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General Category => Bleacher Bums Forum => Topic started by: Dave23 on April 04, 2012, 12:17:46 pm


Title: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on April 04, 2012, 12:17:46 pm
Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 12:37:27 pm
Since the season hasn't opened yet, can I change my guess to 88 wins?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on April 05, 2012, 12:38:56 pm
Why, just so you can be first on the list?  This isn't the trivia leaderboard, ya know.  :)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 12:43:48 pm
I'm gettin' the fever...move me up to 28 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 01:08:22 pm
Why, just so you can be first on the list?  This isn't the trivia leaderboard, ya know.  :)

That has nothing to do with it.  I think keeping Lendy on the roster is worth at least two games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on April 05, 2012, 01:13:27 pm
So it is written...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 01:24:03 pm
So it is done.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on April 05, 2012, 01:31:39 pm
You guys watch the Ten Commandments lately?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 01:33:40 pm
If they had, they would have gotten the quote right.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 01:38:10 pm
So Let It Be Written,
So Let It Be Done.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on April 05, 2012, 01:39:33 pm
Or as George Patton said it, "As it was written, so it shall be done."
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 01:43:29 pm
Patton never said that.  It's too long a sentence.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on April 05, 2012, 02:22:38 pm
Nuts.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 02:25:36 pm
Of course, Patton's best line is kinda long: I don't want you to die for your country.  I want you to make some other dumb bastard die for his.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 02:25:41 pm
Patton didn't say that either.  Too short a sentence.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 02:26:35 pm
I think Nuts was what some general said when asked to surrender during the Battle of the Bulge.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 05, 2012, 03:03:09 pm
I believe that was Omar Bradley.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 03:14:55 pm
General Anthony Clement McAuliffe (July 2, 1898 – August 11, 1975) was the United States Army general who commanded the 101st Airborne Division troops defending Bastogne, Belgium during the Battle of the Bulge in World War II. He is famous for his single-word reply to a German surrender ultimatum: "Nuts!"
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 05, 2012, 03:17:25 pm
dave it right.  It was not Bradley but McAuliffe.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2012, 03:18:06 pm
I cut and pasted out of Wiki

Unlike Curt, I wasn't there.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on April 05, 2012, 04:07:19 pm
For the record, I knew it wasn't Patton when I posted it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 05, 2012, 04:08:55 pm
For the record, I knew it wasn't Patton when I posted it.

Too late, DMF.  You've been identified as needing special help.  Report to the library after school.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on April 07, 2012, 02:56:17 pm
58 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 07, 2012, 03:49:56 pm

57 wins. 

57-105 should get the Cubs the first overall pick in the 2013 MLB Entry Draft.

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on April 07, 2012, 05:41:50 pm
65
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Scoop on April 07, 2012, 07:11:52 pm
68
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on April 07, 2012, 11:18:41 pm
69  just like the number
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 16, 2012, 12:55:27 pm
Prediction on another board is 3-159.  LOL
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on April 16, 2012, 01:14:11 pm
So that's where JBN has been . . .
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 16, 2012, 01:20:41 pm
heh
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on April 16, 2012, 06:11:03 pm
So that's where JBN has been . . .

I figured he was so disgusted by the positive vibes the hiring of Theo created here that he could not stand it here anymore, and that he will be back once the honeymoon is over and folks start bashing Theo, Jed and Sveum.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 16, 2012, 06:12:10 pm
Ron...we have started bashing them.  Pay attention!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on May 20, 2012, 07:13:41 pm
The Cubs have now played 25% of the season and are on pace for 59 wins.  Nobody guessed that low.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ray on May 20, 2012, 08:40:35 pm
The Cubs have now played 25% of the season and are on pace for 59 wins.  Nobody guessed that low.

Wow, I never would have thought the board would have been overly optimistic  Sort of ironic and sad.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on May 21, 2012, 12:10:42 am
I had 14 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on May 21, 2012, 12:25:45 am
Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on May 21, 2012, 03:26:16 am
The Cubs have now played 25% of the season and are on pace for 59 wins.  Nobody guessed that low.

Dave never updated the list.  In my post on April 7th (still there second from the last post on page 1 of this topic),  I predicted that they'd finish 57-105.

see:

57 wins. 

57-105 should get the Cubs the first overall pick in the 2013 MLB Entry Draft.


Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on May 21, 2012, 07:10:02 am
Nobody took mO and me seriously.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on May 21, 2012, 07:12:10 am
I do now, Curt.  Can I change my prediction?  :)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on May 21, 2012, 08:23:24 am
If I made a prediction that was wrong by the time 35 games had been played, I wouldn't be asking for recognition.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on May 21, 2012, 08:35:18 am
Dave never updated the list.  In my post on April 7th (still there second from the last post on page 1 of this topic),  I predicted that they'd finish 57-105.
That may be because your prediction was made after the season started and the Cubs had two losses.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on May 21, 2012, 10:20:00 am
So I guess the consensus here is that the first 35 games are pretty much guaranteed to reflect the eventual result of 162 games?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on May 21, 2012, 07:13:26 pm
I had 69 wins. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 21, 2012, 09:48:13 pm
So I guess the consensus here is that the first 35 games are pretty much guaranteed to reflect the eventual result of 162 games?

No, they've played a home-heavy schedule - they could certainly end up worse over a full 162 games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on May 21, 2012, 10:53:44 pm
No, they've played a home-heavy schedule - they could certainly end up worse over a full 162 games.

Well, at least it's clear they could not possibly do better.  ;)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 21, 2012, 11:03:49 pm
Well, at least it's clear they could not possibly do better.  ;)

You're talking to the guy who said 72 wins.  I'm an optimist!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on May 22, 2012, 08:12:29 am
You're talking to the guy who said 72 wins.  I'm an optimist!

My mistake. How could I have ever thought otherwise?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 11:11:27 am
Rather than a bad team performing badly when it was 100% predictable, people should be worried about the emerging reality that the Ricketts are a dysfunctional and despicable family (most of them).  That has much greater implications for the future.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on May 22, 2012, 11:20:13 am
Rather than a bad team performing badly when it was 100% predictable, people should be worried about the emerging reality that the Ricketts are a dysfunctional and despicable family (most of them).  That has much greater implications for the future.

I don't care about what kind of family they are as long as they give the Theocracy the funds that lead to the Cubs winning the World Series.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 11:39:22 am
And there's growing reason to doubt they will.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Clarkaddison on May 22, 2012, 11:46:53 am
The Ricketts family dysfunctional and despicable?  On what do you base that conclusion?  How many times have you sat down to dinner with them?

BTW, I agree that Joe's proposed superpac campaign sucks.  But painting the entire family with that broad brush defies logic.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 11:58:28 am
The info that's emerging - that it was Joe calling the shots in the negotiations, his bragging (on camera) that it was the fact that the Cubs could sell out the ballpark with bad teams that attracted him to the idea of buying the team - is just the tip of the iceberg.  As the relationship with the city and fans goes South (as it's already doing) Joe is going to be less and less likely to want to see any of his money spent on the organization apart from the bare minimum to keep the fans hooked.

The problem is, Tom Ricketts can't extract himself from the stink.  It's obvious Joe and Pete are involved intimately in the financial side, and the growing ill will on the part of the fans is going to further poison the relationship with the ownership.  It's not so much a question of the SuperPAC money as the fact that the PAC was set up to "limit government spending" - and you have Ricketts insisting that the Cubs get hundreds of millions in government spending for themselves.  This is the meme you increasingly see reported in the press, and on top of the not insignificant fact that Obama is a Chicago politician and Chicago is overwhelmingly Democratic the odds of any significant public funding for the renovations are increasingly slim.  And if the Ricketts don't get their publicly funded Wrigley upgrades - which is where they saw the dollar signs flashing - they aren't going to spend heavily on trivial things like payroll.

It's no wonder Joe sent Laura to the Kerry Wood retirement festivities, because they're trying to shift the focus off this whole debacle as much as possible.  But I doubt it's going to work.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Clarkaddison on May 22, 2012, 12:22:49 pm
We'll see soon enough.  I'm not bothered by the shrunken payroll this year, because it was a lost year going in.  Let's see what they spend on the draft and next year's free agent class.

If their motivation really is profit over Cubs success, they'll sell quickly because the Dodgers' sale exponentially increased the value of all franchises. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 01:41:18 pm
Let's hope they do.

Make no mistake - there are exactly two relevant factors in this ownership.  First is Joe Ricketts making money.  Second is Tom Ricketts' ego.  This brewing debacle is a body blow to both, especially if public financing for Wrigley is a casualty.  If Joe isn't printing money and Tom isn't being glorified in Chicago, things are going to get mighty ugly mighty fast.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Clarkaddison on May 22, 2012, 02:27:19 pm
You obviously have formed your opinions on the Ricketts family based on what you've read.  Having read the same, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.  I don't believe that Joe's politics (which I'm diametrically opposed to) influence his offspring on the running of the Cubs. 

Whether Tom is able to repair relations with Rahm remains to be seen. 

I give them credit for rebuilding the front office, not only hiring Theo and Jed, but also the additional hires that brought the smallest staff in the majors up to par, and bringing the organization into the 21st century technologically.  I really think better times are in store for the Cubs.  Let's hope we are still around to enjoy it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 03:10:28 pm
I base my opinions on the Ricketts Family from growing up with them as an outsider, going to a high school full of people like them, studying them like Margaret Mead.  I've seen how they think, what motivates them.  They aren't like you and me.  They might look cute, but it's dangerous to imbue them with human emotions.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on May 22, 2012, 03:39:25 pm
Other than not having a high enough payroll to suit you, exactly what do you have against the Ricketts family?  You have been quite vague about complaints.

What have you seen them do that you feel is so wrong?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on May 22, 2012, 03:46:38 pm
Any chance at all that the lower payroll is due to the inevitable Soriano salary dump and trying to take care of most of that charge during this year?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on May 22, 2012, 05:18:17 pm
Other than not having a high enough payroll to suit you, exactly what do you have against the Ricketts family?  You have been quite vague about complaints.

What have you seen them do that you feel is so wrong?

Other than the $10 million SuperPAC fiasco, the SuperPAC set up to "end government spending" by a man who wants $300 million is government spending directly to his pocket and Joe Ricketts saying he bought the Cubs because they sold tickets even when they sucked, you mean?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on May 22, 2012, 05:20:04 pm
Any chance at all that the lower payroll is due to the inevitable Soriano salary dump and trying to take care of most of that charge during this year?

The worst thing the Cubs could have done was to have gone on another 2006-2007 spending spree to try to win in 2012.  The next worst thing would have been to have spent enough to be com-petitive.

The current course should have been taken in the middle of the 2006 season
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on May 22, 2012, 05:43:57 pm
Rather than a bad team performing badly when it was 100% predictable, people should be worried about the emerging reality that the Ricketts are a dysfunctional and despicable family (most of them).

On what do you base your conclusion that the family is "dysfunctional and despicable?"  Sure appears that they have been functioning reasonably well.

And there's growing reason to doubt they will (give the Theocracy the funds that lead to the Cubs winning the World Series).

What is the "growing reason"?

BTW, I agree that Joe's proposed superpac campaign sucks.

The proposal which has been widely reported was not Joe's, but was instead a proposal which someone else made to him and which he rejected.  Are you saying it sucks that he rejected it?  I would agree with that.  Too bad he did.

This brewing debacle is a body blow to both, especially if public financing for Wrigley is a casualty.

"Brewing debacle"?  What "brewing debacle"?

And I see it as a plus that the Cubs not get public financing for Wrigley.  There is no reason the government should pay for or subsidize the Cubs, any other sports franchise, or any other business.


The info that's emerging - that it was Joe calling the shots in the negotiations,

Info that is "emerging"?  I posted a link to a video of him making comments a year ago.  What is it that is "emerging" now?


his bragging (on camera) that it was the fact that the Cubs could sell out the ballpark with bad teams that attracted him to the idea of buying the team - is just the tip of the iceberg.

And the idea that the Cubs sell out even with bad teams is a new one?

Only the Ricketts were aware of it?

Anyone buying the team was going to buy it in part because of the loyalty of the fan base.  Any owner who would NOT have known that and taken it into account would have been so stupid he would have been a disaster as an owner.


The problem is, Tom Ricketts can't extract himself from the stink.  It's obvious Joe and Pete are involved intimately in the financial side, and the growing ill will on the part of the fans is going to further poison the relationship with the ownership.

What stink?  You really think Cub fans give a rat's as* about Joe's PAC?

  And if the Ricketts don't get their publicly funded Wrigley upgrades - which is where they saw the dollar signs flashing - they aren't going to spend heavily on trivial things like payroll.

And you base that on.... what, exactly?

If the fans do not show up because the team stinks and is showing no sign of improving, that might create a reasonable incentive for spending to improve the team.

It's no wonder Joe sent Laura to the Kerry Wood retirement festivities...

And what information do you have leading to the conclusion Joe ordered his daughter to attend the "festivities"?


Whether Tom is able to repair relations with Rahm remains to be seen.

Why would relations between the Cubs and Rahm be damaged by Pappa Ricketts hearing, AND REJECTING, a proposal to fund PAC adds focusing on Obama's ties to Wright?

I base my opinions on the Ricketts Family from growing up with them as an outsider, going to a high school full of people like them....

Your post reeks of envy, and for you to have a valid opinion of the Ricketts family based on "going to a high school full of people like them," you first need to know how the Ricketts' family is, and it appears you know squat about them, other than they have money, and it appears you do not and are jealous about it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on May 22, 2012, 05:55:24 pm
Other than the $10 million SuperPAC fiasco, the SuperPAC set up to "end government spending" by a man who wants $300 million is government spending directly to his pocket and Joe Ricketts saying he bought the Cubs because they sold tickets even when they sucked, you mean?

What superpac fiasco are you referring to?  I have already said that no public money should be spent on Wrigley Field, but what does that have to do with a SuperPAC?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on May 22, 2012, 10:17:33 pm
Davep, nice homage to JesBeard. Funny stuff.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on July 05, 2012, 12:07:23 am
The Cubs have reached the mid-point of the season with a record of 31-50. 

Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on July 05, 2012, 12:50:40 am
So far, so good.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on July 05, 2012, 08:29:43 am
Quote
63 - StrikeZone

Damb pessimist.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on July 05, 2012, 08:33:37 am
Without my prediction and mO's that list is invalid.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on July 05, 2012, 06:03:14 pm
i had 69
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on July 05, 2012, 06:51:53 pm
Summer nights...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on July 06, 2012, 11:59:21 am
Quote
So far, so good.

Currently at 31-51, but 7-3 over their last 10 (since the Big Riz came up).  When they keep playing at that clip, 7-3 extrapolates to 57-25 over the second half of the season.  57 + 31 = 88.

Sweet.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on July 06, 2012, 01:50:38 pm
So my game plan is working perfectly.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on August 22, 2012, 12:31:34 am
Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone
The Cubs are 47-75 after losing to Milwaukee Tuesday night.  With forty games left in the season, DaveP has been mathematically eliminated.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on August 22, 2012, 12:42:04 am
What if they win the rest of their games and then sweep the playoffs and World Series?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on August 22, 2012, 06:40:23 am
If this were like the Price is Right, mO and I are looking pretty good.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ray on August 22, 2012, 06:43:53 am
Come on 38-2....
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on August 22, 2012, 07:00:34 am
79 wins?  Man, what was I thinking?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on August 22, 2012, 07:45:27 am
79 wins?  Man, what was I thinking?

Seriously, dude.  You musta been on crack or something. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on August 22, 2012, 08:29:43 am
It appears as though even Bitterman was overly optimistic. Contemplate that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Clarkaddison on August 27, 2012, 11:25:43 am
63-99
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on August 27, 2012, 10:27:43 pm
63-99

Hey, don't go jumping on the bandwagon now!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on August 29, 2012, 08:00:08 pm
dont forget me!!! 
 Re: Predictions
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2012, 11:18:41 pm »Quote Modify Remove 69  just like the number
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on August 29, 2012, 11:09:24 pm
Who would have believed 73 was optimistic?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on August 29, 2012, 11:12:49 pm
Who would have believed 73 was optimistic?

*raises hand*
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on August 30, 2012, 08:01:06 am
And I picked 74.....
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on August 30, 2012, 11:17:17 am
Who are the idiots who picked 80+ wins?  Geez.  Morans.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on August 30, 2012, 02:09:25 pm
I think most people expected the Theocracy to seriously stray from their announced plan of true, fundamental rebuilding, without concern about trying to win quickly.  I certainly expected them to cave and make moves somewhere along the way to eke out a few more wins this summer with pointless moves marginally improving the team in the short term, while doing nothing to help in the long term and perhaps even to sacrifice the long term a bit.

They really haven't, and that is great, even if it means the team ends up with only 60 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on September 07, 2012, 09:42:08 am
With a record of 51-86, the Cubs need to win 12 of their remaining 25 games to avoid a 100 loss season.

The rest of the schedule:

At Pittsburgh, 3
At Houston, 3
Pittsburgh, 4
Cincinnati, 3
St. Louis, 3
At Colorado, 3
At Arizona, 3
Houston, 3

Current records against those teams:

Pittsburgh, 3-6
Houston, 5-4
Cincinnati, 4-9
St. Louis, 6-8
Colorado, 2-1,
Arizona, 3-3

If the Cubs split with Houston, Colorado, and Arizona (6-6), they will need to finish 6-7 against the contenders.  With Germano, Rusin, and Volstad in the rotation, that is not going to happen.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on October 03, 2012, 04:26:20 pm
Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone

And the winner is StrikeZone as the Cubs finish with 61 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on October 03, 2012, 04:27:34 pm
Total wins for the 2012 season...

