As we've detailed several times, Stanford righthander Mark Appel turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates after they drafted him eighth overall last year. Though he has less leverage now because he's in his final year of college eligibility and it's hard to fathom that he'd hold out again and re-enter the 2014 draft, he's putting himself in position to get more than $3.8 million this summer.
Appel, who entered the year as Baseball America's top-rated prospect for the 2013 draft Premium, struck out a career-high 15 in seven innings while taking a tough 3-2 loss against Nevada-Las Vegas on Friday night. His stuff is as good as ever, and he's dominating like scouts always have thought he should. He's now 2-2, 1.20 with a 43-6 K-BB ratio and .160 opponent average in 30 innings.
Appel will be attractive to a team that wants a college pitcher who can arrive in a hurry—that's just about any club—and also to anyone looking to spread their bonus pool money around. Because of his reduced leverage, it's unlikely that he'll command full pick value at the top of the draft. Could the Astros wind up drafting him No. 1 overall, just a year later than expected? We have three months to find out.
Well sure. There's a precedent for the Cubs taking big, hard-throwing, strike throwers named Mark from California schools with the #2 pick. Shouldn't be an ounce of pressure on him if he's the pick....
Guessing you're pulling for Manaea, or do do you have a favorite in the early going?
Clint Frazier, a 6’-1”, 190-pound right-hander blessed with some of the best bat speed you will ever see, ignited the crowd before the game, hitting 23 home runs in batting practice. He also threw a strike from mid-center field, showing off his canon arm that has been clocked at 98 mph from the outfield.
He popped out to Meadows in his first at-bat and struck out in his second at-bat on a filthy change-up from Grayson starter Chris Erwin, a left-hander. In his third at-bat, with the game tied at 2-2 with two on and two out, he hit the first pitch he saw really far. It cleared the trees in left field and one scout called it the farthest ball he has ever seen a high school player hit … ever. To say the crowd went nuts is an understatement.
In the top of the sixth, Frazier came up for his fourth at-bat with his team leading 8-4. Korey Anderson, another left-hander, got two quick strikes on him. He then launched an 0-2 curveball over the left field fence for his second home run of the game and, once again, sent the crowd filled with nearly 100 scouts, GM’s and countless fans into a tizzy.
...
Clint Frazier finished 2-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI and is now hitting .600 (15-for-25) with six home runs and 18 RBI over seven games. He generates tremendous power from his strong wrists and the before mentioned bat speed. Along with his plus arm, he also has plus speed and is aggressive in every aspect of the game. He’s an electric player who you would be hard pressed to find another player who enjoys the game more.
Meadows, a 6’-4”, left-hander who also has tremendous power, a plus arm and plus speed, finished the game 0-for-1 with a walk and hit-by-pitch. He didn’t get much to hit and by no means “slipped” in anyone’s eyes as far as draft stock goes. On the season, he is hitting .471 (8-for-17) with one home run and six RBI.
I'm just glad we'll be able to pick one of the two.
The weird thing to me is that I know Meadows is supposedly the scouts' favorite, but every time I read a write up of Frazier's tools, the kid sounds otherworldly. Tremendous power due to plus bat speed and very strong wrists. 98 mph arm. Plus speed. Healthy aggression and a burning passion for the game. How does one scout better than that? Is it just a size thing, where Meadows has a few inches on Frazier?
Every arm is a risk, and could fry at any time. But if you aren't wasting years of arm-failure risk in the minors, but get big-league service quickly, it increases the odds that you'll get a productive return on the investment before his arm goes bad. And maybe you'll get lucky and he'll be one who stays healthy for a lot of years, including some championships?
Baez is listed at 6-0 or 6-1 and his power seems to be decent. Frazier's looked okay in those videos too.
One wonderful pick can make a draft. But it would be nice to have money to sign excellent 2nd, 3rd etc picks as well. Will be interesting to see if Houston insists on holding to slot/underslot again. And to see whether the Cubs go superslot again.
Using last year's numbers, picks 1-4 slot at $7.2/$6.2/$5.2/$4.2.
The Cubs total slot should be about $10, plus the 15% allowed overage.
The Cubs could target a guy, and give him a high number that could be used to deter Houston. Getting up up $8 is very doable, and might be worth it if that's what it takes to get him away from Houston.
Law strikes me as someone who wants to be seen as thinking outside the box or going against conventional wisdom. Again I go back to his certainty that Vogelbach wasn't near ready for a promotion late last year. I'd be floored if any other draft "expert" had Frazier anywhere near that low.
I have to admit, there are times I think Keith Law is a dumb person's idea of a smart person.
Kevin (Florida)
You aren't all in on the Clint Frazier bandwagon? Could he really fall to the Red Sox at 7th?
Klaw (12:13 PM)
I have him in the top ten - that's pretty "all in" for me. He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.
He just doesn't have the upside of Meadows - Frazier is shorter, smaller, and absolutely has to play a corner.
....Of course, with a position player, you have to hit and the athletic-type busts are guys who, as it turns out, just don't hit. Hard to project down the road whether a guy who can now hit will actually hit in the future against real competition. ...
Baseball America has Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea ranked as the No. 2 prospect for this June’s major league draft, but until Friday night he never had pitched a nine-inning complete game.
Manaea locked horns with Gophers lefty Tom Windle in a tense pitcher’s duel at the Metrodome, with Twins scouting director Deron Johnson and a throng of other scouts behind the plate.
The 2-1 Indiana State victory ended with a controversial call, as the Gophers loaded the bases and appeared to score the tying run when Manaea’s pitch bounced away from catcher Mike Fitzgerald.
Kurt Schlangen tried scoring from third base, but Manaea covered the plate, and umpire John Priester ruled that Manaea got the tag down in time for the final out.
The Gophers thought Schlangen was clearly safe and were furious as they left the field. Manaea was so excited, he rolled his right ankle jumping in celebration. He limped toward the team bus with ice wrapped around the ankle.
“I was jacked up, so it was all in good fun, I guess,” Manaea said. “Hopefully it’ll be better tomorrow.”
Windle followed last week’s no-hitter against Western Illinois with another complete game, allowing four hits with one strikeout. Manaea allowed six hits and had 10 strikeouts.
Scouts had Windle’s fastball clocked at 89-92 miles per hour, while Manaea’s fastball sat between 92-94 mph.
“It felt good to throw well,” Windle said. “But to come up that close on kind of a controversial call is kind of hard to sit on.”
If Bryant projects at corner OF, ditto for Frazier. And Bryant is homering and walking at the college level. Of course, it's a scouting decision and probably is best left to the scouts who eyeball these guys over many games.
I think Gray belongs in the conversation, but I don't know how anyone could know who the Cubs might take three months out. Did McLeod and company already narrow their choices and announce them to others in the organization who then leaked the info? I doubt it.
WISM (NYC): Aaron, going to throw you with a non-Vandy question here. Kris Bryant moved from 3rd to 1st last year, but seemed like a guy who could stick at the hot corner in MiLB ball.
Aaron Fitt: I don't think Bryant or D.J. Peterson will stick at third base in pro ball. Rich Hill sees Bryant as a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder or first baseman; I kinda like the Jayson Werth comp for him.
Carlos (San Diego, CA): Who are your top 5 college picks for this year's draft? Kris Bryant and Jonathan Gray make the cut right?
Aaron Fitt: If the draft were today, I'd probably go with those two along with Appel, Manaea and Colin Moran. Philip Ervin, Braden Shipley and D.J. Peterson have to be in that discussion too. Stock falling: Stanek, Jonathon Crawford, Austin Wilson.
How realistic are Mike Trout comparisons for Clint Frazier? Do you think he has a legitimate chance of going No. 1 overall in the upcoming draft?
Chris Kurtz
Rocklin, Calif.
An outfielder from Loganville (Ga.) HS, Frazier may have moved ahead of crosstown rival Austin Meadows of Grayson HS as the top high school prospect in this year's draft. But any Trout comparisons are a bit much and he probably won't be the top choice in the 2013 draft.
However, neither of those statements should be construed as a knock on Frazier, who delivered two homers when he matched up against Meadows last week. He looks like a future star.
Based on his major and minor league performance to date, Trout could be a once-in-a-generation type of talent. He's a 6-foot-1, 220-pounder with top-of-the-line speed and hitting skills, not to mention at least above-average power and center-field ability. While Frazier is more highly regarded than Trout was at the same point in his career, Frazier doesn't have the same tools. He's a 5-foot-11, 185-pounder who's more of a plus hitter and projects as a future plus runner who eventually may move to right field. That still makes Frazier a very talented player, even if he pales somewhat in comparison to someone who batted .326/.399/.564 with 49 steals as a 20-year-old rookie last year.
As good as Frazier is, he'd be an atypical No. 1 overall pick. In the 48 previous drafts, only three righthanded-hitting prep outfielders have gone No. 1: Jeff Burroughs (1969, Senators). Shawn Abner (1984, Mets) and Delmon Young (2003, Devil Rays). Abner had a similar profile to Frazier and wound up as one of the biggest No. 1 choice busts in draft history. I believe Frazier is in the Astros' mix for the top selection in June, but at this point I expect Houston to opt for a college pitcher.
ERA under 3, better than 1K/IP and holding hitters to a .230 average with two promotions in his rookie year doesn't satisfy you?
Harry (Boston, MA): Hey, Jim. Is Gerrit Cole a fair comp for up-and-coming Jon Gray, or is that too lofty?
Jim Callis: Too lofty. I like Gray a lot and I think he's a top-10 draft pick right now, but Cole showed a better and deeper repertoire over a longer period of time. That said, the comparison isn't crazy, which says a lot about Gray.
tim815 (Illinois): Do I throw a hissyfit if the Cubs think Kris Bryant can play 3B or LF well enough to get picked second?
Jim Callis: I wouldn't get angry but that pick would surprise me some. I think the Cubs are going to take a college pitcher. I'd also take Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier over Bryant.
Jeff (windy city): Hey Jim If you are sitting in cubs spot with the number 2 overall pick, who do you take? Still to early to tell?
Jim Callis: Appel or Manaea.
Sounds like he's moved past Manea at this point.
I've yet to see Appel live, but right now Gray is #1 on my wishlist. He is a pitcher with phenomenal stuff, not a guy with great stuff who pitches. His command and control are impeccable.
But the only Gray thing I read gave me the impression he was a competitive, highly motivated guy
In that way, he reminds me of Prior.
The only reason I take Appel over Gray is that he's been consistently great for far longer
I'd suggest watching Gray pitch before reaching a final decision.
Last nugget from scouting contact: "I know they want a college pitcher at #2 but they could get the best position player if Appel goes #1.
The most obvious "so what" would be that most of the small market teams would go broke.
Why have revenue sharing or broadcast and gate revenue splits at all? Just let each team keep it's own revenue.
Why have revenue sharing or broadcast and gate revenue splits at all? Just let each team keep it's own revenue.
Competitiveness. But they need to redefine how teams qualify for revenue sharing, and then make sure they actually spend the money on baseball operations instead of just putting it in their pockets. The St. Louis Cardinals do not need revenue sharing to make them competitive, and the Marlins' owner doesn't deserve a nickel.Add the Minnesota Twins owners to that list. A couple years ago they used the revenue sharing money to pay bonuses to management.
Anyone have ESPN Insider? Chris Crawford has a draft update:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9095330/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-keeps-dominating-stanford-mark-appel-no-1-prospect-mlb-draft
Add the Minnesota Twins owners to that list. A couple years ago they used the revenue sharing money to pay bonuses to management.
Amazed at the fall Stanek has undergone. And, now, 125 pitches. It wouldn't surprise me if something was already wrong with his arm considering all the trouble he's been having.
Ryne Stanek - While Stanek hasn't enjoyed the best of starts to the 2013 season, Arkansas' pitching staff has been rock solid this year, and Stanek was very sharp against South Carolina on Saturday. Frankie Piliere was in attendance at this game and shared his thoughts in the PG MLB Draft Blog. I'm not going to add too much more to what Frankie said, since he painted the picture perfectly, but I will reinforce just how impressive he looked this weekend. The fastball was humming, the slider was sharp in the mid- to late-innings and he really seemed in tune in his dominant CG performance.
Jonathan Gray - This was my first look at Gray, a big-bodied RHP with velocity to match his size. The TV broadcast had his fastball at 96-98, which isn't crazy considering reports indicate he's topped triple digits this spring. His breaking ball is an equally nasty pitch, thrown in the mid- to upper-80s with really sharp two-plane break away from RH batters. The velocity suggests it's a slider, but it looks to be thrown more like a curve. Whatever it is, it's nasty, and the hitters also had no chance catching up to his fastball. He attacked hitters with both pitches and really pounded the strike zone to go nine innings (in a 12 inning game). He maintained his velocity deep into the game, and he also mixed in a really nice changeup, which was just icing on the cake. That pitch showed really good fading/sinking action late and down in the zone, with a great speed differential to his fastball. There is some effort to his delivery, but I walked away very impressed. The only thing that came to mind is where he fell in the draft. With his stuff there's no reason to think he won't be in the Astros' discussion for the first overall pick, however his body type is somewhat unlike what you expect from a 1/1. You usually think of guys like Appel, Manaea and even Stanek with tall, lanky yet strong, projectable and well proportioned builds. Gray isn't out of shape by any means, but he's not in the same conversation when it comes to body type.
..."(Appel) certainly wasn't as good as he was against Fresno State or Texas, but that's a tough standard to live up to" a National League scout said. "The velocity is there, the command is so much better than last year and with respect to [Gray], he's the best player in the class and it isn't even close."
....
Not to be dim, but the "he" that's the best player and it't not close, "he" is Appel, and it's not close? Or "he" is Gray, and it's not close?
I'm assuming he meant Appel, right?
Not to be dim, but the "he" that's the best player and it't not close, "he" is Appel, and it's not close? Or "he" is Gray, and it's not close?
I'm assuming he meant Appel, right?
