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Title: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on March 11, 2013, 09:42:53 pm
Discuss the contenders for the #2 selection...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on March 11, 2013, 09:59:29 pm
Take a position player.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on March 11, 2013, 11:16:36 pm
At the moment, I'm expecting them to draft either Frazier or Meadows, but I wouldn't be shocked or horribly disappointed if they drafted Appel or Manaea instead. Of course, the draft is almost four months away, and the leaderboard could change.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 12, 2013, 03:26:41 am
Jim Callis:

Quote
As we've detailed several times, Stanford righthander Mark Appel turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates after they drafted him eighth overall last year. Though he has less leverage now because he's in his final year of college eligibility and it's hard to fathom that he'd hold out again and re-enter the 2014 draft, he's putting himself in position to get more than $3.8 million this summer.

Appel, who entered the year as Baseball America's top-rated prospect for the 2013 draft Premium, struck out a career-high 15 in seven innings while taking a tough 3-2 loss against Nevada-Las Vegas on Friday night. His stuff is as good as ever, and he's dominating like scouts always have thought he should. He's now 2-2, 1.20 with a 43-6 K-BB ratio and .160 opponent average in 30 innings.

Appel will be attractive to a team that wants a college pitcher who can arrive in a hurry—that's just about any club—and also to anyone looking to spread their bonus pool money around. Because of his reduced leverage, it's unlikely that he'll command full pick value at the top of the draft. Could the Astros wind up drafting him No. 1 overall, just a year later than expected? We have three months to find out.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 12, 2013, 03:33:44 am
I was against taking Appel last year.  I think I might have been wrong about him, though I suppose there is a lot of the season left; and he is a senior, so he should dominate.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on March 12, 2013, 12:23:07 pm
I'm firmly in the Appel camp and think he's gonna be there at two.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 12, 2013, 01:41:42 pm
He'd keep Gooden away.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on March 12, 2013, 01:44:43 pm
Bravo!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 13, 2013, 12:43:34 am
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/

one Cubs evaluator told me if Stanford right-hander Mark Appel is sitting there at No. 2 in this year's draft, he won't get by them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 13, 2013, 05:09:30 am
Well sure. There's a precedent for the Cubs taking big, hard-throwing, strike throwers named Mark from California schools with the #2 pick. Shouldn't be an ounce of pressure on him if he's the pick....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 13, 2013, 06:22:19 am
Well sure. There's a precedent for the Cubs taking big, hard-throwing, strike throwers named Mark from California schools with the #2 pick. Shouldn't be an ounce of pressure on him if he's the pick....

Guessing you're pulling for Manaea, or do do you have a favorite in the early going?  I can't see the prior Prior selection adding any pressure to Appel if he's the pick; though if he keeps up at this pace, the expectations will be vast.  And, if that happens, and the Cubs get him, I will gladly admit I was wrong about him.

Doesn't Appel have different negotiating restrictions and/or deadlines being a college senior?  That is the only bad part about selecting him, if true.  I'm sure with the workload he is going to have to endure for Stanford, he'd probably be better off taking the rest of the year off. But it would be nice to shoot for a 2014 call up with him if they could get him signed somewhat early.  If he and Manaea had similar ceilings and eta's, it would be worth taking the latter just because of the signing deadline.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 13, 2013, 07:51:55 am
This makes me want to take a hitter.  Talk about nailing the top of the draft as far as the hitters are concerned...pitchers, not so much.  Of course, we'd probably end up with this year's Maybin.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/top200h.html

When the talent drops off though, it really drops off.

edit--I wonder who would win a foot race between the hitting prospect rated number 159 and Billy Hamilton.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on March 13, 2013, 09:04:58 am
Not sure what either of them run, but we faced a senior the other night who has been clocked at 6.18 in the 60, and 4.02 from the RHH batters box on a full swing. That's just blazing fast.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 13, 2013, 09:19:41 am
Not sure what Hamilton runs, but Desean Jackson(the number 159 guy for those that don't click on link) was timed at 4.35 in the 40 at the nfl combine a while back. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 13, 2013, 09:18:47 pm
Quote
Guessing you're pulling for Manaea, or do do you have a favorite in the early going?

Having seen none of them play live yet, I'm interested in Manaea, Appel, and Frazier above all others right now. I know there are those who don't like the risk of taking a pitcher that early, but I've always been fond of potential difference-making starters. It'll be interesting because the Astros may have the chance to take Appel or Manaea and end up with Rodon next year too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 13, 2013, 09:24:25 pm
Today was Frazier vs Meadows. Frazier with the KO win.

.

Quote
Clint Frazier, a 6’-1”, 190-pound right-hander blessed with some of the best bat speed you will ever see, ignited the crowd before the game, hitting 23 home runs in batting practice. He also threw a strike from mid-center field, showing off his canon arm that has been clocked at 98 mph from the outfield.

He popped out to Meadows in his first at-bat and struck out in his second at-bat on a filthy change-up from Grayson starter Chris Erwin, a left-hander. In his third at-bat, with the game tied at 2-2 with two on and two out, he hit the first pitch he saw really far. It cleared the trees in left field and one scout called it the farthest ball he has ever seen a high school player hit … ever. To say the crowd went nuts is an understatement.

In the top of the sixth, Frazier came up for his fourth at-bat with his team leading 8-4. Korey Anderson, another left-hander, got two quick strikes on him. He then launched an 0-2 curveball over the left field fence for his second home run of the game and, once again, sent the crowd filled with nearly 100 scouts, GM’s and countless fans into a tizzy.

...

Clint Frazier finished 2-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI and is now hitting .600 (15-for-25) with six home runs and 18 RBI over seven games. He generates tremendous power from his strong wrists and the before mentioned bat speed. Along with his plus arm, he also has plus speed and is aggressive in every aspect of the game. He’s an electric player who you would be hard pressed to find another player who enjoys the game more.


Quote
Meadows, a 6’-4”, left-hander who also has tremendous power, a plus arm and plus speed, finished the game 0-for-1 with a walk and  hit-by-pitch. He didn’t get much to hit and by no means “slipped” in anyone’s eyes as far as draft stock goes. On the season, he is hitting .471 (8-for-17) with one home run and six RBI.


http://throughthefencebaseball.com/clint-frazier-flexes-muscles/30120/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 13, 2013, 09:31:12 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GF9DwiCzH8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WEqcVCby5c
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 13, 2013, 10:23:02 pm
The scouts can have Meadows - I'll take Frazier any day of the week.  If he and Appel are both there Theo is going to have a very tough decision to make.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 13, 2013, 10:55:03 pm
I'm just glad we'll be able to pick one of the two.

The weird thing to me is that I know Meadows is supposedly the scouts' favorite, but every time I read a write up of Frazier's tools, the kid sounds otherworldly. Tremendous power due to plus bat speed and very strong wrists. 98 mph arm. Plus speed. Healthy aggression and a burning passion for the game. How does one scout better than that? Is it just a size thing, where Meadows has a few inches on Frazier?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 13, 2013, 11:00:27 pm
I'm just glad we'll be able to pick one of the two.

The weird thing to me is that I know Meadows is supposedly the scouts' favorite, but every time I read a write up of Frazier's tools, the kid sounds otherworldly. Tremendous power due to plus bat speed and very strong wrists. 98 mph arm. Plus speed. Healthy aggression and a burning passion for the game. How does one scout better than that? Is it just a size thing, where Meadows has a few inches on Frazier?

I've wondered the same thing...perhaps, Meadows is just a smoother athlete in addition to the size?  Either way, it sounds like Frazier just has that "it" factor.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 14, 2013, 05:24:46 am
Every scout's justification for preferring Meadows has always listed size as a major fator.  How big does a guy have to be, exactly - is 6'1" not big enough to be a superstar?  It's damn silly as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 14, 2013, 09:36:08 am
I saw a scouting writeup earlier this week, Kiley McDaniel maybe?  Who had Frazier's power as kind of modest, projected him as a 15-20 HR guy.  Said he'd rank him a little bit behind Almora, who he'd ranked as the #1 guy last year.  Ranked Frazier ahead of Meadows.  I think some reference to a little bit of a hitch or something in his swing, that might become problematic against good pitchers.  Viewed Frazier as basically at or near his max physically, no projection left really. 

Personally, I'm not sure I see why an extra two inches beyond 6'1" is desirable, unless the 6'1" guy doesn't have the strength/bat-speed/wrists for genuine big-league power.  6'3" isn't way too long.  But it does seem taller guys with longer levers often have longer swings and more problems with movement and breaking balls.  So if the scouting really thinks Frazier can be a serious big-league HR guy while also hitting for average, I think I'd almost prefer the 6'1" to a 6'3" or taller guy. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 14, 2013, 09:49:52 am
As far as I'm concerned, the more the top guys impress, the better I like it.  We need to have at least two really good prospects to guarantee a premium guy will be left at #2.  Whether that's Appel and Frazier, Appel and Manea, Manea and Gray, as long as their are two, we can feel safe to get somebody really good.  Win win. 

If there are three or more, that could make it hard on management to decide between win-win options.  But that would be a nice problem to face. 

I understand the pitcher statistics, so I'll be happy if we get a player.  But I admit that Appel has a lot of appeal.  As a senior, there is little projection required.  He'll be big-league ready almost immediately, in terms of velocity, breaking stuff, and control.  Every arm is a risk, and could fry at any time.  But if you aren't wasting years of arm-failure risk in the minors, but get big-league service quickly, it increases the odds that you'll get a productive return on the investment before his arm goes bad.  And maybe you'll get lucky and he'll be one who stays healthy for a lot of years, including some championships? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 14, 2013, 10:37:06 am
Every arm is a risk, and could fry at any time.  But if you aren't wasting years of arm-failure risk in the minors, but get big-league service quickly, it increases the odds that you'll get a productive return on the investment before his arm goes bad.  And maybe you'll get lucky and he'll be one who stays healthy for a lot of years, including some championships? 

Like Prior.

Without him we never could have won the WS in 2003.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 14, 2013, 11:29:33 am
Considering the current state of starting pitching in the organization, the addition of a young starter would be huge.  If we think Appel (or a similar "tested" college pitcher) has a floor of being a middle of the rotation-type ML pitcher, and I think you go for him.  Only a stud two way CF or C prospect might make me think otherwise.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 14, 2013, 11:32:39 am
If reports are to be believed, the Cubs managed to get their top rated choice for the last two years.  I suspect they will get that again this year.

But I don't think that anyone would have picked either Baez or almora as their top rated player of that year.  The same may hold true this year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 14, 2013, 12:42:00 pm
One wonderful pick can make a draft.  But it would be nice to have money to sign excellent 2nd, 3rd etc picks as well.  Will be interesting to see if Houston insists on holding to slot/underslot again.  And to see whether the Cubs go superslot again. 

Using last year's numbers, picks 1-4 slot at $7.2/$6.2/$5.2/$4.2.
The Cubs total slot should be about $10, plus the 15% allowed overage. 

The Cubs could target a guy, and give him a high number that could be used to deter Houston.  Getting up up $8 is very doable, and might be worth it if that's what it takes to get him away from Houston.  Pick slot-signables in rounds 2-7, then go minimum wage in 8-10 like they did last year. 

Or they could have a guy or two, and say $5.7.  Hard to beat that with picks 3 or following; should we pick you or take somebody else?  A modest sub-slot signing  could give them $2 million in discretionary money, counting overage.  Could be fun to see what they could get with picks 2 and 3 if they could seriously superslot.  Pretty good chance that with pick #41 or whatever, there will be somebody left who was top 20 on your board. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 14, 2013, 02:45:51 pm
Baez is listed at 6-0 or 6-1 and his power seems to be decent. Frazier's looked okay in those videos too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 14, 2013, 04:46:55 pm
It would be pretty remarkable for a college senior (Appel) to get overslot money as a high first-rounder.  But, it's Boras--combined with a guy who maybe goes into the draft as the clear cut top pitcher available--and Boras did pretty well for JD Drew as a senior, way back before the slotting era. 

Too early to tell if Appel will be the clear top pitcher or whether he might actually project as a #1 ace starter type (too optimistic?) but a guy like that would be quite a boost to the long term pitching outlook for the organization, if we can get him.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 14, 2013, 04:59:49 pm
Baez is listed at 6-0 or 6-1 and his power seems to be decent. Frazier's looked okay in those videos too.

Willie Mays was 5'10".

Hack Wilson was 5'6".


One wonderful pick can make a draft.  But it would be nice to have money to sign excellent 2nd, 3rd etc picks as well.  Will be interesting to see if Houston insists on holding to slot/underslot again.  And to see whether the Cubs go superslot again. 

Using last year's numbers, picks 1-4 slot at $7.2/$6.2/$5.2/$4.2.
The Cubs total slot should be about $10, plus the 15% allowed overage. 

The Cubs could target a guy, and give him a high number that could be used to deter Houston.  Getting up up $8 is very doable, and might be worth it if that's what it takes to get him away from Houston.

Craig, perhaps I am missing something, but suppose the Cubs like Apple, or Frazier or anyone else, and they know that the Astros also like the guy, and intend to take him with the first pick.  And let's suppose that the Cubs like him enough that they are even willing to exceed slot and deal with the sanctions MLB will impose.

So how does that help the Cubs get him if the Astros want him?

Let's say the Cubs tell Apple that they are willing to sign him for $10M if they draft him and he signs within the week, and Apple and his agent are absolutely gung-ho about the idea because they know they would never do better than that.

Now, if that happens, how does that change things?

If the Astros take him, the Cub offer is no longer in the picture, and his only choice is to accept the Astro's offer or to sit out the season and re-enter the draft in 2014.

What am I missing?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 14, 2013, 06:31:19 pm
the obvious change is that they could tell the Astros that they would not sign for less than 10 million dollars.  If Boras has the reputation of being honest, it might cause the Astros to pass on him.

an agent like Boras wouldn't be very effective if he was known to lie in negotiations.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 14, 2013, 07:51:50 pm
Picking Appel on the assumption that you'd get him for slot money (or under, as some have suggested) is a huge gam ble.  Yes, he's a senior and has no leverage.  But Boras has shown he's willing to throw his own clients under the bus in order to protect his own reputation as a shark.

In terms of whether he projects as a true ace, I don't think there's any question that if he's 100% healthy as he is now, that's a yes.  He was the consensus top pick last year before signability issues tanked him, and he's substantially better this year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 15, 2013, 01:16:43 am
Keith Law draft list from today.  His top 7 in order:

1. Mark Appel
POS: RHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: Stanford

Analysis: The Pirates selected Appel with the No. 8 overall pick last June, but couldn't come to terms on a deal. He chose to return to Stanford for his senior year and one last shot at Omaha, a decision that, so far, looks like a sound baseball one too, as he has come out firing bullets, with an improved slider and more aggressive approach overall.

2. Sean Manaea
POS: LHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 235
School: Indiana State

Analysis: Manaea lit up the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting 96 mph with a plus slider, but has been a grade below that so far this spring. I'll see him against Minnesota's Tom Windle on Friday night at the Metrodome.

3. Austin Meadows
POS: OF
B/T: L/L
HT: 6-3
WT: 200
School: Grayson (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Meadows is one of the few high-upside athletes in this draft, a potential five-tool player who, like most players of that ilk, faces the strongest questions about the present and future caliber of his hit tool.

4. Ryne Stanek
POS: RHP
HT: 6-4
WT: 190
School: Arkansas

Analysis: Stanek has been up to 96-97 again this spring and misses a lot of bats, although his heavy reliance on the slider is a concern for when he heads into pro ball.

5. Austin Wilson
POS: OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-5
WT: 245
School: Stanford

Analysis: Wilson suffered a stress reaction in his elbow in the first weekend of the season and hasn't played since, although he should be back by the time Stanford begins conference play. He remains the draft's best shot for a complete position player from the college ranks, someone who can hit, hit for power, and provide value on defense.

6. Kris Bryant
POS: 3B/OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: San Diego

Analysis: Bryant came out swinging, hitting eight home runs in San Diego's first 17 games and slugging .897 on the season, although there's still a lot of skepticism about his ability to stay at third base, which just raises the standard for his bat.

7. Clint Frazier
POS: OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-1
WT: 190
School: Loganville (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Frazier has the best bat speed in this draft class but is probably maxed out physically and will play a corner in pro ball -- right if his arm fully recovers from a recent bout of tendinits, left if it doesn't -- so the entire bet here is on his hit tool. He has also started the season strong in front of the right people, including two home runs on Tuesday in a heavily scouted matchup against Meadows.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 01:43:32 am
Law strikes me as someone who wants to be seen as thinking outside the box or going against conventional wisdom. Again I go back to his certainty that Vogelbach wasn't near ready for a promotion late last year. I'd be floored if any other draft "expert" had Frazier anywhere near that low.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 01:44:01 am
BA has an article up on Frazier and Meadows for subscribers if anyone would be so kind as to post it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 01:54:03 am
A very detailed look at who the Cubs might pick from Dan Kirby.

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/cubs-2013-mlb-draft/30153/



Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on March 15, 2013, 07:53:03 am
Law strikes me as someone who wants to be seen as thinking outside the box or going against conventional wisdom. Again I go back to his certainty that Vogelbach wasn't near ready for a promotion late last year. I'd be floored if any other draft "expert" had Frazier anywhere near that low.

I have to admit, there are times I think Keith Law is a dumb person's idea of a smart person.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?822175-2013-Chicago-Cubs-Draft-Class-amp-Signings
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 15, 2013, 08:09:56 am
I have to admit, there are times I think Keith Law is a dumb person's idea of a smart person.

And yet several here seemed to take him as the gospel on Vogelbach....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: brjones on March 15, 2013, 09:26:49 am
Law likes high ceiling and well-roundedness.  From his comments, it sounds like he does not see Frazier as a well-rounded player, which limits his ceiling because he will have to play a corner spot.  Sounds like he likes his bat a lot ("best bat speed in this draft class"), but doesn't see him excelling anywhere else.  Doesn't seem unreasonable to drop him a few spots for that. 

Here's more from his ESPN chat yesterday, just FWIW:

Quote
Kevin (Florida)
You aren't all in on the Clint Frazier bandwagon? Could he really fall to the Red Sox at 7th?

Klaw  (12:13 PM)
I have him in the top ten - that's pretty "all in" for me. He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 15, 2013, 01:52:00 pm
According to CubsDen below, you can stream Sean Manaea's game tonight.

there is a premium pitching matchup tonight: Sean Manaea of Indiana State vs. Thomas Windle of Minnesota. They are arguably the two best college lefties in the draft. You can catch a stream of the game on ulive. Just click live events and scroll down to that game.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 03:38:01 pm
Quote
He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.

Reminds me of all that potential in 6-6 Ryan Harvey. Not saying Meadows is anything like Harvey but this height issue is ridiculous in my opinion.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 15, 2013, 05:11:55 pm
Scouts would say that the 18 year old guy with the athletic frame has room to get bigger and stronger and, hence, more upside and more all-around potential.  Certainly true, as a general rule, with pitchers.  We all know the obvious exceptions.

Of course, with a position player, you have to hit and the athletic-type busts are guys who, as it turns out, just don't hit.  Hard to project down the road whether a guy who can now hit will actually hit in the future against real competition. 

I understand the enthusiasm for Frazier but, geez, you have to eyeball and scout these guys for a prolonged time and it's 2 1/2 months until the draft.  Not sure how anybody can have a strong opinion on Frazier/Meadows at this point.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 15, 2013, 05:44:08 pm
I like Appel.  But if he stumbles, the mascot better watch out.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 06:09:46 pm
Did Keith Law knock Prince Fielder for his lack of future physical projection?

Certainly, too much might be getting made of Frazier right now, but I still don't get the height thing. Law acts like Frazier can't do anything but hit, yet every other person who has seen him raves about many of his other abilities as well.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 15, 2013, 07:33:32 pm
....Of course, with a position player, you have to hit and the athletic-type busts are guys who, as it turns out, just don't hit.  Hard to project down the road whether a guy who can now hit will actually hit in the future against real competition. ...

I agree with your post.  But, the part about hitting is the crucial part.  If the two guys are equivalent hitters, then obviously the tie-break goes to Meadows if he's better defensively and projects more power and speed. 

But good scouts are good at projecting hitters.  Meadows seems to be hitting less well than Frazier for the moment; is there some scouting reason to think that Frazier might hit better later as well?  Or is there some reason to think that Frazier is more likely to not translate when he's facing serious velocity and movement?  I have no idea, but that's the job for the scouts.  And if Frazier looks like he's a truer hitter and has true power presently and doesn't need to build up, then I don't care if he's a corner. 

I'm partly thinking about Cub picks/failures.  Sometimes you can't foresee why a guy will fail against premium pitching.  I don't think Corey or Kelton had any failure flags.  But in other cases, you already know what a guy does now won't work, (Harvey), and he'll need to be fixed. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 08:46:18 pm
Watched Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray pitch tonight ( 9-5-0-0-0-12 ).

He's going to challenge for top five by June. Average FB was 95/96 with a slew of 97s and 98s. He hit 100 three times from the stretch in the 9th. Pretty wicked slider that either dropped straight down or on angle away from righties. Very good control and command.


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 09:03:37 pm
Sean Manaea goes the distance,  9-6-1-0-1-9

At times was 92-94 according to tweets from Perfect Game and Keith Law.

.

Frazier and Meadows both homered today.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on March 15, 2013, 09:08:54 pm
The only thing we know for certain about the 2013 draft is that the Cubs will select the wrong player.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on March 15, 2013, 09:12:28 pm
Bobby Wahl and Kevin Ziomek both strong tonight...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 15, 2013, 09:22:57 pm
Appel's Cardinal are off until next Friday.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft.58
Post by: shasson on March 15, 2013, 10:02:10 pm
For what it's worth, Kris Bryant went 3-3 yesterday, with 3 HR. In 18 games he is hitting .410 and thanks to his 23 walks his on-base is .581. Oh, and his 11 homers have contributed to his 1.049 slugging. He's 6'5" and last year was a Baseball America first-team all american. In his college career he is 31 of 37 in stolen bases.

 And so I ask this sincerely: he is doing that versus Division 1 competition, yet the two high school outfielders are always considered as the top 2 position player draft prospects and he isn't...is that a scouting thing? Scouts' projection for the h.s. guys is that much more compelling than his current production? Or because CF is way more desirable than 3rd base (and his defense doesn't seem to be great at 3B)? Or is their a componant of self-fulfilling-hype-feedback loop. Ok, I don't really know what that means.

The Redsox will take him at 7 and he will be Ryan Braun (but without the medicine cabinet contents).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 15, 2013, 10:07:13 pm
From what I have read, many scouts believe that Bryant will not be able to play third base in the majors, and will have to make it as a corner outfielder.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 16, 2013, 12:06:05 am
If Bryant projects at corner OF, ditto for Frazier. And Bryant is homering and walking at the college level. Of course, it's a scouting decision and probably is best left to the scouts who eyeball these guys over many games.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on March 16, 2013, 12:18:26 am
Quote

Baseball America has Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea ranked as the No. 2 prospect for this June’s major league draft, but until Friday night he never had pitched a nine-inning complete game.

Manaea locked horns with Gophers lefty Tom Windle in a tense pitcher’s duel at the Metrodome, with Twins scouting director Deron Johnson and a throng of other scouts behind the plate.

The 2-1 Indiana State victory ended with a controversial call, as the Gophers loaded the bases and appeared to score the tying run when Manaea’s pitch bounced away from catcher Mike Fitzgerald.

Kurt Schlangen tried scoring from third base, but Manaea covered the plate, and umpire John Priester ruled that Manaea got the tag down in time for the final out.

The Gophers thought Schlangen was clearly safe and were furious as they left the field. Manaea was so excited, he rolled his right ankle jumping in celebration. He limped toward the team bus with ice wrapped around the ankle.

“I was jacked up, so it was all in good fun, I guess,” Manaea said. “Hopefully it’ll be better tomorrow.”

Windle followed last week’s no-hitter against Western Illinois with another complete game, allowing four hits with one strikeout. Manaea allowed six hits and had 10 strikeouts.

Scouts had Windle’s fastball clocked at 89-92 miles per hour, while Manaea’s fastball sat between 92-94 mph.

“It felt good to throw well,” Windle said. “But to come up that close on kind of a controversial call is kind of hard to sit on.”
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 16, 2013, 08:37:31 am
If Bryant projects at corner OF, ditto for Frazier. And Bryant is homering and walking at the college level. Of course, it's a scouting decision and probably is best left to the scouts who eyeball these guys over many games.

Yes.  Personally I'd like to get a really good and powerful hitter.  If he can really hit, he doesn't need to play SS or CF.   So whether Frazier or Bryant, if the scouts really believe in their bats, I don't mind if "probably play corner" comes with the report. 

I just think it's been fun that a lot of the upper guys seem to be off to blazing hot starts, and some other guys (Gray) may be pushing themselves into that conversation.  The two foremost exceptions have been Stanek and Manea.  Manea at 92-94 doesn't seem as overwhelming as the Appel and Gray kinds of arms, although obviously real 92-94 with movement and great support pitches is plenty good.  But I haven't gotten the "wow" buzz on him, in terms of velocity or K's, yet. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 17, 2013, 05:53:53 pm
Ryne Stanek's Sunday outing:  4-2/3 -4-3-1-3-4
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 17, 2013, 05:57:28 pm
Assuming it's not a fake account, Clint Frazier put this on his Twitter earlier today:


@CJF19 Mike Trout body, Bryce Harper playing style, & Josh Hamilton swing - my player comparison for myself.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on March 17, 2013, 08:51:23 pm
DJ Peterson is a beast.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on March 17, 2013, 09:26:01 pm
According to Marlin on PSD the Cubs choices would be take Appel if he's there.  If not then Gray and Bryant would be fighting it out.  Gray seems really interesting to follow.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 17, 2013, 10:36:16 pm
I think Gray belongs in the conversation, but I don't know how anyone could know who the Cubs might take three months out. Did McLeod and company already narrow their choices and announce them to others in the organization who then leaked the info? I doubt it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on March 17, 2013, 10:46:25 pm
I think Gray belongs in the conversation, but I don't know how anyone could know who the Cubs might take three months out. Did McLeod and company already narrow their choices and announce them to others in the organization who then leaked the info? I doubt it.

No kidding!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2013, 12:19:24 am
Highlights from Jonathan Gray's start Friday:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Yc7mjoO9k&list=UU-CQSza3tFofjQJpKoJuvOA&index=5
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 18, 2013, 01:05:37 am
Wow...100 mph on his 109th pitch.  Gray definitely has some electric stuff. 

This draft is beginning to look like it will have 2 or 3 really high end guys at the top, so that no matter what the Astros do, the Cubs will get a great player.  Really nice to see since you don't always have that....even nicer is Appel, Gray and Bryant are college guys and can, presumably, help relatively quickly.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 18, 2013, 06:38:18 am
I would take Frazier if he were there, if the draft were held today.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 18, 2013, 08:19:36 am
Heh, if Frazier combines the best of Trout, Harper, and Hamilton, he'll be pretty good! 

As always, great to see guys looking good and providing a bunch of win-win-win choices. 

The 40th pick isn't the same, of course.  But the more guys are looking great at the top, the more that pushes good guys back.  Would be nice if the first group was deep enough so that the second plateau could extend back through our 2nd pick. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on March 18, 2013, 12:45:13 pm
I think it is more of if the draft were today type of thing.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 18, 2013, 01:21:17 pm
From ESPN draft blog today:

He may have started the year as the second most talked about pitcher on his own staff, but Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray has usurped Dillon Overton -- and almost every other collegiate pitcher -- by putting up crazy numbers in 2013. The Sooner right-hander was once again dominant on Friday, giving up just five hits in a complete game shutout of Northwestern State, striking out 12 and walking none. With a fastball that's been clocked consistently in the high-90's and occasionally reaching triple digits and a slider that will flash plus, Gray has put himself into first-pick consideration for the upcoming draft.

"He's definitely in that group" an AL West scout said. "He ranks behind (Appel) for me just because I'm not sure if the changeup is going to be anything more than an average pitch, but he's got the size and stuff that you look for in an ace. He's one of the more pleasant surprises of the spring."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2013, 03:21:47 pm
ESPN draft contributor Chris Crawford puts out a new top 30.

He has Appel and Gray 1-2, Meadows 3rd, Bryant 4th, Manaea 6th, and Frazier 7th.


http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/03/the-board-2013-volume-iii/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on March 18, 2013, 03:39:18 pm
My prediction: Houston will draft either Meadows or Frazier (whoever will sign for less), and the Cubs will draft a college pitcher who will sign for well above slot, shortly before his arm falls off.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2013, 05:14:21 pm
Questions for BA's Aaron Fitt:


Quote
WISM (NYC): Aaron, going to throw you with a non-Vandy question here. Kris Bryant moved from 3rd to 1st last year, but seemed like a guy who could stick at the hot corner in MiLB ball.

Quote
Aaron Fitt: I don't think Bryant or D.J. Peterson will stick at third base in pro ball. Rich Hill sees Bryant as a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder or first baseman; I kinda like the Jayson Werth comp for him.

.

Quote
Carlos (San Diego, CA): Who are your top 5 college picks for this year's draft? Kris Bryant and Jonathan Gray make the cut right?

Quote
Aaron Fitt: If the draft were today, I'd probably go with those two along with Appel, Manaea and Colin Moran. Philip Ervin, Braden Shipley and D.J. Peterson have to be in that discussion too. Stock falling: Stanek, Jonathon Crawford, Austin Wilson.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 18, 2013, 05:20:33 pm
Elite defensive first basemen need soft hands and quick reaction times. Elite defensive outfielders need strong arms, among many other qualities. Taken together these qualities would seem to make an elite third baseman.

The notion that Bryant profiles is a gold glove first baseman or outfielder but does not profile is one who can stick at third base in the major leagues does not add up.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2013, 07:10:46 pm
Quote
How realistic are Mike Trout comparisons for Clint Frazier? Do you think he has a legitimate chance of going No. 1 overall in the upcoming draft?

Chris Kurtz
Rocklin, Calif.


[Jim Callis]

Quote
An outfielder from Loganville (Ga.) HS, Frazier may have moved ahead of crosstown rival Austin Meadows of Grayson HS as the top high school prospect in this year's draft. But any Trout comparisons are a bit much and he probably won't be the top choice in the 2013 draft.

However, neither of those statements should be construed as a knock on Frazier, who delivered two homers when he matched up against Meadows last week. He looks like a future star.

Based on his major and minor league performance to date, Trout could be a once-in-a-generation type of talent. He's a 6-foot-1, 220-pounder with top-of-the-line speed and hitting skills, not to mention at least above-average power and center-field ability. While Frazier is more highly regarded than Trout was at the same point in his career, Frazier doesn't have the same tools. He's a 5-foot-11, 185-pounder who's more of a plus hitter and projects as a future plus runner who eventually may move to right field. That still makes Frazier a very talented player, even if he pales somewhat in comparison to someone who batted .326/.399/.564 with 49 steals as a 20-year-old rookie last year.

As good as Frazier is, he'd be an atypical No. 1 overall pick. In the 48 previous drafts, only three righthanded-hitting prep outfielders have gone No. 1: Jeff Burroughs (1969, Senators). Shawn Abner (1984, Mets) and Delmon Young (2003, Devil Rays). Abner had a similar profile to Frazier and wound up as one of the biggest No. 1 choice busts in draft history. I believe Frazier is in the Astros' mix for the top selection in June, but at this point I expect Houston to opt for a college pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 18, 2013, 07:33:26 pm
Video of Jonathan Gray vs UCLA a few weeks ago:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpmOv_EhynI&feature=youtu.be


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 19, 2013, 04:35:07 pm
Frazier homered again yesterday.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 19, 2013, 05:25:14 pm
Part of BA piece on Gray:

Gray's bazooka arm has made him a prospect of interest since his freshman year at Eastern Oklahoma State JC, but as he has learned to refine his command and secondary stuff, his draft stock has soared. After Gray showed dazzling stuff during seven shutout innings in a win at UCLA in front of a gaggle of the scouting community's heavy hitters, the buzz intensified. He touched 100 multiple times in the second and third innings, and he was still throwing 98 mph in the seventh, after he had reached the 100-pitch mark. But that wasn't all; he complemented his heater with a plus slider with good depth that ranged from 82-87 mph, and he mixed in a handful of quality 83-84 mph changeups with good bottom.

It was hard not to think of another physical power righty who toed the rubber at Jackie Robinson Stadium plenty of times in the past—former Bruin Gerrit Cole, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft. Gray left UCLA's coaches with a feeling that they had just been beaten by another potential top-five overall pick.

"I'll tell you, he mixed as well as any power pitcher that I've seen in a while," UCLA head coach John Savage said after Oklahoma's 4-0 win. "You've got to give credit where credit's due. When we were looking for a fastball, he threw his breaking ball, he threw his change. It wasn't rear back and let it go and not pitch—it was pitching. It was impressive. I was impressed. He was the best guy we've faced by far this year, and it was because of one, the velocity; two, the command; and three, the mix. It was a true mix: 3-2 change, 3-2 slider—I mean, come on. There certainly was some Cole—yeah, there was. I think anyone that sat back there would have to agree. It was three major league pitches."

Gray's development has accelerated at an impressive clip since he arrived at Oklahoma for his sophomore year. He grew up always wanting be a Sooner—as a football player. He played defensive end and tight end in high school, catching passes from older brother Jack, who went on to play college football at Division II Northeastern State in Oklahoma. But Jonathan realized he had a chance to be drafted in baseball, so he gave up football as a senior—though he says he still misses it.

Gray originally signed with Oklahoma out of high school, but he wasn't ready for the Big 12, so he spent his freshman year in junior-college ball. In high school, he sometimes ran his fastball up to 92 or 94 mph, but as a freshman he occasionally bumped 97-98. He sat regularly in the mid-90s as a sophomore at OU, but his command and feel for pitching had a long way to go. He progressed steadily under Giese's tutelage and finished the season 8-4, 3.16 with 104 strikeouts and 42 walks in 103 innings.

He capped his season with a memorable start at two-time defending national champion South Carolina super regionals. The Sooners were facing elimination after losing the opener, but Gray was ready for Game Two.

"We're playing South Carolina, he comes down to pregame meal in his uniform, and I'm a little worried, thinking he's pretty nervous—Game Two in a super regional against South Carolina," Oklahoma coach Sunny Golloway said. "But the reason he has his uniform on is he wanted to have time after his meal to go to every one of his teammates' room and tell them, 'Don't get on the bus unless you're going to find victory, because we ain't losing today.' You know what? He wasn't wrong, he was right—we didn't lose that day."

In wet conditions, Gray threw six shutout innings against the Gamecocks, allowing just three hits while striking out nine. But play was suspended by rain with the two teams locked in a scoreless tie, and the Gamecocks jumped on the Oklahoma bullpen when play resumed the next day, ending OU's season. Still, it was an important milestone for Gray's development.

"Having that success in that atmosphere against that good ballclub, I think really helped him," Giese said. "You can always look back at your career and see that one moment where you grew, and I give it to that moment for him."

Gray's velocity jumped again this fall, when he touched triple digits on the radar gun for the first time in his life. But more importantly, he spent the offseason working with Giese on refining his secondary stuff. Giese wants him to throw his slider hard, targeting 88 mph. He threw a couple at 87 against UCLA, and they were his best sliders of the day, with vicious bite. But he can take a little off it and throw it at 82-83 when he really needs a strike, which is a sign of his maturation.

The Sooners are wary of throwing too many changeups because his other two pitches can be so devastating, but they know it is important for his development to hone that pitch. And it can be another weapon for him.

"When my changeup's on, it's money, and I throw it a lot," said Gray, who is 4-1, 1.51 with 39 strikeouts and eight walks through 36 innings. "(Giese) usually gives me about four or five chances to throw it early on, to see if I can throw it for a strike or if it's effective. But that opens up a whole new game. It's easy.

"My main goal is to become a full pitcher, not just a guy who goes out there and throws. Because I want to have both pitchability and power. I think they'll go great together."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 19, 2013, 05:39:49 pm
Sounds like a sucker pick.  Too good to be true.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 19, 2013, 05:47:33 pm
Would be nice if both Appel and Gray continue to be dominant and we get a shot at one of them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on March 19, 2013, 08:52:23 pm
Amen to that, Reb.

Is Gerrit Cole going to be up in PIttsburgh this year? I don't even know if he has been called up to Pittsburgh at any point.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on March 19, 2013, 08:59:17 pm
Answering my own question: Cole was sent back to AAA. But he was really good in the FSL and then AA last year, so he could be called up in May after a handful of starts in AAA. He and Taillon have a Prior/Wood vibe. I hope for Pittsburgh's sake their highs are as high, but without all the lows.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 19, 2013, 11:49:38 pm
Cole's numbers weren't all that impressive in the minors for such a supposed stud.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 20, 2013, 12:18:27 am
ERA under 3, better than 1K/IP and holding hitters to a .230 average with two promotions in his rookie year doesn't satisfy you?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 20, 2013, 01:34:56 am
Quote
ERA under 3, better than 1K/IP and holding hitters to a .230 average with two promotions in his rookie year doesn't satisfy you?



The numbers are good but not indicative of the dominance one might expect from a "super" prospect. Barely better than a K/IP for someone with his arm and half of his innings in pitcher friendly A-Ball? Fifty-four hits in 59 innings at AA? Meh.

I certainly wouldn't be disappointed if I were a Pirates fan but I wouldn't be overly excited either.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 20, 2013, 01:41:01 am
Clint Frazier went 1-2 on Tuesday, and according to BA's Nathan Rode intentional walks are creeping into more and more of his plate appearances.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 20, 2013, 09:42:58 pm
Jim Callis chat:



Quote
    Harry (Boston, MA): Hey, Jim. Is Gerrit Cole a fair comp for up-and-coming Jon Gray, or is that too lofty?


Jim Callis: Too lofty. I like Gray a lot and I think he's a top-10 draft pick right now, but Cole showed a better and deeper repertoire over a longer period of time. That said, the comparison isn't crazy, which says a lot about Gray.



Quote
    tim815 (Illinois): Do I throw a hissyfit if the Cubs think Kris Bryant can play 3B or LF well enough to get picked second?


Jim Callis: I wouldn't get angry but that pick would surprise me some. I think the Cubs are going to take a college pitcher. I'd also take Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier over Bryant.


Quote
Jeff (windy city): Hey Jim If you are sitting in cubs spot with the number 2 overall pick, who do you take? Still to early to tell?


Jim Callis: Appel or Manaea.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2013/2614890.html

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 21, 2013, 04:28:18 pm
Two doubles and a homer for Austin Meadows Tuesday.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 21, 2013, 08:23:59 pm
I'm no draft expert but it feels like the top of this current class is going to be pretty strong. It seems like there's more depth at the upper echelon than there's been in years past. Am I crazy for thinking that?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on March 21, 2013, 08:44:21 pm
Actually, the top level is quite poor this year.  It seems as though it's strong because there's not much to distinguish between the top 7 or so.  That gives the impression of "strength".  In all likelihood, we're looking at future platoon players and setup relievers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 21, 2013, 10:32:44 pm
Anyone care to respond with something other than a Jeffism?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on March 21, 2013, 10:57:57 pm
I think that the general consensus is that this draft isn't considered deep.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 21, 2013, 11:00:51 pm
A top heavy draft. Top seven or so look really good. Then a drop off. So, Cubs are in a good spot.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:09:49 pm
Watching Jonathan Gray dominate TCU. Through 5 IP - 0 H, BB, 8 K

The walk was entirely on the umpire as he was as confused on a devastating 0-2 breaking ball as the hitter was. Should be a perfect game to this point.

Gray averaging 96/97 in 45° temps; has hit 100 a few times; fanned one guy on three straight called strikes via the slider; has thrown one 81 mph changeup that drew oohs when it disappeared and the hitter nearly screwed himself into the ground trying to hit it; also has great action on some kind of FB that dives down and in to RH'ers.

The one thing Gray isn't getting is swings and misses with his FB. On the other hand, he throws his slider for strikes like it's nothing.




Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:26:52 pm
And of course I jinx him. A double, a bunt hit on a sacrifice attempt, and a sac fly ends Gray's shutout streak at 21 innings. Gray threw consecutive changes to end the inning, the latter resulting in a popup DP.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:40:29 pm
Gray goes 1-2-3 in the 7th with his 9th K on a great, fading change. Should've had another strikeout though as the ump blew another 0-2 call. Gray is getting a lot of grounders on 0-2 and 1-2 or else he'd have a half dozen more K's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:45:20 pm
Gray's 92nd pitch to start the 8th is 101 mph.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 22, 2013, 03:50:35 pm
Thanks, Chris.  Sounds like he's moved past Manea at this point. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:50:55 pm
Two more K's, both on sliders, one that froze the hitter. That 11 K's for Gray, and he's getting no help from the HP ump who missed two more strikes in the 8th.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 03:53:33 pm
Quote
Sounds like he's moved past Manea at this point.

I've yet to see Appel live, but right now Gray is #1 on my wishlist. He is a pitcher with phenomenal stuff, not a guy with great stuff who pitches. His command and control are impeccable.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 04:04:19 pm
The Sooners take the lead. Let's see if Gray can finish it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 04:13:27 pm
No he can not. His teammates helping to prepare him for life as a Cub.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 22, 2013, 04:14:18 pm
I've yet to see Appel live, but right now Gray is #1 on my wishlist. He is a pitcher with phenomenal stuff, not a guy with great stuff who pitches. His command and control are impeccable.

I've read almost nothing about the prospects.  But the only Gray thing I read gave me the impression he was a competitive, highly motivated guy, whereas the one Manea story I read suggested he was really laid-back, take-it-slow kind of guy.  Wasn't sure his high school grades would be good enough to be college eligible.  I'm thinking the Cubs might prefer the more competitive guy, all else being equal.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 04:22:02 pm
Well that was an interesting 9th.

Leadoff PH single followed by a popped-up sac bunt attempt. Then an error by the SS and passed ball on the catcher. The next hitter ties it with a sac fly on 1-2. Gray records K #12 on a 97 mph FB to end the inning.


9-3-2-1-1-12  (122 pitches)


Last three outings: 25 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 32 K, 1 ER

Keep in mind one of those walks was all on the umpire.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 04:31:11 pm
Quote
But the only Gray thing I read gave me the impression he was a competitive, highly motivated guy

Gray has ML mound presence - all business and extreme confidence. No emotional reactions to the missed calls by the umps or fielding errors by his teammates. In that way, he reminds me of Prior.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 22, 2013, 04:53:50 pm
Of course, it's not a black and white issue.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 05:14:27 pm
Manaea also pitched this afternoon:

7-3-0-0-2-8

100 pitches, 69 strikes
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 06:34:28 pm
Fox Sports Pacific is about to replay Gray's start from today.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 22, 2013, 07:02:44 pm
In that way, he reminds me of Prior.

I was already thinking about Prior from your earlier comments.... and remembering the evening I watched him pitch during his brief time in AA, with Hendry sitting two seats away, and with Prior working at 94-97 into the 7th, hitting the target so well the catcher probably only needed to move his glove more than two inches about four times the entire game.... And all I was thinking was that with Prior joining Wood and Patterson and Zambrano and Choi, the Cubs were going to make it to the WS several times in the last ten years.....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 08:05:49 pm
Oklahoma highlights from Friday. Just a few of Gray though.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwndzyyEWA8&list=UU-CQSza3tFofjQJpKoJuvOA&index=2
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 09:09:22 pm
Livestream of Mark Appel's start that just began:

http://pac-12.com/live/gostanford.aspx

No radar gun though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 22, 2013, 11:52:17 pm
Appel's very good. His only problem might be that he's around the plate too much and will occasionally pay the price. Nothing wrong with his stuff, control, or command though. He surrendered a homer tonight, but otherwise was excellent.


8-6-2-1-1-11


Last 4 starts: 33 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 51 K, 3 ER
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 23, 2013, 12:17:35 am
A Twitter exchange with Jonathan Mayo regarding Gray:

https://twitter.com/sfgigantewill/statuses/315190084641124353
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 23, 2013, 02:12:09 am
I'd still take Appel, personally.

But I'd take Frazier over either of them...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 23, 2013, 03:02:37 am
I'd suggest watching Gray pitch before reaching a final decision.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 23, 2013, 05:52:43 am
I have - he's obviously got a great arm.  And like all guys with great arms, he's 50-50 for Tommy John sooner or later.

The only reason I take Appel over Gray is that he's been consistently great for far longer, and his stuff is just about as good.  Gray's been a fast riser, but his secondary pitches might go away just as suddenly as they blossomed.  Appel has had great offspeed stuff for a long time.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 23, 2013, 06:16:55 am
Quote
The only reason I take Appel over Gray is that he's been consistently great for far longer


This actually isn't the case. It just seems that way since Appel's name has been bandied about longer.

Gray's Sophomore numbers were slightly better than Appel's, and Gray's stats so far this year projected out would be be significantly better than Appel's during his Junior season.

I like both quite a bit. I think Gray might have the higher ceiling though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 23, 2013, 06:18:33 am
http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/03/23/hello-mr-gray/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 23, 2013, 11:28:25 am
The awesome thing is that we're going to have our choice of at least two out of Appel, Gray, and Frazier
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on March 23, 2013, 11:41:30 am
I'd suggest watching Gray pitch before reaching a final decision.

You mean draft decisions shouldn't be based entirely on stats?  I suppose you also think that the more observation a team has of a player (along with other information about attitude, character, work ethic, etc.) the better basis there is for making a choice.   ;)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 23, 2013, 12:14:39 pm
The challenge in scouting, of course, is that you scout what you see this spring, and need to project to what you'll see future.  With Frazier and Meadows, it's not so clear whether the ability to hit HS pitching necessarily guarantees the ability to hit Marmol slilders and Samardz fastballs.   The nice thing with Gray and Appel is that you don't need to do any projecting to see good big-league ability; what they've got right now will work against big-league hitters.  But the impossible thing in projecting Gray and Appel is that you have no idea how to project what ability they'll have in the future after their arms are injured, and it's impossible to project how many years that will take. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 23, 2013, 05:11:31 pm
I'm not sure how reliable Kaplan is or if this quote really tells us anything:


Quote
Last nugget from scouting contact: "I know they want a college pitcher at #2 but they could get the best position player if Appel goes #1.


https://twitter.com/thekapman/status/315473348970831873




Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on March 23, 2013, 10:56:23 pm
Regarding the draft, what say you fellas on MLB instituting a draft lottery like some of the other sports and the NBA?

Peter Gammons brought up something the other day on the Twitter about how unethical it was for a professional sports franchise to actively try to lose for 4-5 years, pocket revenue sharing money and stock up on the first or second draft pick year after year then call that a strategy.

Personally, I would be all for a lottery as long as they did away with that stupid free agent compensation system and the even more idiotic competitive balance draft garbage that has the Cardinals with a chance to add draft picks.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 24, 2013, 12:35:13 am
Austin Meadows through 10 games: .571/.647/1.071

He has 3 homers, 11 RBI, and 11 steals.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 24, 2013, 10:47:29 am
I would abolish the draft entirely, as well as allowing free agency to be determined entirely as a matter of contract between the player and the team signing him.

Yes, that would mean teams willing to spend heavily would have a tremendous competitive advantage.  So what?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 24, 2013, 12:21:55 pm
The most obvious "so what" would be that most of the small market teams would go broke.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 24, 2013, 01:05:40 pm
The most obvious "so what" would be that most of the small market teams would go broke.

That depends entirely on how revenue sharing is handled, and how broadcast and gate revenues are split.

Then again, I am really not upset by the idea that teams be allowed to fold.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 24, 2013, 08:29:40 pm
Why have revenue sharing or broadcast and gate revenue splits at all?  Just let each team keep it's own revenue.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on March 24, 2013, 08:47:52 pm
Why have revenue sharing or broadcast and gate revenue splits at all?  Just let each team keep it's own revenue.

Competitiveness. But they need to redefine how teams qualify for revenue sharing, and then make sure they actually spend the money on baseball operations instead of just putting it in their pockets. The St. Louis Cardinals do not need revenue sharing to make them competitive, and the Marlins' owner doesn't deserve a nickel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on March 24, 2013, 09:20:27 pm
Cubsin, I believe DaveP directed that question to the dullard.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 24, 2013, 10:23:47 pm
Why have revenue sharing or broadcast and gate revenue splits at all?  Just let each team keep it's own revenue.

Who are you asking?

I don't recall advocating revenue sharing... or opposing it, but revenue collected by the league for licensing and for broadcast rights would need to be split in some manner, and some might refer to that as revenue sharing, unless, of course, you think the league offices should just hold onto all of it and raise Bud's salary.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on March 25, 2013, 12:26:46 am
Competitiveness. But they need to redefine how teams qualify for revenue sharing, and then make sure they actually spend the money on baseball operations instead of just putting it in their pockets. The St. Louis Cardinals do not need revenue sharing to make them competitive, and the Marlins' owner doesn't deserve a nickel.
Add the Minnesota Twins owners to that list.  A couple years ago they used the revenue sharing money to pay bonuses to management.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 25, 2013, 08:48:53 am
How do you know that the money for bonuses came from revenue sharing?  Couldn't it have come from gate revenue?

And why shouldn't management get bonuses?  Epstein and Hoyer will probably have substantial impact on the success of the Cubs.  Shouldn't they be rewarded for their work?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2013, 02:42:38 pm
Anyone have ESPN Insider? Chris Crawford has a draft update:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9095330/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-keeps-dominating-stanford-mark-appel-no-1-prospect-mlb-draft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 25, 2013, 02:48:32 pm
Anyone have ESPN Insider? Chris Crawford has a draft update:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9095330/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-keeps-dominating-stanford-mark-appel-no-1-prospect-mlb-draft

Winter has officially passed, which means that things are starting to heat up on the scouting path for the 2013 draft. This week we saw the first start of the season by one of the best arms in the class, the dynamic-duo from Georgia continuing their quest for world domination, and the collegiate bats doing whatever the opposite of world domination is.

• One of the most impressive things about Jonathan Gray's current run of dominance is that he's done it against quality competition, and this weekend he was facing another solid lineup in TCU. Once again, Gray was up to the challenge. The Oklahoma right-hander struck out 12 and gave up just one earned run in his nine innings of work, and didn't give up a hit until the sixth inning. Gray once again hit 100 mph on guns, and his wipeout slider kept the Horned Frogs off-balance all day.

• Mark Appel was making his first start in two weeks -- Stanford was off for spring break last week -- and the Cardinal right-hander did show some rust. In a 6-4 victory against Utah, Appel gave up just one run and struck out 11 over his eight innings, but did give up six hits and the secondary offerings weren't as good as they have been for the most of the year.

"(Appel) certainly wasn't as good as he was against Fresno State or Texas, but that's a tough standard to live up to" a National League scout said. "The velocity is there, the command is so much better than last year and with respect to [Gray], he's the best player in the class and it isn't even close."

• TCU's decision to make Andrew Mitchell their closer may have solidified the Horned Frogs bullpen, but the decision also meant that one of the most talented arms in the 2013 class was relegated to only 11 innings pitched this season. Thankfully, Mitchell was moved into the rotation Sunday, and the right-hander showed why he's so highly regarded. Mitchell went only 4 2/3 innings, but he struck out six and all six hits the right-hander gave up were singles. With a fastball that can get up to 97 and a good curveball and change, Mitchell has a chance to go in the top half of the first round come June.

• If there was a chief concern teams had about Arizona State's Trevor Williams coming into the season was an inability to miss bats despite having above-average stuff. The Sun Devil right-hander got off to a solid start, but has really struggled over his last two outings in conference play. After giving up 13 hits and seven earned runs against Washington State last week, Williams was generally ineffective against Oregon State, going five innings and giving up three runs and seven hits.

"I'd say he's one of, if not the most, frustrating pitchers in the class," an AL East scout said. "I don't know if it's a case where he's just not trusting his stuff against better competition, but it sure seems like something is going on. Two weeks ago he'd be a guy I'd recommend in the top 10. Now I'm not so sure."

• There was good and bad news regarding Ryne Stanek's start on Saturday against South Carolina. The good news is that Stanek did throw strikes, giving up no walks and striking out seven in a complete game victory. The bad news is that he was allowed to throw 125 pitches on short rest. Even with six days between starts, that's on the high side, and adding unnecessary stress on the 21 year-old's right arm.

Hitters

• The Austin Meadows-Clint Frazier on March 12 had the hype of a heavyweight fight in scouting circles, and popular opinion after Frazier hit two mammoth homers was that Frazier had passed Meadows on draft boards.

Not so fast my friend.

Meadows has been red-hot lately, going 8-for-11 over his last three games with two homers and three doubles. In addition to the scorching hitting, the left-handed hitting outfielder has been a force on the bases with 11 stolen bases in his ten games so far.

"Meadows would certainly go ahead of Frazier for me, and I say that with all due respect" an NL Central scout said. "He's going to play center field, he's going to steal 30 bases, and he's going to hit. I like Frazier a lot, but he's a corner outfielder and he doesn't have the projection that Meadows does. It would be a mistake to take (Frazier) over Meadows."

Frazier hasn't exactly been chopped liver at the plate, himself. The right-handed hitting outfielder hit his seventh homer of the season on Tuesday, and no player has more bat speed in this year's class. Even as a guy who's future is more than likely at a corner outfield position, Frazier has a chance to go high, thanks in part to his offensive upside and the lack of any semblance of depth in the collegiate ranks.

• Keith Law and I were in Tempe to see New Mexico third-baseman DJ Peterson last Wednesday, and the results were mixed at best. This weekend, Peterson faced what will likely be the toughest pitcher he'll see all year in Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley. Peterson failed to accumulate a hit against the Wolfpack right-hander, flying out twice and grounding into a double play.

"For me, it's simply a matter of scouting with stats on Peterson" an AL scout said. "I can't take a one-tool guy who's going to more than likely end up at first base on day one unless he's got 70-80 power, and (Peterson) doesn't have it. The numbers are great, but if you put [San Diego third baseman Kris] Bryant on that team, then the numbers would be even wackier."

Peterson is hitting .392/.496/.876 on the year, but the Lobos play in one of the great hitter's ballparks in all of college baseball.

• While there's almost no chance of him catching Jon Denney, Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Covington, Wash.) has solidified himself as the second-best prep catcher in the class. The left-handed hitting backstop has put up a .562 on-base percentage to start the season, while continuing to show the best catch-and-throw skills of any prep catcher available this year. The power numbers haven't shown up yet, but scouts believe that as he fills out his frame the pop will come, and McGuire is absolutely a day-one candidate this year.

• Finally, it is worth nothing that Trey Ball from New Castle (Ind.) HS. -- who ranked No.11 on Keith Law's Future 50 -- will get his season underway today when New Castle takes on Hagerstown. Ball is the best two-way prospect in the class, and while most prefer him in the outfield, a team could fall in love with his size (6-foot-6, 190 pounds) and projection on the mound.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2013, 03:00:52 pm
Thank you Ray. Very interesting notes as well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 25, 2013, 03:16:02 pm
No problem.

I wonder if a good comp for Frazier would be Oscar Taveras. 

Amazed at the fall Stanek has undergone.  And, now, 125 pitches.  It wouldn't surprise me if something was already wrong with his arm considering all the trouble he's been having. He might be a good guy to scoop up in the third after he undergoes TJ surgery in a few months.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 25, 2013, 04:14:24 pm
Add the Minnesota Twins owners to that list.  A couple years ago they used the revenue sharing money to pay bonuses to management.

And if bonuses were needed to keep a Hoyer, Epstein and McCleod (assuming they actually are as good as we hope), wouldn't that be worth it?

Is it better to spend money on a single player, or on management which will be shaping a roster?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2013, 06:04:40 pm
Quote
Amazed at the fall Stanek has undergone.  And, now, 125 pitches.  It wouldn't surprise me if something was already wrong with his arm considering all the trouble he's been having.

Stanek reportedly looked as good on Sunday as he has all year. In fact, he was just named SEC pitcher of the week for that start. Witnesses said he was 94-95 with his FB. But he's had some mediocre starts where he's struggled with both command and control. I think his arm is probably fine though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2013, 06:10:11 pm
Perfect Game's Patrick Ebert:

Quote
Ryne Stanek - While Stanek hasn't enjoyed the best of starts to the 2013 season, Arkansas' pitching staff has been rock solid this year, and Stanek was very sharp against South Carolina on Saturday. Frankie Piliere was in attendance at this game and shared his thoughts in the PG MLB Draft Blog. I'm not going to add too much more to what Frankie said, since he painted the picture perfectly, but I will reinforce just how impressive he looked this weekend. The fastball was humming, the slider was sharp in the mid- to late-innings and he really seemed in tune in his dominant CG performance.


Quote
Jonathan Gray - This was my first look at Gray, a big-bodied RHP with velocity to match his size. The TV broadcast had his fastball at 96-98, which isn't crazy considering reports indicate he's topped triple digits this spring. His breaking ball is an equally nasty pitch, thrown in the mid- to upper-80s with really sharp two-plane break away from RH batters. The velocity suggests it's a slider, but it looks to be thrown more like a curve. Whatever it is, it's nasty, and the hitters also had no chance catching up to his fastball. He attacked hitters with both pitches and really pounded the strike zone to go nine innings (in a 12 inning game). He maintained his velocity deep into the game, and he also mixed in a really nice changeup, which was just icing on the cake. That pitch showed really good fading/sinking action late and down in the zone, with a great speed differential to his fastball. There is some effort to his delivery, but I walked away very impressed. The only thing that came to mind is where he fell in the draft. With his stuff there's no reason to think he won't be in the Astros' discussion for the first overall pick, however his body type is somewhat unlike what you expect from a 1/1. You usually think of guys like Appel, Manaea and even Stanek with tall, lanky yet strong, projectable and well proportioned builds. Gray isn't out of shape by any means, but he's not in the same conversation when it comes to body type.



http://www.perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=9908&MessageID=20333#post20333
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 25, 2013, 07:10:33 pm
..."(Appel) certainly wasn't as good as he was against Fresno State or Texas, but that's a tough standard to live up to" a National League scout said. "The velocity is there, the command is so much better than last year and with respect to [Gray], he's the best player in the class and it isn't even close."
....


Not to be dim, but the "he" that's the best player and it't not close, "he" is Appel, and it's not close?  Or "he" is Gray, and it's not close? 


I'm assuming he meant Appel, right? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 25, 2013, 07:14:49 pm

Not to be dim, but the "he" that's the best player and it't not close, "he" is Appel, and it's not close?  Or "he" is Gray, and it's not close? 


I'm assuming he meant Appel, right? 

I took it to mean Appel....but, you're right, shoddy writing there.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 25, 2013, 07:42:34 pm

Not to be dim, but the "he" that's the best player and it't not close, "he" is Appel, and it's not close?  Or "he" is Gray, and it's not close? 


I'm assuming he meant Appel, right? 

My exact question - I have no idea which guy he's talking about.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 25, 2013, 08:29:50 pm
He's saying with all due respect to Gray, Appel's the best player despite Appel not being as good in his last start as he had been previously.

Having seen them both pitch now, I fail to see where Appel is significantly better anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on March 25, 2013, 10:05:12 pm
I also found myself questioning that sentence.

I still think Appel is pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 03:30:10 am
Quote
If Appel wasn’t the right choice with the sixth overall pick, why would he make sense at No. 2 a year later?

“Well, it’s a different draft. It’s certainly a different year,” McLeod said. “The way our board lined up last year – I said it (at the time) – we simply liked Albert Almora more than we liked Mark Appel.

“That’s no slight to Mark Appel. (Like I said), you take the position player at the top. For us, we got a kid we thought was going to be a premium centerfielder and hit in the middle of the order. Those guys are hard to find.

“Mark certainly (is) someone (who’s) proven to be a first-round guy. He’s gone out and done well so far this year. We’ve spent a lot of time with him and we will continue to.”   

The Cubs will have a representative at every start for each of the college pitchers they’re considering with the No. 2 pick.

Epstein recently ducked out of camp to watch Gray in Norman, Okla., as part of the blanket coverage. Special assistant Tim Wilken, amateur scouting director Jaron Madison and national crosscheckers Sam Hughes, Matt Dorey and Ron Tostenson will all get multiple looks at those pitchers.

Earlier this month, general manager Jed Hoyer was part of the group that went over to Surprise Stadium for a college tournament that included Arkansas (Ryne Stanek) and Gonzaga (Marco Gonzales). When the Cubs visit the Atlanta Braves during Final Four weekend, two dynamic high school outfielders (Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier) will be in the area.




http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/no-2-overall-pick-cubs-hope-hit-their-verlander
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 28, 2013, 06:33:18 am
You would think that article would address the fact that Appel looks to have improved.  It isn't as cut and dried as different year/different board I would think.  I'm by no means an expert, but I've changed my mind about him as well.  Still a long way, but I think he'd be a quality pick right now.

and, now, after posting, I'm bout to click the link and read the article, rather than the other way around.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2013, 07:24:56 am
Lots of pitching prospects are quality picks at the time, but injury is far more likely to them than position players, not just before they reach the majors, but afterward.

If you have a pitching prospect believed to be the next Greg Maddux and a hitting prospect believed to be the Next Mark Grace both available with the top pick in the draft, the vastly higher likelihood the pitching prospect will break down before reaching the majors, or break down early in his career such as Prior did, make the Grace prospect a far better pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 28, 2013, 10:33:05 am
The most telling sentence in that article is "you take the position player at the top."

To me that indicates that they had Appel rated extremely high, perhaps as highly as Almora. But given the relative risk of a hitter versus a pitcher, they decided to go with the hitter. If that is their philosophy, it dramatically affects the way we view the upcoming draft.

Appel and Gray, for as special as they seem, are no Prior or Strasburg. And both Prior and Strasburg have sustained massive injuries. One's career is ruined. The other still pitches. Given that the pitching talent in this draft has not separated itself from the hitters, I'll be shocked if we don't take a bat at #2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 28, 2013, 11:16:07 am
My guess is that they're leaning towards taking a starter.  Need has to factor in.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 28, 2013, 11:46:02 am
Theo recently made a comment about building farm system quality through quantity. Unless there is a CLEAR #1 choice, ala Prior/Strasburg, I think this front office recognizes that pitchers are enough of a crapshoot that you're probably as likely to get a solid starter out of the 3rd round as the 1st. Even with "once-in-a-generation talents," our own team history shows quite painfully how risky pitchers are. Prior was supposed to be textbook, as in you look up "pitcher" in the dictionary and see a picture of Prior.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a draft this year similar to last year: highest rated position player taken 1st, followed by a TON of pitching. That seems consistent with their philosophy of BPA, quality through quantity, and recognizing the inherent riskiness of pitching vs hitting prospects.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2013, 11:47:53 am
My guess is that they're leaning towards taking a starter.  Need has to factor in.

The greatest need is that the draft pick end up being productive at the major league level and does not end up a bust.  The best way to assure that is not to take a pitcher.

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/no-2-overall-pick-cubs-hope-hit-their-verlander
Quote
Almost a decade ago, senior vice president of scouting and player development Jason McLeod reunited with Theo Epstein in the Boston Red Sox front office and their analysis still influences their thinking at Clark and Addison.

“We had crunched a lot of NCAA data on the performance side of things and then we just started looking at it on the draft side,” McLeod recalled. “What is the draft telling us over the years? Where is the talent coming from? What areas? What positions? There are just so many variables with pitching, injuries, some of the innings these guys have to throw. Everyone would love to hit on a Justin Verlander at No. 2 overall.

“If we go that route, hopefully our guy turns into that kind of guy. But if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”

Theo took over the Red Sox late in 2002.  He was responsible for every Red Sox draft from the June 2003 draft thru June of 2011, and then last year the Cubs draft, so there is a considerable history to look at, and then also a considerable history of his own for him to consider and reflect on in June of this year when deciding who to draft, and who he and his scouting staff have had the best track record in scouting and projecting in the past.

In 23 first round draft picks with the Red Sox, he took 11 pitchers.  With the three 1st round draft picks last year with the Cubs he took 2, but both of those were supplemental picks -- 43rd and 56th.

With the 23 first round draft picks under the Red Sox, only 2 were top 20 picks, one a 17th and the other a 19th.  And of the 11 pitchers taken, the best of them to date has been Clay Buchholz, with the overall major league record of those pitchers being 66-65.  This means that to date we have only seen Theo responsible for one draft with a top ten pick, and he went with Almora over a pitcher last year.

No doubt they will heavily scout the top arms in the draft.

Also no doubt they will heavily scout the top position players in the draft.

There is considerable doubt that what position the Cubs need filled now will play any role in what player they will draft in June.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 28, 2013, 12:03:00 pm
Need will be a factor, no doubt.  As it should be.  Likely not the major factor.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2013, 12:51:39 pm
Play, can you in looking thru Theo's track record of first round draft picks find any indication of need being a factor in those picks?

Certainly wasn't last year.  They picked Almora at a time they already had Jackson in the system, and when they had a tentative agreement in place for Soler.

Look at the history of his picks with the Red Sox.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=BOS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg

Perhaps you read things better than I do, but I see no indication of "need" being a factor.  In 2010, with the 20th pick in the draft, the 2nd highest pick Theo had been able to direct, the Red Sox took a 2B, when Pedroia was 26 years old and already a star for the Sox. 

I'm not sure what you are basing your conclusion on beyond what YOU think they should do.  I am basing my conclusion on Theo's track record and their public comments on their approach to the draft, both quite consistent, and neither showing any inclination to look much, if at all, at position needs on the roster with a first round draft pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on March 28, 2013, 01:13:57 pm
Since the Cubs are spending time and money following Appel, Gray and Manaea, it's seems safe to assume that they're not locked in on the best position player available. None of those guys will slip into the second round, barring major health issues.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on March 28, 2013, 01:20:54 pm
Clearly their research has convinced the Cubs' decision-makers that, in general, it's much better to take a really talented position player with a high pick than even a near major league ready pitcher, even if the pitcher is considered to be the better prospect. This seems to be a very strong organizational bias.

So I would expect them to pass on any of the available pitchers and take the best position player unless (1) the best position player is simply not all that promising as an impact guy, and (2) the pitcher is a truly outstanding prospect (in all aspects of the evaluation process these guys use now) who they also judge to be a relatively low injury risk.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 28, 2013, 01:21:16 pm
Jes, I can readily accept that Theo's history has been to be reluctant to use top draft picks on starting pitchers.  But was the Red Sox organization under his leadership ever as bereft of starting pitching prospects as is the current Cubs organization?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 28, 2013, 01:29:28 pm
What Ron said. Obviously they're not writing off the top pitching prospects - if they feel that Appel or Gray or whomever really elevates themselves into clear cut top talent status, they'll pick that guy. It only makes sense to follow those guys, then, to see if one of them really is THAT special.

The general thrust of the front office comments suggest that, by their calculus, it's extremely difficult for a pitcher to elevate themselves so, given larger risks inherent in SP picks.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 28, 2013, 01:44:02 pm
I think one key with regards to Appel is that he shouldn't be very far away.  I think the closer they get to the beginning of their "window" the more valuable an upper tier pitcher who can contribute quickly becomes.  Assuming talent is at least equal in the scouts eyes, of course.  That's part of the reason I'm on the Appel/Gray bandwagon if they grade out properly.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 28, 2013, 03:39:28 pm
Think some may be reading too much into Theo's comments about position player/pitcher as it applies to this year's first round pick.

If draft were held today or top 6/7 guys continue to perform at or near current level by June, seems to me that it is highly likely that Theo will take either Appel or Gray. 

Both of these guys project as a possible #1 starter, or at least as a #2.  At the moment, don't see anybody in the HS class who projects as a Harper, Strawberry, ARod type of guy who just has to go #1 given their upside at time of the draft.  I suppose it is possible that Meadows, a 5-tool guy, could go crazy in the next couple of months and move into that category.  But, absent that, I think you will see Theo go with Appel or Gray---assuming their stock stays where it is now.  That could change, of course.  And, if Meadows emerges that way, he goes to Astros at #1.

