Author Topic: Cubs in '12  (Read 202982 times)

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10785 on: January 03, 2013, 02:44:25 pm »
If Law is right about Vogelbach, the Cubs should put their effort into developing his defensive skills at 1B.  It's concerning that Vogelbach's ceiling may be as a good DH.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10786 on: January 03, 2013, 02:49:52 pm »
Soriano is a defensive liability in LF,

Not actually true.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10787 on: January 03, 2013, 02:58:13 pm »
He certainly wasn't a liability in LF in 2012.  Fangraphs actually had him as the second best defensive LF in the majors in 2012.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10788 on: January 03, 2013, 03:07:02 pm »
Keep in mind that creators of both Fangraphs' and Baseball Reference's defensive stats have said that exaggerated shifts can really throw off their metrics.  Soriano was unquestionably better in 2012.  But if you asked scouts, I doubt many would rate him as a good (or even above average) defender.  I think the best you'd get is "a below average defender who was better than that in 2012".

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10789 on: January 03, 2013, 03:56:46 pm »
Even if Soriano was not a defensive liability in 2012, it is hard to say that he wasn't one in 2011, 2010 and 2009.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10790 on: January 03, 2013, 04:16:36 pm »
Actually, due to his excellent, accurate arm, the metrics rate him as above average defensively every year except 2009. Not saying I perfectly buy that, but Soriano has always had decent range in LF, and his arm has had a huge impact in years past.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10791 on: January 03, 2013, 04:34:16 pm »
I'd rate Soriano's overall defense as about average in 2012.  That represents a significant improvement over his performance in previous years.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10792 on: January 03, 2013, 04:46:28 pm »
Cubs have re-signed Jaye Chapman and Zach Putnam to minor league contracts.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10793 on: January 03, 2013, 09:09:27 pm »
I listened to it live.  I really don't know what to think.  If they can get Bourn to a contract that they like, I think they would sign him.  I don't know if they can though.  He also talked about how the team is best in the future and while you don't give up on a season, you don't do anything to hurt the future either.  If ABTY is to be believed the Cubs increased their offer to Bourn, but are behind the Mariners in either years/money or both.  Bourn hasn't signed yet, so I think he is holding out hope that somebody is going to meet his price.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10794 on: January 03, 2013, 09:28:22 pm »

Quote
- As you can expect, saying that the two Scotts were pretty much flyers and Jackson is a “stabilizer.” He’s durable and came up too early. With his athleticism and age, he still has upside.
- “Can’t build it (a franchise) up in one year.” Edwin fit into our plans and was on the market now, so we got him.
- With length of the deal as the question about position players, he said the Cubs are looking at a position player with a ‘similar type of deal’ (As EJax (Michael Bourn?)).
- When asked directly about Bourn – “Can’t comment on individual free agents.” “Center field is a position both short term and long term that we’ll be looking to improve.”
- Said that they’re pretty much done adding pitching, now will focus on position players.
- Looking to mold after the A’s/Orioles and build while contending. Won’t look past any one year, but will focus on making moves that improve the future. Won’t make moves that hurt the future for 2013.
- Asked where he wants to see improvement – Wants to really draw out AB’s and see middle relievers in the 6th and 7th innings. That’s how you “really beat teams up.” Wants teams to feel like it’s a battle to face the Cubs.
- Asked how close prospects are too getting a look this year – “most talented minor leaguers won’t be read for a look.” “organization did a lot of talent over the course of the year.”


Thanks for passing along some of that stuff, br, multi-hand as it may be.  All pretty interesting.  That Baker and Feldman are "flyers" makes sense, and it also makes sense that as such they wouldn't have been guaranteed starting jobs.  But both have a chance to create some value, for Cubs and themselves. 

The big about being done with pitching is interesting.

Obviously the bit about looking at another player with a jackson-type situation is interesting.  And would seem to be consistent with the Bourn rumor.  Just turned 30, so like Jackson might still be having his best years.  Like Jackson, could be a guy you could plan on being there, without being a monster contract.  Not sure who else would make sense for multi-year position player and more than a flyer.  So I take that fairly seriously as support for the plausibility of the Bourn rumor. 

