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Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 51133 times)

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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1005 on: September 18, 2015, 07:58:10 pm »
Striking out at 28 percent of at bats is SUBSTANTIALLY less than last year.

Batting average of .320 is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than last year.

His walk rate is not much lower than last year.

His fielding has been gold glove caliber at two positions.

Certainly a tiny sample size, but if he keeps this up, I can wait for the power to come back.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1006 on: September 18, 2015, 08:05:29 pm »
Quote from: davep on September 18, 2015, 07:58:10 pm
Striking out at 28 percent of at bats is SUBSTANTIALLY less than last year.

Batting average of .320 is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than last year.

His walk rate is not much lower than last year.

His fielding has been gold glove caliber at two positions.

Certainly a tiny sample size, but if he keeps this up, I can wait for the power to come back.

Agree. If Baez "tracks" at .313 BA,   .353 OBP, .438 SLG, .790 OPS (his stats in limited ABs since coming back), with excellent middle inf (and 3B) defense, I'd be pretty pleased with that.  Even though I too expect his power will come.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1007 on: September 18, 2015, 08:25:49 pm »
Baez isn't going to be a .320 hitter. I would hope we could all at least agree on that.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1008 on: September 18, 2015, 08:52:56 pm »
Nor is he going to be a .169 hitter.  I would hope we could agree on that.

I would be perfectly happy with a 280 hitter with 20 HRs.  and I think that is not an unreasonable expectation.  Combine that with gold glove defense at second or third base and you have a perpetual all star.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1009 on: September 18, 2015, 09:44:12 pm »
I find Baez nearly impossible to predict. Is he going to be happy being a 20-homer player when has the power for twice that many? At some point he's likely to revert to what's natural for him. Then we'll see if he can hit enough to be productive.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1010 on: September 18, 2015, 11:07:38 pm »
The Royals lost tonight, so now the Cubs have the same record as the Royals.  That means the Cubs are tied for the third best record in baseball...and they also have the third best record in the NL Central.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1011 on: September 18, 2015, 11:11:20 pm »
I agree that if Baez reverts to his old style of swinging from his heels on every pitch, he will do poorly.  If he continues to implement his new technique, he may well be a super star.

Prediction?  I have no idea which will prevail.  But I think it is well worth the Cubs while to keep him for a while to try to find out.  He has the talent to be one of the best in baseball.  Many in the past have had that talent, and failed to perform up to it.  But there are so few like that out there, it is best to see if he can make it big.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1012 on: September 18, 2015, 11:18:37 pm »
Javier Baez will be 23 on December 1.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1013 on: September 18, 2015, 11:50:42 pm »
Cubs playoff odds are at 100.0% on Fangraphs, and the odds of anyone but the Cubs, Pirates, or Cardinals winning a wild card spot is 0.0%:

Page Not Found | FanGraphs Baseball
fangraphs.com


But there's still a 6.5% chance the Cardinals will be a wild card, with the Cubs or Pirates taking the division title.  Let's cheer for that.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1014 on: September 19, 2015, 12:00:58 am »
From ESPN:
[MacPhail has an overall reputation as a pitcher hunter, and in the past, he's been quoted as saying, "Buy the bats. Grow the arms." John Manuel of Baseball America, who spoke with Salisbury about the pitchers that could be waiting for the Phillies next June, projected Florida's A.J. Puk and high school duo Jason Groome and Riley Pint to make up the top three pitchers in next year's draft class.]

What I found interesting is that is the opposite of what Theo has stated.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1015 on: September 19, 2015, 12:20:36 am »
Giants lose, so the irrelevant magic number is down to 7.

The relevant magic numbers are 17 (finish ahead of the Pirates for the top wild card) and 22 (finish ahead of the Cardinals for the division).  Hopefully, they're 13 and 18 by the end of the weekend.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1016 on: September 19, 2015, 05:21:21 am »
Quote from: CurtOne on September 19, 2015, 12:00:58 am
From ESPN:
[MacPhail has an overall reputation as a pitcher hunter, and in the past, he's been quoted as saying, "Buy the bats. Grow the arms."

What I found interesting is that is the opposite of what Theo has stated.

I wonder which one has the better track record....
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1017 on: September 19, 2015, 07:11:59 am »
Quote from: CurtOne on September 19, 2015, 12:00:58 am
From ESPN:
[MacPhail has an overall reputation as a pitcher hunter, and in the past, he's been quoted as saying, "Buy the bats. Grow the arms." John Manuel of Baseball America, who spoke with Salisbury about the pitchers that could be waiting for the Phillies next June, projected Florida's A.J. Puk and high school duo Jason Groome and Riley Pint to make up the top three pitchers in next year's draft class.]

What I found interesting is that is the opposite of what Theo has stated.

I think during the steroid era that would be a defensible position. Pitchers where at a premium. It isn't like the Cubs aren't trying to develop pitchers either, they just aren't using first round picks to do it. I would much rather have a team built on bats though.
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1018 on: September 19, 2015, 09:34:14 am »
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Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1019 on: September 19, 2015, 09:46:31 am »
Kris Bryant having fun driving something besides baseballs.  Pretty cool.

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/09/18/kris-bryant-drives-for-lyft-surprises-folks-with-awesomeness/
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