Don't see them taking a corner OF bat, Frazier or Bryant, over Appel or Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on March 28, 2013, 05:06:09 pm

Don't see them taking a corner OF bat, Frazier or Bryant, over Appel or Gray.

They already have so many legitimate CF prospects (Almora, Jackson, Ha, Szczur, Martin) that I don't consider Meadows' ability to stay there a significant plus. If Frazier or Bryant looked like a better offensive player than Meadows, they should take him over Meadows. Whether they'll take a pitcher or a position player is obviously undecided at the moment. My current preference would be Gray or Appel in round one and the best available catching prospect in round two, with at least one more catcher in rounds 3-7.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 28, 2013, 06:14:04 pm
The most telling sentence in that article is "you take the position player at the top."
Quote
So pitching comes from everywhere.
[/color]
[/color]Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”.....
“If you look at the history of the draft, the position players up high are more of a sure bet[/color] if you get the good ones,” McLeod said. “Unfortunately, the college class isn’t as strong as in some years. There are a couple of guys that have stepped up so far this year that certainly are putting themselves on a map as considerations up there. But not as strong as a typical year.

I thought McLeod's comments were really good, with an appropriate level of nuance.  There are many variables to the whole discussion. 

I think a lot of the "principles" are applicable in the all-else-being-equal scenarios.  But things are rarely equal.  Obviously if you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally certain, you take the player, because his talent will last.  Tie, and perhaps anything close to a tie, goes to player.  Maybe it doesn't even need to be very close.  But will it be even remotely close to a tie this draft?  As reb said, the pool of players doesn't sound like a lot of Griffey/Arod types. 

Pitchers aren't the only picks to fail.  Position players up high are more of a sure bet.... IF YOU GET THE GOOD ONES.  Last year by their words and actions they were very confident that Almora was going to be a good one.  But are there any "more of a sure bet" players available? 

As McLeod notes, "Unfortunately, the college class isn’t as strong as in some years. There are a couple of guys that have stepped up .... But not as strong as a typical year."  Not sure who is out there.  Obviously it's up the scouting, but I could certainly understand how guys like Bryant, Frazier, and Meadows might not seem like safe, low-risk guys.  I hope they do, because I'd prefer to get a "more of a sure bet" "good one" player than an injury-vulnerable pitcher.  But, I think there's a fair chance the risk with the players may be high enough so that the risk with the pitchers seems justifiable.  It's too bad, I wish there was a griffey or ARod available. 

Of course as tico noted, Appel and Gray, for as special as they seem, are no Prior or Strasburg, either. 

I don't know expect that "need" plays a strong role.  But it is possible that they think between Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Almora, and Soler, that perhaps they already have a pretty solid stock of potential star, impact, middle-of-the-order players. 

There are some baseball people who believe strongly in the importance of an "ace" pitcher to front-line a staff.  reb, you are in that group, no?  Perhaps the Cubs won't see that sure-bet of a player, and will see this as a unique opportunity to get somebody for that ace role, even if he may not last forever.  While it's more likely to get a star pitcher than a star player outside of the first round, stars of either kind are hard to find, and Appel and Gray may seem to provide a unique opportunity to get one.   

I won't be at all surprised either way.

And, a nice thing is that I feel pretty confident that whichever choice is made, that management will have thought it through and will understand the risks.  If they take a pitcher, it won't be because they don't really understand how injury-vulnerable they are. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 28, 2013, 06:20:01 pm
From McLeod today:


“If we go that route (selecting a pitcher early), hopefully our guy turns into that kind of guy (an ace). But if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”

There isn't much room to read into that - it's pretty explicit. Recent comments from Houer and Theo I read as being similarly explicit. I think there's a clear pattern here of our team president, GM, and scouting director having a preference for position player talent early in drafts, all else being equal.

No one is saying that they WON'T draft a pitcher. The suggestion being made (by the front office itself, I may add) is that they are going to take a position player unless a pitcher really separates himself from the pack. I know scouts and fans have their personal favorites, but at this point, I believe the general consensus remains that any of Appel, Grey, Manea, Meadows, or Frazier are legit #1 selections. If our front office agrees with that assessment come draft day, expect a hitter

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2013, 06:42:27 pm
Jes, I can readily accept that Theo's history has been to be reluctant to use top draft picks on starting pitchers.  But was the Red Sox organization under his leadership ever as bereft of starting pitching prospects as is the current Cubs organization?

Play, you seem to be missing a very big part of what the Theocracy has made clear.

It is not just that they are concerned about the much greater injury risk for pitchers than for position players, but it is also that they believe high impact starting pitchers are more likely to come from lower round draft picks than high impact position players are to be found in lower rounds, and perhaps most importantly that they have also made clear they believe best pitchers taken in many drafts are simply not taken by anyone in the first round.

Let me repeat the quote from McLeod:

Quote
if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”

They have made clear that very similar to 2012, they are likely to have a heavy majority of players picked in rounds 2-10 who are pitchers, and THAT will be at least in part because of need.

First round likely will be the guy they believe is most likely to be a heavy impact player, regardless his position.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 07:32:53 pm
Quote
Of course as tico noted, Appel and Gray, for as special as they seem, are no Prior or Strasburg, either. 

I'm watching Gray again right now and let me tell you, he's close. Very, very close.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 28, 2013, 07:53:31 pm
I think one key with regards to Appel is that he shouldn't be very far away.  I think the closer they get to the beginning of their "window" the more valuable an upper tier pitcher who can contribute quickly becomes.  Assuming talent is at least equal in the scouts eyes, of course.  That's part of the reason I'm on the Appel/Gray bandwagon if they grade out properly.

How close they are to major league ready also will fit into the calculation of how long a team is likely to get high productive output from them before the arm wears out or they are likely to suffer injury.  Each added year in the minors for the pitcher is not just one more year of wear on the arm, but one more year when there may be an injury seriously reducing the contribution which might be made in the majors.

I think a lot of the "principles" are applicable in the all-else-being-equal scenarios.  But things are rarely equal.  Obviously if you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally certain, you take the player, because his talent will last.  Tie, and perhaps anything close to a tie, goes to player.  Maybe it doesn't even need to be very close.  But will it be even remotely close to a tie this draft?  As reb said, the pool of players doesn't sound like a lot of Griffey/Arod types. 

We don't have to be talking about Griffey/ARod types.  As I have pointed out, if the best two prospects available to a team with the top pick in the draft and one was a lock to be a firstbaseman and hitter in the mold and performance level of a Mark Grace, and the other was a lock to be a pitcher as good as Greg Maddux, the injury risk involved would still give the nod to Grace... and if the team later wanted to have that pitcher on staff, they do like the Braves did and sign him when he pursues free agency.

... it is possible that they think between Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Almora, and Soler, that perhaps they already have a pretty solid stock of potential star, impact, middle-of-the-order players. 

It is never possible to have too many high impact, middle of the order bats.  They not only do wonders in helping you score runs, they are easily traded to other teams which like to score runs.


There are some baseball people who believe strongly in the importance of an "ace" pitcher to front-line a staff.

But the question is how you acquire them.

If you look at the major league pitching leaders in 2012, of the 10 pitchers with the highest WAR for pitchers you have the following list, to which I have added how the player was acquired, and if by draft, then by the round when they were drafted:
1.   Verlander (DET)   7.4   1st round -- 2nd pick overall
2.   Price (TBR)           6.4   1st round 1st pick
3.   Kershaw (LAD)   6.3   1st round -- 7th pick overall
4.   Harrison (TEX)   6.2   Trade -- 3rd round
5.   Cueto (CIN)   5.8   Dominican signing
   Sale (CHW)   5.8   1st round -- 13th pick overall
7.   Dickey (NYM)   5.5   FA -- 1st round 18th pick overall
8.   Kuroda (NYY)   5.2   Trade -- FA from Japan
9.   Peavy (CHW)   5.0   Trade -- 15th round
10.   Hernandez (SEA)4.6   Venezualan FA

And the same for 2011:
WAR for Pitchers
1.   Halladay (PHI)   8.5   Trade 1st round -- 17th pick overall
2.   Verlander (DET)   8.3   1st round -- 2nd pick overall
   Lee (PHI)           8.3   FA -- 4th round
4.   Sabathia (NYY)   7.0    FA -- 1st round, 20th pick overall
5.   Weaver (LAA)   6.7   1st round -- 12th pick overall
6.   Kershaw (LAD)   6.3   1st round -- 7th pick overall
7.   Romero (TOR)   6.2   1st round -- 6th pick overall
   Hamels (PHI)   6.2   1st round -- 17th pick overall
9.   Beckett (BOS)   5.5   Trade -- 1st round 2nd pick
10.   Fister (2TM)   5.0   Trade -- 7th round

You know, after looking at the list, I know what the Theocracy has said, and I am sure that they sat down and carefully looked at things a decade or so ago when they came up with their approach... but I am starting to wonder if perhaps more careful use of young pitchers might have changed things more than a little, or perhaps simply better scouting.

On those two lists there are 23 pitcher positions on the lists (with a couple of pitchers appearing twice, but I am counting each position on the list separately), you have 3 of them who were foreign FA signings,leaving 20 positions on the lists, and of the 20, 23 of them, 65%, were initially 1st round draft picks, with 7 of the 20 being picked in one of the 1st 7 slots the year they were drafted.

From that, I don't know that you can really any longer argue that top pitchers may be as likely found at lower levels of the draft as they once were.

Appel is looking like a better draft pick to me than he was before I actually looked at who the top pitchers were each of the last two years and where they came from.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 08:10:51 pm
Jonathan Gray had a perfect game into the 7th before lousy HP umpiring reared its ugly head. Two blown strike calls lead to the first hit. Then the SS threw high on a slow roller for another "hit". A double play broke up the shutout. Gray hit 101 on the next pitch.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 08:41:48 pm
My new concern is that the Astros will take Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 28, 2013, 08:54:16 pm
I'm not sure that Theo is lumping college position players with HS position players in terms of draft history.  They're not the same.

College guys like Teixiera, Wieters, Posey, Zimmerman, Braun, etc have played against top competition.  (I know there are some washouts too, of course).

I think the enthusiasm for Almora was a combination of factors:  his career against international competition and his up-the-middle defense, in addition to his offensive upside (and exceptional makeup).  Not a lot of guys like that.

As Craig notes, I think the value of an ace #1 pitcher is enormous.  There are, maybe, a dozen of those guys around?  So, if you have a chance to get a potential ace with the #2 pick, tough to pass up.  I could see doing it for a very high probability college bat or a once in 5-7 years HS bat maybe. 

Just before the Strawberry draft, one scouting director said if had to choose between Strawberry or the entire rest of the first round combined from pick from #2 to the end of the first round--he'd take Strawberry over the field.  What do you think?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp#season=1980&player_name=&draft_type=JR&draft_team=&draft_round=&page=1&sort_order=&sorted_by=
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 09:00:22 pm
Gray goes the distance again: 9-2-1-1-0-12

He allowed one legit hit which only occurred after the ump missed two strike calls. Went to a 3-ball count on two, maybe three batters. Topped out at 101, hit 100 a few times. Velocity dropped a bit late as he wasn't 97-98 as consistently the last few innings. Slider was brutal and he threw about a dozen changeups, mostly early, several of which were sublime.

Gray's allowed 2 earned runs over his last 34 innings. That stretch includes 44 K's and 2 walks.

No pitch count given yet.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on March 28, 2013, 09:07:04 pm
His K to BB ratio is nuts.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 09:07:14 pm
Former ML pitcher Greg Swindell:

@KevinDunnLHN don't know. My TV didn't get the game. Did see Jonathan Gray though. Three words. WOW


https://twitter.com/GregSwindell/statuses/317456814516105216
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 28, 2013, 09:10:27 pm
I'm not sure that Theo is lumping college position players with HS position players in terms of draft history.  They're not the same....

Exactly.  Other than Bryant, what other college bats are even in the discussion for #2?  Meadows and Frazier might be great.  And if Frazier is a super-duper hitter, we can use a premier long-term hitter in LF, or RF, or wherever we can fit him.  But it's hard to be a sure-bet when you're a HS bat.  I'll love it if we pick him, and if he proves to be the real deal.  Or Meadows, if we have an OF full of stud-hitters who are all outstanding defensively and several of which could play CF, wonderful. 

But I wonder how certain and can't-miss a HS hitter will be, performance-wise.  That's up for those scouts to evaluate. 

I guess I'm thinking with Appel and Gray, those are going to be pretty much ready-now guys.  And it doesn't take any scouting projection to see them take their stuff, pretty much exactly as it is now, and being good big-leaguers.  Easy scout. 



Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 09:18:24 pm
Gray would be the Cubs #2 right now, in my opinion.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 28, 2013, 09:55:44 pm
Gray would be the Cubs #2 right now, in my opinion.

From Keith Law's chat today:

Steve (California)

Have heard some talk about Jonathan Grey being in contention for #1-1, and Manea falling out of the Top 10. Too rash, or trending that way?

Klaw

I mentioned those points in a recent draft blog post - I think that's the realistic-pessimistic view on Manaea, and I think Gray is the alternative to Appel at 1-1 right now. Cubs fans should be most excited about Gray, because his emergence would mean, today, that they are guaranteed to get a top-tier college starter who projects as at least a good #2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 10:03:39 pm
Matt Garrioch profiles Gray. John Sickels joined the comment section as he was watching Gray pitch tonight.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/28/4148614/2013-mlb-draft-profile-jonathan-gray-rhp-oklahoma


I don't agree with Garrioch's assessment of Gray's athleticism.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 28, 2013, 10:10:56 pm
Appel and Gray 1-2 is fine, but history is what it is.  50-50 for TJ or worse, no matter what their mechanics look like now.  That's why the bias towards hitters is, in general terms, a sign that this administration really gets it.

That said, Frazier is a HS hitter and thus, projection is a major part of the deal.  And you're looking at 3-4 years until he contributes, while Appel could be in the rotation on opening day in 2014.  That's why Theo is getting paid a lot of money.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 10:23:19 pm
Quote
while Appel could be in the rotation on opening day in 2014. 


Gray could be too. In fact, I think Gray could be effective in the majors right now. He has Prior-like command with 3 more mph on his average FB. Breaking ball is as good as Prior's as well. Prior had more deception and thus got more swings and misses on his FB, but then Prior probably got a higher % of those than just about any recent pitcher. By several accounts, Appel doesn't get a lot of hitters to swing through his FB either.

I understand your concern over health issues, but I'd hate to pass up on a talent like this.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 10:30:44 pm
The Garrioch link includes comments from someone who says he used to scout for the Jays and Nationals and currently scouts college players freelance. Here are two of his comments on Gray:

In response to whether Gray could really pass Appel:

Quote
Yes

I haven’t seen him pitch live but having scouted pitching for colleges and a couple MLB teams I have to say that the video posted above is one of the most intriguing mix of power and deception I have seen in a long time.


Then in response to Sickels' glowing assessment of Gray:


Quote
You have to find a position player to knock him off the throne. Maybe not the slider of Strausburg in college but close. I think there are things here that if you had a draft with him and Strausburg you might actually think to take Gray. Size and frame is better; mechanics are not so screwed up timing wise as Strausburg’s; and I think you can make the arguement that he has a chance of having a better fastball when you consider movement.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 10:42:56 pm
One more thing. To elaborate on what I said earlier, Gray threw some terrific changes tonight. Some right down the middle, some that disappeared like Jason Bere's old Fosh pitches. Gray said in an interview that his changeup is nasty and he wasn't kidding. He just doesn't need it in college. He seemed to be experimenting by throwing a bunch of them in the early innings tonight.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 28, 2013, 11:17:59 pm
The entire Oklahoma game from Thursday can be seen here:

http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25807017


I'd like to get some other opinions on what they see; tell me if I'm lavishing too much praise on Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 29, 2013, 12:50:30 am
....If you look at the major league pitching leaders in 2012, of the 10 pitchers with the highest WAR for pitchers you have the following list, to which I have added how the player was acquired, and if by draft, then by the round when they were drafted:
1.   Verlander (DET)   7.4   1st round -- 2nd pick overall
2.   Price (TBR)           6.4   1st round 1st pick
3.   Kershaw (LAD)   6.3   1st round -- 7th pick overall
4.   Harrison (TEX)   6.2   Trade -- 3rd round
5.   Cueto (CIN)   5.8   Dominican signing
   Sale (CHW)   5.8   1st round -- 13th pick overall
7.   Dickey (NYM)   5.5   FA -- 1st round 18th pick overall
8.   Kuroda (NYY)   5.2   Trade -- FA from Japan
9.   Peavy (CHW)   5.0   Trade -- 15th round
10.   Hernandez (SEA)4.6   Venezualan FA

And the same for 2011:
WAR for Pitchers
1.   Halladay (PHI)   8.5   Trade 1st round -- 17th pick overall
2.   Verlander (DET)   8.3   1st round -- 2nd pick overall
   Lee (PHI)           8.3   FA -- 4th round
4.   Sabathia (NYY)   7.0    FA -- 1st round, 20th pick overall
5.   Weaver (LAA)   6.7   1st round -- 12th pick overall
6.   Kershaw (LAD)   6.3   1st round -- 7th pick overall
7.   Romero (TOR)   6.2   1st round -- 6th pick overall
   Hamels (PHI)   6.2   1st round -- 17th pick overall
9.   Beckett (BOS)   5.5   Trade -- 1st round 2nd pick
10.   Fister (2TM)   5.0   Trade -- 7th round

You know, after looking at the list, I know what the Theocracy has said, and I am sure that they sat down and carefully looked at things a decade or so ago when they came up with their approach... but I am starting to wonder if perhaps more careful use of young pitchers might have changed things more than a little, or perhaps simply better scouting.

On those two lists there are 23 pitcher positions on the lists (with a couple of pitchers appearing twice, but I am counting each position on the list separately), you have 3 of them who were foreign FA signings,leaving 20 positions on the lists, and of the 20, 23 of them, 65%, were initially 1st round draft picks, with 7 of the 20 being picked in one of the 1st 7 slots the year they were drafted.

From that, I don't know that you can really any longer argue that top pitchers may be as likely found at lower levels of the draft as they once were.

Appel is looking like a better draft pick to me than he was before I actually looked at who the top pitchers were each of the last two years and where they came from.

Thanks, jes.  Yes, we all know that pitchers get hurt and pitchers fail.  But your list demonstrates what we shouldn't be too sophisticated to remember:  that it's the norm, not the exception, for a drafted pitching star to have been drafted first round and often high first.  And even on that list, their are few non-first rounders and they often aren't in the same class as the super-aces.  (Doug Fister, for example, is not quite the same kind of reliable ace that Verlander, Sabbathia, Halladay, and Beckett have been over many seasons.  If you want a star pitcher, you're much more likely to get him with a top-10 pick than in the 3rd round. 

The Cubs will be in an interesting place to have at least one of Gray and Appel available.  Both seem like pretty good candidates.  If you're worst case is settling for one of them, you're not doing too badly.  If you're better case is to get a player who's even better, you're really in good luck. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 01:41:35 am
Gray's pitch total last night was 105.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on March 29, 2013, 01:58:02 am
One more thing. To elaborate on what I said earlier, Gray threw some terrific changes tonight. Some right down the middle, some that disappeared like Jason Bere's old Fosh pitches. Gray said in an interview that his changeup is nasty and he wasn't kidding. He just doesn't need it in college. He seemed to be experimenting by throwing a bunch of them in the early innings tonight.

If you get a chance to watch Strasburg pitch this season, focus on his change-up.  It is a devastating swing-and-miss pitch and is making him truly special right now.  The Fangraphs survey of that pitch in 2012 had something like a 43% contact rate on swings against his change-up, the lowest of any pitch thrown by a starting pitcher, I believe.  Incredible stuff.  When you have a power pitcher who also has a good curve and command---mastering a real good change-up puts that guy in another category.  If Gray is doing that, well, that's pretty special.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 03:05:12 am
Quote
If you get a chance to watch Strasburg pitch this season, focus on his change-up.

Oh I've seen Strasburg's 90 mph changeup. When I heard he was throwing it in the minors I figured people were mistaking a sinker. I certainly wouldn't put Gray's in that category but it looks like it's well above average and a strikeout pitch. It also seems to have more fade on it than Strasburg's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 03:36:16 am
Quote
“I’ve been in college baseball for 21 years and I haven’t seen a guy just, outing after outing, dominate like he has,” OU coach Sunny Golloway said. “I keep telling myself he’s not a professional, he’s an amateur pitcher and he’s gonna have some bumps in the road. Our job is to coach him up when he does. But he hasn’t had many bumps yet. He will, but he’s tough and he’ll be able to overcome it.”
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 04:25:59 am
Mark Appel also pitched Thursday tossing a 4-hit shutout against Washington State.

9-4-0-0-1-10 , 3 HB, 110 pitches


*

Overall:


Appel- 0.96 ERA, 47 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 64 K  .161 BAA

Gray-   1.34 ERA, 53-2/3 IP, 27 H, 9 BB, 63 K  .152 BAA
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 05:05:41 am
Dan Kirby's new mock draft goes more than 100 picks deep:

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2013-mlb-draft-4/30877/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 05:53:34 am
Perfect Game's Kendall Rogers:

Quote
Spoke with someone at Appel's outing tonight. The @StanfordBSB RHP was 97 throughout the game w/ plus SL and CH
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 29, 2013, 08:34:15 am
It seems to me that you need to be able to project the degree to which a college starter will be able to adjust to ML hitters and to probably losing a few MPH off his fastball as he matures.  I'd definitely factor in the quality of the college opposition and the "cerebral" factor (situational ptiching, keeping hitters off balance, moving the ball around effectively, etc.).  I don't know whether these factors separate Gray and Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2013, 08:40:50 am
Many of the summer wooden bat league coaches are ex-major leaguers or college coaches who marvel at how the wood vs. aluminum bats change the game at the point of impact.  It actually changes more for the pitchers who tend to pitch away from contact in college and to contact in the summer leagues.  It's a huge adjustment.  I'd be interested in finding out if Gray or Appel played summer ball somewhere in one of the wooden bat leagues that are popping up all over the place, and how they did.  In some cases, like Gray's, it may explain some of his dramatic development.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2013, 08:41:59 am
My post was to provide additional fodder to P2's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on March 29, 2013, 08:49:33 am
Overall:

Appel- 0.96 ERA, 47 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 64 K  .161 BAA

Gray-   1.34 ERA, 53-2/3 IP, 27 H, 9 BB, 63 K  .152 BAA

The descriptions of Gray certainly do make him look attractive.  The comparison between Gray and Appel is interesting - first how generally similar they are, other than ERA, where  Appel is better.

Appel used to be the guy getting all the attention, but now Gray seems to be dominating the reports, here anyway.  Are there descriptions of Appel that parallel the wow-factor reports on Gray?

It will be interesting to see what the Cubs do, but I certainly trust their judgment. They will have tons more information, including direct observation than anyone here or any of the commentators. And they know what they are doing.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on March 29, 2013, 09:04:49 am
Seems like both guys are very good, very fast, very well controlled, and each has a reasonable 3-pitch repertoire. 

Seems like a win-win-win choice, since we draft #2, not #1.  If the Cubs have a choice at both of them, the Cub scouts can evaluate, and that's great.  Win.  If Houston makes that choice, the "lesser" guy still looks pretty nice.  Win.  And if there's a position guy who looks like an even better choice, all the better, win again. 


I think this whole situation is a reminder of how, even though the team was struggling vigorously to lose less than 100 games, it is a nice perk to get a really high pick like this.  If we were picking 4th or 5th, we'd still get a really good prospect.  But you're not in quite so strong a "win-win-win" win-big situation. 


Of course, Jeff will understand why it's going to be a "lose".  Whichever guy we end up with will probably be the pitcher who gets hurt, or the HS outfielder who ends up struggling with big breaking balls. 




Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 29, 2013, 09:09:20 am
My post was to provide additional fodder to P2's.

Was your fodder a mudder?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on March 29, 2013, 09:12:32 am
I feel like these 2 articles are definitely relevant to the discussion about when and how to draft an ace pitcher.  The first article is where in the draft can you find an ace.  The only guy that qualified as an ace using their criteria that wasn't drafted in the first round is Cliff Lee.  The second article is College versus High school.  Looking at that first article, though, if you want an ace, might as well take the guy you have rated higher between Appel and Gray because you aren't finding one later.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/drawing-an-ace/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/drawing-an-ace-part-2-starting-at-the-beginning/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on March 29, 2013, 09:45:12 am
My tummy gets into a twist, because I just KNOW that no matter which guy we take, it will be the wrong guy.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 29, 2013, 09:45:50 am
It is beginning to look like Appel/Gray will go 1 and 2 in the draft.  If this is the case, I suspect that the Astros will go for the one they think will be cheapest.  I assume that will be Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 29, 2013, 09:47:01 am
I'll be very surprised if the Astros don't take either Frazier or Meadows with the #1 pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 29, 2013, 10:23:17 am
If that is the case, I would expect the Cubs to select the cheapest of the two pitchers, which would probably be Gray.  There is still a lot of time before the draft, but at this point there doesn't seem to be a substantial difference between the two, so they might as well save some money to be used as overslot in later rounds.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 29, 2013, 10:53:30 am
If that is the case, I would expect the Cubs to select the cheapest of the two pitchers, which would probably be Gray.  There is still a lot of time before the draft, but at this point there doesn't seem to be a substantial difference between the two, so they might as well save some money to be used as overslot in later rounds.

If Gray and Appel are close, and one is a Boras client and the other is not.... I hope they draft the one who has no connection to Boras.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 29, 2013, 11:25:41 am
Penny wise, pound foolish.  Pick the guy based on your scouting.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on March 29, 2013, 11:49:07 am
Chris27, thanks for the Kirby mock draft. I like the idea of the Cubs taking 3 power arms and a catcher in the first 4 rounds. The needs are just so great throughout the organization for those kinds of players. Am intrigued by the big catcher from Javy Baez's old high school (Navarette). 

And thanks to the list Jes posted, and the link from Ray (I think), am much more comfortable with one of the top college arms with the #2 overall. One of those guys would be the Cubs #1 pitching prospect immediately. Where one of the h.s. bats would not supplant any of Soler/Baez or even Almora as #1 position prospect in the system.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 29, 2013, 12:03:27 pm
Penny wise, pound foolish.  Pick the guy based on your scouting.

What I was saying was that if the scouting shows them to be close to equal, go with the cheapest one.  And I agree that that would likely be the non-Boras client.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on March 29, 2013, 12:11:17 pm
I'll restate my point, Dave.  Cost should be a very, very small factor in the decision.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on March 29, 2013, 02:32:08 pm
I agree that the best prospect should almost always be chosen, regardless of cost or position.

However cost does play a part in the decisions.

If the Cubs felt that Appel was the best player available when they picked last year, would we have been better off with Appel, or with Almora, Johnson, Underwood, Blackburn, etc?

Seriously, I don't know the answer to that.  I am not sure what I would do if faced with that situation.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 29, 2013, 02:52:49 pm
it's the norm, not the exception, for a drafted pitching star to have been drafted first round and often high first.  And even on that list, their are few non-first rounders and they often aren't in the same class as the super-aces.

Appel and Gray 1-2 is fine, but history is what it is.  50-50 for TJ or worse, no matter what their mechanics look like now.  That's why the bias towards hitters is, in general terms, a sign that this administration really gets it.

I just don't know that is the case anymore, and would love to see are look at how often top pitching prospects drafted in the last few years have broken down in the first 3-4 years (which would seem to be the highest risk period) compared to ten years ago or more.

We already know that even when a young pitcher ends up needing TJ surgery, there is a good chance that he will return at something close to his prior performance level, but my question is whether more careful handling of highly prized young arms today, better training and instruction to get them to use safer pitching techniques, and more aggressive early measures if any problem is seen might have changed things and might have made top young arms better bets today than they were 10 years ago or longer.

With very limited look, here is what I have found.

In 2008, there were only 3 pitchers drafted in the 1st 15 picks of the draft: Brian Matusz; Aaron Crow; Ethan Martin.  Martin has thrown 100 or more innings each season since, and would appear to have had no injury problems.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin001eth  Crow didn't sign in 2008, was redrafted in 2009 with the 12th pick, and while he may have fallen short of expectations, I can't find anything about him having been injured.  Matusz has suffered a few injuries, but apparently not the kind of elbow or shoulder problems which cripple a career.

In 2009, there were 11 pitchers taken with the 1st 15 picks: Strassburg has had some problems, including need TJ surgery, but appears to have fully recovered.  Matthew Hobgood had rotator cuff surgery in 2012; Zack Wheeler pitched almost 150 innings last year, finished strongly in AAA and appears never to have had arm problems; Mike Minor is entering his 4th year in the majors, with more than 110 innings each year since signing and no sign of real arm trouble; Mike Leake is now in the majors, has thrown 120 or more innings each year and appears to have had no real problems; Jacob Turner is enterng his 3rd year in the majors now, has thrown more than 115 innings each year and does not appear to have had any arm problems; Drew Storen is now entering his 4th year in the majors, is relieving, but missed a good part of last year with elbow problems; Tyler Matzek is still in the minors and has been far less than impressive, but appears not to have had arm problems, just control problems; Aaron Crow was addressed in the 2008 draft; Matt Purke failed to sign in 2009 (out of HS) but did sign when redrafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft.... and did poorly in A ball when he started as a pro last year (he may have had arm problems in college); Alex White was in AAA last year and appears to have had arm problems after his 2010 season when he threw 150 innings at age 21, then only 40 in 2011.

There ARE still highly regarded pitchers there who are having arm problems and likely flaming out... but it does not appear to be as often as in the past, and in the case of Alex White the 150 innings at age 21 almost begged for trouble.

Things may have changed.

I think this whole situation is a reminder of how, even though the team was struggling vigorously to lose less than 100 games, it is a nice perk to get a really high pick like this.  If we were picking 4th or 5th, we'd still get a really good prospect.  But you're not in quite so strong a "win-win-win" win-big situation. 

This is one more reason why it would be foolish for the Cubs to become a buyer instead of a seller in July if the team gets lucky and over-performs for a couple of months, bringing very marginal improvement in weak chances for a marginal team to squeak into the playoffs, and in the process seriously reducing the chance of getting draft pick in 2014 which could help build the team which the Theocracy could make into a dominant force for several years.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on March 29, 2013, 03:06:48 pm
Penny wise, pound foolish.  Pick the guy based on your scouting.

Scouting includes more than their baseball performance.  It includes their personal makeup, and using Boras says something about that.  It also indicates how quickly, or slowly, a prospect might be expected to sign.  And if a first round draft pick holds out for more than slot, and reduces funds available for lower picks, and slows down the entire process of signing other picks, that is a real concern.

But beyond all of that, by comment was simply on who *I* personally hope the Cubs sign.  I don't like Boras, and I would like the Cubs to have less involvement with him than more.  And do not that I began my comment with, "If Gray and Appel are close."  If they are NOT close, take the better prospect.  Period.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 05:15:33 pm
Jonathan Gray's previous two starts prior to last night:


Vs TCU:

http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25788755&topic_id=40570782&c_id=soonersports


Vs Northwestern St:

http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=25683877&topic_id=40447224&c_id=soonersports
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on March 29, 2013, 06:56:06 pm
Sean Manaea's Friday outing:

7-1/3 -6-3-2-3-5
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on March 29, 2013, 07:43:01 pm
It seems pretty safe to assume Manaea is out of the mix at #2, unless Gray or Appel goes down with a major injury.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on March 29, 2013, 10:41:02 pm
It's possible that the Cubs passed on Appel last year because of his bonus demands.  This year, he doesn't have the leverage of going back to Stanford.  Gray has that leverage this time around.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on April 01, 2013, 12:22:03 pm
From ESPN draft blog today:

• Once again, both Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray were outstanding in their starts, with each going on Thursday because of the holiday. Appel shut out a solid Washington State lineup, going the distance for the third time in six games with 10 strikeouts and just one walk. The Stanford right-hander did hit three batters, but gave up only four hits and threw just 110 pitches.

Gray faced a Kansas club that wasn't close to as good as the Cougar lineup Appel faced -- and that's putting it nicely -- but once again, the Sooner right-hander was close to unhittable. Gray gave up one run and two hits in his nine innings, with one walk and 12 strikeouts in a tidy 105 pitches against the Jayhawks.

Last week, the scout I talked to considered Appel to be the best player in the draft. This week, I got a different response.

"I like Appel, but at this point, Gray would be (first) on my board," an AL scout said. "I'll take the triple-digit fastball and the wipeout slider any day of the week. There have been times that I've heard Mark was just a little too fastball heavy without elite command. I don't hear that about Gray very often, I think he's going to be a star."

This is one of the first reports I've heard of a scout preferring Gray to Appel, but don't be surprised if this battle tightens as we get closer to June.

• While Gray and Appel continue to rise up draft boards, Sean Manaea continues to slip. The Indiana State left-hander was less than dominant in his start Friday against Missouri State, giving up three runs (two earned) in his 7 1/3 innings, giving up six hits and three walks, and striking out just five. The Sycamore's defense has let him down all year, but the southpaw hasn't looked like a potential top-five pick for most of the 2013 season.

• .......Kris Bryant continues to dominate. The San Diego third baseman was solid once again this weekend against Oregon State, picking up two more extra-base hits. Bryant now has a cartoonish line of .370/.533/.900 over the year, and any debate on who the best collegiate hitter in the class has been put to bed.



Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 02, 2013, 06:17:17 pm
Law has an Insider piece on Frazier. I hate to keep asking but, would anyone like to post it?


http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9125153/clint-frazier-shows-top-10-talent-their-questions-projection-mlb
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 02, 2013, 07:08:04 pm
Outfielder Clint Frazier of Loganville (Ga.) HS is one of the top two prep bats in this class, playing a few towns and just one county over from the other top high school hitter, Grayson's Austin Meadows. Frazier went deep in his first two at-bats Monday night, including a homer on the first pitch he saw, both no-doubters off the bat, showing the positives that should make him a top-10 pick but also the concerns that might keep him out of the top five.

Frazier has some of the best pure bat speed I have ever seen on an amateur player, and he controls the bat head well too -- it's not a wild, undisciplined hack but a repeatable swing with good form and balance throughout. He doesn't knock himself over or collapse his back side; he just has very, very quick hands and a fundamentally sound swing. That bat speed means hard contact which, given the hip rotation and loft in his finish, means plus power too, particularly to pull. If he gets a fastball up, or a hanging breaking ball, he destroys it, doing so twice in Monday night's game before he popped up in his third and final at-bat.



Keith Law/ESPN
Frazier still has trouble recognizing off-speed stuff.
What Frazier showed he didn't like much was breaking stuff, even the mediocre kind. He was looking for fastballs and looking up in the zone, so when pitchers changed speeds on him and threw some fringy facsimiles of curveballs, Frazier would end up way out in front. As you can see in the image to the right, Frazier's bat is already through the zone while the ball hasn't even reached the plate yet. He is young enough to develop that pitch recognition, and the tremendous bat speed gives him an advantage long-term, but I don't think his present hit tool is all that high even with the lightning-quick bat.

On defense, Frazier profiles as a corner outfielder, with adequate range in center for the high school level or perhaps a college team, but not for pro ball. His arm was plus before a bout of tendinitis in the fall and is now just average, good enough for right field but with the hope that it can get back to where it was a year or so ago. High school outfielders who project as corner guys aren't usually single-digit draft picks -- Delmon Young is the only one to go first overall since Shawn Abner in 1984 -- but I do think Frazier's present power and future hit tools are enough to justify it.

Frazier's other question mark is his lack of projection. At about 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, Frazier already has a big leaguer's physique, which is great but doesn't allow scouts or teams to dream on future growth. In other words, he doesn't project to add strength or power as he adds muscle to his frame, because he's unlikely to get much bigger. There's room for growth in his game, such as recognizing off-speed pitches sooner, but he won't get it from the physical side.

I'll see Meadows at home on Wednesday for another head-to-head comparison. After last summer, I had Meadows rated over Frazier, based on the higher upside, even though Frazier had better present skills. I'll re-evaluate that position after seeing them both in the span of about 50 hours.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 02, 2013, 07:29:09 pm
I haven't paid for my espn insider in like 5 years.  I've wondered many times what the deal was.  Finally got an email the other day saying payment was due because my year was up.  Since I havent had the bank account used on file there in many years, I can't help but wonder if someone else has been paying for my insider.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: PRCubFan on April 02, 2013, 07:51:53 pm
Hopefully Almora is a stud, but I can't help but wonder how much better the Cubs could have been maybe as soon as next season if they had drafted Appel last year and then been able to pick up Gray this year.  Add them to Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Garza if he was ever to remain healthy and signed a long term deal, and a guy like Arodys Vizcaino and all of a sudden, the Cubs have some very enticing power arms in that rotation. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: brjones on April 02, 2013, 08:12:07 pm
I haven't paid for my espn insider in like 5 years.  I've wondered many times what the deal was.  Finally got an email the other day saying payment was due because my year was up.  Since I havent had the bank account used on file there in many years, I can't help but wonder if someone else has been paying for my insider.

I think they just have poor record keeping there, because I haven't paid in years either.  I got a "free trial" about 10 years ago.  After the trial ran out, I paid for the first year, then never again.  The credit card I used to get my subscription was cancelled years ago.  But I still get Insider, and I even get ESPN Magazine for free.  I never read it and would like to cancel it because it goes straight to the trash every month...but I don't want to risk losing my free insider.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on April 02, 2013, 08:30:43 pm
I think they just have poor record keeping there, because I haven't paid in years either.  I got a "free trial" about 10 years ago.  After the trial ran out, I paid for the first year, then never again.  The credit card I used to get my subscription was cancelled years ago.  But I still get Insider, and I even get ESPN Magazine for free.  I never read it and would like to cancel it because it goes straight to the trash every month...but I don't want to risk losing my free insider.

Most periodicals and newspapers don't make money on subscriptions but advertisements.  I know guys who get the New York Times for free because subscription numbers mean more to sell advertisements than the subscription itself is worth.  I told the guys at ESPN I didn't want the magazine anymore.  I asked if there was a price for just getting Insider info without getting the magazine.  Nope.  But they wouldn't send me the magazine anymore; I could take the internet version.  I had to take one or the other.  Why?  Numbers.  They have to have numbers to show potential advertisers.

My wife has been tossing the TV Guide renewals in the trash for years.  Yes, we still get TV Guide.  For almost every magazine you almost have to demand they cancel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 02, 2013, 08:31:58 pm
Thanks for the content Ray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 03:03:00 pm
PG's Patrick Ebert:


Quote
I touched upon Jonathan Gray last week, and had the good fortune to watch last weekend's start as well. This time it was against Kansas, and the guy is just filthy. He went the full 9 innings, gave up 2 hits, one was a soft flare to RF, the other was on an infield single to the SS that could have been an out if played better (allowing the runner to go from first to third on the play, which should never happen). That runner scored on a DP ball to the next hitter.

He has great fastball velocity (mid to upper 90s) and command, and his mid-80s slider is probably his best pitch. It's really hard to identify out of the hand and breaks late, hard and away from RH batters. His low-80s changeup is also a very nice pitch that he uses perfectly to neutralize LH hitters. He has great temp on the mound, keeps his composure and really is the completely package you look for in a future staff ace.

I was actually talking to Kendall Rogers about this earlier today, but it is somewhat surprisingly that he hasn't gotten more pub early this season. He is a legitimate factor for the Astros and the No. 1 overall pick. While Appel has been dominant again this year and Manaea also offers the projected total package of a staff ace, Jonathan Gray is doing it week after week, and the weather has been rather cool this spring.


http://www.perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=10108&MessageID=21037#post21037
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 03:08:33 pm
Callis' Wednesday chat:


Quote
Frank (Chicago): Between Clint Frazier and Javier Baez, who has better bat speed and overall plate discipline?

Jim Callis: They have similar bat speed, which is to say a ton of it. Frazier hasn’t faced pro pitching, so plate discipline is a tough call, but Baez is so aggressive at the plate that I’d expect Frazier is ahead of him in that regard.



Quote
@Jaypers413 (IL): Could you see the Cubs taking RHP Jon Gray if the Astros pop Appel at 1-1?

Jim Callis: I could. If the draft were today, I’d expect Appel and Gray to go 1-2 or 2-1.



Quote
Luke (Indiana): If the draft was tomorrow, who are your top three picks, in order?

Jim Callis: Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, Georgia high school OF Austin Meadows. I actually wrote my column for our last magazine issue on who I’d take with each of the first 10 picks, and that will post with our updated Draft Top 50 Prospects tomorrow. I wrote that column about 10 days ago, and I’ve shuffled my choices since then.



Quote
Peter (Brooklyn): Seems like Sean Manaea's stock has fallen in a lot of mock drafts. Do you chalk up his less than totally dominant start, both production and stuff-wise, to the weather? Something else?

Jim Callis: I think he has fallen a little bit, though I still think he’d go in the top 5-10 picks if the draft were today. The weather up here–I live outside of Chicago–has been bitterly cold for most of the year, but I think the inconsistency of his secondary pitches and his command. His numbers aren’t bad at all (1.14 ERA, 46-13 K-BB in 39 IP) but he hasn’t shown scouts everything they’ve hoped for.



Quote
Joel (KCK): Is there any chance that Jonathan Gray has put himself on Houston's short list for the #1 pick?

Jim Callis: Not sure how short that list is yet, but yes, Gray is definitely a candidate.



Quote
Jordan (Chicago): Who do you think the Cubs will grab at No. 2? Also have you heard anything of the progress of Barret Loux and his upside? Seems kind of quiet regarding the No. 6 pick in the draft...

Jim Callis: Almost assuredly a college pitcher at No. 2, Appel or Gray. Loux is more of a high-floor than a high-ceiling guy. He can pitch but his stuff is average, so he’s probably a No. 4 starter at best.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/prospects-and-draft-chat-with-jim-callis/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 03:21:27 pm
Another Law Insider piece, this time on Austin Meadows:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9134126/austin-meadows-shows-tools-stick-center-field-top-five-pick-mlb-draft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 03:25:49 pm
This is from Kiley McDaniel who works for Fox Sports and writes a lot of columns for ESPN.



Quote
From talking to some of the double-digits of scouting directors that were in Cary for the NHSI tournament, it’s looking like the top of the draft is starting to reach consensus. Right now, I’ve got the top group of talent being a top 5, containing Stanford righty Mark Appel, Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray, Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea, Georgia prep outfielder Clint Frazier and San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.

Some will be surprised to hear Frazier’s fellow Atlanta-area prep outfielder Meadows not in that group. I go into detail on this topic on this week’s podcast and in two NHSI wrapup pieces. The short version is that Meadows is slowly going from a toolsy center fielder with great tools to a guy that might end up a left fielder and isn’t hitting quite as much as his tools would suggest, while also by no means performing terribly. The vagueness of that is intentional as I could absolutely see Meadows still going in the top 5 and I’m sure there’s a couple teams that still have him there.

All that said, the point of the rankings is to jive my evaluations (where applicable) with those of the industry to reflect larger trends and the industry as a whole has Meadows a notch behind Frazier as a prospect right now, saying nothing of individual teams. Right now, it sounds like Appel is the consensus top prospect and Gray seems to be the most common choice for second best but Manaea, Bryant and Frazier all have cases to be made for the #2 spot.


Much more in the link.

http://mississippi.scout.com/2/1281029.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 05:57:25 pm
Epstein and other Cubs reps apparently watched Clint Frazier on Wednesday when he went 3-3 with a triple, RBI, and stolen base.

Minutes ago Frazier hit his 10th homer of the year. BA's Connor Glassey is in attendance and reports Frazier hit 19 homers in BP. In response to a couple tweets Glassey says Frazier currently has more power than Meadows and will in the future as well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: bitterman on April 05, 2013, 06:38:30 pm
I doubt Houston will pick Appel given his agent and likely contract demand...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 07:11:51 pm
RH batters hitting .159 against Jonathan Gray. LH's hitting .139.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 07:17:17 pm
Gray's fighting his command tonite though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: bitterman on April 05, 2013, 08:00:09 pm
Also won't be surprised if cubs pass on appel, too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 08:49:27 pm
Texas really battled Gray who had command issues all night. Gray almost assuredly had more 3-ball counts than in his last three starts combined. He walked consecutive hitters in the 6th to load the bases before getting a K and a groundout to get out of it. He gave up seven hits, all singles, and was pulled with runners at 2nd and 3rd in the 7th. Despite all that, Texas only scored one unearned run off him on a passed ball and wild pitch.


6-2/3 -7-1-0-2-8
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 09:01:59 pm
Sean Manaea misses his start with a hip muscle injury.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 09:03:27 pm
DanMKirby : Clint Frazier 2-for-3 w/ HR, SB. Now hitting .561 (32-for-57) over 18 G w/ 3 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 13 SB, .638 OBP/1.246 SLG
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 05, 2013, 11:06:54 pm
Mark Appel almost went the distance against USC, being removed after his first walk of the game with two out in the 9th.

8-2/3 -7-2-2-1-7

.

Overall on the year:


Appel: 5-2, 1.13 ERA, 55-2/3 IP, 34 H, 9 BB, 71 K

Gray: 6-1, 1.19 ERA, 60-1/3 IP, 34 H, 11 BB, 71 K
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 06, 2013, 12:35:00 am
Epstein watched Appel's outing according to BA's Aaron Fitt.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 06, 2013, 04:08:54 am
Appel threw 114 pitches, Gray 116.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on April 06, 2013, 10:09:40 am
John Arguello of Cubs Den with lots of stuff on Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and others.  Also a 4:11 Appel video from Friday night.  It had to be tough hitting in those shadows.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/04/mlb-draft-update-theo-watches-appel-battle-scouting-report-on-jonathan-gray/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 07, 2013, 03:21:36 am
Quote
There’s a sense that the Cubs will come away with one of the frontline college pitchers – Appel, Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray or Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea. Hoyer confirmed that the Cubs feel there are multiple pitchers with high enough ceilings to justify the No. 2 slot.

....


“We’ve been really open about the fact that we need a lot more pitching in the organization, whether that comes at the second pick or not,” Hoyer said Saturday at Turner Field. “We’re really very open to taking a hitter at No. 2. But I think it’s a safe bet we’re going to pound away at pitching throughout the draft, like we did last year.”

....

During the upcoming 10-game homestand at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will run their midpoint meetings in Chicago and set the agenda for the rest of the spring scouting season. They are looking at around six possible players for their top pick and will have to figure out how to divide their $10.6 million bonus pool.

“We’ll really sit down at that point and make sure that our group (for) No. 2 is inclusive,” Hoyer said. “(We’ll) make sure there’s no one else we should be considering. And then at that point, we’ll really focus on getting all the information we need on those guys.”


http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/hoyer-sees-no-2-pick-coming-focus-cubs
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 07, 2013, 07:16:19 am
“We’ll really sit down at that point and make sure that our group (for) No. 2 is inclusive,” Hoyer said. “(We’ll) make sure there’s no one else we should be considering. And then at that point, we’ll really focus on getting all the information we need on those guys.”

Lots easier at #2 than at #16.  The separation between the top group and the second group should be greater, enough so that they really can trim that pool to six, and exhaustively evaluate them.  At 16, you don't know which guy in your preliminary top 15 is going to slip, so you've got to spend a lot more time on guys likely to be gone.  And the separation between guys around 15/16 and 25 is probably pretty slender.  So I'd guess you'd need to diversify your evaluation attention to a much greater degree. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 07, 2013, 09:15:02 am
Quote
“We’ve been really open about the fact that we need a lot more pitching in the organization, whether that comes at the second pick or not,” Hoyer said Saturday at Turner Field. “We’re really very open to taking a hitter at No. 2. But I think it’s a safe bet we’re going to pound away at pitching throughout the draft, like we did last year.”

I would not be surprised to see the Cubs pass on both Gray and Appel, instead using the 2nd pick to take someone they are confident will sign for well below slot and then to use the leftover funds from that below slot signing to sign a number of players in lower rounds for above slot.

All draft picks are lottery tickets.  Taking Gray or Appel would be an expensive ticket, with a good prospect of a high payout.  PASSING on Gray or Appel would allow them to sign from later in the draft a number of lottery tickets with higher returns than they might have signed with those picks otherwise.  Presumably a number of picks in that approach would be HS players who could only be persuaded to pass on college if they get a larger signing bonus than the slotting structure would allow.

This approach might also be an effective way for them to leverage a greater return from the pitching coach they hired from Vanderbilt, Derek Johnson.  Not to minimize the guy at all, but Johnson's primary experience for years was in working with 18-22 year old arms, and he has a proven track record of doing a super job with them.  Hopefully that will also translate into the handling (and supervision of the handling) of arms a year, two years or three years older than that, but that does remain to be seen.

Since Johnson's ability to handle the 18-22 year old arms is unquestioned, that might mean a marginal advantage to drafting HS and junior college arms over drafting college juniors and seniors.

I am not necessarily predicting such an approach, but merely saying it should not be surprising... even if it might result in some criticizing it as a McPhail "spread it around" approach.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on April 07, 2013, 09:52:18 am
That is pretty much the tack that the Astros used last year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on April 07, 2013, 01:46:47 pm
Whether or not the Astros' spread-it-around approach from last year makes sense for the Cubs this year will depend on who the Astros select, the Cubs' assigned value for the five remaining top six candidates and their bonus demands. Obviously, if the remaining candidates are all rated equally, they should draft the cheapest one. But that won't happen, and both the assigned values and the expected asking prices are estimates. It's a crap shoot either way.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 07, 2013, 02:33:15 pm
Whether or not the Astros' spread-it-around approach from last year makes sense for the Cubs this year will depend on who the Astros select, the Cubs' assigned value for the five remaining top six candidates and their bonus demands. Obviously, if the remaining candidates are all rated equally, they should draft the cheapest one. But that won't happen, and both the assigned values and the expected asking prices are estimates. It's a crap shoot either way.

Cubsin, it is not just the value the Cubs see in the prospects available to take with the 2nd pick, but also the value they see in other college juniors, or those finishing junior college who could sign, or those just finishing HS who might sign, but only with a much sweeter offer than slotted in the lower rounds where their talent might put them.

If the Cubs have the option of signing Appel or Gray and having nothing left over to sign anyone above slot in lower rounds, or instead signing Frazier (or some other decent but much lesser prospect) for much less than it would take for Appel or Gray and then signing 15 HS arms who have perhaps 3rd round talent/development levels, signing each well above what they might expect in the 4th-20th rounds where they are taken, the Cubs might well be better off taking the load of HS arms.

With the new signing limits, the first round draft pick becomes not just a matter of scouting and evaluating talent, but also of weighing the opportunity cost of not signing the younger prospects who would be willing to sign out of high school, but only for something more than the slotting structure would get them where they are drafted.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Robb on April 07, 2013, 02:55:32 pm
I think the spread it around approach doesn't jive with Theo's philosophy of finding impact talent.  Historically the chance of finding true impact talent dwindles outside the top end of the draft.  In a top heavy draft the chance to add a true top level piece to the puzzle should be too much to pass up.  I hope he just takes the best available and doesn't try to outsmart everyone.  The last out smart everyone experiment was named Hayden Simpson.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 07, 2013, 03:05:42 pm
I think the spread it around approach doesn't jive with Theo's philosophy of finding impact talent.  Historically the chance of finding true impact talent dwindles outside the top end of the draft.  In a top heavy draft the chance to add a true top level piece to the puzzle should be too much to pass up.  I hope he just takes the best available and doesn't try to outsmart everyone.  The last out smart everyone experiment was named Hayden Simpson.

Agree...plus, you're not going to find an ace outside of the first round.  The only one in last ten years by using fangraphs(they own hardball times) definition was Cliff Lee.  They I'm hoping Samardzija becomes a second.  Posted the article a while back.  I prefer impact talent at this point.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 07, 2013, 03:53:02 pm
I think the spread it around approach doesn't jive with Theo's philosophy of finding impact talent.  Historically the chance of finding true impact talent dwindles outside the top end of the draft.  In a top heavy draft the chance to add a true top level piece to the puzzle should be too much to pass up.

It's not as if there would be a need to pass on a first round draft choice in order to have money available for well above slot signing's later.

If they went with Frazier (or whomever they might rank as 4th or 5th best in the draft) the difference between what it would cost to sign him and what it might take to sign Gray or Appel might well be enough to sign several lower round HS picks.

I am not saying the Cubs should do this, but merely that the issue of opportunity cost has to be considered, and that because of that it would not particularly surprise me if they did, nor should such an approach be considered trying to outsmart anyone.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 08, 2013, 02:52:30 am
Sean Manaea's Sunday outing: 6-5-0-0-0-9

Overall: 0.99 ERA, 45-1/3 IP, 28 H, 13 BB, 55 K
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 08, 2013, 04:00:12 am
Sean Manaea's Sunday outing: 6-5-0-0-0-9

Overall: 0.99 ERA, 45-1/3 IP, 28 H, 13 BB, 55 K

With those numbers it's easy to see why his stock has plummeted...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: chgojhawk on April 08, 2013, 08:00:08 am
With those numbers it's easy to see why his stock has plummeted...

Obviously that was tongue in cheek, but I do see why Appel and Gray are moving ahead (staying ahead).  Reports are that Manaea's command isn't all that great at this stage.  Appel and Gray seem to have that in check.  Appel and Gray also throw harder and allegedly have better secondary pitches than Manaea.  In Manaea's favor is that he is a lefthander.

The stats for all 3 pitchers are pretty special.  The are pretty close in ERA, hits allowed per inning and Ks/inning but the order is Gray, Appel and Manaea for each category.  The BB/9 is where Manaea drops back a bit.  I would also note that Manaea is facing lesser competition than Appel and Gray.

He seems like a fantastic prospect but I would prefer to see the Cubs select Appel or Gray with the #2 pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on April 08, 2013, 09:00:36 am
Quote from: Phil Rogers
Sean Manaea, the Indiana State lefty who is a candidate for the first pick overall in the draft, survived a scary weekend. He had to be bumped from a scheduled Friday start because of an injury that was termed a strained hip but bounced back to throw six strong innings Sunday. Manaea had nine strikeouts and no walks in getting the win over Wichita State. The biggest thing was he was right back on the mound, which didn’t give teams long to wonder about his health.

Stanford’s Mark Appel remains the best pitcher in the draft. He blew USC away on Friday night, and is 5-2 with a 1.13 ERA and growing reputation for pounding the strike zone (73 strikes in 108 pitches against USC). He has 71 strikeouts and nine walks in 55 2-3 innings. The Cubs, who pick after the Astros in the June draft, are expected to take one of the two pitchers although they are also carefully scouting Oklahoma University right-hander Jonathan Gray and Georgia high school outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on April 08, 2013, 12:32:16 pm
I think Manaea has suffered from missing an outing or two due to some bad weather.  That might also explain his less than perfect command.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 08, 2013, 03:22:32 pm
I think Phil's a bit out of it if he thinks it's more likely the Cubs would take Manaea than Gray at this point.


Quote
I think Manaea has suffered from missing an outing or two due to some bad weather.


Manaea missed one start for weather reasons but that shouldn't matter. Appel also had two weeks between starts due to the Cardinal schedule.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on April 08, 2013, 07:57:55 pm
Maneae velocity is also down from the cape and his secondary pitches haven't been as sharp.  As much as I like the Missouri Valley the competition isn't anywhere close to the Pac 12 or Big 12.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 09, 2013, 03:48:08 am
Quote
The more I talk to scouts, the more I’m told that college righthanders Mark Appel (Stanford) and Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) are establishing themselves as the top two prospects in this draft. A lot can happen in the eight weeks between today and when the draft begins, but talent evaluators say Appel and Gray have separated from the rest of the pack.

Aaron Fitt was on hand for Appel’s Friday start at Southern California, and though Appel didn’t have his best stuff, he still pitched into the ninth inning and earned a 4-2 victory. He’s now 5-2, 1.13 after seven starts, with a 71-9 K-BB ratio and .170 opponent average in 56 innings.

Gray also survived despite being in less than peak form on Friday, when he surrendered a season-high seven hits at Texas. He still managed to get 20 outs while giving up just one unearned run, topping out at 98 mph with his fastball and relying heavily on his slider. Though eight starts, he’s 6-1, 1.19 with a 71-11 K-BB ratio and a .167 opponent average in 60 innings.


http://ht.ly/jSl79
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 09, 2013, 09:22:06 pm
We have talked a fair bit here on what is required for a team to get a true ace pitcher, and more than once reference has been mad to the Hardball Times look at the question: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/drawing-an-ace/

I only got around to looking at it now, and am glad I have because it is now much easier to dismiss the conclusions the author reached and.

The author essentially argues that true ace pitchers are taken early in a draft, and that the chance of them being found later in a draft is so remote as to really not be worth discussing.

Let me simply quote a portion of the piece: 
An ace has to be dominant. In most cases, that means multiple 200+ strikeout seasons. This criterion bumped Matt Cain off the list, as much as that pains me as a San Francisco native: The workhorse for the defending World Series champions doesn’t have a 200-K season to his name. Jered Weaver has only one, his 2010 campaign in which his 233 strikeouts were the best in baseball, but he followed that up with 198 strikeouts in 2011 so I’m going to give him a pass.

Obviously this is all very subjective,....  or maybe Zack Greinke isn’t really an ace in your opinion, but it’s my article and that means I get to do what I want.


By his criteria Greg Maddux, who only once broke 200 K's (and that was with only 204), would not be an ace.  Nor would Tom Glavine, who never had a single 200 K season.

It is not just that the list is subjective, but when he is working with objective criteria, the criteria are foolish.

It is simply hard to give any weight to a discussion of what qualifies as an ace pitcher, or how you might find one, when the criteria used leave off off a pitcher with 3 Cy Youngs, 355 career wins and 7 different seasons with an ERA+ better than 160, or when the criteria would exclude another pitcher with 2 Cy Youngs, four other seasons finishing either 2nd or 3rd in the Cy Young balloting, and who led the league in wins 5 times.

Sorry, but no one using criteria which would exclude those pitchers from a discussion about ace pitchers should be taken seriously in that discussion.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 09, 2013, 10:07:24 pm
The active guys ommited were still first round picks though. Cain at 1.25.  And if I remember right, he gets by with an above average number of pop ups, which helps him be an ace without all the k's.  Not something easy to predict.  Greinke was taken at 1.6.  And Jered Weaver was taken at 1.12.  You can argue that guys taken in the 1980's mean we can get an ace later if you want, but, it my opinion, scouting has come a long way since then and even Glavine and Maddux were taken in the second.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 10, 2013, 05:42:20 am
Ray, I am not looking at his analysis of where guys were picked.  I already did a bit of my own with two posts here.  I am simply pointing out that when his criteria would exclude two pitchers, both of whom retired only fairly recently, and both of whom were unquestionably aces, then his criteria is beyond suspect and moves right into the worthless category.  And if his criteria for picking aces is worthless, then his entire analysis has fallen into the land of GIGO -- garbage in, garbage out.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 10, 2013, 05:19:04 pm
Local article on Jonathan Gray:

http://www.oklahoman.com/article/3781662?access=54c2aeedfaa8aa6c9bfa39b7a950e7b8
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 10, 2013, 07:14:42 pm
So, jes, how do you feel about finding aces after the first round round, then?  You can call that article garbage if you want, but the fact remains the 3 active pitchers your purposely mentioned as aces that the author's criteria excluded were still first round draft picks.  I'll agree  that the article didn't include aces I would have, but I still believe the overall point remains valid.  If you want a bonafide ace, you better be spending a first round choice on him.  If the guys you had mentioned had been taken later, then I would have said the author had selective bias to prove a point, but since they would have helped prove his point, can't really do that.  And saying the article is garbage comes off as just wanting to ignore something that goes against the  approach you seem to be advocating for this draft.  You may generally beat a point into the ground, but at least it's usually a valid point.

However, I do think aces who K a lot do better in the playoffs.  Of course, that might just be my own biased perception, so you really don't have to spend 3 hours trying to prove me wrong.  I understand I may very well be.  Cain excluded, but he has a higher percentage of iffb than most pitchers and those are pretty much automatic outs.  Pop ups look like they actually may be the missing component for pitchers who consistently have lower than expected babip.  Batting average on pop ups is virtually nil, or no random chance, so exclude those, and their babip's approach average.  Jered Weaver gets a ton of pop ups, too, which is part of the reason why he has still been able to be an above average pitcher with his upper 80's fastball
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 10, 2013, 08:22:42 pm
No, Ray, if you want an ace you can also go out and acquired them by trade or as FA.  Looking at how one entered professional baseball, or in which round they were drafted, is far less meaningful that how pitchers who were aces reached the team or teams they were playing for during their ace years, and once you take that into account, it is very easy to see that a team does not need to spend first round draft picks on pitchers in order to and up with an ace.... or two.

As to the approach I seem to be advocating.... what approach is that, because i genuinely have not advocated one.

As to your suggestion that I should ignore the GIGO aspect of the article because the pitchers I mentioned were first round picks and therefore would support the writer's conclusion.... the GIGO principle still applies.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 10, 2013, 10:31:27 pm
ok...just curious.  I really don't see being able to acquire one in fa.  Teams are locking there guys up earlier and earlier and not letting them get close to free agency.  I think Price is the only bonafide ace coming up, and he's in 2015 i think.  However, I would imagine the Rays trade him before then and that increases the likelihood he gets locked up.

I could be wrong but you seem to want a hitter over a pitcher, and you keep bringing up the spread it around approach.

The Cubs could always trade for one, but that is going to be incredibly prospect expensive.  I really don't want to give up Baez et alii for a top guy when I could take a chance on Appel or Gray turning into that.  Sam, Garza(if he resigns), Gray, Jackson, and Pierce Johnson sounds like a solid to very good rotation in 2 or 3 years.  Then we get to keep all our prospects and hope half of them work out.  Drafting your own ace also allows for much great financial flexibility if he works out.  If the prospected ace busts, then you can trade Baez, Vogelbach, + whatever else or their equivalents for one.  What would be really nice is for Appel or Gray to work out and still acquire Price in trade or on some remote chance he makes it to fa, there.  Talk about a 1, 2, 3 punch.  Not going to count on that though.

The Appel/Gray selection would be dependent on them being at the top of the Cubs draft board, of course, which sounds like is going to be the case.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 11, 2013, 04:12:50 am

I could be wrong but you seem to want a hitter over a pitcher, and you keep bringing up the spread it around approach.

I believe I have discussed options, possibilities, considerations and probabilities, without commenting on what approach I believe theCubs should take.  I don't yet have a real opinion as to which approach the Cubs should take.

Drafting your own ace also allows for much great financial flexibility if he works out.

Except that at the time of the draft, you don;t know whether you are "drafting your own ace," or drafting someone who will never make the majors because of injury or because he simply doesn't pan out, or because he goes beserk one day and charges the othe team's dugout with a bat and....  You simply do not know.  You are drafting possibilities and probabilities,  The Cubs thought they were drafting their own ace with Kerry Wood.  They thought they were drafting their own ace with Mark Prior.  It sure appeared they had developed their own ace with Zambrano.  And noe are around now, and none were around long enough to build a franchise around.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 11, 2013, 06:48:22 am
... I really don't want to give up Baez et alii for a top guy when I could take a chance on Appel or Gray turning into that.  ...

I said last winter that it could make excellent sense to shop Baez.  If he's a SS behind castro, there are other teams who have bigger SS needs that trying to upgrade Castro.  And if Baez really can play excellent SS but the Cubs might need to move him to 2B or 3B, where perhaps he won't be either as good as he is at SS, or perhaps as valuable, trading him makes all the sense in the world.  I also said that at the time because I thought it might make sense to trade him, because as a no-walk/high-K hitter in A-ball, it is very possible that he'll never be great. 

I still totally feel that way. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 11, 2013, 07:41:04 am
As long as Baez continues to develop and learns how to channel his aggression, I wouldn't even consider dealing him.  When Baez is ready, Castro is the guy to move if you're going to move either one of them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 11, 2013, 08:25:51 am
As long as Baez continues to develop and learns how to channel his aggression, I wouldn't even consider dealing him.  When Baez is ready, Castro is the guy to move if you're going to move either one of them.


I haven't seen any "continues to develop", at least not yet.  Two years ago he came in with a huge undisciplined swing.  Last year in XST he had a huge undisiciplined swing and K'd a bunch.  At Peoria he went with a huge undisciplined swing that whiffed a lot.  At Daytona he went with a huge undisciplined swing that whiffed a lot and made Corey Patterson look like an OBP king.  At instructional league he went with a huge undisciplined swing that whiffed a lot and made Corey Patterson look like an OBP machine.  This spring in camp he came in with a huge undisciplined swing that whiffed a lot.  Now in early FSL he's showing a huge undisciplined swing and is K'ing all the time, although so far he's even worse than he was last summer or last fall.  He's making Brett Jackson look like a contact machine.  There don't seem to be any indications thus far that he's "developed" at all.  He's the same guy with the same issues that he had last year, only maybe worse. 

Hopefully a time will come when he does "develop".  And I know that he's been in the system for less than two years, so that's a limited window to evaluate whether he's just going to be a flat-liner or will later become upwardly mobile.  But there doesn't seem to be any sign of improvement thus far. 

Hopefully all in due time. 


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 11, 2013, 08:39:19 am
Clearly there are big questions about Baez in terms of whether he projects to be a ML SS and whether his batting weaknesses will prevent him from developing into a good ML hitter.  Just as clear is that he has a lot of raw talent and that his ceiling is very high.  I don't deal a young player like him in part because I want to demand of my development team that they work with him on improving his game.  We must hone that aspect of our organization if we hope to be a perennial contender down the road.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on April 11, 2013, 11:29:25 am
Is Nitro Nic Jackson still playing in the Northern League?  Because that's where Baez is headed once Craig is through with him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 11, 2013, 12:46:59 pm
I expect Nitro Nic will be back in Fargo again this summer, he's a mainstay! 

I hope Baez learns how to hit.  But whatever other tools a guy may have, if he doesn't have the ability to make contact between bat and ball, how can "high ceiling" be true?   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 11, 2013, 12:57:15 pm
I guess if the Cubs' development group believes that Baez will likely never make sufficient contact to be a plus ML hitter, dealing him now would be logical.  If they believe that Baez can develp the contact skill enough to become a good MLer, then you develop him.  I see him as a future third baseman with excellent power, good defensive ability, and a tendency to K that will be acceptable.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 11, 2013, 01:30:04 pm
He could profile as something of an Ian Stewart type at 3B, minus the walks?   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2013, 06:19:41 pm
ESPN Insider has a new draft piece up with stuff on nearly all the top prospects. Could someone post it?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9160412/austin-meadows-clint-frazier-mark-appel-jonathan-gray-other-draft-dilemmas-mlb-draft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 11, 2013, 06:30:25 pm
Here ya go good sir. 

Every spring, clubs begin to see enough separation between talents that their draft board starts to really take shape. For most clubs that starts to occur in April. Teams are narrowing their choices, and those drafting in the top five may be down to fewer than 10-12 names from which they'll choose.

But when lining up the top names, the decisions get really tough. Here are a few of the biggest dilemmas out there.

Meadows or Frazier?
If a club wishes to take the upside route on a high school bat, choosing between Grayson (Ga.) High School's Austin Meadows and Loganville's Clint Frazier may be the No. 1 task on their docket. Meadows has advantages in terms of long-term defensive profile -- center field, versus a likely corner outfield role for Frazier -- and the higher ceiling at the plate, but Frazier has a jump start on him in terms of present skills.

It's also noteworthy that Meadows is the more physically projectable player and bats left-handed. Both players have a shot to be selected in the top 10, but in terms of pure talent, Meadows is more likely to remain on the draft boards of those selecting in the top five.

Gray or Appel?
The top two college pitchers on most, if not all, draft boards right now are Stanford right-hander Mark Appel and Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray. Appel has the track record and polish and may be on a path to the big leagues inside of a calendar year or so, while Gray brings what may be a slightly higher upside, thanks to huge velocity that approaches triple digits.

The question at the top of the draft is whether or not the Houston Astros will consider either pitcher, or try and spin their bonus pool in similar fashion as last year when they tabbed Carlos Correa at No. 1, gave him a below-slot bonus, and then used those savings to get better prospects later in the draft.

