Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 203271 times)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1655
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10005 on: November 27, 2012, 01:48:20 pm »

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 20339
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10006 on: November 27, 2012, 06:13:16 pm »
Feldman is another castoff, a guy with borderline AAAA stuff to be a warm body.  It's no big deal either way to spend money in 2013, but $6 million is way too much for a guy with his numbers.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18846
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10007 on: November 27, 2012, 06:27:46 pm »
His DIP numbers aren't bad and Bill James projected him to have an ERA of just above for 2013.  For $6 million that isn't too bad.

Reb

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10008 on: November 27, 2012, 07:10:19 pm »
Here's another Fangraphs piece today on Feldman.  What jumps out at me is that 11.4% of his runs allowed were unearned so, as Hoyer pointed out in his comments, he pitched in some hard luck.  His FIP for 2012 was 3.81.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote up a comparison between Scott Feldman and Brandon McCarthy, noting that the two pitchers were probably more similar than their reputations would lead you to believe.
FanGraphs Baseball · fangraphs.com

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16248
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10009 on: November 27, 2012, 07:35:59 pm »
His DIP numbers aren't bad and Bill James projected him to have an ERA of just above for 2013.  For $6 million that isn't too bad.

Just above what?  4.0? 

He's got a career ERA+ of 95, so that's more anti-awful than Germano and Coleman.  2012 was his second season where he was kept in the majors all year, and didn't have any minor-league assignments.  He's had four seasons with >50 innings, and had ERA's over 5 in three of those, but was below 5 once, so what's happened once could happen again.  And to be given 20 or more starts in four different seasons, I'm not sure that will ever happen for Raley or Coleman or Rusin.  (Although it might, who knows....) 

There is value in anti-awful, and I'd think a guy like Feldman could help prevent another 100-loss season.  Doesn't seem likely to be a real hot trade chip, but in July there can be teams where an anti-awful starter is of some value. 

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16248
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10010 on: November 27, 2012, 07:40:42 pm »
Here's another Fangraphs piece today on Feldman.  What jumps out at me is that 11.4% of his runs allowed were unearned so, as Hoyer pointed out in his comments, he pitched in some hard luck.  His FIP for 2012 was 3.81.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-sign-scott-feldman-land-another-bargain/

3.81 isn't too bad.  I also agree with the comment tico made that getting out of Texas could knock a couple of HR's off, as could getting away from the DH.  I'd think his IP/HR ratio might get on the right side of 10:1 in the NL. 

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18846
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10011 on: November 27, 2012, 08:09:16 pm »
Yes an ERA of 4.19.  He could also get moved to the bullpen and have some value as a setup guy.  1 year and $6 million will make him tradeable if he performs and if not he isn't going to keep the Cubs from doing anything.

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10012 on: November 27, 2012, 08:18:17 pm »
This dude {Feldman} sucks.

I dont even know why we've wasted 2 pages talking about him let alone giving him that much money?

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14445
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10013 on: November 27, 2012, 09:32:02 pm »
We as Cubs fans seem to be having trouble with the fact that, after Epstein and Hoyer tell us what they plan to do, they actually do it.

Dave, I'd agree that this is well within what Theo said he'd do when he took over.  He said there would be no quick fixes, and this is well within what he said about that.  And I think that's an appropriate strategy.  I'd rather be signing Scott Feldman for one year than Jeremy Guthrie for three years.  (Quite frankly, Feldman at one year sounds better to me than Guthrie at three years, even if we were trying to be contenders this year.)

I would disagree that I have many expectations that we'll be better next year than last year, though.  I don't see too many areas where we're projected to be better, and a lot of these guys we're signing will likely be traded off at the deadline.  Like br said, Feldman isn't a high ceiling signing to me.  I think Baker is a relatively high ceiling signing because he's proven to get a decent number of strikeouts when he's healthy.  Feldman's ceiling (unless he's able to keep up his respectable but not great K numbers and good BB numbers from last year) is pretty much as a #4 or #5 starter.  I just don't see a whole lot of great value in that, and guys like that won't bring a lot of value back at the trade deadline.

