Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 161770 times)

mO

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Cubs in '12
« on: September 29, 2011, 10:14:39 am »
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« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 03:19:15 pm by mO »

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davep

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2011, 10:23:26 am »
Time to set up a Cubs in 2013 thread.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2011, 10:33:12 am »
Jeff are you still keeping up with the payroll situation?  This might be a good time for a run down.

Clarkaddison

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2011, 10:36:18 am »
We won't have Quade to kick around any more.

AZSteve

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2011, 10:53:37 am »
blech...Cubs will still have Soriano

Cubsin

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2011, 11:03:51 am »
Regardless of who the new GM turns out to be, he's going to have to make several important decisions very quickly.

First, he has to decide whether to pick up ARam's option, try to extend his contract or decline his option and offer arbitration. Next, he has to decide whether or not to bring Zambrano back. He also has to figure out what to do with Soriano, Quade and his coaching staff. He has to establish his goals and objectives for free agency and offseason trades. The sooner he's named, the better.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2011, 11:09:50 am »

Some things I would ideally like to see this offseason (in addition to adding the Friedman/Maddon or Epstein/Francona tandem):
  • Target CJ Wilson, and make the best offer unless bidding gets ridiculous.  I'd definitely be willing to go as far as Jered Weaver's 5 year, $85 million deal.
  • Attempt to add a young hitter who could become a building block player along with Castro and Garza (and hopefully Jackson).  I've mentioned Alonso (blocked by Votto) and Morrison (out of favor with the Marlins) several times, but there are probably others out there.  Dominic Brown and Brandon Belt come to mind immediately as top prospects whose teams just don't seem to want to play them, for example.  I'm sure there are others.
  • Make Ramirez a "take it or leave it" offer pretty quickly around 2 years, $22-$26 million with a team option for 2014.  If he doesn't accept, move on and find an under the radar trade (Chase Headley?  Martin Prado?).
  • Avoid Fielder and Pujols because their contracts will be far too long.  Find a short term (1-3 years at most) middle of the lineup hitter (Beltran?  Ethier?  Wright?), which will allow the Cubs a little more time to determine where they need long term help.
  • Find the best trade offer for Marmol and take it. He's far more Eric Gagne than Mariano Rivera.
  • Dump Zambrano and Soriano, with the strategy being to take the deal that serves the most money.  No matter how much of these contracts the Cubs pay, they're not going to get anything better than some team's 20th-25th best prospect.  They're better off saving an extra $3 million or whatever.  Obviously, there are exceptions (specifically, I'm thinking about Zambrano having value to Ozzie Guillen, and eating more money might make him appealing as a second piece in a Morrison deal)...but generally, saving money should be the goal.
  • Make sure there is starting pitcher depth.  Coleman and Russell should not go into 2012 as the 6th and 7th starters.
  • Make it clear that CF is Brett Jackson's job to lose.

The Marlins are the most interesting team to watch in relation to the Cubs' offseason, I think.   Recent developments just seem to be great for the Cubs.  We all know of Morrison's issues and Zambrano's strong relationship with Ozzie.  But there are other factors too...they may not have a closer after the Nunez/Oviedo situation (making them a possible destination for Marmol).  There have been rumors the last few days that they will shop the disappointing but reasonablly productive Ricky Nolasco (giving a potential contract match for Marmol who fills a Cubs need).  They could potentially be a one stop shop to address several things the Cubs need to do this offseason.

StrikeZone

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2011, 11:29:13 am »
We won't have Quade to kick around any more.

From your keyboard to God's ears.

BullingersEars

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2011, 11:42:49 am »
I think we're committed to about $90 going into next year.... is $125 a reasonable payroll guess?

It seem the team is committed to Pena.  As a good defender (though not quite as good as advertised IMO), with power I'm ok with this.  Maybe a two year deal around $16?

I have no clue what the team does at third base, as it sounds Ramirez is out the door.

If they go cheap at the hot corner, it could leave about $25 million to land a couple of quality starting pitchers.  Sabathia (maybe) and Wilson are class of the market.  My guy Vazquez seems bent on retirement.  After that the FA pool drops to the Jeff Francis' of the world.

In the trade market, I too have heard Nolasco's name thrown around.  The Yankees would love to move AJ Burnett.  The Rays have a deluge of starters (Price, Shields, Hellickson, Davis, Niemann, Cobb, Moore) and would probably be willing to talk.  Not sure if we've been in the Yu Darvish conversation. 

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2011, 11:55:55 am »
Regardless of who the new GM turns out to be, he's going to have to make several important decisions very quickly.

First, he has to decide whether to pick up ARam's option, try to extend his contract or decline his option and offer arbitration. Next, he has to decide whether or not to bring Zambrano back. He also has to figure out what to do with Soriano, Quade and his coaching staff. He has to establish his goals and objectives for free agency and offseason trades. The sooner he's named, the better.

