toronto.
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I think he was hugging and lifting Joey Bats.
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Without Morel's Wednesday heroics, today would have been our 4th loss in a row. The boys gotta get going.
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According to the Athletic it was during either his bullpen or fielding ground balls in Toronto.
Felt it after those activities but Athletic piece presents it as a mystery what actually caused the injury. Kind of a correlation or causation dilemma.
From The Athletic piece: “Stroman was questioned in multiple ways as to what could have possibly led to an injury that’s so rare in baseball. He said there was nothing that occurred in the weight room and he took grounders after his bullpen session like he often does in pregame and nothing odd happened during that either. “Nothing glaring, nothing crazy,” Stroman said. “I’ve been taking ground balls my whole life, that’s nothing new. Once I cooled down I went right into the trainers, I told them it was from my diaphragm. It was behind my ribs and when I would exhale I would feel it. Nobody really had an answer at that time. And we’re all just trying to process it and figure it out right now.”
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Cubs can't afford mistakes on the bases and in the field. If they tighten things up, they should be OK.
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Barnhart has been DFA'ed.
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Wow. I didn't expect that, or at this point in time. What is the timing reason for this? They are already maxed for pitchers, right? So it's not to open a spot for a fresh arm. Is Tucker hurt in some way, so this is the time to bounce him? Or with the offense struggling to outscore what our starting pitchers allow, maybe they want to get Amaya's bat more often in place of Tucker?
Actually, I'mg guessing maybe it's more Stroman? Hasn't Barnhart largely been Stroman's personal catcher, right? So Stroman done, Barnhart's primary role is gone?
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Wow. I didn't expect that, or at this point in time. What is the timing reason for this? They are already maxed for pitchers, right? So it's not to open a spot for a fresh arm. Is Tucker hurt in some way, so this is the time to bounce him? Or with the offense struggling to outscore what our starting pitchers allow, maybe they want to get Amaya's bat more often in place of Tucker?
Actually, I'mg guessing maybe it's more Stroman? Hasn't Barnhart largely been Stroman's personal catcher, right? So Stroman done, Barnhart's primary role is gone?
I agree the timing is odd. I wonder if this isn't an under the table deal and Barnhardt will end up with someone who wants him.
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I agree the timing is odd. I wonder if this isn't an under the table deal and Barnhardt will end up with someone who wants him.
Think reason for the move is kind of simple. With Barnhart on board, Cubs didn’t have an available lefty bat on the bench that can be called on to hit. Barnhart not an offensive option of course.
Today’s lineup is the regular lineup against righties, leaving a bench of Wisdom, Madrigal, Amaya, Barnhart. Can use Mastrobuoni—instead of Barnhart—off the bench and, in a pinch, gives you a spare OFer.
Think maybe also Cubs didn’t want to use a 40-man spot on Barnhart in off-season so as to protect additional guy from Rule 5.
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Barnhardt was pretty much Stroman's personal catcher.
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Smyly back in the rotation for Detroit. Not a fan of that move.
How long does the 4-man bullpen survive? And is Morel still a name you automatically write on the lineup card every day? His recent heroics aside, he's been pretty bad for the past six weeks (which makes two second half collapses in two years). There are other options - both on the big-league roster and at Iowa.
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Smyly back in the rotation for Detroit. Not a fan of that move....
You wanted Wesneski instead, I'm guessing?
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You wanted Wesneski instead, I'm guessing?
Yes, that would have been the obvious choice. Or even Wicks.
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Morel has certainly struggled in recent weeks; however, he still has a .250BA, .318 OBP, .497 SLG, .815 OPS, with 19 HRs and 12 2b in only 292 ABs - and a rather important recent walk-off!
If we were going to face top starters in upcoming days, I'd love to see the Cubs give him some days off now. Since we won't be facing many top-level starters and we don't have an obviously better DH choice (most nights), I'll hope they let him work through his issues (most nights).
Like most every other 24-year old hitter, Morel's still got issues (though he is taking more walks and seems to be controlling the zone a bit better). But even in his deep slump, he's still a very dangerous hitter who can run into a mistake and mash it. (as White Sox can attest)
I'm personally hoping Cubs continue to groom him for bigger things (whether getting several days off for a reset or playing every day) as I believe he's a rather uniquely electric talent. And he's still very young and highly likely to improve!
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Ben, the issue is whether he’s your best bet every day now, especially against RHP. Coming into today’s 0-fer he was at .690 OPS since the break, and .549 in August. His trend so far is fading down the stretch.
What are the options? Amaya could play more than once a week. Tauchman and Madrigal in the same lineup. Or call up Mervis or PCA, who are absolutely mashing at AAA. Not saying it’s a slam dunk but either platooning Morel or giving him an extended rest should at least be on the table.
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I agree with deeg, I think it's worth considering. Not sure what's best, myself. But for now, Ross should be managing Nowacrat, not Buildican. Whether starting Madrigal or Mastrobuoni or Amaya or Wisdom gives you any better shot than Morel, I don't know. But yeah, sometimes a handful of off-days to try to reset can help.
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Personally I’d like to see what Mervis could do with a second chance. Not like his offense is going to be worse than Morel’s has been lately.
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Most of us hated the signing of Hosmer, Mancini, and Barnhardt. All 3 have been DFAed.
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….How long does the 4-man bullpen survive? And is Morel still a name you automatically write on the lineup card every day? His recent heroics aside, he's been pretty bad for the past six weeks (which makes two second half collapses in two years). There are other options - both on the big-league roster and at Iowa.
Morel has been bad for 2 1/2 weeks, not six weeks.
He ended July and first couple days of August with a 10-game hitting streak, going 14-40. Morel batted .291 in July with a .790 OPS.
His slump started on August 3. Since then, Morel is 5-51.
That’s a severe slump, but it’s just over two weeks after a solid July
Have no idea if Cubs think Mervis has fixed any holes since his return to Iowa. That’s a scouting and coaching determination. I’m very curious what brass thinks of Perlaza. Is he going to be rostered after the season? Is he a candidate to be called up in September as the 28th man? If looking to fill some DH ABs in place of Morel, is Perlaza a guy? Kind of jumps out that just over 1/2 of Perlaza’s hits are for extra bases. He is a doubles machine.
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Morel out of the lineup in opener against Tigers tonight.
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A few days off to reset might really help Morel. It sure has made a positive difference for Suzuki!
It's a L O N G season!
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So, for next year: Heyward comes off the payroll. And *IF* the Cubs make the playoffs, I don't think Hoyer will prioritize staying south of the lux line, I think he'll be ready to launch past it. So, maybe resign Bellinger and Candelario, and figure that between Bellinger, PCA, and Tauchman and whomever else they pick up for possible 1b usage, that 1b/CF could get covered? Bring back essentially the same 5th-in-mlb 3rd-in-NL offense with the good defense, with PCA sooner-or-later added and a few tweaks on the boundaries?
And spend most of your payroll-jumps on pitching, pitching, and pitching?
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For me, the key is re-signing Bellinger. If we lose Candelario, that would be a shame, but Nick is holding his own at 3B, Bellinger goes to 1B, PCA to CF, Tauchman is great insurance as 4th OF. I love the kid, but Morel becomes trade bait; we just don't have a spot for him unless Ross commits to rotating him around the diamond. If we don't re-sign Bellinger, just go out and get Hosmer and Mancini again and be mediocre.
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…….with PCA sooner-or-later added and a few tweaks on the boundaries?….
Sharma/Mooney speculate at The Athletic that PCA opens 2024 season with Cubs so can get that extra draft pick if/when he wins rookie of the year. I don’t know, not typical Cubs modus operandi as seem to value extra year of control. But, who knows?
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Combined salary of Bellinger and Candelario next year will be less than combined salary of Bellinger-Heyward-Mancini this year. If payroll jumps, the jump will be to add pitching. Not sure who is available, but if you added one high-caliber rotation guy, and deepened the bullpen, that could be a plan. Imagine adding a high-end starter, and then hopefully Horton emerges, and you deepen the pen. You could have a good-offense/good-defense/good-bullpen/good-rotation team.
This is where I think competing this year is helpful. Bellinger is more interested in continuing here if we're a playoff team already with arrow up for future. Same for the rotation guy you chase.
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Sharma/Mooney speculate at The Athletic that PCA opens 2024 season with Cubs so can get that extra draft pick if/when he wins rookie of the year. I don’t know, not typical Cubs modus operandi as seem to value extra year of control. But, who knows?
Having PCA taking over center, with Bellinger every-day 1B, and Tauchman a depth option, that would provide a really strong defensive roster. I kinda love the ROY-draft-pick incentive.
I'm not sure whether PCA is really that ready. But I like the prospect-promotion incentive.
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So, for next year: Heyward comes off the payroll. And *IF* the Cubs make the playoffs, I don't think Hoyer will prioritize staying south of the lux line, I think he'll be ready to launch past it. So, maybe resign Bellinger and Candelario, and figure that between Bellinger, PCA, and Tauchman and whomever else they pick up for possible 1b usage, that 1b/CF could get covered? Bring back essentially the same 5th-in-mlb 3rd-in-NL offense with the good defense, with PCA sooner-or-later added and a few tweaks on the boundaries?
And spend most of your payroll-jumps on pitching, pitching, and pitching?
If they don't blow past the luxury tax line they aren't serious about winning, they just want to be good enough to keep fans in the stands.
There is 1 player that could address both the offense and pitching.
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With his not-so-great performance this year, I wonder if Aaron Nola could be pitching his way into a Stroman-like contract that is in Hoyer's comfort zone. He's the same age Stroman was in the 2021-22 offseason, so I wonder if he might want to lock in some money but still have the ability to go back out to the market in a year or two.
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At least Nola can strike out some people.
If the Cubs are actually trying to be a World Series contender like Sharma and Mooney where talking about next year the way to get there is pretty narrow.
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If the Cubs are actually trying to be a World Series contender like Sharma and Mooney where talking about next year the way to get there is pretty narrow.
A question for you: do you think there is a “World Series contender” in the NL this season, aside from Braves and Dodgers?
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I wouldn't trade anybody based on any assumption of what Tauchman's contribution will be. This year may prove to be a total fluke.
Curt, I get being all-in on Bellinger - I certainly want him back. But do those very mediocre secondaries not concern you even a little when we're talking about probably $200 million or close to it?
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I wouldn't trade anybody based on any assumption of what Tauchman's contribution will be. This year may prove to be a total fluke.
Curt, I get being all-in on Bellinger - I certainly want him back. But do those very mediocre secondaries not concern you even a little when we're talking about probably $200 million or close to it?
I'm not Curt, but as the owner of Chicago's Quiet Knight used to say, "you pays your money and you takes your chances." And it's not my money.
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No, they don't. I think they will continue to improve as he plays back to form.
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Fair enough.
For me, that's a tough one. He passes the eye test, the K-rate is way down, the topline numbers are great. But all that makes the underlying numbers very puzzling.
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Could turn into Heyward II?
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I wouldn't trade anybody based on any assumption of what Tauchman's contribution will be. This year may prove to be a total fluke.
Curt, I get being all-in on Bellinger - I certainly want him back. But do those very mediocre secondaries not concern you even a little when we're talking about probably $200 million or close to it?
$200-ish is no problem. If we go north of $250, I'm out.
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A question for you: do you think there is a “World Series contender” in the NL this season, aside from Braves and Dodgers?
No. If you want to be in the hunt for the World Series year after year that is your completion. That doesn’t mean those two teams have a guaranteed birth in the World Series, but they have the best chance.
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Of course Braves and Dodgers have the “best” chance to reach the WS this season.
That’s not the question.
The question is whether there are other NL World Series contenders this season aside from Braves and Dodgers?
The answer is No???
How about the Phillies? Brewers? Cubs? Giants? Reds? Marlins? DBacks? All non-contenders to reach WS?
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
RHP Keegan Thompson has been recalled by the Cubs, @chicagotribune has learned, and will be available tonight at Pirates.
In last four outings at Triple A, Thompson allowed only two earned runs and one walk in 8 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts
[Michael Rucker optioned to Iowa]
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Interesting with Keegan. His recent stretch has gotten his Iowa ERA down under 10.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-move-drew-smyly-back-to-bullpen-leaving-opening-in-rotation/
Ron linked the Hoyer interview with Taylor McGregor in the other thread. She asked about Wicks getting scratched yesterday; Hoyer only confirmed that "he was scratched yesterday". But he coupled that non-answer with his biggest of extreme grins. I may be misreading, but I that smile to to be his nonverbal of "I can't say so yet, Taylor; but yes, you're asking if he's coming up to replace Smyly and you're right" confirmation.
So I think Keegan is just till Sunday than he'll go back when Wicks comes up.
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Taylor also asked Hoyer about Stroman. "Our hope, certainly, is that his season is not over."
He was also asked about injury status on Brown, Burdi, Boxberger, Cody Heuer. Said Burdi has had some discomfort, but has a great arm and could help us if he gets healthy.