If the Astros pass on both, the choice will fall to the Chicago Cubs at No. 2. Appel is the No. 1 overall player on Keith Law's Future 50 as well as the boards of many clubs, and with less than two months remaining until draft day, Gray still has some chasing to do.

"For us," said one national crosschecker after spending a weekend watching three of the country's top starting pitching prospects, "it comes down to risk. If we feel one of them is more certain to maximize his value where we pick, he'll have the advantage. Right now, there is a leader in the clubhouse, and I'm not sure I foresee any changes."

Prep catcher battle
Jon Denney of Yukon (Okla.) HS was the buzz over the summer, but Kentwood (Wash.) HS star Reese McGuire has closed the gap this spring, showing better receiving skills and putting his plus arm on display on a daily basis. Denney hasn't impressed a lot of scouts with his defense or throwing ability, but McGuire lacks the long-term ceiling of a middle of the order bat. If the difference in offensive upside is the deciding factor, Denney will win out and be taken of the board first.

I've seen McGuire a half-dozen times this spring and while I have walked away impressed each time, I have yet to see the left-handed hitter put a charge into a ball and truly drive it. In two games in attendance to see Denney -- a right-handed hitter -- he lit up fastballs twice to his pull side. "Same for me," said an NL scouting supervisor. "Reese is hitting for average, working the pitchers, showing good discipline and a solid, consistent stroke, but at some point I'd like to see him smack the baseball around the yard."

Neither is what one might label a no-doubt catcher though the scouting opinions tend to lean toward both managing to stay behind the plate to differing levels. Come June, clubs will have to decide what they value most: Denney's power or McGuire's chance to develop into an average or better defensive backstop.

What to watch
• Speaking of decisions, clubs preferring a college hitter may choose between North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran, San Diego's Kris Bryant and Stanford's Austin Wilson in the top half of the first round. Moran is the best pure hitter in the class, but lacks the power to pair with the hit tool, perhaps giving Bryant the edge, despite the chance he may end up in right field, rather than the hot corner. Moran (.388/.509/.628) and his Tar Heels teammates begin a three-game weekend series at Virginia Tech Friday.

Bryant, who is batting .351/.516/.833 with 14 long balls, will face right-hander Scott Frazier and Pepperdine over the weekend. Law scouted Bryant last week.

Wilson missed time to start the season due to injury but the outfielder is four games into his return and already showing why he's a first-round talent. A strong finish could land him in the top 15. Wilson and ace Appel host Washington. Both players will have the chance to dominate.

• Gray will take on Baylor on the road while the draft's top college left-hander, Indiana State's Sean Manaea, goes Friday versus Creighton.

• Perhaps the best collection of arms in a series this week will at Arkansas where the LSU Tigers visit for three games. Ryan Eades of LSU and Ryne Stanek of Arkansas will face off Saturday. Barret Astin, a Day 2 prospect for the Razorbacks, takes on 2014 prospect Aaron Nola Friday night.

• Jacksonville ace right-hander Chris Anderson (2.11 ERA, 59 2/3 IP, 75-9 K/BB) will pitch at Kennesaw State this weekend looking to continue to solidify his first-round status. Performance, particularly in front of senior scouts, is critical for Anderson due to the fact that he isn't facing top competition this spring. Keith Law will be there for Insider and will file a full report.

• New Mexico third baseman D.J. Peterson will play a home series versus Fresno State this weekend, seeking to build on a strong showing at the plate thus far. Peterson is batting .412/.514/.882 with 29 extra-base hits and an impressive 23-14 BB/K ratio. He does hit in a friendly environment, but he's been solid on the road, too, batting over .350 with 12 extra-base hits. Peterson's place in the first round is unclear, as there are a few clubs that like him significantly more than others.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2013, 08:27:55 pm
Thanks again, Ray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 11, 2013, 08:30:41 pm
Law doesn't think Meadows has the arm for right, so it sounds like if he moves off center, it would have to be to left.  That would downgrade him a little to me, since he projects to be about 6'3" 230 when he's done growing and might have trouble staying there.

Austin Meadows from law

Grayson (Ga.) HS won its game rather handily on Wednesday night -- 15-0 in three innings, which was enough to invoke the state's mercy rule so things didn't get any further out of hand -- so outfielder Austin Meadows didn't get much of a chance to show off his tools outside of BP and a couple of game swings.

Meadows (No. 3 on my first draft ranking) doesn't stride at the plate, with a little toe-tap as he loads his hands and very good acceleration once he's loaded -- not as fast as Clint Frazier's hands are, but fast relative to the rest of the class.

On the whole it's a sound left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed and hip rotation for above-average power, although I'd like to see more loft in his finish, as a player of his size and strength should project to 70-grade (or better) in-game power. Adding a small stride might help and could also stop him from rolling over his front foot from time to time.

Meadows is a plus runner with a fringy arm, one that will play in center but, if he outgrows the position, would make right field impossible. He's 6-foot-3 and already past 200 pounds, very strong but also likely to end up close to 230, the upper end of what plays in center field in the majors, meaning he'll have to maintain that running speed to stay in the middle of the field. If he does, there's the potential for above-average hit and power tools, maybe more power with some tweaks to his setup at the plate, and average defense in center.

I see more potential overall in Meadows than I do in his neighbor Clint Frazier, whom I profiled on Monday, as Meadows is far more physical, a better athlete, and more likely to stay in center than Frazier. But Frazier has more present power, maybe a lot more, as well as better bat speed, so even though neither guy is that advanced at the plate, I couldn't argue with a team that saw Frazier as a safer bet because of the skills that are already in place.

• On Tuesday I headed to Sylvester, Ga., to see right-handed pitcher Robert Tyler of Worth County HS, a potential third-round pick -- maybe second if someone really likes him -- who is among the youngest pitchers in this draft class but needs a lot of help with his delivery.

Tyler was 89-93 on Tuesday, the pitch showing some life at the 89-91 end of the range but coming in true up to 93. He was struggling to find his breaking ball, throwing it with soft rotation at 77-78, and threw just one changeup at 82. He's listed at 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, and his arm action is very long in back and around his body, which makes it hard for him to repeat it and also has him coming from a lower slot than would be ideal, given his height.

He's a project, with size and arm strength already, but is held back by the lack of a breaking ball and an arm action that doesn't work for him right now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 11, 2013, 08:32:14 pm
From April 8th.

We're exactly two months from the 2013 MLB draft, and now is often when teams start to truly formulate their draft lists, even if they don't get finalized until days -- or hours -- before the draft. This week we saw the return of a potential top-10 selection, a potentially lingering issue for the best left-handed pitcher in the class, and an obscure shortstop who continues to impress scouts with his speed and athleticism.

• It's been a disappointing year for Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea, and then came news that he would miss his start on Friday because of a hip strain. Manaea was able to throw on Sunday and went six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks, but it created a concern with a few scouts I talked to.

"Hip injuries can just be such a lingering issue," an NL scout said. "Even if it's mild and creates just a little bit of discomfort, it's something to keep an eye on because they have this nasty habit of coming back. [I'm] not saying that it's a reason not to draft a kid, but it's more homework for a club to do and can put doubt in a club's mind."

• Mark Appel had one of his poorer outings against USC on Friday, even if the line would tell you otherwise. The Stanford right-hander was one out from a complete game and gave up just two runs with seven strikeouts and two walks, but his fastball was mostly 92-94 mph, and he didn't command his slider very well. No prospect is flawless, so we'll just go ahead and chalk this one up as a rare bad day.

• The pitcher who replaced Appel was Stanford right-hander A.J. Vanegas, and his return is a welcome sight to scouts, even in relief. Vanegas worked to only one batter, but he was 92-94 and threw one plus slider as well.

"He's a huge wild card to me," an AL Central scout said. "When he's right he's got a 70 fastball and a 60-65 slider [on the 20-80 scouting scale], and those kinds of arms don't grow on trees. But he hasn't been consistent, and you're probably dreaming if you think he can start long-term. Still, the talent is immense."

• Appel's chief competition for the No. 1 draft spot, Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray, didn't put together his best statistical evening of the year, but the stuff still looked like that of a top-two selection for the most part. The Sooners right-hander went 6 2/3 shutout innings and struck out seven, but he did allow seven hits and two walks. I expected Gray to dominate a weak Texas lineup, but again, the overall body of work has been too impressive to worry about one average effort like this.

• Ryne Stanek's stock has fallen considerably, but he did have one of his better efforts Friday night against Alabama. The Razorbacks right-hander went eight scoreless, striking out five and giving up just four hits. He'll need to miss more bats to get back into top-five consideration, but there's plenty of time and this was a positive step forward.

• Plenty of scouts were in attendance to watch Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley pitch against San Diego State, but Shipley's was not necessarily the name on their minds after the game. The Wolf Pack ace pitched well on Friday, giving up just three hits and two runs while striking out five in eight innings against the Aztecs, but he was clearly outpitched by Michael Cederoth.

Cederoth -- who isn't draft-eligible until 2014 -- went eight scoreless innings, giving up just four hits and one walk while striking out 14. Most impressively, the Aztecs right-hander hit 100 mph on several guns, while sitting in the mid 90s and showing above-average secondary stuff. It looks like there could be some more competition for North Carolina State's Carlos Rodon and Vanderbilt's Tyler Beede as to who the best arm in the class of 2014 will be.

Hitters
• Last week I talked about how badly this year's class needs Austin Wilson to come back from his elbow's stress reaction. This weekend, we got that return.

Wilson made his return Friday for Stanford, going 1-for-2 with a walk before being lifted for a pinch-hitter in the sixth inning. He was given Saturday off, then returned Sunday to go 2-for-4 with a double.

"Just seeing him back is a positive thing," an AL East scout said. "Now hopefully we see him play in the outfield soon. There's going to be some rust, but if he shows even a little bit of what he showed me in the summer, he's the best college outfielder in the class."

• Aaron Judge's weekend was a great example of why scouts are so intrigued -- and so flummoxed -- by the Fresno State outfielder. Judge went hitless on Friday against UNLV, striking out three times before bouncing back on Saturday with two hits, including a long homer off potential early Day 2 selection Buddy Borden. Of all the prospects I've talked to scouts about, Judge is the one I get the most conflicting reports on.

• Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows have dominated the prep outfield talk, but an outfielder who deserves more attention is Plano (Texas) High School's Billy McKinney. McKinney hit a long homer on Thursday versus Plano Senior, and his smooth left-handed swing has drawn rave reviews from talent evaluators. He's not the best athlete in the class -- and he's almost assuredly going to have to play a corner outfield at the professional level -- but a team looking for offensive upside near the bottom of the first round could covet McKinney's skill set.

• If you see a junior college player go early, it's generally a pitcher, but this year we could see a shortstop go on Day 1: East Central Community College's Tim Anderson. Anderson was the NJCAA player of the week, hitting .533 with two doubles, two triples and four stolen bases.

"I think he's the best shortstop in the class, and that includes college or high school," an AL West scout said. "He's a 70 runner, an outstanding athlete, and there's some real offensive upside in his bat. It'd be nice to see him face some higher competition, but the tools are very impressive. I'd take him on Day 1 easily."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 11, 2013, 08:34:19 pm
And one more from Law dated April 8th.

Some notes from my weekend in Los Angeles after seeing UC Irvine's Andrew Thurman and San Diego's Kris Bryant, two likely first-rounders.

• Thurman pitched a gem against Hawaii on Friday night, only running into trouble in the ninth inning after eight superb frames in which he commanded his fastball and showed four weapons. The right-hander was 91-93 with his fastball early in the game, slipping a little to 89-92 by the sixth inning, and worked very well side to side with the pitch, making up for the fact that it didn't have a ton of life.

His off-speed pitches were inconsistent, but all flashed above average at some point during the outing. His changeup was the best of them, 77-80 with good arm speed; his coach called for several in a row at a few points during the game and Thurman was confident enough in the pitch to execute it.

Behind The Dish with Keith Law

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The slider was probably the most consistent, like a hard curveball that he got on the side of a little too much, but that he'd use to right- and left-handed hitters. His curveball started out soft at 72-75 but got sharper as the game went on, and he threw it for strikes the whole night. His arm is quick, and his arm path is short, with just a little hitch as he brings his front leg down.

He's 6-foot-3, 205 pounds , with a strong core for durability, and has reached 95 in other starts this season. Even at 90-93 he's a clear first-rounder for me, probably in the 20-30 range.

• The University of San Diego Toreros were at Loyola Marymount this weekend, so Bryant was in town, but he was only able to DH after rolling his left ankle Wednesday; he was running without favoring the leg but had a slight limp when he was walking.

He's the top college bat in this draft, primarily for his power, showing it off in BP Saturday but not in the game. Bryant sets up with a very wide base and has no stride, just a toe-tap for timing. It's a quiet swing overall, with excellent hip rotation for power, but his bat speed is just average or a tick better and I worry about his contact rates when he's consistently facing guys throwing 90-plus in pro ball.

He struggled against breaking stuff Saturday but there's no doubt that he can murder a good fastball. I saw Bryant as a shortstop in high school but he has outgrown that position and may do the same to third base; I think he'd be fine in right field, as he's reasonably athletic for his size and has plenty of arm for that position.

He's probably a low-average/high-power hitter down the road, with a ceiling of .260-.270 averages (and likely less) but 30-homer potential as well, and I expect him to go in the top 10 picks, with at least three directors from teams drafting that high at LMU with me.

• Right-hander Dylan Covey started for San Diego, and looked OK for three innings before falling apart in the fourth.

Covey was the Brewers' first-round pick in 2010 from Maranatha High School (Pasadena, Calif.), but decided not to sign at the last minute when a physical revealed that he had diabetes, after which he chose to stay closer to home to deal with the disease. (Without knowing all of the specifics of Covey's situation, I was and still am surprised at his choice -- the first-round choice of an MLB team is going to receive a much higher quality of medical care than the average American receives, both due to access and because the team has such a large investment in the player.)

Covey was 89-92, flashing a little better, but had 40-grade command early and 30 command in that final inning, fatal when your fastball is straight and likes to hang out in the upper half of the zone. He showed four pitches, with a straight change at 81-83 and two breaking balls, a curve and a slider, that had similar shapes but different velocities. His biggest problem is that from the stretch, he's off the rubber way too quickly, building up no momentum as he heads toward the plate and losing the benefit he'd get from rotating his hips more.

I like how much extension he gets out front and his arm action is short and clean, even if his finish is a little abrupt. I'd consider him in the third round as a project guy who could have a solid future in the pen with an outside chance he could start.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on April 11, 2013, 10:45:55 pm
From Law's chat today:


Blake (Chicago)

Local writer thinks the Cubs may draft Jonathon Gray as their 1st round pick. What say you?


Klaw:

I've been saying that for a few weeks - if Appel goes one, I believe the Cubs would take Gray two. If Appel doesn't go 1-1, I think the Cubs would take him. There isn't a great third option for either spot - taking one of the Georgia prep OFs would be a clear step down.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 11, 2013, 11:57:40 pm
Something tells me the Cubs would pass up Gray even if Appel went to Houston. Years of incompetence maybe.

I'd take Gray over Appel right now anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2013, 09:08:23 pm
Jonathan Gray was off again tonite against Baylor. Not sure what the issue is but he was behind half the batters he faced and even issued a 4-pitch walk. The ump also squeezed him, but he still wasn't his usual dominating self. Only gave up one run on an infield hit, a walk, and a seeing-eye single through the hole.

8-4-1-1-2-10
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2013, 10:32:31 pm
Mark Appel had some trouble with an anemic Washington offense early tonight.

8-7-4-3-2-7
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 12, 2013, 10:41:51 pm
Appel: 1.41 ERA,  63-2/3 IP, 41 H, 11 BB, 78 K

Gray:  1.19 ERA,  68-1/3 IP, 38 H, 13 BB, 81 K
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 12, 2013, 11:07:21 pm
I think I like Gray's "off" line a little better.  He is simply unreal.  I wonder if that dude in the "safety not guaranteed" move can tell Theo who will end up as the better pro.  It was based on a true story, right?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 12:34:56 am
Gray wasn't bad by any stretch. I don't want that to be the impression. He was just off early before settling in. The three other times I saw him pitch he was constantly up 0-1, 0-2, 1-2. Tonight he was often behind 1-0, 2-0. And he threw some pitches that got away and did nothing. It was a shock after viewing his other performances which were machine-like. Tonight he was mortal by his standards, but still plenty good. Only one hard hit ball off him in 8 innings. He threw some pretty wicked sliders in the latter innings as well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 13, 2013, 01:48:43 am
Gray wasn't bad by any stretch. I don't want that to be the impression. He was just off early before settling in. The three other times I saw him pitch he was constantly up 0-1, 0-2, 1-2. Tonight he was often behind 1-0, 2-0. And he threw some pitches that got away and did nothing. It was a shock after viewing his other performances which were machine-like. Tonight he was mortal by his standards, but still plenty good. Only one hard hit ball off him in 8 innings. He threw some pretty wicked sliders in the latter innings as well.

I haven't watched Gray pitch near as much as you, but he's at the top of my list right now.  You may have already addressed this, but would you say Appel has the higher floor?  I could see that being the deciding factor between the 2 hurlers with this regime, or, at least, it seems to be a criteria they use.  I doubt we are in line for any of the elite college guys next year with some of the craptastic teams the Cubs will have to be competing with this year for a top pick, so I'm hoping they take the guy they feel has the higher ceiling.  I'd rather not have a guy going up against Strasburg in the NLCS or Verlander in the World Series because he had a high floor.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 02:33:53 am
Quote
You may have already addressed this, but would you say Appel has the higher floor?

I don't see how Appel's floor can be higher. Having watched Gray pitch I wonder what his weakness is. His stuff, command, control, mound presence, and pitching acumen all appear to be top notch or very, very close. I sense Appel's are as well. I just think Gray's ceiling is higher, but I'd like to see Appel pitch live more.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 13, 2013, 04:58:30 am
I'm not sure if it really establishes a floor, but it may be perceived because of the consistency/doing it longer stigma he has over Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 05:28:16 am
Sure, there's this notion that Appel has this higher quality track record. Fact is Gray had the better sophomore numbers of the two and his junior stats this year are going to crush Appel's from a year ago. Heck, they're matching Appel's current stats. Appel simply has one more year under his belt. Who knows what Gray could do if he came back for a senior season.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 13, 2013, 06:36:46 am
We need to get you talking to theo. although since I've wanted the cubs to draft him as of a couple weeksish ago, I was prolly a lil easier than your average guy to convince.  If its someone else, just hope it's because they rise up, and not because Gray drops off.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 13, 2013, 08:29:19 am
I think that point on "floor" and "record" is noteworthy.  IIRC, Appel hasn't really been pitching that long.  I thought I'd heard that his high school had some other top guy, and he was perhaps still pitching relief as a HS senior, and also was pitching relief, at least for a while as a college freshman?  Last year the reputation was that his performance didn't quite match his stuff.  Which fits with a guy who hasn't been doing it that long, and has been kind of learning how to put his outstanding arm and stuff to better use and under better command.  I'm guessing Gray, while a year younger, may actually have more pitching experience, even if he hasn't been the 96-100 mph guy until recently? 

In terms of "floor", I have to assume mechanics/delivery and perceived injury-risk have to be factored.  Chris, how "big" and heavy is Gray?  Is fitness or body type a concern at all?  Zambrano was often weight-challenged, which led to some back issues.  Kerry had back problems at times as well.  Does that seem at all a potential issue for Gray?  I've gotten the sense that Appel was a familiar name for #1 because he has a "classic" pitcher body and scouts like his delivery, so perhaps there are fewer risks with him health-wise? 

I wonder, though.  I seem to recall seeing something recently, maybe Keith Law or somebody, saying that "heavier" pitchers actually have a better track record for health.  There's also the notion that a guy who hasn't pitched as much and doesn't have as much mileage on his arm may be preferable, which might be an advantage for Appel.  But I wonder if that isn't actually a myth.  For Cub prospects, at least, it seems more common rather than less that position-to-pitcher converts seem to end up hurt, although obviously I haven't really done a study.  So I'm partly suspecting that Appel is perhaps more rather than less likely to end up needing surgery.   On the other hand, I don't know what Gray was throwing the last two years, but if he was throwing 100 last year I doubt he'd have lasted to round 10 or whatever in the draft. So perhaps somebody whose arm is suddenly 5-10 mph faster than a year ago, perhaps that's much more wearing, beats me. 

Would be fun to sit in on the administration's discussions of these two guys. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on April 13, 2013, 09:24:48 am
I believe that Gray is becoming the better draft choice, and since I do not believe he is a Boras client, he may be the better value, which leads me to believe that the Astros will take him, if they take a pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 03:17:02 pm
Quote
Chris, how "big" and heavy is Gray?  Is fitness or body type a concern at all?  Zambrano was often weight-challenged, which led to some back issues.


He's much more streamlined than Zambrano although still a big guy (6-4, 240). A close comparison might be a young Wood. Gray could probably lose 10 pounds but he's not fat. He's also rather nimble. Last night he bare-handed a grounder up the middle, the second time I've seen him do that.


Quote
On the other hand, I don't know what Gray was throwing the last two years, but if he was throwing 100 last year I doubt he'd have lasted to round 10 or whatever in the draft.

He's certainly developed, to the point that he was listed as a 2nd-roundish type coming into the year.

Here's a guy who wasn't highly thought of for a while and was even heavier than Gray:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/season-preview/2009/267522.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 13, 2013, 03:27:29 pm
Between Appel and Gray, which projects to be more effective against ML hitters with pitches other than fastballs?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on April 13, 2013, 04:13:34 pm
Their sliders are about equal.  Appel is supposed to have the better change-up, but I think Grey's is underrated because he doesn't need it.  I'd like Grey, but I'm not going to cry if the Cubs get Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 13, 2013, 04:33:54 pm
Thanks, CBJ.  ML league pitchers need to rely on more than their fastballs, and it sounds like both Grey and Appel have ML quality secondary pitches.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 05:23:34 pm
I would be surprised if Appel's breaking ball is as good as Gray's. Maybe it is, but I doubt it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 13, 2013, 05:57:20 pm
Manaea today against Creighton: 6-2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 8 K, 2 R
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 15, 2013, 04:23:38 pm
new blog entry on draft from Law today.  Doubt they really "know anything" but Cubsden has speculated Eades as a guy cubs might like in second round.  And of course the obligatory Appel/Gray stuff.

This weekend saw a matchup of two first-round arms that didn't quite live up to the hype; Colin Moran continued to kill baseballs, and the debate over where Trey Ball will play at the next level raged on.

• You don't generally see potential top-10 picks matchup on Saturday, but we saw just that in Fayetteville this weekend when LSU's Ryan Eades took on Ryne Stanek and Arkansas.

Stanek got the better of Eades, going 6 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just four hits, while striking out five and walking three in an 8-3 victory for Arkansas.

Eades, meanwhile, struggled for the first time in SEC play. The Tigers right-hander gave up gave up eight hits and five runs over his four innings but also struck out five and walked three.

"Stanek clearly was the better pitcher today," said an AL scout. "He's not the same guy I saw this summer, but today was a step in the right direction. He commanded all four pitches pretty well and I still see a No. 2 starter. [Eades] just didn't have it today, I've had him mostly 93-95 this year and Saturday he was 90-92 and he didn't command it very well. The curveball was fine, but this was easily the worst I've seen him this year."

• Once again Stanford's Mark Appel wasn't spectacular, but there is little reason for concern. Appel went eight innings against a very poor Washington club, giving up four runs (three earned) on seven hits and two walks, striking out seven. While the Stanford right-hander hasn't been as sharp in April as he was during his ridiculous March, scouts have had high praise for his makeup on the mound and his ability to battle.

• Meanwhile, Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray was his usual dominant self against Texas on Friday. The Sooners right-hander hit 99 mph in the first inning and was in the high-90s all day, giving up just one run and striking out 10 in his eight innings of work. The way Gray has thrown, we might have a "1A/1B" situation developing between him and Appel at the top of the draft.

• At the beginning of the year, most scouts believed that New Castle (Ind.) High School's Trey Ball was a better outfield prospect than on the mound. Now, it seems to be scouts are leaning the other way. Ball was very good on the mound Friday, striking out seven in three innings while only giving up an infield single on 34 pitches. Ball also went 2-for-2 with a homer on the day. But 6-foot-6 left-handers do not grow on trees, and his projection on the mound will likely be too difficult to pass on.

"I like [Ball] as an outfielder, but I'd put him on the mound," said an NL West scout. "The issue I have is with his height, if he fills out, he's likely going to have to play first base, and I don't see the bat playing there. He's got a long way to go as a pitcher -- and you have to dream on most of it -- but I can see a frontline starter. He's a heck of an athlete, but I don't think he's got star power with the bat, especially if he's at first."

Hitters


UNC Athletics
Moran just keeps on raking and should be a top pick.
• After middling power numbers to start the year, North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran has come on strong over the last few weeks. Moran picked up seven hits in the Tar Heels' weekend sweep of Virginia Tech. He also hit his ninth homer of the season on Saturday. Over his last 20 games, Moran has posted a .584 on-base percentage and an .864 slugging percentage, good for a 1.448 OPS.

"I'm still not sure he's a top-10 guy, but I'm getting there," an AL East scout said. "I don't see the upside of some of the other bats, but he might be the safest bat in the class. If he can play third, he's an All-Star, but I don't think that's a lock, which is why I have some reservations. He's the best left-handed hitter in the class, though."

• No one has had any doubts about Kris Bryant's power, and his ability to get on base has drawn rave reviews this year as well. Bryant hit leadoff for San Diego this weekend, walking twice on Friday and Saturday. He added a long homer Saturday afternoon.

One executive told me that he doesn't see Bryant getting out of the top five, and there's a good chance that he doesn't make it out of the top three.

• Austin Wilson continues to play catch-up after his injury, and this weekend we finally saw the Stanford athlete play in the outfield. Wilson played right field on Friday and Sunday. He hit his first homer of the season on Saturday as a DH. He'll need to have a huge end of the season, but there's still a chance we see Wilson go in the top 10 of this year's draft.

• Prep first-baseman generally don't go early in the draft, but an exception might be made for Serra High School's Dominic Smith. Smith has impressed many with his bat speed and power potential, though he wasn't at his best this week. Against a rebuilding Bishop Amat program, the left-handed hitting first baseman went 1-for-5 with two walks, and he hasn't picked up an extra-base hit in four of his last six games.

"The problem [with Smith] is that if you're going to take a guy who's going to play first that high, he better have 70 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] power, and I don't think he does," an AL scout said. "I'm not in love with the swing, either. He doesn't transfer his weight very well, and I think he's a long-term project. I'd be surprised if he's still on the board when day two starts, but I think there's a ton of risk taking him that early."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on April 16, 2013, 12:20:45 pm
Colin Moran sounds like a guy the Cubs would reach for with the number two pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on April 16, 2013, 01:20:15 pm
The assigned bonus values per pick have been announced.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/assigned-pick-values-for-top-10-rounds/

2    Cubs    $6,708,400
41    Cubs    $1,361,900
75    Cubs    $736,200

If the Cubs take the approach they did last year and take college seniors in Rounds 8-10, they could conceivably apply another $432,000 to their 3rd rounder and wind up with 3 players making $1M+ bonuses in this draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on April 16, 2013, 01:22:58 pm
Also, with a total bonus pool of $10,556,500, the Cubs can have another $527K to play with if they're willing to go 5% over their bonus pool.

Seems like there's a pretty good opportunity to add a lot of "impact" talent with our bonus pool, depending on how we decide to allocate it. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 16, 2013, 07:11:38 pm
Quote
I don’t quite understand a statement you made regarding Stanford righthander Mark Appel during your last draft chat. You said, “Appel isn’t going to have to take a deep discount” because “If Houston passes on him, the next few teams in line would all love to have him.” I acknowledge that I may not understand what you mean by a deep discount. At the same time, I don’t understand how the likelihood that Appel will go in the top three picks changes the fact that, unlike last year, he doesn’t have more college eligibility remaining. If the Astros or Cubs were to draft him, draw a hard line and offer no more than the $4.8 million that No. 1 overall choice Carlos Correa got last year, does Appel have any other reasonable alternative but to sign?

Levi Portillo
Houston


Quote
Appel and Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray have established themselves as the top two prospects in the 2012 draft. While Appel has less leverage than he did a year ago, his talent still gives him plenty of negotiating power. He should get much more than the $3.8 million he turned down from the Pirates after sliding to the No. 8 overall pick a year ago.

Appel’s situation isn’t really analogous to Correa’s. If Correa hadn’t gone No. 1 overall to the Astros, where the assigned pick value was $7.2 million, the perception was that he would have lasted until the Cubs at No. 6 ($3.25 million) or the Padres at No. 7 ($3 million). So it made sense for him to take a discount that still paid him more than he would have gotten otherwise, though I’ve since learned that had Houston taken Byron Buxton, the Twins might have chosen Correa at No. 2.

The best-case scenario for the Astros is a repeat of 2012, when they land a player worth of the No. 1 selection but save enough money to do a lot of damage in later rounds. This year, Houston’s assigned pick value is $7,790,400. If the Astros pass on Appel, he very well could be at the top of the Cubs’ draft board at No. 2, where the value is $6,708,400. The Rockies (No. 3, $5,626,400) and Twins (No. 4, $4,544,400) probably would be thrilled to have Appel and willing to move money around to add to their pick value. So he should clear well north of $4.8 million.

There are two good reasons that a team won’t take a hard line with Appel. First, he’s advised by the Boras Corp. Clubs legitimately fear that draftees, even college seniors, will walk away from a deal that Scott Boras doesn’t like.

Second, Appel could take a hard line with a club. Let’s say the Astros choose him and make him a take-it-or-leave-it $5 million offer. I agree, it would be silly to turn that much money down to re-enter the 2014 draft.

But Appel could decide not to sign until right before the July 13 signing deadline of 5 p.m. ET. Houston couldn’t risk spending the $2,790,400 they saved on his bonus to land other players until he was in the fold. (Update: Actually, as @jeremynygaard reminded me on Twitter, the signing deadline doesn’t apply to Appel, making it even easier for him to hold a team’s bonus pool hostage.) If the Astros spent the savings before Appel signed, they’d risk losing their next two first-round selections, including the possible No. 1 overall choice in 2014.

Ultimately, clubs give up leverage to draftees because they want to sign the best players available. If Houston rates Appel and Gray evenly, then it makes sense to select the guy who will accept a more team-friendly deal. But if the Astros like Appel more than any other 2013 draft prospect, I think they’ll take him and give him a bonus of $6 million or more.


http://ht.ly/k5r6I
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 17, 2013, 11:23:46 pm
Another Law draft article.  Though, these guys would have to be second pick candidates if they slid that far.

Right-hander Hunter Harvey of Bandys High School near Charlotte, N.C., is the son of former big league reliever Bryan Harvey. But unlike his dad, Hunter projects as a starter -- emphasis on the word "projects," as taking him high involves a fair amount of projection on the stuff and the body.

Harvey pitched in Lenoir, N.C., against West Caldwell on Tuesday night, with a handful of pretty senior national scouts in attendance, showing solid stuff but struggling with command and control.

He was 90-93 mph with his fastball for five innings, with his 75-77 mph curveball his out pitch against hitters on both sides of the plate; he varied the shape of the breaking ball, although I'm not sure how deliberate that was, throwing some with real two-plane break and depth and others that were more vertical as he'd try to hit the inside corner to right-handers. He showed the willingness to work inside with his fastball to left- and right-handed hitters, but not the ability to locate it consistently, walking or hitting several batters despite the fact that he had a four-run lead before he took the mound.

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There's no step-over to Harvey's stride -- he almost drags his lead leg forward, landing on the third base side of the mound, cutting himself off and limiting how much arm speed he can get from that forward motion. He gets way out over his front side when releasing the ball, and despite the landing spot his arm slot is high enough that he doesn't end up throwing across his body. Get him landing towards the plate and leading more with the front leg and his command and perhaps velocity will improve in short order.

Harvey is also very projectable physically, 6-foot-3 and about 180 pounds, with room to add 20 pounds over the next few years. He's declined to commit to a college, making it clear that he intends to sign -- a significant competitive advantage over other prep arms in a draft system that all but mandates that clubs strike predraft deals with their picks. (Even though such deals are illegal, MLB has never been all that great at anticipating unintended consequences.) I think he's a late first-round/early sandwich-round talent, but I expect him to go higher than that because of his signability.

Ciuffo rising
Lexington (S.C.) HS catcher Nick Ciuffo has entered the first-round equation as well, one of three prep catchers likely to go off the board in that range along with Reese McGuire (who has been throwing extremely well this spring) and Jonathan Denney (an offensive catcher who needs work to remain behind the plate). Of the three, Ciuffo is the best catcher to me, showing above-average power at the plate and demonstrating arm strength that is handcuffed somewhat by a longer throwing motion.

Ciuffo's swing is very simple, with very little stride and a consistent path. He rotates his hips well and has the hand strength to pull the ball, even when he rolls over his front foot through contact. His plate coverage on the outer half wasn't as good as it was on the inner half when I saw him on Saturday, as he kept his hands inside the ball well but his general pull-orientation made him a little vulnerable to stuff away.

Behind the plate, Ciuffo showed outstanding hands -- he caught nearly everything that was catchable and kept his glove very steady after receiving the pitch, the first step towards the ability to "frame" pitches. His arm strength is fine, but when throwing to second he wound up more like a pitcher, taking a step toward second and making his arm travel further than it needed to, resulting in average to slightly below-average pop times. Area scouts who've seen him more all answered my questions by saying Ciuffo has a 55- or 60-grade arm, so clearly I caught him on an off day.

High school catchers are a risky class of players in the draft because of historically high failure rates, with three primary reasons: They don't hit, they can't stay at catcher, or they get hurt. Ciuffo is a no-doubt catcher, with some upside remaining there, and at least has the power and hand strength to hit enough to profile as a regular there without a ton of improvement. That should get him picked in the back half of the first round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 18, 2013, 02:16:31 am
Thanks as always, Ray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on April 18, 2013, 12:49:03 pm
JON HEYMAN
Baseball Insider

No Gray area: 100-mph-throwing Sooner Jonathan Gray hot prospect

Quote
One NL scout summed up like this: "Really good. Power arm rumored to have touch 103.''

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22097433/no-gray-area-100mphthrowing-sooner-jonathan-gray-is-hot-prospect (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22097433/no-gray-area-100mphthrowing-sooner-jonathan-gray-is-hot-prospect)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 18, 2013, 03:29:51 pm
Gray's getting more and more press. I have this sick feeling the Astros are going to take him.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9184897/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-climbed-mlb-draft-boards-spring-college-baseball
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on April 18, 2013, 05:33:45 pm
Keith Law's latest top 10 (out of 50):


1
Mark Appel
POS: RHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: Stanford

Analysis: Still clearly the best player in this draft, boasting stuff, command, an out-pitch in his slider, a good delivery and athleticism. If I were the Astros (or the Cubs, picking second, which I think is Appel's floor), I'd try to work out a deal less than the recommended bonus number ($7.7 million for Houston) but more than the figure Appel turned down from the Pirates last year ($3.8 million), with the carrot of a big league callup in September if he throws well after signing. He could pitch in a major league rotation in 2014 regardless.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 1

2
Jonathan Gray
POS: RHP
HT: 6-4
WT: 239
School: Oklahoma

Analysis: Boasts more power than Appel, hitting 100 miles per hour and sitting at 94-98 with the fastball and possessing a plus-plus slider of his own. Gray doesn't have Appel's command track record but mighthave just as high of a ceiling. He's clearly the second-best player in the draft, but after these two guys, you could go in a lot of directions. There is no clear No. 3.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8

3
Austin Meadows
POS: OF
B/T: L/L
HT: 6-3
WT: 200
School: Grayson (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Meadows has the best combination of tools among prep players in this draft, but he has had only a so-so spring, and scouts have commented on his lack of energy on the field, questioning how badly he wants to play baseball professionally. While that's often a nonsense accusation, I do wish Meadows played with the kind of fire and intensity that Clint Frazier or Nick Ciuffo display on the field. His upside is still enormous, thanks to his size, raw power and ability to run and cover ground in the outfield.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3

4
Sean Manaea
POS: LHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 235
School: Indiana State

Analysis: It's been a good spring for Manaea but not as dominant as he was on the Cape last summer, which might speak to his high floor, with the potential for something more if last season's version returns. He has pitched at 90-94 mph most of the spring and misses a lot of bats with the fastball. It's not a great delivery, and the slider has been more average than plus, but this is the best college lefty in the draft, and he should go pretty high.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2

5
Kohl Stewart
POS: RHP
HT: 6-3
WT: 190
School: St. Pius X (Houston)

Analysis: If he stays healthy, he might be Josh Beckett -- the old version, not the slightly pudgy average-fastball-with-no-life version you see today. Stewart, who is committed to Texas A&M to carry a clipboard for a year behind Johnny Football on the football field, shows four pitches, including a knockout slider despite a rudimentary delivery. With pro instruction, he has top-of-the-rotation potential.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14

6
Kris Bryant
POS: 3B/OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: San Diego

Analysis: This might be a little aggressive for a guy with maybe a 25-30 percent chance of staying at third, but he's one of the top two or three power bats among college guys (with Hunter Renfroe and perhaps Austin Wilson), is a good enough athlete for right field and has a solid track record of performance. He wouldn't fall out of the top five picks today.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6

7
Braden Shipley
POS: RHP
HT: 6-3
WT: 190
School: Nevada

Analysis: He's a tall, athletic right-hander capable of running his fastball to 97 mph, while sitting in the low 90s. He possesses an out-pitch changeup and has a chance for an above-average to plus curveball with more experience. I saw him at high altitude, but the breaking ball is still just average or so, even at sea level. The delivery works, and he fields his position as well as you'd expect a converted shortstop to do.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10

8
Clint Frazier
POS: OF
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-1
WT: 190
School: Loganville (Ga.) HS

Analysis: He has the best bat speed in the draft, bar none, and is in the middle of a ferocious spring at the plate. I don't care that he's red-headed -- you'd be surprised the extent to which you still hear that trope, as if we were scouting Kid Nichols and King Kelly out there -- but 6-foot-1 right-handed future corner outfielders have a high bar to clear at the plate. I prefer Meadows -- who plays right down the road -- but if you asked me to drop $100 on which one goes earlier in the draft, I'd put it on the Red Devil.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 7

9
Ryne Stanek
POS: RHP
HT: 6-4
WT: 190
School: Arkansas

Analysis: Stanek came into the season with an outside chance to go second overall but has underperformed a little and been jerked around by the Hogs' coaching staff a lot. He was moved to different days and forced to overuse the slider rather than pitch off his fastball, which has reached 97 mph and will sit between 92 and 94 mph. Even with the weird usage, he's performed well; he just hasn't dominated as expected.

PREVIOUS RANKING: 4

10
J.P. Crawford
POS: SS
B/T: L/R
HT: 6-2
WT: 175
School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS

Analysis: The best shortstop in the draft -- maybe the only true shortstop in the draft -- Crawford would be more like a top 20-25 guy in a typical draft class, but the shortage up the middle and his potential to hit for average should push him into the top half of the round. I believe he'll hit, although his lack of running speed and power are drawbacks.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 18, 2013, 08:40:50 pm
Quote
Gray doesn't have Appel's command track record but

I see the meme is shifting from track record to "command" track record. Getting closer to reality.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on April 18, 2013, 08:43:10 pm
Zero franchise players in this draft.  If the Cubs can find a decent role player, it will be a tremendous success.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 18, 2013, 09:07:00 pm
Gray's getting more and more press. I have this sick feeling the Astros are going to take him.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9184897/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-climbed-mlb-draft-boards-spring-college-baseball

I'm worried bout that myself...I'm just hoping they'll employ the spread it around approach and leave the Cubs their choice of pitchers.  Even if they don't, i feel like the Cubs will get a potential ace with either guy.  I really like Gray, but I won't be disappointed with Appel. 

This is actually the most I've looked forward to a potential draftee since the Prior draft.  Next year has the potential to be a fun year to follow the Cubs even with the struggling.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 18, 2013, 09:54:03 pm
A Law article looking forward to the weekend.  It has a little bit about everybody.

As clubs narrow their draft boards over the next seven weeks most, perhaps aside from the Houston Astros -- the owners of the top overall selection -- don't know which name they will announce on draft day. Some, however, know who they won't be taking.

"At this point, at least for us, we have a group we'd like to consider strongly," said an American League scouting director. "We like a lot of players, but since we don't pick 1-1, we have to wait and see. It is safe to say there are some we like that we are pretty sure are off our board at this stage."

Behind The Dish with Keith Law

Keith Law breaks down all of the names for this year's Rule 4 draft with Kiley McDaniel.

More Podcasts »

It's not too late for players to change the minds of clubs in May, but most of the movement will likely take place within a smaller collection of names than teams began the season considering. The timing of such decisions comes down to minutes, even seconds, before each clubs selects, since they are at the mercy of those picking ahead of them, but there are times when the level of doubt is either high or nearly nonexistent.

"We've known well before our first pick before," a high-ranking scout noted. "We've also needed every second to make a choice. If it were like the NFL, we'd have taken all the time they give you."

It's typical for clubs to have a good idea, if not have the facts, about which players the clubs directly above them in the draft order are planning to select. "It helps you plan when you get that buzz," the scouting director said. "It's all about the plan. Right now, in April, we're still formulating our plan."

He also added, with a wink, of course, "I'll let you know when we finalize."

Weekend watch
• Oklahoma State right-hander Jason Hursh (3-3, 2.63 ERA, 61 2/3 IP, 55 H, 49 SO, 15 BB) looks to rebound from what one scout described as an "OK," outing last weekend at TCU, toeing the rubber at home versus Kansas State. Hursh is generally considered a potential Day 1 selection, and Keith Law has him at No. 44 on his latest ranking, which was released Thursday.

• One of a handful of junior college prospects receiving top-50 buzz is left-hander Cody Reed (3.78 ERA, 65 K's in 64 1/3 IP) of Northwest Mississippi Community College. Reed stands 6-foot-4 and tips the scales at 190 pounds and offers a fastball that has already picked up several mph from his high school days, touching 96 this spring. Reed will face Northeast Mississippi Community College over the weekend.

• Left-hander Tom Windle (1.35 ERA in 60 IP), the ace of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, will face Michigan State on Friday, looking to rebound from a mediocre outing at Northwestern last week in which he needed 113 pitches to get through five innings. He issued five walks and surrendered seven hits.

• Florida right-hander Jonathon Crawford (4.17 ERA in 54 IP) will take the mound Friday at Missouri, giving him a full week of rest after starting the first game of the Thursday-through-Saturday series last weekend. Crawford's fastball and slider was among the more revered two-pitch combos entering the season, but he's spent most of the spring in the low 90s, which has him overusing his off-speed stuff and nibbling at the corners. His stock has fallen as much as any preseason first-round talent, but there's still time for him to make up for it.

• Aaron Blair is the ace of the Marshall staff and the right-hander may be pitching his way into the first round thanks to a 2.40 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning. He'll try to take another step in that direction this weekend at Central Florida, which boasts its own pitching prospect in right-hander Ben Lively.

• Arizona State right-hander Trevor Williams (4-3, 3.05 ERA, 65 IP, 65 H, 47 SO, 9 BB) has answered some questions this spring, but is still not striking enough guys out. He has fanned 47 in 65 innings, albeit with just nine walks. He could solidify his status with a strong final six weeks. Part one of that trek is Friday at home versus nonconference opponent Valparaiso.

• LSU Saturday starter Ryan Eades makes start No. 10 on the year this weekend at Alabama. Eades was not at his best last weekend at Arkansas, allowing five earned runs on eight hits and three walks and leaving after four innings. His status hasn't taken a hit, but there are a number of college arms gathered in the top 25, jockeying for position come draft day. He has a 1.97 ERA on the year with 56 strikeouts and 16 walks in 59 1/3 innings.

• One of the top pitching matchups among draft prospects this weekend is at Pepperdine where right-hander Scott Frazier (4.65 ERA, 62 IP, 55 SO, 23 BB) faces Gonzaga ace and potential top-20 pick Marco Gonzales (2.71 ERA, 63 IP, 60 SO, 14 BB). Frazier is physical at 6-7 and 230 pounds, but there are concerns about his delivery and control, thus the expectation that he's a Day 2 selection.

• Top prospect Mark Appel will lead Stanford versus defending national champion Arizona and right-hander Konner Wade, a possible Day 2 talent. Appel "wasn't great" a week ago, according to an area scout, who added "it looked like maybe he was pitching to his competition." Appel faced Washington last Friday and while he picked up the win he wasn't crisp. If he is indeed pitching to his competition at any level, the Wildcats may be the bait scouts need to get another great outing from the Stanford star.

• Ryne Stanek (1.64 ERA, 49 1/3 IP, 43 SO, 19 BB), who flashed ace stuff last week but still was not as sharp with his command as he's been at times in the past, gets another chance Saturday versus Texas A&M.

• Sean Manaea, the top college left-hander in the class, again had problems throwing strikes consistently last Saturday, walking four batters over 6 2/3 innings versus Creighton, but he was otherwise strong, striking out eight and allowing just five hits. Manaea will go to battle against Illinois State this weekend.

• Jonathan Gray (1.19 ERA, 68 1/3 IP, 81 SO, 13 BB) and the Oklahoma Sooners host New Orleans in a weekend series. Gray fanned 10 last Friday at Baylor and appears firmly in the top 5, based on talent. Law currently has him ranked No. 2

• Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley (2.60 ERA) takes on New Mexico this weekend, setting up a pitcher-hitter battle between he and Lobos star D.J. Peterson (.402/.515/.833). Shipley is a surefire first-round pick and Peterson is receiving substantial buzz in the 15-35 range.

• The top college hitters in the class, San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant (.341/.517/.849) and Stanford outfielder Austin Wilson certainly have done nothing to hurt their draft stock. Bryant was off to the races in February and has maintained strong performances through the spring. He'll take his power swing to Santa Clara for the weekend. Wilson missed the first several weeks due to injury, but in his first eight games back (five starts), he's 10-for-26 with five extra-base hits.

• Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge (.336/.424/.544) will get Air Force at home this weekend, likely needing a very strong finish to warrant top-10 consideration, while Mississippi State star Hunter Renfroe aims to continue his utter domination of SEC pitching. Renfroe, a first-round talent, is batting .429/.494/.865 with 13 home runs this season, including an 8-for-14 series at Texas A&M last week. Renfroe will face Auburn this weekend.

• Colin Moran and the North Carolina Tar Heels host Duke this weekend, with Moran working on a first-round résumé, thanks to a .396/.510/.644 line. He's more of a doubles hitter, however, so his ceiling in this draft may be limited to the 20s, though a club looking for a "safe" pick could pop him earlier and possibly save a little on their draft budget.

• Yukon (Okla.) High School star Jon Denney plays a doubleheader Thursday at Harrah High School and single games Friday at Dale High and Saturday versus Enid. Denney has nine regular-season games remaining and could be the first catcher off of the board.

• Dominic Smith, perhaps the best pure hitter in the class on the prep side, is scheduled to face St. John Bosco in the second of a home-and-home before taking the weekend off. Smith has seven regular-season games left.

• Kentwood (Wash.) HS catcher Reese McGuire heads to Thomas Jefferson for a rematch of a 2-1 win last month. McGuire is red hot of late, loading up on extra-base hits, something he wasn't doing a lot of earlier in the year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 19, 2013, 01:07:41 pm

(http://cmsimg.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=D0&Date=20130419&Category=SPORTS06&ArtNo=304190043&Ref=AR&MaxW=300&Border=0&Not-typo-Port-Gibson-s-Sayles-finishes-103-steals)

Not a typo: Port Gibson's Sayles finishes with 103 steals


Written by Rod Walker

Yes, I already know it.

You’re going to read the next line and say something like “man, no way.”

Port Gibson senior baseball player Silento Sayles finished the season with 103 stolen bases.

That’s a one, a zero and a three. One-hundred and three.

Here’s a message to the doubters from Port Gibson baseball coach Dan Smith.

“The only thing I can tell them is to come watch him play,” said Smith. “Get a clock because the stopwatch doesn’t lie.”

Sayles, who was named to The Clarion-Ledger’s Dandy Dozen in February, played his final high school game Wednesday night. He stole seven bases in the 10-0 victory over Jefferson County to reach 103.

He set a state record, shattering a 22-year old mark that may be even more incredible. Anthony Acy and Brad Sewall, teammates at now defunct-Natchez Trace Academy, each stole 87 bases during the 1991 season to share the record.

It is also believed to be a national record as well. According to the National Federation of State High School Association’s record book, the record was 96, set in 1996 by Vicente Rosario of George Washington High in New York.

read more:  http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20130419/SPORTS06/304190043/Not-typo-Port-Gibson-s-Sayles-finishes-103-steals (http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20130419/SPORTS06/304190043/Not-typo-Port-Gibson-s-Sayles-finishes-103-steals)

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 19, 2013, 05:21:06 pm
Anthony Acy and Brad Sewall, teammates at now defunct-Natchez Trace Academy, each stole 87 bases during the 1991 season to share the record.

And neither Acy nor Sewall were ever drafted.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 06:46:18 pm
There is a Cubs scout in attendance for Jonathan Gray's start tonight.

Took Gray 3 pitches to reach 100. He fanned the leadoff batter looking and got a weak grounder on 0-2. The third batter reached on an error before Gray picked him off with a super quick move.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 06:56:50 pm
Gray gets two popups and a grounder in the 2nd. Just 20 pitches so far.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 07:11:51 pm
Gray fans the side in the 3rd capped off by a 100 mph FB down the middle. Unlike some past starts, he has gotten some generous calls from the ump. Not that he really needs it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 07:32:24 pm
Gray loses the no-hitter with two out in the 4th. LH kept fouling pitches off before flaring one into right. Gray still K'd three in the inning, the first on a slider that produced one of the most amazing swings I've ever seen: slider almost hit his foot and he practically did a dance during his swing.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 08:08:28 pm
Another infield hit off Gray in the 6th, but no damage done. OU's manager says during in-game interview that they're going to "protect" Gray, intimating that he won't be completing this game.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 08:19:51 pm
Well he wasn't kidding about protecting Gray as Gray's night is over after 6 innings.

6-2-0-0-0-10

I had him at 82 pitches.

Oh, and he hit 103 on one pitch.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 19, 2013, 08:26:55 pm
Thanks, Chris.  Very nice. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 19, 2013, 08:33:49 pm
Yep.  thanks.  Sounds like great start.  Here's hoping Appel matches him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on April 19, 2013, 09:46:51 pm
I'm just not sure how the Cubs could go wrong with either of them. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 11:49:31 pm
Appel: 6-2/3 -7-3-2-2-6, HB

He was allowed to throw 123 pitches. His defense reportedly hurt him in this game.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 19, 2013, 11:53:47 pm
Appel: 1.54 ERA, 70-1/3 IP, 48 H, 12 BB, 84 K

Gray:  1.09 ERA, 74-2/3 IP, 40 H, 13 BB, 91 K


Gray's last 7 starts:

54-2/3 IP, 28 H, 6 BB, 72 K, 0.50 ERA
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2013, 08:04:32 am
Highlights from Oklahoma's game:

http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=26414741


The entire game:

http://www.soonersports.tv/video/play.jsp?content_id=26306453
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2013, 04:01:25 pm
There has been some talk about and concern over Jonathan Gray's tendency to fall off to the 1st base side a bit on his follow-through. In his post-game comments last night Gray said he was working on fixing that issue.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 20, 2013, 04:02:07 pm
Manaea's Saturday outing:

5-1/3 -6-4-3-3-9
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 21, 2013, 04:34:36 am
Mayo's new draft list: Appel, Gray, Manaea, Frazier, Meadows, Bryant, 1-6.


http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 21, 2013, 07:59:52 am
That list would seem to illustrate something I have commented on before among posters here.

When we are looking at the draft we are looking at young guys who are still developing, and evaluating them and reaching a sound opinion as to what they are likely to do in the future a very heavy emphasis should be put on their most recent performance, but for many, including the writer of that column, it would appear that they have formed an opinion after the conclusion of the prior season and that there is considerable, and unreasonable resistance to changing that opinion.

Though Appel certainly deserves a great deal of attention and has looked very good this season, Gray has looked even more impressive, and even the scouting report of each of them at that site would seem to favor Gray... though Mayo still ranks Appel ahead of Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 21, 2013, 03:29:35 pm
Quote
though Mayo still ranks Appel ahead of Gray.

Most still are ranking Appel first. Not me.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 21, 2013, 04:50:52 pm
Denver Post's Troy Renck:

Quote
Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray remains on the Rockies' radar with the No. 3 pick in the June draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 21, 2013, 05:10:51 pm
I can't help but wonder if they're using grades from before the season or something for Gray, too?  I thought his slider was already above average?

Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 7/8 | Slider: 5/6 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 5/6
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 21, 2013, 05:13:51 pm
Most still are ranking Appel first. Not me.

Perhaps I have simply been influenced by your posts here, but you are not alone.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 22, 2013, 04:41:20 pm
More Law on the draft.



It was a wet weekend that saw many games cancelled or pushed back, but the games that were played offered fodder for plenty of interesting analysis.

Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray continues to look like the most dominant pitcher in college baseball. He's athletic and continued his good run in difficult surroundings, while two outfielders did their best to prove their tools will show up in games.

• Gray was facing one of the worst teams in college baseball, so it should come as no surprise the Sooner ace was dominant Friday. Gray went six shutout innings, giving up two weak singles while walking no one and striking out 10 in a 10-0 win against New Orleans. Once again, Gray's fastball sat in the high 90s, and it's looking more and more like he's a lock as a top-five, if not top-two, pick in the draft.

Keith Law had Gray at No. 2 on his most recent ranking of the top draft prospects, which was released last week.


• One of the pleasant surprises of this year's class has been the surprising depth of college right-handers, and a name that has gone somewhat under the radar is Nevada's Braden Shipley. Shipley took on a very difficult New Mexico lineup - led by potential first-round pick D.J. Peterson - and pitched well, giving up just two earned runs and striking out 10. For the year, the Wolfpack ace has put up a 2.59 ERA while pitching in some very difficult altitudes/ballparks in the Mountain West Conference, and struck out 75 batters in 73 innings.

"There's a lot to like about [Shipley]" an NL scout said. "He's one of the more athletic pitchers in the class, and he's also got a great feel for pitching. You don't see that combination too often. The breaking stuff isn't frontline-starter good, but the change is an out pitch right now. I'd take him in the top 10 if I was running a club."


AP Photo/The Tribune-Star/Jim Avelis
Scouts have not been blown away by Manaea this spring.
• Sean Manaea was considered a potential challenger for the No. 1 pick coming into the season - and while there's still time for him to get back into the running - he hasn't pitched like a contender for that spot this season. The Indiana State left-hander didn't make it out of the sixth inning in his start against Illinois State on Saturday, giving up three earned runs while walking four and striking out eight. Manaea had some bad luck, giving up two infield hits and having a runner reach via catcher interference, but it's another start where he's failed to go deep in the game and left-handed hitters continue to give the Indiana State southpaw trouble.

• After missing the beginning of the year due to a strained right shoulder, St. Pius X (Houston) High School's Kohl Stewart has been nothing short of dominant in his first five starts. Stewart went seven shutout innings against St. Thomas Catholic while giving up two hits and striking out 10. The Texas A&M football commit did walk four, but once again his stuff was upper-echelon, and he's sure to land in the top half of the first round.

Hitters
• Clint Frazier might get mixed reviews in terms of how much upside he has, but there's no denying that he's having a special year with the bat. The Loganville (Ga.) High School outfielder went 2-for-3 on Wednesday, including his 13th homer of the sesaon, against Heritage High School. For the season, Frazier now has put together a line of .521/.557/1.197.

"The [bat] speed is plus-plus," said an AL West scout. "He gets the bat through the zone faster than anyone in this class. It's really a numbers game, though. If you think he's a center fielder, there's no reason to think he's not a top-five pick. If you think he ends up in a corner, then it's a lot tougher to justify taking him that high. Ultimately, I think he goes in the first dozen or so picks, but it's going to be tough for a lot of teams to pass on that offensive ability."

• Lakewood (Calif.) High School shortstop J.P. Crawford is known more for his offensive abilities but has come on strong with the glove of late. Crawford made several outstanding plays Saturday, including a sensational diving play to start a 6-4-3 double play. No one has ever questioned his arm strength -- he's been clocked in the high 80s on the mound - but Crawford has improved his instincts and range as well. Don't be surprised to see him go in the top dozen picks come June.

• It was a big weekend for Aaron Judge, as the mammoth outfielder continues to try and show scouts that he can put his raw power to use in games. The Fresno State outfielder picked up four extra-base hits in his series against Air Force, including his sixth and seventh homers of the year. It's been said all along that if Judge could translate his batting practice pop into games he had a chance of going in the first round, and as of late he's done just that.

• It wasn't a huge weekend for Mississippi State's Hunter Renfroe, but he might have improved his stock more than any position prospect this season. After going 1-for-4 with a walk against Auburn on Saturday, Renfroe's overall line "dropped" to .407/.485/.815 for the year, and his 1.300 OPS ranks second to only San Diego's Kris Bryant among Division I hitters.

"He's always had the talent," an NL Central scout said. "In some ways he reminded me of [former Georgia Bulldog and Texas Rangers sandwich pick] Zach Cone -- a guy who shows you plenty of tools but doesn't ever put it together. Obviously, that isn't the case this year, he's hitting the ball with authority to all fields and his approach is markedly better than last year. The class needed a guy like this."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on April 22, 2013, 05:44:24 pm
More Law on the draft.

That's not Law.  It's his ESPN colleague Christoper Crawford.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 22, 2013, 06:26:45 pm
oops, yeah your right.  I just have the mlb draft blog bookmarked, pull it up, copy and paste and never really look at names/authors/whatever. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 23, 2013, 01:02:35 am
Thanks to Twitter I now know that Jonathan Gray handily won a pie-eating contest on Monday.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 23, 2013, 04:08:19 am
Quote
Prospect watch: Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray

Oklahoma junior right-handed pitcher Jonathan Gray has made the full transition.

The hype surrounding Gray during the early part of the spring certainly was warranted. After all, the imposing right-handed pitcher touched 100 on the gun during fall workouts, and also reportedly did the same at home earlier this year.

But the story this season for Gray is not simply that he’s a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher who can sit in the upper-90s for an entire game, even in cold elements, it’s the fact he has become a mature, and coincidentally, a much better overall pitcher and prospect.

Having seen Gray a couple of times during his sophomore campaign last season, it’s obvious the tools were there. He had a stocky frame that just screamed durability, and he had that power fastball to go with the plus slider. However, last season, he had a tendency to have a few good innings, then suddenly resort to bad mechanics, causing opposing teams to have huge innings to knock him out of games. Even with those issues, he still managed to tally a very respectable 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 innings, along with 104 strikeouts and 42 walks.

The Jonathan Gray of old is no more. That much has been clear so far this season, as evidenced by the fact he has climbed from No. 58 preseason in our Top 100 prospect rankings, to the likely No. 2 pick in the MLB draft behind Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel.

“You know, he’s the type of guy who can go 97-99 for 120 pitches, then punch you out with an 87-88 slider. That’s pretty special stuff right there,” Baylor coach Steve Smith said about Gray. “They tend to pitch him the way he’s going to pitch at the big league level, and he’s pretty effective going about things that way.”

With Gray and the Sooners down at Baylor a couple of weekends ago, it was the perfect opportunity to see what the new and improved right-handed pitcher was all about.

To begin the game, it seemed like Gray might have a rough night on the mound. Command of his fastball, slider and changeup was spotty, and he was pushing hard to the left during his follow through, causing many of his pitches to sail outside.

Gray attributed the slow start to being amped up, and that made sense because he was nasty as usual once he settled in against the Bears. Gray was consistently 94-99 throughout the game, even touching a couple of 97s in the eighth inning.

The elite right-hander also flashed good secondary stuff. His changeup was 80-82 and just sick when commanded well with that fastball, while his slider was interesting to say the least. He sometimes threw the pitch at 82-84, and others at 85-87, with great tailing action against right-handed hitters.

“You know, sometimes in games, I get a little too amped out and tend not to stay back on the rubber. That happened in the game, but was fine once I settled in,” Gray said. “As for my pitches, the development of the slider has really helped me a lot this year. Sometimes, when I just need a strike I’ll throw that thing 83-84, but when I need to punch someone out, will go 85-87 with it. I really try to mix speeds with that pitch.”

Moving forward, it’s pretty much a slam-dunk Gray is a top-five overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft, barring some late-season collapse or some other occurrence. For the season, Gray has a 1.09 ERA in 74 1/3 innings of work, along with 91 strikeouts and just 13 walks. He’s also limiting opposing teams to a .159 batting average, whereas teams hit .267 last year.

“The big thing for me this year is I’m going out there each week and trust my stuff. As long as I do that, I’m going to be fine,” he said. “I just stay within myself and not try to do too much. As long as my mechanics are there, everything will be all right.”

Transformation complete.


http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8325
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on April 23, 2013, 11:22:14 am
Gray's junior year vs Appel's senior year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 23, 2013, 12:06:53 pm
I liked the "two sliders" note.  A lot of guys have had good sliders sometimes, but can't always get it over, so get killed on "off" days.  And guys when they throw a sharp slider with 2-strikes, they can make an opponent look silly swinging at a bouncer.  But earlier in the count, hitters just take it and the pitcher is behind in the count all the time. 

The ability to have variations on the breaking pitch, to use it both as a setup/groundout strike-throwing pitch, but another variation that can be a knockout pitch, that's very appealing. 

Hardly unique, I know that.   Very routine for successful pitchers.  But a lot of our fastball-slider prospects have never had that and never succeeded.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: OkieCubsFan on April 23, 2013, 08:42:04 pm
So how's the 2014 draft looking?  I feel like we can give Miami a run for the top pick...  :)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 23, 2013, 08:43:20 pm
Maybe Houston will draft Gray and he'll refuse to sign.  We can always hope.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on April 23, 2013, 09:37:37 pm
Isn't 2014 supposed to be a better draft?  I think college arm wise there is Rondon, Beebe, and somebody else at the top.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 23, 2013, 10:02:57 pm
Cederoth is the other pitcher likely to be a top pick.

Not sure any of them can mach Gray or Appel though. We'll see.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 25, 2013, 03:20:16 am
Still with that awful feeling that we're going to lose him to the Astros.


Quote
Mike H. (Oakland): Jim, any real concerns with Jonathan's Gray's ability to command pitches for strikes?

Jim Callis: None. His command is much improved this year. He has given up 13 walks in 74 innings while holding opponents to a .159 average, so he’s locating his pitches just fine. And his pitches are more than just fine: a fastball touching triple digits, a wipeout slider and an effective changeup. That’s why he might go No. 1 overall in the draft.


Quote
Dennis (Chicago): Who do you think Cubs prefer to draft, who do you think they will draft? Will pitching dominate their draft?

Jim Callis: I’d be surprised if they didn’t take a college pitcher at No. 2, either Appel, Gray or Manaea. They really need arms and will stock up on them in the draft.



Quote
Joel (KCK): Jim, if you could draft any six college players regardless of eligibility, who would they be and in what order? Thanks

Jim Callis: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Carlos Rodon, Sean Manaea, Kris Bryant, Colin Moran.


Quote
Mike (Maryland): Who does Jonathan Gray remind scouts of? Does any MLB pitcher come to mind for you? Thanks!

Jim Callis: I keep hearing Gerrit Cole comps.


http://ht.ly/knksU
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 12:26:33 am
I don't know if anyone has full access to the Sun-Times, but the gist is probably all we need to know.

Quote
MIAMI — Baseball’s amateur draft is six weeks away, but the pitching-hungry Cubs already have narrowed their focus for the No. 2 overall pick to the top two college pitchers in the draft: Stanford’s Mark Appel and Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray.

Team sources have said for weeks that they expect one of those power pitchers will be the Cubs’ selection — possibly coming down to whichever one isn’t selected by the Houston Astros with the No. 1 pick.


http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/19719803-573/cubs-plan-to-use-no-2-pick-on-mark-appel-or-jonathan-gray.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+suntimes%2FbdCV+%28yChicago+Sun-Times+%3A%3A+Chicago+Cubs+%3A%3A%29
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on April 26, 2013, 12:35:03 am
I don't know if anyone has full access to the Sun-Times, but the gist is probably all we need to know.


http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/19719803-573/cubs-plan-to-use-no-2-pick-on-mark-appel-or-jonathan-gray.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+suntimes%2FbdCV+%28yChicago+Sun-Times+%3A%3A+Chicago+Cubs+%3A%3A%29


Cubs plan to use No. 2 pick on Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray


BY GORDON WITTENMYER gwittenmyer@suntimes.com April 25, 2013 11:22PM


MIAMI — Baseball’s amateur draft is six weeks away, but the pitching-hungry Cubs already have narrowed their focus for the No. 2 overall pick to the top two college pitchers in the draft: Stanford’s Mark Appel and Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray.

Team sources have said for weeks that they expect one of those power pitchers will be the Cubs’ selection — possibly coming down to whichever one isn’t selected by the Houston Astros with the No. 1 pick.

Manager Dale Sveum confirmed as much Thursday when talking about the film he has watched of the Cubs’ top 10 candidates for that pick and his conversations with the front office.

‘‘Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys,’’ Sveum said.

It would be the second time the Cubs have drafted a pitcher that high, having also selected Mark Prior at No. 2 in 2001.

Appel, a senior represented by tough negotiator Scott Boras, was considered the top pitcher in last year’s draft but refused to sign after falling to the Pittsburgh Pirates at No. 8, turning down a $3.8 million offer.

New, strict bonus-pool limitations for teams give the Cubs about $10.6 million to sign this year’s draft picks before overspending penalties kick in, with more than $6 million allotted to the first-round pick.

The 6-5 Appel has a mid-90s fastball, slider and changeup. The 6-4, 245-pound Gray, who has been drafted in the 13th and 10th rounds previously, has hit triple digits with his fastball and throws a good slider.

Bench for Stewart?

Sveum said he’s making no guarantees that Ian Stewart (quadriceps) will be the starting third baseman when he returns from the disabled list, presumably sometime in the next week or so.

‘‘He’s got to earn it,’’ said Sveum, who called third base fill-in Luis Valbuena ‘‘one of our most consistent players right now. So it’s going to be very difficult to move [him] out of a spot.’’

Stewart was 2-for-24 (.083) in his minor-league rehab stint at Class AAA Iowa entering play Thursday.

Garza improving

Matt Garza (strained latissimus dorsi), whose minor-league rehab start this week was scratched because of arm soreness, is improving, Sveum said, and is expected to resume throwing by Saturday, with a rescheduled rehab start possibly coming by the end of next week.

‘‘It sounds like it’s just soreness, just normal stuff,’’ Sveum said. ‘‘Hopefully that continues.’’
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 12:49:37 am
Ah, thank you Mr. MacFAIL.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on April 26, 2013, 12:56:13 am
Sure, it's pretty likely that Cubs draft either Appel or Gray but Wittenmyer is reading way too much into Sveum's offhand remark.  That headline is similar to Wittenmyer's headline a few months ago that Marmol was traded for Haren.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 01:03:16 am
Well, Patrick Mooney is saying the same thing though he also references Svuem's comments. Mooney's usually reliable.


Quote
The Cubs are scheduled to have at least one representative at every start Appel and Gray will make before the June 6 draft. The Houston Astros are on the clock.

“You go right up until the end,” team president Theo Epstein said recently. “And then we won’t know until literally five minutes before we pick because we pick second. We don’t know what’s going to be available to us.