88 - DaveP
87 - FITS, AZSteve
85 - Ray
83 - BR
82 - DelMar, Tico
81 - Cactus, Jay
80 - Dave23
79 - JR, Clark
76 - Chiman, Santo
75 - Craig, Cubsin, PR, Ben
74 - Jacey, Jes, Dihard
73 - Robb
72 - ECF, Deeg
71 - grrrrlacher
70 - Jiggy
69 - Bitter
63 - StrikeZone

Damn, I knew I was being too optimistic.

Oh, well, I still won the Showcase Showdown!

Woo-hoo!?!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on October 03, 2012, 04:29:50 pm
Oh, well, I still won the Showcase Showdown!

Actually, by Price is Right rules, we're all over...so we all lose.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: PRCubFan on October 03, 2012, 04:29:58 pm
We all lost.  We all went over. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on October 03, 2012, 04:31:54 pm
Sounds about right...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on October 03, 2012, 04:32:18 pm
I'm going by losses.

Screw you guys, you're not taking this away from me!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on October 03, 2012, 04:33:23 pm
Actually, by Price is Right rules, we're all over...so we all lose.

For the 2012 Cubs and for everyone on the Bleacher Bums Forum . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueywqUBW3oM
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on October 03, 2012, 05:21:32 pm
Next year I'm going with 54-108, just to be on the safe side.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 03, 2012, 05:23:46 pm
I bid 1 win!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on October 03, 2012, 05:30:25 pm
New rule for 2013:  The winner will be the closest prediction that does not go under the final total
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on October 03, 2012, 05:31:07 pm
New rule for 2013:  The winner will be the closest prediction that does not go under the final total

This has to be cleared with FITS first.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 03, 2012, 06:37:53 pm
Not mO and me.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Scoop on October 03, 2012, 08:25:47 pm
68

Even I was optimistic!  I'm ashamed.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on January 17, 2013, 09:14:29 am
Quote from: Dale Sveum
The one thing you hate doing is saying .500 would be good.  Because it’s not good. It’s not 101 losses, but .500 isn’t getting you to the playoffs, either.’’

Quote from: Theo Epstein
The 2013 season can be considered a failure if the Cubs don’t make the playoffs.

Making an effort to keep ticket sales from dropping too much?



In 2012, I said the Cubs would finish at .500 with a record of 81-81.  Instead they were 61-101. 

It’s too soon to be pinned down to a specific number for 2013 so for now I’ll say the Cubs will win more than 61 games and fewer than 81 in 2013.

There are 12 fewer games against the Houston Astros (8-7 in 2012).
Alfonso Soriano is unlikely to have as much success.
Same for Darwin Barney.
Anthony Rizzo will suffer from the sophomore jinx.
Contributions from catcher and third base will be minimal.
What pitching help there is in the farm system is still a ways away.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 17, 2013, 09:46:52 am
Do you have a link to that Hoyer quote?  Hard for me to believe he is saying that.

Right now I'll predict 65 wins.  I think last year I predicted 71.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on January 17, 2013, 12:17:58 pm
I'll go 78-84.  I think they will be significantly better.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 17, 2013, 12:59:02 pm
I think they'll be significantly better because they just threw a minor league pitching staff out there for the last two months.  And just throwing a below average bullpen out there (as opposed to the worst in the league by far) should net the Cubs an extra half dozen wins or so.

But how much better they are is still TBD.  At the very least, I expect them to still add a RH platoon/4th outfielder and a RH infielder who can minimize the suckiness at 3B.  But I wouldn't be shocked at something better than that.


As is, I'd have them at about 75 wins.  Adding Hairston and a RH infielder like Jeff Baker would get them to 77.  Going all out with a big name OF (Bourn or Upton) instead of a Hairston type puts them right around .500.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on January 17, 2013, 01:24:15 pm
But how much better they are is still TBD.  At the very least, I expect them to still add a RH platoon/4th outfielder and a RH infielder who can minimize the suckiness at 3B.  But I wouldn't be shocked at something better than that.
Besides those additions, there are no backups on the present roster for Darwin Barney or Anthony Rizzo.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=chc (http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=chc)

The roster is going to change quite a bit between now and the end of spring training.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on January 17, 2013, 01:27:58 pm
Valbuena is the top backup for Barney.

But yeah, there probably are some backup players left to be signed, and probably a bench job or two to be up for grabs in spring training.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 17, 2013, 01:43:06 pm
It would be nice to find a way to upgrade third base, then let Stewart back up 1B and 3B (with someone like Jeff Baker being signed to platoon with him in that role).
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 17, 2013, 03:43:08 pm
It would be nice to find a way to upgrade third base, then let Stewart back up 1B and 3B (with someone like Jeff Baker being signed to platoon with him in that role).

If you upgrade at 3B, and relegate Stewart and Valbuena to backup roles, the possibility of creating value at 3B is sharply reduced.  I think Stewart and Valbuena are going to be the options at 3B at least thru the end of May.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on January 17, 2013, 07:01:54 pm
71-91.  If there's another fire sale it could be worse, but let's be optimistic.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 17, 2013, 09:18:17 pm
Ill say 70-92.

At least we wont lose 100.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 17, 2013, 10:00:47 pm
71-91.  If there's another fire sale it could be worse, but let's be optimistic.

I am optimistic.  I am optimistic that there is a fire sale where the Theocracy maximizes whatever talent they have on the roster in July to covert it into players and prospects who are likely to provide the maximal value in 2015 and beyond.

Doing that will be vastly preferable than winning 5-10 more games in the last two and a half months of the season.

Hoping they hold onto players like DeJesus or Garza or any starter other than Smardz who might be doing well is not being optimistic.  It is being misguided.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: otto105 on January 18, 2013, 01:09:27 pm
I predict that the Brewers will finish 8 games better than the scrubs.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 18, 2013, 01:42:12 pm
Really going out on a limb there, otto.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on January 20, 2013, 11:01:31 pm
As of right now, I'm with Jiggy at 70 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on January 21, 2013, 12:01:46 am
As of now this is still a 100 loss team
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on January 25, 2013, 01:08:06 pm
<61

Worse than last year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: ticohans on January 25, 2013, 03:37:31 pm
78 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Clarkaddison on January 25, 2013, 04:10:13 pm
72
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on January 25, 2013, 04:17:27 pm
75
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on January 25, 2013, 04:23:39 pm
76
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 25, 2013, 04:24:41 pm
Still too soon to say for sure.
Title: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on January 25, 2013, 05:27:34 pm
78-84
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on January 26, 2013, 10:36:53 am
BR, when you know for sure I'll by the two of us tickets to Vegas.  :)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 26, 2013, 10:47:01 am
This Fangraphs analysis currently has the Cubs in the 77-79 win range, with about a 3% chance of winning 91 games.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-sign-scott-hairston/
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 26, 2013, 11:44:24 am
This Fangraphs analysis currently has the Cubs in the 77-79 win range, with about a 3% chance of winning 91 games.

A pretty good indication that the folks are Fangraphs don't know what they are writing about.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on January 26, 2013, 12:38:43 pm
It’s too soon to be pinned down to a specific number for 2013 so for now I’ll say the Cubs will win more than 61 games and fewer than 81 in 2013.
I propose that official predictions be made in the ten day period before the season opens on April 1.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on January 26, 2013, 08:02:40 pm
77
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 26, 2013, 08:42:41 pm
They look to me about like a 76-86 team.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on January 27, 2013, 12:08:32 am
This would be a good time to buy stock in Kool-aid, apparently.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 27, 2013, 11:01:54 am
Me saying they're a sub .500 team means Im drinking kool-aid? I dont think so. They're quite a bit better than they were last year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2013, 11:54:04 am
Me saying they're a sub .500 team means Im drinking kool-aid? I dont think so. They're quite a bit better than they were last year.

Thinking the Cubs are likely to finish within 5 games of .500 likely does.  Last year they had four starters who either performed at ace level for much of the first half of the season, or (in Garza's case) were quite reasonably expected to perform at that level.... and yet they stunk.

This years starting rotation does not have four starters who you would expect to perform as well as Maholm/Garza/Smarz/Dempster did the first half of 2012.  And when two of them did well, they were traded, and if Garza had stayed healthy, he also would have been.

You can expect the same thing in 2013.

And while the Cubs are not likely to give quite so many AB in 2013 as they did to outmakers like Jackson and Vitters, they also are very unlikely to get close to the production out of Soriano they got in 2012.

This team is very unlikely to even sniff at .500 by season's end.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2013, 12:38:25 pm
Disagreement = being a dickhead.

Welcome to jiggyland.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on January 27, 2013, 02:53:50 pm
Disagreeing doesn't preclude one from being a dickhead.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2013, 06:06:36 pm
Play, that is certainly true, but can you look at my post and tell me what in it might meet Jiggy's  description, a description he seems not to even have had the stones to leave up?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on January 27, 2013, 07:10:17 pm
I don't see anything obnoxious in that particular post.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on January 27, 2013, 07:13:21 pm
I really don't see where the Cubs are significantly better on paper.  Offensively they could easily be worse - Soriano almost certainly will be, and they haven't materially upgraded themselves at any position except having Rizzo for a full season.  You've plugged in Jackson for Dempster, and added considerable depth of middle-class pitchers who are certainly an upgrade over the scraps we relied on last season after the break, but the Cubs are likely to have a pitching fire sale in the summer again anyway, and the high minors offers little to no more help than it did last season.

The Cubs were basically a 70-74 win team before the fire sale last year.  They might be a 72-76 win team this time, but figure at least 3 pitchers will be dealt, maybe even the likes of Garza and Marmol, along with one or more of their veteran position players.  I think anything over 70 is pretty optimistic.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2013, 07:48:30 pm
If the Theocracy wants to win as many games as possible in 2013, I could see up to 85 wins without any major surprises, 90 if everything broke the Cubs way, and as few as 72 or 73 if they had a bit of bad luck.

But I don't see the Theocracy making any particular effort to win games in 2013, particularly when any such effort would be at the expense of improving the team in later years and for an extended period.

Pitchers who do better than expected (other than Smardz) are likely to be traded.

It will likely be another long and ugly season.  And, unfortunately, one after which we start talking about 2016 and not 2015 when they start making a serious run.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 27, 2013, 08:44:05 pm
The Cubs should be better on offense this year.  C and CF were black holes last year, and they shouldn't be this year.  Schierholtz/Hairston should be at least as good in RF as DeJesus was.  Everywhere else has stayed the same, and Soriano is the only one is is likely to decline (while Rizzo and Castro are likely to improve). 

The rotation should be better early in the first half just because Volstad won't take 9 starts in the fifth spot.  Samardzija will be better because he won't start playing around with a curveball that gets pounded for the month of June.  Jackson won't be as good as Dempster was, but it won't offset the gains from Samardzija and the 5th spot.  Garza/Baker should be roughly as good as Garza/Maholm. 

And the rotation should be better in the second half because it should have, at minimum, Samardzija, Jackson, Wood, and Villanueva.  Maybe Vizcaino.  And the front office made it clear they were willing to talk extension with Baker and/or Feldman if they perform.

The bullpen will be the biggest improvement.  The whole bullpen outside Camp and Russell was awful in 2012.  But Marmol seemed to put it back together in the second half, and will hopefully be better.  Fujikawa and Villanueva will be huge improvements.  So will Wood or Feldman once Baker gets healthy.

78 wins if nothing changes.  But there has been enough smoke this offseason that I won't believe they're done until Bourn is off the market.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on January 28, 2013, 03:32:07 am
Castro had his worst OPS as a pro last season and he doesn't seem especially coachable, so to say he improves is a crapshoot.  Maybe, maybe not. 

The bullpen is the biggest improvement, I agree.  But Sharky is another guy who might or might not be able to duplicate what he did last year.  I just don't see it - this looks like a slightly better but still middling pitching staff (assuming Garza is not damaged goods) with possibly the weakest offense in the NL.  72-76 wins if there's no fire sale, but I wouldn't be rooting for the Cubs to think they're building their future by signing guys like Feldman to extensions.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on January 28, 2013, 04:50:12 pm
Too soon for predictions.  Cactus has it right.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 28, 2013, 05:48:16 pm
I'm waiting for Beerfan to vote so I know which was to go.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on January 28, 2013, 10:31:04 pm
I agree. We might trade Marmol, Soriano, Garza and DeJesus on the last day of Spring Training. I'll make my prediction on Opening Day.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JBN on January 29, 2013, 05:42:54 pm
If they are bad: 59-103

If they are good: 60-102.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2013, 08:35:27 am
These don't really mean much, but just for fun...Baseball Prospectus just released their first playoff odds report of the year.  The Cubs have about a 1 in 8 chance of being a playoff team, and about an 8.3% chance of reaching the division series...that sounds about right.  BP has them at 77.5 wins in last place, but only about a win and a half behind the Brewers in third place, and just over 5 wins behind the Cardinals in second place.  They have 7 teams with lower playoff odds than the Cubs.

Again, doesn't really mean anything, but kind of fun to see at this point in spring training.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on February 15, 2013, 08:59:34 am
Also, it should be noted...since Baseball Prospectus uses multiple years of past performance as part of the equation for projecting future results, Samardzija is projected to have a 4.56 ERA (worst in the rotation).  Rizzo's forecast is fairly pedestrian as well (.255/.322/.465; most other projection systems have him a low-mid .800s OPS).  Despite the very conservative forecasts in both cases, they still have the Cubs at 77-78 wins for 2013.  Adjust the forecast for those two players to be more in line with expectations (and forecasts everywhere else), and you have roughly a .500 projection.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on March 01, 2013, 07:38:37 pm

67-95




Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 02, 2013, 01:01:22 am
1 in 8 for the postseason?  If there's a mid-year contraction and we lose about 8 teams from the NL, that sounds about right.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on March 19, 2013, 03:03:09 am
 70 wins.  Probably.  The pen should get them a few more wins than last year, but this is a terrible baseball team.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on March 19, 2013, 12:32:57 pm
OK, after the latest Scott Baker injury news, I am afraid I'm gonna have to cut back my prediction to 63-99 due to the injuries to the starting rotation they've already suffered.

The offense is going to struggle again.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 19, 2013, 12:36:25 pm
Sticking with 78 wins...or at least 78 win pace through July, at which point they trade off a few pieces and probably end up in the 72-75 win range in the end.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on March 19, 2013, 12:54:44 pm
Put me down for 71 wins.   I'd go a little higher but the Astros are no longer in the NL Central.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 19, 2013, 08:29:36 pm
I said 71 and I think that's still possible, if a bit optimistic given all the lingering rotation injuries (if this team had a strength, that was going to be it).  They could be historically bad offensively, and if they're going to keep the losses in double-digits assuming another summer fire-sale it's improved pitching that has to carry them.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 19, 2013, 09:00:57 pm
59-103
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 19, 2013, 09:13:49 pm
Well with some of the early pitching injuries, I think I'm becoming a little more pessimistic.  I'll say 70.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ray on March 19, 2013, 09:42:27 pm
I'll go with 74 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 20, 2013, 03:08:40 am
1-161
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AZSteve on March 20, 2013, 07:53:08 am
81-81
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 20, 2013, 07:54:49 am
1-161

Where's the 1 gonna come from?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on March 20, 2013, 08:49:09 am
Too soon for predictions.  Cactus has it right.

Predictions since March 1

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone         
67 - Andy MacFail     
70 - bitterman         
70 - JR           
71 - Cactus       
71 - Deeg           
74 - Ray           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve         
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 20, 2013, 08:50:45 am
They must still be growing some good peyote out in Arizona.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 20, 2013, 09:52:53 am
If we're recording these and are going to look back at them throughout the season, we really need two projections: pace before the trade deadline, and actual win total.  As constituted right now, I think they are about a 78 win team.  But once they're forced to start one or two of Rusin, Raley, or Loux after the deadline, Soriano's bat is gone, and the bullpen loses depth after Marmol is traded, they're not going to be as good.  In the end, they'll end up with about 74 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 20, 2013, 10:04:54 am
When I hear predictions of 78 or 81 wins coming from this roster - deadline fire sale or no - I'm reminded of Jerry looking at George and saying "I don't see architecture coming from you."

Where does this roster get close to .500?  There's zero reason to think the offense will be meaningfully better than 2012 - which means it'll be awful.  Garza is out at least a month, and after that is anyone's guess.  Baker?  Pray it's a month, but it could be the season.  Feldman stinks but at least he's healthy and doesn't stink as bad as the likes of Raley and Rusin.  Maybe Samardzjia proves 2012 wasn't a career year, maybe he doesn't.  The only area that looks like it could be significantly improved is the bullpen - but that gets you improvement into the two-digit loss column, and maybe to 70 wins.  Not much more.

The franchise is headed in the right direction.  Theo seems to be making progress for the long haul.  But for now?  I just don't see it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 20, 2013, 11:23:34 am

There's zero reason to think the offense will be meaningfully better than 2012 - which means it'll be awful.