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…..So I think Keegan is just till Sunday than he'll go back when Wicks comes up.
Guessing it’s Palencia who goes back to Iowa, not Thompson—with the caveat that assuming Thompson doesn’t throw a ton of pitches Saturday or Sunday so would be unavailable for several days.
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Guessing it’s Palencia who goes back to Iowa, not Thompson—with the caveat that assuming Thompson doesn’t throw a ton of pitches Saturday or Sunday so would be unavailable for several days.
Good point, reb. You're probably right. The way Hoyer talked about Keegan, he did seem to have that hope that Keegan would have a chance to recapture what he was the previous two years. So yeah, his phrasing didn't sound like a token Thursday-Friday-Saturday-then-send-back plan.
*IF* you hypothetically get the old, competitive Keegan, I can see the upgrade. I'd prefer Palencia, because he's really tough on days when he throws strikes, and even when he's wild he's still hard to hit. And I don't see much hint that the old Keegan has really returned at Iowa. But, hope I'm wrong and he helps out. He's got the advantage that Ross remembers him as a guy he could trust.
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The Canario hot streak brings Wisdom to mind. Wisdom's spot as the high-K/high-HR RH platoon-DH seems a perfect fit for a role that Canario might take over at some point next year. *If* Canario hits, he might also eventually take Happ's spot versus LHP? RH Happ is kinda bad, so Canario wouldn't need to be great to surpass RH Happ, right? Really, any good RH bat that can hit lefties could help: this year, both Wisdom and Morel have weird reverse splits. (Wisdom: .855/.680 RHP/LHP, Morel .832/.726 RH/LH).
In looking to next year, I hypothesize that Hoyer will spend what it takes to re-sign both Bellinger and Candelario. :) :) . [I know I know, that will take a big commitment. But Hoyer has lots of money to spend, he's been itching to have a team good enough to justify spending and be in contending mode; and the farm-system arrow is up, so the timing is perfect. Plus both players seem very happy with the Cubs, so I expect the Cubs will win tiebreakers].
Given that hypothetical Bellinger/Candelerio-back premise, then:
1. Wisdom and Mastrobuoni would be the two roster spots to replace.
2. Mastrobuoni => PCA at some point.
3. Wisdom => Canario, at some point.
4. Bellinger could become full-time 1B. I know in some ways that seems like a waste of a high-level CF. But I assume playing 1B is lots more fun because there's so many plays to make; so I doubt he'd mind. Since 1B is so much more impactful defensively given so many more game-changing plays, using him at 1B would not be a waste.
5. Tauchman is the other guy at issue. He's having a good year, .367 OBP/.770-OPS are really good. He's earned a spot on next year's opening roster, zero doubt. I still question his future, though. He could easily relapse into a Heyward-hitter next year (or next day). In 2015, Chris Coghlan came out of nowhere and got hot right when the Cubs got hot; Maddon wanted him in the lineup so much that he benched Starlin Castro to play Coghlan, and even played him at 2B and 3B. But none of that lasted. Tauchman might be kinda like that, wouldn't surprise me if by next May, Tachman isn't a guy we want to replace.
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craig, if Ohtani's injury removes him from Jed's targets, the possibility of resigning the two you mention increases.
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.... [Taylor McGregor] asked about Wicks getting scratched yesterday; Hoyer only confirmed that "he was scratched yesterday". But he coupled that non-answer with his biggest of extreme grins. I may be misreading, but I took that smile to be his nonverbal of "I can't say so yet, Taylor; but yes, you're asking if he's coming up to replace Smyly and you're right" confirmation. ..
Wicks has reportedly left Iowa and is on his way. Tomorrow will be his 9th day since his last game, so he needs no rest. So I'm guessing Wicks gets tomorrow and Assad will get Sunday with an extra day. Cubs have next Thursday off, so both guys will then get another 6 days before their ensuing starts.
Wicks is only at 91 innings on the summer, so if he pitches well enough to stay in the rotation, I don't think his arm will be overly fried. He's pitched on 5 days rest twice this season. Mostly it's been 6 or more.
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Kinda weird to have a significant young fast-track Cubs pitching prospect coming up to get a crack at the rotation. Justin Steele, Keegan, and Assad have all gotten starts, obviously. But between the step-by-step track for Assad and all of the injuries for Steele and Thompson, they'd each kinda taken more extended paths. And I don't recall them being top-15 much-hyped type prospects even within the Cubs bad system. So having a first-round guy who's only 23, and who has been top-10 on most Cubs-prospects lists, seems kinda different.
Obviously Hendricks was a farm guy who came up and stuck in rotation, even if not a Cubs draftee. Again, a no-hype guy.
Before Keegan Thompson and Hendricks, Zastryzny (2nd round) got one fill-in start in 2016, but nobody thought he was a true candidate to stay in the rotation. Duane Underwood (2nd round) got a one start in 2018, but again, rotation hopes were negligible.
Go back to Andrew Cashner (from 2008 draft) in 2011 to find a high Cubs draft pick who got a rotation start, at a time when I thought "this guy might be in next-year's rotation."
Before that Jeff Samardzija from 2006 draft, and Sean Marshall from the 2003 draft. Crazy to have Wicks up already and starting!
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If Wicks sucks and gets pounded, I'll be okay with it. Better than going down another time with Smyly..
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Sharma has an extremely positive column on Yan Gomes. Worth a read.
https://theathletic.com/4806035/2023/08/27/cubs-yan-gomes/
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If both Assad and Wicks are for both as good as they have looked so far, this rotation just got much deeper and better.
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Wicks scared the crap out of me last night with his first half dozen pitches, but he impressed me how he stayed focused and started really dealing.
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Has anyone else noticed that the umps don't always check the pitchers at the end of the inning. ex: When Assad went to the dugout last inning, no check.
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Brewers win again so their tough stretch turned out not so tough other than the Dodgers series. Considering how hot the Brewers are, the Cubs need to avoid the sweep and keep trying to win series thereafter. Barring a sweep it's not looking like the Brewers are coming back to the Cubs in the division.
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The Cubs are now 10-1-1 in their last 12 series dating back to mid-July. I predict that if the Cubs do not lose any more series the rest of the season, they will be in the playoffs. Furthermore, I predict if they get into the post-season and do not lose any more series, they will have an extremely successful year.
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I predict that if the Cubs don't ever lose again this year they will be World Champions. This prediction business is really easy.
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Brewers win again so their tough stretch turned out not so tough other than the Dodgers series. Considering how hot the Brewers are, the Cubs need to avoid the sweep and keep trying to win series thereafter. Barring a sweep it's not looking like the Brewers are coming back to the Cubs in the division.
Brewers, Phillies, and D-Backs have all been red-hot. Cubs have gone 7-3, gained on none of them, and lost ground to both Brewers and AZ.
Fun to be winning, to be interested in what the Cubs do, and to have reason for scoreboard watching again.
But yeah, against the Brewers pitching, hoping to win the series would be fun, but avoiding getting swept might be the minimum goal.
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Who knows, but Brewers could win it all this year!
As is typical, their leadership makes smart moves at the deadline and, this season, their offense has since taken off.
They have two great starters and terrific relievers, which added to momentum and good health about rounds out the formula.
IF we could win 2 of 3 from them, that would be HUGE! It might not make the difference in the Central, but it would help us a lot with a WC!
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I don't much care what other teams are doing. The Cubs are playing good ball and winning lots of games. Let them continue to do so and let the chips fall where they may.
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Right now Chicago sportswriters should be preparing a set of questions for Brewer players about the team relocating next year. Ask if the prefer San Antonio, Nashville, or Green Bay which have been listed as possible destinations and how it will effect their families. That will get their minds out of focus.
Not making that up. It's rampant in Milwaukee. Lot of BS to get money to repair their stadium.
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On the Saturday game broadcast, the crew put up a graphic noting that: since 6/13, Cubs have the fourth best bullpen ERA in the majors at 3.11.
Wesneski messed that up some with his 5 earned run appearance later that game, but Cubs bullpen has been quite good now for about 2 1/2 months.
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Suzuki is slugging just over .500 since all-star break (152 PAs).
On the season, now slugging .443.
If this continues, it’s a big deal. Many have been waiting for this and maybe—if we’re lucky—it’s a harbinger of things to come from Seiya.
Cubs were really struggling with slugging earlier part of the season, but with Suzuki hitting like this lately, Candelario on board, Bellinger still hot. Will help when Swanson comes out of his slump.
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Jim made a good point during the broadcast today. Having a lineup with depth allows regulars to go through the expected slumps without the offense cratering. The Cubs have been a pretty good example of that over the past few months. And especially lately.
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Suzuki’s numbers right now are eerily similar to his 2022 numbers, in about the same number of PAs.
Maybe this is about what he is. Maybe he’s turned a corner and adjusted to the league, as sometimes happens with Japanese hitters. I wasn’t that thrilled with all the bulking up he did in the offseason, and that might have impacted him negatively even before the injury - and now he’s adjusted to his new physique and mechanics.
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I loved the sequence when he stretched a single into a double, tagged up on Gomes' fly out to CF, and scored on Madrigal's infield tap with a great slide (which they unfortunately didn't show a good replay of).
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Or maybe it was Candelario who hit the infield tap.
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It was Jeimer, and yeah…I liked that sequence as well…
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Until his 2023 post-break performance, Suzuki has had an extended disappointing slugging.
Post-break 2022: .418 slug in 235 PAs. Pre-break 2023: .405 slug in 298 PAs.
Do the math. That’s .412 slugging in 533 consecutive PAs. That’s not what he was brought here to do.
Suzuki at .500 slug for an extended period is encouraging and not just the brief flashes we saw last April and September.
Hope it continues.
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In 2022 Suzuki slugged .529 in March/April (84 PAs). He slugged .493 in Sept/Oct (79 PAs). This year he’s slugging .708 in August (69 PAs). It’s a hot month (his hottest in MLB, to be sure) - he’s had hot months before. There’s no way to know if this is another hot month or a new normal. Obviously it’s coming at a good time, so let’s enjoy it and hope it’s the latter.
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MLB.com has Bellinger as the #2 pending free agent this winter, which seems about right at this point.
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MLB.com has Bellinger as the #2 pending free agent this winter, which seems about right at this point.
Candelario didn't make the list and he's better than two or three that did.
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Bleacher Nation had an article that included a nugget I have forgotten about.
Under the new rules, the Cubs (everyone) has to bring up at least one position player Friday. Let's guess who that will be. My guess is Matt Mervis.
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Cuas to the bereavement list, Kay up…
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Pregame last night, they had a great interview with Cuas.
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Angels have put Matt Moore on waivers (plus bunch of other guys, including Giolito).
Moore would seem to be a fit for Cubs bullpen but wonder if his salary might put Cubs in CBT territory, if claimed.
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Also waived…
Harrison Bader
Carlos Carrasco
Jose Cisnero
Mike Clevinger
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It’s an interesting dilemma. Moore could obviously help the team on paper, but do you go into the tax now for him to chase a wild card, when in theory you’re going to go over in the next year or two if you’re chasing real contention?
Someone could easily claim him first anyway, making all that moot.
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Moore wouldn't put us over lux line, I don't think. There's only a month left, so only 1/6 of his salary, ~$1.2. Back at trade deadline, Hoyer seemed to be in the shuffle for guys who had salary, back when Cubs would've been liable for 1/3 of a guy's season salary.
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I’d rather have Clevinger. He’s had a nice year for a really bad team.
He’s making 12M this year, so maybe 2M this year, and he has a mutual option for 12M next season.
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Moore wouldn't put us over lux line, I don't think. There's only a month left, so only 1/6 of his salary, ~$1.2. Back at trade deadline, Hoyer seemed to be in the shuffle for guys who had salary, back when Cubs would've been liable for 1/3 of a guy's season salary.
According to Roster Resource, Cubs about $5.28 below CBT. But, think there are some bonus incentives that will impact that. Gomes (and couple others???) have games played bonuses and Bellinger gets a bonus if wins Comeback POY (seems a lock on that one). Cubs probably could add Moore’s 1/6 of season and still be under but probably only Cubs know for certain.
In any case, yeah, perhaps is claimed by club with higher waver claim priority.
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I’d take Lopez too if nobody claims him.
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Interesting article by Sharma and Moody on Ross and lineup construction.
https://theathletic.com/4810720/2023/08/28/david-ross-cubs-manager-playoff-contender/
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Nico Horner has high praise for Nick Madrigal's defense at 3B.
https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-cubs/cubs-nico-hoerner-believes-nick-madrigal-defense-3rd-base-underappreciated?fbclid=IwAR1krpXPegMjYP4lHuTHnLktPmQER5Yk40-jyeEXrI9MVVrQb5wpe9Ui6Tw
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One of the things that happens to teams with unexpectedly good seasons is some unexpectedly good contributions from individual players. Madrigal's 3B defense is one of those. I remember how skeptical the board was when there was talk at the convention that Madrigal was going to try to pick up 3B. But it's worked defensively.
