Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)  (Read 51145 times)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18846
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1725 on: October 30, 2015, 04:42:56 pm »
I'd be all for the Cubs keeping the HR and walks and losing the strikeouts.  Like Craig said this is going to be on the periphery, unless you want to get rid of some really good players.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16248
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1726 on: October 30, 2015, 04:45:55 pm »
....Something to consider when comparing these numbers
Cubs pitchers 374 PA .114/.148/.164  .313 OPS
Cubs PH         287 PA .201/.274/.317   .590 OPS
Royals DH       646 PA .287/.353/.477  .830 OPS
Royals PH +P= 67 PA


Very good point. 

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1727 on: October 30, 2015, 06:16:20 pm »
Cubs.com letter from Tom Ricketts

Dear Cubs Fans,

Wow. What a season! A week later, it's still hard to put into words just how special this past year was for all of us.

On behalf of my family and the entire Cubs organization, we want to thank you. Without your patience and support, we never would have been able to begin building a championship-caliber team the right way.

From the many great team victories to some incredible individual performances, this team got us to believe in magic and showed us anything is possible when you set your mark high. Led by a dynamic, one-of-a-kind manager and fueled by youthful enthusiasm and remarkable talent, our team not only competed, but proved to be a real contender. With the third-best record in baseball, we experienced a 24-win turnaround from 2014 and our first postseason berth since 2008.

None of us will ever forget our October games. The vibe in the ballpark was electric thanks to your constant energy. With every "Go Cubs Go" chorus and every W flag flown, the team felt your support. Defeating the Cardinals in our first-ever postseason matchup and clinching a series at Wrigley Field for the first time in franchise history was truly incredible. While we fell short against the Mets in the National League Championship Series, our ultimate goal remains - to win a World Series. Now more than ever, I believe we are in position to pursue and accomplish that goal.

During this past year, we also made solid progress toward our second goal of preserving Wrigley Field. Again, thank you for your patience. The new video boards debuted to rave reviews, and the Budweiser Bleachers are back and better than ever with upgraded amenities and new group spaces. This offseason will be just as productive as we work to complete our new state-of-the-art clubhouse and Wrigley Field ticket office. Most importantly, the work you won't necessarily see is the continued replacement of the steel and concrete that will allow Wrigley Field to stand for the next generation of Cubs fans.

In addition to the tremendous progress we made on the field this season, we also made great strides in the community. The generosity of our players, fans, partners and neighbors was felt far beyond the Friendly Confines and helped us further our third goal of being a good neighbor. Our team and Cubs Charities are on track to donate more than $1.5 million this year. Cubs Charities signature programs - Cubs Scholars, Cubs on the Move Fitness Program and the Diamond Project - continued to thrive as we welcomed our third class of scholars, launched an online fitness curriculum available to more than 1 million Chicago kids and awarded nearly $500,000 in grants to improve the quality and safety of local baseball fields.

In 2015, we also saw past contributions come to life as we helped open Margaret Donahue Park and Kerry Wood Cubs Field. These wonderful community assets are enhancing the quality of life in our community and providing local athletes with a place to improve their skills while fostering their love of the game.

It is certainly encouraging to take a minute to look back and celebrate what we were able to accomplish together on and off the field. Now that our 2015 season is in the record books, there is no need to worry about predictions and going "Back to the Future." The future is now. We are ready to carry the momentum into 2016 and continue this special journey with you.

Let's Go Cubs,

Tom Ricketts

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2267
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1728 on: October 30, 2015, 06:36:16 pm »
Thanks Curt...great letter!

Reb

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1729 on: October 30, 2015, 08:36:56 pm »
Cubs absolutely can significantly reduce team Ks---not just at margins. Certainly by 2017.

In 2015:

CF  165 Ks

RF  189  Ks

C   178  Ks

If Cubs choose to trade Soler, these positions are open in 2016/2017. You can reduce each position by 50 Ks. 150 K reduction at these positions. Bryant struck out 199 times---would have been about 210 if didn't miss early April. Think he can easily get down to 170 or less. Russell can reduce too.

Now, you are down to where Pirates are in Ks and maybe 40-50 more Ks than NL average. Absolutely doable if Theo makes an effort.

Reb

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1730 on: October 30, 2015, 08:56:54 pm »
Royals outscored Cubs 724-689.

Over past three seasons, average AL team has outscored average NL team by 42 runs per season. Basically, that's difference of DH in AL and no-DH in NL.

So, Cubs and Royals were similar in scoring runs in regular season---in very different ways, but acored about the same. That's the context. You would, therefore, expect somewhat similar runs scoring in broad categories comprised of many plate appearances. Commin sense.

So, dramatic difference in getting runs in with RISP, 2 outs speaks volumes. Cubs didn't hit too often when they needed to. Not enough contact and not enough runs scoring on batted ball outs. Not enough productive outs.

Nobody is saying Cubs should remake themselves as the Royals. But, can do some things more similar to Royals here and there.

Next question is whether Royals-type offense better suited to post-season. Don't know answer to that but suspect that historically high-K team operating at a disadvantage in post-season.