If Appel wasn’t the right choice with the sixth overall pick, why would he make sense at No. 2 a year later?
“Well, it’s a different draft. It’s certainly a different year,” McLeod said. “The way our board lined up last year – I said it (at the time) – we simply liked Albert Almora more than we liked Mark Appel.
“That’s no slight to Mark Appel. (Like I said), you take the position player at the top. For us, we got a kid we thought was going to be a premium centerfielder and hit in the middle of the order. Those guys are hard to find.
“Mark certainly (is) someone (who’s) proven to be a first-round guy. He’s gone out and done well so far this year. We’ve spent a lot of time with him and we will continue to.”
The Cubs will have a representative at every start for each of the college pitchers they’re considering with the No. 2 pick.
Epstein recently ducked out of camp to watch Gray in Norman, Okla., as part of the blanket coverage. Special assistant Tim Wilken, amateur scouting director Jaron Madison and national crosscheckers Sam Hughes, Matt Dorey and Ron Tostenson will all get multiple looks at those pitchers.
Earlier this month, general manager Jed Hoyer was part of the group that went over to Surprise Stadium for a college tournament that included Arkansas (Ryne Stanek) and Gonzaga (Marco Gonzales). When the Cubs visit the Atlanta Braves during Final Four weekend, two dynamic high school outfielders (Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier) will be in the area.
My guess is that they're leaning towards taking a starter. Need has to factor in.
Almost a decade ago, senior vice president of scouting and player development Jason McLeod reunited with Theo Epstein in the Boston Red Sox front office and their analysis still influences their thinking at Clark and Addison.
“We had crunched a lot of NCAA data on the performance side of things and then we just started looking at it on the draft side,” McLeod recalled. “What is the draft telling us over the years? Where is the talent coming from? What areas? What positions? There are just so many variables with pitching, injuries, some of the innings these guys have to throw. Everyone would love to hit on a Justin Verlander at No. 2 overall.
“If we go that route, hopefully our guy turns into that kind of guy. But if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”
They already have so many legitimate CF prospects (Almora, Jackson, Ha, Szczur, Martin) that I don't consider Meadows' ability to stay there a significant plus. If Frazier or Bryant looked like a better offensive player than Meadows, they should take him over Meadows. Whether they'll take a pitcher or a position player is obviously undecided at the moment. My current preference would be Gray or Appel in round one and the best available catching prospect in round two, with at least one more catcher in rounds 3-7.
Don't see them taking a corner OF bat, Frazier or Bryant, over Appel or Gray.
The most telling sentence in that article is "you take the position player at the top."
So pitching comes from everywhere.
[/color][/color]Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”.....“If you look at the history of the draft, the position players up high are more of a sure bet[/color] if you get the good ones,” McLeod said. “Unfortunately, the college class isn’t as strong as in some years. There are a couple of guys that have stepped up so far this year that certainly are putting themselves on a map as considerations up there. But not as strong as a typical year.
Jes, I can readily accept that Theo's history has been to be reluctant to use top draft picks on starting pitchers. But was the Red Sox organization under his leadership ever as bereft of starting pitching prospects as is the current Cubs organization?
if you look back at the draft, you’ll also see a lot of guys that went 1, 2, 3 that were pitchers and kind of just had mediocre careers. So pitching comes from everywhere. Typically, (with) your position players, the star guys come at the top of the draft.”
Of course as tico noted, Appel and Gray, for as special as they seem, are no Prior or Strasburg, either.
I think one key with regards to Appel is that he shouldn't be very far away. I think the closer they get to the beginning of their "window" the more valuable an upper tier pitcher who can contribute quickly becomes. Assuming talent is at least equal in the scouts eyes, of course. That's part of the reason I'm on the Appel/Gray bandwagon if they grade out properly.
I think a lot of the "principles" are applicable in the all-else-being-equal scenarios. But things are rarely equal. Obviously if you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally certain, you take the player, because his talent will last. Tie, and perhaps anything close to a tie, goes to player. Maybe it doesn't even need to be very close. But will it be even remotely close to a tie this draft? As reb said, the pool of players doesn't sound like a lot of Griffey/Arod types.
... it is possible that they think between Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Almora, and Soler, that perhaps they already have a pretty solid stock of potential star, impact, middle-of-the-order players.
There are some baseball people who believe strongly in the importance of an "ace" pitcher to front-line a staff.
I'm not sure that Theo is lumping college position players with HS position players in terms of draft history. They're not the same....
Gray would be the Cubs #2 right now, in my opinion.
while Appel could be in the rotation on opening day in 2014.
Yes
I haven’t seen him pitch live but having scouted pitching for colleges and a couple MLB teams I have to say that the video posted above is one of the most intriguing mix of power and deception I have seen in a long time.
You have to find a position player to knock him off the throne. Maybe not the slider of Strausburg in college but close. I think there are things here that if you had a draft with him and Strausburg you might actually think to take Gray. Size and frame is better; mechanics are not so screwed up timing wise as Strausburg’s; and I think you can make the arguement that he has a chance of having a better fastball when you consider movement.
....If you look at the major league pitching leaders in 2012, of the 10 pitchers with the highest WAR for pitchers you have the following list, to which I have added how the player was acquired, and if by draft, then by the round when they were drafted:
1. Verlander (DET) 7.4 1st round -- 2nd pick overall
2. Price (TBR) 6.4 1st round 1st pick
3. Kershaw (LAD) 6.3 1st round -- 7th pick overall
4. Harrison (TEX) 6.2 Trade -- 3rd round
5. Cueto (CIN) 5.8 Dominican signing
Sale (CHW) 5.8 1st round -- 13th pick overall
7. Dickey (NYM) 5.5 FA -- 1st round 18th pick overall
8. Kuroda (NYY) 5.2 Trade -- FA from Japan
9. Peavy (CHW) 5.0 Trade -- 15th round
10. Hernandez (SEA)4.6 Venezualan FA
And the same for 2011:
WAR for Pitchers
1. Halladay (PHI) 8.5 Trade 1st round -- 17th pick overall
2. Verlander (DET) 8.3 1st round -- 2nd pick overall
Lee (PHI) 8.3 FA -- 4th round
4. Sabathia (NYY) 7.0 FA -- 1st round, 20th pick overall
5. Weaver (LAA) 6.7 1st round -- 12th pick overall
6. Kershaw (LAD) 6.3 1st round -- 7th pick overall
7. Romero (TOR) 6.2 1st round -- 6th pick overall
Hamels (PHI) 6.2 1st round -- 17th pick overall
9. Beckett (BOS) 5.5 Trade -- 1st round 2nd pick
10. Fister (2TM) 5.0 Trade -- 7th round
You know, after looking at the list, I know what the Theocracy has said, and I am sure that they sat down and carefully looked at things a decade or so ago when they came up with their approach... but I am starting to wonder if perhaps more careful use of young pitchers might have changed things more than a little, or perhaps simply better scouting.
On those two lists there are 23 pitcher positions on the lists (with a couple of pitchers appearing twice, but I am counting each position on the list separately), you have 3 of them who were foreign FA signings,leaving 20 positions on the lists, and of the 20, 23 of them, 65%, were initially 1st round draft picks, with 7 of the 20 being picked in one of the 1st 7 slots the year they were drafted.
From that, I don't know that you can really any longer argue that top pitchers may be as likely found at lower levels of the draft as they once were.
Appel is looking like a better draft pick to me than he was before I actually looked at who the top pitchers were each of the last two years and where they came from.
One more thing. To elaborate on what I said earlier, Gray threw some terrific changes tonight. Some right down the middle, some that disappeared like Jason Bere's old Fosh pitches. Gray said in an interview that his changeup is nasty and he wasn't kidding. He just doesn't need it in college. He seemed to be experimenting by throwing a bunch of them in the early innings tonight.
If you get a chance to watch Strasburg pitch this season, focus on his change-up.
“I’ve been in college baseball for 21 years and I haven’t seen a guy just, outing after outing, dominate like he has,” OU coach Sunny Golloway said. “I keep telling myself he’s not a professional, he’s an amateur pitcher and he’s gonna have some bumps in the road. Our job is to coach him up when he does. But he hasn’t had many bumps yet. He will, but he’s tough and he’ll be able to overcome it.”
Spoke with someone at Appel's outing tonight. The @StanfordBSB RHP was 97 throughout the game w/ plus SL and CH
Overall:
Appel- 0.96 ERA, 47 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 64 K .161 BAA
Gray- 1.34 ERA, 53-2/3 IP, 27 H, 9 BB, 63 K .152 BAA
My post was to provide additional fodder to P2's.
If that is the case, I would expect the Cubs to select the cheapest of the two pitchers, which would probably be Gray. There is still a lot of time before the draft, but at this point there doesn't seem to be a substantial difference between the two, so they might as well save some money to be used as overslot in later rounds.
Penny wise, pound foolish. Pick the guy based on your scouting.
it's the norm, not the exception, for a drafted pitching star to have been drafted first round and often high first. And even on that list, their are few non-first rounders and they often aren't in the same class as the super-aces.
Appel and Gray 1-2 is fine, but history is what it is. 50-50 for TJ or worse, no matter what their mechanics look like now. That's why the bias towards hitters is, in general terms, a sign that this administration really gets it.
I think this whole situation is a reminder of how, even though the team was struggling vigorously to lose less than 100 games, it is a nice perk to get a really high pick like this. If we were picking 4th or 5th, we'd still get a really good prospect. But you're not in quite so strong a "win-win-win" win-big situation.
Penny wise, pound foolish. Pick the guy based on your scouting.
I haven't paid for my espn insider in like 5 years. I've wondered many times what the deal was. Finally got an email the other day saying payment was due because my year was up. Since I havent had the bank account used on file there in many years, I can't help but wonder if someone else has been paying for my insider.
I think they just have poor record keeping there, because I haven't paid in years either. I got a "free trial" about 10 years ago. After the trial ran out, I paid for the first year, then never again. The credit card I used to get my subscription was cancelled years ago. But I still get Insider, and I even get ESPN Magazine for free. I never read it and would like to cancel it because it goes straight to the trash every month...but I don't want to risk losing my free insider.
I touched upon Jonathan Gray last week, and had the good fortune to watch last weekend's start as well. This time it was against Kansas, and the guy is just filthy. He went the full 9 innings, gave up 2 hits, one was a soft flare to RF, the other was on an infield single to the SS that could have been an out if played better (allowing the runner to go from first to third on the play, which should never happen). That runner scored on a DP ball to the next hitter.
He has great fastball velocity (mid to upper 90s) and command, and his mid-80s slider is probably his best pitch. It's really hard to identify out of the hand and breaks late, hard and away from RH batters. His low-80s changeup is also a very nice pitch that he uses perfectly to neutralize LH hitters. He has great temp on the mound, keeps his composure and really is the completely package you look for in a future staff ace.
I was actually talking to Kendall Rogers about this earlier today, but it is somewhat surprisingly that he hasn't gotten more pub early this season. He is a legitimate factor for the Astros and the No. 1 overall pick. While Appel has been dominant again this year and Manaea also offers the projected total package of a staff ace, Jonathan Gray is doing it week after week, and the weather has been rather cool this spring.
Frank (Chicago): Between Clint Frazier and Javier Baez, who has better bat speed and overall plate discipline?
Jim Callis: They have similar bat speed, which is to say a ton of it. Frazier hasn’t faced pro pitching, so plate discipline is a tough call, but Baez is so aggressive at the plate that I’d expect Frazier is ahead of him in that regard.
@Jaypers413 (IL): Could you see the Cubs taking RHP Jon Gray if the Astros pop Appel at 1-1?
Jim Callis: I could. If the draft were today, I’d expect Appel and Gray to go 1-2 or 2-1.
Luke (Indiana): If the draft was tomorrow, who are your top three picks, in order?
Jim Callis: Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, Georgia high school OF Austin Meadows. I actually wrote my column for our last magazine issue on who I’d take with each of the first 10 picks, and that will post with our updated Draft Top 50 Prospects tomorrow. I wrote that column about 10 days ago, and I’ve shuffled my choices since then.
Peter (Brooklyn): Seems like Sean Manaea's stock has fallen in a lot of mock drafts. Do you chalk up his less than totally dominant start, both production and stuff-wise, to the weather? Something else?
Jim Callis: I think he has fallen a little bit, though I still think he’d go in the top 5-10 picks if the draft were today. The weather up here–I live outside of Chicago–has been bitterly cold for most of the year, but I think the inconsistency of his secondary pitches and his command. His numbers aren’t bad at all (1.14 ERA, 46-13 K-BB in 39 IP) but he hasn’t shown scouts everything they’ve hoped for.
Joel (KCK): Is there any chance that Jonathan Gray has put himself on Houston's short list for the #1 pick?
Jim Callis: Not sure how short that list is yet, but yes, Gray is definitely a candidate.
Jordan (Chicago): Who do you think the Cubs will grab at No. 2? Also have you heard anything of the progress of Barret Loux and his upside? Seems kind of quiet regarding the No. 6 pick in the draft...
Jim Callis: Almost assuredly a college pitcher at No. 2, Appel or Gray. Loux is more of a high-floor than a high-ceiling guy. He can pitch but his stuff is average, so he’s probably a No. 4 starter at best.
From talking to some of the double-digits of scouting directors that were in Cary for the NHSI tournament, it’s looking like the top of the draft is starting to reach consensus. Right now, I’ve got the top group of talent being a top 5, containing Stanford righty Mark Appel, Oklahoma righty Jonathan Gray, Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea, Georgia prep outfielder Clint Frazier and San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
Some will be surprised to hear Frazier’s fellow Atlanta-area prep outfielder Meadows not in that group. I go into detail on this topic on this week’s podcast and in two NHSI wrapup pieces. The short version is that Meadows is slowly going from a toolsy center fielder with great tools to a guy that might end up a left fielder and isn’t hitting quite as much as his tools would suggest, while also by no means performing terribly. The vagueness of that is intentional as I could absolutely see Meadows still going in the top 5 and I’m sure there’s a couple teams that still have him there.
