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Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 203036 times)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10770 on: January 03, 2013, 08:17:57 am »
Has there been anyone other than a few Cubs fans who have suggested that Vogelbach stands a chance of playing LF at the major league level?  Because everything I've read from the typical national prospect guys is that he's first base only.  And some (Keith Law specifically off the top of my head) think that anything other than DH may be a stretch.  This all sounds like Cubs fans not having realistic expectations for their own prospects to me.

If it was that easy to move a surprisingly athletic big guy to LF, the Tigers would have done it last year with Fielder or Cabrera...because Cabrera is pretty awful at third.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10771 on: January 03, 2013, 08:34:08 am »
Agree with br.

Besides, even if LF for Vogelbach was more than just message board talk, Boise is still a long way from Chicago.  There are a whole lot of things that can happen (Vogelbach turning into the next Dopirak, Rizzo looking like a more attractive guy than Vogelbach to trade 3-4 years from now, Vogelbach being traded for a building block player, etc.) and a lot of time left before we even need to start discussing this.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2013, 11:49:11 am by JR »
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10772 on: January 03, 2013, 08:38:23 am »
Keith Law on Vogelbach, first from a chat right after he was drafted:

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Josh (Tampa)

What is the deal with Vogelbach? Is he stuck at 1b or DH for life? I saw a few mocks with him going 30-40. That seems high for a guy with no glove...
Klaw  (2:24 PM)

DH only. I mean, there's big, like Kevin Cron, and there's fat, like Vogelbach. That's just not a baseball body - he had to lose 30 pounds just to get back on the map this spring. But he can hit a baseball a long way.

And then from an interview on the View from the Bleachers Cubs blog at the end of the 2012 season:

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Q:  Some fans bring up Prince Fielder when talking about Dan Vogelbach’s chance to play first base.  I’ve always thought of Fielder as pretty agile for a such big guy which makes him a unique case.  Other than being fat guys who hit for a ton of power, are there any other similarities between the two? Is there any chance Vogelbach plays first base at the major league level?

Fielder’s a much better athlete than Vogelbach, even light on his feet considering his size, and Fielder’s not even a good first baseman. I can’t see Vogelbach playing any position but DH in the majors. He’s a one tool guy.

Kevin Goldstein doesn't come out and say he can't play LF, but he certainly doesn't sound optimistic about him doing anything other than hitting:

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First Base: Dan Vogelbach, Cubs
A second-round pick last year who signed for first-round money with a $1.6 million bonus, Vogelbach drew some Prince Fielder comparisons during his high school career in Florida, both for his monstrous power, as well has his physique. At just six feet tall and somewhere around 250 pounds, Vogelbach is the definition of a bat-only prospect, as he's a 20 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and a poor defender. While it's early, he's hit .432/.368/.773 in 10 Arizona League games, and he wouldn't have gotten that kind of bonus without scouts believing that the bat can play.

And I can't remember where in Tennessee JR lives, but I guess this could be him talking to Callis:

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Justin (Nashville): There have been some reports that Dan Vogelbach moves a lot better for a big guy than some scouts first believed. With Rizzo hopefully being the long term solution at 1B for the Cubs, how laughable/ridiculous is the notion that Vogelbach could play LF?

Jim Callis: I'll put it this way: I've never talked to a scout who thought Vogelbach had a chance to play left field. There's a better chance that he's a DH only than he's a left fielder. That said, kudos to him on a great year with the bat.

Vogelbach in LF isn't happening.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10773 on: January 03, 2013, 08:40:07 am »
Quote
And I can't remember where in Tennessee JR lives, but I guess this could be him talking to Callis:

Yep, that would indeed be JR talking to Callis.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10774 on: January 03, 2013, 09:43:53 am »
Quote from: craig on January 03, 2013, 07:18:10 am
Exactimundo.  It's perhaps improbable that his defense will be close enough to average and his offense far enough above average to make it work.  But it's possible.  Maybe he will hit enough to make it work.

