Bleacher Bums Forum

What is kind of nonsensical to me about that post is the discussion of the Cubs rotation.  It basically says, "Yeah, this looks good on paper for now, and it really is a good rotation...but it's inevitable half of them will be traded off at the deadline."  That just doesn't make sense.  If the Cubs truly have the 9th best rotation in baseball (and by the way, best in the division), there is nothing inevitable about the outcome of this season.  With that kind of pitching, all it takes is one or two better-than-expected seasons out of the offense to make the team a real contender.

~sigh~

Y'all need to listen to Jes; it's impossible for Wild Card's to win the World Series.  We all know that, so why even shoot for it.  it's not like the post season in baseball is as much about random luck as it is about who has the best team.

Ray, you understand logic and the English language well enough to know I have never suggested that a Wild Card team can not win the WS

But recognizing that a Wild Card team can win the WS does not mean teams which would have to get lucky to be marginal (not a marginal post season team, but a marginal team) should sacrifice the  opportunity to do a great deal to improve the team's chances in later years in order to provide very little improvement to remote chances in a current year.

Fangraphs has the Cubs with the 20th best bullpen in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/positional-power-rankings-relief-pitchers-16-30/

Keep in mind there is little variance in bullpen estimates...the difference between the Cubs at #20 and the Dodgers at #16 is 0.3 WAR.  The difference between the Brewers at #29 and the Cubs is only 1.3 WAR.   

Well that can't be right.

Folks here seem certain an improved bullpen is going to make a major difference in the team's W/L record, perhaps enough to catapult the team right into the thick of things this season.

fangraphs has to be computing things wrong.

Probably a decimal point in the wrong place.

Last year, fangraphs rankings had the Cubs' bullpen as the worst in the majors, and that's where it ended up.  Of course, it had the Orioles as #29, and they made the playoffs largely on their performance in close games where the bullpen is most important.

Fangraphs also had the Cubs rotation at #24 last year, and they ended up 23rd in team ERA.  Of course, they had Samardzija pegged as a disaster and didn't have half the bad starters factored in. 

If the Cubs bullpen ends up with a 2.4 WAR as they have projected, that's roughly a 4 win improvement over last year just in the pen (-1.5 WAR in 2012).  And the actual impact is probably a little more than that because WAR is context-independent.  It doesn't consider that the bullpen is typically involved in high leverage situations.  It's likely that an improvement to the Fangraphs projection would actually be worth 5-7 wins.

I'm not aware that anyone has predicted that the Cubs will be in the thick of things this season.  Who was it that said that?

Sign with the Cubs or commit suicide?

He'll get back to you.

I'm not aware that anyone has predicted that the Cubs will be in the thick of things this season.  Who was it that said that?

Work on your reading comprehension.

What I wrote was,

perhaps enough to catapult the team right into the thick of things this season.

You and brjones would be among those that would apply to.