Well, let's go position-by-position:
So two positions that should be major upgrades (just because the names aren't exciting doesn't mean the upgrades aren't huge), and two that are a push.  The improvements from Rizzo and Castro should cancel out the declines of Soriano and DeJesus, although there is a significant chance that one or both of the young players could really break out as true stars.  The lineup is better.  Not good by any stretch of the imagination...but good enough to move up to 11th or 12th in the league instead of dead last.


Quote
Garza is out at least a month, and after that is anyone's guess.  Baker?  Pray it's a month, but it could be the season.  Feldman stinks but at least he's healthy and doesn't stink as bad as the likes of Raley and Rusin.  Maybe Samardzija proves 2012 wasn't a career year, maybe he doesn't.


The big thing with the rotation is that a full one third of the schedule was started by the following group last year: Volstad, Germano, Rusin, Raley, Coleman, Wells, Berken.  That is one third of the schedule pitched by guys who didn't belong in the major leagues.  If that caliber of pitcher starts that many games again in 2013, then yes, they're going to be 95+ loss bad again.  But that's not likely.  Limit that group to 5-10 starts (or less) in 2013, and you're adding 5 wins easily. 


It's worth noting that this team was on pace for ~70 wins last year through the deadline, and stayed roughly on that same pace in games started by Samardzija and Wood.  But Samardzija and Wood only pitched about 25% of the games after July 31...so it was the 40ish win pace from the other 75% of games killed them.


Quote
The only area that looks like it could be significantly improved is the bullpen - but that gets you improvement into the two-digit loss column, and maybe to 70 wins.
[size=78%] [/size]


By most measures, the Cubs' bullpen was the worst in the majors in 2012.  Take Fangraphs, which has the bullpen at 1.5 wins below replacement, #30 in MLB.  #29 was the Mets, at 0.1 win below replacement.  #28 was the Angels at 0.9 win above replacement.  So by just improving to 28th in the league, the Cubs could add 2-3 wins (and that's assuming that WAR is somewhat accurate for bullpens...given the number of high leverage innings they pitch, it probably isn't accurate, and the 2-3 win estimate is low).  Getting to average/slightly below adds 5+ wins to the team in 2013.


Bottom line: there was a lot of low-hanging fruit for the front office this offseason.  The rotation, bullpen, third outfield spot, catcher, and third base were all so bad last year that just improving to ~20th in the majors is a massive improvement.  And except for third base, they succeeded in getting respectable at all positions.  That should add a lot of wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on March 20, 2013, 12:23:29 pm
i will go with 69 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 20, 2013, 12:37:11 pm
65 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 20, 2013, 12:42:54 pm
82 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on March 20, 2013, 12:50:04 pm
105 - this is the year
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 20, 2013, 12:52:20 pm
I'll go with 73 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 20, 2013, 01:32:53 pm
70 victories
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on March 20, 2013, 01:39:04 pm
I was going to wait until Opening Day, but with Garza, Baker and Stewart all on the DL for the foreseeable future, another July fire sale seems inevitable, so I'll go with 67.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 20, 2013, 01:40:40 pm
I was going to wait until Opening Day, but with Garza, Baker and Stewart all on the DL for the foreseeable future, another July fire sale seems inevitable, so I'll go with 67.

If Garza, Baker, and Stewart were all playing, he would have guessed 62.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 20, 2013, 02:00:16 pm
If we're recording these and are going to look back at them throughout the season, we really need two projections: pace before the trade deadline, and actual win total.  As constituted right now, I think they are about a 78 win team.  But once they're forced to start one or two of Rusin, Raley, or Loux after the deadline, Soriano's bat is gone, and the bullpen loses depth after Marmol is traded, they're not going to be as good.  In the end, they'll end up with about 74 wins.

Soriano's bat is already gone, or at least should be expected to be gone.

He is 37 years old, and last year had a fluke season which was 8 OPS+ points better than his career OPS+, and which was better than he had done in any of the four prior seasons.  37 year old hitters generally do not do as well at age 38 as they did at age 37.  They generally do not do better than their career average.  They generally do not do as well as their moving average over the last five years.  And they generally are not more healthy than their recent track record has shown them to be.... and for Soriano that track record had him injured in four of the last five seasons.

Hopefully Soriano does well and helps fill some seats and serves as a role model for younger players, or does well and approves a trade, but a realistic charitable projection for him would be 130 games with a .250 BA, 20 HR and an OBP of .300, not exactly the kind of LF performance which is a major contribution to winning.  110 games with a BA of .235 and 15 HR should not really surprise anyone.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 20, 2013, 02:06:10 pm
In mid-January I predicted 65 wins.

Nothing has changed that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Reb on March 20, 2013, 03:13:47 pm

Well, let's go position-by-position:
  • First Base: Rizzo is a year older and should be better.  2013 > 2012.
  • Second Base: Barney is Barney.  Push.
  • Shortstop: Castro is a year older and should be better.  2013 > 2012.
  • Third base: Still likely to be awful.  Valbuena was the best performer of the group last year, so you could see a little improvement just by not giving ABs to Mather or Vitters.  Still, this is a push.
  • Outfield #1: Soriano is a year older and should be declining.  2013 < 2012.
  • Outfield #2: DeJesus is a year older and should be declining.  2013 < 2012.
  • Outfield #3: Schierholtz and Hairston aren't exciting, but are competent...possibly good enough to be roughly league average in RF.  They're taking the ABs given to mainly awful players last year: Mather, Byrd, LaHair after the league had figured him out, Baker, and Campana, with a few league average-ish PAs turned in by Reed Johnson.  This is a massive upgrade, 2013 >>> 2012.
  • Catcher: Castillo can reasonably be expected to be a .250/.320/.400 hitter this year, and has a little bit of upside.  With a little luck, he'll be around a league average starter.  Navarro is a perfectly capable backup, who should ensure that the Cubs at least get anti-awful performance out of the position if Castillo bombs.  Soto/Clevenger/Hill/Lalli/Recker provided nothing resembling anti-awful performance.  Another big upgrade, 2013 >> 2012.
So two positions that should be major upgrades (just because the names aren't exciting doesn't mean the upgrades aren't huge), and two that are a push.  The improvements from Rizzo and Castro should cancel out the declines of Soriano and DeJesus, although there is a significant chance that one or both of the young players could really break out as true stars.  The lineup is better.  Not good by any stretch of the imagination...but good enough to move up to 11th or 12th in the league instead of dead last.

Thanks for BR's position by position comp.

Let's look at the data.  Cubs were awful offensively at four positions last season:  3B, C, CF, and RF.

1. 3B we've already covered the last few days.  .611 OPS and -154 OPS compared to NL average.  Even with the same guys, this will be better because of random luck, if nothing else.  This is a virtual lock to be better.  How much, who knows.

2. Catcher- Cubs catcher OPS was .616. That was #15 in NL and -106 OPS compared to NL average at the position.  The more that Castillo plays, the more the Cubs will improve compared to last season.   Hard not to upgrade from .616 OPS from 2012.

3. CF- Cubs CF OPS was .640.  That was #14 in NL and -100 OPS compared to NL average at the position.  Keep in mind how this happened.  Campana started 33 games in CF with a .628 OPS while playing CF. B. Jackson started 38 games with a .670 OPS in CF.  Joe Mather started 26 games in CF with a .572 OPS as a CFer. Marlon Byrd started 13 games in CF with a .483 OPS as a CFer.  Gotta think this will be considerably better than .640 in 2013.

4. RF- Cubs OPS was .688. That was #15 in NL and -80 OPS compared to NL average in RF.   DeJesus only started 86 games in RF and did well, but LaHair started 32 games and was .633 OPS as a RFer, Jeff Baker started 11 games in RF with a .438 OPS as a RFer, and Mather went 1 for 20 in RF.  Again, Cubs figure to improve from .688.

In sum, Cubs were either #14, 15, or 16 at four positions in 2012--basically 1/2 of the lineup. I know that this sounds lame, but even going from awful to poor at FOUR positions in a real upgrade.  That's a lot more runs scored.  Maybe there even will be an average or two in that group.  :-\

Other positions in 2012 in OPS compared to NL average:  1B was + 19, 2B was -29, SS was +54. and LF was +21.

Hard to see that Cubs will be worse at three of the four positions that were good/okay, with the possible exception of LF.  Obviously, the key there is whether Soriano will fall off considerably or be traded, perhaps resulting in a downgrade in LF.   Still, it's not like Cubs had a monster offensive year there at .783 OPS.  It's not like losing Sammy in a prime year to the next.

So, overall, hard to argue that Cubs won't score more runs in 2013, seems to me.  I expect the offense to be below average but better than awful.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Santo4HofF on March 20, 2013, 04:13:49 pm
I am in for 69 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on March 20, 2013, 05:51:36 pm
My NL power ratings: Washington, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Atlanta, St. Louis, Arizona, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh, CUBS, Colorado, New York, Florida
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 20, 2013, 07:56:30 pm
Casto declined from 2011 to 2012, so I see no reason to assume he'll automatically improve.  Relying on guys like Schierholtz and Hairston for "massive" improvement in your projections is only an indication of just how desperately bad things are.  That seems to be the basis of the argument: we were so bad in 2012 that even by doing almost nothing to improve, we'll be better by sheer law of averages.  Well, maybe by a hair - but not enough to make much difference.  And it's entirely possible that Soriano's production could drop off the table in a big way, in which case look out, below.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 20, 2013, 09:36:11 pm
And it's just as possible that Castro's and/or Rizzo's production jumps up in a big way...in which case, all bets are off the table.

I guess it just depends on how you view the guys the Cubs have now.  I don't see going from league worst (or close to it) to average-ish as doing "almost nothing to improve".  And that's what the Cubs have done at catcher, their non-Soriano/DeJesus outfield spot, and probably the bullpen. 

And the biggest key is limiting the non-MLB quality starters to minimal appearances.  When Volstad, Germano, Rusin, Raley, Wells, Coleman, Berken started, the Cubs were 14-40, which is a .259 winning percentage (42 win pace over 162 games).  The Cubs weren't good when actual major league starters were on the mound (47-61; 70-71 win pace), but they were at least respectable.  If the Cubs top 7 this year (top 8 if you include Vizcaino) can pitch 150-155 games at roughly the same level as the Cubs top 5 did last year, they're already about a 70 win team.  Add in catcher, outfield, and bullpen improvements, and you can add on another 5-8 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on March 20, 2013, 11:02:58 pm
I don't see why people think third base will be better.  It's quite possible that it'll be worse.  Who is going to bring this mythical better production to third base?  Ian Stewart?  Really?  Brent Lillibridge could drag the production down quite a bit.  Luis Valbuena has proven that he isn't an every day player.  There's no solid production to be found in that bunch, folks.  Third base is going to be a black hole again and there's no guarantee that it is going to get any better than it was in 2012.  And if you think that Josh Vitters is gonna ride in on a white horse and save the day, you're on a different kind of white horse.

It's quite possible that third base will be worse than last season.  It could be a whole lot worse without some kind of major acquisition to fix the mess that's currently occupying that position.

The Ian Stewart fiasco gets worse every day.  I'm no Tyler Colvin fan but at least he's healthy but I certainly was a little bit of a DJ LeMahieu fan and Coors or no Coors, you'd rather have the two healthy guys than the one crappy injured one.  The Theocracy got robbed blind and they've admitted as much.

Again, they screwed up third base big time when they got to Chicago and haven't fixed it yet.  They let Aramis Ramirez go, traded away LeMahieu and Colvin for Stewart and watched both out produce him.  Then, they re-signed Stewart and saw him get injured yet again in spring training.

At this point, they should just cut Stewart and just pick up some journeyman, wait for an out of options roster crunch victim or even call Scott Rolen's agent to see what he's doing.  Of those three, I'd prefer the second option.  Anything but Stewart.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Reb on March 21, 2013, 12:29:09 am
Casto declined from 2011 to 2012, so I see no reason to assume he'll automatically improve.  Relying on guys like Schierholtz and Hairston for "massive" improvement in your projections is only an indication of just how desperately bad things are.  That seems to be the basis of the argument: we were so bad in 2012 that even by doing almost nothing to improve, we'll be better by sheer law of averages.  Well, maybe by a hair - but not enough to make much difference.  And it's entirely possible that Soriano's production could drop off the table in a big way, in which case look out, below.

If you're projecting 71 wins, that's a 10-win improvement--which is a 100 runs improved overall differential.   

My own view is that Cubs likely will score about 50-60 runs more than last season. (70 more runs would put the Cubs right at NL average using 2012 stats).

So, I see 5-6 more wins coming out of offense.  If you're projecting 10 more wins overall and see little or no offensive improvement, you would have to project 100 fewer runs allowed, which is a very rosy view of Cubs run prevention.  Such an optimist!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 21, 2013, 12:38:20 am
Yeah, but that prediction was a while ago, and I've admitted it might be very optimistic given the pitching injuries...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 21, 2013, 05:30:48 am
The Cubs weren't good when actual major league starters were on the mound (47-61; 70-71 win pace), but they were at least respectable.

By that standard, Hendry produced "respectable" teams every year but 2006.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 21, 2013, 09:17:02 am
Another prediction: the Cubs don't finish in last place in the division.  That "honor" will go to the Brewers. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 21, 2013, 09:53:43 am
I don't see why people think third base will be better....  It's quite possible that it'll be worse.
It's quite possible that third base will be worse than last season.

Any possibility we could get a betting line on that one, because I sure would like to take the over....

Again, they screwed up third base big time when they got to Chicago and haven't fixed it yet.

They took a gam-ble.  They lost.  That sometimes happens when you gam-ble.  That does not mean it was a mistake or that they screwed up.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on March 21, 2013, 10:48:23 am
If they end up retaining Soriano and he has a solid season, the Cubs may well improve to NL average in runs scored. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 21, 2013, 03:04:43 pm
I'll go with 68.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on March 22, 2013, 12:41:36 am
59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
68 - grrrrlacher
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF     
70 - bitterman         
70 - JR
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 22, 2013, 08:28:23 am
66 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 22, 2013, 08:49:09 am
Where's mO's 105 wins?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 22, 2013, 08:49:45 am
Actually the more I think about it, I'm thinking we're not getting to 70 wins this year after all.  I'll go with 69 instead.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on March 22, 2013, 09:04:19 am
Put me down for 67.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 22, 2013, 10:40:47 am
Where's mO's 105 wins?

No problem at all reaching 105 wins... as a two season total.  Might even beat that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron Green on March 23, 2013, 08:47:18 pm
75, and it could be a lot better than that.  They are way better than last year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on March 26, 2013, 10:10:36 am
59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: ticohans on March 26, 2013, 09:08:09 pm
72
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on March 26, 2013, 10:28:07 pm
71
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on March 31, 2013, 11:31:17 pm
68
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on April 01, 2013, 12:18:42 pm
How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep   

Entries are now closed   
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 01, 2013, 12:54:27 pm
Only 23 games between the most positive and most negative predictions.

Only one prediction above .500, and only two at .500 or better.

Midpoint of the predictions -- 70.5 wins.

Most popular predictions -- 67, 69 and 71, each with three votes, and each less than the exact mid-point in predictions.

Most predictions were for less than 70 wins.

Most predictions were for more than 68 wins.

Average of all predictions -- 74.56 wins.

Of course, all of this is jesmath, so take from it what you will....
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on April 01, 2013, 03:42:40 pm
I'd like to change my prediction to 162-0.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on May 15, 2013, 10:22:20 pm
Quote
59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep   
Wednesday night’s game marks the one-quarter point of the season.   The Cubs record of 17-23 projects to 69-93 for the season.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on June 23, 2013, 01:39:07 pm
The Cubs are on target to win 66 games yet their starters have overachieved.  What will happen when that strength returns to the mean through trade/law of averages/injury? I'm starting to think my prediction of 66 wins was generous.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on June 23, 2013, 02:34:52 pm
If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1 run games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on June 23, 2013, 05:12:58 pm
You're remembering these are the Cubs right?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on June 23, 2013, 11:57:37 pm
If we're going to play the law of averages game, then at some point, the Cubs are going to start winning more than 33% of 1 run games.

With that bullpen?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on June 24, 2013, 09:41:13 am
The outcome of a one run game is mostly random.  Just like the Orioles didn't have a magical, sustainable skill to win one run games last year, the Cubs don't have the opposite "skill" of losing one run games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on June 24, 2013, 12:48:27 pm
The outcome of a one run game is mostly random.

Uh.... not really.

Teams which have bad bullpens have trouble holding onto saves when they are on the road and will lose games by one run when the run scores without anyone out, or only one out or even with two outs, or they will come back in the top of the 9th, but still fall one run short of tying it.

In other words, they will score fewer runs, on fewer outs.  The better team, the winning team, would often end up scoring more than the one run needed to win it if they played out all 27 of their outs.

In other words, the game is set up so bad teams lose by "just one run" far more often than they would if games were played out fully.

If games were in fact played out fully (and with the winning team continuing to try to score more runs until the last out), bad teams (like the Cubs) would lose no more games, but they would lose fewer of them by just one run.  If every out available in a game were played out, THEN there might be some randomness to one-run losses.

But that is not the case.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on July 03, 2013, 12:50:48 am
How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb         
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep     
A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us expected.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on July 03, 2013, 08:44:05 am
A 35-46 record at the half way mark is about what many of us expected.