“But the draft class is rounding into shape where there are a couple elite starting pitchers up on top of the draft and some interesting high school position players. I’d say there’s about half-a-dozen guys who have the potential to go first overall even, so we’ll see what happens.”


http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/cubs-draft-decision-could-come-down-appel-or-gray
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 01:04:54 am
Appel needs to start dominating again to give the Astros something to think about.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on April 26, 2013, 07:38:29 am
I feel sure that, given the closeness of the ability of the two, that the Astros will take the non-Boras client.  The Cubs will pick Appel unless one of the two pitchers falters or is injured.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on April 26, 2013, 08:18:04 am
You're probably right, Dave.  And Boras will probably somehow leverage the Cubs into overslotting Appel, so that our high 2nd pick will be relatively slot. 

I admit I still would love to see #2 go slot or under, so that we could go way over on our 2nd pick.  Each team has it's own scouting, so at 40 there should be at least one or more guys available that you'd actually rate among your top 25 or better.  A fair chance that somebody who's in your top 15-20 might be available, if that guy had top-15 contract demands; such that at 20 or 27 or 32 teams who liked him but not really more than somebody else just took the more signable somebody else.  But by 40 the Cubs might like him much more than anybody else, and if we had the cash might be able to get a second very, very good prospect.

Will be tougher, though, if you take Appel and pay him $1.5 overslot, or whatever. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 06:38:58 pm
It's quite irritating to learn at the last minute that Gray's start has been pushed back to Saturday.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 26, 2013, 07:45:53 pm
I'm fine with the Astros taking Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 26, 2013, 07:53:12 pm
Me too.  I think they'd take Appel if it weren't for the Boras connection, in which case I'd be fine with Gray.  But for me the two are close to a tossup - maybe a slight nod to Appel - and since the Astros probably feel about the same way, Boras will likely be enough of a factor to push them to the other guy.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 08:15:33 pm
Gray's the superior prospect, imo.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on April 26, 2013, 08:19:21 pm
When you're picking #2, you pretty much have to expect that you're going to get the #2 prospect.  You just can't get too disappointed when that happens.  Whomever we get as the Gray/Appel consolation prize is going to be a really nice guy to have.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 08:24:59 pm
Quote
You just can't get too disappointed when that happens.

Disappointment comes with being a fan of this franchise, JR. It will come for me on June 6 when Gray goes first.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on April 26, 2013, 08:26:26 pm
I like Grey more than Appel, but I'm more of an upside guy than looking at the floor.  I think Grey could become a #1.  I think Appel might be interesting to Houston because he is so close to the majors and a Houston native so it might help them sell at least a few tickets.  If the Cubs get Appel, I'm not going to feel too bad about it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on April 26, 2013, 10:30:48 pm
When the draft comes, it wouldn't shock me if Houston took a high school prospect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 11:23:55 pm
Good outing from Appel but he loses in the 9th primarily due to bad luck (error, bunt hit, IBB, single). He also threw more than 120 pitches.

8-1/3 -8-2-1-2-9
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 11:36:09 pm
Via a reporter from the Oregonian:


Quote
Adam Jude ‏@A_Jude 2h

Stanford RHP Mark Appel, a potential No. 1 pick in MLB draft, sitting 94-96 mph. Has touched 97. At least 10 scouts here.


And from a local Oregon TV sports reporter:


Quote
Erik Elken ‏@Erik_Elken 3h

Mark Appel hitting the fun at 95 and 97 with fastballs, then gets Payne on an 89 mph slider. Have fun with that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on April 26, 2013, 11:37:12 pm
Am I correct that Appel has had a number of 100+ pitch games this season?  I know he's no high school kid, but still that would concern me a tad, given the injury risk that exists with all pitching prospects.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 26, 2013, 11:42:33 pm
I was wrong about tonight. Appel threw 116, not 120+.


Appel has exceeded 100 pitches in all but his first start (5-1/3 IP).

105, 110, 107, 110, 108, 115, 124, 116
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on April 27, 2013, 12:01:30 am
I was wrong about tonight. Appel threw 116, not 120+.


Appel has exceeded 100 pitches in all but his first start (5-1/3 IP).

105, 110, 107, 110, 108, 115, 124, 116

Wow. Maybe he's a throwback who can do that sort of thing for a sustained period.  But it seems more likely that a workload like that is pretty risky for such a top prospect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 27, 2013, 01:24:20 am
Averaging about 110 pitches throwing once a week really doesn't seem out of line to me.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 27, 2013, 01:29:22 am
It probably doesn't matter anymore, but here's a detailed piece on Kris Bryant:

http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/college_baseball/2013/04/ruthian_homer_helps_boost_kris_bryants_draft_stock
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on April 27, 2013, 09:08:38 am
Appel has exceeded 100 pitches in all but his first start (5-1/3 IP).

105, 110, 107, 110, 108, 115, 124, 116

Wow. Maybe he's a throwback who can do that sort of thing for a sustained period.  But it seems more likely that a workload like that is pretty risky for such a top prospect.

David Price had a few 130+ pitch games his last season at Vanderbilt and was always over 100 pitches in his starts too.  Coach Tim Corbin didn't think the workload was too excessive for Price since, like Deeg said, he was only starting once per week.

Price has held up pretty well so far anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on April 27, 2013, 12:10:28 pm
Deeg & JR - Thanks for the comments. Makes me feel better if the Cubs get him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on April 27, 2013, 12:47:43 pm
Total innings are a much greater concern than single game pitch counts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 27, 2013, 04:40:10 pm
Jonathan Gray's start today: 7-1/3 -2-1-1-2-7 ,  112 pitches

His line should've looked even better.

Gray had 5 K's through two and didn't allow a hit or walk through five. In the 6th, the HP ump blew not one but two strike-three calls that cost Gray his first walk. The first hit followed on a grounder that would've been fielded had the 1st basemen not had to stay on the bag. The other hit was of the infield variety.

Gray left with a runner at 1st in the 8th which the OU pen let score.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 27, 2013, 06:23:05 pm
Gray:   8-1, 1.10 ERA, 81-2/3 IP, 42 H, 15 BB, 98 K, .153 BAA


Appel: 7-3, 1.49 ERA, 78-2/3 IP, 56 H, 14 BB, 93 K, .193 BAA
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 28, 2013, 06:35:02 pm
Jason McLeod was on Jim Bowden's radio show today and shared these eye-openers:


Quote
JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm 6h

Jason McLeod Sr VP Scouting & Player Development told us on XM 89 that Kris Bryant and Colin Moran are the best two bats in the draft


Quote
JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm 6h

Jason McLeod Sr VP Scouting & Player Development told us on XM 89 that Mark Appel & Jonathan Gray are the two best pitchers in the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on April 29, 2013, 12:34:54 pm
Quote
Disappointment comes with being a fan of this franchise, JR. It will come for me on June 6 when Gray goes first.

What you're really setting yourself up for is the Astros taking a high-school bat and the Cubs then taking Appel.  Appel will blow out his shoulder in his second start at AA, while Gray will go on to become a first-ballot hall-of-famer.  [/Jeff]

I forget.  Who was it they took instead of Wieters?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on April 29, 2013, 12:43:37 pm
Vitters
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on April 29, 2013, 12:46:26 pm
Of course, by your logic, if they had taken Wieters, it would be Wieters that was struggling now.

As long as we assume that no matter who the Cubs take, it will turn out badly, they there is no reason to worry about the choice at all, and no choice can be better than the alternative.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 29, 2013, 12:49:32 pm
Gray and Appel are both clearly big time talents.  To me, deciding who to draft depends on projecting: 1) future health and (not unrelated) 2) ability to maintain velocity over several years.  Assuming they both remain heathy, which of them is more likely to maintain velocity?  Which of them can afford to lose some velocity and remain elite?  Which of them is less likely to have serious arm issues?

Is our current talent evaluation system well suited to make reasoned assessments on these issues?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on April 29, 2013, 01:06:05 pm
Nope
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on April 29, 2013, 01:12:53 pm
There's always the coin flip approach.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on April 29, 2013, 02:28:02 pm
The problem of whether to take Gray or Appel is the Astros' problem. The Cubs won't have this problem unless the Astros draft a hitter.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on April 29, 2013, 03:01:12 pm
I think the current talent evaluation system is as well suited to make these decisions as any other teams talent evaluation system.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2013, 03:05:12 pm
All 7 of Gray's strikeouts are on this highlight reel from Saturday's start:

http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/042713aac.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 29, 2013, 03:08:39 pm
Chris Crawford moves Gray into the #1 spot:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/04/the-board-2013-volume-v-2/


He also has an Insider piece on the weekend action if someone wants to post it:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9224035/2013-mlb-draft-weekend-round-mark-appel-ryne-stanek-austin-wilson
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on April 30, 2013, 12:26:07 am
It was a mixed bag at best this weekend for MLB draft's 2013 class. The No. 1 player in the class faced a tough challenge in a Pac-12 rival, two former top pick challengers continued to slip and an injury to a toolsy outfielder could affect where -- and if -- he's drafted in the first-round.

Pitchers
I was in Eugene this weekend to check out Mark Appel and Stanford take on Oregon. Appel was solid, giving up eight hits and two runs in 8 1/3 innings, walking two and striking out nine. Appel's command wasn't perfect, but his stuff was solid and he kept the ball down, giving up just one fly ball out the entire game.

"This sort of reminds me of what (Pittsburgh Pirates prospect and 2011 No. 1 pick) Gerrit Cole went through his junior year," a scout told me after the game. "I wouldn't say he's bored, but I see a kid who's ready to start his big-league career. He's not piling up the strikeouts, but he's getting ground balls and he's throwing strikes. You could do much worse."

• Last week, Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea was able to pitch despite some hip trouble, but he had his start scratched this week. Manaea's people are saying it's simply precautionary, but it's now the second outing to be changed in three weeks. The Sycamores' ace still has a great shot going in the top five, but his health will be a must-watch over the next month.

• Ryne Stanek hasn't had any health concerns, but any momentum the Arkansas' right-hander had was diminished on Saturday against Georgia. Stanek went 6 2/3 innings, giving up only one run on seven hits while striking out and walking three.

"I've seen some bad [Stanek] starts this year, but this one takes the cake," an AL Central scout said. "None of his pitches even flashed plus in the first three innings, and the command was once again well-below average. I thought he'd challenge Appel at the beginning of the year, but there's no way I'd take him in the first 15 picks right now. If you do, you're betting on the Stanek of [last] summer, and that's a bad bet."

• It was also another mediocre outing for Jacksonville right-hander Chris Anderson, which has become an unfortunate trend. The Dolphins' right-hander gave up four earned runs in his 6 2/3 innings of work, walking four and striking out just three. At one point Anderson looked like a top-10 pick, but most teams I have talked to see him as a late Day One pick right now.

• UC-Irvine's Andrew Thurman didn't have his best statistical game of the year, giving up 11 hits and three earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his start against UC-Davis. But the line doesn't tell the complete story. Thurman got 13 ground ball outs, and the subpar Anteaters' defense did him no favors.

"People use the phrase 'pitchability' a lot, and Thurman has it," an NL scout said. "He's not going to be an ace, but he knows how to keep hitters off balance, and he's going to keep you in ballgames. Normally, that's how I'd describe an early Day Two guy. But this year? That should probably go in the first round."

Hitters
• In addition to Appel, I was also able to see Stanford outfielder Austin Wilson, who has worked his way back into high-pick consideration after missing six weeks with a stress reaction in his right elbow. Wilson wasn't great, going a combined 2-for-9 on Friday and Saturday, but he took two solid sessions of batting practice that showed why many think so highly of him.

"The timing didn't look like it was there yet," an AL West scout said. "But I think it's getting close. I don't think he's going in the top 10 anymore, but his athleticism is matched by very few, if any, in the college game right now. Someone is going to get a potential steal."

• Austin Meadows' regular season is over, and it ended as it began, with the Grayson (Ga.) High School outfielder hitting the ball with authority. In his showdown with Parkview HS, Meadows went 2-for-4 with two doubles, and finished his season with a .554/.655/.944 line. It's just a matter of where -- not if -- the left-handed hitting outfielder goes in the top half of the first round.


Bob Donnan/US Presswire
Moran displayed some difficulty handling elite left-handed pitching.
• North Carolina third basemanColin Moran has been hitting everything thrown his way for over two months, but he hadn't faced a lefty the quality of N.C. State ace Carlos Rodon, the early prohibitive favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. Moran didn't have the best game against the southpaw, going 1-for-4 with a walk, and the hit was an infield single.

"He didn't look great against [Rodon]," an AL scout said. "But lots of people don't look good against Rodon. I think Moran's going to handle left-handed pitching fine at the next level. There might be a split, but I don't think he'll be a platoon player."

• Ryan Boldt's Red Wing (Minn.) High School season didn't get started until the end of April thanks to Minnesota's less-than-ideal spring weather, and now his season might be in peril.

Boldt injured his right knee in the first game of a season-opening doubleheader against Farmington High while sliding into third base but remained in the game. In Game 2, however, he appeared to re-injure or cause further damage to the knee, coming down while failing to catch a fly ball. The left-handed hitting outfielder will be evaluated on Monday, although there is no swelling and very little pain, according to Boldt.

"You feel for the kid, but now taking him early is a huge risk," one crosschecker said. "We have so little on him as it is because of [Minnesota's] late start to the season, and now there's a chance he might not play again this season. You're basically basing your scouting reports on what you saw in 2012 and over the summer, and so much can change between then and now. I don't care how many 60s [on the 20-80 scouting scale] the kid might have, that's a risk that I don't know if I would take in the first round."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 30, 2013, 03:04:08 pm
The entire Perfect Game staff makes a list of who their top three picks would be, and the results are all over the map. Five of six #1's differ.


http://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=8351
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on April 30, 2013, 03:14:30 pm
Incidentally, you'll notice a new name being mentioned near the top. That's because PG has re-ranked the HS prospects and moved Meadows down to 5th. The new name being LHP Robert Kaminsky.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on April 30, 2013, 07:20:35 pm
Truth be told, Frazier is still the guy I'd take and I'm not surprised to see him getting so much attention from scouts of that caliber.  But I don't see the Cubs going that route.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on April 30, 2013, 08:40:07 pm
I think the Astros will come up with a slightly below slot number ( or right at slot), then call the top 5 names and tell them the first to agree to this number is our pick.

I could see us choosing between Gray and Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2013, 01:44:20 am
Quote
@JonathanMayoB3 If you were guessing today, who would Astros takes? Significance in pre draft work out at Austin Meadows school?

Quote
@tmengd And if i had to guess, i would guess Gray
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2013, 04:12:44 pm
Quote
CHICAGO CUBS

Top 10-Rd. Picks: 2, 41, 75, 108, 138, 168, 198, 228, 258 & 288

Bonus Pool: $10,556,500

Scouting Director: Jaron Madison (first year)

While we don’t have a track record for Madison with the Cubs, he was scouting director with the Padres from 2010-2012 where his top picks included Karsten Whitson, Cory Spangenberg and Max Fried. Before that, he was involved with college-heavy drafts with the Padres (2006-2007) and the Cardinals (2008-2009).

With the No. 2 pick—and a focused effort on restocking the club’s minor league pitching depth—this year’s draft class matches up nicely with the Cubs’ needs. They should pick either Stanford righthander Mark Appel or Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2013, 04:17:56 pm
Quote
CyMature (Western Mass): Who is the better prospect, Appel or Gray?
Is it too soon to predict where they go in the first round?
Thanks, Jim.

Jim Callis: I’ve been saying Appel, because he has a longer track record. But Gray’s stuff is a little more explosive and he’s throwing a ton of strikes too. Might be starting to lean toward Gray slightly. I think they go 1-2 or 2-1, would be stunned otherwise.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/prospectsdraftfantasy-chat-with-jim-callis/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 02, 2013, 08:52:31 pm
Appel's start against ASU will be on ESPNU tomorrow at 9 central, 7 pacific.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on May 03, 2013, 12:43:31 am
Thanks Chris.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on May 03, 2013, 02:01:53 am
Espn's Churchill on the draft.

There are two elite prospects in the 2013 draft class, and both are college pitchers. Stanford ace Mark Appel is the top talent for the second straight spring and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray has burst onto the scene with huge velocity, an out-pitch slider and sustained performance. The second tier, however, is a solid group, led by right-hander's Ryne Stanek (Arkansas), Ryan Eades (LSU) and left-hander Sean Manaea (Indiana State).

All three have questions that have yet to be answered. Stanek and Manaea have not shown consistent stuff and command this season, and Eades, who has been very consistent, needs to show a bit more dominance. As Keith Law wrote earlier this week, Eades fizzled a bit down the stretch last spring and with a labrum injury in his past a strong month of May could go a long ways to show that his shoulder, nor general durability or stamina concerns, are valid reasons to let him slide down (and potentially out of) the first round.

Behind The Dish with Keith Law

Keith Law talks to ESPN Insider Chris Sprow about the similarities between the MLB and the NFL draft.

More Podcasts »

Based on talent and value alone, all three could be taken off the board in the top 10, and it may not shock anyone if Manaea went in the top seven, with the Colorado Rockies (No. 3) Cleveland Indians (No. 5) and Boston Red Sox (No. 7), viable landing spots. There are some whispers, however, that the southpaw may be a summer wonder, having flashed more velocity, a better slider and consistent command in the Cape Cod League in 2012.

I took mini-poll of crosscheckers and scouting supervisors to gauge the MLB potential of this trio, and while none see a No. 1 starter in this group, the opinions varied beyond that.

"At worst, for me, Stanek is a closer," said one national crosschecker. "He could be a lot more than that, too. The stuff screams No. 2 guy. Eades is the safest pick; if he's healthy he's going to be solid, I don't see a lot of doubt with that."

What about Manaea? "He has a chance to be the best of the three," the senior scout continued. "The problem is there's more hope involved. When your'e drafting a college pitcher that high, usually the preference is to avoid a lot of risk like that."

Key starts for the trio during the season's final full month start this weekend.

• Eades gets the ball Saturday in the Tigers' series finale versus Florida, who are expected to go with potential Day 1 pick in right-hander Jonathon Crawford.

• Manaea will face Evansville after a failing to impress last week with 5 1/3 innings against Illinois State that produced nine strikeouts, but also spotty command, serving as another piece of evidence that perhaps Manaea isn't quite as polished as some of the other college pitchers in the class.

• Stanek, whom many scouts believe has turned a corner over the past month, takes on Kentucky in Lexington. Some evaluators have opined that Stanek has solidified his spot in the top 20, but can move into the top 10 with a great finish.

• Appel will be in Tempe to face Arizona State and right-hander Trevor Williams, who could be a Day 1 selection in his own right. Appel pitched well at Oregon last week, but didn't have "his best bait," as one scout put it. Keith Law will be there to scout this match-up for Insider and will file a full report.

• Gray was very good again last weekend versus Texas Tech and shouldn't have problems versus West Virginia this week. The right-hander is almost certain to record strikeout No. 100 on the season in what will be start No. 12.

• Nevada's Braden Shipley struck out just one batter in seven innings last Friday against Air Force and hasn't been quite as firm with the fastball in a few of his latest outings. With a lack of ideal stature -- 6-foot-2, 185 pounds -- Shipley could help himself by rebounding right away and putting together another streak of top-end results.

• New Mexico third baseman DJ Peterson is batting .403/.520/.811 with 13 home runs and will get another chance this weekend to pad his numbers in his hitter-friendly home confines. Peterson generally receives high grades for his ability to square up pitches, but if he has to move to first base may not profile well there in terms of power production. I've heard second round grades on him, but it's a thin class for college hitters, creating an opportunity for Peterson on Day 1. He'll face Air Force this weekend.

• Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge may be slipping after a lack of performance the past few weeks, including last weekend versus San Diego State when three of his four hits in the series came off the Sunday starter and he failed to put together quality at-bats Friday and Saturday in front of a large group of national scouts that were there to see him.

Notes
• In most of my conversations over the past week or so, clubs appear to want to draft positions players, and in some cases it seems they may reach a little bit to get one, rather than taking a pitcher.

This means a lot of teams in the middle of the first round could end up targeting the best position player available. The result of that may be that prep arms such as St. Ignatius Prep (San Francisco) lefty Matt Krook, fall to clubs like the Atlanta Braves at No. 31, the fourth pick in the sandwich round.

• One of, if not the biggest, opinion splits this year is with Kentwood (Wash.) High School catcher Reese McGuire. There are high-ranking scouts that see him as a surefire top-10 talent and those that appear to prefer someone else takes him. Still, the floor appears to be somewhere in the 16-21 range, while the high side starts at No. 4 with the Twins. The Pirates have seen McGuire extensively and have two picks, one at No. 9 for failing to sign Appel a year ago, and the No. 14 pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 03:23:59 am
Law said yesterday that people he's talking to expect the Astros to take Gray and cut a "deal" with him.

Seems likely.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 03, 2013, 10:12:20 am
Appel is as good a plan B as there is...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 03, 2013, 10:25:36 am
I wonder what the chances are of the Cubs taking someone other than Gray or Appel, saving some money on their first round slot, and allocating it to the rest of the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on May 03, 2013, 10:40:08 am
Approaching zero, I would think.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 03, 2013, 11:18:34 am
Entering the year, Theo had the notion that the farm was really thin on pitchers, but was strong for position guys.  I know it's only May, but I wonder if that has changed? Jackson has shown no hint of hitting.  Baez makes Jackson and Corey look like contact hitters.  Soler hasn't been overmatched in A, but has been struggling.  So I wonder if the perceptions have changed? 

With Wood and Villanueva both pitching so well, the big-league team doesn't look as needful rotation-wise, either.  Whereas castro and Rizzo haven't improved the outlook lineup-wise. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on May 03, 2013, 11:57:54 am
The number one cause of death in domesticated cats?  Feline AIDS.

Wah wah
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 03, 2013, 12:03:00 pm
LOL
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 06:16:36 pm
Gray struggling tonite. A pickoff and a failed attempt to steal home about the only things saving him at this point.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 03, 2013, 07:23:55 pm
Entering the year, Theo had the notion that the farm was really thin on pitchers, but was strong for position guys.  I know it's only May, but I wonder if that has changed? Jackson has shown no hint of hitting.  Baez makes Jackson and Corey look like contact hitters.  Soler hasn't been overmatched in A, but has been struggling.  So I wonder if the perceptions have changed? 

With Wood and Villanueva both pitching so well, the big-league team doesn't look as needful rotation-wise, either.  Whereas castro and Rizzo haven't improved the outlook lineup-wise. 

Baez making Jackson look like a contact hitter doesn't synch up with the facts. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 08:07:42 pm
Gray recovered a bit after a tough 2nd inning, but certainly wasn't his dominant self.

8-9-3-2-1-6 , 111 pitches


He threw 90 pitches through the first 5 innings. Incredibly, he had a 4-pitch 6th and a 4-pitch 7th. His only walk to leadoff the 2nd hurt him as did his own fielding error.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 03, 2013, 09:03:02 pm
Bobby Wahl last 8 starts...

58 IP
33 H
22 BB
45 K
0.78 ERA
0.95 WHIP
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 03, 2013, 09:05:16 pm
Kendall Rogers tweet:

@KendallRogersPG: #want RT @FPilierePG: Gray finishes the 8th with two 97 mph fastballs and an 86 mph slider. Over 110 pitches, major display of stamina
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 09:22:32 pm
Pretty impressive 1st for Appel:

94-95 consistently, one excellent changeup, a couple of nasty sliders. Two ground outs, a K, and a HB.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 03, 2013, 09:33:54 pm
Jed and 3 scouts for the Cubs, 4 for the Astros.  Appel or Grey will make me really happy.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 10:05:01 pm
Appel fans the side in the 2nd and gets one more in the 3rd, nasty change on the latter. He's dropped to 92-93 on some pitches out of the stretch.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 10:15:16 pm
Appel hangs a change and a slider and pays for it in the 4th. Back-to-back doubles and 2 runs so far.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on May 03, 2013, 10:15:59 pm
Appel better start pitching off his fastball...catching too much of the plate with the softer stuff.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 10:53:50 pm
Appel fans the side in both the 5th and 6th. Twelve in all now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on May 03, 2013, 10:54:05 pm
Appel has adjusted after one 2-run inning and found his groove...he has fanned the last 6 in a row and is really dealing and dominating now (12 Ks overall thru 6 innings).  He can really bring it and his off-speed stuff looks filthy when located.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on May 03, 2013, 10:55:55 pm
Chris, I know you like Gray a lot...does watching Appel dominate tonight make you feel like they are 1 and 1A?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 03, 2013, 11:10:11 pm
Appel already pitches like a Cub.  His defense has let him down in the 7th inning with an error and a bleeder for a base hit.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 11:25:56 pm
Appel's done: 7-5-3-2-1-13 , 108 pitches
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 11:28:44 pm
Quote
does watching Appel dominate tonight make you feel like they are 1 and 1A?

Maybe. I certainly liked some of the changes Appel threw tonight. He seems to use that pitch as more of a weapon than Gray does. The thing is that Appel is a senior who has improved. What would Gray look like at this point next year? If the answer is better, then that's scary.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 03, 2013, 11:39:46 pm
Appel's done: 7-5-3-2-1-13 , 108 pitches
Or maybe not done.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 03, 2013, 11:46:58 pm
I assumed Marquess wouldn't push him anymore, but I forget that always happens in college baseball.

So, Appel's now finally done:

7-2/3 -5-3-2-1-13   117 pitches
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 04, 2013, 12:00:59 am
Baez making Jackson look like a contact hitter doesn't synch up with the facts. 

Baez has a higher K-rate this year than Jackson had at Daytona or in any minor-league season 2009, 2010, or 2011 until last year.  Jackson didn't start K'ing as badly as Javy has this year until he reached AAA/majors. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 04, 2013, 12:41:51 am
You don't consider the fact that Jackson came out of 3 years in college and Baez straight from HS is a relevant consideration?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on May 04, 2013, 10:01:14 am
CubsDen has brief updates on Appel and Gray with reviews of a few others

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/05/mlb-draft-update-appel-wins-this-round-with-dominant-outing-as-gray-struggles/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 04, 2013, 03:32:08 pm
Arguello's description of Gray "struggling" compared to Appel's "dominance" is cute. I know he prefers Appel but come on.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 07, 2013, 06:07:33 am
Jonathan Mayo talks to a scout about the top prospects for the draft. A sample:

Quote
Appel has been here before. The Stanford ace was the potential top pick a year ago, but he ended up sliding to the Pirates at No. 8. Appel opted to return to school for his senior year and has arguably been the most consistent performer in this year's Draft class. After his win against Arizona State on Friday, he's 8-3 with a 1.56 ERA in 11 starts. In 86 1/3 innings, Appel has held opponents to a .195 batting average while allowing just 15 walks and striking out 106.

Why he should be the top pick: "He's just as good as last year, with a bit more edge to him. He has a track record of taking the ball every Friday for the past three years."

Why he shouldn't be the top pick: "Will the Astros be able to sign him this time? There have been times in the past where he's gotten hit more than he should."



Quote
Gray might be the only other prospect who has matched Appel, at least in terms of week-by-week performance. He had a no-decision against West Virginia on Friday, so his record stayed put at 8-1. Gray's ERA is 1.20. In 89 2/3 innings, the right-hander has 104 strikeouts against just 16 walks, holding hitters to a .166 batting average.

Why he should be the top pick: "The guy is 6-5, 240 pounds and touches 100 mph. I don't mean to feed you the obvious, but it's one of those circumstances, when you're picking No. 1, you look at the success he's had and the fact he's gotten better at every level he's played, it's almost a no-brainer that he enters the conversation. The conversation almost doesn't have to go more in-depth than that. There's no glaring issue with arm action or delivery. He's a great kid and comes from a great family. There really isn't anything that stands out as caution flags."

Why he shouldn't be the top pick: "If there is an unknown, he hasn't competed in summer baseball, in the Cape or [with] Team USA, as far as his exposure to a higher level of competition. This is the highest level he's thrown at, and the Big 12 isn't the best conference this year."


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130506&content_id=46752146&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_46752146
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 07, 2013, 04:52:48 pm
First-round mock from Kiley McDaniel:

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1289798.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 08, 2013, 07:35:12 pm
FWIW ABTY posted on PSD that he talked to a Houston scout that he knows and that they were leaning Bryant/Manea/Frazier with the first pick.  Same scout told him last year Correa was the guy.  He thinks Appel would be the pick, but Grey/Stanek also have been heavily scouted
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 08, 2013, 08:05:55 pm
FWIW ABTY posted on PSD that he talked to a Houston scout that he knows and that they were leaning Bryant/Manea/Frazier with the first pick.  Same scout told him last year Correa was the guy.  He thinks Appel would be the pick, but Grey/Stanek also have been heavily scouted

"they were leaning Bryant/Manea/Frazier with the first pick.... (but he) thinks Appel would be the pick, but Grey/Stanek also have been heavily scouted"

So what does that mean?  That this guy thinks the Astros are leaning Bryant/Manea/Frazier with the first pick, or that he thinks Appel will be their first pick, while Grey and Stanel have an outside chance?

Or does it mean anything?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 08, 2013, 08:10:41 pm
Sorry I was typing on my phone and it gave me issues.  The Astros scout thinks they are going to under slot the pick and choose from Bryant/Manea/Frazier.  The same scout told ABTY that the Astros would pick Correa last year.

He has heard the Cubs would likely choose Appel, but they have not missed a start for Grey or Stanek as well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 08, 2013, 09:27:34 pm
Thanks.  Makes much more sense, and is quite encouraging.  Reports on Gray make me most hopeful the Cubs end up with him, but either would seem good, and it is encouraging the Cubs may get to take the one they like best.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 08, 2013, 11:42:47 pm
Quote
@JonathanMayoB3...who do you think the #Cubs are leaning towards with the second overall pick?

..

@baseballfan4225 Thinking college arm, but no guarantees yet



Quote
@JonathanMayoB3 how shocked would you be if the Cubs took Frazier or Meadows at #2 instead of an arm?

..

@cincysportsart wouldn't shock me at all
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2013, 03:57:51 am
Gray's start Friday will be on ESPNU at 7 central, 5 pacific.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 09, 2013, 04:06:27 am
I think the Cubs are strongly in the Appel camp, and I expect Houston to pass on him.  If they don't, I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter over Gray - 50-50.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 09, 2013, 09:12:50 am
Gray's start Friday will be on ESPNU at 7 central, 5 pacific.
Didn't I read that his start was pushed back to Saturday night?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2013, 04:01:06 pm
Quote
Didn't I read that his start was pushed back to Saturday night?


I don't think so. I haven't heard that and I can't find it anywhere while searching.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 09, 2013, 04:08:01 pm

I don't think so. I haven't heard that and I can't find it anywhere while searching.

Might not be true.  Saw that at NSBB.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 09, 2013, 04:32:37 pm
Did find something that said Gray has been a bit sick, but nothing about him being moved back. We should know by tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2013, 12:22:04 am
BA's first mock draft has it Appel-Gray,  1-2.

http://ht.ly/kSFPr
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2013, 04:00:17 pm
SI mock has Gray to Houston, Appel to the Cubs:

http://m.si.com/2903333/mlb-mock-draft-gray-looks-like-best-bet-at-no-1-for-now/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2013, 05:12:03 pm
A reminder that Gray's start is on ESPNU at 7 central.


Speaking of Gray, Baseball America has ranked him as the top prospect for the draft:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-100-draft-prospects-may-10-jonathan-gray-tops-mark-appel-for-top-sot/


Here's a BP scouting profile on Gray as well:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20538&mode=print&nocache=1368206047
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on May 10, 2013, 05:19:06 pm
Quote
A reminder that Gray's start is on ESPNU at 7 central.

What, and miss the Human Element behind the dish?  And the Cubs and Nationals, too, of course.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 10, 2013, 07:08:49 pm
Grey is pitching tomorrow aftenoon on fox sports
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2013, 07:26:22 pm
Nice of OU to do that again.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 10, 2013, 10:33:21 pm
Appel really struggled against one of the better teams in the country tonight, Oregon State, getting knocked out after an awful 5th inning.

5-6-6-5-5-4, HB

He threw more than 100 pitches.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 11, 2013, 10:25:02 am
This is totally groundless, and I don't know anything.  But Appel gives me something of a Jackson/Garza feel.  Throws fast, and seems to have the stuff that you'd expect would add up to being an above-average pitcher.  But nothing really exceptional, and somehow doesn't often pitch to the perceived tools?  If you're going for a pitcher with the 2nd pick, a heavily worked pitcher who's probably going to be shot physically within some years, I'd like to get a guy who's going to be really, really good during whatever healthy years you get out of him.  I suppose getting 3-5 years of Garza or Jackson level pitching might still qualify as a "success" for a draft pick.  But getting a 2- or 3+ rotation guy, or less, that's not going to lift the Cubs to a championship level.  I wonder if Appel really has enough "ace" potential to waste a #2 pick on a pitcher? 

With Baez looking like he's not going to hit, Brett jackson being bust, and Soler being the only bat in the system that looks to have any chance of being a star hitter, the offense looks like it will continue to struggle. 

If one of the hitters looks like the real deal, I wonder if getting a bat might not make a lot more sense. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 11, 2013, 11:46:00 am
and I don't know anything. 

Curt - is that you?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 11, 2013, 12:19:05 pm
This is totally groundless, and I don't know anything.  But....

My favorite kind of post.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 11, 2013, 12:20:45 pm
Rogers on the draft:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-mark-appel-20130511,0,2590428.story

Bryant does look pretty impressive.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 11, 2013, 01:46:27 pm
Curt - is that you?
I don't understand.  I never say anything insulting about YOU!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 02:19:44 pm
Gray needs to get to the majors where there are at least some competent umpires. Got utterly hosed on the first batter of the game and was charged with a walk that shouldn't have been. He'd pick that guy off with a super-quick move, get a bouncer to second, and then finish with a K on a great, fading change.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 02:43:30 pm
Gray hasn't really been his dominant self lately and that's continuing. He's looked a bit out of sorts and had a rough 2nd inning. He hit the leadoff batter in the back on 2-2 and then gave up a 3-1 double. He rung up the next two on strikes but a nice piece of hitting resulted in a double off the RF line. He recorded his 4th K to end the inning. Thrown a lot of pitches.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 03:14:04 pm
Gray's just off today for some reason. Walked the leadoff hitter in the 4th after missing badly with two breaking balls. Got squeezed two batters later and issued another walk. Got out of it with a DP. He's in the 80-pitch range already.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 03:33:37 pm
Gray retires the first two quickly in the 5th. The next two hitters both fall behind 0-2 but reach on flare and seeing-eye singles. A line single to center follows to plate another run.

Very frustrating start for Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 03:37:41 pm
Only issue I have with Gray is that he just doesn't miss the amount of bats he should with his FB. To me that's the one thing that slightly separates him from pitchers like Strasburg and Prior.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 03:44:33 pm
Gray's day is done:  5-6-3-3-3-8, HB  108 pitches


Three soft hits in there, one walk that should've been a strikeout, but he was definitely inconsistent.



Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 11, 2013, 03:48:32 pm
Chris, I understand that concern.  How does he pitch in the summer in wood bat leagues?  Do you have any stats on that?  It might even be worse.

In theory, college coaches pitchers to pitch away from contact, because the aluminum bats favor the hitter if the bat can be put on the ball.  In wood bat leagues during the summers, kids learn to pitch TO contact, because learning how to saw off bats and fool guys into grounding weakly rather than have the bat produce screaming liners.

Do we have any data from summer ball leagues?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 11, 2013, 03:57:54 pm
Do we have any data from summer ball leagues?

I think I have seen reports that he has not played in any summer leagues.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 04:23:26 pm
No, he hasn't pitch in summer leagues before.

Gray just doesn't appear to have a lot of deception. A little bit more of that and I'd put him in the Prior/Strasburg category.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 11, 2013, 04:34:52 pm
Gray was sick earlier in the week, wasn't he?  That might account for his poor showing today.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 11, 2013, 04:42:38 pm
He supposedly had strep throat, but he looked perfectly healthy being interviewed last night and seemed fine today.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 11, 2013, 05:06:02 pm
I don't understand.  I never say anything insulting about YOU!

I can see you don't read your own posts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 11, 2013, 05:51:19 pm
This is totally groundless, and I don't know anything.  But Appel gives me something of a Jackson/Garza feel.  Throws fast, and seems to have the stuff that you'd expect would add up to being an above-average pitcher.  But nothing really exceptional, and somehow doesn't often pitch to the perceived tools?  If you're going for a pitcher with the 2nd pick, a heavily worked pitcher who's probably going to be shot physically within some years, I'd like to get a guy who's going to be really, really good during whatever healthy years you get out of him.  I suppose getting 3-5 years of Garza or Jackson level pitching might still qualify as a "success" for a draft pick.  But getting a 2- or 3+ rotation guy, or less, that's not going to lift the Cubs to a championship level.  I wonder if Appel really has enough "ace" potential to waste a #2 pick on a pitcher? 

With Baez looking like he's not going to hit, Brett jackson being bust, and Soler being the only bat in the system that looks to have any chance of being a star hitter, the offense looks like it will continue to struggle. 

If one of the hitters looks like the real deal, I wonder if getting a bat might not make a lot more sense. 

I don't think there are many scouts who don't believe Appel has "really, really" good stuff.  Consistent 93-96 velocity and 2 exceptional offspeed pitches, plus far better command than Jackson types.  Might he get injured the first time he pitches in 2014?  Sure - he's a pitcher.  But if you're going to take a pitcher, Appel isn't one you pass on because he doesn't have ace stuff.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 11, 2013, 05:52:45 pm
I can see you don't read your own posts.
I have me on Ignore.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 11, 2013, 06:15:45 pm
I can see you don't read your own posts.

Truth is not an insult....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 13, 2013, 08:28:29 am
Ryne Sandberg has a nephew ranked #40 in BA's Top 100 list for the draft.  Maybe we'll give him a look in the second round.

Quote
40. Cord Sandberg, of

Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla.

Sandberg’s timing is excellent. He’s an athlete with size and power potential in a draft class where such players are in short supply. Crosscheckers who have seen both players compare Sandberg to Georgia prep outfielder Austin Meadows physically, and many of Sandberg’s tools are on par with those of Meadows, who entered the year as the No. 1 prep player in the country. Sandberg has a quarterback’s build at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and he committed to Mississippi State for football after throwing for 2,674 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. The football commitment could complicate signability for Sandberg, but he’s believed to want to play pro baseball. His father Chuck played at Florida and also played minor league baseball in the Red Sox system, though he also was a prep football coach for more than 20 years. Sandberg’s two-sport history has curtailed his baseball experience, and it shows in his instincts and defense. He profiles best in left field but has a chance to stick in center if he learns better reads and jumps to go with his average speed. Sandberg shows plenty of strength and raw power as well as bat speed, and scouts credit him for making strides with his hitting approach this spring. He’s expected to go out in the second or third round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2013, 03:12:24 pm
This has come up at some other sites (and maybe here too?) but curious about what folks may think about trading for the Royals competitive balance pick (#34 overall), perhaps in a DeJesus deal to KC? 

DeJesus-to-KC has been mentioned a few times already, as it makes a whole lot of sense for the Royals.  My thinking is that DeJesus is worth somewhat more than just the #34 pick alone. Seems like Theo/Hoyer like some of the pitching prospects available at #41 would really like to get two guys instead of just one.

In any case, a deal along those lines would, of course, have to be made in the next few weeks.  With Ryan Sweeney starting to get some playing time, makes me wonder.  Thoughts?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 13, 2013, 03:13:17 pm
Sounds like a good deal to me.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 13, 2013, 03:30:58 pm
I would trade DeJesus for that pick without a second thought.  All the free agents that had trouble signing because of a compensation pick indicate how valuable they are considered right now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 13, 2013, 04:00:17 pm
I'd like to get more than just a pick for DeJesus but if that's the best they can do, I say take it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: chgojhawk on May 13, 2013, 04:03:48 pm
If you look at the hesitancy of teams to sign free agents due to the compensation picks I would suggest that the #34 pick is far more than KC would be willing to give up.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 13, 2013, 04:45:33 pm
I would also do that trade in an instant.  If you're scouting and developing right, you could get a very significant prospect at 34. 

No way you're going to get a proven very good minor league prospect for DeJesus. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: PRCubFan on May 13, 2013, 04:51:07 pm
Question on trading for a pick - do teams also get the slot for that pick? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2013, 04:52:58 pm
If you look at the hesitancy of teams to sign free agents due to the compensation picks I would suggest that the #34 pick is far more than KC would be willing to give up.

The comp that I would point out is that Pirates gave up pick #35 to get Gaby Sanchez from the Marlins last season (plus teams exchanged marginal prospects).  Seems to me that DeJesus is worth at least as much as Gaby Sanchez.

Free agents and draft compensation is a bit different because those moves happen in the off-season.  When deals are made during the season, it's often the case that clubs view themselves as contenders and are adjusting to what they perceive as an urgent need to fill, such as what DeJesus would do for the Royals right now.   

Yes, the club gets the slot money. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 13, 2013, 07:15:58 pm
Was the new labor agreement in effect last year?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 13, 2013, 07:18:47 pm
I would certainly make that deal in a heartbeat.  I have my doubts KC would.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on May 13, 2013, 08:26:25 pm
Are there any restrictions on when a competitive balance pick can be traded, or could such a trade be made on draft day, or even up until the the pick is on the clock and the available remaining candidates are known to both teams?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: brjones on May 13, 2013, 08:39:43 pm
If all DeJesus can get you is the #34 draft pick, just keep him.  No need to rush to trade him.  He can probably get a real prospect (as opposed to a crapshoot draft pick) at the deadline...and if not, just pick up his option and you still have the option of trading him next year.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2013, 08:41:02 pm
Are there any restrictions on when a competitive balance pick can be traded, or could such a trade be made on draft day, or even up until the the pick is on the clock and the available remaining candidates are known to both teams?

That's a really good question. Doubt that there any limitations like that but just guessing. The Gaby Sanchez deal was made at trade deadline, so not sure why a date in June would be off limits.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 13, 2013, 09:26:18 pm
According to ArizonaPhil, competitive draft picks are the only draft picks that can be traded, and they can only be traded during the season, which effectively means from opening day until the day of the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2013, 09:38:47 pm
According to ArizonaPhil, competitive draft picks are the only draft picks that can be traded, and they can only be traded during the season, which effectively means from opening day until the day of the draft.

The Gaby Sanchez deal was on July 31---the compensation pick coming the next season (2013).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 13, 2013, 10:00:56 pm
They can only be traded from when they are announced who won the lottery to the end of the regular season.  During the off season you can not trade them until the start of the regular season until some point before the the draft.  They can only be traded by the team that won the lottery.  The IFA money can't be traded until the start of the IFA season.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on May 14, 2013, 11:55:12 am
PR, it is my understanding that the slot money comes along with the pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: PRCubFan on May 14, 2013, 01:53:55 pm
Has anyone seen Kris Bryant play?  A friend of a friend saw him play and he thinks the guy can be a superstar hitter.  If he could stick at 3rd base, I'd have to think long and hard about taking him.  I've been hoping we take Gray or Appel, but I really like the idea of having three really powerful sluggers in a Cubs lineup with Rizzo, Soler, and Bryant (3 guys with 30-40 HR power potential - hopefully we can add Baez to that group as well).  Then load up on pitching the rest of the draft and with international signings.  Anyway, just a thought since I'm sure the Cubs will take one of the two pitchers. 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130512&content_id=47315710&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 14, 2013, 02:01:59 pm
I wouldn't have a problem taking Bryant at all, from what little I've been able to gather.

We might even be able to save some money on slot to spend on the rest of the draft if we took him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 14, 2013, 02:07:30 pm
His high K percentage is something of a red flag.  At this point, I prefer Appel or Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2013, 02:20:16 pm
His high K percentage is something of a red flag.  At this point, I prefer Appel or Gray.

I read that a lot but Bryant has 35 Ks in 253 PAs so far this season--which doesn't seem like that much of a problem.

Ryan Braun had 39 Ks in 262 PAs his final season at Miami.

Bryant is batting .346.  You would expect an elite college prospect to bat closer to .380 (like Braun did).  Maybe that's a red flag but the guy has a ridiculous 56 walks.  2/3 of his hits are extras. 

Keith Law projects Bryant as a .250-260 hitter.  So, assuming that for sake of discussion, you'd need a heck of a lot of homers and walks to get the OPS you want.

You would think that the Theo bunch would really like a huge homer/walk guy like Bryant, whether at 3B or OF.  So, while I expect Appel/Gray, I'm not going to be shocked if they nab Bryant and I wouldn't have a big problem with that because it would tell me that our smart front office folks really love the guy and I'm more than willing to trust their judgment on something like this.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 14, 2013, 02:20:19 pm
Law thinks Bryant will eventually be a RFer.

He can definitely rake. I wouldn't lose a minute of sleep if he was the choice.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 14, 2013, 02:21:57 pm
Braun and Bryant used bats that are miles apart in terms of performance. Not a fair comparison...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 14, 2013, 03:40:42 pm
I agree that Bryant's K rate isn't bad, now that I have actually gone over the numbers.  The other issue I have is the quality of competition.  How does the quality of competition that he sees compare with that in the Pac 12 or Big 12? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 14, 2013, 04:19:43 pm
Competition not as good---you raise a good point.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 14, 2013, 04:39:10 pm
The guy who blogs about minor leaguers and other prospects for Bleacher Nation reports that Jim Callis gives Bryant's power an 80 grade, and he (the blogger, Luke) advocates for Bryant. Personally, I hope they draft Gray if possible, but like others, would be very happy with Bryant:

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/05/14/cubs-minor-league-daily-drafting-an-80/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 14, 2013, 05:43:00 pm
I don't want to pass on Appel and Gray to get someone who turns out to be an AAAA player.  I really don't care how far Bryant can hit the ball but rather whether he will be a top tier thirdbaseman or right fielder.  It seems likely to me that Appel and Gray will at worst become solid middle of the order ML starters.  I'm not nearly as confident that Bryant will become a top tier ML hitter.   As things currently stand, I strongly lean towards Appel/Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 14, 2013, 06:54:34 pm
It's the defense that's my biggest concern with Bryant, as there are legit concerns about whether he can stick at 3B.  If he can't, no way he's worth taking over Appel or Gray as I don't see him as a true superstar hitter.  That's more likely to be Frazier.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 14, 2013, 10:48:07 pm
I think you have to take the pitcher that has top-of-the-rotation potential over a hitter in this draft because the two pitchers are far and away the two best prospects available.

If any of the position players were closer to them, I could see taking one over Gray or Appel but there's a pretty wide gap from what I understand.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2013, 07:22:54 am
It seems likely to me that Appel and Gray will at worst become solid middle of the order ML starters.

So Appel and Gray are somehow immune for injury which prevents them from ever reaching the majors, or from hanging around the majors long enough to amount to anything if they do?

Well, in that case their stock does go way up.

The "at worst" for pitching prospects needs to include the roughly 25-40% of the time when they don't make it anywhere other than a minor league training room or a surgeon's table.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 16, 2013, 08:18:19 am
Jes, look up the definition of "likely".
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 16, 2013, 11:08:39 am
Keith Law's latest mock:

1  Jonathan Gray   POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 239 School: Oklahoma   

Analysis: The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel, then applying the savings to later picks where they might sign players to bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations.

There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the
top of Houston's internal analytics.


Besides Gray and Moran, Mark Appel and perhaps Kris Bryant all seem to be in consideration, and maybe (but probably not) Clint Frazier. If last year is any guide, the Astros won't make a final decision until a few hours or even minutes before the pick.
 
  2  Mark Appel   POS: RHP HT: 6-5 WT: 215 School: Stanford   

Analysis:
This is Appel or Gray, assuming one of them goes first, with Appel the preference. The Cubs are in the catbird seat in this draft -- they don't have to pay the premium that comes with picking first overall but are guaranteed to get one of the two huge arms in the class.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 16, 2013, 02:28:04 pm
Bryant is head and shoulders above any other bat in the draft, in my eyes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2013, 04:04:00 pm
Jes, look up the definition of "likely".

Without arguing over definitions, let me just run thru the draft picks since 1992 (picked because I already happened to have baseball-reference.com opened there) thru 2008, 16 drafts.  And I will only look at pitchers taken in the top 3 picks because those taken lower than that at not liekly to be comparable to Gray or Apple, but it is likely any pitcher taken that high in the draft in any other season likely was rated roughly comparably, with some perhaps more promising prospects and others less so.

1992 --  2nd pick -- Paul Shuey ended up a middle reliever (0 major league starts and only 23 saves)
............. 3rd pick -- B.J. Wallace never reached the majors

1993 -- 2nd pick -- Darren Dreifort 3 full seasons and 2 half seasons as decent 4th or 5th starter
............. 3rd pick -- Brian Anderson 3 years as a solid 4th or 5th starter

1994 -- 3rd pick -- Dustin Hermanson 1 year of ace performance, 4 years as a solid 4th or 5th, and the reso of the time as a middle reliever or swingman.

1995 -- no pitchers in the 1st 3 picks, Kerry Wood as 4th pick, and much as we love him, Wood only performed as even arguably as an ace starter 2 years.

1996 -- 1st pick -- Kris Benson 7 yrs as a 4th or 5th starter and 1 as a decent #2
........... 3rd pick -- Braden Looper 9 yrs middle relief and 3 years as a decent 4th or 5th starter

1997 -- 1st pick -- Matt Anderson career middle reliever (1 year as a poor closer)

1998 -- 2nd pick -- Mark Mulder 3 years as a genuine ace starter, another as a good #2 and 3 more years as a mid rotation starter

1999 -- 2nd pick -- Josh Beckett 5 years as a genuine ace and several others as a good mid rotation starter

2000 -- 2nd pick -- Adam Johnson -- 26 total major league innings

2001 -- 2nd pick -- Mark Prior history too familiar to mention
........ -- 3rd pick -- Dewon Brazelton 1 year as a decent #4 and a couple others as a horrible middle reliever, career ERA+ of 70

2002 --1st pick -- Bryan Bullington 10 career starts and 81 total major league innings
........ -- 3rd pick -- Chris Gruler never reached the majors

2003 -- 3rd pick -- Kyle Sleeth never reached the majors

2004 -- 2nd pick -- Justin Verlander -- true ace
........ -- 3rd pick -- Phillip Humber  1 yr as an acceptable #2 starter but 7 other seasons largely in relief when he was so bad his career ERA+ was 81

2005 -- no pitchers in 1st 5 picks

2006 -- 1st pick -- Luke Hochevar 5 years as a 5th starter, and only 2 of them as a tolerable 5th, career ERA+ of 80
........ -- 2nd pick -- Greg Reynolds 16 career starts and 11 relief games with a career ERA+ of a frightening 63

2007 --  1st pick -- David Price 2 genuine ace years as a starter, and 2 others as a solid mid-rotation starter, though this year he is performing about like Jackson for us.

2008 -- no pitchers in 1st 3 rounds

So, after looking at the actual results of pitchers taken in the 1st 3 picks, I think it is more than a bit optimistic to believe that "Appel and Gray will at worst become solid middle of the order ML starters."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 16, 2013, 05:07:50 pm
So you think it's unlikely that Appel and Grey will become at least middle of the rotation ML starters.  Fair enough.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 16, 2013, 05:37:52 pm
There is a very good chance that anyone that is picked will not live up to their projected ceilings.  And that probability is probably a little higher if the selection is a pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on May 16, 2013, 06:25:16 pm
My thinking is that the ceilings on Appel and Gray are that they could become aces.  It would be real disappointing if they end up bottom of the rotation starters or non MLers assuming no major injuries.  That's why I would take either of them before Bryant as things now stand.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 16, 2013, 06:46:10 pm
Bryant is head and shoulders above any other bat in the draft, in my eyes.

Get some glasses, and take a look at Frazier!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on May 16, 2013, 08:43:28 pm
I have.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2013, 08:44:26 pm
So you think it's unlikely that Appel and Grey will become at least middle of the rotation ML starters.  Fair enough.

To me "at least middle of the rotation" means an ERA+ relatively close to 100, or better -- relatively close to being league average.  A decent to good 4th or 5th starter is back of the rotation, and would have an ERA+ of 80 to 95.  A #2 starter would have an ERA+ of 110-125, and an ERA+ of 125 or better is an ace starter.

The numbers: 21 pitchers taken in one of the first three picks from 1992 to 2008.
3 of the 21 never reached the majors (B.J. Wallace, Chris Gruler and Kyle Sleeth)
5 others reached the majors, but had 16 of fewer career starts (Paul Shuey,  Matt Anderson, Adam Johnson, Bryan Bullington, Greg Reynolds)
3 had one or two seasons as a tolerable to good starter and the rest of their careers were truly bad (Phillip Humber, Luke Hochevar, Dewon Brazelton)
2 were decent mid rotation starters for at least two years but never performed at ace level (Darren Dreifort, Braden Looper)
3 reached the majors and had at least one season of ace status or good #2 performance status, but the rest of their career were never above mid-rotation starters and some of them were utterly terrible other than their one good season (Brian Anderson, Dustin Hermanson, Kris Benson)
5 actual ace starters for two or more season (Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, Mark Prior, Justin Verlander, David Price) (And it is rather generous to put Prior in there.)

So the only way you get to the mathematical probability of "likely" is if you start counting draft picks such as Phillip Humber, Luke Hochevar and Dewon Brazelton as being "at least middle of the rotation ML starters.

If that level of performance is satisfactory, then, yes, it is likely that Gray and Apple will "likely" reach it.  But if a performance at that level would be considered troublingly under-performing for a #2 draft pick, then taking a pitcher might not be the best way to go.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 16, 2013, 08:46:06 pm
My thinking is that the ceilings on Appel and Gray are that they could become aces.

Weren't ALL of those pitchers I listed who were taken in one of the top 3 picks in the draft expected to be aces?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on May 16, 2013, 09:38:06 pm
I wouldn't say that all those guys were expected to be aces.  To me it really seems like Appel and Gray have more hype than most of those guys listed.  Seems like Prior and Strasburg(who went top 3 in 2009; I'd say he qualifies as an ace) were the hype kings on that list.  I'd put Appel and Gray at a small level below them, slightly above or maybe equal to Price.  Granted, this is going off of memory, but a lot of those guys I was pretty unfamiliar with when they were drafted.  To me, an ace level pitcher is going to get a  lot of air time in college.

Odds are one of Appel/Gray probably busts, but considering you pretty much have to take a pitcher in the first round if you want to find an ace, I think it's a worthwhile gamble for the Cubs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 16, 2013, 10:03:02 pm
Anderson and Shuey were draft as relievers. 
Hochevar and Reynolds were considered reaches at the time.

Some of the other guys I'm just not familiar with so for starting prospects in the top 3 that were draft for talent (I'll assume the rest weren't reaches) it is 17.

3 never reach the majors. (17%)
2 have one good season (11%)
2 are mid-rotation starters (11%)
3 had a #2 season and were mid-roation the rest of their career (17%)
5 are aces (29%)

Historically a 57% chance of getting at least a mid-rotation starter.  This of course assumes they're weren't any reaches and the talent of the other 17 are equal to Grey, Appel.  While I wouldn't put Grey and Appel in the Prior, Strausburg, Price (to a lesser extent) level of prospect.  I'm quite sure they are better talents than most of those 17.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 17, 2013, 12:35:17 pm
Interesting and helpful data on the success and health of pitchers.

Certainly is an interesting draft, as the consensus seems to be dynamic (that is, 3 weeks ago it seemed like Appel/Gray were the only two options for 1-1, but Bryant seems to have worked his way into the conversation, while Frazier has, for whatever reason, dropped out). I know I've read too much about all three top college guys, and can't say I have a clear preference. But I guess I'm risk adverse at the top, so like Bryant, even though Gray has the most exciting upside, by far.

Anyone have an informed opinion as to when a team locks in their draft board? Can this weekend's games change how the Cubs view Gray and Appel and Bryant, or do you think their rankings are set?

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on May 17, 2013, 01:44:26 pm
2013 Top 250 Draft Prospects (May 17): Jonathan Gray Takes Top Spot


Rank   Player, Pos., Team
1   Jonathan Gray, rhp, Oklahoma
2   Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford
3   Kris Bryant, 3b/of, San Diego
4   Clint Frazier, of, Loganville (Ga.) HS
5   Austin Meadows, of, Grayson HS, Loganville, Ga.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/ (http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 17, 2013, 08:55:34 pm
Jonathan Gray was way off again tonite while facing the third best hitting team in the nation, Kansas State. He somehow pitched his way to 5 shutout innings before a slew of singles plated 3 in the 6th. He gave up another run in the 7th before leaving.


6-1/3 -9-4-4-1-3 , 2 HB
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 17, 2013, 10:19:58 pm
Wow, Kansas State is the third best hitting team in the country?  Huh.  I never would've guessed that if you gave me a hundred guesses and no internet access.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 17, 2013, 11:32:25 pm
Mark Appel had a very similar outing but with a slew of strikeouts.

7-9-5-5-1-11, HB, HR

Don't have the exact number but he threw at least 110 pitches.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 18, 2013, 05:51:48 am
Appel and Gray have both leveled off quite a bit lately.  Tired arms, perhaps.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 18, 2013, 06:28:23 am
Appel and Gray have both leveled off quite a bit lately.  Tired arms, perhaps.

Of course if either were drafted by the Cubs and five years from now performed that way in a playoff game it would clearly be because they were chokers who couldn't deal with the stress of the curse....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 18, 2013, 08:11:38 am
Appel and Gray have both leveled off quite a bit lately.  Tired arms, perhaps.

Tired arms in May pitching on a 7-day rotation.  How quickly might they have tired arms pitching as pros in a 5-day rotation? 

It's one of the reasons I think that pro pitchers are routinely slower than their college reported velocities.  And why I wonder how great Appel really is, if he's maxing at "only" 97 and working mostly in the 91-95 range in college on 7-day rest.  As a pro on 5-day rest, won't he probably be slower than that? You can be a very good pitcher working in the low-90's and sometimes touching upper 90's, absolutely.  But if he's to become an ace, it may require that it's more by exceptional control and movement and anti-mistake consistency than because his velocity is exceptionally good. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 19, 2013, 12:03:57 am
I wonder if maybe these guys are going at less than 100% as they get ready for the big tournaments that are coming up soon.  Is it possible that they're conserving their energy and intensity for big games later in the year or is that just me just trying to rationalize a couple of mediocre outings in a row?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on May 21, 2013, 10:07:20 am
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 20m
Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea was pulled from today's game due to injury before throwing a pitch.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 21, 2013, 10:15:54 am
That is strange.  Normally that wouldn't happen until the day after the Cubs drafted him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 21, 2013, 10:20:00 am
No, Dave.  After the Cubs SIGNED him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on May 21, 2013, 10:36:42 am
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 20m
Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea was pulled from today's game due to injury before throwing a pitch.

If Law wasn't there in person, he can't know what he's talking about.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 21, 2013, 12:06:11 pm
Maybe Manaea will be available at # 41.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 21, 2013, 03:42:43 pm
If Law wasn't there in person, he can't know what he's talking about.

ZING!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 21, 2013, 03:53:57 pm
Law will tweet instructions to Dr. Andrews on how to perform surgery on Manea, based on a youtube clip Law watched of Tommmy John pitching pre and then post surgery.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on May 21, 2013, 05:45:01 pm
Fearless prediction: if Manaea lasts 'til pick #41, he won't last 'til pick #42.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 21, 2013, 07:15:20 pm
Kendall Rodgers tweeted Manea had shoulder stiffness.  If he goes into free fall I doubt he gets past 41 with the Astros or past the Yankees with their multiple comp picks.  If the Cubs want him I would guess they're going to have to trade for a comp pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on May 22, 2013, 01:53:24 pm
Cubs top officials meet with Oklahoma's Gray

http://blogs.suntimes.com/cubs/2013/05/chicago_cubs_top_officials_meet_with_o.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 23, 2013, 12:23:59 am
From Jim Callis chat:

Dan (Work): How would you set the odds on who goes #1 overall between Appel, Bryant, Grey, the rest of the field?

Jim Callis: Gray 37%, Appel 35%, Bryant 28%, the field 0%.


The field at 0% seems a bit low (maybe Frazier or Moran at a bargain price?) but kind of interesting that Bryant with that kind of chance in Callis' eyes.

We may never know, but I wonder--between Gray and Appel--if Cubs will strongly prefer one over the other.  We kind of assume now that it's super close but who knows.  Maybe not automatic that Cubs take the guy that's left if Astros take the one Cubs may strongly prefer.  Then, Bryant could come into the picture for Cubs.

Seems like Astros will cut a deal with somebody pre-draft, right?  Hard to see how they take Appel without a deal, given all the complications as a senior sign and Boras.  Going to be a bit surprised if Appel isn't there for the Cubs if they want him. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 23, 2013, 04:10:39 am
Everything I've heard says they want him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 23, 2013, 11:47:29 am
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

Study on age for HS hitter draftees.   

I've noticed over the years that the Cubs tend to draft towards oldish HS hitters.  The article notes that Dunston was really old when drafted (for a HS pick), months past his 19th birthday.  Corey Patterson and Ryan Harvey were both oldies too, turned 19 during their draft summer. 

Baez and Vogelbach were both slightly on the old side, both turned 19 in draft year December. 

Almora was relatively young, with an April birthday. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 23, 2013, 12:09:19 pm
Vitters was quite young too, wasn't he?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: chgojhawk on May 23, 2013, 03:07:18 pm
Just watched Gray pitch the opening round of the Big XII tourney.  Reminds me of Prior (the healthy one) in many ways.  Wears #22.  Throws without great effort.  Wears the socks high.  Similar build (without the monster calves).

Not sure of his exact line, but he started with 6 straight pitches out of the zone.  Settled down after that.  He threw a complete game shutout and had 12 Ks.  I think he allowed 2 hits but it may have been 3.  OU won 2-0.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 23, 2013, 03:33:25 pm
Vitters was quite young too, wasn't he?
Yes, very.  17 at draft, didn't turn 18 till August that summer. 


jhawk, thanks for observations on Gray. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 23, 2013, 07:16:58 pm
Gray: 9-3-0-0-1-12

Apparently, Epstein and Hoyer were on hand.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 23, 2013, 07:23:00 pm
The Astros will be thrilled.

Quote
Baylor coach Steve Smith on Jonathan Gray: “He can just pitch. He reminds me of (Roger) Clemens because of his three-pitch command."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 24, 2013, 12:33:35 am
Quote
“He reminds me — because of his three-pitch command and just the command of the game — he honestly reminds me of (Roger) Clemens,” Baylor coach Steve Smith said. “I’m going back a long time. He’s really good, and it’ll be interesting to see which one of those two guys goes first, him or the guy at Stanford (pitcher Mark Appel). I think either way, you’re making a pretty safe pick.”

“The way the game started, I wondered, ‘OK, maybe he’s not a midday guy.’ But he settled down, and it looked like to me both he and the catcher really worked the game well together. He got into a good rhythm, a good flow, and just pitched. You have a guy with three-pitch command with the velocity he’s got, it’s not all about the velocity. If all he had was the velocity, it’d be different, but he’s got good slider command and good change-up command.”
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 24, 2013, 10:46:00 am
I'm so glad that I don't have to pick between Grey and Appel.  I love Grey's upside and Appel's closeness to the majors.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 24, 2013, 06:52:49 pm
Callis mock #2:

Quote
1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston has narrowed its field to five: the top two college pitchers (Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray and Stanford’s Mark Appel), the top two college bats (San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran) and a fifth option, presumed to be Georgia high school outfielder Clint Frazier.

Rumors persist that the Astros might prefer to redistribute bonus-pool money by striking a deal with one of the hitters, and owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow have been spotted scouting Moran. Most industry sources, however, continue to believe the choice will come down to Gray or Appel, whom Houston also considered with the No. 1 pick last year. They’re close enough in talent that asking price could be a deciding factor, though either will command significantly more than the $4.8 million Carlos Correa got as the top choice in 2013.

PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray (Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel).

2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago is looking at the same four college players that Houston is evaluating. The Cubs have an acute need for pitching and have had scouting eyes on Appel and Gray throughout the spring. It’s not clear whom they would prefer between Gray and Appel if the Astros opt for a hitter.

PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel (Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 24, 2013, 11:22:35 pm
Mark Appel was excellent tonite in possibly his last college game:

8-3-1-1-2-9, HB,  122 pitches

Of the three hits against, one was a bunt single and another an infield single.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 24, 2013, 11:31:34 pm
Appel:  10-4, 2.12 ERA,  106-1/3 IP, 80 H, 23 BB, 130 K,  .202 BAA

Gray:   9-2, 1.55 ERA,  110 IP, 69 H, 21 BB, 127 K,  .181 BAA
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 25, 2013, 01:56:31 am
Callis asks four anonymous execs which pitcher they'd take, and three choose Appel:

Quote
American League scouting director: “I would probably take Appel only because of the track record, but I saw Gray so good this spring. He touched 98 [mph] and the slider was very good. He was dominating. In the fourth inning I realized, ‘I don’t need to be here.’ You could get either one and be thrilled.”

AL executive: “I’d take Appel. Appel has a little more secondary stuff. The only factor is you have to look a little deeper into his makeup. Gray is a warrior. I’m not sure on Appel. Stuff-wise, Appel has a changeup now and two breaking balls that he throws for strikes. That’s more versatile than Gray’s power slider.”

National League executive: “I’d take Appel because of his pitchabilty. I think he’s a better pitch-maker than Gray. Their stuff is very similar. Appel does it better than Gray does it. I’d take [Kris] Bryant over both of them. You don’t get too many chances at a special bat.”

NL executive: “I’d take Gray over Appel. The difference right now is that Appel’s delivery is more refined but Gray is a better athlete. Gray kind of has been a late developer and he still has got to get better with his breaking ball. Appel presently has a better breaking ball, but Gray’s has as good or more bite when it’s on. Gray has a bigger arm velocity-wise. In the end, I’m going with the guy I think will have better stuff and better makeup, and that’s Gray.”
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on May 25, 2013, 04:16:58 pm
Here are a couple of international guys Baseball America believes the Cubs may be in on July 2.

Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic (video): At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, Jimenez is a righthanded hitter with similarities to Royals outfielder Elier Hernandez, who signed with the Royals for $3 million in 2011 and, like Jimenez, also trained with Amaurys Nina. Jimenez, who plays in the International Prospect League, has a strong, projectable body, a quick bat and a swing path that results more in hard line drives than loft power, although like Hernandez, some scouts haven’t seen him dominate in games. He’s run above-average times in the 60-yard dash when he’s at his best, but he projects as a corner outfielder. Expectations are that his bonus will be the highest in this year’s class, perhaps in the $2.6-$2.8 million range, with the Cubs the heavy favorite to sign him.

Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela: Some scouts think Torres, who trains with Ciro Barrios, is the best prospect in Venezuela this year. Torres’ frame (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) doesn’t offer much projection but he’s a steady player with present skills. Scouts highest on Torres see a righthanded hitter who can stay at shortstop with good hands, a strong arm and the ability to hit in games with projectable power that’s surprising for his size, although some think he might fit better at second or third base. The Cubs have a history of signing players from Barrios, including third baseman Mark Malave for $1.6 million in 2011, and they are the frontrunners to sign Torres, probably for comparable money to Malave.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 25, 2013, 05:05:06 pm
Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic (video): At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, Jimenez is a righthanded hitter with similarities to Royals outfielder Elier Hernandez, who signed with the Royals for $3 million in 2011 and, like Jimenez, also trained with Amaurys Nina. Jimenez, who plays in the International Prospect League, has a strong, projectable body, a quick bat and a swing path that results more in hard line drives than loft power

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=foP1xu5X1pM#!

The bat speed just doesn't seem to be all that impressive.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 27, 2013, 04:10:20 pm
Watching some of the SEC championship game, they were discussing how offense in college is down since the switch to composite bats. Especially impacted were home run rates.

 This article argues that Kris Bryant's power this year is that much more impressive, given the new bats (one guy sited in the article claims that data suggests if he were using the old bats, Bryant would have hit 68 homers this year...hmmmm). I wonder then, too, if those bats contribute to pitchers having better numbers too.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/college_baseball/2013/05/kris_bryants_30_hr_season_with_composite_bat_is_epic
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 27, 2013, 05:22:08 pm
Watching some of the SEC championship game, they were discussing how offense in college is down since the switch to composite bats. Especially impacted were home run rates.

