Bleacher Bums Forum

I'd be all over Porcello. That defense kills him.

I haven't heard what we'd be sending to Detroit.

Can I drive the car delivering ol' Case?

I'll even throw in some new luggage.

I don't think Porcello's peripherals are all that great.  He doesn't strike anyone out, and that's been the case for a while.  If you don't strike people out, you're going to prone to give up base hits.

I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him either, but you're probably talking about a Jason Marquis type guy or very slightly better.  Really I kind of wish we could pursue someone with a little more upside.

Yeah but his K's haven't improved that much in four years.  Some guys just don't improve that much, even if they do debut young.  We had the same thing with Volstad this year.  He was young when he debuted, but he never improved any in four years and took a big nosedive this year.  Jason Marquis is another guy who's like that. 

And really even if Porcello was a rookie this year, I wouldn't be that impressed with 5.5 K's per 9 IP and a 4.50 ERA.  He'd honestly sound like a future middle of the road starting pitcher to me if this was his rookie year, which is basically what I think he's destined to be.  He certainly isn't looking like a future #1 or #2 guy at this point. 

I mean if we swing a deal for him, I'll go along with it and see what happens.  But a little like what we went through with Volstad coming into the season, I certainly wouldn't have any high expectations for him at all (although I certainly wouldn't expect him to completely tank like Volstad did either). 

Yeah, the K/9 thing is a little bit of a red flag.  Still, he's a ground ball pitcher, and that's trending in the right direction (2.36 GB/FB this year, after 1.57 and 1.73 in the previous two seasons) and ground ball pitchers can succeed with lower strikeout rates, especially if they have a good defense behind them. 

There's enough there that he's really intriguing.  I mean, I wouldn't give up a ton for him...but a 23 year old is a 23 year old, and BA had him as a really good prospect a few years ago.  Unless the alternative is Greinke (or maybe Sanchez or Jackson), I'm not sure the Cubs are going to be able to do better for a decent price this offseason.

I was looking at Fangraphs:

That 53.2% ground ball rate was 11th in baseball among qualified pitchers last year, though.

I wonder why they decide to not include line drives as a fly ball when they do GB/FB stats.