Yes, it is.  And that would include many of us who predicted less than 70 wins for the season.  We are now beginning to make trades of players who are at all productive, meaning that just like last year, the 2nd half record is likely to be uglier than the first half.  Last year the Cubs reached the halfway point at 31-50, and then went 30-51 the rest of the year, but the 2nd half also benefited from a Rizzo callup.  This year there is no similarly productive hitter in the minors to improve things.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on July 03, 2013, 08:57:42 am
I predict that even with some selling off, the Cubs will be better than 35-46 the rest of the way, and they'll finish somewhere in the 72-75 win range.  They've been a far better team than their record shows in the first half...so even with some selling off, they can be better than that in the second half.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cactus on July 03, 2013, 09:09:34 am
The Cubs lead the majors with 17 blown saves.  Eight pitchers have contributed to that total.  With Carlos Marmol gone and Shawn Camp soon to follow, that should pick up a handful of wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on July 03, 2013, 09:12:43 am
brjones, earlier this season you were predicting they would be in the hunt, as soon as the gods of the run differential figured out how badly luck and misfortune were treating them.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on July 03, 2013, 01:37:02 pm
They will continue to be awful, trade away Matt Garza and at least one of their best offensive players, leading to more losses because of their pathetic bullpen, which will be further weakened by more trades.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on August 27, 2013, 08:46:37 am
The Cubs are 13-25 since the All-Star Break.

The predictions at the lower end of the scale are looking pretty good right now.  If our current pace of play continues, we'll win another 10-11 games this year, which puts us at 65-66 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on August 27, 2013, 09:08:39 am
66 baby
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on August 27, 2013, 10:00:54 am
The Cubs are 13-25 since the All-Star Break.

The predictions at the lower end of the scale are looking pretty good right now.  If our current pace of play continues, we'll win another 10-11 games this year, which puts us at 65-66 wins.

Hmmmm.... what was it I predicted?

Oh, yea, 65 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on August 27, 2013, 01:43:43 pm
And that Obama was toast.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on August 27, 2013, 01:45:26 pm
And that Obama was toast.
LMAO
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on August 27, 2013, 02:01:29 pm
And that Obama was toast.

Classic!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on August 27, 2013, 02:53:52 pm
And that Obama was toast.

He would have been... if the Republican leaning voting groups turned out in 2012 at the same rate they had in 2008.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on August 27, 2013, 04:43:25 pm
Quote
And that Obama was toast.

We are no longer accepting nominations for DMF's Post of the Year award.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Coach on August 27, 2013, 04:56:21 pm
I'll put my cyber bucks on a complete bed-crap.  61.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on August 28, 2013, 01:16:14 pm
now he can predict the outcome of national elections? really?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on September 29, 2013, 04:53:08 pm
How many games will the Cubs win in 2013?

59 - JeffH           
63 - Strikezone
65-  Chiman
65 - Jes Beard
66 - Robb
       
67 - Andy MacFail
67-  Cubsin
67 - FITS
68 - grrrrlacher
68 - Dihard
69 - papa smurf
69 - Santo4HofF
69 - JR     
70 - bitterman
70 - jacey1           
71 - Cactus         
71 - Deeg   
71 - shasson
72 - ticohans
73 - DelMarFan         
74 - Ray
75 - Ron Green           
78 - brjones         
81 - AZSteve
82 - davep   

Entries are now closed   

looks like Robb was correct. 

Congrats.




Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on September 29, 2013, 05:58:57 pm
Curse my puckish optimism.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 29, 2013, 06:09:16 pm
looks like Robb was correct. 

Congrats.

Yeah way to go Robb.  66 wins.  Nice job.  I'm really happy.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 29, 2013, 06:09:23 pm
Man this season sucked.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on September 29, 2013, 06:12:20 pm
How far out are we from Epstein's initial suicide attempt?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on September 29, 2013, 06:35:39 pm
82 wins.... what in the world was davep smokin'?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on September 29, 2013, 08:16:11 pm
I would have won if they had won 16 more games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on September 29, 2013, 08:18:20 pm
I'd like to thank all the little people.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on September 29, 2013, 08:31:59 pm
I'd like to thank all the little people.

Darwin Barney did help your cause.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on September 30, 2013, 04:27:50 pm
Didn't I make a prediction?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on September 30, 2013, 04:50:33 pm
Didn't I make a prediction?

Yes you did.

At least two of them, in fact.

Ill say 70-92.

At least we wont lose 100.

Then, before spring training or any real personnel moves, you felt they improved.

They look to me about like a 76-86 team.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on September 30, 2013, 08:05:08 pm
I guessed 66 too, but decided not to post it until now.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 18, 2014, 03:18:41 pm
Time for predictions yet?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 18, 2014, 03:24:00 pm
I'm tempted to say 60 because this team just has no expectations at all coming into this season and knows it has nothing to play for.

Maybe Castro and Rizzo will improve enough and maybe the pitching will be good enough to get this team to 65 wins, though. 

I'll say 65.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 18, 2014, 03:25:33 pm
The pitching will be horrible.  I'll say 63.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on March 18, 2014, 03:31:54 pm
69 I think the pitching won't be as bad as some think
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 18, 2014, 03:38:48 pm
I think on paper, they're weaker than last year...but I think they also underachieved a lot last year due to a bad bullpen and fluky bad clutch stats.  Baseball Prospectus' adjusted standings report indicates they could have been a 74-76 win team last year if they had not run into so much negative variance. 

With an improved bullpen, better luck, and the chance to improve as the season goes on as prospects make their debuts, I'm going to go out on a limb and saying 72 wins. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 18, 2014, 04:49:24 pm
70 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 18, 2014, 04:54:32 pm
63-99
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 18, 2014, 06:01:41 pm
69
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 18, 2014, 06:06:13 pm
unwatchable
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 18, 2014, 06:18:50 pm
66
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on March 18, 2014, 06:43:05 pm
60.....the offense is going to be a car crashing into a train wreck.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 18, 2014, 07:19:58 pm
I predict they will do poorly enough for a top 3 draft pick.  63-99.  If Edwin Jackson improves enough to make much difference in the W/L record, he will be traded for prospects and the 2014 W/L record will actually end up the worse for it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 18, 2014, 07:27:01 pm
Worse than 59-103.  They set a franchise record for losses.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 18, 2014, 08:31:08 pm
Epstein calls a press conference in Grant Park and blows his brains out in front of all the attendees.

His last words are "I didn't know.  I just didn't understand."
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 18, 2014, 08:38:02 pm
81 - 81
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 18, 2014, 08:41:40 pm
Are you on dope?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Santo4HofF on March 18, 2014, 09:30:42 pm
66
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 18, 2014, 09:38:30 pm
Santo!  Long time no see!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 18, 2014, 10:14:59 pm
It warms my heart to see Jes predict the same record as me.

He must think Im smart.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 19, 2014, 11:26:34 am
68
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on March 19, 2014, 11:35:22 am
67
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 19, 2014, 01:19:50 pm
70
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on March 19, 2014, 01:53:52 pm
73
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Scoop on March 19, 2014, 02:06:10 pm
53
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FITS on March 19, 2014, 03:07:13 pm
53

Ha!  Nice.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 19, 2014, 04:00:28 pm
53

That would still be two more wins than the Astros in 2013.

53 and 81.  I think we have the outer range of predictions with those two.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 19, 2014, 04:08:05 pm
53 and 81.  I think we have the outer range of predictions with those two.

JBN still hasn't chimed in yet.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: papa smurf on March 19, 2014, 04:11:49 pm
It is always 0
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 19, 2014, 04:13:56 pm
And he may not.  He hasn't posted so far this year.

And what ever happened to Sailorgirl?  She never seemed to make the move, or at least not with he earlier username.

Did JBN kill her?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 19, 2014, 10:19:34 pm
Realistically, 53 is more likely than 81.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on March 19, 2014, 10:46:43 pm



67-95


Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: ticohans on March 21, 2014, 11:44:43 am
70
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 28, 2014, 04:08:23 pm
Revising to 73
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 28, 2014, 08:48:43 pm
70+ wins?  Are you on **** dope?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 28, 2014, 09:42:29 pm
Hope springs eternal.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2014, 11:53:31 pm
69, with the second half being must watch.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on March 29, 2014, 06:47:54 am
72-90
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: BullingersEars on March 29, 2014, 10:14:56 am
I'll take 59-103 please!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 29, 2014, 11:56:19 pm
74
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AZSteve on March 30, 2014, 03:37:03 pm
Hopin for a 81 winx
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron Green on March 31, 2014, 12:20:09 am
73 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: PRCubFan on March 31, 2014, 08:05:06 am
I'll be optimistic and go with 70 wins. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on March 31, 2014, 08:57:13 am
57
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on March 31, 2014, 09:24:35 am
Fangraphs and/or PECOTA revised their projections for the Cubs to 75 wins, so I'll go with that because of, uh, science.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 31, 2014, 09:57:01 am
75 wins!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Tuffy on March 31, 2014, 12:13:38 pm
65-97, with more than 20 of their 32-game imbalance coming in the second half
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 31, 2014, 04:55:42 pm
Fangraphs and/or PECOTA revised their projections for the Cubs to 75 wins, so I'll go with that because of, uh, science.

PECOTA has no adjustment for mid-season trades.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on April 02, 2014, 08:11:13 pm
To clarify, 72-90 was my prediction of the number of runs they will score this season.  90 if there is no sell off.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 08, 2014, 11:53:43 pm
Just to revisit predictions, the Cubs at their current .444 winning percentage are on pace to win close to 72 games.  Finishing the season 8-10 also gets them to 72 wins, which is about how they've been playing since the all-star break.

Right now, tico looks like he's in pretty good shape to win this thing.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 08, 2014, 11:56:43 pm
Actually it looks like ECF is the only one who predicted 72 wins.  Sorry tico, I was looking at least year's predictions I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on September 15, 2014, 10:44:16 am
If the Cubs go 4-9 the rest of the way I will be right on the money two years in a row.  What do I win?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 15, 2014, 11:05:49 am
A high five from CurtOne. 

Obviously not much.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on September 15, 2014, 09:06:22 pm
If the Cubs go 4-9 the rest of the way I will be right on the money two years in a row.  What do I win?


DaveP will send you (postage collect) the "KC Cougars foam finger" he purchased and planned to give to CurtOne if he drew his name in this year's Secret Santa.

(http://cougars.milbstore.com/store/Vendor167/300/foam_finger_300.jpg)





Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 28, 2014, 09:41:44 pm
It looks like Cubsin, DMF, and Ron Green are this year's prediction winners at 73 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on September 28, 2014, 10:32:18 pm
I was pleasantly surprised by this year's win total.

Which shows you how jaded I am as a fan.

Next year, I hope they surpass 73 wins in early September, if not sooner.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on September 28, 2014, 11:40:41 pm
It looks like Cubsin, DMF, and Ron Green are this year's prediction winners at 73 wins.

While all three were correct, Cubsin was the first to predict 73 wins so he should win the tie-breaker.

Cubsin send DaveP your mailing address and he'll send you the KC Cougar foam finger (postage collect).

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on September 29, 2014, 08:18:02 am
Yeah nothing says "You won!" like getting the finger from Davep.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on September 29, 2014, 10:46:10 am
I have already crossed out Cougers and wrote in South Bend.

Waste not, want not.

Anyone want to buy a Neife Perez rookie card with Ernie Banks picture pasted onto it?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on September 29, 2014, 11:41:15 am
I was going to ask what I win, but I think I won't.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on September 29, 2014, 01:08:29 pm
can you post a list of who predicted what?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on September 29, 2014, 01:49:09 pm
I think I predicted 63 and 99.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 29, 2014, 04:06:51 pm
Here are this year's predictions:



davep – 81
AZSteve – 81
shasson – 75
CurtOne - 75
Bennett - 74
Cubsin – 73
Ron Green - 73

DelMarFan - 73

brjones – 72
Eastcoastfan - 72
Chiman – 70
jacey1 – 70
ticohans – 70
PRCubFan - 70
papa smurf – 69
CUBluejays - 69
Robb – 69
FITS – 67
AndyMacFAIL - 67
Deeg – 66
Santo4HofF - 66
JR – 65
Tuffy - 65
grrrrlacher – 63
Jes Beard - 63
DUSTY – 63
bitterman – 60
JeffH – 59
BullingersEars – 59
StrikeZone - 57
Scoop - 53
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on September 29, 2014, 05:01:50 pm
Well, there were two games they SHOULD have won.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on January 21, 2015, 12:58:03 pm
This Kool-Aid is delicious.  88 wins.

(Subject to revision at the end of spring training.)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on January 21, 2015, 01:13:17 pm
too early yet to make my prediction for the season
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 21, 2015, 01:24:13 pm
Especially once James Shields falls in our lap.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on January 21, 2015, 01:57:26 pm
101.  Book it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on January 21, 2015, 03:12:01 pm
I'm going with 90 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 21, 2015, 03:26:31 pm
Ill decide a little closer to opening day.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on January 21, 2015, 03:56:45 pm
Still too early for predictions, but if Hoyer is right about the roster not changing much from where it is now, I'll say 86 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on January 21, 2015, 04:56:15 pm
As of now ... 78 wins.  But obviously too early to put in predictions.  Many here have way too much faith in rookies.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 21, 2015, 05:04:20 pm
Agree about the rookies.

Im pretty confident in Bryant and Soler and to an extent AA but I dont see how you can realistically expect anything from Baez.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 21, 2015, 05:13:41 pm
There is one thing you can expect from Baez this season -- that he will not break with the major league team.  Many here have problems with that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on January 21, 2015, 06:58:15 pm
Probably the same ones that heard that Obama was toast.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on January 21, 2015, 09:58:35 pm
Too early to say but I'm much more optimistic than I have been in many a year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 26, 2015, 03:49:13 pm
I'll guess 85.  (Shot at 90 if things go right; maybe 75-78 wins if things don't.) 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: FDISK on January 26, 2015, 06:27:43 pm
Too early to predict.

But how about a REAL contest?  How many strikeouts will Baez have in the MLs this season?

Incorporates so many trendy variables, like:
1. Will Baez break with the team?
2. Will Baez be useful enough to get significant ML playing time?
3. If so, will he suddenly develop a different  batting philosophy?
4. Can toast lay off the high fastball

Predicting wins has a 0-162 spread.  Predicting Baez ML Ks could range anywhere from zero to Adam Dunn.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 26, 2015, 06:28:23 pm
I'll guess Adam Dunn.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 26, 2015, 06:30:54 pm
I would bet on Baez at 50 K's or less in the majors this season.  I think there is a very good chance he will not be called back up until September, and breaking 50 K's in September play alone might be impressive even for Baez.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on January 26, 2015, 07:23:16 pm
"It's too early to predict" is assumed.  These are preliminary guesses, subject to revision during spring training.  It's just something else to talk about while things are slow.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on January 26, 2015, 10:04:39 pm
91 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on January 26, 2015, 11:36:23 pm
88
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on January 27, 2015, 12:57:13 pm
84-78
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on January 27, 2015, 01:07:21 pm
wow davep....you must be feeling good about the coming season  :)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 27, 2015, 01:15:08 pm
54--108
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on January 27, 2015, 02:48:31 pm
wow davep....you must be feeling good about the coming season  :)

I will give a real prediction at the end of spring training.  The central division could be be the strongest in the National League, and it is quite possible that the Cubs, Cards, Pirates and Brewers beat each other up enough to reduce the record of the winner.

And of course, everything depends upon the kids on offense, and it is likely that some will falter in spring training.  But I wouldn't rule out that many wins at this point.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 27, 2015, 02:50:19 pm
85-77
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JBN on January 27, 2015, 04:37:42 pm
70 wins.

Baez 260 K's
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 27, 2015, 04:41:25 pm
If he played everyday I could see 300.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 27, 2015, 05:13:59 pm
....And of course, everything depends upon the kids on offense, and it is likely that some will falter in spring training.  But I wouldn't rule out that many wins at this point.

You've made that point before, Dave, and I don't think I agree.  Everything does NOT depend on the kids, or at least not on kids Baez and Alcantara.  I think  both Baez and Alcantara could hypothetically look as lost as in September, but the team could still be a playoff team.  The bullpen might be terrific and the rotation very good.  Even if Baez and Alcantara contribute nothing, the offense with Rizzo and Castro and Montero and Fowler and La Stella and Coghlan still has a chance to be playoff-sufficient if the pitching turns out favorably. 

The two "kids" who are relatively pivotal are Soler and Bryant.  But Soler has already been very good.  It's reasonable to not only hope but expect him to be reasonably good next year, with the chance to be very good. 

That really only leaves kid Bryant needing to be decent for us to have a realistic chance to be pretty good. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 27, 2015, 05:19:08 pm
I think a lot of teams would be willing to have their chances hinge on Bryant being reasonably decent going forward. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on January 27, 2015, 06:03:18 pm
But Soler has already been very good.  It's reasonable to not only hope but expect him to be reasonably good next year, with the chance to be very good.

Eliminate Soler's first four games and here is his hitting line: .243/.284/.432/.716

I also hope he does well, but there is ample reason for serious concern about him in 2015.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on January 27, 2015, 06:05:12 pm
It is certainly an overstatement to place all the uncertainty on the kids.  But I think the risk of the offense failing (being lower than expected) is greater than the risk of the pitching failing.  You have mentioned several times that bull pen performance is very uncertain from year to year.  And it is.  But I think there is far more uncertainty in the projected performance of prospects than there is in the bull pen, and far more than in the starting pitchers.  I think there is a greater likelihood of Bryant and Soler underperforming than there is of Lester and Arrieta underperforming (ignoring the possiblilty of injury to any of the four).

