Author Topic: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions Edition 👑👑👑  (Read 101826 times)

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Sharma has the Cubs with legit targets of Verlander, Samardzija and Gray. Bruce Levine is reporting the Tigers are scouting the Cubs as well.

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Not excited about any of those, especially the first 2.

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Samardzija's the anti Arrieta. He doesn't walk anyone and he throws a ton of innings. He'd be a good pickup for the right price. Verlander is going to cost a boatload either in prospects or salary taken on.
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I sure as hell wouldn't mortgage the future to try and win this year based on the way the team is playing.  Any move has to be for the next two seasons, minimum.

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Regardless of their lackluster play so far, I thought with the first place team coming in and Schwarber back from the minors that the Cubs would show up today and battle like hell. Instead, they have played one of their worst games of the year. For whatever reason, it appears they simply don't have that "it" factor they had in spades last year. Can the loss of Fowler and an ancient back-up catcher plus one extra month of play really be to blame for all of this? I really don't know. It is perplexing. The talent on this team seems to be undeniable, yet, not one guy is having a career year or taking a step forward other than Javy and his step forward is more of a baby step. I'm sure the answer isn't a simple one or they would fix it. They seem to have lost their mental edge, competitiveness of the previous 2 seasons, they have been hit with a few more injuries this year than last, they are missing Fowler and his OBP at the top, they have been unlucky on BABIP this year as opposed to last year's historic numbers, other teams are throwing their best at the "World Champions," other teams are jumping on the Cubs in the 1st inning so much it has to drag the offense down thinking "here we go again."  The Cub's schedule was also pretty front loaded this year. They have wrapped up most of the tough part of their schedule now with a home series against the Nats and home and home against the D-backs being the only tough second half matchups left outside of their division. I'm sure I've missed a few contributing factors, but some combination of these and a few more plus 'no 2 seasons are ever the same' has got to explain this. I am at a loss though to wonder how a team can go from so good one year to this the very next year with a bunch of young guys not even in their prime yet. 

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The worrying thing to me is that there's a whiff of having quit on Maddon here, and if that relationship goes sour that's a huge stumbling block for the franchise.
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Reb

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Cubs probably have been unlucky this season in BABIP (.282) but in 2016 (.302) were basically league average (.301). Cubs were higher (.305) in 2015.

To be really excellent, have to have a handful of guys having outstanding seasons and virtually no or few black holes. Can see from all-star consideration, among other things, hardly anybody having outstanding seasons--and a few black holes.

So far. Has happened thru 85 games.

Host of other surprising things have happened around baseball in 2017. Look around.  Nature of the game. Stuff happens. If you go around looking for Cubs clubhouse reasons, "it factor" reasons, scheduling reasons, psychological reasons---probably not going to tell you much.

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Re: Cubs in '17 - Reigning Champions Edition
« Reply #2648 on: July 06, 2017, 05:01:16 pm »
Is it a matter of multiple players not coming close to getting the most out of their ability?  Or multiple players having career years last year who are now playing at their true talent level?  In the former case, the approach would be to work on the team's environment/chemistry.  In the latter case, personnel changes are needed.  The problem is that for young players you don't really know what their steady state talent level is until at least 3-4 ML seasons are under their belts.

Most of us assume that the former is true, and that when whatever is holding them back (hangover, changed chemistry) goes away or is fixed, everything will be fine.  I'm in that camp myself and expect Theo to shake things up in a major way (probably a big SP acquisition involving the trade of a young stud) in the hopes of recreating the spirit of 2016 as well as improving the talent level of the rotation.

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I refused to vote for Bryant. He didn't deserve it.

Reb

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Is it a matter of multiple players not coming close to getting the most out of their ability?  Or multiple players having career years last year who are now playing at their true talent level? 

Those are not really the best options.

Sometimes, guys at the same talent level just don't have the same season one year to the next. It's an unpredictible, non- linear game in the particulars. Actually, that reality is totally expected in baseball---we just don't know in advance the identity or degree. Sometimes, happens in bunches. Part of the game.

Expectations don't necessarily even-out in a given season between expected performance level, under-performance level, and over-performance level. Often, it's just random.

Don't think anyone really understands the game if don't appreciate the randomness of how things can play out. Sure, a guy may play below expectations for a time because of family issues, health issues, other stuff issues---all part of the game.

So, there are no grand explanations most of the time. Yeah, you can lose your two top hitters and two top pitchers all season for injuries--you have a grand explanation! But, more typically, not that neat.

And, it's still 85 games, not a full season.

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After a World Series Championship after 108 years of frustration, you would think the thousands of Cub fans would vote the entire team to the All Star Game.  The fact that they didn't is either an indication that Cub fans are also having post season hangovers OR they are that unhappy with the play this year.

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And Chris is there with a supportive argument for my post.

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And, it's still 85 games, not a full season.

But far enough to conclude my prediction of 107 wins might end up overshooting the mark.