Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 203036 times)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9900 on: November 15, 2012, 10:37:13 pm »
Porcello's FB velo was up 2 mph last year. His FIP was high 3's. He's still just 23 and is already eating significant innings at league average production rates. I'd love a Porcello acquisition.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9901 on: November 15, 2012, 10:52:31 pm »
I wonder what the Tigers would want for him.  Not to keep comparing him to Volstad, but Porcello's situation is pretty similar to what Volstad's was before last year. Porcello is one year younger, more hyped as a prospect, and probably has a better clubhouse reputation than Volstad did.  Still, Volstad's career path entering 2012 is pretty similar to Porcello's, and the Marlins didn't require much of anything for them to give up Volstad. 

Maybe if the Cubs have completely soured on Brett Jackson, this might be the kind of trade where you get value for him, for instance.  Or maybe the Tigers would do something along the lines of Trey McNutt or someone like that.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2012, 10:54:16 pm by JR »

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9902 on: November 16, 2012, 12:11:17 am »
There has been a lot of speculation on other boards about who the Cubs would give up for Porcello.  I certainly would not give up either Barney or Marmol, and I see no reason why the administration would be so soured on Jackson that they would trade him for a mediocre pitcher like Porcello.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9903 on: November 16, 2012, 05:19:35 am »
Cost controlled innings eaters at league avg performance is nothing to thumb your nose at. Porcello is likely more than that. I'd gladly deal Marmol for him. A well paid closer we do not need, and I think Porcello would be quite a bit of value to get in return.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9904 on: November 16, 2012, 06:27:09 am »
Dioner Navarro isnt worth a dime.

Hopefully they let Welly catch all he can handle and Navarro is just the backup.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9905 on: November 16, 2012, 06:48:11 am »
I wouldn't give much of anything for Porcello, either. The Volstad comps are pretty accurate.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9906 on: November 16, 2012, 07:03:41 am »
Maybe Volstad's shrink could have a few sessions with Porcello.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9907 on: November 16, 2012, 09:05:15 am »
A couple of "Read Into It What You Will" tables.

First one here, are pitchers among the Top 25 in the league in GB% between 2011-12 and with K/9 IP rates under 6.0.

 
NameTeamGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FB K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB ERA
Tim HudsonBraves
2.25
18.90%
56.10%
25.00%
6.50%
8.50%
          5.94           2.38           0.59           2.50           3.40
Matt HarrisonRangers
1.53
20.20%
48.30%
31.50%
11.20%
8.90%
          5.84           2.62           0.79           2.23           3.34
Rick PorcelloTigers
2.01
21.60%
52.30%
26.10%
12.80%
10.60%
          5.30           2.26           0.85           2.34           4.67
Jake WestbrookCardinals
2.68
19.30%
58.80%
21.90%
8.10%
10.80%
          5.28           3.14           0.70           1.68           4.32
Derek Lowe- - -
2.71
19.10%
59.10%
21.80%
5.30%
9.70%
          5.24           3.30           0.66           1.59           5.08
Kevin CorreiaPirates
1.49
19.10%
48.50%
32.50%
8.40%
12.30%
          4.60           2.35           1.22           1.95           4.49

Hudson and Harrison both have higher K rates and lower HR rates than Porcello, so it makes sense that they'd be having more success than him.  Porcello is actually second on this list in most HR/9 IP behind Correia, so that obviously isn't helping him out.

Seems like Westbrook might be a decent comp for what Porcello's ceiling could be, though.  Westbrook walks a few more guys and gives up a few less homers. 

Second table shows roughly the same info for just 2012.


 
NameTeamGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FBK/9BB/9HR/9K/BBERA
Ross DetwilerNationals
1.55
16.40%
50.80%
32.80%
9.60%
9.00%
          5.75           2.85           0.82           2.02           3.40
Luis MendozaRoyals
1.92
20.80%
52.10%
27.10%
10.60%
10.60%
          5.64           3.20           0.81           1.76           4.23
Jake WestbrookCardinals
2.77
20.80%
58.10%
21.00%
8.30%
10.00%
          5.46           2.68           0.62           2.04           3.97
Rick PorcelloTigers
2.36
24.20%
53.20%
22.60%
15.80%
11.50%
          5.46           2.25           0.82           2.43           4.59
Tim HudsonBraves
2.2
19.30%
55.50%
25.20%
4.10%
8.30%
          5.13           2.41           0.60           2.13           3.62
Scott DiamondTwins
2.09
21.00%
53.40%
25.60%
4.00%
11.40%
          4.68           1.61           0.88           2.90           3.54
Kevin CorreiaPirates
1.76
19.60%
51.20%
29.10%
5.40%
12.00%
          4.68           2.42           1.05           1.93           4.21
Clayton RichardPadres
1.93
18.40%
53.80%
27.80%
5.80%
15.00%
          4.40           1.73           1.28           2.55           3.99
Henderson AlvarezBlue Jays
2.34
18.70%
57.00%
24.30%
8.10%
18.10%
          3.80           2.59           1.39           1.46           4.85