 This article argues that Kris Bryant's power this year is that much more impressive, given the new bats (one guy sited in the article claims that data suggests if he were using the old bats, Bryant would have hit 68 homers this year...hmmmm). I wonder then, too, if those bats contribute to pitchers having better numbers too.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/college_baseball/2013/05/kris_bryants_30_hr_season_with_composite_bat_is_epic

Dave23 pointed this out--about the bats and Bryant--last week.  A good point to keep in mind. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 27, 2013, 09:05:51 pm
Indeed he did Reb. I meant to mention it. Favorite quote from the article:

"Through Sunday, Bryant had outhomered 227 of 296 teams in Division I"

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 27, 2013, 09:14:15 pm
Surprised no one's accused him of PEDs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 27, 2013, 09:29:27 pm
Betcha that kid's on roids, man.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 27, 2013, 09:51:51 pm
Bryant's going to the Rockies and he'll hit a ton of homers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 28, 2013, 03:15:25 am
Stanford did not make the NCAA tourney so Appel's career is over.

Oklahoma is a 2-seed and will play Friday likely with Gray on the mound.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on May 28, 2013, 05:19:58 am
Not saying he's brittle, but that is three injuries for Almora already.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 28, 2013, 12:50:40 pm
Not saying he's brittle, but that is three injuries for Almora already.

If you are not saying it, and he has already had three injuries, let me say it.  He's brittle, or not durable, or injury-prone, or however you want to term it.  Hopefully that is something which has also registered with the front office and they work with him on conditioning and approach in order to reduce his time on the sidelines as his career progresses.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on May 28, 2013, 01:08:57 pm
I figured he'd be one of the more durable guys with his training regimen....although I doubt he does that anymore, so maybe not.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on May 28, 2013, 01:30:07 pm
The only significant Almora injury I recall is the broken hamate bone, which could happen to anyone. The bumps, bruises and strains are likely things he could have played through, but the Cubs have been appropriately cautious with him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 28, 2013, 01:43:28 pm
The only significant Almora injury I recall is the broken hamate bone, which could happen to anyone. The bumps, bruises and strains are likely things he could have played through, but the Cubs have been appropriately cautious with him.

Almost any injury could happen to almost anyone.  Despite that there are some players who spend very little time on the DL.  There are others who are regularly on the DL.  It is no great leap to believe that some players are simply more durable than most, and some players are less durable than most.  It is often a good idea to avoid relying on players who are on the less durable end of the spectrum.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 28, 2013, 02:44:44 pm
Quote
National League executive: “I’d take Appel because of his pitchabilty. I think he’s a better pitch-maker than Gray. Their stuff is very similar. Appel does it better than Gray does it. I’d take [Kris] Bryant over both of them. You don’t get too many chances at a special bat.”

If it's likely Bryant can hit for average and doesn't have a big hole in his swing, I'd be pretty close to agreeing with this NL guy.

If there's a safe, impact bat available, I honestly feel better about that than taking a pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 28, 2013, 04:00:34 pm
Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery.  Has he been on the DL any other time?  I don't remember if he was last season or not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 28, 2013, 04:27:20 pm
I've read in some places that Cubs may clearly prefer Appel over Gray.  Rank speculation of course but, if true, seems possible Cubs might go with Bryant over Gray, if Astros nab Appel. 

I have no opinion but would be interesting choice.  I suppose if Bryant can hit a ton no problem finding a place for him in a corner OF spot if he can't cut it at 3B. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Robb on May 28, 2013, 04:38:06 pm
I know it goes against most of the grain here but I actually prefer Bryant.  He is at a premium position, is hitting a ton and would move quickly.  An infield of Bryant, Castro, Baez and Rizzo could be absolutely dominant for many years to come.  Almora and Soler in the OF wouldn't suck either.  In this new non-steroid, non amphetamines era offense is tougher to find than pitching.  I would love to have five Sharks to run out there every day but with a top offense that isn't always necessary.  Could Bryant start at Daytona?  If so he would be right in line with the arrival of the rest of the impact talent the Cubs are trying to develop. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 28, 2013, 04:52:16 pm
Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery.  Has he been on the DL any other time?  I don't remember if he was last season or not.

I don't think so. 

They don't double-DL you, so when you injure yourself while already in rehab for a different disablement, it doesn't get listed separately. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 28, 2013, 07:25:48 pm
Bryant has elite power, but the question is his hit tool.  If he had an elite hit tool he would be without question the first pick in the draft.  I think Bryant ceiling is closer to Troy Glaus and his floor his closer to Pedro Alvarez in RF.  Both Grey and Apple could be a #1-2 starter.  The question is Bryant worth passing on them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on May 28, 2013, 08:22:29 pm
Only way I take Bryant 1st is if I think there's at worst a 75% chance that he can stick at 3rd and be at least anti-awful there.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on May 28, 2013, 11:01:42 pm
I don't think Bryant is close to as good a prospect as either Appel or Gray.  Both of those guys profile as #1 starters if they reach their potential and I think Bryant's ceiling is probably Mike Lowell with maybe a little more power and a lot less defense as a third baseman.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 29, 2013, 12:14:08 am
Kiley McDaniel's new mock has Appel to the Astros and Gray to the Cubs.

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1294726.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 29, 2013, 01:49:34 am
Seems to me that it's mostly guesswork what kind of comps are appropriate for Bryant.  I know that Keith Law projects him as a 250-255 hitter at best.  I think it would take a whole lot of eyeballing to have an educated guess about Bryant's contact rates as a pro.  I'm assuming that nobody here has actually eyeballed Bryant extensively this season.   

Colin Moran is supposed to be the best "pure" college bat but close to one-hundred Division I college hitters had a better BA than Moran's .357 and the majority of those guys are barely prospects, or non-prospects.  So, batting average contact-type stats are not too useful in assessing the "hit tool," I think.

We do know that Bryant hit a ton of homers and had a ton of walks and everybody universally says he has prodigious power.  He had 40 Ks in about 280 PAs.  (Moran had 1/2 the Ks).  Bryant's BABIP was .292, which seems kind of low for a guy who's been crushing the ball. Maybe he was a bit unlucky or maybe that number tells us a lot.  Bryant batted .340. I suppose close to two-hundred Division I guys did better than that.

So, the homers and walks are pretty obviously a big plus and the "hit tool" would seem to require a ton of extensive up-close scouting.....and then an educated guess. 

Just seems kinda premature to have much of a sense if he's going to be Pat Burrell or Evan Longoria or somebody else offensively.

I guess what I'm saying is that if the Cubs smart young front office guys draft Bryant ahead of Gray/Appel, I'd have to admit that I have no clue if that is smart or not, and I'd be very intrigued by that assessment.

I'm guessing that Appel will be on the board at #2 and Cubs will draft him. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 29, 2013, 05:28:11 am
Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery.  Has he been on the DL any other time?  I don't remember if he was last season or not.

Time missed to injuries is time missed to injuries, whether the player is formally put on the DL or not.  If the Cubs are being overly cautious sitting him any time he has the most minor ache or pain, then there certainly there is no cause for concern... but I see no reason the Cubs would be doing that.  The front office knows why he is missing games far better than I could guess, and I am not trying to second guess them.  I am merely pointing out that the time he has missed, and the reasons publicly given, would make it appear that he might be on the less durable end of the spectrum, and, if that is the case, we should not be surprised if the Cubs decide to move him at some point well before he would become a FA, and that doing so would probably be the best idea.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 29, 2013, 09:47:31 am
"Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery.  Has he been on the DL any other time?  I don't remember if he was last season or not."

You don't like the way I phrased it?  I will do it over.

Almora missed time because of his hamate bone surgery.  Has he missed time before?  I don't remember if he did last season or not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 29, 2013, 11:59:07 am
The way you word it makes no difference to the issue I was raising.  The point is how often he has been injured causing him to miss playing time and how much playing time he has missed.  Whether those involve trips to the DL or not is irrelevant to the issue I was raising.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 29, 2013, 12:34:56 pm
That is why I took the DL out of the question.  Which you didn't answer, by the way.  Has he missed time due to injury, prior to the problem with the hamate bone?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 29, 2013, 12:57:34 pm
Bryant has a couple of questions.  1) Will he stick at 3rd base?  2) Hit tool  3) How much of his walk rate is due to approach to just getting pitched around?

His batting average is tough to look at because he plays in a bad conference with no protection.  So he's facing very few MLB draft prospects, but he also isn't getting a lot of great pitches either.  I believe that is why they moved him to batting first.  If his hit tool has average to above- average he would be by far the #1 prospect in the draft.  He'd be Tiexerria, while Appel/Gray aren't prior.  So I think it is safe to say his hit tool at this time is lacking, maybe it get's better, most likely it doesn't.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on May 29, 2013, 01:51:40 pm
I like hitters, HR's, walks, and OBP.  Bryant might be a force, and if you're hitting bundles of HR's, it's not THAT easy to hit below .250.  Rizzo K's a lot, but hits enough HR to float his average, and is an .800+ OPS guy.  If you drafted Bryant and he produced like current Rizzo, would that be a disappointment or a win?  Or would he need to hit more like vintage Edmonds to be viewed as a win? 

HR's can carry you a long, long way.  But, when you live on HR's, those don't always translate well against better pitching.  Brandon Sing hit 32 HR at Daytona and 26 more in AA (ages 23/24), with OPS way above .900 each year.  But by AAA, the HR's were gone.  Will Bryant be like that?  I have no idea. 

But, if they expect him to hit big-league HR's and walk at Edmonds-type levels, he doesn't need to play 3B to be a great pick.   

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on May 29, 2013, 03:47:27 pm
That is why I took the DL out of the question.  Which you didn't answer, by the way.  Has he missed time due to injury, prior to the problem with the hamate bone?

Took it out of what question?  I am sincerely unaware of you directing any question at me, other than asking if I liked the way you worded something.  It is my understanding that in addition to the broken hamate, he has the hamstring pull recently, and it was my understanding that he was also injured at some point last year.  If he wasn't, fine.  I raised this simply by repeating my concern that some players are not particularly durable, and that when they are identified, it is best not to depend on them.  If Almora is in fact actually a horse and unlikely to ever be injured again in his life, wonderful.  I actually am not claiming where he is on the durability spectrum (and when I earlier in my 2nd or 3rd post on him in this exchange said I would describe him as "brittle," it was in response to deeg writing that the current injury was his 3rd already, and at that point, I wrote, "If you are not saying it, and he has already had three injuries, let me say it.  He's brittle, or not durable, or injury-prone, or however you want to term it."

So, if this is his 3rd injury, yes, I would look at him as probably toward the non-durable end of the spectrum.  If it is not his 3rd injury, I probably wouldn't have that concern.

Not trying to avoid any question, just not seeing any question directed to me either.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on May 30, 2013, 03:42:48 pm
Keith Law has a new Mock up and has Astros taking Colin Moran. I guess this is the rumor going around in the industry, with Astros using saved money for later picks as last year.

If that happens, Cubs will actually have to decide between Appel and Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on May 30, 2013, 03:44:49 pm
I would go Appel.  Gray may end up better but I feel that Appel is safer.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 30, 2013, 03:48:14 pm
ABTY on PSD posted that he's hearing 70% chance the Astros take Bryant.  Other's he mentioned were Moran and Gray.  He also mentioned that Appel was looking for 1 or 2 slot money, no discounts.


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 30, 2013, 04:28:09 pm
Chris, it looks like you and Theo are on the same wavelength here.

Quote from: Keith Law
2
Mark Appel
POS: RHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: Stanford

Analysis: Appel or Gray. I've heard Theo Epstein loves Gray, but overall the Cubs have a real internal debate between the two options. Without a clear inclination toward either guy, I've assigned them the player I think is better.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 30, 2013, 04:28:59 pm
By the way, here is Law's take on the Astros taking Moran #1.

Quote
1
Colin Moran
POS: 3B
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-3
WT: 215
School: North Carolina

Analysis: I don't think the Astros will make a formal decision on this pick until Thursday, but the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it.

The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.

They could take Jonathan Gray but won't get as much of a discount if they do. They're not on Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier, and Mark Appel doesn't seem to be one of their top two options.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 30, 2013, 11:55:11 pm
No idea who Dave Perkin is but he writes for SI and has Bryant going 1st, Gray 2nd,  and Appel 3rd, and basically says that Bryant is the best talent available.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130530/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-kris-bryant-jonathan-gray-mark-appel-dave-perkin/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 02:29:58 am
Mayo has it Gray, Appel, Bryant:

http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 31, 2013, 09:34:04 am
"Dave Perkin is a professional baseball scout who has worked for the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America. His first book, "Five Plus Tools" is scheduled to be published on April 1, 2014."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on May 31, 2013, 10:35:24 am
Just so his username isn't Davep.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 31, 2013, 11:10:55 am
So how much time, officially, will the Cubs have between the Astro's pick and their own pick? Let's say the Astros nab Moran and the Cubs have the big 3 sitting there. Is there a chance to make phone calls to assess signability and make the decision between Gray and Appel based on who leaves more money on the table (providing the Cubs don't see much daylight between them)?

Or does it move so quickly the Cubs will have their locked-in draft board, and will take their take guy, regardless and worry about signing later.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on May 31, 2013, 11:17:10 am
I would have thought that could have been done before hand
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 11:22:53 am
Teams have 2-3 minutes between picks, I think mostly for TV purposes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 31, 2013, 11:26:09 am
Usually the top pick leaks out at least a day or two before the draft, so the Cubs will probably have a decent idea who will be available.

That being said, I think Carlos Correa was a little bit of a surprise last year.  (I seem to remember there being a lot of speculation he'd still be around for the Cubs pick before the draft.) 

The Astros might play things that close to the vest again this year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 12:05:05 pm
Jonathan Gray's start is about to begin on ESPN 3 at the link:

http://espn.go.com/watchespn/player/_/id/886809/size/condensed/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 12:18:42 pm
I don't know why Gray would be messing with his mechanics this time of the season, but he has. I noticed it in recent highlights and they're still different today. His stuff seems to have faded with the changes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on May 31, 2013, 12:35:17 pm
can't help but wonder if there is an injury when mechanics change for no reason.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2013, 12:40:14 pm
The Cubs most certainly know what Appel/Gray/Bryant would want to sign.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 12:48:02 pm
Gray doesn't appear injured, but I don't like these new, deliberate mechanics. They're noticeably different from when he was dominating in April.

He's having all kinds of issues today. Infield and bunt hits, his and his 3rd basemen making errors on pickoff attempts. Really ugly so far.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on May 31, 2013, 12:54:37 pm
It's certainly been entertaining to follow from a distance the ups and downs of speculation about the top draft pick(s).  The only thing I'm certain of is that McLeod, Hoyer & Epstein have done their due diligence in evaluating their options so that they'll be ready on June 6.  I'm curious whether there are disagreements within the brain trust, and if so, who will make the final decision. But if that's the case, we may never know.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: jacey1 on May 31, 2013, 01:45:40 pm
if indeed Gray's mechanics have changed as the year has progressed, to me, that is significant. if that is the case, do not take him and go with appel
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on May 31, 2013, 03:28:54 pm
what if Houston takes appel do you skip on gray?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on May 31, 2013, 04:39:29 pm
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw
They don't care - he's gone in a few weeks. RT @prunnestrand: Gray threw 129 pitches today. I guess OU is milking him for all he's got.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2013, 05:30:07 pm
Houston won't take Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 08:22:11 pm
Gray settled down after a strange 1st inning, fanning 8 over the last five innings.

9-9-3-2-1-11
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 08:25:41 pm
Quote
@anthonyVslater: Why are scouts so enamored with OU ace Jonathan Gray? His 129th and final pitch in the 9th inning today was clocked at 102 MPH.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on May 31, 2013, 09:20:53 pm
That's nuts, Chris27. No wonder Theo is reported to want him (and I can't imagine anyone would complain if he's the pick).

So, hypothetical: McLeod prefers Appel, Jed likes Bryant, Theo wants Gray (after the Astros take Moran). The cubs take Theo's guy, right? But what if McLeod and Jed like Appel and Theo likes Gray. Does Theo still get his guy? I'm thinking yes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 31, 2013, 09:25:57 pm
Quote
That's nuts, Chris27. No wonder Theo is reported to want him (and I can't imagine anyone would complain if he's the pick).

So, hypothetical: McLeod prefers Appel, Jed likes Bryant, Theo wants Gray (after the Astros take Moran). The cubs take Theo's guy, right? But what if McLeod and Jed like Appel and Theo likes Gray. Does Theo still get his guy? I'm thinking yes.

Whenever there's a three way tie in the Theocracy, that means Wilken gets to make the pick. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on May 31, 2013, 09:30:53 pm
If there is no consensus, my guess is that it's Hoyer's pick, and he will rely on McLeod's input more than others. That may sound silly given that Theo is the boss, But good bosses know to let their employees do the job they were hired to do.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 31, 2013, 09:42:06 pm
Actually don't forget Jaron Madison in this too. He's the scouting director after all.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on May 31, 2013, 09:45:35 pm
I agree with Tico.  Epstein should not over rule Hoyer unless he is ready to replace him with someone he trusts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on May 31, 2013, 10:00:55 pm
New Callis mock has Gray to the Astros, Appel to the Cubs. He thinks the Astros take one of those two.

http://ht.ly/lB6bI
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on May 31, 2013, 10:03:45 pm
So basically, nobody really knows what the Astros are going to do yet.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on May 31, 2013, 10:05:44 pm
So, hypothetical: McLeod prefers Appel, Jed likes Bryant, Theo wants Gray (after the Astros take Moran). The cubs take Theo's guy, right? But what if McLeod and Jed like Appel and Theo likes Gray. Does Theo still get his guy? I'm thinking yes.

The answer to the question is Clay Buchholz.  Back when they all worked for the Red Sox, McLeod wanted to draft Buchholz.  Theo liked him but didn't want to pick him.  Fight happens, Theo throws a chair and hits their draft board, Theo storms out.  McLeod picks Buchholz.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7027/mcleod-to-change-cubs-draft-philosophy
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 01, 2013, 12:00:08 am
If McLeod is in charge of the draft, McLeod should get to break all ties.  That's why Theo brought him in to do -- run the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 01, 2013, 03:07:30 am
Watched the last few innings of Gray's start which I missed earlier. He looked like I had seem him recently which was good but not early-season great. Also, there must have been different guns based on the broadcast because the ESPN3 feed had him mostly 94-95 all game and 98 on the last pitch, not 102. He did throw one vicious 70 mph change to record a K in the 9th that really stood out.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 01, 2013, 09:23:04 am
Actually don't forget Jaron Madison in this too. He's the scouting director after all.

Yes.  I'd assume that the other guys can make input, but the scouting director is hired to be the scouting director.  Scouting director makes the call. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 01, 2013, 10:04:32 am
Yeah, well, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as "the scouting director" makes the call or "McLeod should get to break all ties."  The guy with the actual authority is Theo, so if anyone else "makes the call" or "breaks all ties" it will be because he says so. 

From the descriptions I've read of how this leadership team operates, I get the impression that Theo wants a collaborative team approach, so much so that he is willing (as happened in Boston) that he wants to empower those below him. But I don't think there's anything mechanistic about their process, such that McLeod or the scouting director would have final authority, even if their choice were one with which Hoyer and/or Theo strongly disagreed. I expect it to be more nuanced than that.

Maybe this is a subject for one of Reb's imagined conversations.




Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 01, 2013, 10:27:54 am
Yeah, well, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as "the scouting director" makes the call or "McLeod should get to break all ties."  The guy with the actual authority is Theo, so if anyone else "makes the call" or "breaks all ties" it will be because he says so. 

Of course the highest boss can over rule those under him if he chooses, but why stop at Epstein.  You might as well mention that Ricketts can over rule Epstein if he so chooses.

but I agree.  If a good manager hires someone to do a job, he usually allows him to do it even when he would have gone in another direction.

But I assume that it would be McLeod, who is Director of Scouting and Development (or whatever) will likely make the decisions in the few cases when there is not a consensus.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 03, 2013, 12:55:37 am
OU  has advanced to the Super Regionals and will now face one of the best teams in the country in LSU next weekend.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 03, 2013, 08:18:41 am
Have I mentioned how awful the new website design is at Baseball America?  It is so much harder to find anything now than it used to be. 

Just going through some of the state by state previews too, they're only doing scouting reports now for the Top 500, and that's it.  Used to, they'd at least have a line or two about several prospects in a state even if they were outside the Top 500.  Really, looking at the state by state reports this year is pretty much useless. 

Why does everyone feel like they have to change things up when all it does is make things worse?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 03, 2013, 09:58:14 am
Yeah, well, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as "the scouting director" makes the call or "McLeod should get to break all ties."  The guy with the actual authority is Theo, so if anyone else "makes the call" or "breaks all ties" it will be because he says so. 

From the descriptions I've read of how this leadership team operates, I get the impression that Theo wants a collaborative team approach, so much so that he is willing (as happened in Boston) that he wants to empower those below him. But I don't think there's anything mechanistic about their process, such that McLeod or the scouting director would have final authority, even if their choice were one with which Hoyer and/or Theo strongly disagreed. I expect it to be more nuanced than that.

Not sure I'm tracking.  Seems to me that this is very much a collaborative situation.  That's why they have lots of guys watching, and able to make input.  Everybody can contribute to the discussion.  If there is a consensus, then there is "no final authority" question.  If everybody agrees, or if it's fairly clear that the overall majority prefer Appel, then the decision is easy.  I assume that even if Madison prefers Gray, but the discussion shows that McLeod and Hoyer and Theo all prefer Appel, then I'd assume Madison defers to the collective and they take Appel.  I certainly assume that if Theo has a favorite, but Madison and McLeod prefer somebody else, I would be shocked (and appalled) if Theo overrode the judgment of the guys he's hired.  Somebody mentioned a story about the Buchholz selection in Boston, in which Theo apparently strongly disagreed with McLeod's judgment; but McLeod made his pick and Theo did not override him.   

Ordinarily I assume the scouting director has the final call, as was apparently McLeod's deal with the Buchholz pick.  Again, I'd assume he might defer to the input of the others.  (We know in many organizations, baseball or otherwise, a person who has the authority to make a decision will sometimes defer to the advice of an advisory group.) 

On the other hand, Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod all know the potential impact of the #2 selection, and of high first-round picks in general.  Those guys probably aren't repeatedly watching candidates for our 3rd or 2nd round pick.  But it's entirely plausible that for pick #2, Theo and McLeod and Hoyer could know the guys just as well as Madison does.  They could have spent just as much time watching Gray and Appel as have Madison or any of the other scouts. So perhaps there is no reason why Madison should really have any greater final say for our top pick than any of the other guys.   So perhaps for the top pick, Madison's voice has no more weight, and perhaps even less, than that of McLeod or others. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 03, 2013, 10:06:55 am
If you take delegation to its furthest extremes, that means it's Jaron Madison's call.  I have a hard time thinking what Jaron Madison would want would completely trump what Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod would want, though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 03, 2013, 12:03:34 pm
I envision a pre-draft meeting involving Epstein, Hoyer, McLeod, Madison, Wilken and the scout(s) and scouting supervisor(s) who have followed Appel, Gray and Bryant. The meeting would last until their was a consensus on who was out of consideration, and who would be picked first if both of the top two candidates were available. Both the talent level and expected signing bonus of all three candidates would be considered.

I wouldn't object to drafting Bryant (or Frazier) if they could save a couple million on his signing bonus, particularly if the Astros drafted Appel or Gray, rather than Moran.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 03, 2013, 12:15:33 pm
This is the latest from ABTY, his sources are outside the Cubs organization (scouts from other teams, agents).  Huge FWIW.

Rumor is Gray to the Astros at 1.1, the Cubs would then take Bryant at 1.2 (he isn't coming cheap, Boras client).  Appel would then fall to the Indians.  If that happens I'd be ****ed.  I'd put Appel slight over Gray due to floor.  Bryant well behind due to competition, height giving him a loopy swing, and the fact that he likely ends up in RF.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 03, 2013, 02:10:52 pm
My own opinion is that the GM orchestrates the roster and that his assessment of who fits in best with long range plans would be the starting point for the group discussion.  Someone would have to make a very strong argument to override Hoyer's pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 03, 2013, 04:02:28 pm
If they miss out on both of the pitchers and take another right-handed hitter, I will not be pleased.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 03, 2013, 04:03:21 pm
I expect the Cubs to end up with Appel or Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 03, 2013, 04:07:57 pm
I expect the Cubs to end up with Appel or Gray.

So do I but this is the Chicago Cubs we're talking about, so, things rarely go as we expect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 03, 2013, 04:10:00 pm
Got this off message board from a reliable guy at LSU game last weekend...mostly concerns lsu guys but does mention Gray and Lemahieu

SPOKE TO CUBS pro scout, he said Okies pitcher has been clocked at 102 mph and he thinks he will be the Cubs first round pick which is second pick in the draft.

Supposedly, Ibarra is not planning on coming out. Thinks Ross will be drafted by someone, as will Rhymes and Katz. Said Rumelow is quirky and has been since high school. He is all over the place mentally. What was funny is I told him before he said that that he seemed to march to a different drummer, and he confirmed that personally he is just like that. May explain why he is sometimes wild sometimes dominating. However, he assured me he would have been a much better pitcher but for that oblique injury he suffered at the beginning of the season. He said that was a bad injury and he was not right for quite awhile and may just be getting fully over it. I thought that was interesting.

Loved Lamahieu and was unhappy that the club had traded him.

Stephenson is going to have to show a whole lot more at the plate to get drafted. He loves Jones at second base and how he moves and throws with velocity while running the opposite direction from his target, and his range. He said someone will take a chance on Cotton because he is left handed and throws strikes. I said, "and he has a superior change up, better than most college pitchers." ....and he said, it was a Houdini change up, as most hitters just cannot seem to tell it is coming even though they seem to know that it is.

He went on and on about the dumbas ULL coach starting that kid twice in one day. He said that had all the of the recipe for ruining an arm.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 03, 2013, 04:51:32 pm
Quote from: Keith Law via the Twitter
New post (free) - Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray tested positive for a banned stimulant in MLB predraft testing: http://klaw.me/18NVvhO
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 03, 2013, 04:59:44 pm
Somewhere the Appel and Bryant families are partying.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 03, 2013, 05:06:01 pm
I'd have to say that's pretty big news. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 03, 2013, 05:10:32 pm
Well actually Law doesn't think the positive test is going to be a big deal, since several major leaguers have permission to use the drug he was using anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 03, 2013, 05:19:57 pm
Yep...supposedly it's adderall...Though considering the improvement he's shown and attitude concerns shown previously, he might actually be a guy that needs it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 03, 2013, 05:31:02 pm
From Cubs Den:
"... it's being reported that Gray has tested positive for Adderall, which is banned by MLB unless you have a prescription.  Adderall is commonly used for AD/HD but it is also a stimulant. Gray reportedly does not have a prescription for the drug."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 03, 2013, 05:34:32 pm
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
major leaguers can receive exemptions for stimulants. 1 GM said he didnt see Gray's failure as a big issue.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 03, 2013, 05:35:21 pm
Now we can get Appel in the first round and Gray in the second round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 03, 2013, 05:37:02 pm
And Theo has in the past not seemed to be bothered by PED's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 03, 2013, 06:35:03 pm
No matter what anyone says, this is big news.  It certainly settles any argument in the Theocracy over Appel vs. Gray, and might conceivably knock Gray down a number of spots.  But if the Astros did take Appel - which I doubt - I don't think the Cubs would take Gray at #2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 03, 2013, 06:39:25 pm
Three ML executives say it's not a big deal:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/draft/2013/06/03/jonathan-gray-oklahoma-positive-test-draft/2386349/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 03, 2013, 06:44:33 pm
It's Adderall.

If he didn't have a prescription and wants one, he will have no trouble finding a doctor to write it for him.  If he feels he needs it, and has a doctor's prescription, and a friendly doctor saying he genuinely needs it, MLB will grant him an exemption to the rule.

This is a nothingburger.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 03, 2013, 06:50:02 pm
http://www.philly.com/philly/health/Adderall-MLBs-latest-performance-enhancing-drug.html:

Adderall: MLB’s latest performance-enhancing drug
POSTED: Tuesday, November 27, 2012, 4:54 PM
Robert Senior
Filed Under: Baseball | Performance Enhancement | Robert Senior

 By Rob Senior
Adderall is an amphetamine best known for its success in treating attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). But the alarming number of Major League Baseball players using Adderall has led to the medication’s designation as a performance-enhancing drug by league executives.
 
Initially made available to the public in 1996, Adderall was originally an instant-release tablet. Five years later, Adderall XR—an extended-release version—came onto the market. Both are available in generic forms.
 
Adderall has been shown to significantly reduce the effects of ADHD, which is commonly characterized by difficulty maintaining focus, hyperactivity and impulsive behavior. Symptoms of ADHD typically manifest before age seven, but can remain present long into adulthood.
 
Adults with ADHD often struggle with planning, impulse control and easy distractibility. Adderall’s effectiveness in improving concentration, impulse control and attention span make it a desirable solution for these adults.
 
Similarly, adults without ADHD can enjoy these same attention-span increasing benefits. As it pertains to Major League Baseball, in 2011 a total of 105 players were granted exemptions under the league’s drug policy to fill prescriptions for Adderall according to an NBCSports.com article. That’s about one in every 10 players, a much higher rate than the general population.
 
“The anticipated benefit is that performance and stamina can be enhanced,” said Daniel Hussar, professor of pharmacy at the Philadelphia College of Pharmacy at the University of the Sciences. “But sometimes individuals get into such a habit of using these medications that it can be quite a letdown when they stop using them. They feel compelled to continue using the product.”
 
Earlier this year, Major League Baseball tightened criteria for obtaining such exemptions in response to criticism stemming from the abnormally high rate of prescriptions among its players. As of last June, players receiving exemptions to use Adderall or other such stimulants need the approval of a three-expert panel. In the past, only one individual reviewed and decided on such requests.
 
Hussar added that Adderall is not a known masking agent for other performance enhancing substances. But he added that he feels strongly that MLB should better regulate Adderall use in its players. “These are potent medications that can have serious consequences if misused,” says Hussar. “If individuals let their guard down with these substances, circumstances can increase the risk of damage to the cardiovascular system.”
 
Side effects with Adderall have been known to include dizziness, headache and weight loss. The active ingredients in Adderall and Adderall XR are dextroamphetamine and racemic DL-amphetamine salts.
 
Rob Senior can be reached at robertjsenior@gmail.com or (610) 416-9693.


If for whatever reason Gray is not allowed to continue Adderall use, his performance could suffer significantly.  I do think it's an issue for teams deciding whether to draft him near the top.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 03, 2013, 07:01:07 pm
I suspect that different GMs have different attitudes on this sort of thing.  I would think, given the emphasis that Theo has placed on knowing the person and not just the athlete, and on character specifically, if Gray has been taking a drug that is illegal within MLB and has (presumably) been hiding that fact, it would have at least some negative impact on their interest in drafting him.  If the Cubs rated Gray way above the others, maybe I could see them drafting him anyway, but assuming that is not the case, I'd be very surprised if they do.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 03, 2013, 07:06:21 pm
I suspect that different GMs have different attitudes on this sort of thing.  I would think, given the emphasis that Theo has placed on knowing the person and not just the athlete, and on character specifically, if Gray has been taking a drug that is illegal within MLB and has (presumably) been hiding that fact, it would have at least some negative impact on their interest in drafting him.

Really?

Theo turned a blind eye to steroid use in the Red Sox clubhouse.

I really don't think he is likely to be bothered about this in the least.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 03, 2013, 07:10:09 pm
I think the Gray news increases Houston's chances of taking local high school RHP Kohl Stewart from not likely to somewhere close to 50/50.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 03, 2013, 07:19:37 pm
It isn't so much the issue of character and Gray hiding his use of the drug for me, but the possibility that his performance spike this year is a result of his use of a substance he won't be able to use as a professional.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 03, 2013, 07:29:36 pm
Yeah, that too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 03, 2013, 07:30:57 pm
Maybe one of the board admins could create a poll that would look something like this:

Who will draft Jonathan Gray?

1.  Astros
2.  Cubs
3.  Rockies
4.  Twins
5.  Fifth pick or later
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 03, 2013, 07:34:19 pm
I've seen predictions ranging from "the Astros will take Gray #1 because he'll now sign at a discount" to "he's fallen out of the top 10 and will return for his senior year." Apparently the MLB clubs have known about this for several days. Just imagine the mess if this had been announced on Thursday morning.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 03, 2013, 07:34:21 pm
My prediction.

Astros will take Appel.

Cubs will take Bryant, and claim that it was he that they wanted the entire time.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 03, 2013, 09:06:43 pm
I don't think the Astros take Appel. Plenty of good guys they could take at number one and under slot just like last year. Appel is going to demand the highest signing bonus this year.

I think this greatly increases the Cubs' chance of drafting Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 03, 2013, 10:24:51 pm
Makes it easier for Appel to demand superslot. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on June 04, 2013, 08:38:01 am
Astros take someone like bryant and cubs take appel.  Gray doesnt make it back to us in the second jes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 04, 2013, 09:19:17 am
How about Cubs take Gray at $1-2 sub-slot?  And get some real talent in round 2, and maybe 3. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 04, 2013, 09:47:31 am
Gray can always go back to school and prove he's clean, and he can pitch like a #1 pick clean.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: buff on June 04, 2013, 10:20:08 am
I will be shocked if we don't take Appel if the Astros pass
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 04, 2013, 10:41:21 am
Quote
and he can pitch like a #1 pick clean.

You're not suggesting Adderall makes someone a dominant pitcher I hope.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 04, 2013, 10:46:34 am
Gray wasn't the only highly ranked prospect who tested positive for Adderall:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/jonathan-gray-and-aaron-blair-test-positive-for-adderall/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 04, 2013, 10:54:45 am
Adderall abuse very common at college these days for final exam prep. Gray is a college student after all facing exams---could be he took it for that purpose (at least in part) and not so much for baseball.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 04, 2013, 11:06:02 am
Astros take someone like bryant and cubs take appel.  Gray doesnt make it back to us in the second jes.

smurf, I never suggested that he would.  I don't believe anyone here has suggest that he would.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 04, 2013, 11:14:27 am
Adderall abuse very common at college these days for final exam prep. Gray is a college student after all facing exams---could be he took it for that purpose (at least in part) and not so much for baseball.

I was just going to make the exact same point.  Of course if Adderall has a short half-life and registered in a drug screen which was not soon after an exam, that explanation would not fly.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 04, 2013, 12:28:35 pm
Read were OU's exams were a few weeks ago, so if he was tested recently, it means he was using Adderall recently.

This seems to be a case -- like most -- where the most obvious explanation makes the most sense: he came into this season wanting to be seen as a 1st round pick, and knew he needed to lose weight and increase/maintain velocity. Adderall was, essentially, the PED that allowed that. And he's most likely used it all year then.

Now, if that doesn't bother Jed/Theo, and they draft him, great.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 04, 2013, 12:49:03 pm
He's a baseball player at OU looking at a huge payday within a month of his final exams.  Do you think he really cares enough about his grades to take Adderall?  I could be wrong but a kid who went to junior college then to OU, I would think the most he cares about his grades is to stay eligible.

If he uses it fairly often a urine drug screen might pick it up about 7 days after his last dose.  It it was a one time thing, it would be maybe 2 days at the most.  So he either was abusing it, or he picked an incredibly stupid time to try and take a drug illegally. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 04, 2013, 12:55:04 pm
Quote
and knew he needed to lose weight and increase/maintain velocity.


I have yet to read one thing about Gray losing weight at any point and can't currently find anything on it. Are you hypothesizing or have you heard that before?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 04, 2013, 12:56:07 pm
Read were OU's exams were a few weeks ago, so if he was tested recently, it means he was using Adderall recently.

Not necessarily.

THC (pot) will register in a urine test for more than 30 days after use.  **** will not register in a urine test after 24 hours.  It Adderall remains in the system like THC does, your conclusion would not at all be clear.  If Adderall remains in the system like **** does, your conclusion would make more sense.

Now, if that doesn't bother Jed/Theo, and they draft him, great.

Steroids didn't bother him in Boston.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: FITS on June 04, 2013, 01:01:16 pm
From what I've read, Adderall XR will register in a urine test for up to 72 hours after taking it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 04, 2013, 01:04:27 pm
You're not suggesting Adderall makes someone a dominant pitcher I hope.

It seems fair to assume that Adderall enhances performance, or it wouldn't have been banned as a performance enhancing drug.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 04, 2013, 01:06:11 pm
From what I've read, Adderall XR will register in a urine test for up to 72 hours after taking it.

It's not quite that easy.  It depends on the sensitivity of the test.  It appears Adderall has a helf life of about 10 hours, meaning the level in the bloodstream (or urine) will fall by half roughly ever 10 hours.  http://www.drugs.com/pro/adderall-xr.html  With some tests, it might not register for close to 72 hours, depending on the amount consumed.

That said, with a 10 hour half life, it would be interesting to know when the test was taken, when his exams were, and when his last game had been.  With a 10 hour half life, the positive result would pretty clearly NOT be the result of having taken it a few weeks earlier.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 04, 2013, 01:45:57 pm
Chris27, on the weight loss stuff, I am guilty of believing stuff I've read posted to various baseball blogs about Gray needing to improve his body and fitness and how he did so this year--and made the leap to tie it to adderall. But can't say that I've read any credible reporting or quotes from him. So, I feel stupid for passing on unsubstantiated and gossipy conjecture.

FWIW, I have no problems with the Cubs taking him #2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 04, 2013, 02:09:33 pm
Not necessarily.

THC (pot) will register in a urine test for more than 30 days after use.  **** will not register in a urine test after 24 hours.  It Adderall remains in the system like THC does, your conclusion would not at all be clear.  If Adderall remains in the system like **** does, your conclusion would make more sense

No every drug is broken down by the body in the same way.  The metabolites in the urine for Adderall depending on the frequency of use, can be picked up 1-7 days out, with 7 days being the extreme end out it.  Most of the drug testing companies from a simple urine test can differentiate from meth and drugs like Adderall.  If you give the dosage and frequency of the drug they can also tell how often you take it.  I find his story of it being a one-time thing hard to believe from professional experience. 

He was drafted by the Royals in 2010 and listed at 6-4, 255 as a high school senior on the Royals mlb page.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 04, 2013, 02:34:47 pm
Quote
It seems fair to assume that Adderall enhances performance, or it wouldn't have been banned as a performance enhancing drug.

To my knowledge MLB has never said what Adderall exactly enhances. I suppose if players are in danger of falling asleep on the field it would be useful.

From what I can tell, MLB only decided it was a problem when it heard so many players were taking it. That doesn't mean it's beneficial to hitting, pitching, or fielding.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 04, 2013, 02:43:01 pm
My son had/has ADD.  He took Ritalin for some time, and, for awhile, the generic.  The Ritalin was far better because it had a time-release bonding agent that allowed him better coverage during the day.  Once, his pediatrician prescribed Adderall.   I guess it works for some people.  For all the good it did him, we could have given it to the dog.

Come to think of it.  We never watched him take it and the dog did get hyper for a couple weeks.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chiman on June 04, 2013, 02:46:34 pm
Curt is your dogs name DP?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 04, 2013, 02:48:28 pm
If it was, I'd give it arsenic.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 04, 2013, 05:01:30 pm
If I belonged to YOU, I would take it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 04, 2013, 11:06:25 pm
Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 1h

Beginning to sense #Astros leaning to Appel if $ fit like they want.

Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 1h

Don't think that's it. @texanfan2785: think news on Gray testing positive for Adderall will make #Astros think twice about him?


Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

If Appel 1-1, think Gray 1-2. Nothing set in stone. @TheCubsGuy: think the #Cubs go Bryant then?


Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 50m

No. Thinking #Astros prefer Appel's superior track record. @TheCubsGuy: so Gray's stock not hurt by the failed test?


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 05, 2013, 01:02:30 am
Why all the debate over whether or not speed is a PED?

Adderall is speed.  People can claim "It helps me focus" all they want but it's the new "greenies" and athletes are using it instead of the old speed.  Athletes in every sport are getting popped for it all over the place.  It's not about focus, it's about getting "amped up" or whatever you want to call what speed does to someone. 

Usually, they find a doctor with questionable ethics to write them a prescription.  Gray didn't do that, for some reason.  I suspect that once he becomes a professional, he will.  I suspect that if Gray actually needed the medication, he would have a legitimate prescription.

He probably got it from an Oklahoma trainer or teammate.  His story will probably be the usual, "I was working out with a friend at the gym and he said he had some vitamins that would help me recover quickly from my recent bout with strep throat.  I should have been more careful and asked more questions about what he was giving me.  I was just too trusting, as is my nature.  I take full responsibility because, bottom line, I'm responsible for what goes into my body, even if I accidentally ingested it.  I'm sorry that I let my family, friends, teammates and Sooner fans down.  I promise you all that it won't happen again."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 05, 2013, 03:49:55 am
Latest Kiley McDaniel mock:

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1296613.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2013, 04:01:16 am
I'll be very surprised if the Cubs take Gray at #2, but I guess anything's possible.  Here's hoping they get another crack at Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 05, 2013, 08:42:48 am
I just hope the Cubs get their first choice (Astros select Moran or one of the other two among Appel, Gray and Bryant).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 05, 2013, 11:37:33 am
Wouldn't be shocked at all if Kohl Stewart went #1...saving $$$
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 05, 2013, 11:39:38 am
Wouldn't be shocked at all if Kohl Stewart went #1...saving $$$
I totally agree.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on June 05, 2013, 11:40:44 am
when is the draft?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: FITS on June 05, 2013, 11:45:00 am
when is the draft?

Tomorrow starting at 7pm ET.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 05, 2013, 12:50:01 pm
It's a little surprising we haven't heard much about which way the Astros are leaning.

Then again, they played it pretty close to the vest last year too, so I guess it's not too terribly surprising.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 05, 2013, 04:37:03 pm
So I'm curious to see what people think around here. Assume for a moment that the Astros take Appel (which I think is EXTREMELY unlikely):

Would you take Gray or Bryant?

My vote is Gray.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 05, 2013, 04:39:11 pm
Bryant.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 05, 2013, 04:42:41 pm
Kohl Stewart.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 05, 2013, 04:44:04 pm
I just don't know enough about Bryant's hit tool to make a call on that one way or the other.  If we were confident he could hit for a .280 or better type average, then yeah I'd have a lot of trouble passing up an impact bat there. 

All in all, that's a question I'm just going to have to leave up to the professionals. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 05, 2013, 04:58:44 pm
All in all, that's a question I'm just going to have to leave up to the professionals. 

I'm with JR in copping out on this.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 05, 2013, 05:18:45 pm
Gray.  Though I definitely wouldn't mind the Cubs keeping Stewart away from a&m and he looks like great talent.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on June 05, 2013, 05:57:35 pm
Depends on my conversations with Gray and my sense of whether the Adderall thing is a serious concern.  If not, I take Gray, but that should be tempered with my standard caveat of "What the hell do I know."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 05, 2013, 06:03:24 pm
I'm having a tough time choosing between a pitcher from a podunk junior college in Arkansas and a lefthanded pitcher for a podunk high school in Idaho.   I'm waiting to hear if someone else wants either of them, then that's my choice.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 05, 2013, 06:40:15 pm
A&M just signed one of the top QBs in the nation. Stewart's playing baseball.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 05, 2013, 06:42:56 pm
I just don't know enough about Bryant's hit tool to make a call on that one way or the other.  If we were confident he could hit for a .280 or better type average, then yeah I'd have a lot of trouble passing up an impact bat there. 

All in all, that's a question I'm just going to have to leave up to the professionals. 

Coward
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 05, 2013, 06:48:32 pm
CurtOne is a bad man.

Arguello at Cubs Den with a "if Appel is gone, should Cubs take Bryant or Gray" piece. He's a good, thoughtful writer who gives a fair set of pros and cons for each guy without cherry picking observations and quotes from scouts to support either guy....though he may be a little more convincing about Bryant. He clearly hopes for Appel, however (as do I; then Bryant, then Gray):
 
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/what-if-the-astros-pick-appel-a-look-at-the-pros-and-cons-of-drafting-jonathan-gray-vs-kris-bryant/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2013, 06:55:00 pm
Wouldn't be shocked at all if Kohl Stewart went #1...saving $$$

Nor would I, and I hope they do since he's no factor for us.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 05, 2013, 06:56:11 pm
So I'm curious to see what people think around here. Assume for a moment that the Astros take Appel (which I think is EXTREMELY unlikely):

Would you take Gray or Bryant?

My vote is Gray.

Frazier.  If not Frazier. Bryant.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 05, 2013, 07:08:54 pm

CurtOne is a bad man.

Arguello at Cubs Den with a "if Appel is gone, should Cubs take Bryant or Gray" piece. He's a good, thoughtful writer who gives a fair set of pros and cons for each guy without cherry picking observations and quotes from scouts to support either guy....though he may be a little more convincing about Bryant. He clearly hopes for Appel, however (as do I; then Bryant, then Gray):
 
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/what-if-the-astros-pick-appel-a-look-at-the-pros-and-cons-of-drafting-jonathan-gray-vs-kris-bryant/

I fixed it for you.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 05, 2013, 09:41:37 pm
I wouldnt touch Gray now.

We're trying to rebuild through young talent.

We dont need players with issues especially at #2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on June 05, 2013, 09:47:14 pm
Who knows what our braintrust is really thinking, but my best guess is that if Astros take Appel, we will take Bryant over Gray...at least partly due to perceived poor judgment and/or lack of personal discipline.

Adderall w/o a prescription reflects poorly on his judgment, particularly in his circumstances.  Gray's lack of conditioning has also been an issue, at least before this season (when he was taking the stimulant without a prescription).

Meanwhile, Bryant is a very good student in excellent condition, who exhibits plus plate discipline.

Seems like the one top talent fits the current Cub profile far better than the other, though perhaps Gray can clean up his act as he matures.

I'll bet Cubs take Appel, if he's there, but pass on Gray if the Stros take Appel.   We will know by this time tomorrow.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 05, 2013, 09:57:06 pm
Quote
Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 14m

Appel RT @BradenConway What is your gut feeling when it comes to the Cubs at number two at the moment?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: jacey1 on June 05, 2013, 10:47:28 pm
If HOU takes Appel, I too think they will take Bryant over Gray. I say our braintrust will nab Appel over Gray if they have a choice. Gray concerns me, even before this drug thingy 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 05, 2013, 10:56:06 pm
Looks like a good year for Boras, if Appel/Bryant are going 1-2 in one order or the other. 

I assume he'll figure his guy at #2 should be worth #2 plus whatever overage is available. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 05, 2013, 11:05:30 pm
I would stay away from Bryant like he was radioactive.  I do not trust right-handed hitters with questionable hit tools that high in the draft unless they are 100% can't-miss and Bryant isn't that in my book.  That's a personal bias on my part, I know it's not scientific at all.  I don't buy him being great and the Cubs need great out of this draft.

I would rate my wish list as 1. Appel 2. Gray (Distant)3. Moran 4. Frazier.

They shouldn't pass up one of the pitchers.  Hopefully, they have a chance to pick Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 05, 2013, 11:11:00 pm
Quote
Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 34m

I think the Cubs are the only high pick I haven't heard a below slot rumor about. it's only good business to let one get out, real or not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2013, 12:05:08 am
Christoper Crawford, one of the ESPN draft guys with Law, has a mock up today on his own site and says he's feeling more confident that Appel goes to Cubs.

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/the-penultimate-mock/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 06, 2013, 12:14:07 am
My main concern with Appel is, with him being a senior, not having a signing deadline.  If, i'm not mistaken(and I hope I am), doesn't he have basically up until almost next year's draft to hold out for more money?  I'm sure at some point, it'll become obvious what the Cubs have to offer him, but Boras is crazy...you never know what he's going to do; he may hold out till next May in an attempt to get the Cubs to go into pick forfeiture mode just on the off chance they do it, before signing at the last minute.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 06, 2013, 12:23:07 am
I don't see that happening with Boras.  Obviously, he will drive a hard bargain but Cubs will have about a $550,000 overage on the overall pool plus they can underslot the late single digit rounds (like late season) and come up with near another $500,000---so theoretically they could pay Appel 1-1 pick slot.  Guessing that Theo's guys will have a pretty good idea of what Boras is looking for before the draft.  Boras knows he can't bargain the Cubs into losing a draft pick in 2014.

If Astros want to spread it around like last season the Appel deadline issues would probably scare them off.  If they draft Appel, you'd have to guess they basically have parameters of a deal in place.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 01:06:25 am
I'm not concerned about the lack of signing deadline for Appel.  The rest of the Cub picks will still be on deadline.  The Cubs need to set a budget line max for their pick, and spend the rest on their other guys.  Once it's July 13th Boras and McLeod will know exactly how much is left, and there won't be anything Boras can do to get more than that, other than legal challenge to the CBA.  Appel's an interesting guy, and he enjoyed college.  But I think he'll want to start his career, and won't want to delay his career through a multi-year legal appeal to the CBA or anything.   Whatever the Cubs haven't spent through July 12, waiting longer will get nothing more for him. 

I admit it will be pretty disappointing to me if the Cubs elect to superslot #2 at the expense of the rest of their draft.  I'd like to see them able to do something significant and have a chance to afford somebody really good with their 2nd and 3rd round picks.   

But, as JR says, thats up to the professionals.  I'm not sold that Appel is spectacular, or that as a pitcher that he'll stay really good for very long.  So I'm reluctant to invest the whole draft on him.  But, if that's what they choose to do and if it works out, I hope it works.  One genuine long-lasting star is hard to find, and perhaps he'll vindicate the decision. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 08:28:38 am
Coward

Haha, well when you put it that way, I guess I'll lean towards Gray if the choice is Gray/Bryant.  The more I think about it, if scouts didn't question the hit tool for Bryant at least a little bit and if he was virtually a sure bet to be a .280, 40 HR type hitter, we'd probably see him ahead of Appel and Gray in more rankings or more mock drafts than we've seen.  If Bryant isn't almost a complete safe bet with the bat, it's probably best to go with one of the pitchers who seem like safe bets to be good if they stay healthy.

Still, all I've been able to base my judgments on is what I read in Baseball America, Keith Law, or what I read around here.  I haven't watched these guys play any, and even if I did, it'd be pretty hard for me to get a real good feel about how good they really are watching them against a bunch of college kids, most of whom won't even make it past the Boise league if they're even that lucky.  That's really not enough information for me to be too bent out of shape with whatever choice we make if the choice comes down to the consensus top guys. 

The only thing that will get me bent out of shape is if we make some oddball, out of left field, Hayden Simpson type of pick.  The #2 pick is way too valuable for that.  Otherwise, it's just best to leave it up to the pros who have seen these guys play regularly, support the pick, and if the pick turns out to be a bust 3-4 years from now, make a bunch of angry posts about how stupid they were when it was obvious they should have picked someone else.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 08:43:26 am
Excerpts from Patrick Mooney on the Cubs' Draft Day decision, with quotes from McLeod and Bosio.  The sections in bold are ones that seemed to me to have the potential to be especially important comments.

Within the final 24 hours, the Cubs are said to be focusing on three college players at the top of their board: Power pitchers Mark Appel (Stanford) and Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) and San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.

Philosophically, team president Theo Epstein and scouting/player development chief Jason McLeod believe position players taken that high are a much better bet, given the inherent risk with arms, the attrition rate and the historical data that shows pitching comes from all over the draft.

To make that leap, the Cubs would have to be convinced that Appel or Gray is clearly a better choice than Bryant.



McLeod said: “The Mark Appels, the Colin Morans, the Kris Bryants, some of those names that you’ve heard, our scouts all have a history with those guys, dating back to the high school showcase circuit. So there’s comfort there in that we’ve watched the majority of these guys for the last four years.”

Gray might offer more upside than Appel, but he doesn’t have quite the same track record. The Kansas City Royals took Gray in the 13th round of the 2010 draft out of Chandler High School in Oklahoma, and the New York Yankees grabbed him a year later in the 10th round, but his stock has soared since then.

As a junior, Gray has blown away hitters with his 100 mph velocity, going 10-2 with a 1.59 ERA and 138 strikeouts against only 22 walks in 119 innings.

“Reading Baseball America, we all know who all the publications say are the top guys,” McLeod said. “Jon Gray is someone who’s been somewhat of a name in Oklahoma circles, maybe not nationally like some of the other guys. But this is a guy that’s been drafted twice, (so) he’s been on the radar.

And then this year he came out early firing bullets and had a start out at UCLA that kind of really stamped that he was going to be a guy that would be thought of at the top of the draft.

“He doesn’t have as much history on the national scene as some of the other guys, but he’s gone out week-in and week-out and put together a hell of a year.”



Pitching coach Chris Bosio has analyzed video on Appel and Gray and believes it won’t take long before both are fixtures in big-league rotations.

“All those decisions will be made based on their interviews with those players,” Bosio said. “Background stuff, going back all the way to Little League and high school and summer travel (teams) and family stuff and health history. That’s where a lot of these decisions are made, not necessarily with just the guy on the mound.”

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/bryant-appel-gray-cubs-facing-big-decision-no-2 (http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/bryant-appel-gray-cubs-facing-big-decision-no-2)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: FITS on June 06, 2013, 09:07:38 am
In light of the recent events with Gray/Adderall, etc, I'm not sure how anyone can think Appel will be available for the Cubs to pick #2.  I think it then boils down to if the Cubs can/will overlook the Adderall situation, or avoid it at all costs and go with Bryant.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 09:10:46 am
In light of the recent events with Gray/Adderall, etc, I'm not sure how anyone can think Appel will be available for the Cubs to pick #2.  I think it then boils down to if the Cubs can/will overlook the Adderall situation, or avoid it at all costs and go with Bryant.

Given's Houston's track record of prioritzing finances over winning, I think it's entirely possible they won't take Appel.  We can certainly hope.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 09:26:33 am
Mooney's blog with the McLeod and Bosio comments about comfort level and the default preference for a position player, all other things being equal, is persuasive to me.  So if the Cubs can't get Appel, I'm guessing it will be Bryant or maybe Moran. We'll find out within 9 hours.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 06, 2013, 09:35:36 am
The Cardinals want Moran so that their fans can better relate.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 09:35:40 am
Still really hoping for Appel, and am intrigued by Gray's arm and wouldn't complain at all about him. But, regarding the whole "Bryant has a questionable hit tool", is that really true? He isn't a plus hitter (who will hit .310), but only Law is saying (per Arguello) he will be a below average hitter:

"There are always mixed opinions on his hit tool. Most think he'll have an average hit tool, which is to say he'll hit around .270. Others, such as Keith Law, grade him lower, a 45 on the 20-80 scale and thinks he could dip into the .250s or even .240s. To be fair, Law is the only one I've seen with this low a grade on his hit tool, but it needs to be mentioned as an opinion that counters the consensus"

Of course, I have an anti-Law bias, as I think he's a tool.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:36:55 am
This is from last night:

Quote
Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd

Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 09:41:50 am
Moran seems interesting.  If a guy can hit, a guy can hit, and for a lot of years.  I don't know much about the scouting, but if they see him as a quality 3B (maybe not, I have no idea), and a really good disciplined contact hitter, he might be the safest choice of the bunch.  And if he's willing to sign for $4.5, they could get a couple of really good talents with subsequent picks as well. 

Quote
Given's Houston's track record of prioritzing finances over winning, I think it's entirely possible they won't take Appel.  We can certainly hope.


They're going to spend all of their money, so I don't see how it's any cheaper to spread $8 on three guys than on one guy.  I kind of like Houston's approach.  Pitchers get hurt, or have the arm strength that made them amazing deteriorate over a a thousand innings (or less).  Instead of putting all their eggs into one flimsy pitcher basket, if they get a really good position player but save millions left to add several other really good prospects as well, I think the odds are really with that approach. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 06, 2013, 09:43:39 am
Doesn't Hoyerstein's comment about getting good pitching everywhere in the draft run counter to the stats (I think it was Ray) posted the other day about where stud #1's and 2's normally were drafted?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:46:35 am
Quote from: Baseball America
1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston may have a slight preference for Appel, but only at the right price. As a college senior, the July 12 signing deadline doesn’t apply to the Houston native, allowing him to essentially hold a club’s bonus pool hostage if he chooses. The Astros won’t take him without assurances of his cost. There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.

For now, I’m sticking with Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray as the No. 1 choice. There’s no indication that his positive drug test for Adderall (http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/jonathan-gray-and-aaron-blair-test-positive-for-adderall/) will affect the stock of BA’s top-rated prospect, and I’m told it’s not an issue with Houston.

Some sources think the Astros would take San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant ahead of Gray. Others believe they’ll seek a heavy discount from their assigned $7,790,400 pick value by taking North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran, but that doesn’t make sense for reasons I outlined in Mock v3.0 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-3-0-holding-pattern/). Frazier and Meadows are possibilities in a similar scenario.

PROJECTED PICK:
Jonathan Gray.
 (Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel/2.0: Jonathan Gray/3.0: Gray)

2. CHICAGO CUBS:
Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects, with the pitchers ahead of the hitters. I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.

PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel.
 (Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray/2.0: Mark Appel/3.0: Appel)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:48:54 am
Quote
Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects,

That sounds pretty consistent with Hoyer's interview with Olney yesterday too.  He mentioned that we had it narrowed down to four, and I think he let it slip that they were comfortable with each of them, since they had gotten to see them in college. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 10:02:25 am
Doesn't Hoyerstein's comment about getting good pitching everywhere in the draft run counter to the stats (I think it was Ray) posted the other day about where stud #1's and 2's normally were drafted?

If I recall correctly (always a question), the thing about pitchers being drafted #1 or #2 is that Guys who are the absolute top pitchers may have been more likely to have been drafted #1 or #2 than not, but they are rare among those pitchers who were drafted #1 or #2.

In other words the %age of those pitchers drafted #1 or #2 who turn out to be as good as hoped is very small (often, but not always due to injury).  Whereas the position players who are drafted #1 or #2 have a much greater likelihood of ending up actually being impact players than pitchers who are.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 10:07:55 am
I think Law is, as someone described him here, a dumb person's idea of a smart person (maybe himself).  I have no concerns about Bryant's hit tool above and beyond that with any other guy who's not an established major leaguer - I'm confident he'll hit for enough average to be successful.  It's only his defense at 3B that concerns me - as a LF I don't see him being worth the #2 pick. 

I'm glad Theo is "biased" in favor of position players with lottery picks because I think in principle, he's right - you're simply much more likely to get an injury flameout or a bust with a pitcher.  That's why I would have taken Teixeria over Prior, for example - and nothing that happened afterwards makes me feel differently.  But the problem is, I don't see Bryant as a talent on Teixeria's level - in fact, if I were to take a hitter I'd take Frazier.  But if Appel is there, I think this is rare occasion where you can make a strong case for taking the pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 10:10:28 am
Scott Miller has a piece on Bryant. Hard to be too unhappy if the Cubs pick him.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/scott-miller/22356953/budding-slugger-kris-bryant-brings-scouts-back-to-glaus-werth (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/scott-miller/22356953/budding-slugger-kris-bryant-brings-scouts-back-to-glaus-werth)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 10:32:45 am
Kiley McDaniel mentioned that the Cubs could be one of the teams interested in Karston Whitson.  I believe he had thoracic outlet syndrome, which is different from the usual shoulder injuries that pitchers have.  Looking at a google search, because I don't know enough about it, most of the cases have come from Texas Rangers, about 9 in all.  Kenny Rodgers came back and added 4-5 mph to his fastball after surgery and Matt Harrison is another pitcher.  Hank Blalock, Jared Saltamacchia where some of the position players for the Rangers that had it.  Outside their organization you have Aaron Cook (2004), Jeremy Bonderman (2008), Kip Wells (2006), and Noah Lowery (2009).  Wells and Bonderman it seemed to end their career. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:35:50 am
Pitchers who drop in the draft due to injury usually do so for good reason.  At least that's been the Cubs' experience anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 10:48:42 am
Pierce Johnson, JR?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 10:52:41 am
This isn't the typical shoulder injury.  Most shoulder injuries (players/pitchers) I'd wouldn't touch them.  This is a way to get another top 10 prospect pitcher, with a lot more risk.  It would intrigue me if they did it, but I can't say that I'd want them to do it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:56:40 am
Quote
Pierce Johnson, JR?

I like Pierce, but he's still in Low-A right now.  There's still a long way to go before we really find out what we have in him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 06, 2013, 11:59:28 am
Doesn't Hoyerstein's comment about getting good pitching everywhere in the draft run counter to the stats (I think it was Ray) posted the other day about where stud #1's and 2's normally were drafted?

Yeah...believe it was an article for hardball times.  Basically, elite pitchers are pretty much found in the first.  Only one that wasn't last decadish was Cliff Lee who was a fourth.  Only current guy who has a chance to be number 1 and wasn't is Matt Moore.  Now a lot of the first rounders fail, but if you want a number 1 guy, you pretty much just have to take the plunge.  That doesn't mean good pitching can't be found later in the draft, just not many true number 1's.

There was some debate on the merit of the article.  Jes argued that the article was rubbish because guys he considered number 1's weren't listed, even though every guy he named was a first rounder.  To me, that supported the article's premise, but, to him, that meant the article was useless.  I still don't understand that one.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 12:20:30 pm
Law's final mock has the Astros taking Appel and the Cubs Gray. He says the Astros still do not appear to have made their decision but are trying to work out a deal with Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 12:29:33 pm
Ray, I recall that article being pretty persuasive that ace pitchers come from the first round.   I seem to recall thinking that when there are 15 pitchers taken every first round, not many guys taken outside that group end up having the great arms to be aces.  But I don't recall the ace population being quite as heavily populated by top-of-the-first-round guys as is true for superstar players?  I don't remember it that well, though.

Regardless, this seems to be a good time to take a shot, whether Appel or Gray.  We're the Cubs, of course, so odds seems strong that something will go wrong.  But, nothing wrong with taking a shot at a premium guy. 

I think "you can find pitchers elsewhere" doesn't necessarily refer to aces.  It's not that rare to get a solid 2/3/4 starter outside the first round.   Not a lot of above-average, building block position players taken in rounds 7 or 4. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 06, 2013, 01:00:38 pm
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/drawing-an-ace/

Searched forum. Found discussion on April 9th but I think originally posted before that. Internet out cuz of rain here and doing on phone and short on time so here ya go. There were a couple different article by them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 01:36:13 pm
Cubs Den is confirming what ABTY had said earlier.  Looks like Appel at #2 for around $6 million, unless the Astros want to top it, but they are thought to want to spend around $5 million.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 01:49:52 pm
I'm comfortable with that.   $0.6 extra, plus $0.5 overage, plus perhaps another few-hundred K from rounds 7-10.  Having an extra $1.5 discretionary/superslot could make tomorrow a very fun draft day. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 06, 2013, 02:37:47 pm
Yeah...believe it was an article for hardball times.  Basically, elite pitchers are pretty much found in the first.  Only one that wasn't last decadish was Cliff Lee who was a fourth.  Only current guy who has a chance to be number 1 and wasn't is Matt Moore.  Now a lot of the first rounders fail, but if you want a number 1 guy, you pretty much just have to take the plunge.  That doesn't mean good pitching can't be found later in the draft, just not many true number 1's.

There was some debate on the merit of the article.  Jes argued that the article was rubbish because guys he considered number 1's weren't listed, even though every guy he named was a first rounder.  To me, that supported the article's premise, but, to him, that meant the article was useless.  I still don't understand that one.

More than a bit of an over-simplification.  When I get off the road and have better computer access, I will try to respond more.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 06, 2013, 03:12:16 pm
I look forward to it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 03:19:24 pm
LOL
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 06, 2013, 03:21:14 pm
I wonder if the Cubs will take any Vanderbilt pitchers later in this draft, considering they hired their former pitching coach recently.  It sure would be nice to pick up a sleeper or two in the later rounds.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 06, 2013, 03:23:23 pm
More than a bit of an over-simplification.  When I get off the road and have better computer access, I will try to respond more.

your post was on April 9th if you want to review it.  I can understand disagreeing with whatever cut off he used for what a top of rotation pitcher is, but when all the guys you named as deserving to be considered a number 1 were still taken in the first round....that to me says the premise of the article is sound.  Just seemed like you saw it as a case in court and that by disproving the article because of it's chosen ace measuring cut offs, you repudiated the premise and won the case.  When, to me, your comments only made the author's point stronger when the guys you named as deserving(Cain, Greinke and Weaver) turned out to be first round picks.

I'd probably lean more toward your criteria concerning an ace, but that doesn't mean I still can't agree with the author's conclusion and see the value of his article.

Sorry to litter the landscape with this post since it's a no middle ground situation....know I probably should have just hit delete rather than post but I hit the post button anyway....well, i'm about to hit the post button.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 04:23:15 pm
tweeted in the last 15 minutes or so:

 @DavidRawnsleyPG "well placed source just told me that Astros are down to Stewart or Moran.  Kohl would certainly be a surprise."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 04:36:12 pm
Well if that's truly the case, our pick will definitely be an interesting one tonight. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 04:48:35 pm
The behind-the-scenes machinations have to be something else.

Wonder if Theo/Jed have a decent personal relationship/mutual respect and understanding thing with the Houston GM Luhnow. They are all sort of cut from the same cloth. Would Houston in any way tip their hand to the Cubs so Chicago can focus their conversation with the right guys? Doubt it, but it's fun (for me, anyhow) to imagine how it all plays out
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 04:56:14 pm
It isn't that big of a thing.  All the Cubs have to do is focus on the two guys they feel are best, and pick the one that Houston doesn't pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 06, 2013, 05:54:19 pm
MLB Trade Rumors says the rumor their hearing is the Cubs are leaning to Bryant over a pitcher. This is fun.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:06:25 pm
Selig is such a dumbass.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:11:50 pm
Astros take Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:12:09 pm
OK here we go!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:13:33 pm
Hmmm.  If the two realistic options are Bryant and Gray, I take Bryant.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 06:13:57 pm
Bryant should be their pick
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:15:25 pm
Reynolds is such a dumbass.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:16:47 pm
Reynolds is such a dumbass.

Sun rises in the East.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:18:05 pm
Cubs take Bryant!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:18:11 pm
Wow.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:18:33 pm
Yeah, told you there was no way Theo touched Gray what with the speed controversy.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 06, 2013, 06:19:01 pm
I like it. Hopefully he sticks at 3rd base
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:20:25 pm
Even if he doesn't stick at 3B, he should be just fine in the OF. Hope it works out.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 06, 2013, 06:21:12 pm
Alright! It will be fascinating to see what happens in the power department for Bryant. When you hit more homers than teams, that's something. Here's hoping he sticks at 3b.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:21:15 pm
Gray's screw-up cost us Appel, of course, but Bryant is a very fine talent. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:22:47 pm
It becomes a very real question: if the Cubs took Manea in the 2nd round, would you be able to sign both he and Bryant?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 06, 2013, 06:23:50 pm
Why pick Bryant when we have Vitters?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:24:03 pm
Well I'm definitely looking forward to hearing how the Theocracy came to the decision.  Do they think he'll stick at 3B?  Do they see him as a high average hitter?  It'll be interesting to see what they have to say.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on June 06, 2013, 06:24:19 pm
I'm surprised Houston took Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 06:24:47 pm
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.

I should've known better.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 06, 2013, 06:25:46 pm
Are we done for tonight ? & if we are what time tomorrow does the draft start back up ?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: PRCubFan on June 06, 2013, 06:25:50 pm
Hopefully Bryant is a stud hitter.  Hate losing out on the two pitchers, but I can sort of understand the philosophy of drafting hitters early and then loading up on pitching later in the draft.  Pitchers are just too risky.  I like the idea of having big power bats like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Soler in a future lineup.  Hope they all become studs. 

