Bleacher Bums Forum

Schwarber was the first Cub to homer in both the first and second innings since .......................................

Schwarber was the first Cub to homer in both the first and second innings since .......................................

July 4

You have to act fast to beat me to the punch!

First year are guys aren't going to get a ton of money. Arrieta at $10 is in line with what Price got as a third year super two guy.

I left off Coghlan because there would be no place to play him.  Schwarber starts in LF. And Soler in RF. Zobrist would get time in the OF and INF.

Castro also would become redundant with Zobrist, so he goes too.  Paying Castro nearly $8 million or Coghlan nearly $4 million to be a pinch hitter or rare DH makes little sense and there is better uses of that money. Now if Schwarber was the starting catcher, you could find the playing time for one of them by moving Bryant to the OF platooning Coghlan in LF.

Wood is getting paid as a starter this year. Very few non closers are making $6 million/year, so he is either going to get DFA'd or sign a cheaper extension. Richard has been getting the high leverage innings of late, FWIW.

Even with your numbers a $170 million payroll is $20 million more than what the Cubs have paid this year to get pro and amateur talent. With higher revenues coming in that wouldn't be a problem.

Pretty sure that Cubs separate the major league budget from amateur procurement budget. No historical evidence that non-splurging int'l or having lower first round cost has any significant impact on player payroll.

Instead, at best, we've seen modest incremental increases in major league payroll. Been very clear that 2015 boost was dependent on banked Tanaka money.

Blind faith, I think, that Cubs will have this kind of one-year payroll increase. Don't see that until after 2019. You want Price badly, so eager to fantasize about massive payroll increase to fit him in.

My guess is Cubs are going to spit on shelling out $180-210 for Price. Would love to be wrong on that, but don't see it, realistically. Think will venture into FA pitching market but for significantly lesser cost guy. Also guessing will add a second starting pitcher through trade route.

There will be playing time for Coghlan . Think he's back. Expect Schwarber to catch 40 games and sit against some lefties. Think Zobrist will be high priority. Think Cubs will shop Soler (or Baez--more likely Soler) to acquire more starting pitching. Think we'll see bullpen acquisitions, perhaps one in a Castro deal.

Price strikes me as a budget buster-- because there will be costs to otherwise improve. Further, with Price at close to $200, how in the world are Cubs going to be in mix to re-sign Arrieta after 2017?

Let's be realistic.

Rosenthal video from today, "The Cubs have had a long standing interest in David Price, even prior to Joe Maddon coming on board."

The Cubs shorted the ameatuer budget back when the Tribune was selling the team to spend more money on the MLB team. The Cubs will be limited for at least the next two years on spending in the international market. It will either go to the MLB team or the Ricketts. I have zero problem with the Ricketts making money, but I think there is a good chance it gets shifted to the MLB team.

What the Cubs spent this year isn't that far off from what even your talking about. $122 million opening day, $15 million signing bonus and extra $7-8 million in trades and it gets you to $144 million + the money spent on the IFA and draft that won't be as high next year.

It's not $144. Money is always--every season irrespective of opening day payroll amount-- held back for in-season moves. Apples to apples is opening day payroll to opening day payroll.

Cots 2015 opening day payroll listing already includes a pro -rated portion of the Lester signing bonus. That's the official MLB accounting (for luxury tax purposes). The remainder of that bonus is part of the Tanaka money---an accounting carryover from previous seasons. But for that carryover, Cubs would not have budgeted as high as $122 in 2015. So, the "real" opening day budget was not $144 but actually somewhat less than $122 (taking into account the accounting carryover).

As to the Tribune days, that was Sam Zell shorting Peter to pay Paul to boost his selling price. That has less than zero relevance to anything going on today.

Regarding media reports linking Price to Cubs--maybe true, maybe not. We both hope it's true. But, as you know, most of these kind of reports come from player agents boosting the player's market.

Last point. Can you explain how Cubs fit Lester, Price, and Arrieta as a FA, into 2018 budget--two years before a new cable deal (also when Bryant and Russell and Hendricks become arb eligible)? Is Comcast going to cancel their deal two years early.

Suggested shopping Soler because (1) probably can get back very nice piece for him; (2) think having both Soler and Baez in lineup is a strikeout bridge too far, and (3) seeing some things about Soler that are somewhat troubling.

Agree that Soler has huge upside. Chance that could be big mistake trading him.

But, don't see much intensity with this guy, gives away too many ABs with what seems like erratic focus from AB to AB, inexplicably poor defender (Maddon atypically pointed out in presser that not coaches fault--they've worked hard with him on his defense), and have to wonder if stroke conducive to HR power. Yeah, maybe it's mostly inexperience--but I think maybe more than that. 

Would have to be something really, really good to move him but I won't be that surprised if he's moved.

Bottom line is that we are going to have a lot of talent and no place to play them all.  Somebody will be traded to improve the team, probably for pitching.  We are probably going to be disappointed in who's traded.

Soler has also spent about half his professional career on the DL.  I think that's a far bigger concern than any of the other potential issues.

Soler can probably still get really good value back this offseason.  If he has another underwhelming or injury-filled year next year, though, then it's too late.  The front office needs to make a decision on his future this offseason, so it's not going to be a surprise if he goes in a deal for a pitcher.