Author Topic: Cubs in '13 1/15/13 - 6/11/13  (Read 55420 times)

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1485 on: May 30, 2013, 11:51:55 pm »
The thing about Valbuena's season so far is that it's not a BABIP fluke or anything like that (his BABIP is actually pretty low at .278 (before today)).  He's hitting for power, he's walking often, his strikeout rate isn't excessive...there isn't really anything about the peripherals that says he's definitely a fluke.  He'll regress some...but I don't see any reason he can't maintain a .750 or better OPS going forward. 

And he's also a really good defender at 3B.  That gets lost with his strong offensive performance. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1486 on: May 31, 2013, 12:37:04 am »
You can't tamper with players on your team.  I'm not suggesting the hammer out an extension, just that the door is open for him to come back.  Unethical, I don't really think so.  If the team he is traded to wants to sign him they just have to make an offer he can't refuse or beat out other teams competing for his service in free agency. 

Ryan Dempster on 8/1/12 gave an interview to ESPN that basically said hey I'd really like to go back to Cubs.  I don't think the Rangers cared about it.

I think this gets at the nub of my point.

First, I'm pretty sure that Theo could find a way to indicate to Garza they want him back without crossing over into unethical or tampering bounds.

But, what's the point?  If they really, truly want him back as part of the future winning Cubs team, why not just do what it takes to re-sign the guy?

I think the reason it's a once-in-a-blue-moon scenario that a club trades a significant free agent before the deadline--and then brings him back to a nice deal during the next off-season--is that it just unrealistic to dither around trying to get a prospect for a 2-month rental instead of just keeping a guy that you want for the future.  In the real world, that trade and bring back scenario doesn't happen much.  You just starting doing what you need to do to sign the guy, period.

Who can disagree with the notion of getting a prospect and then just bring back the guy who got you the prospect.  Best of both worlds.  But, it's having your cake and eating it.

For me, the best approach is to put in motion what it takes to get Garza re-signed.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1487 on: May 31, 2013, 01:30:28 am »
... it is pretty well accepted at this point that these peripheral measures are more representative of true talent level than actual win/loss record...

Yes, it is pretty well accepted by you, that you are right about the significance of run differential and its elevation above actual W/L records.

Not many others share that view, but it is pretty well accepted that you do agree with yourself.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1488 on: May 31, 2013, 01:34:29 am »
If Villanueva is as valuable as you say, surely he'd be very valuable to a contender?

Give up.

A the person arguing a position which is internally inconsistent, and obviously so, is not going to see (or if seen is not going to acknowledge) that internal inconsistency even when they are beaten about the head and shoulders with it.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1489 on: May 31, 2013, 01:35:56 am »
Nice to still have him around, although he's not really all that good to begin with.

He was part of the body count in the good number of arms.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1490 on: May 31, 2013, 01:38:10 am »
The problem is that the Cubs rarely raised the white flag under Hendry so until last year there aren't a lot of vets for prospect type trades.  The best one I can come up with is Todd Walker for Jose Ceda.  Ceda did well in the minors for the Cubs and they were able to flip him for a reliever, ok it was Gregg so never mind.

That exact point has been made before.

I have made it.

It is like water off a duck's back.

Doesn't matter how much water you pour on the duck.  It all simply rolls off.

Your point will not register, or will be denied, or will be forgotten within five minutes.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1491 on: May 31, 2013, 01:45:19 am »
Mostly the Cubs traded crap and got crap back in return.

And historically that has tended to be the approach a lot of Cub fans supported.  They would oppose even the idea trading players when those players had real value (such as trading Derek Lee after his big season in 2005), and instead only want to trade the guy after he was truly washed up or his contract was an albatross, and somehow think that other teams at that time were supposed to cough up major value in return.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1492 on: May 31, 2013, 01:49:21 am »
if heaven forbid, we're within 4 or 5 games of the wild card and decide to just stand pat and to see what happens?

Teams 4-5 games out of the wild card race in late July tend to have more than just one or two teams ahead of them.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1493 on: May 31, 2013, 10:53:15 pm »
I wonder if the Cubs not getting anything of consequence in an in-season trade might be related to a lot of the good players that they wanted to trade recently having no-trade rights/clauses.

Aramis Ramirez flat out refused to be traded.
Derrek Lee refused a trade to the Angels and then accepted a trade to Atlanta weeks later.
Greg Maddux would only accept a trade to a West Coast team.
Ryan Dempster got his panties in a wad because he didn't like hearing about being traded via the Twitter.

Also, their front office sucked.

