Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51095 times)

Tuffy · « **Reply #1200 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:20:47 pm »

Quote from: Robb on September 30, 2015, 08:14:13 pm

Too much sucky sucky.

In that case how are Hunter and Rosscup still hanging around the back of the bullpen?

CUBluejays · « **Reply #1201 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:22:55 pm »

Quote from: CurtOne on September 30, 2015, 07:57:42 pm

"give a rotation spot to Wood, Cahill or Turner before I'd sign Turner. "

huh?

I don't know what you mean.

brjones · « **Reply #1202 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:24:53 pm »

Wada pitched one inning on September 4. He gave up 1 hit and 1 unearned run, but I don't think it was very impressive. Maybe he got hurt again.

Tuffy · « **Reply #1203 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:30:08 pm »

Quote from: brjones on September 30, 2015, 08:24:53 pm

Wada pitched one inning on September 4. He gave up 1 hit and 1 unearned run, but I don't think it was very impressive. Maybe he got hurt again.

Thanks, BR; I had completely missed that game.

davep · « **Reply #1204 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:34:30 pm »

I am more surprised that Edwards hasn't pitched more since he was called up.

brjones · « **Reply #1205 on:** September 30, 2015, 08:35:28 pm »

The Wada appearance was in the 8th inning of a 14-5 Cubs win, so it was pretty forgettable.

Reb · « **Reply #1206 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:16:16 pm »

Quote from: CUBluejays on September 30, 2015, 07:49:47 pm

You do realize that FIP, xFIP are more predictive of the future success than any stat you mentioned. So if your looking to see what the future holds don't you want to look at the stats that have the highest predictive value? Not your "real world" stats. fWAR is more predictive of the future than rWAR. 2014 he had an fWAR of 1.4.

His K% fell from 18% to 14.8%. His fastball velocity dropped from 88.8 to 87.9. His 2014 GB% was down from 2013. He lived off of a career low .262 BABIP. There was nothing to like about his 2014 season except for his ERA. Fister had forearm tightness this year. Previous injury is greatest predictor of future injury and forearm tightness can turn into TJS. He is any easy pass, I'd rather give a rotation spot to Wood, Cahill or Turner before I'd sign Fister.

I'm not saying that Fister and Weaver are similar pitchers. I'm saying that as Fister loses velocity he is going to be a less effective ground ball pitcher. What used to be ground balls will become harder hit balls. He'll have to reinvent himself as a fly ball pitcher. That takes excellent command because the margin of error is small. See Dan Haren.

If Fister's 2014 x-FIP was intended to predict his 2015 season, it failed miserably. That's because baseball is not a mechanical exercise. 2014 x-FIP would have said he would return to his more typical season. (His x-FIP in 2014 was 3.85 compared to his career 3.78 x-FIP). It did not project the 2015 slide. Fister fell off in 2015 because of injury, mechanical problems, and the expected random chance that players fluctuate in performance--in his case also by drop in velocity and command.

Don't think anyone expected Fister to have another career year in 2015. Didn't really need x-FIP to tell you that. Think any semi-sophisticated observer could tell you that. We see this kind of thing in baseball all the time. Guy has career year at age 30--probably will revert to his mean. In any case, wasn't just his ERA in 2014 that was really good. His line drive rate was best of his career, K/W rate best of his career. BB/9 best of his career. He was good.

Other thing is this: nobody plays a season for the purpose of predicting the next season. You play a season to do well that season and to win. Fister had a career best season in 2014, not a decline season. Very few folks thought he would do that again in quite that way in 2015. As it turned out, he was worse than anyone or any metric projected.

If you want to play the game of 20-20 hindsight, be my guest. Maybe there is a post of yours projecting Fister's 2015 disaster posted on the board a year ago. Don't think you did so well on deGrom, Inciarte, Olt, and others discussed before the fact. Nobody is all that good about this stuff. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Everybody. Maybe the guys who get paid the big bucks are good at it at a higher rate than rest of us.