The bit about grinding AB's is also interesting.  The personnel has changed some (Navarro; Schierholz; possibly Bourn, and neither Castillo nor Rizzo were up all year, possibly Sappelt....)  But if they are going to become a "grinding AB's" team, I think that may require some coaching and pushing and some adjustments by carryover guys.  (Like Castro and Barney.)   With limited additions, and without either Schierholz or Sappelt profiling as major "grinders", if a significant increase in pitches taken and walks taken does occur, it may be more a function of culture and coaching than simply replacing low-patience guys with high-patience guys. 

I also read a recap of an interview that Theo had with a Boston radio station on Wednesday.  (http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/01/03/theo-epstein-speaks-organizational-changes-draft-pick-compensation-use-of-payroll-rizzo-jackson-more/)  There was a question about "culture", and at the end of some comments Theo said that, as either quoted or paraphrased by Brett:  "We got rid of a couple players who were causing some issues, and the clubhouse took a positive turn under Dale Sveum."  Surprised he said even that much, I presume Zambrano was one and perhaps Aram the other guy in mind.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10795 on: January 04, 2013, 08:44:59 am »
Cubs ZiPS projections for 2013:

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.
FanGraphs Baseball · fangraphs.com


Interesting looking at some of the top comparable players, especially Castro (Robin Yount) and Rizzo (Kent Hrbek).  I'd take those careers for Castro and Rizzo.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10796 on: January 04, 2013, 09:18:26 am »
Since we had this conversation this morning, I thought I'd ask Keith Law about Vogelbach today in his chat.  He answered:

So there you have it.  Rationalize it any way you want...you can believe that he's not qualified to make that judgment because he's not in the Cubs organization or because he hasn't seen Vogelbach personally many times if that makes you feel better.  But that's a pretty strong statement from one of the top 3 or 4 national prospect evaluators (who is held in high enough regard by at least one MLB front office that he had an offer to be in charge of rebuilding their farm system several months ago, by the way).

Since we already knew Law's opinion of Vogelbach, a much more meaningful question might have been when he had last personally laid eyes on Vogelbach, how many times he has personally scouted him, how much he had watched Vogelbach at firstbase and how much he was watched him in the OF.

If he had actually scouted him, and had those opinions, then it might make sense to consider them.  If he has not, it makes no sense to give them any weight whatsoever.  Since those opinions are so directly at odds with the opinions of the folks with the Cubs who have spent a good deal of time personally scouting/observing Vogelbach and working with him and coaching him on a daily basis, I am inclined to believe that Law's opinion is based on things other than his own observation, and to the extent that it considers the input or opinion of others, I would bet they also have seen little to nothing of Vogelbach.

It also was interesting that in response to the direct question as to whether there is a scout, front office member, executive, or analyst anywhere in baseball that seriously thinks Dan Vogelbach could ever play anywhere but 1B or DH in the majors, Law did not answer it.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10797 on: January 04, 2013, 09:20:29 am »
There's a significant difference between having a bat good enough to get you to the bigs, and having a bat good enough to hide awful defense at 1B or LF.

Quite true, and my understanding is that the Cubs do not believe his defense at either position would hold him back, that he would be good enough defensively that he would not be a defensive liability at either position.

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10798 on: January 04, 2013, 09:45:58 am »
Do you have a link for the Cubs comments on Vogelbach in LF?

I dont recall seeing anything at all related to that, ever...

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Re: Cubs in '12
« Reply #10799 on: January 04, 2013, 09:52:24 am »
br, those are some pretty favorable ZIPS things.  As always, they seem to be overly generous to prospects.  Jackson and Vitters both .700+, with lots of HR's.  Villanueva hasn't even gotten out of A, but they project him at .650+.  I think if all of the minor leaguers who get anti-awful ZIPS were actually brought up, there'd be a whole lot who performed well below the predictions. 

Agree, Yount and Hrbek are two very favorable comps.  I actually liked their Barney one, Jose Lind.  I lived in Pittsburgh for two years in Lind's prime, when he posted a couple of .300+ OBP seasons.  He had great range and was a wizard defensively, and while Sandberg basically had tenure and won the GG every year in those days, it was Lind who eventually broke Ryne's 9-year grip.  That seems a very apt analogy, although Barney probably has a little better hitting ability than Lind.