Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 203066 times)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10020 on: November 27, 2012, 10:02:25 pm »
Pretty much, Baker has a lot more potential to bring in a Maholm type return than Feldman, IMHO.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10021 on: November 27, 2012, 10:28:59 pm »
I'd agree that Baker is clearly a better pitcher than Maholm or Feldman if he come back healthy, but Maholm and Feldman are a lot closer than you think.

Maholm WAR 1.4, 1.8, 2.8, 3.2, 1.9, 1.9.  His xFIP in 2011 4.03, FIP 3.78.  Career K/9 5.71, BB/9 2.94. 
Feldman WAR 0.9, 3.5, 1.3, 0.3, 2.3.  His xFIP in 2012 3.87, FIP 3.81.  Career K/9 5.36, BB/9 3.12. 
Baker    WAR 1.1, 0.7, 2.9, 3.5, 3.5, 2.6, 2.8  xFIP in 2011 3.61, FIP 3.45.  Career k/9 7.23, BB/9 2.10

Maholm looks a lot more like Feldman prior to coming to the Cubs than he looks like Baker.  What was the board reaction when the Cubs signed Maholm?




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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10022 on: November 27, 2012, 10:33:55 pm »
Maholm looks a lot more like Feldman prior to coming to the Cubs than he looks like Baker.  What was the board reaction when the Cubs signed Maholm?

Pretty positive reaction actually . . .

1 year, $4.25 million for Maholm with a $6.5 million club option for 2013.  Not bad at all.
I'd definitely agree with that.  I'm a little surprised he couldn't do better.
Happy we got him...I watched him pitch in HS, in college, and now he's a Cub...nice!
Wow, that's a club friendly deal.  I'm surprised he couldn't get a better deal. 
Maholm's contract will look even better come July.

If his ERA is as glossy as it was last year, at worst, they could get a mid-level prospect for him.

I'm all for Wells becoming a situational righty once the rotation takes shape.

I haven't looked at the FA market as far as relievers but I assume there is some value on the board as far as a setup guy.



That Maholm deal is a steal.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2012, 10:42:49 pm by JR »

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10023 on: November 27, 2012, 10:34:54 pm »
BTW nice call by UK there . . .

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10024 on: November 27, 2012, 10:38:57 pm »
Actually the Maholm deal was a better deal for the Cubs than Feldman.  $4.25M for Maholm last year with a club option compared to 1 year, $6M without an option for Feldman.

Really Maholm probably should look for a new agent.  He should have done a lot better.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10025 on: November 27, 2012, 10:54:02 pm »
I guess I remembered wrong, I thought it was more negative or indifferent.  My point still stands though, if Baker comes back healthy he's far superior to Maholm or Feldman.  Feldman and Maholm are pretty close.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10026 on: November 28, 2012, 05:15:02 am »
It's silly to say people are complaining because Theo is doing what he said to do, because the guys he's bringing in - while they may nominally fit the model - aren't good baseball players by and large.  They're space fillers so we can field a team for the next 100-loss season.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10027 on: November 28, 2012, 08:18:32 am »
Theo said he'd prioritize low-walk guys, and he's done that.  All of the pitchers they've picked up, whether Camp or Volstad or Germano or Baker or Feldman or Maholm, they've all had low walk rates. 

Really good pitchers aren't available for modest money and short commitments.  If a guy was a low-walk guy and had good stuff and anti-HR besides, he'd not be available at garage sale prices.  Obviously low-walk low-HR good-stuff pitchers aren't available for $6/1 and aren't getting traded for Carlos Zambrano. 

For Theo, it appears that the low-walks seems to be priority, and he's willing to compromise stuff and HR's-allowed in order to get that.  I think Hendry tended to prioritize stuff more, and was willing to bear with more walks .  I suspect that a pitcher with good stuff and iffy walks, there's the perception of more upside in the event that the control improves. 