All that said, the point of the rankings is to jive my evaluations (where applicable) with those of the industry to reflect larger trends and the industry as a whole has Meadows a notch behind Frazier as a prospect right now, saying nothing of individual teams. Right now, it sounds like Appel is the consensus top prospect and Gray seems to be the most common choice for second best but Manaea, Bryant and Frazier all have cases to be made for the #2 spot.
There’s a sense that the Cubs will come away with one of the frontline college pitchers – Appel, Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray or Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea. Hoyer confirmed that the Cubs feel there are multiple pitchers with high enough ceilings to justify the No. 2 slot.
....
“We’ve been really open about the fact that we need a lot more pitching in the organization, whether that comes at the second pick or not,” Hoyer said Saturday at Turner Field. “We’re really very open to taking a hitter at No. 2. But I think it’s a safe bet we’re going to pound away at pitching throughout the draft, like we did last year.”
....
During the upcoming 10-game homestand at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will run their midpoint meetings in Chicago and set the agenda for the rest of the spring scouting season. They are looking at around six possible players for their top pick and will have to figure out how to divide their $10.6 million bonus pool.
“We’ll really sit down at that point and make sure that our group (for) No. 2 is inclusive,” Hoyer said. “(We’ll) make sure there’s no one else we should be considering. And then at that point, we’ll really focus on getting all the information we need on those guys.”
“We’ve been really open about the fact that we need a lot more pitching in the organization, whether that comes at the second pick or not,” Hoyer said Saturday at Turner Field. “We’re really very open to taking a hitter at No. 2. But I think it’s a safe bet we’re going to pound away at pitching throughout the draft, like we did last year.”
Whether or not the Astros' spread-it-around approach from last year makes sense for the Cubs this year will depend on who the Astros select, the Cubs' assigned value for the five remaining top six candidates and their bonus demands. Obviously, if the remaining candidates are all rated equally, they should draft the cheapest one. But that won't happen, and both the assigned values and the expected asking prices are estimates. It's a crap shoot either way.
I think the spread it around approach doesn't jive with Theo's philosophy of finding impact talent. Historically the chance of finding true impact talent dwindles outside the top end of the draft. In a top heavy draft the chance to add a true top level piece to the puzzle should be too much to pass up. I hope he just takes the best available and doesn't try to outsmart everyone. The last out smart everyone experiment was named Hayden Simpson.
I think the spread it around approach doesn't jive with Theo's philosophy of finding impact talent. Historically the chance of finding true impact talent dwindles outside the top end of the draft. In a top heavy draft the chance to add a true top level piece to the puzzle should be too much to pass up.
Sean Manaea's Sunday outing: 6-5-0-0-0-9
Overall: 0.99 ERA, 45-1/3 IP, 28 H, 13 BB, 55 K
With those numbers it's easy to see why his stock has plummeted...
Sean Manaea, the Indiana State lefty who is a candidate for the first pick overall in the draft, survived a scary weekend. He had to be bumped from a scheduled Friday start because of an injury that was termed a strained hip but bounced back to throw six strong innings Sunday. Manaea had nine strikeouts and no walks in getting the win over Wichita State. The biggest thing was he was right back on the mound, which didn’t give teams long to wonder about his health.
Stanford’s Mark Appel remains the best pitcher in the draft. He blew USC away on Friday night, and is 5-2 with a 1.13 ERA and growing reputation for pounding the strike zone (73 strikes in 108 pitches against USC). He has 71 strikeouts and nine walks in 55 2-3 innings. The Cubs, who pick after the Astros in the June draft, are expected to take one of the two pitchers although they are also carefully scouting Oklahoma University right-hander Jonathan Gray and Georgia high school outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.
I think Manaea has suffered from missing an outing or two due to some bad weather.
The more I talk to scouts, the more I’m told that college righthanders Mark Appel (Stanford) and Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) are establishing themselves as the top two prospects in this draft. A lot can happen in the eight weeks between today and when the draft begins, but talent evaluators say Appel and Gray have separated from the rest of the pack.
Aaron Fitt was on hand for Appel’s Friday start at Southern California, and though Appel didn’t have his best stuff, he still pitched into the ninth inning and earned a 4-2 victory. He’s now 5-2, 1.13 after seven starts, with a 71-9 K-BB ratio and .170 opponent average in 56 innings.
Gray also survived despite being in less than peak form on Friday, when he surrendered a season-high seven hits at Texas. He still managed to get 20 outs while giving up just one unearned run, topping out at 98 mph with his fastball and relying heavily on his slider. Though eight starts, he’s 6-1, 1.19 with a 71-11 K-BB ratio and a .167 opponent average in 60 innings.
I could be wrong but you seem to want a hitter over a pitcher, and you keep bringing up the spread it around approach.
Drafting your own ace also allows for much great financial flexibility if he works out.
... I really don't want to give up Baez et alii for a top guy when I could take a chance on Appel or Gray turning into that. ...
As long as Baez continues to develop and learns how to channel his aggression, I wouldn't even consider dealing him. When Baez is ready, Castro is the guy to move if you're going to move either one of them.
Gray wasn't bad by any stretch. I don't want that to be the impression. He was just off early before settling in. The three other times I saw him pitch he was constantly up 0-1, 0-2, 1-2. Tonight he was often behind 1-0, 2-0. And he threw some pitches that got away and did nothing. It was a shock after viewing his other performances which were machine-like. Tonight he was mortal by his standards, but still plenty good. Only one hard hit ball off him in 8 innings. He threw some pretty wicked sliders in the latter innings as well.
You may have already addressed this, but would you say Appel has the higher floor?
Chris, how "big" and heavy is Gray? Is fitness or body type a concern at all? Zambrano was often weight-challenged, which led to some back issues.
On the other hand, I don't know what Gray was throwing the last two years, but if he was throwing 100 last year I doubt he'd have lasted to round 10 or whatever in the draft.
I don’t quite understand a statement you made regarding Stanford righthander Mark Appel during your last draft chat. You said, “Appel isn’t going to have to take a deep discount” because “If Houston passes on him, the next few teams in line would all love to have him.” I acknowledge that I may not understand what you mean by a deep discount. At the same time, I don’t understand how the likelihood that Appel will go in the top three picks changes the fact that, unlike last year, he doesn’t have more college eligibility remaining. If the Astros or Cubs were to draft him, draw a hard line and offer no more than the $4.8 million that No. 1 overall choice Carlos Correa got last year, does Appel have any other reasonable alternative but to sign?
Levi Portillo
Houston
Appel and Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray have established themselves as the top two prospects in the 2012 draft. While Appel has less leverage than he did a year ago, his talent still gives him plenty of negotiating power. He should get much more than the $3.8 million he turned down from the Pirates after sliding to the No. 8 overall pick a year ago.
Appel’s situation isn’t really analogous to Correa’s. If Correa hadn’t gone No. 1 overall to the Astros, where the assigned pick value was $7.2 million, the perception was that he would have lasted until the Cubs at No. 6 ($3.25 million) or the Padres at No. 7 ($3 million). So it made sense for him to take a discount that still paid him more than he would have gotten otherwise, though I’ve since learned that had Houston taken Byron Buxton, the Twins might have chosen Correa at No. 2.
The best-case scenario for the Astros is a repeat of 2012, when they land a player worth of the No. 1 selection but save enough money to do a lot of damage in later rounds. This year, Houston’s assigned pick value is $7,790,400. If the Astros pass on Appel, he very well could be at the top of the Cubs’ draft board at No. 2, where the value is $6,708,400. The Rockies (No. 3, $5,626,400) and Twins (No. 4, $4,544,400) probably would be thrilled to have Appel and willing to move money around to add to their pick value. So he should clear well north of $4.8 million.
There are two good reasons that a team won’t take a hard line with Appel. First, he’s advised by the Boras Corp. Clubs legitimately fear that draftees, even college seniors, will walk away from a deal that Scott Boras doesn’t like.
Second, Appel could take a hard line with a club. Let’s say the Astros choose him and make him a take-it-or-leave-it $5 million offer. I agree, it would be silly to turn that much money down to re-enter the 2014 draft.
But Appel could decide not to sign until right before the July 13 signing deadline of 5 p.m. ET. Houston couldn’t risk spending the $2,790,400 they saved on his bonus to land other players until he was in the fold. (Update: Actually, as @jeremynygaard reminded me on Twitter, the signing deadline doesn’t apply to Appel, making it even easier for him to hold a team’s bonus pool hostage.) If the Astros spent the savings before Appel signed, they’d risk losing their next two first-round selections, including the possible No. 1 overall choice in 2014.
Ultimately, clubs give up leverage to draftees because they want to sign the best players available. If Houston rates Appel and Gray evenly, then it makes sense to select the guy who will accept a more team-friendly deal. But if the Astros like Appel more than any other 2013 draft prospect, I think they’ll take him and give him a bonus of $6 million or more.
One NL scout summed up like this: "Really good. Power arm rumored to have touch 103.''
Gray doesn't have Appel's command track record but
Gray's getting more and more press. I have this sick feeling the Astros are going to take him.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9184897/oklahoma-jonathan-gray-climbed-mlb-draft-boards-spring-college-baseball
Anthony Acy and Brad Sewall, teammates at now defunct-Natchez Trace Academy, each stole 87 bases during the 1991 season to share the record.
though Mayo still ranks Appel ahead of Gray.
Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray remains on the Rockies' radar with the No. 3 pick in the June draft.
Most still are ranking Appel first. Not me.
More Law on the draft.
Prospect watch: Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray
Oklahoma junior right-handed pitcher Jonathan Gray has made the full transition.
The hype surrounding Gray during the early part of the spring certainly was warranted. After all, the imposing right-handed pitcher touched 100 on the gun during fall workouts, and also reportedly did the same at home earlier this year.
But the story this season for Gray is not simply that he’s a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher who can sit in the upper-90s for an entire game, even in cold elements, it’s the fact he has become a mature, and coincidentally, a much better overall pitcher and prospect.
Having seen Gray a couple of times during his sophomore campaign last season, it’s obvious the tools were there. He had a stocky frame that just screamed durability, and he had that power fastball to go with the plus slider. However, last season, he had a tendency to have a few good innings, then suddenly resort to bad mechanics, causing opposing teams to have huge innings to knock him out of games. Even with those issues, he still managed to tally a very respectable 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 innings, along with 104 strikeouts and 42 walks.
The Jonathan Gray of old is no more. That much has been clear so far this season, as evidenced by the fact he has climbed from No. 58 preseason in our Top 100 prospect rankings, to the likely No. 2 pick in the MLB draft behind Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel.
“You know, he’s the type of guy who can go 97-99 for 120 pitches, then punch you out with an 87-88 slider. That’s pretty special stuff right there,” Baylor coach Steve Smith said about Gray. “They tend to pitch him the way he’s going to pitch at the big league level, and he’s pretty effective going about things that way.”
With Gray and the Sooners down at Baylor a couple of weekends ago, it was the perfect opportunity to see what the new and improved right-handed pitcher was all about.
To begin the game, it seemed like Gray might have a rough night on the mound. Command of his fastball, slider and changeup was spotty, and he was pushing hard to the left during his follow through, causing many of his pitches to sail outside.
Gray attributed the slow start to being amped up, and that made sense because he was nasty as usual once he settled in against the Bears. Gray was consistently 94-99 throughout the game, even touching a couple of 97s in the eighth inning.
The elite right-hander also flashed good secondary stuff. His changeup was 80-82 and just sick when commanded well with that fastball, while his slider was interesting to say the least. He sometimes threw the pitch at 82-84, and others at 85-87, with great tailing action against right-handed hitters.
“You know, sometimes in games, I get a little too amped out and tend not to stay back on the rubber. That happened in the game, but was fine once I settled in,” Gray said. “As for my pitches, the development of the slider has really helped me a lot this year. Sometimes, when I just need a strike I’ll throw that thing 83-84, but when I need to punch someone out, will go 85-87 with it. I really try to mix speeds with that pitch.”
Moving forward, it’s pretty much a slam-dunk Gray is a top-five overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft, barring some late-season collapse or some other occurrence. For the season, Gray has a 1.09 ERA in 74 1/3 innings of work, along with 91 strikeouts and just 13 walks. He’s also limiting opposing teams to a .159 batting average, whereas teams hit .267 last year.
“The big thing for me this year is I’m going out there each week and trust my stuff. As long as I do that, I’m going to be fine,” he said. “I just stay within myself and not try to do too much. As long as my mechanics are there, everything will be all right.”
Transformation complete.
Mike H. (Oakland): Jim, any real concerns with Jonathan's Gray's ability to command pitches for strikes?
Jim Callis: None. His command is much improved this year. He has given up 13 walks in 74 innings while holding opponents to a .159 average, so he’s locating his pitches just fine. And his pitches are more than just fine: a fastball touching triple digits, a wipeout slider and an effective changeup. That’s why he might go No. 1 overall in the draft.
Dennis (Chicago): Who do you think Cubs prefer to draft, who do you think they will draft? Will pitching dominate their draft?
Jim Callis: I’d be surprised if they didn’t take a college pitcher at No. 2, either Appel, Gray or Manaea. They really need arms and will stock up on them in the draft.
Joel (KCK): Jim, if you could draft any six college players regardless of eligibility, who would they be and in what order? Thanks
Jim Callis: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Carlos Rodon, Sean Manaea, Kris Bryant, Colin Moran.
Mike (Maryland): Who does Jonathan Gray remind scouts of? Does any MLB pitcher come to mind for you? Thanks!
Jim Callis: I keep hearing Gerrit Cole comps.
MIAMI — Baseball’s amateur draft is six weeks away, but the pitching-hungry Cubs already have narrowed their focus for the No. 2 overall pick to the top two college pitchers in the draft: Stanford’s Mark Appel and Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray.