I have already assumed that Baez will not be a substantial performer this upcoming year, and I have assumed that Alcantara will not reach anywhere his ceiling in the upcoming year.  If that is true, it is almost mandatory that both Soler and Bryant be top performers in order for the offense to carry the team.

Regardless, we should have a better idea of expected performance of just about everybody by the end of spring training.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 27, 2015, 06:57:12 pm
Yeah, that's fair, Dave.  I think it's a given that the offense isn't going to carry the team.  The pitching will need to be the strength, but I don't think it's unreasonable that the offense can be decent.  Last year, it certainly was not. 

I think our bullpen is so deep that I'll be really disappointed if it isn't quite good.  And the rotation might not be good, but it's got a chance to be pretty strong, I think, especially if it's backed by a good, deep bullpen such that the starters don't get stretched too deep. 

If the pitching is really good, it doesn't take a great offense to finish among the top ten teams and get into the playoffs.  There aren't ten teams in the game that have above-average offense, above-average rotation, and above-average relief.  If both rotation and bullpen are above average, the hitting doesn't need to be more than average to make top ten. 

I agree that both Soler and Bryant both need to be OK.  jes mentioned Soler posting .716 OPS after his first 4 games.  That probably wouldn't be very good.  But if both Soler and Bryant could support .750+ OPS seasons, I think the offense could be average enough to support good rotation/pen and get into the wildcard.  Maybe better.


Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on January 27, 2015, 07:16:49 pm
I think that we are looking at it from two completely different viewpoints. 

I will be rather disappointed if the Cubs totally fail to get to the playoffs, and extremely disappointed if they are not within reach of the playoffs for most of the year.  But I think that in order for them to have one of the better teams in the playoffs, based upon personnel, they will have to have very good performances by most of the kids, as well as a career year by one or more of the "veterans" on the team.  Put another way, I think there is a reasonable chance that the Cubs will have a team that performs about the 10th best in baseball.  Having a team that performs about 2nd best will require everything to break perfectly, and is extremely against the odds.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 27, 2015, 08:23:41 pm
Agree that there's a big difference between slipping in as a wildcard, around the 10th best team in baseball, as compared to truly being one of the top 3-4 teams in the game.  Different to slip in as a wildcard, as opposed to being one of the teams people honestly expect has as good a chance to win the world series as anybody else, and perhaps better than most of the other playoff teams. 

I think we're kind of contrasting the Cub playoffs teams of 1984, 2003, and 2008, each of which looked like legit serious powers; versus the 1989, 1998, and 2007 versions, where it was nice to get in but I didn't really think any of those teams were on par with the other playoff teams. 

I agree that Bryant and/or Soler will need to look like pretty serious players this year to be in the top handful.  And probably one or two from the Hammel/Hendricks/Wood/Wada crowd will need to sustain a pretty good year.  Not probable.  But possible enough for me to be pretty interested. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on January 27, 2015, 08:30:36 pm
I'll point out that both World Series teams this year slipped in as the 7th and 8th (tied with two others) best teams in baseball.

And the team that was 8th (or 9th or 10th, depending on how you rank the Giants, Pirates, and A's) won the World Series.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 27, 2015, 08:39:05 pm
A whole third make the playoffs?   
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on January 27, 2015, 08:39:21 pm
I'd like to point out Soler only played 24 games in the majors.  I'm pretty sure I could look at 24 games for Mike Trout take away his 4 best games and have a worse OPS than what Soler put up.  I'm optimistic that Soler will do well, but 24 games in the majors have little to do with it. 

If the Cubs just have league average starters to go with Rizzo, Castro and Fowler the offense will be fine.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on January 27, 2015, 09:07:26 pm
The Cubs could have a totally different looking offense this year.  They were really bad in OBP last year, and gave a ton of the AB's to sub-.300 OBP guys.  If Montero can stay healthy, and if Bryant earns his way up, (likely), and if either La Stella starts at 2nd or else Alcantara improves a lot, it seems well possible that we could/should have .300-OBP regulars at all 8 starting positions.  That could be a big change.  And while that may seem like a modest standard, the Cubs weren't the only team playing a lot of sub-.300 guys.  The NL OBP average was only .312, and there were six NL teams with a team OBP of .305 or worse.  The Cubs at .300 weren't even the worst in the league.  Of the five teams with a .320 team OBP, four of them made the playoffs.  (Colorado didn't.  The world champion Giants of course were the NL team who slipped in without a .320 OBP.) 

We'll see, but I'm not sure it's unrealistic for the Cubs as a team to be more .320's than .300 this year, if Montero can stay healthy.  (If it's David Ross four days a week, and whatever scrub we've recalled from Iowa the other three, catcher could be a total black hole.  That is, unless we keep Castillo....)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on January 27, 2015, 09:12:41 pm
I don't expect the Bulls to beat the Warriors tonight.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 19, 2015, 09:45:59 pm
Bold prediction: this is the year Dexter Fowler puts it all together and produces a random 4+ WAR season. 

When the Cubs clinch a playoff spot, we'll look back at the Fowler acquisition as the move that put the Cubs over the top.  The Lester deal will obviously have the biggest impact, but they were still a little short of being a real contender until they got Fowler.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 19, 2015, 10:42:53 pm
I like Fowler too.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 20, 2015, 01:11:47 pm
My official prediction for wins this season.......83
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 20, 2015, 01:30:02 pm
I've been pessimistic the last two years but this year I'm signing up for the koolaid.  I say everything comes together just right and the Cubs win 91 games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 20, 2015, 01:41:00 pm
Looks like I won't be the highest this year.  I predict 90 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 20, 2015, 01:41:22 pm
You're high all the time.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on March 20, 2015, 03:02:36 pm

2015 Cubs:  75 wins   (75 - 87)

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 20, 2015, 03:05:06 pm
89 wins, Bryant ROY, Rizzo in talk for MVP, Arrieta in talk for Cy Young, Maddon Manager of the Year, fall in first round of playoffs
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 20, 2015, 03:07:19 pm
88 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 20, 2015, 03:16:19 pm
85
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AZSteve on March 20, 2015, 03:50:56 pm
87
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 20, 2015, 03:56:01 pm
88 and playoffs.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 20, 2015, 04:29:02 pm
Ill say 90 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 20, 2015, 04:41:05 pm
Bold prediction: this is the year Dexter Fowler puts it all together and produces a random 4+ WAR season. 

When the Cubs clinch a playoff spot, we'll look back at the Fowler acquisition as the move that put the Cubs over the top.  The Lester deal will obviously have the biggest impact, but they were still a little short of being a real contender until they got Fowler.

I hope you are right, but I suspect he will more likely end up being the 2015 version of Johnny Callison in 1970, or Lou Johnson in 1968.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on March 20, 2015, 07:23:31 pm
I'm not buying it.

14
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 20, 2015, 10:56:45 pm
I'm not buying it.

14

14 wins?

14?

I think I would take the over on that bet.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 20, 2015, 11:03:37 pm
I'm not buying it.

14

I can't imagine a better way for the Cubs to pay tribute to Ernie Banks' legacy than that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 20, 2015, 11:04:32 pm
I guarantee they will win 14 games this year.  Possibly in April.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 23, 2015, 01:13:45 pm

2015 Cubs:  75 wins   (75 - 87)


Ya know, in my gut, I feel this is probably more like what their record will be this year, But I went with my number trying to be optomistic
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on March 23, 2015, 02:27:40 pm
87
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on March 23, 2015, 02:31:21 pm
78....overrated....
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 23, 2015, 07:02:51 pm
80
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: buff on March 23, 2015, 08:27:32 pm
86 and we win a playoff series
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 23, 2015, 09:17:10 pm
Last year it took 88 wins in each league to make the playoffs, though 86 wins would have made it in the NL, it would have fallen short in the AL.

In 2013 it would have fallen short in both leagues.  The same in 2012 and 2011.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 23, 2015, 09:37:06 pm
I said 85 first and then I bumped it up to 90.

Me knowing this board if I do get it right I know I wont get credit because some will **** and say I made two picks but I will stick at 90.

I dont know if we're world series contenders but I do believe we'll be pretty strong.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on March 24, 2015, 11:12:24 am
I've been pessimistic the last two years but this year I'm signing up for the koolaid.  I say everything comes together just right and the Cubs win 91 games.
Looks like I won't be the highest this year.  I predict 90 wins.

HELLO!!!  Mine still stands!


101.  Book it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Scoop on March 24, 2015, 01:48:55 pm
59 Wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 24, 2015, 04:19:07 pm
I would very happily bet the under on wmljohn's pediction and the over on Scoop's.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 03, 2015, 05:08:34 pm
85-77.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on April 03, 2015, 06:34:14 pm
I'm going to stick with 88 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on April 05, 2015, 02:39:42 pm
I'm watching MLB Network's preview/prediction show.  Like a lot of the experts I've seen or read since Friday, I think they like the Marlins far too much.  The three people on the show (DeRosa, Pleasac, and the third host) were unanimous in selecting them as a wild card, but I'm just not seeing it.  Their outfield is right there with the Pirates as the best in MLB.  But their pitching is mediocre (especially the rotation), and their infield is pretty weak. 

I feel like everyone is projecting them assuming three things: (1) they're getting close to peak Latos and Haren (not declining, injury-prone Latos and barely-hanging-on Haren); (2) Gordon and (to a lesser extent) Morse are as valuable in real life as they are in fantasy, and (3) Fernandez will be 100% as soon as he comes off the DL.  The only reason not to completely dismiss the Marlins is because they get to beat up on the Braves and Phillies all year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Exile236 on April 05, 2015, 04:03:38 pm
I'm going to stick with 88 wins.

Seconded.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on April 05, 2015, 04:41:15 pm
I'm going to be optimistic and say they'll be on the fringe of the wild card contention hunt well into the second half but fade down the stretch and end up with 83 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on April 05, 2015, 04:51:47 pm
88 wins.  Wainwright has arm problems all year and Molina shows his age.  In Pittsburgh, the loss of Martin hurts them more than expected--Liriano is especially impacted.  Cubs win the division with the Pirates and Cardinals taking the two wild cards.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on April 05, 2015, 05:02:36 pm
86
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on April 05, 2015, 05:15:59 pm
85
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on April 05, 2015, 06:37:23 pm
74-88
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 05, 2015, 07:17:48 pm
Jon Lester has just delivered the first pitch of the season (a called strike on Matt Carpenter) so any further predictions should not be counted in this year's contest.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 05, 2015, 07:53:41 pm
0 - 162
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JBN on April 05, 2015, 08:00:42 pm
68

That's if they get lucky.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on April 07, 2015, 06:25:09 pm
I'm taking April 24 in the When Will Bryant Be Called Up Pool.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on April 07, 2015, 06:26:57 pm
I'm taking April 24 in the When Will Bryant Be Called Up Pool.

Oh, are we doing this?

If so, I've got May 1st.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 07, 2015, 06:29:22 pm
I'll take the over on both of those.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on April 08, 2015, 03:51:23 pm
Arrieta is going to win the NL Cy Young this year. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 08, 2015, 09:57:41 pm
1 - 161
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on April 13, 2015, 07:11:34 pm
Predict the date of Bryant's call up.

June 5, 2015
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 13, 2015, 07:47:08 pm
May 3.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on April 13, 2015, 07:49:22 pm
I had thought all offseason that it would be April 20.  But now that Olt and La Stella are both hurt, it's going to be the first day where they gain an extra year--this Friday, April 17.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on April 13, 2015, 08:00:38 pm
April 24, 2015.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 13, 2015, 10:31:26 pm
Cubs on a pace to win 107.9999 games
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Reb on April 14, 2015, 12:08:46 am
Jesse Rogers notes the following:

One more factor to consider is an end-of-season tie for the playoffs. That would extend the regular season up to several days adding service time to Bryant potentially giving him a full year if he comes up this Friday. As slim as that possibility is -- combined with the trend of starting rookies on the road -- it makes his debut more likely to happen next week at the earliest.

Like Theo hasn't thought of that, right?  A Cubs tie for the playoffs, extending Bryant's regular season service time opportunities.  We can't have that.

So, forget about Friday or this weekend.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 14, 2015, 10:31:35 am
A reasonable decision.  One week this year is not more valuable than a full year later on.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 14, 2015, 10:49:09 am
Just don't put him on the post-season roster.  I'm sure that wouldn't cause a grievance.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 17, 2015, 06:47:51 am
Predict the uniform number for Kris Bryant.

He wore 23 in college but that's retired.  He wore #76 this spring. Lowest number that's not assigned is #6.  I'm guessing they give him number 12.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: EightyTwo on April 17, 2015, 06:57:12 am
Predict the uniform number for Kris Bryant.

He wore 23 in college but that's retired.  He wore #76 this spring. Lowest number that's not assigned is #6.  I'm guessing they give him number 12.

In Dusty we trusty!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on April 17, 2015, 07:04:20 am
17
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on April 17, 2015, 08:43:19 am
Not 21
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: shasson on April 17, 2015, 08:49:53 am
Agreed, 17 for sure (bench coach Brandon Hyde will give it to him)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on April 17, 2015, 08:50:33 am
17
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 17, 2015, 08:51:35 am
Something between 16 and 18
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Exile236 on April 17, 2015, 09:09:48 am
Bryant 2 for 4 with his first homer.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 17, 2015, 10:01:12 am
Jenkins and Maddox both wore the same number.  Obviously, they will give Bryant number 14, to show that he is the reincarnation of Ernie.

On the other hand, if they give him Neifi's old number, that probably isn't a good sign.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: EightyTwo on April 17, 2015, 10:17:33 am
Castro already has Neifi's number.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on April 17, 2015, 11:55:06 am
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCy9iKkVAAAOMl4.jpg)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on April 17, 2015, 11:56:50 am
So Mark Grace will eventually get his number retired!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: StrikeZone on April 17, 2015, 12:00:56 pm
Do they retire inmates' numbers?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on April 17, 2015, 01:01:11 pm
Wow, I guess they're already selling Bryant #17 jerseys.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 17, 2015, 05:15:05 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCy9iKkVAAAOMl4.jpg)

Yea, I'll go with predicting he gets number 17.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 17, 2015, 07:02:54 pm
Wow, I guess they're already selling Bryant #17 jerseys.


They probably starting making them 12 days ago.



Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 17, 2015, 08:24:50 pm

They probably starting making them 12 days ago.

And if you pull the Bryant off, it says Grace underneath.




Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on April 28, 2015, 07:42:14 am
The Cubs are currently on a 98 win pace.  Who had 98 wins?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on April 28, 2015, 08:18:08 am
The Cubs are currently on a 98 win pace.  Who had 98 wins?

Must have been either jbn or Chris
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on April 28, 2015, 11:30:59 am
Or Bitterman?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on September 09, 2015, 12:39:35 am
Now having a mark of 80-57, the Cubs have made me one of the first to have their prediction reached.   What do I win?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Reb on September 09, 2015, 01:36:51 am
The Cubs are currently on a 98 win pace.  Who had 98 wins?

94.6.  Not 98.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on September 09, 2015, 09:50:13 am
Check the date.  That post was in April.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: buff on September 09, 2015, 10:00:50 am
Curts prediction is pretty accurate in fpost 323. Going to be short on wins but Bryant ROY and Maddon MOY should happen.  He also said Arrietta would be in Cy Young talk and that is certainly the case as is Rizzo in MVP conversation. Good job Curt
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on September 09, 2015, 10:04:32 am
What do you mean "good job"?  Curt cheated.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on September 10, 2015, 11:29:23 am
Am I still alive with the 101 win prediction I had?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on September 10, 2015, 11:31:37 am
OK.  They need to go 21-3 for my prediction to come true.

THEY CAN DO IT STILL!!!!   ;D
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on September 21, 2015, 10:39:56 pm
87
I was under:)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on September 22, 2015, 09:49:07 pm
88 wins.

I lose, and I'm happy I was low.  I was hit-or-miss on the specifics in the rest of the post:

Wainwright has arm problems all year and Molina shows his age.  In Pittsburgh, the loss of Martin hurts them more than expected--Liriano is especially impacted.  Cubs win the division with the Pirates and Cardinals taking the two wild cards
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on September 23, 2015, 07:25:59 am
I figured that they'd be around .500.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on September 23, 2015, 10:33:16 am
I said 91 thinking it was optimistic.   Glad I was wrong.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on September 23, 2015, 01:05:19 pm
They outdid what I thought was realistic for them this year..GLAD
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: EightyTwo on October 04, 2015, 04:57:09 pm
No one picked 97 wins???
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on October 04, 2015, 04:57:37 pm
No one picked 97 wins???

Shocking, isn't it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on October 08, 2015, 07:34:21 am
Was my 101 closest?

With Playoff wins they could still get there.  I hope they pass it.   ;D
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on October 08, 2015, 08:34:35 am
Was my 101 closest?

With Playoff wins they could still get there.  I hope they pass it.   ;D

I hope under :)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on October 16, 2015, 06:58:48 pm
OK.  Now they have 101 wins.  I win.  No one predicted more so I will be the closest when they end the season at 109 wins.

GO CUBS.