Why would he have to make those decisions?

We have already hashed each one of those out and have come to a consensus.

Why would a new GM go against the consensus here?

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2011, 12:03:27 pm »
Make sure there is starting pitcher depth.  Coleman and Russell should not go into 2012 as the 6th and 7th starters.

True.  With an improved defense behind him, Coleman should go into 2012 as the 4th or 5th starter.




Dump Zambrano and Soriano, with the strategy being to take the deal that serves the most money.  No matter how much of these contracts the Cubs pay, they're not going to get anything better than some team's 20th-25th best prospect.

Not even close to accurate.

While I am not saying the Cubs will do so, if they agreed to eat ALL of each of those contracts, they could likely get a very nice prospect in the bargain.  Zambrano still has the potential to return to what he was at the end of last season, when he was turning in true ace performances, and Soriano would likely be a perfectly acceptable DH for the next couple of years for some AL team.  Both could bring much more than a team's 20th-25th best prospect.  Now, I am not saying the Cubs either will or should eat that much contract, but they could.

Cubsin

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2011, 12:19:31 pm »
Byrd is a trading chip if the Cubs commit to B. Jackson. And aren't Mark Buerle and Edwin Jackson among the FA pitchers?

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2011, 12:59:54 pm »
Byrd should be a trading chip even if the Cubs do not commit to Jackson.

The Cubs can always replace Byrd with utter roster fill until talent develops, or replace him with Campana who would add considerable excitement, even if his hitting is weak enough he would actually be a performance liability.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2011, 01:34:22 pm »

Some things I would ideally like to see this offseason (in addition to adding the Friedman/Maddon or Epstein/Francona tandem):
  • Target CJ Wilson, and make the best offer unless bidding gets ridiculous.  I'd definitely be willing to go as far as Jered Weaver's 5 year, $85 million deal.
  • Attempt to add a young hitter who could become a building block player along with Castro and Garza (and hopefully Jackson).  I've mentioned Alonso (blocked by Votto) and Morrison (out of favor with the Marlins) several times, but there are probably others out there.  Dominic Brown and Brandon Belt come to mind immediately as top prospects whose teams just don't seem to want to play them, for example.  I'm sure there are others.
  • Make Ramirez a "take it or leave it" offer pretty quickly around 2 years, $22-$26 million with a team option for 2014.  If he doesn't accept, move on and find an under the radar trade (Chase Headley?  Martin Prado?).
  • Avoid Fielder and Pujols because their contracts will be far too long.  Find a short term (1-3 years at most) middle of the lineup hitter (Beltran?  Ethier?  Wright?), which will allow the Cubs a little more time to determine where they need long term help.
  • Find the best trade offer for Marmol and take it. He's far more Eric Gagne than Mariano Rivera.
  • Dump Zambrano and Soriano, with the strategy being to take the deal that serves the most money.  No matter how much of these contracts the Cubs pay, they're not going to get anything better than some team's 20th-25th best prospect.  They're better off saving an extra $3 million or whatever.  Obviously, there are exceptions (specifically, I'm thinking about Zambrano having value to Ozzie Guillen, and eating more money might make him appealing as a second piece in a Morrison deal)...but generally, saving money should be the goal.
  • Make sure there is starting pitcher depth.  Coleman and Russell should not go into 2012 as the 6th and 7th starters.
  • Make it clear that CF is Brett Jackson's job to lose.

The Marlins are the most interesting team to watch in relation to the Cubs' offseason, I think.   Recent developments just seem to be great for the Cubs.  We all know of Morrison's issues and Zambrano's strong relationship with Ozzie.  But there are other factors too...they may not have a closer after the Nunez/Oviedo situation (making them a possible destination for Marmol).  There have been rumors the last few days that they will shop the disappointing but reasonablly productive Ricky Nolasco (giving a potential contract match for Marmol who fills a Cubs need).  They could potentially be a one stop shop to address several things the Cubs need to do this offseason.


I agree with a lot of this.  I do think you go after one prime FA a year; you don't try to repair all the damage in one year.  I would have Prince, Pujols, CJ Wilson and not much else on my list and give it my best shot.

The problem with trading for a lot of those players who could potentially help us, the problem is...who do you trade?  The chips are few.  Byrd, Wells?  Beyond that, you have Marshall and Soto, people you'd prefer to keep, I would think.  Either the player or the Cubs have pretty much made Marmol, Colvin, Zambrano untradeable.   That makes it kind of hopeless.

Cactus

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2011, 01:48:08 pm »
I agree with a lot of this.  I do think you go after one prime FA a year; you don't try to repair all the damage in one year.
Jim Hendry did that when he signed who was arguably the best free agent three years in a row.


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