« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 [21] 22 23 ... 283   Go Down

Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171135 times)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 20337
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #300 on: November 11, 2017, 10:22:18 pm »
An open question to the board: why don’t you hear the Cubs connected to Tyler Chatwood more? He seems to be the kind of target they like - a young SP with good stuff who seems readily tweakable. Probably can be had on a 2-3 year deal, and has been far better away from Coors.
Logged

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #301 on: November 11, 2017, 10:40:12 pm »
Yeah, he's under the sonar. 
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26958
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #302 on: November 11, 2017, 10:40:58 pm »
I have the opposite opinion.  I've feel like several Cubs bloggers and reporters are suggesting the Cubs should go after Chatwood, and  I don't know why.  He walks a ton of batters and can't stay healthy.  The Cubs are really good already...they need stability in their two open rotation spots, not a guy who could be good if he'd suddenly stop getting hurt.  They made that mistake with Brett Anderson last year.
Logged

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #303 on: November 11, 2017, 10:46:06 pm »
What?  Brett Anderson was a mistake?  That's heresy.  I never would have said that.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 20337
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #304 on: November 11, 2017, 11:08:37 pm »
I certainly haven't heard all that much chatter about Chatwood, and he's been pretty healthy the last couple of seasons - 300 IP.  27 year-old FA who can average almost 95 as a SP are pretty rare commodities.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26958
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #305 on: November 11, 2017, 11:42:19 pm »
Chatwood was on the DL once this year, and twice in 2016.  And he pitched about 200 innings total in the three years before that.  There is no reason to expect him to stay healthy. 

In four of his six years, he's walked at least 4 batters per 9 IP.  He's walked 4.2  batters per 9 IP in his career.  The most frustrating thing about the Cubs in 2017 was their inability to throw strikes.  They don't need more guys who can't consistently throw strikes.
Logged

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #306 on: November 11, 2017, 11:48:36 pm »
br, compare his splits.  I think pitchers in Denver tend to be too fine, causing more walks.  Chatwood's breaking pitch is better away from Coors, too.  Evaluating a Colorado player or pitcher is full of issues.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26958
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #307 on: November 12, 2017, 12:51:10 am »
Chatwood has still walked about 4 batters per 9 IP away from Coors in his career.  I'm skeptical he's going to improve on his away-from-Coors numbers just because he's no longer pitching half his games at Coors.

Only six pitching staffs had worse BB% than the Cubs this year: Orioles, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Reds, and White Sox.  Those were also 6 of the worst 7 teams in team ERA, and 6 of the worst 10 in fWAR.  In general, pitching staffs that can't throw strikes are bad.  The Cubs really need more strike throwers, and Chatwood doesn't help.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 20337
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #308 on: November 12, 2017, 12:57:18 am »
The Cubs need SP who can get good hitters out (well, they need SP period).  Arrieta wasn't much a strike-thrower before we picked him up and that worked pretty well.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #309 on: November 12, 2017, 07:02:54 am »
Chatwood is super risky. He has had 2 TJS already as BR pointed out he walks a ton of batters and hasn’t to this point struck people out. The positives is that he gets a ton of ground balls and has spin rate on his curve ball that he only threw 10% of the time. His 4 seam fastball also has a high spin rate as well.

He is basically a younger version of Morton, but you have to change the type of pitcher he is and hope is control improves. He is risky. I would like something a little more secure as a fourth starter, but as a fifth starter he would be great.

Chacin is with his slider you could make him into Chris Archer lite. Just have him throw a fastball/slider and let him go 2 times through the order. He doesn’t have Archer’s fastball velocity which is the only draw back.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #310 on: November 12, 2017, 07:12:12 am »
A high spin rate on breaking balls = nasty breaking pitches, more movement and sharper break. A high spin rate on a four seam= less drop or what appears to be a rising fastball. A sinker you want to have a low spin rate. A change up depends on what you want out of it.  A high spin rate change would have more velocity and less movement. A low spin rate change would have more movement and less velocity.
Logged

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29618
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #311 on: November 12, 2017, 09:34:22 am »
How effective was Darryl Kile's curveball in Denver compared to St. Louis?  My recollection is that he became Cy Young in St. Louis.  Could explain why Chatwood doesn't throw the curve much in Colorado.  Sucker doesn't break.  Hangs and goes out.  The Coors effect on both hitters and pitchers is dramatic.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 20337
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #312 on: November 12, 2017, 10:54:36 am »
Chatwood's upside seriously undersold here.  Fortunately I'm pretty confident Theo doesn't read this board.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #313 on: November 12, 2017, 11:04:03 am »
His stated reason was that he didn’t have a feel for the pitch surgery, but it usually had less vertical movement in Colorado. It looks like he tried throwing it more in August and it wasn’t a great month for him.
Logged

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26958
Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #314 on: November 12, 2017, 12:11:47 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on November 12, 2017, 10:54:36 am
Chatwood's upside seriously undersold here.  Fortunately I'm pretty confident Theo doesn't read this board.

I don't think anyone is underselling his upside.  He clearly has a lot of upside.  I think what is being undersold here is his downside.  It wouldn't be shocking if he broke out and became a legitimate TOR pitcher.  But the more likely outcome is that he'll hurt his arm, or he'll regularly struggle to go beyond 5 innings because he racks up a huge pitch count.

I think Chatwood would be a really good risk for a team like the Orioles or Padres, who need a ton of pitching and need to hit on a couple upside players to have any chance to compete in 2018.  But I'd rather see the Cubs be more conservative.  They're going to be favorites in the division no matter who they have in the back two spots in the rotation, so my preference would be for a couple guys with lower upside but high likelihood of being 2-3 WAR pitchers who eat at least 150-170 innings.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 [21] 22 23 ... 283   Go Up
« previous next »