Bleacher Bums Forum

I sincerely hope you're right, Ron, and I suspect you are.  But all the whistling through the graveyard about run differential can be very seductive if you aren't careful.

I'm confident that Theo et al are more sophisticated than that, and they are the ones making the decisons.

Who said that DeJesus, Schierholtz, and Valbuena are more than transitional players?  All I said was that it's not inevitable that all three will drop off significantly.  DeJesus isn't far off his career norms, RF should improve when you factor in Hairston (even with a regression all the way to Schierholtz's career numbers), and there's an argument to be made that Valbuena has the potential to be better than he has in the past.  Although, I guess I would argue that Valbuena could be the long term second baseman.  He is 5 days younger than Darwin Barney, after all, and I'm not convinced he's the hopeless hitter he showed from 2010-2012.

All that said, if the Cubs get to the deadline and the stats still say they should be a .500ish or better team, it absolutely should impact how they act at the deadline.  Of course they should still be sellers.  But for a team with a true talent level around .500--and it is pretty well accepted at this point that these peripheral measures are more representative of true talent level than actual win/loss record--2014 isn't a guaranteed lost season.  And if 2014 isn't a guaranteed lost season, they shouldn't be selling off every proven useful major leaguer for A-ball lottery tickets just because they have a bad record this year.

I'm confident that Theo et al are sophisticated enough that they realize there is a middle ground between selling off everyone who isn't a long term star and going all in for 2013.  To sell off everyone, you need to be as hopeless as the Marlins or Astros.   To go all in, you need to be as good as the Rangers or Reds.  The Cubs are clearly somewhere in between, and they should behave that way.

Except I'd argue there's not that much strategic difference between being bad and being awful. Guys like Villanueva and DeJesus will always be readily available in the winter. If a guy doesn't project to help you when you're ready to contend, you shouldn't hang on to them in the hope is of getting to 75 wins. Hole fillers will be there for you later.

The trick, and of course, is deciding who the potential contributors are when you think you'll be contending.

If Villanueva is as valuable as you say, surely he'd be very valuable to a contender?

I wouldn't give him away, no - he's one guy you can argue for keeping. But if you're offered the right deal , sure.

Just as I don't expect the Cubs to be unrealistic about their chances for this year, I do not assume they will trade guys like DeJesus, Valbuena, Shierholtz or Villanueva (or anyone else of consequence) unless they get a player who is likely to contribute in the next year or two or a genuine prospect with substantial potential to be long-term assets.  Those guys appear to be seen as having their own value as transitional players, even if they are not long term assets.

Bowden cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA.

Nice to still have him around, although he's not really all that good to begin with.

The problem is that the Cubs rarely raised the white flag under Hendry so until last year there aren't a lot of vets for prospect type trades.

We've made more than a few over the years.  Here's actually a history of Cubs deadline dump trading during the MacHendry era. 

July 31, 1999 (Standings)

Traded Jose Hernandez and Terry Mulholland to the Atlanta Braves. Received a player to be named later, Micah Bowie and Ruben Quevedo. The Atlanta Braves sent Joey Nation (August 24, 1999) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

August 31, 1999 (Standings)

Traded Rod Beck to the Boston Red Sox. Received a player to be named later and Mark Guthrie. The Boston Red Sox sent Cole Liniak (September 1, 1999) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

Traded Tyler Houston to the Cleveland Indians. Received Richard Negrette (minors).

July 21, 2000 (Standings)

Traded Glenallen Hill to the New York Yankees. Received Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena.

July 26, 2000 (Standings)

Traded Ismael Valdez to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Jamie Arnold, Jorge Piedra and cash.

July 31, 2000 (Standings)

Traded Henry Rodriguez to the Florida Marlins. Received Dave Noyce (minors) and Ross Gload.

July 31, 2002 (Standings)

Traded Darren Lewis to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Chad Hermansen.

August 22, 2002 (Standings)

Traded Tom Gordon to the Houston Astros. Received players to be named later and Ross Rohlicek (minors). The Houston Astros sent Travis Anderson (minors) (September 11, 2002) and Mike Nannini (minors) (September 11, 2002) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

August 25, 2002 (Standings)

Traded Jeff Fassero to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received players to be named later. The St. Louis Cardinals sent Jared Blasdell (minors) (September 24, 2002) and Jason Karnuth (September 24, 2002) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

August 9, 2005 (Standings)

Traded Mike Remlinger and cash to the Boston Red Sox. Received Olivio Astacio (minors).

August 27, 2005 (Standings)

Traded Matt Lawton to the New York Yankees. Received Justin Berg.

August 29, 2005 (Standings)

Traded Todd Hollandsworth to the Atlanta Braves. Received Angelo Burrows (minors) and Todd Blackford (minors).

July 22, 2006 (Standings)

Traded Scott Williamson to the San Diego Padres. Received Fabian Jimenez Angulo (minors) and Joel Santo (minors).

July 31, 2006 (Standings)

Traded Todd Walker to the San Diego Padres. Received Jose Ceda.

Traded Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Cesar Izturis.

August 31, 2006 (Standings)

Traded Phil Nevin and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received a player to be named later. The Minnesota Twins sent Adam Harben (minors) (September 5, 2006) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

July 31, 2010 (Standings)

Traded Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Brett Wallach (minors), Kyle Smit (minors) and Blake DeWitt.

August 11, 2010 (Standings)

Traded Mike Fontenot to the San Francisco Giants. Received Evan Crawford (minors).

August 18, 2010 (Standings)

Traded Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves. Received Jeffrey Lorick (minors), Robinson Lopez (minors) and Tyrelle Harris (minors).

July 28, 2011 (Standings)

Traded Kosuke Fukudome and cash to the Cleveland Indians. Received Abner Abreu (minors) and Carlton Smith (minors).