Guessing that Theo/Hoyer will address this.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18846
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1731 on: October 30, 2015, 09:57:31 pm »
Cubs 2015 OPS .714
0 Outs 179 R .735 OPS
1 Out   236 R .705 OPS
2 Outs  274 R .717
RISP 487 R .714 OPS

Royals .734 OPS
0 Outs 162 Runs .713 OPS
1 Out   261 Runs .714 OPS
2 Outs  301 Runs .776 OPS
RISP  547 Runs .772 OPS

Seems the Royals out performed themselves with 2 outs and RISP. While the Cubs were basically themselves. If you want to draw a conclusion, it is likely the Royals won't be as productive next year.

Looking at how bad the Cubs pitchers and pinch hitters performed last year, I compared the Nationals, DBacks, Padres, and Pirates K numbers for their 1-8 hitters.
Cubs 1288, Nationals 1172, Padres 1122, DBacks 1123. With some improvement from the young kids the Cubs could get awfully close to those numbers.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8857
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1732 on: October 30, 2015, 09:58:28 pm »
Cubs absolutely can significantly reduce team Ks---not just at margins. Certainly by 2017.

In 2015:
CF  165 Ks
RF  189  Ks
C   178  Ks

If Cubs choose to trade Soler, these positions are open in 2016/2017. You can reduce each position by 50 Ks. 150 K reduction at these positions. Bryant struck out 199 times---would have been about 210 if didn't miss early April. Think he can easily get down to 170 or less. Russell can reduce too.

Now, you are down to where Pirates are in Ks and maybe 40-50 more Ks than NL average. Absolutely doable if Theo makes an effort.

So the idea, I take it, is that this is in concert with Contreras at C and Almora at CF, right?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2015, 10:00:38 pm by Ron »

Reb

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1733 on: October 30, 2015, 10:37:50 pm »
just so there is no confusion, CBJ "conveniently" left out how Cubs performed with RISP/2outs. Batted .211, slugged .332, with OPS of .665---all dramatically below other benchmarks. Lot of PAs too:  766. To those who watched the games, we know this was deficient. Not enough good contact.




Reb

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1734 on: October 30, 2015, 10:59:18 pm »
So the idea, I take it, is that this is in concert with Contreras at C and Almora at CF, right?

No, not necessarily.

Let's say, for sake of discussion, Cubs sign Span for CF. He averages 83 Ks per 162 game season of 729 PAs. Cubs had 165 Ks in CF in 2015. That's a reduction of 82 Ks at one position.

Zobrist in a corner OF to replace Soler. That's a reduction of 86 Ks (Zobrist career of 103/per 682 PAs). Heyward would be similar reduction. Cubs had 189 Ks in RF.

That alone gets Cubs way, way down from horrible to below average. Bit of improvement from Bryant/ Russell---closer.

Yes, fewer homers... But better defense.

I suppose possibly could get similar reduction from Contreras and Almora. Let's see what happens at AAA with them. Point is that there is nothing inevitable about the historically high Ks going forward. If you want to do it, you can do it.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4934
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1735 on: October 30, 2015, 11:59:35 pm »
I hate the offseason

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18846
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1736 on: October 31, 2015, 10:37:13 am »
Reb, I don't disagree that the Cubs are going to look to decrease K's. I disagree with you about how meaningful the change is going to be.

Let's say the Cubs bring in 2/3 of Span/Heyward/Zobrist. If I read your numbers correctly that would reduce the Cubs K's by 168. Let's give them a BABIP of .330 on those K's now balls in play. I'll round up and say that will add 56 hits. That would be an extra 0.35 hits/game. With a decrease in HR's it is certainly possible that the Cubs could score less runs. Unless you are going to get the Cubs into Royals/Giants territory of K%, it is just making improvements on the margins.

Another way to look at this is you could give the Cubs a hit/inning (single/double/triple) in every games and increase their hit totals by 1,458 and you wouldn't guareentee the Cubs one extra run without proper sequencing.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2015, 10:46:08 am by CUBluejays »

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5916
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1737 on: October 31, 2015, 12:49:26 pm »
I don't get the idea of spending big bucks on a corner OF.

Schwarber, Baez, Soler, Coghlan, Baez, Bryant... Even if the deal someone for pitching, there are still a million options. Get a CF. See if you can pry away Kimbrel and Cashner from SD. See what you can do on the FA pitching market. Keep your cheap, team-controlled talent in house.

If the Cubs really don't like how one of Soler, Baez, etc., projects, great, trade them and maximize value. But you can do that without making an enormous commitment to a FA OF. I'd be looking to spend money in house on extensions first.

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9236
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1738 on: October 31, 2015, 12:52:55 pm »
I'm not sure about Kimbrel and Cashner, but I pretty much agree with everything else, tico.

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
« Reply #1739 on: October 31, 2015, 12:54:05 pm »
I agree with the first sentence.

I wouldn't take Cashner back for the waiver cost, much less more.

And you trade value for value.  If LA calls and offers Kershaw for Russell, you do it.  Don't get wound up...just an extreme example.