Team sources have said for weeks that they expect one of those power pitchers will be the Cubs’ selection — possibly coming down to whichever one isn’t selected by the Houston Astros with the No. 1 pick.
I don't know if anyone has full access to the Sun-Times, but the gist is probably all we need to know.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/19719803-573/cubs-plan-to-use-no-2-pick-on-mark-appel-or-jonathan-gray.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+suntimes%2FbdCV+%28yChicago+Sun-Times+%3A%3A+Chicago+Cubs+%3A%3A%29
The Cubs are scheduled to have at least one representative at every start Appel and Gray will make before the June 6 draft. The Houston Astros are on the clock.
“You go right up until the end,” team president Theo Epstein said recently. “And then we won’t know until literally five minutes before we pick because we pick second. We don’t know what’s going to be available to us.
“But the draft class is rounding into shape where there are a couple elite starting pitchers up on top of the draft and some interesting high school position players. I’d say there’s about half-a-dozen guys who have the potential to go first overall even, so we’ll see what happens.”
You just can't get too disappointed when that happens.
Adam Jude @A_Jude 2h
Stanford RHP Mark Appel, a potential No. 1 pick in MLB draft, sitting 94-96 mph. Has touched 97. At least 10 scouts here.
Erik Elken @Erik_Elken 3h
Mark Appel hitting the fun at 95 and 97 with fastballs, then gets Payne on an 89 mph slider. Have fun with that.
I was wrong about tonight. Appel threw 116, not 120+.
Appel has exceeded 100 pitches in all but his first start (5-1/3 IP).
105, 110, 107, 110, 108, 115, 124, 116
Appel has exceeded 100 pitches in all but his first start (5-1/3 IP).
105, 110, 107, 110, 108, 115, 124, 116
Wow. Maybe he's a throwback who can do that sort of thing for a sustained period. But it seems more likely that a workload like that is pretty risky for such a top prospect.
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 6h
Jason McLeod Sr VP Scouting & Player Development told us on XM 89 that Kris Bryant and Colin Moran are the best two bats in the draft
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 6h
Jason McLeod Sr VP Scouting & Player Development told us on XM 89 that Mark Appel & Jonathan Gray are the two best pitchers in the draft.
Disappointment comes with being a fan of this franchise, JR. It will come for me on June 6 when Gray goes first.
@JonathanMayoB3 If you were guessing today, who would Astros takes? Significance in pre draft work out at Austin Meadows school?
@tmengd And if i had to guess, i would guess Gray
CHICAGO CUBS
Top 10-Rd. Picks: 2, 41, 75, 108, 138, 168, 198, 228, 258 & 288
Bonus Pool: $10,556,500
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison (first year)
While we don’t have a track record for Madison with the Cubs, he was scouting director with the Padres from 2010-2012 where his top picks included Karsten Whitson, Cory Spangenberg and Max Fried. Before that, he was involved with college-heavy drafts with the Padres (2006-2007) and the Cardinals (2008-2009).
With the No. 2 pick—and a focused effort on restocking the club’s minor league pitching depth—this year’s draft class matches up nicely with the Cubs’ needs. They should pick either Stanford righthander Mark Appel or Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray.
CyMature (Western Mass): Who is the better prospect, Appel or Gray?
Is it too soon to predict where they go in the first round?
Thanks, Jim.
Jim Callis: I’ve been saying Appel, because he has a longer track record. But Gray’s stuff is a little more explosive and he’s throwing a ton of strikes too. Might be starting to lean toward Gray slightly. I think they go 1-2 or 2-1, would be stunned otherwise.
Entering the year, Theo had the notion that the farm was really thin on pitchers, but was strong for position guys. I know it's only May, but I wonder if that has changed? Jackson has shown no hint of hitting. Baez makes Jackson and Corey look like contact hitters. Soler hasn't been overmatched in A, but has been struggling. So I wonder if the perceptions have changed?
With Wood and Villanueva both pitching so well, the big-league team doesn't look as needful rotation-wise, either. Whereas castro and Rizzo haven't improved the outlook lineup-wise.
does watching Appel dominate tonight make you feel like they are 1 and 1A?
Appel's done: 7-5-3-2-1-13 , 108 pitchesOr maybe not done.
Baez making Jackson look like a contact hitter doesn't synch up with the facts.
Appel has been here before. The Stanford ace was the potential top pick a year ago, but he ended up sliding to the Pirates at No. 8. Appel opted to return to school for his senior year and has arguably been the most consistent performer in this year's Draft class. After his win against Arizona State on Friday, he's 8-3 with a 1.56 ERA in 11 starts. In 86 1/3 innings, Appel has held opponents to a .195 batting average while allowing just 15 walks and striking out 106.
Why he should be the top pick: "He's just as good as last year, with a bit more edge to him. He has a track record of taking the ball every Friday for the past three years."
Why he shouldn't be the top pick: "Will the Astros be able to sign him this time? There have been times in the past where he's gotten hit more than he should."
Gray might be the only other prospect who has matched Appel, at least in terms of week-by-week performance. He had a no-decision against West Virginia on Friday, so his record stayed put at 8-1. Gray's ERA is 1.20. In 89 2/3 innings, the right-hander has 104 strikeouts against just 16 walks, holding hitters to a .166 batting average.
Why he should be the top pick: "The guy is 6-5, 240 pounds and touches 100 mph. I don't mean to feed you the obvious, but it's one of those circumstances, when you're picking No. 1, you look at the success he's had and the fact he's gotten better at every level he's played, it's almost a no-brainer that he enters the conversation. The conversation almost doesn't have to go more in-depth than that. There's no glaring issue with arm action or delivery. He's a great kid and comes from a great family. There really isn't anything that stands out as caution flags."
Why he shouldn't be the top pick: "If there is an unknown, he hasn't competed in summer baseball, in the Cape or [with] Team USA, as far as his exposure to a higher level of competition. This is the highest level he's thrown at, and the Big 12 isn't the best conference this year."
FWIW ABTY posted on PSD that he talked to a Houston scout that he knows and that they were leaning Bryant/Manea/Frazier with the first pick. Same scout told him last year Correa was the guy. He thinks Appel would be the pick, but Grey/Stanek also have been heavily scouted
@JonathanMayoB3...who do you think the #Cubs are leaning towards with the second overall pick?
..
@baseballfan4225 Thinking college arm, but no guarantees yet
@JonathanMayoB3 how shocked would you be if the Cubs took Frazier or Meadows at #2 instead of an arm?
..
@cincysportsart wouldn't shock me at all
Gray's start Friday will be on ESPNU at 7 central, 5 pacific.Didn't I read that his start was pushed back to Saturday night?
Didn't I read that his start was pushed back to Saturday night?
I don't think so. I haven't heard that and I can't find it anywhere while searching.
A reminder that Gray's start is on ESPNU at 7 central.
and I don't know anything.
This is totally groundless, and I don't know anything. But....
Curt - is that you?I don't understand. I never say anything insulting about YOU!
Do we have any data from summer ball leagues?
I don't understand. I never say anything insulting about YOU!
This is totally groundless, and I don't know anything. But Appel gives me something of a Jackson/Garza feel. Throws fast, and seems to have the stuff that you'd expect would add up to being an above-average pitcher. But nothing really exceptional, and somehow doesn't often pitch to the perceived tools? If you're going for a pitcher with the 2nd pick, a heavily worked pitcher who's probably going to be shot physically within some years, I'd like to get a guy who's going to be really, really good during whatever healthy years you get out of him. I suppose getting 3-5 years of Garza or Jackson level pitching might still qualify as a "success" for a draft pick. But getting a 2- or 3+ rotation guy, or less, that's not going to lift the Cubs to a championship level. I wonder if Appel really has enough "ace" potential to waste a #2 pick on a pitcher?
With Baez looking like he's not going to hit, Brett jackson being bust, and Soler being the only bat in the system that looks to have any chance of being a star hitter, the offense looks like it will continue to struggle.
If one of the hitters looks like the real deal, I wonder if getting a bat might not make a lot more sense.
I can see you don't read your own posts.I have me on Ignore.
I can see you don't read your own posts.
40. Cord Sandberg, of
Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla.
Sandberg’s timing is excellent. He’s an athlete with size and power potential in a draft class where such players are in short supply. Crosscheckers who have seen both players compare Sandberg to Georgia prep outfielder Austin Meadows physically, and many of Sandberg’s tools are on par with those of Meadows, who entered the year as the No. 1 prep player in the country. Sandberg has a quarterback’s build at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and he committed to Mississippi State for football after throwing for 2,674 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. The football commitment could complicate signability for Sandberg, but he’s believed to want to play pro baseball. His father Chuck played at Florida and also played minor league baseball in the Red Sox system, though he also was a prep football coach for more than 20 years. Sandberg’s two-sport history has curtailed his baseball experience, and it shows in his instincts and defense. He profiles best in left field but has a chance to stick in center if he learns better reads and jumps to go with his average speed. Sandberg shows plenty of strength and raw power as well as bat speed, and scouts credit him for making strides with his hitting approach this spring. He’s expected to go out in the second or third round.
If you look at the hesitancy of teams to sign free agents due to the compensation picks I would suggest that the #34 pick is far more than KC would be willing to give up.
Are there any restrictions on when a competitive balance pick can be traded, or could such a trade be made on draft day, or even up until the the pick is on the clock and the available remaining candidates are known to both teams?
According to ArizonaPhil, competitive draft picks are the only draft picks that can be traded, and they can only be traded during the season, which effectively means from opening day until the day of the draft.
His high K percentage is something of a red flag. At this point, I prefer Appel or Gray.
It seems likely to me that Appel and Gray will at worst become solid middle of the order ML starters.
Jes, look up the definition of "likely".
Bryant is head and shoulders above any other bat in the draft, in my eyes.
So you think it's unlikely that Appel and Grey will become at least middle of the rotation ML starters. Fair enough.
My thinking is that the ceilings on Appel and Gray are that they could become aces.
Appel and Gray have both leveled off quite a bit lately. Tired arms, perhaps.
Appel and Gray have both leveled off quite a bit lately. Tired arms, perhaps.
keithlaw @keithlaw 20m
Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea was pulled from today's game due to injury before throwing a pitch.
If Law wasn't there in person, he can't know what he's talking about.
Vitters was quite young too, wasn't he?Yes, very. 17 at draft, didn't turn 18 till August that summer.
Baylor coach Steve Smith on Jonathan Gray: “He can just pitch. He reminds me of (Roger) Clemens because of his three-pitch command."
“He reminds me — because of his three-pitch command and just the command of the game — he honestly reminds me of (Roger) Clemens,” Baylor coach Steve Smith said. “I’m going back a long time. He’s really good, and it’ll be interesting to see which one of those two guys goes first, him or the guy at Stanford (pitcher Mark Appel). I think either way, you’re making a pretty safe pick.”
“The way the game started, I wondered, ‘OK, maybe he’s not a midday guy.’ But he settled down, and it looked like to me both he and the catcher really worked the game well together. He got into a good rhythm, a good flow, and just pitched. You have a guy with three-pitch command with the velocity he’s got, it’s not all about the velocity. If all he had was the velocity, it’d be different, but he’s got good slider command and good change-up command.”
1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston has narrowed its field to five: the top two college pitchers (Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray and Stanford’s Mark Appel), the top two college bats (San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran) and a fifth option, presumed to be Georgia high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
Rumors persist that the Astros might prefer to redistribute bonus-pool money by striking a deal with one of the hitters, and owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow have been spotted scouting Moran. Most industry sources, however, continue to believe the choice will come down to Gray or Appel, whom Houston also considered with the No. 1 pick last year. They’re close enough in talent that asking price could be a deciding factor, though either will command significantly more than the $4.8 million Carlos Correa got as the top choice in 2013.
PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray (Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel).
2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago is looking at the same four college players that Houston is evaluating. The Cubs have an acute need for pitching and have had scouting eyes on Appel and Gray throughout the spring. It’s not clear whom they would prefer between Gray and Appel if the Astros opt for a hitter.
PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel (Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray).
American League scouting director: “I would probably take Appel only because of the track record, but I saw Gray so good this spring. He touched 98 [mph] and the slider was very good. He was dominating. In the fourth inning I realized, ‘I don’t need to be here.’ You could get either one and be thrilled.”
AL executive: “I’d take Appel. Appel has a little more secondary stuff. The only factor is you have to look a little deeper into his makeup. Gray is a warrior. I’m not sure on Appel. Stuff-wise, Appel has a changeup now and two breaking balls that he throws for strikes. That’s more versatile than Gray’s power slider.”
National League executive: “I’d take Appel because of his pitchabilty. I think he’s a better pitch-maker than Gray. Their stuff is very similar. Appel does it better than Gray does it. I’d take [Kris] Bryant over both of them. You don’t get too many chances at a special bat.”
NL executive: “I’d take Gray over Appel. The difference right now is that Appel’s delivery is more refined but Gray is a better athlete. Gray kind of has been a late developer and he still has got to get better with his breaking ball. Appel presently has a better breaking ball, but Gray’s has as good or more bite when it’s on. Gray has a bigger arm velocity-wise. In the end, I’m going with the guy I think will have better stuff and better makeup, and that’s Gray.”
Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic (video): At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, Jimenez is a righthanded hitter with similarities to Royals outfielder Elier Hernandez, who signed with the Royals for $3 million in 2011 and, like Jimenez, also trained with Amaurys Nina. Jimenez, who plays in the International Prospect League, has a strong, projectable body, a quick bat and a swing path that results more in hard line drives than loft power
Watching some of the SEC championship game, they were discussing how offense in college is down since the switch to composite bats. Especially impacted were home run rates.
This article argues that Kris Bryant's power this year is that much more impressive, given the new bats (one guy sited in the article claims that data suggests if he were using the old bats, Bryant would have hit 68 homers this year...hmmmm). I wonder then, too, if those bats contribute to pitchers having better numbers too.
http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/college_baseball/2013/05/kris_bryants_30_hr_season_with_composite_bat_is_epic
Not saying he's brittle, but that is three injuries for Almora already.
