Author Topic: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)  (Read 69459 times)

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2014, 04:32:37 pm »
And I hope the best for Javy as any Cub fan would.

I just wouldnt bet on it.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #31 on: October 02, 2014, 04:34:24 pm »
I am actually less bothered by the cursing than I am by the incoherence.

What in the world was he trying to say?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2014, 10:47:24 am »
Bleacher Nation is reporting that the Phils might be interested in moving Hamels this off season.  I wonder what the asking price will be and Hamels would likely add the Cubs to his no-trade list what his demands will be.  For me, signing Lester is the better option.

ben

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2014, 03:45:10 pm »
Agreed...Lester would just cost BIG money...Hammels from Phils would cost BIG money (not as BIG as Lester's, but big) AND multiple excellent prospects.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2014, 03:58:37 pm »
That makes sense.  I do think Hamels is a better pitcher, though.  Over last five seasons, Hamels has had ERA+ >130 four times, Lester only twice, this year being the first since 2010.  But of course price is kinda significant.  And better past doesn't prove Hamels will be better future, I get that. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2014, 04:23:51 pm »
Hamels doesn't give you much surplus value, though...he's going to be paid what he's worth over the rest of his contract.  So I think that will keep the price down somewhat.  That's especially true if the Cubs and Red Sox are the two primary suitors (as rumored)--neither team is likely to be willing to empty their minor league system for him.

A wild card for the Cubs this offseason is how the front office values Baez at this point.  I don't think he has lost much trade value yet, but I do think he has shown holes big enough that the front office could have serious concerns.  It wouldn't surprise me that much if they were willing to move him with a couple of depth players this offseason for Hamels (or someone else who provides premium value). 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #36 on: October 03, 2014, 04:31:50 pm »
Bleacher Nation was expecting that the Cubs would have to pick up his option making him a 5 year, $110-114 million (multiple various options).  Throw in the prospect cost of one of the big 4+ and that is a huge price.  The difference in production is less than it looks.  Lester and Hamels have mostly been 3-4 fWAR pitchers over their careers.  Hamels has been better, but not enough to make up the difference in prospect costs. 


craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #37 on: October 03, 2014, 04:53:17 pm »
Well then, get them both!  :)  (I have the crazy idea of being willing to leap up into the 19th or even 15th highest payroll in baseball!) 

I agree with your point, though, br.  If you were to build a package centered around Baez, and pad it with, say, Almora and Underwood or whomever, some buyers might really like a package like that. 

I have no idea, of course.  Maybe Theo loves all of our guys hugely; and maybe some potential buyer likes Baez and Almora much less than Theo does.

But there are some trade possibilities that we could put together, depending on how other teams like our guys, that wouldn't exactly cripple the rebuilding plan.  If you had to settle for building your infield with "only" Rizzo, Castro, Bryant, Russell, and Alcantara, that wouldn't exactly be a massive sellout of the rebuilding plan, would it? 

DelMarFan

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2014, 05:03:54 pm »
Quote
I don't think he has lost much trade value yet.

This is what I talk about when I refer to selling low.  I'm not opposed to trading Baez, but not now, because he right smack dab in the middle of the Period of Suckitude Upon Advancing Levels that we had every reason to believe that he would have (and is almost certainly the reason why they brought him up when they did).  Baez's advancement pattern tells us that what we have seen is not what he is going to be, but that doesn't stop us from panicking over every strikeout.  If we're wondering about him, gotta think the guys on the other side of the trade would have reason to not give good value right now.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2014, 05:32:24 pm »
Del, I expect buyers will see it pretty much as you do.  So I don't think trading would be selling low, I think he could be traded fairly.  That there would be some fair-value exchange that made sense for the Cubs, not likely. 


Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2014, 05:36:49 pm »
I like that...the Coming Age of Sucking Upon Advancing Levels...

It's casual...

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2014, 05:50:39 pm »
I have the crazy idea of being willing to leap up into the 19th or even 15th highest payroll in baseball!

Hopefully the front office focuses on getting the team's W/L record to rank much better than it has been, and not so much on pushing the Cubs up higher on the list of highest payrolls in baseball.

If you had to settle for building your infield with "only" Rizzo, Castro, Bryant, Russell, and Alcantara, that wouldn't exactly be a massive sellout of the rebuilding plan, would it?

It depends entirely on whether the Cubs believe Baez can and will make the kind of adjustments in the majors he has previously made after struggles on promotions at each level in the minors.  If they seriously think he can early in 2015 turn around his major league performance to a degree comparable to what he did in AAA, yes, trading him now would be a massive sellout of the rebuilding plan, AND it would be selling low.

Personally, I don't think he is likely to do that, particularly not if he starts the 2015 in the majors instead of starting in AAA to focus on the things the Cubs want him to work on, which would hopefully include improved pitch recognition, plate discipline, and situational hitting.  But I suspect the Theocracy has somewhat better information than I do, a bit better judgment of what he can and can't change and what he needs to do so, and more at stake regarding their decision.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2014, 05:57:09 pm »
Baez's advancement pattern tells us that what we have seen is not what he is going to be, but that doesn't stop us from panicking over every strikeout.

I think some of us are far less concerned with every strikeout, or the aggregate number of strikeouts, than by every time he swings at pitched he can never hit (or even reach) and lays off pitches right down the middle which he should be able to crush.  While it is true that the K's are generally a result of that terrible pitch recognition, it is the seeming complete lack of pitch recognition which is most troubling to me.

I see no "adjustment" he can make which will allow him to adequately resolve that problem.  I an not suggesting he can not more than adequately improve there, but simply that no adjustment in his stance, swing, leg kick, or approach at the plate would seem to begin to address it.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2014, 06:07:30 pm »
I'd much rather sign Lester than trade for Hamels but if we could get him for say Baez, Almora, and Vogelbach Im game.

Kinda like Choi for Lee in essence.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2014, 06:08:28 pm »
But the other side of the "selling low" coin is that a player is just losing value.  There's always the chance that we're seeing the beginning of the struggles that will turn Baez into a bust.  At AA and AAA, he started improving by the time he was around 100 ABs...yeah, it took longer to get all the way back to previous levels, but he didn't take him 229 PA to start making progress.  And he never carried a 40%+ strikeout rate before.

Don't get me wrong...I'm not necessarily advocating a trade, or saying that he shouldn't be traded.  I'm just saying I see him as a wild card.  His struggles have been extreme enough that it wouldn't be surprising to see this front office (who knows him better than anyone) re-evaluate their opinion of him.  And if they thought this (or something anywhere close to this) is the new normal, this would be the time to recoup as much value as possible.