Bleacher Bums Forum

Fangraphs has the Cubs with a 77.7% chance to win the division. That seems high, and if you take every remaining game as a coin flip, the Cubs have a 42/64 chance to win the division outright, a 15/64 chance of finishing tied (so a 7.5/64 chance of winning a one-game playoff),  and a 7/64 chance of ending up behind Milwaukee without a playoff.  So 49.5/64, or 77.3%, of being division champions.

But we're playing a fearsome team battling for their postseason lives and out to get us, whereas the Brewers are up against a tail ender with little to play for. Fangraphs giving us better odds than pure luck would is a blog surprise -- or they think our exhausted, injury plagued team really can get it done.