The only significant Almora injury I recall is the broken hamate bone, which could happen to anyone. The bumps, bruises and strains are likely things he could have played through, but the Cubs have been appropriately cautious with him.
National League executive: “I’d take Appel because of his pitchabilty. I think he’s a better pitch-maker than Gray. Their stuff is very similar. Appel does it better than Gray does it. I’d take [Kris] Bryant over both of them. You don’t get too many chances at a special bat.”
Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery. Has he been on the DL any other time? I don't remember if he was last season or not.
Almora was on the DL because of his hamate bone surgery. Has he been on the DL any other time? I don't remember if he was last season or not.
That is why I took the DL out of the question. Which you didn't answer, by the way. Has he missed time due to injury, prior to the problem with the hamate bone?
2
Mark Appel
POS: RHP
HT: 6-5
WT: 215
School: Stanford
Analysis: Appel or Gray. I've heard Theo Epstein loves Gray, but overall the Cubs have a real internal debate between the two options. Without a clear inclination toward either guy, I've assigned them the player I think is better.
1
Colin Moran
POS: 3B
B/T: R/R
HT: 6-3
WT: 215
School: North Carolina
Analysis: I don't think the Astros will make a formal decision on this pick until Thursday, but the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it.
The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.
They could take Jonathan Gray but won't get as much of a discount if they do. They're not on Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier, and Mark Appel doesn't seem to be one of their top two options.
@anthonyVslater: Why are scouts so enamored with OU ace Jonathan Gray? His 129th and final pitch in the 9th inning today was clocked at 102 MPH.
That's nuts, Chris27. No wonder Theo is reported to want him (and I can't imagine anyone would complain if he's the pick).
So, hypothetical: McLeod prefers Appel, Jed likes Bryant, Theo wants Gray (after the Astros take Moran). The cubs take Theo's guy, right? But what if McLeod and Jed like Appel and Theo likes Gray. Does Theo still get his guy? I'm thinking yes.
So, hypothetical: McLeod prefers Appel, Jed likes Bryant, Theo wants Gray (after the Astros take Moran). The cubs take Theo's guy, right? But what if McLeod and Jed like Appel and Theo likes Gray. Does Theo still get his guy? I'm thinking yes.
Actually don't forget Jaron Madison in this too. He's the scouting director after all.
Yeah, well, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as "the scouting director" makes the call or "McLeod should get to break all ties." The guy with the actual authority is Theo, so if anyone else "makes the call" or "breaks all ties" it will be because he says so.
Of course the highest boss can over rule those under him if he chooses, but why stop at Epstein. You might as well mention that Ricketts can over rule Epstein if he so chooses.
but I agree. If a good manager hires someone to do a job, he usually allows him to do it even when he would have gone in another direction.
But I assume that it would be McLeod, who is Director of Scouting and Development (or whatever) will likely make the decisions in the few cases when there is not a consensus.
Yeah, well, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as "the scouting director" makes the call or "McLeod should get to break all ties." The guy with the actual authority is Theo, so if anyone else "makes the call" or "breaks all ties" it will be because he says so.
From the descriptions I've read of how this leadership team operates, I get the impression that Theo wants a collaborative team approach, so much so that he is willing (as happened in Boston) that he wants to empower those below him. But I don't think there's anything mechanistic about their process, such that McLeod or the scouting director would have final authority, even if their choice were one with which Hoyer and/or Theo strongly disagreed. I expect it to be more nuanced than that.
I expect the Cubs to end up with Appel or Gray.
New post (free) - Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray tested positive for a banned stimulant in MLB predraft testing: http://klaw.me/18NVvhO
I suspect that different GMs have different attitudes on this sort of thing. I would think, given the emphasis that Theo has placed on knowing the person and not just the athlete, and on character specifically, if Gray has been taking a drug that is illegal within MLB and has (presumably) been hiding that fact, it would have at least some negative impact on their interest in drafting him.
and he can pitch like a #1 pick clean.
Astros take someone like bryant and cubs take appel. Gray doesnt make it back to us in the second jes.
Adderall abuse very common at college these days for final exam prep. Gray is a college student after all facing exams---could be he took it for that purpose (at least in part) and not so much for baseball.
and knew he needed to lose weight and increase/maintain velocity.
Read were OU's exams were a few weeks ago, so if he was tested recently, it means he was using Adderall recently.
Now, if that doesn't bother Jed/Theo, and they draft him, great.
You're not suggesting Adderall makes someone a dominant pitcher I hope.
From what I've read, Adderall XR will register in a urine test for up to 72 hours after taking it.
Not necessarily.
THC (pot) will register in a urine test for more than 30 days after use. **** will not register in a urine test after 24 hours. It Adderall remains in the system like THC does, your conclusion would not at all be clear. If Adderall remains in the system like **** does, your conclusion would make more sense
It seems fair to assume that Adderall enhances performance, or it wouldn't have been banned as a performance enhancing drug.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 1h
Beginning to sense #Astros leaning to Appel if $ fit like they want.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 1h
Don't think that's it. @texanfan2785: think news on Gray testing positive for Adderall will make #Astros think twice about him?
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA
If Appel 1-1, think Gray 1-2. Nothing set in stone. @TheCubsGuy: think the #Cubs go Bryant then?
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 50m
No. Thinking #Astros prefer Appel's superior track record. @TheCubsGuy: so Gray's stock not hurt by the failed test?
Wouldn't be shocked at all if Kohl Stewart went #1...saving $$$I totally agree.
when is the draft?
All in all, that's a question I'm just going to have to leave up to the professionals.
I just don't know enough about Bryant's hit tool to make a call on that one way or the other. If we were confident he could hit for a .280 or better type average, then yeah I'd have a lot of trouble passing up an impact bat there.
All in all, that's a question I'm just going to have to leave up to the professionals.
Wouldn't be shocked at all if Kohl Stewart went #1...saving $$$
So I'm curious to see what people think around here. Assume for a moment that the Astros take Appel (which I think is EXTREMELY unlikely):
Would you take Gray or Bryant?
My vote is Gray.
CurtOne is a bad man.
Arguello at Cubs Den with a "if Appel is gone, should Cubs take Bryant or Gray" piece. He's a good, thoughtful writer who gives a fair set of pros and cons for each guy without cherry picking observations and quotes from scouts to support either guy....though he may be a little more convincing about Bryant. He clearly hopes for Appel, however (as do I; then Bryant, then Gray):
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/06/what-if-the-astros-pick-appel-a-look-at-the-pros-and-cons-of-drafting-jonathan-gray-vs-kris-bryant/
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 14m
Appel RT @BradenConway What is your gut feeling when it comes to the Cubs at number two at the moment?
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 34m
I think the Cubs are the only high pick I haven't heard a below slot rumor about. it's only good business to let one get out, real or not.
Coward
In light of the recent events with Gray/Adderall, etc, I'm not sure how anyone can think Appel will be available for the Cubs to pick #2. I think it then boils down to if the Cubs can/will overlook the Adderall situation, or avoid it at all costs and go with Bryant.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd
Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.
Given's Houston's track record of prioritzing finances over winning, I think it's entirely possible they won't take Appel. We can certainly hope.
1. HOUSTON ASTROS: Houston may have a slight preference for Appel, but only at the right price. As a college senior, the July 12 signing deadline doesn’t apply to the Houston native, allowing him to essentially hold a club’s bonus pool hostage if he chooses. The Astros won’t take him without assurances of his cost. There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.
For now, I’m sticking with Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray as the No. 1 choice. There’s no indication that his positive drug test for Adderall (http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/jonathan-gray-and-aaron-blair-test-positive-for-adderall/) will affect the stock of BA’s top-rated prospect, and I’m told it’s not an issue with Houston.
Some sources think the Astros would take San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant ahead of Gray. Others believe they’ll seek a heavy discount from their assigned $7,790,400 pick value by taking North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran, but that doesn’t make sense for reasons I outlined in Mock v3.0 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-3-0-holding-pattern/). Frazier and Meadows are possibilities in a similar scenario.
PROJECTED PICK: Jonathan Gray.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Mark Appel/2.0: Jonathan Gray/3.0: Gray)
2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects, with the pitchers ahead of the hitters. I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.
PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray/2.0: Mark Appel/3.0: Appel)
Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects,
Doesn't Hoyerstein's comment about getting good pitching everywhere in the draft run counter to the stats (I think it was Ray) posted the other day about where stud #1's and 2's normally were drafted?
Pierce Johnson, JR?
Doesn't Hoyerstein's comment about getting good pitching everywhere in the draft run counter to the stats (I think it was Ray) posted the other day about where stud #1's and 2's normally were drafted?
Yeah...believe it was an article for hardball times. Basically, elite pitchers are pretty much found in the first. Only one that wasn't last decadish was Cliff Lee who was a fourth. Only current guy who has a chance to be number 1 and wasn't is Matt Moore. Now a lot of the first rounders fail, but if you want a number 1 guy, you pretty much just have to take the plunge. That doesn't mean good pitching can't be found later in the draft, just not many true number 1's.
There was some debate on the merit of the article. Jes argued that the article was rubbish because guys he considered number 1's weren't listed, even though every guy he named was a first rounder. To me, that supported the article's premise, but, to him, that meant the article was useless. I still don't understand that one.
More than a bit of an over-simplification. When I get off the road and have better computer access, I will try to respond more.
Reynolds is such a dumbass.
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.
I should've known better.
and, the favorite Bryant tidbit:If Bryant does join Rock Shoulders and Dan Vogelbach at Kane County, that might be a fun team to watch.
Jim Callis, Baseball America: "He has out-homered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrel ability give him elite power."
keithlaw @keithlaw 13m
I had Hunter Dozier ranked 38th in this draft class. The Royals just took him 8th.
Though Zastryzny won just two of his first 11 starts this spring as Missouri got a rude welcome to the Southeastern Conference, scouts aren't holding that against him. A lefthander who can really pitch with his fastball, he should go in the first three rounds. Zastrzyny effortlessly adds and subtracts from his fastball, usually sitting around 90 mph but capable of dropping down to 86 or elevating four-seamers up in the zone at 95. The 6-foot-3, 193-pounder can locate his fastball to either side of the plate and gets good angle, which helps it play up further. His most reliable secondary pitch is his changeup, which shows flashes of being a plus offering. His breaking ball is less consistent, as he will switch between a slider and curveball. Zastryzny throws strikes but will need to refine his command in pro ball.
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.
I should've known better.
6'03" 205lbs DOB: 03/26/92The latest in a long line of talented Missouri pitchers, Zastryzny has a good feel for the craft of pitching. His fastball typically sits in the upper-80s, but Zastryzny has the ability to add and subtract velocity as necessary. His fastball velocity typically ranges from 86 mph to 94 mph. Zastryzny, a left-hander, uses his height – he's listed at 6-foot-3 – to create a downhill angle for his fastball, which has late action. Zastryzny also throws a changeup and slider. He commands his whole arsenal well and all three of his pitches have the chance to be at least Major League-average offerings.
Zastryzny, a junior pitcher from Corpus Christi, Texas, is expected to be selected in the first three rounds when the Major League Baseball draft begins at 6 p.m. tomorrow. The first two rounds are scheduled for tomorrow, with Rounds 3-10 set for Friday and 11-40 for Saturday.
“I’ve been told as high as middle of the first (round) and as low as fifth or sixth,” said Zastryzny, who posted a 2-9 record this season, thanks mostly to meager run support in Southeastern Conference games. “Some teams have me a little higher, but you never know how the draft’s going to go.”
Baseball America ranks the 6-3, 193-pound Zastryzny (pronounced ZAS-tris-knee) as the No. 76 overall player available … the No. 24 college pitcher … the No. 12 lefthander … and the No. 5 college lefthander. Based on conversations with scouts, Missouri baseball coach Tim Jamieson said he wouldn’t be surprised if Zastryzny becomes the school’s fourth pitcher chosen in the first round since 2006.
“The thing that’s interesting this year is the handful of teams that have more than one pick in the first round,” said Jamieson, referring to the Cardinals, Yankees, Pirates, Rays and Rangers. “Rob fits very well into that second pick from a team in the first round. Everything we’re hearing is there’s a good likelihood that he could be taken late in the first round.”
In recent weeks, Zastryzny has been contacted by representatives from all 30 clubs but has had extensive discussions with the Yankees, Royals, Astros and Blue Jays. The Yankees are the only team with three first-round choices, picking at 26, 32 and 33.
.....
Scouts clocked him in the mid-90s at the SEC tournament, but Zastryzny said he’s able to drop his velocity into the 80s to keep hitters guessing.
“Instead of just pounding 93 of 94 as many times as I can,” he said, “I save it and use a lot of different fastball approaches.”
Quote:
@KendallRogersPG The #Cubs take #Mizzou LHP Rob Zastryzny. That's a heck of a pick. He was incredible at the #SEC tourney in front of scouts. Up to 95.
Paul Sullivan @PWSullivan 7m
According to Mizzou friends, it's pronounced ZAS-tris-knee. For the Chicago media's sake, he will officially be "Not Quite So Big Z"
For three months all we heard was that the Cubs would get one of the two pitchers and these idiots manage to screw that up.
I should've known better.
Lots of lipstick being applied, but this is still a pig. Signability all the way.
This guy isn't some sure-fire Hall of Famer that a lot of people are making him out to be.
There should be no ITYS about any drafted guy (well maybe other than Hayden Simpson) that anybody here boosted or blasted---draft is a crapshoot and I think everyone knows that.
It became Bryant vs. Gray when the Houston Astros took Mark Appel with the first overall pick, though there were signals that the Cubs weren’t completely sold on the Stanford University right-hander or convinced that his ceiling would be close enough to a No. 1 starter.
“We felt the best player for the Cubs long-term looking at those two players was Kris Bryant,” McLeod said. “Don’t get me wrong: We thought all three of those guys were very talented players who deserved to go 1-2-3 in the draft.
