Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51063 times)

Reb · « **Reply #885 on:** September 11, 2015, 05:30:21 pm »

Kind of interesting that a month ago folks here worried Cubs couldn't give Castro away--and now Dave suggests Cubs won't even shop Castro because of his bench value to Cubs.

Don't think Cubs brass think quite this way--going from one thing to another month-by-month (or is it week-by-week?). Think they will take realistic, long-term view of this situation.

For one thing, don't see too many $7 utility IFers. And, will be tougher to trade him later once he is viewed as a utility guy with escalating contract salaries.

We should be pleased that Castro, from the abyss, has bumped up his trade value a bit and that Cubs likely will do what clubs do when they have an expendable veteran who has been displaced. Expect a trade.

guest61 · « **Reply #886 on:** September 11, 2015, 05:40:24 pm »

I expect Starlin to be moved as well.

Chris27 · « **Reply #887 on:** September 11, 2015, 06:38:19 pm »

Soler doubled in his first AB tonight.

davep · « **Reply #888 on:** September 11, 2015, 06:46:43 pm »

I don't think that this front office changes from month to month either. They look to expectations of future performance.

Castro has been in the majors for 6 season - four very good ones and two rather bad ones. There is as much if not more reason to believe he will be better next year than to believe he will be worse.

Seven million per year is a lot for most utility infielders, but not if this particular utility infielder has Maddon for a manager who uses utility players extensively.

If the Cubs had a gaping hole to fill, there would be a large incentive to trade him to fill that hole. But they did not trade him this July in spite of their needs because they didn't get an offer that they felt was good enough. I see no reason to expect the offers this winter will be that much better, nor the holes to be filled to be bigger.

Time will tell.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #889 on:** September 11, 2015, 08:41:01 pm »

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 01:50:36 pm

Cubs began this season at about $120 payroll. Coming off books from 2015 opening day for 2016 are Motte and Wada (each $4), and Denorfia, Castillo, Coke (at combined about $7).

But, Lester goes up by $5 for 2016, Montero by $2, Fowler by $6 (if accepts QO), Soler by $1, Rondon and Grimm enter arb for first time from near-minimum, Strop, Coghlan, Wood (non-tender?) get arb increases, and, if course, major arb increase for Arrieta (from paltry $3.6 in 2015.

Trading Castro deletes about $7. Still, looks like a net payroll increase--before any additions.

2016 payroll? Who knows, but adding Price--on top of status quo increases--seems to require more than a $20 payroll bump.

I suspect the Cub front office and ownership do not view attendance as static, and that they likely believe that adding Price (or any ace pitcher) would so significantly increase the strength of the team that their presence on the roster would increase season ticket sales, and that their presence in the 2016 rotation would increase sales of tickets for individual games throughout the season, probably enough that, when combined with the mentioned $20M payroll bump would be more than enough to sign him -- IF the Cubs decide that is how they would like to spend the money. That approach would certainly have my support, but Theo hasn't been calling me lately for my input, so my support is likely meaningless.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #890 on:** September 11, 2015, 08:46:42 pm »

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 02:17:16 pm

Think it's unlikely Castro is back in 2016. Cubs can take pose, as Craig posits, that don't have to trade him...but, as practical matter, awkward for everybody to keep him as a utility guy going forward. Castro has been good trooper for tail end of this season but wouldn't assume that for 2016.

More broadly, don't think we'd see all the current positional shuffling if Soler was healthy. Maddon has gone from a stifling 4-man bench to an 8-man bench. He loves that, fun for him, and keeps the regulars fresh. But tougher to do with the usual 4-man bench to open 2016.

I don't think Maddon would look at Castro as the utility player. Just a couple of days ago, Maddon was gushing about Baez' versatility, how he can do everything and play everywhere. I think there is a good chance, better than 50-50, that unless the Cubs get an offer that blows them way this winter, they will keep Castro, and plan on Baez as a super utility player, infield and OF, with the prospect of more than 140 starts in that role, even if no one went down to injury, forcing him to become the temporary regular at a position.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #891 on:** September 11, 2015, 09:08:27 pm »

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 05:13:26 pm

Where is the "plenty of room" to cut salary.

Think you're assuming Montero is traded--likely wrong assumption--and that Cubs save almost entirety of Fowler's salary filling CF--also likely wrong assumption.

Arb guys go up year to year, especially big Arrieta bump and arb newbies Rondon and Grimm. Other arb guys too. E. Jackson still on book for 2016. Lester and Montero and Soler contracts go up. Maybe Wood is non-tendered--I doubt it. Already mentioned the low cost FAs leaving. Where is the plenty of room to cut payroll?

Other than attendance bump, where are purported revenue jumps for 2016 coming from? And, I've never heard that int'l signings affect big league annual payroll. Doubt there's any meaningful correlation.

Don't know if 2016 payroll can accommodate Price or not, in addition to other moves Cubs might undertake (Zobrist? reliever(s) to replace Motte and/ or Wood? But, think it's fanciful to simply assume payroll can accommodate another $25-30 pitcher, given upward bumps from guys on hand.