Meanwhile, other teams were making significant deals:

Scott Rolen for Edwin Encarnacion, Casey Blake for Carlos Santana, Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez, Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, etc.

There are impact trades to be made if your front office isn't in love with the players on their team.  Also, you don't need to acquire Hall of Fame players but if you can get someone that becomes a starter on your team for 6-8 years and gives you league average or better, you come out ahead.
 

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1494 on: June 01, 2013, 10:13:45 am »
I'm on board with Valbuena at third, at least until one of Lake or Baez (or Vitters????) is ready.  Good defense, seems to have fun playing the game, decent pop in his bat.  Plus he's young enough (27?) that his best years are ahead of him, even though they may eventually be in a backup role.

Ian Stewart can rot in Iowa for all I care.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1495 on: June 01, 2013, 10:42:10 am »


Ian Stewart can rot in Iowa for all I care.
Who?

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1496 on: June 01, 2013, 10:59:57 am »
I wonder if the Cubs not getting anything of consequence in an in-season trade might be related to a lot of the good players that they wanted to trade recently having no-trade rights/clauses.

Certainly could be a factor, but those clauses did not just magically appear in contracts.  And even when they are there, if management wants to get around them, it can.  The problem was that during the entire time McPhail and Hendry were running the show there was an absolute resistance to punting on a season, even when the team was completely out of it by late July, and fully rebuilding.  Much as with many here, there was an unwillingness to entirely write off a season and simply build for the future, always trying to catch the lightening in the bottle.  In Hendry's case it was exacerbated by the tremendous success he had in his first season as GM and the unbelievably lop-sided trades he worked out in moving the albatross of Hundley for two very nice usable parts in Karros and Grudz, and then peddling a failed prospect and a power hitting hacker utility player for two star quality players in Aram and Lofton.

It was a misguided approach, and one I am very happy to see the Theocracy abandon it.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1497 on: June 01, 2013, 12:41:02 pm »
Agree with Strike and CuBlue.  The Cubs rarely traded anybody with any value, and Maddux/Aram/Dempster dictated the possibilities.   So, little surprise they didn't get much.  Plus, whatever limited value they did trade was commonly divided up over lesser prospects.  Instead of one B prospect for Lilly, Hendry got three C prospects.  Instead of getting one B prospect for Dempster, Hoyer got two C prospects.   

Still, Hoyer is like Hendry (until late) in that he's got money for anybody they want to keep.  If he wants to extend Feldman or Garza, it's not like his budget has capped out.  And it's not like he needs to move Castro or Samardz because he can't afford them.  Late, Hendry was trading Lilly and DeRosa because his budget was maxed, but for the most part anybody he wanted for next year he could and did keep.  He was only trading guys who he didn't think were good enough to be useful on next year's team.  Well, if they weren't good enough to have a place on next year's Cubs team, how valuable can they be?  Looking through JR's trade list, it was interesting how many weren't even July trades, but were actually August cleared-waivers trades.  Many of those were salary dumps; build a roster hoping for a playoffs season with playoffs revenue; then try to clear a few weeks of salary if possible when that isn't going to happen. 

I just don't think you get huge value for a 2-month rental of a non-star.  Nobody's giving a guy who's currently one of their 10 best prospects for 2 months of Feldman.   

The only guys we talk about trading with more than 2 months of club control is Vizcaino and DeJesus, right?  Maybe Russell, but most don't want to trade him either because we've still got him under control for a few years.  Maholm got a more interesting, high-ceiling return because he wasn't a rental.  But Garza, Feldman, those are 2-month values.  Maybe you can get 2 or 3 top-30 guys; or one top-20 guy; or one guy who at one time was viewed as a top-10 but who isn't holding serve.  (Bobby Hill....) 

I can easily see Hoyer figuring that he's got money to spend but few FA's dying to join us.  So that he's just as well off keeping Feldman and Garza, and extending both.  Keep those guys, hope that maybe next year Vizcaino will emerge, or Appel/Gray, and that by this time next summer we might feel very good about rotation.   

In a sense, he's in kind of a good position.  If he keeps those guys, he'd be happy to extend them.  But if somebody makes a good trade offer, he can move them.  I just don't think a lot of teams will make good enough offers to make it worth trading, when it's really just a 2-month rental for reward.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1498 on: June 01, 2013, 12:49:57 pm »
Dolis to DL with forearm strain.  Burnett DFa'd.  Parker called up.

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Re: Cubs in '13
« Reply #1499 on: June 01, 2013, 01:00:03 pm »
Can hardly wait to see who claims Burnett next.

On the bright side, he's piling up flight miles.