Bleacher Bums Forum

the other award (under any name) for the best position player.

I propose the Mick Kelleher Award.

I was just going through MLB Trade Rumors and Gordo had a piece that the Cubs are estimating a 275,000 increase in fans this year and that could lead to an extra $20+ million in revenue.

Cubs began this season at about $120 payroll. Coming off books from 2015 opening day for 2016 are Motte and Wada (each $4), and Denorfia, Castillo, Coke (at combined about $7).

But, Lester goes up by $5 for 2016, Montero by $2, Fowler by $6 (if accepts QO), Soler by $1, Rondon and Grimm enter arb for first time from near-minimum, Strop, Coghlan, Wood (non-tender?) get arb increases, and, if course, major arb increase for Arrieta (from paltry $3.6 in 2015.

Trading Castro deletes about $7. Still, looks like a net payroll increase--before any additions.

2016 payroll? Who knows, but adding Price--on top of status quo increases--seems to require more than a $20 payroll bump.

Your forgetting almost $10 million for Fowler coming off the books.  Monterro could also clear $14 million.

Lester's base goes up $5 million, but he got a $30 million signing bonus so I'm not sure how Cot's handled that.

The $20 million in attendance isn't the only increase in revenue as well. The budgets for the draft and IFA will also be a lot less as well.

Didn't forget Fowler. Included him, with salary bump. Think expectation is QO for him--probably won't accept, but somebody has to play there. Pretty sure Cubs won't save his entire 2015 salary for CF.

Think very unlikely Montero is traded and Schwarber assumes starting catcher to open 2016. Yeah, that would save lots of payroll money, but that impacts handling of pitching staff and Schwarber not ready for all that. Think we have to figure Montero's 2016 salary (with bump too).

Cots includes a $5 bump for Lester.

Also, keep in mind that the $120 for 2015 supposedly included big bucks "saved" from the Tanaka non-signing. That has now been spent.

Thanks for that note about Soler, brjones...that will make the Myrtle Beach game even more interesting!

Didn't forget Fowler. Included him, with salary bump. Think expectation is QO for him--probably won't accept, but somebody has to play there. Pretty sure Cubs won't save his entire 2015 salary for CF.

Think very unlikely Montero is traded and Schwarber assumes starting catcher to open 2016. Yeah, that would save lots of payroll money, but that impacts handling of pitching staff and Schwarber not ready for all that. Think we have to figure Montero's 2016 salary (with bump too).

Cots includes a $5 bump for Lester.

Also, keep in mind that the $120 for 2015 supposedly included big bucks "saved" from the Tanaka non-signing. That has now been spent.

The Tanka money went to Lester's signing bonus, he'd then be a -$25 million going into next year.  Most of the buzz is that the Cubs will give Fowler the QO offer and let him walk.  There is plenty of room to cut salaries on the roster and plenty of new money coming in. If Price signs elsewhere in the off season it won't be because the Cubs can't afford him.

Think it's unlikely Castro is back in 2016. Cubs can take pose, as Craig posits, that don't have to trade him...but, as practical matter, awkward for everybody to keep him as a utility guy going forward. Castro has been good trooper for tail end of this season but wouldn't assume that for 2016.

I expect Castro's future depends on what other teams offer.  Two extreme possibilities:
1.  "no-talent-return":  Cubs are so happy to offload Castro's salary and the awkwardness that they'll trade him without expecting any meaningful talent . 
2.  "great-talent-return":  Some teams think Castro is a terrific value, and will offer really good talent to get him. 

IN between "no-talent-return" and "great-talent-return" extremes is a vast middle ground.  My guess is that many shoppers will be interested in Castro only at cut-rate price, based on his poor hitting two of least three years, and on a perception many GM's may hold that he's soft/dumb/distracted.  If the offers aren't very strong at all, Cubs may or may not sell, depending on how they themselves evaluate him.  I'm not sure whether the "awkwardness" is that big of a drive; Castro is a mild personality, eager to please, dwarfed by the bigger/stronger personalities in the Cubs clubhouse.  I'm not predicting they won't trade him, but I can very easily envision them not doing so.  Designate Schwarber and Baez as the LF/2B starters; Coghlan and Castro formally "subs" who could play a ton and enable Maddon to adapt/adjust to almost any and every situation. 

More broadly, don't think we'd see all the current positional shuffling if Soler was healthy. Maddon has gone from a stifling 4-man bench to an 8-man bench. He loves that, fun for him, and keeps the regulars fresh. But tougher to do with the usual 4-man bench to open 2016.

I think a 12-man staff and a bench with Ross, Castro, LaStella, Coghlan, and Denorfia could be exceptionally functional.  Maddon could still flex a lot, platoon, mix-and-match, pinch hit.  Perhaps replace one or more of those guys with somebody with similar profile, or better.  Of course, that's assuming that Castro could hit when he got used, and that perhaps LaStella could too. 

.......There is plenty of room to cut salaries on the roster and plenty of new money coming in. If Price signs elsewhere in the off season it won't be because the Cubs can't afford him.

Where is the "plenty of room" to cut salary.

Think you're assuming Montero is traded--likely wrong assumption--and that Cubs save almost entirety of Fowler's salary filling CF--also likely wrong assumption.

Arb guys go up year to year, especially big Arrieta bump and arb newbies Rondon and Grimm. Other  arb guys too.  E. Jackson still on book for 2016. Lester and Montero and Soler contracts go up.  Maybe Wood is non-tendered--I doubt it.  Already mentioned the low cost FAs leaving. Where is the plenty of room to cut payroll?

Other than attendance bump, where are purported revenue jumps for 2016 coming from? And, I've never heard that int'l signings affect big league annual payroll. Doubt there's any meaningful correlation.

Don't know if 2016 payroll can accommodate Price or not, in addition to other moves Cubs might undertake (Zobrist? reliever(s) to replace Motte and/ or Wood? But, think it's fanciful to simply assume payroll can accommodate another $25-30 pitcher, given upward bumps from guys on hand.