“We just made the pick that we felt was right for this organization for now and for the long-term.”
In the final analysis, Gray’s positive test for the stimulant Adderall may have called a college kid’s judgment into question, but it wasn’t a deciding factor once the story went viral in the media.
“We looked pretty deep into that and ultimately it didn’t effect how we felt about him as a player and as a person,” McLeod said. “That really had no bearing on it, other than we had to do more due diligence and figure more things out. We certainly wish health and success to Jon. He was very open with us and the Rockies got themselves a very talented player.”
...
But for this front office, a pitcher at No. 2 would have had to create clear separation from the best position player.
The Cubs couldn’t ignore Bryant, who began the season viewed as a potential top-10 pick but soared up the draft board, and into the North Side rebuilding plan, after generating 31 homers and 62 RBI in 62 games for the Toreros.
“We were never going to go into a draft to draft on need,” McLeod said. “We talked a lot about acquiring pitching and getting power pitching and certainly those players are out there in this draft and they went (No.) 1 and (No.) 3. But ultimately we’re going to make the decisions that we feel are best for this organization, both in the short- and long-term, and Kris Bryant was the player for us.
And Vitters over Matt Wieters. That was awful at the time and still needs to be ridiculed. There's still no catching in the system and Wieters is an multi time all-star and gold glove winner. Meanwhile, Vitters can't stay healthy and still hasn't made it to the Majors even as a legitimate bench player.
Could you give us two or three examples of people who are making him out to be a sure-fire Hall of Famer?
Bryant... isn't some sure-fire Hall of Famer that a lot of people are making him out to be.
“We felt the best player for the Cubs long-term looking at those two players was Kris Bryant,” McLeod said.... Gray’s positive test for the stimulant Adderall... wasn’t a deciding factor.... “We looked pretty deep into that and ultimately it didn’t effect how we felt about him as a player and as a person,” McLeod said. “That really had no bearing on it, other than we had to do more due diligence and figure more things out.”
The 2007 draft was kind of an oddball period, I think. Sam Zell bought the Trib/Cubs two months before the draft and, as I understand it, he wouldn't let the baseball guys consider Wieters because of his bonus demands.
Wieters ended up signing for $6 and Vitters for $3.2 (and Parker for $2.1 who was the alternative to Vitters).
That was unfortunate business for sure and Wieters would be a huge plus for the Cubs, obviously, although I don't think he's turned out offensively as good as some thought with his career .747 OPS to date (but much better defensively goes without saying).
Here's one, where an ESPNU analyst called him "a generational player." That's a little stronger than "Hall of Famer."
Here's one, where an ESPNU analyst called him "a generational player." That's a little stronger than "Hall of Famer."
I'm not Jes.Whew. Glad you cleared that up.
Best available
1. Kyle Serrano, RHP | Farragut (Tenn.) HS
2. Jon Denney, C | Yukon (Okla.) HS
3. Connor Jones, RHP | Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, Va.)
4. Andrew Mitchell, RHP | TCU
5. Wil Crowe, RHP | Pigeon Forge (Tenn.) HS
6. Ryan Boldt, OF | Red Wing (Minn.) HS
7. Jacob Brentz, LHP | Parkway South HS (Manchester, Mo.)
8. Garrett Williams, LHP | Calvary Baptist HS (Shreveport, La.)
9. Cord Sandberg, OF | Manatee HS (Bradenton, Fla.)
10. Dustin Driver, RHP | Wenatchee (Wash.) HS
Most of these players slid on signability concerns; Jones explicitly told scouts he would not sign and was going to Virginia, while Brentz was reportedly looking for a big bonus to buy him out of Missouri. Mitchell has worked as a starter but too many teams may view him as a reliever, and he was under-scouted early in the spring when he was a little-used piece in TCU's bullpen.
There were also some injury issues that caused a couple of these guys to fall. There are serious concerns about Crowe's medicals, as he has had ACL issues in both knees, while Boldt missed much of the season with minor knee injuries.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these guys, especially Crowe, Sandberg and Driver, go early on Friday with deals cut overnight or in the morning.
According to the Perfect Game Scouting Service, Zastryzny’s stock has risen steadily throughout the spring as evaluators have seen an improved fastball that now tops out at 94 mph with excellent sinking and running life at times. And, of course, his performance at the SEC Tournament didn’t hurt his case.
214 Jacob Hannemann [-] OF 4YR Brigham Young Utah
Drafted by the Royals in the 48th round out of high school in 2010, Hannemann headed to Brigham Young to play football and baseball. He went on his two-year Mormon mission in the spring of his freshman year, then showed his natural talent by hitting for the cycle in the team's fall alumni game when he returned. A cornerback for the football team, Hannemann is 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds with loose athleticism. He is a well above-average runner and has some work to do defensively, but he has the tools and instincts to stay in center field, though his arm grades out at the bottom of the scouting scale. A lefthanded hitter, he has a compact swing with natural strength. He needs to work on his pitch recognition, but has performed well considering he was away from the game for two years. Scouts love his makeup and intensity on the field. Already 22, Hannemann is the rare draft-eligible freshman. He's a high-risk, high-reward pick with Jacoby Ellsbury upside.
While Hannemann is enjoying an outstanding season on the baseball diamond for BYU, he is attending school on a football scholarship. The speedy Hannemann is playing so well, he is expected to be taken in the early rounds of the Major League Baseball first-year player draft June 6-8.
Hannemann is only a freshman, but don't let that fool you. The two-sport standout went on his Mormon mission before heading to college, making him 22 years old. Also a football player, Hannemann has some athletic tools to work with, even if they are a bit raw. The WCC Freshman of the Year hit well in his first taste of college ball, impressive considering he hadn't played in two years. He has the chance to hit and run well and could be a solid center field prospect for a team willing to be patient.
General manager Theo Epstein, the architect of the championship Boston teams who now works for the Chicago Cubs, apparently marveled at Hannemann's fluidness. He could look better going 0-for-5 than some players that go 5-for-5, Howard recounts Epstein saying.
So he's comped to Ellsbury -- but, seriously, I was really hoping for the "waves of arms". There are some power arms still on the board. This pick is officially weird for an organization with Almora, Brett Jackson, Ceasar, Ha, Dunston and the other kid whose name escapes me who is the plus defender and good athlete.
Skulina played a key role in Kent State’s Cinderella run to the 2012 College World Series and has taken on an even bigger role this spring as the Golden Flashes ace. He relies on his fastball-curveball combination to attack hitters and isn’t afraid to challenge them. Skulina’s fastball sits in the low-90s and runs in on right-handers. His curveball has good break and should be a Major League average offering. He uses his 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame to create a good downhill plane for both pitches. Skulina needs to develop his changeup to reach his potential.
video profile of Hahneman: a few things stand out-- he really is a super fluid athlete. He's super fast. And his mom is pretty good looking. Wonder if Jed/Theo take all of that into account?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHomG9ACLwU&feature=player_embedded
Cubs high on Hannemann. Thru 2/26: .111/.179/.139/.318 w/3 BB, 12 K in 40 PA; After 2/26: .385/.453/.631/1.084 with 20 BB, 23 K in 204 PACarrie Muskat
48. Trey Masek, rhp
Texas Tech
Primarily a reliever as a sophomore, Masek emerged as one of the best righthanded starting pitching prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer. He carried that momentum over to the start of this season, when he allowed just one earned run and 21 hits in his first 40 innings. He hasn’t been as sharp since a bout with rotator-cuff tendinitis sidelined him for a month. Masek throws strikes with four offerings, working primarily off an 89-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 and a curveball with some sharpness to it. He also has a short cutter/slider and a changeup. New Texas Tech pitching coach Ray Hayward, the 10th overall pick in 1983 and a former big leaguer, has done a nice job of helping him smooth out his delivery, which in turn has improved his command. Masek’s relatively small stature (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) and monthlong layoff do lead to some concerns about his durability, though he still figures to go in the second round.
74. Tyler Skulina, rhp
Kent State
Skulina had aspirations of going in the first five rounds as an Ohio high schooler in 2010, but a back injury and his Virginia commitment dropped him to the Athletics in the 46th round. He spend just one semester with the Cavaliers before transferring to Kent State, helping the Golden Flashesmake their first-ever College World Series appearance last June. He has been inconsistent this spring, allowing 11 earned runs in two innings against Louisville, yet carrying a 95 mph fastball and a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Miami (Ohio). Skulina shows first-round stuff when he’s at his best. The 6-foot-6, 225-pounder holds the velocity on a 91-96 mph fastball with tailing action, and he misses more bats with a tight 80-84 mph slider. He also uses a curveball to give hitters a different look and is working on a changeup. His up-and-down season is the product of inconsistent control and command, which likely will make him available in the third round.
ABTY mentioned that 2/3 went underslot so tat 6-10 wouldn't have to be senior signs.
But everybody I talked to raved about Kris Bryant as being by far the most advanced and most predictable bat in the draft.
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway) instead of seniors?
Not sure that kind of thinking is very sound, if what ABTY is saying is really true.
The big right-hander served as Pepperdine's Saturday starter in 2012, then moved into the Friday slot as a junior, continuing to show the big arm that has always intrigued scouts. His fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range, and he backs it up with a curve and changeup. He's shown gradual improvement over time with the Waves and while his results as a junior have been up and down, he's the kind of college arm that could sneak into the back end of the first round. After his sophomore season, Frazier pitched in the Cape Cod League to cap off 2012. Even with his uneven performances, his size and arm strength were still getting a lot of interest as the Draft approached.
159. Scott Frazier, rhp, Pepperdine
Frazier’s physical, projectable frame and big arm strength in high school prompted some scouts to predict he could become a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick after three years at Pepperdine if he smoothed out his delivery and refined his command. That has not happened. After an injury-marred freshman year, Frazier went 7-5, 3.39 as a sophomore and was 4-5, 4.35 this spring. He shows premium velocity, touching 94-96 mph early in games and settling in at 91-93 with late life, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and lacks command. Frazier struggles to sync up his 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame, collapsing on the front side and pitching uphill. His arm action is funky and violent, leading to long-term concerns about his durability. His curveball flashes plus, but he has difficulty throwing it for a strike, and hitters are often able to pick it up early and lay off the pitch in the dirt. He mixes in a solid changeup now and then, but he relies on his fastball and curve. Most scouts think he’ll wind up in the bullpen, where his aggressiveness will be an asset, and he can be effectively wild in short stints.
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway)?
Not sure that kind of thinking is very sound, if what ABTY is saying is really true.
245. David Garner, rhp, Michigan State
Garner has one of the stronger arms in the Big 10 Conference, reaching 94 mph with his fastball and flashing a plus slider. He sits in the low 90s with his heater, though it’s not overpowering because it lacks life and his long arm action allows hitters to see it well coming out of his hand. He also tends to drift offline from the plate, which costs him command and leads to inconsistent results. His best outing of the season came when he allowed one run in 8 1/3 innings against a strong Kentucky lineup on March 9, but Garner also failed to win any of his first six starts in conference play. He has made improvements to his changeup, though he projects as a reliever because he’s 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds. His stuff should play up and could become more reliable in shorter stints. A 33rd-round choice by the Reds from a Michigan high school in 2010, Garner could become Michigan State’s highest draft pick since the Mets took Bobby Malek in the fourth round in 2002.
At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, David Garner's size doesn't intimidate hitters. However, his slight frame is not an indication of the power the right-hander possesses. Garner owns a fastball that can touch 95 mph, while his hard-breaking slider is his primary out-pitch. He has a free delivery and aggressive approach, and his electric stuff has led to 192 strikeouts in 217 2/3 innings pitched for Michigan State during his three years in East Lansing. At times, Garner can lose his control, as he walked 27 batters this year, while also hitting six and throwing 10 wild pitches. In his first two seasons at Michigan State, Garner was in and out of the rotation, but he made all 14 appearances as a starter during his junior year. He went 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA, lifting his career numbers to 15-12 and 3.97, respectively. Garner stood out in the Cape Cod League each of the past two summers, especially in 2012, when he was named to the West Division All-Star Team. In 43 1/3 innings for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks, Garner registered 41 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA, both of which were good for top 20 in the league. Before becoming a Spartan, Garner was drafted by the Reds in the 33rd round (No. 997 overall) of the 2010 Draft.
Wilson was drafted by the Rangers in the 20th round in 2010, but he chose to attend New Mexico. He was a two-way player as a freshman, but academic issues forced him to redshirt last season and he ultimately transferred to Lamar Community College this year. Wilson has continued as a two-way player for the Runnin’ Lopes, but his professional future is on the mound. He throws his fastball around 90 mph and he has touched 94 mph in the past. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be Major League-average offerings. Wilson is athletic, has good size (he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and repeats his delivery well.
Zastryzny credits the coaching staff for helping develop his pitching arsenal, which includes an 86-88 mph fastball with tailing action, a harder 94-95 mph fastball, a change-up (which he calls his best pitch) and a promising slider he just started working on six months ago. “Some days it’s inconsistent, but it can be a plus pitch and I’m going to get it there,” Zastryzny said of his slider. “The slider has best potential.”
It also means that his elbow hasn't suffered years of abuse.
The recency of the slider is interesting. The Cubs obviously share Z's optimism about the slider, otherwise they'd not have picked him so high.
The Cubs called Thursday night to let Jacob Hannemann know they planned to draft him in the third round. Negotiations still are forthcoming, but Howard Hannemann estimated his son stands to make more than $700,000 by signing with the team.
"We never dreamed he would go this high," Hannemann said. "The numbers make sense. We thought it would be a tougher decision."
Still, I can't believe the money is close to being exhausted yet.
Yeah our draft has definitely been weird in that respect. What are we saving our money for?I know we are looking at two Latin players...does that money count against them in this draft? I don't think so.
Yeah our draft has definitely been weird in that respect. What are we saving our money for?
He'll have a .350 or .400 BA in a month sooner or later
But you can bet your ass it was a factor.