Soriano is a defensive liability in LF, yet he has hit well enough that the Theocracy has been willing to keep him, despite his salary.  Yes, there apparently was some effort to move him this past summer, but also not such an aggressive effort for them to make it happen.  Soriano had an OPS+ of 121 in 2012, if Vogelbach hits that well, the Theocracy will likely be happy to have him there, particularly given the salary difference.  If he hits no better than the league average, he is not going to be getting playing time anywhere with the Cubs.

Quote from: brjones on January 03, 2013, 08:17:57 am
Has there been anyone other than a few Cubs fans who have suggested that Vogelbach stands a chance of playing LF at the major league level?

Yes.  The folks with the Cubs who have worked with him and who have performed internal scouting on him.  My understanding is they all believe he would be able to play LF in the majors without being a defensive liability.  Soriano is a defensive liability in LF.  Manny Ramirez was a defensive liability in LF.  And they were defensive liabilities who cost a great deal.


Quote from: brjones on January 03, 2013, 08:17:57 am
Because everything I've read from the typical national prospect guys is that he's first base only.

And the typical national prospect guys are basing that on his height and weight and nothing more.  Most would not have seen him in a single game, few would have seen him in any sort of physical drills to allow a meaningful judgement, and NONE would have seen him shag a single fly ball.  In other words, they do not know what they are talking about.

Quote from: brjones on January 03, 2013, 08:17:57 am
If it was that easy to move a surprisingly athletic big guy to LF, the Tigers would have done it last year with Fielder or Cabrera...because Cabrera is pretty awful at third.
Quote from: brjones on January 03, 2013, 08:38:23 am
Vogelbach in LF isn't happening.

And Cabrera is Cabrera. and Fielder is Fielder.  Each player is an individual, despite the fan desire to find comps and plug new players into earlier defined performance patterns.  Size may be a factor in determining someone's potential performance, but it is a long way from the only one, and the others are going to be best known by those who work directly with him and who actually directly scout him... meaning Cub scouts and management.

If they start to say they believe Vogelbach simply can't play LF at the major league level, at a time when Rizzo's performance would appear to create a strong incentive to at least leave that option open, then I will have no reservations about agreeing with those saying Vogelbach should not be considered as a possible LFer.  But my understanding is that has not happened,, and in fact Cub management believes Vogelbach could play LF.

Quote from: JR on January 03, 2013, 08:34:08 am
Besides, even if LF for Vogelbach was more than just message board talk, Boise is still a long way from Chicago.  There (is) a lot of time left before we even need to start discussing this.

I didn't know there was any time we NEED to start discussing this... but on a message board where folks here began discussing in late August which specific prospect the Cubs should draft in June of 2013, before the draft position was set or the Theocracy could evaluate 2013 performances on the field, it would not seem particularly premature.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10775 on: January 03, 2013, 11:03:51 am »
As a fan of a team who hasn't often had much for middle-of-the-order hitting, it's hard for me not to be interested in a guy who has the makings of possibly becoming a good middle-of-the-order hitter.  This summer Vogelbach had 1.000+ OPS, with .600+ slugging and .400+ OBP.  My guess is that so long as he's producing at the .900+ OPS level in the minors, the fascination is going to continue, and fans like me are going to continue to talk/dream about ways to get him into the lineup.  Discussion will continue as long as the production justifies, and will diminish if at some point performance no longer justifies the fascination. 
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10776 on: January 03, 2013, 11:20:52 am »
The real question for me is at what point the Cubs actually TRY him in LF, or, even before that, begin actually working to teach him how to play LF.

I suspect that they will not even being working with him on OF play until after the 2013 season, and even then only if he is doing at the upper end of performance range at the plate.

My guess is that they want to have him do well at the plate in full season ball, without any additional distractions such as learning a new position, before they look at even starting instruction on OF play.

So best case scenario might be a strong early performance in Peoria (since I doubt he would look good enough in spring training to start in Daytona), and a mid-season promotion to Daytona, with a good performance there.

