Bleacher Bums Forum

In the recent Boston radio interview, Theo followed his discussion about the value of the Cubs second round pick--under the new cba--with a discussion of when giving up a high pick might be worth doing depending on the value of the free agent (without mentioning any names of course).

My impression is that he might sign a guy like Bourn if the value was right for the Cubs.

Off-season timing is significant.  Nationals were interested in Bourn at the beginning of the off-season but instead traded for a lesser player, Denard Span.  Span, one year younger than Bourn, is kind of a similar offensive player--aside from the speed factor--and a lesser defensive player.  Nats control Span for three seasons at about $20 total.  But, Nats had to give up their top pitching prospect, Alex Meyer, who has more value than the second round pick Cubs would have to give up for Bourn.  At the time that Nats traded for Span, Bourn's asking price was more than the 5/75 deal that Upton got from the Braves.

Seems likely that Bourn will end up getting less than $75.   What if Cubs could sign him for the 4/52 Edwin Jackson deal?   Is that the kind of value that Theo might think worth giving up the second round pick?  Or, is Theo thinking three years tops, if that?

I don't see a problem with Bourn blocking B. Jackson.  All the other current Cubs OFers, including the high and mid-level minors, are expendable.  Don't see a problem finding two OF spots for the next few years.  Indeed, if you can get sufficient offense, the more legit defensive CFers in the OF the better. 

Of course, Boras tends to pull a rabbit out of a hit at the last minute, so likely that the Bourn market does not bottom out all that much.  Even possible that Bourn returns to the Braves.   

In the recent Boston radio interview, Theo followed his discussion about the value of the Cubs second round pick--under the new cba--with a discussion of when giving up a high pick might be worth doing depending on the value of the free agent (without mentioning any names of course)....  Of course, Boras tends to pull a rabbit out of a hit at the last minute, so likely that the Bourn market does not bottom out all that much. 

Assuming that the comp pick depresses Bourn's value by several million, how long would he have to wait before teams were no longer required to give up a comp pick for signing him?  Might not it be worthwhile to Bourn and Boras to sit out the first couple of months of 2013 and perhaps sign in June if that would be when a FA could sign without a comp pick coming into the picture?

I don't think there's any specified date when LaRoche, Bourn, Lohse or Soriano could sign without compensation to their former team, other than it's likely that none would receive a qualifying offer next winter if they sat out the 2013 season. If those are in fact the rules, they'd all be better off taking the best contract offer the can get for 2013, perhaps with the understanding that they'll be traded this year so they won't be subject to qualifying offers next year.

Didn't Theo or Hoyer indicate that we're pretty much done with pitching this offseason? 

Theo on the Cubs' current and future "core" players, from the Boston Globe.

Theo Epstein took the long-range view when he took over as president of the Cubs more than a year ago. He preferred an all-out gutting and rebuilding, as opposed to the Dodgers’ approach of buying up the best players.

Epstein, who will host his Hot Stove Cool Music round table Friday at Fenway Park, has surprised some people, however, not only by bidding for Anibal Sanchez but by signing Edwin Jackson to a four-year deal. Most people thought Epstein would hold off on big expenditures until the time was right.

Does it mean Epstein believes the Cubs aren’t as far off as he originally thought?

“We’re certainly farther along than we were last year at this time,” said Epstein. “When we got here, we identified one core player [Starlin Castro] and now we can look around and see Anthony Rizzo, Darwin Barney, Jeff Samardzija , and others. We do have more positional prospects than pitchers, so we felt Jackson will be with us for many years to come.”

Epstein is hoping his top prospects — namely outfielders Jorge Soler (a Cuban defector), Brett Jackson, and Albert Almora , shortstop Javier Baez , and pitcher Arodys Vizcaino — will all be in the majors together by 2015. First baseman Rizzo is already there.

This seems strange...Baltimore writer says the Cubs are trying to get Porcello from the Tigers, and they're trying to get the Orioles involved to send Hardy to Detroit.  Doesn't really seem to make that much sense for anyone, but we'll see.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/01/sifting-through-more-rumors.html

Yeah, hard to see pieces fitting.  Has Detroit done anything about their bullpen, and might they have some limited interest in Marmol if price is modest?  I can imagine a call about Marmol; Cubs ask for Porcello Detroit says too much, but how about prospect X; Cubs say too little, no we don't like him.  I could also see Detroit wanting to talk to Baltimore about Hardy, with Baltimore having some interest in Porcello but thinking he's way too little.  But hard to see how all three could fit. 

It's kind of dopey to talk about Garza in trades, isn't it?  Who wants to pay full price for a dude whose arm might be shot?  And why should Hoyer talk about trading him for half price?  It makes no sense. 

I did think the Soto trade was interesting.  When Brigham ended up unhealthy, the Cubs got Loux.  I wonder whether there might be some conditional, contingency things with Garza discussions?  Include PTBNL:  If Garza is and stays healthy, pick from this "A" group.  If he ends up hurt, get somebody from this "C" group?  I think sounds too complicated. 

So Curt, you'd like to trade Garza to Baltimore for Hardy.  Then trade Hardy and Marmol to Detroit for Castellanos and Porcello?  Or something with that core, and whatever additional prospects added to level the values?  Might be fun, if our guys believe in Castellanos.