Think it is likely that Fister will be a lot better in 2016 than in 2015, just as was likely would not repeat his 2014 season in 2015. Lots of clubs--in the real world-- will project a 2016 uptick. Whether he turns out to be good value depends on his contract and situation. We share same thought that he's probably not a good match for 2016 Cubs. But, there is nothing in his 2014 xFIP or fWAR or anything else that projected what was to happen in 2015. And, like me, you have no clue what 2016 has in store for Fister. You can act like you do, but you don't.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #1207 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:34:35 pm »

1) I never said deGrom was bad. He just wasn't someone I would target in a trade. The home/road splits and TJS surgery concern me.
2) I missed on Olt saying he'd be an interesting bench guy, I never predicted stardom for the guy. Just checked Olt has a higher wRC+ than Herrera with the White Sox.
3) I don't like low power, low walk players that are dependent on BABIP for their offensive value. I still wouldn't trade for him. I doubt the DBacks trade him either.
4) Comparing his xFIP to his career xFIP isn't how you do it. 2011 with Tigers it was 2.75. 2012 3.39, 2013 3.42. 2014 3.85. You compare it the ERA and 2014 sticks out like a sore thumb. His xFIP- has been below league average until 2014. Besides the forearm issues he also had shoulder issues in 2014. The guy is injury prone and isn't the pitcher he used to be.
5) If you want to give my "misses" I railed against Jackson, loved Samardzija, wanted Hammel as a FA and mentioned that Arrieta had ace stuff the day we traded for him.
6) I am also quite happy to be wrong about Castro turning it around with the Cubs. I thought he had a chance to do it somewhere else, but I've always liked him except for a 2 month span of sucking.

CurtOne · « **Reply #1208 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:47:48 pm »

In that case, I still hold Samardzija against you, and Reb wins.

Next!

Jes Beard · « **Reply #1209 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:59:32 pm »

Quote from: CUBluejays on September 30, 2015, 07:49:47 pm

as Fister loses velocity he is going to be a less effective ground ball pitcher. What used to be ground balls will become harder hit balls. He'll have to reinvent himself as a fly ball pitcher. That takes excellent command because the margin of error is small. See Dan Haren.

Why will he have to reinvent himself as a fly ball pitcher? If hit balls are still being hit into the ground, even if they are being hit harder, they are still most likely going to be groundball outs.

Reb · « **Reply #1210 on:** September 30, 2015, 10:35:49 pm »

Quote from: CUBluejays on September 30, 2015, 09:34:35 pm

1) I never said deGrom was bad. He just wasn't someone I would target in a trade. The home/road splits and TJS surgery concern me.
2) I missed on Olt saying he'd be an interesting bench guy, I never predicted stardom for the guy. Just checked Olt has a higher wRC+ than Herrera with the White Sox.
3) I don't like low power, low walk players that are dependent on BABIP for their offensive value. I still wouldn't trade for him. I doubt the DBacks trade him either.
4) Comparing his xFIP to his career xFIP isn't how you do it. 2011 with Tigers it was 2.75. 2012 3.39, 2013 3.42. 2014 3.85. You compare it the ERA and 2014 sticks out like a sore thumb. His xFIP- has been below league average until 2014. Besides the forearm issues he also had shoulder issues in 2014. The guy is injury prone and isn't the pitcher he used to be.
5) If you want to give my "misses" I railed against Jackson, loved Samardzija, wanted Hammel as a FA and mentioned that Arrieta had ace stuff the day we traded for him.
6) I am also quite happy to be wrong about Castro turning it around with the Cubs. I thought he had a chance to do it somewhere else, but I've always liked him except for a 2 month span of sucking.

1. deGrom road ERA is #11 best in NL at 3.09. Why in world would that concern you?

2. Don't think "stardom" was ever the discussion about Olt. Herrera is here, Olt is not. That was the discussion. And, Olt seems to be blowing his opportunity with Sox, unfortunately.

3. Some guys are going to fit the profile of outperforming somewhat the norm on BABIP. That's Inciarte. Not being critical about the result, but the rigidity of overemphasizing one stat like that in isolation from other factors, including watching/scouting the player. Actually, you do that a bit too much, generally. My opinion.

4. Sorry you don't like comparing one season to same player's career. Maybe we can agree that, in some respects, 2014 was an outlier for Fister, but for different reasons. I think, on balance, was career best season and you think career worst season (prior to 2015). You should explain to Fister why he was actually bad two years in a row (and the team that signs him for probably a pretty nice contract for 2016).

5. Funny, every thing I read now is that everybody said that Arrieta had "ace stuff" with Orioles. Even Orioles agree with that. Can we find somebody that didn't like his stuff with Orioles? I will give you credit for that (but not too much).

6. As to Castro, a month or so ago, I inadvertently said he was getting close to .700 OPS, when I meant to say close to .600 OPS. Now, he's getting close to .700 OPS. See, I was inadvertently correct a month ago.