Are they doing two rounds tonight or just one? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 06, 2013, 06:26:06 pm
I don't see any reason why Bryant would demand supersonic bonus. I also doubt there are savings to be had. He is pretty close to the consensus second-best player in the draft, therefore he can have the second slot's signing allowance.

Does that leave enough for Manea?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 06, 2013, 06:28:35 pm
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.

I should've known better.

No, Gray screwed it up when he took a drug that MLB bans without a prescription.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Boris From Downunder on June 06, 2013, 06:29:43 pm
Bryant wears number 23 - that has to be a good omen!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 06:31:32 pm
What proof is there that the Cubs were bothered by Gray's scary Adderall taking? BA said neither Houston nor Chicago cared. Amazing how Gray plummeted all the way to #3.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 06, 2013, 06:34:08 pm
Earlier this spring I heard McLeod spoke favorably of nabbing a big time quality bat --so I don't think is a shock.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:34:11 pm
Miles just answered my tweet and said yes, the Cubs had decided on Appel.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:34:55 pm
I get the feeling they weren't bothered by the Adderall situation either.  I think they just wanted to take a bat here, and they felt Bryant was safe enough to take. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 06, 2013, 06:37:24 pm
Cubs Den says Bryant will probably spend some time in AZ and then go to Kane County.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 06:37:57 pm
Levine also confirms the Cubs had Appel #1.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:38:56 pm
I love Frazier.  He's going to be a monster star.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 06, 2013, 06:46:09 pm
Is Bryant a bust yet?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 06:46:59 pm
If Bryant can stick at 3B I can like it even if he's a .250 hitter.  If he has to move to the OF, then the Cubs just drafted an old Soriano with the second pick.  It is interesting that before Baez and Vogelbomb the Cubs lacked power, but now they have a lot of it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 06:48:49 pm
ABTY called Bryant before the draft started and said he's hearing $6.25 for a bonus.  That Marlin guy said yesterday it was Appel and then Bryant for the Cubs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:52:33 pm
Bryant will walk about 4X more than Soriano, if nothing else.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:52:58 pm
MCleod says 6-foot-5 inch Bryant will stay at third base for now. If he gets bigger and stronger "we'll deal with it then."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 06:53:22 pm
I hope I don't jinx it, but I desperately look forward to the day that the Cubs have a genuine major league offense.

Maybe Bryant can be a part of that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 06:54:32 pm
Baez, bogelbach, Soler, Bryant.

Even if a couple of them fail, they should still end up with an offensive player with substantial power to go along with Rizzo.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 06:57:20 pm
With that 2nd pick I think you have to take either the best signable college arm or the best remaining HS catcher (of which there are several 1st-round talents in this draft).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 07:03:31 pm
The second round is tonight, right? If you scroll down on this cubsden piece, you can see some of the arms that could/should be under consideration for their 2nd pick. Some intriguing guys:
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/cubs-mlb-draft-primer-names-you-should-know-for-the-first-day/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 07:05:31 pm
and, the favorite Bryant tidbit:

Jim Callis, Baseball America: "He has out-homered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrel ability give him elite power."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 07:06:38 pm
Note to Kris Bryant:  "Hit like Dale Murphy, please."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 06, 2013, 07:07:54 pm
and, the favorite Bryant tidbit:

Jim Callis, Baseball America: "He has out-homered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrel ability give him elite power."
If Bryant does join Rock Shoulders and Dan Vogelbach at Kane County, that might be a fun team to watch.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 07:11:39 pm
Quote
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 13m

I had Hunter Dozier ranked 38th in this draft class. The Royals just took him 8th.

And of course noted draft guru Harold Reynolds says, "Love the pick."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 07:11:48 pm
Strawberry to Dominic Smith: "You holding, kid?"
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 06, 2013, 07:11:56 pm
Good pick. Im very leary of taking a pitcher that high. Mark Prior burned me. Our farm system is starting to look much better with Baez,Soler,Almora,and now Bryant. Now go get us a bunch of pitchers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 07:20:18 pm
Well you have to like the collection of bats in the system.  Baez, Almora, Soler, Vogelbach, and now Bryant to go along with Rizzo and Castro already in the big leagues. 

It's about time the Cubs finally started focusing on getting some good position players.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 07:21:10 pm
Well, I'm not sure that Castro counts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 07:22:09 pm
Bryant says he feels he can play in big leagues now but will leave decisions up to #Cubs
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 07:22:11 pm
Harold Reynolds is not an ordinary, run-of-the-mill dope.  He is truly exceptional.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 07:22:27 pm
Castro's hitting like Barney and Vogelbach has no future with the Cubs unless Rizzo's involved in some horrible skiing accident. Baez has some of the worst BB/K ratios I've ever seen.

Meanwhile, there is no pitching in the system to speak of.



Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 07:24:23 pm
Oh, for ****'s sake.  We drafted a complete **** moron.  Hey, Numbnuts, while you certainly COULD play in the big leagues now, you CANNOT play well there now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Bluebufoon on June 06, 2013, 07:31:42 pm
It will be interesting to see if the Cubs still spend money on that Big Dominican outfielder that has been rumored for the past few weeks ? With Baez, Soler and now Bryant -- is the money it would take to sign this Latin OF, the best use of the Cubs resources ?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 07:35:43 pm
I certainly would have been happy with Appell but at the same time I am not disappointed in the least witb Bryant. I was just hoping for either one. While there is no safe pick, Bryant seems somewhat less risky, just based on injury potential. Anybody have any projections for how quickly he might move up?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 08:26:40 pm
If Bud Selig were on fire and there was no fire extinguisher nearby nor any water, would you **** on him?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 06, 2013, 08:30:12 pm
I'd do that whether he was on fire or not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 08:31:03 pm
You're a trouper.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: papa smurf on June 06, 2013, 08:31:56 pm
yes but at your age curt it would just take a while with all the stating and stopping.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 06, 2013, 08:37:51 pm
Is anyone here old enough to remember the very early "Peanuts" comic strips in which Charlie Brown suffered stomach pains when he overheard Lucy telling Linus a bunch of bullshit?  That's pretty much how I feel listening to Harold F. Reynolds.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 06, 2013, 09:15:19 pm
WTF is cold weather upside?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: brjones on June 06, 2013, 09:20:43 pm
Why does MLB Network use Reynolds for this?  I've got to think that just about anyone they have employed would be better. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 06, 2013, 09:33:12 pm
We've got #41 coming up real soon.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 06, 2013, 09:35:48 pm
Manea still there, right?...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:36:36 pm
I don't think the 2nd round is tonight.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 09:47:11 pm
Manea what to KC on their competitive whatever pick.
I thought the 2nd round was tonight, but it's getting awfully late. So maybe not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:47:35 pm
Or is it just not going to be televised?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 09:48:22 pm
nevermind, 2nd round is tonight. Cubs should pick pretty soon now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 09:48:51 pm
Second round is tonight.  I don't know if it is televised.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 09:49:17 pm
They just announced that they will return for the second round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 09:49:24 pm
Denny or Hunter Green please.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 09:50:41 pm
If Theo has the balls to pass on pitching again, Denny would be a great pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 06, 2013, 09:53:55 pm
What CU said...wouldn't hate Wahl or Cody Reed either...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on June 06, 2013, 09:54:19 pm
Ick?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 09:54:23 pm
Heh, what the F...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 06, 2013, 09:54:27 pm
Zastryzny?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 09:54:30 pm
fringy stuff lefty?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:54:49 pm
Quote
Though Zastryzny won just two of his first 11 starts this spring as Missouri got a rude welcome to the Southeastern Conference, scouts aren't holding that against him. A lefthander who can really pitch with his fastball, he should go in the first three rounds. Zastrzyny effortlessly adds and subtracts from his fastball, usually sitting around 90 mph but capable of dropping down to 86 or elevating four-seamers up in the zone at 95. The 6-foot-3, 193-pounder can locate his fastball to either side of the plate and gets good angle, which helps it play up further. His most reliable secondary pitch is his changeup, which shows flashes of being a plus offering. His breaking ball is less consistent, as he will switch between a slider and curveball. Zastryzny throws strikes but will need to refine his command in pro ball.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 06, 2013, 09:55:07 pm
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.

I should've known better.

I had pointed out a few months ago that comments from the Theocracy indicated they were probably inclined to lean toward a position player with a #2 pick unless a pitching prospect was absolutely dominant.  Others had also pointed that out.  Folks here simply heard what they wanted to here.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:55:18 pm
Did Wilken sneak into the building?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:55:21 pm
Zastryzny was the #76 overall prospect in the draft according to BA.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 09:55:34 pm
Wilken clearly retains more power than I thought.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:55:44 pm
Please, someone defend that pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: chgojhawk on June 06, 2013, 09:56:31 pm
Sounds like a scummy pick, and he went to Mizzou to boot!  Doesn't sound like a winner.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 09:57:55 pm
Boy, I really hate that pick.  With elite C prospects on the board.  No ceiling to speak of with this kid - middle relief or back-end starter.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:58:00 pm
2-9, 3.38 ERA, 90 2/3 IP, 93 H, 24 BB, 82 K, 10 HR
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:58:17 pm
10 homers allowed with the dead college bats nowadays seems like a lot.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 06, 2013, 09:58:40 pm
Can't defend...total WTF pick...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 09:58:47 pm
• In his SEC debut against South Carolina (3/8) he went 9.0 innings, allowing just two earned runs and one walk against 10 strikeouts, but was tagged with the loss as Mizzou fell, 2-1.
• Had a great outing again in a losing effort against a high-powered LSU (3/29) team as he went 7.2 innings, allowing just five hits, two runs (one earned) while striking out seven and walking just one.
• Tossed his second career complete game shutout at Georgia (4/5), scattering just seven hits while walking none and striking out four, earning the win.
• Was a tough-luck loser in back-to-back starts against Auburn and Texas A&M, going 8.0 innings in both starts, allowing three and two earned runs, respectively.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 09:59:07 pm
Well, they said they'd stock up on pitchers. They never said they'd be good pitchers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 09:59:25 pm
It will be interesting to see what McLeod says about this selection.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 09:59:32 pm
Bryant must be costing a lot or Stockdill just knocked out McLoud and took Brian McNichol again.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 09:59:37 pm
Gary Hughes works for Boston now?  Wow.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 06, 2013, 10:01:30 pm
Maybe we're hoping to confuse opposing lineups with our pitchers' last names. You know, Samardzija, now Zastryzny... it's the new market inefficiency. Batters try to read and pronounce the names, and before they can make sense of it, they're already down 0-2.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 10:03:39 pm
Well Wood almost had a seizure trying to pronounce his name. You'd think the Cubs would've told him how to prior to the pick, but then again, it is the Cubs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 10:07:20 pm
Z isn't in Mayo's top 100 or Sickel's list of top 50 pitchers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 06, 2013, 10:07:26 pm
Maybe they'll tell us that they are bringing in a good number of arms...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:07:51 pm
MLB.com scouting report:

Quote
   6'03" 205lbs DOB: 03/26/92The latest in a long line of talented Missouri pitchers, Zastryzny has a good feel for the craft of pitching. His fastball typically sits in the upper-80s, but Zastryzny has the ability to add and subtract velocity as necessary. His fastball velocity typically ranges from 86 mph to 94 mph. Zastryzny, a left-hander, uses his height – he's listed at 6-foot-3 – to create a downhill angle for his fastball, which has late action. Zastryzny also throws a changeup and slider. He commands his whole arsenal well and all three of his pitches have the chance to be at least Major League-average offerings.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:08:33 pm
If the Cubs were insisting on taking a college lefty, I wish they had taken Kevin Ziomek instead.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:10:47 pm
Quote
Zastryzny, a junior pitcher from Corpus Christi, Texas, is expected to be selected in the first three rounds when the Major League Baseball draft begins at 6 p.m. tomorrow. The first two rounds are scheduled for tomorrow, with Rounds 3-10 set for Friday and 11-40 for Saturday.

http://m.columbiatribune.com/sports/mu/mu-s-zastryzny-turns-himself-into-prospect/article_d230bca0-cdfc-11e2-94c4-10604b9f6eda.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 06, 2013, 10:11:41 pm
Quote
“I’ve been told as high as middle of the first (round) and as low as fifth or sixth,” said Zastryzny, who posted a 2-9 record this season, thanks mostly to meager run support in Southeastern Conference games. “Some teams have me a little higher, but you never know how the draft’s going to go.”

Baseball America ranks the 6-3, 193-pound Zastryzny (pronounced ZAS-tris-knee) as the No. 76 overall player available … the No. 24 college pitcher … the No. 12 lefthander … and the No. 5 college lefthander. Based on conversations with scouts, Missouri baseball coach Tim Jamieson said he wouldn’t be surprised if Zastryzny becomes the school’s fourth pitcher chosen in the first round since 2006.

“The thing that’s interesting this year is the handful of teams that have more than one pick in the first round,” said Jamieson, referring to the Cardinals, Yankees, Pirates, Rays and Rangers. “Rob fits very well into that second pick from a team in the first round. Everything we’re hearing is there’s a good likelihood that he could be taken late in the first round.”

In recent weeks, Zastryzny has been contacted by representatives from all 30 clubs but has had extensive discussions with the Yankees, Royals, Astros and Blue Jays. The Yankees are the only team with three first-round choices, picking at 26, 32 and 33.

.....


Scouts clocked him in the mid-90s at the SEC tournament, but Zastryzny said he’s able to drop his velocity into the 80s to keep hitters guessing.

“Instead of just pounding 93 of 94 as many times as I can,” he said, “I save it and use a lot of different fastball approaches.”


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/mizzou/zastryzny-hopes-to-join-mizzou-s-group-of-mlb-arms/article_98118666-c242-5f97-b6fc-8eb1d0c73bbb.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 10:13:21 pm
With those numbers, kid, you might just want to throw the ball as hard as you can.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 10:13:40 pm
I guess he was throwing in the 90's at the SEC tourney, so maybe it is more of a Hayden Simpson pick.  The sad fact is he's likely the best LHP prospect in the system.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:14:12 pm
I guess college lefties who can throw mid-90's aren't the easiest things to find in the second round.  Maybe he can avoid being the next Aaron Krawiec.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:16:29 pm
OK so what are the chances that Zastryzny will be the first Cub second rounder to amount to anything since Greg Maddux? 

If you want to see something depressing, look at our history of second round picks since Maddux.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=CHC&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 10:17:35 pm
encouraged by stuff JR and Chris27 have posted, and the stuff I found on the mizzou website about how he did against LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. tall-ish lefties who can throw hard and has a thoughtful approach are good to have.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 10:17:42 pm
Quote
Quote:
@KendallRogersPG The #Cubs take #Mizzou LHP Rob Zastryzny. That's a heck of a pick. He was incredible at the #SEC tourney in front of scouts. Up to 95.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 06, 2013, 10:19:22 pm
Lots of lipstick being applied, but this is still a pig.  Signability all the way.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:20:11 pm
Quote
Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan 7m

According to Mizzou friends, it's pronounced ZAS-tris-knee. For the Chicago media's sake, he will officially be "Not Quite So Big Z"
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ray on June 06, 2013, 10:25:36 pm
Zastryzny actually sounds a lil like Tony Cingrani to me in his pitching style...varying fastball to keep hitters guessing, good downward angle from left side, etc.  I'm sure you could probably say that about  a lot of guys and i'm being simplistic in my comparison, but that's just who came to my mind. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:26:26 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUgykPdR7jE
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:29:56 pm
I think Smurf needs to draft Zastryzny in the fantasy league.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 06, 2013, 10:30:56 pm
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.

I should've known better.

Couldn't agree more.  I'm full on JBN against the Theocracy on this draft so far.  Of course, it's just two picks in but this is awful.  I just see Bryant flaming out in AA a lot like Harvey and Dopirak.

The Cubs still have ZERO pitching prospects, FFS!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:34:02 pm
Maybe if he's able to keep that 95 mph stuff going, we could call him Zas Nasty.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 10:36:40 pm
Ziomek goes to Detroit at #58 overall.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 10:42:10 pm
some of you dudes crack me up. Cubs take consensus top 3 guy who had historic collegiate power season. And, once you get past pick 20 or so, it's a crap shoot, and they took a shot on a lefty who threw 95 against top SEC competition. Yet some guys seem to feel like they just took Pawlecek and Simpson.

Sheesh.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on June 06, 2013, 10:50:32 pm
Yeah, gotta trust the Cubs' track record here!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 06, 2013, 10:51:26 pm
I admit I don't know squat about rating these prospects.  And I understand a certain amount of cynicism based on previous drafts by the Cubs.

But I was under the impression that there was considerable confidence among folks here in the new regime's ability to evaluate talent and make decisions. I had that and still do, so I'm figuring that they may have a better basis for making this decision than anybody here does, and even than BA or others who have spent a lot less time and effort watching and assessing the options.  So while this pick is obviously a surprise and a head scratcher, it's probably not a reason to decide that these guys don't know what they are doing (at least not better than anybody here). 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 11:00:47 pm
Lots of lipstick being applied, but this is still a pig.  Signability all the way.

Not sure why they'd prioritize signability with more than a million to play with.   But certainly seems remotely unlikely that he'd cost more than slot. 

Sounded like an articulate kid.  Late March birthday. 

So, we'll go into round 3 with at least a million to work with.  Should get interesting. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 06, 2013, 11:02:04 pm
Craig Goldstein of Draft Insider (however he is):

‘Zastryzny has a plus fastball with some good movement. Up to the mid-90s and a solid change to boot. Could be plus in time. Issue is the breaking ball, but if he develops a workable one, it could pay off handsomely’

Ok, done defending Cubs new regime, and back to celebrating Hawks big win in LA.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 06, 2013, 11:02:22 pm
One thought too is Zastryzny is probably a good candidate to go below slot, since he wasn't guaranteed to be a second rounder, and we might be able to go below slot on Bryant.

We might have some serious money to throw at a third rounder if our first two guys go below slot.

 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 06, 2013, 11:06:55 pm
Several catchers picked as the 2nd round wound down.  But I think there are still four catchers left that BA ranked in their top 72 guys.  Seems a given that Cubs will grab a catcher pretty soon.  But maybe they don't love any of them, and figure somebody OK will still be left later? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 06, 2013, 11:10:00 pm
Two summers ago, Bryant struck out 51 times in 130 ABs in the Cape Cod League in his first crack against top competition using a wood bat.  That's worrisome to me and I would call it a red flag.

This guy isn't some sure-fire Hall of Famer that a lot of people are making him out to be.  He is yet another right-handed slugger in a long line of Cubs high draft right-handed slugging picks.  Yeah, he has some walks at San Diego, against inferior competition, with little else in the lineup.  He has HUGE power numbers, against inferior competition with composite bats.

He was rated in the top three because this draft, after the two top-of-the-rotation arms, is weak.

Take a look at the state of the pitching in the Cubs organization.  It's pathetic.  It's worse than pathetic.  They had an opportunity to add a potential ace tonight and instead chose to g@mble on a slugger that is going to end up playing a corner outfield spot down the road.

Bryant has one and a half tools -- he has legit power and he has a pretty good arm.  You DO NOT take a guy with that few tools with the second pick of the draft.  You just don't.  Not when you have a potential number one starter staring you in the face.  Especially when you have a complete lack of pitching in your system.

It's a mistake.

It's compounded by the fact that every hitter already in their system, with the exception of one, is right-handed.  Almora, Baez, Soler, even their fringy role players like Szczur, Lake and Villanueva all hit right-handed.  The only hitter on the farm currently projected to amount to anything that hits left-handed is Vogelbach.

As of now, they're projected to have as many as seven right-handed hitters in their every day lineup in the not-too distant future.  Only Anthony Rizzo would be hitting from the left side of the plate.  That is a BIG problem.

I know that doesn't have anything to do with anything, I just hate that and while I'm p!ssed off, I thought I'd get it off my chest.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 06, 2013, 11:20:04 pm
I'm not at all sold on Gray as a future ace.  Bryant may or may not pan out, but I don't fault Hoyerstein for taking what they considered to be the best position player in the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 06, 2013, 11:30:12 pm
This guy isn't some sure-fire Hall of Famer that a lot of people are making him out to be. 

Could you give us two or three examples of people who are making him out to be a sure-fire Hall of Famer?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 06, 2013, 11:32:00 pm
I'm not the biggest Bryant fan in the world, but I don't think this is the worst pick in the world either.  Bryant in Cape Cod was coming of his freshman year and he struck out a fair amount in the conference as well.  His K's dropped the next year.  Even if his hit tool is so so and he's a .250 hitter with power and walks that's a pretty good player.  If he can hit .280 then we have a really good player.  I would have loved a pitcher and really wanted Appel, but the systems isn't devoid of arms.  Johnson, Paniagua, Vizcaino, Underwood, Maples all have plus stuff.  Blackburn, Scott, Hendricks, Wells, McNeil, Conway are all varying degrees of interesting.  The Cubs are pretty devoid of lefties, but it will be interesting to follow Zastrynzy to see where he's throwing and if Burke could move up to AA. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on June 06, 2013, 11:46:44 pm
StrikeZone, this is an opinion board and we are all here for the same basic reason, SO thanks for sharing your opinion and "getting it off your chest." This should be a good place for that.

Strike, you may be right and my best guess is that Jason McLeod would agree that you may possibly be right.

However, I don't think getting even the 2nd pick exactly right will make or break the organization, whereas being MORE right than other teams will...I personally believe that's already occurring and will continue to occur, whether or not Bryant turns out better than Gray or otherwise.  Unfortunately, most other teams had a head start.

Hopefully, this will be a good draft and last year's will have been, too...we will know in a few years.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 06, 2013, 11:55:52 pm
Look, I hope Kris Bryant goes out and hits 500 homers for the Cubs, even though he spells Chris with a K.  We all want him to succeed.  I would never actively root against the Cubs.  I'm not Jes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 12:05:25 am
Like most everybody else here, the 2nd round guy was off my radar acreen. But BA had 15 2nd round drafted guys rated lower and I'm sure there is a wide difference of opinion among scouts about a few dozen guys in this range.  Not sure what all the agony is about.

Also, I wonder if drafting Bryant makes it slightly easier to trade a top prospect bat when David Price comes on the market? And maybe no-Appel enhances desire to re-sign Garza long term?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 12:10:09 am
There should be no ITYS about any drafted guy (well maybe other than Hayden Simpson) that anybody here boosted or blasted---draft is a crapshoot and I think everyone knows that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 07, 2013, 12:24:32 am
There should be no ITYS about any drafted guy (well maybe other than Hayden Simpson) that anybody here boosted or blasted---draft is a crapshoot and I think everyone knows that.

And Vitters over Matt Wieters.  That was awful at the time and still needs to be ridiculed.  There's still no catching in the system and Wieters is an multi time all-star and gold glove winner.  Meanwhile, Vitters can't stay healthy and still hasn't made it to the Majors even as a legitimate bench player.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on June 07, 2013, 12:29:05 am
I feel for Chris, who was so clearly hoping for Gray.  Now he'll have to compound the agony by watching Gray fly through the minors while Bryant struggles to become Pat Burrell.  Maybe Gray will get hurt.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 12:36:25 am
Quote
It became Bryant vs. Gray when the Houston Astros took Mark Appel with the first overall pick, though there were signals that the Cubs weren’t completely sold on the Stanford University right-hander or convinced that his ceiling would be close enough to a No. 1 starter.

“We felt the best player for the Cubs long-term looking at those two players was Kris Bryant,” McLeod said. “Don’t get me wrong: We thought all three of those guys were very talented players who deserved to go 1-2-3 in the draft.

“We just made the pick that we felt was right for this organization for now and for the long-term.”

In the final analysis, Gray’s positive test for the stimulant Adderall may have called a college kid’s judgment into question, but it wasn’t a deciding factor once the story went viral in the media.

“We looked pretty deep into that and ultimately it didn’t effect how we felt about him as a player and as a person,” McLeod said. “That really had no bearing on it, other than we had to do more due diligence and figure more things out. We certainly wish health and success to Jon. He was very open with us and the Rockies got themselves a very talented player.”

...


But for this front office, a pitcher at No. 2 would have had to create clear separation from the best position player.

The Cubs couldn’t ignore Bryant, who began the season viewed as a potential top-10 pick but soared up the draft board, and into the North Side rebuilding plan, after generating 31 homers and 62 RBI in 62 games for the Toreros.

“We were never going to go into a draft to draft on need,” McLeod said. “We talked a lot about acquiring pitching and getting power pitching and certainly those players are out there in this draft and they went (No.) 1 and (No.) 3. But ultimately we’re going to make the decisions that we feel are best for this organization, both in the short- and long-term, and Kris Bryant was the player for us.


http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/why-cubs-bet-bryant-and-against-gray-no-2-pick
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 01:16:13 am
And Vitters over Matt Wieters.  That was awful at the time and still needs to be ridiculed.  There's still no catching in the system and Wieters is an multi time all-star and gold glove winner.  Meanwhile, Vitters can't stay healthy and still hasn't made it to the Majors even as a legitimate bench player.


The 2007 draft was kind of an oddball period, I think. Sam Zell bought the Trib/Cubs two months before the draft and, as I understand it, he wouldn't let the baseball guys consider Wieters because of his bonus demands. 

Wieters ended up signing for $6 and Vitters for $3.2 (and Parker for $2.1 who was the alternative to Vitters).

That was unfortunate business for sure and Wieters would be a huge plus for the Cubs, obviously, although I don't think he's turned out offensively as good as some thought with his career .747 OPS to date (but much better defensively goes without saying). 

Put another way, the Wieters non-pick doesn't seem to have been mostly a baseball decision (as I understand it). 

I know that Simpson signed well below slot but seems like Wilken actually thought he was the best guy with that pick, inexplicably.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 01:19:54 am
Here are the BA highest rated guys going into day two.  A bunch of these guys are considered tough signs.

No hand-wringing if Cubs don't take any of these guys.  :'(

25. Jon Denney, c, Yukon (Okla.) HS
34. Connor Jones, rhp, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va.
35. Kyle Serrano, rhp, Farragut (Tenn.) HS
37. Bobby Wahl, rhp, Mississippi
42. Cord Sandberg, of, Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla.
48. Rowdy Tellez, 1b, Elk Grove (Calif.) HS
49. Trey Masek RHP 4YR Texas Tech
50. Andrew Mitchell RHP 4YR Texas Christian
58. Ryan Boldt OF HS Red Wing (Minn.) HS
61. Kent Emanuel LHP 4YR North Carolina
63. Tyler O’Neill C HS Garibaldi SS, Maple Ridge, B.C.
65. Dom Nunez C HS Elk Grove (Calif.) HS
66. Garrett Williams LHP HS Calvary Baptist HS, Shreveport, La.
67. Cavan Biggio 2B HS St. Thomas HS, Houston
68. Jared King OF 4YR Kansas State
70. Chandler Eden RHP HS Yuba City (Calif.) HS
72. Chris Okey C HS Eustis, Fla., HS
73. Tyler Skulina RHP/1B 4YR Kent State
75. Jacoby Jones 2B 4YR Louisiana State
78. A.J. Vanegas RHP 4YR Stanford
79. Michael O’Neill OF 4YR Michigan
80. Jake Brentz LHP HS Parkway South HS, Manchester, Mo..
81. Trey Michalczewski 3B HS Jenks (Okla.) HS
84. Garrett Hampson SS HS Reno (Nev.) HS
85. A.J. Puk LHP HS Washington HS, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 01:22:25 am
Andrew Mitchell at #50 seems kind of interesting.  Seems to project eventually as a reliever and Hoyer has said Cubs want to develop a bullpen with power guys.  I'm all for that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 07, 2013, 01:38:17 am
Could you give us two or three examples of people who are making him out to be a sure-fire Hall of Famer?

Here's one, where an ESPNU analyst called him "a generational player."  That's a little stronger than "Hall of Famer."

http://youtu.be/53L1kC_H1c0 (http://youtu.be/53L1kC_H1c0)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2013, 04:19:04 am
If you thought you could sign him, it would be very hard to pass up Denney with this pick.  The Cubs desperately need catchers, and by most accounts he's a first-round talent.  If you can get Bryant just below slot and save a few hundred K on Little Z (which certainly should be possible considering he was a major reach) there might just be enough to get Denney to sign.  My hope is that's exactly what the Cubs had in mind when they picked at #41, because otherwise it was a real head-scratcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 07, 2013, 06:45:28 am
Bryant... isn't some sure-fire Hall of Famer that a lot of people are making him out to be.

A "lot of people"?

Do any of them post here?

Have any of those posts by them here been part of their effort to "mak(e) him out to be.... (a) sure-fire Hall of Famer"?

If so, I have missed it.  Could you point us to some of the posts which reflected those efforts?

The most I have seen anyone do is to acknowledge the obvious: that the Theocracy is made up of some folks with pretty good track records or drafting well, scouting well, and reaching good consensus decisions in the past with their draft picks; that they have access to much more scouting information than we do; that much as we might love the Cubs, those guys have an even greater incentive to get such decisions right than we do; that all of us have rather limited information about Bryant; and that the general consensus of each of those in the Theocracy is that they are bright, thoughtful and hardworking.

Like the rest of those here who do not seem upset by the pick, I have no problem deferring to the Theocracy's judgement on this.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 07, 2013, 06:55:02 am
“We felt the best player for the Cubs long-term looking at those two players was Kris Bryant,” McLeod said....  Gray’s positive test for the stimulant Adderall... wasn’t a deciding factor....  “We looked pretty deep into that and ultimately it didn’t effect how we felt about him as a player and as a person,” McLeod said. “That really had no bearing on it, other than we had to do more due diligence and figure more things out.”

Damb.... who ever would have seen something like that?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 07, 2013, 07:00:09 am
The 2007 draft was kind of an oddball period, I think. Sam Zell bought the Trib/Cubs two months before the draft and, as I understand it, he wouldn't let the baseball guys consider Wieters because of his bonus demands. 

Wieters ended up signing for $6 and Vitters for $3.2 (and Parker for $2.1 who was the alternative to Vitters).

That was unfortunate business for sure and Wieters would be a huge plus for the Cubs, obviously, although I don't think he's turned out offensively as good as some thought with his career .747 OPS to date (but much better defensively goes without saying).

A better pick for the Cubs, but not a better pick for Zell.

Short term ownership is not good for a team, and before the Ricketts family bought the Cubs, ownership had acquired something of a short-term mindset for a few years, with that problem illustrated in a series of drafts.  One of the most promising things we have seen in years is the 2011 draft, and Ricketts not just willing to spend heavily on the draft, but seemingly eager to do so.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 07, 2013, 07:02:24 am
Here's one, where an ESPNU analyst called him "a generational player."  That's a little stronger than "Hall of Famer."

His mother likely also shares that sentiment.... but anyone who posts here who has expressed it?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:08:19 am
Quote
Here's one, where an ESPNU analyst called him "a generational player."  That's a little stronger than "Hall of Famer."

I think he was talking about him being a generational player in college baseball, not the sport of baseball in general, and considering how many college teams Bryant outhomered this year, he's probably right about that.

Besides that's just some 3rd rate announcer from ESPNU anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 07, 2013, 07:27:36 am
I'm not Jes.
Whew.  Glad you cleared that up.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 08:41:12 am
Keith Law:

Quote
Best available

1. Kyle Serrano, RHP | Farragut (Tenn.) HS
2. Jon Denney, C | Yukon (Okla.) HS
3. Connor Jones, RHP | Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, Va.)
4. Andrew Mitchell, RHP | TCU
5. Wil Crowe, RHP | Pigeon Forge (Tenn.) HS
6. Ryan Boldt, OF | Red Wing (Minn.) HS
7. Jacob Brentz, LHP | Parkway South HS (Manchester, Mo.)
8. Garrett Williams, LHP | Calvary Baptist HS (Shreveport, La.)
9. Cord Sandberg, OF | Manatee HS (Bradenton, Fla.)
10. Dustin Driver, RHP | Wenatchee (Wash.) HS

Most of these players slid on signability concerns; Jones explicitly told scouts he would not sign and was going to Virginia, while Brentz was reportedly looking for a big bonus to buy him out of Missouri. Mitchell has worked as a starter but too many teams may view him as a reliever, and he was under-scouted early in the spring when he was a little-used piece in TCU's bullpen.

There were also some injury issues that caused a couple of these guys to fall. There are serious concerns about Crowe's medicals, as he has had ACL issues in both knees, while Boldt missed much of the season with minor knee injuries.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these guys, especially Crowe, Sandberg and Driver, go early on Friday with deals cut overnight or in the morning.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 08:46:43 am
Is the 3rd round about when teams generally start to go for organizational need as opposed for BPA? That could make Denny really tempting. Of course, the Cubs also need power pitchers. . It would be really surprising if they went for someone other than Denny or a pitcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2013, 08:56:05 am
I think the question with Denney is signability more than need.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2013, 09:10:24 am
Skeptics can rest easy.  Rogers agrees with the Bryant pick:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/ct-spt-0607-rogers-draft-baseball-20130607,0,137871.column
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 07, 2013, 09:14:00 am
Patrick Mooney has an extended audio interview with Bryant that has some interesting comments.  Among other things, he talks about learning to hit the ball where it's pitched, particularly in the last year, and that he tries to focus on hitting mistake pitches by pitchers (and how he can some day tell his kids and grandkids that got to sit and talk with Theo Epstein when he was in college).

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/cubs-believe-bryant-will-be-ready-impact (http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/cubs-believe-bryant-will-be-ready-impact)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 10:27:34 am
Bryant sounds like a really nice, likable kid.  Nice, likable, $6-millionaires can have lots of temptations from wine, women, and song, of course.  So I hope that he's well grounded and goes at things the right way. 

Will be really interesting to see how things go.  It's been noted that he was the only guy on his team, so perhaps he got walks because nobody wanted to pitch to him.  Perhaps in the pros he won't be that much of a walker after all.  On the other hand, perhaps he'll get a lot more pitches to hit and the average won't be that challenging. 

He's K'd a lot, so I admit that's a worry.  Can't hit HR's when you aren't squaring the ball.  But, I'm good to trust the scouting on this.  Different position, different personality, but I'd kind of imagine a Derrek Lee type guy.  Lee had that one weird .335 batting-average MVP type season, but on his career he was a .281 hitter, with lots of K's (averaged 135K's per 162 games), but took a lot of walks and hit a lot of HR's.  And was a tall player, but played good defense and had no trouble getting down for ground balls.  I'd hope that Bryant might be that kind of a hitter, perhaps even better with even more HR's and perhaps more walks as well.  Obviously he might also turn out to be Brandon Sing, too;  light-tower power, but too big to play 3B, and movement just too hard to hit with his long levers. 

Every HR is a hit.  If a guy can actually hit the ball on the nose often enough to hit 35 HR's, its not THAT easy to be a terrible-average guy.  Yes, Carlos Pena proves it's possible.  But my guess is that if Bryant can actually hit the ball solidly often enough to be hitting 30+ HR's, then he'll probably be hitting the ball solidly enough often enough to hit .260+. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 07, 2013, 10:37:00 am
Bryant was drafted out of the University of San Diego, my old school, a school which didn't have much of a baseball program when I was there (78-81).

In fact until 2003, the program had only had one player drafted in its history (even more interesting, that one player was catcher John Wathan, who had 2800 career AB in the majors.... which so far is more playing time than all of the 42 draft picks from the school combined).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 07, 2013, 11:00:19 am
Canadian Baseball Network story on Rob Zastryzny

Quote
According to the Perfect Game Scouting Service, Zastryzny’s stock has risen steadily throughout the spring as evaluators have seen an improved fastball that now tops out at 94 mph with excellent sinking and running life at times. And, of course, his performance at the SEC Tournament didn’t hurt his case.

http://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/articles/zastryzny-top-missou-tiger-top-canuck/ (http://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/articles/zastryzny-top-missou-tiger-top-canuck/)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2013, 11:43:35 am
FWIW, Sveum thinks that Bryant will be a competent ML third baseman:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-cubs-draft-pick-can-play-3rd-in-majors-sveum-says-20130607,0,6207671.story

I'm not sure I understand the big problem with a tall person playing third.  Perhaps it makes it a little tougher to get down on a hot smash and you might give up a little bit of range.  But it seems like a relatively minor issue to me, particularly on a team with a SS (Castro) that has a lot of lateral range.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:06:12 pm
Cal Ripken turned out OK as a tall 3B (and tall SS for that matter).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: buff on June 07, 2013, 12:08:46 pm
Is a fair comparison Troy Glaus?  I would take that all day long.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:13:53 pm
Round 3

Quote
214    Jacob Hannemann [-]    OF    4YR    Brigham Young    Utah
Drafted by the Royals in the 48th round out of high school in 2010, Hannemann headed to Brigham Young to play football and baseball. He went on his two-year Mormon mission in the spring of his freshman year, then showed his natural talent by hitting for the cycle in the team's fall alumni game when he returned. A cornerback for the football team, Hannemann is 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds with loose athleticism. He is a well above-average runner and has some work to do defensively, but he has the tools and instincts to stay in center field, though his arm grades out at the bottom of the scouting scale. A lefthanded hitter, he has a compact swing with natural strength. He needs to work on his pitch recognition, but has performed well considering he was away from the game for two years. Scouts love his makeup and intensity on the field. Already 22, Hannemann is the rare draft-eligible freshman. He's a high-risk, high-reward pick with Jacoby Ellsbury upside.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:14:44 pm
Hannemann was actually attending BYU on a football scholarship.

Quote
While Hannemann is enjoying an outstanding season on the baseball diamond for BYU, he is attending school on a football scholarship. The speedy Hannemann is playing so well, he is expected to be taken in the early rounds of the Major League Baseball first-year player draft June 6-8.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865579976/BYU-baseball-Freshman-star-Jacob-Hannemann-could-give-up-football-to-pursue-pro-baseball-career.html?pg=all (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865579976/BYU-baseball-Freshman-star-Jacob-Hannemann-could-give-up-football-to-pursue-pro-baseball-career.html?pg=all)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:16:29 pm
MLB scouting report:

Quote
Hannemann is only a freshman, but don't let that fool you. The two-sport standout went on his Mormon mission before heading to college, making him 22 years old. Also a football player, Hannemann has some athletic tools to work with, even if they are a bit raw. The WCC Freshman of the Year hit well in his first taste of college ball, impressive considering he hadn't played in two years. He has the chance to hit and run well and could be a solid center field prospect for a team willing to be patient.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 12:19:54 pm
So he's comped to Ellsbury -- but, seriously, I was really hoping for the "waves of arms". There are some power arms still on the board. This pick is officially weird for an organization with Almora, Brett Jackson, Ceasar, Ha, Dunston and the other kid whose name escapes me who is the plus defender and good athlete.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 07, 2013, 12:21:53 pm
Sure seems like Bryant is going significantly over-slot or they are going to take somebody after the 10th round that is going to cost a lot of money. 

BYU had a quote by Epstein that Hannemann would look going 0-5 than most people going 5-5.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:22:25 pm
Epstein seemed to like Hannemann a lot.

Quote
General manager Theo Epstein, the architect of the championship Boston teams who now works for the Chicago Cubs, apparently marveled at Hannemann's fluidness. He could look better going 0-for-5 than some players that go 5-for-5, Howard recounts Epstein saying.

Story on Hanneman two days ago:

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-hannemann-likely-to-get-drafted-high-in-baseball/article_50ac6e36-ceb5-11e2-95ee-001a4bcf887a.html

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 07, 2013, 12:22:25 pm
Serrano has already announced that he's going to play for his dad at UT...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:25:10 pm
So he's comped to Ellsbury -- but, seriously, I was really hoping for the "waves of arms". There are some power arms still on the board. This pick is officially weird for an organization with Almora, Brett Jackson, Ceasar, Ha, Dunston and the other kid whose name escapes me who is the plus defender and good athlete.

Hey they're taking who they think is BPA and not really worrying about need, like they said they would. 

Besides, the only one on that list who's really established himself on that list as a real top prospect is Almora.  The rest is just prospect depth.  Never hurts to keep adding to depth if you like someone enough.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 07, 2013, 12:27:58 pm
Very surprising the Cubs would take an OF in tbe third round. Expected a pitcher or maybe catcher.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:56:27 pm
Cubs take Tyler Skulina, RHP, Kent State in Round 4.

Quote
Skulina played a key role in Kent State’s Cinderella run to the 2012 College World Series and has taken on an even bigger role this spring as the Golden Flashes ace. He relies on his fastball-curveball combination to attack hitters and isn’t afraid to challenge them. Skulina’s fastball sits in the low-90s and runs in on right-handers. His curveball has good break and should be a Major League average offering. He uses his 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame to create a good downhill plane for both pitches. Skulina needs to develop his changeup to reach his potential.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 12:58:23 pm
By the way, Baseball America's new website is just awful.  Absolutely terrible.

Skulina is their #73 overall prospect, by the way.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 12:59:26 pm
forgot how fast and furious these 2nd day picks come.  I like guys with heavy FBs.
Did that sound inappropriate?
And, yeah,  with the BYU OFer, after about 45 seconds of reflection, he sounds like an intriguing guy -- especially given how much time they had to consider who to take, and how immeasurably smarter Theo and Jed are than I am.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 01:00:52 pm
I'd post BA's scouting report on Skulina if the website would actually recognized that I'm already logged in.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 01:04:22 pm
video profile of Hahneman: a few things stand out-- he really is a super fluid athlete. He's super fast. And his mom is pretty good looking. Wonder if Jed/Theo take all of that into account?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHomG9ACLwU&feature=player_embedded
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 01:06:07 pm
The Cubs are going to spend their money, no question about that.  What they don't superslot now, they'll superslot later. 

These are all scouting picks, of that I have no doubt.  Hannemann doesn't sound like he'll be underslot at all, although I don't imagine he'll cost much overslot.  But I think these are just straight scouting picks, whether they agree or disagree with BA or not. 

There are probably a bunch of talented possibilities in these early rounds of the draft, why pay a bunch of superslot if you can get a very good prospect around slot.  But perhaps as the rounds go by, perhaps it's harder and harder to get high-upside guys at slot, and that's when you need to superslot?  Sooner or later. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 01:09:40 pm
video profile of Hahneman: a few things stand out-- he really is a super fluid athlete. He's super fast. And his mom is pretty good looking. Wonder if Jed/Theo take all of that into account?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHomG9ACLwU&feature=player_embedded

Not sure when that video was made.  But at 2:06, it says he was hitting .413 with .696 slugging since conference play began.  Perhaps that was 6 games into the conference, so it may mean nothing.  But could also be that his net seasonal numbers were depressed by some early "raw" play, and that he was getting better and better as the season proceeded such that his conference numbers are more illustrative of his future potential.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2013, 01:12:14 pm
Is Hannemann signable?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 01:25:47 pm
Quote
Cubs high on Hannemann. Thru 2/26: .111/.179/.139/.318 w/3 BB, 12 K in 40 PA; After 2/26: .385/.453/.631/1.084 with 20 BB, 23 K in 204 PA
Carrie Muskat
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 01:27:40 pm
P2 from a Salt Lake City newspaper before the draft:

 (Hannemann's) been showing off his skills for the last week, his family paying out of pocket (in accordance with NCAA guidelines) for workouts with the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics and L.A. Dodgers. Shagging fly balls in Wrigley Field was quite a thrill, but Hannemann says any team that drafts him will be his new favorite.

The door isn’t closed at BYU. Bronco Mendenhall has kept in touch with the family, saying he’d love to have his cornerback on the field this fall. But the chances that Hannemann will stay are shrinking. The family is looking for an undisclosed minimum amount of money, and it’s looking more like a major-league club will oblige them.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 07, 2013, 01:28:37 pm
Thanks, shasson.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 01:41:26 pm
5th round, RHP Trey Masek from Texas Tech:

Masek had a very strong summer in the Cape Cod League and it was carrying over as Texas Tech's Saturday starter, though some arm soreness in late March kept him out of action for a spell. Assuming health, the slightly undersized right-hander will show three pretty good pitches. He can run his fastball up to 94 mph, throws a solid curveball and has a good feel for a sinking changeup. His funky delivery adds deception to his stuff, though his command can be inconsistent. He gets high marks for his aggressiveness and poise on the mound. That, plus Masek's size and injury history, have some thinking his future might be in a big league bullpen.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 07, 2013, 01:44:41 pm
100% college so far.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Robb on June 07, 2013, 01:46:16 pm
Go Cougars!!  I have two daughters at BYU right now so very cool to have the Cubs draft their best player.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:01:51 pm
Trey Masek was BA's #49 overall player.  Kind of interesting that he dropped to the 5th round.

I think it just goes to show there's probably a lot more variance in how scouts are viewing the players this year than there has been in the past.  I know BA has mentioned that a couple of times even before the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:03:20 pm
Really nice season for Masek in the Big 12.

Player      era     w-l     app-gs     cg     sho     sv     ip     h     r     er     bb     so     2b     3b     hr     ab     b/avg     wp     hbp     bk     sfa     sha
Masek, Trey      1.82     5-2     11-11     3     1/0     0     79.0     56     18     16     22     69     10     1     0     272     .206     3     4     2     2     7

http://www.texastech.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2012-2013/teamcume.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:08:07 pm
Quote
48. Trey Masek, rhp
Texas Tech
Primarily a reliever as a sophomore, Masek emerged as one of the best righthanded starting pitching prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer. He carried that momentum over to the start of this season, when he allowed just one earned run and 21 hits in his first 40 innings. He hasn’t been as sharp since a bout with rotator-cuff tendinitis sidelined him for a month. Masek throws strikes with four offerings, working primarily off an 89-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 and a curveball with some sharpness to it. He also has a short cutter/slider and a changeup. New Texas Tech pitching coach Ray Hayward, the 10th overall pick in 1983 and a former big leaguer, has done a nice job of helping him smooth out his delivery, which in turn has improved his command. Masek’s relatively small stature (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) and monthlong layoff do lead to some concerns about his durability, though he still figures to go in the second round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:09:02 pm
Quote
74. Tyler Skulina, rhp
Kent State
Skulina had aspirations of going in the first five rounds as an Ohio high schooler in 2010, but a back injury and his Virginia commitment dropped him to the Athletics in the 46th round. He spend just one semester with the Cavaliers before transferring to Kent State, helping the Golden Flashesmake their first-ever College World Series appearance last June. He has been inconsistent this spring, allowing 11 earned runs in two innings against Louisville, yet carrying a 95 mph fastball and a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Miami (Ohio). Skulina shows first-round stuff when he’s at his best. The 6-foot-6, 225-pounder holds the velocity on a 91-96 mph fastball with tailing action, and he misses more bats with a tight 80-84 mph slider. He also uses a curveball to give hitters a different look and is working on a changeup. His up-and-down season is the product of inconsistent control and command, which likely will make him available in the third round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:10:11 pm
The last two picks definitely seem like part of the "draft power arms to fill out your bullpen" type picks that Hoyer was talking about the other day.

Zasnasty might also be viewed that way too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 07, 2013, 02:15:51 pm
ABTY mentioned that 2/3 went underslot so tat 6-10 wouldn't have to be senior signs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:20:18 pm
ABTY mentioned that 2/3 went underslot so tat 6-10 wouldn't have to be senior signs.

So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway)?

Not sure that kind of thinking is very sound, if what ABTY is saying is really true.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 02:23:22 pm
Keith Law chat:


choices of Skulina/Masek: solid value?

Klaw

Skulina's got a huge arm, good value at that round. Masek was on my top 100, future reliever but a solid one.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 02:25:57 pm
Jayson Stark chat:


Eric (Chicago)


Jayson, some quick thoughts on the Cubs selection of Kris Bryant yesterday?
Jayson Stark
  (1:32 PM)


I loved that pick. I don't do much draft coverage anymore. But everybody I talked to raved about Kris Bryant as being by far the most advanced and most predictable bat in the draft. These are the kinds of players that are now hardest to find in this draft. So I liked the decision not to take an arm there when a bat like this was on the board.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:27:03 pm
Quote
But everybody I talked to raved about Kris Bryant as being by far the most advanced and most predictable bat in the draft.

I guess the scouts have to think he has more than power and arm tools, then.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 07, 2013, 02:28:03 pm
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway) instead of seniors?

Not sure that kind of thinking is very sound, if what ABTY is saying is really true.

I think they would be looking for talent that has dropped due to signing.  If you inverted the Cubs picks and went Masek, Skulina, Z, BYU I don't think anybody would be complaining.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:33:38 pm
Round 6:  Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine

Quote
The big right-hander served as Pepperdine's Saturday starter in 2012, then moved into the Friday slot as a junior, continuing to show the big arm that has always intrigued scouts. His fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range, and he backs it up with a curve and changeup. He's shown gradual improvement over time with the Waves and while his results as a junior have been up and down, he's the kind of college arm that could sneak into the back end of the first round. After his sophomore season, Frazier pitched in the Cape Cod League to cap off 2012. Even with his uneven performances, his size and arm strength were still getting a lot of interest as the Draft approached.

BA's #159 ranked prospect
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:35:24 pm
The Cubs have spent a lot of time in the West Coast Conference this year.  San Diego, BYU, and now Pepperdine.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:35:56 pm
Baseball America:

Quote
159. Scott Frazier, rhp, Pepperdine

Frazier’s physical, projectable frame and big arm strength in high school prompted some scouts to predict he could become a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick after three years at Pepperdine if he smoothed out his delivery and refined his command. That has not happened. After an injury-marred freshman year, Frazier went 7-5, 3.39 as a sophomore and was 4-5, 4.35 this spring. He shows premium velocity, touching 94-96 mph early in games and settling in at 91-93 with late life, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and lacks command. Frazier struggles to sync up his 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame, collapsing on the front side and pitching uphill. His arm action is funky and violent, leading to long-term concerns about his durability. His curveball flashes plus, but he has difficulty throwing it for a strike, and hitters are often able to pick it up early and lay off the pitch in the dirt. He mixes in a solid changeup now and then, but he relies on his fastball and curve. Most scouts think he’ll wind up in the bullpen, where his aggressiveness will be an asset, and he can be effectively wild in short stints.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:36:47 pm
Well we have our wave of pitching now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 02:41:07 pm
Article on Frazier from a start in April.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/friday-roundup-marco-gonzales-bests-scott-frazier/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 02:42:08 pm
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway)?

Not sure that kind of thinking is very sound, if what ABTY is saying is really true.

I don't believe that's really true.  The Cubs have money, they didn't need to go underslot in 2/3 in order to pay slot (or above) in the $10K rounds. So, I wouldn't assume that either picks 2 or 3 will actually be underslot, either.  Or if so, by any significant amount.  Obviously those weren't superslot picks, but I totally assume those were just straightout scouting picks.  Smart or dumb, I believe the Cub scouts just believed that Zastrysmy and Hannemann were good scouting selections at those slot.

But I do think that there is good strategy in NOT putting yourself into $10K mode in rounds 6-10.  There are bunches of pitchers with good arms who could be good, and who could have been 3rd/4th/5th round guys.  If everybody else is stuck drafting $10K seniors, then if you can keep grabbing 4th-round talents in rounds 6-10 you can have a free market to get the guys you want. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 02:45:34 pm
Frazier and Skulina sound like a couple of nice projects for pitching coach Johnson. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 02:59:25 pm
craig, I think you're right that Rounds 2 and 3 were straightforward scouting picks.

If what that ABTY guy is suggesting is true, though, that just seems like a shortsighted way to approach things.  It's much better to be sacrificing quality on your Rounds 8-10 round guys to save bonus pool money instead of your Rounds 2-3 guys.

Of course, I know that maybe we took the scouting guys we wanted in Rounds 2-3 and we were able to save money on them as an added bonus.  I guess that could be the case, but the old saying goes, you typically get what you pay for.  Even if they were straight scouting picks, if they're still willing to take nontrivial subslot bonuses, the conclusion you'd have to reach from that is that they were willing to accept smaller bonuses because they knew other teams didn't like them as much as we did.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:06:53 pm
Round 7:

Quote
245. David Garner, rhp, Michigan State

Garner has one of the stronger arms in the Big 10 Conference, reaching 94 mph with his fastball and flashing a plus slider. He sits in the low 90s with his heater, though it’s not overpowering because it lacks life and his long arm action allows hitters to see it well coming out of his hand. He also tends to drift offline from the plate, which costs him command and leads to inconsistent results. His best outing of the season came when he allowed one run in 8 1/3 innings against a strong Kentucky lineup on March 9, but Garner also failed to win any of his first six starts in conference play. He has made improvements to his changeup, though he projects as a reliever because he’s 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds. His stuff should play up and could become more reliable in shorter stints. A 33rd-round choice by the Reds from a Michigan high school in 2010, Garner could become Michigan State’s highest draft pick since the Mets took Bobby Malek in the fourth round in 2002.

BA's #245 ranked player in May.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:07:45 pm
MLB scouting report:

Quote
At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, David Garner's size doesn't intimidate hitters. However, his slight frame is not an indication of the power the right-hander possesses. Garner owns a fastball that can touch 95 mph, while his hard-breaking slider is his primary out-pitch. He has a free delivery and aggressive approach, and his electric stuff has led to 192 strikeouts in 217 2/3 innings pitched for Michigan State during his three years in East Lansing. At times, Garner can lose his control, as he walked 27 batters this year, while also hitting six and throwing 10 wild pitches. In his first two seasons at Michigan State, Garner was in and out of the rotation, but he made all 14 appearances as a starter during his junior year. He went 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA, lifting his career numbers to 15-12 and 3.97, respectively. Garner stood out in the Cape Cod League each of the past two summers, especially in 2012, when he was named to the West Division All-Star Team. In 43 1/3 innings for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks, Garner registered 41 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA, both of which were good for top 20 in the league. Before becoming a Spartan, Garner was drafted by the Reds in the 33rd round (No. 997 overall) of the 2010 Draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:11:11 pm
If this is the approach McLeod and Madison used when they were in San Diego, maybe this has something to do with the Padres bullpen always being so good.

Lots of hard throwing college pitchers in this draft.  Garner and Masek are undersized hard throwers, while Frazier and Skulina seem like 6'7" and 6'6" project types.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 03:42:39 pm
I really am digging how they've tweaked their draft model since last year. Like JR said, all those power college arms can ultimately help the MLB team have a cost-effective bullpen of power arms (plus, 2nd and 4th round picks, at least, certainly have upside as mid-rotation starters). I think each guy has been his team's Friday starter -- the de facto ace.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:51:25 pm
Cubs take Sam Wilson, LHP, Lamar CC in Colorado.  He's BA's #358 prospect.

Started out at University of New Mexico before having some academic issues.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:51:55 pm
Quote
Wilson was drafted by the Rangers in the 20th round in 2010, but he chose to attend New Mexico. He was a two-way player as a freshman, but academic issues forced him to redshirt last season and he ultimately transferred to Lamar Community College this year. Wilson has continued as a two-way player for the Runnin’ Lopes, but his professional future is on the mound. He throws his fastball around 90 mph and he has touched 94 mph in the past. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be Major League-average offerings. Wilson is athletic, has good size (he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and repeats his delivery well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 03:52:25 pm
Well the Cubs started taking seniors in Round 8 last year, so at least for this round, it looks like they're still playing it straight.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 04:22:14 pm
Quote
Zastryzny credits the coaching staff for helping develop his pitching arsenal, which includes an 86-88 mph fastball with tailing action, a harder 94-95 mph fastball, a change-up (which he calls his best pitch) and a promising slider he just started working on six months ago.  “Some days it’s inconsistent, but it can be a plus pitch and I’m going to get it there,” Zastryzny said of his slider. “The slider has best potential.”


The recency of the slider is interesting.  The Cubs obviously share Z's optimism about the slider, otherwise they'd not have picked him so high.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 07, 2013, 04:27:17 pm

The recency of the slider is interesting.  The Cubs obviously share Z's optimism about the slider, otherwise they'd not have picked him so high.
It also means that his elbow hasn't suffered years of abuse.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 04:39:34 pm
Cubs take their first high schooler, OF Charcer Burks from Travis HS near Houston in Round 9. 

No BA or MLB scouting report on him.  He's the 80th ranked prospect in Texas according to BA.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 04:43:05 pm
Brooks Twitter page:

https://twitter.com/charcerburks
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 04:46:43 pm
Burks tweeted that the Blackhawks are his favorite team to watch -- before he was drafted. Might be my new favorite Cubs' prospect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 07, 2013, 05:30:56 pm
I like the Hannemann, Masek, Skulina and Garner picks from today.

Dunno who compared Hannemann to Szczur but I don't think that's really accurate.  Szczur was a football player that also played baseball.  Even though Hannemann is on a football scholarship, he's a baseball player that plays football.  Anybody that goes two-plus years without playing competitive baseball and then puts up that kind of season, albeit in a conference that's down the totem pole, is impressive.  Whether or not that player is worth a second round pick, we'll see.  But I like the player and the reports I've read.

When it comes to Masek, I really like the way he looks in the videos.  He sorta reminds me of Roy Oswalt.  Anybody that can go two years in the Big 12 and not surrender a home run is OK in my book.  I know a lot of experts are projecting him as a reliever but I hope he sticks as a starter because it would be nice to have a super anti-homer starting pitcher in the rotation some day.

Skulina has some pretty good upside as a starter, too.  This is the kind of guy Derek Johnson was hired to refine.

Finally, with all the chaos in the Cubs bullpen, Garner should move up pretty quickly (*knock on wood*).

All in all, not too bad for a second day after a questionable first night.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 05:37:30 pm
Senior pick in round 10.  Sure doesn't seem that they've exhausted their discretionary money yet, so I'm surprised.  They must have some plans to use what's left and the extra $100K saved here tomorrow. 

I wonder how much, if any, overslot it will take for the college pitchers in rounds 4-7?  Any one of those four guys might think they could elevate to 2nd round (or higher) with a good year.  So they might all be fine with slot, but perhaps one or more will require some overslot.  Still, I can't believe the money is close to being exhausted yet. 

They ought to be able to tally things up now, pound the phones tonight, figure out who'll sign and for how much, and decide how to divvy up whatever is left tomorrow.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 05:50:28 pm
Quote
The Cubs called Thursday night to let Jacob Hannemann know they planned to draft him in the third round. Negotiations still are forthcoming, but Howard Hannemann estimated his son stands to make more than $700,000 by signing with the team.

"We never dreamed he would go this high," Hannemann said. "The numbers make sense. We thought it would be a tougher decision."


http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/sports/56427109-77/hannemann-byu-draft-cubs.html.csp
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 05:50:36 pm
Quote
Still, I can't believe the money is close to being exhausted yet.

Yeah our draft has definitely been weird in that respect.  What are we saving our money for?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 07, 2013, 05:58:03 pm
Yeah our draft has definitely been weird in that respect.  What are we saving our money for?
I know we are looking at two Latin players...does that money count against them in this draft?  I don't think so.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 06:09:59 pm
No, a different slot pool.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 06:11:08 pm
Jonathan Gray's Super Regional start against LSU is on ESPN, oh, wait a minute.....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 07, 2013, 06:12:46 pm
Will still look forward to your report.  :'(
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2013, 06:29:27 pm
I love how all these mid round picks are "touch 94", "top out at 96" in the scouting blurbs.  Mysteriously a lot of them are going to be throwing 88-90 once they sign.  Same thing every year.

A mixed bag so far today - a couple of interesting arms, but nothing too exciting frankly, and certainly no overslot candidates of prominence.  I confess I'm baffled as to why the Cubs seem unwilling to draft a catcher with a high draft pick when their system is utterly devoid of high-ceiling catching prospects and has been for years.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 06:51:02 pm
I'm not too worried about not drafting a college catcher anyway.  The college catching crop was supposed to be weak, and usually after the first couple of rounds, college catchers are either missing a bat (Tony Richie, Micah Gibbs, Jake Muyco, etc.) or defense (Jake Fox). 

Maybe we'll grab an interesting high schooler who fell tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 06:53:16 pm
Honestly just watching a little bit of Gray here, he's mostly throwing 93-94 and just popped a 96.  That's pretty good, but whatever high 90's or 100 mph stuff he's shown this year isn't very evident in this start anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2013, 06:56:21 pm
I wasn't especially interested in the college catchers either, JR, but there were quite a few HS catchers with a lot of upside and 1st-round caliber talent we could have drafted, including Denney in the 3rd round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 07:09:48 pm
Yeah our draft has definitely been weird in that respect.  What are we saving our money for?

I've gotta assume that they've got all night, and tomorrow morning, to do lots of calls as with Hannemann.  We'd like to draft you tomorrow; we're thinking $275K, plus a college deal.  Should we bother?  In the old system they'd draft a million of these guys who'd get the $200K+college deals.  I don't see why they couldn't prearrange a whole bunch of those.  I'm not expecting any $1.5 deals, but I think there could be some guys who'd sign for 5th-round money but not for the $100K slot.  Perhaps the new system is actually friendlier for some of this, since perhaps there aren't many teams with money to compete for guys who are clearly beyond $100K slot, but aren't expecting a million either. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 07, 2013, 07:15:36 pm
Agree, deeg, i totally expected a catcher or two today. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:21:35 pm
Jim Callis is supposed to be on WGN Radio right around now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:21:50 pm
Actually he's on right now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:29:20 pm
Callis was a little surprised we didn't take a pitcher with the first pick.  He had a lot of people telling him not to overlook the Cubs taking a hitter, and he says he should have listened to them a little more closely.  He said he would have taken Gray if it was his pick, but while top of the rotation pitchers don't come around very often, 35 homer hitters don't either.

Kaplan said he talked to a former GM scouting for an AL team (Hendry?  Haha.) who said the Cubs were so far away that he'd rather have a bat who impacts the team 155 times a year instead of for 34 starts, and also considering the attrition rate of pitchers, we couldn't afford to blow the pick.

ZasNasty is more than a finesse lefty.  Pitched well but unfortunately pitched for a lousy team and had to be matched against other team's aces on Friday nights.  3-4 good pitches and good competitive edge.  Upside as a #3 starter.

Skulina and Masek are potential bargains.  Callis thinks Skulina could have gone in the 3rd and Masek in the 2nd.  Frazier was looked at as a first or second round guy coming into the year and had a down year. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:38:25 pm
Jed Hoyer now on.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:47:41 pm
Asked about taking a hitter when we need pitching:  Well we need hitting as well.  You have a lot of rounds to get a lot of arms and sometimes it's better to find pitching through volume. (Missed name) saw Bryant and felt good about him staying at third.  We feel like we need makeup to get us to turn the corner, and we got that last year with Almora and this year with Bryant. 

Kaplan brings up the comments from that former GM again (the former GM was a GM in the NL West).  The 155 games vs. 34 starts actually did go into our decision making process, and again we can address pitching through volume.  Best building blocks to build an organization from the ground up are position players.  The attrition rate for pitchers is high.

Biggest need of improvement for Bryant:  Good question . . . will need to work hard to stay at 3B.  6'5" and very athletic but will need to work hard on defense.  We really liked in his interview that he really wants to stay at 3B.  Impressed us because he could easily have said he'd be willing to go to RF or would want to go to RF. 

Kaplan brings up that first 7 picks were from college and asks if it was strategic:  It was strategic.  Last year we took a lot of HS players and was deep there but this year we felt the best thing was to focus on college arms and college players.  You have to take what the draft gives you.  We felt this year, there were a lot of good college arms and college players.  There will be a time and a place for HS arms, but we felt this year, college was the best place to go.

ZasNasty, we like his arm action and athleticism.  We're not focused on W-L record.  Really competed against good teams in the SEC.  Always looking for power arms and clean athletic bodies, and we feel that's what he offers. 

Kaplan had asked Bryant about Scott Boras:  I certainly hope he gets signed soon and it's important for him to get some AB's.  Theo and I have both dealt with Scott in college and the pros, and neither of us has been afraid to take his players.

Starlin Castro has been in the 7th hole:  Dale told us that he wanted to move him down to the 7th hole, and we totally endorsed it.  He's really struggling, and there's been a lot of pressure on him as he's been struggling.  He'll have a .350 or .400 BA in a month sooner or later to get turned around, but moving to the 7th hole is a temporary move.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 07:52:28 pm
Quote
He'll have a .350 or .400 BA in a month sooner or later

That is one optimistic GM.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 07:58:16 pm
That liking "clean athletic" bodies for pitchers might be another reason why they passed on Gray?  I know Gray had to work pretty hard to shed some weight this year, so he might not have had the clean athletic body type that they wanted for a pitcher with the #2 overall pick.

Considering that they liked Appel for the #1 pick, that might have been a separating factor too.  Obviously there was a wide enough gap between Appel and Gray that Bryant was able to fit in between them on their draft list.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 08:00:23 pm
Gray's a real good athlete. He just isn't lean.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 07, 2013, 08:13:17 pm
Of course any GM should do the class thing and not raise the Adderall issue, and no reason to think Theo and Jed would be any different.  But you can bet your ass it was a factor.  There's just no upside for either side in admitting it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 08:39:02 pm
In addition to the collection of college arms they collected today, I had forgotten about the Cuban pitcher they signed in March. He seems like someone who could reach the big league bullpen relatively soon.

From an article in March: "Cuban righty Armando Rivero is the Chicago Cubs’ latest international splurge, costing the organization a healthy $3.1 million signing bonus...(per) Jason McLeod...“He’s a little older guy now (25), but he’s got a really good arm and showed three pitches with a mid-90s fastball,” McLeod said. “So we’re just going to baby-step it and see where he is. Once he’s ready to get out of here, we’ll certainly put him in a starting role somewhere, just to build up his innings.”

He's been at Ext after having a Soler-like layoff in Haiti waiting for his papers. Wonder if he will go to Kane County next?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 08:54:16 pm
Quote
But you can bet your ass it was a factor.

Wasn't a factor for the team drafting directly behind the Cubs. Why would the Cubs care?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 07, 2013, 08:55:34 pm
BTW, Gray had a shutout into the 8th before a triple and double did him in. Still, he mostly dominated one of the best offenses in the country: 7-1/3 -5-2-2-2-9
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 07, 2013, 08:55:39 pm
Keith Law thought we were saving money because Kris Bryant might command a superslot bonus.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 07, 2013, 09:15:02 pm
That was a good outing for Gray vs. LSU. Reminds me of the outing the Missouri Friday night starter had against them. Some lefty with a name beginning with Z....7.2 innings five hits, two runs (one earned), striking out seven and walking just one.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 07, 2013, 09:29:34 pm
That was a good outing for Gray vs. LSU. Reminds me of the outing the Missouri Friday night starter had against them. Some lefty with a name beginning with Z....7.2 innings five hits, two runs (one earned), striking out seven and walking just one.


 ;)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 08:12:43 am
Hey they're taking who they think is BPA and not really worrying about need, like they said they would.

Doing what they said they would?

What kind of nonsense it that?

First Theo says they will patiently build the entire system from the ground up and that there will be no sense of urgency causing them to make big dips in the FA market before they are ready.... and does it.

Then the Theocracy says it will "get a good number of arms," and actually does just that instead of getting a number of good arms.

Then they say make clear that their concerns about pitching prospects developing arm problems before ever reaching the majors (and in the process becoming far less effective) is great enough that they will have to be blown away by a pitching prospect before taking one ahead of a close to comparably ranked position prospect with a high first round draft pick... and they actually take a  position player.

Then they say their draft picks will generally be the best player available instead of drafting to meet current roster needs or even future roster needs... and they seem to do that with the 3rd pick.

And now the idiots have said they will largely after the first pick focus on power arms for most of the rest of the first ten rounds of the draft... and who in the world would have expected them to actually do as they have said?

What kind of craziness is that?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 08:48:32 am
Is Hannemann signable?

P2 from a Salt Lake City newspaper before the draft:

 (Hannemann's) been showing off his skills for the last week, his family paying out of pocket (in accordance with NCAA guidelines) for workouts with the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics and L.A. Dodgers.

Sure would seem to be.  Hard to imagine the Theocracy would burn a high pick on him if he were not.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 09:01:17 am
http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-hannemann-likely-to-get-drafted-high-in-baseball/article_50ac6e36-ceb5-11e2-95ee-001a4bcf887a.html

(Hanneman) was actually drafted right after he graduated from Lone Peak by the Kansas City Royals, who offered about $125,000 plus money for future college courses (another $125,000; a fairly standard procedure these days) if he would bypass his two-year LDS mission.

