Bleacher Bums Forum

The last thing I want is for the 2013 Cubs to "surprise some people" by being a good deal better than expected, causing them to become buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline.  That would be the best way to undermine the game plan and to further delay building the foundation this team needs to become strong for several years.

I think the best thing for the Cubs is for them to be better than expected, because it most likely means Jackson adjustments work and he can now place the bat on the ball consistently, becoming a long term viable piece, and/or  Vizcaino shows he's the real deal.  Or someone else breaks through.  Or, even guys like Sappelt show they can be contributors.  Additional players that become part of the core would be invaluable, and a natural side effect of that would be an improved record.  Teams generally improve in increments, and the sooner our young guys start growing up, the sooner we'll approach annual playoff contention.

I just can't see Theo/Jed trading off young pieces because the Cubs are on the edge of playoff contention.  Do you think they would?  That would seem to go against their modus operandi and everything they've built or said they're going to do...Hendry, yes, i could see him doing that, but not the current administration.  That's not to say if Stanton or someone of that ilk with years of control came available, they wouldn't consider a move, but I can't see them doing it for some grizzle.  Even if we are contending for a playoff spot come July, I could still see the Cubs trading a guy like Feldman if they get a good long term piece(s) in a trade offer, and don't see the player being in the long term plans. 

One other thing is that it pretty much means Russell is the only lefty pegged for the pen so far, unless we're going to push Travis Wood there or give someone like Brooks Raley a shot.  One of Hoyer's goals for the offseason was to take pressure off of Russell, so unless there's another move to be made this offseason, it looks like it will come down to Wood, Raley, and perhaps Rusin.

I get the feeling Raley is pegged for a career as a reliever anyway, so we might be ready to start grooming him for that role.

A starting pitcher is much more valuable than a relief pitcher.  In the past, if a minor league pitcher had a high ceiling, most teams were going to begin grooming him as a starter, and move him to relief only if it becomes apparent that he can't fill that role.  Then they move him to relief to try to salvage what they can.

Recently, however, it seem that teams are looking at grooming some pitchers as relievers right from the start, especially if they envision him as a potential closer.  That seems to be the situation with the Cubs and Tony Zych and Kevin Rhoderick.  Another recent trend is the use of "piggybacking" for minor league pitchers.  When you pitch Archer for 4 innings and then Cabrera for 4 innings, you can move either one to starter or reliever with very little retraining.

Agree, JR, guys who are pitching minor-league relief are very rarely going to make it.  Rhoderic, Batista, I don't think those guys are of much interest.  I think there are few enough good pitching prospects that good-armed prospects pretty much always get a chance in the rotation.  If you're pitching relief in Daytona already, something's wrong.  Whether that is control ("oh, Mateo has closer velocity and a sharp slider, he's got two-pitch late-inning stuff...."), or arm (Beliveau wasn't viewed as much of a power guy...). 

Also agree with ray, that if the Cubs are surprisingly competitive that will be a good thing because it will manifest that some younger guys are working out.  If Castro, Samardzija, Wood, Castillo, Jackson, Barney, Stewart, and Wood show real improvement, we'll win more games, and if all of them just stay at their 2012 level or worse, we won't. 

I also agree with jes, though, that I don't want to abandon "procurement" mode.  I want to be flipping veterans for young talent, whether that be Feldman or DeJesus or Soriano or Garza or Baker or Marmol or Fuji or whomever.  So I don't want to give up on trading in July because we're 49-56, we're only seven games behind the wildcard, and we don't want to waive the white flag. 

But if DeJesus/Feldman/Soriano/Garza/Marmol/Fuji/Baker are playing well enough to command attention in the trade market, they'll probably help us to win some games, too.  So winning will not only correlate with good development news for young players, but will also correlate with good trade value news for our veterans. 

Agree, JR, guys who are pitching minor-league relief are very rarely going to make it.  Rhoderic, Batista, I don't think those guys are of much interest.  I think there are few enough good pitching prospects that good-armed prospects pretty much always get a chance in the rotation.  If you're pitching relief in Daytona already, something's wrong.  Whether that is control ("oh, Mateo has closer velocity and a sharp slider, he's got two-pitch late-inning stuff...."), or arm (Beliveau wasn't viewed as much of a power guy...). 

Also agree with ray, that if the Cubs are surprisingly competitive that will be a good thing because it will manifest that some younger guys are working out.  If Castro, Samardzija, Wood, Castillo, Jackson, Barney, Stewart, and Wood show real improvement, we'll win more games, and if all of them just stay at their 2012 level or worse, we won't. 

I also agree with jes, though, that I don't want to abandon "procurement" mode.  I want to be flipping veterans for young talent, whether that be Feldman or DeJesus or Soriano or Garza or Baker or Marmol or Fuji or whomever.  So I don't want to give up on trading in July because we're 49-56, we're only seven games behind the wildcard, and we don't want to waive the white flag. 

But if DeJesus/Feldman/Soriano/Garza/Marmol/Fuji/Baker are playing well enough to command attention in the trade market, they'll probably help us to win some games, too.  So winning will not only correlate with good development news for young players, but will also correlate with good trade value news for our veterans. 

Are we sure craig isn't really a politician, or planning to become one agreeing with everyone(even Jes) like that?  I'm getting a vision of the future........"From professor to president, featuring assassination attempts funded by congressmen for being too open minded; funded by kids for putting an end to lollipop stealing; funded by men, because how can they cheat in good conscious if the commander-in-chief doesn't; funded by women, because without cheating men and the ability to blackmail, they lose all the power they've accumulated in the last half century; funded by cardinals fans, because he banned baseball games in St. Louis, thereby forcing them to relocate to Los Angeles; and funded by the Dodgers and their fans because they had to declare bankruptcy and fold when a real team arrived and they couldn't afford their half billion dollar yearly payroll.  The Lifetime channel presents the story of a man affectionately nicknamed Swiss Cheese Crag, the US's 45th president, in our movie of the week.  Sponsored commercial free by the three-peat(a Pat Riley trademark, please send him a dollar for the honor of reading/hearing the phrase or risk lawsuit) Chicago Cubs."

Cubs sign Anibal Sanchez, 5 years, $75 million?  Wow, that was from out of nowhere.  Probably an overpay, but maybe awesome.

If it happens, that's not an overpay, that's a bargain. Think about what guys like Demp and Haren just got. Market value for wins is about 5 million. Anibal is easily a 3 win player and not so old so as to project heavy decline by contract's end.