Bleacher Bums Forum

If he had actually scouted him, and had those opinions, then it might make sense to consider them.  If he has not, it makes no sense to give them any weight whatsoever. 

Have you seen or scouted him? i guess we should ignore your opinions too

Depth:

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
#cubs sign dontrelle willis to minor-league deal

Ol' Dontrelle has come full circle.

I'm away from my laptop but it's on Rotoworld.

Good for Dontrelle.  Hard to believe he's still only 30.

Question:  I have a general understanding that WAR is a pretty-all-encompassing offense-defense-baserunning-availability stat used by the best sabers, but I don't understand the details.  I also understand that Bourn has had solid WAR most recent years (4-ish), including really good (6.5?) this past season.  And I understand that on the market every WAR is worth some millions, so that his WAR might seem to justify a pretty strong contract. 

Questions for Saber guys:
1.  How much of Bourn's WAR is defense?  Wrigley has a relatively small and contained CF; would he lose significant WAR in the smaller CF?
2.  How much is base-stealing?  His SB dipped some this year, which often happens into the 30's.  Will he lose much if his SB volume/efficiency deteriorates a bit, or if Sveum doesn't elect to send him much?  (Were the Cubs to acquire him?)
3.  Do the sites indicate how much is just general, non-SB baserunning?  I'm just curious how much differential Saber's calculate on baserunning...  I'm assuming Bourn is one the elite end, but I have no idea how much WAR an elite guy can add, not counting the easily quantifiable SB/CS numbers. 
4.  Bourn was a 6.5 WAR this year, but his HR's jumped a bunch (9 HR, after not hitting that many in previous 3 years.)  His walks also jumped, I think.  How much WAR would he lose if he returned to 3 HR, or 50 walks instead of 70? 
5.  I like rate stats, but WAR is a volume stat.  Bourn has been very durable and played every day for years.  I'm wondering how projectable that is going forward.  Particularly if he's an all-out rangy CF who'd have the speed to hit the walls often in Wrigley, and the speed to still be attempting 60+ SB per season. How safe is it to assume that a guy who plays his game is likely to remain anti-injury durable? 
6.  What is the typical $$/WAR ratio?  If you signed Bourn for 4 years, and figured that he'd continue to average somewhere near his recently typical 4-WAR/year,  how much would be "market" for  four years and 12-15 WAR overall, if the guy was a slugger or a pitcher? 
7.  it's been mentioned that defensive WAR can be skewed by positioning, which may be amplifying Barney's already excellent defense.  Is there any reason to think that Bourn's defensive WAR has been artificially amplified in some such way?

Given Hoyer's recent comment about trying to sign a player to a jackson-style deal, combined with rumors that the Cubs have been talking to Bourn, and combined with the absence of other available FA players who would seem to justify multi-year interest, it seems that Bourn really might be a guy Hoyer is pursuing.  So I'm just struggling on how to evaluate the wisdom of doing so, or at what price range it would be a good "under-value" deal, versus a "pretty fair" versus an "overpay". 

I'm also wondering whether, if they did get him and he produced at a 4-WAR rate, how far we might be from being a legit 80-win team if some health/performance things went right?  Koolaid!

I'd be shocked if the Cubs signed Bourn, because of the loss of a comp pick alone.  I could imagine them doing something like that for a really outstanding player who would be a key part of the team's future, but that isn't Bourn.

But it's something to talk about during a time when there is little else even rumored regarding the Cubs.  Seems like most of the changes for next season have been accomplished early this winter. 

The good news is that spring training isn't far off now, so that will provide some grist for discussion and debate.

It would make a very nice story if Dontrelle could somehow come back to pitch well again, and do so for the Cubs.

Almost as nice a story as when Banks cae out of retirement to lead the Cubs to post-season victory in the early '70's.... or when Santo rose from the grave to speak at his HOF induction ceremony.

Perhaps Willis might contribute as a reliever?  He's never really tried that.