Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 30395 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2015, 07:40:51 pm »
Really?

And what reason is there to believe the Cubs were offering Baez?

Hoyer in an interview said most teams where asking for Baez.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2015, 07:57:44 pm »
Hoyer in an interview said most teams where asking for Baez.

Most teams were ASKING for Baez....

So, again, what reason is there to believe the Cubs were OFFERING Baez?  It would seem to me that if most teams were ASKING for Baez, and the Cubs didn't trade him, that would seem to indicate that the Cubs were not offering him, or even willing to trade him.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2015, 08:22:11 pm »
So, again, what reason is there to believe the Cubs were OFFERING Baez?  It would seem to me that if most teams were ASKING for Baez, and the Cubs didn't trade him, that would seem to indicate that the Cubs were not offering him, or even willing to trade him.

That is a huge leap.  It involved 2 teams discussing a package of players, neither team was able to find a value that they were willing to trade.  To assume that it was Baez, without knowledge of the negotiations is not something I would be comfortable with.

BullingersEars

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2015, 08:44:39 pm »
Start with Soler and Baez for Gray.

Sign Price.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2015, 09:05:50 pm »
Gray and Hamels have identical 6.9 f-WAR 2014-15 to date.

Love Gray--that's why brought up the subject--but, for me, an established Ace at Hamels age, with no history of arm problems,  is at least as good a bet for excellence in next 4 years as a guy with a two-year history in majors--especially an unusually small starting pitcher like Gray.

The ten pitchers baseball-reference.com lists as most similar to Hamels by age are the following:
Jake Peavy (953)
Doug Drabek (951)
Kevin Appier (948)
Dan Haren (947)
Jose Rijo (945)
Zack Greinke (936)
Bob Welch (935)
Sid Fernandez (935)
Tim Lincecum (931)
Jim Bunning (931)
And here is why: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=hamelco01:Cole%20Hamels&st=age&compage=30&age=30

Of those, I believe only Bunning really offered considerable value after they were the same age Hamels at the end of last season.  Bunning had a WAR of about 32 over his next five years; Lincecum has only this season after he was the same age as Hamels at the end of last year, and Lincecum has been nothing more than a replacement value pitcher this year; Sid Fernandez about 3.7; Welch 11.5; Grienke is at 6.6 this year; Rijo was injured for the next five years; Haren a .8 for his three and a half seasons since he was the same age; Appier 9.7 over the next 5 years; Drabek 2.9 over the next five; Peavey 8.6 for his next four and a half season.

Forgive me for thinking that is not a strong indication Hamels should be counted on to remain a strong pitcher after this season.

Gray, on the other hand, BEFORE this season had his ten top comps  and their WAR in their next 5 years as follows:
Matt Morris (991) 9.6
Pedro Astacio (988) 5.2
Jeremy Hellickson (981) 2.9 over three and a half years
Joey Hamilton (979)  8.6
Freddie Fitzsimmons (978)  8.8
Roscoe Miller (975)  1.4
Dan Schatzeder (975)  3.8
Doc Medich (974)  10.3
David Palmer (974)  5.9
Steve Gromek (972  7.6

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2015, 09:07:59 pm »
That is a huge leap.  It involved 2 teams discussing a package of players, neither team was able to find a value that they were willing to trade.  To assume that it was Baez, without knowledge of the negotiations is not something I would be comfortable with.

I am not really saying it was Baez, but merely pointing out that given what little we do know, it is far more reasonable to conclude the Cubs were NOT offering Baez than to assume that the Cubs WERE offering him.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2015, 09:09:30 pm »
Gray does strike me as an arm issue waiting to happen.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2015, 09:13:08 pm »
Every pitcher in the major and minor leagues is an arm issue waiting to happen.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2015, 09:22:53 pm »
I think I'd prefer to sign Price for whatever he'd ask than **** our farm system for Gray.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2015, 09:26:41 pm »
But if all it takes is the Hendricks, Baez, Torres package that CUBluejays mentioned then sign me up yesterday.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2015, 09:35:40 pm »
If Gray performs as well over the next five years as the pitcher who did the best of any of the ten pitchers he was most similar to thru the end of last year, he would produce a net WAR during that time of 10.3.

It would not be at all difficult for Hendricks and Baez to far exceed that over the next five years, with Torres also looking as if he ha an excellent chance of being a serious contributor at the major league level.

papa smurf

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2015, 10:27:29 pm »
You don't need near that if Smurf is trading him.    (JK Smurf)
funny curt lol

PRCubFan

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2015, 06:37:03 pm »
Anyone know when we finally get an extra year of control on Baez?  I'm ready to see what he can do.  Castro has a .380 OPS since the all star break.  He can't hit.  Let him take a week off and see if Baez can give us something.  Maybe hit Russel 6th and Baez 9th to take the pressure off initially. 

DelMarFan

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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2015, 06:44:34 pm »
Baez only had 55 days of service coming into the year, so he gained an extra year of control some time in mid-June.