Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51129 times)

davep · « **Reply #900 on:** September 11, 2015, 11:29:01 pm »

Quote from: CUBluejays on September 11, 2015, 11:16:31 pm

I think right now the chances are pretty low that the Cubs are going to sign any specific free agent. My only point is it won't be for a lack of money.

I agree. They have several new income streams from the additional seats, the two jumbotrons and the two (three?) rooftop businesses that they purchased. In addition, their TV and radio contracts will be tossing off more income than prior to this year.

But I don't think that this front office is into the game of overpaying for high end free agent talent.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #901 on:** September 11, 2015, 11:58:56 pm »

Quote from: CurtOne on September 11, 2015, 11:19:48 pm

I wouldn't be shocked if Fowler doesn't re-up on an offer, Bryant may end up in CF. Just a wild guess.

Baez says his favorite position is CF...

Reb · « **Reply #902 on:** September 12, 2015, 12:15:58 am »

Here are some numbers re. 2016.

1. Unrealistic that Montero jettisoned. I would include his $14.

2. CF. We can speculate about Bryant or Baez as starting CF, but very unlikely to happen. If Cubs bring back Fowler, will be $10 and up, depending on if accepts $16 qualifying offer for year one and how any extension is negotiated. Jackson, alternatively, will cost close to $9. Could trade for somebody. But, unrealistic to figure this position goes from near $10 to non-arb salary.

3. CBJ noted that entirety of Lester 2015 signing bonus came out of Tanaka "savings." That's how Cubs got to $120 opening day payroll in 2015. Otherwise, they don't have $120 to spend to open 2015.

4. Assuming $9 in CF for 2016, that puts Cubs at about $109 for 2016, assuming no Castro, who is traded. With Castro still on board at just under $8, payroll comes in at about $117. This includes arb raises for the players I've already mentioned (Strop, Wood, Coghlan), newbie arb guys (Rondon, Grimm), Soler $1 increase, and I'm figuring about $10 salary for Arrieta. That may be on low side for Arrieta, given potential CY award. $109 without Castro, $117 with Castro. So.....

5. Add Price at close to $30, Zobrist near $15. That's $154 payroll without Castro, $162 with Castro...but still not done.

6. $154 and $162 assumes no bullpen additions. But, there likely will be additions at some cost. Some veterans will be brought in to replace Motte, Hunter, Jackson, Rodney--guys who racked up innings in 2015. This will not be done entirely from within. Could cost an additonal $6-10 for vet relievers.

7. Bottom line, we're looking at somewhere between $160 and $172 payroll, with Price and Zobrist and couple of new relievers.

8. Would be great to see 2016 payroll such as above but think a bit of wishful thinking to assume that kind of jump from 2015, especially in view of Cubs reaching $120 payroll in 2015 only by applying Tanaka savings. One could argue that 2015 opening day payroll was really closer to a budgeted $100. Has anyone with Cubs said or implied that kind of payroll jump? Links?

Jes Beard · « **Reply #903 on:** September 12, 2015, 12:31:32 am »

Quote from: CUBluejays on September 11, 2015, 11:58:56 pm

Baez says his favorite position is CF...

Quote from: Jes Beard on September 11, 2015, 09:08:27 pm

Two things some of seem to be overlooking are as follow:

1) Alberto Almora. It is unlikely the Cubs would want to tie up much money for very long on a CFer when they likely still view Almora as a high quality, low cost option available for multiple years beginning in 2017. Considering his speed, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Baez in CF for at least 30 games in 2016, helping to bridge the gap to Almora.

Quote from: Jes Beard on September 11, 2015, 08:46:42 pm

I don't think Maddon would look at Castro as the utility player. Just a couple of days ago, Maddon was gushing about Baez' versatility, how he can do everything and play everywhere. I think there is a good chance, better than 50-50, that unless the Cubs get an offer that blows them way this winter, they will keep Castro, and plan on Baez as a super utility player, infield and OF, with the prospect of more than 140 starts in that role, even if no one went down to injury, forcing him to become the temporary regular at a position.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #904 on:** September 12, 2015, 12:32:44 am »

Quote from: Reb on September 12, 2015, 12:15:58 am

7. Bottom line, we're looking at somewhere between $160 and $172 payroll, with Price and Zobrist and couple of new relievers.

Bottom line, the Cubs are not going to even be in the bidding for Zobrist.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #905 on:** September 12, 2015, 12:53:52 am »

1.) Not unrealistic, you just don't want to do it.

C- Montero $14, Ross $2.5
1B- Rizzo $5
2B- Baez, LaStella $1
SS- Russel $.527
3B- Bryant $.527
LF- Schwarber $.527
CF- Jackson $8
RF- Soler $3.67
OF- Zobrist- $15
OF- $.527
INF- $.527
SP- Price $30, Lester $25, Arrieta $10, Hammel $9, Hendrick $.527
RP- Rondon $2, Strop $4, Grimm $1, Rameriez $.527, Edwards $.527, Lefty $5, Left $1

$140.386 million
+Dead Money $152.58

With extra money and the money from the IFA pool that is within what the Cubs can do.

8.) No one includes Lester's signing bonus in the $122 figure, so one could argue that the Cubs payroll was already $137 million + around $20 million for IFA.

Reb · « **Reply #906 on:** September 12, 2015, 02:35:48 am »

Okay, let's use your numbers for sake of discussion (think you're a bit light on arb Grimm and Rondon, but fine), you have $152.58, including E. Jackson dead money. But, you left out Coghlan ( I have at about $3.5). Think Coghlan stays as all around guy who will get significant ABs. That pushes you close to $156. That is your bottom line.