If that happens, I suspect they might start giving him some instruction on OF play at the vend of the 2013 season, or immediately afterward, with the possibility of getting him some actual work there in the Arizona Fall League, with a real look at him there in 2014 spring training and then perhaps splitting time there in the 2014 season, with the Cubs taking an extended look at him in the minors in LF in 2015 in AA or AAA.  My guess is that the earliest a Cub manager will have any chance of deciding to use Vogelbach in a regular season game in the outfield would be September of 2015.... but it sure would be nice to have the sort of "problem" the Giants had with both McCovey and Cepeda on the roster at the same time.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10777 on: January 03, 2013, 01:02:37 pm »
If Vogelbach has any brains, he is probably working out in the outfield shagging flies already.  But as has been said before, there is no reason for the Cubs to be worrying about something that will not take place before late 2016 at the earliest.  Some scouts have said that Vogelbach has the potential to be a .300+ , 30+HR, 100+ RBI hitter.  If, at the time he is ready to come up, he is still considered to have that potential, they will find a way to get him in the lineup.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10778 on: January 03, 2013, 01:47:18 pm »
Quote from: davep on January 03, 2013, 01:02:37 pm
If Vogelbach has any brains, he is probably working out in the outfield shagging flies already.  But as has been said before, there is no reason for the Cubs to be worrying about something that will not take place before late 2016 at the earliest.  Some scouts have said that Vogelbach has the potential to be a .300+ , 30+HR, 100+ RBI hitter.  If, at the time he is ready to come up, he is still considered to have that potential, they will find a way to get him in the lineup.

*If* he's going to hit .300/30HR, then he won't need to learn to play LF to get a job.  If you can hit like that, and your first team has you blocked, somebody else will be happy to trade for you and give you a job. 

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10779 on: January 03, 2013, 02:12:37 pm »
Quote from: davep link=topic=59.msg111601#msg111601 date[quote author=davep on January 03, 2013, 12:56:43 am
Actually, both are very good arguments.  The point being made is that if a player is a good enough hitter, Epstein is likely to find a place in the field for him.

If he doesn't turn out to be a good enough hitter, then he won't find a place for him.

When the standard for "good enough hitter" is Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera, that should tell you something. Bellhorn's defense was fine for 2b. He's not a good example.

Put it this way: I'm not ruling out Vogelbach's ability to surprise just like I'm not ruling out my ability to win the lotto. Theoretically, anything is possible. That said, I'm also not dumping all my savings into Powerball tickets.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10780 on: January 03, 2013, 02:22:59 pm »
Vogelbach's defensive skill at 1B is an important factor.  If he's decent defensively at 1B and has middle-of-the-order ML offensive ability, he will be a valuable commodity.
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10781 on: January 03, 2013, 02:26:47 pm »
Since we had this conversation this morning, I thought I'd ask Keith Law about Vogelbach today in his chat.  He answered:

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Brian (Atlanta)
Is there a scout, front office member, executive, or analyst anywhere in baseball that seriously thinks Dan Vogelbach could ever play anywhere but 1B or DH in the majors? Because many Cubs fans expect a shift to LF is in his future, and that just seems silly.

Klaw  (1:30 PM)
I don't even think he can play first. Any fan who thinks he can play left field is living in an alternate reality.

So there you have it.  Rationalize it any way you want...you can believe that he's not qualified to make that judgment because he's not in the Cubs organization or because he hasn't seen Vogelbach personally many times if that makes you feel better.  But that's a pretty strong statement from one of the top 3 or 4 national prospect evaluators (who is held in high enough regard by at least one MLB front office that he had an offer to be in charge of rebuilding their farm system several months ago, by the way).
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10782 on: January 03, 2013, 02:28:02 pm »
Quote from: Jes Beard on January 03, 2013, 01:10:52 am
It is safe to say that if Vogelbach makes the majors he will do so because of his bat, not his base-running, his glove or his arm.  All I have been trying to say is that if his bat is good enough to get him there, neither his glove nor his speed are going to prevent him from playing, even for Theo, and even in LF.