BTW who do I collect the cash prize from?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on October 16, 2015, 07:13:55 pm
I predicted 102 wins, but CurtOne edited and changed my post because he is evil.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on October 16, 2015, 07:31:37 pm
And that only cost me 5% of the cash prize... ;D
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on October 16, 2015, 07:51:39 pm
I was wrong.  Greed is not evil.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on October 17, 2015, 11:46:28 am
Quote from: Bruce Miles
In battle of sabermetrics, Cubs clobber Mets

NEW YORK -- Back in the 1980s, the sabermetrics revolution really took off, thanks to Bill James publishing his annual Baseball Abstract.

In one of his editions, he came up with a formula for predicting the winner of postseason series. Given the advancements in sabermetrics today, this formula seems quaint. Let's put it to work for the National League championship series between the Cubs and Mets:

• Give 1 point per half-game difference in record. The Cubs finished the regular season 97-65 while the Mets were 90-72. That's 14 points to the Cubs.

• Give 3 points to the team with more runs scored. Award 3 to the Cubs.

• Give 14 points to the team with fewer doubles. (Back in the day, James warned "not to bet a dime on a team that hits a lot of doubles.") Award 14 to the Cubs.

• Give 12 points to the team with more triples. That's 12 for the Cubs.

• Give 10 points to the team with more home runs. The Mets get on the board with 10 points.

• Give 8 points to the team with the lower batting average. Each team hit .244, so that's a wash.

• Give 8 points to the team with fewer errors. The Mets get 8.

• Give 7 points to the team that turned more double plays. That's 7 for the Mets.

• Give 7 points to the team whose pitchers walked more batters. The Cubs get the 7.

• Give 19 points to the team with more shutouts. Award 19 to the Cubs.

• Give 15 points to the team with the lower ERA. The Cubs edged the Mets, 3.36 to 3.43 to give the Cubs 15 points.

• Give 12 points to the team in postseason play more recently. That would be 2008 for the Cubs to 2006 for the Mets, although both teams have changed completely. But by the formula, the Cubs get 12 points.

• Give 12 points to the team that led in head-to-head competition. The Cubs swept the season series from the Mets, but four of those games were in May, and three were in July. The Mets look quite a bit different now, but the Cubs get the 12 points.

Adding it all up, the Cubs win by a landslide, 101 points to 25.

Does it mean anything for the NLCS? Maybe. Maybe not, but let's see how it all adds up when the games are played.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on October 17, 2015, 05:51:03 pm
Give 8 points to the team with the lower batting average.

More than a bit counter-intuitive.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on November 18, 2015, 05:52:37 pm
Arrieta is going to win the NL Cy Young this year. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on November 18, 2015, 06:44:27 pm
88 wins.  Wainwright has arm problems all year and Molina shows his age.  In Pittsburgh, the loss of Martin hurts them more than expected--Liriano is especially impacted.  Cubs win the division with the Pirates and Cardinals taking the two wild cards.


Nothing like patting yourself on the back.   ::)     ::) 

Just don't cherry pick the predictions you got right.   ;D     ;D





Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on November 18, 2015, 06:46:59 pm
I don't know how many predictions BR made, but picking Arrieta to win the Cy Young award was certainly not the odds on favorite.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on November 18, 2015, 07:05:55 pm
Just don't cherry pick the predictions you got right.   ;D     ;D

But it's more fun to cherry pick the good ones. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 27, 2016, 07:46:43 am
The Cubs will win 93 games in 2016.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 27, 2016, 08:19:41 am
I predict 95 wins and a division winner.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 27, 2016, 08:23:37 am
102 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on March 27, 2016, 09:33:14 am
I had 101 last year.  I am going 125 this year.    ;D
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 27, 2016, 09:45:57 am
I had 101 last year.  I am going 125 this year.    ;D

I'll make book on the under for that one for anyone wanting to put money down.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on March 27, 2016, 10:48:14 am
14
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 27, 2016, 11:47:00 am
I liked 93, but it's taken so I'll say 92.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 27, 2016, 12:21:32 pm
I'll say 100 exactly.

And the Cardinals finish .500 or worse.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 27, 2016, 12:25:42 pm
105
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: method on March 27, 2016, 12:26:32 pm
86 games miss playoffs.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 27, 2016, 12:36:10 pm
I'm ashamed of all of you.  Win totals implies that they are going to lose some.  Not so.  I predict 162-0, sweep the first playoff series 3-0, sweep the second series, 4-0, win the first three of the World Series, and then lose 4 straight.  Why?  Cuz, we're the Cubs, that's why.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on March 27, 2016, 01:08:27 pm
98
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 27, 2016, 01:22:55 pm
92
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 27, 2016, 01:23:10 pm
Method get outta here.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: method on March 27, 2016, 02:51:09 pm
Method get outta here.

Its within Fangraphs tolerance for a projection. 6 games off.

i think cub fans are really underestimating sophmore growing pains... everyone here seems to think every cub will finish at or above projections. just takes one or 2 injuries to make 86 games seem perfectly reasonable.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 27, 2016, 03:28:18 pm
Ill say 100-62.

The playoffs will depend on health, surprises, and how active we are at the deadline.

After all...you cant script October.

Ill say Rizzo is an MVP candidate, Schwarber leads the team in HRs, Soler gets traded, and Javy finally produces.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 27, 2016, 03:55:48 pm
I was joking, kind of. I am not worried about sophmore slumps.  Each of the core kids struggled last year and showed the ability to adjust. That is how to avoid the sophmore slump.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on March 27, 2016, 04:24:18 pm

78-84

Last year's 248 2/3 innings takes it toll on Jake Arrieta as he falls to 16-12 with an ERA near 3.50.  The sophomore jinx claims one of Russell/Bryant/Schwarber.  Zobrist & Heyward have solid seasons but Anthony Rizzo drops to 26 HRs, 86 RBI,  .260/.356/.466 with an OPS of .823. Either Lester or Lackey spend significant time on the DL.  The Chicago Cubs finish 3rd in the NL Central, 7 games back of the Pirates, as the Cardinals pull another rabbit out of the hat to win the division.  Since it's an even number year, the San Francisco Giants win another World Series title. This time over the New York Yankees as Jeff Samardzija gets a ring.

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Cubsin on March 27, 2016, 08:12:57 pm
95 wins, NL Central champs, World Series winner.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 27, 2016, 08:26:43 pm
94
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 27, 2016, 08:35:27 pm
90
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 28, 2016, 09:49:45 am

78-84

Last year's 248 2/3 innings takes it toll on Jake Arrieta as he falls to 16-12 with an ERA near 3.50.  The sophomore jinx claims one of Russell/Bryant/Schwarber.  Zobrist & Heyward have solid seasons but Anthony Rizzo drops to 26 HRs, 86 RBI,  .260/.356/.466 with an OPS of .823. Either Lester or Lackey spend significant time on the DL.  The Chicago Cubs finish 3rd in the NL Central, 7 games back of the Pirates, as the Cardinals pull another rabbit out of the hat to win the division.  Since it's an even number year, the San Francisco Giants win another World Series title. This time over the New York Yankees as Jeff Samardzija gets a ring.

I hate saying this, but for whatever reason, I have this ominous feeling that things might not go quite as well as some of the hype we're getting.  If Arrieta missed half the season, for instance, we're going from a World Series favorite to a team that has to fight and claw for a wild card spot pretty quickly. 

There's a little bit of this 2004 kind of feeling I have right now.  That team looked great on paper heading into the season and was 5 outs away from the World Series, but all it took was some pitching staff injuries and an offense that was K prone and too reliant on solo home runs to keep that team from going anywhere.  (Granted this year's offense has a little more speed and does a better job getting on base, but still, it's a K prone, HR reliant offense.)

Hopefully that 2004 feeling goes away pretty quickly, though.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on March 28, 2016, 09:58:40 am
98-64

MVP: Jason Heyward
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 28, 2016, 10:09:11 am
It is certainly possible but a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Cubs to go 78-84.  This isn't 2004.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 28, 2016, 10:33:19 am
It is certainly possible but a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Cubs to go 78-84.  This isn't 2004.

Yeah I'd agree with that.  I went with 92 wins, although I certainly hope I'm wrong and it's higher.

Mostly I was sympathizing at least a little bit with the sentiment.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2016, 10:53:37 am
Even if Bryant/Schwarber/Russell/Soler/Baez all struggle.  The Cubs offense will still have Rizzo/Heyward/Zobrist/Fowler/Montero.  A lot of teams would kill for that offensive core.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on March 28, 2016, 11:12:48 am
96.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 28, 2016, 11:38:45 am
94
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on March 28, 2016, 12:48:28 pm
124-38  (damn the 1906 Cubs were good).

Really 104.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 28, 2016, 01:22:07 pm
91 WINS
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: OkieCubsFan on March 28, 2016, 01:43:42 pm
103
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on March 28, 2016, 04:37:39 pm
98
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 28, 2016, 04:47:59 pm
Disregarding the three frivolous predictions, the average of the 21 predictions so far is 95.4
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on March 28, 2016, 05:10:27 pm
Disregarding the three frivolous predictions, the average of the 21 predictions so far is 95.4

Expectations are certainly high, even among those who are normally pretty cranky about the Cubs. Lots of potential for disappointment it seems.  While I don't make specific W-L predictions, I am confident that the Cubs are going to have a very good team, provide lots of excitement and at least get into the playoffs, whatever else happens. Fingers are crossed for much more.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 28, 2016, 05:38:59 pm
Expectations are certainly high, even among those who are normally pretty cranky about the Cubs. Lots of potential for disappointment it seems.  While I don't make specific W-L predictions, I am confident that the Cubs are going to have a very good team, provide lots of excitement and at least get into the playoffs, whatever else happens. Fingers are crossed for much more.
The 95.4 average is less than last year's win total of 97.

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: PRCubFan on March 28, 2016, 05:59:55 pm
I'll go with 94 wins.  A lot went right last year including Arrieta's unbelievable 2nd half where he pretty much won every time he took the mound so I expect our record to be a little worse.  But, I think 94 will be enough to win the division. 

I also think we'll definitely trade for a top 3 starter at the deadline to push Lackey to number 4 in the potential playoff rotation. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AZSteve on March 28, 2016, 07:26:28 pm
97-65 deja vu all over again
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on April 04, 2016, 07:27:02 am
91
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 04, 2016, 04:59:25 pm
91


You're too damn late as the season started yesterday as three games were completed. 

craig's prediction shouldn't count.  >:(  I'm gonna sue if it ends up winning. [/DonaldJ.Trump]

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on April 04, 2016, 06:03:25 pm
And Al Gore.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on April 23, 2016, 08:50:47 am
The Cubs pace of a 124 win season may be a little hard to sustain but my prediction of 93 wins isn't looking very good.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: OkieCubsFan on April 23, 2016, 12:35:51 pm
The Cubs' current Pythagorean ratio would translate to 143 wins.  So they're under-performing expectations so far.  Fire Maddon.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 23, 2016, 12:42:51 pm
The Cubs' current Pythagorean ratio would translate to 143 wins.  So they're under-performing expectations so far.  Fire Maddon.
I agree.  I said 162-0.  I've been in the Fire Maddon camp since loss 1.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 23, 2016, 01:09:07 pm
The Cubs will win 93 games in 2016.
I predict 95 wins and a division winner.
102 wins.
I had 101 last year.  I am going 125 this year.    ;D
14
I liked 93, but it's taken so I'll say 92.
I'll say 100 exactly.
And the Cardinals finish .500 or worse.
105
86 games miss playoffs.
I'm ashamed of all of you.  Win totals implies that they are going to lose some.  Not so.  I predict 162-0, sweep the first playoff series 3-0, sweep the second series, 4-0, win the first three of the World Series, and then lose 4 straight.  Why?  Cuz, we're the Cubs, that's why.
98
92
Ill say 100-62.  The playoffs will depend on health, surprises, and how active we are at the deadline.
After all...you cant script October.  Ill say Rizzo is an MVP candidate, Schwarber leads the team in HRs, Soler gets traded, and Javy finally produces.

78-84
]
Last year's 248 2/3 innings takes it toll on Jake Arrieta as he falls to 16-12 with an ERA near 3.50.  The sophomore jinx claims one of Russell/Bryant/Schwarber.  Zobrist & Heyward have solid seasons but Anthony Rizzo drops to 26 HRs, 86 RBI,  .260/.356/.466 with an OPS of .823. Either Lester or Lackey spend significant time on the DL.  The Chicago Cubs finish 3rd in the NL Central, 7 games back of the Pirates, as the Cardinals pull another rabbit out of the hat to win the division.  Since it's an even number year, the San Francisco Giants win another World Series title. This time over the New York Yankees as Jeff Samardzija gets a ring.
98-64
MVP: Jason Heyward
96.
94
124-38  (damn the 1906 Cubs were good).

Really 104.
91 WINS
103
98

Disregarding the three frivolous predictions, the average of the 21 predictions so far is 95.4

I'll go with 94 wins.  A lot went right last year including Arrieta's unbelievable 2nd half where he pretty much won every time he took the mound so I expect our record to be a little worse.  But, I think 94 will be enough to win the division. 

I also think we'll definitely trade for a top 3 starter at the deadline to push Lackey to number 4 in the potential playoff rotation. 
97-65 deja vu all over again
91

By order in which the predictions were posted:
1 Bennett 93
2 Robb  95
3 Jes Beard 102
4 wmljohn  125
5 mO 14
6 Deeg 92
7 brjones 100
8 grrrrlacher 105
9 method 86
10 CurtOne 162
11 Robert L 98
12 JR 92
13 DUSTY 100
14 AndyMacFAIL 78
15 Dave23 98
16 Dihard 96
17 DelMarFan 94
18 CUBluejays 104
19 jacey1 91
20 OkieCubsFan 103
21 Eastcoastfan 98
22 PRCubFan 94
23 AZSteve 97
24 craig 91

In order of the predicted number of wins:
mO 14
AndyMacFAIL 78
method 86
craig 91
jacey1 91
JR 92
Deeg 92
Bennett 93
PRCubFan 94
DelMarFan 94
Robb  95
Dihard 96
AZSteve 97
Eastcoastfan 98
Robert L 98
Dave23 98
DUSTY 100
brjones 100
Jes Beard 102
OkieCubsFan 103
CUBluejays 104
grrrrlacher 105
wmljohn  125
CurtOne 162

Counting ALL of the predictions, the aggregate win total is 2308, dividing it by 24 the average win total is 96.167.
Taking all but the predictions of Curt (162 wins) and MO (14 wins) as serious, the average is 96.909.
Dropping AndyMcFail and wmljohn, too, (if my prediction of 102 is right, he is closer to the probable record than AndyMcFAIL is at 78 wins) the average is 96.45
The median is 96.5
The mode is 98.

And no, I do not have too much time on my hands today, though I am rather aggressively avoiding some work I have been putting off for some time now....
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on April 23, 2016, 01:10:34 pm
The Cubs aren't going to be playing the likes of the Reds and Cardinals all the time either.  Eventually they'll have to play some real teams.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on April 23, 2016, 01:53:01 pm
Can't believe I was the "high" at 105.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on April 25, 2016, 03:09:33 pm
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on April 25, 2016, 03:12:30 pm
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

Cubs at 102 wins..... where have I seen that prediction before?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on April 25, 2016, 03:27:32 pm
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

Pretty good. Not bad. Can't complain.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on April 25, 2016, 05:09:03 pm
I'd take it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Reb on April 25, 2016, 08:27:44 pm
Pretty good. Not bad. Can't complain.

If Cubs win 102 games, that will reduce # of posts here dramatically.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on April 25, 2016, 09:12:09 pm
I'm confident someone here will remind us all how it could have been 108...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on April 29, 2016, 07:42:41 am
Quote
The Cubs pace of a 124 win season may be a little hard to sustain but my prediction of 93 wins isn't looking very good.

Mine of 125 is looking real good.  Mine was high but serious.  I think they will break many records this year.  Don't discount my great mind from the averages as an outlier.  I won last year and everyone said I was nuts on my prediction.  Remember?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 29, 2016, 08:06:21 am
That isn't why people say you're nuts.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on April 29, 2016, 12:18:08 pm
Bummer that the 5 top teams are all in the NL right now. And that's not including the Pirates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: method on April 29, 2016, 12:28:06 pm
Bummer that the 5 top teams are all in the NL right now. And that's not including the Pirates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

When did the Wsox move to the NL?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 29, 2016, 12:43:08 pm
Di was just talking about major league teams.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on April 29, 2016, 03:25:46 pm
Not sure what all goes in to their overall "Rating," but they have the top 5 currently as Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Nats, Cards.  The White Sox are 10th at the moment.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 02, 2016, 06:58:11 pm
Okie gets the win.  Good job.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on October 02, 2016, 09:23:33 pm
Congratulations, Okie.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on October 03, 2016, 12:06:14 pm
Can you show us what we all predicted at the start of the season? I think i predicted 93
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 03, 2016, 04:48:12 pm
In order of the predicted number of wins:
mO 14
AndyMacFAIL 78
method 86
craig 91
jacey1 91
JR 92
Deeg 92
Bennett 93
PRCubFan 94
DelMarFan 94
Robb  95
Dihard 96
AZSteve 97
Eastcoastfan 98
Robert L 98
Dave23 98
DUSTY 100
brjones 100
Jes Beard 102
OkieCubsFan 103
CUBluejays 104
grrrrlacher 105
wmljohn  125
CurtOne 162
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 03, 2016, 04:48:34 pm
That idiot Curt was way off.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 03, 2016, 04:55:31 pm
We need a new manager.  Losing 59 games is indefensible.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on October 03, 2016, 04:59:44 pm
Good thing we only lost 58...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 03, 2016, 05:11:33 pm
That's right.  Forgot the tie!  Another Maddon blunder!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on October 03, 2016, 06:14:50 pm
Can you show us what we all predicted at the start of the season? I think i predicted 93

How about not only the figures, but the order in which all were made, along with the actual predictions themselves, and then a list of predictions from highest to lowest, as well as the average number of predicted wins, the mean and the mode.... all of which was right on the same page where you asked the question -- http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/predictions/?message=267503

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 30, 2017, 02:37:11 pm
2017 record 107-55
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 30, 2017, 02:40:33 pm
96 wins and this . . .


