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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171174 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3555 on: August 15, 2018, 07:28:23 pm »
Does it say he's going back in time three years?
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3556 on: August 15, 2018, 07:39:32 pm »
According to this board no matter how good Lester does he still sucks and no matter how much Hendricks sucks he's still good.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3557 on: August 15, 2018, 07:46:30 pm »
Tony Andracki
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 8h8 hours ago
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Maddon revealed what HE said to home plate ump Phil Cuzzi yesterday:

"Do you realize *Ben Zobrist* is arguing with you right now? That's gotta be a bad feeling."
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3558 on: August 15, 2018, 07:46:59 pm »
I’m hopeful Quintana will figure it out next spring. Lester is probably a #4/#5 going forward, but he earned his contract already.

I agree that 2015-16 Hendricks isn’t coming back. But he’s still been about a #2 if you remove the first inning this year, so it seems like there has to be an adjustment he could make to really improve his overall results. Maybe he did something different today—that was easily the best first inning I can remember for him this year.

If Hendricks finishes strong, the Cubs would be smart to explore trades in the offseason. His reputation probably exceeds his performance going forward, and there’s just not much margin for error there.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3559 on: August 15, 2018, 07:53:07 pm »
I've never been a fan of "if you remove the first inning" type theoreticals.  The numbers are what they are.  All the innings count.

Hendricks has a 4.26 FIP and 3.89 xFIP, and those numbers aren't far out of line with last year.  He has outperfrormed his FIP stats for his career, so maybe you assume he's good enough at the "intangibles" side of pitching to do that consistently, but not enough to be a #2 type starter.  He and Lester and both probably #4s at this point, maybe optimistically one of them can pitch like a #3 the rest of the way.  Maybe Lester can get an adrenaline rush and ride his red-ass nature to a good postseason, if his tank has anything left in it.  As for Quintana, he's a complete wildcard.  Again, Darvish coming back and pitching like a TORP is really the key to any long postseason run.  It may not be likely, but if he's actually healthy he'll have a month to tune up before the playoffs, and go in with the freshest arm in the rotation.  I'd certainly bet on him doing it over Lester, Hendricks or Quintana.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3560 on: August 15, 2018, 08:02:50 pm »
The numbers are what they are, sure. He’s been a weak #3/good #4 this year overall. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t change that with an adjustment. The performance in the first inning is so out of line with everything else that the logical conclusion is he’s just not ready to pitch when he comes into the game...and that’s something that could hypothetically be changed with a different pre-game routine.

I think we’re on the same page on Hendricks’ value going forward—I still think Doug Fister’s career is a strong comp, and he cratered at about Hendricks’ age. But I still think it’s easy to see how he could be a strong part of the rotation the rest of the year. I don’t think there’s much hope for 2018 versions of Lester and Quintana.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3561 on: August 15, 2018, 08:16:34 pm »
Thats why Monty starting in the postseason should be very much on the table.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3562 on: August 15, 2018, 08:25:06 pm »
Agreed. If the postseason started tomorrow, the top three should be Hamels/Montgomery/Hendricks. And game 4 would probably be best as a bullpen day. Darvish coming back strong would be huge.

I really hope Smyly comes off the DL strong enough for Joe to count on him in the postseason. That would take away some of the temptation to automatically put Montgomery in the bullpen in October.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3563 on: August 15, 2018, 09:00:31 pm »
You know there's absolutely no way Lester isn't starting in the postseason (probably game 1), no matter what he does the last six weeks.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3564 on: August 15, 2018, 09:12:00 pm »
Realistically, you're right. Hamels could take the game 1 start if he continues to mimic 2017 Verlander. Maybe Hendricks could take it too if he really gets on a roll down the stretch. Barring injury, though, it's a lock that Lester starts one of the first three games.

That's assuming they make the postseason, of course. With their September schedule, that's far from guaranteed if they fail to build a bigger lead the rest of August.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3565 on: August 16, 2018, 12:10:22 pm »
Cerami is much more positive re Hendricks that most of the posters here:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/16/kyle-hendricks-seems-to-have-figured-it-out/
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3566 on: August 16, 2018, 12:46:58 pm »
Thanks for the link, playtwo. Some interesting and encouraging data there.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3567 on: August 16, 2018, 12:48:20 pm »
I'm not sure I fully tracked the start of that article.  I think it was talking about Quintana's game against Kansas City, not two starts ago in which he got killed very early. 

But yeah, I though that was really good on Hendricks.  Cerami used Hendricks last 8 starts, 2.7 FIP, terrific K/BB, and all the soft-contact and groundball stuff and all that has been really good.  I thought he pitched REALLY well yesterday, it seemed like he was totally in command and there was no hard contact or anything for 3.2.... then suddenly a hit and a couple of hard-hit balls were clustered and they got two runs.  Total command in 5th and 6th too.  Previous game vs Washington, he also seemed really good. 

Think he struggled a lot earlier on.  But he's been pitching very well lately.

Think it's a very different landscape with Q.  His stuff to me just looks so vulnerable, and his curveball command not consistent enough.  (Both Braun HR's on Tues were terrible hanging curveballs.)  Think it's kind of the life of a struggling curveball guy.  Hanging curves are even more HR-vulnerable than misplaced fastballs.  And curves are hard to control consistently, so on days when his curve isn't sharp, he doesn't have enough ammo to work with. 

But if Hendricks can lock in the way he's been throwing lately, with some offense and relief I think they could win a lot of his starts. 

I get the Hendricks bit with the skeptics, though.  He can be having a really sharp game like yesterday, but of course the margin is thin, so if he loses his edge even for a moment maybe what looked like a "cruise" game is suddenly a couple runs and it's all different. 

But if playoffs were now, no question he'd be near the front of the rotation. 
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3568 on: August 16, 2018, 04:07:36 pm »
Hamels is for me the unquestioned number 1 if the playoffs started today.

As for Quintana, as tough as it is to do so mid-season, I wish he’d bring back his cutter.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3569 on: August 16, 2018, 05:49:18 pm »
Darvish to start somewhere Sunday, location TBA.
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