Some others:
1. Obviously Bellinger is the biggest unexpected outcome.
2. Tauchman.
3. Amaya
4. Morel
5. Assad. Who anticipated he would be a sub-3-ERA rotation asset entering September?
6. Steele. Yes, we assumed he'd be in rotation. But 2.69 ERA, did we really anticipate that?
7. Gomes. Don't think many expected that a 35-year-old primary catcher would be hitting .270 and OPS-ing at .734.
8. Leiter. Journeyman posted a 3.99 ERA last year and got non-rostered. Did we expect him to be a shut-down-lefties reverses-split guy of this level?
9. Merryweather.
10. Alzolay
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Cubs will be seeing a lot of the DBacks soon.
Seven of next 17 Cubs games are against DBacks.
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There are performance bonus (0pretty sure Bellinger has some) that put the Cubs closer to the CBT tax line than they appear.
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Cubs will be seeing a lot of the DBacks soon.
Seven of next 17 Cubs games are against DBacks.
Yeah. Cubs are in 5th place, and their next 10 games are against the teams right behind them in 6th-8th place, then after Rockies series right back to Arizona for 3 more.
The season will end with series in Atlanta and Milwaukee. Who knows if the Cubs will still be in playoff contention by that point.
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I'm less worried about Atlanta and Milwaukee than I am about Arizona and Colorado. Those two organizations are bad luck for the Cubs.
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I'm less worried about Atlanta and Milwaukee than I am about Arizona and Colorado. Those two organizations are bad luck for the Cubs.
and they gots nuttin to lose.
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The D'Backs have plenty to lose.
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With double-header tomorrow, can the Cubs still call up an extra pitcher for the day under the new CBA?
At present, 2nd game of DH lists as unannounced. Ross would seem to have plenty of options.
*Smyly and Wesneski would be the big-league roster options.
*If they wanted to call up either a starter or a long-man from Iowa, Killian hasn't pitched since the 25th. He's normally on a 6-day rotation for Iowa, so tonight should be his night. So whether he pitches tonight or not might indicate if he's the callup. (Whether or not he's just long-man for after Smyly hypothetically gets bombed, or might actually start, different question.).
*Shane Green just pitched Sunday, so Friday would put him on 5-day. Sunday was his first time starting on only a 5-day rhythm, and he pitched 75 pitches 4 innings. Did they reduce him from 6-day to 5-day cycle on Sunday exactly to get him lined up for tomorrow? Who knows?
I wonder how long Cuas will be out? He's wild for sure, but I kinda love his delivery! Would like to have him available for a DH to cover 2 innings, and just hope it's a good day when he's not walking the world. Would much rather have him trying to cover a pair of innings in a competitive game than Kay.
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Canario is being promoted:
Jesse Rogers @JesseRogersESPN
September call up news: The Cubs are promoting outfielder Alexander Canario, sources tell ESPN. Canario, 23, has recovered from some bad injuries and caught fire recently at Triple-A. He has an .866 OPS in 36 games this season at Iowa. He'll be making his MLB debut when he plays.
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Wow. I wonder whether he'll actually get any AB. Probably more a deal where he's already on the 40, and it's a nice opportunity for him to get comfortable with the guys and with Kelly and the staff? And get a PH opportunity here or there?
If he was to actually get a start or two, I'd assume that would be either:
1. LF start versus a LHP. Happ isn't very good hitting RH.
2. DH start in place of Wisdom.
Maybe in Friday's double-header, *IF* one of the Cinci starters was a lefty, Happ could get a rest with Canario getting a start?
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DH production has become a problem again—with Morel slumping and Wisdom blah—so guessing that Canario will get starts at DH.
Thought that Cubs would address that with a lefty bat (Mervis or Perlaza switch) but going with hot hand Canario. Interesting.
Will be fun to see that.
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Rosters expand to 28 on 9/1 but I think the extra man for doubleheader still applies even after roster expansion. If correct, that would mean three more guys for this Friday doubleheader—at least one pitcher, maybe two.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
September call up news: The Cubs are promoting veteran righty Shane Greene, 34, who has been starting at Triple-A Iowa, sources tell ESPN. He hasn't started a big league game since 2016. In the interim, he's saved 67, mostly for the Tigers. Story of great perseverance.
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Rosters expand to 28 on 9/1 but I think the extra man for doubleheader still applies even after roster expansion. If correct, that would mean three more guys for this Friday doubleheader—at least one pitcher, maybe two.
By "three more", that's including Canario and Green, yes?
If I were guessing, I'd figure those two will stay up. And I'll guess Killian for the Friday-only innings sponge if needed.
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...September call up news: The Cubs are promoting veteran righty Shane Greene, 34, who has been starting at Triple-A Iowa, sources tell ESPN. He hasn't started a big league game since 2016. In the interim, he's saved 67, mostly for the Tigers. Story of great perseverance.
I'll guess he starts Friday, rather than Smyly or Wesneski. They will be available to eat innings if Green (or Assad) don't last long.
I wonder how long Cuas will be gone? Perhaps for the extra pitcher on friday, Cuas will come back but they'll just keep Kay up for at least that day?
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Is...was...Greene on the 40 man? If not, who got chopped?
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Is...was...Greene on the 40 man? If not, who got chopped?
Didn’t they have 3 open slots?
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I wasn't keeping up with the reports.
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I can't understand why the limit on call-ups is so low. The contenders will have overworked pitching staffs and need help; the non-contenders will need to evaluate more than just two new players.
I remember the Giants having 18 pitchers on the roster in 2016 (when they claimed Joe Nathan from us, and there were no normal jersey numbers left to give out so he took his birth year of 74). That's a little much, but even five or six callups would be good. Our bullpen could be 1998-level gassed by the last week of the season the way things are going.
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I don’ like that change either. Maybe it was too many before, but 28 is not enough.
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One of the reasons for the virtually unlimited call-ups—before the change to 28 max—was that AAA season shut down around Labor Day. So, for a bunch of organizations, the AAA guys just went home if not recalled with expanded rosters.
Now, Iowa Cubs for example, play thru September 24 this season. If the big club needs some guys, they can be called up and ready to play at a moments notice.
28 players at any one time seems okay, so long as replacements can be available quickly in case of a need——and that’s the case with a longer AAA season.
The former huge September rosters were kind of a different game than what preceded it for five months. Lots of folks didn’t like all the moves and games took longer to play.
If I recall, MLBPA wanted a spot or two more than 28, but traded it away for other bargaining goals.
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I don't know what Belli is going to cost us, but I dread next season without him. I realize that if he does a Correa-like flop next year, we'll suffer for a long time, but we'll suffer for a long time without him, too.
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He makes throws in the dirt look effortless.
For my money, he’s my 1Bman the next 8 years…assuming PCA is indeed the future in CF…
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs have gone from 10 games below .500 to 10 games above .500 in the same season.
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Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
Cubs move: Jose Cuas reinstated from the bereavement list and Anthony Kay optioned to Iowa.
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I don't know what Belli is going to cost us, but I dread next season without him. I realize that if he does a Correa-like flop next year, we'll suffer for a long time, but we'll suffer for a long time without him, too.
I think this will be the winter where Theo-Hoyer don't replace their hitting coach.
I'm confident the Cubs will resign Bellinger. Earlier in the rebuilt, I didn't think the Cubs made sense for stars. Why would a star sign with a rebuilding team with an uncertain future, versus a better team?
But *IF* the Cubs can stay good and get into the playoffs, it just seems like such an obvious fit. He likes it here. He loves Kelly. Good, smart players all love Ross. The Cubs clubhouse chemistry is excellent. They're already very good, and they've got a strong farm system per outside objective analysts. There doesn't appear to be any impending lux-line crisis. So the arrow seems up for the team. Arizona is his place for winter training and spring training. So it seems to me like this is not a deal where Bellinger has any reason to be wanting to get out of town.
The previous several off-seasons, why would any FA choose the Cubs over equivalent offers from better teams? But this winter, why would Bellinger choose any equivalent offer over the Cubs? All ties, or even-close-to-tie offers, should go in the Cubs direction.
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@sahadevsharmaCubs move: Jose Cuas reinstated from the bereavement list and Anthony Kay optioned to Iowa.
Cuas is now listed as the Game 2 starter. Perhaps "opener" should be the word?
Wonder what the plan is, and what Cinci assumes or has been told? Go with Cuas for two innings, get a LH-heavy lineup, and then bring in Smyly for hopefully 3-5 innings against the lefty-rich lineup?
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So do we still think Stro opts out? Or does he exercise the player option, essentially treating it as a pillow contract?
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What do you think, tico?
I have no idea. If I was to guess, I'd guess maybe 70/30 odds that he still opts out? Go for multi-year money? Nobody expects a rib-fracture to be some long-term chronic injury. So given the market and supply-demand, I'd guess his agent will figure he can still get a good multi-year deal?
As his agent, I might be nervous that if he has an ineffective year, or has a 3rd straight year with injuries, or if his velocity declines a little more, that then coming back as an almost-34-year-old finesse guy in 15 months might not be a great market? So I think I'd maybe go for the multi-year now when he's still 32?
But if my client likes Ross and Wrigley and Hottovy and the Cubs, and sees this as a winning situation moving forward, I'd certainly entertain extension conversation with Hoyer, if he's interested.
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Miguel Amaya is 5 for his last 42 ABs.
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Reb, I'd guess Amaya's primary issue is as Morel's and most other 24-year olds playing MLB - by mid-August, let alone September, it's been a LONG season and he's rather gassed, mentally and physically.
I wish we could give Amaya a few consecutive days off, as we did Seiya, but in the hurly-burly of a tight playoff race and only one other catcher, that doesn't seem very likely.
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Kind of doubt that Amaya’s playing time is a factor.
Baseball players have slumps. Candelario was in a slump before homering, Swansons OPS has dropped 40 points recently, Tauchman has slumped before his 4-hit game today.
For younger guys like Morel and Amaya, maybe a bit more of a concern about pitchers exploiting holes and adjustments having to be made. Hard to say looking in from the outside.
Noting that Amaya is 5-42 is just a factual comment. Have no idea why happening, aside from players slump sometimes.
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Is there a reason that we can't send Morel down for a week or 10 days to get his stroke back?
I realize that we can't do that with Amaya, unless we resigned Barnhardt who's still floating around out there.
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Oh, don't need Barnhardt, Higgins is down there.
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I think Barnhart signed somewhere…LA, maybe?
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
With the victory today, the Cubs (74-64) match their 2022 win total.
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AZPhil reported that Stroman threw about 35 pitches in his bullpen today and afterward there were fist bumps and high fives fwiw.
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So do we still think Stro opts out? Or does he exercise the player option, essentially treating it as a pillow contract?
The Cubs are probably going to be in the playoffs now. I think this is completely up in the air until we see how Stroman and the Cubs do in the postseason.
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Barnhart signed a minor league deal with LA.
We've given his number 18 away already, to Shane Greene.
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Suzuki up to .807 OPS.
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Lots of games left this month, but looks like we will gain a game tonight on the Phils, who are getting bombed (8-0 in the 9th) in San Diego.
We will be 1.5 games behind the Phils and we're now 2.5 games behind the Brewers.
Winning the NL Central or 1st NL wild card would be HUGE as those two teams (#3 and #4 seeds) will host all 3 Wild Card Series games this year (vs the #5 and #6 seeds).
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Brewers, Marlins, Reds win.
Phillies, DBacks lose.
Agree, ben it would be so nice for Cubs and Chicago to somehow catch/pass Brewers and Phillies and get to host a series, get whatever revenue hosting would generate, maybe win a playoff game or two in Wrigley. that would be fun.
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Two wins in WC series would be more fun than one win.
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Luke Little being called up, no word yet on who from the 28-man he's replacing.
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Shane Greene.
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https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-cubs/cubs-david-ross-explains-why-alexander-canario-hasnt-played-yet
“Look, we’re in a really good position to win,” Ross said. “The guys that got us here are going to play. And the guys that are on the bench, if they’ve got roles, they’ll fill in those roles. (Nick) Madrigal has moved in and out (of the lineup). (Patrick) Wisdom has moved in and out. (Miles) Mastrobuoni is here to run. Canario got called up for a September call-up. He’ll play when he’s needed and fills in nicely or the game gets out of hand one way or the other – get some at-bats, get in the outfield. I think the future is bright for a lot of our minor leaguers that are coming up, but now’s not the time that I’m trying to get those guys at-bats.”
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The General Manager decides who will be on the active roster (currently 26 players) but traditionally, the Field Manager decides who plays on a particular day. There have been GMs or even owners that violate that tradition, but not a lot of them.
If the General Manager agrees with the Field Manager, there is no problem (and we don't know if the Cubs GM agrees with this or not), but if the Field Manager knows that he is violating the GMs guidance, he has to be rather confidant in his job security, since he can always be fired.