More than likely, we'll be paying Feldman to eat up innings instead of being a very productive pitcher.  That's well within Theo's framework of where he's going, but I'd still like to see is lose fewer than 100 games in 2013.  I'm not sure Feldman does a lot to help us out with that.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10014 on: November 27, 2012, 09:33:29 pm »
....the Cubs will be a lot better this year than they were last year, at least until the July trading deadline.

Oh, ye of little faith....

The Cubs of 2013 have every chance of actually being worse than they were in 2012.  At the 2012 trade deadline, the Cubs were 43-59, and went 18-42 the rest of the way, actually playing better after the trade deadline than before it.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14445
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10015 on: November 27, 2012, 09:38:50 pm »
Feldman's deal is for 1 year, $6 million with $1 million in incentives.  Sounds a little pricey for a guy who has been pretty mediocre in his career.  And it probably also means they see him as a starter, not a swing guy.

One thought about Feldman being pricey, the Cubs are pretty much going to have to overpay for whatever free agents they bring in.  Feldman I'm sure is coming to the Cubs with the expectation that we're not going to be very good and that he'll be dealt at the trade deadline if he's any good. 

That can't be the ideal situation for a veteran pitcher even for Feldman, so if we want to bring him in, we'll have to pay him the highest salary he could reasonably expect.  As long as we're bringing in guys like that under one year contracts, it isn't all bad.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7170
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10016 on: November 27, 2012, 09:41:06 pm »
Oh, ye of little faith....

The Cubs of 2013 have every chance of actually being worse than they were in 2012.  At the 2012 trade deadline, the Cubs were 43-59, and went 18-42 the rest of the way, actually playing better after the trade deadline than before it.

Can anyone translate this?

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16442
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10017 on: November 27, 2012, 09:42:19 pm »
JR - the operative phrase was "until the July trading deadline".  I think, and even hope, that they will make trades in July similar to those they made last year.  I have no idea what Feldman or baker could bring in at that point, but a year ago at this time, I doubt that anyone thought Maholm could bring back Vizcaino.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14445
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10018 on: November 27, 2012, 09:44:05 pm »
As far as bringing in a swing man or potential #6 or #7 starters go, I wonder if Theo will bring in pitchers with the promise of them "competing" with Travis Wood for the #5 starter spot. 

I don't think there's a dime's worth of difference between Feldman and Wood, and I really think Wood is probably a little better bet to be productive than Feldman next year.

Still, we really need to bring in some possibilities for backup starting pitchers.  The difference between 100 losses and 120 losses may not matter to some fans, but I don't think Theo wants us trotting out complete embarrassments like Coleman or Belken next season if we have holes in the rotation.  They'll probably want a little bit better depth in starting pitching than we had this past season.

Pretty much, Samardzija, Garza, Baker, and Feldman are safely in the rotation, so unless the Theocracy is satisfied with Brooks Raley and Nick Struck starting games for us next year, you have to imagine Travis Wood will at least get some veteran competition in camp next spring.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14445
Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10019 on: November 27, 2012, 09:52:19 pm »
JR - the operative phrase was "until the July trading deadline".  I think, and even hope, that they will make trades in July similar to those they made last year.  I have no idea what Feldman or baker could bring in at that point, but a year ago at this time, I doubt that anyone thought Maholm could bring back Vizcaino.

You might be right Dave, but Maholm did have a better track record of success than Feldman when we signed Maholm.  If Feldman's peripherals from 2012 hold up, he possibly/probably could fetch a solid prospect or two.  More than likely, I'm guessing that his 2012 peripherals were a fluke, and he'll go back to being the mediocre innings eater/swing man that he was for most of his career in Texas.  I guess if we were taking gamb les on starting pitchers, I'd like to see us bring in with someone with more potential, but we'll see how things work out.

BTW I do like Baker, though.  If he's all the way back from Tommy John, I think he could bring a pretty good prospect or two at the trade deadline.  I wouldn't even put it outside the realm of possibility that we might extend him for 2-3 years.