Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 203163 times)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10755 on: January 02, 2013, 10:11:12 pm »
From the Cubs' perspective, any trade of Stanton would start with Baez and Vogelbach, IMO. Both are high ceiling guys currently blocked by borderline superstars who are very young. Baez has crazy tools, but he also has a long, long way to go, and if he is pushed off SS, his value drops. Probably not by much, given the **** poor state of 2B and 3B at the ML level, but the value still goes down. Vogelbach isn't going to move to another position with the way that Theo and Hoyer value defense, and I doubt Rizzo will, either. So unless the NL is getting a DH anytime soon, Vogelbach just doesn't fit this roster. Baez/Vogelbach isn't Profar/Olt by any means, but it's not chopped liver, either.

Not sure where you go from there, as I doubt the Cubs want to trade pitching outside of Garza, and I don't see Garza working for the Marlins. I don't see the Cubs selling low on Jackson, Almora is kind of the poster child for this front office, Soler's trade value probably isn't high enough to warrant including in the deal, and no one else is valueable enough to be a co-headliner in a Stanton deal. Perhaps that's where another team would have to get involved - Garza goes to a contender who sends more prospects to the Marlins, for example.

A trade for Stanton would be tough enough to accomplish, let alone a multi-team deal. It's fun to dream, and with the way a move like this could accellerate the Cubs' timetable to contention, converting risky long-term assets into blue-chip long term assets, I think a deal could make sense. I just don't think there's a deal to be had in the first place.

All that said, since we've entertained the impossible for a moment, why not continue? After the Cubs trade for Stanton, next winter they refuse to be out-bid for Cano.

« Last Edit: January 02, 2013, 10:16:48 pm by ticohans »

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10756 on: January 02, 2013, 10:43:52 pm »
Does anyone know Stanton's contract/free agency status?

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10757 on: January 02, 2013, 10:46:23 pm »
Arb eligible in 2014, free agent in 2017, per baseball-reference.com.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10758 on: January 02, 2013, 10:47:14 pm »
1 pre-arb year, 3 arb years left.  I reallllllly doubt the Marlins trade him unless they get an absurd package.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10759 on: January 02, 2013, 10:52:44 pm »
I have no interest at all in raping our farm system for Stanton.

We need a lot more than one player no matter how good he may be.

I saw him play a lot when he was in the Southern League and he is an amzing athlete though.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10760 on: January 02, 2013, 11:15:57 pm »
Vogelbach isn't going to move to another position with the way that Theo and Hoyer value defense, and I doubt Rizzo will, either.

Manny Ramirez, and Mark Bellhorn were both regular position players on Theo teams, and Vogelbach are on record as saying Vogelbach should be able to be acceptable defensively in LF, without being a defensive liability.

I think too many people continue to write him off as a fat boy.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10761 on: January 02, 2013, 11:41:12 pm »
It's hard to imagine that Vogelbach could be a worse left fielder than manny Ramirez.

Of course, it is possible that he won't be as good a hitter as manny.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10762 on: January 02, 2013, 11:51:06 pm »
Mark Bellhorn was a swiss army knife kind of a player: did a ton of things marginally well enough to be useful. Could play any position on the diamond (and actually wasn't that bad at 2B), minus catcher. Switch hit. During the year he got a decent amount of PA's for Boston, he posted great offensive numbers for a MI.

Manny Ramirez is one of the best hitters ever. On the all time OPS+ leaderboard, his name is in the grouping with Mays, Aaron, DiMaggio, Wagner, Robinson, etc.

Both players are awful comps for Vogelbach as to why his defense might play in LF under a Theo regime.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2013, 11:54:10 pm by ticohans »

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10763 on: January 02, 2013, 11:53:48 pm »
I don't expect to see Vogelbach in Chicago before September 2015. By then, the National League may well have adopted the Designated Hitter to standardize the rules of MLB and stop the drain of NL sluggers moving to the AL for longer contracts than NL teams could sanely offer.

Even if that doesn't happen, Vogelbach might have trimmed down a bit by the time he reaches Chicago.

Finally, if Miguel Cabrera (listed as 6'4", 240) can play 3B, either Vogelbach or Rizzo might be able to do the same.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10764 on: January 02, 2013, 11:59:18 pm »
Finally, if Miguel Cabrera (listed as 6'4", 240) can play 3B, either Vogelbach or Rizzo might be able to do the same.

Miguel Cabrera is both incredibly athletic for a man his size and is in the Manny Ramirez hitter class. Again, a very poor argument for why shifting either Rizzo or Vogelbach around the diamond might make sense.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10765 on: January 03, 2013, 12:56:43 am »
Actually, both are very good arguments.  The point being made is that if a player is a good enough hitter, Epstein is likely to find a place in the field for him.

If he doesn't turn out to be a good enough hitter, then he won't find a place for him.

Ruling him out at this point, without even knowing what kind of left fielder he would make, seems a little premature.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10766 on: January 03, 2013, 12:59:47 am »
Considering the potential benefits of three years of sensible eating and frequent visits to the gym, it's far too early to assume he'll still be 6'0'', 250 when he reaches the big leagues.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10767 on: January 03, 2013, 01:07:21 am »
Mark Bellhorn was a swiss army knife kind of a player: did a ton of things marginally well enough to be useful. Could play any position on the diamond (and actually wasn't that bad at 2B), minus catcher. Switch hit. During the year he got a decent amount of PA's for Boston, he posted great offensive numbers for a MI.

Manny Ramirez is one of the best hitters ever. On the all time OPS+ leaderboard, his name is in the grouping with Mays, Aaron, DiMaggio, Wagner, Robinson, etc.

Both players are awful comps for Vogelbach as to why his defense might play in LF under a Theo regime.

Both payers are excellent examples, however, to refute the claim that Theo is so obsessed with defense that Vogelbach could not play OF for the Cubs under Theo.  If those who have worked with Vogelbach are correct in believing he could play LF without hurting the team defensively, then his defense would be better than Ramirez', and Bellhorn's marginal at best defense was at a premium defensive position, yet Theo sought him out for a contending team.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10768 on: January 03, 2013, 01:10:52 am »
Actually, both are very good arguments.  The point being made is that if a player is a good enough hitter, Epstein is likely to find a place in the field for him.

If he doesn't turn out to be a good enough hitter, then he won't find a place for him.

Ruling him out at this point, without even knowing what kind of left fielder he would make, seems a little premature.

It is safe to say that if Vogelbach makes the majors he will do so because of his bat, not his base-running, his glove or his arm.  All I have been trying to say is that if his bat is good enough to get him there, neither his glove nor his speed are going to prevent him from playing, even for Theo, and even in LF.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10769 on: January 03, 2013, 07:18:10 am »
....The point being made is that if a player is a good enough hitter, Epstein is likely to find a place in the field for him.

If he doesn't turn out to be a good enough hitter, then he won't find a place for him.

Ruling him out at this point, without even knowing what kind of left fielder he would make, seems a little premature.

Exactimundo.  It's perhaps improbable that his defense will be close enough to average and his offense far enough above average to make it work.  But it's possible.  Maybe he will hit enough to make it work. 

Manny's net was so good that he was worth $20/year (before it was common), and to merit MVP discussion every year.  I don't think Vogelbach would need to hit at Manny's level to be at least useful.