That was a good outing for Gray vs. LSU. Reminds me of the outing the Missouri Friday night starter had against them. Some lefty with a name beginning with Z....7.2 innings five hits, two runs (one earned), striking out seven and walking just one.
Hey they're taking who they think is BPA and not really worrying about need, like they said they would.
Is Hannemann signable?
P2 from a Salt Lake City newspaper before the draft:
(Hannemann's) been showing off his skills for the last week, his family paying out of pocket (in accordance with NCAA guidelines) for workouts with the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics and L.A. Dodgers.
I love how all these mid round picks are "touch 94", "top out at 96" in the scouting blurbs. Mysteriously a lot of them are going to be throwing 88-90 once they sign. Same thing every year....
So we sacrificed quality in Rounds 2-3 just so we can take regular picks in Rounds 8-10 (players that don't normally work out anyway)?
It's a little early to assume that the Cubs didn't take the best player available in the early rounds.
Of course any GM should do the class thing and not raise the Adderall issue, and no reason to think Theo and Jed would be any different. But you can bet your ass it was a factor. There's just no upside for either side in admitting it.
I believe that the Cubs would have taken Appel if he had been available, and with Appel off the board might have taken Gray if it weren't for the Adderall issue.
148 Trevor Clifton [-] RHP HS Heritage HS, Maryville, Tenn. Tenn.
Many crosscheckers compare Clifton with Georgia prep Robert Tyler, as both are tall righthanders with big velocity and raw deliveries. Some scouts call Clifton's "ugly velocity" because of his mechanics, though it is consistent velocity. The thin 6-foot-4, 185-pounder has touched 97 mph and sits 92-93. Not everyone agrees about how much projection Clifton has, as some scouts say his frame is too thin to add much weight. He does show athleticism, which should help him make adjustments to his delivery with pro coaching, and hand speed, which portends more velocity and the ability to spin a breaking ball. He throws both a curveball and slider, with the curveball showing flashes of plus power at 80 mph. He has shown more confidence in his changeup, which has its moments. A veteran of USA Baseball's 16-and-under club that won gold in 2011, Clifton may be a tough sign. He is committed to Kentucky, which has a solid track record of developing pitchers.
Sounds like the Cubs signed Clifton for 3rd round money.
Seems like Clifton wasn't the only over-slot.
https://twitter.com/TylerAlamo_
Same HS as Josh Vitters.
“The Blue Jays let me know they wanted to take me with 47th pick on Thursday night (when the draft was) around the 25th pick,” lefty Rob Zastryzny said on Saturday from Corpus Christi, Tex.
So obviously the Cubs couldn't have gotten him a round later, and he's not a flagrant overdraft. Interesting, actually, that Toronto would have been calling him that far ahead. It's one thing to be the top guy on your board at 47 (or 41); it's another to already be knowing that when the draft is only at 25. They must have had him pretty high on their board.
John Arguello @CubsDen 4h
McLeod says Mark Appel and Kris Bryant were neck and neck for them and were going to be happy either way.
John Arguello @CubsDen 4h
McLeod believes Bryant can play 3B in the majors. Tall for position but very athletic, good hands. If does have to move will be good OF'er.
John Arguello @CubsDen 4h
Cubs like Zastryzny, bulldog mentality, athletic, will pitch 90-93, solid change, two breaking pitches.
John Arguello @CubsDen 4h
McLeod says Cubs focused on college pitchers with good stuff whom they think will have an accelerated development.
Is #77 higher or lower than 76? I just want to understand your post.
The Chicago Cubs' draft is a good reminder that one reach does not necessarily equal a bad class. Chicago did take BYU center fielder Jacob Hannemann a few rounds earlier than his talent probably warranted (third round), but the rest of their picks were all solid in terms of value. Texas Tech's Trey Masek was a guy who I thought would go in the first three rounds with four average to above-average pitches, and he was nice value in the fifth round. Pepperdine's Scott Frazier had top-50 talk earlier in the year with a 96 mph fastball, so he could be seen as a steal in the sixth round. Keep an eye on fourth-round pick Tyler Skulina (Kent State), a guy who had decidedly mixed results but could be a solid mid-rotation starter with some coaching up.
The Cubs' first pick, Kris Bryant (2), was a first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego and just ended up leading Division 1 in homers this year with 31. His kind of right-handed power is hard to come by, and even if he ends up in right field down the road he'll be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience. Rob Zastryzny (41) is a four-pitch starter without an out pitch, showing good command and control but lacking life on the fastball. Jacob Hannemann (75) is a 22-year-old freshman from BYU who spent two years serving on a religious mission, with good tools including the speed to possibly stay in center, but he's already at an age when he should be in Double-A.
The Cubs took five hard throwers who probably profile in relief in the long run in Tyler Skulina (108), Trey Masek (138), Scott Frazier (168), David Garner (198), and Sam Wilson (228); Skulina and Frazier are the most intriguing because they at least have a chance to remain starters due to their size and potential for above-average breaking balls. Their one wild card pick is Trevor Clifton (348), a prep righty from Tennessee who reaches 97 mph regularly with a very violent delivery and a strong commitment to Kentucky.
Bryant entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he's on, he's a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he's struggling. He's athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn't be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love Bryant's power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him--especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.
Despite the Cubs’ pitching needs, the organization started the draft with Kris Bryant, the most exciting bat in the class, at No. 2 overall. Chicago then loaded up on arms, taking seven in the first 10 rounds. Lefty Rob Zastryzny (second round) has feel for his fastball, while college righties Tyler Skulina (fourth), Trey Masek (fifth) and Scott Frazier (sixth) all have power stuff. Frazier, who was a sixth-rounder out of high school, has the most upside but the furthest to go to realize his potential. The Cubs have more intriguing late picks than most led by BA 500 members Trevor Clifton (No. 148), Daniel Poncedeleon (322) and Michael Wagner (192), all righthanders.
About $20,000 over slot for 9th round pick.That is surprising-the kid might be worth keeping a close eye on
https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/344946837704294400
Let's really hope Bryant can hit.
Meh. Bryant will sign before too long. Not a big deal.
Cub signings seem to be going super fast.
I'll be curious to see how they handle all these college pitchers. Do they let them pitch two months? Or are the innings caps mostly exhausted with their college work?
Other than those I keep pushing, I haven't seen any numbers for innings caps for young pitchers. Does the Theocracy have any?
Bryant is expected to be the final pick the Cubs sign, likely at the July 12 signing deadline.
Boras tends to take them up right until the last hour, even when there's no reason to. I'll be pleasantly surprised if that doesn't happen here.
Cub signings seem to be going super fast.
I think most or all of the guys who are going to sign have already agreed . . .
I'm sure that Clifton/Alamo have more than exhausted the overslot money. Not sure whether Z or Hannemann may be variably underslot, but I'm guessing that Masek and/or Frasier might be variably overslot, and perhaps Garner too. So my guess is that for rounds 2-10, we're spending overslot, not under, and Clifton/Amaro way more. So I'd be pretty surprised if there's enough left to pay Bryant slot even if they wanted to. But how far under, who knows.
As a true free market supporter, I hate the slotting system... but I have to admit that it can result in some very interesting games between teams and the drafted prospects. I am not saying that it is happening with the Cubs, or with anyone, but a team in the position of the Cubs could be very direct with a top prospect, telling him immediately that they are offering him the full recommended slot amount (or the full amount plus some percentage) if he signs immediately, but that they are going to be aggressively pursuing some of the lower round high school picks which they will have to seriously overslot, and that as they do so, they will keep him fully and promptly informed of those signings so he can keep track of what remains in the team's overall pool of funds, and that if those other picks sign, then the pool of funds available for him will shrink, and will end up leaving the team with less available to sign him than the team is initially offering.
I am sure that variations on that theme are going on with most, if not all teams. But there are risks involved, especially with top draftees.
If the Cubs sign several lower draft choices overslot to the point that there is not enough money to offer slot, the draftee might just decide, as Appel did last year, to refuse to sign, and go back into the next year's draft. In that case, the team loses the entire slot money for that slot. If they have already spend it on lower choices, that may well put them over their pool limit, and result in their losing a choice next year.
To use random numbers, if the Cubs pool is 11 million dollars, and 7 million is slotted for the first round pick, if they spend 5 million on their 2nd through 10th pick, and tell Bryant that there is only 6 million dollars left, if he refuses to sign, the Cubs pool now goes down to 4 million, and since they have gone 25% over their pool, they lose their next two year's first round draft choices.
You can game any system, but it often can get quite complicated.
in this particular game, if you use the wrong strategy, the penalties for losing can be substantial.
Thanks.
Apparently Poncedeleon has unsigned. He'd apparently tweeted that he was signing, and had seemed to be tweeting that he was flying down to Mesa, etc. Apparently now that's off and he's going to Houston. Failed physical, I wonder? Weird.
True. There is a lot of that going around.
Paniagua
Obama
And my mother doesn't have one either. How can I be sure that she is really almost 104?
Skulina signes for $800,000. $300,000 over slot.
All that is true. But these kids also know that the vast majority of those drafted never even sniff the majors, and their signing bonus is all they will ever get from baseball. For the vast majority of high school signees, they would probably have been better off going through college if they think they have a good chance of increasing their signing bonus.
Unless they sign out of high school for life-changing money. $100,000 isn't life changing money. $1,000,000 probably is. The point between probably moves depending upon the specific player.
Rob Zastryzny @RobZastryzny_8 1h
Officially part of the Chicago Cubs organization. Thanks for all the support and I can't wait to start the journey. #Cubs
Retweeted by Paul Sullivan
Expand
CHICAGO - The Chicago Cubs have thus far signed eight players selected in the 2013 First-Year Player Draft, including left-handed pitcher Rob Zastryzny out of the University of Missouri, who was drafted with the 41st overall pick in the second round.
In addition, the list of Cubs signees includes right-handed pitcher Zachary Godley (10th round), catcher Cael Brockmeyer (16th round), shortstop Giuseppe Papaccio (18th round), second baseman Zak Blair (20th round), left fielder Kevin Brown (22nd round), left-handed pitcher Tyler Ihrig (23rd round) and right-handed pitcher Zak Hermans (30th round).
The Cubs officially confirm some draft signings.A Zachary and two Zaks already signed must be a first.
http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130618&content_id=50995176&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
A Zachary and two Zaks already signed must be a first.
Why did we sign a guy we overdrafted by at least two rounds over slot?
The only reason you pay a guy 25% over slot is if he was drafted well after the consensus of where he should have been. Hanneman was drafted well before every major scouting service had him projected to go. Sure, maybe there were GMs who felt he was worthy of going higher - but none of them drafted him, did they? What leverage did he have in these negotiations to claim he should be paid more than slot money, never mind this much more?
Littlewood said teams were generally more excited about Hannemann as a little bit later pick.
----------------------
"We're stoked," said Howard Hannemann, an Alpine resident and father of the 22-year-old Lone Peak graduate. "We never dreamed he would go this high."
The only reason you pay a guy 25% over slot is if he was drafted well after the consensus of where he should have been. Hanneman was drafted well before every major publication that hasn't seen every player in person had him projected to go. Sure, maybe there were GMs who had scouts and might have seen players in person was worthy of going higher - but none of them drafted him, did they? What leverage did he have in these negotiations to claim he should be paid more than slot money, never mind this much more, other than being a freshman and football player?
So you know that Hannemann would not have been drafted at some point in 3rd round had cubs passed on him? Not sure how you know that.
I think one thing is fair to say is Hannemann and his coach at BYU certainly didn't expect to him to be a 3rd round pick. Usually players have a decent range of rounds where they expect to be drafted, and especially since the 3rd round led off the second day of the draft, if teams were knocking the door down to make him a 3rd round pick, he probably would have been well aware of it.
JR, there's still the matter of Clifton, who may legitimately command overslot money.
When you can't refute an argument without actually going in and changing it to make it easier to refute, you know the counterpoint is weak.
I think the leverage issue makes sense with Hanneman. He may have been happy to return to school and increase his stock for next year.
When you can't refute an argument without actually going in and changing it to make it easier to refute, you know the counterpoint is weak.
Theo was infatuated with him. deeg's presumption that Theo is a dope may be true, at least in terms of scouting/evaluation. He's an intelligent man; but whether he's good at scouting actual baseball players, I have no idea. May be a totally dumb valuation, but I certainly do support the logic of going with somebody you think is a superior talent to the alternatives.
Jesus, Craig - who the hell said Theo was a dope? I said he was infatuated with Hanneman, which is the Occam's Razor explanation for both drafting him where he did and overpaying for him (and supported by press reports to that effect).
Jesus, Craig - who the hell said Theo was a dope? I said he was infatuated with Hanneman, which is the Occam's Razor explanation for both drafting him where he did and overpaying for him (and supported by press reports to that effect).
“It’s an interesting story,” team president Theo Epstein said last week. “He’s kind of a rare combination for a college player – tools, athleticism, speed and then also pretty polished hand-eye coordination and the ability to make contact.”
“He’s a really good kid, outstanding athlete and baseball’s coming back to him really quickly,” Epstein said. “That was enough for us to look past the age. He’s a little bit older than we expect for a player with only one season of college experience.”
JR, I think the "surprise" may not necessarily have been on Friday. My guess is they hadn't been thinking/hearing real high round, so they'd just figured give it another year. Get married, go back to school, set a high price tag and see where you stand next year. Maybe you'd get picked in 5th or 7th round, but don't sign for that. So I'm guessing the expectation would be that he'd experience what most price tag guys do; they get drafted later, like Jeremy Martinez, with no expectation of signing. But then he got called on Thursday with something that was worth maybe signing for. Perhaps it was only Theo; but maybe Texas and Boston and the Giants were calling him too, we don't know. Whether one team or four, it was probably surprising.
Hannemann is expected to be taken on the second day (Friday) not long after the third round starts. Though there is some mystery in a process that doesn't get analyzed by outsiders (pundits) as thoroughly as the pro football and basketball drafts.