The Royals even thought of having Hannemann — who was bound for Arkansas — being allowed to do his church service in the day and playing ball at night for a minor-league outfit that just happened to be in the area.

"We had to explain that missions didn't quite work like that," Howard Hannemann said, laughing....

The only hiccup was a late-season ejection that actually came at the night's end, for arguing with an umpire after BYU had been defeated at Miller Field. It also cost him two games.

"But that actually raised his stock," Howard said. "Maybe BYU players, or returned missionaries, were thought of as docile. People liked his competitiveness."


I'm betting he signs very quickly and wouldn't be surprised if he is in Kane County before the end of the month, possibly with Almora moving up to Daytona.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 08, 2013, 09:10:55 am
I love how all these mid round picks are "touch 94", "top out at 96" in the scouting blurbs.  Mysteriously a lot of them are going to be throwing 88-90 once they sign.  Same thing every year....

Heh, totally true.  Everybody can throw 95, and that will probably remain true well into today's picks.  Probably is really true.  Anybody who is really working at 88-90 has probably hit 95 once.  But it does make everybody look deceptively promising, and provides no discrimination.  I don't imagine that all 7 pitchers taken all have equal fastballs, but you don't get any discrimination from the 95+/-1 velocities. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 09:26:02 am
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway)?

Or the Theocracy scouting evaluations did not match the BA evaluations.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 08, 2013, 10:42:30 am
It's a little early to assume that the Cubs didn't take the best player available in the early rounds.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 10:56:38 am
It's a little early to assume that the Cubs didn't take the best player available in the early rounds.

Never too early for some folks to assume such things.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 08, 2013, 11:03:08 am
Jes, I agree with your take on the Cubs draft.  I would add that I believe that the Cubs would have taken Appel if he had been available, and with Appel off the board might have taken Gray if it weren't for the Adderall issue.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 11:07:04 am
Of course any GM should do the class thing and not raise the Adderall issue, and no reason to think Theo and Jed would be any different.  But you can bet your ass it was a factor.  There's just no upside for either side in admitting it.

Or you can BE an ass and bet that it was a factor when you know there is no way anyone can conclusively prove your claim is wrong.

There would have been no downside to saying it was a factor.

There would actually have been upside for the Theocracy to say Adderall had been a factor.... IF it had been a factor.

If it had been a factor, that presumably would have been because the Theocracy is strongly opposed to drug use in violation of the league rules, or in use of PED's, or by the poor judgment either might illustrate.  And to emphasize that to everyone in the organization, they could have made a clear and strong statement to that effect by saying they had been sold on Gray, and would definitely have picked him.... except for the Adderall use.  Instead they said it did not matter, leading an reasonable person to conclude that.... it did not matter.

The only apparent reason at this point to refuse to accept Hoyer's comments at face value is a refusal to acknowledge being wrong.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 08, 2013, 11:08:57 am
I believe that the Cubs would have taken Appel if he had been available, and with Appel off the board might have taken Gray if it weren't for the Adderall issue.

Possibly.  They have essentially suggested as much, and so far they have been refreshingly direct and honest with their public comments.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 08, 2013, 12:08:42 pm
Draft is off.  I'd wondered whether we'd have some significant money left, and grab a superslot right away after lots of phoning and checking last night and this morning. 

Not so.  College infielder converting to catcher. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 12:12:11 pm
He has a 2:1 BB/K ratio and slugged over .500.  He might be kinda  interesting.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 08, 2013, 12:23:09 pm
Our 12th round pick might be a guy we use some of our extra bonus pool money on.

Quote
148    Trevor Clifton [-]    RHP    HS    Heritage HS, Maryville, Tenn.    Tenn.

Many crosscheckers compare Clifton with Georgia prep Robert Tyler, as both are tall righthanders with big velocity and raw deliveries. Some scouts call Clifton's "ugly velocity" because of his mechanics, though it is consistent velocity. The thin 6-foot-4, 185-pounder has touched 97 mph and sits 92-93. Not everyone agrees about how much projection Clifton has, as some scouts say his frame is too thin to add much weight. He does show athleticism, which should help him make adjustments to his delivery with pro coaching, and hand speed, which portends more velocity and the ability to spin a breaking ball. He throws both a curveball and slider, with the curveball showing flashes of plus power at 80 mph. He has shown more confidence in his changeup, which has its moments. A veteran of USA Baseball's 16-and-under club that won gold in 2011, Clifton may be a tough sign. He is committed to Kentucky, which has a solid track record of developing pitchers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 08, 2013, 12:26:16 pm
The Cubs also drafted Austin Peay 2B Jordan Hankins in Round 11 and apparently announced him as a catcher.

He hit .352 with 11 homers this year and was BA's #27 prospect in Tennessee.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 12:27:56 pm
Hankins also hits left-handed. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 08, 2013, 12:29:16 pm
Maybe some Steve Clevenger potential with him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 12:45:46 pm
Cubs Den just tweeted that Daniel Ponce De Leon has a projectable arm.  Me, I just like the last name.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 12:55:44 pm
Cubs just took Michael Wagner out of San Diego.  Was #192 on BA list.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 03:43:03 pm
Sounds like the Cubs signed Clifton for 3rd round money.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 08, 2013, 03:56:07 pm
Is there any reason why that snot-nosed brat isn't posting scouting reports on the Cubs draftees, as he did in previous years?  It is really the only reason why he is tolerated on this board.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 08, 2013, 06:02:42 pm
Sounds like the Cubs signed Clifton for 3rd round money.

Here's an article about the apparent Clifton signing.

Also, in one of the very late rounds, Cubs drafted  HS catcher Jeremy Martinez---who was highly touted before the season and then had a disappointing performance and dropped like a rock.  Guessing Martinez probably won't sign and will play college ball.

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2013/jun/08/heritages-trevor-clifton-selected-in-12th-round/?partner=yahoo_feeds

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 08, 2013, 07:54:27 pm
You never know what you're getting with these young men after the 1st couple rounds.

I really like the Bryant pick and Im glad we got UTs Friday night starter Zach Godley though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 08, 2013, 08:16:16 pm
Clifton was obviously the overslot guy this year.  That's a nice signing, since he probably is a legit third-round talent.  So skinny he has to run around in the shower to get wet, but he has time to add a little muscle to his frame.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 08, 2013, 10:57:01 pm
Is there anyplace where we can get a complete list of Cubs draft choices.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Robert L on June 08, 2013, 11:03:27 pm
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?sportId=10
has the complete draft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 08, 2013, 11:08:41 pm
Or this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/drafttracker.jsp#ft=team&fv=chn
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 08, 2013, 11:20:09 pm
Thanks, guys.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 08, 2013, 11:38:29 pm
Seems like Clifton wasn't the only over-slot.

https://twitter.com/TylerAlamo_
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 09, 2013, 12:02:02 am
Seems like Clifton wasn't the only over-slot.

https://twitter.com/TylerAlamo_

Same HS as Josh Vitters.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: jacey1 on June 09, 2013, 01:18:37 am
Clifton is great selection
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 09, 2013, 10:28:56 am
Same HS as Josh Vitters.

And if you look at the Tyler Alamo twitter feed CUBlueJjys posted here, it would appear from his interaction with his peers that Tyler may be even less mature, and less likely to be focused than we have seen with Vitters.  https://twitter.com/TylerAlamo_  If the kid has any real talent, it might make sense for the Theocracy to assign him minder.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 09, 2013, 02:56:29 pm
Quote
“The Blue Jays let me know they wanted to take me with 47th pick on Thursday night (when the draft was) around the 25th pick,” lefty Rob Zastryzny said on Saturday from Corpus Christi, Tex.


So obviously the Cubs couldn't have gotten him a round later, and he's not a flagrant overdraft.  Interesting, actually, that Toronto would have been calling him that far ahead.  It's one thing to be the top guy on your board at 47 (or 41); it's another to already be knowing that when the draft is only at 25.  They must have had him pretty high on their board. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 09, 2013, 03:57:31 pm

So obviously the Cubs couldn't have gotten him a round later, and he's not a flagrant overdraft.  Interesting, actually, that Toronto would have been calling him that far ahead.  It's one thing to be the top guy on your board at 47 (or 41); it's another to already be knowing that when the draft is only at 25.  They must have had him pretty high on their board. 

BA had him at #76---which is top of 3rd round.

13 guys rated lower than #76 by BA were also taken in thw 2nd round
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 09, 2013, 04:25:23 pm
Is #77 higher or lower than 76?  I just want to understand your post.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 09, 2013, 04:33:26 pm
I think this reflects how fluid scouting evaluations can be, especially for pitchers.  For NFL or NBA drafts, the drafts are 3-6 months after guys have last played in regular games.  But in baseball, guys are playing right up until the draft, and pitchers can improve their velocity/slider/delivery late in the year, sometimes significantly so.  It's probably not rare for a pitcher to be throwing a bunch of 95's in May when they may have been maxing at 92 in early April.  Or to have a good-looking slider in late May when they were throwing a crummy slurve in April. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 09, 2013, 04:36:26 pm
McCleod was on WGN radio today.

Quote
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen 4h

McLeod says Mark Appel and Kris Bryant were neck and neck for them and were going to be happy either way.


Quote
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen 4h

McLeod believes Bryant can play 3B in the majors. Tall for position but very athletic, good hands. If does have to move will be good OF'er.

Quote
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen 4h

Cubs like Zastryzny, bulldog mentality, athletic, will pitch 90-93, solid change, two breaking pitches.

Quote
John Arguello ‏@CubsDen 4h

McLeod says Cubs focused on college pitchers with good stuff whom they think will have an accelerated development.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 09, 2013, 10:50:27 pm
Is #77 higher or lower than 76?  I just want to understand your post.

Sorry--my post was confusing.  He had a better rating than 13 guys drafted in 2nd round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2013, 12:51:22 am
Poncedeleon (14) and Hermans (30) have signed.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 10, 2013, 08:36:49 am
From Cubs.com email:

The Chicago Cubs completed the 2013 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft. The club made 40 selections during the three-day event.

 In the 15th round, the Cubs selected right-handed pitcher Michael Wagner out of the University of San Diego. A teammate of Cubs first-round pick Kris Bryant, Wagner struck out 84 batters in 89.0 innings, good for an average of 8.5 strikeouts per 9.0 innings, while walking 32.

The Cubs 25th round selection, outfielder Marcus Doi from Mid-Pacific Institute in Honolulu, Hawaii, is the first player from Hawaii selected by the Cubs in the First-Year Player Draft since shortstop Jan Thornton-Murray, taken in the 14th round of the 1999 draft.

Overall, the Cubs selected 19 pitchers (16 righthanders and three lefthanders), seven infielders, eight outfielders and six catchers. Additionally, the Cubs selected 22 college players, seven junior college players and 11 high school players.

Cubs 2013 Draft Picks
(by Pick Number)
(2) Kris Bryant
(41) Rob Zastryzny
(75) Jacob Hannemann
(108) Tyler Skulina
(138) Trey Masek
(168) Scott Frazier
(198) David Garner
(228) Sam Wilson
(258) Charcer Burks
(288) Zachary Godley
(318) Jordan Hankins
(348) Trevor Clifton
(378) Trevor Graham
(408) Daniel Poncedeleon 
(438) Michael Wagner
(468) Cael Brockmeyer
(498) Kelvin Freeman
(528) Giuseppe Papaccio
(558) Will Remillard
(588) Zak Blair
(618) Joshua McCauley
(648) Kevin Brown
(678) Tyler Ihrig
(708) Tyler Alamo
(738) Marcus Doi
(768) Carlos Pena
(798) Tyler Sciacca
(828) Brad Renner
(858) John Garcia
(888) Zak Hermans
(918) Sean Johnson
(948) Keaton Leach
(978) Chris Madera
(1008) Jake Thompson
(1038) Ramsey Romano
(1068) Derek Campbell
(1098) Jeremy Martinez
(1128) Zack Brown
(1158) Josh Greene
(1188) Patrick Riley


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 10, 2013, 10:48:07 am
Keith Law:

Quote from: Day 2 Review
The Chicago Cubs' draft is a good reminder that one reach does not necessarily equal a bad class. Chicago did take BYU center fielder Jacob Hannemann a few rounds earlier than his talent probably warranted (third round), but the rest of their picks were all solid in terms of value. Texas Tech's Trey Masek was a guy who I thought would go in the first three rounds with four average to above-average pitches, and he was nice value in the fifth round. Pepperdine's Scott Frazier had top-50 talk earlier in the year with a 96 mph fastball, so he could be seen as a steal in the sixth round. Keep an eye on fourth-round pick Tyler Skulina (Kent State), a guy who had decidedly mixed results but could be a solid mid-rotation starter with some coaching up.

Quote from: Draft Overview
The Cubs' first pick, Kris Bryant (2), was a first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego and just ended up leading Division 1 in homers this year with 31. His kind of right-handed power is hard to come by, and even if he ends up in right field down the road he'll be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience. Rob Zastryzny (41) is a four-pitch starter without an out pitch, showing good command and control but lacking life on the fastball. Jacob Hannemann (75) is a 22-year-old freshman from BYU who spent two years serving on a religious mission, with good tools including the speed to possibly stay in center, but he's already at an age when he should be in Double-A.

The Cubs took five hard throwers who probably profile in relief in the long run in Tyler Skulina (108), Trey Masek (138), Scott Frazier (168), David Garner (198), and Sam Wilson (228); Skulina and Frazier are the most intriguing because they at least have a chance to remain starters due to their size and potential for above-average breaking balls. Their one wild card pick is Trevor Clifton (348), a prep righty from Tennessee who reaches 97 mph regularly with a very violent delivery and a strong commitment to Kentucky.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 10, 2013, 10:55:09 am
Baseball America's scouting report on Kris Bryant in 2010 after his senior year in high school:

Quote
Bryant entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he's on, he's a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he's struggling. He's athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn't be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love Bryant's power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him--especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 10, 2013, 11:18:49 am
http://blountpressrow.com/2013/06/three-days-in-june/

http://blountpressrow.com/2013/06/moneyball/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 10, 2013, 02:52:30 pm
Dave, thanks for those fascinating articles.  I'd known BA had him 148 overall, which seems like late 4th-early 5th but hadn't realized they'd been projecting him to actually go in the 2nd round.  The bit about listing $800K as price, but then having teams thinking it was actually $1M seemed curious.  Actual miscommunication error when Cliftons never indicated any such thing?  Or the agent really having communicated that? 

The article says that after Cliftons cleared up the "discrepancy" before Saturday, that at least two other teams put forth offers, and the Cubs offered to use their first pick on Saturday. But, of course, they didn't actually; every other teams had a chance to draft him in the 11th round before the Cubs selected him in the 12th.  The article has a bunch of factually questionable stuff in it, so I wonder how much is actually true.  versus an agent or a father telling a story, perhaps not quite correctly, or a local reporter who doesn't really know the process getting some details messed up.  (Local readers certainly don't care...) 

It's odd that the Cubs didn't select him right away.  If there were other teams interested, and why wouldn't there be, why did the Cubs risk letting somebody else take him?  I'd think it was now obvious that he wanted to sign.  So if the Cubs were offering $650K, and somebody else was talking $530, if the $530K team had picked him would the Cliftons have really walked away and gone to school, over $120K, or whatever?  Yet the Cubs risked letting some other team select him instead. 

Maybe Cliftons and agent were pretty decisive, and gave no encouragement to other teams.  Maybe agent called Houston and got no offer, then Cubs, and got a good offer, and then nobody else could get close so he encouraged the others not at all, who knows.  But the Cubs might have been taking a little bit of a risk.  Perhaps that suggests they had some other guy(s) lined up, who they'd have been just about as happy to grab.  If Clifton got picked by somebody else who thought he'd sign for a little less, the Cubs could just get Eicholz or who knows whomever else. 

But I wonder if deferring on Clifton till round 12 might not also indicate the Cubs really didn't want to let Hankins get away either.   After passing catchers through Friday, perhaps Hankins seemed like the best bet and they didn't really want to miss on him, too.  So maybe it reflects well on their level of interest in his possibilities?  Enough to risk Clifton and settling for a second-best superslot? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 10, 2013, 03:07:54 pm
craig - Be carefull or you will make yourself crazy trying to figure something like that out. There is no way of either identifying all of the possible scenarios, much less making an educated guess which one might be accurate, much less actually confirming the real explanation.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 10, 2013, 03:12:43 pm
Clifton’s arm was virtually spring-training ready on a recently concluded, month-long tryout tour for pro teams. It was no accident.

“If he threw a lot of pitches in one game, we would give him seven to 10 days rest,” Mountaineer coach Robbie Bennett said. “A lot of scouts said he’s got a fresh arm right now.”

Bennett never once yielded to the temptation to pitch Clifton on short rest, weighing always both the talented right-hander’s future and what his success, in the long run, could mean for the school.

“You get a kid like that, you don’t want to overthrow him,” Bennett said. “I think we as a staff did a good job of protecting him and looking out for his interests. Our kids are proud of him. It’s a big day for him and his family, and it’s a big day for this school.”

http://blountpressrow.com/2013/06/moneyball/

Jeez, a coach who is actually taking the long view and protecting a young player's arm.  Nice to see.  I wonder how rare this is - Kerry Wood's high school coach certainly did not share this approach, and I suspect not all that many do.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 10, 2013, 05:35:08 pm
An early look at some of next year's top draft prospects:

http://m.si.com/3038187/01e4b6cd/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 10, 2013, 06:38:11 pm
Truly, it's awesome to see that kind of commitment to a kid's welfare from a HS coach.  A rare thing indeed. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on June 10, 2013, 11:38:10 pm
Our 5th rounder, Trey Masuk (RHP Texas Tech), looks interesting...wiry athletic, nice FB (low 90s to 95), developing secondary pitches...hasn't given up a single HR in the last two years in college (well over 100 innings).

He was highly regarded after a great performance in the Cape Cod summer league, but had an arm-injury setback in the spring...otherwise, he'd probably have been gone well before we nabbed him.  Hope we can sign him, develop him (with Johnson's help) and that he stays healthy.  If so, he might be a keeper.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 11, 2013, 12:47:02 pm
4    108    73    Tyler Skulina      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Kent State    Ohio       
Ranked #73 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Skulina had aspirations of going in the first five rounds as an Ohio high schooler in 2010, but a back injury and his Virginia commitment dropped him to the Athletics in the 46th round. He spend just one semester with the Cavaliers before transferring to Kent State, helping the Golden Flashesmake their first-ever College World Series appearance last June. He has been inconsistent this spring, allowing 11 earned runs in two innings against Louisville, yet carrying a 95 mph fastball and a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Miami (Ohio). Skulina shows first-round stuff when he's at his best. The 6-foot-6, 225-pounder holds the velocity on a 91-96 mph fastball with tailing action, and he misses more bats with a tight 80-84 mph slider. He also uses a curveball to give hitters a different look and is working on a changeup. His up-and-down season is the product of inconsistent control and command, which likely will make him available in the third round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 11, 2013, 12:47:53 pm
5    138    49    Trey Masek      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Texas Tech    Texas       
Ranked #49 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Primarily a reliever as a sophomore, Masek emerged as one of the best righthanded starting pitching prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer. He carried that momentum over to the start of this season, when he allowed just one earned run and 21 hits in his first 40 innings. He hasn't been as sharp since a bout with rotator-cuff tendinitis sidelined him for a month. Masek throws strikes with four offerings, working primarily off an 89-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 and a curveball with some sharpness to it. He also has a short cutter/slider and a changeup. New Texas Tech pitching coach Ray Hayward, the 10th overall pick in 1983 and a former big leaguer, has done a nice job of helping him smooth out his delivery, which in turn has improved his command. Masek's relatively small stature (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) and monthlong layoff do lead to some concerns about his durability, though he still figures to go in the second round.

6    168    160    Scott Frazier      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Pepperdine    Calif.       
Ranked #160 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Frazier's physical, projectable frame and big arm strength in high school prompted some scouts to predict he could become a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick after three years at Pepperdine if he smoothed out his delivery and refined his command. That has not happened. After an injury-marred freshman year, Frazier went 7-5, 3.39 as a sophomore and was 4-5, 4.35 this spring. He shows premium velocity, touching 94-96 mph early in games and settling in at 91-93 with late life, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and lacks command. Frazier struggles to sync up his 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame, collapsing on the front side and pitching uphill. His arm action is funky and violent, leading to long-term concerns about his durability. His curveball flashes plus, but he has difficulty throwing it for a strike, and hitters are often able to pick it up early and lay off the pitch in the dirt. He mixes in a solid changeup now and then, but he relies on his fastball and curve. Most scouts think he'll wind up in the bullpen, where his aggressiveness will be an asset, and he can be effectively wild in short stints.

7    198    248    David Garner      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Michigan State    Mich.       
Ranked #248 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Garner has one of the stronger arms in the Big 10 Conference, reaching 94 mph with his fastball and flashing a plus slider. He sits in the low 90s with his heater, though it's not overpowering because it lacks life and his long arm action allows hitters to see it well coming out of his hand. He also tends to drift offline from the plate, which costs him command and leads to inconsistent results. His best outing of the season came when he allowed one run in 8 1/3 innings against a strong Kentucky lineup on March 9, but Garner also failed to win any of his first six starts in conference play. He has made improvements to his changeup, though he projects as a reliever because he's 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds. His stuff should play up and could become more reliable in shorter stints. A 33rd-round choice by the Reds from a Michigan high school in 2010, Garner could become Michigan State's highest draft pick since the Mets took Bobby Malek in the fourth round in 2002.

8    228    358    Sam Wilson      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    LHP    Lamar (Colo.) CC    Colo.       
Ranked #358 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Wilson got scouts' attention by touching 94 mph in workouts last fall. While he hasn't been quite that good this spring, he still showed an average fastball, sitting in the 88-91 mph range and topping out at 93. He is also an outfielder (though strictly a pitcher for pro ball), so scouts think he could add a couple of ticks when he focuses on pitching full-time. He mixes in a slider that could be an average pitch and an occasional curveball, but he will need to learn a changeup. Wilson has a strong frame at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, with an athletic delivery and a short, compact arm action, though he does have a little bit of a wrist wrap. With his athleticism, he will get every opportunity to start in pro ball and work on his secondary stuff.

9    258       Charcer Burks      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    OF    Travis HS, Richmond, Texas    Texas       
Not in Baseball America's Top 500. Ranked 80 in Texas
Burks pushed himself into the top 10 rounds with a terrific workout the week before the draft. He ran a 6.5-second 60-yard dash and held his own with a wood bat against quality fastballs from Trey Masek (Texas Tech) and David Gates (Howard, Texas, JC). A 5-foot-11, 180-pound righthanded hitter, Burks has some strength in his hands and barrels the ball, though he lacks bat speed and power. His below-average arm will necessitate a move from shortstop to center field in pro ball. He has committed to McLennan (Texas) CC.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 11, 2013, 12:49:28 pm
10    288    487    Zack Godley      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Tennessee    Tenn.       
Ranked #487 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Godley has been an important part of head coach Dave Serrano's reconstruction project at Tennessee. He transferred in after his freshman season at Spartanburg (S.C.) Methodist JC and served as a middle reliever for a year before becoming the team's No. 1 starter under Serrano in 2012. He was a workhorse as a senior, going 5-7, 3.49 with 108 innings and six complete games. Godley throws strikes with his fastball and has proved durable at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds. His fastball sits 88-90 mph and he fills up the bottom half of the strike zone. His curveball is fringe-average and flashes better. His changeup was a solid-average to plus pitch in 2012 but backed up in 2013 as his curve improved. Godley hit 95 mph as a reliever and probably fits better in that role as a pro.

14    408    322    Daniel Poncedeleon      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    Houston    Texas       
Ranked #322 in Baseball America's Top 500.
A 24th-round pick by the Rays in 2010 out of a California high school, Poncedeleon began his college career at Arizona. After pitching just three innings as a freshman, he transferred to Cypress (Calif.) JC and went in the 38th round to the Reds last June. He turned down the pros again to attend Houston, where he has shown solid stuff. The 6-foot-4, 195-pounder owns an 88-91 mph fastball that peaks at 94 and can flash sliders with tight, late break. He has aptitude for throwing a changeup as well. Poncedeleon three-pitch mix isn't as effective as it should be because his control and command are suspect. Scouts also question his competitiveness and toughness.

15    438    192    Michael Wagner      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    RHP    San Diego    Calif.       
Ranked #192 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Wagner spent most of his first two seasons in a relief role, ranking second in Division I with 19 saves as a sophomore before moving into the rotation at season's end. He opened this season as USD's Friday starter but moved back to the bullpen after 11 starts, and scouts think he's better suited to relieve despite his three-pitch repertoire. As a starter, he works in the 88-91 mph range with plus life on his sinker, but his stuff is crisper in shorter stints. He commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, pitches to contact and gets plenty of groundball outs. His solid-average slider can be a swing-and-miss pitch, and he is comfortable throwing his average changeup to righties as well as lefties. He has a durable 6-foot-4, 185-pound build and a sound delivery. Wagner's stuff isn't overpowering, but he has good feel for pitching and poise in tight spots, making him a good fit in relief. Some scouts like Wagner as high as the second round, but the consensus places him closer to the fifth to seventh round.

16    468    393    Cael Brockmeyer      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    C    Cal State Bakersfield    Calif.       
Ranked #393 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Brockmeyer was the centerpiece of Bakersfield's lineup as a junior this spring, hitting .333/.419/.484 with four homers and 51 RBIs. At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, he has plenty of strength and leverage in his swing, giving him average raw power. Despite the length in his swing and a high leg kick that leads to timing issues, he has a feel for the barrel and a decent approach, giving him a chance to be a fringe-average hitter. He's an adequate receiver but lacks mobility behind the plate. He has a loose arm but his arm stroke is not compact. Whoever drafts him will give him a shot behind the plate, but he'll probably wind up at first base.

24    708    348    Tyler Alamo      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    C    Cypress (Calif.) HS    Calif.       
Ranked #348 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Alamo's durable 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame has plenty of strength, but scouts use words like "rigid" and "stiff" to describe him behind the plate and in the batter's box. His receiving skills have a long way to go to become passable. He has slightly above-average arm strength, but his footwork affects his accuracy, and he takes too long to unload the ball. He is an upright hitter whose grooved swing features an arm bar. He swings and misses too often, and scouts consider him a guess hitter. He does flash promising raw power. A team could take him around the back of the top 10 rounds and try to sign him away from Cal State Fullerton.

25    738    388    Marcus Doi      [View Scouting Report]      [View Limit Calculations]    OF    Mid-Pacific Institute, Honolulu    Hawaii       
Ranked #388 in Baseball America's Top 500.
Doi broke out at last summer's Area Code Games, ripping hard line drives all over Long Beach State's Blair Field. He has lost a little steam this spring, as scouts are starting to question his overall profile. He has a tightly wound build at 6 feet and 180 pounds and bats and throws righthanded. He's just a fringe-average runner and he'll have to play left field because of his below-average arm strength. So he's really going to have to mash, and he profiles more as a fringy hitter with average power. Scouts now expect Doi to honor his commitment to Hawaii.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 11, 2013, 02:17:41 pm
Quote from: Jim Callis
Despite the Cubs’ pitching needs, the organization started the draft with Kris Bryant, the most exciting bat in the class, at No. 2 overall. Chicago then loaded up on arms,  taking seven in the first 10 rounds. Lefty Rob Zastryzny (second round) has feel for his fastball, while college righties Tyler Skulina (fourth), Trey Masek (fifth) and Scott Frazier (sixth) all have power stuff. Frazier, who was a sixth-rounder out of high school, has the most upside but the furthest to go to realize his potential. The Cubs have more intriguing late picks than most led by BA 500 members Trevor Clifton (No. 148), Daniel Poncedeleon (322) and Michael Wagner (192), all righthanders.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 12, 2013, 08:53:56 pm
About $20,000 over slot for 9th round pick.

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/344946837704294400
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 12, 2013, 09:27:25 pm
it may be helpful to have this handy-dandy list of slot values for each team's picks, per round

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/assigned-pick-values-bonus-pools-for-each-team/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: jacey1 on June 13, 2013, 01:45:04 pm
About $20,000 over slot for 9th round pick.

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/344946837704294400
That is surprising-the kid might be worth keeping a close eye on
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: AndyMacFAIL on June 13, 2013, 02:10:07 pm

This is a big surprise:

The Colorado Rockies sign Jonathan Gray.  He accepts over $825K BELOW his slot value.  I guess that's what happens when you have BBI Sports Group as your agent instead of Scott Boras.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1671366-no-3-overall-pick-jonathan-gray-gets-48-million-rockies-signing-bonus (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1671366-no-3-overall-pick-jonathan-gray-gets-48-million-rockies-signing-bonus)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 13, 2013, 02:24:14 pm
Makes it even worse.

Let's really hope Bryant can hit.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 14, 2013, 07:56:22 am
Let's really hope Bryant can hit.

It is hard not to feel good about the Bryant pick after reading the Baseball America piece on him.  For those who didn't read it when someone else posted the link earlier -- http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-player-of-the-year-kris-bryant/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 14, 2013, 09:54:54 pm
Appel close to signing according to numerous sources.

Getting pretty ironic at this point.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 14, 2013, 09:55:58 pm
Meh.  Bryant will sign before too long.  Not a big deal.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 14, 2013, 10:43:14 pm
Cub signings seem to be going super fast. 

I'll be curious to see how they handle all these college pitchers.  Do they let them pitch two months?  Or are the innings caps mostly exhausted with their college work? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on June 15, 2013, 12:19:14 am
Jes, thanks for the link to the Bryant article...very fun read for Cub fans.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 15, 2013, 12:39:12 am
Went to a Cape Cod League game tonight and saw Cubs 19th round pick Will Remillard who plays for Cotuit. Pulled up a lawn chair and watched him from right behind the screen. he played 5 innings. MLB draft site lists him as a Junior but he's actually a draft eligible redshirt Sophomore.

Very good arm and quick release--lot's of SB attempts in this league but Remillard threw out a guy by at least 5 feet, which is unusual.  Hard to project any power for this guy. Not much weight transfer or strength in his stroke. Interesting that he's playing in a summer league. Didn't get a chance to talk to him but guessing that Cubs want to see how he hits in next few weeks before offering him more than nominal bonus.Probably just a catch and throw guy--tipped a batter's bat tonight and got called for catcher interference. Not much size--listed at 6'1 in the handout but I don't know about that. Contact type hitter. From same school as Josh Conway---last year's 4th rounder who's now hurt.

Remillard looks like a guy who could benefit by another season in college. I'll be curious to see if he signs. Lots of scouts with radar guns here. Cotuit also has Hunter Cole, an OF from U of Georgia---a guy who might be a 1st round pick in 2014. Dynamite bat speed. Walked and stole a base both times he batted.  Looked like best player on the field. Game was at Chatham, where Kris Bryant played two summers ago.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 15, 2013, 04:56:36 am
Meh.  Bryant will sign before too long.  Not a big deal.

Boras tends to take them up right until the last hour, even when there's no reason to.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if that doesn't happen here.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 07:41:39 am
Cub signings seem to be going super fast. 

I'll be curious to see how they handle all these college pitchers.  Do they let them pitch two months?  Or are the innings caps mostly exhausted with their college work?

Other than those I keep pushing, I haven't seen any numbers for innings caps for young pitchers.  Does the Theocracy have any?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 15, 2013, 07:59:52 am
Guy on other site says that Bryant is close. 

I wonder how it goes.  I think most or all of the guys who are going to sign have already agreed, even if they haven't passed physicals and made it official yet.  So their cut of the cap is mostly already committed, and Bryant's cut is left. 

I imagine several options:
1.  Bryant wants to wait, until they've signed everybody else; then he just gets whatever is left.  They may want to reserve a couple hundred thousand just in case some HS overslot candidate who's said he's going college changes his mind and decides to accept.  Or in case some guy like Remillard suddenly looked good enough to command some overslot.  So maybe they'd only be willing to give him $5.8 today, but once the college commits stay true to college plans, they'll be able to give him $6.3 without costing them any prospect. 

2.  Conversely, maybe they've reserved a $6.3 slot for Bryant, and have already signed as many overslots as they can afford given that.  But if Bryant signs for $5.8, perhaps that will free up an additional $500K to up offers to guys like Garcia or Leach or Pena. 

I think about 24 picks have already agreed.  All but two of the other college junior types have already agreed, other than 28th and 36th rounders, and maybe they have too. 

They've already done several of the overslot/superslot teenagers (Clifton, Alamo, Burks), and perhaps more (Pena?  Garcia?) 

I'm sure that Clifton/Alamo have more than exhausted the overslot money.   Not sure whether Z or Hannemann may be variably underslot, but I'm guessing that Masek and/or Frasier might be variably overslot, and perhaps Garner too.  So my guess is that for rounds 2-10, we're spending overslot, not under, and Clifton/Amaro way more.  So I'd be pretty surprised if there's enough left to pay Bryant slot even if they wanted to.  But how far under, who knows. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 15, 2013, 08:17:54 am
Other than those I keep pushing, I haven't seen any numbers for innings caps for young pitchers.  Does the Theocracy have any?

Not sure on rigid innings caps.  But they certainly have ideas about limiting wear on young arms.  So I'm really curious what those might be and how they might apply to guys drafted.  The regular college starters pitched around 78-95 innings.  Not sure if that includes conference tournament play.  So if you've already pitched 90 innings, I wonder how much more serious work they'll be willing to allow them, at age 21?  I doubt they're going to be allowed to be 6 innings every 5th night during July and August and early September, that could be another 60 innings.  I'll be surprised if any is allowed more than 40 more innings.  But, obviously I'm just guessing.  So I'm pretty curious to see how they do it. 

I think a bunch of these guys are already in Mesa, and more will pass physicals and show up next week.  I'd guess a couple weeks of "spring training", then some 30-30-45-45-45-60-60-60 pitch buildups.  Perhaps somebody like Masek, who supposedly had some shoulder issue, maybe he'll be different. 

Johnson was really the only fast-sign college guy last year.  And obviously they took him REALLY slow and despite signing in mid-June, he didn't pitch in box-score games for two months and ended up with only 12 innings.  Maybe that will be standard use for college arms, but he'd had the arm problems so I think his handling may have been pretty non-representative. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 15, 2013, 08:48:07 am
Quote from: Gordon Wittenmyer
Bryant is expected to be the final pick the Cubs sign, likely at the July 12 signing deadline.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 15, 2013, 09:01:57 am
The way they piggyback their staffs in the lower levels, I don't think pitch counts are ever a factor.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 15, 2013, 09:27:36 am
Boras tends to take them up right until the last hour, even when there's no reason to.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if that doesn't happen here.

Yeah but he only has a month to play with.  Even if they take it up to the deadline, big deal.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 15, 2013, 09:29:16 am
Cub signings seem to be going super fast. 

Quote
I think most or all of the guys who are going to sign have already agreed . . .

craig, where are you hearing about all of these draft signings?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 15, 2013, 10:29:26 am
JR there is a guy on that PSD site who obsessively finds and stalks the twitter accounts of guys drafted and/or their hometown newspapers. And the kids who are drafted are all tweeting stuff about how happy they are to be Cubs and how they are heading to Arizona etc etc.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 15, 2013, 10:34:07 am
Here is the thread from prosports daily

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?822175-2013-Chicago-Cubs-Draft-Class-amp-Signings
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 10:50:17 am
I'm sure that Clifton/Alamo have more than exhausted the overslot money.   Not sure whether Z or Hannemann may be variably underslot, but I'm guessing that Masek and/or Frasier might be variably overslot, and perhaps Garner too.  So my guess is that for rounds 2-10, we're spending overslot, not under, and Clifton/Amaro way more.  So I'd be pretty surprised if there's enough left to pay Bryant slot even if they wanted to.  But how far under, who knows. 

As a true free market supporter, I hate the slotting system... but I have to admit that it can result in some very interesting games between teams and the drafted prospects.  I am not saying that it is happening with the Cubs, or with anyone, but a team in the position of the Cubs could be very direct with a top prospect, telling him immediately that they are offering him the full recommended slot amount (or the full amount plus some percentage) if he signs immediately, but that they are going to be aggressively pursuing some of the lower round high school picks which they will have to seriously overslot, and that as they do so, they will keep him fully and promptly informed of those signings so he can keep track of what remains in the team's overall pool of funds, and that if those other picks sign, then the pool of funds available for him will shrink, and will end up leaving the team with less available to sign him than the team is initially offering.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 15, 2013, 11:35:13 am
jes, my guess is that it's working exactly the opposite.  Steve, we love your guy, we wish we could pay him more, but we want to sign a bunch of other guys too.  So the CBA just doesn't allow us to pay you more and still get the other guys signed.  But, if you want to wait, and if some of those targets won't take the offers, then we'll have some extra and we'll give it to your guy.  We know he deserves it. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 12:19:09 pm
craig, that is the exact same thing, only worded differently.  I didn't offer how it would be worded when speaking to the prospect or his agent, but only what would be happening.  How it would "work" as you word it is exactly how I explained it.  Either way you have the top pick looking at a shrinking pool of available funds and wondering whether he should accept a current offer while the money is still there, or hold out for more, with the chance that not only will the "more" no longer be available later, but that the available pool of funds may shrink to the point that the team is no longer able to honor the original offer.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 15, 2013, 01:33:34 pm
As a true free market supporter, I hate the slotting system... but I have to admit that it can result in some very interesting games between teams and the drafted prospects.  I am not saying that it is happening with the Cubs, or with anyone, but a team in the position of the Cubs could be very direct with a top prospect, telling him immediately that they are offering him the full recommended slot amount (or the full amount plus some percentage) if he signs immediately, but that they are going to be aggressively pursuing some of the lower round high school picks which they will have to seriously overslot, and that as they do so, they will keep him fully and promptly informed of those signings so he can keep track of what remains in the team's overall pool of funds, and that if those other picks sign, then the pool of funds available for him will shrink, and will end up leaving the team with less available to sign him than the team is initially offering.

I am sure that variations on that theme are going on with most, if not all teams.  But there are risks involved, especially with top draftees.

If the Cubs sign several lower draft choices overslot to the point that there is not enough money to offer slot, the draftee might just decide, as Appel did last year, to refuse to sign, and go back into the next year's draft.  In that case, the team loses the entire slot money for that slot.  If they have already spend it on lower choices, that may well put them over their pool limit, and result in their losing a choice next year.

To use random numbers, if the Cubs pool is 11 million dollars, and 7 million is slotted for the first round pick, if they spend 5 million on their 2nd through 10th pick, and tell Bryant that there is only 6 million dollars left, if he refuses to sign, the Cubs pool now goes down to 4 million, and since they have gone 25% over their pool, they lose their next two year's first round draft choices.

You can game any system, but it often can get quite complicated.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 15, 2013, 01:45:27 pm
Astros expected to sign Appel for $6-6.5, so Bryant should be signing soon for a decent amount under slot.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 15, 2013, 02:13:03 pm
I'll actually be surprised if Boras, with the top two picks as clients, would let Appel sign under slot before Bryant was signed. That would put a ceiling on Bryant's bonus, rather than a floor on Appel's if Bryant signed first.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 15, 2013, 02:36:42 pm
I'd be kinda of shocked if it goes really long.  The Cubs/Astros are likely very close in dollars to what the Appel/Bryant want.  With the penalties as steep as they are for going over your pool you need to pretty much know what it is going to take to sign everybody, so there isn't a whole lot of room to haggle over.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 03:35:07 pm
I am sure that variations on that theme are going on with most, if not all teams.  But there are risks involved, especially with top draftees.

If the Cubs sign several lower draft choices overslot to the point that there is not enough money to offer slot, the draftee might just decide, as Appel did last year, to refuse to sign, and go back into the next year's draft.  In that case, the team loses the entire slot money for that slot.  If they have already spend it on lower choices, that may well put them over their pool limit, and result in their losing a choice next year.

To use random numbers, if the Cubs pool is 11 million dollars, and 7 million is slotted for the first round pick, if they spend 5 million on their 2nd through 10th pick, and tell Bryant that there is only 6 million dollars left, if he refuses to sign, the Cubs pool now goes down to 4 million, and since they have gone 25% over their pool, they lose their next two year's first round draft choices.

You can game any system, but it often can get quite complicated.

I wasn't suggesting that anyone should "game" the system (though unquestionably many involved, including some of the most successful teams, do exactly that).  I merely pointed out that the negotiation process is now a game, with very different parameters than before, and those changes make it more interesting to watch.... AS a game.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 15, 2013, 04:11:35 pm
As a former professional negotiator, I can assure you that all negotiations are games, and a good understanding of game theory is extremely useful.  And I did not mean to use "game the system" in a negative sense.  Any time you have rules or systems, any sensible person learns those rules and uses them to their own advantage whenever possible.  A person that uses IRS rules to ensure that he pays the least amount of tax legally is gaming the system, as he should.

And you are correct, the current negotiations are a game.  I merely pointed out that in this particular game, if you use the wrong strategy, the penalties for losing can be substantial.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 04:14:03 pm
in this particular game, if you use the wrong strategy, the penalties for losing can be substantial.

For both sides.

That is why it is interesting to watch.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 15, 2013, 05:14:02 pm
I think it will be very rare for high draft picks to go unsigned in the current system.  The cost to the team of going over the cap is prohibitive, I doubt that ever happens.  And no organization wants to not get their top pick.  For the players, no player wants to miss his payday, whether it's a junior who's have reduced leverage next year, or a HS player who'll need to wait years.  I think the pressures to come to terms are mutually reinforcing. 

The main action takes place, I think, before a draft pick is made.  The team knows what it can do, the player says what he'll need, and the team decides from there.  I think that's why all these deals, whether it's the 20+ guys the Cubs have already agreed with or the 1st-rounders like Bryant and Gray and Appel, can all go down without a lot of suspense.  You get the price in advance, and you don't buy what you aren't able/willing to pay. 

Appel had determined that he wouldn't sign for less then elite cash last year; none of the teams who had it considered him worth it, so they didn't pick him.  Pittsburgh made a surprising selection, presumably thinking that he'd cut his price, and they were mistaken.  I assume the only time things get messy is when a team like Pittsburgh doesn't take a prospect at his word and thinks it will be able to get him for a lot less.  Didn't work in that case, and I don't imagine that's a risk teams will often take. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 15, 2013, 06:05:01 pm
I saw you asked over on NSBB, both Jimenez and Torres are over 16.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 15, 2013, 07:20:24 pm
Thanks. 

Apparently Poncedeleon has unsigned.  He'd apparently tweeted that he was signing, and had seemed to be tweeting that he was flying down to Mesa, etc.  Apparently now that's off and he's going to Houston.  Failed physical, I wonder?  Weird. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 15, 2013, 08:42:43 pm
Has to be, he was in Mesa.  With Appel signing for $6.35 per Callis, Bryant has to be coming in below that.  I wonder if they could have the money to make a run at Martinez or some of the other high school pitchers.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 15, 2013, 09:12:08 pm
Thanks. 

Apparently Poncedeleon has unsigned.  He'd apparently tweeted that he was signing, and had seemed to be tweeting that he was flying down to Mesa, etc.  Apparently now that's off and he's going to Houston.  Failed physical, I wonder?  Weird. 

Could be a problem with the birth cerfticate.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 16, 2013, 08:58:53 am
True.  There is a lot of that going around. 

Paniagua

Obama

And my mother doesn't have one either.  How can I be sure that she is really almost 104?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 16, 2013, 08:57:16 pm
Skulina signes for $800,000.  $300,000 over slot.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 17, 2013, 06:39:19 am
True.  There is a lot of that going around. 

Paniagua

Obama

And my mother doesn't have one either.  How can I be sure that she is really almost 104?

You missed the pun.... Poncedeleon.... birth certificate....
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 17, 2013, 12:54:56 pm
Skulina signes for $800,000.  $300,000 over slot.

Thanks, Blue, fascinating.  Will be really interesting to see what the numbers are for Masek and Frazier.  I expect that all three of Skulina/Masek/Frazier are variably overslot, and I assume 20-year-old Garner as well. 

There is something of an assumption that college picks will take slot.  But I think there may be a lot of guys who figure they have the ability to move up a bunch in the draft with a good year.  Frazier could take slot in the $200's; but he might also figure that if he worked things out he might be a 2nd or even first rounder next year. 

MOney doesn't always reflect management scouting on a guy, but perhaps sometimes it does, too. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 17, 2013, 03:58:14 pm
But signing now is a bird in the hand, is cash they get even if they blow out an elbow this July, and if it results in reaching the majors a year earlier, the additional year of major league money will far outweigh what most players will get by improving their draft slot cash.... and if they are good enough to ultimately make it to be arbitration eligible or FA eligible, reaching that a year earlier, or having one more pro season at those salaries will even further dwarf the added draft slot cash most would get from remaining in college another year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 17, 2013, 05:33:08 pm
All that is true.  But these kids also know that the vast majority of those drafted never even sniff the majors, and their signing bonus is all they will ever get from baseball.  For the vast majority of high school signees, they would probably have been better off going through college if they think they have a good chance of increasing their signing bonus.

Unless they sign out of high school for life-changing money.  $100,000 isn't life changing money.  $1,000,000 probably is.  The point between probably moves depending upon the specific player.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 17, 2013, 05:42:34 pm
Chicago Cubs Sign Second Round Pick, Lefty Rob Zastryzny Out of Missouri

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/06/17/chicago-cubs-sign-second-round-pick-rob-zastryzny/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 17, 2013, 05:49:30 pm
My point is simply that just because you draft a college player, that doesn't mean he'll be cheap, or signable or slot-signable.  It depends on each player. 

I expect the Cubs knew that Skulina wasn't signable at 4th round slot, Masek wasn't signable at 5th round slot, Frazier wasn't signable at 6th round slot, and Garner wasn't signable at 7th round slot.  Even though those were 4 college pitchers who could get variable hundreds of thousands of dollars in slot money, and might get injured or have no leverage next year, I assume each of those kids had decided that they weren't going to decide for slot at those slots.  It's possible that several of those kids might have gotten drafted sooner is they'd been willing to take slot but I assume that wasn't true in many or any of those four cases. 

But the Cubs knew they had discretionary money, and liked those prospects enough at the prices they knew they would sign for, and selected them.   It will be fun to eventually read how much each of them got, and to see whether any of them justify the Cubs belief that they are worth the overslot money.  Will also be interesting to see whether the signing values will vary from the order that they were picked. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 17, 2013, 06:34:11 pm

 Rob Zastryzny ‏@RobZastryzny_8 1h
Officially part of the Chicago Cubs organization. Thanks for all the support and I can't wait to start the journey. #Cubs
 Retweeted by Paul Sullivan
Expand
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 17, 2013, 07:36:51 pm
All that is true.  But these kids also know that the vast majority of those drafted never even sniff the majors, and their signing bonus is all they will ever get from baseball.  For the vast majority of high school signees, they would probably have been better off going through college if they think they have a good chance of increasing their signing bonus.

Unless they sign out of high school for life-changing money.  $100,000 isn't life changing money.  $1,000,000 probably is.  The point between probably moves depending upon the specific player.

Except that virtually any prospect good enough to be considered for the top 5 rounds of the draft sincerely believes THEY have what it takes to make it, and for HS kids good enough to be considered in the top 15 rounds of the draft, they feel that way.

I am not arguing with your point, but for folks who are SURE they will make it, even though they are wrong, it seldom makes sense to delay going pro... and virtually all of these guys are sure they will make it, even though most are wildly wrong.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 17, 2013, 08:01:52 pm
jes, I think a lot figure a payoff one year from now is worth it, even if a payoff 6 years out isn't. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: droe411 on June 17, 2013, 11:14:00 pm
Rob Zastryzny ‏@RobZastryzny_8 1h
Officially part of the Chicago Cubs organization. Thanks for all the support and I can't wait to start the journey. #Cubs
 Retweeted by Paul Sullivan
Expand

1.1 Million, under slot which was 1.38 some odd Million
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 18, 2013, 02:06:22 pm
The Cubs officially confirm some draft signings.

Quote
CHICAGO - The Chicago Cubs have thus far signed eight players selected in the 2013 First-Year Player Draft, including left-handed pitcher Rob Zastryzny out of the University of Missouri, who was drafted with the 41st overall pick in the second round.

In addition, the list of Cubs signees includes right-handed pitcher Zachary Godley (10th round), catcher Cael Brockmeyer (16th round), shortstop Giuseppe Papaccio (18th round), second baseman Zak Blair (20th round), left fielder Kevin Brown (22nd round), left-handed pitcher Tyler Ihrig (23rd round) and right-handed pitcher Zak Hermans (30th round).

http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130618&content_id=50995176&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 18, 2013, 02:09:58 pm
The Cubs officially confirm some draft signings.

http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130618&content_id=50995176&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
A Zachary and two Zaks already signed must be a first.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 18, 2013, 02:16:15 pm
Zaks of shttt?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 18, 2013, 07:31:26 pm
A Zachary and two Zaks already signed must be a first.

Add Zastryzny and the Cubs have signed four Z's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 19, 2013, 02:35:00 pm
Appel signs as does 4th pick Kohl Stewart.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 19, 2013, 06:35:26 pm
Hannemann signs for $264,000 over slot. $1 even. Wow.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 06:38:01 pm
Why did we sign a guy we overdrafted by at least two rounds over slot?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 06:45:09 pm
Why did we sign a guy we overdrafted by at least two rounds over slot?

That is a good question.

Theo seems to love him, though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 19, 2013, 06:53:29 pm
The most obvious answer is that we didn't overdraft him by at least two rounds
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 06:57:04 pm
The most obvious if you're looking for answers that don't match the facts, perhaps.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2013, 07:16:59 pm
You have access to all 30 teams draft boards, and multiple scouting reports?  Without that I doubt anybody is dealing with facts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 19, 2013, 07:29:02 pm
What are the facts?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 19, 2013, 07:30:01 pm
Everybody should look at the BA site--starting with 2nd round--and compare where guys were "rated" compared to spot where actually drafted. Tons of guys drafted earlier in those high rounds than projected. Not just Cubs but a host of teams and picks. BA, Law, Mayo---they are not the Bible. Teams rate guys all over the place once you get past the very top-end guys. Kind of hard to have a strong opinion on who's an "overdraft" or even what that means after the 1st round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 07:36:02 pm
The only reason you pay a guy 25% over slot is if he was drafted well after the consensus of where he should have been.  Hanneman was drafted well before every major scouting service had him projected to go.  Sure, maybe there were GMs who felt he was worthy of going higher - but none of them drafted him, did they?  What leverage did he have in these negotiations to claim he should be paid more than slot money, never mind this much more?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 19, 2013, 07:43:59 pm
So you know that Hannemann would not have been drafted at some point in 3rd round had cubs passed on him?  Not sure how you know that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 07:52:15 pm
The only reason you pay a guy 25% over slot is if he was drafted well after the consensus of where he should have been.  Hanneman was drafted well before every major scouting service had him projected to go.  Sure, maybe there were GMs who felt he was worthy of going higher - but none of them drafted him, did they?  What leverage did he have in these negotiations to claim he should be paid more than slot money, never mind this much more?

What leverage did he have?

How about returning to school in the fall to play football and continue to pursue his degree, and then play baseball again next spring?

Sounds as if the Cubs simply asked what it would take to sign him, and he told them (and other teams), and that thei valued him highly enough to meet that demand, and more highly than the other picks available at the time.

Doesn't seem to be a puzzle here.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 07:53:59 pm
I think one thing is fair to say is Hannemann and his coach at BYU certainly didn't expect to him to be a 3rd round pick.  Usually players have a decent range of rounds where they expect to be drafted, and especially since the 3rd round led off the second day of the draft, if teams were knocking the door down to make him a 3rd round pick, he probably would have been well aware of it.

Quote
Littlewood said teams were generally more excited about Hannemann as a little bit later pick.

----------------------

"We're stoked," said Howard Hannemann, an Alpine resident and father of the 22-year-old Lone Peak graduate. "We never dreamed he would go this high."

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-baseball-s-jacob-hannemann-gets-drafted-by-the-cubs/article_7c12468c-cf95-11e2-aa7d-001a4bcf887a.html (http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-baseball-s-jacob-hannemann-gets-drafted-by-the-cubs/article_7c12468c-cf95-11e2-aa7d-001a4bcf887a.html)

Based on those quotes and that story, Hannemann certainly seems like a guy who would have or should have been more than happy with a standard 3rd round bonus.

That being said, if the Cubs thought he was the best player available, they can't be faulted too much for taking their best player available guy with their pick.  And since it looks like we're going to sign all of our targets anyway, it's not that huge of a deal if we decide to overpay him or not.  Probably regrettable that the Theocracy couldn't have thought of any better uses for their money than paying above slot for a guy who seemed pleasantly surprised to be taken as high as he was, but in the long run, it doesn't seem like it's that big of a deal either.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2013, 07:59:42 pm
The only reason you pay a guy 25% over slot is if he was drafted well after the consensus of where he should have been.  Hanneman was drafted well before every major publication that hasn't seen every player in person had him projected to go.  Sure, maybe there were GMs who had scouts and might have seen players in person was worthy of going higher - but none of them drafted him, did they?  What leverage did he have in these negotiations to claim he should be paid more than slot money, never mind this much more, other than being a freshman and football player?

Fixed it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 08:11:27 pm
When you can't refute an argument without actually going in and changing it to make it easier to refute, you know the counterpoint is weak.

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 08:15:55 pm
So you know that Hannemann would not have been drafted at some point in 3rd round had cubs passed on him?  Not sure how you know that.

Why does the possibility that some other GM might have drafted Hanneman in the 3d round if Theo hadn't justify paying him $265K over slot money?

JR, there's still the matter of Clifton, who may legitimately command overslot money.  Going this far over needlessly for Hanneman could cost us there.  Presumably this is a matter of Theo being infatuated with the guy and willing to get him at any cost.

The degree to which people are willing to bend over backwards to be apologists for the organization continues to surprise me, even after all these years.  It would almost be worth seeing Bryant come in way over slot money when Appel and Gray signed for less just to see the gymnastics posters would perform in defending it as brilliant negotiating.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 19, 2013, 08:16:54 pm
I'm surprised that Hannemann got overslot but as has been noted a bonus has a lot to do with leverage and the guy is a draft eligible Freshman who plays football.

The bonus is a different question than the "overdraft" issue. As I said before, often a wide disparity in how each team evaluates compared to the scouting media sources. For example, round 3 picks were picks # 74-105. Some guys drafted that round were ranked pre-draft by BA:  201, 176, 214, 246, 203, 154, 188, 152, 319, 210, 183, 242.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 08:25:16 pm
I think one thing is fair to say is Hannemann and his coach at BYU certainly didn't expect to him to be a 3rd round pick.  Usually players have a decent range of rounds where they expect to be drafted, and especially since the 3rd round led off the second day of the draft, if teams were knocking the door down to make him a 3rd round pick, he probably would have been well aware of it.

The fact that he did not expect to be taken until after the 3rd round does not mean he expected to sign with the team drafting him instead of returning to college.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 08:26:11 pm
Quote
JR, there's still the matter of Clifton, who may legitimately command overslot money.

It sounds like we have Clifton taken care of, though.  If Clifton isn't in the bag, then yeah that would certainly open the door for some criticism there. 

If Clifton and Alamo are taken care of like it seemed when we drafted them, then probably about the biggest "benefit" of going above slot for someone like Hanneman is to make sure we have all of our bonus money spent and not open the door for criticism that a rebuilding team left bonus pool money on the table. 

Aside from that, it doesn't seem like the overslot is going to affect much.  Hopefully it doesn't anyway.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 08:26:57 pm
When you can't refute an argument without actually going in and changing it to make it easier to refute, you know the counterpoint is weak.

He didn't change your argument.  He simply included the very relevant information you have pretended was not there.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on June 19, 2013, 08:31:27 pm
I think the leverage issue makes sense with Hanneman. He may have been happy to return to school and increase his stock for next year.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 08:34:18 pm
I think the leverage issue makes sense with Hanneman. He may have been happy to return to school and increase his stock for next year.

The thing with him, though, is his stock probably wasn't ever going to get much higher than a 3rd round pick.  You don't see too many 23 year old sophomores going in the first or second round.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2013, 09:16:26 pm
When you can't refute an argument without actually going in and changing it to make it easier to refute, you know the counterpoint is weak.

It was easier on my phone do to it that way.  Baseball America, Keith Law, BP aren't scouting services, and never will be.  They have 4-5 guys who go to showcases and see some of the major college teams on a regular basis.  Most of their information is going to come from scouts and coaches.  It is useful for fans, but they are going to have far less info than what a team with good scouting department has.  When the Jerry Jones took pictures in front of Cowboys draft board and a blog was able to rebuild it Callis was jealous that an MLB team hadn't done this.  So I'd much rather take Theo's judgment on player who has had multiple scouts/cross checkers/McLoud/himself see him than BA/Law/Joe Blow that may have seen him play 1-2 games.

I really doubt that Theo talked him into signing for $1 million, if he would have signed for less and it would cost them a shot at Clifton, etc...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 19, 2013, 09:18:17 pm
Theo was infatuated with him.  deeg's presumption that Theo is a dope may be true, at least in terms of scouting/evaluation.  He's an intelligent man; but whether he's good at scouting actual baseball players, I have no idea.  May be a totally dumb valuation, but I certainly do support the logic of going with somebody you think is a superior talent to the alternatives. 

You don't both "overdraft" and overpay Hanneman if you've got a plateau of five players who you like equally well.  Only if you see him as superior BPA.  If I had five equal plateau guys, I'd first off take one who'd sign for slot (or less).  Plus if I suspected there might not be widespread appreciation for Hanneman's ability, or widespread willingness to overpay at the price he'd cost, I might also figure I could get one of my other top plateau guys in round 3, and still perhaps get Hanneman in round 4, best of both worlds. 

That Theo didn't do that suggests that, idiotically or not, he'd evaluated Hanneman as a superior value to the other candidates.  He didn't want to risk losing him by either waiting another round, or by digging in and holding to slot.  Theo thought he was a distinct BA on his board at that point, even if Callis and deeg and others did not.  Theo may be a bad scout, but I can't fault him for going with his scouting convictions.  If those prove too frequently idiotic, he'll get fired soon enough. 

JR, I think the "surprise" may not necessarily have been on Friday.  My guess is they hadn't been thinking/hearing real high round, so they'd just figured give it another year.  Get married, go back to school, set a high price tag and see where you stand next year.  Maybe you'd get picked in 5th or 7th round, but don't sign for that.  So I'm guessing the expectation would be that he'd experience what most price tag guys do; they get drafted later, like Jeremy Martinez, with no expectation of signing.  But then he got called on Thursday with something that was worth maybe signing for.  Perhaps it was only Theo; but maybe Texas and Boston and the Giants were calling him too, we don't know.  Whether one team or four, it was probably surprising. 

Certainly Theo had plenty of time before it started on Friday to call and talk and see what it would take.  They had the price, but Theo stlll knew he was so infatuated that it was worth paying that much.  If he'd have been signable for $600K instead of $1M, I assume Theo would have paid the $600.  But if the family gives a pricetag, and Theo decided the merchandise was worth it, it seems logical to go grab it and pay what it takes. 

The real question is whether Theo's evaluation is any good or not. 

I used to argue this with ben.  He was always talking about Philosophy and stuff.  I think it comes down largely to case-by-case evaluations.  The Cubs liked Soler more than Puig.  Theo liked Hanneman more than a bunch of other guys.  Are there evaluations smarter than average, or not?  Beats me. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2013, 09:52:24 pm
Red Sox's 10+ War Players Drafted under Theo- 5
First Draft that hasn't produced a 10 WAR player- 2006 (Justin Masterson is 9.3, Josh Reddick 7.3)

Cubs 10+ War Players- 1 (Sean Marshall 10.2)
Next highest are Darwin 6.6, Shark 4.4.

I think it's fair to say they have a history of being decent at this draft thing.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 10:01:10 pm
Jesus, Craig - who the hell said Theo was a dope?  I said he was infatuated with Hanneman, which is the Occam's Razor explanation for both drafting him where he did and overpaying for him (and supported by press reports to that effect).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 10:10:02 pm
Theo was infatuated with him.  deeg's presumption that Theo is a dope may be true, at least in terms of scouting/evaluation.  He's an intelligent man; but whether he's good at scouting actual baseball players, I have no idea.  May be a totally dumb valuation, but I certainly do support the logic of going with somebody you think is a superior talent to the alternatives.

I don't know... hard to argue the idea of rigidly following the rankings of BA and simply picking the highest name available on the list.

Besides simply being a brilliant approach, think of all of the money a team could save on scouting.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 10:13:24 pm
Jesus, Craig - who the hell said Theo was a dope?  I said he was infatuated with Hanneman, which is the Occam's Razor explanation for both drafting him where he did and overpaying for him (and supported by press reports to that effect).

No.

The Occam's Razor explanation would be that the Cubs did not "overpay" for him at all, and that you are wrong.  THAT is the simplest explanation here.  Several of us have pointed out the fact that the kid had leverage, and you blindly ignore it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 19, 2013, 10:26:11 pm
Jesus, Craig - who the hell said Theo was a dope?  I said he was infatuated with Hanneman, which is the Occam's Razor explanation for both drafting him where he did and overpaying for him (and supported by press reports to that effect).

Heh, heh.  I thought when you used the pejorative "infatuated", and said or implied that he both overdrafted and overpaid, those suggested dopey. 

Agree that the Occam's Razor is that he thought very highly of the prospect.   Rightly or wrongly, I have no idea. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 10:33:11 pm
One thing I'll have to say about Hannemann, it's pretty impressive to have the freshman season he had after not playing baseball at all for over two years. 

I can kind of see in that sense why Theo would be infatuated.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 10:33:57 pm
Sometimes smart guys do dopey things.  That doesn't make them dopes.

It remains to be seen whether Theo was dopey for reaching for Hanneman based on a personal infatuation - he may turn out to be a great player.  But he certainly overpaid for him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 10:36:56 pm
Theo on Hannemann:

Quote
“It’s an interesting story,” team president Theo Epstein said last week. “He’s kind of a rare combination for a college player – tools, athleticism, speed and then also pretty polished hand-eye coordination and the ability to make contact.”

“He’s a really good kid, outstanding athlete and baseball’s coming back to him really quickly,” Epstein said. “That was enough for us to look past the age. He’s a little bit older than we expect for a player with only one season of college experience.”

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/hannemann-cubs-see-draft-class-coming-focus (http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/hannemann-cubs-see-draft-class-coming-focus)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 19, 2013, 10:39:00 pm
If Theo is wrong about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly overdrafted and overpaid him.

If Theo is right about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly did not overdraft or overpay him.

Are you usining Hammeman's long professional record to determine that Theo was wrong, or is it your own extensive baseball experience?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 19, 2013, 10:41:33 pm
JR, I think the "surprise" may not necessarily have been on Friday.  My guess is they hadn't been thinking/hearing real high round, so they'd just figured give it another year.  Get married, go back to school, set a high price tag and see where you stand next year.  Maybe you'd get picked in 5th or 7th round, but don't sign for that.  So I'm guessing the expectation would be that he'd experience what most price tag guys do; they get drafted later, like Jeremy Martinez, with no expectation of signing.  But then he got called on Thursday with something that was worth maybe signing for.  Perhaps it was only Theo; but maybe Texas and Boston and the Giants were calling him too, we don't know.  Whether one team or four, it was probably surprising. 

craig, you might have a point after all.  I just noticed this digging through some articles on him.

Quote
Hannemann is expected to be taken on the second day (Friday) not long after the third round starts. Though there is some mystery in a process that doesn't get analyzed by outsiders (pundits) as thoroughly as the pro football and basketball drafts.

Howard Hannemann said there's a "number" in mind of what it will take his 22-year-old son to leave Provo. It's in the neighborhood of being selected in the second or third round, which can approach a half-million dollars just to sign on the dotted line.

So they were demanding a second or third round bonus it appears, and obviously the Cubs thought it was worth it.

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-hannemann-likely-to-get-drafted-high-in-baseball/article_50ac6e36-ceb5-11e2-95ee-001a4bcf887a.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 10:42:19 pm


If Theo is wrong about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly overdrafted and overpaid him.


If Theo is right about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly did not overdraft or overpay him.


Are you usining Hammeman's long professional record to determine that Theo was wrong, or is it your own extensive baseball experience?

Overpaying for a prospect drafted well higher than projected is overpaying, and 20-20 hindsight doesn't alter the fact.  In the days before draft spending caps it didn't matter so much - now it does.

You may want to put in some practice on posting without coming off as a complete sarcastic dickhead.  But that's your call.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 19, 2013, 10:46:16 pm
Keith Law suggests/speculates on Twitter that the Cubs had to take a couple underslot guys in the second and third rounds to save money to sign Bryant

If Keith Law was one of the sources used, it doesn't look like he is to reliable a source.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 19, 2013, 10:47:34 pm

It's in the neighborhood of being selected in the second or third round, which can approach a half-million dollars just to sign on the dotted line.



And the Cubs paid him a full million, which is roundabout what he should have gotten at the start of the second round after the compensation picks and competitive balance picks.  It's still way too much.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 19, 2013, 10:49:50 pm
Overpaying for a prospect drafted well higher than projected is overpaying, and 20-20 hindsight doesn't alter the fact.  In the days before draft spending caps it didn't matter so much - now it does.

Baseball America/Keith Law/PG/BP don't set when some one is projected to go.  The Cubs 5th round pick, projected as a top 50 pick by most of those guys signed for slot value. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 19, 2013, 10:53:19 pm
You may want to put in some practice on posting without coming off as a complete sarcastic dickhead.  But that's your call.

Sometimes when a poster insists on taking a position which is extremely simple-minded, and refuses to even acknowledge obvious and important points illustrating just how simple-minded his position is, it is just damn hard NOT to be sarcastic.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 19, 2013, 11:22:33 pm
craig, you might have a point after all.  I just noticed this digging through some articles on him.

So they were demanding a second or third round bonus it appears, and obviously the Cubs thought it was worth it.

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-hannemann-likely-to-get-drafted-high-in-baseball/article_50ac6e36-ceb5-11e2-95ee-001a4bcf887a.html

I suspect the Provo author was suggesting the "approaching half million", and hanneman didn't exactly spell it out for him.  Z's 2nd round slot was $1.36, for example, teams have 5% overage, and players with more than senior eligibility left routinely get overslot.  I assume it didn't get to $1M until they called, asked if he'd sign for slot, and they said no. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 19, 2013, 11:36:17 pm
I think Hannemann is going to be well worth the money and that he's going to move quickly thru the system.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 19, 2013, 11:46:05 pm
Masek right on slot.  BA had him at #49, ahead of Z, Skulina, and Hanneman. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 20, 2013, 01:15:44 am
Bryant will end up signing somewhere under slot, right?

Boras advises both Appel and Bryant...and Appel signed for $6.350--which is even under slot for the #2 pick.  So, presumably Boras does want to explain to Appel why the guy drafted after him got $6.7 #2 slot money.

Gray signed for $4.8 at #3.

So, guessing that Bryant probably signs for somewhere between $5.8 and $6.3.

According to BA, Cubs are currently $241, 700 over budget--not counting Bryant (of course), picks 6, 7, 8 (not yet officially announced), and Clifton at #12 (not yet announced).  Clifton's family says he has agreed to 3rd round money, which would be about $600,000 near the top third of that round.  That would be about $500,000 overslot for him.

Of course, Cubs can also go a bit over $500,000 overage for their entire draft pool if they so choose.

Don't see any problems if Bryant signs for 400,000 below the $6.7 slot....at $6.3. 

That would leave about $900,000 to cover Clifton, plus the current $241,700 over budget amount, and another 150,000 to cover any over slot money for picks 6,7,8, if any. 