In fairness, the Cubs are performing better than the vast majority of fans expected this season, so his job isn't likely to be in severe jeopardy.
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Canario might as well be getting ABs at Iowa…
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With the two September callous, could both be pitchers? Or do rules preclude having more pitchers than players?
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I think that at least one must be a position player. Not certain.
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Start one of the pitchers you want to bring up in Iowa's outfield for 10 days or so. :)
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The General Manager decides who will be on the active roster (currently 26 players) but traditionally, the Field Manager decides who plays on a particular day. There have been GMs or even owners that violate that tradition, but not a lot of them……
Manager decides “on a particular day” yes, but roster usage overall seems to be a joint decision these days—with the front office the primary decider in most cases. It’s not like the old days anymore. This relationship has changed dramatically in recent years.
In his recent book Joe Maddon talks about what he felt was the overly intrusive role of the front office on the manager. Indeed, that’s probably one of the reasons why Ross is here and Maddon isn’t. The deal is Ross is more compliant than Maddon was comfortable doing.
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Clubs required to carry 28 players with a limit of 14 pitchers maximum in Sept. Can carry fewer than 14 pitchers—up to the club, but 14 max.
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Manager decides “on a particular day” yes, but roster usage overall seems to be a joint decision these days—with the front office the primary decider in most cases. It’s not like the old days anymore. This relationship has changed dramatically in recent years.
In his recent book Joe Maddon talks about what he felt was the overly intrusive role of the front office on the manager. Indeed, that’s probably one of the reasons why Ross is here and Maddon isn’t. The deal is Ross is more compliant than Maddon was comfortable doing.
The relationship between the GM and Field manager has indeed changed, but that change seems to be involved with in-game coaching rather than player selection. Hiitting coaches deal directly with the hitters during the game, and pitching coaches directly with the pitcher, thus reducing the control of the manager, obviously something that Maddon did not appreciate. However, I have never heard anything that would indicate that managers have lost the ability to decide on the lineup and usage of players on a daily basis. Managers have no power to choose who is on their active roster, but they seem to still have the power to make out their daily lineup. I am sure that there is, as there has always been, interchange of ideas between General Manager and Field Manager. But the final decision seems to be still up to the Field Manager.
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Imagine what Bellinger’s stats would be if he hadn’t missed a month…
He’d be in the MVP discussion.
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“Usage on a daily basis” is no different than usage “on a particular day.” Yes, the manager fills out the lineup care.
But, for example, when Mervis came up, pretty sure the front office told Ross how often they wanted/ expected Mervis to play. Ditto for Amaya. When Wisdom phased out as a regular, ditto.
Dave, you should read Maddon’s book. Here’s an excerpt from a review:
“Since losing his job, Maddon, 68, has collaborated with Tom Verducci on a new book called “The Book of Joe.” SI on Thursday published an excerpt from the book. The excerpt illustrates Maddon’s view on the struggle between managers and front offices. According to Maddon, managers no longer think or act too independently. Rather, he says front offices control many roster decisions, including which relief pitchers are available on a day-to-day basis.The micromanaging by the front office has made Maddon feel less and less valuable, and more and more like his territory — and what has made him successful — is being encroached upon.”
“The former Angels manager even shared a story of a conflict he had with Angels GM Perry Minasian. According to Maddon, Minasian called down to the dugout after the Angels had broken a May 9 game open against the Rays. Once the Angels extended their lead from 6-3 to 11-3, Minasian called down to the dugout and told Maddon to remove Mike Trout from the game since Trout had complained of a groin issue before the game.”
Back to me now. Maddon also talks in his book about how the front office instructs the coaches not to interfere with the little cards players look at on defense about positioning. Also talks about the presence of front office people in clubhouse getting in the way of the coaches and his coaches complaining about that.
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Imagine what Bellinger’s stats would be if he hadn’t missed a month…
He’d be in the MVP discussion.
Respectfully, with the years Betts and Acuna Jr. are having there's no way he would.
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As I mentioned above, the game has changed. And I am quite sure that there are, and have always been, GMs that interfere with what have traditionally been Field Manager decisions. But most of it seems to have been to make the coaches much more independent with decisions in their specialty areas, and I believe most of those decisions are in the nature of a veto (you can't use Alzolay today) rather than a directive (you must use Alzolay today).
I haven't read Maddons book, but I have read excerpts (including yours) and have seen excerpts of interviews of Maddon when discussing his book. There is little doubt that the game has left him behind. Coaches are no longer has been cronies of the manager, but are hired by the GM and expected to be give direction in their individual specialties, whether pitching or defense, and "seat of the pants" managers are becoming a thing of the past (which in my opinion is a good thing, since I have always believed that the manager's effect on the performance of the team is probably less than that of a middle reliever). It would be insane to spend millions of dollars to bring science to the game (spin rate, arm slot, tunneling, etc.) and then throw it out the window to go with the managers hunch. But I haven't seen any indication that the manager doesn't decide what his roster will be on any given day, subject to medical advice.
The game is certainly changing. And although change does not necessarily equate to progress, the vast majority of the change has been, in my opionion, for the better.
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Well said, DaveP
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“Usage on a daily basis” is no different than usage “on a particular day.” Yes, the manager fills out the lineup care.
But, for example, when Mervis came up, pretty sure the front office told Ross how often they wanted/ expected Mervis to play. Ditto for Amaya. When Wisdom phased out as a regular, ditto.
Dave, you should read Maddon’s book. Here’s an excerpt from a review:
“Since losing his job, Maddon, 68, has collaborated with Tom Verducci on a new book called “The Book of Joe.” SI on Thursday published an excerpt from the book. The excerpt illustrates Maddon’s view on the struggle between managers and front offices. According to Maddon, managers no longer think or act too independently. Rather, he says front offices control many roster decisions, including which relief pitchers are available on a day-to-day basis.The micromanaging by the front office has made Maddon feel less and less valuable, and more and more like his territory — and what has made him successful — is being encroached upon.”
“The former Angels manager even shared a story of a conflict he had with Angels GM Perry Minasian. According to Maddon, Minasian called down to the dugout after the Angels had broken a May 9 game open against the Rays. Once the Angels extended their lead from 6-3 to 11-3, Minasian called down to the dugout and told Maddon to remove Mike Trout from the game since Trout had complained of a groin issue before the game.”
Back to me now. Maddon also talks in his book about how the front office instructs the coaches not to interfere with the little cards players look at on defense about positioning. Also talks about the presence of front office people in clubhouse getting in the way of the coaches and his coaches complaining about that.
I loved Joe Maddon when he managed the Cubs (up til his later days) and in my view there would be no World Series Championship without him. At that time, with that team he was the right guy at the right time (for a while). That said, I would not rely on his views as a necessarily completely accurate view of the general relationship between front offices and managers. For example, there is no reason to believe that the front office-manager relationships of the Angels and the Cubs is comparable. I expect there is a continuum of relationship types between major league front offices and managers these days. To be sure, the last year or so, Maddon was unhappy with the influence the Cubs front office sought to have on some over how he approached his job. And I suspect that Maddon may not fit well with any team any more because he expects to be able to do things his own way, period. And those days appear to be over.
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Imagine what Bellinger’s stats would be if he hadn’t missed a month…
He’d be in the MVP discussion.
What would his stats be if he didn't shorten up and try to put the ball in play when he has two strikes? He has sacrificed power for team. Wisdom and Bryant could learn a thing or two.
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“Usage on a daily basis” is no different than usage “on a particular day.” Yes, the manager fills out the lineup care.
But, for example, when Mervis came up, pretty sure the front office told Ross how often they wanted/ expected Mervis to play. Ditto for Amaya. When Wisdom phased out as a regular, ditto.
Dave, you should read Maddon’s book. Here’s an excerpt from a review:
“Since losing his job, Maddon, 68, has collaborated with Tom Verducci on a new book called “The Book of Joe.” SI on Thursday published an excerpt from the book. The excerpt illustrates Maddon’s view on the struggle between managers and front offices. According to Maddon, managers no longer think or act too independently. Rather, he says front offices control many roster decisions, including which relief pitchers are available on a day-to-day basis.The micromanaging by the front office has made Maddon feel less and less valuable, and more and more like his territory — and what has made him successful — is being encroached upon.”
“The former Angels manager even shared a story of a conflict he had with Angels GM Perry Minasian. According to Maddon, Minasian called down to the dugout after the Angels had broken a May 9 game open against the Rays. Once the Angels extended their lead from 6-3 to 11-3, Minasian called down to the dugout and told Maddon to remove Mike Trout from the game since Trout had complained of a groin issue before the game.”
Back to me now. Maddon also talks in his book about how the front office instructs the coaches not to interfere with the little cards players look at on defense about positioning. Also talks about the presence of front office people in clubhouse getting in the way of the coaches and his coaches complaining about that.
In this back and forth, I'm reminded of how Dusty Baker had his GM often DFA or trade players he would keep using in spite of no production. If Dusty was still managing the Cubs, he would still be trying to get Mancini, Smiley, and Barnhardt going. Oh, and Wisdom. Wisdom would be playing every day. The Cubs would be teasing the .500 line.
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Yeah. Look at how he messed up the Astros.
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Dusty seems to win no matter where he manages, so obviously something he is doing is working. I just can't seem to figure out what that is.
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To Dusty's credit, he's evolved (or accepted his forced evolution). He is, without a doubt, being strongarmed by the Astros' front office. Don't believe for a minute any different.
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Don't read too much into my comments about Dusty and his old school ways. He has changed either by choice or force. He's always been a good guy back to our days in high school. We went to different schools and I never played against him except Babe Ruth League one summer. Glad he finally got his ring.
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…. I would not rely on his views as a necessarily completely accurate view of the general relationship between front offices and managers. For example, there is no reason to believe that the front office-manager relationships of the Angels and the Cubs is comparable. I expect there is a continuum of relationship types between major league front offices and managers these days…
Obviously, not every manager/front office relationship is identical. One can call it Ron’s “continuum of relationship types” and not get into a factual conundrum on that. And this holds true even in the old days of field manager prominence. Safe to say that the field manager listened to Branch Rickey more than some other managers of the day listened to their front office. With all respect, don’t think any of that tells us a whole lot on the subject of how the role of the field manager has changed in today’s game. Yes, a senior guy like Craig Counsel probably has more influence. That’s an individual thing, not a systemic thing.
But, Maddon’s book is saying stuff nobody is really disputing around baseball as a fair depiction of how the manager/front office has changed. Managers just take it and live with it now. It is a fantasy to think that front offices doesn’t control the roster and how players are used. Today’s lineup is today’s schedule of events but the syllabus is controlled by the front office. And the syllabus is continually reviewed by the front office and the field manager understands that and his more limited role in decision-making.
Front offices don’t have to do what Dave calls a “directive” to the manager. When the game is ongoing, of course the manager makes the moves. It’s a live event. But, if, say, the Cubs front office wanted Morel to play in the field more often, then Morel would play more in the field. If the front office wanted Morel to have fewer DH ABs in favor of somebody else, then somebody else would get more DH ABs. Ross would get the message without it having to be in the nature of a “directive.” Ross understands that his job is to carry out what the front office wants on the bigger picture than today’s lineup. Day-after-tomorrow’s lineup? Ross understands his role. He gets feedback from front office on all kinds of things. Call it what you will.
Not talking about whether this is a “better” historical practice. Of course it’s a better practice because it’s mostly based on data and, generally, having more brains working on a subject usually is a better practice (with some notable exceptions). Rather, talking about how role of the manager has changed, period.
It’s still an important job and in some ways more complex than the old ways. Manager has to know what makes each player tick, has to face the media and social media daily, cover for the player when called for (as Ross did for Leiter’s “gassed” appearance), deal with a whole lot of front office people. Then there are the fans who think they know what the manager should have done during today’s game without actually having the information that the manager gets. Tough job.
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...he says front offices control many roster decisions, including which relief pitchers are available on a day-to-day basis.
“...According to Maddon, Minasian called down to the dugout after the Angels had broken a May 9 game open against the Rays. Once the Angels extended their lead from 6-3 to 11-3, Minasian called down to the dugout and told Maddon to remove Mike Trout from the game since Trout had complained of a groin issue before the game.”
Back to me now. Maddon also talks in his book about how the front office instructs the coaches not to interfere with the little cards players look at on defense about positioning.
Not sure I understand the last one. But seems like if these are the biggest examples of complaints that Maddon has, seems pretty good for the front office. Seems like tracking guys with injuries, and health plans for pitchers, that seems pretty good.
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Not sure I understand the last one. But seems like if these are the biggest examples of complaints that Maddon has, seems pretty good for the front office. Seems like tracking guys with injuries, and health plans for pitchers, that seems pretty good.
Maddon says when his coaches had adjustments or modifications on defensive positioning and the like—that had been drawn up by the front office—he and the coaches got flack for that——felt limited their ability to coach based on their own perceived expertise.
