Bleacher Bums Forum

It's going to take awhile...more patience and lots more Ls on the way there...

In the famous words of Sweet Brown...

Not just her...

Ain't NOBODY got time for dat.

The freedom to deal a pitcher as good as Garza can be in his last year before free agency -- and the possible draft compensation he'd create on departure -- could bring in some sorely needed talent to their rebuilding effort.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31806/overstocked-rotations-worth-watching

If Garza gets dealt during spring training, wouldn't that mean a team trading for him would be able to get a draft pick for him?  If that's the case, his trade value takes a pretty decent sized hit the moment the 2013 regular season starts, since you can't get a draft pick for him if he's traded during the season, so if he's healthy this spring, there's a big advantage in getting him dealt before the 2013 season begins. 

I wonder if all the stockpiling of starting pitching this offseason means that a healthy Garza's chances of being dealt in spring training are a lot higher than a lot of us are expecting.  It does seem weird that Feldman, Villenueva, and Baker would all sign with us if they weren't counting on rotation spots early in the season, after all.

The rumor is that Garza will get traded if healthy or the rehab isn't going well.  I'd like to just sign him to an extension if he's healthy though.  ABTY has everybody excited that the Cubs are going to make a large offer for Stanton.  I just don't see the Cubs being able to beat out Rangers, Cardinals, etc if the Marlins do want to trade him.

I'm not sure the Cubs should go after Stanton.  I just don't think the Cubs have the pieces to get it done without giving up Baez, at least one of the three primary building blocks already in the majors (Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija), and 2-3 other very good prospects (probably including Vizcaino).  This team has too many long term holes all over the field to give up most of their high ceiling players for one guy, even if that one guy is a monster like Stanton.  Just looking from a pure player value standpoint, Stanton is probably worth all that.  But there's a pretty big gap between Rizzo/Samardzija/Baez/Vizcaino and the guys who would be expected to take their places.

I don't know, maybe the Cubs could find a scenario where they involve a third team and can flip some combination of Garza/Marmol/Soriano for prospects to send to Miami with Baez+.  But I think JR is right that it's really all fantasy.  Because if push comes to shove, I think the Rangers have the depth to send Profar/Olt+ to get Stanton.  And Profar has more value to a cheap team like Miami than anyone the Cubs could send--even Castro.

JR:

FWIW, I've been following since just before the winter meetings they have been pretty reliable this offseason.  The Marlin guy does seem to be truly connected to the front office, but only shows up about once a week.  ABTY is a Kansas City sportswriter who hears things...so his info is legit, but a lot of times seems to be second or third hand.

JR: http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/forumdisplay.php?f=15

FWIW, I've been following since just before the winter meetings they have been pretty reliable this offseason.  The Marlin guy does seem to be truly connected to the front office, but only shows up about once a week.  ABTY is a Kansas City sportswriter who hears things...so his info is legit, but a lot of times seems to be second or third hand.

Thanks br.

Will be interesting how it goes with Garza. 
1.  I really don't imagine that a couple of good outings in Mesa is going to quite lay to rest all concerns about his arm, though.  Or if it does, I think the buyer is kinda foolish. 
2.  I'd love it to be that way.  If you could trade a full year of Garza, with the buyer thinking he's 100%, and with the buyer feeling like they can either extend him (in which case it's not "just" a rental; or at least get a comp pick back to neutralize one of the prospects lost), I think you could get a MUCH better package than you'll get as a two-month rental in July. 
3.  Whether it's in March or in July or a comp pick, whatever we get back will be a LOT less than had they moved Garza last winter, or last June.  I think they blew some opportunity there.  And I believe that if they don't trade him in March, they'll probably lose opportunity again.  The value just keeps going down, the longer you wait. 

4.  I have no idea what kind of crazy Stanton rumors these message-board guys are coming up with.  And while some pretty new KC writer or blogger or whatever is probably trying to hear things, and may be generous enough to pass on what he hears, I doubt that he's anywhere close to serious action.  Seems pretty remote/tenuous. 

5.  That said, I think there is considerable merit in discussing Baez trades.  He's got a ton of reputation, and fans and probably scouts/GM's anywhere would probably be really excited to add a mega-tools talent like that.  Maybe he could stand as the heart of a deal for a really good young player.  I'd consider that because we've got no talent to spend our money on, now or in the short future or at least knowably into the distant future.  If we traded for a really good young salary, paying for a star wouldn't hurt us.  Second, Theo could accelerate his rebuilding plan.  Having a talent starting from April 2013 on, rather than having Baez have his first Cubs April be in 2015, that would accelerate the timeline.  Third, Baez is all tools and projection, but he seems to be a wildly undisciplined hitter and he's been a terrible average/OBP/K/BB guy at Daytona and in AFL.  I've got to believe there's a very real chance that he's never going to be all that good, no matter how glorious the HR's are when he hits them.  Trading now could be a brilliant sell-high move.  Fourth, Castro is a good SS, and Baez is a SS.  His value to us as a hitting SS who plays 3B or 2B might be less than to another team where he could be a hitting SS who plays good SS.  Fifth, I wonder if Baez really fits as a Theo/Hoyer guy.  They seem to be oriented (to some degree) towards hard-working, grinding, overachiever, disciplined, highly coachable, good chemistry type guys.  Baez may in fact be all of those things, other than the discipline/grinder.  But it's possible that his approach, not only as a hitter but also as a person, might not be a great fit with the "culture" and attitude Theo ideally wants?  Anyway, I'd be pretty open to the idea of including him in trade discussions.