Just again, it seems like Westbrook is your best case scenario for what Porcello could become.  And obviously we'd all be pretty happy with a pitcher as effective as Westbrook in the rotation, so maybe Porcello's worth more of a flier than I gave him credit for last night.

The one thing that stands out as separating Porcello in that second table from Westbrook or Hudson is HR rate.  Porcello is a 0.8 while Westbrook and Hudson are at 0.6.  Not sure if that's going to change much going from Comerica to Wrigley either.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9908 on: November 16, 2012, 09:20:08 am »
I wouldn't give much of anything for Porcello, either. The Volstad comps are pretty accurate.

I'm sure Theo is talking FA and trade regarding lots and lots of unexceptional pitchers.  So not sure how likely it is that Porcello is any more serious than Villanueva or Haren or Liriano or Jackson or who knows who else. 

I assume analysis is a blend of scouting and stats.  The Volstad comp is obviously striking:  tall, young, low K's, better FIP than actual ERA's, ground ball-oriented but pretty high-HR anyway, and haven't shown much improvement. 

If K/BB/HR are the big three fundamentals for a pitcher, Volstad appears to be poor in two of them (K and HR), and favorable in only one (BB). 

But, each is individual, and some guys plateau for a while and then take a step forward.  If you take shots on guys like Volstad, sooner or later one of them might work out well, even if Volstad didn't. 

I wonder if Detroit is shopping him because they expect meaningful value for him?  Or is it because they want to upgrade their rotation and they're going to replace him anyway, whether with a more promising prospect or a FA or via trade?  Or is it just a budget thing; they've got a lot of expensive stars and paying $3-4.5 million for a consistently below-average starter just doesn't fit? 

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9909 on: November 16, 2012, 09:27:47 am »
I'd give up Marmol for Porcello in a heartbeat, but I'd be very surprised if the Tigers would do that deal.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9910 on: November 16, 2012, 09:28:45 am »
This reminds me of the days when I used to go looking for bargains on Maxwell St.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9911 on: November 16, 2012, 09:39:14 am »
P2 on the corner of Maxwell and Halsted there is now a Jamba Juice. Where once a man could get a bone-in pork chop sandwich and a grape nehi soda for Sunday breakfast to fortify his soul for buying lots and lots of tube socks, now carrot juice is available. (Jim's Original has been relocated as has the entire market -- it's now a place for remarkable Mexican food http://www.greatermidwestfoodways.com/data/files/images/events/2011/MidwestEats/MaxwellStreetMarketGuide2011-12.pdf)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9912 on: November 16, 2012, 11:01:01 am »
On Halsted, just north of Maxwell Street there was a second floor store called Cynofski's.  They sold second hand clothing, and they had the contract to sell the clothing that came of the dummies at Marshall Fields and the other downtown stores.  They were wadded up in a bin, and looked like they went through the war, and you could have your pick for 50 cents.  Their guarantee was that every item would clean up perfectly, and if there was a stain that wouldn't wash out, you just brought it back for a refund, no questions asked.

And the Sloppy Joe's stand east of Halsted on Maxwell was better than Jim's Original.

My mother and her sisters would shop there, and would talk to each other in Dutch so the predominately Jewish shopkeepers wouldn't understand what they were saying (the shopkeepers talked Yidish among themselves for the same reason).  One day her sister was about to purchase something, and my mother said to her, "let's try across the street first.  This guy looks like a crook".  When the Jewish shopkeeper replied in perfect Dutch (Madam, he is even less honest than I am"  my mother almost died.  It hadn't occurred to her that Jewish shopkeepers could have immigrated from Holland.

She was so embarrassed, she didn't go back to Maxwell Street for a couple of months.  Even today, almost 80 years later, she blushes if you can get her to tell the story.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9913 on: November 16, 2012, 11:08:44 am »
I don't understand a word of Dutch.  And I've pretty well avoided learning Yiddish despite hearing a lot of it from my parents and in-laws.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #9914 on: November 16, 2012, 11:10:25 am »
I have been called both a shlamazel and a shlemiel, and I'm still not sure what the difference is.