I don’t know if that’s good or bad but it’s one example of a form of micro-managing game situations that’s part of the new era of front office authority vis a vis the on-field staff.
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Does he give indications of how much of that was flak from Angels versus Theo's guys?
I admit if I was FO and had hired these analysts to process spray charts and stuff, and then the manager wanted to shift things on a hunch, that could be frustrating. Especially if hits fall that would have been outs had the guys positioned like the analysts had analyzed.
But yeah, I'd think there ought to be some situational flexibility.
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If analytics say there is a 55% chance that decision A is preferable to decision B, it's not a big deal for the manager to go with decision B now and then. Playing a hunch when the odds are solidly the other way is problematic.
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Sharma has a piece on the Cubs' Bullpen.
I enjoyed this quote from David Ross:
“I think it’s important when guys are dealing with stuff, I can’t always let you guys know,” Ross said. “Sometimes I gotta lie if that’s OK. Everybody’s dealing with something this time of year and you give guys days off. You try to rest them and stay away from them. Sometimes four days is better than 15. It’s that time of year. We try to navigate the best we can and try to fill holes. It’s my job to navigate that and take the heat if I need to. I make the dumbest moves in the world. Why didn’t I throw this guy or that guy? There’s stuff in this seat you don’t want everybody to know. Protecting the players is everything.”
https://theathletic.com/4840029/2023/09/07/cubs-bullpen-adbert-alzolay/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail
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Listen to Buster’s ESPN podcast on Wednesday discussing Cubs offense and playoff prospects.
Starts At 15:30:
https://www.espn.com/radio/play/_/id/38340555
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Wow! Thanks Reb! Very interesting podcast...so many very positive comments about the Cubs and the offense:
* "lineup has been magnificent the past 3 months...second only to Atl with 5.9 runs per game"
* "11 more two-out runs in that span" than any other team - the "best timely hitting team in baseball the last 3 months" (remember when it seemed like we couldn't get ANY timely hits?)
* "an assembly line" of "selfless hitters" who have scored "41 more runs without a homer" in last 3 months than any other team
* "run-scoring diversity is extremely valuable in October vs the best pitchers" and Cubs can "manufacture runs so they can beat you 3-2 or 6-4"
* "Cubs have all the attributes of a team that can make a deep run" and they are "one of the two or three best teams defensively, especially in the infield"
Of course, the podcast doesn't go deep into our pitching, which is sort of a "who knows" some nights and pitching tends to be the #1 key in October.
Let's hope the surprisingly gushing podcast doesn't launch the Cubs into a hitting slump!
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Right. So have Hoyer and Ross been fired yet? ;)
Seriously, thanks for the excerpts, craig!
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Link below is Teams Runs Scored from June 13 to today.
As day began on June 13, Cubs were 28-37.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-06-13&enddate=2023-11-01&sortcol=5&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1
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Jared Young is 15 for his last 34 ABs at Iowa, with six homers.
Given that there seems to be no interest in ABs for Canario, maybe Cubs should recall Young for Canario and play Young at DH vs. righties.
I know Cubs tried Young earlier this season, but would like to see a lefty bat option at DH.
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Boxberger activated, Thompson to Iowa
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Jeimer Candelario came out of the game today because his back tightened up. Ross said he’s getting checked out.
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PCA being called up, for better or worse. Don’t know if Candelario is going on the DL.
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Wow…LFG!
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A week or two back, when asked about Canario, Ross mentioned situational purposes/roles for different players, and mentioned Mastrobuoni being on the roster for his speed. MM went in as a pinch-runner last series, and got thrown out stealing. PCA is faster; I wonder if he might have a unique role as a baserunner or base-stealer? And may otherwise have no function?
Canario doesn't really contribute anything and has no niche role. If Candelario doesn't go to DL, I could imagine PCA could replace Canario just for an occasional base-running situation?
There has also been some reference to Bellinger having some knee issue? I thought he was rested for a game or two recently. Perhaps if a game is a blowout, PCA might cover a couple of innings in CF? Not sure how good his RF defense is, having played it so rarely. But Suzuki is pretty average in RF, maybe PCA would sub in as a defensive replacement when protecting a late lead?
Cubs are in a good position using the guys that they have. So I hardly expect Ross to start benching Tauchman and his patient AB's for PCA. PCA's been in his own deep slump for a while, until yesterday's 4-hit game, so it's not like you want his high-K low-average bat in the lineup.
But yeah, I admit a certain part of me thinks Tauchman has been pretty hits-are-rare lately; maybe giving him a few days off might be good for him? Since 8/12, he's got 13 hitless starts to 9 starts with a hit. He had the big 4-hit game versus Cinci last weekend, but otherwise he's seemed to be a pretty easy out for the last month. It might be fun to try a game or two without Tauchman.
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Speculation from Brett Taylor is that PCA will get some starts due to the advantage his range provides for covering the spacious CFs at Coors and Chase.
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Coors Field is really made for PCA.
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Maybe after watching Corbin Carroll put a hurt on Cubs this weekend, Cubs brass decided to make this move with PCA.
Guess that would be the upside scenario: PCA is Cubs version of Carroll with better defense. Asking a lot offensively. Carroll is 1 1/2 years older than PCA. He came up end of August in 2022 and played regularly in Sept on a club just playing out the season.
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PCA's been in his own deep slump for a while, until yesterday's 4-hit game, so it's not like you want his high-K low-average bat in the lineup.
Not sure about the slump description. I also had been under the impression that he had been struggling lately. But apparently not. This is from an article on PCA's call-up.
"The promotion also comes as Crow-Armstrong – whom people around the Cubs, along with fans, often refer to as PCA – has been on a tear with Iowa. He crushed his second grand slam in a week on Sunday and has hit at a .311 clip with an .859 OPS in his past 10 games at Triple-A. In 34 games with the I-Cubs, PCA has 10 steals, 15 extra-base hits, 22 RBIs, 30 runs and an .829 OPS."
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/pete-crow-armstrong-callup-cubs
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But can he hit for the cycle?
Sorry, I just get irritated when the media gets excited because a player is one hit shy of the cycle. It's a fluke. Someday I want some guy with a double, triple, and home run hit another out of the park, but stop at first base so he can get the cycle. Blah.
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Not sure about the slump description. I also had been under the impression that he had been struggling lately. But apparently not. This is from an article on PCA's call-up.
"The promotion also comes as Crow-Armstrong – whom people around the Cubs, along with fans, often refer to as PCA – has been on a tear with Iowa. He crushed his second grand slam in a week on Sunday and has hit at a .311 clip with an .859 OPS in his past 10 games at Triple-A. In 34 games with the I-Cubs, PCA has 10 steals, 15 extra-base hits, 22 RBIs, 30 runs and an .829 OPS."
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/pete-crow-armstrong-callup-cubs
I think it's fair to say he was in a slump before those big last two games. Average down under .250, tons of Ks (8 in 2 days last week).
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Meghan Montemurro @M_Montemurro
Adbert Alzolay has been put on the 15-day IL with a right forearm strain, retroactive to yesterday.
Michael Fulmer activated from the IL.
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Not sure about the slump description. I also had been under the impression that he had been struggling lately. But apparently not. This is from an article on PCA's call-up....
He's 7/10 in his last 2 games. In previous 15, he was 10/58 with 26 K's.
Hopefully he had his slump, he's come out of it, Saturday-Sunday is his new groove, and he'll be on fire for the Cubs.
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Meghan Montemurro @M_Montemurro
Adbert Alzolay has been put on the 15-day IL with a right forearm strain, retroactive to yesterday.
Michael Fulmer activated from the IL.
Oh, man. Bummer for Adbert, and for the team.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been selected from Triple-A Iowa.
Alexander Canario optioned to Iowa.
LHP Anthony Kay designated for assignment to open a 40-man spot for PCA.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Alzolay said his forearm has been bothering him the last couple weeks but had been able to manage it and keep pitching.
It didn’t feel better after back-to-back games over weekend. Alzolay: “It was just to the point where I wasn't making a lot of competitive pitches out there.”
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Well, it’s nice that Canario got to make big league $$$ for a little while, anyway…
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Better to have Alzolay resting his arm rather than making mediocre appearances in save situations with the possibility of a more serious injury. With luck, he'll be back in top form for the last couple of series.
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Well, it’s nice that Canario got to make big league $$$ for a little while, anyway…
He got an entry into the Baseball Encyclopedia, which is something that callups who never get into a game and then never get back to the majors are left thinking about for the rest of their lives. Still, I hope he comes back and plays some more.
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Moonlight Canario?
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He got an entry into the Baseball Encyclopedia, which is something that callups who never get into a game and then never get back to the majors are left thinking about for the rest of their lives. Still, I hope he comes back and plays some more.
Most recent publication of the Baseball Encyclopedia was 1996.
How about Baseball Reference.
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https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1701379882557559207
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1701618398541885820
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Moonlight Canario?
[/quote
https://www.cnn.com/2012/10/02/sport/baseball-greenberg-second-chance/index.html
No thanks to the Cubs
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Canario's exile was brief - back to warm the bench with Candaelario to the IL. At least he has PCA to talk to this time.
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From a development standpoint, I wonder if hanging around seeing how the big-leaguers operate and talk and practice has some value? Canario probably isn't going to learn how to make contact and not strike out by osmosis. But maybe talking with Bellinger and Hoerner and Candelario and Gomes might give him some tips? Or Kelly?
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It’s fine, but he really needs at-bats having missed almost a full year.
The thing that really bugs me about Ross’ “we’re not developing players now” line - apart from it just being the ultimate “old-school baseball” meathead tagline - is that it makes no sense. It assumes playing a young guy is inherently detrimental to winning.
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PCA starting in CF tonight...c'mon PCA!
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Deeg, I agree that he needs AB. So I'd have preferred he have these weeks at Iowa getting AB's against AAA pitchers.
Not really sure what Hoyer's logic is in having him up. By CBA they are obligated, correct? We've got to have somebody? He and Mervis were the only 40-man position players we've got? If so, not sure why they'd choose Canario over Mervis. Maybe Mervis has had some time in the majors, so they figure nice for Canario to get a look at big-league professionals, and a chance for Canario to get familiar with Kelly? I admit I don't understand it.
I don't see the "old-school meathead" thing, though? Seems to me that Ross is fine with using young guys... when he sees them as having a role. Amaya got used right away, and has been used heavily. Mervis got used a bunch, until he played his way down. PCA got used right away yesterday, and is starting tonight. Wicks has been given full responsibility. Assad. Alzolay. Palencia got significant opportunity early on, until he kind of pitched his way to the back of the bus. Morel has obviously been used a ton. So, yeah, I don't really see any indication that Ross has any aversion to using young players. No assumption that playing a young guy is inherently detrimental to winning.
I think it's more just Canario. I don't think Ross really has identified a role for him yet. And I'm not sure what it should be. I kinda think he's just a roster-filler until a different time unravels or a different need. Or until he has a longer window in AAA to prove himself.
If Happ or Suzuki get injured, maybe then? Maybe at some point take a platoon start from Happ against some LH starter? Maybe get a DH start from Morel, at some point? But at this point I think it's understandable that Happ and Suzuki keep starting. Morel has racked up a bunch of HR's, and whacked the ball a bunch of times yesterday, so maybe he's ready to go on a little hot streak? I guess I just don't really see who Ross should be benching in favor of Canario.
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The other 40-man guy Cubs bypassed is Jared Young—who’s been very good at Iowa of late.
Kind of mystifying that Canario recalled instead of a lefty bat to replace a switch-hitting corner IFer, especially in light of Ross’ non-use of Canario first time around.
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Cubs know the personalities and which guy(s) need what. I trust Cubs to make the right call as to who should be up (and why).
Perhaps Young didn't fit the clubhouse perfectly (tho' I've never heard anything negative about him), perhaps they think Canario will really benefit watching the MLB Cubs work their processes and the wisdom of at least some of the guys who have good Spanish.
Whatever is the reality, it would really be fun for Canario to hit one to the moon in a Cub uni this season!
Both Morel and Canario have holes in their games, however, IF they ever really figure it out, watch out! Both have elite raw talent!
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The other 40-man guy Cubs bypassed is Jared Young—who’s been very good at Iowa of late.
Kind of mystifying that Canario recalled instead of a lefty bat to replace a switch-hitting corner IFer, especially in light of Ross’ non-use of Canario first time around.
thanks reb, had forgotten that Young is on the 40. With Candelario out, that kinda leaves 1B for Bellinger and Wisdom. Both Young and Mervis play some 1B, so Hoyer must feel fine that Wisdom and Bellinger are fine for covering that. Both Young and Mervis are lefties, so against RHP Bellinger is 1b and you've got Tauchman and PCA as lefty OFers. So Young or Mervis would be DH guys, not 1B guys, I guess?
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PCA had a 15% chance of making that play in right center field a few days ago.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1702098002419257775
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To be fair to PCA, HIS chances of doing it were >>> 15%.
