Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 30395 times)

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2015, 04:07:18 pm »
By the way, Sonny Gray is not even yet arb eligible in 2016.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2015, 04:30:33 pm »
Fowler since all-star break:  305-461-458.

Things change. Perceptions change.

162 game season.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2015, 04:51:17 pm »
Think a rising-in-stature Baez, McKinney back-to-A's, Underwood. Alternatively, move Pierre Johnson up to AAA today and if he's really good for those 5-6 starts--on top of his recent excellent work at AA--he becomes a factor. Maybe that-Johnson and a 4th guy. Lot can happen in remainder of season that impacts trade value. If Baez plays poorly rest of season, whole thing probably unrealistic.

That doesn't even get you in the ball park and trading for him is unrealistic.

If Baez shows enough at the major league to regain trade value, no way people will want to trade him.  But even a rebounded Baez, McKinney, Underwood isn't going to get him.  Gray is going to give you 4 years at well an AAV of $10 million.  He has an insane value.  Beane made a weird trade with Donaldson, but Grey has much more value.  Trading for him would be very, very painful.

Barreto is supposed to be unlikely to play SS long term.

To put is some $ terms.  Gray is going to a roughly 5 fWAR pitcher this year.  If he does that for 4 years at $8 million/WAR that is a $160 million value.  Let's overshoot his arbitation salaries and go $.5, $4, $10, $20.  These numbers are way to high, but that is $34.5 million over 4 years.  His excess value is $125.5 million.  Hamels brought back 3 top 100 guys with maybe half that excess value.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2015, 04:58:25 pm by CUBluejays »

grrrrlacher

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2015, 04:51:30 pm »
I don't see why A's would even entertain trading Gray. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2015, 04:57:00 pm »
Richard DFA, Szczur up.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2015, 04:57:51 pm »
...As to Baez, he would have to look really good final two months of season to be a centerpiece, which I expect. As to his Ks, keep in mind that his BR 162-game K pace with Cubs last season was 296!! So, to project him at 180--a 100+ K reduction, is giving him every benefit of the doubt. Think he is a near-lock to be there, optimistically.....

Think it's unrealistic to envision Baez getting down to 180-K.  I think either we (or other GM's) need to love him as a 200+ K-guy, or else don't love him quite so much. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2015, 05:12:53 pm »
Think Gray has similar value to Hamels. Both guys with 4 years of control. Yes, Gray is way younger but Hamels has history of good health and showing no signs of decline. Gray is little guy who throws heck out of ball and who knows the toll to come, even short-term. All pitchers are risky. Beyond 4 years, there is no club control and both fall into vast universe of floating pitchers.

The paydown in Hamels deal (including Harrison take-back) makes Hamels about a $13 per year pitcher to Rangers. When Gray hits arb, and assuming another stellar season in 2016, he will likely hit double figures per season immediately as first year arb guy--with significant raises next two seasons. So, real difference in salaries over 4-year period not as much as at first glance.

So, bottom line---guessing similar package as Hamels. Think what I proposed, with caveats mentioned, definitely there in value range. Similar package as Bowden proposal re. hamels-to-cubs. Key there is that Rangers preferred Alfaro to Baez--makes sense for them as Baez barely past injury and Cubs didn't have anybody similar to Harrison.

As to why A's would trade Gray---talk to Olney. He seems as keyed-in to industry scuttlebuck as anyone out there. Just going by his firm conviction that Gray will be traded.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2015, 05:51:11 pm »
I think that the asking price for Gray would be Bryant or Russell, and if Baez were to come up today and excel for the rest of the season, he could be the second piece of the trade.

In my opinion, Gray would be expected to bring back MUCH more than Hamels did.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2015, 06:10:01 pm »
Why?  Explain.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2015, 06:16:12 pm »
Because Gray is a much better value than Hamels.  Just as good a pitcher, much younger, can be extended or resigned with less risk, and has a much lower risk of non-injury decline than Hamels.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2015, 06:46:28 pm »
Price is the only pitcher to get $10 million in his 4th year and he was a super 2 with a Cy Young. Even if Gray gets $10, $14, $20 he is still only $11 million AAV and in his prime. Gray has much more value than Hamels.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2015, 06:55:14 pm »
To put is some $ terms.  Gray is going to a roughly 5 fWAR pitcher this year.  If he does that for 4 years at $8 million/WAR that is a $160 million value.  Let's overshoot his arbitation salaries and go $.5, $4, $10, $20.  These numbers are way to high, but that is $34.5 million over 4 years.  His excess value is $125.5 million.  Hamels brought back 3 top 100 guys with maybe half that excess value.

And you need to discount that value by at least 25% based on the breakdown rate of pitchers.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2015, 06:57:41 pm »
Key there is that Rangers preferred Alfaro to Baez--makes sense for them as Baez barely past injury and Cubs didn't have anybody similar to Harrison.

Really?

And what reason is there to believe the Cubs were offering Baez?

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2015, 07:27:54 pm »
Gray and Hamels have identical 6.9 f-WAR 2014-15 to date.

Love Gray--that's why brought up the subject--but, for me, an established Ace at Hamels age, with no history of arm problems,  is at least as good a bet for excellence in next 4 years as a guy with a two-year history in majors--especially an unusually small starting pitcher like Gray.

Think there is a tendency to assume, at first glance, that a young guy has a long run with club he's with now. But, in the modern free agent era, here today, gone in free agency. Think have to think of both guys as same years of control. Once you get into that reality, you might re-think differently.

Also, Hamels has been pitching in worst situation possible in 2015. Bad ballclub, bad defense behind him, and constant intensive, trade hangover for over a year as he takes mound.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2015, 07:40:13 pm »
Hamels is at the age when pitchers can largely be counted on to decline year over year and costs significantly more than Gray.

Gray won't be traded, but if he is, he'll cost a LOT more than Hamels.