But, you also assume T. Wood is non-tendered. Sure seems like he's a go-to guy for Maddon. That is debatable. He adds about $6 arb. My sense is that Maddon will push to keep him for 2016. Now, we're at $162.

Then, of course, no Castro at $7.85 or so. Maybe he goes--I think he goes--but maybe Cubs take a contract back to move him, maybe he stays as some suggest here. If he stays, you're at just under $170.

This $156-$170 range, using your numbers, is a huge increase from 2015. Think it's a bit fanciful to assume that kind of payroll. Where's the evidence for that? Not seeing a hint of that in media, at least so far. Hope you are right, but a dubious assumption, seems to me.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #907 on:** September 12, 2015, 06:15:24 am »

Quote from: Reb on September 12, 2015, 02:35:48 am

Okay, let's use your numbers for sake of discussion (think you're a bit light on arb Grimm and Rondon, but fine), you have $152.58, including E. Jackson dead money. But, you left out Coghlan ( I have at about $3.5). Think Coghlan stays as all around guy who will get significant ABs. That pushes you close to $156. That is your bottom line.

But, you also assume T. Wood is non-tendered. Sure seems like he's a go-to guy for Maddon. That is debatable. He adds about $6 arb. My sense is that Maddon will push to keep him for 2016. Now, we're at $162.

Then, of course, no Castro at $7.85 or so. Maybe he goes--I think he goes--but maybe Cubs take a contract back to move him, maybe he stays as some suggest here. If he stays, you're at just under $170.

This $156-$170 range, using your numbers, is a huge increase from 2015. Think it's a bit fanciful to assume that kind of payroll. Where's the evidence for that? Not seeing a hint of that in media, at least so far. Hope you are right, but a dubious assumption, seems to me.

Two other things there have not been a hint of in the media are that the Cubs either plan to shed the players which would be required to avoid a serious increase in payroll, or that the Cubs have no intention of pursuing Price because of salary considerations.

Ron · « **Reply #908 on:** September 12, 2015, 08:26:28 am »

I guess it's a deeply ingrained habit for Cub fans to start worrying and plotting about "next year" in September. But it seems a little strange to be reading that in September of this season. Not complaining, just observing.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #909 on:** September 12, 2015, 08:55:30 am »

Quote from: Reb on September 12, 2015, 02:35:48 am

Okay, let's use your numbers for sake of discussion (think you're a bit light on arb Grimm and Rondon, but fine), you have $152.58, including E. Jackson dead money. But, you left out Coghlan ( I have at about $3.5). Think Coghlan stays as all around guy who will get significant ABs. That pushes you close to $156. That is your bottom line.

But, you also assume T. Wood is non-tendered. Sure seems like he's a go-to guy for Maddon. That is debatable. He adds about $6 arb. My sense is that Maddon will push to keep him for 2016. Now, we're at $162.

Then, of course, no Castro at $7.85 or so. Maybe he goes--I think he goes--but maybe Cubs take a contract back to move him, maybe he stays as some suggest here. If he stays, you're at just under $170.

This $156-$170 range, using your numbers, is a huge increase from 2015. Think it's a bit fanciful to assume that kind of payroll. Where's the evidence for that? Not seeing a hint of that in media, at least so far. Hope you are right, but a dubious assumption, seems to me.

First year are guys aren't going to get a ton of money. Arrieta at $10 is in line with what Price got as a third year super two guy.

I left off Coghlan because there would be no place to play him. Schwarber starts in LF. And Soler in RF. Zobrist would get time in the OF and INF.

Castro also would become redundant with Zobrist, so he goes too. Paying Castro nearly $8 million or Coghlan nearly $4 million to be a pinch hitter or rare DH makes little sense and there is better uses of that money. Now if Schwarber was the starting catcher, you could find the playing time for one of them by moving Bryant to the OF platooning Coghlan in LF.

Wood is getting paid as a starter this year. Very few non closers are making $6 million/year, so he is either going to get DFA'd or sign a cheaper extension. Richard has been getting the high leverage innings of late, FWIW.

Even with your numbers a $170 million payroll is $20 million more than what the Cubs have paid this year to get pro and amateur talent. With higher revenues coming in that wouldn't be a problem.

Ron · « **Reply #910 on:** September 12, 2015, 09:28:01 am »

I would be very surprised if any of the following happen before next season: Coghlan is traded, Montero is traded, Zobrist is signed (simply because there are others who play the role he did with Maddon in Tampa Bay). I also expect Ross to be back if he wants to be, perhaps to help Lester make the transition to another catcher.

I am guessing that Castro will be traded (assuming a decent deal is reached), but won't be surprised if he is not. I have no idea whether the Cubs will sign Price or some other high end pitcher, but doubt that a budget cap will prevent that. Theo and Ricketts have said that the money would be there when the time came, and the time has come (both in terms of the team becoming a contender and the financial circumstances for the organization changing).

Playtwo · « **Reply #911 on:** September 12, 2015, 09:40:41 am »

I would really like to know management's thinking about CF for next season.

Playtwo · « **Reply #912 on:** September 12, 2015, 09:48:18 am »

Over his last 26 games, Castro's OPS is over .900!

brjones · « **Reply #913 on:** September 12, 2015, 09:49:36 am »

I hope they find a way to extend Fowler. He's not likely to accept the qualifying offer, but maybe that will keep his price on the free agent market low enough so the Cubs can work out a three year deal. He's been such a big part of the surge since the All Star break.

CurtOne · « **Reply #914 on:** September 12, 2015, 09:53:58 am »

fwiw, it's reported that Zobrist is very happy in KC and would like to stay. fwiw

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Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51129 times)

davep

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CUBluejays

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Reb

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Jes Beard

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