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To be fair to PCA, HIS chances of doing it were >>> 15%.
Yeah, his attitude seems to be that he can and should catch everything.
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Justin Steele is having an incredible year, and it turns out he's doing that in spite of his wife to be (and mother of his child) has been going through a horrible illness that went undiagnosed until fairly recently. It's a moving story and both deserve a lot of credit for how they are handling it. Both also give lots of credit to the Cubs for their support as well.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-justin-steele-fiancee-lyme-disease-20230915-7k5fkplku5cs3bcwj4v7drb7v4-story.html?lctg=E4B3A4BF547E25A4F491548395&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fsports%2fcubs%2fct-chicago-cubs-justin-steele-fiancee-lyme-disease-20230915-7k5fkplku5cs3bcwj4v7drb7v4-story.html&utm_campaign=Dont-Miss-News-and-Sports&utm_content=alert
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I want to say I feel sorry for Steele's finance. Having a disease that medicine can not figure out sucks, my wife went through a similar situation in December. It was a bunch of vague symptoms and caused serious issues. Labs, Diagnostic testing, rheumatologists couldn't figure out what was going on. Her symptoms started to improve on their own. I get what they went through.
Chronic Lyme Disease is controversial to say the least. The $2000 dollar test she had isn't FDA approved. The treatments she is having are a great way to bilk money out of people, none of it is FDA approved. Functional Medicine is quackery, ie I'm going to order a bunch of expensive tests and give you a made up diagnosis to buy supplements that I sell for hefty markup.
That article reads more of a failure of medicine and how it leads people down the road to quacks in a search for answers.
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More a failure in educating people than a failure of medicine. IMO.
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More a failure in educating people than a failure of medicine. IMO.
It's a failure of medicine. People start to feel that if we can't give their symptoms a name, that the doctor doesn't believe those symptoms exist and they are in their head, ie postpartum depression in the article. It drives them right to the functional medicine guys, who tell them we'll get to the root cause unlike evidence based medicine. If they can't call Chronic Lyme Disease then it would be adrenal fatigue. The treatment is the same, things that aren't covered by insurance that cost a lot of money that the doctor sells out of their office.
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People have no clue about the limitations in what modern medicine can do for them. Hence the ceaseless advertising for drugs.
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Who was your wife's primary physician? Hope it wasn't that quack in Council Bluffs.
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He's an idiot. She went to other idiots that didn't have any better explanation.
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Marcus Stroman activated off the IL
Daniel Palencia optioned to Iowa
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Yo Yo Ma
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Kramer, is that you?
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Giddy Up
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Good article on Dansby Swanson's impact on the team.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/dansby-swanson-has-been-exactly-what-the-cubs-paid-for/
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Good article on Dansby Swanson's impact on the team.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/dansby-swanson-has-been-exactly-what-the-cubs-paid-for/
Cubs leaders in bWAR are:
Hoerner 4.9
Swanson 4.7
Bellinger 4.2 (about 20 fewer games than Hoerner)
Happ 2.8
Hoerner leads Swanson because of Hoerner’s baserunning value.
Two 5 WAR players in your middle IF is pretty good. A really nice foundation.
What is lacking offensively—to get to next level— is another big thumper bat. Even if Bellinger is re-signed, for sake of discussion, that’s probably still going to be the case.
BA recently did a story about bat speed. Cubs trailers unsurprisingly were Madrigal and departed Barnhart. Madrigal’s bat just doesn’t fit very well at 3B. wRC+ of 84.
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What is lacking offensively—to get to next level— is another big thumper bat. Even if Bellinger is re-signed, for sake of discussion, that’s probably still going to be the case.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=shaw--000mat
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Smyly gets out of a bases-loaded, one-out situation and we're on to the 13th.
It looks like there were two mound visits that inning; is that allowed now?
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Taillon being skipped in the rotation. Lots of reclamation projects on the books for next year among the SP.
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A week or two ago Fangraphs had the Cubs posting a losing record the rest of the way and finishing with 84 wins and I thought they were being unfair. Now we're going to have to split the remainder of our games, which include six against division leaders Atlanta and Milwaukee, just to get that far. I retract my criticism of Fangraphs and their lack of confidence in our team.
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As the pre-mortem begins with the Cubs collapse, I think the most obvious reason for it is gravity. The team is finding its level. Ross’ old-school meathead approach can be a problem - “rest is for losers, ride the guys the guys that got you here” has contributed to the mental and physical breakdowns for sure. But mostly I think it’s just a more accurate picture of where this roster is. Lots of work to be done to make it into a real contender next season.
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I agree that the Cubs decline in production in the last several weeks is more a reversion to the mean than anything else. They have a much better team this year than they had last year. But they played much more poorly in the beginnig of the year than their talent would indicate, and then followed it with several weeks of production that far exceeded their talent level. But it was extremely unlikely that they would continue at that pace through the end of the season. They just aren't that good yet.
That doesn't change the fact that this year's team has much more talent than last year's team, and given a good off season and the state of their upper level minor league system, in my opinion they are likely to be much better next season. Whether or not they will be in the same tier as the Dodgers or Braves is yet to be determined.
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2024 Starting Pitching.
Mooney:
….It appears to be highly likely that Stroman will opt into his $21 million salary for next season.
….As long as Hendricks stays healthy, it looks like a foregone conclusion that the Cubs will pick up their $16.5 million option on his contract rather than pay him a $1.5 million buyout
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Canario is the 4th Cub in the past 50 years to hit a grand slam for his 1st major league home run.
Champ Summers
Kevin Tapani
Taylor Davis
Alexander Canario
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And I suddenly feel really old realizing that Summers barely made the ‘50 years’ cut…
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When Suzuki showed up in camp with substantial muscle, I thought that this might give him the added power to become a true impact player. Didn't work that way for the first half of the season. But in the last half, he has turned things around, both with added contact and with impressive power.
He might end up an impact player on a good team. I hope the Cubs become that good team.
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2024 Starting Pitching.
Mooney:
….It appears to be highly likely that Stroman will opt into his $21 million salary for next season.
….As long as Hendricks stays healthy, it looks like a foregone conclusion that the Cubs will pick up their $16.5 million option on his contract rather than pay him a $1.5 million buyout
Not sure how I feel about that. Part of me thinks the preferred case would be to sign a single big-ticket ace, if such a hypothetical man actually exists? NOT having Stroman/Hendricks back would clear $38.2. *IF* you exchanged Hendricks+Stroman for Ace, you could then roll a rotation with Ace-Steele-Assad-Wicks-Taillon, with Horton approaching, and with Smyly and Wesneski and Ben Brown as depth possibilities.
Alternatively, if you kept Hendricks but still replaced Stroman with an ace, you could then have Ace-Steele-Assad-Hendricks-Wicks, with Taillon as 6th starter, with Horton approaching, Smyly as crisis man, and Ben Brown as hope-he-breaks-out depth?
I'm thinking that *IF* Stroman and Hendricks both come back, Hoyer will be unlike to sign a big-ticket ace.
- Lux-wise, Stroman $23.7, Taillon 17, Hendricks 16, Smyly 9.5. That's $66.2 burned, with $39.7 on Stroman/Hendricks.
Cubs have kinda never had a surplus of starters. Stroman-Taillon-Hendricks-Steele-Assad-Wicks, that would be 6, before Horton or Brown, and without including Steele or obviously Wesneski. Between young guys whose arms we don't want to kill, plus old veterans whose arms tend to go dead with usage, I wonder if you wouldn't actually want to plan in some two-week rests for each guy? Rather than wanting 32 starts for 5 guys, what if you planned 25 starts for 6 or 7 guys? Not necessarily a 6-day rotation like Wicks is used to from minors. But what if Taillon is long relief early on, but then you figure to give Stroman starts 11+12 off, Steele 13 + 14; Wicks 15+16; Assad 17+18; Hendricks 19+20; Taillon 21+22; Stroman 23+24; Steele 25+26, Wicks 27+28; Assad 29+30?
Basically after the spring, avoid having anybody go 20 starts without getting a two-week rest? Perhaps after the first half, maybe avoid having anybody go even a dozen starts straight without skipping a start or two?
With old guys, I'm remembering like Jon Lester, it would often seem that even if he started strong, by mid-June he was dragging, and there was dead-arm talk leading into the all-star break. I think Steele's DL may have actually been a blessing-in-disguise this season. I also wonder if Assad, after almost two months now in rotation, whether he might now be hitting dead-arm world? Maybe just proactively plan in more two-week rests, and make sure nobody is ever going 20 starts without a two-week break?
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The Stroman opt-out/in decision is a fascinating one. Doesn’t seem to be a slam-dunk either way. And frankly I’m not sure which I’d prefer, either.
If Craig’s mythical “ace” is out there, it’s probably Yamamoto Yoshinobu, who Jed was just in Japan to watch. You can never know how NPB numbers will translate to MLB, but Yamamoto has been better than Senga over there and Senga has been an ace-caliber SP this season. Indisputably the best pitcher in Japan over the past five seasons. The only obvious yellow flag with him is his size, but MLB teams do care about that with starters.
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I don't see how a Stroman opt-in is anything but a positive for the Cubs, no matter how it eventually turns out in retrospect.
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Agreed.
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Jon Greenberg has a good column providing some perspective to this season.
https://theathletic.com/4880688/2023/09/20/chicago-cubs-playoff-race-pirates/
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If the Cubs lose today, they will have to go 3-6 the rest of the way to have a winning season, and 2-7 to break even. And six of their remaining games are with Atlanta and Milwaukee. Has a team ever gone from 10 games under .500 to 10 games over, and then crashed right back to under .500 to finish the year?
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I blame the announcing crew for the "collapse." For a couple weeks, they were praising Tauchman for his play this year, suddenly Tauchman was sitting the bench or getting pinch hit for by a prospect without a major league hit. Then they were praising Leiter, quickly became a dumpster fire. Then Bellinger and suddenly his reliable bat becomes silent. Then it was how Steele was going to be the Cy Young this year, after two disastrous starts...not any more.
And I blame me, they do much much better when I don't watch. My fault.
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There are a lot of reasons this is crumbling at the moment, but anyone pretending Ross isn't part of the problem is kidding themselves.
Nice guy. Not the manager to take the team to the next level.
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Stroman scheduled to start tomorrow.
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Another nice column by Jon Greenberg.
https://theathletic.com/4890791/2023/09/22/chicago-cubs-colorado-rockies-playoff-race/
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Suzuki slash line second half of season:
306-362-572
254 PAs
Impact bat.
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Among the teams fighting for the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards, the Cubs have, by far, the toughest schedule for the rest of the season, playing the Braves (100-56, the best record in MLB) for three games and the division leading Brewers (88-68) for three games.
In stark contrast, the Diamondbacks play the Yankees (78-71) once, the White Sox (60-96) three times, and then the Astros (85-71) three games. The Marlins play the Mets (71-85) three games and the Pirates (74-82) three games. The Reds play the Guardians (74-83) two games and the Cardinals (68-88) three games.
If the Cubs make it into the playoffs in this last week, they will certainly have to earn it. Fingers crossed.
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Neither the Braves or Brewers have anything to play for. You just have to hope they’re mailing it in.
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I noticed over the weekend that my payout had posted for taking the Cubs OVER 77.5 wins this season back in the spring...which was nice...
Shoulda put it all on Chiefs -13...
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I figure the Cubs probably need to go 4-2 this week. If Cubs go 3-3 (or worse), I'd think Marlins will have a good shot for 4-2 and grab the last spot.
I also like the 4-2 scenario, because I think 86 wins was my pre-season prediction! :):). Not sure I've ever gotten one on the nose.
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I'd sign up for Cubs going 4-2 this week in a heartbeat!
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Credit to BN for noting it, but Suzuki has been an absolute beast. 1.089 OPS (3rd in baseball) since August 1. And the peripherals are there to back it up - his full-season numbers are good, but look a bit unlucky. No reason to think he can’t be at least pretty good offensively over the next couple years if he stays healthy.
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In the past 9 seasons the Cubs have had a winning record in 7 of them.
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According to ESPN analytics, the Cubs have a 40% chance of winning tonight, the Diamondbacks a 50% chance, the desperate Reds a 52% chance, and the Marlins a 54% chance.
Too bad they don't break ties on the field as opposed to using past games. I used to love reading stories on how 2, 3, or even 4 team ties would be broken.
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According to ESPN analytics, the Cubs have a 40% chance of winning tonight, the Diamondbacks a 50% chance, the desperate Reds a 52% chance, and the Marlins a 54% chance.
Too bad they don't break ties on the field as opposed to using past games. I used to love reading stories on how 2, 3, or even 4 team ties would be broken.
The whole philosophy used to justify the current 3 wild cards was that some teams needed time to gel or get healthy. Shouldn't that same logic prevail regarding season series with a specific team?