Not trying to keep score on any of this. More important how we get to the point--the process--than the actual result that happens.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #1211 on:** October 01, 2015, 12:11:56 am »

1) At the time it was a much larger difference. The TJS surgery is the bigger thing, but that got lost.
2) In a world where Herrera can stick around for a year, Olt can stick with somebody on the bench. Herrera won't be here much longer anyway.
3) He's Ben Revere with better defense and less speed. I just don't like that type of player. Almora can easily be what he is.
4) When your comparing his 2014 to career are you taking into account the league difference and different offensive environments? Just comparing raw numbers is worthless and that is what you did. If you take the different factors into account those other seasons are above average and 2014 wasn't. ERA is dependent on a bunch of factors outside the pitchers control and everything about 2014 screamed it was a fluke. If you just look at ERA (which you are doing, even though you claim it is just me) sure it was his best year. When you look at the decreased GB% (lower velocity, easier to square up and elevate), lower K% even though he moved to the NL, abnormally low BABIP it screams as something to not want on your team, and xFIP- becoming below league average. I hope some other team gives him a ton of money, just not the Cubs.
5) When I mentioned it here, people thought I was crazy.

Curt Samardzija=Russell. Let go of the hate.

Reb · « **Reply #1212 on:** October 01, 2015, 01:54:26 am »

Quote from: CUBluejays on October 01, 2015, 12:11:56 am

1) At the time it was a much larger difference. The TJS surgery is the bigger thing, but that got lost.
2) In a world where Herrera can stick around for a year, Olt can stick with somebody on the bench. Herrera won't be here much longer anyway.
3) He's Ben Revere with better defense and less speed. I just don't like that type of player. Almora can easily be what he is.
4) When your comparing his 2014 to career are you taking into account the league difference and different offensive environments? Just comparing raw numbers is worthless and that is what you did. If you take the different factors into account those other seasons are above average and 2014 wasn't. ERA is dependent on a bunch of factors outside the pitchers control and everything about 2014 screamed it was a fluke. If you just look at ERA (which you are doing, even though you claim it is just me) sure it was his best year. When you look at the decreased GB% (lower velocity, easier to square up and elevate), lower K% even though he moved to the NL, abnormally low BABIP it screams as something to not want on your team, and xFIP- becoming below league average. I hope some other team gives him a ton of money, just not the Cubs.
5) When I mentioned it here, people thought I was crazy.

Curt Samardzija=Russell. Let go of the hate.

Find it a more than a little bizarre how you seem to totally discount pitcher ERA. Never encountered anybody who does that. Think doing that is a bad idea.

We've discussed this before. For me, ERA is more important than FIP or xFIP. I don't discount the latter but tend to blend them, with ERA about 50%--with the other two factored in. If you do that, Fister in 2014 is a career season for him and not out of whack with career. ERA alone, yes, was an outlier and don't think anybody expected him to do that again, as I've said.

Regarding league differences and environments, ironic you would ask that question because you rely on fWAR--which totally discounts park factors and makes no league adjustments at all. I'm interested in that (are you?) and if we use rWAR we get 4.5 WAR for 2014 Fister, a career high. So, which is it..context of park and league or not?

I keep referencing Fister's 2014 lower line drive rate and walks...and you keep ignoring that. What you are also seem to be doing is applying a cookie-cutter approach to a very unusual pitcher. Not too many guys effective working in upper 80s these days. So, for me, drop of slightly less than 1 mph in velocity in 2014 doesn't mean much, standing alone, for that guy. Drop in groundball outs, yes concerned about that, but tempered by lower walks and fewer line drives. Put another way, it's a mixed bag.

Unlike you, I believe, I watched a lot of Fister that season and he was a command guy in bottom of zone. Lot of weak contact. 6'8' with very long arms. Unusual pitcher.

I realize that not everybody is lucky enough to live near a big league park or can watch the MLB package but it's helpful when assessing players to watch at least a few games they play. Presumably, Cubs are pretty busy right now scouting potential post-season opponents. Cubs could save a lot of time and resources by just taking a quick look at x-FIP or fWAR but don't think they stop there. Think you would not be going astray on some guys such as deGrom and inciarte and Fister in 2014 if you could watch them a bit more.

Saying Inciarte is like Revere except for defense is cute but Inciarte is one of the premier defensive OFers in baseball. Won't bother with defensive WAR stats. You know them. Watch him play too. Yeah, Almora--if he develops--might be similar. Let us hope.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #1213 on:** October 01, 2015, 10:42:39 am »

Quote from: Reb on October 01, 2015, 01:54:26 am

Regarding league differences and environments, ironic you would ask that question because you rely on fWAR--which totally discounts park factors and makes no league adjustments at all. I'm interested in that (are you?) and if we use rWAR we get 4.5 WAR for 2014 Fister, a career high. So, which is it..context of park and league or not?

Funny you mention that. Here is Dave Cameron from his chat on Fangraphs yesterday.