There's a significant difference between having a bat good enough to get you to the bigs, and having a bat good enough to hide awful defense at 1B or LF.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10783 on: January 03, 2013, 02:31:22 pm »
On a different subject, interesting comments from Hoyer on SiriusXM this morning...at least they seem interesting through the second- and third-hand sources:

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This morning, Hoyer was on MLBN Radio with Jim Memolo and Todd Hollandsworth, discussing a range of topics nicely summarized by BN’er Jacob here. A fair bit of it is what you’d expect to hear – and things we’ve heard before – but my ears (well, eyes, as I’m going off of the recap for now) perked up when the Cubs’ center field situation came up. Although Hoyer wouldn’t comment on Michael Bourn, specifically, he did say that the Cubs were looking to improve in center field in both the short term and long term, and commented that the Cubs were considering a position player on a similar length deal as Edwin Jackson (four years). There’s a fair bit of play there, and it all depends on *exactly* how he said it, but, given the current free agent market, he’d pretty much have to be talking about Bourn. Either Hoyer is fine with admitting that (I doubt it), or there was a little more nuance in what he said (speaking generally about positional free agents, maybe?). I’d love to hear an audio replay on this, but I haven’t been able to find one.

Speaking of the outfield, Hoyer spoke about how Nate Schierholtz fits into the mix, confirming what we’ve all expected: as things are formulated “right now,” Schierholtz will be playing primarily in right field, probably as part of a platoon. From there, it’s obvious that David DeJesus plays in center, and Alfonso Soriano plays in left. But, if the Cubs were to add a center fielder – I mean, Hoyer confirmed that the Cubs would like to add a center fielder in both the short term and long term – Schierholtz takes on more of a 4th outfielder role.

*OR* more likely, as I’ve been saying all along, the Cubs’ tentative plan has been to (1) add an undervalued player like Schierholtz and take advantage of platoons, (2) trade either Soriano or DeJesus (more likely Soriano), and (3) add a center fielder. Then you’ve got an outfield of Soriano or DeJesus in left, new guy in center, and Schierholtz platoon in right. It’s as effective, if not more so, than last year, and it might not be any more expensive. Throw in the fact that you just got younger and picked up an asset or two in trade, and it’s the perfect series of moves.

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/01/03/jed-hoyer-speaks-free-agents-and-future-competitiveness-outfield-configuration-bourn-garza/

The messageboard recap referenced in the first line:

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- As you can expect, saying that the two Scotts were pretty much flyers and Jackson is a “stabilizer.” He’s durable and came up too early. With his athleticism and age, he still has upside.
- “Can’t build it (a franchise) up in one year.” Edwin fit into our plans and was on the market now, so we got him.
- With length of the deal as the question about position players, he said the Cubs are looking at a position player with a ‘similar type of deal’ (As EJax (Michael Bourn?)).
- When asked directly about Bourn – “Can’t comment on individual free agents.” “Center field is a position both short term and long term that we’ll be looking to improve.”
- Said that they’re pretty much done adding pitching, now will focus on position players.
- Looking to mold after the A’s/Orioles and build while contending. Won’t look past any one year, but will focus on making moves that improve the future. Won’t make moves that hurt the future for 2013.
- Asked where he wants to see improvement – Wants to really draw out AB’s and see middle relievers in the 6th and 7th innings. That’s how you “really beat teams up.” Wants teams to feel like it’s a battle to face the Cubs.
- Asked how close prospects are too getting a look this year – “most talented minor leaguers won’t be read for a look.” “organization did a lot of talent over the course of the year.”

If anyone has a SiriusXM subscription and has a way to listen to an archived version of this, I'd like to know the tone of the whole exchange about CF/Bourn/similar contract to Jackson/still looking at position players.  I wonder if he was actually hinting that something is in the works, or if he's talking more generically. 
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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10784 on: January 03, 2013, 02:33:25 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on January 03, 2013, 02:28:02 pm
There's a significant difference between having a bat good enough to get you to the bigs, and having a bat good enough to hide awful defense at 1B or LF.

By the way, don't forget about when Yonder Alonso and Todd Hundley were tried in LF.  Those were completely embarrassing experiments, and that just goes to show you can't just stick anyone in LF.  You guys keep bringing up Manny, but he didn't embarrass himself to that level.

I don't care if you do hit .300/30/100, a major league team isn't going to keep sticking you out in LF if they embarrass themselves like that.
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