Howard Hannemann said there's a "number" in mind of what it will take his 22-year-old son to leave Provo. It's in the neighborhood of being selected in the second or third round, which can approach a half-million dollars just to sign on the dotted line.
If Theo is wrong about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly overdrafted and overpaid him.
If Theo is right about Hanneman's ability, then he certainly did not overdraft or overpay him.
Are you usining Hammeman's long professional record to determine that Theo was wrong, or is it your own extensive baseball experience?
It's in the neighborhood of being selected in the second or third round, which can approach a half-million dollars just to sign on the dotted line.
Overpaying for a prospect drafted well higher than projected is overpaying, and 20-20 hindsight doesn't alter the fact. In the days before draft spending caps it didn't matter so much - now it does.
You may want to put in some practice on posting without coming off as a complete sarcastic dickhead. But that's your call.
craig, you might have a point after all. I just noticed this digging through some articles on him.
So they were demanding a second or third round bonus it appears, and obviously the Cubs thought it was worth it.
http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-hannemann-likely-to-get-drafted-high-in-baseball/article_50ac6e36-ceb5-11e2-95ee-001a4bcf887a.html
I suspect the Provo author was suggesting the "approaching half million", and hanneman didn't exactly spell it out for him. Z's 2nd round slot was $1.36, for example, teams have 5% overage, and players with more than senior eligibility left routinely get overslot. I assume it didn't get to $1M until they called, asked if he'd sign for slot, and they said no.
Keith Law doing a chat today and says that Bryant will get a larger bonus than Appel---and that Cubs knew that before draft.
Keith Law doing a chat today and says that Bryant will get a larger bonus than Appel---and that Cubs knew that before draft.
Was at his first start in West TN...electric...
Cactus, I think that game was on TV, I remember that. People were just going nuts, he looked so great.
I think it was the following spring, I believe also against the Sox and also in one of the few TV games that got a lot of the serious fans watching, that Angel Guzman also had a dazzling outing. Man the future looked good, pitching-wise, in those days.
Patrick Mooney @CSNMooney 4m
Cubs signings: P S. Wilson (8th round/Lamar); C J. Hankins (11th/Austin Peay); P T. Graham (13th/Franklin Pierce); P M. Wagner (15th/USD).
You've got to really trust Boras if you're going into penalty on the assumption that Bryant will sign subslot later and get you out of penalty. If skulina is actually official and BA's numbers are correct, then the Cubs are in penalty right now by about $50K. They need Garner and/or Bryant to get them out of penalty, using BA's numbers.
There almost certainly won't be any bonus pool money left over for him if he wants to go pro. He'll have to just accept the standard $100K penalty free bonus. It seems like he wouldn't really want to do that.
I'll be surprised if Bryant gets over $6.
I hope you're right. Keith Law said he'd get more than the $6.35M Appel got, and that ABTY character had Bryant at $6.25.
Then again, going back through some of our draft postings, neither one of those guys seemed to get a whole lot right when it came to our draft.
Kris Bryant - 3B - Cubs
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs and first-round pick third baseman Kris Bryant are "nowhere close to a deal."
Bryant, a strong right-handed hitter out of the University of San Diego, was selected No. 2 overall in this month's First-Year Player Draft. The 22-year-old is said to be looking for something above the $6.7 million slot recommendation while the Cubs would prefer for a deal in the $6 million range. Represented by Scott Boras, there's a chance Bryant could go back to school for his senior season. The Cubs have until July 15 to reach an agreement and it sounds like negotiations could go down to the wire.
Word is, Bryant is looking for something above the $6.7 million slot allotted for the No. 2 pick, while it's believed the Cubs are thinking about something closer to the $6 million range.
Well this is pretty simple math. The most the Cubs can offer Bryant is $7,049,325.
I'm sure Scott Boras sees his mission as getting every dime of that $7,049,325 he possibly can. The Cubs need to get to at least $700,000 below that amount to get Clifton signed.
So, if Bryant were to return to school, what is the most he could reasonably expect IF he moves up to the #1 draft position next year (which assumes he doesn't get injured in the meantime), given the slotting structure? And, given that he will have lost the leverage of returning to college at that point? Seems like a lot of risk to take for whatever the difference is between what he can get from the Cubs this year. I will be astonished if he doesn't sign with the Cubs, and for a reasonable amount.
The most he could reasonably expect after another outstanding year as a senior would be about what Appel got ($6.35M), adjusted for the average increase in MLB salaries, so call it $6.8M. That's if Miami doesn't prefer Rodon. If Bryant doesn't go #1, he could slide several more picks and wind up with $4M or less.
So what possible justification would there be for Bryant not to sign with the Cubs for something around $6M?
So what possible justification would there be for Bryant not to sign with the Cubs for something around $6M?
If he doesn't sign, the screw up would be on the part of Bryant, not on the Cubs.
Privately, team officials expected Bryant’s advisor, Scott Boras, to push these negotiations right up to the July 12 signing deadline. Bryant even used the Boras playbook on that teleconference three weeks ago, talking about “if we figure out a deal here” and “if we can make this deal happen.”
So Wednesday’s CBSSports.com report saying the two sides are “nowhere close to a deal” shouldn’t have been alarming. There’s still plenty of time to find common ground between Theo Epstein’s front office, the game’s most powerful agent and a potential star attraction at Wrigley Field.
Bryant isn't exactly endearing himself to Cubs' fans, and it would get worse if we actually lost Clifton, Alamo and perhaps others because he waited too long to sign his contract. Clifton, Alamo, et al wouldn't like it, either. If he isn't signed by July 1, I'd offer him $6 million and tell Bryant and Boras that the offer goes down by $100,000 every 24 hours until he signs or the deadline passes.
No one is in better position. However, several feel as if they are.Truer words have never been spoken.
Sorry, Jes, but we do not have enough information to say that if Bryant fails to sign, that means the Cubs front office screwed up.
They have access to hundreds of scouting reports, and have first hand knowledge of all aspects of the negotiations. Is there anyone on this board that is in a better position to make that call than the Cubs front office?
"Drama" is silly. There is none. He'll sign, everybody should know that. It's just a question of when and for how much. Even with the great Boras as agent, Appel got barely over $6 this round. So there is no upside for Bryant. It's just a question of when Bryant signs and whether any cash will be left for other talent. Boras can wait it out and try to get the full 105%. Why not?
"Drama" is silly. There is none. He'll sign, everybody should know that. It's just a question of when and for how much. Even with the great Boras as agent, Appel got barely over $6 this round. So there is no upside for Bryant. It's just a question of when Bryant signs and whether any cash will be left for other talent. Boras can wait it out and try to get the full 105%. Why not?Perhaps the Cubs are providing the drama. Anything to distract people from the product on the field. Just sayin'
I guess it's just an inherent need for Cub fans to wring their hands on message boards, whatever the subject. There is a deep belief that something will go wrong, no matter what. Maybe it was that way in Boston before they finally won it all. But I'm not sure that will change for some Cub fans even if the Cubs make it to the World Series (or even win it) some day. The worst thing about that is this affliction can limit one's ability to enjoy things for what they are when good things do happen, due to worrying about what disappointments lurk around the corner.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA
#Cubs will sign him, but might be last 1st-rder to get done. @chrislowy: Is Bryant the next? #mlbdraft
1. Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic
Born: Nov. 27, 1996. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. B-T: R-R.
It’s hard to find one player who clearly stands above the rest in this year’s international signing class, but Jimenez is the closest thing to a consensus choice. He has traveled to play in international tournaments going back to 2008, when he played in the Cal Ripken World Series in Aberdeen, Md., and was teammates with Mets shortstop Amed Rosario. He went to Miami to play for the Dominican team that won its third consecutive championship in the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities World Series junior division last summer, following Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman of the Rangers in 2011 and Gustavo Cabrera of the Giants in 2012.
Jimenez plays in the International Prospect League and trains with Amauris Nina, the same trainer who produced Royals $3 million outfielder Elier Hernandez in 2011, and scouts think the two are comparable. Several teams see Jimenez as a better version of Hernandez. He has good baseball instincts, but his bat isn’t as advanced as Guzman’s or last year’s No. 1 prospect, Blue Jays Venezuelan shortstop Franklin Barreto. Some scouts have seen him hit in games, while others haven’t seen the game dominance that would merit the type of bonus he’s expected to command. His long arms create length to his swing and he will need to keep his hips from flying open too early, but he has good hand-eye coordination and uses the middle of the field. Jimenez has average raw power and a flat swing that results in hard line drives rather than loft power. With his size and strength potential, he could grow into above-average power. Some scouts think he has the ingredients to hit, so it may be a matter of making subtle adjustments.
Jimenez is athletic for his size and in January ran the 60-yard dash in 6.72 seconds, which is above-average speed. Others have said his speed plays closer to average and because of his frame and unusual gait, he will continue to slow down as he fills out, so he’s a corner outfielder all the way. With a slightly above-average arm, he should be able to play right field. The Cubs have the second-highest international bonus pool this year and are seen as the favorites to sign Jimenez, whose price tag is expected to be in the $2.4 million-$2.8 million neighborhood.
2. Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela Born: Dec. 13, 1996. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185. B-T: R-R.
Every year trainer Ciro Barrios has some of the most expensive players in Venezuela. His best prospect yet, Barreto, signed with the Blue Jays last year for $1.45 million, and Torres is the top Venezuelan prospect this year, though he isn’t as advanced as Barreto.
Torres is a savvy player with present skills and the potential for five average or better tools. He has a clean, compact stroke, hits in games and shows good power projection, although he mostly works the gaps right now. He has good bat speed and hand-eye coordination to put the ball in play, although he can be a bit of a front-foot hitter and tends to pull off the ball at times.
Some scouts believe Torres is a true shortstop, while others think he’s not athletic enough. He could end up being a guy who splits time between shortstop, third base and second base, with a skill set that draws comparisons to Freddy Sanchez. He has good hands and a strong arm, but he doesn’t have the classic wiry shortstop frame and is already fairly filled out. Back in November, Torres showed above-average speed, but more recently he’s been running closer to average.
Some scouts wonder if Torres has just been coasting because he knows it’s unlikely anyone has the budget to pay him more than the Cubs, the team he’s most associated with. He’s expected to be the top-paid player in Venezuela, and some scouts prefer him to Jimenez. The two may end up being teammates soon.
16. Erling Moreno, rhp, Colombia
Born: Jan. 13, 1997. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 190. B-T: R-R.
Erick Julio and Moreno are the best of Colombia’s bumper crop of pitchers, though lefthander Luis Barrios could also end up with a mid-six-figure bonus. While Julio stands out for his feel for pitching and projection for three pitches, Moreno has a bigger frame and projects to be more of a power pitcher.
Moreno doesn’t have a plus fastball yet, working anywhere from 87-90 mph, but he has plenty of room to add weight and velocity so he could throw in the mid-90s eventually. He gets good angle on his fastball and works down in the strike zone. He keeps hitters off his fastball with a solid changeup, a pitch that some scouts think is ahead of his breaking ball. Other scouts prefer his breaking ball and think it’s a projectable pitch. Moreno, who trains with Edinson Renteria, has drawn a lot of interest from the Cubs.
I'm sure some of you saw the other day that the Bleacher Nation guy interviewed Jason Parks, the National Prospect and Player Development Writer for Baseball Prospectus. Parks wasn't real high on Jimenez -- said he was a showcase warrior but that in game situations he wasn't a very good baseball player. But, the kid is 16, so who knows.....
I like Almora, but I do worry a bit about not seeing any one offensive weapon that stands out. I don't think you're going to see a lot of HR or SB, and right now you're not seeing any walks. He may learn to be a little more patient but I don't think he's ever going to be a big-time OBP guy. He may grow into 15 HR power, and he'll probably steal 10-15 bases. But he's going to have to hit .300 to be a good offensive player.
Even without Feldman the Cubs' starting pitching is good enough to keep them out of the top five picks. If Garza is traded, perhaps that changes.
That starting pitching hasn't done too much to boost them in the standings so far.
If you were a kid who hoped to be taken higher and expected $8-900K, and now faced with a choice of $440K or waiting three years and hoping to get more then, what would you do? I have no idea of Clifton's family situation but it's an interesting question.
I think that, for the most part, unwritten promises are kept. However, the promises with unwritten promises is that each side sometimes honestly believes something different than the other side.The problem with unwritten promises is that the one making the promise gets canned.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 8h
Just noticed top 4 #mlbdraft bonuses ever are all Boras Corp.: Cole ($8 mil), Strasburg ($7.5 mil), Starling ($7.5 mil), Bryant ($6,708,400)
Bryant and Boras are at Wrigley today for a press conference. He will go to Mesa then Boise. Wonder if Bryant will take BP at Wrigley - or if former Cubs' farmhand Boras will?
Hopefully he'll be taking batting practice for real in a couple of years.And hopefully he will no longer talking to Dale Sveum.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 16m
#Cubs sign 19th-rder Will Remillard for $150k. Coastal Carolina C helped his cause with a strong Cape Cod Lg performance. #mlbdraft
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 16m
Bryant. @chicagochiguy: Coming into their professional careers who did you have rated higher - Braun or Bryant? #Brewers #Cubs #mlbdraft
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 26s
#Cubs sign 11th-rder Trevor Clifton (148 on BA 500) for $375k. Tenn. HS RHP, sits 92-93, up to 97, promising curve & change too. #mlbdraft
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA 1m
#BlueJays did not sign 10th overall pick Phil Bickford, who's headed to Cal State Fullerton. #mlbdraft
Remilad got $150,000. I guess he improved his stock in the Cape.
Cubs have $15,000 and change left before they lose a pick.
One more reason to finish in the bottom 10.
And yet Johnny Manziel continues to play football.
Genius.
Frankly, at this point, with lot of baseball left to play before the draft, I'm hoping Turner is the Cubs' pick.