Comment From Guest
since WAR is FIP based, that means it’s not taking park into account right? so WAR would undervalue pitchers in a hitters park? do I have that correct?

Dave Cameron: No, we add in park adjustments when calculating WAR.

12:05
Dave Cameron: Our WAR isn’t just FIP * IP. There’s a bunch of adjustments in there, for league, role, park, the number of infield flies a pitcher generates, the run/win conversion. It’s a pretty complex calculation.

So your wrong. fWAR takes that into account, but I mentioned this in reference to xFIP- which is the league and park adjusted xFIP.

Fister has always been that guy that hit the lower part of the zone and generated weak contact, I'm not arguing that. I like ground ball pitchers. I arguing that with his velocity decline he won't continue to generate weak contact. When a GB pitcher BABIP suddenly drops it is fluky. So while you got memorized watching Fister and thinking he's great the numbers tell a different story. It shows a pitcher who was striking out less people and getting lucky that the balls in play where getting hit at people.

I'm not the only person that discounts ERA, again from Dave Cameron's chat

Dave Cameron: Well I don’t think voters should just vote based on FIP and WAR. I’m not going to. But I do think that mostly the writers have moved from wins to ERA, which is an improvement, but still not ideal.

I do look at ERA. I check it against FIP/xFIP. If the numbers are close, that is a good thing. When ERA is low and FIP/xFIP is high that is usually not a good thing. When ERA is high and FIP/xFIP is low that is an interesting by low guy. Fister is a buy low guy that I have no interest in. The Cubs have room for 1 more starter. If you look at the 2nd/3rd/4th tier guys you can find much better pitchers. I just don't look at FIP/xFIP/ERA though. I also pay attention to GB%, K%, BB%, and velocity. Those numbers can help confirm what I see in when I watch games on MLB.TV. So despite what you think, I do watch a bunch of games, listen to podcasts, etc... I don't take what my eyes say as the final decision maker, though. I like pitchers like Fister, that is why I'm interested in people like Null. They have a self life though. When the velocity and K's drop they get uninteresting very fast. If 2011-2013 Fister was I on the market, he would be one of my first non-Price choices to sign. That pitcher isn't on the market.

The LD% isn't something to hang your hat on either. Those missing line drives became fly balls. More ground balls became fly balls. His FB% jumped 10% that year. His FB% in 2015 stayed high and the LD% went back to his career norm in 2015. It was likely noise. His IFFB% has also been on decline since 2012.

You keep mentioning deGrom and Inciarte like I think they suck. Not wanting to trade for them is different than thinking they suck. deGrom at the time had a low 2 ERA and a 1 ERA at home. His ERA has gone up since then. I think he is a perfectly fine, TORP. I just wouldn't use assests to trade for him that it would take to get him. Inciarte is a nice player. If he as a CF he would likely be a 4 fWAR player this year. I don't want to trade the assests it would take to get him, because I don't like the offensive profile. This doesn't mean I think he sucks or that he'd help the Cubs. The cost/benefit doesn't line up.

In short I take a lot of stuff into consideration, but I'm not going to go just off of what I see. I'm not a scout so if I think something and the numbers don't back it up I will change my mind.

Reb · « **Reply #1214 on:** October 01, 2015, 12:17:41 pm »

fWAR ignores actual parks where pitcher at issue pitches and ignores actual teams pitches against (see link). rWAR takes that into account. That's what I was referring to.

You say you "look" at ERA , but you don't really. Read your own posts. Whenever anybody references ERA, you enphasize xFIP. Time and again. Actually, you just said you "discount" ERA (as does Cameron). Think that's nutty. You look at ERA but then discount it? No clue what that means. If you take ERA into account, what's the formula?

Everybody looks at variety of components. You say you do, but you are actually very limited in how reach conclusions. And, occasionally, when I check your numbers, they are inaccurate. Have pointed that out in past.

Never said Fister was "great"--just that had career year in 2014. Maybe you agree now but with caveats. Fine.

Not holding past comments about deGrom and Inciarte against you. I have made bad calls too--don't look them up. Just referenced them to show how you go overboard, too often, on a narrow component and without context.

Now you've finally at least acknowledged Fister 2014 line drive %....but still ignore 2014 walks. Pretty essential component for Fister.

WAR Comparison Chart | Baseball-Reference.com

A comparison of various WAR systems

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Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51095 times)

Tuffy

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

CUBluejays

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

brjones

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Tuffy

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

davep

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

brjones

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Reb

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

CUBluejays

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

CurtOne

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Jes Beard

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Reb

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

CUBluejays

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Reb

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

CUBluejays

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)

Reb

Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)