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I absolutely hate the new no-game-163 rules and also the additional wild card teams. I've hated all the playoff expansions except the one that changed things from having one wild card team on an even footing with division winners, to two wild card teams having to play a game to get to the level of the division winners.
Now they've gone and ruined that and put one of the division winners on the same level as a wild card team again. Even if we sneak in as the third WC team, I still won't like this system.
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Get off my lawn!
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
With four games to go, the Cubs’ odds to make the playoffs are at 29.4%, according to FanGraphs, while the Marlins’ odds sit at 69.3%.
After the Cubs swept the Giants on Sept. 6, their FanGraphs playoff odds were at 92.4%.
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Note to self: Stroman coming back may not be a blessing.
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Cubs have given out fewest intentional walks in the majors——5 IBB.
Angels have given out 41 IBB, most in majors.
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AZ Phil on Cubs 2023 CBT situation:
“the Cubs will be paying performance bonuses post-2023 to Yan Gomes (either $250K or $500K based on games started at catcher) and Smyly ($2M based on IP). Also, Cody Bellinger gets a $1M bonus if he wins N. L. Comeback Player of the Year Award (which is very likely).
So with the $3M+ in performance bonuses still to be paid, the Cubs 2023 payroll AAV will likely end up just slightly under the 2023 MLB $232M CBT threshold, possibly within $1M (TBD).”
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Who is more weak, pathetic, and impotent now - Stroman or Hendricks?..
I don't see a world where it makes sense to have both Stroman and Hendricks back next season. We need to improve the top of the rotation and miss more bats, and we're already flush with strike-throwing #3-5 starters.
We need to bring them both back. Assad, Wicks, Wesneski, Brown, Horton are all going to be innings limited.
Drop almost $40 million on those two and you can kiss any meaningful rotation improvement from the outside goodbye....
Good discussion.
1. I completely agree with deeg: if you're burning $40 on both, you're not likely to sign meaningful rotation improvement from the outside. Then you'd just be bringing the same gang of 5th-starters types back, with improvement needing to come internally. (Which is well possible.). I'd much rather save that $39 million and apply it to somebody new who might have some upside.
2. I get Jeff's point, though: *IF* it's a given that you aren't going to add anybody promising from outside anyway, that there just aren't any good upside guys available, then why not bring them both back? Assad, Wicks, Wesneski, Brown, Horton are all going to be innings limited, that's a fair point.
-I wonder if Steele might not need to be, also? He got worked very heavily this season, and seemed exhausted at times late in season; and seemed to get exhausted more quickly. This even in a season where he perhaps fortuitously got several weeks of rest on the DL. I think they'd be foolish to look for 30 6-inning starts from Steele.
Basically *IF* you can sign somebody better, I'd rather sign somebody else good other than both Stroman and Hendricks. With their combined money, there might be somebody interesting, perhaps? But if you aren't going to add anybody anyway, I'd be OK with bringing one or both back. But yeah, somehow I'd like to have somebody new who at least MIGHT be different and better.
As deeg has suggested, how about the Japanese pitcher?
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To Jeff's original question, what if you brought one back but not both? No-brainer for me, Stroman is worse now and I'd rather he goes away. Hendricks can get by doing what he does; but as Stroman's stuff is declining, I fear he's going to be ineffective more consistently.
Stroman is $9.2 more expensive in lux tax. Hendricks is $14.5 difference between stay or go, same for lux. Stroman is $21 if he stays, with a $23.7 lux tax. Maybe we're blasting way beyond lux line anyway. But an extra $9.2 could help with relief or whatever...
Obviously Cubs gave the option to Stroman, so we're probably stuck with him. He's got $21 secure, not sure it makes any sense for him to walk away from that?
Or, maybe it does make sense to walk? Maybe he still thinks he can get a 2- or 3-year deal from somebody, a team willing to bet that he can still fit into the 3.5-4 ERA window for a couple more years? A team willing to trust that badness since late June was all injury, and that he'll be fine with a fresh season and a fresh start? Stroman might much prefer the security of a $45/3 type deal over $21/1? If so, I hope it's not us making that offer.
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What if they do just bring the same crowd back. Could they get better short-term that way? What might the upside be? And might the be better long-term?
Hendricks missed a bunch of season.
Stroman was gone or awful for over 3 months.
Taillon was terrible, maybe he'll be more mediocre next year?
Using Wicks more might help.
Using Assad more might help.
Horton might help.
Seems possible that even without going outside for rotation help, that the rotation might do better next year? And that there might also be some surplus to help the bullpen?
Second, maybe just letting Hendricks and Stroman play out their $40 of lux next year, that's $40M to spend for 2025. Maybe there will be some more desirable more-ace-approaching possibilities a year later? And maybe *IF* the farm system is progressing, they'll be in better shape to focus their dollars? Not saying that's likely, but not impossible that waiting anothe year will have better options than may be avialable this year?
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That sounds like a recipe for mediocrity to me.
There are in fact plenty of upside guys available. And actually two “the Japanese pitcher”. In addition to Yamamoto - who most scouts think does have TORP potential - Imanaga Shota is a very interesting prospect as well.
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That sounds like a recipe for mediocrity to me.
There are in fact plenty of upside guys available. And actually two “the Japanese pitcher”. In addition to Yamamoto - who most scouts think does have TORP potential - Imanaga Shota is a very interesting prospect as well.
Thanks. Agree, just bringing Stroman and Hendricks back is boring. Still, you never know. *IF* Steele, Assad, Wicks, Horton, and Brown are all exploding, and you sit with Stroman and Hendricks as 4th-5th guys, you might do worse!
I haven't checked any free-agency lists. If there are plenty of upside guys available, I like that a lot.
Still Hendricks is the Cubs decision; Stroman makes his call. If he says he wants his $21/1, you're stuck with him.
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To Jeff's original question, what if you brought one back but not both? No-brainer for me, Stroman is worse now and I'd rather he goes away. Hendricks can get by doing what he does; but as Stroman's stuff is declining, I fear he's going to be ineffective more consistently.
Presumably your conclusion that Stroman's stuff is declining is based on his very poor second half (during some portion of which he was injured or coming back prematurely from the injury) even though he was one of the best pitchers in the league his first half. But Taillon's substantial improvement in his second half (3.89 ERA, 1.82 WHIP) doesn't seem to count.
I don't understand the certainty that Stroman will be much closer to his second half than his first half. Maybe Stroman's age is a factor, but it's hard to imagine that just suddenly kicked in half way through a season, especially given his legendary conditioning.
Nor do I understand the assumption that Taillon's first half is likely to be more predicative of his future performance than his second half (which is reflective of his performance before coming to the Cubs). Seems to me that it's not that unusual for pitchers (or players) to perform poorly when first coming to a club with a large free agent contract.
Your views on Stroman and Taillon seem a tad pessimistic for someone who considers himself an optimist when it comes to the Cubs.
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From my quick assessments of the stats, the Cubs over the course of the season were strong offensively (top 4-5 in the NL) and were average with respect to starting and relief pitching. Their offensive strength might be overblown a bit from a consistency standpoint due to their propensity for having periodic wild scoring binges. To be highly successful next season, Hoyer will need to figure out how to maintain or ideally improve the offense with the likely departure of Bellinger. And he will need oversee the improvement of both our rotation and our bullpen. I don't specific recommendations at this point how to accomplish that, and to some extent that will depend on things difficult to project like the development of our young ML talent and player health. Still, Hoyer should have money to spend and some expendable minor league talent to accomplish the above goals.
I have gained respect for Hoyer as a result of how the organization has improved and how his decision making has been pretty sound. I am reasonably confident that he will make the necessary moves for us to contend in 2024.
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Just to stay status quo is a big offseason.
To improve is going to require a really great off season for pitching and the offense. It is going to mean Hoyer is going to have to spend at the top of the market and the owners are going to have to let them get well above the luxury tax, especially if Hendricks and Stroman come back.
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Stroman had an ERA of 2.88 thru 20 starts this season. That’s about 2/3 of a season worth of starts. He was a CY candidate until the next three very bad starts and IL stint. And maybe the three starts had something to do with the health issues that put him on the IL.
Stroman has a career ERA+ of 116. That identical to CC Sabathia career. At a 117 ERA+ you see guys like Gaylord Perry and Andy Pettitte. So, this guy is really good.
Yeah, Stroman will be 33 in 2024 and there’s a question mark about him because of that final 1/3. The question mark is why he likely returns to the Cubs.
Agree with Jeff that this likely is a very good thing for the Cubs, having him back.
Sure, all for signing a quality SP from Japan like Yamamoto who’s in his mid-20s or maybe a lower-priced age 30 guy like Imanaga if Cubs can do that. But, otherwise, like the way rotation sets up for 2024. There’s some depth and very plausible that Horton and Ben Brown are important factors at some point in 2024. Not too excited about shelling out sizable FA dollars for a Sonny Gray or Aaron Nola or Giolito or Blake Snell.
If Cubs are going to spend for older FA pitching, might think about Josh Hader for the bullpen. Sure, he’s going to decline before too long but still nasty and like the idea of Alzolay setting up and Merryweather behind Alzolay. Might actually have the makings of a strong bullpen with a back-end like that. I know that Cubs want Wesneski to be a starter but I like him more as a reliever if the rotation can spare him. Like him as a middle reliever who can give you a couple power innings.
Cubs likely are going to be above CBT in 2024. This is the time to do that and front office has a history of doing that when the times call for that.
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https://theathletic.com/4919474/2023/10/01/cubs-chairman-tom-ricketts-payroll-david-ross/?source=emp_shared_article
While Tommy Boy is pretty neutral on the Cubs going over the Luxury Tax.
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Yeah, would have liked to see Ricketts less circumspect about going over CBT in 2024. But, he’s generally a cautious fella publicly about most everything.
Ricketts was on broadcast with Boog and JD on Sunday and was asked about Hendricks coming back. Seemed like he wanted to say yes, he’ll be back, but couldn’t bring himself to be anything other than cautious.
Obviously, Cubs can’t do what has to be done w/out going over CBT. The new Happ and Hoerner contracts eat up the Heyward expiration money.
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Brett Taylor heard what Ricketts had to say and believes that they will go over the CBT. Time will tell.
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I think we have an excellent pitching coach, but I hope baseball begins rethinking the current strategy of having starters just go five or six innings, no third time through the lineup, and having relievers throw as hard as they can for one inning. I don't think that the philosophy is good for the game or the pitchers.
The last couple of years we have seen the number of relievers go on the DL, some needing TJS, at a remarkable rate. I think a lot of that is because throwing hard 3 days in a row for one inning is way too hard on the arm. It also contributes to foolishness. A couple of weeks we had a pitcher come in and get through the inning in 7 pitches. He was still yanked for another pitcher the next inning. That's nuts.
Good starters should be able to go 7 or 8 innings if not 9. If they barely can get through 5, maybe they really aren't starter material. The idea that pitchers shouldn't face a lineup 3 times is not logical. Will a good offense show up against a starter third time through, possibly, but it's probably because the pitcher is tiring a little, not because the hitters have becomes overly comfortable with spotting spin, arm slot, or speed. The reason I hate this is something we've all seen. Finding the one that sucks. At some point it has to dawn on somebody that often your tired starter is still 100% better than the well rested middle reliever in the pen who hasn't had a good outing in weeks.
I think the philosophies being followed now contributed heavily to our demise this year. We lost valuable relievers down the stretch, had to rely on iffy relievers, and our starting staff followed the relievers into the abyss.
JMO
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I’m sure PTR will go into the CBT when the Cubs are “championship contenders”, just like Reinsdorf and the Bulls.
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That just isn’t the way pitchers are trained anymore. They are staying closer to their max velocity and they can’t maintain that long and it also leads to more injuries.
The problem with Rickett’s comments is the Cubs just to stay status quo and bring back Bellinger will put the Cubs over the luxury tax. To actually close the gap with the abrewers they have to go well over the luxury tax. To catch the Braves/Dodgers they have to spend Padres/Mets money and have it not blow up in your face. They should have finished off the tank.
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I agree that's not how pitchers are trained anymore. That's the problem. They're being treated as disposable parts.
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I couldn't disagree more, Blue. For one thing, competing for the postseason with a good team was fun for me as a Cub fan. For another, I think there's a good possibility that we win the division next season.
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Presumably your conclusion that Stroman's stuff is declining is based on his very poor second half (during some portion of which he was injured or coming back prematurely from the injury) even though he was one of the best pitchers in the league his first half.
But Taillon's substantial improvement in his second half (3.89 ERA, 1.82 WHIP) doesn't seem to count.
I don't understand the certainty that Stroman will be much closer to his second half than his first half. Maybe Stroman's age is a factor, but it's hard to imagine that just suddenly kicked in half way through a season, especially given his legendary conditioning.
Nor do I understand the assumption that Taillon's first half is likely to be more predicative of his future performance than his second half (which is reflective of his performance before coming to the Cubs). Seems to me that it's not that unusual for pitchers (or players) to perform poorly when first coming to a club with a large free agent contract.