Two things some of seem to be overlooking are as follow:

1) Alberto Almora. It is unlikely the Cubs would want to tie up much money for very long on a CFer when they likely still view Almora as a high quality, low cost option available for multiple years beginning in 2017. Considering his speed, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Baez in CF for at least 30 games in 2016, helping to bridge the gap to Almora.

2) Wilson Contreras. Contreras simply performed too well in 2015 for the Cubs not to look at him as another likely high quality, low cost option for multiple years, and his own history of position versatility (24 minor league games at 1B, 16 in RF, 9 in LF, 93 games at 3B, and 3 at 2B) make him the kind Maddon is likely to love, particularly if paired with Schwarber to allow the Cubs to rotate the two of them between LF and C to keep both with relatively fresh hands and healthy bats. Perhaps not to start the season in 2016, but unless he develops some serious problems in Iowa in 2016, it is hard to imagine him not getting some playing time in the majors in 2016. He is also likely another young player the front office would have to have an overwhelming offer for before they would trade him.

Playtwo · « **Reply #892 on:** September 11, 2015, 09:09:04 pm »

Almora

Jes Beard · « **Reply #893 on:** September 11, 2015, 09:09:51 pm »

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 05:30:21 pm

Kind of interesting that a month ago folks here worried Cubs couldn't give Castro away....

Always lots of fools in the world.

Jes Beard · « **Reply #894 on:** September 11, 2015, 09:11:08 pm »

Quote from: Playtwo on September 11, 2015, 09:09:04 pm

Almora

Hey, before I posted I started spelling it "Almoro." I've fixed it now.

davep · « **Reply #895 on:** September 11, 2015, 09:16:06 pm »

He keeps changing his first name. Perhaps he is doing the same thing with his second name.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #896 on:** September 11, 2015, 10:42:30 pm »

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 05:13:26 pm

Where is the "plenty of room" to cut salary.

Think you're assuming Montero is traded--likely wrong assumption--and that Cubs save almost entirety of Fowler's salary filling CF--also likely wrong assumption.

Arb guys go up year to year, especially big Arrieta bump and arb newbies Rondon and Grimm. Other arb guys too. E. Jackson still on book for 2016. Lester and Montero and Soler contracts go up. Maybe Wood is non-tendered--I doubt it. Already mentioned the low cost FAs leaving. Where is the plenty of room to cut payroll?

Lester was paid $30 million this year. $15 million in a singing bonus+ $15 million base. -$10 million going into next year.
Montego would be another way to cut $14 million and get something of value.
Fowler $9.5 million
Castro $7 million
Motte $4.5 million
Wood $5.6 million
Wada $4 million
Denofria $2.6 million
Haren/Hunter/Jackson/Rodney $6-7 million
That is $49-50 million. Take out Montero and it is still $35-36 million.

Quote from: Reb on September 11, 2015, 05:13:26 pm

Think you're assuming Montero is traded--likely wrong assumption--and that Cubs save almost entirety of Fowler's salary filling CF--also likely wrong assumption.

Arb guys go up year to year, especially big Arrieta bump and arb newbies Rondon and Grimm. Other arb guys too. E. Jackson still on book for 2016. Lester and Montero and Soler contracts go up. Maybe Wood is non-tendered--I doubt it. Already mentioned the low cost FAs leaving. Where is the plenty of room to cut payroll?

Other than attendance bump, where are purported revenue jumps for 2016 coming from? And, I've never heard that int'l signings affect big league annual payroll. Doubt there's any meaningful correlation.

The Cubs will have a full year of the sign revenue, Toyota on the marquee, I believe the non-Comcast TV deals have escalators built in for better TV ratings. I can't remember when but the Comcast deal also starts to increase.

Did you already forget the Cubs drafts where the moved money from the picks to signing free agents? The Cubs will be spending only a couple million on IFA instead of $10+ million. That will pay for a relievers and the draft will be a few million less, so that can get a bench player.

There is plenty of money to pay Price, Zobrist, Hard throwing lefty reliever.

davep · « **Reply #897 on:** September 11, 2015, 10:58:21 pm »

I think there is very little chance that the Cubs will sign Price, and I think that they will not even sniff around at Zobrist. They are loaded with infielders, and with Schwarber in left and Bryant often in right, they are loaded with outfielders. They might be interested in Zobrist on a two year contract for center field, but I really doubt that Zobrist would be interested in a two year contract at his age.

CUBluejays · « **Reply #898 on:** September 11, 2015, 11:16:31 pm »

I think right now the chances are pretty low that the Cubs are going to sign any specific free agent. My only point is it won't be for a lack of money.

CurtOne · « **Reply #899 on:** September 11, 2015, 11:19:48 pm »

I wouldn't be shocked if Fowler doesn't re-up on an offer, Bryant may end up in CF. Just a wild guess.

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Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1) (Read 51063 times)

Reb

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