I'm guessing that Theo and his guys have worked the numbers.  :o
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 20, 2013, 01:27:26 am
Betwen Zastryzny and Hanneman, the Cubs went a whopping $1,900 over slot value. They either know within a narrow range what Bryant will cost or they're complete idiots for signing others overslot and perhaps losing a 2014 draft pick. I don't think they're complete idiots. They obviously felt that Hanneman was worth their third-round pick, or they wouldn't have drafted him. They also obviously felt he was worth a $1M signing bonus, or they wouldn't have signed him when they could save his overslot money AND receive a compensation pick between rounds 3 and 4 in the 2014 draft.

They also knew (or at least should have known) that he would be an overslot candidate, since he still has three years of college eligibility remaining in both baseball and football.

Like every other third-round pick, Hanneman is still more likely to be a bust than an everyday MLB player. But they clearly thought he was the Best Player Available.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 20, 2013, 07:21:09 am
Cubsin, I agree with everything, except the numbers.  Between Z and Hanneman, I think they are like $3 K over, between them. 

Hann is $264K over.
Z is $261K under. 

Skulina is another $323 over
Godley is $104 under. 

Totally agree, though, that they surely have a very tight, or completed, budget line for Bryant.  I suspect he's done but hasn't done his physicals yet.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 20, 2013, 08:22:34 am
I suspect the Provo author was suggesting the "approaching half million", and hanneman didn't exactly spell it out for him.  Z's 2nd round slot was $1.36, for example, teams have 5% overage, and players with more than senior eligibility left routinely get overslot.  I assume it didn't get to $1M until they called, asked if he'd sign for slot, and they said no. 

I think you're right.  From reading a couple of articles, I don't think the Provo writer knew what 2nd to 3rd round money actually was.  $500,000 is definitely not 2nd to 3rd round money anymore.  That's more along the lines of back of the third round money.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 20, 2013, 12:37:04 pm
Keith Law doing a chat today and says that Bryant will get a larger bonus than Appel---and that Cubs knew that before draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 20, 2013, 02:24:45 pm
Keith Law doing a chat today and says that Bryant will get a larger bonus than Appel---and that Cubs knew that before draft.

Im sure Boras and Epstein are in constant contact with Law as they negotiate Bryant's contract.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 20, 2013, 07:12:37 pm
The gymnastics team is warming up.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JeffH on June 20, 2013, 07:24:38 pm
Keith Law doing a chat today and says that Bryant will get a larger bonus than Appel---and that Cubs knew that before draft.

Why is this a surprise?  Senior vs. Junior.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 20, 2013, 09:55:10 pm
The Rockies have assigned Jonathan Gray to their rookie-league team in Grand Junction. I wonder if it's just a marketing thing to have him get his start in the state of Colorado (their low-A team is in Ashville, NC). Otherwise, that seems 2 levels too low for him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 20, 2013, 10:05:56 pm
I don't think so. Most teams will start their picks in short season just to get their feet wet. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 20, 2013, 10:44:18 pm
Did Prior not even pitch his first year after being drafted? Maybe I was thinking of his assignment and that he started maybe even in High A.
I do see where the Cubs have assigned Hahnemann (sp?) to Boise, not Arizona.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 20, 2013, 10:45:01 pm
Prior did not pitch his draft year. Started at AA in '02.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on June 20, 2013, 11:11:43 pm
Thanks Chris. Checked baseballreference, and saw what Prior did in 2002 in his 50 innings between AA and AAA and got a little weepy.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on June 20, 2013, 11:51:00 pm
Was at his first start in West TN...electric...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 21, 2013, 07:34:10 am
Was at his first start in West TN...electric...

I think it was his 2nd or 3rd AA start I saw in Chattanooga.  He was as good in that start as I had seen Jenkins and Gibson in their primes when I caught them at games at Wrigley in the late 60's and early 70's.

He cruised at 93-94, had excellent movement, and in the entire 7 innings the catcher had to move his glove from the target position more than two inches only 4-5 times.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 21, 2013, 08:09:11 am
Mark Prior was awesome. Literally.  Probably the best pitcher I've ever seen live.  The injuries were a shame. Even more of a shame was the crap he took from some fans who claimed he was too soft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 21, 2013, 08:29:25 am
I was at the spring training game in 2002 when Prior allowed just one hit (a solid single up the middle) against the White Sox in three innings.  I think he had five Ks.  As each Sox hitter was retired, the on deck guy would ask for advice.  It was not your usual spring training game.  They were being embarrassed and didn't like it.  And it was their starters, not a bunch of minor leaguers.  A Sox fan behind me said "I'm sure glad that guy is in the other league".

A week or so later, the Cubs were back in town and I was seated near Jim Hendry.  When he wasn't on the phone, I asked him where Mark Prior would start the year.  He said the decision had already been made - AA.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 21, 2013, 11:19:39 am
Cactus, I think that game was on TV, I remember that.  People were just going nuts, he looked so great. 

I think it was the following spring, I believe also against the Sox and also in one of the few TV games that got a lot of the serious fans watching, that Angel Guzman also had a dazzling outing.  Man the future looked good, pitching-wise, in those days. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 21, 2013, 09:36:19 pm
Cactus, I think that game was on TV, I remember that.  People were just going nuts, he looked so great. 

I think it was the following spring, I believe also against the Sox and also in one of the few TV games that got a lot of the serious fans watching, that Angel Guzman also had a dazzling outing.  Man the future looked good, pitching-wise, in those days. 

Heady days.... Corey Patterson, Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill were also going to help the team score plenty of runs for the next decade.... oh, well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 21, 2013, 10:07:12 pm
I still think Mark Prior was a **** and was too soft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 21, 2013, 11:05:25 pm
Prior is still milking those injuries to this very day.

Such a wuss.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 22, 2013, 01:29:45 am
Manaea signs with the Royals for $3.55M, a supplemental record.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 24, 2013, 03:07:27 pm
Quote
Patrick Mooney ‏@CSNMooney 4m

Cubs signings: P S. Wilson (8th round/Lamar); C J. Hankins (11th/Austin Peay); P T. Graham (13th/Franklin Pierce); P M. Wagner (15th/USD).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2013, 03:36:37 pm
BA says 6th round pick Frazier bonus is exactly at slot: $267,600.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 24, 2013, 04:23:26 pm
I read somewhere that Frazier turned down $800 out of HS. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2013, 05:08:05 pm
Callis says 8th rounder Wilson signs for $130,000. Slot is 159,400.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 24, 2013, 08:17:57 pm
It'd be nice to go ahead and get Clifton officially signed sooner or later.  Hopefully he hasn't changed his mind since draft day.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 24, 2013, 09:09:28 pm
Wonder if Clifton will have to wait for Bryant. 5% budget overage basically pays for Clifton's overslot but looks like Bryant will have to sign a bit underslot to work in Clifton. Maybe a god idea to get Bryant in fold before Clifton is official.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 24, 2013, 09:21:50 pm
I can't believe that the Cubs would risk going over the limit and losing next year's draft choice.  I doubt that they will sign Clifton unless they are ABSOLUTELY certain that they can sign Bryant with what is left over.  If they fail to sign him, they lose the first round slot money, and the 5 % overage that would go along with it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 24, 2013, 09:30:31 pm
You've got to really trust Boras if you're going into penalty on the assumption that Bryant will sign subslot later and get you out of penalty.  If skulina is actually official and BA's numbers are correct, then the Cubs are in penalty right now by about $50K.  They need Garner and/or Bryant to get them out of penalty, using BA's numbers. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 25, 2013, 11:13:16 am
You've got to really trust Boras if you're going into penalty on the assumption that Bryant will sign subslot later and get you out of penalty.  If skulina is actually official and BA's numbers are correct, then the Cubs are in penalty right now by about $50K.  They need Garner and/or Bryant to get them out of penalty, using BA's numbers. 

Basically to afford Clifton's $800,000 bonus demand, Kris Bryant will have to come in at $6,323,925 or around $384K below slot.

$527,825 (5% Overage)

(212,300) (Amount we're currently over budget)

100,000 (The $100,000 base we're allowed without penalty)

384,475  (Hopeful savings from Bryant)

Total - $800,000
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 25, 2013, 11:16:04 am
PSP still has 24th rounder Tyler Alamo as likely to sign.  I don't know if I can see it at this point, unless he just really really wants to play pro ball. 

There almost certainly won't be any bonus pool money left over for him if he wants to go pro.  He'll have to just accept the standard $100K penalty free bonus.  It seems like he wouldn't really want to do that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 25, 2013, 12:20:27 pm
Or we could wind up with Bryant and Alamo, but without Clifton.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on June 25, 2013, 02:51:11 pm
7th rounder David Garner bonus is $175,000---about 25,000 under slot. BA now has Cubs $186,900 over budget with only Bryant remaining of the top 10 rounds.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 25, 2013, 03:09:51 pm
Using BA's numbers, that cuts enough so that they are no longer under penalty. 

Even if Bryant was to NOT sign, they'd no longer go into penalty and lose their top pick next year, so long as they don't overslot Clifton or other 11-40 guys without signing Bryant first. 

I'm sure Boras is very professional.  But giving him leverage where he could say "You're in penalty if Bryant doesn't sign, so you better meet my terms" might not have been wise.  Or to give him leverage that "You're in penalty if Bryant doesn't sign, so paying him $8 while getting him will leave you no worse penalty-wise than if you don't sign him and have to pay penalty anyway." 

So I'm glad they're out from under the penalty. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 25, 2013, 03:15:23 pm
There almost certainly won't be any bonus pool money left over for him if he wants to go pro.  He'll have to just accept the standard $100K penalty free bonus.  It seems like he wouldn't really want to do that.

I don't agree, JR.  But that's because I expect Bryant to sign for well under slot.  Whether that's $5.6, or 5.8/6.0/6.2 I don't know, but I'll be surprised if he's 6.3 or higher. 

Bryant will sign.  That will open his 5% (over $300K) plus whatever amount under slot.  If he signs for $5.6, that will free up over $1,300K.  If he signs for $6.0, they'd still have over $1,000K. 

I assume Clifton will absorb at most $700K of discretionary (+$100 base = $800).  It could be a couple hundred K less, perhaps more like $500.  I seem to have "3rd round money" in my head, and $600K would be middle of round 3.  If so, that would absorb only $500K discretionary. 

Whether Clifton is $500 or $700, either way I expect that Bryant will come in enough under slot so that there will $100K or more left for Alamo.  I'll be surprised if Bryant gets over $6. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 25, 2013, 03:27:05 pm
Quote
I'll be surprised if Bryant gets over $6. 

I hope you're right.  Keith Law said he'd get more than the $6.35M Appel got, and that ABTY character had Bryant at $6.25.

Then again, going back through some of our draft postings, neither one of those guys seemed to get a whole lot right when it came to our draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 25, 2013, 04:04:22 pm
I hope you're right.  Keith Law said he'd get more than the $6.35M Appel got, and that ABTY character had Bryant at $6.25.

Then again, going back through some of our draft postings, neither one of those guys seemed to get a whole lot right when it came to our draft.

Yes, we'll see.  $6.25 for Bryant would give about $800K to spend.  If Clifton was full $700K, that would leave only $100K extra for somebody like Alamo. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 01:07:27 pm
Uh-oh . . .

Quote
Kris Bryant - 3B - Cubs

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs and first-round pick third baseman Kris Bryant are "nowhere close to a deal."

Bryant, a strong right-handed hitter out of the University of San Diego, was selected No. 2 overall in this month's First-Year Player Draft. The 22-year-old is said to be looking for something above the $6.7 million slot recommendation while the Cubs would prefer for a deal in the $6 million range. Represented by Scott Boras, there's a chance Bryant could go back to school for his senior season. The Cubs have until July 15 to reach an agreement and it sounds like negotiations could go down to the wire.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 01:08:08 pm
Cubs and slugger Bryant -- the No. 2 overall pick -- are at odds in talks

Slugging third baseman Kris Bryant, the No. 2 pick overall by the Cubs, is one of only a handful of first-rounders still unsigned. And judging by the negotiations so far, he's going to remain that way for a while -- probably right up until the July 15 deadline.

The Cubs and Bryant -- the University of San Diego slugger who hit a whopping 31 home runs, nearly 50 percent more than the second-place homer hitter in the NCAA, who had 21 -- are nowhere close to a deal, according to people familiar with the talks.

Word is, Bryant is looking for something above the $6.7 million slot allotted for the No. 2 pick, while it's believed the Cubs are thinking about something closer to the $6 million range.

Mark Appel, the No. 1 overall pick, signed with the Astros for $6.35 million, so the Cubs apparently are hoping to fall in just below that. But Bryant, who's being advised by Scott Boras, who also is Appel's adviser, seeks the top bonus this year.

The vast majority of first-rounders sign every year, and this year the signings generally have gone as swiftly and smoothly as ever before, with 26 of 33 already in their team's fold. The only first-rounder not to sign last year was the right-handed pitcher Appel, who was picked No. 8 by the Pirates but turned down a $3.3 million offer (and a possibility to get $3.8 million) to return for his senior season at Stanford.

Appel made close to $3 million more for his call to finish his Stanford career, but word is he signed below slot (the slot for the No. 1 overall pick was about $7.7 million) because the Houston native was thrilled to be picked No. 1 by his hometown team, and also because there's a value and cachet to being the No. 1 pick and a significant savings to be made from the lack of state tax in Texas.

Bryant could chose to return for his senior season at baseball power USD, delay his pro career and hope for a higher deal next year. The Miami Marlins, who are perhaps working their way into position for the No. 1 overall pick, are known to like Bryant, though North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon, a Miami native, is seen as a monster prospect, as well.

The Cubs can sell Bryant on the allure of becoming a Cub and playing in a great city. They can point to not only Appel, but Jonathan Gray, the No. 3 overall pick who signed for $4.8 million with the Rockies.

But Bryant, with rare power (he hit more home runs than a vast majority of NCAA teams), apparently sees his value as quite a bit higher than $6 million. It is believed the Cubs still have at least $7 million to spend, as a team can go 5 percent over their allotment without surrendering a 2014 draft choice, and the Cubs' allotment is $10.56 million.

If Bryant chooses not to sign, the high-revenue Cubs can not spend the money elsewhere; they'd only receive a 2014 replacement pick. The new Cubs regime of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer has done a very nice job gathering future assets, and the team is becoming well-stocked in the minors, with the last two draft choices in particular, slugging shortstop Javier Baez and multi-talented center fielder Albert Almora, looking like absolute studs in the minors.

The Cubs don't have a big-time third baseman at any level, though Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom have provided average production for the Cubs from that spot this year, to the surprise of most.

Epstein and Jed Hoyer have a long and interesting history with Boras going back to the pair's championship days in Boston, when they had as many as seven Boras client on their Red Sox roster, and have done some notable deals together, including those for Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew and Almora last year.

They appear to have a real difference of opinion here, though, so no deal currently is in sight. This one looks like it'll go right down to the wire, assuming it happens at all.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22534204/cubs-and-slugger-bryant-the-no-2-overall-pick-are-at-odds-in-talks
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 01:12:52 pm
Quote
Word is, Bryant is looking for something above the $6.7 million slot allotted for the No. 2 pick, while it's believed the Cubs are thinking about something closer to the $6 million range.

Well who knows if Heyman's sources are any better than Keith Law's or that ABTY dude's.

But still, it's looking more and more like we can forget about Clifton or any other above slot guys the rest of the draft. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 26, 2013, 01:19:17 pm
A take on this from Bleacher Nation:

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/06/26/report-chicago-cubs-and-kris-bryant-far-apart-in-signing-talks/
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 01:24:05 pm
Well this is pretty simple math.  The most the Cubs can offer Bryant is $7,049,325. 

I'm sure Scott Boras sees his mission as getting every dime of that $7,049,325 he possibly can.  The Cubs need to get to at least $700,000 below that amount to get Clifton signed.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 01:29:15 pm
I guess there's always the chance that Bryant already understands that the max he'll get from the Cubs is $6.3 million, and the Cubs are trying to save some more money so they can get someone like Tyler Alamo signed.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 26, 2013, 02:16:39 pm
Well this is pretty simple math.  The most the Cubs can offer Bryant is $7,049,325. 

I'm sure Scott Boras sees his mission as getting every dime of that $7,049,325 he possibly can.  The Cubs need to get to at least $700,000 below that amount to get Clifton signed.

So, if Bryant were to return to school, what is the most he could reasonably expect IF he moves up to the #1 draft position next year (which assumes he doesn't get injured in the meantime), given the slotting structure?  And, given that he will have lost the leverage of returning to college at that point?  Seems like a lot of risk to take for whatever the difference is between what he can get from the Cubs this year.  I will be astonished if he doesn't sign with the Cubs, and for a reasonable amount.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on June 26, 2013, 02:46:17 pm
So, if they p!ss this away, will the kowtowing end?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 26, 2013, 03:33:24 pm
What kowtowing is that?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 03:35:15 pm
I doubt they're going to p iss this away.  This is just Boras being Boras.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 26, 2013, 05:06:31 pm
So, if Bryant were to return to school, what is the most he could reasonably expect IF he moves up to the #1 draft position next year (which assumes he doesn't get injured in the meantime), given the slotting structure?  And, given that he will have lost the leverage of returning to college at that point?  Seems like a lot of risk to take for whatever the difference is between what he can get from the Cubs this year.  I will be astonished if he doesn't sign with the Cubs, and for a reasonable amount.

The most he could reasonably expect after another outstanding year as a senior would be about what Appel got ($6.35M), adjusted for the average increase in MLB salaries, so call it $6.8M. That's if Miami doesn't prefer Rodon. If Bryant doesn't go #1, he could slide several more picks and wind up with $4M or less.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 26, 2013, 05:45:05 pm
The most he could reasonably expect after another outstanding year as a senior would be about what Appel got ($6.35M), adjusted for the average increase in MLB salaries, so call it $6.8M. That's if Miami doesn't prefer Rodon. If Bryant doesn't go #1, he could slide several more picks and wind up with $4M or less.

So what possible justification would there be for Bryant not to sign with the  Cubs for something around $6M?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 26, 2013, 06:28:10 pm
Stubbornness.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 26, 2013, 06:34:21 pm
Quote
So what possible justification would there be for Bryant not to sign with the  Cubs for something around $6M?

Too bad Scott Boras isn't here to answer that.  I'm sure he'd have some lovely answers for that question. :)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 26, 2013, 07:26:46 pm
So what possible justification would there be for Bryant not to sign with the  Cubs for something around $6M?

Well, signing with the Cubs would mean he would be signing with the Cubs.

Not unreasonable to think some prospects might not be enamored with that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on June 26, 2013, 09:20:43 pm
Leave it to our Cubbies to screw it up.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 26, 2013, 10:23:01 pm
If he doesn't sign, the screw up would be on the part of Bryant, not on the Cubs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ben on June 26, 2013, 10:35:38 pm
Not surprising re  Bryant...very likely he will sign...but not without frustrating good Cub fans everywhere.

It's tough dealing with Boras clients, but if Bryant turns out to be a special talent, the wait (and $$$) will be easily forgotten...at least until he reaches FA.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 26, 2013, 10:42:50 pm
If he doesn't sign, the screw up would be on the part of Bryant, not on the Cubs.

Sorry, davep, but if the Cubs end up without signing the 2nd player taken in the draft, and end up as a result signing no one from the first round, the Theocracy has also seriously screwed up.

That screw up might not be in the negotiation process or in their budgeting of the pool of funds they were alloted in the draft, but instead in their evaluation of Bryant BEFORE the draft and coming to some idea of what would be required to sign him, but if they do not sign him, they will have screwed up.

Bryant may also have screwed up, but saying he and Boras were idiots does not lessen the mistake which would be involved on the Theocracy's part.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 27, 2013, 12:01:29 am
What's at "stake" is whether or not the Cubs can sign anybody else.  Clifton, Alamo, perhaps others. 
The Cubs have already spent 105% of the non-Bryant slot.  Boras wants Bryant to receive 105% of his slot.  The Cubs would like to spend less on Bryant and use some for Clifton etc. 


Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 27, 2013, 12:12:15 am
Bryant isn't exactly endearing himself to Cubs' fans, and it would get worse if we actually lost Clifton, Alamo and perhaps others because he waited too long to sign his contract. Clifton, Alamo, et al wouldn't like it, either. If he isn't signed by July 1, I'd offer him $6 million and tell Bryant and Boras that the offer goes down by $100,000 every 24 hours until he signs or the deadline passes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2013, 02:01:36 am
Not so hard to see the downside of the Hanneman number now.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 27, 2013, 03:32:07 am
Quote
Privately, team officials expected Bryant’s advisor, Scott Boras, to push these negotiations right up to the July 12 signing deadline. Bryant even used the Boras playbook on that teleconference three weeks ago, talking about “if we figure out a deal here” and “if we can make this deal happen.”

So Wednesday’s CBSSports.com report saying the two sides are “nowhere close to a deal” shouldn’t have been alarming. There’s still plenty of time to find common ground between Theo Epstein’s front office, the game’s most powerful agent and a potential star attraction at Wrigley Field.


http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs-talk/cubs-looking-kris-bryant-deadline-deal
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 27, 2013, 08:01:23 am
Sorry, Jes, but we do not have enough information to say that if Bryant fails to sign, that means the Cubs front office screwed up.  Although it is possible for both sides to screw up in an negotiation, it is also possible for only one side to screw up.

Presumably, the Cubs feel that they are better off with the players they get this year plus the extra pick they get next year than they would be by overpaying Bryant.  It is hard to imagine what information any of us could have that would disprove that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 27, 2013, 09:06:39 am
Bryant isn't exactly endearing himself to Cubs' fans, and it would get worse if we actually lost Clifton, Alamo and perhaps others because he waited too long to sign his contract. Clifton, Alamo, et al wouldn't like it, either. If he isn't signed by July 1, I'd offer him $6 million and tell Bryant and Boras that the offer goes down by $100,000 every 24 hours until he signs or the deadline passes.

When push comes to shove, eventually you do whatever it takes to get Bryant signed, period.  He's the one, after all, who is a premium talent.

Hopefully we'll be able to negotiate a deal that gets him signed and allows us to sign some other players too.  Priority #1, though, is to get your top draft pick signed.   That's where Boras has his leverage.

Also, casual Cub fans really don't care that much about guys like Clifton or Alamo, so that probably won't ever really be held against him if he demands a bonus that keeps us from signing them (and especially won't ever be held against him if he produces). 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 27, 2013, 09:10:03 am
Remember if we don't get Bryant signed, that means we also lose the pool money to sign guys like Clifton or Alamo. 

That's another part of the trickiness of these negotiations.  Boras obviously knows that as well.  We have to sign his guy to be able to get some of the other players we want signed as well.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 27, 2013, 09:13:25 am
It may be that Bryant is demanding so much that the Cubs can not sign Alamo or whoever.  If that is the case, they will have to decide what is best for the Cubs.

They have access to hundreds of scouting reports, and have first hand knowledge of all aspects of the negotiations.  Is there anyone on this board that is in a better position to make that call than the Cubs front office?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Santo4HofF on June 27, 2013, 09:34:11 am
No one is in better position. However, several feel as if they are.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on June 27, 2013, 09:36:59 am
No one is in better position. However, several feel as if they are.
Truer words have never been spoken.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 27, 2013, 09:48:33 am
I've never seen any of these guys play, I don't know any of the front office guys personally, but I have absolute trust in the opinions of everyone on this board.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on June 27, 2013, 09:56:27 am
Except if the sum total of your viewpoint is deference to management in all things because they know better, what's the point in having a discussion forum at all?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on June 27, 2013, 09:58:56 am
From what I've read, Bryant is risking losing a lot of money if he doesn't sign.  The chances of his losing money derive from possible injury, fall off in performance as a senior, and the likelihood that even if neither of those things happen his draft status is likely to fall off some next year.  With respect to purely the issue of money, Boras has to ensure that in the end Bryant signs with the Cubs.  And money is almost always the driving consideration in these situations.  Bryant will sign, and it will have very little to do with the skill of the front office- it's just good business for all concerned.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 27, 2013, 10:54:37 am
Sorry, Jes, but we do not have enough information to say that if Bryant fails to sign, that means the Cubs front office screwed up.

davep, if the Cubs thought they could sign him for X and they drafted him based on that expectation, and he and Boras are now demanding something greater than X and the demand figure is one the Cubs refuse to pay and Bryant continues insisting on it and the Cubs fail to sign him, then the Cubs will have screwed up.

I am NOT tying to suggest that it would involved any mistake by the Theocracy in the negotiations or in how much they are offering.

I am merely saying that if they fail to sign their first round draft pick, the 2nd pick in the draft, and he is someone they actually want (which is pretty much a give for someone taken with the 2nd pick in the draft), then they have screwed up.  That screw up may well have come BEFORE the draft in determining how much it would take to sign him, and they may have conducted the negotiations themselves perfectly, but regardless at what point the mistake would have taken place, a failure to sign Bryant would represent the biggest mistake we have seen so far from Theo and his friends.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 27, 2013, 11:38:11 am
They have access to hundreds of scouting reports, and have first hand knowledge of all aspects of the negotiations.  Is there anyone on this board that is in a better position to make that call than the Cubs front office?

Obviously some are convinced that they are either more knowledgeable or smarter than the Cubs brass.  Theo and his team were apparently only really good at what they do before joining the Cubs.  Once becoming Cubs, they lost it all.   ;)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 27, 2013, 11:43:54 am
I guess it's just an inherent need for Cub fans to wring their hands on message boards, whatever the subject.  There is a deep belief that something will go wrong, no matter what. Maybe it was that way in Boston before they finally won it all.  But I'm not sure that will change for some Cub fans even if the Cubs make it to the World Series (or even win it) some day.  The worst thing about that is this affliction can limit one's ability to enjoy things for what they are when good things do happen, due to worrying about what disappointments lurk around the corner.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on June 27, 2013, 12:09:04 pm
John Arguello of Cubs Den chimes in on the drama around Kris Bryant.  Here's are excerpts:

Bryant has little to gain by going back to school.  Unlike Mark Appel, who slipped to #8 in the draft and received a well below value offer of 3.8M, something he could have easily surpassed simply by repeating his excellent season at Stanford -- which he of course did.  In fact, he improved his stock.  Bryant, on the other hand, loses money if he drops down to the 3rd spot, which is not only possible, but likely.  Carlos Rodon is the heavy favorite to be #1 and Bryant should go no higher than #2 -- perhaps less if other players emerge.  He'll enter the same position next with the same or even less leverage than Appel did this year.  To think he could possibly make 6.7M as a college senior in a draft where he probably won't go first is beyond the reaches of even Boras' negotiating skill.
...

It's simple.  Bryant signing with the Cubs is the best outcome for him, his agent, and the Cubs.   It is in the best interests for all involved to get this thing done.  So it will get done.
 
The rest is just drama.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/only-one-thing-makes-sense-for-all-parties-involved-kris-bryant-will-sign/ (http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/only-one-thing-makes-sense-for-all-parties-involved-kris-bryant-will-sign/)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 27, 2013, 12:22:18 pm
"Drama" is silly.  There is none.  He'll sign, everybody should know that.  It's just a question of when and for how much.  Even with the great Boras as agent, Appel got barely over $6 this round.  So there is no upside for Bryant.  It's just a question of when Bryant signs and whether any cash will be left for other talent.  Boras can wait it out and try to get the full 105%.  Why not? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on June 27, 2013, 12:42:09 pm
"Drama" is silly.  There is none.  He'll sign, everybody should know that.  It's just a question of when and for how much.  Even with the great Boras as agent, Appel got barely over $6 this round.  So there is no upside for Bryant.  It's just a question of when Bryant signs and whether any cash will be left for other talent.  Boras can wait it out and try to get the full 105%.  Why not? 

Why not? Boras already has a few teams that won't deal with him and his clients. If that number gets too big, future prospects and free agents may decide to hire other agents instead of Boras.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on June 27, 2013, 12:53:48 pm
Boras has been in business a long time with a reputation.  His reputation doesn't appear to have pushed the top two guys in this draft away; instead it appears to have attracted them.  Everybody knows Bryant wants to sign and that it will make no business sense to go back to school, yet Boras is still going to get him a really good contract this summer.  I don't think that will be at all discouraging to the next good prospect looking for an agent. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 27, 2013, 01:38:07 pm
"Drama" is silly.  There is none.  He'll sign, everybody should know that.  It's just a question of when and for how much.  Even with the great Boras as agent, Appel got barely over $6 this round.  So there is no upside for Bryant.  It's just a question of when Bryant signs and whether any cash will be left for other talent.  Boras can wait it out and try to get the full 105%.  Why not? 
  Perhaps the Cubs are providing the drama.  Anything to distract people from the product on the field.  Just sayin'
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 27, 2013, 01:48:58 pm
On the other hand, basing an argument on ignorance and prejudice is a discussion probably not worth having.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on June 27, 2013, 01:53:30 pm
Are you saying I'm ignorant and prejudiced?  Just wondering so I can update my resume.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on June 27, 2013, 01:58:29 pm
I never said that you were ignorant and prejudiced.

It is so obvious that I never bothered to say it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on June 27, 2013, 04:35:01 pm
I guess it's just an inherent need for Cub fans to wring their hands on message boards, whatever the subject.  There is a deep belief that something will go wrong, no matter what. Maybe it was that way in Boston before they finally won it all.  But I'm not sure that will change for some Cub fans even if the Cubs make it to the World Series (or even win it) some day.  The worst thing about that is this affliction can limit one's ability to enjoy things for what they are when good things do happen, due to worrying about what disappointments lurk around the corner.

I'm not sure who it is that believes that something will go wrong regarding signing Bryant.

I have merely commented that IF they fail to sign him, that will reflect a front office screw up.

I have not indicated that I expect Bryant to walk away from whatever the Cubs offer in the hope of getting a bit more next year.  I expect him to sign.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Santo4HofF on June 27, 2013, 07:39:55 pm
Unless I am mistaken, the Bryant deal is the only contract negotiation of significance that Boras has ongoing currently. If he settles this quickly and easily he will be bored with little to do untill free agency time. Heck, the guy just has to have some fun!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 27, 2013, 09:41:02 pm
Quote
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA
#Cubs will sign him, but might be last 1st-rder to get done. @chrislowy: Is Bryant the next? #mlbdraft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 28, 2013, 12:45:48 pm
The Cubs are the favorites to land BA's #1 and #2 international ranked prospects.

Quote
1. Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic
Born: Nov. 27, 1996. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. B-T: R-R.

It’s hard to find one player who clearly stands above the rest in this year’s international signing class, but Jimenez is the closest thing to a consensus choice. He has traveled to play in international tournaments going back to 2008, when he played in the Cal Ripken World Series in Aberdeen, Md., and was teammates with Mets shortstop Amed Rosario. He went to Miami to play for the Dominican team that won its third consecutive championship in the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities World Series junior division last summer, following Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman of the Rangers in 2011 and Gustavo Cabrera of the Giants in 2012.

Jimenez plays in the International Prospect League and trains with Amauris Nina, the same trainer who produced Royals $3 million outfielder Elier Hernandez in 2011, and scouts think the two are comparable. Several teams see Jimenez as a better version of Hernandez. He has good baseball instincts, but his bat isn’t as advanced as Guzman’s or last year’s No. 1 prospect, Blue Jays Venezuelan shortstop Franklin Barreto. Some scouts have seen him hit in games, while others haven’t seen the game dominance that would merit the type of bonus he’s expected to command. His long arms create length to his swing and he will need to keep his hips from flying open too early, but he has good hand-eye coordination and uses the middle of the field. Jimenez has average raw power and a flat swing that results in hard line drives rather than loft power. With his size and strength potential, he could grow into above-average power. Some scouts think he has the ingredients to hit, so it may be a matter of making subtle adjustments.

Jimenez is athletic for his size and in January ran the 60-yard dash in 6.72 seconds, which is above-average speed. Others have said his speed plays closer to average and because of his frame and unusual gait, he will continue to slow down as he fills out, so he’s a corner outfielder all the way. With a slightly above-average arm, he should be able to play right field. The Cubs have the second-highest international bonus pool this year and are seen as the favorites to sign Jimenez, whose price tag is expected to be in the $2.4 million-$2.8 million neighborhood.

Quote
2. Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela Born: Dec. 13, 1996. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185. B-T: R-R.

Every year trainer Ciro Barrios has some of the most expensive players in Venezuela. His best prospect yet, Barreto, signed with the Blue Jays last year for $1.45 million, and Torres is the top Venezuelan prospect this year, though he isn’t as advanced as Barreto.

Torres is a savvy player with present skills and the potential for five average or better tools. He has a clean, compact stroke, hits in games and shows good power projection, although he mostly works the gaps right now. He has good bat speed and hand-eye coordination to put the ball in play, although he can be a bit of a front-foot hitter and tends to pull off the ball at times.

Some scouts believe Torres is a true shortstop, while others think he’s not athletic enough. He could end up being a guy who splits time between shortstop, third base and second base, with a skill set that draws comparisons to Freddy Sanchez. He has good hands and a strong arm, but he doesn’t have the classic wiry shortstop frame and is already fairly filled out. Back in November, Torres showed above-average speed, but more recently he’s been running closer to average.

Some scouts wonder if Torres has just been coasting because he knows it’s unlikely anyone has the budget to pay him more than the Cubs, the team he’s most associated with. He’s expected to be the top-paid player in Venezuela, and some scouts prefer him to Jimenez. The two may end up being teammates soon.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on June 28, 2013, 12:47:38 pm
Quote
16. Erling Moreno, rhp, Colombia
Born: Jan. 13, 1997. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 190. B-T: R-R.

Erick Julio and Moreno are the best of Colombia’s bumper crop of pitchers, though lefthander Luis Barrios could also end up with a mid-six-figure bonus. While Julio stands out for his feel for pitching and projection for three pitches, Moreno has a bigger frame and projects to be more of a power pitcher.

Moreno doesn’t have a plus fastball yet, working anywhere from 87-90 mph, but he has plenty of room to add weight and velocity so he could throw in the mid-90s eventually. He gets good angle on his fastball and works down in the strike zone. He keeps hitters off his fastball with a solid changeup, a pitch that some scouts think is ahead of his breaking ball. Other scouts prefer his breaking ball and think it’s a projectable pitch. Moreno, who trains with Edinson Renteria, has drawn a lot of interest from the Cubs.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on June 28, 2013, 01:37:53 pm
They are also in a 6-7 RHP that is 17, Jefferson Mejia.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on June 29, 2013, 09:10:22 pm
Charcer Burks has signed. That makes 9 of the first 10 in the Cubs' draft.

Also, Austin Meadows signed with Pittsburgh.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on July 02, 2013, 10:40:56 am
Jefferson Mejia has signed, 850K...

Gleyber Torres announcing later this afternoon...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on July 02, 2013, 11:03:00 am
Torres is now a Cub as well...1.7 million...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on July 02, 2013, 04:39:47 pm
If my arithmetic is correct, the Cubs have $2,449,465 remaining in their IFA bonus pool (including 5% over the cap). I haven't been able to find out how much Johan Matos received. The balance after Matos might or might not be enough to sign Eloy Jimenez. Even if it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see another trade for IFA slots, as there are still a few young foreign players we haven't signed.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 02, 2013, 05:10:31 pm
Googling Johan Matos and I have found zero links before today and zero information about the guy.  Anybody have anything on him? 

Maybe he signed for a couple of bucks and Clevenger's old equipment.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on July 02, 2013, 06:06:32 pm
There's a chance Matos signed for $50,000 or less, which wouldn't affect the bucks available for Eloy Jimenez. But there's also a chance he got more, which would eat into the $2,449,465 ceiling. I suspect their are still other IFA's the Cubs would like to sign, and there are still teams willing to swap IFA swaps for players or prospects.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 02, 2013, 06:14:14 pm
I'm sure some of you saw the other day that the Bleacher Nation guy interviewed Jason Parks, the National Prospect and Player Development Writer for Baseball Prospectus. Parks wasn't real high on Jimenez -- said he was a showcase warrior but that in game situations he wasn't a very good baseball player. But, the kid is 16, so who knows.

Parks also said this about Albert Almora, " I recognize what awesome looks like. And it’s him."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 02, 2013, 06:21:34 pm
Actually, it looks more like Byron Buxton to me.  But Almora looks OK too.

I like Almora, but I do worry a bit about not seeing any one offensive weapon that stands out.  I don't think you're going to see a lot of HR or SB, and right now you're not seeing any walks.  He may learn to be a little more patient but I don't think he's ever going to be a big-time OBP guy.  He may grow into 15 HR power, and he'll probably steal 10-15 bases.  But he's going to have to hit .300 to be a good offensive player.  The flipside, of course, is that he seems like a pretty good bet to do that, and his glove is certainly legit in CF.  A .300-350-420-770 type player with a plus glove in CF is nothing to sneeze at, but he certainly doesn't appear to have the ceiling of some elite prospects.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on July 02, 2013, 07:06:05 pm
I'm sure some of you saw the other day that the Bleacher Nation guy interviewed Jason Parks, the National Prospect and Player Development Writer for Baseball Prospectus. Parks wasn't real high on Jimenez -- said he was a showcase warrior but that in game situations he wasn't a very good baseball player. But, the kid is 16, so who knows.....

I'd wondered about that.  What little I'd read said he had a nice frame and a nice stroke.  But he doesn't have power, that's only projection.  He hasn't hit in games, hitting is projection.  He hasn't looked good against 16-year-old Dominican breaking stuff, that's projection.  He doesn't run fast.  Kinda sounded like a guy with a nice-looking swing who hit some nice-looking line drives off of straight BP pitching.  All projection from there.  I guess that's the way business works, with high-school sophomore types.   
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on July 02, 2013, 07:20:51 pm
Yep, there was barely any interest in me when I was a high school sophomore OFer, and ........................
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on July 03, 2013, 09:09:47 am
I like Almora, but I do worry a bit about not seeing any one offensive weapon that stands out.  I don't think you're going to see a lot of HR or SB, and right now you're not seeing any walks.  He may learn to be a little more patient but I don't think he's ever going to be a big-time OBP guy.  He may grow into 15 HR power, and he'll probably steal 10-15 bases.  But he's going to have to hit .300 to be a good offensive player.

Almost sounds like Roberto Clemente, who never stole more than 12 bases in a season, only had more than 16 HR 6 times in 18 full major league seasons, only hit more than 23 once, and only walked more than 50 times in a season in three years, topping out at 56 (while he did finish in the top 5 in OBP, both times that was driven by his BA, leading the league in hitting both times).

Thru his career, Clemente also had to hit .300 to be a good offensive player (Clemente never once had an OPS+ above 95 without a BA above .300.)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 03, 2013, 05:54:30 pm
Bleacher Nation is quoting a tweet from Jesse Sanchez that the Cubs have signed Jimenez for $2.8M and that the mystery catcher Matos (?) was $270K. They don't have that money in their pool, though, so I'm confused. But, hell, I just started a post by quoting a tweet that I read on a blog, so confused is about par for the course.
boom-cubs-agree-to-terms-with-top-international-prospect-eloy-jimenez-2-8-million-and-scholarship
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on July 08, 2013, 01:27:45 pm
The Cubs are targeting a Taiwanese pitcher:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-cubs-pursuing-jenho-tseng-20130708,0,4035665.story
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on July 08, 2013, 01:42:06 pm
Tyler Alamo has signed, per his Twitter, and is in Arizona.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on July 08, 2013, 02:08:11 pm
Interesting, both Tseng (?) and Alamo. 
Alamo is a puzzle.  Options:
1.  He's signing for slot plus college money.  Does not put us into penalty.
2.  He's reached an agreement, and thinks he's signed, and is maybe in Arizona for physical and perhaps for all else Mesa.  But perhaps the Cubs haven't finalized yet, and won't submit to league office until Bryant is finalized. 
3.  Perhaps he's signed, it's official, and the Cubs are in penalty until/unless Bryant signs, but they don't care.  Perhaps they have a nice gentleman's trust with Boras.  Or don't, but still have no doubt that Bryant will sign.  Perhaps the Cubs have wanted Boras to come to terms, and then use what's left on Clifton/Alamo/whomever.  But since Boras wants slot+5% and wants to stall it till deadline, perhaps it's the Cubs bluff.  Sign Alamo, Clifton, whomever else overslot, tell Bryant what's left and that he can take it or leave it.  Trust that he'll do so, and if Boras/Bryant don't, then you lose Bryant this year and lose your top pick next year too. 

All logic of course says of course Bryant should and will sign.  Still, Boras doesn't like the system and has a vested interest in breaking the system.  He may like it very well if the Cubs were to go into penalty on a bluff, and then he were to hold Bryant back for another year, just as he did with Appel last year. 

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 08, 2013, 03:38:28 pm
Part of me wants Bryant not sign and the Cubs end up with the #2 pick from sucking.  The look on Boras face when he realizes that the draft order would be 1.1 Marlins 1.2 Cubs 1.3 Cubs might be worth it.  With that said, no way Bryant doesn't sign.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on July 08, 2013, 03:46:19 pm
Even without Feldman the Cubs' starting pitching is good enough to keep them out of the top five picks. If Garza is traded, perhaps that changes.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 08, 2013, 06:52:21 pm
I think it depends more on what happens to the bullpen, than the starting pitching. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on July 08, 2013, 07:51:19 pm
Even without Feldman the Cubs' starting pitching is good enough to keep them out of the top five picks. If Garza is traded, perhaps that changes.

That starting pitching hasn't done too much to boost them in the standings so far.  No real reason to believe that will change, particularly when management is trading off current value roster parts for future value roster parts.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on July 08, 2013, 08:12:08 pm
Quote
That starting pitching hasn't done too much to boost them in the standings so far.


It's done enough to give them fewer losses than six teams and tied with two others.


And the Phillies, Dodgers, and Mariners have all outperformed their RD's. If they revert to the mean, they could pass the Cubs in the loss column too.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on July 09, 2013, 03:44:10 pm
John Arguello provides a good case for "Why Kris Bryant will sign."

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/07/why-kris-bryant-will-sign/ (http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/07/why-kris-bryant-will-sign/)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 09, 2013, 03:48:32 pm
Bryant signing is just about the last thing I'm worried about.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on July 10, 2013, 03:47:25 pm
Bryant agrees to record signing bonus with Cubs

By Paul Sullivan, Tribune reporter
3:42 p.m. CDT, July 10, 2013
Third baseman Kris Bryant, the No. 2 pick in the draft, has agreed to a deal with the Cubs for the slot signing bonus of around $6.7 million.


Bryant is taking a physical today, a source said, and the deal should be announced soon.


The bonus would be a record, since No. 1 pick Mark Appel agreed to sign for $6.3 million, under slot value, with Houston.


The Cubs had no comment on Bryant. CBSSports.com reported earlier the two sides were "very close."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: guest61 on July 10, 2013, 04:24:49 pm
I dont think there was really any doubt but it's still good to see us get it done.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 10, 2013, 04:30:36 pm
Glad to get that out of the way without any deadline drama.

I guess the only question is, do we have enough to get Clifton to sign?  Without doing a lot of sophisticated math on it, I think the most we can offer him now is around $500,000. 

That's still pretty solid 3rd to 4th round money, but he wanted $800K.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 10, 2013, 04:47:26 pm
Callis has the Bryant signing exactly at slot.

Assuming that Cubs go to exactly 5% overage and assuming that Alamo signed exactly at $100,000, that would leave $440,925 for Clifton.  The slot for that amount of money is about 4th round, pick 10.

Wonder if Clifton is going to go for that?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on July 10, 2013, 05:07:09 pm
You can see why clients choose Boras, and why he plays the games he plays.  The Cubs should have been able to hold the line and Bryant should have been good to go at $6.0.  Would Bryant have gone back to school at $6.0 offer?  Of course it wouldn't seem to make sense. 

But Boras plays tough, he knows that Hoyer/Theo/McLeod can't afford to let their top pick go, and eventually he knows they will give him the money. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 10, 2013, 05:47:44 pm
Yep Boras is definitely great at what he does. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 10, 2013, 06:01:39 pm
FWIW Marlin Bystro is saying Clifton will still sign and he still has a Cub logo up on his twitter account.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 10, 2013, 07:10:17 pm
I can't find any Trevor Clifton Twitter account that has a Cubs logo, FWIW...
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: mO on July 10, 2013, 07:12:09 pm
https://twitter.com/trevorclifton1
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 10, 2013, 07:15:58 pm
Deeg didn't get past Jesus and the Bible.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 10, 2013, 07:17:45 pm
No, I never even found that one at all.  I even tried searching for "Marysville" but that extra "S" threw me.

Nice to see the logo there, but somehow I don't take that as official.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 10, 2013, 07:21:32 pm
Maybe Clifton signed one of those fill-in-the-blanks contracts back in June---like the one Andre Dawson signed some years ago.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 10, 2013, 07:26:12 pm
Only if Jesus told him to.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 10, 2013, 07:27:39 pm
Bruce on Clifton:  "As long as there's still a couple days, there's a chance."
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 10, 2013, 07:36:19 pm
Basically Boras took about $300K of Clifton's money then.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 10, 2013, 07:37:26 pm
realrkennedy ‏@realrkennedy 18m
@trevorclifton1 hopefully the Cubs left themselves some budget room to bring you aboard.
Expand
 Clifton ‏@trevorclifton1 16m
@realrkennedy heard that! We will see

Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 10, 2013, 07:50:03 pm
If you were a kid who hoped to be taken higher and expected $8-900K, and now faced with a choice of $440K or waiting three years and hoping to get more then, what would you do?   I have no idea of Clifton's family situation but it's an interesting question.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 10, 2013, 07:59:25 pm
Take the money and money for college.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 10, 2013, 08:02:39 pm
Can't take $400K.  A guy's gotta eat!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 10, 2013, 08:03:18 pm
Can he decline his American citizenship and then sign for foreign player slot money?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 10, 2013, 08:04:36 pm
@GrantRamey ‏@GrantRamey 42m
The Cubs have signed No. 2 overall pick Kris Bryant. Former Heritage P Trevor Clifton and the Cubs were waiting on that.
 Retweeted by Clifton
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 10, 2013, 08:24:29 pm
If you were a kid who hoped to be taken higher and expected $8-900K, and now faced with a choice of $440K or waiting three years and hoping to get more then, what would you do?   I have no idea of Clifton's family situation but it's an interesting question.

I think that's a tough call.  Is it worth $440K to delay going to college until you're a 24 year old freshman, starting your real career at age 28-30, and giving up 3-6 years of earning power in what will most likely be your real career?

Vanderbilt's Tim Corbin has made a living convincing high school kids it isn't worth it, even when major league teams are throwing seven figure bonuses at them.  Of course, that's a Vanderbilt scholarship we're talking about there, but I think that applies in a lot of other cases as well. 

Kind of like what you guys say, though, a lot of that depends on his family circumstances, how academically inclined he really is, etc.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on July 10, 2013, 08:35:12 pm
Once you expect to go pro, it's tough to reverse field I suspect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on July 11, 2013, 12:30:17 am
If Clifton feels the Cubs have always treated him fairly and he wants to pursue pro baseball as a career, he'll accept. If he truly wanted to go to college but was blown away by the prospect of third-round money, he probably won't.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 11, 2013, 06:29:01 am
If he trusts the Cubs, they may make some promises to him about compensating in the future.  Kids tend to believe that crap.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on July 11, 2013, 10:34:20 am
I think that, for the most part, unwritten promises are kept.  However, the promises with unwritten promises is that each side sometimes honestly believes something different than the other side.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 11, 2013, 01:02:58 pm
I think that, for the most part, unwritten promises are kept.  However, the promises with unwritten promises is that each side sometimes honestly believes something different than the other side.
The problem with unwritten promises is that the one making the promise gets canned.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 11, 2013, 06:28:51 pm
Tyler Alamo has signed for $100K.  From what I've read, it would leave about $440K (plus college scholarship money) to Clifton. Signing Clifton would give them all of their first 24 picks except for Poncedeleon, who signed and then didn't (failed physical?).

Isn't Clifton the kid who has tweeted his dislike of school?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2013, 09:46:13 pm
Madison Blevins ‏@M_Blev_4 50m
Good dinner with my parents, @Whitney_Smith23 and @trevorclifton1 before Trevor leaves us to start his pro baseball career! Love them!

From somebody stalking him on PSD.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on July 11, 2013, 09:55:11 pm
Nice!  Good news on Clifton.  Excellent. 

Shasson, BA doesn't show signings for #19 (Will Remilard, C) or 21 (the almost-24-year old pitcher from West Virginia, josh McCauley).  Have they signed? 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 11, 2013, 09:57:13 pm
craig I'm guilty of restating something I read somewhere else without substantiating it. Perhaps those guys did not sign. But, still, a nice haul anyway you slice it.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 11, 2013, 09:58:26 pm
Well if we got Clifton, that definitely puts a nice little bow on the draft.  We pretty much got all of our targets, increased our pitching depth, and got Bryant in without a great deal of deadline drama. 

McLeod and company have to be pretty happy with how things turned out.  Now let's see if they actually drafted some good players.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 11, 2013, 10:17:09 pm
PSD has everybody but Poncedeleon and Remilad signing until Doi.  He has no info on Remilad though.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 08:26:02 am
Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 8h

Just noticed top 4 #mlbdraft bonuses ever are all Boras Corp.: Cole ($8 mil), Strasburg ($7.5 mil), Starling ($7.5 mil), Bryant ($6,708,400)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: craig on July 12, 2013, 10:30:14 am
Remilard has apparently signed, based on a tweet from him yesterday. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2013, 12:43:47 pm
Remilard hurt his back recently and was released by his Cape Cod League club---a good catch and throw guy and not much power.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 12, 2013, 01:07:59 pm
Bryant and Boras are at Wrigley today for a press conference. He will go to Mesa then Boise. Wonder if Bryant will take BP at Wrigley - or if former Cubs' farmhand Boras will?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 01:12:04 pm
Boras was a former Cubs farmhand?  I didn't know that.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on July 12, 2013, 01:12:36 pm
Bryant and Boras are at Wrigley today for a press conference. He will go to Mesa then Boise. Wonder if Bryant will take BP at Wrigley - or if former Cubs' farmhand Boras will?

Kris Bryant taking grounders at 3B.  He hit eight homers during BP.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO_bkbjCIAEvVaY.jpg)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on July 12, 2013, 01:16:54 pm
More Bryant photos.  Third is with Jed Hoyer.  Fourth is Dale Sveum.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO_QUwvCMAAzRpb.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO_PIzZCAAE_yRC.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO_Oy0SCIAMyAZf.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO_OlQDCQAAwf-0.jpg)
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 01:19:05 pm
Hopefully he'll be taking batting practice for real in a couple of years.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2013, 01:24:41 pm
Hopefully he'll be taking batting practice for real in a couple of years.
And hopefully he will no longer talking to Dale Sveum.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: shasson on July 12, 2013, 01:25:51 pm
JR, what fun is that? How about real BP next year, because of his incredible phenom-can't-miss-ness?

And here is baseball-reference page for Boras. Mainly a Cardinal, but briefly a Cub:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=boras-001sco
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2013, 01:27:11 pm
A Cardinal!  No wonder I hate him.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2013, 01:27:38 pm
He was probably a throw in when we traded Brock.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Ron on July 12, 2013, 01:28:45 pm
I have to admit that I'm pretty excited about Kris Bryant.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2013, 01:47:13 pm
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/07/game-notes-video-from-the-future-kris-bryant-takes-bp-at-wrigley-field/

Has a couple of Vine video's of Bryant
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 02:15:58 pm
You can shave another $50,000 off of Clifton's potential bonus.

Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 16m

#Cubs sign 19th-rder Will Remillard for $150k. Coastal Carolina C helped his cause with a strong Cape Cod Lg performance. #mlbdraft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 02:17:10 pm
Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 16m

Bryant. @chicagochiguy: Coming into their professional careers who did you have rated higher - Braun or Bryant? #Brewers #Cubs #mlbdraft

Hopefully Bryant doesn't have to resort to the same kind of tactics to be a successful major leaguer that Braun has.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on July 12, 2013, 02:21:16 pm
Clifton tweets that he is officially a Cub:

https://twitter.com/trevorclifton1
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 02:21:39 pm
Clifton deal official!

Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 26s

#Cubs sign 11th-rder Trevor Clifton (148 on BA 500) for $375k. Tenn. HS RHP, sits 92-93, up to 97, promising curve & change too. #mlbdraft
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on July 12, 2013, 02:31:40 pm
His girlfriend gets a $500K job with the Cubs opening his mail.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on July 12, 2013, 02:50:58 pm
Remilad got $150,000.  I guess he improved his stock in the Cape.

Cubs have $15,000 and change left before they lose a pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 04:06:18 pm
Well in wondering if $370K or $440K is worth it to give up college and turn pro, I would say $2.6 million (especially for a high school pitcher for goc's sake) is more than plenty enough to turn pro.

Quote
Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA 1m

#BlueJays did not sign 10th overall pick Phil Bickford, who's headed to Cal State Fullerton. #mlbdraft

Seriously has this guy not learned his lesson from the likes of Matt Harrington, Karsten Whitson, etc.?  If your arm gets shredded up in the next three years, there goes your $2.6 million.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2013, 04:28:11 pm
Cubs paid out highest bonus of any club in rounds 1 (Bryant), 3 (Hannemann), and 4 (Skulina).
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on July 12, 2013, 04:35:45 pm
Those cheap bastards.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 12, 2013, 06:20:04 pm
Remilad got $150,000.  I guess he improved his stock in the Cape.

Cubs have $15,000 and change left before they lose a pick.

Remillard went 297-333-378 at the Cape in 39 PAs.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I saw him play one game there.  Good arm and moves well behind the plate. A legit defensive catcher. A contact-type hitter.  I don't see the power potential with this guy but we'll see.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 06:34:51 pm
Getting Coastal Carolina's sophomore starting catcher can't be a bad thing.  That's a good baseball program.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cactus on July 12, 2013, 06:42:13 pm
Blue Jays fail to sign top draft pick Bickford
Updated: July 12, 2013, 6:12 PM ET
Associated Press

BALTIMORE -- The Toronto Blue Jays failed to reach an agreement with top draft pick Phil Bickford, the 10th overall selection in last month's amateur draft.

Bickford was the only player among the 33 first-round picks not to sign by Friday's 5 p.m. deadline. The right-hander, who starred at Oaks Christian High School in California, will apparently continue his career at Cal State Fullerton.

His pick had a slot value of $2,921,400, and the figure is deducted from Toronto's signing bonus pool because he didn't reach an agreement.

The Blue Jays will get the No. 11 pick in next year's draft as compensation.

Bickford turned 18 on Wednesday. The 6-foot-4, 185-pounder has a fastball that has been clocked at 97 mph
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on July 12, 2013, 06:44:55 pm
That's one of the most pronounced uppercuts I've seen in a top prospect.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on July 12, 2013, 07:03:27 pm
Phil, I hope your arm stays healthy the next three years.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Playtwo on July 12, 2013, 09:56:57 pm
Tidbits about Kris Bryant's dad:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/21289103-419/cubs-kris-bryant-received-quite-an-education-in-hitting.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on July 12, 2013, 10:18:55 pm
Bickford failing to sign could push the Cubs back another spot in the draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Cubsin on July 13, 2013, 01:00:12 am
One more reason to finish in the bottom 10. At least nobody will lose a protected pick in next year's draft like the Mets did in this year's.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Jes Beard on July 13, 2013, 02:26:41 am
One more reason to finish in the bottom 10.

Some things just come naturally.  Finishing in the bottom 10 this year will be like rolling off a log.  With the bodies which will be lost from the current roster before the end of the year, and what the Cubs get in return for them, I doubt there is any way the team could avoid the bottom 10 if it desperately tried.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on July 13, 2013, 04:48:48 pm
10 1/2 minutes of Kris Bryant. Lots of swings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVZx_W_XIJ8
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on August 14, 2013, 05:30:51 pm
One early look at next year's top prospects including Cape Cod riser Jeff Hoffman:

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-top-50-prospects/36463
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on August 14, 2013, 06:13:44 pm
Kodi Medrios breaking ball in understated in that piece.  It might be unhittable by left handed hitters. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Chris27 on September 18, 2013, 04:39:10 am
Kiley McDaniel's first 2014 draft ranking. It's a few weeks old. Hoffman is this year's Manea with a stellar Cape Cod showing.


http://sbb.scout.com/2/1318151.html
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on September 18, 2013, 09:35:32 am
Alex Jackson if he can stick at catcher is really interesting.

Kodi Mederios slider is amazing, if he could make it to the second round he would be really interesting.

Beede if he can throw strikes might be #2.

So many high school power arms in this draft.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on September 18, 2013, 12:11:38 pm
High school catchers drafted in the first round fail at an even more alarming rate than Vanilla Ice movies, I think.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CUBluejays on September 18, 2013, 03:09:25 pm
High school pitchers would give them a run for their money, but yes they tend to be very bust worthy. 
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Dave23 on September 30, 2013, 04:18:01 pm
Moved back from Archives...found this article interesting...

Houston's Poncedeleon ineligible

Kendall Rogers     
Published: Monday, September 30, 2013

The University of Houston could enter the 2014 college baseball season without one of its elite arms in senior right-handed pitcher Daniel Poncedeleon, who for now, has been declared ineligible by the NCAA to play in the spring because of concerns surrounding his amateur status.

Poncedeleon's situation has been a whirlwind for the Cougars. UH head coach Todd Whitting was ecstatic earlier this summer when Poncedeleon returned to college for the fall semester despite being a 14th-round (408) selection to the Chicago Cubs.

As Whitting soon found out, that feeling of euphoria was overshadowed by disappointment.

Though Poncedeleon, in fact, returned to Houston for the fall, his story had plenty of moving parts. Poncedeleon actually agreed to terms with the Cubs. And though most players verbally agree to terms with clubs, only to sometimes end up in college, Poncedeleon, according to Whitting and the Cougars, did so in written fashion.

Poncedeleon, after agreeing to terms, flew to Arizona for his physical exam. The 6-foot-4, 195-pounder, failed his physical, thus nullifying that agreement of terms. More importantly in this situation, Poncedeleon never signed his Uniform Player Contract (UPC), thus there was not a financial transaction.

The University of Houston self-reported Poncedeleon's signing of the agreement to terms, but hasn't received a positive result. The NCAA declared Poncedeleon ineligible to compete in the spring after receiving that information, and a first appeal by UH was denied by the NCAA. Houston is in the process of filing a second and final appeal to the organization.

"In Daniel's situation, I'm confident the NCAA will be fair and just in this unique of situations," Whitting said. "Daniel didn't feel like he was jeopardizing his amateur status by simply signing an agreement to terms. I just want them [NCAA] to be fair in this situation."

Both the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball have sent Houston documentation clearly stating the agreement to terms was not a binding financial document.

Time will tell if the NCAA decides to overturn the Poncedeleon decision, but there's no doubt it could have lasting effects, or perhaps even spur reform, on dealing with amateurism in college baseball.

There are numerous cases in the past when players have verbally agreed to terms with professional baseball clubs, only to attend college. Only in this situation with the UH right-handed pitcher, the fact is he signed a document agreeing to terms. That's the sticking point in this matter, as there's a line drawn between verbal and written agreements.

The NCAA will not address pending investigations or appeals, but NCAA Associate Director for Public and Media Relations Cameron Schuh was kind enough to provide the rules surrounding amateurism in intercollegiate athletics.

Poncedeleon's situation would sit under Rule 12.1.2, Part C, which states: "Signs a contract or commitment of any kind to play professional athletics, regardless of its legal enforceability or any consideration received, except as permitted in Bylaw 12.2.5.1."

Poncedeleon, who has a fastball anywhere between 89-92, would log significant innings for the Cougars in 2014. The righty finished last season with a 4.47 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work, along with 62 strikeouts and 34 walks. Should UH's second appeal fail, Poncedeleon would be forced to either finish out his senior year as a student only at UH, or head to an NAIA baseball program for his senior campaign.

For now, it looks bleak that Poncedeleon returns to the mound for UH in 2014. The question, though: Should there be a distinction between verbal and written agreements?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on September 30, 2013, 04:21:29 pm
The NCAA is so pathetic.

All of these NCAA administrators make six and seven figure salaries, the big time football and basketball coaches make seven figures, they rake in millions and billions of dollars in TV contracts and endorsements, and yet they're keeping this kid from playing even though the Cubs didn't pay him a dime.

Pathetic.  The players need to be paid.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: BullingersEars on September 30, 2013, 07:00:10 pm
Having watched a bit of video, I like Hoffman's mechanics and "stuff" more than anyone in the 2013 draft.  His strikeout rates are a bit low in high school and early in college but look to be increasing...

He's my early guy!
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: StrikeZone on September 30, 2013, 08:57:35 pm
And yet Johnny Manziel continues to play football.

Genius.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: JR on September 30, 2013, 09:02:10 pm
And yet Johnny Manziel continues to play football.

Genius.

EFZ
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: DelMarFan on October 01, 2013, 11:09:52 am
Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe?
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: CurtOne on October 01, 2013, 11:49:08 am
close
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on October 24, 2013, 05:28:53 pm
Keith Law's top 15 for 2014 draft.  Anybody have a preference (aside from Rodon who figures to be gone)?

1. Carlos Rodon, LHP | N.C. State
Owner of perhaps the best amateur's slider in recent memory, Rodon is a power lefty with present stuff and a strong track record of missing bats (184 strikeouts in 132 innings last spring). He brings ace potential to a draft that lacks much of that kind of impact.

2. Jeff Hoffman, RHP | East Carolina
He popped for scouts in the Cape Cod League this summer, moving up boards with a very sudden velocity spike that jumped him ahead of almost all other college arms, but he has never shown the kind of dominant performance that Rodon has, and has to show he can hold this stuff for a full season.

3. Alex Jackson, C | Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)
He’s more likely to end up in right field than behind the plate, but Jackson has elite bat speed and above-average power potential to all fields.

4. Jacob Gatewood, SS | Clovis (Calif.) HS
Boasting enormous raw power, Gatewood has one of the highest upsides among prep hitters this year, but has to show he's got the hit tool to make the power play and will likely end up at third base in pro ball.

5. Braxton Davidson, OF | T.C. Roberson HS (Asheville, N.C.)
Davidson may have the most offensive upside of any hitter in the class, thanks to a plus hit tool and the ability to drive the ball to all parts of the ballpark.

6. Grant Holmes, RHP | Conway (S.C.) HS
Few pitchers were as impressive as Holmes was this summer, showing off a mid-90s fastball that is complemented with a plus breaking ball and an average change.

7. Brady Aiken, LHP | Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Aiken is the top prep lefty in the class, sitting in the low 90s with an average-to-plus curveball, very good deception from his delivery, and little effort to get to that velocity.

8. Tyler Kolek, RHP | Shepherd (Texas) HS
Kolek doesn’t offer much in terms of projection and some scouts worry about his already massive 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame, but a fastball that will touch triple-digits and a curve that will flash plus also has some scouts salivating.

9. Justus Sheffield, LHP | Tullahoma (Tenn.) HS
The younger brother of Vanderbilt freshman and former Red Sox draft pick Jordan Sheffield, Justus is a good athlete who brings low-90s velocity from a strong 6-foot frame and flashes three off-speed pitches with promise.

10. Sean Newcomb, RHP | Hartford
A fastball that will touch 97 mph along with a plus slider and average change could see Newcomb shoot up draft boards, though he will face inferior competition all spring, which will make it hard for scouts to get a great read on him.

11. Max Pentecost, C | Kennesaw State
It’s a weak catching crop this year, but with above-average power and improving receiving skills Pentecost is not just a "best of a bad group" option.

12. Nick Gordon, SS/RHP | Olympia HS (Orlando)
Son of Tom Gordon and half-brother of current Dodger infielder Dee, Nick is a two-way prospect who plays a solid shortstop with good bat speed but little power, and also can sit in the low 90s as a potential power relief prospect who probably lacks the height to stay a starter in pro ball.

13. Alex Verdugo, OF/LHP | Sahuaro HS (Tucson, Ariz.)
Another two-way prospect, Verdugo has outstanding feel for hitting with a quick, direct left-handed stroke and above-average running speed, but is also up to 92 already off the mound from the left side and could go either way at this point.

14. Derek Fisher, OF | Virginia
Fisher possesses above-average to plus offensive tools across the board, though consistency has been an issue over his first two years in Charlottesville.

15. Trea Turner, SS | N.C. State
Turner has elite speed and should be able to stick at shortstop, but there might not be much offensive upside.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Deeg on October 24, 2013, 06:10:04 pm
Law, as usual, is out where the buses don't run on Turner.  Wouldn't be shocked if the Cubs picked him at 4.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on October 24, 2013, 09:04:40 pm
Law would seem to be waaaaaay too low on Turner, IMO, which isn't worth much here.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on October 24, 2013, 09:05:53 pm
Or what Deeg said.

Frankly, at this point, with lot of baseball left to play before the draft, I'm hoping Turner is the Cubs' pick.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: davep on October 25, 2013, 09:42:39 am
Law seems to like to go against the common wisdom on a few guys every year.  On the few times he turns out to be right, he can loudly say I told you so, and the rest of the time, most people will forget what he said.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: Reb on October 25, 2013, 09:47:00 pm

Frankly, at this point, with lot of baseball left to play before the draft, I'm hoping Turner is the Cubs' pick.

BA came out with a 2014 list just a week ago (see below) and they have Turner much higher than Law does--at #4. 

With Castro, Baez, and Alcantara on board, Cubs seem in good shape up the middle infield but Turner is pretty intriguing as a potential leadoff guy with speed.  Well, a whole amateur season to play before next year's draft of course so guys will move up and down.  My recollection is that Gray, for example, wasn't a top 15 projection before the season a year ago.

BA's top 15:

1. Carlos Rodon, lhp, N.C. State: Could have ranked No. 1 in previous two draft classes with a 93-95 mph fastball and premium slider.

2. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, East Carolina: His stuff isn’t far off from Rodon’s, but he hasn’t performed to a comparable level (6.8 K/9 in two seasons).

3. Tyler Kolek, rhp, Shepherd (Texas) HS: Six-foot-6, 250-pounder has touched 99 mph and fits the Texas fireballer description.

4. Trea Turner, ss, North Carolina State: Ankle issue hampered him in 2013, but he offers bat speed, athleticism and top-of-the-scale speed when healthy.

5. Jacob Gatewood, ss/3b, Clovis (Calif.) HS: Long, lean and toolsy athlete with a plus arm and arguably the best power potential in the class.

6. Alex Jackson, c/of, Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego: Pairs plus power and arm strength with athleticism and a chance to stay behind the plate.

7. Tyler Beede, rhp, Vanderbilt: Unsigned 2011 first-round pick has three above-average or better pitches, but command has become an issue for him.

8. Touki Toussaint, rhp, Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian HS: Like Beede, Toussaint shows premium stuff (mid-90s fastball, curve) but struggles to throw strikes at times.

9. Brady Aiken, lhp, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego: Projectable lefty with an ideal pitcher’s body has a chance for three plus offerings with command.

10. Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State: Smallish, athletic college ace has excellent life on a low-90s fastball and plus changeup.

11. Nick Gordon, ss/rhp, Olympia HS, Orlando, Fla.: The son of former big leaguer Tom and brother of Dodgers infielder Dee has a chance to stick at short with a plus arm, good actions and a solid lefthanded swing.

12. Bradley Zimmer, of, San Francisco: The rare college bat with projection as well as strong present tools; scouts are divided on his power potential.

13. Michael Gettys, of/rhp, Gainesville (Ga.) HS: Plus speed and power and one of best arms in the class, but he struggled to hit this summer.

14. Luis Ortiz, rhp, Sanger (Calif.) HS: Strong-bodied power pitcher with an easy delivery was MVP of 18U World Cup with fastball up to 95 mph and a plus slider

15. Mac Marshall, lhp, Parkview HS, LiLburn, Ga.: Athletic lefthander with a low-90s fastball that touches 94 mph, a plus changeup and emerging curveball.
Title: Re: 2013 Draft
Post by: ticohans on October 26, 2013, 11:55:59 am
For all our MI strength, my impression is that Turner's defense would without question push the incumbent off the position.