Your views on Stroman and Taillon seem a tad pessimistic for someone who considers himself an optimist when it comes to the Cubs.
Ron, If I was predicting, for Taillon I'd project a 4.3-type ERA, somewhere in the 4.1-4.6 ERA range, with ERA+ in the 95-100 range. He was 4.84 ERA on season; 4.6 FIP, (I'm just lazily using baseball reference stats); and like you note 3.98 in his better half. His ERA+'s the last 3 years have been 93, 101, and 100. Teams can win 90 games if their worst stater posts a low-4's ERA. But he hasn't been meaningfully above average since 2018; so I kinda assume he'll be around average if things go well. if they don't go well, he could fade below average.
The hope when he came over was that his Yankees HR's were Yankee-stadium sources, and away from New York the HR's would drop way off. But he's a HR factory, 1.6 HR/9, hard to have a sub-3 ERA with that. Maybe he can drop that a little bit, but that just seems to be a part of who he is.
Looking at his Fangraphs PitchType stats, https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jameson-taillon/11674/stats?position=P, every one of his pitches was slower this year than it's ever been. Fastball first time sub-94. Don't think slider velocity means much, because he intentionally added the slower sweeper. But fangraphs has Taillon's slider >5mph slower than Yankees slider, and 7-9 mph slower than his meaningfully-above-average Pirates era. Cutter, curve, change, those are all slower than they've ever been, too.
General principle, most pitchers have their stuff decline as they start cruising along in their 30's. Stroman turns 33 in May, Taillon will be 32 next season. As with Taillon, per Fangraphs, Stroman's main pitches were slower this year than before. Fastball was never ever this slow; slider never this slow; cutter never this slow; only his change is as fast as it sometimes was. Age happens, guys get slower, stuff declines. Are they huge declines? No. But he'll be 33 next season with >1300 big-league innings. It's the norm, not the exception, to have some level of decline. Perhaps more so in absence of having some signature putaway pitch.
I don't project Stroman to be Cy Young or sustain a sub-3 ERA. If I was guessing, I'd guess he'd come in around 3.9-ish ballpark next year, somewhere in the 3.5-4.2 area, if things go well. Not bad, for a middle/back-rotation guy. But not exactly an ace or anything like that. And of course things don't always go well. He's had 3 injuries in his two year with the Cubs. As the innings roll well beyond 1000, I think that tends to happen more.
I'n not assuming he'll be as awful as he was since the Cardinals game in June. From that point he was dreadful, if he sustained that for a full year he'd be out of the league. But yeah, I'd guess Stroman a little below 4.0, and Taillon somewhere above it.
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I couldn't disagree more, Blue. For one thing, competing for the postseason with a good team was fun for me as a Cub fan. For another, I think there's a good possibility that we win the division next season.
I’m done discounting the Brewers. The Brewers are just a good team.
Being .500 and competing for a wildcard just isn’t that fun for me. I think some of it is selling off the World Series team. Some of it is dislike of Pete Ricketts. Some of it is thinking the Cubs got exactly what they wanted, a perfectly ok team that stayed below the luxury tax. I am at the point where the Cubs need to earn my interest in them back.
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The Brewers also have one of the top two prospects in the minors, and he’s likely ML-ready next year…
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The Brewers are a good team, but they’ll regress some if they don’t manage to keep Counsell.
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Being .500 and competing for a wildcard just isn’t that fun for me. I think some of it is selling off the World Series team. Some of it is dislike of Pete Ricketts. Some of it is thinking the Cubs got exactly what they wanted, a perfectly ok team that stayed below the luxury tax. I am at the point where the Cubs need to earn my interest in them back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FaLLI5laso
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Being .500 and competing for a wildcard just isn’t that fun for me. I think some of it is selling off the World Series team. Some of it is dislike of Pete Ricketts. Some of it is thinking the Cubs got exactly what they wanted, a perfectly ok team that stayed below the luxury tax. I am at the point where the Cubs need to earn my interest in them back.
Are you saying that you wanted the Cubs to have resigned Bryant, Baez and Rizzo at the type of contracts that they each got, and still think that they should have?
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I would have kept Bryant and Rizzo. It probably was the right choice to let them all walk. Once they let everybody go, I’d have done a full tank. The problem with Cubs is they didn’t and know they are stuck in the middle. The only way out is to spend a lot and that has risks. The owner and GM don’t seem to keen on spending so I don’t know what they are doing.
We just have different opinions on what is fun. After watching a really great team that is what I want. I’m just not interested in a mediocre/OK team that needs a lot of things to break right to contend.
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…..We just have different opinions on what is fun. After watching a really great team that is what I want. I’m just not interested in a mediocre/OK team that needs a lot of things to break right to contend.
Living in the D.C. area I know a bunch of Orioles fans. Those fans went thru a lot of very lean seasons in recent years, stayed on board as rabid fans, and now get the emotional rewards of a 100 win team. They earned that by not picking and choosing what season would get their interest and what season would not get their interest. Many Cubs fans, of course, did the same in the years running up to the WC.
Of course, it’s totally up to each person how they want to invest in their fandom. Nobody really cares how somebody else wants to do that or not do that.
Personally, I am enjoying the delight that these Orioles fans are getting now after paying their dues and maintaining rabid interest during the lean years. Sure, let the fair weather fans join in the fun. The more the merrier. But the dues-paying Orioles fans know the difference.
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Paul Sullivan has a column on "Clues for the Chicago Cubs’ late-season collapse were right in front of our eyes all along." It's not a bad column, but it's classic Sullivan, a combination of legitimate and useful observations that are tainted by at least one questionable claim not particularly accurate, but it's there because it supports his proposition.
In support of his statement that "4. Swanson and Christopher Morel, two of the biggest pieces of the lineup, could not get on track after the All-Star break," Sullivan said: "Morel had the season’s signature moment — the walk-off home run against the White Sox on Aug. 16 — but hit .231 with a 32% strikeout rate in the second half, 10th-worst among qualified hitters."
That is true enough, but during the Cubs' collapse, it was a different story. During the last 28 days of the season, Morel had a .932 OPS (while striking out 22%, not great but not horrible for his production). That certainly does not support the claim that he shared in responsibility for the collapse.
I would appreciate Sullivan so much more if he didn't stoop to this sort of thing.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-collapse-jed-hoyer-20231006-rvpokljgvvel3oci6qeaszc6li-story.html?lctg=E4B3A4BF547E25A4F491548395&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fsports%2fcubs%2fct-chicago-cubs-collapse-jed-hoyer-20231006-rvpokljgvvel3oci6qeaszc6li-story.html&utm_campaign=Dont-Miss-News-and-Sports&utm_content=alert
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I think bullpen MIA's and some of Ross' odd lineup and game decisions contributed more than any one player's decline in hitting or defense.
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It's pretty weird looking at the numbers. The Cubs offense (in terms of runs scored) was fine over the last month. The pitching overall was about the same as it was all season (based on ERA and WHIP). No doubt, the bullpen was worn down and they couldn't hold a lead. But the Cubs overall really didn't fall apart statistically, and comparisons to 1969 seem way off base.
The basic problem is they didn't quite have the overall talent to make the postseason. IMO, there's no shame in that. But there will be if we're saying the same thing a year from now.
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Cubs OF offense was really, really good in 2023.
Cubs OF in the aggregate had 125 wRC+ which was #3 in majors. Cubs were actually closer to Braves at #1 (129 wRC+) than to Dodgers at #4 (120 wRC+).
Of course, Bellinger offense in CF was a big part but Cubs also #4 in RF and tied for #7 in LF.
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The Trib has an article on the Cubs' up the middle infield combo, Swanson & Hoerner, each of whom is nominated for a gold glove. Here are some excerpts:
"Hoerner excelled on plays to his left, where he stole plenty of hits. His eight outs above average (OAA) in that direction were tied for the most among major-league infielders, and his 12 defensive runs saved (DRS) were tied for the most among NL second basemen."
"Swanson’s 20 OAA led all players this year, while his 18 DRS were the most among big-league shortstops and tied for fifth among all positions.
He was notably elite on balls he came in on, recording a major-league-best 11 OAA, and when going to his right, where his glove work and athleticism produced eight OAA — tied for tops among shortstops — and created numerous highlight-reel plays."
Those seem like pretty darned impressive stats.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-dansby-swanson-nico-hoerner-20231103-uuzipdb7djh53h2si2qz6n4equ-story.html?lctg=E4B3A4BF547E25A4F491548395&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fsports%2fcubs%2fct-chicago-cubs-dansby-swanson-nico-hoerner-20231103-uuzipdb7djh53h2si2qz6n4equ-story.html&utm_campaign=Dont-Miss-News-and-Sports&utm_content=alert
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We would be fools to mess with that config anytime in the near future. They are as good as it gets in the field.
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Something there is no stat for: how often Bellinger kept the line moving by not k-ing or hitting the ball hard.
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There’s probably a reason there is no stat for that.
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Swanson and Hoerner both win Gold Gloves.
https://www.facebook.com/Cubs
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Deservedly
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And Ian Happ makes it 3 Gold Gloves for the 2023 Cubs. His second in a row. Who would have predicted this a few short years ago?
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=887248546095883&set=a.281249310029146
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Used to be that, inexplicably, OFers and corner IFers had to be pretty good hitters to get a boost in gold glove consideration.
But Brenton Doyle just won NL CF gold glove with a 52 OPS+
If PCA can get close to 400 PAs in 2024, could be four Cubs gold glove winners in 2024. Maybe even five gold gloves if Bellinger re-signs as a 1B.
Would that count in measuring whether Cubs position players are good enough for a World Series team?
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I’m not sure I buy Happ as a Gold Glove LF but congrats to him just the same.
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It is the first time in history that 3 Cubs won Gold Gloves in the same season.
https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/ian-happ-nico-hoerner-dansby-swanson-cubs-gold-gloves/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%20Manual&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Rt3b4i5yqm1q8HP_SNHGBX9nzVbEDslBW9Qib_0y5BPvgH2kC88-YKh4
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While I am amazed that Happ won another GG, having 3 GGs on the team must make the Cubs a relatively attractive destination for pitchers if the money is in the same general area.
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Bellinger won a Silver Slugger in the UT role…
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"Experts" say that Cubs, Yankees, and Giants in on Bellinger.
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Did you know that the 83-win 2023 Cubs had the identical Pythagorean as the 97-win 2015 Cubs that went to the NLCS?
90-72 in 2015 and 90-72 in 2023.
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Author says that the big concern GM's have about Bellinger is the hard hit rate. What was Rizzo's hard hit rate? I seem to recall he also choked up and just tried to make contact when he had two strikes.
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Author says that the big concern GM's have about Bellinger is the hard hit rate. What was Rizzo's hard hit rate? I seem to recall he also choked up and just tried to make contact when he had two strikes.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case?partnerId=zh-20231115-1089413-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20231115-1089413-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=23XelHviu0z6kMlsX8plfmM7WEf0LMlPnZCxnUWUs%2F4aXL64GDAhN%2B2KfVq91XOc&bt_ts=1700057034969
Author of what? I guess I missed something.
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Perhaps that will be to Cubs advantage and the market on Bellinger won't be crazy? Think he makes so much sense for the Cubs, *IF* his price doesn't go way crazy. You never know, one or two teams can make it go crazy. But, it's not impossible that it won't, and Hoyer will get him for a very long and expensive deal, but not unreasonably crazy?
I think it's also fair to expect he won't come close to his 23 numbers again. Obviously he outproduced what anybody should expect moving forward.
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Giants need and want a star and they’ve finished second for a lot of guys. Bellringer would make a lot of sense for them.
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Thanks for the link Curt. Very interesting article.
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If you sacrifice your hard hit rate with 2 strikes and thereby have incredible success in getting on base in that situation, that hardly seems like a negative.
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I believe Bellinger is more than capable of sustaining his ‘23 production levels…or at least being in the neighborhood…
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This surprised me. I had not seen it reported before.
The Cubs’ bullpen led the NL in strikeout rate and ranked third in the Majors, behind only the Astros (26.3%) and Mariners (26.1%). Excluding the shortened 2020 campaign, the 2023 Cubs ranked third in team history in K-rate, trailing the '17 (26.3%) and '16 (26.2%) bullpen groups.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgzGwJvlCLTMlSBgHHFltxRSkWvrR
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This surprised me. I had not seen it reported before.
...The Cubs’ bullpen led the NL in strikeout rate and ranked third in the Majors...
That's interesting. We really did have a lot of K guys.
I wonder how that will shift this year? Could (should) be really good again, I'd think?
Natural reversion to the mean will probably pull that back a little. There will be personnel adjustments too, of course. And also possible that some guys will adjust their approach too? Might a Palencia be more effective if he threw more strikes, accepted more contact, but walked less and had some shorter innings? Seeing how the bullpen shakes out will be really interesting.