Bleacher Bums Forum

Scott Boras is Arietta's agent.  Anyone want to guess what Boras will ask for demand this off-season's arbitration?

I expect Boras will submit an offer for a minimum of $15 million as Rick Porcello was given $12.5 million by the Red Sox to avoid arbitration last winter.  Then again with the Red Sox giving Porcello a 4 year/$82.5 million contract in April I wouldn't be surprised if Boras asks somewhere between $18-$20 million just for the 2016 season.


 

Obviously, dramatic difference hitting with two strikes compared to hitting with no strikes. If you were giving a baseball statistical tutorial to a novice, you'd start by showing your student what hitters hit on each count.

Gammons website today has charts on this (see link). Cubs are amazing. Worst two-strike hitters in MLB and best no-strike hitters in MLB. And, get into most two-strike counts in MLB--which isn't too hot if you're going to be the worst group of two-strike hitters.

Of course, all the two-strike counts probably a factor in deep counts and high pitches per PA that Cubs rack up (and high walks), but quite a contrast between what Cubs do with two strikes and what KC does with two strikes. Also probably a factor in Cubs woes scoring runners from 3B with less than two outs.

Hitting with two strikes sucks for everybody. And Cubs suck more than anybody doing it. So, something to be addressed going forward.

I'm not really sure you can make anything of this, but here are the youngsters results with an 0-2 count (K%)

Schwarber  .146/.176/.354  (57.9)
Soler          .143/.178/.271  (52.9)
Baez           .125/.125/.292  (54.2)
Russell        .191/.221/.270  (50.1)

Rizzo           .210/.228/.266  (32.3)
Bryant         .190/.270/.358  (59.9)

So I wanted to see what the besides the difference in OPS what the runs production and strike outs for the Cubs was

Cubs- 689 runs
2 strikes 233 runs, 1518 K's
0 strikes 220 runs
Batter Ahead 243 runs, 234 K's
Even  271 runs, 459 K's
Pitcher Ahead 175 runs, 825 K's

Royals- 724 runs
2 strikes- 239, 973 K
0 strikes- 234 runs
Batter Ahead- 274 runs, 144 K's
Even 264 runs, 257 K's
Pitcher Ahead 186 runs, 572 K's

With 2 strikes 6 runs, with the pitcher ahead 11 runs. 

Some practical questions:
1.  Can some of the young Cubs improve their pitch recognition?  Probably yes.  Unfamiliar pitcher has advantage.  Cub bats should get better at recognizing deliveries and pitch sequences. 
2.  Can some of the young Cubs improve as 2-strike hitters?  Probably yes, to limited degree.  There are techniques to cut down on swings in unfavorable counts. 
3.  Will some of the young Cubs become less patient earlier in counts?  I think variably yes.  Russell already adjusted in that direction, I think.  A concern of course is that guys will be so afraid of 2-strike counts that they unproductively chase on earlier counts.  But I think some could perhaps expand their "worth-swinging-at" scope earlier in counts to good effect. 
4.  Is there any possibility that if Baez is expected to be a regular starter, that the K-volume and the 2-strike ineffectiveness won't get more pronounced? 

Keep in mind that Cubs drew 567 walks in 2015 and Royals drew 383 walks.  That is an enormous # of baserunners to the advantage of Cubs.  And, of course, Cubs outhomer Royals by a lot.

So, the modest difference in runs and counts between these clubs, noted above, is a product of Cubs drawing walks--even in two-strike counts.  So, if Fowler walks on a 3-2 pitch and Rizzo homers, Cubs get "credit" for a 2-strike run.  That is walking, not hitting. Can't emphasize that enough.  Walks are great but.....

It is very good that Cubs draw a lot of walks but lack of good contact hitting profile manifests itself in many ways--such as performance with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. Cubs still draw walks but hit miserably.  Cubs with RISP:  211-333-332.  Royals were 278-356-430.  Even though Royals had fewer 2 outs, RISP situations (725 to 766), Royals outscored Cubs 243 to 199 in these situations.  Royals even have much better iso power than Cubs in these situations.