Hopefully days will come eventually where we have some prospects with both low-walk control, and good-K anti-HR stuff besides.  And hopefully days will come where the rest of the roster is big-league enough so that it could both make sense for the Cubs to pay the price for a good free agent, and make sense for a good free agent to actually consider the Cubs.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10028 on: November 28, 2012, 08:34:44 am »
Interesting to wonder how that will play for the draft.  With teenagers, obviously there is a lot of scouting projection involved, both for whether the guy will end up throwing hard, and for whether he'll have control.  But this draft was interesting in that we took Blackburn in the first and then Underwood shortly thereafter in the second.  Blackburn came with and has since been reported as a very polished control-type pitcher, but with very fringy stuff.  Underwood seemed to come with more stuff and much less control.  My guess is there was probably a healthy balance of projection and scouting in both picks.  They projected that Underwood could throw harder more consistently, and that Underwood might someday be able to pitch with control.  They knew that Blackburn showed good control, but projected that he'd be able to throw with good velocity and good stuff.  There were reports that Blackburn had been throwing a lot of 90's in the late spring, and was flashing 92-93 maybe even 94 in some tryout camps.  Perhaps the Cubs scouted/projected that that was real, and that he'd be able to sustain that and perhaps become more consistent with that, or get even faster, in due time.  The summer and fall reports suggested otherwise, of course, suggesting that he consistently lived in the upper/mid 80's instead.  Perhaps that's all exactly what they expected, but my guess is they were probably disappointed by what they saw.  Probably just a scouting mistake there.  Or, perhaps that's just a brief sample for a teenager, and in a year or two or three he will be maturing physically and working regularly in the 90-93 range, and occasionally touching 95 or 96?  If so, maybe he'll end up being all that they hoped for when they drafted him after all.  But an interesting case, I think, where the stuff that Blackburn was flashing in Mesa was certainly less stuff-wise than what Hendry would have spent a sandwich pick on  back when he was draft boss. 

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10029 on: November 28, 2012, 10:35:24 am »
As was said above, guys with good stuff and good command go quickly.  That applies to the draft as well as free agency.  As they move down in the draft rounds, it becomes more reasonable to take some guys with good stuff/bad control in the hopes that a few will solve their command problems.


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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10030 on: November 28, 2012, 12:12:48 pm »
Quote from: Jed Hoyer
"I think last year, if you look inside his numbers, the numbers were not what he probably hoped, but they were pretty misleading. If you look at his ratios and different underlying numbers, he's one of the most unlucky pitchers in the game last year. While it wasn't his best year, it certainly wasn't nearly as bad as the ERA on the page says it was."

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"We always liked his stuff," Hoyer said. "He gets ground balls, he's got a really good walk-to-strikeout ratio and he's pitched in a very difficult environment. He pitched in the American League and pitched in Texas and that's hard. We felt he was a guy, given his stuff, given his age and given the ability to come to the National League and not pitch in Texas, we felt it was a great opportunity for us to add a quality arm."

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10031 on: November 28, 2012, 12:19:19 pm »
Can anyone translate this?
No...even after reading it twice...

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10032 on: November 28, 2012, 12:55:37 pm »
Casey Coleman has been designated for assignment to make room for Feldman.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10033 on: November 28, 2012, 01:11:42 pm »
As far as bringing in a swing man or potential #6 or #7 starters go, I wonder if Theo will bring in pitchers with the promise of them "competing" with Travis Wood for the #5 starter spot. 

I don't think there's a dime's worth of difference between Feldman and Wood, and I really think Wood is probably a little better bet to be productive than Feldman next year.

Still, we really need to bring in some possibilities for backup starting pitchers.  The difference between 100 losses and 120 losses may not matter to some fans, but I don't think Theo wants us trotting out complete embarrassments like Coleman or Belken next season if we have holes in the rotation.  They'll probably want a little bit better depth in starting pitching than we had this past season.

Pretty much, Samardzija, Garza, Baker, and Feldman are safely in the rotation, so unless the Theocracy is satisfied with Brooks Raley and Nick Struck starting games for us next year, you have to imagine Travis Wood will at least get some veteran competition in camp next spring.

I think this is a very good point.  Samardz, Garza, Baker, Feldman, and Wood might prove to be a pretty respectable rotation.  But is our 6th guy currently Belken/Raley/Coleman/Rusin/Germano?  I've got to assume they aren't finished with rotation pickups.  Certainly those 5 might end up all being somewhere from OK to good to perhaps excellent.  But we saw Wood pitch himself out of the rotation last spring, and look terrible at times.  Feldman may be persistently unlucky, but he's been a 5+ ERA guy in three of his four seasons as a starter.  Garza and Baker are both injured now, so expecting them to be ready for full rotation responsibilities is iffy.  And for Baker being able to pitch is one thing; being able to pitch well is another.  AFter surgery guys aren't always as good as they were before, and he wasn't so great that he can afford a very substantial reduction in efficiency.  And of course there is the possiblity of trade, sooner (Garza?) or later. 

So it sure seems to me that Hoyer shouldn't be done yet, and that adding another one or two Feldman/Baker type guys, if not better, could still make a lot of sense.   

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10034 on: November 28, 2012, 01:42:01 pm »
But is our 6th guy currently Belken/Raley/Coleman/Rusin/Germano? 

Germano is gone.  Don't know if any of the others are as well.