(https://suntimesmedia.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/sneed10416.jpg?w=670)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: goblue007 on March 30, 2017, 03:06:20 pm
92 wins, bounced in NLDS

Dodgers beat Indians in 6
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on March 30, 2017, 03:06:20 pm
104
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 30, 2017, 03:10:33 pm
98
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 30, 2017, 03:15:35 pm
103 wins, playoffs are a crapshoot
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 30, 2017, 03:20:40 pm
105, and second of five straight World Series titles.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 30, 2017, 03:41:05 pm
96 sounds about right, which should be plenty to win the division. Bullpen will be a significant issue until addressed at the deadline (or more likely a little before, given Theo's history).
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 30, 2017, 03:41:18 pm
99 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 30, 2017, 04:47:22 pm
105 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on March 30, 2017, 06:24:01 pm
101
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 30, 2017, 06:48:13 pm
94 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 30, 2017, 07:00:57 pm
100 wins.

Back to back champs.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 30, 2017, 08:16:42 pm
108 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 31, 2017, 12:05:31 pm
94 victories...bullpen will be problematic all year long
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Exile236 on March 31, 2017, 12:20:01 pm
110 and a second WS appearance (at least).
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: bitterman on March 31, 2017, 12:47:18 pm
88 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: sam hannam on March 31, 2017, 04:31:17 pm
97 Wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 31, 2017, 04:59:02 pm
100
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on March 31, 2017, 05:37:30 pm
I'll take 95.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: PRCubFan on March 31, 2017, 06:44:46 pm
I'll go with 94 wins. 

I think the Cardinals will be better, we play the AL East this year, and everyone will be coming for the Cubs.  The pitching can't be as good as last year and we'll definitely miss Fowler.  But, that should still be good enough to win the Central.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 31, 2017, 07:45:20 pm
I'll predict 97 wins and also predict that Deeg reminds us about the bullpen three out of every five days for the whole season.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 31, 2017, 09:08:12 pm
Can we remind him of his love affair with Justin Masterson every time he does?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 31, 2017, 09:14:33 pm
This place gets more like the Scientologists with each passing year.  If you don't paste on the smile and toe the party line in every respect, the long knives come out.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on April 01, 2017, 11:39:39 pm
14
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on April 02, 2017, 04:48:46 pm
93 wins. 

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: otto105 on April 04, 2017, 09:53:13 am
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Houston
Cincy
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on April 04, 2017, 09:54:38 am
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Houston
Cincy

Try again, Otto
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on April 04, 2017, 12:01:40 pm
Bennett, he just cut and pasted from 2012.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on April 04, 2017, 12:40:44 pm
I've been a Cub fan for 23 years and even though that's a lifetime longer than all these bandwagon son of a bitches you see I still realize I can't even touch how long some of you all have been fans.

My point is when I first started I knew nothing of the Cubs/Cards rivalry so all I was able to do is form my own opinions and my most hated rival was the Astros.

Kinda hated to see them leave the NL Central.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on April 07, 2017, 01:45:57 pm
121 repeat
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ray on April 07, 2017, 02:25:38 pm
I've been a Cub fan for 23 years and even though that's a lifetime longer than all these bandwagon son of a bitches you see I still realize I can't even touch how long some of you all have been fans.

My point is when I first started I knew nothing of the Cubs/Cards rivalry so all I was able to do is form my own opinions and my most hated rival was the Astros.

Kinda hated to see them leave the NL Central.

I hated the reds when I was little.  That was when they had charlton, dibble and the other guy.  And Jose Rijo.  I hated the stros second tho.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brs2 on April 07, 2017, 05:34:47 pm
I hated the reds when I was little.  That was when they had charlton, dibble and the other guy.  And Jose Rijo.  I hated the stros second tho.

I hated the Mets when I was little.  That was when... well, you know.....
On topic, 98 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on April 07, 2017, 07:10:57 pm
97


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on October 14, 2017, 08:28:55 am
Dodgers in six.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 14, 2017, 09:05:51 am
Cubs in 5.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on October 14, 2017, 10:37:02 am
Cubs in 7.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on October 14, 2017, 10:57:29 am
Dodgers in six.

That sounds about right to me.  I can't see any empirical reason to pick the Cubs in the this series, except that in baseball the better team often doesn't win, and you have to figure the Cubs are full of self-belief at this point.  They definitely have a puncher's chance.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 14, 2017, 11:02:37 am
Cubs in three.  Okay, four.  I'm a REEL PHAN.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on October 14, 2017, 12:14:48 pm
Cubs in 7.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on October 14, 2017, 12:24:55 pm
Dodgers in 5
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on October 20, 2017, 10:38:10 am
Cubs in three.  Okay, four.  I'm a REEL PHAN.
Prove it!!!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 20, 2017, 11:42:43 am
Prove it!!!
I didn't say what year!
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on October 20, 2017, 03:17:09 pm
Like I said, Dodgers in 5. Or something like that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on October 21, 2017, 11:33:06 am
I didn't say what year!
That was in reference to the commercial that is being shown during the playoffs...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on November 12, 2017, 11:08:35 pm
mlbtraderumors.com predicted a $20/3 contract for Chatwood.
The chances of Chatwood signing for that little is zero.  Not 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.  Zero.
He'll get closer to $50 than $20.  I want to say closer to $100 than $20, but I'm not quite that brave.

Who was it who insisted before the start of this season that there was absolutely zero chance Schwarber would spend any time catching this season?  Four games and seven innings is not a heck of a lot, but it is more than none, and gave Maddon some flexibility he likely valued quite a bit.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 25, 2017, 09:44:48 am
Ohtani to Seattle
Darvish to Cubs
Arrieta to Texas
Stanton to Dodgers
JD Martinez to Blue Jays
Santana to Cardinals
Frazier to Cardinals
Yelich to Cardinals
Avila back to Tigers
Cain to Cubs
Jay to Seattle
Cobb to Cubs
Lynn to Angels
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on November 25, 2017, 04:12:34 pm
Swap Otani for Cobb and I'd take that.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 25, 2017, 04:19:04 pm
I didn't base that on where I hoped they would go, but where the opinion of "experts" seems to think they will end up.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 25, 2017, 06:46:19 pm
I see absolutely no scenario where the Cubs lay out the salary for Darvish, Cobb and Cain.  No way.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 25, 2017, 08:04:34 pm
I see absolutely no scenario where the Cubs lay out the salary for Darvish, Cobb and Cain.  No way.
Where does it say that?  Could be they will be wrong on one, two, or all three of those.  Try to visualize how that list was put together.  I didn't see anyone predicting all three of those to the Cubs.  It's a compilation.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 25, 2017, 09:11:42 pm
For that matter, who are these experts who're predicting Darvish and Cain to the Cubs?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 25, 2017, 10:34:45 pm
They're all around the web.  Why do you think I put "experts" in quotes?  Sheesh.  You're becoming Reb real quick.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 25, 2017, 11:39:14 pm
You don't have to get personal - it's a serious question.  Are there specific "experts" who've flat-out predicted Darvish and/or Cain to the Cubs?  I can't recall a single one.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 25, 2017, 11:52:01 pm
Yes, there are.  I don't recall which one predicted Cain to Seattle or Cubs, but several have suggested Darvish to Cubs, particularly if Arrieta signs elsewhere.  I get emails from MLB, Insider, Yahoo Sports, CBS, Roto...I lose track who said what, but I've tried to absorb as much as possible.  For fun, I put together a list of my own predictions based on all the input.  I don't expect many of them to happen.  If I hit 40% I'll be thrilled.  I was hoping others would have the fun of making their own predictions.  For example, here's one online source I felt had some strong arguments for Ohtani: http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/262375606/mariners-looking-to-sign-shohei-ohtani/?partnerId=ed-12096726-1033633093

I do recall the writer who suggested Cain to the Cubs as assuming Almora would go in a trade for pitching. 

And, yes, the Reb shot was low.  I apologize.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 26, 2017, 01:30:05 am
Well, I suppose if you cast a wide enough net you'll find someone who considers themselves an expert predict pretty much every possible FA signing.  I just don't recall any of the bigger names predicting Cain or Darvish to the Cubs.  And with good reason, because I don't think there's much chance either is going to happen.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 26, 2017, 05:50:45 am
You haven't read anything about Darvish and the Cubs?  Okay, here are a few links.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-need-yu-darvish/

https://www.inquisitr.com/opinion/4587684/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-is-a-perfect-free-agency-target/

https://www.inquisitr.com/4630786/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-signing-looking-like-a-real-possibility/

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/10/25/jake-arrieta-and-yu-darvish-are-possibilities-for-cubs-but-not-probabilities/

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2017/11/9/16625344/cubs-yu-darvish-free-agent-contract

http://hammametnow.com/news/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-is-a-perfect-free-agency-target-opinion/

Now, do I think the Cubs will sign him?  No.  But it's fun to speculate and hope.  Try it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on November 26, 2017, 08:36:08 am
Curt - Not to nitpick, but in my quick skimming of those articles none of them seem to "predict" the Cubs end up with Darvish. Rather they tend to make a case for why the Cubs "need" or match up with Darvish.  I would be shocked if they sign Darvish, or even give a serious effort to do so.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on November 26, 2017, 09:19:46 am
The question was whether Darvish and the Cubs had been linked at all.  If you need picks, on something that I thought would be a fun exercise, try this link:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2017/11/20/16680950/mlb-free-agency-2017-otani-darvish-jd-martinez
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Ron on November 26, 2017, 05:51:10 pm
The question was whether Darvish and the Cubs had been linked at all.  If you need picks, on something that I thought would be a fun exercise, try this link:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2017/11/20/16680950/mlb-free-agency-2017-otani-darvish-jd-martinez

Very weird that only one of these 16 guys predict the Cubs will sign Alex Cobb, while 12 predict the Cubs will sign either Arrieta or Darvish.  I guess this is simply a function of how ignorant Yankee fans are about other teams, or at least the Cubs.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on November 26, 2017, 06:03:46 pm
MLBTrade rumors had Darvish to the Cubs.

People are just guessing at this point. It would be nice if things started moving.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on November 26, 2017, 06:07:39 pm
Quote
The heat gets turned up on the Hot Stove at baseball's annual Winter Meetings from Dec. 10-14 in Orlando.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on November 27, 2017, 12:37:48 pm
Who is going to pursue Darvish?  Is it possible that Cubs might consider him under-valued, and that his value-per-dollar will end up actually being fairly good?  Or that they see things in his game where they think they can get a better-than-shown version?  That Benedict's "5 Levels of WHY" sees some reasons to think he can be a strong #2 guy, and maybe there aren't that many teams who are eager to compete for him?   Beats me, I'm just wondering whether maybe the demand for him won't be as vigorous as is assumed. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 27, 2017, 12:44:12 pm
Maybe they're thinking that, but it's hard to imagine he'll be that undervalued when he's clearly the best SP on the market.  There may be some question as to his performance in big games, but his stuff is elite.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on November 27, 2017, 01:25:26 pm
I admit I wonder there, deeg.  I haven't seen him much, other than the World Series which I realize is not super representative.  But I'm not sure a guy totally flips his approach...

So, what I seemed to see him using was basically curveball/breaking ball, with an occasional fastball thrown in as a change-of-pace.  But it looked to me as if he didn't have much confidence in the fastball, and used that only as his 3rd or 4th pitch.  Yes, of course I understand that a great curve is harder to hit than a fastball, and a lot of hitters would prefer 93-94 mph fastballs rather than spin.  But I guess just from brief appearance, it looked like he believed his fastball was an ineffective pitch that he was scared to throw. 

I don't know the guy, and I understand that his fastball velocity is good. 

So, my question is, is he always scared of his fastball, or was that just in the playoffs? 

I guess I'm thinking that for curve and offspeed and spin to be most deadly, and for stuff to be "elite", that a guy still needs an excellent fastball that he can locate and throw for strikes without getting killed; and that can be used to keep guys off-balance on the curve, or to overpower guys if they do insist on just sitting curveball.   
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on November 27, 2017, 02:14:53 pm
Darvish has never been afraid of his fastball - it's just that he has 6 or 7 pitches and likes to use all of them.  He averaged 94 last year and that's certainly plenty to be effective.

One of the things the Dodgers reportedly did was force him to cut back to mostly 3 pitches - who knows, maybe that messed with his head.  Also there was that "slick ball" issue, where Verlander said he couldn't even use his breaking pitch in the world series after a while.  Darvish is a very "handsy" pitcher (maybe the most in baseball) so that could have been a factor.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on November 29, 2017, 05:17:08 pm
Happ for Salazar was what was proposed by a writer.  The writer admitted that the Indians would likely have to add more.

A while back, I mentioned this guy as a possible Cubs target:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bieber000sha

He threw a total of 173 innings this year at age 22.  I would look for arm trouble in the very near future.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on November 29, 2017, 08:48:12 pm
Someone had to step in and fill the void.  Jes can't do everything by himself.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on December 04, 2017, 11:23:54 pm
I think the Rangers have a real shot, personally.  My #2 dark horse after the Angels.

I think Theo and Maddon have the best chance of persuading him.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on February 13, 2018, 02:08:22 pm
With the "it's way too early for this, so I reserve the right to amend prior to the season actually starting" caveat, I will open the bidding at 99.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Exile236 on February 13, 2018, 02:40:39 pm
101... back on track
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on February 13, 2018, 02:57:23 pm
100-62.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on February 13, 2018, 03:06:27 pm
97
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on February 13, 2018, 03:23:52 pm
96

Wins, that is.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on February 13, 2018, 03:26:05 pm
I'm going to wait to make sure we don't have two pitchers going down to TJS this spring.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on February 13, 2018, 03:27:29 pm
As long as it's Grimm and Zastryzny, I think we're fine.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on February 13, 2018, 04:20:56 pm
I'm drinking the koolaid. 104
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on February 13, 2018, 05:04:14 pm
95
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: sam hannam on February 13, 2018, 06:41:16 pm

98
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on February 13, 2018, 08:27:11 pm
mlbtraderumors.com predicted a $20/3 contract for Chatwood.
The chances of Chatwood signing for that little is zero.  Not 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.  Zero.
He'll get closer to $50 than $20.  I want to say closer to $100 than $20, but I'm not quite that brave.

Chatwood ended up signing with the Cubs for 3 years at $38M.  Not at all close to $20/3, but a lot closer than $100/3.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on February 13, 2018, 08:31:46 pm
Chestnuts.

Well, I suppose if you cast a wide enough net you'll find someone who considers themselves an expert predict pretty much every possible FA signing.  I just don't recall any of the bigger names predicting Cain or Darvish to the Cubs.  And with good reason, because I don't think there's much chance either is going to happen.

Curt - Not to nitpick, but in my quick skimming of those articles none of them seem to "predict" the Cubs end up with Darvish. Rather they tend to make a case for why the Cubs "need" or match up with Darvish.  I would be shocked if they sign Darvish, or even give a serious effort to do so.

Who was it who used to insist the Ricketts family would never spend real money on the team and were just looking for a chance to fleece fans who would continue buying tickets for crappy teams?

I think Theo and Maddon have the best chance of persuading him.

Damn.... looks like that guy had it right about signing Darvish.

Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on February 13, 2018, 08:33:16 pm
2017 record 107-55

What the heck, I'll double down for 2018.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on February 14, 2018, 11:15:01 am
102
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on February 14, 2018, 11:30:34 am
104
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on February 14, 2018, 12:05:51 pm
94
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on February 14, 2018, 12:21:38 pm
98
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on February 18, 2018, 02:46:57 pm
I was going to say 104, but since a couple of guys have already picked that, I am going to assume that they have a healthy year and call it 105.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on February 18, 2018, 05:30:52 pm
100 on the nose
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: otto105 on March 11, 2018, 11:14:21 pm
Cubs 91-71
Brewers 89-73


Both make playoffs
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 24, 2018, 08:28:56 pm
Maybe I'm just tired of all the Yankee hype. Maybe this is more wish than anything, but I predict Aaron Judge will way under perform this year. Like a Kyle Schwarber 2017 kind of year.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 24, 2018, 08:44:20 pm
I never made my prediction, so I'm going with 102 wins.

Other Cubs predictions:
- Quintana finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting, and Darvish finishes top 10.
- Happ makes the All Star team (and deserves it--it's not just because Cubs fans stuff the ballot box).
- Contreras gets the most MVP votes of any Cub.
- Morrow is effective when healthy, but Wilson leads the Cubs in saves.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: AZSteve on March 26, 2018, 06:47:07 pm
101-61
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on March 26, 2018, 06:55:31 pm
117 for me
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 27, 2018, 06:38:48 pm
98 - 63  One rainout won't be made up.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 27, 2018, 07:10:05 pm
That's... specific.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2018, 05:21:33 pm
Which rainout?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 28, 2018, 05:59:17 pm
A couple of contrarian non-Cubs predictions:

The Brewers will win 75-80 games and finish in 4th place. I don't believe in any of their breakouts from last year except Nelson, and he's hurt. They're this year's team that is a trendy pick now, but by July everyone will realize they should've seen a step back coming.

