Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171514 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3300 on: July 27, 2018, 12:26:12 pm »
Heh.  If I remember correctly, it was the Rangers who outbid us for him back when.  Is that right?

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3301 on: July 27, 2018, 12:45:53 pm »
The Rangers are paying $2 million of his salary.  If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out.  If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.

FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele.  I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 01:03:29 pm by CUBluejays »

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3302 on: July 27, 2018, 01:41:05 pm »
Cole Hamels has always worn #35.   That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3303 on: July 27, 2018, 01:49:09 pm »
Cole Hamels has always worn #35.   That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.

Lester better ask for something good in return then.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3304 on: July 27, 2018, 02:01:14 pm »
Lester has both 34 and 35?
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3305 on: July 27, 2018, 02:02:25 pm »
FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele.  I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.

That would be disappointing.  There have been very few bright spots on the farm this year, but Steele looking good in his rehab is one of them. 

Officially anyway, the PTBNL will come from a predetermined list of pitchers and position players.

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Jeff Wilson

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@JeffWilson_FWST
 2h2 hours ago

#Rangers will select player to be named in Cole Hamels trade in a few weeks from a predetermined list of minor-leaguers, Jon Daniels said. List includes pitchers and position players.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3306 on: July 27, 2018, 02:07:33 pm »
I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy.  Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3307 on: July 27, 2018, 02:13:12 pm »
Quote
If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out.  If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.

By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is?  No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.

About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong.  Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3308 on: July 27, 2018, 02:48:43 pm »
I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy.  Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.

PTBNL in trades like this often are determined in part based on how well the named player or players do.  Hamels does well, and TX picks from list A made up of a few decent prospects.  Hamels stinks and they pick from list B which is made up of guys the Theocracy might be considering giving their releases to right now.

Appears to be little more than a salary dump, with Hamels not likely to produce anything more than league average pitching.... but even league average would be better than what they have been getting from the 5th spot and should help win a couple more games with the Cubs' lineup.  Hamels is not really likely to play a role in the post season rotation, but he is insurance in case another starter is lost, and if he is just good enough as a starter to reduce wear on the bullpen, then could be of serious value during the playoffs.

Looks like a good move for both teams.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3309 on: July 27, 2018, 03:30:39 pm »
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs   23m23 minutes ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Alec Mills from @IowaCubs.

Because Hamels won't arrive in St. Louis until Saturday.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3310 on: July 27, 2018, 04:24:42 pm »
I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy.  Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.

Steele and Marquez are the only 2 lefties in the org that throw hard.  I hate trading on of them.

By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is?  No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.

About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong.  Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.

That made me think that Steele couldn't be the return, because being able to get him for Chatwood's salaray would be a possible benefit.  He might be cheaper on the open market though.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3311 on: July 27, 2018, 04:25:13 pm »
Gordon Wittenmyer  @GDubCub   17m17 minutes ago
Darvish said he felt some pain early in today's 23-pitch pen session but adjusted delivery to more like he threw early in season and was fine. Stressed he's not concerned and expects one more pen before possible sim game.

Kelly Crull  @Kelly_Crull   20m20 minutes ago
Darvish believes he took a positive  step forward after throwing 23 pitches in today’s bulllpen. Made an adjustment in his take back & felt no pain. Is excited about throwing again soon.




In other words, his return is still very much up in the air.


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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3312 on: July 27, 2018, 04:31:44 pm »
I actually think that is a positive report. 
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3313 on: July 27, 2018, 04:41:13 pm »
No comment.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3314 on: July 27, 2018, 05:18:03 pm »
2013-2014 his ERA was better that his FIP/xFIP

2015 he was just excellent, 3.23/2.90/3.01.

2016-2018 has been the real underperformance.

Forget about actual performance, and forget about the fact that this is a guy you have been arguing to get for years now, but just focus on the three time periods:  2013-2014 is time period A; 2015 is time period B; 2016-2018 is time period C.

It is now the middle of 2018.

Which one is most likely most predictive of future performance? A, B or C?

Hard to image how in abstraction you would weight A or B more heavily than C.