And, of course, when you face better pitching in post-season, Cubs advantage in walks likely is going to be more modest.  Situational hitting becomes more important than in regular season.  Even the luck factor is advantageous to clubs who are good at putting the ball in play.

So, some can moan and groan about bad hitting luck in NLCS and try to obfuscate what is actually going on, the truth is that ridiculously high Ks is something to avoid, if possible, and 2-strike counts suck. 

Let's keep the homers and walks and do something about the weaker components of the offense.  We know what those are.

I think it's preferable for a young hitter to err on the side of patience (ala Bryant) rather than overaggressiveness.  Viewed in that way, it isn't too surprising that they were often in difficult 2-strike counts.  As they gain experience, they will learn to take fewer meatballs early in the count without becoming overaggressive.  That will translate into better postseason success.

Good hitters learn to guess. Guessing pitch type and location and what pitcher is trying to do.  Harder to guess when lack big league experience.  Hitters HAVE to guess.  Pitchers are just too good to just react without a plan of attack for the hitter.  So, patience vs. overaggressiveness, sure, but a lot going on out there.

Greatest hitter of last 75 years was Ted Williams and everybody should listen to Ted Williams when he talked about guessing.  Basic point is that if you're not guessing, you are not applying your accumulated knowledge about the pitcher, the count, the overall hitting situation.  You are just reacting--and that's not good enough. Williams was adamant about hitters learning to guess.

So, when looking at Cubs young hitters, I would like to think that all of them are smart enough and will work hard to become better at guessing.  Bryant, in particular, I'm confident will get better.  He seemed to be fooled a lot and the more he learns, the better he will become at guessing. 

Guessing is just another form of learning to adjust at the big league level.  On the pitcher side of things, Maddux was a master guesser, right?  Had uncanny knack of out-thinking the hitter.  So, Cubs young hitters have to learn to guess better. 

When you see a hitter who is totally clueless, such as Baez in 2014 when he was striking out a 280 K pace, the hitter isn't even in a position to guess.  He is so clueless with his approach, that just reacting virtually 100% of time.  Dead meat.

Of course, good guessing is helped by getting into good hitters counts.  Tough to guess with two strikes.  But, we all have seen what Rizzo does lately there and it's a form of guessing too--the adjustments that he makes.

Sometimes we see a hitter take a good pitch to hit and wonder why.  Often, the hitter just guessed wrong and not ready to take a good swing. It happens--even to Ted Williams.  Lost that one.

Better guessing for Cubs young hitters--with experience and better hitting acumen--maybe those pitches will be hit hard.  Somewhat fewer Ks too by putting ball in play before reaching two-strike counts.

....So, some can moan and groan about bad hitting luck in NLCS and try to obfuscate what is actually going on, the truth is that ridiculously high Ks is something to avoid, if possible, and 2-strike counts suck. 

Let's keep the homers and walks and do something about the weaker components of the offense.  We know what those are.

Not sure how possible that's going to be.  Obviously all intertwined.  Hard to know whether there's anything much that can be done about it.  As I noted, I think some of the young guys can probably improve in marginal ways.  But Bryant is always going to K like mad and swing-and-miss a ton.  Baez, whether with us or somebody else, is always going to swing-and-miss a lot and K like made.  I think Russell and Soler each have a chance to reduce the swing-and-miss and their K-rates substantially; but Russell will probably always be a pretty high swing-and-miss guy, even if not necessarily to the Bryant/Baez extreme.  Schwarber may improve some, too, I think, but he's almost certainly going to remain a very high-whiffer too.  I suppose one hope is that some will get more "respect" benefits from ball-strike umps? 

At the team level, they tried to address it by adding a guy like LaStella.  Not sure he's been a big board favorite yet.  Maybe if he's healthy all year next year, we'll end up liking him, hard to guess.  Adding Baez as a season-long guy, perhaps as a regular starter, could amp up the contact issue substantially.  So, in a sense it really should get worse, before it gets better. 

As Ron noted, if down the road Montero and Fowler were gone with Almora and Contreras in their places, those would be some lower-K guys, although Almora also dropping the walks/power/OBP at the same time probably.