The Red Sox win the division by 5 games over the Yankees (though the Yankees still take the first wild card). I think the Yankees have a really vulnerable rotation.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on September 23, 2018, 10:58:47 am
Craig and Jacey are looking like the they have the best shot this year. 104? What was I thinking?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on September 23, 2018, 11:35:41 am
Craig and Jacey are looking like the they have the best shot this year. 104? What was I thinking?
You were probably thinking that Darvish would be our ace, that Chatwood would do much better than he has, that neither Bryant nor Morrow would be hurt during the season, that Contreras and a couple others would not have an off season, things like that.  If expectations had been met, 104 would be reasonable.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on September 23, 2018, 11:57:09 am
br has certainly changed his tune on the Brewers...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on September 23, 2018, 06:31:47 pm
Craig and Jacey are looking like the they have the best shot this year. 104? What was I thinking?

I still like 96, myself...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on October 02, 2018, 07:15:22 pm
95
We have a winner.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on October 04, 2018, 02:27:02 pm
If only we'd beaten Milwaukee in game #163...

96 wins and this . . .


(https://suntimesmedia.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/sneed10416.jpg?w=670)
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on October 23, 2018, 09:38:40 am
Dodgers in six.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on February 15, 2019, 02:08:51 pm
Chatwood is going to lead the league in lowest walks/innings pitched this year.

Book it.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: otto105 on March 19, 2019, 05:12:34 pm
2019 NL Central Final Standings

Brewers
St. Louis
Chicago
Pittsburg
Cinci
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 19, 2019, 06:05:13 pm
Cubs win 98, win the division, win the NLCS and lose in 7 games to the Yankees.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 19, 2019, 06:06:01 pm
89 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robert L on March 19, 2019, 06:47:40 pm
100
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: sam hannam on March 19, 2019, 07:00:15 pm

91
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on March 19, 2019, 10:13:21 pm
83 wins, third place, no playoffs. Bullpen is a dumpster fire, starting pitching inconsistent, and hitting continues to be less than the sum of their parts for the third year in a row.

I really hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on March 19, 2019, 11:09:00 pm
90-72.

Cards win the division.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 19, 2019, 11:38:24 pm
I hate thinking along the lines of br on this one, but I'm thinking 86.  Just not a lot of spark going on with this team right now. 

I also hope this turns out to be horribly wrong in a positive way.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on March 20, 2019, 09:13:51 am
94 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 20, 2019, 12:13:57 pm
93
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on March 20, 2019, 12:14:21 pm
89 WINS
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on March 20, 2019, 12:31:30 pm
76 wins, Joe is fired, Theo feels heat and may move on, Cub players no longer scoff at early predictions of doom, br is hired as special consultant regarding back up catchers, Cubs finish 4th only because Cincinnati chokes and drops to the bottom.  Thousands of fans burn their jerseys and march on Wrigley in protest of Joe Ricketts.  Tom Ricketts gets upset, sells the team to Fox News and Trump Enterprises.  CurtOne begins rooting for the St. Louis Cardinals and is confined to Clybern House for the Criminally Insane. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on March 20, 2019, 12:48:09 pm
76 wins, Joe is fired, Theo feels heat and may move on, Cub players no longer scoff at early predictions of doom, br is hired as special consultant regarding back up catchers, Cubs finish 4th only because Cincinnati chokes and drops to the bottom.  Thousands of fans burn their jerseys and march on Wrigley in protest of Joe Ricketts.  Tom Ricketts gets upset, sells the team to Fox News and Trump Enterprises.  CurtOne begins rooting for the St. Louis Cardinals and is confined to Clybern House for the Criminally Insane. 
Finally a reasonable prediction
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on March 20, 2019, 03:01:11 pm
92
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on March 20, 2019, 03:03:30 pm
Report: Brewers talks with Kimbrel are serious

Cubs will swoop in and sign Kimbrel to avoid a Brewer domination...besides they need a closer...push Morrow back to where he belongs...the 8th until his glass arm breaks again.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 20, 2019, 03:05:38 pm
Quote
CurtOne ... is confined to Clybern House for the Criminally Insane.

Seems like this last part should have already happened a long time ago...
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on March 21, 2019, 06:30:46 am
120 wins

WS win

Schwarber MVP

KB second in voting for MVP

Darviash - Cy Young

Lester - second in Cy Young voting.

CurtOne is confined to Clybern House for the Criminally Insane

It's spring.  Why not.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 26, 2019, 01:42:02 pm
95 - 67
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on March 27, 2019, 04:35:47 am
96
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: method on March 27, 2019, 05:56:54 am
87 wins, Joe is blammed for everything and is fired day after the season ends.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: craig on March 27, 2019, 07:15:35 am
88
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: grrrrlacher on March 27, 2019, 10:37:45 am
98 wins
NL Central crown
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on March 27, 2019, 11:14:02 am
74

Baez and Rizzo will be good to great.
Rotation and bullpen will be dreadful.
Bryant craters, season ending shoulder surgery.
Too much swing and miss throughout the lineup.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CUBluejays on March 27, 2019, 11:20:16 am
99, Best record in the NL
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: PRCubFan on March 27, 2019, 06:17:50 pm
90 wins and a wild card. 
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 27, 2019, 07:12:00 pm
Fivethirtyeights.com's ELO predictions are out.  Cubs at 84 wins, 3rd in the Central.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 27, 2019, 07:19:24 pm
93 wins.  Albert Almora gets some MVP votes.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: DelMarFan on March 27, 2019, 07:21:54 pm
Quote
Albert Almora gets some MVP votes.

Ooh, I like that one.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 27, 2019, 07:41:09 pm
93 wins.  Albert Almora gets some MVP votes.

Who the heck hacked into JeffH's account???
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 27, 2019, 07:59:16 pm
Albert Almora gets some MVP votes.

Comedy gold.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 27, 2019, 08:31:42 pm
Try not to be a ****.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Eastcoastfan on March 27, 2019, 09:39:38 pm
89 wins
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 27, 2019, 11:46:23 pm
98-64 and another WS trip.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 28, 2019, 01:24:24 am
Try not to be a ****.

Try not to post ridiculous bullshit and then get huffy when it's pointed out.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on March 28, 2019, 12:13:28 pm
94-68
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 28, 2019, 03:08:31 pm
120 wmljohn
100 Robert L
99  CUBluejays
98  Robb
98  grrrrlacher
98  Jes Beard
96  Chiman
95  Bennett
94  davep
94  Dave23
93  DelMarFan
93  JeffH
92  dev
91  sam hannam
90  Dusty
90  PRCubFan
89  Deeg
89  jacey1
89  Eastcoastfan
88  craig
87  method
86  JR
83  brjones
76  CurtOne
74  mO
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 28, 2019, 06:22:31 pm
After today, I'd like to change mine to 162-0.  Maybe 159-1 to be more realistic.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2019, 07:31:59 pm
I know many looked at the Baez 2018 season as a big breakout year, but not likely one he would repeat in 2019, and perhaps not ever repeat again.  I quite seriously felt 2018 was just a taste of things to come.  My prediction for him in 2019 is that he raises his OPS+ from 126 to 140, and takes the MVP this season.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on March 28, 2019, 07:45:43 pm
Too late to make that prediction after the game he had today.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on March 31, 2019, 07:02:37 pm
After today, I'd like to change mine to 162-0.  Maybe 159-1 to be more realistic.
Any chance you are considering changing your prediction back?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on March 31, 2019, 08:20:02 pm
160-2
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on April 03, 2019, 09:50:52 pm
Kris Bryant: More than 20 HRs this year?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on April 03, 2019, 11:32:20 pm
I change my prediction. The Cubs will go 1-161.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on June 27, 2019, 05:24:30 pm
120 wmljohn
100 Robert L
99  CUBluejays
98  Robb
98  grrrrlacher
98  Jes Beard
96  Chiman
95  Bennett
94  davep
94  Dave23
93  DelMarFan
93  JeffH
92  dev
91  sam hannam
90  Dusty
90  PRCubFan
89  Deeg
89  jacey1
89  Eastcoastfan
88  craig
87  method
86  JR
83  brjones
76  CurtOne
74  mO

The Cubs finish the first half of the season at 44-37.    That put Craig right on target.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on July 03, 2019, 08:41:55 am
Here is a prediction.

Before the deadline Jed and Theo make a big move to shake up the lineup.  One of the coveted young names gets moved that is not named Addison.  He would be too easy.  It will be an Almora, Schwarber, or Happ kind of player.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on July 03, 2019, 04:16:43 pm
Moving one of those guys hardly counts as a big move or a shakeup at this point.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on July 04, 2019, 07:52:12 am
It does if you are in the clubhouse. 

Apparently Theo is thinking on the same wave length in an interview yesterday he said, "If this stretch of play continues, there certainly will be a ton of changes in order.  It obviously can't continue.  It's unacceptable."
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on July 04, 2019, 08:01:00 am
This team needs a shake up but not a panic move. Please don't make a trade just to make a trade.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on July 04, 2019, 08:43:13 am
This team needs a shake up but not a panic move. Please don't make a trade just to make a trade.

The most obvious shake up wouldn't be player-related.

At this point, Theo's anger and threats seem pretty hollow - until he actually shows he's willing to make these big changes he keeps talking about, there's no reason to think he actually will.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on July 04, 2019, 09:48:21 am
I don't see Maddon getting fired when a turnaround is still quite possible.  If the turnaround hasn't occurred a month from now and the Cubs are well behind in the Division, then I could see him getting axed.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on July 04, 2019, 10:12:35 am
This team needs a shake up but not a panic move. Please don't make a trade just to make a trade.
Obviously there are pieces they could trade that would send a message, but not many that would actually change the dynamic of the team. 

Maddon seems to be either desperate or flustered himself.  Using Contreras in the OF was fine; not removing him when defense was critical is not.  Has Contreras played any outfield since his rookie year?   He sent Hotovy to the mound after the "double,"  did he not convey to the infielders that playing back meant not coming home with the throw?  Unreal. 

Kimbrel isn't sharp yet.  He needs work.  He's overthrowing and not bringing his head around soon enough to see the target.  So why force him into save situations so soon?  Are both Bryant and Heyward hurt?  What's the deal?

The first few years we saw some of Maddon's ego play out in moves he made to prove he was the smartest guy in the dugout, but they usually were harmless and often worked.  There must be some kind of disconnect that Theocracy sees that they didn't offer him an extension, and now maybe we're witnessing it too.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Playtwo on July 04, 2019, 10:22:20 am
According to Andracki, Bryant and Heyward are "banged up".  https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-keep-finding-new-heartbreaking-ways-lose-pirates-kimbrel-contreras-russell-caratini
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: davep on July 04, 2019, 02:37:42 pm
Here is a prediction.

Before the deadline Jed and Theo make a big move to shake up the lineup.  One of the coveted young names gets moved that is not named Addison.  He would be too easy.  It will be an Almora, Schwarber, or Happ kind of player.

I doubt that Happ could still be considered "highly coveted".  And Schwarber is the only one you could really get something decent in return that was MLB ready to perform.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Jes Beard on July 05, 2019, 04:50:55 pm
I doubt that Happ could still be considered "highly coveted".

Was thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on July 31, 2019, 11:33:18 am
With Voit on the IL, look for the NYY to trade for Jose Abreu today
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on August 02, 2019, 08:56:43 am
The Cubs current record of 57-51 means the season has reached the ⅔ point.  That puts them on track to finish the season with 85½ wins.   At the halfway mark, that number was 88.

22 of the 25 board members who made a preseason prediction thought the Cubs would win more than 85½ games.  JR’s prognostication of 86 wins is the closest.

I’m revising my guess of 95 down to 82.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on August 02, 2019, 09:21:37 am
Gosh, creeping toward PECOTA, right?
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on September 20, 2019, 06:08:12 pm
90-72.

Cards win the division.


Im looking pretty good right now.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 25, 2019, 02:40:17 pm
br, unfortunately I think we're looking pretty good in the predictions race.   I think 1-4 or 2-3 finishes make you the winner.  I need them to go 3-2 or 4-1, and method wins it if they win the final five.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 25, 2019, 02:43:07 pm
83 wins, third place, no playoffs. Bullpen is a dumpster fire, starting pitching inconsistent, and hitting continues to be less than the sum of their parts for the third year in a row.

I really hope I'm wrong.

And sadly it looks like you had the season in general figured out from the start.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on September 25, 2019, 09:45:07 pm
No matter how many games they win this weekend, I think "bullpen is a dumpster fire, starting pitching inconsistent, and hitting continues to be less than the sum of their parts" is a winning prediction.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dogstoothe on September 30, 2019, 12:57:36 pm
David Ross, you shake him up and turn him upside down, wake him up and have him look around, at least a uniform will be his, when the Chicago Cubs come to town.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dihard on October 01, 2019, 10:59:49 am
Ohtani to Seattle
Darvish to Cubs
Arrieta to Texas
Stanton to Dodgers
JD Martinez to Blue Jays
Santana to Cardinals
Frazier to Cardinals
Yelich to Cardinals
Avila back to Tigers
Cain to Cubs
Jay to Seattle
Cobb to Cubs
Lynn to Angels
I just discovered this topic and found an interesting alternate reality post from 2017...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on October 01, 2019, 11:01:53 am
Hey.  I got ONE right.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dogstoothe on October 17, 2019, 03:24:14 pm
Billy Martin, that's who we need.  I predict him.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on October 22, 2019, 04:19:10 pm
Washington in 6
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Dave23 on January 29, 2020, 10:48:30 am
As we stand right now...

78-84
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: method on January 29, 2020, 10:53:49 am
They'll be better then that i'll go with 85-77, 3rd in the central.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on January 29, 2020, 11:05:26 am
Cubs 4th in division.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on January 29, 2020, 03:27:47 pm
Impossible to predict, with so much variability between now and Arizona.  As constructed 83-79 but this is not what the roster will be in a month.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: guest61 on January 29, 2020, 03:29:16 pm
Id currently say 82-80 but this aint the team we'll take to opening day.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on January 30, 2020, 01:12:10 am
I say 68-94. Major sell off mid season.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on February 26, 2020, 07:58:37 am
85-77
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: dev on February 26, 2020, 07:59:29 am
With Severino getting Tommy John surgery, look for the Yankmes to trade Andujar to the Pirates for Archer
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on February 27, 2020, 06:18:47 am
I am feeling a 92 win season.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: otto105 on March 04, 2020, 04:45:58 pm
Brewers 90-72.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: ticohans on March 06, 2020, 07:33:40 pm
Give me 86 wins.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on March 11, 2020, 09:19:02 pm
Wheels completely come off.  Pitching is MLB's worst.

66-96.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on March 11, 2020, 09:42:49 pm
I now predict a .500 season.  0-0.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on July 15, 2020, 02:37:25 pm
35-25
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: mO on July 15, 2020, 02:49:19 pm
7-12
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on July 15, 2020, 05:39:33 pm
If they play it out, 32-28. If the pandemic proceeds as is, about 6-5.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on July 17, 2020, 08:24:29 am
40-20
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Robb on July 17, 2020, 10:20:10 pm
28-32
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: CurtOne on July 17, 2020, 10:57:11 pm
3-3 and then season cancelled.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on July 17, 2020, 11:39:16 pm
36-24

2020 Covid World Series Champions
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: jacey1 on July 20, 2020, 12:11:36 pm
28-32
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JeffH on July 20, 2020, 08:15:27 pm
Wheels completely come off.  Pitching is MLB's worst.

24-36.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Chiman on July 22, 2020, 06:32:15 pm
31-29
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Tuffy on July 23, 2020, 09:35:31 am
29-31 if they finish the season. Reds win the division.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on July 24, 2020, 08:41:58 pm
60-0
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on July 27, 2020, 07:11:25 pm
Chatwood beats out Hendricks for the NL Cy-Young.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Deeg on July 27, 2020, 11:23:35 pm
3-1
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: Bennett on September 23, 2020, 12:09:42 pm
The Cubs are 32-23 with 5 games to play

40-20  wmljohn
36-24  JR
35-25  Bennett
32-28  Deeg
31-29  Chiman
29-31  Tuffy
28-32  Robb
28-32  jacey1
24-36  JeffH
7-12   mO
3-3    CurtOne
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: JR on September 23, 2020, 12:12:48 pm
So you need them to go 3-2, and I need them to go 4-1.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on September 23, 2020, 12:28:35 pm
Don't count out Deeg just yet...  He could nail it with a 0-5 finish.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: brjones on September 24, 2020, 12:24:39 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Chiman ends up winning. This offense is bad enough to lose 5 of their last 4 games.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on September 24, 2020, 08:14:07 am
New prediction:  IF the cubs lose in the first round they will have scored no more than 5 runs total.
Title: Re: Predictions
Post by: wmljohn on October 02, 2020, 04:37:35 pm
I guess I have them too much credit. They scored 1 run. I was giving them the benefit of doubt and thinking they would win one game maybe 2-1 or something.